FXUS04 KWBC 080657
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 AM EST WED DEC 08 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 08/1200 UTC THRU DEC 09/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 

PAC NW/NRN CA...

OVERALL GOOD AGRMNT IN THE LATEST ETA...GFS AND ETA/RSM SREF
MEMBERS ON THE CONTINUING HEAVY PCPN EVENT FOR THE PAC NW
INTO NRN CA.  STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WL PERSIST THRU
AT LEAST 0000 UTC DEC 9...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOC WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NERN PAC UPR RIDGE.  STRONG WSWLY TO WLY ONSHORE
FLOW OF 40-50KTS+ WL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL HVY RAINFALL
AMTS....ESPECIALLY THRU 0000 UTC DEC 9.  STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD AFFECT THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE OF CNTRL TO SRN
OR..SWD INTO THE COAST RANGE OF NWRN CA...NRN SIERRA AND
SHASTA/SISKIYOU.   ACRS THESE AREAS...AREAL AVG 2"+ AMTS ARE
LIKELY...WITH MAX 4-5"+ AMTS POSSIBLE IN MOST FAVORED TERRAIN
AREAS OF NWRN WA AND SWRN OR.  FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE
NRN OR CASCADES...NRN OR COAST RANGE...WA CASCADES AND WA
COAST RANGE/OLYMPICS...AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS OF .75-1"+ EXPECTED
DAY 1.

INLAND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GTBASIN...

MODELS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT IN SHOWING STRENGTHENING
UVVS THIS MORNING AS HT FALL PUSH INLAND THRU THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE
UVVS WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HVY PCPN AMTS THRU NRN TO CNTRL
ID...NWRN MT...ERN ID/WRN WY AND INTO THE WASATCH OF NRN UT.

GULF COAST...

SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. TODAY AND INTO THE
SRN PLAINS WED EVENING WL HELP TO STRENGTHEN UVVS ALONG A NWD
MOVG WARM FRONT ACRS THE GULF COAST.  INCREASINGLY MOIST SWLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU ACRS THE WRN TO CNTRL GULF COAST...LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY.  HEAVIEST PCPN AMTS IN THE 1-2"
RANGE WERE DEPICTED ACRS SRN LA INTO SWRN MS WHERE MODELS
WERE DEPICTING BEST RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOC
BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE. 

NERN U.S...

HT FALLS WL BE MOVG STEADILY NEWD WED THRU NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.   HEAVIEST PCPN DAY 1 WITH THESE HT
FALLS WL BE ACRS THE CANADIAN MARTIMES WITH ONLY LIGHT WRAP
ARND AFFECTING NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. 


