AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
1211 PM MDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO REMOVE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. SYSTEM                   
SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...ALLOWING SNOW TO DIMINISH IN                  
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT CONTINUE ACROSS                
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE              
MOST PART THE EVENT IS OVER. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR               
ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED TO REMOVE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS. WARNING FOR THE                  
SANGRES AND WETS...AND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN                                
FOOTHILLS...CONTINUES UNTIL NOON. SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE                   
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
.HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY OVER S MTNS THIS MORNING...                                 
CURRENTLY...UPPER 500 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNER REGION AT            
3 AM THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION              
WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS ALONG THE S MTNS EXTENDING NE ACROSS EC CO              
INTO NW KS. TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN AT OR JUST ABOVE                  
FREEZING...AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MAINLY                  
ACCUMULATED OVER GRASSY AREAS.                                                  
TODAY...I AM A BIT HESITANT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGHLIGHTS.                    
ALTHOUGH S EL PASO WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH MORE SNOW...THE PALMER              
DIVIDE/NE FACING ASPECT OF TELLER COUNTY MAY GET A COUPLE MORE                  
INCHES IN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PRIMARY REASON WHY I WISH NOT TO             
CHANGE ANY HILITES FOR NOW IS THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO OUR WEST. IF            
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE AND SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE PIKES             
PEAK REGION...I WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORIES AT 6 AM FOR THE C MTN                
REGION AND PIKES PEAK REGION. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT MAKE THIS                    
DECISION UNTIL AFTER THE 4 AM PACKAGE GOES OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...ALL             
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA AND WILL             
KEEP THE WARNINGS GOING UNTIL THE EXPIRATION OF 12 NOON. SEVERAL                
MORE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THIS REGION.                   
REGARDING THE GUIDANCE...RUC AND ANM TRACK UPPER E ACROSS N NM THIS             
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY PRECIP             
TO CONTINUE OVER THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION AS 20-30KT 700 MB             
NE WINDS CONTINUE.                                                              
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT            
AS TEMPS ARE GOING TO GET INTO THE MID 20S MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS             
WITH L30S OVER FAR E CO. OFFICE POLICY IS TO ISSUE NPW COLD WX                  
PRODUCTS AFTER 15 APRIL. IN ADDITION...MANY PEOPLE HAVE TURNED ON               
THERE SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...AND WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE             
L/M20S...THIS COULD LEAD TO MANY BUSTED PLASTIC SPRINKLER HEADS. I              
WILL EMPHASIZE THIS THREAT IN THE NPW PRODUCT. /34                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
.MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...                 
ON FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING              
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD SEE                    
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGHS.                 
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THINGS REALLY HEAT UP AN DRY OUT AGAIN.                
COULD SEE A RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY            
AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.  DRY SOUTHWEST WILL OVERSPREAD                  
SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.  THE                     
COMBINATION OF DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE            
GOOD MIXING...ALLOWING TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE            
SURFACE.  SO...WE`LL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY               
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.  PENDING HOW QUICKLY FINE FUELS DRY OUT               
FOLLOWING TODAY`S PRECIPITATION...WE COULD BE BACK INTO CRITICAL                
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND                    
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                                                               
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY               
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS ON             
THE PLAINS.  BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE INDICATING A WEAK SURFACE             
COLD FRONT WILL BACK UP TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WHICH WOULD SIMMER            
THE WINDS DOWN ON THE PLAINS.  THE NAM12 LOOKS MORE POSITIVE ABOUT              
THIS THAN THE GFS40.  THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING IN EARLY                     
MONDAY...BUT THEN RETREATING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  IF THE              
FRONT DOESN`T BACK UP TO THE MOUNTAINS...OR DOESN`T STAY UP AGAINST             
THE MOUNTAINS LONG ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER             
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.                                         
ON TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  THIS                
SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND              
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.  WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...THE FIRE WEATHER              
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS DAY.                                                
WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL                  
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF DRAWING IN A                     
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST...BRINGING COOLER UPSLOPE                      
CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME                  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT...THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND THINGS               
CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED. 50                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS KCOS AND KPUB BY MID                              
MORNING AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AND                
GENERALLY LIGHT N SFC WINDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. KALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. /34                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR                     
COZ083>089-093>099.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
911 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO REMOVE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS. WARNING FOR THE                  
SANGRES AND WETS...AND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN                                
FOOTHILLS...CONTINUES UNTIL NOON. SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE                   
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
..HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY OVER S MTNS THIS MORNING...                                
CURRENTLY...UPPER 500 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNER REGION AT            
3 AM THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION              
WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS ALONG THE S MTNS EXTENDING NE ACROSS EC CO              
INTO NW KS. TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN AT OR JUST ABOVE                  
FREEZING...AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MAINLY                  
ACCUMULATED OVER GRASSY AREAS.                                                  
TODAY...I AM A BIT HESITANT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGHLIGHTS.                    
ALTHOUGH S EL PASO WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH MORE SNOW...THE PALMER              
DIVIDE/NE FACING ASPECT OF TELLER COUNTY MAY GET A COUPLE MORE                  
INCHES IN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PRIMARY REASON WHY I WISH NOT TO             
CHANGE ANY HILITES FOR NOW IS THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO OUR WEST. IF            
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE AND SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE PIKES             
PEAK REGION...I WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORIES AT 6 AM FOR THE C MTN                
REGION AND PIKES PEAK REGION. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT MAKE THIS                    
DECISION UNTIL AFTER THE 4 AM PACKAGE GOES OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...ALL             
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA AND WILL             
KEEP THE WARNINGS GOING UNTIL THE EXPIRATION OF 12 NOON. SEVERAL                
MORE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THIS REGION.                   
REGARDING THE GUIDANCE...RUC AND ANM TRACK UPPER E ACROSS N NM THIS             
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY PRECIP             
TO CONTINUE OVER THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION AS 20-30KT 700 MB             
NE WINDS CONTINUE.                                                              
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT            
AS TEMPS ARE GOING TO GET INTO THE MID 20S MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS             
WITH L30S OVER FAR E CO. OFFICE POLICY IS TO ISSUE NPW COLD WX                  
PRODUCTS AFTER 15 APRIL. IN ADDITION...MANY PEOPLE HAVE TURNED ON               
THERE SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...AND WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE             
L/M20S...THIS COULD LEAD TO MANY BUSTED PLASTIC SPRINKLER HEADS. I              
WILL EMPHASIZE THIS THREAT IN THE NPW PRODUCT. /34                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
..MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...                
ON FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING              
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD SEE                    
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGHS.                 
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THINGS REALLY HEAT UP AN DRY OUT AGAIN.                
COULD SEE A RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY            
AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.  DRY SOUTHWEST WILL OVERSPREAD                  
SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.  THE                     
COMBINATION OF DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE            
GOOD MIXING...ALLOWING TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE            
SURFACE.  SO...WE`LL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY               
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.  PENDING HOW QUICKLY FINE FUELS DRY OUT               
FOLLOWING TODAY`S PRECIPITATION...WE COULD BE BACK INTO CRITICAL                
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND                    
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                                                               
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY               
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS ON             
THE PLAINS.  BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE INDICATING A WEAK SURFACE             
COLD FRONT WILL BACK UP TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WHICH WOULD SIMMER            
THE WINDS DOWN ON THE PLAINS.  THE NAM12 LOOKS MORE POSITIVE ABOUT              
THIS THAN THE GFS40.  THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING IN EARLY                     
MONDAY...BUT THEN RETREATING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  IF THE              
FRONT DOESN`T BACK UP TO THE MOUNTAINS...OR DOESN`T STAY UP AGAINST             
THE MOUNTAINS LONG ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER             
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.                                         
ON TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  THIS                
SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND              
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.  WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...THE FIRE WEATHER              
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS DAY.                                                
WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL                  
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF DRAWING IN A                     
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST...BRINGING COOLER UPSLOPE                      
CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME                  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT...THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND THINGS               
CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED. 50                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS KCOS AND KPUB BY MID                              
MORNING AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AND                
GENERALLY LIGHT N SFC WINDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. KALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. /34                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR                     
COZ083>089-093>099.                                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ087-                 
088.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
419 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY OVER S MTNS THIS MORNING...                               
CURRENTLY...UPPER 500 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNER REGION AT            
3 AM THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION              
WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS ALONG THE S MTNS EXTENDING NE ACROSS EC CO              
INTO NW KS. TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN AT OR JUST ABOVE                  
FREEZING...AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MAINLY                  
ACCUMULATED OVER GRASSY AREAS.                                                  
TODAY...I AM A BIT HESITANT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGHLIGHTS.                    
ALTHOUGH S EL PASO WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH MORE SNOW...THE PALMER              
DIVIDE/NE FACING ASPECT OF TELLER COUNTY MAY GET A COUPLE MORE                  
INCHES IN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PRIMARY REASON WHY I WISH NOT TO             
CHANGE ANY HILITES FOR NOW IS THE UPPER LOW IS STILL TO OUR WEST. IF            
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE AND SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE PIKES             
PEAK REGION...I WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORIES AT 6 AM FOR THE C MTN                
REGION AND PIKES PEAK REGION. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT MAKE THIS                    
DECISION UNTIL AFTER THE 4 AM PACKAGE GOES OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...ALL             
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA AND WILL             
KEEP THE WARNINGS GOING UNTIL THE EXPIRATION OF 12 NOON. SEVERAL                
MORE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THIS REGION.                   
REGARDING THE GUIDANCE...RUC AND ANM TRACK UPPER E ACROSS N NM THIS             
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY PRECIP             
TO CONTINUE OVER THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION AS 20-30KT 700 MB             
NE WINDS CONTINUE.                                                              
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT            
AS TEMPS ARE GOING TO GET INTO THE MID 20S MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS             
WITH L30S OVER FAR E CO. OFFICE POLICY IS TO ISSUE NPW COLD WX                  
PRODUCTS AFTER 15 APRIL. IN ADDITION...MANY PEOPLE HAVE TURNED ON               
THERE SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...AND WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE             
L/M20S...THIS COULD LEAD TO MANY BUSTED PLASTIC SPRINKLER HEADS. I              
WILL EMPHASIZE THIS THREAT IN THE NPW PRODUCT. /HODANISH                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...               
ON FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING              
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD SEE                    
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY HIGHS.                 
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THINGS REALLY HEAT UP AN DRY OUT AGAIN.                
COULD SEE A RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY            
AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.  DRY SOUTHWEST WILL OVERSPREAD                  
SOUTHERN COLORADO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.  THE                     
COMBINATION OF DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE            
GOOD MIXING...ALLOWING TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE            
SURFACE.  SO...WE`LL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY               
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.  PENDING HOW QUICKLY FINE FUELS DRY OUT               
FOLLOWING TODAY`S PRECIPITATION...WE COULD BE BACK INTO CRITICAL                
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND                    
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                                                               
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY               
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS ON             
THE PLAINS.  BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 ARE INDICATING A WEAK SURFACE             
COLD FRONT WILL BACK UP TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WHICH WOULD SIMMER            
THE WINDS DOWN ON THE PLAINS.  THE NAM12 LOOKS MORE POSITIVE ABOUT              
THIS THAN THE GFS40.  THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING IN EARLY                     
MONDAY...BUT THEN RETREATING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  IF THE              
FRONT DOESN`T BACK UP TO THE MOUNTAINS...OR DOESN`T STAY UP AGAINST             
THE MOUNTAINS LONG ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER             
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.                                         
ON TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  THIS                
SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND              
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.  WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...THE FIRE WEATHER              
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS DAY.                                                
WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL                  
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF DRAWING IN A                     
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST...BRINGING COOLER UPSLOPE                      
CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME                  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT...THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND THINGS               
CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED. WALROD                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS KCOS AND KPUB BY MID                              
MORNING AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AND                
GENERALLY LIGHT N SFC WINDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. KALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. /HODANISH                                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR                     
COZ083>089-093>099.                                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ059>061-063-                   
076>078.                                                                        
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080.               
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ058-081-                
082-084.                                                                        
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR                  
COZ083-085-086.                                                                 
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ087-                 
088.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34/50                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
725 PM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AMPLIFIED BUT                       
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN FEATURES             
FROM EAST TO WEST INCLUDE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OFF THE                   
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH RIDGING JUST TO ITS WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST             
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER UPSTREAM A DEEP AND            
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE                         
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS OF THE U.S AND SOUTHERN                
CANADA. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS                 
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A LONG BROKEN             
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO               
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD FROM             
CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD TO MONTANA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS               
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS ANOTHER              
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA            
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES.                                              
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST            
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND                     
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN               
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COOL BELOW NORMAL NIGHT IN TERMS OF             
TEMPERATURE FOR THE AREA BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST TWO              
NIGHTS. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S                  
TONIGHT INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW               
BETTER RADIATORS ACROSS THE MORE SANDY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE                   
FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY APPROACH 40 AROUND SUNRISE BUT FROST WILL NOT              
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.                                                            
ANOTHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST. INCREASING MOISTER ON MORE              
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE             
ABLE TO SUPPORT A SCT CU FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO               
THE CLEAR SKIES THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE CU FIELD WILL THIN FURTHER               
EAST INTO THE BIG BEND AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES                 
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR MID APRIL WITH MANY INLAND                 
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 OR PERHAPS A FEW BETTER. ALONG THE COAST               
HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE MORE COMMON WITH THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER               
SHELF WATERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW              
CU BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERLY             
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE TONIGHT, THE S ON FRI AND SW ON SAT BEFORE            
THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT OCCURS. EXPECTING AN EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE            
IN WIND TO SPREAD EAST TO WEST FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS THROUGH              
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA FOR A TIME            
WITH THIS SURGE. WINDS FALL BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA BY THE LATER                 
FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION                      
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR OUR WRN LEGS ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY               
LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  43  80  57  79  53 /  05  05  20  50  20                           
PANAMA CITY  55  76  62  76  58 /  05  10  50  50  10                           
DOTHAN       47  80  60  74  52 /  05  10  50  40  05                           
ALBANY       47  81  58  77  49 /  05  05  30  50  20                           
VALDOSTA     44  82  57  80  56 /  05  05  10  50  20                           
CROSS CITY   45  82  57  80  58 /  05  05  10  30  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.                  
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.                    
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8  PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING ALL               
     ZONES.                                                                     
     RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR               
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...            
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR.                                         
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
AVIATION...CAMP                                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
239 AM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE 05 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE CENTERED OVER CROSS CITY FL. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM             
WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL ONCE                
AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORMALLY                   
COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE                
BEEN NEARLY 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AT MOST SITES...AND              
LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT NON-ZERO             
WIND SPEEDS. THUS WE NOW THINK GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT QUITE               
REACH THE FROST POINT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.              
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PROFILERS SHOWED STRONG RIDGING                     
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA              
COAST SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 12 UTC WED ECMWF            
FORECAST DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH             
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THIS                     
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REACH AVERAGE LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN                
THOUGH LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE...THEY                
WILL NOT COME CLOSE TO THE 30S. MOS (BOTH GFS AND ETA) HAVE                     
OUTPERFORMED THE BIAS CORRECTED MODEL LOW TEMPERATURES RECENTLY...SO            
WE WEIGHTED OUR FORECAST LOWS TOWARD MOS. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS             
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON                      
FRIDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL OF THE NUMERICAL             
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A VERY DRY MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE ON FRIDAY OVER           
OUR AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALMOST NIL. DEEP LAYER                   
MOISTURE...CAPE...AND Q-G FORCING WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST               
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOS             
IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING ABOUT A 40 PERCENT                
CHANCE OF RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE CAPE WILL             
CLIMB ABOVE 300 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE CAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW               
1000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE NOT FORECAST TO EXCEED              
30 KT...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN                
BUILDS INTO THE SERN STATES ON SUNDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN              
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE ERN STATES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A                   
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED TO THE               
S OVER THE GOMEX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY                     
TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A                  
COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN                
VALLEYS BEFORE STALLING JUST N OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AS LOW                    
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NRN TX. AS THE LOW              
MOVES NEWD, IT WILL PULL THE STALLED FRONT NWD AS A WARM FRONT                  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH ALL THE ENERGY ALOFT AND SURFACE                
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINING N OF OUR CWA, IT WILL BE A GENERALLY              
DRY AND WARM PERIOD, WITH TEMPS AVERAGING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE                 
CLIMO.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXCELLENT                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP FROM               
KTLH TO KVLD AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MARRED               
BY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FT ARE                  
EXPECTED TODAY. ELY WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 5-10 KTS FOR ALL                    
TERMINALS EXPECT KPFN WHERE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL                
SHIFT WINDS TO THE S-SW AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR               
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VAD WIND PROFILES...AND RUC                   
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MORE OF A NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE THIS                     
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS.                 
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS EARLY                  
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD              
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX DOWN VERY DRY AIR                
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LONG DURATIONS OF VERY LOW RH                 
FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, RED               
FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. DESPITE HIGHER               
DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY, DURATIONS OF LOW RH WILL BE CLOSE TO FOUR                 
HOURS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND FROM TLH E AND SE,               
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROMIXITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. A FIRE                   
WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT, AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT                
DECIDE WHETHER TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. THERE WILL BE NO CONCERNS               
ON SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIP.                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  77  46  79  55  77 /   0   0   0  10  40                           
PANAMA CITY  76  55  78  63  77 /   0   0   0  30  40                           
DOTHAN       76  49  79  59  77 /   0   0   0  30  40                           
ALBANY       76  49  80  56  77 /   0   0   0  20  40                           
VALDOSTA     76  47  80  55  77 /   0   0   0  10  40                           
CROSS CITY   78  48  80  56  80 /   0   0   0  10  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...               
     HENRY...HOUSTON.                                                           
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR              
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM           
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...                
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                    
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR.                                                          
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI                                        
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1207 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 830 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                               
COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAS             
SLOWED ITS MOVEMENT QUITE A BIT AS ITS ORIENTATION BECOMES PARALLEL             
TO THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS MAY GIVE THE FRONT AN                    
ADDITIONAL NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...AND THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT                   
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF STALLING THE FRONT ONCE IT GETS              
NEAR A DUBUQUE TO KIRKSVILLE LINE...THUS KEEPING ANY NOCTURNAL                  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                     
THEREFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES ON TRACK AND DO              
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY UPDATES THIS EVENING.                                        
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1207 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                              
AREA RADARS/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE 1K FT            
LEVEL ARE STAYING UP AROUND 50 KT WITH SURFACE WINDS NEAR OR BELOW              
17 KT. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU             
UNTIL DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TAKES PLACE AROUND                 
SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS ERN IA AND              
NWRN MO...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NEARLY STATIONARY RFD-IRK AROUND              
12Z THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LEAN EXCEPT ALONG THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY. THE 00Z THU NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE            
PROGRESS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE             
CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL BE                
BELOW 30 PCT THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. 850 MB WINDS ARE GETTING MORE              
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME...SO THE SLOW ADVECTION OF                    
STRATOCU FIELD OVER EXTREME WRN IL INTO THE PIA/SPI AREAS APPEARS ON            
TARGET AFTER 08Z. CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6K-8K FT RANGE. SCT-BKN             
STRATOCU WILL THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH            
CEILINGS WELL WITHIN THE VFR RANGE.                                             
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 215 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                               
RAINY WEATHER ON TAP LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A                      
SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER                   
THAT...DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                     
STRETCHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. FURTHER WEST...COLD FRONT IS DRAPED            
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THE TWO             
SYSTEMS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR                    
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. DESPITE THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...VERY              
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED AT THE SURFACE OR ON              
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE              
ROCKIES...WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN             
CONUS.                                                                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE             
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS TODAY HAVE                  
GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 20 TO 30MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND             
40MPH AT TIMES. EVEN THOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN JUST SHY OF                  
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL ALLOW CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO RIDE THROUGH            
00Z AS SCHEDULED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AS THE NIGHT GOES             
ON...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING INTO THE 10 TO 15MPH RANGE AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO                   
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT OBS SHOW            
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ADVECTING NORTHWARD                
THROUGH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                
WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TOO              
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND THUS TOO BULLISH WITH                 
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG BOUNDARY. HAVE THEREFORE PULLED ALL MENTION OF             
POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.                                             
AS UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TRACKS EASTWARD               
AND AMPLIFIES...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO               
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH SUCH AN               
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...A SLOWER EVOLUTION AND ARRIVAL OF             
RAINFALL IS PREFERRED. 12Z 16 APR MODELS ALL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT            
WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK.                 
BASED ON THE INITIALLY VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...AND THE SLOWER EASTWARD            
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVE...HAVE CUT POPS BACK DRASTICALLY                  
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP BULK OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS                     
DRY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED TO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.                
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD            
COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS WARM AS THEY DID                 
TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO THE                 
MIDDLE 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD MISSOURI.               
RESULT WILL BE RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EASTWARD. HAVE AGAIN TRIMMED              
POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING LOCATIONS ALONG AND               
EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR DRY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN KILX CWA...WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER.               
BEST SHOT AT RAIN ACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE ON FRIDAY...AS                       
SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MODELS DO NOT                
PERFECTLY AGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE FEATURES...BOTTOM LINE              
REMAINS THE SAME. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND OFF AND ON                          
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL              
CARRY LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WILL UNDERCUT NUMERIC            
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS AS WELL...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE            
TO UPPER 60S. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS EAST OF THE REGION             
BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS             
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.                                                       
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
WEATHER IMPROVES BY SUNDAY...AS UPPER FEATURE TRACKS FURTHER EAST               
AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH            
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY                
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD THE             
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE WEST...THEY WILL                
RISE ACROSS THE EAST...RESULTING IN A MARKED WARMING TREND EARLY                
NEXT WEEK. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL INTO THE                       
TEENS...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ON BOTH MONDAY AND              
TUESDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PERHAPS FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE              
MARK BY TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRACK                
E/NE...PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST. GFS/ECMWF STILL NOT IN            
TOTAL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OR THE            
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL STICK CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR               
NOW...WHICH BRINGS FRONT INTO ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A                      
RESULT...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW              
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. RAIN                 
CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED             
BY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.                               
