AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
845 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE                
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY CAUSING RAIN...HEAVY              
AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE            
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE             
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. RAIN IS EXPECTED             
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET TONIGHT...LOWERING TO AROUND             
7000 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY AND WARMER                    
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF             
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE               
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW               
WAS NOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA                 
COASTS AT 8 PM MST. RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT                
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH A BAND OF MODERATED RAINFALL               
INTENSITY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EASTERN AND             
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES. THIS INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES OVER A LARGE             
AREA HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD               
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWED A                
BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST            
ARIZONA BY 09Z SATURDAY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO               
BECOME MORE DESTABILIZED LATER THIS EVENING AND PAST MIDNIGHT FOR A             
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS.                                  
THE SNOW LEVEL APPEARED TO BE HOVERING ABOVE 10000 FEET AT 8 PM MST             
AS AUTOMATED OBSERVATION SITES AT 8000 FEET AND 9000 FEET WERE STILL            
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS EXPECTED            
TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL LOWER BY SOME SATURDAY                 
MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER            
LOW. IF THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES ENOUGH...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE                  
CONVECTIVELY LOWERED WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AT                     
GENERALLY MOUNTAINTOP LEVELS TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER MORE            
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ENTERS            
THE STATE. THEREFORE...A SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM             
THIS EVENING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET             
IN EASTERN PIMA COUNTY TO 7000 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.                     
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS             
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...               
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT RATHER HIGH...ABOVE 9000 FEET.            
SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN LOWER TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW            
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY              
SATURDAY... LOWERING TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                   
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WHITES TONIGHT               
ABOVE 8000 FEET...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET                 
SATURDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT             
IN THE WHITE`S ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM WHEN THE COLDEST AIR               
SPILLS INTO THE REGION (LATTER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AND             
MAY EVEN HAVE TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY DEPENDING UPON THE STORMS             
SPEED AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION). IN THE MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING                     
TUCSON...WERE LOOKING AT A TOTAL OF 3-5 INCHES ABOVE 8000                       
FEET...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING ON SATURDAY.                   
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER CONVECTION COMES             
INTO PLAY.                                                                      
AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO              
SUNDAY AND RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...                
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH              
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...              
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL THEN COOL OFF LATE IN THE WEEK AS A                 
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM                
MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 3SM MOST AREAS              
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...VISIBILITIES               
WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL TO NEAR 1SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MIST.                 
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 2000-3000 FEET...OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO 1000                
FEET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY...WITH VSBYS GENERALLY                
GREATER THAN 6 SM AND CEILINGS 4000 FEET OR HIGHER. THE AVIATION                
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS ON TAP AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF               
BAJA CALIFORNIA SENDS COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST               
ARIZONA. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED DAILY RECORDS FOR                
NOVEMBER 30TH. BELOW IS A LISTING OF STATION RAINFALL RECORDS FOR               
TODAY.                                                                          
STATION         NOV. 30 RECORD                                                  
TUCSON           0.74" / 1982                                                   
AJO              0.34" / 1922                                                   
ORGAN PIPE       0.56" / 1962                                                   
KITT PEAK        1.12" / 2002                                                   
ORACLE           0.70" / 1991                                                   
PICACHO PEAK     1.20" / 2002                                                   
NOGALES          0.26" / 1985                                                   
DOUGLAS          0.55" / 1962                                                   
SIERRA VISTA     1.05" / 1902                                                   
WILLCOX          0.60" / 1921                                                   
TOMBSTONE        0.49" / 1962                                                   
BOWIE            0.35" / 1952                                                   
SAFFORD AG STN   0.29" / 1996                                                   
FORT THOMAS      0.49" / 1985                                                   
CLIFTON          0.70" / 1962                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY LATE THIS EVENING              
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR GRAHAM AND GREENLEE              
COUNTIES /AZZ019-030/ AND ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY               
/AZZ033/.                                                                       
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
827 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE OBS SUGGEST MODERATE TO HEAVY                    
PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO MOST MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN VALLEY               
ZONES AS OF 03Z...WITH VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (AROUND 10K FEET)              
KEEPING SNOW LIMITED TO MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES. QUICK LOOK               
AT NEW 00Z NAM SUGGESTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES/WRN VALLEYS IS              
MOSTLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES                 
MAY BE OVERDONE AS A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT BEFORE               
MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO               
SNOW. WILL KEEP CURRENT GROUP OF MOUNTAIN HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...BUT               
WILL SCALE BACK SNOW ACCUMS IN AREAS BELOW 10K FEET MSL. EASTERN                
PLAINS FORECAST MUCH LESS CLEAR-CUT...AS NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO NO               
PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALREADY UPDATED                
ONCE TO TRIM BACK POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MAY NEED TO CUT BACK                   
AGAIN IF NAM IS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT. WILL LET CURRENT ZR                  
ADVISORY RUN FOR NOW... BUT AM SERIOUSLY CONTEMPLATING DROPPING IT              
FOR ALL ZONES LATER THIS EVENING IF PRECIP IS SLOW TO DEVELOP.                  
PETERSEN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
..COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...                          
..FEET OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...                           
..WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO TONIGHT...                    
..STRONG/DAMAGE HIGH WIND THREAT SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY...                       
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED THE OPENING SUB-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CA BAJA             
MOVING EAST THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED                  
DIGGING TROUGH MOVING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. IN RETURN...VERY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WAS STREAMING ACROSS               
OLD MEXICO...THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO UT/CO. 12Z/30 OBS SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...AZ...NM...AND SOUTHWEST TX HAD PRECIPITABLE                
WATER INDICES OF 150-315 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS TIME OF               
THE YEAR...1.19 INCHES AT TUCSON...AZ. 700MB-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY            
VALUES ARE AROUND 5G/KG...WHICH IS A FAIRLY TROPICAL AIR MASS AND               
SOMETHING WE SEE AROUND HERE DURING THE SUMMER "MONSOON." GIVEN THE             
RELATIVELY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN               
FORMING ACROSS UT...WESTERN CO...AND NM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME                    
PERIODIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN PER SPOTTERS...OBS...AND              
LIVE WEBCAMS. WARM AIR ALOFT ALREADY BUILDING AS LA VETA PASS SENSOR            
STARTED IN THE 20S THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE             
30S DURING SOME PRECIPITATION. THE BOSQUE RAWS IN THE EAST SIDE THE             
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 8K FT MSL WAS IN THE                 
LOWER 50S...GOTTA LOVE CO COMPLEX TERRAIN. WE RECEIVED A SPOTTER                
REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW 5 ESE FORT GARLAND(8500 FEET MSL) AND              
THAT WAS IN ABOUT 6 HOURS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIVE                     
WEBCAMS(WOLF CREEK PASS...MONARCH PASS...SAN LUIS VALLEY) LOOK                  
RELATIVELY SNOWFALL-FREE. MEANWHILE...S51OW CP AIR MASS WAS ACROSS              
EASTERN CO INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
STRUGGLING TO WARM IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY AND MAY NOT MAKE IT             
INTO THE 30S AROUND LAMAR. SURFACE WINDS WERE ALREADY VEERING TO THE            
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD WITH DEW POINTS IN             
THE TEENS.                                                                      
FOR THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                      
SATURDAY...QUITE THE ARRAY OF WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF CO GIVEN THE               
VERY COMPLEX AND C51ENGING WEATHER PATTERN. GIVEN THE DEEP                      
MOISTURE FLUX COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT AND                       
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT FOR SOME FAVORED AREAS...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD                  
BECOME MORE STEADY SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND             
HIGH VALLEYS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUAN...LA GARITA...COLLEGIATE...            
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST             
SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 8K FT MSL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE                  
MOUNTAIN PEAKS/HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. 1-4 FEET STILL LOOKS DOABLE                
AROUND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.              
LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WENT AHEAD AND              
ADDED ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE               
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SAGUACHE COUNTY/LA GARITA MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE            
GUNNISON VALLEY AND THE REST OF LAKE COUNTY INCLUDING LEADVILLE.                
OTHER LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEY/HIGH VALLEYS LIKE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR             
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW...BUT BELOW ADVISORY VALUES.            
THE SNOW LIKELY ENDS FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET/PIKE PIKE                     
MOUNTAINS GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS                       
MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL TO SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP.                              
HOWEVER...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.                                                             
FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON               
THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY TOUGH CALL IN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.                 
STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES. IN            
RESPONSE TO THE CP AIR MASS POSSIBLY RECEDING EASTERN CO AND WARM               
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE THROUGH THE               
NIGHT. 295K/300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF                      
NM...EASTERN CO...AND ESPECIALLY KS/OK/TX. TOUGH TO TRULY SAY WHERE             
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AS ANY PRECIPITATION EVAPORATIVE OR              
DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP THE S51OW COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE                  
LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE WARM AIR BUILDS OVER EASTERN CO. IF             
THAT IS THE CASE...THEN THERE STILL COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 CORRIDOR AND NOT FOR               
THE RATON MESA OR PALMER DIVIDE GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NAM-WRF               
12KM SOUNDING FOR EADS HAS A FREEZING RAIN VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE.            
HOWEVER...IF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TROUBLES MATERIALIZING...OR                  
INCREASING IN INTENSITY...THEN THE WARM SOUTHERLY WIND COULD TAKE               
OVER. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CONSISTENTLY WARM              
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE            
UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS WHY I STUCK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF               
THERE IS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY TO                         
KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES...THEN IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS VIGOROUS                
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER TROP WINDS DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                
45-70KTS AROUND 800MB-700MB DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY.              
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IF THE SURFACE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN TIGHTEN LIKE THE GFS...BUT THE NAM-WRF IS A               
LITTLE WEAKER. SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE...PLAN TO GO AHEAD WITH A HIGH            
WIND WARNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS AND GOES WELL WITH ABQ/AMA              
WARNING. STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW MOS             
GUIDANCE WITH DEEP VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST-WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. STAYED               
THE COURSE GIVEN SURROUNDING OFFICES. ONE FINAL POTENTIAL IMPACT                
ISSUE IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE WINDY TO STRONG WIND                   
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. FUELS ARE AT CRITICAL                
LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE                    
READINGS...BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20                  
PERCENT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ALREADY OCCURRING...WILL             
FORGO THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. 17                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO               
IMPACT REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH                      
IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWFA FROM                  
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS                      
PROJECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FROM                
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                                     
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE PAINTED SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO                  
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 58/59/60/61/68 AND 75 ON SATURDAY               
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE                  
CONTINUED TO PAINT RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS OVER THE CWFA FROM                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.                                    
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE                
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS                  
THEN RETURNING AGAIN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY                  
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                                               
AVIATION...BASED ON THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE PREVIOUS                    
DISCUSSION LOOKS ON TARGET. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE               
THREE SITES FROM 00Z TO 02Z. KALS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND                
KCOS SOME LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 07Z. KPUB               
WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS FOR RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF A            
BRIEFLY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE            
NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS SATURDAY.                 
TLM/17                                                                          
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR COZ093>099.                                                                 
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST                        
SATURDAY FOR COZ084-085-095-096-098.                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ073-075.                                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR                      
COZ058-059.                                                                     
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ093>099.                
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST                        
SATURDAY FOR COZ084-085-095-096-098.                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ073-075.                                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST                
SATURDAY FOR COZ064.                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/28                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
221 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...                         
...FEET OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...                          
...WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO TONIGHT...                   
...STRONG/DAMAGE HIGH WIND THREAT SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY...                      
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED THE OPENING SUB-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CA BAJA             
MOVING EAST THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED                  
DIGGING TROUGH MOVING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. IN RETURN...VERY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WAS STREAMING ACROSS               
OLD MEXICO...THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO UT/CO. 12Z/30 OBS SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...AZ...NM...AND SOUTHWEST TX HAD PRECIPITABLE                
WATER INDICES OF 150-315 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS TIME OF               
THE YEAR...1.19 INCHES AT TUCSON...AZ. 700MB-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY            
VALUES ARE AROUND 5G/KG...WHICH IS A FAIRLY TROPICAL AIR MASS AND               
SOMETHING WE SEE AROUND HERE DURING THE SUMMER "MONSOON." GIVEN THE             
RELATIVELY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN               
FORMING ACROSS UT...WESTERN CO...AND NM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME                    
PERIODIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN PER SPOTTERS...OBS...AND              
LIVE WEBCAMS. WARM AIR ALOFT ALREADY BUILDING AS LA VETA PASS SENSOR            
STARTED IN THE 20S THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE             
30S DURING SOME PRECIPITATION. THE BOSQUE RAWS IN THE EAST SIDE THE             
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 8K FT MSL WAS IN THE                 
LOWER 50S...GOTTA LOVE CO COMPLEX TERRAIN. WE RECEIVED A SPOTTER                
REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW 5 ESE FORT GARLAND(8500 FEET MSL) AND              
THAT WAS IN ABOUT 6 HOURS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIVE                     
WEBCAMS(WOLF CREEK PASS...MONARCH PASS...SAN LUIS VALLEY) LOOK                  
RELATIVELY SNOWFALL-FREE. MEANWHILE...SHALLOW CP AIR MASS WAS ACROSS            
EASTERN CO INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
STRUGGLING TO WARM IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY AND MAY NOT MAKE IT             
INTO THE 30S AROUND LAMAR. SURFACE WINDS WERE ALREADY VEERING TO THE            
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD WITH DEW POINTS IN             
THE TEENS.                                                                      
FOR THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                      
SATURDAY...QUITE THE ARRAY OF WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF CO GIVEN THE               
VERY COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PATTERN. GIVEN THE DEEP                    
MOISTURE FLUX COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT AND                       
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT FOR SOME FAVORED AREAS...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD                  
BECOME MORE STEADY SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND             
HIGH VALLEYS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUAN...LA GARITA...COLLEGIATE...            
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST             
SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 8K FT MSL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE                  
MOUNTAIN PEAKS/HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. 1-4 FEET STILL LOOKS DOABLE                
AROUND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.              
LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WENT AHEAD AND              
ADDED ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE               
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SAGUACHE COUNTY/LA GARITA MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE            
GUNNISON VALLEY AND THE REST OF LAKE COUNTY INCLUDING LEADVILLE.                
OTHER LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEY/HIGH VALLEYS LIKE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR             
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW...BUT BELOW ADVISORY VALUES.            
THE SNOW LIKELY ENDS FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET/PIKE PIKE                     
MOUNTAINS GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS                       
MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL TO SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP.                              
HOWEVER...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.                                                             
FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON               
THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY TOUGH CALL IN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.                 
STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES. IN            
RESPONSE TO THE CP AIR MASS POSSIBLY RECEDING EASTERN CO AND WARM               
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE THROUGH THE               
NIGHT. 295K/300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF                      
NM...EASTERN CO...AND ESPECIALLY KS/OK/TX. TOUGH TO TRULY SAY WHERE             
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AS ANY PRECIPITATION EVAPORATIVE OR              
DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP THE SHALLOW COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE                
LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE WARM AIR BUILDS OVER EASTERN CO. IF             
THAT IS THE CASE...THEN THERE STILL COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 CORRIDOR AND NOT FOR               
THE RATON MESA OR PALMER DIVIDE GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NAM-WRF               
12KM SOUNDING FOR EADS HAS A FREEZING RAIN VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE.            
HOWEVER...IF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TROUBLES MATERIALIZING...OR                  
INCREASING IN INTENSITY...THEN THE WARM SOUTHERLY WIND COULD TAKE               
OVER. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CONSISTENTLY WARM              
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE            
UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS WHY I STUCK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF               
THERE IS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY TO                         
KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES...THEN IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS VIGOROUS                
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER TROP WINDS DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                
45-70KTS AROUND 800MB-700MB DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY.              
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IF THE SURFACE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN TIGHTEN LIKE THE GFS...BUT THE NAM-WRF IS A               
LITTLE WEAKER. SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE...PLAN TO GO AHEAD WITH A HIGH            
WIND WARNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS AND GOES WELL WITH ABQ/AMA              
WARNING. STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW MOS             
GUIDANCE WITH DEEP VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST-WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. STAYED               
THE COURSE GIVEN SURROUNDING OFFICES. ONE FINAL POTENTIAL IMPACT                
ISSUE IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE WINDY TO STRONG WIND                   
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. FUELS ARE AT CRITICAL                
LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE                    
READINGS...BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20                  
PERCENT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ALREADY OCCURRING...WILL             
FORGO THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. METZE                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO               
IMPACT REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH                      
IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWFA FROM                  
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS                      
PROJECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FROM                
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                                     
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE PAINTED SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO                  
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 58/59/60/61/68 AND 75 ON SATURDAY               
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE                  
CONTINUED TO PAINT RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS OVER THE CWFA FROM                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.                                    
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE                
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS                  
THEN RETURNING AGAIN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY                  
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE PREVIOUS                   
DISCUSSION LOOKS ON TARGET. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE               
THREE SITES FROM 00Z TO 02Z. KALS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND                
KCOS SOME LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 07Z. KPUB               
WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS FOR RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF A            
BRIEFLY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE            
NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS SATURDAY.                 
TLM/METZE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR COZ093>099.                                                                 
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST                        
SATURDAY FOR COZ084-085-095-096-098.                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ073-075.                                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
640 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION                    
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A VERY COLD AIR MASS TO SETTLE INTO THE                  
REGION FOR SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS             
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TONIGHT IN THE                
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON              
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES ON            
SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE REGION AS IT REFORMS OFF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE BY MONDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
ARCTIC FRONT (NUMBER 1) IS PROGRESSING NICELY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL            
NEW YORK WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 45KTS HAVE               
BEEN OBSERVED AT ROC WITH THE CONVECTION AND THIS IS A SIGN OF OUR              
FORECAST TONIGHT.  LATEST 18Z RUN OF THE WRF AND RUC SHOW FROPA                 
BETWEEN 00-03Z WITH THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW.  BASED ON MESOSCALE                
FEATURES...THINK MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS OF             
THE BURKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH              
SOME DOWNSLOPING AND BEST SUPPORT TRACKING NORTH.                               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL QUICKLY SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH                      
MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.  BUFKIT PROFILES FROM UCA              
AND SYR SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A BAND OF SNOW                 
DEVELOPING WITH TOP OF THE INVERSION NEAR 700MB!  WITH TEMPERATURES             
AT THIS LEVEL FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW -20C...WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME THUNDER.  WHILE ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC WITH QPF               
AMOUNTS...MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z NAM12 AND RUC POINTS TOWARD                
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR HERKIMER/FULTON AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY              
(UPSLOPE CONDITIONS).  THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME WILL BE 3-5 INCHES BUT             
COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IF BAND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A GOOD            
CONVECTIVE BURST.  FURTHERMORE...WIND FIELD WILL BE RATHER                      
IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAPING INTO 40KT WINDS.  THIS              
WOULD  RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...SO A COMBO OF               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED.                         
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT               
LOWS AROUND 20F OR COLDER AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES SOUTH BY             
SUNRISE SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                  
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER BEGINS ON DECEMBER 1 (AS OPPOSED TO                       
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WHICH IS NOT FOR THREE WEEKS). EITHER                       
WAY...DECEMBER WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE              
SEASON. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE TEMPS MIGHT GET ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE            
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND EVEN THERE IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. MOST                
OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 20S...EXCEPT TEENS TO THE NORTHWEST             
OF ALBANY.                                                                      
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY                   
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TO THE LOWEST READINGS SINCE EARLY             
LAST MARCH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS TO APPROACH ZERO IN THE               
ADIRONDACKS...AND CLOSE TO 10 EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS POUGHKEEPSIE.                
CLOUDS LOOK TO ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR SUNRISE SUNDAY. WITH A VERY              
COLD NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE CLOUDS...WE ARE ASSURED THE COLD AIR                 
INITIALLY WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE...AS A STORM...FORECAST TO BUILD              
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...APPROACHES OUR REGION.                                       
DESPITE THE COLD AIR MASS...THE GFS/NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS THUS FAR            
TAKE THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR                        
REGION...THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALL OF THESE MODELS DO              
SHOW A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC                 
MOVING NORTHEAST OFF OF LONG ISLAND CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE              
BY LATE MONDAY.                                                                 
THE GFS (SUPPORTED BY THE EUROPEAN) HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED                  
ABOUT AN INCH OR MORE QPF FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION AND WAS THE                     
PREFERRED MODEL TO USE.                                                         
THE 12Z GFS DID TREND A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE LAST RUN...WHICH HAS             
BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM IS STILL                  
SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES AWAY...AND WILL CONSIST OF THREE DISTINCT                
SHORT WAVES....ONE DIVING SOUTH OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST...ANOTHER               
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THE THIRD COMING OUT OF OLD MEXICO.              
IN THE NEXT DAY...THESE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MERGE INTO ONE LARGE              
STORM TRACKING ACROSS THE NATIONS HEARTLAND...NORTHWARD TO MICHIGAN.            
AT THAT POINT...THE STORM HITS A LOT OF COLD AIR...AND IS FORCED TO             
MAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS LOTS             
OF VORTICITY SPUN OFF FROM THE SYSTEM...FORM A NEW LOW PRESSURE OFF             
THE MID ATLANTIC.                                                               
WHILE IT IS TOO PREMATURE TO REALLY ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT PTYPES AND              
AMOUNTS AND EVEN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WE FEEL THAT THERE IS                
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH...IF             
NOT ALL OF OUR CWA...AND THEREFORE LAUNCHED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR            
THE ENTIRE AREA.                                                                
DRY AIR...STILL ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...MIGHT DRY              
OUT THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION THRUST OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH               
TIME...THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SOMETIME BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT               
THIS POINT...IT STILL LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW TO FALL.                
THEN...THE BRUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION                  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS WHEN THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR PTYPES TAKES            
PLACE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF ALBANY (WHERE OVER A            
FOOT COULD FALL)...AND MOSTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ALBANY.              
WE KEPT TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE ARE                    
CONCERNED THAT FOLKS TO OUR SOUTH COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT ICING                
EVENT.                                                                          
AS THE SECONDARY STORM GETS GOING ON MONDAY...COLD AIR WILL RETURN              
AT ALL LEVELS OF THE COLUMN...CHANGING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TO            
SNOW. THE GFS/NAM PRODUCE A TROAL OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...WHERE             
MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW COULD PERSIST. THE 18Z NAM HAD THIS                 
FEATURE CLOSE TO OUR REGION.                                                    
THE BOTTOM LINE...SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF             
MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER. AS THE FLOW TURNS NW AND QUITE                    
BRISKLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KICK AND IT             
COULD BE ROBUST INTO TUESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORM...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC            
AIR WILL COME PLUNGING ALONG WITH CONTINUED WIND. THE LAKE GUNS WILL            
BE GOING STRONG...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE FLOW BECOMES                
MORE ANTICYCLONIC...THEY WILL ABATE BY LATE. FROM THIS VANTAGE                  
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE              
CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND             
CATSKILLS.                                                                      
A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY BUT            
CONTINUED COLD DAY. THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF ANOTHER POTENT CLIPPER                
TYPE STORM WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH...AND POSSIBLY TAP INTO ATLANTIC              
OCEAN MOISTURE. THIS IS WHAT THE 12Z GFS FORECAST THIS SYSTEM TO DO.            
THE SECONDARY STORM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC                      
REGION...NORTHWARD TO OFF CAPE COD BY LATER THURSDAY. THIS COULD                
BRING A MODEST SNOWFALL (AT THE VERY LEAST) TO OUR PARTS LATE WED               
INTO THUR.                                                                      
AFTER THAT...MORE COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO COME ON THE HEELS OF THIS             
STORM VIA NW WINDS. THIS COULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW AND CERTAINLY A CONTINUATION OF BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES              
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY OVER THE MOHAWK                 
VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                  
AND SQUALLS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO                
WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING THE NIGHT WEST TO                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUST TO                    
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY FROM                    
ROME EAST TO ALBANY WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE A FUNNELING                     
EFFECT. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN AS ONE GOES WEST FROM                   
ALBANY TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE                      
ENCOUNTERED FROM TIME TO TIME IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH NEAR ZERO                    
VISIBILITY. THE ALBANY AREA MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF SNOW                     
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF LOWERING FLIGHT                    
CONDITIONS TO MVFR IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE SIMPLY INDICATED                  
VCSH IN THE ALBANY AND GLENS FALLS TAFS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT                   
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF KINGSTON DUE TO THE                      
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE CATSKILLS.                                            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE EXPERIENCED                    
WITH A QUICK SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TO                     
SOUTH WEST TO WEST 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET                      
ABOVE SEA LEVEL.                                                                
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY                 
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO FURTHER AVIATION WEATHER RELATED              
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                   
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...THE SEASON`S FIRST WINTER STORM IS                     
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH A WINTERY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...                 
AND RAIN.                                                                       
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT...VFR...LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.                                     
SUN...VFR DETERIORATING TO IFR BY LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO SNOW OR A              
WINTRY MIX.                                                                     
MON...IFR IMPROVING TO VFR. LINGERING AM SNOW/WINTRY MIX.                       
TUE...VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ISLD SHSN.                                         
WED...VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF SHSN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT                   
SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE WRN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY TONIGHT              
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIALLY A VARIETY OF PTYPES TO            
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THE GREATEST IMPACT LOOKS TO              
BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  TOTAL QPF FROM THE EVENT LOOKS            
TO BE A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER. SHOULD THE                       
PRECIPITATION FALL AS MAINLY LIQUID...AREAS THAT COULD BE                       
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER            
MOHAWK BASIN ABOVE LITTLE FALLS...INCLUDING THE WEST AND EAST CANADA            
CREEKS...AS WELL AS THE SCHOHARIE BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WOULD            
BE GREATLY REDUCED SHOULD MORE FROZEN PRECIPITATION OCCUR.                      
AFTER MONDAY...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.                                                    
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-                    
     082>084.                                                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS                  
     EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-082.                   
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.                                                    
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HWJIV                                                              
LONG TERM...HWJIV                                                               
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...BGM                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
845 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH CIRRUS SHIELD NOW IN THE SE               
PORTION OF AREA. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SEWD              
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GOMEX                   
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED                
FROM MID MS VALLEY TO TN THEN OVER TO NC AND ERN VA. N TO NE FLOW               
REGIME SEEN IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST                     
ATMOSPHERE UP TO 900 MB PER 00Z SOUNDING IS ALREADY RESULTING IN                
FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW REPORTS OF MVFR VIS RECEIVED MAINLY S OF                 
JAX AND E OF GNV WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. FOG                  
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS STRATO-CU OVER EXTREME S ZONES AND THINK BY IN               
LARGE PART THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING                 
OVER THIS AREA SHIFTS SWD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME LOW STRATUS                 
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS (MAINLY S OF GAINESVILLE) WHERE                 
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE MAINTAINED UP THROUGH ABOUT 500-1000 FT.                 
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WITH SOME OF THE THICKER                 
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT...BUT STILL APPEARS SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS                
WILL MOVING INTO NRN ZONES AS THEY SPILL OVER THE UPPER LEVEL                   
RIDGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT VSBYS 3-5 SM BR  WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS OF 3-7 KTS SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS                
MIXED ENOUGH...SO MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS                     
DEVELOPING. MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR LOW STRATUS WILL BE INLAND FL.            
HAVE INDICATED TEMPO IFR DUE TO CIGS AND BR AT GNV AND JAX AFTER                
09Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...HURRAY!  BUOY 41012 WAVES ARE BEING REPORTED ONCE AGAIN.              
NLY WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER             
OFFSHORE LEGS THIS EVENING WITH COMBINED SEAS 3-4 FT. BASED ON 00Z              
INITIALIZATION...NAM12 DOING BETTER AS IS RUC WITH SHORT-TERM WIND              
SURGE SO HAVE BLENDED IT MORE INTO THE FORECAST. SCA STILL EXPECTED             
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE AREA AND                
TROUGHING LINGERS OFFSHORE. NEARSHORE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KTS AT SAUF1            
AND EXPECT NLY SURGE WILL RAISE SCEC FOR THESE LEGS LATER TONIGHT SO            
WILL INCLUDE HEADLINE IN NEXT CWF PACKAGE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  45  70  48  76 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SSI  52  66  60  74 /  10  10  10  10                                           
JAX  52  71  56  79 /   0  10  10   0                                           
SGJ  58  72  62  77 /  10  10  10  10                                           
GNV  53  76  55  81 /   0   0   0   0                                           
OCF  56  78  56  81 /  10   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR             
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                    
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                   
     OFFSHORE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ENYEDI/WALKER                                                            
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
305 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED                
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. FLOW IS                 
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG ZONAL BELT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN                      
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AND INTO               
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS STRONG BELT OF                  
WESTERLIES IS RUNNING UNDERNEATH A WELL DEFINED POLAR VORTEX STILL              
SPINNING JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE            
TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS POLAR VORTEX. THE LATEST OF THESE              
SHORTWAVES TO EFFECT THE CONUS IS NOW MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST               
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT             
LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME WE SEE WEAKER ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST             
OVER-TOP OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GOMEX.                          
AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK "COLD FRONT" CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTHEAST              
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO            
DETERMINE THE FRONTS EXACT LOCATION AS IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THE               
SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HELPED TO SCOUR OUR            
THE LOWER CLOUDS FOR THE PAST EVENING WITH SKIES ACTUALLY GOING                 
MOSTLY CLEAR IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DRY AIR                   
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING LOW LEVELS RATHER MOIST. 00Z              
KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER A            
MUCH DRIER COLUMN ABOVE 900MB. COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FLOW...THIS IS            
A RECIPE FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT (GENERALLY EAST OF THE             
APALACHICOLA RIVER)...AND SURFACE OBS / 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY              
ARE SHOWING EXPANDING AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EARLY                   
MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPS SHOULD STAY                     
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MIDDLE 40S TO                
50S COMMON. THESE TEMPS SHOULD NOT FEEL THAT BAD WHEN COMPARED TO               
WHAT OTHER PARTS OF THE CONUS ARE SEEING THIS MORNING. FOR                      
EXAMPLE...THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH             
ARE CLOSER TO THE POLAR VORTEX DISCUSSED ABOVE ARE SEEING TEMPS                 
PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO...BRRR.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                             
PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE               
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HOLDS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER                 
WHILE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. SOME PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS/AND OR               
FOG WILL BE AROUND FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE                  
FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THIS STRATUS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN              
OFF WITH THE SUN STRENGTH GETTING CLOSE TO ITS ANNUAL MINIMUM.                  
HOWEVER...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE            
LATER MORNING HOUR AND ALL FOR THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS STILL                  
RATHER WARM AND EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE               
CLIMO WITH GENERALLY LOWER 70S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S                    
SOUTH.                                                                          
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH FROM THE GULF OF                  
MEXICO TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT...                 
HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS STILL FAIRLY WARM...RADIATIONAL COOLING                
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH SO MUCH. DID GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES             
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS BUT THIS ONLY BRINGS                
TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT ABOUT CLIMO WITH MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S            
TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.                                                        
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE AND                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND THE COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM.                 
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IS              
LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE            
70S WITH A FEW WARMER PLACES OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND FLIRTING                 
WITH THE UPPER 70S. WINDS BEGINNING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL             
SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS              
REASON...LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM WAKULLA COUNTY WESTWARD                 
THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ARE FORECAST TO STAY A BIT COOLER.                
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S TOWARD THE              
MIDDAY HOUR...BUT THEN FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AS WINDS PASS               
OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO                
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER              
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER WIND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE              
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM              
FRANKLIN COUNTY WESTWARD MAY HAVE A HARD TIME EVEN FALLING BELOW                
60F. COOLEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND                  
ACROSS INLAND SECTION OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA              
WHERE THE LEAST INFLUENCE FROM THE GOMEX WILL BE FELT.                          
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA            
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WILL NOT FEEL LIKE EARLY DECEMBER ON            
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE               
60S MOST PLACES. A FEW WARMER SPOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND MAY             
EVEN TOUCH 80F. RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND AT              
THIS TIME THESE SEEM SAFE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...             
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. SREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DURING THE DAY...BUT            
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE FOR QPF FOR ALL            
AREA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN SHORTWAVE              
ENERGY AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NIGHT SO               
WILL BE FORECASTING A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR OUR AREA.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...                                                   
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BREAKDOWN OF THE                
500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH              
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY BOTH HAVE A             
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY                  
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION. THE RAIN            
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LOSING A LOT OF ITS DEEP                
LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-G FORCING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR                 
AREA...AND THE POPS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE             
HIGHER POP AROUND DOTHAN AND THE LOWER POP AROUND CROSS CITY. THE               
GFS MOS IS BEGINNING TO LOCK ON TO A COLDER SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA               
TUESDAY MORNING...AS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS               
FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE             
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...AS WELL AS THE SURFACE WINDS GOING NEAR CALM            
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA ALONG THE                
GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW              
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. LATER NEXT WEEK THE MODELS             
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE              
ECMWF BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH (AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE/QPF)                  
THROUGH OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS DEEP LAYER RIDGING. WILL               
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR             
OUT IS QUITE HIGH.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 2.5K AND 3.5K FT...JUST               
EAST OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE APALACHICOLA/CHATAHOOCHEE            
RIVER. THIS FAIRLY NARROW CLOUD BAND HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST            
AND HAS BEEN INHIBITING DENSE FOG FORMATION IN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE             
BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WE THINK THE VIS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO               
IFR OR EVEN VLIFR LEVELS WHEN (IF) THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK             
CLEARS THE REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR                   
KPFN...KDHN...AND KABY SINCE THESE SITES ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AND               
WILL EXPERIENCE WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION. VIS/CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID            
TO LATE MORNING AT KVLD AND KTLH...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS            
WILL GENERALLY BE 6 KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NNE.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL              
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE            
FORECAST WATERS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS                
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY                   
TONIGHT...DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS AND                
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR CAUTIONARY                 
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN             
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN             
APPROCHING FRONT. THE FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY             
MORNING AND AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO HAVE A RATHER STRONG SURGE OF                 
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE              
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO CONTROL OUR               
WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE                    
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES               
EAST. DESPITE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO              
MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL                   
LEVELS. MAY SEE RH VALUES TOUCH 35 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR THIS                     
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...                 
HOWEVER CRITICAL DURATIONS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED. A                     
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY                
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT            
OR EARLY MONDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THIS              
TIME. FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY OR                
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH BEHIND THIS NEXT                
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  74  46  74  53  77 /   0   0   0  10  05                           
PANAMA CITY  72  49  72  59  75 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
DOTHAN       71  46  72  53  75 /   0   0   0  10  20                           
ALBANY       72  44  73  51  76 /   0   0   0  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     73  46  74  50  78 /   0   0   0  10   0                           
CROSS CITY   76  52  77  51  79 /   0   0   0  10   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/LONG TERM...FOURNIER                                                   
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
240 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE CONUS DOMINATED BY              
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. STARTING IN THE EAST WE SEE WEAK RIDGING FROM             
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS RIDGING IS                  
EXITING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING EXITS THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGHING            
IS ANCHORED BY A FAIRLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX SPINNING JUST TO THE                
WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA. FINALLY FOR THE CONUS WE SEE ANOTHER IN A             
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING RAPIDLY ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC             
NORTHWEST COAST. THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW SEEN 24 HOURS AGO OFF THE                 
BAJA COAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN POSITION AND CONTINUES TO PROPEL               
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF            
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.                                            
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS WEAKENING AND                
PUSHING EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MIDDLE                 
SECTION OF THE COUNTY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM THE                
WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI                   
VALLEY. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND IS NOW ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH THE                   
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.                      
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON EASTERLY              
FLOW DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. THIS LOW LEVEL (950MB-850MB)                  
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH VERY DRY MID-LEVELS (>800MB) PER 00Z KTLH                   
SOUNDING IS A GOOD SETUP FOR CONTINUED LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA              
AND WILL HOLD THESE LOWER CLOUDS (GENERALLY MVFR) FOR ALL AVIATION              
TERMINALS INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.                          
REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE FROM                    
APALACHEE BAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA.               
THESE SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING             
WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS (15-30MB) AROUND THE               
300K SURFACE.  BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT                   
EXITING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL END POPS/SHOWERS FROM WEST            
TO EAST OVER THE BIG BEND THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                             
WILL BE WAITING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON               
HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE FAN FARE OTHER THAN             
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLUMN ABOVE AROUND 800MB IS               
EXTREMELY DRY AND WILL HOLD BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY QPF. THE                 
FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS             
RESULTING IN THE STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS                  
MENTIONED ABOVE THE FRONT IS A BIT DELAYED FROM EARLY THINKING AND              
CLOUDS WILL BE HOLDING AROUND LONGER TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE                 
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING MAY HOLD               
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. EXPECTING ANY LINGERING                      
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND (DISCUSSED IN THE                   
SYNOPSIS) TO END DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT               
DYNAMICS PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN.                                                  
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE RATHER TRICKY TODAY WITH THE SLOWLY                
DEPARTING LOWER CLOUDS. CERTAINLY SHOULD SEE THE SUN BREAKING OUT               
ACROSS THE WEST...BUT DO THINK WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS               
FOR THE EAST AS WELL. WITH ANY SUN THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE             
FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE                 
AREA.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BUILD             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME             
ZONAL IN NATURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE             
NORTHERLY FLOW THE AIRMASS IS REALLY NOT THAT COLD AND WILL RESULT              
IN LOW TEMPS GENERALLY NOT THAT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE                   
NOVEMBER (IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE) WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S                 
ACROSS ARE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER               
THE SOUTH.                                                                      
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY BUT IS REPLACES RAPIDLY BY YET               
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING               
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX BY LATE             
IN THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE                    
UPPER RIDGING BECOMING EVEN STRONGER. THE RESULT WILL THE FAIR                  
WEATHER AND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER AND            
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. ON FRIDAY...WILL BE EXPECTING LOWER 70S FOR              
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ADDED              
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES TO FRIDAY`S TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER              
WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12-15C                       
RANGE...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THESE FORECAST NUMBERS TO BE A               
FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY WHEN IT               
COMES TO TEMPS...FIRST WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MIXING WE WILL SEE WITH            
THE SURFACE RIDGE IN FIRM CONTROL. WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL GO WITH               
LESS MIXING RESULTING IN THE COOLER FORECAST TEMPS OF LOWER AND                 
MIDDLE 70S. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IF THE DAYTIME MIXING IS                         
UNDER-ESTIMATED THEN MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE                     
QUESTION. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE               
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY...LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST FOR THE              
AFTERNOON. IF THIS VEERING OF THE WINDS HAPPENS FAST ENOUGH...THE               
FLOW WILL BE COMING OVER THE NOW COOLER SHELF WATERS WHICH ARE IN               
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN THEN COASTAL                   
LOCATIONS FROM WAKULLA COUNTY WESTWARD WOULD LIKELY HIT THEIR HIGH              
TEMPS AROUND NOON AND THEN SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR              
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...                                                 
THE 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE                 
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH MODELS                 
REPLACE THE EASTERN CONUS 500 MB RIDGE (SUNDAY) WITH A LONG WAVE                
TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10                
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH A 591 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH             
FL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA             
MONDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FRONTAL                  
POSITIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 12 UTC MONDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW A               
WEAKENING BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS                 
TYPICAL WITH SUCH A SYSTEM. GFS MOS POPS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 20-40            
PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WE WILL               
LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW SINCE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE               
WILL IMPACT THE RAIN FORECAST (AS TO WHETHER IT OCCURS BEFORE OR                
AFTER 12 UTC MONDAY). COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND                  
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR               
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND             
REGIONS. EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT                   
COLD...THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY BY TUESDAY                  
MORNING. THIS...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE            
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.            
