AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
837 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF BLOWING DUST MOVING IN                
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS SUSPENDED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND                    
HAS BROUGHT SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70            
CORRIDOR. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...THE DUST WILL SETTLE              
OUT AND VISIBILITIES WILL START TO IMPROVE. WITH THE DIMINISHING                
WINDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE RED FLAG WARNING AND THE                      
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT. WILL BE ISSUING              
TWO STATEMENTS...ONE CLEARING THIS EVENINGS HIGHLIGHTS AND A SECOND             
TO REMOVE THE EXPIRATION MESSAGES ABOUT 30 MINUTES LATER. MONDAY                
HIGHLIGHTS STILL ON TARGET...DETAILS BELOW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                        
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC DATA SHOW THE COLD            
FRONT THROUGH VERNAL AND PRICE...BUT JUST WEST OF CANYONLANDS AND               
HANKSVILLE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND            
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH ROUTT             
COUNTY BY ABOUT 8 PM MDT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION...SOUTH OF ABOUT                 
INTERSTATE 70...WILL CONTINUE LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOW            
ITS EASTERLY PROGRESS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO HANGUP LATE TONIGHT                  
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GRAND JUNCTION AND MONTROSE...AND STAY NORTH OF               
MONTICELLO.                                                                     
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL            
CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH ABOUT 9 PM. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN              
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS              
AND POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SO ANOTHER            
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED. INSTEAD...BELIEVE WINDS WILL           
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY ONLY IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR EAST OF              
GRAND JUNCTION TO EDWARDS...CO ZONES 7 AND 8...MONDAY AFTERNOON                 
AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT PARALLEL TO THE                 
WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL SLOUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE A           
BIT COOLER AS A RESULT IN ALL BUT THE MOST SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY           
THE FRONT SHOULD WAVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND AN POORLY DEFINED WARM              
FRONT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE DECREASING WIND TREND...WHILE TEMPS             
INCREASE AGAIN WITH HUMIDITY STAYING LOW.                                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                    
CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD AS LONG AS ONE THROWS OUT THE 06Z GFS BEYOND           
MIDWEEK. THERE STILL ARE A FEW MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE              
MIDWEEK TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT WAITING FOR THU AFTERNOON. THE            
12Z CAME BACK IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS RUNS IN BRINGING A             
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.                     
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP WED AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH                  
STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERLY             
WITH ITS TRACK ON THUR...AND WEAKER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.             
SO TWEAKED THE ALREADY LOW POPS DOWNWARDS...AND THURSDAYS                       
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS. BEYOND THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED             
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH              
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH               
AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 40 KNOTS OVER THE RIDGES WILL BE COMMON AND            
CAUSE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN WAVES OVER AND IN THE LEE              
OF RIDGES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER (FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISCUSSION)...                           
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND BECOMES                   
STATIONARY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL USHER IN A COOLER                  
AIRMASS NORTH OF THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS FOR INCREASED RH MONDAY AFTERNOON.           
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS WILL SET UP QUICKLY               
AFTER SUNSET. BUT MIXING WILL BRING RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS AGAIN           
LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 8-15 PCT WITH WIND GUSTS           
35-45 MPH IN THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS.           
COORDINATION WITH LAND MGMT AGENCIES INDICATE THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE           
BURNING OF DITCHES OF AGRICULTURAL FIELDS...WHERE DEAD/DRY VEGETATION           
WILL FUEL RAPID FIRE GROWTH.                                                    
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT                
COOLER TEMPS FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITIES.              
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM MDT                      
       MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203/205/207 BELOW 6500 FEET.               
      WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY FROM 11 AM 7 PM MDT...FOR THE              
       INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM CAMEO TO EDWARDS...ZONES 7 AND 8.            
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.........JDC                                                              
SHORT TERM.....CJC                                                              
LONG TERM......ELH                                                              
AVIATION.......CJC                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/JDC                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
300 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS COLORADO AT               
PRESENT DUE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST            
WINDS OCCURRING OVER CWA DUE TO GOOD MIXING. HUMIDITY READINGS HAVE             
BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 10 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN                    
CRITICAL OVER THE PLAINS. RUC CONTINUES THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT              
LEAST 02Z...SO RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS SHOULD                
IMPROVE AT THAT TIME AS HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODELS               
CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS                        
EVENING...THEN ONTO THE PLAINS AROUND 06Z. SHOULD SEE WINDS BECOME              
WESTERLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODEL                 
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.             
WILL DROP THE LOW POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AS FOR THE                    
PLAINS...WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. NO POPS AS AIRMASS DRY. ON                     
MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA                   
AS NOTED BY AREA OF QG ASCENT. SOME MID LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS              
WAVE. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS...CURRENT LOW              
POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. FOR THE PLAINS...SURFACE FLOW               
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME            
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FOOTHILLS. WITH WEAK ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES              
AROUND 8 C/KM...CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS                  
DEVELOPING...THOUGH FORECAST CAPES ARE MINIMAL. CURRENT FORECAST                
ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT                
PLAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. COULD BE SOME              
GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE STORMS. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS               
SHOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS.                
CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEEM ON TRACK. NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE                 
WEATHER CONCERNS AS WINDS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE BELOW CRITICAL                 
LEVELS.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER              
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A JET MAX TO OUR IMMEDIATE                
NORTH.  ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DECREASES QUITE A BIT AND               
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  THIS CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.               
LATER WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW INCREASES A BIT AND BECOMES MORE                     
WESTERLY.  DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE                    
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEAK UPWARD MOTION IS PROGGED FOR THE FORECAST              
AREA.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FAIRLY BENIGN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH            
TUESDAY NIGHT.  BY WEDNESDAY...LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS             
INDICATES SOME SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND             
PLAINS.  FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS A BIT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS              
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS             
THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES               
ARE PROGGED ON WEDNESDAY.   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TINY BIT OF               
CAPE MONDAY EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS ALSO              
SOME LIMITED CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE DAY                     
WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIRLY DECENT CAPE VALUES OVER THE FAR EASTERN                 
BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  NO POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
MORNING JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE.  WILL GO 10-20% WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MENTIONED AS WELL.  FOR                 
TEMPERATURES... TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.                 
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER               
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH PUSH               
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW                 
ALOFT FRIDAY.  THEN AN UPPER RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL DRY                   
THURSDAY OUT A BIT ON THE GRIDS AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE POPS WITH             
THE TROUGH AS IS.  FRIDAY IS THE ONLY COOL DAY.  WILL WARM THURSDAY             
UP AND KEEP READINGS A BIT A ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE LAST DAY...SUNDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO                
30 KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE DECREASING. A COLD FRONT            
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY.             
FRONT WILL BE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIP.  A               
FEW HIGH BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ALONG FOOTHILLS...                
SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS ADJACENT PLAINS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. GUSTY               
OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS...WHICH COULD            
AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS. ANY AREA PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM FOR              
NORTHEAST PLAINS...COZ238>251 FOR GUSTY WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
D-L/RJK                                                                         
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
242 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                        
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC SHOW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH VERNAL AND             
PRICE...BUT JUST WEST OF CANYONLANDS AND HANKSVILLE. THE NORTHERN               
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST              
COLORADO THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH ROUTT COUNTY BY ABOUT 8 PM               
MDT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION...SOUTH OF ABOUT INTERSTATE 70...WILL                 
CONTINUE LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOW ITS EASTERLY                    
PROGRESS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO HANGUP LATE TONIGHT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN             
GRAND JUNCTION AND MONTROSE...AND STAY NORTH OF MONTICELLO.                     
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL            
CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH ABOUT 9 PM. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN              
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS              
AND POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SO ANOTHER            
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED. INSTEAD...BELIEVE WINDS WILL           
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY ONLY IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR EAST OF              
GRAND JUNCTION TO EDWARDS...CO ZONES 7 AND 8...MONDAY AFTERNOON                 
AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT PARALLEL TO THE                 
WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL SLOUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE A           
BIT COOLER AS A RESULT IN ALL BUT THE MOST SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY           
THE FRONT SHOULD WAVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND AN POORLY DEFINED WARM              
FRONT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE DECREASING WIND TREND...WHILE TEMPS             
INCREASE AGAIN WITH HUMIDITY STAYING LOW.                                       
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                    
CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD AS LONG AS ONE THROWS OUT THE 06Z GFS BEYOND           
MIDWEEK. THERE STILL ARE A FEW MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE              
MIDWEEK TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT WAITING FOR THU AFTERNOON. THE            
12Z CAME BACK IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS RUNS IN BRINGING A             
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.                     
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP WED AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH                  
STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERLY             
WITH ITS TRACK ON THUR...AND WEAKER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.             
SO TWEAKED THE ALREADY LOW POPS DOWNWARDS...AND THURSDAYS                       
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS. BEYOND THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED             
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH              
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH               
AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 40 KNOTS OVER THE RIDGES WILL BE COMMON AND            
CAUSE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN WAVES OVER AND IN THE LEE              
OF RIDGES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER (FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISCUSSION)...                           
WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW RH CONTINUE THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND              
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL USHER IN A                 
COOLER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS FOR INCREASED RH MONDAY               
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS WILL SET UP            
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. BUT MIXING WILL BRING RED FLAG WARNING                    
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 8-15              
PCT WITH WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH IN THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN CREATE                  
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. COORDINATION WITH LAND MGMT AGENCIES                 
INDICATE THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE BURNING OF DITCHES OF AGRICULTURAL             
FIELDS...WHERE DEAD/DRY VEGETATION WILL FUEL RAPID FIRE GROWTH.                 
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT                
COOLER TEMPS FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITIES.              
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT TODAY                           
        FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 201/203/205/207 BELOW 6500 FEET.                 
      RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM MDT MONDAY               
        FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203/205/207 BELOW 6500 FEET.                     
      WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES                    
        TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT...ZONES 1/2/6/7/8/11/14/20/              
        21/22/23.                                                               
      WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY FROM 11 AM 7 PM MDT...FOR THE              
        INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM CAMEO TO EDWARDS...ZONES                    
        7 AND 8.                                                                
.UT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT TODAY FOR FIRE                  
        WEATHER ZONE 443 BELOW 5500 FEET.                                       
      WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS ZONES                    
        TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT...ZONES 24/27/29/22.                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM.....CJC                                                              
LONG TERM......ELH                                                              
AVIATION.......CJC                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...JOE                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
240 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO GREAT BASIN IS INCREASING THE            
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA. ACROSS PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE            
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH OVER KANSAS...AND HAVE BECOME             
A BIT GUSTY AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS               
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS OF THE PLAINS WITH HUMIDITY              
READINGS AROUND 15% OR LESS. LATEST RUC INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN              
CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING               
TILL 02Z FOR PLAINS. AFTER THAT...SURFACE WINDS DECREASE A BIT WITH             
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO AREA.             
AS FOR MOUNTAINS...GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                
RIDGES. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS AREA...NOT ENOUGH TO              
MAKE ANY IMPACT. ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO              
INCREASE AS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO COLORADO. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS               
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO MOUNTAINS            
DURING THE AFTERNOON...APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK                     
SHORTWAVE. MODELS SHOW SOME QG ASCENT OVER MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME.              
WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM...COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.             
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP POPS ZERO.                 
MAIN CONCERN AGAIN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PLAINS DURING             
AFTERNOON...AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH                   
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE TEENS. TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH            
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING...WILL LET THE EVENING CREW HOIST THE                  
HILIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTER TODAY`S WARNING ENDS. GUIDANCE                       
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST                
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...WILL MAKE               
MINIMAL CHANGES.                                                                
.LONG TERM...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPIT            
SOME ENERGY OUR WAY FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH MOST             
OF IT HEADING ACROSS WYOMING.  EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS                
LESS THAN EXACT BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA                 
WON/T BE TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION             
...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS APPEARS TO BE             
ABOUT IT.  THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER RELATIVE               
HUMIDITIES WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS THAT WE ARE                 
PRESENTLY EXPERIENCING.  TOWARDS MIDWEEK THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A              
RIDGE MAY BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORCING A STRONGER TROUGH            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  HAVE MADE RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO              
THE GRIDS IN THE LONGER TERM TO REFLECT THESE THOUGHTS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY                   
SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS PLAINS TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z WITH SURFACE                 
WINDS DECREASING AND DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPING. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO            
INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL            
AIRPORTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 02Z FOR               
NORTHEAST PLAINS...COZ238>251.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
D-L/ET                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
345 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL HEADING INTO THE              
NEW WEEK.  HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC...LOWER            
CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF                
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ARRIVES LATE               
WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE MARINE STRATUS SLOWING BUT SURELY                   
ERODING AWAY FROM THE EAST IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. LATEST OBS STILL              
HAD KPOU CLOUDY BUT EVEN THERE...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT                 
SOON. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A             
BIT LOWER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 60S.                          
THE CUTOFF LOW...CENTERED OVER SW VA...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY "WOBBLE"             
TO THE ESE AND THE HEAVY SWATH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SHOULD              
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.                                                            
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...NOTHING MORE              
THAN HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME HAZE WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.                    
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT AS                         
MUCH...TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.                                                  
TONIGHT...ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY REFORM TO            
OUR SOUTH UNDERNEATH AN INCREASING AND LOWER INVERSION...AS THE                 
MARINE AIR GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT. THE STRATUS MIGHT SNEAK A                
LITTLE FURTHER UP THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT FOR NOW...BELIEVE IT WILL             
ONCE AGAIN STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITY AREA.                                
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE WHAT STRATUS CLOUDS THAT DO FORM...             
SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EVEN ANY                 
DRIZZLE...SO LEFT IT OUT.                                                       
WENT CLOSE TO MAV LOWS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE                
CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE WE THINK A BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST A BIT LONGER             
MITIGATING A RADIATIONAL LOSS OF HEAT FLUX.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK                
SOUTHWARD BY BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS. AT THE SAME                       
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS ACTUALLY FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO               
REBUILD OVER OUR CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN. THIS            
SUBSIDENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUNSHINE                   
(HAVING THE SAME EQUIVALENT AS SUNSHINE IN LATE AUGUST)...SHOULD BE             
ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...LEAVING ONLY SOME                   
RESIDUAL HIGH AND MID LEVEL ONES...WHICH HAVE BLOWN OFF THE UPPER               
AIR LOW. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD AROUND +8C. WITH GOOD                   
MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 IN                
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WENT CLOSE TO               
MAV VALUES.                                                                     
VERY LITTLE LOOKS TO CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND                  
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CUTOFF LO9W WILL                    
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOW DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST...BY THIS POINT...OFF THE            
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION             
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE                 
NORMAL WITH NO RAIN.                                                            
WENT VERY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE DURING THESE TIME FRAMES.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD               
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES             
TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2 STD               
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES AROUND 8 DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR            
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE DACKS TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN            
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RUN INTO             
THE RIDGE...FLATTENING THE 500MB FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE                
SURFACE...THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE                  
REGION FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS             
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THIS             
SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AT BEST. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES               
SHOW THE OPERATIONAL RUN TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PRECIP...SO            
AM CONTINUING ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE                    
CWA...WITH SLT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS LIS                 
DROPPING TO JUST NEAR ZERO AND WITH ABOUT 100-200 J/KG OF CAPE                  
PROJECTED. SOME T-STORM ACTIVITY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH                   
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST            
FOR NOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CAA WILL DROP 850 TEMPS...ALLOWING                
LOWER MAX TEMPS ON THURS...YET STILL VERY COMFORTABLE AND STILL                 
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR              
THURSDAY AS WELL AS A 1026 MB HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE                  
SYSTEM.                                                                         
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS             
FOR THE WEEKEND. YESTERDAYS MODELS RUNS SEEMED TO CUT THIS FEATURE              
OFF QUICKER...SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS. TODAY/S 12Z EURO SHOWS             
THIS NEXT FEATURE BEING A LOT MORE PROGRESSIVE...MOVING IT ACROSS               
THE REGION ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO            
SHOWS THIS FEATURE CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND AFFECTING             
OUR WEATHER STARTING LATE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT            
WEEK. WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO               
SHOW JUST CHC POPS FOR -SHRA ACROSS THE CWA STARTING ON SATURDAY AND            
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                      
IN GENERAL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE PRECIP AVERAGING                
BELOW NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
FOR KGFL TO KALB...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR            
IDEAL FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS.  THIS DOES CHANGE FOR KPOU.                
WITH SOUTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE MARINE                    
INFLUENCE OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE                    
ATLANTIC...A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC.  LATEST              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/WRF AND RUC13 SUGGEST THIS IFR                  
CEILING WILL BECOME PREVALENT OVERNIGHT AND WILL REINTRODUCE THOSE              
1000 FOOT CIGS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS             
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON PM-WED...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.                                      
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.                            
THU...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF            
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES               
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.                                                        
A MARINE AIRMASS DID BRING HIGHER RH HUMIDITY VALUES TO MOST OF THE             
REGION SOUTH TODAY...AS WELL AS STRATUS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.            
OVERALL...RH VALUES WERE ABOUT 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN SATURDAY.                 
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WITH              
LESS OF A MARINE INFLUENCE...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP BACK INTO            
THE 30S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY....THEN RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 90              
PERCENT ON MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP BACK AROUND 30 PERCENT BY                   
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                              
A SSE SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT MOST PLACES                           
OVERNIGHT...THEN RESUME FROM THE SE 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY AND AGAIN             
TUESDAY AFTER BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM MONDAY NIGHT.                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE HUDSON            
RIVER AT SCHUYLERVILLE AND FORT EDWARD...THE SCHROON RIVER AT                   
RIVERBANK AND SACANDAGA RIVER AT THE RESERVOIR.  WARM TEMPERATURES              
AND THE SNOWMELT ARE THE CULPRIT WITH STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER             
EQUIVALENT REMAINING IN HERKIMER COUNTY /ADIRONDACKS/ INCLUDING THE             
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.  SO EXPECT RIVER LEVELS IN OUR             
NY CWA AT THESE LOCATIONS TO REMAIN HIGH INCLUDING INDIAN                       
LAKE...NORTH CREEK AND PERHAPS THE WEST CANADA CREEK WITH THE RUNOFF            
FROM THE MOUNTAINS.                                                             
WE WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER MILD SO UNTIL THE SNOWPACK COMPLETELY               
ERODES...RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR                    
RAINFALL ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HWJIV                                                               
SHORT TERM...HWJIV                                                              
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV                                                            
HYDROLOGY...BGM                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
122 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP THE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER               
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND                
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...DUE TO AN EAST TO                      
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS                
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.             
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES                
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...                                       
MARINE INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PLAQUE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH AN              
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK.  THIS WILL CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND            
CURRENT TRENDS FROM THE 1KM VISIBLE SUGGEST THIS CLOUD DECK IS                  
ADVANCING NORTHWARD.  WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER UPWARD FOR THE ENTIRE             
CWA AND DROP TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY BY A FEW DEGREES.                         
HOWEVER...WITH BREAKS AND THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD                              
COVER...TEMPERATURES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE MID                
HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TAP OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...NO                 
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
THE REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST NORTH OR JUST POLEWARD            
OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO HOLD                
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  THE CUTOFF GETS STEERED AND DIRECTED                   
FURTHER SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAT IT WILL BE PUSHED BACK             
TOWARD SC AND FL. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE AT H500                    
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  MIN TEMPS SUNDAY             
EVENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS.  SOME               
CIRRUS WILL BE LINGERING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE CALM.             
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFSMOS MINS               
WITH 30S OVER THE HILLS...MTNS...SRN VT...AND THE LAKE GEORGE                   
REGION....WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.                                      
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPS STILL             
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF              
THE GULF OF MAINE IN CONTROL.  TUESDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE A BIT               
CHILLY WITH SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM AIR...MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY/PARCHED SOIL IN SOME LOCATIONS.  WE WENT 1-3              
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFSMOS TEMPS.  TUESDAY TEMPS COULD SKIP UP A            
LITTLE WARMER IN THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS /60S OVER THE HILLS AND             
MTNS/ WITH GOOD DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FROM 850 MB /TEMPS AROUND +8C/             
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.                                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM ERN ONTARIO...THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH...MAKES A RUN AT THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...THE FRONT               
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO THROUGH SOME FRONTALYSIS RUNNING INTO THE HIGH            
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  IT DOESN/T               
APPEAR ANY PCPN WITH THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE WED             
PM INTO THE EVENING /IF THAT/ BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF. WE JUST                   
INCREASED SOME CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WED MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND            
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE PUSHING INTO RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A                    
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A            
STRONG PACIFIC SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.             
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS FEATURE BUT             
THERE STILL ARE FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE                  
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH PACIFIC ENERGY                   
ACTUALLY CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE UPPER MID WEST BY FRIDAY. BOTH              
MODELS BREAK RIDGE DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR                
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE                  
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
FOR KGFL TO KALB...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR            
IDEAL FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS.  THIS DOES CHANGE FOR KPOU.                
WITH SOUTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE MARINE                    
INFLUENCE OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE                    
ATLANTIC...A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC.  LATEST              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/WRF AND RUC13 SUGGEST THIS IFR                  
CEILING WILL BECOME PREVALENT OVERNIGHT AND WILL REINTRODUCE THOSE              
1000 FOOT CIGS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS             
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON PM-WED...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.                                      
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.                            
THU...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
...SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TODAY UP TO 20 MPH IN PERSISTENT DRY                
PATTERN...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION            
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN               
NEW ENGLAND HAS NOT RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN ABOUT A WEEK.               
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO             
DAYS...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE             
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE               
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.  EAST OR SOUTHEAST                
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 MPH.                
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT             
MONDAY MORNING...THEN LOWER TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.               
EXPECT THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT                
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.                                    
THERE HAVE BEEN MANY BRUSH FIRES ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS            
WITH THE MOST NOTABLE ONE TAKING PLACE DOWN IN CENTRAL ULSTER COUNTY            
IN MINNEWASKA PARK.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT            
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOWMELT FROM AREAS IN             
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK STILL REMAINS WITH SNOW             
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF THREE TO ISOLATED TEN INCH AMOUNTS.                       
WATER STORED IN SCHROON...BRANT...AND THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKES HAS             
RESULTED IN CONTINUED FLOODING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER FROM SCHROON             
LAKE TO THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER FROM GLENS                
FALLS TO STILLWATER...INCLUDING THE STILLWATER FLATS. THE HUDSON                
WILL ALSO BE VERY CLOSE TO FLOOD AT MECHANICVILLE. EAST CANADA CREEK            
WILL BE NEAR BANKFULL AND WEST CANADA CREEK WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO              
BANKFULL FROM HINCKLEY DOWNSTREAM TO THE MOHAWK RIVER.                          
SNOW MELT IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAS BOOSTED RIVER FLOWS ON            
THE BATTENKILL...WALLOOMSAC...WILLIAMS...SAXTONS...WEST...AND                   
DEERFIELD RIVERS BUT THOSE RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD.                      
LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH A DRY AIR MASS            
HOLDING OVER THE EAST COAST.                                                    
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND THE AHPS GRAPHICS ON            
THE WEBSITE FOR CURRENT DETAILS ON SPECIFIC RIVERS AND WARNINGS.                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WASULA                                                               
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...WASULA                                                             
LONG TERM...IAA                                                                 
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA                                                           
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/RCK                                                          
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 830 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                               
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO AND SLOPES UP TO SOUTHERN                
INDIANA IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED             
FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS BECOME LESS                 
DISTINCT AS WINDS DECREASE. DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IS NOW                     
MOISTENING UP WITH DEWPOINTS NOW RISING TOWARD 50. MANY AREAS EAST              
OF INTERSTATE 55 HAVE CLEARED OUT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL              
COOLING THIS EVENING. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION             
OF FOG OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE OVER MANY AREAS.                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE SHORT-RANGE RUC MODEL SUPPORT THIS                  
SCENERIO AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY                
BECOMES REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE              
UNTIL THE AERIAL EXTENT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. AREAS OF THE WEST               
THAT DID NOT REALLY CLEAR OUT MAY NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA.                   
FORECASTS ALREADY MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT...SO WILL LET THAT RIDE               
FOR THE MOMENT. RADAR DATA SHOWS ONLY A FEW WEAKENING SPITS OF                  
DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE SO NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE                        
POPS...WHICH HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE ENDING AT MIDNIGHT. WILL SEND OUT A             
ZONE FORECAST UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING TO FRESHEN UP THE TEMPORAL              
WORDING...AND WILL ALSO MONITOR FOG TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADVISORIES.           
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                              
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH DIED                 
OUT...AND AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE THE REMAINDER OF THE            
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING FOG WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY              
OVER AREAS THAT HOLD ON TO CLEAR SKIES THE LONGEST. SCT-BKN                     
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN WITH 500-1500 FT CIGS               
BECOMING COMMON. ALSO EXPECT VSBYS AT OR BELOW 1SM IN FOG. FOG AND              
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO SCT-BKN 1500-2500 FT STRATOCU DECK             
14Z-18Z SUN...THEN FILL IN AGAIN SOMEWHAT WITH SURFACE HEATING. THE             
BEST CHANCES FOR LOWER CLOUDS AFTER 00Z MON WILL BE OVER THE                    
EAST...CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL              
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z MON...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT VSBYS            
AS LOW AS THIS MORNING.                                                         
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                            
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF MATTOON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE            
CIRCULATION SHOWING UP RATHER NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.              
MSAS INDICATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAD WEAKENED TO AN                
OPEN TROUGH AT 2 PM...AND SFC WIND FIELDS SUGGEST WEAK CIRCULATION              
AT THE SFC ROUGHLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR MATTOON.                  
PLENTY OF BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE                   
REGION... ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. IN AREAS              
WHERE THE SUN HAS PEEKED THROUGH...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY                    
REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.                                        
A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE                
ILLINOIS RIVER WHERE TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED THE MOST. IL STATE POLICE             
EARLIER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE CELL                
OVER LA SALLE COUNTY IN THE LOT CWA. LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES                    
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER OF 1.0+ OVER THAT AREA ... NOT                  
SURPRISING GIVEN SFC TEMP OF 64F AT KVYS LEADING TO GREATER                     
INSTABILITY WITHIN AN ARC OF ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL THAT                 
EXISTS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY PER LAPS. ALL THIS MAKES SENSE                
CONSIDERING ENHANCED VORTICITY WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA.                    
GIVEN OBSERVATIONS...WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE A FUNNEL            
CLOUD REPORT SHOULD WE MANAGE TO GET SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS              
TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...             
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER             
SUNDOWN... AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER             
SUNDOWN AS WELL.                                                                
DRIER WX AND WARMING TEMPS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE            
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF OUR               
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.                                                            
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW BANDS OF ENHANCED CU                  
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES AND TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 F.                    
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                           
LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL DEPICTING STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE                   
NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.            
THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE            
CONUS...BUT PERSISTENT RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PREVENT              
ANY REALLY STRONG DISTURBANCES FROM COMING THROUGH.                             
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST PUSHING             
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.                              
LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING...BUT SUGGEST             
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCKING RIDGE OFF THE WEST              
COAST...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY A                  
STRONGER REINFORCING WAVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE                     
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEYOND THURSDAY GIVEN THE RATHER COMPLICATED                 
UPSTREAM PATTERN. EITHER WAY...THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DOES LOOK TO              
BE RATHER QUIET CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR.                                   
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.          
12Z MAPS CONTINUE TO DIG THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE                 
WESTERN CONUS, WITH A 110 KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AND 140 M                
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NV. AT 700 AND 850MB, WARM TEMPS OF 9 C AND 21              
C RESPECTIVELY HAVE MOVED UP INTO WESTERN KS. AT THE SFC, THERE                 
WAS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW OVER EASTERN WY, AND                
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS OF 50 PLUS CLOSE TO THE              
RED RIVER. THE TRULY RICH MOISTURE WAS STILL DOWN OVER CENTRAL                  
KS. EVEN WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT, WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS                
EXPECTED THUS FAR. THE NAM AND RUC ARE ADVERTISING A SURGE OF                   
25 PLUS KTS AROUND 21Z, BUT AM ON THE FENCE ABOUT KEEPING THE                   
ADVISORY.  TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE MAIN TROUGH IN               
THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE               
SFC TROUGH EASTWARD AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA BY                  
EARLY MORNING. WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE TONIGHT, DON`T THINK THAT                 
WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO                
THE NORTH AND WE SHOULD GET SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING IN TOWARDS                
MORNING. KEPT LOWS IN THE 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE 50S IN THE                
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SFC                
LOW RE-DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF EHA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE              
NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER, AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING UPSLOPE.              
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER, AND WITH SUNSHINE, WE SHOULD              
GET BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE NORTH, WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE              
OK BORDER CLOSE TO THE FRONT. WINDS COULD PICK UP AGAIN BY MONDAY               
AFTERNOON, WITH THE NAM AND RUC BOTH GETTING CLOSE TO 25 KTS FOR                
BRIEF PERIODS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BORDERLINE CASE SO                
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE                    
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING, AND UPSLOPE                
FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME STRATUS NEAR OR INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN                    
COUNTIES. DO NOT AT THIS POINT THINK THAT WE WILL GET ANY PRECIP                
FROM IT, BUT CONTINUED WITH THE SILENT POPS WE HAD GOING. FLOW                  
WILL BECOME NEAR ZONAL BY TUESDAY, WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN                
BEHIND THE FRONT.  850MB TEMP WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE TEENS,                 
AND ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE              
70S.                                                                            
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST DECISION CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES DAYS 3 AND               
4...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES THE SAME TIME FRAME.                             
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE PLAINS             
ON LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  OUR CWA IS ON THE                
BASE PORTION OF THE TROUGH SO MOST CONVECTIVE ACTION WILL BE NORTH              
OF US INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE EAST OF DDC`S CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.               
SO THE 20 POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SEEM APPROPRIATE AND INCREASING              
TO 30 POPS IN OUR EASTERN 2/3RDS CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS THURSDAY              
HEAT UP INTO THE 80S...MORE CONVECTION COULD POP MAINLY IN THE                  
EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DUE TO MORE MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE.  WILL             
ESSENTIALLY DROP ALL MENTION OF POPS BY 18Z FRIDAY AS ANY FRONT                 
SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF US AND THE UPPER WAVE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS.            
AFTER DAY 5...WE WILL BE BACK INTO A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH             
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH.  SOMEWHERE ON               
LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 (SAT-SUN)...A TROUGH LOOKS TO COME OFF THE                
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW                    
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE INTRODUCED 10 POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO DAY 8            
(MON).  WITH THIS SYSTEM...BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE KEY FOCUS AREAS               
FOR CONVECTION AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TROUGH                   
MATERIALIZES.                                                                   
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU THE PERIOD...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN             
THE 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY RANGE THRU 01Z OR SO.  WINDS WILL BECOME             
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SETTLE TO AROUND 15KTS FOR THE               
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  47  71  45  72 /   0   0  10   0                                           
GCK  44  70  44  70 /   0   0  10   0                                           
EHA  42  75  44  73 /   0   0  10   0                                           
LBL  44  75  45  73 /   0   0  10   0                                           
HYS  45  70  44  71 /   0   0  10   0                                           
P28  53  77  52  76 /   0   0  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-               
064>066-078>081-087>090.                                                        
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR                     
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/12/12                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1130 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD TEMP/DP/WIND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD              
AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURE FORECAST DISCREPANCY STILL SHOWING UP                  
WITH REGARD TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. RUC WANTS TO KEEP THE HIGHER                
DEWPOINTS UP AGAINST THE COLORADO/KS BORDER WHERE ITS ALSO                      
FORECASTING LOWER WIND SPEEDS. NAM/RUC13 WANT TO PUSH THEM FURTHER              
EAST AND BRING THE EXPECTED HIGHER AND DRIER WINDS WITH THEM. NAM               
MIXING DEPTH TO 600MB OR SO VERIFIES OK WITH CURRENT SINGLE DIGIT               
DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. HAVE BLENDED IT WITH OTHER               
GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.                                               
AT 17Z THE SURFACE TROUGH HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF FAR EASTERN                  
COLORADO AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE BORDER WHERE LOWER                
DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER/GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY DEVELOPED.                 
WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWLY PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY EAST                
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND ADVISORY OVER GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES MAY              
BE BORDERLINE BUT WILL ALLOW IT TO CONTINUE. AFTERNOON TEMPS                    
GENERALLY 80-85.                                                                
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR KGLD SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20G30KTS. AT KMCK                 
SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15G25KTS. BETWEEN 01-02Z BOTH                  
SITES WILL LOSE THE GUSTS. BETWEEN 06Z-08Z A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO               
THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15G25KTS WITH                 
THE INITIAL PUSH. SHORTLY THEREAFTER MAY LOSE SOME OF THE                       
GUSTINESS. BY 17Z WINDS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AT                  
15-20KTS WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD.                                        
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
AT 17Z RH VALUES ALREADY BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF A WRAY COLORADO               
TO GOODLAND AND LEOTI KANSAS LINE. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20               
TO 30 MPH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND               
DRIER AIR WITH RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT (LOWEST ACROSS                      
COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN KS) WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD                   
EAST TOWARD GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD                
SHAPE AND WILL UPDATE FWFGLD PRODUCT SHORTLY.                                   
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR                
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.                                        
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.                  
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR                
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
415 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS DECK OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER OF                    
COUNTIES AND THEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT               
ARE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES COLD CORE LOW CONTINUING SLOWLY OFF               
TO THE EAST. LAST REMNANTS OF MOISTURE WERE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH               
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...GENERALLY OVER AREAS EAST              
OF HIGHWAY 75 AT 07Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH                   
SLOWLY EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THIS MORNING ALLOWING WEAK                  
RIDGING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. EXPECT STRATUS TO LINGER              
JUST WEST OF THE KS/MO BORDER AROUND SUNRISE...SO HAVE KEPT SOME                
CLOUD COVER IN AROUND 12Z FOR LAWRENCE AND OTTAWA TO START OFF THE              
DAY. 06Z RUC INDICATES THAT STRATUS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY                
15Z...SO FROM 15Z ON HAVE SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                
ASSUMING STRATUS HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED BY MID                  
MORNING HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH               
SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS LINGERS THIS MORNING. WINDS               
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS                      
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LEE                     
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SENDING SURFACE                
RIDGE EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.                                             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS AN                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS                 
SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN                  
THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE TROUGH              
ON SUNDAY BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER                  
THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE                 
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.                                                         
BY SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS INDICATE THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW                  
FINALLY TAPS INTO DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...AND RAPID LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST IN ALL GUIDANCE. ECMWF              
AND NAM WERE ABOUT 3-6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE                 
RETURN WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO ADOPT                 
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ASSOCIATED                           
STRATACUMULUS DECK...SO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER AROUND 06Z                    
MONDAY...AND THEN BROUGHT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH BY 12Z OVER THE                 
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                                           
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER                  
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SENDING THE LEE TROUGH/COLD                
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS CENTRAL KS              
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO               
SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO                
STALL OUT AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE                  
SPEED OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT PROGRESSES BEFORE                   
STALLING OUT REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH PROGRESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF                
ADVERTISING FASTER SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS OFFERS A SLOWER FRONTAL              
MOVEMENT SOLUTION. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH                
THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL BRING RENEWED PRESSURE FALLS                 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL                        
DEFINITELY STALL ANY POTENTIAL PROGRESS THE FRONT WAS MAKING...AND              
POTENTIALLY CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS              
AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT               
GULF MOISTURE AND BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL DESTABILIZE THE               
ATMOSPHERE...SO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT IS VERY IMPORTANT               
FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 24 HOURS OF                     
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW A STRONG EML WILL BE IN PLACE OVER                 
THE FORECAST AREA...SO CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR THE               
CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WILL DEPEND ON                
THE PATH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO                 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH                
OF THE EML...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY                
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FACTORS NEEDING TO COME TOGETHER TO ENHANCE              
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MONDAY              
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THE STORMS                 
WOULD BE SEVERE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200-1800 J/KG                        
RANGE...AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH/SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS IN                
THE WARM SECTOR RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.              
WITH SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EML CAP BEING ERODED OR                     
OVERCOME WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING SVR WX IN THE HWO FOR NOW.                    
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AS                   
SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
ONCE AGAIN SURGES SOUTHEAST. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE                
GREATER MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE WORDING IN THE                   
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                          
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY FEEL                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON                   
POPS...JUST MENTIONING RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND              
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. REMOVED POPS              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH AT                
LEAST INTO AR AND OK BEFORE STALLING OUT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO               
THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY.                                                  
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS             
SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER STEADY PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER               
CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW SKIES TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR. THERE              
MAY BE SOME TEMPO CIGS AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE              
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH                 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE P6SM SKC AND LIGHT               
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.                                                      
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
950 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEARING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR                        
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF WESTERN KY.             
