AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  56  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
CAMDEN AR         60  80  58  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
HARRISON AR       59  75  55  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MONTICELLO AR     59  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNT IDA AR      58  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  54  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
NEWPORT AR        59  77  57  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
PINE BLUFF AR     60  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  77  56  77 /  20  20  10  10                              
SEARCY AR         60  78  58  77 /  10  10  10  10                              
STUTTGART AR      60  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...38                                                
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
845 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU...OTHERWISE                  
SKIES ARE CLEAR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN BAJA LOW              
ARE JUST EAST OF KERN CO. SOME OF THESE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE                   
ACROSS THE KERN DESERT FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNITE SO PTCLDY THERE               
LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS THIS EVE RUNNING 6-8 DEGS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY               
AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED GOOD WARMING EXPECTED TOMORROW.                     
CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVE.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                          
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINGHAM/MOLINA/MV                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
232 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KERN COUNTY                 
DESERTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.                
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA             
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER              
TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.               
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
916 AM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWINGS EASTWARD THIS                
MORNING AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH CHANNELED FLOW OVER THE                   
DISTRICT. AT THE 250MB LEVEL...RUC ANALYSIS HAS A +100KT JET MAX                
EXITING THE AREA WITH A GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WINDS THIS                    
MORNING. WHILE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE                        
DIMINISHING THIS MID MORNING...WINDS EARLIER WERE ABLE TO REACH 30              
TO 40 MPH. AS THE JET MOVES FURTHER AWAY...WILL SEE MOUNTAIN WINDS              
DECREASE FURTHER AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CALIFORNIA.                  
FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OFF-SHORE WHICH WILL               
SUPPORT THE EXPECTED WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE                 
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT...WILL SEE GENERAL CLEARING                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUAL               
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST ALONG             
THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS                
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 17Z.                   
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE              
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THIS MORNING.                         
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                            
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
940 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /TONIGHT/...                                                 
PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...DEPICTING CLOUDS/SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARD            
SHORE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED EAST OF NEW               
ENGLAND...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO GA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 18Z             
NAM12/WRF AND 0Z RUC40 SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH                
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY YET RAISE POPS IF NEEDED...ESP ACROSS SC              
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD              
COVER SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF PATCHY FOG.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RECENT REPORTS FROM AREA BUOYS AND FROM THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH             
PILOT BOATS SUGGEST THAT SEAS ARE BUILDING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND              
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT 6 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY SLIP INTO                   
NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...MOVED UP START TIME OF ONGOING               
SCAS FOR SC/GA NEARSHORE WATERS FROM NOON THU TO 2 AM THU.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z-24Z/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER                   
8Z...WHEN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AT KCHS...WHILE               
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK.               
THEN...AFTER 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER              
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TAFS INDICATE SHOWERS IN THE                
VICINITY UNTIL 9Z...WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL               
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL               
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY. THE                    
INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SWELL                   
SUBSIDES SATURDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF...                                                  
GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING E SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL               
COMPONENT OF TIDES...STILL CLOSE TO THE MARCH 19 NEW MOON...WILL                
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH               
TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WILL NEED TO ASSESS               
NEED FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THU...AS WAVES IN SURF ZONE COULD BE              
CLOSE TO 5 FT. THIS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AT             
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY THU AND THU NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY             
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY             
     FOR AMZ374.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPR                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
130 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST            
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEST             
WIND IN ILLINOIS AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. WITH THIS WIND PATTERN                
ALOFT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A HIGH               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.              
THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL              
ADD THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FROM 11 TO 12 UTC. THIS IS THE TIME OF                 
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT              
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT A                  
SOUTHEAST WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WE USED THE NAM AND A LOCALLY            
RUN WRF MODEL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1100 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
650 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
330 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSPPI RIVER WITH SPC             
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW               
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL               
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1254 AM CDT                                                                     
VIGOROUS S/WV TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST              
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI            
TO ERN IA AT 05Z. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA...AND 0445Z ACARS SOUNDING             
OUT OF KRFD INDICATE 55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IN 930-850 HPA LAYER               
AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL TROF/FRONT. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP LAPSE              
RATES IN THIS LAYER...THOUGH A BIT OF A CAP NOTED AROUND 670 MB.                
ISOLATED WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE            
IN THIS REGION OF MOIST/WAA ACROSS FAR NRN IL...THOUGH APPEARS THEY             
ARE FIGHTING CAP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT COOLING OF MID/UPR LVLS             
WITH APPROACH OF S/WV EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED                
CAPE INCREASING TO 550-650 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED 875-900 HPA. THIS             
ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD BE                 
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TRW AS BOUNDARY ADVANCES ACROSS               
FCST IL. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION IN            
SWRN WI AND SRN IA...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS              
ERN IA. GIVEN STRONG FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY SEE SOME              
GUSTS IN 40 KT RANGE WITH TSTMS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN             
MARGINAL CAPE PROFILES. THUS WILL MAINTAIN TS IN TERMINALS THIS                 
MORNING...MAINLY DURG 09-13Z PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES            
THRU. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH                
STRONG LLVL DRYING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD DECREASE CLOUDS FAIRLY                   
RAPIDLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.           
STRONG SW LLVL WIND FIELD IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT            
RESULTING IN GUSTY 20-30 KT WINDS ATTM. WILL SEE GRADIENT DECREASE              
JUST A BIT WITHIN TROF AXIS TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN WSHFT TO NWLY                 
DIRECTION. SOME GUSTINESS AS SFC PRES RISE BUILDS IN EARLY                      
MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTN AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS               
IN. DVLPMNT OF NE WINDS OFF LAKE A GOOD PROBABILITY VERY LATE                   
AFTN/EARLY EVE AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE. NEXT S/WV AND ELEVATED               
PCPN THREAT BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT WITH NEXT FCST                    
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
745 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...WARM SECTOR AIR OVER TAF ROUTES WITH SCT             
AC AND CI OVR INDIANA WHILE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR WRM FNT                   
ACRS SRN GRTLKS. PATCHY MID CLOUD EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT            
MEANS VFR TO CONTINUE TIL DAYBREAK WHILE GUSTY WINDS AT SUNSET TODAY            
BECOME STEADY OVRNGT. MODELS TIMING OF CDFNT THU FAIRLY SIMILAR AND             
APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO AND DURING FROPA SO HAVE             
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST TIL THEN. EXPECT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA            
AND CB DURING CDFNT PASSAGE AND TREND TO MVFR CIGS OVC020 IN COLD               
AIR BEHIND FNT. INCREASED STABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO END OF TSHRA                 
SHORTLY AFT FROPA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...TUCEK                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
410 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                     
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...KOCH                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
100 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SPLIT UPPR FLOW DVLPG ACRS THE COUNTRY OVR THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF DAYS. WK DISTURBANCES WL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN                   
PLAINS...WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM SYS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE              
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES EWD INTO THE UPPR GRTLKS ON THURS. THIS SYS WL               
BRING A CDFNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY THURS AFT/NIGHT. MODELS IN                 
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON            
POPS.                                                                           
LIFT AHEAD OF WK SHORT WV TROF OVR WRN IL CAUSING SHWRS TO BREAK OUT            
ACRS THE AREA. 21/00Z UA INDICATES NOSE OF LLJ POINTED MORE TOWARDS             
SRN LI MI...SO WOULD XPCT THE BULK OF THE HVR PCPN TO STAY NW OF THE            
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORN. BASED ON MODEL DATA...WV SHOULD PUSH OFF            
TO THE NE BY SUNRISE...SO PCPN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME.             
H20 LOOP LOOKS PRETTY MESSY IN THE SRN STREAM...WITH INDICATIONS OF             
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PSBLY OVR NEBRASKA AND ERN OK. CONSIDERING              
ABV AND THE FACT THAT LLJ WL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THRU                    
TONIGHT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN THE FCST THRU TONIGHT.                   
APPEARS CDFNT WL BE MOVG INTO THE NWRN ZONES BY THURS AFT. GOOD                 
INFLOW INTO THE FNT WITH 850MB WNDS PROGGED ARND 40KTS. THIS                    
SUGGESTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD DVLP INVOF FNT. WL GO WITH HI            
POPS BY THURS AFT AS A RESULT.                                                  
MODELS INDICATE FNT MAY STALL OUT NEARBY TOWARDS THE END OF THE                 
WEEK. 850MB FLOW INTO THE FNT REMAINS RATHER HEALTHY AS                         
WELL...SUGGESTING HVY RAINFALL TOTALS PSBL LT IN THE WEEK IF MODEL              
SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.                                                         
BASED ON PROGGED LO LVL THICKNESSES...NGM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK               
REASONABLE AT THIS PT...SO WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM THEM.                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...JAS                                                                    
AVIATION...KOCH                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
207 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS BAND OF SHOWERS             
MOVG INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. RAINFALL INITIALLY IS               
QUITE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS DRY AND CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION OF                   
RAINFALL OCCURRING. ALSO WAA SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE OVERNIGHT TO            
ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF -FZRA TO TAFS FOR               
FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TO NE 1/2 OF CWA IN GRID/ZFP                   
UPDATE. WARM FRONT OVER SRN IL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH                
ACROSS NRN INDIANA BY MIDDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND            
CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN. NO SGFNT FORCING IN THE WARM SECTOR            
THIS AFTN/EVE SO LEFT THIS PERIOD DRY THOUGH WITH DESTABILIZATION A             
FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                              
HIGH PRES OVR SWRN QB WILL CONT TO SLIDE EWD INADV OF STG SRN STREAM            
SW TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF MO. SKC THIS EVENING BUT XPC RAPID               
MSTR FLUX/THETA-E ADVTN TWD MIDNIGHT AS UPSTREAM LLJ VEERS SW AND               
PCPN DVLPMNT BY 09Z FM NRN IL INTO WRN IN...AND CONTD E/NE EXPANSION            
THROUGH DAYBREAK. 18Z GUIDANCE TOO FAR N W/CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID             
LVL VORT MAX ACRS WRN MO AT 21Z W/MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO 21Z RUC WHICH            
TAKES MID LVL TROUGH AXIS ON A MORE SRN NE EJECTION. THIS FAVORS                
GOING POP ALIGNMENT ESP WED MORNING ALTHOUGH LIKELY OVERDONE ACRS SE            
CWA. WILL CONT TO MONITOR UPSTREAM DVLPMNTS THROUGH MID EVENING FOR             
EVENTUAL UPDATE.                                                                
VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DEGENERATE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR               
AFT 09Z W/PD OF IFR CONDS AT KSBN WED AM AND TEMPO TSRA GIVEN                   
FORCING ASSOCD/W INTENSE MID LVL TROUGH AND DEGREE OF                           
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. KFWA ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS A BIT REMOVED FM            
BTR THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE FVRBL MID LVL EML AND WILL CONT W/NO                 
MENTION THERE FOR THE TIME BEING.                                               
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS IT SLIDES              
BY TO OUR EAST RETURN FLOW BEGIN EARNEST. THIS ALREADY SEEN IN                  
SATELLITE AND RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS MO AND SOUTHWEST IL THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN. MODELS SHOW STRONG THETA E ADVECTION            
INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE             
OF INCREASING 40 TO 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY                       
NIGHT...EXPECT VERY DRY AIRMASS TO QUICKLY SATURATE AFTER MIDNIGHT              
WITH PCPN EXPANDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY A BIT BETTER TONIGHT THAN SUNDAY NIGHT               
AND ALREADY QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SOURCE REGION OF            
EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED THUNDER CHANCES TO                    
FORECAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RAIN AND              
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AS               
NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE FLUX MOVE THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A             
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. MOIST AND WARMER AIR WILL              
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INDICATIONS OF A SHORT WAVE.              
HAVE DECREASED POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS BUT MODELS FAVORING                     
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE DAY TO 60S SOUTHWEST BUT NORTHEAST            
TO REMAIN COOLER WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO THE EARLY                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD             
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS THEN             
PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. DECENT WARM              
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO NOT                     
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO LOW. ADDED IN A MENTION OF                    
ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THURSDAY. TOTAL TOTAL VALUES HAVE BEEN IN THE              
LOWER 50S THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THURSDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS IN                
BUFKIT ARE SHOWING AN INVERSION IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY BELOW 5000               
FEET BUT ELEVATED SHOWERS WOULD HAVE SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH TO                  
PRODUCE LIGHTNING. ALSO COULD BE SOME GOOD CONVERGENCE WITH THE                 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THEN THE QUESTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS HOW               
FAR SOUTH WILL THE FRONT GO...AND HOW MUCH STRENGTH WILL THE HIGH               
HAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN.             
JUST WILL ALTER THE POP SLIGHTLY TO SHOW THAT THE SOUTHERN PART OF              
THE CWA HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN THE NORTHERN PART DOES. IF            
MODELS STAY CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING...THEN THE              
FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE CWA TO              
BE DRY. WAITING ON FRIDAY YET. RIGHT NOW THE GFS HAS THE HIGH MOVING            
MORE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW MOVING THE FRONT TO THE                 
SOUTH BACK INTO THE AREA...AND THE GFS HAS SOME IMPULSES MOVING                 
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BUT MODELS HAVE CHANGED              
EVEN FROM YESTERDAY FOR FRIDAY...SO NO CHANGE. NO CHANGES YET FOR               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY YET EITHER. YESTERDAY THIS TIME FRAME             
WAS DRY...TWO RUNS AGO OF GFS HAD AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING               
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA THEN...BUT NOW THE LATEST RUN IS WEAKER            
WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. ALSO FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING             
OF NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MODELS ARE GOING TO DEAL WITH             
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEK. THIS UPPER             
LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT THE END OF THIS            
WEEK...CREATING A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.              
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS CREATES A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA             
GIVING RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT OR NOT. THEN RIGHT NOW THE               
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA NEXT                 
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THEM...AND THEN WEAKENING AS              
MOVING ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FOR NEXT                
TUESDAY. THIS IS THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW...BUT AS SEEN THE PAST                 
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SCENARIO CAN BE ALTERED FROM DAY TO DAY. SO AS             
SEEING THINGS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST NOW...NOT            
TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER                                                            
AVIATION...JT                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
309 PM CST WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE NW FOURTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.                
TSRA MOVED INTO THE WRN COUNTIES AHEAD OF H5 S/W MVNG THROUGH                   
CENTRAL IA...THEN REFORMED INTO AN E/W LINE ALONG INSTABILITY                   
GRADIENT OVER SE IA.  SO FAR JUST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORTS             
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS.  COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE WRN MN            
THROUGH ERN NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT            
NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO FAR NOT MUCH IN            
THE WAY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITH SURFACE FRONT WITH STRONG CAP              
NOTED ON KOAX 18Z SOUNDING...SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...                                           
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CURRENT             
WATCH AND ANTICIPATE CANCELLING THE SEVERE WATCH EARLY FOR MOST OF              
THE WATCH AREA. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CWA LATE THIS                
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES THE                 
NCNTRL STATES.  LOOKING AT A RUC FCST NR KOMA FOR THIS                          
AFTERNOON...IT SHOWS THE STRONG CAP DISSIPATING BY 00Z...SO EXPECT              
CONVECTION TO FORM IN WRN IA BY EARLY EVENING ON THE FRONT AND REACH            
THE NWRN CWA AROUND 03Z ...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE SERN CWA BTWN 09Z            
AND 12Z. FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL MO/IL THURSDAY            
AFTN/EVE.  HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE PREV FCST FOR               
TONIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WITH SOME MODEST CAPE AROUND                    
1000J/KG PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER ERN IA THROUGH THE EVENING.  BELIEVE            
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL               
THREAT IN ANY ONE AREA.  PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WILL BE              
THE SRN MOST COUNTIES WAS THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED            
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                
THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK               
NORTH INTO NRN MO/CNTRAL IL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG/MOIST SLWY LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY...AND FUELING STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE.                  
REPEAT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ORIENTED PARALLEL             
TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND A SWLY LLJ POINTED AT NW MO/SW IA MOST OF             
THE NIGHT.  MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY HANDLING THE                
WARM FRONT. THE GFS PULLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH WELL INTO IA WHILE THE             
NAM/UKMET KEEP SOUTH AS THEY BRING S/W ENERGY THROUGH NRN STREAM.               
SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO THE SRN              
COUNTIES.  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS              
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SRN STREAM CUT OFF                         
LOW...LIFTING IT NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY.                  
BASED ON THIS HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS HIER ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  LONG RANGE                  
MODELS THEN DEVELOP DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR               
MID WEEK.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FCST DRY TO MODELS ESTABLISH SOME RUN             
TO RUN CONTINUITY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1038 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT HAD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF               
HIGHWAY 50 AT MID-MORNING...WITH THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTING              
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH              
OF EARLY MORNING GRID PACKAGE...SO HAVE REFLECTED THE CHANGES IN                
THE LATEST GRID/FORECAST UPDATE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR                  
THIS AFTERNOON...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON DIURNAL HEATING (IE. CLOUD                
TRENDS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE SOME               
HOLES INTO MIDDAY...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO ENCROACH SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
BOUNDARY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL ML                 
CAPES OF AROUND 1800 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO LITTLE CHANGE                
TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AND FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING LATE THIS                    
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TSRA CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND AND ALSO TEMPS.                                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN KS AT              
THIS TIME. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT               
HELPING TO GET ELEVATED STORMS GOING.  QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR                
SOUTH /IF AT ALL/  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER            
THIS MORNING. SOME PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO            
PREFER THE NAM-WRF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT GENERALLY ALONG AN EMP-HUT             
LINE BEFORE IT STALL.  WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OUT             
IS THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ECHOES. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO              
BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN TSRA CHANCE WILL BE THIS              
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND                      
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K LAYER WILL STEEPEN LAPSE                 
RATES ENOUGH FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS            
MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT            
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR               
AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER AREAS WITH                 
SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTH                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BUT DAY SHIFT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BETTER             
DEFINE THIS ONCE BOUNDARY DECIDES TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS.                
WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS IN SOUTHERN KS AS BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF            
THIS AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.                         
TONIGHT:                                                                        
BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH                
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SO EXPECT             
SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY BUT PROBABLY DIMINISHING                  
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LIFT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME TRANING STORMS IN              
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SO FLOODING THREAT WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO              
BE WATCHED.                                                                     
FRI-FRI NIGHT:                                                                  
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION             
FOR FRI.  MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL                  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS             
AS ANY WEAK IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT               
TSRA CHANCE TO BE WIDESPREAD.                                                   
BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN               
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL STILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW              
AS PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IN LATER RUNS WILL BETTER DEFINE                   
HIGHEST POP AREAS.                                                              
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY REMAINS               
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ON SAT FOR BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AGAIN             
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN AND MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE              
AREA UNTIL SUN EVENING. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY            
RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
SEVERE THREAT ON SAT AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAVORABLE BUT INSTABILITY             
LOOKS MODEST.                                                                   
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                               
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS             
FINALLY MOVE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY             
WILL BE A DAY TO DRY OUT WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LAYERS. A                 
RATHER RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED FOR ANOTHER              
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION.                                                   
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    74  59  72  58 /  50  60  40  40                                
HUTCHINSON      70  58  72  57 /  40  50  40  40                                
NEWTON          71  58  71  57 /  50  60  40  40                                
ELDORADO        73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  60  73  59 /  60  60  40  40                                
RUSSELL         61  51  71  53 /  20  30  40  40                                
GREAT BEND      64  53  71  55 /  30  40  40  40                                
SALINA          63  52  69  54 /  30  50  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       67  56  71  56 /  40  50  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     76  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
CHANUTE         74  60  72  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
IOLA            73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-083-092>096-                  
098>100.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
440 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.                                                
INTERESTING SET UP TODAY WITH SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD                   
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD                 
ELEVATED LIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC BNDRY BY MIDDAY ALONG OR              
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OPTIMUM ELEVATED LIFT WITH FAIRLY GOOD             
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN            
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS. NO             
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED YET...BUT BEARS WATCHING IN 12Z RUN. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES EXCEEDINGLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RUNNING NEARLY            
250% OF NORMAL! THIS HIGH WATER CONTENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND              
AND DOES NOT REALLY GET MODIFIED TO ANY GREAT EXTENT UNTIL UPPER                
SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH               
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                                        
SETUP FOR SEVERE TODAY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                      
WARMFRONT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION             
TO FRONTAL AREA OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARMER AND THE                  
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE EVEN GREATER. SHEAR SEEMS TO BE                 
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY AS WELL.                                  
TEMPERATURES IN TURN A REAL CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TO              
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED NAM CLOSELY WITH IT`S SFC                 
TEMPERATURE FCST. THUS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE              
LOWER 70S SOUTH.                                                                
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WAITING             
FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF MEAN WESTERN TROF POSITION. THIS              
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER                  
CHANCE APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM                 
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.                                                
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST NOT CHANGED MUCH AS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO              
ADD MUCH DETAIL OR FIND REASONS TO MAKE CHANGES IN SUCH AN UNSETTLED            
PATTERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
358 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HELPED PUSH A                   
COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF SW KS. THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM STRETCHED                
FROM NORTH OF HUGOTON TO HUTCHINSON. SFC TEMPS WERE VERY BALMY                  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT(71 AT BUFFALO,OK AND 65 AT LIBERAL). THE SFC                 
DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AN                          
UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. 500MB                    
TEMPS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS WERE                         
FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO. IN FACT THE NAM HAS 500MB TEMPS                     
AROUND -13C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO                 
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60SF ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS. A LARGE AREA                
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING NE INTO NM AND WEST TX.                   
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS TODAY...THE                    
LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF                      
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE NAM/GFS AND SOME OF THE RUC                 
MEMBERS SURGE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY TO A GCK TO HAYS                
LINE. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RUC13 SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THIS               
MODEL KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALL DAY. WITH BROKEN MID                
TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW... TEMPS WILL STAY IN                 
THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OK STATE LINE               
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.                                                      
I EXPECT THE SFC DRYLINE TO STRETCH FROM DALHART TO CARLSBAD,NM                 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT CLOSE TO                
DALHART. FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING...SOME ELEVATED HEATING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...      
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE                    
INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LOCAL POOLING                 
OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SFC BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG             
FROM P28 TO ENGLEWOOD. AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA...A FEW OF                 
THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                       
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR                   
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BUT AS WE HAVE                  
SEEN IN THE RECENT PAST...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPES                  
AROUND 1000 J/KG CAN BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO                
TONIGHT. BUT THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE                        
BY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS                      
ON SATURDAY. SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY               
SAKE AND SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.                                       
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING EXTENDED.  BOTH THE UKMET AND             
GFS BRING AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM UP FROM SOUTHERN BAHA CALIFORNIA TO               
WESTERN KANSAS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE WE HAVE 40               
POPS GOING NOW.  THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEARS OUT.  TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND IN              
LINE WITH SURROUNDING WFO GRIDS.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM...PERHAPS            
WITH 80S SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA.  LEFT TUES MAX T`S ALONE FOR NOW...AS            
OUR SW HAS MID 70S GOING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...STRATUS WILL LIKELY             
FORM AT DDC AND GCK IN THE 012 TO 015 FEET RANGE BY 11Z THIS                    
MORNING.  DO NOT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LINGER MUCH BEYOND 15-16Z.               
ALSO...FOG WITH VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM RANGE WILL FORM AT DDC...GCK AND             
HYS AND LAST THROUGH 15Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  68  53  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
GCK  64  45  72  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
EHA  71  47  71  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
LBL  73  51  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
HYS  61  48  72  55 /  20  20  20  20                                           
P28  76  59  70  61 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN24/12                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CUT OFF LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE             
UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.             
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON FINER DETAILS. EVEN AS                
EARLY AS TODAY...NAM BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER               
THE AREA/WHEREAS GFS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANYTHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
INCONCLUSIVE...SINCE JUST SEE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DEEP                  
TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LITTLE TO GO ON WILL PLAY            
THE PERCENTAGES AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT RELIABLE RUC CEILING            
FORECAST SHOWS 2KFT BROKEN DECK OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH            
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS A RESULT.              
FRIDAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...THOUGH MODELS SWITCH PLACES WITH              
GFS WET AND NAM DRY. IT DOES APPEAR THE AREA WILL COME UNDER                    
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH DEVELOPS FRIDAY                    
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE MIDWEST. SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE             
SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA. NONETHELESS...ISC CONSTRAINTS WILL                 
DICTATE LOW CHANCE POPS. THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MAIN LOW               
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH LENDS LITTLE TO             
NO CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGES               
GIVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH              
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
258 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF/WHEN CONVECTION WILL                     
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR                 
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS              
AND BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG THE DRYLINE               
WERE BETWEEN 82-86F. ALSO NOTICING CAPES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT WERE AT 15-2K J/KG WITH IMPROVING MOIST CONV. THE RUC40 ALSO              
WAS FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE                   
TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED LATE TODAY SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS GO                
UP QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE                  
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED              
AS WE APPROACH 4 PM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/CU DEVELOPMENT.                
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AS A NORTHERN                
BRANCH S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                   
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AND WEAK LIFT OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY               
RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                            
THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDANT ON                
WHERE OUR FRONT WILL BE. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUR SURFACE FRONT               
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.                 
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST SYSTEM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT, MOISTURE AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL                 
THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AND TAPER POPS OFF                   
FURTHER NW AND HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.              
BY FRIDAY THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SW KS.                     
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW                  
EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE                
EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                  
HIGHS FRIDAY.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE THIS MORNING THE                           
GFS/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE                  
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING                
IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP SET THE SCENCE FOR                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE                         
REGION...MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG                 
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. WITH UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE                
OUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MUCH DRIER             
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK. DECIDED TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE                
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THEN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE                   
RETURNING TO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. HOWEVER JUST TOO EARLY TO SEE               
IF THIS WILL BECOME A MID WEEK MOISTURE PRODUCER.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA.              
BETWEEN 09-12Z LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS OF 5SM BR                 
AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE                  
CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BETWEEN 09-15Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  49  63  48  68 /  20  20  20   0                                           
GCK  45  64  46  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
EHA  47  66  51  72 /  10  10  10   0                                           
LBL  50  68  51  72 /  10  20  20   0                                           
HYS  47  57  47  66 /  30  10  10   0                                           
P28  56  66  54  68 /  30  50  50   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/31                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
242 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF/WHEN CONVECTION WILL                     
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR                 
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS              
AND BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG THE DRYLINE               
WERE BETWEEN 82-86F. ALSO NOTICING CAPES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT WERE AT 15-2K J/KG WITH IMPROVING MOIST CONV. THE RUC40 ALSO              
WAS FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE                   
TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED LATE TODAY SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS GO                
UP QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE                  
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED              
AS WE APPROACH 4 PM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/CU DEVELOPMENT.                
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AS A NORTHERN                 
BRANCH S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER DYNAMIC FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                    
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AND WEAK LIFT OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY               
RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                            
THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDANT ON                
WHERE OUR FRONT WILL BE. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUR SURFACE FRONT               
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.                 
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST SYSTEM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT, MOISTURE AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL                 
THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AND TAPER POPS OFF                   
FURTHER NW AND HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.              
BY FRIDAY THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SW KS.                     
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW                  
EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE                
EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                  
HIGHS FRIDAY.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE                     
GFS/ECMWF/NAM TO BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE            
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING                
IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP SET THE SCENCE FOR                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE                         
REGION...MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE     
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO                
KICK OFF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE OUT THE                   
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                               
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MUCH DRIER             
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK. DECIDED TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE FIRST             
PART OF THE WEEK. THEN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE RETURNING TO            
OUR PART OF THE WORLD. HOWEVER JUST TOO EARLY TO SEE IF THIS WILL               
BECOME A MID WEEK MOISTURE PRODUCER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA.              
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGRY CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP               
BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 09-12Z LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED                
WITH VSBYS OF 5SM BR AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST SO                 
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BETWEEN                  
09-15Z. &&                                                                      
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  49  63  48  68 /  20  20  20   0                                           
GCK  45  64  46  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
EHA  47  66  51  72 /  10  10  10   0                                           
LBL  50  68  51  72 /  10  20  20   0                                           
HYS  47  57  47  66 /  30  10  10   0                                           
P28  56  66  54  68 /  30  50  50   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/31                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
902 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. ADDED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE POP FOR SW INDIANA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF               
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER                 
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO/EASTERN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS            
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS KEEP QUASI                     
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE                 
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI              
OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE A SE MOVEMENT TO ANY              
ORGANIZED MCS THAT DEVELOPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH THE                 
ENTIRE PERIOD...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT.                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK DOWN TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS                 
RIGHT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE AREA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE                
WEAKENING AND FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE AIRMASS                 
THOROUGHLY WORKED OVER...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE             
AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO HAVE MUCH POP IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.             
WILL HOWEVER...INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT            
TO FIT IN TO SOME DEGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.                                        
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL             
DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE              
REGION. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST              
THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE GFS BRINGS INTO OUR WEST JUST BEFORE 12Z.                 
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN RAMP UP TO               
50-60 POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR             
A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IF IT IS AS FOCUSED AS TODAYS                      
CONVECTION HAS BEEN...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET WET. THEREFORE WILL NOT            
GO HIGHER THAN 60S FOR NOW.  THOSE 60S WILL BE IN THE NORTH WHERE               
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF. THE NAM IS NOT SURE            
ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING WET.                                           
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST...SO            
WILL LEAVE A 20-30 POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE               
FRONT RE-LOCATES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE FOCUS               
FOR CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO REGENERATE            
CONVECTION ALL OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS THE LONE MODEL             
THAT DOES NOT BUILD A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL              
THEREFORE IGNORE ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW.                                          
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE GLORIOUS WITH TEMPS PUSHING 80 EACH                 
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                  
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVEN THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO DRAG SOME                 
REMNANT OF THE SW U.S. CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY              
OR TUESDAY. WILL THROW IN 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST              
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK             
DRY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA ON             
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE                  
ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN            
THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOMORROW WHERE THE                  
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CERTAIN               
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
953 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO                   
ACROSS PORTIONS OR THE NORTHERN AREA AROUND SDF AND LEX...NOT SO                
MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                                      
-SCHOTT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                               
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                              
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
144 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. RADAR               
HOWEVER CURRENTLY SHOWS THESE HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME ADDITIONAL                  
SHOWERS ATM ARE JUST NORTH OF OUR NW COUNTIES MOVING W TO EAST JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. RUC AND WRF-NAM BOTH KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                  
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS              
ARE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON..IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS IS             
CONFINED PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE SPINE OF              
THE APPALACHIANS. BELIEVE THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT             
POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE ENTIRE PERIOD. IF RUC/NAM FORECAST DOES PAN            
OUT...WE`LL ADDRESS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.                         
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH                
FORECAST GRIDS.                                                                 
UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...POPS...AND MORNING            
WORDING. NEAR TERM WINDS WERE REFRESHED USING RUC GUIDANCE.                     
...REMAINDER OF EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING SIMILAR DIFFERENCES ALOFT AS THEY WERE LAST           
NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A CLOSING LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH A WAVE               
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN FOR EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE THE              
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS...THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER               
AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING BAJA LOW THE GFS               
REMAINS FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM           
WAVE PASSING AND THE BAJA LOW OPENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK             
WEEK...KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF AWASH IN FAST MOVING MINOR WAVES.              
THESE WILL BE RUNNING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE ZONAL                
FLOW FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. DESPITE THE            
NAM HAVING MORE SUPPORT WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM               
WAVE EARLY ON...THE GFS IS FAVORED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON GIVEN             
ITS APPARENT BETTER HANDLING OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.             
FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL POSITION              
...BUT FOLLOWED THE NAM/S EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL                
WAVES THAT PASS OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATTER               
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                          
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURNING OFF AND                
MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND ONLY             
AN SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE               
FORECAST FOR TODAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                 
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...             
AND ONLY PARTIAL CLOUDINESS...RESULTING IN RADIATIONAL FOG. A WAVE              
SEEN IN THE GFS THAT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOO            
FAR AWAY TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEXT...A COLD FRONT                
FROM THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SAG TOWARD KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY             
BEFORE STRETCHING OUT AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN                 
HALF OF THE STATE LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED             
AND PERSISTENT PERIOD OF DECENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...           
SPURNED ALONG BY THE MINOR UPPER WAVES SPINNING OUT OF THE OPENING              
SOUTHWESTERN LOW.                                                               
WITH THE TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TODAY AND              
THURSDAY...THOUGH HELD THE DIURNAL RISE BACK A BIT THIS MORNING UNTIL           
THE FOG BURNS OFF. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND. AT              
NIGHT...THE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO WENT WITH A BLEND...ALONG WITH              
SOME SITE SPECIFIC TWEAKING. THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET               
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/                                         
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE                       
WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF            
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITHIN THE               
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN FEATURES OF              
INFLUENCE WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH AN                 
EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.                      
ECMWF WASHES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OUT TO THE SOUTH...WITH A                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LENDING IT`S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROGGED RIDGE THEN SLOWS AS WELL DAMPENS               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
GFS STARTS OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN              
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEEPING THE FRONT                  
AROUND LONGER AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY                            
SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE              
MODEST RIDGING TAKES PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MUCH MORE ROBUST                   
PROGGED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH                
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.                           
HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE MODELS. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT             
LATELY...HOWEVER FEEL THAT IT DOES DAMPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT             
TOO MUCH AS IT BRINGS IT IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT            
OVERDONE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE                  
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING...WHILE INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE              
WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL                     
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. GENERALLY STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN               
MOS...THINKING THAT THE NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOL WITH THE OVERPLAYED              
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
WARM FRONT HAS EDGED NORTH TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG OUR             
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS KICKED UP             
EARLIER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS NO                
ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED              
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST                  
PERIOD. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP            
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS BACK INTO             
THE REGION. TIMING RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE THE 24-HOUR TAF                
PERIOD...SO CONDITIONS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THIS 18Z-18Z TAF.                   
SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING SHOWERS             
/ LOWERING CEILINGS IN ANOTHER CHANGE GROUP. FOR NOW...CEILINGS/                
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING              
THIS EVENING FROM HIGH CIRRUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON TO MID-LEVELS THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCLANE/GREIF                                                       
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...MCLANE                                                               
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1120 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A MID LEVEL VORT WAS INDUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP CLOUDS AND WHAT            
APPEARED TO BE VIRGA OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE PAH FCST AREA. RUC               
MODEL INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE ENE OUT OF THE AREA BY            
18Z OR SO...WITH NO CLEAR ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISMS ARRIVING                
INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LOW               
POPS THIS AFTN...DUE TO PLENTIFUL WARM AIR ABOVE 850 MB.                        
THEREFORE...WE WILL DROP THE AFTN CHANCES OF RAIN/TSTMS AND LIGHTEN             
UP ON THE CLOUD WORDING A BIT. THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DECENT             
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...THUS WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH IN MANY AREAS.            
ZONE UPDATE OUT SOON.                                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST.                 
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN               
ILLINOIS AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST                   
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IOWA.  NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON               
THE ONGOING PRECIP...SO LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.                   
DROPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS             
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT             
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS            
FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.  NAM IS MORE                    
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO              
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 18Z THU...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT A LITTLE                
FARTHER NORTHWEST AND KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF OUT OF OUR AREA.              
LEANED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW...FOCUSING POPS             
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA...WITH BEST POPS IN FAR NORTHERN            
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
BY 12Z FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE IN SYNC WITH THE                  
FRONTAL POSITION...BUT GFS HAS MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY                   
NIGHT.  PREFERRING GFS...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR                
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHEST                   
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO             
CHANCE POPS NORTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED THIS TREND INTO              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE                  
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWER               
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  BY LATE                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST.  ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS               
FEATURE...SO FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST              
HALF OF THE PAH FA...WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                                   
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND.  USED A MAV/MET COMPROMISE FOR THE NEAR TERM                       
TEMPS...WHICH ONLY REQUIRED MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN               
WARMED UP LOWS AND HIGHS JUST A LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON. IN THE EXTENDED...BASED ON LATEST MEX TWEAKED DOWN LOWS              
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY JUST A LITTLE...OTHERWISE MADE LITTLE IF ANY                
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RST                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1112 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED                            
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. RADAR               
HOWEVER CURRENTLY SHOWS THESE HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME ADDITIONAL                  
SHOWERS ATM ARE JUST NORTH OF OUR NW COUNTIES MOVING W TO EAST JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. RUC AND WRF-NAM BOTH KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                  
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS              
ARE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON..IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS IS             
CONFINED PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE SPINE OF              
THE APPALACHIANS. BELIEVE THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT             
POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE ENTIRE PERIOD. IF RUC/NAM FORECAST DOES PAN            
OUT...WE`LL ADDRESS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.                         
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH                
FORECAST GRIDS.                                                                 
UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...POPS...AND MORNING            
WORDING. NEAR TERM WINDS WERE REFRESHED USING RUC GUIDANCE.                     
...REMAINDER OF EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING SIMILAR DIFFERENCES ALOFT AS THEY WERE LAST           
NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A CLOSING LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH A WAVE               
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN FOR EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE THE              
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS...THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER               
AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING BAJA LOW THE GFS               
REMAINS FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM           
WAVE PASSING AND THE BAJA LOW OPENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK             
WEEK...KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF AWASH IN FAST MOVING MINOR WAVES.              
THESE WILL BE RUNNING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE ZONAL                
FLOW FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. DESPITE THE            
NAM HAVING MORE SUPPORT WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM               
WAVE EARLY ON...THE GFS IS FAVORED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON GIVEN             
ITS APPARENT BETTER HANDLING OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.             
FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL POSITION              
...BUT FOLLOWED THE NAM/S EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL                
WAVES THAT PASS OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATTER               
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                          
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURNING OFF AND                
MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND ONLY             
AN SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE               
FORECAST FOR TODAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                 
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...             
AND ONLY PARTIAL CLOUDINESS...RESULTING IN RADIATIONAL FOG. A WAVE              
SEEN IN THE GFS THAT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOO            
FAR AWAY TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEXT...A COLD FRONT                
FROM THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SAG TOWARD KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY             
BEFORE STRETCHING OUT AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN                 
HALF OF THE STATE LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED             
AND PERSISTENT PERIOD OF DECENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...           
SPURNED ALONG BY THE MINOR UPPER WAVES SPINNING OUT OF THE OPENING              
SOUTHWESTERN LOW.                                                               
WITH THE TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TODAY AND              
THURSDAY...THOUGH HELD THE DIURNAL RISE BACK A BIT THIS MORNING UNTIL           
THE FOG BURNS OFF. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND. AT              
NIGHT...THE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO WENT WITH A BLEND...ALONG WITH              
SOME SITE SPECIFIC TWEAKING. THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET               
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/                                         
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE                       
WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF            
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITHIN THE               
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN FEATURES OF              
INFLUENCE WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH AN                 
EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.                      
ECMWF WASHES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OUT TO THE SOUTH...WITH A                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LENDING IT`S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROGGED RIDGE THEN SLOWS AS WELL DAMPENS               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
GFS STARTS OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN              
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEEPING THE FRONT                  
AROUND LONGER AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY                            
SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE              
MODEST RIDGING TAKES PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MUCH MORE ROBUST                   
PROGGED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH                
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.                           
HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE MODELS. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT             
LATELY...HOWEVER FEEL THAT IT DOES DAMPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT             
TOO MUCH AS IT BRINGS IT IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT            
OVERDONE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE                  
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING...WHILE INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE              
WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL                     
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. GENERALLY STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN               
MOS...THINKING THAT THE NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOL WITH THE OVERPLAYED              
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
DENSE FOG IS A PROBLEM AT THE TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME. HOWEVER LOZ           
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL             
BE INCREASING AFTER 14Z AS STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE             
AREA LIFTS NORTH. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AND CIGS RISE INTO THE           
VFR RANGE BY THAT TIME... WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A                
SHOWER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY... HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE              
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.                                    
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-                     
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCLANE/GREIF                                                       
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...ABE/GREIF                                                            
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AREA MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYERED MOISTURE THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE COLUMN. SFC OBS/SATL DATA CONFIRMS SCT-BKN                          
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACRS FORECAST AREA THIS LATE MORNING BUT THE                
CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR TO BE BREAKING AND THINNING. THEREFORE EXPECT              
SKY CONDITION WILL AVERAGE PTSUNNY DURING THE AFTN. INSOLATION                  
SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FCSTD VALUES RANGING                 
FROM M60S ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO M70S OVER PIEDMONT...BUT OF                 
COURSE COOLER WHERE FLOW IS ONSHORE. LTL IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO               
FCST ATTM BUT UPDATED FCST TO REFRESH PRODUCTS.                                 
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
DECIDED TO ADD SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WTRS FROM SMITH POINT                 
TO NEW POINT COMFORT...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT WAVES. RUC                
AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST INCRSG SFC WINDS AFTER 18Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW               
AROUND 15 KT AT SFC UNDER WEAK INVERSION WITH 25-30 KTS ABOVE                   
INVERSION. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS DOWN TO SFC.               
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT SO                   
OPTED NOT TO GO FOR SCA FOR SOUTHERN BAY BUT STEADY 15 KT. ON CSTL              
WTRS...EXPECT 15-20 KT SOUTH WINDS FROM FENWICK DOWN TO PARRAMORE               
WITH LONGER FETCH BUILDING SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA AFTER 2 PM.                     
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT/SAT                 
NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS                             
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH. THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH                
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 513 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD               
FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST                 
REGIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONERN TODAY WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER                
EXTENT (DEPTH) AND THUS IMPACT ON TEMPS.                                        
GFS/NAM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE ACCORD IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH                   
TONIGHT). BOTH INDICATE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE MASON-              
DIXON LINE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED AS THE              
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ENCOUNTERS A ZONAL/FLAT UPPER                  
RIDGE. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING/MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR POPS                    
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. AS FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW               
VEERS TOWARD THE S-SW RESULTING IN MORE APPRECIABLE WARMING (AND                
RELATIVE DRYING) WITHING THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. STILL EXPECT                    
PERIODIC WAVES OF HIGHER BASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTN AS WE GET INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...THUS HAVE WORDED PARTLY SUNNY. BASED ON RECENT                
TRENDS (YDAY)...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS TODAY FOR               
HIGH TEMPS. THIS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED                       
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN (ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH THE LATE MARCH               
SUN ANGLE).                                                                     
TONIGHT...FRONT DIPS INTO NRN VA AND THE NRN PTN OF THE DELMARVA.               
HAVE INCLUDED LOW (30-40%) POPS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA                   
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FLATTENING UPPER              
FLOW (AND NEGLIGIBLE STRAIGHT UPPER JET FORCING)...DYNAMICS AND THUS            
MOISTURE DEPTHS REMAIN LACKING. S OF FVX-RIC-MFV...MOISTURE IS                  
JUST TOO SHALLOW (PARTICULARLY IN LOW LEVELS) FOR POPS.                         
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS IS TOO                   
QUICK WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST-                 
OH VLY-MID ATLC REGION. SIDING MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND...                 
EXPECT A NW-SE DRAPED SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...             
WITH THE FRONT TAKING ON THE TYPICAL "SAG" EAST TOWARD THE COOLER               
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT EXPECT A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE...          
I.E. AROUND 80/LOWER 80S INLAND TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE LOWER ERN                
SHORE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LOW POPS OVER              
THE N-NE ZONES ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.                       
SATURDAY...GFS IS MUCH COOLER WITH THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO                 
THE OTHER MODELS...BASICALLY A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MODEL BEING TOO              
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL UPPER SHORTWAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE         
STATIONARY FRONT. GFS (MAV) MOS GUIDANCE IN FACT IS SOME 20+                    
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS OVER INLAND LOCALES COMPARED TO THE              
NAM (MET) GUIDANCE! FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM/          
ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT DROP THE FRONT S OF THE LOWER DELMARVA                   
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON THESE PROJECTIONS...EXPECT ANOTHER              
DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SW (80-85) TO                  
AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE (LOW-MID                
50S).                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/ECWMF TRENDS...AND WITH THE LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SAT-SUN...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO                
THE FCSTS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM              
THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE (OFFSHORE) ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR A                    
COOLER DAY OVER THE NERN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH AGAIN                   
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MUCH MILDER AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SW. TOWARD               
PETERSBURG/FARMVILLE/SOUTH HILL.                                                
AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE MVFR CIGS              
NORTH AND WEST...VFR SOUTH. FLOW TURNS TO S OR SW LATER TODAY WITH              
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BY AFTN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. MVFR CIGS MAY            
HANG TOUGH ON THE ERN SHORE THRU 16-18Z. CONTINUED VFR TONIGHT AS               
MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.                                
MARINE...GRADIENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.                
CHILLY BAY WATERS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX THESE               
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC...SO OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE BAY &                
SOUND BELOW SMALL CRAFT (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE LATER THIS AFTN).            
ON COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW (NEAR 20 KTS BY AFTN)             
WILL LIKELY BRING SEAS TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (5 FT                 
WAVES OFFSHORE) N OF PARRAMORE ISL...FROM LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH             
ERLY MRNG THU.  DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD               
FRONT SAT/SAT NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS               
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH.  THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH               
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SE TO S FLOW THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY                        
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY AFTN FOR MUCH OF INLAND VA.               
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO RH VALUES DO NOT DROP OFF              
THAT MUCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT 35-45% AT THE DRIEST.             
FARTHER EAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MIXING                  
SOMEWHAT SO WINDS LIKELY STAY MORE FROM DUE SOUTH AT 15 KTS OR LESS.            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT              
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN/FOSTER                                               
</pre> md                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN TONIGHT.           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES                  
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NEXT SHORTWAVE             
IN THE FAST FLOW IS OVER NW ND. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE            
WERE SPREADING ACROSS NRN MN...AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD              
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. RADARS SHOW A DECENT AREA OF                  
RETURNS ACROSS FAR NE ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SFC OBS THAT                   
REPORT VSBY ARE SPARSE IN THAT AREA...SO DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH             
PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST FEW HRS...A COUPLE           
OF OBS IN SRN MANITOBA HAVE REPORTED 1-4SM IN -SN. WELL TO THE                  
W...SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES A DAY OR TWO AGO               
OVER THE W COAST HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST S             
OF CA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE                 
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE E...CROSSING UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR                
BTWN 03Z-09Z. BASED ON THE DARKENING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...             
THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE THAN THE WEAKER NAM. LATEST            
RUC AND 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT THE GFS. OVERLAP OF                  
MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
(CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 20MB) ON THE 290K SFC (AROUND                 
700MB) LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE PRESENT IN NE                 
ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED              
FARTHER S...BUT AIRMASS IS DRIER THERE. LATEST RUC IS VERY SIMILAR              
TO THE GFS WITH REGARD TO PROGRESSION OF QVECTOR                                
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU 06Z. FORCING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS            
TO SHIFT THRU NE MN BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UPPER MI/LAKE                
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...THE                     
WEAKENING FORCING SUGGESTS PCPN THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL TEND            
TO DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ON THE            
OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE            
MAY NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS MODELS INDICATE. SO...SITUATION IS                    
CERTAINLY STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS OVER NW LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. FCST WETBULB ZERO PROFILES                    
INDICATE ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS WILL BE SNOW.                                     
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE...CANADIAN/GFS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND               
850MB ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. SO THERE                
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.                  
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID               
50S. HOWEVER...SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER NEAR AND                   
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE            
SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND OVER THE NCNTRL MID/LATE AFTN AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER WINDS SLACKEN. FROM MUNISING EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT            
THRU THE DAY TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.                                
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
CONTINUITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS POOR CURRENTLY MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL             
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW ALONG CANADA/UNITED STATES BORDER. IN RECENT            
MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF SHORE OF BRITISH               
COLUMBIA WAS TO MOVE EAST AND ARRIVE OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES FRI              
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ALSO...THE WAVE WAS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT            
CAME EAST. NOW...A TREND IS EMERGING THAT RESULTS IN STRONGER WAVE              
NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL SAT. NAM MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS IDEA WHILE            
UKMET/GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE WEAKER. SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH                     
DIVERGENCE FM RRQ OF H3 OVR ONTARIO SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE MID             
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS FM GFS AND EVEN NAM ARE VERY DRY BLO H85            
SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS            
AND LIGHT WINDS SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AT THE SFC...RIDGE                   
DRIFTING OVER UPR LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUN. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH              
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS FEASIBLE THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE                
THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE WITH A GOOD PORTION OF CWA EXPERIENCING MIN            
TEMPS BLO FREEZING.                                                             
UPR LOW OVR SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO PLAINS SUN AND LIFTS TOWARD UPR               
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
HERE. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH TROUGH EJECTION AND WAS NOT PREFERRED             
DUE TO EVEN STRONGER KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELLING INTO WEST               
COAST AS EARLY AS SUN. LARGE AREA OF H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION...               
40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS ECLIPSING AN INCH (250-300 PCT OF NORMAL)              
ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PCPN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WARMING H85 TEMPS                
COMBINED WITH COOL H5 TEMPS AROUND -15C RESULT IN STEEPENING MID                
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT               
AND UPR TROUGH DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHICH IS             
WHEN BEST COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. 00Z GFS                
EVEN INDICATED SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD                 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MON EVENING. ECMWF MUCH QUICKER WITH FROPA.                
ALTHOUGH MOST PCPN WILL BE DONE BY MON NIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE              
IN GRIDS FOR TUE AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PER HPC AND              
H5 COLD POOL (-20C AT H5) ALSO ROTATES THROUGH. BRIEF RIDGING BOTH              
ALOFT AND AT SFC FOR WED...THEN DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVR            
MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS. SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY AT             
SFC...LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS                
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING             
E ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. SHARP DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. 00Z/12Z KINL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE                   
INCOMING DRY AIR NICELY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPED FROM 0.68 TO              
0.15 INCHES...AND 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-25C             
FROM 840MB TO 550MB. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE              
STRONG SHORTWAVE. WINDS WERE BEING AIDED BY 4-5MB/3HR PRES RISE MAX             
THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. CORE OF PRES RISES            
IS NOW OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI...SO STRONGEST WINDS             
HAVE JUST ABOUT PASSED THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS HEADING ESE THRU             
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ARE                 
ALREADY STREAMING E THRU ND INTO NRN MN.                                        
INHERITED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND ONLY REQUIRES MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME STRATOCU WILL BE AROUND               
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...MAINLY ACROSS THE N...ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB                
THERMAL TROF AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATOCU SHOULD BE               
GONE BY MID/LATE AFTN...BUT ALREADY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH             
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIPPING INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W. AS               
FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 800-850MB ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S ARE ON TRACK OVER THE W AND N. WNW               
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER                
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL. AS FOR                
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW             
MORE HRS WITH EXPECTATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS             
PRES RISE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MN                  
DRIFTS E.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
221 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES STILL STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING               
MARK OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AROUND HTL...WEST BRANCH. WITH               
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH...FELT COMPELLED TO EXTEND                    
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OUT A FEW MORE HOURS. WARM AIR GETTING CLOSER            
AS WELL AS SFC DEWPOINTS HEADING TOWARD FREEZING. SO HOPEFULLY WE               
CAN DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST.                                   
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 144 PM.                                                   
AN INTERESTING SITUATION AS THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HUNG UP ALONG               
THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A SIZABLE SFC                
BASED INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WHEN THE                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND              
SHEAR THAT THE KAPX RADAR IS PEGGING AROUND 35 KTS AROUND 1500 FT.              
THE MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD            
FRONT AND BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 50+KTS OVERNIGHT AROUND 1500             
TO 2000 FEET. OTHERWISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TIMED MORE                
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SO HAVE THE                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE            
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE SFC THE                 
FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM.                                                       
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS                   
MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.              
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING REVEALING ABOVE             
FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX TEMP OF +5C                
WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND             
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE                    
MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW PASSING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...                    
     UNTIL 5 PM...MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
144 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...AN INTERESTING SITUATION AS THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HUNG            
UP ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A                   
SIZABLE SFC BASED INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY             
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS CAUSING LOW                
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT THE KAPX RADAR IS PEGGING AROUND 35 KTS AROUND            
1500 FT. THE MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF            
THE COLD FRONT AND BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 50+KTS OVERNIGHT                
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. OTHERWISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE               
TIMED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SO HAVE              
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES            
ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE SFC THE             
FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM.                                                       
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS                   
MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.              
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING REVEALING ABOVE             
FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX TEMP OF +5C                
WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND             
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE                    
MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW PASSING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...UNTIL               
     2 PM...MIZ028>030-033>036-041-042.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1121 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO              
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT               
LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY. STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING                 
REVEALING ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX            
TEMP OF +5C WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z                 
SOUNDINGS AND INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED                
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW               
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
TONIGHT...AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE REGION FOR THE            
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...REACHING 30 KNOTS AOA 2KFT BY                       
06-08Z...RESULTING IN WIND SHEAR...UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOK FOR CLOUDS                
THICKEN UP AROUND THE TVC AREA...DESCENDING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY              
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE BY 16Z IN TVC...AND ACROSS THE APN REGION BY 18-19Z...WHILE            
PLN LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT THIS POINT. THE WARM FRONT                
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOOKS TO            
GET HELD UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT                
MVFR CEILINGS AOA 2KFT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING....AND WILL BE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SMD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...UNTIL               
     2 PM...MIZ028>030-033>036-041-042.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
720 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN            
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH              
INTO SRN LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH              
TO A LINE FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND             
VSBY ARE NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO                
INCREASE OVR LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES                 
CLOSER. CURRENT SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND            
VSBY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND            
INTO THE WRN LAKES. WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS                
AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS              
MORNING...HOWEVER SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST    
ARND 35 KTS.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
TONIGHT...AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE REGION FOR THE            
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...REACHING 30 KNOTS AOA 2KFT BY                       
06-08Z...RESULTING IN WIND SHEAR...UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOK FOR CLOUDS                
THICKEN UP AROUND THE TVC AREA...DESCENDING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY              
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE BY 16Z IN TVC...AND ACROSS THE APN REGION BY 18-19Z...WHILE            
PLN LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT THIS POINT. THE WARM FRONT                
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOOKS TO            
GET HELD UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT                
MVFR CEILINGS AOA 2KFT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING....AND WILL BE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SMD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW EXPANDING UPR RDG             
OVER THE GRT LKS BTWN DEPARTING TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND TROFFING             
OVER THE W. DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOWN ON 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS ON THE WRN            
FLANK OF HI PRES MOVING THRU SE CAN HAS BROUGHT A DRY EVNG TO THE               
FA...BUT STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES              
TROF IN THE WRN PLAINS THAT HAS DVLPD DOWNSTREAM OF STRG SHRTWV                 
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW/SW CAN HAS CAUSED S WINDS TO INCRS TO GALE               
FORCE AT STANNARD ROCK LIGHTHOUSE. SOME PLACES ALG THE LK SUP SHORE             
SHOW S WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH ONLY MID CLD HAVE                 
DVLPD OVER THE FA IN THIS RETURN FLOW THRU MIDNGT AND DESPITE                   
LINGERING SFC-H8 DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL SDNG...SCT ELEVATED               
-TSRA HAVE DVLPD OVER NE MN UNDER SUBTLE H5 THERMAL TROF ASSOCIATED             
WITH WEAK SHRTWV DEPICTED ON RUC ANALYSIS AND AT NOSE OF STRONGEST              
H85-7 SW WINDS (00Z H85/7 WIND SPEED 60KT/50KT AT INL)/H7 WAD/AREA              
OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/GREATEST H7-5 DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVCTN AND               
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES (RUC SHOWS H7-5 LAPSE RATE IN THIS AREA AOA                
7C/KM). MOST NMRS -SHRA/-TSRA APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO ONTARIO...               
BUT SCT -SHRA/FEW LTG STRIKES ARE MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD THE WRN                
ZNS. UPDATE AT 245 AM...CLUSTER OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TS WITH SML HAIL               
REPORTED IS BRUSHING THE NW ZNS. CONSIDERING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER              
RA UNDER THE SHRA AND LO TEMPS/DWPTS IN PLACE...OPTED TO ISSUE FZRA             
ADVY FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY AS WELL AS NRN CMX/KEWEENAW COUNTIES.                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND RAINFALL            
AMTS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRG SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NRN             
ROCKIES. FZRA OVER TH NW OF PRIMARY SHORT TERM FOCUS.                           
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BULK OF -SHRA/-TSRA MOVING INTO ONTARIO            
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RUC FCST TRACK OF AXIS OF STRONGEST H85-7                
WINDS/GREATEST H7-5 LAPSE RATES/H85-5 QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH             
WEAK SHRTWV. BUT MODEL INDICATES H7-5 LAPSE RATES OVER THE W HALF OR            
SO OF THE FA WL INCRS TO 7C/KM BY 12Z...SO PLAN TO KEEP MENTION OF              
AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TS OVER THE W HALF EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE THE               
KEWEENAW IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING TO THE N...WL CARRY                 
GREATER SCT COVG THERE AND MAINTAIN GOING FZRA ADVY UNTIL JUST AFT              
SUNRISE. WEAK SHEAR/MINIMAL POSITIVE AREA IN THE MOST UNSTABLE LYR              
SUG ANY POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA IS AT BEST MINUSCULE DESPITE SML HAIL            
REPORT. ONCE LLJ DEPARTS TO THE N AFT 12Z...GALES ON LK SUP WL GRDLY            
DIMINISH. SUSPECT PCPN CHCS WL ALSO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF                       
DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVCTN MECHANISM AND SINCE SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO             
THE NRN ROCKIES IS FCST TO REACH ONLY NEAR BIS BY 00Z THU. IN                   
FACT...FA IS FCST TO BE DOMINATED BY DEEPER QVECTOR DVGC SO FAR                 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHRTWV. HOWEVER...PLAN TO INCRS POPS AGAIN BY                 
THE AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AS GUIDANCE SHOWS WARM FNT TO             
THE S AND SHRTWV NOW APRNT OVER NEBRASKA APRCHG FM THE SW. WL SPREAD            
THESE POPS GRDLY N LATER...BUT HIEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE S                
CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK. OTRW...DESPITE CLDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH               
INCRSG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SFC/EXTENSIVE              
SC AREA TO THE SW EXPANDING NEWD INTO THE FA SW-NE... SUSPECT TEMPS             
WL RISE STEADILY OVER AT LEAST THE W...WHERE FLOW WL HAVE DOWNSLOPE             
COMPONENT. SLY FLOW OFF LK MI SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE TEMP RECOVERY             
OVER THE E.                                                                     
FOR TNGT...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENT SHRTWV MOVING TO            
NEAR ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z THU. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS BEST DPVA/H85-5                
QVECTOR CNVGC GOING TO THE N ON CYC SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THIS                   
FEATURE. BUT EVEN THOUGH THE FA WL BE INFLUENCED BY ONLY THE COMMA              
TAIL OF THIS FEATURE...ACCOMPANYING SHARP FNT/H85-7 FGEN FORCG                  
INTERACTION WITH PWAT AOA 1 INCH AND RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY              
(GFS SHOWS SSI AS LO AS -4 OVER THE SCNTRL) SHOULD BE ENUF TO                   
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS. IN FACT...MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR ISQ             
AT 06Z (TO COOL THE MID LVLS A BIT MORE THAN FCST) SHOWS CAPE OF                
1175 J/KG LIFTING FM H85. SHEAR IN UNSTABLE LYR IS RATHER                       
UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT FCST MID LVL DRYING IN JET SURGE REGION TO THE S             
OF SHRTWV TRACK ABV WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING RAISES THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SVR HAIL STORM (WBZ FCST JUST ABV 9K FT).                
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NW...THESE AREAS             
WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/BETTER DPVA AND DEEP LYR H85-3                 
QVECTOR CNVGC/SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX THAT                
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO OVERNGT. OTRW...COLD FNT IS FCST TO SWEEP ACRS               
THE FA OVERNGT. PER NCEP PREFERENCE...BLENDED FASTER NAM WITH SLOWER            
GFS TO TIME FROPA. CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV/SPEED OF THE             
FROPA...THINK HVY RA THREAT HAS DIMINISHED A BIT EVEN THOUGH SOME               
LOCALLY HVY RA WL NO DOUBT FALL UNDER THE DEEPER CNVCTN. OTRW...                
STRG WNW WINDS WL DVLP BEHIND THE FNT WITH GFS FCST H9 WIND UP TO 40            
KT AT STANNARD ROCK BY 12Z THU. EXPECT GALES OVER ALL OF LK SUP.                
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW INTO THE UPR LKS...FCST H85 TEMPS TO              
-8C AT CMX (NR INVRN BASE) AND QUICK INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR SUG LES             
WL NOT BE SGNFT. GOING FLURRIES FCST APPEARS ON TRACK.                          
ANY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE E AND FLURRIES OVER THE NCNTRL WL END               
THU MRNG WITH STRG WNW WINDS DRIVING DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. OTRW...             
LOOK FOR BLUSTERY WINDS TO DIMINISH GRDLY WITH ARPCH OF HI PRES RDG             
LATER IN THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON GFS FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS SIMILAR              
GFS/ETA MOS FOR THU HI TEMPS. BUMPED UP FCST LO TEMPS A BIT THU NGT             
WITH EXPECTATION OF INCRS IN MID/HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV GFS/               
UKMET SHOW MOVING TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. HOWEVER...TEMPS OVER THE              
INTERIOR SHOULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVNG WITH LGT WINDS BEFORE CLDS             
INCRS LATER. MODELS SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO TIMING OF SHRTWV              
PASSAGE FRI/FRI NGT...SO FEW CHGS MADE TO WX THIS TIME PD. GENERAL              
SW FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH ON FRI WL DISCOURAGE LK             
MODERATION EXCEPT OVER THE ERN ZNS DOWNWIND OF LK MI.                           
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FOR MIZ001>003.                          
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
340 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE              
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING              
ON THIS EARLY SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY                 
SLOWLY. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A               
WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM              
FRONT WAS NEAR KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING             
NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS              
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS                 
MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS            
CONVERGING ON MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT            
36 HOURS ARE THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                          
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
TONIGHT...AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE REGION FOR THE            
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...REACHING 30 KNOTS AOA 2KFT BY                       
06-08Z...RESULTING IN WIND SHEAR...UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOK FOR CLOUDS                
THICKEN UP AROUND THE TVC AREA...DESCENDING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY              
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE BY 16Z IN TVC...AND ACROSS THE APN REGION BY 18-19Z...WHILE            
PLN LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT THIS POINT. THE WARM FRONT                
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOOKS TO            
GET HELD UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT                
MVFR CEILINGS AOA 2KFT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING....AND WILL BE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SMD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION UNDER AN                
UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CONTINUING OUR LONG ROUND OF DRY WEATHER.                
SHOULD GET SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS        
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS LIFTED OVER OUR THE SOUTHEAST                   
ZONES...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CURRENT               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER              
CHANGES TO THE ZONES./17/                                                       
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG           
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 FOR FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z FRIDAY./17/                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG            
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. VFR                  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z EACH MORNING. /22/            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: 22                                                                  
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
800 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM             
NEAR CONCORDIA NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF OMAHA. REPORTS FROM OAX                    
INDICATED NUMEROUS THREE QUARTER TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER HAIL REPORTS            
WITH THIS LINE. MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT         
THE THREAT OF HAIL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME                  
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                             
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY                      
DIMINISHING. LATEST RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE CAP OVER THE CWA               
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF INSOLATION...SBCAPE AND             
MUCAPE DROP TO 1000-1250 J/KG BETWEEN 09-12Z. SHEAR WILL REMAIN                 
MARGINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO              
REACH A KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON LINE BY 08Z. BY 12Z...ONLY SMALL               
HAIL IS EXPECTED.                                                               
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
331 PM...                                                                       
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PERIODS AS LARGE SCALE              
PATTERN CHANGE HAS PLACED THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION IN A                 
FAVORED AREA FOR REPEATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.                                 
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIRMASS             
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS APPROACHING            
60 DEGREES. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH                
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LEAVING THE             
AREA CAPPED ABOVE AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS CANOPY. PACIFIC COLD                     
FRONT/DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM NORFOLK TO KEARNEY NEBRASKA...AND PER              
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN PRECEDED BY AN INTERESTING                   
GRAVITY WAVE.                                                                   
SHORT MODEL PROGS COLLABORATE WELL WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SHOWING            
THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SE NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT                
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG THE             
ADVANCING FRONT AND JUST EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE LOW. ATTENDANT            
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING LINE              
SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES               
COUPLE WITH INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AFTER DARK. CERTAINLY               
STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE THE GREATER THREAT FOR            
SEVERE. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE THREAT WILL PERSIST             
AFTER DARK...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR             
CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY A             
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. INCREASED                  
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS PRIMARY FOCUSED IN AREAS NORTH             
AND WEST OF A KANSAS CITY TO TRENTON LINE.                                      
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG EAX/SGF CWA BORDER            
TOMORROW MORNING...AND WAFFLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES            
OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EJECTED FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW                     
ENTRENCHED IN THE BAJA. VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TYPE OF              
YEAR...BUT THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY RAISES A RED FLAG THAT CUMULATIVE RAINFALL                
TOTALS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING BY THE WEEKEND.                                   
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS THE                           
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS DEPENDING ON               
ITS DAY TO DAY PLACEMENT AND PROPAGATION. WHERE PERIODIC SUNSHINE IS            
ABLE TO MANIFEST BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...RAPID WARMING INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S-MID 70S COULD OCCUR GIVEN BALMY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES                
BENEATH WEAK 500MB RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. EQUALLY                    
POSSIBLE ARE HIGHS IN THE 50S WHERE MCS INDUCED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD             
DEBRIS KEEP READINGS NEARLY WET BULBED.                                         
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF               
THE CLOSED BAJA LOW INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF STILL              
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS              
ENSEMBLES HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION THE PAST            
SEVERAL RUNS. BEFORE THE MAIN BRUNT OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS                   
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE             
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS WHOSE WRN PERIPHERY SHOULD ALIGN ALONG THE LOWER            
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INVIGORATE LIFT              
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LEAD TO SEVERAL              
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS SFC AND             
LOW LEVEL FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF MISSOURI KEEPING            
FOCUSING MECHANISM FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT                 
PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT               
INTO THE AREA ASSISTED BY A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ...SO HAVE               
CONTINUED A 30-40 PERCENT POP RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE               
THE POSSIBILITY OF A POTENT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY. AS WITH                
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER               
WEST OF THE AREA SHEARED MORE SO OVER THE RIDGE AXIS.                           
REGARDLESS...AS THE WAVE EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASING              
H5/H7 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA                  
OVERTOP OF INCREASING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE LEADING TO HEIGHTENED              
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FORECAST AOA 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME                    
TIME...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
VECTORS AOA 50KT WITH THE REGION SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT              
FRONT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KT UPPER JET. OTHER THAN THE UPPER WAVE              
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PLACEMENT...MAIN UNCERTAINTY                   
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ANY MORNING CONVECTION CONTAMINATING THE                  
MODIFIED AIRMASS PROHIBITING FULL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.                    
AFTER THE UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES...A SFC FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN              
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER LARGE CHUNK OF                 
ENERGY ESTABLISHES A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. PREFER A               
SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THIS LONGWAVE             
FEATURE EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.                   
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THIS RESPECT WHICH KEEPS            
THE AREA MAINLY DRY...ALBEIT QUITE WARM FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST             
PERIOD.                                                                         
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION              
REACHING STJ AROUND 07Z. THE CONVECTION WILL LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS.            
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE              
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...POSSIBLY VERY               
BRIEFLY IFR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE KANSAS              
CITY AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OF THE AIRPORTS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VFR CEILINGS ARE             
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z AT STJ AND AFTER 12Z AT MKC AND MCI.  ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1253 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.                       
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA WITH A SLOW EASTWARD                      
PROGRESSION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY AFFECT NORTH ARKANSAS                 
TOWARDS 12Z AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND VFR ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH                  
WILL DROP TO 2500 FT WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5SM. THE UPPER                   
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OF               
THE AREA AROUND 18Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     56  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  20                              
CAMDEN AR         58  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
HARRISON AR       55  75  58  73 /  20  10  10  40                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  59  76 /  10  10  10  40                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  78  60  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
MONTICELLO AR     58  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  20                              
MOUNT IDA AR      57  78  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  75  56  75 /  20  10  10  40                              
NEWPORT AR        57  76  58  77 /  20  10  10  20                              
PINE BLUFF AR     59  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  77  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
SEARCY AR         58  77  59  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
STUTTGART AR      59  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...51                                                                   
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  56  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
CAMDEN AR         60  80  58  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
HARRISON AR       59  75  55  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MONTICELLO AR     59  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNT IDA AR      58  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  54  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
NEWPORT AR        59  77  57  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
PINE BLUFF AR     60  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  77  56  77 /  20  20  10  10                              
SEARCY AR         60  78  58  77 /  10  10  10  10                              
STUTTGART AR      60  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...38                                                
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
845 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU...OTHERWISE                  
SKIES ARE CLEAR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN BAJA LOW              
ARE JUST EAST OF KERN CO. SOME OF THESE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE                   
ACROSS THE KERN DESERT FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNITE SO PTCLDY THERE               
LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS THIS EVE RUNNING 6-8 DEGS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY               
AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED GOOD WARMING EXPECTED TOMORROW.                     
CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVE.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                          
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINGHAM/MOLINA/MV                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
232 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KERN COUNTY                 
DESERTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.                
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA             
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER              
TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.               
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
916 AM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWINGS EASTWARD THIS                
MORNING AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH CHANNELED FLOW OVER THE                   
DISTRICT. AT THE 250MB LEVEL...RUC ANALYSIS HAS A +100KT JET MAX                
EXITING THE AREA WITH A GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WINDS THIS                    
MORNING. WHILE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE                        
DIMINISHING THIS MID MORNING...WINDS EARLIER WERE ABLE TO REACH 30              
TO 40 MPH. AS THE JET MOVES FURTHER AWAY...WILL SEE MOUNTAIN WINDS              
DECREASE FURTHER AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CALIFORNIA.                  
FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OFF-SHORE WHICH WILL               
SUPPORT THE EXPECTED WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE                 
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT...WILL SEE GENERAL CLEARING                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUAL               
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST ALONG             
THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS                
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 17Z.                   
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE              
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THIS MORNING.                         
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                            
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
328 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST OUR N WITH PREVAILING LOW                  
LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND              
RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE MID-UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL GOMEX NEWD INTO              
THE SE STATES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER           
SE GA SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH ALMA OCCASIONAL REPORTING                 
VIS BELOW 1SM. EXPECT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER ENTIRE CWA NEXT                 
FEW HOURS WITH THE DENSE FOG MAINLY CONFINED IN INTERIOR SE GA.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION                  
WITH A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PINCHING OFF OVER SRN AL AND GA SAT-SUN.                
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE A DEFINITE WARMING TREND FOR                   
MOST AREAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED              
THROUGH EARLY MORNING OVER SE GA WITH PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER AREAS.              
FOR MAX TEMPS PREFERRED A BLEND BUT MOSTLY LIKED THE MAV GUIDANCE               
AS MET VERIFYING A BIT TOO COOL. MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND                    
SECTIONS. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY ELY 10-15 MPH                
WINDS BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS IN AFTERNOON BUT LOWER THAN                      
PREVIOUS DAYS. TONIGHT...STRONGER HIGH PRES ALOFT WITH WEAKER                   
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SPELLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AREAS OF FOG                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR                
SKIES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. SAT...MORNING FOG DISSIPATES                 
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WITH                  
MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY                   
CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. LOWS CONTINUE TO               
BE MOSTLY MID 50S. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES WITH WARM                   
TEMPS FROM MID 80S TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. WILL BE SEEING A                         
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDE DOWN THE E COAST THROUGH CAROLINAS                   
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT-THU. MODEL GUIDANCE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S              
RUN SHOWING BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM AND              
GFS SHOWING FRONT MOVING INTO SE GA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON WITH                    
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. FRONT PUSHES                     
THROUGH ALL THE CWA WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON NE FLOW THANKS TO                
1033 MB HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC. PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE INCREASED                
MON WITH BREEZY CONDS DEVELOPING OVER ERN ZONES. HAVE MOVED UP                  
POPS TO MON AT 20% FOR PORTIONS OF SE GA AND NE FL AS ASSOCD                    
MOISTURE WITH FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SWD              
TUE-THU WITH NO MENTION OF POPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS                      
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILL SEE TEMPO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND                
12Z DUE MAINLY TO VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR. EAST WINDS INCREASE                      
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN...WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS WILL               
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY                   
FOR SEAS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND DROP ON SUNDAY. A STRONG BACK               
DOOR FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST MONDAY AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SCA                
CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH`S AOB 35% POSSIBLE TODAY AND SAT               
AFTN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN NE FL. OTHERWISE NO                    
MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE              
TO 15 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY WHEN                   
A BACK DOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  83  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SSI  74  58  76  57 /   0   0   0  10                                           
JAX  79  55  81  55 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SGJ  74  59  75  60 /  10  10   0  10                                           
GNV  83  53  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
OCF  83  55  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY            
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                   
     OFFSHORE.                                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-                 
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
940 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /TONIGHT/...                                                 
PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...DEPICTING CLOUDS/SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARD            
SHORE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED EAST OF NEW               
ENGLAND...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO GA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 18Z             
NAM12/WRF AND 0Z RUC40 SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH                
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY YET RAISE POPS IF NEEDED...ESP ACROSS SC              
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD              
COVER SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF PATCHY FOG.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RECENT REPORTS FROM AREA BUOYS AND FROM THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH             
PILOT BOATS SUGGEST THAT SEAS ARE BUILDING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND              
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT 6 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY SLIP INTO                   
NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...MOVED UP START TIME OF ONGOING               
SCAS FOR SC/GA NEARSHORE WATERS FROM NOON THU TO 2 AM THU.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z-24Z/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER                   
8Z...WHEN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AT KCHS...WHILE               
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK.               
THEN...AFTER 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER              
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TAFS INDICATE SHOWERS IN THE                
VICINITY UNTIL 9Z...WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL               
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL               
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY. THE                    
INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SWELL                   
SUBSIDES SATURDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF...                                                  
GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING E SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL               
COMPONENT OF TIDES...STILL CLOSE TO THE MARCH 19 NEW MOON...WILL                
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH               
TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WILL NEED TO ASSESS               
NEED FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THU...AS WAVES IN SURF ZONE COULD BE              
CLOSE TO 5 FT. THIS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AT             
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY THU AND THU NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY             
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY             
     FOR AMZ374.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPR                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
130 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST            
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEST             
WIND IN ILLINOIS AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. WITH THIS WIND PATTERN                
ALOFT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A HIGH               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.              
THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL              
ADD THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FROM 11 TO 12 UTC. THIS IS THE TIME OF                 
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT              
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT A                  
SOUTHEAST WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WE USED THE NAM AND A LOCALLY            
RUN WRF MODEL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1100 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
650 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
330 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSPPI RIVER WITH SPC             
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW               
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL               
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1254 AM CDT                                                                     
VIGOROUS S/WV TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST              
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI            
TO ERN IA AT 05Z. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA...AND 0445Z ACARS SOUNDING             
OUT OF KRFD INDICATE 55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IN 930-850 HPA LAYER               
AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL TROF/FRONT. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP LAPSE              
RATES IN THIS LAYER...THOUGH A BIT OF A CAP NOTED AROUND 670 MB.                
ISOLATED WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE            
IN THIS REGION OF MOIST/WAA ACROSS FAR NRN IL...THOUGH APPEARS THEY             
ARE FIGHTING CAP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT COOLING OF MID/UPR LVLS             
WITH APPROACH OF S/WV EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED                
CAPE INCREASING TO 550-650 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED 875-900 HPA. THIS             
ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD BE                 
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TRW AS BOUNDARY ADVANCES ACROSS               
FCST IL. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION IN            
SWRN WI AND SRN IA...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS              
ERN IA. GIVEN STRONG FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY SEE SOME              
GUSTS IN 40 KT RANGE WITH TSTMS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN             
MARGINAL CAPE PROFILES. THUS WILL MAINTAIN TS IN TERMINALS THIS                 
MORNING...MAINLY DURG 09-13Z PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES            
THRU. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH                
STRONG LLVL DRYING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD DECREASE CLOUDS FAIRLY                   
RAPIDLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.           
STRONG SW LLVL WIND FIELD IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT            
RESULTING IN GUSTY 20-30 KT WINDS ATTM. WILL SEE GRADIENT DECREASE              
JUST A BIT WITHIN TROF AXIS TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN WSHFT TO NWLY                 
DIRECTION. SOME GUSTINESS AS SFC PRES RISE BUILDS IN EARLY                      
MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTN AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS               
IN. DVLPMNT OF NE WINDS OFF LAKE A GOOD PROBABILITY VERY LATE                   
AFTN/EARLY EVE AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE. NEXT S/WV AND ELEVATED               
PCPN THREAT BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT WITH NEXT FCST                    
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
745 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...WARM SECTOR AIR OVER TAF ROUTES WITH SCT             
AC AND CI OVR INDIANA WHILE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR WRM FNT                   
ACRS SRN GRTLKS. PATCHY MID CLOUD EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT            
MEANS VFR TO CONTINUE TIL DAYBREAK WHILE GUSTY WINDS AT SUNSET TODAY            
BECOME STEADY OVRNGT. MODELS TIMING OF CDFNT THU FAIRLY SIMILAR AND             
APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO AND DURING FROPA SO HAVE             
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST TIL THEN. EXPECT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA            
AND CB DURING CDFNT PASSAGE AND TREND TO MVFR CIGS OVC020 IN COLD               
AIR BEHIND FNT. INCREASED STABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO END OF TSHRA                 
SHORTLY AFT FROPA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...TUCEK                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
410 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                     
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...KOCH                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
100 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SPLIT UPPR FLOW DVLPG ACRS THE COUNTRY OVR THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF DAYS. WK DISTURBANCES WL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN                   
PLAINS...WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM SYS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE              
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES EWD INTO THE UPPR GRTLKS ON THURS. THIS SYS WL               
BRING A CDFNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY THURS AFT/NIGHT. MODELS IN                 
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON            
POPS.                                                                           
LIFT AHEAD OF WK SHORT WV TROF OVR WRN IL CAUSING SHWRS TO BREAK OUT            
ACRS THE AREA. 21/00Z UA INDICATES NOSE OF LLJ POINTED MORE TOWARDS             
SRN LI MI...SO WOULD XPCT THE BULK OF THE HVR PCPN TO STAY NW OF THE            
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORN. BASED ON MODEL DATA...WV SHOULD PUSH OFF            
TO THE NE BY SUNRISE...SO PCPN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME.             
H20 LOOP LOOKS PRETTY MESSY IN THE SRN STREAM...WITH INDICATIONS OF             
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PSBLY OVR NEBRASKA AND ERN OK. CONSIDERING              
ABV AND THE FACT THAT LLJ WL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THRU                    
TONIGHT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN THE FCST THRU TONIGHT.                   
APPEARS CDFNT WL BE MOVG INTO THE NWRN ZONES BY THURS AFT. GOOD                 
INFLOW INTO THE FNT WITH 850MB WNDS PROGGED ARND 40KTS. THIS                    
SUGGESTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD DVLP INVOF FNT. WL GO WITH HI            
POPS BY THURS AFT AS A RESULT.                                                  
MODELS INDICATE FNT MAY STALL OUT NEARBY TOWARDS THE END OF THE                 
WEEK. 850MB FLOW INTO THE FNT REMAINS RATHER HEALTHY AS                         
WELL...SUGGESTING HVY RAINFALL TOTALS PSBL LT IN THE WEEK IF MODEL              
SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.                                                         
BASED ON PROGGED LO LVL THICKNESSES...NGM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK               
REASONABLE AT THIS PT...SO WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM THEM.                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...JAS                                                                    
AVIATION...KOCH                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
309 PM CST WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE NW FOURTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.                
TSRA MOVED INTO THE WRN COUNTIES AHEAD OF H5 S/W MVNG THROUGH                   
CENTRAL IA...THEN REFORMED INTO AN E/W LINE ALONG INSTABILITY                   
GRADIENT OVER SE IA.  SO FAR JUST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORTS             
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS.  COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE WRN MN            
THROUGH ERN NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT            
NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO FAR NOT MUCH IN            
THE WAY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITH SURFACE FRONT WITH STRONG CAP              
NOTED ON KOAX 18Z SOUNDING...SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...                                           
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CURRENT             
WATCH AND ANTICIPATE CANCELLING THE SEVERE WATCH EARLY FOR MOST OF              
THE WATCH AREA. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CWA LATE THIS                
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES THE                 
NCNTRL STATES.  LOOKING AT A RUC FCST NR KOMA FOR THIS                          
AFTERNOON...IT SHOWS THE STRONG CAP DISSIPATING BY 00Z...SO EXPECT              
CONVECTION TO FORM IN WRN IA BY EARLY EVENING ON THE FRONT AND REACH            
THE NWRN CWA AROUND 03Z ...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE SERN CWA BTWN 09Z            
AND 12Z. FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL MO/IL THURSDAY            
AFTN/EVE.  HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE PREV FCST FOR               
TONIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WITH SOME MODEST CAPE AROUND                    
1000J/KG PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER ERN IA THROUGH THE EVENING.  BELIEVE            
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL               
THREAT IN ANY ONE AREA.  PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WILL BE              
THE SRN MOST COUNTIES WAS THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED            
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                
THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK               
NORTH INTO NRN MO/CNTRAL IL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG/MOIST SLWY LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY...AND FUELING STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE.                  
REPEAT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ORIENTED PARALLEL             
TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND A SWLY LLJ POINTED AT NW MO/SW IA MOST OF             
THE NIGHT.  MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY HANDLING THE                
WARM FRONT. THE GFS PULLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH WELL INTO IA WHILE THE             
NAM/UKMET KEEP SOUTH AS THEY BRING S/W ENERGY THROUGH NRN STREAM.               
SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO THE SRN              
COUNTIES.  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS              
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SRN STREAM CUT OFF                         
LOW...LIFTING IT NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY.                  
BASED ON THIS HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS HIER ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  LONG RANGE                  
MODELS THEN DEVELOP DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR               
MID WEEK.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FCST DRY TO MODELS ESTABLISH SOME RUN             
TO RUN CONTINUITY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1038 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT HAD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF               
HIGHWAY 50 AT MID-MORNING...WITH THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTING              
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH              
OF EARLY MORNING GRID PACKAGE...SO HAVE REFLECTED THE CHANGES IN                
THE LATEST GRID/FORECAST UPDATE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR                  
THIS AFTERNOON...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON DIURNAL HEATING (IE. CLOUD                
TRENDS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE SOME               
HOLES INTO MIDDAY...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO ENCROACH SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
BOUNDARY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL ML                 
CAPES OF AROUND 1800 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO LITTLE CHANGE                
TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AND FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING LATE THIS                    
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TSRA CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND AND ALSO TEMPS.                                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN KS AT              
THIS TIME. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT               
HELPING TO GET ELEVATED STORMS GOING.  QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR                
SOUTH /IF AT ALL/  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER            
THIS MORNING. SOME PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO            
PREFER THE NAM-WRF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT GENERALLY ALONG AN EMP-HUT             
LINE BEFORE IT STALL.  WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OUT             
IS THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ECHOES. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO              
BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN TSRA CHANCE WILL BE THIS              
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND                      
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K LAYER WILL STEEPEN LAPSE                 
RATES ENOUGH FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS            
MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT            
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR               
AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER AREAS WITH                 
SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTH                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BUT DAY SHIFT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BETTER             
DEFINE THIS ONCE BOUNDARY DECIDES TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS.                
WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS IN SOUTHERN KS AS BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF            
THIS AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.                         
TONIGHT:                                                                        
BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH                
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SO EXPECT             
SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY BUT PROBABLY DIMINISHING                  
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LIFT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME TRANING STORMS IN              
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SO FLOODING THREAT WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO              
BE WATCHED.                                                                     
FRI-FRI NIGHT:                                                                  
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION             
FOR FRI.  MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL                  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS             
AS ANY WEAK IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT               
TSRA CHANCE TO BE WIDESPREAD.                                                   
BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN               
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL STILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW              
AS PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IN LATER RUNS WILL BETTER DEFINE                   
HIGHEST POP AREAS.                                                              
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY REMAINS               
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ON SAT FOR BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AGAIN             
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN AND MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE              
AREA UNTIL SUN EVENING. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY            
RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
SEVERE THREAT ON SAT AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAVORABLE BUT INSTABILITY             
LOOKS MODEST.                                                                   
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                               
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS             
FINALLY MOVE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY             
WILL BE A DAY TO DRY OUT WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LAYERS. A                 
RATHER RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED FOR ANOTHER              
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION.                                                   
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    74  59  72  58 /  50  60  40  40                                
HUTCHINSON      70  58  72  57 /  40  50  40  40                                
NEWTON          71  58  71  57 /  50  60  40  40                                
ELDORADO        73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  60  73  59 /  60  60  40  40                                
RUSSELL         61  51  71  53 /  20  30  40  40                                
GREAT BEND      64  53  71  55 /  30  40  40  40                                
SALINA          63  52  69  54 /  30  50  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       67  56  71  56 /  40  50  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     76  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
CHANUTE         74  60  72  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
IOLA            73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-083-092>096-                  
098>100.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
440 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.                                                
INTERESTING SET UP TODAY WITH SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD                   
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD                 
ELEVATED LIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC BNDRY BY MIDDAY ALONG OR              
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OPTIMUM ELEVATED LIFT WITH FAIRLY GOOD             
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN            
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS. NO             
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED YET...BUT BEARS WATCHING IN 12Z RUN. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES EXCEEDINGLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RUNNING NEARLY            
250% OF NORMAL! THIS HIGH WATER CONTENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND              
AND DOES NOT REALLY GET MODIFIED TO ANY GREAT EXTENT UNTIL UPPER                
SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH               
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                                        
SETUP FOR SEVERE TODAY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                      
WARMFRONT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION             
TO FRONTAL AREA OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARMER AND THE                  
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE EVEN GREATER. SHEAR SEEMS TO BE                 
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY AS WELL.                                  
TEMPERATURES IN TURN A REAL CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TO              
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED NAM CLOSELY WITH IT`S SFC                 
TEMPERATURE FCST. THUS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE              
LOWER 70S SOUTH.                                                                
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WAITING             
FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF MEAN WESTERN TROF POSITION. THIS              
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER                  
CHANCE APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM                 
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.                                                
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST NOT CHANGED MUCH AS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO              
ADD MUCH DETAIL OR FIND REASONS TO MAKE CHANGES IN SUCH AN UNSETTLED            
PATTERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
358 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HELPED PUSH A                   
COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF SW KS. THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM STRETCHED                
FROM NORTH OF HUGOTON TO HUTCHINSON. SFC TEMPS WERE VERY BALMY                  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT(71 AT BUFFALO,OK AND 65 AT LIBERAL). THE SFC                 
DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AN                          
UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. 500MB                    
TEMPS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS WERE                         
FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO. IN FACT THE NAM HAS 500MB TEMPS                     
AROUND -13C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO                 
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60SF ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS. A LARGE AREA                
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING NE INTO NM AND WEST TX.                   
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS TODAY...THE                    
LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF                      
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE NAM/GFS AND SOME OF THE RUC                 
MEMBERS SURGE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY TO A GCK TO HAYS                
LINE. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RUC13 SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THIS               
MODEL KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALL DAY. WITH BROKEN MID                
TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW... TEMPS WILL STAY IN                 
THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OK STATE LINE               
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.                                                      
I EXPECT THE SFC DRYLINE TO STRETCH FROM DALHART TO CARLSBAD,NM                 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT CLOSE TO                
DALHART. FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING...SOME ELEVATED HEATING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...      
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE                    
INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LOCAL POOLING                 
OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SFC BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG             
FROM P28 TO ENGLEWOOD. AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA...A FEW OF                 
THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                       
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR                   
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BUT AS WE HAVE                  
SEEN IN THE RECENT PAST...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPES                  
AROUND 1000 J/KG CAN BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO                
TONIGHT. BUT THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE                        
BY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS                      
ON SATURDAY. SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY               
SAKE AND SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.                                       
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING EXTENDED.  BOTH THE UKMET AND             
GFS BRING AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM UP FROM SOUTHERN BAHA CALIFORNIA TO               
WESTERN KANSAS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE WE HAVE 40               
POPS GOING NOW.  THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEARS OUT.  TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND IN              
LINE WITH SURROUNDING WFO GRIDS.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM...PERHAPS            
WITH 80S SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA.  LEFT TUES MAX T`S ALONE FOR NOW...AS            
OUR SW HAS MID 70S GOING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...STRATUS WILL LIKELY             
FORM AT DDC AND GCK IN THE 012 TO 015 FEET RANGE BY 11Z THIS                    
MORNING.  DO NOT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LINGER MUCH BEYOND 15-16Z.               
ALSO...FOG WITH VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM RANGE WILL FORM AT DDC...GCK AND             
HYS AND LAST THROUGH 15Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  68  53  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
GCK  64  45  72  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
EHA  71  47  71  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
LBL  73  51  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
HYS  61  48  72  55 /  20  20  20  20                                           
P28  76  59  70  61 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN24/12                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CUT OFF LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE             
UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.             
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON FINER DETAILS. EVEN AS                
EARLY AS TODAY...NAM BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER               
THE AREA/WHEREAS GFS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANYTHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
INCONCLUSIVE...SINCE JUST SEE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DEEP                  
TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LITTLE TO GO ON WILL PLAY            
THE PERCENTAGES AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT RELIABLE RUC CEILING            
FORECAST SHOWS 2KFT BROKEN DECK OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH            
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS A RESULT.              
FRIDAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...THOUGH MODELS SWITCH PLACES WITH              
GFS WET AND NAM DRY. IT DOES APPEAR THE AREA WILL COME UNDER                    
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH DEVELOPS FRIDAY                    
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE MIDWEST. SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE             
SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA. NONETHELESS...ISC CONSTRAINTS WILL                 
DICTATE LOW CHANCE POPS. THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MAIN LOW               
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH LENDS LITTLE TO             
NO CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGES               
GIVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH              
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
258 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF/WHEN CONVECTION WILL                     
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR                 
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS              
AND BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG THE DRYLINE               
WERE BETWEEN 82-86F. ALSO NOTICING CAPES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT WERE AT 15-2K J/KG WITH IMPROVING MOIST CONV. THE RUC40 ALSO              
WAS FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE                   
TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED LATE TODAY SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS GO                
UP QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE                  
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED              
AS WE APPROACH 4 PM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/CU DEVELOPMENT.                
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AS A NORTHERN                
BRANCH S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                   
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AND WEAK LIFT OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY               
RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                            
THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDANT ON                
WHERE OUR FRONT WILL BE. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUR SURFACE FRONT               
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.                 
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST SYSTEM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT, MOISTURE AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL                 
THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AND TAPER POPS OFF                   
FURTHER NW AND HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.              
BY FRIDAY THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SW KS.                     
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW                  
EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE                
EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                  
HIGHS FRIDAY.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE THIS MORNING THE                           
GFS/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE                  
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING                
IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP SET THE SCENCE FOR                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE                         
REGION...MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG                 
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. WITH UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE                
OUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MUCH DRIER             
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK. DECIDED TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE                
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THEN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE                   
RETURNING TO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. HOWEVER JUST TOO EARLY TO SEE               
IF THIS WILL BECOME A MID WEEK MOISTURE PRODUCER.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA.              
BETWEEN 09-12Z LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS OF 5SM BR                 
AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE                  
CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BETWEEN 09-15Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  49  63  48  68 /  20  20  20   0                                           
GCK  45  64  46  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
EHA  47  66  51  72 /  10  10  10   0                                           
LBL  50  68  51  72 /  10  20  20   0                                           
HYS  47  57  47  66 /  30  10  10   0                                           
P28  56  66  54  68 /  30  50  50   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/31                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
242 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF/WHEN CONVECTION WILL                     
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR                 
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS              
AND BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG THE DRYLINE               
WERE BETWEEN 82-86F. ALSO NOTICING CAPES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT WERE AT 15-2K J/KG WITH IMPROVING MOIST CONV. THE RUC40 ALSO              
WAS FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE                   
TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED LATE TODAY SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS GO                
UP QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE                  
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED              
AS WE APPROACH 4 PM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/CU DEVELOPMENT.                
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AS A NORTHERN                 
BRANCH S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER DYNAMIC FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                    
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AND WEAK LIFT OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY               
RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                            
THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDANT ON                
WHERE OUR FRONT WILL BE. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUR SURFACE FRONT               
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.                 
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST SYSTEM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT, MOISTURE AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL                 
THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AND TAPER POPS OFF                   
FURTHER NW AND HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.              
BY FRIDAY THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SW KS.                     
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW                  
EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE                
EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                  
HIGHS FRIDAY.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE                     
GFS/ECMWF/NAM TO BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE            
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING                
IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP SET THE SCENCE FOR                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE                         
REGION...MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE     
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO                
KICK OFF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE OUT THE                   
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                               
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MUCH DRIER             
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK. DECIDED TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE FIRST             
PART OF THE WEEK. THEN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE RETURNING TO            
OUR PART OF THE WORLD. HOWEVER JUST TOO EARLY TO SEE IF THIS WILL               
BECOME A MID WEEK MOISTURE PRODUCER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA.              
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGRY CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP               
BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 09-12Z LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED                
WITH VSBYS OF 5SM BR AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST SO                 
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BETWEEN                  
09-15Z. &&                                                                      
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  49  63  48  68 /  20  20  20   0                                           
GCK  45  64  46  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
EHA  47  66  51  72 /  10  10  10   0                                           
LBL  50  68  51  72 /  10  20  20   0                                           
HYS  47  57  47  66 /  30  10  10   0                                           
P28  56  66  54  68 /  30  50  50   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/31                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR                
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AT SDF AND LEX. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE             
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION                  
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AT BWG             
OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS DECENT SOUTHERLY               
WINDS AT 1500FT (25KT) WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.             
ALSO NOTED THAT A 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PRESENT EVEN            
NOW WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBS.                                                
SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED            
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS LEX AND SDF. CEILINGS WILL STAY             
VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXCEPT UNDERNEATH ANY LOCAL SHOWERS. JSD                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFY CNVCTN AT THIS           
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
902 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. ADDED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE POP FOR SW INDIANA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF               
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER                 
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO/EASTERN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS            
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS KEEP QUASI                     
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE                 
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI              
OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE A SE MOVEMENT TO ANY              
ORGANIZED MCS THAT DEVELOPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH THE                 
ENTIRE PERIOD...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT.                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK DOWN TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS                 
RIGHT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE AREA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE                
WEAKENING AND FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE AIRMASS                 
THOROUGHLY WORKED OVER...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE             
AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO HAVE MUCH POP IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.             
WILL HOWEVER...INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT            
TO FIT IN TO SOME DEGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.                                        
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL             
DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE              
REGION. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST              
THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE GFS BRINGS INTO OUR WEST JUST BEFORE 12Z.                 
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN RAMP UP TO               
50-60 POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR             
A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IF IT IS AS FOCUSED AS TODAYS                      
CONVECTION HAS BEEN...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET WET. THEREFORE WILL NOT            
GO HIGHER THAN 60S FOR NOW.  THOSE 60S WILL BE IN THE NORTH WHERE               
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF. THE NAM IS NOT SURE            
ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING WET.                                           
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST...SO            
WILL LEAVE A 20-30 POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE               
FRONT RE-LOCATES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE FOCUS               
FOR CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO REGENERATE            
CONVECTION ALL OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS THE LONE MODEL             
THAT DOES NOT BUILD A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL              
THEREFORE IGNORE ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW.                                          
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE GLORIOUS WITH TEMPS PUSHING 80 EACH                 
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                  
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVEN THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO DRAG SOME                 
REMNANT OF THE SW U.S. CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY              
OR TUESDAY. WILL THROW IN 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST              
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK             
DRY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA ON             
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE                  
ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN            
THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOMORROW WHERE THE                  
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CERTAIN               
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
953 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO                   
ACROSS PORTIONS OR THE NORTHERN AREA AROUND SDF AND LEX...NOT SO                
MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                                      
-SCHOTT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                               
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                              
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
144 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. RADAR               
HOWEVER CURRENTLY SHOWS THESE HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME ADDITIONAL                  
SHOWERS ATM ARE JUST NORTH OF OUR NW COUNTIES MOVING W TO EAST JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. RUC AND WRF-NAM BOTH KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                  
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS              
ARE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON..IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS IS             
CONFINED PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE SPINE OF              
THE APPALACHIANS. BELIEVE THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT             
POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE ENTIRE PERIOD. IF RUC/NAM FORECAST DOES PAN            
OUT...WE`LL ADDRESS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.                         
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH                
FORECAST GRIDS.                                                                 
UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...POPS...AND MORNING            
WORDING. NEAR TERM WINDS WERE REFRESHED USING RUC GUIDANCE.                     
...REMAINDER OF EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING SIMILAR DIFFERENCES ALOFT AS THEY WERE LAST           
NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A CLOSING LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH A WAVE               
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN FOR EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE THE              
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS...THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER               
AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING BAJA LOW THE GFS               
REMAINS FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM           
WAVE PASSING AND THE BAJA LOW OPENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK             
WEEK...KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF AWASH IN FAST MOVING MINOR WAVES.              
THESE WILL BE RUNNING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE ZONAL                
FLOW FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. DESPITE THE            
NAM HAVING MORE SUPPORT WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM               
WAVE EARLY ON...THE GFS IS FAVORED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON GIVEN             
ITS APPARENT BETTER HANDLING OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.             
FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL POSITION              
...BUT FOLLOWED THE NAM/S EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL                
WAVES THAT PASS OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATTER               
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                          
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURNING OFF AND                
MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND ONLY             
AN SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE               
FORECAST FOR TODAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                 
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...             
AND ONLY PARTIAL CLOUDINESS...RESULTING IN RADIATIONAL FOG. A WAVE              
SEEN IN THE GFS THAT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOO            
FAR AWAY TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEXT...A COLD FRONT                
FROM THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SAG TOWARD KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY             
BEFORE STRETCHING OUT AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN                 
HALF OF THE STATE LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED             
AND PERSISTENT PERIOD OF DECENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...           
SPURNED ALONG BY THE MINOR UPPER WAVES SPINNING OUT OF THE OPENING              
SOUTHWESTERN LOW.                                                               
WITH THE TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TODAY AND              
THURSDAY...THOUGH HELD THE DIURNAL RISE BACK A BIT THIS MORNING UNTIL           
THE FOG BURNS OFF. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND. AT              
NIGHT...THE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO WENT WITH A BLEND...ALONG WITH              
SOME SITE SPECIFIC TWEAKING. THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET               
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/                                         
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE                       
WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF            
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITHIN THE               
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN FEATURES OF              
INFLUENCE WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH AN                 
EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.                      
ECMWF WASHES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OUT TO THE SOUTH...WITH A                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LENDING IT`S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROGGED RIDGE THEN SLOWS AS WELL DAMPENS               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
GFS STARTS OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN              
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEEPING THE FRONT                  
AROUND LONGER AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY                            
SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE              
MODEST RIDGING TAKES PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MUCH MORE ROBUST                   
PROGGED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH                
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.                           
HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE MODELS. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT             
LATELY...HOWEVER FEEL THAT IT DOES DAMPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT             
TOO MUCH AS IT BRINGS IT IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT            
OVERDONE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE                  
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING...WHILE INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE              
WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL                     
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. GENERALLY STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN               
MOS...THINKING THAT THE NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOL WITH THE OVERPLAYED              
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
WARM FRONT HAS EDGED NORTH TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG OUR             
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS KICKED UP             
EARLIER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS NO                
ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED              
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST                  
PERIOD. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP            
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS BACK INTO             
THE REGION. TIMING RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE THE 24-HOUR TAF                
PERIOD...SO CONDITIONS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THIS 18Z-18Z TAF.                   
SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING SHOWERS             
/ LOWERING CEILINGS IN ANOTHER CHANGE GROUP. FOR NOW...CEILINGS/                
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING              
THIS EVENING FROM HIGH CIRRUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON TO MID-LEVELS THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCLANE/GREIF                                                       
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...MCLANE                                                               
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1120 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A MID LEVEL VORT WAS INDUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP CLOUDS AND WHAT            
APPEARED TO BE VIRGA OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE PAH FCST AREA. RUC               
MODEL INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE ENE OUT OF THE AREA BY            
18Z OR SO...WITH NO CLEAR ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISMS ARRIVING                
INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LOW               
POPS THIS AFTN...DUE TO PLENTIFUL WARM AIR ABOVE 850 MB.                        
THEREFORE...WE WILL DROP THE AFTN CHANCES OF RAIN/TSTMS AND LIGHTEN             
UP ON THE CLOUD WORDING A BIT. THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DECENT             
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...THUS WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH IN MANY AREAS.            
ZONE UPDATE OUT SOON.                                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST.                 
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN               
ILLINOIS AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST                   
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL IOWA.  NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON               
THE ONGOING PRECIP...SO LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.                   
DROPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS             
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT             
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS            
FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.  NAM IS MORE                    
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO              
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 18Z THU...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT A LITTLE                
FARTHER NORTHWEST AND KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF OUT OF OUR AREA.              
LEANED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW...FOCUSING POPS             
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA...WITH BEST POPS IN FAR NORTHERN            
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
BY 12Z FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE IN SYNC WITH THE                  
FRONTAL POSITION...BUT GFS HAS MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY                   
NIGHT.  PREFERRING GFS...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR                
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHEST                   
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO             
CHANCE POPS NORTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED THIS TREND INTO              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE                  
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWER               
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  BY LATE                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST.  ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS               
FEATURE...SO FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST              
HALF OF THE PAH FA...WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                                   
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND.  USED A MAV/MET COMPROMISE FOR THE NEAR TERM                       
TEMPS...WHICH ONLY REQUIRED MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN               
WARMED UP LOWS AND HIGHS JUST A LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON. IN THE EXTENDED...BASED ON LATEST MEX TWEAKED DOWN LOWS              
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY JUST A LITTLE...OTHERWISE MADE LITTLE IF ANY                
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RST                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1112 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED                            
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. RADAR               
HOWEVER CURRENTLY SHOWS THESE HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME ADDITIONAL                  
SHOWERS ATM ARE JUST NORTH OF OUR NW COUNTIES MOVING W TO EAST JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. RUC AND WRF-NAM BOTH KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                  
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS              
ARE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON..IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS IS             
CONFINED PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE SPINE OF              
THE APPALACHIANS. BELIEVE THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT             
POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE ENTIRE PERIOD. IF RUC/NAM FORECAST DOES PAN            
OUT...WE`LL ADDRESS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.                         
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH                
FORECAST GRIDS.                                                                 
UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...POPS...AND MORNING            
WORDING. NEAR TERM WINDS WERE REFRESHED USING RUC GUIDANCE.                     
...REMAINDER OF EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING SIMILAR DIFFERENCES ALOFT AS THEY WERE LAST           
NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A CLOSING LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH A WAVE               
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN FOR EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE THE              
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS...THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER               
AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING BAJA LOW THE GFS               
REMAINS FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM           
WAVE PASSING AND THE BAJA LOW OPENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK             
WEEK...KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF AWASH IN FAST MOVING MINOR WAVES.              
THESE WILL BE RUNNING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE ZONAL                
FLOW FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. DESPITE THE            
NAM HAVING MORE SUPPORT WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM               
WAVE EARLY ON...THE GFS IS FAVORED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON GIVEN             
ITS APPARENT BETTER HANDLING OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.             
FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL POSITION              
...BUT FOLLOWED THE NAM/S EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL                
WAVES THAT PASS OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATTER               
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                          
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURNING OFF AND                
MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND ONLY             
AN SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE               
FORECAST FOR TODAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                 
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...             
AND ONLY PARTIAL CLOUDINESS...RESULTING IN RADIATIONAL FOG. A WAVE              
SEEN IN THE GFS THAT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOO            
FAR AWAY TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEXT...A COLD FRONT                
FROM THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SAG TOWARD KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY             
BEFORE STRETCHING OUT AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN                 
HALF OF THE STATE LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED             
AND PERSISTENT PERIOD OF DECENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...           
SPURNED ALONG BY THE MINOR UPPER WAVES SPINNING OUT OF THE OPENING              
SOUTHWESTERN LOW.                                                               
WITH THE TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TODAY AND              
THURSDAY...THOUGH HELD THE DIURNAL RISE BACK A BIT THIS MORNING UNTIL           
THE FOG BURNS OFF. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND. AT              
NIGHT...THE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO WENT WITH A BLEND...ALONG WITH              
SOME SITE SPECIFIC TWEAKING. THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET               
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/                                         
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE                       
WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF            
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITHIN THE               
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN FEATURES OF              
INFLUENCE WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH AN                 
EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.                      
ECMWF WASHES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OUT TO THE SOUTH...WITH A                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LENDING IT`S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROGGED RIDGE THEN SLOWS AS WELL DAMPENS               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
GFS STARTS OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN              
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEEPING THE FRONT                  
AROUND LONGER AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY                            
SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE              
MODEST RIDGING TAKES PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MUCH MORE ROBUST                   
PROGGED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH                
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.                           
HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE MODELS. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT             
LATELY...HOWEVER FEEL THAT IT DOES DAMPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT             
TOO MUCH AS IT BRINGS IT IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT            
OVERDONE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE                  
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING...WHILE INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE              
WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL                     
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. GENERALLY STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN               
MOS...THINKING THAT THE NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOL WITH THE OVERPLAYED              
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
DENSE FOG IS A PROBLEM AT THE TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME. HOWEVER LOZ           
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL             
BE INCREASING AFTER 14Z AS STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE             
AREA LIFTS NORTH. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AND CIGS RISE INTO THE           
VFR RANGE BY THAT TIME... WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A                
SHOWER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY... HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE              
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.                                    
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-                     
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCLANE/GREIF                                                       
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...ABE/GREIF                                                            
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AREA MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYERED MOISTURE THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE COLUMN. SFC OBS/SATL DATA CONFIRMS SCT-BKN                          
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACRS FORECAST AREA THIS LATE MORNING BUT THE                
CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR TO BE BREAKING AND THINNING. THEREFORE EXPECT              
SKY CONDITION WILL AVERAGE PTSUNNY DURING THE AFTN. INSOLATION                  
SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FCSTD VALUES RANGING                 
FROM M60S ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO M70S OVER PIEDMONT...BUT OF                 
COURSE COOLER WHERE FLOW IS ONSHORE. LTL IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO               
FCST ATTM BUT UPDATED FCST TO REFRESH PRODUCTS.                                 
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
DECIDED TO ADD SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WTRS FROM SMITH POINT                 
TO NEW POINT COMFORT...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT WAVES. RUC                
AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST INCRSG SFC WINDS AFTER 18Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW               
AROUND 15 KT AT SFC UNDER WEAK INVERSION WITH 25-30 KTS ABOVE                   
INVERSION. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS DOWN TO SFC.               
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT SO                   
OPTED NOT TO GO FOR SCA FOR SOUTHERN BAY BUT STEADY 15 KT. ON CSTL              
WTRS...EXPECT 15-20 KT SOUTH WINDS FROM FENWICK DOWN TO PARRAMORE               
WITH LONGER FETCH BUILDING SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA AFTER 2 PM.                     
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT/SAT                 
NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS                             
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH. THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH                
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 513 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD               
FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST                 
REGIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONERN TODAY WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER                
EXTENT (DEPTH) AND THUS IMPACT ON TEMPS.                                        
GFS/NAM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE ACCORD IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH                   
TONIGHT). BOTH INDICATE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE MASON-              
DIXON LINE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED AS THE              
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ENCOUNTERS A ZONAL/FLAT UPPER                  
RIDGE. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING/MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR POPS                    
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. AS FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW               
VEERS TOWARD THE S-SW RESULTING IN MORE APPRECIABLE WARMING (AND                
RELATIVE DRYING) WITHING THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. STILL EXPECT                    
PERIODIC WAVES OF HIGHER BASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTN AS WE GET INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...THUS HAVE WORDED PARTLY SUNNY. BASED ON RECENT                
TRENDS (YDAY)...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS TODAY FOR               
HIGH TEMPS. THIS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED                       
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN (ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH THE LATE MARCH               
SUN ANGLE).                                                                     
TONIGHT...FRONT DIPS INTO NRN VA AND THE NRN PTN OF THE DELMARVA.               
HAVE INCLUDED LOW (30-40%) POPS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA                   
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FLATTENING UPPER              
FLOW (AND NEGLIGIBLE STRAIGHT UPPER JET FORCING)...DYNAMICS AND THUS            
MOISTURE DEPTHS REMAIN LACKING. S OF FVX-RIC-MFV...MOISTURE IS                  
JUST TOO SHALLOW (PARTICULARLY IN LOW LEVELS) FOR POPS.                         
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS IS TOO                   
QUICK WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST-                 
OH VLY-MID ATLC REGION. SIDING MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND...                 
EXPECT A NW-SE DRAPED SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...             
WITH THE FRONT TAKING ON THE TYPICAL "SAG" EAST TOWARD THE COOLER               
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT EXPECT A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE...          
I.E. AROUND 80/LOWER 80S INLAND TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE LOWER ERN                
SHORE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LOW POPS OVER              
THE N-NE ZONES ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.                       
SATURDAY...GFS IS MUCH COOLER WITH THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO                 
THE OTHER MODELS...BASICALLY A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MODEL BEING TOO              
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL UPPER SHORTWAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE         
STATIONARY FRONT. GFS (MAV) MOS GUIDANCE IN FACT IS SOME 20+                    
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS OVER INLAND LOCALES COMPARED TO THE              
NAM (MET) GUIDANCE! FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM/          
ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT DROP THE FRONT S OF THE LOWER DELMARVA                   
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON THESE PROJECTIONS...EXPECT ANOTHER              
DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SW (80-85) TO                  
AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE (LOW-MID                
50S).                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/ECWMF TRENDS...AND WITH THE LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SAT-SUN...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO                
THE FCSTS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM              
THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE (OFFSHORE) ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR A                    
COOLER DAY OVER THE NERN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH AGAIN                   
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MUCH MILDER AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SW. TOWARD               
PETERSBURG/FARMVILLE/SOUTH HILL.                                                
AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE MVFR CIGS              
NORTH AND WEST...VFR SOUTH. FLOW TURNS TO S OR SW LATER TODAY WITH              
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BY AFTN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. MVFR CIGS MAY            
HANG TOUGH ON THE ERN SHORE THRU 16-18Z. CONTINUED VFR TONIGHT AS               
MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.                                
MARINE...GRADIENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.                
CHILLY BAY WATERS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX THESE               
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC...SO OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE BAY &                
SOUND BELOW SMALL CRAFT (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE LATER THIS AFTN).            
ON COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW (NEAR 20 KTS BY AFTN)             
WILL LIKELY BRING SEAS TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (5 FT                 
WAVES OFFSHORE) N OF PARRAMORE ISL...FROM LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH             
ERLY MRNG THU.  DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD               
FRONT SAT/SAT NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS               
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH.  THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH               
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SE TO S FLOW THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY                        
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY AFTN FOR MUCH OF INLAND VA.               
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO RH VALUES DO NOT DROP OFF              
THAT MUCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT 35-45% AT THE DRIEST.             
FARTHER EAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MIXING                  
SOMEWHAT SO WINDS LIKELY STAY MORE FROM DUE SOUTH AT 15 KTS OR LESS.            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT              
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN/FOSTER                                               
</pre> md                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN TONIGHT.           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES                  
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NEXT SHORTWAVE             
IN THE FAST FLOW IS OVER NW ND. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE            
WERE SPREADING ACROSS NRN MN...AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD              
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. RADARS SHOW A DECENT AREA OF                  
RETURNS ACROSS FAR NE ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SFC OBS THAT                   
REPORT VSBY ARE SPARSE IN THAT AREA...SO DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH             
PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST FEW HRS...A COUPLE           
OF OBS IN SRN MANITOBA HAVE REPORTED 1-4SM IN -SN. WELL TO THE                  
W...SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES A DAY OR TWO AGO               
OVER THE W COAST HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST S             
OF CA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE                 
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE E...CROSSING UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR                
BTWN 03Z-09Z. BASED ON THE DARKENING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...             
THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE THAN THE WEAKER NAM. LATEST            
RUC AND 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT THE GFS. OVERLAP OF                  
MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
(CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 20MB) ON THE 290K SFC (AROUND                 
700MB) LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE PRESENT IN NE                 
ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED              
FARTHER S...BUT AIRMASS IS DRIER THERE. LATEST RUC IS VERY SIMILAR              
TO THE GFS WITH REGARD TO PROGRESSION OF QVECTOR                                
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU 06Z. FORCING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS            
TO SHIFT THRU NE MN BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UPPER MI/LAKE                
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...THE                     
WEAKENING FORCING SUGGESTS PCPN THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL TEND            
TO DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ON THE            
OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE            
MAY NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS MODELS INDICATE. SO...SITUATION IS                    
CERTAINLY STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS OVER NW LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. FCST WETBULB ZERO PROFILES                    
INDICATE ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS WILL BE SNOW.                                     
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE...CANADIAN/GFS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND               
850MB ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. SO THERE                
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.                  
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID               
50S. HOWEVER...SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER NEAR AND                   
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE            
SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND OVER THE NCNTRL MID/LATE AFTN AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER WINDS SLACKEN. FROM MUNISING EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT            
THRU THE DAY TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.                                
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
CONTINUITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS POOR CURRENTLY MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL             
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW ALONG CANADA/UNITED STATES BORDER. IN RECENT            
MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF SHORE OF BRITISH               
COLUMBIA WAS TO MOVE EAST AND ARRIVE OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES FRI              
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ALSO...THE WAVE WAS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT            
CAME EAST. NOW...A TREND IS EMERGING THAT RESULTS IN STRONGER WAVE              
NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL SAT. NAM MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS IDEA WHILE            
UKMET/GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE WEAKER. SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH                     
DIVERGENCE FM RRQ OF H3 OVR ONTARIO SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE MID             
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS FM GFS AND EVEN NAM ARE VERY DRY BLO H85            
SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS            
AND LIGHT WINDS SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AT THE SFC...RIDGE                   
DRIFTING OVER UPR LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUN. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH              
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS FEASIBLE THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE                
THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE WITH A GOOD PORTION OF CWA EXPERIENCING MIN            
TEMPS BLO FREEZING.                                                             
UPR LOW OVR SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO PLAINS SUN AND LIFTS TOWARD UPR               
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
HERE. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH TROUGH EJECTION AND WAS NOT PREFERRED             
DUE TO EVEN STRONGER KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELLING INTO WEST               
COAST AS EARLY AS SUN. LARGE AREA OF H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION...               
40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS ECLIPSING AN INCH (250-300 PCT OF NORMAL)              
ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PCPN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WARMING H85 TEMPS                
COMBINED WITH COOL H5 TEMPS AROUND -15C RESULT IN STEEPENING MID                
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT               
AND UPR TROUGH DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHICH IS             
WHEN BEST COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. 00Z GFS                
EVEN INDICATED SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD                 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MON EVENING. ECMWF MUCH QUICKER WITH FROPA.                
ALTHOUGH MOST PCPN WILL BE DONE BY MON NIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE              
IN GRIDS FOR TUE AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PER HPC AND              
H5 COLD POOL (-20C AT H5) ALSO ROTATES THROUGH. BRIEF RIDGING BOTH              
ALOFT AND AT SFC FOR WED...THEN DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVR            
MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS. SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY AT             
SFC...LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS                
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING             
E ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. SHARP DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. 00Z/12Z KINL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE                   
INCOMING DRY AIR NICELY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPED FROM 0.68 TO              
0.15 INCHES...AND 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-25C             
FROM 840MB TO 550MB. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE              
STRONG SHORTWAVE. WINDS WERE BEING AIDED BY 4-5MB/3HR PRES RISE MAX             
THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. CORE OF PRES RISES            
IS NOW OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI...SO STRONGEST WINDS             
HAVE JUST ABOUT PASSED THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS HEADING ESE THRU             
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ARE                 
ALREADY STREAMING E THRU ND INTO NRN MN.                                        
INHERITED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND ONLY REQUIRES MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME STRATOCU WILL BE AROUND               
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...MAINLY ACROSS THE N...ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB                
THERMAL TROF AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATOCU SHOULD BE               
GONE BY MID/LATE AFTN...BUT ALREADY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH             
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIPPING INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W. AS               
FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 800-850MB ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S ARE ON TRACK OVER THE W AND N. WNW               
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER                
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL. AS FOR                
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW             
MORE HRS WITH EXPECTATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS             
PRES RISE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MN                  
DRIFTS E.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
221 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES STILL STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING               
MARK OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AROUND HTL...WEST BRANCH. WITH               
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH...FELT COMPELLED TO EXTEND                    
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OUT A FEW MORE HOURS. WARM AIR GETTING CLOSER            
AS WELL AS SFC DEWPOINTS HEADING TOWARD FREEZING. SO HOPEFULLY WE               
CAN DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST.                                   
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 144 PM.                                                   
AN INTERESTING SITUATION AS THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HUNG UP ALONG               
THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A SIZABLE SFC                
BASED INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WHEN THE                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND              
SHEAR THAT THE KAPX RADAR IS PEGGING AROUND 35 KTS AROUND 1500 FT.              
THE MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD            
FRONT AND BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 50+KTS OVERNIGHT AROUND 1500             
TO 2000 FEET. OTHERWISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TIMED MORE                
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SO HAVE THE                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE            
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE SFC THE                 
FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM.                                                       
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS                   
MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.              
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING REVEALING ABOVE             
FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX TEMP OF +5C                
WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND             
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE                    
MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW PASSING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...                    
     UNTIL 5 PM...MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
144 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...AN INTERESTING SITUATION AS THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HUNG            
UP ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A                   
SIZABLE SFC BASED INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY             
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS CAUSING LOW                
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT THE KAPX RADAR IS PEGGING AROUND 35 KTS AROUND            
1500 FT. THE MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF            
THE COLD FRONT AND BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 50+KTS OVERNIGHT                
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. OTHERWISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE               
TIMED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SO HAVE              
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES            
ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE SFC THE             
FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM.                                                       
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS                   
MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.              
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING REVEALING ABOVE             
FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX TEMP OF +5C                
WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND             
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE                    
MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW PASSING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...UNTIL               
     2 PM...MIZ028>030-033>036-041-042.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1121 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO              
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT               
LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY. STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING                 
REVEALING ABOVE FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX            
TEMP OF +5C WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z                 
SOUNDINGS AND INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED                
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW               
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
TONIGHT...AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE REGION FOR THE            
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...REACHING 30 KNOTS AOA 2KFT BY                       
06-08Z...RESULTING IN WIND SHEAR...UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOK FOR CLOUDS                
THICKEN UP AROUND THE TVC AREA...DESCENDING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY              
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE BY 16Z IN TVC...AND ACROSS THE APN REGION BY 18-19Z...WHILE            
PLN LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT THIS POINT. THE WARM FRONT                
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOOKS TO            
GET HELD UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT                
MVFR CEILINGS AOA 2KFT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING....AND WILL BE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SMD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...UNTIL               
     2 PM...MIZ028>030-033>036-041-042.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
720 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN            
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH              
INTO SRN LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH              
TO A LINE FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND             
VSBY ARE NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO                
INCREASE OVR LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES                 
CLOSER. CURRENT SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND            
VSBY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND            
INTO THE WRN LAKES. WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS                
AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS              
MORNING...HOWEVER SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST    
ARND 35 KTS.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
TONIGHT...AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE REGION FOR THE            
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE                
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...REACHING 30 KNOTS AOA 2KFT BY                       
06-08Z...RESULTING IN WIND SHEAR...UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOK FOR CLOUDS                
THICKEN UP AROUND THE TVC AREA...DESCENDING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY              
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE BY 16Z IN TVC...AND ACROSS THE APN REGION BY 18-19Z...WHILE            
PLN LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT THIS POINT. THE WARM FRONT                
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOOKS TO            
GET HELD UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT                
MVFR CEILINGS AOA 2KFT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD                
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING....AND WILL BE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SMD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION UNDER AN                
UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CONTINUING OUR LONG ROUND OF DRY WEATHER.                
SHOULD GET SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS        
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS LIFTED OVER OUR THE SOUTHEAST                   
ZONES...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CURRENT               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER              
CHANGES TO THE ZONES./17/                                                       
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG           
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 FOR FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z FRIDAY./17/                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG            
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. VFR                  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z EACH MORNING. /22/            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: 22                                                                  
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
800 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM             
NEAR CONCORDIA NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF OMAHA. REPORTS FROM OAX                    
INDICATED NUMEROUS THREE QUARTER TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER HAIL REPORTS            
WITH THIS LINE. MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT         
THE THREAT OF HAIL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME                  
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                             
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY                      
DIMINISHING. LATEST RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE CAP OVER THE CWA               
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF INSOLATION...SBCAPE AND             
MUCAPE DROP TO 1000-1250 J/KG BETWEEN 09-12Z. SHEAR WILL REMAIN                 
MARGINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO              
REACH A KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON LINE BY 08Z. BY 12Z...ONLY SMALL               
HAIL IS EXPECTED.                                                               
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
331 PM...                                                                       
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PERIODS AS LARGE SCALE              
PATTERN CHANGE HAS PLACED THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION IN A                 
FAVORED AREA FOR REPEATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.                                 
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIRMASS             
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS APPROACHING            
60 DEGREES. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH                
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LEAVING THE             
AREA CAPPED ABOVE AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS CANOPY. PACIFIC COLD                     
FRONT/DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM NORFOLK TO KEARNEY NEBRASKA...AND PER              
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN PRECEDED BY AN INTERESTING                   
GRAVITY WAVE.                                                                   
SHORT MODEL PROGS COLLABORATE WELL WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SHOWING            
THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SE NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT                
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG THE             
ADVANCING FRONT AND JUST EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE LOW. ATTENDANT            
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING LINE              
SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES               
COUPLE WITH INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AFTER DARK. CERTAINLY               
STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE THE GREATER THREAT FOR            
SEVERE. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE THREAT WILL PERSIST             
AFTER DARK...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR             
CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY A             
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. INCREASED                  
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS PRIMARY FOCUSED IN AREAS NORTH             
AND WEST OF A KANSAS CITY TO TRENTON LINE.                                      
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG EAX/SGF CWA BORDER            
TOMORROW MORNING...AND WAFFLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES            
OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EJECTED FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW                     
ENTRENCHED IN THE BAJA. VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TYPE OF              
YEAR...BUT THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY RAISES A RED FLAG THAT CUMULATIVE RAINFALL                
TOTALS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING BY THE WEEKEND.                                   
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS THE                           
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS DEPENDING ON               
ITS DAY TO DAY PLACEMENT AND PROPAGATION. WHERE PERIODIC SUNSHINE IS            
ABLE TO MANIFEST BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...RAPID WARMING INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S-MID 70S COULD OCCUR GIVEN BALMY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES                
BENEATH WEAK 500MB RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. EQUALLY                    
POSSIBLE ARE HIGHS IN THE 50S WHERE MCS INDUCED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD             
DEBRIS KEEP READINGS NEARLY WET BULBED.                                         
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF               
THE CLOSED BAJA LOW INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF STILL              
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS              
ENSEMBLES HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION THE PAST            
SEVERAL RUNS. BEFORE THE MAIN BRUNT OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS                   
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE             
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS WHOSE WRN PERIPHERY SHOULD ALIGN ALONG THE LOWER            
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INVIGORATE LIFT              
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LEAD TO SEVERAL              
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS SFC AND             
LOW LEVEL FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF MISSOURI KEEPING            
FOCUSING MECHANISM FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT                 
PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT               
INTO THE AREA ASSISTED BY A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ...SO HAVE               
CONTINUED A 30-40 PERCENT POP RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE               
THE POSSIBILITY OF A POTENT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY. AS WITH                
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER               
WEST OF THE AREA SHEARED MORE SO OVER THE RIDGE AXIS.                           
REGARDLESS...AS THE WAVE EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASING              
H5/H7 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA                  
OVERTOP OF INCREASING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE LEADING TO HEIGHTENED              
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FORECAST AOA 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME                    
TIME...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
VECTORS AOA 50KT WITH THE REGION SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT              
FRONT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KT UPPER JET. OTHER THAN THE UPPER WAVE              
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PLACEMENT...MAIN UNCERTAINTY                   
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ANY MORNING CONVECTION CONTAMINATING THE                  
MODIFIED AIRMASS PROHIBITING FULL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.                    
AFTER THE UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES...A SFC FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN              
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER LARGE CHUNK OF                 
ENERGY ESTABLISHES A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. PREFER A               
SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THIS LONGWAVE             
FEATURE EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.                   
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THIS RESPECT WHICH KEEPS            
THE AREA MAINLY DRY...ALBEIT QUITE WARM FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST             
PERIOD.                                                                         
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION              
REACHING STJ AROUND 07Z. THE CONVECTION WILL LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS.            
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE              
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...POSSIBLY VERY               
BRIEFLY IFR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE KANSAS              
CITY AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OF THE AIRPORTS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VFR CEILINGS ARE             
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z AT STJ AND AFTER 12Z AT MKC AND MCI.  ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1253 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.                       
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA WITH A SLOW EASTWARD                      
PROGRESSION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY AFFECT NORTH ARKANSAS                 
TOWARDS 12Z AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND VFR ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH                  
WILL DROP TO 2500 FT WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5SM. THE UPPER                   
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OF               
THE AREA AROUND 18Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     56  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  20                              
CAMDEN AR         58  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
HARRISON AR       55  75  58  73 /  20  10  10  40                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  59  76 /  10  10  10  40                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  78  60  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
MONTICELLO AR     58  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  20                              
MOUNT IDA AR      57  78  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  75  56  75 /  20  10  10  40                              
NEWPORT AR        57  76  58  77 /  20  10  10  20                              
PINE BLUFF AR     59  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  77  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
SEARCY AR         58  77  59  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
STUTTGART AR      59  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...51                                                                   
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  56  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
CAMDEN AR         60  80  58  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
HARRISON AR       59  75  55  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MONTICELLO AR     59  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNT IDA AR      58  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  54  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
NEWPORT AR        59  77  57  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
PINE BLUFF AR     60  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  77  56  77 /  20  20  10  10                              
SEARCY AR         60  78  58  77 /  10  10  10  10                              
STUTTGART AR      60  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...38                                                
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
845 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU...OTHERWISE                  
SKIES ARE CLEAR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN BAJA LOW              
ARE JUST EAST OF KERN CO. SOME OF THESE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE                   
ACROSS THE KERN DESERT FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNITE SO PTCLDY THERE               
LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS THIS EVE RUNNING 6-8 DEGS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY               
AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED GOOD WARMING EXPECTED TOMORROW.                     
CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVE.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                          
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINGHAM/MOLINA/MV                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
232 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KERN COUNTY                 
DESERTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.                
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA             
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER              
TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.               
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
916 AM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWINGS EASTWARD THIS                
MORNING AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH CHANNELED FLOW OVER THE                   
DISTRICT. AT THE 250MB LEVEL...RUC ANALYSIS HAS A +100KT JET MAX                
EXITING THE AREA WITH A GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WINDS THIS                    
MORNING. WHILE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE                        
DIMINISHING THIS MID MORNING...WINDS EARLIER WERE ABLE TO REACH 30              
TO 40 MPH. AS THE JET MOVES FURTHER AWAY...WILL SEE MOUNTAIN WINDS              
DECREASE FURTHER AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CALIFORNIA.                  
FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OFF-SHORE WHICH WILL               
SUPPORT THE EXPECTED WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE                 
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT...WILL SEE GENERAL CLEARING                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUAL               
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST ALONG             
THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS                
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 17Z.                   
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE              
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THIS MORNING.                         
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                            
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
437 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...                  
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAD            
A MATURING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CA BAJA WITH AN EXPANDED SYNOPTIC                
SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE NORTH-EAST QUADRANTS ACROSS AZ/WRN            
NM. SOME OF THE MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING INTO                  
EXTREME SWRN CO. THERE WAS A ROGUE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER E            
CNTRL NM MOVING NWD...BUT IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS TO MOVES AWAY            
FROM ITS LOW LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT. ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT TSRA WAS ACROSS SRN NM JUST NORTH OF THE                
SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS NEW MINI-MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY               
FALL APART ONCE IT GETS INTO NERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING.                        
BASICALLY...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO OUR WRN CWFA/CONTDVD              
AND IN EXTREME SERN CO. TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD WITH                   
40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS SERN CO AND 20S/30S IN THE MOUNTAINS/ HIGH                 
VALLEYS.                                                                        
TODAY...WE WILL BE WAITING FOR THE OLD CLOSED LOW TO EJECT LATER                
TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH "SIGNIFICANT" WEATHER UNTIL LATER            
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.              
ACROSS SERN CO...PRECIP MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE                    
GROUND...INITIALLY...GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTING              
VIRGA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION SHAFTS...IF            
THEY FORM...MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON               
ACROSS SERN CO. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT MSL              
LATER TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY DOABLE AND BLENDED                
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.                                                       
TONIGHT...06Z/23 WRF IS INTERESTING COMPARED TO THE 00Z/23 RUN. THE             
00Z/23 RUN HAD THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION                     
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET WHILE WE WAIT FOR THE LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL            
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRECIPITATION TO GENERATE TOWARDS SAT AM.                 
WELL...NOW IT "BLOWS" UP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SANGRE DE                  
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z/23 DID NOT "BLOW UP"            
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.  ONE CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION ZONE                  
DEVELOPING MAY BE ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX/WRN OK INTO EXTREME SERN CO              
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW LIFTS N-NEWD OUT OF AZ/WRN                  
NM...RELATIVELY DEEP SLY FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE PER H7               
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS/MAG. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR              
MASS TO GENERATE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JUST S OF EXTREME               
SERN CO AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WRF                    
SUGGESTING A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM JUST AHEAD OF THE               
CLOSED LOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIGHT SEE SOME MODERATE TO               
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO AND SWD GIVEN GEORGE/S K-INDICES              
OF 35-40C AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 5 G/KG AND MORE                    
IMPORTANTLY ANY PRECIPITATION TRAINING GIVEN A DEEP SLY FLOW. THE               
GREATER THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE S-SE OF EXTREME              
SERN CO...BUT IT MIGHT MOVE INTO BACA COUNTY IF CELLS CAN HOLD                  
TOGETHER. INCREASED POPS ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO TO LIKELY FOR LATER             
TONIGHT. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FT MSL. METZE               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS LIFTING CLOSED LOW FROM             
CENTRAL NM AND THE 4 CORNERS REGION THROUGH CENTRAL CO...AND INTO NE            
CO/SW NE BY 00Z SUNDAY.  THIS BRINGS FCST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG              
QG FORCING BY SAT MORNING...SPREADING NORTHWARD QUICKLY DURING THE              
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.  ATMOS BECOMES CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AS                
COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION BY AFTN...SO SHOULD SEE SOME              
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK FAIRLY WARM              
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 9KFT...DROPPING             
TO 8KFT BY LATE AFTN. BEST LIFT ACCORDING TO 00Z RUNS WILL AFFECT CEN           
CO UNDER DEFORMATION BAND AND MID LEVEL TROWAL. HOWEVER...WITH                  
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS JUST              
ABOUT ANY OF THE MTS. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS/ADJACENT INTERSTATE              
25 CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMPING UP IN THE MID TO                  
LATE MORNING AS H7 WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME EASTERLY AS H7 CLOSED LOW               
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FAR EASTERN PLAINS QUICKLY BECOME DRY SLOTTED BY               
MID/LATE MORNING THOUGH AS 90 KT UPPER JET CORE LIFTS NORTH INTO                
SE CO...SO COULD SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS LATE SAT                             
MORNING...BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTN.                
NAM/GFS HAVE THE FRONT POSITIONED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID                
AFTN...WITH AROUND 800 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.                
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW                   
QUICKLY MIXES OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT                       
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR           
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...HOWEVER              
LATEST RUNS APPEAR TO KEEP BEST SVR POTENTIAL JUST TO THE EAST AND              
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
OF COURSE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE                     
MOUNTAINS. NAM PAINTS A GENEROUS 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR SAT ACROSS              
ALL BUT THE SRN SANGRES (IN PROXIMITY OF DRY SLOT)...WITH AN                    
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SAT NIGHT.               
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                   
CEN/SW MTS UNDER DEFORMATION BAND ON SAT...WITH UP TO AN                        
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SAT NIGHT. GFS              
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE...BUT WOULDNT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MTN                   
AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN CONVECTIVE                  
POTENTIAL. ALL IN ALL...STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL ADVISORY                   
EVENT. DEPENDING ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF DRY SLOT...PIKES PEAK AND                
THE WET MTS COULD ALSO SEE LOW END ADVISORY NUMBERS...THOUGH                    
BREVITY OF UPSLOPE MAY KEEP THEM JUST SHY. STILL SOME                           
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE POSITION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND UPPER                
LOW...WHICH COULD MAKE/BREAK THE SNOW AMOUNT FCST. SO WILL NOT                  
HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS JUST YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT                 
ANOTHER SET OF RUNS.                                                            
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN WITH SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY                  
WINDING DOWN.  TEMPS REBOUND NICELY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT                  
WEEK...THEN GFS BRINGS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS NRN CO/WY TUES                 
NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON                
TUES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION            
FOR THE MTS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR TUES                       
NIGHT/EARLY WED.  THIS COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS            
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH POTENTIAL ON FOR MID WEEK.  NO CHANGES            
MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUES. -KT                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
328 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST OUR N WITH PREVAILING LOW                  
LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND              
RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE MID-UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL GOMEX NEWD INTO              
THE SE STATES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER           
SE GA SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH ALMA OCCASIONAL REPORTING                 
VIS BELOW 1SM. EXPECT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER ENTIRE CWA NEXT                 
FEW HOURS WITH THE DENSE FOG MAINLY CONFINED IN INTERIOR SE GA.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION                  
WITH A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PINCHING OFF OVER SRN AL AND GA SAT-SUN.                
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE A DEFINITE WARMING TREND FOR                   
MOST AREAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED              
THROUGH EARLY MORNING OVER SE GA WITH PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER AREAS.              
FOR MAX TEMPS PREFERRED A BLEND BUT MOSTLY LIKED THE MAV GUIDANCE               
AS MET VERIFYING A BIT TOO COOL. MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND                    
SECTIONS. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY ELY 10-15 MPH                
WINDS BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS IN AFTERNOON BUT LOWER THAN                      
PREVIOUS DAYS. TONIGHT...STRONGER HIGH PRES ALOFT WITH WEAKER                   
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SPELLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AREAS OF FOG                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR                
SKIES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. SAT...MORNING FOG DISSIPATES                 
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WITH                  
MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY                   
CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. LOWS CONTINUE TO               
BE MOSTLY MID 50S. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES WITH WARM                   
TEMPS FROM MID 80S TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. WILL BE SEEING A                         
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDE DOWN THE E COAST THROUGH CAROLINAS                   
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT-THU. MODEL GUIDANCE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S              
RUN SHOWING BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM AND              
GFS SHOWING FRONT MOVING INTO SE GA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON WITH                    
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. FRONT PUSHES                     
THROUGH ALL THE CWA WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON NE FLOW THANKS TO                
1033 MB HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC. PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE INCREASED                
MON WITH BREEZY CONDS DEVELOPING OVER ERN ZONES. HAVE MOVED UP                  
POPS TO MON AT 20% FOR PORTIONS OF SE GA AND NE FL AS ASSOCD                    
MOISTURE WITH FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SWD              
TUE-THU WITH NO MENTION OF POPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS                      
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILL SEE TEMPO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND                
12Z DUE MAINLY TO VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR. EAST WINDS INCREASE                      
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN...WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS WILL               
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY                   
FOR SEAS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND DROP ON SUNDAY. A STRONG BACK               
DOOR FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST MONDAY AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SCA                
CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH`S AOB 35% POSSIBLE TODAY AND SAT               
AFTN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN NE FL. OTHERWISE NO                    
MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE              
TO 15 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY WHEN                   
A BACK DOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  83  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SSI  74  58  76  57 /   0   0   0  10                                           
JAX  79  55  81  55 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SGJ  74  59  75  60 /  10  10   0  10                                           
GNV  83  53  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
OCF  83  55  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY            
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                   
     OFFSHORE.                                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-                 
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
940 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /TONIGHT/...                                                 
PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...DEPICTING CLOUDS/SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARD            
SHORE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED EAST OF NEW               
ENGLAND...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO GA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 18Z             
NAM12/WRF AND 0Z RUC40 SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH                
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY YET RAISE POPS IF NEEDED...ESP ACROSS SC              
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD              
COVER SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF PATCHY FOG.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RECENT REPORTS FROM AREA BUOYS AND FROM THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH             
PILOT BOATS SUGGEST THAT SEAS ARE BUILDING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND              
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT 6 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY SLIP INTO                   
NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...MOVED UP START TIME OF ONGOING               
SCAS FOR SC/GA NEARSHORE WATERS FROM NOON THU TO 2 AM THU.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z-24Z/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER                   
8Z...WHEN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AT KCHS...WHILE               
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK.               
THEN...AFTER 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER              
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TAFS INDICATE SHOWERS IN THE                
VICINITY UNTIL 9Z...WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL               
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL               
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY. THE                    
INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SWELL                   
SUBSIDES SATURDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF...                                                  
GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING E SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL               
COMPONENT OF TIDES...STILL CLOSE TO THE MARCH 19 NEW MOON...WILL                
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH               
TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WILL NEED TO ASSESS               
NEED FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THU...AS WAVES IN SURF ZONE COULD BE              
CLOSE TO 5 FT. THIS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AT             
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY THU AND THU NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY             
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY             
     FOR AMZ374.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPR                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
130 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST            
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEST             
WIND IN ILLINOIS AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. WITH THIS WIND PATTERN                
ALOFT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A HIGH               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.              
THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL              
ADD THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FROM 11 TO 12 UTC. THIS IS THE TIME OF                 
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT              
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT A                  
SOUTHEAST WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WE USED THE NAM AND A LOCALLY            
RUN WRF MODEL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1100 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
650 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
330 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSPPI RIVER WITH SPC             
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW               
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL               
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1254 AM CDT                                                                     
VIGOROUS S/WV TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST              
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI            
TO ERN IA AT 05Z. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA...AND 0445Z ACARS SOUNDING             
OUT OF KRFD INDICATE 55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IN 930-850 HPA LAYER               
AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL TROF/FRONT. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP LAPSE              
RATES IN THIS LAYER...THOUGH A BIT OF A CAP NOTED AROUND 670 MB.                
ISOLATED WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE            
IN THIS REGION OF MOIST/WAA ACROSS FAR NRN IL...THOUGH APPEARS THEY             
ARE FIGHTING CAP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT COOLING OF MID/UPR LVLS             
WITH APPROACH OF S/WV EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED                
CAPE INCREASING TO 550-650 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED 875-900 HPA. THIS             
ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD BE                 
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TRW AS BOUNDARY ADVANCES ACROSS               
FCST IL. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION IN            
SWRN WI AND SRN IA...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS              
ERN IA. GIVEN STRONG FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY SEE SOME              
GUSTS IN 40 KT RANGE WITH TSTMS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN             
MARGINAL CAPE PROFILES. THUS WILL MAINTAIN TS IN TERMINALS THIS                 
MORNING...MAINLY DURG 09-13Z PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES            
THRU. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH                
STRONG LLVL DRYING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD DECREASE CLOUDS FAIRLY                   
RAPIDLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.           
STRONG SW LLVL WIND FIELD IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT            
RESULTING IN GUSTY 20-30 KT WINDS ATTM. WILL SEE GRADIENT DECREASE              
JUST A BIT WITHIN TROF AXIS TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN WSHFT TO NWLY                 
DIRECTION. SOME GUSTINESS AS SFC PRES RISE BUILDS IN EARLY                      
MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTN AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS               
IN. DVLPMNT OF NE WINDS OFF LAKE A GOOD PROBABILITY VERY LATE                   
AFTN/EARLY EVE AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE. NEXT S/WV AND ELEVATED               
PCPN THREAT BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT WITH NEXT FCST                    
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
745 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...WARM SECTOR AIR OVER TAF ROUTES WITH SCT             
AC AND CI OVR INDIANA WHILE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR WRM FNT                   
ACRS SRN GRTLKS. PATCHY MID CLOUD EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT            
MEANS VFR TO CONTINUE TIL DAYBREAK WHILE GUSTY WINDS AT SUNSET TODAY            
BECOME STEADY OVRNGT. MODELS TIMING OF CDFNT THU FAIRLY SIMILAR AND             
APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO AND DURING FROPA SO HAVE             
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST TIL THEN. EXPECT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA            
AND CB DURING CDFNT PASSAGE AND TREND TO MVFR CIGS OVC020 IN COLD               
AIR BEHIND FNT. INCREASED STABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO END OF TSHRA                 
SHORTLY AFT FROPA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...TUCEK                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
410 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                     
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...KOCH                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
100 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SPLIT UPPR FLOW DVLPG ACRS THE COUNTRY OVR THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF DAYS. WK DISTURBANCES WL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN                   
PLAINS...WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM SYS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE              
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES EWD INTO THE UPPR GRTLKS ON THURS. THIS SYS WL               
BRING A CDFNT INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY THURS AFT/NIGHT. MODELS IN                 
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN DETAILS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON            
POPS.                                                                           
LIFT AHEAD OF WK SHORT WV TROF OVR WRN IL CAUSING SHWRS TO BREAK OUT            
ACRS THE AREA. 21/00Z UA INDICATES NOSE OF LLJ POINTED MORE TOWARDS             
SRN LI MI...SO WOULD XPCT THE BULK OF THE HVR PCPN TO STAY NW OF THE            
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORN. BASED ON MODEL DATA...WV SHOULD PUSH OFF            
TO THE NE BY SUNRISE...SO PCPN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME.             
H20 LOOP LOOKS PRETTY MESSY IN THE SRN STREAM...WITH INDICATIONS OF             
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PSBLY OVR NEBRASKA AND ERN OK. CONSIDERING              
ABV AND THE FACT THAT LLJ WL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THRU                    
TONIGHT...DECIDED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN THE FCST THRU TONIGHT.                   
APPEARS CDFNT WL BE MOVG INTO THE NWRN ZONES BY THURS AFT. GOOD                 
INFLOW INTO THE FNT WITH 850MB WNDS PROGGED ARND 40KTS. THIS                    
SUGGESTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD DVLP INVOF FNT. WL GO WITH HI            
POPS BY THURS AFT AS A RESULT.                                                  
MODELS INDICATE FNT MAY STALL OUT NEARBY TOWARDS THE END OF THE                 
WEEK. 850MB FLOW INTO THE FNT REMAINS RATHER HEALTHY AS                         
WELL...SUGGESTING HVY RAINFALL TOTALS PSBL LT IN THE WEEK IF MODEL              
SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.                                                         
BASED ON PROGGED LO LVL THICKNESSES...NGM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK               
REASONABLE AT THIS PT...SO WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM THEM.                         
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...JAS                                                                    
AVIATION...KOCH                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
309 PM CST WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE NW FOURTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.                
TSRA MOVED INTO THE WRN COUNTIES AHEAD OF H5 S/W MVNG THROUGH                   
CENTRAL IA...THEN REFORMED INTO AN E/W LINE ALONG INSTABILITY                   
GRADIENT OVER SE IA.  SO FAR JUST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORTS             
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS.  COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE WRN MN            
THROUGH ERN NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT            
NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO FAR NOT MUCH IN            
THE WAY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITH SURFACE FRONT WITH STRONG CAP              
NOTED ON KOAX 18Z SOUNDING...SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...                                           
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CURRENT             
WATCH AND ANTICIPATE CANCELLING THE SEVERE WATCH EARLY FOR MOST OF              
THE WATCH AREA. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CWA LATE THIS                
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES THE                 
NCNTRL STATES.  LOOKING AT A RUC FCST NR KOMA FOR THIS                          
AFTERNOON...IT SHOWS THE STRONG CAP DISSIPATING BY 00Z...SO EXPECT              
CONVECTION TO FORM IN WRN IA BY EARLY EVENING ON THE FRONT AND REACH            
THE NWRN CWA AROUND 03Z ...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE SERN CWA BTWN 09Z            
AND 12Z. FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL MO/IL THURSDAY            
AFTN/EVE.  HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE PREV FCST FOR               
TONIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WITH SOME MODEST CAPE AROUND                    
1000J/KG PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER ERN IA THROUGH THE EVENING.  BELIEVE            
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL               
THREAT IN ANY ONE AREA.  PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WILL BE              
THE SRN MOST COUNTIES WAS THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED            
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                
THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK               
NORTH INTO NRN MO/CNTRAL IL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG/MOIST SLWY LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY...AND FUELING STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE.                  
REPEAT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ORIENTED PARALLEL             
TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND A SWLY LLJ POINTED AT NW MO/SW IA MOST OF             
THE NIGHT.  MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY HANDLING THE                
WARM FRONT. THE GFS PULLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH WELL INTO IA WHILE THE             
NAM/UKMET KEEP SOUTH AS THEY BRING S/W ENERGY THROUGH NRN STREAM.               
SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER...HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO THE SRN              
COUNTIES.  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS              
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SRN STREAM CUT OFF                         
LOW...LIFTING IT NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY.                  
BASED ON THIS HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS HIER ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  LONG RANGE                  
MODELS THEN DEVELOP DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR               
MID WEEK.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FCST DRY TO MODELS ESTABLISH SOME RUN             
TO RUN CONTINUITY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> ia                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
924 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY              
FOR THE KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COUNTIES UNTIL 11 AM MDT/                 
NOON CDT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TO TAKE A LITTLE                  
LONGER TO BREAK WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE                 
OBSERVATIONS STILL AT A QUARTER OF A MILE REPORTED AT SOME                      
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GOODLAND...COLBY AND MCCOOK. EXPECT FOG TO                  
LIFT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.                  
WILL BE WATCHING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSELY WHICH MAY BE                   
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                                        
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMMERS                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1038 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT HAD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF               
HIGHWAY 50 AT MID-MORNING...WITH THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTING              
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH              
OF EARLY MORNING GRID PACKAGE...SO HAVE REFLECTED THE CHANGES IN                
THE LATEST GRID/FORECAST UPDATE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR                  
THIS AFTERNOON...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON DIURNAL HEATING (IE. CLOUD                
TRENDS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE SOME               
HOLES INTO MIDDAY...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO ENCROACH SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
BOUNDARY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL ML                 
CAPES OF AROUND 1800 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO LITTLE CHANGE                
TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AND FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING LATE THIS                    
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TSRA CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND AND ALSO TEMPS.                                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN KS AT              
THIS TIME. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT               
HELPING TO GET ELEVATED STORMS GOING.  QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR                
SOUTH /IF AT ALL/  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER            
THIS MORNING. SOME PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO            
PREFER THE NAM-WRF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT GENERALLY ALONG AN EMP-HUT             
LINE BEFORE IT STALL.  WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OUT             
IS THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ECHOES. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO              
BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN TSRA CHANCE WILL BE THIS              
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND                      
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K LAYER WILL STEEPEN LAPSE                 
RATES ENOUGH FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS            
MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT            
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR               
AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER AREAS WITH                 
SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTH                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BUT DAY SHIFT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BETTER             
DEFINE THIS ONCE BOUNDARY DECIDES TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS.                
WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS IN SOUTHERN KS AS BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF            
THIS AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.                         
TONIGHT:                                                                        
BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH                
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SO EXPECT             
SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY BUT PROBABLY DIMINISHING                  
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LIFT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME TRANING STORMS IN              
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SO FLOODING THREAT WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO              
BE WATCHED.                                                                     
FRI-FRI NIGHT:                                                                  
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION             
FOR FRI.  MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL                  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS             
AS ANY WEAK IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT               
TSRA CHANCE TO BE WIDESPREAD.                                                   
BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN               
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL STILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW              
AS PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IN LATER RUNS WILL BETTER DEFINE                   
HIGHEST POP AREAS.                                                              
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY REMAINS               
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ON SAT FOR BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AGAIN             
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN AND MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE              
AREA UNTIL SUN EVENING. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY            
RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
SEVERE THREAT ON SAT AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAVORABLE BUT INSTABILITY             
LOOKS MODEST.                                                                   
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                               
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS             
FINALLY MOVE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY             
WILL BE A DAY TO DRY OUT WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LAYERS. A                 
RATHER RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED FOR ANOTHER              
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION.                                                   
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    74  59  72  58 /  50  60  40  40                                
HUTCHINSON      70  58  72  57 /  40  50  40  40                                
NEWTON          71  58  71  57 /  50  60  40  40                                
ELDORADO        73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  60  73  59 /  60  60  40  40                                
RUSSELL         61  51  71  53 /  20  30  40  40                                
GREAT BEND      64  53  71  55 /  30  40  40  40                                
SALINA          63  52  69  54 /  30  50  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       67  56  71  56 /  40  50  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     76  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
CHANUTE         74  60  72  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
IOLA            73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-083-092>096-                  
098>100.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
440 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.                                                
INTERESTING SET UP TODAY WITH SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD                   
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD                 
ELEVATED LIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC BNDRY BY MIDDAY ALONG OR              
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OPTIMUM ELEVATED LIFT WITH FAIRLY GOOD             
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN            
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS. NO             
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED YET...BUT BEARS WATCHING IN 12Z RUN. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES EXCEEDINGLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RUNNING NEARLY            
250% OF NORMAL! THIS HIGH WATER CONTENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND              
AND DOES NOT REALLY GET MODIFIED TO ANY GREAT EXTENT UNTIL UPPER                
SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH               
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                                        
SETUP FOR SEVERE TODAY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                      
WARMFRONT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION             
TO FRONTAL AREA OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARMER AND THE                  
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE EVEN GREATER. SHEAR SEEMS TO BE                 
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY AS WELL.                                  