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
110 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
309 PM MDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
16Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM KTCC NORTHEAST            
TO KICL. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS MUCH MORE HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT THAT                 
YESTERDAY...AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR WAS NOTED SLIDING OUT OF                    
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING NEAR 20 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS            
AND VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS OF 16Z. BOTH KLBF AND KDNR                   
SOUNDINGS INDICATED FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT                   
BETWEEN H7 AND H5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT             
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS             
WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES...TYPES...AND POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERALL BOTH GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED                  
RELATIVELY WELL WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH GFS WAS SLIGHTLY                
BETTER WITH POSITION OF FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE AT H7 AND H85.               
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WAS OBSERVED                 
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING...WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE             
CWA DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH              
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. CROSS SECTIONS PERPENDICULAR TO THE H85-H3            
THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE A DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION FROM THE SFC               
ALL THE WAY TO H4 WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS PRETTY MUCH             
THE WHOLE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY...BUT BOTH             
THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL               
ZONE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM AND CANADIAN ALL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD             
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO             
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FIRST CONCERN FOR THE                 
NIGHT WILL BE HOW FAST LOWER AND MID LEVELS CAN SATURATE DURING THE             
EVENING. MODELS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OCCURRING...BUT BASED ON              
CURRENT T-TD SPREADS AND OBSERVED PROFILES THIS MORNING THINK IT IS             
GOING TO TAKE A WHILE LONGER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.              
H5-H3 DIV Q ALONG WITH 1.5 PVU PRESSURE FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT                    
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA            
BETWEEN 06-15Z...WITH BEST OVERLAP OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND                
MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.                 
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG                    
RESPONSE TO THE FORCING...AND EXPECT A FEW HEAVIER BANDS OF                     
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEARS            
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FINDING THE                          
NORTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. AS             
MENTIONED BEFORE...FRONTAL FORCING WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO H4 AND            
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER WIND                
FIELDS AT H6 AND H7 ALONG WITH THETA E VALUES DONT REALLY SUPPORT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE AND TO THE            
NORTH OF THE LOW. AM GOING TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING                
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THAN SOUTHERN             
CWA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                     
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE...AS POTENTIAL FOR PHASE CHANGE               
EXISTS FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH AIR ALREADY MUCH DRIER                 
ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT WET BULB TEMPS TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN MODELS             
FORECASTING AND EXPECT A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. 15Z               
SREF MEAN PCP TYPE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND GREATLY EXPANDED AREA OF              
SNOW IN FORECAST. WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE PRECIPITATION...AM A               
LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH            
THE DAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE OVERDONE IN MODELS...               
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CWA.                
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS H5 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT            
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. LEANING                
TOWARDS A SMALL SNOW BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING ALONG A              
CHEYENNE WELLS TO SAINT FRANCIS LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAST               
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IS TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A WSW.                    
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE                  
ENTIRE AREA BEHIND THURSDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BACKED OF TEMPS                
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH              
SUBSIDENCE LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING. ANOTHER LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP            
ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK             
INTO THE 70S.                                                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL APPEAR TO HAVE THE SAME               
GENERAL IDEA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH LARGE TROUGH                     
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN             
THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ON HOW THIS TROUGH EVOLVES THROUGH             
THE END OF THE PERIOD. 06Z GFS...00Z CANADIAN...00Z GFS MEAN AND 00Z            
ECMWF ALL APPEAR SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN HAVING A MORE ZONAL SOLUTION               
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z GFS SOLUTION. AS A             
STARTING POINT WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS 06Z GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH                  
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. APPEARS EXPECTED POSITION OF H5 TROUGH WILL           
KEEP CWA IN FAIRLY DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE              
PERIOD ALL THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME SUPPORT FOR A FEW                
PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH           
A WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT THINK CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH            
TO ADD INTO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL             
LIKELY VARY GREATLY THOUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID 70/LOW 80S EARLY IN              
THE PERIOD AND HIGHS IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY              
TO BE CONFIDENT ON TEMPS...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH IDEA OF WARMUP               
SAT-SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK.                             
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
104 AM MDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS ARE                   
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FROM ABOUT 07Z TO 10Z. THEN AFTER               
11Z...DEEPER IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN FOR BOTH                  
SITES. BY 21Z...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...THEN SCATTER BACK               
OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 01Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN IN THE 20 KT GUSTS TO 30 KT RANGE UP THROUGH 20Z...THEN                  
BEGIN TO DIMINISH.                                                              
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
334 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED MID AN UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...              
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST. SFC OBS SHOW SFC TROUGH FILLING IN                 
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING                
FROM NEAR SENECA TO SLN. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE DAY HAS               
ALLOWED CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.                      
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG               
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PVA               
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP. INITIALLY THINK CONVECTION WILL               
HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 03Z. 18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EML              
CAPPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 00Z. ONCE THE LLV JET INCREASES              
AND CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE                
FRONT. THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER                  
NORTHWESTERN OK...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED                         
THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED             
HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW               
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASING BY 12Z. WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO             
TRACK MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK SHOWERS              
WILL BE MORE DOMINATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME              
THUNDERSTORMS IN GIVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.                               
PRECIP AMOUNTS SEEM A LITTLE TOO HIGH FROM HPC. SINCE PERSISTENT                
CONVECTION OR TRAINING CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THINK QPF                
AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN .5 AND 1 INCH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN             
THE NEW ECMWF /WHICH WAS PREFERRED BY HPC/ HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP             
AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE BULK OF RAIN ANTICIPATED TO FALL OVER            
NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST               
MONTH...RIVER BASINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BETTER.                
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS                
EAST CENTRAL KS AND CONTINUED WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID             
50S SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. THINK THERE                 
COULD BE A BIG GRADIENT IN HIGHS AS WELL WITH CLOUD COVER AND                   
NORTHERLY WINDS HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL             
KS. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WARMER AIR INTO              
EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -WOLTERS                                                
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER TROFS PROGRESSION BECOME MORE AND              
MORE EVIDENT AS THE WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO OHIO             
VALLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWFS RECENT              
RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING               
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.             
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...WITH             
WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES LIMITED.                 
THERE IS EVEN MINOR CONCERN FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE THURSDAY               
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE NORTH IS                      
TAPPED...THOUGH PROFILES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH AND MOISTURE                   
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID. AM INCREASINGLY                
CONFIDENT IN MOST AREAS SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THURSDAY             
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS A 80KT 500MB JET STREAK ROTATES                  
AROUND THE TROF...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DON/T APPEAR TO BE                  
TERRIBLY HIGH. PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP            
FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK THAN EARLIER                      
BELIEVED...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN            
FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOTS OF              
SUN SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.                               
THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THE LATER PERIODS IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE                
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS...AND ANY                
WAVES THAT MAY ROTATE AROUND IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO            
SLOWLY INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...BUT WARM AND DRY MID               
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED UNTIL STRONG/DEEP FORCING                 
COMES INTO PLAY. THIS APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AS A LOBE OF             
THE UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST               
INTO THE PLAINS. SOME PROGRESSION TO THE TROF WILL BRING SOME LARGER            
SCALE UPPER FORCING IN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER              
LOW LEVEL AIR WORKING IN BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES SMALL WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONCERNS AND THE BULK OF THE            
FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN SOMEWHAT                
ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ONLY FALL                  
SLIGHTLY AS THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE RATHER PACIFIC IN                
NATURE.  65                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD                 
FRONT BETWEEN 02-04Z. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF             
THE TERMINALS...ADDED SOME VCNTY TS EXPECTING THE INITIAL COVERAGE              
OF TS TO BE ISOLATED. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH CONTINUED               
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TS SHOULD BECOME              
MORE WIDE SPREAD. THINK WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT CIGS WILL                 
LOWER TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS IFR              
CIGS IN BY 12Z WITH PRECIP REDUCING VSBY TO AROUND 3SM. HARD TO                 
ARGUE AGAINST THIS EXPECTING THE SFC LOW TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF              
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. -WOLTERS                
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
320 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
H25 JET WAS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NM BEFORE            
TURNING NORTHEAST THROUGH NE AND INTO CANADA. JET STREAK OF 110KTS              
WAS FOUND INTO EASTERN SD. HEIGHT FALLS OF 80 METERS IN ADVANCE OF              
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH WERE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN CO WITH HEIGHT              
RISES OF 130 METERS INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED             
FROM MT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. H7 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0C AT               
12Z THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS TROUGH, TEENS BELOW 0C WERE FOUND. H85            
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS ABOVE 0C EXTENDED NORTH FROM TX INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, 16Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT                   
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN MN SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TX. A                
DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM THE COLD FRONT IN THE TX PANHANDLE SOUTH                  
THROUGH WESTERN TX.                                                             
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND PRECIP             
THURSDAY.                                                                       
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES              
TONIGHT. BY 12Z THU, CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS                  
REGION. ASSOCIATED S/WVS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS STARTING               
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTERN NM THIS                   
EVENING AS WELL. FRONT, CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN KS, WILL REMAIN                
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE               
DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA BY LATE                 
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN FA WILL INCREASE. GIVEN SOME CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AS FAR                
WEST AS DODGE CITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SLOWLY            
EAST WITH FRONT WOBBLING A LITTLE ACROSS THE FA. LIS AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT ARE BELOW 0C. BULK OF INSTABILITY IS FOUND ALOFT ACROSS THE               
FA. FAIRLY GOOD CAP IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH EVENING. IT             
DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TO DEVELOP DUE              
TO THIS. ALSO, THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE GIVEN             
THE LACK OF DEEP SURFACE MOISTURE. GFS PLACES BAROCLINIC ZONE A BIT             
FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z THU THAN THE NAM WHILE THE RUC IS FURTHER NORTH            
THAN BOTH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. GIVEN THIS, WILL               
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS FOR TIMING. VERY IMPRESSIVE 2D                         
FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM ELLIS COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH SEWARD             
COUNTY. IN ADDITION, 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BETWEEN 00Z THU             
AND 06Z THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES IN                  
EXCESS OF 7 G/KG ARE ALSO PRESENT DURING THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE ON            
THE ORDER OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE NE FA TO NEARLY AN INCH ACROSS THE               
CENTRAL FA. FURTHER WEST, NEAR THE CO BORDER, LESSER AMOUNTS ARE                
FOUND. GIVEN THIS, WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA                     
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO            
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.                                
THURSDAY, SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS              
DIMINISHED BUT DOWNGLIDE DOES NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL LATE EVENING.            
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH. SOUNDINGS SHOW                  
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND BEHIND SYSTEM. WILL KEEP            
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER EAST,              
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOWER TO EXIT THE FA AS             
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT,            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM               
SLIDES INTO MO. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH             
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AS COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS FA. H5 TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW            
ARE IN THE -20C RANGE THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN KS. H85 READINGS IN               
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FA WITH A FEW NEAR TO JUST BELOW 0C                
READINGS IN EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                  
FRIDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE               
DAYTIME HOURS. H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE               
WEST TO THE LOWER TEENS EAST. THIS IS THANKS TO A LEE TROUGH                    
STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS BY EVENING. OVERALL,                 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN                 
KANSAS.                                                                         
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRANSITIONING EAST                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT.                     
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN COMING              
ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS               
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH THE MOST RECENT GFS RUN COMING MORE IN             
LINE WITH THE ECMWF(HIRES)...INDICATING THIS SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY               
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS              
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE                 
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE DETAILS             
BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE POINTING TO A SERIES OF S/WAVES              
PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW               
SKIRTS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. A                 
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME                
FRAME BUT QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE FAIRLY NORTHERN            
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MAY LIMIT PRECIP                   
CHANCES. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP             
BY EARLY SATURDAY SETTING UP A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS                  
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A            
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT             
H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS(C) EAST TO THE LOWER 20S(C) WEST              
ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF H85 TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. A             
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ALLOWING FOR                     
GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE                  
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE                  
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE                  
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z AT OR AROUND ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS            
INITIALLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IFR/MVFR             
CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF              
THUNDERSTORMS AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARDS            
MORNING IN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY                
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  44  46  34  67 /  70  70  20   0                                           
GCK  41  45  32  68 /  80  70  10   0                                           
EHA  41  43  33  70 /  60  70  10   0                                           
LBL  41  46  32  69 /  60  70  10   0                                           
HYS  41  46  35  63 /  80  70  20   0                                           
P28  50  53  39  63 /  60  70  40   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN30/32/32                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
852 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. EVENING TEMPS              
ARE FALLING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST. NEW FORECAST IS IN BETTER            
AGREEMENT WITH 2 METER TEMPS FROM 15Z SREF MEAN AND 21Z RUC.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008/...                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AND                     
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT.                                
SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING BRISK SOUTH TO                
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS            
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...              
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HELP UP CLOSER TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND              
HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S WITH THE AID OF AT LEAST               
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.                                                               
ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF             
THE NEXT MID LEVEL LOW AND AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LATE THIS               
WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THU                 
NIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL CHCS FAR WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK             
FRI.                                                                            
MAIN SYSTEM NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FRI            
(WEST AREAS) AND FRI NIGHT (EAST AREAS) TIME FRAME...AS THE SURFACE             
FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES            
AND INSTABILITY LOOK MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED                         
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL NUMBERS LOOK TO BE                   
INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK RIGHT NOW. LI`S SHOULD REMAIN            
ABOVE ZERO THROUGHOUT...SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALSO LOOKS LIKE             
A MINIMAL POSSIBILITY.                                                          
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE SYSTEM FOR THE STRONG               
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN AT MANY               
LOCATIONS WITHIN ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO            
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS...BUT MAY SLOW THE RIVER LEVEL               
DECREASES A BIT.                                                                
FRONT WILL SWEEP MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WELL EAST OF THE REGION                
SAT...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE REGION               
SAT. WILL BACK OFF A BIT MORE ON TEMPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS               
AND NW SURFACE WINDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BACK OFF MORE IF THE SLOWER              
PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF/UKMET COME TO FRUITION. HOPEFULLY...ALL                
WILL BE IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AT THE LATEST AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY              
MOVES EAST AND ALLOWS SUNSHINE TO RETURN.                                       
STILL LOOKING FOR A BIG WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS H50 FLOW                
BECOMES MORE WLY/WSWLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS.                
COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS MOIST/SOMEWHAT DIRTY SW FLOW                 
MON/TUE...BUT SEE NO MAJOR SIGNAL AS OF NOW THAT WOULD SUPPORT A                
MAJOR RAIN/STORM EVENT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS              
THIS EVENING...THEN PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20                
KNOTS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...              
WITH INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED                 
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE               
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY              
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...MEFFERT                                                              
AVIATION...RP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1026 PM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS -RA COVERAGE.                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING             
E INTO THE SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING COMBINED WITH A MORE ZONAL            
FLOW OVER SRN CANADA IS RESULTING IN UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM            
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO EWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF            
JET AND CORRESPONDING BAND OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SUPPORTING              
PCPN THAT IS STREAKING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE INTO THE                
UPPER LAKES REGION. PCPN HAS NOT BEEN WELL ORGANIZED YET AS ABUNDANT            
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT OVER UPPER MI PER LATE AFTN TAMDAR                 
SOUNDINGS FROM KSAW/KCMX. IT IS ONLY WHERE FORCING IS WELL FOCUSED              
THAT PCPN HAS OVERCOME DRY AIR. SO FAR THAT AREA EXISTS FROM ABOUT              
WATERSMEET AND KIMT NE TO KMQT.                                                 
POSITION OF UPPER JET AND 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS            
THAT THE AREA WHERE SOME -RA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING MAY BE THE AREA             
WHERE PCPN REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT THRU THE NIGHT. SO WILL BUMP POPS            
UP ACROSS ERN IRON/DICKINSON/ERN BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.           
STILL EXPECT THE FAR W TO REMAIN DRY. LARGER BATCH OF -RA THAT HAS              
DEVELOPED IN ERN IA/NW IL/SW WI WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SE AND E FCST            
AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING PREVIOUS FCST OF CATEGORICAL               
POPS FOR MOST OF THAT AREA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)... ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT                        
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT                 
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HEADING OUR WAY. AT 1930Z...RADAR WAS                    
INDICATING RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER                        
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...WITH RAIN STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL                   
WISCONSIN.  THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED                
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH UPPER LOWER            
MICHIGAN...TO SOUTHERN IOWA AND CENTRAL KANSAS.                                 
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS                 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT ALREADY SWOLLEN                
RIVERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                   
THE NAM...IN ITS 12Z RUN HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING                 
MOISTURE TO OVERCOME THE RIDGE OVER SE CANADA.  THIS IS MORE IN LINE            
WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS.  THE CANADIAN REMAINS STILL A LITTLE             
MORE TO THE SE WITH PRECIPITATION...KEEPING A MAJORITY OVER EASTERN             
OR EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE            
AGGRESSIVE PRECIPITATION SLIDING MORE INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.              
EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT                         
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.                   
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                    
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN..THE 12Z NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM              
HAVE CONTINUED TREND TOWARD SPREADING PCPN FARTHER NW THROUGH MUCH              
OF UPPER MI. THE PCPN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WITH 250-300             
JET INTO NRN ONTARIO AND BAND OF 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN WELL TO            
THE NORTH OF THE 500 MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE FCST            
AGAIN LEANED MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WHICH WAS                    
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF IN LIMITING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF             
THE PCPN BAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONSIDERABLE               
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL/COVERAGE AS IT IS                  
POSSIBLE THAT THE PCPN BAND MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH OF TO THE WEST...PER            
NAM...SO THAT THE SE CWA MAY SEE LITTLE PCPN. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE              
FOR PCPN OR SPRINKLES INCLUDED BY SUNDAY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE                
WEAKENS.                                                                        
MON-THU...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW               
CONUS MID LEVEL LOW THAT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD S CNTRL CANADA. GIVEN              
THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND THE TREND OF 12Z GFS...THE                 
SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND FARTHER N POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW             
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WAS PREFERRED. SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR               
PCPN IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT LINGERING INTO TUE AS THE MAIN FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 10C AND LI            
AROUND 0 STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA WITH THE SYSTEM. CAA            
BRINGS IN ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR POSSIBILITY             
OF SCT RA/SN SHOWERS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS...AS RIVERS RISE DUE TO ONGOING                
SNOW MELT.  WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THEM AND THEIR               
RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL WATER DUE TO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH                   
SATURDAY NIGHT.  AT THE CURRENT TIME...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED              
TO RUN HIGH...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  SOME LOCATIONS OF NOTE INCLUDE            
THE EAST BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN...THE STURGEON RIVER             
DOWNSTREAM OF PRICKETT DAM AND UPSTREAM OF NAHMA JUNCTION...THE                 
MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR WHICH LAKE AND REPUBLIC...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER             
NEAR LAKE LINDEN...THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR UPPER FALLS...THE                 
CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...THE STAND THE MANISTIQUE RIVER                     
NORTHEAST OF MANISTIQUE. SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR                
FURTHER DETAILS.                                                                
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS PAGE AND CLICK ON A               
RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK AT               
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WAVES OF -RA WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION               
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. SINCE AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF             
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER UPPER MI...EXPECT -RA STREAMING INTO FAR                 
NRN WI TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING NE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS             
KCMX WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREAS OF -RA THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                  
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THERE. AT KSAW...WITH EXPECTATION            
OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING SLOW TO ERODE...DID NOT INTRODUCE -RA                
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EVEN                
WITH ONSET OF -RA. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOP FRI MORNING.                   
ALTHOUGH -RA SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT FRI AFTN...MVFR CIGS WILL               
LIKELY PERSIST. IF -RA ARRIVES SOONER AND IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN               
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT KSAW AS EARLY              
AS FRI MORNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS AT            
OR LESS THAN 20KT. STRONGER SE WINDS...BUT STILL AOB 25 KT COULD                
OCCUR LATE MONDAY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT                
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF THE                
CAROLINAS...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE GULF            
OF MEXICO...AND TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SW             
CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE               
SCALE TROF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY                
THIS MORNING OVER KS AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ALONG A                
REGION OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN FORCING. THIS FGEN FORCING WILL                   
EVENTUALLY SPREAD NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD BRING BAND OF              
PCPN INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI MAINLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                   
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH UPR MI EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN               
LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT                 
CLEARED SKIES OVER WRN UPR MI. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW ON THE            
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN FROM CONVECTION TO             
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. EXPECT              
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE               
MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN NCNTRL                      
COUNTIES.                                                                       
TONIGHT AND FRI...MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING                  
UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND                 
ASSOCIATED 800-600 FGEN WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF RAIN STREAMING UP                
FROM WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. PREFERRED THE NAM IN               
THE SHORT TERM WHICH KEEPS THE 850 MB FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
MORE PROMINENT DRY AIR OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SFC            
RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT THE PCPN CHCS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTH                 
CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS OF THE CWA. I DID BUMP UP THE POPS TO HIGH CHC            
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MI SHORELINE...CLOSER TO AXIS OF BEST FGEN                   
FORCING AND 850 MB  THERMAL GRADIENT.                                           
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PER HPC...FAVORED THE MORE SUPPRESSED             
NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SOLN WITH THE CLOSED LOW. CONSENSUS IS THAT THE                 
BLOCKING PATTERN AND RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD PUSH             
THE SYSTEM ON EASTERLY TRAJECTORY AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES. FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH NAM QPF FIELDS KEPT IN HIGHER               
CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS            
OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL U.P. WEAKENING FGEN FORCING AND 295K               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY               
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                             
HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY COOLER GIVEN                     
CLOUDS...CHCS OF PCPN AND EXPECTED ONSHORE NERLY FLOW OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGHS ALONG THE SHORELINE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MID              
40S WHILE READINGS NEAR THE WI BDR WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MONITORING OF RIVERS CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF FROM ONGOING SNOW MELT.               
RIVERS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THEIR FASTER RESPONSE               
INCLUDE THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN AND THE STURGEON RIVER             
NEAR ALSTON (THIS LATTER RIVER MORE DEPENDENT ON THE REGULATION OF              
THE PRICKETT DAM LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE GAUGE). THE TRAP ROCK HAS              
STABILIZED ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...LIKELY DUE TO THE                   
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE            
IT INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AS MORNING SUNSHINE HELPS MELT MORE SNOW.               
