AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
937 AM MDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...ADDED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WEST ELK AND SAWATCH                     
MOUNTAINS AND THE GRAND MESA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                    
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THIS MORNINGS PRECIP COVERED. IT HAS THE COLD             
FRONT WELL POSITIONED...BETWEEN PUC AND CNY AND EXTENDED ENE THROUGH            
NW CO. IT ALL PAINTS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA WITH ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS. AS THE FRONT             
MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N AND COLD               
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.           
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET...            
THOUGH GFS AND NAM BOTH HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THE FRONT MAY HANG UP           
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS AND JUST WASH OUT THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW           
ADVYS THRU TODAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO            
DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR           
CORNERS THIS MORNING.                                                           
 GFS AND NAM BOTH ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND              
TUE MORNING. THEN AS NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER           
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUE                 
AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.                                                        
KEPT TEMPS NEARER TO THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE               
TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM TEMP BEING TOO COOL.                     
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                        
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN THE                   
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH SCHEDULED FOR WED/THU. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED             
MORE NORTHERLY WITH LESS OF A SPLIT...AND THE GFS IS A JUST A                   
TAD MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN POSITION             
TO SEE A GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING            
ON WED.                                                                         
THE DAY BEGINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                     
A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS             
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY REGIME WILL FAVOR                    
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD           
NEAR THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TIMED TO BE OVER FAR           
WESTERN CO AT AROUND 00Z THU...WITH THE EC NOW JUST A LITTLE BEHIND             
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM 8KFT IN                 
THE AFTERNOON TO 5500-6000FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT WED               
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF                  
DIFLUENCE OVER EASTERN UT WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY EARLY THU               
MORNING. THEN THE UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER SUPPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AS THE COLD           
CORE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY            
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE FAR WEST WILL SEE ACTIVITY             
DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DRYING MOVING FROM WEST TO           
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE SNOW              
LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND 6500-7000FT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWER               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
FRIDAY: SEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT                  
SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                  
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS                     
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. NUDGED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT BUT MAY STILL NEED TO             
BE WARMED. LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND UTAH AS               
ANOTHER LATE WINTER STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED HEAVIER             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED...WITH CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST           
CO MTS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS            
       AND PLATEAUS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 2/3/4/5/9/10/             
       12 AND 13.                                                               
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND EASTERN              
       UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 25 AND 23.             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CJC/NL                                                             
LONG TERM....EH                                                                 
AVIATION.....CJC                                                                
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
928 AM MDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...ADDED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WEST ELK AND SAWATCH                     
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                    
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THIS MORNINGS PRECIP COVERED. IT HAS THE COLD             
FRONT WELL POSITIONED...BETWEEN PUC AND CNY AND EXTENDED ENE THROUGH            
NW CO. IT ALL PAINTS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA WITH ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS. AS THE FRONT             
MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N AND COLD               
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.           
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET...            
THOUGH GFS AND NAM BOTH HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THE FRONT MAY HANG UP           
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS AND JUST WASH OUT THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW           
ADVYS THRU TODAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO            
DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR           
CORNERS THIS MORNING.                                                           
 GFS AND NAM BOTH ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND              
TUE MORNING. THEN AS NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER           
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUE                 
AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.                                                        
KEPT TEMPS NEARER TO THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE               
TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM TEMP BEING TOO COOL.                     
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                        
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN THE                   
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH SCHEDULED FOR WED/THU. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED             
MORE NORTHERLY WITH LESS OF A SPLIT...AND THE GFS IS A JUST A                   
TAD MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN POSITION             
TO SEE A GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING            
ON WED.                                                                         
THE DAY BEGINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                     
A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS             
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY REGIME WILL FAVOR                    
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD           
NEAR THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TIMED TO BE OVER FAR           
WESTERN CO AT AROUND 00Z THU...WITH THE EC NOW JUST A LITTLE BEHIND             
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM 8KFT IN                 
THE AFTERNOON TO 5500-6000FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT WED               
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF                  
DIFLUENCE OVER EASTERN UT WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY EARLY THU               
MORNING. THEN THE UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER SUPPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AS THE COLD           
CORE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY            
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE FAR WEST WILL SEE ACTIVITY             
DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DRYING MOVING FROM WEST TO           
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE SNOW              
LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND 6500-7000FT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWER               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
FRIDAY: SEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT                  
SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                  
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS                     
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. NUDGED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT BUT MAY STILL NEED TO             
BE WARMED. LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND UTAH AS               
ANOTHER LATE WINTER STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED HEAVIER             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED...WITH CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST           
CO MTS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS            
       AND PLATEAUS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 2/3/4/5/10/               
       12 AND 13.                                                               
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND EASTERN              
       UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 25 AND 23.             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CJC/NL                                                             
LONG TERM....EH                                                                 
AVIATION.....CJC                                                                
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
827 AM MDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...ADDED HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER                 
BASIN SOUTH OF CRAIG.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                    
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THIS MORNINGS PRECIP COVERED. IT HAS THE COLD             
FRONT WELL POSITIONED...BETWEEN PUC AND CNY AND EXTENDED ENE THROUGH            
NW CO. IT ALL PAINTS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA WITH ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS. AS THE FRONT             
MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N AND COLD               
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.           
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET...            
THOUGH GFS AND NAM BOTH HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THE FRONT MAY HANG UP           
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS AND JUST WASH OUT THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW           
ADVYS THRU TODAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO            
DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR           
CORNERS THIS MORNING.                                                           
 GFS AND NAM BOTH ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND              
TUE MORNING. THEN AS NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER           
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUE                 
AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.                                                        
KEPT TEMPS NEARER TO THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE               
TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM TEMP BEING TOO COOL.                     
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                        
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN THE                   
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH SCHEDULED FOR WED/THU. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED             
MORE NORTHERLY WITH LESS OF A SPLIT...AND THE GFS IS A JUST A                   
TAD MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN POSITION             
TO SEE A GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING            
ON WED.                                                                         
THE DAY BEGINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                     
A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS             
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY REGIME WILL FAVOR                    
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD           
NEAR THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TIMED TO BE OVER FAR           
WESTERN CO AT AROUND 00Z THU...WITH THE EC NOW JUST A LITTLE BEHIND             
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM 8KFT IN                 
THE AFTERNOON TO 5500-6000FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT WED               
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF                  
DIFLUENCE OVER EASTERN UT WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY EARLY THU               
MORNING. THEN THE UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER SUPPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AS THE COLD           
CORE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY            
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE FAR WEST WILL SEE ACTIVITY             
DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DRYING MOVING FROM WEST TO           
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE SNOW              
LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND 6500-7000FT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWER               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
FRIDAY: SEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT                  
SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                  
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS                     
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. NUDGED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT BUT MAY STILL NEED TO             
BE WARMED. LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND UTAH AS               
ANOTHER LATE WINTER STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED HEAVIER             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED...WITH CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST           
CO MTS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAUS           
        THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 2/3/4/5/10/13.                        
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND EASTERN              
       UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 25 AND 23.             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CJC/NL                                                             
LONG TERM....EH                                                                 
AVIATION.....CJC                                                                
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
755 AM MDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...ADDED SNOW ADVISORY TO THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                    
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THIS MORNINGS PRECIP COVERED. IT HAS THE COLD             
FRONT WELL POSITIONED...BETWEEN PUC AND CNY AND EXTENDED ENE THROUGH            
NW CO. IT ALL PAINTS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA WITH ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS. AS THE FRONT             
MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N AND COLD               
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.           
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET...            
THOUGH GFS AND NAM BOTH HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THE FRONT MAY HANG UP           
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS AND JUST WASH OUT THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW           
ADVYS THRU TODAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO            
DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR           
CORNERS THIS MORNING.                                                           
 GFS AND NAM BOTH ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND              
TUE MORNING. THEN AS NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER           
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUE                 
AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.                                                        
KEPT TEMPS NEARER TO THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE               
TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM TEMP BEING TOO COOL.                     
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                        
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN THE                   
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH SCHEDULED FOR WED/THU. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED             
MORE NORTHERLY WITH LESS OF A SPLIT...AND THE GFS IS A JUST A                   
TAD MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN POSITION             
TO SEE A GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING            
ON WED.                                                                         
THE DAY BEGINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                     
A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS             
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY REGIME WILL FAVOR                    
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD           
NEAR THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TIMED TO BE OVER FAR           
WESTERN CO AT AROUND 00Z THU...WITH THE EC NOW JUST A LITTLE BEHIND             
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM 8KFT IN                 
THE AFTERNOON TO 5500-6000FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT WED               
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF                  
DIFLUENCE OVER EASTERN UT WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY EARLY THU               
MORNING. THEN THE UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER SUPPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AS THE COLD           
CORE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY            
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE FAR WEST WILL SEE ACTIVITY             
DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DRYING MOVING FROM WEST TO           
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE SNOW              
LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND 6500-7000FT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWER               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
FRIDAY: SEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT                  
SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                  
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS                     
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. NUDGED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT BUT MAY STILL NEED TO             
BE WARMED. LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND UTAH AS               
ANOTHER LATE WINTER STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED HEAVIER             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED...WITH CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST           
CO MTS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAUS           
        THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 3/4/5/10/13.                          
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND EASTERN              
       UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 25 AND 23.             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CJC/NL                                                             
LONG TERM....EH                                                                 
AVIATION.....CJC                                                                
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
311 AM MDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                    
THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THIS MORNINGS PRECIP COVERED. IT HAS THE COLD             
FRONT WELL POSITIONED...BETWEEN PUC AND CNY AND EXTENDED ENE THROUGH            
NW CO. IT ALL PAINTS PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA WITH ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS. AS THE FRONT             
MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N AND COLD               
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.           
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET...            
THOUGH GFS AND NAM BOTH HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THE FRONT MAY HANG UP           
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS AND JUST WASH OUT THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW           
ADVYS THRU TODAY. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO            
DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR           
CORNERS THIS MORNING.                                                           
 GFS AND NAM BOTH ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND              
TUE MORNING. THEN AS NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER           
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUE                 
AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.                                                        
KEPT TEMPS NEARER TO THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS BEEN THE               
TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE NAM TEMP BEING TOO COOL.                     
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                        
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN THE                   
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH SCHEDULED FOR WED/THU. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED             
MORE NORTHERLY WITH LESS OF A SPLIT...AND THE GFS IS A JUST A                   
TAD MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN POSITION             
TO SEE A GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING            
ON WED.                                                                         
THE DAY BEGINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                     
A SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS             
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY REGIME WILL FAVOR                    
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD           
NEAR THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TIMED TO BE OVER FAR           
WESTERN CO AT AROUND 00Z THU...WITH THE EC NOW JUST A LITTLE BEHIND             
THE GFS. IN ANY CASE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM 8KFT IN                 
THE AFTERNOON TO 5500-6000FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT WED               
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF                  
DIFLUENCE OVER EASTERN UT WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BY EARLY THU               
MORNING. THEN THE UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER SUPPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AS THE COLD           
CORE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY            
FOR FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE FAR WEST WILL SEE ACTIVITY             
DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH DRYING MOVING FROM WEST TO           
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE SNOW              
LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND 6500-7000FT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN LOWER               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
FRIDAY: SEASONABLY COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT                  
SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MTNS.                                                  
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: DRY AND WARM AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS                     
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. NUDGED TEMPS UPWARD A BIT BUT MAY STILL NEED TO             
BE WARMED. LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEEKEND.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND UTAH AS               
ANOTHER LATE WINTER STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED HEAVIER             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED...WITH CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST           
CO MTS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAUS           
        FROM 9 PM MDT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 3/4/10/13.              
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND EASTERN              
       UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...ZONES 25 AND 23.             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CJC                                                                
LONG TERM....EH                                                                 
AVIATION.....CJC                                                                
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
230 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER WESTERN            
COLORADO AHD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE              
RIDGE OVER THE CWFA WITH MID LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION PROGGED IN THE              
MTNS OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH SNOWFALL THERE TONIGHT...BUT            
WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCHES.  SWLY WINDS WL FAVOR ZONE 31 FOR HIGHEST               
AMTS.  ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ALG THE                 
URBAN CORRIDOR BUT DROP THEM FURTHER E THROUGH THIS EVNG.  WL SIDE              
WITH THE DRIER RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN INTRODUCE PCPN              
INTO THE GRIDS.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING QG VERTICAL                     
VELOCITIES OVERNIGHT...BUT STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
INCOMING TROF WL OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION DVLPS.                 
ALTHO BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH THE TROF THE WINDS             
ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN THE SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS.  STRONGEST            
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT IS REFLECTED IN THE NAM WITH SNOW MDL YIELDING             
3-7 INCHES ON MONDAY.  COULD BE MORE WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.             
SOUNDINGS IN THE MTNS SHOW CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG MONDAY AFTN SO                 
THREW SOME ISOLD THUNDER IN THE MTNS AS WELL.  SOME SORT OF ADVSY               
MAY BE NEEDED BUT WL HOLD OFF ISSUING ONE AT THIS POINT.  ACROSS THE            
NERN FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR ...LOW LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL FAVOR            
BDR AND LARIMER COUNTIES SO HEDGED THE HIGHEST POPS FURTHER N.                  
THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MRNG BUT INTERACTIVE                 
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SNOW LEVEL WL BE AROUND 6K FT BY THE AFTN...SO               
WENT WITH JUST RAIN AT THAT TIME.  LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION              
EXPECTED IN THE MRNG.  ALL MDLS SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF MSTR OVER THE            
AREA BY MONDAY AFTN SO OPTED FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS IN MOST                  
AREA.  SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY BE DRIER.                              
.LONG TERM...ACTIVE PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF             
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING OVER PARTS OF             
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING TO START OFF THIS PERIOD. MODELS               
ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WAVE AND THUS A LITTLE SLOWER. THEY              
SHOW THE WAVE INTENSIFYING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA              
AND EASTERN WYOMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL UP POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOR            
THIS AND KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.                       
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY               
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. IN THE MEANTIME...A BROAD UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST INTO              
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                   
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN             
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY            
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING TO THE WEST.             
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH NEARS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND                
LIFT OVER THE AREA. MODELS AGREE WITH THE TIMING OFF THE TROUGH AXIS            
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES                 
SHOWING UP WITH THE MODELS THURSDAY ON HOW MUCH THE TROUGH                      
STRENGTHENS ONCE IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE                     
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE                    
FORECAST.                                                                       
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH THE MODELS             
INDICATING AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT               
SIDE. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HIGHS                
WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE               
FORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT.  THERE MAY AGAIN BE           
SOME WEAK CU BUILDUPS LATE THIS AFTN BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE AS            
BIG AN ISSUE AS YDA.  SHUD SEE CHC OF LGT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DVLPG            
TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EVEN IN THE GRASSY              
AREAS.  SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 6000 FT SO MOST PCPN SHUD BE            
IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON MONDAY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
COOPER/MEIER                                                                    
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
530 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
...UPDATED TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT/9 AM CDT...            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THREE AREAS OF DISTURBED            
WEATHER IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.                
FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE                   
PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES             
AND ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC            
NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME WE SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE                   
PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR SUNDAYS SHOWERS/RAIN ALONG THE COAST/EASTERN FLORIDA            
BIG BEND. SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND MORE ZONAL FLOW IS             
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AND WILL BE WITH US FOR               
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST                 
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOWLY                     
BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
BEGINNING TO SEE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN INTO THE                   
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE RISES FROM CENTRAL GA            
NORTHWARD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING                  
SHORTWAVE AREA QUICKLY EXITING EAST AS WELL. BEHIND THE CLOUDS                  
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OVERTOP THE STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS                     
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG. THIS STRATUS              
IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AND APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN              
THEIR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES                   
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S REGIONWIDE.                               
THE FOG IS BECOMING QUITE DENSE IN SPOTS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS            
DENSE FOG IS NOW ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL EXPECT            
VISIBILITIES TO LOCALLY FALL TO 1/4MILE OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL            
HOURS MAKING THE MORNING COMMUTE MORE DIFFICULT IN SPOTS. THE DENSE             
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT/9 AM CDT.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE               
CAROLINAS/NORTHERN GA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS ZONAL FLOW                  
MATERIALIZES ALOFT ALONG THE GULF COAST. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING A WEAK            
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GOMEX               
THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH            
SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. AS THE WEDGE HIGH                
BUILDS SOUTH...SOMEWHAT DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER              
IN. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST                   
THROUGH THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE THE SURFACE RIDGE. NAME THE MODEL                
PACKAGE...GFS/NAM/SREF/EC...AND ALL ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW                
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (MAINLY OVER OUR GA ZONES) WITH THE LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.             
WITH THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE QPF FIELDS BEING                 
GENERATED CERTAINLY SEEM OVERDONE. HOWEVER...IN RESPECT TO THE                  
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SOLUTIONS WILL ALLOW A VERY SLIGHT 15% POP OVER OUR            
NORTHERN ZONES WITH A SILENT 10% OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.                
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITHOUT GIVING             
THE IMPRESSION OF A WET DAY (SINCE IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE). IF                
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE                    
TONIGHT THAN WILL UPDATE TO A SLIGHT 20-25% POP...BUT FEEL THIS IS              
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF             
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES (MAINLY GA)             
WHICH IS OFTEN A DIFFICULT FORECAST FIELD WITH THESE WEDGE SURFACE              
RIDGES. WILL GO ON THE "CONSERVATIVE" SIDE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
ACROSS MOST OF OUR GA ZONES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING SKIES GIVING              
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. NAM/GFS RH FIELDS ARE NOT                 
PICKING UP ON THE LOWER CLOUD POTENTIAL YET...BUT LOWER/MIDDLE LEVEL            
MOISTURE IS OFTEN A POORLY FORECAST FIELD BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN              
THESE SITUATIONS. THE LAST WEDGE THAT BUILT IN EARLIER LAST WEEK                
RESULTED IN SOME EXTENSIVE AND STUBBORN CLOUDS FROM AROUND KABY TO              
TIFTON TO JUST NORTH OF VALDOSTA. THESE CLOUDS OFTEN RESULT IN A                
SIGNIFICANT COOLER DAY THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY               
ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE CASE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE            
ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST.                
WILL SHOW A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE                
FROM AROUND KABY TO KVLD WITH ONLY LOWER 70S FOR OUR FAR NORTHEAST              
ZONES. IF THE WEDGE REALLY TAKES CONTROL...THEN EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY            
BE A BIT OVERDONE AND THE TEMP GRADIENT WILL NEED TO BE PUSHED A BIT            
FURTHER SOUTHWEST.                                                              
SURFACE HIGH IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.            
LOOKING FOR A DRY FORECAST WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL THROUGH A DEEP               
LAYER OF THE TROP. MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT DURING              
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SAME FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE               
POTENTIAL FOR STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS.            
LIKELY WILL SEE ANY LOW STRATUS EXPAND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF                
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN BURN OFF DURING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS                
NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER                  
DECENT TEMP GRADIENT WITH NEAR 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR OUR                   
SOUTH/WESTERN ZONES RANGING TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FURTHER NORTH               
AND EAST. AGAIN TRIED TO ANTICIPATE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY LOWER            
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL.                          
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY IN                   
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BRIEFLY AND ALLOW FLOW TO COME AROUND              
TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A DRY DAY WITH                 
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 80 OR A BIT BETTER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE             
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. GFS/SREF SHOWING             
THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PANHANDLE RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON             
SHOWERS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. UNDERCUT THE 30-40% POPS                
ADVERTISED BY MAV/SREF GUIDANCE AS ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE                   
SUPPORT FROM ABOVE FOR LIFT. GOING WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A BRIEF                
SHOWER/TSHOWER OVER THESE WESTERN ZONES...BUT AT THIS POINT                     
WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL END UP A FAIRLY PLEASANT SPRING DAY.                     
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TIGHTENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE                
SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL                    
DYNAMICS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. SO...AFTER ANY EVENING SHOWERS             
DIMINISH OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE ON            
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE NE GULF            
AND WRN ATLC WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY AND SURFACE HIGH ALONG OR             
JUST OFF NE FL COAST...A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY FCST WILL OPEN THE              
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF               
NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM.                                                         
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE BEGINNING FRIDAY WHILE              
N-S VORTLOBE MOVES ACROSS SE CONUS SAT. AT SURFACE... SHORTWAVE                 
HELPS TO DEFINE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN N TX WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING            
SWD IN MEX BY 12Z THURS. LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY N/NE TO GREAT LAKES BY               
12Z FRI WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS ALA AND PARENT FRONT THRU WRN              
TENN-ERN ARK...ERN MOST TX. GFS SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION                  
MOVING ACROSS LOCAL AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH FRONT MOVING                  
ACROSS EARLY SAT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY NW               
FLOW THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY EVE OR EARLY MON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK BAND               
MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE. 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON THIS FRONTAL                 
TIMING WITH CONVECTION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING            
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SATURDAY. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WILL STAY WITH             
THE GFS SOLUTION...HOWEVER TIMING OF FRONT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED              
BACK IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY SINCE LATEST 00Z                  
CANADIAN IS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.               
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE CLIMO...WITH               
INLAND HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S THRU FRI...THEN               
DROP TO MID-UPPER 70S SAT AND LOW-MID 70S SUNDAY BEFORE RISING UP TO            
CLIMO AGAIN ON MONDAY. INLAND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...              
OR IN LOW 60S THRU SAT THEN IN WAKE OF FRONT DROP MID 40S SUN AND               
MID-UPPER 40S MON MORNING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ARE                  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE                  
PRESENT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR                   
IMAGERY. LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR VIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND                
ALREADY OCCURRING AT DHN...VLD...TLH...ABY. PFN LIKELY TO ALSO GET              
THE LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE VSBY NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE AS LOW.             
AFT 14-15Z FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH VFR CEILINGS                
AROUND 4 KFT UNTIL AROUND 20Z. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR KABY TO KVLD              
AS LOWER LEVEL STRATUS MAY ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION            
OF THE DAY. ANY LOWER LEVEL (MVFR/IFR) STRATUS FROM KABY TO KVLD IS             
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO                 
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE               
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN.            
THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                
EXPECT INCREASING FLOW FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT            
WITH ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES WHICH ARE COMMON IN THESE                 
SETUPS. WINDS AND SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH CAUTION LEVELS...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY                  
DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES              
EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE              
WELL TO OUR WEST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL DAYS TO RESULT IN RH VALUES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.              
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  81  59  80  59  81 /  10  10   0   0  10                           
PANAMA CITY  79  62  77  64  77 /  10  10   0  10  20                           
DOTHAN       80  59  77  60  80 /  10  10   0  10  20                           
ALBANY       77  57  75  58  80 /  20  10   0   0  10                           
VALDOSTA     80  57  77  55  82 /  20  10   0   0  10                           
CROSS CITY   82  57  81  57  82 /  10  10   0   0  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT.                               
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT.                              
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT/9 AM CDT.                     
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOCK                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...BLOCK/MROCZKA                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THREE AREAS OF DISTURBED            
WEATHER IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.                
FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE                   
PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES             
AND ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC            
NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME WE SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE                   
PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR SUNDAYS SHOWERS/RAIN ALONG THE COAST/EASTERN FLORIDA            
BIG BEND. SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING AND MORE ZONAL FLOW IS             
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AND WILL BE WITH US FOR               
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST                 
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOWLY                     
BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                     
BEGINNING TO SEE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN INTO THE                   
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH FAIRLY RAPID PRESSURE RISES FROM CENTRAL GA            
NORTHWARD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING                  
SHORTWAVE AREA QUICKLY EXITING EAST AS WELL. BEHIND THE CLOUDS                  
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OVERTOP THE STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS                     
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG. THIS STRATUS              
IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AND APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN              
THEIR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES                   
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S REGIONWIDE.                               
THE FOG IS BECOMING QUITE DENSE IN A FEW AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM KTLH            
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG            
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STAY             
TUNED.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE               
CAROLINAS/NORTHERN GA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS ZONAL FLOW                  
MATERIALIZES ALOFT ALONG THE GULF COAST. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING A WEAK            
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GOMEX               
THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH            
SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. AS THE WEDGE HIGH                
BUILDS SOUTH...SOMEWHAT DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER              
IN. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST                   
THROUGH THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE THE SURFACE RIDGE. NAME THE MODEL                
PACKAGE...GFS/NAM/SREF/EC...AND ALL ARE TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW                
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (MAINLY OVER OUR GA ZONES) WITH THE LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.             
WITH THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE QPF FIELDS BEING                 
GENERATED CERTAINLY SEEM OVERDONE. HOWEVER...IN RESPECT TO THE                  
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SOLUTIONS WILL ALLOW A VERY SLIGHT 15% POP OVER OUR            
NORTHERN ZONES WITH A SILENT 10% OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.                
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITHOUT GIVING             
THE IMPRESSION OF A WET DAY (SINCE IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE). IF                
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE                    
TONIGHT THAN WILL UPDATE TO A SLIGHT 20-25% POP...BUT FEEL THIS IS              
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF             
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES (MAINLY GA)             
WHICH IS OFTEN A DIFFICULT FORECAST FIELD WITH THESE WEDGE SURFACE              
RIDGES. WILL GO ON THE "CONSERVATIVE" SIDE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
ACROSS MOST OF OUR GA ZONES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING SKIES GIVING              
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. NAM/GFS RH FIELDS ARE NOT                 
PICKING UP ON THE LOWER CLOUD POTENTIAL YET...BUT LOWER/MIDDLE LEVEL            
MOISTURE IS OFTEN A POORLY FORECAST FIELD BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN              
THESE SITUATIONS. THE LAST WEDGE THAT BUILT IN EARLIER LAST WEEK                
RESULTED IN SOME EXTENSIVE AND STUBBORN CLOUDS FROM AROUND KABY TO              
TIFTON TO JUST NORTH OF VALDOSTA. THESE CLOUDS OFTEN RESULT IN A                
SIGNIFICANT COOLER DAY THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY               
ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE CASE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE            
ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST.                
WILL SHOW A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE                
FROM AROUND KABY TO KVLD WITH ONLY LOWER 70S FOR OUR FAR NORTHEAST              
ZONES. IF THE WEDGE REALLY TAKES CONTROL...THEN EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY            
BE A BIT OVERDONE AND THE TEMP GRADIENT WILL NEED TO BE PUSHED A BIT            
FURTHER SOUTHWEST.                                                              
SURFACE HIGH IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.            
LOOKING FOR A DRY FORECAST WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL THROUGH A DEEP               
LAYER OF THE TROP. MID LEVEL RIDGE ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT DURING              
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SAME FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE               
POTENTIAL FOR STUBBORN LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS.            
LIKELY WILL SEE ANY LOW STRATUS EXPAND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF                
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN BURN OFF DURING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS                
NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER                  
DECENT TEMP GRADIENT WITH NEAR 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR OUR                   
SOUTH/WESTERN ZONES RANGING TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FURTHER NORTH               
AND EAST. AGAIN TRIED TO ANTICIPATE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY LOWER            
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL.                          
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY IN                   
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BRIEFLY AND ALLOW FLOW TO COME AROUND              
TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A DRY DAY WITH                 
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 80 OR A BIT BETTER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE             
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. GFS/SREF SHOWING             
THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PANHANDLE RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON             
SHOWERS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. UNDERCUT THE 30-40% POPS                
ADVERTISED BY MAV/SREF GUIDANCE AS ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE                   
SUPPORT FROM ABOVE FOR LIFT. GOING WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A BRIEF                
SHOWER/TSHOWER OVER THESE WESTERN ZONES...BUT AT THIS POINT                     
WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL END UP A FAIRLY PLEASANT SPRING DAY.                     
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TIGHTENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE                
SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL                    
DYNAMICS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. SO...AFTER ANY EVENING SHOWERS             
DIMINISH OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE ON            
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE NE GULF            
AND WRN ATLC WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY AND SURFACE HIGH ALONG OR             
JUST OFF NE FL COAST...A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY FCST WILL OPEN THE              
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF               
NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM.                                                         
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE BEGINNING FRIDAY WHILE              
N-S VORTLOBE MOVES ACROSS SE CONUS SAT. AT SURFACE... SHORTWAVE                 
HELPS TO DEFINE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS IN N TX WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING            
SWD IN MEX BY 12Z THURS. LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY N/NE TO GREAT LAKES BY               
12Z FRI WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF ACROSS ALA AND PARENT FRONT THRU WRN              
TENN-ERN ARK...ERN MOST TX. GFS SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION                  
MOVING ACROSS LOCAL AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH FRONT MOVING                  
ACROSS EARLY SAT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY NW               
FLOW THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY EVE OR EARLY MON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK BAND               
MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE. 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON THIS FRONTAL                 
TIMING WITH CONVECTION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING            
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SATURDAY. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WILL STAY WITH             
THE GFS SOLUTION...HOWEVER TIMING OF FRONT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED              
BACK IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY SINCE LATEST 00Z                  
CANADIAN IS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.               
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE CLIMO...WITH               
INLAND HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S THRU FRI...THEN               
DROP TO MID-UPPER 70S SAT AND LOW-MID 70S SUNDAY BEFORE RISING UP TO            
CLIMO AGAIN ON MONDAY. INLAND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...              
OR IN LOW 60S THRU SAT THEN IN WAKE OF FRONT DROP MID 40S SUN AND               
MID-UPPER 40S MON MORNING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ARE                  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE                  
PRESENT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR                   
IMAGERY. LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR VIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND                
ALREADY OCCURRING AT DHN...VLD...TLH...ABY. PFN LIKELY TO ALSO GET              
THE LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE VSBY NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE AS LOW.             
AFT 14-15Z FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH VFR CEILINGS                
AROUND 4 KFT UNTIL AROUND 20Z. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR KABY TO KVLD              
AS LOWER LEVEL STRATUS MAY ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION            
OF THE DAY. ANY LOWER LEVEL (MVFR/IFR) STRATUS FROM KABY TO KVLD IS             
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO                 
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE               
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN.            
THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                
EXPECT INCREASING FLOW FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT            
WITH ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES WHICH ARE COMMON IN THESE                 
SETUPS. WINDS AND SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH CAUTION LEVELS...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY                  
DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES              
EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE              
WELL TO OUR WEST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT                 
SEVERAL DAYS TO RESULT IN RH VALUES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.              
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  81  59  80  59  81 /  10  10   0   0  10                           
PANAMA CITY  79  62  77  64  77 /  10  10   0  10  20                           
DOTHAN       80  59  77  60  80 /  10  10   0  10  20                           
ALBANY       77  57  75  58  80 /  20  10   0   0  10                           
VALDOSTA     80  57  77  55  82 /  20  10   0   0  10                           
CROSS CITY   82  57  81  57  82 /  10  10   0   0  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOCK                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...BLOCK/MROCZKA                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
835 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT CUT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS              
OUR GA ZONES AND THEN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA AT 00Z.              
MEANWHILE...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA               
NEAR OUR SE BIG BEND ZONES. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF                      
CONVECTION WAS NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL                
MOVE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT TAKING THE REMAINING               
SHOWERS WITH IT AND ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE                  
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN ITS WAKE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE ALL                  
MENTION OF POPS FROM THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE ZONES. AS SKIES BEGIN TO             
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG TO               
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT...ESPECIALLY               
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT...FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA               
WITH PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE PRESENT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT                  
MID LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONDITIONS COULD GO AS LOW AS               
VLIFR FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FOR DHN...VLD AND TLH.             