TEMPERATURES IN TURN A REAL CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TO              
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED NAM CLOSELY WITH IT`S SFC                 
TEMPERATURE FCST. THUS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE              
LOWER 70S SOUTH.                                                                
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WAITING             
FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF MEAN WESTERN TROF POSITION. THIS              
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER                  
CHANCE APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM                 
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.                                                
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST NOT CHANGED MUCH AS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO              
ADD MUCH DETAIL OR FIND REASONS TO MAKE CHANGES IN SUCH AN UNSETTLED            
PATTERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
358 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HELPED PUSH A                   
COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF SW KS. THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM STRETCHED                
FROM NORTH OF HUGOTON TO HUTCHINSON. SFC TEMPS WERE VERY BALMY                  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT(71 AT BUFFALO,OK AND 65 AT LIBERAL). THE SFC                 
DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AN                          
UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. 500MB                    
TEMPS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS WERE                         
FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO. IN FACT THE NAM HAS 500MB TEMPS                     
AROUND -13C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO                 
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60SF ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS. A LARGE AREA                
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING NE INTO NM AND WEST TX.                   
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS TODAY...THE                    
LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF                      
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE NAM/GFS AND SOME OF THE RUC                 
MEMBERS SURGE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY TO A GCK TO HAYS                
LINE. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RUC13 SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THIS               
MODEL KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALL DAY. WITH BROKEN MID                
TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW... TEMPS WILL STAY IN                 
THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OK STATE LINE               
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.                                                      
I EXPECT THE SFC DRYLINE TO STRETCH FROM DALHART TO CARLSBAD,NM                 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT CLOSE TO                
DALHART. FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING...SOME ELEVATED HEATING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...      
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE                    
INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LOCAL POOLING                 
OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SFC BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG             
FROM P28 TO ENGLEWOOD. AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA...A FEW OF                 
THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                       
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR                   
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BUT AS WE HAVE                  
SEEN IN THE RECENT PAST...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPES                  
AROUND 1000 J/KG CAN BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO                
TONIGHT. BUT THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE                        
BY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS                      
ON SATURDAY. SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY               
SAKE AND SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.                                       
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING EXTENDED.  BOTH THE UKMET AND             
GFS BRING AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM UP FROM SOUTHERN BAHA CALIFORNIA TO               
WESTERN KANSAS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE WE HAVE 40               
POPS GOING NOW.  THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEARS OUT.  TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND IN              
LINE WITH SURROUNDING WFO GRIDS.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM...PERHAPS            
WITH 80S SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA.  LEFT TUES MAX T`S ALONE FOR NOW...AS            
OUR SW HAS MID 70S GOING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...STRATUS WILL LIKELY             
FORM AT DDC AND GCK IN THE 012 TO 015 FEET RANGE BY 11Z THIS                    
MORNING.  DO NOT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LINGER MUCH BEYOND 15-16Z.               
ALSO...FOG WITH VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM RANGE WILL FORM AT DDC...GCK AND             
HYS AND LAST THROUGH 15Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  68  53  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
GCK  64  45  72  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
EHA  71  47  71  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
LBL  73  51  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
HYS  61  48  72  55 /  20  20  20  20                                           
P28  76  59  70  61 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN24/12                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CUT OFF LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE             
UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.             
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON FINER DETAILS. EVEN AS                
EARLY AS TODAY...NAM BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER               
THE AREA/WHEREAS GFS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANYTHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
INCONCLUSIVE...SINCE JUST SEE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DEEP                  
TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LITTLE TO GO ON WILL PLAY            
THE PERCENTAGES AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT RELIABLE RUC CEILING            
FORECAST SHOWS 2KFT BROKEN DECK OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH            
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS A RESULT.              
FRIDAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...THOUGH MODELS SWITCH PLACES WITH              
GFS WET AND NAM DRY. IT DOES APPEAR THE AREA WILL COME UNDER                    
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH DEVELOPS FRIDAY                    
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE MIDWEST. SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE             
SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA. NONETHELESS...ISC CONSTRAINTS WILL                 
DICTATE LOW CHANCE POPS. THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MAIN LOW               
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH LENDS LITTLE TO             
NO CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGES               
GIVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH              
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
258 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF/WHEN CONVECTION WILL                     
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR                 
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS              
AND BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG THE DRYLINE               
WERE BETWEEN 82-86F. ALSO NOTICING CAPES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT WERE AT 15-2K J/KG WITH IMPROVING MOIST CONV. THE RUC40 ALSO              
WAS FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE                   
TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED LATE TODAY SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS GO                
UP QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE                  
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED              
AS WE APPROACH 4 PM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/CU DEVELOPMENT.                
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AS A NORTHERN                
BRANCH S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                   
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AND WEAK LIFT OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY               
RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                            
THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDANT ON                
WHERE OUR FRONT WILL BE. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUR SURFACE FRONT               
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.                 
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST SYSTEM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT, MOISTURE AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL                 
THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AND TAPER POPS OFF                   
FURTHER NW AND HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.              
BY FRIDAY THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SW KS.                     
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW                  
EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE                
EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                  
HIGHS FRIDAY.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE THIS MORNING THE                           
GFS/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE                  
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING                
IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP SET THE SCENCE FOR                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE                         
REGION...MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG                 
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. WITH UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE                
OUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MUCH DRIER             
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK. DECIDED TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE                
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THEN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE                   
RETURNING TO OUR PART OF THE WORLD. HOWEVER JUST TOO EARLY TO SEE               
IF THIS WILL BECOME A MID WEEK MOISTURE PRODUCER.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA.              
BETWEEN 09-12Z LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS OF 5SM BR                 
AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE                  
CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BETWEEN 09-15Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  49  63  48  68 /  20  20  20   0                                           
GCK  45  64  46  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
EHA  47  66  51  72 /  10  10  10   0                                           
LBL  50  68  51  72 /  10  20  20   0                                           
HYS  47  57  47  66 /  30  10  10   0                                           
P28  56  66  54  68 /  30  50  50   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/31                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
242 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF/WHEN CONVECTION WILL                     
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR                 
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS              
AND BASED ON NAM SOUNDINGS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG THE DRYLINE               
WERE BETWEEN 82-86F. ALSO NOTICING CAPES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT WERE AT 15-2K J/KG WITH IMPROVING MOIST CONV. THE RUC40 ALSO              
WAS FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35KTS. IF THE CONVECTIVE                   
TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED LATE TODAY SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS GO                
UP QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE                  
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED              
AS WE APPROACH 4 PM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/CU DEVELOPMENT.                
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AS A NORTHERN                 
BRANCH S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER DYNAMIC FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                    
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE               
FRONT AND WEAK LIFT OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST AM UNABLE TO COMPLETELY               
RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING              
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                            
THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDANT ON                
WHERE OUR FRONT WILL BE. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUR SURFACE FRONT               
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.                 
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST SYSTEM GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT, MOISTURE AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL                 
THEREFORE KEEP HIGH CHC POPS IN OUR SE CWA AND TAPER POPS OFF                   
FURTHER NW AND HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT.              
BY FRIDAY THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SW KS.                     
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW                  
EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE                
EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND                  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR                  
HIGHS FRIDAY.                                                                   
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE                     
GFS/ECMWF/NAM TO BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE            
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING                
IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP SET THE SCENCE FOR                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE                         
REGION...MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE     
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO                
KICK OFF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE OUT THE                   
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                               
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MUCH DRIER             
AIR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF               
THE WEEK. DECIDED TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE FIRST             
PART OF THE WEEK. THEN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE RETURNING TO            
OUR PART OF THE WORLD. HOWEVER JUST TOO EARLY TO SEE IF THIS WILL               
BECOME A MID WEEK MOISTURE PRODUCER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA.              
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGRY CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP               
BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 09-12Z LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED                
WITH VSBYS OF 5SM BR AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST SO                 
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BETWEEN                  
09-15Z. &&                                                                      
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  49  63  48  68 /  20  20  20   0                                           
GCK  45  64  46  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
EHA  47  66  51  72 /  10  10  10   0                                           
LBL  50  68  51  72 /  10  20  20   0                                           
HYS  47  57  47  66 /  30  10  10   0                                           
P28  56  66  54  68 /  30  50  50   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/31                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR                
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AT SDF AND LEX. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE             
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION                  
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AT BWG             
OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS DECENT SOUTHERLY               
WINDS AT 1500FT (25KT) WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.             
ALSO NOTED THAT A 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PRESENT EVEN            
NOW WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBS.                                                
SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED            
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS LEX AND SDF. CEILINGS WILL STAY             
VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXCEPT UNDERNEATH ANY LOCAL SHOWERS. JSD                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFY CNVCTN AT THIS           
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
902 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. ADDED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE POP FOR SW INDIANA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF               
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER                 
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO/EASTERN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS            
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS KEEP QUASI                     
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE                 
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI              
OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE A SE MOVEMENT TO ANY              
ORGANIZED MCS THAT DEVELOPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH THE                 
ENTIRE PERIOD...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT.                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK DOWN TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS                 
RIGHT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE AREA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE                
WEAKENING AND FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE AIRMASS                 
THOROUGHLY WORKED OVER...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE             
AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO HAVE MUCH POP IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.             
WILL HOWEVER...INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT            
TO FIT IN TO SOME DEGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.                                        
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL             
DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE              
REGION. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST              
THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE GFS BRINGS INTO OUR WEST JUST BEFORE 12Z.                 
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN RAMP UP TO               
50-60 POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR             
A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IF IT IS AS FOCUSED AS TODAYS                      
CONVECTION HAS BEEN...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET WET. THEREFORE WILL NOT            
GO HIGHER THAN 60S FOR NOW.  THOSE 60S WILL BE IN THE NORTH WHERE               
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF. THE NAM IS NOT SURE            
ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING WET.                                           
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST...SO            
WILL LEAVE A 20-30 POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE               
FRONT RE-LOCATES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE FOCUS               
FOR CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO REGENERATE            
CONVECTION ALL OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS THE LONE MODEL             
THAT DOES NOT BUILD A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL              
THEREFORE IGNORE ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW.                                          
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE GLORIOUS WITH TEMPS PUSHING 80 EACH                 
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                  
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVEN THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO DRAG SOME                 
REMNANT OF THE SW U.S. CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY              
OR TUESDAY. WILL THROW IN 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST              
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK             
DRY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA ON             
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE                  
ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN            
THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOMORROW WHERE THE                  
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CERTAIN               
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
953 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO                   
ACROSS PORTIONS OR THE NORTHERN AREA AROUND SDF AND LEX...NOT SO                
MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                                      
-SCHOTT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                               
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                              
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
144 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS MORNING. RADAR               
HOWEVER CURRENTLY SHOWS THESE HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME ADDITIONAL                  
SHOWERS ATM ARE JUST NORTH OF OUR NW COUNTIES MOVING W TO EAST JUST             
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. RUC AND WRF-NAM BOTH KEEP PRECIP OUT OF                  
FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS              
ARE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON..IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS IS             
CONFINED PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE SPINE OF              
THE APPALACHIANS. BELIEVE THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT             
POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE ENTIRE PERIOD. IF RUC/NAM FORECAST DOES PAN            
OUT...WE`LL ADDRESS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.                         
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH                
FORECAST GRIDS.                                                                 
UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...POPS...AND MORNING            
WORDING. NEAR TERM WINDS WERE REFRESHED USING RUC GUIDANCE.                     
...REMAINDER OF EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING SIMILAR DIFFERENCES ALOFT AS THEY WERE LAST           
NIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A CLOSING LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH A WAVE               
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN FOR EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE THE              
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS...THE NAM IS A TAD FASTER               
AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. AS FOR THE DEVELOPING BAJA LOW THE GFS               
REMAINS FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM           
WAVE PASSING AND THE BAJA LOW OPENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK             
WEEK...KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF AWASH IN FAST MOVING MINOR WAVES.              
THESE WILL BE RUNNING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE ZONAL                
FLOW FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE. DESPITE THE            
NAM HAVING MORE SUPPORT WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM               
WAVE EARLY ON...THE GFS IS FAVORED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON GIVEN             
ITS APPARENT BETTER HANDLING OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.             
FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FRONTAL POSITION              
...BUT FOLLOWED THE NAM/S EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL                
WAVES THAT PASS OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATTER               
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                          
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BURNING OFF AND                
MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND ONLY             
AN SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER. HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE               
FORECAST FOR TODAY GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                 
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...             
AND ONLY PARTIAL CLOUDINESS...RESULTING IN RADIATIONAL FOG. A WAVE              
SEEN IN THE GFS THAT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOO            
FAR AWAY TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEXT...A COLD FRONT                
FROM THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SAG TOWARD KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY             
BEFORE STRETCHING OUT AND BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN                 
HALF OF THE STATE LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED             
AND PERSISTENT PERIOD OF DECENT POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS IMPULSES MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...           
SPURNED ALONG BY THE MINOR UPPER WAVES SPINNING OUT OF THE OPENING              
SOUTHWESTERN LOW.                                                               
WITH THE TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TODAY AND              
THURSDAY...THOUGH HELD THE DIURNAL RISE BACK A BIT THIS MORNING UNTIL           
THE FOG BURNS OFF. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED MORE OF A BLEND. AT              
NIGHT...THE NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR SO WENT WITH A BLEND...ALONG WITH              
SOME SITE SPECIFIC TWEAKING. THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET               
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/                                         
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE                       
WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF            
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITHIN THE               
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN FEATURES OF              
INFLUENCE WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH AN                 
EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.                      
ECMWF WASHES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OUT TO THE SOUTH...WITH A                 
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LENDING IT`S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROGGED RIDGE THEN SLOWS AS WELL DAMPENS               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
GFS STARTS OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN              
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY KEEPING THE FRONT                  
AROUND LONGER AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY                            
SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE              
MODEST RIDGING TAKES PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MUCH MORE ROBUST                   
PROGGED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH                
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.                           
HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE MODELS. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT             
LATELY...HOWEVER FEEL THAT IT DOES DAMPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT             
TOO MUCH AS IT BRINGS IT IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT            
OVERDONE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE                  
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING...WHILE INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE              
WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL                     
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. GENERALLY STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN               
MOS...THINKING THAT THE NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOL WITH THE OVERPLAYED              
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
WARM FRONT HAS EDGED NORTH TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG OUR             
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS KICKED UP             
EARLIER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS NO                
ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED              
TO OUR SOUTHEAST HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST                  
PERIOD. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP            
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS BACK INTO             
THE REGION. TIMING RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE THE 24-HOUR TAF                
PERIOD...SO CONDITIONS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THIS 18Z-18Z TAF.                   
SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING SHOWERS             
/ LOWERING CEILINGS IN ANOTHER CHANGE GROUP. FOR NOW...CEILINGS/                
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING              
THIS EVENING FROM HIGH CIRRUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON TO MID-LEVELS THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCLANE/GREIF                                                       
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...MCLANE                                                               
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AREA MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYERED MOISTURE THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE COLUMN. SFC OBS/SATL DATA CONFIRMS SCT-BKN                          
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACRS FORECAST AREA THIS LATE MORNING BUT THE                
CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR TO BE BREAKING AND THINNING. THEREFORE EXPECT              
SKY CONDITION WILL AVERAGE PTSUNNY DURING THE AFTN. INSOLATION                  
SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FCSTD VALUES RANGING                 
FROM M60S ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO M70S OVER PIEDMONT...BUT OF                 
COURSE COOLER WHERE FLOW IS ONSHORE. LTL IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO               
FCST ATTM BUT UPDATED FCST TO REFRESH PRODUCTS.                                 
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
DECIDED TO ADD SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WTRS FROM SMITH POINT                 
TO NEW POINT COMFORT...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT WAVES. RUC                
AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST INCRSG SFC WINDS AFTER 18Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW               
AROUND 15 KT AT SFC UNDER WEAK INVERSION WITH 25-30 KTS ABOVE                   
INVERSION. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS DOWN TO SFC.               
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT SO                   
OPTED NOT TO GO FOR SCA FOR SOUTHERN BAY BUT STEADY 15 KT. ON CSTL              
WTRS...EXPECT 15-20 KT SOUTH WINDS FROM FENWICK DOWN TO PARRAMORE               
WITH LONGER FETCH BUILDING SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA AFTER 2 PM.                     
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT/SAT                 
NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS                             
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH. THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH                
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 513 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD               
FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST                 
REGIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONERN TODAY WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER                
EXTENT (DEPTH) AND THUS IMPACT ON TEMPS.                                        
GFS/NAM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE ACCORD IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH                   
TONIGHT). BOTH INDICATE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE MASON-              
DIXON LINE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED AS THE              
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ENCOUNTERS A ZONAL/FLAT UPPER                  
RIDGE. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING/MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR POPS                    
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. AS FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW               
VEERS TOWARD THE S-SW RESULTING IN MORE APPRECIABLE WARMING (AND                
RELATIVE DRYING) WITHING THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. STILL EXPECT                    
PERIODIC WAVES OF HIGHER BASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTN AS WE GET INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...THUS HAVE WORDED PARTLY SUNNY. BASED ON RECENT                
TRENDS (YDAY)...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS TODAY FOR               
HIGH TEMPS. THIS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED                       
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN (ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH THE LATE MARCH               
SUN ANGLE).                                                                     
TONIGHT...FRONT DIPS INTO NRN VA AND THE NRN PTN OF THE DELMARVA.               
HAVE INCLUDED LOW (30-40%) POPS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA                   
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FLATTENING UPPER              
FLOW (AND NEGLIGIBLE STRAIGHT UPPER JET FORCING)...DYNAMICS AND THUS            
MOISTURE DEPTHS REMAIN LACKING. S OF FVX-RIC-MFV...MOISTURE IS                  
JUST TOO SHALLOW (PARTICULARLY IN LOW LEVELS) FOR POPS.                         
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS IS TOO                   
QUICK WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST-                 
OH VLY-MID ATLC REGION. SIDING MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND...                 
EXPECT A NW-SE DRAPED SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...             
WITH THE FRONT TAKING ON THE TYPICAL "SAG" EAST TOWARD THE COOLER               
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT EXPECT A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE...          
I.E. AROUND 80/LOWER 80S INLAND TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE LOWER ERN                
SHORE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LOW POPS OVER              
THE N-NE ZONES ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.                       
SATURDAY...GFS IS MUCH COOLER WITH THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO                 
THE OTHER MODELS...BASICALLY A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MODEL BEING TOO              
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL UPPER SHORTWAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE         
STATIONARY FRONT. GFS (MAV) MOS GUIDANCE IN FACT IS SOME 20+                    
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS OVER INLAND LOCALES COMPARED TO THE              
NAM (MET) GUIDANCE! FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM/          
ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT DROP THE FRONT S OF THE LOWER DELMARVA                   
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON THESE PROJECTIONS...EXPECT ANOTHER              
DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SW (80-85) TO                  
AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE (LOW-MID                
50S).                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/ECWMF TRENDS...AND WITH THE LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SAT-SUN...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO                
THE FCSTS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM              
THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE (OFFSHORE) ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR A                    
COOLER DAY OVER THE NERN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH AGAIN                   
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MUCH MILDER AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SW. TOWARD               
PETERSBURG/FARMVILLE/SOUTH HILL.                                                
AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE MVFR CIGS              
NORTH AND WEST...VFR SOUTH. FLOW TURNS TO S OR SW LATER TODAY WITH              
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BY AFTN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. MVFR CIGS MAY            
HANG TOUGH ON THE ERN SHORE THRU 16-18Z. CONTINUED VFR TONIGHT AS               
MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.                                
MARINE...GRADIENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.                
CHILLY BAY WATERS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX THESE               
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC...SO OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE BAY &                
SOUND BELOW SMALL CRAFT (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE LATER THIS AFTN).            
ON COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW (NEAR 20 KTS BY AFTN)             
WILL LIKELY BRING SEAS TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (5 FT                 
WAVES OFFSHORE) N OF PARRAMORE ISL...FROM LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH             
ERLY MRNG THU.  DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD               
FRONT SAT/SAT NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS               
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH.  THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH               
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SE TO S FLOW THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY                        
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY AFTN FOR MUCH OF INLAND VA.               
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO RH VALUES DO NOT DROP OFF              
THAT MUCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT 35-45% AT THE DRIEST.             
FARTHER EAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MIXING                  
SOMEWHAT SO WINDS LIKELY STAY MORE FROM DUE SOUTH AT 15 KTS OR LESS.            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT              
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN/FOSTER                                               
</pre> md                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST               
AREA...AND NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI.             
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS             
VIEWED ON 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 750-800MB) PER 12Z RUC. ASCENT SLACKENS             
DURING THE AFTN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT SOME LATER IN               
THE AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS...12Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS AND MORNING TAMDAR             
SOUNDING FROM KSAW SUPPORT RAISING HIGH TEMPS. KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS              
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F IF MIXED LAYER BUILDS TO               
850MB WHILE KSAW SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S. RAISED                 
HIGHS TO THE LWR END OF THOSE VALUES GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. TEMPS              
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER LIGHT SRLY                 
FLOW...AND THE COOLING SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF THE ERN FCST                 
AREA. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR EXCEPT FOR AREAS             
E OF MARQUETTE AS SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THRU THE AFTN TO               
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT THERE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT)...                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN TONIGHT.           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES                  
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NEXT SHORTWAVE             
IN THE FAST FLOW IS OVER NW ND. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE            
WERE SPREADING ACROSS NRN MN...AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD              
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. RADARS SHOW A DECENT AREA OF                  
RETURNS ACROSS FAR NE ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SFC OBS THAT                   
REPORT VSBY ARE SPARSE IN THAT AREA...SO DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH             
PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST FEW HRS...A COUPLE           
OF OBS IN SRN MANITOBA HAVE REPORTED 1-4SM IN -SN. WELL TO THE                  
W...SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES A DAY OR TWO AGO               
OVER THE W COAST HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST S             
OF CA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE                 
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE E...CROSSING UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR                
BTWN 03Z-09Z. BASED ON THE DARKENING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...             
THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE THAN THE WEAKER NAM. LATEST            
RUC AND 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT THE GFS. OVERLAP OF                  
MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
(CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 20MB) ON THE 290K SFC (AROUND                 
700MB) LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE PRESENT IN NE                 
ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED              
FARTHER S...BUT AIRMASS IS DRIER THERE. LATEST RUC IS VERY SIMILAR              
TO THE GFS WITH REGARD TO PROGRESSION OF QVECTOR                                
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU 06Z. FORCING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS            
TO SHIFT THRU NE MN BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UPPER MI/LAKE                
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...THE                     
WEAKENING FORCING SUGGESTS PCPN THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL TEND            
TO DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ON THE            
OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE            
MAY NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS MODELS INDICATE. SO...SITUATION IS                    
CERTAINLY STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS OVER NW LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. FCST WETBULB ZERO PROFILES                    
INDICATE ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS WILL BE SNOW.                                     
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE...CANADIAN/GFS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND               
850MB ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. SO THERE                
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.                  
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID               
50S. HOWEVER...SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER NEAR AND                   
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE            
SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND OVER THE NCNTRL MID/LATE AFTN AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER WINDS SLACKEN. FROM MUNISING EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT            
THRU THE DAY TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.                                
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
CONTINUITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS POOR CURRENTLY MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL             
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW ALONG CANADA/UNITED STATES BORDER. IN RECENT            
MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF SHORE OF BRITISH               
COLUMBIA WAS TO MOVE EAST AND ARRIVE OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES FRI              
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ALSO...THE WAVE WAS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT            
CAME EAST. NOW...A TREND IS EMERGING THAT RESULTS IN STRONGER WAVE              
NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL SAT. NAM MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS IDEA WHILE            
UKMET/GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE WEAKER. SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH                     
DIVERGENCE FM RRQ OF H3 OVR ONTARIO SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE MID             
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS FM GFS AND EVEN NAM ARE VERY DRY BLO H85            
SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS            
AND LIGHT WINDS SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AT THE SFC...RIDGE                   
DRIFTING OVER UPR LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUN. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH              
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS FEASIBLE THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE                
THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE WITH A GOOD PORTION OF CWA EXPERIENCING MIN            
TEMPS BLO FREEZING.                                                             
UPR LOW OVR SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO PLAINS SUN AND LIFTS TOWARD UPR               
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
HERE. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH TROUGH EJECTION AND WAS NOT PREFERRED             
DUE TO EVEN STRONGER KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELLING INTO WEST               
COAST AS EARLY AS SUN. LARGE AREA OF H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION...               
40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS ECLIPSING AN INCH (250-300 PCT OF NORMAL)              
ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PCPN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WARMING H85 TEMPS                
COMBINED WITH COOL H5 TEMPS AROUND -15C RESULT IN STEEPENING MID                
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT               
AND UPR TROUGH DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHICH IS             
WHEN BEST COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. 00Z GFS                
EVEN INDICATED SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD                 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MON EVENING. ECMWF MUCH QUICKER WITH FROPA.                
ALTHOUGH MOST PCPN WILL BE DONE BY MON NIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE              
IN GRIDS FOR TUE AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PER HPC AND              
H5 COLD POOL (-20C AT H5) ALSO ROTATES THROUGH. BRIEF RIDGING BOTH              
ALOFT AND AT SFC FOR WED...THEN DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVR            
MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS. SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY AT             
SFC...LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS                
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING             
E ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. SHARP DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. 00Z/12Z KINL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE                   
INCOMING DRY AIR NICELY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPED FROM 0.68 TO              
0.15 INCHES...AND 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-25C             
FROM 840MB TO 550MB. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE              
STRONG SHORTWAVE. WINDS WERE BEING AIDED BY 4-5MB/3HR PRES RISE MAX             
THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. CORE OF PRES RISES            
IS NOW OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI...SO STRONGEST WINDS             
HAVE JUST ABOUT PASSED THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS HEADING ESE THRU             
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ARE                 
ALREADY STREAMING E THRU ND INTO NRN MN.                                        
INHERITED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND ONLY REQUIRES MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME STRATOCU WILL BE AROUND               
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...MAINLY ACROSS THE N...ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB                
THERMAL TROF AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATOCU SHOULD BE               
GONE BY MID/LATE AFTN...BUT ALREADY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH             
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIPPING INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W. AS               
FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 800-850MB ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S ARE ON TRACK OVER THE W AND N. WNW               
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER                
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL. AS FOR                
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW             
MORE HRS WITH EXPECTATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS             
PRES RISE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MN                  
DRIFTS E.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
221 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES STILL STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING               
MARK OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AROUND HTL...WEST BRANCH. WITH               
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH...FELT COMPELLED TO EXTEND                    
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY OUT A FEW MORE HOURS. WARM AIR GETTING CLOSER            
AS WELL AS SFC DEWPOINTS HEADING TOWARD FREEZING. SO HOPEFULLY WE               
CAN DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST.                                   
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 144 PM.                                                   
AN INTERESTING SITUATION AS THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HUNG UP ALONG               
THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A SIZABLE SFC                
BASED INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WHEN THE                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS CAUSING LOW LEVEL WIND              
SHEAR THAT THE KAPX RADAR IS PEGGING AROUND 35 KTS AROUND 1500 FT.              
THE MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD            
FRONT AND BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 50+KTS OVERNIGHT AROUND 1500             
TO 2000 FEET. OTHERWISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TIMED MORE                
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SO HAVE THE                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE            
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE SFC THE                 
FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM.                                                       
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS                   
MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.              
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING REVEALING ABOVE             
FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX TEMP OF +5C                
WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND             
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE                    
MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW PASSING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...                    
     UNTIL 5 PM...MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
144 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...AN INTERESTING SITUATION AS THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HUNG            
UP ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A                   
SIZABLE SFC BASED INVERSION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY             
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT IS CAUSING LOW                
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT THE KAPX RADAR IS PEGGING AROUND 35 KTS AROUND            
1500 FT. THE MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF            
THE COLD FRONT AND BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 50+KTS OVERNIGHT                
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. OTHERWISE, THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE               
TIMED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SO HAVE              
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SFC TEMPERATURES            
ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT THE SFC THE             
FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1121 AM.                                                       
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS                   
MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW                
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.              
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 12Z APX SOUNDING REVEALING ABOVE             
FREEZING WARM NOSE BETWEEN 940 AND 740 MB WITH A MAX TEMP OF +5C                
WITHIN THE LAYER...A +6C CHANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN APX AND GRB PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND             
INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE                    
MOISTURE AXIS (PER MOIST CONVERGENCE PROCESSES) AND NOW PASSING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS                
AREA SPURRED ON BY BETTER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SPREADING               
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                                               
PER RADAR TRENDS...INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKING TO PASS THROUGH             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST               
QPF FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THIS               
AREA STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER                    
TERRAIN. A BIT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ONE...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM            
GRAND RAPIDS CWA INDICATE SOME ROADWAY ICING OCCURRING IN COUNTIES              
JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR UP THROUGH HTL/WEST               
BRANCH/GLADWIN...ETC. AFTER TALKING IT OVER WITH GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE            
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY VALID THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON TO HANDLE THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.                                
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER LOOKING TO                  
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD              
FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. BASICALLY...LOOKS WET WITH STRONG               
FORCING/IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW UP INTO THE STATE - PWATS RUNNING               
400 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS NOTED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT.                                               
A CNTRL PLAINS STORM SYS WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN LAKES RGN LATE THIS              
AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SRN               
LWR MI THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH TO A LINE             
FROM TVC TO HTL TO MBS BY 00Z THU. CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE              
NOTED OVR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER MSTR WILL CONT TO INCREASE OVR            
LOWER MI INTO THIS EVE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT              
SFC OBS FROM ARND WI AND ILL SHOWS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRONT. IFR EXPECTED OVER NRN LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT            
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE WRN LAKES.              
WILL MENTION LLWS OVR NRN LWR TAFS INTO THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER                    
SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ARND 2K FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARND 35              
KTS.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 640 AM WED MAR 21...JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON FREEZING             
RAIN POTENTIAL. PER REPORTS FROM IWX...FT WAYNE AREA PICKED UP ABOUT            
1/8 INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES (CARS/TREES). ROADS STAYED WET.            
SAME SORT OF STORY AT IWX PROPER.                                               
LATEST MODEL RUNS (06Z NAM INCLUDING BUFR DATA...09Z RUC) IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP ONSET FROM MBL TO             
HTL TO GLADWIN...TOWARD NOON AS OPPOSED TO 10AM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR            
A BIT MORE DIURNAL HEATING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS            
(NOTE THAT HTL/MBL/BIG RAPIDS/MT PLEASANT ARE ALL STILL REPORTING NO            
CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET...THICKER CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS I-96). BOTH              
MODELS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH QPF AS PRECIP MARCHES NORTHWARD              
INTO THE COOL/DRY AIR. RUC KEEPS QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                    
INCH...NAM .05 OR LESS. THIS IS A FAIR BIT DRIER THAN 00Z MODELS.               
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BAD NEWS IS THAT NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS BOTH                  
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL FZRA IS LIKELY WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...              
THUS PROBABLY LEADING TO AN IWX-TYPE SCENARIO (TREES ICY...ROADS                
NOT...THOUGH OUR COLDER GROUND TEMPS MAKE THAT FAR FROM CERTAIN).               
MAY UPDATE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM TO TIGHTEN DOWN THE TIMING               
AND WORDING A BIT. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT GOING WITHOUT A                
HEADLINE IS THE BEST COURSE (THOUGH I THINK I SAID THAT TWO MORNINGS            
AGO...AND THAT DEFINITELY DID NOT GO WELL).                                     
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 340 AM WED MAR 21...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE              
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING ON THIS EARLY              
SPRING MORNING...THOUGH TEMPS ARE RESPONDING VERY SLOWLY. SPOTTY                
DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN                
NORTHERN MN AND SW SUPERIOR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT WAS NEAR             
KC...ST LOUIS...AND LOUISVILLE. PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE               
FRONT...IN NORTHERN IN/IL. SPOTTY DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN              
NORTHERN MO AND IOWA. AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY               
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. IF IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THIS IS CONVERGING ON             
MI...YOU WOULD BE CORRECT. PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE             
THE CLEAR MAIN CHALLENGE.                                                       
MODELS...NAM REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER BRINING THE COLD FRONT THRU                
EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENT FORCING SHORTWAVE BLASTING ACROSS              
SUPERIOR...AND 80KT 500MB WESTERLY JET ON IT/S SOUTH FLANK...THE                
FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH MODEL TRENDS              
TOWARD A GENERALLY FASTER SOLUTION.                                             
TODAY...FIRST OFF...SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                       
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR WILL BOTH HAVE SOME            
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THEIR MOTION. THIS WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED                  
TSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GOOD             
PEOPLE OF WHITEFISH PT MAY BE ABLE TO SEE LIGHTNING FLASHES OUT OVER            
THE BIG LAKE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN             
UPPER MI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                                             
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH.            
THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS AS YESTERDAY (WITH THE RUC IN DECENT              
AGREEMENT)...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI                
TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAXIMIZED THETA-E                 
ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP               
POORLY. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ASCENT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT               
MIDDAY...WITH ALONG AND ON IT/S NORTH FLANK IN REGIME OF POSITIVE               
THETA-E ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS GENERALLY RATHER DRY AT THE                       
MOMENT...BUT RAPID INCREASE IN SW LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
QUICKLY MOISTEN THINGS UP. RAIN WILL REACH OR APPROACH MBL AND                  
GLADWIN BY 15Z...AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE HERE.              
SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING GREATLY THIS MORNING.                 
HOWEVER...WE ARE RATHER NIPPY NOW...AND AM CONCERNED THAT A QUICK               
TOUCH OF ICING WILL OCCUR RIGHT AT ONSET. AIR TEMPS WILL CLIMB PAST             
FREEZING RIGHT ABOUT AT PRECIP ONSET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT                
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LAG BY JUST A BIT. WILL THUS MENTION A               
VERY BRIEF PERIOD (AT MIDDAY/PRECIP ONSET) OF MIXED RAIN/FREEZING               
RAIN FROM CAD EASTWARD. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON                   
TEMP/RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.                                                 
TO THE NORTH...AIRMASS SATURATES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING IS                
LESS THAN FURTHER SOUTH. 700-600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AS              
IT HEADS NORTH...AND DOESN/T GET NORTH OF M-72 TIL ALMOST SUNDOWN.              
STILL...THE AIRMASS IS SOGGY ENOUGH...WITH GENERAL (THOUGH                      
UNFOCUSED) ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS IN             
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT EASTERN UPPER MI...TOO FAR NORTH              
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE). SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD RISE                       
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS...AND AM NOT              
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH...AS SOUPY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES             
IN OVER COLDER LAKES AND GROUND...SOME FOG IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY            
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND            
FORCING SHORTWAVE RACE IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS ARE                  
COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT EVEN THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE            
SOGGY. 850MB JET WILL CRANK UP TO 50KT BY LATE EVENING...CONTINUING             
TO ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (AT LEAST BY              
MARCH STANDARDS). PWATS WILL RISE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES...SOME 400                  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOUGH THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING             
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST...AT THIS TIME PLAN ON CARRYING CATEGORICAL             
POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (THE SE ZONES               
BEING THE EXCEPTION). ALSO WILL ADD FOG...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS             
QPF AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH. SCT TSTORMS STILL ANTICIPATED...                  
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/               
TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...CAPES 400-500J/KG            
WHEN LIFTING FROM 900MB). STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AND UNLIKELY TO             
BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE             
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO...MUCH OF THE THAW IS DONE IN NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI...BUT SOME PLACES RIVERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AND/OR ICY...AND              
THE COLD GROUND WILL NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO ABSORBING RAINFALL (AT                 
LEAST IN SPOTS). IN EASTERN UPPER MI...MUCH MORE SNOW TO MELT...BUT             
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO LARGELY ABSORB THE RAINFALL INSTEAD OF JUST                 
MELTING ALL AT ONCE. NOT ENOUGH CONCERNS TO WARRANT A FLOOD                     
WATCH...BUT WILL TALK ABOUT LOCAL HIGH PROBLEMS POSSIBLE IN OUTLOOK.            
THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SPEED UP            
EXIT OF PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED            
OUT OF THE REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
BEHIND FRONT IS COOLISH BUT NOT COLD...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER MI WILL             
SEE A POCKET OF COLDER 850MB AIR (TO -10C) ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.             
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FALLING              
OFF A BIT IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AND PERHAPS A DOWNSLOPE-ASSISTED                
SMALL DIURNAL RISE FROM APN SOUTHWARD.                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ZONAL 500MB FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE                 
REGION WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. A COUPLE OF                      
SHORTWAVES FLITTING BY NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE SOME                 
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN UPPER MI (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY)...VS            
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP                
EASTERN UPPER MI DRY FOR NOW...THE LOW LEVELS STAY DRY AS THE MID               
LEVELS MOISTEN THU NIGHT...AND THE REVERSE TAKES PLACE ON FRIDAY.               