WE PLAN TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER GFS BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THAN            
THE WARMER GFS MOS...WHICH IS STILL HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY                       
CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW                   
AVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL                       
DIFFERENCES ARISE THURSDAY AS THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS A FAIRLY                 
POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TX...WHILE THE ECMWF            
COMPLETELY MISSES THIS FEATURE AND JUST HAS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE                 
CONUS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD CIGS (2.5K TO 4K FT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT             
HOURS. THE LATEST GFS MOS HAS BACKED OFF ON A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG              
EVENT...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARMING EFFECTS OF THE STRATOCU             
FIELD AND THE FACT THAT EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE RARELY                
ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA. MOS IS STILL GOING FOR A                
PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WE THINK THIS TOO            
IS UNLIKELY BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE. IF             
ANY LIFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR AT KVLD. MVFR CIGS            
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING AT KPFN AND                     
KDHN...BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KTLH AND KABY...AND BY MID TO LATE                 
AFTERNOON AT KVLD. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 5 KT THROUGH THE DAY.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE                  
WATERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE MORE             
THAN A WIND SHIFT FORM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF                
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WILL             
STAY WITH WINDS JUST BELOW THIS LEVEL AND LEAVE OUT HEADLINE                    
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BUILD            
BACK OVER THE WATER TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD               
AND BE REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD CONTROL             
OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.             
THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO IT WITH LIMITED DRY AIR AND              
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO              
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN               
WITH THE WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS...THE LACK OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS              
EXPECTED TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL              
LEVELS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE RH VALUES APPROACH 35              
PERCENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY            
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL               
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW                   
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO                 
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  72  49  73  48  74 /  15   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  72  50  71  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       70  45  70  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       70  45  70  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     72  49  73  48  73 /  20   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   76  52  76  51  75 /  30  05   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/LONG TERM...FOURNIER                                                   
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
100 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.           
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER         
MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS CROSSING THE               
UPSTATE INTO THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS                   
LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALLOWING CLOUDS                
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE COAST. MODELS             
INDICATING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE                     
EASTERN THIRD OF THE SC. ONLY EXPECT PASSING CLOUDS ACROSS THE                  
WESTERN MIDLANDS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. H850               
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING...SO CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO                
CLEAR IN THE EAST. LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE               
THE FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. 00Z NAM AND RUC                     
DEVELOPING A LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT FOR MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER.                                                                          
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S                   
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT COOLEST TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WILL BE               
WEST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S EAST. HAVE ADJUST CLOUD COVER                 
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES EXTENDING                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS A LITTLE                   
COOLER FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...SO SLIGHTLY                  
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED. 500MB HEIGHTS RISING DURING THE DAY                      
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE                   
PLAINS...SO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON. MODEL T-SECTIONS SUGGEST INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL                
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION              
SUNDAY. GFS APPEARS SIMILAR TO ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH                     
REGARDS TO TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY. BEST LIFT AND                
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE              
CHANCE THEN DECREASING THREAT MONDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION                
BEHIND FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH                 
MID TO LATE WEEK.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR                     
POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT OGB/AGS. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE               
COAST HAVE EXPANDED WESTWARD AND INTO OGB...WHICH SHOULD WARM                   
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH THE SLIGHT WARMING WILL EXPECT               
THE FOG VSBYS TO INCREASE FROM IFR TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR                
TWO. THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS AGS...WHERE FOR HAS ALSO                    
DEVELOPED. WITH LOW CLOUDS NOT ADVANCING AS FAR AS AGS OVERNIGHT                
BELIEVE THE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR FROM 06Z THROUGH 10Z.                  
REMAINING FOG AT AGS/OGB WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH REMAINDER OF                 
TAF PERIOD VFR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10                   
KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.                                                       
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...OTHERWISE...NO               
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION THROUGH TUESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
428 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON                                              
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION.               
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CLEARED THE FA AND                   
VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH STAGGERING NEGATIVE THETA-E              
ADVECTION IS ONGOING PER ADVANCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LAKE EFFECT               
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.                           
HOWEVER...EXTREMELY DRY AIR FROM THE ADVECTING CP AIRMASS IS                    
LIMITING THIS PROCESS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF FALLING               
INTO THE 20S NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 40S STILL PRESENT OVER THE SE.                
FARTHER UPSTREAM....DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS            
BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN CA. PHASING BETWEEN THIS               
SYSTEM AND THE WEST BAJA UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE VAST LARGE SCALE             
ASCENT AS THESE SYSTEMS EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY                            
TOMORROW...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE             
CENTRAL US.                                                                     
TONIGHT...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE              
REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH                      
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN PLACE/LIGHT WINDS/AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE              
INCREASING CIRRUS SHIELD PER HEIGHT RISES...EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT              
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
IF A FEW ARES IN THE NORTHEAST DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.                     
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS INDICATES ADVECTING AIR MASS HAS ALREADY                    
PRODUCED LOWS BELOW ZERO UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS EVEN WHERE SNOW WAS          
ABSENT.                                                                         
SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW                   
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS...FORCING THETA-E ADVECTION. VERY              
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST MODELS                   
INDICATE A DEWPOINT OF -40C AT H85 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE              
PER ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO FURTHER DRY THIS LAYER INTO             
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECWMF/AND GEM ALL INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP                
MOVING INTO REGION PER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/THETA-E ADVECTION. NAM/WRF            
CONFINES ALL PRECIP WEST OF THE FA. IN EXAMINING NMM AND RUC 13 SIM             
REFLECTIVITY...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY IS WEAK AND                  
HIGHEST RETURNS ARE NW OF THE FA. GIVEN STAGGERING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR            
IN PLACE AND ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING DRY SUBCLOUD AIR...HAVE             
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE NAM/WRF SOLUTION AS IT IS THE SLOWEST TO                 
ERODE THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE               
GIVEN MAIN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE               
WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE PLAIN STATES UNTIL THE EVENING.                
HENCE...FORCING AND ANY SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK THROUGH              
THE PERIOD. HAVE DROPPED POPS TO LIKELY NW...WITH CHANCE EVERY ELSE.            
BEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL RESIDE IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE                   
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...THINKING ANY PRECIP WILL BE            
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF ASCENT. RETAINED SNOW                 
SLEET MENTION NORTH...WITH RAIN/ZR/SLEET IN THE SOUTH PER TOP DOWN              
ANALYSIS. WITH ANTICIPATED LOW IMPACT AFTERNOON PRECIP...HAVE MOVED             
WATCH TO 00Z PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SHRTWV DIGGING SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST THIS AFTN. IN RESPONSE,                   
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WAS OPENING UP AND LIFTING NE.                       
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS STREAMING NORTHWARD             
ACROSS MEXICO INTO SWRN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. GULF                    
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE TAPPED AS SFC SYSTEM MOVES INTO PLAINS ON               
SAT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM                 
KS/NEB SAT EVE TO NRN LWR MI SUN EVE. STRONG WARM FRONT SE OF TRACK             
OF SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SAT NGT AND SUN MORNING.            
WARM/MOIST AIR BEING LIFTED OVER THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN                     
WIDESPREAD PCPN SAT NGT. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE... APPEARS WILL BE COLD             
ENOUGH ALOFT AND DRY ENOUGH IN LOW LEVELS FOR ONSET TO BE MAINLY                
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. STRONG WAA BETWEEN 5K-10K FT                  
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE THE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET               
MIX. GENERALLY FOLLOWED NAM QPF FIELDS WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR             
A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP SAT NGT. ALSO SLOPED FGEN FORCING              
FCST CONSISTENTLY BY MODELS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER BANDS AS                 
STRONG WAA ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER INCH OF             
GLAZE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO LEAVE WATCH UP FOR SAT NGT ACROSS             
NRN CWA AND EARLY SUNDAY NE.                                                    
AS LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WAA WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THIS               
AREA WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV NORTH              
WHERE MELTING ICE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHILE GENERALLY SPLIT                
MAV/MET DIFFERENCE ACROSS SOUTH. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC             
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVE. LAST                  
COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN INDICATING WK INSTABILITY                      
DEVELOPING OVER SRN PORTIONS OF CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW            
CONTD WITH SHOWERS BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING TSTMS TO THIS                
AREA IF MODELS PERSIST WITH THIS SOLUTION. WRAP AROUND AND LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO MON NGT.                                 
CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUE AFTN/NIGHT WITH SOME                
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WED NGT. RIDGING               
EXPECTED TO END THIS ACTIVITY THU, BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV AND WAA ON                
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY SPREAD SOME RN/SN INTO THE AREA ON FRI.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS              
ACROSS THE FA. LOOK FOR A FEW MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO LAKE PROCESSES. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL                  
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LOOK               
FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW                 
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAIN                     
STATES. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH                
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING            
     FOR INZ006-007.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR INZ003>005-008-009.                                              
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING            
     FOR MIZ079>081.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR MIZ077-078.                                                      
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING            
     FOR OHZ001-002.                                                            
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
545 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION...                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
19Z SFC ANLYS INDICATED 1035 MB HIGH OVER NW IOWA WITH BROADER                  
EXTENT OF SURFACE HIGH INTO KANSAS AND MO. COLD AIR AT 850 HAS                  
PUSHED SOUTH OF IOWA INTO MO AND KS AS WELL...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR              
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS HIGH RETREATS EAST OF THE AREA                        
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH               
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 06Z. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE             
PLACED LOW TEMPS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVER              
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A LIGHT SNOWFIELD NOW EXITS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 9             
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
AS TEMPS WARM IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING...SO WILL AN INCREASE IN               
CLOUDS FROM ADVANCING SYSTEM AND A SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY WIND                   
COMPONENT. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO THE NW OF                
THE AREA...HOWEVER QUITE RELATIVE AND STILL THINK SOME RADIATIONAL              
COOLING WILL WIN OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE                
BASICALLY USED AND ADJUSTED RUC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WAA ADVECTION             
IN THE MID AND LOWER LAYERS WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BY THE END             
OF TONIGHT SO HAVE 20 PERCENT CHCS OF PCPN THROUGH ABOUT A DNS-LWD              
LINE THROUGH 9 AM WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES            
BY 12Z (6AM) SATURDAY. INITIAL PCPN BURST WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET.               
SITUATION LOOKS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY SAT MORNING.  MODELS IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH FORCING AND QPF...BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE DETAILS              
ARE MOST PROBLEMATIC AND UNFORTUNATELY THE KEY TO THE FORECAST.                 
ALTHOUGH 18Z RUN HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT...12Z NAM WAS ON COOL END OF               
THERMAL ENVELOPE AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.  CONSIDERING THE                   
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE WITH               
FREEZING RAIN...FEEL THE NAM IS TOO COOL AND NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH              
WITH PRESSURE FALLS INTO MO VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT DEPICTED IN             
THE FORECAST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE             
CONVECTION EITHER WHOSE LATENT HEAT WOULD CAUSE SIMILAR WARMER                  
RESULTS.  WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED 09Z               
SREF SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND GFS FORCING WHICH SEEMED TO BE A NICE              
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOL NAM AND CONTINUALLY WARM END ECMWF.                 
MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE STRONG COOLING WHICH WE HAVE IN PLACE            
NOW...AND ALSO STRONG WAA SO WARMER END OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL              
HAVE TO BE WATCHED DURING TRANSITION.                                           
IN MORE DETAIL...FORCING REALLY INCREASES SAT MORNING AS SWRN TROUGH            
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  EARLY ON UVM IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY               
THERMODYNAMICS WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND                     
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON BACK EDGE.  THIS SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN              
290-300K ISENT LAYER WITH PROLONGED AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT AND UVM.  KINEMATIC FORCING ALSO INCREASES AROUND 00Z WHEN            
PARENT SHRT WV LIFTS THROUGH.  THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN INTO AN                
EXTREME ICE STORM EVENT IN THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH QPF                   
AMOUNTS HOVERING AROUND AN INCH...AND THIS MAKES SENSE WITH PWS                 
PUSHING RECORD VALUES.  THE PCPN WILL SWITCH TO RAIN SOUTH AND                  
HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE A PROLONGED EVENT THERE.                                    
HAVE SWITCHED WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH WHERE SNOW WILL               
FALL INITIALLY...CAPPED WITH SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN                
ACCUMS.  WITH SURGE OF WARM LAYER AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW                       
RATIOS...SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG BUT MAY DROP 1-5 INCH            
SNOWS WITH MAX ALONG MN BORDER.  CENTRAL AND SOUTH CLIPPED LENGTH OF            
HEADLINE SWITCHING TO ICE STORM WARNING WHERE PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE             
LIQUID BEFORE TEMPS APPROACH OR EXCEED FREEZING.  ALTHOUGH                      
APPRECIABLE PCPN MAY NOT FALL IN NRN PORTIONS AFTER 03Z...EVEN LIGHT            
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND                     
ACCUMULATE SO HAVE KEEP WARNING TIL 12Z.                                        
AFTER THE STORM DEPARTS...WENT AT OR BELOW THE COOLEST END OF                   
GUIDANCE.  MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ACCURATELY DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF              
COLD AIR BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS AND THAT DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO                  
ACCOUNT THE SNOW AND ICE THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE GROUND.                     
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                           
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRUSH NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.            
SOME FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR              
AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF WITH               
THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.            
WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR NOW. THE GFS BRINGS               
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH ACROSS IOWA LATE THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS               
THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE               
ANY ADDITIONAL POPS AT THIS TIME.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...1/00Z                                                               
VFR EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AT            
00Z.  SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT RAPID              
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS IA AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE PERIOD.  SNOW...IP AND FREEZING RAIN IN FORECAST AFTER 14Z.                 
SURFACE TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE PCPN OVER THE RA BY 18Z IN              
THE SOUTH.  AS AMS SATURATES...EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE              
DAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND               
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 PLUS TAMA COUNTY 12Z SAT-12Z SUN.  ICE STORM                
WARNING 12Z-21Z SAT REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDR/BSS/RPK/JJ                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
353 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
19Z SFC ANLYS INDICATED 1035 MB HIGH OVER NW IOWA WITH BROADER                  
EXTENT OF SURFACE HIGH INTO KANSAS AND MO. COLD AIR AT 850 HAS                  
PUSHED SOUTH OF IOWA INTO MO AND KS AS WELL...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR              
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS HIGH RETREATS EAST OF THE AREA                        
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH               
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 06Z. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE             
PLACED LOW TEMPS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVER              
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A LIGHT SNOWFIELD NOW EXITS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 9             
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
AS TEMPS WARM IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING...SO WILL AN INCREASE IN               
CLOUDS FROM ADVANCING SYSTEM AND A SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY WIND                   
COMPONENT. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO THE NW OF                
THE AREA...HOWEVER QUITE RELATIVE AND STILL THINK SOME RADIATIONAL              
COOLING WILL WIN OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE                
BASICALLY USED AND ADJUSTED RUC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WAA ADVECTION             
IN THE MID AND LOWER LAYERS WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BY THE END             
OF TONIGHT SO HAVE 20 PERCENT CHCS OF PCPN THROUGH ABOUT A DNS-LWD              
LINE THROUGH 9 AM WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES            
BY 12Z (6AM) SATURDAY. INITIAL PCPN BURST WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET.               
SITUATION LOOKS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY SAT MORNING.  MODELS IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH FORCING AND QPF...BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE DETAILS              
ARE MOST PROBLEMATIC AND UNFORTUNATELY THE KEY TO THE FORECAST.                 
ALTHOUGH 18Z RUN HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT...12Z NAM WAS ON COOL END OF               
THERMAL ENVELOPE AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.  CONSIDERING THE                   
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE WITH               
FREEZING RAIN...FEEL THE NAM IS TOO COOL AND NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH              
WITH PRESSURE FALLS INTO MO VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT DEPICTED IN             
THE FORECAST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE             
CONVECTION EITHER WHOSE LATENT HEAT WOULD CAUSE SIMILAR WARMER                  
RESULTS.  WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED 09Z               
SREF SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND GFS FORCING WHICH SEEMED TO BE A NICE              
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOL NAM AND CONTINUALLY WARM END ECMWF.                 
MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE STRONG COOLING WHICH WE HAVE IN PLACE            
NOW...AND ALSO STRONG WAA SO WARMER END OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL              
HAVE TO BE WATCHED DURING TRANSITION.                                           
IN MORE DETAIL...FORCING REALLY INCREASES SAT MORNING AS SWRN TROUGH            
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  EARLY ON UVM IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY               
THERMODYNAMICS WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND                     
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON BACK EDGE.  THIS SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN              
290-300K ISENT LAYER WITH PROLONGED AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT AND UVM.  KINEMATIC FORCING ALSO INCREASES AROUND 00Z WHEN            
PARENT SHRT WV LIFTS THROUGH.  THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN INTO AN                
EXTREME ICE STORM EVENT IN THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH QPF                   
AMOUNTS HOVERING AROUND AN INCH...AND THIS MAKES SENSE WITH PWS                 
PUSHING RECORD VALUES.  THE PCPN WILL SWITCH TO RAIN SOUTH AND                  
HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE A PROLONGED EVENT THERE.                                    
HAVE SWITCHED WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH WHERE SNOW WILL               
FALL INITIALLY...CAPPED WITH SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN                
ACCUMS.  WITH SURGE OF WARM LAYER AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW                       
RATIOS...SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG BUT MAY DROP 1-5 INCH            
SNOWS WITH MAX ALONG MN BORDER.  CENTRAL AND SOUTH CLIPPED LENGTH OF            
HEADLINE SWITCHING TO ICE STORM WARNING WHERE PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE             
LIQUID BEFORE TEMPS APPROACH OR EXCEED FREEZING.  ALTHOUGH                      
APPRECIABLE PCPN MAY NOT FALL IN NRN PORTIONS AFTER 03Z...EVEN LIGHT            
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND                     
ACCUMULATE SO HAVE KEEP WARNING TIL 12Z.                                        
AFTER THE STORM DEPARTS...WENT AT OR BELOW THE COOLEST END OF                   
GUIDANCE.  MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ACCURATELY DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF              
COLD AIR BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS AND THAT DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO                  
ACCOUNT THE SNOW AND ICE THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE GROUND.                     
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                           
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRUSH NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.            
SOME FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR              
AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF WITH               
THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.            
WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR NOW. THE GFS BRINGS               
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH ACROSS IOWA LATE THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS               
THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE               
ANY ADDITIONAL POPS AT THIS TIME.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...30/18Z                                                              
LITTLE CHANGE IN EARLY PERIODS OF TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH IFR                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. HOWEVER...WITH WINTER                 
STORM BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VSBYS AT            
MOST SITES BY THE 15-18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS SURGE OF MOISTURE                
WILL BE QUITE INTENSE SATURDAY AM. DIAGNOSTICS POINT TOWARD GOOD                
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AS WELL AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD...AFTER A             
ROUND OF SNOW/SLEET.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND               
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 PLUS TAMA COUNTY 12Z SAT-12Z SUN.  ICE STORM                
WARNING 12Z-21Z SAT REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDR/BSS/RPK                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
855 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL ICE STORM CONTINUES TO BE SFC TEMPS. EXCEPT              
FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN              
BELOW FREEZING WITH DRY AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/                    
CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. WITH AN AC DECK MOVING IN                
NOW...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPS WILL DROP OFF AS THEY HAVE PREVIOUS               
NIGHTS...AND SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY STEADY OR FALL ONLY A COUPLE                
DEGREES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR                         
ADVECTION...HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK THE PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN                 
FALLING AROUND 09Z AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT GET STRONG ENOUGH             
TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND              
RUC SHOW THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO              
BE ACROSS THE NORTH WERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING LONGER.               
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z WILL FORCE TEMPS            
TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WITH LESS TIME FOR               
FZRA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE BELOW             
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE                
I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...CURRENT                   
HAZARDS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY                   
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING. THE ONE THING TO LOOK OUT               
FOR WOULD BE IF PRECIP STARTED MUCH BEFORE 09Z. THEN THE WINDOW FOR             
FZRA WOULD BE A LITTLE LARGER AND ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE HIGHER                 
FURTHER SOUTH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
WOLTERS                                                                         
.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM CST/...                                                
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CENTERS ON THE IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM            
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                       
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST BEING                    
ABSORBED BY THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUB TROPICAL             
MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE                
FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THIS               
MORNING AND WAS LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES              
WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 DEGREES OR            
SO. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF                         
KANSAS...MISSOURI AND NEBRASKA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WITH              
PATCHES OF CIRRUS THROUGH MID EVENING COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP               
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND BELOW FREEZING                   
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM AND               
ARE VIGOROUS IN SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. 18Z NAM HAS                
COME IN A BIT COOLER THAN THE 12Z RUN...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO             
WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS.                                                         
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP THIS EVENING            
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KTS BY 06Z AND CONTINUES              
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL             
MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHRINK               
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS EVENING REACHING SATURATION NEAR OR SHORTLY             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH               
HIGHER GUSTS CREATING A HAZARDOUS SITUATION. THIS PATTERN WILL                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE              
NEBRASKA BORDER SO HAVE EXTENDED  THE ICE STORM WARNING TO END AT               
NOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER NEAR THE BORDER.                     
INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF ICING NEAR THE BORDER TO BE BETWEEN A                   
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA LOOKING             
AT AMOUNTS AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RETURN OF WARM             
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO THE ICE                 
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. CURRENTLY THINKING AMOUNTS THERE WILL              
BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE                
THEY WILL RISE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND MELT            
THE ICE ALONG WITH A GOOD SOAKING RAIN. INCREASED QPF SATURDAY                  
MORNING ALONG THE LINES OF HPC WITH SOME TWEAKS. THE MOISTURE EXITS             
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE BEST LIFT ACROSS THE               
FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES INTO CENTRAL IOWA.                                       
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY              
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE            
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AROUND MID DAY SUNDAY ENDING                 
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME SNOW MAY             
MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE                 
ENDING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.                   
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RULE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAKES TEMPERATURE            
FORECASTS TRICKY. APPEARS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS UP                
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR                   
ENTERING PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY FOR A COOLER END OF THE FORECAST.               
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS EARLY AND DECREASED THEM LATE WITH THIS IN                 
MIND...BUT CAN ENVISION ACTUAL TEMPS MORE EXTREME THAN CURRENTLY                
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR RATHER LOW IN THIS REGIME                
WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH A SHORTWAVE AROUND                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE              
ARE INDICATIONS OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AROUND FRIDAY             
WHICH MAY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN...BUT               
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUMP ON ANYTHING.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT. APPEARS PRECIP WILL BEGIN IN            
THE 6Z-9Z TIME FRAME WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST IFR DURING              
PEAK INTENSITY TIME...LIKELY FROM 9Z TO 15Z. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE               
BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE GROUND BUT NOT FAR ABOVE SO FZRA IS                     
EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE 18Z CYCLE.                  
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY              
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...KSZ008>012-020>024.            
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70                   
CORRIDOR TO NEAR INTERSTATE 35 FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 15Z                    
SATURDAY...KSZ034>040-054>056.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
317 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL CYCLONE WEST OF BAJA             
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF PACIFIC                  
MOISTURE WAS STREAMING FROM QUITE LOW LATITUDES NORTHWARD THROUGH               
BAJA INTO ARIZONA AND SOUTHER NEW MEXICO.  THIS WILL BE THE LOW THAT            
GETS KICKED OUT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION LATER ON TODAY AND             
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD ADVANCEMENT OF DEEP                       
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIFT.  OF COURSE...PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE             
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE "RUNG OUT" OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL               
ROCKIES...AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF             
OF MEXICO FOR PRECIPITATION FORMATION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL              
GREAT PLAINS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE                           
SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION FOR                 
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.                         
PRECIPITATION WILL BLOSSOM SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND 06Z AS 50 KNOT LOW              
LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA.  DEEP                     
BAROCLINICITY WILL EXIST MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE DDC CWA...WHICH IS             
WHY IT IS NO SURPRISE OMEGA FIELDS FROM ALL MODELS ARE THROUGH THE              
ROOF IN THIS AREA.  THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC                   
BAROCLINICITY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL                      
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION            
WILL BE 03-09Z IT WOULD APPEAR.  THIS "WAVE" OF PRECIPITATION WILL              
BE THE ONLY GOOD SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP.  AFTER 09Z...THE PRIMARY            
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST            
INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA AT THE NOSE OF THE EXTREMELY STRONG 65 KNOT              
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/TIMING/DURATION                
PART OF THE FORECAST.  NOW ON TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND                    
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM...                                                   
HAVE BEEN MONITORING HOURLY MSAS 3-HR PRESSURE TENDENCY AND                     
OBSERVATIONS LIKE A HAWK THIS MORNING...AND COMPARING OBSERVED                  
TEMPERATURES WITH MODEL TEMPERATURES.  GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE INDEED            
STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR.  06Z SURFACE               
TEMPERATURES WERE OVER-FORECAST BY THE 6-HOUR NAM AND GFS BY 10 TO 12           
DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THIS DOES NOT LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE            
IN EITHER OF THESE MODELS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTING OVER              
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THAT SAID...THE RUC13 IN AWIPS AND THE VARIOUS              
VERSIONS OF THE RUC ON THE FSL WEBSITE SHOW A MORE REALISTIC SURFACE            
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER ACROSS WESTERN                    
KANSAS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL MIRROR THE RUC13 SFC TEMP               
PREDICTION.  HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES...AS ONCE THE            
COLD AIR GETS DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A FEW HOURS...NORTHEAST             
WINDS WILL LOCK THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.               
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE DIRECT INSOLATION TO COUNTERACT            
SURFACE COLD ADVECTION...THUS AM EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL                
RISE.  BY EVENING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 29-33            
DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DDC CWA AT PRECIPITATION ONSET...THUS              
THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN.  THERE MAY ACTUALLY              
BE A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE               
REALLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AND THE WARM LAYER ALOFT                  
REALLY INCREASES.                                                               
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS ALSO LEND                                 
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRETTY DECENT WET-BULB EFFECT ON SURFACE                      
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.  THUS...AM EXPECTING            
A FAIRLY LARGE PART OF THE DDC CWA TO SEE AT LEAST SOME FREEZING                
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING RAIN              
WILL BE NORTH OF A JETMORE TO LARNED LINE UP TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE             
70 CORRIDOR.  AT THIS TIME...AM THINKING AROUND A TENTH TO TWO                  
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE UP              
AROUND HAYS.  WILL HOIST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO REPLACE THE                
WINTER STORM WATCH...FOR THE SAME COUNTIES.  TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTY             
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA ICE                       
ACCUMULATION, BUT AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL ICE                  
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF DDC FORECAST AREA.                     
LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE WIND.  AS THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM EJECTS INTO             
COLORADO SATURDAY...VERY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL OCCUR WITH              
VERY DEEP CYCLOGENESIS.  A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM BUFR PROFILE FOR            
A LOCATION SOUTH OF GRANADA COLORADO SUGGESTS A MEAN WIND IN THE                
MIXED LAYER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS (SUSTAINED POTENTIAL) WITH WINDS AT               
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS (GUST                        
POTENTIAL).  THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE DEEP MIXING UP TO                
650MB AT THAT PARTICULAR BUFR SOUNDING LOCATION.  THE HIGH WIND                 
WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP IT IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH MY GUT              
FEELING IS THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL                   
PROBABLY FALL SHORT OF HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS DUE TO LIKELY               
LACK OF DEEPER MIXING.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE               
WARMING WILL OCCUR FROM 15Z SATURDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY             
AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AS A              
RULE LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST ZONES. -UMSCHEID             
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE                
MAINLY TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH                 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS              
EARLY THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WINDS SHOULD GO             
LIGHT BY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAYER MOISTURE WITH THIS              
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LOOK FOR RISING              
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A WARMING TREND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE              
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY, THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT              
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEW EC IS A               
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. HIGHS WILL BE             
MILD AND IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY, CLIMBING TO AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY,            
THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND            
POSSIBLY ONLY 40S ON THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS WITH                 
EXPECTED COOL RIDGE AND CLOUDY SKIES. MODELS HINT AT A BIT OF LIGHT             
PRECIP BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND MENTION A 10 POP. LOWS LOOK                
MILD ALSO IN THE MID 20S ON MONDAY MORNING THEN IN THE LOW TO MID               
30S INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO                    
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WITH THIS SURGE WILL BE              
FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 22KTS EARLY, THEN BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY             
AND DECREASE. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER            
AND THICKEN TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS BY MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS            
BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN IN THE DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BY            
AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING               
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO 12Z             
SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE AS YOU GO NORTH INTO              
THE HAYS REGION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  35  30  64  31 /  30  90  80   0                                           
GCK  31  29  65  29 /  30  90  70   0                                           
EHA  36  29  65  33 /  30 100  50   0                                           
LBL  36  30  65  33 /  30  90  50   0                                           
HYS  32  29  60  30 /  20  90  80  10                                           
P28  40  35  62  39 /  30  90  80   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO                 
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-                    
074>079.                                                                        
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/06/06                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1013 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LES IS DIMINISHING OVER NW UPPER MI AS EXPECTED. OBS INDICATE                   
PRONOUNCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE WITH SSW WINDS             
AT SAXON HARBOR/ONTONAGON AND NW WINDS AT ISLE ROYALE AND THE                   
KEWEENAW. ONTONAGON BRIEFLY SHIFTED NW AT 02Z BUT IS BACK TO                    
SW NOW. EVEN SO...THERE AREN`T ANY DOMINANT BANDS SHOWING UP ON                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LOWERING INVERSION/DRY AIR ARE APPARENTLY                  
NEGATIVELY IMPACTING LES. TO THE E...DOMINANT BAND...AIDED BY                   
ENHANCED LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE...HAS HAMMERED ERN PARTS OF ALGER              
COUNTY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES WERE PROBABLY                    
2-3IN/HR. BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING SW (NOW OVER MUNISING) WITH             
SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS ALSO                 
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT NOW. WIDE SEPARATION IS ALSO NOTED BTWN               
THE LES BANDS.                                                                  
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION                       
OVERNIGHT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST. DOMINANT            
BAND IMPACTING ALGER COUNTY MAY SLIP A BIT FARTHER W INTO THE WRN               
PART OF THE COUNTY...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GIVEN LOWERING            
INVERSION. THEN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING               
LAND BREEZES TO BECOME EVEN MORE INFLUENTIAL...LES SHOULD BEGIN TO              
RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES AND THEN ALMOST COMPLETELY OFFSHORE            
BY DAYBREAK. THIS INCLUDES NW UPPER MI AS WELL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL               
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ERN HEADLINE AREAS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1             
TO 4 INCHES...PROVIDED PRESENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS IT                  
SHOULD. TO THE NW...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.              
ELSEWHERE...WILL DROP MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W AS OBS SHOW                 
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR OR BLO FCST MINS ALREADY (KLNL ALREADY FELL TO            
-8F AND KIMT -2F). STRATOCU FIELD HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND FROM LAKE              
SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND CAUSED TEMPS TO SPIKE BACK UP...BUT THERE MAY             
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET AGAIN AFTER STRATOCU DEPARTS             
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE. MAY SEE -10F OR SO IN THE TYPICAL COLD                  
SPOTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED 440 PM EST)...                                         
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS               
NAMERICA WITH UPR GRT LKS DOMINATED BY ARCTIC BRANCH TROFFING                   
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. VERY COLD AIRMASS UNDER THIS TROF...WITH              
12Z H5/H85 TEMPS OF -40C/-31C AT YPL. PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS OVER              
THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (ARND 4C) IN WNW FLOW BTWN HI              
PRES NR OMA AND LO PRES MOVING THRU SE ONTARIO HAS RESULTED IN NMRS             
WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS THAT ARE IMPACTING THOSE PORTIONS OF THE FA             
FVRD BY WNW LLVL FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS DRY IN AN                   
ABSOLUTE SENSE (12Z PWAT ONLY 0.06 INCH AT INL WITH SFC DWPTS ARND              
-10F)...AN INSPECTION OF THE INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS THE 13Z               
TAMDAR SDNG FM HIB INDICATES THE LLVLS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST. IN                 
FACT...BACK EDGE OF LK SC IS NOT SEPARATING FM THE MN NORTH                     
SHORE...SUGING DRYING IS NOT OVERWHELMING THE LES INTENSITY YET.                
SPOTTER REPORTS FM THE E ARND GRAND MARAIS INDICATE UP TO 3 INCHES              
OF SN FELL IN JUST 3 HOURS OR SO THERE THIS MRNG WHEN LES BAND CAME             
ASHORE. OVER THE SCNTRL...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLR TO PCLDY WITH                 
TEMPS WELL BLO NORMAL FOR THE SEASON (17Z WIND CHILL AS LO AS -18F              
AT IWD). AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES RDG IN THE              
PLAINS IS EVEN DRIER/MORE STABLE PER 12Z BIS/ABR SDNGS. A POTENT                
SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING THRU CA (12HR H3 HGT                 
FALLS CLOSE TO 200M) WITH ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL JET DISTURBANCE MOVING            
NEWD TOWARD THE DESERT SW. HI CLDS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ARE                  
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A DECENT TAP OF                  
TROPICAL MSTR FLOWING N AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY.                                 
SHORT TERM (TNGT/SAT)...                                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS THRU TNGT.              
FOCUS ON SAT SHIFTS TO GATHERING STORM IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH            
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM AND TIMING OF ANY                
ACCOMPANYING PCPN INTO THE FA.                                                  
FOR TNGT...MODELS FCSTG 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M OVER THE                
UPR GRT LKS BTWN DEPARTING ARCTIC BRANCH TROF AND DEEPENING TROF IN             
THE W ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.                   
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER THESE HGT RISES AS WELL AS DRIER/              
MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOW OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A               
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES/WINDS/BLSN TNGT. HOWEVER... LES            
WL LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT E OF P53 IN MORE PERSISTENT WNW FLOW.            
SINCE GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SHOW FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CNVGC              
PERSISTING OVER THE E BTWN LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW AND DVLPG WSW LAND             
BREEZE FLOW OFF LAND TO THE N OF HI CENTER TRACKING THRU WI...WL                
CONTINUE GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR THE E. EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN              
PERSISTENT LAND BREEZE CNVGC WITH LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW IMPACTING               
ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THIS EVNG...BUT LATEST OB FM ONTONAGON SHOWS              
THE WIND THERE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE SSW. SO ALLOWED GOING WRNG            
FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED. SINCE THE EARLIER                  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE LAND BREEZE CNVGC AXIS WOULD SHIFT STEADILY N            
THRU TNGT AFTER STALLING OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY...LIMITING THE                   
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE KEWEENAW... ALLOWED GOING WRNG TO EXPIRE AT             
00Z FOR KEWEENAW/NRN HOUGHTON AS WELL. BUT IF THE CNVGC AXIS                    
PERSISTS FARTHER N...THE WRNG FOR THESE ZNS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.            
OTRW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE             
INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION PER DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM EVEN THOUGH             
SOME HI CLD MAY DRIFT IN LATE. MANY INTERIOR PLACES WL SEE SOME SUB             
ZERO MINS.                                                                      
ON SAT...LINGERING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW/ERN ZNS WL END SAT MRNG AS             
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW BACKS TO S BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE E AND            
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS. THERE WL ALREADY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID/            
HI CLD STREAMING INTO THE FA AT 12Z...AND THESE CLDS WL THEN LOWER              
AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF RETREATING H3 JET              
MAX AND DVLPG DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SHOWN ON THE GFS FCST                 
280K-310K SFCS. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THESE            
FEATURES...BUT NCEP PREFERS THE FASTER GFS. WENT LIKELY POPS NEAR               
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MSTR/SHARPER DYNAMICS                
AND/OR WHERE SE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT ENHANCE MOISTENING. BUT            
TENDED TO GO SLOWER INTRODUCING THE HIER POPS FARTHER NE AS GFS                 
SHOWS SHARPER H8-6 FGEN/UPR DVGC TENDING TO REMAIN TO THE S THRU SAT            
AFTN. UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF SN MAY ACCUMULATE ALONG THE WI BORDER BY              
00Z SUN.                                                                        
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)...                                               
THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY               
SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                
06Z GFS HAD THE SURFACE LOW OVER S-SW WISCONSIN AT 12Z SUNDAY.  THE             
12Z NAM WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE LOW STILL OVER S-CENTRAL                 
IOWA.  IN FACT...IT IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  THIS            
COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF HEAVY SNOW OR MIXED            
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. TAKING THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE INTO               
ACCOUNT...THE 540 LINE IS LOCATED IN SIMILAR                                    
LOCATIONS...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE U.P. EXCLUDING KEWEENAW COUNTY              
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUCE COUNTY.  WILL NEED TO KEEP                
THIS IN MIND AS WE FIGURE OUT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                      
EITHER WAY...AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SNOW WILL DOMINATE UPPER MICHIGAN AS            
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD               
INTO LAKE HURON AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO.                               
WHEN COMPARING THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE                           
CAN/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/NAM...THE NAM WAS INDEED MUCH SLOWER.  AS A                 
RESULT OF THIS AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS                   
DISCUSSION THAT IT WAS ONE OF THE FARTHER SE MODELS....WITH LIMITED             
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT WAS DISCREDITED AND NOT USED IN THIS                
FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY.  AT 00Z MONDAY...THERE WERE                 
GENERALLY 3 TRAINS OF THOUGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW NAM...THE               
MORE NORTHERN AND CONSISTENTLY DEEPER UKMET/CANADIAN...AND THE                  
QUICKER GFS/ECMWF.  WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TO THE GFS/ECMWF WITH               
SOME THOUGHT GIVEN TO THE BLEND OF THE CANADIAN/UKMET.                          
SO...FORECAST WISE...WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY             
MORNING ON OUR STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.           
ELEVATED WARM LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY POSE A              
PROBLEM FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS POCKET 0 TO -2C BETWEEN 700 AND            
800MB SHOWS UP FROM 09Z-17Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT IMT WITH SFC TEMPS              
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  SO HAVE UTILIZED THE 750MB GFS TEMPS              
HEAVILY WHEN FIGURING OUT WEATHER FOR...SINCE THE SNOW GROWTH REGION            
IS BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT RIGHT                 
AROUND 18Z...SO JUST SLIGHTLY BEFORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM.                       
STILL...BY THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL HAVE                   
FALLEN.  AS A RESULT...WARNINGS SEEM LIKELY.                                    