PFN AND ABY WILL ALSO GET THE LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE VSBY SHOULD NOT            
BE QUITE AS LOW. FOR MON...AFTER THE MORNING CONDITIONS IMPROVE...              
LOOK FOR VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10 TO             
15 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT                
CONTINUES TO SLACK.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BARRY                                                              
AVIATION...WOOL                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
230 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...CONVECTION HAS               
FINALLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS HENDRY                 
AND COLLIER COUNTIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE              
LAKE OKEE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                 
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD                
COUNTIES WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE...AND                  
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SLOW NE MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE               
METRO AREAS EXPECTED HERE AS WELL.                                              
COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                    
CURRENTLY...SFC TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTH FL/BIG BEND AREA. WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE WITH                
AN ASSOCIATED LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS...AND RUC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS               
SHOWS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ALONG AND JUST              
EAST OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE               
NAM12 SAGGING THE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL BY 12Z                     
TOMORROW...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH. CONCERNING THE                 
SHORTWAVE...THE GFS ELONGATES THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE MASS                    
MOVING ONE PIECE NE ACROSS N FL WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE BREAKS                 
OFF AND MOVES E/SE AND SAGS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING/EARLY                
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO SOUTH FL LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW                     
MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION                   
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...GIVEN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE              
GULF AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS IT MAY ACTUALLY HAVE THE RIGHT               
IDEA...AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION THE NEXT 24 HRS...GIVEN               
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THIS                   
SHORTWAVE...AND GIVEN BROAD/DIFFUSE NATURE OF SURFACE TROUGH AND                
LACK OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER DO NOT FEEL IT WILL SAG THAT FAR                     
SOUTH...REMAINING FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT LIKE THE 09Z SREF                     
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.                      
FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION                 
ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANY ASSOCIATED                       
BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE FROM IT. WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DOES                  
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE SIMILAR TO                 
LAST NIGHTS ROUND...WITH SOME STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND                  
HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT EXPECT WEAK OVERALL SHEAR/LAPSE RATES AND                  
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL PREVENT A SEVERE WX OUTBREAK.                            
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL FINALLY GIVE THE              
SFC TROUGH SOME PUSH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC FLOW                 
VEERS TO SW OR WSW AHEAD OF IT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM UP             
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EAST COAST AREAS IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN CLEAR             
SOME. HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AS A RESULT...BUT GIVEN              
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT WILL NOT GO AS WARM             
AS THIS PATTERN FAVORS CLIMATOLOGICALLY. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH                 
SHOULD STAY COOLER AS WINDS SHIFT N AND THEN NE DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIP AS THE TROUGH MOVES               
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THIS AGAIN WILL BE DEPENDANT ON                
EVOLUTION TONIGHT. IF GFS SCENARIO DOES INDEED PAN OUT...WOULD                  
EXPECT THE WSW SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO LIMIT MOISTURE                   
RECOVERY AND CONVERGENCE...AND THUS LIMIT OVERALL PRECIP THREAT                 
AFTER THE MORNING HOURS.                                                        
THEREAFTER...SFC RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC                   
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PREVAILING NE FLOW...AND               
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER             
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY...THE BULK             
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM. IF THIS PATTERN                
DOES PAN OUT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND OFFSHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO                
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST/NAPLES AREA              
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH                
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE A                   
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY PARTICULAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE            
EAST COAST SITES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY. THIS                    
POSSIBILITY IS HIGHEST FOR PBI THAN THE OTHER SITES. ADDITIONAL                 
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA            
FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...ANY STORM              
ACTIVITY ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF                   
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH ANY OF THIS                  
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
S TO SW WINDS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 15 KTS...THEN               
BECOME NW THEN NE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH                    
PASSES THROUGH. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK              
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AND IF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE                   
CAROLINA COAST AS ADVERTISED BY SOME MODELS...THERE COULD BE A 3                
TO 4 FT SWELL MOVING SW TO OUR LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE                      
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. FETCH AT THIS TIME WOULD                
FAVOR GREATEST IMPACT AT PALM BEACH COAST AS BAHAMAS WILL SHIELD                
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH FROM MORE THAN A 1 TO 2 FT SWELL.                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO CONCERNS...SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MOVE IN AND MIX DOWN                
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT RH`S                    
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  70  85  70  82 / 60 60 20 20                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  72  83 / 60 60 20 20                                   
MIAMI            72  87  72  84 / 60 60 20 20                                   
NAPLES           71  84  67  88 / 70 40 20 20                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE: STRASSBERG                                              
AVIATION: PS                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS EXITED THE ATLANTIC WATERS              
THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WAS DRIVEN BY EITHER A MESOSCALE                   
CONVECTIVE VORT AND/OR MESOLOW WHICH HAS BEEN EASY TO SEE                       
SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS EXITING INTO THE             
ATLANTIC. THE MCS HAS LEFT A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS                
BECOME STATIONARY AND RUNS FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX IN THE            
WESTERN BAHAMAS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND BACK WNW INTO THE EAST            
CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT                  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS CAUSED A LARGE BLOWUP             
IN CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVES INTERSECTION WITH               
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.                                              
THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS GOING TO BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH ADDITIONAL             
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER            
AND FAIRLY STABLE RIGHT NOW...WITH LAPS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING                
200-300 J/KG OF CINH TO WORK THROUGH. SURFACE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED               
BACK TO THE PREVAILING SE DIRECTION...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS             
RECOVERY TODAY GIVEN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS ALREADY                  
THINNED OUT...PLUS THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE ARCING DEEP                    
MOISTURE PLUME AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPS                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES RECOVERY IS ALREADY BEGINNING WITH SURFACE-BASED             
INSTABILITY INCREASING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF/FL KEYS.                       
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS MENTIONED ABOVE...THINK THAT THE ATMOSPHERE             
WILL RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION BY EARLY TO MID                 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS WARM INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 80S AND              
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW ANY CONVECTION THAT               
FORMS TO WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS            
SITUATION HANDLED WELL...AND WILL ONLY UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND            
LOWER POPS SOME FOR THE MORNING HOURS.                                          
IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN FORM SOUTH ALONG THE SHORTWAVE IN THE              
CENTRAL GULF...CURRENT TIMING WOULD HAVE IT ARRIVING ALONG THE WEST             
COAST AFTER 00Z...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT SHORTWAVE AND                 
ITS INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE                
DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING/EARLY                 
TONIGHT...GIVEN STRONG DRY PUNCH NOTED BEHIND IT ON WATER VAPOR                 
IMAGERY AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE GULF.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH                
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO                     
PREVAIL. LIGHT FLOW AND HEATING WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP               
ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND               
IMPACT THE TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY                    
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE WITH                     
BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS/MVFR CIGS AND PSBL WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.               
UPDATE/AVIATION...STRASSBERG/PS                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2008/                          
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING                   
WATERS HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH               
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG GUST                
FRONT NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND                   
EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE GUST FRONT           
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BUT MORE                        
STRATI FORM IN NATURE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS             
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO                     
SUPPRESS IT SOME. HOWEVER...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                       
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING. WITH ANY ADDITIONAL                        
CONVECTION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN               
HAZARDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR POSSIBLE HAIL.              
AFTER TODAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL INFLUENCE                
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER WITH           
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN                
THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THEREAFTER...CHANCES                
OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH.                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A GUST FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING IS                   
AFFECTING THE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS.                  
FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...EXPECT TO HAVE                
VCTS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND VERY BRIEF                    
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.                   
THEREAFTER....STRATI FORM RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING              
HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIODS OF                 
MVFR POSSIBLE.                                                                  
FOR TERMINAL KAPF...MAINLY STRATI FORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE              
MID MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS                         
POSSIBLE...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.                            
FOR ALL TERMINALS...CONVECTION COULD BEGIN AGAIN IN THE                         
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MFVR POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR              
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.                                                
MARINE...                                                                       
A LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE LONG TERM                      
FORECAST...WITH A NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL FORECAST TO ENTER THE                   
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO                            
THURSDAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FEET POSSIBLY REACHING THESE WATERS. THIS                
SWELL IS FORECAST TO BE GENERATED BY A DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE               
CAROLINAS.                                                                      
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  85  69 / 70 50 50 20                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  72  85  71 / 70 50 50 20                                   
MIAMI            85  71  86  71 / 70 50 50 20                                   
NAPLES           84  71  84  67 / 50 40 40 20                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...60/BD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1215 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                               
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS ON TRACK AND DO NOT PLAN ANY                   
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.                                                       
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A COLD FRONT                
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED              
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT IN WESTERN MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT             
ARE SOMEWHAT STEEP /21 DEG 700-500 DELTA-T/...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
IS QUITE SPARSE. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS ON UPSTREAM 12Z                  
SOUNDINGS IS SHALLOW AND DOES NOT EVEN MAKE IT UP TO 850 MB. AS A               
CONSEQUENCE...THINK THAT THE RUC MODEL FORECAST OF LOWER 50S SURFACE            
DEWPOINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE GENEROUS SIDE. THEREFORE...             
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE                
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS               
GOING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS               
FAR SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED.                                              
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MON.              
SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEC/CMI 18Z-23Z TODAY...                 
OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY               
LOW LEVEL FLOW 12-18 KT THROUGH 01Z MON. A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT AS                
WELL. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH                
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL                   
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF                 
SITES IN THE 09Z-12Z MON TIMEFRAME...WITH THICKENING STRATOCU AROUND            
5K FT AHEAD OF IT. A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND             
PIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT 03Z-08Z...BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE              
TOO WEAK FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION. CHANCES FOR ANY            
PRECIPITATION AT ANY ONE PLACE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT             
THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEAVING                 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SOUTHWEST               
5-10 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY 10-15 KT AFTER 14Z MON.                            
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 332 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                
FORECAST MODELS STILL DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT ANY WAY YOU SHAKE             
IT...A VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WEATHER WISE. A              
SERIES OF THREE DISTURBANCES...EACH ONE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE                
LAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.                                   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
EXPECT ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.                  
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED BY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE SPREADING               
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI... AND SHOULD HANG AROUND            
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW HIGH ALOFT. DESPITE THE                 
FILTERED SUNSHINE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE CWA. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE               
CONSIDERING A FEW MODELS WENT A LITTLE TOO WARM YESTERDAY... AND                
TODAY WE WILL HAVE THE ADDED VARIABLE OF HIGH CLOUDS... AND IT IS               
OFTEN DIFFICULT TO JUDGE JUST HOW THICK THEY WILL BECOME.                       
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP BALANCE OUT             
THIS LIMITING FACTOR.                                                           
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WAS OVER NORTHERN IDAHO 24 HOURS AGO IS              
NOW ROLLING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE              
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS                
ILLINOIS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND DAWN TUESDAY WITH LITTLE                  
FANFARE COMPARED TO WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING LATER IN THE WEEK. JUST              
NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH... AND IN ITS                  
HIGHLY OCCLUDED STATE... THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE VERY MUCH               
CONFINED TO RIGHT NEAR THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK. KEPT A LOW CHANCE               
POP IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN             
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.                                                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF A FLIP FLOP OVER THE PAST 24                  
HOURS. YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THE MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARDS THE               
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH A FARTHER NW SFC LOW TRACK FOR                     
TUE-WED... AND FELT THIS WAS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN BLOCKING PATTERN               
DOWNSTREAM. THEN THE 12Z RUNS CAME IN BRINGING EVERYTHING FARTHER               
SOUTHEAST AGAIN. 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS WERE SIMILAR TO 12Z                       
RUNS...WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH RESUMED THE            
MORE NORTHWEST TRACK. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND 21Z SREF BOTH INDICATE              
THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...NOTE THE 00Z                 
OPERATIONAL GFS WAS ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE                   
SPREAD... AND THE PARALLEL GFS ALSO WAS FARTHER NORTHWEST. LOCAL                
80KM ARW MODEL WHICH USES GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ALSO WAS MUCH             
NW OF THE GFS LOW TRACK. BOTTOM LINE... DO NOT THINK IT IS WISE TO              
TOSS ALL THE FORECAST EGGS IN ONE MODEL RUNS BASKET...ESPECIALLY                
WHEN THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES WITH MASS FIELDS ARE MINOR... BUT IT               
MAKES A FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WX. EXAMINATION OF MODEL              
SOLUTIONS DID NOT COME UP WITH ANY OBVIOUS REASONS TO FAVOR ONE                 
SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. SO... TOOK THE PROVERBIAL MIDDLE ROAD AND              
USED THE PROVERBIAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS WHEN EDITING GRIDS FOR               
TUE AND WEDNESDAY.                                                              
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY...AND             
GIVEN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR... IT IS WELL WARRANTED. UNLESS             
THE SFC LOW TAKES THE FAR NORTHWEST TRACK... THE ACTUAL SVR WX                  
THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE SMALLER. GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE... I AM            
LEERY OF THE POSITION OF THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY TO                  
BISECT SOME PART OF OUR CWA TUE. LOCALLY BACKED SFC FLOW INVOF WARM             
FRONT COULD INCREASE RISK OF TORNADOES...AND SPC HAS THIS OUTLINED              
IN THE SWODY3 AS WELL...SO WELCOME TO SPRING.                                   
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                             
AS IF ONE SYSTEM WAS NOT ENOUGH...GFS/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL ALL                      
INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH... THIS ONE EVEN             
DEEPER/STRONGER THAN THE EARLIER ONE... WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY... BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR                 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO                    
LIKELY... A RARE MOVE FOR DAY 5... GIVEN THE CONSISTENTLY STRONG                
SIGNAL.                                                                         
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
124 PM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH THE                  
MAIN CONCERN BEING THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AT OR JUST               
ABV 25 KTS POSSIBLE THRU THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFT               
00Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODEST SOUTHEAST                   
WINDS AFTER 15-16Z. NO CIGS EXPECTED BELOW 12K FT THRU THE PERIOD.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
DRY AND CLOUDLESS SFC FRONT STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM               
THE WEST...JET STREAK CI PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS SW INDIANA INTO               
NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM                    
FORECAST...MAINLY TO REMOVE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CLOUDS FOR THE               
DAY...LEAVING SOME CI/FEW CU IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION              
WHERE JUST A BIT MORE MOISTURE EXISTS. TWEAKED TEMPS SOME BLENDING              
THE LATEST DATA FROM THE OBS AND RUC13 WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST               
TO CATCH LATEST TEMPS AND DEWPT TRENDS...THIS DID CREATE SLIGHT                 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AFTN HIGHS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST...AND NEAR               
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER TEMPS                
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS STILL LOOK LIKELY AS THE FRONT              
PASSES THIS AFTERNOON.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST INTO THE                   
FORECAST AREA TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.                
SOME SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL                     
FORCING. GIVEN ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA...HAVE ADDED              
SPRINKLES EARLY TODAY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME             
NORTHERN INDIANA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING              
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND AS THE FRONT BECOMES                      
STATIONARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS ON DELAY OF ONSET OF TSRA                 
CHCS TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH FOCUS AND BETTER 1000-925MB THETA-E                
RETURN FLOW/MFLUX CONVERGENCE LIMITED LARGELY TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT              
IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FIRST S/W NEAR KMPX TO LIFT QUICKLY              
NEWD INTO SRN ONT...MEANWHILE B.C./WA COAST WAVE EXTENDING SWD TO               
OR/NRN CA W/STRONG STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION TO REEMERGE BY 00 UTC                
TUE ALONG FRONT RANGE OF CNTL ROCKIES FORCING STRONG LEESIDE                    
CYCLOGENSIS EARLY TUE. 06/12Z ECMWF TOO FAST WITH FRONT...NAM/GFS               
PRETTY MUCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT. QUESTION REMAINS ON DEGREE OF                    
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED SFC PARCELS IN SRN CWA YIELD AROUND 1000                  
J/KG SBCAPES WITH WINDEX TO 42 KTS/FAVORABLE WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND              
9KFT. AROUND 40 KTS DEEP BULK SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO FRONT WITH                 
60-70KT 5H JETLET SUGGESTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL               
WITH CONDITIONAL LEWP DEVELOPMENT/WIND THREAT. DUE TO CONDITIONAL               
NATURE PRIMARILY WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS               
IN HWO. GAVE TIGHTER PRECIP GRADIENT WED AM ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT               
AND TIMED TSRA/SHRA OUT OF CWA BY WED AFTN. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF              
SHRA WED NIGHT AS 1000-700 MB LAYER MARKEDLY DRY WITH FROPA.                    
UNCERTAINTY WRT HIGH PRECISION IN DY4 TSRA FCST ESPCLY AS                       
ECMWF/GFS SPREAD INCREASES WITH FINAL EJECTION OF SWRN STATES                   
TROF. CERTAINLY UNSETTLED PD AND WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN                          
PLAY/LIFTING BACK NWD OPTED FOR CHC TSRA THU/THU NIGHT PENDING                  
MESOSCALE FEATURES/TIMING COMING MORE TO LIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
LONG TERM...MURPHY                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1037 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DRY AND CLOUDLESS SFC FRONT STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM               
THE WEST...JET STREAK CI PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS SW INDIANA INTO               
NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM                    
FORECAST...MAINLY TO REMOVE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CLOUDS FOR THE               
DAY...LEAVING SOME CI/FEW CU IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION              
WHERE JUST A BIT MORE MOISTURE EXISTS. TWEAKED TEMPS SOME BLENDING              
THE LATEST DATA FROM THE OBS AND RUC13 WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST               
TO CATCH LATEST TEMPS AND DEWPT TRENDS...THIS DID CREATE SLIGHT                 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AFTN HIGHS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST...AND NEAR               
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER TEMPS                
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS STILL LOOK LIKELY AS THE FRONT              
PASSES THIS AFTERNOON.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE EAST INTO THE                   
FORECAST AREA TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.                
SOME SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL                     
FORCING. GIVEN ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA...HAVE ADDED              
SPRINKLES EARLY TODAY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME             
NORTHERN INDIANA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING              
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND AS THE FRONT BECOMES                      
STATIONARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS ON DELAY OF ONSET OF TSRA                 
CHCS TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH FOCUS AND BETTER 1000-925MB THETA-E                
RETURN FLOW/MFLUX CONVERGENCE LIMITED LARGELY TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT              
IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FIRST S/W NEAR KMPX TO LIFT QUICKLY              
NEWD INTO SRN ONT...MEANWHILE B.C./WA COAST WAVE EXTENDING SWD TO               
OR/NRN CA W/STRONG STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION TO REEMERGE BY 00 UTC                
TUE ALONG FRONT RANGE OF CNTL ROCKIES FORCING STRONG LEESIDE                    
CYCLOGENSIS EARLY TUE. 06/12Z ECMWF TOO FAST WITH FRONT...NAM/GFS               
PRETTY MUCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT. QUESTION REMAINS ON DEGREE OF                    
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED SFC PARCELS IN SRN CWA YIELD AROUND 1000                  
J/KG SBCAPES WITH WINDEX TO 42 KTS/FAVORABLE WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND              
9KFT. AROUND 40 KTS DEEP BULK SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO FRONT WITH                 
60-70KT 5H JETLET SUGGESTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL               
WITH CONDITIONAL LEWP DEVELOPMENT/WIND THREAT. DUE TO CONDITIONAL               
NATURE PRIMARILY WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS               
IN HWO. GAVE TIGHTER PRECIP GRADIENT WED AM ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT               
AND TIMED TSRA/SHRA OUT OF CWA BY WED AFTN. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF              
SHRA WED NIGHT AS 1000-700 MB LAYER MARKEDLY DRY WITH FROPA.                    
UNCERTAINTY WRT HIGH PRECISION IN DY4 TSRA FCST ESPCLY AS                       
ECMWF/GFS SPREAD INCREASES WITH FINAL EJECTION OF SWRN STATES                   
TROF. CERTAINLY UNSETTLED PD AND WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN                          
PLAY/LIFTING BACK NWD OPTED FOR CHC TSRA THU/THU NIGHT PENDING                  
MESOSCALE FEATURES/TIMING COMING MORE TO LIGHT.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008/                           
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE THE                
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL LESSEN LATER IN THE                
EVENING AND VEER MORE TO THE WEST WITH HIGH CIGS AROUND 20K                     
POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU              
THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
LONG TERM...MURPHY                                                              
UPDATE...SCHOTT                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
950 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION.                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PTYPE THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED             
CHANCE SNOW IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN. LOTS OF DRY            
AIR AT H850 THIS EVENING AND NEW NAM...THOUGH NAM ISNT INITIALIZING             
THE EXTENT OF QPF PRESENTLY...IT CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A FASTER             
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MIX GOING...ONCE IT BEGINS...                
THOUGH IF SHOWERS ARE HEAVY ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A SITUATION                  
SIMILAR TO LAST THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF WET SNOW SURROUNDED BY                 
AREAS OF RAINFALL. FOR THE MOMENT THE SNOW OVER NE HAS LESSENED.                
WILL BE LOOKING AT LATEST GFS AND RUC CLOSELY. EARLIER...UPDATED                
ZONES FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOUTH. ALREADY GETTING            
MEASURABLE ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES. LOTS OF VIRGA OUTSIDE ATTM                
WITH DRY LAYER BEGINNING TO FILL IN. SNOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTH                  
CENTRAL NE AND WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT UPPER AIR/NEW MODEL OUTPUT            
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR ANY SIGN OF PTYPE ISSUES TUES./REV              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH             
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE              
CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND TRYING TO FORM WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BAROCLINIC            
LEAF ON THE LEE SIDE.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS TX/NEW              
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE            
LOW INTO OK AND SRN MO.  OVERRUNNING SETTING UP AND PRODUCING                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER KS AND NEB.  AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN            
IT SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FROM THE              
LOOKS OF THINGS THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA              
AND THUS ONLY MEAGER CAPE VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  THERE                  
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  THIS             
SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO IOWA TO GIVE A SMALL PORTION OF SE IA A             
SHOT AT SOME THUNDER.  SHEAR IS DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH                
VERY LOW CAPES AND THE AREA NOT GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR AT ALL             
I WOULD EXPECT ELEVATED STORMS THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING              
LIKE MUCH AT THIS POINT.  QPF HOWEVER LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS A BETTER             
MOISTURE TAP OCCURS BY 18Z TUES.  SYSTEM LIFTS OUT BY LATE TUESDAY.             
THERE WILL THEN BE A BRIEF RESPITE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                
MOVES IN THEN DEPARTS BY MID EVENING.  THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN BEGINS              
TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                      
THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE MAINLY ON TIMING BUT GENERAL             
TRENDS ARE TO LIFT THE LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS                
IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW             
MUCH COLD AIR THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO.  THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH                
THIS SYSTEM AND THUS ALLOWS A LITTLE MORE COLD AIR INTO THE NW.  THE            
EURO HAS A BIGGER GULF TAP AND PUTS THE WARM SECTOR INTO MORE INTO              
EASTERN IOWA THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN LATER             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF               
THE UPPER LOW I LIKE THE SLOWER GFS BUT THINK THAT THE WARM SECTOR              
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA.  IN SHORT I WENT WITH A BLEND            
OF THE GFS/EURO.  THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL SNOW PRODUCER FOR                   
LOCATIONS NORTH OF IOWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SLIP              
INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...08/00Z                                                              
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE              
OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS KS AND NE ATTM WITH RAIN/SNOW AND SOME                
THUNDER ALREADY OCCURRING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE THE SFC                
FEATURE POORLY WITH THE 18Z RUN. GFS/NAM QUITE DIFFERENT BUT AM                 
LEANING TOWARD A NAM/EURO COMPROMISE FOR TUES. DRY POOL AT THE SFC              
AND ALOFT SETS THE STAGE FOR A MIX OF PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA              
ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE RASN AND LOWER CIGS VSBYS               
THERE FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY AM GOING              
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS TUES 12Z-20Z IF THE                
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS THIS EVENING             
AND UPDATING PACKAGE IF NECESSARY. /REV                                         
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MS APR 08/REV                                                      
AVIATION...REV                                                                  
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
344 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS                  
KANSAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, STRONG ELEVATED WARM                    
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM 900 TO 750MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW                  
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CAPE BASED AT THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE.               
THE NAM WAS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAN               
THE GFS/UKMET. IN SUCH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME, CLIMATOLOGY                   
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN                 
COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, STRONG WARM ADVECTION                   
BELOW THE CAP WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.                  
DESPITE THE NAM`S HEAVY PRECIP, I SUSPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
FAIRLY LOW IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN              
INCH. BUT PLACES EAST OF DODGE CITY INCLUDING STAFFORD AND PRATT                
COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN               
OUR FAR NW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY                    
LIGHT. NAM/RUC SFC TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ACCEPTED FOR 12Z TUE WITH               
LOWS FROM 33 TO 41 FROM NW TO SE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD                 
HOLD MAXES DOWN TUESDAY, BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY                   
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER 50S IN DDC AND UPPER 50S IN THE SW CORNER.                 
THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM             
WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT IT APPEARS            
THAT THE STORM TRACK WILL BE OVER DODGE CITY, SO THE DRY INTRUSION              
MAY COME INTO PLAY. BUT DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT           
IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.                                
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT              
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. BASED ON THE               
WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF 25H JET ACROSS NRN OK/SC KS IT CURRENTLY                
APPEARS THAT E/SE CWA WILL HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF/LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE             
CNTL PLAINS AND DEEPEN AS MID LVL MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND                
THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM. LLVL WAA AND 85H-7H FGEN PROGGED TO INCREASES            
ACROSS NW KS NEAR OUR NW CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS               
AND ECMWF SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VVEL SLOWLY SHIFTING            
EASTWARD ACROSS CWA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF WHEN OUR              
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE PLAINS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BUT                    
FOLLOWING THE GFS/ECMWF TREND THE PCPN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN OUR            
NE CWA FRIDAY MORNING WHILE CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THROUGH EARLY                   
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND COLD NE/E WIND WILL BE KEEPING TEMPS ON THE                
COOL SIDE LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER               
GFS SOUNDING FOR TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                  
THIS COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SW TO NE EARLY THIS               
WEEKEND AS NW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO                
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AND IF THE GFS...ECWMF AND                
CANADIAN VERIFY THEN HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD  BE IN THE 70S.                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 925-85H AND               
85H-7H FGEN FORCING PLACING THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN OVER DDC/HYS              
AROUND 6Z. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY               
12Z. LOW LVL MOISTURE HOWEVER FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS EXTENDS UP TO               
85H LVL AT 12Z SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO             
ERODE. HAVE THEREFORE FAVORED A SLOWER EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS                
THROUGH 18Z THAN WHAT THE GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  36  52  31  54 /  60  30   0  50                                           
GCK  33  51  30  53 /  60  20   0  40                                           
EHA  34  60  34  54 /  20  20   0  30                                           
LBL  36  58  31  54 /  30  20   0  40                                           
HYS  34  47  31  53 /  60  40   0  50                                           
P28  41  52  34  58 /  70  30   0  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN24/18                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1135 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1110 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ISSUE A RED FLAG                   
WARNING THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS DRIER AND WINDIER                  
THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING. DEWPOINTS HAVE TANKED TO SINGLE                  
DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
EXPECT THIS DRY AIR MASS TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST. WINDS ARE ALSO                 
STRONGER AND DO NOT LOOK TO START DECREASING UNTIL THE EARLY TO                 
MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                         
USED REALITY AND THE NAM40 SOUNDINGS TO UPDATE DEWPOINTS. COMBINED              
REALITY WITH THE RUC13 FOR THE WIND FORECAST. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY                 
GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND SATELLITE. AT THIS TIME...THE                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALLPARK.                                         
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
RELATIVELY QUIET WX ON SUNDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. NORTHWEST                
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES              
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO POTENTIAL RED               
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS ADVECTING FROM THE                     
NORTHWEST...BUT WINDS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY THE TIME THE LOWEST RH             
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED AGAINST IT. SECONDARY CANADIAN              
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS                 
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE WESTERN                
CWA. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES...AND THINK IT WILL BE            
VIRGA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.                   
HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE               
DAY ON MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NAM/GFS STILL                  
TRYING TO CUT OFF A CIRCULATION AT 700MB OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST                 
COLORADO BY 00Z TUESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY SATURATE...WHILE GFS             
NOT QUITE SO AGGRESSIVE. GIVEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DYNAMICS              
ALOFT...LIKE THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. PHASE WILL BE A PROBLEM...AS ICE             
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT SURFACE WET BULB               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EVEN IF SNOW MAKES            
IT TO THE SURFACE...HARD TO GAUGE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION WITH               
WARM SOIL/GROUND TEMPERATURES TO START. USED A VERY LOW SLR OF 5 FOR            
MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO 10 MONDAY NIGHT IN EXPECTATION OF A WET               
SNOW OF AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.                                 
AN INTENSE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH              
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE POSITION OF THE 500MB LOW OVER               
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS SUGGESTS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE              
COLD SIDE UNDER POSSIBLE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND. STILL A BIT EARLY               
BUT ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW IN WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON             
THURSDAY BASED PRIMARILY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND TIME OF YEAR.               
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN             
CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO 5K FT. AFTER 03Z BUT            
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WIND SPEED WILL START TO              
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND REMAIN NORTHERLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN                 
EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                
KJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.                                                
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
839 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INTERIM UPDATE FOR EVENING CLOUD/TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND TRENDS.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUD TREND ACCOMODATED MORE EASILY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF             
OPAQUE CIRRUS CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT. WINDS ADJUSTED CLOSER TO A                  
MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION/SLOWER VEERING OF WINDS PER THE 13 KM                
RUC GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN MORE               
PROBLEMATIC...AS ANTECEDENT CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM        
SIKESTON MO TO SACRAMENTO KY SHOWS A MARKED THETA-E                             
BOUNDARY...WITH MIDDLE 30/LOWER 40 SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH               
AND UPPER 40/LOWER 50 DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME              
ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO RECONCILE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH SURROUNDING           
OFFICES. ANOTHER UPDATE OF THE TABULAR PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY                
BEFORE LATE EVENING...IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT REBOUND MUCH                  
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RUC/NAM...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER                   
DEGREE...THE SREF...HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WELL...WITH ONLY              
A MINOR VARIATIONS ON THE MASS/WIND/THERMAL FIELDS BY 12Z TUESDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONCERN CONTINUES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS             
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TWO                 
WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.                                    
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE TODAY...MOST AREAS WILL            
SEE A NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY WIND BY 00Z. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY               
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO              
THE NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD STATE. CAN SEE NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A               
POP LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE TONIGHT PERIOD DRY.                              
ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK                
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL            
BE HOW QUICKLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE             
AREA. LATEST MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT                  
DECCENT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE              
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BUMPED THEM UP TO               
CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT.                                           
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT CONSISTENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH EITHER             
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FRONTAL WAVE              
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA WHICH WOULD              
SERVE TO HOLD BACK THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT THUS KEEPING              
ANY BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING                  
LONGER ACROSS OUR CWA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. GFS HAS             
SHOWN PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO SOME OF ITS QPF OUTPUT             
HAS TO BE IGNORED. INITIAL THINKING OF TOTAL QPF WITH SYSTEM NUMBER             
ONE IS 1-2 INCHES. A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS             
STILL A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND             
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS PALE IN              
COMPARISON TO SYSTEM NUMBER TWO COMING LATER THIS WEEK.                         