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH MAX TEMPS 45 TO 55.                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL SWING            
OVER ONTARIO AND UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT...WITH A                 
NARROW BAND OF 850/700MB MSTR PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE. THE            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AS IT ALREADY HAS CHC PCPN OVER EAST              
UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE MIX RA/SN               
LOOKS TO BE IN LINE...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE ARND 0C.                 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES/RIDGING AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE            
DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN THRU THE REST OF SAT                 
AND SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING / DEEPENING UPPER             
LVL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST THRU SUNDAY. WILL CONT THE MENTION OF AFTN            
HIGHS AROUND 50 SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS NR +2C. SUNDAYS FCST HIGHS                
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK IN LINE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO                    
+6C.                                                                            
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...UNTIL               
     2 PM...MIZ028>030-033>036-041-042.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
915 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING UPPER RIDGE      
OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO CUT OFF LOW LEVEL GULF                 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. REMOVED PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTH AND         
PUT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM          
THE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS         
TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE 70S BY NOON BEFORE       
REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON./17/                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI/HBG            
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS            
THE WHOLE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK                
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE                    
3KFT./17/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
915 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING UPPER RIDGE      
OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO CUT OFF LOW LEVEL GULF                 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. REMOVED PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTH AND         
PUT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM          
THE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS         
TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE 70S BY NOON BEFORE       
REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON./17/                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI FOR            
SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z             
AT HBG FOR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL            
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN              
DECK DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE               
3KFT./17/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION UNDER AN                
UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CONTINUING OUR LONG ROUND OF DRY WEATHER.                
SHOULD GET SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS        
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS LIFTED OVER OUR THE SOUTHEAST                   
ZONES...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CURRENT               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER              
CHANGES TO THE ZONES./17/                                                       
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG           
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 FOR FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z FRIDAY./17/                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG            
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. VFR                  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z EACH MORNING. /22/            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: 22                                                                  
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                        
AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
EXTENDING FROM NE MO THROUGH SE KS AND INTO NE TX. DECENT MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH                   
THETA-E RIDGING TO THE TUNE OF 328K NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL                    
MISSOURI. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY RESIDES            
OVER JASPER COUNTY MO AND CHEROKEE COUNTY MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE                 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDS FARTHER EAST ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE              
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS (AS VIEWED THROUGH THE                
LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS).                                                    
WITH PWS FROM THE MORNING KSGF SOUNDING AROUND 1.15 INCHES AND KIS              
IN EXCESS OF 30...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL                   
PRODUCTION. METARS ACROSS SE KS CORRELATE WELL TO 1-HR RAINFALL                 
RATES. WITH THE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS EXTREME SE KS AND WESTERN MO WHERE FLASH                
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.                             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN                    
ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHEAR AXIS               
WILL PROMOTE TRAINING CONVECTION IN AN AREA WITH LOWER TOLERANCE FOR            
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                                                         
ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.                                        
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
//303 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007//                                                  
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF                 
YEAR...NO COLD FRONTS OR MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS             
OVERHEAD.  HOWEVER...DUE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GULF                          
INFLUX...SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE             
OFFING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST             
CONCERN IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS PRECIP CHANCES IN BOTH THE                
SHORT AND LONG TERM TIME FRAMES.                                                
ONE ITEM TO NOTE...BECAUSE OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF               
THE GULF OF MEXICO...A RATHER HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FROM            
THE GULF INTO MID AMERICA.  DRY ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC REGIONS             
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP RICH MOISTURE FROM MATERIALIZING WITHIN THE              
WESTERN GULF SOURCE REGION.  THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LONG PERIOD OF             
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIMITED FOR                  
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                  
SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                            
A SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA                   
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
AND MISSOURI OZARKS REGION.  A BELT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS             
AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE...AND IS CORRELATED WITH                
LARGE SCALE LIFT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF JET STREAM LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.             
A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME                  
APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL                      
DIFFLUENCE...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROFILER                  
NETWORK WHEN ANALYZING 250 MB WIND VECTOR MEASUREMENTS.                         
ONE OF THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING EXTREME                 
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  DUE TO LIMITED                        
INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE               
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING             
STRIKES.  TIMING OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND HOW IT EVOLVES WITH             
RESPECT TO AREAL COVERAGE WAS THE INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN FOR                  
TODAYS PERIOD.                                                                  
EXTRAPOLATION WITH THE CLUSTERS CURRENT MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT AFTER            
12Z...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  RAIN WILL LIKELY END IN THE SPRINGFIELD METRO            
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 - 8AM.  THEREFORE WILL ADJUST MORNING POPS              
TO REPRESENT THIS EXTRAPOLATION...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS               
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN TAPERING THE GRID TO SLIGHT             
CHANCES OUT WEST.  IT`S LIKELY THAT THE CLUSTER WILL LOSE SOME OF               
IT`S LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH NOCTURNAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.               
BOTH THE WRF AND THE GFS INDICATE A SECOND CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO             
IMPACT THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...THE ONLY KINEMATIC                   
MECHANISM TO CAUSE THIS APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER                 
DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR ABILENE TEXAS.                
HOW THIS FORECASTED BAND OF FORCING WILL IMPACT THE OZARKS REMAINS              
VERY QUESTIONABLE.  QPF FIELDS FROM THE WRF AND GFS ARE VERY                    
INCONSISTENT AND NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL.  HOWEVER MOS GUIDANCE                   
SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS.                                      
WILL ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POP GRID TO 50 POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY            
ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.  ONE ELEMENT THAT WE DO KNOW FOR SURE IS THAT              
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...WHICH              
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.  WITH EARLY MORNING                     
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...DESPITE CLOUD                 
COVER AND PRECIP READINGS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S IN MOST                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE BAJA LOW WILL FILL WHILE THE MAIN                
CIRCULATION SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS              
FROM THE GFS INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS              
EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT                
PROCESSES OCCUR BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL YIELD MORE AREAS OF             
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS                 
CORRIDOR.  RESIDUAL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE              
DAY ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CWA.  WILL KEEP ONGOING                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING IN THE GRIDS DUE TO SIGNALS FROM BOTH THE            
GFS AND WRF FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS PERIOD.                       
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CAN BE ANALYZED WITHIN               
MODEL DATA.  THEREFORE SINCE WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THIS EXTENDED                 
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                 
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
LONG TERM (MONDAY - THURSDAY)...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS...BASICALLY THE RESIDUAL TROUGHING FROM THE             
ONGOING BAJA CYCLONE IS SUGGESTED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA            
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  NOT MUCH OF A RESPONSE OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AS             
THE OZARKS REMAINS UNDER SOUTHERN FLOW.  COOLING ALOFT MAY PROMOTE              
INCREASED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP                
ONGOING TSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY LOOK GOOD AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP            
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS WILL REINFORCE THE                 
UNSETTLED PATTERN AND OFFER A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM                 
TEMPERATURES.  I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BY WARMING              
THESE GRIDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED.  ECMWF HAS BEEN                 
PERFORMING THE BEST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH SHOWS ENERGY                
APPROACHING THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS NOT                
MUCH DIFFERENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION.  THEREFORE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO            
THESE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE NEEDED.                                 
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAF SITES WERE AMENDED EARLIER TO GAUGE RAINFALL/TS TIMING. IT                  
APPEARS THAT CIGS/VIS WILL WAVER FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE ON                   
AGAIN...OFF AGAIN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST            
AT JLN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT SGF...CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE                
LOWER IN TIMING DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF CONVECTION...AN               
ESTIMATED TIMING IS PROVIDED IN THE LATEST TAF TARGETING THE EARLY              
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                         
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
800 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM             
NEAR CONCORDIA NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF OMAHA. REPORTS FROM OAX                    
INDICATED NUMEROUS THREE QUARTER TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER HAIL REPORTS            
WITH THIS LINE. MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT         
THE THREAT OF HAIL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME                  
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                             
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY                      
DIMINISHING. LATEST RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE CAP OVER THE CWA               
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF INSOLATION...SBCAPE AND             
MUCAPE DROP TO 1000-1250 J/KG BETWEEN 09-12Z. SHEAR WILL REMAIN                 
MARGINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO              
REACH A KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON LINE BY 08Z. BY 12Z...ONLY SMALL               
HAIL IS EXPECTED.                                                               
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
331 PM...                                                                       
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PERIODS AS LARGE SCALE              
PATTERN CHANGE HAS PLACED THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION IN A                 
FAVORED AREA FOR REPEATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.                                 
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIRMASS             
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS APPROACHING            
60 DEGREES. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH                
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LEAVING THE             
AREA CAPPED ABOVE AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS CANOPY. PACIFIC COLD                     
FRONT/DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM NORFOLK TO KEARNEY NEBRASKA...AND PER              
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN PRECEDED BY AN INTERESTING                   
GRAVITY WAVE.                                                                   
SHORT MODEL PROGS COLLABORATE WELL WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SHOWING            
THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SE NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT                
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG THE             
ADVANCING FRONT AND JUST EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE LOW. ATTENDANT            
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING LINE              
SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES               
COUPLE WITH INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AFTER DARK. CERTAINLY               
STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE THE GREATER THREAT FOR            
SEVERE. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE THREAT WILL PERSIST             
AFTER DARK...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR             
CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY A             
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. INCREASED                  
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS PRIMARY FOCUSED IN AREAS NORTH             
AND WEST OF A KANSAS CITY TO TRENTON LINE.                                      
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG EAX/SGF CWA BORDER            
TOMORROW MORNING...AND WAFFLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES            
OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EJECTED FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW                     
ENTRENCHED IN THE BAJA. VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TYPE OF              
YEAR...BUT THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY RAISES A RED FLAG THAT CUMULATIVE RAINFALL                
TOTALS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING BY THE WEEKEND.                                   
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS THE                           
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS DEPENDING ON               
ITS DAY TO DAY PLACEMENT AND PROPAGATION. WHERE PERIODIC SUNSHINE IS            
ABLE TO MANIFEST BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...RAPID WARMING INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S-MID 70S COULD OCCUR GIVEN BALMY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES                
BENEATH WEAK 500MB RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. EQUALLY                    
POSSIBLE ARE HIGHS IN THE 50S WHERE MCS INDUCED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD             
DEBRIS KEEP READINGS NEARLY WET BULBED.                                         
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF               
THE CLOSED BAJA LOW INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF STILL              
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS              
ENSEMBLES HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION THE PAST            
SEVERAL RUNS. BEFORE THE MAIN BRUNT OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS                   
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE             
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS WHOSE WRN PERIPHERY SHOULD ALIGN ALONG THE LOWER            
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INVIGORATE LIFT              
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LEAD TO SEVERAL              
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS SFC AND             
LOW LEVEL FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF MISSOURI KEEPING            
FOCUSING MECHANISM FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT                 
PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT               
INTO THE AREA ASSISTED BY A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ...SO HAVE               
CONTINUED A 30-40 PERCENT POP RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE               
THE POSSIBILITY OF A POTENT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY. AS WITH                
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER               
WEST OF THE AREA SHEARED MORE SO OVER THE RIDGE AXIS.                           
REGARDLESS...AS THE WAVE EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASING              
H5/H7 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA                  
OVERTOP OF INCREASING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE LEADING TO HEIGHTENED              
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FORECAST AOA 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME                    
TIME...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
VECTORS AOA 50KT WITH THE REGION SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT              
FRONT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KT UPPER JET. OTHER THAN THE UPPER WAVE              
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PLACEMENT...MAIN UNCERTAINTY                   
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ANY MORNING CONVECTION CONTAMINATING THE                  
MODIFIED AIRMASS PROHIBITING FULL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.                    
AFTER THE UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES...A SFC FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN              
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER LARGE CHUNK OF                 
ENERGY ESTABLISHES A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. PREFER A               
SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THIS LONGWAVE             
FEATURE EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.                   
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THIS RESPECT WHICH KEEPS            
THE AREA MAINLY DRY...ALBEIT QUITE WARM FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST             
PERIOD.                                                                         
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION              
REACHING STJ AROUND 07Z. THE CONVECTION WILL LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS.            
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE              
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...POSSIBLY VERY               
BRIEFLY IFR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE KANSAS              
CITY AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OF THE AIRPORTS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VFR CEILINGS ARE             
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z AT STJ AND AFTER 12Z AT MKC AND MCI.  ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1040 AM MST FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST                 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY            
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO                  
SATURDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER...HIGHER PRESSURE FROM             
THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...            
BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE OUT            
WEST SATURDAY...AND OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH              
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDY                
CONDITIONS NEXT TUESDAY...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT                 
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                         
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF 16Z...AND WAS                  
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT HAS BACKED OVERNIGHT...AND            
IS NOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. UPPER LOW IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY...BE OVER FAR            
SOUTHEAST AZ BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND            
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RESIDUAL                
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION ALL DAY SATURDAY.                             
AS OF 10 AM...SHWRS AND ISOLATED TRW WERE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN                
MARICOPA COUNTY ACROSS NORTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN GILA                
COUNTY. SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING WAS NOTED TO THE REAR OF THIS BAND              
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND MUCH             
OF PIMA COUNTY. COMBINATION OF TEMPORARY CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH...               
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB TEMP DOWN TO -22C OVER AND SOUTH OF             
PHOENIX ACCORDING TO THE RUC)...AND CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS              
CLOUD STREETS OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BODES WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS             
TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA TODAY...WITH STORMS               
PROPAGATING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MID-LATE                     
AFTERNOON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING...IN TERMS OF OMEGA AND             
DIVERGENCE...IS NOT IMPRESSIVE LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON                  
/EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OVER S-CNTRL AZ WILL             
BE LOWER TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS                      
(MIXED-LAYER LI -2 TO -4C) AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW SUPPORT IDEA THAT             
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ COULD PICK UP DECENT ADDITIONAL                    
RAINFALL...THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM LOCATION TO                 
LOCATION (UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN MOST OF S-CNTRL AZ PICKED UP ONE              
HALF TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN). MEANWHILE...WRAPAROUND CLOUD             
BAND AND LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA            
AND FAR WESTERN AZ THIS MORNING...WHERE FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE                  
NORTHEAST. CLOUD/SHWR PLUME EXTENDS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR                  
CWA...SO AGREE WITH LATEST GFS THAT THIS PORTION OF THE CWA WILL                
EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS                 
TODAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. I HAVE                     
TRIMMED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AREA FOR                
TODAY GIVEN PREVAILING WX CONDITIONS. ONE OTHER ITEM...GIVEN THE                
VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME              
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM...CANNOT RULE OUT               
SOME PATCHY FOG. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT ON WX GRIDS THIS AM DUE TO              
EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE FOG...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL            
NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                                           
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS THE LOW ZIPS NEWD INTO COLORADO BY                
SATURDAY AFTN...THERE WILL BE A DECREASING CLOUDS AND POPS FROM THE             
WEST...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE GRADUALLY THINNING OVER                        
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS            
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN ZONE 24. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE                
SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS SAT AND RISE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER             
SERN CA AND THE WESTERN DESERTS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES. HIGHER                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY FOR DRY AND SOMEWHAT                
WARMER CONDITIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
DRY PATTERN. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA                  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND                  
EVENT...WITH RATHER TIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS (AT 700MB GFS SHOWS                   
40-50KTS BY MID DAY TUESDAY)...AND A VERY WINDY SCENARIO COULD LEAD             
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE CAL AS SYSTEM                 
ADVECTS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR               
DETAILS. AFTER A DECENT WARMUP SUNDAY-TUESDAY  NOTICEABLY COOLER                
WEATHER IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AFTER            
THAT TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH             
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE             
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTINUE TO            
ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ AND SE CA AROUND THE UPPER BAJA LOW. CIGS            
AS LOW AS 3000 FEET AND VSBYS DOWN TO 3-4 SM MAY PERIODICALLY OCCUR             
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.               
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN AZ GENERATING STRONG            
GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...AND             
IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A CRITICAL FIRE                   
WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE CALIFORNIA AND            
WRN AZ WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION OCCURRED WITH CURRENT STORM SYSTEM.             
ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE               
WEATHER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
/DG/11/10/MEYERS/ROGERS                                                         
</pre> az                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> az                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1253 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.                       
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA WITH A SLOW EASTWARD                      
PROGRESSION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY AFFECT NORTH ARKANSAS                 
TOWARDS 12Z AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND VFR ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS IN THE NORTH                  
WILL DROP TO 2500 FT WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5SM. THE UPPER                   
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OF               
THE AREA AROUND 18Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     56  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  20                              
CAMDEN AR         58  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
HARRISON AR       55  75  58  73 /  20  10  10  40                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  59  76 /  10  10  10  40                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  78  60  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
MONTICELLO AR     58  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  20                              
MOUNT IDA AR      57  78  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  75  56  75 /  20  10  10  40                              
NEWPORT AR        57  76  58  77 /  20  10  10  20                              
PINE BLUFF AR     59  79  61  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  77  59  75 /  10  10  10  40                              
SEARCY AR         58  77  59  77 /  10  10  10  20                              
STUTTGART AR      59  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...51                                                                   
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
905 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
TO RIDE A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED ALONG THE                    
NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM                  
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE IN AN AREA OF STRONG LIFT. NEW RUC13 AND NAM              
12 KEEP AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND                 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. NAM12 AND WRF10 DO MOVE SOME                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE LZK CWA AFTER 12Z                
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL DEVELOP AS OTHER SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL KEEP                 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA.                                                   
CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE               
CWA TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE                
LEFT IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO TWEAK                   
SKY...DEW POINT AND RH GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS RAISED A TAD AS WELL. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS NEAR 7              
THSD OR HIGHER. AREAS OF CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND WILL MOVE IN ARND 06Z.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST                  
AFTER 08Z.(38)                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST.                     
FRONT TO NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS LATER                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT WILL STALL DUE TO THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS             
ALOFT. EVEN SO...PUT SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER.                          
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND.                                              
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LARGE STORM SYSTEM IN THE             
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE LONG TERM.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. (46)                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AS A                
SHORT WAVE. IT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY                 
SINCE A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON             
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH               
COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS THAT WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE               
PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WARMTH AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTER                   
SECTIONS. THEN...IT WILL KEEP ON MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.             
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT                
WAVE DRIVING IT GOES ON BY ALOFT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM               
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER SUPPORT            
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SO FAR NORTH THAT DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL             
THIS TREND GETS PICKED UP IN OTHER RUNS. NO CHALLENGE TO THE ABOVE              
NORMAL TRENDS WILL BE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. (32)                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  56  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
CAMDEN AR         60  80  58  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
HARRISON AR       59  75  55  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  78  58  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MONTICELLO AR     59  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNT IDA AR      58  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  54  75 /  30  30  20  10                              
NEWPORT AR        59  77  57  76 /  10  20  20  10                              
PINE BLUFF AR     60  79  59  79 /  10  10  10  10                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  77  56  77 /  20  20  10  10                              
SEARCY AR         60  78  58  77 /  10  10  10  10                              
STUTTGART AR      60  79  59  78 /  10  10  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...38                                                
</pre> ar                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1040 AM MST FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST                 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY            
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO                  
SATURDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER...HIGHER PRESSURE FROM             
THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...            
BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE OUT            
WEST SATURDAY...AND OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH              
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDY                
CONDITIONS NEXT TUESDAY...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT                 
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                         
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF 16Z...AND WAS                  
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT HAS BACKED OVERNIGHT...AND            
IS NOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. UPPER LOW IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY...BE OVER FAR            
SOUTHEAST AZ BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND            
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RESIDUAL                
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OUR REGION ALL DAY SATURDAY.                             
AS OF 10 AM...SHWRS AND ISOLATED TRW WERE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN                
MARICOPA COUNTY ACROSS NORTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN GILA                
COUNTY. SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING WAS NOTED TO THE REAR OF THIS BAND              
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND MUCH             
OF PIMA COUNTY. COMBINATION OF TEMPORARY CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH...               
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB TEMP DOWN TO -22C OVER AND SOUTH OF             
PHOENIX ACCORDING TO THE RUC)...AND CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS              
CLOUD STREETS OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BODES WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS             
TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA TODAY...WITH STORMS               
PROPAGATING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MID-LATE                     
AFTERNOON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING...IN TERMS OF OMEGA AND             
DIVERGENCE...IS NOT IMPRESSIVE LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON                  
/EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OVER S-CNTRL AZ WILL             
BE LOWER TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS                      
(MIXED-LAYER LI -2 TO -4C) AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW SUPPORT IDEA THAT             
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ COULD PICK UP DECENT ADDITIONAL                    
RAINFALL...THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM LOCATION TO                 
LOCATION (UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN MOST OF S-CNTRL AZ PICKED UP ONE              
HALF TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN). MEANWHILE...WRAPAROUND CLOUD             
BAND AND LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA            
AND FAR WESTERN AZ THIS MORNING...WHERE FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE                  
NORTHEAST. CLOUD/SHWR PLUME EXTENDS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR                  
CWA...SO AGREE WITH LATEST GFS THAT THIS PORTION OF THE CWA WILL                
EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS                 
TODAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. I HAVE                     
TRIMMED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AREA FOR                
TODAY GIVEN PREVAILING WX CONDITIONS. ONE OTHER ITEM...GIVEN THE                
VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME              
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM...CANNOT RULE OUT               
SOME PATCHY FOG. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT ON WX GRIDS THIS AM DUE TO              
EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE FOG...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL            
NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                                           
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS THE LOW ZIPS NEWD INTO COLORADO BY                
SATURDAY AFTN...THERE WILL BE A DECREASING CLOUDS AND POPS FROM THE             
WEST...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE GRADUALLY THINNING OVER                        
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS            
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN ZONE 24. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE                
SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS SAT AND RISE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER             
SERN CA AND THE WESTERN DESERTS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES. HIGHER                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY FOR DRY AND SOMEWHAT                
WARMER CONDITIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
DRY PATTERN. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA                  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WIND                  
EVENT...WITH RATHER TIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS (AT 700MB GFS SHOWS                   
40-50KTS BY MID DAY TUESDAY)...AND A VERY WINDY SCENARIO COULD LEAD             
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE CAL AS SYSTEM                 
ADVECTS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR               
DETAILS. AFTER A DECENT WARMUP SUNDAY-TUESDAY  NOTICEABLY COOLER                
WEATHER IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AFTER            
THAT TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH             
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE             
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTINUE TO            
ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ AND SE CA AROUND THE UPPER BAJA LOW. CIGS            
AS LOW AS 3000 FEET AND VSBYS DOWN TO 3-4 SM MAY PERIODICALLY OCCUR             
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.               
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN AZ GENERATING STRONG            
GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...AND             
IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A CRITICAL FIRE                   
WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE CALIFORNIA AND            
WRN AZ WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION OCCURRED WITH CURRENT STORM SYSTEM.             
ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE               
WEATHER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
/DG/11/10/MEYERS/ROGERS                                                         
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
845 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU...OTHERWISE                  
SKIES ARE CLEAR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN BAJA LOW              
ARE JUST EAST OF KERN CO. SOME OF THESE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE                   
ACROSS THE KERN DESERT FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNITE SO PTCLDY THERE               
LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS THIS EVE RUNNING 6-8 DEGS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY               
AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED GOOD WARMING EXPECTED TOMORROW.                     
CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVE.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                          
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...                                                          
NONE                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINGHAM/MOLINA/MV                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
232 PM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER OVER THE                   
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES                
TO SETTLE DOWN. WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SAW ANOTHER                    
WARMING TREND AS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEG-F               
ABOVE THAT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT                 
SUPPORTING TODAY/S WARMING TEMP/S...WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING               
THE 70S. WHILE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE                  
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...AND                   
TRACKING NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE                   
DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RUC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE               
IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE AREA.                      
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH NO POSSIBLE              
WEATHER. YET...THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE STORM               
THEN THE REST OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE                    
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE DESERTS (TOKEN) JUST IN CASE THE                    
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE               
OF THE SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BE OBSERVED OVER THE DESERT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISTRICT               
THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                       
DAYS...WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE WEST THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND IN                   
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. AROUND SUNDAY...SHORT RANGE                  
MODELS BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SWITCH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW                   
PATTERN BEFORE ALLOWING ANOTHER TROF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.                
LATEST TIMING STILL HAS THE NEXT TROF OVER THE WEST COAST AROUND                
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOWING LITTLE PHASE                  
UNCERTAINTY BUT IS SHOWING GOOD SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE AROUND 12Z              
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIP NORTH OF KERN COUNTY DURING THE EVENT. IN ADDITION...DURING              
TROF PASSAGE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMP/S DROPPING TO                
AROUND MINUS 24-28 DEG-C. BEING THAT THIS MAY BE A COLD                         
SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SNOW LEVELS DURING THE STORM.                        
FURTHERMORE...WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AT THIS                  
TIME OF THE YEAR...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE               
STORM EVENT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOWARD TUESDAY                 
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KERN COUNTY                 
DESERTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.                
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA             
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER              
TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.               
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE                   
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE VERY                  
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM             
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS...COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...AND            
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHER            
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME                
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG               
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG               
WITH SOME COOLING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                       
12Z POSITION OF CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR 30N/117W WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY             
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIMETER. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO            
BE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF LATEST RUC...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE                
STRONGEST VORT CENTER SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE 500MB WIND SPEEDS WERE              
ALSO STRONGEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...50-70KTS.             
AFTER SUNRISE THE CONVECTION PICKED UP IN OUR CWA...AND CONTINUED TO            
DRIFT INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WAS THROUGH               
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE SPOTTERS/RAWS DATA REPORTED .30 TO .45               
INCH UP TO 6 AM. SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS               
EASTERN AZ EARLIER TODAY. UPDATES ISSUED BY 8 AM TO COVER 88D TRENDS.           
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STRONGEST LIFT AND LOWEST STABILITY INDICES             
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AND THAT FITS NICELY WITH OUR CURRENT FCSTS.                 
ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM GIVES PHX A 24 HR PRECIP AMOUNT OF .38 INCH WE              
WILL STILL EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 23. HOWEVER             
WE COULD SEE MUCH MORE...ACROSS ZONE 24...PER HPC OUTPUT. OUR                   
WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY MUCH DIRER...WITH SOME PATCHY BLWG DUST                 
TODAY. IN FACT ONE SHARP-EYED SPOTTER CALLED IN A REPORT OF BLOWING             
DUST NEAR A FARM FIELD WEST OF TONOPAH.                                         
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED               
LOW OVER NRN MEX INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z SAT LATEST GFS CALLS FOR             
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO LIFT OUT TO NEAR ABQ...WITH CSDRBL RH              
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EVEN WEST OF PHX. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS             
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
WITH SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE...               
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY RIDGE BUILDING FOR A QUICK             
WARMUP. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECWMF ARE                  
SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE OF A              
DIFFERENT CHARACTER...MUCH LESS APT TO SLOW DOWN AND JOG SOUTHWARD.             
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A               
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...TAKING THE BULK OF THE               
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SHOWS LOWER HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF              
IS EVEN COOLER LOOKING THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND A BIT SLOWER.               
THUS...UNDERCUT GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. TRAJECTORY OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS...SO HELD OFF ON             
INTRODUCING ANY. IF ECMWF SOLUTION WINDS UP BEING CORRECT...THEN WE             
MIGHT NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...IF              
ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MIGHT NEED EVEN COOLER TEMPS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LGT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT                
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY. WINDS IN THE 6 TO 12 THSD LAYER PROGGED TO              
REMAIN 180/22 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS ALOFT. SOME            
GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS OR SO STILL POSSIBLE IN THE KPHX AREA LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP             
LAYER...WE COULD EASILY SEE LOWER CIGS LESS THAN 6-7 THSD FT.                   
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE            
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE RIM             
FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WESTERN            
PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...AN INTENSE            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN             
AZ GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS REGION-WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS             
WILL BE LIKELY...AND IF HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...A            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES             
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS AND                 
DISCUSSIONS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
10                                                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
916 AM PDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWINGS EASTWARD THIS                
MORNING AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH CHANNELED FLOW OVER THE                   
DISTRICT. AT THE 250MB LEVEL...RUC ANALYSIS HAS A +100KT JET MAX                
EXITING THE AREA WITH A GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF WINDS THIS                    
MORNING. WHILE WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE                        
DIMINISHING THIS MID MORNING...WINDS EARLIER WERE ABLE TO REACH 30              
TO 40 MPH. AS THE JET MOVES FURTHER AWAY...WILL SEE MOUNTAIN WINDS              
DECREASE FURTHER AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CALIFORNIA.                  
FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OFF-SHORE WHICH WILL               
SUPPORT THE EXPECTED WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE                 
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT...WILL SEE GENERAL CLEARING                  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUAL               
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST ALONG             
THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WELL AS                
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 17Z.                   
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE              
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY THIS MORNING.                         
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL                        
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. FOR SPECIFIC                            
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL AND                 
TWEB ROUTES 421 AND 423.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC:MOLINA                                                                   
AVIATION:MV                                                                     
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD                                                             
</pre> ca                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
437 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...                  
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAD            
A MATURING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CA BAJA WITH AN EXPANDED SYNOPTIC                
SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE NORTH-EAST QUADRANTS ACROSS AZ/WRN            
NM. SOME OF THE MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING INTO                  
EXTREME SWRN CO. THERE WAS A ROGUE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER E            
CNTRL NM MOVING NWD...BUT IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS TO MOVES AWAY            
FROM ITS LOW LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT. ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT TSRA WAS ACROSS SRN NM JUST NORTH OF THE                
SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS NEW MINI-MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY               
FALL APART ONCE IT GETS INTO NERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING.                        
BASICALLY...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO OUR WRN CWFA/CONTDVD              
AND IN EXTREME SERN CO. TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD WITH                   
40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS SERN CO AND 20S/30S IN THE MOUNTAINS/ HIGH                 
VALLEYS.                                                                        
TODAY...WE WILL BE WAITING FOR THE OLD CLOSED LOW TO EJECT LATER                
TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH "SIGNIFICANT" WEATHER UNTIL LATER            
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS.              
ACROSS SERN CO...PRECIP MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE                    
GROUND...INITIALLY...GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTING              
VIRGA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION SHAFTS...IF            
THEY FORM...MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON               
ACROSS SERN CO. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT MSL              
LATER TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY DOABLE AND BLENDED                
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.                                                       
TONIGHT...06Z/23 WRF IS INTERESTING COMPARED TO THE 00Z/23 RUN. THE             
00Z/23 RUN HAD THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION                     
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET WHILE WE WAIT FOR THE LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL            
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRECIPITATION TO GENERATE TOWARDS SAT AM.                 
WELL...NOW IT "BLOWS" UP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SANGRE DE                  
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z/23 DID NOT "BLOW UP"            
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.  ONE CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION ZONE                  
DEVELOPING MAY BE ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX/WRN OK INTO EXTREME SERN CO              
LATE TONIGHT. AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW LIFTS N-NEWD OUT OF AZ/WRN                  
NM...RELATIVELY DEEP SLY FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE PER H7               
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS/MAG. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR              
MASS TO GENERATE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JUST S OF EXTREME               
SERN CO AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WRF                    
SUGGESTING A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM JUST AHEAD OF THE               
CLOSED LOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. MIGHT SEE SOME MODERATE TO               
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO AND SWD GIVEN GEORGE/S K-INDICES              
OF 35-40C AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AROUND 5 G/KG AND MORE                    
IMPORTANTLY ANY PRECIPITATION TRAINING GIVEN A DEEP SLY FLOW. THE               
GREATER THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE S-SE OF EXTREME              
SERN CO...BUT IT MIGHT MOVE INTO BACA COUNTY IF CELLS CAN HOLD                  
TOGETHER. INCREASED POPS ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO TO LIKELY FOR LATER             
TONIGHT. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FT MSL. METZE               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS LIFTING CLOSED LOW FROM             
CENTRAL NM AND THE 4 CORNERS REGION THROUGH CENTRAL CO...AND INTO NE            
CO/SW NE BY 00Z SUNDAY.  THIS BRINGS FCST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG              
QG FORCING BY SAT MORNING...SPREADING NORTHWARD QUICKLY DURING THE              
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.  ATMOS BECOMES CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AS                
COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION BY AFTN...SO SHOULD SEE SOME              
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK FAIRLY WARM              
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 9KFT...DROPPING             
TO 8KFT BY LATE AFTN. BEST LIFT ACCORDING TO 00Z RUNS WILL AFFECT CEN           
CO UNDER DEFORMATION BAND AND MID LEVEL TROWAL. HOWEVER...WITH                  
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...COULD SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS JUST              
ABOUT ANY OF THE MTS. FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS/ADJACENT INTERSTATE              
25 CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMPING UP IN THE MID TO                  
LATE MORNING AS H7 WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME EASTERLY AS H7 CLOSED LOW               
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FAR EASTERN PLAINS QUICKLY BECOME DRY SLOTTED BY               
MID/LATE MORNING THOUGH AS 90 KT UPPER JET CORE LIFTS NORTH INTO                
SE CO...SO COULD SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS LATE SAT                             
MORNING...BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTN.                
NAM/GFS HAVE THE FRONT POSITIONED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID                
AFTN...WITH AROUND 800 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.                
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW                   
QUICKLY MIXES OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT                       
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR           
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...HOWEVER              
LATEST RUNS APPEAR TO KEEP BEST SVR POTENTIAL JUST TO THE EAST AND              
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
OF COURSE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE                     
MOUNTAINS. NAM PAINTS A GENEROUS 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR SAT ACROSS              
ALL BUT THE SRN SANGRES (IN PROXIMITY OF DRY SLOT)...WITH AN                    
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SAT NIGHT.               
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                   
CEN/SW MTS UNDER DEFORMATION BAND ON SAT...WITH UP TO AN                        
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS SAT NIGHT. GFS              
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE...BUT WOULDNT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MTN                   
AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN CONVECTIVE                  
POTENTIAL. ALL IN ALL...STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL ADVISORY                   
EVENT. DEPENDING ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF DRY SLOT...PIKES PEAK AND                
THE WET MTS COULD ALSO SEE LOW END ADVISORY NUMBERS...THOUGH                    
BREVITY OF UPSLOPE MAY KEEP THEM JUST SHY. STILL SOME                           
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE POSITION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND UPPER                
LOW...WHICH COULD MAKE/BREAK THE SNOW AMOUNT FCST. SO WILL NOT                  
HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS JUST YET. WILL LET DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT                 
ANOTHER SET OF RUNS.                                                            
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN WITH SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY                  
WINDING DOWN.  TEMPS REBOUND NICELY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT                  
WEEK...THEN GFS BRINGS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS NRN CO/WY TUES                 
NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON                
TUES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION            
FOR THE MTS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR TUES                       
NIGHT/EARLY WED.  THIS COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS            
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH POTENTIAL ON FOR MID WEEK.  NO CHANGES            
MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUES. -KT                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
328 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST OUR N WITH PREVAILING LOW                  
LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND              
RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE MID-UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL GOMEX NEWD INTO              
THE SE STATES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER           
SE GA SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH ALMA OCCASIONAL REPORTING                 
VIS BELOW 1SM. EXPECT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER ENTIRE CWA NEXT                 
FEW HOURS WITH THE DENSE FOG MAINLY CONFINED IN INTERIOR SE GA.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION                  
WITH A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PINCHING OFF OVER SRN AL AND GA SAT-SUN.                
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENSURE A DEFINITE WARMING TREND FOR                   
MOST AREAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED              
THROUGH EARLY MORNING OVER SE GA WITH PATCHY FOG MOST OTHER AREAS.              
FOR MAX TEMPS PREFERRED A BLEND BUT MOSTLY LIKED THE MAV GUIDANCE               
AS MET VERIFYING A BIT TOO COOL. MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE INLAND                    
SECTIONS. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY ELY 10-15 MPH                
WINDS BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS IN AFTERNOON BUT LOWER THAN                      
PREVIOUS DAYS. TONIGHT...STRONGER HIGH PRES ALOFT WITH WEAKER                   
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SPELLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AREAS OF FOG                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR                
SKIES. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S. SAT...MORNING FOG DISSIPATES                 
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WITH                  
MID 80S INLAND...UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY                   
CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. LOWS CONTINUE TO               
BE MOSTLY MID 50S. SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES WITH WARM                   
TEMPS FROM MID 80S TO UPPER 70S AGAIN. WILL BE SEEING A                         
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDE DOWN THE E COAST THROUGH CAROLINAS                   
LATE IN THE DAY.                                                                
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT-THU. MODEL GUIDANCE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY`S              
RUN SHOWING BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM AND              
GFS SHOWING FRONT MOVING INTO SE GA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON WITH                    
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. FRONT PUSHES                     
THROUGH ALL THE CWA WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON NE FLOW THANKS TO                
1033 MB HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC. PRES GRADIENT WILL HAVE INCREASED                
MON WITH BREEZY CONDS DEVELOPING OVER ERN ZONES. HAVE MOVED UP                  
POPS TO MON AT 20% FOR PORTIONS OF SE GA AND NE FL AS ASSOCD                    
MOISTURE WITH FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SWD              
TUE-THU WITH NO MENTION OF POPS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS                      
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILL SEE TEMPO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND                
12Z DUE MAINLY TO VSBY. OTHERWISE VFR. EAST WINDS INCREASE                      
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN...WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS WILL               
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY                   
FOR SEAS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND DROP ON SUNDAY. A STRONG BACK               
DOOR FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST MONDAY AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SCA                
CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...BRIEF DURATIONS OF RH`S AOB 35% POSSIBLE TODAY AND SAT               
AFTN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN NE FL. OTHERWISE NO                    
MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE              
TO 15 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY WHEN                   
A BACK DOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  83  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SSI  74  58  76  57 /   0   0   0  10                                           
JAX  79  55  81  55 /  10  10  10  10                                           
SGJ  74  59  75  60 /  10  10   0  10                                           
GNV  83  53  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
OCF  83  55  83  55 /  10  10   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY            
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                   
     OFFSHORE.                                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS                
     EVENING FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-                 
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/PETERSON                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
940 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /TONIGHT/...                                                 
PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...DEPICTING CLOUDS/SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARD            
SHORE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED EAST OF NEW               
ENGLAND...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO GA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 18Z             
NAM12/WRF AND 0Z RUC40 SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH                
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT RAISE POPS. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE             
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY YET RAISE POPS IF NEEDED...ESP ACROSS SC              
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD              
COVER SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF PATCHY FOG.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
RECENT REPORTS FROM AREA BUOYS AND FROM THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH             
PILOT BOATS SUGGEST THAT SEAS ARE BUILDING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND              
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT 6 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY SLIP INTO                   
NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS...MOVED UP START TIME OF ONGOING               
SCAS FOR SC/GA NEARSHORE WATERS FROM NOON THU TO 2 AM THU.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z-24Z/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER                   
8Z...WHEN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AT KCHS...WHILE               
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK.               