RAISED LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. OVER SW INDIANA...POCKETS             
OF CLEARING OCCURRED SURPRISINGLY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT                
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST ACROSS SW INDIANA.               
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF SE MISSOURI...WHERE SKIES             
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY WENT CALM IN MOST AREAS.             
REPLACED ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING WITH CHANCE OF SPRINKLES BASED ON              
RADAR TRENDS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008/...                     
SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/                                   
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THE 12Z 500              
MB LOW NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW            
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROF                      
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REG RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED               
LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...ACROSS THE MOST OF THE FA.              
VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOWS WITH THE              
TRAILING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALONG A LINE FROM THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH              
SGF TO KC. LDS CHART SHOWS NO CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES OVER THE                  
ENTIRE REGIONAL VIEW.                                                           
BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z SAT RUN OF THE NAM SHOW PRECIP OUT OF FA BY 00Z            
SUN. THE 14Z RUN OF THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. THE               
12Z SAT RUN OF THE GFS...INDICATES A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE EVV TO               
HOP CORRIDOR AS DOES THE 12Z SAT ECMWF...WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP            
AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE IN EXTREME EAST AFTER 00Z SUN AND MONITOR               
LATEST RADAR LOOP FOR EXACT CUTOFF LOCATION OF POPS...CLOSER TO                 
PRESS TIME OF COURSE.                                                           
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS                    
ADVERTISING FOR THE MOST PART. THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO                   
SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE AND                   
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF SO HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE              
AFOREMENTIONED. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF             
BRINGING NEG SFC LI`S TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST MOISTURE              
DOES NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST. SO HAVE LEFT POPS            
IN ALL NIGHT BUT TWEAKED THE COVERAGE TO THE WEST HALF. ATMOSPHERE              
REMAINS UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER.                
CAPE VALUES SOAR INTO THE 2000 J/KG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SO THAT              
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH CAPE DROPS OFF            
A GREAT DEAL TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL REMAINS IN THE 200 J/KG WITH               
NEG LI`S. THIS COMBINED WITH FRONT BISECTING THE ARE...WILL ALSO                
CONTINUE THUNDER. IN ADDITION IF THE 12Z GFS CAPES ARE CORRECT MIGHT            
BE A CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER TUESDAY...WILL MONITOR FOR SUCCESSIVE             
MODEL RUNS FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY               
EVENING.                                                                        
AS FOR SKY COVER BEGAN CLEARING LATE TODAY OVER SEMO AND SLOWLY                 
SPREAD CLEARING EASTWARD TO THE EVV AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. AS              
FOR TEMPS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.                  
LONG TERM... /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                       
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE            
FAVORED BY HPC AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS             
RESULTS IN SOME SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS. THE            
GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN GENERAL...ADVERTISING COLD             
FRONT PASSAGES EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.                                
A PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE REGIME IS             
FAVORED...WHICH LEADS TO A LESS ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE                          
WEDNESDAY...AND A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THE NEXT FRONT NOW FORECAST FOR             
LATE SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTS IN 20-30 POPS               
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN GENERAL...HAVE             
30S WITH THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...AND              
20S WHEN WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES              
WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE             
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EACH DAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE               
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE EVANSVILLE TRI              
STATE AREA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE               
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS WINDS GO CALM...FOG DEVELOPMENT                
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME AREAS LIKE KCGI POSSIBLY BECOMING LOCALLY            
DENSE.                                                                          
IN THE KEVV AND KOWB AREAS...MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED              
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN             
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING...BUT             
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM             
06Z-15Z. IN THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL WAFFLE 20-30 DEGREES OR SO               
EITHER SIDE OF DUE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...KH/DS                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/                                  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THE 12Z 500              
MB LOW NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW            
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROF                      
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REG RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED               
LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...ACROSS THE MOST OF THE FA.              
VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOWS WITH THE              
TRAILING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALONG A LINE FROM THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH              
SGF TO KC. LDS CHART SHOWS NO CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES OVER THE                  
ENTIRE REGIONAL VIEW.                                                           
BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z SAT RUN OF THE NAM SHOW PRECIP OUT OF FA BY 00Z            
SUN. THE 14Z RUN OF THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. THE               
12Z SAT RUN OF THE GFS...INDICATES A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE EVV TO               
HOP CORRIDOR AS DOES THE 12Z SAT ECMWF...WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP            
AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE IN EXTREME EAST AFTER 00Z SUN AND MONITOR               
LATEST RADAR LOOP FOR EXACT CUTOFF LOCATION OF POPS...CLOSER TO                 
PRESS TIME OF COURSE.                                                           
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS                    
ADVERTISING FOR THE MOST PART. THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO                   
SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE AND                   
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF SO HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE              
AFOREMENTIONED. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF             
BRINGING NEG SFC LI`S TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST MOISTURE              
DOES NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST. SO HAVE LEFT POPS            
IN ALL NIGHT BUT TWEAKED THE COVERAGE TO THE WEST HALF. ATMOSPHERE              
REMAINS UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER.                
CAPE VALUES SOAR INTO THE 2000 J/KG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SO THAT              
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH CAPE DROPS OFF            
A GREAT DEAL TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL REMAINS IN THE 200 J/KG WITH               
NEG LI`S. THIS COMBINED WITH FRONT BISECTING THE ARE...WILL ALSO                
CONTINUE THUNDER. IN ADDITION IF THE 12Z GFS CAPES ARE CORRECT MIGHT            
BE A CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER TUESDAY...WILL MONITOR FOR SUCCESSIVE MODEL       
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.            
AS FOR SKY COVER BEGAN CLEARING LATE TODAY OVER SEMO AND SLOWLY                 
SPREAD CLEARING EASTWARD TO THE EVV AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. AS              
FOR TEMPS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.                  
.LONG TERM... /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                      
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE            
FAVORED BY HPC AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS             
RESULTS IN SOME SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS. THE            
GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN GENERAL...ADVERTISING COLD             
FRONT PASSAGES EARLY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.                                
A PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE REGIME IS             
FAVORED...WHICH LEADS TO A LESS ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE                          
WEDNESDAY...AND A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THE NEXT FRONT NOW FORECAST FOR             
LATE SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTS IN 20-30 POPS               
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN GENERAL...HAVE             
30S WITH THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...AND              
20S WHEN WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES              
WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE             
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EACH DAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE               
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE EVANSVILLE TRI              
STATE AREA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE               
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS WINDS GO CALM...FOG DEVELOPMENT                
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME AREAS LIKE KCGI POSSIBLY BECOMING LOCALLY            
DENSE.                                                                          
IN THE KEVV AND KOWB AREAS...MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED              
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN             
THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING...BUT             
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM             
06Z-15Z. IN THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL WAFFLE 20-30 DEGREES OR SO               
EITHER SIDE OF DUE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KH/DS                                                                           
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
805 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION                    
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY                 
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC                 
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
ENSEMBLE OF SHORT TERMS MODELS (RUC/NAM/GFS) HAVE HANDLED THE                   
HEAVY PCPN BANDS ACROSS OUR FCST FAIRLY WELL UP TO THIS POINT.                  
A MORE WIDESPREAD AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN EARLIER THIS AM...                       
COINCIDING WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS/DEEPER CONVECTION                         
ORIGINATING FROM THE LOWER PTN OF THE GULF STREAM E OF THE FL                   
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED (LOWERED) DURING THE AFTN HOURS               
AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT CURVED AND SHIFTED FARTHER OFFSHORE...               
LIKELY DUE TO SOME DEGREE THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ AND ONSET               
OF DIFFERENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS                     
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER MAIN CONCENTRATION                    
REMAINS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SVR WX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...        
AS FAVORABLE LLVL THERMODYNAMICS (THETA-E ADVECTION) COINCIDES                  
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7 TO 7.5 C/KM BTWN                
700-500 MB)...AS THE COLD CORE/DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS E-NE-N                   
FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND INTO THE FCST AREA.                          
EXPECT THE MAIN BAND(S) OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO SHIFT FROM N-S TO               
A MORE NW-SE ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL                 
POTENTIAL BASICALLY ALON AND S OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. LOSS OF                    
DIURNAL EFFECTS (DIFFERENTIAL SFC HEATING) WOULD SUGGEST A                      
DIMINISHING TREND...HOWEVER PER RUC/NAM/GFS PROGS...DEVELOPMENT OF              
SUBTLE LLJ (25-30+ KTS BTWN 950-850 MB) WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER                   
DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED                 
NOT TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS BELIEVE THE                      
REGION(S) OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT (ALBEIT                   
SLOWLY).                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LOW                    
SLOWLY PIVOTS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. KEPT HIGH (>50%) POPS IN ALL               
AREAS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED OVER SC/SERN VA AND NERN                
NC...WHERE BEST QG FORCING AND LLVL THERMODYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED                 
TO BE).                                                                         
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION VERY SLOWLY MON NIGHT AND TUE...          
AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY SE AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SE COAST. WHILE               
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH PER WEAKENING DYNAMICS...CONTINUED              
DEEP E TO EVENTUALLY NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE MOISTURE                   
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PARTICULARLY AT LOW LEVELS. CONTINUED WITH               
FCST TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE ON TUE IN LIGHT OF THE                      
ANTICIPATED MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT            
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...UPR LOW DRIFTS WELL OFF TO THE ESE TUE               
NGT/ERLY WED. HOWEVER...MODEL SNDGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR                 
REMAINING IN PLACE AS OF 12Z WED...AND GNLY THESE AMPLIFIED FEATURES            
TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS THINK TO LEAVE THE REGION. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS            
FOR HIGHS BY ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES ON WED (MORE ON THE COAST)...AND HAVE            
RETAINED A 20% CHC FOR -RA IN THE SOUTHEAST.                                    
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPR RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM               
THE TN/OH VALLEY THU...AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY               
FRI. TRENDS STILL DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING TOO FAR NEWD                
INTO NEW ENGLND/ERN CANADA...SO WE SHOULD HAVE DRY CONDITIONS LATER             
WED AFTN INTO FRI AS SFC HIGH NOSES DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST.                  
TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 70S THU/FRI EXCEPT FOR COOLER CONDITIONS               
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LVL               
FLOW. RIDGING BREAKS DOWN FRI NGT/SAT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP               
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW MVG INTO THE GRT LAKES. HAVE BROADBRUSHED ENTIRE              
AREA W/ 30% POPS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT. KEEPING SUNDAY DRY AT THIS PT             
AS FRONT MOVES SE AND OFF THE COAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
IFR CONDS WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING ALONG AND               
EAST OF I-95...INCLUDING RIC...TO PERSIST FOR THIS AREA AT LEAST                
ON A PERIODIC BASIS THRU 02Z...MOSTLY MVFR AFTER THRU 06Z. OTHER                
SITES...SCT SHRA WITH ISOL EMBEDDED TSRA WITH MVFR CONDS THROUGH                
06Z.                                                                            
AFTER 06Z...XPCT CIGS TO DESCEND TO IFR AND VSBYS REDUCED TO IFR                
LATE TONIGHT WITH SHRA AND BR CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. FOR                       
MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/MVFR CIGS / MVFR VSBYS ACROSS           
AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO EAST/ONSHORE FLOW.                                       
ONSHORE FLOW (E/NE) CONT THRU AT LEAST TUES NIGHT...THEREFORE                   
IMPRVMNT TO AVN CONDS SLO TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS UPR LVL LO PRES                    
SLIDES AWAY FM RGN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TORNADO WATCH FOR CHES BAY THROUGH 05Z. XPCT DVLPMENT OF STORMS                 
IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                            
SCA FLAGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES BEGINNING THIS EVENG.                 
ON COASTAL WATERS...SEAS HAVE SLOWLY COME UP WITH BUOY 44009 REACHING 5         
FT AT 23Z...XPCT TO 4-5 FT LATER THIS EVENG (CURRENTLY SEAS ARE                 
RUNNING ARND 3 FT).                                                             
THEREAFTER...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW MON/TUE WILL ALLOW SEAS TO                
BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN COASTAL WTRS. POSITION OF             
SFC HIGH ACRS NEW ENGLAND STILL SUGGESTS GOING WITH A BIT MORE WIND             
THAN MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING...MAINLY 20-25 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 30             
KT AND SEAS COMING UP TO 9  FT NRN CSTL WTRS...6-8 FT ACRS SOUTH                
WHERE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY KEEP WINDS A BIT LOWER. EXPECT SEAS TO               
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST WED NGT...AND FOR NOW HAVE                   
EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES THRU 22Z TUE.                                        
TIDES... TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT FOR ANY TIDAL FLOODING                         
PRODUCTS...AT THIS PT LOOKING TO BE 1 FOOT ANOMALIES MON                        
NGT/TUE...ESP ACRS SRN BAY/AND CSTL WTRS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ012-013-               
     030.                                                                       
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-               
     061>064-067>076-079>083-087>090-092.                                       
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-        
     652-654-656-658.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BKH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BKH                                                                
LONG TERM...LKB                                                                 
AVIATION...BAJ                                                                  
MARINE...LKB/BAJ                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
929 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...AN UNEVENTFUL EVENING. WE FINALLY MANAGED TO SQUEEZE OUT              
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CU FROM GRAYLING/HTL WESTWARD...BUT NO SHOWERS.             
SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI...AND PARTS             
OF EASTERN UPPER. THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                 
ROTATING BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON...AND WILL ADJUST CLOUD GRIDS TO                
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SE IS ABOUT TO LOSE            
ITS INFLUENCE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES WILL               
SLIDE SE...AS A REX BLOCK FORMS OVER THE EAST COAST. CIRRUS WILL                
STOP ITS INROADS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES TO OUR                
SE...LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.                      
LOW LEVELS AREN/T QUITE AS DRY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND WE/LL SEE             
AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.             
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN READINGS THE LAST              
FEW NIGHTS.                                                                     
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION                 
TONIGHT...AROUND NW FLANK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE MID                   
ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS             
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...ALLOWING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN                   
NORTHWARD IN NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN            
A 5-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK AT TIMES FOR PLN/TVC...ESPECIALLY MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS STILL VFR THRU THE FORECAST.                              
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM SUN APR 20...                                  
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE                      
APPALACHIANS WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL               
NOAM.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE              
UPPER PENINSULA HAVE BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH LEAVING ALL OF                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  AMPLE SUNSHINE            
COMBINED WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO             
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH EVEN SOME                   
REPORTS OF LOW 80S AROUND WELLSTON/PRUDENVILLE/BELLAIRE.  RH LEVELS             
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVENT DROPPED QUITE AS LOW AS EXPECTED                 
YET...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 27-32F. MEANWHILE...ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK             
OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS ROTATING NE TOWARDS LAKE              
ERIE BUT IS HAVING TROUBLE PENETRATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS                
LOWER MICHIGAN.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST                   
CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                      
TONIGHT...UNDERCUTTING UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC             
COAST WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE              
GREAT LAKES.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARDS LAKE HURON AND NE LOWER/EASTERN                
UPPER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TO VARIOUS DEGREES THAT THE MOISTURE             
PLUME FALLS APART AS IT REACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS LESS              
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM IN THIS REGARD...AND THINK THAT THE NAM IS              
THE BETTER WAY TO GO GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL                  
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA              
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST.               
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.                                                      
TOMORROW...ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY IN STORE FOR NORTHERN                    
MICHIGAN.  A SMATTERING OF LOW-MID CLOUDS TO START THE                          
MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER INLAND AREAS FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.  ANY CU THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY A               
MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 600-700MB.  THIS CAP LOOKS POTENT ENOUGH TO               
KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE DESPITE A MORE MOIST PROFILE THAN TODAY            
AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZES ACROSS NW LOWER WITH               
THE PREVALENT NE FLOW.  HOWEVER...IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER            
40S MATERIALIZE...THEN CHANCES FOR A SHOWER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE             
LAKE BREEZE.  HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AWAY               
FROM THE LAKES.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
MON NIGHT THRU WED...PRIMARY FCST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES TUE            
AFTN/NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH            
LARGE GYRE ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENING UP THRU MON AFTN AS               
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY BRIEFLY UNDERCUTS BLOCKING RIDGE INTO                 
ALASKA...WITH REMNANT ENERGY SHEARING OUT THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE            
AFTN/EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THRU             
THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WED...WITH OBVIOUS INCREASING THREAT             
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. STILL APPEARS QG SUPPORT WILL SLIP                 
NORTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH WITH DECENT MOISTURE TAP PER WIDE OPEN             
WESTERN GULF AND MODEST SFC-700MB CONVERGENCE ALONG INCOMING                    
BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...IN LINE WITH                    
PERSISTENT TREND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BIGGEST                  
QUESTION REMAINS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS APPEARS               
DECENT HEATING LIKELY TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE (HIGHS UPR             
60S TO MID 70S) TUE AFTN...WHILE SFC-850MB THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO            
THE AREA. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE REGIME PER BACKING OF LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT...AS WELL AS MODEL HINTS OF                  
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DIFFICULT            
TO RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ACRS THE WESTERN CWA. FCST              
RAOBS WITH A 72/48 PARCEL (WHICH SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE) YIELD 200-300            
J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH ARGUABLY GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDOING MOISTURE                
JUST A TAD. IN EITHER CASE...CHANCY POPS CERTAINLY WARRANTED...                 
ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST TREND FOR GUIDANCE TO SPEED UP TIMING OF                 
ENTIRE SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE A QUICK END TO PRECIP BY SUNRISE WED AS               
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY TAKE HOLD...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE            
WAKE OF FROPA WITH 1000-500MB RH FALLING OFF THE TABLE TO AROUND 25%            
VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S                
WARRANTED FOR WED AFTN WITH QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION (H85 TEMPS             
DIP TO AROUND 3-5C PER GEFS MEAN - OPERATIONAL GFS WAY TOO                      
COOL)...THOUGH LIKELY OFFSET BY INSOLATION OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AFTN              
CU GIVEN THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD.                                               
LATER PERIODS (WED NIGHT THRU SUN)...RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN TO                   
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL                
RIDGING ACRS ALASKA FAVORING DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVR CENTRAL                   
CANADA...WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE                
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP...THOUGH             
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN             
CONUS TROUGH. STILL APPEARS A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS LOW/MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE             
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOULD END UP BEING A RATHER SUNNY                     
DAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME POTENTIAL INCREASE IN JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS BY                
AFTN...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL APPEARING TO BE JUST A TOUCH TOO             
COOL GIVEN EXPECTED INSOLATION. THEREAFTER...INCREASING PRECIP                  
CHANCES IN ORDER FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS ENERGY UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC               
BLOCKING RIDGE AIDS IN KICKING WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD...WITH                   
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT/SFC FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE               
ACRS THE PLAINS BEFORE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES.                  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY ON FRI WITH REGION FALLING IN              
THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...AND HAVE THUS GONE               
ABOVE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH                 
INCOMING FRONT...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH              
SOME REMAINING TIMING ISSUES.                                                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
733 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...WILL SEE SCT MID CLOUDS ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION                 
TONIGHT...AROUND NW FLANK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE MID                   
ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS             
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...ALLOWING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN                   
NORTHWARD IN NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN            
A 5-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK AT TIMES FOR PLN/TVC...ESPECIALLY MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS STILL VFR THRU THE FORECAST.                              
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM SUN APR 20...                                       
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE                      
APPALACHIANS WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL               
NOAM.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE              
UPPER PENINSULA HAVE BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH LEAVING ALL OF                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  AMPLE SUNSHINE            
COMBINED WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO             
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH EVEN SOME                   
REPORTS OF LOW 80S AROUND WELLSTON/PRUDENVILLE/BELLAIRE.  RH LEVELS             
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVENT DROPPED QUITE AS LOW AS EXPECTED                 
YET...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 27-32F. MEANWHILE...ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK             
OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS ROTATING NE TOWARDS LAKE              
ERIE BUT IS HAVING TROUBLE PENETRATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS                
LOWER MICHIGAN.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST                   
CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                      
TONIGHT...UNDERCUTTING UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC             
COAST WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE              
GREAT LAKES.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARDS LAKE HURON AND NE LOWER/EASTERN                
UPPER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TO VARIOUS DEGREES THAT THE MOISTURE             
PLUME FALLS APART AS IT REACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS LESS              
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM IN THIS REGARD...AND THINK THAT THE NAM IS              
THE BETTER WAY TO GO GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL                  
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA              
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST.               
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.                                                      
TOMORROW...ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY IN STORE FOR NORTHERN                    
MICHIGAN.  A SMATTERING OF LOW-MID CLOUDS TO START THE                          
MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER INLAND AREAS FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.  ANY CU THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY A               
MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 600-700MB.  THIS CAP LOOKS POTENT ENOUGH TO               
KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE DESPITE A MORE MOIST PROFILE THAN TODAY            
AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZES ACROSS NW LOWER WITH               
THE PREVALENT NE FLOW.  HOWEVER...IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER            
40S MATERIALIZE...THEN CHANCES FOR A SHOWER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE             
LAKE BREEZE.  HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AWAY               
FROM THE LAKES.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
MON NIGHT THRU WED...PRIMARY FCST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES TUE            
AFTN/NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH            
LARGE GYRE ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENING UP THRU MON AFTN AS               
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY BRIEFLY UNDERCUTS BLOCKING RIDGE INTO                 
ALASKA...WITH REMNANT ENERGY SHEARING OUT THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE            
AFTN/EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THRU             
THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WED...WITH OBVIOUS INCREASING THREAT             
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. STILL APPEARS QG SUPPORT WILL SLIP                 
NORTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH WITH DECENT MOISTURE TAP PER WIDE OPEN             
WESTERN GULF AND MODEST SFC-700MB CONVERGENCE ALONG INCOMING                    
BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...IN LINE WITH                    
PERSISTENT TREND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BIGGEST                  
QUESTION REMAINS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS APPEARS               
DECENT HEATING LIKELY TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE (HIGHS UPR             
60S TO MID 70S) TUE AFTN...WHILE SFC-850MB THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO            
THE AREA. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE REGIME PER BACKING OF LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT...AS WELL AS MODEL HINTS OF                  
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DIFFICULT            
TO RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ACRS THE WESTERN CWA. FCST              
RAOBS WITH A 72/48 PARCEL (WHICH SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE) YIELD 200-300            
J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH ARGUABLY GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDOING MOISTURE                
JUST A TAD. IN EITHER CASE...CHANCY POPS CERTAINLY WARRANTED...                 
ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST TREND FOR GUIDANCE TO SPEED UP TIMING OF                 
ENTIRE SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE A QUICK END TO PRECIP BY SUNRISE WED AS               
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY TAKE HOLD...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE            
WAKE OF FROPA WITH 1000-500MB RH FALLING OFF THE TABLE TO AROUND 25%            
VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S                
WARRANTED FOR WED AFTN WITH QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION (H85 TEMPS             
DIP TO AROUND 3-5C PER GEFS MEAN - OPERATIONAL GFS WAY TOO                      
COOL)...THOUGH LIKELY OFFSET BY INSOLATION OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AFTN              
CU GIVEN THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD.                                               
LATER PERIODS (WED NIGHT THRU SUN)...RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN TO                   
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL                
RIDGING ACRS ALASKA FAVORING DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVR CENTRAL                   
CANADA...WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE                
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP...THOUGH             
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN             
CONUS TROUGH. STILL APPEARS A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS LOW/MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE             
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOULD END UP BEING A RATHER SUNNY                     
DAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME POTENTIAL INCREASE IN JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS BY                
AFTN...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL APPEARING TO BE JUST A TOUCH TOO             
COOL GIVEN EXPECTED INSOLATION. THEREAFTER...INCREASING PRECIP                  
CHANCES IN ORDER FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS ENERGY UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC               
BLOCKING RIDGE AIDS IN KICKING WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD...WITH                   
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT/SFC FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE               
ACRS THE PLAINS BEFORE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES.                  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY ON FRI WITH REGION FALLING IN              
THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...AND HAVE THUS GONE               
ABOVE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH                 
INCOMING FRONT...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH              
SOME REMAINING TIMING ISSUES.                                                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
316 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED LOW               
OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE              
CENTRAL NOAM.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE                 
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA HAVE BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH LEAVING              
ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  AMPLE              
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES              
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH EVEN              
SOME REPORTS OF LOW 80S AROUND WELLSTON/PRUDENVILLE/BELLAIRE.  RH LEVELS        
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVENT DROPPED QUITE AS LOW AS EXPECTED                 
YET...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 27-32F. MEANWHILE...ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK             
OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS ROTATING NE TOWARDS LAKE              
ERIE BUT IS HAVING TROUBLE PENETRATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS                
LOWER MICHIGAN.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST                   
CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                      
TONIGHT...UNDERCUTTING UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC             
COAST WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE              
GREAT LAKES.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARDS LAKE HURON AND NE LOWER/EASTERN                
UPPER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TO VARIOUS DEGREES THAT THE MOISTURE             
PLUME FALLS APART AS IT REACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS LESS              
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM IN THIS REGARD...AND THINK THAT THE NAM IS              
THE BETTER WAY TO GO GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL                  
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA              
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST.               
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.                                                      
TOMORROW...ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY IN STORE FOR NORTHERN                    
MICHIGAN.  A SMATTERING OF LOW-MID CLOUDS TO START THE                          
MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER INLAND AREAS FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.  ANY CU THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY A               
MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 600-700MB.  THIS CAP LOOKS POTENT ENOUGH TO               
KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE DESPITE A MORE MOIST PROFILE THAN TODAY            
AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZES ACROSS NW LOWER WITH               
THE PREVALENT NE FLOW.  HOWEVER...IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER            
40S MATERIALIZE...THEN CHANCES FOR A SHOWER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE             
LAKE BREEZE.  HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AWAY               
FROM THE LAKES.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
MON NIGHT THRU WED...PRIMARY FCST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES TUE            
AFTN/NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH            
LARGE GYRE ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENING UP THRU MON AFTN AS               
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY BRIEFLY UNDERCUTS BLOCKING RIDGE INTO                 
ALASKA...WITH REMNANT ENERGY SHEARING OUT THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE            
AFTN/EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THRU             
THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WED...WITH OBVIOUS INCREASING THREAT             
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. STILL APPEARS QG SUPPORT WILL SLIP                 
NORTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH WITH DECENT MOISTURE TAP PER WIDE OPEN             
WESTERN GULF AND MODEST SFC-700MB CONVERGENCE ALONG INCOMING                    
BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...IN LINE WITH                    
PERSISTENT TREND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BIGGEST                  
QUESTION REMAINS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS APPEARS               
DECENT HEATING LIKELY TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE (HIGHS UPR             
60S TO MID 70S) TUE AFTN...WHILE SFC-850MB THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO            
THE AREA. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE REGIME PER BACKING OF LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT...AS WELL AS MODEL HINTS OF                  
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DIFFICULT            
TO RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ACRS THE WESTERN CWA. FCST              
RAOBS WITH A 72/48 PARCEL (WHICH SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE) YIELD 200-300            
J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH ARGUABLY GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDOING MOISTURE                
JUST A TAD. IN EITHER CASE...CHANCY POPS CERTAINLY WARRANTED...                 
ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST TREND FOR GUIDANCE TO SPEED UP TIMING OF                 
ENTIRE SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE A QUICK END TO PRECIP BY SUNRISE WED AS               
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY TAKE HOLD...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE            
WAKE OF FROPA WITH 1000-500MB RH FALLING OFF THE TABLE TO AROUND 25%            
VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S                
WARRANTED FOR WED AFTN WITH QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION (H85 TEMPS             
DIP TO AROUND 3-5C PER GEFS MEAN - OPERATIONAL GFS WAY TOO                      
COOL)...THOUGH LIKELY OFFSET BY INSOLATION OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AFTN              
CU GIVEN THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD.                                               
LATER PERIODS (WED NIGHT THRU SUN)...RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN TO                   
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL                
RIDGING ACRS ALASKA FAVORING DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVR CENTRAL                   
CANADA...WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE                
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP...THOUGH             
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN             
CONUS TROUGH. STILL APPEARS A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS LOW/MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE             
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOULD END UP BEING A RATHER SUNNY                     
DAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME POTENTIAL INCREASE IN JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS BY                
AFTN...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL APPEARING TO BE JUST A TOUCH TOO             
COOL GIVEN EXPECTED INSOLATION. THEREAFTER...INCREASING PRECIP                  
CHANCES IN ORDER FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS ENERGY UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC               
BLOCKING RIDGE AIDS IN KICKING WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD...WITH                   
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT/SFC FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE               
ACRS THE PLAINS BEFORE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES.                  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY ON FRI WITH REGION FALLING IN              
THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...AND HAVE THUS GONE               
ABOVE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH                 
INCOMING FRONT...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH              
SOME REMAINING TIMING ISSUES.                                                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 112 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008/                                
HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS                   
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                
APPALACHIANS WILL PINWHEEL NORTHWEST TOWARDS LAKE HURON TONIGHT.                
SOME 6-10KFT CLOUDS MAY REACH APN TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME                      
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT. ANY                   
CLOUDS WILL TRY TO EXIT TOMORROW MORNING. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS              
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                              
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
329 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER                 
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK               
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AWAY FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                 
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL WARMING/500 MB HEIGHT RISES...AS             
500 MB TEMP IS FORECASTED TO RISE TO -15 C THIS AFTERNOON...UP FROM             
THE -19 C WHICH THE 00Z DTX RAOB INDICATED. MEANWHILE...DEEP                    
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MODEST COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO DROP TO 8              
TO 10 C BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL WARMING AND LIMITED                   
MOISTURE...THINKING SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY...AND               
CERTAINLY DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS INSTABILITY                  
TODAY. BASED ON THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE                         
POOLING...THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS                   
LENAWEE/WASHTENAW COUNTIES. BUT EVEN THERE...DON`T SEE MUCH MORE                
THAN LOW CHANCE POPS. WITH RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE LAYER                       
PUSH...PLANNING TO GO DRY/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUMB REGION/NORTH             
HALF OF THE CWA.                                                                
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AFTER SUCCESSFULLY CHOOSING THE WARMER              
NAM TEMPS YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO TO LEAN TOWARD WARMER MAXES              
AS THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION...OFFSET BY THE                      
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND MARINE LAYER. WITH            
THOSE CONSIDERATIONS...FORESEE MAXES PREDOMINATELY AROUND 70/LOWER              
70S...EXCEPT MID 70S IN AND AROUND THE FLINT VICINITY.                          
INTERESTING TO NOTE...TODAY WILL MARK THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY                   
FLINT`S MAX WILL EXCEED 70 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF                       
OCCURRENCES (MAX GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS             
4...WITH THE RECORD BEING 11 DAYS (1977/1985). A LOOK AT THE                    
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS SHOWS MAXES CONTINUING              
TO RISE ABOVE 70. SO...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY HAVE COMPLAINED SPRING                 
ARRIVED A BIT LATE...WE CERTAINLY HAVE TURNED THINGS AROUND.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... PRECIPITATION               
THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE                
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVIDENT OVER                
SOUTHWEST LOWER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PARAMETERIZATIONS IMMEDIATELY              
KICK OFF A LARGE AREA OF QPF. OBVIOUSLY THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND              
WILL KEEP MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY ACROSS THE AREA.                                 
MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT FRONT INTO THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN             
THE NAM... BUT PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES. IN EITHER                
CASE... WILL KEEP CHANCE-TYPE POPS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                                           
A LOT OF UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN THE LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST.              
THE LAST THREE GFS CYCLES ARE ALL STICKING WITH A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM            
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ONTARIO... BUT HAVE JUMPED THE                
MAIN SURFACE VALID 18UTC FRIDAY FROM UPPER MICHIGAN TO NEAR JAMES               
BAY AND NOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. APPROACH OF SURFACE FRONT DURING             
THIS TIMEFRAME CERTAINLY SUPPRTIVE OF POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO                      
SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL A LITTLE UP IN            
THE AIR.  IF LATEST GFS CYCLE VERIFIES... EXPECT SIGNIFICANT                    
NEGATIVE TILT TO UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE             
OF SEVERE WEATHER - DESPITE MINIMAL PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY                     
INDICATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MAIN STORY FROM A MARINE STANDPOINT IS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER WATER             
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK. EVEN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY             
NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME... NOT ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION                 
EXPECTED TO REALLY MIX HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.                          
ADDITIONALLY... DON`T EXPECT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALLY                
TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME STABILITY CONCERNS... AHEAD OF OR                 
BEHIND THR FRONT.  BOTTOM LINE... EXPECTING A HARD TIME ACHIEVING               
EVEN SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS THIS WEEK ANYWHERE OVER LAKE HURON             
AND LAKE ST. CLAIR.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 100 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008 /                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER DRY. THE 00Z NAM AND RUC                 
SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BASED                
OFF THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. BOTH NAM AND RUC SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL                
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM              
CEILING HEIGHTS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER KENTUCKY. A WEAK AREA OF                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND                     
SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST DURING THE             
COURSE OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS...SOME SHALLOW FOG              
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THE 08Z AND 14Z TIME FRAME                
GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER 40 TO LOWER 50 SURFACE             
DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA. WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUDS                
AROUND FNT AND MBS...HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE BY              
DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...WILL RAISE FORECAST VISIBILITIES AROUND DTW               
SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE MORE EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD DECK.                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....05                                                                 
MARINE.......05                                                                 
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT)...                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF            
ALG THE W COAST AND BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA. CUTOFF LO             
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS MOVING E THRU THE OH VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER                 
SHRTWV IS LIFTING INTO WRN LK SUP. INTERACTION OF THIS SHRTWV/                  
ASSOCIATED UPR DVGC/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC WITH DEEPER MSTR SHOWN             
ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS CAUSING SCT -SHRA/QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD OVER             
THE NW HALF OF THE FA EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT 12Z GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW               
MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT TO THE SE ABV LINGERING SHALLOW MSTR. WITH            
SE H85 WINDS BTWN CUTOFF LO IN THE OH VALLEY AND HUDSON BAY HI                  
PRES...THIS DRY IS OVERSPRDG THE FA...HAS ENDED THE PCPN OVER THE               
SCNTRL AND E...AND IS TENDING TO DIMINISH THE SHRA COVG OVER THE NW.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT)...                        
FOR TNGT...GENERAL MSLP/UPR HGT RISES FCST OVER THE UPR LKS                     
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE W. WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW BTWN            
HUDSON BAY HI AND DEPARTING CLOSED LO IN THE OH VALLEY...EXPECT                 
DRIER AIR IN THAT DIRECTION TO CONTINUE MAKING INROADS ESE-WNW THRU             
THE FA. WL RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS THIS EVNG TO THE W BEFORE                   
DROPPING MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT OVER WRN LK SUP UNDER LINGERING                 
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO INCRSGLY SHEARED SHRTWV IMPACTING THAT AREA.              
EVEN THOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRYING OUT...SUSPECT THE LLVL MSTR WL            
BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. THIS LLVL MSTR WL BE MOST RESILIENT OVER THE             
NW IN AREAS WHERE LO CLDS HAVE LINGERED THRU THE DAY AND LIMITED                
INSOLATION/MIXING. SO WL FCST AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP DESPITE SOME                 
LINGERING HI CLD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DON`T APPEAR IDEAL FOR DENSE             
FOG FORMATION WITH FCST RELATIVELY SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI TO               
THE N AND LO IN THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY FOG OVER THE E                 
CONSIDERING THE DEEPER MIXING EVIDENT THERE THIS AFTN. WL TEND TO               
UNDERCUT MOS FCST LO TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE CORE OF            
THE DRIEST AIR.                                                                 
ON SUN...ACYC ENE FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS. WITH DRY AIR ABV            
THE SFC IN THE MRNG...INSOLATION SHOULD MIX OUT RADIATION FOG. BUT              
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP MIGHT TEND TO KEEP THE FOG/LO CLD MORE RESILIENT             
NEAR THE SHORE. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON GFS FCST SDNGS (NAM/GFS BOTH              
SHOW H85 TEMPS ARND 10C) WOULD SUPPORT HI TEMPS APRCHG 70 AWAY FM LK            
MODERATION AS OBSVD IN NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. BUT TEMPS NEAR LK SUP/             
THE GREEN BAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. SINCE GFS/NAM GENERATE              
SOME LGT QPF OVER NRN WI BTWN 18Z-24Z...CHECKED FOR THE POTENTIAL               
FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHRA. BUT EVEN FOR HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 70...             
