FXUS04 KWBC 151007 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
606 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 16/1200 UTC THRU JUN 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...DAY1...

MASS FIELD CHANGES NOTED FROM THE 0000 UTC TO THE 0600 UTC
MODEL RUNS WERE AT THE NOISE LEVEL.   CHANGES FROM THE PRELIM
TO THE FINAL DAY1 PRIMARILY REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA
AND EXTRAPOLATION.


...CONCERNING THE WEAK BROAD TROF OVR THE CNTRL/ERN U.S...

ONCE AGAIN..THE ETA AND GFS MASS FIELDS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AND UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THEIR QPFS ARE IN THE
SAME BALLPARK.    BOTH MODELS INDC THAT MID LVL ENERGY ASOCTD
WITH TWO UPPER VORTS...ONE NOW MOVG EWD ACROSS THE OH VLY AND
A SECOND MOVG SLOWLY EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS...WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING AREAS OF SHWRS.   A CHANNEL OF VERY
DEEP-LAYERED MSTR/VERY HI PWS FM THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD TO
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND THEN EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT CNVCTV RAINS AHEAD OF THESE MID LVL FEATURES. 
INVOF THE CNTRL APLCNS...THE MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.   STG LVL MSTR CNVGNC IS INDCTD HERE INVOF AN E/W
ORIENTED SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LONG
DURATION VERY HVY RNFL EVENT AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
CHANGES LITTLE THRU THE PD.   TO THE SOUTHWEST...FVBL RT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THIS AFTN
WHICH COULD ENHANCE CNVCTN OVR PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS AND TN
VLYS.   SHWRS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR INVOF THE EWD ADVANCING SRN
PLAINS UPPER VORT AND ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVR SOUTH TX WHERE
WEAK MCS DVLPMNT UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.   

...NRN PLAINS...

MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SCTD CNVCTN WILL SPREAD EWD FM MT
AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A WEAK CDFNT AS SHRTWV ENERGY
STREAKS EWD ALG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS.   THE MODEL QPFS ARE
IN GNRL AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF PCPN BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO
HAVE PCPN FEEDBACK PROBLEMS INVOF THE MT/ND BORDER THIS EVNG
AND TNGT.   THE ETA QPF APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON BOTH THE
ETA AND GFS MASS FIELD FCSTS.



DAY 2...

...SERN U.S.....

MDT TO HVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MD MS VLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
MOVING ANYTIME SOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VARIETY OF S/WV'S
MOVING THRU THE REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DIRUNAL
CONVECTION.  WITH PW'S EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1.75 WITH A 15 TO 20 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THE MSTR UP INTO THE LADDERS. THE GFS IS
STRONGER WITH THE MID-LVL CENTER THAT DROPS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES .   BUT THIS SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE SFC. 
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
QPF'S WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FASTER TO PUSH THE PCPN TO THE SE. 
WHILE THE UKMET LOOKS FASTER.. THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER.  SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ETA AND THE GFS.

...NRN PLNS...

A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND THRU
THE DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT SOME FAIRLY DECENT RAINS IN A BAND
FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO ERN WY.

DAY3....

THE ETA AND GFS ARE SHOWING A FEW MORE DIFFERENCES IN THEIR
MASS FIELDS THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX REMAINING FROM THE SYSTEM THAT DROPPED OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON DAY1.  AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE GFS
DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT MORE PCPN OVER THE SE THAN THE WEAKER ETA.
HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH... SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SOMETHING OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ETA AND
GFS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OVER THE SRN APLCHNS WHERE THE 20 TO 30 TS OF LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PRODUCE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW.

ANOTHER WEAK S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACRS THE
NRN PLNS WILL PRODUCE SOME LT TO MDT PCPN. COMPROMISED HERE. 


