FXUS04 KWBC 220631
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
231 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 22/1200 UTC THRU OCT 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
DAY 1...

SRN PLAINS...MID TO UPR MS VALLEY...UPR LAKES....NRN PLAINS...

A WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY PCPN EVENT ON TAP FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION DAY 1.  ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE STRONG UPR LOW...PRESENTLY OVR THE SW...EJECTING NEWD INTO
THE CNTRL TO SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND THEN INTO THE MID TO UPR
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.  THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH
RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM..BEING STRONGER THAN
THE ETA...ECMWF...UKMET AND CMC.    ATTM...WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD
THE MAJORITY SOLNS...CLOSER TO THE ETA.   NOT A GREAT AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE PCPN BREAKOUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROF.  HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
TODAY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPR TROF...HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MDT TO HVY PCPN WL BE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE TROF.   THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE CONVECTION PROBLEMS
OVER NRN MO...SERN IA AND NWRN IL...WITH THESE HEAVIER AMTS
IGNORED .  THE MANUAL DAY 1 PROG IS DEPICTING A BROAD .50-1" AREAL
AVG AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 1-1.5"+
AMTS AHEAD OF THE HT FALLS.

CNTRL ROCKIES...

WHILE THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR PCPN WL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURG DAY 1...LIGHT TO MDT PCPN AMTS STILL LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE NEWD EJECTING UPR
CNTR.   STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT .25-.50"+ AMTS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL TO WRN
CO. 

NWRN U.S...

