FXUS63 KABR 161636 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UCORRECTED TO ADD ID
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1135 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

.UPDATE...OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST DOES NOT NEED MUCH MAINTENANCE. 
UPDATING FOR TEMPS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. 850HPA TEMPS 
REMAIN UNCHANGED. LIGHT ESE WINDS ACROSS CWA TODAY...BUT DO NOT FEEL 
THAT THIS WILL SUBDUE EXTREME HEAT AGAIN TODAY. WITH READINGS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 90S EXPERIENCED OVER EASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH EVEN 
HIGHER HEAT INDICES...EXPECTING SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY WITH 100 
PERCENT SUNSHINE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOW DEPARTING CWA AND HEADED 
SOUTH OF HERE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.   DORN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A 
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BUT 
NOT END UP BEING MUCH OF A PLAYER.  A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST 
COMES ON SHORE AND DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN 
MONTANA BY TONIGHT.  SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE 
ROCKIES AND MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA.  SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES RATHER 
PERSISTENT THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WYOMING.  WILL 
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS 
SURFACE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ALOFT REMAIN IN THE AREA.  THESE GRIDS 
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER RUNS AND MAYBE EXTENDED IN TIME 
BECAUSE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THIS COUNTY 
WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AFTER THAT IT APPEARS THE H5 RIDGE 
WILL REFORM AND SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SLIP OVER THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARM TODAY WITH GOOD SUNSHINE. H85 
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 
NORMAL.  

CURRENT GFS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS 
NOW WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON 
TUESDAY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AT THAT TIME...THEN MOVING 
THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL THROW IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH 
THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.


.ABR...NONE
KEEFE/PARKIN