SPEAKING OF SYSTEM NUMBER TWO...NOT LONG AFTER SYSTEM ONE CLEARS THE            
AREA...SYSTEM NUMBER TWO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF            
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASED DEEPENING OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW.             
EARLIER RUNS SHOWED THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MAINLY               
AFFECTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED TO MORE             
OF A THURSDAY NIGHT SCENARIO. THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE CLEAR OF               
THE CWA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS               
FOR AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH WILL ONLY             
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING ISSUES WE ALREADY HAVE.                                 
TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A                 
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.             
NOT ENOUGH TIME TO DISCUSS IN DEPTH RIGHT NOW...BUT NUMEROUS SEVERE             
WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT             
WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND                    
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES.              
A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXISTS              
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN KEEPS THE REGION DRY             
AND COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.                    
WILL BE ISSUING AN ESF (HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK) SHORTLY FOR THE FLOOD               
POTENTIAL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS                    
INCREASING TO BKN THEN OVC BY 12Z.  LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS              
WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  WINDS AFTER 12Z            
WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KTS.  NO            
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...SMITH                                           
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1028 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TOUGH CALL ON DEGREE OF FOG TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN                 
CON BEING THE LLJ FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER ERN TX/WRN LA. KLCH AND              
KPOE VAD WIND PROFILES BOTH SHOWING 25-30KT AT 1K FT...WHICH IS                 
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PROGS AT 975MB SHOWN BY THE GFS AND NAM.                        
MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LL                 
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. IN                            
ADDITION...RAW PROGS SHOWN BY THE RUC/NAM/SREF ALL POINT TO A                   
DECENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW AT LEAST 1SM....WHILE                 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO FOG KLCH EASTWARD TO KLFT. IN THE                  
FACE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS              
TIME... AND SIMPLY ADJUST BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAIN INHERITED                      
PATCHY/AREAS WORDING.                                                           
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS THE BETTER STRATUS SIGNAL IS TO OUR                  
WEST...AND CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER OK AND N TX SHOULD REMAIN                
TO OUR NORTH.                                                                   
FOR THE EVENING COASTAL WATERS ISSUANCE...WINDS CURRENTLY NEAR                  
SCEC CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.               
KEPT THE CWF HEADLINE FREE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
SYNOPSIS...A DRY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE LOWER 48. WHILE MINOR                 
DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW, THERE IS                  
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO LIFT AND CAPPING DOMINATES THE                
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FOG IS ANOTHER ISSUE. LEFT OVER MOISTURE NEAR                 
THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR                     
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT                
BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY ENDED UP BEING REQUIRED.             
SINCE FOG FORMATION WILL BE BEYOND THE EVENING HOURS, WILL LET THE              
NIGHT CREWS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT.                                          
SHORT TERM...STRONG FOG SIGNAL AND PERSISTENCE ANOTHER NIGHT OF                 
LATE FOG. NGM HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL ON POPS AND ZEROS WILL RULE               
INTO TUESDAY. CAPPING AND A SUBSIDENT RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE H3                
JET SHOULD GIVE AN ASSIST TO THE GOAL OF KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE              
FCST ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT ON TEMPS. HUGGED THAT               
GUIDANCE TIGHTLY.                                                               
LONG TERM...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN           
ON WEDNESDAY. WE FIND OURSELVES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK              
FOR SEVERE TSTMS. BETTER DYNAMICS APPEAR WELL TO THE NORTH. LOW                 
LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT STRONG AT 20 KTS. CAPES AROUND 1500 JOULES               
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL BUT ALL IN ALL LOOKS TO BE A STRETCH.                   
WEEKEND LOOKING COOL AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.                     
AVIATION...LIFR FOG LATE TNITE.                                                 
MARINE...BACKED OFF ON THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE                      
TUESDAY AS LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LESS PRESSURE FALLS IN                
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL               
LOOK TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY TO SCEC OR POSSIBLY SCA CRITERIA AS                
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                  
DELAYED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UNTIL A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES                
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  64  82  71  82 /   0   0  10  30                                          
KBPT  66  81  71  83 /   0   0  10  30                                          
KAEX  56  85  66  83 /   0   0  10  30                                          
KLFT  61  83  69  81 /   0   0  10  40                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1147AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION                                                        
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL              
WISCONSIN. MODELS SHOWING THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO               
SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ACCOMPANYING                 
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL UPPER              
MICHIGAN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASENT NORTH OF THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE                 
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DRY               
SLOT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE U.P. WITH THE LOW. SO THERE WILL BE A               
BRIEF LET UP BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND RAINS SHIFT OVER THE AREA.                  
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST               
AREA. THE CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS ALREADY. WARM AIR ADVECTION                
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 50              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST ONTARIO TONIGHT. AS IT LIFTS                     
NORTHEAST IT WILL LOSE ITS LOW AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND  DRY AIR               
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA CAUSING THE RAIN/SNOW TO END. TRAJECTORY              
FORECAST SUGGEST AIR MASS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE INTO THE              
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOWERING            
TO ONLY THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.                                          
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND LATER.                                                 
WEAK HI PRES RDG EXTENDING SWD FM CENTER OVER HUDSON BAY WL BE IN               
CONTROL ON TUE MRNG AND BRING DRY WX INTO THE AFTN...BUT FOCUS IN               
THE AFTN WL SHIFT TO THE SCNTRL PLAINS...WHERE SFC LO PRES WL BE                
DVLPG IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARRIVAL OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC             
NW. OVERALL...NCEP PREFERS THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS               
LO...WITH THE TIMING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY THIS                  
MODEL. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC LO REACHING NCNTRL IL BY 00Z                 
WED... BUT A SLOWER VERSION WOULD LINE UP NICELY WITH THE NAM/GFS               
FCST POSITION IN SCNTRL IL IN ADVANCE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV               
LIFTING OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF. EXPECT HI CLD TO BE ON THE INCRS              
ON TUE IN THE INCRSGLY DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WITH THE CLD BASE GRDLY               
LOWERING WITH INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE 290-300K SFCS.                
SINCE NCEP PREFERS A SLOWER TIMING AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW QUITE A              
BIT OF MID LVL DRY AIR OVER THE SCNTRL THRU 00Z WED...OPTED TO SLOW             
ARRIVAL OF PCPN FM THE S A FEW HRS A BIT IN LINE WITH GFS MOS                   
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
OVERALL...THE 12Z ECMWF TRACK SHOWING THE LO MOVING INTO THE ERN                
U.P. IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THE DEEPER/FARTHER W SOLN OF THE NAM AND              
THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER/FARTHER E TRACK SHOWN BY THE GFS. COMPROMISE                
BTWN THESE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD SUG A RA/SN LINE FM P53 TO JUST SE OF            
IMT USING H925-85 CRITICAL THKNS OF 676M. FCST SDNGS FM BOTH MODELS             
SUG PCPN WL BE EITHER RA OR SN...WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LYR ABV A SUB            
FRZG LYR OF SGIFNICANCE TO CAUSE FZRA/PL THAT WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL             
OF A MID WINTER SYS. AS FAR AS PCPN AMTS ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND            
ESPECIALLY THE NAM BOTH SHOW SHARP H8-7 FGEN ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE            
H7 LO TRACK (NAM PLACEMENT IS A BIT FARTHER W...GFS TO THE E). WITH             
4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVBL AND A 12HR PD OF UVV...SN AMTS OF                 
8"/12 HRS WOULD BE PSBL UNDER THIS SHARPEST DEFORMATION ZN. ATLHOUGH            
SN/WATER RATIOS WL LIKELY BE LO (10:1) WITH RATHER NARROW DGZ SHOWN             
ON BUFKIT SDNGS...HVY/WET NATURE OF THE SN AND LOWER WRNG CRITERIA              
(6"/12HRS) FOR THE WI BORDER COUNTIES SEEMS TO JUSTIFY A WATCH                  
THERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE BULK OF SN WL FALL DURING THE NGT WHEN HTG             
OF THE LLVLS WL BE ABSENT. ALSO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR MQT                
COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF THE PCPN WITH             
FAIRLY TIGHT NNE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN CONTOURS. QUICK              
LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO JUSTIFY WATCH ISSUANCE WITH CLASSIC              
COMMA HEAD HIER RH PATTERN ON THE CYC SIDE OF H7 LO/H5 VORT TRACK               
THRU THE UPR LKS.                                                               
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH/APX/LOT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
COLD POOL ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING                
STRIKES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LIGHTNING SHOULD AVOID THE                   
TERMINALS...HOWEVER A CB HAS BEEN NOTED AT KSAW BTWN 18-20Z DUE TO              
THE PROXIMITY OF 18-20KFT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MQT COUNTY.             
THE LOW OVER NRN WI WILL MOVE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING.               
THIS SHOULD ALLOW VSBYS TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER             
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LOW               
MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND                    
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. WILL NEED TO                 
WATCH FOR SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS FZDZ OVERNIGHT.                       
AS ADDITIONAL DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES TUE                            
MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR ALL SITES BY 14Z.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND INTO ONTARIO             
LATE THIS EVENING. 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES             
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN THIS EVENING.  THE             
NEXT PERIOD OF POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO              
WEDNESDAY...AS A SFC LOW SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE TRACK               
SHOULD BRING IT OVER FAR EASTERN LS TO LH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
KEEPING JUST BELOW GALES AT THE MOMENT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
IF GALES WILL BE NEEDED.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...YET                   
ANOTHER SFC LOW SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LM FRIDAY.  AT THIS                
TIME THIS LAST LOW SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE             
FOR LS WIDE GALES FRIDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005-010-011.                                               
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
728 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW GENERAL WRN                   
TROFFING AND ERN RDGING OVR THE CONUS. NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV IS              
MOVING THRU SRN MN EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH SFC LO NOT FAR FM MPX.                
QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD HAS OVERSPRD THE FA...BUT WARM CONVEYOR               
BELT PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA IS CONFINED TO THE WRN COUNTIES AS 00Z              
APX/GRB RAOBS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY AIR BLO THE MID/HI LVL MSTR (H7                
DWPT DEPRESSION AT APX IS 32C...H85 DWPT DEPRESSION AT GRB IS 27C).             
AXIS OF MAIN BAND OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN EXTENDS FM NW WI SSE               
INTO SCNTRL WI. THE ERN EDGE OF THIS PCPN IS MOVING EWD ONLY SLOWLY             
INTO THE DRY AIR DESPITE WHAT APPEARS ON WV IMAGERY TO BE A FAIRLY              
STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHRTWV THRU SRN MN. THE PROBLEM                   
APPEARS TO BE THE SSE LLVL FLOW E OF THE PCPN AXIS THAT IS PROVIDING            
A CONTINUOUS FEED OF THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE GRB/APX SDNGS AS WELL             
AS A LACK OF ANY GLFMEX MSTR FEED AT H85. WELL DEFINED DRY SLOTTING             
IS MOVING INTO WRN WI BEHIND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RA. MUCH HEAVIER            
WINTRY PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN THE DEFORMATION ZN/COMMA HEAD ON            
THE CYC COLD SIDE OF THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK FM NRN MN INTO THE ERN             
DAKOTAS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS OBSVD FARTHER W IN THE DAKOTAS (00Z H85              
DWPT DEPRESSION IS 21C AT BIS WITH SFC DWPTS AOB 0F THERE). NEXT                
SHRTWV OF CONCERN IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RA CHCS THRU TDAY AND                  
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PCPN LATER TDAY/THIS EVNG. FOCUS FOR                   
TUE/WED TURNS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.            
FOR TDAY...INCSRGLY OCCLUDED LO IS FCST TO MOVE OVER SCNTRL LK SUP              
BY 00Z TUE. 00Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF             
WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN SHOWING INCRSGLY NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT              
SHRA PINCHED OFF BY DRY SLOTTING FM THE W AND EVAPORATION OF PCPN               
MOVING INTO THE BONE DRY AIR TO THE E IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY GLFMEX              
MSTR FEED. IN FACT...MODEL APPEARS TO DEGENERATE MAIN BODY OF RA                
INTO JUST SOME SCT SHRA BY THE TIME WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM                    
CONVEYOR BELT REACHES ERY LATE IN THE MRNG. FCST WL REFLECT                     
DIMINISHING POPS TO THE E. IN LGT OF THESE EXPECTATIONS AND WITH                
ABSENCE OF ANY LGT STRIKES DURING THE NGT...REMOVED MENTION OF TS FM            
THE DECAYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT WL THEN END                
PCPN CHCS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME. HOWEVER... ARRIVAL OF                      
SHRTWV/COLD POCKET ALF AS WELL AS AN AREA OF DEEPER MSTR WL BRING A             
RETURN OF MORE SHRA CHCS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENHANCED BY ANY            
SFC HTG IN THE DRY SLOT. MODIFIED NAM F18 SDNG FOR 53/39 YIELDS ONLY            
135 J/KG...SO EVEN THOUGH SITUATION MIGHT SEEM FVRBL FOR TS DOUBT               
THERE WL BE STRG CNVCTN. PLUS NO TS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY AFTN UNDER              
DRY SLOT. OTRW...WL GO WITH THE HIER POPS UP TO HI CHC ON THE CYC               
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK. NEW NAM FCST INDICATES THE AIRMASS WL BCM             
COLD ENUF FOR SN TO MIX WITH THE PCPN ONLY LATE OVER THE W AS SOME              
COLD LLVL AIR FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE CYC NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE             
LO MOVING TO THE NE.                                                            
AS STACKED LO PULLS TO THE NE TNGT AND GIVES WAY TO RISING HGTS/                
DNVA/MID LVL DRYING...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRASN TO DIMINISH WITH              
LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS HINT AT LINGERING LLVL MSTR             
HANGING IN OVER THE W WITH CYC NNW FLOW/TRAJECTORIES FM THE N                   
PREVENTING INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS. SO EXPECT              
LO CLD TO LINGER ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WITH                   
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INFLUX OF COLD AIR STRENGTHENING INVRN.                      
HOWEVER...SFC AIR OVER NW ONTARIO TO THE N OF PCPN SHIELD IS ALSO               
QUITE DRY...SO NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO HANG ON TO NR SFC MSTR TOO              
LONG...A TYPICAL BIAS OF LATE. BEST CHC FOR CLRG WL BE OVER THE                 
SCNTRL ZNS WHERE FLOW WL BE DOWNSLOPING. MOS FCST LO TEMPS ARE QUITE            
SIMILAR...BUT WL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY            
HI STABILITY/SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIR INFLUX.                                 
WEAK HI PRES RDG EXTENDING SWD FM CENTER OVER HUDSON BAY WL BE IN               
CONTROL ON TUE MRNG AND BRING DRY WX INTO THE AFTN...BUT FOCUS IN               
THE AFTN WL SHIFT TO THE SCNTRL PLAINS...WHERE SFC LO PRES WL BE                
DVLPG IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARRIVAL OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC             
NW. OVERALL...NCEP PREFERS THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS               
LO...WITH THE TIMING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY THIS                  
MODEL. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC LO REACHING NCNTRL IL BY 00Z                 
WED... BUT A SLOWER VERSION WOULD LINE UP NICELY WITH THE NAM/GFS               
FCST POSITION IN SCNTRL IL IN ADVANCE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV               
LIFTING OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF. EXPECT HI CLD TO BE ON THE INCRS              
ON TUE IN THE INCRSGLY DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WITH THE CLD BASE GRDLY               
LOWERING WITH INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE 290-300K SFCS.                
SINCE NCEP PREFERS A SLOWER TIMING AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW QUITE A              
BIT OF MID LVL DRY AIR OVER THE SCNTRL THRU 00Z WED...OPTED TO SLOW             
ARRIVAL OF PCPN FM THE S A FEW HRS A BIT IN LINE WITH GFS MOS                   
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
OVERALL...THE 12Z ECMWF TRACK SHOWING THE LO MOVING INTO THE ERN                
U.P. IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THE DEEPER/FARTHER W SOLN OF THE NAM AND              
THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER/FARTHER E TRACK SHOWN BY THE GFS. COMPROMISE                
BTWN THESE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD SUG A RA/SN LINE FM P53 TO JUST SE OF            
IMT USING H925-85 CRITICAL THKNS OF 676M. FCST SDNGS FM BOTH MODELS             
SUG PCPN WL BE EITHER RA OR SN...WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LYR ABV A SUB            
FRZG LYR OF SGIFNICANCE TO CAUSE FZRA/PL THAT WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL             
OF A MID WINTER SYS. AS FAR AS PCPN AMTS ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND            
ESPECIALLY THE NAM BOTH SHOW SHARP H8-7 FGEN ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE            
H7 LO TRACK (NAM PLACEMENT IS A BIT FARTHER W...GFS TO THE E). WITH             
4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVBL AND A 12HR PD OF UVV...SN AMTS OF                 
8"/12 HRS WOULD BE PSBL UNDER THIS SHARPEST DEFORMATION ZN. ATLHOUGH            
SN/WATER RATIOS WL LIKELY BE LO (10:1) WITH RATHER NARROW DGZ SHOWN             
ON BUFKIT SDNGS...HVY/WET NATURE OF THE SN AND LOWER WRNG CRITERIA              
(6"/12HRS) FOR THE WI BORDER COUNTIES SEEMS TO JUSTIFY A WATCH                  
THERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE BULK OF SN WL FALL DURING THE NGT WHEN HTG             
OF THE LLVLS WL BE ABSENT. ALSO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR MQT                
COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF THE PCPN WITH             
FAIRLY TIGHT NNE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN CONTOURS. QUICK              
LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO JUSTIFY WATCH ISSUANCE WITH CLASSIC              
COMMA HEAD HIER RH PATTERN ON THE CYC SIDE OF H7 LO/H5 VORT TRACK               
THRU THE UPR LKS.                                                               
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH/APX/LOT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING AT SAW.               
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SHOWED UP WELL ON IR SATELLITE IMG OVER SE MN             
AT 11Z.  THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OVER US THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRY AIR               
HAS BEEN WORKING INTO EASTERN WI...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY BREAK IN               
THE OVC WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  WILL KEEP BKN-OVC THROUGH THE ENTIRE              
PERIOD...MAINLY LIFT TO IFR CEIGS AND VIS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL                  
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD.                    
STILL...SOME SHOWERS COULD STILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. MELTING                 
SNOW...ALONG WITH WHAT FELL THIS MORNING WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE AND KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS LOCKED IN A BIT LONGER ACROSS                
UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND INTO ONTARIO             
LATE THIS EVENING. 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES             
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN THIS EVENING.  THE             
NEXT PERIOD OF POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO              
WEDNESDAY...AS A SFC LOW SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE TRACK               
SHOULD BRING IT OVER FAR EASTERN LS TO LH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
KEEPING JUST BELOW GALES AT THE MOMENT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
IF GALES WILL BE NEEDED.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...YET                   
ANOTHER SFC LOW SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LM FRIDAY.  AT THIS                
TIME THIS LAST LOW SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE             
FOR LS WIDE GALES FRIDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.                                                      
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ/KF                                                                
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
427 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW GENERAL WRN                   
TROFFING AND ERN RDGING OVR THE CONUS. NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV IS              
MOVING THRU SRN MN EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH SFC LO NOT FAR FM MPX.                
QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD HAS OVERSPRD THE FA...BUT WARM CONVEYOR               
BELT PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA IS CONFINED TO THE WRN COUNTIES AS 00Z              
APX/GRB RAOBS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY AIR BLO THE MID/HI LVL MSTR (H7                
DWPT DEPRESSION AT APX IS 32C...H85 DWPT DEPRESSION AT GRB IS 27C).             
AXIS OF MAIN BAND OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN EXTENDS FM NW WI SSE               
INTO SCNTRL WI. THE ERN EDGE OF THIS PCPN IS MOVING EWD ONLY SLOWLY             
INTO THE DRY AIR DESPITE WHAT APPEARS ON WV IMAGERY TO BE A FAIRLY              
STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHRTWV THRU SRN MN. THE PROBLEM                   
APPEARS TO BE THE SSE LLVL FLOW E OF THE PCPN AXIS THAT IS PROVIDING            
A CONTINUOUS FEED OF THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE GRB/APX SDNGS AS WELL             
AS A LACK OF ANY GLFMEX MSTR FEED AT H85. WELL DEFINED DRY SLOTTING             
IS MOVING INTO WRN WI BEHIND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RA. MUCH HEAVIER            
WINTRY PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN THE DEFORMATION ZN/COMMA HEAD ON            
THE CYC COLD SIDE OF THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK FM NRN MN INTO THE ERN             
DAKOTAS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS OBSVD FARTHER W IN THE DAKOTAS (00Z H85              
DWPT DEPRESSION IS 21C AT BIS WITH SFC DWPTS AOB 0F THERE). NEXT                
SHRTWV OF CONCERN IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RA CHCS THRU TDAY AND                  
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PCPN LATER TDAY/THIS EVNG. FOCUS FOR                   
TUE/WED TURNS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.            
FOR TDAY...INCSRGLY OCCLUDED LO IS FCST TO MOVE OVER SCNTRL LK SUP              
BY 00Z TUE. 00Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF             
WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN SHOWING INCRSGLY NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT              
SHRA PINCHED OFF BY DRY SLOTTING FM THE W AND EVAPORATION OF PCPN               
MOVING INTO THE BONE DRY AIR TO THE E IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY GLFMEX              
MSTR FEED. IN FACT...MODEL APPEARS TO DEGENERATE MAIN BODY OF RA                
INTO JUST SOME SCT SHRA BY THE TIME WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM                    
CONVEYOR BELT REACHES ERY LATE IN THE MRNG. FCST WL REFLECT                     
DIMINISHING POPS TO THE E. IN LGT OF THESE EXPECTATIONS AND WITH                
ABSENCE OF ANY LGT STRIKES DURING THE NGT...REMOVED MENTION OF TS FM            
THE DECAYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT WL THEN END                
PCPN CHCS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME. HOWEVER... ARRIVAL OF                      
SHRTWV/COLD POCKET ALF AS WELL AS AN AREA OF DEEPER MSTR WL BRING A             
RETURN OF MORE SHRA CHCS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENHANCED BY ANY            
SFC HTG IN THE DRY SLOT. MODIFIED NAM F18 SDNG FOR 53/39 YIELDS ONLY            
135 J/KG...SO EVEN THOUGH SITUATION MIGHT SEEM FVRBL FOR TS DOUBT               
THERE WL BE STRG CNVCTN. PLUS NO TS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY AFTN UNDER              
DRY SLOT. OTRW...WL GO WITH THE HIER POPS UP TO HI CHC ON THE CYC               
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK. NEW NAM FCST INDICATES THE AIRMASS WL BCM             
COLD ENUF FOR SN TO MIX WITH THE PCPN ONLY LATE OVER THE W AS SOME              
COLD LLVL AIR FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE CYC NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE             
LO MOVING TO THE NE.                                                            
AS STACKED LO PULLS TO THE NE TNGT AND GIVES WAY TO RISING HGTS/                
DNVA/MID LVL DRYING...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHRASN TO DIMINISH WITH              
LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS HINT AT LINGERING LLVL MSTR             
HANGING IN OVER THE W WITH CYC NNW FLOW/TRAJECTORIES FM THE N                   
PREVENTING INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS. SO EXPECT              
LO CLD TO LINGER ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP WITH                   
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INFLUX OF COLD AIR STRENGTHENING INVRN.                      
HOWEVER...SFC AIR OVER NW ONTARIO TO THE N OF PCPN SHIELD IS ALSO               
QUITE DRY...SO NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO HANG ON TO NR SFC MSTR TOO              
LONG...A TYPICAL BIAS OF LATE. BEST CHC FOR CLRG WL BE OVER THE                 
SCNTRL ZNS WHERE FLOW WL BE DOWNSLOPING. MOS FCST LO TEMPS ARE QUITE            
SIMILAR...BUT WL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR RELATIVELY            
HI STABILITY/SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIR INFLUX.                                 
WEAK HI PRES RDG EXTENDING SWD FM CENTER OVER HUDSON BAY WL BE IN               
CONTROL ON TUE MRNG AND BRING DRY WX INTO THE AFTN...BUT FOCUS IN               
THE AFTN WL SHIFT TO THE SCNTRL PLAINS...WHERE SFC LO PRES WL BE                
DVLPG IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARRIVAL OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC             
NW. OVERALL...NCEP PREFERS THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS               
LO...WITH THE TIMING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPLICITLY FCST BY THIS                  
MODEL. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE SFC LO REACHING NCNTRL IL BY 00Z                 
WED... BUT A SLOWER VERSION WOULD LINE UP NICELY WITH THE NAM/GFS               
FCST POSITION IN SCNTRL IL IN ADVANCE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV               
LIFTING OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF. EXPECT HI CLD TO BE ON THE INCRS              
ON TUE IN THE INCRSGLY DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW WITH THE CLD BASE GRDLY               
LOWERING WITH INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE 290-300K SFCS.                
SINCE NCEP PREFERS A SLOWER TIMING AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW QUITE A              
BIT OF MID LVL DRY AIR OVER THE SCNTRL THRU 00Z WED...OPTED TO SLOW             
ARRIVAL OF PCPN FM THE S A FEW HRS A BIT IN LINE WITH GFS MOS                   
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
OVERALL...THE 12Z ECMWF TRACK SHOWING THE LO MOVING INTO THE ERN                
U.P. IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THE DEEPER/FARTHER W SOLN OF THE NAM AND              
THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER/FARTHER E TRACK SHOWN BY THE GFS. COMPROMISE                
BTWN THESE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD SUG A RA/SN LINE FM P53 TO JUST SE OF            
IMT USING H925-85 CRITICAL THKNS OF 676M. FCST SDNGS FM BOTH MODELS             
SUG PCPN WL BE EITHER RA OR SN...WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LYR ABV A SUB            
FRZG LYR OF SGIFNICANCE TO CAUSE FZRA/PL THAT WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL             
OF A MID WINTER SYS. AS FAR AS PCPN AMTS ARE CONCERNED...THE GFS AND            
ESPECIALLY THE NAM BOTH SHOW SHARP H8-7 FGEN ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE            
H7 LO TRACK (NAM PLACEMENT IS A BIT FARTHER W...GFS TO THE E). WITH             
4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVBL AND A 12HR PD OF UVV...SN AMTS OF                 
8"/12 HRS WOULD BE PSBL UNDER THIS SHARPEST DEFORMATION ZN. ATLHOUGH            
SN/WATER RATIOS WL LIKELY BE LO (10:1) WITH RATHER NARROW DGZ SHOWN             
ON BUFKIT SDNGS...HVY/WET NATURE OF THE SN AND LOWER WRNG CRITERIA              
(6"/12HRS) FOR THE WI BORDER COUNTIES SEEMS TO JUSTIFY A WATCH                  
THERE...ESPECIALLY SINCE BULK OF SN WL FALL DURING THE NGT WHEN HTG             
OF THE LLVLS WL BE ABSENT. ALSO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR MQT                
COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF THE PCPN WITH             
FAIRLY TIGHT NNE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN CONTOURS. QUICK              
LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO JUSTIFY WATCH ISSUANCE WITH CLASSIC              
COMMA HEAD HIER RH PATTERN ON THE CYC SIDE OF H7 LO/H5 VORT TRACK               
THRU THE UPR LKS.                                                               
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH/APX/LOT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY BELOW THE CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS.                
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO CMX AT 09Z...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING                 
THANKS TO THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LIFR POSSIBLE AT CMX BETWEEN               
14-17Z. A SE WIND AT SAW IS A WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW THERE...WITH IFR              
VIS AND MVFR CIGS FIGURED LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL                
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM                
SYSTEM CROSSES UPPER MI...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO DIRECTIONS MORE             
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME                
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM                 
COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. DIURNAL PCPN NOT NEARLY AS              
FAVORABLE AT CMX...BUT KEPT MVFR CIG DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS...AND             
WITH AN UPSLOPE NW WIND AT CMX FOR -FZDZ. NW AT SAW SHOULD RESULT IN            
A DRY FORECAST WITH SOME MVFR CIGS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND INTO ONTARIO             
LATE THIS EVENING. 20 TO 30 KT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES             
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN THIS EVENING.  THE             
NEXT PERIOD OF POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO              
WEDNESDAY...AS A SFC LOW SLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE TRACK               
SHOULD BRING IT OVER FAR EASTERN LS TO LH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
KEEPING JUST BELOW GALES AT THE MOMENT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
IF GALES WILL BE NEEDED.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...YET                   
ANOTHER SFC LOW SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LM FRIDAY.  AT THIS                
TIME THIS LAST LOW SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE             
FOR LS WIDE GALES FRIDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.                                                      
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ/KF                                                                
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 AM EDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
.UPDATE... (ISSUED 741 PM EDT SUN APR 6)                                        
LATEST 18Z NAM/GFS AND 21Z RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF             
PCPN INTO THE CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW REASONS FOR THIS.                  
FIRST...A LOOP OF THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB HEIGHTS                 
INDICATES BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN SE            
SOUTH DAKOTA BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS PLACES THE AREA UNDER             
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SECOND...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS             
AT HOUGHTON...SAWYER...APPLETON AND MUSKEGON ALL DEPICT A LOT OF DRY            
AIR BELOW 700 MB (APPLETON AND MUSKEGON HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF             
20-25C BETWEEN 700-800MB). SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS BECOMING                      
NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS END UP TURNING SOUTH TO                 
SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH WOULD KEEP FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. RADAR            
LOOP OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER ERN MN/ERN IA AND FAR WESTERN WI            
HAVE SHOWN SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS DRY AIR...WITH A CLUSTER OF              
HEAVIER PCPN NW OF DUBUQUE HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AS IT LIFTED NNE.              
THEREFORE...THINK THE SLOWER TREND DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM/GFS AND              
21Z RUC IS VALID...AND HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT                   
TOWARDS THESE MODELS.                                                           
THERE ARE A FEW OTHER ITEMS TO NOTE TOO.  THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE UPPER LOW...SEEN WELL ON VISIBLE WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE             
WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN MSP AND DSM...HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD QUICKLY.            
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COMBINATION OF THE FAST MOVING DRY SLOT AND THE             
DRY AIR OVER ERN WI COULD CAUSE THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN TO                  
NARROW WITH TIME. ALSO...WITH MODELS TAKING A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW            
ACROSS SRN MN AND BUILDING RIDGING OCCURRING UP ACROSS THE CWA AND              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WARMER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS PUSHED                   
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE GFS/NAM BOTH DEPICT                 
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 3000 FT AT 06Z AND 12Z MON OVER               
MUCH OF NW WI...SUGGESTING ONLY RAIN WILL FALL. GIVEN THIS...PULLED             
ANY MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS THE U.P..                                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED 445 PM EDT SUN APR 6)                                      
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. STRONG SHORTWAVE               
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS STILL SPINNING OUT OVR SD. RIBBON OF INCREASED              
H85-H7 MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE FEATURE IS RESULTING IN SWATH            
OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM FM NORTHERN IA INTO WESTERN WI            
AND MUCH OF MN. DEFORMATION PCPN IN FORM OF HEAVY SNOW HAS AFFECTED             
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN MUCH OF THE DAY. SO FAR...JUST MID                  
CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS NO PCPN HAS MADE IT INTO UPR MI DUE              
TO VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-MID LEVELS SEEN ON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AT SAW               
AND 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT GRB/DVN. MUCH FARTHER UPSTREAM ON WEST            
EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...CLUSTER OF SHORTWAVES ARE SHIFTING             
ONTO THE WESTERN COAST. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY. IT IS THIS LOW THAT                
COULD BRING NEXT SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO UPR MI TUE-WED.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... (ISSUED 445 PM EDT SUN APR 6)               
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPR LOW AND SFC LOW OVR MN LEADS MINIMAL                  
PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. SINCE UPR MI IS WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF               
SFC LOW...JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED. EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR WRN UPR NEAR             
IWD WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIX WITH RAIN LATE. AS FOR             
PCPN COVERAGE...THAT IS STILL UNFOLDING AT THIS HOUR.                           
FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE               
FEATURES THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHOWERS ARE CAPTURED WELL LOOKING              
AT 300K ISENTROPIC SFC (H7-H6). MOST CONCENTRATED PCPN OCCURS THIS              
EVENING OVR FAR WEST UPR MI UPSTREAM OF CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS.               
COULD BE A LULL AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AS NEXT SHOWERS IN             
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOP THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF COLD               
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SECOND BATCH OF               
RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 06Z IN WESTERN CWA AND MORE TOWARD               
12Z IN CNTRL. DID NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC YET AS ONGOING WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP SOME SHOWERS EARLIER                  
AHEAD OF THE MORE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED AXIS OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS.                 
HIGHEST POPS ON MON WILL BE OVR CNTRL AND EAST CWA AS DEEP MOISTURE             
AND LIFT SHIFT ACROSS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES               
OF THUNDER OVR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING ON EDGE OF               
DRY SLOT AS COOLING ALOFT (H5 TEMPS BLO -25C) AND LINGERING                     
925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE (925MB TEMPS NEAR +8C) STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.            
BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVR NORTHERN LK MI INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR            
MI.                                                                             
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVR MUCH OF            
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE OF             
SHOWERS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR AFTER MORNING PCPN AND            
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEPART. MIXING TO H9 IN AFTN SUPPORTS TEMPS WELL INTO            
THE 50S OVR CNTRL AND ERN CWA WHILE TEMPS SHOULD STAY STEADY OR                 
SLOWLY FALL FAR WEST AS COLD AIR BANKED OVR MN ALL WEEKEND FINALLY              
WORKS TOWARD THE EAST. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...ANY RAIN                 
SHOWERS COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. NO ACCUM THOUGH AS            
SFC TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE 32.                                          
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)... (ISSUED 445 PM EDT SUN APR 6)                
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH 2 STORM SYSTEMS            
TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL BE LATE IN               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE TO THE UPPER LAKES               
WED MORNING. GFS...LIKE A FEW OF ITS RECENT RUNS...IS AN OUTLIER                
SOLUTION...BEING WEAKER WITH SHORTWAVE AND FARTHER E WITH SFC LOW.              
WITH LACK OF SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODELS...WILL DISCARD ITS                   
SOLUTION. GLOBAL CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN                  
CLOSING OFF A SMALL 500MB LOW AS SYSTEM REACHES THE UPPER LAKES.                
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN PLACEMENT             
OF SFC LOW OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI AND MIDLEVEL CENTER OVER WRN UPPER             
MI AT 12Z WED. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF               
MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...AND SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW                 
SHOWING EXCELLENT CONTINUITY ON THIS TRACK...WILL UTILIZE                       
ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. BY THE WAY...              
THE NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS SLIGHTLY            
W AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING INTO CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI.                
FOR THE DETAILS...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PCPN WITH EXITING SYSTEM MON              
WILL END MON NIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH            
OF THE DAY TUE. AS SHORTWAVE HEADS OUT OF THE WRN PLAINS TUE MORNING            
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING...NICE BULLSEYE OF               
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS NE TOWARD THE             
UPPER LAKES AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF TO A MIDLEVEL LOW. IN              
RESPONSE...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A SURGE              
OF GULF MOISTURE N WITH INTENSIFYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. 295K SFC                
(700-750MB) SHOWS MIXING RATIOS OF 4G/KG AVBL TUE NIGHT WHICH COULD             
TRANSLATE TO UP TO 8 INCHES OF WET SNOW WHERE PCPN CAN FALL AS ALL              
SNOW. SINCE DETAILED FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AVBL FOR THE PREFERRED              
MODELS...USE OF 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS             
MAINLY SNOW W OF ROUGHLY A KIMT TO KMQT LINE WITH PCPN TRENDING                 
TOWARD MAINLY RAIN ALONG LAKE MI SHORELINE. WHERE PCPN FALLS MOSTLY             
AS SNOW...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WET/HVY SNOWFALL WITH LOW SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS. AT THE MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN            
THE 4-7 INCH RANGE WEST OF KIMT TO KMQT. PCPN WILL DIMINISH WED AS              
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.                                                              
THU THRU SUN...FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS...THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL                    
CANADIAN/GFS/ECWMF RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO            
AFFECT THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEK. LATEST ROUND              
OF MODEL RUNS (00Z/06Z/12Z TODAY) HAVE NOT WAVERED MUCH...SO THERE              
CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG/PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR SYSTEM. OVER             
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODEL FCST TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES HAS RANGED             
FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN TO THE CNTRL OR EVEN LWR GREAT LAKES...             
RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF OUTCOMES FOR UPPER MI RANGING FROM VERY               
WARM WITH SHRA/TSRA TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO VERY LITTLE PCPN.                
OBVIOUSLY...DETAILS WILL BE UNCERTAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...BUT               
THE OVERALL TREND RECENTLY HAS BEEN TO NARROW TRACK DOWN SOMEWHAT TO            
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LWR MI. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS                  
RECENT TREND...THIS SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY FAR ENOUGH OUT INTO THE FCST            
PERIOD THAT RECENT TRENDS CANNOT BE RELIED ON. ALL THAT CAN BE SAID             
IS THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR SPRING STORM IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT              
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THAT IT IS ONE THAT             
COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER STORM AFFECTING AT             
LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI. TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT THRU SAT.            
FCST WILL INCLUDE RAIN/SNOW AS PTYPES FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME FRAME.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY BELOW THE CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS.                
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO CMX AT 09Z...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING                 
THANKS TO THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LIFR POSSIBLE AT CMX BETWEEN               
14-17Z. A SE WIND AT SAW IS A WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW THERE...WITH IFR              
VIS AND MVFR CIGS FIGURED LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL                
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM                
SYSTEM CROSSES UPPER MI...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO DIRECTIONS MORE             
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME                
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM                 
COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. DIURNAL PCPN NOT NEARLY AS              
FAVORABLE AT CMX...BUT KEPT MVFR CIG DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS...AND             
WITH AN UPSLOPE NW WIND AT CMX FOR -FZDZ. NW AT SAW SHOULD RESULT IN            
A DRY FORECAST WITH SOME MVFR CIGS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE LAKE WITH THREE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS                
IMPACTING WINDS THIS WEEK. INITIALLY...WILL CONTEND WITH LOW END                
NORTHEAST GALES OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AS SFC LOW PUSHES INTO                 
WESTERN UPR MI. NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...TO 30 KNOTS...              
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY...AGAIN OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR DUE TO NE                 
WINDS FUNNELING TOWARD HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR. FINALLY...A STRONG LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO UPR GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK MAY PRODUCE              
GALES OVR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MON LSZ162.                                   
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLA                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...AJ/KF                                                                
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
741 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
IN ADDITION TO INSERTION OF UPDATE SECTION...UPDATED AVIATION                   
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.                                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST 18Z NAM/GFS AND 21Z RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF             
PCPN INTO THE CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW REASONS FOR THIS.                  
FIRST...A LOOP OF THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB HEIGHTS                 
INDICATES BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN SE            
SOUTH DAKOTA BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS PLACES THE AREA UNDER             
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SECOND...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS             
AT HOUGHTON...SAWYER...APPLETON AND MUSKEGON ALL DEPICT A LOT OF DRY            
AIR BELOW 700 MB (APPLETON AND MUSKEGON HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF             
20-25C BETWEEN 700-800MB). SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS BECOMING                      
NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS END UP TURNING SOUTH TO                 
SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH WOULD KEEP FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. RADAR            
LOOP OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER ERN MN/ERN IA AND FAR WESTERN WI            
HAVE SHOWN SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS DRY AIR...WITH A CLUSTER OF              
HEAVIER PCPN NW OF DUBUQUE HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AS IT LIFTED NNE.              
THEREFORE...THINK THE SLOWER TREND DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM/GFS AND              
21Z RUC IS VALID...AND HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT                   
TOWARDS THESE MODELS.                                                           
THERE ARE A FEW OTHER ITEMS TO NOTE TOO.  THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE UPPER LOW...SEEN WELL ON VISIBLE WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE             
WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN MSP AND DSM...HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD QUICKLY.            
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COMBINATION OF THE FAST MOVING DRY SLOT AND THE             
DRY AIR OVER ERN WI COULD CAUSE THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN TO                  
NARROW WITH TIME. ALSO...WITH MODELS TAKING A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW            
ACROSS SRN MN AND BUILDING RIDGING OCCURRING UP ACROSS THE CWA AND              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WARMER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS PUSHED                   
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE GFS/NAM BOTH DEPICT                 
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 3000 FT AT 06Z AND 12Z MON OVER               
MUCH OF NW WI...SUGGESTING ONLY RAIN WILL FALL. GIVEN THIS...PULLED             
ANY MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS THE U.P..                                            
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. STRONG SHORTWAVE               
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS STILL SPINNING OUT OVR SD. RIBBON OF INCREASED              
H85-H7 MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE FEATURE IS RESULTING IN SWATH            
OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM FM NORTHERN IA INTO WESTERN WI            
AND MUCH OF MN. DEFORMATION PCPN IN FORM OF HEAVY SNOW HAS AFFECTED             
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN MUCH OF THE DAY. SO FAR...JUST MID                  
CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS NO PCPN HAS MADE IT INTO UPR MI DUE              
TO VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-MID LEVELS SEEN ON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AT SAW               
AND 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT GRB/DVN. MUCH FARTHER UPSTREAM ON WEST            
EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...CLUSTER OF SHORTWAVES ARE SHIFTING             
ONTO THE WESTERN COAST. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY. IT IS THIS LOW THAT                
COULD BRING NEXT SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO UPR MI TUE-WED.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPR LOW AND SFC LOW OVR MN LEADS MINIMAL                  
PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. SINCE UPR MI IS WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF               
SFC LOW...JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED. EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR WRN UPR NEAR             
IWD WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIX WITH RAIN LATE. AS FOR             
PCPN COVERAGE...THAT IS STILL UNFOLDING AT THIS HOUR.                           
FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE               
FEATURES THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHOWERS ARE CAPTURED WELL LOOKING              
AT 300K ISENTROPIC SFC (H7-H6). MOST CONCENTRATED PCPN OCCURS THIS              
EVENING OVR FAR WEST UPR MI UPSTREAM OF CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS.               
COULD BE A LULL AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AS NEXT SHOWERS IN             
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOP THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF COLD               
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SECOND BATCH OF               
RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 06Z IN WESTERN CWA AND MORE TOWARD               
12Z IN CNTRL. DID NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC YET AS ONGOING WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP SOME SHOWERS EARLIER                  
AHEAD OF THE MORE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED AXIS OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS.                 
HIGHEST POPS ON MON WILL BE OVR CNTRL AND EAST CWA AS DEEP MOISTURE             
AND LIFT SHIFT ACROSS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES               
OF THUNDER OVR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING ON EDGE OF               
DRY SLOT AS COOLING ALOFT (H5 TEMPS BLO -25C) AND LINGERING                     
925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE (925MB TEMPS NEAR +8C) STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.            
BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVR NORTHERN LK MI INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPR            
MI.                                                                             
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVR MUCH OF            
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE OF             
SHOWERS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR AFTER MORNING PCPN AND            
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEPART. MIXING TO H9 IN AFTN SUPPORTS TEMPS WELL INTO            
THE 50S OVR CNTRL AND ERN CWA WHILE TEMPS SHOULD STAY STEADY OR                 
SLOWLY FALL FAR WEST AS COLD AIR BANKED OVR MN ALL WEEKEND FINALLY              
WORKS TOWARD THE EAST. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...ANY RAIN                 
SHOWERS COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. NO ACCUM THOUGH AS            
SFC TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE 32.                                          
.LONG TERM... (MON NIGHT THRU SUN)                                              
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH 2 STORM SYSTEMS            
TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL BE LATE IN               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE TO THE UPPER LAKES               
WED MORNING. GFS...LIKE A FEW OF ITS RECENT RUNS...IS AN OUTLIER                
SOLUTION...BEING WEAKER WITH SHORTWAVE AND FARTHER E WITH SFC LOW.              
WITH LACK OF SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODELS...WILL DISCARD ITS                   
SOLUTION. GLOBAL CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN                  
CLOSING OFF A SMALL 500MB LOW AS SYSTEM REACHES THE UPPER LAKES.                
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN PLACEMENT             
OF SFC LOW OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI AND MIDLEVEL CENTER OVER WRN UPPER             
MI AT 12Z WED. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF               
MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...AND SINCE THE ECMWF IS NOW                 
SHOWING EXCELLENT CONTINUITY ON THIS TRACK...WILL UTILIZE                       
ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. BY THE WAY...              
THE NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS SLIGHTLY            
W AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING INTO CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI.                
FOR THE DETAILS...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PCPN WITH EXITING SYSTEM MON              
WILL END MON NIGHT...AND THEN EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH            
OF THE DAY TUE. AS SHORTWAVE HEADS OUT OF THE WRN PLAINS TUE MORNING            
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EVENING...NICE BULLSEYE OF               
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS NE TOWARD THE             
UPPER LAKES AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF TO A MIDLEVEL LOW. IN              
RESPONSE...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM TRANSPORTS A SURGE              
OF GULF MOISTURE N WITH INTENSIFYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. 295K SFC                
(700-750MB) SHOWS MIXING RATIOS OF 4G/KG AVBL TUE NIGHT WHICH COULD             
TRANSLATE TO UP TO 8 INCHES OF WET SNOW WHERE PCPN CAN FALL AS ALL              
SNOW. SINCE DETAILED FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AVBL FOR THE PREFERRED              
MODELS...USE OF 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS             
MAINLY SNOW W OF ROUGHLY A KIMT TO KMQT LINE WITH PCPN TRENDING                 
TOWARD MAINLY RAIN ALONG LAKE MI SHORELINE. WHERE PCPN FALLS MOSTLY             
AS SNOW...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WET/HVY SNOWFALL WITH LOW SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS. AT THE MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN            
THE 4-7 INCH RANGE WEST OF KIMT TO KMQT. PCPN WILL DIMINISH WED AS              
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.                                                              
THU THRU SUN...FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS...THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL                    
CANADIAN/GFS/ECWMF RUNS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO            
AFFECT THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEK. LATEST ROUND              
OF MODEL RUNS (00Z/06Z/12Z TODAY) HAVE NOT WAVERED MUCH...SO THERE              
CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG/PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR SYSTEM. OVER             
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODEL FCST TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES HAS RANGED             
FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN TO THE CNTRL OR EVEN LWR GREAT LAKES...             
RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF OUTCOMES FOR UPPER MI RANGING FROM VERY               
WARM WITH SHRA/TSRA TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO VERY LITTLE PCPN.                
OBVIOUSLY...DETAILS WILL BE UNCERTAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...BUT               
THE OVERALL TREND RECENTLY HAS BEEN TO NARROW TRACK DOWN SOMEWHAT TO            
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LWR MI. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS                  
RECENT TREND...THIS SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY FAR ENOUGH OUT INTO THE FCST            
PERIOD THAT RECENT TRENDS CANNOT BE RELIED ON. ALL THAT CAN BE SAID             
IS THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR SPRING STORM IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT              
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THAT IT IS ONE THAT             
COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER STORM AFFECTING AT             
LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI. TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT THRU SAT.            
FCST WILL INCLUDE RAIN/SNOW AS PTYPES FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME FRAME.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER ERN                
MN/ERN IA AND WESTERN WI. AHEAD OF THIS PCPN...THE AIR IS VERY DRY              
BELOW THE CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AS SEEN ON TAMDAR               
SOUNDINGS. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF              
THIS PCPN...DESPITE THAT THE OVERALL STORM SYSTEM...LOCATED NEAR                
MSP...WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST. ONCE RAIN MOVES INTO CMX LATE                  
TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DROP THANKS TO THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE             
FLOW. HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBLITY FOR SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AT CMX                  
BETWEEN 14-17Z. A SE WIND AT SAW IS ALSO AN UPSLOPE WIND THERE...BUT            
IT IS NOT NEARLY AS DRAMATIC AT CMX. THUS...THE GOING POSSIBILTY OF             
IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS SEEM REASONABLE THERE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.              
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL             
PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES UPPER MI...ALLOWING WINDS TO                
TURN TO DIRECTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR              
IN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL                
PORTION OF THE STORM COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND               
HAVE REPRESENTED THIS AT SAW WITH A PROB30 GROUP OF MVFR VIS.                   
DIURNAL PCPN NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AT CMX...BUT STILL MAINTAINED A            
GOING MVFR CIG THERE DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
ACTIVE PERIOD ON THE LAKE WITH THREE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS                
IMPACTING WINDS THIS WEEK. INITIALLY...WILL CONTEND WITH LOW END                
NORTHEAST GALES OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AS SFC LOW PUSHES INTO                 
WESTERN UPR MI. NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...TO 30 KNOTS...              
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY...AGAIN OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR DUE TO NE                 
WINDS FUNNELLING TOWARD HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR. FINALLY...A STRONG LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO UPR GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK MAY PRODUCE              
GALES OVR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MON LSZ162.                                   
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLA                                                       
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOT OF DRY AIR ON TAMDAR SOUNDING FM KSAW AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT             
GRB/DVN. SO...PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE.              
LATEST NAM...RUC 13...AND LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE PCPN INTO FAR SW               
BTWN 21Z AND 03Z. BASED ON CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVR NORTHEAST IA INTO             
SOUTHEAST MN WENT FOR 21Z. IN OUR AREA...SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY BTWN            
ASX AND IWD AND THEN RUNS ACROSS NORTHERN UPR MI INTO LK SUPERIOR.              
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ESSENTIALLY LK SHORE AREAS OF FAR WEST ACROSS              
KEWEEANW TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 40. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE                
WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FM INFLUENCE OF SE FLOW OFF LK MI.                       
PCPN TONIGHT NOT AS FORMIDABLE ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. IN FACT...BASED            
ON QPF...CNTRL CWA MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN UNTIL AFT 06Z. THINK VERY               
DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC LOW/TROUGH MAY HAVE              
SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE TREND. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO                
CURRENT WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ATTM TO SEE HOW                
UPSTREAM PCPN PLAYS OUT THIS AFTN.                                              
UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS AND ZFPMQT UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV                 
MOVING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE ARCTIC VORTEX OVER SRN HUDSON              
BAY IS LIFTING TO THE NE. SFC COLD FNT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF COLD             
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTEX HAS STALLED FM NRN WI TO BTWN               
MNM-IMT AND JUST N OF ESC/ISQ. 03Z SFC TEMP IS 52 AT MNM WITH 200               
DEGREE WIND WHILE IMT IS 39 WITH A NNE WIND. BUT TREND IS FOR WINDS             
TO VEER MORE TO THE SSE...SO THIS FNT APPEARS TO BE RETURNING N AS A            
WARM FNT. 00Z GRB/APX/DVN RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY...SO NO PCPN AND JUST             
SOME SCT CLD COVER NOTED OVER THIS BNDRY IN THIS AREA. BUT SOME                 
SHRA/ ISOLD TS NOTED CLOSE TO THE BNDRY FM THE WRN CWA TO DLH WHERE             
RUC/ NAM ANALYSIS INDICATE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5C/KM WITH              
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO SHARPER H8-7 FGEN IN RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS OVER              
ONTARIO ON SRN FLANK OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX.                                      
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TIMING/IMPACT OF                 
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS.                                              
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO REACH SW MN BY 00Z MON...WITH             
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NR MPX. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 FNT SHIFTING TO THE            
NW AS SHRTWV TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. THIS SHIFT IN THE                   
POSITION OF THE H85 FNT SUGS THE DEEPER MSTR/WDSPRD PCPN ASSOCIATED             
WITH SHARPER H8-7 FGEN/RRQ OF UPR JET IN ONTARIO WL SHIFT TO THE NW             
AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY. CONSIDERING SHIFT IN FRONTAL                     
POSITION...DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS TO THE S AND SE...AND TENDENCY FOR            
LARGER SCALE FLOW TO TURN MORE SSE...SUSPECT ANY SHRA NOW OVER THE              
WRN ZNS WL DIMINISH BY ARND FCST ISSUANCE IN LINE WITH RUC/NAM FCST.            
TDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN             
ZNS. SSE FLOW OFF LK MI WL HOLD DOWN DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY FOR THE              
MOST PART (EXCEPT OVER THE WRN ZNS WHERE THAT FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE)...             
BUT MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS STILL RESULTS IN TEMPS APRCHG               
55. ALTHOUGH THE H85 FNT LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE NW OF THE FA...THE               
BNDRY MAY GET HUNG UP OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE            
OF LK SUP AND TENDENCY FOR THIS DENSER AIR TO RETARD RETREAT OF NEAR            
SFC COOL POOL. SO MUCH COOLER THERE. ALTHOUGH THE SSE FLOW WOULD BE             
A WARMING WIND FM IWD-ONTONAGON...MORE CLDS/SHRA CHCS WL ARRIVE                 
THERE IN THE AFTN WITH APRCH OF DPVA/UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHRTWV             
AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR.                                                    
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW WI BY 12Z                 
MON...WITH SFC LO REACHING THE WRN CWA. AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR              
PUSHES ACRS THE FA OVERNGT IN THE DPVA/UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE              
ARPCHG SHRTWV...WL GO WITH ARRIVAL OF CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS W-E               
BEFORE DRY SLOTTING AFT 06Z IMPACTS THE WI BORDER ZNS. LOWERED HIEST            
POPS AS THE CONVEYOR BELT WORKS E INTO DRY AIR. PCPN WL BE ENTIRELY             
IN THE FORM OF RA EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IWD AREA LATE WITH ARRIVAL             
OF COLDER LLVL AIR IN CYC NLY FLOW LATE. BUT ANY SN WL BE                       
INSIGNFICANT WITH DRY SLOTTING ALF. MIN TEMPS WL APRCH 32 OVER THE              
FAR W...BUT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABV 32 ELSEWHERE.                       
ON MON...NAM/GFS FCST SHRTWV/SFC LO TO REACH NE LK SUP BY 00Z TUE.              
THE GFS FCST TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER S. PER NCEP PREFERENCE...TRENDED            
AWAY FM THE NAM TOWARD THE GFS. LARGER SCALE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR SHOULD EXIT THE ERN ZNS DURING THE AFTN             
WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING. THE GFS SHOWS PATCH OF HIER MSTR ON               
CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK IMPACTING THE FA...WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE            
RATES UNDER THE MSTR PATCH. WITH LLVL CYC FLOW...WL LINGER CHC POPS             
THRU THE DAY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THAT WL MORE LIKELY ON THE              
ACYC SIDE OF THE VORT TRACK AND EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE                
WAKE OF THE LO. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER PULLING                
LLVL COLD AIR INTO THE FA...SO WL RESTRICT MIX WITH SN OVER THE W               
HALF.                                                                           
ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NRN TIER WL END MON EVNG AS SHRTWV/SFC              
LO PULL TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO RISING HGTS/MSLP. BUT ACTIVE WX               
PATTERN WL CONTINUE AS NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF IS DUE TO            
LIFT FM THE SCNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUE AND INTO THE GRT LKS BY EARLY               
WED. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS                  
LOW...SO LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY AGAIN. PER               
NCEP GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS TO DETERMINE FCST DETAILS.               
ADJUSTED GOING FCST TO REFLECT HIER POPS OVER THE E WITH TREND                  
TOWARD NEW TRACK...BUT MAINTAINED HIER POPS THAN MIGHT OTRW BE                  
EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AS 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT            
FARTHER W. A FARTHER E TRACK ALSO IMPLIES MORE SN THAN FCST                     
BEFORE. SO NEW FCST INDICATES AT LEAST A MIX WITH SN EVEN OVER THE              
SE ZNS BEGINNING TUE AFTN/EVNG WHEN DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR ARRIVE S-N.            
INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AND STRONG NNE FLOW TO THE W OF THE STORM                 
TRACK LATE TUE NGT MAY BE ENUF TO CHG THE PCPN TO ALL SN EVEN                   
OVER THE SE BEFORE STORM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON WED...WITH            
POPS DIMINISHING SW-NE. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE                    
HEADLINES IF TRENDS WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYS CONTINUE.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS AFTN. WAVE OF                
SHOWERS OVR WESTERN WI COULD SKIRT CMX THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL OF               
MVFR DECK FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.             
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS TO SWEEP ACROSS BOTH TAF                  
SITES. EVEN A SLIM CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT SAW BUT KEPT OUT FOR NOW               
SINCE IT IS SUCH A LOW PROBABILITY. VSBY/CIGS NOT TOO LOW WITH THE              
RAIN...BUT ADDED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW                
CIGS/VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR AT CMX AFT 12Z. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY ALSO              
EXPECTED AT SAW BY MID MORNING ON MON.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A SERIES OF 3 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS TO 30 KTS COMMON. FUNNELING              
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LS ZONE SHOULD CREATE LOW                
35KT GALES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE                  
EASTERLY. THE SFC LOW TO OUR SE WILL MOVE TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE TO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE FILLING TO               
29.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE 30.1 INCH HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON 29.7 INCH LOW                
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL                
SLIDE NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD RESIDE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN             
LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF              
GALES FOR W LS TUESDAY NIGHT. BY LATE THURSDAY...29.4 INCH LOW                  
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO                        
WISCONSIN...WITH INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING               
     FOR LSZ162.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOT OF DRY AIR ON TAMDAR SOUNDING FM KSAW AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT             
GRB/DVN. SO...PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE.              
LATEST NAM...RUC 13...AND LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE PCPN INTO FAR SW               
BTWN 21Z AND 03Z. BASED ON CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVR NORTHEAST IA INTO             
SOUTHEAST MN WENT FOR 21Z. IN OUR AREA...SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY BTWN            
ASX AND IWD AND THEN RUNS ACROSS NORTHERN UPR MI INTO LK SUPERIOR.              
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ESSENTIALLY LK SHORE AREAS OF FAR WEST ACROSS              
KEWEEANW TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 40. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE                
WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FM INFLUENCE OF SE FLOW OFF LK MI.                       
PCPN TONIGHT NOT AS FORMIDABLE ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. IN FACT...BASED            
ON QPF...CNTRL CWA MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN UNTIL AFT 06Z. THINK VERY               
DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC LOW/TROUGH MAY HAVE              
SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE TREND. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO                
CURRENT WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ATTM TO SEE HOW                
UPSTREAM PCPN PLAYS OUT THIS AFTN.                                              
UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS AND ZFPMQT UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (...                                                                
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV                 
MOVING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE ARCTIC VORTEX OVER SRN HUDSON              
BAY IS LIFTING TO THE NE. SFC COLD FNT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF COLD             
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTEX HAS STALLED FM NRN WI TO BTWN               
MNM-IMT AND JUST N OF ESC/ISQ. 03Z SFC TEMP IS 52 AT MNM WITH 200               
DEGREE WIND WHILE IMT IS 39 WITH A NNE WIND. BUT TREND IS FOR WINDS             
TO VEER MORE TO THE SSE...SO THIS FNT APPEARS TO BE RETURNING N AS A            
WARM FNT. 00Z GRB/APX/DVN RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY...SO NO PCPN AND JUST             
SOME SCT CLD COVER NOTED OVER THIS BNDRY IN THIS AREA. BUT SOME                 
SHRA/ ISOLD TS NOTED CLOSE TO THE BNDRY FM THE WRN CWA TO DLH WHERE             
RUC/ NAM ANALYSIS INDICATE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5C/KM WITH              
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO SHARPER H8-7 FGEN IN RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS OVER              
ONTARIO ON SRN FLANK OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX.                                      
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TIMING/IMPACT OF                 
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS.                                              
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO REACH SW MN BY 00Z MON...WITH             
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NR MPX. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 FNT SHIFTING TO THE            
NW AS SHRTWV TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. THIS SHIFT IN THE                   
POSITION OF THE H85 FNT SUGS THE DEEPER MSTR/WDSPRD PCPN ASSOCIATED             
WITH SHARPER H8-7 FGEN/RRQ OF UPR JET IN ONTARIO WL SHIFT TO THE NW             
AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY. CONSIDERING SHIFT IN FRONTAL                     
POSITION...DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS TO THE S AND SE...AND TENDENCY FOR            
LARGER SCALE FLOW TO TURN MORE SSE...SUSPECT ANY SHRA NOW OVER THE              
WRN ZNS WL DIMINISH BY ARND FCST ISSUANCE IN LINE WITH RUC/NAM FCST.            
TDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN             
ZNS. SSE FLOW OFF LK MI WL HOLD DOWN DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY FOR THE              
MOST PART (EXCEPT OVER THE WRN ZNS WHERE THAT FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE)...             
BUT MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS STILL RESULTS IN TEMPS APRCHG               
55. ALTHOUGH THE H85 FNT LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE NW OF THE FA...THE               
BNDRY MAY GET HUNG UP OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE            
OF LK SUP AND TENDENCY FOR THIS DENSER AIR TO RETARD RETREAT OF NEAR            
SFC COOL POOL. SO MUCH COOLER THERE. ALTHOUGH THE SSE FLOW WOULD BE             
A WARMING WIND FM IWD-ONTONAGON...MORE CLDS/SHRA CHCS WL ARRIVE                 
THERE IN THE AFTN WITH APRCH OF DPVA/UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHRTWV             
AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR.                                                    
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW WI BY 12Z                 
MON...WITH SFC LO REACHING THE WRN CWA. AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR              
PUSHES ACRS THE FA OVERNGT IN THE DPVA/UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE              
ARPCHG SHRTWV...WL GO WITH ARRIVAL OF CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS W-E               
BEFORE DRY SLOTTING AFT 06Z IMPACTS THE WI BORDER ZNS. LOWERED HIEST            
POPS AS THE CONVEYOR BELT WORKS E INTO DRY AIR. PCPN WL BE ENTIRELY             
IN THE FORM OF RA EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IWD AREA LATE WITH ARRIVAL             
OF COLDER LLVL AIR IN CYC NLY FLOW LATE. BUT ANY SN WL BE                       
INSIGNFICANT WITH DRY SLOTTING ALF. MIN TEMPS WL APRCH 32 OVER THE              
FAR W...BUT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABV 32 ELSEWHERE.                       
ON MON...NAM/GFS FCST SHRTWV/SFC LO TO REACH NE LK SUP BY 00Z TUE.              
THE GFS FCST TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER S. PER NCEP PREFERENCE...TRENDED            
AWAY FM THE NAM TOWARD THE GFS. LARGER SCALE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR SHOULD EXIT THE ERN ZNS DURING THE AFTN             
WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING. THE GFS SHOWS PATCH OF HIER MSTR ON               
CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK IMPACTING THE FA...WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE            
RATES UNDER THE MSTR PATCH. WITH LLVL CYC FLOW...WL LINGER CHC POPS             
THRU THE DAY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THAT WL MORE LIKELY ON THE              
ACYC SIDE OF THE VORT TRACK AND EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE                
WAKE OF THE LO. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER PULLING                
LLVL COLD AIR INTO THE FA...SO WL RESTRICT MIX WITH SN OVER THE W               
HALF.                                                                           
ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NRN TIER WL END MON EVNG AS SHRTWV/SFC              
LO PULL TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO RISING HGTS/MSLP. BUT ACTIVE WX               
PATTERN WL CONTINUE AS NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF IS DUE TO            
LIFT FM THE SCNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUE AND INTO THE GRT LKS BY EARLY               
WED. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS                  
LOW...SO LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY AGAIN. PER               
NCEP GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS TO DETERMINE FCST DETAILS.               