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RIVER TODAY AS IT MIGHT GO ABOVE FLOOD                   
STAGE...THOUGH EVEN IF IT DOES...THE IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE             
SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF FLOODING THERE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON            
REMAINS ON TARGET WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ONLY ALLOWS FOR MINOR               
FLOODING. THREE SLOWER RESPONSE RIVERS BUT ARE OR ABOVE BANKFULL                
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND THE TAHQUAMENON              
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE TWO MAIN RIVERS TO                
WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR WITCH LAKE AND THE ESCANABA                 
RIVER NEAR GWINN. BOTH RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL...              
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS.                  
CRESTS FOR THE SLOWER RESPONSE RIVERS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT                  
WEEK...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT EARLY              
NEXT WEEK IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT...THE CRESTS COULD REACH FLOOD                
STAGE.                                                                          
NEW 00Z ECMWF MODEL ALSO HAS SOME CONCERN FOR RIVERS IN THE EASTERN             
U.P. TONIGHT...SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DRIVEN PCPN DROPPING             
0.50 INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH LOCATION OF ALL THE               
COMPUTER MODELS...SO IT IS AN OUTLIER...NONETHELESS SOMETHING ELSE              
TO WATCH TODAY.                                                                 
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS PAGE AND CLICK ON A               
RIVER GAUGE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK AT              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z                         
FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FIGURED AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS.  VFR CEIGS AND VIS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE LOWER                
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP AT SAW AROUND OR JUST AFTER 09Z                 
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI AND ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY                 
NEAR. WILL ADD -RA AT SAW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  EVEN IF IT DOES                 
RAIN...I DO EXPECT A MORE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND                
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE                   
SUPERIOR TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THROUGH DURING THE              
NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN AT 25 KT OR            
LESS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA                     
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONGER SE WINDS...BUT STILL ONLY UP TO            
25 KT AT THIS TIME...ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY ON EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
HYDROLOGY...AJ/VOSS/DJP                                                         
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
726 AM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF THE                
CAROLINAS...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE GULF            
OF MEXICO...AND TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SW             
CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE               
SCALE TROF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY                
THIS MORNING OVER KS AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ALONG A                
REGION OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN FORCING. THIS FGEN FORCING WILL                   
EVENTUALLY SPREAD NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD BRING BAND OF              
PCPN INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI MAINLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                   
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH UPR MI EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN               
LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT                 
CLEARED SKIES OVER WRN UPR MI. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW ON THE            
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN FROM CONVECTION TO             
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. EXPECT              
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE               
MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN NCNTRL                      
COUNTIES.                                                                       
TONIGHT AND FRI...MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING                  
UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND                 
ASSOCIATED 800-600 FGEN WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF RAIN STREAMING UP                
FROM WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. PREFERRED THE NAM IN               
THE SHORT TERM WHICH KEEPS THE 850 MB FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
MORE PROMINENT DRY AIR OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SFC            
RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT THE PCPN CHCS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTH                 
CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS OF THE CWA. I DID BUMP UP THE POPS TO HIGH CHC            
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MI SHORELINE...CLOSER TO AXIS OF BEST FGEN                   
FORCING AND 850 MB  THERMAL GRADIENT.                                           
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PER HPC...FAVORED THE MORE SUPPRESSED             
NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SOLN WITH THE CLOSED LOW. CONSENSUS IS THAT THE                 
BLOCKING PATTERN AND RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD PUSH             
THE SYSTEM ON EASTERLY TRAJECTORY AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES. FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH NAM QPF FIELDS KEPT IN HIGHER               
CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS            
OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL U.P. WEAKENING FGEN FORCING AND 295K               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY               
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                             
HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY COOLER GIVEN                     
CLOUDS...CHCS OF PCPN AND EXPECTED ONSHORE NERLY FLOW OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGHS ALONG THE SHORELINE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MID              
40S WHILE READINGS NEAR THE WI BDR WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MONITORING OF RIVERS CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF FROM ONGOING SNOW MELT.               
RIVERS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THEIR FASTER RESPONSE               
INCLUDE THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN AND THE STURGEON RIVER             
NEAR ALSTON (THIS LATTER RIVER MORE DEPENDENT ON THE REGULATION OF              
THE PRICKETT DAM LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE GAUGE). THE TRAP ROCK HAS              
STABILIZED ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...LIKELY DUE TO THE                   
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE            
IT INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AS MORNING SUNSHINE HELPS MELT MORE SNOW.               
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RIVER TODAY AS IT MIGHT GO ABOVE FLOOD                   
STAGE...THOUGH EVEN IF IT DOES...THE IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE             
SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF FLOODING THERE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON            
REMAINS ON TARGET WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ONLY ALLOWS FOR MINOR               
FLOODING. THREE SLOWER RESPONSE RIVERS BUT ARE OR ABOVE BANKFULL                
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND THE TAHQUAMENON              
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE TWO MAIN RIVERS TO                
WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR WITCH LAKE AND THE ESCANABA                 
RIVER NEAR GWINN. BOTH RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL...              
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS.                  
CRESTS FOR THE SLOWER RESPONSE RIVERS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT                  
WEEK...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT EARLY              
NEXT WEEK IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT...THE CRESTS COULD REACH FLOOD                
STAGE.                                                                          
NEW 00Z ECMWF MODEL ALSO HAS SOME CONCERN FOR RIVERS IN THE EASTERN             
U.P. TONIGHT...SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DRIVEN PCPN DROPPING             
0.50 INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH LOCATION OF ALL THE               
COMPUTER MODELS...SO IT IS AN OUTLIER...NONETHELESS SOMETHING ELSE              
TO WATCH TODAY.                                                                 
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS PAGE AND CLICK ON A               
RIVER GAUGE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK AT              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO               
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT             
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN VFR                     
CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE                   
SUPERIOR TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THROUGH DURING THE              
NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN AT 25 KT OR            
LESS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA                     
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONGER SE WINDS...BUT STILL ONLY UP TO            
25 KT AT THIS TIME...ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY ON EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF THE                
CAROLINAS...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE GULF            
OF MEXICO...AND TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SW             
CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE               
SCALE TROF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO            
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY                
THIS MORNING OVER KS AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ALONG A                
REGION OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN FORCING. THIS FGEN FORCING WILL                   
EVENTUALLY SPREAD NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD BRING BAND OF              
PCPN INTO SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI MAINLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                   
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH UPR MI EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN               
LITTLE MORE THAN MID CLOUDS. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT                 
CLEARED SKIES OVER WRN UPR MI. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW ON THE            
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN FROM CONVECTION TO             
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. EXPECT              
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE               
MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN NCNTRL                      
COUNTIES.                                                                       
TONIGHT AND FRI...MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING                  
UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND                 
ASSOCIATED 800-600 FGEN WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF RAIN STREAMING UP                
FROM WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. PREFERRED THE NAM IN               
THE SHORT TERM WHICH KEEPS THE 850 MB FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
MORE PROMINENT DRY AIR OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SFC            
RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT THE PCPN CHCS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTH                 
CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS OF THE CWA. I DID BUMP UP THE POPS TO HIGH CHC            
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MI SHORELINE...CLOSER TO AXIS OF BEST FGEN                   
FORCING AND 850 MB  THERMAL GRADIENT.                                           
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PER HPC...FAVORED THE MORE SUPPRESSED             
NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SOLN WITH THE CLOSED LOW. CONSENSUS IS THAT THE                 
BLOCKING PATTERN AND RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD PUSH             
THE SYSTEM ON EASTERLY TRAJECTORY AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE                 
GREAT LAKES. FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH NAM QPF FIELDS KEPT IN HIGHER               
CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS            
OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL U.P. WEAKENING FGEN FORCING AND 295K               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY               
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                             
HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY COOLER GIVEN                     
CLOUDS...CHCS OF PCPN AND EXPECTED ONSHORE NERLY FLOW OFF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. EXPECT HIGHS ALONG THE SHORELINE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MID              
40S WHILE READINGS NEAR THE WI BDR WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MONITORING OF RIVERS CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF FROM ONGOING SNOW MELT.               
RIVERS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THEIR FASTER RESPONSE               
INCLUDE THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN AND THE STURGEON RIVER             
NEAR ALSTON (THIS LATTER RIVER MORE DEPENDENT ON THE REGULATION OF              
THE PRICKETT DAM LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE GAUGE). THE TRAP ROCK HAS              
STABILIZED ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...LIKELY DUE TO THE                   
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE            
IT INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AS MORNING SUNSHINE HELPS MELT MORE SNOW.               
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RIVER TODAY AS IT MIGHT GO ABOVE FLOOD                   
STAGE...THOUGH EVEN IF IT DOES...THE IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE             
SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF FLOODING THERE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON            
REMAINS ON TARGET WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ONLY ALLOWS FOR MINOR               
FLOODING. THREE SLOWER RESPONSE RIVERS BUT ARE OR ABOVE BANKFULL                
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION AND THE TAHQUAMENON              
RIVER NEAR PARADISE. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE TWO MAIN RIVERS TO                
WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR WITCH LAKE AND THE ESCANABA                 
RIVER NEAR GWINN. BOTH RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL...              
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS.                  
CRESTS FOR THE SLOWER RESPONSE RIVERS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT                  
WEEK...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT EARLY              
NEXT WEEK IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT...THE CRESTS COULD REACH FLOOD                
STAGE.                                                                          
NEW 00Z ECMWF MODEL ALSO HAS SOME CONCERN FOR RIVERS IN THE EASTERN             
U.P. TONIGHT...SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DRIVEN PCPN DROPPING             
0.50 INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH LOCATION OF ALL THE               
COMPUTER MODELS...SO IT IS AN OUTLIER...NONETHELESS SOMETHING ELSE              
TO WATCH TODAY.                                                                 
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS PAGE AND CLICK ON A               
RIVER GAUGE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK AT              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX ARE EXPECTED (BEFORE             
8Z) ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.            
IT IS POSSIBLE THE MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT TO KSAW...BUT THE MOISTURE            
SEEMS TO BE TRACKING MORE NE RATHER THAN E. OTHERWISE...VFR                     
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCMX AND KSAW THRU THE REST OF            
THE FCST PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE                   
SUPERIOR TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THROUGH DURING THE              
NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO REMAIN AT 25 KT OR            
LESS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA                     
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONGER SE WINDS...BUT STILL ONLY UP TO            
25 KT AT THIS TIME...ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY ON EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/AJ                                                           
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
419 AM EDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI               
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE                
GULF COAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS                  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  THIS SETUP WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A SEASONABLY            
WARM DAY.  A MILDER MORNING START COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND                  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN THICKNESSES WILL ADEQUATELY COUNTER AN INCREASE            
IN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND WILL BUMP HIGHS UP TO AROUND 70F             
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT FAR NORTH).                                          
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CURRENTLY            
HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                 
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE...EXTREMELY DRY LOWER LEVELS                
KEEPING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL                     
WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE            
SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS REMAINS                
LARGELY OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SHOWING OVER A            
TENTH OF AN INCH FALLING IN WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  GIVEN THIS AND THE               
DEPTH OF THE DRYING SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX AND DTX SOUNDINGS...WILL               
SIDE WITH THE DRIER NAM AND REMOVE THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON.  MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST GRADIENT            
OFF LAKE HURON INTO THE NORTHERN THUMB BY 21Z...WITH THE ONSHORE                
FLOW BRINGING AN ABRUPT COOLDOWN LATE IN THE DAY FOR THIS AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
THE HARBINGER OF RECENT UNCERTAINTY IS UNDER THE PROCESS OF CUTTING             
OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING.  AS TYPICALLY SEEN               
WITH AMPLIFYING SYSTEMS IN BLOCKY REGIMES...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO            
PROGRESSIVE. THEREFORE...AN UNDERLYING THEME IN THIS LONG TERM                  
PACKAGE IS TOO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND REMAIN BEARISH WITH             
POPS PRIOR TO SATURDAY.                                                         
TONIGHT...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF NMM/ARW RUNS ARE INDICATING A               
MORE SOUTHERLY PENETRATION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT AS LAKE             
HURON PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT AND A PNEUMONIA FRONT (LAKE                   
INFLUENCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT) STRUCTURE RESULTS. HOWEVER...FEEL               
THERE ARE TWO LARGE NEGATIVES TO THIS SOLUTION. THE FIRST IS THE                
LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND BOUNDARY NORMAL FLOW. THE SECOND IS THE            
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LOWER                  
MICHIGAN. ULTIMATELY...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HINGES ON               
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT/LOW LEVEL FGEN/LOCALIZED POOLING            
OF MOISTURE. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN            
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH PALTRY COLUMN SATURATION.             
HAVE SIDED WITH THE 17.00Z OPERATIONAL NAM AS THE DEPICTION APPEARS             
THE MOST REALISTIC WITH QPF AND THE DUELING AIRMASSES. BOTTOM                   
LINE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE                   
NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB.                                                  
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING (SHORTWAVE RIDGING) OVER             
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AS THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION TRACKS INTO THE             
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDING NORTH OF            
THE FORECAST AREA WILL TIGHTEN AS MIDLEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS TURN MORE            
SOUTHERLY AND RESULTANT CONVERGENCE INCREASES. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED            
DRY SLOT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ALL AREAS               
OUTSIDE OF BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES.  THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER                   
MENTIONED A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. AGAIN...KEPT IT OUT OF THE                  
FORECAST AS LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN LOWER/LAKE MICHIGAN STAND              
THE BEST CHANCE OF WITNESSING. THIS FAR EAST...THE ATMOSPHERE                   
REMAINS CAPPED UP TO 600MB AND ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVE              
TOO SHALLOW. HAVE INCREASED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FULL CATEGORY            
ON FRIDAY...GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.                 
PROVIDED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HIGHS WILL            
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF I 69.             
THIS WEEKEND...THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN INCREASES ON SATURDAY AS THE              
VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                
DEEP FGEN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY AND HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY               
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH TIRING DIFFERENCES                    
UNYIELDING BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS FOR THE               
SATURDAY PERIOD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS                  
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER CENTRAL LAKE            
HURON THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT...AND CONSEQUENTLY LIGHTER WINDS OVER ALL MARINE AREAS.                
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT                  
LAKES.  HOWEVER...THE STABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 113 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE MOST PART...SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 12 KNOTS OR                 
LESS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. THE KDTX VAD               
WIND PROFILE SHOWS 45 KNOTS AT 2K FEET. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE                  
LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE 40 TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 1               
AND 2K FT AGL. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR ATOP THE SHALLOW                 
NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL               
WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASING BETWEEN 09Z AND                         
12Z...ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY 12Z. A COLD                  
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY               
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN VFR HOWEVER AS              
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MR                                                                 
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......MR                                                                 
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
113 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE MOST PART...SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 12 KNOTS OR                 
LESS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. THE KDTX VAD               
WIND PROFILE SHOWS 45 KNOTS AT 2K FEET. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE                  
LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE 40 TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN 1               
AND 2K FT AGL. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR ATOP THE SHALLOW                 
NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL               
WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASING BETWEEN 09Z AND                         
12Z...ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY 12Z. A COLD                  
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY               
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN VFR HOWEVER AS              
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008                            
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO THE               
EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO               
SLIDE UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS             
FURTHER AWAY...IT WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START             
TO RELAXING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOSS            
OF MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS               
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH THEN CIRRUS. WILL SEE               
CLOUD COVER INCREASE AND THICKEN A BIT BY DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                    
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD...AS A LINGERING SOUTHERLY                  
BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING                 
LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 40S.                                                     
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RACE NORTHEAST THROUGH                
JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTS               
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL                
ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH                
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...STALLING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON                 
THURSDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
WITHIN BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING.                                                 
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY            
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A             
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH             
TO THE WEST. IN FACT...THIS FRONT MAY EVEN RETREAT BACK SLIGHTLY TO             
THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS POSITIONING...WILL               
LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...WITH DRY               
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY            
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT MODELS HAVE BECOME RATHER CONSISTENT              
WITH THIS BASIC IDEA...SO FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE WITH IT.                      
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER               
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. AS               
THIS FEATURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO                 
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS             
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN              
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE TO ADD THUNDER TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT              
WILL LEAVE AS SHOWERS ATTM GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.                       
THE UPPER LOW THEN TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA              
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS               
OVER THE REGION AS UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THIS                 
REGIME. IT APPEARS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL            
BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE                 
FORMATION OF CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND A MORE FORCEFUL                
PUSH OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.                                               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST             
PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN               
THE 40S TO AROUND 50.                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SHORELINES INTO THIS              
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO.             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS               
UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. MARINE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL               
LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL THERE...AS COLD WATER TEMPERATURES LEAD TO HIGH            
THERMAL STABILITY IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH            
OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH               
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
710 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE SURFACE             
WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ACTUAL SURFACE WIND SPEEDS                
SHOULD DECREASE AS WELL. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE TURBULENCE DUE TO               
MECHANICAL MIXING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM BUFR AND RUC SOUNDINGS                    
INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS JUST ABOVE            
THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING /1000 TO 2000 FT                
AGL/. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.            
IN ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WILL                
INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS DURING THE                
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008                            
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO THE               
EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO               
SLIDE UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS             
FURTHER AWAY...IT WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START             
TO RELAXING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOSS            
OF MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS               
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH THEN CIRRUS. WILL SEE               
CLOUD COVER INCREASE AND THICKEN A BIT BY DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                    
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD...AS A LINGERING SOUTHERLY                  
BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING                 
LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 40S.                                                     
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RACE NORTHEAST THROUGH                
JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTS               
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL                
ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH                
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...STALLING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON                 
THURSDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
WITHIN BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING.                                                 
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY            
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A             
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH             
TO THE WEST. IN FACT...THIS FRONT MAY EVEN RETREAT BACK SLIGHTLY TO             
THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS POSITIONING...WILL               
LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...WITH DRY               
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY            
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT MODELS HAVE BECOME RATHER CONSISTENT              
WITH THIS BASIC IDEA...SO FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE WITH IT.                      
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER               
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. AS               
THIS FEATURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO                 
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS             
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN              
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE TO ADD THUNDER TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT              
WILL LEAVE AS SHOWERS ATTM GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.                       
THE UPPER LOW THEN TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA              
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS               
OVER THE REGION AS UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THIS                 
REGIME. IT APPEARS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL            
BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE                 
FORMATION OF CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND A MORE FORCEFUL                
PUSH OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.                                               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST             
PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE           
40S TO AROUND 50.                                                               
MARINE...                                                                       
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SHORELINES INTO THIS              
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO.             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS               
UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. MARINE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL               
LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL THERE...AS COLD WATER TEMPERATURES LEAD TO HIGH            
THERMAL STABILITY IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH            
OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH               
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY.                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY.                              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS               
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT             
THE SFC...A TIGHT SRLY GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES                
BETWEEN A 993 MB AVERAGED LOW PRES TROUGH OVER WRN MN/ERN SD AND A              
RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE SRN                
PLAINS HAS PRODUCED A PATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER KANSAS AND                    
NEBRASKA WHICH THE RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON BASED             
ON UPR LVL RH FIELDS. WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ERN              
HALF OF THE CWA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FCST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING PCPN CHCS (IF ANY) OVER THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                              
SFC AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW APPROACH TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN                
TODAY. WHAT LITTLE PCPN THERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO             
BE BEHIND IT. SOME OF THE MODELS....PARTICULARLY THE GFS...HAVE                 
INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST IN LOW LEVELS WHEN COMPARED WITH RAOB                 
SITES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REGIONAL GEM                 
APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE DRY LOW-LEVELS THE BEST AND HAVE                
SIDED WITH ITS DRIER SOLN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. ECMWF               
AND UKMET ALSO SUPPORT DRY SOLN. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO PULL PCPN               
TONIGHT AND THU ACROSS THE CWA. A JET STREAK AND ASSOC 700-500 FGEN             
SEEM TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE            
SRN PLAINS. RUC MODEL HAS CIRRUS MOVING UP BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY               
ALTHOUGH IT ALSO SUGGEST CLOUDS COULD THIN AT SOME POINT IN THE                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING AND BREEZY             
SSW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO              
THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPR MI. TEMPS WILL             
STAY COOLER (LOW 60S INLAND TO UPR 40S NEAR THE LAKE) OVER THE EAST             
HALF DUE TO MODERATING ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                         
MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE MOVING UP ALONG STALLED OUT JUST E OF THE FCST            
AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. AGAIN PREFER BLEND OF ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN              
WHICH CONFINES A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF AT BEST TO FAR SE AND ERN UPR               
MI. WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THESE COUNTIES THU NIGHT              
INTO FRI. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON HANDLING OF CLOSED LOW WHICH FORMS              
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE GFS AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM WANT TO LIFT              
CLOSED LOW AND NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT...            
WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND GLOBAL GEM GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CLOSED LOW            
AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE              
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. NCEP PREFERRED THE FARTHER              
SOUTH SOLN SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AT               
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DID BRING A BIT MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS INTO THE                
SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODELED ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC (VISIT                          
HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI IS ALMOST            
ALL AT 32F...MEANING IT IS READY TO OR ALREADY MELTING. GIVEN THE               
WARM AND BREEZY NIGHT WE HAVE HAD...SOME MELTING HAD TO HAVE TAKEN              
PLACE. TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER MELTING DAY THAN YESTERDAY...                
THANKS TO THE WARMED UP SNOWPACK...CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS...WARMER              
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                    
MARCHING ACROSS MN. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FOR              
TONIGHT...CONCERN EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE RIVERS                    
STARTING EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY THU. YESTERDAY                  
COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE                  
FORECASTS INDICATE THE TAHQUAMENON...PRESQUE ISLE AND MIDDLE BRANCH             
OF THE ESCANABA RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND.              