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 477757 493749 507728 513693 510658 499622 485593 480589 
      478588 474588 468593 465590 462592 457598 451605 443609 
      438613 436619 435626 438637 440645 443653 447664 448672 
      445679 444683 443689 445696 445703 440711 436715 429720 
      426723 425726 426730 425735 423741 420749 420753 422755 
      425759 425763 423768 420776 415780 407784 401789 389799 
      385804 384807 385810 391812 398812 403814 409814 417811 
      422809 433813 438812 441808 445803 447796 448787 449772 
      451767 453764 459760 465758 473758 477757 
 0.01 351215 359226 384250 423268 470281 492297 504289 517270 
      532231 538194 540164 543142 542109 539078 533035 531027 
      527012 508960 491926 480915 466919 467942 477965 484980 
      487995 486002 487012 488024 490031 491040 494049 494054 
      494072 495083 496086 498086 503090 503096 498096 491095 
      482094 475092 469089 460083 453075 444068 441069 441073 
      443078 445083 444085 438084 433080 427072 426056 416050 
      410049 403049 398050 393053 389057 385060 382061 378061 
      368060 364063 364066 368077 372090 375100 374115 374124 
      375131 374138 373144 374151 377155 385164 397181 396185 
      393187 388187 380182 360175 353173 350174 349175 345185 
      342192 343199 348207 351215 
 0.01 381843 379835 377830 375826 371821 367819 362817 358817 
      356820 349827 339834 329839 322847 319850 316849 312847 
      307846 303846 296849 293851 291855 287874 288878 284886 
      276909 269935 270943 275958 285968 298968 350929 352925 
      359916 364908 366899 367886 367880 369876 374868 378859 
      381850 381843 
 0.25 499631 497623 493616 485603 482600 478596 475597 471600 
      459623 455627 453633 453639 455644 461671 463683 465692 
      463698 462702 462709 463713 466714 470715 478716 483715 
      488711 500689 501664 504653 502643 499635 499631 
 0.25 528203 530199 530194 529189 525178 520168 514160 505153 
      500146 492135 487129 478123 473121 469121 463121 461118 
      456105 455101 452097 448094 443093 437093 432092 427088 
      424092 424096 425100 423101 421104 418107 415107 409099 
      406098 404102 401106 396109 389113 385116 383120 386123 
      388123 394123 405125 412127 414131 415135 415139 413153 
      413161 415165 423169 426171 428176 428181 427185 423190 
      416195 412200 407202 404201 395197 387193 379188 375186 
      369185 365185 363189 364192 367200 366205 363207 356209 
      355213 359216 370230 385243 393248 398251 402253 422255 
      444258 461259 471260 480262 493275 500282 504281 508278 
      511275 515269 517263 519254 518248 517242 513232 508222 
      502214 494204 488200 478200 474202 468203 462203 457201 
      456195 458190 464183 468179 471179 479182 486185 491186 
      497188 502191 510197 522206 526206 528203 
 0.25 413072 414066 412064 407060 401061 392064 388068 384073 
      380074 376075 376081 378084 384088 387087 389085 394083 
      398082 404079 410076 413072 
 0.25 361873 358865 355859 346849 341847 338849 331854 327858 
      317866 308874 299882 291890 288896 286902 282913 281926 
      282936 284942 287948 289954 291956 295955 300953 311947 
      318943 322939 327928 330922 334916 340907 347897 355887 
      358881 360875 361873 
 0.50 496628 495624 493621 491617 483606 479603 476606 474617 
      474629 474632 472635 469636 467641 467645 470654 473665 
      478676 483680 485675 487672 489670 491665 493661 495658 
      498656 500653 501647 500641 497638 497633 496628 
 0.50 513266 516259 516253 514244 512236 508228 500214 494208 
      486204 479203 472206 465207 457206 451205 449201 450195 
      452193 454188 456185 459182 461179 462173 463169 465169 
      473170 479174 486179 492180 500181 506183 514188 518188 
      518184 515177 513174 508171 502166 497163 482154 475150 
      473146 471145 468142 464140 455140 451138 449135 445130 
      440125 437124 435128 431134 429142 430151 433159 437165 
      442174 442180 438188 435197 433200 431201 423200 419201 
      418206 416208 412210 405206 400202 391198 380192 375190 
      372190 371195 372198 374227 378234 382238 395247 403250 
      413252 418252 428253 441252 454251 461250 470252 479256 
      484261 500277 503277 505275 509271 513266 
 0.50 506258 504253 501247 498244 496239 494235 489230 486227 
      480225 477225 480228 482232 485235 488236 490239 493244 
      497250 500254 502258 506258 
 0.50 494149 494144 492139 489135 488134 486132 484130 481129 
      478127 475127 472128 471128 469132 469136 469141 471144 
      474145 477145 480145 483146 485147 488150 491151 494149 
 0.50 450117 451112 450105 447099 432096 423105 419111 413110 
      409105 406106 403108 397111 394113 391116 400121 404122 
      408122 411122 418126 422131 425131 428128 431123 434120 
      437119 446121 450117 
 0.50 353875 351872 345872 334875 324879 313884 298892 293896 
      291899 288908 286917 286927 289936 292942 295944 298945 
      303943 311938 316932 321924 325917 330910 336902 341896 
      348889 351885 352879 353875 
 1.00 507245 507244 506239 505238 503234 503233 501230 500228 
      498224 498223 496218 496217 494215 491216 490220 493223 
      494226 495228 496231 497233 499237 502241 503243 504245 
      507245 507245 
 1.00 500265 498263 496260 496259 494255 493253 491250 490248 
      489245 487243 483244 481244 479244 480245 482249 483250 
      485253 486255 487257 490260 491262 492263 495265 498267 
      500265 
 1.00 465221 463216 460213 457213 446213 440213 434212 428207 
      424205 422210 421214 418216 405210 397204 392201 387199 
      383198 381199 380202 384214 385220 385228 387233 389237 
      392240 398245 404248 411249 423250 435250 443247 451243 
      456240 454236 451235 445233 448229 453226 458225 462225 
      465221 
 1.00 457160 457156 456154 452151 447149 443145 439141 436139 
      434144 434152 436156 440161 443164 446167 448169 451168 
      455164 457160 
 1.00 404118 412120 415119 416118 412113 409111 405110 404114 
      404118 
 1.00 330896 331893 329891 323892 312895 302899 297901 294904 
      291913 290923 293928 296930 299932 305930 310925 316917 
      321909 325903 330896 
 1.50 449225 450222 449219 444217 436217 427218 421225 418224 
      418221 416217 413214 408214 392203 390201 387202 386205 
      387209 391214 398219 401223 401228 396230 394233 395238 
      397242 405246 423249 431248 438246 442244 443239 440234 
      441231 444230 449225 
 1.50 449163 451159 450156 448154 447153 444151 442149 441148 
      439145 439144 438145 437148 437152 438156 440157 441157 
      444159 446160 449163 449163 
 1.50 319903 317901 314902 311901 305903 300904 298906 295909 
      294916 293919 293922 295925 298925 304924 306922 309918 
      313915 315911 317907 319903 
 2.00 446224 445222 442221 439221 437222 436222 433224 431224 
      433226 435228 438228 441228 442227 444226 446224 
 2.00 433245 435241 433237 428235 419233 414228 414219 404213 
      394206 392206 391208 393213 397216 404220 407224 407228 
      407233 404235 400234 398238 402242 406244 417247 424248 
      429247 433245 
 2.00 311911 310910 307911 304912 302914 299916 298918 297921 
      298921 300921 303920 304920 305918 308916 309915 310913 
      311911 
 3.00 429244 430240 428238 425236 422236 419235 417233 414233 
      411233 410234 408237 407241 409243 412244 415245 417245 
      420246 423246 424246 426246 429244 
 4.00 428243 427241 426239 425238 422237 419236 416235 415235 
      413236 411238 412241 415242 418243 421244 424244 427244 
      428243 
 5.00 425242 424241 421240 418240 417240 418241 421242 424243 
      425242  
 
N$$