ADJUSTED GOING FCST TO REFLECT HIER POPS OVER THE E WITH TREND                  
TOWARD NEW TRACK...BUT MAINTAINED HIER POPS THAN MIGHT OTRW BE                  
EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AS 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT            
FARTHER W. A FARTHER E TRACK ALSO IMPLIES MORE SN THAN FCST                     
BEFORE. SO NEW FCST INDICATES AT LEAST A MIX WITH SN EVEN OVER THE              
SE ZNS BEGINNING TUE AFTN/EVNG WHEN DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR ARRIVE S-N.            
INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AND STRONG NNE FLOW TO THE W OF THE STORM                 
TRACK LATE TUE NGT MAY BE ENUF TO CHG THE PCPN TO ALL SN EVEN                   
OVER THE SE BEFORE STORM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON WED...WITH            
POPS DIMINISHING SW-NE. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE                    
HEADLINES IF TRENDS WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYS CONTINUE.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT CMX. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE            
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT MVFR CEIGS ARE NOT                        
ANTICIPATED.  MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE...STAYING VFR                 
CEIGS AND VIS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AT BOTH SITES.  AT THAT TIME THE               
SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR...WITH -RA AND                
MVFR CEIGS FIGURED THROUGH 12Z.  DEPENDING ON INTENSITY AND HOW MUCH            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND...BR WITH LOWER VIS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE JUST AFTER 12Z.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A SERIES OF 3 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS TO 30 KTS COMMON. FUNNELING              
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LS ZONE SHOULD CREATE LOW                
35KT GALES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE                  
EASTERLY. THE SFC LOW TO OUR SE WILL MOVE TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE TO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE FILLING TO               
29.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE 30.1 INCH HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON 29.7 INCH LOW                
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL                
SLIDE NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD RESIDE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN             
LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF              
GALES FOR W LS TUESDAY NIGHT. BY LATE THURSDAY...29.4 INCH LOW                  
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO                        
WISCONSIN...WITH INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING               
     FOR LSZ162.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV                 
MOVING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE ARCTIC VORTEX OVER SRN HUDSON              
BAY IS LIFTING TO THE NE. SFC COLD FNT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF COLD             
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTEX HAS STALLED FM NRN WI TO BTWN               
MNM-IMT AND JUST N OF ESC/ISQ. 03Z SFC TEMP IS 52 AT MNM WITH 200               
DEGREE WIND WHILE IMT IS 39 WITH A NNE WIND. BUT TREND IS FOR WINDS             
TO VEER MORE TO THE SSE...SO THIS FNT APPEARS TO BE RETURNING N AS A            
WARM FNT. 00Z GRB/APX/DVN RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY...SO NO PCPN AND JUST             
SOME SCT CLD COVER NOTED OVER THIS BNDRY IN THIS AREA. BUT SOME                 
SHRA/ ISOLD TS NOTED CLOSE TO THE BNDRY FM THE WRN CWA TO DLH WHERE             
RUC/ NAM ANALYSIS INDICATE STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5C/KM WITH              
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO SHARPER H8-7 FGEN IN RRQ OF H3 JET AXIS OVER              
ONTARIO ON SRN FLANK OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX.                                      
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TIMING/IMPACT OF                 
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS.                                              
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO REACH SW MN BY 00Z MON...WITH             
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO NR MPX. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 FNT SHIFTING TO THE            
NW AS SHRTWV TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. THIS SHIFT IN THE                   
POSITION OF THE H85 FNT SUGS THE DEEPER MSTR/WDSPRD PCPN ASSOCIATED             
WITH SHARPER H8-7 FGEN/RRQ OF UPR JET IN ONTARIO WL SHIFT TO THE NW             
AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY. CONSIDERING SHIFT IN FRONTAL                     
POSITION...DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS TO THE S AND SE...AND TENDENCY FOR            
LARGER SCALE FLOW TO TURN MORE SSE...SUSPECT ANY SHRA NOW OVER THE              
WRN ZNS WL DIMINISH BY ARND FCST ISSUANCE IN LINE WITH RUC/NAM FCST.            
TDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN             
ZNS. SSE FLOW OFF LK MI WL HOLD DOWN DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY FOR THE              
MOST PART (EXCEPT OVER THE WRN ZNS WHERE THAT FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE)...             
BUT MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS STILL RESULTS IN TEMPS APRCHG               
55. ALTHOUGH THE H85 FNT LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE NW OF THE FA...THE               
BNDRY MAY GET HUNG UP OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE            
OF LK SUP AND TENDENCY FOR THIS DENSER AIR TO RETARD RETREAT OF NEAR            
SFC COOL POOL. SO MUCH COOLER THERE. ALTHOUGH THE SSE FLOW WOULD BE             
A WARMING WIND FM IWD-ONTONAGON...MORE CLDS/SHRA CHCS WL ARRIVE                 
THERE IN THE AFTN WITH APRCH OF DPVA/UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHRTWV             
AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR.                                                    
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW WI BY 12Z                 
MON...WITH SFC LO REACHING THE WRN CWA. AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR              
PUSHES ACRS THE FA OVERNGT IN THE DPVA/UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE              
ARPCHG SHRTWV...WL GO WITH ARRIVAL OF CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS W-E               
BEFORE DRY SLOTTING AFT 06Z IMPACTS THE WI BORDER ZNS. LOWERED HIEST            
POPS AS THE CONVEYOR BELT WORKS E INTO DRY AIR. PCPN WL BE ENTIRELY             
IN THE FORM OF RA EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IWD AREA LATE WITH ARRIVAL             
OF COLDER LLVL AIR IN CYC NLY FLOW LATE. BUT ANY SN WL BE                       
INSIGNFICANT WITH DRY SLOTTING ALF. MIN TEMPS WL APRCH 32 OVER THE              
FAR W...BUT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABV 32 ELSEWHERE.                       
ON MON...NAM/GFS FCST SHRTWV/SFC LO TO REACH NE LK SUP BY 00Z TUE.              
THE GFS FCST TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER S. PER NCEP PREFERENCE...TRENDED            
AWAY FM THE NAM TOWARD THE GFS. LARGER SCALE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR SHOULD EXIT THE ERN ZNS DURING THE AFTN             
WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING. THE GFS SHOWS PATCH OF HIER MSTR ON               
CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK IMPACTING THE FA...WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE            
RATES UNDER THE MSTR PATCH. WITH LLVL CYC FLOW...WL LINGER CHC POPS             
THRU THE DAY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THAT WL MORE LIKELY ON THE              
ACYC SIDE OF THE VORT TRACK AND EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE                
WAKE OF THE LO. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER PULLING                
LLVL COLD AIR INTO THE FA...SO WL RESTRICT MIX WITH SN OVER THE W               
HALF.                                                                           
ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NRN TIER WL END MON EVNG AS SHRTWV/SFC              
LO PULL TO THE NE AND GIVE WAY TO RISING HGTS/MSLP. BUT ACTIVE WX               
PATTERN WL CONTINUE AS NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF IS DUE TO            
LIFT FM THE SCNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUE AND INTO THE GRT LKS BY EARLY               
WED. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS                  
LOW...SO LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY AGAIN. PER               
NCEP GUIDANCE...TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS TO DETERMINE FCST DETAILS.               
ADJUSTED GOING FCST TO REFLECT HIER POPS OVER THE E WITH TREND                  
TOWARD NEW TRACK...BUT MAINTAINED HIER POPS THAN MIGHT OTRW BE                  
EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AS 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT            
FARTHER W. A FARTHER E TRACK ALSO IMPLIES MORE SN THAN FCST                     
BEFORE. SO NEW FCST INDICATES AT LEAST A MIX WITH SN EVEN OVER THE              
SE ZNS BEGINNING TUE AFTN/EVNG WHEN DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR ARRIVE S-N.            
INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AND STRONG NNE FLOW TO THE W OF THE STORM                 
TRACK LATE TUE NGT MAY BE ENUF TO CHG THE PCPN TO ALL SN EVEN                   
OVER THE SE BEFORE STORM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON WED...WITH            
POPS DIMINISHING SW-NE. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE                    
HEADLINES IF TRENDS WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYS CONTINUE.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS OF 05Z...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAYWARD TO WATERSMEET AND IMT               
AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH. PCPN HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THIS            
FRONT FROM NORTHERN MN INTO THE KEWEENAW. PCPN WILL MOVE COMPLETELY             
OUT OF CMX IN AN HOUR. THE QUESTION THEN IS WHAT FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE            
AT CMX. EASTERLY WINDS UPSLOPING MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...                  
COMBINED WITH THE PCPN THAT FELL...MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN MVFR            
DECK. CURRENT FORECAST PLAN IS TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUD DECK IN THROUGH            
THE MORNING...THEN LIFT IT NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...             
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD GO SOUTHERLY QUICKER...PERHAPS BY            
12Z...THEREFORE LOW CLOUD TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSE AT             
CMX. AT SAW...DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...BOTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE                
WARM FRONT...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS              
LOOK TO GET GUSTY AT SAW DURING THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO A TIGHTENING             
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING            
MIXING DOWN HIGHER WINDS. FOR SUN NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                 
EASTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH UPPER MI. SOME RAIN SHOWERS             
SHOULD FORM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT...BUT THIS PCPN WILL STAY WEST              
OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...THANKS TO THE             
DRY AIRMASS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A SERIES OF 3 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS TO 30 KTS COMMON. FUNNELING              
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LS ZONE SHOULD CREATE LOW                
35KT GALES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE                  
EASTERLY. THE SFC LOW TO OUR SE WILL MOVE TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE TO EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE FILLING TO               
29.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE 30.1 INCH HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON 29.7 INCH LOW                
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL                
SLIDE NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD RESIDE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN             
LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF              
GALES FOR W LS TUESDAY NIGHT. BY LATE THURSDAY...29.4 INCH LOW                  
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO                        
WISCONSIN...WITH INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING               
     FOR LSZ162.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1025 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...LET WARNING EXPIRE ACROSS MN THIS MORNING AS VERY HEAVY               
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. DEFORMATION AXIS STILL GENERATING                  
SOME CONVECTIVE LOOK SNOW SHOWERS/SLEET ACROSS THE RANGE AND                    
ARROWHEAD...SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY WITH AN                      
ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALSO MONITORING FGEN FORCED BAND                  
ACROSS NW WI ATTM. REPORTS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATE HAVE                
BEEN RECEIVED UNDERNEATH THIS BAND. FGEN FORCING DEPARTS THIS                   
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WINDING DOWN CURRENT STORM SYSTEM            
AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE TUE INTO WED. LONG TERM CONCERN IS                   
POSSIBLE SNOW SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.                                          
SHORT TERM...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAIN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS         
NE MN WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM HIB THROUGH GPZ TO              
BRD. THIS BAND IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH                     
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING LOW THROUGH                    
CENTRAL WI INTO THE MI UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC/RADAR TRENDS               
INDICATE THERE WILL STILL BE SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE                            
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 12Z. WILL KEEP THOSE HEADLINES IN                 
EFFECT UNTIL 12Z. THE REST OF THE SNOW WILL STAY UP ACROSS THE                  
ARROWHEAD INTO MIDMORNING. WILL MAKE CHANGES IN HEADLINES AREA                  
LATE THIS MORNING IF NEEDED. ALL OF THE PRECIP PULLS OUT BY LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO MICHIGAN AND DRIER AIR                 
PUSHES INTO AREA. ALSO LOOKED AT THE RUC/BUFKIT...WILL WARNINGS                 
AND ADVISORIES.                                                                 
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                     
A STORM TRACK HAS SET UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD                 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE DEPARTING STORM WILL BE                    
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ONE OVER CHICAGO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS                       
STORM...SHEPHERDED BY A DIGGING TROUGH WITH A NEGATIVE TILT...WILL              
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND                 
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL GREATLY REDUCE                      
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DULUTH. A                  
THIRD DEEP STORM WILL MOVE OVER CHICAGO EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT                     
PRECIPITATION...AGAIN MOSTLY SNOW...WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA                 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AGAIN...THE COLD AND DRY AIR                   
FEEDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MITIGATE PRECIPITATION                     
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DULUTH.                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR CONDS IN SNOW...ACRS NERN MN...AND RAIN...ALONG THE LKSHR AND               
NWRN WI...THIS MRNG WL SLOLY IPV TO MVFR DURG THE AFTN AND VFR FM NW            
TO SE THRUT TNGT.  WE ANCPT VFR UNDER A FL 40 DECK TUE.                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  34  24  39  25 /  70  10  20  40                                           
INL  35  21  42  24 /  70  10  10  10                                           
BRD  35  23  43  28 /  60  10  20  20                                           
HYR  37  23  43  26 /  90  10  40  50                                           
ASX  37  24  41  27 /  70  10  20  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LILES                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
345 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WINDING DOWN CURRENT STORM SYSTEM           
AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE TUE INTO WED. LONG TERM CONCERN IS                   
POSSIBLE SNOW SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.                                          
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAIN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS        
NE MN WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM HIB THROUGH GPZ TO              
BRD. THIS BAND IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH                     
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING LOW THROUGH                    
CENTRAL WI INTO THE MI UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC/RADAR TRENDS               
INDICATE THERE WILL STILL BE SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE                            
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 12Z. WILL KEEP THOSE HEADLINES IN                 
EFFECT UNTIL 12Z. THE REST OF THE SNOW WILL STAY UP ACROSS THE                  
ARROWHEAD INTO MIDMORNING. WILL MAKE CHANGES IN HEADLINES AREA                  
LATE THIS MORNING IF NEEDED. ALL OF THE PRECIP PULLS OUT BY LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO MICHIGAN AND DRIER AIR                 
PUSHES INTO AREA. ALSO LOOKED AT THE RUC/BUFKIT...WILL WARNINGS                 
AND ADVISORIES.                                                                 
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                    
A STORM TRACK HAS SET UP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD                 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE DEPARTING STORM WILL BE                    
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ONE OVER CHICAGO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS                       
STORM...SHEPHERDED BY A DIGGING TROUGH WITH A NEGATIVE TILT...WILL              
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND                 
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL GREATLY REDUCE                      
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DULUTH. A                  
THIRD DEEP STORM WILL MOVE OVER CHICAGO EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT                     
PRECIPITATION...AGAIN MOSTLY SNOW...WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA                 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AGAIN...THE COLD AND DRY AIR                   
FEEDING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MITIGATE PRECIPITATION                     
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DULUTH.                                  
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDS IN SNOW...ACRS NERN MN...AND RAIN...ALONG THE LKSHR AND               
NWRN WI...THIS MRNG WL SLOLY IPV TO MVFR DURG THE AFTN AND VFR FM NW            
TO SE THRUT TNGT.  WE ANCPT VFR UNDER A FL 40 DECK TUE.                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  36  24  39  25 /  50  10  20  40                                           
INL  37  21  42  24 /  60  10  10  30                                           
BRD  38  23  43  28 /  70  10  20  20                                           
HYR  38  23  43  26 /  40  10  40  50                                           
ASX  38  24  41  27 /  50  10  20  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR                       
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-SOUTHERN CASS.                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL              
     ST. LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-                       
     NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST.                   
     LOUIS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                     
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR PINE-              
     SOUTHERN AITKIN.                                                           
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DOUGLAS.              
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-               
     LSZ140-LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-                   
     LSZ148.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
STEWART/04                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
350 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HUNG IN ALL DAY                 
SATURDAY AND HELD TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. AM STILL                   
DEALING WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH HAVE BROKEN UP                 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE               
FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHERE THE BREAKS HAVE                
OCCURRED. PATCHY DENSE FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE               
THIS MORNING UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE. OUR AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY            
WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH AND A LITTLE MIXING IS EXPECTED TO                   
DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. ELSE...WARMER AND                
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC              
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TEXAS THAT WILL MOVE OVER             
OUR CWFA TODAY BUT HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON DISCERNIBLE WEATHER.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE               
AXIS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES THAT WILL WEAKEN AND                
BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN              
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY             
SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL               
AND TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT                 
WINDS AND OUR DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
TONIGHT. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S. OUR              
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. A                
QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL               
TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE A             
LITTLE WARM IN THE DELTA TODAY BUT CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/                                                        
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO               
THE EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...               
NUDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOOK FOR QUIET YET WARM             
WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.  CHANGES THOUGH WILL BEGIN OVER             
THE AREA STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST              
PART OF THE WEEKEND.                                                            
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES HOLD ON OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY FORCING            
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...            
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES             
THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING IT STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF              
THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.  THE BEST POPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE              
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION DUE TO IT`S PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT                
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.                                               
THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON                 
WEDNESDAY BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE FRONT QUICKLY                  
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM            
BEGINS TO GET IT`S ACT TOGETHER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.           
A MUCH STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE                
NATION`S MIDSECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG               
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA                    
PANHANDLES AND BEGIN PUSHING OUR WAY THURSDAY NIGHT.  IT`S DURING               
THIS TIME THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REALLY INCREASES BRINGING A             
SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A GOOD 12            
HOURS.  BUT BOTH ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY               
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.  WITH THAT SAID...WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE             
AND INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...COUPLED WITH THE AMPLE WIND SHEAR               
STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...IT STILL APPEARS WE COULD SEE            
THE THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER ENTER INTO THE PICTURE              
LATE NEXT WEEK.  AS USUAL WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...            
LATER MODEL RUNS AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO                    
MONITORED TO SEE EXACTLY HOW THIS ALL WILL PAN OUT.                             
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT              
SATURDAY EVENING.  THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR             
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR TO WORK IT`S             
WAY INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT SUNDAY. /19/                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A BROKEN LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000FT WAS               
STILL OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS AT SOME            
SITES. UNDER THE BREAKS IN THE LAYER OF STRATUS...PATCHY DENSE FOG              
HAS DEVELOPED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES BEING REPORTED. THE LAYER OF               
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHRINK OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING            
WITH MORE OF THE AREA SEEING DENSE FOG DEVELOP. THE FOG IS EXPECTED             
TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO            
PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM            
15Z UNTIL 09Z MONDAY WHEN VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN             
3 TO 5 STATUTE MILES AGAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z MONDAY. /22/                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       77  48  82  58 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      78  47  82  55 /   0   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   79  51  83  58 /   0   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       76  49  81  57 /   0   0   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    75  47  79  58 /   0   0   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     76  48  81  57 /   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: 19                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
134 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE                 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE AND WET WEEK AHEAD.                         
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT              
WITH LITTLE FAN FAIR AND STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.             
GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO            
COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO             
BUILD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND AS THE LONGWAVE               
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EDGES EAST AND DEEPENS...LOW                    
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                        
MONDAY NIGHT...                                                                 
STRONG AND QUITE BROAD LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE             
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AREA OF 900-800MB                 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SLOWLY PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA                  
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. ELEVATED             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FORCING AND CURRENT               
POPS ARE ALREADY CATEGORICAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                              
TUESDAY...                                                                      
BY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO BE ALIGNED FROM                     
CHANUTE...KANSAS THROUGH THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE            
ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA.  SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A                
SLIGHT RISK AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE                     
NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI TO WEST               
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL             
BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT IS REALIZED IN THE              
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA.                                                 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...                                                  
FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH                
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS               
EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES.                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                               
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD AS ECWMF/GEM ARE MORE                   
AMPLIFIED WITH NEXT TROF AND SURFACE WAVE WITH A TRACK THAT IS MORE             
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A                
LESS AMPLIFIED SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY                
FRONT THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...WHICH IS               
MORE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. OBVIOUSLY                  
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON FRONTAL               
POSITION. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE...AND FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH            
SIDES CLOSELY WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED ECWMF SOLUTION.                             
EXTENDED...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY                                                  
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES. SOME INDICATION            
BY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE THAT            
DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST...PROVIDING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN             
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AND               
LET LATER SHIFTS ADD POPS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO AGREEMENT ON TIMING            
AND LOCATION OF THIS DISTRUBANCE.                                               
CVKING                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION                    
OVERNIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER IN MKC AREA THIS AM)               
CONTINUES TO MOV NE. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN HAS                      
NOTICEABLY SLOWED. RUC SHOWS SOME TEMP AND MOISTURE ADVETION IN                 
THE AREA OF THE RAIN THEM MOVING IT MORE NE INTO IA. LOOKS LIKE                 
THAT TREND WILL PREVAIL. HAVE PUT A TEMPO IN UIN FOR 6SM RW-...AND              
THAT WILL BE IT IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THIS BATCH OF TAFS. VFR TO               
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.                 
JPK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
132 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHO THERE IS STILL DISCREPENCY IN THE DETAILS...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS            
CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE GENL IDEA THAT UNSETTLED WX IS IN             
THE OFFING FOR OUR FA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.                                    
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS WILL HOLD FOR ANOTHER               
36 HRS OR SO. 00Z WRF/NAM AND GFS STILL APR TO BE ON TRACK WITH WK              
CDFNT PASSING THRU AREA TNGT...ALBEIT JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN ERYR               
EXPECTED. WAA AHD OF CDFNT HAS BEEN GENERATING A FEW LGT SHWRS                  
OVRNGT FROM NE KS INTO NW MO AND SW IA. DOUBT IF THIS PCPN AREA                 
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENUF TO REACH OUR CWA...BUT CONTD WAA AND WK                
SHTWV ENERGY WITH LIMITED MSTR SHUD BE JUST ENUF TO CONT LO CHC                 
POPS ALG AND AHD OF THE FNT...BGNG IN XTRM NW AREAS LT THIS AFTN                
AND PUSHING E ACR AREA TNGT. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW RUNS WHERE THE                 
WRF/NAM WAS BEEFY WITH THE QPF THIS AFTN AND TNGT...00Z WRF/NAM                 
RUNHAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND NOW MIRRORS VRY LIGHT QPF                    
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF.                                                     
CDFNT WL EXIT AREA BY 12Z MON AND BCM QSNTRY FROM OK INTO AR AS NRW             
SFC RDG WORKS FROM DKTAS TO MID MSVLY.  STG WAA IS FCST TO DVLP IN              
ADV OF LEAD SHTWV OVR W PLAINS BY MON MRNG...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT               
SPREADING E ACR PLAINS AND INTO W MO BY 00Z TUE AS RETURN FLOW                  
INTENSIFIES AHD OF DVLPG SYS.  SUSTAINED S FLO OVR S PLAINS AND LWR             
MSVLY FROM TDA INTO MON AFTN WL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE MSTR INCR IN             
THE AMS TO OUR S...SO THINK THAT ONCE THE WAA KICKS IN ELEVATED                 
SHWRS AND TSRA WL RPDLY DVLP AND SPRD E.  MSTR AND LIFT ARE SO                  
FAVORABLE THAT POPS HV BEEN INCRD ACR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND SPCLY              
FROM CNTRL MO INTO NE IL WHERE NOSE OF LLJ WL BE FOCUSING MUCH OF               
THE LIFT BY 12Z TUE.                                                            
SFC LO IS FCST TO LIFT ACR AREA DURG THE DAY TUE...BUT MODELS DO                
DIFFER ON ITS EXACT TRACK.  APPROX OF GUIDANCE MEAN FROM GFS...GFS              
ENSEMBLE...WRF/NAM... AND CANADIAN SUGGEST LOW WL MOVE FROM SW                  
CORNER OF MO INTO UIN/PIA AREAS DURG THE DAY...ALTHO ECMWF IS                   
STICKING WITH ITS ERYR TRACK OF TAKING LO INTO E IA BY 00Z                      
WED...WHICH IS TREND ALSO SUPPORTED BY UKMET. EXACT TRACK OF THE LO             
WL HV A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AS WELL AS LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF              
ATTENDANT SVR WX.  INITIALLY DURG THE PREDAWN HRS HAIL SHUD BE THE              
PRIMARY THRT WITH ELEVATED STORMS...WITH CNVTN GRADUALLY BCMG SFC OR            
NR SFC BASED DURG THE DAY AS THE WRM SECTOR SURGES N.  WHILE THE                
SPECIFICS ARE NRLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN ATTM...LO LVL HELICITY AND            
BULK SHEAR CERTAINLY SUGGEST ITS GOING TO BE A BUSY DAY.                        
PASSAGE OF CDFNT IN WAKE OF LO WL END TSRA FROM NW TO SE ACR AREA               
TUE NGT...WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED ON WED BFR ROUND TWO DVLPS WED             
NGT AND THU...MIMICKING THE OVRALL TREND THAT IS EXPECTED MON                   
NGT-TUE.  DISCREPENCIES IN MODEL SOLNS BCM A BIT LARGER BY THIS                 
TIME...BUT OVRALL THEY SUPPORT GOING FCST TRENDS SO NO MAJOR CHGS               
MADE TO THE WED-THU TIME FRAME.                                                 
WL BE ISSUING AN ESF FOR THE UPCOMING WET WEATHER.  IF QPF IS TAKEN             
VERBATIM THE MOST PROBLEMATIC TIME PD WOULD BE WITH ROUND TWO WED               
NGT-THU...WHICH FOCUSES THE HVIEST RAIN OVR WATERLOGGED S SECTIONS              
OF THE FA.  HWVR...AMPLE MOISTURE COULD MEAN HVY RAINS AND                      
ULTIMATELY SM WATER PROBLEMS IN N SECTIONS IN THE MON NGT-TUE TIME              
FRAME...WHILE IN THE WATERLOGGED S COUNTIES ANY RAIN IS ALMOST TOO              
MUCH AT THIS POINT.                                                             
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION                    
OVERNIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER IN MKC AREA THIS AM)               
CONTINUES TO MOV NE. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN HAS                      
NOTICEABLY SLOWED. RUC SHOWS SOME TEMP AND MOISTURE ADVETION IN                 
THE AREA OF THE RAIN THEM MOVING IT MORE NE INTO IA. LOOKS LIKE                 
THAT TREND WILL PREVAIL. HAVE PUT A TEMPO IN UIN FOR 6SM RW-...AND              
THAT WILL BE IT IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THIS BATCH OF TAFS. VFR TO               
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.                 
JPK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
835 PM MDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...                                          
UPDATE FOR ZONES AND AFP THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH OF LOW                      
PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP               
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED POPS OVER               
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION                   
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONES.                         
PRECIPITATION IS WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL BE ENDING LATE THIS                  
EVENING. 18Z MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS                 
SW MT THIS EVENING. THE RUC/WRF 00Z RUNS HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT ON TO              
THIS WAVE AND PUSH IT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY LATE EVENING.                   
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER THE WESTERN                
ZONES. LIVINGSTON HAS BEEN SNOWING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH                     
VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE AT TIMES. SNOW THERE WILL DECREASE                    
SHORTLY BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 06Z WITH OTHER SHORT WAVE                  
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE ROTATING THROUGH. WARM GROUND                     
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING DOWN AND HAVE AN INCH OR LESS               
FOR LIVINGSTON. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SNOW FOR BILLINGS OVERNIGHT                 
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 10Z. REMAINDER                 
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. RICHMOND                   
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED                
FORECAST. THEREFORE HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE                  
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON                        
THURSDAY. LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED               
TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT LOOKS MARGINAL AT                
THIS TIME SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. LATER ON FRIDAY A                
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL DRY               
THINGS OUT AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND.                                           
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE                
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS WILL                     
REMAIN DRY. THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS               
HOLDING ON TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ECMWF CREATING MORE                 
FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS AGREE               
THAT IT WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH 850 MB                 
TEMPS AROUND 12 TO 15C.                                                         
STOPPKOTTE                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF                 
BILLINGS THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WHICH                
INCLUDES LVM AND 3HT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS BIL-              
SHR BETWEEN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED -SHRASN BETWEEN BIL AND                 
MLS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z. SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON               
TAP AGAIN FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MVFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TOMORROW...AND                 
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. JKL                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 032/053 033/052 031/052 031/057 036/062 036/062 037/058                     
    33/O    23/W    42/W    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B                        
LVM 027/047 027/048 028/049 026/053 028/060 033/058 031/056                     
    62/S    24/W    33/W    21/B    11/N    11/B    12/W                        
HDN 032/055 033/057 031/054 031/058 034/065 032/064 037/062                     
    33/O    23/W    43/W    21/B    11/B    10/B    11/B                        
MLS 030/055 031/056 030/053 029/056 034/063 033/063 037/060                     
    22/O    23/W    53/W    21/B    11/B    10/B    11/B                        
4BQ 030/052 030/055 029/051 029/055 034/063 033/064 035/056                     
    23/O    24/W    43/W    31/B    11/B    11/B    11/B                        
BHK 024/054 026/052 026/046 027/052 033/060 033/062 032/059                     
    22/O    23/W    53/W    21/B    11/B    10/B    11/B                        
SHR 030/049 028/050 026/048 024/052 028/060 027/061 031/058                     
    43/O    24/W    43/W    31/B    11/B    11/B    11/U                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TIME                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
320 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERN ONGOING HEADLINES...SNOW AMOUNTS/COVERAGE            
AND TEMPERATURES.                                                               
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR                  
FORECAST.                                                                       
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN SD TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SD DURING            
DAY. COMBINATION OF WAVE PASSAGE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER             
JET PROVIDING ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE              
ACROSS SE FA. BATTLE BETWEEN DRY NE FLOW AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT             
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN NO AND HEAVY SNOWFALL                
TODAY. CURRENTLY MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LISBON TO                
FAR...FSE AND INL WHERE LOW TEEN DEWPOINTS TRANSITION TO NEAR 30                
DEWPOINTS OVER A FEW MILES. SO EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL SE OF THIS                 
BOUNDARY WITH NARROW ZONE AS A BUFFER BETWEEN MODEST AND HEAVIER                
AMOUNTS. RUC LOOKS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND LIFTS                
BOUNDARY ONLY SLIGHTLY N/NW DURING DAY. AS A RESULT AM NOT EXPECTING            
HEAVY SNOW BAND TO SHIFT MUCH DURING DAY. SHOWALTER INDICES INCREASE            
OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST SO THUNDER SNOW SHOULD                  
DIMINISH HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES FROM .50 TO .75 PLENTY            
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HATS OFF TO EVENING SHIFT WHICH DID AN                   
EXCELLENT JOB IN LAYING OUT WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS AND ONLY CHANGES             
WILL BE MINOR TIMING OF HEADLINE START TIMES OVER FAR SE FA TO                  
COINCIDE WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE AND TO UP SNOW AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS            
OF WARNING AREA AS ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF 6 INCHES NEAR PKD.                
BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS WILL ALSO CANCEL NW                  
PORTION ADVISORY AREA WHICH NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WILL BE               
TRIMMING POPS ACROSS NW HALF OF FA AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE WRAPS             
AROUND SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE SD. WILL EVEN LIKELY SEE SOLAR             
OVER FAR NW TODAY SO WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA.                       
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TONIGHT FOR GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL HOWEVER            
FAR SE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GUN INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE                  
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND SHIFTS SE. WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING INTO            
EVENING AND LET LATER SHIFTS TWEAK AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW              
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OVER SOME AREAS.                              
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO REMAINDER OF FA MONDAY AND WITH DRY                    
COLUMN/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO                
RECOVER. WILL KEEP COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER ANTICIPATED                        
SNOWFIELD.                                                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR DRY                
PERIOD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE IN            
WORK WEEK HOWEVER RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH MAY LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL.             
FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS IN LATER PERIODS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE            
NOT HIGH. ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LATER PERIODS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL BE SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN IFR CIGS/VSBY IN S. LOWEST CIGS WILL               
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LISBON TO FAR TO BJI TRANSITIONING             
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO VFR OVER REMINDER OF FA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO                 
CONTINUE MOST OF DAY WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATER IN AFTERNOON.           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-            
     049-052.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ053.              
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-            
     003-009-015-016.                                                           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ040.           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ017-              
     022>024-027-028.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                      
MNZ029>032.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1111 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MODIFIED 1ST/2ND PERIOD DEWPOINTS/WINDS/TEMPS BASED ON INGESTED                 
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RUC FORECASTS. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON                 
EVOLUTION OF DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT STRUCTURES AND RESULTING                   
LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/CONVERGENCE. IF WE CAN GET STORMS GOING IN              
THE WARM SECTOR... LOWER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FORECAST ARE SOME OF                  
THE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS YOUNG SPRING SEASON.                 
HOWEVER...QUALITY/TIMING OF MOISTURE REGIME IN QUESTION.                        
HAZARDOUS WEATHER GRAPHICS/OUTLOOKS UPDATED TO RAISE CONCERNS AND               
AWARENESS. GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WILL BE SOUTHWEST/WEST-                  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD                 
AND AFTER 5 PM.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH THIS MORNING INTO               
OKLAHOMA AS A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER MOVES INTO NORTHERN                 
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN BY                
THE TIME ALSO. THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHWEST                   
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN              
AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM FIRST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT               
THE INTERSECTION OF THE TWO FRONTS WILL BE A FURTHER FOCUS FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD              
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, HAVING GIVEN A                  
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR AND             
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.                                              
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. THE PREVIOUS FRONT WILL                
HAVE BROUGHT ONLY A SHALLOW AIRMASS, SO WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE                
FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MORE GENERAL                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGER LONG               
WAVE TROUGH MAY SEND SEVERAL WEAKER UPPER FEATURES ACROSS THIS                  
AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE                     
TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA MAY LEAD TO                  
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST LATER THURSDAY,               
DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE                   
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  55  61  41 /  20  60  30  10                              
HOBART OK         80  53  64  39 /  20  30  20  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  60  73  46 /  20  30  30  30                              
GAGE OK           63  38  59  31 /  20  50  10  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     59  50  60  39 /  20  80  40   0                              
DURANT OK         82  62  71  52 /  10  30  60  50                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/30                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1256 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON               
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. ALSO ADDED STANLEY AND HUGHES                    
COUNTIES INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE                
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING THE CHANGE OF                
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.                                         
CURRENTLY...A VIGOROUS EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING              
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THIS                
LOW IS QUITE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN                  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS                    
SPREADING SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA /IN                           
PARTICULAR...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN                    
DETECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING OVER                     
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF 30 TO 40 DBZ                   
ECHOES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW               
REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATING SLICK                
ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THUS FAR...FROM A COMBINATION              
OF SNOW AND SLEET. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...SURFACE TO                    
925HPA CAA IS UNDERCUTTING THE STRONG SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM              
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...CREATING /BASED OFF REAL-TIME RUC-                     
CASTING/ AN AREA SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SURFACE TO              
925HPA TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND FALLING                 
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR               
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE 850HPA TEMPS ARE STILL                    
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE FREEZING ON TOP OF THIS                    
COLDER LAYER LOWER DOWN. THIS POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN               
AND SLEET...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE              
HEAVY WET TROWAL-FORCED SNOW BAND CHASING IT FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BY NOON CDT...THE THREAT FOR                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY MUCH RELEGATED TO                              
MINNESOTA...WITH JUST A HEAVY WET BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO                     
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PERSISTING THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING              
HOURS. WITH WORD COMING THIS MORNING FROM MY WESTERN FORECAST                   
NEIGHBOR THAT THEY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES                
OF SNOWFALL IN THEIR AREA IN A SPAN OF LESS THEN 6                              
HOURS...THINKING THAT OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF              
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE                    
ENOUGH TO COVER THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA               
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PILING UP.                                                   
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE AT              
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CLEARING AND               
DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT                
TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE               
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY            
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO...CONTINUED TO SHAVE MORE OFF OF                
THE POPS/WX FORECAST FOR SAID TIME FRAME. MODEL THERMAL PROGS STILL             
LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED FOR NAILING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE                
WITH THIS RATHER WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM...SO CONTINUED A FORECAST              
OF RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING MAX/MIN T FORECAST IN THE                   
SHORT TERM. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT SHAKES OUT OF THE ONGOING SNOW                
EVENT IN ORDER TO BETTER DEFINE MAX/MIN T FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED STILL DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                 
MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                        
MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE MID WEEK SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER                         
SOUTH...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS 00Z WED THROUGH 12Z WED. THETA SURFACES INDICATE                        
DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE...SO SAW NO REASON TO LEAVE IN MENTION OF                
PCPN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHC                 
POPS.                                                                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY SYSTEM. BOTH              
GFS AND EC ARE NOW LIFTING THE SFC LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS                
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z EC IS NOW PUSHING THE SFC LOW A BIT               
FURTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN...BUT IT                   
STILL APPEARS THAT PCPN AT LEAST DESERVES A CHC MENTION THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z GFS SHOWS WELL DEFINED 7H TROWAL ACROSS                  
NERN SD BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH 290K SPEC HUMIDITIES NEARING 3G/KG BY              
12Z FRIDAY. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PLACEMENT               
OF THE OVERALL FEATURES...AM COMFORTABLE WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL                
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN.                                               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW NOSING DOWN INTO CWA FOR WEDNESDAY                       
PERIOD...HAVE NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY FCST HIGHS A DEGREE OR                        
THREE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE WHERE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED HIGHS. REMAINDER OF TEMP GRIDS PRETTY MUCH LEFT WHAT WAS              
INHERITED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES                
BETWEEN 100 AND 800 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION                   
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA NEAR KPIR...WHERE HIGH IFR TO                 
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 800 AND 1800 FEET. SNOW WILL                     
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE                       
CWA...REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES BETWEEN 1/4 MILE              
AND 2 MILES...MAINLY AFFECTING KMBG AND KABR. THE AREA OF SNOW WILL             
SLIDE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KATY               
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 20Z.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-           
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CLARK-          
     DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-SPINK.                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING             
     FOR HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-STANLEY-SULLY.                                        
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-           
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1144 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BROAD AREA OF               
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF                
THE CWA. ALSO SEEING A LINE OF SHOWERS/FREEZING RAIN TRACKING                   
NORTHWARD EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING SET               
TO EXPIRE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO               
MONITOR THAT AREA AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING. NO CHANGES                
MADE TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING THE CHANGE OF                
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.                                         
CURRENTLY...A VIGOROUS EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING              
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THIS                
LOW IS QUITE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN                  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS                    
SPREADING SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA /IN                           
PARTICULAR...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN                    
DETECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING OVER                     
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF 30 TO 40 DBZ                   
ECHOES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW               
REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATING SLICK                
ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THUS FAR...FROM A COMBINATION              
OF SNOW AND SLEET. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...SURFACE TO                    
925HPA CAA IS UNDERCUTTING THE STRONG SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM              
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...CREATING /BASED OFF REAL-TIME RUC-                     
CASTING/ AN AREA SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SURFACE TO              
925HPA TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND FALLING                 
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR               
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE 850HPA TEMPS ARE STILL                    
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE FREEZING ON TOP OF THIS                    
COLDER LAYER LOWER DOWN. THIS POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN               
AND SLEET...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE              
HEAVY WET TROWAL-FORCED SNOW BAND CHASING IT FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BY NOON CDT...THE THREAT FOR                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY MUCH RELEGATED TO                              
MINNESOTA...WITH JUST A HEAVY WET BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO                     
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PERSISTING THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING              
HOURS. WITH WORD COMING THIS MORNING FROM MY WESTERN FORECAST                   
NEIGHBOR THAT THEY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES                
OF SNOWFALL IN THEIR AREA IN A SPAN OF LESS THEN 6                              
HOURS...THINKING THAT OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF              
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE                    
ENOUGH TO COVER THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA               
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PILING UP.                                                   
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE AT              
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CLEARING AND               
DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT                
TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE               
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY            
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO...CONTINUED TO SHAVE MORE OFF OF                
THE POPS/WX FORECAST FOR SAID TIME FRAME. MODEL THERMAL PROGS STILL             
LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED FOR NAILING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE                
WITH THIS RATHER WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM...SO CONTINUED A FORECAST              
OF RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING MAX/MIN T FORECAST IN THE                   
SHORT TERM. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT SHAKES OUT OF THE ONGOING SNOW                
EVENT IN ORDER TO BETTER DEFINE MAX/MIN T FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED STILL DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                 
MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                        
MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE MID WEEK SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER                         
SOUTH...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS 00Z WED THROUGH 12Z WED. THETA SURFACES INDICATE                        
DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE...SO SAW NO REASON TO LEAVE IN MENTION OF                
PCPN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHC                 
POPS.                                                                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY SYSTEM. BOTH              
GFS AND EC ARE NOW LIFTING THE SFC LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS                
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z EC IS NOW PUSHING THE SFC LOW A BIT               
FURTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN...BUT IT                   
STILL APPEARS THAT PCPN AT LEAST DESERVES A CHC MENTION THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z GFS SHOWS WELL DEFINED 7H TROWAL ACROSS                  
NERN SD BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH 290K SPEC HUMIDITIES NEARING 3G/KG BY              
12Z FRIDAY. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PLACEMENT               
OF THE OVERALL FEATURES...AM COMFORTABLE WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL                
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN.                                               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW NOSING DOWN INTO CWA FOR WEDNESDAY                       
PERIOD...HAVE NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY FCST HIGHS A DEGREE OR                        
THREE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE WHERE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED HIGHS. REMAINDER OF TEMP GRIDS PRETTY MUCH LEFT WHAT WAS              
INHERITED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES                
BETWEEN 100 AND 800 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION                   
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA NEAR KPIR...WHERE HIGH IFR TO                 
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 800 AND 1800 FEET. SNOW WILL                     
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE                       
CWA...REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES BETWEEN 1/4 MILE              
AND 2 MILES...MAINLY AFFECTING KMBG AND KABR. THE AREA OF SNOW WILL             
SLIDE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KATY               
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 20Z.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-           
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CLARK-          
     DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-SPINK.                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HAND-              
     HYDE-SULLY.                                                                
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-           
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
934 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER SNOW               
AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. EXPECT NORTH CENTRAL AND                    
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO SEE UPWARDS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW               
TODAY. UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING THE CHANGE OF                
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.                                         
CURRENTLY...A VIGOROUS EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING              
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THIS                
LOW IS QUITE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN                  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS                    
SPREADING SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA /IN                           
PARTICULAR...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN                    
DETECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING OVER                     
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF 30 TO 40 DBZ                   
ECHOES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW               
REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATING SLICK                
ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THUS FAR...FROM A COMBINATION              
OF SNOW AND SLEET. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...SURFACE TO                    
925HPA CAA IS UNDERCUTTING THE STRONG SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM              
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...CREATING /BASED OFF REAL-TIME RUC-                     
CASTING/ AN AREA SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SURFACE TO              
925HPA TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND FALLING                 
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR               
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE 850HPA TEMPS ARE STILL                    
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE FREEZING ON TOP OF THIS                    
COLDER LAYER LOWER DOWN. THIS POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN               
AND SLEET...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE              
HEAVY WET TROWAL-FORCED SNOW BAND CHASING IT FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BY NOON CDT...THE THREAT FOR                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY MUCH RELEGATED TO                              
MINNESOTA...WITH JUST A HEAVY WET BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO                     
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PERSISTING THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING              
HOURS. WITH WORD COMING THIS MORNING FROM MY WESTERN FORECAST                   
NEIGHBOR THAT THEY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES                
OF SNOWFALL IN THEIR AREA IN A SPAN OF LESS THEN 6                              
HOURS...THINKING THAT OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF              
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE                    
ENOUGH TO COVER THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA               
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PILING UP.                                                   
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE AT              
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CLEARING AND               
DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT                
TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE               
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY            
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO...CONTINUED TO SHAVE MORE OFF OF                
THE POPS/WX FORECAST FOR SAID TIME FRAME. MODEL THERMAL PROGS STILL             
LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED FOR NAILING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE                
WITH THIS RATHER WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM...SO CONTINUED A FORECAST              
OF RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING MAX/MIN T FORECAST IN THE                   
SHORT TERM. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT SHAKES OUT OF THE ONGOING SNOW                
EVENT IN ORDER TO BETTER DEFINE MAX/MIN T FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED STILL DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                 
MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                        
MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE MID WEEK SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER                         
SOUTH...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS 00Z WED THROUGH 12Z WED. THETA SURFACES INDICATE                        
DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE...SO SAW NO REASON TO LEAVE IN MENTION OF                
PCPN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHC                 
POPS.                                                                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY SYSTEM. BOTH              
GFS AND EC ARE NOW LIFTING THE SFC LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS                
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z EC IS NOW PUSHING THE SFC LOW A BIT               
FURTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN...BUT IT                   
STILL APPEARS THAT PCPN AT LEAST DESERVES A CHC MENTION THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z GFS SHOWS WELL DEFINED 7H TROWAL ACROSS                  
NERN SD BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH 290K SPEC HUMIDITIES NEARING 3G/KG BY              
12Z FRIDAY. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PLACEMENT               
OF THE OVERALL FEATURES...AM COMFORTABLE WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL                
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN.                                               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW NOSING DOWN INTO CWA FOR WEDNESDAY                       
PERIOD...HAVE NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY FCST HIGHS A DEGREE OR                        
THREE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE WHERE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED HIGHS. REMAINDER OF TEMP GRIDS PRETTY MUCH LEFT WHAT WAS              
INHERITED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FOR KABR/KATY/KPIR                      
TERMINALS. SFC LOW NOW SLIDING EAST ALONG HWY 14 CORRIDOR WILL                  
BRING AMPLE SHRA/SN TO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST ALONG I-29...SCT                  
SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z. BY 15Z PCPN WILL                
HAVE TURNED OVER TO SNOW FOR KMBG...WITH SNOW EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR               
KABR. VSBYS COULD FALL TO LESS THAN 1SM IN THE SNOW. CIGS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 008-012 FEET AGL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-           
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CLARK-          
     DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-SPINK.                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HAND-              
     HYDE-SULLY.                                                                
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-           
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
505 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING THE CHANGE OF                
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.                                         
CURRENTLY...A VIGOROUS EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING              
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THIS                
LOW IS QUITE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN                  
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS                    
SPREADING SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA /IN                           
PARTICULAR...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN                    
DETECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING OVER                     
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF 30 TO 40 DBZ                   
ECHOES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW               
REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATING SLICK                
ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THUS FAR...FROM A COMBINATION              
OF SNOW AND SLEET. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...SURFACE TO                    
925HPA CAA IS UNDERCUTTING THE STRONG SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM              
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...CREATING /BASED OFF REAL-TIME RUC-                     
CASTING/ AN AREA SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SURFACE TO              
925HPA TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND FALLING                 
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR               
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE 850HPA TEMPS ARE STILL                    
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 DEGREES C ABOVE FREEZING ON TOP OF THIS                    
COLDER LAYER LOWER DOWN. THIS POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN               
AND SLEET...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE              
HEAVY WET TROWAL-FORCED SNOW BAND CHASING IT FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BY NOON CDT...THE THREAT FOR                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY MUCH RELEGATED TO                              
MINNESOTA...WITH JUST A HEAVY WET BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO                     
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PERSISTING THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING              
HOURS. WITH WORD COMING THIS MORNING FROM MY WESTERN FORECAST                   
NEIGHBOR THAT THEY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES                
OF SNOWFALL IN THEIR AREA IN A SPAN OF LESS THEN 6                              
HOURS...THINKING THAT OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF              
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAY NOT BE                    
ENOUGH TO COVER THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA               
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PILING UP.                                                   
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE AT              
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CLEARING AND               
DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT                
TERM FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE               
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY            
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO...CONTINUED TO SHAVE MORE OFF OF                
THE POPS/WX FORECAST FOR SAID TIME FRAME. MODEL THERMAL PROGS STILL             
LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED FOR NAILING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE                
WITH THIS RATHER WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM...SO CONTINUED A FORECAST              
OF RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING MAX/MIN T FORECAST IN THE                   
SHORT TERM. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT SHAKES OUT OF THE ONGOING SNOW                
EVENT IN ORDER TO BETTER DEFINE MAX/MIN T FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...00Z WED THROUGH SATURDAY.                                          
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED STILL DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES                 
MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                        
MODELS ARE NOW TAKING THE MID WEEK SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER                         
SOUTH...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS 00Z WED THROUGH 12Z WED. THETA SURFACES INDICATE                        
DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE...SO SAW NO REASON TO LEAVE IN MENTION OF                
PCPN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO LESS THAN SLIGHT CHC                 
POPS.                                                                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY SYSTEM. BOTH              
GFS AND EC ARE NOW LIFTING THE SFC LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS                
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE LATEST 00Z EC IS NOW PUSHING THE SFC LOW A BIT               
FURTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN...BUT IT                   
STILL APPEARS THAT PCPN AT LEAST DESERVES A CHC MENTION THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z GFS SHOWS WELL DEFINED 7H TROWAL ACROSS                  
NERN SD BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH 290K SPEC HUMIDITIES NEARING 3G/KG BY              
12Z FRIDAY. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PLACEMENT               
OF THE OVERALL FEATURES...AM COMFORTABLE WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL                
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN.                                               
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW NOSING DOWN INTO CWA FOR WEDNESDAY                       
PERIOD...HAVE NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY FCST HIGHS A DEGREE OR                        
THREE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE WHERE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT              
INCREASED HIGHS. REMAINDER OF TEMP GRIDS PRETTY MUCH LEFT WHAT WAS              
INHERITED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FOR KABR/KATY/KPIR                      
TERMINALS. SFC LOW NOW SLIDING EAST ALONG HWY 14 CORRIDOR WILL                  
BRING AMPLE SHRA/SN TO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST ALONG I-29...SCT                  
SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z. BY 15Z PCPN WILL                
HAVE TURNED OVER TO SNOW FOR KMBG...WITH SNOW EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR               
KABR. VSBYS COULD FALL TO LESS THAN 1SM IN THE SNOW. CIGS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 008-012 FEET AGL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR               
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.                                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT               
     THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.                           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-             
     CLARK-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-SPINK-                
     SULLY.                                                                     
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT               
     THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1130 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION UPDATE...                                                             
STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. WE EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS TO FORM IN THE              
AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CROSS OVER THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONG STORMS LIKELY            
WILL STILL NORTH OF THE RIVER. STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT...               
PROBABLY IN MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION THAN THIS MORNING.  #26                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1045 AM CDT                                                                     
SUNDAY EVENING POSTFRONTAL WINDS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BACKED RAPIDLY            
OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP THE MORNING DRYLINE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO                  
BORDER. WITH SW/SSW WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THERE WILL BE              
LITTLE MECHANICAL FORCING TO THE EAST. SOME MIXING PROPAGATION WILL             
OCCUR IN THE SUNNY AREAS TO THE WEST OF FWD CWA...BUT DRYLINE BULGE             
WILL LIKELY BE INTO SW OKLAHOMA. AS EXPECTED...NEW 12Z MODELS HAVE              
DIMINISHED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. RUC/NAM STILL               
GENERATING MUCAPES (1000-900MB) IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG TO THE EAST OF            
THE BOUNDARY. WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENCE...BOUNDARY MOVEMENT ALONE             
MAY BE INSUFFICIENT TO REALIZE THIS EXTRAORDINARY INSTABILITY. ANY              
NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE WEST OF             
FWD CWA...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NE. AS A RESULT...FAR NW ZONES               
MAY GET GRAZED...WITH NO OTHER IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN            
POP GRIDS AS IS...WITH SEVERE MENTION IN FAR NW...BUT ONLY 10 POPS              
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF RECENTLY EXPANDED SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA.             
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR                
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED IMAGES/PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 25                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
715 AM CDT                                                                      
/12Z TAFS/                                                                      
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET TO DFW AREA TAFS...SO VFR CONDITIONS              
HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY PULL BR            
OUT OF TAFS BECAUSE IT IS CURRENTLY PATCHY ALL AROUND THE DFW TAF               
SITES.  SO...LEFT BR IN BUT BACKED IT UP FROM 12Z TO 13Z.  EXPECT IT            
TO SCATTER OUT RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 15Z/16Z AND RETURN TO VFR                 
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
FURTHER SOUTH...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN STEADY SINCE 09Z AT ACT...             
DO NOT EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 16Z.  WINDS WILL INCREASE            
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  SKIES WILL             
BECOME OVC TOMORROW NIGHT AND REMAIN MVFR.  VCTS WILL MOST LIKELY               
NEED TO BE ADDED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW             
AT THIS TIME TO INCORPORATE INTO TAFS.                                          
77/TDUD                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
403 AM CDT                                                                      
THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS                 
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS NORTH INTO THE EXTREME                   
SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS OF 08Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL                  
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING ON A 35                
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SUNK SOUTH OF I-20...AND              
EXTENDED ALONG A BROWNWOOD...TO HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE AS OF 08Z.              
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AND A DRY LINE IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE WILL BE CAPPED ACROSS                 
NORTH TEXAS TODAY...HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS                     
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.                   
GIVEN THE FORECAST CAPES...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE                
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN             
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. THERE WILL              
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TUESDAY AS A                  
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS AND PUSH A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. DRY WEATHER               
IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. #58                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  65  78  54  67 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
WACO, TX              82  67  80  60  74 /   5  10  30  50  40                  
PARIS, TX             78  61  76  55  69 /  10  20  60  50  50                  
DENTON, TX            80  64  78  54  64 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
MCKINNEY, TX          78  63  77  56  68 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
DALLAS, TX            80  66  79  56  69 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
TERRELL, TX           82  65  78  58  72 /   5  20  40  50  50                  
CORSICANA, TX         81  64  81  61  75 /   5  10  40  50  40                  
TEMPLE, TX            82  65  81  62  79 /   5  10  30  40  40                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/25/84                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1200 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM EARLIER SHIFT. STILL EXPECT                      
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO BRING               
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING               
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY AIR                     
PRODUCING RH VALUES DROPPING TO 10 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR                
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RUC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS              
KEEP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED                   
MOISTURE LEVELS OVER OUR VERY EASTERN ZONES...WHICH WOULD HELP TO               
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THERE IF REALIZED. THIS WILL BE                    
MONITORED AND VERY SOUTHEAST EXTENT OF RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED                
TO BE TRIMMED IF THIS LOOKS TO BE THE REALITY. OF NOTE...THE RUC                
DOES APPEAR TO BE RUNNING A BIT HIGH ON CURRENT MOISTURE                        
FORECASTS...SO A LEAN TOWARD THE DRY SOLUTIONS MAY BE MORE                      
REALISTIC. OTHERWISE...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND SPEED THIS                     
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE OTHER WILD CARD WITH REGARDS TO                   
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT              
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN NE NM WILL TRACK EAST AND SE THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE                 
BY 00Z. THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER WEAK                
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND MAY KEEP WINDS BELOW ABSOLUTE RED              
FLAG CRITERIA /SUSTAINED 20FT WINDS AT 20 MPH FOR 3 HRS/.                       
STILL...EVEN IF WINDS DO FALL A BIT SHORT OF THE CRITERIA...VERY                
DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE FIRE                
DANGER VERY HIGH HERE. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE                  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS              
WILL SEE WINDS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 20 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON              
AS A LLJ SPREADS ACROSS FROM SE NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS. ALL                      
SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH RED FLAG WARNING AS IS FOR NOW...BUT MAY              
NEED TO TRIM AS THE DAY UNFOLDS...WITH THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS                      
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS IN MOST DOUBT FOR ABOVE                  
MENTIONED REASONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW JUST EAST OF               
LAS VEGAS NEW MEXICO SOUTHEAST TO NR ODESSA WILL BEGIN LIFTING                  
NORTHWARD TODAY...AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ERN                 
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE              
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND WARM TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH             
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULT            
WILL BE A RETURN TO BREEZY AND WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL HELP             
TO BOOST TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                         
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SCENARIO WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER            
CONCERNS WHICH ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.                                             
FOR TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACRS THE TX PANHANDLE              
AS A H50 SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE THRU THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS             
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THRU THE PANHANDLES AND INTO              
THE NORTHERN CWFA BY 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW             
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY LATE MORNING WITH BRISK                   
NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND COMING AROUND TO THE EAST BY            
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF SOME...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT A 30-40 KT LLJ FROM THE SE DEVELOPS AND                      
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO               
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WED MORN.             
MEANWHILE...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING                 
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. 0Z GUIDANCE IS NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH             
THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT WE WILL             
SEE SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WED AND WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS             
THE EASTERN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD                 
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS LEAD SHTWV LIFTS              
NE OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE MAXIMIZED                
NORTH...WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STILL BE DOWN IN THE PERMIAN                
BASIN. THUS FEEL THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NW ZONES            
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHILE THE THREAT OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL            
INITIALLY BE TO OUR SOUTH. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS             
FAR SOUTH AS SE NM DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LVL                 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MOST OF THE FA...EXPECT POSSIBLY THE SW                 
COUNTIES. BY LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...LIFT FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND             
A STRENGTHENING /AND VEERING/ SRLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO            
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO ABOUT 50               
PERCENT THAT AREA. THE HIGH DEGREE OF DEEP SHEAR AND ELEVATED CAPE              
WILL LEAD TO A SVR THREAT MAINLY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WITH LARGE HAIL            
APPEARING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY HOW QUICKLY             
THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE                 
INDICATING THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z            
THU. THE FCST LOOKS COMPLICATED FOR THU AS WELL. THE MAIN UPPER LOW             
MOVES NE AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY.                 
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN               
ZONES WHILE A TRAILING MID-LVL SHTWV MOVES ACROSS THE                           
PANHANDLE...SKIRTING OUR NRN ZONES. WHILE LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE              
LACKING...COLD MID-LVL TEMPS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHOWER                  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN IN THIS AREA. THE WIND SHOULD BECOME                
NW-N FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF             
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD                  
MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS FRI/SAT WITH A WARMING TREND IN STORE SUN/MON.            
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING              
PLAINS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS                 
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL                 
TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA            
THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY             
DROP TO BTWN 10 AND 15 PERCENT OVER THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING            
PLAINS. THIS...COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH AT             
20 FT AND DRY FUELS...WILL CREATE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                     
THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN                 
SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH FOR A 3 HR DURATION OR GREATER OVER PORTIONS OF             
THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS JUST                    
NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA AND RESULTS IN LOWER SPEEDS IN THE VICINITY.             
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER FORECASTER STATED...DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO CUTE            
IN TRYING TO PINPOINT AREAS THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        79  42  69  36  63 /   0   0   0  10  20                          
TULIA         81  42  68  35  59 /   0   0   0  10  30                          
PLAINVIEW     82  45  70  37  61 /   0   0   0  10  30                          
LEVELLAND     83  48  75  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20                          
LUBBOCK       83  49  74  42  63 /   0   0   0  10  20                          
DENVER CITY   83  47  78  45  74 /   0   0   0  10  20                          
BROWNFIELD    84  49  77  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  30                          
CHILDRESS     80  51  71  40  60 /  10  10  10  10  60                          
SPUR          85  53  74  42  63 /   0   0   0  10  40                          
ASPERMONT     86  55  76  47  66 /  10   0  10  10  50                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                  
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>030-033>037-039>044.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1045 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1045 AM CDT                                                                     
SUNDAY EVENING POSTFRONTAL WINDS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BACKED RAPIDLY            
OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP THE MORNING DRYLINE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO                  
BORDER. WITH SW/SSW WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THERE WILL BE              
LITTLE MECHANICAL FORCING TO THE EAST. SOME MIXING PROPAGATION WILL             
OCCUR IN THE SUNNY AREAS TO THE WEST OF FWD CWA...BUT DRYLINE BULGE             
WILL LIKELY BE INTO SW OKLAHOMA. AS EXPECTED...NEW 12Z MODELS HAVE              
DIMINISHED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. RUC/NAM STILL               
GENERATING MUCAPES (1000-900MB) IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG TO THE EAST OF            
THE BOUNDARY. WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENCE...BOUNDARY MOVEMENT ALONE             
MAY BE INSUFFICIENT TO REALIZE THIS EXTRAORDINARY INSTABILITY. ANY              
NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE WEST OF             
FWD CWA...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NE. AS A RESULT...FAR NW ZONES               
MAY GET GRAZED...WITH NO OTHER IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN            
POP GRIDS AS IS...WITH SEVERE MENTION IN FAR NW...BUT ONLY 10 POPS              
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF RECENTLY EXPANDED SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA.             
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR                
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED IMAGES/PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 25                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
715 AM CDT                                                                      
/12Z TAFS/                                                                      
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET TO DFW AREA TAFS...SO VFR CONDITIONS              
HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY PULL BR            
OUT OF TAFS BECAUSE IT IS CURRENTLY PATCHY ALL AROUND THE DFW TAF               
SITES.  SO...LEFT BR IN BUT BACKED IT UP FROM 12Z TO 13Z.  EXPECT IT            
TO SCATTER OUT RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 15Z/16Z AND RETURN TO VFR                 
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
FURTHER SOUTH...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN STEADY SINCE 09Z AT ACT...             
DO NOT EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 16Z.  WINDS WILL INCREASE            
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  SKIES WILL             
BECOME OVC TOMORROW NIGHT AND REMAIN MVFR.  VCTS WILL MOST LIKELY               
NEED TO BE ADDED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW             
AT THIS TIME TO INCORPORATE INTO TAFS.                                          
77/TDUD                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
403 AM CDT                                                                      
THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS                 
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS NORTH INTO THE EXTREME                   
SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS OF 08Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL                  
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING ON A 35                
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SUNK SOUTH OF I-20...AND              
EXTENDED ALONG A BROWNWOOD...TO HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE AS OF 08Z.              
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AND A DRY LINE IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE WILL BE CAPPED ACROSS                 
NORTH TEXAS TODAY...HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS                     
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.                   
GIVEN THE FORECAST CAPES...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE                
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN             
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. THERE WILL              
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TUESDAY AS A                  
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE                 
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS AND PUSH A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. DRY WEATHER               
IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. #58                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  65  78  54  67 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
WACO, TX              82  67  80  60  74 /   5  10  30  50  40                  
PARIS, TX             78  61  76  55  69 /  10  20  60  50  50                  
DENTON, TX            80  64  78  54  64 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
MCKINNEY, TX          78  63  77  56  68 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
DALLAS, TX            80  66  79  56  69 /  10  20  40  50  50                  
TERRELL, TX           82  65  78  58  72 /   5  20  40  50  50                  
CORSICANA, TX         81  64  81  61  75 /   5  10  40  50  40                  
TEMPLE, TX            82  65  81  62  79 /   5  10  30  40  40                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/25/84                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
100 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
100 PM CDT                                                                      
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON...SCT CI/CS.                
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRONT SURGES SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS. STRATUS              
WILL RETURN...CIGS NEAR IFR...WITH SOME BR/HZ AROUND DAYBREAK. 25               
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1028 AM CDT                                                                     
UPDATING FOR HOURLY TRENDS IN SKY/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE HAS                 
SURGED NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING                   
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED HIGH                   
TEMPS IN THE SW ZONES BASED ON RUC FORECASTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL                  
INITIALLY BE A LITTLE BREEZY AROUND MIDDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO                  
SUBSIDE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CWA AROUND SUNSET.               