THEN...AFTER 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER              
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TAFS INDICATE SHOWERS IN THE                
VICINITY UNTIL 9Z...WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL               
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL               
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY. THE                    
INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SWELL                   
SUBSIDES SATURDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF...                                                  
GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING E SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL               
COMPONENT OF TIDES...STILL CLOSE TO THE MARCH 19 NEW MOON...WILL                
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH               
TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WILL NEED TO ASSESS               
NEED FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THU...AS WAVES IN SURF ZONE COULD BE              
CLOSE TO 5 FT. THIS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AT             
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY THU AND THU NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY             
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY             
     FOR AMZ374.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPR                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
130 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST            
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS A WEST             
WIND IN ILLINOIS AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. WITH THIS WIND PATTERN                
ALOFT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A HIGH               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.              
THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL              
ADD THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FROM 11 TO 12 UTC. THIS IS THE TIME OF                 
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT              
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT A                  
SOUTHEAST WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WE USED THE NAM AND A LOCALLY            
RUN WRF MODEL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1100 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION FOR ZONES/GRIDS...                                                  
11AM...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AT LATE MRNG AS                
WINDS TURN NW AND TEMPS STEADY OUT.  COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL            
HOLD TEMPS WITHIN FEW DEG OF CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
HIGH PERS OVER NW IOWA SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS TONIGHT FOR SOMEHWAT                 
COOLER TEMPS. RETURN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ETC LKLY TO BEGIN LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. CHARACTER OF THAT RETURN REMAINS TO BE             
SEEN AND WILL TRIM/DELAY RETURN A LITTLE IN UPDATED GRIDS. FAIRLY               
MARKED DIFFERENCES IN GFS AND NAM IN GROWING AMPLITUDE OF EJECTING              
WESTERN TROUGH NEXT 48HRS IS ONE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. KL                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
650 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SPC            
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW              
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL              
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
650 AM CDT                                                                      
MID LVL S/WV TROF CONTINUES TO PLOW INTO WRN GRTLKS REGION THIS                 
MORNING...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU FCST AREA AT 12Z. BAND OF ELEVATED            
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 55 KT LLJ NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF             
FCST AREA AS 950-850 HPA FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH                 
APPROACH OF TROF...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL DVLPG GENERALLY            
ALONG/SOUTH OF A KVYS...KLOT...KGYY LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY PLUME/LLJ AXIS. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF                     
TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF KGYY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF PERIOD            
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...COLD FROPA HAS OCCURRED AT KRFD AND WILL BE INTO CHI                
AREA TERMINALS NEXT 1-2 HRS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN 1500-2000 FT RANGE             
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...THOUGH STRONG LLVL DRY ADVECTION DVLPG               
POST FRONTAL SHOULD CLR THIS OUT BY LATE MORNING. STRONG ISALLOBARIC            
GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT...SO WITH WSFT TO NW XPCT             
TO CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20 KT RANGE THIS MORNING.             
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY THIS AFTN/THIS EVE ALLOWING                 
WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY...GOING VRBL THIS EVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A              
BIT OF A LAKE BREEZE TOWARD EVE ALONG IL/IND LAKE MICH SHORE AS                 
GRADIENT RELAXES.                                                               
NEXT S/WV PROPAGATES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER                
ROUND OF WAA/UPGLIDE DVLPG ACROSS BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE TO SOUTH              
OF FCST AREA OVRNGT. 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS BOTH FOCUS PCPN SOUTH OF                  
TERMINALS WITH VFR CIG DVLPG. COULD SEE PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO                 
TERMINAL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR NORTH             
IS LOW ATTM.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
330 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
330 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON CONVECTION MAINLY THIS                         
MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM              
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOOD POTENTIAL. APOLOGIES FOR AN ABBREVIATED            
DISCUSSION DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.           
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSPPI RIVER WITH SPC             
RUC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS INDICATING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXMITY TO THE SFC FRONT WHERE LOW               
LEVEL DEW POINT POOLING IS OCCURRING. EXPECTING INCREASE COVERAGE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND ALSO INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT TOWARD 12Z AS                
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS            
UPPER JET STREAK CUTS THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE MID              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA                
TODAY...AND BY LATE MORNING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN               
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL               
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR FIRST FEW HOURS THIS                   
MORNING. FAST MOVING NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS               
UNDER CONTROL BUT COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RAIN OF                
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
HAVE MADE SOME REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH             
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN A MORE NORTHERLY              
POSITION OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER CHANCES OF PERIODIC                 
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE              
80 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. ALREADY HIGH RIVER            
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR ADDITONAL FLOODING GIVEN. WILL               
REINTRODUCE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE                     
TONIGHT...AND LIKELY SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE                         
88...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR                 
FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA.                                         
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                           
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1254 AM CDT                                                                     
VIGOROUS S/WV TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST              
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI            
TO ERN IA AT 05Z. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA...AND 0445Z ACARS SOUNDING             
OUT OF KRFD INDICATE 55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IN 930-850 HPA LAYER               
AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL TROF/FRONT. SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP LAPSE              
RATES IN THIS LAYER...THOUGH A BIT OF A CAP NOTED AROUND 670 MB.                
ISOLATED WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE            
IN THIS REGION OF MOIST/WAA ACROSS FAR NRN IL...THOUGH APPEARS THEY             
ARE FIGHTING CAP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT COOLING OF MID/UPR LVLS             
WITH APPROACH OF S/WV EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED                
CAPE INCREASING TO 550-650 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED 875-900 HPA. THIS             
ALONG WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD BE                 
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TRW AS BOUNDARY ADVANCES ACROSS               
FCST IL. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION IN            
SWRN WI AND SRN IA...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS              
ERN IA. GIVEN STRONG FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY SEE SOME              
GUSTS IN 40 KT RANGE WITH TSTMS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN             
MARGINAL CAPE PROFILES. THUS WILL MAINTAIN TS IN TERMINALS THIS                 
MORNING...MAINLY DURG 09-13Z PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES            
THRU. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH                
STRONG LLVL DRYING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD DECREASE CLOUDS FAIRLY                   
RAPIDLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.           
STRONG SW LLVL WIND FIELD IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT            
RESULTING IN GUSTY 20-30 KT WINDS ATTM. WILL SEE GRADIENT DECREASE              
JUST A BIT WITHIN TROF AXIS TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN WSHFT TO NWLY                 
DIRECTION. SOME GUSTINESS AS SFC PRES RISE BUILDS IN EARLY                      
MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTN AS WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS               
IN. DVLPMNT OF NE WINDS OFF LAKE A GOOD PROBABILITY VERY LATE                   
AFTN/EARLY EVE AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE. NEXT S/WV AND ELEVATED               
PCPN THREAT BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT WITH NEXT FCST                    
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS.                
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
745 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...WARM SECTOR AIR OVER TAF ROUTES WITH SCT             
AC AND CI OVR INDIANA WHILE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR WRM FNT                   
ACRS SRN GRTLKS. PATCHY MID CLOUD EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT            
MEANS VFR TO CONTINUE TIL DAYBREAK WHILE GUSTY WINDS AT SUNSET TODAY            
BECOME STEADY OVRNGT. MODELS TIMING OF CDFNT THU FAIRLY SIMILAR AND             
APPEARS BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO AND DURING FROPA SO HAVE             
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST TIL THEN. EXPECT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY WITH SHRA            
AND CB DURING CDFNT PASSAGE AND TREND TO MVFR CIGS OVC020 IN COLD               
AIR BEHIND FNT. INCREASED STABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO END OF TSHRA                 
SHORTLY AFT FROPA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN                
PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED PRECIP TIMING ACCORDINGLY.  HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN MOST                 
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE AS S/W OVER S. MO AND N. AR MOVES             
INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE LLJ.  THE              
MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING S/W IS FCST TO               
MOVE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES REGION SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED            
AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION             
OVERTOP MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TOMORROW.  MODEL CONSENSUS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODEST LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL             
WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.                                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO AREA BY THURS MORNING AND REMAINS QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU SATURDAY ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS.               
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER                
OCCASL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL LIFTING             
IN REGION.  PWATS VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES              
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS AS MSTR              
TRANSPORT MECHANISM...THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN                 
AMOUNTS.  HPC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ROUGHLY 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATING            
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS             
IN ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 48-60 HRS.  AT THIS TIME...1 TO 2 INCH            
AMTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO.  WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO             
INCREASE AWARENESS ABOUT THE WATER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                  
ANYTHING ELSE WHEN/IF FOCUS FOR LIFT BECAUSE MORE APPARENT.  HAVE               
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN THEM IN A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AS              
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE            
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                                               
LONG TERM...AFT 12Z ON MARCH 24...CONSENSUS IS WARM AND OFTEN WET               
WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND FRONT WEAVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS AREA.               
HOWEVER JUST HOW THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH AREA                  
INTERACT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW WARM AND HOW WET WE            
GET. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NCEP GUIDANCE BECAUSE DONT HAVE A              
BETTER IDEA...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
COULD SEE A FEW POP UP RW`S OR POSSIBLY TRW`S THIS AFT AS TAF SITES             
ARE NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                
REVEALING SLGT INSTABILITY AND RUC40 SHOWING S/W MOVING E ACRS SRN              
IL WHICH WL MOV ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC              
DURING THE EVE AS S/W ACRS NERN OK...PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
MODELS...APPROACHES. BEST CHC SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER...AS CD             
FNT APPROACHES FM THE NW...AND MODEL TIME SECS SHOW MOIST DEEPENING             
AND DECENT UVM AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE JUST INTO THE VFR CAT. SHOULD START TO             
SEE THE CLDS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE CD FNT            
APPROACHES. FINALLY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS             
SOUNDINGS FAVOR PLNTY OF MIXING. EXPECT THE MIXING TO PUT AN END TO             
THE HAZE. WINDS WL STAY UP PLNTY ENOUGH TNGT TO AVOID FOG.                      
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SMITH/JK                                                               
AVIATION...TUCEK                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
924 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY              
FOR THE KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COUNTIES UNTIL 11 AM MDT/                 
NOON CDT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TO TAKE A LITTLE                  
LONGER TO BREAK WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE                 
OBSERVATIONS STILL AT A QUARTER OF A MILE REPORTED AT SOME                      
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GOODLAND...COLBY AND MCCOOK. EXPECT FOG TO                  
LIFT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.                  
WILL BE WATCHING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSELY WHICH MAY BE                   
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                                        
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMMERS                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1038 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT HAD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF               
HIGHWAY 50 AT MID-MORNING...WITH THE LATEST NAM AND RUC SUGGESTING              
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH              
OF EARLY MORNING GRID PACKAGE...SO HAVE REFLECTED THE CHANGES IN                
THE LATEST GRID/FORECAST UPDATE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR                  
THIS AFTERNOON...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON DIURNAL HEATING (IE. CLOUD                
TRENDS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE SOME               
HOLES INTO MIDDAY...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO ENCROACH SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
BOUNDARY LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL ML                 
CAPES OF AROUND 1800 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO LITTLE CHANGE                
TO THE GOING POP FORECAST AND FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. BETTER CHANCES              
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING LATE THIS                    
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TSRA CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND AND ALSO TEMPS.                                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN KS AT              
THIS TIME. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA FINALLY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG              
THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT               
HELPING TO GET ELEVATED STORMS GOING.  QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR                
SOUTH /IF AT ALL/  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT LATER            
THIS MORNING. SOME PRESSURE RISES STILL NOTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO            
PREFER THE NAM-WRF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT GENERALLY ALONG AN EMP-HUT             
LINE BEFORE IT STALL.  WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OUT             
IS THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR            
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ECHOES. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO              
BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN TSRA CHANCE WILL BE THIS              
AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND                      
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K LAYER WILL STEEPEN LAPSE                 
RATES ENOUGH FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS            
MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT            
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR               
AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER AREAS WITH                 
SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTH                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS BUT DAY SHIFT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BETTER             
DEFINE THIS ONCE BOUNDARY DECIDES TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS.                
WILL RAISE MAX TEMPS IN SOUTHERN KS AS BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF            
THIS AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.                         
TONIGHT:                                                                        
BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH                
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SO EXPECT             
SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY BUT PROBABLY DIMINISHING                  
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LIFT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME TRANING STORMS IN              
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SO FLOODING THREAT WILL DEFINATELY HAVE TO              
BE WATCHED.                                                                     
FRI-FRI NIGHT:                                                                  
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION             
FOR FRI.  MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON MID LEVEL IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL                  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS             
AS ANY WEAK IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT               
TSRA CHANCE TO BE WIDESPREAD.                                                   
BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN               
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL STILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW              
AS PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IN LATER RUNS WILL BETTER DEFINE                   
HIGHEST POP AREAS.                                                              
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS BOUNDARY REMAINS               
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY ON SAT FOR BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AGAIN             
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN AND MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE              
AREA UNTIL SUN EVENING. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY            
RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
SEVERE THREAT ON SAT AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAVORABLE BUT INSTABILITY             
LOOKS MODEST.                                                                   
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                               
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS             
FINALLY MOVE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY             
WILL BE A DAY TO DRY OUT WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LAYERS. A                 
RATHER RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON WED FOR ANOTHER              
POSSIBLE ROUND OF CONVECTION.                                                   
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    74  59  72  58 /  50  60  40  40                                
HUTCHINSON      70  58  72  57 /  40  50  40  40                                
NEWTON          71  58  71  57 /  50  60  40  40                                
ELDORADO        73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  60  73  59 /  60  60  40  40                                
RUSSELL         61  51  71  53 /  20  30  40  40                                
GREAT BEND      64  53  71  55 /  30  40  40  40                                
SALINA          63  52  69  54 /  30  50  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       67  56  71  56 /  40  50  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     76  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
CHANUTE         74  60  72  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
IOLA            73  59  72  58 /  60  60  40  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    74  61  73  59 /  60  60  40  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-083-092>096-                  
098>100.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
440 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.                                                
INTERESTING SET UP TODAY WITH SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD                   
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD                 
ELEVATED LIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC BNDRY BY MIDDAY ALONG OR              
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OPTIMUM ELEVATED LIFT WITH FAIRLY GOOD             
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN            
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS. NO             
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED YET...BUT BEARS WATCHING IN 12Z RUN. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES EXCEEDINGLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RUNNING NEARLY            
250% OF NORMAL! THIS HIGH WATER CONTENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND              
AND DOES NOT REALLY GET MODIFIED TO ANY GREAT EXTENT UNTIL UPPER                
SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH               
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.                                                        
SETUP FOR SEVERE TODAY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                      
WARMFRONT. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION             
TO FRONTAL AREA OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARMER AND THE                  
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE EVEN GREATER. SHEAR SEEMS TO BE                 
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY AS WELL.                                  
TEMPERATURES IN TURN A REAL CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TO              
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED NAM CLOSELY WITH IT`S SFC                 
TEMPERATURE FCST. THUS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE              
LOWER 70S SOUTH.                                                                
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER WAITING             
FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO EJECT OUT OF MEAN WESTERN TROF POSITION. THIS              
COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER                  
CHANCE APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM                 
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS.                                                
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST NOT CHANGED MUCH AS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO              
ADD MUCH DETAIL OR FIND REASONS TO MAKE CHANGES IN SUCH AN UNSETTLED            
PATTERN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
358 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HELPED PUSH A                   
COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF SW KS. THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM STRETCHED                
FROM NORTH OF HUGOTON TO HUTCHINSON. SFC TEMPS WERE VERY BALMY                  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT(71 AT BUFFALO,OK AND 65 AT LIBERAL). THE SFC                 
DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AN                          
UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. 500MB                    
TEMPS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE WARMER THAN THE MODELS WERE                         
FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO. IN FACT THE NAM HAS 500MB TEMPS                     
AROUND -13C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO                 
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60SF ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS. A LARGE AREA                
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING NE INTO NM AND WEST TX.                   
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS TODAY...THE                    
LOCATION OF SFC BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF                      
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE NAM/GFS AND SOME OF THE RUC                 
MEMBERS SURGE THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY TO A GCK TO HAYS                
LINE. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RUC13 SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THIS               
MODEL KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALL DAY. WITH BROKEN MID                
TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW... TEMPS WILL STAY IN                 
THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BUT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OK STATE LINE               
COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.                                                      
I EXPECT THE SFC DRYLINE TO STRETCH FROM DALHART TO CARLSBAD,NM                 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT CLOSE TO                
DALHART. FAIRLY WEAK CAPPING...SOME ELEVATED HEATING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...      
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE                    
INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LOCAL POOLING                 
OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SFC BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG             
FROM P28 TO ENGLEWOOD. AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA...A FEW OF                 
THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE                       
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. BUT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR                   
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. BUT AS WE HAVE                  
SEEN IN THE RECENT PAST...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPES                  
AROUND 1000 J/KG CAN BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.                               
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO                
TONIGHT. BUT THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NE                        
BY FRIDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS                      
ON SATURDAY. SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR FRIDAY FOR CONSISTENCY               
SAKE AND SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.                                       
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING EXTENDED.  BOTH THE UKMET AND             
GFS BRING AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM UP FROM SOUTHERN BAHA CALIFORNIA TO               
WESTERN KANSAS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE WE HAVE 40               
POPS GOING NOW.  THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER SYSTEM BEARS OUT.  TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND IN              
LINE WITH SURROUNDING WFO GRIDS.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM...PERHAPS            
WITH 80S SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA.  LEFT TUES MAX T`S ALONE FOR NOW...AS            
OUR SW HAS MID 70S GOING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...STRATUS WILL LIKELY             
FORM AT DDC AND GCK IN THE 012 TO 015 FEET RANGE BY 11Z THIS                    
MORNING.  DO NOT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LINGER MUCH BEYOND 15-16Z.               
ALSO...FOG WITH VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM RANGE WILL FORM AT DDC...GCK AND             
HYS AND LAST THROUGH 15Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  68  53  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
GCK  64  45  72  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
EHA  71  47  71  53 /  20  20  20  20                                           
LBL  73  51  71  56 /  20  30  20  20                                           
HYS  61  48  72  55 /  20  20  20  20                                           
P28  76  59  70  61 /  30  30  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN24/12                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CUT OFF LOW             
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE             
UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.             
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON FINER DETAILS. EVEN AS                
EARLY AS TODAY...NAM BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER               
THE AREA/WHEREAS GFS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANYTHING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
INCONCLUSIVE...SINCE JUST SEE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DEEP                  
TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LITTLE TO GO ON WILL PLAY            
THE PERCENTAGES AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT RELIABLE RUC CEILING            
FORECAST SHOWS 2KFT BROKEN DECK OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH            
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS A RESULT.              
FRIDAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...THOUGH MODELS SWITCH PLACES WITH              
GFS WET AND NAM DRY. IT DOES APPEAR THE AREA WILL COME UNDER                    
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH DEVELOPS FRIDAY                    
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE MIDWEST. SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE             
SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA. NONETHELESS...ISC CONSTRAINTS WILL                 
DICTATE LOW CHANCE POPS. THEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MAIN LOW               
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH LENDS LITTLE TO             
NO CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGES               
GIVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCES. THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH              
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR                
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AT SDF AND LEX. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE             
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION                  
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AT BWG             
OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS DECENT SOUTHERLY               
WINDS AT 1500FT (25KT) WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.             
ALSO NOTED THAT A 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PRESENT EVEN            
NOW WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBS.                                                
SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED            
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS LEX AND SDF. CEILINGS WILL STAY             
VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXCEPT UNDERNEATH ANY LOCAL SHOWERS. JSD                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFY CNVCTN AT THIS           
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
902 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. ADDED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE POP FOR SW INDIANA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF               
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER                 
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO/EASTERN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS            
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH THE MODELS KEEP QUASI                     
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE                 
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI              
OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE A SE MOVEMENT TO ANY              
ORGANIZED MCS THAT DEVELOPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH THE                 
ENTIRE PERIOD...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT.                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK DOWN TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS                 
RIGHT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE AREA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE                
WEAKENING AND FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. WITH THE AIRMASS                 
THOROUGHLY WORKED OVER...AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE             
AREA...SEE LITTLE REASON TO HAVE MUCH POP IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.             
WILL HOWEVER...INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT            
TO FIT IN TO SOME DEGREE WITH NEIGHBORS.                                        
OVERNIGHT...THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL             
DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE              
REGION. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST              
THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE GFS BRINGS INTO OUR WEST JUST BEFORE 12Z.                 
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN RAMP UP TO               
50-60 POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR             
A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IF IT IS AS FOCUSED AS TODAYS                      
CONVECTION HAS BEEN...SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET WET. THEREFORE WILL NOT            
GO HIGHER THAN 60S FOR NOW.  THOSE 60S WILL BE IN THE NORTH WHERE               
THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF. THE NAM IS NOT SURE            
ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING WET.                                           
MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST...SO            
WILL LEAVE A 20-30 POP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE               
FRONT RE-LOCATES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP THE FOCUS               
FOR CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO REGENERATE            
CONVECTION ALL OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS THE LONE MODEL             
THAT DOES NOT BUILD A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL              
THEREFORE IGNORE ITS SOLUTION FOR NOW.                                          
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE GLORIOUS WITH TEMPS PUSHING 80 EACH                 
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                                                  
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVEN THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO DRAG SOME                 
REMNANT OF THE SW U.S. CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY              
OR TUESDAY. WILL THROW IN 20-30 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST              
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK             
DRY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA ON             
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE                  
ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN            
THE 50S OR LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOMORROW WHERE THE                  
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CERTAIN               
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
953 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL UPDATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO                   
ACROSS PORTIONS OR THE NORTHERN AREA AROUND SDF AND LEX...NOT SO                
MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                                      
-SCHOTT                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
EVENING UPDATE...                                                               
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                               
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
729 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN...LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ANYWHERE ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA. EVIDENT TREND ON THE VIS SAT AND REGIONAL RADARS                 
THAT SLOW AND STEADY CLEARING OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE                     
DAY...WITH BEST OMEGAS AND ANY INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE..WITH THINNING OF               
THE THICK CI FROM EARLIER STORMS. RUC AND 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM               
LEADS ME TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND TO END ANYWHERE ALONG              
OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME                 
LESSENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME CLEARING NOW                          
EXPECTED..WILL MONITOR FOR ANY HINT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.               
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z TAFS)...                                              
GRADUAL CLEARING APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE LATEST VIS SAT                 
LOOP...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS TO EFFECT                              
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T REACH THE 20 KNOTS GREATER THAN SFC                
WINDS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT 20 TO 25 KTS AROUND 1500 TO                  
2000 FEET LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAFS              
SITES LOOKS AS A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME SCATTERED                   
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE                   
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF SDF AND LEX AFTER 14 TO 18Z...WITH SHRA                   
POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 22Z.                                                      
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR TNGT AND FRI.            
CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EWD OVER SERN CANADA JUST N OF GRT               
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROF ACRS GRT LAKES HELPED CREATE SHWR ACTIVITY                
OVER OH VALLEY WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST WARM                      
ADVECTION. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTN...BUT AXIS             
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL ACTIVE OVER SRN IL INTO FAR NWRN KY.                   
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHWRS COULD PUSH BACK                
INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA TNGT...SO WILL CONT WITH CHC/SCT PRECIP.            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT SO STILL A FEW                
RUMBLES OF THUNDER PSBL TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIF CNVCTN AT THIS            
TIME.                                                                           
FLOW PTRN PROGGED TO REMAIN WESTERLY ON FRI AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
REMAINS LUST TO OUR NORTH. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND NAM-WRF ARE FCSTG                
AREA OF INCREASING VERT MOTION AND PRECIP COMING OUT OF THE SRN                 
PLAINS TNGT (AHEAD OF DEEP SWRN U.S. UPR LOW) AND INTO MID MS VALLEY            
FRI MRNG BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY FRI AFTN AND EVNG.             
THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BACK ACRS PARTS OF CNTRL             
KY AND S-CNTRL IN FRI AFTN/EVNG. AGAIN INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT                 
EMBEDDED CNVCTN STILL EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME                    
TRAINING PRECIP ELEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TOP OF FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER OH VALLEY.                                                
CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP THIS AFTN HAVE KEPT TEMPS LOWER ACRS NRN HALF             
OF FCST AREA. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD NOT FALL THAT FAR...AND WILL FCST               
MINS AT OR ABV GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE CASE LAST NGT/THIS MRNG. ON             
FRI...CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS ACRS THE NORTH AGAIN POSE A               
TEMP FCST CHALLENGE. MAV AND FWC BASED MOS SHOWING LOWER HI TEMPS               
THAN MET. GFS AND NAM-WRF MODEL SFC TEMPS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR             
OWN CLOUD AND PRECIP FCST. GIVEN POP/CLOUD FCST IN GRIDS FOR FRI...             
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. IF PRECIP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE            
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OR CLOUDS ARE LESS DENSE...THEN HI TEMP VALUES              
WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHER MET VALUES ON FRI.                                     
TWF                                                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND HAS SOME SUPPORT            
FROM THE UKMET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ECMWF FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. IN            
THE EARLY PERIODS NAM SUPPORTS SOME SUPPORT FOR HIGHER RH ALONG THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT..                                             
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND             
CONSIDERABLY LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE SOUTHERLY             
BREEZES WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE                        
REGION...THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.                                
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SHOWERS              
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE RAIN             
AND CLOUDS DECREASING WILL AFFECT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET.               
WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES A LITTLE COOLER AS             
THIS AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. REST OF AREA SHOULD GET WELL               
INTO THE 70S. ON SUNDAY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS COULD TOP 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS.                           
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                      
ON MONDAY CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL BE              
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO                    
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED STORMS                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH                 
THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN HPC              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                          
SCHOLZ                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                          
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STREAM EWD THRU THE AFTN ALONG AND                 
EITHER SIDE OF OH RIVER. STILL A CONVECTIVE THREAT BUT CG LIGHTNING             
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. KLVX VWP PROFILE SHOWS             
UNIFORM SWLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED              
WITH HEIGHT...THUS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT                 
HAZARD. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT GENERALLY             
CIGS EXPECTED ABOVE 3KFT (VFR) DURING FCST PD.                                  
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR N PULLS OUT...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCT LATE                
TNGT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE MODELS SHOW NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND              
PRECIP ARRIVING FRI AFTN.                                                       
TWF                                                                             
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AREA MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYERED MOISTURE THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE COLUMN. SFC OBS/SATL DATA CONFIRMS SCT-BKN                          
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACRS FORECAST AREA THIS LATE MORNING BUT THE                
CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR TO BE BREAKING AND THINNING. THEREFORE EXPECT              
SKY CONDITION WILL AVERAGE PTSUNNY DURING THE AFTN. INSOLATION                  
SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FCSTD VALUES RANGING                 
FROM M60S ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO M70S OVER PIEDMONT...BUT OF                 
COURSE COOLER WHERE FLOW IS ONSHORE. LTL IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED TO               
FCST ATTM BUT UPDATED FCST TO REFRESH PRODUCTS.                                 
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
DECIDED TO ADD SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WTRS FROM SMITH POINT                 
TO NEW POINT COMFORT...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT WAVES. RUC                
AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST INCRSG SFC WINDS AFTER 18Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW               
AROUND 15 KT AT SFC UNDER WEAK INVERSION WITH 25-30 KTS ABOVE                   
INVERSION. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS DOWN TO SFC.               
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT SO                   
OPTED NOT TO GO FOR SCA FOR SOUTHERN BAY BUT STEADY 15 KT. ON CSTL              
WTRS...EXPECT 15-20 KT SOUTH WINDS FROM FENWICK DOWN TO PARRAMORE               
WITH LONGER FETCH BUILDING SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA AFTER 2 PM.                     
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT/SAT                 
NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS                             
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH. THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH                
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 513 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD               
FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST                 
REGIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONERN TODAY WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER                
EXTENT (DEPTH) AND THUS IMPACT ON TEMPS.                                        
GFS/NAM ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE ACCORD IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH                   
TONIGHT). BOTH INDICATE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE MASON-              
DIXON LINE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED AS THE              
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ENCOUNTERS A ZONAL/FLAT UPPER                  
RIDGE. PRE-FRONTAL FORCING/MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT FOR POPS                    
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. AS FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW               
VEERS TOWARD THE S-SW RESULTING IN MORE APPRECIABLE WARMING (AND                
RELATIVE DRYING) WITHING THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. STILL EXPECT                    
PERIODIC WAVES OF HIGHER BASED CLOUDS IN THE AFTN AS WE GET INTO                
THE WARM SECTOR...THUS HAVE WORDED PARTLY SUNNY. BASED ON RECENT                
TRENDS (YDAY)...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS TODAY FOR               
HIGH TEMPS. THIS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED                       
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN (ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH THE LATE MARCH               
SUN ANGLE).                                                                     
TONIGHT...FRONT DIPS INTO NRN VA AND THE NRN PTN OF THE DELMARVA.               
HAVE INCLUDED LOW (30-40%) POPS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA                   
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FLATTENING UPPER              
FLOW (AND NEGLIGIBLE STRAIGHT UPPER JET FORCING)...DYNAMICS AND THUS            
MOISTURE DEPTHS REMAIN LACKING. S OF FVX-RIC-MFV...MOISTURE IS                  
JUST TOO SHALLOW (PARTICULARLY IN LOW LEVELS) FOR POPS.                         
FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS IS TOO                   
QUICK WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST-                 
OH VLY-MID ATLC REGION. SIDING MORE TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF BLEND...                 
EXPECT A NW-SE DRAPED SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...             
WITH THE FRONT TAKING ON THE TYPICAL "SAG" EAST TOWARD THE COOLER               
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT EXPECT A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE...          
I.E. AROUND 80/LOWER 80S INLAND TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE LOWER ERN                
SHORE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LOW POPS OVER              
THE N-NE ZONES ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.                       
SATURDAY...GFS IS MUCH COOLER WITH THE LOWER LEVELS COMPARED TO                 
THE OTHER MODELS...BASICALLY A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MODEL BEING TOO              
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIAL UPPER SHORTWAVE/WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE         
STATIONARY FRONT. GFS (MAV) MOS GUIDANCE IN FACT IS SOME 20+                    
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS OVER INLAND LOCALES COMPARED TO THE              
NAM (MET) GUIDANCE! FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM/          
ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT DROP THE FRONT S OF THE LOWER DELMARVA                   
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON THESE PROJECTIONS...EXPECT ANOTHER              
DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SW (80-85) TO                  
AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE (LOW-MID                
50S).                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/ECWMF TRENDS...AND WITH THE LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SAT-SUN...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO                
THE FCSTS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM              
THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE (OFFSHORE) ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR A                    
COOLER DAY OVER THE NERN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH AGAIN                   
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MUCH MILDER AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SW. TOWARD               
PETERSBURG/FARMVILLE/SOUTH HILL.                                                
AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE MVFR CIGS              
NORTH AND WEST...VFR SOUTH. FLOW TURNS TO S OR SW LATER TODAY WITH              
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BY AFTN...AND MAINLY VFR CONDS. MVFR CIGS MAY            
HANG TOUGH ON THE ERN SHORE THRU 16-18Z. CONTINUED VFR TONIGHT AS               
MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.                                
MARINE...GRADIENT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.                
CHILLY BAY WATERS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX THESE               
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC...SO OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE BAY &                
SOUND BELOW SMALL CRAFT (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE LATER THIS AFTN).            
ON COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW (NEAR 20 KTS BY AFTN)             
WILL LIKELY BRING SEAS TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (5 FT                 
WAVES OFFSHORE) N OF PARRAMORE ISL...FROM LATER IN THE AFTN THROUGH             
ERLY MRNG THU.  DIFFICULT FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BACKDOOR COLD               
FRONT SAT/SAT NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET (GFS IS               
OUTLIER)...KEEPING SW FLOW SRN ZONES ON SAT...ELY FLOW ACRS THE                 
NORTH.  THEN...FRONT CLEARS ENTIRE MARINE AREA SAT NGT/SUN...WITH               
NNE FLOW AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.                      
FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SE TO S FLOW THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY                        
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY AFTN FOR MUCH OF INLAND VA.               
HOWEVER...NOT REALLY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO RH VALUES DO NOT DROP OFF              
THAT MUCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT 35-45% AT THE DRIEST.             
FARTHER EAST...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MIXING                  
SOMEWHAT SO WINDS LIKELY STAY MORE FROM DUE SOUTH AT 15 KTS OR LESS.            
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT              
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN/FOSTER                                               
</pre> md                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS              
THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THIS FAST FLOW...SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST             
IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT/WRN ND. RADARS                
SHOW DECENT COVERAGE OF ECHOES ACROSS ND/SRN MANITOBA ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBS THAT HAVE                   
INDICATED -SHRA IN NRN ND/SE SASKATCHEWAN/SRN MANITOBA TODAY. WELL              
TO THE W... SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES 2-3 DAYS               
AGO OVER THE W COAST AND BECAME A MID LEVEL LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST            
S OF AZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE A BIT             
AS IT MOVES TO UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR SAT MORNING. WITH AIRMASS                 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RELATIVELY DRY PER 12Z KBIS/KINL                 
SOUNDINGS...IT BECOMES THE TYPICAL QUESTION OF WHETHER FORCING WILL             
BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE DRY COLUMN TO ALLOW PCPN TO REACH THE              
SFC. BEST COMBINATION OF LOW CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND ASCENT              
ON THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES PASSES ACROSS THE NRN FCST AREA...BUT             
ANOTHER AREA OF MOIST ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA             
AS WELL. THE NRN AREA WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE PCPN AS             
IT WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF STRENGTHENING JET ASSOCIATED WITH            
SHORTWAVE. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER FORCING IS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME               
THE DRY AIR...BUT GIVEN MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO BE                   
STRONGER...WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE N TONIGHT. NAM/GFS            
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID...AND SFC TEMPS SHOULD              
STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO PREVENT FZRA. OVER THE ERN FCST                     
AREA...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO               
THE S MAY SLIP INTO THAT AREA (NOTE SATURATED PROFILE ON 12Z KDVN               
SOUNDING). WILL THUS ALSO INTRODUCE CHC POPS OVER THE E AS WELL.                
WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE NCNTRL/E EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE...WITH              
MODELS INDICATING AGGRESSIVE DRYING THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN SAT IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE...WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT NICELY FROM             
W TO E DURING THE DAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA                 
DURING THE AFTN...LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE THE RULE BY MID/LATE AFTN              
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST               
SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE INTERIOR.                    
.LONG TERM(SAT NIGHT THROUGH THU)                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE SUN INTO MON AND                
AGAIN BY WED/THU.                                                               
SAT NIGHT...WITH THE SFC RDG...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY                  
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA(PWAT AOB 0.25 INCH) AND LIGHT WINDS              
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS                
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND...A BIT             
BLO GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SE                 
DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE FAR WEST COULD BRING CLIMBING TEMPS BEFORE                 
SUNRISE.                                                                        
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING A                 
SHRTWV...REMNANTS OF THE BAHA/SW US CLOSED LOW...INTO THE WRN GREAT             
LAKES. THE UKMET WAS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS               
AND THE WEAKER/FASTER CANADIAN GLOBAL GEM. FCST GENERALLY LEANED                
TOWARD THE GFS. INITIAL BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP WITH                   
STRONG WAA AS THE 925-850 MB THETA-E RDG ARC INTO W UPR MI AND                  
SPREAD E LATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORCING MOVES IN TOWARD 06Z/MON.            
EVEN THOUGH SHRTWV PATH WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE WRN CWA...DECENT                
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV SPREADS ACRS UPPER MI...SUPPORTING GOING                
LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...STRONG SRLY                
FLOW(900-850 MB WINDS AOA 40 KT) BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE                
AREA MAY PUSH 900-850 MB DEWPOINTS INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE. 900 MB               
ELEVATED CAPE INTO THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE WILL DECENT CHANCE FOR                
TSTMS. EVEN WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE...THE                      
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT GENERAL PCPN AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN AN            
A HALF INCH.                                                                    
MON...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO END OVER THE WEST EARLY AND E BY AFTERNOON            
AS THE SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH AND SHRTWV RDGING/QVECTOR DIV BUILD               
IN. SOME SUNSHINE WITH WRLY FLOW AND 900-925 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 10C             
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 60 OR THE LOW 60S...CLOSE TO              
RECORD HIGHS. FOR NOW...KEPT TEMPS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...AT OR                  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF READINGS                  
ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER IF A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.                  
