FXUS04 KWBC 130630
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 13/1200 UTC THRU SEP 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


...DAY 1...


...PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES...

MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE SHRTWV TROF
NOW APCHG THE COAST.  IN ADDITION TO PCPN WITH THE ASOCTD
FRONTAL BAND...SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVR THE PACIFIC NW AS LLVL
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES UNDER CD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.   SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES EXISTS BTWN MODEL QPF DETAILS  THOUGH THEY
GNLY SUPPORT LGT TO MDT PCPN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY...

MODELS HAVE SOME MINOR MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE
GFS A BIT  FASTER AND AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV MOVG
INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN.   THE GFS SEEMS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE IN THIS REGARD GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE  A BETTER
INITIALIZATION.   HOWEVER...THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH IS RESULTING IN TOO HEAVY OF A QPF ACROSS
ND.   THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AGREE THAT THIS
SHRTWV TROF AND ITS ASOCTD CDFNT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MDT TO
HVY SHWRS BY LATER THIS AFTN EVNG AS A LLVL JET IMPINGES ON THE
FEATURE RESULTING IN STG MSTR CNVGNC.  STG RT ENTRANCE REGION
JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE TO ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND AID CNVCTV DVLPMNT.

...SERN U.S./GULF COAST

PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED ALONG A NE/SW AXIS OF MID LVL
CYCLONIC SHEAR WILL FIRE SHWRS ACROSS THIS REGION NEAR THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND AXIS OF HI RH.   FOR THE MOST PART
BROAD BRUSHED THE QPF ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT.  THE WEAK
UPPER VORTEX INVOF THE LWR OH/TN VLY SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS NWD ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST WITH
TIME ALONG WITH ITS ASOCTD SHWR ACTVTY.  IN REGARD TO THE WEAK
VORTEX...WOULD EXPECT  ISOLD SHWR ACTVTY TO CONTINUE WITH IT
BUT AGAIN HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON QPF SPECIFICS.

...SRN FL...