KORTY/ROBSON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 479613 476605 473601 468595 464593 460590 455590 449595 
      444601 440607 439612 439618 440627 442639 444646 448653 
      451657 454665 457673 457679 456685 454691 451698 450704 
      451709 453714 457718 462718 468716 471715 473712 476707 
      478701 484673 486660 486644 484631 480614 479613 
 0.01 539207 539206 539202 537196 535193 532191 529193 528194 
      527198 527203 527206 527208 529213 529217 530219 531222 
      535220 536216 538211 539208 539207 
 0.01 520264 521257 521253 520249 516244 512243 509245 507252 
      508258 505258 497255 494260 494267 496274 501284 506288 
      510284 515276 519265 520264 
 0.01 524957 523946 519939 518935 518931 520922 520914 518904 
      515902 512903 506906 499912 494918 490923 486930 477941 
      468952 452973 444987 440003 437020 436023 435028 436034 
      438038 441043 441051 439057 433061 428059 424056 423065 
      427071 437080 447086 447089 445089 441089 437091 433091 
      430088 427090 428094 430101 430104 427107 423114 421121 
      423126 425127 434121 440120 445123 448130 451137 456141 
      462144 466143 468140 468137 468132 466127 471132 476136 
      479136 482134 480125 475120 476114 481108 484098 486091 
      491077 494067 496057 499041 504020 506011 509003 519981 
      523969 524957 
 0.01 449969 448965 446964 442961 432953 422948 413944 407942 
      401941 395944 395952 397960 401965 404970 408973 413976 
      420977 424979 432978 439977 444974 448972 449969 
 0.01 384719 381715 376706 372699 366694 360697 356701 355704 
      351716 347721 341728 338735 337741 334753 330766 325777 
      319789 315795 313797 310799 303802 297801 286797 276795 
      269795 263797 258795 250794 246795 243799 242805 243814 
      254833 263838 274841 281842 286841 294839 297840 297843 
      297851 297858 295865 293871 288884 284893 272918 265941 
      252960 245968 242973 240980 240985 243993 248003 254015 
      261023 279039 287045 293048 299050 314054 319055 322062 
      325064 328065 336065 342066 347068 354071 363071 371070 
      377068 385066 390065 392064 394061 393057 390051 385046 
      381045 376045 368044 362042 357040 354038 352037 340031 
      335031 327029 321027 316023 312020 307014 302005 298999 
      299994 304991 312990 316989 319986 323982 336975 347968 
      354964 358960 361952 363945 365940 366933 369921 375907 
      378901 378892 380885 382877 392848 396836 399820 400803 
      400785 398777 397769 392750 390741 387732 384719 
 0.01 328835 328831 326828 322828 317830 312833 309835 309842 
      310848 314851 317853 320851 324847 326843 327838 328835 
 0.25 508966 508956 505949 502945 499944 495946 491950 485957 
      482963 480967 478972 474977 470982 468987 467991 470995 
      471000 475003 477012 477016 475019 461030 454039 452043 
      453048 457051 462051 467046 473037 478024 480020 484019 
      489014 491010 500988 504976 508966 
 0.25 473098 474089 475081 473073 471077 467081 464085 461089 
      460097 458101 458106 461108 464109 469106 472102 473098 
 0.25 457068 457064 456060 456058 453058 452060 450064 450068 
      453071 456069 457068 
 0.25 393791 391778 385765 377747 367727 365726 362727 357729 
      351736 346743 343752 341760 339768 338778 339783 342786 
      348791 351795 353799 354808 353818 349835 347844 345852 
      342859 338866 331872 323874 321871 316871 311867 306867 
      304870 300877 293893 290900 287908 283923 272955 269961 
      264966 254976 250979 249984 249990 252998 256004 260010 
      265016 270021 277024 280025 286025 288024 288018 285010 
      287003 287992 288988 290984 295979 304977 309974 315967 
      320962 331960 339955 345949 349942 350932 352923 355914 
      362900 366891 369883 375867 381849 386833 390822 392810 
      393799 393791 
 0.25 350055 350051 349050 347049 345048 344047 341046 338047 
      336048 336051 335052 333054 332055 333057 333058 335059 
      338059 341058 344056 347056 349055 350055 
 0.25 300821 293819 284818 277815 274813 271810 263807 255807 
      253811 254814 257819 262826 268831 277833 285832 295827 
      300821 
 0.50 388785 386776 382769 374754 367741 362737 356740 353744 
      350751 346761 344769 345776 347781 352784 356790 357796 
      358805 358811 354839 354847 353854 347865 340876 330885 
      321892 315896 308899 296905 293910 291915 289920 287927 
      285940 283947 282952 284958 286960 289959 289964 289968 
      292968 300967 305965 311954 312947 315942 322932 331924 
      338914 346906 355895 360884 372860 376846 381835 385820 
      388807 389795 388785 
 0.50 310878 309875 308875 305876 305877 303879 302881 301883 
      300885 299887 299888 300890 303890 305887 307884 308882 
      309880 310878 
 0.50 283825 279820 276819 272818 269816 265813 262812 259811 
      260815 262817 265821 268824 272826 275827 278827 281827 
      283825 
 0.50 280000 281996 280991 276985 273982 269981 266984 263990 
      257987 254987 253991 255997 259002 264008 267012 273016 
      277014 278012 279004 280000 
 1.00 384791 381781 377776 371772 368772 365770 360765 356760 
      354760 353764 354772 356777 359781 362791 364797 365804 
      365812 365820 364825 365830 368835 371836 374833 378825 
      383811 384803 384795 384791 
 1.50 381801 380793 377787 374785 369783 366784 367788 368795 
      369802 370806 371809 375813 377810 380805 381801 
 2.00 377799 377795 375792 374792 373793 373797 373801 375803 
      377800 377799  
 