UNABLE TO GET ANY SUBSTANTIVE CAPE WITH LLVLS DRIED BY MIXING AND               
WRMG MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG.                                                    
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT.  AT THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN AS THE TROUGH              
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THE TREND HAS CONTINUED...SLOWING THE ONSET OF               
PRECIPITATION DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  IN FACT...IT LOOKS                
MORE LIKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                
HITS THE WESTERN CWA.  HPC GUIDANCE BACKS THIS SCENARIO UP.                     
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE QUICKENED THINGS UP              
ROUGHLY 6 HOURS FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  COMPARED TO THE OTHER                
OPTIONS...THE GFS WAS QUICKER.  CAN NOT IGNORE THIS TREND...AND HAVE            
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WHILE ATTEMPTING TO NOT JUMP AROUND TOO MUCH             
DURING THIS PERIOD.                                                             
THE PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT NE INSTEAD OF STRAIGHT                        
EAST...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHERLY BROAD SCALE TROUGH FOR US                  
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL...CONTINUE TO               
LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND               
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS.                                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS THEN FIGURED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE               
DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY.  THEN AGAIN...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD             
EDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO NE MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z                   
SATURDAY.  THE GFS IS THEN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...TRYING TO DIVE               
THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WHILE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO                   
CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL E TO NE TRACK.                                          
FROM FRIDAY ON THE FORECAST BECOMES A BUGABOO.  WITH MODEL                      
VARIABILITY PRETTY HIGH...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT                
THIS TIME FRAME...WILL OPT TO UTILIZED HPC GUIDANCE HEAVILY.  THIS              
GENERALLY MEANT FOLLOWING A 00Z ECMWF FORECAST...WITH A BLEND OF ITS            
ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE LEAST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 36                     
HOURS...IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WERE ALSO THE                  
LOCATIONS WITH THE SMALLEST SNOWMELT CONCERNS. LOCATIONS TO THE                 
NORTH AND WEST RECEIVED BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF                     
RAINFALL...ADDING TO SNOWMELT GOING INTO ALREADY HIGH RIVERS. HIGHS             
IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT              
IN RIVER LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE. EVENING OBS ARE INLINE WITH                 
FORECASTS FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER...SO NO NOTABLE CHANGES                
HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING STATEMENTS. LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST                
CONCERN REMAIN THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON                
RIVER NEAR CHASSELL.                                                            
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS... PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                    
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FCST REMAINS CHALLENGING AT KSAW AND KCMX. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR                   
MANAGED TO SLIP INTO KSAW EARLY IN THE EVENING...RESULTING IN CIGS              
RISING TO VFR. CHECK OF KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL WINDS             
JUST OFF THE SFC HAVE VEERED MORE ERLY THAN EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR             
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYING. HOWEVER...NOT CONVINCED CIGS WILL            
REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. SINCE UPSTREAM SFC DWPTS ARE STILL                   
SIMILAR TO CURRENT TEMP AT KSAW...UPSLOPING WINDS MAY STILL RESULT              
IN LOW CIGS (LIFR) DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT              
WIND TO KEEP VIS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN MVFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.              
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY IN THE AFTN.                          
AT KCMX...A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST               
THRU THE NIGHT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO DROP             
TO LIFR IN FOG GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL EARLIER IN               
THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY IN THE AFTN.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC TO REMAIN NEARLY                
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN               
LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES            
BY LATE SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE             
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY                 
EVENING AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN                    
APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. FOR THE MOST               
PART...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT                    
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST IN THE ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING            
TROUGH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS               
WILL ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...TG/KC/ROLFSON                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
120 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                
PROGRESSING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDS OUR WAY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH                
DURING THE UPCOMING DAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH              
LAKE BREEZES DURING WINDS ONSHORE BY MIDDAY.                                    
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 920 PM SAT APR 19...                                           
UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A LESS                        
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES. WE REMAIN TOO FAR               
NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT. EARLIER (ABOUT 530PM)...THE              
LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE COLLIDED WITH A WELL-DEFINED HORIZONTAL ROLL...             
SPITTING OUT A SINGLE SHOWER THAT BROUGHT SOME RAINDROPS TO ACME AND            
MAPLETON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED IN W CENTRAL             
LOWER JUST AFTER THAT...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S (VS            
THE 30S UP HERE). THESE SHOWERS GRAZED THE MBL AREA. OTHERWISE...MID            
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND HAZY SKIES ARE THE RULE.                                    
GRIDS WERE UPDATED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE SW ZONES                
THRU 02Z/10PM. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE             
DRY. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS AT SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS...WHERE LAKE                
BREEZES HAVE GIVEN THEM A HEAD START IN COOLING OFF.                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM SAT APR 19...                                  
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL             
LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN IL-IN BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  BANDS OF MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                  
MICHIGAN WITH HOLES IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD APPEARING EVERY NOW AND                
THEN.  THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY                
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.  WITH PRECIP WELL TO THE                
SOUTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS                 
INCLUDE TEMPS AND SKY COVER TONIGHT...THEN SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP              
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOMORROW.                                          
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS IT CUTS                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOKE OF              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN                     
TONIGHT...BUT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF               
THE REGION.  THAT LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO THINK ABOUT.             
LOWS LAST NIGHT DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NE LOWER            
WHERE CLEAR SKIES HUNG ON THE LONGEST.  DO NOT THINK THAT WILL                  
HAPPEN TONIGHT DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD...EVEN THOUGH THIS CIRRUS               
WILL THIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO HAVE KEPT LOWS                   
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES OVER NE                  
LOWER.  LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                        
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS               
WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT                  
LAKES.  NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO SPEAK UP WITH THE BUILDING                    
RIDGE...BUT STILL HINTS THAT LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ACROSS            
THE SW CWA WITH PREVAILING EAST FLOW BUTTING HEADS AGAINST LAKE                 
BREEZES OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BOTH NAM/GFS              
SPIT OUT QPF CENTERED AROUND WEXFORD COUNTY...BUT THINK THIS IS MORE            
OF A BY-PRODUCT OF OVER-GENEROUS SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH BOTH                 
MODELS SHOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DEEP MIXING UP TO 775MB                    
SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO AROUND 48F.  USING A TEMP OF                 
72F...THIS WOULD YIELD SKINNY ML CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MORE              
MOIST NAM SOLUTION...WHILE THE DRIER GFS SUGGESTS TOO MUCH CIN WILL             
EXIST TO TRIGGER A SHOWER.  GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH             
THE DAY...LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE POPS               
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS RANGING                 
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH/NEAR LAKESHORES...TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.               
MPC                                                                             
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WX EXPECTED TO                
CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW FCST CONCERNS REMAIN...NAMELY TEMPS MON AFTN            
ALONG WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. POTENT CLOSED              
LOW SPINNING OVR SOUTHERN IN THIS AFTN PROGGED TO SLIP INTO VIRGINIA            
BY EARLY MON...WITH BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACRS THE LAKES             
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVR THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...                
CONCERN REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIP STEMS FROM BROAD PLUME OF WRAP               
AROUND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT                
TIMEFRAME...AS UPR GYRE ABLE TO TAP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE                
ATLANTIC. INTERESTING TO NOTE BOTH NAM AND GFS SPIT OUT A HINT OF               
MEASURABLE PRECIP SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON THOUGH DIFFICULT TO FORESEE               
THIS GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING...WITH            
ONLY SOME WEAK HINT OF CHANNELED VORT (REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW TO THE            
SOUTH TODAY) HEADING NORTH THRU THE NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY               
FCST AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO MON AFTN...APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY             
ON TAP WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR                  
TROUGH...THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF MIXING PER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS                 
DRAPED OVERHEAD SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREE OFF POTENTIAL HIGHS                   
(READINGS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S LOOK GOOD). DESPITE GOOD HEATING AND               
LIKELY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...                  
DIFFICULT TO SEE CONVECTION (OTHER THAN A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD)              
FIRING DESPITE AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AS MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDS THRU THE DAY.                                       
LATER PERIODS (TUE THRU SAT)...PATTERN TO REMAIN QUITE BLOCKY THRU              
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...OWING TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/                   
CLOSED MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN ALASKA...IMPLYING                   
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. INDEED...              
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO             
SUGGEST...WITH INITIAL CLOSED LOW (EVIDENT THIS AFTN NEAR THE                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON STATE BORDER) AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY                 
SHEARING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST ON TUE...OWING TO             
BRIEF DISRUPTION OF BLOCKING FLOW ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. END RESULT FOR NORTHERN MI WILL BE INCREASING              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND WEAKENING              
FORCING SLIDES THRU THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS                
WELL WITH EXPECTED DECENT MOISTURE TAP INTO THE AREA VIA OPEN                   
GULF...AND MODEL PROGS OF SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING WELL BELOW 0C               
ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME OVERHEAD. PONDERED                
BRINGING SMALL POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR TUE AFTN AS MOISTURE              
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CONVECTION              
TO POP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN EXPECTED HEATING AND LIKELY LOW              
LEVEL WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PER BACKING OF                
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH ANYTHING ISOLATED AT BEST SO DRY               
FCST WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS TUE IFFY PENDING DEGREE OF SUN...THOUGH               
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY WARM DAY WITH REGION IN THE THERMAL               
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL RUN WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S                    
AREAWIDE.                                                                       
STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS                
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKE HOLD.               
00Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED SUN...SO              
WILL RUN WITH TEMPS UPR 50S TO MID 60S. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE BEGINS            
TO DIVERGE ON AMPLITUDE OF ADDITIONAL WESTERN TROUGHING                         
THU/FRI...THOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH DEEP LAYER/MERIDIONAL                 
RIDGE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS ALASKA CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR THE              
ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS OF A DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF             
EVENTUAL SOLUTION...IMPLICATION FOR THE CWA IS ADDITIONAL PRECIP                
CHANCES FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ON THE                 
PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HEADING EAST BY THE WEEKEND.                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER DRY. THE 00Z NAM AND RUC                 
SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BASED                
OFF THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. BOTH NAM AND RUC SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL                
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM              
CEILING HEIGHTS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER KENTUCKY. A WEAK AREA OF                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND                     
SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST DURING THE             
COURSE OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS...SOME SHALLOW FOG              
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THE 08Z AND 14Z TIME FRAME                
GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER 40 TO LOWER 50 SURFACE             
DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA. WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUDS                
AROUND FNT AND MBS...HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE BY              
DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...WILL RAISE FORECAST VISIBILITIES AROUND DTW               
SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE MORE EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD DECK.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1000 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS BULK OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN                
JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IMPACTING                
ROUGHLY THE M 59 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS/ZONES                
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST TRENDS AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG AND                  
NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP FARTHER               
NORTH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SOME MID LEVEL                    
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER LOW BEGINS TO                 
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.                                                          
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH A                      
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO                
SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH                
WILL ALSO HELP IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE TO                 
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AROUND THE                 
TRI CITIES WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S THANKS TO THE               
MARINE LAYER THAT HAD ADVECTED INLAND OFF SAGINAW BAY.                          
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BUT                
CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT ALL OF SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.            
RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN ON MORE IMPRESSIVE            
AREAL COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS               
WHERE A RESPECTABLE COMBINATION OF FORCING IS COMING TOGETHER ON THE            
EAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. SATELLITE AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE            
UPPER LOW IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF BENDING THE LOW TO MID LEVEL                   
THETA-E RIDGE AND APPLYING SOME MODEST DYNAMIC FORCING TO THE                   
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS IS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES              
ALOFT AND SOME POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING GENERATING ENOUGH                     
INSTABILITY FOR ADDED SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG WITH A FEW                          
THUNDERSTORMS. NOW THAT IT IS UNDERWAY, THE PERSISTENCE OF                      
INSTABILITY INTO THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS/STORMS GOING AS             
THEY ROTATE TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER REGION OF SE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL             
OCCUR AS THE ENTIRE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTH OF            
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SLIGHTLY SE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN              
FROM MOVING VERY FAR NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BUT IS STILL WORTHY OF             
NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES.                              
LATER ON TONIGHT, EXPECT JUST A GENERAL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS            
IN THE NW PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL            
DEFORMATION OVER THE TOP OF THE FILLING SURFACE TROUGH/LOW. MORE                
IMPORTANT MIGHT BE THE PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD                    
SUNRISE. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND                  
GRADUALLY FILLS/DRIFTS NORTHWEST IT WILL PULL HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR               
INTO THE REGION WITH SOME POCKETS OF 1 MILE FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE            
NIGHT THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.                      
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING             
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEAKENS AND TRACKS EAST/SOUTHEAST. WITH MINOR            
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL SEEMS            
REASONABLE AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE FORECAST.               
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS             
FEATURE CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST...AND UPPER RIDGING AND             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO            
NEW ENGLAND.                                                                    
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...A BROAD WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE             
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A               
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT               
WEEK ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE INTO AND               
THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...BUT CONSISTENCY IS              
SOMEWHAT REASONABLE FOR THE FIRST COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES THROUGH              
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE FORECAST             
IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THIS SCENARIO.                                            
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE             
DEVELOPING AS A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE AUTHORITY. SUCH A FEATURE SHOULD              
BE ABLE TAP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF             
MEXICO...LEADING TO SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.              
FIRST...WITH THIS WARM/MOIST SURGE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM...AND                
THEN WITH THE STORM CENTER ITSELF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED                
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND            
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR               
THIS PART OF APRIL.                                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES              
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY FILL LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL            
CONFINE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE                  
TONIGHT, BUT WILL KEEP FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS OVER THE              
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODEST SE WINDS WILL             
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS            
IN THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY TO              
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT                
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS              
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
920 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A LESS              
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES. WE REMAIN TOO FAR               
NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT. EARLIER (ABOUT 530PM)...THE              
LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE COLLIDED WITH A WELL-DEFINED HORIZONTAL ROLL...             
SPITTING OUT A SINGLE SHOWER THAT BROUGHT SOME RAINDROPS TO ACME AND            
MAPLETON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED IN W CENTRAL             
LOWER JUST AFTER THAT...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S (VS            
THE 30S UP HERE). THESE SHOWERS GRAZED THE MBL AREA. OTHERWISE...MID            
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND HAZY SKIES ARE THE RULE.                                    
GRIDS WERE UPDATED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE SW ZONES                
THRU 02Z/10PM. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE             
DRY. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS AT SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS...WHERE LAKE                
BREEZES HAVE GIVEN THEM A HEAD START IN COOLING OFF.                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 710 PM SAT APR 19...                                         
LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIR               
AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND HAZE ALOFT...BUT SHOWERS WILL STAY                
SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN WARM...WITH LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOPING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AGAINST A BACKDROP OF OTHERWISE               
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. VFR THRU THE FORECAST.                                    
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM SAT APR 19...                                  
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL             
LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN IL-IN BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  BANDS OF MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                  
MICHIGAN WITH HOLES IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD APPEARING EVERY NOW AND                
THEN.  THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY                
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.  WITH PRECIP WELL TO THE                
SOUTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS                 
INCLUDE TEMPS AND SKY COVER TONIGHT...THEN SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP              
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOMORROW.                                          
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS IT CUTS                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOKE OF              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN                     
TONIGHT...BUT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF               
THE REGION.  THAT LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO THINK ABOUT.             
LOWS LAST NIGHT DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NE LOWER            
WHERE CLEAR SKIES HUNG ON THE LONGEST.  DO NOT THINK THAT WILL                  
HAPPEN TONIGHT DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD...EVEN THOUGH THIS CIRRUS               
WILL THIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO HAVE KEPT LOWS                   
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES OVER NE                  
LOWER.  LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                        
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS               
WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT                  
LAKES.  NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO SPEAK UP WITH THE BUILDING                    
RIDGE...BUT STILL HINTS THAT LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ACROSS            
THE SW CWA WITH PREVAILING EAST FLOW BUTTING HEADS AGAINST LAKE                 
BREEZES OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BOTH NAM/GFS              
SPIT OUT QPF CENTERED AROUND WEXFORD COUNTY...BUT THINK THIS IS MORE            
OF A BY-PRODUCT OF OVER-GENEROUS SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH BOTH                 
MODELS SHOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DEEP MIXING UP TO 775MB                    
SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO AROUND 48F.  USING A TEMP OF                 
72F...THIS WOULD YIELD SKINNY ML CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MORE              
MOIST NAM SOLUTION...WHILE THE DRIER GFS SUGGESTS TOO MUCH CIN WILL             
EXIST TO TRIGGER A SHOWER.  GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH             
THE DAY...LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE POPS               
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS RANGING                 
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH/NEAR LAKESHORES...TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.               
MPC                                                                             
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WX EXPECTED TO                
CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW FCST CONCERNS REMAIN...NAMELY TEMPS MON AFTN            
ALONG WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. POTENT CLOSED              
LOW SPINNING OVR SOUTHERN IN THIS AFTN PROGGED TO SLIP INTO VIRGINIA            
BY EARLY MON...WITH BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACRS THE LAKES             
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVR THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...                
CONCERN REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIP STEMS FROM BROAD PLUME OF WRAP               
AROUND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT                
TIMEFRAME...AS UPR GYRE ABLE TO TAP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE                
ATLANTIC. INTERESTING TO NOTE BOTH NAM AND GFS SPIT OUT A HINT OF               
MEASURABLE PRECIP SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON THOUGH DIFFICULT TO FORESEE               
THIS GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING...WITH            
ONLY SOME WEAK HINT OF CHANNELED VORT (REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW TO THE            
SOUTH TODAY) HEADING NORTH THRU THE NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY               
FCST AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO MON AFTN...APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY             
ON TAP WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR                  
TROUGH...THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF MIXING PER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS                 
DRAPED OVERHEAD SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREE OFF POTENTIAL HIGHS                   
(READINGS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S LOOK GOOD). DESPITE GOOD HEATING AND               
LIKELY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...                  
DIFFICULT TO SEE CONVECTION (OTHER THAN A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD)              
FIRING DESPITE AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AS MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDS THRU THE DAY.                                       
LATER PERIODS (TUE THRU SAT)...PATTERN TO REMAIN QUITE BLOCKY THRU              
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...OWING TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/                   
CLOSED MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN ALASKA...IMPLYING                   
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. INDEED...              
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO             
SUGGEST...WITH INITIAL CLOSED LOW (EVIDENT THIS AFTN NEAR THE                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON STATE BORDER) AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY                 
SHEARING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST ON TUE...OWING TO             
BRIEF DISRUPTION OF BLOCKING FLOW ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. END RESULT FOR NORTHERN MI WILL BE INCREASING              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND WEAKENING              
FORCING SLIDES THRU THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS                
WELL WITH EXPECTED DECENT MOISTURE TAP INTO THE AREA VIA OPEN                   
GULF...AND MODEL PROGS OF SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING WELL BELOW 0C               
ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME OVERHEAD. PONDERED                
BRINGING SMALL POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR TUE AFTN AS MOISTURE              
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CONVECTION              
TO POP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN EXPECTED HEATING AND LIKELY LOW              
LEVEL WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PER BACKING OF                
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH ANYTHING ISOLATED AT BEST SO DRY               
FCST WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS TUE IFFY PENDING DEGREE OF SUN...THOUGH               
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY WARM DAY WITH REGION IN THE THERMAL               
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL RUN WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S                    
AREAWIDE.                                                                       
STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS                
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKE HOLD.               
00Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED SUN...SO              
WILL RUN WITH TEMPS UPR 50S TO MID 60S. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE BEGINS            
TO DIVERGE ON AMPLITUDE OF ADDITIONAL WESTERN TROUGHING                         
THU/FRI...THOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH DEEP LAYER/MERIDIONAL                 
RIDGE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS ALASKA CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR THE              
ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS OF A DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF             
EVENTUAL SOLUTION...IMPLICATION FOR THE CWA IS ADDITIONAL PRECIP                
CHANCES FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ON THE                 
PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HEADING EAST BY THE WEEKEND.                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
738 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT)...                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF            
ALG THE W COAST AND BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA. CUTOFF LO             
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS MOVING E THRU THE OH VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER                 
SHRTWV IS LIFTING INTO WRN LK SUP. INTERACTION OF THIS SHRTWV/                  
ASSOCIATED UPR DVGC/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC WITH DEEPER MSTR SHOWN             
ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS CAUSING SCT -SHRA/QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD OVER             
THE NW HALF OF THE FA EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT 12Z GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW               
MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT TO THE SE ABV LINGERING SHALLOW MSTR. WITH            
SE H85 WINDS BTWN CUTOFF LO IN THE OH VALLEY AND HUDSON BAY HI                  
PRES...THIS DRY IS OVERSPRDG THE FA...HAS ENDED THE PCPN OVER THE               
SCNTRL AND E...AND IS TENDING TO DIMINISH THE SHRA COVG OVER THE NW.            
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT)...                        
FOR TNGT...GENERAL MSLP/UPR HGT RISES FCST OVER THE UPR LKS                     
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE W. WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW BTWN            
HUDSON BAY HI AND DEPARTING CLOSED LO IN THE OH VALLEY...EXPECT                 
DRIER AIR IN THAT DIRECTION TO CONTINUE MAKING INROADS ESE-WNW THRU             
THE FA. WL RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS THIS EVNG TO THE W BEFORE                   
DROPPING MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT OVER WRN LK SUP UNDER LINGERING                 
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO INCRSGLY SHEARED SHRTWV IMPACTING THAT AREA.              
EVEN THOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRYING OUT...SUSPECT THE LLVL MSTR WL            
BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. THIS LLVL MSTR WL BE MOST RESILIENT OVER THE             
NW IN AREAS WHERE LO CLDS HAVE LINGERED THRU THE DAY AND LIMITED                
INSOLATION/MIXING. SO WL FCST AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP DESPITE SOME                 
LINGERING HI CLD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DON`T APPEAR IDEAL FOR DENSE             
FOG FORMATION WITH FCST RELATIVELY SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI TO               
THE N AND LO IN THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY FOG OVER THE E                 
CONSIDERING THE DEEPER MIXING EVIDENT THERE THIS AFTN. WL TEND TO               
UNDERCUT MOS FCST LO TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE CORE OF            
THE DRIEST AIR.                                                                 
ON SUN...ACYC ENE FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS. WITH DRY AIR ABV            
THE SFC IN THE MRNG...INSOLATION SHOULD MIX OUT RADIATION FOG. BUT              
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP MIGHT TEND TO KEEP THE FOG/LO CLD MORE RESILIENT             
NEAR THE SHORE. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON GFS FCST SDNGS (NAM/GFS BOTH              
SHOW H85 TEMPS ARND 10C) WOULD SUPPORT HI TEMPS APRCHG 70 AWAY FM LK            
MODERATION AS OBSVD IN NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. BUT TEMPS NEAR LK SUP/             
THE GREEN BAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. SINCE GFS/NAM GENERATE              
SOME LGT QPF OVER NRN WI BTWN 18Z-24Z...CHECKED FOR THE POTENTIAL               
FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHRA. BUT EVEN FOR HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 70...             
UNABLE TO GET ANY SUBSTANTIVE CAPE WITH LLVLS DRIED BY MIXING AND               
WRMG MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG.                                                    
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT.  AT THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN AS THE TROUGH              
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THE TREND HAS CONTINUED...SLOWING THE ONSET OF               
PRECIPITATION DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  IN FACT...IT LOOKS                
MORE LIKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                
HITS THE WESTERN CWA.  HPC GUIDANCE BACKS THIS SCENARIO UP.                     
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE QUICKENED THINGS UP              
ROUGHLY 6 HOURS FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  COMPARED TO THE OTHER                
OPTIONS...THE GFS WAS QUICKER.  CAN NOT IGNORE THIS TREND...AND HAVE            
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WHILE ATTEMPTING TO NOT JUMP AROUND TOO MUCH             
DURING THIS PERIOD.                                                             
THE PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT NE INSTEAD OF STRAIGHT                        
EAST...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHERLY BROAD SCALE TROUGH FOR US                  
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL...CONTINUE TO               
LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND               
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS.                                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS THEN FIGURED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE               
DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY.  THEN AGAIN...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD             
EDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO NE MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z                   
SATURDAY.  THE GFS IS THEN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...TRYING TO DIVE               
THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WHILE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO                   
CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL E TO NE TRACK.                                          
FROM FRIDAY ON THE FORECAST BECOMES A BUGABOO.  WITH MODEL                      
VARIABILITY PRETTY HIGH...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT                
THIS TIME FRAME...WILL OPT TO UTILIZED HPC GUIDANCE HEAVILY.  THIS              
GENERALLY MEANT FOLLOWING A 00Z ECMWF FORECAST...WITH A BLEND OF ITS            
ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY (ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SATURDAY)...                                  
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE LEAST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24                     
HOURS...IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WERE ALSO THE                  
LOCATIONS WITH THE SMALLEST SNOWMELT CONCERNS. LOCATIONS TO THE                 
NORTH AND WEST RECEIVED BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF                     
RAINFALL...ADDING TO SNOWMELT GOING INTO ALREADY HIGH RIVERS. HIGHS             
IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT              
IN RIVER LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE. LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE RIVER             
FORECAST CENTER SHOW HIGHER CREST VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED                 
FORECASTS. LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN INCLUDE THE CHOCOLAY              
RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL. AFTER                 
DISCUSSION WITH THE CMX COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER AROUND NOON...OPTED            
TO ISSUE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL WITH                  
IMPENDING SLOW RISE TOWARD FLOOD STAGE.                                         
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS... PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                    
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IT`S A VERY DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING. DRY AIR IS MAKING SOME                 
INROADS FROM THE E ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI PER SFC OBS                
WHICH HAVE SHOWN LOW CIGS BREAKING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT               
IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW                
FAST THE LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING. IN ANYCASE...IT APPEARED LOW                  
CLOUDS WOULD SCATTER OUT AT KCMX/KSAW THIS EVENING AS SOME DRYING               
OCCURS FROM THE E. HOWEVER...HAVE NOW OPTED FOR A MUCH MORE                     
PESSIMISTIC FCST TONIGHT. SINCE SFC DWPTS ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND SURROUNDING REGION HAVE VERY SIMILAR VALUES TO CURRENT             
TEMPS AT KSAW/KCMX AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL RETAIN AN UPSLOPE               
COMPONENT THRU THE NIGHT AT BOTH SITES...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT                 
STRATUS (LIFR/IFR CIGS) WILL BREAK. ALSO...EXPECT VIS TO DROP SLOWLY            
TO IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR VIS IN FOG LATER              
IN THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES IMPROVE TO VFR                
EARLY SUN AFTN.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC TO REMAIN NEARLY                
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN               
LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES            
BY LATE SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE             
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY                 
EVENING AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN                    
APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. FOR THE MOST               
PART...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT                    
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST IN THE ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING            
TROUGH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS               
WILL ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KC                                                                 
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...TG/KC                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
710 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY. FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND HAZE ALOFT...BUT SHOWERS             
WILL STAY SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN WARM...WITH               
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AGAINST A BACKDROP OF            
OTHERWISE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. VFR THRU THE FORECAST.                          
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 303 PM SAT APR 19...                                       
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL             
LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN IL-IN BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  BANDS OF MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                  
MICHIGAN WITH HOLES IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD APPEARING EVERY NOW AND                
THEN.  THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY                
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.  WITH PRECIP WELL TO THE                
SOUTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS                 
INCLUDE TEMPS AND SKY COVER TONIGHT...THEN SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP              
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOMORROW.                                          
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS IT CUTS                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOKE OF              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN                     
TONIGHT...BUT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF               
THE REGION.  THAT LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO THINK ABOUT.             
LOWS LAST NIGHT DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NE LOWER            
WHERE CLEAR SKIES HUNG ON THE LONGEST.  DO NOT THINK THAT WILL                  
HAPPEN TONIGHT DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD...EVEN THOUGH THIS CIRRUS               
WILL THIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO HAVE KEPT LOWS                   
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES OVER NE                  
LOWER.  LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                        
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS               
WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT                  
LAKES.  NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO SPEAK UP WITH THE BUILDING                    
RIDGE...BUT STILL HINTS THAT LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ACROSS            
THE SW CWA WITH PREVAILING EAST FLOW BUTTING HEADS AGAINST LAKE                 
BREEZES OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BOTH NAM/GFS              
SPIT OUT QPF CENTERED AROUND WEXFORD COUNTY...BUT THINK THIS IS MORE            
OF A BY-PRODUCT OF OVER-GENEROUS SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH BOTH                 
MODELS SHOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DEEP MIXING UP TO 775MB                    
SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO AROUND 48F.  USING A TEMP OF                 
72F...THIS WOULD YIELD SKINNY ML CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MORE              
MOIST NAM SOLUTION...WHILE THE DRIER GFS SUGGESTS TOO MUCH CIN WILL             
EXIST TO TRIGGER A SHOWER.  GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH             
THE DAY...LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE POPS               
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS RANGING                 
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH/NEAR LAKESHORES...TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.               
MPC                                                                             
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WX EXPECTED TO                
CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW FCST CONCERNS REMAIN...NAMELY TEMPS MON AFTN            
ALONG WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. POTENT CLOSED              
LOW SPINNING OVR SOUTHERN IN THIS AFTN PROGGED TO SLIP INTO VIRGINIA            
BY EARLY MON...WITH BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACRS THE LAKES             
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVR THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...                
CONCERN REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIP STEMS FROM BROAD PLUME OF WRAP               
AROUND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT                
TIMEFRAME...AS UPR GYRE ABLE TO TAP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE                
ATLANTIC. INTERESTING TO NOTE BOTH NAM AND GFS SPIT OUT A HINT OF               
MEASURABLE PRECIP SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON THOUGH DIFFICULT TO FORESEE               
THIS GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING...WITH            
ONLY SOME WEAK HINT OF CHANNELED VORT (REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW TO THE            
SOUTH TODAY) HEADING NORTH THRU THE NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY               
FCST AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO MON AFTN...APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY             
ON TAP WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR                  
TROUGH...THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF MIXING PER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS                 
DRAPED OVERHEAD SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREE OFF POTENTIAL HIGHS                   
(READINGS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S LOOK GOOD). DESPITE GOOD HEATING AND               
LIKELY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...                  
DIFFICULT TO SEE CONVECTION (OTHER THAN A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD)              
FIRING DESPITE AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AS MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDS THRU THE DAY.                                       
LATER PERIODS (TUE THRU SAT)...PATTERN TO REMAIN QUITE BLOCKY THRU              
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...OWING TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/                   
CLOSED MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN ALASKA...IMPLYING                   
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. INDEED...              
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO             
SUGGEST...WITH INITIAL CLOSED LOW (EVIDENT THIS AFTN NEAR THE                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON STATE BORDER) AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY                 
SHEARING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST ON TUE...OWING TO             
BRIEF DISRUPTION OF BLOCKING FLOW ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. END RESULT FOR NORTHERN MI WILL BE INCREASING              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND WEAKENING              
FORCING SLIDES THRU THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS                
WELL WITH EXPECTED DECENT MOISTURE TAP INTO THE AREA VIA OPEN                   
GULF...AND MODEL PROGS OF SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING WELL BELOW 0C               
ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME OVERHEAD. PONDERED                
BRINGING SMALL POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR TUE AFTN AS MOISTURE              
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CONVECTION              
TO POP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN EXPECTED HEATING AND LIKELY LOW              
LEVEL WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PER BACKING OF                
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH ANYTHING ISOLATED AT BEST SO DRY               
FCST WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS TUE IFFY PENDING DEGREE OF SUN...THOUGH               
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY WARM DAY WITH REGION IN THE THERMAL               
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL RUN WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S                    
AREAWIDE.                                                                       
STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS                
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKE HOLD.               
00Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED SUN...SO              
WILL RUN WITH TEMPS UPR 50S TO MID 60S. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE BEGINS            
TO DIVERGE ON AMPLITUDE OF ADDITIONAL WESTERN TROUGHING                         
THU/FRI...THOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH DEEP LAYER/MERIDIONAL                 
RIDGE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS ALASKA CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR THE              
ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS OF A DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF             
EVENTUAL SOLUTION...IMPLICATION FOR THE CWA IS ADDITIONAL PRECIP                
CHANCES FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ON THE                 
PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HEADING EAST BY THE WEEKEND.                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF            
ALG THE W COAST AND BLDG RDG OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA. CUTOFF LO             
UNDER THE BLDG RDG IS MOVING E THRU THE OH VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER                 
SHRTWV IS LIFTING INTO WRN LK SUP. INTERACTION OF THIS SHRTWV/                  
ASSOCIATED UPR DVGC/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC WITH DEEPER MSTR SHOWN             
ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB IS CAUSING SCT -SHRA/QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD OVER             
THE NW HALF OF THE FA EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT 12Z GRB/APX RAOBS SHOW               
MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT TO THE SE ABV LINGERING SHALLOW MSTR. WITH            
SE H85 WINDS BTWN CUTOFF LO IN THE OH VALLEY AND HUDSON BAY HI                  
PRES...THIS DRY IS OVERSPRDG THE FA...HAS ENDED THE PCPN OVER THE               
SCNTRL AND E...AND IS TENDING TO DIMINISH THE SHRA COVG OVER THE NW.            
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
FOR TNGT...GENERAL MSLP/UPR HGT RISES FCST OVER THE UPR LKS                     
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE W. WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW BTWN            
HUDSON BAY HI AND DEPARTING CLOSED LO IN THE OH VALLEY...EXPECT                 
DRIER AIR IN THAT DIRECTION TO CONTINUE MAKING INROADS ESE-WNW THRU             
THE FA. WL RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS THIS EVNG TO THE W BEFORE                   
DROPPING MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT OVER WRN LK SUP UNDER LINGERING                 
DEEPER MSTR CLOSER TO INCRSGLY SHEARED SHRTWV IMPACTING THAT AREA.              
EVEN THOUGH THE MID LVLS WL BE DRYING OUT...SUSPECT THE LLVL MSTR WL            
BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. THIS LLVL MSTR WL BE MOST RESILIENT OVER THE             
NW IN AREAS WHERE LO CLDS HAVE LINGERED THRU THE DAY AND LIMITED                
INSOLATION/MIXING. SO WL FCST AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP DESPITE SOME                 
LINGERING HI CLD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DON`T APPEAR IDEAL FOR DENSE             
FOG FORMATION WITH FCST RELATIVELY SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI TO               
THE N AND LO IN THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY FOG OVER THE E                 
CONSIDERING THE DEEPER MIXING EVIDENT THERE THIS AFTN. WL TEND TO               
UNDERCUT MOS FCST LO TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE CORE OF            
THE DRIEST AIR.                                                                 
ON SUN...ACYC ENE FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS. WITH DRY AIR ABV            
THE SFC IN THE MRNG...INSOLATION SHOULD MIX OUT RADIATION FOG. BUT              
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP MIGHT TEND TO KEEP THE FOG/LO CLD MORE RESILIENT             
NEAR THE SHORE. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON GFS FCST SDNGS (NAM/GFS BOTH              
SHOW H85 TEMPS ARND 10C) WOULD SUPPORT HI TEMPS APRCHG 70 AWAY FM LK            
MODERATION AS OBSVD IN NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. BUT TEMPS NEAR LK SUP/             
THE GREEN BAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. SINCE GFS/NAM GENERATE              
SOME LGT QPF OVER NRN WI BTWN 18Z-24Z...CHECKED FOR THE POTENTIAL               
FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHRA. BUT EVEN FOR HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 70...             
UNABLE TO GET ANY SUBSTANTIVE CAPE WITH LLVLS DRIED BY MIXING AND               
WRMG MID LVLS UNDER UPR RDG.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
THE 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT.  AT THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN AS THE TROUGH              
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THE TREND HAS CONTINUED...SLOWING THE ONSET OF               
PRECIPITATION DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  IN FACT...IT LOOKS                
MORE LIKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                
HITS THE WESTERN CWA.  HPC GUIDANCE BACKS THIS SCENARIO UP.                     
HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE QUICKENED THINGS UP              
ROUGHLY 6 HOURS FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  COMPARED TO THE OTHER                
OPTIONS...THE GFS WAS QUICKER.  CAN NOT IGNORE THIS TREND...AND HAVE            
MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WHILE ATTEMPTING TO NOT JUMP AROUND TOO MUCH             
DURING THIS PERIOD.                                                             
THE PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT NE INSTEAD OF STRAIGHT                        
EAST...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHERLY BROAD SCALE TROUGH FOR US                  
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL...CONTINUE TO               
LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND               
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS.                                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS THEN FIGURED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE               
DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY.  THEN AGAIN...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD             
EDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO NE MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z                   
SATURDAY.  THE GFS IS THEN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...TRYING TO DIVE               
THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WHILE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO                   
CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL E TO NE TRACK.                                          
FROM FRIDAY ON THE FORECAST BECOMES A BUGABOO.  WITH MODEL                      
VARIABILITY PRETTY HIGH...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT                
THIS TIME FRAME...WILL OPT TO UTILIZED HPC GUIDANCE HEAVILY.  THIS              
GENERALLY MEANT FOLLOWING A 00Z ECMWF FORECAST...WITH A BLEND OF ITS            
ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIG/VSBY TDAY WITH DIURNAL HTG AND                   
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR JUST ABV SHALLOW MOIST LYR AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z             
APX RAOB/RECENT TAMDAR SDNG FM CIU. CONDITIONS WL BE SLOWEST TO                 
IMPROVE AT CMX FARTHER FM THIS DRY AIR THAT IS ARRIVING FM THE                  
ESE... AND LO CLDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BREAK UP THERE UNTIL THIS EVNG.            
WITH CONTINUED DRYING ALF AND SNOW MELT TNGT...EXPECT MORE RADIATION            
FOG TO DVLP OVERNGT WITH LIFR VSBYS LIKELY. BEST CHC FOR LO IFR CIG             
WL BE AT SAW WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE NNE WIND COMPONENT.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC TO REMAIN NEARLY                
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN               
LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES            
BY LATE SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE             
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY                 
EVENING AND DRAG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN                    
APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. FOR THE MOST               
PART...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT                    
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST IN THE ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING            
TROUGH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS               
WILL ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY (ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SATURDAY)...                                  
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE LEAST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24                     
HOURS...IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WERE ALSO THE                  
LOCATIONS WITH THE SMALLEST SNOWMELT CONCERNS. LOCATIONS TO THE                 
NORTH AND WEST RECEIVED BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF                     
RAINFALL...ADDING TO SNOWMELT GOING INTO ALREADY HIGH RIVERS. HIGHS             
IN THE 40S SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT              
IN RIVER LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE. LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE RIVER             
FORECAST CENTER SHOW HIGHER CREST VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED                 
FORECASTS. LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN INCLUDE THE CHOCOLAY              
RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL. AFTER                 
DISCUSSION WITH THE CMX COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER AROUND NOON...OPTED            
TO ISSUE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL WITH                  
IMPENDING SLOW RISE TOWARD FLOOD STAGE.                                         
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS... PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                    
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KC                                                                 
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...TG/KC                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
303 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN IL-IN BORDER AND A                
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.               
BANDS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS              
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH HOLES IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD APPEARING EVERY               
NOW AND THEN.  THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM                
RAPIDLY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.  WITH PRECIP WELL TO            
THE SOUTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS             
INCLUDE TEMPS AND SKY COVER TONIGHT...THEN SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP              
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOMORROW.                                          
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS IT CUTS                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SPOKE OF              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN                     
TONIGHT...BUT FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF               
THE REGION.  THAT LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO THINK ABOUT.             
LOWS LAST NIGHT DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NE LOWER            
WHERE CLEAR SKIES HUNG ON THE LONGEST.  DO NOT THINK THAT WILL                  
HAPPEN TONIGHT DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD...EVEN THOUGH THIS CIRRUS               
WILL THIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO HAVE KEPT LOWS                   
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES OVER NE                  
LOWER.  LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                        
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS               
WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT                  
LAKES.  NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO SPEAK UP WITH THE BUILDING                    
RIDGE...BUT STILL HINTS THAT LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ACROSS            
THE SW CWA WITH PREVAILING EAST FLOW BUTTING HEADS AGAINST LAKE                 
BREEZES OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BOTH NAM/GFS              
SPIT OUT QPF CENTERED AROUND WEXFORD COUNTY...BUT THINK THIS IS MORE            
OF A BY-PRODUCT OF OVER-GENEROUS SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH BOTH                 
MODELS SHOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DEEP MIXING UP TO 775MB                    
SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO AROUND 48F.  USING A TEMP OF                 
72F...THIS WOULD YIELD SKINNY ML CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG IN THE MORE              
MOIST NAM SOLUTION...WHILE THE DRIER GFS SUGGESTS TOO MUCH CIN WILL             
EXIST TO TRIGGER A SHOWER.  GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH             
THE DAY...LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE POPS               
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS RANGING                 
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH/NEAR LAKESHORES...TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.               
MPC                                                                             
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WX EXPECTED TO                
CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW FCST CONCERNS REMAIN...NAMELY TEMPS MON AFTN            
ALONG WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. POTENT CLOSED              
LOW SPINNING OVR SOUTHERN IN THIS AFTN PROGGED TO SLIP INTO VIRGINIA            
BY EARLY MON...WITH BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACRS THE LAKES             
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVR THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...                
CONCERN REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIP STEMS FROM BROAD PLUME OF WRAP               
AROUND MOISTURE PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT                
TIMEFRAME...AS UPR GYRE ABLE TO TAP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE                
ATLANTIC. INTERESTING TO NOTE BOTH NAM AND GFS SPIT OUT A HINT OF               
MEASURABLE PRECIP SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON THOUGH DIFFICULT TO FORESEE               
THIS GIVEN OVERALL LACK OF MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING...WITH            
ONLY SOME WEAK HINT OF CHANNELED VORT (REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW TO THE            
SOUTH TODAY) HEADING NORTH THRU THE NIGHT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY               
FCST AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO MON AFTN...APPEARS ANOTHER WARM DAY             
ON TAP WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR                  
TROUGH...THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF MIXING PER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS                 
DRAPED OVERHEAD SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREE OFF POTENTIAL HIGHS                   
(READINGS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S LOOK GOOD). DESPITE GOOD HEATING AND               
LIKELY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...                  
DIFFICULT TO SEE CONVECTION (OTHER THAN A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD)              
FIRING DESPITE AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AS MID LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDS THRU THE DAY.                                       
LATER PERIODS (TUE THRU SAT)...PATTERN TO REMAIN QUITE BLOCKY THRU              
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...OWING TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/                   
CLOSED MID LEVEL RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN ALASKA...IMPLYING                   
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. INDEED...              
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS WHAT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO             
SUGGEST...WITH INITIAL CLOSED LOW (EVIDENT THIS AFTN NEAR THE                   
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON STATE BORDER) AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY                 
SHEARING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST ON TUE...OWING TO             
BRIEF DISRUPTION OF BLOCKING FLOW ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. END RESULT FOR NORTHERN MI WILL BE INCREASING              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND WEAKENING              
FORCING SLIDES THRU THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION AS                
WELL WITH EXPECTED DECENT MOISTURE TAP INTO THE AREA VIA OPEN                   
GULF...AND MODEL PROGS OF SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING WELL BELOW 0C               
ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME OVERHEAD. PONDERED                
BRINGING SMALL POPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR TUE AFTN AS MOISTURE              
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CONVECTION              
TO POP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN EXPECTED HEATING AND LIKELY LOW              
LEVEL WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PER BACKING OF                
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH ANYTHING ISOLATED AT BEST SO DRY               
FCST WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS TUE IFFY PENDING DEGREE OF SUN...THOUGH               
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY WARM DAY WITH REGION IN THE THERMAL               
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL RUN WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S                    
AREAWIDE.                                                                       
STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS                
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKE HOLD.               
00Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED SUN...SO              
WILL RUN WITH TEMPS UPR 50S TO MID 60S. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE BEGINS            
TO DIVERGE ON AMPLITUDE OF ADDITIONAL WESTERN TROUGHING                         
THU/FRI...THOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH DEEP LAYER/MERIDIONAL                 
RIDGE BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS ALASKA CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR THE              
ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS OF A DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF             
EVENTUAL SOLUTION...IMPLICATION FOR THE CWA IS ADDITIONAL PRECIP                
CHANCES FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ON THE                 
PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HEADING EAST BY THE WEEKEND.                
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 100 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008/                                
CIRRUS SHIELD WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MIXED IN WILL PERSIST                 
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE              
SOUTH. THIS CIRRUS WILL THIN TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...VFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRESENT.                                                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT)...                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
DRIFTING E THRU MISSOURI. LIKE LAST NIGHT...UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDS            
ROUGHLY FROM NE MN/LAKE SUPERIOR ENE ACROSS ONTARIO. UPPER                      
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET AND CORRESPONDING BAND OF               
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SUPPORTING PCPN ACROSS CNTRL/NRN WI INTO              
CNTRL UPPER MI IN DEEP MOISTURE BROUGHT N BY MIDLEVEL LOW.                      
AS MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT/SAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL                
BECOME MORE ERLY...ADVECTING DRIER AIR WWD INTO UPPER MI. AT THE                
SAME TIME...UPPER JET WILL BE WEAKENING. SO...LAST SURGE OF -RA WILL            
OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT...AND MAINLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.                
GOING FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN UPPER               
MI. LATER IN THE NIGHT...OPTED TO LWR POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL             
UPPER MI AS DRIER AIR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT HOW FAR E PCPN             
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN WI. ALSO...EXPANDED AREA OF NO PCPN OVER               
THE FAR ERN FCST AREA. CARRIED THIS DRIER TREND INTO SAT BY REMOVING            
MENTION OF PCPN ROUGHLY E OF A KMQT TO KMNN LINE.                               
FINAL NOTE...HIT FOG MENTION HARDER OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI UNDER MOIST            
UPSLOPING NE FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WITH                
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT)...                                             
THE WEATHER OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WAS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL             
LOW OVER NW MO. UPSTREAM ANOTHER H5 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SRN BC WILL            
HAVE WEATHER IMPACTS INTO THE CNTRL CONUS NEXT WEEK AS IT SLIDES EAST.          
AT THE SFC...WEAK NE FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE REGION BTWN LOW PRES               
OVER SRN IA AND A RIDGE FROM NE CANADA INTO NW MN. RADARS INDICATED             
A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN FROM NE IA THROUGH CNTRL                      
WI...CNTRL UPPER MI AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE PCPN WAS SUPPORTED BY            
A 850-700 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION AND 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND              
NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT. MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THE PCPN ZONE WAS            
ABUNDANT WITH THE 12Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT TO NEAR AN INCH.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT)...                      
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO SLIDE TO THE ESE INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO             
PERSIST WITH ONLY A SLOW SHIFT INTO THE MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE                
CWA. OVER THE E HALF...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE FCST                 
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND LCL HIGH RES WRF              
WITH THE PCPN PATTERN/POPS AND QPF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND                 
10C...AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSOLATION...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO               
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE...THICKER CLOUDS AND PCPN WEST              
SHOULD LIMIT MAX READINGS CLOSER TO 50.                                         
MDLS SUGGEST THAT THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN SAT...SO THAT THE MODEST              
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF. OVERALL QPF VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 0.25             
TO .50 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND REMAIN BLO A 0.25 INCH SATURDAY.                  
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
THE CWA WILL BE IN A COL...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SATURDAY             
AND SUNDAY...AS TWO 500MB LOWS AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NATION.             
THE FIRST WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID OHIO            
VALLEY.  THE SECOND LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS OF                 
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ALONG THE PACIFIC              
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
SW FLOW WILL BEGIN AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST TROUGH SLIDES TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY                         
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  CONTINUE            
TO GO SLOWER THAN A DAY AGO...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                 
FIGURED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                      
THIS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES             
ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.                
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR               
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT             
DEVELOP...MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE             
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING SLIDES                     
NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.               
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER               
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIGH               
RUNNING RIVERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD               
POSE A THREAT TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND STREAMS.                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN AT THE SFC ON WEDNESDAYS...STILL WITH A             
BROAD-SCALE TROUGH AT 500MB.  INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5            
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY...AS COLDER AIR KEEPS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH              
850MB TEMPERATURES NOT DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.                 
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HPC GUIDANCE WAS A BLEND OF THE 00Z                
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH LESS               
WEIGHTING TO THE OPERATIONAL 06Z-12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET.                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
PCPN COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR SNOWMELT...READINGS                 
AROUND 40F TONIGHT AND AROUND 50F SAT...WILL LEAD TO STEADY CLIMB IN            
RIVER LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF. FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON            
THE RIVERS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY                
FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE             
LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER                 
SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK AT                     
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CIGS AND/OR VIS AT KCMX AND KSAW HAVE CRASHED TO LIFR/VLIFR DURING              
THE EVENING. SEE LITTLE REASON FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE             
NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS                
WILL BE WORST AT KSAW WITH PERSISTENT VLIFR VIS IN FOG UNDER                    
UPSLOPING NE WINDS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AT KSAW MID TO LATE                
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TO VFR IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR                
ARRIVES FROM THE E.                                                             
AT KCMX...EXPECT OCCASIONAL -RA AND FOG TO KEEP VIS MOSTLY IN THE               
IFR RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. LIFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU MID                 
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID AFTN AS -RA DIMINISHES/ENDS.            
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCMX IN THE EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH               
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 20KT. STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30            
KT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE            
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                     
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008/                          
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER                
GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
THE WI CWA ALONG A TROF AXIS. HELPING MATTERS IS STRONG HEATING                 
THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU WITH SOME                      
CLEARING. THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF WI ABOUT 20               
DEGREES ATTM. RUC BEST LI INTO THE EVENING AROUND ZERO SO WILL                  
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING.                 
NEXT CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. BELIEF IS THAT THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT DRAGGING SOME OF                 
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN CWA WHILE MAINTAINING A GOOD DEAL               
OF CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE. DUE TO THE RAINS OVER WI AND SOUTH                     
CENTRAL AREAS OF MN...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.                  
HOWEVER..IT COULD BECOME DENSE IF THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD DIMINISH                 
DURING THE NIGHT.                                                               
THIS LEADS INTO SUNDAY ON HOW HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GET              
IF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. NAM CU RULE IS QUITE                  
NEGATIVE OVER EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...SO CUT BACK A                    
LITTLE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.               
THINGS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD                 
FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING TO NEAR               
THE MN/WI BORDER BY MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TODAY WERE TO                    
TIGHTEN UP ON THE POPS AND KEEP THEM CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST                   
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THEN NOT              
ALLOW THINGS TO GET TO FAR TO THE EAST TOO FAST ON MONDAY.                      
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE                        
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING                 
AND THEN SPREADING INTO WI DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT BECOMES                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI BY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW              
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.                 
CAPE VALUES MODEST ON MONDAY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DIMINISHING                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IS THE COUPLED JET                 
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GIVING                 
THE EASTERN CWA QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENTIAL LAYER DIVERGENCE. THIS              
WILL BE A PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NOT ONLY FOR                    
SEVERE WEATHER BUT HEAVY RAINFALL.                                              
A BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY THEN A               
MORE VIGOROUS LOW WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS                     
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD APRIL SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
MAINLY MVFR CIGS IN PLACE UNDER SURFACE RIDGE OVER ALL BUT KAXN.                
DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MN...BUT LO                  
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE ESE TOWARD MORNING. EXPECT                  
CEILINGS TO SPREAD NWRD OVER REST OF CWA OVERNIGHT AND SOME                     
LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN. AS                
SE FLOW INCREASES DURING SUNDAY...LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO               
LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND NW MN WITH CLEARING OVER WEST CENTRAL                     
WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY              
HIGH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
536 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER                
GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
THE WI CWA ALONG A TROF AXIS. HELPING MATTERS IS STRONG HEATING                 
THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF KEAU WITH SOME                      
CLEARING. THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF WI ABOUT 20               
DEGREES ATTM. RUC BEST LI INTO THE EVENING AROUND ZERO SO WILL                  
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING.                 
NEXT CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. BELIEF IS THAT THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT DRAGGING SOME OF                 
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN CWA WHILE MAINTAINING A GOOD DEAL               
OF CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE. DUE TO THE RAINS OVER WI AND SOUTH                     
CENTRAL AREAS OF MN...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.                  
HOWEVER..IT COULD BECOME DENSE IF THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD DIMINISH                 
DURING THE NIGHT.                                                               
THIS LEADS INTO SUNDAY ON HOW HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GET              
IF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. NAM CU RULE IS QUITE                  
NEGATIVE OVER EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...SO CUT BACK A                    
LITTLE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.               
THINGS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD                 
FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING TO NEAR               
THE MN/WI BORDER BY MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TODAY WERE TO                    
TIGHTEN UP ON THE POPS AND KEEP THEM CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST                   
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THEN NOT              
ALLOW THINGS TO GET TO FAR TO THE EAST TOO FAST ON MONDAY.                      
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE                        
FRONT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING                 
AND THEN SPREADING INTO WI DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT BECOMES                  
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI BY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW              
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION                
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.                 
CAPE VALUES MODEST ON MONDAY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DIMINISHING                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IS THE COUPLED JET                 
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GIVING                 
THE EASTERN CWA QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENTIAL LAYER DIVERGENCE. THIS              
WILL BE A PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NOT ONLY FOR                    
SEVERE WEATHER BUT HEAVY RAINFALL.                                              
A BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY THEN A               
MORE VIGOROUS LOW WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS                     
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD APRIL SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT IN AND OUT OF MSP STILL REVEALING A              
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER. SOUNDINGS OUT             
OF EAU AIRPORT SHOW LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE AND VISIBLE                      
SATELLITE CHANNEL IS INDEED PORTRAYING WHOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER                
NEAR EAU. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GO SCT THERE AT TIMES THIS EVE.                
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG NEAR EAU THAT MAY LAST INTO THE                 
POST DAYBREAK HOURS ON SUN. MSP...RNH...AND STC MORE LIKELY TO                  
STAY UNDER MVFR/IFR STRATUS. LOW T/TDS SPREADS WILL LIKELY PRESENT              
AT LEAST SOME MVFR VISBYS OVERNIGHT. OUT WEST...AXN AND RWF WILL                
FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THEY BEGIN TO BE                   
CAUGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD. CONDITIONS MORE              
LIKELY TO STAY MVFR AT THESE SITES. DURING SUNDAY THE CLOUDS                    
SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK IN THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WIND GRADIENT               
IS SOMEWHAT LAX. BUT IN THE AFTN A MORE RAPID SCATTERING IS                     
LIKELY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008/                               
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF UPPER LOW                        
CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                    
DRIFTING EAST. THE TROUGH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH                  
THE EVENING WITH 295 K SFC SHOWING UPGLIDE INTO WEST CENT WI AND                
EAST CENT MN EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF               
LIGHT RAIN ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND HAS                
BEGUN TO DRIFT BACK EASTWARD AFTER A WESTWARD MARCH LATE LAST                   
NIGHT WITH RUC 295 K DATA INDICATING THAT THIS TREND WILL                       
CONTINUE. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS EAST CENT MN THROUGH THE                    
MORNING WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO HAVE INFLUENCE WITH HIGHER                   
CHANCE POPS IN WISCONSIN AS RAIN SHIELD PULLS BACK EAST. DECIDED TO             
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FAR EAST CENT MN...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TWIN               
CITIES METRO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING               
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SUPPORTING SMALL               
CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES                
ACROSS THE MN COUNTIES TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO                  
PUSH CLOUD COVER WESTWARD BUT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WIN OUT                   
HELPING TO DECREASE THE CLOUD OVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS                  
WEST CENT MN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON BREAKING UP                
OF CLOUDS. THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH               
THE EAST CENT MN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH MORE                 
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND WEST CENT WI REACHING THE LOW TO MID                 
50S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                  
TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC FLOW TAKING HOLD. ADDED FOG FOR MUCH OF THE               
EASTERN CWA GIVEN THE RAINFALL AND DECREASING WINDS.                            
INTERESTING WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF UPPER              
LOW SPINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND BROAD CLOSED OFF                 
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WASHINGTON STATE/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TAKES     
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP                
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOCALLY...THIS SETS UP SOUTHERLY UPPER                
LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST               
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER UPPER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL ALLOW                  
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW TO TAKE OVER INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH                
MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH BUILDING OVERHEAD AS EVIDENCED BY +10              
TO +12 H85 TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW A NICE WARM UP INTO THE UPPER                 
60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                     
APPROACH MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH COMPRESSIONAL                   
HEATING POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS MONDAY. WITH THE                   
UPPER LOW STILL HANGING BACK WELL TO THE WEST MONDAY THE FRONT                  
WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THEN BEGINS TO              
KICK NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS A LOW UNDERCUTS THE PACIFIC               
OMEGA RIDGE ALLOWING EVOLUTION INTO A REX PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE.                
THE LOCAL RESULT IS SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                 
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY SENDING STRENGTHENING SFC LOW                     
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING                  
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS FRONT APPROACHES WITH BETTER                   
CHANCES ARRIVING MONDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES. NAM-WRF IS              
SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT WITH CAPE VALUES                     
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND BEST COLUMN LI/S OF -4 WITH STRONGER                    
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAN THE GFS. PWAT INCREASES OF MORE THAN A                  
QUARTER INCH IN 6 HOURS ALSO APPEAR MONDAY EVENING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS       
OF THE FRONT SLOWS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHWARD               
ALONG IT ALLOWING A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO              
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA                
KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT DRY CONDITIONS                  
LOOK TO FILL IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE              
SOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH H85 TEMPS BACK BELOW ZERO.              
BRIEF ZONAL FLOW OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS KEEPS THINGS QUIET INTO               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF UPPER FLOW TRYING TO               
BUCKLE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION COMMENCES THURSDAY MORNING WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE              
BY THAT TIME TO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.   ..MDB..                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL TAF SITES BUT KAXN THIS                       
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXPECT KSTC/KRWF TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE                 
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT                 
KMSP/KRNH/KEAU...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM 925 MB RH PROGS.                 
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE FURTHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH IFR                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS               
OF FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY...WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1                 
AND 3 MPH EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN IMPROVING                  
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND/AFTER 15Z SUNDAY...AS THE WINDS              
PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/MDB                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
715 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF UPPER LOW                        
CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                    
DRIFTING EAST. THE TROUGH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH                  
THE EVENING WITH 295 K SFC SHOWING UPGLIDE INTO WEST CENT WI AND                
EAST CENT MN EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF               
LIGHT RAIN ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND HAS                
BEGUN TO DRIFT BACK EASTWARD AFTER A WESTWARD MARCH LATE LAST                   
NIGHT WITH RUC 295 K DATA INDICATING THAT THIS TREND WILL                       
CONTINUE. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS EAST CENT MN THROUGH THE                    
MORNING WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO HAVE INFLUENCE WITH HIGHER                   
CHANCE POPS IN WISCONSIN AS RAIN SHIELD PULLS BACK EAST. DECIDED TO             
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FAR EAST CENT MN...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TWIN               
CITIES METRO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING               
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SUPPORTING SMALL               
CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES                
ACROSS THE MN COUNTIES TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO                  
PUSH CLOUD COVER WESTWARD BUT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WIN OUT                   
HELPING TO DECREASE THE CLOUD OVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS                  
WEST CENT MN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON BREAKING UP                
OF CLOUDS. THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S WITH               
THE EAST CENT MN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH MORE                 
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND WEST CENT WI REACHING THE LOW TO MID                 
50S WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                  
TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC FLOW TAKING HOLD. ADDED FOG FOR MUCH OF THE               
EASTERN CWA GIVEN THE RAINFALL AND DECREASING WINDS.                            
INTERESTING WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF UPPER              
LOW SPINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND BROAD CLOSED OFF                 
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WASHINGTON STATE/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TAKES     
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP                
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOCALLY...THIS SETS UP SOUTHERLY UPPER                
LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST               
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER UPPER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL ALLOW                  
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW TO TAKE OVER INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH                
MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH BUILDING OVERHEAD AS EVIDENCED BY +10              
TO +12 H85 TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW A NICE WARM UP INTO THE UPPER                 
60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                     
APPROACH MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH COMPRESSIONAL                   
HEATING POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS MONDAY. WITH THE                   
UPPER LOW STILL HANGING BACK WELL TO THE WEST MONDAY THE FRONT                  
WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THEN BEGINS TO              
KICK NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS A LOW UNDERCUTS THE PACIFIC               
OMEGA RIDGE ALLOWING EVOLUTION INTO A REX PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE.                
THE LOCAL RESULT IS SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                 
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY SENDING STRENGTHENING SFC LOW                     
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING                  
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS FRONT APPROACHES WITH BETTER                   
CHANCES ARRIVING MONDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES. NAM-WRF IS              
SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT WITH CAPE VALUES                     
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND BEST COLUMN LI/S OF -4 WITH STRONGER                    
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAN THE GFS. PWAT INCREASES OF MORE THAN A                  
QUARTER INCH IN 6 HOURS ALSO APPEAR MONDAY EVENING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS       
OF THE FRONT SLOWS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHWARD               
ALONG IT ALLOWING A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO              
THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA                
KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT DRY CONDITIONS                  
LOOK TO FILL IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE              
SOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH H85 TEMPS BACK BELOW ZERO.              
BRIEF ZONAL FLOW OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS KEEPS THINGS QUIET INTO               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF UPPER FLOW TRYING TO               
BUCKLE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION COMMENCES THURSDAY MORNING WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE              
BY THAT TIME TO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.   ..MDB..                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
THE TAF ISSUANCE FOR THIS PERIOD REFLECTS A 50H CUTOFF LOW                      
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH DEFORMATION RELATED                
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.                        
ACCORDINGLY...KMSP...KEAU AND KRNH START OUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS                
IN LOW CEILINGS. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF AT KMSP                 
AROUND 14Z BUT LINGERS THROUGH MORNING AT KEAU. WITH A NARROW                   
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST ACROSS MN TNGT...A GOOD PART OF                 
THE AREA APPEARS VULNERABLE FOR SOME FOG.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
418 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL             
PORTIONS OF MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. PESKY STRATUS CLOUDS                   
PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI STILL THIS                  
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE EXITING BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE H8 RIDGE            
AXIS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIABLE LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH FOG THIS            
MORNING...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS             
ARE CALM AND WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. CONTINUED TO MENTION            
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT            
EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                                                 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...EVEN WITH SOME              
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE REGION. MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S              
ARE EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH INCREASING              
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.               
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO START THE RETURN OF INCREASING                    
MOISTURE TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.                                        
THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED CLOUDS                     
MONDAY...AND EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES                
FOR SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH            
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE               
THE FORECAST STRONG CAP. AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES                
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA             
UPPER LOW...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST               
AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DIFFERS AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.              
AM EXPECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHED                
EAST FASTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE INITIAL                         
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING UNTIL               
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES IT EAST. THIS WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL            
OF THE COLD FRONT TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI UNTIL LATE MONDAY                       
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN SHOWING. THE                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE WHAT IS NEEDED FOR CONVECTION TO             
BREAK THROUGH THE CAP MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE THE               
GRIDDED FORECAST DISPLAYS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL                
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST              
AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY....EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO ARKANSAS. THE            
FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THURSDAY...ALONG            
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.                                     
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR            
FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING IN THE 08-09 UTC TIMEFRAME AT STJ AND                 
PERSISTING THROUGH 13 UTC.  BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE DENSEST FOG              
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...THUS CONTINUED PREVIOUS            
TAF FORECAST TREND OF INTRODUCING TEMPO GROUP IN THE 10-13                      
TIMEFRAME.  ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS AT STJ WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-15 UTC            
DUE TO MIXING.  BY LATE MORNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                    
SUFFICIENTLY THUS WIND SPEEDS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE              
AT OR ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 16 UTC.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
PREVAIL.                                                                        
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1100 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                     
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WITH H8 RIDGE AXIS            
A GOOD DELINEATOR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS.  QUICK PEEK AT                
LATEST RUC INDICATES H8 RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT              
AND WILL CLEAR EASTERN EDGE OF CWA BY 12 UTC.  GIVEN THIS                       
SCENARIO...INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPETURES A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS                 
EASTERN CWA DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.                                      
ALSO TRIMMED FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.                   
CIRRUS SHIELD IS ADVECTING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS AND                   
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DETRACT FROM                 
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION.  GIVEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITH 2-3               
DEGREES OF DEWPOINTS...KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN                            
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTH WEST AND NORTH               
CENTRAL MISSOURI.                                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPR LOW HAS FINALLY EXITED STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTN...TAKING                       
WITH IT A RATHER PESKY LOW-LVL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED            
MANY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE SUNSHINE TODAY...HOWEVER CLEARING MAY BE           
TOO LATE FOR THOSE LIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.                   
OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48              
HOURS...AS MID-LVL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  FOR                         
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA           
DEW POINTS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SCOUR OUT AS IN LOCATIONS FURTHER              
WEST. THUS WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND                   
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...FEEL AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE           
BY DAYBREAK.                                                                    
PERHAPS THE NICEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY             
AS H850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST AND SFC WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SW.            
EVEN THOUGH WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE +13C            
TO +15C H850 AIR OVERHEAD...HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10+ DEGREES ABOVE                
NORMAL OVERALL.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A BIT OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUD              
COVER LIFTING NE BY MID-DAY...AT THIS POINT NOT FEELING THIS WILL               
HURT TEMPS MUCH.                                                                
MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND A BIT ON UPCOMING COOL FRONT ON                
MON. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS/UKMET/CMC SOLN...KEEPING                    
EFFECTIVE FRONT WEST OF THE CWA BY MON AFTN...AND MUCH OF THE AREA              
CAPPED. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED BACK MON AM POPS. BEST SYNOPTIC                  
FORCING DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON EVE/OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE SWINGS            
AROUND UPR TROUGH AND SHOULD ERODE EML. QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY WILL           
BE SPEED AND VOLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH CAN BE LIFTED NORTHWARD. DECENT           
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE SHUNTED EAST AS LLJ             
VEERS RATHER RAPIDLY. DEEPENING ON VOLUME OF MOISTURE SURGE AND                 
ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK...INSTABILITY/HEATING MAY BE AFFECTED OVER              
THE CWA. AS FAR AS SVR CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY            
REMAIN THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT SCT STRONG CONVECTION            
OVERNIGHT MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...MADE FEW           
CHANCES TO CURRENT POPS AND TEMPS AS BOTH SEEM REASONABLE ATTM.                 
DUX                                                                             
MEDIUM RANGE (TUE-SAT)                                                          
WHILE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH THE              
REGION ON TUESDAY...THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT GETTING EAST OF               
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. SO HAVE TAPERED POPS DURING               
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH FORECAST AREA DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH            
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE                       
FRONT...WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 60S BEHIND IT. RELATIVELY                
COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION            
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE             
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.                                                   
HOWEVER THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE                    
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE                   
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE                            
OUTLIER...DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT             
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN TAKING THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY EAST               
THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS QUICK ON ITS             
HEELS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.                                     
HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS A LITTLE                 
SLOWER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS.              
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THINKING DRY                  
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OFF PRECIP IN EASTERN SECTIONS. IF MOISTURE            
RETURN IS SHARP ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH EAST...THEN MAY GET STORMS ON             
THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER            
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING LOW...THINK BEST               
CHANCE WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE              
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH                 
FRIDAY...WHEN THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA. PROGS SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY HANG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. POPS AND QPF ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO              
THE EXPECTED TIMING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS...BUT BOTH WILL               
INCREASE AS THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR.                                    
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR            
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING IN THE 08-09 UTC TIMEFRAME AT STJ AND                     
PERSISTING THROUGH 13 UTC.  BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THE DENSEST FOG              
LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE...THUS CONTINUED PREVIOUS            
TAF FORECAST TREND OF INTRODUCING TEMPO GROUP IN THE 10-13                      
TIMEFRAME.  ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS AT STJ WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-15 UTC            
DUE TO MIXING.  BY LATE MORNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                    
SUFFICIENTLY THUS WIND SPEEDS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE              
AT OR ABOVE 12 KNOTS BY 16 UTC.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
PREVAIL.                                                                        
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1035 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WITH H8 RIDGE AXIS            
A GOOD DELINEATOR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS.  QUICK PEEK AT                
LATEST RUC INDICATES H8 RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT              
AND WILL CLEAR EASTERN EDGE OF CWA BY 12 UTC.  GIVEN THIS                       
SCENARIO...INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPETURES A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS                 
EASTERN CWA DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.                                      
ALSO TRIMMED FOG POTENTIAL A LITTLE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.                   
CIRRUS SHIELD IS ADVECTING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS AND                   
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DETRACT FROM                 
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION.  GIVEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITH 2-3               
DEGREES OF DEWPOINTS...KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN                            
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTH WEST AND NORTH               
CENTRAL MISSOURI.                                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPR LOW HAS FINALLY EXITED STAGE RIGHT THIS AFTN...TAKING                       
WITH IT A RATHER PESKY LOW-LVL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED            
MANY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE SUNSHINE TODAY...HOWEVER CLEARING MAY BE           
TOO LATE FOR THOSE LIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.                   
OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48              
HOURS...AS MID-LVL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  FOR                         
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA           
DEW POINTS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SCOUR OUT AS IN LOCATIONS FURTHER              
WEST. THUS WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND                   
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...FEEL AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE           
BY DAYBREAK.                                                                    
PERHAPS THE NICEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY             
AS H850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST AND SFC WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SW.            
EVEN THOUGH WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE +13C            
TO +15C H850 AIR OVERHEAD...HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10+ DEGREES ABOVE                
NORMAL OVERALL.  GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A BIT OF MID-UPR LVL CLOUD              
COVER LIFTING NE BY MID-DAY...AT THIS POINT NOT FEELING THIS WILL               
HURT TEMPS MUCH.                                                                
MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND A BIT ON UPCOMING COOL FRONT ON                
MON. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS/UKMET/CMC SOLN...KEEPING                    
EFFECTIVE FRONT WEST OF THE CWA BY MON AFTN...AND MUCH OF THE AREA              
CAPPED. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED BACK MON AM POPS. BEST SYNOPTIC                  
FORCING DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON EVE/OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE SWINGS            
AROUND UPR TROUGH AND SHOULD ERODE EML. QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY WILL           
BE SPEED AND VOLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH CAN BE LIFTED NORTHWARD. DECENT           
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE SHUNTED EAST AS LLJ             
VEERS RATHER RAPIDLY. DEEPENING ON VOLUME OF MOISTURE SURGE AND                 
ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK...INSTABILITY/HEATING MAY BE AFFECTED OVER              
THE CWA. AS FAR AS SVR CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY            
REMAIN THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT SCT STRONG CONVECTION            
OVERNIGHT MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...MADE FEW           
CHANCES TO CURRENT POPS AND TEMPS AS BOTH SEEM REASONABLE ATTM.                 
DUX                                                                             
MEDIUM RANGE (TUE-SAT)                                                          
WHILE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH THE              
REGION ON TUESDAY...THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT GETTING EAST OF               
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. SO HAVE TAPERED POPS DURING               
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH FORECAST AREA DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH            
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE                       
FRONT...WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 60S BEHIND IT. RELATIVELY                
COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION            
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE             
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.                                                   
HOWEVER THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE                    
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE                   
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE                            
OUTLIER...DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT             
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN TAKING THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY EAST               
THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS QUICK ON ITS             
HEELS...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.                                     
HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS A LITTLE                 
SLOWER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS.              
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THINKING DRY                  
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OFF PRECIP IN EASTERN SECTIONS. IF MOISTURE            
RETURN IS SHARP ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH EAST...THEN MAY GET STORMS ON             
THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER            
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED DEVELOPING LOW...THINK BEST               
CHANCE WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE              
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH                 
FRIDAY...WHEN THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA. PROGS SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY HANG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. POPS AND QPF ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO              
THE EXPECTED TIMING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS...BUT BOTH WILL               
INCREASE AS THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR.                                    
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR DECK NOW RAPIDLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE                 
TERMINAL LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AFTN.  CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO                
LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.  SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE              
ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING...WITH VARIABLE WINDS                    
EXPECTED.  WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY PICK UP SUN MORNING AS LOW-LVL FLOW             
VEERS TO THE SW.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF                 
LIGHT BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN STJ...AS A RESULT HAVE INTRODUCED A              
TEMPO GROUP FROM 10-13Z                                                         
DUX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
943 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED FOR A COUPLE OF CHANGES THIS EVENING. SFC RIDGE AXIS               
AT 02Z WAS ALREADY LOCATED IN CTLR IA...WITH SELY WINDS BECOME                  
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP              
MENTIONABLE FOG FROM FORMING...ESPECIALLY IF DRIER DEWPOINTS                    
CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF SD/CTRL NEB. AS A RESULT...HAVE                    
PULLED FOG MENTION FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.                  