OTHER RIVERS TO WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME...FORD AND STURGEON RIVER              
NEAR ALSTON. THANKFULLY VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND SO THE ONLY FORM OF WATER HEADING INTO THE RIVERS IS                
THAT OF SNOWMELT. HOWEVER...EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF            
A HEAVIER RAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD UP TO AN INCH                 
TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE               
00Z ECMWF. THIS HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY WARM               
AND MOIST AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO            
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. MANY OTHER EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR             
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETUP.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CEIGS AND VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. COLD                 
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL SLIDE ACROSS CMX 00-01Z...AND SAW                  
03-05Z...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND BRIEFLY BECOMING WESTERLY BEFORE HIGH              
PRESSURE LIGHTENS AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR ON-SHORE FLOW                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AHEAD OF A                
COLD FRONT CROSSING MN. AGAIN...STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE                 
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING                      
CONDITIONS WITH THE SOUTH WIND MAY RESULT IN FREQUENT GALE FORCE                
GUSTS IN THE NEARSHORE FROM MUNISING TO WHITEFISH POINT...AND HAVE              
EXTENDED THE PREVIOUS GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE               
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.             
RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS MAXED AT 25 KT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE              
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MORE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK PRESSURES RISE BEHIND            
IT. WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 25 KT ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
IN FROM THE PLAINS. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OR            
CLOSE BY IN NE ONTARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING WINDS AT 25 KT             
OR LESS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ250-251.                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
HYDROLOGY...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
600 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS               
AND A RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT             
THE SFC...A TIGHT SRLY GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES                
BETWEEN A 993 MB AVERAGED LOW PRES TROUGH OVER WRN MN/ERN SD AND A              
RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE SRN                
PLAINS HAS PRODUCED A PATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER KANSAS AND                    
NEBRASKA WHICH THE RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON BASED             
ON UPR LVL RH FIELDS. WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ERN              
HALF OF THE CWA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FCST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING PCPN CHCS (IF ANY) OVER THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                              
SFC AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW APPROACH TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN                
TODAY. WHAT LITTLE PCPN THERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO             
BE BEHIND IT. SOME OF THE MODELS....PARTICULARLY THE GFS...HAVE                 
INITIALIZED WAY TOO MOIST IN LOW LEVELS WHEN COMPARED WITH RAOB                 
SITES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REGIONAL GEM                 
APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE DRY LOW-LEVELS THE BEST AND HAVE                
SIDED WITH ITS DRIER SOLN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. ECMWF               
AND UKMET ALSO SUPPORT DRY SOLN. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO PULL PCPN               
TONIGHT AND THU ACROSS THE CWA. A JET STREAK AND ASSOC 700-500 FGEN             
SEEM TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE            
SRN PLAINS. RUC MODEL HAS CIRRUS MOVING UP BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY               
ALTHOUGH IT ALSO SUGGEST CLOUDS COULD THIN AT SOME POINT IN THE                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING AND BREEZY             
SSW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO              
THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPR MI. TEMPS WILL             
STAY COOLER (LOW 60S INLAND TO UPR 40S NEAR THE LAKE) OVER THE EAST             
HALF DUE TO MODERATING ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.                         
MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE MOVING UP ALONG STALLED OUT JUST E OF THE FCST            
AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. AGAIN PREFER BLEND OF ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN              
WHICH CONFINES A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF AT BEST TO FAR SE AND ERN UPR               
MI. WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THESE COUNTIES THU NIGHT              
INTO FRI. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON HANDLING OF CLOSED LOW WHICH FORMS              
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE GFS AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM WANT TO LIFT              
CLOSED LOW AND NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SAT...            
WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND GLOBAL GEM GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CLOSED LOW            
AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE              
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. NCEP PREFERRED THE FARTHER              
SOUTH SOLN SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AT               
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DID BRING A BIT MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS INTO THE                
SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODELED ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC (VISIT                          
HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI IS ALMOST            
ALL AT 32F...MEANING IT IS READY TO OR ALREADY MELTING. GIVEN THE               
WARM AND BREEZY NIGHT WE HAVE HAD...SOME MELTING HAD TO HAVE TAKEN              
PLACE. TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER MELTING DAY THAN YESTERDAY...                
THANKS TO THE WARMED UP SNOWPACK...CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS...WARMER              
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                    
MARCHING ACROSS MN. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FOR              
TONIGHT...CONCERN EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE RIVERS                    
STARTING EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY THU. YESTERDAY                  
COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE                  
FORECASTS INDICATE THE TAHQUAMENON...PRESQUE ISLE AND MIDDLE BRANCH             
OF THE ESCANABA RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND.              
OTHER RIVERS TO WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME...FORD AND STURGEON RIVER              
NEAR ALSTON. THANKFULLY VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND SO THE ONLY FORM OF WATER HEADING INTO THE RIVERS IS                
THAT OF SNOWMELT. HOWEVER...EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF            
A HEAVIER RAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD UP TO AN INCH                 
TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE               
00Z ECMWF. THIS HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY WARM               
AND MOIST AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO            
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. MANY OTHER EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR             
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETUP.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER              
VALLEY WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE                         
PERIOD...EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE THIS               
EVENING. MAIN ISSUE IS WINDS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LOW LEVEL             
INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED...WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT.                      
THUS...LLWS WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS FOR BOTH SITES. DAYTIME HEATING             
IN THE MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT THE INVERSION AND RESULT IN GUSTY                 
WINDS AT BOTH SITES. WIND GUSTS MAY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AT                  
SAW...BUT AT CMX WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD             
CONTINUE THERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED WEST WIND.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AHEAD OF A                
COLD FRONT CROSSING MN. AGAIN...STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE                 
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING                      
CONDITIONS WITH THE SOUTH WIND MAY RESULT IN FREQUENT GALE FORCE                
GUSTS IN THE NEARSHORE FROM MUNISING TO WHITEFISH POINT...AND HAVE              
EXTENDED THE PREVIOUS GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE               
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.             
RIGHT NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS MAXED AT 25 KT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE              
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MORE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK PRESSURES RISE BEHIND            
IT. WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 25 KT ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
IN FROM THE PLAINS. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OR            
CLOSE BY IN NE ONTARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING WINDS AT 25 KT             
OR LESS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ250-251.                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
HYDROLOGY...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
218 AM EDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS               
AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE                  
SFC...A TIGHT GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO              
THE NRN LAKES BTWN A 987 MB LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE OVER              
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE WAA PATTERN HAS BROUGHT A LARGE PATCHY OF              
HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI WHICH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO REDUCE INSOLATION            
AND MIXING DEPTH. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHT TO 900-875              
MB AT KRHI/KCMX/KSAW. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING TEMPS HAD NOT                   
CLIMBED BEYOND THE MID 50S AND WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED               
AOB 40 MPH.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                           
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH TO PERSIST LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE 45 TO 55 KT 925-850 MB WIND             
MAX OVER MN INTO NW WI SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.                            
HOWEVER...DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AT MOST                
LOCATIONS BY AROUND 00Z. DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS THAT OFTEN DO NOT                  
DECOUPLE SUCH AS LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR                             
IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON AND MARQUETTE COULD SEE CONTINUE STRONG GUSTS                
INTO THE LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY LCL EFFECTS THE ADVISORY            
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO 23Z. WINDS/MIXING WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WELL                
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS TO AROUND 40 INLAND AND THE MID AND UPPER            
40S IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES UPPER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE             
SIGNIFICANT 800-600 MB FGEN REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA THE FCST                    
CONTINUES ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OUT WARMER ADDITIONAL               
SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SSW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TEMPS SHOULD            
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS SOME RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD              
STAGE THOUGH ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. DID COORDINATE WITH               
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER THIS MORNING...THEIR LATEST FORECAST                  
INDICATES THE TAHQUAMENON...PRESQUE ISLE AND MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE               
ESCANABA RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND. OTHER               
RIVERS TO WATCH ARE THE MICHIGAMME...FORD AND STURGEON RIVER NEAR               
ALSTON. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IN THE FORECAST...THE SNOWMELT IS               
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM               
TODAY...SNOWMELT WILL NOT BE DRAMATIC DUE TO SNOWPACK                           
TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE WEST HALF...REMAINING JUST BELOW 32                   
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR                
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE             
IN THE 60S...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WINDS WILL REMAIN             
STRONG. AS A RESULT...SHOULD START SEEING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES               
STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...                            
MAIN CONCERN IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY PCPN.                                      
SFC FRONT CLOSES IN ON FAR WESTERN UPR MI BY 00Z THU. DRY AIRMASS               
AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRE FRONTAL PCPN. FOR THE MOST               
PART EXPECT PCPN ON WED EVENING TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OVR                   
ONTARIO WHERE MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/H85-H5 Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE/H3 DIVERGENCE ARE MAXIMIZED. AFTER FRONT PUSHES                     
THROUGH...BETTER DYNAMICS PUSH ACROSS CWA LATER WED NIGHT.                      
CONCENTRATED DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR               
PCPN. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS JUST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THOUGH.               
ALTHOUGH SFC FRONT SHIFTS TO FAR EASTERN UPR MI BY 12Z THU...THREAT             
OF SOME RAIN HANGS IN OVR EAST HALF OF CWA AS H85-H7 MOISTURE                   
STREAMS UP ALONG LINGERING H85 FRONT. SINCE TROUGH IS STILL                     
OVERHEAD...H3 JET LIFTS OUT OF CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND               
HELPS ENHANCE LIFTING ALONG THE H85 FRONT. AT THIS POINT...MODELS               
DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF THE H85 FRONT AND RESULTANT STRIPE OF                  
MODERATE QPF. NAM/GFS KEEP THE PCPN OVR ERN CWA WHILE                           
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN KEEP QPF OVR WI AND LWR MI THU NIGHT INTO FRI.             
SINCE SIGNAL FOR PCPN IS PRESENT ON ALL MODELS ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS            
DIFFERENT...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN IN OVR SE CWA THU NIGHT.                
UPR LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN              
FEATURE IMPACTING UPR MI IS TROUGHING FM CNTRL CANADA INTO WESTERN              
CONUS. OVERALL...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT             
WEEK...ESPECIALLY INLAND AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY DIP BLO NORMAL AS                
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY. BY FRI...PREVAILING WIND IS FM THE ESE AS                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FM HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC WHILE A SFC TROUGH               
PERSISTS OVR THE PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH OVR WESTERN CONUS              
WILL EDGE EAST AND BRING A FRONT INTO UPR LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
OUTSIDE OF THIS FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE              
THAT COULD BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN TO UPR LAKES IS A CUTOFF LOW              
THAT FORMS OVR OHIO VALLEY ON FRI. LATEST GFS AND NAM NOW TRENDING              
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPR LOW...AND NOW BOTH ARE BRINGING A SFC                
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES FOR SAT. LATEST ECMWF BUCKS ITS PREVIOUS RUNS             
BY INDICATING QPF OVR MOST OF UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. NOT QUITE              
CONVINCED YET AS THIS REPRESENTS A SUDDEN CHANGE FM PREVIOUS ECWMF.             
LET THE DRY FORECAST GO FOR NOW...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUDS FRI NIGHT             
AND SAT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER              
VALLEY WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE                         
PERIOD...EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE THIS               
EVENING. MAIN ISSUE IS WINDS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LOW LEVEL             
INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED...WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT.                      
THUS...LLWS WILL REMAIN IN THE TAFS FOR BOTH SITES. DAYTIME HEATING             
IN THE MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT THE INVERSION AND RESULT IN GUSTY                 
WINDS AT BOTH SITES. WIND GUSTS MAY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AT                  
SAW...BUT AT CMX WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD             
CONTINUE THERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED WEST WIND.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STIFF SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING GALE STRENGTH WILL CONTINUE THIS              
EVENING WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN AN APPROACHING LOW PRES AND             
HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...WARM AIR OVERRIDING COLD            
LAKE TEMPS WILL CREATE A STABLE PROFILE AND PROHIBIT A WIDESPREAD               
GALE EVENT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SUSTAINED 30 KNOT            
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING             
SOUTHERLY WINDS 35-40 KT...GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK OVER               
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                   
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY             
DIMINISH TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS BY THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS                   
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE            
WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING MIZ002-004-005-009.                 
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING LSZ240-241.               
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING LSZ250-251.                         
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
HYDROLOGY...DJP                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
909 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH              
CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. NAM 295K THETA               
SURFACE SHOWING STRONG UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. THIS IS                 
ALONG A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENESIS IN               
THE 600-700 MB LAYER IS SHOWN IN THIS SAME AREA. SOME LIGHTNING                 
STRIKES AS WELL NEAR KRST AND KSLB AT MID AFTERNOON. RUC BEST LI                
CAPTURES THE INSTABILITY WELL AND SHOWS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE               
KEAU AREA VULNERABLE FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING.                                  
THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT WHICH LASTS THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY MORNING.                       
HENCE...A DECREASE IN POPS SHOWN. THEN THE UPGLIDE RETURNS FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR ABOUT THE SAME AREA WITH LIKELY TO                  
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A TIME. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW                 
PRESSURE ALOFT ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CO/NM THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT TO OUR SOUTH              
AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING WEST CENTRAL WI IN                 
THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH PART OF SATURDAY. THE WHOLE PATTERN IS                 
BACKED UP DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE WEST ATLANTIC AND A                   
BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GREENLAND. SLOW                 
MOVEMENT ARE THE KEY WORDS FOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.                             
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST DAY WEATHERWISE IF THINGS CREEP ALONG AS              
FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE                        
SOUTHEAST AS A MAMMOTH UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES                
BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL                
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE                 
LOW IS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN              
CWA BY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED                
WITH THE FROPA.                                                                 
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD IS UNSETTLED. BASICALLY...THE               
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE                  
SHORT WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BOUTS OF                     
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SHOWER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND                     
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
THE RAIN/CLOUDS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN                 
AREAS WILL HOLD THINGS BACK A LITTLE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA                  
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
OVER EASTERN KS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS               
BY LATE FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST FOR KMSP...KRNH                 
AND KEAU...ONLY AT KEAU IS PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT              
06Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
928 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...REMOVED THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG. RAISED MAX TEMPS A                
BIT WHERE MORE SOLAR IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW THIRD OF                
FA. STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO                
THE SE PORTION OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC IS GOING                  
DRY AS IS THE 06Z NAM. HAVE LEFT THIS AREA AS IS.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE                   
RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST                     
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN U.P. BACK INTO NORTHEAST                
KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THEN REMAIN NEARLY               
STATIONARY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. NORTHWEST                  
WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY THE PARK FALLS...HAYWARD...AND GLIDDEN                 
AREAS...WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THROUGH               
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND THIS               
EVENING...BUT AS ARX POINTED OUT EARLIER IT HAD INITIALIZED TOO                 
MOIST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS HAS A TIGHT                  
THERMAL GRADIENT A BIT FURTHER NORTH OF WHERE THE NAM AND ECMWF                 
PUT IT...AND AS A RESULT HAS THE MAX 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA                   
FURTHER NORTH. AREA RADARS SHOW SOME RETURNS MOVING THROUGH                     
SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT              
THE GFS MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS EVEN IF THE RETURNS ARE NOT                  
REACHING THE GROUND YET.                                                        
FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT BACKED                
OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIP DUE TO THE DRIER AIR. PORTIONS OF                    
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF LIKELY CHANCES FOR                   
RAIN...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS                  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.                                                     
MOST MODELS AGREE ON DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO                    
FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING STRENGTHENS SOME. THE GFS ALSO                
BACKS THE 700MB WIND QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE                  
OVERDONE...AND THIS HELPS CREATE THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THE                  
700MB FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS SOME OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WEAKER                   
LIFT.                                                                           
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY              
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND ON SATURDAY INTO FAR EASTERN                     
MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY                 
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING KEEPING AREAS NEAR THE               
LAKE COOLER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND                
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
AVIATION...THROUGH 16Z...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLD LIFR                      
VSBYS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KHIB TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE                
WINDS AROUND 5 KT AND VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. AFT 21Z...MID LEVEL                
CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR -RA SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NWRD THROUGH                      
WISCONSIN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF SITE AND EWRD THIS                    
EVENING THRU END OF PRD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  33  50  30 /  10  10  10  10                                           
INL  57  28  61  31 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  60  30  58  35 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  56  28  54  31 /  20  10  30  10                                           
ASX  56  30  51  32 /  10  10  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GSF/CANNON                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
928 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE                 
FA ROUGHLY FROM KINL SWWD TO KPWC. -SHRA ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND                
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT STILL                
ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. LATEST RUC KEEPS THE BULK OF THE LIFT                 
AND -SHRA OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE FA. HAVE MADE SOME                  
ADJUSTMENTS AND REMOVED THE -SHRA CHANCE FROM NW WI TO NEAT THE                 
TWIN PORTS. REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION AS THE MID LEVEL                   
INSTABILITY HAS WEAKENED. MADE SOME TEMP TWEAKS AS WELL WITH SW                 
FLOW AND A BIT MORE SOLAR PRIOR TO FROPA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...AT 07Z A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR                            
KFGN...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS WERE INCREASING IN              
COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH              
DAKOTA. SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AS WELL...AND                 
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL FORECAST THE MOST QPF OVER MY NORTHWEST                   
CWA...AND WE INCREASED POPS THERE TODAY. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LOWER...AND                 
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.     
HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER              
40S TO LOWER 50S IN SPOTS AS OF 08Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY WELL AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 03Z...AND WE ONLY                 
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN WENT DRY.                 
LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH                
FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW A NICE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT                      
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY              
THURSDAY MORNING...SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST THEN...THEN ADDED A                   
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED IT INTO FRIDAY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE QPF              
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LIFT IN IMPRESSIVE BY AFTERNOON.                             
FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR KFGN...SOUTHWEST                
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 2 AM. THIS FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NEAR                
CRANE LAKE TO MORA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY EARLY                        
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CLEAR THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN                
BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH                 
WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT NEARS...THEN GUST FOR A SHORT TIME JUST              
AFTER IT PASSES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT BE                
MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...CRANE LAKE...BIGFORK                 
AND AND ORR. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD THIS MORNING...AND WILL RISE                
QUICKLY OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THE               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON OVER                      
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE FRONT.                                
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. LIFT         
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY            
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY              
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT TODAY AND THIS            
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT                    
TONIGHT. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN                
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY THIS AFTERNOON             
OR EVENING. LLWS IS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE                  
DECOUPLED THIS MORNING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  59  33  54  30 /  30  20  10  10                                           
INL  51  29  56  29 /  70  20  10  10                                           
BRD  57  32  57  30 /  40  10  10  10                                           
HYR  62  32  55  27 /  10  20  20  10                                           
ASX  60  33  53  29 /  10  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GSF/CANNON                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                     
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA              
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS OBSERVATION STATIONS CONTINUE TO             
FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. PROFILER AND VAD WIND PROFILERS                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW 45-55 KNOTS OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS LLJ              
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. RUC SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING A                     
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ARE THROUGH THE                   
MORNING WITH THE NAM CURRENTLY UNDERFORECASTING LOW-LVL WIND                    
PROFILES. WITH STRONG SFC WARMING...BELIEVE WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE             
TO MIX DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM...HOWEVER MAY LIKELY            
BE CANCELED EARLIER THAN THAT EXPIRATION TIME.                                  
DUX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/459 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                                                    
ISSUES ABOUND IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A            
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE PATTERN DOMINATING THE CONUS WITH A DEEPENING             
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS HAS                       
MOVED WELL PAST MISSOURI ALLOWING A STRONG DEEP SOUTHWEST JET TO                
MOVE IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING                    
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE             
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE              
REGION QUITE TIGHT OVERNIGHT. YESTERDAY SAW A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY               
LAYER PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WHICH                 
HELPED TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE OVERNIGHT                
NIGHT HOURS HAVE SEEN EVEN STRONGER WINDS AS THE MECHANICAL MIXING              
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WIND HAS PREVENTED THE STANDARD                  
NOCTURNAL SURFACE WIND DECOUPLING.                                              
FOR TODAY...PART OF THE WEST CONUS TROUGH WILL EJECT AS A SHORTWAVE             
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CARRY THE SURFACE LOW...THAT             
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO TIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS...NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL              
THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AS A                 
RESULT...PUSHING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW            
LEVEL JET. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A               
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION BECAUSE OF THE              
CONTINUING STRONG WIND OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET            
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS MORNING...I ALLOW THE             
BORDER REGION ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. FARTHER EAST I HAVE KEPT               
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z...REALLY BANKING ON THE LATE MORNING TO                
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS BEING THE PRIME TIME FOR THE STRONGEST                 
WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ADVISORY IS              
NOT GREAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES               
NORTHEAST. SO...THE DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO CONTINUALLY EVALUATE THE             
NEED FOR THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA              
TODAY.                                                                          
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE                   
THROUGH THE DAY AS MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVE NORTH ON THE                 
SOUTH WIND. SO WHILE THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE              
35% TODAY...THE CONTINUED BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DISCOURAGE              
ANY BURNING OUTDOORS.                                                           
ATTENTION KNOW TURNS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND CONVECTION              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL ARRIVE             
IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE RESULT OF THE SOUTHERN END            
OF THE CURRENT WEST CONUS TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A DYNAMIC CUTOFF             
LOW AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND            
NAM-WRF ARE LOOKING RATHER SIMILAR...BUT PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ALSO             
SIMILAR BUT FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF. THE GFS AND            
NAM-WRF BOTH WANT TO LIFT THE CUTOFF A BIT FARTHER NORTH...NOMINALLY            
KEEPING IT IN CONTACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELIEVE THE BEHAVIOR            
ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF...WHERE THE CUTOFF REMAINS MORE DETACHED                
FROM THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IS MORE REALISTIC. HOWEVER...                   
REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING BETTER              
AND BETTER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE              
BUMPED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME               
HOURS OF THURSDAY AS A RESULT. FOCUSED THE DAY TIME CATEGORICAL POPS            
ALONG NEAR THE IOWA BORDER...WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO             
TO CONCENTRATED ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT. FOR              
THE THURSDAY NIGHT HOURS THE BEST ACTIVE LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE             
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE CONVECTIVE             
ELEMENTS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW                 
LEAVES THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL NORTH OF THE                 
FRONT.                                                                          
CUTTER                                                                          
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING BACK EDGE OF 50KT LLJ JUST NOW STARTING TO             
PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE STRONG GUSTY SOUTH              
WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS MORE BEFORE BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT BY MID                   
AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL              
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED            
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW.                                                      
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT                
MVFR CIGS AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.              