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE              
NW ZONES FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY                    
UNSTABLE WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES.                         
THEREAFTER...A RAINY/STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS              
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                       
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
633 AM CDT                                                                      
/12Z TAFS/                                                                      
STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST RATHER RAPIDLY THIS              
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET BY DAYBREAK. VSBYS               
WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AT KACT AND POSSIBLY AT KAFW. CIGS SHOULD                  
LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY 16Z...FINALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE              
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS                   
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
THANKS FOR COLLAB FORT WORTH CWSU.                                              
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
615 AM CDT                                                                      
LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS ON A STRONG                 
LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE MORNING LOW CLOUDS                
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL                  
ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING UNDER THE CLOUD COVER.                 
ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES             
1/2 MILE OR LESS...EXPECT VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS               
TO  REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE. #58                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
406 AM CDT                                                                      
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST                   
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 08Z...WILL MOVE INTO                 
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS                  
FRONT WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR                     
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE                 
WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE                  
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST MONDAY                
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF                 
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND                  
DAMAGING WINDS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH                
TEXAS TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
AREAWIDE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE                 
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS                
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONGER UPPER                
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES A STRONGER COLD FRONT               
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. #58                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  59  83  65  77 /   0   0   5  20  30                  
WACO, TX              82  59  83  66  80 /   0   0   5  10  40                  
PARIS, TX             74  54  80  61  76 /   0   5  10  20  50                  
DENTON, TX            80  56  82  63  75 /   0   0  10  20  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          78  55  82  64  75 /   0   0  10  20  40                  
DALLAS, TX            79  59  82  66  79 /   0   0   5  20  30                  
TERRELL, TX           78  57  82  65  78 /   0   0   5  20  40                  
CORSICANA, TX         78  59  83  65  79 /   0   0   5  10  40                  
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  85  65  80 /   0   0   5  10  40                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/25                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1028 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATING FOR HOURLY TRENDS IN SKY/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE HAS                 
SURGED NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING                   
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED HIGH                   
TEMPS IN THE SW ZONES BASED ON RUC FORECASTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL                  
INITIALLY BE A LITTLE BREEZY AROUND MIDDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO                  
SUBSIDE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CWA AROUND SUNSET.               
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE              
NW ZONES FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY                    
UNSTABLE WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES.                         
THEREAFTER...A RAINY/STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS              
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                       
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
/12Z TAFS/                                                                      
STRATUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST RATHER RAPIDLY THIS              
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET BY DAYBREAK. VSBYS               
WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AT KACT AND POSSIBLY AT KAFW. CIGS SHOULD                  
LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY 16Z...FINALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE              
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS                   
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
THANKS FOR COLLAB FORT WORTH CWSU.                                              
SCHULTZ                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS ON A STRONG                 
LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE MORNING LOW CLOUDS                
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL                  
ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING UNDER THE CLOUD COVER.                 
ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE SEEING VISIBILITIES             
1/2 MILE OR LESS...EXPECT VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS               
TO  REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE. #58                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST                   
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 08Z...WILL MOVE INTO                 
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS                  
FRONT WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR                     
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE                 
WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE                  
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST MONDAY                
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF                 
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND                  
DAMAGING WINDS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH                
TEXAS TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
AREAWIDE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE                 
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS                
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONGER UPPER                
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES A STRONGER COLD FRONT               
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. #58                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  59  83  65  77 /   0   0   5  20  30                  
WACO, TX              82  59  83  66  80 /   0   0   5  10  40                  
PARIS, TX             74  54  80  61  76 /   0   5  10  20  50                  
DENTON, TX            80  56  82  63  75 /   0   0  10  20  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          78  55  82  64  75 /   0   0  10  20  40                  
DALLAS, TX            79  59  82  66  79 /   0   0   5  20  30                  
TERRELL, TX           78  57  82  65  78 /   0   0   5  20  40                  
CORSICANA, TX         78  59  83  65  79 /   0   0   5  10  40                  
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  85  65  80 /   0   0   5  10  40                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1233 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON                                                        
THE 07.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOME PRECIPITATION              
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE              
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND               
SNOW. DUE TO THIS MIX...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW                  
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
SENT OUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR NRN FORECAST AREA NORTH OF HWY 10 IN              
CNTL WISCONSIN FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR MESOSCALE BAND OF                      
RAIN/DZL/SNOW THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF                 
NSSL-WRF...SPC 4KM WRF /NMM/...RUC13...NCAR 4KM WRF /ARW/ ALL                   
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN DEVELOPING               
THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE                   
INTENSE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ERN               
MN. QUITE IMPRESSIVE QPF ON SOME RUNS...UP TOWARD A THIRD OF AN                 
INCH. SOUNDINGS OFF RUC13 SHOWING DEPTH OF MOISTURE JUST BARELY                 
REACHING -9C OR SO...MARGINAL FOR ICE INTRODUCTION. AND WITH                    
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOLING INTO MID/UPPER 30S...THAT/S NOT                    
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW EITHER. SO IT MAY BE JUST LIGHT RAIN.                 
HOWEVER...A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR A COOLER TEMP STRUCTURE /06Z NAM-              
WRF/ WHICH MAY PROMOTE ENOUGH ICE ALOFT FOR A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND               
OF ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. MENTIONED SOME LIGHT                          
ACCUMULATION...AND WE/LL JUST HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS                     
UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.                                                  
BINAU                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                            
TIME THIS MORNING SPENT ON REMNANTS OF FIRST POTENT MIDWEST SYSTEM              
CURRENTLY IN MN...SECOND ONE DUE IN TUESDAY...AND BIG SYSTEM                    
LURKING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION. WARM WEEKEND TEMPERATURES A                    
DISTANT MEMORY WITH WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                       
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.                                                
CURRENTLY...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTL MN/NRN WI                  
WITH PV ANOMALY ALOFT CURRENTLY APPROACHING WRN MSP AREA. RADAR                 
MOSAICS/SATELLITE CAPTURE STRONG VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS PV ANOMALY WITH SHRA/SHSN CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE CIRCULATION...AND           
ARM OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC PCPN ACROSS NERN MN WHERE 2 FEET               
OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN LAST 36 HOURS. LOCAL FORECAST AREA FEELING                
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH. PLENTY OF               
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE CRASHING THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES WITH THE                 
HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS GUSTY AS WELL SOUTH                
OF THE CIRCULATION.                                                             
TODAY...EXPECT COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST              
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WILL                   
REMAIN IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS CYCLONE AND THUS NO POPS THIS               
MORNING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PV ANOMALY...ENOUGH Q/G FORCING                 
AND PV ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ESPECIALLY                
THROUGH 15Z ACROSS AREAS OF CNTL WI NORTH OF HWY 10. TEMPERATURE                
STRUCTURE PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING FOR P-TYPE...GIVEN EROSION OF                
THE VERY WARM WEEKEND AIRMASS...REPLACED WITH COOL ENOUGH TEMPS FOR             
SNOW. EXPECT ONE MORE BAND OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP                
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF 700-500MB LOW/CIRCULATION AS IT CROSSES                    
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL NOT RUN ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS                   
EXPECT MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN...BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY. LARGE                  
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS GUARANTEE A RATHER              
RAW DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MAY SEE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES DEEPER AND LOW LEVEL                 
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BETTER CHANCES OF SUNSHINE REMAIN ALONG THE               
FAR SWRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF FORECAST AREA TODAY.                                  
TONIGHT...A LITTLE MOMENT TO CATCH OUR BREATH IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.               
CLEARING OVER SRN FORECAST AREA WILL WORK NORTH/EAST WITH                       
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT RAIN/STORMS TO               
BLOSSOM OVER KS/MO/SERN NEB AS NEXT POTENT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF HIGH              
PLAINS WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON 50KT LOW LEVEL JET                 
INTO DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER ERN KS. CUT BACK POPS FURTHER AS THIS              
SYSTEM/S EVOLUTION HAS SLOWED A BIT...AND NOW HAVE ONLY VERY SMALL              
POPS IN FAR SRN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.                                            
TUES/TUES NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING/EXPANDING AREA OF                        
RAIN/STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF HIGH PLAINS INTO IOWA AND SWRN                     
WISCONSIN TUES MORNING. STILL SEEING MODEL ISSUES HERE...BUT                    
SEEING A COMMON THEME IN 07.00Z CMC/ECMWF/SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR MAIN               
QPF AXIS TO BE LAID OUT ACROSS ERN IOWA/NRN IL/SRN WI. 07.00Z NAM-              
WRF ON NWRN SIDE OF DATASETS WITH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS MOST OF ARX                
FORECAST AREA...AND TRENDED FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD SREF/ECMWF                  
COMBINATION. HENCE...EXPECT BLOSSOMING RAIN AREA TO MOVE                        
NORTH/EAST INTO NORTHEAST IA/SWRN WI WITH MOD INTENSITY. WITH                   
STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DEEPENING AS IT TREKS ACROSS NRN MN...SFC                 
LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE AS IT MOVES FROM ILLINOIS INTO                      
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT                
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE SIGNAL WILL POINT THE HEAVY                 
RAIN AXIS ACROSS OUR SERN FORECAST AREA /SWRN WISCONSIN/ WITH                   
LIGHTER INTENSITY RAINS FURTHER NORTH/WEST. PEAK ISENTROPIC                     
ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION ON TUES AFTN/EVENING SHOULD BRING THE                     
HEAVIEST PCPN RATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPING DEFORMATION               
/FRONTOGENETIC/ BAND OF PCPN ACROSS HEART OF FORECAST AREA. IF                  
THIS GETS GOING IN EARNEST...THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL INDEED BE                   
SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POTENTIAL FOR                
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST A SEVERAL INCHES. 07.00Z NAM IS HEAVILY               
TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITHOUT SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/SREF/GFS.                 
BE THAT AS IT MAY...EVEN USING NON-NAM SOLNS BRINGS AN                          
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHTER PCPN TUESDAY                        
NIGHT...AND AM RUNNING SOME LIGHT ACCUMS AS A RESULT. VERY IFFY                 
HERE...THOUGH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND                    
QUESTIONABLE RATES FOR GOOD ACCUMULATION ON WARM SOILS. WILL NEED               
TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...AS DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ON                 
SOUNDINGS CLOSE TO 0C LENDS A NOTION IT WON/T TAKE MUCH CHANGE IN               
DYNAMICS OR TRACK OF SYSTEM TO GO TOWARD A MORE SNOW SCENARIO.                  
COULD SEE UP AN INCH OF RAIN IN FAR SERN FORECAST AREA...SO NEED                
TO WATCH RIVER RISES TOO.                                                       
SYSTEM CLEARS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DRY DAY IN                            
STORE...REMAINING COOL HOWEVER.                                                 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
DEEP UPPER LOW/LONGWAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURS-SAT. PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY                  
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION                
AMOUNTS...AND THREATS RUNNING FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW...TO                       
FLOODING. NEW 07.00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON              
TIMING A SLOWER SYSTEM THAN GFS/CMC. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN                 
THE BASE OF ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE SPINE OF                    
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY SWINGS NORTHEAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED              
WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST. UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO              
A MATURE CLOSED/STACKED CYCLONE BY FRIDAY /ECMWF/...AND MOVES ONLY              
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC              
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 530DM /ECMWF/ ARE APPROACHING 3 STANDARD                   
DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND IS ON THE DEEPER END OF THE                  
SPECTRUM. ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED              
BY FORCING VIA JET/PV ADVECTION. VERY DIFFLUENT ALOFT. SHOULD SEE               
WIDESPREAD RAINS/CONVECTION WHICH COULD BE HEAVY. 07.00Z GFS AND                
CMC...ALTHOUGH STRONG...ARE A LITTLE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE                
WITH EVOLUTION OF THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS. ALL MODELS BRING                    
GOOD QPF THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHICH IS ALREADY HANDLED IN              
FORECAST. MAY NEED TO EXTEND HIGH RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INTO                     
WEEKEND GIVEN 07.00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN. IF THE STRONGER/MORE                      
NEGATIVE TILT ECMWF VERIFIES...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING                    
THREAT AND PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN SURFACE LOW WEST OF                 
FORECAST AREA. WEAKER CANADIAN/GFS HAVE A HIGHER THREAT OF                      
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SFC LOW SOUTH OF AREA. ALL MODELS TRENDING               
SLOWER WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW THREATS INTO BULK OF WEEKEND.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST                        
TODAY...EXITING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WRAPPED            
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES UNDER AN MVFR                
OVC/BKN CEILING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. SOME IFR CEILINGS LOOK                   
POSSIBLE PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS OVER CENTRAL MN...BUT WOULD                 
LIKELY JUST AFFECT KRST. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A TROUGH                   
EXTENDING WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL PROMOTE SOME SCT -RN/SN SHOWERS              
THIS MORNING...BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WEAK                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS EVENING...PROMOTING SOME CLEARING              
ACROSS IA/ILL. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT NORTH              
OF THERE...AND WOULD TREND TOWARD KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE             
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE MOST SUPPORT...SO WILL LEAN THE TAFS               
TOWARD THIS. CLEARING WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH. TUES WILL BRING ANOTHER             
LOW INTO THE REGION...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND THEN LIKELY PCPN BY            
LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE - BOYNE                                                                  
PREV FORECAST - BINAU                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
546 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT OUT UPDATED FORECAST FOR NRN FORECAST AREA NORTH OF HWY 10 IN              
CNTL WISCONSIN FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR MESOSCALE BAND OF                      
RAIN/DZL/SNOW THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF                 
NSSL-WRF...SPC 4KM WRF /NMM/...RUC13...NCAR 4KM WRF /ARW/ ALL                   
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN DEVELOPING               
THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE                   
INTENSE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ERN               
MN. QUITE IMPRESSIVE QPF ON SOME RUNS...UP TOWARD A THIRD OF AN                 
INCH. SOUNDINGS OFF RUC13 SHOWING DEPTH OF MOISTURE JUST BARELY                 
REACHING -9C OR SO...MARGINAL FOR ICE INTRODUCTION. AND WITH                    
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOLING INTO MID/UPPER 30S...THAT/S NOT                    
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW EITHER. SO IT MAY BE JUST LIGHT RAIN.                 
HOWEVER...A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR A COOLER TEMP STRUCTURE /06Z NAM-              
WRF/ WHICH MAY PROMOTE ENOUGH ICE ALOFT FOR A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND               
OF ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. MENTIONED SOME LIGHT                          
ACCUMULATION...AND WE/LL JUST HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS                     
UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.                                                  
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON APR 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                            
TIME THIS MORNING SPENT ON REMNANTS OF FIRST POTENT MIDWEST SYSTEM              
CURRENTLY IN MN...SECOND ONE DUE IN TUESDAY...AND BIG SYSTEM                    
LURKING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION. WARM WEEKEND TEMPERATURES A                    
DISTANT MEMORY WITH WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                       
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.                                                
CURRENTLY...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTL MN/NRN WI                  
WITH PV ANOMALY ALOFT CURRENTLY APPROACHING WRN MSP AREA. RADAR                 
MOSAICS/SATELLITE CAPTURE STRONG VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS PV ANOMALY WITH SHRA/SHSN CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE CIRCULATION...AND           
ARM OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC PCPN ACROSS NERN MN WHERE 2 FEET               
OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN LAST 36 HOURS. LOCAL FORECAST AREA FEELING                
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH. PLENTY OF               
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE CRASHING THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES WITH THE                 
HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS GUSTY AS WELL SOUTH                
OF THE CIRCULATION.                                                             
TODAY...EXPECT COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST              
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WILL                   
REMAIN IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THIS CYCLONE AND THUS NO POPS THIS               
MORNING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PV ANOMALY...ENOUGH Q/G FORCING                 
AND PV ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ESPECIALLY                
THROUGH 15Z ACROSS AREAS OF CNTL WI NORTH OF HWY 10. TEMPERATURE                
STRUCTURE PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING FOR P-TYPE...GIVEN EROSION OF                
THE VERY WARM WEEKEND AIRMASS...REPLACED WITH COOL ENOUGH TEMPS FOR             
SNOW. EXPECT ONE MORE BAND OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP                
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF 700-500MB LOW/CIRCULATION AS IT CROSSES                    
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL NOT RUN ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS                   
EXPECT MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN...BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY. LARGE                  
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS GUARANTEE A RATHER              
RAW DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MAY SEE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES DEEPER AND LOW LEVEL                 
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BETTER CHANCES OF SUNSHINE REMAIN ALONG THE               
FAR SWRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF FORECAST AREA TODAY.                                  
TONIGHT...A LITTLE MOMENT TO CATCH OUR BREATH IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.               
CLEARING OVER SRN FORECAST AREA WILL WORK NORTH/EAST WITH                       
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT RAIN/STORMS TO               
BLOSSOM OVER KS/MO/SERN NEB AS NEXT POTENT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF HIGH              
PLAINS WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON 50KT LOW LEVEL JET                 
INTO DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER ERN KS. CUT BACK POPS FURTHER AS THIS              
SYSTEM/S EVOLUTION HAS SLOWED A BIT...AND NOW HAVE ONLY VERY SMALL              
POPS IN FAR SRN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.                                            
TUES/TUES NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING/EXPANDING AREA OF                        
RAIN/STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF HIGH PLAINS INTO IOWA AND SWRN                     
WISCONSIN TUES MORNING. STILL SEEING MODEL ISSUES HERE...BUT                    
SEEING A COMMON THEME IN 07.00Z CMC/ECMWF/SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR MAIN               
QPF AXIS TO BE LAID OUT ACROSS ERN IOWA/NRN IL/SRN WI. 07.00Z NAM-              
WRF ON NWRN SIDE OF DATASETS WITH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS MOST OF ARX                
FORECAST AREA...AND TRENDED FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD SREF/ECMWF                  
COMBINATION. HENCE...EXPECT BLOSSOMING RAIN AREA TO MOVE                        
NORTH/EAST INTO NORTHEAST IA/SWRN WI WITH MOD INTENSITY. WITH                   
STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DEEPENING AS IT TREKS ACROSS NRN MN...SFC                 
LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE AS IT MOVES FROM ILLINOIS INTO                      
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SREF/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT                
BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE SIGNAL WILL POINT THE HEAVY                 
RAIN AXIS ACROSS OUR SERN FORECAST AREA /SWRN WISCONSIN/ WITH                   
LIGHTER INTENSITY RAINS FURTHER NORTH/WEST. PEAK ISENTROPIC                     
ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION ON TUES AFTN/EVENING SHOULD BRING THE                     
HEAVIEST PCPN RATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPING DEFORMATION               
/FRONTOGENETIC/ BAND OF PCPN ACROSS HEART OF FORECAST AREA. IF                  
THIS GETS GOING IN EARNEST...THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL INDEED BE                   
SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POTENTIAL FOR                
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST A SEVERAL INCHES. 07.00Z NAM IS HEAVILY               
TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITHOUT SUPPORT FROM ECMWF/SREF/GFS.                 
BE THAT AS IT MAY...EVEN USING NON-NAM SOLNS BRINGS AN                          
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHTER PCPN TUESDAY                        
NIGHT...AND AM RUNNING SOME LIGHT ACCUMS AS A RESULT. VERY IFFY                 
HERE...THOUGH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND                    
QUESTIONABLE RATES FOR GOOD ACCUMULATION ON WARM SOILS. WILL NEED               
TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...AS DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ON                 
SOUNDINGS CLOSE TO 0C LENDS A NOTION IT WON/T TAKE MUCH CHANGE IN               
DYNAMICS OR TRACK OF SYSTEM TO GO TOWARD A MORE SNOW SCENARIO.                  
COULD SEE UP AN INCH OF RAIN IN FAR SERN FORECAST AREA...SO NEED                
TO WATCH RIVER RISES TOO.                                                       
SYSTEM CLEARS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DRY DAY IN                            
STORE...REMAINING COOL HOWEVER.                                                 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
DEEP UPPER LOW/LONGWAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURS-SAT. PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY                  
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION                
AMOUNTS...AND THREATS RUNNING FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW...TO                       
FLOODING. NEW 07.00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON              
TIMING A SLOWER SYSTEM THAN GFS/CMC. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN                 
THE BASE OF ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE SPINE OF                    
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY SWINGS NORTHEAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED              
WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST. UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO              
A MATURE CLOSED/STACKED CYCLONE BY FRIDAY /ECMWF/...AND MOVES ONLY              
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC              
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 530DM /ECMWF/ ARE APPROACHING 3 STANDARD                   
DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...AND IS ON THE DEEPER END OF THE                  
SPECTRUM. ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED              
BY FORCING VIA JET/PV ADVECTION. VERY DIFFLUENT ALOFT. SHOULD SEE               
WIDESPREAD RAINS/CONVECTION WHICH COULD BE HEAVY. 07.00Z GFS AND                
CMC...ALTHOUGH STRONG...ARE A LITTLE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE                
WITH EVOLUTION OF THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOWS. ALL MODELS BRING                    
GOOD QPF THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHICH IS ALREADY HANDLED IN              
FORECAST. MAY NEED TO EXTEND HIGH RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INTO                     
WEEKEND GIVEN 07.00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN. IF THE STRONGER/MORE                      
NEGATIVE TILT ECMWF VERIFIES...MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING                    
THREAT AND PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN SURFACE LOW WEST OF                 
FORECAST AREA. WEAKER CANADIAN/GFS HAVE A HIGHER THREAT OF                      
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SFC LOW SOUTH OF AREA. ALL MODELS TRENDING               
SLOWER WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW THREATS INTO BULK OF WEEKEND.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST                        
TODAY...EXITING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WRAPPED            
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES UNDER AN MVFR                
OVC/BKN CEILING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. SOME IFR CEILINGS LOOK                   
POSSIBLE PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS OVER CENTRAL MN...BUT WOULD                 
LIKELY JUST AFFECT KRST. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A TROUGH                   
EXTENDING WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL PROMOTE SOME SCT -RN/SN SHOWERS              
THIS MORNING...BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WEAK                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS EVENING...PROMOTING SOME CLEARING              
ACROSS IA/ILL. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT NORTH              
OF THERE...AND WOULD TREND TOWARD KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE             
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE MOST SUPPORT...SO WILL LEAN THE TAFS               
TOWARD THIS. CLEARING WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH. TUES WILL BRING ANOTHER             
LOW INTO THE REGION...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND THEN LIKELY PCPN BY            
LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
416 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
BEGINNING OF VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE WEATHER BEGINS TODAY                  
WITH FIRST OF 3 POTENT SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SECOND                 
SYSTEM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT...AS WELL              
AS RAIN CHANCES TODAY. NICE SPRING WARMTH HANGS ON ONE MORE                     
DAY...BEFORE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR REST OF THE WEEK.                            
CURRENTLY...EFFECTS OF FIRST POTENT UPPER TROUGH /OVER WRN SD PER               
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS/ STARTING TO BE SEEN IN                           
OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS. BROAD SLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR OVER                      
FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES VERY SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH              
40S/50S ACROSS THE AREA. SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM                            
BROOKINGS/WATERTOWN SD NORTHEAST TO HAYWARD WI WITH BANDS OF                    
CONVECTIVE SNOW NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVER NERN MN. WEAKER LEAD                   
SHORTWAVE OVER SERN NEB KICKING OFF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDER IN                 
THIS AREA PER KOAX RADAR. LARGE VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE                
AREA. ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE UPSTREAM OVER NERN PACIFIC...WHICH                
IS TUESDAY/S SYSTEM.                                                            
TODAY/TONIGHT...THINKING HERE HAS NOT CHANGED ALL TOO                           
MUCH...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS                    
CYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHEAST ALONG THE SHARP FRONTAL               
ZONE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SD/MN TODAY.               
INITIAL WAVE OVER SERN NEB THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT                      
NORTHEAST INTO SRN MN BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND ALL HI-RES WRF                 
MODELS /NSSL...4KM SPC NMM...4KM NCAR ARW...AND LOCAL ARF-WRF/                  
EXPAND CURRENT ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER SERN NEB INTO NRN IA/SRN MN               
LATER THIS MORNING. QUESTIONS HOW FAR EAST THIS WILL MAKE IT...SO               
RAN HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING IN I-35 CORRIDOR...DECREASING TOWARD               
MS RIVER. AS CYCLONE DEEPENS/LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...MAIN PV                    
ANOMALY ALOFT AND Q/G FORCING OVERSPREADS SHARPENING COLD FRONTAL               
ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MS RIVER THIS AFTN/EVENING. SHOULD                
SEE NARROW BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOP WITH TIME IN                         
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF                       
INTERSTATE 90 CLOSER TO PARENT DYNAMICS ALOFT. RAIN AMOUNTS                     
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUARTER INCH OR LESS...BUT A FEW               
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY DROP UP TO A HALF INCH EAST OF MS              
RIVER THIS EVENING. AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL BECOMES DEFINED IN              
Q/G FIELDS OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE RAPID END IN PCPN FROM SW-NE                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TAILORED POPS/TIMING IN THIS FASHION.                        
A QUIET MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS                    
SYSTEM. MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES/SNOW SHOWERS IN STEEPER LAPSE RATE                
REGION/STRATOCUMULUS ON MONDAY MORNING OVER NRN AREAS...AND MUCH                
COOLER.                                                                         
NEXT ISSUE...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ONE...IS EVEN MORE DYNAMIC WAVE               
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPACTS SHIFTING INTO THE LOCAL                  
AREA. REALLY A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE GIVEN BACK-AND-FORTH              
DEPICTION OF DEPTH/INTENSITY OF TROPOSPHERIC WAVE AND SFC LOW.                  
06.00Z GFS/CMC DEFINITELY IN ONE CAMP WHICH IS A WEAKER/MORE OPEN               
WAVE SLIDING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WITH BAND OF RAIN/SNOW TUES                 
AFTN/EVENING OVER THE SOUTH/EAST...NOT A HIGH IMPACT. 06.00Z ECMWF              
BACK TO VERY DYNAMIC/CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVING                   
THROUGH IL/WI WITH SIG QPF EVENT...SOME OF WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY                    
WOULD BE HEAVY SNOW GIVEN CRASHING THICKNESSES/THERMAL STRUCTURE                
IN HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN. QPF DIFFERENCES FROM THESE 3                    
GLOBAL MODELS IS VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE AREA...LITTLE TO NONE ON                
06.00Z CMC...LESS THAN A HALF INCH ON 06.00Z GFS...AND 1.0-1.5                  
INCHES ON 06.00Z ECMWF. 06.03Z SREF QPF ON THE HEAVIER                          
SIDE...WHICH RAISES FLAG THAT ECMWF MAY BE MORE CORRECT HERE...AND              
THIS CERTAINLY SEEN IN MREF PLUMES WHERE A GOOD NUMBER OF RUNS ARE              
TOWARD THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CERTAINLY BEEN                      
DEPICTED AS A DEEP/CLOSED SYSTEM UNTIL LAST NIGHTS 05.06Z GFS AND               
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. SO THE BOTTOMLINE...IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS                      
LOW...SO MAINTAINED BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY               
NIGHT ON THE SOUTH/EAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THERE IS DEFINITELY              
A HEAVY SNOW THREAT HERE...AND THIS BEARS OUT IN HPC DAY3 SNOW                  
RISKS. GIVEN VERY MARGINAL THERMAL STRUCTURE IN THE BOUNDARY                    
LAYER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS...AND THE FACT IT WILL BE APRIL                    
8TH...THERE IS A LOT GOING AGAINST A HEAVY SNOW EVENT.                          
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS DO INDEED SUPPORT SNOW FROM A WIDE ASSORTMENT               
OF MODELS...AND IF HEAVY QPF MATERIALIZES...WILL NEED TO REMAIN                 
OPEN TO THIS POTENTIAL. IF ONLY RAIN WERE TO FALL...WE MAY BE                   
DEALING WITH FLOOD ISSUES GIVEN RIVERS RUNNING A LITTLE ON HIGH                 
SIDE GIVEN LAST SOAK A FEW DAYS AGO.                                            
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION SQUARELY ON VERY LARGE/POTENT UPPER               
TROUGH AND SFC CYCLONE SET TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA              
ON THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR               
NUMEROUS THREATS...HEAVY RAIN...RUNOFF...THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY                  
SNOW...ALL DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF SFC LOW. ALL LONGER RANGE                      
GUIDANCE INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CNTL                 
CONUS AND LOCAL AREA...SO POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN                
COMING SHIFTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SYNOPTIC HEAVY RAINFALL                  
EVENT IN WARM SECTOR PER MODEL QPFS...AND STRONG                                
KINEMATICS/THERMODYNAMICS. OR THE CONTRARY...A LATE SEASON HEAVY                
SNOW EVENT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH PLENTY COLD ENOUGH AIR AND              
DYNAMIC COOLING FOR THIS STRIPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS                     
USUAL...THERE ARE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES HERE WITH 06.00Z ECMWF               
QUICKER/STRONGER WITH SFC LOW THROUGH HEART OF FORECAST AREA THURS              
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST AND SLOWER...AND THIS                  
VERY IMPORTANT TO P-TYPE AND MAX QPF AXIS WITHIN THE RESPECTIVE                 
MODELS. 06.00Z CMC MUCH CLOSER TO 06.00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN. ALSO IN                 
PLAY HERE WITH SUCH A DEEP SYSTEM IS DRY SLOT. REGARDLESS....NEED               
TO WATCH THIS MONSTER SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS                    
RANGING FROM WINTER STORM TO HEAVY RAIN TO SEVERE WEATHER...ALL                 
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW TRACK. ALSO...WOULD              
SEEM FRI/SAT TEMPERATURES TOO OPTIMISTIC RIGHT NOW GIVEN PCPN                   
POTENTIAL AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR LURKING. AS OF NOW...MADE NO                   
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...BUT DO SEE INCREASE IN POPS                       
WARRANTED PARTICULARLY THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH...THIN CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...WITH             
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING AS A COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION                
BETWEEN 00-06Z...BRINGING A THREAT FOR SOME -SHRA/TSRA...ALTHOUGH               
THE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES LOOK SMALL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.                
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POST THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO                          
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS                                     
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RIECK                                                                
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
325 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING AN ACTIVE NORTHERN            
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. MOST                      
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE TAKES THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW/POTENT SHORTWAVE              
FEATURES SPINNING AND MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO                
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE SEE MORE LONGWAVE                  
TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING IS             
THEN FOUND FURTHER UPSTREAM COMING ASHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA              
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FURTHER SOUTH THE FLOW IS MORE ZONAL IN NATURE             
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WEAK               
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN             
GULF OF MEXICO WITH ALL ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS REMAINING                
WELL TO OUR SOUTH.                                                              
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEDGED DOWN TO THE EAST OF THE               
APPALACHIANS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF              
MEXICO. BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEDGE                
RUNNING OUT OF GAS IN ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PROGRESSION. THE                 
BOUNDARY IS NOW LYING FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE AL SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST            
OF BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...THEN SOUTHEAST TO NEAR PANAMA CITY               
BEACH AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE BOUNDARY              
THEN TURNS EAST AND RUNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM              
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA TO MELBOURNE. BEHIND THE                            
BOUNDARY...AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST.            
CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH BASES FROM AROUND                     
1500-2500KFT. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE              
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA               
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF             
COAST IS FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO HEIGHT RISES PER 00Z GFS/NAM AS THE            
FLOW RIDGES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS RIDGING THROUGH A                
LARGE PORTION OF THE COLUMN SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT             
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                            
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUD AND               
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHEAST ARE COMMON WITH THESE WEDGE HIGH SCENARIOS...HOWEVER THE              
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVER A LONG PERIOD AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE            
STRATUS MIXES OUT IN ANY ONE LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY CAN BE VERY               
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. WILL USE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST APPROACH AND            
NOT GO TOO COOL OR TOO WARM IN ANY ONE SPOT. THE FACT THAT THE                  
STRATUS HAS RETAINED A RATHER BROKEN APPEARANCE INTO THE EARLY                  
MORNING HOURS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST                
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM. HOWEVER...AS               
MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE CAN NEVER BE THAT HIGH IN THESE                    
SITUATIONS. THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVES A HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID             
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
SOUTH THAT SEE ENOUGH SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE                    
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.                                          
WILL LIKELY SEE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH THE FORMATION AND EXPANSION OF              
AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT. REALLY SHOULD BE LITTLE                   
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD             
COVER AND TEMPS. LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO              
NEAR 60 IN THE EAST AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE WEST.                     
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL                 
CROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS             
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER                
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND NUDGE THE SURFACE            
HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING                    
EAST...FLOW WILL COME AROUND MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH             
THE DAY. THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS               
PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS TO STALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK            
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AND MORE             
POTENT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.                
THE FORECAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WAS                
HEAVILY BASED ON THE NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS. GFS HAS A SIGNIFICANT                  
CONVECTIVE "BLOWUP" IN THE SOUTHEAST GOMEX TUESDAY                              
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RESIDUAL EFFECT FROM THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT               
PUSH NORTH AND RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER            
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGE FOR THE              
GFS FIELDS HAVE DECIDED TO BASE THE FORECAST ON A DRIER AND CLEARER             
FORECAST. A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE                   
CONVERGENCE MAY STILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACROSS THE            
FL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR                    
BETWEEN.                                                                        
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FORCE THE             
RIDGE TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE RESULT SHOULD             
BE A WARM AND MOIST DAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE                    
BETWEEN THE HIGH OFF TO OUR EAST AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE             
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE              
IMMEDIATE COAST AND THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SLIGHT RISK OF AN                
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTORM OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS FOR               
THE AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS LOW PUSHES SLOWLY               
EAST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.                   
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WELL                
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. DIGGING              
SHORTWAVE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGHLY            
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.                   
DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER NRN GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT DROPS TO NRN MID-ATLC             
BY 18Z SUN. DIGGING LOW COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DEFINE             
SURFACE LOW AND DRIVE NEXT COLD FRONT SEWD.                                     
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY                 
FRIDAY. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF LOW/FRONT THAN                  
PREV RUN BUT GFS STILL THE OUTLIER AND FASTER THAN ECMWF/CANADIAN.              
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RETARD THE             
GFS`S FAST ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.             
THUS LEANING TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS SHOWS LOW IN SRN PLAINS              
00Z FRI WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD. LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY N/NE TO SRN            
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI...FRONT THRU WRN TENN-ERN ARK...ERN MOST TX.             
BY 12Z SAT...LOW OVER NRN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT APPROACHING CWA AND            
THEN MOVING ACROSS DURING SAT DAY.                                              
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT LIFT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY TIME FRONT             
ARRIVES WITH HI SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING FRI EVE MAINLY NW THIRD OF             
CWA SPREADING TO WRN HALF OF CWA FRI NIGHT AND ACROSS ERN CWA ON SAT            
ENDING SAT EVENING EAST. WITH SLOWER SOLUTION FAVORED HAVE FOCUSED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT. IN WAKE OF FRONT...ANOTHER DRY                
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH OVER WEEKEND WITH              
MODERATE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER COOLER CONDITIONS               
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.                                   
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE CLIMO ON FRI WITH INLAND HIGHS LIKELY               
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S...THEN DROP TO MID-UPPER 70S SAT WITH             
FRONT AND MID 60S SE ALA TO LOW 70S SE BIG BEND ON SUN AND MON IN               
WAKE OF FRONT BEFORE INCHING UP TO LOW 70S ON TUES. INLAND LOW TEMPS            
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FRI AND SAT MORNING...LOW-MID 60S THEN IN               
WAKE OF FRONT DROP AROUND 50 SUN AND AROUND 40 MON BEFORE INCHING UP            
TO MID 40S TUES MORNING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS LOW                   
CEILINGS...ALTHO VSBYS WILL NOT DROP AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHT...                
CIGS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LIFR RANGE. VFR VSBYS EXPECTED BY 14Z               
BUT MVFR CIGS TO LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. THEN...VFR CONDS UNTIL AROUND              
06Z WED WHEN MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST WATERS RESIDE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE               
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF              
MEXICO. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS A LARGE            
PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA BEFORE DROPPING A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.             
YET ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS IS EXPECTED                
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES                
EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOK FOR WINDS             
TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH BY             
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP RH VALUES             
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.                      
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL ONLY INCREASE               
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT                   
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  79  58  80  61  82 /   0   0  10  10  20                           
PANAMA CITY  78  61  78  64  79 /   0   0  20  10  20                           
DOTHAN       76  57  79  61  81 /   0   0  10  10  20                           
ALBANY       76  55  80  58  80 /   0   0  10  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     76  55  79  58  81 /   0   0  10  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   80  57  80  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
AVIATION/LONG TERM...BLOCK                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1155 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PTYPE THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED             
CHANCE SNOW IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN. LOTS OF DRY            
AIR AT H850 THIS EVENING AND NEW NAM...THOUGH NAM ISNT INITIALIZING             
THE EXTENT OF QPF PRESENTLY...IT CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A FASTER             
RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MIX GOING...ONCE IT BEGINS...                
THOUGH IF SHOWERS ARE HEAVY ENOUGH...WE COULD HAVE A SITUATION                  
SIMILAR TO LAST THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF WET SNOW SURROUNDED BY                 
AREAS OF RAINFALL. FOR THE MOMENT THE SNOW OVER NE HAS LESSENED.                
WILL BE LOOKING AT LATEST GFS AND RUC CLOSELY. EARLIER...UPDATED                
ZONES FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOUTH. ALREADY GETTING            
MEASURABLE ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES. LOTS OF VIRGA OUTSIDE ATTM                
WITH DRY LAYER BEGINNING TO FILL IN. SNOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTH                  
CENTRAL NE AND WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT UPPER AIR/NEW MODEL OUTPUT            
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR ANY SIGN OF PTYPE ISSUES TUES./REV              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH             
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE              
CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND TRYING TO FORM WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BAROCLINIC            
LEAF ON THE LEE SIDE.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS TX/NEW              
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE            
LOW INTO OK AND SRN MO.  OVERRUNNING SETTING UP AND PRODUCING                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER KS AND NEB.  AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN            
IT SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FROM THE              
LOOKS OF THINGS THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA              
AND THUS ONLY MEAGER CAPE VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  THERE                  
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  THIS             
SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO IOWA TO GIVE A SMALL PORTION OF SE IA A             
SHOT AT SOME THUNDER.  SHEAR IS DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH                
VERY LOW CAPES AND THE AREA NOT GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR AT ALL             
I WOULD EXPECT ELEVATED STORMS THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING              
LIKE MUCH AT THIS POINT.  QPF HOWEVER LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS A BETTER             
MOISTURE TAP OCCURS BY 18Z TUES.  SYSTEM LIFTS OUT BY LATE TUESDAY.             
THERE WILL THEN BE A BRIEF RESPITE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                
MOVES IN THEN DEPARTS BY MID EVENING.  THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN BEGINS              
TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                      
THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE MAINLY ON TIMING BUT GENERAL             
TRENDS ARE TO LIFT THE LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS                
IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW             
MUCH COLD AIR THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO.  THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH                
THIS SYSTEM AND THUS ALLOWS A LITTLE MORE COLD AIR INTO THE NW.  THE            
EURO HAS A BIGGER GULF TAP AND PUTS THE WARM SECTOR INTO MORE INTO              
EASTERN IOWA THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN LATER             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF               
THE UPPER LOW I LIKE THE SLOWER GFS BUT THINK THAT THE WARM SECTOR              
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA.  IN SHORT I WENT WITH A BLEND            
OF THE GFS/EURO.  THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL SNOW PRODUCER FOR                   
LOCATIONS NORTH OF IOWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SLIP              
INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...08/06Z                                                              
COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. MODELS HAVE  TO             
INITIALIZED THE 00Z RUN BETTER WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER AS FOR QPF             
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. GFS/NAM CONTINUE DIFFERENT BUT SOME                    
COMMONALITIES IN PTYPE NOW SHOWING UP. FOR THE LATE MORNING TO                  
AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF R/S AND POSSIBLE A QUICK            
CHANGEOVER TO -SN/SN FROM EAST OF KDSM TO NEAR KALO FOR A PERIOD OF             
2 TO 3 HOURS. FOR LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFT HOURS...CIGS WILL                
DROP INTO MVFR CAT WITH NORTHERN SITES DOWN TO IFR PRIOR TO CIGS                
LIFTING. MODELS NOW INDICATE THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY BY 03 TO 06Z SO            
MAY NEED TO LIFG CIGS FASTER IN NEXT PACKAGE. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER               
CIGS TUES 15Z-20Z IF THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW.                           
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MS APR 08/REV                                                      
AVIATION...REV                                                                  
LONG TERM...FAB                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
349 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS A WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS                      
CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF                   
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE               
PAST COUPLE HOURS. PHP REPORTED -RA AND 36 DEGREES THE PAST HOUR                
BUT PIR STILL HAS A CEILING OF 10000 FT. RADAR ECHOES WOULD                     
SUGGEST WESTERN PARTS OF JONES/STANLEY COUNTIES ARE SEEING                      
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WHICH                
WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN                 
FACT...PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND IS              
BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RUC MODEL IS                 
PICKING UP ON THIS AND BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST                  
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 06Z NAM/00Z GFS AND SREF                  
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS                     
WARRANTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT                   
LEAST. OTHERWISE...MORE CLOUDS WILL BE HAD ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA TODAY AS THE WEAK WAVES SLIDE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES                  
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE FAIRLY WELL OVER THE SNOWFIELD...AS                
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GOING              
TOO HIGH. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO MONDAYS               
HIGHS BUT AREAS THAT WERE HELD BACK ON MONDAY WILL BE ABLE TO                   
REBOUND TODAY AS SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS.                                       
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY                 
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A                
STRONG WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING PRECIP               
STARTING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SO              
HAVE INSERTED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE                
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN INTO                
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE A RAIN OR SNOW                    
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. BUFKIT                   
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST PIR/MBG STAY RAIN ALL THE WAY INTO                      
THURSDAY.                                                                       
.LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                       
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND LATE                 
SEASON WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME                 
FRAME.                                                                          
MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLN FOR THE THURSDAY                 
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE                
WEST...COMING IN LINE MUCH CLOSER TO PREVIOUS EC RUNS. 12Z                      
THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING ACROSS 4 CORNERS                
AREA. BY 00Z FRIDAY EC ADVERTISES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FOR THE               
CWA...WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE LIFT FOR US. THE GFS ISN`T AS STRONG              
WITH THE COUPLED JET FEATURE...BUT SHOWS A LOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE              
ACROSS THE FAR ERN CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE EC HAS BEEN RATHER                    
CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNT OF 7H/85H THETA-E FORCING THAT TAKES PLACE               
FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SO FAR THIS SPRING TROWAL                 
INDUCED SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RATHER EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING SNOW...AND              
GIVEN THAT BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG OMEGA VALUES LIFTING THROUGH SNOW                
PRODUCTION ZONE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MUCH THE SAME. BUFKIT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH MEASUREMENTS IN FEET RATHER                 
THAN INCHES. WITH 5H CLOSED LOW LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT              
THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ESPECIALLY WHEN                
THE GFS 7H-3H Q-VECTOR ANALYS SHOWS WAA FORCING CONTINUING ACROSS               
NERN CWA THROUGH NEARLY 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED                  
TROWAL FEATURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT PCPN TYPE TO BEGIN THE              
EXTENDED ON THURSDAY. THE GFS 85H-7H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT              
THE SW PART OF THE CWA MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND 85H/925H                   
TEMPS DO SUPPORT THAT. BUT GIVEN EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT IS                    
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE MODELS                   
SHOWING 85H AND 925MB TEMPS COOLING...EXPECT A TURN OVER TO SNOW                
FOR ALL THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. AS CLOSED/STACKED SYSTEM SLOWLY                
EXITS EAST ON SATURDAY...HAVE PCPN ENDING ALSO WEST TO EAST FOR                 
THAT TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THAT GFS IS SHOWING THAT 925MB GEOSTROPHIC              
WINDS ARE 40-50 KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT THAT HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE THURSDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD.                
TEMP WISE...WITH EXPECTED ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND PCPN FOR                      
THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...HAVE KNOCKED AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF              
OF INHERITED FORECAST HIGHS. DON`T SEE MUCH RECOVERY FROM                       
OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOR MUCH DIURNAL TREND ONCE PCPN BEGINS.                       
FORECASTED HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK JUST A BIT                         
FURTHER...BUT CAN FINE TUNE THAT AS EVENT APPROACHES.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SKIRTING ACROSS NEB ATTM...WITH MID/HI               
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS TERMINAL SITES. AREA OF -RA/-SN               
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA MAY IMPACT KPIR TERMINAL AFT                      
11Z...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. THIS PCPN SHOULD END BY 16Z WITH                 
VFR CIGS MOVING BACK INTO THE KPIR TERMINAL BY 18Z. LOOK FOR VFR                
CONDS FOR THE KMBG/KABR/KATY TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH               
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN ON WED BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST             
LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES                  
THIS WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL INVOLVE CLOUD COVER AND MAX                  
TEMPERATURES...AS THE PERSISTENT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN               
CONTROL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS              
A HOLE IN THE THICK LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN GEORGIA. THIS AREA OF               
CLEARING HAS LINGERED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT HAS NOT                  
EXPANDED DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE                  
SOME WEAKENING IN THE CEILINGS OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN             
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS HOUR. THE RUC13 SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE CLOUD PATTERN          
FAIRLY WELL...AND THE MODEL SHORT TERM FORECAST SUGGESTS A MORE                 
SIGNIFICANT SCATTERING OF THE CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON                
OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEABREEZE.                 
CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN                 
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE WEDGE...SUCH AS A               
LINE ALONG AND WEST OF JENKINS COUNTY INTO WESTERN BERKELEY                     
COUNTY.                                                                         
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON THE               
EXTENT OF CLEARING THAT OCCURS. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE               
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW OBSERVATIONS...SO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR              
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TREND. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST                  
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS SCATTERING CLOUD COVER MAY INDEED ALLOW MAX              
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 68 DEGREES NORTHERN COUNTIES TO                  
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHERN ZONES. SKY COVER TREND IS ALSO WELL-HANDLED              
IN THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY                 
OTHERWISE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...                       
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR                
LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY                 
FORECAST OVERALL AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH COOLEST            
READINGS INLAND FROM CHARLESTON AND BEAUFORT AND WARMEST ALONG THE              
ENTIRE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT                  
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                  
OUR INLAND LOCATIONS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE                  
EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN               
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN            
RAIN FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH               
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY...AND            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND             
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN RAIN                
FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.                                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY                  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL              
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD                   
LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY            
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.                           
N TO NE WINDS MOSTLY BLO 15 KT TODAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY                   
LATE DAY.                                                                       
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INDICATE IFR OR LOWER CIGS                
AT EITHER TAF LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A POTENTIAL FOR THIS                      
DEVELOPMENT DOES EXIST WITHIN DIMINISHING WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                                 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WED. MVFR               
OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG THU AND FRI MORNINGS. MVFR                       
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS                
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INLAND AND LOW                    
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SLIPS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. ONGOING                  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT CHARLESTON HARBOR                   
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK. ADVISORY WILL BE UPHELD IN THE NEARSHORE             
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON JUST DUE TO SEAS              
FROM 4 TO 6 FEET SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEARSHORE         
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW SYSTEM CREATING                
THE PINCHED GRADIENT...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS BEING MET                   
CURRENTLY THROUGH WINDS AND SEAS AND WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH                 
THE EVENING BY SEAS ONLY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH DURING THE                 
PAST FEW DAYS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA               
WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                                                  
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GENERAL GRADIENT RELAXATION TREND                 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA                        
WATERS...WHILE BEING A BIT SLOWER TO DECREASE OVER BOTH OF THE                  
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES.                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WEDNESDAY                
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST             
ON SATURDAY. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT               
CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA              
WATERS THROUGH AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE            
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH               
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
TIDE LEVELS REACHED SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA AT DOWNTOWN               
CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI GEORGIA LAST EVENING AND MAY DO SO                  
AGAIN AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING RISK                
MAY NECESSITATE A RE-ISSUANCE OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES LATER                 
TODAY FOR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.                                               
RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TODAY.               
A LINGERING NE SWELL COMPONENT MAY ELEVATE THE RISK SOMEWHAT ON                 
WED.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-         
     352.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1128 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY COVER THIS MORNING AS SOME CLEARING                   
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A                 
BIT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA DUE TO MORE WARMING TAKING PLACE UNDER              
MORE SUN. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS A WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS                      
CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF                   
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE               
PAST COUPLE HOURS. PHP REPORTED -RA AND 36 DEGREES THE PAST HOUR                
BUT PIR STILL HAS A CEILING OF 10000 FT. RADAR ECHOES WOULD                     
SUGGEST WESTERN PARTS OF JONES/STANLEY COUNTIES ARE SEEING                      
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WHICH                
WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN                 
FACT...PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND IS              
BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RUC MODEL IS                 
PICKING UP ON THIS AND BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST                  
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 06Z NAM/00Z GFS AND SREF                  
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS                     
WARRANTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT                   
LEAST. OTHERWISE...MORE CLOUDS WILL BE HAD ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA TODAY AS THE WEAK WAVES SLIDE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES                  
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE FAIRLY WELL OVER THE SNOWFIELD...AS                
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THEM FROM GOING              
TOO HIGH. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO MONDAYS               
HIGHS BUT AREAS THAT WERE HELD BACK ON MONDAY WILL BE ABLE TO                   
REBOUND TODAY AS SNOW COVER IS MUCH LESS.                                       
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY                 
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A                
STRONG WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING PRECIP               
STARTING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SO              
HAVE INSERTED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE                
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH              
DAKOTA. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN INTO                
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE A RAIN OR SNOW                    
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. BUFKIT                   
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST PIR/MBG STAY RAIN ALL THE WAY INTO                      
THURSDAY.                                                                       
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND LATE                 
SEASON WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME                 
FRAME.                                                                          
MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLN FOR THE THURSDAY                 
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE                
WEST...COMING IN LINE MUCH CLOSER TO PREVIOUS EC RUNS. 12Z                      
THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING ACROSS 4 CORNERS                
AREA. BY 00Z FRIDAY EC ADVERTISES A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FOR THE               
CWA...WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE LIFT FOR US. THE GFS ISN`T AS STRONG              
WITH THE COUPLED JET FEATURE...BUT SHOWS A LOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE              
ACROSS THE FAR ERN CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE EC HAS BEEN RATHER                    
CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNT OF 7H/85H THETA-E FORCING THAT TAKES PLACE               
FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SO FAR THIS SPRING TROWAL                 
INDUCED SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RATHER EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING SNOW...AND              
GIVEN THAT BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG OMEGA VALUES LIFTING THROUGH SNOW                
PRODUCTION ZONE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MUCH THE SAME. BUFKIT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH MEASUREMENTS IN FEET RATHER                 
THAN INCHES. WITH 5H CLOSED LOW LIFTING NEARLY DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT              
THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ESPECIALLY WHEN                
THE GFS 7H-3H Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS WAA FORCING CONTINUING ACROSS             
NERN CWA THROUGH NEARLY 12Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED                  
TROWAL FEATURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT PCPN TYPE TO BEGIN THE              
EXTENDED ON THURSDAY. THE GFS 85H-7H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THAT              
THE SW PART OF THE CWA MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND 85H/925H                   
TEMPS DO SUPPORT THAT. BUT GIVEN EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT IS                    
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH THE MODELS                   
SHOWING 85H AND 925M TEMPS COOLING...EXPECT A TURN OVER TO SNOW                 
FOR ALL THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. AS CLOSED/STACKED SYSTEM SLOWLY                
EXITS EAST ON SATURDAY...HAVE PCPN ENDING ALSO WEST TO EAST FOR                 
THAT TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THAT GFS IS SHOWING THAT 925MB GEOSTROPHIC              
WINDS ARE 40-50 KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY...HAVE NO DOUBT THAT HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE THURSDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD.                
TEMP WISE...WITH EXPECTED ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND PCPN FOR                      
THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...HAVE KNOCKED AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OFF              
OF INHERITED FORECAST HIGHS. DON`T SEE MUCH RECOVERY FROM                       
OVERNIGHT LOWS...NOR MUCH DIURNAL TREND ONCE PCPN BEGINS.                       
FORECASTED HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK JUST A BIT                         
FURTHER...BUT CAN FINE TUNE THAT AS EVENT APPROACHES.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 6K AND 10K FEET WILL REMAIN ALONG                 
THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER CLOUDS AOA 11K FEET              
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN                   
CWA...WHILE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL SEE JUST                
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.                 
VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...HINTZ                                                               
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1024 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEDGE REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS TWO AREAS OF              
LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE                         
SOUTHEASTERN COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL              
PASS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON            
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA                
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WHILE THE TREND OF THE LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FOR IT TO PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE                     
SHALLOW...SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD                    
ADVECTION OF A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT. THINK THIS             
WILL KEEP THE PIEDMONT AREAS CLOUDY LONGER THAN EARLIER FCST-                   
ESPECIALLY THE VA PIEDMONT...SO I WILL RAISE SKY COVER SOME AND                 
LOWER MAX TEMPS. LOOKING AT RNK SOUNDING...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT HEATING SHOULD STILL MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS              
FOR SOME SUN THIS AFT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
TONIGHT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION RETURNS...LOOK FOR LOW CLOUDS              
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF                    
REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.               
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED MET MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES                
WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL BIASES.                                              
WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN               
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO FINALLY ERODE OUT THE WEDGE...BUT CLOUD               
COVER SHOULD STILL BE ABUNDANT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO            
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO MOVE             
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND NOON...AND REMAIN                     
GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE WEST AND ALSO THE NORTH. THE BULK            
OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTS PARENT LOW WILL STAY              
NORTH OF THE REGION.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL              
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE GULF AND WITH             
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY INTO THE                    
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH                
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT HIGHER                       
ELEVATIONS.                                                                     
850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE +10 TO +13 DEGREE RANGE UNTIL THE             
FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM             
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                               
GFS IS SHOWING SIGNS IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS OF A                    
PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION THAT REACHES THE EAST COAST BY                    
SATURDAY EVENING. GFS ALSO HAS A SLIGHTLY DEEP SURFACE WAVE ALONG               
THE FRONT IN VIRGINIA ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN ON PRECIOUS RUNS                 
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS LINES UP CLOSE TO              
TIMING SHOWN ON THE ECMWF SO WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE OF                       
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
HAVE USED BUFKIT FROM THE 06Z NAM AND RUC TO FINE TUNE WHEN                     
STRATUS SHUD SCATTER OUT OF TAF SITES. EXPECT CLEARING TO MAKE IT               
FARTHER EAST THAN ON MONDAY. EDGE OF STRATUS IS ALREADY VERY CLOSE              
TO BLF SO EXPECT THEY WILL BECOME VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z.                           
BROUGHT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS BACK INTO THE TAFS AFTER 08Z BUT                   
MOISTURE IS GETTING VERY SHALLOW. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST NIGHT IN              
THE WEDGE. EVEN LYH WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON                       
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
ON WED...ONCE SITES BREAK OUT WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR                  
AND SW FLOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WED NIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED               
TO STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST. BLF AND LWB WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR MVFR              
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KM                                                                   
NEAR TERM...JJ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DS                                                                 
LONG TERM...AMS                                                                 
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK                                                            
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
149 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL                    
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. AT THAT TIME...A SURFACE COLD                       
FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND                     
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WILL STALL. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL                  
BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND                
GLIDING UP AND OVER THE COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. BY MIDNIGHT                
TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. IN               
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS              
EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROBY...THROUGH               
SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY               
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE                  
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A               
LINE FROM ROBY TO SONORA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST                    
CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO                
MOVE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.                                   
23/HUBER                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS               
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT A MUCH COLDER THAN WE WERE               
PREVIOUSLY THINKING. FOR EXAMPLE...WE WERE THINKING THE                         
TEMPERATURE WOULD BE AROUND 70 IN ABILENE BY NOON. AS OF 11                     
AM...THE TEMPERATURE THERE HAD FALLEN TO 58 DEGREES. ALSO...LOW                 
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING SOONER THAN WE WERE THINKING. THE LATEST RUC                
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THIS FRONT. DECIDED TO LOWER AFTERNOON              
HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY.                             
ALSO...ADJUSTED DEWPOINT...WIND...AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER               
OF TODAY TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.                  
LATEST ZONE AND POINT FORECAST MATRIX PRODUCTS REFLECT THESE                    
ADJUSTMENTS.                                                                    
23/HUBER                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA               
THROUGH 08/15Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. MVFR                
CIGS BKN020-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 08/18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN AND                 
EASTERN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS                 
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS               
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL                   
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 09/04Z.                                 
21                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER ON TSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY              
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW COOL TEMPERATURES              
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE A                     
CHALLENGE.                                                                      
AS OF 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ASPERMONT AND A COLD                
FRONT WAS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN OK.                
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                    
REGION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX DOWN INTO               
THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THE BETTER CHCS OF                    
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF MY FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO                
DEVELOP THERE IS ENUF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE...MAINLY IN THE                 
FORM OF HAIL/WINDS DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE GFS SUGGESTS                
THAT STORMS MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT                    
STALLS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SMALL CHCS OF STORMS ALONG AND                   
NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ INTERACTS                  
WITH IT.                                                                        
CHC OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING                 
WITH STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PER THE GFS.              
ANY OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE                
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SHEAR ALOFT.                                         
WHAT IS OF MOST INTEREST IS HOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES EVOLVE                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST                 
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WARM                 
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY OWING TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER                 
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING                 
UPPER JET. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO AROUND MY WESTERN BORDER                  
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOW              
SOME CAP BUT DEFINITELY BREAKABLE. SO THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT              
STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE                    
INTERSECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL BE IS                 
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT VERY WELL COULD BE CLOSE TO MY                         
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ASSUMING STORMS WILL INITIATE...MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND GREAT SHEAR FROM 0 TO 6              
KM WITH A CLASSIC VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. SO SUPERCELL STORMS              
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE IN THE                   
CARDS. THE BETTER RISK OF TORNADOES WILL NEAR THE SURFACE WARM                  
FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL AREAS TOWARD EVENING WITH ANY DISCREET                 
CELLS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND RESULTANT 0-1KM SHEAR.                   
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE A STRONG TORNADO OR              
TWO. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SQUALL LINE WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE              
RISK MAY THEN TRANSITION TO A HAIL/WIND THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.                
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY 12Z THURSDAY.                        
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH THE MAIN                    
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPS. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST                 
AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT UP              
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH              
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. OVER THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE               
GFS/ECMWF BRING A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING SOME                  
FAIRLY COOL CANADIAN AIR SOUTH INTO TEXAS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE POLAR FRONT. BASED ON THE                
LATEST 850MB PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF HIGHS AND LOWS WERE                       
LOWERED...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPS THAT WHAT IS              
IN THE GRIDS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE                
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.                                                    
LACY                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  53  76  61  78 /  30  50  60  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  59  84  62  81 /  20  40  60   0                                    
JUNCTION  64  79  65  86 /  30  20  40  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1155 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS               
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT A MUCH COLDER THAN WE WERE               
PREVIOUSLY THINKING. FOR EXAMPLE...WE WERE THINKING THE                         
TEMPERATURE WOULD BE AROUND 70 IN ABILENE BY NOON. AS OF 11                     
AM...THE TEMPERATURE THERE HAD FALLEN TO 58 DEGREES. ALSO...LOW                 
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING SOONER THAN WE WERE THINKING. THE LATEST RUC                
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THIS FRONT. DECIDED TO LOWER AFTERNOON              
HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY.                             
ALSO...ADJUSTED DEWPOINT...WIND...AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER               
OF TODAY TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.                  
LATEST ZONE AND POINT FORECAST MATRIX PRODUCTS REFLECT THESE                    
ADJUSTMENTS.                                                                    
23/HUBER                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS                  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA               
THROUGH 08/15Z...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. MVFR                
CIGS BKN020-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 08/18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN AND                 
EASTERN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS                 
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS               
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL                   
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 09/04Z.                                 
21                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER ON TSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY              
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW COOL TEMPERATURES              
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE A                     
CHALLENGE.                                                                      
AS OF 3 AM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ASPERMONT AND A COLD                
FRONT WAS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN OK.                
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                    
REGION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX DOWN INTO               
THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THE BETTER CHCS OF                    
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF MY FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO                
DEVELOP THERE IS ENUF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE...MAINLY IN THE                 
FORM OF HAIL/WINDS DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE GFS SUGGESTS                
THAT STORMS MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT                    
STALLS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SMALL CHCS OF STORMS ALONG AND                   
NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ INTERACTS                  
WITH IT.                                                                        
CHC OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING                 
WITH STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PER THE GFS.              
ANY OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE                
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SHEAR ALOFT.                                         
WHAT IS OF MOST INTEREST IS HOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES EVOLVE                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST                 
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WARM                 
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY OWING TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER                 
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING                 
UPPER JET. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TO AROUND MY WESTERN BORDER                  
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOW              
SOME CAP BUT DEFINITELY BREAKABLE. SO THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT              
STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE                    
INTERSECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL BE IS                 
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IT VERY WELL COULD BE CLOSE TO MY                         
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ASSUMING STORMS WILL INITIATE...MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND GREAT SHEAR FROM 0 TO 6              
KM WITH A CLASSIC VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. SO SUPERCELL STORMS              
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE IN THE                   
CARDS. THE BETTER RISK OF TORNADOES WILL NEAR THE SURFACE WARM                  
FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL AREAS TOWARD EVENING WITH ANY DISCREET                 
CELLS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND RESULTANT 0-1KM SHEAR.                   
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE A STRONG TORNADO OR              
TWO. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SQUALL LINE WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE              
RISK MAY THEN TRANSITION TO A HAIL/WIND THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.                
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY 12Z THURSDAY.                        
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH THE MAIN                    
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPS. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST                 
AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT UP              
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH              
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. OVER THE WEEKEND...BOTH THE               
GFS/ECMWF BRING A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING SOME                  
FAIRLY COOL CANADIAN AIR SOUTH INTO TEXAS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE POLAR FRONT. BASED ON THE                
LATEST 850MB PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF HIGHS AND LOWS WERE                       
LOWERED...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPS THAT WHAT IS              
IN THE GRIDS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE                
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.                                                    
LACY                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  77  53  76  61 /  20  30  50  60                                       
SAN ANGELO  83  59  84  62 /  10  20  40  60                                    
JUNCTION  84  64  79  65 /  10  30  20  40                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</pre> tx