LOOKING AT MONDAY NIGHT/00Z TUESDAY THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE              
00Z ECMWF TO PUSH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND              
STATES...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR AT            
LEAST THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB LOW.  HOWEVER...CLOSER TO HOME THE              
NEXT EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE CAN BE EXPECTED TO             
SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY              
00Z WEDNESDAY.  THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM.  THE 06Z GFS...WITH ITS STRONGER TROUGH...KEEPS THE GENERAL             
TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT              
FRIDAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKER RENDITION...THE             
00Z ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR SMALL SCALE RIDGING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE             
TIME FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON.  SO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT                     
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS            
HEAVILY UTILIZED...FOR DAYS 4/TUESDAY THROUGH 7/FRIDAY.  THIS DID               
NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z CANADIAN...BUT WAS INSTEAD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY              
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE               
MEAN FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN              
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS                 
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL EXTEND FROM OUR REGION THROUGH               
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MIDWEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THIS              
FCST PERIOD. APPROACHING WINTER STORM SAT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK              
LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR/IFR LATE IN THE AFTN AS SNOW                       
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AT KCMX...FINALLY...IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN                
THIS EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SHSN DIMINISH DUE TO HIGH PRES DRIFTING             
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW               
HRS...ENDING BLSN. CIGS HAVE ALREADY LIFTED TO VFR...BUT THAT                   
PROBABLY WON`T BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION AS INVERSION LOWERS                 
UNDER APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WILL OPT FOR MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE             
NIGHT. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE VLIFR VIS CONDITIONS WILL END SHORTLY AS             
WINDS/SNOW DIMINISH. BY THE END OF THE EVENING...EXPECT MVFR VIS AND            
OCCASIONAL IFR. SHSN SHOULD END LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS GO VRBL              
THEN SSE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE UNTIL LEADING EDGE OF            
APPROACHING WINTER STORM ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE AFTN. MDT/HVY                
SNOW AND LIFR POSSIBLE VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING AT             
KSAW/KCMX...JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO TO MOVE TO MAINE TONIGHT AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND              
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING WNW GALES THIS EVNG WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNGT              
AS THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PUSHES EWD. THE            
HIGH WILL REACH WESTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE            
OF 29.2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING REACHES LAKE            
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ESE GALE SAT            
NGT INTO SUN AS THIS LOW GRINDS INTO HI PRES TO THE NE AND SHARPENS             
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. THE LOW WILL THEN REACH THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER N GALE EVENT IS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO            
MONDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE RIDGE             
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY FROM ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. ATTM...EXPECT N WINDS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT                  
TIGHTENS OVER THE UPR LKS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST                  
     SUN MIZ001-003>007-014-085.                                                
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SAT TO 1 PM                 
      EST /12 PM CST/ SUN MIZ002-009>013-084.                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 3 AM EST SAT MIZ085.                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SAT MIZ006-007.                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
635 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 440 PM EST)...                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS               
NAMERICA WITH UPR GRT LKS DOMINATED BY ARCTIC BRANCH TROFFING                   
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. VERY COLD AIRMASS UNDER THIS TROF...WITH              
12Z H5/H85 TEMPS OF -40C/-31C AT YPL. PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS OVER              
THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (ARND 4C) IN WNW FLOW BTWN HI              
PRES NR OMA AND LO PRES MOVING THRU SE ONTARIO HAS RESULTED IN NMRS             
WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS THAT ARE IMPACTING THOSE PORTIONS OF THE FA             
FVRD BY WNW LLVL FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS DRY IN AN                   
ABSOLUTE SENSE (12Z PWAT ONLY 0.06 INCH AT INL WITH SFC DWPTS ARND              
-10F)...AN INSPECTION OF THE INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS THE 13Z               
TAMDAR SDNG FM HIB INDICATES THE LLVLS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST. IN                 
FACT...BACK EDGE OF LK SC IS NOT SEPARATING FM THE MN NORTH                     
SHORE...SUGING DRYING IS NOT OVERWHELMING THE LES INTENSITY YET.                
SPOTTER REPORTS FM THE E ARND GRAND MARAIS INDICATE UP TO 3 INCHES              
OF SN FELL IN JUST 3 HOURS OR SO THERE THIS MRNG WHEN LES BAND CAME             
ASHORE. OVER THE SCNTRL...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLR TO PCLDY WITH                 
TEMPS WELL BLO NORMAL FOR THE SEASON (17Z WIND CHILL AS LO AS -18F              
AT IWD). AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES RDG IN THE              
PLAINS IS EVEN DRIER/MORE STABLE PER 12Z BIS/ABR SDNGS. A POTENT                
SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING THRU CA (12HR H3 HGT                 
FALLS CLOSE TO 200M) WITH ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL JET DISTURBANCE MOVING            
NEWD TOWARD THE DESERT SW. HI CLDS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ARE                  
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A DECENT TAP OF                  
TROPICAL MSTR FLOWING N AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT/SAT ISSUED AT 440 PM EST)...                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS THRU TNGT.              
FOCUS ON SAT SHIFTS TO GATHERING STORM IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH            
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM AND TIMING OF ANY                
ACCOMPANYING PCPN INTO THE FA.                                                  
FOR TNGT...MODELS FCSTG 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M OVER THE                
UPR GRT LKS BTWN DEPARTING ARCTIC BRANCH TROF AND DEEPENING TROF IN             
THE W ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.                   
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER THESE HGT RISES AS WELL AS DRIER/              
MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOW OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A               
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES/WINDS/BLSN TNGT. HOWEVER... LES            
WL LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT E OF P53 IN MORE PERSISTENT WNW FLOW.            
SINCE GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SHOW FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CNVGC              
PERSISTING OVER THE E BTWN LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW AND DVLPG WSW LAND             
BREEZE FLOW OFF LAND TO THE N OF HI CENTER TRACKING THRU WI...WL                
CONTINUE GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR THE E. EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN              
PERSISTENT LAND BREEZE CNVGC WITH LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW IMPACTING               
ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THIS EVNG...BUT LATEST OB FM ONTONAGON SHOWS              
THE WIND THERE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE SSW. SO ALLOWED GOING WRNG            
FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED. SINCE THE EARLIER                  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE LAND BREEZE CNVGC AXIS WOULD SHIFT STEADILY N            
THRU TNGT AFTER STALLING OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY...LIMITING THE                   
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE KEWEENAW... ALLOWED GOING WRNG TO EXPIRE AT             
00Z FOR KEWEENAW/NRN HOUGHTON AS WELL. BUT IF THE CNVGC AXIS                    
PERSISTS FARTHER N...THE WRNG FOR THESE ZNS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.            
OTRW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE             
INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION PER DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM EVEN THOUGH             
SOME HI CLD MAY DRIFT IN LATE. MANY INTERIOR PLACES WL SEE SOME SUB             
ZERO MINS.                                                                      
ON SAT...LINGERING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW/ERN ZNS WL END SAT MRNG AS             
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW BACKS TO S BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE E AND            
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS. THERE WL ALREADY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID/            
HI CLD STREAMING INTO THE FA AT 12Z...AND THESE CLDS WL THEN LOWER              
AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF RETREATING H3 JET              
MAX AND DVLPG DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SHOWN ON THE GFS FCST                 
280K-310K SFCS. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THESE            
FEATURES...BUT NCEP PREFERS THE FASTER GFS. WENT LIKELY POPS NEAR               
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MSTR/SHARPER DYNAMICS                
AND/OR WHERE SE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT ENHANCE MOISTENING. BUT            
TENDED TO GO SLOWER INTRODUCING THE HIER POPS FARTHER NE AS GFS                 
SHOWS SHARPER H8-6 FGEN/UPR DVGC TENDING TO REMAIN TO THE S THRU SAT            
AFTN. UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF SN MAY ACCUMULATE ALONG THE WI BORDER BY              
00Z SUN.                                                                        
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI ISSUED AT 440 PM EST)...                         
THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY               
SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                
06Z GFS HAD THE SURFACE LOW OVER S-SW WISCONSIN AT 12Z SUNDAY.  THE             
12Z NAM WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE LOW STILL OVER S-CENTRAL                 
IOWA.  IN FACT...IT IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  THIS            
COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF HEAVY SNOW OR MIXED            
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. TAKING THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE INTO               
ACCOUNT...THE 540 LINE IS LOCATED IN SIMILAR                                    
LOCATIONS...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE U.P. EXCLUDING KEWEENAW COUNTY              
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUCE COUNTY.  WILL NEED TO KEEP                
THIS IN MIND AS WE FIGURE OUT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                      
EITHER WAY...AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SNOW WILL DOMINATE UPPER MICHIGAN AS            
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD               
INTO LAKE HURON AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO.                               
WHEN COMPARING THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE                           
CAN/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/NAM...THE NAM WAS INDEED MUCH SLOWER.  AS A                 
RESULT OF THIS AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS                   
DISCUSSION THAT IT WAS ONE OF THE FARTHER SE MODELS....WITH LIMITED             
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT WAS DISCREDITED AND NOT USED IN THIS                
FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY.  AT 00Z MONDAY...THERE WERE                 
GENERALLY 3 TRAINS OF THOUGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW NAM...THE               
MORE NORTHERN AND CONSISTENTLY DEEPER UKMET/CANADIAN...AND THE                  
QUICKER GFS/ECMWF.  WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TO THE GFS/ECMWF WITH               
SOME THOUGHT GIVEN TO THE BLEND OF THE CANADIAN/UKMET.                          
SO...FORECAST WISE...WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY             
MORNING ON OUR STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.           
ELEVATED WARM LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY POSE A              
PROBLEM FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS POCKET 0 TO -2C BETWEEN 700 AND            
800MB SHOWS UP FROM 09Z-17Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT IMT WITH SFC TEMPS              
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  SO HAVE UTILIZED THE 750MB GFS TEMPS              
HEAVILY WHEN FIGURING OUT WEATHER FOR...SINCE THE SNOW GROWTH REGION            
IS BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT RIGHT                 
AROUND 18Z...SO JUST SLIGHTLY BEFORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM.                       
STILL...BY THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL HAVE                   
FALLEN.  AS A RESULT...WARNINGS SEEM LIKELY.                                    
LOOKING AT MONDAY NIGHT/00Z TUESDAY THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE              
00Z ECMWF TO PUSH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND              
STATES...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR AT            
LEAST THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB LOW.  HOWEVER...CLOSER TO HOME THE              
NEXT EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE CAN BE EXPECTED TO             
SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY              
00Z WEDNESDAY.  THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM.  THE 06Z GFS...WITH ITS STRONGER TROUGH...KEEPS THE GENERAL             
TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT              
FRIDAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKER RENDITION...THE             
00Z ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR SMALL SCALE RIDGING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE             
TIME FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON.  SO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT                     
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS            
HEAVILY UTILIZED...FOR DAYS 4/TUESDAY THROUGH 7/FRIDAY.  THIS DID               
NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z CANADIAN...BUT WAS INSTEAD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY              
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE               
MEAN FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN              
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS                 
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL EXTEND FROM OUR REGION THROUGH               
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MIDWEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THIS              
FCST PERIOD. APPROACHING WINTER STORM SAT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK              
LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR/IFR LATE IN THE AFTN AS SNOW                       
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AT KCMX...FINALLY...IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN                
THIS EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SHSN DIMINISH DUE TO HIGH PRES DRIFTING             
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW               
HRS...ENDING BLSN. CIGS HAVE ALREADY LIFTED TO VFR...BUT THAT                   
PROBABLY WON`T BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION AS INVERSION LOWERS                 
UNDER APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WILL OPT FOR MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE             
NIGHT. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE VLIFR VIS CONDITIONS WILL END SHORTLY AS             
WINDS/SNOW DIMINISH. BY THE END OF THE EVENING...EXPECT MVFR VIS AND            
OCCASIONAL IFR. SHSN SHOULD END LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS GO VRBL              
THEN SSE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE UNTIL LEADING EDGE OF            
APPROACHING WINTER STORM ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE AFTN. MDT/HVY                
SNOW AND LIFR POSSIBLE VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING AT             
KSAW/KCMX...JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO TO MOVE TO MAINE TONIGHT AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND              
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING WNW GALES THIS EVNG WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNGT              
AS THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PUSHES EWD. THE            
HIGH WILL REACH WESTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE            
OF 29.2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING REACHES LAKE            
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ESE GALE SAT            
NGT INTO SUN AS THIS LOW GRINDS INTO HI PRES TO THE NE AND SHARPENS             
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. THE LOW WILL THEN REACH THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER N GALE EVENT IS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO            
MONDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE RIDGE             
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY FROM ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. ATTM...EXPECT N WINDS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT                  
TIGHTENS OVER THE UPR LKS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST                  
     SUN MIZ001-003>007-014-085.                                                
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING MIZ001>003.               
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SAT TO 1 PM                 
     EST /12 PM CST/ SUN MIZ002-009>013-084.                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 3 AM EST SAT MIZ085.                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SAT MIZ006-007.                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING                        
     LSZ249>251-265>267.                                                        
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
440 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS               
NAMERICA WITH UPR GRT LKS DOMINATED BY ARCTIC BRANCH TROFFING                   
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. VERY COLD AIRMASS UNDER THIS TROF...WITH              
12Z H5/H85 TEMPS OF -40C/-31C AT YPL. PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS OVER              
THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (ARND 4C) IN WNW FLOW BTWN HI              
PRES NR OMA AND LO PRES MOVING THRU SE ONTARIO HAS RESULTED IN NMRS             
WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS THAT ARE IMPACTING THOSE PORTIONS OF THE FA             
FVRD BY WNW LLVL FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS DRY IN AN                   
ABSOLUTE SENSE (12Z PWAT ONLY 0.06 INCH AT INL WITH SFC DWPTS ARND              
-10F)...AN INSPECTION OF THE INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS THE 13Z               
TAMDAR SDNG FM HIB INDICATES THE LLVLS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST. IN                 
FACT...BACK EDGE OF LK SC IS NOT SEPARATING FM THE MN NORTH                     
SHORE...SUGING DRYING IS NOT OVERWHELMING THE LES INTENSITY YET.                
SPOTTER REPORTS FM THE E ARND GRAND MARAIS INDICATE UP TO 3 INCHES              
OF SN FELL IN JUST 3 HOURS OR SO THERE THIS MRNG WHEN LES BAND CAME             
ASHORE. OVER THE SCNTRL...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLR TO PCLDY WITH                 
TEMPS WELL BLO NORMAL FOR THE SEASON (17Z WIND CHILL AS LO AS -18F              
AT IWD). AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES RDG IN THE              
PLAINS IS EVEN DRIER/MORE STABLE PER 12Z BIS/ABR SDNGS. A POTENT                
SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING THRU CA (12HR H3 HGT                 
FALLS CLOSE TO 200M) WITH ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL JET DISTURBANCE MOVING            
NEWD TOWARD THE DESERT SW. HI CLDS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ARE                  
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A DECENT TAP OF                  
TROPICAL MSTR FLOWING N AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT/SAT)...                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS THRU TNGT.              
FOCUS ON SAT SHIFTS TO GATHERING STORM IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH            
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM AND TIMING OF ANY                
ACCOMPANYING PCPN INTO THE FA.                                                  
FOR TNGT...MODELS FCSTG 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M OVER THE                
UPR GRT LKS BTWN DEPARTING ARCTIC BRANCH TROF AND DEEPENING TROF IN             
THE W ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.                   
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER THESE HGT RISES AS WELL AS DRIER/              
MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOW OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A               
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES/WINDS/BLSN TNGT. HOWEVER... LES            
WL LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT E OF P53 IN MORE PERSISTENT WNW FLOW.            
SINCE GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SHOW FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CNVGC              
PERSISTING OVER THE E BTWN LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW AND DVLPG WSW LAND             
BREEZE FLOW OFF LAND TO THE N OF HI CENTER TRACKING THRU WI...WL                
CONTINUE GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR THE E. EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN              
PERSISTENT LAND BREEZE CNVGC WITH LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW IMPACTING               
ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THIS EVNG...BUT LATEST OB FM ONTONAGON SHOWS              
THE WIND THERE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE SSW. SO ALLOWED GOING WRNG            
FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED. SINCE THE EARLIER                  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE LAND BREEZE CNVGC AXIS WOULD SHIFT STEADILY N            
THRU TNGT AFTER STALLING OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY...LIMITING THE                   
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE KEWEENAW... ALLOWED GOING WRNG TO EXPIRE AT             
00Z FOR KEWEENAW/NRN HOUGHTON AS WELL. BUT IF THE CNVGC AXIS                    
PERSISTS FARTHER N...THE WRNG FOR THESE ZNS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.            
OTRW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE             
INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION PER DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM EVEN THOUGH             
SOME HI CLD MAY DRIFT IN LATE. MANY INTERIOR PLACES WL SEE SOME SUB             
ZERO MINS.                                                                      
ON SAT...LINGERING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW/ERN ZNS WL END SAT MRNG AS             
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW BACKS TO S BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE E AND            
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS. THERE WL ALREADY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID/            
HI CLD STREAMING INTO THE FA AT 12Z...AND THESE CLDS WL THEN LOWER              
AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF RETREATING H3 JET              
MAX AND DVLPG DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SHOWN ON THE GFS FCST                 
280K-310K SFCS. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THESE            
FEATURES...BUT NCEP PREFERS THE FASTER GFS. WENT LIKELY POPS NEAR               
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MSTR/SHARPER DYNAMICS                
AND/OR WHERE SE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT ENHANCE MOISTENING. BUT            
TENDED TO GO SLOWER INTRODUCING THE HIER POPS FARTHER NE AS GFS                 
SHOWS SHARPER H8-6 FGEN/UPR DVGC TENDING TO REMAIN TO THE S THRU SAT            
AFTN. UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF SN MAY ACCUMULATE ALONG THE WI BORDER BY              
00Z SUN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY               
SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                
06Z GFS HAD THE SURFACE LOW OVER S-SW WISCONSIN AT 12Z SUNDAY.  THE             
12Z NAM WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE LOW STILL OVER S-CENTRAL                 
IOWA.  IN FACT...IT IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  THIS            
COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF HEAVY SNOW OR MIXED            
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. TAKING THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE INTO               
ACCOUNT...THE 540 LINE IS LOCATED IN SIMILAR                                    
LOCATIONS...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE U.P. EXCLUDING KEWEENAW COUNTY              
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUCE COUNTY.  WILL NEED TO KEEP                
THIS IN MIND AS WE FIGURE OUT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                      
EITHER WAY...AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SNOW WILL DOMINATE UPPER MICHIGAN AS            
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD               
INTO LAKE HURON AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO.                               
WHEN COMPARING THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE                           
CAN/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/NAM...THE NAM WAS INDEED MUCH SLOWER.  AS A                 
RESULT OF THIS AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS                   
DISCUSSION THAT IT WAS ONE OF THE FARTHER SE MODELS....WITH LIMITED             
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT WAS DISCREDITED AND NOT USED IN THIS                
FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY.  AT 00Z MONDAY...THERE WERE                 
GENERALLY 3 TRAINS OF THOUGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW NAM...THE               
MORE NORTHERN AND CONSISTENTLY DEEPER UKMET/CANADIAN...AND THE                  
QUICKER GFS/ECMWF.  WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TO THE GFS/ECMWF WITH               
SOME THOUGHT GIVEN TO THE BLEND OF THE CANADIAN/UKMET.                          
SO...FORECAST WISE...WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY             
MORNING ON OUR STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.           
ELEVATED WARM LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY POSE A              
PROBLEM FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS POCKET 0 TO -2C BETWEEN 700 AND            
800MB SHOWS UP FROM 09Z-17Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT IMT WITH SFC TEMPS              
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  SO HAVE UTILIZED THE 750MB GFS TEMPS              
HEAVILY WHEN FIGURING OUT WEATHER FOR...SINCE THE SNOW GROWTH REGION            
IS BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT RIGHT                 
AROUND 18Z...SO JUST SLIGHTLY BEFORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM.                       
STILL...BY THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL HAVE                   
FALLEN.  AS A RESULT...WARNINGS SEEM LIKELY.                                    
LOOKING AT MONDAY NIGHT/00Z TUESDAY THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE              
00Z ECMWF TO PUSH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND              
STATES...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR AT            
LEAST THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB LOW.  HOWEVER...CLOSER TO HOME THE              
NEXT EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE CAN BE EXPECTED TO             
SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY              
00Z WEDNESDAY.  THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM.  THE 06Z GFS...WITH ITS STRONGER TROUGH...KEEPS THE GENERAL             
TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT              
FRIDAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKER RENDITION...THE             
00Z ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR SMALL SCALE RIDGING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE             
TIME FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON.  SO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT                     
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS            
HEAVILY UTILIZED...FOR DAYS 4/TUESDAY THROUGH 7/FRIDAY.  THIS DID               
NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z CANADIAN...BUT WAS INSTEAD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY              
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE               
MEAN FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN              
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS                 
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL EXTEND FROM OUR REGION THROUGH               
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MIDWEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...AT CMX CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN             
TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY LIFR CONDITION UNTIL            
THEN. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A WEAKENING WIND FIELD             
AND A DIRECTION CHANGE TO OFFSHORE...AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD BASES               
WILL RISE AS LAKE EFFECT MECHANISMS WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE WIND.                 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF              
THE TAF PERIOD. AT SAW...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...MAINLY            
BEFORE 22Z. CLOUD DECKS WILL BE MVFR AT WORST...THOUGH THESE                    
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY IF THEY MANIFEST. AS THE WINDS BECOME            
MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING...ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL AWAY FROM              
KSAW...LEAVING A SCATTERED DECK BEHIND. AT THE SAME TIME...A DECK OF            
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS               
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO TO MOVE TO MAINE TONIGHT AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND              
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING WNW GALES THIS EVNG WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNGT              
AS THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PUSHES EWD. THE            
HIGH WILL REACH WESTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE            
OF 29.2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING REACHES LAKE            
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ESE GALE SAT            
NGT INTO SUN AS THIS LOW GRINDS INTO HI PRES TO THE NE AND SHARPENS             
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. THE LOW WILL THEN REACH THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER N GALE EVENT IS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO            
MONDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE RIDGE             
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY FROM ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. ATTM...EXPECT N WINDS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT                  
TIGHTENS OVER THE UPR LKS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003>007-014-085.                                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>003.           
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SATURDAY TO 1 PM            
     EST /12 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009>013-084.                             
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ085.              
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007.               
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1232 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1029 PM EST)...                                              
SHIFTING LES IS THE MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF DOMINATING CANADA              
AND THE NRN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW LOCATED JUST SW OF HUDSON BAY.              
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS               
EVENING. 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF -25C...5C LWR THAN              
AT 12Z. FARTHER UPSTREAM...850MB TEMP AT CYQD N OF LAKE WINNIPEG WAS            
A FRIGID -29C. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD DAY FRI. IN              
THE MEANTIME...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE TOWARD THE UPPER                 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS CAUSING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BACK ACROSS UPPER              
MI WITH LAND BREEZES FURTHER BACKING WINDS TO A SW DIRECTION ALONG              
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THIS SHIFTED LES BANDS QUICKLY OFFSHORE OF             
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. TO THE NW...BANDS ARE ALSO                    
SHIFTING N...AND IT APPEARS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW FALLING S OF             
HOUGHTON NOW. ENHANCED LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE FROM KDLH TOWARD THE             
APOSTLES IS LEADING TO A DOMINANT LES BAND STREAMING ENE TO THE                 
KEWEENAW PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT BAND APPEARS TO BE CROSSING                
KEWEENAW COUNTY ATTM. IN FACT...OBSERVER AT MOHAWK REPORTED 2.5                 
INCHES OF SNOW BTWN 01-02Z WITH 4 INCHES TOTAL FROM 01Z-0315Z.                  
AS SHORTWAVE PASSES...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE NWRLY                 
DIRECTION ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN             
SHIFT LES BACK TO THE S. 00Z RUC AND LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW               
INDICATE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL ALREADY BEGIN SHIFTING BACK S ACROSS             
THE KEWEENAW SOMETIME BTWN 04-06Z AND WILL REACH NRN ONTONAGON                  
COUNTY BTWN 09-12Z. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL AROUND 12Z THAT THE                     
CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REACH THE ERN FCST AREA FROM GRAND MARAIS EWD.            
HAVE ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE SHSN             
S OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE TO NO OVERWATER FETCH WITH A SW WIND.             
HAVE MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT TO DELAY                        
REINTRODUCTION OF SHSN AS CONVERGENCE ZONE SLOWLY SHIFTS S. AS FOR              
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NW COUNTIES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS              
WILL BE WEIGHED HEAVILY ON MOVEMENT OF THE DOMINANT HVY SNOW BAND               
NOW OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3IN/HR WILL OCCUR             
AS THIS BAND SLOWLY SHIFTS S. ONCE BAND STARTS MOVING S...WOULD                 
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOVEMENT FOR IT NOT TO LINGER MORE THAN A COUPLE              
OF HRS AT ANY LOCATION. SO...BTWN NOW AND 12Z...A GENERAL 4-6 INCHES            
OF NEW SNOW SHOULD FALL FROM AROUND MOHAWK S TO NEAR ROCKLAND.                  
MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE            
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE              
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ONCE AGAIN...TURNING OFF MUCH OF THE SNOW                
SHOWERS.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY                 
POSTED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL ITS GIVEN EXPIRATION TIME.                           
OTHERWISE...FARTHER TO THE WEST...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO WESTERLY               
WINDS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FOR THE KEWEENAW               
PENINSULA.  WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THERE WITH NO                
CHANGES IN TIME.                                                                
AS THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE              
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA...WINDS WILL WEAKEN.  A SECONDARY              
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE OVER THE                  
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND RESIDE OVER THE FAR             
EASTERN U.P. BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO BRING ABOUT                      
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE REGION BY 16Z FRIDAY...WITH             
A LIKELY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE              
500MB CLOSED LOW WILL SKIM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY                   
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND                   
ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW GAINING STEAM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA             
FRIDAY EVENING.                                                                 
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED LOWERING POPS AND            
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS              
WELL AS LOWERING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.                               
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM LES TO IMPACTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM                
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.                                            
FRI NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES               
BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY SATURDAY                    
MORNING. WNW CBL WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL NEAR -20C WILL KEEP              
LES GOING OVER THE WEST AND FOR LOCATIONS FROM MUNISING EASTWARD.               
THE 12Z LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW AND THE NAM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR                  
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV AGAIN NEAR ONTONAGON AND M-38 OVERNIGHT AS              
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AND WEAKEN. SIMILARLY...IN THE EAST A WEAKER            
WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROFFING TO DEVELOP WITH                     
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES IF A MESO-LOW LIKE                   
FEATURE BRUSHES THE SHORELINE. FCST INCLUDES LES ACCUMULATION RANGE             
OF 1 TO 4 INCHES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH SHIFTING LES BAND(S)                    
POSITION IN WEAKER WIND REGIME.                                                 
SAT INTO SUN...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT               
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND PATH OF THE SURFACE              
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE PREFERRED 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET                 
CONSENSUS BRINGS THE LOW TO NEAR CENTRAL WI BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE N             
END OF LK HURON BY 00Z/MON. THE CANADIAN GLBL GEM CONTINUED TO                  
DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD PATH TOWARD WEST UPPER MI BY 12Z/SUN. STRONG             
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL FEATURE COUPLED 300 MB JET STRUCTURE               
WITH STRONG 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE                 
REGION. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS (WARM LAYER TO NEAR 2C BTWN 800-750 MB)              
AND GFS/ECMWF/UKMET 850-700 THICKNESS PROGS(INTO THE 1545-1560M                 
RANGE) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET INTO SRN UPPER MI. SINCE THE            
GFS OFTEN UNDERPLAYS ELEVATED WARM LAYER...A MENTION OF FZRA WAS                
ALSO INCLUDED SOUTH. AN INFLUX OF WARMER AIR ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI            
WHERE ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED COULD ALSO BRING A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.             
DRYING ABOVE 750 MB COULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF FZDZ SUN MORNING.              
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH NEARLY 4-5 G/KG JUST                 
UPSTREAM ON 295K SFC. MODELS QPF AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.00                  
INCH FROM LATE SAT INTO MIDDAY SUN WITH SNOWFALL/RATIO NEAR 10/1                
WOULD BRING SNOW TOTALS OF 6-10 INCHES. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR              
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH              
MAINLY WAA PCPN WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS            
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW LATE SUN AND STRONGER CAA MOVES IN. WITH                 
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON STORM PATH AND IMPACT ON PCPN TYPE AND                 
TIMING OF PCPN INTO LATE DAY 2...HELD OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL             
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.                                
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...STRONG CAA PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18C               
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR              
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NNW TO NW FLOW.                                            
TUE-THU...THE ECMWF TRENDED NORTHWARD AND HAS COME INTO BETTER                  
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH LATE TUE               
INTO TUE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS STILL LOW...BUT WITH               
COLDER REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...THE SHORTWAVE COULD               
ALSO BRING PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LES              
IN ITS WAKE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...UNDER CURRENT LAKE EFFECT REGIME...GENERAL WRLY FLOW                  
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER            
SLIGHTLY FRI MORNING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY            
SOME FLURRIES. THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS A            
FEW HRS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO                   
INCLUDE ATTM. KCMX WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAMMERED BY LAKE EFFECT SHSN             
AND BLSN...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING. CONVERGENT WINDS OVER              
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE PRODUCED A SINGLE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
BAND WHICH IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW N OF KCMX. AS WINDS              
VEER OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...THIS INTENSE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT S TO             
KCMX...RESULTING IN VLIFR VIS OF 1/4SM IN +SHSN. AFTER THE SNOW BAND            
SINKS S OF KCMX...STRONG W WINDS WILL AGAIN TAKE OVER WITH                      
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN ADDITION TO PERSISTENT SHSN/-SHSN. VLIFR VIS IN            
-SHSN/BLSN WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.                       
APPROACHING HIGH PRES FRI AFTN SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL IMPROVING                 
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT -SHSN MAY KEEP VIS IN THE IFR RANGE            
THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN              
THE EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO BLSN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE               
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY             
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION.             
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH             
MID MORNING FRIDAY.  STILL...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT             
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  BRIEF             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW 30 KNOTS.  FOLLOWING               
THAT WILL BE THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES              
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GALES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...                                                                     
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRI MIZ001>003.                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRI LSZ266-267.                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1029 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHIFTING LES IS THE MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF DOMINATING CANADA              
AND THE NRN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW LOCATED JUST SW OF HUDSON BAY.              
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS               
EVENING. 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF -25C...5C LWR THAN              
AT 12Z. FARTHER UPSTREAM...850MB TEMP AT CYQD N OF LAKE WINNIPEG WAS            
A FRIGID -29C. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD DAY FRI. IN THE          
MEANTIME...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SE TOWARD THE UPPER                     
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS CAUSING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BACK ACROSS UPPER              
MI WITH LAND BREEZES FURTHER BACKING WINDS TO A SW DIRECTION ALONG              
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THIS SHIFTED LES BANDS QUICKLY OFFSHORE OF             
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. TO THE NW...BANDS ARE ALSO                    
SHIFTING N...AND IT APPEARS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW FALLING S OF             
HOUGHTON NOW. ENHANCED LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE FROM KDLH TOWARD THE             
APOSTLES IS LEADING TO A DOMINANT LES BAND STREAMING ENE TO THE                 
KEWEENAW PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT BAND APPEARS TO BE CROSSING                
KEWEENAW COUNTY ATTM. IN FACT...OBSERVER AT MOHAWK REPORTED 2.5                 
INCHES OF SNOW BTWN 01-02Z WITH 4 INCHES TOTAL FROM 01Z-0315Z.                  
AS SHORTWAVE PASSES...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE NWRLY                 
DIRECTION ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN             
SHIFT LES BACK TO THE S. 00Z RUC AND LOCALLY RUN HIGH RES WRF-ARW               
INDICATE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL ALREADY BEGIN SHIFTING BACK S ACROSS             
THE KEWEENAW SOMETIME BTWN 04-06Z AND WILL REACH NRN ONTONAGON                  
COUNTY BTWN 09-12Z. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL AROUND 12Z THAT THE                     
CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REACH THE ERN FCST AREA FROM GRAND MARAIS EWD.            
HAVE ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE SHSN             
S OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE TO NO OVERWATER FETCH WITH A SW WIND.             
HAVE MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT TO DELAY                        
REINTRODUCTION OF SHSN AS CONVERGENCE ZONE SLOWLY SHIFTS S. AS FOR              
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NW COUNTIES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS              
WILL BE WEIGHED HEAVILY ON MOVEMENT OF THE DOMINANT HVY SNOW BAND               
NOW OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3IN/HR WILL OCCUR             
AS THIS BAND SLOWLY SHIFTS S. ONCE BAND STARTS MOVING S...WOULD                 
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOVEMENT FOR IT NOT TO LINGER MORE THAN A COUPLE              
OF HRS AT ANY LOCATION. SO...BTWN NOW AND 12Z...A GENERAL 4-6 INCHES            
OF NEW SNOW SHOULD FALL FROM AROUND MOHAWK S TO NEAR ROCKLAND.                  
MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 425 PM EST)...                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                               
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE            
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE              
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ONCE AGAIN...TURNING OFF MUCH OF THE SNOW                
SHOWERS.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY                 
POSTED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL ITS GIVEN EXPIRATION TIME.                           
OTHERWISE...FARTHER TO THE WEST...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO WESTERLY               
WINDS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FOR THE KEWEENAW               
PENINSULA.  WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THERE WITH NO                
CHANGES IN TIME.                                                                
AS THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE              
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA...WINDS WILL WEAKEN.  A SECONDARY              
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE OVER THE                  
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND RESIDE OVER THE FAR             
EASTERN U.P. BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO BRING ABOUT                      
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE REGION BY 16Z FRIDAY...WITH             
A LIKELY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE              
500MB CLOSED LOW WILL SKIM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY                   
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND                   
ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW GAINING STEAM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA             
FRIDAY EVENING.                                                                 
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED LOWERING POPS AND            
SKY COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS              
WELL AS LOWERING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.                               
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 425 PM EST)...               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM LES TO IMPACTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM                
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.                                            
FRI NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES               
BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY SATURDAY                    
MORNING. WNW CBL WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL NEAR -20C WILL KEEP              
LES GOING OVER THE WEST AND FOR LOCATIONS FROM MUNISING EASTWARD.               
THE 12Z LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW AND THE NAM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR                  
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV AGAIN NEAR ONTONAGON AND M-38 OVERNIGHT AS              
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AND WEAKEN. SIMILARLY...IN THE EAST A WEAKER            
WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW LAKE INDUCED TROFFING TO DEVELOP WITH                     
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES IF A MESO-LOW LIKE                   
FEATURE BRUSHES THE SHORELINE. FCST INCLUDES LES ACCUMULATION RANGE             
OF 1 TO 4 INCHES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH SHIFTING LES BAND(S)                    
POSITION IN WEAKER WIND REGIME.                                                 
SAT INTO SUN...THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT               
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND PATH OF THE SURFACE              
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE PREFERRED 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET                 
CONSENSUS BRINGS THE LOW TO NEAR CENTRAL WI BY 12Z/SUN AND TO THE N             
END OF LK HURON BY 00Z/MON. THE CANADIAN GLBL GEM CONTINUED TO                  
DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD PATH TOWARD WEST UPPER MI BY 12Z/SUN. STRONG             
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL FEATURE COUPLED 300 MB JET STRUCTURE               
WITH STRONG 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE                 
REGION. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS (WARM LAYER TO NEAR 2C BTWN 800-750 MB)              
AND GFS/ECMWF/UKMET 850-700 THICKNESS PROGS(INTO THE 1545-1560M                 
RANGE) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET INTO SRN UPPER MI. SINCE THE            
GFS OFTEN UNDERPLAYS ELEVATED WARM LAYER...A MENTION OF FZRA WAS                
ALSO INCLUDED SOUTH. AN INFLUX OF WARMER AIR ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI            
WHERE ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED COULD ALSO BRING A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.             
DRYING ABOVE 750 MB COULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF FZDZ SUN MORNING.              
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH NEARLY 4-5 G/KG JUST                 
UPSTREAM ON 295K SFC. MODELS QPF AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.00                  
INCH FROM LATE SAT INTO MIDDAY SUN WITH SNOWFALL/RATIO NEAR 10/1                
WOULD BRING SNOW TOTALS OF 6-10 INCHES. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR              
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH              
MAINLY WAA PCPN WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS            
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW LATE SUN AND STRONGER CAA MOVES IN. WITH                 
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON STORM PATH AND IMPACT ON PCPN TYPE AND                 
TIMING OF PCPN INTO LATE DAY 2...HELD OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL             
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.                                
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...STRONG CAA PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18C WILL          
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR                   
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NNW TO NW FLOW.                                            
TUE-THU...THE ECMWF TRENDED NORTHWARD AND HAS COME INTO BETTER                  
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH LATE TUE               
INTO TUE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS STILL LOW...BUT WITH               
COLDER REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...THE SHORTWAVE COULD               
ALSO BRING PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LES              
IN ITS WAKE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...UNDER CURRENT LAKE EFFECT REGIME...GENERAL WRLY FLOW WILL             
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER                   
SLIGHTLY FRI MORNING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY            
SOME FLURRIES. KCMX WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAMMERED BY LAKE EFFECT SHSN            
AND BLSN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...AS EVEN COLDER AIR                  
SPREADS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO BE                 
OPTIMISTIC FOR VIS TO IMPROVE OUT OF THE VLIFR/LIFR RANGE THRU FRI              
MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHSN/BLSN. THERE MAY BE SOME                  
IMPROVEMENT FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT            
LAKES. EVEN SO...MAY NOT SEE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
GALES OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE               
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY             
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION.             
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH             
MID MORNING FRIDAY.  STILL...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT             
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  BRIEF             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW 30 KNOTS.  FOLLOWING               
THAT WILL BE THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES              
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GALES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...                                                                     
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRI MIZ001>003.                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRI LSZ266-267.                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1220 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PERSISTENT LES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                   
SHORELINE AND NECESSARY HEADLINES.                                              
IR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS               
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE              
SCALE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE             
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.            
AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW               
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH                      
ONTARIO...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ROCKIES.                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE             
MAIN DIFFICULTIES INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF BANDS DUE TO MINOR WIND             
DIRECTION CHANGES AND WHETHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT ADDITIONAL             
HEADLINES. ALL MODELS AGREE ON WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW             
AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR              
SHORELINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THEY RANGE FROM -13              
TO -20C WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...GENERATING LOW LEVEL                 
CAPE. A SPOTTER FROM ROCKLAND REPORTED 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 11 PM            
TO 230 AM...WITH THE HOUGHTON POLICE REPORTING 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW            
FROM 7 PM THROUGH 245 AM AND LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW. KMQT RADAR IS                
RECEIVING RADAR RETURNS FROM A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE TWIN LAKES AREA             
AND A SECOND BAND OVER HOUGHTON. CONSIDERING THE TYPICAL BEAM                   
BLOCKAGE THAT OCCURS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THESE AREAS...THIS IS             
A STRONG SIGNAL THAT BANDS ARE QUITE DEVELOPED IF RETURNS ARE NOTED             
AT 9000 FEET. IN ADDITION...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF                            
FORECASTED...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST.              
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH PROMPTED A               
WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING DUE TO               
THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT                   
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR                     
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...AS CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG THERE                
AND SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH. CONVERGENCE SHOULD NOT               
BE QUITE AS HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WARNED COUNTIES              
AS DURING THE MORNING...AND THEREFORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE              
SLIGHTLY LESS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.                                          
THE EASTERN LAKESHORE WILL HAVE ITS OWN SHARE OF SNOWFALL.                      