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER TAF SITES IN THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY                
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY AFFECTING STJ IN THE LATE EVENING. SHOWERS             
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.                
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.                  
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-               
     MOZ013-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037-MOZ043-MOZ053.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-               
     MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-                   
     MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-                   
     MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ054.                                                      
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-               
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1006 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA              
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS OBSERVATION STATIONS CONTINUE TO             
FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. PROFILER AND VAD WIND PROFILERS                   
CONTINUE TO SHOW 45-55 KNOTS OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS LLJ              
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. RUC SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING A                     
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ARE THROUGH THE                   
MORNING WITH THE NAM CURRENTLY UNDERFORECASTING LOW-LVL WIND                    
PROFILES. WITH STRONG SFC WARMING...BELIEVE WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE             
TO MIX DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM...HOWEVER MAY LIKELY            
BE CANCELED EARLIER THAN THAT EXPIRATION TIME.                                  
DUX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                                             
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
STRONG EARLY MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION             
HAVE CALMED JUST A TAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...OUR                   
PROFILER NETWORK IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS BRINGING 50            
TO 65 KNOT WINDS AS LOW AS 925-MB. THE ONLY THING HOLDING THESE                 
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME IS THE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE             
WINDS THANKS TO A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER                 
MIXING BEGINS OCCURRING AFTER SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD JUMP UP            
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA QUICKLY ACROSS THE KANSAS MISSOURI REGION. HAVE            
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI               
THROUGH 15Z.                                                                    
CUTTER                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
/459 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                                                    
ISSUES ABOUND IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A            
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE PATTERN DOMINATING THE CONUS WITH A DEEPENING             
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS HAS                       
MOVED WELL PAST MISSOURI ALLOWING A STRONG DEEP SOUTHWEST JET TO                
MOVE IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING                    
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE             
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE              
REGION QUITE TIGHT OVERNIGHT. YESTERDAY SAW A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY               
LAYER PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WHICH                 
HELPED TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE OVERNIGHT                
NIGHT HOURS HAVE SEEN EVEN STRONGER WINDS AS THE MECHANICAL MIXING              
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WIND HAS PREVENTED THE STANDARD                  
NOCTURNAL SURFACE WIND DECOUPLING.                                              
FOR TODAY...PART OF THE WEST CONUS TROUGH WILL EJECT AS A SHORTWAVE             
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CARRY THE SURFACE LOW...THAT             
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO TIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS...NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL              
THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AS A                 
RESULT...PUSHING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW            
LEVEL JET. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A               
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION BECAUSE OF THE              
CONTINUING STRONG WIND OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET            
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS MORNING...I ALLOW THE             
BORDER REGION ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. FARTHER EAST I HAVE KEPT               
THE ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z...REALLY BANKING ON THE LATE MORNING TO                
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS BEING THE PRIME TIME FOR THE STRONGEST                 
WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ADVISORY IS              
NOT GREAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES               
NORTHEAST. SO...THE DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO CONTINUALLY EVALUATE THE             
NEED FOR THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA              
TODAY.                                                                          
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE                   
THROUGH THE DAY AS MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVE NORTH ON THE                 
SOUTH WIND. SO WHILE THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE              
35% TODAY...THE CONTINUED BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DISCOURAGE              
ANY BURNING OUTDOORS.                                                           
ATTENTION KNOW TURNS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND CONVECTION              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL ARRIVE             
IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE RESULT OF THE SOUTHERN END            
OF THE CURRENT WEST CONUS TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A DYNAMIC CUTOFF             
LOW AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND            
NAM-WRF ARE LOOKING RATHER SIMILAR...BUT PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ALSO             
SIMILAR BUT FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF. THE GFS AND            
NAM-WRF BOTH WANT TO LIFT THE CUTOFF A BIT FARTHER NORTH...NOMINALLY            
KEEPING IT IN CONTACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELIEVE THE BEHAVIOR            
ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF...WHERE THE CUTOFF REMAINS MORE DETACHED                
FROM THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IS MORE REALISTIC. HOWEVER...                   
REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING BETTER              
AND BETTER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE              
BUMPED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME               
HOURS OF THURSDAY AS A RESULT. FOCUSED THE DAY TIME CATEGORICAL POPS            
ALONG NEAR THE IOWA BORDER...WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO             
TO CONCENTRATED ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT. FOR              
THE THURSDAY NIGHT HOURS THE BEST ACTIVE LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE             
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE CONVECTIVE             
ELEMENTS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW                 
LEAVES THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL NORTH OF THE                 
FRONT.                                                                          
CUTTER                                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CORRECTING WSR-88D VWP AND PROFILER WINDS FROM AVIARY                           
CONTAMINATION...READINGS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK JIVE              
WELL WITH RECENT ON-BOARD AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS FROM KMCI AND KTOP.             
WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT                   
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KNOTS COULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER AS              
MECHANICAL MIXING COMMENCES OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.                              
BESIDES PRIMARY WIND CONCERN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD                    
DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH                              
APPROACHES...BECOMING LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.                                        
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG/BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT               
MVFR CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND STEADILY             
LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE ONE OR MORE                       
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BANDS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH EMBEDDED                
CONVECTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE NOT CERTAIN             
ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY PROBS            
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-               
     MOZ013-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037-MOZ043-MOZ053.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-               
     MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-                   
     MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-                   
     MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ054.                                                      
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-               
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                      
$$                                                                              
DUX                                                                             
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
945 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND                      
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER N              
CENTRAL US. INITIAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PCPN BAND CONFINED TO FAR NE            
FA AND SHOULD EXIT IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA                     
APPROACHING SW QUARTER OF FA FROM CENTRAL DAKOTAS. AS MID LEVEL                 
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY RUC SHOWING DRYING FROM NW-SE SO AND                
PCPN WITH THIS BAND LIKELY ONLY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FA. ALSO NOT SURE            
HOW THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS MOVES INTO ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE IN            
WAKE OF INITIAL WAVE. WILL MAKE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS KEEP SOME MID              
RANGE POPS GOING ACROSS SOUTH. SOME THINNING IN CIGS ACROSS NW FA               
OTHERWISE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TO AFFECT FA TODAY. WITH ANTICIPATED            
CLOUDS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MAKE                
CLOUD TREND ADJUSTMENTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PCPN CONFINED TO SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST            
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1122 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED SHORT TERM GRIDS THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT TEMP/DP                 
TRENDS BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. APPEARS 12Z NAM HAS               
BETTER HANDLE ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT COMPARED WITH THE SLOWER RUC/GFS.             
STILL APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE                   
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS                           
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING IS A              
COMPLICATED MESS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST                  
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS                 
JUST NORTH OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE                  
WERE IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING... CONTRASTING SHARPLY                 
WITH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THAT COVERED NEARLY ALL THE MAIN BODY              
OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS              
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY... AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA                
WILL SEE THEIR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING... AS TEMPERATURES              
DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
A VERY STRONG CAP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN                    
DRAMATICALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT STORM                 
DEVELOPMENT... EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT... UNTIL AROUND                  
NOON OR PERHAPS A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CAP OUT                
OF THE WAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM                
NORTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME               
A LINEAR COMPLEX FAIRLY QUICKLY... AND MOVE AT A SLOW TO MODERATE               
PACE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR IN A FEW AREAS... BUT AT THIS               
TIME THE PATTERN LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD                
OR MAJOR FLOODING.                                                              
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR YET AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE                   
REGION... GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND NORTHERLY               
BEHIND IT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS MAY                 
OCCUR IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN... AND THIS                
POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AT THIS TIME... IT               
APPEARS THAT THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE PANHANDLES AND                 
WESTERN KANSAS.                                                                 
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOK FAIRLY QUIET... BUT NEXT WEEK PROMISES              
TO BE QUITE A RIDE IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT. BOTH MODELS                
DEPICT A FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WAVING BACK AND                  
FORTH... AND LOTS OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT....                            
FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD GFS MOS INITIALIZATION LEFT A LOT TO BE                 
DESIRED... AS THE SHORT-TERM GFS DOES NOT APPEAR TO PICK UP                     
SUFFICIENTLY ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                 
MANY HAND EDITS WERE MADE TO THE FIRST TWO PERIODS AS A RESULT...               
ESPECIALLY REGARDING POPS AND WEATHER. A LESS-SIGNIFICANT                       
ALTERATION INVOLVED ADDING LOW POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                    
MONDAY PERIOD.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  43  66  42 /  50  50   0   0                              
HOBART OK         61  41  68  42 /  20  30   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  46  71  47 /  30  40   0   0                              
GAGE OK           48  37  69  38 /  50  20   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  61  41 /  60  60  10  10                              
DURANT OK         73  50  65  48 /  40  90  20   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1000 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WORKING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO KORC/KSPW                
AREAS IN RESPONSE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONT A LITTLE FASTER THIS            
MORNING. CONTINUE TO SEE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND                 
NORTHEAST...AND 12Z RUNS OF NAM AND RUC STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME               
SATURATING AIRMASS BELOW 750-800MB NW OF LINE FROM KYKN-KLYV-KRWF.              
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH GOING FORECAST AS FAR AS PRECIP AREA...SO               
DID NOT ADJUST AREA OF PRECIP MENTION...BUT DID BOOST POPS IN THE               
SOUTHEAST INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE AND ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS TO               
THE NORTH FASTER THIS MORNING.                                                  
CIRRUS STARTING TO THIN ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF CWA...SO WARMER TEMPS             
LOOK OK THERE AND DID NOT ADJUST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED               
BACK A FEW DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST AS RAIN BEGAN AND DID COOL OFF              
HIGHS IN THIS AREA. BUT WILL BE TOUGH TO RISE WITH THE PERSISTENT               
RAIN AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOSTLY VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL WARM            
FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL -SHRA AT SUX AND ACROSS MUCH OF NW IA             
THIS MORNING...DWINDLING TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON.             
RAIN COULD PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. FARTHER WEST              
TOWARDS HON...ALL VFR AND NO PRECIPITATION ONLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.             
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS             
INTO CNTRL SD WHERE MIXED LAYER WILL BE DEEPER.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
PRETTY VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE SRN RCKYS...AND A SFC               
WRMFNT S OF THIS AREA IN CENTRAL KS TO EXTREME SERN IA. JET STREAM              
DYNAMICS ARE STRONG THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA WITH A JET STREAK                 
DEPARTING NEWD THRU MN...PLACING THIS AREA IN THE RR QUAD OF THE                
JET. THUS QUITE AN OVERRUNING PATTERN HAS SETUP. AREA NWS RADARS ARE            
CURRENTLY LIT UP LIKE A CHRISTMAS TREE TO THE S OF THIS FA WITH                 
EMBEDDED TS. PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN OUR FAR SRN             
FA DENOTING WHERE THE H7 CONVERGENCE AXIS IS. THE CONVECTION TO OUR             
S IS STREAMING NEWD...AND SEE NO REASON WHY HIGH RAIN CHCS ARE NOT              
WARRANTED IN OUR SE CORNER. IN FACT...I MAY BE TOO LOW ON THE POPS              
AROUND SIOUX CITY AND SPENCER AND WL MONITOR THAT EARLY THIS                    
MORNING...IN CASE I HAVE TO BUMP THEM UP TO LIKELY. BUT HEADING N               
AND NEWD FM A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER IA LINE...THE LOW LEVELS BECOME             
INCREASINGLY DRY. SO AM EXPECTING THE PCPN TO HIT A BRICK                       
WALL...COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS               
BOTTLED UP IN NW IA ALL DAY. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE INDEED TRICKY OVER             
OUR EAST. THE CONVECTION HAS CREATED PLENTY OF DENSE CI THRU THE                
ENTIRE FA. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME OF THE CI WL ERODE FOR THE             
AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS OUR WRN HALF. BUT CLOUD COVER WL LIKELY LINGER             
THRU OUR ERN HALF. SO KEPT DIURNAL TEMP SPREADS PRETTY SMALL TODAY              
THRU MUCH OF NW IA. HOWEVER IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR FA...AROUND                    
KYKN..KFSD AND KBKX...I CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING TEMPS A FAIR             
AMOUNT HOPING THAT SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE WL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.              
THEN IN OUR WRN FA...MODEL SNDGS SHOW A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER                   
ATMOSPHERE...IN FACT WELL ABV H85...SO DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE                    
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...THINGS               
SHOULD WARM UP A FAIR AMOUNT. SPEAKING OF OUR WEST...THE GFS SHOWS              
SOME BRISK WINDS OFF THE SFC AND AM A BIT WORRIED THAT SOME OF THOSE            
MAY MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE PUT SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS IN             
OUR GRIDS AND ZFP FOR OUR W. AS A SIDENOTE...NOTICED THAT THE LATEST            
09Z KYKN OBS SHOWS 22 MPH WINDS...VIRGA SHOWER EVAPORATING.                     
TONIGHT DISPLAYS A RATHER STEADY STATE CONDITION...AND DREW A RARE              
12 HR POP/WX GRID FOR OUR EAST BECAUSE OF IT. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO               
WRAP UP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVG VERY SLOWLY EWD. QG FORCING                
STAYS RATHER ABUNDANT IN OUR EAST WITH THE H7 FRONT REMAINING IN NW             
IA. THEREFORE BELIEVE RAIN WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SE                   
QUAD...AND AGAIN...WL HAVE TO WATCH THE SIOUX CITY AND SPENCER AREAS            
TO SEE IF WE ARE TOO LOW ON THE POPS. ANTICIPATING CLOUDS OVER OUR              
ERN TWO THIRDS TONIGHT SO KEPT MIN TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO ABV                  
GUIDANCE READINGS.                                                              
LATE TONIGHT...A BIT OF TROWALING BEGINS TO WRAP UP BACK INTO THE               
ERN HALF OF THE FA. THIS TROWALING CONTS ON FRIDAY IN OUR EAST ALONG            
WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER -DIV Q PRESENT...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG              
SLOWLY INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO. BUT WE BEGIN TO LOSE OUR MID LVL                 
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WRAPPED SYSTEM. THEREFORE POPS ARE STILL                 
WARRANTED IN OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...AND LINGERED THEM IN OUR FAR E                
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE FINAL REMNANTS OF THE QG FORCING.                  
ALTERED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY VERY LITTLE AND ONCE AGAIN...OUR WRN FA             
SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING POTENTIAL.                                   
AFTERWARDS...WERE NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT WX FOR THE                
WEEKEND. MID AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ON SATURDAY WITH A SELY SFC            
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THEN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WERE STILL             
ON TARGET WITH A HUGE UPPER LONGWV UPPER TROF THRU THE WRN HALF OF              
THE CONUS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN                   
SHOWING THAT THE ERN CLOSED LOW IN MT ROTATES AND SPINS A S/W THRU              
THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE BOTH MODELS SHIFT THE SFC WINDS               
ABRUPTLY TO THE WEST THRU OUR ENTIRE FA BY 12Z MONDAY. WITHOUT THE              
EARLIER BENEFIT OF THE LATE ARRIVING ECMWF...I DID NOT SHIFT THE                
WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THE DAYSHIFT MAY WANT TO TAKE A CLOSER               
LOOK AT THIS. THIS MAY ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF REDUCING OUR POPS ON             
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1236 PM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY            
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIMITED CLOUD                   
COVER. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. THE WINDS                   
NEAR KMAF...KINK...KFST AND KPEQ WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY                    
THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIOD. A MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT...HOWEVER                  
...IS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00Z-02Z THIS EVENING.                
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DURING THIS                             
TIME....ESPECIALLY AT KFST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AN HOUR OR TWO                  
AFTER SUNSET.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND                
WEST TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                   
THROUGH KCNM AND KHOB BY 17/12Z...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AND               
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING.  IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH KINK AND               
KMAF THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WEST AND                  
INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE...ALONG WITH KPEQ AND KFST...BY                
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS                     
EVENING WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF 20 TO 30KT WINDS BEHIND IT.                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COMPLICATED FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS...LOCATION AND                   
PROGRESS OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND FIRE WEATHER              
CONCERNS.  THE EASY PART IS THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR               
ROUGHLY ANOTHER WEEK.  OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS                    
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING PER 17/08Z                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS                          
THROUGH...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE...            
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE                     
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...AND LAG BEHIND A BIT ACROSS THE              
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WINDS AT MOUNT LOCKE HAVE              
BE UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF                 
THE DAY TODAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH                 
SETS OF MOUNTAINS...BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE GUADALUPES TO DROP OFF              
FIRST AND HAVE DROPPED THE WARNING THERE AT 18/00Z. COULD                       
CONCEIVABLY SEE THE WINDS TANK EVEN BEFORE THEN...BUT LEFT SOME                 
WIGGLE ROOM IN THE EVENT THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS OR DEVIATES                
SOMEHOW. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS UNTIL               
AROUND 18/03Z...AND HAVE KEPT THE WARNING HOISTED THERE...AS H70                
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST THROUGH THAT AREA LATER. IN BOTH                        
RANGES...EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...LOCATED ALONG A GAGE OK...TO AMARILLO...TO             
TUCUMCARI NM LINE AT 17/08Z...SLOWED DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH            
LATEST MSAS AND RUC INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP              
SPEED ONCE AGAIN.  HOWEVER...LEANED ON THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS               
AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WHICH INDICATED THE SLOWER                     
PROGRESSION.  THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER FARTHER EAST                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...DROPPING RH VALUES              
TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA              
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR             
NORTH THE DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE...BUT FIGURE THE NORTHERN PERMIAN            
BASIN COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS...IF ONLY BRIEFLY /SEE FIRE WX                 
DISCO BELOW/.  SO...HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW EAST AND NORTH TO                     
ENCOMPASS ALL BUT THE SE NM PLAINS...WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL                 
LIKELY OCCUR FIRST...ALLOWING RH VALUES TO INCREASE ABOVE 15 PERCENT            
EARLIER.                                                                        
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS WILL                  
ABRUPTLY SHIFT AROUND FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE              
TO BE RATHER GUSTY.  FIRE WEATHER AND AVIATION INTERESTS WILL WANT              
TO MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS FOR IMPLICATIONS IN THE RESPECTIVE                  
FIELDS.  INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE               
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...SO EXPECT THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS            
TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES AS THE FRONT             
MOVES INTO THOSE AREAS.  WITH THE POSSIBLE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE            
FRONT...RAISED HIGHS TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH KMAF AT 78F.  AS THE           
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTH...COULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY                   
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.  AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...            
TO PECOS...TO BIG BEND LINE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 30S                   
OVERNIGHT...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.            
THIS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMS.  HIGHS                
FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 70S               
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY.  IN ADDITION...DRY AND            
WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP AGAIN...BRINGING BACK THE FIRE               
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                           
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA DURING            
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THEY ARE HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCES...            
HOWEVER GIVEN THE REST OF THE DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENCE...DIDN/T BITE            
ON THESE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. STAY TUNED... /13/          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND             
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THAT AREA...ALLOW FOR COOLER                    
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S.  HOWEVER...            
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES MAY SEE WARMER                       
TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER RH/S.  FURTHER SOUTH...DRY             
AIR...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND MINIMUM RH/S OF 10                   
PERCENT OR LESS WILL AFFECT MOST OF WEST TEXAS WITH MANY AREAS                  
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RH/S THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...A RED FLAG                
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND THE GUADALUPE                 
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 18/03Z.  THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS            
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE RED FLAG             
WARNING BY 18/00Z...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ADJUST THESE AREAS.              
THE FRONT WILL LURCH SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND              
ALLOW COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH/S TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH IT.  NORTH TO             
NORTHWEST   HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED              
UNTIL AT LEAST 18/03Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VAN                    
HORN...FORT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE LINE WHERE THE LOWER RH/S AND                 
STRONG WEST WINDS MAY PERSIST.                                                  
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS             
EVENING...BUT WILL SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  RECOVERY             
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.  DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO                
RESIDE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MINIMUM                  
AFTERNOON RH/S BELOW 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL             
LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH.                    
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO                
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST LOCATIONS.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL              
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN            
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER OVER PORTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SINCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S WILL            
DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED              
FOR PORTIONS...IF NOT MOST...OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 24                
HOURS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MOVE BACK               
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GOOD              
OR BETTER RECOVERY.  POOR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THOUGH.  SUNDAY COULD            
BE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS                 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF                 
     EDDY COUNTY.                                                               
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS                  
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS                      
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.                                                         
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS                 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM CDT /11 AM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10           
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                  
     BIG BEND AREA...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...                     
     ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA                   
     PLATEAU...MIDLAND...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...                    
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN                
     HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                             
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS              
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS                   
     AREA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
79                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
636 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND                
WEST TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                   
THROUGH KCNM AND KHOB BY 17/12Z...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AND               
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING.  IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH KINK AND               
KMAF THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WEST AND                  
INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE...ALONG WITH KPEQ AND KFST...BY                
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS                     
EVENING WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF 20 TO 30KT WINDS BEHIND IT.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COMPLICATED FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS...LOCATION AND                   
PROGRESS OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND FIRE WEATHER              
CONCERNS.  THE EASY PART IS THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR               
ROUGHLY ANOTHER WEEK.  OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS                    
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING PER 17/08Z                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS                          
THROUGH...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE...            