HAVE ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...AS CWA HAS BEEN                
CLEAR FOR SEVERAL HRS. WILL SEE CI WORK SLOWLY NWD OUT OF KS INTO               
THE SWRN CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ERN CWA LIKELY TO               
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT GOING MIN TEMPS WITH BALANCE                 
BETWEEN DRIER AIR/CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING WINDS PREVENTING A                 
FULL DROP-OFF OF TEMPS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL...WINDS                     
SUNDAY...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY/ PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE                 
FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                      
STORM SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FINALLY PULLING                 
THE CLD SHIELD EAST OF THE FCST AREA.  SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MO                
VALLEY WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.                          
FOG...CONTINUED TO MENTION FOG ALONG THE MO RIVER AND EAST INTO WRN             
IA WITH 1-3 DEG SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HOW FAR TO BRING FOG WEST             
IS THE QUESTION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN BY                 
MORNING. NEXT TO THE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE MO RIVER...INCLUDED A               
STRIPE OF PATCHY FOG TO NR THE THE H85 RIDGE LINE...WITH LNK                    
BEING ON THE WRN EXTENT OF THE FOG. LOWS IN THE 40S STILL LOOK                  
REASONABLE TONIGHT.                                                             
WINDS...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE GFS HAS THE 40-50KT                
LOW LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL NEBRASKA SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA                
DURING THE MORNING AND WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERNIGHT               
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORY. PER BUFKIT FCST                      
SOUNDINGS NAM FCSTS WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL AT OFK/FBY AROUND                   
NOON...AT LNK EARLY IN THE AFTERNOOON...AND AT OMA MID AFTERNOON                
AND INTO SW IA BY EVE. CURRENT FCST IS CLOSE OR AT WIND ADVISORY                
FOR SUNDAY...DECREASING AFTER EARLY EVENING...BUT STILL                         
WINDY/BREEZY OVERNIGHT.                                                         
PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THE SFC FNT WILL                
BE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY. WITH DYNAMICS NOT REAL                  
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -TSRA LATE SUNDAY                         
NIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHC DURING THE MORNING.  WITH A SHORTWAVE                 
TROF APPROACHING IN THE FLOW POST-FRONTAL MONDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT A             
SLIGHT CHC/CHC FOR SHOWERS/-TSRA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST POPS                   
MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LEFT                       
THUNDER MENTION IN. SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA                        
TUESDAY...THUS LOWERED POPS IN THE MORNING AND DROPPED THEM IN THE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S SUNDAY...THEN 60S/70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                  
THE EXTENDED TUESDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH THE SFC FRONT S OF THE               
FCST AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. THE NEXT MID TROPOSPHERIC                  
TROF IS OVR THE NW U.S. AND THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK WAVE LIFTING              
ACRS THE WRN PLAINS...MEANWHILE A SFC WRMFT IS DEVELOPING OUT                   
WEST. AM COUNTING OF THIS FEATURE TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST...TO NOT                
INCLUDE PRECIP WED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SFC LOW FM CO TO            
WY MOVES INTO WRN NEB AND WRN KS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES                
AND VEERS WITH PRECIP EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS. AS WE GET INTO                 
THU...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND TIMING. THE CANADIAN                 
LIFTS THE SFC LOW NORTH TOWARD THE SD/ND BORDER...THE ECMWF TAKES               
IT TO ERN SD...AND THE GFS TAKES IT TO NW IA. HPC IS USING A                    
ECWMF/ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED. LOOKS LIKE A CHC FOR              
TSRA THU AND THU NIGHT. HELD ON TO SOME POPS FRIDAY DEPENDING ON                
THE SPEED/AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE              
EXTENDED...EXCEPT SOME 50S FOR FRIDAY.                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THRU 20/18Z.                                   
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOG                       
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.                   
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES              
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. RUC WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG                    
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WAS GENERALLY USED FOR THE FORECAST. ADDED SOME             
FOG AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z/10Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO GET DOWN TO 1/2SM AT            
KOMA AND 1SM AT KLNK FROM 11Z-13Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY BACK TO P6SM BY            
14Z. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WERE ALSO            
CONSIDERED...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20KTS SUSTAINED BY 16Z...AND               
LIKELY HIGHER BY 18Z AND BEYOND ESPECIALLY AT KOFK.                             
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
215 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL...WINDS                     
SUNDAY...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY/ PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE                 
FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                      
STORM SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FINALLY PULLING                 
THE CLD SHIELD EAST OF THE FCST AREA.  SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MO                
VALLEY WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.                          
FOG...CONTINUED TO MENTION FOG ALONG THE MO RIVER AND EAST INTO WRN             
IA WITH 1-3 DEG SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HOW FAR TO BRING FOG WEST             
IS THE QUESTION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN BY                 
MORNING. NEXT TO THE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE MO RIVER...INCLUDED A               
STRIPE OF PATCHY FOG TO NR THE THE H85 RIDGE LINE...WITH LNK                    
BEING ON THE WRN EXTENT OF THE FOG. LOWS IN THE 40S STILL LOOK                  
REASONABLE TONIGHT.                                                             
WINDS...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE GFS HAS THE 40-50KT                
LOW LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL NEBRASKA SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA                
DURING THE MORNING AND WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERNIGHT               
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORY. PER BUFKIT FCST                      
SOUNDINGS NAM FCSTS WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL AT OFK/FBY AROUND                   
NOON...AT LNK EARLY IN THE AFTERNOOON...AND AT OMA MID AFTERNOON                
AND INTO SW IA BY EVE. CURRENT FCST IS CLOSE OR AT WIND ADVISORY                
FOR SUNDAY...DECREASING AFTER EARLY EVENING...BUT STILL                         
WINDY/BREEZY OVERNIGHT.                                                         
PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THE SFC FNT WILL                
BE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY. WITH DYNAMICS NOT REAL                  
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -TSRA LATE SUNDAY                         
NIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHC DURING THE MORNING.  WITH A SHORTWAVE                 
TROF APPROACHING IN THE FLOW POST-FRONTAL MONDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT A             
SLIGHT CHC/CHC FOR SHOWERS/-TSRA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST POPS                   
MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LEFT                       
THUNDER MENTION IN. SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA                        
TUESDAY...THUS LOWERED POPS IN THE MORNING AND DROPPED THEM IN THE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S SUNDAY...THEN 60S/70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                  
THE EXTENDED TUESDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH THE SFC FRONT S OF THE               
FCST AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. THE NEXT MID TROPOSPHERIC                  
TROF IS OVR THE NW U.S. AND THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK WAVE LIFTING              
ACRS THE WRN PLAINS...MEANWHILE A SFC WRMFT IS DEVELOPING OUT                   
WEST. AM COUNTING OF THIS FEATURE TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST...TO NOT                
INCLUDE PRECIP WED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SFC LOW FM CO TO            
WY MOVES INTO WRN NEB AND WRN KS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES                
AND VEERS WITH PRECIP EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS. AS WE GET INTO                 
THU...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND TIMING. THE CANADIAN                 
LIFTS THE SFC LOW NORTH TOWARD THE SD/ND BORDER...THE ECMWF TAKES               
IT TO ERN SD...AND THE GFS TAKES IT TO NW IA. HPC IS USING A                    
ECWMF/ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED. LOOKS LIKE A CHC FOR              
TSRA THU AND THU NIGHT. HELD ON TO SOME POPS FRIDAY DEPENDING ON                
THE SPEED/AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE              
EXTENDED...EXCEPT SOME 50S FOR FRIDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THRU 20/18Z.                                   
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOG                       
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.                   
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES              
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. RUC WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG                    
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WAS GENERALLY USED FOR THE FORECAST. ADDED SOME             
FOG AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z/10Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO GET DOWN TO 1/2SM AT            
KOMA AND 1SM AT KLNK FROM 11Z-13Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY BACK TO P6SM BY            
14Z. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WERE ALSO            
CONSIDERED...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20KTS SUSTAINED BY 16Z...AND               
LIKELY HIGHER BY 18Z AND BEYOND ESPECIALLY AT KOFK.                             
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/DEWALD                                                                
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
1043 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INHERITED GRIDS LOOK TO BE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND                
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES              
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...SINCE LOW STRATUS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SLOW                     
DAYTIME HEATING A BIT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                     
MAIN FOCUS TODAY INCLUDES STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WITH WIND                   
ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING WARRANTED. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION            
FOR RED FLAG DETAILS. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES                
WITH SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WITH              
THUNDERSHOWERS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.                                       
CURRENTLY...INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN                   
WYOMING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TO SOUTH CENTRAL                  
SASKATCHEWAN. BY NOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER FAR WESTERN COUNTIES             
OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND BY EVENING NEAR DICKINSON TO EAST OF                      
WILLISTON. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE RED            
RIVER VALLEY. CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME               
HIGHER GUSTS...EXCEPT DICKINSON WHICH REPORTED 35 MPH GUSTING TO                
OVER 45 MPH. THINKING WINDS THERE SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE                    
MORNING. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY MY CENTRAL AND EASTERN                        
COUNTIES...ONE BEGINNING 15Z AND THE JAMESTOWN AREA BEGINNING 18Z.              
EXPECTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER              
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING            
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUT GOOD PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH             
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH            
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WEST WINDS MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS                
UPPER LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER LOW                
LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA.                                                        
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED             
PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE            
REGION AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WA/OR               
COAST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS              
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE             
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW                
PATTERN. THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH            
STABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS ENOUGH COLD            
AIR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF             
IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT BUT STILL ENOUGH                    
AGREEMENT ON QPF PATTERN TO RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GLOBAL GEM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. MODELS             
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM                
BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY             
AS THE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SLOWS THE                   
SURFACE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER NORTH DAKOTA                 
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY            
NIGHT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE LEAST CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS AND HAVE             
LEANED TOWARD AN ECMWF GLOBAL GEM SOLUTION HERE. THUS WE DID KEEP A             
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY BUT WENT DRIER                 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                                  
BEYOND THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD...THE GFS KEEPS A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE               
REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL AND BRINGS A BRIEF              
WARM UP ON SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN ON                   
SUNDAY.                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SEVERAL PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY. FIRST             
WILL BE WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST                 
MONTANA MAKES IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR              
PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST                
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL USE LATEST RUC AND NAM WIND GUIDANCE FOR A              
START ON WIND FORECAST. SECOND PROBLEM WILL BE SHOWER AND POSSIBLE              
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LIKELY CARRY A PROB30 GROUP FOR                     
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND FINALLY LOW               
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL             
HIT NORTHERN ZONES THE HARDEST WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY GAVE RISE TO               
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SEVERAL FIRES IGNITED AND WERE DIFFICULT TO                
CONTROL. WINDS WERE 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE                
HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 22 PERCENT.                                                 
FOR TODAY...EXPECTING WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH                
TODAY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH/FRONT IS                
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND NOON AND THE                  
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING...THEN BECOME                  
WESTERLY 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. FROM ROUGHLY BURKE COUNTY TO              
GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE DURING               
THE MORNING AND REMAIN IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 10 PM CDT.             
THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE                 
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVE              
HUMIDITY WOULD NORMALLY BE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER             
BECAUSE OF DORMANT/DRY VEGETATION WITH LITTLE OR NO GREENUP                     
REPORTED...AND SUCH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...WILL ISSUE THE RED FLAG             
BEGINNING AROUND 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL 10 PM              
CDT TONIGHT.                                                                    
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND THE                 
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION REACHING             
THE GROUND.  LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE A HAZARD                
WITH DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER INTO A              
RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.                                
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR                    
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.                     
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR                       
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-034>036-042-045>047-050.                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-037-048-                  
051.                                                                            
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ018-                
033-041-044.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JWS                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
826 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS WILL LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM CNTRL                
AND NE MN INTO NW MN AND SE ND. SATELLITE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN              
THE WRN EDGE OF CLOUDS NR AN KAXN-KADC-KINL LINE WITH THICKEST                  
CLOUDS EAST OF THIS LINE WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4500-5500 FT RANGE                
EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO IFR RANGE OVER FAR ERN MN INTO WI WHERE                  
MOISTURE IS DEEPER ON NORTH SIDE OF VERY SLOW MOVING UPR LOW IN                 
THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS                    
REMAINED INTACT AGAIN TODAY NR AN INL-AXN LINE KEEPING WITH A                   
SHARP CUTOFF AT 925-800 MB LAYER FROM MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND                  
VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST. 18Z NAM/RUC AND GFS ALL SHOW IDEA THAT                
THE 850 MB MOISTURE CURRENT AXN-INL EASTWARD WILL START TO MOVE                 
BACK WEST AS 850 MB WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE                      
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST AS MONTANA SFC LOW                
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. 21Z RUC SHOW 850 MB MOISTURE NR AXN                
AREA MOVING NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z INTO WCNTRL MN AND SE ND AT THIS                
MAY BE CORRECT. SEEING TRENDS THIS EVENING THAT POINT TO THIS IN                
THAT 40+ DEW PTS HAVE MOVED INTO WHEATON AND WAHPETON PAST FEW                  
HOURS WITH DEW PTS INCREASING INTO THE UPR 30S INTO SE ND AND NE SD.            
THUS COORD WITH MPX/DLH AND ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO                 
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. DID NOT GO AS WILD AS RUC WOULD                
SUGGEST UNTIL CLOUD TRENDS ARE MORE SET. DID ALSO INCREASE DEW PTS              
A BIT IN WCNTRL MN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DID BRING IN SOME MVFR CIGS INTO BEMIDJI OVERNIGHT AS               
850 MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST 06Z AND AFTER AND KEPT IN SOME MVFR                 
CIGS TIL LATE MORNING SUNDAY. OTHERWISE FOR NOW KEPT IDEA OF JUST               
SOME INCREASING CIRRUS AT FARGO-GRAND FORKS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BY                 
15Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS IN THE VALLEY WITH 20-30 KTS BY              
20Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008/                         
SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUE/                                             
CURRENT H500 PATTERN SHOWING A LOW OVER THE PAC NW AND SECOND LOW               
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE                     
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT H850...SEEING 40 DM HEIGHT FALLS                
OVER WA STATE AND WEAK SFC CIRCULATION OVER MT.                                 
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS               
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA. IN GENERAL...NAM AND GFS IN              
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING HOWEVER...AS USUAL...NAM IS A BIT                    
DRIER. THUS GOING PRIMARILY WITH GFS.                                           
GFS SHOWS H700 LOW DEEPEN OVER NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUN...AND                      
DEVELOPMENT OF DECENT BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BY MID DAY SUNDAY.                  
TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING UP                
DEW POINTS DRG THE DAY SUN.                                                     
SFC FRONT THEN PROGGED TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN FA BY 12Z                      
MON...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES AHEAD OF FRONT RANGING FROM NEG TWO                
TO NEG 4. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF                   
VALLEY AT 12Z MON...WITH RAPID RISE IN SHOWALTERS ACROSS THE                    
EAST BY MON AFTERNOON.                                                          
MAIN CHANGES TO PREV FCST ARE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TIMING OF                
FRONT. ELECTED TO NOT BUMP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CAT FOR 00Z TO 06Z              
MON AS MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING FRONT WELL TO WEST.                
BEYOND THAT...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR ORIENTATION OF FRONT                   
HOWEVER DID ADJUST POPS BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT IN LINE                 
WITH 12Z GFS. ALSO CHANGED PRECIP TYPE BEHIND THE TIGHT SHOWALTER               
GRADIENT TO RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER...VICE PREDOMINANTLY                     
THUNDERSTORMS. LAST ISSUE WAS QPF...APPEARS BOTH HPC AND GFS LIKELY             
OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS SO CUT AMOUNTS IN HALF.                                   
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP IN WRN DAKOTAS BEHIND              
THIS FRONT...WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIP IN CNTRL DAKOTA FOR                  
TUE. DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN MY SW.                   
FOR TEMPS...NEWEST MAV GUIDANCE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH PREV FCST                
AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.                                                
LONG TERM... /WED THROUGH SAT/                                                  
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS CANADA WILL RESULT IN                              
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A CHANCE OF              
PRECIPITATION RETURNS DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AS            
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLORADO SURFACE CYCLONES TRACKS INTO THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 0C THURSDAY NIGHT               
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS              
BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THIS TIME PERIOD.                                          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA OVER THE             
DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS                   
EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING RELATIVE                 
HUMIDITIES UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE             
WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
INTO THE CWA...AND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN            
THE HIGHT PLAINS. THUS...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 32             
TO 37 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO                   
SUNDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH                   
RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/SPEICHER/HOPKINS                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
157 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY              
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY                
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUC MODEL AND OPERATIONAL MODELS                 
FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.                                                     
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ERN KY THIS MORNING.                 
THIS LOW IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED                
OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBES                
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING/WEAK SFC TO                
850 MB CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS                 
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWFA.                     
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA TO ALSO WARRANT A                 
MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO                   
MID 60S.                                                                        
FOR TONIGHT...ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END QUICKLY                 
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL              
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.                                                
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS                          
AFTERNOON...AND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING TOWARD THE 60S AS                     
FORECAST...NO UPDATE IS NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ERN GREAT               
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.                
THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING               
THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM              
THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.                    
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE              
WEST. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE               
REGION...KEEPING A LOW CHC THREAT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACRS THE FAR               
NW CWFA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OH VLY ON WED. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN                 
SCATTERED AT BEST AS MAIN FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION              
ACRS NRN GRT LKS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC LO. WEAK LO LVL CONV                
AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CONVECTIVE                  
DVLPMNT ON WED. CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS A BIT FOR WED BUT HAVE                 
DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH 40 POPS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE                
TRENDING TOWARDS WEAKER AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT FOR WED...LATER              
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER LOWERING POPS BACK INTO THE 20-30%                
RANGE. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WED NIGHT AS                
SFC HI BUILDS IN ACRS THE GRT LKS.                                              
MID LVL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ACRS EASTERN CONUS ON                 
THURS...BRINGING DRY PLEASANT WX TO THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT            
NORTH THRU THE OH VLY LATE THURS NIGHT AND INTO FRI IN RESPONSE TO              
SFC LO MOVING INTO THE UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND             
MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE ALL COME INTO REASONABLE              
AGREEMENT IN TRACKING ASSOCD COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION FRI NIGHT               
INTO SAT AS SFC LO OCCLUDES NORTH OF THE GRT LKS. WILL CARRY CHANCE             
POPS THRU THIS PERIOD WITH SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE. SFC HI PRES WILL THEN            
BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH MID LVL RIDGE IN              
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT ABV NORM            
TEMPS TO PERSIST WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE U40S AND            
50S. WITH ZONAL FLO ALOFT IN WAKE OF FROPA ON SAT...EXPECT COOLER               
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE                 
40S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED                     
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO REDUCE                      
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. EXPECT MVFR MIST TO FORM AT ALL               
SITES STARTING AROUND 05Z CONTINUING TO 13Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY                  
OCCUR AFTER 13Z AT CMH AND LCK WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A                 
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.                 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN                                                    
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...CONIGLIO                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
550 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN NEARLY                   
STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMS                   
OVER VIRGINIA AND DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON                
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY              
STATIONARY AND SPREAD BACK SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...                                               
THE REGION IS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW               
TONIGHT AND AS THE LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED A STRONG SE FLOW AT            
850 MB TRIES TO TAP MOISTURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SEND IT            
NW TOWARD NW PA BY SUNDAY. THE NAM IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SE              
FLOW THAN THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCED A MOD TO LARGE                 
AMOUNT UVM TONIGHT SO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED                     
THUNDER.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING TO SHOW HIGHER INITIAL            
POP FOR MORE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER FOR ALL BUT              
NW PA WHERE PRECIP PROB WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED               
MORE LATER THIS EVENING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                               
THE CUT OFF LOW MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE            
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SOME SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED FROM SUNDAY            
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SO I DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A                    
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWER. LIKELY POPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE EAST HALF            
WITH THE MOIST SE FLOW A LOW LEVELS PERSISTING. THE SE LOW LEVEL                
FLOW WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AND ALLOW SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE. GFS                
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT AND MUTUALLY AGREED UPON ECWMF FOR               
THE EXTENDED WHICH BRINGS A FRONT IN A WEAKENED STATE ACROSS                    
WEDNESDAY AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT FOR SATURDAY.  WITH NO              
REAL CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE NEAR/SHORT TERM SYSTEM...HAVE HIGHS IN               
THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND ONLY BACKING OFF A FEW FOR WED/THU.  TEMPS              
CLIMB AGAIN FRI AS WED/THU FRONT WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A              
WARM FRONT.  COLD FRONT SATURDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN AND MAKE SLOW ESE                  
PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT                  
MOVED ACROSS FROM SW TO NE TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.                
SE FLOW CONTINUES FOR NW PA. DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS MADE PRECIP                   
IMPOSSIBLE THUS FAR ACROSS THE AREA.                                            
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FIRST CONCERN IS LAKE BREEZE.                   
ATYPICAL TODAY WITH SOME SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE BUT LAKE BREEZE                     
ALREADY AT DKK AND AND BKL. FOR ERI TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EMANATING                 
FROM SFC LOW TO DISRUPT LAKE BREEZE SOMEWHAT AND HAVE WINDS                     
COMING AROUND TO THE EAST-NE AT MOST. THEY MAY SWING EITHER WAY.                
FOR CLE WE MAY TEND MORE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBILITY                 
THAT THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PULL US TO THE WNW. WIND FORECAST ON                  
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RUC FORECAST. ALL OF THIS RELAXES THIS                   
EVENING AND WINDS AREA WIDE WILL PRETTY MUCH GO LIGHT/VARIABLE                  
WITH THE BROAD AND WEAK LOW OVER OHIO.                                          
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF WE DO GET A FEW SHOWERS IN TO                 
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT                
CHANCES SLIM AND THEREFORE NOT IN TAFS/EXCEPT FDY/. DELAYED THE                 
START OF ANY SHRA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE CENTRAL AND WESTERN                  
PORTIONS AS MOISTURE/SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OHIO AND ADDITIONAL                   
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WV IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA HAS NICE CONNECTION                
TO ATLANTIC FEED. ALSO ACROSS THE EAST CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABLE TO              
MOUNT SOME.                                                                     
VFR CIGS/VSBY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR AS LOW GETS CLOSER...AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...TRENDED THE                   
FORECAST TO SHOW POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE               
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR CONDITIONS AT                 
MOST SITES AT 12Z SUNDAY BUT THIS SEEMS TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN                   
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLIMATOLOGY TO THE CONTRARY.                             
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT               
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT AND                     
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING...COULD               
SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR/IFR ALONG THE FRONT BUT THIS SHOULD              
BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONSHORE               
FLOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE REGION. SLOW MOVING WEAK SYSTEM MOVING                 
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP LGT/VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS THE                  
LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MORE UNIFORM ESE                  
FLOW TO DEVELOP MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY               
WILL BRIEFLY BRING WINDS AROUND THE DIAL TO THE NW AND NORTH AND                
TO ENE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...REL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...ADAMS                                                               
SHORT TERM...REL/ADAMS                                                          
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN                                                             
AVIATION...OUDEMAN                                                              
MARINE...OUDEMAN                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
154 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO LOWER                
MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO                   
TONIGHT TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND CAROLINA COAST ON             
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN              
CANADA AND SPREAD BACK SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED. MOSTLY               
SUNNY SKIES OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW HAS                     
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ALREADY. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO                 
NEAR 80 THERE. PCPN ROTATING AROUND THE IL UPPER LOW IS HAVING TROUBLE          
FILLING IN AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL RATHER DRY. A LARGER AREA                 
OF SHOWERS OVER WV IS MOVING NORTH AND MAY REACH THE REGION BY MID              
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE                    
AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
AS SYSTEM GETS TOTALLY CUT OFF THERE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NO GULF                
INFLOW BY TONIGHT. PCPN WILL BECOME DEPENDENT STRICTLY ON UPWARD                
MOTION WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED AT NIGHT BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND                 
DURING THE DAY BY CONVECTIVE PROCESS. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS                  
SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE ESE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY            
AS LARGE DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAINS BLOCKED OVER E CANADA AND UPPER               
LOW GETS KNUCKLED UNDER THE RIDGE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A            
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGER ON SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL THINNING INTO             
MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS NW OHIO TONIGHT. WILL NOT GO AS          
HIGH AS GFS GUIDANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR NE OH/NW PA. THE SHOWERS                
WILL REACH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT AND COULD LINGER IN THAT                  
AREA BUT WITH DOWNSLOPE SSE FLOW CONTINUING AND THE VARIABILITY IN              
THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PIN DOWN THAT                       
PARTICULAR AREA AND WILL GENERALLY HAVE "CHANCE" POPS ON SUNDAY.                
AIRMASS WILL BE EXCHANGED IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE             
EXCEPTION OF NW PA AND SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS FILTER BACK TO ALL               
AREAS. AREAS THAT GET THE MOST SHOWERS WILL SEE TEMPS DEPRESSED THE             
MOST WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE RAIN WILL SEE TEMPS SNEAK UP                  
TOWARD THE UPPER 60S OR 70.                                                     
MONDAY TRICKY IN THE FACT THAT THE AXIS OF HIGHER THETA E AND                   
SURFACE TROUGH MAY LINGER. MY FIRST THOUGHT WAS THAT IT MIGHT GET               
CONVECTIVE AND NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT POP UP. MODELS DO            
NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY THOUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING                   
SHOWER...MAINLY N CENTRAL AND NE OH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20 POP                
(SLIGHT CHANCE) ON MONDAY. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING BY                     
TUESDAY THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A CATEGORY OR                 
TWO ON TUESDAY AS SOUTH FLOW GET REESTABLISHED.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE             
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL MOVE THIS            
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH                
PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING. MADE              
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC                
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH               
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO...WILL GO WITH A              
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE A FAIR             
AMOUNT OF SUN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND DECREASED FORECAST                 
CLOUD COVER.                                                                    
MODEL DISCREPANCIES MAKE THEMSELVES APPARENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH             
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THE               
EURO BRINGS A WAVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF              
SOLUTION TENDS TO AGREE MORE WITH THE 18Z GFS...THUS MAKING THE 00Z             
GFS SOLUTION THE OUTLIER AND HAVE DISCARDED IT ACCORDINGLY. WILL                
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS                
SHOWS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA                  
FRIDAY...AM HESITANT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION ENTIRELY GIVEN THE            
VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN AND MAKE SLOW ESE                  
PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT                  
MOVED ACROSS FROM SW TO NE TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.                
SE FLOW CONTINUES FOR NW PA. DRY AIR IN PLACE HAS MADE PRECIP                   
IMPOSSIBLE THUS FAR ACROSS THE AREA.                                            
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...FIRST CONCERN IS LAKE BREEZE.                   
ATYPICAL TODAY WITH SOME SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE BUT LAKE BREEZE                     
ALREADY AT DKK AND AND BKL. FOR ERI TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EMANATING                 
FROM SFC LOW TO DISRUPT LAKE BREEZE SOMEWHAT AND HAVE WINDS                     
COMING AROUND TO THE EAST-NE AT MOST. THEY MAY SWING EITHER WAY.                
FOR CLE WE MAY TEND MORE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBILITY                 
THAT THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PULL US TO THE WNW. WIND FORECAST ON                  
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RUC FORECAST. ALL OF THIS RELAXES THIS                   
EVENING AND WINDS AREA WIDE WILL PRETTY MUCH GO LIGHT/VARIABLE                  
WITH THE BROAD AND WEAK LOW OVER OHIO.                                          
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF WE DO GET A FEW SHOWERS IN TO                 
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT                
CHANCES SLIM AND THEREFORE NOT IN TAFS/EXCEPT FDY/. DELAYED THE                 
START OF ANY SHRA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE CENTRAL AND WESTERN                  
PORTIONS AS MOISTURE/SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OHIO AND ADDITIONAL                   
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WV IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA HAS NICE CONNECTION                
TO ATLANTIC FEED. ALSO ACROSS THE EAST CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABLE TO              
MOUNT SOME.                                                                     
VFR CIGS/VSBY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR AS LOW GETS CLOSER...AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...TRENDED THE                   
FORECAST TO SHOW POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE               
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR CONDITIONS AT                 
MOST SITES AT 12Z SUNDAY BUT THIS SEEMS TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN                   
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLIMATOLOGY TO THE CONTRARY.                             
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT               
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT AND                     
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING...COULD               
SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR/IFR ALONG THE FRONT BUT THIS SHOULD              
BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY                
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW                
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON               
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH. WINDS                
WILL RETURN TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN AN                  
EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT               
WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS              
VEERING TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN COMING AROUND OUT OF THE              
WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE                 
FRONT AND ITS WEAK NATURE...NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT            
ADV CRITERIA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK                                                              
NEAR TERM...REL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                            
LONG TERM...LEINS                                                               
AVIATION...OUDEMAN                                                              
MARINE...LEINS                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1020 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AGAIN TODAY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TODAYS GRIDS BASED ON MORNING            
TRENDS AND LATEST RUC. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE AFTN HIGH TEMP                
FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TRICKY TODAY... BUT THICKER BATCH OF CLOUDS              
WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY AND MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD GET NEAR                  
YESTERDAYS READINGS. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STRONG THIS                   
AFTN... BUT THESE SHOULD AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH             
WILL KEEP AFTN HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. STILL APPEARS THAT            
WE CAN GO WITHOUT ANY FIRE WX HEADLINES TODAY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.             
30                                                                              
---------------------------------------------------                             
350 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF               
THE AREA TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES NEARLY THE WESTERN                
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG              
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER               
THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN PULLING GULF MOISTURE               
NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA... ALTHOUGH WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS JUST NOW            
REACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN               
PULLING 60 DEWPOINTS INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.              
MEANWHILE... A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN LOW WILL               
TRACK MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THE                
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. TO OUR SOUTH... A SECOND UPPER WAVE                
THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BUT IT WILL LIKELY              
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN TEXAS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL              
BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IN                 
TURN SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PCT IN FAR WESTERN PARTS OF                
OK AND N-TX. WHILE WILDFIRE CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED BECAUSE OF              
THE STRONGER WINDS... THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                    
LIKELY HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.                           
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WE WILL SEE MUCH OF THE ENERGY                        
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE WESTERN LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK MAINLY TO               
THE NORTH OF THE AREA... BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH AN OCCASIONAL                 
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WEAK COLD FRONT WILL                  
MOVE THROUGH ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY                     
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN                  
LOW POPS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR MONDAY NIGHT                   
WHERE LIFTING OVER THE FRONT MIGHT GENERATE A STORM OR TWO.                     
HOWEVER... MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT CAP OVER MOST              
OF THE AREA THAT WOULD SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.                     
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY SHOULD                
HELP PUSH THE FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND                     
TUESDAY.                                                                        
WE WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF T-STORMS OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE                
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS UPPER WAVES MOVING OUT               
OF THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE AREA... WHILE                 
VARIOUS FRONTS TRAVERSE BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE AREA.                        
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GFS MAV/MEX GUIDANCE INCLUDED...               
MONDAY NIGHT - PULLING THE MAV 20 PCT POPS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST                
TO INCLUDE SOME OF OUR SE ZONES WHERE CONVERGENCE ON A FRONT AND                
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN A FEW                  
PLACES.                                                                         
TUESDAY - COOLED THE MAV HIGH TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR                 
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND TO IMPROVE CONSISTENCY               
WITH GFE GRIDDED TEMPS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                 
THURSDAY - SMOOTHED OUT AN APPARENT LOCAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY                   
DEPICTED IN NW WOODWARD COUNTY WHERE THE MEX MAX TEMPERATURE                    
GUIDANCE WAS 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NEARBY SURROUNDING AREAS.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  59  81  61 /   0  10   0  10                              
HOBART OK         83  58  86  58 /   0  10  10  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  65  88  62 /   0  10   0  10                              
GAGE OK           87  48  83  51 /   0  10  10  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     81  60  79  62 /   0  10   0  20                              
DURANT OK         79  63  82  67 /   0  10   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/32                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
925 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL GO AHEAD AND SEND AN UPDATE TO ADDRESS SOME CHANGES MADE TO THE            
GRIDS WRT TO TEMPS AND WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CHANGES TO MIXING            
HEIGHTS/TRANSPORT WINDS FOR FIRE WX. MUCH OF THE CHANGES BASED ON               
MORNING TRENDS AND LATEST RUC FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                    
30                                                                              
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
502 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTH                 
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES                
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR THIS MORNING                 
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE                  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON                   
SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR                   
WEST. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULL MORE MOISTURE... AND SOME                    
LOWER CLOUDS... NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE                     
DRYLINE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED NEAR THE                      
WESTERN OK-TX PANHANDLE BORDER IN RESPONSE TO VEERING WINDS OVER                
WEST TEXAS AND THE MOISTURE RETURN TO THE EAST.                                 
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...                    
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FIRE WEATHER                  
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR OUR FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. FOR THIS                 
AFTERNOON... THE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW 20             
PERCENT IN THE FAR WEST BUT THOSE AREAS MAY NOT REACH WIND SPEED                
CRITERIA UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... THERE IS             
STILL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE DRYLINE            
WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF LIKELY IS MIXING THE MOISTURE OUT TOO FAR TO             
THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM MIGHT BE JUST A BIT TOO MOIST IN               
THE FAR WEST. THE NAM WAS ALSO LOWERING THE WIND SPEEDS NEAR AND                
BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW... WE DO NOT PLAN TO               
ISSUE A WATCH.                                                                  
FARTHER WEST... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE                  
WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BEGIN SPREADING ITS                   
INFLUENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY.                              
CONCERNING THE T-STORM CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK... THE                     
EARLIEST POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NEAR THE DRY               
LINE. HOWEVER... MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL STILL               
BE RATHER SHALLOW... WHILE A MID LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENS OVER THE                 
AREA. A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL                   
LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN                 
THESE FACTORS... WE WILL NOT MENTION STORMS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER                 
UPPER WAVE MAY BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH                  
COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS IN THAT AREA. T-STORM CHANCES                      
INCREASE A BIT MORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO                
THE REGION. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS STARTS TO FALL OFF                   
ABOUT THIS TIME... SO WILL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS AT                
THIS POINT.                                                                     
REGARDING THE DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS BY MIDWEEK...                 
THE GFS AND ECMWF 500 MB PATTERNS START TO MOVE OUT OF PHASE FROM               
EACH OTHER BY THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER               
THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH                  
MOVING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN US. THE OPERATIONAL GFS                  
ALSO HAS MUCH MORE AMPLITUDE IN A WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER                
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE QUITE A                  
BIT. THE NET RESULT OF THESE DIFFERENCES IS THAT THE GFS PUSHES A               
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MEX                     
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION IN COOLING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL                 
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS FOR THE PERIOD TUES NIGHT THROUGH EARLY               
FRI AS COMPARED TO THE PAST MODEL RUNS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS                  
SOLUTION IS NOT HELPED BY THE FACT THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS                
EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE                   
ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHTS DO INDICATE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO OUR                 
WEST... A SOLUTION THAT MORE CLOSELY MIRRORS THE ECMWF RATHER THAN              
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE NEW                
TREND OF THE GFS TO DEPICT GREATER COOLING NEXT WEEK AND THAT MOST              
OF OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES ARE HANGING ON TO WARMER TEMPERATURES                
FOR NOW... WE WILL DISCARD THIS PART OF THE MEX TEMPERATURE                     
GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK.                
WE WILL ALSO ADJUST WIND DIRECTIONS MORE CLOSELY MATCH TO THE                   
ECMWF GUIDANCE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  53  78  58 /   0  10  10  10                              
HOBART OK         81  54  82  57 /   0  10  10  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  55  83  62 /   0  10  10  10                              
GAGE OK           84  48  84  48 /   0  10  10  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     76  51  79  60 /   0  10  10  10                              
DURANT OK         80  54  80  64 /   0   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/32                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
202 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A                
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND                 
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY                    
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME PORTIONS OF                        
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD SEE AN                
INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.                                 
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW PRESSURE                   
SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
BANDS OF SHOWERS (SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY) WERE TRAINING NNWD AND                    
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ATTM. 12 KM NAM AND 13 KM RUC APPEAR                
TO BEE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW AND LIKELY TOO LIGHT WITH                
THE QPF FROM THESE RAIN BANDS.                                                  
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND SCENT ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT               
TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH                     
EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.                                    
MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...AS RAIN STARTS TO COOL               
THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE                   
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                                    
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LVL LOW. LATEST SOLUTIONS          
BEGINNING TO SLIDE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE SUN MORNING...WITH A CENTER OVER         
EXTREME SE KY BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL AID IN SLIDING THE BEST                     
PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.                  