THE NEXT SET OF NERN PAC HT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD
ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY AND INLAND WRN CAN AND THE PAC NW
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.   ONSHORE SWLY TO WLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NW DAY 1.  HEAVIEST PCPN EXPECTED WITH
THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SINKING SEWD THRU THE NWRN U.S.  THE ETA
AND GFS ARE IN AGRMNT IN SHOWING THE SRN PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL BAND MOVG SLOWER THAN THE NRN PORTION.  THIS SHOULD
HELP TO ACCENTUATE PCPN AMTS INVOF SWRN OR INTO NWRN CA.  HERE
AREAL AVG 1-2"+ AMTS ARE POSSIBLE.  ELSEWHERE THRU THE NWRN
U.S...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD
KEEP AMTS LIGHTER.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 
24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 558853 557842 553839 549835 544834 536832 530833 527833 
      515833 505835 493836 484838 435850 424853 416855 405859 
      396864 385869 380873 375876 360888 351896 346902 334918 
      329928 295981 280024 281056 297081 302081 307079 313072 
      323055 329048 337041 344036 349029 361013 365005 370995 
      373990 377987 388987 393986 395987 399991 401998 401013 
      403026 403033 400038 394050 386056 379056 372055 366055 
      360055 355057 350057 339061 334061 330065 326071 322082 
      321085 323089 328098 333106 341112 344114 348115 349114 
      349109 346104 343099 342094 344089 347084 350081 355081 
      362081 367082 369087 372093 377100 381103 383108 383112 
      377115 369119 365125 370132 375136 382136 386134 389131 
      396125 404120 415123 417125 418128 421134 422138 421142 
      415153 408163 406167 404176 402185 403196 406205 405207 
      402206 398204 393202 388203 387206 388209 391213 388215 
      384217 381222 379229 379237 380242 384253 386258 389262 
      393265 398265 403266 407269 413273 418273 427271 437267 
      445266 454267 465269 471271 478274 481276 486282 490288 
      496292 500296 506294 510290 513284 519272 521263 523254 
      524245 526238 531224 535220 536216 538205 539196 539186 
      536176 534171 531165 526157 517148 508142 491130 483124 
      473120 467120 463117 461113 461103 461098 459093 455090 
      450088 449086 450082 456072 462060 467051 473039 479030 
      484023 499005 505996 512985 518974 523963 529953 532943 
      539907 543895 548884 552875 555866 558853 
 0.01 424696 420690 416690 412693 408696 406700 407708 409719 
      411727 415736 417737 422736 428729 430723 429717 428711 
      424700 424696 
 0.01 429788 429779 427776 424775 419775 413777 403780 392780 
      383783 374790 368794 362796 356799 351803 348806 345811 
      343822 344829 347834 353833 355830 376818 379818 383825 
      389836 393835 396830 398825 398820 400814 406811 419806 
      424802 428797 429788 
 0.01 363748 364744 361742 360742 358742 355744 352744 349745 
      347747 344749 343752 343753 343755 343759 344762 345765 
      348766 350765 353764 355762 358760 359758 360757 361753 
      362753 363749 363748 
 0.01 316804 313798 306795 295793 290792 282792 270793 264793 
      258796 255801 255806 256810 261816 264819 271823 277824 
      283824 289824 297821 303820 306820 310818 314812 316804 
 0.25 535879 534870 531864 527860 524859 504857 495855 483855 
      480854 474854 464855 454857 443861 430866 422870 397881 
      386886 378889 369896 362903 349917 318957 299995 294023 
      294035 297053 305056 329035 346014 376980 404959 418948 
      424949 426966 423991 424008 425024 428037 426051 425075 
      437072 461044 466035 473025 478016 486991 491982 498972 
      506961 512950 518939 522929 525914 530903 533896 534889 
      535879 
 0.25 532205 533198 532191 529184 523175 517161 510156 493138 
      482130 475130 468138 453141 452147 445146 439141 436143 
      434148 432157 427164 425171 422182 421201 421212 420218 
      416217 414215 410214 403215 402219 403224 401228 397228 
      388227 386229 387234 391247 394252 399254 404256 418259 
      433259 445256 459253 467252 473253 482255 486257 489261 
      493267 496274 498279 501280 504280 506277 505268 513266 
      514264 515257 514247 511240 508231 500214 496208 494206 
      489203 485202 480202 474204 462209 457210 453206 454197 
      463186 468179 474179 481182 488186 494190 503195 509198 
      516203 525210 530209 532205 
 0.25 485232 483227 480226 482231 482232 485232 
 0.25 403072 400070 395070 387071 381068 375064 371062 367063 
      367068 371075 374083 378089 383093 390090 395083 398078 
      403072 
 0.50 501950 519910 518891 509876 495866 468862 436871 428874 
      412882 398888 390893 385898 373909 363917 352926 346930 
      341935 331948 324959 317970 310982 304996 302004 302011 
      306014 312012 324005 349989 397956 406946 413941 419938 
      429936 437931 440929 442930 444935 444941 439959 437967 
      437977 446994 448005 447017 450029 454033 461029 465013 
      471993 476981 482975 494960 501950 
 0.50 521192 520187 519182 518180 515178 513176 512175 510174 
      507173 505174 504176 503178 503179 506183 509186 511189 
      514191 517194 520194 521192 
 0.50 510255 509251 509250 508245 508243 506239 505238 503235 
      500237 502241 502243 504247 505248 506252 508254 509256 
      510255 
 0.50 492216 491215 488212 485211 482211 479211 477212 476212 
      473215 475217 478218 481219 484220 487220 489220 490219 
      492216 
 0.50 478243 480240 479235 477233 469233 463230 465225 467221 
      466217 448213 447209 447203 451196 458188 463180 465171 
      468169 475165 477164 476159 475156 469148 463147 460148 
      452151 447151 444150 439147 437150 437159 437164 440173 
      439177 436183 434187 434194 435207 429211 425215 423220 
      420224 416226 414221 412218 409218 406221 405230 403232 
      400231 397230 393232 392240 396249 400251 405252 414255 
      424257 433256 437255 441253 456247 462246 470245 478243 
 0.50 372069 376077 378079 380076 377069 375068 372067 372069 
 1.00 501926 498917 494917 490918 482922 476926 470931 465936 
      463940 462945 462952 465957 471958 479955 485951 490946 
      495939 500931 501926 
 1.00 455240 450236 447235 443233 443231 444226 445224 445221 
      438220 433220 430222 427224 425230 418232 411229 408234 
      405235 402235 398240 399245 401247 411250 418252 425253 
      431252 436250 445245 450241 455240 
 1.00 372944 404932 418926 414915 409909 403910 393915 366940 
      362944 364947 372944 
 1.00 372957 371956 368956 366957 363959 360961 356960 352969 
      355971 361970 367966 370962 370961 371958 372957 
 1.00 331965 346950 352941 349936 341943 335951 330961 329963 
      328965 329966 331965 
 1.00 322989 323986 320984 318986 317986 315989 315990 313993 
      313996 312997 313998 316997 317996 318995 320993 321991 
      322989 
 1.50 440243 439240 437238 436238 431237 425236 419234 414233 
      410234 407237 402239 403244 408247 414248 420250 425251 
      428250 433249 437246 440243 
 2.00 433245 433244 430240 428238 425237 422236 419235 416234 
      413234 413235 410236 409237 407240 406240 406241 409244 
      412245 414246 417247 420248 423249 426249 429248 432245 
      433245 
 3.00 425242 424242 421240 419239 416240 418243 421243 424243 
      425242  
 
$$