TUE-FRI...MDLS SUGGEST ANOTHER WRN CONUS TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE              
CNTRL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP THOUGH             
BY LATE IN THE WEEK IN HANDLING THE TROF. THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND                   
ENSEMBLE ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A SHRTWV AND SFC                      
TROF/FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL LOW              
LINGERS TO THE NW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROF TO THE WEST. EVEN WITH              
THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES STILL SEEM WARRANTED GIVEN            
POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE IN WITH DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON(SHORT TERM)                                                             
JLB(LONG TERM)                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST               
AREA...AND NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI.             
CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS             
VIEWED ON 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 750-800MB) PER 12Z RUC. ASCENT SLACKENS             
DURING THE AFTN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT SOME LATER IN               
THE AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS...12Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS AND MORNING TAMDAR             
SOUNDING FROM KSAW SUPPORT RAISING HIGH TEMPS. KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS              
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F IF MIXED LAYER BUILDS TO               
850MB WHILE KSAW SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S. RAISED                 
HIGHS TO THE LWR END OF THOSE VALUES GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. TEMPS              
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER LIGHT SRLY                 
FLOW...AND THE COOLING SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF THE ERN FCST                 
AREA. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR EXCEPT FOR AREAS             
E OF MARQUETTE AS SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THRU THE AFTN TO               
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT THERE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT)...                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE            
ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA.            
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES                
THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB              
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN                 
ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO                   
850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE            
WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN                
FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD              
ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE              
AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING                  
EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE               
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD                  
PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS               
LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH                
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES              
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE              
AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW             
MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER             
TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                     
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN                      
INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC...              
A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR                 
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT                
WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF                     
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS              
BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN TONIGHT.           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN             
CONUS/SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES                  
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. NEXT SHORTWAVE             
IN THE FAST FLOW IS OVER NW ND. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE            
WERE SPREADING ACROSS NRN MN...AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD              
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN. RADARS SHOW A DECENT AREA OF                  
RETURNS ACROSS FAR NE ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SFC OBS THAT                   
REPORT VSBY ARE SPARSE IN THAT AREA...SO DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH             
PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IN THE LAST FEW HRS...A COUPLE           
OF OBS IN SRN MANITOBA HAVE REPORTED 1-4SM IN -SN. WELL TO THE                  
W...SHORTWAVE THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE WESTERLIES A DAY OR TWO AGO               
OVER THE W COAST HAS CLOSED OFF INTO A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST S             
OF CA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF INTEREST TO FCST HERE LATE IN THE                 
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT GETS KICKED NE BY NEXT TROF APPROACHING THE W            
COAST.                                                                          
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE E...CROSSING UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR                
BTWN 03Z-09Z. BASED ON THE DARKENING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...             
THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE THAN THE WEAKER NAM. LATEST            
RUC AND 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT THE GFS. OVERLAP OF                  
MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
(CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 20MB) ON THE 290K SFC (AROUND                 
700MB) LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE PRESENT IN NE                 
ND/NW MN AND SRN MANITOBA. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED              
FARTHER S...BUT AIRMASS IS DRIER THERE. LATEST RUC IS VERY SIMILAR              
TO THE GFS WITH REGARD TO PROGRESSION OF QVECTOR                                
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THRU 06Z. FORCING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS            
TO SHIFT THRU NE MN BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UPPER MI/LAKE                
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...THE                     
WEAKENING FORCING SUGGESTS PCPN THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM WILL TEND            
TO DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ON THE            
OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE            
MAY NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS MODELS INDICATE. SO...SITUATION IS                    
CERTAINLY STILL WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS OVER NW LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. FCST WETBULB ZERO PROFILES                    
INDICATE ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS WILL BE SNOW.                                     
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE...CANADIAN/GFS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND               
850MB ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA. SO THERE                
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.                  
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID               
50S. HOWEVER...SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER NEAR AND                   
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE            
SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND OVER THE NCNTRL MID/LATE AFTN AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER WINDS SLACKEN. FROM MUNISING EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT            
THRU THE DAY TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.                                
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
CONTINUITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS POOR CURRENTLY MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL             
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW ALONG CANADA/UNITED STATES BORDER. IN RECENT            
MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF SHORE OF BRITISH               
COLUMBIA WAS TO MOVE EAST AND ARRIVE OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES FRI              
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ALSO...THE WAVE WAS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT            
CAME EAST. NOW...A TREND IS EMERGING THAT RESULTS IN STRONGER WAVE              
NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL SAT. NAM MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS IDEA WHILE            
UKMET/GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE WEAKER. SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH                     
DIVERGENCE FM RRQ OF H3 OVR ONTARIO SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE MID             
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS FM GFS AND EVEN NAM ARE VERY DRY BLO H85            
SO HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS            
AND LIGHT WINDS SO LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AT THE SFC...RIDGE                   
DRIFTING OVER UPR LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT            
INTO SUN. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH DEPARTS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH              
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS FEASIBLE THAT SAT NIGHT WILL BE                
THE LAST ONE FOR A WHILE WITH A GOOD PORTION OF CWA EXPERIENCING MIN            
TEMPS BLO FREEZING.                                                             
UPR LOW OVR SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO PLAINS SUN AND LIFTS TOWARD UPR               
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
HERE. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH TROUGH EJECTION AND WAS NOT PREFERRED             
DUE TO EVEN STRONGER KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELLING INTO WEST               
COAST AS EARLY AS SUN. LARGE AREA OF H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION...               
40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS ECLIPSING AN INCH (250-300 PCT OF NORMAL)              
ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR PCPN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WARMING H85 TEMPS                
COMBINED WITH COOL H5 TEMPS AROUND -15C RESULT IN STEEPENING MID                
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT               
AND UPR TROUGH DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHICH IS             
WHEN BEST COVERAGE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. 00Z GFS                
EVEN INDICATED SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD                 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MON EVENING. ECMWF MUCH QUICKER WITH FROPA.                
ALTHOUGH MOST PCPN WILL BE DONE BY MON NIGHT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE              
IN GRIDS FOR TUE AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PER HPC AND              
H5 COLD POOL (-20C AT H5) ALSO ROTATES THROUGH. BRIEF RIDGING BOTH              
ALOFT AND AT SFC FOR WED...THEN DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVR            
MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS. SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY AT             
SFC...LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS                
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1037 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE RACING             
E ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. SHARP DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN              
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. 00Z/12Z KINL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE                   
INCOMING DRY AIR NICELY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPED FROM 0.68 TO              
0.15 INCHES...AND 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-25C             
FROM 840MB TO 550MB. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO FOLLOWING THE              
STRONG SHORTWAVE. WINDS WERE BEING AIDED BY 4-5MB/3HR PRES RISE MAX             
THAT WAS QUICKLY MOVING E ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. CORE OF PRES RISES            
IS NOW OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI...SO STRONGEST WINDS             
HAVE JUST ABOUT PASSED THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS HEADING ESE THRU             
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ARE                 
ALREADY STREAMING E THRU ND INTO NRN MN.                                        
INHERITED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE AFTN AND ONLY REQUIRES MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MORNING TRENDS. SOME STRATOCU WILL BE AROUND               
FOR A FEW MORE HRS...MAINLY ACROSS THE N...ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB                
THERMAL TROF AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATOCU SHOULD BE               
GONE BY MID/LATE AFTN...BUT ALREADY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH             
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIPPING INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE W. AS               
FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 800-850MB ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S ARE ON TRACK OVER THE W AND N. WNW               
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER                
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL. AS FOR                
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW             
MORE HRS WITH EXPECTATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS             
PRES RISE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MN                  
DRIFTS E.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALF ALG THE CNDN BORDER...WITH               
ANOTHER SHRTWV PRESENT OVER ND. THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN NOTED              
AT THE START OF SHIFT. THE FIRST WAS A BAND OF SHRA MOVING INTO WRN             
LK SUP JUST AHEAD OF COLD FNT IN DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
ASSOCIATED WITH ND SHRTWV. LLVL MSTR LINGERS BEHIND THIS FNT WITH SC            
CIGS OBSVD BACK TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE DRIER AIR NOTED ON              
THE BIS SDNG IS WORKING EWD. STRONGER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH                  
SHRTWV OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING TOWARD THE MN AT 03Z...BUT LTL PCPN              
OBSVD ALG THIS BNDRY DESPITE SHARPER THERMAL CONTRAST. SECOND                   
CLUSTER OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA EXTENDS FM NW WI INTO IA WHERE               
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/SFC COLD FNT INTERSECTING HIER H85            
DWPTS AOA 8C SURGING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF FNT...MSTR NOT AVBL TO BAND             
FARTHER N IN WRN LK SUP. RAOBS/PROFILERS SHOW H85 SW WINDS AOA 50               
KTS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGEST AREA OF SHRA PRESENT OVER ERN                
WI/LK MI/NW LWR MI AT NOSE OF STRONGEST H85-7 WINDS JUST AHEAD OF               
WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON RUC ANALYSIS. SCT SHRA/TSRA ON NRN FRINGE OF               
THIS AREA ARE IMPACTING THE ERN CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THESE               
SHRA/TSRA ON TRACK TO MISS THE FA. OTRW...LTL PCPN NOTED OVER THE FA            
RIGHT NOW...BUT RETURN OF HIER LLVL MSTR OVER MELTING SN HAS CAUSED             
QUITE A BIT OF ST/FOG...WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM AT PLACES ACRS MAINLY              
THE SCNTRL AND E. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING THRU BRITISH                 
COLUMBIA.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION OF PCPN             
AREAS AS LATEST RUC/LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SHRTWVS OVER ND AND LK             
WINNIPEG PHASING OVERNGT. FOCUS AFTER COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG                
SHIFTS TO WINDS/TEMPS.                                                          
AS SHRTWVS BEGIN TO MERGE TO A 40-UNIT VORT MAX OVER FAR NRN LK SUP             
BY 12Z THU...EXPECT SHRA AREAS OVER WRN LK SUP/WI TO MERGE OVER THE             
SCNTRL/ERN CWA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RA THERE WHERE MSTR CNVGC                
PHASES BETTER WITH DPVA/FALLING HGTS/DEEP QVECTOR CVNGC BEFORE                  
ACCELERATING INCRSGLY KATAFNT TYPE COLD FNT DRIVES E UNDER JET SURGE            
REGION OF DEEPENING SHRTWV. WITH RAPID INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED AS            
H85 W WINDS INCRS UP TO 50KT...LOOK FOR PCPN/DENSE FOG TO END SOON              
AFTR COLD FROPA WITH INTENSE DRY ADVCTN/SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RUC/NAM                 
INDICATE DRYING WL REACH ERY ARND 12Z...SO MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WL              
BE OVER BY EARLY TDAY. WL CARRY LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN COUNTIES            
EARLY...OTRW HAVE REMOVED POPS ALTOGETHER AS NAM/RUC FCST SDNGS                 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ARE QUITE DRY. WL EVALUATE NEED TO KEEP GOING               
DENSE FOG ADVY GOING CLOSE TO FCST ISSUANCE...BUT ANTICIPATE                    
DROPPING ADVY FOR MOST OF THE FA BY FCST ISSUANCE. GFS FCST SDNGS               
SHOW MORE LLVL MSTR...BUT PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE RUC/NAM FCSTS            
GIVEN MORE DRYING OBSVD UPSTREAM OVER NW MN/ANTICIPATED DRY SURGE               
BEHIND DEEPENING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG                  
BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH 35KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR TO DIMINISH A             
BIT THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT               
SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF RDG...MIXING/DEEPENING PBL WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN LLVL CAD SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALF TO                 
MAINTAIN GUSTINESS THRU THE DAY. MIXING TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS                
SUGS HI TEMPS WL REACH ARND 45 OVER THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE NW FLOW             
WL BE DOWNSLOPING. LOOK FOR AN INCRS IN HI CLD LATE TDAY IN ADVANCE             
OF NEXT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FCST TO MOVE TOWARD             
NW MN LATE TDAY.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT ACRS THE UPR             
GRT LKS...AND GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW INCRSG MID LVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH LLVLS            
APPEAR WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN...GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM                  
GENERATE SOME GENERALLY LGT QPF OVER THE NW AND LK SUP. NAM ACTUALLY            
SHOWS SOME SHARP H85-7 FGEN WITH SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV. SINCE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH FCST                
DYNAMICS BUT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA...WL CARRY SLGT CHC -SHSN (FCST WBZ PROFILES SUG ANY PCPN              
WOULD BE SN) ACRS THE NW CWA ON CYC SIDE OF NAM FCST H3 JET MAX/BEST            
H85-7 FGEN. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE THE               
CLDS WL BE THINNEST.                                                            
FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV EARLY FRI...SFC-H85 RDG AXIS/MID LVL              
DRYING FCST TO DOMINATE. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME HIER DWPTS AT H85               
LINGERING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT BKN DIURNAL SC TO DVLP DURING DAY.                
MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS NEAR 55. WITH               
LGT SW FLOW...EXPECT LK BREEZES/AFTN COOLING TO DVLP MAINLY NEAR LK             
MI.                                                                             
SOME CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE FRI                  
NGT/SAT PDS...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING FAST ZONAL FLOW FCST TO                
PREVAIL. GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SHRTWV ARRIVING LATE FRI NGT AND               
GENERATING SGNFT PCPN ON SAT. WL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY UKMET/                  
ECWMF/CNDN/NAM THAT SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV SHEARING BY ON FRI NGT            
FOLLOWED BY RDGING ON SAT. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FRI NGT AND KEEP SAT            
DRY. WITH H85 TEMPS APRCHG 6C ON SAT...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE INLAND             
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 PER MIXING TO H8 ON NAM FCST               
SDNGS. WITH SFC HI CENTER TO THE SE AND CWA IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW...              
EXPECT THE MOST SGNFT LK MODERATION OFF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK              
FLOW AND SFC HTG INLAND SHOULD ALLOW LK BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AS WELL.           
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERNS FOR 18Z TAFS INVOLVE AREA OF STRATUS MIGRATING                    
NORTHWARD THIS AFTN AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING.               
NAM AND RUC BOTH POINT TOWARD MSP/RNH/EAU BEING MOST                            
AFFECTED...WITH MSP SEEING THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...IT                 
WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL CLDS AT AXN AND STC AND THE                  
INFUSION OF LOW LEVEL MSTR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PUT SOME MVFR              
VSBYS IN AT AXN DURING THE FAVORED TIME NEAR DAWN...BUT WITH MID                
CLDS HANGING AROUND STC LONGER...KEPT THIS SITE VFR. RWF WILL NOT               
HAVE THE MID/UPR CLDS TO DEAL WITH SO INCLUDED CONSIDERABLE VSBY                
RESTRICTIONS OVRNGT AND EARLY MRNG.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
IN THE NEAR TERM...A SPLIT UPPER AIRFLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS             
THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL                  
PROVIDE SOME MILD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH              
SATURDAY.                                                                       
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURE...SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED                
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER BAJA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDS            
FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC INTO MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO                
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A                  
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND             
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL ALSO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT             
OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OR HAS BEEN THE                
MAIN FOCUS FOR TSRA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE              
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SEEN LITTLE              
TOO FAST.                                                                       
AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS             
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO                  
ADVANCE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE                 
INDICATING AT LEAST SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN                  
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST               
TO BE QUITE STRONG BY MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.              
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED              
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE                
TORNADOES.  QUESTION...IS WHETHER MUCH OF OUR CONVECTION...WILL STAY            
ELEVATED OR WILL IT BECOME SURFACE BASE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS                   
FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN ANTICIPATED.  RIGHT NOW...STORM PREDICTION               
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE CWA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY.                
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER            
PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES            
OF LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN U.S. BEFORE                  
LIFTING NORTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.                               
MADE SOME CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAISED TEMPS OVER THE NEXT             
FEW DAYS...BOTH MIN/MAX TEMPS AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST HALF             
OF CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
915 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING UPPER RIDGE      
OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO CUT OFF LOW LEVEL GULF                 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. REMOVED PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTH AND         
PUT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM          
THE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS         
TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE 70S BY NOON BEFORE       
REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON./17/                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI/HBG            
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS            
THE WHOLE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK                
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE                    
3KFT./17/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
915 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING UPPER RIDGE      
OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO CUT OFF LOW LEVEL GULF                 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. REMOVED PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTH AND         
PUT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM          
THE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS         
TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING TO THE 70S BY NOON BEFORE       
REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON./17/                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI FOR            
SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z             
AT HBG FOR SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL            
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN              
DECK DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE               
3KFT./17/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
252 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY              
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST             
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOSE INLAND             
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. THIS LOW IS PROGGED             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE                
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST            
BUT WL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO              
MID 50S. /22/                                                                   
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE              
WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING TO              
DEFLECT POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE            
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO              
MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...THE              
CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH PASSAGE OF               
THE TROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA             
FOR THE MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THERE               
ARE STILL INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL             
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY AS STRONG             
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AND FORCE A              
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS/ ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING                
THIS BREAK-DOWN...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY MEX MOS.             
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT                 
GWO/GTR/GLH. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT JAN/MEI                
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
TO DEVELOP AROUND 11Z AT HBG AGAIN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY                    
MORNINGS. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE              
AREA EACH MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SCT-BKN DECK DEVELOP EACH                     
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       82  54  84  55 /   2   2   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      83  52  85  54 /   2   2   2   2                                  
VICKSBURG     82  56  84  57 /   3   2   3   3                                  
HATTIESBURG   82  54  84  54 /   3   2   2   5                                  
NATCHEZ       81  56  83  58 /   3   2   3   4                                  
GREENVILLE    81  57  83  57 /   7   2   3   3                                  
GREENWOOD     83  56  85  57 /   6   2   3   3                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
935 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION UNDER AN                
UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IS CONTINUING OUR LONG ROUND OF DRY WEATHER.                
SHOULD GET SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS        
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOG HAS LIFTED OVER OUR THE SOUTHEAST                   
ZONES...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CURRENT               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SO WILL MAKE NO OTHER              
CHANGES TO THE ZONES./17/                                                       
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG           
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 FOR FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z FRIDAY./17/                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF               
CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LAST               
HOUR. PINE BELT AIRPORT WAS REPORTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS                   
ALREADY. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR AN ADVISORY             
AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG                      
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN PATCHY. ELSE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY                  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST-WEST               
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE OVER THE              
SOUTHEAST STATES MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER             
OUR CWA. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD INLAND            
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUT OFF LOW DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN            
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER BAJA DURING THE              
NEXT 36HRS AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE             
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL HELP KEEP THE                       
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BUT WL             
STILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND            
FRIDAY AT MOST SITES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL               
TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. /22/               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                                               
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
WEEKEND...TENDING TO DEFLECT ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN INCREASING RAIN              
CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BY              
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEPER             
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A SRN STREAM                     
PERTURBATION... THE CHANCE POPS INDICATED BY GFS MOS SEEM                       
REASONABLE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID              
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD TAKE               
SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG                    
WESTERLIES CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS. THE                     
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT                     
PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES AGAINST IT. /EC/                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF LIFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG            
AND S OF HIGHWAY 84 THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. VFR                  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AREAWIDE BY 15Z EACH MORNING. /22/            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: 22                                                                  
LONG TERM: EC                                                                   
</pre> ms                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
414 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (FRI THROUGH SUN)...                                                
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS NOW EXITED THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE               
COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI NOW          
TRAINING JUST SOUTH OF LINN/BUTLER/BATES COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHT                  
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE KC METRO AREA WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS           
TRAILING BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARDS TOPEKA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE          
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR H7 AS NOTED VIA RUC MOISTURE            
PROG. AS THIS SPREADS EASTWARD...MAY SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS               
DEVELOP ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE               
MO/IA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK NOTED VIA        
VIS SATELLITE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHEST QPF              
CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVERNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE CONTENT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.              
HOWEVER...APPEARS CORE OF LLJ WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MORE DIFFUSE            
OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...HAVE EDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER         
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT               
HIGH WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP PLACEMENT.                                          
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. TOUGH TO GAGE PRECIP EPISODES WITH                 
SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. 60KT H5 JET                   
PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
BELIEVE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST CLOSER            
TO STRONGER JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING              
RECEIVED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY             
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF OLD BOUNDARY.                                     
UPPER LOW TO THEN SWING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY           
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF JET DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...APPEARS JET AXIS WILL ALIGN FROM CENTRAL IA                
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...DRYLINE WILL PUSH            
INTO EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL A BIT FAR OUT...BUT IF DYNAMICS COME            
TOGETHER AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS ARE REALIZED...SOME SEVERE               
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM MOIST PATTERN AS SOUTHERN FLOW              
CONTINUES WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE NORTH.                             
DEROCHE                                                                         
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MON THROUGH FRI)...                                        
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.               
SEGMENTS OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST               
OVER THE EASTERN RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED                
MID/UPPER WEAKNESS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/GULF STATES.             
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER               
SYSTEM...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCING              
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED LOW END SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT              
WEEK...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                   
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT                
WEEK...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD              
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO               
THURSDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWER AND                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                                          
STOFLET                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOST OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE TAF SITES AND IS             
NOW MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PLEASANTON TO SEDALIA LINE.            
OTHER CONCERN IS WITH LOW CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO           
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. WITH FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING                 
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLOUD DECK               
SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS                 
ALLOWED SOME BREAKS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST             
NB WITH HIGHER CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO              
BRING IN A BIT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MID AFTERNOON AS SOME MIXING TAKES            
SHAPE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS VARIANCE OF              
CLOUD DECK AND EXTENT OF MIXING REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN                         
ADDITION...FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN COUNTING WITH CONTINUING DIFFICULTY IN         
PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP. LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM WITH LOW              
CONFIDENCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.           
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHER                  
CHANCES DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                                    
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH THE ORIENTATION SHIFTING MORE               
WEST TO EAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED             
INTO BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.                    
ORIGINATION POINT OF CONVECTION IN SE KS/NE OK HAS SHIFTED VERY                 
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT WAS ONCE A SW TO NE                    
ORIENTATION HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TOWARDS A W-E AXIS...PARTIALLY               
DUE TO A SLIGHT VEER IN THE 925/850MB WIND DIRECTIONS PER THE LATEST            
RUC INITIALIZATIONS.                                                            
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO THE EVOLUTION              
AND MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT...              
GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS EASTWARD AND                       
NORTHWARD.                                                                      
GAGAN/FOSTER                                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.             
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND             
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW IN THE                     
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE            
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE               
LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OR            
STRENGTHEN WHICH WE MAY BE SEEING THE ORIGINS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MISSOURI.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGING INTO THE             
OZARKS THIS WEEKEND AND THUS KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO               
THE WEST OF THE AREA.                                                           
ALL OF THE OZARKS REGION AND OSAGE PLAINS WILL BE ENVELOPED BY THE              
WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. IF                
NEAR FULL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER OR              
EVEN MIDDLE 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.                                                 
NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA                
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. BETTER              
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF             
NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE             
ROCKIES.                                                                        
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION            
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL HAS QUICKLY EXPANDED EASTWARD...COMING             
IN ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AT SGF. RADAR TRENDS AND                 
SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR FROM JLN TO             
SGF WILL BE IN FOR A WET AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE                    
EXPECTED. CIG/VIS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CELLS/DOWNPOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO                 
EXPECTED.                                                                       
TIMING THE ENDING OF THIS RAINFALL IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC AND HAVE              
KEPT PREDOMINATE TSRA AT BOTH JLN AND SGF THROUGH THE LATE                      
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE WEST TO EAST AXIS            
OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST.                                        
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.                    
SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...CONTINUED 30-40KT WINDS              
IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST OFF THE SFC WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS FROM              
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS              
MIXING BEGINS.                                                                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH THE ORIENTATION SHIFTING MORE               
WEST TO EAST. HAVE ONCE AGAIN UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                                                        
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED INTO BROAD                
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. ORIGINATION POINT             
OF CONVECTION IN SE KS/NE OK HAS SHIFTED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST              
SEVERAL HOURS. WHAT WAS ONCE A SW TO NE ORIENTATION HAS SHIFTED A               
BIT MORE TOWARDS A W-E AXIS...PARTIALLY DUE TO A SLIGHT VEER IN THE             
925/850MB WIND DIRECTIONS PER THE LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS.                   
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONTINUES FROM CHEROKEE COUNTY INTO LAWRENCE              
COUNTY. STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR VIA             
CHEROKEE EMERGENCY MGMT AND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING FOR THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS REPORTS SUCH AS THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WILL             
ALTER ORIENTATION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING IN THE HWO WITH THE 100PM               
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH GREENE COUNTY            
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ELSEWHERE.                                                  
GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN UPPER DIFFLUENCE             
AND THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS            
EASTWARD.  LOOKS LIKE A WET AFTERNOON.                                          
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
//1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007//                                                 
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                        
AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
EXTENDING FROM NE MO THROUGH SE KS AND INTO NE TX. DECENT MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH                   
THETA-E RIDGING TO THE TUNE OF 328K NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL                    
MISSOURI. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY RESIDES            
OVER JASPER COUNTY MO AND CHEROKEE COUNTY MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE                 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDS FARTHER EAST ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE              
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS (AS VIEWED THROUGH THE                
LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS).                                                    
WITH PWS FROM THE MORNING KSGF SOUNDING AROUND 1.15 INCHES AND KIS              
IN EXCESS OF 30...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL                   
PRODUCTION. METARS ACROSS SE KS CORRELATE WELL TO 1-HR RAINFALL                 
RATES. WITH THE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS EXTREME SE KS AND WESTERN MO WHERE FLASH                
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.                             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN                    
ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHEAR AXIS               
WILL PROMOTE TRAINING CONVECTION IN AN AREA WITH LOWER TOLERANCE FOR            
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                                                         
ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION            
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL HAS QUICKLY EXPANDED EASTWARD...COMING             
IN ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AT SGF. RADAR TRENDS AND                 
SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR FROM JLN TO             
SGF WILL BE IN FOR A WET AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE                    
EXPECTED. CIG/VIS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CELLS/DOWNPOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO                 
EXPECTED.                                                                       
TIMING THE ENDING OF THIS RAINFALL IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC AND HAVE              
KEPT PREDOMINATE TSRA AT BOTH JLN AND SGF THROUGH THE LATE                      
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE WEST TO EAST AXIS            
OF SHRA/TSRA BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST.                                        
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.                    
SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG IN             
THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...CONTINUED 30-40KT WINDS              
IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST OFF THE SFC WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS FROM              
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS              
MIXING BEGINS.                                                                  
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1055 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.                        
AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS              
EXTENDING FROM NE MO THROUGH SE KS AND INTO NE TX. DECENT MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH                   
THETA-E RIDGING TO THE TUNE OF 328K NOSING INTO WEST CENTRAL                    
MISSOURI. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY RESIDES            
OVER JASPER COUNTY MO AND CHEROKEE COUNTY MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE                 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDS FARTHER EAST ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE              
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS (AS VIEWED THROUGH THE                
LATEST RUC INITIALIZATIONS).                                                    
WITH PWS FROM THE MORNING KSGF SOUNDING AROUND 1.15 INCHES AND KIS              
IN EXCESS OF 30...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL                   
PRODUCTION. METARS ACROSS SE KS CORRELATE WELL TO 1-HR RAINFALL                 
RATES. WITH THE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. THE                   
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS EXTREME SE KS AND WESTERN MO WHERE FLASH                
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN LOW FROM RECENT RAINS.                             
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN                    
ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHEAR AXIS               
WILL PROMOTE TRAINING CONVECTION IN AN AREA WITH LOWER TOLERANCE FOR            
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                                                         
ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.                                        
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
//303 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007//                                                  
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF                 
YEAR...NO COLD FRONTS OR MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS             
OVERHEAD.  HOWEVER...DUE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GULF                          
INFLUX...SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE             
OFFING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST             
CONCERN IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS PRECIP CHANCES IN BOTH THE                
SHORT AND LONG TERM TIME FRAMES.                                                
ONE ITEM TO NOTE...BECAUSE OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF               
THE GULF OF MEXICO...A RATHER HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FROM            
THE GULF INTO MID AMERICA.  DRY ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC REGIONS             
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP RICH MOISTURE FROM MATERIALIZING WITHIN THE              
WESTERN GULF SOURCE REGION.  THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LONG PERIOD OF             
SOUTHERLY FLOW...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIMITED FOR                  
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                  
SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                            
A SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA                   
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS             
AND MISSOURI OZARKS REGION.  A BELT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS             
AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE...AND IS CORRELATED WITH                
LARGE SCALE LIFT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF JET STREAM LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.             
A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME                  
APPEAR TO BE CORRELATED WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL                      
DIFFLUENCE...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROFILER                  
NETWORK WHEN ANALYZING 250 MB WIND VECTOR MEASUREMENTS.                         
ONE OF THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING EXTREME                 
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  DUE TO LIMITED                        
INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE               
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING             
STRIKES.  TIMING OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND HOW IT EVOLVES WITH             
RESPECT TO AREAL COVERAGE WAS THE INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN FOR                  
TODAYS PERIOD.                                                                  
EXTRAPOLATION WITH THE CLUSTERS CURRENT MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT AFTER            
12Z...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  RAIN WILL LIKELY END IN THE SPRINGFIELD METRO            
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 - 8AM.  THEREFORE WILL ADJUST MORNING POPS              
TO REPRESENT THIS EXTRAPOLATION...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS               
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN TAPERING THE GRID TO SLIGHT             
CHANCES OUT WEST.  IT`S LIKELY THAT THE CLUSTER WILL LOSE SOME OF               
IT`S LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH NOCTURNAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS.               
BOTH THE WRF AND THE GFS INDICATE A SECOND CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO             
IMPACT THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...THE ONLY KINEMATIC                   
MECHANISM TO CAUSE THIS APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER                 
DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR ABILENE TEXAS.                
HOW THIS FORECASTED BAND OF FORCING WILL IMPACT THE OZARKS REMAINS              
VERY QUESTIONABLE.  QPF FIELDS FROM THE WRF AND GFS ARE VERY                    
INCONSISTENT AND NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL.  HOWEVER MOS GUIDANCE                   
SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS.                                      
WILL ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POP GRID TO 50 POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY            
ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.  ONE ELEMENT THAT WE DO KNOW FOR SURE IS THAT              
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...WHICH              
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.  WITH EARLY MORNING                     
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...DESPITE CLOUD                 
COVER AND PRECIP READINGS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S IN MOST                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE BAJA LOW WILL FILL WHILE THE MAIN                
CIRCULATION SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS              
FROM THE GFS INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS              
EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT                
PROCESSES OCCUR BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL YIELD MORE AREAS OF             
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS                 
CORRIDOR.  RESIDUAL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE              
DAY ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CWA.  WILL KEEP ONGOING                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING IN THE GRIDS DUE TO SIGNALS FROM BOTH THE            
GFS AND WRF FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS PERIOD.                       
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CAN BE ANALYZED WITHIN               
MODEL DATA.  THEREFORE SINCE WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THIS EXTENDED                 
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                 
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                     
LONG TERM (MONDAY - THURSDAY)...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS...BASICALLY THE RESIDUAL TROUGHING FROM THE             
ONGOING BAJA CYCLONE IS SUGGESTED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA            
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  NOT MUCH OF A RESPONSE OCCURS AT THE SURFACE AS             
THE OZARKS REMAINS UNDER SOUTHERN FLOW.  COOLING ALOFT MAY PROMOTE              
INCREASED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP                
ONGOING TSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY LOOK GOOD AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP            
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  THIS WILL REINFORCE THE                 
UNSETTLED PATTERN AND OFFER A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM                 
TEMPERATURES.  I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BY WARMING              
THESE GRIDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED.  ECMWF HAS BEEN                 
PERFORMING THE BEST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH SHOWS ENERGY                
APPROACHING THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS NOT                
MUCH DIFFERENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION.  THEREFORE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO            
THESE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE NEEDED.                                 
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAF SITES WERE AMENDED EARLIER TO GAUGE RAINFALL/TS TIMING. IT                  
APPEARS THAT CIGS/VIS WILL WAVER FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE ON                   
AGAIN...OFF AGAIN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST            
AT JLN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT SGF...CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE                
LOWER IN TIMING DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF CONVECTION...AN               
ESTIMATED TIMING IS PROVIDED IN THE LATEST TAF TARGETING THE EARLY              
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                         
GAGAN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
800 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM             
NEAR CONCORDIA NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF OMAHA. REPORTS FROM OAX                    
INDICATED NUMEROUS THREE QUARTER TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER HAIL REPORTS            
WITH THIS LINE. MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT         
THE THREAT OF HAIL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME                  
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                             
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY                      
DIMINISHING. LATEST RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE CAP OVER THE CWA               
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF INSOLATION...SBCAPE AND             
MUCAPE DROP TO 1000-1250 J/KG BETWEEN 09-12Z. SHEAR WILL REMAIN                 
MARGINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO              
REACH A KANSAS CITY TO PRINCETON LINE BY 08Z. BY 12Z...ONLY SMALL               
HAIL IS EXPECTED.                                                               
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
331 PM...                                                                       
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PERIODS AS LARGE SCALE              
PATTERN CHANGE HAS PLACED THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION IN A                 
FAVORED AREA FOR REPEATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.                                 
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIRMASS             
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS APPROACHING            
60 DEGREES. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH                
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LEAVING THE             
AREA CAPPED ABOVE AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS CANOPY. PACIFIC COLD                     
FRONT/DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM NORFOLK TO KEARNEY NEBRASKA...AND PER              
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN PRECEDED BY AN INTERESTING                   
GRAVITY WAVE.                                                                   
SHORT MODEL PROGS COLLABORATE WELL WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SHOWING            
THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SE NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT                
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG THE             
ADVANCING FRONT AND JUST EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE LOW. ATTENDANT            
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING LINE              
SEGMENTS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES               
COUPLE WITH INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AFTER DARK. CERTAINLY               
STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE THE GREATER THREAT FOR            
SEVERE. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THE THREAT WILL PERSIST             
AFTER DARK...AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR             
CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY A             
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. INCREASED                  
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS PRIMARY FOCUSED IN AREAS NORTH             
AND WEST OF A KANSAS CITY TO TRENTON LINE.                                      
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG EAX/SGF CWA BORDER            
TOMORROW MORNING...AND WAFFLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES            
OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EJECTED FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW                     
ENTRENCHED IN THE BAJA. VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS TYPE OF              
YEAR...BUT THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY RAISES A RED FLAG THAT CUMULATIVE RAINFALL                
TOTALS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING BY THE WEEKEND.                                   
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS THE                           
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO LARGE ERRORS DEPENDING ON               
ITS DAY TO DAY PLACEMENT AND PROPAGATION. WHERE PERIODIC SUNSHINE IS            
ABLE TO MANIFEST BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...RAPID WARMING INTO THE                 
UPPER 60S-MID 70S COULD OCCUR GIVEN BALMY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES                
BENEATH WEAK 500MB RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. EQUALLY                    
POSSIBLE ARE HIGHS IN THE 50S WHERE MCS INDUCED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD             
DEBRIS KEEP READINGS NEARLY WET BULBED.                                         
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF               
THE CLOSED BAJA LOW INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF STILL              
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS              
ENSEMBLES HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION THE PAST            
SEVERAL RUNS. BEFORE THE MAIN BRUNT OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY EJECTS                   
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE             
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS WHOSE WRN PERIPHERY SHOULD ALIGN ALONG THE LOWER            
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INVIGORATE LIFT              
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LEAD TO SEVERAL              
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
HAVE TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS SFC AND             
LOW LEVEL FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF MISSOURI KEEPING            
FOCUSING MECHANISM FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT                 
PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIFT               
INTO THE AREA ASSISTED BY A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ...SO HAVE               
CONTINUED A 30-40 PERCENT POP RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE               
THE POSSIBILITY OF A POTENT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY. AS WITH                
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ECMWF LIFTS THE UPPER WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER               
WEST OF THE AREA SHEARED MORE SO OVER THE RIDGE AXIS.                           
REGARDLESS...AS THE WAVE EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASING              
H5/H7 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA                  
OVERTOP OF INCREASING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE LEADING TO HEIGHTENED              
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FORECAST AOA 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME                    
TIME...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR                  
VECTORS AOA 50KT WITH THE REGION SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT              
FRONT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KT UPPER JET. OTHER THAN THE UPPER WAVE              
AND LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PLACEMENT...MAIN UNCERTAINTY                   
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ANY MORNING CONVECTION CONTAMINATING THE                  
MODIFIED AIRMASS PROHIBITING FULL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.                    
AFTER THE UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES...A SFC FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN              
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER LARGE CHUNK OF                 
ENERGY ESTABLISHES A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. PREFER A               
SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THIS LONGWAVE             
FEATURE EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.                   
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THIS RESPECT WHICH KEEPS            
THE AREA MAINLY DRY...ALBEIT QUITE WARM FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST             
PERIOD.                                                                         
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION              
REACHING STJ AROUND 07Z. THE CONVECTION WILL LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS.            
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE              
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...POSSIBLY VERY               
BRIEFLY IFR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE KANSAS              
CITY AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OF THE AIRPORTS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VFR CEILINGS ARE             
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z AT STJ AND AFTER 12Z AT MKC AND MCI.  ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</pre> mo