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE                     
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...AND LAG BEHIND A BIT ACROSS THE              
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WINDS AT MOUNT LOCKE HAVE              
BE UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF                 
THE DAY TODAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH                 
SETS OF MOUNTAINS...BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE GUADALUPES TO DROP OFF              
FIRST AND HAVE DROPPED THE WARNING THERE AT 18/00Z. COULD                       
CONCEIVABLY SEE THE WINDS TANK EVEN BEFORE THEN...BUT LEFT SOME                 
WIGGLE ROOM IN THE EVENT THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS OR DEVIATES                
SOMEHOW. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS UNTIL               
AROUND 18/03Z...AND HAVE KEPT THE WARNING HOISTED THERE...AS H70                
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST THROUGH THAT AREA LATER. IN BOTH                        
RANGES...EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...LOCATED ALONG A GAGE OK...TO AMARILLO...TO             
TUCUMCARI NM LINE AT 17/08Z...SLOWED DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH            
LATEST MSAS AND RUC INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP              
SPEED ONCE AGAIN.  HOWEVER...LEANED ON THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS               
AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WHICH INDICATED THE SLOWER                     
PROGRESSION.  THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER FARTHER EAST                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...DROPPING RH VALUES              
TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA              
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR             
NORTH THE DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE...BUT FIGURE THE NORTHERN PERMIAN            
BASIN COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS...IF ONLY BRIEFLY /SEE FIRE WX                 
DISCO BELOW/.  SO...HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW EAST AND NORTH TO                     
ENCOMPASS ALL BUT THE SE NM PLAINS...WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL                 
LIKELY OCCUR FIRST...ALLOWING RH VALUES TO INCREASE ABOVE 15 PERCENT            
EARLIER.                                                                        
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS WILL                  
ABRUPTLY SHIFT AROUND FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE              
TO BE RATHER GUSTY.  FIRE WEATHER AND AVIATION INTERESTS WILL WANT              
TO MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS FOR IMPLICATIONS IN THE RESPECTIVE                  
FIELDS.  INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE               
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...SO EXPECT THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS            
TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES AS THE FRONT             
MOVES INTO THOSE AREAS.  WITH THE POSSIBLE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE            
FRONT...RAISED HIGHS TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH KMAF AT 78F.  AS THE           
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTH...COULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY                   
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.  AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...            
TO PECOS...TO BIG BEND LINE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 30S                   
OVERNIGHT...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.            
THIS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMS.  HIGHS                
FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 70S               
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY.  IN ADDITION...DRY AND            
WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP AGAIN...BRINGING BACK THE FIRE               
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                           
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA DURING            
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THEY ARE HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCES...            
HOWEVER GIVEN THE REST OF THE DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENCE...DIDN/T BITE            
ON THESE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. STAY TUNED... /13/          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND             
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THAT AREA...ALLOW FOR COOLER                    
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S.  HOWEVER...            
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES MAY SEE WARMER                       
TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER RH/S.  FURTHER SOUTH...DRY             
AIR...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND MINIMUM RH/S OF 10                   
PERCENT OR LESS WILL AFFECT MOST OF WEST TEXAS WITH MANY AREAS                  
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RH/S THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...A RED FLAG                
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND THE GUADALUPE                 
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 18/03Z.  THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS            
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE RED FLAG             
WARNING BY 18/00Z...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ADJUST THESE AREAS.              
THE FRONT WILL LURCH SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND              
ALLOW COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH/S TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH IT.  NORTH TO             
NORTHWEST   HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED              
UNTIL AT LEAST 18/03Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VAN                    
HORN...FORT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE LINE WHERE THE LOWER RH/S AND                 
STRONG WEST WINDS MAY PERSIST.                                                  
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS             
EVENING...BUT WILL SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  RECOVERY             
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.  DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO                
RESIDE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MINIMUM                  
AFTERNOON RH/S BELOW 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL             
LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH.                    
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO                
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST LOCATIONS.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL              
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN            
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER OVER PORTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SINCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S WILL            
DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED              
FOR PORTIONS...IF NOT MOST...OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 24                
HOURS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MOVE BACK               
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GOOD              
OR BETTER RECOVERY.  POOR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THOUGH.  SUNDAY COULD            
BE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING           
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN                   
     NF/LNZ.                                                                    
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF                 
     EDDY COUNTY.                                                               
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM            
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                     
     ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE                    
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE                    
     MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...                    
     MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...                   
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...                  
     UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                 
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                   
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS                   
     AREA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
67/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
404 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLICATED FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS...LOCATION AND                   
PROGRESS OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND FIRE WEATHER              
CONCERNS.  THE EASY PART IS THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR               
ROUGHLY ANOTHER WEEK.  OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS                    
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING PER 17/08Z                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS                          
THROUGH...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE...            
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE                     
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...AND LAG BEHIND A BIT ACROSS THE              
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WINDS AT MOUNT LOCKE HAVE              
BE UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF                 
THE DAY TODAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH                 
SETS OF MOUNTAINS...BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE GUADALUPES TO DROP OFF              
FIRST AND HAVE DROPPED THE WARNING THERE AT 18/00Z. COULD                       
CONCEIVABLY SEE THE WINDS TANK EVEN BEFORE THEN...BUT LEFT SOME                 
WIGGLE ROOM IN THE EVENT THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS OR DEVIATES                
SOMEHOW. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS UNTIL               
AROUND 18/03Z...AND HAVE KEPT THE WARNING HOISTED THERE...AS H70                
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST THROUGH THAT AREA LATER. IN BOTH                        
RANGES...EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...LOCATED ALONG A GAGE OK...TO AMARILLO...TO             
TUCUMCARI NM LINE AT 17/08Z...SLOWED DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH            
LATEST MSAS AND RUC INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP              
SPEED ONCE AGAIN.  HOWEVER...LEANED ON THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS               
AVAILABLE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WHICH INDICATED THE SLOWER                     
PROGRESSION.  THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER FARTHER EAST                  
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...DROPPING RH VALUES              
TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA              
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR             
NORTH THE DRIER AIR WILL PENETRATE...BUT FIGURE THE NORTHERN PERMIAN            
BASIN COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS...IF ONLY BRIEFLY /SEE FIRE WX                 
DISCO BELOW/.  SO...HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW EAST AND NORTH TO                     
ENCOMPASS ALL BUT THE SE NM PLAINS...WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL                 
LIKELY OCCUR FIRST...ALLOWING RH VALUES TO INCREASE ABOVE 15 PERCENT            
EARLIER.                                                                        
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS WILL                  
ABRUPTLY SHIFT AROUND FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CONTINUE              
TO BE RATHER GUSTY.  FIRE WEATHER AND AVIATION INTERESTS WILL WANT              
TO MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS FOR IMPLICATIONS IN THE RESPECTIVE                  
FIELDS.  INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE               
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...SO EXPECT THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS            
TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES AS THE FRONT             
MOVES INTO THOSE AREAS.  WITH THE POSSIBLE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE            
FRONT...RAISED HIGHS TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH KMAF AT 78F.  AS THE           
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTH...COULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY                   
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.  AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...            
TO PECOS...TO BIG BEND LINE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 30S                   
OVERNIGHT...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.            
THIS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATE NORMS.  HIGHS                
FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 70S               
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY.  IN ADDITION...DRY AND            
WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP AGAIN...BRINGING BACK THE FIRE               
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                           
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA DURING            
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THEY ARE HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCES...            
HOWEVER GIVEN THE REST OF THE DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENCE...DIDN/T BITE            
ON THESE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. STAY TUNED... /13/          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND             
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THAT AREA...ALLOW FOR COOLER                    
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S.  HOWEVER...            
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES MAY SEE WARMER                       
TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER RH/S.  FURTHER SOUTH...DRY             
AIR...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND MINIMUM RH/S OF 10                   
PERCENT OR LESS WILL AFFECT MOST OF WEST TEXAS WITH MANY AREAS                  
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RH/S THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...A RED FLAG                
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND THE GUADALUPE                 
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 18/03Z.  THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS            
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED FROM THE RED FLAG             
WARNING BY 18/00Z...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ADJUST THESE AREAS.              
THE FRONT WILL LURCH SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND              
ALLOW COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH/S TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH IT.  NORTH TO             
NORTHWEST   HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED              
UNTIL AT LEAST 18/03Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VAN                    
HORN...FORT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE LINE WHERE THE LOWER RH/S AND                 
STRONG WEST WINDS MAY PERSIST.                                                  
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS             
EVENING...BUT WILL SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  RECOVERY             
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.  DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO                
RESIDE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MINIMUM                  
AFTERNOON RH/S BELOW 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL             
LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH.                    
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO                
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST LOCATIONS.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL              
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN            
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER OVER PORTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SINCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S WILL            
DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED              
FOR PORTIONS...IF NOT MOST...OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 24                
HOURS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MOVE BACK               
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GOOD              
OR BETTER RECOVERY.  POOR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THOUGH.  SUNDAY COULD            
BE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              81  44  73  52  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                74  36  77  44  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  91  45  77  50  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  41  75  52  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  36  72  37  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   71  35  72  47  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   77  33  71  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  42  73  49  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  77  41  72  50  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    77  37  75  47  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING           
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN                   
     NF/LNZ.                                                                    
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF                 
     EDDY COUNTY.                                                               
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM            
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                     
     ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE                    
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE                    
     MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...                    
     MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...                   
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...                  
     UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.                 
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                   
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS           
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS                   
     AREA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
67/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DURING                 
THE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE                       
BACK...SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                  
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...WITH CIG BKN015-020 KFT. THE STRATUS WILL              
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF              
THE BIG COUNTRY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION              
BY 18Z/17. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL                 
TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SCATTERED TSRA                  
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING                   
ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO BRADY TO JUNCTION                              
LINE...AFFECTING KBBD AND KJCT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA              
AT KSOA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ADJUSTED DEWPOINT...WIND...GUST...AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER               
OF TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RUC DATA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                     
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY                
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO REMAIN IN              
THE BREEZY RANGE TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SURFACE DRYLINE              
PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST BY 09Z TONIGHT THAN THE 12Z NAM                   
INDICATED FOR THE SAME TIME. ALSO...THE RUC SHOWS 95 TO 100                     
PERCENT 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COVERING MOST OF WEST                   
CENTRAL TEXAS BY 09Z. THUS...12Z SKY GRIDS NOW 100 PERCENT ACROSS               
THE BOARD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AND OTHER GRIDS ON TRACK FOR                
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.                                                       
23/HUBER                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR                  
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....RESULTING           
IN WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN              
THE STRATUS RETURNING AGAIN OVERNIGHT...VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT              
WITH CIGS 015-020KFT ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...THE HEARTLAND AND               
SOUTHWARD...SCT015-020 KFT CIGS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY                
AROUND SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT FROPA AND ASSOCIATED TSRA ARE OUTSIDE OF                 
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TSTORM/RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW                
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED                 
BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE                  
SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BASE OF THE              
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE                    
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL HELP BRING PRECIP                  
CHANCES TO A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT.               
A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER              
LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY                      
AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL                
LOCATION AND THE RESULTING QPF WITH THE TSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND               
BEHIND IT. RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE                
IN PLACE DUE TO THE EML BEING ADVECTED OVER TEXAS FROM THE                      
SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE CONVECTION CAN GET               
GOING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE                   
STATE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ONLY MODERATELY                   
UNSTABLE AT BEST...WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE. THE                  
GULF WAS CLEARED OUT BY THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ONLY MODIFIED CP                 
AIR IS RETURNING AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S RETURNING               
UP THE SCENIC ROUTE THRU EASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS IS              
LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE LESSENED INSTABILITY THAN WHAT YOU WOULD              
TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN                  
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER                  
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL                  
MOST LIKELY BE LINEAR AND POSSIBLY EVEN POST FRONTAL AS THE FRONT               
SURGES SOUTHEAST BENEATH THEM. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A                
FEW ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT                   
LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT                   
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS ON QPF...I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MY                    
SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 00Z FRI.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY                    
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR ANY                   
WEEKEND OUTDOOR PLANS IF YOU DON`T MIND SOME WIND.                              
THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY                      
REGARDING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND THEN DIVERGE MID TO LATE NEXT              
WEEK. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...A DEEP LONGWAVE                   
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS AN OMEGA BLOCK                  
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG                
STORM NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT VORT MAXES WILL EJECT OUT OF              
THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERN                
TEXAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
AND A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.                
THE AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE VERY DRY AND BORDERLINE HOT AS               
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SURGE INTO THE MID 20S                   
CELSIUS. MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE GOOD BY THEN AS THE GULF WILL                 
HAVE HAD TIME TO RECOVER. SO IT IS FEASIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE A                
FEW ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS ON ANY OF THOSE DAYS BUT CHANCES ARE                
TOO LOW GIVEN THE STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TO PUT IN THE                
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.                                                          
WHILE THE UPPER DETAILS DIFFER IN THE MODELS...THEY BOTH AGREE                  
THAT A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON OR AROUND WEDNESDAY               
AS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OMEGA BLOCK GETS UNDERCUT BY                       
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT. WENT              
AHEAD AND THREW IN A BLANKET 20 POP SINCE IT IS DAY 7 AND DETAILS               
CAN EASILY CHANGE BY THEN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  83  58  74  45 /   0  10  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  85  58  86  45 /   0   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  80  61  86  50 /   0  10  10  50                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/28                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
718 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTED DEWPOINT...WIND...GUST...AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER               
OF TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RUC DATA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                     
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY                
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO REMAIN IN              
THE BREEZY RANGE TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SURFACE DRYLINE              
PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST BY 09Z TONIGHT THAN THE 12Z NAM                   
INDICATED FOR THE SAME TIME. ALSO...THE RUC SHOWS 95 TO 100                     
PERCENT 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COVERING MOST OF WEST                   
CENTRAL TEXAS BY 09Z. THUS...12Z SKY GRIDS NOW 100 PERCENT ACROSS               
THE BOARD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AND OTHER GRIDS ON TRACK FOR                
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.                                                       
23/HUBER                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR                  
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....RESULTING           
IN WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN              
THE STRATUS RETURNING AGAIN OVERNIGHT...VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT              
WITH CIGS 015-020KFT ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...THE HEARTLAND AND               
SOUTHWARD...SCT015-020 KFT CIGS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY                
AROUND SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT FROPA AND ASSOCIATED TSRA ARE OUTSIDE OF                 
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TSTORM/RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW                
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.                             
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS CHARACTERIZED                 
BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE                  
SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BASE OF THE              
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE                    
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL HELP BRING PRECIP                  
CHANCES TO A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT.               
A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER              
LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY                      
AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL                
LOCATION AND THE RESULTING QPF WITH THE TSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND               
BEHIND IT. RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE                
IN PLACE DUE TO THE EML BEING ADVECTED OVER TEXAS FROM THE                      
SOUTHWEST. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE CONVECTION CAN GET               
GOING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE                   
STATE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ONLY MODERATELY                   
UNSTABLE AT BEST...WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE. THE                  
GULF WAS CLEARED OUT BY THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND ONLY MODIFIED CP                 
AIR IS RETURNING AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S RETURNING               
UP THE SCENIC ROUTE THRU EASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS IS              
LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE LESSENED INSTABILITY THAN WHAT YOU WOULD              
TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN                  
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER                  
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL                  
MOST LIKELY BE LINEAR AND POSSIBLY EVEN POST FRONTAL AS THE FRONT               
SURGES SOUTHEAST BENEATH THEM. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A                
FEW ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT                   
LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT                   
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS ON QPF...I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MY                    
SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER 00Z FRI.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY                    
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR ANY                   
WEEKEND OUTDOOR PLANS IF YOU DON`T MIND SOME WIND.                              
THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY                      
REGARDING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND THEN DIVERGE MID TO LATE NEXT              
WEEK. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...A DEEP LONGWAVE                   
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS AN OMEGA BLOCK                  
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG                
STORM NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. SIGNIFICANT VORT MAXES WILL EJECT OUT OF              
THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERN                
TEXAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
AND A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.                
THE AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE VERY DRY AND BORDERLINE HOT AS               
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SURGE INTO THE MID 20S                   
CELSIUS. MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE GOOD BY THEN AS THE GULF WILL                 
HAVE HAD TIME TO RECOVER. SO IT IS FEASIBLE THAT WE COULD HAVE A                
FEW ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS ON ANY OF THOSE DAYS BUT CHANCES ARE                
TOO LOW GIVEN THE STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TO PUT IN THE                
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.                                                          
WHILE THE UPPER DETAILS DIFFER IN THE MODELS...THEY BOTH AGREE                  
THAT A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON OR AROUND WEDNESDAY               
AS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OMEGA BLOCK GETS UNDERCUT BY                       
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT. WENT              
AHEAD AND THREW IN A BLANKET 20 POP SINCE IT IS DAY 7 AND DETAILS               
CAN EASILY CHANGE BY THEN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  58  74  45  75 /  10  20  20  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  58  86  45  77 /   0   0  10   0                                    
JUNCTION  61  86  50  75 /  10  10  50  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
354 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
DEEP MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE HAS LED TO               
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS CURRENTLY RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO              
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE RUC FORECAST...AND               
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR YET DEEPER            
MIXING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MATCHED THE WIND ADVISORY TO THE             
PREVIOUS RED FLAG WARNING AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE SHORTLY AFTER            
SUNSET AND BACK SLIGHTLY...ENOUGH TO BRING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS             
TO MOST AREAS ON THE CAP ROCK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY                 
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR              
NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE              
AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. LATEST GUIDANCE FORECAST                   
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST AND LARGELY RETAINED. TRIMMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER             
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY BE MORE                     
PERSISTENT. GUIDANCE NOT CLEAR ABOUT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY...            
LATEST NUMBERS LESS IMPRESSIVE...BUT RETAINED THE VERY SLIM CHANCES             
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.  MCQUEEN                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW...COLDEST MORNING              
IN THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES OVER            
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE             
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OF                
THOSE SPRING DAYS THAT IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE               
GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.                                            
BY SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST OR                  
SOUTHWEST HELPING DEEPEN THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH THUS INCREASING WIND               
SPEEDS LOCALLY...ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM                        
TEMPERATURES.  THE DRY...WARM... AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO                
ENTER THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT                
DIFFERENCES BY MID WEEK WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING           
A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE             
WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING              
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO AND ABOVE 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE A               
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING                
UNTIL 03Z ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT PRIOR TO THAT IN THE WAY              
OF DIMINISHING AND BACKING WINDS...AND PERHAPS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES              
IMPROVING AS WELL. COLD FRONT DUE NEAR DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER           
BUT STILL BREEZY OR LOW END WINDY WEATHER THURSDAY.  MCQUEEN                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        41  51  29  72  40 /  10  20  10   0   0                          
TULIA         46  54  31  73  42 /  10  20  10   0  10                          
PLAINVIEW     48  55  34  74  43 /  10  20  10   0  10                          
LEVELLAND     48  60  34  75  42 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       51  61  37  76  46 /  10  10  10   0  10                          
DENVER CITY   50  66  34  76  43 /   0  10  10   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    51  65  35  77  43 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     52  59  40  75  47 /  10  20  20   0  10                          
SPUR          53  65  37  78  46 /  10  10  10   0  10                          
ASPERMONT     59  70  40  78  50 /  10  10  20  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.                                      
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                    
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/04                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1219 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINDS ARE INCREASING...BUT MAY INCREASE A NOTCH ABOVE FORECAST                  
VALUES IF THE RUC MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT. RUC 13 SUGGESTS WINDS               
TO 30+ MPH SUSTAINED OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA COVERED BY THE                 
RED FLAG WARNING AT SOME POINT FROM 18Z TO 03Z THIS EVENING. WE                 
ARE WATCHING TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR THESE WINDS TO BEGIN...NOT                    
YET...BUT IF THEY DO PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. AN AREA OF                  
DEEP SUBSIDENCE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS EDGING INTO              
THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND AGAINST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS              
RIGHT NOW AND WOULD VERY MUCH SUPPORT THE RUC WIND TRENDS. MCQUEEN              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING UA TROUGH OVER            
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT/PRESSURE               
FALLS HAVE RESULTED IN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING                     
NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANY HINTS OF                
MOISTURE WILL BE EASILY SCOURED EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE ONSET OF                
DEEP PBL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING               
LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY              
WIND FIELDS. CURRENT PROGS DEPICT A DRYLINE SHARPENING OVER THE                 
EASTERN ZONES LATER TODAY...AND THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE                  
DRYLINE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE             
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SINGLE DIGIT TD/S. ALTHOUGH A FEW CU ARE                  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...             
AN EML...DRY THERMAL PROFILES...AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING/              
ASCENT SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ROLLING                 
PLAINS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE.                                                  
EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON IN THE 20 TO 30               
MPH RANGE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BEING                  
MAINTAINED OFF THE CAPROCK. SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE UA SYSTEM DEEPENING            
TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE               
06-12Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT NOW SEEN OVER                  
COLORADO/KANSAS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN SOUTH             
PLAINS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.                                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER                
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES             
BETWEEN THE NAM-WRF AND GFS WITH THE GFS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. VERY              
DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE                    
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF THE                
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. IT APPEARS THAT FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD BE HELD TO A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY AS                      
DURATION OF DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND LOW RH VALUES WOULD BE                  
MINIMIZED.                                                                      
FORMIDABLE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CREATE                   
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.              
IN ADDITION...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL                
STORM SYSTEM MAY CLIP THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE BULK OF               
THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN                   
NORTH OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME CONFIDENCE THAT                 
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THE              
NORTHERN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                     
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PASS THE REGION TO THE EAST              
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...BARRING ANY SLOWING. THIS WILL END ANY LIGHT                 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH RAPID SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OCCURRING ON THE               
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.                                                     
THE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY DRY              
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER                  
CONCERNS. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS INDICATING SURFACE RH VALUES                  
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WITH NEAR 10 PERCENT               
AS FAR EAST AS THE ROLLING PLAINS. GFS TIME SECTIONS ALSO                       
INDICATING NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN              
THIS WEEKEND WITH EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 300MB! DEEP                  
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD ADIABATIC WARMING AND               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SIDED CLOSE TO THE MEX AND ADDED A FEW               
DEGREES AS SOILS DRY FROM RECENT RAINS. MOS TRENDS THE LAST                     
SEVERAL RIDGE/DOWNSLOPE PERIODS WERE ON THE COOL SIDE.                          
APART FROM OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AND RETREATING NIGHTTIME LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/RAIN                    
CHANCES WILL REMAIN EXEMPT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.                       