FEEL THAT WITH THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDING OVERTOP FROM QUEBEC...THIS                
WILL AID IN STEERING VORT FURTHER SE AND MAY EVEN FILTER IN SOME                
DRY LOW/MID-LVL MOISTURE. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN                
CONSISTENCY AND PROXIMITY OF LLJ...DESPITE LATEST BUMP IN TRACK TO THE          
SOUTH. MIXED LYR SHOULD TAP PORTION OF LLJ...SO COULD SEE GUSTS UP              
TO 30MPH IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS.                                                 
SREF PLUMES PROGGED A FOCUS OF 1.00 INCH FOR STATE COLLEGE THRU                 
SUN NIGHT...WITH 1-1.5 TOWARDS MASON-DIXON LINE...HOWEVER THIS                  
APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENCE DRIVEN EVENT VS. A CONVECTIVE DRIVEN                
EVENT. ATTM DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...QPF TOTALS                  
SHUD NOT POSE ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.                                          
WILL STILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED...TRAINING                  
HEAVY RAIN BANDS/MINOR SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...               
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SCENT PENN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON                    
HOURS SUNDAY. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE PAINTED THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM NEAR             
KAOO...SSE TO KMRB AND KHGR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
BEST CHC OF RAIN WL SHIFT TO S PA MONDAY. AFTER TUESDAY                         
AFTERNOON...THINK ANY RAIN FROM CUTOFF WOULD BE SOUTH OF C PA.                  
SOME SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THU WITH NEXT FRONT...BUT NOT LOOKING                
LIKE A STRONG FRONT...BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WESTERN                      
SECTIONS.                                                                       
CHC OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT FRIDAY...BUT A WAYS OUT...SOME TIMING                   
CONCERNS WITH THAT FRONT. FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH A CHC...                     
MAINLY THE GMOS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                    
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART INTO LATE NEXT                     
WEEK...BUT CLDS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS                      
CLOSER TO NORMAL.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MEAN A GRADUAL               
DECREASE IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. EXPECTED                
ALL STATIONS TO BE IFR/MVFR BY MORNING...WITH PROBABLY A SLOW LIFT              
BACK UP TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL                
KEEP LESS THAN VFR WEATHER IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY AT LEAST.                    
DRIER AIR SHUD BUILD IN LATER MON-TUES...BUT THE CEILINGS MAY BE                
STUBBORN TO GO AWAY AS WE WILL SEE A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP                 
THRU MID WEEK. IT ALL POINTS TO ONLY SLOW CHANGES FOR THE NEXT                  
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...ONCE THINGS DETERIORATE...THEY               
COULD STAY THAT WAY FOR A WHILE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BEACHLER                                                     
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BEACHLER                                                    
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BEACHLER                                                   
LONG TERM...BEACHLER/MARTIN                                                     
AVIATION...LACORTE/GARTNER                                                      
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
849 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT THROUGH JUST ABOUT THROUGH FORECAST                    
AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF A KMBG-KPIR-KICR LINE. GUSTY              
NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.              
WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED LOW END ADVISORY AS STRONGEST PRESSURE               
RISES MOVE THROUGH...BUT ARE STARTING TO DECREASE. A FEW POST                   
FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH                           
DAKOTA...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. LATEST WRF/RUC MOVE SHOWERS                  
EASTWARD REST OF THE EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST WINDS/TEMPS BASED ON LOCATION              
OF COLD FRONT...AND TO LOWER POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS                        
NORTHEAST WYOMING OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER CIGS PUSHING INTO NW SD                
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS AT KRAP WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 05Z.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                
WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER WYOMING. WAVE MOVING THROUGH                   
CENTRAL WYOMING SPARKING SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. COLD FRONT HAS            
PUSHED THROUGH NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS SHIFTED THE WINDS            
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S.                
WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW AVERAGE             
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                 
HAVE LEFT POPS ALONE FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH              
WYOMING. WILL SHIFT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AND            
LEAVE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW            
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT ALLOWING PRECIP             
TO DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS ARE DECREASING            
IN SPEED AT KICR AND KVTN BUT STILL EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT              
K9V9 SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE STRONGER WINDS ARE SHIFTING                    
EASTWARD WITH THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO WILL CANCEL THE WIND            
ADVISORY EARLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL.                                               
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA MONDAY AS THE NEXT                     
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING THE            
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS SHIFTING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER            
NORTH SO TRENDED THAT WAY WITH THE POPS.                                        
EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY                
WITH LEE TROF ADVANCING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A               
CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS ACRS NE WY...SW SD AND THE BLACK HILLS...SO                
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS. THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD LEAD TO A            
WARM DAY...AND HAVE AGAIN TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD. STRONG UPR TROF WILL            
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THU                          
NIGHT...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHC FOR PCPN ALONG WITH COOLING                  
TEMPS. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND               
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH                 
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
915 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NEW AVIATION                
DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE JUST TOO                
HIGH TO LET IT REMAIN IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED UP AROUND 40              
DEGREES WHICH GIVES RH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL              
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR              
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.              
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN IN                     
CRITERIA OFF AND ON ALL DAY SO WILL LET THE HEADLINE GO THROUGH                 
00Z THIS EVENING. FOR THE AREAS IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS                  
EAST WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY...HAVE ALREADY CUT BACK STOP TIME TO              
00Z AND WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO CANCEL               
IT ENTIRELY AS THE EAST HAS NOT REALLY MADE IT TO CRITERIA TODAY.               
ALTHOUGH 850 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS              
ACCORDING TO RUC. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ANALYSIS BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE. LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING IN TOUGH ACROSS THE FAR                      
NORTHEASTERN CWA...EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS WILL EASTERLY FLOW                
HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE POOLING. ALTHOUGH AS THE LATE AFTERNOON                
PROGRESSES INTO EVENING...STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER               
OUT. COLD FRONT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE                   
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE                 
FRONT AND WILL APPROACH CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES AROUND 03Z OR SO. HI              
RES MODELS/REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS/SREF DATA STILL SHOWING ISO                 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING CROSS WESTERN SOUTH                    
DAKOTA...MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HAVE                   
ALTERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE                   
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                 
EVENING AS LIS DROP JUST BELOW ZERO. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO SPARK ISO/SCT CONVECTION.                      
EXPECTING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
OVERNIGHT. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BY 18Z TOMORROW              
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT AFTER 18Z. A WEAK WAVE MOVES                
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT NOT LOOKING TO                         
IMPRESSIVE. REDUCED POPS DOWN TO 15 PERCENT AS MOST ISOLATED                    
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO                 
NORTH DAKOTA.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED                     
FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD A              
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS APPARENT IN ENSEMBLE SPREADS. STAYED              
WITH THE IDEA OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL H5 LOW                   
WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
MOVES OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. KEPT               
WITH THE GOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS A GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS               
UP AHEAD OF THE LOW. FRIDAY THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS               
THE MAIN SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. STILL A FAIR               
AMOUNT OF ENERGY REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL H5 FLOW WITH A TROUGH               
MOVING EAST OF THIS AREA AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THIS              
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE WEEK END WITH SOME SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF                  
THIS AREA BUT DID RUN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN               
TIER OF THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. NEAR                     
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL PREVAIL WHICH WAS WHAT WAS IN THE GOING                   
GRIDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER               
OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH JUST SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AOA              
7K FEET TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME                    
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AN ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                 
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. SHOULD ANY                         
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP...CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION AREAS WILL                  
NOT FALL BELOW 5K FEET.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
723 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED DUE TO EXPIRATION OF WIND ADVISORY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE JUST TOO                
HIGH TO LET IT REMAIN IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED UP AROUND 40              
DEGREES WHICH GIVES RH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL              
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR              
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.              
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN IN                     
CRITERIA OFF AND ON ALL DAY SO WILL LET THE HEADLINE GO THROUGH                 
00Z THIS EVENING. FOR THE AREAS IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS                  
EAST WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY...HAVE ALREADY CUT BACK STOP TIME TO              
00Z AND WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO CANCEL               
IT ENTIRELY AS THE EAST HAS NOT REALLY MADE IT TO CRITERIA TODAY.               
ALTHOUGH 850 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS              
ACCORDING TO RUC. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ANALYSIS BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE. LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING IN TOUGH ACROSS THE FAR                      
NORTHEASTERN CWA...EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS WILL EASTERLY FLOW                
HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE POOLING. ALTHOUGH AS THE LATE AFTERNOON                
PROGRESSES INTO EVENING...STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER               
OUT. COLD FRONT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE                   
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE                 
FRONT AND WILL APPROACH CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES AROUND 03Z OR SO. HI              
RES MODELS/REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS/SREF DATA STILL SHOWING ISO                 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING CROSS WESTERN SOUTH                    
DAKOTA...MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HAVE                   
ALTERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE                   
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                 
EVENING AS LIS DROP JUST BELOW ZERO. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO SPARK ISO/SCT CONVECTION.                      
EXPECTING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
OVERNIGHT. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BY 18Z TOMORROW              
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT AFTER 18Z. A WEAK WAVE MOVES                
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT NOT LOOKING TO                         
IMPRESSIVE. REDUCED POPS DOWN TO 15 PERCENT AS MOST ISOLATED                    
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO                 
NORTH DAKOTA.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED                     
FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD A              
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS APPARENT IN ENSEMBLE SPREADS. STAYED              
WITH THE IDEA OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL H5 LOW                   
WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
MOVES OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. KEPT               
WITH THE GOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS A GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS               
UP AHEAD OF THE LOW. FRIDAY THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS               
THE MAIN SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. STILL A FAIR               
AMOUNT OF ENERGY REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL H5 FLOW WITH A TROUGH               
MOVING EAST OF THIS AREA AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THIS              
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE WEEK END WITH SOME SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF                  
THIS AREA BUT DID RUN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN               
TIER OF THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. NEAR                     
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL PREVAIL WHICH WAS WHAT WAS IN THE GOING                   
GRIDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SISSETON                  
HILLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS IT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AS              
FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE HILLS. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF               
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                    
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF                    
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN TAFS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL MONITOR               
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WIND WILL CONTINUE               
TO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS STRONG SOUTH               
EAST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...PARKIN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
348 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE JUST TOO                
HIGH TO LET IT REMAIN IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED UP AROUND 40              
DEGREES WHICH GIVES RH VALUES FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL              
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR              
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.              
AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN IN                     
CRITERIA OFF AND ON ALL DAY SO WILL LET THE HEADLINE GO THROUGH                 
00Z THIS EVENING. FOR THE AREAS IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS                  
EAST WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY...HAVE ALREADY CUT BACK STOP TIME TO              
00Z AND WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO CANCEL               
IT ENTIRELY AS THE EAST HAS NOT REALLY MADE IT TO CRITERIA TODAY.               
ALTHOUGH 850 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS              
ACCORDING TO RUC. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ANALYSIS BEFORE ZONE                  
ISSUANCE. LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING IN TOUGH ACROSS THE FAR                      
NORTHEASTERN CWA...EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS WILL EASTERLY FLOW                
HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE POOLING. ALTHOUGH AS THE LATE AFTERNOON                
PROGRESSES INTO EVENING...STILL EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER               
OUT. COLD FRONT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE                   
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE                 
FRONT AND WILL APPROACH CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES AROUND 03Z OR SO. HI              
RES MODELS/REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS/SREF DATA STILL SHOWING ISO                 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING CROSS WESTERN SOUTH                    
DAKOTA...MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HAVE                   
ALTERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE                   
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                 
EVENING AS LIS DROP JUST BELOW ZERO. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO SPARK ISO/SCT CONVECTION.                      
EXPECTING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA                 
OVERNIGHT. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART BY 18Z TOMORROW              
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT AFTER 18Z. A WEAK WAVE MOVES                
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT NOT LOOKING TO                         
IMPRESSIVE. REDUCED POPS DOWN TO 15 PERCENT AS MOST ISOLATED                    
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO                 
NORTH DAKOTA.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                     
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED                     
FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD A              
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS APPARENT IN ENSEMBLE SPREADS. STAYED              
WITH THE IDEA OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL H5 LOW                   
WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                 
MOVES OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. KEPT               
WITH THE GOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS A GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS               
UP AHEAD OF THE LOW. FRIDAY THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS               
THE MAIN SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. STILL A FAIR               
AMOUNT OF ENERGY REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL H5 FLOW WITH A TROUGH               
MOVING EAST OF THIS AREA AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO MONTANA. THIS              
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE WEEK END WITH SOME SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF                  
THIS AREA BUT DID RUN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN               
TIER OF THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. NEAR                     
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL PREVAIL WHICH WAS WHAT WAS IN THE GOING                   
GRIDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SISSETON                  
HILLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS IT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AS              
FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE HILLS. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF               
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                    
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF                    
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN TAFS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL MONITOR               
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WIND WILL CONTINUE               
TO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS STRONG SOUTH               
EAST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-          
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                
     LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1204 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY                                                         
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED NICELY IN AND AROUND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY              
BUT LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS AND POINTS EAST.                
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THINNING AND CONTINUED                   
EROSION FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THIS AREA SO EXPECT A GRADUAL                    
CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE FORECAST                 
HIGHS A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE SO FAR BROUGHT HIGHS DOWN               
A COUPLE DEGREES AS ETH/VVV/8D3 STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AT THIS              
TIME. FEEL THAT ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS                 
WILL RISE NICELY UNDER STRONG APRIL SUN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                   
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE                        
ADDITIONAL UPDATES FOR MAX TEMPS OUT EAST. WILL LET WIND ADVISORY               
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS CENTRAL SD CONTINUES TO SEE                
LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA. MBG ALONG WITH A FEW SDSU/RAWS SITES                 
HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 30S MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSE               
TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATER                
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING STRONGEST 850/925 MB WINDS RIGHT                 
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND THESE WINDS WEAKEN A BIT AS THEY MOVE                 
EAST BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PULL CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL                   
WINDS. AS FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING...WILL OPT TO KEEP IT IN PLACE               
AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITERIA.                     
DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST WITH PIR/MBG                
SITTING AT 43 RIGHT NOW. WITH THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN                      
PLACE...ALONG WITH DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR CLOUD TO                   
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES LATE THIS                 
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING.                
WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND MAY DECIDE TO CANCEL IT               
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. LATEST MODEL DATA BEGINNING                
TO HINT AT CONVECTION OCCURRING AFTER DARK OUT WEST SO CLOUD TO                 
GROUND LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR DURING SUNLIGHT                    
HOURS. COLD FRONT POSITION RIGHT NOW ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN                     
DAKOTAS. BUFFALO AND BOWMAN SHOWED SHARP TEMP DROPS AS FRONT MOVED              
THROUGH. LATEST NAM/RUC SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO MOVEMENT IN COLD FRONT               
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.                                          
MULTIPLE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. FIRST                
OFF IS MORNING FOG THAT HAS DRIFTED IN FROM MINNESOTA ON EASTERLY               
FLOW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MORNING HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED               
TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY.                             
NEXT ISSUE TO ADDRESS WILL BE MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW               
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN               
CWA...WITH H85 WINDS OF +50KTS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WILL                 
BEGIN TO MIX IN WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY...GIVEN BUFKIT PROFILES                  
WITH +45KTS AT 2KFT. DURING THE DAY...JET MAXIMUM MOVES EAST...BUT              
WILL NOT REACH EASTERNMOST COUNTIES UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE                      
AFTERNOON...SO THIS WONT BE A CWA WIDE EVENT. ADDRESSED ALONG WITH              
THESE STRONG WINDS IS THE FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY. HAVE ISSUED A RED              
FLAG WARNING BASED ON WINDS DESPITE MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30               
PERCENT RANGE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LACK OF GREEN UP ACROSS                 
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SD.                                                       
WILL SEE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES                 
ACROSS THE CWA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A              
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 300J/KG. DRY                        
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SUGGEST HIGH BASE...DRY LIGHTNING/STRONG WINDS             
AS THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS                
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY.                                 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES TUESDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL                 
TROUGH ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW.                                                
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. UPPER TROF ALONG               
THE WEST COAST PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY.              
THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ACTUALLY FORMS A CLOSED                
UPPER LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA...AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN                  
AND THEIR OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROFS. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS             
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                   
STRONG LLJ WILL HELP TRANSPORT LLM QUICKLY NORTH. THE GFS ADVECTS               
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF UP TO 60F ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE ABR CWA.                 
HAVE A FEELING THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT 50F DEWPOINTS CERTAINLY             
A POSSIBILITY. ALSO BELIEVE THE HIGH GFS DEWPOINTS ARE ADVERSELY                
AFFECTING ITS STABILITY PROGS. HOWEVER...THAT SAID THE                          
DYNAMICS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALL SUPPORT             
THUNDER...AND THUS STRATIFORM PCPN WAS CHANGED OVER TO CONVECTIVE               
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                               
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROUGHT UP               
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A NOTCH TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN BOTH                
THE ECMWF AND GFS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SISSETON                  
HILLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS IT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AS              
FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE HILLS. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF               
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                    
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF                    
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN TAFS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL MONITOR               
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WIND WILL CONTINUE               
TO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS STRONG SOUTH               
EAST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
STRONG WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED                
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE                     
EXACERBATED BY A LACK OF GREENUP ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS                  
SPRING. AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE DAY                
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. RELATIVE                   
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND               
DESPITE VALUES ABOVE THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...WINDS OF 25 TO 35                  
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. IN                 
ADDITION...THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO                
WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP               
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SD...THESE WILL PRODUCE LITTLE ACTUAL              
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER                       
     MISSOURI COTEAU.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-          
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-                
     LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.                             
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-            
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.                                                    
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TMT                                                                    
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1039 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO FORECAST HIGH                
STILL ON TRACK. A PLEASANT DAY SHAPING UP. WIND WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS              
WIND FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE EXCEPT TO               
ADJUST RATE OF WARMING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING                                            
SEVERAL ISSUES THIS FORECAST CYCLE...MAINLY PERTAINING TO FIRE                  
WEATHER. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE LOW 30S/UPPER                  
20S...ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH SURFACE          
HIGH MOVING EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAP SLIGHTLY               
MORE HUMID AIR OVER THE MIDWEST. THE LAG BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT OF                 
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST HAPPENS               
TO BE DURING PEAK HEATING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE                
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE THREAT. CONTINUE TO                  
SUPPORT DEW POINTS IN FORECAST THAT ARE BELOW MODEL                             
GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN                   
THAT...HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG                         
WARNING...AND WILL FORGO ISSUANCE.  INCREASED MOISTURE SUNDAY                   
WOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS                 
OF +40KTS WILL OFFSET THE HIGHER RH VALUES.                                     
H85 TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE BETWEEN +15C TO +6C FROM WEST TO                
EAST...AND INCREASE TO +18C TO +9C FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.                  
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES EASILY TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS HIGHS              
IN THE 70S. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE                
+50KTS OR SO WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN                   
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...THOUGH OVERALL           
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. BETTER CHANCE EARLY MONDAY AS COLD FRONT              
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS REGION...WILL SEE CAPE VALUES UP TO                
500 J/KG AND MARGINALLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES.                                     
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY                   
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND WAITING IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE ENERGY ALOFT            
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER FOR              
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF ADVANCING FRONT.      
BUT FOR LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LEAVE PCPN AS              
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTION AS PROGS SHOW FAIRLY STABLE                     
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE EMPHASIS FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND                     
TUESDAY WILL COME FROM A WAVE THAT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND                 
ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN A NICE LOOKING JET MAX IS PROGGED BY THE                
GFS TO CROSS THE REGION. AFTER TUESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES                
DRASTICALLY WITH ECMWF AND GFS AT ODDS ON EVOLUTION OF THE MID                  
LEVEL PATTERN. ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS                
TROF...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET INDICATE RIDGING.                                    
TEMPERATURES WERE AN AMALGAM OF INHERITED GRIDS/00Z MEX GUIDANCE.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY CLOUDS           
GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS.                               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KEEFE                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TMT                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
952 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH                      
MOISTURE INTO NORTH TEXAS. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S HAVE REACHED AS                
FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER AND AS FAR WEST AS ABILENE. VERY SHARP               
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH            
DEW POINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. INCREASING                 
LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL FACILITATE STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. STRATUS                 
ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP                  
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MODELS STILL BREAK OUT                 
PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW                           
APPROACHES...EVEN THOUGH THE CAP WILL BE STRONG EARLY ON.  SH/13                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
0Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                                 
GFS MOS IS MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH SHOWING IFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX              
BY EARLY MORNING. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MET/FWC MOS KEEP THINGS               
MVFR. WILL THEREFORE NOT GO AS LOW AS MAV MOS THIS ISSUANCE DUE TO              
LACK OF AGREEMENT...AND WAIT UNTIL 6Z TRENDS TO DECIDE ON IFR.                  
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AROUND 6Z IN THE METROPLEX AND LOWER TO              
NEAR 1000 FT BY 8-9Z.  BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL                    
FORECASTS HAVE HELD THE MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON                
TOMORROW WITH VFR OCCURRING AT AFW/FTW A 2-3 HOURS BEFORE DFW/DAL.              
FOR WACO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON IFR CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY                   
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL. TR.92              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AS A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CONSUMING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED                 
STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.            
A WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE AS WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT                 
850 MB COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE                    
NORMAL. WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WHERE CLOUD               
COVER WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND IN THE UPPER 80S IN                
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE                  
MOVES IN.                                                                       
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE TOMORROW                 
WILL MIX AND HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS WHICH BRINGS THE                 
DRYLINE INTO OUR WESTERN THIRD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GOOD                         
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN              
THE AREA OF THE DRYLINE BUT A STRONG CAP MAY PREVENT ANY STORMS                 
FROM DEVELOPING. ALSO THERE IS NO INDICATION OF UPPER LEVEL                     
FORCING TO HELP BREAK THE CAP AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO                  
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A FEW MODELS                
SUGGEST THE CAP MAY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH                  
ENOUGH HEATING...AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.               
IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP IT HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE                  
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL                    
INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                    
WESTERN THIRD WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT POP.                                       
WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STALL                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...AND THEN RETREAT BACK                 
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME STILL REMAIN AT 20-30 PERCENT. INSTABILITY               
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH NO LARGE              
SCALE FORCING TO HELP STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER                    
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CANNOT RULE               
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO APPROACHING OR REACHING SEVERE                     
LIMITS.                                                                         
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL                        
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND RAIN                   
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 40 PERCENT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE                        
DISTURBANCES NORTH OF TEXAS AND IF THIS HAPPENS THE BEST RAIN                   
CHANCES MAY STAY UP IN OKLAHOMA...THEREFORE DO NOT WANT TO GO                   
HIGHER WITH POPS AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END                     
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCES EXIT THE REGION. SEVERE                    
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.                          
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AHEAD OF              
AND ALONG IT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES                   
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE WEATHER FOR NOW LOOKS DRY AFTER                   
FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO                      
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OUR WAY.                                             
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  83  68  87 /  10  10  10  10                          
WACO, TX              64  83  65  87 /  10  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             61  78  66  82 /  10  10  10  20                          
DENTON, TX            65  84  67  85 /  10  10  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          64  83  67  85 /  10  10  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            68  83  68  87 /  10  10  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           65  82  68  85 /  10  10  10  20                          
CORSICANA, TX         65  81  67  86 /  10  10  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            64  83  66  89 /  10  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
626 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
0Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                                 
GFS MOS IS MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH SHOWING IFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX              
BY EARLY MORNING. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MET/FWC MOS KEEP THINGS               
MVFR. WILL THEREFORE NOT GO AS LOW AS MAV MOS THIS ISSUANCE DUE TO              
LACK OF AGREEMENT...AND WAIT UNTIL 6Z TRENDS TO DECIDE ON IFR.                  
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AROUND 6Z IN THE METROPLEX AND LOWER TO              
NEAR 1000 FT BY 8-9Z.  BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL                    
FORECASTS HAVE HELD THE MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON                
TOMORROW WITH VFR OCCURRING AT AFW/FTW A 2-3 HOURS BEFORE DFW/DAL.              
FOR WACO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON IFR CIGS TONIGHT AND EARLY                   
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL. TR.92              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AS A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CONSUMING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED                 
STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.            
A WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE AS WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT                 
850 MB COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE                    
NORMAL. WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WHERE CLOUD               
COVER WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND IN THE UPPER 80S IN                
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE                  
MOVES IN.                                                                       
SOME DISCREPANCY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE TOMORROW                 
WILL MIX AND HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS WHICH BRINGS THE                 
DRYLINE INTO OUR WESTERN THIRD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GOOD                         
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN              
THE AREA OF THE DRYLINE BUT A STRONG CAP MAY PREVENT ANY STORMS                 
FROM DEVELOPING. ALSO THERE IS NO INDICATION OF UPPER LEVEL                     
FORCING TO HELP BREAK THE CAP AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO                  
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A FEW MODELS                
SUGGEST THE CAP MAY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH                  
ENOUGH HEATING...AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.               
IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP IT HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE                  
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL                    
INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                    
WESTERN THIRD WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT POP.                                       
WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STALL                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...AND THEN RETREAT BACK                 
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME STILL REMAIN AT 20-30 PERCENT. INSTABILITY               
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH NO LARGE              
SCALE FORCING TO HELP STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER                    
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CANNOT RULE               
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO APPROACHING OR REACHING SEVERE                     
LIMITS.                                                                         
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL                        
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND RAIN                   
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 40 PERCENT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE                        
DISTURBANCES NORTH OF TEXAS AND IF THIS HAPPENS THE BEST RAIN                   
CHANCES MAY STAY UP IN OKLAHOMA...THEREFORE DO NOT WANT TO GO                   
HIGHER WITH POPS AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END                     
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCES EXIT THE REGION. SEVERE                    
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.                          
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AHEAD OF              
AND ALONG IT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES                   
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE WEATHER FOR NOW LOOKS DRY AFTER                   
FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO                      
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OUR WAY.                                             
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  83  68  87  67 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
WACO, TX              64  83  65  87  67 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
PARIS, TX             62  78  66  82  65 /  10  10  10  20  20                  
DENTON, TX            65  84  67  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
MCKINNEY, TX          64  83  67  85  65 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
DALLAS, TX            68  83  68  87  68 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TERRELL, TX           65  82  68  85  67 /  10  10  10  20  20                  
CORSICANA, TX         65  81  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
TEMPLE, TX            64  83  66  89  68 /  10  10  10  10  20                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/82                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
255 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL                       
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.                      
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OHIO             
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM MANIFESTED BY CLOUD               
SHIELD WRAPPING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW             
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...PRECIPITATION HAD ENDED.           
ATMOSPHERE STILL MOIST BENEATH CLOUDS COVER...AS EVIDENCED BY                   
RELATIVELY CLOSE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...             
ANOTHER MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST.               
19.12Z DETERMINISTIC NCEP AND EUROPEAN MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.              
THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD               
RECEIVE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. ONLY              
MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD             
BE 850MB TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. NAM/WRF HAD WARMEST VALUES...                  
WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN HIGHEST VALUES OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SUITE.                
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT             
DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS. CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE             
CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT                 
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR CLEARING TO ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING. LATEST RUC...NAM/WRF AND GFS SUGGEST RELATIVELY DRIER AIR              
SHOULD WRAP WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT MOST LOCATIONS             
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF            
DENSE FOG...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT COULD           
BE. AT THIS TIME...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SPIRIT OF CURRENT DATA BASE.               
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LATEST DATA SUITE SUPPORTED PREVIOUS MODEL                
TRENDS WITH REGARD TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING LATE MONDAY                
NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. TONGUE OF SURFACE DEW            
POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG THE FRONT EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL           
THETA-E CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...TO PROVIDE            
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. TIMING OF FRONT AND ONSET             
OF FORCING SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN             
CHANCES INCREASING INTO LIKELY CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.              
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGHEST 0-6KM WIND SHEAR             
VALUES RESIDE IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF           
0-3KM CAPE OF 1000-1500J/KG BUILDS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PER CURRENT SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...SLIGHT            
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WAS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST            
IOWA. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST THREAT MAY EVEN BE             
FURTHER WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND HIGHEST WIND SHEAR.               
BASED ON NAM/WRF 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST AROUND 12C AHEAD OF COLD            
FRONT ON MONDAY...NAM/WRF MOS GUIDANCE HAD WARMEST MAXIMUM                      
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NGM AND GFS DATA SUITE. ACCORDING TO                   
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND PLAN VIEW OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...THERE           
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION TO ALLOW WARM SECTOR HEATING.             
THUS...OPTED TO NUDGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD AREAWIDE MONDAY.              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
PRIMARY FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                    
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A                     
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE TO AFFECT THE             
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT                  
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA. CURRENT LOW-END RAIN CHANCES IN            
THIS TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY WARRANT AN UPGRADE BASED ON POTENTIALLY           
STRONG DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FOR              
NOW...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOCUS FOR NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL BE TREND OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG ACROSS            
THE AREA. LOW STRATUS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE/FOG IN DEFORMATION AREA ON             
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. VISIBLE SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE                    
OCCLUSION OVER EASTERN HALF OF WI...AND ALSO BREAKS ON THE WESTERN              
FRINGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER MN/IA.                                          
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...             
AND THIS LOOKING ON TARGET...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN THAT              
HAS FALLEN RECENTLY. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY BROKEN CONDITIONS OVER THE             
EAST...IN THE VFR CATEGORY INITIALLY. BUT EXPECT SOME FOG                       
DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD MORPH INTO LIFR IN FOG/STRATUS AGAIN. OVER              
THE WEST...EXPECT AREAS THAT CLEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY                     
ADVANCING RIDGE AXIS...TO SOUP IN WITH FOG AND STRATUS.  AREAS THAT             
STAY UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY ACTUALLY SEE THE HIGHEST                 
VISIBILITY.  FOR THE TAF FORECASTS AT 18Z...OPTED TO GO ON THE                  
PESSIMISTIC SIDE...WITH LIFR.  THIS IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD            
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT PRIOR TO THE NOON HOUR TOMORROW...SO THE                
LATER PERIODS OF THE TAFS WILL START SHOWING THIS IMPROVEMENT.                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOW OVER...BUT NOT BEFORE 3 DAY TOTALS OF 2.5 TO            
3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/WESTERN WI. AS EXPECTED...THIS              
LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RESULTING IN GOOD RISES FOR               
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED BANKFULL OR                
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  UPPER HALF OF THE KICKAPOO BASIN HAS PAST                   
CREST...WITH THE FLOOD WATERS NOW MOVING DOWN STREAM.  AT THIS POINT            
LOOKING LIKE CREST WILL BE JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  SAME FOR THE                
UPPER IOWA RIVER...WITH DORCHESTER THE CLOSEST TO REACHING BANKFULL.            
MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WERE ALONG THE TURKEY RIVER...ESPECIALLY FROM            
ELKADER DOWN THROUGH GARBER. MINOR IN THAT AREA...CRESTING NEAR OR              
JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE BLACK RIVER APPEARS TO BE HAVING THE                
WORST OF IT...HAVING JUST COME DOWN FROM A SIGNIFICANT RISE LAST                
WEEK. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND NEW RAIN TOTALS SENDING HATFIELD                
AND BLACK RIVER FALLS TO THE HIGHEST CRESTS IN A WHILE.  THIS WILL              
TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD GALESVILLE. EXPECT HIGHWAY VV TO BE                 
CLOSED AGAIN ALONG THE LA CROSSE/TREMPEALEAU COUNTY LINE FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM......THOMPSON                                                   
AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...MW                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
255 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
06Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A COMPLEX AND VERY                  
STATIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. MAIN                
FEATURES OF NOTE FOR OUR FORECAST INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING AND CLOSED              
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS.                  
ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION IS                  
RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS            
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. FURTHER UPSTREAM WEAK RIDGING IS                
PUSHING NORTH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GOMEX OVER THE SOUTHERN AND                
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN THESE              
TWO SYSTEMS RESULTING IN FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. EVEN                 
FURTHER TO THE WEST WE FIND A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. THE              
LOW IS CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BUT               
HAS INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST              
CANADA PROVIDING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES.                                
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS              
THE MID-ATLANTIC RESIDES ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. LARGE AREA OF            
SURFACE RIDGING WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO              
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND                     
NORTHEAST GULF COASTS. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DRY AND SEASONABLE             
EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH UPPER 50S                
AND LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. AREA                   
OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS HAS BEEN OVERSPREADING OUR SKIES FROM THE                
WEST THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES                 
EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS               
ANY ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST AND WELL TO OUR WEST.               
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GOMEX TO THE WESTERN              
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES             
WILL FORCE THE CLOSE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO BEGIN            
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE               
WILL DRAG THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST AS WELL WITH BOTH EXITING OFF               
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE RESULT FOR OUR            
FORECAST AREA WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN WITH SURFACE             
RIDING HOLDING IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAY WILL START OUT            
WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS (DESCRIBED ABOVE). NAM/GFS INITIALIZED            
THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL AND BOTH SHOW THE BULK OF                  
THE CIRRUS EXITING DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RESULT                
WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A SCT CU FIELD.            
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10 AND 12C RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE              
AGAIN RISING INTO GENERALLY THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH             
SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...THE DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO FUEL A               
FAIRLY DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE COAST FOR THE                    
AFTERNOON (10-15 MPH). COOLER AIR IMPORTED OFF THE SHELF WATERS                 
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE               
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED WEATHER OR                 
SURFACE PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WOULD EXPECT HEALTHY                      
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AGAIN TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOONS KEEPING THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES             
TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO            
NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.                                                        
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL GULF            
COAST CONTINUES TO FORCE THE UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST TO A POSITION                  
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM                 
FURTHER OFFSHORE...MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE                   
OVERHEAD. WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL HAVE              
TO WATCH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROWN BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY               
THE CIRCULATION THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS. AT             
THIS POINT...WOULD EXPECT ANY LOWER CLOUDS TO REMAIN TO OUR                     
EAST...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT MORE CLOUD-COVER TUESDAY NIGHT                
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND THE EASTERN FL BIG              
BEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AMPLIFIES AND BEGINS TO MOVE                
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC                
STATES BY THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE                   
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND                    
WEDNESDAY SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH LOWER 80S COMMON INLAND AND                 
MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY                 
NIGHT ON THE SEASONABLE SIDE WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO                
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...RATHER SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL            
BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                      
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE                
EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH            
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER            
FAR EASTERN ZONES. BY FRIDAY...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO              
BEAT DOWN THE RIDGE...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE                   
WESTERN ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. EVOLUTION OF THIS              
APPROACHING SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR ATTM...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
APPEAR PRUDENT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL                    
DIFFERENCE MORE APPARENT BY SUNDAY...WITH ECMWF PUSHING COLD FRONT              
SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND GFS HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OF JUST NORTH              
OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
UNTIL MORE OF A CONSENSUS DEVELOPS.                                             
TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S THURSDAY AND               
POSSIBLY FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...INCREASING               
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.                         
OVERALL...SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL YIELD VFR                  
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE                  
CRITERIA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD             
DEPENDING ON THE EXACTLY WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP. SEA BREEZE               
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN             
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN A BIT                   
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST...BUT STILL BELOW HEADLINE                 
CRITERIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A POSITION BY WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THAT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR EASTERLY SURGES            
OF WIND AT NIGHT. THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE                  
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINT IN THE             
UPPER 40S WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL RH THIS             
AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA. CURRENT WARNING COVERS THIS             
WELL. NEAR CARBON COPY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY SO WILL HOIST FIRE WX                
WATCH FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  83  50  83  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  80  59  80  61  80 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       83  54  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       81  53  83  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     82  50  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   84  52  83  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO                
     7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                  
     BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...              
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                  
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CAMP                                          
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
300 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
ONLY WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.               
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                    
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES              
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE                
LATCHED ON TO THE DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERS VISIBILITIES QUITE A BIT            
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY THE                   
BLUEGRASS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. MAY                
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD VISIBILITIES LOWER TO 1/2 MILE                
OVER A BROAD AREA.                                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE BLOCKY. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW             
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A UNSEASONABLY                
DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AS IS TYPICAL OF                  
CUTOFF LOWS...AREAS AROUND THE DISTURBANCE NOT AFFECTED BY                      
CLOUDINESS WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE MILD WEATHER. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR            
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW.                             
THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR EAST WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH A VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE                
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOSTLY CLEAR                 
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN                 
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                              
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE            
INROADS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE                
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT              
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF SLOWING FRONT DOWN AND               
PUSHING MAIN ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...INSTEAD OF BRINGING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND               
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE                
DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO             
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATING UPPER               
RIDGE AXIS MAY BE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO              
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND                 
ALSO. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND AFTER               
PERIOD AND MONITOR MODELS AND TRENDS AT A LATER TIME. PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BELOW.                          