CONVERGENCE ALSO LOOKS RATHER FAVORABLE ALONG THE PICTURED ROCKS                
SHORELINE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED              
FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES DUE TO THE SNOW THAT WILL FALL ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG BANDING SNOW                 
SHOULD OCCUR...THE ONE CONCERN IS THAT IF WINDS PICK UP ANY                     
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...THESE BANDS MAY OCCUR OVER WATER INSTEAD OF               
OVER LAND. THEN AGAIN...IF WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...THERE              
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND PARKING ITSELF ALONG THE SHORELINE AND             
CAUSING WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL.                                              
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT OUT             
EAST. ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE...LES WILL ONLY BE ENHANCED AS A              
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND ADDS A SYNOPTIC LIFTING                    
MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE 5000 FT AND                   
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RAMP UP. SIMILAR TO THE ISSUES OUT EAST                   
TODAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN EXACTLY WHERE              
BANDS DEVELOP AND DROP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW. IF WINDS PICK               
ONE DIRECTION AND STAY AT THAT DIRECTION...SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE            
RATHER HIGH IN THAT LOCATION.                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT...LES SHOULD RETURN OUT EAST AS WINDS BECOME                       
NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND MOIST AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. SNOW WILL                
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKESHORE...ALTHOUGH RATES SHOULD BE                
DROPPING BY THIS TIME.                                                          
BY LATE SATURDAY THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.            
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING THE STORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...AND             
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER SATURDAY MORNING...WITH               
THE ENTIRE AREA HAVING CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                  
RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MAY               
ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE              
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW. ONCE THE             
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...STRONG N-NW FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER              
THE LAKE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW INTO               
MONDAY.                                                                         
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MUCH DIFFERENT CONDITIONS AT CMX WHEN COMPARED TO SAW.                   
CMX...UNDER LAKE EFFECT SNOW THANKS TO WESTERLY WINDS...WILL REMAIN             
LIFR OR IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SHIFTS IN WINDS WILL MANDATE               
VIS AND CIGS AS WELL AS SNOW.  SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED MAINLY               
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER BEHIND THE               
NEXT SHORTWAVE.  AS FOR SAW...EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR             
OR JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN CMX...CEIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WESTERLY GALES OF 35-40 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE THIS             
MORNING ON LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING                    
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR WAWA ONTARIO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF             
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF             
THIS LOW...PERHAPS REACHING GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FRI MORNING...NW               
GALES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO               
FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE            
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS FAIRLY             
DEEP LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE TO GALES OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON                  
SUNDAY...THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE                        
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE WINDS BACK BELOW GALES...BRIEFLY.             
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT             
TO INCREASE BACK UP TO GALES...THEN DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW               
MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS             
     EVENING FOR MIZ006-007.                                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     MIZ084.                                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266-267.      
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                 
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.                     
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-264.             
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-263.                  
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR                   
     LSZ240>244.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TAG                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
706 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PERSISTENT LES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                   
SHORELINE AND NECESSARY HEADLINES.                                              
IR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS               
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE              
SCALE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE             
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.            
AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW               
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH                      
ONTARIO...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ROCKIES.                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE             
MAIN DIFFICULTIES INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF BANDS DUE TO MINOR WIND             
DIRECTION CHANGES AND WHETHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT ADDITIONAL             
HEADLINES. ALL MODELS AGREE ON WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW             
AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR              
SHORELINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THEY RANGE FROM -13              
TO -20C WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...GENERATING LOW LEVEL                 
CAPE. A SPOTTER FROM ROCKLAND REPORTED 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 11 PM            
TO 230 AM...WITH THE HOUGHTON POLICE REPORTING 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW            
FROM 7 PM THROUGH 245 AM AND LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW. KMQT RADAR IS                
RECEIVING RADAR RETURNS FROM A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE TWIN LAKES AREA             
AND A SECOND BAND OVER HOUGHTON. CONSIDERING THE TYPICAL BEAM                   
BLOCKAGE THAT OCCURS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THESE AREAS...THIS IS             
A STRONG SIGNAL THAT BANDS ARE QUITE DEVELOPED IF RETURNS ARE NOTED             
AT 9000 FEET. IN ADDITION...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF                            
FORECASTED...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST.              
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH PROMPTED A               
WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING DUE TO               
THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT                   
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR                     
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...AS CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG THERE                
AND SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH. CONVERGENCE SHOULD NOT               
BE QUITE AS HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WARNED COUNTIES              
AS DURING THE MORNING...AND THEREFORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE              
SLIGHTLY LESS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.                                          
THE EASTERN LAKESHORE WILL HAVE ITS OWN SHARE OF SNOWFALL.                      
CONVERGENCE ALSO LOOKS RATHER FAVORABLE ALONG THE PICTURED ROCKS                
SHORELINE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED              
FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES DUE TO THE SNOW THAT WILL FALL ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG BANDING SNOW                 
SHOULD OCCUR...THE ONE CONCERN IS THAT IF WINDS PICK UP ANY                     
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...THESE BANDS MAY OCCUR OVER WATER INSTEAD OF               
OVER LAND. THEN AGAIN...IF WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...THERE              
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND PARKING ITSELF ALONG THE SHORELINE AND             
CAUSING WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL.                                              
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT OUT             
EAST. ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE...LES WILL ONLY BE ENHANCED AS A              
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND ADDS A SYNOPTIC LIFTING                    
MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE 5000 FT AND                   
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RAMP UP. SIMILAR TO THE ISSUES OUT EAST                   
TODAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN EXACTLY WHERE              
BANDS DEVELOP AND DROP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW. IF WINDS PICK               
ONE DIRECTION AND STAY AT THAT DIRECTION...SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE            
RATHER HIGH IN THAT LOCATION.                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT...LES SHOULD RETURN OUT EAST AS WINDS BECOME                       
NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND MOIST AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. SNOW WILL                
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKESHORE...ALTHOUGH RATES SHOULD BE                
DROPPING BY THIS TIME.                                                          
BY LATE SATURDAY THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.            
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING THE STORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...AND             
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER SATURDAY MORNING...WITH               
THE ENTIRE AREA HAVING CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                  
RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MAY               
ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE              
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW. ONCE THE             
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...STRONG N-NW FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER              
THE LAKE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW INTO               
MONDAY.                                                                         
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR FOR CMX...DEPENDS ON HIGHLY ON WIND                
DIRECTION FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SAW WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH                     
TONIGHT...SINCE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED WILL HELP            
DRAG DRY AIR IN FROM THE PLAINS AND KEEP LAKE EFFECT BANDS WELL AWAY            
FROM THE SITE. AT CMX...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE THE             
NORTHWEST TODAY...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BANDS               
CURRENTLY OVER CMX SOUTHWARD. THUS THE FORECAST WILL RETAIN AN IDEA             
OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOT GETTING OUT OF MVFR SINCE SOME             
WEAKER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE. WINDS THEN BACK                
MORE WEST TO EVEN WSW THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP BRING THE                  
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BANDS BACK ACROSS CMX...AND HAVE INCLUDED                   
MENTION OF LIFR TO VLIFR VSBYS AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE SITE.              
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 06Z            
SHOULD PICK UP THE HEAVIER BANDS AND BRING THEM BACK INTO CMX AFTER             
08Z. CEILING HEIGHTS FOR CMX THROUGH THE FORECAST SHOULD GENERALLY              
BE LOW MVFR...BUT WHENEVER THE HEAVIER BANDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE             
SITE...EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DROP AT LEAST TO LIFR.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WESTERLY GALES OF 35-40 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE THIS             
MORNING ON LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING                    
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR WAWA ONTARIO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF             
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF             
THIS LOW...PERHAPS REACHING GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FRI MORNING...NW               
GALES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO               
FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE            
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS FAIRLY             
DEEP LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE TO GALES OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON                  
SUNDAY...THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE                        
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE WINDS BACK BELOW GALES...BRIEFLY.             
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT             
TO INCREASE BACK UP TO GALES...THEN DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW               
MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS             
     EVENING FOR MIZ006-007.                                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     MIZ084.                                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266-267.      
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                 
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.                     
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-264.             
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-263.                  
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR                   
     LSZ240>244.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TAG                                                                
MARINE/AVIATION...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
443 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PERSISTENT LES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                   
SHORELINE AND NECESSARY HEADLINES.                                              
IR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS               
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE              
SCALE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE             
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.            
AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW               
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH                      
ONTARIO...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ROCKIES.                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE             
MAIN DIFFICULTIES INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF BANDS DUE TO MINOR WIND             
DIRECTION CHANGES AND WHETHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL WARRANT ADDITIONAL             
HEADLINES. ALL MODELS AGREE ON WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW             
AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR              
SHORELINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THEY RANGE FROM -13              
TO -20C WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...GENERATING LOW LEVEL                 
CAPE. A SPOTTER FROM ROCKLAND REPORTED 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 11 PM            
TO 230 AM...WITH THE HOUGHTON POLICE REPORTING 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW            
FROM 7 PM THROUGH 245 AM AND LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW. KMQT RADAR IS                
RECEIVING RADAR RETURNS FROM A SNOW BAND ACROSS THE TWIN LAKES AREA             
AND A SECOND BAND OVER HOUGHTON. CONSIDERING THE TYPICAL BEAM                   
BLOCKAGE THAT OCCURS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THESE AREAS...THIS IS             
A STRONG SIGNAL THAT BANDS ARE QUITE DEVELOPED IF RETURNS ARE NOTED             
AT 9000 FEET. IN ADDITION...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF                            
FORECASTED...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST.              
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH PROMPTED A               
WINTER STORM WARNING INSTEAD OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING DUE TO               
THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT                   
CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR                     
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...AS CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG THERE                
AND SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH. CONVERGENCE SHOULD NOT               
BE QUITE AS HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WARNED COUNTIES              
AS DURING THE MORNING...AND THEREFORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE              
SLIGHTLY LESS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.                                          
THE EASTERN LAKESHORE WILL HAVE ITS OWN SHARE OF SNOWFALL.                      
CONVERGENCE ALSO LOOKS RATHER FAVORABLE ALONG THE PICTURED ROCKS                
SHORELINE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WAS ISSUED              
FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES DUE TO THE SNOW THAT WILL FALL ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG BANDING SNOW                 
SHOULD OCCUR...THE ONE CONCERN IS THAT IF WINDS PICK UP ANY                     
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...THESE BANDS MAY OCCUR OVER WATER INSTEAD OF               
OVER LAND. THEN AGAIN...IF WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...THERE              
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND PARKING ITSELF ALONG THE SHORELINE AND             
CAUSING WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL.                                              
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT OUT             
EAST. ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE...LES WILL ONLY BE ENHANCED AS A              
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND ADDS A SYNOPTIC LIFTING                    
MECHANISM. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE 5000 FT AND                   
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RAMP UP. SIMILAR TO THE ISSUES OUT EAST                   
TODAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN EXACTLY WHERE              
BANDS DEVELOP AND DROP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW. IF WINDS PICK               
ONE DIRECTION AND STAY AT THAT DIRECTION...SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE            
RATHER HIGH IN THAT LOCATION.                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT...LES SHOULD RETURN OUT EAST AS WINDS BECOME                       
NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND MOIST AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. SNOW WILL                
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKESHORE...ALTHOUGH RATES SHOULD BE                
DROPPING BY THIS TIME.                                                          
BY LATE SATURDAY THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.            
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING THE STORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...AND             
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER SATURDAY MORNING...WITH               
THE ENTIRE AREA HAVING CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                  
RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MAY               
ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE              
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW. ONCE THE             
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...STRONG N-NW FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER              
THE LAKE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW INTO               
MONDAY.                                                                         
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT REGIME HAS OCCURRED AS COLD FRONT HAS NOW             
CLEARED UPPER MI. FOR KSAW...THIS MEANS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
PREVAIL UNDER WRLY FLOW FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. A FEW                             
-SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT VIS BLO VFR.                
WHILE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO HIGH MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES...IT WILL            
NOT BE INCLUDED GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS                       
DOMINATING. AT KCMX...IT`S A DIFFERENT STORY AS WNW WINDS AND                   
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR LEAD TO INCREASING INTENSITY OF LES OFF LAKE            
SUPERIOR. A DISTURBANCE HEADING FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION                
SHOULD RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND              
THU MORNING. LOOK FOR VIS GENERALLY IN THE IFR RANGE TO DECREASE TO             
LIFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPS. WINDS GUSTING              
TO AROUND 30KT WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN WHICH WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE            
OF FACTOR WITH VIS RESTRICTION AS NEW SNOW ACCUMULATES. WHILE THERE             
MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THU AFTN...HEAVIER SNOW MAY DEVELOP AGAIN               
LATE AFTN/EVENING AS FOCUSED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER WRN LAKE               
SUPERIOR LEADS TO THE FORMATION OF MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS.                     
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY LIFT JUST N OF KCMX LATE IN THE EVENING...                 
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WESTERLY GALES OF 35-40 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE THIS             
MORNING ON LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING                    
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR WAWA ONTARIO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF             
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF             
THIS LOW...PERHAPS REACHING GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FRI MORNING...NW               
GALES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO               
FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE            
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS FAIRLY             
DEEP LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE TO GALES OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN ON                  
SUNDAY...THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE                        
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE WINDS BACK BELOW GALES...BRIEFLY.             
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT             
TO INCREASE BACK UP TO GALES...THEN DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW               
MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>003.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS             
     EVENING FOR MIZ006-007.                                                    
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
     MIZ084.                                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266-267.      
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                 
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.                     
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-264.             
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263.                      
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR                   
     LSZ240>244.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TAG                                                                
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1234 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST)...                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS EXPECTED INCREASE IN LES OVERNIGHT/THU.                    
OF MOST IMPORTANCE TO LES FCST IS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING              
ESE THRU NE ND INTO MN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. AS             
THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ESE...00Z RUC/NAM SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP                
LAYER FORCING SPREADING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN 06-09Z AND                  
REACHING ERN LAKE SUPERIOR 09-12Z. UPSTREAM 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED            
850MB TEMP OF -19C...INVERSION AROUND 825MB (5KFT MSL) AND A MOIST              
PROFILE THRU 500MB. WOULD EXPECT A RAISING OF THE INVERSION AS                  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND THAT IS WHAT RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF HVY             
LES FROM ROUGHLY THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS N THRU THE KEWEENAW...                 
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS IN             
THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. IN THE GRID FCST UPDATE THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN             
ISSUED...BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EDGE OF WARNING                    
CRITERIA (8 INCHES/12HRS) FOR THE 06-12Z AND 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME                 
COMBINED. RUC/NAM SUGGEST LAKE INDUCED TROFFING MAY FOCUS                       
CONVERGENCE INTO THE AREA BTWN ROCKLAND AND PAINESDALE WHICH IS                 
QUITE REASONABLE. HAVE THUS INDICATED THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS            
THERE (NEAR 8 INCHES FROM 06-18Z). ALSO...INCLUDED BLSN WITH W WINDS            
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. TO THE E...WINDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A W              
COMPONENT THAT ONLY THE SHORELINE AREAS FROM AROUND GRAND MARAIS EWD            
SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY DEVELOPING LES. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS              
THERE FOR LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN              
THAT LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO WIND WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH            
MAIN LES JUST OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS HELD OFF ON A HEADLINE THERE FOR              
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THU)...                                                
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST WEATHER MAPS...THE SURFACE LOW WAS                  
CENTERED NEAR CMX.  LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMG...PLENTY OF DRY              
AIR WAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE MUCH OF THE MOIST AIR WAS                 
POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.  THE 500MB                  
TROUGH WAS SCOOTING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.  AFTER SOME BRIEF ZONAL             
FLOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT...A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH IS FIGURED TO SLIDE              
IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                                              
DRIER AIR HAMPERED MUCH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE UPPER                    
PENINSULA TODAY AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED                        
TEMPERATURES.  BOTH MNM AND ESC GOT THE MID 30S F.  EVEN AS FAR                 
NORTH AS SAW THIS AFTERNOON WE WERE ABLE GET TO 30F...BRINGING ABOUT            
-FZDZ IN THE METAR.                                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER KEWEENAW...N/S HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON ARE                 
STILL A GOOD BET FOR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE             
WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW.  AT CMX SPECIFICALLY...WHERE WINDS HAVE                
TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY AT 19Z...SHUTTING OFF MUCH OF THE SNOW BEFORE             
BECOMING WESTERLY BRINGING BACK MORE SNOW SHOWERS.  A LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                       
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM LES OVER NW UPPER MI TO SNOW POTENTIAL            
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH ADDITIONAL LES NEXT WEEK.                
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING              
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL                
MODELS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM WERE PREFERRED WITH THIS FEATURE               
COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. WRLY FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE INTO NW                 
UPPER MI. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WITH            
HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BOOST LES SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY             
BTWN 06Z-18Z/FRI. THE DEEP COLD AIR (850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C AND 700             
MB TEMPS AROUND -26C) WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH LAKE              
INDUCED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. THE HEIGHT AND                 
DEPTH OF THE -12C TO -17C LAYER IS A BIT LOW/SHALLOW BUT SHOULD                 
STILL ALLOW FOR DECENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. THE LOCAL HIGH RES                     
WRF/ARW...CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE                      
PERSISTENT AREA OF 950 MB CONVERGENCE WOULD ALIGN FROM THE APOSTLE              
ISLANDS TOWARD NRN ONTONAGON COUNTY AND NEAR M-38 WHILE THE NAM...AS            
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL CONV            
FARTHER NORTH(FROM KCMX TO KP59). EITHER SCENARIO WOULD EVENTUALLY              
BRING VEERING WINDS WITH THE CONV AXIS SAGGING SOUTH.                           
SO...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL                  
RESPOND AND WHERE/WHEN ANY DOMINANT BANDS WILL SET UP AND HOW LONG              
THEY WOULD PERSIST AT ANY LOCATION. SO...THE FCST KEEPS MORE                    
CONSERVATIVE  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE WITH 12 HOUR               
AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH BAND(S)                     
PLACEMENT THE LES ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED AND/OR UPGRADED.                   
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY COLD AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...THE               
LES WILL PERSIST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS DRIER MOVE IN...INVERSION               
HEIGHTS LOWER...ACYC FLOW DEVELOPS AND WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS            
BACK WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING THROUGH.                                         
SATURDAY INTO MON...THE FCST LEANS MORE TOWARD HPC PREFERRED 00Z                
ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSELY SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. THE                    
12Z UKMET DEEPENS THE LOW A BIT SOONER AND WAS FASTER MOVING IT NE              
OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO MON. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS              
THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS A BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT               
PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE               
LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD LAKE HURON BY MON MORNING AS               
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES FROM THE SW AND SRN             
PLAINS LIFTS QUICKLY NE. POPS WERE INCREASED WITH EXPECTATION THAT              
EVENTUALLY LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS UNCERTAINTY             
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE RESOLVED. MODERATE TO            
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTH             
UPPER MI FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N OR NW FLOW.                                 
TUE-WED...ECMWF 850 MB TEMPS AOB -15C ALONG WITH NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP            
LES GOING OVER NORTH UPPER MICHIGAN. THERE ALSO MAY BE THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN               
NW FLOW PATTERN. THIS WOULD BOOST AND/OR SHIFT LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND            
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...HIGH                   
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AT DAYS              
6/7.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT REGIME HAS OCCURRED AS COLD FRONT HAS NOW             
CLEARED UPPER MI. FOR KSAW...THIS MEANS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
PREVAIL UNDER WRLY FLOW FOR THIS FCST PERIOD. A FEW                             
-SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT VIS BLO VFR.                
WHILE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO HIGH MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES...IT WILL            
NOT BE INCLUDED GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS                       
DOMINATING. AT KCMX...IT`S A DIFFERENT STORY AS WNW WINDS AND                   
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR LEAD TO INCREASING INTENSITY OF LES OFF LAKE            
SUPERIOR. A DISTURBANCE HEADING FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION                
SHOULD RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND              
THU MORNING. LOOK FOR VIS GENERALLY IN THE IFR RANGE TO DECREASE TO             
LIFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPS. WINDS GUSTING              
TO AROUND 30KT WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN WHICH WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE            
OF FACTOR WITH VIS RESTRICTION AS NEW SNOW ACCUMULATES. WHILE THERE             
MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THU AFTN...HEAVIER SNOW MAY DEVELOP AGAIN               
LATE AFTN/EVENING AS FOCUSED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER WRN LAKE               
SUPERIOR LEADS TO THE FORMATION OF MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS.                     
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY LIFT JUST N OF KCMX LATE IN THE EVENING...                 
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP INTO EASTERN              
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AS THE              
LOW CROSSES...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH GALES              
TO 35 KT ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE EVENING...THEN OVER                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE NEAR 45 KTS EARLY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.            
OTHERWISE...A BREAK FROM THE GALES IS FIGURED THURSDAY EVENING                  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BRIEF                 
REAMERGENCE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THEN...A DEEPENING LOW WILL            
NEAR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE               
POTENTIAL FOR GALES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 4 PM EST THU MIZ001>003-084.             
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THU LSZ266-267.                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THU LSZ265.                                    
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST THU LSZ264.                                   
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM THU LSZ162-263.                                    
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM EST THU LSZ248>251.                         
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM EST THU LSZ243-244.                         
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THU LSZ240>242.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATON...ROLFSON                                                               
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
306 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM FOR                
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                    
IN THE NEAR TERM...SKIES CLEARING QUITE NICELY IN THE WAKE OF THE               
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT A LITTLE SNOW TO SOUTHERN                  
MINNESOTA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE CHILLY...BUT THE                   
WINDS...WHICH HAVE REMAINED UP OVERNIGHT...HAVE SOMEWHAT PREVENTED              
A TOTAL BOTTOM OUT IN TEMPERATURES. DEW POINTS SHOULD CRASH LATER               
TODAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MAKES A CLOSER                     
APPROACH. SKIES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT                          
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS.               
THE BIG CHANGE BEGINS TO HAPPEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS                     
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP RATHER QUICKLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE                      
DEPARTING HIGH...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN                        
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION...AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE                 
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS REFLECTED IN THE               
VERY STRONG ISENTROPICS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL                   
FUEL THE STORM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...               
ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM NOSE. A MIX SEEMS                
INEVITABLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH                    
MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA /INTERSTATE 90               
CORRIDOR/...AND SLEET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF              
THE TWIN CITIES...AND ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...SHOULD SEE ALL                 
SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE TWIN CITIES IS IN THAT                
QUESTION MARK ZONE...WHERE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW                 
TRACKS...THERE MIGHT BE MORE SLEET THAN SNOW. AS A RESULT...WE                  
HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SLEET ON SATURDAY EVENING TO THE AREA                   
INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES. SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK                   
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST                    
AREA...WHERE CLOSE TO A FOOT AMOUNTS LOOK POSSIBLE. WITH SO MANY                
QUESTION MARKS REMAINING...FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING              
WEATHER TYPE...QPF...OR SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS...WHICH WERE LARGELY              
SUFFICIENT TO ILLUSTRATE WHAT THE CURRENT MODEL DATA ARE SAYING.                
THE MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO BRING THE MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP TYPES A               
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY THERE.                                
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOULD LARGELY BE DONE BY MONDAY...LEAVING A BRIEF              
DRY SPELL...BEFORE A CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING                     
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHTER SNOW TO THE AREA.                                     
THE BIG QUESTIONS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVE AROUND              
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ILLUSTRATE A NICE WARM UP                
INTO TUESDAY. HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BIT INTO THIS AS OF YET...BUT                 
DID WARM UP TEMPERATURES A SHADE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LATEST RUC MODEL RUN FROM 00Z CARRIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY EASTWARD                
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 09Z WITH STRONG             
DRYING INDICATED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN LINE WITH A LOOP            
OF MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS WELL AS IR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS COLDER             
TOPS MOVING OUT OF EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A           
RISK OF LGT SNOW WITH LOCAL VISBYS FROM 5 TO 6 MILES AT KEAU...KMSP             
AND KRNH THROUGH ABOUT 07Z WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF                
SITES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-                   
     CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-                
     ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-                    
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-                    
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-               
     STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW                
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-               
     RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/WET                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1051 PM CST THU NOV 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS IOWA WITH A                     
STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE. SOME UPGLIDE OVER THIS SURFACE                 
FEATURE AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK FULL WIND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS               
LED TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF POSSIBLY AN INCH. SECONDARY COLD                   
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH                   
GRADUAL CLEARING STILL LOOKS TO YIELD NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES BY                 
ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS NEAR DAYBREAK. MAIN NCEP OPERATIONAL                
MODELS /NAM AND GFS/ AT 00Z HAVE COME IN MARKEDLY SIMILAR TO THEIR              
18Z RUNS. THE 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS ALSO SIMILAR TO              
ITS PRIOR RUNS. PATH AND EVOLUTION OF 850MB AND 700MB LOWS AND                  
ROUGH ESTIMATES ON MEAN QPF GIVEN MODEL PARAMETERS ARE ALL SIMILAR              
AT LEAST TO THE NAKED EYE. MID-SHIFT WILL BE TAKING A MORE IN                   
DEPTH LOOK AT IT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 904 PM CST THU NOV 29 2007/                                             
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI                 
THIS EVENING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. 285K THETA                
SURFACE SHOWS SATURATION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHEAST MN BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EASTWARD. SREF/RUC                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING. INCREASED POPS                
TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE TWIN                 
CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST SHOW THE CEILINGS                
CONTINUING TO FALL WITH KATV NOW SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.                   
EXPECT SNOW FALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. HIGH PRESSURE TO               
FOLLOW IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER              
ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT AGAIN FRIDAY                    
NIGHT. UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKING BETTER FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. 12Z                
GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST ON TOP OF ONE ANOTHER FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT                 
WHILE THE SREF AND GEFS ARE ALIGNED. STRONG WAA FOR SATURDAY WITH               
SNOW DEVELOPING SW IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHEAST.              
SINGLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET                   
BECOMING LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND FOR A TIME SATURDAY                
NIGHT. IN ADDITION BEST LI`S ARE BETWEEN 0 AND -2 ACROSS FAR                    
SOUTHERN MN ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 750 MB. FOR NOW HAVE                 
INTRODUCED SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR SOUTHERN MN.                    
SREF/GEFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE ON THE WARM AIR PUSH. FWF AND PREFERRED             
ICE GROWTH FROM THE SREF TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THE BEST                   
SNOW ATTM FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO                    
NORTHERN WI. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A CLOSE LOW AT 700 MB PASSING               
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NE MN. THIS WOULD GIVE YOU MORE                     
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BEING FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. FOR NOW                  
COLLABORATION WAS TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...WITH EVERYONE                 
ON BOARD...FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT                 
THE DETAILS AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...                     
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. A CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO PASS US TUESDAY                 
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LATEST RUC MODEL RUN FROM 00Z CARRIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY EASTWARD                
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 09Z WITH STRONG             
DRYING INDICATED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN LINE WITH A LOOP            
OF MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS WELL AS IR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS COLDER             
TOPS MOVING OUT OF EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A           
RISK OF LGT SNOW WITH LOCAL VISBYS FROM 5 TO 6 MILES AT KEAU...KMSP             
AND KRNH THROUGH ABOUT 07Z WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF                
SITES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-                   
     CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-                
     ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-                    
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-                    
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-               
     STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW                
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-               
     RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
904 PM CST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI                 
THIS EVENING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. 285K THETA                
SURFACE SHOWS SATURATION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHEAST MN BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EASTWARD. SREF/RUC                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING. INCREASED POPS                
TO LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE TWIN                 
CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST SHOW THE CEILINGS                
CONTINUING TO FALL WITH KATV NOW SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.                   
EXPECT SNOW FALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. HIGH PRESSURE TO               
FOLLOW IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER              
ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY TONIGHT BUT AGAIN FRIDAY                    
NIGHT. UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKING BETTER FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. 12Z                
GFS AND ECMWF ALMOST ON TOP OF ONE ANOTHER FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT                 
WHILE THE SREF AND GEFS ARE ALIGNED. STRONG WAA FOR SATURDAY WITH               
SNOW DEVELOPING SW IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHEAST.              
SINGLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET                   
BECOMING LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND FOR A TIME SATURDAY                
NIGHT. IN ADDITION BEST LI`S ARE BETWEEN 0 AND -2 ACROSS FAR                    
SOUTHERN MN ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 750 MB. FOR NOW HAVE                 
INTRODUCED SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR SOUTHERN MN.                    
SREF/GEFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE ON THE WARM AIR PUSH. FWF AND PREFERRED             
ICE GROWTH FROM THE SREF TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THE BEST                   
SNOW ATTM FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO                    
NORTHERN WI. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A CLOSE LOW AT 700 MB PASSING               
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NE MN. THIS WOULD GIVE YOU MORE                     
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BEING FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. FOR NOW                  
COLLABORATION WAS TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...WITH EVERYONE                 
ON BOARD...FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT                 
THE DETAILS AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...                     
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. A CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO PASS US TUESDAY                 
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
POWERFUL JET CORE OF 170 KNOTS EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA                 
AND IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC                    
FORCING IS OCCURRING ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET MAX AND IS                
SETTING OFF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF MSP WITH               
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS QUITE WIDESPREAD FROM NEAR KMKT WEST TO THE                
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. VERTICAL MOTION DROPS OFF QUICKLY AFTER 06Z                
THIS EVENING SO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-                   
     CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-                
     ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-                    
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-                    
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-               
     STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW                
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY             
     NIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-               
     RUSK-ST. CROIX.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/99                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
100 PM PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                   
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT FOR TODAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS BEYOND THE 1ST PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL ICE               
STORM AFFECTING THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND LINGERING                  
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. POTENT UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE               
WESTERN CONUS WITH WIDESPREAD 60 TO 120M HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH              
A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS            
REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY AND IT`S NOT SO MUCH              
OF A QUESTION OF IF IT WILL OCCUR...BUT WHEN AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE.              
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...FREEZING RAIN               
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR               
AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUNDING PROFILES                
INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SLEET...BUT QUICKLY CHANGE            
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS TOP DOWN APPROACH INDICATES WARM WEDGE ALOFT           
WILL DEFINITELY EXCEED 3 DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR COMPLETE              
MELTING. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD EASILY REACH ONE QUARTER TO THREE                 
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE GOOD NEWS...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
QUICKLY RISE ACROSS SERN HALF THE CWFA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST              
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MELT             
SOME OF THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...PRECIP               
SHOULD REMAIN A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER. NOT            
EXPECTING MUCH SNOWFALL UP THERE...AND TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY GO ABOVE             
FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GO BACK BELOW AND CHANGE BACK              
OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR SATURATES THE COLUMN. THUS WOULD                 
EXPECT THE WINTER EVENT TO LAST A BIT LONGER UP THERE.                          
WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING FINAL DECISIONS REGARDING UPGRADING              
THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN EFFECT. WILL LIKELY            
BE UPGRADING TO A COMBINATION OF ICE STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE AREA.            
TIMING OF BEGINNING AND ENDING WILL ALSO BE INCORPORATED INTO NEW               
WSW HEADLINES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AM EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH A                 
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING IN...INITIALLY AT KLNK                
BY 8Z AND KOMA AND KOFK BY 10Z. MAYBE ABOUT TWO HOURS OF SLEET...               
THEN CHANGING OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN. CIGS FALL RAPIDLY ONCE                 
THE PRECIP MOVES IN...GOING FROM OVC250 CURRENTLY TO AOB OVC010                 
AFT 10-12Z. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY...          
AND SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING TO AOA 20KT BY 12Z.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
OBVIOUSLY PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS WITH SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND               
SATURDAY IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND FOCUS...AND LITTLE/NO                 
CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED. SINCE MAIN EVENT WILL PROBABLY               
BE IN 09Z-00Z PERIOD ON SATURDAY...NO UPGRADE YET TO WATCH WILL BE              
MADE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT COULD EASILY SURPASS 0.5                
INCHES...AND POSSIBLY REACH 1 INCH IN SPOTS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CROSS 1 INCH. IT WAS NOTED ON LAST NIGHTS                
UA ANLYS THAT THE 850 MB DWPT AT TUCSON WAS 11 DEG C SO NOT ONLY                
WILL THIS SYSTEM TAP GULF MOISTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE                   
BRINGING AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT AS WELL.                                
THUS...IN THE SHORTER TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODIFIED ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT SHALLOW COLD/DRY AIR ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WAS               
NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE 00Z GFS AND EVEN 06Z NAM...BOTH OF WHICH                
WERE TOO WARM. LATEST RUC HANDLED IT BETTER AND IT WAS ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES COOLER BY 18Z. HRLY TEMPS/MAX TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED THAT               
WAY...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT. FOR                        
TONIGHT...VERY STRONG WARM ADVCTN DEVELOPS WITH NAM/ECMWF                       
FORECASTING AN 850 MB JET OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z SAT.               
IN FACT...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS INCREASED THIS JET INTO THE 70-75 KT             
RANGE DURING THE DAY SAT...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FREEZING RAIN OR A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX IS                
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR MUCH OF THE PCPN UNTIL TEMPS CAN WARM               
ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WON/T BE UNTIL SOMETIME                    
SATURDAY AFT 12Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH SUCH A COLD/DRY AIRMASS TO               
BEGIN THIS EVENT...SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN FLY IN               
THE PCPN OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK BEING HOW MUCH SLEET WILL FALL OR                 
MIX IN. ALTHOUGH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE A            
BIT TOO WARM FOR SNOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A CHC OF IT               
TO BEGIN THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH QUITE BRIEF SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WL               
MENTION SOME 1/2-1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH TNGT TAPERING                  
OFF TO ONE/TWO TENTHS ALONG PLATTE RIVER AND NOTHING S OF THERE                 
INCLUDING 4 SW IA COUNTIES. /DID ALSO LINGER SOME 1-2 INCH                      
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN 12Z-18Z PD FAR N/.                                        
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...QUESTION TURNS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL                
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. 03Z SREF...ENSEMBLES...KEPT SFC                     
TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 OVER ALL ZONES THROUGH 12Z BUT BY 18Z LIFTED              
FREEZING LINE TO AROUND A OFK-NRN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IA LINE AND              
TO THE SD BORDER BY 21 AND 00Z.  GENERALLY FOLLOWING THAT THINKING              
LED TO A SPLIT OF MORNING GRIDS TO MENTION RAIN AS PREVAILING PCPN              
TYPE S OF PLATTE RIVER AFT 15Z AND FROM OLU-HNR IN 18Z-21Z PD WITH              
RAIN ALONG AND S OF THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS UP INTO THE                
MID/UPPER 40 RANGE FAR SRN NEBR ZONES AND LOW/MID 40S OVR FAR SRN               
IA ZONES AS EVEN ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM BRING WEDGE OF VERY WARM 850                
MB AIR INTO SERN CWA BY 00Z SUN. AGAIN WILL BE ADJUSTING HRLY                   
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OCCURRING CLOSER TO 00Z INSTEAD OF NORMAL                 
DIURNAL TRENDS. WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED 850 MB JET...WOULD               
NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS ARE EVEN WARMER THAN THAT FAR S. BOTH                 
NAM AND GFS FORECAST STRONG MID LVL DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB                 
PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM AS FAR NE AS THE OMAHA AREA BY                         
18Z...SHOWN NICELY ON CROSS SECTIONS. THIS COULD SHUT MUCH OF THE               
PCPN DOWN TO EITHER LGT R- OR DRIZZLE...PSBLY STILL FREEZING FAR                
N...LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL NEED MONITORING               
IN LATER FORECASTS IF TRENDS PERSIST...BUT KEPT MEASURABLE POPS                 
QUITE HIGH YET IN 18Z-06Z PD...ALTHOUGH DID START TO MENTION                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE SOME SECTIONS AFT 06Z. BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY                   
THOUGH SAT NGT INTO SUN AM AS STILL SOME DECENT FORCING POSSIBLE                
AS MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS. PROBABLE STRATO CU BEHIND SYSTEM ON               
SUNDAY COULD LIMIT HEATING...SPCLY NRN ZONES AND TRIMMED BACK                   
HIGHS SOME.                                                                     
AS STATED EARLIER...LTL/NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED...MAINLY TO                 
THE PD BEYOND TUE. ECMWF/GFS BOTH LEANED TOWARD MILDER TEMPS                    
MONDAY AND BOOSTED MOST AREAS. SOME QUESTION TUE AS ECMWF PUSHES                
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT INTO THE CWA WHILE 00Z GFS CONTD QUITE WARM.                
COMPROMISED A BIT AND BUMPED UP SWRN/CNTRL ZONES A FEW DEGREES.                 
ALSO BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTED POPS MAY NEED INTRODUCING BY                  
NEXT THURSDAY AS A DECENT TROUGH CROSSES AREA.                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
NIL AVN CONCERNS FOR ALL TAF SITE WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL            
THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z. AT THAT TIME...SFC WINDS SHIFT FM NORTH TO                
E/SE WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING MOD-SVR TURB/LLWS               
TWD 01/06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING LLWS AT THIS POINT THUS NO                 
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING              
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-                
     088>093.                                                                   
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING              
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1137 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR FREEZING                  
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND              
SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. BY MORNING               
THE SLEET WILL COME TO AN END BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE                   
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE                   
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND CEILINGS WILL BE IFR OR LIFR IN THE                    
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...RIGHT UP FRONT...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL                       
CONTINUE AS IS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING...                 
IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER FOR SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWFA. THE              
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA WILL EXPERIENCE ICE...BUT                    
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT...THE WIDESPREAD                   
COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH GETS THE WORD OUT AND EVEN AN                
UPGRADE ON THE DAYSHIFT WILL GIVE 8 TO 12+ HOURS OF LEAD                        
TIME...AND HOPEFULLY GIVE THE BEST DEPICTION OF THE POTENTIAL                   
SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT.                                                          
RIGHT NOW...ARCTIC LIKE AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO NEBRASKA BEHIND                
SURGING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW SOLIDLY IN THE TEENS OVER              
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S IN                
KANSAS. BELIEVE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                
THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIR...WITH 1032MB SURFACE PRESSURES INTO              
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CLOUDS ALSO NOW SLIDING OVER THE CWFA. WINDS                 
PROGGED TO TURN NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY AS WELL. THOSE TWO FACTORS                 
DON/T SUPPORT MUCH WARMING...AND HAVE LOWERED TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS.               
THAT ALSO MEANS THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISLODGE TONIGHT.                
THE MAIN SHOW IS TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT                 
PRECIPITATION PHASE IS PARAMOUNT...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT                   
ASSOCIATED WITH MASSIVE WARM ADVECTION IS ANOTHER BIG POINT.                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP TO 4+ STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE                 
NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER...AND ABOVE 1 INCH. SUCH ANOMALOUS                    
INGREDIENTS CAN RESULT IN ANOMALOUS RESULTS (SEE ICE STORM                      
2006). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING...ROUGHLY THE                   
SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWFA WILL START AS FREEZING RAIN AND THEN                   
TURN TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUARTER OF                    
THE CWFA WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE                
TURNING TO RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY CATCH                
SOME SLEET AS WARM LAYER DOESN/T REALLY GET DEEP ENOUGH TIL MID                 
TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA COULD VERY WELL                 
START AS SLEET...THEN MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN GO TO                   
FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAVORS A COOLER RUC AND                    
NAME SOLUTION. GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS ALL THE                     
MODELS SHOW QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCHES...CLOSER TO 0.50 INCHES...             
MUCH OF WHICH WILL FALL AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WOULD                   
BE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST CWFA. SUCH AMOUNTS OF ICE OF                    
WOULD NOT ONLY HALT TRAVEL NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND...BUT                 
COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES/POLES.                          