SOME BANDS OF SHWRS WILL BE DVLPNG IN THE DEEP-LAYERED
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF IVAN OVR SRN FL BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PD.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 538213 537201 535193 532185 529178 521164 518157 513152 
      505145 502141 502135 501127 496107 494099 492093 492086 
      492079 494073 496064 503050 506033 508023 509013 510006 
      512997 517983 524963 527957 532946 535926 535916 535910 
      534903 528884 528877 527871 523864 519857 515853 511850 
      503853 495857 490861 482867 476871 469878 464882 454892 
      451894 448898 443902 435911 418931 409940 405947 400955 
      398970 397979 395987 394995 395004 398010 401015 403022 
      403029 403036 401044 397049 394056 391061 384060 384072 
      383076 385079 389083 392099 395099 396097 398091 401084 
      406080 411078 415074 421068 424069 426066 428064 427058 
      424051 420049 419045 417038 418020 420014 424008 428002 
      432999 441991 448990 449992 451998 450004 449010 447018 
      444024 438030 436034 435039 436043 439051 440056 438057 
      435059 433063 432071 434076 438082 438085 433088 427086 
      426088 426093 429110 440121 441123 440128 437132 433140 
      431144 430149 430158 432163 434164 437169 440176 438183 
      436187 436193 438200 439207 435208 431207 424205 423210 
      426214 426219 421246 429249 435250 442249 446249 454252 
      462254 472260 479265 484270 487274 489278 495283 500289 
      505292 510291 515286 523261 523260 523256 523251 522247 
      521245 520240 517237 516233 515232 514228 516224 516223 
      519220 520220 522221 525224 528228 530229 531229 534226 
      535225 
 0.01 361749 355735 353731 349729 342729 338733 336737 333742 
      329745 324744 321745 318747 317752 315762 314772 312781 
      309785 304788 298792 288794 280794 271794 261792 257790 
      254787 248780 243774 237774 233777 227785 225788 225794 
      228812 231821 236830 248843 260856 266863 271871 273877 
      273883 272893 271902 269912 258948 256958 255969 255979 
      257987 260990 267990 273989 277988 283984 290977 293973 
      295968 298959 300950 301940 302928 303920 307912 313901 
      315897 319894 325894 329895 345902 354902 365900 370898 
      373894 380883 383872 385866 385862 382855 379854 372859 
      368863 362867 359870 355870 349865 346862 344861 344857 
      353851 361844 366837 371828 374817 375813 377811 378805 
      375803 372801 372798 372786 367778 364769 361749 
 0.25 513271 514267 515263 515257 514251 512246 509236 504225 
      502216 500210 498205 491200 481198 478199 474202 468208 
      461211 455216 447220 449224 454223 463229 463239 473243 
      480248 488256 491260 495262 502268 507272 512272 513271 
 0.25 519915 519905 517896 512884 508882 505882 494885 483891 
      475896 466901 457908 441921 433928 427934 419943 414950 
      409960 407969 405981 405989 405992 407995 410996 417996 
      424992 433986 440980 449974 457970 463969 469969 472971 
      474977 474986 473992 472007 470021 469025 469033 470038 
      473042 475041 479037 482033 487022 491010 497984 501972 
      505962 514941 518927 519915 
 0.25 508179 507174 504171 502168 499164 488155 484152 483148 
      479142 485138 477134 472130 469132 464129 461131 457135 
      453137 452142 450154 450159 455164 463169 469171 475170 
      480175 485181 491185 497186 503182 508179 
 0.25 345766 343763 340759 337759 334760 327766 322771 316787 
      312793 307799 301804 293808 288811 287815 289825 290842 
      290851 288859 285873 282890 283901 284908 285911 287915 
      293913 299906 302901 310885 317873 320864 321855 322848 
      324840 330826 342796 345787 347780 346770 345766 
 0.25 271836 269829 266824 259815 257808 253803 247795 243791 
      237790 235795 234800 236812 240822 248832 256838 264842 
      269840 271836 
 0.25 286953 286949 285946 285945 283947 282948 282950 282953 
      283955 286953 286953 
 0.50 510932 510925 508918 506910 505902 501898 497897 492898 
      484899 476904 468909 457917 451923 444928 433937 422946 
      417953 414960 411968 410976 410982 412987 418988 432982 
      443973 448969 457964 462961 471959 477961 480963 483967 
      481989 479998 480004 483006 487997 488988 495969 498963 
      502953 505947 509938 510932 
 0.50 502238 501229 499219 497211 490207 486205 478208 472210 
      467214 463216 461220 464223 469224 475223 479223 483224 
      488226 491230 497236 502238 502238 
 0.50 472158 470154 468151 465149 462150 461152 462153 463157 
      464158 467160 470162 472158 
 0.50 342782 341777 339773 336770 333772 327774 323776 318789 
      313799 304809 299814 298816 297819 297826 298833 297840 
      296846 293858 291871 290883 289891 290894 294895 296893 
      300888 304884 306880 312867 315854 318843 323831 329820 
      334807 341783 342782 
 0.50 259831 258828 255823 253817 251814 249809 247804 243799 
      240798 239803 239807 241813 243818 245821 248825 250828 
      254831 257833 259831 
 1.00 495923 494919 493919 490920 489920 487924 487925 485928 
      482931 482936 483936 484935 486934 486935 489934 491931 
      493928 493925 495923 
 1.00 454951 452947 449947 446944 443946 442948 440950 437950 
      432955 427960 422966 421974 423974 425972 432968 435965 
      439965 444959 450956 454951 
 1.00 331794 329788 325788 322791 321795 316804 312813 309821 
      307829 307839 308841 310839 313836 319828 323820 326812 
      329802 331794 
 1.00 304864 304860 301860 300862 299863 299865 299869 301870 
      303867 304864  
 
$$