24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 492001 500981 515934 521893 513874 499872 472904 460928 
      455940 438980 428001 419015 416020 413022 409026 403030 
      394034 385035 380036 375036 372032 368031 361033 356033 
      353032 347031 341033 338035 335040 332044 330046 326055 
      321057 315058 304059 295059 289063 287067 286074 289078 
      294081 303082 308083 310088 313090 319091 330089 338088 
      345083 352077 355075 362075 372075 378081 385087 388092 
      393093 396095 398099 400103 404105 409107 412112 414115 
      418114 425109 429106 431105 435105 440109 444112 450119 
      458123 467126 473127 480128 483125 482120 479115 474107 
      468098 462089 461083 462078 469058 473046 478033 481024 
      487013 492001 
 0.01 399788 398779 395771 388760 376743 369733 360723 353718 
      343714 326707 322707 321710 321714 322720 321745 319764 
      315787 314792 312796 306798 300798 296796 288790 284788 
      278788 269790 249791 242793 238801 238811 239821 248842 
      252846 256847 261849 266849 274850 283850 287850 291853 
      293861 293869 293875 290884 283906 278922 277928 277932 
      274946 269954 265960 258967 252975 248983 246990 246997 
      247003 253010 262014 270013 280009 288003 294998 299995 
      302994 307994 311997 320003 325002 327998 332990 336980 
      341969 345949 347936 351927 362909 367897 371887 378869 
      390851 394846 395844 396839 392823 395814 397805 399788 
 0.25 498936 499928 498920 496917 492918 486925 482931 474947 
      469956 465965 462972 458980 448994 444000 439005 431010 
      427017 423024 418029 412035 406042 405044 406050 409051 
      413052 420054 424057 425060 432065 436072 441077 445077 
      447073 453056 458038 467022 474004 488970 494952 497942 
      498936 
 0.25 390788 390784 388781 385775 381765 376755 373752 370751 
      365754 362748 356738 350733 345732 341732 338736 337741 
      336752 335767 335774 334778 331787 327796 323802 316810 
      309815 295815 287813 281808 273803 270801 267801 264800 
      258802 253802 248805 245811 245815 247819 252827 255829 
      257831 260830 267828 271829 275831 283834 292835 297836 
      304840 310847 312851 313858 312867 310875 307885 303893 
      297905 293915 291923 291933 289942 285951 281959 272970 
      267977 265984 264990 266993 272995 276993 283987 288980 
      296969 301961 305953 310945 312943 315947 318950 322950 
      327948 328944 334930 338921 342912 350897 359880 367866 
      373857 378848 381839 382829 382817 384807 387794 390788 
 0.25 379066 388065 391062 390060 384057 374054 366049 364047 
      358045 349048 344049 338051 335053 335058 338060 340065 
      344066 349065 358064 369062 379066 
 0.50 490938 489933 486934 483939 476952 471958 468965 465973 
      462979 453995 436017 427029 424038 428044 430048 433056 
      441064 445062 444055 443050 444044 446039 452027 459013 
      463005 466000 474988 481972 486959 488951 490941 490938 
 0.50 386786 382783 378781 372789 368792 364792 362791 361788 
      361783 358760 357751 354743 350739 344741 342746 341752 
      340762 341773 340780 339785 338797 339804 338808 335818 
      333829 332835 330840 326848 324854 324859 323864 321869 
      313887 308897 303905 298914 296924 299928 304931 310931 
      315927 325923 331917 338908 342899 346888 350880 356870 
      360862 367852 372843 374838 374831 372824 371820 372816 
      375814 378810 381802 385794 386786 
 0.50 355051 352051 355051 355051 
 1.00 354757 353750 350747 347747 347750 346754 345760 345765 
      347772 347775 348782 351781 352777 353772 354767 354761 
      354757 
 1.00 361828 361825 360822 359821 356819 355819 352819 351822 
      351824 351825 350830 349830 349834 349837 352840 355839 
      355838 357837 359833 361829 361828 
 1.00 337884 337879 334876 328880 324884 320891 317897 314902 
      310908 310915 312916 316915 321910 326907 331902 334895 
      336888 337884  
 
24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 486669 483657 480652 477649 475648 471650 467657 465667 
      466677 466686 468695 472704 477712 480713 484708 486700 
      488692 488683 486670 486669 
 0.01 520911 522890 522872 519859 513848 501843 492858 483883 
      476908 464917 460918 451912 448912 445914 442917 427938 
      420950 415957 410965 403973 396981 390993 383002 376009 
      368015 357019 349021 337022 326026 322029 318034 315042 
      311046 304047 298047 292049 293055 294059 299067 304075 
      311081 321086 330089 337090 343089 347088 353086 360079 
      364071 365065 366058 369054 377055 385054 392055 395060 
      396064 397069 396075 396079 396083 403094 409101 412103 
      417104 429104 436108 441108 446111 451110 455105 456097 
      455080 450068 449064 447061 444058 439057 438053 437045 
      436036 438021 439014 441009 448998 452991 456988 471969 
      474967 478967 478974 477981 479990 482994 486993 489988 
      496975 501963 507948 510937 514925 520911 
 0.01 394721 391713 388705 381697 374690 372687