ABOUT THE ONLY PROMISING NEWS WITH THIS EVENT IS IT SHOULD BE                   
QUICK HITTING...ROUGHLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO                  
MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOK LIKELY                  
FROM ABOUT 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH NOONISH...WITH THE PRECIPITATION               
ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER INTERESTING POINT...IS              
WE ARE FORECASTING HUGE WARMING...INTO THE 50S...IN THE SOUTHEAST               
CWFA. THAT WILL RAPIDLY MELT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION...AND THAT TOO                
COULD LIMIT ICE IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA.                                   
AGAIN...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE EVENT OVER THE CWFA                 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST ICE                 
AMOUNTS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY...TO                     
HASTINGS...TO GENEVA. ICE ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA COULD EXCEED                
ONE QUARTER INCH. LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE...THROUGH STILL                         
SIGNIFICANT...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA.                    
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY             
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                    
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY             
     MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
609 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...12Z TAF. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO START THE PERIOD               
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY                 
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH                 
THE DAY...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY AT 15K FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH                   
SUNSET. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER THIS EVENING AS A WINTER STORM                 
DRAWS NEARER. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL START TO FALL               
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE               
IFR RANGE OR LOWER.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...RIGHT UP FRONT...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL                       
CONTINUE AS IS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING...                 
IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER FOR SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWFA. THE              
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA WILL EXPERIENCE ICE...BUT                    
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT...THE WIDESPREAD                   
COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH GETS THE WORD OUT AND EVEN AN                
UPGRADE ON THE DAYSHIFT WILL GIVE 8 TO 12+ HOURS OF LEAD                        
TIME...AND HOPEFULLY GIVE THE BEST DEPICTION OF THE POTENTIAL                   
SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT.                                                          
RIGHT NOW...ARCTIC LIKE AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO NEBRASKA BEHIND                
SURGING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW SOLIDLY IN THE TEENS OVER              
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S IN                
KANSAS. BELIEVE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                
THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIR...WITH 1032MB SURFACE PRESSURES INTO              
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CLOUDS ALSO NOW SLIDING OVER THE CWFA. WINDS                 
PROGGED TO TURN NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY AS WELL. THOSE TWO FACTORS                 
DON/T SUPPORT MUCH WARMING...AND HAVE LOWERED TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS.               
THAT ALSO MEANS THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISLODGE TONIGHT.                
THE MAIN SHOW IS TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT                 
PRECIPITATION PHASE IS PARAMOUNT...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT                   
ASSOCIATED WITH MASSIVE WARM ADVECTION IS ANOTHER BIG POINT.                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP TO 4+ STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE                 
NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER...AND ABOVE 1 INCH. SUCH ANOMALOUS                    
INGREDIENTS CAN RESULT IN ANOMALOUS RESULTS (SEE ICE STORM                      
2006). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING...ROUGHLY THE                   
SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWFA WILL START AS FREEZING RAIN AND THEN                   
TURN TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUARTER OF                    
THE CWFA WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE                
TURNING TO RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY CATCH                
SOME SLEET AS WARM LAYER DOESN/T REALLY GET DEEP ENOUGH TIL MID                 
TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA COULD VERY WELL                 
START AS SLEET...THEN MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN GO TO                   
FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAVORS A COOLER RUC AND                    
NAME SOLUTION. GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS ALL THE                     
MODELS SHOW QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCHES...CLOSER TO 0.50 INCHES...             
MUCH OF WHICH WILL FALL AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WOULD                   
BE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST CWFA. SUCH AMOUNTS OF ICE OF                    
WOULD NOT ONLY HALT TRAVEL NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND...BUT                 
COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES/POLES.                          
ABOUT THE ONLY PROMISING NEWS WITH THIS EVENT IS IT SHOULD BE                   
QUICK HITTING...ROUGHLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO                  
MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOK LIKELY                  
FROM ABOUT 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH NOONISH...WITH THE PRECIPITATION               
ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER INTERESTING POINT...IS              
WE ARE FORECASTING HUGE WARMING...INTO THE 50S...IN THE SOUTHEAST               
CWFA. THAT WILL RAPIDLY MELT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION...AND THAT TOO                
COULD LIMIT ICE IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA.                                   
AGAIN...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE EVENT OVER THE CWFA                 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST ICE                 
AMOUNTS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY...TO                     
HASTINGS...TO GENEVA. ICE ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA COULD EXCEED                
ONE QUARTER INCH. LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE...THROUGH STILL                         
SIGNIFICANT...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA.                    
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING              
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                            
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING              
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...KB                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...MORITZ                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
350 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBVIOUSLY PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS WITH SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND               
SATURDAY IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND FOCUS...AND LITTLE/NO                 
CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED. SINCE MAIN EVENT WILL PROBABLY               
BE IN 09Z-00Z PERIOD ON SATURDAY...NO UPGRADE YET TO WATCH WILL BE              
MADE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT COULD EASILY SURPASS 0.5                
INCHES...AND POSSIBLY REACH 1 INCH IN SPOTS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CROSS 1 INCH. IT WAS NOTED ON LAST NIGHTS                
UA ANLYS THAT THE 850 MB DWPT AT TUCSON WAS 11 DEG C SO NOT ONLY                
WILL THIS SYSTEM TAP GULF MOISTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE                   
BRINGING AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT AS WELL.                                
THUS...IN THE SHORTER TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODIFIED ARCTIC                  
AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT SHALLOW COLD/DRY AIR ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WAS               
NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE 00Z GFS AND EVEN 06Z NAM...BOTH OF WHICH                
WERE TOO WARM. LATEST RUC HANDLED IT BETTER AND IT WAS ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES COOLER BY 18Z. HRLY TEMPS/MAX TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED THAT               
WAY...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT. FOR                        
TONIGHT...VERY STRONG WARM ADVCTN DEVELOPS WITH NAM/ECMWF                       
FORECASTING AN 850 MB JET OF 40-45 KTS ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z SAT.               
IN FACT...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS INCREASED THIS JET INTO THE 70-75 KT             
RANGE DURING THE DAY SAT...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FREEZING RAIN OR A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX IS                
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR MUCH OF THE PCPN UNTIL TEMPS CAN WARM               
ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WON/T BE UNTIL SOMETIME                    
SATURDAY AFT 12Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH SUCH A COLD/DRY AIRMASS TO               
BEGIN THIS EVENT...SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE WITH MAIN FLY IN               
THE PCPN OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK BEING HOW MUCH SLEET WILL FALL OR                 
MIX IN. ALTHOUGH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE A            
BIT TOO WARM FOR SNOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A CHC OF IT               
TO BEGIN THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH QUITE BRIEF SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WL               
MENTION SOME 1/2-1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH TNGT TAPERING                  
OFF TO ONE/TWO TENTHS ALONG PLATTE RIVER AND NOTHING S OF THERE                 
INCLUDING 4 SW IA COUNTIES. /DID ALSO LINGER SOME 1-2 INCH                      
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN 12Z-18Z PD FAR N/.                                        
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...QUESTION TURNS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL                
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. 03Z SREF...ENSEMBLES...KEPT SFC                     
TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 OVER ALL ZONES THROUGH 12Z BUT BY 18Z LIFTED              
FREEZING LINE TO AROUND A OFK-NRN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IA LINE AND              
TO THE SD BORDER BY 21 AND 00Z.  GENERALLY FOLLOWING THAT THINKING              
LED TO A SPLIT OF MORNING GRIDS TO MENTION RAIN AS PREVAILING PCPN              
TYPE S OF PLATTE RIVER AFT 15Z AND FROM OLU-HNR IN 18Z-21Z PD WITH              
RAIN ALONG AND S OF THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS UP INTO THE                
MID/UPPER 40 RANGE FAR SRN NEBR ZONES AND LOW/MID 40S OVR FAR SRN               
IA ZONES AS EVEN ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM BRING WEDGE OF VERY WARM 850                
MB AIR INTO SERN CWA BY 00Z SUN. AGAIN WILL BE ADJUSTING HRLY                   
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS OCCURRING CLOSER TO 00Z INSTEAD OF NORMAL                 
DIURNAL TRENDS. WITH THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED 850 MB JET...WOULD               
NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS ARE EVEN WARMER THAN THAT FAR S. BOTH                 
NAM AND GFS FORECAST STRONG MID LVL DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB                 
PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM AS FAR NE AS THE OMAHA AREA BY                         
18Z...SHOWN NICELY ON CROSS SECTIONS. THIS COULD SHUT MUCH OF THE               
PCPN DOWN TO EITHER LGT R- OR DRIZZLE...PSBLY STILL FREEZING FAR                
N...LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL NEED MONITORING               
IN LATER FORECASTS IF TRENDS PERSIST...BUT KEPT MEASURABLE POPS                 
QUITE HIGH YET IN 18Z-06Z PD...ALTHOUGH DID START TO MENTION                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE SOME SECTIONS AFT 06Z. BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY                   
THOUGH SAT NGT INTO SUN AM AS STILL SOME DECENT FORCING POSSIBLE                
AS MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS. PROBABLE STRATO CU BEHIND SYSTEM ON               
SUNDAY COULD LIMIT HEATING...SPCLY NRN ZONES AND TRIMMED BACK                   
HIGHS SOME.                                                                     
AS STATED EARLIER...LTL/NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED...MAINLY TO                 
THE PD BEYOND TUE. ECMWF/GFS BOTH LEANED TOWARD MILDER TEMPS                    
MONDAY AND BOOSTED MOST AREAS. SOME QUESTION TUE AS ECMWF PUSHES                
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT INTO THE CWA WHILE 00Z GFS CONTD QUITE WARM.                
COMPROMISED A BIT AND BUMPED UP SWRN/CNTRL ZONES A FEW DEGREES.                 
ALSO BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTED POPS MAY NEED INTRODUCING BY                  
NEXT THURSDAY AS A DECENT TROUGH CROSSES AREA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NIL AVN CONCERNS FOR ALL TAF SITE WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL            
THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z. AT THAT TIME...SFC WINDS SHIFT FM NORTH TO                
E/SE WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING MOD-SVR TURB/LLWS               
TWD 01/06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING LLWS AT THIS POINT THUS NO                 
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING              
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-                
     088>093.                                                                   
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING              
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHERMOK/DEE                                                                     
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
339 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...RIGHT UP FRONT...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL                      
CONTINUE AS IS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING...                 
IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER FOR SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWFA. THE              
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA WILL EXPERIENCE ICE...BUT                    
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT...THE WIDESPREAD                   
COVERAGE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH GETS THE WORD OUT AND EVEN AN                
UPGRADE ON THE DAYSHIFT WILL GIVE 8 TO 12+ HOURS OF LEAD                        
TIME...AND HOPEFULLY GIVE THE BEST DEPICTION OF THE POTENTIAL                   
SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT.                                                          
RIGHT NOW...ARCTIC LIKE AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO NEBRASKA BEHIND                
SURGING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW SOLIDLY IN THE TEENS OVER              
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S IN                
KANSAS. BELIEVE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                
THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIR...WITH 1032MB SURFACE PRESSURES INTO              
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CLOUDS ALSO NOW SLIDING OVER THE CWFA. WINDS                 
PROGGED TO TURN NORTHEAST/EAST TODAY AS WELL. THOSE TWO FACTORS                 
DON/T SUPPORT MUCH WARMING...AND HAVE LOWERED TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS.               
THAT ALSO MEANS THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISLODGE TONIGHT.                
THE MAIN SHOW IS TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT                 
PRECIPITATION PHASE IS PARAMOUNT...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT                   
ASSOCIATED WITH MASSIVE WARM ADVECTION IS ANOTHER BIG POINT.                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP TO 4+ STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE                 
NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER...AND ABOVE 1 INCH. SUCH ANOMALOUS                    
INGREDIENTS CAN RESULT IN ANOMALOUS RESULTS (SEE ICT STORM                      
2006). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING...ROUGHLY THE                   
SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWFA WILL START AS FREEZING RAIN AND THEN                   
TURN TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUARTER OF                    
THE CWFA WILL HOLD ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE                
TURNING TO RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY CATCH                
SOME SLEET AS WARM LAYER DOESN/T REALLY GET DEEP ENOUGH TIL MID                 
TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA COULD VERY WELL                 
START AS SLEET...THEN MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN GO TO                   
FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FAVORS A COOLER RUC AND                    
NAME SOLUTION. GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS ALL THE                     
MODELS SHOW QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCHES...CLOSER TO 0.50 INCHES...             
MUCH OF WHICH WILL FALL AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WOULD                   
BE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST CWFA. SUCH AMOUNTS OF ICE OF                    
WOULD NOT ONLY HALT TRAVEL NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND...BUT                 
COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES/POLES.                          
ABOUT THE ONLY PROMISING NEWS WITH THIS EVENT IS IT SHOULD BE                   
QUICK HITTING...ROUGHLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO                  
MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOK LIKELY                  
FROM ABOUT 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH NOONISH...WITH THE PRECIPITATION               
ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER INTERESTING POINT...IS              
WE ARE FORECASTING HUGE WARMING...INTO THE 50S...IN THE SOUTHEAST               
CWFA. THAT WILL RAPIDLY MELT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION...AND THAT TOO                
COULD LIMIT ICE IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA.                                   
AGAIN...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE EVENT OVER THE CWFA                 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST ICE                 
AMOUNTS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY...TO                     
HASTINGS...TO GENEVA. ICE ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA COULD EXCEED                
ONE QUARTER INCH. LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE...THROUGH STILL                         
SIGNIFICANT...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CST THU NOV 29 2007/                        
AVIATION...06Z TAF. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE TERMINAL                  
LOCATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH                
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR               
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT.              
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IN                   
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY MAKE IT SOUTH. HAVE               
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THINK ANY LOWER                  
CLOUDS WILL BE FEW OR SCT AT BEST...AND HAVE KEPT A CIG OUT OF THE              
FORECAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EVENING. HIGH               
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WINTER              
STORM. WILL SEE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY                    
SUNSET WITH CIGS THEN DROPPING TO 4-5K FEET NEAR THE END OF THE                 
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z                   
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING              
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                            
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING              
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MORITZ                                                                          
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1002 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER                 
SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS IN TURN, WILL SET OFF                    
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF               
LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.                                      
SATURDAY NIGHT, A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH                  
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION ON                    
SUNDAY, THEN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH              
SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND                
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ELMIRA TO ONEONTA. SOME              
SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT BUT MOST OF INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM                  
EARLIER. BEHIND IT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT HAS ALREADY SET UP IN                  
ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE THEN DIMINISH LATE                 
TONIGHT AS THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH                
ADVISORY FOR ONEIDA WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES. 18Z NAM AND 00Z RUC AS                  
WELL AS LOCAL MODELS SUPPORT SCENARIO. AS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH                  
NRN SUSQU REGION AND NRN FINGER LAKES COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES                   
POSSIBLY 3.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                           
SATURDAY...AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATE BY MID               
MORNING SFC HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD DOWN OVER                
AREA. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MAX TEMPS BTW 5 TO               
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES OVER SRN ONTARIO PUSHES DUE NORTH                
AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO SRN WISC BY 12Z SUNDAY. FOR HALF THE NIGHT                
CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADITIONAL COOLING THEN MID/HIGH                   
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS FA. INITIAL SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO HIGH PRES INTERACTION. WENT LIKELY                 
POPS LATE FOE FAR WESTERN ZONES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. P-TYPE                 
WILL BE SNOW.                                                                   
SUNDAY...AFTER INITIAL SHOT OF WAA FORCING MOVES ACROSS REGION IN               
A WEAKENED STATE LIFT NOT VERY EXCITING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.                   
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STORM EVOLUTION BUT DO VARY                       
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MID LEVEL WARM WEDGE. NAM IS THE COLDEST MODEL               
WITH ECMWF THE WARMEST AND GFS IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIP TO MIX                 
WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM I81 WEST. ANY                  
SNOW ACCUM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 3 INCHES OR LESS.                   
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH FAR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY               
DUE WEAK LIFT AND SFC HIGH PRES STILL NOSING DOWN INTO EASTERN NY.              
SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE AND                   
AMOUNT OF QPF DUE TO COASTAL TRANSFER. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT              
MIXED PRECIP ALL AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL               
OR ICING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK                   
VALLEY. THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE                  
NEEDED AS REST OF CWA WILL NOT REACH EITHER THE SNOW OR ICING                   
ACCUM TO JUSTIFY A WARNING. HERE AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE POSTED.             
SINCE PRECIP MAY NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CWA                
THERE IS ENOUGH TIME TO ISSUE WATCH WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY.                  
MONDAY...COASTAL LOW BECOMES PRIMARY FEATURE WITH STRONG MID LEVEL              
COOLING CHANGING ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING.                
ADDI TONAL SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLY ESP WESTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH MOHAWK VALLEY.     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AS THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM WINDS UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST                
WRAP-AROUND / LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE EASTERN STATES                      
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW INDICATED IN THE                
FORECAST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR                
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR                 
COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
COLD FNT CUTTING THRU THE FCST AREA THIS EVE. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN                
SNOW SHWRS ARE PSBL DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT...WITH GUSTY                  
WINDS. BHD THE FNT MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS WILL DVLP AGAIN AS LAKE               
EFFECT SNOWS DVLP AFT 03ZAND BRNGS SNOW SHWRS TO RME/SYR/ITH AND                
BGM. ELM AND AVP SHD REMAIN VFR THRU THE NGT...EVEN WITH SCT SNOW               
SHWRS.                                                                          
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...                                        
LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                           
SUNDAY...BRINGING RESTRICTIONS. MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND                
SLEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS BY                           
MONDAY...WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. SCATTERED LAKE-                    
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PERHAPS                  
KEEP RESTRICTIONS GOING OVER UPSTATE NY...WITH POSSIBLE                         
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.                                         
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-              
     037.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RRM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC                                                             
SHORT TERM...RRM                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...DGM                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
106 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY                              
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS                      
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL                 
DROP INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT                  
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE RAIN              
OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON                      
SATURDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST              
AND DWINDLING. LLVL FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO ORIENT                
ON A SW-NE DIRECTION WITH ANY DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT BAND ACTIVITY              
TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF CNY. THE LATEST RUC AND 12Z NAM MODELS ARE              
INDICATING THE AFTERNOON TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE                   
EXCEPTION OF SOME RENEGADE SHRA/SHSN DRIFTING THROUGH THE NRN                   
FINGER LAKES TO SRN TUG HILL. AS A RESULT...HAVE MODIFIED THE                   
FORECAST TO ONLY MENTION LOW MEASURABLE CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN                 
ZONES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON               
TRACK...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SW. LAKE EFFECT BANDING                
WILL DEVELOP IN OUR AREA THIS EVENING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                             
GOOD LOOKING SET UP FOR LES BAND THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY                    
MORNING. EL HEIGHTS NEAR 700 MB, PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AND A STRONG               
FETCH OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW                 
OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO DIP INTO                
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BETWEEN 0Z AND 3Z, AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY              
STATE THROUGH SUNRISE.                                                          
BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS, AND ALSO -10 OMEGA EXTENDING INTO              
DENDRITE REGION, WE THINK THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT                 
THIS POINT WILL FORECAST 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW, THOUGH A FEW                   
EVENTS IN THE LES SIMILAR SOUNDINGS DATABASE PRODUCED HIGHER                    
AMOUNTS. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE AMT OF FORECAST SHEAR,               
WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PVS 24H FORECAST. ALSO NAM12 PLAN VIEW IS                  
SLOWER TO DROP BAND INTO ONEIDA UTILIZING LOW LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS.               
OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS LIKE "GO" AND WE HAVE ISSUED AN LES WARNING.         
AN ADDITIONAL LES BAND IS PROBABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                      
SATURDAY, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUNCHES THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO. THE              
FLOW IS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS TIME AROUND, PLACING THE                  
BAND FROM ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH ONONDAGA AND POSSIBLY THE                  
FINGER LAKES. THE FLOW IS MORE SHEARED, AND IT SHIFTS TO A 310-320              
FLOW MIDWAY THROUGH THE EVENT. SO THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS                 
MUTED SOMEWHAT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
THE SUNDAY-MONDAY FORECAST IS SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS...AS              
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONVERGE /ALMOST TO AN UNCANNY DEGREE WITH THEIR              
00Z RUNS/ TO A COMMON SOLUTION ON THE IMPENDING STORMY WEATHER.                 
ENERGY SITTING OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL TEAM UP WITH ENERGY                  
DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE US WEST COAST TOMORROW...AND EJECT INTO THE              
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT LOW PRESSURE              
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A TRACK FROM              
NEAR DENVER AT 12Z SATURDAY...TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z SUNDAY.              
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD GET                 
SNOW GOING ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL              
GFS IS STILL A BIT QUICKER WITH PRECIP ONSET...BUT NOT BY                       
MUCH...AND NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE SUNDAY FORECAST. ON                         
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TURN EAST AND TRAVEL ACROSS CENTRAL               
MICHIGAN. THE 00Z RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH THIS                       
LOW...AND..IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY...HAVE A COASTAL LOW                        
DEVELOPING NEAR NJ THAT MOVES NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY BECOMES THE                 
DOMINANT CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE REMAINS A PUSH OF WARM AIR                   
ALOFT INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE 850 LOW                
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED SLEET                      
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN SOME RAIN IN THE FAR WEST. THE                      
RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE PRIMARY LOW AND ITS SUBSEQUENT                        
REDEVELOPMENT WILL CERTAINLY DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM               
AIR MAKES IT BEFORE THE NEW LOW TAKES OVER AND DRAWS IN MUCH                    
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE PLAYED A RA/SN/IP MIX IN THE                
GRIDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ZR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER...                  
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ZR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THERE REMAINS               
THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES TO NEVER CHANGEOVER TO                 
PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME RAIN LOOKS                  
LIKELY.                                                                         
QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...WITH GULF                 
MOISTURE ONLY REALLY GETTING INVOLVED IN THE MIX FOR THE LAST 6                 
HOURS BEFORE FROPA. THE GFS PAINTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR THE CWA.              
GIVEN THAT THIS WON`T BE ALL RAIN...DON`T EXPECT MANY HYDRO                     
PROBLEMS GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. ALSO...GIVEN THAT IT WON`T BE ALL                 
SNOW EITHER /ALMOST HALF OF THIS COMES BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MONDAY AS                
THE GULF MOISTURE GETS INVOLVED/...IT LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL                    
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME ICING BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES               
TO RAIN. OF COURSE...WE`RE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...SO STAY TUNED.               
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ON MONDAY WITH 50KTS UP AT 850MB              
AND GOOD COLD ADVECTION KEEPING US WELL MIXED BELOW. COULD SEE                  
SOME 30-35KT GUSTS WITH PLENTY OF SHSN OFF THE LAKES MAKING IT A                
PRETTY WINTERY DAY.                                                             
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EASTERN US VORTEX IS PRETTY QUICK TO                
PULL OUT GIVEN LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. HOWEVER...THE PNA WILL              
CONTINUE TO BE POSITIVE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE SUPPLY OF COOL                    
NORTHWEST FLOW GOING INTO MID WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL MCLOUDY SKIES               
AND NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKES...WITH TEMPS 7-10F COLDER               
THEN WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FA ATTM WITH UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS                  
OVER NRN CWA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT                 
PERIOD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ITH/BGM WITH VFR CONTINUING AT                 
KELM/KAVP. FURTHER NORTH, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP                  
LATER THIS EVENING OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AND CONTINUE UNTIL                    
DAYBREAK. AT KRME, IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z DUE TO                 
BOTH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AND CIGS. AFTER 14Z, THE BAND WILL               
MOVE NORTH OF TERMINAL WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AT KSYR, FLURRIES AND               
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BTW 06Z-12Z. AFTER 14Z, VFR CONDITIONS                   
EXPECTD EVERYWHERE WITH JUST SCATTERED CU.                                      
W/SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH LATE                 
EVENING THEN WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS. ON                
FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.                                        
FOR THE 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...                                 
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHSN COULD BRING SOME MVFR                      
RESTRICTIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AT ALL                  
SITES EXCEPT KAVP IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD                    
FEATURE IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR AS THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN DIMINISH.               
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SN INTO THE AREA DURING SUNDAY              
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS IN SN DURING                
THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A MIX                
WITH SN/IP POSSIBLY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. FRONT PASSES MONDAY                     
MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN CONTINUING               
THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST               
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JAB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...JMA                                                                 
AVIATION...RRM                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1119 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A                  
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY... WILL BUILD               
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL                   
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER                 
INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY                
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...                   
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...                                       
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM TN ACROSS WESTERN VA              
AND NC LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND                 
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND              
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA THIS MORNING INDICTED A                
FEW PATCHES OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS AT 5-6KT FEET EXTENDING                 
FROM WINSTON-SALEM AND GREENSBORO EAST TO RDU AND LOUISBURG...                  
MOVING EASTWARD AT 20-25KT. THE LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM ALL SUGGEST                  
THAT THESE PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE                
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON                
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.                                                       
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 55-60 N TO                
S.                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
THROUGH SUNDAY...S/W OVER THE EASTERN U.S.MOVES QUICKLY EAST.                   
THIS FEATURE INDUCES A S/W RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY                   
WHICH MIGRATES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE                    
OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUPPORT ANOTHER DRY                
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS COMPARABLE TO HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY.                          
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE SPED UP                         
ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF SURFACE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE/LIFT                  
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SCOOTS EWD SATURDAY               
NIGHT RESULTING IN A LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. 925-850MB FLOW BECOMES              
FAIRLY STOUT WITH 850MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 10 KTS TO 25-30KTS                
OVERNIGHT. STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-295K LAYER SUGGEST            
THAT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE LAYER NOT             
ALL THAT DEEP (~5K FT). WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SUN              
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.                                               
850MB FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN               
SUN. HOWEVER FLOW VEERS TO A WLY DIRECTION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THE             
BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SUN NIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC                
LIFT IN THE 285-290K LAYER SUN AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE              
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE                  
SURFACE FRONT. WHILE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN A GOOD BET....PRECIP AMOUNTS             
WILL BE LIGHT AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE              
REGION. PRESENTLY...ONLY EXPECTING PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT OF            
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LATER FORECAST MAY NEED TO BOOST                
HIGH CHANCE POP FOR LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.                
MAX TEMPS SUN TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE/POTENTIAL FOR                 
LIGHT RAIN MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE. IF LIGHT RAIN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN               
CURRENT THINKING...MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE 5 DEGREES COOLER.                  
NOW APPEARS THAT SURFACE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF REGION PRIOR TO 12Z              
MONDAY WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING NW-SE MON MORNING WITH STOUT NW              
FLOW IN WAKE OF SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY                   
CONDITIONS MON. ALSO DECENT LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED. WENT WITH A LESS            
THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY MON.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
L/W TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD TUE-WED. THIS                       
TRANSLATES TO A COOL AND CONTINUED DRY PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NC. MAX               
TEMPS TUE/WED WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 EACH AFTERNOON WHILE MINS               
IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE COMMON. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING                
SEWD IN TROUGH MAY AFFECT REGION TUE NIGHT/WED. WILL BEEF UP                    
CLOUDINESS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. THIS              
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER. TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT                 
N-NE THU SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS                  
BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                     
THE 925-850 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW              
LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.                 
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD                    
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS              
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. VFR                     
CONDITIONS IN DRY SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON               
INTO TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP                  
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MAX TEMPERATURES 55 TO 60 COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE               
5-10 RANGE NW... AND TEENS SE... WILL YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE                    
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 13-18 PERCENT NW... AND 15-20 PERCENT SE                
COASTAL PLAIN.                                                                  
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS               
AND RECENT LIGHT WETTING RAIN.                                                  
NO STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
NOVEMBER 2007 WILL GO DOWN AS THE DRIEST ON RECORD AT THE                       
RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU).                                     
NOVEMBER 2007 RAINFALL OBSERVED AT RDU...0.48 OF AN INCH.                       
THE PREVIOUS TOP 5 DRIEST NOVEMBERS AT RDU (SINCE 1944)                         
0.50    2001                                                                    
0.61    1973                                                                    
0.73    1991                                                                    
0.88    1960                                                                    
0.95    1981                                                                    
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE 4TH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE              
RALEIGH AREA (GOING BACK TO 1887). THE DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD FOR            
THE RALEIGH AREA OCCURRED TWICE... (1890 AND 1931)... WHEN ONLY 0.06            
INCHES WAS OBSERVED.                                                            
AT THE PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)... A BIT MORE                 
FREQUENT RAINFALL IN NOVEMBER TOTALED OUT TO 0.84 INCHES OF RAIN...             
PUSHING IT OUT OF THE TOP 5 DRIEST FOR GSO.                                     
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR THE YEAR MAY BE SET...                                     
YEARLY RAINFALL AT BOTH RDU AND GSO WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE TOP 5               
DRIEST BY THE END OF DECEMBER.                                                  
OBSERVED RAINFALL AT RDU...31.36 INCHES (8.47 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)              
DRIEST ON RECORD FOR THE RALEIGH AREA (SINCE 1887)...                           
1. 29.93 INCHES IN 1933                                                         
2. 32.09 INCHES IN 1921                                                         
3. 33.71 INCHES IN 1976                                                         
4. 33.92 INCHES IN 1930                                                         
5. 34.43 INCHES IN 1965                                                         
OBSERVED RAINFALL AT GSO...28.28 INCHES (11.61 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)             
DRIEST ON RECORD FOR GSO (SINCE 1928).                                          
1. 27.74 INCHES IN 1941                                                         
2. 29.67 INCHES IN 1986                                                         
3. 29.83 INCHES IN 2001                                                         
4. 32.44 INCHES IN 1930                                                         
5. 32.86 INCHES IN 1968                                                         
IN ADDITION BOTH RDU AND GSO NEW RECORDS COULD BE SET FOR THE FEWEST            
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN A CALENDAR YEAR.                     
AT RDU THERE HAS BEEN ONLY 81 DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL (0.01 OR              
MORE) IN 2007. THIS IS 11 DAYS LESS THAN THE RECORD LOW OF 92 DAYS              
SET IN 1969.                                                                    
AT GSO... THERE HAS BEEN 76 DAYS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN 2007.                
THIS IS 9 DAYS LESS THAN THE RECORD OF 85 DAYS SET IN 1986.                     
THE NORMAL NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT BOTH GSO AND              
RDU IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS 113... MEANING BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN               
MORE THAN A MONTHS WORTH OF FEWER RAIN DAYS THAN NORMAL.                        
THE NORMAL NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR DECEMBER AT              
BOTH STATIONS IS 9 DAYS. GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN AND LACK OF              
FREQUENT RAIN EVENTS BOTH RDU AND GSO STAND TO SET ALL TIME RECORDS             
FOR THE FEWEST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH OBSERVED RAIN IN A YEAR.                     
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT                                                              
NEAR TERM...BADGETT                                                             
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
CLIMATE...JO/PWB/BSD/CBL                                                        
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1111 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TEMPS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO RECOVER TODAY...AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUD             
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE NOT HELPING MATTERS ANY.             
SIMILAR TO PAST TWO DAYS...RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON COOLER              
AIR SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION COOLING HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESP IN            
THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR            
TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP WILL BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND. WILL                  
LIKELY BE DOING SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING TO PLACEMENT OF BETTER              
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AFTER LOOKING AT MODELS MORE CLOSELY                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM HAVE BEEN SENT...AND WILL               
GET A NEW ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS               
WITH STEADILY FALLING CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED                 
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE CIGS DROP            
INTO HIGH MVFR RANGE AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALSO...COULD SEE            
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THURSDAY EVENING...BUT            
IS NOT LIKELY TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES.                                         
$$                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
CHALLENGING FCST THIS GO AROUND...WITH MODEL DISCREPANCY LARGE WHICH            
DOES NOT HELP MATTERS ANY. FORGOED HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT WE                   
THOUGHT SERIOUSLY ABOUT THEM. MORE ON THAT LATER. IN THE NEAR TERM              
TODAY...NARROW BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH JUST N OF A SUBTLE            
WIND SHIFT LINE IN OUR NRN FA ATTM. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THICKER HIGH             
CLOUDS ARE MOVG RAPIDLY EWD. THESE CLOUDS WL LIKELY TEMPER HIGH                 
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. BASICALLY I TOOK THE H925 TEMPS            
AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGS...AS THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF             
MIXING TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BUT ALL IN ALL...DUE             
TO LIGHT WINDS...NOT A BAD DAY IN STORE WX WISE.                                
FOR TONIGHT...SUBTLE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU THIS AREA WITH            
A SFC CDFNT PASSAGE. STILL A BAND OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS EXISTS               
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...SO KEPT SOME CHCS FOR -SN GOING RIGHT THRU              
THE HEART OF THE FSD FA FM W TO E. DYNAMICS RAPIDLY EXITS OUR ERN FA            
BETWEEN 06Z TO 09Z...SO ANY PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THEN. RH              
TIME SECTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME RAPIDLY DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AFT                
09Z...SO LOW TEMPS COULD FALL PRETTY GOOD WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG            
CAA. NW FLOW MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW TEMPS FM                 
TOTALLY PLUMMETING HOWEVER.                                                     
FRIDAY WL BE A BREEZY DAY OVR MUCH OF OUR FA WITH THE W TO NW SFC               
FLOW LINGERING. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING...IF WE MIX ABOVE             
H9...MY HIGH TEMPS WL BE TOO COOL. FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER AIR              
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO DIG IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TURNING THE SFC             
FLOW AROUND TO THE SE. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY                   
INCREASE FM THE SW. WITH THE INCREASING SFC WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...            
DECIDED TO GO WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE READINGS MOST LOCATIONS. ONE                  
WONDERS IF EVEN THESE LOW TEMP READINGS WL BE TOO COOL IN TIME. AS              
FAR AS PCPN...GFS IS EXTREMELY BULLISH IN BRINGING LIGHT QPF INTO               
MUCH OF THE FSD FA. THE NAM HAS NONE. DECIDED TO KEEP QPF IN OUR FAR            
SRN FA WHERE SOME SEMBLANCE OF MSTR EXISTS BLO H7. EVEN THE RH TIME             
SECTIONS ON THE GFS ARE FAIRLY DRY BLO ABOUT H75 BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SAT            
MORNING IN OUR FAR SRN FA. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS UP TO              
ITS TRICKS OF OVEREXPANDING QPF AND NOT ALLOWING FOR INITIAL                    
EVAPORATION.                                                                    
BUT ON SATURDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A LOT OF SATURATION                 
BEGINNING OVR THE FA BY 12Z. THE NAM KEEPS THE SFC LOW DOWN IN THE              
SWRN PLAINS AND WAS DISCOUNTED. THE GEM BRINGS THE SFC LOW UP TO                
SIOUX CITY...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SFC WINDS...             
DECIDED TO GO MOSTLY WITH THE GFS BUT IN REALITY...I LIKE THE ECMWF             
SFC PATTERN THE BEST WITH THE SFC LOW ELONGATED FM NRN KS TO W                  
CENTRAL IA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE VARIOUS                 
MODELS UPPER AIR PATTERN. VERY STRONG PV IS NOTED IN THE MID LVLS               
WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTING NWD IN AN W TO E BAND ACROSS THE                       
FA...LINGERING IN OUR ERN FA SAT NIGHT. SO THE TROP FOLD WL HAVE TO             
BE WATCHED IN TIME FOR SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION. AT ANY RATE...                  
BECAUSE OF THE SRN SOLN OFFERED BY THE NAM...THE NAM H85-H7 THERMAL             
PROFILE IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF AND GFS                
THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE THE SFC WHICH IS MUCH WARMER. WAA AND BROAD               
ASCENT IS EXTREMELY STRONG ON SATURDAY...AND AM DEFINITELY WORRIED              
ABOUT MIXED PCPN WORKING ITS WAY INTO NW IA AND IMMDEDIATELY                    
ADJACENT AREAS AT LEAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. INITIALLY...THE THERMAL             
PROFILES START OFF COLD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AND WITH PLENTY OF DEEP                
SATURATION...ICE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LYR               
EARLY SATURDAY. BUT AS THE WARMER AIR INTRUDES IN FM H85-H7 IN OUR              
SERN FA BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WX TYPE COULD GET INTERESTING.               
THEREFORE OPTED TO PUT IN A WINTERY MIX THROUGH OUR SE QUARTER INTO             
SAT EVENING. DECIDED TO FORGO HEADLINES ATTM...BECAUSE IF THE SFC               
LOW PLACEMENT OFF OF THE GEM HAPPENS TO PAN OUT...IT IS NOT OUT OF              
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT NW IA COULD CHANGE TO PURE RAIN BY              
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE. EVEN THE GFS SFC LOW                 
PLACEMENT COULD BE CLOSE TO PURE RAIN. BUT THE ECMWF SFC LOW                    
PLACEMENT WOULD BRING IN A LOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR UNDER THE WARM             
AIR ALOFT...AND THIS SOLN WAS BOUGHT ATTM. DECIDED TO KEEP DIURNAL              
TEMP SPREADS TO A MINIMUM ON SATURDAY FOR THE OBVIOUS REASONS.                  
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT              
SATURDAY NIGHT. ENDED PCPN ACCORDINGLY FM W TO E ON SUNDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
843 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFTING (295 K                     
SURFACE) ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE                    
DEFICIT OVER THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2 MB LATER TONIGHT.                 
00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS DO INDICATE SATURATION JUST SW OF CWFA.                     
EXTREME WESTERN ZONES MAY GET SOME SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. RUC AND                 
NAM12 DO INDICATE LOW CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND COVERING MUCH OF               
CWFA TOWARD MORNING. DEWPOINTS INCHING UP FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY                
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN HALF OF REGION. WE ADJUSTED                 
1ST PERIOD OF ZFPHGX ACCORDINGLY. 37                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH                      
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO EAST TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A                    
LITTLE TIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT AND DON`T THINK THE SFC WINDS WILL               
FULLY DECOUPLE. CURRENTLY EXPECTING MORE LOW CLOUDS INSTEAD OF FOG              
OVERNIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER                
THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. SFC DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER AND WITH                   
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER...THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL                  
REMAIN RATHER MILD. MOISTURE AT AND TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING                  
TEMP INVERSION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT/SUN. COULD BE               
A FEW SHOWERS BENEATH THE CAP SAT/SAT NITE. A COLD FRONT COUPLED                
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES AND A DEPARTING RRQ WILL YIELD                   
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THAT THE               
STRENGTHENING CAP WILL NOT WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SHRA/TSRA               
TO DEVELOP. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. CLEARING AND COOLER              
ON MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP TUE-THU. RAIN RETURNS NEXT FRIDAY              
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LINGER                     
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 43/31                                                     
CLIMATE...                                                                      
AVERAGE TEMPS IN NOVEMBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND                 
RAINFALL VALUES (DEPENDING ON LOCATION) WERE ABOUT 1.50 TO 2.00                 
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. TODAY IS ALSO THE LAST DAY OF THE OFFICIAL                 
HURRICANE SEASON NOT THAT WEATHER NEEDS AN OFFICIAL DAY TO START                
OR STOP. 43                                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING IN                     
MAGNITUDE AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF. TIGHTENING                    
EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY PROMPT AN SCEC AS SE WINDS              
REACH THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. FRONT TIMED TO REACH THE                         
COAST AROUND MONDAY AT MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND                
20 KNOTS...GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS...BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 31                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PER SATELLITE TRENDS...HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE            
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE BROAD BAJA COAST LOW WILL AID IN THE                  
TRANSPORT OF HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER                
CLOUD DECK WILL FORM AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS BACK UP PER INCREASING              
GULF FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED LOW`S TREK INTO THE ROCKIES WILL ONLY                 
INCREASE OVERNIGHT E-SE WINDS. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE                    
MENTION OF DENSE FOG...ONLY INTRODUCING SHORT-LIVED MVFR FOG.                   
CONFIDENCE IS STRONGER WITH POST-06Z DEVELOPMENT OF A MVFR (TO                  
NEAR IFR) DECK...STRONGER SOUTH WINDS...THAN WITH ANY SIG BR/FG                 
FORMATION. 31                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1145 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
.AVIATION... /18Z UPDATE/                                                       
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS                     
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE                
PLAINS. CURRENTLY BKN/OVC035 CONDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF                   
NORTH TEXAS BUT MVFR CIGS ARE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE HILL                    
COUNTRY AND WILL SPREAD NORTH LATER TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR                 
BKN/OVC025 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING               
TO AROUND 1000FT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WILL INCREASE                
OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.                 
IFR CONDS FOR OVC008 CIGS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL              
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT                
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY                
MID AFTERNOON AT 16020G30KT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO                  
55KTS AT 3KFT BY MID AFTN.                                                      
91/DUNN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                        
UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL ONLY MAKE                   
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS. WILL ALSO MENTION ISOLATED              
SPRINKLES ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON WEAK RADAR RETURNS.                
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY                 
WITH MORNING PWS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...WOULD EXPECT AREAS               
OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING BY THIS EVENING...                       
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S BY AFTN...                
WITH A MUCH WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED.                                              
91/DUNN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
SIGNS OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT THIS                   
MORNING VIA SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES AND THE REGIONAL RADAR                 
MOSAIC. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND             
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS /PER 00 HR              
RUC ANALYSIS/ ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS                
IN THE 675-625MB LAYER ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT               
OF RADAR ECHOES PRESENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CHILDRESS...ACROSS               
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. INTERMITTENT                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE ECHOES ARE REPORTING LIGHT                       
RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE          
REACHING THE GROUND...UNTIL LOWER LEVELS CAN SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE.             
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED                
RIVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE                 
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.                                                              
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF BAJA...BUT THE LAST FEW               
IMAGES DEPICT SOME DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                       
CIRCULATION...INDICATING THE LOW MAY BE PREPARING TO LIFT OUT. THIS             
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RUC UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS...             
WHICH INDICATES THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE.           
NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS                           
TODAY...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM               
AIR ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...USHERING H85                
TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 14C INTO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES                
TODAY. AS A RESULT...THIS AREA WILL ALSO WITNESS THE WARMEST HIGHS              
TODAY /UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70/.                                                   
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH              
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVERSPREAD              
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT /295K                
AND 300K SURFACES/ REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR ALONG AND WEST OF THE                 
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY...ALONG WITH A                 
SURGING 1000-850MB THETA-E RIDGE. SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY                 
MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON                      
/21-00Z/ AND MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE                  
ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS.                                                
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES IN REGARDS TO             
POSITION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST TRAJECTORIES LATE TONIGHT AND             
INTO TOMORROW...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST I-35. WILL               
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR WEST. AREAL COVERAGE IS            
QUESTIONABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN                     
ZONES...AND WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A                
PARIS TO CAMERON LINE THRU 18Z SATURDAY.                                        
SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER             
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP              
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW              
/LLJ 40-50KTS/...HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. AM                     
RELUCTANT TO GO AS HIGH AS MAV ON SAT AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS                
WILL PREVENT MAXIMUM INSOLATION.                                                
COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH                   
PACIFIC ORIGINS...DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR COOL DOWN OR SIGNIFICANTLY              
DRIER DEWPOINTS. BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE                
AREA TO REALLY WARM UP...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS /WHERE                 
HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES/. COOLER AIR              
WILL WORK INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS BACK TO MORE              
SEASONABLE READINGS FOR EARLY DECEMBER /LOWER 60S/.                             
ALTHOUGH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA LATE SAT             
NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST SATURATION             
WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST /AS INDICATED BY                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/. THEREFORE...THIS EVENT MAY BE                  
WRAPPING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN MORNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT            
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THAT SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR         
NOW.                                                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON                          
TUESDAY...WHILE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS COMMENCE /DUE TO RIDGING               
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER              
60S AND LOWER 70S ON TUES AND WED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE           
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A                 
SHORTWAVE TROF TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND BRING             
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY NEXT FRIDAY.                                            
AT THIS TIME...NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER             
30S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST                    
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY HAVE A SHOT AT FROST MONDAY MORNING...AS                
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  58  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
WACO, TX              69  61  72  66  78 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             58  50  69  62  74 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
DENTON, TX            63  58  71  61  74 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  56  69  62  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
DALLAS, TX            65  59  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
TERRELL, TX           64  57  71  65  76 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  58  72  65  79 /  10  10  20  20  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            69  62  72  64  80 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1003 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL ONLY MAKE                  
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS. WILL ALSO MENTION ISOLATED              
SPRINKLES ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON WEAK RADAR RETURNS.                
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY                 
WITH MORNING PWS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...WOULD EXPECT AREAS               
OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING BY THIS EVENING...                       
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S BY AFTN...                
WITH A MUCH WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED.                                              
91/DUNN                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
VFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR                    
CEILINGS...CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND HILL COUNTRY WILL                 
CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD AND SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND 15Z AND                 
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 17Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO                     
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL               
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO                     
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN WACO. DO                 
NOT EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES...CURRENTLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...TO              
AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM                
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 MILES                
OR BETTER DUE TO A STRONGER SURFACE WIND. THERE MAY BE A FEW                    
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS               
WILL BE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.                                     
79...                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
SIGNS OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT THIS                   
MORNING VIA SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES AND THE REGIONAL RADAR                 
MOSAIC. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND             
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS /PER 00 HR              
RUC ANALYSIS/ ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS                
IN THE 675-625MB LAYER ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT               
OF RADAR ECHOES PRESENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CHILDRESS...ACROSS               
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. INTERMITTENT                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE ECHOES ARE REPORTING LIGHT                       
RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE          
REACHING THE GROUND...UNTIL LOWER LEVELS CAN SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE.             
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED                
RIVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE                 
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.                                                              
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF BAJA...BUT THE LAST FEW               
IMAGES DEPICT SOME DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                       
CIRCULATION...INDICATING THE LOW MAY BE PREPARING TO LIFT OUT. THIS             
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RUC UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS...             
WHICH INDICATES THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE.           
NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS                           
TODAY...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM               
AIR ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...USHERING H85                
TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 14C INTO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES                
TODAY. AS A RESULT...THIS AREA WILL ALSO WITNESS THE WARMEST HIGHS              
TODAY /UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70/.                                                   
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH              
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVERSPREAD              
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT /295K                
AND 300K SURFACES/ REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR ALONG AND WEST OF THE                 
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY...ALONG WITH A                 
SURGING 1000-850MB THETA-E RIDGE. SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY                 
MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON                      
/21-00Z/ AND MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE                  
ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS.                                                
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES IN REGARDS TO             
POSITION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST TRAJECTORIES LATE TONIGHT AND             
INTO TOMORROW...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST I-35. WILL               
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR WEST. AREAL COVERAGE IS            
QUESTIONABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN                     
ZONES...AND WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A                
PARIS TO CAMERON LINE THRU 18Z SATURDAY.                                        
SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER             
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP              
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW              
/LLJ 40-50KTS/...HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. AM                     
RELUCTANT TO GO AS HIGH AS MAV ON SAT AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS                
WILL PREVENT MAXIMUM INSOLATION.                                                
COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH                   
PACIFIC ORIGINS...DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR COOL DOWN OR SIGNIFICANTLY              
DRIER DEWPOINTS. BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE                
AREA TO REALLY WARM UP...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS /WHERE                 
HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES/. COOLER AIR              
WILL WORK INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS BACK TO MORE              
SEASONABLE READINGS FOR EARLY DECEMBER /LOWER 60S/.                             
ALTHOUGH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA LATE SAT             
NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST SATURATION             
WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST /AS INDICATED BY                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/. THEREFORE...THIS EVENT MAY BE                  
WRAPPING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN MORNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT            
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THAT SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR         
NOW.                                                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON                          
TUESDAY...WHILE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS COMMENCE /DUE TO RIDGING               
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER              
60S AND LOWER 70S ON TUES AND WED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE           
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A                 
SHORTWAVE TROF TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND BRING             
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY NEXT FRIDAY.                                            
AT THIS TIME...NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER             
30S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST                    
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY HAVE A SHOT AT FROST MONDAY MORNING...AS                
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  58  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
WACO, TX              69  61  72  66  78 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             58  50  69  62  74 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
DENTON, TX            63  58  71  61  74 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  56  69  62  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
DALLAS, TX            65  59  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
TERRELL, TX           64  57  71  65  76 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  58  72  65  79 /  10  10  20  20  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            69  62  72  64  80 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
525 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR                    
CEILINGS...CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND HILL COUNTRY WILL                 
CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD AND SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND 15Z AND THE             
METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 17Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR              
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE.  VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY FALL           
TO MVFR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN WACO. DO NOT EXPECT IFR                    
VISIBILITIES...CURRENTLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...TO AFFECT ANY OF               
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.            
HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 MILES OR BETTER DUE TO A              
STRONGER SURFACE WIND. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND              
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE         
35 CORRIDOR.                                                                    
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
329 AM CST                                                                      
SIGNS OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT THIS                   
MORNING VIA SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES AND THE REGIONAL RADAR                 
MOSAIC. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND             
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS /PER 00 HR              
RUC ANALYSIS/ ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS                
IN THE 675-625MB LAYER ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT               
OF RADAR ECHOES PRESENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CHILDRESS...ACROSS               
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. INTERMITTENT                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE ECHOES ARE REPORTING LIGHT                       
RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE          
REACHING THE GROUND...UNTIL LOWER LEVELS CAN SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE.             
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED                
RIVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE                 
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.                                                              
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF BAJA...BUT THE LAST FEW               
IMAGES DEPICT SOME DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                       
CIRCULATION...INDICATING THE LOW MAY BE PREPARING TO LIFT OUT. THIS             
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RUC UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS...             
WHICH INDICATES THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE.           
NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS                           
TODAY...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM               
AIR ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...USHERING H85                
TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 14C INTO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES                
TODAY. AS A RESULT...THIS AREA WILL ALSO WITNESS THE WARMEST HIGHS              
TODAY /UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70/.                                                   
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH              
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVERSPREAD              
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT /295K                
AND 300K SURFACES/ REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR ALONG AND WEST OF THE                 
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY...ALONG WITH A                 
SURGING 1000-850MB THETA-E RIDGE. SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY                 
MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON                      
/21-00Z/ AND MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE                  
ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS.                                                
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES IN REGARDS TO             
POSITION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST TRAJECTORIES LATE TONIGHT AND             
INTO TOMORROW...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST I-35. WILL               
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR WEST. AREAL COVERAGE IS            
QUESTIONABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN                     
ZONES...AND WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A                
PARIS TO CAMERON LINE THRU 18Z SATURDAY.                                        
SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER             
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP              
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW              
/LLJ 40-50KTS/...HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. AM                     
RELUCTANT TO GO AS HIGH AS MAV ON SAT AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS                
WILL PREVENT MAXIMUM INSOLATION.                                                
COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH                   
PACIFIC ORIGINS...DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR COOL DOWN OR SIGNIFICANTLY              
DRIER DEWPOINTS. BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE                
AREA TO REALLY WARM UP...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS /WHERE                 
HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES/. COOLER AIR              
WILL WORK INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS BACK TO MORE              
SEASONABLE READINGS FOR EARLY DECEMBER /LOWER 60S/.                             
ALTHOUGH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA LATE SAT             
NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST SATURATION             
WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST /AS INDICATED BY                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/. THEREFORE...THIS EVENT MAY BE                  
WRAPPING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN MORNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT            
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THAT SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR         
NOW.                                                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON                          
TUESDAY...WHILE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS COMMENCE /DUE TO RIDGING               
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER              
60S AND LOWER 70S ON TUES AND WED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE           
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A                 
SHORTWAVE TROF TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND BRING             
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY NEXT FRIDAY.                                            
AT THIS TIME...NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER             
30S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST                    
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY HAVE A SHOT AT FROST MONDAY MORNING...AS                
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  58  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
WACO, TX              69  61  72  66  78 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             58  50  69  62  74 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
DENTON, TX            63  58  71  61  74 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  56  69  62  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
DALLAS, TX            65  59  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
TERRELL, TX           64  57  71  65  76 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  58  72  65  79 /  10  10  20  20  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            69  62  72  64  80 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
329 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SIGNS OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT THIS                   
MORNING VIA SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES AND THE REGIONAL RADAR                 
MOSAIC. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND             
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS /PER 00 HR              
RUC ANALYSIS/ ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS                
IN THE 675-625MB LAYER ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT               
OF RADAR ECHOES PRESENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CHILDRESS...ACROSS               
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. INTERMITTENT                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE ECHOES ARE REPORTING LIGHT                       
RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE          
REACHING THE GROUND...UNTIL LOWER LEVELS CAN SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE.             
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED                
RIVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE                 
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.                                                              
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF BAJA...BUT THE LAST FEW               
IMAGES DEPICT SOME DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF                       
CIRCULATION...INDICATING THE LOW MAY BE PREPARING TO LIFT OUT. THIS             
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RUC UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS...             
WHICH INDICATES THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE.           
NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS                           
TODAY...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM               
AIR ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...USHERING H85                
TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 14C INTO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES                
TODAY. AS A RESULT...THIS AREA WILL ALSO WITNESS THE WARMEST HIGHS              
TODAY /UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70/.                                                   
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH              
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVERSPREAD              
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT /295K                
AND 300K SURFACES/ REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR ALONG AND WEST OF THE                 
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY...ALONG WITH A                 
SURGING 1000-850MB THETA-E RIDGE. SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY                 
MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON                      
/21-00Z/ AND MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE                  
ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE GRIDS.                                                
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES IN REGARDS TO             
POSITION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST TRAJECTORIES LATE TONIGHT AND             
INTO TOMORROW...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND WEST I-35. WILL               
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR WEST. AREAL COVERAGE IS            
QUESTIONABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN                     
ZONES...AND WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A                
PARIS TO CAMERON LINE THRU 18Z SATURDAY.                                        
SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER             
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP              
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW              
/LLJ 40-50KTS/...HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. AM                     
RELUCTANT TO GO AS HIGH AS MAV ON SAT AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS                
WILL PREVENT MAXIMUM INSOLATION.                                                
COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH                   
PACIFIC ORIGINS...DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR COOL DOWN OR SIGNIFICANTLY              
DRIER DEWPOINTS. BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE                
AREA TO REALLY WARM UP...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS /WHERE                 
HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES/. COOLER AIR              
WILL WORK INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS BACK TO MORE              
SEASONABLE READINGS FOR EARLY DECEMBER /LOWER 60S/.                             
ALTHOUGH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA LATE SAT             
NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING...MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST SATURATION             
WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST /AS INDICATED BY                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/. THEREFORE...THIS EVENT MAY BE                  
WRAPPING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN MORNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT            
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THAT SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR         
NOW.                                                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON                          
TUESDAY...WHILE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS COMMENCE /DUE TO RIDGING               
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER              
60S AND LOWER 70S ON TUES AND WED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE           
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A                 
SHORTWAVE TROF TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND BRING             
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY NEXT FRIDAY.                                            
AT THIS TIME...NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER             
30S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST                    
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY HAVE A SHOT AT FROST MONDAY MORNING...AS                
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.                             
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  58  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
WACO, TX              69  61  72  66  78 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
PARIS, TX             58  50  69  62  74 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
DENTON, TX            63  58  71  61  74 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          61  56  69  62  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
DALLAS, TX            65  59  71  64  75 /  10  20  30  20  10                  
TERRELL, TX           64  57  71  65  76 /  10  10  30  20  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         67  58  72  65  79 /  10  10  20  20  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            69  62  72  64  80 /  10  30  30  20  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1123 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE              
TROUGH OVER COLORADO STRENGTHENS. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUST FORECAST             
SLIGHTLY AS SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY TOPPED 30KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT           
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE WEST           
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN BRINGING THIS                
FRONT IN MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO            
TO THE NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KGUY AND KDHT AND             
THEN BY ABOUT 11Z FOR KAMA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS BEHIND THIS              
FRONT AND HAVE KEPT WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING              
THE MORNING TOMORROW.                                                           
KIMBLE                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD START              
LATE THIS MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.            
WINDS SHOULD REACH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER              
SUNSET...SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE           
SCENE FRIDAY DAYBREAK.                                                          
NUNEZ                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI             
NIGHT AND INTO SAT.                                                             
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SFC LEE TROUGH TO DEEPEN TODAY             
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL            
INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPEARS           
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA              
CLOSEST TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE               
GRADIENT LIES. EXPECT WINDS TO COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...                 
HOWEVER HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AS NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED            
WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. CLOUDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE               
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING GENERALLY IN THE 50S.                        
THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST FRI WITH ITS                   
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE            
NORTH INITIALLY DELIVERING A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR. MEANWHILE A LOW          
OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO             
THE NORTHEAST AND GETS ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FRI NIGHT.               
COLUMN STARTS TO MOISTEN UP AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE               
EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRI EVENING. LEFT CHANCE POPS AS IS WITH                 
STRONG WAA PATTERN SETTING IN AND INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE                      
ADVECTION. AGREE WITH INHERITED FCST IN LEAVING THE PRECIP TYPE AS              
RAIN AS THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER THAN EARLIER RUNS. IN               
ADDITION SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS SFC TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. SFC            
LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...INTO THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS SAT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN LATE MORNING SAT. THIS WILL                   
GRADUALLY END ANY PRECIP BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL                  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.            
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUN WHILE               
MAIN SFC LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY           
AS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.                
UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING             
TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL           
GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSSES THE AREA            
WED KNOCKING TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY THU.                         
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW                    
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN                   
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THE FIRE                
DANGER RATING IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY...NOT ANTICIPATING RED FLAG           
CRITERIA TO BE MET AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20                  
PERCENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS...DRY AIR...AND            
MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE             
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.                           
CLK                                                                             
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
13/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
555 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD START              
LATE THIS MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.            
WINDS SHOULD REACH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER              
SUNSET...SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE           
SCENE FRIDAY DAYBREAK.                                                          
NUNEZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI             
NIGHT AND INTO SAT.                                                             
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SFC LEE TROUGH TO DEEPEN TODAY             
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL            
INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPEARS           
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA              
CLOSEST TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE               
GRADIENT LIES. EXPECT WINDS TO COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...                 
HOWEVER HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AS NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED            
WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. CLOUDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE               
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING GENERALLY IN THE 50S.                        
THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST FRI WITH ITS                   
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE            
NORTH INITIALLY DELIVERING A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR. MEANWHILE A LOW          
OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO             
THE NORTHEAST AND GETS ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FRI NIGHT.               
COLUMN STARTS TO MOISTEN UP AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE               
EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRI EVENING. LEFT CHANCE POPS AS IS WITH                 
STRONG WAA PATTERN SETTING IN AND INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE                      
ADVECTION. AGREE WITH INHERITED FCST IN LEAVING THE PRECIP TYPE AS              
RAIN AS THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER THAN EARLIER RUNS. IN               
ADDITION SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS SFC TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. SFC            
LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...INTO THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS SAT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN LATE MORNING SAT. THIS WILL                   
GRADUALLY END ANY PRECIP BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL                  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.            
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUN WHILE               
MAIN SFC LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY           
AS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.                
UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING             
TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL           
GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSSES THE AREA            
WED KNOCKING TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY THU.                         
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW                    
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN                   
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THE FIRE                
DANGER RATING IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY...NOT ANTICIPATING RED FLAG           
CRITERIA TO BE MET AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20                  
PERCENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS...DRY AIR...AND            
MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE             
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.                           
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
522 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI             
NIGHT AND INTO SAT.                                                             
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SFC LEE TROUGH TO DEEPEN TODAY             
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL            
INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPEARS           
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA              
CLOSEST TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE               
GRADIENT LIES. EXPECT WINDS TO COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...                 
HOWEVER HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AS NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED            
WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. CLOUDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE               
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING GENERALLY IN THE 50S.                        
THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST FRI WITH ITS                   
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE            
NORTH INITIALLY DELIVERING A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR. MEANWHILE A LOW          
OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO             
THE NORTHEAST AND GETS ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FRI NIGHT.               
COLUMN STARTS TO MOISTEN UP AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE               
EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRI EVENING. LEFT CHANCE POPS AS IS WITH                 
STRONG WAA PATTERN SETTING IN AND INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE                      
ADVECTION. AGREE WITH INHERITED FCST IN LEAVING THE PRECIP TYPE AS              
RAIN AS THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE CAME IN WARMER THAN EARLIER RUNS. IN               
ADDITION SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS SFC TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. SFC            
LOW THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...INTO THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS SAT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN LATE MORNING SAT. THIS WILL                   
GRADUALLY END ANY PRECIP BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL                  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE 60S.            
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUN WHILE               
MAIN SFC LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY           
AS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.                
UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING             
TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL           
GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSSES THE AREA            
WED KNOCKING TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY THU.                         
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW                    
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN                   
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THE FIRE                
DANGER RATING IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY...NOT ANTICIPATING RED FLAG           
CRITERIA TO BE MET AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20                  
PERCENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS...DRY AIR...AND            
MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE             
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.                           
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                60  34  52  42  67 /   0   0  10  50  30             
BEAVER OK                  58  27  47  35  62 /   0   0   5  50  30             
BOISE CITY OK              57  29  46  37  62 /   0   0  10  50  30             
BORGER TX                  59  36  54  44  65 /   0   0   5  50  30             
BOYS RANCH TX              60  33  50  42  66 /   0   0  10  50  30             
CANYON TX                  59  34  52  43  67 /   0   0  10  50  30             
CLARENDON TX               59  35  53  42  66 /   0   0   5  50  30             
DALHART TX                 60  30  48  39  63 /   0   0  10  50  30             
GUYMON OK                  58  29  49  39  64 /   0   0   5  50  30             
HEREFORD TX                59  34  52  43  66 /   0   0  10  50  30             
LIPSCOMB TX                58  29  49  37  62 /   0   0   5  50  30             
PAMPA TX                   58  35  53  42  64 /   0   0   5  50  30             
SHAMROCK TX                58  36  54  41  65 /   0   0   5  50  30             
WELLINGTON TX              59  37  54  44  67 /   0   0   5  50  30             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
958 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL DROP FZRA ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AS ONLY VERY LIGHT                 
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WILL LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE                     
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ABOVE FREEZING AIR IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WEST                
OF I-25.  PETERSEN                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE OBS SUGGEST MODERATE TO HEAVY                    
PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO MOST MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN VALLEY               
ZONES AS OF 03Z...WITH VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (AROUND 10K FEET)              
KEEPING SNOW LIMITED TO MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES. QUICK LOOK               
AT NEW 00Z NAM SUGGESTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES/WRN VALLEYS IS              
MOSTLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES                 
MAY BE OVERDONE AS A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT BEFORE               
MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO               
SNOW. WILL KEEP CURRENT GROUP OF MOUNTAIN HIGHLIGHTS INTACT...BUT               
WILL SCALE BACK SNOW ACCUMS IN AREAS BELOW 10K FEET MSL. EASTERN                
PLAINS FORECAST MUCH LESS CLEAR-CUT...AS NEW NAM HAS LITTLE TO NO               
PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALREADY UPDATED                
ONCE TO TRIM BACK POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MAY NEED TO CUT BACK                   
AGAIN IF NAM IS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT. WILL LET CURRENT ZR                  
ADVISORY RUN FOR NOW... BUT AM SERIOUSLY CONTEMPLATING DROPPING IT              
FOR ALL ZONES LATER THIS EVENING IF PRECIP IS SLOW TO DEVELOP.                  
10                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
.COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...                           
.FEET OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...                            
.WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO TONIGHT...                     
.STRONG/DAMAGE HIGH WIND THREAT SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY...                        
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED THE OPENING SUB-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CA BAJA             
MOVING EAST THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED                  
DIGGING TROUGH MOVING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. IN RETURN...VERY DEEP              
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WAS STREAMING ACROSS               
OLD MEXICO...THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO UT/CO. 12Z/30 OBS SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...AZ...NM...AND SOUTHWEST TX HAD PRECIPITABLE                
WATER INDICES OF 150-315 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS TIME OF               
THE YEAR...1.19 INCHES AT TUCSON...AZ. 700MB-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY            
VALUES ARE AROUND 5G/KG...WHICH IS A FAIRLY TROPICAL AIR MASS AND               
SOMETHING WE SEE AROUND HERE DURING THE SUMMER "MONSOON." GIVEN THE             
RELATIVELY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN               
FORMING ACROSS UT...WESTERN CO...AND NM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME                    
PERIODIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN PER SPOTTERS...OBS...AND              
LIVE WEBCAMS. WARM AIR ALOFT ALREADY BUILDING AS LA VETA PASS SENSOR            
STARTED IN THE 20S THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE             
30S DURING SOME PRECIPITATION. THE BOSQUE RAWS IN THE EAST SIDE THE             
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 8K FT MSL WAS IN THE                 
LOWER 50S...GOTTA LOVE CO COMPLEX TERRAIN. WE RECEIVED A SPOTTER                
REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW 5 ESE FORT GARLAND(8500 FEET MSL) AND              
THAT WAS IN ABOUT 6 HOURS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIVE                     
WEBCAMS(WOLF CREEK PASS...MONARCH PASS...SAN LUIS VALLEY) LOOK                  
RELATIVELY SNOWFALL-FREE. MEANWHILE...S51OW CP AIR MASS WAS ACROSS              
EASTERN CO INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE                   
STRUGGLING TO WARM IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY AND MAY NOT MAKE IT             
INTO THE 30S AROUND LAMAR. SURFACE WINDS WERE ALREADY VEERING TO THE            
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD WITH DEW POINTS IN             
THE TEENS.                                                                      
FOR THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                      
SATURDAY...QUITE THE ARRAY OF WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF CO GIVEN THE               
VERY COMPLEX AND C51ENGING WEATHER PATTERN. GIVEN THE DEEP                      
MOISTURE FLUX COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT AND                       
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT FOR SOME FAVORED AREAS...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD                  
BECOME MORE STEADY SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND             
HIGH VALLEYS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUAN...LA GARITA...COLLEGIATE...            
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST             
SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 8K FT MSL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE                  
MOUNTAIN PEAKS/HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. 1-4 FEET STILL LOOKS DOABLE                
AROUND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.              
LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WENT AHEAD AND              
ADDED ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OF THE               
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SAGUACHE COUNTY/LA GARITA MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE            
GUNNISON VALLEY AND THE REST OF LAKE COUNTY INCLUDING LEADVILLE.                
OTHER LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEY/HIGH VALLEYS LIKE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR             
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW...BUT BELOW ADVISORY VALUES.            
THE SNOW LIKELY ENDS FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET/PIKE PIKE                     
MOUNTAINS GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS                       
MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL TO SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP.                              
HOWEVER...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.                                                             
FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON               
THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY TOUGH CALL IN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.                 
STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES. IN            
RESPONSE TO THE CP AIR MASS POSSIBLY RECEDING EASTERN CO AND WARM               
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE THROUGH THE               
NIGHT. 295K/300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF                      
NM...EASTERN CO...AND ESPECIALLY KS/OK/TX. TOUGH TO TRULY SAY WHERE             
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AS ANY PRECIPITATION EVAPORATIVE OR              
DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP THE S51OW COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE                  
LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE WARM AIR BUILDS OVER EASTERN CO. IF             
THAT IS THE CASE...THEN THERE STILL COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF I-25 CORRIDOR AND NOT FOR               
THE RATON MESA OR PALMER DIVIDE GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NAM-WRF               
12KM SOUNDING FOR EADS HAS A FREEZING RAIN VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE.            
HOWEVER...IF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TROUBLES MATERIALIZING...OR                  
INCREASING IN INTENSITY...THEN THE WARM SOUTHERLY WIND COULD TAKE               
OVER. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CONSISTENTLY WARM              
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE            
UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS WHY I STUCK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF               
THERE IS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY TO                         
KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES...THEN IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS VIGOROUS                
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER TROP WINDS DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                
45-70KTS AROUND 800MB-700MB DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY.              
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IF THE SURFACE                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN TIGHTEN LIKE THE GFS...BUT THE NAM-WRF IS A               
LITTLE WEAKER. SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE...PLAN TO GO AHEAD WITH A HIGH            
WIND WARNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS AND GOES WELL WITH ABQ/AMA              
WARNING. STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW MOS             
GUIDANCE WITH DEEP VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST-WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. STAYED               
THE COURSE GIVEN SURROUNDING OFFICES. ONE FINAL POTENTIAL IMPACT                
ISSUE IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE WINDY TO STRONG WIND                   
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. FUELS ARE AT CRITICAL                
LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE                    
READINGS...BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20                  
PERCENT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ALREADY OCCURRING...WILL             
FORGO THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. 17                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO               
IMPACT REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH                      
IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWFA FROM                  
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS                      
PROJECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FROM                
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                                     
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE PAINTED SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO                  
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 58/59/60/61/68 AND 75 ON SATURDAY               
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE                  
CONTINUED TO PAINT RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS OVER THE CWFA FROM                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.                                    
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE                
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS                  
THEN RETURNING AGAIN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY                  
INTO NEXT FRIDAY.                                                               
AVIATION...BASED ON THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE PREVIOUS                    
DISCUSSION LOOKS ON TARGET. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE               
THREE SITES FROM 00Z TO 02Z. KALS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND                
KCOS SOME LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 07Z. KPUB               
WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS FOR RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF A            
BRIEFLY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE            
NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS SATURDAY.                 
TLM/17                                                                          
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR COZ093>099.                                                                 
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST                        
SATURDAY FOR COZ0095-096-098.                                                   
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ073-075.                                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067.                                                        
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR                      
COZ058-059.                                                                     
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ093>099.                
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST                        
SATURDAY FOR COZ084-085-095-096-098.                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ073-075.                                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST                
SATURDAY FOR COZ064.                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067.                                                        
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR                      
COZ058-059.                                                                     
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ093>099.                
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ095-096-                  
098.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ073-075.                   
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR                      
COZ064.                                                                         
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM MST SATURDAY FOR                     
COZ067.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/28                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
102 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS ARE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL TOWARDS THE END                
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF TODAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE                
MOVING ON TO THE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM              
THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUNCH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...CAUSING                 
THE WIND TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED FROM THE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY               
MID MORNING. THEN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN...CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE                  
WIND SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY OVER BY SBN. ALSO IN THE AFTERNOON                  
HOURS THE CEILING WILL BE LOWERING BUT STILL VFR. THEN WITH A WARM              
FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS                 
INTO THE EVENING...WILL BRING A WINTER MIX OF PRECIP TO THE                     
AIRPORTS. SOONER AT SBN THEN AT FWA. THIS WINTER MIX OF PRECIP IS               
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAFS...BUT AT THIS POINT SBN IS LOOKING TO               
AT LEAST DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A LITTLE BIT SMALLER                    
CHANCE THAT FWA WILL BY 06Z SUNDAY. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL GET A              
BETTER LOOK AT THIS COMING EVENING/NIGHTTIME FRAME IF CONDITIONS                
WILL INDEED DROP MORE THAN MVFR OR NOT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                              
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION.               
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CLEARED THE FA AND                   
VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH STAGGERING NEGATIVE THETA-E              
ADVECTION IS ONGOING PER ADVANCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LAKE EFFECT               
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.                           
HOWEVER...EXTREMELY DRY AIR FROM THE ADVECTING CP AIRMASS IS                    
LIMITING THIS PROCESS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF FALLING               
INTO THE 20S NORTHWEST WITH LOWER 40S STILL PRESENT OVER THE SE.                
FARTHER UPSTREAM....DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC               
IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN CA. PHASING BETWEEN                 
THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEST BAJA UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE VAST LARGE              
SCALE ASCENT AS THESE SYSTEMS EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY                      
TOMORROW...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER                 
THE CENTRAL US.                                                                 
TONIGHT...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE              
REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH                      
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN PLACE/LIGHT WINDS/AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE              
INCREASING CIRRUS SHIELD PER HEIGHT RISES...EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT              
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ANTICIPATED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
IF A FEW ARES IN THE NORTHEAST DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.                     
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS INDICATES ADVECTING AIR MASS HAS ALREADY                    
PRODUCED LOWS BELOW ZERO UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS EVEN WHERE SNOW              
WAS                                                                             
ABSENT.                                                                         
SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW                   
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS...FORCING THETA-E ADVECTION. VERY              
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST MODELS                   
INDICATE A DEWPOINT OF -40C AT H85 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE              
PER ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO FURTHER DRY THIS LAYER INTO             
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECWMF/AND GEM ALL INDICATE LIGHT PRECIP                
MOVING INTO REGION PER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/THETA-E ADVECTION. NAM/WRF            
CONFINES ALL PRECIP WEST OF THE FA. IN EXAMINING NMM AND RUC 13 SIM             
REFLECTIVITY...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY IS WEAK AND                  
HIGHEST RETURNS ARE NW OF THE FA. GIVEN STAGGERING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR            
IN PLACE AND ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING DRY SUBCLOUD AIR...HAVE             
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE NAM/WRF SOLUTION AS IT IS THE SLOWEST TO                 
ERODE THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE               
GIVEN MAIN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE               
WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE PLAIN STATES UNTIL THE EVENING.                
HENCE...FORCING AND ANY SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK THROUGH              
THE PERIOD. HAVE DROPPED POPS TO LIKELY NW...WITH CHANCE EVERY ELSE.            
BEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL RESIDE IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE                   
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...THINKING ANY PRECIP WILL BE            
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF ASCENT. RETAINED SNOW                 
SLEET MENTION NORTH...WITH RAIN/ZR/SLEET IN THE SOUTH PER TOP DOWN              
ANALYSIS. WITH ANTICIPATED LOW IMPACT AFTERNOON PRECIP...HAVE MOVED             
WATCH TO 00Z PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                            
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                      
SHRTWV DIGGING SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST THIS AFTN. IN RESPONSE,                   
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WAS OPENING UP AND LIFTING NE.                       
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS STREAMING NORTHWARD             
ACROSS MEXICO INTO SWRN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. GULF                    
MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE TAPPED AS SFC SYSTEM MOVES INTO PLAINS ON               
SAT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM                 
KS/NEB SAT EVE TO NRN LWR MI SUN EVE. STRONG WARM FRONT SE OF TRACK             
OF SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SAT NGT AND SUN MORNING.            
WARM/MOIST AIR BEING LIFTED OVER THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN                     
WIDESPREAD PCPN SAT NGT. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE... APPEARS WILL BE COLD             
ENOUGH ALOFT AND DRY ENOUGH IN LOW LEVELS FOR ONSET TO BE MAINLY                
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. STRONG WAA BETWEEN 5K-10K FT                  
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE THE SNOW/SLEET MIX TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET               
MIX. GENERALLY FOLLOWED NAM QPF FIELDS WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR             
A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIP SAT NGT. ALSO SLOPED FGEN FORCING              
FCST CONSISTENTLY BY MODELS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER BANDS AS                 
STRONG WAA ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER INCH OF             
GLAZE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO LEAVE WATCH UP FOR SAT NGT ACROSS             
NRN CWA AND EARLY SUNDAY NE.                                                    
AS LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WAA WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THIS               
AREA WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV NORTH              
WHERE MELTING ICE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHILE GENERALLY SPLIT                
MAV/MET DIFFERENCE ACROSS SOUTH. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC             
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVE. LAST                  
COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN INDICATING WK INSTABILITY                      
DEVELOPING OVER SRN PORTIONS OF CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW            
CONTD WITH SHOWERS BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING TSTMS TO THIS                
AREA IF MODELS PERSIST WITH THIS SOLUTION. WRAP AROUND AND LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO MON NGT.                                 
CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUE AFTN/NIGHT WITH SOME                
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WED NGT. RIDGING               
EXPECTED TO END THIS ACTIVITY THU, BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV AND WAA ON                
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY SPREAD SOME RN/SN INTO THE AREA ON FRI.               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR            
     INZ006-007.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR              
     INZ003>005-008-009.                                                        
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR            
     MIZ079>081.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR              
     MIZ077-078.                                                                
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR            
     OHZ001-002.                                                                
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR                 
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
AVIATION...LOTHAMER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1208 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION...                                                    
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
19Z SFC ANLYS INDICATED 1035 MB HIGH OVER NW IOWA WITH BROADER                  
EXTENT OF SURFACE HIGH INTO KANSAS AND MO. COLD AIR AT 850 HAS                  
PUSHED SOUTH OF IOWA INTO MO AND KS AS WELL...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR              
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS HIGH RETREATS EAST OF THE AREA                        
OVERNIGHT...A SLIGHT GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH               
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 06Z. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE             
PLACED LOW TEMPS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVER              
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A LIGHT SNOWFIELD NOW EXITS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 9             
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
AS TEMPS WARM IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING...SO WILL AN INCREASE IN               
CLOUDS FROM ADVANCING SYSTEM AND A SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY WIND                   
COMPONENT. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO THE NW OF                
THE AREA...HOWEVER QUITE RELATIVE AND STILL THINK SOME RADIATIONAL              
COOLING WILL WIN OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE                
BASICALLY USED AND ADJUSTED RUC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WAA ADVECTION             
IN THE MID AND LOWER LAYERS WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BY THE END             
OF TONIGHT SO HAVE 20 PERCENT CHCS OF PCPN THROUGH ABOUT A DNS-LWD              
LINE THROUGH 9 AM WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES            
BY 12Z (6AM) SATURDAY. INITIAL PCPN BURST WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET.               
SITUATION LOOKS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY SAT MORNING.  MODELS IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH FORCING AND QPF...BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE DETAILS              
ARE MOST PROBLEMATIC AND UNFORTUNATELY THE KEY TO THE FORECAST.                 
ALTHOUGH 18Z RUN HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT...12Z NAM WAS ON COOL END OF               
THERMAL ENVELOPE AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.  CONSIDERING THE                   
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE WITH               
FREEZING RAIN...FEEL THE NAM IS TOO COOL AND NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH              
WITH PRESSURE FALLS INTO MO VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT DEPICTED IN             
THE FORECAST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE             
CONVECTION EITHER WHOSE LATENT HEAT WOULD CAUSE SIMILAR WARMER                  
RESULTS.  WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED 09Z               
SREF SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND GFS FORCING WHICH SEEMED TO BE A NICE              
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOL NAM AND CONTINUALLY WARM END ECMWF.                 
MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE STRONG COOLING WHICH WE HAVE IN PLACE            
NOW...AND ALSO STRONG WAA SO WARMER END OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL              
HAVE TO BE WATCHED DURING TRANSITION.                                           
IN MORE DETAIL...FORCING REALLY INCREASES SAT MORNING AS SWRN TROUGH            
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  EARLY ON UVM IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY               
THERMODYNAMICS WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND                     
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON BACK EDGE.  THIS SHOWS UP QUITE WELL IN              
290-300K ISENT LAYER WITH PROLONGED AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT AND UVM.  KINEMATIC FORCING ALSO INCREASES AROUND 00Z WHEN            
PARENT SHRT WV LIFTS THROUGH.  THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN INTO AN                
EXTREME ICE STORM EVENT IN THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE WITH QPF                   
AMOUNTS HOVERING AROUND AN INCH...AND THIS MAKES SENSE WITH PWS                 
PUSHING RECORD VALUES.  THE PCPN WILL SWITCH TO RAIN SOUTH AND                  
HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE A PROLONGED EVENT THERE.                                    
HAVE SWITCHED WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH WHERE SNOW WILL               
FALL INITIALLY...CAPPED WITH SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN                
ACCUMS.  WITH SURGE OF WARM LAYER AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW                       
RATIOS...SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG BUT MAY DROP 1-5 INCH            
SNOWS WITH MAX ALONG MN BORDER.  CENTRAL AND SOUTH CLIPPED LENGTH OF            
HEADLINE SWITCHING TO ICE STORM WARNING WHERE PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE             
LIQUID BEFORE TEMPS APPROACH OR EXCEED FREEZING.  ALTHOUGH                      
APPRECIABLE PCPN MAY NOT FALL IN NRN PORTIONS AFTER 03Z...EVEN LIGHT            
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND                     
ACCUMULATE SO HAVE KEEP WARNING TIL 12Z.                                        
AFTER THE STORM DEPARTS...WENT AT OR BELOW THE COOLEST END OF                   
GUIDANCE.  MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ACCURATELY DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF              
COLD AIR BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS AND THAT DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO                  
ACCOUNT THE SNOW AND ICE THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE GROUND.                     
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                           
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRUSH NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.            
SOME FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR              
AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF WITH               
THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.            
WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR NOW. THE GFS BRINGS               
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH ACROSS IOWA LATE THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS               
THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE               
ANY ADDITIONAL POPS AT THIS TIME.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...1/06Z                                                               
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAFS IN REGARDS TO THE FROZEN PRECIP            
AND IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NORTHERN TAF SITES ARE MOST                       
PROBLEMATIC WITH FROZEN PRECIP...WHILE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS            
THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WAA. FOR MCW AND            
FOD HAVE FZRA FOR A LONGER TIME FRAME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE FZRA              
FOR A GOOD 6-8 HOURS. MCW AND FOD WILL LIKELY GET SOME MIX OF SN                
AND PL AT THE ONSET...BUT HAVE CHANGOVER TO FZRA BY 17-18Z. ALL TAFS            
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...HAVE IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 14-15Z WITH             
ONLY MCW DROPPING TO LIFR CONDITIONS B/T 19-23Z FOR VIS. DSM LOOKS              
TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GFS THE WARMER               
AND QUICKER MODEL IN THE CHANGEOVER THAN NAM. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE              
TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD PAST 15Z SAT.                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND               
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 PLUS TAMA COUNTY 12Z SAT-12Z SUN.  ICE STORM                
WARNING 12Z-21Z SAT REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDR/BSS/RPK...SHORT/LONG TERM                                                   
KLP...06Z AVIATION                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1224 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST)...                                              
LES IS DIMINISHING OVER NW UPPER MI AS EXPECTED. OBS INDICATE                   
PRONOUNCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE WITH SSW WINDS             
AT SAXON HARBOR/ONTONAGON AND NW WINDS AT ISLE ROYALE AND THE                   
KEWEENAW. ONTONAGON BRIEFLY SHIFTED NW AT 02Z BUT IS BACK TO                    
SW NOW. EVEN SO...THERE AREN`T ANY DOMINANT BANDS SHOWING UP ON                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LOWERING INVERSION/DRY AIR ARE APPARENTLY                  
NEGATIVELY IMPACTING LES. TO THE E...DOMINANT BAND...AIDED BY                   
ENHANCED LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE...HAS HAMMERED ERN PARTS OF ALGER              
COUNTY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES WERE PROBABLY                    
2-3IN/HR. BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING SW (NOW OVER MUNISING) WITH             
SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS ALSO                 
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT NOW. WIDE SEPARATION IS ALSO NOTED BTWN               
THE LES BANDS.                                                                  
GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION                       
OVERNIGHT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST. DOMINANT            
BAND IMPACTING ALGER COUNTY MAY SLIP A BIT FARTHER W INTO THE WRN               
PART OF THE COUNTY...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GIVEN LOWERING            
INVERSION. THEN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING               
LAND BREEZES TO BECOME EVEN MORE INFLUENTIAL...LES SHOULD BEGIN TO              
RETREAT CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES AND THEN ALMOST COMPLETELY OFFSHORE            
BY DAYBREAK. THIS INCLUDES NW UPPER MI AS WELL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL               
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ERN HEADLINE AREAS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1             
TO 4 INCHES...PROVIDED PRESENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS IT                  
SHOULD. TO THE NW...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.              
ELSEWHERE...WILL DROP MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W AS OBS SHOW                 
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR OR BLO FCST MINS ALREADY (KLNL ALREADY FELL TO            
-8F AND KIMT -2F). STRATOCU FIELD HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND FROM LAKE              
SUPERIOR RECENTLY AND CAUSED TEMPS TO SPIKE BACK UP...BUT THERE MAY             
STILL BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET AGAIN AFTER STRATOCU DEPARTS             
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE. MAY SEE -10F OR SO IN THE TYPICAL COLD                  
SPOTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED 440 PM EST)...                                         
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS               
NAMERICA WITH UPR GRT LKS DOMINATED BY ARCTIC BRANCH TROFFING                   
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. VERY COLD AIRMASS UNDER THIS TROF...WITH              
12Z H5/H85 TEMPS OF -40C/-31C AT YPL. PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS OVER              
THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (ARND 4C) IN WNW FLOW BTWN HI              
PRES NR OMA AND LO PRES MOVING THRU SE ONTARIO HAS RESULTED IN NMRS             
WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS THAT ARE IMPACTING THOSE PORTIONS OF THE FA             
FVRD BY WNW LLVL FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS DRY IN AN                   
ABSOLUTE SENSE (12Z PWAT ONLY 0.06 INCH AT INL WITH SFC DWPTS ARND              
-10F)...AN INSPECTION OF THE INL AND YPL RAOBS AS WELL AS THE 13Z               
TAMDAR SDNG FM HIB INDICATES THE LLVLS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST. IN                 
FACT...BACK EDGE OF LK SC IS NOT SEPARATING FM THE MN NORTH                     
SHORE...SUGING DRYING IS NOT OVERWHELMING THE LES INTENSITY YET.                
SPOTTER REPORTS FM THE E ARND GRAND MARAIS INDICATE UP TO 3 INCHES              
OF SN FELL IN JUST 3 HOURS OR SO THERE THIS MRNG WHEN LES BAND CAME             
ASHORE. OVER THE SCNTRL...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLR TO PCLDY WITH                 
TEMPS WELL BLO NORMAL FOR THE SEASON (17Z WIND CHILL AS LO AS -18F              
AT IWD). AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W CLOSER TO SFC HI PRES RDG IN THE              
PLAINS IS EVEN DRIER/MORE STABLE PER 12Z BIS/ABR SDNGS. A POTENT                
SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW IS DIGGING THRU CA (12HR H3 HGT                 
FALLS CLOSE TO 200M) WITH ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL JET DISTURBANCE MOVING            
NEWD TOWARD THE DESERT SW. HI CLDS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ARE                  
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A DECENT TAP OF                  
TROPICAL MSTR FLOWING N AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY.                                 
SHORT TERM (TNGT/SAT)...                                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS THRU TNGT.              
FOCUS ON SAT SHIFTS TO GATHERING STORM IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH            
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM AND TIMING OF ANY                
ACCOMPANYING PCPN INTO THE FA.                                                  
FOR TNGT...MODELS FCSTG 00Z-12Z H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M OVER THE                
UPR GRT LKS BTWN DEPARTING ARCTIC BRANCH TROF AND DEEPENING TROF IN             
THE W ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.                   
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG UNDER THESE HGT RISES AS WELL AS DRIER/              
MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOW OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A               
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES/WINDS/BLSN TNGT. HOWEVER... LES            
WL LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT E OF P53 IN MORE PERSISTENT WNW FLOW.            
SINCE GFS/NAM/LOCAL HI RES MODEL RUNS SHOW FAIRLY SHARP LLVL CNVGC              
PERSISTING OVER THE E BTWN LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW AND DVLPG WSW LAND             
BREEZE FLOW OFF LAND TO THE N OF HI CENTER TRACKING THRU WI...WL                
CONTINUE GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR THE E. EARLIER RUNS HAD SHOWN              
PERSISTENT LAND BREEZE CNVGC WITH LARGER SCALE WNW FLOW IMPACTING               
ONTONAGON COUNTY THRU THIS EVNG...BUT LATEST OB FM ONTONAGON SHOWS              
THE WIND THERE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE SSW. SO ALLOWED GOING WRNG            
FOR THAT AREA TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED. SINCE THE EARLIER                  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE LAND BREEZE CNVGC AXIS WOULD SHIFT STEADILY N            
THRU TNGT AFTER STALLING OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY...LIMITING THE                   
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE KEWEENAW... ALLOWED GOING WRNG TO EXPIRE AT             
00Z FOR KEWEENAW/NRN HOUGHTON AS WELL. BUT IF THE CNVGC AXIS                    
PERSISTS FARTHER N...THE WRNG FOR THESE ZNS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.            
OTRW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE             
INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION PER DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM EVEN THOUGH             
SOME HI CLD MAY DRIFT IN LATE. MANY INTERIOR PLACES WL SEE SOME SUB             
ZERO MINS.                                                                      
ON SAT...LINGERING LES OVER THE KEWEENAW/ERN ZNS WL END SAT MRNG AS             
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW BACKS TO S BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES TO THE E AND            
DVLPG LO PRES IN THE PLAINS. THERE WL ALREADY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID/            
HI CLD STREAMING INTO THE FA AT 12Z...AND THESE CLDS WL THEN LOWER              
AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF RETREATING H3 JET              
MAX AND DVLPG DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SHOWN ON THE GFS FCST                 
280K-310K SFCS. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THESE            
FEATURES...BUT NCEP PREFERS THE FASTER GFS. WENT LIKELY POPS NEAR               
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MSTR/SHARPER DYNAMICS                
AND/OR WHERE SE UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT ENHANCE MOISTENING. BUT            
TENDED TO GO SLOWER INTRODUCING THE HIER POPS FARTHER NE AS GFS                 
SHOWS SHARPER H8-6 FGEN/UPR DVGC TENDING TO REMAIN TO THE S THRU SAT            
AFTN. UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF SN MAY ACCUMULATE ALONG THE WI BORDER BY              
00Z SUN.                                                                        
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)...                                               
THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY               
SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                
06Z GFS HAD THE SURFACE LOW OVER S-SW WISCONSIN AT 12Z SUNDAY.  THE             
12Z NAM WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH THE LOW STILL OVER S-CENTRAL                 
IOWA.  IN FACT...IT IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  THIS            
COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF HEAVY SNOW OR MIXED            
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. TAKING THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE INTO               
ACCOUNT...THE 540 LINE IS LOCATED IN SIMILAR                                    
LOCATIONS...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE U.P. EXCLUDING KEWEENAW COUNTY              
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUCE COUNTY.  WILL NEED TO KEEP                
THIS IN MIND AS WE FIGURE OUT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                      
EITHER WAY...AFTER 03Z MONDAY...SNOW WILL DOMINATE UPPER MICHIGAN AS            
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD               
INTO LAKE HURON AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO.                               
WHEN COMPARING THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE                           
CAN/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/NAM...THE NAM WAS INDEED MUCH SLOWER.  AS A                 
RESULT OF THIS AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS                   
DISCUSSION THAT IT WAS ONE OF THE FARTHER SE MODELS....WITH LIMITED             
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT WAS DISCREDITED AND NOT USED IN THIS                
FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY.  AT 00Z MONDAY...THERE WERE                 
GENERALLY 3 TRAINS OF THOUGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW NAM...THE               
MORE NORTHERN AND CONSISTENTLY DEEPER UKMET/CANADIAN...AND THE                  
QUICKER GFS/ECMWF.  WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TO THE GFS/ECMWF WITH               
SOME THOUGHT GIVEN TO THE BLEND OF THE CANADIAN/UKMET.                          
SO...FORECAST WISE...WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY             
MORNING ON OUR STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.           
ELEVATED WARM LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY POSE A              
PROBLEM FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS POCKET 0 TO -2C BETWEEN 700 AND            
800MB SHOWS UP FROM 09Z-17Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT IMT WITH SFC TEMPS              
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.  SO HAVE UTILIZED THE 750MB GFS TEMPS              
HEAVILY WHEN FIGURING OUT WEATHER FOR...SINCE THE SNOW GROWTH REGION            
IS BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT RIGHT                 
AROUND 18Z...SO JUST SLIGHTLY BEFORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM.                       
STILL...BY THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL HAVE                   
FALLEN.  AS A RESULT...WARNINGS SEEM LIKELY.                                    
LOOKING AT MONDAY NIGHT/00Z TUESDAY THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE              
00Z ECMWF TO PUSH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND              
STATES...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR AT            
LEAST THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB LOW.  HOWEVER...CLOSER TO HOME THE              
NEXT EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE CAN BE EXPECTED TO             
SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY              
00Z WEDNESDAY.  THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM.  THE 06Z GFS...WITH ITS STRONGER TROUGH...KEEPS THE GENERAL             
TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT              
FRIDAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKER RENDITION...THE             
00Z ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR SMALL SCALE RIDGING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE             
TIME FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON.  SO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT                     
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.  HPC GUIDANCE WAS            
HEAVILY UTILIZED...FOR DAYS 4/TUESDAY THROUGH 7/FRIDAY.  THIS DID               
NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z CANADIAN...BUT WAS INSTEAD THE 00Z ECMWF EARLY              
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLE               
MEAN FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN              
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS                 
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL EXTEND FROM OUR REGION THROUGH               
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MIDWEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MID AFTN. AFTER THAT...              
APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL RESULT IN A RAPID LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS            
TO MVFR/IFR AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER               
DETERIORATE TO VLIFR IN MDT/HVY SN THIS EVENING. AT KCMX...LINGERING            
-SHSN SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR VIS/CIGS FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING. MIGHT             
SEE SOME BRIEF IFR VIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. CONDITIONS WILL              
GO TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES EXIT.                   
THEN...JUST LIKE KSAW...THERE WILL BE A RAPID LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS              
TO MVFR/IFR LATE IN THE AFTN AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VLIFR                
CONDITIONS IN MDT/HVY SN AND BLSN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS EVENING.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO TO MOVE TO MAINE TONIGHT AS            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND              
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING WNW GALES THIS EVNG WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNGT              
AS THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PUSHES EWD. THE            
HIGH WILL REACH WESTERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE            
OF 29.2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING REACHES LAKE            
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ESE GALE SAT            
NGT INTO SUN AS THIS LOW GRINDS INTO HI PRES TO THE NE AND SHARPENS             
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS. THE LOW WILL THEN REACH THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE            
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER N GALE EVENT IS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO            
MONDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE RIDGE             
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY FROM ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN LAKE                     
MICHIGAN. ATTM...EXPECT N WINDS TO 30 KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT                  
TIGHTENS OVER THE UPR LKS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST                  
     SUN MIZ001-003>007-014-085.                                                
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SAT TO 1 PM                 
      EST /12 PM CST/ SUN MIZ002-009>013-084.                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL 3 AM EST SAT MIZ085.                           
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SAT MIZ006-007.                        
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DRY AIR ALREADY PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...SO TAP OF                     
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY                 
TODAY. RUC INDICATES A FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS ALOFT THIS             
MORNING...CLOSER TO THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF WITH THE                  
COLDER AIR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. AS A NOTE...EARLIER RAIN HAD             
TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AT KGCN AS OF 09Z.                                         
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST                
PLATEAU...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED                
THUNDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE COULD                   
RESULT.                                                                         
A 12 TO 16 MB SURFACE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN            
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.  WITH 50 KT WINDS SHOWING UP ON KTCC AND               
WSMR WIND PROFILERS TONIGHT...ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR TODAY/S WIND                  
HIGHLIGHTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CONCERNED LINCOLN COUNTY MAY TO BE               
UPGRADED...AS THEY MAY EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CLEARING TODAY. AREAS              
OUR WEST MAY ALSO BLOW CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY.                            
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO TURN ANY REMAINING RAIN TO               
SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE W...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL              
MOUNTAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT ONCE THE               
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF SOME SORT OF WINTER            
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON             
LATER SHIFTS.                                                                   
THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH ANY LINGERING             
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEK            
IS NOW LOOKING AS IF IT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO STORMS ON THE HORIZON             
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  48  30  46  20 /  80  40  10   0              
GALLUP..........................  47  25  45  10 /  70  50  10   0              
GRANTS..........................  50  27  47  13 /  60  40  10   0              
GLENWOOD........................  60  32  61  21 /  70  20  10   0              
CHAMA...........................  36  23  38  10 /  90  60  20   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  29  46  20 /  80  50  10   0              
RED RIVER.......................  35  18  37   4 /  80  50  10   0              
TAOS............................  42  24  44   8 /  80  40  10   0              
SANTA FE........................  49  28  46  19 /  70  40  10   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  30  48  23 /  70  40  10   0              
ESPANOLA........................  50  32  52  17 /  70  40  10   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  34  51  29 /  50  30  10   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  33  52  22 /  50  30  10   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  52  31  47  25 /  50  30  10   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  53  33  52  26 /  50  30  10   0              
SOCORRO.........................  59  34  57  24 /  40  10  10   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  27  45  23 /  50  30  10   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  29  51  21 /  40  30  10   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  37  57  24 /  40  10  10   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  57  32  50  25 /  60  10  10   0              
RATON...........................  54  27  49  14 /  50  20  10   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  30  48  23 /  50  30  10   0              
ROY.............................  57  32  53  25 /  40  20   5   0              
CLAYTON.........................  63  35  54  28 /  40  10   5   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  63  34  59  26 /  40  10   5   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  40  60  29 /  40  10   5   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  39  59  27 /  40  10   5   0              
CLOVIS..........................  66  41  60  30 /  40  10   0   0              
PORTALES........................  66  40  63  29 /  40  10   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  64  44  64  32 /  40  10   5   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING            
ZONES ABOVE 7500 FEET...NMZ002-004.                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING               
ZONES...NMZ005>007-011>013.                                                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES...NMZ010-016>021-026.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
320 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH IMPACT WINTER                
STORM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                        
DATA ANALYSIS AT 07Z SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM             
THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO WISCONSIN...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
WAS FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY                
TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PROFILER             
DATA SHOWING 40 KNOT 850MB WINDS FROM OKLAHOMA...INTO SOUTHERN                  
NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT THE 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOT FROM                       
NCEP IS SHOWING QUITE IMPRESSIVE VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                     
PLAINS WITH OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT KOKC. MEANWHILE INFRARED              
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.             
00Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM                   
PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY DIFFERENCES IS SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE             
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT             
OF WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE                 
WARMER SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND FOR THE WARM AIR ALOFT             
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.                                                        
IN THE SHORT TERM...BOTH THE 00Z ARXMESOWRF AND RUC SHOWING                     
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z              
THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET. AS                
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED            
NORTHWARD ON ANOMALOUS 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GOOD DIVERGENCE             
ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 150-180KT 300MB JET NORTH OF              
THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH                 
THE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE...THE QUESTION BECOMES PRECIPITATION             
TYPE AS WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED NORTHWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY                  
CONSISTENT WITH SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT BETWEEN 800MB-650MB THIS              
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TOP DOWN APPROACH FROM AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE SNOW TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS            
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY INTO                  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY TONIGHT. WITH MODEL QPF OUTPUT             
OF OVER AN INCH...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET                
AND FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN              
TAYLOR COUNTY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION              
TYPES FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHEST ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHERN ONE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE THAN ONE QUARTER              
OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS            
EVENING. BUFKIT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS AROUND             
THE AREA...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRANCHES BREAKING AND POWER                    
OUTAGES DUE TO ICING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT TO              
MORE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AS HIGH ICE PRODUCING CLOUDS EXIT THE             
AREA. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATA BASE HAS THIS WELL IN HAND            
AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT.                   
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO RESULT IN CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY            
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE CHANCES WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.              
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS QUITE BLUSTERY IN ITS WAKE.             
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR                  
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER.                                                         
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS                   
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.                                                      
TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY...AS WE WILL BE WARMING THROUGHOUT THE               
DAY TODAY AND HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF              
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. COOLER AIR THEN ARRIVES ON              
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY SEEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE             
USED A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                  
NIGHT TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT.                                                
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                   
THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE TO                 
DROP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME THAT COULD             
BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS COVERED IN THE GRIDS              
WILL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO                
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE                  
GRIDDED DATABASE IN THIS TIME FRAME.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
A VERY POTENT/HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE                
AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE              
AND DEEPEN OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING. A VERY STRONG                
SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW BETWEEN 2-5KFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT                   
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL             
CAUSE SNOW TO RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA  DURING THE MID-LATE                  
MORNING HOURS AND WILL CAUSE RAPID REDUCTIONS IN CLOUD CEILINGS                 
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE             
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z SATURDAY UNTIL            
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AGAIN...THE PRECIPITATION            
AT BOTH KLSE AND KRST TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING...            
BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON            
INTO THIS EVENING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA.                
PLEASE SEE LATEST TAFS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WINTER                   
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                
     WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-                   
     WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                        
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                
     MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                          
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                
     IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RABERDING                                                     
AVIATION..........DAS                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
920 AM MST SAT DEC 01 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HIGHLIGHTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.            
DECENT SHOWER BAND ROTATING THROUGH OUR MOUNTAINS NOW APPEARS                   
STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SO I WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR            
THE PLAINS IN AN UPCOMING ZONE UPDATE. SCOURING OF LOW LEVEL AIR IS             
ALSO NOT HAPPENING YET...AND I AM SKEPTICAL OF IT COMING RAPIDLY TO             
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND            
LIKELY DENVER CYCLONE/SHEAR ZONE DEVELOPMENT. THIS MEANS A LITTLE               
FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ON THE PLAINS...AND IN FACT ALREADY HAD A               
LITTLE SHOWER BAND COME THROUGH WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO CLOSE INTERSTATE            
25 NORTH OF WELLINGTON. SO...ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR               
THE AREA OF HIGHEST THREAT TIMED TO THE MAIN SHOWER BAND MOVING                 
THROUGH. PROBABLY SOME FREEZING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE SOUTH              
END OF THE BAND APPEARS WEAKENING...LOWER THREAT ACROSS DENVER.                 
EARLIER ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN/SNOW COMBO              
IN ZONE 32...KREMMLING HAD HALF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE             
EARLY MORNING HOURS...REPORTEDLY SNOW IN THE GRANBY/FRASER AREAS.               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM...DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX OVR SRN                  
CA AT THE BOTTOM OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE GREAT              
BASIN. NEWRD PROGRESS OF THE UPR LOW APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP                  
SPEED. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN CORT               
MAXIMA TIMED TO REACH NWRN AND CNTRL COLORADO BY AROUND MIDDAY. THAT            
MATCHES UP PRETTY CLOSELY WITH TIMING OF THE RUC...BUT MUCH QUICKER             
THAN THAT OFFERED BY THE NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER CAN`T IGNORE THE JET              
LEVEL ENERGY AND CAA STILL COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.             
SUSPECT WE`LL SEE A RESURGENCE OF CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL LATER THIS                
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH PASSAGE OF THE            
700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS. QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE               
UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION MOVING OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.               
FURTHERMORE A SHIFT TO W-NWLY FLOW AND RESPECTABLE CAA SHOULD KEEP              
SNOW FLYING IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS AT LEAST THRU THIS EVENING.                     
THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVSY FOR MTN ZONES                 
31..33 AND 34 UNTIL 06Z/ TONIGHT. CAME UP WITH ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES               
DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS USING OUR LOCAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL. BY              
THE WAY...COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND OVERLAID BY WARMER            
VERY MOIST AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND               
KREMMLING. MAY SEE THIS TYPE OF PCPN FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE                  
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH GREATER MIXING LATER THIS MORNING.                   
AS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS...SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC HAS                  
CONTINUED TO SQUELCH PCPN FORMATION. DID SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AT            
DENVER`S INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND A MIX OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE FAR               
NERN CORNER SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. EVEN WITH QG                 
OMEGA FIELDS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA            
WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS LATER THIS MORNING...BELIEVE PCPN CHANCE            
WILL REMAIN LOW ON THE PLAINS. AS FOR THE FREEZING RAIN ADVSY...HAVE            
SWAPPED IT OUT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVSY WHICH WILL NOW COVER A                
FEW LESS COUNTIES IN THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE...LGT SNOW AND FOG NOW APPEARS WILL BE MORE OF A HAZARD TO              
TRAVELERS OUT THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING.                                        
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS MOVING OUT AND LOW-LVL            
WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO A N-NWLY COMPONENT...SHOULD SEE FAIRLY                 
RAPID CLEARING FROM THE FRONT RANGE EWRD. TEMPERATURES TODAY                    
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...BUT THE            
FAR NERN CORNER MAY NOT ENJOY MUCH OF THIS WARM-UP WITH LINGERING               
LOW CLOUDS AND CAA.                                                             
.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WLY ON SUN WITH SOME LINGERING              
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC -SHSN.             
OVER THE PLAINS IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE NWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW             
IN PLACE.  TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER THAN SAT AS SOME CAA OCCURS              
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A              
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO              
BUILD ACROSS THE RGN.  TEMPS ON MON SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO            
POSSIBLY NEAR 60 ACROSS NERN CO AS LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES MORE WLY AND            
850-700 MB TEMPS WARM FROM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C.                                    
BY TUE A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD              
LEAD TO A DRY AND MILD DAY.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE             
TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS NERN CO.  ON WED A WEAK UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY             
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SOME -SHSN IN THE MTNS.  MEANWHILE A WEAK             
CDFNT WILL AFFECT NERN CO ON WED WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BY AROUND 10              
DEGREES OR SO.  CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LACK OF MOISTURE WITH               
THIS FNT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY ON WED OVER THE PLAINS.                          
FOR THU AND FRI THE LATEST GFS SHOWS WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO             
WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE A CHC              
OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER NERN CO.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z BUT THE              
AMOUNT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...MAYBE .01 OR .02 INCH. COLD               
AIR IS SHALLOW SO ICING THREAT IS MAINLY AT THE GROUND AND ABOVE                
9000 FEET MSL AND MAINLY NORTH OF DIA. THE THREAT OF ANY SNOW IS LOW.           
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH NOON FOR ZONE 32.                             
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL 06Z            
      FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 31..33 AND 34.                    
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ZONES 35..38 AND 43.               
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM FOR ZONES 42..44..48>51.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GIMMESTAD/BAKER/KLEYLA                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
400 AM MST SAT DEC 01 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX OVR SRN CA AT THE BOTTOM OF A HIGH            
AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN. NEWRD PROGRESS OF                
THE UPR LOW APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP SPEED. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD                 
SHIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN CORT MAXIMA TIMED TO REACH NWRN              
AND CNTRL COLORADO BY AROUND MIDDAY. THAT MATCHES UP PRETTY CLOSELY             
WITH TIMING OF THE RUC...BUT MUCH QUICKER THAN THAT OFFERED BY THE              
NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER CAN`T IGNORE THE JET LEVEL ENERGY AND CAA STILL            
COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SUSPECT WE`LL SEE A                    
RESURGENCE OF CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST             
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-500 MB TROUGH                 
AXIS. QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE UPWARD QG VERTICAL              
MOTION MOVING OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE A SHIFT              
TO W-NWLY FLOW AND RESPECTABLE CAA SHOULD KEEP SNOW FLYING IN THE               
N-CNTRL MTNS AT LEAST THRU THIS EVENING. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE              
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVSY FOR MTN ZONES 31..33 AND 34 UNTIL 06Z/                  
TONIGHT. CAME UP WITH ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS               
USING OUR LOCAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL. BY THE WAY...COLD AIR TRAPPED            
IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND OVERLAID BY WARMER VERY MOIST AIR ALOFT HAS              
BEEN PRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND KREMMLING. MAY SEE THIS                
TYPE OF PCPN FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH               
GREATER MIXING LATER THIS MORNING.                                              
AS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS...SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC HAS                  
CONTINUED TO SQUELCH PCPN FORMATION. DID SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AT            
DENVER`S INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND A MIX OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE FAR               
NERN CORNER SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. EVEN WITH QG                 
OMEGA FIELDS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA            
WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS LATER THIS MORNING...BELIEVE PCPN CHANCE            
WILL REMAIN LOW ON THE PLAINS. AS FOR THE FREEZING RAIN ADVSY...HAVE            
SWAPPED IT OUT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVSY WHICH WILL NOW COVER A                
FEW LESS COUNTIES IN THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE...LGT SNOW AND FOG NOW APPEARS WILL BE MORE OF A HAZARD TO              
TRAVELERS OUT THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING.                                        
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS MOVING OUT AND LOW-LVL            
WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO A N-NWLY COMPONENT...SHOULD SEE FAIRLY                 
RAPID CLEARING FROM THE FRONT RANGE EWRD. TEMPERATURES TODAY                    
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...BUT THE            
FAR NERN CORNER MAY NOT ENJOY MUCH OF THIS WARM-UP WITH LINGERING               
LOW CLOUDS AND CAA.                                                             
.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WLY ON SUN WITH SOME LINGERING              
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC -SHSN.             
OVER THE PLAINS IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE NWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW             
IN PLACE.  TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER THAN SAT AS SOME CAA OCCURS              
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A              
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO              
BUILD ACROSS THE RGN.  TEMPS ON MON SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO            
POSSIBLY NEAR 60 ACROSS NERN CO AS LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES MORE WLY AND            
850-700 MB TEMPS WARM FROM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C.                                    
BY TUE A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD              
LEAD TO A DRY AND MILD DAY.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE             
TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS NERN CO.  ON WED A WEAK UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY             
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SOME -SHSN IN THE MTNS.  MEANWHILE A WEAK             
CDFNT WILL AFFECT NERN CO ON WED WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BY AROUND 10              
DEGREES OR SO.  CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LACK OF MOISTURE WITH               
THIS FNT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY ON WED OVER THE PLAINS.                          
FOR THU AND FRI THE LATEST GFS SHOWS WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO             
WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE A CHC              
OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER NERN CO.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CNDTNS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS.                   
SCATTERED -SHSN THIS MORNING AND ISOLD -SHRA LATE MORNING AND                   
AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS.                           
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL 06Z FOR            
THE NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 31..33 AND 34.                              
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF                 
NORTHEAST PLAINS...ZONES 42..48>51.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/KLEYLA                                                                    
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
401 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...                                          
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY              
EVENING TO INCLUDE NORTHERN SWEET GRASS AND WHEATLAND COUNTIES.                 
TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. MAIN PROBLEMS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW                
WILL FALL AND THEN BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOW STRONG WILL WINDS             
ACROSS THE AREA GET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN A BIG WAY WITH              
THE COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. BEST RESULTS                    
CONTINUE TO BE LOOKING AT SHORT RANGE RUC AND WATCHING TRENDS.                  
LATEST RUNS REALLY DIDN`T SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL                   
ZONES THIS MORNING...YET PICKING UP CLOSE TO HALF AN INCH ALREADY               
IN BILLINGS. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL         
DEFORMATION COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS IS ALL ON              
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF AN ALREADY STRONG STORM SYSTEM PULLING OUT                
OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL                   
INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED BOTH MODELS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH                  
150KT JET STREAM. THUS MODEL RESULTS ARE SKEWED THAT DIRECTION.                 
THIS MAY ACCOUNT FOR WHY THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS FAILED TO PICK UP               
ON THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OCCURRING. 06Z WRF AND RUC ARE NOW               
INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH IS AN IMPROVEMENT.                    
CURRENT THINKING HERE IS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF                        
PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...MERGING INTO A SINGLE                 
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE FIRST WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN               
ZONES. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FROM NEAR LEWISTOWN              
TO HARLOWTON TO NORTHERN PARK COUNTY...WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT                  
FROM NE ROSEBUD COUNTY TO SHERIDAN. THIS IS THE AREA OF UPPER                   
DEFORMATION AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE VERY MUCH UNTIL               
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER STORM SYSTEM                         
ACCELERATES OUT OF THE ROCKIES PULLING IT EAST. CURRENTLY HAVE                  
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF AN INCH BUT                    
LOCALLY COULD SEE MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS IF CURRENT LEVEL OF               
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. AIRMASS IS PERFECTLY SET UP FOR STRONG                 
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY PERSISTENT BANDS             
CLOSELY FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THE SECOND PRECIPITATION AREA                 
WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SHERIDAN TO BAKER LINE. LATEST               
WRF INCREASED QPF FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN              
INCH. LATE IN THE DAY THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AREA WILL SHIFT               
EAST INTO THIS AREA TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES SO THESE NEW MODEL                
TOTALS MAY BE CLOSE. BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN              
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR                
POSSIBLE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TODAY. AGAIN WITH                 
THE MODELS DOING VERY POORLY RIGHT NOW OVER OUR AREA CONFIDENCE IS              
PRETTY LOW TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END OVERNIGHT TONIGHT                    
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES AS MAIN SYSTEM PULLS WELL AWAY FROM THE                  
AREA.                                                                           
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA                
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY.                  
THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TEMPERATURES HOLDING PRETTY CLOSE TO                   
MORNING LOWS TODAY...AND POSSIBLY DROPPING LATER IN THE DAY AS THE              
LOW SPINS UP OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING.                                             
TOMORROW WILL SEE A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM PUSH INTO THE AREA                
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND AS DOWNSLOPE                   
WINDS SCOUR OUT THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS STRONG JET                 
STREAM WILL ALSO BE THE IMPETUS FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE              
FRONT RANGE OF THE BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS. LATEST MODEL                  
GUIDANCE FAVORABLE FOR WARNING TYPE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED                
THE NORTHERN SWEET GRASS AND WHEATLAND COUNTY AREAS IN THE WATCH                
AS LATEST WRF INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN STRONG WINDS TO DESCEND               
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER AREAS                   
GETTING CLOSE TO NEEDING WATCH BASED ON WINDS WORKING TO THE                    
SURFACE ARE THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS AND THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG                
HORN MOUNTAINS. INCREASED WINDS IN THESE AREAS TO JUST BELOW                    
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. KEPT WATCH TIMING IN TACT BUT MAY NEED TO                   
CONSIDER EXTENDING THE TIMING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY WITH ANY                     
UPGRADES. CHAMBERS                                                              
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...                           
FLAT RIDGE PROGGED OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS               
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LEE               
TROUGH IN PLACE. RAISED WINDS A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY                  
NIGHT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TUESDAY AS THE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITION               
TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. RAISED POPS A                
BIT AND PUSHED THEM EAST FOR MONDAY AS STRONG ENERGY CRESTS THE                 
RIDGE WITH DECENT FRONTOGENESIS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE GFS IS               
USUALLY PRETTY GOOD AT PICKING UP THESE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS                  
AND ARE OFTEN INCORRECTLY DISCOUNTED DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE                    
INFLUENCES. RAISED POPS TO GUIDANCE VALUES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD                 
MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH                 
BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND BACK DOORS A COLD                
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE IDEA OF SCATTERED POPS                   
OVER THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND                
A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A RIDGE IN QUICKLY               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SPLITTING PIECE OF ENERGY THURSDAY                
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS IN THIS               
SOLUTION WITH THE SPEED BEING A LITTLE QUICKER. DID NOT CHANGE                  
POPS MUCH AS MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                
PATTERN BECOMES QUITE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO                  
NEXT WEEKEND. BLANKETED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST                   
SHOT LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL.                  
HUMPHREY                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL PERSIST                    
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS                  
CAN BE EXPECTED. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER                
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE TO VFR THEN. A                   
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT                       
TONIGHT. HUMPHREY                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 018 008/029 028/042 025/049 026/038 022/036 022/038                         
    8/S 00/N    03/O    20/B    03/S    30/B    22/S                            
LVM 018 011/035 035/046 035/048 026/038 022/036 022/038                         
    8/S 20/N    23/O    20/N    03/S    30/B    32/S                            
HDN 017 008/030 022/043 021/051 022/039 019/037 019/039                         
    8/S 00/B    03/O    20/B    02/S    20/B    22/S                            
MLS 018 004/025 021/038 022/046 023/033 019/031 019/033                         
    6/S 00/B    00/B    00/B    02/S    20/B    02/S                            
4BQ 019 005/030 021/043 021/049 022/037 018/028 018/037                         
    8/S 30/B    00/B    00/B    02/S    20/B    02/S                            
BHK 019 002/025 017/037 021/043 022/031 018/028 012/030                         
    6/S 20/B    00/B    00/B    02/S    20/E    02/S                            
SHR 019 006/030 018/045 028/049 021/038 018/036 018/038                         
    6/S 20/B    00/B    00/B    02/S    20/B    22/S                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                    
      MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28-41-63-65-66.                                  
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
608 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY              
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY                  
NEXT WEEK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE CASCADES              
AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO.               
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN                  
LATE ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR TODAY TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES                
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON INCLUDING SPOKANE AND PULLMAN.             
THE 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT                   
BRINGING A WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY AXIS THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON              
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC...PRODUCE               
SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM COLVILLE TO RITZVILLE AND POINTS EAST.                     
RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN               
INCH. STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE              
OVERNIGHT AS A MORE POTENT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING                
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. /GKOCH                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z OVER THE EASTERN THIRD             
OF WASHINGTON. CEILINGS WILL TEMPORARILY DROP TO BETWEEN 2000 AND               
3000 FEET IN THE SPOKANE...COEUR D`ALENE...AND PULLMAN AREA BETWEEN             
18Z AND 00Z. A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. VISIBILITIES              
AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH                    
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN KEAT...KOMK...KGEG...KSFF...             
AND KCOE. ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AIRPORTS. /GKOCH                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        24  21  30  29  38  32 /  40  70  90 100  90  60                 
COEUR D`ALENE  23  20  30  28  36  31 /  40  80  90 100 100  60                 
PULLMAN        29  25  34  32  40  37 /  30  30  70  80  80  60                 
LEWISTON       33  29  39  34  45  39 /  30  20  60  80  70  50                 
COLVILLE       27  21  29  27  35  30 /  40  90 100 100 100  70                 
SANDPOINT      24  19  29  27  31  30 /  40  90 100 100 100  70                 
KELLOGG        28  23  33  28  36  33 /  40  80 100 100 100  80                 
MOSES LAKE     27  22  33  31  42  32 /  20  60  80  90  80  40                 
WENATCHEE      29  23  30  28  35  32 /  20  80 100 100  80  40                 
OMAK           25  17  29  26  32  28 /  20  90 100 100  90  50                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY            
     FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR            
     COEUR D`ALENE AREA.                                                        
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR            
     CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.                                               
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY            
     FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.                              
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY            
     FOR WATERVILLE PLATEAU...WENATCHEE AREA.                                   
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR            
     SPOKANE AREA...UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY             
     FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES.                                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY           
     FOR OKANOGAN VALLEY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
227 PM MST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL TO AFFECT CO FOR NEXT 12-18 HOURS...                
...WELL NEEDED SNOWPACK FORMING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                
CURRENTLY...WELL ADVERTISED HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT OCCURRING                 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SNOW AND              
RAINFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH              
THIS MORNING. AN NWS SPOTTER REPORTED 1.96 INCHES OF RAIN...ALL                 
RAIN...6 WEST OF WESTCLIFFE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE            
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 8700 FEET MSL. ALL RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN            
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. A FEW LOWER ELEVATIONS                 
ACROSS WESTERN CO RECEIVED UP TO A LITTLE OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.            
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN SNOTEL DATA...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT                  
MSL...HAD SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AROUND 1.00 INCH. LIKELY                 
APPROACHING 3 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS                
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT WAS 29 INCHES             
OF SNOW(5.40 INCH WATER) FOR WOLF CREEK...AND STILL SNOWING 1 INCH              
PER HOUR. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR                    
ANALYSES SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. SIGNIFICANT            
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL /DRY/SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF CO               
WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL NOTED BACK IN THE RELATIVELY              
COLDER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. REGIONAL RADAR             
HAS NOT SHOWING MUCH...EXCEPT SOME ISOLD-SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS            
ACROSS THE OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS...BUT VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION.              
TEMPERATURE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS ARE STILL IN THE                  
30S/40S...SO ANY INTENSE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE A             
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A QUICK 1 INCH OF SNOW IN HEAVIER            
SNOW BURSTS. LIVE WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME MINOR WEATHER IMPROVEMENT             
ACROSS WOLF CREEK AND MONARCH PASSES...BUT SNOW APPEARS TO BE                   
CONTINUING AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE HIGHWAYS. MEANWHILE...               
ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS               
WERE OCCURRING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY 35-55 MPH...EXCEPT SOME 60-70            
MPH WIND GUSTS AROUND LA VETA/WALSENBURG IN THE GAP FLOW. WE HAVE               
NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING GUST CRITERION YET AND WILL BE CLOSE              
FOR THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING. LA JUNTA JUST HAD A PEAK WIND OF             
53KTS(60 MPH) AROUND 123 PM. ONCE THE WIND KICKED-IN...TEMPERATURES             
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS SHOT INTO THE 60S-LOWER 70S. GREATEST            
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE AROUND NORTHWEST KS PER MSAS DATA...SO               
SURFACE LOW TO LIKELY /JUMP/ TO THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY                  
EVENING.                                                                        
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NOT DONE WITH THE SYSTEM JUST YET.            
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL            
ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS MIGHT KEEP THE WIND BLOWING...ESPECIALLY                  
WINDY-VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST WEST OF            
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL WINDS               
VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SHIFT              
THE MORE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED QPF/SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS              
AND THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED PART OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS             
AROUND CUMBRES. PLAN TO CONTINUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR EASTERN               
SAN JUAN...LA GARITA...AND COLLEGIATE MOUNTAINS HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL            
PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW OR SO FOR THE WOLF CREEK                      
AREA...AND ANOTHER 6-12 INCHES FOR THE COLLEGIATE PEAKS. BLOWING                
SNOW WILL CREATE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER. EXTENDED THE SNOW AND                   
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR LEADVILLE AND CLIMAX ZONES AS STEADY SNOW             
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF THE             
COLLEGIATE PEAKS INTO THESE AREAS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW                 
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS WITH                
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES. SOUTHEAST CO WILL BE                         
PRECIPITATION-FREE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.                                                            
SUNDAY...STILL ANTICIPATING THE WEATHER TO QUIET-DOWN. RELATIVELY               
WEAKER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MIDDLE            
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY...SO SLIGHTLY                 
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. METZE                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND                  
MAINLY WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION ARE THE PRIMARY                           
METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM.                                    
LONGER TERM COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW               
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                         
THURSDAY...WHILE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN              
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY.                                                             
FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE                        
SOUTHWESTERLY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR BAJA...WITH NEXT                
NORTHERLY SURGE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO REGION BY LATER SATURDAY.               
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT THAT HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF                         
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD OCCUR                
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE                  
CWFA REMAINING GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY                
BE INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY.                                           
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE NOTED MONDAY AND                
TUESDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT SATURDAY...OVERALL          
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE                          
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES DURING THE LONG TERM. RELATIVELY LOW GRADE              
GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE POSSIBLE                  
EXCEPTIONS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE               
FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY TOMORROW. A FEW              
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF KALS TONIGHT. METZE                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ093>099.                 
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR                        
COZ058-059-064.                                                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
1105 AM MST SAT DEC 01 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SHOWER BAND MOVED ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN EXPECTED SO             
I WILL CANCEL ALL OF THE ADVISORIES EXCEPT THE ONE FOR THE HIGHER               
MOUNTAINS. WEST WINDS OFF THE GROUND APPEAR TO BE DRYING                        
SUFFICIENTLY TO KILL SHOWERS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. I WILL STILL             
LEAVE LOW POPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE LEERY OF THE                     
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WINDS...HOPING THEY WILL NOT GET TOO DEEP.                 
SHIFTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD...DENVER WILL BE ON THE EDGE             
OF THE COLD AIR THIS AFTERNOON. SO STILL LOW POPS FOR SOME MORE                 
FREEZING PRECIP IN THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM...DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX OVR SRN                  
CA AT THE BOTTOM OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE GREAT              
BASIN. NEWRD PROGRESS OF THE UPR LOW APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP                  
SPEED. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN CORT               
MAXIMA TIMED TO REACH NWRN AND CNTRL COLORADO BY AROUND MIDDAY. THAT            
MATCHES UP PRETTY CLOSELY WITH TIMING OF THE RUC...BUT MUCH QUICKER             
THAN THAT OFFERED BY THE NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER CAN`T IGNORE THE JET              
LEVEL ENERGY AND CAA STILL COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.             
SUSPECT WE`LL SEE A RESURGENCE OF CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL LATER THIS                
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH PASSAGE OF THE            
700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS. QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE               
UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION MOVING OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.               
FURTHERMORE A SHIFT TO W-NWLY FLOW AND RESPECTABLE CAA SHOULD KEEP              
SNOW FLYING IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS AT LEAST THRU THIS EVENING.                     
THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVSY FOR MTN ZONES                 
31..33 AND 34 UNTIL 06Z/ TONIGHT. CAME UP WITH ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES               
DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS USING OUR LOCAL OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL. BY              
THE WAY...COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND OVERLAID BY WARMER            
VERY MOIST AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND               
KREMMLING. MAY SEE THIS TYPE OF PCPN FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE                  
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH GREATER MIXING LATER THIS MORNING.                   
AS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS...SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC HAS                  
CONTINUED TO SQUELCH PCPN FORMATION. DID SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AT            
DENVER`S INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND A MIX OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE FAR               
NERN CORNER SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. EVEN WITH QG                 
OMEGA FIELDS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA            
WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS LATER THIS MORNING...BELIEVE PCPN CHANCE            
WILL REMAIN LOW ON THE PLAINS. AS FOR THE FREEZING RAIN ADVSY...HAVE            
SWAPPED IT OUT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVSY WHICH WILL NOW COVER A                
FEW LESS COUNTIES IN THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE...LGT SNOW AND FOG NOW APPEARS WILL BE MORE OF A HAZARD TO              
TRAVELERS OUT THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING.                                        
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS MOVING OUT AND LOW-LVL            
WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO A N-NWLY COMPONENT...SHOULD SEE FAIRLY                 
RAPID CLEARING FROM THE FRONT RANGE EWRD. TEMPERATURES TODAY                    
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...BUT THE            
FAR NERN CORNER MAY NOT ENJOY MUCH OF THIS WARM-UP WITH LINGERING               
LOW CLOUDS AND CAA.                                                             
.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WLY ON SUN WITH SOME LINGERING              
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC -SHSN.             
OVER THE PLAINS IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE NWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW             
IN PLACE.  TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER THAN SAT AS SOME CAA OCCURS              
IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A              
RATHER DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO              
BUILD ACROSS THE RGN.  TEMPS ON MON SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO            
POSSIBLY NEAR 60 ACROSS NERN CO AS LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES MORE WLY AND            
850-700 MB TEMPS WARM FROM 5 TO 6 DEGREES C.                                    
BY TUE A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD              
LEAD TO A DRY AND MILD DAY.  WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE             
TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS NERN CO.  ON WED A WEAK UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY             
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SOME -SHSN IN THE MTNS.  MEANWHILE A WEAK             
CDFNT WILL AFFECT NERN CO ON WED WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BY AROUND 10              
DEGREES OR SO.  CURRENT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LACK OF MOISTURE WITH               
THIS FNT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY ON WED OVER THE PLAINS.                          
FOR THU AND FRI THE LATEST GFS SHOWS WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO             
WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE A CHC              
OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER NERN CO.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THREAT OF SHOWERS IS NOW LOW AND THE TEMPERATURE WILL               
LIKELY STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THE REST OF THE DAY. WE MAY FLIRT              
WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...            
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL.                     
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL 06Z            
      FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 31..33 AND 34.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GIMMESTAD                                                                       
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
940 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT CO...                                 
QUICK UPDATE TO STAY AHEAD OF THE STORM AND SENSIBLE WEATHER                    
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
CURRENTLY...AS ANTICIPATED THE LAST FEW DAYS QUITE A VARIETY OF                 
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CO. ALREADY 1-2 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE                          
COLLEGIATE/MOSQUITO MOUNTAIN RANGES AND STILL SNOWING. SNOTEL DATA              
INDICATED AROUND 1.00 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE                  
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT              
MSL. MEANWHILE...HERE IS THE FASCINATING AND UNIQUE EVENT THAT                  
OCCURRED IN DEC. AN NWS SPOTTER REPORTED 1.96 INCHES OF RAIN 6                  
WEST OF WESTCLIFFE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO              
MOUNTAINS AROUND 8700 FEET MSL. ALL RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE               
MID 30S LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL                     
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AIR                         
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S.                      
ALSO...HAD SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY WITH THE               
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN MAKING IT               
THROUGH THE SHALLOW TRAPPED COLD AIR IN THE 20S ACROSS PUEBLO                   
COUNTY. THE FREEZING RAIN NEVER MATERIALIZED ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY              
AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. TEMPERATURES DID CLIMB INTO THE                
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS DURING LAST NIGHT.               
THE NEXT STORY IS WIND GUSTING TO 40-70 MPH AROUND LA VETA PASS                 
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGH                 
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE                
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL /DRY/ SLOT IS              
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO NM AND SOUTHERN CO. THUS...REGIONAL RADAR                
DATA SHOWED ECHO RETURNS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPING OFF. ANY SNOWFALL IS            
NOW LIKELY AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HIGHER TERRAIN.                        
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO IN DEALING               
WITH THIS STORM. NOW KIND OF PHASE 2....BELIEVE THE PRECIPITATION               
CHANCES HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND                 
EASTWARD GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL /DRY/ SLOT WILL BE TAKING OVER.                  
THERE STILL COULD BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...BUT               
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOW VERY LOW OR NIL. CANCELLED THE                    
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AROUND CANON CITY CONSIDERING IT IS                      
APPROACHING 50F THERE. SINCE CANON CITY IS NEAR THE                             
MOUNTAINS...THEY STILL COULD SEE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IT                
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WINDY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DAY FROM THE               
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS TO THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS WITH WIND GUSTS OF                
45-65 MPH. LA VETA IS LIKELY GETTING SOME ENHANCED GAP FLOW WITH                
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH...BUT THAT IS STILL BELOW THE WARNING                      
CRITERIA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES AND                      
BLOWING...WILL BE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. METZE                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
COZ058-059-064.                                                                 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ093>099.                 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ073-075.                       
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-066-                  
068.                                                                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ067.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
330 PM EST SAT DEC 01 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING               
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER                  
TEENS.  HOWEVER...A COMPLEX YET POTENT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING                   
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH                 
MONDAY.  WHILE THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION...A WINTERY                  
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED.  ONCE THIS                 
SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE REGION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED                  
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL SNOW            
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
INTERESTING MESOSCALE FEATURES AS COLD/DRY AIR DRAINAGE IS UNDERWAY             
WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS DATA SHOWING DUE NORTH                
WINDS FUNNELING DOWN INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY.  DEWPOINTS HAVE                    
RESPONDED WITH CURRENT READINGS BELOW 0F.  HOWEVER...UPSTREAM CI/CS             
FROM PENDING STORM SYSTEM IS FAST APPROACHING.  SO THIS SHOULD                  
RESULT IN AN INITIAL DROP IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH                    
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY AND/OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.                   
CURRENT PROJECTIONS FROM THE RUC AND UPSTREAM TIMING FROM THE                   
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIP...PLACES THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA               
(CATSKILLS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS) WITH A              
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO             
FALL AS VIRGA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
THE WINTER STORM...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE               
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WILL MAKE A BEELINE NORTHEAST TO LAKE                 
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...WELL AHEAD THE             
SURFACE WARM FRONT...WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY                 
MORNING. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND SOME SUGGESTION OF             
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION...THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY DRY            
UPON FALLING (VIRGA) AND THIS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDAY             
HOURS.                                                                          
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...WAS ALREADY WORKING INTO             
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                               
AFTER THAT...THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO                 
REACH THE GROUND. WE STILL THINK PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS                  
MOSTLY SNOW (WITH PERHAPS A TOUCH OF SLEET) WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY                
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                  
THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE STORM LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER             
DARK ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING MORE TO             
THE EAST...AS IT ENCOUNTERS TOO MUCH COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
FURTHER NORTH...WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AROUND                      
MIDNIGHT...THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.                
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER AIR JET...NOT SHABBY AT AROUND 100             
KTS...WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION AHEAD THE SURFACE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT             
SUNDAY. DIVERGENCE FROM THIS JETSTREAK...WILL INTERACT WITH                     
VORTICITY SPIRALING TO THE THE TRIPLE POINT OCCLUSION...TO REAP A               
SECONDARY COASTAL STORM INITIALLY OFF THE JERSEY COAST.                         
THIS SECONDARY STORM WILL QUICKLY SPIN UP...AS THE ORIGINAL SURFACE             
STORM GETS "CHOKED" OFF FROM THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. BY MONDAY                  
AFTERNOON...THIS STORM LOOKS TO HAVE DEEPEN AT LEAST 10MB FROM THE              
MORNING HOURS AS IT PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD. THE STORM WILL FURTHER             
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE MONDAY.                       
AS THIS POINT...WE DO BELIEVE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING WILL NOT BE                  
EXCESSIVE OVER OUR REGION AS THE H7 LEVEL REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AS              
OPPOSED TO CUTTING OFF...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT IS NOT TO             
SAY THERE WILL BE NO ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION AND SOME FRONTOGENTIC               
FORCING...JUST NOT EXCESSIVE.                                                   
THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE ULTIMATE               
PTYPES THAT WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS            
WE LOOKED AT THUS FAR...NAM/GFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS...INDICATE            
MOST IF NOT ALL SNOW WILL FALL UP WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.                
SOUTH OF A BENNINGTON...GLENS FALLS...JOHNSTOWN LINE...THE CHALLENGE            
OF PTYPES INCREASES GREATLY. THE NAM REMAINS A BIT COLDER THAN THE              
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE                  
COLUMN. HOWEVER...ALL MOS MACHINE GENERATED TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT              
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EVENT FROM ALBANY NORTH. THE MET DOES THE             
SAME FOR POUGHKEEPSIE...WHILE THE MAV NUMBERS DO NOW POP UP BRIEFLY             
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TOMORROW. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A             
SNOW/SLEET MIX FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTH TO THE UPPER MID HUDSON              
VALLEY...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN BRIEFLY GOING TO LIQUID RAIN               
DOWN NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE A BIT WARMER               
ALOFT...SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN COULD EASILY MAKE INTO THE CAPITAL             
DISTRICT AND AFTER AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WOULD GO              
TO LIQUID RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.                                        
THE CHANGE OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE COLUMN WILL CREATE A                     
DIFFERENCE IMPACT ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL.                     
ERGO...THERE COULD BE HUGE VARIATIONS ON SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS               
AND OR ICING ACCRETIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.                              
ONCE THE SECONDARY STORM MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE COLUMN WILL                    
QUICKLY COOL DOWN AND MOST PRECIPITATION THAT CONTINUES TO FALL WELL            
AFTER 12Z MONDAY WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST IF NOT ALL                  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHUT DOWN TO OUR SOUTH BY MIDDAY...LINGERING               
SNOW COULD PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH A LITTLE LONGER.             
IN FACT...AS THE SECONDARY WINDS UP...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT/TROAL              
COULD ENHANCE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION. BY THIS TIME...THIS             
REGION WILL LIKELY COME UNDER THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION.                 
BEFORE THIS TIME NO ONE IN OUR AREA IS THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH                
REGION...AS IT REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE THE AREA OF MAXIMUM UPWARD                
MOTION.                                                                         
THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON LIQUID EQUIVALENT                      
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHICH APPEAR TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH OR              
SO ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY.                                    
SINCE WE FEEL THE MOST CONFIDENT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR                 
NORTHWEST...WE WILL ISSUE WARNINGS THERE. ELSEWHERE...SINCE THERE               
ARE STILL TOO MANY METEOROLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES...WE WILL LEAVE THE             
WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORM...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC            
AIR WILL BLAST INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS...EG 850 AND 925                
HPA...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH WINDS LETTING               
UP IN THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK                  
VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DIMINISHING AS ONE GOES EAST.                  
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FUNNEL SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                  
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOME TERRAIN                   
ENHANCED SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES EAST                   
OF ALBANY. A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE ACTION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                      
STORM FROM THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE OCEAN                    
WITH A SECOND LOW CENTER RACING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE                   
MID ATLANTIC COAST.                                                             
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE GFS MODEL AND NCEP BOTH AGREE THAT                    
THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TAKE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY               
PATH AND SHOULD HEAD OUT TO SEA BEFORE IT TURNS FAR ENOUGH NORTH                
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER.  MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST                     
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AND TO THE VICINITY                   
OF CAPE HATTERAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER SOME LAKE EFFECT                    
SNOW MAY START UP THURSDAY AND PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT                     
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY                        
MORNING WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. ON                         
FRIDAY OVERRUNNING WARMER AIR MAY BRING ABOUT SOME LIGHT                        
SNOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FIVE TO TEN                    
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK.  MVFR                 
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY ENCROACH ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER             
DARK AS WELL.                                                                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...WILL PROBABLY NOT             
PRODUCE ANY PROBLEMS AT THE TAFS THROUGH THE EVENING.                           
THEN...A STEADY RAIN IS POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS            
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOWING COLD FRONT. THE RAIN COULD                
FALL MODERATELY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE                
PERIOD. AT THAT TIME...WE EXPECTED CEILINGS TO DIP TO BELOW THE IFR             
THRESHOLD AND THEY MIGHT JUST STAY THERE A GOOD PORTION OF THE                  
DAY.                                                                            
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN.                              
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR WITH WDLY SCT -SHSN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
COMPLICATED FORECASTING SITUATION COMING UP WITH THE WINTER                     
STORM BRINGING SNOW MIXING AND/OR CHANGING TO RAIN/FREEZING                     
RAIN. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO                       
THE RIVERS WOULD BE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HUDSON RIVER IN ULSTER                   
AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE LOWER HOUSATONIC RIVER                     
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN CONNECTICUT. COMPLICATING THIS SITUATION                 
WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL BEFORE WARMING ALOFT TURNS THE                  
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN...AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET OVER THE                       
HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW ON THE                        
GROUND WILL SOAK UP MUCH OF THE RAIN...PERHAPS RELEASING                        
SOME OF IT GRADUALLY STARTING MONDAY MORNING UNTIL THE                          
COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND PUTS THE                      
MELTING PROCESS TO AN END. IF THERE IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF                    
FREEZING OR SLEET...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE HELD ON THE                    
GROUND AS ICE. IN THIS TYPE OF A STORM THERE ARE A LOT OF                       
UNCERTAINTIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF                         
FLOODING SHOULD MORE WARM AIR GET DRAWN INTO THE STORM...                       
RAINFALL IS HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...AND TEMPERATURES RISE                       
INTO THE MID OR UPPER 40S. THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS                          
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL ONLY GET A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING                      
FOR SEVERAL HOURS MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THUS RIVER RESPONSE                       
WILL BE LIMITED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.                                                    
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR NYZ039-040-047>054-058>061-063>066.                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR              
     NYZ032-033-038-041>043-082>084.                                            
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY                    
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.                                                    
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR              
     VTZ013>015.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HWJIV                                                              
LONG TERM...RCK                                                                 
AVIATION...EH                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1045 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST IN POP/WEATHER GRIDS TO FINE               
TUNE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. BASIC THEME OF THE FORECAST REMAINS               
UNCHANGED HOWEVER.                                                              
FREEZING RAIN STRETCHES ALL THE WAY DOWNSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST                 
ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF MO BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. THE              
LATEST RUC RUN SUGGESTS WE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO FAST ON THE                
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.                                                             
ICE ACCUM REPORTS ARE STARTING TO NEAR THE 1/4 INCH MARK.N IF                   
WINDS PICK UP AS EXPECTED...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME POWER                    
LOSSES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-                
     BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.                      
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-            
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.                                          
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-IOWA-               
     JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.                          
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-JO             
     DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.                                              
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR HANCOCK-               
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.                                                
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-HENRY IL-          
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND.                                                 
MO...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-                 
     SCOTLAND.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WOLF                                                                            
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS A DEEPENING UPR TROF               
OVER THE W...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG MOVING INTO THE UPR GRT LKS             
IN THE WAKE OF TROFFING EXITING SE CAN. SFC LO PRES IS TAKING SHAPE             
OVER THE WCNTRL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH 12Z GRB/            
MPX RAOBS SHOW VERY DRY LLVL AIR WAS PRESENT OVER THE UPR MIDWEST/              
GRT LKS...SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR SHOWN BEST BY THE 12Z H85 RAOBS IN            
STRONG WAD REGIME BTWN DVLPG LO AND DEPARTING SFC HI OVER THE SE GRT            
LKS HAS CAUSED SN TO SPREAD QUICKLY TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND AS FAR              
NE AS AIT IN NCNTRL MN TO LSE BY 16Z. H85 DWPT CLOSE TO 10C NEAR MKC            
WITH SW WINDS AT H85 TO 50 KTS. PCPN MARCH TO THE NE HAS ALSO BEEN              
AIDED BY UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET ACRS SE CAN.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND SUNDAY)...                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THIS PD ARE SN AMTS/POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN/             
GOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG STORM IN THE CNTRL PLAINS.                
NAM/GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC               
MSLP FIELD TO UNFOLD THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS GUIDANCE FCSTS THE                   
PRIMARY LO CENTER TO TRACK FM NEAR OMA AT 00Z TO NRN LWR MI BY 00Z              
MON...WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NWWD FM THE MAIN LO INTO THE CWA             
IN RESPONSE TO APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE MAIN            
IMPACT OF THIS MORE SRN TRACK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE VERY                
COLD LLVL AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE UPR LKS...WL BE LESS MIXED PCPN AND             
MORE SN THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...WITH BULK OF MIXED PCPN PROBABLY                 
RESTRICTED TO THE FAR S FM SRN MNM COUNTY TO THE GARDEN PENINSULA.              
CURRENT TRENDS SUG SN WL RPDLY OVERSPREAD THE FA SW-NE THIS AFTN/               
EARLY EVNG AS NAM/GFS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE                 
280-300K SFCS AND DVLPG UPR DVGC IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE COUPLED UPR              
JET BTWN RRQ OF FEATURE IN SE CAN AND EXIT REGION OF JET LIFTING OUT            
OF WRN TROF INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVNG. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE               
MSTR RETURN NOTED IN THE PLAINS...PREFER THE SOMEWHAT HIER GFS FCST             
MSTR RETURN. GFS SHOWS 4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE 295K SFC                 
(ARND H725) ARRIVING OVER THE SRN TIER BY 06Z...SUPPORTING GENERAL              
SN FALL RATES OF 4"/6 HRS. FCST SSE FLOW SUGS SOME LK ENHANCEMENT               
PSBL OFF LK MI...SO WL BOOST RATES UP TO 6 INCHES/6 HRS IN AREAS                
FAVORED BY THIS FLOW IN THE 00Z-06Z PD ONCE LLVL DRY IS COMPLETELY              
ERODED. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/NAM HINT DRY SLOTTING ALF WL OVERSPREAD              
THE CWA W-E AFT 06Z...CUTTING OFF THE BETTER DYNAMICS/MSTR FM THE               
BEST SN GROWTH LYR. THE RESULT WL BE A REDUCTION IN THE SN INTENSITY            
W-E AFT MIDNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ. AS MENTIONED ABV...WL             
RESTRICT MENTION OF OTHER MIXED PCPN TO JUST THE FAR S...WITH A                 
CHGOVER TO SLEET OVER THE FAR SCNTRL PER WRMG OF THE COLUMN ABV FRZG            
ARND H7. BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SN EVEN THERE WITH             
WRMG OF THE COLUMN OCCURRING AFT BULK OF UVV HAS ENDED AND DRIER AIR            
MOVED IN ALF. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY             
RISE.                                                                           
ON SUN...TRACK OF UPR JET TO THE S FCST TO MAINTAIN MORE UPR DVGC/              
DEEP LYR H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC OVER THE E THAN FARTHER W. SO EXPECT               
STEADIER SN TO LINGER THERE THE LONGEST. INVERTED TROF EXTENDING WNW            
FM THE LO CENTER MOVING INTO NRN LOWER MI WL ALSO LIKELY SERVE AS A             
FOCAL POINT FOR STEADIER SN WITH THE NE FLOW OFF LK SUP ON THE NRN              
FLANK OF THIS FEATURE ACTING TO ENHANCE THE SN A BIT OVER THE NW.               
HOWEVER...TRACK OF SHRTWV TO THE N THAT IS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE            
INVERTED TROF WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY WRAP ARND PCPN BY TENDING           
TO MAINTAIN THE DRIER AIR ALF. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SFC                
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S AND ABV FRZG OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS...SUSPECT            
TEMPS ABV FRZG WL BE LIMITED TO VERY CLOSE TO LK MI/THE BAY OF GREEN            
BAY GIVEN CHILL OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS THAT WL BE MAINTAINED ON THIS             
SIDE OF THE MAIN SFC LO TRACK.                                                  
SINCE NO WRNGS HAVE VERIFIED YET...WL LEAVE GOING WSW HEADLINES AS              
IS FOR NOW TO AVOID ANY VERIFICATION PENALTY. IF ANY CHG NEEDS TO BE            
MADE...IT MIGHT BE TO END THE WRNG EARLIER OVER THE W AND PSBLY                 
EXTEND THE WARNING OVER THE E ON SUN AFTN DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY              
LINGERING DYNAMICS DEPART.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW SHOWERS...THANKS TO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY            
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN UPPER                  
PENINSULA.                                                                      
AT 00Z MONDAY THE STORMS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED                  
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL LAKE HURON.  THE 00Z CANADIAN                  
CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN MOST OF THE MODELS AND WILL NOT BE                  
UTILIZED FOR THIS FORECAST.  EVEN THE 00Z UKMET HAS FALLEN MORE INTO            
LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS...TRACKING TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z               
MONDAY.                                                                         
EITHER WAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS                  
LOW...AS IT STAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS ONLY ABLE TO                 
PROTRUDE IN SLIGHTLY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EVEN THEN IT LOOKS               
LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY SCOOT OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT OR                
TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE            
06Z GFS MUCH QUICKER...AND DEEPENING THE LOW OVER THE INDIANA AND               
OHIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS IS NOT BACKED UP BY OTHER MODELS AND            
WILL BE DISCREDITED AFTER THIS POINT.                                           
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...FOR DAYS 4/WEDNESDAY THROUGH                    
7/SATURDAY...MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE                
LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC.  OTHER THAN SOME                 
SMALL SCALE FEATURES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE            
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.                           
HPC GUIDANCE WAS ONCE AGAIN HEAVILY UTILIZED...FOR DAYS 3/4                     
TUE/WED THIS WAS THE ECMWF...AND FOR DAYS 5 TO 7 THU TO SAT A BLEND             
OF THE ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS ENS MEAN.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS                  
MODERATE TO LOW BEYOND DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.  AT 12Z SATURDAY FOR                    
EXAMPLE...THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN                  
WISCONSIN.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A 998MB LOW OVER               
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE.                           
SO...CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD MAINLY INCLUDED...                                  
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THAT WE MAY NEED TO ALLOW FOR FALLING                        
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...LOOKING AT 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...THEY WILL BE SLOWLY BE INCREASING              
OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER TO THE                       
EAST...-15C SEEMS PRETTY ENTRENCHED OVER THAT AREA.  IT LOOKS LIKE              
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT -18C AT 850MB WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY              
EVENING.                                                                        
SEVERAL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE WINDS...WHICH RESULTED IN SMALL                 
CHANGES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD GO DOWNHILL FAST WITHIN THE NEXT            
FEW HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF                     
SNOW...WORKS INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE SNOW DOES DEVELOP  EXPECT IT TO            
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SEE NO REASON            
WHY BOTH CMX AND SAW WONT REMAIN IN LIFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS                   
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY            
SUNRISE. SOME CONCERN THAT BY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...8 TO                    
12Z...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS DRY UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS             
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH            
18Z AS DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS TIME.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 29.2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY              
WILL RACE NORTHEAST REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON            
WHILE WEAKENING TO 29.6 INCHES. THE LOW WILL THEN RELOCATE OVER                 
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 30.5            
INCHES WORKS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  WITH THE LOW             
NEARBY...GALES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON...AND STILL REMAINING AROUND            
30KT EAST HALF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                            
THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING             
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 29.9 INCHES MAKES ITS WAY FROM ALBERTA              
TO THE WEST END OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE               
WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ SUNDAY               
FOR      MIZ002-009>013-084.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY             
     FOR MIZ001-003>007-014-085.                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267.              
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                 
     LSZ265.                                                                    
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                 
     LSZ263-264.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                          
     LMZ221-248-250.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
354 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG WAA CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ATTM                
PER RUC/SREF PROGS. BEST SNOWFALL RUNS FROM WEST CENTRAL MN                     
THROUGH CENTRAL MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI IN DEFORMATION ZONE. AXIS                 
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO PLOW               
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT WEST CENTRAL MN                    
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE MOVES NORTHEAST                
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG LAYER FWF IS DEPICTED ALONG WITH                        
INSTABILITY ABOVE. SO A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW PROGGED. SLEET HAS              
DOMINATED OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME                
REPORT OF DEPTHS REACHING 4 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN IS NOW STARTED                
TO BE REPORTED HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE NOSE OF               
THE WARM LAYER ABOVE 0 DEG C IS LOWERING PER LAPS/RUC PROFILES.                 
DECISION WAS TO LEAVE THE WARNING IN PLACE WITH VARIOUS PRECIP                  
TYPES OCCURRING ALONG WITH 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. CHANGES                
WILL LIKELY BE MADE DURING THE EVENING. SMALL AREA OF DRYING                    
ALOFT EVIDENT FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHWEST TO FAIRMONT WHICH               
WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING                  
ALOFT STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SATURATED LOW LEVEL                     
PROFILES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.              
FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL LOOKING GOOD. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY                
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEEK AHEAD                   
FEATURES A STRONG CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION                    
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD CONTINUITY FROM DAY TO DAY ON THIS              
SYSTEM. RAISED POPS SOME MORE. WITH THE STORM TODAY TAKING A LOT                
OF OUR TIME...LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BOOST POPS INTO THE LIKELY               
CATEGORY. YET ANOTHER SNOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND PER                
THE ECMWF WHICH AGREED MORE WITH HPC THINKING OVER THAT OF THE GFS.             
THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND IS ONE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SOME                   
COLD NIGHTS IN BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SNOW EVENTS DURING THE NEXT                  
SEVEN DAYS WITH SNOW NOW COVERING THE GROUND. NIGHTS WHERE SKIES                
ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL LIKELY FEATURE LOWS IN THE SINGLE               
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS                  
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE AT THE TAF SITES              
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE SLEET/SNOW MIX ALONG THE MN/IA                    
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD. A PERIOD OF SLEET OR A                   
SLEET/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWF/KMSP/KEAU...MAINLY BETWEEN              
00Z AND 06Z. BRISK WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLOWING            
AND DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE                  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KEAU/KMSP/KSTC AFTER                  
06Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN               
06Z AND 12Z.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE           
     EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-                        
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-                        
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE                
     LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-                  
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                  
     WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                         
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-            
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
245 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN PRECIP AREA HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN                  
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER MOTION FIELD. SOME LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES                
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE HANGING AROUND                 
FREEZING. WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.                 
EXPECT WEDGE OF WARM AIR TO PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND                 
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z BASED ON 15Z RUC13. RUC13 ALSO SUGGESTING                 
BAND OF PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME             
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL                
WAVE APPROACHES AND SURFACE FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. SOME CHANCE OF              
ISOLATED THUNDER YET IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY             
IN THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES IN WITH SOME 850-700MB            
MOISTURE AROUND. LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST               
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO PLAN ON CONTINUING HEADLINES FOR NOW AND               
CANCEL EARLY IF THINGS IMPROVE SOONER.                                          
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE            
IN THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THEN CLEARING AS HIGH              
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM               
QUICKLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF                 
CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                          
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH VARYING MODEL              
SOLUTIONS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD USHER IN COOLER               
TEMPS. DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY FROPA FOR NOW AS MOISTURE                       
AVAILABILITY MAY BE A CONCERN. BEYOND THAT...RELIED HEAVILY ON HPC              
GUIDANCE WHICH USED A BLEND OF 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THIS                
SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE              
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS IDEA FROM THE 12Z GFS...IT`S STILL               
NOT TOTALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. THUS...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS MID WEEK FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT THEN HAVE TRENDED            
DRY FOR SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR KOFK...ZR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  ICING                  
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES 2-4 MILES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU 06Z.                
MAIN ICING AREA IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY NORTH OF KBVN TO KSUX. SOUTH              
OF THIS AREA AT KOMA AND KLNK OCCASIONAL RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WITH               
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.  SOME VISIBILITIES MAY GO                
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN FG WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO            
NORTHWEST TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  CLOUD CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE            
DURING MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-                   
012-015>018-030>033.                                                            
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/DEWALD/SMITH                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1103 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                      
CORRECTED TIME OF UPDATE                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL                
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF LINCOLN AND                  
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES.  ALSO ADDED A WIND ADVISORY TO THE                   
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE            
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY                
SHOWS CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS THAT CROSSED                   
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.                    
FURTHER...LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT 10K FT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 45 TO              
55 KNOT RANGE...AND BOTH TEMPERATURES AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE                
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY. THUS...STRONGER SURFACE WINDS            
SHOULD RESULT. LEFT THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OUT OF THE WIND                 
ADVISORY BECAUSE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED NORTH OF                       
ALBUQUERQUE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO PREVENT NORTHERN SAN JUAN                  
COUNTY FROM REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EAST SLOPES OF            
THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY SHOULD SEE MORE            
SUN...BETTER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS.                                         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE              
WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN              
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. CHECK THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AT 4 PM               
MST TODAY FOR OUR DECISION. 44                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007...DRY AIR ALREADY PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST             
ARIZONA...SO TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD            
DURING THE DAY TODAY. RUC INDICATES A FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER               
TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS              
OFF WITH THE COLDER AIR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. AS A                        
NOTE...EARLIER RAIN HAD TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AT KGCN AS OF 09Z.                 
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST                
PLATEAU...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED                
THUNDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE COULD                   
RESULT.                                                                         
A 12 TO 16 MB SURFACE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN            
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.  WITH 50 KT WINDS SHOWING UP ON KTCC AND               
WSMR WIND PROFILERS TONIGHT...ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR TODAY/S WIND                  
HIGHLIGHTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CONCERNED LINCOLN COUNTY MAY TO BE               
UPGRADED...AS THEY MAY EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CLEARING TODAY. AREAS              
OUR WEST MAY ALSO BLOW CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY.                            
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO TURN ANY REMAINING RAIN TO               
SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE W...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL              
MOUNTAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT ONCE THE               
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF SOME SORT OF WINTER            
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON             
LATER SHIFTS.                                                                   
THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH ANY LINGERING             
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEK            
IS NOW LOOKING AS IF IT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO STORMS ON THE HORIZON             
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING            
ZONES ABOVE 7500 FEET...NMZ002-004.                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING               
ZONES...NMZ005>007-010>013-016>017-026.                                         
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES...NMZ001-008>009-014>015-018>021.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL                
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF LINCOLN AND                  
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES.  ALSO ADDED A WIND ADVISORY TO THE                   
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE            
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY                
SHOWS CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS THAT CROSSED                   
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.                    
FURTHER...LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT 10K FT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 45 TO              
55 KNOT RANGE...AND BOTH TEMPERATURES AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE                
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY. THUS...STRONGER SURFACE WINDS            
SHOULD RESULT. LEFT THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OUT OF THE WIND                 
ADVISORY BECAUSE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED NORTH OF                       
ALBUQUERQUE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO PREVENT NORTHERN SAN JUAN                  
COUNTY FROM REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE EAST SLOPES OF            
THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY SHOULD SEE MORE            
SUN...BETTER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS.                                         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE              
WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN              
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. CHECK THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AT 4 PM               
MST TODAY FOR OUR DECISION. 44                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM MST SAT DEC 1 2007...DRY AIR ALREADY PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST             
ARIZONA...SO TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD            
DURING THE DAY TODAY. RUC INDICATES A FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER               
TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS              
OFF WITH THE COLDER AIR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. AS A                        
NOTE...EARLIER RAIN HAD TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AT KGCN AS OF 09Z.                 
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHWEST                
PLATEAU...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED                
THUNDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE COULD                   
RESULT.                                                                         
A 12 TO 16 MB SURFACE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN            
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.  WITH 50 KT WINDS SHOWING UP ON KTCC AND               
WSMR WIND PROFILERS TONIGHT...ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR TODAY/S WIND                  
HIGHLIGHTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CONCERNED LINCOLN COUNTY MAY TO BE               
UPGRADED...AS THEY MAY EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CLEARING TODAY. AREAS              
OUR WEST MAY ALSO BLOW CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY.                            
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO TURN ANY REMAINING RAIN TO               
SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE W...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL              
MOUNTAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT ONCE THE               
COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF SOME SORT OF WINTER            
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON             
LATER SHIFTS.                                                                   
THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH ANY LINGERING             
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEK            
IS NOW LOOKING AS IF IT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO STORMS ON THE HORIZON             
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING            
ZONES ABOVE 7500 FEET...NMZ002-004.                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING               
ZONES...NMZ005>007-010>013-016>017-026.                                         
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES...NMZ001-008>009-014>015-018>021.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44                                                                              
</pre> nm