NEXT COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. KW                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
TODAY...EXTREMELY DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA             
ON BREEZY/WARM DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD                     
PROGRESSION OF THE DRY/WARM BREEZES WILL BE MARKED BY A DRYLINE                 
LATER TODAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA. THAT/S WHERE A               
TIGHT DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRADIENT IS PROGGED...AND ITS                  
LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN DEFINING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.                  
CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF THE EASTERN            
PANHANDLE/ WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER...AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.              
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ONGOING WILDFIRE NORTHWEST OF MCADOO...WARRANTS            
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TO ENCOMPASS                    
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL            
BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND RELATIVE            
HUMIDITY MINIMA BELOW 5 PERCENT ON THE CAPROCK. GIVEN 20 FOOT LEVEL             
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 MPH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...THIS WILL             
EASILY EXCEED LOCAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERION. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE              
CURRENTLY ENTERING A TRANSITION TOWARD SPRING GREEN UP...THE                    
COMBINATION OF EXTREME DRYING AND WINDS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE                
CAPROCK SUGGEST A RISK OF WILDFIRE EVOLUTION GIVEN IGNITION.                    
EXTENDED...A PERIOD OF EXTREMELY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND               
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH               
NEXT TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER                    
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ANY DAY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS SITUATION               
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        84  39  54  29  72 /   0  10  20  10   0                          
TULIA         86  43  54  31  73 /   0  10  20  10   0                          
PLAINVIEW     87  46  54  34  74 /   0  10  20  10   0                          
LEVELLAND     88  47  59  34  75 /   0  10  10  10   0                          
LUBBOCK       89  50  59  37  76 /   0  10  10  10   0                          
DENVER CITY   88  50  64  34  76 /   0   0  10  10   0                          
BROWNFIELD    89  50  62  35  77 /   0  10  10  10   0                          
CHILDRESS     86  50  61  40  75 /   0  10  20  20   0                          
SPUR          90  52  63  37  78 /   0  10  10  10   0                          
ASPERMONT     87  54  66  40  78 /   0  10  10  20  10                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1140 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A 40 TO 45 KNT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED...KEEPING SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS                
AT 1 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ALSO HAVE WIND SHEAR FOR ALL                 
TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z/16. STILL EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE              
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AROUND 09Z AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IN TO THE                
HEARTLAND AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...SO HAVE BKN010-015 CIGS                
AT KJCT...KBBD AND KSOA...ELSEWHERE ONLY HAVE SCT015-020 CIGS AT                
KSJT AND KABI. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO RETURN BY 16Z FOR KJCT...KBBD                 
AND KSOA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR                
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE BIG                     
COUNTRY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS DOWN INTO THE BREEZY RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF             
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RUC DATA. LATEST ZONE PACKAGE REFLECTS              
THESE CHANGES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.                                    
23/HUBER                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A 45 TO 50 KT 850MB LOW    
LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING..SO HAVE INCLUDED                  
WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS. STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE                  
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 09Z AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE                          
NORTHWARD...FOR NOW THINK BKN015-025 AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF               
KJCT AND KSOA...ELSEWHERE SCT025-030 CIGS. A LEE TROUGH WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE               
STRONGER WINDS BEING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS                    
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY               
AND CONCHO VALLEY. WILDFIRE DANGER IS ELEVATED...BUT WITH                       
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...SHOULD NOT EXCEED RED FLAG                 
WARNING CRITERIA.                                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE INTO                     
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA...TO AN ABILENE TO JUNCTION LINE MIDDAY                 
THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ON GFS AND ECMWF MODELS RUNS IS                            
SLOWER...MOVING SOUTH TO ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO LATE THURSDAY                   
AFTERNOON. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ZONES               
WHERE MOISTURE STILL REMAINS THURSDAY...AND IN SOUTHERN AND                     
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING.                                                 
BREEZY SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY...FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AND                     
CONCHO VALLEY...AS LEE TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN. MAY SEE SOME                       
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG                   
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. LEFT                  
OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  58  81  60  75 /   0   0  10  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  56  82  61  77 /   0   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  54  78  62  80 /   0   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/28                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
311 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                    
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH              
SAT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                          
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONT WITH THE               
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO NEAR A KSTC-KFRM-SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA LINE.            
BRISK SOUTH WINDS 15-30MPH G30-40MPH IN TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF                 
THE FRONT. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S-LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF WI/IA              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UNDER PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BEHIND THE                
FRONT...WINDS SWING RATHER ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTHWEST 15-25MPH                   
G30MPH WITH PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID               
40S AND 50S. -RA/-SHRA WELL POST-FRONTAL AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN               
MN/SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD...AND ON A DECREASING TREND SINCE LATE             
MORNING.                                                                        
16.12Z NAM/GFS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL AND OFFER               
RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. A COUPLE OF                
MINOR DIFFERENCES OUT OF THE GATE...GFS 1C TO 3C TOO HIGH WITH 850MB            
DEW POINTS ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE NAM ABOUT 1C TOO LOW.            
GFS ABOUT 5F TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. DPROG/DT             
OF 500MB HGTS AT 16.12Z SHOWED THE NAM/GFS RUNS OF 14.12Z AND                   
15.12Z VERIFIED QUITE WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN                   
CONSISTENCY AND OVERALL EDGE TO GFS. FOR 00-36HRS GFS OFFERS THE                
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL               
CONUS...WITH NAM TRENDING TOWARD IT. FOR 36-60HRS...TREND IS A BIT              
STRONGER WITH THE NEXT TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A                    
CONTINUED NORTHWARD SHIFT OF CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH INTO THE MID MS              
VALLEY...TOWARD 15.12Z GFS SOLUTION. NAM/GFS 500MB LOW POSITIONS AT             
60HRS QUITE SIMILAR...BUT CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF UKMET/ECMWF                     
POSITIONS. THE STRONGER TREND WITH THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN             
CONUS CONTINUES IN THE 60-84HR TIME-FRAME AND SUPPORTED BY                      
ECMWF/UKMET. DIFFERENCES EVOLVE AS THE MID MS VALLEY UPPER LOW                  
DRIFTS EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. NAM UPPER LOW LOCATION AT 84HRS A               
REASONABLE COMPROMISE OF GFS/ECMWF. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT              
18Z SHOWED NAM/GFS A BIT FAST WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. GFS                    
REMAINED ABOUT 5F TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.              
NAM WAS BETTER WITH THE 12Z-18Z PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL                 
CONUS. BOTH MODELS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS                
NOAM/EASTERN PAC. WITH GFS LOOKING BETTER FOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY            
BUT NAM PERFORMING BETTER THRU 18Z...WILL AGAIN FAVOR MODEL                     
BLEND/ENSEMBLE APPROACH THIS CYCLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT            
TERM AVERAGE TO GOOD.                                                           
IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO DIE A NATURAL DEATH            
AT 3PM. GRADIENT CONTINUED TO RELAX AS THE FRONT APPROACHED WITH                
WINDS MOSTLY 15-25MPH G35MPH...SUB ADVISORY RANGE. DISTANCE-SPEED               
TOOL HAS THE FRONT NEAR A HAYWARD WI...PRESTON MN...MARSHALLTOWN IA             
LINE BY 00Z...THEN TO NEAR A WAUSAU WI TO DUBUQUE IA LINE BY 06Z.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED OVER THE               
AREA THRU 06Z...WITH INVERSION ONLY SLOWLY ERODING. WITH GFS                    
INITIALIZED WITH A BIT TOO MUCH SFC-850MB MOISTURE...DISCOUNTED THE             
-RA IT GENERATES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND                
REMOVED SMALL EVENING POP FROM FORECAST GRIDS. FRONT INTERCEPTS                 
BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER                   
TONIGHT. WITH INVERSION GONE AND SOME INCREASE OF LIFT/DIVERGENCE               
ALOFT...LEFT THE SMALL -RA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT. STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA            
SERVES AS FOCUS FOR LIFTING THU AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF               
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG...             
SLOPED FN CONVERGENCE...WITH NEAR NEUTRAL STABILITY ABOVE IT...                 
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT THU...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE                      
TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A               
SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. DID SPLIT THU INTO                    
MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR -RA DEVELOPING/SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE             
AREA. SECONDARY/STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THU NIGHT             
THEN LIFTS TO IA/IL BORDER AREA FRI...IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN                   
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. INITIAL FN            
CONVERGENCE WANES THU EVENING...BUT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/               
THETA-E CONVERGENCE CONTINUE INTO THE AREA FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI              
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH. WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK            
OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL LOWS...EXPANDED RAIN CHANCES WEST/NORTH ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. HIGHEST RAIN                    
CHANCES/LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SYSTEM              
REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LINGER A -RA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3            
OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT. GFS ENSEMBLES/SREF TREND TOWARD THE -RA               
CHANCE ON SAT NOT BEING NEAR HIGH ENOUGH...BUT CHANCE POPS IN SAT               
FORECAST GRID BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS FOR NOW.                               
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP BOUNDARY                 
LAYER STIRRED...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS. TRENDED TOWARD                 
COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS THU WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN                    
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE LOWS THU/FRI NIGHTS SIMILAR             
AND REASONABLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN. WITH PLENTY              
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED AGAIN FRI...FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE              
HIGHS. TRENDED SAT HIGHS TOWARD COOLER GFS MEX MOS VALUES. WITH                 
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER LINGERING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF              
GUIDANCE LOWS.                                                                  
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
16.00Z GFS/ECMWF NOT WITHOUT THEIR DIFFERENCES ALREADY BY 12Z SUN...            
MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE OH             
VALLEY. CONSISTENCY MODERATE WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN TO THE              
WESTERN CONUS THRU 00Z MON...THEN SOLUTIONS /GFS/ECMWF/CAN GEM/                 
UKMET/ DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE STRONGER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE            
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH. NEITHER GFS OR ECMWF SHOWS                  
BETTER CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHER TO ITS 15.00Z RUN. HOWEVER...                 
OVERALL TREND IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE                 
TROUGH/ENERGY MON/TUE. UKMET APPEARS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE                     
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF RUNS THRU 144HRS /00Z TUE/...WHILE GFS                  
ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE IN THE TUE/WED               
TIME FRAME. ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BEYOND SUNDAY             
NOT HIGH. WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...USE OF AN ENSEMBLE/MODEL            
BLEND APPROACH SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR MON-WED UNTIL CONSENSUS/RUN-TO-            
RUN CONSISTENCY IMPROVES. WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT STILL SLATED TO            
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE                 
RETURN STARTS SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS. CONTINUED SMALL -SHRA CHANCE SUN NIGHT...BUT THIS IN                    
QUESTION IF SYSTEM SLOWS FURTHER. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF             
THE FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE AND WITH THE EVOLUTION OF              
THE LOW AS IT OCCLUDES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. ECMWF FASTER/STRONGER            
WITH THE FRONT/LOW...GFS/UKMET/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SLOWER/WEAKER. WITH            
THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL BROAD-BRUSH A -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE             
AREA FOR MON THRU TUE. WITH SYSTEM ALREADY SHOWING A SLOWING TREND              
AND POTENTIAL TO SLOW FURTHER...LINGERED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE FOR               
TUE NIGHT. OPTIMISTIC FOR A DRY DAY WED WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR HIGH            
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.....BUT CONFIDENCE              
NOT HIGH WITH THIS. GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS ENSEMBLE MOS               
AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD...VS. DETERMINISTIC             
GFS MEX MOS NUMBERS.                                                            
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                                
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SLACKENING               
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEADING TO A DECREASE IN WINDS...ALONG                
WITH A SWING TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE              
FRONT INITIALLY...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME                  
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MATCHING UP FAIRLY WELL               
WITH NAM12 AND RUC13 RH FIELDS. 88-D RADAR RETURNS SHOWING SOME                 
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. MODEL TRENDS WOULD BE              
TO DRY THIS LAYER OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH                
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS/RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. IN                  
ADDITION...STRONG WARMING IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER KEEPS A STRONG                
INVERSION IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS SEEN VIA BUFKIT                 
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL HELP INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES AS THE             
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SO...WILL KEEP SOME BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR               
NOW...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN CHANCES FOR KRST AND KLSE. THE FRONT              
WILL STALL FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN                       
PLAINS...WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE BOUNDARY              
ON THU. BETTER FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING...AND             
LOWERING...CLOUD DECK THU...WITH INCREASING PCPN CHANCES BY THU                 
NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS              
POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN LATE THU INTO FRI.                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS                                                           
AVIATION..........RIECK                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
303 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS ON WET PERIOD WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW THURSDAY                
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
RUC SOUNDING HAVE 50 KNOT WINDS AT AROUND 4 THSD FT. SOME MIXING                
OF THESE WINDS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING                
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO CRITERIA FOR                  
ANOTHER HOUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA WILL HAVE WINDS BELOW CRITERIA. WILL LET ADVISORY EXPIRE AT                
3 PM. STILL SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL 5 PM WHEN                  
HEATING BEGINS TO WANE.                                                         
INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY.               
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A NARROW LAYER SATURATING AROUND 5 TO 8 THSD            
FT WITH STABLE LAYER AROUND 10 THSD FT WITH NO ELEVATED                         
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE.                                    
MOISTURE SURGE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS THURSDAY AHEAD OF SLOW                
MOVING UPPER LOW. LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD FROM THURSDAY RIGHT INTO              
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENCE               
IS FAIRLY DECENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF                 
UPPER LOW.                                                                      
UPPER LOW IS A BIT MORE CLOSED OFF...A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND                 
SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON ECMWF THAN ON GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF                    
SOLUTION. EVEN SO QPF ON ECMWF SIMILAR TO GFS. AS A RESULT AMOUNTS              
MAY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THIS WOULD UNFORTUNATELY                       
AGGRAVATE THE RIVER FLOOD PROBLEMS ALREADY OCCURRING. WILL ISSUE                
YET ANOTHER ESF ON THIS ADDED FLOOD POTENTIAL.                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SLOWER ECMWF ENDS PRECIP AROUND THE              
SAME TIME AS THE GFS...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.                                     
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY. THEN A SOUTHWEST UPPER                 
FLOW EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPSTREAM TROF/UPPER LOW                  
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STG GRAD WL GRAD DIM THIS EVNG AS LOW PRES TROF IN FAR                          
NW WI DRIFTS SEWD. STG SFC WNDS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WL DIM TO 10 TO             
15KTS BY MIDNGT. XPCT VFR CONDS THRU 06Z...THEN MVFR CIGS WL SPRD               
SEWD WITH SFC TROF TO SE CRNR BY ARND 12Z. MVFR CONDS WL PERSIST                
THRU 00Z FRI ALNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS SRN WI.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10             
TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT. WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET WILL GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH              
08Z THU.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...HENTZ                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...35                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
310 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM....DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS                  
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER             
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVEL               
WILL GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CROSS SECTIONS              
SHOW THE FORMATION OF A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AS              
MTN TOP STATIC STABILITY STRENGTHENS WITH WARMING ALOFT. RUC AND NAM            
ALSO INDICATE WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE             
TODAY...TOGETHER WITH THE WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE            
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. STRONG DIABATIC                
HEATING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND THE ADDITIONAL HEATING PRODUCED BY              
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON THE              
PLAINS...WITH THE WARMEST READING WITHIN THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND                 
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE. OVERNIGHT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY                     
DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING IN AND NEAR THE BASE OF THE FRONT                    
RANGE...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.                
OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME MID-LEVEL MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE                
FOOTHILLS LATE...CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE THE RULE.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO CARVE OUT               
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE                   
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROF. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASED FIRE                  
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH LOWERING RH AND INCREASING SFC WINDS BY SAT               
AFTN AND AGAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON. AFTER CONSULTING WITH ADJOINING               
OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW. RECENT PRECIP AND NEW             
GRASS GROWTH OVER THE PLAINS WOULD PLAY AGAINST CRITICAL FIRE                   
BEHAVIOR. SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GATHER INFORMATION ON STATUS OF              
FUELS TO DECIDE IF A WATCH IS NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT              
COOLING OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON SUNDAY AS A LEAD WAVE EJECTS OUT                
FROM THE LOW WITH MORE MID LVL DRYING ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE COOLING FOR               
MONDAY. MOISTURE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS QUITE SCARCE BUT WILL             
LEAVE ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.                               
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A BIT MORE FUZZY AS JET STREAK AND                    
ADDITIONAL TROFINESS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH                
THURSDAY. GFS IS SHOWING SOME QPF EACH OF THESE DAYS BUT WON`T ADD              
ANY TO GRIDS YET TIL WE GET SOME BETTER DETAIL.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG            
THE FOOT OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST                
WINDS IN THE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT              
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE DENVER AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE               
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND STABLE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/ENTREKIN                                                                  
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
238 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
238 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW FAST TO RAISE TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH SUNDAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY. MINOR INITIAL                  
PROBLEM WILL BE EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG AND STRATUS. SATELLITE               
SHOWING A COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL                  
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW WAS SHOWING SOME                    
AMPLITUDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OVERALL FLOW WAS NOT           
THAT PROGRESSIVE. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT OUR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION              
YESTERDAY IS ALSO ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.                        
MODELS ARE HAVING A TERRIBLE TIME THROUGH 06Z WITH THE JET STRENGTH             
AND POSITION FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN               
MISSOURI. MODELS DO NOT HAVE JET AXIS FAR ENOUGH NORTH/TOO FAR EAST             
AND ARE ALSO NOT ORIENTED MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND TOO WEAK IN THIS              
AREA. IF WERE TO CHOOSE A MODEL PREFERENCE IN THIS AREA...WOULD HAVE            
TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE NAM. MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE            
INITIAL CONDITIONS AND POSITION OF UPPER FEATURES THROUGH 06Z FROM              
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL WOULD SAY              
THAT THE NAM WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS.                            
UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS ON 850 MB                   
TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH SURFACE PATTERN. DUE TO                  
INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...                
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE               
MODELS...AND TEND TO GO WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE              
SOLUTION. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION.                   
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY FOG               
AND STRATUS WILL BE AROUND. SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH RUC/NAM WOULD                  
INDICATE THAT ANY FOG THAT IS AROUND AT 12Z WILL BE GONE QUICKLY.               
WILL MONITOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. BUT            
WILL PROBABLY HIT STRATUS AND FOG HARDEST IN THE EASTERN HALF                   
THROUGH MID MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT AFTER 15Z...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF            
SUN THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS THE UPPER RIDGE                
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT WILL BE SEEING              
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND OUR EXITING SYSTEM. ONLY TWEEKED                      
TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE.                            
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SHOULD             
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH MAIN JET TO THE SOUTH OF AREA. INCREASING                
GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT              
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY         
CATEGORY DURING THE DAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH THE WARMER                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUNDINGS/MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT              
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. AREA IS ALSO IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN               
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS. MODELS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING                
TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. WHICH MEANS LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENTLY              
DEPICTED BY ANY MODEL. ALSO BELIEVE THIS WILL MEAN MORE WINDS THAN              
ANY MODEL SAYS AS WELL AS WARMER THAN ANY MODEL. THIS WILL LEAD TO              
THE NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A FEW              
DAYS AND HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY PARTICULAR AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN             
MODEL PERFORMANCE. BUT WOULD SAY THE WEST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO            
GET A RED FLAG WARNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL            
IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                     
FOR SOME REASON...THE MAV IS SPITTING OUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOME            
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SAY AIR MASS IS               
WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...AND WILL DISCOUNT THE MAV AND            
KEEP IT DRY.                                                                    
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                           
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1230 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...A VERY NARROW BAND OF DENSE FOG HAS LINED               
UP ALONG THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...BRINGING                 
KGLD DOWN INTO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE KMCK REMAINS IN VFR                        
CONDITIONS. BY ABOUT 11Z...KGLD IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SCATTER OUT              
TO VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS ORGANIZE AND SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST                 
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION.                                                   
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
232 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
232 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW FAST TO RAISE TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH SUNDAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY. MINOR INITIAL                  
PROBLEM WILL BE EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG AND STRATUS. SATELLITE               
SHOWING A COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL                  
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW WAS SHOWING SOME                    
AMPLITUDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OVERALL FLOW WAS NOT           
THAT PROGRESSIVE. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT OUR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION              
YESTERDAY IS ALSO ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.                        
MODELS ARE HAVING A TERRIBLE TIME THROUGH 06Z WITH THE JET STRENGTH             
AND POSITION FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN               
MISSOURI. MODELS DO NOT HAVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH/TOO FAR EAST AND ARE              
ALSO NOT ORIENTED MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND TOO WEAK IN THIS AREA. IF             
WERE TO CHOOSE A MODEL PREFERENCE IN THIS AREA...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE             
THE EDGE TO THE NAM. MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INITIAL            
CONDITIONS AND POSITION OF UPPER FEATURES THROUGH 06Z FROM ALONG THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL WOULD SAY THAT THE NAM           
WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS.                                         
UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS ON 850 MB                   
TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH SURFACE PATTERN. DUE TO                  
INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...                
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE               
MODELS...AND TEND TO GO WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE              
SOLUTION. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION.                   
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY FOG               
AND STRATUS WILL BE AROUND. SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH RUC/NAM WOULD                  
INDICATE THAT ANY FOG THAT IS AROUND AT 12Z WILL BE GONE QUICKLY.               
WILL MONITOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION.                
WILL HIT STRATUS AND FOG HARDEST IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH MID                
MORNING. NO MATTER WHAT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE DAY              
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURE             
ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT WILL BE SEEING WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND           
OUR EXITING SYSTEM. ONLY TWEEKED TEMPERATURES AND TENDED TO WITH                
COOLER GUIDANCE.                                                                
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SHOULD             
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH MAIN JET TO THE SOUTH OF AREA. INCREASING                
GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT              
MOUNTAIN WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY DURING           
THE DAY. WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE.                      
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUNDINGS/MOISTURE PROGS WOULD INDICATE THAT              
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. AREA IS ALSO IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN               
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS. MODELS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING                
TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. WHICH MEANS LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENT                
DEPICTED BY ANY MODEL. ALSO BELIEVE THIS WILL MEAN MORE WINDS THAN              
ANY MODEL SAYS AS WELL AS WARMER. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A              
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. HOWEVER...HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY PARTICULAR               
AREA BUT WOULD SAY THE WEST WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO GET A RED                
FLAG WARNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE FIRE WEATHER                 
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                         
FOR SOME REASON...THE MAV IS SPITTING OUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOME            
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SAY AIR MASS IS               
WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...AND DISCOUNT THE MAV AND                 
KEEP DRY.                                                                       
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                           
THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.                                                
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1230 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                     
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...A VERY NARROW BAND OF DENSE FOG HAS LINED               
UP ALONG THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...BRINGING                 
KGLD DOWN INTO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE KMCK REMAINS IN VFR                        
CONDITIONS. BY ABOUT 11Z...KGLD IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SCATTER OUT              
TO VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS ORGANIZE AND SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST                 
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION.                                                   
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
128 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS -RA COVERAGE.                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING             
E INTO THE SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING COMBINED WITH A MORE ZONAL            
FLOW OVER SRN CANADA IS RESULTING IN UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM            
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO EWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF            
JET AND CORRESPONDING BAND OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SUPPORTING              
PCPN THAT IS STREAKING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE INTO THE                
UPPER LAKES REGION. PCPN HAS NOT BEEN WELL ORGANIZED YET AS ABUNDANT            
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT OVER UPPER MI PER LATE AFTN TAMDAR                 
SOUNDINGS FROM KSAW/KCMX. IT IS ONLY WHERE FORCING IS WELL FOCUSED              
THAT PCPN HAS OVERCOME DRY AIR. SO FAR THAT AREA EXISTS FROM ABOUT              
WATERSMEET AND KIMT NE TO KMQT.                                                 
POSITION OF UPPER JET AND 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS            
THAT THE AREA WHERE SOME -RA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING MAY BE THE AREA             
WHERE PCPN REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT THRU THE NIGHT. SO WILL BUMP POPS            
UP ACROSS ERN IRON/DICKINSON/ERN BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES                      
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT THE FAR W TO REMAIN DRY. LARGER BATCH OF -RA            
THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN ERN IA/NW IL/SW WI WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SE              
AND E FCST AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT...SUPPORTING PREVIOUS FCST OF                
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THAT AREA.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)... ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT                        
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT                 
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HEADING OUR WAY. AT 1930Z...RADAR WAS                    
INDICATING RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER                        
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...WITH RAIN STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL                   
WISCONSIN.  THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED                
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH UPPER LOWER            
MICHIGAN...TO SOUTHERN IOWA AND CENTRAL KANSAS.                                 
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS                 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT ALREADY SWOLLEN                
RIVERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                   
THE NAM...IN ITS 12Z RUN HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING                 
MOISTURE TO OVERCOME THE RIDGE OVER SE CANADA.  THIS IS MORE IN LINE            
WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS.  THE CANADIAN REMAINS STILL A LITTLE             
MORE TO THE SE WITH PRECIPITATION...KEEPING A MAJORITY OVER EASTERN             
OR EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE MORE            
AGGRESSIVE PRECIPITATION SLIDING MORE INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.              
EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT                         
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.                   
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                    
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN..THE 12Z NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM              
HAVE CONTINUED TREND TOWARD SPREADING PCPN FARTHER NW THROUGH MUCH              
OF UPPER MI. THE PCPN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WITH 250-300             
JET INTO NRN ONTARIO AND BAND OF 800-600 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN WELL TO            
THE NORTH OF THE 500 MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE FCST            
AGAIN LEANED MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WHICH WAS                    
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF IN LIMITING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF             
THE PCPN BAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONSIDERABLE               
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING RAIN POTENTIAL/COVERAGE AS IT IS                  
POSSIBLE THAT THE PCPN BAND MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH OF TO THE WEST...PER            
NAM...SO THAT THE SE CWA MAY SEE LITTLE PCPN. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE              
FOR PCPN OR SPRINKLES INCLUDED BY SUNDAY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE                
WEAKENS.                                                                        
MON-THU...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW               
CONUS MID LEVEL LOW THAT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD S CNTRL CANADA. GIVEN              
THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND THE TREND OF 12Z GFS...THE                 
SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND FARTHER N POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW             
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WAS PREFERRED. SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR               
PCPN IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT LINGERING INTO TUE AS THE MAIN FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 10C AND LI            
AROUND 0 STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA WITH THE SYSTEM. CAA            
BRINGS IN ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR POSSIBILITY             
OF SCT RA/SN SHOWERS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS...AS RIVERS RISE DUE TO ONGOING                
SNOW MELT.  WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THEM AND THEIR               
RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL WATER DUE TO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH                   
SATURDAY NIGHT.  AT THE CURRENT TIME...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE EXPECTED              
TO RUN HIGH...BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  SOME LOCATIONS OF NOTE INCLUDE            
THE EAST BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN...THE STURGEON RIVER             
DOWNSTREAM OF PRICKETT DAM AND UPSTREAM OF NAHMA JUNCTION...THE                 
MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR WHICH LAKE AND REPUBLIC...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER             
NEAR LAKE LINDEN...THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR UPPER FALLS...THE                 
CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...THE STAND THE MANISTIQUE RIVER                     
NORTHEAST OF MANISTIQUE. SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR                
FURTHER DETAILS.                                                                
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS PAGE AND CLICK ON A               
RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK AT               
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WAVES OF -RA WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION               
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS KCMX WILL BE NW              
OF THE -RA THRU MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING              
VFR. INTRODUCED -RA INTO FCST IN THE EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT VFR             
CONDITIONS DUE TO INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. AT KSAW...-RA HAS                  
DEVELOPED QUICKER THAN EXPECTED DESPITE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE              
LOW-LEVELS. STILL...IT PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL MID MORNING THAT                 
LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR               
CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VIS IN -RA PRIOR TO MVFR CIGS. ALTHOUGH            
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE -RA FOR SEVERAL HRS IN THE AFTN...CIGS            
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE                  
IFR RANGE IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPING NE                  
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS AT            
OR LESS THAN 20KT. STRONGER SE WINDS...BUT STILL AOB 25 KT COULD                
OCCUR LATE MONDAY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT                
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROLFSON                                                                
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
HYDROLOGY...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
245 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SCATTERED AREAS OF -RA CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS SC/SE MN INTO WI               
WELL AHEAD OF VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WEST OF MKC.  PRECIPITATION            
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SCATTERED DURING THE MORNING BUT BOTH THE NAM             
AND GFS 295K ISENTROPIC SHOW A STRONGER PUSH DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z              
AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. THUS FORECAST HAS HIGHER POPS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON THAN THE MORNING HOURS.  WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL RANGE IN               
MAX TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH AREAS AROUND AXN CLIMBING INTO THE            
LOWER 60S WITH SOME SUN AND THE EAU AND AEL AREAS IN THE LOWER 50S              
UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.                                                       
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF               
AREA AND UPPED POPS A BIT AS FAR WEST AS EC MN WITH ISENTROPIC STILL            
SHOWING SOME UPGLIDE AND HIGH RH AND 850 MB STILL SHOWING COOL                  
CYCLONIC FLOW. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY AS SLOW MOVING UPPER             
LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF WELL TO THE EAST. CU RULES DO SHOW POTENTIAL              
OF BKN CU DEVELOPING THOUGH ON SUNDAY.  RESPITE FROM CLOUDS AND                 
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BRIEF WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MONDAY.             
TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE WARMING UP IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH COOL             
WNW FLOW THRU MOST OF PERIOD AND SHOWER CHANCES.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO SC MN INTO WC WISC AS                  
RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THAT AREA...INCLUDING KEAU. LATEST NAM           
AND RUC DO SHOW SLOW NWD MOVEMENT INTO KRNH AND THEN KMSP...AND                 
RADAR DOES CONFIRM THAT. THUS HAVE BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN INTO KRNH                 
AFTER DAYBREAK AND KMSP LATE IN THE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE             
BY LATE MORNING AT KEAU AND MID AFTERNOON AT KRNH AND KMSP. LOOKS               
LIKE KRWF AND KSTC WILL JUST MISS OUT ON PRECIP AND SHOULD JUST                 
SEE OVERCAST MID CLOUDS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1204 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAIN BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH              
CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. NAM 295K THETA               
SURFACE SHOWING STRONG UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. THIS IS                 
ALONG A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENESIS IN               
THE 600-700 MB LAYER IS SHOWN IN THIS SAME AREA. SOME LIGHTNING                 
STRIKES AS WELL NEAR KRST AND KSLB AT MID AFTERNOON. RUC BEST LI                
CAPTURES THE INSTABILITY WELL AND SHOWS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE               
KEAU AREA VULNERABLE FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING.                                  
THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT WHICH LASTS THROUGH A PORTION OF FRIDAY MORNING.                       
HENCE...A DECREASE IN POPS SHOWN. THEN THE UPGLIDE RETURNS FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR ABOUT THE SAME AREA WITH LIKELY TO                  
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A TIME. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW                 
PRESSURE ALOFT ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CO/NM THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT TO OUR SOUTH              
AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING WEST CENTRAL WI IN                 
THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH PART OF SATURDAY. THE WHOLE PATTERN IS                 
BACKED UP DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE WEST ATLANTIC AND A                   
BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GREENLAND. SLOW                 
MOVEMENT ARE THE KEY WORDS FOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.                             
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST DAY WEATHERWISE IF THINGS CREEP ALONG AS              
FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE                        
SOUTHEAST AS A MAMMOTH UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES                
BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL                
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE                 
LOW IS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN              
CWA BY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED                
WITH THE FROPA.                                                                 
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD IS UNSETTLED. BASICALLY...THE               
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE                  
SHORT WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BOUTS OF                     
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SHOWER CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND                     
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
THE RAIN/CLOUDS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN                 
AREAS WILL HOLD THINGS BACK A LITTLE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO SC MN INTO WC WISC AS                  
RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THAT AREA...INCLUDING KEAU. LATEST NAM           
AND RUC DO SHOW SLOW NWD MOVEMENT INTO KRNH AND THEN KMSP...AND                 
RADAR DOES CONFIRM THAT. THUS HAVE BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN INTO KRNH                 
AFTER DAYBREAK AND KMSP LATE IN THE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE             
BY LATE MORNING AT KEAU AND MID AFTERNOON AT KRNH AND KMSP. LOOKS               
LIKE KRWF AND KSTC WILL JUST MISS OUT ON PRECIP AND SHOULD JUST                 
SEE OVERCAST MID CLOUDS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADARS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SW AND             
CNTRL WI THAT WAS CONTINUING TO EXPAND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE PCPN            
WAS SUPPORTED BY A 850-600 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION AND 300K ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT. RADAR TRENDS AND THE 12Z            
NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL PIVOT A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST             
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM CNTRL OR W CNTRL UPPER MI.                      
OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH               
SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS             
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN U.S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN WI AND THIS SHORTWAVE HAS KICKED OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS            
THE U.P. THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE            
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY HEADING EAST ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.                
NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE                 
TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING LATE SAT INTO SUN              
WITH THE MOISTURE ALSO MOVING OUT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NAM                   
SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I290K-I305K SURFACES OVERNIGHT WITH             
STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH TODAY. NAM SHOWS THE LOW               
LEVELS OVER THE EAST DRYING OUT TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT                  
REMAINING OVER THE WEST HALF THROUGH SAT. GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM             
WITH THE MOISTURE A BIT NARROWER AND LIFT ON I290K AND I300K NOT AS             
STRONG AS THE NAM.                                                              
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. NAM            
AND GFS BOTH SHOW QPF AXIS SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME TODAY AND HAD            
TO MOVE POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MOISTURE AND              
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WEST. NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS SHIFTING TO THE              
WEST AND BOTH SHOW THE EAST DRYING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS                   
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. WENT WITH THE LOWEST POPS THERE. OTHER CHANGE            
I DID IS REMOVE POPS ON SUN AND MON WITH NEXT SYSTEM DELAYED A BIT.             
WITH LESS POPS OVER THE EAST...RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT. GOING                 
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST PART...BUT RAISED THEM A BIT              
FOR SUN AND MON WITH MORE SUNSHINE...LESS CLOUDS AND LESS PCPN.                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY... (ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT)                                            
MOST RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN EITHER HOLDING OR CLIMBING THROUGH THE              
NIGHT...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY              
ON THE SLOW RESPONSE RIVERS. RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE                 
SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE U.P. HAS HELPED IN INCREASING THE RIVER                 
LEVELS. A NEW PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP...THOUGH...AND THAT              
IS A LARGE RAIN MASS OVER SW WI HEADING NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE                   
DEPICTING THAT A WIDESPREAD 0.5 INCH OF QPF APPEARS LIKELY FROM THIS            
AFTERNOON WHEN THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WHEN IT EXITS SATURDAY                   
EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE INDICATED            
IN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD              
CAUSE SOME OF THE SHORT RESPONSE RIVERS TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.                
AFTER THIS RAIN...A TRANSITION TO ALMOST EARLY SUMMERTIME WEATHER               
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON                  
TUESDAY THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY                   
RAINFALL. IMAGINE THAT THE RAIN COMBINED WITH THE UPCOMING WARMUP               
WILL MELT MOST IF NOT ALL THE SNOW ACROSS UPPER MI. THEREFORE...                
MANY RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT                    
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE SLOW RESPONDING RIVERS SUCH AS THE MICHIGAMME.            
CURRENT RIVERS OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN THAT ARE BEING WATCHED INCLUDE              
THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR                  
ALSTON AND THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY. ALL THREE OF THESE HAVE              
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY TOUCHING FLOOD STAGE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR             
ALSTON DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE FLOW OUT OF PRICKETT DAM...WHICH IF THE            
HIGHER QPF VALUES MENTIONED EARLIER PAN OUT...THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO            
GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. NEXT RIVERS OF CONCERN BUT REACHING NEAR FLOOD            
STAGE MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA            
JUNCTION AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR UPPER FALLS. FOR THE SLOW               
RESPONSE RIVERS...THOSE THAT ARE BEING WATCHED INCLUDE THE EAST                 
BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR             
WITCH LAKE AND REPUBLIC. FINALLY...THE MANISTIQUE RIVER NORTHEAST OF            
MANISTIQUE REMAINS ABOVE BANKFULL...BUT ITS IMPACTS ARE MINOR IF                
ANY.                                                                            
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                     
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY COME DOWN AT BOTH SITES WITH RAIN OVER                 
CNTRL UPPER MI SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE NW ...THOUGH MORE QUICKLY                
AT SAW WITH AN UPSLOPE NE WIND. IMAGINE THAT BY EARLY                           
EVENING...SAW SHOULD HAVE IFR CIGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SAW COULD GO            
LOWER...BUT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST ON HOW MOIST THE UPSLOPE NE FLOW                
WILL BE. AT CMX...THE NE WIND IS NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER              
CIGS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT CIGS AT MVFR UNTIL LATE EVENING. BOTH            
SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY                   
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH               
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 20KT. STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30            
KT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE            
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
DISCUSSION...GJM                                                                
HYDROLOGY...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADARS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SW AND             
CNTRL WI THAT WAS CONTINUING TO EXPAND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE PCPN            
WAS SUPPORTED BY A 850-600 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION AND 300K ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT. RADAR TRENDS AND THE 12Z            
NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL PIVOT A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST             
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM CNTRL OR W CNTRL UPPER MI.                      
OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH               
SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS             
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN U.S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN WI AND THIS SHORTWAVE HAS KICKED OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS            
THE U.P. THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE            
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY HEADING EAST ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.                
NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE                 
TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING LATE SAT INTO SUN              
WITH THE MOISTURE ALSO MOVING OUT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NAM                   
SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I290K-I305K SURFACES OVERNIGHT WITH             
STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH TODAY. NAM SHOWS THE LOW               
LEVELS OVER THE EAST DRYING OUT TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT                  
REMAINING OVER THE WEST HALF THROUGH SAT. GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM             
WITH THE MOISTURE A BIT NARROWER AND LIFT ON I290K AND I300K NOT AS             
STRONG AS THE NAM.                                                              
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. NAM            
AND GFS BOTH SHOW QPF AXIS SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME TODAY AND HAD            
TO MOVE POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MOISTURE AND              
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WEST. NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS SHIFTING TO THE              
WEST AND BOTH SHOW THE EAST DRYING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS                   
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. WENT WITH THE LOWEST POPS THERE. OTHER CHANGE            
I DID IS REMOVE POPS ON SUN AND MON WITH NEXT SYSTEM DELAYED A BIT.             
WITH LESS POPS OVER THE EAST...RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT. GOING                 
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST PART...BUT RAISED THEM A BIT              
FOR SUN AND MON WITH MORE SUNSHINE...LESS CLOUDS AND LESS PCPN.                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY... (ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT)                                            
MOST RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN EITHER HOLDING OR CLIMBING THROUGH THE              
NIGHT...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY              
ON THE SLOW RESPONSE RIVERS. RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE                 
SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE U.P. HAS HELPED IN INCREASING THE RIVER                 
LEVELS. A NEW PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP...THOUGH...AND THAT              
IS A LARGE RAIN MASS OVER SW WI HEADING NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE                   
DEPICTING THAT A WIDESPREAD 0.5 INCH OF QPF APPEARS LIKELY FROM THIS            
AFTERNOON WHEN THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WHEN IT EXITS SATURDAY                   
EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE INDICATED            
IN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD              
CAUSE SOME OF THE SHORT RESPONSE RIVERS TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.                
AFTER THIS RAIN...A TRANSITION TO ALMOST EARLY SUMMERTIME WEATHER               
APPEARS TO BE IN STORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON                  
TUESDAY THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY                   
RAINFALL. IMAGINE THAT THE RAIN COMBINED WITH THE UPCOMING WARMUP               
WILL MELT MOST IF NOT ALL THE SNOW ACROSS UPPER MI. THEREFORE...                
MANY RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT                    
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE SLOW RESPONDING RIVERS SUCH AS THE MICHIGAMME.            
CURRENT RIVERS OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN THAT ARE BEING WATCHED INCLUDE              
THE TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR LAKE LINDEN...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR                  
ALSTON AND THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY. ALL THREE OF THESE HAVE              
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY TOUCHING FLOOD STAGE. THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR             
ALSTON DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE FLOW OUT OF PRICKETT DAM...WHICH IF THE            
HIGHER QPF VALUES MENTIONED EARLIER PAN OUT...THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO            
GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. NEXT RIVERS OF CONCERN BUT REACHING NEAR FLOOD            
STAGE MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA            
JUNCTION AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR UPPER FALLS. FOR THE SLOW               
RESPONSE RIVERS...THOSE THAT ARE BEING WATCHED INCLUDE THE EAST                 
BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN AND THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR             
WITCH LAKE AND REPUBLIC. FINALLY...THE MANISTIQUE RIVER NORTHEAST OF            
MANISTIQUE REMAINS ABOVE BANKFULL...BUT ITS IMPACTS ARE MINOR IF                
ANY.                                                                            
FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST                     
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS AND ANY FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE             
ISSUED. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST PLEASE VISIT THE AHPS             
PAGE AND CLICK ON A RIVER SITE...THIS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE RIVERS             
AND LAKES LINK AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/UP.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
RAIN THAT AFFECTED SAW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO THE SE               
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LARGE RAIN MASS COVERING NE              
IOWA...FAR SE MN AND SW WI IS HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WEST                
HALF OF UPPER MI. EXTRAPOLATING THE RAIN NORTHEAST AND COMPARING TO             
MODELS WOULD HAVE IT IMPACTING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.             
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN COULD SHIFT JUST WEST OUT OF SAW THIS              
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. EXPECTING CIGS TO            
GRADUALLY COME DOWN AT BOTH SITES...THOUGH QUICKER AT SAW WITH AN               
UPSLOPING NE WIND. IMAGINE THAT BY EARLY EVENING...SAW SHOULD HAVE              
IFR CIGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SAW COULD GO LOWER...BUT UNCERTAINTIES            
EXIST ON HOW MOIST THE UPSLOPE NE FLOW WILL BE. AT CMX...THE NE WIND            
IS NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER CIGS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT             
CIGS AT MVFR. BOTH SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR VISIBILITIES...THOUGH.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH               
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 20KT. STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30            
KT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE            
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
DISCUSSION...GJM                                                                
HYDROLOGY...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAYS GRIDS BASED ON MORNING RUC13. THIS            
RESULTED IN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATION FOR THIS AFTN.             
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS AFTN...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO            
PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER                 
TEMPS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                                     
30                                                                              
-----------------------------------------------                                 
354 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS                
MORNING WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. WITH THE               
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA... THE                     
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE... THE CLOUDS                 
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.                  
THIS MORNING WILL START OFF WITH BREEZY AND COOL WITH                           
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND 40S                       
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE                  
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR EAST TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S IN              
THE WEST.                                                                       
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER                 
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN. ALTHOUGH                 
THE LATEST GFS MOS GENERATES SOME LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...                
WE WILL STAY WITH THE GOING FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER. IT APPEARS                 
THAT THE UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER AVAILABLE TO GENERATE RAIN WILL BE                
VERY HIGH-BASED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BENEATH IT. THE GFS                
GRIDDED FIELDS ALSO DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF.                                    
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE                   
SUNDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE                 
CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY                  
THAT TIME... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW DUE TO A               
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE... THE INCREASE                 
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPER MOISTURE                    
RETURN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE                      
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.                                                        
IN THE LONGER TERM... A LARGE... COMPLEX UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO                
THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE A FEW CHANCES FOR                
T-STORMS NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE VARIOUS ENERGY              
PULSES BEING EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER WAVE IS UNCERTAIN. WHILE A                
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... IT APPEARS               
THAT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SLOW                
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE GFS                 
MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR TUE/WED DOWNWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST                
OKLAHOMA TO REFLECT GFS GRID SOLUTION OF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT                 
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  42  78  56 /   0   0   0  10                              
HOBART OK         67  42  82  56 /   0   0   0  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  45  83  58 /   0   0   0  10                              
GAGE OK           72  36  84  50 /   0   0   0  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  41  76  57 /  10   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK         66  48  80  60 /   0   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/32                                                                           
</pre> ok