THU THRU SUN...                                                                 
THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND HPC WITH ASSISTS               
FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.                                          
CONSENSUS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND HPC IS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE             
THRU OUR FA THU WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING AND MOVING THRU FRI NIGHT.             
UPR LEVEL TROF IN ARREARS OF FRONT TO APPROACH/MOVE THRU SAT. AT                
THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE POINTS AT LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE BEST              
CHC FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL                  
APPROACH/PASSAGE. IT IS THIS PERIOD...WHERE WE WILL INSERT HIGHEST              
CHC POPS. FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI AFTN...WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40% POPS AS             
WMFNT REACHES UPR OH VLY BY EARLY FRI WITH CDFNT ACRS MO AT THAT                
TIME...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING ON SLY FLO.                            
DEBATED ABOUT LEAVING SAT DRY PER OUR CURRENT FCST FAVORING THE                 
ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC/GFS ENSEMBLES WITH SMALL CHC                
POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR LEVEL                 
TROF. WILL END RAIN CHCS SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS HIGH                
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY.                    
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST...ABOVE LATE APR SEASONAL NORMS...ON THU AND              
FRI WITH WMFROPA AND PRECDFNT. COOLEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SAT AND SUN               
NIGHT (GENERALLY 40 TO 45) OWING TO COLD ADVECTION SAT NIGHT AND                
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO 1-5C.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                         
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO VARIOUS DEGREES AT ALL TAF SITES                  
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STRATO-CU IS SLOWLY ERODING AND SHOULD ALLOW               
VFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AT SDF BY 08Z. CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT             
AT LEX AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT BWG OVERNIGHT.                          
WINDS ARE LIGHT...WITH A DISTINCT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP.              
FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE 08 TO 10Z TIME FRAME. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE            
AT THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATION OF BWG. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF URBAN            
AREAS...WIDESPREAD FOG IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND               
THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT SDF AND              
LEX...AND MOST PROBABLY...TO IFR AT BWG.                                        
AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES JUST AFTER DAWN...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR              
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSD                                                                
LONG TERM....MACZKO/13                                                          
AVIATION.....JSD                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
408 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE HIGH              
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ARE SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHWEST               
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER              
WESTERN CANADA. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND A                
WEAK RIDGE BLANKETS THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS               
DEPICTS DEEP LOWS OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A                 
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTING THE TWO. ALSO A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN.                        
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN OVER                    
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA TODAY...WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW                 
DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO                
EASTERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. 310K             
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ASCENT OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN                  
WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY               
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                   
INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE                         
SHORTWAVES...AND A SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND               
2.5K FEET. THIS SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. THE LATEST            
TRAJECTORY FORECAST SUGGEST THAT THE AIR MASS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN               
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL WORK INTO THIS AREA TODAY. THIS WOULD               
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.                     
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TREK INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT. WEAK             
SHORTWAVE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE                
WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...            
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ISENTROPIC               
ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL               
ALSO HELP HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP. THUS LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES               
AROUND 50.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT TO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON TUESDAY. AS             
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A NARROW AREA OF               
MUCAPE VALUES OF 300J/KG WILL MOVE WITH THE FRONT. A NARROW BAND OF             
DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT AREA WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND A                 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.                                            
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL FILL AS IT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY            
NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ROTATE            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MARCH INTO THE LOWER             
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE            
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OUT THE CANADIAN                   
PRAIRIE AND INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PUSHED ALONG BY A HIGH SETTLING            
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE               
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.                           
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE               
HIGH DOMINATING THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND LOW LEVEL STABLE                     
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE NORTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER               
MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. A LOW CENTRER WILL                   
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SLIP INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE AIR              
MASS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE AREA.                                             
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH                 
DAKOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PRODUCE RAINS OVER MINNESOTA. THE MID            
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL              
SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL                 
ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE WEST END OF THE            
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL                
SLIDE OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF             
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY (ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN)...                                        
AT THE CHOCOLAY RIVER THE LATEST READINGS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN             
STAGE SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. LATEST RFC FORECAST HAS DELAYED THE              
CREST...WHICH IS 10 FEET...UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CHANGE IS A            
DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE STAFF              
GAUGE NEAR CHASSELL ON THE STURGEON RIVER IS NOW ABOVE 10.5 FEET PER            
READINGS FROM THE HOUGHTON COUNTY EM. FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE               
THERE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING AT A COUPLE OTHER                        
SITES...BOTH THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER            
NEAR WITCH LAKE LOOK AS IF THEY WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS               
WEEK. THOUGH THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN HAS BEEN FALLING              
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE IN THE                 
CLEAR WITH THIS RIVER YET. WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...EXPECT               
THIS RIVER TO RISE THROUGH TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE            
NORMAL AND MELT ANY REMNANT SNOW COVER. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN               
EYE ON MIDDLE BRANCH OF ESCANABA NEAR HUMBOLDT FOR THE SAME REASONS             
AS THE TRAP ROCK. FOR THOSE GAUGES THAT DO END UP RISING ABOVE FLOOD            
STAGE THIS WEEK ONLY EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO               
MONITOR QPF AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPECTED                  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE FLASHY NATURE OF THE TRAP ROCK               
RIVER BASIN EVEN HALF AND INCH OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME COULD                
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN RIVER STAGE.                                              
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS... PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                    
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE FCST OVERNIGHT. KCMX AND KSAW ARE             
CURRENTLY VFR. QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE            
NEXT SEVERAL HRS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                 
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH E TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW AT BOTH SITES             
AND UPSTREAM SFC DWPTS AROUND EXPECTED MIN TEMPS...FOG/STRATUS IS               
STILL A POSSIBILITY. NONETHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF             
THE SFC AND THE FAIRLY DRY AIR PER EVENING RAOBS AND TAMDAR                     
SOUNDINGS...WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FROM THE PREVIOUS               
FCST. WILL TAKE CONDITIONS AT KSAW DOWN TO MVFR LATER IN THE NIGHT              
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR AROUND SUNRISE AND KEEP KCMX VFR AS NO FOG             
ON THE LAKE CURRENTLY AND TEMP DEW POINT SPREAD IS GREAT ENOUGH NOT             
TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME. RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE TO VFR             
BY 14Z AT KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU THE END OF               
THIS FCST PERIOD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS UNTIL LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN WINDS             
WILL GET UP TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE             
GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF                
HERE. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
HYDROLOGY...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON/GM                                                           
MARINE...GM                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
110 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...A SCT TO BROKEN 10K-12K MID CLOUD DECK WILL HANG AROUND             
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THE LAST INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL               
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN               
MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY AS THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...ALLOWING LOWER              
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD IN NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI                 
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 5-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK AT TIMES FOR               
PLN/TVC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS STILL VFR THRU THE             
FORECAST.                                                                       
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 929 PM SUN APR 20...                                           
AN UNEVENTFUL EVENING. WE FINALLY MANAGED TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LATE              
AFTERNOON CU FROM GRAYLING/HTL WESTWARD...BUT NO SHOWERS. SKIES HAVE            
GONE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI...AND PARTS OF EASTERN             
UPPER. THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING BACK              
ACROSS LAKE HURON...AND WILL ADJUST CLOUD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.            
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SE IS ABOUT TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE.               
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKES WILL SLIDE SE...AS A              
REX BLOCK FORMS OVER THE EAST COAST. CIRRUS WILL STOP ITS INROADS AS            
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES TO OUR SE...LATE TONIGHT AND              
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.                                            
LOW LEVELS AREN/T QUITE AS DRY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...AND WE/LL SEE             
AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.             
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN READINGS THE LAST              
FEW NIGHTS.                                                                     
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM SUN APR 20...                                  
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW CONTINUING TO BE DOMINATED BY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE                      
APPALACHIANS WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL               
NOAM.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE              
UPPER PENINSULA HAVE BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH LEAVING ALL OF                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  AMPLE SUNSHINE            
COMBINED WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO             
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH EVEN SOME                   
REPORTS OF LOW 80S AROUND WELLSTON/PRUDENVILLE/BELLAIRE.  RH LEVELS             
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVENT DROPPED QUITE AS LOW AS EXPECTED                 
YET...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 27-32F. MEANWHILE...ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK             
OF THE UPPER LOW...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS ROTATING NE TOWARDS LAKE              
ERIE BUT IS HAVING TROUBLE PENETRATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS                
LOWER MICHIGAN.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST                   
CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                      
TONIGHT...UNDERCUTTING UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC             
COAST WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE              
GREAT LAKES.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARDS LAKE HURON AND NE LOWER/EASTERN                
UPPER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TO VARIOUS DEGREES THAT THE MOISTURE             
PLUME FALLS APART AS IT REACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS LESS              
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM IN THIS REGARD...AND THINK THAT THE NAM IS              
THE BETTER WAY TO GO GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL                  
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA              
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST.               
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.                                                      
TOMORROW...ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY IN STORE FOR NORTHERN                    
MICHIGAN.  A SMATTERING OF LOW-MID CLOUDS TO START THE                          
MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER INLAND AREAS FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.  ANY CU THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY A               
MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 600-700MB.  THIS CAP LOOKS POTENT ENOUGH TO               
KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE DESPITE A MORE MOIST PROFILE THAN TODAY            
AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZES ACROSS NW LOWER WITH               
THE PREVALENT NE FLOW.  HOWEVER...IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER            
40S MATERIALIZE...THEN CHANCES FOR A SHOWER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE             
LAKE BREEZE.  HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AWAY               
FROM THE LAKES.                                                                 
MPC                                                                             
MON NIGHT THRU WED...PRIMARY FCST CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES TUE            
AFTN/NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH            
LARGE GYRE ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENING UP THRU MON AFTN AS               
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY BRIEFLY UNDERCUTS BLOCKING RIDGE INTO                 
ALASKA...WITH REMNANT ENERGY SHEARING OUT THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE            
AFTN/EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THRU             
THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WED...WITH OBVIOUS INCREASING THREAT             
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. STILL APPEARS QG SUPPORT WILL SLIP                 
NORTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH WITH DECENT MOISTURE TAP PER WIDE OPEN             
WESTERN GULF AND MODEST SFC-700MB CONVERGENCE ALONG INCOMING                    
BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...IN LINE WITH                    
PERSISTENT TREND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BIGGEST                  
QUESTION REMAINS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS APPEARS               
DECENT HEATING LIKELY TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE THERMAL RIDGE (HIGHS UPR             
60S TO MID 70S) TUE AFTN...WHILE SFC-850MB THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO            
THE AREA. COUPLED WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE REGIME PER BACKING OF LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT...AS WELL AS MODEL HINTS OF                  
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DIFFICULT            
TO RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ACRS THE WESTERN CWA. FCST              
RAOBS WITH A 72/48 PARCEL (WHICH SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE) YIELD 200-300            
J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH ARGUABLY GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDOING MOISTURE                
JUST A TAD. IN EITHER CASE...CHANCY POPS CERTAINLY WARRANTED...                 
ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST TREND FOR GUIDANCE TO SPEED UP TIMING OF                 
ENTIRE SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE A QUICK END TO PRECIP BY SUNRISE WED AS               
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY TAKE HOLD...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE            
WAKE OF FROPA WITH 1000-500MB RH FALLING OFF THE TABLE TO AROUND 25%            
VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE. COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S                
WARRANTED FOR WED AFTN WITH QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION (H85 TEMPS             
DIP TO AROUND 3-5C PER GEFS MEAN - OPERATIONAL GFS WAY TOO                      
COOL)...THOUGH LIKELY OFFSET BY INSOLATION OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AFTN              
CU GIVEN THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD.                                               
LATER PERIODS (WED NIGHT THRU SUN)...RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN TO                   
PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL                
RIDGING ACRS ALASKA FAVORING DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVR CENTRAL                   
CANADA...WITH AN EXTENSION INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE                
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP...THOUGH             
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN             
CONUS TROUGH. STILL APPEARS A NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THU AS LOW/MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE             
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOULD END UP BEING A RATHER SUNNY                     
DAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME POTENTIAL INCREASE IN JET-DRIVEN CIRRUS BY                
AFTN...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL APPEARING TO BE JUST A TOUCH TOO             
COOL GIVEN EXPECTED INSOLATION. THEREAFTER...INCREASING PRECIP                  
CHANCES IN ORDER FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS ENERGY UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC               
BLOCKING RIDGE AIDS IN KICKING WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD...WITH                   
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT/SFC FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE               
ACRS THE PLAINS BEFORE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES.                  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUITE WARM DAY ON FRI WITH REGION FALLING IN              
THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...AND HAVE THUS GONE               
ABOVE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH                 
INCOMING FRONT...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH              
SOME REMAINING TIMING ISSUES.                                                   
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
523 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION              
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
CAN BE EXPECTED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE FOG ACRS THE WRN HALF               
OF THE FCST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL...CLEAR               
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS               
OF DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL 10 AM EDT...AND HAVE THUS ISSUED             
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF              
BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                             
MID LVL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE              
OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. BELIEVE OPERATIONAL GFS AND                
NAM-WRF ARE OVERDONE WITH THEIR FCST INSTABILITY FOR THIS                       
AFTN...AND THUS...WILL NOT BUY INTO THEIR LIGHT QPF FOR THE ERN                 
FCST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTN. THUS...AM EXPECTING JUST PARTLY SUNNY              
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.             
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE                  
ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SKIES WILL BE                
MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES             
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S.                                                     
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL                 
APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF BRINGS FRONT            
INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL              
GFS TRIES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY                      
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATEST SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THE               
IDEA OF ONLY PUSHING THE FRONT INTO FAR NRN INDIANA AND FAR NRN                 
OHIO AS MID LVL RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS MORE ON WEDNESDAY.                      
THUS...AM HAVING MY DOUBTS ABOUT PCPN FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE MID              
LVL RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER...THUS KEEPING THE FRONT AT                       
BAY...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN HPC                
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 FOR WEDNESDAY.                
LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO DETERMINE IF IT MAY EVENTUALLY BE                  
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID              
AND UPPER 70S.                                                                  
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE                 
WASHED OUT. MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
MID LVL RIDGE REESTABLISHES THURS WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE OH VLY.              
WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13-14C AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURS             
AFTN...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE M/U70S. SVRL LOCATIONS COULD               
APPCH 80 DEG. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATE THURS             
NIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC LO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. PCPN                   
CHANCES WILL BEGINNING TO INCREASE LATE THURS NIGHT BUT EXPECT                  
PCPN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SCATTERED WITH PRESENCE OF SFC HI RIDGE               
JUST EAST OF REGION. FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR FRI AS COLD FRONT                 
APPCHS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND                     
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SCT TSTMS FRI/FRI                   
NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS 00Z GFS/UKMET WHICH HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE              
MOVEMENT TO FRONT...WITH FROPA FRI NIGHT ACRS FCST AREA. HAVE                   
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 POPS FOR FRI AFTN/NIGHT.                                   
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT WITH PCPN ENDING AS            
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. NW FLO ALOFT WILL ENSURE COOLER              
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE             
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WEAK SFC HI HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION ERLY THIS MRNG. WEAK FLO                  
THRU THE BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION HAS                 
CONTRIBUTED TO IFR ST DECK ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA. ST HAS EXPANDED              
INTO KCVG/KLUK/KDAY TERMINALS WITH VSBYS CRASHING BELOW 1SM.                    
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG ST NOT LKLY TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL OVER                 
NEXT SVRL HOURS AS LO LVL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. EXPECT                 
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE CVG/DAY METRO AREAS FOR                 
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS ERLY LO LVL FLO BECOMES ESTABLISHED TOWARDS                  
DAYBREAK...MAY SEE SOME SUBTLE IMPROVEMENTS AT KDAY. SHALLOW MVFR               
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT REMAINING TERMINALS THRU DAWN.                   
INVERSION WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE MRNG WITH BNDRY LYR                 
MIXING REFOCUSING CU DVLPMNT NEAR 4KFT BY ERLY AFTN. HAVE A                     
FEELING MVFR HZ WILL LINGER AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY FOR GOOD PART OF THE              
MORNING BEFORE MORE EFFICIENT LO LVL MIXING CAN ESTABLISH. BKN CU               
FIELD WILL PERSIST ACRS FCST AREA THRU THE AFTN. CU WILL THEN                   
DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                                
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-            
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.                               
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>098.            
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-            
     059-066-073>075-080.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
115 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SLIDE OFF TO              
THE EAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL                 
LATE TUESDAY...WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT                 
LAKES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ESE                      
AWAY FROM THE REGION. PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO END WITH THE                    
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH PRECIP ENDING HAVE DROPPED ANY                    
MENTION OF RAIN TONIGHT. A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING HAS OCCURRED                   
THIS EVENING...BUT LATEST IR SATL IMGRY SHOWING STRATUS DEVELOPING              
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SW OHIO/SE INDIANA AND NRN KY. EXPECT                
THIS STATUS TO CONT TO EXPAND WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.             
HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN EVENING ZONE UPDATE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                        
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS              
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE SOME WEAK INSTBY...MODELS SEEM TO BE              
OVERDOING THE PRECIP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY             
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITHIN THE RIDGE.                       
THEREFORE WENT AGAINST THE MODELS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR                 
MONDAY. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CU REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                
THE EAST. FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICK TO                  
TURN TO THE SOUTH WHICH BRINGS ABOVE AVG TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION               
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON TUESDAY AS                  
SFC FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER THE                     
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EJECT INTO THE GREAT                  
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SENDING A WEAK FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE CWA              
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG                
THE FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN                  
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS                
REGION. STUCK CLOSER TO SLOWER NAM TIMING WITH THIS                             
PRECIP...BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE                
TUES NIGHT. IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS TO THE                 
WEST TUESDAY EVE...POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE SPED UP INTO THIS                
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN OUT             
A BIT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT  LAKES ON                 
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PUSH DOWN              
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING                   
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WILL STILL ONLY CARRY A 30-40 POP FOR THIS SYSTEM            
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                               
RIDGING WILL THEN BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION                 
THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS TROUGH OVER                
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WORKS ITS WAY EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...A                   
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE            
LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE A              
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS             
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.                                                     
HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH BOTH HIGHS               
AND LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WEAK SFC HI HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION ERLY THIS MRNG. WEAK FLO                  
THRU THE BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION HAS                 
CONTRIBUTED TO IFR ST DECK ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA. ST HAS EXPANDED              
INTO KCVG/KLUK/KDAY TERMINALS WITH VSBYS CRASHING BELOW 1SM.                    
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG ST NOT LKLY TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL OVER                 
NEXT SVRL HOURS AS LO LVL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. EXPECT                 
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE CVG/DAY METRO AREAS FOR                 
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS ERLY LO LVL FLO BECOMES ESTABLISHED TOWARDS                  
DAYBREAK...MAY SEE SOME SUBTLE IMPROVEMENTS AT KDAY. SHALLOW MVFR               
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT REMAINING TERMINALS THRU DAWN.                   
INVERSION WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE MRNG WITH BNDRY LYR                 
MIXING REFOCUSING CU DVLPMNT NEAR 4KFT BY ERLY AFTN. HAVE A                     
FEELING MVFR HZ WILL LINGER AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY FOR GOOD PART OF THE              
MORNING BEFORE MORE EFFICIENT LO LVL MIXING CAN ESTABLISH. BKN CU               
FIELD WILL PERSIST ACRS FCST AREA THRU THE AFTN. CU WILL THEN                   
DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                                
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...AR                                                                   
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                          
SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                         
LONG TERM...JGL                                                                 
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1112 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE #3...                                                           
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE FOG ADVY SINCE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED.                    
A LINGERING DECK OF STRATUS SHOULD STICK AROUND IN THE FAR NE                   
FORECAST AREA (FA) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.             
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS UPPING HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE             
SW FA AS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE BROUGHT THEM INTO THE LOWER              
60S ALREADY.  EXPECT A NE TO SW TEMP GRADIENT TODAY WITH THE COOLER             
TEMPS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.                        
NEVERTHELESS IT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S              
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.                                                         
.MORNING UPDATE #2...                                                           
UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE DENSE FOG ADVY TILL 10 AM EDT.                 
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...                                                        
HAVE EXPENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES                 
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION. DENSE FOG            
MAY WELL PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE PRIOR TO DISSIPATING.              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
ONLY WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.               
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                    
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES              
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE                
LATCHED ON TO THE DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERS VISIBILITIES QUITE A BIT            
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY THE                   
BLUEGRASS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. MAY                
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD VISIBILITIES LOWER TO 1/2 MILE                
OVER A BROAD AREA.                                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE BLOCKY. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW             
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A UNSEASONABLY                
DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AS IS TYPICAL OF                  
CUTOFF LOWS...AREAS AROUND THE DISTURBANCE NOT AFFECTED BY                      
CLOUDINESS WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE MILD WEATHER. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR            
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW.                             
THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR EAST WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH A VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE                
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOSTLY CLEAR                 
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN                 
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                              
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE            
INROADS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE                
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT              
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF SLOWING FRONT DOWN AND               
PUSHING MAIN ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...INSTEAD OF BRINGING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND               
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE                
DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO             
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATING UPPER               
RIDGE AXIS MAY BE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO              
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND                 
ALSO. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND AFTER               
PERIOD AND MONITOR MODELS AND TRENDS AT A LATER TIME. PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BELOW.                          
THU THRU SUN...                                                                 
THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND HPC WITH ASSISTS               
FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.                                          
CONSENSUS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND HPC IS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE             
THRU OUR FA THU WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING AND MOVING THRU FRI NIGHT.             
UPR LEVEL TROF IN ARREARS OF FRONT TO APPROACH/MOVE THRU SAT. AT                
THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE POINTS AT LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE BEST              
CHC FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL                  
APPROACH/PASSAGE. IT IS THIS PERIOD...WHERE WE WILL INSERT HIGHEST              
CHC POPS. FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI AFTN...WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40% POPS AS             
WMFNT REACHES UPR OH VLY BY EARLY FRI WITH CDFNT ACRS MO AT THAT                
TIME...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING ON SLY FLO.                            
DEBATED ABOUT LEAVING SAT DRY PER OUR CURRENT FCST FAVORING THE                 
ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC/GFS ENSEMBLES WITH SMALL CHC                
POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR LEVEL                 
TROF. WILL END RAIN CHCS SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS HIGH                
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY.                    
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST...ABOVE LATE APR SEASONAL NORMS...ON THU AND              
FRI WITH WMFROPA AND PRECDFNT. COOLEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SAT AND SUN               
NIGHT (GENERALLY 40 TO 45) OWING TO COLD ADVECTION SAT NIGHT AND                
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO 1-5C.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE AT LEX THROUGH 12 TO 13Z. FOG AT SDF AND BWG            
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH VISIBILITES DROPPING ONLY TO 2 TO 3SM. AFTER             
FOG ERODES AFTER 13Z...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS                
THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY REFORM EARLY TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT BE                 
NEARLY AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING`S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATES......JSD/AML                                                            
SHORT TERM...JSD                                                                
LONG TERM....MACZKO/13                                                          
AVIATION.....JSD/AML                                                            
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
806 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.MORNING UPDATE #2...                                                           
UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE DENSE FOG ADVY TILL 10 AM EDT.                 
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...                                                        
HAVE EXPENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES                 
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION. DENSE FOG            
MAY WELL PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE PRIOR TO DISSIPATING.              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
ONLY WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.               
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                    
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES              
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE                
LATCHED ON TO THE DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERS VISIBILITIES QUITE A BIT            
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY THE                   
BLUEGRASS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. MAY                
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD VISIBILITIES LOWER TO 1/2 MILE                
OVER A BROAD AREA.                                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE BLOCKY. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW             
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A UNSEASONABLY                
DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AS IS TYPICAL OF                  
CUTOFF LOWS...AREAS AROUND THE DISTURBANCE NOT AFFECTED BY                      
CLOUDINESS WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE MILD WEATHER. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR            
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW.                             
THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR EAST WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH A VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE                
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOSTLY CLEAR                 
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN                 
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                              
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE            
INROADS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE                
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT              
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF SLOWING FRONT DOWN AND               
PUSHING MAIN ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...INSTEAD OF BRINGING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND               
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE                
DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO             
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATING UPPER               
RIDGE AXIS MAY BE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO              
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND                 
ALSO. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND AFTER               
PERIOD AND MONITOR MODELS AND TRENDS AT A LATER TIME. PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BELOW.                          
THU THRU SUN...                                                                 
THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND HPC WITH ASSISTS               
FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.                                          
CONSENSUS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND HPC IS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE             
THRU OUR FA THU WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING AND MOVING THRU FRI NIGHT.             
UPR LEVEL TROF IN ARREARS OF FRONT TO APPROACH/MOVE THRU SAT. AT                
THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE POINTS AT LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE BEST              
CHC FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL                  
APPROACH/PASSAGE. IT IS THIS PERIOD...WHERE WE WILL INSERT HIGHEST              
CHC POPS. FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI AFTN...WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40% POPS AS             
WMFNT REACHES UPR OH VLY BY EARLY FRI WITH CDFNT ACRS MO AT THAT                
TIME...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING ON SLY FLO.                            
DEBATED ABOUT LEAVING SAT DRY PER OUR CURRENT FCST FAVORING THE                 
ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC/GFS ENSEMBLES WITH SMALL CHC                
POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR LEVEL                 
TROF. WILL END RAIN CHCS SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS HIGH                
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY.                    
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST...ABOVE LATE APR SEASONAL NORMS...ON THU AND              
FRI WITH WMFROPA AND PRECDFNT. COOLEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SAT AND SUN               
NIGHT (GENERALLY 40 TO 45) OWING TO COLD ADVECTION SAT NIGHT AND                
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO 1-5C.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE AT LEX THROUGH 12 TO 13Z. FOG AT SDF AND BWG            
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH VISIBILITES DROPPING ONLY TO 2 TO 3SM. AFTER             
FOG ERODES AFTER 13Z...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS                
THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY REFORM EARLY TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT BE                 
NEARLY AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING`S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSD                                                                
LONG TERM....MACZKO/13                                                          
AVIATION.....JSD                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
630 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...                                                        
HAVE EXPENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES                 
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION. DENSE FOG            
MAY WELL PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE PRIOR TO DISSIPATING.              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
ONLY WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.               
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                    
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES              
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE                
LATCHED ON TO THE DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERS VISIBILITIES QUITE A BIT            
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY THE                   
BLUEGRASS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. MAY                
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD VISIBILITIES LOWER TO 1/2 MILE                
OVER A BROAD AREA.                                                              
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE BLOCKY. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW             
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A UNSEASONABLY                
DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AS IS TYPICAL OF                  
CUTOFF LOWS...AREAS AROUND THE DISTURBANCE NOT AFFECTED BY                      
CLOUDINESS WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE MILD WEATHER. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR            
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW.                             
THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR EAST WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER             
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON               
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH A VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE                
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOSTLY CLEAR                 
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN                 
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                              
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE            
INROADS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE                
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT              
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF SLOWING FRONT DOWN AND               
PUSHING MAIN ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...INSTEAD OF BRINGING IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND               
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE                
DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO             
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATING UPPER               
RIDGE AXIS MAY BE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO              
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND                 
ALSO. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND AFTER               
PERIOD AND MONITOR MODELS AND TRENDS AT A LATER TIME. PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BELOW.                          
THU THRU SUN...                                                                 
THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND HPC WITH ASSISTS               
FROM THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.                                          
CONSENSUS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND HPC IS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE             
THRU OUR FA THU WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING AND MOVING THRU FRI NIGHT.             
UPR LEVEL TROF IN ARREARS OF FRONT TO APPROACH/MOVE THRU SAT. AT                
THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE POINTS AT LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE BEST              
CHC FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL                  
APPROACH/PASSAGE. IT IS THIS PERIOD...WHERE WE WILL INSERT HIGHEST              
CHC POPS. FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI AFTN...WILL LEAVE 20 TO 40% POPS AS             
WMFNT REACHES UPR OH VLY BY EARLY FRI WITH CDFNT ACRS MO AT THAT                
TIME...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING ON SLY FLO.                            
DEBATED ABOUT LEAVING SAT DRY PER OUR CURRENT FCST FAVORING THE                 
ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC/GFS ENSEMBLES WITH SMALL CHC                
POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR LEVEL                 
TROF. WILL END RAIN CHCS SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN AS HIGH                
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE WESTERN OH VLY.                    
TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST...ABOVE LATE APR SEASONAL NORMS...ON THU AND              
FRI WITH WMFROPA AND PRECDFNT. COOLEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SAT AND SUN               
NIGHT (GENERALLY 40 TO 45) OWING TO COLD ADVECTION SAT NIGHT AND                
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO 1-5C.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE AT LEX THROUGH 12 TO 13Z. FOG AT SDF AND BWG            
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH VISIBILITES DROPPING ONLY TO 2 TO 3SM. AFTER             
FOG ERODES AFTER 13Z...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS                
THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY REFORM EARLY TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT BE                 
NEARLY AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING`S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSD                                                                
LONG TERM....MACZKO/13                                                          
AVIATION.....JSD                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
342 PM MDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.  THE FRONT                  
REMAINS BACKED UP ALONG THE SERN MTS AND IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAS              
OF FIRE ZONE 222 AND 225 WHERE I HAVE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY            
MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA.  HOWEVER ZONE 224...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY              
IS REACHING CRITERIA.  THE 18Z NAM12 IS STILL INDICATING THAT MAYBE             
AROUND 3 PM THE WINDS BECOME WRLY AND GUSTY AND DRYING THINGS                   
OUT...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ZONES 222 AND 225 WL REACH                
THE CRITICAL CRITERIA LATER.  HOWEVER THE RUC13 KEEPS THE FRONT AND             
E TO SE WINDS ALONG THE SERN MTS...BUT SOME OF ZONE 222 DOES SEE THE            
FRONT MOVE A LITTLE EWRD WITH WRLY WINDS.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WL              
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENTLY RED FLAG WARNING.  THE                    
GRADIENT OVR THE AREA WL DECREASE FOR TUE WITH NO SHRTWV TROFS                  
EXPECTED.  AS A RESULT THE WINDS OVR THE AREA WL GENERALLY BE                   
LIGHTER.  SERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO             
DRAW IN A LITTLE MSTR AND THUS RH VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER                 
TUE...THUS THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WL LESSEN.  THE ONLY AREA THAT               
MAY AGAIN SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON AND                
EARLY EVENING...IS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE                    
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WL BE BELOW 15                      
PERCENT...AND IT SHOULD BE A BIT BREEZY.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR              
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IS WHETHER THE WINDS WL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                 
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE            
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...SO WL GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT               
AREA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                  
...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FIRE                   
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST AREA...AND               
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...                                         
...CONTINUATION OF DRY...BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER            
RED FLAG DAY POSSIBLE...                                                        
LOTS OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORTER TERM (ESP WEDNESDAY)...SO FOCUS OF              
DISCUSSION WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  DRY LINE WILL BE BACKING            
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO SERLY LOW LVL                   
JET...WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE                 
BORDER TOWARDS 12Z. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 06Z.  THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS GOOD FOR FIRE            
WEATHER CONCERNS...HOWEVER BY AFTN/EVENING...NEXT SHORTWAVE/ASSOC               
UPPER LVL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT.  SFC             
DRY LINE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SE CO PLAINS DURING THE               
AFTN...WITH NAM12 RETREATING DRYLINE EASTWARD TO BETWEEN KLHX AND KLAA BY       
21Z. 12Z NAM12 SHOWED UP TO 1800 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG/EAST OF THE                 
DRY LINE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS.                     
THUS...CONCERN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR                   
SEVERE WEATHER WITH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELL                          
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND               
GUSTS. BUT COULDN`T RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO IF LOW LVL                      
HELICITIES BECOME ENHANCED ALONG THE DRY LINE.                                  
MEANWHILE OUT WEST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MIX OUT WHATEVER MEAGER LOW LVL        
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GUSTY                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREADING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS              
AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING. RH`S                 
DROP BELOW 15% WEST OF THE DRY LINE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50               
MPH POSSIBLE. VERY UNSTABLE AND DRY ALOFT...SO HAINES INDICES END               
UP AROUND 6. ALL THESE PARAMETERS LEAD TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR                  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR     
AND EXPLOSIVE RATES OF SPREAD POSSIBLE BELOW 8000 FEET WHERE FUELS ARE          
DRY. DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...HAVE ISSUED A               
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE DRY LINE FOR                     
WED...BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KLHX TO KIM.              
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE DRY LINE                 
WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW FAR WEST THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL                
WILL EXIST...AND HOW FAR EAST THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS              
WILL SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE                
TWO EXTREMES.                                                                   
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS DURING WED AFTERNOON...SO             
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.  EASTERN MTS LOOK TOO DRY AND             
HAVE REMOVED THE LOW GRADE POPS FOR THIS AREA.                                  
DRY LINE RETREATS BACK WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHORTWAVE             
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO KS BY             
EARLY THURS MORNING.  THIS SETS UP THE SCENARIO FOR MORE POTENTIAL              
REF FLAG CONDITIONS THURS...WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET                
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND VERY DRY LOW LAYERS.  HIGHEST THREAT AREA            
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST AREA. ASIDE FROM                  
SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THURS                         
AFTN/EVENING...REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL STAY DRY.                             
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THURS NIGHT SENDING A COLD FRONT               
THROUGH THE SE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING RELIEF TO THE FIRE                     
WEATHER ZONES ALONG/EAST OF THE SE MTS. MEANWHILE...SW FLOW ALOFT               
MAY KEEP THE SAN LUIS VALLEY NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ANOTHER                  
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND                
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE EAST FRI NIGHT INTO                 
SAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF                  
THIS SYSTEM...SO NOT QUITE READY TO BUY OFF ON IT YET. THE MORE                 
CONSISTENT ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE                  
GFS. THUS HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER                
OF THE EXTENDED. -KT                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS            
UNTIL AROUND 02Z...AND THEN THE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE.                
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
EVENING FOR COZ222-224>233.                                                     
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-225.                
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                       
EVENING FOR COZ224.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
28/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
419 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER WITH US FOR MOST OF             
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL                 
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS              
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.         
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE RE-DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND EXPANSION       
OF STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE 12Z            
NAM BUFKIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS HINT AT THIS RE-DEVELOPMENT         
MAINLY FROM 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE                     
95...WHILE NEITHER THE GFS OR THE RUC13 INDICATE THIS TREND.                    
OVERALL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND LIGHT EASTERLY               
FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION                   
TONIGHT... DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM AT THIS TIME.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                     
TUESDAY...MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS OR FOG PATCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO            
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE            
INTERIOR. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR                
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. 850 MILLIBAR                
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM +8 TO +9 CELSIUS. EXPECT HIGHS IN                  
THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST                            
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER THERE             
IS A CHANCE SOME STRATUS MAY REFORM UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AND             
LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM               
MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY BLOCKY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHEN THE PATTERN             
IS DOMINATED BY BLOCKING...THIS CAN EITHER MEAN BAD AND GOOD NEWS               
DEPENDING WHERE YOU ARE. IN THE CASE OF SNE THIS IS GOOD NEWS SINCE             
WE WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.                    
WEDNESDAY COULD CERTAINLY BE THE PICK OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL AID IN BRINGING TEMPS             
UP AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.              
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT. THIS COULD              
BRING A COUPLE OF BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THAT/S              
ABOUT IT.                                                                       
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS/GFS ENS FOR THURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.              
THIS MEANS A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP                    
PROBABLY HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER THE WEEKEND IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.                 
ONSHORE FLOW MAY MAKE IT A BIT COOL AT TIMES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF            
STRATUS/DRIZZLE BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
TONIGHT...VFR. HOWEVER IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM BOS-PVD-FMH-HYA-        
ACK. STRATUS EXPANDS FROM NE TO SW FROM 02Z TO 06Z. NOT HIGHLY                  
CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OR AREAL COVERAGE. THE 06Z TO 12Z                 
TIMEFRAME SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS IN THIS            
AREA.                                                                           
TUESDAY...VFR. EXCEPT VFR AFT 14Z SOME COASTAL TERMINALS.                       
TUE NIGHT...VFR. POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS AFT 06Z SOUTH COAST.          
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE            
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING DURING PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW.               
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY...5 FOOT EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN OUTER           
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THIS REGION THROUGH         
12Z TUE.                                                                        
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E SWELL SUBSIDES. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN         
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.                                                             
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                         
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SWLY SCA WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT              
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA             
CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS                
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRY PATTERN CONTINUES...AS MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN ANY                  
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST 10 DAYS. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE                 
HUMIDITY FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE                 
COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE THRESHOLDS FOR ANY FIRE             
WEATHER HEADLINES.                                                              
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                   
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN             
WHICH IS IN MINOR FLOOD. THE RIVER WILL RISE ONE HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT          
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND CREST LATE TUESDAY. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                              
A FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD.           
DESPITE THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...SNOWMELT OVER NORTHERN              
NEW ENGLAND AND TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO SUSTAIN              
MINOR FLOOD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                                
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND RIVER FORECASTS FOR MORE             
DETAILS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY         
     FOR ANZ254-255.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER                                                               
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS                                                             
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS                                                            
LONG TERM...EKSTER                                                              
AVIATION...EKSTER/STRAUSS                                                       
MARINE...EKSTER/STRAUSS                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
315 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.             
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW/VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE                     
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE               
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS WEEK...EJECTING PERIODIC                   
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FIRST SUCH FEATURE WAS                    
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL               
EJECT ACROSS COLORADO AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WHILE SIMILAR ON THE                
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KTS THIS EVENING IN THE               
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE SHORT             
RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THE 18Z RUC MAY BE                
THE CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS...SHOWING ABOUT                
2000J/KG OF ML CAPE ACROSS THIS AREA TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...THE CAP              
STRENGTH THOUGH WEAKENING TO ABOUT 50-75 J/KG...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH             
TO SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THAT SAID...CHANCES APPEAR TO             
BE RELATIVELY BETTER CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT...IN CONCERT WITH EJECTING              
UPPER TROF AND BETTER ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST              
NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM SHOWS ABOUT              
1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH WEAKENING CIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF                 
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING PREDAWN HOURS.            
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS IN THIS REGARD TO GOING POP FORECAST...AND WILL              
KEEP MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER                
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY GETS SHUNTED TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON                  
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROF. DESPITE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT                  
FORCING WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES                
WHICH WILL RESIDE JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY            
TO THE SOUTH. AS NEXT UPPER TROF DEEPENS A BIT ALONG THE PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST COAST THRU MID-WEEK...TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES OF VARYING                 
STRENGTH WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE FLUX AND RESULTANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO AT                
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH                  
INCREASING CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOISE IN THE MODELS THIS               
FAR OUT MAKE IT HARD TO PIN DOWN RELATIVE CHANCES ACROSS ANY GIVEN              
AREA...SO WILL SHOW UNIFORM MODEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.                 
A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS                 
ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIVING A MODERATE STRENGTH COLD                   
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS                 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING BEHIND FRONT               
BY LATER FRIDAY.                                                                
THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC AND LATEST INTER-OFFICE FORECAST CONSENSUS                
WAS TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE OUTER PERIODS THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWING A                 
MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY                  
WITH UPPER ENERGY MORE PHASED WITH LONGWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT                    
LAKES...INSTEAD OF THE GFS`S MORE CUTOFF UPPER LOW SCENARIO                     
ACROSS KANSAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL GO DRY FOR MONDAY                 
PER THE ECMWF.                                                                  
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND STORM              
CHANCES.                                                                        
A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MHK TO KICT.                  
RELATIVELY LOWER CLOUDS ARE SITUATED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING            
KCNU. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT              
SE KS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THEY ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE            
MVFR CIGS...AM EXPECTING THEM TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.             
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DECREASES GREATLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND              
INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME ADDITIONAL            
LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE               
AREA AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.                 
KCNU WILL HAVE THE BEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE                   
CONTINUING TO WORK NORTH INTO SE KS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS                    
OVERNIGHT OVER SE KS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.                      
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    56  72  57  78 /  20  10  10  30                                
HUTCHINSON      53  73  56  77 /  20  10  10  30                                
NEWTON          55  72  56  77 /  20  10  10  30                                
ELDORADO        57  71  57  77 /  30  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  73  59  78 /  30  20  20  30                                
RUSSELL         46  72  53  76 /  10  10  10  30                                
GREAT BEND      48  72  55  76 /  20  10  20  30                                
SALINA          50  73  54  77 /  20  10  10  30                                
MCPHERSON       52  73  56  77 /  20  10  10  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     61  75  59  79 /  40  20  20  30                                
CHANUTE         59  74  57  78 /  40  20  10  30                                
IOLA            59  73  56  78 /  40  10  10  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    60  75  58  79 /  40  20  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1244 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND STORM              
CHANCES.                                                                        
A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MHK TO KICT.                  
RELATIVELY LOWER CLOUDS ARE SITUATED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING            
KCNU. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT              
SE KS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THEY ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE            
MVFR CIGS...AM EXPECTING THEM TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.             
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DECREASES GREATLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND              
INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME ADDITIONAL            
LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE               
AREA AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.                 
KCNU WILL HAVE THE BEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE                   
CONTINUING TO WORK NORTH INTO SE KS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS                    
OVERNIGHT OVER SE KS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.                      
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO MAKE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS.                           
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM KMHK TO NEAR KICT WITH CLEARING            
AND DRY ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WEST OF THIS FRONT. EAST OF THE                  
BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOW 60S WITH EVEN                  
JUICIER AIR SOUTH OF THE OK BORDER. LAPS AND RUC DATA...ALONG WITH              
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATES THAT A STRONG CAP IS CURRENTLY IN             
PLACE EAST OF THE FRONT AND THIS LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST            
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL              
AFTER 4PM AND MORE LIKELY TOWARD SUNSET. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL             
BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD OVER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK/SOUTH                   
CENTRAL KS. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND                 
DEWPOINTS TO KEEP UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS.                                       
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KRSL AT THIS TIME...WITH FRONT EXPECTED               
TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THIS MORNING THROUGH KSLN/KHUT...WITH MIDDAY              
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KICT. FRONT NOT EXPECTED AT KCNU UNTIL LATE THIS             
EVENING. BASED ON IFR OBSERVATIONS AT KPTT AND K9K8...INCLUDED A                
TEMPORARY IFRU AT KHUT AS RELATIVE COOL MOIST AIR IMPINGES ON THE               
WARMER/MOIST AIR AT KHUT. APPEARS THAT QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT            
SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND                    
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT                     
TONIGHT. THIS PRECLUDED MENTIONING TS/VCTS AT KICT/KCNU...BUT                   
HAVE INCLUDED CB FOR KCNU. -HOWERTON                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY               
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE SAME TIME.                                          
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA            
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER            
OR NOT THESE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TO DESTABILIZE            
THE ATMOSPHERE AND GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE 21/00Z NAM HAS                   
INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) WITH MOISTURE...AND IT             
PROCEEDS TO KEEP THE STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A VERY STRONG CAP AT AROUND 750 TO                  
800MB...WHICH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO CLIMB INTO THE                 
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS                   
RESPECTIVELY TO BREAK. THEREFORE WE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT THEM FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS DURING              
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...HOWEVER               
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS.                                              
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS                         
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON                    
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH COMES FROM            
THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE              
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S...AND EVEN IN CENTRAL                 
KANSAS COULD CLIMB HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS                    
PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW.                                                       
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                              
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES              
BY OVER NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE A BREAK IN STORMY WEATHER BEFORE THE             
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY.              
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE                
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THURSDAY LOOKS            
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE              
WEEKEND. AT LEAST THAT`S THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.                            
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...06Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                       
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT WAS                    
ENTERING NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL APPROACH              
CENTRAL KS EARLY MON AM. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY                  
OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS MON/MON EVE. LEADING EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS             
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVE...AND PROGGED TO REACH                      
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AM. THIS SURGE OF GULF              
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS WHICH COULD LAST               
INTO MON PM AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.            
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN/HEATING WE GET MON PM...THERE IS A             
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD TS OR TWO ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS. GIVEN                     
INITIATION AND COVERAGE CONCERNS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF TS             
AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                               
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    76  53  74  54 /  10  20  10   0                                
HUTCHINSON      71  47  71  51 /  10  10  10   0                                
NEWTON          74  51  71  52 /  10  20  10   0                                
ELDORADO        77  55  74  52 /  10  30  10   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  74  55 /  10  30  10  10                                
RUSSELL         71  40  71  46 /   0  10  10   0                                
GREAT BEND      72  41  71  48 /   0  10  10   0                                
SALINA          66  43  72  49 /  10  10  10   0                                
MCPHERSON       69  47  71  49 /  10  20  10   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     81  60  76  57 /  10  40  30  10                                
CHANUTE         80  59  75  53 /  10  40  30  10                                
IOLA            79  58  75  52 /  10  40  30   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    80  60  76  56 /  10  40  30  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1130 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO MAKE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS.                           
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM KMHK TO NEAR KICT WITH CLEARING            
AND DRY ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WEST OF THIS FRONT. EAST OF THE                  
BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOW 60S WITH EVEN                  
JUICIER AIR SOUTH OF THE OK BORDER. LAPS AND RUC DATA...ALONG WITH              
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATES THAT A STRONG CAP IS CURRENTLY IN             
PLACE EAST OF THE FRONT AND THIS LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST            
THE NEXT 4 HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL              
AFTER 4PM AND MORE LIKELY TOWARD SUNSET. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL             
BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD OVER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK/SOUTH                   
CENTRAL KS. MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND                 
DEWPOINTS TO KEEP UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS.                                       
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KRSL AT THIS TIME...WITH FRONT EXPECTED               
TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THIS MORNING THROUGH KSLN/KHUT...WITH MIDDAY              
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KICT. FRONT NOT EXPECTED AT KCNU UNTIL LATE THIS             
EVENING. BASED ON IFR OBSERVATIONS AT KPTT AND K9K8...INCLUDED A                
TEMPORARY IFRU AT KHUT AS RELATIVE COOL MOIST AIR IMPINGES ON THE               
WARMER/MOIST AIR AT KHUT. APPEARS THAT QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT            
SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND                    
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT                     
TONIGHT. THIS PRECLUDED MENTIONING TS/VCTS AT KICT/KCNU...BUT                   
HAVE INCLUDED CB FOR KCNU. -HOWERTON                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY               
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE SAME TIME.                                          
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA            
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER            
OR NOT THESE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TO DESTABILIZE            
THE ATMOSPHERE AND GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE 21/00Z NAM HAS                   
INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) WITH MOISTURE...AND IT             
PROCEEDS TO KEEP THE STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A VERY STRONG CAP AT AROUND 750 TO                  
800MB...WHICH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO CLIMB INTO THE                 
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS                   
RESPECTIVELY TO BREAK. THEREFORE WE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT THEM FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS DURING              
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...HOWEVER               
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS.                                              
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS                         
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON                    
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH COMES FROM            
THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE              
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S...AND EVEN IN CENTRAL                 
KANSAS COULD CLIMB HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS                    
PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW.                                                       
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                              
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES              
BY OVER NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE A BREAK IN STORMY WEATHER BEFORE THE             
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY.              
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE                
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER              
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THURSDAY LOOKS            
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE              
WEEKEND. AT LEAST THAT`S THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.                            
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...06Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                       
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT WAS                    
ENTERING NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL APPROACH              
CENTRAL KS EARLY MON AM. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY                  
OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS MON/MON EVE. LEADING EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS             
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVE...AND PROGGED TO REACH                      
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AM. THIS SURGE OF GULF              
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS WHICH COULD LAST               
INTO MON PM AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION.            
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN/HEATING WE GET MON PM...THERE IS A             
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD TS OR TWO ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS. GIVEN                     
INITIATION AND COVERAGE CONCERNS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF TS             
AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                               
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    76  53  74  54 /  10  20  10   0                                
HUTCHINSON      71  47  71  51 /  10  10  10   0                                
NEWTON          74  51  71  52 /  10  20  10   0                                
ELDORADO        77  55  74  52 /  10  30  10   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  74  55 /  10  30  10  10                                
RUSSELL         71  40  71  46 /  10  10  10   0                                
GREAT BEND      72  41  71  48 /  10  10  10   0                                
SALINA          66  43  72  49 /  10  10  10   0                                
MCPHERSON       69  47  71  49 /  10  20  10   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     81  60  76  57 /  20  40  30  10                                
CHANUTE         80  59  75  53 /  20  40  30  10                                
IOLA            79  58  75  52 /  20  40  30   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    80  60  76  56 /  20  40  30  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
426 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO SW CANADA CONSISTING OF TWO UPPER               
LOWS...AND RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. AHEAD OF THE            
UPPER TROUGH...THERE IS A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS             
THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN             
MN INTO FAR NW ONTARIO...ALL BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM             
CENTRAL MN DOWN INTO NW MISSOURI. FOR THIS FORECAST...HOWEVER...                
THERE ARE TWO MAIN UPPER JETS TO NOTE OF...ONE 90-100 KT STREAK FROM            
SE WYOMING INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A MORE IMPRESSIVE 110 KT STREAK            
PUNCHING THROUGH SRN OREGON INTO NRN NEVADA. CWA REMAINS DRY WITH               
JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND...THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE               
UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY WITH A LOT OF SUN AND             
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C...AND HIGHS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE 60S TO               
LOW 70S AWAY FROM LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO TO NOTE              
IS A FOG/STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN MOVING NORTHWARD ON            
SSE WINDS. THIS DECK IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MID TO UPPER 40S F                   
DEWPOINTS CROSSING THE COLDER WATER OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO OUR SW...A             
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS HEADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NOTED            
BY PROFILER 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE               
MID TO UPPER 50S...AND MODEL PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1                
INCH.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...                                                
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SW CANADA IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP            
INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z WED. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...ONE SHRTWV               
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN UTAH IS INDICATED TO LIFT UP INTO NW WI BY 18Z            
TUE...HELPING TO PUSH THE CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE AREA EASTWARD. MUCH            
OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THIS                  
EVENING...THEREFORE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...AFTER                    
06Z...IT APPEARS SOME PCPN SHOULD EITHER START MOVING OR DEVELOPING             
INTO THE FAR WESTERN U.P. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. FIRST...THE               
UPPER JET MAX IN WRN SOUTH DAKOTA IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NRN MN AND            
NW ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING...BRINGING SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN              
FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. SECOND...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                
THAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN MN...AIDING IN               
THE PCPN THERE...IS INDICATED TO START MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS             
FRONTOGENESIS WILL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT TO            
HELP PRODUCE PCPN. THIRD...500MB PRESSURE FIELDS DO SUGGEST SOME                
MINOR HEIGHT FALLS MOVING IN. ON TUESDAY...PCPN WILL MAKE ITS WAY               
EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI. THE SAME FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT...THOUGH             
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FORCING WILL NOW COME FROM THE UPPER JET             
MOVING INTO NRN NEVADA...PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL WI BY 21Z TUE.                
HAVE MAINTAINED 70 POPS...THOUGH DEBATED GOING HIGHER. ALSO                     
MAINTAINED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7             
C/KM FEEDING INTO THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS OF PCPN             
GO...IT APPEARS A GENERAL 0.30 TO 0.50 INCH IS POSSIBLE. A FEW                  
MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS INDICATE POTENTIALLY MORE...WHICH WOULD NOT              
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 250                   
PERCENT OF NORMAL MOVING INTO THE CWA. HOPEFULLY ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS             
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN THE CURRENT ONGOING HYDROLOGY ISSUES.                
NEXT CONCERN IS FOG DECK ON LAKE MICHIGAN. 975-950MB WINDS STAY                 
MOSTLY SSE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...WHICH SHOULD BRING THE STRATUS AND               
FOG NORTHWARD INTO THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN AT SOME                 
POINT THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT MNM             
AND ESC. THIS FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF             
THE EASTERN U.P. OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW                 
AREAS. 975-900MB WINDS SHIFT MORE SW AND EVENTUALLY WEST LATE                   
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL MOVE THE FOG AND STRATUS EASTWARD. WILL NEED              
TO WATCH FOR ANY DENSE FOG WITH THIS DECK.                                      
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD THANKS TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...               
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOME BREEZE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE            
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AREAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE TRICKY WITH THE                      
FOG/STRATUS DECK OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE THERE.              
GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. HOURLY                
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY WITH THE FRONT AND PCPN MOVING THROUGH...AND              
TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST.                                      
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                      
AS FLOW ALF BCMS MORE NORMAL TO THE SFC FNT TUE EVNG...EXPECT COLD              
FNT TO ACCELERATE E. WL MAINTAIN GOING POPS TUE EVNG OVER THE ERN               
ZNS BUT THEN END ALL PCPN AFT MIDNGT AS HI PRES RDG/VERY DRY AIRMASS            
(PWAT 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH) INVADES THE WRN LKS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV              
LIFTING NEWD THRU ONTARIO. WITH APRCH OF SFC HI CENTER DURING THE               
NGT AND DIMINISHING WINDS...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE            
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF FOR MIN TEMPS. STEADIER NW FLOW OVER THE E             
WL LIMIT DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP.                                                  
WED LOOKS TO BE A DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY WITH HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS                
OVHD UNDER BLDG RDG DOWNSTREAM OF TROFFING IN THE ROCKIES. DEEP                 
MIXING TO H75-7 OR SO OF GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARND 70             
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AWAY FM LK MODERATION. OTRW...LGT WINDS WL             
ALLOW LK BREEZES TO DVLP...WITH COOLER TEMPS NR THE SHORES. WITH                
DEEP MIXING...EXPECT DWPTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE TEENS/20S IN THE                 
AFTN...WITH RH OVER THE INTERIOR DROPPING AOB 20 PCT. DRY AIR WL AID            
THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP ON WED NGT DESPITE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS. BUT            
INCRSG SSE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL MITIGATE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP OVER THE             
FAR W FM IWD TO ONT.                                                            
IN THE MID TERM...UPR RDGING/MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE ON              
THU...AND 06Z-12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF KEEP NEXT COLD FNT/BULK OF DEEPER               
MSTR IN WARM CONVEYOR BELT E OF TROFFING IN THE NRN ROCKIES W OF IWD            
THRU 00Z FRI. SO WL RESTRICT CHC POPS TO THE FAR WRN ZNS/WRN LK SUP             
IN THE AFTN WITH HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN FAVORING THE SLOWER EWD                   
PROGRESSION AND MAINTENANCE OF MID LVL DRY AIR/CAPPING. LOOKS LIKE              
SOME SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HI CLD TO THE E. WITH SLY FLOW BTWN                   
DEPARTING HI AND INCOMING COLD FNT AS WELL FCST H85 TEMPS IN THE                
10C-12C RANGE... EXPECT HI TEMPS TO APRCH 70 AWAY FROM THE                      
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...WHERE GFS FCST SDNGS HINT THAT SOME             
ST/SC MAY ROLL IN OFF LK MI.                                                    
ON THU NGT/FRI/FRI NGT...PROGRESSED CHC POPS W-E ACRS THE FA ON THU             
NGT. THE 00Z ECMWF...FVRD BY NCEP...IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EWD                
PROGRESSION OF THE FNT AS ITS UPR FLOW IS MORE MERIDIONAL THAN SHOWN            
BY THE GFS. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD A HIER                   
AMPLITUDE PATTERN AS WELL. SO SLOWED DOWN DEPARTURE OF HIER POPS ON             
FRI/FRI NGT. ALTHOUGH THE EXPLICIT ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW HVY PCPN...              
THE NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE H5 FLOW WITH THE SFC FNT FCST            
AT 00Z SAT OVER THE ERN CWA RAISES THE SPECTER OF HVY RA WITH H85               
DWPTS UP TO 10C. SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD EXACERBATE HI RIVER LVLS.                
INTRODUCED A CHC OF SHSN AS WELL OVER THE W HALF LATE AT NGT WITH               
ECMWF SHOWING H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -10C.                                    
WITH A DEEPENING UPR TROF ACRS THE UPR LKS OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT            
TEMPS TO FALL BLO NORMAL AND TOWARD THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE.             
THE DEEPER 00Z CNDN MODEL SHOWS A NEARLY H5 LO CUTOFF OVER THE GRT              
LKS ON SAT. VARIOUS RECENT MODELS HAVE FCST THIS OCCURRENCE...BUT WL            
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER 00Z ECMWF RIGHT NOW PER NCEP GUIDANCE. LO CHC            
POPS FOR MIXED RA/SN SEEM APPROPRIATE AS IN GOING FCST WITH THERMAL             
TROF OVHD. DAYTIME HTG/DESTABILIZATION WL ACCENTUATE THE PCPN CHCS              
IN THE MOIST...CHILLY NNW FLOW. AFT A BRIEF TIME OF QUIET WX SAT NGT            
WITH RDG AXIS IN CONTROL/LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG AND CHILLY MIN TEMPS AT            
THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE...FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV/SFC             
LO FCST BY NCEP FVRD 00Z ECMWF MODEL. HAVE SPREAD POPS FOR SHRA W-E             
ACRS THE FA ON SUN WITH THE APRCH OF THIS SYS. FCST THE RA TO MIX               
WITH SN WITH CYC NNE FLOW AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO FALL AS LO AS -6C               
BEFORE THE PCPN MOVES TO THE E ON MON AND ENDS THE PCPN.                        
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ACROSS THE U.P. CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO             
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY A                    
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE REMAINING SNOW COVER SHOULD GO. ONE                   
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE CHOCOLAY RIVER WHERE THE MOST RECENT                    
FORECAST SHOWS A RECEDING TREND IN THE RIVER STAGE. LATEST                      
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CURRENT STAGE IS AROUND 9 FEET. THERE IS SOME             
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH SNOW IS LEFT TO MELT WITHIN THAT BASIN. A                  
LITTLE CONCERNED THE RIVER MAY RISE A BIT TODAY WITH WHATEVER                   
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION THERE IS...SO OPTED TO LEAVE FLOOD ADVISORY UP            
TILL ITS CLEAR THE RIVER IS RECEDING. OVERNIGHT THE TRAP ROCK RIVER             
WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. EVEN THOUGH ITS CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD                   
STAGE...8.5 FEET...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FLOOD WARNING AS                       
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN THAT BASIN WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO RISE TO              
FLOOD STAGE AGAIN SOMETIME TONIGHT. CHASSELL STAFF GAUGE STILL                  
READING AROUND 10.6...SEE NO REASON THIS WILL CHANGE ANYTIME SOON.              
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR               
WITCH LAKE AND REPUBLIC...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON...AND THE              
MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER NEAR HUMBOLDT ARE THE RIVERS TO             
WATCH. THINK THE MICHIGAMME AND STURGEON NEAR ALSTON HAVE THE BEST              
OPPORTUNITY OF THE THREE TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT HUMBOLDT LATEST            
RFC GUIDANCE INDICATES A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THE MORNING OF              
THE 23RD.                                                                       
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS... PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                    
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
OVERALL DRY AIR ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS              
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONCERN                
EXISTS FOR SAW DEVELOPING BOTH FOG AND STRATUS. THIS IS DUE TO SSE              
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE BRINGING UP THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS DECK              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON              
HOW SE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY IS...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING             
MORE SOUTH TO SW. THEREFORE HAVE NOT WENT TOO PESSIMISTIC YET.                  
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.              
IF THE DECK DOES MOVE IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIFR CIG               
AND VIS. KEPT IN SOME LLWS AT SAW AS WELL AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES             
ACROSS (THOUGH THE LLWS IS MARGINAL AT BEST). CMX WILL REMAIN VFR               
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION DOWNSLOPES OFF THE HURON                
MOUNTAINS. ON TUE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS                  
CURRENTLY IN FAR WESTERN MN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CMX IN THE                 
MORNING...BRINGING VIS AND CIGS DOWN TO MVFR. THEY MIGHT EVEN DROP              
TO IFR...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING IS AT 18Z.               
PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 18Z AT SAW.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS OF 25 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THU ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS A COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...AND ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT WHEN LOW                  
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO. SE                
GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY THURSDAY                  
EVENING. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER              
LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NE ONTARIO BY            
SATURDAY MORNING. NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LOW             
BEFORE WINDS RELAX SOME LATE SATURDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL                   
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN                          
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ/KC                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
339 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT                
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF PCPN WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC                  
ANALYSES SHOW A FAIRLY CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE                  
CONUS AT THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW COULD BE SEEN SPINNING ALONG THE               
CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SHARP RIDGE SEPARATING THIS FROM THE BROAD              
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. A                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THROUGH NORTH              
DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA...HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SHRA AND TSRA TO              
OUR WEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH                     
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AT THIS TIME...WITH                       
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY POST FRONTAL IN NATURE GIVEN LIMITED BOUNDARY               
LAYER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS                
AVAILABLE...PER ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND WITH                
FRONT RELATIVE FLOW PROVIDING UPGLIDE OVER THE COLD FRONTAL                     
SURFACE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY TRUDGES EASTWARD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A                
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE IN THE HANDLING OF TODAY/S                    
SYSTEM...THEN WENT CLOSER TO A GFS/SREF BLEND FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM               
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.        
AS MENTIONED...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME POST-FRONTAL                      
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONT RELATIVE FLOW                  
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE ZONE                  
WHERE SATURATION WILL CORRESPOND WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY.                     
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND                 
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE IT WANES A BIT THIS EVENING...BOTH THE NAM               
AND GFS SUGGEST IT WILL REINVIGORATE SOME LATER THIS EVENING OVER               
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY                  
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FIGURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                
QUITE SLOWLY...SO KEPT SOME CHANCE OF SHRA AROUND INTO THE MORNING              
HOURS...WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER FARTHER EAST. SUFFICIENT RIDGING              
AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO                
BRING THINGS TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER                
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                          
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND              
THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW...JUST OFF THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EASTWARD OVER                
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE MEAN TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO                 
PUSH EAST WITH IT AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST.              
RETURN FLOW SHOULD SPREAD MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY               
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP                
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE 850              
MB THETA-E RIDGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL AND FORCING ALONG THE               
925-850MB FRONT SHOULD HELP SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE SHOULD                     
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF                 
THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLIDE THROUGH              
THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WHERE                 
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE                     
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE JUST TO OUR NORTH AS WE GET INTO THE                
WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF THIS OCCURS THEN WE MAY HAVE              
TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH MLCAPE VALUES               
PROGGED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE                
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD                   
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH              
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT TO EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER              
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGH                  
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                    
DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME THE MEDIUM RANGE                    
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY WITH                
REGARD TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE 06Z GFS IS                    
MARKEDLY DIFFERENT FROM ITS 00Z COUNTERPART...LIKELY UNDERSCORING               
THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THINGS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE LATTER              
HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND CANADIAN            
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO LONG WAVE FEATURES...SO             
WILL TRY TO LEVERAGE THAT INFORMATION...AND TREND MORE TOWARD A                 
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS...WHICH                
MATCH UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE HPC MANUAL PROGS FOR THE PERIOD.              
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CONVOLUTED AND                   
COMPLEX...AS CAN OFTEN BE EXPECTED DURING SPRING...AND GIVEN THE                
PROPENSITY FOR CUTOFF UPPER LOWS FROM THE EASTPAC ACROSS TO THE                 
NORTH ATLANTIC...BOTH IN THE GUIDANCE AND IN REALITY...THE SOMEWHAT             
LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE. SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH             
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER             
WITH SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO. THIS MATCHES THE GOING FORECAST               
FAIRLY WELL...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAJOR CHANGES. THE ECMWF MAY BE A            
BIT TOO COOL WITH ITS POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY SHADE                 
TEMPERATURES A SLIGHT BIT IN THAT DIRECTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THINGS.              
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT IT             
LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH ANY                 
CHANCES FOR PCPN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.                
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN CANADA               
UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHRA TO COVER               
THINGS...AS IT APPEARS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN                     
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE SOUTH TO LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF              
THE FORECAST. IN FACT...NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THE ECMWF WOULD                
ACTUALLY BE MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA              
SUNDAY...BUT WILL ALSO LEAVE THAT POSSIBILITY OUT AT THIS POINT.                
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE            
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA              
SLIDES A BIT TO THE EAST. WILL END CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY EVENING              
AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
COLD FRONT NEAR AN KAXN TO KRWF LINE ATTM. FRONT IS PROGRESSING                 
SLOWLY EAST AND EXPECTED TO PASS KSTC BY 21Z AND KMSP BY 01Z.                   
FRONTAL TIMING FOR KRNH AND KEAU A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS A WAVE                
RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. USED 03Z FOR PASSAGE AT KRNH AND               
08Z FOR KEAU. ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED                      
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. CEILINGS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 1000                  
FEET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION.              
EXTENSIVE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT FOR THE WI                
TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH              
OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT SETS IN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/RAH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
455 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
21Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC FRONT HAS MOVED TO A MARYVILLE TO                
TOPEKA LINE...WITH SOME INCREASED FORWARD ACCELERATION NOTED...AS               
FORECAST BY THE 18Z NAM-WRF. MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES MODEST SFC             
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE GREATEST MAGNITUDE            
NEAR THE FRONTAL SEGMENT NEAR EMPORIA...WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS                 
INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...700 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS                
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WITH +8C BUBBLE COVERING MUCH OF THE WARM               
SECTOR ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE            
DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. PREFRONTAL MLCAPES ANALYZED BETWEEN               
500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN REMAINING DUE TO THE                
WARM NOSE.                                                                      
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                     
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND STORM MODE. PRIMARILY FOCUSING              
ON TWO MAIN AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR STORM FORMATION 1)              
COINCIDING WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER CNTRL                  
KANSAS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE WARM LAYER WHERE SOME WEAK MIDLEVEL            
CAA SHOULD LEAD TO MORE MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AN BEHIND THE            
SFC FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 850 MB FRONT...AND 2) OVER FAR            
NWRN MISSOURI AND ERN NEBRASKA/SWRN IOWA ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE            
MIDLEVEL CAPPING IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT               
WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. OVERALL DYNAMIC FORCING STILL LOOKS TO            
BE QUITE WEAK WITH ONLY NOTABLE MIDLEVEL WAVE ONLY NOW MAKING IT                
INTO SRN COLORADO. FEEL THE LATEST 18Z GFS MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE             
ON THE POST SFC FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT RATHER                
THAN THE NAM-WRF WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO ROBUST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS.              
STILL CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AFTER DARK AS               
SUGGESTED BY RUC FORECAST...AND EVEN HINTED AT BY GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS            
CLOSER TO CNTRL MISSOURI.                                                       
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/332 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008/                                                    
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI              
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STRATUS. BRIEF MESO LOW WAS               
EVIDENT VIA VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WEAK REFLECTION IN THE SFC               
OBSERVATIONS JUST EAST OF SALINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.              
THIS FEATURE HAS SINCE BECOME STRETCHED AND ELONGATED AS SFC FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY HAS CREPT INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CU FIELD ENHANCING THIS           
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN               
KANSAS.                                                                         
CURRENTLY BECOMING PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO WHETHER SFC BASED                  
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS STOUT CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS                  
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.                 
NEVERTHELESS IF A STORM CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CAP AND DEVELOP WITHIN            
PREFERENTIAL ENVIRONMENT...MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG               
SHOULD BE EDGING INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF           
THE SOUTHEASTERLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO                    
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR                       
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS STRUGGLING              
TO REACH 30KTS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.                     
THEREFORE...WOULD LIKELY SEE A MIX OF PULSE TO MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT            
WITH PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN THE MIX. MORE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT             
SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...MORE                 
FOCUSED ALONG H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE INITIATION CAN FOCUS ABOVE              
THE INVERSION. THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG              
TO SEVERE AS ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL INCREASE OVERALL                
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING HELPING TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.             
IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 8.5               
C/KM WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE              
LARGE HAIL. ALSO...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING DCAPE AOA 1000             
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL             
WITH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF             
MID LEVEL DRY AIR ABLE TO EVAPORATIVELY COOL ANY PRECIP.                        
SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY STILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY               
TOMORROW MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA            
BY THEN. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF           
REPRIEVE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRONT DOESN`T LOOK TO MAKE IT VERY             
FAR SOUTH BEFORE STALLING BY TOMORROW NIGHT....MOST LIKELY ACROSS               
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS PRESSURE FALLS PROMOTE EASTERLY LLVL FLOW TO               
TAKE SHAPE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA            
BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO                 
AFFECT THE AREA. FINE TUNED POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY FOCUSING MORE              
TOWARDS THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS...MORE ALIGNED WITH STRONGER UPPER               
LEVEL SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR             
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.                                                       
DEROCHE                                                                         
MEDIUM RANGE...                                                                 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.            
ECMWF/GFS SEND A SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE               
DAY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW              
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY                      
FRIDAY...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. DUE TO PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN                  
CONSISTENCY IN THE LAST DAY OR SO...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE                
MORE FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AIRMASS WILL BE                 
FAIRLY JUICY SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.                            
WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.             
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...AS               
FAVORED MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS AT              
THAT TIME. WITH FRONTS WOBBLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION                
THROUGHOUT THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME...WILL STICK WITH              
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                              
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD NOW IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE               
TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD HANG ON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.                   
SOUTHEASTERLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI           
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY LATER             
THIS EVENING. SOME QUESTION AS HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LAST NEAR THE               
TERMINAL SITES AND WILL FINE TUNE AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING           
SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH            
LATER TONIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY                      
DIRECTION.                                                                      
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
225 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT                  
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.                  
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA                    
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BACK INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS                 
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO EASTERN KANSAS                
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI. 12Z             
SGF SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION                
FROM AROUND 800MB TO 770MB...SO CONVECTION HAS YET TO BEGIN.                    
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THIS CAPPING                       
INVERSION BREAKING THIS EVENING.                                                
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS              
EVENING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS KEEPS                
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z. DO                     
BELIEVE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WE SHOULD SEE THIS CAP WEAKENING                
OUT WEST. THAT AND THE GFS SHOWS A 25-30KT 925MB JET SETTING UP                 
THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR LIFT. BY 06Z...CAP ON THE RUC                
SOUNDING DEFINITELY WASHED OUT AND CONVECTION SHOULD REALLY GET                 
GOING. SB CAPES OUT WEST AT AROUND 2200 J/KG AND SOUNDING SHOWING A             
VERY FAVORABLE SOUNDING FOR LARGE HAIL. 0-3KM HELICITIES RIGHT                  
AROUND 200M2/S2...SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT CHANCE OF ISOLATED                     
TORNADOES IN THIS AFTERNOONS HWO. CAP IS A LITTLE STRONGER EAST                 
NEAR SPRINGFIELD AND THREAT FOR THIS AREA SHOULD BE MORE IN LINE                
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO                    
CLOSELY MONITOR EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND HAZARDS MAY NEED TO              
BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST.                                                       
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY MORNING. BY 18Z...SURFACE LOW              
FORECAST ON GFS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH                    
TRAILING COLD FRONT RIGHT ALONG OSAGE BEACH TO SPRINGFIELD TO                   
JOPLIN LINE AT THAT TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GFS FORECAST                 
CAPES OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI RIGHT AROUND 1500                
J/KG...SO COMMUNITIES GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44                      
CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SHEAR NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR A TORNADIC                      
THREAT...AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE               
MAIN THREATS. FRONT CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY                
EVENING...WITH FRONT HANGING UP OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL                  
RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH EASTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY...DO                   
BELIEVE CWA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.                                               
CLAYCOMB                                                                        
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS                   
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. QUITE A FEW DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN               
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GENERALLY                     
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE. MAIN COMMON FEATURES EARLY                 
ARE A TROUGH OVER WESTERN NOAM...BUT MAIN DIFFERENCES CONCERN HOW               
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE HANDLED. A LEAD SHORTWAVE                   
FEATURED BY THE ECMWF MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH KS/MO EARLY THU                   
MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN/STRONGER WESTERN SHORTWAVE AND COLD                
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FRI AND MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KS/MO               
LATE FRI NIGHT EARLY SAT MORNING. THE THU/FRI TIME PERIOD WOULD                 
SEEM TO BE THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN/TSTMS.                             
BIG/HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DEVELOP WITH PLACEMENT OF A                  
NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND               
WEST WITH PLACEMENT VERSUS THE ECMWF...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000            
MILES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS PLACES A CLOSED LOW OVER KS/OK BY            
00Z TUE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO. THIS IS            
WHERE I PUNTED AND FOLLOWED FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY.                 
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                       
DSA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT AT              
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS                  
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS                     
EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES                
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. DID NOT HIT THE LOWER CEILINGS TOO                
HARD...WITH ONLY MVFR CEILINGS IN LATER PERIODS TONIGHT WITH                    
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL NEED               
TO BE WATCHED.                                                                  
DSA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo