AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1255 PM MST WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS FROM THE              
SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND AT             
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON               
THROUGH THURSDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS                    
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER AGAIN FRIDAY AND                  
CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER              
TERRAIN. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN                
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO                
CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF THE             
GREATER PHOENIX AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
KPSR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN                 
PWATER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...UP FROM 1.10" TUESDAY TO 1.52"                  
TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND ARIZONA AS THE DAY WEARS             
ON. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERLY               
PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH NORTHWARD UP            
BAJA AND ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ                        
TODAY/TONIGHT. SAT AND RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS             
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE              
WORDING FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MEANWHILE...A QUICK LOOK AT                      
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL SHOW UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF                        
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM ABOUT 00-12 UTC (OVERNIGHT TONIGHT) WHILE A               
VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL CWA. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD BETWEEN 00-06 UTC...AND             
ALSO INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...INCLUDING THE             
GREATER PHX AREA...FROM 06-12 UTC AS THESE WOULD BE DYMAMICALLY                 
DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS RATHER THAN THE TYPICAL THERMALLY DRIVEN ONES            
WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE BAJA/SRN CA COAST RESPONSIBLE              
FOR SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE                    
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ALSO UP. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT              
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP            
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONSET              
WILL BE DELAYED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE                  
ACTIVE WILL BE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE                
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH            
CB GROUP IN AREA TAFS EXCEPT FOR KIPL /VCTS/. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS            
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY ALSO             
LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ALL AREAS WITH TSTM ENHANCEMENT                 
SHIFTING TO ERN AZ.                                                             
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
TODAY AND THURSDAY...                                                           
INCREASING RH FROM A LARGE TROPICAL-LIKE SYSTEM IN MEXICO WILL LEAD             
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.                                    
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...                                                     
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AWAY FROM                 
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIF. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEVADA                    
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...WANEK                                                              
AVIATION...INIGUEZ                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE                                                           
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
236 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS                
EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.            
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS UPPER LEVEL            
RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND DESERT SW AND              
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING ACROSS             
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EJECTING A FEW SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
TIER OF STATES ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR WAVES            
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND CENTRAL                 
COLORADO ATTM. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING ACROSS            
THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF MINOR WAVE...WITH CURRENT DEW PTS IN THE            
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN KANSAS.              
DEW PTS HAVE AGAIN TANKED ACROSS THE MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT                 
PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS              
INDICATING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS              
THE  HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM.                                                       
TONIGHT...EMBEDDED WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                 
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING HELPING TO BREAK CAP AND AIDING IN                
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED                 
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH                
ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS YIELDING CAPES                 
BETWEEN 1500-2500 AND BULK SHEARS BETWEEN 30-35KTS...COULD SEE A FEW            
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN WITH UP TO GOLF BALL              
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THE MAIN THREATS.             
ACROSS THE MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS THROUGH              
THE EARLY EVENING AND WITH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE            
MAINLY VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH. HAVE ENDING PRECIP ACROSS               
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME INCREASING             
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AHEAD OF NORTHERN TIER SHORT WAVE                 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.                                             
THURSDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO                     
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.            
PASSING WAVE SENDS BACK DOOR FRONT TO THE PALMER DVD AROUND 15Z AND             
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS AND IS BACK UP ACROSS THE               
EASTERN MTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS                  
BEHIND FRONT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE                
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE PALMER DVD             
THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS AND RATON MESA REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.            
BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS            
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS                    
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR               
TEMPS WITH HIGHS BEING REACHED ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE LATE MORNING            
WITH LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO            
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.                                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...BIG WEATHER CHANGES STILL ON TRACK FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...                
...MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE VERY HIGH TERRAIN FRI-SAT...        
FRIDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BIG CHANGES...               
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUBTLE 12Z/13 MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE                
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TIMING AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE                
NORTH. THE NAM-WRF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE                
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. OVERALL...THE                    
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO WITH                   
RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN              
1/2 OF CO. JUST WAITING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE ASCENT. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE               
CHANCE THE NAM-WRF SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD VERIFY. KEEP THE "SLIGHT               
CHANCE" AND "CHANCE" POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PLENTY OF                     
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.                                              
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THESE FORECAST PERIODS SEEM               
TO HAVE THE RELATIVELY GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD QPF                    
ACROSS MUCH OF CO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK                
SLIDES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AGAIN...THERE              
ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES OF THE LOW EXITING CO WITH THE GFS BEING                 
THE FASTEST SAT AND THE NAM-WRF/ECMWF HANGING IT BACK FURTHER                   
WEST. HAS PLENTY OF IMPLIED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT NOTED IN THE                  
Q-G AND ISENTROPIC(310K/305K) ANALYSES. IT JUST DEPENDS ON THE                  
TRACK AND TIMING. A FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD EXIST BY                  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A                      
RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION/QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS AT                 
LEAST THE EASTERN 1/2 OF CO. STRATUS/FOG WILL CERTAINLY BE COMMON               
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS LATE                    
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WILL IT               
BE... FIRST...SURFACE PARCELS SHOULD BE RATHER STABLE ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE               
700-500MB STATIC STABILITIES ARE PRETTY STABLE(E.G. 5-6                         
C/KM)...HOWEVER...YOU COULDN`T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING                    
STRIKES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE MORE "UP- RIGHT" MOIST                      
CONVECTION COULD COME OFF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO SOUTHEAST                 
CO. ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE                      
700-500MB STATIC STABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO BE 7-8.5 C/KM. FOR THE              
SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS/PLAINS... I KEPT THE PRECIPITATION                    
STABLE(E.G. R/S) WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE" FOR T(THUNDER) AND FOR                  
AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MORE MOIST CONVECTIVE(E.G. RW/TRW).               
CURRENTLY...NO LIGHTNING SHOWING UP WITH THE LOW SPINNING JUST                  
NORTH OF MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...ESPECIALLY THE                    
SAWATCH/MOSQUITO RANGE(CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) AND PIKES PEAK WITH WET               
BULB ZERO/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS 11K-13K FT MSL. SNOW LEVELS COULD              
VARY PER DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME AND MOIST CONVECTION INTENSITY. IF                   
EVERYTHING SETS UP JUST RIGHT...THERE COULD BE 1-8 INCHES ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK SUMMIT BY SATURDAY EVENING.                
WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM`S 70-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER                   
CO...WINDS MIGHT BE BRISK FOR THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS FRIDAY THROUGH                 
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES                   
BELOW AVERAGE AUGUST READINGS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED TO THE PUBLIC              
THAT IF THEY HEADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN PEAK              
HIKING...TO REMAIN AWARE OF THE WEATHER FORECASTS AND TAKE THE                  
PROPER WINTER EQUIPMENT. THIS IS...GENERALLY...A FALL-LIKE WEATHER              
SYSTEM AND PEOPLE TEND TO GET FOULED BY CURRENT WARM WEATHER ONLY               
TO BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD WHEN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND               
SNOW OCCURS THE NEXT DAY.                                                       
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GENERALLY TREND WILL BE FOR THE                  
CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THESE SYSTEM ARE                 
ALWAYS TOUGH AS THEY BECOME ORPHANED FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM                   
FLOW. A MODERATING AND RELATIVELY DRYING TREND IS STILL IN THE                  
OFFING NEXT WEEK WITH WESTERN UNITED STATES LARGE RIDGE MOVING                  
BACK INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING              
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER                 
THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEARBY VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. METZE                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER                           
TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR            
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE ISOLATED MVFR VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE                
NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT             
FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE HIGH BASED             
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THIS EVENING. COLD             
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING            
WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z AT               
COS AND PUB WITH SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS               
AND ADJACENT PLAINS AFTER 20Z. -MW                                              
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
242 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                         
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF                     
CONVECTION...                                                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
DRY AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 70KT              
JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL               
COLORADO ATTM. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW IS INDICATED OVER EASTERN LAS            
ANIMAS COUNTY WITH LEE TROUGHING EVIDENT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LHX             
TO JUST EAST OF LIC. CURRENT DEW PTS MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE              
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH GOOD MIXING WEST OF THE TROUGH OWNING            
TO DEW PTS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH              
READINGS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM.              
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS                 
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH CU BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS             
ALONG WITH ONE LONE STORM EAST OF LIC ATTM.                                     
TONIGHT...MODELS KEEPING MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME UVV             
PROGGED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS UPPER JET CONTINUES TO                 
TRANSLATE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL             
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING                  
MODEST ELEVATED CAPES ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH CAPES BETWEEN               
1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ATTM. WITH A FEW MORE              
HOURS OF HEATING...ALONG WITH THE PROGGED UVV AND LIFT ASSOCIATED               
WITH LEE TROUGH AND ANY OUTFLOWS...HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG               
WITH RATON MESA AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE                   
EVENING WITH ISOLATED POPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS                
MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WITH               
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR...COULD SEE A FEW                 
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH             
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE.                
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25 CORRIDOR             
THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH THE DRIER AIR AT THE SFC...AM EXPECTING              
STORMS THAT CAN FIRE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS                 
UP TO 50 MPH.                                                                   
WEDNESDAY...DECREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE                
REGION AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.              
MODELS INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND             
UVV ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING PERSISTING                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTING OFF DEEP NORTHERN            
TIER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS SOUNDING INDICATE                  
SIMILAR SET TO TODAY WITH DEEP MIXING AND AFTERNOON DEW PTS IN THE              
30S TO LOW 40S THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND               
INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WITH LATEST SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAVING THIS AREA             
IN SLIGHT RISK ONCE AGAIN.  WITH THAT SAID....HAVE KEPT ISOLATED                
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN                  
PLAINS...THOUGH HAVE NOT ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE ZONES ATTM.                
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS AROUND                
TODAYS READINGS. -MW                                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
...ONE MORE WARM DAY THURSDAY...                                                
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE FRI-SUN...                          
...POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS FRI-SUN...               
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER                   
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY               
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT                       
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FIRST WEAK                 
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.               
I DIDN`T MUCH CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                                  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY                
CONSISTENT WITH SOME STOUT WEATHER CHANGES FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST              
THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. GFS...                    
NAM-WRF...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL HAVE SIGNIFICANT 500MB HEIGHT                    
CHANGES...588 DAM TO POSSIBLY 576-579 DAM...BY LATE THIS WEEK AND               
WEEKEND. LARGE LOW MOVES INTO CO AND CENTRAL PLAINS POSSIBLY                    
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED 1020-1025MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE              
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH                  
COLDER AIR MASS...E.G. COLD FRONT...MOVES INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF               
CO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...Q-G                 
ANALYSES ARE SUGGESTING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE WEATHER                  
SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW "CHANCE" POPS                
AND THEY COULD INCREASED...BUT WILL GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME                  
SINCE THIS IS OUT IN DAY 3/DAY 3 NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS. MODEL                  
MOS GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS                    
EASTERN CO AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES NOT                  
EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE 70S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS IF THE                  
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.                
THE RAW NAM-WRF DIGITAL FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE                
PALMER DIVIDE AND 60S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO FRIDAY. WET BULB                   
ZERO/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE 10K-12K FT MSL                    
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING PIKES PEAK...SO THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS                 
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFINED ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ACROSS THE                   
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/SAN LUIS VALLEY AS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN THAT AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH                
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE SOME 15-25               
DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE AUGUST TEMPERATURES AND I WOULDN`T BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS 30 DEGREES BELOW "NORMAL" TEMPERATURES.             
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY ONLY GET INTO THE 30S/40S              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PEOPLE HEADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD              
MONITOR LATER WEATHER FORECASTS AND DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF HEADING              
INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY/MOUNTAIN PEAKS. I WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED                 
TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A BIT BASED ON SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE               
NORTH AND CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE. BESIDES THE RELATIVELY COLDER                
TEMPERATURES AT THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO                 
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS 30-40KT MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS                  
DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.                               
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST THE LARGE RIDGE TO THE               
WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH                        
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY DRYING OUT...BUT THE TYPICAL               
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE OR THAN THE              
EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW BECOMES ORPHANED                  
FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOW AND MIGHT MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL              
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. METZE                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND               
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH BEST                 
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE ISOLATED MVFR VIS AND              
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED            
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND I-25                    
CORRIDOR WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 40               
AND 50 MPH THIS EVENING. -MW                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE              
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AT 2 PM EDT...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.             
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.                          
AT UPPER LEVELS...                                                              
LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...SATELLITE SHOWS TROUGH OVER PAC NW...RIDGE             
OVER WRN CONUS...A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER ERN PLAINS/WRN GREAT LAKES            
...A TROUGH OVER ERN SEABOARD EXTENDING INTO WRN ATLC AND NEAR ZONAL            
FLOW OVER CWA. ERN TROUGH WITH H5 LOW OVER NJ/NY COAST WITH TROUGH              
EXTENDING SWWD INTO GA. THROUGH TOMORROW...CNTRL TROF WILL PHASE                
INTO ERN TROF AND DEEPEN IMPACTING LOCAL WEATHER. BROAD CYCLONIC                
FLOW EXISTS FROM MS VALLEY TO S ATLC COAST. SEVERAL IMPULSES IN FLOW            
AND MOVING EWD AND GUIDANCE SHOWERS THEY ARE LIKELY TO MERGE INTO               
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING SEWD INTO             
WRN CWA BY 06Z WED. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT AIRMASS HAS               
MOISTENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 24 HR. FOR EXAMPLE TLH,JAX AND               
BMX WITH 2.28, 2.11 AND 2.09 IN PWAT RESPECTIVELY.                              
AT LOWER LEVELS...                                                              
SURFACE ANALYSIS/MSAS SHOWED A 1007 MB LOW ACROSS WRN LA WITH A WAVY            
STATIONARY FRONT ESE CNTRL ALA...CNTRL GA...TO SC BORDER. FRONT WILL            
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING AS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE                   
EAST ALONG IT TO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AL BY 06Z TO CNTRL AL/GA BORDER            
BY 12Z WED TO NC COAST BY 18Z. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED EWD               
THRU CENTRAL LA....CNTRL ALA/GA. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DRAGGED SEWD              
AND PUSH THROUGH THE CWA LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GFS IS                
QUICKER IN ORGANIZING AND MOVING THE SYSTEM EAST THAN THE NAM AND               
SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT                    
AIRMASSES TO REMAIN MOIST UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST OF CWA. I.E. GFS TAE             
SOUNDING AT 12Z TUES WITH 2.42 PWAT, 12Z WED WITH 2.23 PWAT DROPPING            
AT 12Z THURS TO 1.56 PWAT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)                                     
TONIGHT INTO WED...APPROACH OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE                 
TROUGH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE APPROACHING               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ITS ACCOMPANYING WIND FIELD MAKES THIS A                 
TRICKY FORECAST. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW SFC-H5 FLOW WILL LIMIT              
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT                
INSTABILITY. (NORMALLY IN THE SUMMER THE SITUATION IS REVERSED WITH             
POOR KINEMATICS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY). ALTHOUGH THE 0-1 KM VERTICAL            
WIND SHEAR WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES (NEAR 30                   
KT)...THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FROM 30 TO             
35 KT. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A               
50KT+ 850MB JET FORECAST BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BE IN OUR             
AL AND GA ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF ANY OF                
THAT 850MB JET WINDS MIXES DOWN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.             
THUS THE ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR SHALLOW MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING                  
SEGMENTS. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR GA AND AL ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK             
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WINDS OF              
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE            
NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO GUSTINESS.                                           
CONCERNS IS RAIN POTENTIAL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR                
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BEGINNING EFFECTIVE 00Z THIS            
EVENING.  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY TRICKY WATCH TO FORECAST.  HOWEVER             
THE 925-850MB THICKNESS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SEEMS TO CHARACTERIZE            
THE EXISTING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE             
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTLINE.  ESSENTIALLY THIS BOUNDARY            
IS A LEFT OVER WARM FRONT THAT IS MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD.               
THE INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE FOLLOWING             
THE RUC13 NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB WIND PATTERN.  THE AIR IS MUCH DRIER             
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RUC13 FORECASTS INCREASING WEST TO               
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW CENTER NOW             
OVER LOUISIANA. WHILE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED OVER               
THE EASTERN GOMEX.  THIS WILL CREATE A CONDUIT FOR MOVEMENT OF MOIST            
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TO FOCUS OVER THE FLORIDA              
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.  THE POTENTIAL             
EXISTS FOR ECHO TRAINING OVER THESE AREAS AND WILL NEED TO BE                   
MONITORED FOR THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4             
INCHES OVER NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  AN AREA            
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE COASTAL URBAN AREAS OF THE FLORIDA            
PANHANDLE. THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING                 
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DRYING DEVELOPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE.            
THURSDAY...                                                                     
WILL USE NW-SE 20-40 PCT POP GRADIENT AS SE THIRD CWA WILL REMAIN               
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BAND OF RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HIGH              
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY.                               
FRIDAY...                                                                       
WITH MOST MOISTURE SOUTH OF CWA...WILL USE A 20-30 PCT N-S POP                  
GRADIENT.                                                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF            
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME                 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND POSITION            
OF THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EURO TRACKS A DEEPER                
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE               
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA BY LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS TRACKS IT               
FROM WYOMING TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.             
EITHER WAY...THE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE                
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING FROM THE EAST AS             
THE TROUGH SHARPENS TO OUR WEST. THE PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE            
WILL BE WEAK AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOST AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. WILL SHOW POPS ONLY IN THE LOWER END CHANCE              
CATEGORY EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. ALSO THE             
00Z EURO IS MORE BULLISH ON TRACKING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM                 
ACROSS CUBA MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF TUESDAY. WITH THE                
AXIS OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THIS WILL HAVE TO                  
WATCHED CLOSELY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST              
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ARKLATEX. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS            
WILL OCNLY LOWER TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS, ALONG WITH IFR                  
VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W-SW 5-10 KTS, BUT WILL BE VRBL/GUSTY             
INVOF TSTMS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATER TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS           
WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD MORNING AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS              
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST               
STATES. THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS            
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MID-AFTN BUOY DATA SHOWS WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH 3-4 FOOT SEAS               
WELL OFFSHORE...10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS                 
TO SLOWLY AND THEN STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH REST OF TODAY AND INTO             
TONIGHT. THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST. HAVE DIVIDED CWF INTO WRN             
AND ERN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE RAPID INITIATION OF SCEC AND THE             
SCA CRITERIA. SCA ISSUED FOR WRN WATERS...SCEC ERN WATERS WITH SCA              
LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED E TONIGHT.  WE MAY EVEN HAVE TO ISSUE A HIGH              
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS THE SURF MAY REACH 6              
FEET LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  73  86  71  91 /  50  70  40  30                                   
PANAMA CITY  77  85  74  89 /  50  70  40  30                                   
DOTHAN       71  86  69  92 /  70  60  20  20                                   
ALBANY       72  85  68  92 /  70  60  20  20                                   
VALDOSTA     72  86  69  91 /  60  60  20  30                                   
CROSS CITY   75  85  72  87 /  50  60  40  50                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH.                                                         
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH.                                                         
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL BUT ERN BIG BEND.                                    
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PANHANDLE WATERS.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...JAMSKI                                                       
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK                                                           
LONG TERM...BARRY                                                               
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                   
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...                             
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL SHOW 500 MB CLOSED LOW            
JUST OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW INTO FL.              
TO THE W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OTHER UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE ACROSS             
TX...LA...MS AND AL PRODUCING SCT CONVECTION MAINLY IN TX. 00Z JAX              
SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT HAS INCREASED ABOUT 60% FROM 24 HRS AGO...NOW AT            
1.99 INCHES AND MEAN 0-6KM FLOW IS 290 DEG AT 17 KT. RADAR SHOWS A              
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AS HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT STREAM            
EWD IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB. AT SFC...MSAS SHOWS A NEARLY              
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 1 OR 2 FRONTAL WAVES OVER SC TO                
ACROSS GA/AL/MS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER TN AND VA AT 1015            
MB.                                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY-THURSDAY.                                                   
MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA AND IN FACT            
INCREASING WITH PWATS GOING ABOVE 2 INCHES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER               
THE FL PANHANDLE AT 12Z WILL SHIFT EWD SUPPORTING LIFT IN THE                   
AREA...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY IN TX TO                
SHIFT EWD INTO AL 00Z TONIGHT THEN INTO THE CWA BY 12Z WED. AT                  
SFC...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND                    
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE OVER S CENTRAL GA TODAY (PERHAPS              
SAG TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER) THEN LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW              
CURRENTLY OVER TX MOVES INTO MS/AL TONIGHT CENTRAL GA WED MORNING.              
THE NAM IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW AND WILL PREFER              
THE GFS AS ITS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT SETS UP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WED WITH 850 MB WINDS                   
MAXIMIZED AT 50-60 KT OVER SE GA WED MORNING THEN SHIFTS SWD INTO NE            
FL WED AFTERNOON.  A 1004 MB SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL             
GA WED MORNING AND OFF THE SC/NC CAROLINA COASTS WED NIGHT.                     
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY WED                 
EVENING THEN SWD INTO THE SRN CWA INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BOTH NAM              
AND GFS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THU                
WITH A SHARP N TO S MOISTURE GRADIENT. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE              
ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES BY THEN.                                                   
TODAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD                
RESULT IN HIGH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE AND CAN`T ARGUE WITH                   
CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN BY BOTH NAM AND GFS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE            
SMALL TO START OFF AND THEN INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE            
HELD DOWN BY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MID 80S. TONIGHT...LITTLE BIT OF A             
DRY SLOT MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW BUT ANTICIPATE LIKELY POPS               
OVER NRN 2/3RDS OF CWA FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SRN ZONES SHOULD              
SEE POPS DECREASE TO 10-20%. WED...APPROACH OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT               
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS            
ARE PLACED AT 60-70% WITH SLIVER OF CATEGORICAL POSSIBLE CLOSER TO              
BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT. LLVL JET AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (SBCAPE                  
~1000-1600J) WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS                   
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY OVER SE GA. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF             
30-35 KT ARE LIKELY. MULTICELLULAR STORMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE               
ABLE TO MANAGE THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH WARMEST TEMPS S ZONES.               
BREEZY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AND A LAKE WIND            
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO GUSTINESS.  WED NIGHT AND THU...FRONT             
WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH POPS DECREASE FROM N TO S AS DYNAMICS AND                
MOISTURE BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. FRONT HUNG UP OVER N CENTRAL FL THU MAY            
CONTINUE A HIGH RAIN CHANCE FROM MARION TO FLAGLER COUNTIES. TEMPS              
ON THU WARMEST IN SE GA NEAR 90...BUT REMAINING IN MID 80S NEAR THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                               
.LONG TERM...FRI-MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DIFFUSE NEAR SRN                 
ZONES ON FRI AND WILL SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FROM SUWANEE VALLEY TO                
MARION COUNTY WITH LOWER CHANCES IN SE GA. GFS SHOWS SFC LOW ALONG THE          
FRONT OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL FL MOVING NEWD BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT                   
SUSPECT. BY SAT-MON...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND WILL                 
LIKELY RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS...TO MORE                  
SEASONABLE VALUES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE MID MS                
VALLEY AREA SUN AND MON BUT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN WELL            
NW OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
BAHAMAS AND SRN PARTS OF FL NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH                 
AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WX IN THE FORECAST AREA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH                    
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 15-16Z TODAY DUE TO               
CIGS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW. TEMPO LIFR             
TO EVEN VLIFR IN HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS TSRA MOVE INLAND              
FROM THE GULF FIRST IMPACTING GNV BY LATE MORNING...THEN CONTINUING             
EAST TOWARD JAX...CRG AND SSI TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. STRONG LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 25-35 KTS AT 2 KFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT               
WIND SHEAR MENTION IN FOLLOWING TAF PACKAGES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR OUR OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING LATE              
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT                
WINDS AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE SE COAST. STILL BELIEVE THAT                
SCEC WILL SUFFICE FOR NEARSHORE LEGS. MENTIONED OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO             
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LATE WED AFTN/EVENING IN THE CWA...AND             
LATER SHIFTS MAY WISH TO CONSIDER A GALE WATCH BUT CONFIDENCE NOT               
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ONE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6             
FT DUE TO PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW.                                             
LEANED TOWARD A GFS/NAM12 BLEND FOR WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH              
MORE FOCUS ON THE SLOWER NAM12 WED NIGHT INTO THU. FOR EXTENDED                 
WINDS...USED THE DGEX IN THE GRIDS WHICH SUPPORT THE GFS ENSEMBLE               
INDICATING PREVAILING SSW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY                  
BECOMING SLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 2-2.4 INCHES AND THE CWA            
S OF THE 250 MB JET OVER CENTRAL GA TO NC...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN               
ARE EXPECTED INTO WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING               
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH WITH POSSIBLE 1-2 INCH            
AMOUNTS FROM SE GA INTO EXTREME NE FL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS                   
POSSIBLE BY WED AND WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY AND BEST LIFT OCCURS.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  85  71  85  66 /  80  60  70  20                                           
SSI  84  73  85  71 /  80  60  70  30                                           
JAX  86  73  88  68 /  80  60  70  30                                           
SGJ  86  73  90  72 /  90  60  60  40                                           
GNV  85  73  88  72 /  90  50  60  50                                           
OCF  87  73  88  72 /  80  40  50  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY             
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM                   
     OFFSHORE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ENYEDI                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1108 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SMALL CLUSTER OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL GA APPEARS TO              
BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...TERRAIN EFFECTS...AND               
PERHAPS A SLIGHT ASSIST FROM THE NOSE OF AN H2 JET STREAK PASSING               
OVERHEAD. NAM AND RUC MODELS DO DEPICT SOME QPF IN THIS GENERAL AREA            
AND BOTH SUGGEST AN EASTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO            
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 12Z. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS              
ON TRACK.                                                                       
RRH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH              
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE FOR AUGUST MOVING ACROSS THE                      
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS                  
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY              
HAS EXITED THE CWA. DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST                 
GEORGIA...ALBEIT WITH SLOW PROGRESS. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S                   
NOTED ACROSS TENNESSEE...BEING ADVECTED SOUTH BY NORTHERLY WINDS.               
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER PAST 00Z THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY                 
STILL LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ALSO ADDED LOW POPS FOR                   
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS SOME TOPOGRAPHICAL ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO BE               
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA...WHICH                 
RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG                   
APPEAR LIKELY TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER NEARS SATURATION ACROSS                 
MOST OF THE AREA...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LOOK TO HAVE THE               
DRIEST AIR IN PLACE SO FOG MAY BE LESS OF A PROBLEM IN THOSE                    
AREAS. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS                        
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...ADDED SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE TOPOGRAPHY               
AND BETTER MID- LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR              
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
INCREASED MIN TEMPS OVER MOS FOR FRIDAY MORNING IN SEVERAL AREAS                
WHERE MAV IN PARTICULAR SEEMED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF                
DRYING IN THE LOW-LEVELS. MAV HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY SEEMED TOO WARM              
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IN PARTICULAR. WENT CLOSER TO COOLER FWC                 
TEMPS GIVEN RECENT RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...OTHERWISE DID                 
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS.                                                     
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED                   
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO               
BUILD BACK ACROSS GEORGIA. SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES               
INTO THE PLAINS BECOMES CUTOFF UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE                   
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY EARLY NEXT                          
WEEK...FORMING A REX BLOCK PATTERN...WHICH GFS SHOWS PERSISTING                 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE                     
TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR GEORGIA...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW                     
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND                       
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE VALUES.                                      
MSR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COUPLE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET WILL               
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS NEXT              
UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS PRESENTS A CHALLENGE DECIDING HOW             
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THE MORE COOLING WE                   
GET...THE LOWER THE VISIBILITIES WILL GO...SINCE THE GROUND IS WET              
AND WE FAILED TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDITIONS            
WILL LIKELY VARY FROM PLACE TO PLACE WITH SOME GOING IFR BY 08Z OR              
09Z...AND OTHER REMAINING MVFR. ALSO NOT SURE ABOUT FORMATION OF                
CEILINGS BELOW 1 THOUSAND FEET. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD FAVOR                
STRATUS...BUT THIS IS MID AUGUST. HAVE CHOSEN TO MENTION LOW CLOUDS             
AT MOST AIRPORTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. IF LOW CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE AT              
DAYBREAK...THEY MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO BREAK AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND               
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE OVERHEAD. BUT...VISIBILITIES ABOVE 5 MILES             
ARE EXPECTED BEFORE NOON WITH CEILINGS BREAKING AND HEATING GETTING             
MIXING GOING.                                                                   
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          65  87  62  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10                        
ATLANTA         66  85  66  89  69 /  10  10  10  10  10                        
BLAIRSVILLE     62  83  57  86  62 /  20  20  10  10  10                        
CARTERSVILLE    63  86  58  90  62 /  10  10  10  10  10                        
COLUMBUS        68  88  66  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5                        
GAINESVILLE     65  85  63  89  68 /  20  20  10  10  10                        
MACON           67  88  63  93  66 /  10  10   5  10  10                        
ROME            64  87  60  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  10                        
PEACHTREE CITY  64  86  58  90  60 /  10  10   5  10  10                        
VIDALIA         67  89  65  93  67 /  20  10   5  10  10                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
555 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
220 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT             
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST TO             
THE NORTH OF THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SFC...RIDGE WAS                  
SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS TROUGH DEVELOPED ACROSS                 
EASTERN COLORADO.                                                               
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS VERY DIFFERENT OVERNIGHT WITH               
NAM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.              
PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH AREA OF SFC                     
CONVERGENCE ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF AREA. TD`S MUCH LOWER THAN                  
PREVIOUS DAYS...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY AM              
CONCERNED THAT CAPPING MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND AT              
THIS POINT THINK NAM MAY NE A BIT OVERDONE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH            
LLJ DOES GET GOING TONIGHT POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING ABOVE                
THIS LEVEL WILL BE STRONG. SREF POPS REMAIN ARE IN THE 70-90 PERCENT            
RANGE TONIGHT HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE ON IT REMAINING DRY ARE NOT               
HIGH EITHER. FOR NOW ARE GOING TO KEEP MID RANGE POPS AND WATCH HOW             
AFTERNOON DEVELOPS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL.                                  
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT...FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST                
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z...WHILE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES              
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL                
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH              
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CORRELATION OF UPPER FORCING AND SFC BASED                
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR BTWN 18Z AND 00Z AHEAD OF THE COLD                       
FRONT...AND WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME. BOTH NAM AND            
GFS QUICKLY MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE            
AREA POST FRONTAL BY 00Z. DIV Q FIELDS ALSO INDICATE WIDESPREAD                 
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS HOLDING            
ONTO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT...AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THIS            
PERIOD. WILL LINGER SOME HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN            
FRINGE OF THE AREA EARLY TO ACCOMMODATE TIMING DIFFERENCES.                     
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN                
COLORADO AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES                      
THROUGH...WITH THE NAM CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS. SREF MEAN              
GENERALLY FAVORS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SO FAVORED THIS SOLUTION              
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LOW TAKING A MORE WESTWARD                             
TRACK...STRONGEST AND DEEPEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY BE              
WEIGHTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE FORCING REMAINING            
WEST OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TO BE WEIGHTED MORE IN THE                      
WEST...CLOSER TO THE H5 LOW. BY SATURDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODEL                 
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. NAM CONTINUES TO               
HOLD LOW ALONG THE ROCKIES...WHILE GFS HAS LOW CENTERED OVER                    
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION...NOT GOING TO            
TRY TO PINPOINT MOST LIKELY AREA OF PRECIP AND WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE            
POPS EVERYWHERE.                                                                
IN THE EXTENDED...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE SPEED              
AND TRACK OF CLOSED H5 LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE            
START OF THE PERIOD. 12Z GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM             
THAN OVERNIGHT ECMWF...WHICH IS A DEPARTURE FROM 00 AND 06Z GFS. 00Z            
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY SUPPORT THE 12Z SOLUTION HOWEVER...SO                
GENERALLY WENT WITH GFS IDEA OF A QUICKER END TO PRECIPITATION AND              
BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPS SOONER. EVEN WITH QUICKER                            
SOLUTION...WOULD EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
551 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
FOR THE 00Z TAF...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF CYCLE WILL BE WHETHER                
OR NOT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO                  
THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS         
WOULD INDICATE IT WILL AVOID THEM SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIP                 
MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND              
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF NECESSARY. WILL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP               
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INSERTED PREVAILING PRECIP GROUP FOR              
KGLD BUT LEFT MENTION OUT AT KMCK AS IT APPEARS GREATEST COVERAGE               
WILL BE FROM THE KS/CO BORDER WESTWARD. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR                     
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP GROUP FOR KGLD FOR THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1130 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE TWEAKED 1ST PERIOD PARAMETERS TO MATCH                   
CURRENT OBS AND LATEST RUC/RUC13 WHICH HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON                   
CURRENT CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HARD TO PIN              
DOWN BUT CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH AND THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE                  
AREAS AROUND THE AREA TO AT LEAST PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM                 
GROWTH. TEMPERATURES PER LATEST MOS/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE AROUND 90 BUT              
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE THEM AS ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE SEEMS TO                
BE IMPACTING FULL MIXING POTENTIAL A BIT AND READINGS COULD BE A                
FEW DEGREES LOWER.                                                              
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFTER              
MIDNIGHT AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. HAVE                
SOME MVFR CIG FORECASTS TO START THINGS OFF AND WILL AWAIT 18Z                  
GUIDANCE BEFORE GETTING TO AGGRESSIVE IN THE 00Z TAFS. OTHERWISE                
ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON               
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO PUT THEM IN              
THE TAFS. WILL TRY AND REFINE THEM ONCE ACTIVITY GETS GOING A BIT               
LATER TODAY.                                                                    
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST AND 18Z TAFS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT              
TO FIT HOURLY TRENDS AND REORGANIZED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP AREA TO              
HIGHLIGHT AREAS NEAR THE COLD FRONT/WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR                  
INTERSTATE 35 AND THEN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA               
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN MCV DIVING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MO AT               
THIS TIME. THE MCV IS MOVING JUST EAST OF SOUTH...SO IT MAY NOT                 
HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE CWA. MORNING KTOP SOUNDING INDICATED NO                 
MID LVL CAP...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED              
WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED                     
OUT...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE CWA LIES ON THE NVA SIDE OF EXITING                    
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO AT LEAST MODEST UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE IS IN                
PLACE...SO DID NOT EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA                
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS FOR              
CU FIELD APPEARANCE AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY.                                    
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE EXPECT VFR                    
CONDITIONS OVER ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ONLY FLY IN THE              
OINTMENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING IN RIVER                  
VALLEY SITES TOP AND MHK NEAR SUNRISE. DID NOT PLACE IN TAFS AT                 
THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN FUTURE FORECASTS. EXPECT                  
AFTERNOON CU FIELD TO DEVELOP IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE AND DISSIPATE                
AFTER PEAK HEATING.                                                             
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS                                                            
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONT HAS JUST PASSED KMHK THIS PAST HOUR...AND RADAR AND SFC OBS               
INDICATE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KTOP/KFOE AROUND 12Z. SOME                
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT 11Z SHOULD MIX OUT WITH THE FROPA. WIND SPEEDS               
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS              
AT ALL SITES VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY THEN                  
GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. PRECIP HAS TEMPORARILY               
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP             
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CLOSER TO                      
WEAKENING BOUNDARY...AND WILL ONLY CARRY CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW                 
WITH VFR STRATOCU. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF TAFS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH                
IF DRYING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT TAKE PLACE                  
OVERNIGHT...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
PRECIPITATION FROM DECAYING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.            
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL                 
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AN MCV WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                
KANSAS NEAR KCNK AND KEEPING SHOWERS GOING THERE. ALSO 500 MB                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN            
KANSAS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME             
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MOVE THROUGH. FOR               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD SEE SOME                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND            
HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE.                                                
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 12Z              
AND 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD              
BY THE GFS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO HOLD OFF ON                  
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS                  
COUNTIES AS LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GOOD             
FETCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY            
EVENING TURNING SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN CWA.             
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS GOOD             
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UP            
IN NEBRASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.            
GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND               
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE STORMS MAY FORM INTO AN             
MCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALSO LOWERED            
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAYS HIGHS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN UPPER             
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND HAVE LEFT THE                  
EXTENDED UNTOUCHED AS IT HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MAY NEED TO LOWER               
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST THAN            
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THROWING A WRENCH INTO GOING TAF FORECAST.             
CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR                    
THOUGH...AND LINE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.                                   
REGARDLESS...GFS AND NAM HANDLING ONGOING CONVECTION VERY                       
POORLY...AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRACK IS LOW. THE RUC SHOWING A               
BIT OF PROMISE...ENDING CURRENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO                  
HOURS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM...COMPLEX               
SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF ITSELF THROUGH TOP/FOE/MHK...AND               
WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR RA BETWEEN APX. 07Z AND 10Z. MOIST BOUNDARY                
LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVOKE BR AT EACH SITE BEFORE AND                   
AFTER THE RA. VFR AFTER 15Z.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
659 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FRONT HAS JUST PASSED KMHK THIS PAST HOUR...AND RADAR AND SFC OBS               
INDICATE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KTOP/KFOE AROUND 12Z. SOME                
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT 11Z SHOULD MIX OUT WITH THE FROPA. WIND SPEEDS               
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS              
AT ALL SITES VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY THEN                  
GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. PRECIP HAS TEMPORARILY               
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP             
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CLOSER TO                      
WEAKENING BOUNDARY...AND WILL ONLY CARRY CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW                 
WITH VFR STRATOCU. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF TAFS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH                
IF DRYING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT TAKE PLACE                  
OVERNIGHT...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
PRECIPITATION FROM DECAYING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.            
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL                 
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AN MCV WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                
KANSAS NEAR KCNK AND KEEPING SHOWERS GOING THERE. ALSO 500 MB                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN            
KANSAS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME             
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MOVE THROUGH. FOR               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD SEE SOME                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND            
HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE.                                                
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 12Z              
AND 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD              
BY THE GFS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO HOLD OFF ON                  
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS                  
COUNTIES AS LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GOOD             
FETCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY            
EVENING TURNING SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN CWA.             
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS GOOD             
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UP            
IN NEBRASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.            
GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND               
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE STORMS MAY FORM INTO AN             
MCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALSO LOWERED            
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAYS HIGHS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN UPPER             
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND HAVE LEFT THE                  
EXTENDED UNTOUCHED AS IT HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MAY NEED TO LOWER               
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST THAN            
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THROWING A WRENCH INTO GOING TAF FORECAST.             
CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR                    
THOUGH...AND LINE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.                                   
REGARDLESS...GFS AND NAM HANDLING ONGOING CONVECTION VERY                       
POORLY...AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRACK IS LOW. THE RUC SHOWING A               
BIT OF PROMISE...ENDING CURRENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO                  
HOURS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM...COMPLEX               
SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF ITSELF THROUGH TOP/FOE/MHK...AND               
WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR RA BETWEEN APX. 07Z AND 10Z. MOIST BOUNDARY                
LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVOKE BR AT EACH SITE BEFORE AND                   
AFTER THE RA. VFR AFTER 15Z.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
63                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
420 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIPITATION FROM DECAYING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING.            
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL                 
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AN MCV WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                
KANSAS NEAR KCNK AND KEEPING SHOWERS GOING THERE. ALSO 500 MB                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN            
KANSAS. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME             
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MOVE THROUGH. FOR               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD SEE SOME                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND            
HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE.                                                
FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 12Z              
AND 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD              
BY THE GFS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO HOLD OFF ON                  
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS                  
COUNTIES AS LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GOOD             
FETCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY            
EVENING TURNING SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN CWA.             
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS GOOD             
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UP            
IN NEBRASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.            
GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND               
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE STORMS MAY FORM INTO AN             
MCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALSO LOWERED            
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAYS HIGHS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN UPPER             
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND HAVE LEFT THE                  
EXTENDED UNTOUCHED AS IT HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MAY NEED TO LOWER               
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST THAN            
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THROWING A WRENCH INTO GOING TAF FORECAST.             
CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR                    
THOUGH...AND LINE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.                                   
REGARDLESS...GFS AND NAM HANDLING ONGOING CONVECTION VERY                       
POORLY...AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRACK IS LOW. THE RUC SHOWING A               
BIT OF PROMISE...ENDING CURRENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO                  
HOURS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM...COMPLEX               
SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF ITSELF THROUGH TOP/FOE/MHK...AND               
WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR RA BETWEEN APX. 07Z AND 10Z. MOIST BOUNDARY                
LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVOKE BR AT EACH SITE BEFORE AND                   
AFTER THE RA. VFR AFTER 15Z.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
1158 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST                 
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THROWING A WRENCH INTO GOING TAF                  
FORECAST. CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST               
HOUR THOUGH...AND LINE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.                              
REGARDLESS...GFS AND NAM HANDLING ONGOING CONVECTION VERY                       
POORLY...AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRACK IS LOW. THE RUC SHOWING A               
BIT OF PROMISE...ENDING CURRENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO                  
HOURS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM...COMPLEX               
SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE OF ITSELF THROUGH TOP/FOE/MHK...AND               
WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR RA BETWEEN APX. 07Z AND 10Z. MOIST BOUNDARY                
LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVOKE BR AT EACH SITE BEFORE AND                   
AFTER THE RA. VFR AFTER 15Z.                                                    
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TWO SHRTWV TROFS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                
EARLY AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTED BOTH WAVES. THE                 
FIRST WAS CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CNTRL NEB INTO NW KS WITH THE NEXT                
UPSTRM WAVE OVR ERN WY. ATMOSPHERE ACRS NE KS HAS ONLY BECOME WEAKLY            
UNSTABLE THIS AFTN /ARND 500 J/KG MLCAPE/ WITH TMPS INCREASING THRU             
THE LOWER 80S. MAY STILL SEE AN ISO SHRA OR TSRA DVLP THIS                      
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SRN CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES                 
BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING KICKS IN LATER THIS EVNG. NW CWA IN               
REGION OF DNVA BEHIND INITIAL WAVE HAS LEAST CHC TO SEE ANY ACTIVITY            
THIS EVNG...BUT AFTR MIDNIGHT AS NEXT SHRTWV STARTS TO WORK THRU                
NEB...A BETTER CHC OF PRECIP MAY DVLP ACRS THE NRN FA. THIS MAY COME            
LATE TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WEAKENING MCS EXPECTED TO DVLP OVR                
PARTS OF NEB/SD...AND DRIFT SEWD. ALL SAID...WILL CONT WITH SOME CHC            
POPS IN THE S THIS EVNG LINGERING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN A SLIGHT              
CHC AFTER AND THE OPPOSITE IN THE NRN CWA.                                      
ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ALNG THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BASICALLY               
ALNG I-70...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLDS HAVE KEPT OUT OF               
THE FORECAST ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH              
COOLER READINGS IN THE NW WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLDS ARE                   
EXPECTED. TAIL END OF THE SECOND SHRTWV TROF WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE            
ERN CWA THRU THE DAY ON TUE. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE             
WEAKENING AS BEST ENERGY SHIFTS EWD...BUT MID LVL COLD POOL /SEEN               
THIS MRNG FM UT INTO CNTRL WY/ WILL BE MOVG EWD AND ALLOWS FOR THE              
ERN CWA TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE AFTN. LITTLE CAPPING IS IN PLACE                
TOMORROW AND THUS AN ISO SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE                 
AFTN. DID TWEAK DOWN HIGHS FOR TUE ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LIMITED            
MIXING AND FAIRLY COOL H85 TMPS.                                                
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY 24              
HR PERIOD WITHOUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE              
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC RIDGE                  
BUILDING INTO THE CWA WOULD INDICATE A DRY PERIOD IN AN OTHERWISE               
ACTIVE PATTERN. WEDNESDAY COULD ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE                  
WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.                    
EXTENDED...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADJUSTMENTS AS THE                   
ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF A                
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN GENERAL THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE                  
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA AT FORECAST TIME WILL PUSH                 
EAST INTO MANITOBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE                 
SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON                      
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS AND              
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE                  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE RETROGRADING LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIFFER FROM ONE                
ANOTHER...AND FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING              
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN TERMS OF 12Z RUNS...THE GFS OFFERED UP              
A SLOWER SOLUTION...KEEPING THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT                     
WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE                 
SYSTEM...BRINGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON                  
FRIDAY...AND ALLOWING IT TO EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY. SINCE BOTH               
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH                    
MONDAY...THE WEEKEND AT LEAST LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL                 
TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EVERYDAY.                    
BEYOND THIS...THE EXTENDED IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND              
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO UNTIL MODELS CAN AGREE UPON A SOLUTION. ONLY              
CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE DURING THE PERIOD WAS TO REMOVE                     
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND INSTEAD               
WENT WITH RAIN SHOWER WORDING. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS NEARLY                       
BAROTROPIC BY THIS TIME AND SAW LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT TO                   
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM MENTION.                                                   
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KONOP                                                                           
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
152 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
15Z H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS             
A CLOSED LOW EXITS THE NERN CONUS. ERN KY IS UNDER A NWRLY FLOW                 
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM              
THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NC. A BNDRY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS              
THE SERN CONUS FROM A WEAK LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD           
COVERAGE. LOCALLY...SOME MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BNDRY          
TO THE SOUTH ARE APPROACHING THE SRN FRINGES OF THE CWA.                        
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS            
AFTERNOON...AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE SRN CWA ALONG WITH             
AN INCREASE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH              
THE BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT. MINOR CHANGES MADE ON SKY GRIDS TO                 
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER SRN ZONES. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN LINE              
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE SRN CWA TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NERN            
KY.                                                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/                                                  
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRINGES. THE OBSERVATIONS              
REFLECT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH READINGS ACROSS THE CWA             
IN THE MIDDLE 50S VALLEYS TO LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS                 
LIKEWISE DOCUMENT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER               
50S. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE CLEAR...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL                 
ENCROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST                
TOWARDS DAWN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR           
GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PEAKING PERSEID METEOR SHOWER...WILL            
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS FALLING TO THE                 
DEWPOINT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG.                                     
WHILE THE MODELS FEATURE A SIMILAR PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT              
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEY EACH HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES           
IN THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN FEATURES AFFECTING THE COUNTRY DURING               
THIS TIME FRAME. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH           
AMERICA WILL PIVOT WESTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE           
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE A MORE COMPACT                  
CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT A HOLDING PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND ENTER           
THE NORTH PLAINS DIVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST...THOUGH FRIDAY. IN                
ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM              
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF SHORE. THE ECMWF            
SOLUTION FROM 12Z MONDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE MOST CONSISTENT AND               
REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR THESE FEATURES AND AS A RESULT WAS FOLLOWED             
FOR THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.                                                   
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY           
AND SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS...FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THAT WE              
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE SKIES FROM BEING              
COMPLETELY SUNNY TODAY AND TEMPS WILL WARM A COUPLE OF EXTRA                    
DEGREES FROM MONDAY. SIMILARLY...TONIGHT WILL BE JUST A TAD MILDER              
WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT A NOTABLE                
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE ALONG WITH PATCHY              
VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY            
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY PERHAPS BRUSHING UP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST                
KENTUCKY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY            
FROM THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE                
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BENEATH THE DESCENDING UPPER TROUGH...WILL            
KEEP THE SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH A CONTINUING LOW LEVEL                  
THREAT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE COVERAGE FROM THIS IS              
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT...NORTH AND LESS SOUTH. ANOTHER                
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                          
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLER                 
VALUES PREFERRED FOR THE NIGHTS AND WARMER ONES FAVORED FOR DAYS.               
THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO UNDERCUT MOS POPS FROM ALL SOURCES                
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY KEY SFC FEATURES CROSSING THE AREA.                       
.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/                                            
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER                
LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH POPS FOR                
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE ON CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES                  
REMAIN IN PROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. HAVE LEANED              
MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER              
CANNOT DISREGARD HOW CONSISTENT GFS HAS BEEN...SO WILL BLEND BETWEEN            
THE TWO. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE BELIEVABLE FOR THIS TIME OF              
YEAR WITH ITS MORE NORTHWESTWARD EXIT AGAINST H5 HIGH PRESSURE OFF              
THE ATLANTIC COAST. DO NOT FEEL THAT TROUGH COULD PROGRESS AS FAR               
SOUTH AND EAST AS PROGGED BY 06/12Z GFS. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY INTO             
THE WEEKEND...HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO MAINLY 40 PERCENT FOR               
THE WEEKEND MATCHING UP WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING                    
OFFICES.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AMPLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH              
DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES EVER SO                  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR               
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND               
SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MOISTURE INCREASE DUE TO THE APPROACHING                   
SYSTEM. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST                  
GUIDANCE VALUES AND MODEL TRENDS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY            
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL                
TRAVERSE THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A            
SW/V OVER THE PLAINS ARE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON WED AS THE SFC WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH            
AND THE SW/V NEARS THE REGION...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR THE 7 TO              
8KFT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY VALLEY FOG             
CONFINED TO LESS COVERAGE THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.               
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD THREATEN            
LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.             
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER                                                         
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                
1158 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
15Z H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS             
A CLOSED LOW EXITS THE NERN CONUS. ERN KY IS UNDER A NWRLY FLOW                 
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM              
THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NC. A BNDRY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS              
THE SERN CONUS FROM A WEAK LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD           
COVERAGE. LOCALLY...SOME MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BNDRY          
TO THE SOUTH ARE APPROACHING THE SRN FRINGES OF THE CWA.                        
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS            
AFTERNOON...AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE SRN CWA ALONG WITH             
AN INCREASE FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH              
THE BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT. MINOR CHANGES MADE ON SKY GRIDS TO                 
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER SRN ZONES. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN LINE              
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE SRN CWA TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NERN            
KY.                                                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/                                                  
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRINGES. THE OBSERVATIONS              
REFLECT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH READINGS ACROSS THE CWA             
IN THE MIDDLE 50S VALLEYS TO LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS                 
LIKEWISE DOCUMENT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER               
50S. ON SATELLITE...SKIES ARE CLEAR...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL                 
ENCROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST                
TOWARDS DAWN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR           
GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PEAKING PERSEID METEOR SHOWER...WILL            
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS FALLING TO THE                 
DEWPOINT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG.                                     
WHILE THE MODELS FEATURE A SIMILAR PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT              
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEY EACH HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES           
IN THE HANDLING OF THE MAIN FEATURES AFFECTING THE COUNTRY DURING               
THIS TIME FRAME. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH           
AMERICA WILL PIVOT WESTWARD BY MIDDAY THURSDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE           
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE A MORE COMPACT                  
CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT A HOLDING PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND ENTER           
THE NORTH PLAINS DIVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST...THOUGH FRIDAY. IN                
ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM              
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF SHORE. THE ECMWF            
SOLUTION FROM 12Z MONDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE MOST CONSISTENT AND               
REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR THESE FEATURES AND AS A RESULT WAS FOLLOWED             
FOR THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.                                                   
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY           
AND SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS...FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THAT WE              
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE SKIES FROM BEING              
COMPLETELY SUNNY TODAY AND TEMPS WILL WARM A COUPLE OF EXTRA                    
DEGREES FROM MONDAY. SIMILARLY...TONIGHT WILL BE JUST A TAD MILDER              
WITH THE CLOUDS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT A NOTABLE                
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE ALONG WITH PATCHY              
VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY            
TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY PERHAPS BRUSHING UP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST                
KENTUCKY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY            
FROM THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE                
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BENEATH THE DESCENDING UPPER TROUGH...WILL            
KEEP THE SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH A CONTINUING LOW LEVEL                  
THREAT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE COVERAGE FROM THIS IS              
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT...NORTH AND LESS SOUTH. ANOTHER                
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                          
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COOLER                 
VALUES PREFERRED FOR THE NIGHTS AND WARMER ONES FAVORED FOR DAYS.               
THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO UNDERCUT MOS POPS FROM ALL SOURCES                
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY KEY SFC FEATURES CROSSING THE AREA.                       
.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/                                            
A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER                
LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH POPS FOR                
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE ON CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES                  
REMAIN IN PROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. HAVE LEANED              
MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER              
CANNOT DISREGARD HOW CONSISTENT GFS HAS BEEN...SO WILL BLEND BETWEEN            
THE TWO. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE BELIEVABLE FOR THIS TIME OF              
YEAR WITH ITS MORE NORTHWESTWARD EXIT AGAINST H5 HIGH PRESSURE OFF              
THE ATLANTIC COAST. DO NOT FEEL THAT TROUGH COULD PROGRESS AS FAR               
SOUTH AND EAST AS PROGGED BY 06/12Z GFS. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY INTO             
THE WEEKEND...HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO MAINLY 40 PERCENT FOR               
THE WEEKEND MATCHING UP WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING                    
OFFICES.                                                                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AMPLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH              
DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES EVER SO                  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR               
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND               
SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH MOISTURE INCREASE DUE TO THE APPROACHING                   
SYSTEM. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST                  
GUIDANCE VALUES AND MODEL TRENDS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS EARLY THIS               
MORNING...NONE OF THE TAF LOCATIONS REPORTED ANY. EXPECT SIMILAR                
CONDITIONS TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL                  
BENEATH A SCT TO BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS              
FROM THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND           
PERHAPS A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM...AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES...TO           
THE EAST...BUT THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST.                                    
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM.../GUEST                                                             
LONG TERM....                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES               
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO               
THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                
IN BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
UNUSUAL (NON TROPICAL) SYNOPTIC SYSTM FOR MID AUGUST IS EXPECTED                
TO EFFECT MID ATLNTC RGN NXT 24-36 HRS. HIGH/MID LVL CLDS FROM SRN              
STREAM SYSTM ALRDY BEGINNING TO OVRSPRD SRN CNTYS THIS EVE. THESE               
CLDS WILL CONT TO INCRS FROM THE S...BUT AT THE SAME TIME..RUNNING              
INTO WEAK RIDGE CRNTLY OVR W VA. ALL MODEL GUID THIS EVE KEEPS ANY              
PCPN S OF FA THRU 12Z (LWR LVLS JUST TO DRY). SO JIST OF EVE UPDATE             
WAS TO INCRSE CLD COVER OVR SRN HALF OF FA INTO "CLDY" RANGE BY MORN.           
TMPS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE INCRS IN CLOUD COVER...BUT XPCT THE             
LOWEST READINGS ACROSS NRN CNTYS UNDER PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS U50S NRTH            
TO M60S SOUTH.                                                                  
GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP...CHANGED CLOUD COVER TO "CLOUDY" VICE M CLDY              
WEDNESDAY AS PCPN OVRSPRDS SERN CNTYS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                          
GOING CLSR TO COMBINATION OF 12Z ECMWF/NAM MDLS FOR THE TIMING/MOVEMENT         
OF SFC LO PRES THAT TRACKS ACRS THE SE STATES THEN OFF THE NC CST               
WED THRU THU MORNG. HIEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SE VA                
AND NE NC WED AFTN AND EVENG...WITH SLGT TO SML CHC POPS ACRS NRN               
1/3 OF CWA. HIEST POPS REMAIN ALNG THE CST LATER WED NGT INTO THU               
MORNG...AS LO TRACKS OFF NC CST AND CONTINES NE. QPF AMTS OF ARND               
.50 INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR EXTRM SE VA AND (ESPLY) NE                
NC FM THIS EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMTS POSSIBLE AS YOU GO NW ACRS                 
REGION. CLDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD TEMPS DWN ON WED...WITH MAX TEMPS               
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. INCLUDED ONLY SLGT CHC OF                  
TSRAS DUE TO TRACK OF LO AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.                               
ALTHO SFC LO PRES MOVES AWAY THU...FA WILL REMAIN IN A TROFINESS                
THRU FRI WITH LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. AS A RESULT...KEPT A SLGT                 
CHC FOR PCPN ALL AREAS THU AFTN THRU FRI. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S              
TO MID 80S THU...AND RANGING THRU THE 80S FRI.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI THRU             
EARLY SAT...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SRN QUEBEC.                 
COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS IN THE LATE EVENING IN SE                
VA/NC AS THE TROF MOVES OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY SILENT POPS              
FOR FRI NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROF DEPARTS AND WITH THE LOSS              
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S IN FAR WRN            
SECTIONS UP TO THE LWR 70S IN SE VA/NE NC ON FRI NIGHT.                         
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK TROF ROTATING THRU ON SAT AFTN/EVNG AND                
WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA. THE UPPER            
LEVEL LOW FINALLY DEPARTS SRN QUEBEC MOVING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN                
MARITIMES ON SUN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY SUN AFTERNOON              
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW WITH GOOD           
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE              
IN THE LWR TO MID 80S FRI AND SAT...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S BY              
SUN...AND EVENTUALLY UPR 80S/LWR 90S ON MON AND TUE AS S/SW FLOW                
STRENGTHENS AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN              
THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. THE REMAINS OF A                  
STALLED FRONT IN SC WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ALONG IT WEDS               
AM BRINGING INCRSD CLD COVER AND A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE                 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA LATE WEDS MORN. CHANCE FOR -RA AND                 
LWRG CIGS (MVFR/IFR) LATE MAINLY ACROSS SERN VA AND NERN NC. VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL THEN ENSUE ON THU AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK SEABREEZE HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST              
AND WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE/SE. NAM AND RUC INDICATE A SOUTHERLY              
SURGE OVER THE CHES BAY THIS EVENING (DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT               
BETWEEN THE WARM BAY WATERS AND COOLER LAND AREAS AFTER SUNSET).                
EXPECT 10 TO 15 KT S WINDS FOR THE CHES BAY LATE THIS EVENING THRU              
EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE (ALTHOUGH WINDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA).                                              
A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR WED MORNING. WINDS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE               
ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF            
LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY OVER INLAND MISSISSIPPI). MODELS ARE NOT IN             
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE LOCATION/TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE                
LOW. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION AS THE OTHER               
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. AFTER                    
COORDINATING WITH MHX...RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM            
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA SOUTH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC...AND FOR               
THE CURRITUCK SOUND...FROM LATE WED NIGHT THRU EARLY THUR. WINDS                
WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE ON THUR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NORTH              
CAROLINA COAST.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY                
NEXT WEEK...WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING.                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-        
     656-658.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MPR                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MPR                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMG                                                                
LONG TERM...JRL                                                                 
AVIATION...CY                                                                   
MARINE...JRL                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
445 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A                    
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL                 
MOVE TOWARDS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OF NORTH              
CAROLINA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE NGT ACRS THE                
REGION. CLR OR MSTLY CLR THIS EVENG...THEN BECMG PRTLY CLDY OVR                 
SRN CNTIES TWD WED MORNG. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO                
UPR 60S.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                          
GOING CLSR TO COMBINATION OF 12Z ECMWF/NAM MDLS FOR THE TIMING/MOVEMENT         
OF SFC LO PRES THAT TRACKS ACRS THE SE STATES THEN OFF THE NC CST               
WED THRU THU MORNG. HIEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SE VA                
AND NE NC WED AFTN AND EVENG...WITH SLGT TO SML CHC POPS ACRS NRN               
1/3 OF CWA. HIEST POPS REMAIN ALNG THE CST LATER WED NGT INTO THU               
MORNG...AS LO TRACKS OFF NC CST AND CONTINES NE. QPF AMTS OF ARND               
.50 INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR EXTRM SE VA AND (ESPLY) NE                
NC FM THIS EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMTS POSSIBLE AS YOU GO NW ACRS                 
REGION. CLDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD TEMPS DWN ON WED...WITH MAX TEMPS               
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. INCLUDED ONLY SLGT CHC OF                  
TSRAS DUE TO TRACK OF LO AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.                               
ALTHO SFC LO PRES MOVES AWAY THU...FA WILL REMAIN IN A TROFINESS                
THRU FRI WITH LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. AS A RESULT...KEPT A SLGT                 
CHC FOR PCPN ALL AREAS THU AFTN THRU FRI. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S              
TO MID 80S THU...AND RANGING THRU THE 80S FRI.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI THRU             
EARLY SAT...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SRN QUEBEC.                 
COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS IN THE LATE EVENING IN SE                
VA/NC AS THE TROF MOVES OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY SILENT POPS              
FOR FRI NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROF DEPARTS AND WITH THE LOSS              
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S IN FAR WRN            
SECTIONS UP TO THE LWR 70S IN SE VA/NE NC ON FRI NIGHT.                         
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK TROF ROTATING THRU ON SAT AFTN/EVNG AND                
WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA. THE UPPER            
LEVEL LOW FINALLY DEPARTS SRN QUEBEC MOVING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN                
MARITIMES ON SUN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY SUN AFTERNOON              
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW WITH GOOD           
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE              
IN THE LWR TO MID 80S FRI AND SAT...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S BY              
SUN...AND EVENTUALLY UPR 80S/LWR 90S ON MON AND TUE AS S/SW FLOW                
STRENGTHENS AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN              
THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. THE REMAINS OF A                  
STALLED FRONT IN SC WILL HAVE A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ALONG IT WEDS               
AM BRINGING INCRSD CLD COVER AND A SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE                 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA LATE WEDS MORN. CHANCE FOR -RA AND                 
LWRG CIGS (MVFR/IFR) LATE MAINLY ACROSS SERN VA AND NERN NC. VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL THEN ENSUE ON THU AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK SEABREEZE HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST              
AND WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE/SE. NAM AND RUC INDICATE A SOUTHERLY              
SURGE OVER THE CHES BAY THIS EVENING (DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT               
BETWEEN THE WARM BAY WATERS AND COOLER LAND AREAS AFTER SUNSET).                
EXPECT 10 TO 15 KT S WINDS FOR THE CHES BAY LATE THIS EVENING THRU              
EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE (ALTHOUGH WINDS            
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA).                                              
A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR WED MORNING. WINDS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE               
ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF            
LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY OVER INLAND MISSISSIPPI). MODELS ARE NOT IN             
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE LOCATION/TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE                
LOW. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION AS THE OTHER               
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. AFTER                    
COORDINATING WITH MHX...RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM            
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA SOUTH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC...AND FOR               
THE CURRITUCK SOUND...FROM LATE WED NIGHT THRU EARLY THUR. WINDS                
WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE ON THUR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NORTH              
CAROLINA COAST.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY                
NEXT WEEK...WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING.                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-        
     656-658.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TMG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TMG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMG                                                                
LONG TERM...JRL                                                                 
AVIATION...CY                                                                   
MARINE...JRL                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1148 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL                      
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL END LATER THIS EVENING LEAVING             
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG.                                             
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH              
FROM CANADA AND PASS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND                  
LINGER INTO THE EVENING... MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.                       
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY               
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A WARM UP IS IN              
STORE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                      
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)                                                  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH            
ABOUT 02-03Z OR SO. RUC/NAM SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE EARLY THIS                
EVENING EAST/NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CADILLAC TO BIG RAPIDS TO             
LANSING... SO BELIEVE THE NE HALF OF THE CWFA WILL SEE SOME                     
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOON. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE               
TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS... PARTICULARLY IN SPOTS WHERE IT RAINED             
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.                                                         
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE NEXT CANADIAN H5 TROUGH AND               
COLD FRONT PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. LACK OF MOISTURE AND                  
POSITIVE TILT OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR                     
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE AT ONLY ISOLATED/20            
PERCENT. THE BEST MOISTURE IS INDICATED TO BE IN THE SRN CWFA WHICH             
MAY BE WHERE COVERAGE (ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE LIMITED) IS BEST                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                 
ON FRIDAY THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE ERN GRTLKS REGION AND             
WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD YIELD                    
DRY/MOSUNNY WEATHER AS MAIN DIURNAL CUMULUS/SHOWER DEVELOP OCCURS               
OVER ERN LWR MI.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                    
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO APPEAR DRY AND WARM AS SURFACE AND UPPER               
RIDGING PREVAILS.  BY MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE FROM THE                
GULF SHOULD COLLIDE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.                
THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA...FINALLY CLEARING              
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.  DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND THE AMOUNT OF             
GULF MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR            
THE SOUTHERN CWA.  CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER             
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES STILL              
SHOWS LEFTOVER RH WHICH COULD RESULT IN DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ON               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                          
MODELS KEEP TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER NORTH FLOW EVENT ON THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE              
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WE TEND TO UNDER FCST NORTH FLOW COLD                 
ADVECTION EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE COULD SEE SOME RATHER                    
CHOPPY/HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... SPREADING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG                   
QUESTION THOUGH IS HOW MUCH OF A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND                
THERE WILL BE AS THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES OUT TOWARD OPEN              
WATERS. EVEN FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY RATHER WINDY FROM THE NORTH...            
UNTIL SFC RIDGING FIRMLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1148 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
THE SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING OUT OF THE AREA AS I WRITE THIS AT 1145 PM            
THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE                 
SHORTWAVE AND THERE IS NOT MUCH COOL DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT.               
THUS GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN OVER PARTS OF              
THE AREA TODAY...I NOW BELIEVE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IT               
SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING THOUGH.                                           
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE                  
NORTHEAST OF GREAT LAKES WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS                  
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. I STILL BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS            
ARE WEST OF US-131 AND NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-94.                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
NO HYDRO CONCERNS. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL ONLY                 
RESULT IN A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF PCPN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     MEADE                                                             
SHORT TERM:   MEADE                                                             
LONG TERM:    JK                                                                
MARINE:       MEADE                                                             
AVIATION:     WDM                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1145 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY SOME                   
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AROUND TERMINALS. MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS                    
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE INLAND OF                
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1010 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                                 
LAST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FALL APART WITH              
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT                
OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH NEXT BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING                    
SOUTHWEST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE                 
WAS MAINLY DIURNAL ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AND                
EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE OVER LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                  
EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG/ST DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS                   
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER THAT SAW A FAIR BIT OF RAIN TODAY...AND              
WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY LESS THAN 5F.                   
JPB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER                   
CONVOLUTED PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                
WITH A MORE DOMINANT SURFACE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE                 
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE AIDED IN THE                     
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOW MOST NUMEROUS                    
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED               
UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS IOSCO AND ALCONA COUNTIES                  
WHERE STORMS HAVE STALLED ALONG LAKE BREEZES. A COUPLE STORMS HAVE              
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE DUE TO LARGE HAIL...BUT HAVE NOT BECOME                
CONVINCED ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WARNINGS AND DID NOT RECEIVE ANY                  
REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS NW              
LOWER AS WELL AS EASTERN UPPER AT THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS OVER QUEBEC AND SASKATCHEWAN                
HAS SHIFTED TO THE SE...AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE                  
MOST PART. ANOTHER POTENT WAVE NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO HAS EYES SET ON              
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WILL POSE MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR                    
TOMORROW. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE                 
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ACROSS SE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE                     
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...                  
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND PRIMARILY CONFINED               
TO NE LOWER WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PREVALENT. BUT WILL                
LEAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE LOWER THROUGH ABOUT                      
MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE              
NORTH UNDER A DRY PREVAILING NNE WIND. THE LIGHT ONSHORE WIND                   
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR OSC AND                
HARRISVILLE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG AND HAVE GIVEN THE                
FOG WORDING A BOOST. STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SWING                 
TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER                
DRY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.                                                  
TOMORROW...THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                 
MICHIGAN.  EVEN THOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE                   
NAM/GFS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SHORT SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.              
IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DPVA TO YIELD                
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD MOTION.  NONETHELESS...500MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO -19C TO -20C ACROSS NE LOWER AND SERVE TO             
STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7.0 C/KM.  NNE LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS FROM MIXING OUT ACROSS NE LOWER.               
USING A 75/54F PARCEL...A 21Z PROGGED SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH                 
YIELDS ABOUT 700 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH NO CIN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE          
STRONGER THAN TODAY...AND SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZES FROM FORMING              
ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE HURON SHORE MAY BE                
WEAK ENOUGH TO TURN WINDS MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD HELP             
FOCUS CONVECTION.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO PROVIDE A BOOST AS               
WELL.  SO HAVE EXPANDED LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE ALL OF NE                 
LOWER AND DRUMMOND ISLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE                  
SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS TODAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                 
MPC                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THRU THE              
BASE OF THE 500 MB UPPER LOW AND THRU THE ERN HALF OF OUR CWA                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.                 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN            
FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NW AWAY FROM THE            
STATE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS MICHIGAN...               
WITH DRY WX AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY               
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.                 
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN            
US WILL LIFT NE FURTHER INTO QUEBEC....WHILE THE WRN RIDGE WILL HOLD            
ITS POSITION OVER THE US ROCKIES. CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE LEE OF              
THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER               
ESTABLISHED OVER THIS REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE POINTING TOWARD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                 
GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE SE US THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT IS A RATHER                 
STAGNANT WX PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE US OVER THE NEXT WEEK...              
WITH MICHIGAN STUCK IN WEAK RIDGING THRU THE COLUMN. CERTAINLY                  
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST.                   
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                 
WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER             
70S TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...LAST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FALL               
APART WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL                 
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH NEXT BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY                 
ROTATING SOUTHWEST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS                
FEATURE WAS MAINLY DIURNAL ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THIS                        
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE OVER LOWER MI                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG/ST DEVELOP OVERNIGHT                 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER THAT SAW A FAIR BIT                
OF RAIN TODAY...AND WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE                     
ALREADY LESS THAN 5F.                                                           
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER                   
CONVOLUTED PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                
WITH A MORE DOMINANT SURFACE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE                 
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE AIDED IN THE                     
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOW MOST NUMEROUS                    
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED               
UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS IOSCO AND ALCONA COUNTIES                  
WHERE STORMS HAVE STALLED ALONG LAKE BREEZES. A COUPLE STORMS HAVE              
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE DUE TO LARGE HAIL...BUT HAVE NOT BECOME                
CONVINCED ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WARNINGS AND DID NOT RECEIVE ANY                  
REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS NW              
LOWER AS WELL AS EASTERN UPPER AT THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS OVER QUEBEC AND SASKATCHEWAN                
HAS SHIFTED TO THE SE...AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE                  
MOST PART. ANOTHER POTENT WAVE NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO HAS EYES SET ON              
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WILL POSE MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR                    
TOMORROW. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE                 
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ACROSS SE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE                     
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...                  
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND PRIMARILY CONFINED               
TO NE LOWER WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PREVALENT. BUT WILL                
LEAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE LOWER THROUGH ABOUT                      
MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE              
NORTH UNDER A DRY PREVAILING NNE WIND. THE LIGHT ONSHORE WIND                   
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR OSC AND                
HARRISVILLE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG AND HAVE GIVEN THE                
FOG WORDING A BOOST. STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SWING                 
TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER                
DRY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.                                                  
TOMORROW...THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                 
MICHIGAN.  EVEN THOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE                   
NAM/GFS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SHORT SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.              
IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DPVA TO YIELD                
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD MOTION.  NONETHELESS...500MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO -19C TO -20C ACROSS NE LOWER AND SERVE TO             
STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7.0 C/KM.  NNE LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS FROM MIXING OUT ACROSS NE LOWER.               
USING A 75/54F PARCEL...A 21Z PROGGED SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH                 
YIELDS ABOUT 700 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH NO CIN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE          
STRONGER THAN TODAY...AND SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZES FROM FORMING              
ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE HURON SHORE MAY BE                
WEAK ENOUGH TO TURN WINDS MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD HELP             
FOCUS CONVECTION.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO PROVIDE A BOOST AS               
WELL.  SO HAVE EXPANDED LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE ALL OF NE                 
LOWER AND DRUMMOND ISLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE                  
SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS TODAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                 
MPC                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THRU THE              
BASE OF THE 500 MB UPPER LOW AND THRU THE ERN HALF OF OUR CWA                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.                 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN            
FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NW AWAY FROM THE            
STATE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS MICHIGAN...               
WITH DRY WX AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY               
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.                 
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN            
US WILL LIFT NE FURTHER INTO QUEBEC....WHILE THE WRN RIDGE WILL HOLD            
ITS POSITION OVER THE US ROCKIES. CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE LEE OF              
THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER               
ESTABLISHED OVER THIS REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE POINTING TOWARD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                 
GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE SE US THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT IS A RATHER                 
STAGNANT WX PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE US OVER THE NEXT WEEK...              
WITH MICHIGAN STUCK IN WEAK RIDGING THRU THE COLUMN. CERTAINLY                  
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST.                   
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                 
WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER             
70S TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.             
AVIATION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                                 
VALID ONLY FOR TAFS ISSUED AT 00Z...SPOTTY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO               
WIND DOWN THIS EVENING... WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...             
AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG/ST ESPECIALLY AROUND TVC. MORE DIURNAL                    
SHOWERS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE                  
INLAND OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.                                               
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1005 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST                   
AREA. PLAN TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP WORDING FROM THE                 
REST OF THIS EVENINGS FORECAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                           
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE                  
CURRENT UPPER 50 SFC DEWPOINTS SUGGEST A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG                  
OVERNIGHT IS STILL JUSTIFIED. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                      
UPSTREAM HOWEVER WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
OVERNIGHT. SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF FOG TO BE ANYTHING                  
MORE THAN PATCHY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 716 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS               
THE REGION BETWEEN FNT AND DTW. THESE ARE A RESULT OF A COMBINATION             
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WANING DAYTIME                
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE                 
CONVECTION DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. THUS...SEE NO REASON TO            
MENTION ANY EVENING THUNDER IN THE 00Z TAFS. ANTICIPATING THE                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS OAKLAND COUNTY WILL WEAKEN            
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THUS...EXPECTING MORE OF A VARIABILITY IN            
THE WINDS AT DTW THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO             
THE NORTH.                                                                      
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST SOME FOG POTENTIAL. WITH             
SATELLITE SUPPORTING MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE              
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PLAN TO JUST             
DROP VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.                   
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                             
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                                         
THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A                   
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN             
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG                
UNDER EXTREMELY MEAGER ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES (ABOVE 500MB). A               
COMPOSITE LAKE/CONVECTIVE THERMAL GRADIENT HAS ESTABLISHED FROM                 
ROUGHLY PORT HURON TO BAY CITY. MODELS INDICATE A PUSH OF THE                   
BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS            
LOST AND WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY PUSHES IN BEHIND. WITH THE WEAKLY                 
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE UNTIL A SURFACE               
INVERSION GROWS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS            
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ALONG               
ANY BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND OR CELL MERGERS. GIVEN WEAK MEAN                 
LAYER FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL               
UNDER SLOW MOVING/STALLED THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO HALF INCH AND                  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE EXPERIENCED.                                     
WITH AN INFILTRATING MARINE AIRMASS AND WEAK FLOW HAVE ADDED PATCHY             
FOG FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO...WITH ANY DENSE SPOTS REMAINING             
ISOLATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER            
60S SOUTH.                                                                      
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                     
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN               
UPPER LOW IS ON SATELLITE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL                 
AFFECT SE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM            
IS THAT THE SYSTEM FROM TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT ENOUGH               
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB TO REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SUPPORT FROM               
THE WAVE. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW, AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING,               
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN -14C AND                
-17C. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE UPPER 70S/UPPER            
50S TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE 12Z MODELS ARE             
NOT GREATLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION            
BUT A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION,             
WHICH INCLUDES LAKE BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTIONS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC             
CONTRIBUTIONS.                                                                  
THIS WAVE WILL DO A BETTER JOB OF SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE              
LOW LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM             
DURING FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AND                   
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT, WILL PROVIDE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER.                 
THE LARGER STORY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ATTEMPTING               
TO TAKE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                     
LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS THEN                  
LOOK REASONABLE IN MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS OVER SE MICHIGAN ON               
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED               
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH.                               
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL REPRESENT A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN                 
AHEAD OF A WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS PART OF A TREND IN THE               
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                
THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD AFTER CONSIDERING THE FLOW WILL BE FORCED BY              
RELIABLE DEPICTIONS OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN                   
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE               
THAT THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP A LONG WAVE RIDGE ANCHORED              
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND GUIDE THE WESTERLIES FROM CENTRAL                
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CUT OFF LOW LUMBERS              
AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WE EXPECT THE WARM ADVECTION            
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT SOME         
CLOUDS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A             
GOOD BET.                                                                       
GIVEN THAT A STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT                  
LAKES, A REASONABLE SCENARIO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES A COLD                
FRONT SETTLING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY                
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GLOBAL MODELS DRAW SOME MOISTURE INTO             
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CUT OFF LOW THAT IS STILL DRIFTING IN THE             
PLAINS. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST             
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH VARIABILITY WILL BE INVOLVED IN THE POSITION OF            
THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES               
THROUGH, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD END UP DRY AS THE UPPER LOW                
DRIFTS WESTWARD AND AWAITS THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST TROUGH BEFORE                 
LIFTING BACK INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. EITHER WAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES            
DO APPEAR TO BE A MORE SOLID PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE MID                
WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO QUEBEC.                               
MARINE...                                                                       
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS              
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO                    
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WIND SPEED WILL BE MODEST BUT THE LONG NE FETCH OF            
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE HIGH SIDE ON THE BAY AND LAKE             
HURON WATERS BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.            
THE NE WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIVE THE CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS MORE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WILL             
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW BACKING OF THE WIND TOWARD THE SW BY SATURDAY.            
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
738 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...SPOTTY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...             
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG/ST               
ESPECIALLY AROUND TVC. MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THURSDAY                   
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE INLAND OF THE TERMINAL                     
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                              
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER                   
CONVOLUTED PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                
WITH A MORE DOMINANT SURFACE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE                 
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE AIDED IN THE                     
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOW MOST NUMEROUS                    
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED               
UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS IOSCO AND ALCONA COUNTIES                  
WHERE STORMS HAVE STALLED ALONG LAKE BREEZES. A COUPLE STORMS HAVE              
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE DUE TO LARGE HAIL...BUT HAVE NOT BECOME                
CONVINCED ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WARNINGS AND DID NOT RECEIVE ANY                  
REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS NW              
LOWER AS WELL AS EASTERN UPPER AT THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS OVER QUEBEC AND SASKATCHEWAN                
HAS SHIFTED TO THE SE...AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE                  
MOST PART. ANOTHER POTENT WAVE NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO HAS EYES SET ON              
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WILL POSE MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR                    
TOMORROW. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE                 
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ACROSS SE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE                     
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  WITH LOSS OF                            
HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND PRIMARILY              
CONFINED TO NE LOWER WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PREVALENT.                
BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE LOWER THROUGH ABOUT             
MIDNIGHT.  THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE             
NORTH UNDER A DRY PREVAILING NNE WIND. THE LIGHT ONSHORE WIND                   
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR OSC AND                
HARRISVILLE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG AND HAVE GIVEN THE FOG            
WORDING A BOOST.  STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SWING TOWARDS            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER DRY DUE TO             
A LACK OF MOISTURE.                                                             
TOMORROW...THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                 
MICHIGAN.  EVEN THOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE                   
NAM/GFS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SHORT SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.              
IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DPVA TO YIELD                
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD MOTION.  NONETHELESS...500MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO -19C TO -20C ACROSS NE LOWER AND SERVE TO             
STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7.0 C/KM.  NNE LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS FROM MIXING OUT ACROSS NE LOWER.               
USING A 75/54F PARCEL...A 21Z PROGGED SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH                 
YIELDS ABOUT 700 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH NO CIN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE          
STRONGER THAN TODAY...AND SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZES FROM FORMING              
ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE HURON SHORE MAY BE                
WEAK ENOUGH TO TURN WINDS MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD HELP             
FOCUS CONVECTION.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO PROVIDE A BOOST AS               
WELL.  SO HAVE EXPANDED LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE ALL OF NE                 
LOWER AND DRUMMOND ISLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE                  
SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS TODAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                 
MPC                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THRU THE              
BASE OF THE 500 MB UPPER LOW AND THRU THE ERN HALF OF OUR CWA                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.                 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN            
FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NW AWAY FROM THE            
STATE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS MICHIGAN...               
WITH DRY WX AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY               
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.                 
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN            
US WILL LIFT NE FURTHER INTO QUEBEC....WHILE THE WRN RIDGE WILL HOLD            
ITS POSITION OVER THE US ROCKIES. CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE LEE OF              
THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER               
ESTABLISHED OVER THIS REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE POINTING TOWARD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                 
GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE SE US THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT IS A RATHER                 
STAGNANT WX PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE US OVER THE NEXT WEEK...              
WITH MICHIGAN STUCK IN WEAK RIDGING THRU THE COLUMN. CERTAINLY                  
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST.                   
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                 
WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER             
70S TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
716 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS               
THE REGION BETWEEN FNT AND DTW. THESE ARE A RESULT OF A COMBINATION             
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WANING DAYTIME                
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE                 
CONVECTION DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. THUS...SEE NO REASON TO            
MENTION ANY EVENING THUNDER IN THE 00Z TAFS. ANTICIPATING THE                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS OAKLAND COUNTY WILL WEAKEN            
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THUS...EXPECTING MORE OF A VARIABILITY IN            
THE WINDS AT DTW THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO             
THE NORTH.                                                                      
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST SOME FOG POTENTIAL. WITH             
SATELLITE SUPPORTING MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE              
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PLAN TO JUST             
DROP VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                            
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                                         
THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A                   
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN             
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG                
UNDER EXTREMELY MEAGER ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES (ABOVE 500MB). A               
COMPOSITE LAKE/CONVECTIVE THERMAL GRADIENT HAS ESTABLISHED FROM                 
ROUGHLY PORT HURON TO BAY CITY. MODELS INDICATE A PUSH OF THE                   
BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS            
LOST AND WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY PUSHES IN BEHIND. WITH THE WEAKLY                 
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE UNTIL A SURFACE               
INVERSION GROWS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS            
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ALONG               
ANY BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND OR CELL MERGERS. GIVEN WEAK MEAN                 
LAYER FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL               
UNDER SLOW MOVING/STALLED THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO HALF INCH AND                  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE EXPERIENCED.                                     
WITH AN INFILTRATING MARINE AIRMASS AND WEAK FLOW HAVE ADDED PATCHY             
FOG FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO...WITH ANY DENSE SPOTS REMAINING             
ISOLATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER            
60S SOUTH.                                                                      
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                     
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN               
UPPER LOW IS ON SATELLITE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL                 
AFFECT SE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM            
IS THAT THE SYSTEM FROM TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT ENOUGH               
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB TO REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SUPPORT FROM               
THE WAVE. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW, AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING,               
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN -14C AND                
-17C. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE UPPER 70S/UPPER            
50S TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE 12Z MODELS ARE             
NOT GREATLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION            
BUT A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION,             
WHICH INCLUDES LAKE BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTIONS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC             
CONTRIBUTIONS.                                                                  
THIS WAVE WILL DO A BETTER JOB OF SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE              
LOW LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM             
DURING FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AND                   
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT, WILL PROVIDE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER.                 
THE LARGER STORY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ATTEMPTING               
TO TAKE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                     
LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS THEN                  
LOOK REASONABLE IN MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS OVER SE MICHIGAN ON               
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED               
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH.                               
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL REPRESENT A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN                 
AHEAD OF A WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS PART OF A TREND IN THE               
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                
THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD AFTER CONSIDERING THE FLOW WILL BE FORCED BY              
RELIABLE DEPICTIONS OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN                   
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE               
THAT THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP A LONG WAVE RIDGE ANCHORED              
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND GUIDE THE WESTERLIES FROM CENTRAL                
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CUT OFF LOW LUMBERS              
AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WE EXPECT THE WARM ADVECTION            
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT SOME         
CLOUDS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A             
GOOD BET.                                                                       
GIVEN THAT A STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT                  
LAKES, A REASONABLE SCENARIO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES A COLD                
FRONT SETTLING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY                
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GLOBAL MODELS DRAW SOME MOISTURE INTO             
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CUT OFF LOW THAT IS STILL DRIFTING IN THE             
PLAINS. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST             
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH VARIABILITY WILL BE INVOLVED IN THE POSITION OF            
THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES               
THROUGH, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD END UP DRY AS THE UPPER LOW                
DRIFTS WESTWARD AND AWAITS THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST TROUGH BEFORE                 
LIFTING BACK INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. EITHER WAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES            
DO APPEAR TO BE A MORE SOLID PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE MID                
WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO QUEBEC.                               
MARINE...                                                                       
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS              
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO                    
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WIND SPEED WILL BE MODEST BUT THE LONG NE FETCH OF            
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE HIGH SIDE ON THE BAY AND LAKE             
HURON WATERS BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.            
THE NE WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIVE THE CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS MORE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WILL             
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW BACKING OF THE WIND TOWARD THE SW BY SATURDAY.            
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
656 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER                
WESTERN ONTARIO SEPARATING A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC FROM A LOW               
OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE               
BASE OF QUEBEC LOW IS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. ANOTHER                             
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN                    
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER                   
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER              
MICHIGAN. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A              
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO IOWA.            
FAIRLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND UPPER                  
MICHIGAN. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND               
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                             
THE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SETTLE A LITTLE SOUTHEAST                        
TONIGHT...WHILE THE QUEBEC LOW BACKS UP INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A               
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWEEP INTO EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR. THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEFLECTED A                 
LITTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.                       
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HUDSON BAY RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS NORTH               
ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL                 
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.            
A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER                
NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRETCH SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. DRY AIR                
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF DEVELOPING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.             
THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST                   
THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE              
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SUPPORT INCREASE INSTABILITY EARLY.             
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND THE                   
ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OCCURRING.                                                   
.LONG TERM (THU NGT THRU WED)...                                                
EXPECT A DRY NITE THU NGT WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY            
12Z FRI UNDER RISING UPR HGTS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV PASSING THE ERN             
CWA ON THU. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLDS OVER THE E TOWARD THE LOWER HTS/            
LOWER MID LVL TEMPS...BUT THE W HALF WL BE MOCLR. EXPECT THE LOWEST             
MIN TEMPS BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF CLOSER TO THE               
SFC HI/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LOWER PWAT AOB 0.5 INCH.                            
THE MN HI CENTER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY INTO NW WI ON FRI AS                
SHRTWV RDG ALF JUTS INTO THE UPR LKS. EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT CU INLAND             
FM LK STABILIZATION...SKIES WL BE SUNNY WITH CORE OF DRY AIRMASS                
OVHD. MIXING TO H75 ON GFS FCST SDNGS (H85 TEMPS ARND 13C) YIELDS HI            
TEMPS ARND 80 AWAY OVER THE INTERIOR. PER THE FVRD DRIER GFS FCST               
SDNGS...DWPTS WL MIX OUT TO NEAR 40 IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN              
RH NEAR 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY WITH RDG AXIS NEARBY...WINDS WL BE LGT              
WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HIER TEMPS/LOWER DWPTS WL AGGRAVATE RECENT             
DRYNESS THE MOST. THE STRONGEST WINDS (NNW UP TO 15 MPH) ARE MOST               
LIKELY OVER THE E IN SOMEWHAT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT FARTHER FM ACYC             
CENTER...BUT THIS FLOW WL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT LK COOLING/                  
MOISTENING INTO THE E UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH IN THE AFTN WITH THE             
WEAKENING GRADIENT.                                                             
FRI NGT WL BE ANOTHER MOCLR...QUIET ONE...BUT A STRENGTHENING LLVL              
WNW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF SFC RDG SINKING TOWARD IA BY 12Z SAT WL            
LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP. THE IMPACT OF THE STRONGER FLOW WL              
BE GREATEST NEAR THE QUICKLY WRMG WATERS OF LK SUP (SFC WATER TEMP              
IS UP TO 63 AT THE WRN BUOY AND 60 AT THE CNTRL/ERN BUOYS)...WITH               
THE LOWEST MINS NEAR THE WI BORDER CLOSER TO THE WEAKER GRADIENT AND            
CORE OF LOWER PWAT ARND 0.5 INCH.                                               
THERE ARE HINTS A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF WL PASS THRU               
ONTARIO ON SAT INTO SAT NGT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED HGT FALLS LOOK TO              
BE TOO FAR N CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WL BE IN PLACE.              
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE CLD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN                    
TIER...WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST. SAT WL BE WARMER THAN FRI WITH H85             
TEMPS FCST 1-2C HIER IN LLVL WNW FLOW. GFS SHOWS SOME MOIST ADVCTN              
WITH RISING MIXING RATIO IN THE MIXED LYR...SO EXPECT DIURNAL CU                
DVLPMNT. EVEN WITH SOME INCRS IN LLVL MSTR...DWPTS WL MIX OUT INTO              
THE 40S IN THE AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. THE RESULT WL BE                  
ANOTHER DAY WITH MIN RH WITH AOB 30 PCT.                                        
SUN LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY WITH DRY WLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF BACK DOOR            
COLD FNT DROPPING SLOWLY THRU ONTARIO IN WNW FLOW ALF PRESENT THERE             
ON SW FLANK OF VORTEX OVER NE CAN. WITH H85 TEMPS PEAKING ARND                  
16C... EXPECT DAYTIME HI TEMPS PEAKING IN THE 80S AWAY FM LK                    
MODERATION. BACK DOOR COLD FROPA FM THE N STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR              
MON...BUT RELATIVELY HI HGTS ON SRN FLANK OF MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES            
TO THE N/DRY AIRMASS WL RESTRICT PCPN COVG. WL RETAIN GOING 20 POP.             
THEN DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER ON TUE WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES BLDG IN             
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FROPA AS UPR TROFFING AMPLIFIES IN ERN                
CAN. AS THIS HI SINKS SE TOWARD THE NE CONUS ON WED...INCRSG SLY                
FLOW ON ITS WRN FLANK AND E OF DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W WL ADVECT              
MORE MSTR BACK TOWARD THE UPR LKS. WL GO WITH INCRSG CLDS ON WED AND            
INTRODUCE LO CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTN.                            
COORDINATED WITH APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT            
AND ADD MOISTURE OFF OF TORCH LAKE TO THE EAST OF KCMX COULD RESULT             
IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST TWO NIGHTS. THIS WILL                
PRODUCE FOG AT KCMX...WOULD PROBABLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ANYWHERE              
FROM LIFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSAW               
AND WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR KCMX AS WELL.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL SETTLE ACROSS GREAT              
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20                
KNOTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO CHANNELING             
BETWEEN MINNESOTA SHORELINE AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES              
SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS              
OR LESS THROUGH THE EST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
405 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                                        
THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A                   
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN             
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG                
UNDER EXTREMELY MEAGER ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES (ABOVE 500MB). A               
COMPOSITE LAKE/CONVECTIVE THERMAL GRADIENT HAS ESTABLISHED FROM                 
ROUGHLY PORT HURON TO BAY CITY. MODELS INDICATE A PUSH OF THE                   
BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS            
LOST AND WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY PUSHES IN BEHIND. WITH THE WEAKLY                 
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE UNTIL A SURFACE               
INVERSION GROWS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS            
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ALONG               
ANY BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND OR CELL MERGERS. GIVEN WEAK MEAN                 
LAYER FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL               
UNDER SLOW MOVING/STALLED THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO HALF INCH AND                  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE EXPERIENCED.                                     
WITH AN INFILTRATING MARINE AIRMASS AND WEAK FLOW HAVE ADDED PATCHY             
FOG FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO...WITH ANY DENSE SPOTS REMAINING             
ISOLATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER            
60S SOUTH.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                    
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN               
UPPER LOW IS ON SATELLITE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL                 
AFFECT SE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM            
IS THAT THE SYSTEM FROM TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT ENOUGH               
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB TO REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SUPPORT FROM               
THE WAVE. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW, AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING,               
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN -14C AND                
-17C. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE UPPER 70S/UPPER            
50S TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE 12Z MODELS ARE             
NOT GREATLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION            
BUT A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION,             
WHICH INCLUDES LAKE BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTIONS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC             
CONTRIBUTIONS.                                                                  
THIS WAVE WILL DO A BETTER JOB OF SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE              
LOW LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM             
DURING FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AND                   
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT, WILL PROVIDE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER.                 
THE LARGER STORY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ATTEMPTING               
TO TAKE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                     
LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS THEN                  
LOOK REASONABLE IN MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS OVER SE MICHIGAN ON               
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED               
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH.                               
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL REPRESENT A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN                 
AHEAD OF A WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS PART OF A TREND IN THE               
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                
THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD AFTER CONSIDERING THE FLOW WILL BE FORCED BY              
RELIABLE DEPICTIONS OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN                   
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE               
THAT THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP A LONG WAVE RIDGE ANCHORED              
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND GUIDE THE WESTERLIES FROM CENTRAL                
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CUT OFF LOW LUMBERS              
AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WE EXPECT THE WARM ADVECTION            
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT SOME         
CLOUDS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A             
GOOD BET.                                                                       
GIVEN THAT A STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT                  
LAKES, A REASONABLE SCENARIO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES A COLD                
FRONT SETTLING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY                
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GLOBAL MODELS DRAW SOME MOISTURE INTO             
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CUT OFF LOW THAT IS STILL DRIFTING IN THE             
PLAINS. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST             
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH VARIABILITY WILL BE INVOLVED IN THE POSITION OF            
THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES               
THROUGH, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD END UP DRY AS THE UPPER LOW                
DRIFTS WESTWARD AND AWAITS THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST TROUGH BEFORE                 
LIFTING BACK INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. EITHER WAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES            
DO APPEAR TO BE A MORE SOLID PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE MID                
WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO QUEBEC.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS              
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO                    
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WIND SPEED WILL BE MODEST BUT THE LONG NE FETCH OF            
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE HIGH SIDE ON THE BAY AND LAKE             
HURON WATERS BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.            
THE NE WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIVE THE CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS MORE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WILL             
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW BACKING OF THE WIND TOWARD THE SW BY SATURDAY.            
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 239 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN                     
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES LYING AROUND THE               
CWA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY               
UNDERWAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THUS...MISSING              
THE AREA TERMINALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE                 
ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST             
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ACTIVITY              
NEAR TAWAS CITY IS ANCHORED ALONG THE FEATURE). ADDED A BR                      
MENTION WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL                 
TREND NORTHEASTERLY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
AVIATION.....CB                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS BUT AVIATION...                                    
.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL                      
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL END LATER THIS EVENING LEAVING             
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG.                                             
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH              
FROM CANADA AND PASS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND                  
LINGER INTO THE EVENING... MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.                       
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY               
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A WARM UP IS IN              
STORE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                      
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)                                                  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH            
ABOUT 02-03Z OR SO. RUC/NAM SHOW BEST SFC CONVERGENCE EARLY THIS                
EVENING EAST/NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CADILLAC TO BIG RAPIDS TO             
LANSING... SO BELIEVE THE NE HALF OF THE CWFA WILL SEE SOME                     
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOON. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE               
TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS... PARTICULARLY IN SPOTS WHERE IT RAINED             
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.                                                         
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE NEXT CANADIAN H5 TROUGH AND               
COLD FRONT PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. LACK OF MOISTURE AND                  
POSITIVE TILT OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR                     
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE AT ONLY ISOLATED/20            
PERCENT. THE BEST MOISTURE IS INDICATED TO BE IN THE SRN CWFA WHICH             
MAY BE WHERE COVERAGE (ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE LIMITED) IS BEST                    
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                 
ON FRIDAY THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE ERN GRTLKS REGION AND             
WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD YIELD                    
DRY/MOSUNNY WEATHER AS MAIN DIURNAL CUMULUS/SHOWER DEVELOP OCCURS               
OVER ERN LWR MI.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                    
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO APPEAR DRY AND WARM AS SURFACE AND UPPER               
RIDGING PREVAILS.  BY MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE FROM THE                
GULF SHOULD COLLIDE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA.                
THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA...FINALLY CLEARING              
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.  DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND THE AMOUNT OF             
GULF MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR            
THE SOUTHERN CWA.  CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER             
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE PROFILES STILL              
SHOWS LEFTOVER RH WHICH COULD RESULT IN DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ON               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                          
MODELS KEEP TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER NORTH FLOW EVENT ON THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE              
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WE TEND TO UNDER FCST NORTH FLOW COLD                 
ADVECTION EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE COULD SEE SOME RATHER                    
CHOPPY/HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS               
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... SPREADING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG                   
QUESTION THOUGH IS HOW MUCH OF A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND                
THERE WILL BE AS THAT WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES OUT TOWARD OPEN              
WATERS. EVEN FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY RATHER WINDY FROM THE NORTH...            
UNTIL SFC RIDGING FIRMLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(200 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.                 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE              
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY                 
ISOLATED.  FOR THE MOST PART VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL                
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MVFR CEILINGS             
AROUND TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE            
FRONT.  DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING              
HOURS OF THURSDAY...SO ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS CLEARING            
OCCURS TOWARD MID DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
NO HYDRO CONCERNS. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL ONLY                 
RESULT IN A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF PCPN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     MEADE                                                             
SHORT TERM:   MEADE                                                             
LONG TERM:    JK                                                                
MARINE:       MEADE                                                             
AVIATION:     JK                                                                
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
341 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A            
RATHER CONVOLUTED PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT               
LAKES WITH A MORE DOMINANT SURFACE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.  LAKE                 
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE AIDED IN THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOW MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS             
SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS             
OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS IOSCO AND ALCONA COUNTIES WHERE STORMS             
HAVE STALLED ALONG LAKE BREEZES.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE BECOME                   
MARGINALLY SEVERE DUE TO LARGE HAIL...BUT HAVE NOT BECOME CONVINCED             
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WARNINGS AND DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS TO THE             
CONTRARY.  MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS NW LOWER AS WELL AS           
EASTERN UPPER AT THIS HOUR.  OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE             
BETWEEN UPPER LOWS OVER QUEBEC AND SASKATCHEWAN HAS SHIFTED TO THE              
SE...AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE MOST PART.  ANOTHER                 
POTENT WAVE NEAR JAMES BAY ALSO HAS EYES SET ON NORTHERN                        
MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WILL POSE MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW.  MAIN             
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE ONGOING                        
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.              
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ACROSS SE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE                     
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  WITH LOSS OF                            
HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND PRIMARILY              
CONFINED TO NE LOWER WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PREVALENT.                
BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE LOWER THROUGH ABOUT             
MIDNIGHT.  THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE             
NORTH UNDER A DRY PREVAILING NNE WIND. THE LIGHT ONSHORE WIND                   
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR OSC AND                
HARRISVILLE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG AND HAVE GIVEN THE FOG            
WORDING A BOOST.  STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SWING TOWARDS            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER DRY DUE TO             
A LACK OF MOISTURE.                                                             
TOMORROW...THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN                 
MICHIGAN.  EVEN THOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE                   
NAM/GFS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SHORT SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.              
IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DPVA TO YIELD                
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD MOTION.  NONETHELESS...500MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO -19C TO -20C ACROSS NE LOWER AND SERVE TO             
STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7.0 C/KM.  NNE LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS FROM MIXING OUT ACROSS NE LOWER.               
USING A 75/54F PARCEL...A 21Z PROGGED SOUNDING NEAR WEST BRANCH                 
YIELDS ABOUT 700 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH NO CIN.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE          
STRONGER THAN TODAY...AND SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZES FROM FORMING              
ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE HURON SHORE MAY BE                
WEAK ENOUGH TO TURN WINDS MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD HELP             
FOCUS CONVECTION.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO PROVIDE A BOOST AS               
WELL.  SO HAVE EXPANDED LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE ALL OF NE                 
LOWER AND DRUMMOND ISLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE                  
SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS TODAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                 
MPC                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THRU THE              
BASE OF THE 500 MB UPPER LOW AND THRU THE ERN HALF OF OUR CWA                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.                 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN            
FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NW AWAY FROM THE            
STATE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS MICHIGAN...               
WITH DRY WX AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS BOTH THURSDAY               
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.                 
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN            
US WILL LIFT NE FURTHER INTO QUEBEC....WHILE THE WRN RIDGE WILL HOLD            
ITS POSITION OVER THE US ROCKIES. CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE LEE OF              
THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME BETTER               
ESTABLISHED OVER THIS REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE POINTING TOWARD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                 
GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE SE US THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE END RESULT IS A RATHER                 
STAGNANT WX PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE US OVER THE NEXT WEEK...              
WITH MICHIGAN STUCK IN WEAK RIDGING THRU THE COLUMN. CERTAINLY                  
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST.                   
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                 
WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER             
70S TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                   
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER.  A FEW                 
STORMS MAY IMPACT APN WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE TSRA AS PREVAILING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD            
DIMINISH BY 00Z...LEAVING THE REST OF THE NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR.  QUIET            
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
200 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(334 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
AN UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.            
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE LOW               
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLE            
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1130 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                     
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                          
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS               
WHICH ATTEMPTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST IS             
NOW BEING SHEARED OUT AND PUSHED SOUTH AS THE LARGE UPR TROUGH IN               
EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES RETROGRADING SWWD. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR              
COLD FRONT SLIPPING S/SW FROM FAR NRN LWR MI AND LK HURON.                      
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE NE                
PORTION OF THE CWFA WHERE SOME SFC HEATING IS TAKING PLACE THIS                 
MORNING AND WHERE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST AS COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES. RUC SOUNDINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON (21Z) ARE NOT                    
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE... WITH ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE. MOST OF            
THAT CAPE IS DOWN LOW... BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB... WITH VERY LITTLE             
CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C RANGE. THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE PROBABILITY              
OF ANY HAIL IS EXTREMELY LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY LOW              
OVER THE CWFA... BUT ABOUT 25 KTS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA. THUS            
STORMS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OF THE SCATTERED/PULSE VARIETY WITH                  
LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION.                                                      
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH INTO LOWER MI THURSDAY                     
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WE             
DECREASED POPS TO SLGT CHC. DRY WX EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH                    
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(334 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)                                            
ONE TREND OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TO FEATURE SOME WARMER                        
TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.  THE GFS AND ECMWF             
SUPPORT THIS CHANGE AS 850  MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN TO CLIMB INTO THE                
TEENS.  ALSO WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND...EVEN AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE              
SHOULD SEE THE WARMER TEMPS.  LOOKING AT THE TUE TIME FRAME...WE                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORMATION AND TRACK OF A COLD FRONT THAT               
WILL BE TRYING TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  BOTH THE GFS             
AND ECMWF HAVE THE FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST ON THAT DAY...SO I WILL               
KEEP THE HIGHS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL.  ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A                 
HUDSON BAY HIGH TRYING TO SET UP...SO NO RAIN ON TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1130 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                         
MODELS KEEP TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER NORTH FLOW EVENT ON THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE WAVES WILL STAY JUST BELOW            
SCA CRITERIA AT 2 TO 4 FEET... BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.              
COULD SEE SOME RATHER CHOPPY/HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING NEAR BIG AND             
LITTLE SABLE POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND SOUTH OF HOLLAND                  
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(200 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.                 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE              
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY                 
ISOLATED.  FOR THE MOST PART VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL                
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MVFR CEILINGS             
AROUND TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE            
FRONT.  DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING              
HOURS OF THURSDAY...SO ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS CLEARING            
OCCURS TOWARD MID DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(334 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
NO HYDRO CONCERNS TODAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL                
ONLY RESULT IN A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF PCPN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   MEADE                                                             
LONG TERM:    MJS                                                               
MARINE:       MEADE                                                             
AVIATION:     JK                                                                
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
135 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                  
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER.  A FEW                 
STORMS MAY IMPACT APN WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE TSRA AS PREVAILING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD            
DIMINISH BY 00Z...LEAVING THE REST OF THE NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR.  QUIET            
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                        
UPDATE...11Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
TWIN UPPER LOWS ONE SPINNING OVER QUEBEC AND ANOTHER OVER                       
SASKATCHEWAN.  MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS              
GENERATING A BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN TO CENTRAL              
MI...WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SHRINKING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE OVER            
EASTERN QUEBEC IS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND IS TRIGGERING A            
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  SURFACE PATTERN IS RATHER                    
CONVOLUTED AT THIS HOUR...BUT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE                      
TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING FROM ABOUT GREEN BAY TO SAGINAW                 
BAY...WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN               
LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL.  AN ADDITIONAL BACK-DOOR COOL FRONT MAY ALSO             
BE PRESENT OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS LAKE BREEZES GET ROLLING THIS             
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPWARD SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE                
JUST TO THE NORTH...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN                
FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.                                       
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL TEND TO BECOME EVEN MORE            
ILL-DEFINED AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT JUDGING BY THE 12Z APX SOUNDING                
BECOME OVERWHELMED BY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS.  MAX                    
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER               
TERRAIN EAST OF I-75...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN             
UPPER...WHERE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND CREATE                   
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE. WEAK MID-LEVEL -DIVQ AHEAD OF THE EASTERN               
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A BIT OF UPPER SUPPORT HEADING              
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER.  MODIFYING A 12Z APX                          
SOUNDING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S                 
YIELDS ABOUT 400-500 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH NO INHIBITION.  BELIEVE               
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE               
SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SEVERE CHANCES                  
REMAIN VERY VERY SMALL WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SKINNY              
CAPE.  JUST MADE A FEW OTHER TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT                 
LATEST TRENDS...BUT GIST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.                 
MPC                                                                             
DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 AM WED AUG 13...                                        
AN AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME             
A BIT SIMPLER LATE THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY. AN            
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL RETROGRADE TO THE ONTARIO                            
BORDER...WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY OPENING UP. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL            
MOVE SOUTH FROM SASK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE RIDGE TO IT/S            
WEST FOLDING OVER THE TOP. SO BY FRIDAY...IT/S A BASIC RIDGE WEST               
AND TROF EAST PATTERN...WITH AN EXTRANEOUS CUT-OFF LOW IN COLORADO.             
THE RESIDUAL UPPER TROFFING MAY COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO                 
PRODUCE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES...THAT/S THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                       
MODELS...DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS ALLOWS THE DECAYING EASTERN LOW TO               
DRIFT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BE              
TOO PROGRESSIVE...AND GIVEN THE WAY THE SUMMER HAS GONE...PREFER THE            
SLOWER NAM.                                                                     
TODAY...ONGOING SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI AND NEARBY WATERS            
ARE LEFTOVER LAKE-BREEZE CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY. THESE ARE BEING             
MAINTAINED (BARELY) BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS AND A RELATIVELY                      
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE LAKES (69/63 ON THE NORTHERN LAKE MI                
BUOY). AN 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY                      
SOUTHWARD...AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR                
THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN THE BRIDGE AND M-72.                                  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A 74/55 PARCEL RESULTS IN MLCAPES OF ABOUT               
400J/KG. NOTHING SPECTACULAR...BUT WITH NO INHIBITION...GENERAL                 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND DEVELOPING (WEAK) LAKE BREEZES...SCT                
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT             
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. IN EASTERN UPPER MI...               
BACKGROUND NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SUPERIOR BREEZE TO                   
OVERWHELM THE SOUTHERN LAKES...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF RAIN SMALLER               
AND SOUTH OF M-28. MAX TEMPS MAINLY MID 70S.                                    
TONIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO IN THE                 
INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER MI THRU LATE EVENING. THAT WILL BE                   
IT...AS NE 1000-850MB FLOW BRINGS IN COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL                 
AIR...COMBINING WITH LOSS OF HEATING TO WIPE OUT INSTABILITY.                   
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PRESUMING THAT THE                  
INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER MI SEES AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY...             
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY FOG              
TONIGHT AROUND HTL/CAD/GRAYLING. MIN TEMPS MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...             
SOME UPPER 40S IN THE USUAL INLAND COOL SPOTS.                                  
THURSDAY...WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 1C OFF OF 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN TODAY               
AND THURSDAY. BUT WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY MARGINAL...IT DOESN/T                
TAKE MUCH. MLCAPES ARE REDUCED TO 100-200J/KG WITH A 73/53 PARCEL.              
IN ADDITION...WE/RE DRIER ABOVE 850MB...PRODUCING ENTRAINMENT                   
ISSUES. SO WE SHOULD HAVE A MUCH LOWER RISK OF RAIN. WILL GO WITH AN            
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...             
NO FURTHER NORTH THAN GRAYLING. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY SUNNY START AND A            
PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS A HAIR COOLER IN THE LOW TO            
MID 70S.                                                                        
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF                  
HEATING. TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS A SPOKE OF ENERGY                 
AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED SLUG OF MOISTURE               
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.            
IF THIS HOLDS...A JUST OF SHOWERS MAY BE NEEDED IN NE LOWER MI ON               
FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT THIS WAVE HAS NOT EXISTED             
IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS...AND PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY FOR ONE MORE              
MODEL CYCLE. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY VERY CLOSE TO THURSDAYS LEVELS.                   
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE               
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX AND A SLOW                   
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...WE HAVE SEEN THESE                  
EASTERN TROFS HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS                
THIS SUMMER...SO TAKE THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. BUT FOR NOW APPEARS            
MOST PLACES WILL BREAK 80 BY SUNDAY. ECMWF ARGUES FOR EVEN WARMER WX            
BY MIDWEEK...THAT DEFINITELY CALLS FOR A /WAIT AND SEE/ APPROACH.               
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                                  
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND MARINE...                                        
.SYNOPSIS...(334 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
AN UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.            
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE LOW               
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLE            
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1130 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                     
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                          
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS               
WHICH ATTEMPTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST IS             
NOW BEING SHEARED OUT AND PUSHED SOUTH AS THE LARGE UPR TROUGH IN               
EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES RETROGRADING SWWD. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR              
COLD FRONT SLIPPING S/SW FROM FAR NRN LWR MI AND LK HURON.                      
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE NE                
PORTION OF THE CWFA WHERE SOME SFC HEATING IS TAKING PLACE THIS                 
MORNING AND WHERE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST AS COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES. RUC SOUNDINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON (21Z) ARE NOT                    
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE... WITH ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE. MOST OF            
THAT CAPE IS DOWN LOW... BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB... WITH VERY LITTLE             
CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C RANGE. THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE PROBABILITY              
OF ANY HAIL IS EXTREMELY LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY LOW              
OVER THE CWFA... BUT ABOUT 25 KTS IN THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA. THUS            
STORMS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OF THE SCATTERED/PULSE VARIETY WITH                  
LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION.                                                      
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH INTO LOWER MI THURSDAY                     
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WE             
DECREASED POPS TO SLGT CHC. DRY WX EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH                    
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(334 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)                                            
ONE TREND OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TO FEATURE SOME WARMER                        
TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.  THE GFS AND ECMWF             
SUPPORT THIS CHANGE AS 850  MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN TO CLIMB INTO THE                
TEENS.  ALSO WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND...EVEN AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE              
SHOULD SEE THE WARMER TEMPS.  LOOKING AT THE TUE TIME FRAME...WE                
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FORMATION AND TRACK OF A COLD FRONT THAT               
WILL BE TRYING TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  BOTH THE GFS             
AND ECMWF HAVE THE FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST ON THAT DAY...SO I WILL               
KEEP THE HIGHS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL.  ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A                 
HUDSON BAY HIGH TRYING TO SET UP...SO NO RAIN ON TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1130 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                         
MODELS KEEP TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER NORTH FLOW EVENT ON THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE WAVES WILL STAY JUST BELOW            
SCA CRITERIA AT 2 TO 4 FEET... BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.              
COULD SEE SOME RATHER CHOPPY/HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING NEAR BIG AND             
LITTLE SABLE POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND SOUTH OF HOLLAND                  
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(740 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                        
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SOME                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. I WOULD MONITOR                
RADAR THROUGH THE DAY...AS THERE FORMATION HAS BEEN RANDOM.  THEY               
WILL BE HIT OR MISS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOME ARE FOR              
KLAN TO KJXN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN TO HAVE SOME BETTER                  
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.    I DID MENTION VCTS FOR THESE SITES.              
AS FOR THIS MORNING SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE OVER LAKE MI. IT               
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND.  HOWEVER I DID               
MENTION VCSH FOR KMKG KGRR KAZO AND KBTL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT              
HZ OR BR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KAZO KBTL AND KJXN LATER                  
TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME MVFR VSBYS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(334 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008)                                       
NO HYDRO CONCERNS TODAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL                
ONLY RESULT IN A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF PCPN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     93                                                                
SHORT TERM:   MEADE                                                             
LONG TERM:    MJS                                                               
MARINE:       MEADE                                                             
AVIATION:     MJS                                                               
HYDROLOGY:    93                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1042 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...11Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW             
TWIN UPPER LOWS ONE SPINNING OVER QUEBEC AND ANOTHER OVER                       
SASKATCHEWAN.  MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS              
GENERATING A BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN TO CENTRAL              
MI...WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SHRINKING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE OVER            
EASTERN QUEBEC IS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND IS TRIGGERING A            
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  SURFACE PATTERN IS RATHER                    
CONVOLUTED AT THIS HOUR...BUT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE                      
TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING FROM ABOUT GREEN BAY TO SAGINAW                 
BAY...WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN               
LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL.  AN ADDITIONAL BACK-DOOR COOL FRONT MAY ALSO             
BE PRESENT OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS LAKE BREEZES GET ROLLING THIS             
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPWARD SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE                
JUST TO THE NORTH...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN                
FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.                                       
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL TEND TO BECOME EVEN MORE            
ILL-DEFINED AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT JUDGING BY THE 12Z APX SOUNDING                
BECOME OVERWHELMED BY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS.  MAX                    
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER               
TERRAIN EAST OF I-75...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN             
UPPER...WHERE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND CREATE                   
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE. WEAK MID-LEVEL -DIVQ AHEAD OF THE EASTERN               
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A BIT OF UPPER SUPPORT HEADING              
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER.  MODIFYING A 12Z APX                          
SOUNDING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S                 
YIELDS ABOUT 400-500 J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH NO INHIBITION.  BELIEVE               
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE               
SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.  SEVERE CHANCES                  
REMAIN VERY VERY SMALL WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND SKINNY              
CAPE.  JUST MADE A FEW OTHER TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO REFLECT                 
LATEST TRENDS...BUT GIST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
AVIATION...BIT OF IFR CEILING AT PLN EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD                  
QUICKLY BURN OFF. RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP A SMALL                 
THREAT OF A SHOWER OR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST               
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR APN. VFR TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                  
JZ                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 AM WED AUG 13...                                        
AN AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME             
A BIT SIMPLER LATE THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY. AN            
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL RETROGRADE TO THE ONTARIO                            
BORDER...WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY OPENING UP. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL            
MOVE SOUTH FROM SASK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE RIDGE TO IT/S            
WEST FOLDING OVER THE TOP. SO BY FRIDAY...IT/S A BASIC RIDGE WEST               
AND TROF EAST PATTERN...WITH AN EXTRANEOUS CUT-OFF LOW IN COLORADO.             
THE RESIDUAL UPPER TROFFING MAY COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO                 
PRODUCE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES...THAT/S THE MAIN CHALLENGE.                       
MODELS...DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS ALLOWS THE DECAYING EASTERN LOW TO               
DRIFT A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. GIVEN MODEL TENDENCY TO BE              
TOO PROGRESSIVE...AND GIVEN THE WAY THE SUMMER HAS GONE...PREFER THE            
SLOWER NAM.                                                                     
TODAY...ONGOING SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI AND NEARBY WATERS            
ARE LEFTOVER LAKE-BREEZE CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY. THESE ARE BEING             
MAINTAINED (BARELY) BY AN UPPER TROF AXIS AND A RELATIVELY                      
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE LAKES (69/63 ON THE NORTHERN LAKE MI                
BUOY). AN 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY                      
SOUTHWARD...AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR                
THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN THE BRIDGE AND M-72.                                  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A 74/55 PARCEL RESULTS IN MLCAPES OF ABOUT               
400J/KG. NOTHING SPECTACULAR...BUT WITH NO INHIBITION...GENERAL                 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND DEVELOPING (WEAK) LAKE BREEZES...SCT                
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST SHOT             
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. IN EASTERN UPPER MI...               
BACKGROUND NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SUPERIOR BREEZE TO                   
OVERWHELM THE SOUTHERN LAKES...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF RAIN SMALLER               
AND SOUTH OF M-28. MAX TEMPS MAINLY MID 70S.                                    
TONIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO IN THE                 
INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER MI THRU LATE EVENING. THAT WILL BE                   
IT...AS NE 1000-850MB FLOW BRINGS IN COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL                 
AIR...COMBINING WITH LOSS OF HEATING TO WIPE OUT INSTABILITY.                   
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PRESUMING THAT THE                  
INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER MI SEES AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY...             
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY FOG              
TONIGHT AROUND HTL/CAD/GRAYLING. MIN TEMPS MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S...             
SOME UPPER 40S IN THE USUAL INLAND COOL SPOTS.                                  
THURSDAY...WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 1C OFF OF 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN TODAY               
AND THURSDAY. BUT WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY MARGINAL...IT DOESN/T                
TAKE MUCH. MLCAPES ARE REDUCED TO 100-200J/KG WITH A 73/53 PARCEL.              
IN ADDITION...WE/RE DRIER ABOVE 850MB...PRODUCING ENTRAINMENT                   
ISSUES. SO WE SHOULD HAVE A MUCH LOWER RISK OF RAIN. WILL GO WITH AN            
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...             
NO FURTHER NORTH THAN GRAYLING. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY SUNNY START AND A            
PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS A HAIR COOLER IN THE LOW TO            
MID 70S.                                                                        
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF                  
HEATING. TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS A SPOKE OF ENERGY                 
AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED SLUG OF MOISTURE               
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.            
IF THIS HOLDS...A JUST OF SHOWERS MAY BE NEEDED IN NE LOWER MI ON               
FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT THIS WAVE HAS NOT EXISTED             
IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS...AND PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY FOR ONE MORE              
MODEL CYCLE. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY VERY CLOSE TO THURSDAYS LEVELS.                   
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE               
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX AND A SLOW                   
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...WE HAVE SEEN THESE                  
EASTERN TROFS HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS                
THIS SUMMER...SO TAKE THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. BUT FOR NOW APPEARS            
MOST PLACES WILL BREAK 80 BY SUNDAY. ECMWF ARGUES FOR EVEN WARMER WX            
BY MIDWEEK...THAT DEFINITELY CALLS FOR A /WAIT AND SEE/ APPROACH.               
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                                  
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
700 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
ADDED UPDATE SECTION AND INCLUDED NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z               
TAFS                                                                            
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISOLATED SHRA HAVE POPPED UP OVR DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. LOOKS              
LIKE INCOMING SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THE SHRA OVR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR              
AND A POCKET OF H85-H7 MOISTURE AND EVEN PERHAPS REMNANTS OF A WEAK             
SFC TROUGH WERE THE CULPRITS. 40KM RUC AND 06Z NAM HAVE THIS HIGHER             
RH AND THE RUC EVEN SHOWS A HUNDREDTH OF QPF IN THE RIGHT SPOT. BOTH            
OF THESE SIGNALS DRIFT SOUTH INTO NRN LK MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING.               
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFPMQT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SRN               
SASKATCHEWAN...A MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER WRN HUDSON BAY WITH A RIDGE                 
EXTENDING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES...AND A TROF/BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW              
OVER SE CANADA. THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES ARE FORCING A SHORTWAVE             
OVER MN/WRN WI TO THE SSE. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTEND            
FROM EXTREME WRN UPPER MI S THRU WI...BUT NOT ALL OF THE PCPN IS                
REACHING THE GROUND. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING S THRU ONTARIO             
AROUND THE MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA WAS PRODUCING -SHRA OVER FAR             
NCNTRL AND NE LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE A FEW TSRA NE OF THE LAKE               
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (420 AM EDT)...                                                     
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD N ALONG THE W                 
COAST OF THE CONUS AND THEN E TO CONNECT WITH THE MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER            
WRN HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN              
TO THE S. MEANWHILE...THE TROF OVER SE CANADA WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND SW            
THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE THE RIDGE SETTLES S INTO THE             
NCNTRL STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN              
FOR THE FCST AREA.                                                              
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS BY            
TO THE E THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PER RADAR TRENDS...WRN EDGE OF THE             
-SHRA MAY BRUSH THE FAR ERN FCST AREA...AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC             
OF MORNING -SHRA THERE. MEANWHILE...TO THE W...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL            
CONTINUE TO BE FORCED SSE THRU MN/WRN WI THOUGH FAR WRN UPPER MI MAY            
STILL GET CLIPPED BY A FEW -SHRA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. IT APPEARS GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK              
ENOUGH TODAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                   
CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZE FRONT WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO            
POOL. MODIFIED NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SFC T/TD OF MID 70S/MID             
50S YIELD CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. IF DWPTS RISE TO NEAR 60F               
LOCALLY...SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TOWARD A 1000J/KG. SO...WILL MAINTAIN            
SLIGHT CHC POPS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE                
FRONT CONVECTION. SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TO THE W ACROSS             
SRN UPPER MI...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE S THIS AFTN.                
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR JUST A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN                      
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
ANY PCPN SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...A SHORTWAVE                 
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER SE CANADA WILL SWING TOWARD LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. NO HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING ARE INDICATED AND AIRMASS                     
PRECEEDING SHORTWAVE IS QUITE DRY...SO NO POPS ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.              
EVEN AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU UPPER MI THU MORNING...HEIGHTS ARE                
RISING. LACK OF FORCING COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING IN THE                  
MORNING BEFORE PEAK HEATING SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT OF PCPN...AND                
WILL THUS MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. EWD EXTENSION OF MID/UPPER RIDGE                 
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL THEN SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES FRI...                
MAINTAINING A DRY WEATHER REGIME.                                               
LENGTHENING DRY SPELL IN MANY PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IS RAISING              
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BOTH THU AND FRI (ESPECIALLY FRI) WILL BE                
DAYS WITH LOW AFTN RH`S IN THE INTERIOR. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB ON             
PREFERRED DRIER GFS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DWPTS TO             
DROP INTO THE LWR/MID 40S THU AFTN AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                      
MODIFICATION. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S...AFTN RH               
WILL DROP TOWARD 30PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY                  
LIGHT THU. WITH DEEP MIXING UNDER FULL/NEARLY FULL SUN...GFS FCST               
SOUNDINGS FOR FRI INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES              
HIGHER AND DWPTS A FEW DEGREES LWR. RH MAY END UP AROUND 25PCT AWAY             
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR MODIFICATION. FORTUNATELY AGAIN...WINDS SHOULD BE            
RELATIVELY LIGHT.                                                               
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SAT.            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA               
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT...BUT WITH FRONT PROBABLY NOT SLIPPING S ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND HEIGHT FALLS PASSING BY TO THE NE...DRY WEATHER               
SHOULD PREVAIL HERE. THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE            
AREA SAT. UNDER WRLY WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CONSERVATIVELY TOP OUT                
AROUND 80/LWR 80S IN MOST AREAS. DRY/WARM WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST                
THRU SUN BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...                  
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SCT MID CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTN AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSES OVR ERN             
UPR MI. E/NE WINDS SET UP THIS AFTN AND PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT            
E WINDS/ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF TORCH LAKE TO THE EAST OF KCMX COULD              
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST TWO NIGHTS FOG AT            
KCMX...WOULD PROBABLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ANYWHERE FM LIFR TO MVFR             
VSBY WITH AN VLIFR CIG. SINCE IT IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT...             
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL SETTLE ACROSS GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. NE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS OVER FAR                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO CHANNELING BETWEEN                
MINNESOTA SHORELINE AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF             
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING WEST WINDS MAY REACH 25               
KNOTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SRN               
SASKATCHEWAN...A MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER WRN HUDSON BAY WITH A RIDGE                 
EXTENDING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES...AND A TROF/BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW              
OVER SE CANADA. THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES ARE FORCING A SHORTWAVE             
OVER MN/WRN WI TO THE SSE. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTEND            
FROM EXTREME WRN UPPER MI S THRU WI...BUT NOT ALL OF THE PCPN IS                
REACHING THE GROUND. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING S THRU ONTARIO             
AROUND THE MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA WAS PRODUCING -SHRA OVER FAR             
NCNTRL AND NE LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE A FEW TSRA NE OF THE LAKE               
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD N ALONG THE W                 
COAST OF THE CONUS AND THEN E TO CONNECT WITH THE MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER            
WRN HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN              
TO THE S. MEANWHILE...THE TROF OVER SE CANADA WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND SW            
THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE THE RIDGE SETTLES S INTO THE             
NCNTRL STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN              
FOR THE FCST AREA.                                                              
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PRODUCING SHRA OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS BY            
TO THE E THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PER RADAR TRENDS...WRN EDGE OF THE             
-SHRA MAY BRUSH THE FAR ERN FCST AREA...AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC             
OF MORNING -SHRA THERE. MEANWHILE...TO THE W...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL            
CONTINUE TO BE FORCED SSE THRU MN/WRN WI THOUGH FAR WRN UPPER MI MAY            
STILL GET CLIPPED BY A FEW -SHRA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. IT APPEARS GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK              
ENOUGH TODAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.                   
CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZE FRONT WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO            
POOL. MODIFIED NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SFC T/TD OF MID 70S/MID             
50S YIELD CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. IF DWPTS RISE TO NEAR 60F               
LOCALLY...SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TOWARD A 1000J/KG. SO...WILL MAINTAIN            
SLIGHT CHC POPS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE                
FRONT CONVECTION. SINCE FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TO THE W ACROSS             
SRN UPPER MI...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE S THIS AFTN.                
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR JUST A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN                      
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
ANY PCPN SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...A SHORTWAVE                 
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER SE CANADA WILL SWING TOWARD LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. NO HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING ARE INDICATED AND AIRMASS                     
PRECEEDING SHORTWAVE IS QUITE DRY...SO NO POPS ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.              
EVEN AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU UPPER MI THU MORNING...HEIGHTS ARE                
RISING. LACK OF FORCING COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING IN THE                  
MORNING BEFORE PEAK HEATING SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT OF PCPN...AND                
WILL THUS MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. EWD EXTENSION OF MID/UPPER RIDGE                 
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL THEN SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES FRI...                
MAINTAINING A DRY WEATHER REGIME.                                               
LENGTHENING DRY SPELL IN MANY PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IS RAISING              
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BOTH THU AND FRI (ESPECIALLY FRI) WILL BE                
DAYS WITH LOW AFTN RH`S IN THE INTERIOR. MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB ON             
PREFERRED DRIER GFS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DWPTS TO             
DROP INTO THE LWR/MID 40S THU AFTN AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                      
MODIFICATION. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S...AFTN RH               
WILL DROP TOWARD 30PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY                  
LIGHT THU. WITH DEEP MIXING UNDER FULL/NEARLY FULL SUN...GFS FCST               
SOUNDINGS FOR FRI INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES              
HIGHER AND DWPTS A FEW DEGREES LWR. RH MAY END UP AROUND 25PCT AWAY             
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR MODIFICATION. FORTUNATELY AGAIN...WINDS SHOULD BE            
RELATIVELY LIGHT.                                                               
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT DROPPING S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SAT.            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA               
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT...BUT WITH FRONT PROBABLY NOT SLIPPING S ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND HEIGHT FALLS PASSING BY TO THE NE...DRY WEATHER               
SHOULD PREVAIL HERE. THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE            
AREA SAT. UNDER WRLY WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CONSERVATIVELY TOP OUT                
AROUND 80/LWR 80S IN MOST AREAS. DRY/WARM WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST                
THRU SUN BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON...                  
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER QUEBEC AND A SECOND OVER MANITOBA...            
KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL             
KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT                 
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL SETTLE ACROSS GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. NE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS OVER FAR                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO CHANNELING BETWEEN                
MINNESOTA SHORELINE AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF             
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING WEST WINDS MAY REACH 25               
KNOTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
LEVEL TROUGHING IN SE CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SHRTWV              
ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE IN NE ONTARIO...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM            
NE MANITOBA SOUTHWARD INTO WI...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL                   
SASKATCHEWAN. SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SHRTWV OVER NW MN...NOTED BY             
A COMMA IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS             
SEEN EAST OF THIS SHRTWV ACROSS ERN MN...WI...WRN UPPER MI AND THEN             
NW INTO NRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO EXTENDS                
DOWN INTO THE LOW LEVELS...AT LEAST ACROSS MN AND WRN WI WHERE SCT              
-SHRA ARE OCCURRING ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. THE AIRMASS SO FAR HAS            
BEEN TOO DRY IN UPPER MI TO ALLOW FOR ANY -SHRA IN WRN WI TO MOVE               
IN...DESPITE THE RETURNS OFF OUR RADAR. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE             
DEVELOPED OVER THE REST OF UPPER MI IN BETWEEN LAKE BREEZES COMING              
OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...AGAIN BELIEVE THE AIRMASS            
IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FROM THE LAKE                
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE MIXED OUT TO AROUND 50F. 1740Z TAMDAR               
SOUNDING FROM SAW REFLECTS THE DRY AIR TOO...AND USING 77 TEMP OVER             
50 DEWPOINTS RESULTS IN NO CAPE. SOME CUMULUS ARE A BIT TALLER RIGHT            
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLING...ONE SHOWER HAS                 
MANAGED TO DEVELOP NEAR GULLIVER. TO OUR NE...SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW             
DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV               
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
SUBTLE FEATURES DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...               
WITH UPPER RIDGING BASICALLY HOLDING ON FROM NE ONTARIO INTO WRN                
UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z THU. THIS UPPER RIDGE DOES GET UNDERCUT BY THE             
SHRTWV IN MN DROPPING SE...IN ADDITION TO SQUEEZED AS THE SHRTWV IN             
NE ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT.              
THEREFORE...DRY AIR OVER THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO GET RID OF.             
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH DEFORMATION               
AND DPVA FROM THE NW MN SHRTWV SHOULD CREEP A BIT FARTHER INTO UPPER            
MI...MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH ANY                
SHOWERS THAT CAN MOVE IN FROM WRN WI...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE                
PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER WI. ALSO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
PCPN THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI IN THE EVENT                      
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP WHEN THE TWO LAKE BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR               
AND MICHIGAN COME TOGETHER...AND WITH STORM MOTION BEING NORTH TO               
SOUTH. WED AFTERNOON IS A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IT LOOKS             
LIKE A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FORM. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY             
NOT BE TOO STRONG...BUT THE WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE                   
COMPARED TO THE EAST WIND THAT WAS FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT.                    
STILL...EVEN IF THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NORTHEAST              
FLOW...THE AIRMASS IS STILL DRY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIXING INTO               
THE LOW 50S ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. BASICALLY PUT IN A            
20 POP IN THE FAR SE U.P. IN THE EVENT THE LAKE BREEZE CAN POP A                
STORM...SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS AND OUR 12Z LOCAL WRF ARW RUN WITH               
THE KF CONVECTIVE SCHEME. ALSO HAVE 20 POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER IN              
THE AFTERNOON WITH INDICATIONS OF COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR NEARBY FROM              
THE MN SHRTWV AIDING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.                                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.20 OF AN INCH HIGHER TONIGHT              
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FOR SOME OF             
THE CWA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS             
LOOKED GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE. MORE OF A NE WIND IS             
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...EXCLUDING THE LAKE BREEZE AREA ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.                   
THEREFORE...COOLEST READINGS TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR                
WITH READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID TO               
UPPER 70S SINCE 850MB TEMPS AR AROUND 11C.                                      
.LONG TERM (WED NGT THRU TUE)...                                                
ON WED NGT/THU...THE CWA WL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALF BTWN CUTOFF LO                
OVER SE CAN AND SHRTWV DIGGING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS/NAM             
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A SHRTWV ROTATING              
ARND VORTEX IN SE CAN APRCHG THE ERN ZNS AND PULLING THE VORTEX TO              
THE W 12Z-18 THU. EVEN SO...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS DEPICT AN AIRMASS TOO            
DRY EVEN AT ERY TO SUPPORT PCPN (KINX/PWAT AOB 20/0.75 INCH).                   
ARRIVAL OF ANY DPVA/HGT FALLS DOES NOT EVEN COINCIDE WITH PRIME HTG             
TIME OF DAY BEFORE DNVA/HGT RISES COMMENCE THU AFTN AND HUDSON BAY              
HI PRES POKES SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. WL CARRY MORE CLDS OVER            
THE ERN ZNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHRTWV BUT MAINTAIN DRY FCST. MIXING            
TO H725 ON GFS FCST SDNGS FOR THU AFTN YIELDS HI TEMPS ARND 75 AWAY             
FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE MAXIMIZED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP WITH                
DVLPG NE FLOW S OF HUDSON BAY HI. WITH DWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 40             
TO 45 RANGE AWAY FM LK MOISTENING PER FVRD DRIER GFS FCST SDNGS WITH            
HUDSON BAY HI PRES/DRY GROUND...EXPECT MIN RH TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN                
25-30 PCT AND AGGRAVATE RECENT DRYNESS. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS                 
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LGT AT MOST SPOTS WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST.               
TRANQUIL...DRY WX WL CONTINUE THU NGT/FRI WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES               
CENTER BLDG OVHD LATE FRI. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS BLO GUIDANCE             
OVER THE INTERIOR W ON THU NGT AS THESE PLACES WL BE SHELTERED IN               
LGT NE FLOW AND CLOSER TO THE FCST MIN PWAT ARND 0.5 INCH. GFS/NAM              
HINT AT SOME MID CLD OVER THE ERN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WEAK                  
SHRTWV ROTATING ARND PARENT VORTEX IN SE CAN...AND THESE CLDS WL                
LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL APRCH 80 OVER THE             
INTERIOR...WITH DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR WIDE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.               
PLAN ON MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 25-30 PCT RANGE. AS WL BE THE CASE ON               
THU...RELATIVELY LGT WINDS WL MITIGATE INCRSG FIRE WX CONCERNS.                 
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RA CHCS IN THE EXTENDED PD. UPR                 
PATTERN WL FEATURE TROF OVER NE CAN...WITH NW FLOW ALF BTWN THIS                
TROF AND RDG OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING SRN CAN/NRN TIER CONUS AND             
HOLDING OFF ANY SHRTWV/MSTR RETURN FM THE S. SEEMS BEST CHC FOR ANY             
PCPN WOULD BE ON MON WITH HINT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FROPA IN ADVANCE              
OF NEXT HUDSON BAY HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR LKS...ESPECIALLY IF              
THE CNDN MODEL FCST WITH MORE HIER AMPLITUDE TROF DVPS. WL THROW IN             
A 20 POP FOR MON TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. OTRW...THE WEEKEND THRU             
TUE PD WL BE DRY. WITH MORE OF A WLY FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG IN            
THE LOWER LKS...EXPECT AOA NORMAL TEMPS ON SAT INTO MON...THEN                  
COOLER AIR WL ARRIVE ON TUE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FROPA.                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER QUEBEC AND A SECOND OVER                        
MANITOBA...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.            
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
CURRENT FORECAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OR NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU SUN...               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT. HOWEVER...WESTERLY             
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF UPPER             
MI COULD APPROACH 20 KT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
LEVEL TROUGHING IN SE CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SHRTWV              
ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE IN NE ONTARIO...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM            
NE MANITOBA SOUTHWARD INTO WI...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL                   
SASKATCHEWAN. SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SHRTWV OVER NW MN...NOTED BY             
A COMMA IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS             
SEEN EAST OF THIS SHRTWV ACROSS ERN MN...WI...WRN UPPER MI AND THEN             
NW INTO NRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO EXTENDS                
DOWN INTO THE LOW LEVELS...AT LEAST ACROSS MN AND WRN WI WHERE SCT              
-SHRA ARE OCCURRING ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. THE AIRMASS SO FAR HAS            
BEEN TOO DRY IN UPPER MI TO ALLOW FOR ANY -SHRA IN WRN WI TO MOVE               
IN...DESPITE THE RETURNS OFF OUR RADAR. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE             
DEVELOPED OVER THE REST OF UPPER MI IN BETWEEN LAKE BREEZES COMING              
OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...AGAIN BELIEVE THE AIRMASS            
IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FROM THE LAKE                
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE MIXED OUT TO AROUND 50F. 1740Z TAMDAR               
SOUNDING FROM SAW REFLECTS THE DRY AIR TOO...AND USING 77 TEMP OVER             
50 DEWPOINTS RESULTS IN NO CAPE. SOME CUMULUS ARE A BIT TALLER RIGHT            
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLING...ONE SHOWER HAS                 
MANAGED TO DEVELOP NEAR GULLIVER. TO OUR NE...SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW             
DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV               
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
SUBTLE FEATURES DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...               
WITH UPPER RIDGING BASICALLY HOLDING ON FROM NE ONTARIO INTO WRN                
UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z THU. THIS UPPER RIDGE DOES GET UNDERCUT BY THE             
SHRTWV IN MN DROPPING SE...IN ADDITION TO SQUEEZED AS THE SHRTWV IN             
NE ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT.              
THEREFORE...DRY AIR OVER THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO GET RID OF.             
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH DEFORMATION               
AND DPVA FROM THE NW MN SHRTWV SHOULD CREEP A BIT FARTHER INTO UPPER            
MI...MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH ANY                
SHOWERS THAT CAN MOVE IN FROM WRN WI...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE                
PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER WI. ALSO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
PCPN THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI IN THE EVENT                      
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP WHEN THE TWO LAKE BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR               
AND MICHIGAN COME TOGETHER...AND WITH STORM MOTION BEING NORTH TO               
SOUTH. WED AFTERNOON IS A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IT LOOKS             
LIKE A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FORM. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY             
NOT BE TOO STRONG...BUT THE WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE                   
COMPARED TO THE EAST WIND THAT WAS FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT.                    
STILL...EVEN IF THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NORTHEAST              
FLOW...THE AIRMASS IS STILL DRY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIXING INTO               
THE LOW 50S ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. BASICALLY PUT IN A            
20 POP IN THE FAR SE U.P. IN THE EVENT THE LAKE BREEZE CAN POP A                
STORM...SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS AND OUR 12Z LOCAL WRF ARW RUN WITH               
THE KF CONVECTIVE SCHEME. ALSO HAVE 20 POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER IN              
THE AFTERNOON WITH INDICATIONS OF COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR NEARBY FROM              
THE MN SHRTWV AIDING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.                                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.20 OF AN INCH HIGHER TONIGHT              
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FOR SOME OF             
THE CWA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS             
LOOKED GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE. MORE OF A NE WIND IS             
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...EXCLUDING THE LAKE BREEZE AREA ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.                   
THEREFORE...COOLEST READINGS TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR                
WITH READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID TO               
UPPER 70S SINCE 850MB TEMPS AR AROUND 11C.                                      
.LONG TERM (WED NGT THRU TUE)...                                                
ON WED NGT/THU...THE CWA WL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALF BTWN CUTOFF LO                
OVER SE CAN AND SHRTWV DIGGING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS/NAM             
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A SHRTWV ROTATING              
ARND VORTEX IN SE CAN APRCHG THE ERN ZNS AND PULLING THE VORTEX TO              
THE W 12Z-18 THU. EVEN SO...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS DEPICT AN AIRMASS TOO            
DRY EVEN AT ERY TO SUPPORT PCPN (KINX/PWAT AOB 20/0.75 INCH).                   
ARRIVAL OF ANY DPVA/HGT FALLS DOES NOT EVEN COINCIDE WITH PRIME HTG             
TIME OF DAY BEFORE DNVA/HGT RISES COMMENCE THU AFTN AND HUDSON BAY              
HI PRES POKES SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. WL CARRY MORE CLDS OVER            
THE ERN ZNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHRTWV BUT MAINTAIN DRY FCST. MIXING            
TO H725 ON GFS FCST SDNGS FOR THU AFTN YIELDS HI TEMPS ARND 75 AWAY             
FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE MAXIMIZED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP WITH                
DVLPG NE FLOW S OF HUDSON BAY HI. WITH DWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 40             
TO 45 RANGE AWAY FM LK MOISTENING PER FVRD DRIER GFS FCST SDNGS WITH            
HUDSON BAY HI PRES/DRY GROUND...EXPECT MIN RH TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN                
25-30 PCT AND AGGRAVATE RECENT DRYNESS. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS                 
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LGT AT MOST SPOTS WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST.               
TRANQUIL...DRY WX WL CONTINUE THU NGT/FRI WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES               
CENTER BLDG OVHD LATE FRI. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS BLO GUIDANCE             
OVER THE INTERIOR W ON THU NGT AS THESE PLACES WL BE SHELTERED IN               
LGT NE FLOW AND CLOSER TO THE FCST MIN PWAT ARND 0.5 INCH. GFS/NAM              
HINT AT SOME MID CLD OVER THE ERN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WEAK                  
SHRTWV ROTATING ARND PARENT VORTEX IN SE CAN...AND THESE CLDS WL                
LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL APRCH 80 OVER THE             
INTERIOR...WITH DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR WIDE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.               
PLAN ON MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 25-30 PCT RANGE. AS WL BE THE CASE ON               
THU...RELATIVELY LGT WINDS WL MITIGATE INCRSG FIRE WX CONCERNS.                 
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RA CHCS IN THE EXTENDED PD. UPR                 
PATTERN WL FEATURE TROF OVER NE CAN...WITH NW FLOW ALF BTWN THIS                
TROF AND RDG OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING SRN CAN/NRN TIER CONUS AND             
HOLDING OFF ANY SHRTWV/MSTR RETURN FM THE S. SEEMS BEST CHC FOR ANY             
PCPN WOULD BE ON MON WITH HINT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FROPA IN ADVANCE              
OF NEXT HUDSON BAY HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR LKS...ESPECIALLY IF              
THE CNDN MODEL FCST WITH MORE HIER AMPLITUDE TROF DVPS. WL THROW IN             
A 20 POP FOR MON TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. OTRW...THE WEEKEND THRU             
TUE PD WL BE DRY. WITH MORE OF A WLY FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG IN            
THE LOWER LKS...EXPECT AOA NORMAL TEMPS ON SAT INTO MON...THEN                  
COOLER AIR WL ARRIVE ON TUE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FROPA.                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EARLIER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA NEAR KSAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE HAS             
DIMINISHED AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY ON THE WANE...RESULTING              
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF KSAW WEAKENING AS SHOWN ON LATEST                   
WSR-88D DATA. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA FROM THIS                
FORECAST. WITH AREA STUCK UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR                    
CIGS/VIS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OR NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU SUN...               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT. HOWEVER...WESTERLY             
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF UPPER             
MI COULD APPROACH 20 KT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
LEVEL TROUGHING IN SE CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SHRTWV              
ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE IN NE ONTARIO...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM            
NE MANITOBA SOUTHWARD INTO WI...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL                   
SASKATCHEWAN. SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS A SHRTWV OVER NW MN...NOTED BY             
A COMMA IN WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS             
SEEN EAST OF THIS SHRTWV ACROSS ERN MN...WI...WRN UPPER MI AND THEN             
NW INTO NRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO EXTENDS                
DOWN INTO THE LOW LEVELS...AT LEAST ACROS MN AND WRN WI WHERE SCT               
-SHRA ARE OCCURRING ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. THE AIRMASS SO FAR HAS            
BEEN TOO DRY IN UPPER MI TO ALLOW FOR ANY -SHRA IN WRN WI TO MOVE               
IN...DESPITE THE RETURNS OFF OUR RADAR. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE             
DEVELOPED OVER THE REST OF UPPER MI IN BETWEEN LAKE BREEZES COMING              
OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...AGAIN BELIEVE THE AIRMASS            
IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FROM THE LAKE                
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE MIXED OUT TO AROUND 50F. 1740Z TAMDAR               
SOUNDING FROM SAW REFLECTS THE DRY AIR TOO...AND USING 77 TEMP OVER             
50 DEWPOINTS RESULTS IN NO CAPE. SOME CUMULUS ARE A BIT TALLER RIGHT            
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLING...ONE SHOWER HAS                 
MANAGED TO DEVELOP NEAR GULLIVER. TO OUR NE...SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW             
DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV               
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
SUBTLE FEATURES DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...               
WITH UPPER RIDGING BASICALLY HOLDING ON FROM NE ONTARIO INTO WRN                
UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z THU. THIS UPPER RIDGE DOES GET UNDERCUT BY THE             
SHRTWV IN MN DROPPING SE...IN ADDITION TO SQUEEZED AS THE SHRTWV IN             
NE ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT.              
THEREFORE...DRY AIR OVER THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO GET RID OF.             
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH DEFORMATION               
AND DPVA FROM THE NW MN SHRTWV SHOULD CREEP A BIT FARTHER INTO UPPER            
MI...MAINLY ALONG THE WI BORDER. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH ANY                
SHOWERS THAT CAN MOVE IN FROM WRN WI...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE                
PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER WI. ALSO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
PCPN THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MI IN THE EVENT                      
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP WHEN THE TWO LAKE BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR               
AND MICHIGAN COME TOGETHER...AND WITH STORM MOTION BEING NORTH TO               
SOUTH. WED AFTERNOON IS A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IT LOOKS             
LIKE A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FORM. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY             
NOT BE TOO STRONG...BUT THE WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE                   
COMPARED TO THE EAST WIND THAT WAS FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT.                    
STILL...EVEN IF THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NORTHEAST              
FLOW...THE AIRMASS IS STILL DRY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIXING INTO               
THE LOW 50S ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE. BASICALLY PUT IN A            
20 POP IN THE FAR SE U.P. IN THE EVENT THE LAKE BREEZE CAN POP A                
STORM...SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS AND OUR 12Z LOCAL WRF ARW RUN WITH               
THE KF CONVECTIVE SCHEME. ALSO HAVE 20 POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER IN              
THE AFTERNOON WITH INDICATIONS OF COOLER MID-LEVEL AIR NEARBY FROM              
THE MN SHRTWV AIDING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.                                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.20 OF AN INCH HIGHER TONIGHT              
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FOR SOME OF             
THE CWA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS             
LOOKED GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE. MORE OF A NE WIND IS             
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...EXCLUDING THE LAKE BREEZE AREA ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.                   
THEREFORE...COOLEST READINGS TOMORROW WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR                
WITH READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID TO               
UPPER 70S SINCE 850MB TEMPS AR AROUND 11C.                                      
.LONG TERM (WED NGT THRU TUE)...                                                
ON WED NGT/THU...THE CWA WL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALF BTWN CUTOFF LO                
OVER SE CAN AND SHRTWV DIGGING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS/NAM             
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A SHRTWV ROTATING              
ARND VORTEX IN SE CAN APRCHG THE ERN ZNS AND PULLING THE VORTEX TO              
THE W 12Z-18 THU. EVEN SO...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS DEPICT AN AIRMASS TOO            
DRY EVEN AT ERY TO SUPPORT PCPN (KINX/PWAT AOB 20/0.75 INCH).                   
ARRIVAL OF ANY DPVA/HGT FALLS DOES NOT EVEN COINCIDE WITH PRIME HTG             
TIME OF DAY BEFORE DNVA/HGT RISES COMMENCE THU AFTN AND HUDSON BAY              
HI PRES POKES SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. WL CARRY MORE CLDS OVER            
THE ERN ZNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHRTWV BUT MAINTAIN DRY FCST. MIXING            
TO H725 ON GFS FCST SDNGS FOR THU AFTN YIELDS HI TEMPS ARND 75 AWAY             
FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL BE MAXIMIZED DOWNWIND OF LK SUP WITH                
DVLPG NE FLOW S OF HUDSON BAY HI. WITH DWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 40             
TO 45 RANGE AWAY FM LK MOISTENING PER FVRD DRIER GFS FCST SDNGS WITH            
HUDSON BAY HI PRES/DRY GROUND...EXPECT MIN RH TO BOTTOM OUT BTWN                
25-30 PCT AND AGGRAVATE RECENT DRYNESS. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS                 
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LGT AT MOST SPOTS WHERE THE RH WL BE LOWEST.               
TRANQUIL...DRY WX WL CONTINUE THU NGT/FRI WITH HUDSON BAY HI PRES               
CENTER BLDG OVHD LATE FRI. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS BLO GUIDANCE             
OVER THE INTERIOR W ON THU NGT AS THESE PLACES WL BE SHELTERED IN               
LGT NE FLOW AND CLOSER TO THE FCST MIN PWAT ARND 0.5 INCH. GFS/NAM              
HINT AT SOME MID CLD OVER THE ERN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WEAK                  
SHRTWV ROTATING ARND PARENT VORTEX IN SE CAN...AND THESE CLDS WL                
LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL APRCH 80 OVER THE             
INTERIOR...WITH DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR WIDE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.               
PLAN ON MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 25-30 PCT RANGE. AS WL BE THE CASE ON               
THU...RELATIVELY LGT WINDS WL MITIGATE INCRSG FIRE WX CONCERNS.                 
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RA CHCS IN THE EXTENDED PD. UPR                 
PATTERN WL FEATURE TROF OVER NE CAN...WITH NW FLOW ALF BTWN THIS                
TROF AND RDG OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING SRN CAN/NRN TIER CONUS AND             
HOLDING OFF ANY SHRTWV/MSTR RETURN FM THE S. SEEMS BEST CHC FOR ANY             
PCPN WOULD BE ON MON WITH HINT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FROPA IN ADVANCE              
OF NEXT HUDSON BAY HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR LKS...ESPECIALLY IF              
THE CNDN MODEL FCST WITH MORE HIER AMPLITUDE TROF DVPS. WL THROW IN             
A 20 POP FOR MON TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. OTRW...THE WEEKEND THRU             
TUE PD WL BE DRY. WITH MORE OF A WLY FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG IN            
THE LOWER LKS...EXPECT AOA NORMAL TEMPS ON SAT INTO MON...THEN                  
COOLER AIR WL ARRIVE ON TUE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FROPA.                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/LOT/GRB/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS/VIS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS                
FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS DOMINANT. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZES               
CONVERGING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI COULD TRIGGER A SHRA OR TSRA OVER              
SAW LATER THIS AFTN. HAVE CHANGED THE PROB30 GROUP TO A TEMPO AS                
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...                   
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH TO INCLUDE TS OR REDUCED VSBY IN THE TAF              
GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OR NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU SUN...               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT. HOWEVER...WESTERLY             
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF UPPER             
MI COULD APPROACH 20 KT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
137 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING             
OVER SE CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A SHRTWV OF INTEREST IN             
NW QUEBEC...RIDGING FROM IOWA NORTHWARD INTO NE MANITOBA...A SHRTWV             
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND AN UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL ALBERTA.                  
WEATHER OVERALL IS QUIET OVER WI AND MI...WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL                
CUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 1019MB HIGH              
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE                 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 0.75 INCHES AT GRB...WHICH             
IS ABOUT 75 PCT OF NORMAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE            
AREA AND DECENT MIXING...DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO THE            
MID 40S AT LNL AND IMT. LAKE BREEZES ON ALL SHORELINES HAVE KEPT                
DEWPOINTS AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER. TO THE WEST...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN               
PROGRESSING SLOWLY INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN MN. THESE ARE IN             
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN WESTERN              
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING               
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
GFS/NAM/UKMET BASICALLY KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE BLOCKED UP THROUGH                 
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN SE CANADA RELOADS (DUE TO THE SHRTWV             
OVER NW QUEBEC DROPPING INTO NE ONTARIO) AND THE UPPER LOW IN                   
ALBERTA SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. THEREFORE...PROGRESS OF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION EITHER FROM THE WEST OR EAST WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.               
HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN MN HAS BEEN PROGRESSING A BIT            
FASTER THAN MODELS...SUGGESTING FOLLOWING A MODEL THAT BRINGS IT                
EASTWARD QUICKER. THIS HAPPENS TO BE WHAT OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN                 
SUGGESTS. STILL...FOR TONIGHT...THIS ONLY REQUIRED INCREASING POPS              
OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST            
OF IRONWOOD. OTHERWISE...CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS            
EVENING...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF              
MUCH CLOUD COVER OVERALL AND THE DRY AIR PRESENT...THINK TEMPS COULD            
DROP QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED AS            
LOW AS TEMPS DID LAST NIGHT...READINGS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER.                
FOLLOWED 00Z MEX COOP GUIDANCE FOR COLDEST LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD BE             
IN THE UPPER 40S.                                                               
ON TUESDAY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH               
THE DAY AS THE SHRTWV IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH SHOULD BE IN              
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z...PROGRESSES SE INTO WRN WI. THERE IS ANOTHER                 
CONCERN FOR PCPN...HOWEVER. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING             
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...EXTENDING FROM THE SHRTWV IN CENTRAL              
MN EASTWARD TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SE CANADA. LAKE BREEZES               
INTERSECTING THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE OR TRIGGERING                 
MECHANISM. IN FACT...THE GFS...CANADIAN...NAM AND THE UKMET TO SOME             
EXTENT ALL DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE SURFACE TROUGH.                  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE NAM ARE A BIT HIGH (LOW 60S)...BUT EVEN THE            
REGIONAL CANADIAN GENERATES CONVECTION WITH MORE REASONABLE                     
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS                 
APPEAR TO BE COMING FROM THE WARM LAKE MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...HAVE               
WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES              
ARE FAIRLY LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG...AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FAIRLY                 
WEAK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WEATHER. FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE MOSTLY              
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SINCE THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN              
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SEEMED REASONABLE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND             
12C.                                                                            
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                      
SOME LINGERING 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOC WITH SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE            
LOBE ALONG THE WI BDR WILL STILL WARRANT KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR            
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER SW COUNTIES TUE NIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT            
CHC POPS TUE EVENING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REST THE CWA FOR               
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG SFC TROUGH.                                  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY WILL BRING A COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WED. WITH A NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT                  
EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER TEMPS (INLAND HIGHS LOW TO MID 70S) FOR WED             
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.                                                 
FOLLOWED BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THU THROUGH MON FCST                
WHICH INDICATES MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
SPELLING DRY AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS THU INTO MON.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS/VSBY AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH                
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MAY SUPPORT              
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
OTHER THAN A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY            
MORNING...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. THEREFORE              
EXPECT WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...JV                                                                  
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
224 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF RAIN EXITING WC WI THIS EVENING...AND              
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF                 
MN...MAINLY THIS EVENING. ENOUGH SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO               
GENERATE SOME MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG ALONG WEAK SFC BNDRY MOVING INTO               
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR SOME                      
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO THE EVENING...AS SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST           
DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR IN THE FAR WEST DURING THE             
NIGHT...AND WITH LAST NIGHTS RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH             
DEWPOINTS...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN                 
AREAS LATER TONIGHT.                                                            
MODELS SUGGEST WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS CIRCULATION TO MOVE INTO                
WC WI WED MORNING. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY INCREASES SOME              
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON...AND WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG BNDRY...              
HAVE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER....MAINLY                   
OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN AND WC WI.                                                 
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN CANADA                    
NOW...DROPS SOUTH/EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS...AFFECTING MN PROBABLY                 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS OVER THE MAINLY MN               
PORTION OF FCST FOR THURSDAY AS FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION.                  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DETERMINED BY EXTENT OF                  
CLOUDS COVER DURING THE DAY/NIGHT. WILL SEE SOME LOWER 80S IF                   
SUNSHINE IS PREVALENT...OTHERWSIE...70S WILL BE ALL THAT CAN BE                 
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
LONGER RANGE HINGES ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...                
THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FCST. WENT MORE WITH            
THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF THE AREA                
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TRY TO                 
LIFT THE CLOSED LOW EAST/NORTHEAST MON/TUE PERIOD...SO WILL                     
MAINTAIN THE HPC CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE AREA FOR               
POPS/WX DURING THIS PERIOD. FIRST LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF DROPS THE                   
CLOSED CIRCULATION EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TAF CONCERNS THIS ISSUANCE CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TROUGH                
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MN AND WI. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND               
ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN                 
INTO WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER WEST               
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN. THE RUC MODEL LOW LEVEL RELATIVE                      
HUMIDITY PROGS REMAIN SATURATED INTO THIS EVENING FROM KSTC-KMSP-               
KRNH-KEAU. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL CEILING IMPROVEMENTS                
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO                   
SWING ACROSS NORTH/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN                  
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN MN/WI            
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT KRNH AND KEAU THIS                
AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST NEAR KSTC               
AND KMSP.                                                                       
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.                
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG                                   
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT KRNH AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...VFR                      
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH                         
PREDOMINATE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                            
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A                 
SURFACE TROUGH TODAY. PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST CENTRAL               
WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MRNG.                                                    
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL                  
DRYING OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR             
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA.                                                 
TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET             
WEAKENS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL MEANDER OVER             
SOUTHERN CANADA TDA...THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER              
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE WEST AND SOUTH OF             
OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE             
UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF (EUROPEAN MODEL) ARE               
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR                
NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. JUST KEPT A                 
SMALL POP GOING IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.                        
SMALL DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES TODAY WITH PRECIP ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER              
MOISTURE IN PLACE.  MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL BE                  
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 70S.                      
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE THAT               
WAS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY...WILL                 
BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF TO THE WEST.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO               
AMPLIFY BACK OVER THE MIDWEST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TAF CONCERNS THIS ISSUANCE CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TROUGH                
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MN AND WI. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND               
ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN                 
INTO WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER WEST               
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN. THE RUC MODEL LOW LEVEL RELATIVE                      
HUMIDITY PROGS REMAIN SATURATED INTO THIS EVENING FROM KSTC-KMSP-               
KRNH-KEAU. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL CEILING IMPROVEMENTS                
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO                   
SWING ACROSS NORTH/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN                  
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN MN/WI            
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT KRNH AND KEAU THIS                
AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST NEAR KSTC               
AND KMSP.                                                                       
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.                
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG                                   
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT KRNH AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...VFR                      
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH                         
PREDOMINATE LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DE-EMPHASIZED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS                  
ACROSS EASTERN ARROWHEAD. EMPHASIZED ONSHORE FLOW AND ITS IMPACT                
ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN IS BUCKING INTO A SURFACE HIGH OVER               
LAKE SUPERIOR...ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AND A WEAK SURFACE              
RIDGE ALOFT. THE RAIN IS DECREASING IN BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE               
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER OUR AREA. RAIN HAS GOTTEN AS FAR EAST AS                  
SILVER BAY AND ELY...BUT DRYING MAY PREVENT MEASURABLE RAIN FROM                
GETTING ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN END OF THE ARROWHEAD...EITHER                
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. IF THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS UP                      
THERE...IT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY TO                
THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE                   
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER SOME OF NORTHWEST WI...WE WILL BE WATCHING              
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ANY CLEARING WOULD BE ACPYD BY PATCHY FOG                 
ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE                 
FROM HUDSON BAY BUILDING IN...BEGINNING TONIGHT...WE ANCPT AN                   
ONSHORE FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR                    
SHORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND EXTENT DURING THE              
DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO EXIT CWA TO THE EAST...AND IS                  
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS                
SLOWLY AND STEADILY ADVANCING EWRD INTO MN EARLY THIS                           
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT IN NW AND CENTRAL MN.                    
RIDGING OCCURRING DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE ARROWHEAD HINDERING               
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP AND EVEN CLOUDS. TD`S CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE               
30S AT KELO AND KCKC. WITH THAT SAID...THINK THAT MODELS ARE                    
OVERDOING PRECIP IN THIS AREA TODAY...AND HAVE SCALED BACK POPS                 
SIGNIFICANTLY HERE. LATEST RUC MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SEEM TO                
HAVE THE BEST IDEA OF KEEPING MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD DRY TODAY. IN               
ADDITION...MODEL X-SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR               
INTRUSION FROM KDLH AND POINTS NE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.                            
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...                   
WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY                 
FORECAST QUESTIONABLE...AS ECMWF SHOWING LINGERING TROUGHINESS AND              
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT PRECIP CHANCES                 
FOR NOW AS HUDSON BAY HIGH BEGINS TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE NORTHLAND              
ONCE AGAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES ON                    
WEDNESDAY FORECAST.                                                             
LATE WEEK FORECAST FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO DRIFT                 
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES              
ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IN WRN ZONES. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WESTWARD              
AND SOUTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THINKING IS THAT HEAVY RAIN                
CHANCES WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE NORTHLAND.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
SLOW MOVING SFC BDRY WILL SPREAD LOWERING CEILINGS EASTWARD TODAY.              
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING HEIGHTS AS STRONG RIDGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM               
WILL TRY TO ERODE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS INTO ERN CWA. SHOULD SEE                
MVFR SPREAD TO INL/HIB/BRD TERMINALS EARLY MORNING...DLH BY                     
18Z...HYR BY 21Z. AREA OF IFR PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE               
CONVERGENT AREA NEAR SFC BDRY. THIS PRIMARILY AFFECTS BRD BY LATE               
MORNING. SHOULD SEE ONLY SCTD PRECIP TODAY AS SYSTEM WEAKENS.                   
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WIDESPREAD              
BR/FG SHOULD DEVELOP.                                                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  68  52  69  54 /  70  30  10  10                                           
INL  74  49  80  50 /  70  40  10  10                                           
BRD  76  54  81  56 /  60  20  10  10                                           
HYR  77  50  81  48 /  50  40  10  10                                           
ASX  74  52  74  50 /  30  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
EOM/LILES                                                                       
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
627 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                                          
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A                 
SURFACE TROUGH TODAY. PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST CENTRAL               
WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MRNG.                                                    
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL                  
DRYING OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR             
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA.                                                 
TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET             
WEAKENS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL MEANDER OVER             
SOUTHERN CANADA TDA...THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER              
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE WEST AND SOUTH OF             
OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE             
UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF (EUROPEAN MODEL) ARE               
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR                
NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. JUST KEPT A                 
SMALL POP GOING IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.                        
SMALL DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES TODAY WITH PRECIP ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER              
MOISTURE IN PLACE.  MAX TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL BE                  
SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 70S.                      
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE THAT               
WAS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY...WILL                 
BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF TO THE WEST.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO               
AMPLIFY BACK OVER THE MIDWEST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TOUGH FIRST 6 TO 12 HRS OF THE TAF...WITH SCT SHRA AND PATCHES OF               
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESENT. RUC 925MB RH SFCS HAVE A                  
GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THE MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED...SO FOLLOWED THIS               
FOR THE MRNG LO CIGS. IN GNRL...AXN AND STC SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED               
BY THE MVFR CIGS...WHICH SHUD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MRNG. RNH AND                 
MSP COULD SEE MVFR CIGS IF A DECENT ENUF SHWR MOVES OVHD. SHWR                  
ACTIVITY IS SCT ENUF THAT COVERED IT WITH VCSH AND/OR TEMPO                     
GROUPS. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE SW...LIFTING                  
CIGS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT...IF WE CAN GET ENUF SOLAR                    
INSOLATION...THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWR REGENERATION THIS              
AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT RNH AND EAU. MSP IS IFFY ENUF TO COVER IT                  
WITH A VCSH. LO LVL MSTR HANGS AROUND RNH AND EAU THRU THE BULK OF              
THE NGT...SO FOG AND PSBL IFR CIGS LOOK VERY PSBL. MSP AGAIN LOOKS              
ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG/STRATUS RGN...BUT HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY              
WITH A SCT CLD DECK AT IFR HGTS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JVM/KAT                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND EXTENT DURING THE              
DAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO EXIT CWA TO THE EAST...AND IS                  
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS                
SLOWLY AND STEADILY ADVANCING EWRD INTO MN EARLY THIS                           
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT IN NW AND CENTRAL MN.                    
RIDGING OCCURRING DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE ARROWHEAD HINDERING               
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP AND EVEN CLOUDS. TD`S CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE               
30S AT KELO AND KCKC. WITH THAT SAID...THINK THAT MODELS ARE                    
OVERDOING PRECIP IN THIS AREA TODAY...AND HAVE SCALED BACK POPS                 
SIGNIFICANTLY HERE. LATEST RUC MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SEEM TO                
HAVE THE BEST IDEA OF KEEPING MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD DRY TODAY. IN               
ADDITION...MODEL X-SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR               
INTRUSION FROM KDLH AND POINTS NE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.                            
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...                   
WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY                 
FORECAST QUESTIONABLE...AS ECMWF SHOWING LINGERING TROUGHINESS AND              
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT PRECIP CHANCES                 
FOR NOW AS HUDSON BAY HIGH BEGINS TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE NORTHLAND              
ONCE AGAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES ON                    
WEDNESDAY FORECAST.                                                             
LATE WEEK FORECAST FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO DRIFT                 
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES              
ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IN WRN ZONES. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WESTWARD              
AND SOUTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THINKING IS THAT HEAVY RAIN                
CHANCES WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE NORTHLAND.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SLOW MOVING SFC BDRY WILL SPREAD LOWERING CEILINGS EASTWARD TODAY.              
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING HEIGHTS AS STRONG RIDGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM               
WILL TRY TO ERODE PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS INTO ERN CWA. SHOULD SEE                
MVFR SPREAD TO INL/HIB/BRD TERMINALS EARLY MORNING...DLH BY                     
18Z...HYR BY 21Z. AREA OF IFR PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE               
CONVERGENT AREA NEAR SFC BDRY. THIS PRIMARILY AFFECTS BRD BY LATE               
MORNING. SHOULD SEE ONLY SCTD PRECIP TODAY AS SYSTEM WEAKENS.                   
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WIDESPREAD              
BR/FG SHOULD DEVELOP.                                                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  68  52  69  56 /  50  30  10  10                                           
INL  71  49  79  52 /  40  20  10  10                                           
BRD  72  56  81  57 /  40  20  10  10                                           
HYR  73  50  80  51 /  50  40  10  10                                           
ASX  73  52  74  52 /  20  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LONKA/CANNON                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1231 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT.               
LATEST RUC/NAM12 AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP HAVING A HARD                  
TIME PROGRESSING EAST WITH HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE               
EASTER CWA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
ZFP UPDATED FOR TIME REFERENCES. NO CHG TO FCST.                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS IS TRYING TO BUCK AND UPPER               
RIDGE CENTERED OVER DLH...A COLD MARITIME HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND EXCESSIVE DRYING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND ARROWHEAD THAT HAS               
DRIVEN DEW POINTS BELOW 5C ACROSS SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION FROM                
THE TROUGH HAS AGGRESSIVELY PUSHED TO OUR WESTERN BORDER BUT SEEMS              
LIKELY TO HAVE TROUBLE CONTINUING ITS PUSH OR ITS TENDENCY. THE                 
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A FEEDBACK SITUATION WHERE A SMALL AND DEEP                   
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SD AND MOVES UP JUST WEST OF DLH TONIGHT.                
THE GFS IS MORE REASONABLE BY WEAKENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE                  
MANITOBA LAKES...WRAPPING A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT AROUND THE                    
MARINE AIR MASS...AND SENDING MOISTURE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST                   
ALONG THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT IS                    
UNCLEAR TO US WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL ACTUALLY PUSH INTO OUR AREA               
OR MERELY ALLOW ENERGY TO PASS AROUND US...REINFORCING THE                      
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH                  
PASSES...A STRONG HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL AGAIN ESTABLISH STRONG                   
RIDGING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...SPCLY WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...FURTHER              
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW. PRIND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRST                  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.              
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND OUR ANCPTN OF DRIER CONDITIONS THAN ANY               
OF THE GUIDANCE ANCPTS...WE ANCPT WIDE DAY-NIGHT TEMPERATURE                    
VARIATIONS WELL INLAND...WITH DAYS NEAR 25C...AND A BRISK AND                   
CHILLY ONSHORE FLOW ANYWHERE NEAR THAT LAKE...SPCLY ALONG THE                   
NORTH SHORE AND DLH AND THE TWIN PORTS. THE DRY AND COOL AIRMASS                
WILL PROVIDE A TOUCH OF AUTUMN TO INLAND VALLEYS IN THE MORNINGS.               
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY                  
FROM KHIB TO KMZH AND POINTS WEST...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER                 
THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN                   
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE                
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED                 
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE BY 00Z IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND                 
THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...NOT REACHING KHYR UNTIL AFTER                 
12Z TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO               
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL                 
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT                       
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT                  
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND THE BEST SOURCE OF                
LIFT DEPARTS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  68  52  71  56 /  40  30  10  10                                           
INL  75  49  79  52 /  40  30  10  10                                           
BRD  78  56  81  57 /  40  20  10  10                                           
HYR  80  51  81  51 /  50  30  10  10                                           
ASX  75  52  73  52 /  40  30  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
TL/CANNON                                                                       
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1201 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE                  
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AS UPPER LEVEL JET COMES IN FROM THE WEST                 
AND LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. SFC                        
TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPENING...HAS LITTLE TO MOVE IT EASTWARD UP TO                
THIS POINT. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE FROM MEAGER SFC HEATING                
TODAY HAS INHIBITED EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO THIS                     
POINT. RUC MODEL FORECASTS OF 925-700MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROJECTED              
TO INCREASE IN WRN MN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RESPONSIVE                
LLJ SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL /ALREADY 30 KTS ON FSD VAD/ WITH                    
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K AND 310K SFCS BECOMING SATURATED.                
MOST UNSTABLE LIS SHOW A DECREASE IN STABILITY BUT GRADUAL.                     
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. SO MINIMIZED THUNDER               
WORDING IN THE GRIDS. POPS BASICALLY LEFT THE SAME...WITH LIKELY                
TO CATEGORICAL IN FOR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA. CHANCE               
FOR SVR SEEMS MINIMAL. BROOKINGS SD MEASURED 48 KT GUST RECENTLY                
BUT THAT WAS WITH A BETTER STORM STRUCTURE THAN WHAT IS ENTERING                
WEST CTRL MN. ALSO A GREATER INSTABILITY POOL EXISTS FURTHER                    
SW...INCLUDING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...COLD POOL                     
PROPAGATION SHOULD ADVECT THE BRUNT OF THESE STORMS INTO FAR SW                 
MN. SO THE RECENT MEASUREMENT OF A 33 KT GUST AT CANBY IS ON THE                
ORDER OF WHAT WE EXPECT THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN THE SW CWA.                    
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROJECTED TONIGHT POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN               
PLACES OF THE MN CWA DUE TO HIGH PWAT AND STORM PROPAGATION                     
POTENTIALLY OFFERING SOME TRAINING. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS               
EXTREMELY LOW THOUGH GIVEN THE HIGH FFG AND OVERALL ONLY MARGINAL               
CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/                                             
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...THUNDER/RAIN MOVING ACROSS MAINLY MN               
PORTION OF CWA THROUGH 12Z TUE. INITIAL SURGE OF DEEPER                         
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GENERATED BAND OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...AND                
WILL LIKELY SEE THIS LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALL THAT IS                     
ANTICIPATED AS DEEP SHEAR/STRONG INSTABILITY IS LACKING. SURFACE                
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NOW...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO                     
WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH OVER ALBERTA...BECOMES                  
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER EASTERN MT/WY REGION. THIS PROGGED TO               
MOVE INTO WESTERN MN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. EXPECTED AREA OF TSRA               
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WENT HIGHER POPS              
FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME DECENT RAINFALL IS                
LARGER AREA OF RAIN MATERIALIZES OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AS               
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/1.75 INCHES/ MOVES ACROSS.                       
TROUGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK NORTH TO                
SOUTH SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CWA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THERE              
MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO INITIATE                        
CONVECTION AT LEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DEEPER SHEAR MOVES INTO                 
THE WESTERN CWA AS WELL...SO DEPENDING ON HEATING/DEGREE OF                     
DESTABILIZATION...COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS                 
WITH HAIL/WIND. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING/ALONG                
EAST OF THE TROUGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON                        
SUNSHINE...SO WONT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER                    
WESTERN MN...AND COLLABORATION HAS YIELDED A DRY WEDNESDAY                      
FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND FORECAST H85 TEMPERATURES                
PROGGED INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LOW-MID 80S               
FOR HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE REGION.                                              
LONGER RANGE PROBLEM IS DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF AND            
06Z GFS HAVE THIS DEVELOPING WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER...WITH                       
CIRCULATION WAITING FOR ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TO KICK IT            
EAST.  500 HPA HGHTS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FROM BOTH THE 00Z GFS               
AND ECMWF HAVE BULLSEYE 4-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS MOVING ACROSS                   
DAKS/NEB/IA REGION DURING THE PERIOD.  BEST FIT ANALOG OF UPPER AIR             
PATTERN IS MID JULY 1990.  SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING ABOUT            
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/MAINLY 70S/ ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AS SYSTEM                
MOVES THROUGH FRI-SUN PERIOD.  WENT ALONG WITH HIGH CHANCE POP                  
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS LOW DROPS SOUTH...THEN              
RETAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOPEFULLY SYSTEM WILL               
HAVE OCCLUDED ENOUGH TO LIMIT MOISTURE AND WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST              
TO SALVAGE SUNDAY FOR THE WEEKEND FCST. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHANCE               
POPS THEN. WENT DRY FOR MON TO AT LEAST START MENTIONING A DRYING               
TREND LATE IN PERIOD.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
RAIN CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO PROPOGATE EASTWARD FROM WRN MN. AS                 
SFC TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET DO EVOLVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...SCT                    
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS STC AND MSP. THESE                
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND                
ORGANIZED SHEAR. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS NEAR MSP SHOW THE SATURATION                  
LAYER FOR CLOUD BASE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MVFR. HOWEVER...SOON AFTER              
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE...THERE               
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AT MSP. THIS WILL BE AIDED WITH                 
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME FORM OF CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE                
DAY AT AND AROUND ERN MN AND WRN WI TAF SITES DUE TO THE LIGHT                  
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA POSSIBLE                    
DURING THE AFTN AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BUILD                 
ALONG SFC TROUGH. SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE PULSY AND SCT IN COVERAGE                
WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE. TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FADE AS IT WORKS                   
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVE PULLING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT FOR TONIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
950 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF JACKSON              
THIS HOUR. LAST HOUR JAN AND HKS SHOWED 1004MB AND THE PRESSURE IS              
NOW RISING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED              
COLD FRONT WERE NOW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WEST OF INTERSTATE 59.                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DELTA                 
REGION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. APPEARS FRONT AND CONVECTIVE                    
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO CLEAR THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT.            
HAVE CUT POPS OVER THE DELTA AND TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR            
TRENDS. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SITES              
IN THE WEST TO DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MORNING LOWS. AM CONCERNED THAT            
IN THE NORTHEAST TEMPS MAY REMAIN UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST LOWS                  
THOUGH AS AFFECTS OF THE SFC LOW LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE            
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH HAS BEEN                     
CANCELLED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED. /22/                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY...NLY LOW LEVEL               
FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SYSTEM AND THE AIR                
MASS DRIES RAPIDLY FROM THE N. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE                    
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER EXTREME               
SERN ZONES BY NOON. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING TO DROP              
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SERN AREAS...SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MOS. ALSO              
UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. WE WILL             
SEE NOTICEABLE WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SATURATED               
SOILS SHOULD HAMPER AFTERNOON HEATING SLIGHTLY.                                 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER MAY LAST            
UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.                
WITH THE DRIER WEATHER WILL COME HOTTER AFTERNOONS AND HIGH                     
TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. NORTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT WILL SEND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUR WAY THIS              
WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL DIG WITH               
SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF BEFORE REACHING               
THE AREA THUS DELAYING EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES WILL                
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IN ANY CASE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT MORE            
HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IF THE TROUGH             
MANAGES TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. /EC/                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BUT MVFR/IFR                 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CIGS               
MAY DEVELOP FROM THE NW BRIEFLY BUT AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE               
FOR PATCHES OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS               
WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR               
FILTERS IN. /22/                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       69  88  62  92 /  30   6   6   7                                  
MERIDIAN      70  86  61  90 /  60   8   8   8                                  
VICKSBURG     69  89  64  93 /  20   5   5   7                                  
HATTIESBURG   73  88  65  91 /  67  21  11   5                                  
NATCHEZ       71  86  64  92 /  63  10   6   3                                  
GREENVILLE    66  89  62  93 /   8   3   4   6                                  
GREENWOOD     65  89  64  92 /  11   3   5   6                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/19/EC                                                                        
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1154 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008                                                     
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/923 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/                                                    
WATCHING BOWING LINE OF STORMS IN NEBRASKA DROPPING SOUTHEAST. RUC              
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND                    
NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE AREA COVERED              
BY CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE THE ST JOSEPH AND ATCHISON                  
KANSAS AREAS IN CASE THIS LINE CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT DROPS SOUTH            
SOUTHEAST ON THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. LLJ SHOULD BE VEERING AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A SLOWER PROPAGATION                     
SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT COLD POOL EFFECTS FROM THIS COMPLEX              
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THEM MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP. JUST A QUESTION IF            
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH TO SUSTAIN THEM...SO WILL             
ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.                  
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/337 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008/                                                    
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST 3 DAYS OR SO OF THE FORECAST.                
MOISTURE AXIS JUST CLIPS THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA                
THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP              
WITHIN THAT AXIS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE              
IT VERY FAR EAST...WITH RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                                       
EXPECT THIS SAME DRY AIR TO AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT.                    
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND                
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM                  
IMPACTS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY MOVE              
EAST. WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER EXPECT             
AREAL COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR FEEDING INTO IT.           
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH             
OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SURFACE                   
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA             
AT PEAK HEATING. INSTABILITY DUE TO POOLING DEW POINTS AND DAYTIME              
HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.                     
NRR                                                                             
MEDIUM RANGE (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...                                               
A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM            
SOUTHERN CANADA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AS THIS UPPER LOW EDGES                  
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...VARIOUS                
SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY            
AROUND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE TIME             
AND PLACE THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIFFERENTLY FROM ONE              
MODEL TO THE NEXT...AND FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. STILL...THIS            
PATTERN GENERALLY LENDS ITSELF TO A PERIOD OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES            
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                 
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE...WELL                  
BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES                     
GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.                                           
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TIMING IN CONVECTION FROM NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH IT             
SHOULD BE IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE...APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL              
TO MAKE IT THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION              
MAY AID IN PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN               
THE MORNING. BIG QUESTION ON WHETHER THIS WILL WASH OUT AND BETTER              
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON                 
ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP. THINKING THAT WITH POOR LAPSE                 
RATES IN THE AREA...AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE                         
CONVERGENCE...CHANCES OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ARE TOO             
LOW TO WARRANT PUTTING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.                               
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1103 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NEW GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE DROPPED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS THE MAJORITY OF THE                 
CWA HAS CLEARED OUT...AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE                
KEPT CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS                
ACROSS THE AREA SINCE WE HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY               
THOUGHT...HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS A SMIDGEN THRU THE                       
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST OF THE              
AREA TODAY...THEN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WED THRU THE EXTENDED.                
PER THE WSR-88D MOSAIC..THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA                
EXTEND FM WRN IA AND NE KS WITH OTHER ISOLD -SHRA LINGERING IN                  
ERN NEB. THIS LINGERING PRECIP WAS IN AN AREA WHERE THERE WAS A                 
WEAK SFC LOW CIRCULATION...AS THE SFC ANALYSIS REVEALED SOUTH                   
WINDS IN WRN IA...E WNDS AT SUX AND WEST WNDS FET WESTWARD.  THE                
LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO END THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS THE                     
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO MN/IA AND THE WNDSHIFT MOVES THRU                     
SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE RUC AND GFS TEND TO               
HOLD ON TO SOME CHC OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME                      
LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY. DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN SW IA               
AS LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING COULD POPS SOME SHOWERS AS FCST               
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD                  
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPR 80S FOR HIGHS.                          
LEFT TONIGHT DRY. WED AND THUR HAS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY MOVING                 
ACRS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL SETTLE                  
INTO THE PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP                         
CHANCES...BUT COULD SEE PRECIP EACH DAYS WITH COOLING ALOFT AND                 
UVV. LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER/SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION COMPARED TO                 
THE GFS THAT BRINGS PRECIP IN WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT THEN DROPS               
THE PRECIP SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS                
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND STILL ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH IT.                
PROGS SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE                    
EXTENDED.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THROUGH 13/06Z.                                    
SCT SHWRS SHOULD MOVE E OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DISSIPATING            
BY 11Z AT OMA.  CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM W TO E WITH MID CLOUDS                
BREAKING UP BEFORE 15Z.  DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WILL BRING VBL WINDS                
INTO THE NW BY 18Z...BUT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT.  WNDS WILL BECOME LGT            
AND VBL AROUND SUNSET WITH FEW CLDS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KURTZ                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
344 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST OF THE              
AREA TODAY...THEN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WED THRU THE EXTENDED.                
PER THE WSR-88D MOSAIC..THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA                
EXTEND FM WRN IA AND NE KS WITH OTHER ISOLD -SHRA LINGERING IN                  
ERN NEB. THIS LINGERING PRECIP WAS IN AN AREA WHERE THERE WAS A                 
WEAK SFC LOW CIRCULATION...AS THE SFC ANALYSIS REVEALED SOUTH                   
WINDS IN WRN IA...E WNDS AT SUX AND WEST WNDS FET WESTWARD.  THE                
LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO END THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS THE                     
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO MN/IA AND THE WNDSHIFT MOVES THRU                     
SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE RUC AND GFS TEND TO               
HOLD ON TO SOME CHC OF PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME                      
LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY. DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN SW IA               
AS LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING COULD POPS SOME SHOWERS AS FCST               
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD                  
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPR 80S FOR HIGHS.                          
LEFT TONIGHT DRY. WED AND THUR HAS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY MOVING                 
ACRS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL SETTLE                  
INTO THE PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP                         
CHANCES...BUT COULD SEE PRECIP EACH DAYS WITH COOLING ALOFT AND                 
UVV. LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER/SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION COMPARED TO                 
THE GFS THAT BRINGS PRECIP IN WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT THEN DROPS               
THE PRECIP SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS                
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND STILL ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH IT.                
PROGS SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE                    
EXTENDED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THROUGH 13/06Z.                                    
SCT SHWRS SHOULD MOVE E OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS DISSIPATING            
BY 11Z AT OMA.  CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM W TO E WITH MID CLOUDS                
BREAKING UP BEFORE 15Z.  DIFFUSE SFC TROUGH WILL BRING VBL WINDS                
INTO THE NW BY 18Z...BUT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT.  WNDS WILL BECOME LGT            
AND VBL AROUND SUNSET WITH FEW CLDS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/POLLACK                                                               
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY APPARENTLY HAS PUSHED OUT TO PORTIONS OF               
CONTDVD BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY...AND HAVE SEEN AT LEAST SMALL                   
INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS ON SOME OF THE AREA RAWS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY               
SEEMS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST TO              
EAST...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION OR RELATED TO AREA             
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEAST NEW                    
MEXICO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MODELS DON/T REALLY PICK UP ON                        
THIS...EXCEPT COULD MAKE A CASE FOR THE RUC WHICH SUGGESTS SOMETHING            
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL.  DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE DRYING             
NOTED IN THE KABQ SOUNDING YESTERDAY EVENING...SUSPECT THERE MAY BE             
A BIT MORE ACTIVITY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THE GUIDANCE             
POPS WOULD SUGGEST. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS 850-500MB THETA-E AXIS WILL            
REMAIN ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL REGION             
OF THE STATE...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE            
AXIS MAY SHIFT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO A MORE WEST TO EAST                  
ORIENTATION BUT WITH HIGHEST VALUES REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF                   
INTERSTATE 40.                                                                  
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHARPEN AS IT TAKES ON A NORTH TO SOUTH PLACEMENT            
FROM ARIZONA THROUGH WASHINGTON AND IDAHO WHILE AN UPPER LOW DROPS              
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A                   
SURFACE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST ECMWF FORECASTS            
A WET PERIOD FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH                         
SATURDAY...BUT WHAT MODELS DO WITH THE UPPER LOW DURING THE COMING              
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH TIME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE TODAY               
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KCAO TO KLVS...KSAF...KABQ...AND             
KSRR. DRIER AIR WILL CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF             
THIS AREA. MOST ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF BY MID/LATE EVENING. PERIODS            
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS            
THE SOUTH AND EAST.                                                             
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRIER TREND HAS EASED IN OVER AT LEAST THE                  
WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL            
BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL                    
MTNS/GILA REGION ALTHOUGH THE WETTING RAIN WILL NOT BE AS                       
SIGNIFICANT. THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE                    
PRODUCING WETTING RAINS FROM ANY STORMS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE               
FROM THE TEENS IN THE NW PLATEAU TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE TEXAS                 
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES                       
RESPECTIVELY. EXTENDED MODELS INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE..HOWEVER MODELS ARE             
STILL STRUGGLING TO AGREE. OVERALL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE AN             
INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EAST ACROSS THE                
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  95  59  93  60 /   5   5   5  10              
GALLUP..........................  88  54  87  53 /  10  10  10  10              
GRANTS..........................  89  55  88  54 /  10  10  10  10              
GLENWOOD........................  89  60  89  64 /  20  30  20  40              
CHAMA...........................  82  44  83  47 /  20  10  10  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  57  86  54 /  30  20  10  10              
RED RIVER.......................  75  43  76  41 /  20  20  10  20              
TAOS............................  85  51  84  50 /  10  20  10  10              
SANTA FE........................  86  57  88  57 /  20  30  10  10              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  58  90  57 /  20  30  10  10              
ESPANOLA........................  90  56  91  55 /  10  20  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  66  92  67 /  20  30  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  63  93  64 /  20  30  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  62  89  63 /  20  30  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  64  93  65 /  10  30  10  10              
SOCORRO.........................  92  60  91  63 /  10  30  20  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  85  59  85  53 /  20  30  10  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  87  57 /  30  30  20  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  62  90  62 /  30  40  30  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  84  57  82  55 /  30  50  30  30              
RATON...........................  86  52  86  52 /  30  40  20  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  52  83  55 /  30  40  20  10              
ROY.............................  86  57  86  61 /  30  40  20  20              
CLAYTON.........................  86  60  90  64 /  30  30  20  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  89  61  95  61 /  30  30  20  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  65  95  66 /  20  30  20  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  65  92  65 /  20  30  10  10              
CLOVIS..........................  93  65  94  64 /  20  30  10  10              
PORTALES........................  93  65  96  65 /  20  30  10  10              
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  97  69 /  20  30  20  20              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
733 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS NOW AND THEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING             
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE UPPER            
TROUGH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY              
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND LESSEN WITH             
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN                
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.                
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY                    
THURSDAY...THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR                          
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS                   
ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INLAND              
FROM THE LAKES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                          
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF                 
JAMES BAY...ROUGHLY DENOTED BY THE RUC ANALYSIS OF THE -20C                     
TEMPERATURE CONTOUR AT 500MB.  LOOPING THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO             
SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  EXPECT THIS TO                
WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY OVER LAKE HURON AND MI                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING TO DIE OFF FOR A WHILE...BUT THEN SOME NOCTURNAL                    
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE APPROACHES             
WESTERN NY.                                                                     
THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY DURING                 
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MINIMAL SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR PART OF THE DAY                
OVER WESTERN NY WHILE THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASES OVER               
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TOWARD            
THIS REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.  FOR WESTERN NY...EARLIER MODELS HAD              
THE AIRMASS WARMING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE LATEST RUNS               
KEEP THE AIRMASS COOL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE               
ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY.  SO...WITH THE COLD AIRMASS STILL IN             
PLACE...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON                
WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP.                                                          
THE WARMING COMES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER             
LEVEL LOW WEAKENS OPENS UP AS IT HEADS EAST.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE                
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUIET WEATHER             
DAY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
THE GEFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR                         
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY DAY.  THE UNCERTAINTY IS                
MORE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR              
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRIES TO               
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD QUEBEC.  THE FLOW UPSTREAM BY                
THIS TIME SHOULD BE FAIRLY BLOCKED WITH A SLOW EASTWARD                         
PROGRESSION.  THIS MAY FINALLY BE A SIGNAL FOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER            
PATTERN ONCE WE GET RID OF THE LAST UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THE FIRST               
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WOULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY TOWARD DRY                  
WEATHER WITHOUT A PERSISTENT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVERHEAD             
LATER NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN              
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH RESULTED FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND            
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. KBUF AND KTYX RADARS SHOWING             
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL                    
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH LACK OF               
HEATING. AT THIS POINT...SEE LITTLE REASON TO INCLUDE THE MENTION               
OF ANY THUNDER IN THE TAF SITES.                                                
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUGGEST THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE                
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THEREFORE...PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS                   
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE POSSIBLE               
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                                
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO MARINE FLAGS EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF                                                                 
NEAR TERM...LEVAN                                                               
SHORT TERM...ZAFF                                                               
LONG TERM...ZAFF                                                                
AVIATION...LEVAN/TMA                                                            
MARINE...ZAFF                                                                   
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
200 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS             
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.  THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS                  
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH              
MIDNIGHT. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL THEN AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...                  
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.                                        
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SO                   
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ON TAP WITH THE              
HIGHEST PROBS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EAST OF LAKE              
ONTARIO.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY OVER JAMES BAY WITH THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN 80KT             
JET OVER THIS REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO OR            
LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL EVOLVE INTO THE NEXT                 
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FOR THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF               
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER               
RECENT UPPER LEVEL LOWS.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN                
FROM WAYNE COUNTY EAST FOR THIS...AND THEN TRANSITION TO PATCHY FOG             
LATER IN THE NIGHT.                                                             
THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH A               
RELATIVELY STRONG CAP NEAR 700MB AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HANGING OUT NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE                
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.  IN FACT...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF THE             
EASTERN US WILL BE UNDER A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE ATMOSPHERE                 
COOLER THAN NORMAL.  IF THE CAP IS BROKEN...AIR PARCELS WILL BE ABLE            
TO RISE INTO A RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CLOSER TO THE               
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE CAP MAY              
BE BROKEN.                                                                      
A CORE OF COLD AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT ON                    
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE IS NOT IDEAL             
WITHOUT ANY DIURNAL HEATING...AND WILL LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO             
GET SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY                 
DURING THIS TIME AND ONLY NOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG                    
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
ANOTHER PRIMARILY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  THE MAIN CORE OF              
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE PASSING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WITH                   
WARMING ALOFT AND HENCE A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN              
NY.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY                  
EXPECTED.  THEN...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP HIGH PRESSURE IN                   
PLACE...BUT THE GEFS SHOWS A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION WHEN LOOKING AT               
THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH ONE GROUP               
SHOWING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP SHOWS A MUCH             
MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THE DRY SOLUTION WITH             
SUCH VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT.  SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF            
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEGINNING              
ON SUNDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND               
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL                     
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD                  
ACROSS POINTS FROM KROC EASTWARD AFTER 09Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG            
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE VCNTY KIAG...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS              
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.                                                           
THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED               
TO BRING AN GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY...ALONG                
WITH THE RISK OF SOME CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED              
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE RISK OF ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL BE                
HIGHEST FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN                
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.                    
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                   
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO MARINE FLAGS EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF                                                                 
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/TMA                                                           
SHORT TERM...ZAFF                                                               
LONG TERM...ZAFF                                                                
AVIATION...JJR                                                                  
MARINE...ZAFF                                                                   
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL                 
NEW YORK TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT                                 
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN PENNSYLVANIA. ON WEDNESDAY AND                         
THURSDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH                
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE                 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ALONG THE SE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ATTM.                  
UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR INCREASED POPS/QPF/CLOUDS IN THIS AREA.                   
BUFKIT AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING AMPLE LL MOISTURE. SOME LAKE                   
ENHANCEMENT BUT TEMP DIFFERENCES NOT ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE EFFECT.               
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A TAD.                
SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN AS LL MOISTURE MIXES OUT AND DRIER AIR               
MOVES IN. TONIGHTS GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT                
WINDS. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.                                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THROUGH EARLY MORNING...EXPECT A FEW SHRA                 
TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AS TEMPS                
ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OFF OF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE              
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER...AS NVA               
DEVELOPS WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA.                    
FOR THE DAY TODAY...OUR WET WEATHER MAKER OF LATE...A CLOSED LOW                
CURRENTLY SITTING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS                   
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY ACTS AS A KICKER              
AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RISING HEIGHTS AND                       
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT. THIS              
WILL CERTAINLY BRING A DRIER DAY THAN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE                  
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW                   
TODAY...CENTERING IT OVER OUR CWA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR                
WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA DEVELOPING AS THIS WAVE PASSES. THIS                  
DOES NOT SEEM ALL THAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THAT EVENING CANADIAN                  
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE                   
WAVE...EVEN WITH MUCH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS THAN EXPECTED HERE                    
TODAY. SO...HAVE PAINTED A SCHC OF SHRA OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE              
CWA...BUT THESE SHRA SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. IN                              
ADDITION...GIVEN WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESP AROUND THE H5                 
LEVEL...DO NOT SEE ANY THUNDER DEVELOPING.                                      
T850 WILL WARM TO ABOUT +11C TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS             
IN THE MID 70S.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A GOOD BIT OF COOLING.  GIVEN A                
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP TO THE 50-55F                     
RANGE...WITH VALLEY FOG LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                  
INTERESTING WX DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN              
ONTARIO/QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH WHILE A SHORTWAVE               
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SPAWNS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE                
CAROLINA COAST WITH THIS LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW             
WITH SOME WEAK PVA/QVEC CONVERGENCE SKIRTING MY NORTHERN ZONES ON               
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE                
BACKING THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMER H5 AND H7 AIR MOVING OVERHEAD.              
BUFKIT PROFILES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF                   
CAPPING AND SO WHILE SOME SHRA SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET GIVEN THE UPPER             
FORCING /ESP OVER NORTHERN AREAS/...TSRA ARE LOOKING LESS                       
LIKELY...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCHC OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS.  T850              
WARMS ANOTHER DEGREE...TO AROUND +12C...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR                
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S GIVEN A DECENT BIT OF SUNSHINE.                   
SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING            
AND THE COASTAL LOW STAYS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT            
VERY LOW CHC POPS AS THE NAM SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE                
NORTHWEST OF THE NW ATLANTIC LOW...BUT FEEL THIS IS A LOWER                     
PROBABILITY OUTCOME...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM WITH              
LITTLE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.            
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.                           
FOR THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF OUR REGION BEGINS TO GET                  
STRETCHED ZONALLY WITH A SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATING INTO THE UPPER             
GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON. AS WITH THE DAY BEFORE...THERE WILL BE                
SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.             
IN ADDITION...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN COOLING...SO EXPECT SHRA WITH A            
CHANCE FOR A TSRA GIVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY.                            
HOWEVER...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT THE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT.  T850                
AROUND +13C SHOULD ALLOW MANY PLACES TO SEE HIGHS REACH 80F...LIKELY            
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK!                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STRUNG OUT STRIPE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND MAY KEEP A               
FEW SHRA GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS. EXPECT               
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
THIS PERIOD SEES A TRANSITION FROM A MEAN NORTHEASTERN TROF TO A                
BUILDING RIDGE. GFS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK MID ATLANTIC TROF                
SLIDING EAST ON FRIDAY, THAT MAY BRING CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY               
TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. SFC HIGH BUILDING EAST LOOKS               
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS BY                 
SUNDAY NIGHT OHIO VALLEY RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD, WITH NEAR AVERAGE               
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH MOD SFC                    
HEATING TODAY. THESE MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF               
LOCATION NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME                 
HEATING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...VFR THIS EVENING WITH PATCHING FOG DEVELOPING                       
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE IFR OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT AT KELM. SOME OTHER                
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK IN LATE TONIGHT TWD RME AND               
SYR AS ANOTHER TROF WRKS IT/S WAY EAST FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES.                
NAM IS FASTER THAN GFS IN BRINING LOWER CLDS AND CHC FOR SHRA TO                
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY BROUGHT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS              
INTO RME, BUT HELD OFF ELSEWHERE. BEST CHC FOR ANY SHRA LOOKS TO                
BE AFTER 18Z WED.                                                               
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN ARND 10 KTS, BECOME LGT THIS EVENING.                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WEDNESDAY AFTN THRU THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHRA DIMINISH WEDNESDAY                
NGT WITH VFR. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN FOG...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.                 
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR FOG IN THE MORNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA/TAC                                                             
SHORT TERM...JMA                                                                
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...JML                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
614 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WELCOME REPRIEVE TO THE RECENT WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS               
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER                  
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH JUST ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. BY                 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL               
APPROACH THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASING       
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER            
TO SEASONAL NORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...EXPECT A FEW SHRA TO CONTINUE ON THE                    
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AS TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST                     
POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OFF OF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS              
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER...AS NVA DEVELOPS WITH               
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA.                                  
FOR THE DAY TODAY...OUR WET WEATHER MAKER OF LATE...A CLOSED LOW                
CURRENTLY SITTING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS                   
ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY ACTS AS A KICKER              
AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RISING HEIGHTS AND                       
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT. THIS              
WILL CERTAINLY BRING A DRIER DAY THAN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE                  
NAM/GFS/RUC ALL BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW                   
TODAY...CENTERING IT OVER OUR CWA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR                
WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA DEVELOPING AS THIS WAVE PASSES. THIS                  
DOES NOT SEEM ALL THAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THAT EVENING CANADIAN                  
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE                   
WAVE...EVEN WITH MUCH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS THAN EXPECTED HERE                    
TODAY. SO...HAVE PAINTED A SCHC OF SHRA OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE              
CWA...BUT THESE SHRA SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. IN                              
ADDITION...GIVEN WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESP AROUND THE H5                 
LEVEL...DO NOT SEE ANY THUNDER DEVELOPING.                                      
T850 WILL WARM TO ABOUT +11C TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS             
IN THE MID 70S.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A GOOD BIT OF COOLING.  GIVEN A                
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP TO THE 50-55F                     
RANGE...WITH VALLEY FOG LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                  
INTERESTING WX DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN              
ONTARIO/QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH WHILE A SHORTWAVE               
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SPAWNS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE                
CAROLINA COAST WITH THIS LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY                     
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW             
WITH SOME WEAK PVA/QVEC CONVERGENCE SKIRTING MY NORTHERN ZONES ON               
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE                
BACKING THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMER H5 AND H7 AIR MOVING OVERHEAD.              
BUFKIT PROFILES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF                   
CAPPING AND SO WHILE SOME SHRA SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET GIVEN THE UPPER             
FORCING /ESP OVER NORTHERN AREAS/...TSRA ARE LOOKING LESS                       
LIKELY...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCHC OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS.  T850              
WARMS ANOTHER DEGREE...TO AROUND +12C...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR                
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S GIVEN A DECENT BIT OF SUNSHINE.                   
SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING            
AND THE COASTAL LOW STAYS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT            
VERY LOW CHC POPS AS THE NAM SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE                
NORTHWEST OF THE NW ATLANTIC LOW...BUT FEEL THIS IS A LOWER                     
PROBABILITY OUTCOME...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM WITH              
LITTLE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.            
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.                           
FOR THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF OUR REGION BEGINS TO GET                  
STRETCHED ZONALLY WITH A SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATING INTO THE UPPER             
GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON. AS WITH THE DAY BEFORE...THERE WILL BE                
SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.             
IN ADDITION...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN COOLING...SO EXPECT SHRA WITH A            
CHANCE FOR A TSRA GIVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY.                            
HOWEVER...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT THE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT.  T850                
AROUND +13C SHOULD ALLOW MANY PLACES TO SEE HIGHS REACH 80F...LIKELY            
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK!                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STRUNG OUT STRIPE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND MAY KEEP A               
FEW SHRA GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS. EXPECT               
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
THIS PERIOD SEES A TRANSITION FROM A MEAN NORTHEASTERN TROF TO A                
BUILDING RIDGE. LATEST GFS SHOWS A WEAK MIDATLANTIC TROF SLIDING                
EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW                   
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT INTO NY/PA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT OHIO                  
VALLEY RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD, WITH A WARMUP SOON TO FOLLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
PATCHY MVFR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE                      
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH               
RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER, AS WE WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AFTER THE                    
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.                     
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, LIKELY LEADING TO VALLEY FOG TOWARD               
SUNRISE. SOME OF THIS MAY RISE UP TO AFFECT BGM AND ITH.                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. RESTRICTIONS  
EXPECTED IN FOG...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.                                            
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR FOG IN THE MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JMA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JMA                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JMA                                                                
LONG TERM...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1041 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE                       
TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD                      
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS                
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                    
SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH RAIN PERSISTING MUCH OF THE DAY BROUGHT               
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS ERN NC WITH MAX TEMPS MORE THAN 10              
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST AREAS SAW THEIR ACTUAL HIGH IN THE                   
UPPER 70S BETWEEN 2 AND 8 AM...OUTSIDE OF THE 8AM-8PM HIGH TEMPS                
SHOWN IN THE RTP...WHILE LOWER 70S PERSISTED THROUGH MOST OF THE                
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WASN`T THE COOLEST AUGUST 13TH HOWEVER AS                  
1967 SAW MAX TEMPS OF 68 AT GREENVILLE AND KINSTON AND 70 AT NEW                
BERN AND MOREHEAD CITY.                                                         
THE SFC LOW IS PUSHING E OF DIAMOND SHOALS LATE THIS EVENING AND                
PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. AT 10 PM THE                 
HEAVIEST RAIN WAS ROUGHLY FROM OCRACOKE TO ROPER IN CENTRAL                     
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND EXPECT PRECIP TO PUSH E OF THE NRN OBX BY                 
MIDNIGHT WITH A CLEARING TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL THE               
RAIN TODAY...THE GROUND IS VERY MOIST AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE               
REGION ARE NEARLY SATURATED. LITTLE SFC DRYING OVERNIGHT SHOULD                 
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY W OF HIGHWAY              
17 WHERE CLEARING WILL BE THE GREATEST. UPDATED FORECAST TO FOLLOW              
DECREASING POP WITH PCPN PUSHING E OF THE REGION AND TO ADD AREAS               
OF FOG ACROSS WRN SECTIONS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                     
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FROM BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER                
THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. S/W ENERGY WILL DIVE SE                  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY SAT                 
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI                      
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT THEN WILL                
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING                 
FRONT. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SAT WITH BERMUDA RIDGE STRENGTHENING             
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR               
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME              
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 80S             
BEACHES AND OUTER BANKS. ONE KINK IN THE FORECAST WILL BE A TROPICAL            
SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO FLORIDA                  
DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY                  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MAY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER                 
IN SOME FASHION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER ALL-DAY RAIN A GOOD SET-UP FOR             
IFR CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SITES OVERNIGHT. KEWN CLOSER TO COAST AND            
EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP VSBYS AT MVFR. CONDITIONS                  
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY THU MORNING WITH HEATING AND VFR EXPECTED              
REST OF DAY.                                                                    
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SFC LOW BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE E OF HAT AND WILL BE MOVING NE                 
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE WITH WINDS AND ONLY SEEING SOME            
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT                
ALONG WITH CAA SURGE. RUC13 LOOKS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE AND ADJUSTED              
WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED ON 21Z AND 00Z RUNS. SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 5-7 FT            
OVER MOST OF COASTAL WATERS AND WV HGT FCST GENERALL ON TRACK EXCEPT            
INCREASED IT FOR CURRENT 5-6 FT OBSERVED AT 41035 AND 41036.                    
BASED ON ABOVE...DROPPED SCA FOR ALB SOUND BUT KEPT REST OF AREA                
WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON TIMING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-156-           
     158.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...SK                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JW                                                                 
LONG TERM...JW                                                                  
AVIATION...JBM                                                                  
MARINE...JBM                                                                    
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1056 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...APPEARS CLOUD COVER IN THE BDE AREA IS NOT GOING TO               
MAKE MUCH MOVEMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE 700MB TROUGH                   
REMAINING STATIONARY. ALREADY UPDATED FOR ISOLD PRECIP...NOW WILL               
LOWER MAX TEMP AND INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THE EXTREME NE FA. AFTER              
COORD WITH BIS AND ABR...FEEL ISOLD THUNDER THREAT WILL BE MORE                 
TOWARD LATER AFTERNOON WHEN NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...AND WILL UPDATE TO              
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING. THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY                         
TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE DVL BASIN CLOSEST TO SFC                   
TROUGH AND UPPER WAVE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON                                
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...SO WE WON/T                    
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF SET. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE                  
AND NE FA. ACROSS THE SE FA...WEAK WAVE (AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR                 
IMAGERY) COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (AS SEEN WITH RUC 850MB                 
CAPE) CREATING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO                  
MOVE E/SE THROUGH THE MORNING (AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE).                 
ACROSS THE NE FA...700MB TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THIS AREA FROM MAIN                
UPPER LOW TO THE NW IN CANADA. ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION CAUSING                   
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHOWERS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THE ABOVE.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM HAVING A                    
BETTER HANDLE ON QPF FIELDS AND NATIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER LOW. NO MODEL IS RESOLVING SFC DEWPOINTS WELL                         
THOUGH...AND ANTICIPATED INCREASE TODAY/THU FROM                                
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET)...SO WILL NEED TO MODIFY SOUNDINGS AND                  
RESULTANT INSTABILITY FIELDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                            
FOR TODAY...OUR LOCAL CANADIAN ET MODEL INDICATES THAT DEWPOINTS                
WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEY. THIS COUPLED WITH                  
INCREASING LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH AND SFC CAPES TO AROUND                 
1000 J/KG SHOULD MEAN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN              
ALL AREAS...SO WILL MENTION. SHEAR FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK                       
THOUGH...UNDER 30KT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.                         
TONIGHT-THU...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS               
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH                
POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. THE BEST FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED                      
CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE                          
VALLEY...AND HAVE HIT POPS HARDEST HERE. WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION               
AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.3...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO                   
POSSIBLE. SHEAR AGAIN WILL BE VERY WEAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE              
TYPE SEVERE EVENTS AT MOST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THU THAN                 
TODAY WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.                       
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THU NIGHT AS LOW PULLS SW OF THE               
REGION.                                                                         
FOR FRI...THE COLUMN WILL DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN.                   
THEREFORE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.                   
ON SAT-TUE...A WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP WITH 925-850MB TEMPS                
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A FAVORABLE WESTERLY SFC FLOW IS ALSO                
EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME WITH A               
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AND TEMPS LIKELY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
911 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9AM. PATCHY               
DENSE FOG DOES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...BUT OBSERVATION              
SITES WITH DENSE FOG ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. WITH THE                       
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NO LONGER AN ISSUE THE ADVISORY                 
DID NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ALSO...SOLAR SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE              
THE REMAINING FOG.                                                              
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE AND NE FA.                    
ACROSS THE SE FA...WEAK WAVE (AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)                   
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY (AS SEEN WITH RUC 850MB CAPE)                    
CREATING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE              
THROUGH THE MORNING (AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE). ACROSS THE                
NE FA...700MB TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THIS AREA FROM MAIN UPPER LOW TO              
THE NW IN CANADA. ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION CAUSING CLOUD COVER AND                
WEAK SHOWERS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE.                    
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY...AND UNLESS                      
ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS WILL BE THE ONLY MORNING                     
UPDATE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON                                
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...SO WE WON/T                    
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF SET.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM HAVING A                    
BETTER HANDLE ON QPF FIELDS AND NATIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE TRACK OF               
THE UPPER LOW. NO MODEL IS RESOLVING SFC DEWPOINTS WELL                         
THOUGH...AND ANTICIPATED INCREASE TODAY/THU FROM                                
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET)...SO WILL NEED TO MODIFY SOUNDINGS AND                  
RESULTANT INSTABILITY FIELDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                            
FOR TODAY...OUR LOCAL CANADIAN ET MODEL INDICATES THAT DEWPOINTS                
WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE VALLEY. THIS COUPLED WITH                  
INCREASING LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH AND SFC CAPES TO AROUND                 
1000 J/KG SHOULD MEAN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER IN              
ALL AREAS...SO WILL MENTION. SHEAR FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK                       
THOUGH...UNDER 30KT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.                         
TONIGHT-THU...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS               
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH                
POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. THE BEST FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED                      
CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE                          
VALLEY...AND HAVE HIT POPS HARDEST HERE. WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION               
AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.3...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO                   
POSSIBLE. SHEAR AGAIN WILL BE VERY WEAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PULSE              
TYPE SEVERE EVENTS AT MOST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THU THAN                 
TODAY WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.                       
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THU NIGHT AS LOW PULLS SW OF THE               
REGION.                                                                         
FOR FRI...THE COLUMN WILL DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN.                   
THEREFORE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.                   
ON SAT-TUE...A WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP WITH 925-850MB TEMPS                
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A FAVORABLE WESTERLY SFC FLOW IS ALSO                
EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME WITH A               
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED AND TEMPS LIKELY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG/DK                                                                           
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
808 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH            
FRIDAY....BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND                     
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUC MODEL AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL               
NAM-WRF FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.                                                 
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED NEAR NE INDIANA THIS AFTN WILL                 
DRIFT ESE ACRS NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST               
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LVL                  
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA               
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...PCPN SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE                
AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. SKY CONDITION OVERNIGHT WILL BE TOUGH                
TO PINPOINT ONCE AGAIN AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY GO MOSTLY              
CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM                
THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV APCHES THE REGION. LOWS WILL              
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                     
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WERE SIMILAR IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE SHORT              
TERM FORECAST. THESE FORECASTS WILL MOSTLY ACCEPTED AND A BLEND OF              
THE MODELS WERE USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.                                   
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SW QUEBEC THIS AFTN WILL                   
PIVOT SLOWLY SWD THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...THEN IT WILL MOVE SE TOWARD               
THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. EMBEDDED S/WVS ROTATING                 
AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
GOING...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE SUCH               
S/WV...OVER SRN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DIVE SE AND MOVE                
ACRS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AFTN. WEAK LOW LVL FORCING IN THE                   
FORM OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/SFC TROF WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE               
COMBINATION OF THE UPR LVL S/WV AND WEAK LOW LVL FORCING IN THE                 
PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 AND 40 POPS ACROSS THE REGION              
THURSDAY AFTN...AND WILL USE AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. WILL NOT GO                
ANY HIGHER THAN THIS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE LOW LVL FORCING IS                
VERY WEAK.                                                                      
THE UPR LVL S/WV WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING.                 
A TANDEM OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT ACRS THE REGION                    
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE LACK OF LOW LVL                 
FORCING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY CARRY SMALL CHANCE                   
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.                              
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO               
THE REGION FROM THE NW...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.                 
HAVE BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET VALUES FOR FORECAST                  
HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER              
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
MODELS HAVE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SPRAWLING SFC HI             
PRES ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND            
AS REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING UPR TROF OVER ERN            
CANADA...AND EVEN SLOWER EVOLVING UPR LO CUTOFF FROM MEAN FLOW AND              
SETTLING IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG                
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH SFC HI WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE             
INTO MSTLY CLR SKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH LIGHT NE FLO...HAVE                    
UNDERCUT MOS GUID AGAIN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE L80S.                       
SOME DIFFERENCES THEN DVLP WRT MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF UPR LO OVER              
THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. IT IS BECMG                        
INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAY IN FACT NEVER GET TO THE            
OH VLY...AND REMAIN IN THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE BECMG PICKED UP BY               
THE DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF              
CONTINUES TO INDCG REX BLOCK LIKE PATTERN DVLPG WITH UPR TROF                   
HOLDING ACRS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPR LO STALLING IN THE CNTRL                
PLAINS. WRN ATLC UPR RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED NORTH INTO REGION BY                   
MIDWEEK WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS AN OVERALL            
DRIER AND LESS STORMY SOLN FOR OH VLY. OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON              
OTHER HAND ARE LESS DRAMATIC WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES...NAMELY THE            
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE RIDGING DVLPG INTO OH VLY BY MIDWEEK. THIS              
CONSENSUS SOLN IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF MAINTAINING ENHANCED SRLY FLO              
FROM THE GULF BTWN THE UPR LO AND THE RIDGE...ALLOWING AN                       
INCREASINGLY MOIST HUMID AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION DURING FIRST              
HALF OF THE WEEK. PREFER MORE UNSETTLED OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLN FOR            
NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDCG MODEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES                  
MON-WED.  HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FOCUS BEST PCPN                   
CHANCES ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU REGION.                          
TEMPS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE                
EXTENDED. MEX GUID CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH AFTN HIGHS.                    
UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE              
L80S THRU TUES...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE U70S MON/TUES IF MORE                
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS REALIZED.  WILL ALLOW FOR WARMEST TEMPS WED            
AS WARM FRONT PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF REGION OVER GRT LKS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
MIX OF CLOUDS IN AREA...WITH SOUTHERN TAF SITES ONLY SCT HIGH                   
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND BKN MID DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS UPR                   
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SKIRTS TO THE NORTH. VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH                
THE FCST PERIOD...THOUGH KILN/KLCK MAY APPROACH MVFR VSBYS IN THE               
10-12Z TIMEFRAME AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED                 
THE MENTION OF CD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH PUSHED IT BACK A              
BIT AS SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED UNTIL INCREASE MOISTURE COINCIDES                 
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME. KDAY/KCMH/KLCK                 
HAVE VCSH AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY THESE LOCATIONS CLOSER               
TO THE BOUNDARY. SHRA SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING A              
DROP TO MVFR CIGS NOR VSBYS IN SHRA OR ISOLD TSTMS.                             
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...JDR                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
148 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF                
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY                 
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                    
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE                     
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THE LATEST H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN CANADA               
WITH A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A                 
BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ANOTHER DEEPER CLOSED           
LOW OVER CNTRL CANADA. LOCALLY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS OVER SWRN                 
MICHIGAN WITH THE CWA UNDER MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW THAN THE                    
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINATE PATTERN THIS                  
MONTH.                                                                          
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE                      
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE OHIO                    
VALLEY. THE NRN FRINGES OF AN INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW CURRENTLY                
OVER GA EXTEND INTO NE KY. TO THE NW...SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE                    
SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING SE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.                    
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TO THE NW WILL MOVE INTO NRN                    
OHIO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDUCED BY AFTN HEATING                   
ALONG WITH IT. A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN THIS AFTN. LITTLE                 
CHANGE IN POPS GRIDS AS RUC AND GFS DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS              
INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK                    
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY DRY SFC CONDITIONS...ONLY THE                        
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED CONVECTION SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.                
HIGH TEMPS INCREASED 2 DEGREES ACROSS CWA...AS LATEST TRENDS AND                
CLEARING WEST OF THE CWA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS WARMING                    
ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL                   
DISAPPEAR WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS              
SHOWN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY BY THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF. THIS                    
WARRANTS AN INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT               
WIND FIELDS AND LACK OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD               
SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY THOUGH               
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL DIMINISH. DO NOT FORESEE A GREAT DEAL               
OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IN WEAK ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGHS WILL                 
STAY IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS AROUND 60...WHICH WILL BE A BIT               
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN                          
POSITIONING FRNTL BNDRY FURTHER SOUTH ACRS TN VLY OVER THE WEEKEND              
WITH SFC HI PRES KEEPING MAINLY DRY WX NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                 
12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO OFFER A PLETHORA OF SOLNS WRT              
FRNTL BNDRY LOCATION SAT/SUN...BUT 12Z OP GFS HAS SWUNG AROUND TO               
THE DRIER SOLN BEING SUGGESTED BY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF                
AND THE CANADIAN. MODELS HAVE ALSO BETTER ALIGNED WRT UPR LO                    
DIVING SOUTH THRU THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ON BACK SIDE OF                  
MEAN ERN CONUS TROF. TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER              
EJECTION OF THE UPR LO ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI                
VLY. THE SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPR LO IS ALLOWING FOR              
A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WRN ATLC UPR RIDGE BACK INTO THE SE                 
CONUS BY ERLY NEXT WEEK. SRLY FLO DVLPG BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES                 
WILL FUNNEL MUCH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OH VLY BEGINNING                 
SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                      
COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR LO MOVING INTO MID                         
MISSISSIPPI VLY WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MON/TUES              
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.                                                          
TEMPS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE                
EXTENDED. FELT MEX GUID WAS TOO WARM WITH AFTN HIGHS...PARTICULARLY             
FOR SUN-TUES TIME FRAME. UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY ROUGHLY FIVE DEG THRU           
THIS PERIOD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE L80S.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL                       
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND PASSES NORTH OF THE TAF                  
SITES THIS EVENING. BKN MID-LEVEL CU WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH                
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. TEMPO GROUPS              
AT ILN AND LCK DURING 10-12Z FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG WITH INCREASED DEW              
POINTS OVERNIGHT AND NEAR CALM WINDS EXPECTED. CB GROUPS ADDED                  
AFTER 12Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CVG AND LUK WITH AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE              
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION.                                                
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/WOODRUM                                                     
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM                                                             
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO                                                           
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...WOODRUM                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
513 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND                
WILL LIKELY REACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC HINTS              
AT THIS...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS AND ISSUE NEW              
SET OF ZONES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT LAST              
THE MORNING.                                                                    
ALSO WILL UPDATE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO DROP SOME OF THE WESTERN              
COUNTIES. /02                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TIMING OF CURRENT RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS PROBLEMATIC                 
THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE MADE THE EFFORT. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE                  
THROUGH THE FSM AREA AROUND 7 AM AND HIGH PROBABILITY IT WILL LEAVE             
THE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE BEFORE NOON.                             
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES WELL THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY...AND SHOULD              
LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISSUE IS A POSSIBLE              
MCS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLIDING DOWN THROUGH KANSAS INTO               
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFW HAS                 
THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST...BUT NAM AND ECMWF AGREE IT WILL AFFECT                
NORTHEAST OK. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS FOR THAT CONTINGENCY.               
MORE IMPORTANT SYSTEM COMES OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DROPS SOUTH              
INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFW AND ECMWS                
DEVELOP THIS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE                 
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...BUT LIKELY                    
COOLER THAN NORMAL. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND POPS FOR THIS.                      
WENT COOLER THAN MAV MOS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE THE AMOUNT OF              
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN. EXPECT THE MOS WILL USE CLIMATOLOGY FOR SOIL              
TEMPS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL NOT ACCOUNT FOR                       
EVAPORATION. ALSO...MOS HAS HAD A COLD BIAS AT NIGHT...PROBABLY                 
BECAUSE IT THINKS THE GROUND SHOULD BE DRY. THAT NOT THE                        
CASE...PLUS TRANSPIRATION FROM PLANT AT NIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN                
RAISING THE DEW POINTS. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN AND LOWS UP               
A LITTLE. ALSO...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD               
LEAD TO POSSIBILITY OF RADIATION FOG. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED IT FOR                
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   86  66  92  70 /  20  10   0  20                                          
FSM   85  64  91  69 /  30  10   0  10                                          
MLC   85  65  92  67 /  20  10   0  10                                          
BVO   86  61  91  63 /  20   0   0  20                                          
FYV   81  60  87  60 /  20  10   0  10                                          
BYV   82  62  86  64 /  30  10   0  10                                          
MKO   84  65  90  66 /  20  10   0  10                                          
MIO   86  64  91  66 /  20  10  10  20                                          
F10   85  65  90  67 /  20  10   0  10                                          
HHW   87  65  92  70 /  30  10   0  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ070-OKZ072-             
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.                                                      
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...17                                                                 
LONG TERM....02                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER                  
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEAST                 
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH FLOW REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA. A               
VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS            
ONE NOW SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.              
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP AS THIS WAVE                      
PROGRESSES THROUGH FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CENTRAL            
SOUTH DAKOTA. PRIMARY FOCUS ON TODAYS PACKAGE WAS ON PROGRESSION OF             
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH SOME PROBLEMS                   
OBTAINING MODEL DATA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO NEW AWIPS BUILD...HAVE               
NOT MADE TOO MANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                                
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION            
TO CONTINUE AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS. THE                  
GREATEST HAIL THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE              
RUC PLACES THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. INTO NORTHEAST                             
WYOMING...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S...SO GUSTY WIND NEAR              
THE STORMS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN VERY              
SLOW MOVING WILL START ITS SOUTHERN DIVE LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE               
CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.                                        
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH               
DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING IN THE EVENING. THIS            
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE                    
DAY...BECOMING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. 18Z NAM DATA CONTINUES TO            
BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH WAS ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE                
DECENTLY WITH THE GFS. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASE IN               
POPS.                                                                           
FOR FRIDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS              
COLORADO BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.               
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH            
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW PROGRESSES.                                                 
EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY            
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. GENERALLY...THE               
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER            
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW HAVE THE                
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THUS                
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. NORTHERN ZONES TO            
SEE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FURTHER SOUTH             
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.            
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW IN               
CANADA SINKS SOUTH. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH THE               
STRONGEST STORMS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
109 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL              
PARTS OF THE CWA. INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON AS PER RADAR TRENDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WEST               
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES FROM THE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST. THIS               
OUTFLOW MAY BECOME A PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS           
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL LOOK TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS FOR ADDITIONAL            
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
TSTMS SEEN ON KAMA 88D E OF AMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER FROM            
TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES SEWD              
THRU ERN TX PNHDL.  OUTFLOW BNDRY SEEN ON RADAR MAY REACH AMA EARLY             
THIS AFTN...PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO MORE ELY.  BELIEVE THAT TSTMS             
WILL DELAY IMPACTING TAF SITES TIL THIS EVE...WHEN NEXT SHORTWAVE               
TROF DROPS SEWD INTO FCST AREA.  STILL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO             
MOVE TOWARD DHT AND AMA...WITH CHANCES FOR TSTMS CONTINUING PAST 09Z            
THU.  EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN TSTMS...VFR FCST CONTINUES NEXT            
24 HOURS.                                                                       
COCKRELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
12 UTC TAFS...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH ONGOING                 
CONVECTION AND THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE            
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.                                                             
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS NOTED PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY           
AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES EARLY             
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS               
EAST OF THE TERMINALS ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP AT AMARILLO             
THROUGH 14Z FOR STORMS HEADING TOWARD THE TERMINAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW        
CLEARING TAKING PLACE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. CAN SEE           
SOME THINNING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK...ESPECIALLY AT GUY. HOWEVER                
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER            
UPPER DISTURBANCE HEADS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES ON NORTHWEST FLOW                 
ALOFT. EXPECT STORMS TO GENERATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERED               
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A PROB GROUP OUT TO 03Z AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.           
STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THIS              
PERIOD HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO JUST INSERTED CB REMARKS FOR NOW.           
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPON FURTHER REVIEW...WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT              
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG           
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEATHER GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WERE          
UPDATED TO MATCH LATEST THINKING.                                               
NUNEZ                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE             
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES DOWN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION               
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE           
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE           
LOCATED NEAR THE UT AND CO BORDER AT THIS TIME...TRACKING TOWARDS THE           
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SHOULD TAP INTO THE MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY              
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF              
THE PANHANDLES.                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WHEN IT ARRIVES            
THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A                  
RESULT.                                                                         
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING BY THE WEEKEND WHEN A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES              
WILL REMAIN GOOD WHILE THE PANHANDLES REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE                  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS EARLY. BY MONDAY HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF           
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. THIS                 
COURSE WILL CREATE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF              
THE PANHANDLES...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE            
UPPER LOW EDGES EAST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM               
WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE EAST MAY BE FAVORED AT THE END OF THE                   
EXTENDED FORECAST.                                                              
NUNEZ                                                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                      
NUNEZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1245 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TSTMS SEEN ON KAMA 88D E OF AMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER FROM            
TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES SEWD              
THRU ERN TX PNHDL.  OUTFLOW BNDRY SEEN ON RADAR MAY REACH AMA EARLY             
THIS AFTN...PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO MORE ELY.  BELIEVE THAT TSTMS             
WILL DELAY IMPACTING TAF SITES TIL THIS EVE...WHEN NEXT SHORTWAVE               
TROF DROPS SEWD INTO FCST AREA.  STILL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO             
MOVE TOWARD DHT AND AMA...WITH CHANCES FOR TSTMS CONTINUING PAST 09Z            
THU.  EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN TSTMS...VFR FCST CONTINUES NEXT            
24 HOURS.                                                                       
COCKRELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
12 UTC TAFS...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH ONGOING                 
CONVECTION AND THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE            
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.                                                             
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS NOTED PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY           
AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES EARLY             
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS               
EAST OF THE TERMINALS ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP AT AMARILLO             
THROUGH 14Z FOR STORMS HEADING TOWARD THE TERMINAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW        
CLEARING TAKING PLACE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. CAN SEE           
SOME THINNING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK...ESPECIALLY AT GUY. HOWEVER                
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER            
UPPER DISTURBANCE HEADS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES ON NORTHWEST FLOW                 
ALOFT. EXPECT STORMS TO GENERATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERED               
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A PROB GROUP OUT TO 03Z AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.           
STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THIS              
PERIOD HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO JUST INSERTED CB REMARKS FOR NOW.           
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPON FURTHER REVIEW...WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT              
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG           
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEATHER GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WERE          
UPDATED TO MATCH LATEST THINKING.                                               
NUNEZ                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE             
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES DOWN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION               
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE           
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE           
LOCATED NEAR THE UT AND CO BORDER AT THIS TIME...TRACKING TOWARDS THE           
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SHOULD TAP INTO THE MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY              
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF              
THE PANHANDLES.                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WHEN IT ARRIVES            
THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A                  
RESULT.                                                                         
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING BY THE WEEKEND WHEN A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES              
WILL REMAIN GOOD WHILE THE PANHANDLES REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE                  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS EARLY. BY MONDAY HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF           
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. THIS                 
COURSE WILL CREATE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF              
THE PANHANDLES...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE            
UPPER LOW EDGES EAST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM               
WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE EAST MAY BE FAVORED AT THE END OF THE                   
EXTENDED FORECAST.                                                              
NUNEZ                                                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                      
NUNEZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/15                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1238 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM                               
LAREDO-ALICE-REFUGIO IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEET              
UP WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI FOR                   
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR                       
CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR CIGS WILL BE                 
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL                  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER 03Z, HOWEVER PATCHY                      
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM                 
ALICE TO VICTORIA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                        
DISCUSSION...THOUGH NOT SHOWN WELL IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, A                   
WEAK ELONGATED BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KCRP                
DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THIS BOUNDARY IS STRUNG ROUGHLY ALONG A                     
ZAPATA-CORPUS CHRISTI-REFUGIO LINE AND APPEARS TO SLOWLY BE                     
SAGGING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING                 
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT                   
COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. BOUNDARY INTERACTION SHOULD               
BE BEST OVER THE COASTAL BEND NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE 12Z              
CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND                 
2.35 INCHES WITH SOME COOLING SHOWN IN THE 900-750 MILLIBAR LAYER               
SINCE THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. MUCH HIGHER PWATS AND THE                       
IDENTIFIED COOLING SHOULD ALSO HELP TO GET CONVECTION GOING.                    
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR TODAY HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF                     
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THIS LOOKS GOOD SO WILL              
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS AT THIS TIME.                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                             
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY                     
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND HAS TRIGGERED SOME                     
ACTIVITY ALREADY THIS MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND                 
THE SEABREEZE COMES INTO PLAY...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE                
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS                
THE EASTERN CWA AFFECTING KALI...KCRP AND KVCT. VFR CONDITIONS                  
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY                    
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL                  
PLAINS. AS PER RADAR/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS...AN OLD BOUNDARY IS                
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND IS PROVIDING ENOUGH               
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN A REGION WHERE THE                       
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUE DURING THE SHORT               
TERM WILL BE THE POP FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP             
AREAWIDE...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE TOO WET SO CONFIDENCE          
IN PRECIP IS DIMINISHED. ALSO AM EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO                
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS                
COULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING COMING IN WITH              
A 2.20 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE PWAT VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.                   
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT               
TO POPS AND AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (AT BEST)                   
SEABREEZE CONVECTION TODAY. BY THURSDAY...AM ONLY EXPECTING                     
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION AS MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO                 
DECREASE SLIGHTLY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
MARINE...SEAS FELL BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND BOTH                     
WINDS/SEA WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.               
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM              
WL REMAIN WHAT TO DO WITH POPS THROUGH THE PD.  THE OVERALL                     
ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE MODELS REMAIN A BIT ON THE MOIST SIDE AS SEEN            
IN THE INITIALIZATION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT WARM TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN              
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE OVERALL LACK OF FOCUS OF                      
CONVECTION (OTHER THAN THE SEABREEZE AND A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW)...BLV              
IT WL BE BEST TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHC AT            
THIS TIME.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND POOLING OF MOISTURE WL REMAIN TO              
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PD AND SO THIS WL ALSO PLAY IN THE                        
CONSERVATIVE POPS AS WELL.  TEMPS WL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV                 
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  94  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          74  99  77  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            79 102  81 103  80  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             76  99  77  98  77  /  10  20  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          80  93  82  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           76 101  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        77  96  78  96  77  /  10  20  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  81  90  81  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION                                                    
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1024 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...THOUGH NOT SHOWN WELL IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, A                  
WEAK ELONGATED BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KCRP                
DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THIS BOUNDARY IS STRUNG ROUGHLY ALONG A                     
ZAPATA-CORPUS CHRISTI-REFUGIO LINE AND APPEARS TO SLOWLY BE                     
SAGGING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING                 
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT                   
COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. BOUNDARY INTERACTION SHOULD               
BE BEST OVER THE COASTAL BEND NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE 12Z              
CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND                 
2.35 INCHES WITH SOME COOLING SHOWN IN THE 900-750 MILLIBAR LAYER               
SINCE THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. MUCH HIGHER PWATS AND THE                       
IDENTIFIED COOLING SHOULD ALSO HELP TO GET CONVECTION GOING.                    
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR TODAY HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF                     
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THIS LOOKS GOOD SO WILL              
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS AT THIS TIME.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                             
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY                     
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND HAS TRIGGERED SOME                     
ACTIVITY ALREADY THIS MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND                 
THE SEABREEZE COMES INTO PLAY...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE                
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS                
THE EASTERN CWA AFFECTING KALI...KCRP AND KVCT. VFR CONDITIONS                  
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY                    
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL                  
PLAINS. AS PER RADAR/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS...AN OLD BOUNDARY IS                
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND IS PROVIDING ENOUGH               
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN A REGION WHERE THE                       
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUE DURING THE SHORT               
TERM WILL BE THE POP FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP             
AREAWIDE...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE TOO WET SO CONFIDENCE          
IN PRECIP IS DIMINISHED. ALSO AM EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO                
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS                
COULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING COMING IN WITH              
A 2.20 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE PWAT VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.                   
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT               
TO POPS AND AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (AT BEST)                   
SEABREEZE CONVECTION TODAY. BY THURSDAY...AM ONLY EXPECTING                     
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION AS MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO                 
DECREASE SLIGHTLY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
MARINE...SEAS FELL BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND BOTH                     
WINDS/SEA WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.               
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM              
WL REMAIN WHAT TO DO WITH POPS THROUGH THE PD.  THE OVERALL                     
ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE MODELS REMAIN A BIT ON THE MOIST SIDE AS SEEN            
IN THE INITIALIZATION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT WARM TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN              
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE OVERALL LACK OF FOCUS OF                      
CONVECTION (OTHER THAN THE SEABREEZE AND A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW)...BLV              
IT WL BE BEST TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHC AT            
THIS TIME.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND POOLING OF MOISTURE WL REMAIN TO              
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PD AND SO THIS WL ALSO PLAY IN THE                        
CONSERVATIVE POPS AS WELL.  TEMPS WL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV                 
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  76  94  79  93  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
VICTORIA          97  74  99  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
LAREDO           101  79 102  81 103  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             99  76  99  77  98  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          91  80  93  82  91  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        97  77  96  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  92  81  90  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION                                                    
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
650 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12 UTC TAFS...MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH ONGOING                 
CONVECTION AND THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE            
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.                                                             
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS NOTED PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY           
AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES EARLY             
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE            
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS               
EAST OF THE TERMINALS ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP AT AMARILLO             
THROUGH 14Z FOR STORMS HEADING TOWARD THE TERMINAL. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW        
CLEARING TAKING PLACE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. CAN SEE           
SOME THINNING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK...ESPECIALLY AT GUY. HOWEVER                
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER            
UPPER DISTURBANCE HEADS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES ON NORTHWEST FLOW                 
ALOFT. EXPECT STORMS TO GENERATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERED               
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A PROB GROUP OUT TO 03Z AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.           
STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THIS              
PERIOD HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO JUST INSERTED CB REMARKS FOR NOW.           
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPON FURTHER REVIEW...WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT              
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG           
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEATHER GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WERE          
UPDATED TO MATCH LATEST THINKING.                                               
NUNEZ                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE             
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES DOWN              
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION               
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE           
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE           
LOCATED NEAR THE UT AND CO BORDER AT THIS TIME...TRACKING TOWARDS THE           
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SHOULD TAP INTO THE MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY              
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF              
THE PANHANDLES.                                                                 
A COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WHEN IT ARRIVES            
THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A                  
RESULT.                                                                         
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING BY THE WEEKEND WHEN A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES              
WILL REMAIN GOOD WHILE THE PANHANDLES REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE                  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS EARLY. BY MONDAY HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF           
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK. THIS                 
COURSE WILL CREATE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF              
THE PANHANDLES...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE            
UPPER LOW EDGES EAST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM               
WEST TO EAST THOUGH THE EAST MAY BE FAVORED AT THE END OF THE                   
EXTENDED FORECAST.                                                              
NUNEZ                                                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW WHILE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                      
NUNEZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/08                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
631 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY                     
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND HAS TRIGGERED SOME                     
ACTIVITY ALREADY THIS MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND                 
THE SEABREEZE COMES INTO PLAY...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE                
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS                
THE EASTERN CWA AFFECTING KALI...KCRP AND KVCT. VFR CONDITIONS                  
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY                    
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL                  
PLAINS. AS PER RADAR/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS...AN OLD BOUNDARY IS                
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND IS PROVIDING ENOUGH               
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN A REGION WHERE THE                       
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUE DURING THE SHORT               
TERM WILL BE THE POP FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP             
AREAWIDE...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE TOO WET SO CONFIDENCE          
IN PRECIP IS DIMINISHED. ALSO AM EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO                
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS                
COULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING COMING IN WITH              
A 2.20 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE PWAT VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.                   
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT               
TO POPS AND AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (AT BEST)                   
SEABREEZE CONVECTION TODAY. BY THURSDAY...AM ONLY EXPECTING                     
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION AS MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO                 
DECREASE SLIGHTLY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
MARINE...SEAS FELL BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND BOTH                     
WINDS/SEA WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.               
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM              
WL REMAIN WHAT TO DO WITH POPS THROUGH THE PD.  THE OVERALL                     
ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE MODELS REMAIN A BIT ON THE MOIST SIDE AS SEEN            
IN THE INITIALIZATION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT WARM TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN              
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE OVERALL LACK OF FOCUS OF                      
CONVECTION (OTHER THAN THE SEABREEZE AND A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW)...BLV              
IT WL BE BEST TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHC AT            
THIS TIME.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND POOLING OF MOISTURE WL REMAIN TO              
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PD AND SO THIS WL ALSO PLAY IN THE                        
CONSERVATIVE POPS AS WELL.  TEMPS WL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV                 
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  76  94  79  93  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
VICTORIA          97  74  99  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
LAREDO           101  79 102  81 103  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             99  76  99  77  98  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          91  80  93  82  91  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        97  77  96  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  92  81  90  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KR/97...SHORT TERM                                                              
KR/97...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
519 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO                
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL                  
PLAINS. AS PER RADAR/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS...AN OLD BOUNDARY IS                
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND IS PROVIDING ENOUGH               
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN A REGION WHERE THE                       
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUE DURING THE SHORT               
TERM WILL BE THE POP FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP             
AREAWIDE...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE TOO WET SO CONFIDENCE          
IN PRECIP IS DIMINISHED. ALSO AM EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO                
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS                
COULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING COMING IN WITH              
A 2.20 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE PWAT VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.                   
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT               
TO POPS AND AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (AT BEST)                   
SEABREEZE CONVECTION TODAY. BY THURSDAY...AM ONLY EXPECTING                     
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION AS MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO                 
DECREASE SLIGHTLY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
MARINE...SEAS FELL BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND BOTH                     
WINDS/SEA WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.               
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM              
WL REMAIN WHAT TO DO WITH POPS THROUGH THE PD.  THE OVERALL                     
ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE MODELS REMAIN A BIT ON THE MOIST SIDE AS SEEN            
IN THE INITIALIZATION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT WARM TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN              
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE OVERALL LACK OF FOCUS OF                      
CONVECTION (OTHER THAN THE SEABREEZE AND A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW)...BLV              
IT WL BE BEST TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHC AT            
THIS TIME.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND POOLING OF MOISTURE WL REMAIN TO              
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PD AND SO THIS WL ALSO PLAY IN THE                        
CONSERVATIVE POPS AS WELL.  TEMPS WL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV                 
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  76  94  79  93  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
VICTORIA          97  74  99  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
LAREDO           101  79 102  81 103  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             99  76  99  77  98  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          91  80  93  82  91  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           99  76 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        97  77  96  78  96  /  30  10  20  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  92  81  90  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KRR/97...UPDATE                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED            
IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. A MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER SE                 
SASKATCHEWAN...A MIDLEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NRN MANITOBA...AND A                    
TROF/BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER SE CANADA. THE LOW OVER SE CANADA              
HAS EXPANDED W A BIT...AND UPPER MI IS NOW UNDER NRLY FLOW ON ITS               
WRN FRINGE. AROUND THE LOW...A SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THRU ERN                  
ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS NOT                 
PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...RADARS IN ONTARIO DO SHOW            
A FEW -SHRA. ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS                
OVER THE SW THIRD...SKIES ARE CLEAR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU ERN ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS             
MORNING. HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THRU MID                  
MORNING...AND CORE OF THE 5H COLD POOL BRUSHES THAT AREA...BUT THAT             
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO GET ANY -SHRA INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.               
STILL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS DURING THE MORNING TO SEE             
IF THE ISOLD -SHRA CURRENTLY HEADING SSW TOWARD FAR ERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR MIGHT CLIP LUCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL             
BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA SINCE SHORTWAVE WILL BE S OF THE AREA               
WELL BEFORE PEAK OF THE HEATING CYCLE. STABILIZING N TO NE FLOW OFF             
LAKE SUPERIOR TO BEGIN THE DAY SUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER                
NEAR THE LAKE TODAY. DIURNAL CU INLAND SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTN FROM N TO S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF                 
SHORTWAVE AND STABILIZING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SPREADS WELL                   
INLAND. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MOS                   
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                 
MODIFICATION. ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT              
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F. PROVIDED DEEP MIXING OCCURS...DWPTS                
WELL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S PER FCST              
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO 30-35PCT.                                  
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM              
SW CANADA TO HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE S TO NE MN/FAR NW WI BY THU                 
MORNING...SO WRN FCST AREA WILL BE COOLEST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIRMASS WITH                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 60PCT OF NORMAL FOR              
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL GO JUST BLO COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE               
INTERIOR W (LOW/MID 40S). FARTHER TO THE E OF THE HIGH...WINDS                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STIR A LITTLE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...AND THERE             
MAY BE A SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING S AROUND THE SE CANADA LOW               
THRU ERN UPPER MI. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THERE (UPPER 50S             
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW/MID 50S INLAND). WILL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER             
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CHILLY AIR OVERNIGHT             
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND LAKES/STREAMS AND            
LOW-LYING AREAS (THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE HAD SIMILAR OCCURRENCES).             
IT`S GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR (LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL) WHERE             
GROUND FOG OFTEN FORMS AROUND WARM BODIES OF WATER ON QUIET/CHILLY              
NIGHTS.                                                                         
EWD EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES FRI. AT            
THE SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY S FRI WITH                
CORE OF DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN (PRECIPITABLE            
WATER FALLS TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA). SUNNY SKIES            
WILL DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH ANY CU INLAND FROM LAKE                    
SUPERIOR LIMITED TO FEW/SCT COVERAGE. EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND              
750MB UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS. COMPARED TO TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AND DWPTS A            
COUPLE OF DEGRESS LWR IN MOST PLACES. RH`S COULD FALL TO AROUND                 
25PCT WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER              
CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN THE                 
VCNTY.                                                                          
FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD MID/UPPER             
RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONUS/WRN CANADA AND A LOW AMPLITUDE               
TROF OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT               
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WOULD TYPICALLY NEED TO CONSIDER CONVECTION.             
HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER JET IS DISPLACED FAR TO THE N AND NE OF THE                
FCST AREA (HUDSON BAY VCNTY). SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL NW FLOW             
REGIME. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO              
TO QUEBEC FRI NIGHT/SAT...BUT THAT WILL BE TOO FAR N TO REQUIRE ANY             
POPS HERE. WAA REGIME WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER                  
THOUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS OVER THE            
WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SUN THE WARMEST DAY             
(MID 80S COMMON WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS) AS                 
850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                   
DROPPING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT                
FALLS HEADING THRU SE CANADA TO SEND THAT FRONT INTO THE UPPER LAKES            
MON...PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS WITH CONDITIONS GOING TO VLIFR/LIFR              
THIS MORNING AT BOTH SITES DUE TO MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING. EAST WIND AND WEAK UPSLOPE AT KCMX ALREADY RESULTING IN                
LIGHT FOG THERE. ALSO RECEIVED REPORT EARLIER FROM CO-WORKER COMING             
BACK FROM THE U.P. STATE FAIR THAT THERE WAS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG               
NEAR KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR 12Z-14Z TODAY DUE TO                 
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS TODAY OVER FAR            
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO CHANNELING BETWEEN MINNESOTA SHORELINE             
AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA            
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 25 KNOTS...SEEM POSSIBLE            
ON SATURDAY IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE               
RIDGE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH NEXT              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
103 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PERIODIC MID/HIGH LEVEL              
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR DENSE FOG                 
DEVELOPMENT. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS HOWEVER SUGGEST ENOUGH BREAKS              
IN THE CLOUDS TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING FOR MVFR VSBY IN            
FOG. THIS IS MORE LIKELY AT MBS AND FNT WHERE CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT             
SPREADS ARE LOWER. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION FROM CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL               
DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO A BKN VFR CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON...WITH             
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1005 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST                   
AREA. PLAN TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP WORDING FROM THE                 
REST OF THIS EVENINGS FORECAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                           
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE                  
CURRENT UPPER 50 SFC DEWPOINTS SUGGEST A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG                  
OVERNIGHT IS STILL JUSTIFIED. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                      
UPSTREAM HOWEVER WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING                   
OVERNIGHT. SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF FOG TO BE ANYTHING                  
MORE THAN PATCHY.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008                             
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                                         
THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A                   
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN             
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG                
UNDER EXTREMELY MEAGER ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES (ABOVE 500MB). A               
COMPOSITE LAKE/CONVECTIVE THERMAL GRADIENT HAS ESTABLISHED FROM                 
ROUGHLY PORT HURON TO BAY CITY. MODELS INDICATE A PUSH OF THE                   
BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS            
LOST AND WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY PUSHES IN BEHIND. WITH THE WEAKLY                 
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE UNTIL A SURFACE               
INVERSION GROWS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS            
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ALONG               
ANY BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND OR CELL MERGERS. GIVEN WEAK MEAN                 
LAYER FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL               
UNDER SLOW MOVING/STALLED THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO HALF INCH AND                  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE EXPERIENCED.                                     
WITH AN INFILTRATING MARINE AIRMASS AND WEAK FLOW HAVE ADDED PATCHY             
FOG FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO...WITH ANY DENSE SPOTS REMAINING             
ISOLATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER            
60S SOUTH.                                                                      
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY                                     
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN               
UPPER LOW IS ON SATELLITE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL                 
AFFECT SE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM            
IS THAT THE SYSTEM FROM TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT ENOUGH               
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB TO REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SUPPORT FROM               
THE WAVE. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW, AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC FORCING,               
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN -14C AND                
-17C. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE PARCEL IN THE UPPER 70S/UPPER            
50S TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE 12Z MODELS ARE             
NOT GREATLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION            
BUT A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION,             
WHICH INCLUDES LAKE BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTIONS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC             
CONTRIBUTIONS.                                                                  
THIS WAVE WILL DO A BETTER JOB OF SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE              
LOW LEVELS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM             
DURING FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AND                   
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT, WILL PROVIDE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER.                 
THE LARGER STORY WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ATTEMPTING               
TO TAKE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                     
LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS THEN                  
LOOK REASONABLE IN MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS OVER SE MICHIGAN ON               
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED               
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH.                               
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL REPRESENT A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN                 
AHEAD OF A WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS PART OF A TREND IN THE               
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                
THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD AFTER CONSIDERING THE FLOW WILL BE FORCED BY              
RELIABLE DEPICTIONS OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN                   
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE               
THAT THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP A LONG WAVE RIDGE ANCHORED              
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND GUIDE THE WESTERLIES FROM CENTRAL                
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CUT OFF LOW LUMBERS              
AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WE EXPECT THE WARM ADVECTION            
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT SOME         
CLOUDS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE A             
GOOD BET.                                                                       
GIVEN THAT A STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT                  
LAKES, A REASONABLE SCENARIO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES A COLD                
FRONT SETTLING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY                
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GLOBAL MODELS DRAW SOME MOISTURE INTO             
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CUT OFF LOW THAT IS STILL DRIFTING IN THE             
PLAINS. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST             
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH VARIABILITY WILL BE INVOLVED IN THE POSITION OF            
THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES               
THROUGH, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD END UP DRY AS THE UPPER LOW                
DRIFTS WESTWARD AND AWAITS THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST TROUGH BEFORE                 
LIFTING BACK INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. EITHER WAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES            
DO APPEAR TO BE A MORE SOLID PART OF THE FORECAST DURING THE MID                
WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO QUEBEC.                               
MARINE...                                                                       
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS              
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO                    
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WIND SPEED WILL BE MODEST BUT THE LONG NE FETCH OF            
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE HIGH SIDE ON THE BAY AND LAKE             
HURON WATERS BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.            
THE NE WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRIVE THE CHANCE OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS MORE OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WILL             
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW BACKING OF THE WIND TOWARD THE SW BY SATURDAY.            
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI                                                           
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
MARINE.......BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
845 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE              
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS                
EVENING. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD              
BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE                     
REBUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING A DRYING             
TREND AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW             
WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS TO            
THE COASTS AND LOWER WESTERN VALLEYS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...           
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO                   
COUNTIES...                                                                     
.NEAR TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                               
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KNKX SHOWS THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE              
AND WETTER...AND A MAJOR CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE ABSENCE OF                
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE LEADING EDGE            
OF THE NEXT SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS ADVANCING ACROSS EASTERN               
RIVERSIDE COUNTY...IMPERIAL COUNTY...AND NORTHEAST BAJA CALIFORNIA              
THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA MID             
DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. USING BOTH THE LATEST RUC13 MODEL AND THE NAM12            
MODEL TO DETERMINE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THIS             
PERIOD...THE STRONGEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE/300-200 MB DIVERGENCE                
COUPLET AND 850-500MB UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THIS MORNING IS              
OVER SE SAN DIEGO COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING THIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO              
THE SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE 10000 FOOT RIDGE             
AND JOHNSON VALLEY. FOR THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS ITS OVER              
ALL MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS...AND FOR THE LATE AFTERNON AND                  
EVENING HOURS...OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ANZA BORREGO DESERT AND               
SOUTHERN END OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. OVER THE COASTS AND INLAND                
VALLEY AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS...THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE             
MODELS SHOW WEAK DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT               
THIS MAY BE OVER DONE DUE TO THE MODEL TERRAIN AND THE SOUTHEAST                
FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
OVER THESE AREAS THAT WOULD OFFSET THE DOWNWARD MOTION...SO THE AIR             
MASS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND RECEPTIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS              
THAT FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE CARRIED WEST TO NORTHWEST                  
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS/COASTS...PLUS THE MID LEVEL VERTICAL                  
VELOCITY BECOMES UPWARD OVER THE COASTS AND VALLEYS THIS EVENING.               
DID SOME MODIFICATION TO THE POPS/WX/SKY AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT               
ALL OF THIS.                                                                    
.REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                           
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER THE                  
850-700 MB LAYER STREAMLINES ARE ADVERTISED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH ON             
FRIDAY AND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY THIS SHOULD                 
CONFINE THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THEY ARE                
LIKELY TO BE JUST AS OR MORE NUMEROUS THAN TODAY AND HAVE LITTLE                
MOVEMENT. THIS RAISES THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ISSUE A A            
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER WILL MAKE                
THAT DECISION AROUND NOON AFTER REVIEWING GFS MODEL AND COORDINATING            
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ON SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LESS              
NUMEROUS AND END EARLIER...AS WELL AS DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.               
THERE MAY STILL BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FOR THE DESERT AREAS.             
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                                
APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TEND WITH A                
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WITH WEAK...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW                          
ALOFT....HENCE NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
141500Z...12Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWS MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1200 FT              
ASL. STRATUS HAS ALREADY CLEARED AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BUT SHOULD             
REMAIN OVER THE OCEAN TODAY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY               
MOVING WEST INTO EASTERN IMPERIAL AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THESE                 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND MAY MAKE IT INTO               
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS LATER THIS MORNING. BASES SHOULD BE                
AROUND 8-10K FT WITH TOPS NEAR 40K FT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MAINLY                
AFTER 18Z. THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS             
AND CAN CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MID             
LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15K FT WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL AND WRN VALLEY AREAS                    
TONIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08 AND            
10Z. BASES WILL BE NEAR 1200 FT ASL. LOCAL VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN                
HAZE NEAR SUNRISE. SS/MM                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CA...NONE AT THIS TIME.                                                         
PZ...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...BALFOUR                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...SULLIVAN/MM                                                   
WARNING/NOWCASTS...PG                                                           
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO                                          
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED            
IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. A MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER SE                 
SASKATCHEWAN...A MIDLEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NRN MANITOBA...AND A                    
TROF/BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER SE CANADA. THE LOW OVER SE CANADA              
HAS EXPANDED W A BIT...AND UPPER MI IS NOW UNDER NRLY FLOW ON ITS               
WRN FRINGE. AROUND THE LOW...A SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THRU ERN                  
ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS NOT                 
PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...RADARS IN ONTARIO DO SHOW            
A FEW -SHRA. ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS                
OVER THE SW THIRD...SKIES ARE CLEAR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (415 AM EDT)...                                                     
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU ERN ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS             
MORNING. HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THRU MID                  
MORNING...AND CORE OF THE 5H COLD POOL BRUSHES THAT AREA...BUT THAT             
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO GET ANY -SHRA INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.               
STILL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS DURING THE MORNING TO SEE             
IF THE ISOLD -SHRA CURRENTLY HEADING SSW TOWARD FAR ERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR MIGHT CLIP LUCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL             
BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA SINCE SHORTWAVE WILL BE S OF THE AREA               
WELL BEFORE PEAK OF THE HEATING CYCLE. STABILIZING N TO NE FLOW OFF             
LAKE SUPERIOR TO BEGIN THE DAY SUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER                
NEAR THE LAKE TODAY. DIURNAL CU INLAND SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTN FROM N TO S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF                 
SHORTWAVE AND STABILIZING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SPREADS WELL                   
INLAND. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MOS                   
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                 
MODIFICATION. ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT              
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F. PROVIDED DEEP MIXING OCCURS...DWPTS                
WELL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S PER FCST              
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO 30-35PCT.                                  
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM              
SW CANADA TO HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE S TO NE MN/FAR NW WI BY THU                 
MORNING...SO WRN FCST AREA WILL BE COOLEST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIRMASS WITH                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 60PCT OF NORMAL FOR              
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL GO JUST BLO COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE               
INTERIOR W (LOW/MID 40S). FARTHER TO THE E OF THE HIGH...WINDS                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STIR A LITTLE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...AND THERE             
MAY BE A SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING S AROUND THE SE CANADA LOW               
THRU ERN UPPER MI. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THERE (UPPER 50S             
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW/MID 50S INLAND). WILL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER             
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CHILLY AIR OVERNIGHT             
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND LAKES/STREAMS AND            
LOW-LYING AREAS (THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE HAD SIMILAR OCCURRENCES).             
IT`S GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR (LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL) WHERE             
GROUND FOG OFTEN FORMS AROUND WARM BODIES OF WATER ON QUIET/CHILLY              
NIGHTS.                                                                         
EWD EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES FRI. AT            
THE SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY S FRI WITH                
CORE OF DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN (PRECIPITABLE            
WATER FALLS TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA). SUNNY SKIES            
WILL DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH ANY CU INLAND FROM LAKE                    
SUPERIOR LIMITED TO FEW/SCT COVERAGE. EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND              
750MB UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS. COMPARED TO TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AND DWPTS A            
COUPLE OF DEGRESS LWR IN MOST PLACES. RH`S COULD FALL TO AROUND                 
25PCT WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER              
CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN THE                 
VCNTY.                                                                          
FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD MID/UPPER             
RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONUS/WRN CANADA AND A LOW AMPLITUDE               
TROF OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT               
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WOULD TYPICALLY NEED TO CONSIDER CONVECTION.             
HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER JET IS DISPLACED FAR TO THE N AND NE OF THE                
FCST AREA (HUDSON BAY VCNTY). SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL NW FLOW             
REGIME. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO              
TO QUEBEC FRI NIGHT/SAT...BUT THAT WILL BE TOO FAR N TO REQUIRE ANY             
POPS HERE. WAA REGIME WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER                  
THOUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS OVER THE            
WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SUN THE WARMEST DAY             
(MID 80S COMMON WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS) AS                 
850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                   
DROPPING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT                
FALLS HEADING THRU SE CANADA TO SEND THAT FRONT INTO THE UPPER LAKES            
MON...PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS IN FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR                 
CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED. FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND                 
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT THOUGH SINCE              
FOG LAST TWO NIGHTS AT ANY GIVEN SITE HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE BOTH             
IN SPACE AND IN TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR THE FOG WOULD BE AFTER 06Z.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS TODAY OVER FAR            
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO CHANNELING BETWEEN MINNESOTA SHORELINE             
AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA            
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 25 KNOTS...SEEM POSSIBLE            
ON SATURDAY IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE               
RIDGE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH NEXT              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
642 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LCL AREAS OF REDUCED VSBY IN FOG WITH AREAS OF MID CLOUDS KEEPING               
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AT BAY. FEW -SHRA AND ISOL TSTMS ROAMING THE E              
DKTS SHOULD WORK INTO WC MN ERLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER TROF                
SLOWLY MOVES ACRS DKTS.  WEAK UPPER TROF ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW              
OVER E CANADA WILL LEND SOME SUPPORT TO A FEW AFTERNOON                         
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS.  VERY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN IN                 
PLACE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF                      
CONVECTION.  MODELS SHOWING AREAS OF 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE DURING THE            
AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROVIDING FAIRLY              
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES.  0-6KM SHEAR WEAK...GENERALLY LESS THAN 20                
KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY             
WITH DEVELOPING NELY FLOW BRINGING IN SLIGHT COOLER AIRMASS.                    
DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO AREA TONIGHT AND                 
FRIDAY BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND AN END TO CONVECTION.  MIN                  
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY            
SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN AND WI.                                         
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE ONE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE            
SURFACE AND WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE                  
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY BEGIN TO BECOME A PLAYER AGAIN WITH                 
SHOWER CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.                                               
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN                     
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE THIS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.                 
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT SFC WINDS TO THE               
AREA THIS MORNING AND. LOWEST VISIBILITY IS ACROSS MUCH OF                      
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SOME SITES SEEING LESS THAN 1/4SM. A                    
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS                  
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND INTO WEST CENT WI WITH VIS ON THE                    
FRINGE OF THIS DECK DROPPING TO A MILE OR LESS. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE              
OCCURRING UNDER THE CLOUD DECK. VIS WILL START IMPROVING BETWEEN                
NOW AND 14Z. BIG UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS              
FROM CANADA THIS MORNING AND IS SENDING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE                 
EASTERN DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED               
WITH THESE AREAS OF FORCING ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT PAST              
THE DAKS/MN BORDER AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AT              
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. OF MORE CONCERN IS A SECOND SHORTWAVE                
DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT               
TERM RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE WILL TRACK FURTHER WEST                 
THAN THE CURRENT WAVE SUGGESTING THAT SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL BE               
FURTHER WEST AND MOVE ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI. HAVE                
INCLUDED VCSH AND A CB AT KMSP/KSTC/KRNH FOR EARLY/MID AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT     
FOR THE POTENTIAL BUT POTENTIAL AND EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LOWER                  
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL STICK WITH PRECIP MENTION KRWF AS WELL AS A                
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THAT AREA ONCE AGAIN. KRNH MAY SEE A               
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE                
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE NEXT APPROACHES. DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHES IN        
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP BUT ALSO               
ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF FOG. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR ONCE ANY MORNING              
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEAR. ..MDB..                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1046 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FOCUS THIS AFTN IS ALONG INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE               
RED RIVER. UPPER LOW OVER ERN MT WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH IMPACT ON               
OUR WX AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH IT REMAIN OVER ERN MT AND FAR                 
WRN ND. HOWEVER...SFC LOW IN ECNTRL SD SOUTH OF ABERDEEN IS ASSOC               
WITH UPR LOW AND HAS INVERTED TROUGH JUST WEST OF FARGO-GRAND                   
FORKS-HALLOCK LATE THIS MORNING. WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH                  
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TROUGH POSITION. LOW TO MID 60 DEW PTS                  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS                  
AFTN WITH LOCAL AREAS NR 70 AS FULLY MATURE CROPS AND WET GROUND                
IN MANY AREAS ADD TO WATER TO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THESE DEW PTS               
CAPTURED BEST BY 12Z RUC WHILE 12Z NAM IS WAY LOW WITH ITS 50S.                 
06Z GFS SEEMS A BIT BETTER BUT A TAD LOW STILL. NET EFFECT WILL BE              
TO HAVE HIGHER CAPES PER 12Z RUC OVER THE VALLEY THIS AFTN THAN                 
EARLIER THOUGHT WITH 12Z RUC SHOWING 2000-2500 J/KG CAPES BY 00Z                
IN THE VALLEY PROPER. WITH POSITION OF INVERTED TROUGH AND HIGHEST              
CAPES IN THE VALLEY AREA WILL UP POPS A BIT AND HIGHLIGHT HVY                   
RAIN THREAT. DVL REGION LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE                    
TROUGH AND NOT AS MUCH AFFECTED SO REMOVED HVY RAIN THREAT. SOME                
DRIER AIR TOO FEEDING FROM ONTARIO HIGH INTO BDE-BJI AREAS THIS                 
AFTN SO THREAT FOR CONVECTION AND HVY RAIN THERE TOO IS WEAKER.                 
NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS MADE AS MID 70S OR LOWER 80S REASONABLE.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS AT BJI IMPROVED TO MVFR AT 1530Z AND LOOK FOR SLOW                     
IMPROVEMENT THRU 17Z AS AREA OF LOW CLDS FROM ROSEAU TO BJI                     
NARROWS AND GRADUALLY BREAKS UP. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH BEST                  
THREAT FOR CONVECTION MIDDAY THRU LATE AFTN NEAR GFK/FAR SITES.                 
LEAST THREAT ATTM SEEMS TO BE FOR DVL REGION WHERE WINDS WILL BE                
NORTHERLY AND AIRMASS A BIT DRIER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES                  
EARLY...THEN TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH              
A SLIGHT TREND TO THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM               
CANADA. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON MOS TEMPS...WITH                
THE NAM MODEL HANDLING INSTABILITY FIELDS A BIT BETTER. THEREFORE               
A MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED THIS MORNING.                                        
FOR TODAY...SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL PERSIST MAINLY EAST OF                 
THE VALLEY THROUGH 14Z. SOME AREAS COULD GET LOCALLY DENSE IF                   
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...BUT THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS AND FEW                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT. WE                 
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT THOUGH AND ISSUE NOWCASTS AS NEEDED.       
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND       
WEST OF THE VALLEY. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST                 
2KM WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHEAST ND TO AROUND GFK...WHERE PWATS WILL                
APPROACH 1.25 INCHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF SFC                 
BASED CAPE...AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 81 SHOULD BE REACHED.                  
WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE WAVE TO THE WEST...EXPECT SOME                 
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. STORM              
MOTION IS NEAR 0...SO THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON.               
THE LACK OF SUSTAINED FORCING AND ONLY ABOUT 10KT OF LLJ SHOULD                 
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH WET SOILS IN MOST                 
AREAS IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.                                          
ON FRI...RIDGING AND DRYING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS                  
WILL BRING ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR              
TO THU HIGHS...WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                
FOR SAT-MON...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH THE MERCURY CLIMBING                  
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH UPPER RIDGING AND NO INSTABILITY...A DRY PERIOD              
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
TUE-WED...SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO OUR EASTERN AREAS ON                      
WED...AS THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF CANADA                  
BECOMES CAPTURED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO GO                
OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE EAST ON WED...ALONG WITH CAPES APPROACHING               
1500 J/KG.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DK/RIDDLE                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1102 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND A CLOSED                  
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE                  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND                    
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THE LATEST H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROF OVER ERN CANADA WITH                
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO IN/IL. A                  
WEAK VORT MAX IS ALONG CENTRL IN/IL. A NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO               
VALLEY REMAINS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION IS UNDER A                 
BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES               
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS KICKED OFF BY THE SHORT WAVE OVER IN/IL ARE MOVING                
EWD ACROSS SERN INDIANA AND INTO OUR WRN CWA THIS MORNING.                      
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA                
AS THE H5 VORT MAX MOVES FROM CTNRL INDIANA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO        
NE KENTUCKY. INCREASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON                   
WITH GFS FORECAST CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...HOWEVER WITH WEAK                
SHEAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ADJUSTED               
POP AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                             
EXPECT A DRYING TREND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO                
THE EAST. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF                
KEEPING PRECIP EAST OF THE ILN AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN                    
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ACCORDING TO                 
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS                
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A SLIGHT                     
WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY IN WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE HIGH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
MODELS HAVE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING SPRAWLING SFC HI             
PRES ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VLY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND            
AS REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING UPR TROF OVER ERN            
CANADA...AND EVEN SLOWER EVOLVING UPR LO CUTOFF FROM MEAN FLOW AND              
SETTLING IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG                
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH SFC HI WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE             
INTO MSTLY CLR SKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH LIGHT NE FLO...HAVE                    
UNDERCUT MOS GUID AGAIN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE L80S.                       
SOME DIFFERENCES THEN DVLP WRT MOVEMENT AND EFFECTS OF UPR LO OVER              
THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. IT IS BECMG                        
INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAY IN FACT NEVER GET TO THE            
OH VLY...AND REMAIN IN THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE BECMG PICKED UP BY               
THE DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF              
CONTINUES TO INDCG REX BLOCK LIKE PATTERN DVLPG WITH UPR TROF                   
HOLDING ACRS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPR LO STALLING IN THE CNTRL                
PLAINS. WRN ATLC UPR RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED NORTH INTO REGION BY                   
MIDWEEK WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS AN OVERALL            
DRIER AND LESS STORMY SOLN FOR OH VLY. OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON              
OTHER HAND ARE LESS DRAMATIC WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES...NAMELY THE            
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE RIDGING DVLPG INTO OH VLY BY MIDWEEK. THIS              
CONSENSUS SOLN IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF MAINTAINING ENHANCED SRLY FLO              
FROM THE GULF BTWN THE UPR LO AND THE RIDGE...ALLOWING AN                       
INCREASINGLY MOIST HUMID AIRMASS TO INVADE THE REGION DURING FIRST              
HALF OF THE WEEK. PREFER MORE UNSETTLED OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLN FOR            
NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDCG MODEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES                  
MON-WED.  HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FOCUS BEST PCPN                   
CHANCES ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU REGION.                          
TEMPS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE                
EXTENDED. MEX GUID CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH AFTN HIGHS.                    
UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE              
L80S THRU TUES...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE U70S MON/TUES IF MORE                
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS REALIZED.  WILL ALLOW FOR WARMEST TEMPS WED            
AS WARM FRONT PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF REGION OVER GRT LKS.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TO SETTLE INTO THE                        
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL                    
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.                   
INITIAL S/W WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCT SHOWERS LAST NIGHT HAS                
PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES TAKING PRECIP AND CLOUDS WITH IT.                  
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BEING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES AND SOME                  
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WL BE OBSERVED EARLY. NEXT S/W TO                  
DROP INTO OHIO TDA. FORCING IS WEAK AND MSTR CONTINUES TO BE                    
LIMITED. GFS IS DEVELOPING LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT                     
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH SFC DEW POINTS. PREFER NAM SOLN WITH ONLY                 
MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH AND                
CB FOR A PERIOD TODAY (MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING) AT ALL TAF                
SITES BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. WITH MARGINAL                   
INSTBY EXPECTED CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT CHC/S                 
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT                  
TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG                      
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY                      
RESTRICTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.                                             
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO                                                             
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM                                                             
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO                                                           
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...AR                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN            
OVER NOAM. A BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE WAS OVER SW CANADA AND MUCH OF THE             
WRN CONUS WHILE A TROF WAS OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN                 
GREAT LAKES. A CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED FROM SRN SASK INTO NE MT AND                
WILL HAVE LTL EFFECT ON OUR WX HERE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD POOL            
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF HAS TRIGGERED SOME CONVECTION               
OVER FAR ERN UPR MI AS NOTED ON RADAR.                                          
 LOOKS LIKE MAY EVEN ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE            
WAY OF CLOUD COVER...RADARS IN ONTARIO DO SHOW A FEW -SHRA. ACROSS              
UPPER MI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS OVER THE SW                        
THIRD...SKIES ARE CLEAR.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY            
EVEN POP UP A SHOWER OVER SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
BUT ANY SHOWER WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODEL SNDGS A SHARP INCREASE             
IN MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE                
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
MODELS INDICATE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE             
WL MOVE FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN BY THU MORNING SO WOULD EXPECT             
THE WRN FCST AREA TO BE COOLEST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER              
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE              
WATER VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR UNDER 60PCT OF NORMAL FOR THIS                
TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO GO BLO COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE             
INTERIOR W (LOW/MID 40S) PER GOING FCST. FARTHER TO THE E OF THE                
HIGH...WINDS SHOULD MIX SOME OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...AND THERE MAY             
BE A SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING S AROUND LOW OVER SE CANADA LOW.             
WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THERE WITH UPPER 50S ALONG LAKE                 
SUPERIOR AND LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. KEPT IN PATCHY FOG OVER THE                 
INTERIOR W HALF WHERE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CHILLY AIR OVERNIGHT                 
COULD GENERATE GROUND FOG AROUND INLAND LAKES/STREAMS AND LOW-LYING             
AREAS.                                                                          
UPR RDG AXIS WILL SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRI. AT THE                  
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S BY LATE FRI AS THE               
CORE OF THE DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN                
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE            
AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH VERY                
LIMITED CU OVER INLAND AREAS. EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 750MB                
UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE            
A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AND DWPTS A COUPLE OF DEGRESS LWR AS                 
DRIER/WARMER AIR MIXES TO THE SFC. RH`S VALUES COULD FALL TO AROUND             
25PCT WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH COULD BE A CONCERN FOR               
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH             
HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY.                                                         
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATER                                             
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CONUS AND             
WESTERN CANADA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND.                
MAIN UPPER JET IS OVER HUDSON BAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK                  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR              
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER THOUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL              
CONTINUE RIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN             
THE 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY (IN THE MID             
80S) AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD                 
FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE                 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS HEADING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA TO               
SEND THAT FRONT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...PROVIDING THE            
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME.                                    
A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CONUS            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM                
NORTHEAST QUEBEC SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. A WEAK                    
SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL                 
SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD                
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOST OF THE                
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO.                
WITH THE SURFACE INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE                  
ENERGY EAST WILL NOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                        
THE BROAD RIDGE AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH                
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA               
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WORKS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE REGION. UNDER DRY STABLE                       
AIR...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.                                               
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.               
ECMWF IS CALLING FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE AREA AS WELL.                
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. THUS WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT               
CHANGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS IN FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR                 
CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER             
THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS            
TO OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY            
LATER THIS EVENING (BLO 15 KT) AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED            
OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA             
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER WINDS...UP NEAR 25 KNOTS...SEEM                   
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH              
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS               
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JV                                                                 
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...JV                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
103 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED            
IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. A MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER SE                 
SASKATCHEWAN...A MIDLEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NRN MANITOBA...AND A                    
TROF/BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER SE CANADA. THE LOW OVER SE CANADA              
HAS EXPANDED W A BIT...AND UPPER MI IS NOW UNDER NRLY FLOW ON ITS               
WRN FRINGE. AROUND THE LOW...A SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THRU ERN                  
ONTARIO TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS NOT                 
PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...RADARS IN ONTARIO DO SHOW            
A FEW -SHRA. ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS                
OVER THE SW THIRD...SKIES ARE CLEAR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (415 AM EDT)...                                                     
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU ERN ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS             
MORNING. HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THRU MID                  
MORNING...AND CORE OF THE 5H COLD POOL BRUSHES THAT AREA...BUT THAT             
PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO GET ANY -SHRA INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.               
STILL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS DURING THE MORNING TO SEE             
IF THE ISOLD -SHRA CURRENTLY HEADING SSW TOWARD FAR ERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR MIGHT CLIP LUCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL             
BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA SINCE SHORTWAVE WILL BE S OF THE AREA               
WELL BEFORE PEAK OF THE HEATING CYCLE. STABILIZING N TO NE FLOW OFF             
LAKE SUPERIOR TO BEGIN THE DAY SUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER                
NEAR THE LAKE TODAY. DIURNAL CU INLAND SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTN FROM N TO S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF                 
SHORTWAVE AND STABILIZING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SPREADS WELL                   
INLAND. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MOS                   
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR                 
MODIFICATION. ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT              
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F. PROVIDED DEEP MIXING OCCURS...DWPTS                
WELL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S PER FCST              
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL SEND RH DOWN TO 30-35PCT.                                  
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM              
SW CANADA TO HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE S TO NE MN/FAR NW WI BY THU                 
MORNING...SO WRN FCST AREA WILL BE COOLEST TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIRMASS WITH                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 60PCT OF NORMAL FOR              
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL GO JUST BLO COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE               
INTERIOR W (LOW/MID 40S). FARTHER TO THE E OF THE HIGH...WINDS                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STIR A LITTLE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...AND THERE             
MAY BE A SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING S AROUND THE SE CANADA LOW               
THRU ERN UPPER MI. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THERE (UPPER 50S             
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW/MID 50S INLAND). WILL ADD PATCHY FOG OVER             
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CHILLY AIR OVERNIGHT             
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND LAKES/STREAMS AND            
LOW-LYING AREAS (THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE HAD SIMILAR OCCURRENCES).             
IT`S GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR (LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL) WHERE             
GROUND FOG OFTEN FORMS AROUND WARM BODIES OF WATER ON QUIET/CHILLY              
NIGHTS.                                                                         
EWD EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE S INTO THE UPPER LAKES FRI. AT            
THE SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY S FRI WITH                
CORE OF DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN (PRECIPITABLE            
WATER FALLS TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA). SUNNY SKIES            
WILL DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART WITH ANY CU INLAND FROM LAKE                    
SUPERIOR LIMITED TO FEW/SCT COVERAGE. EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND              
750MB UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS. COMPARED TO TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER AND DWPTS A            
COUPLE OF DEGRESS LWR IN MOST PLACES. RH`S COULD FALL TO AROUND                 
25PCT WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER              
CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN THE                 
VCNTY.                                                                          
FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND...PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD MID/UPPER             
RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONUS/WRN CANADA AND A LOW AMPLITUDE               
TROF OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT               
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WOULD TYPICALLY NEED TO CONSIDER CONVECTION.             
HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER JET IS DISPLACED FAR TO THE N AND NE OF THE                
FCST AREA (HUDSON BAY VCNTY). SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL NW FLOW             
REGIME. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO              
TO QUEBEC FRI NIGHT/SAT...BUT THAT WILL BE TOO FAR N TO REQUIRE ANY             
POPS HERE. WAA REGIME WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER                  
THOUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS OVER THE            
WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH SUN THE WARMEST DAY             
(MID 80S COMMON WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS) AS                 
850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                   
DROPPING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT                
FALLS HEADING THRU SE CANADA TO SEND THAT FRONT INTO THE UPPER LAKES            
MON...PROVIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BUILDS IN FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR                 
CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS TODAY OVER FAR            
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO CHANNELING BETWEEN MINNESOTA SHORELINE             
AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA            
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 25 KNOTS...SEEM POSSIBLE            
ON SATURDAY IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE               
RIDGE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH NEXT              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WAS                  
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT EXISTED OVER             
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE INDICATED 15 TO 20 KNOT              
PARCEL FLOW OVER A MESO-SCALE BAND OF BAROCLINICITY ACROSS EASTERN              
KANSAS.  THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION               
WAS THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE.  OTHER CHALLENGES EXTENDED INTO             
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND                      
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE WARRANTED.                                            
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                          
I`M GOING TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES.  WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN               
NORTHERN MISSOURI IS TRENDING ON RADAR.                                         
ULTIMATELY NOT A SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL HAS A SNIFF ABOUT WHATS GOING            
ON RIGHT NOW...LET ALONE IN THE FUTURE.  BASED ON RADAR AND MOISTURE            
CHANNEL IMAGERY TRENDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE                  
INCREASED FOR TONIGHTS PERIOD.  ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING               
INSTABILITY TRENDS OVER EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI.  RUC MIXED             
LAYER CAPE INDICATES VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO CAP.                    
FORCING FROM THE NE KANSAS UPPER LOW INTERACTING WITH THIS CAPE                 
COULD YIELD ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THATS NOT INDICATED BY THE               
MODELS.                                                                         
FRIDAYS PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOTALLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW TONIGHTS                  
CONVECTION EVOLVES. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN FOR            
FRIDAYS DAY PERIOD.  RAIN CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH               
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.                
HAVE DECREASED FRIDAY NIGHTS RAIN CHANCES.                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY)...                                             
MADE SOME SERIOUS ADJUSTMENTS WITH SATURDAY - TUESDAYS POPS.  THE               
MAIN SYNOPTIC UPPER LOW IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY STALL OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF                      
COLORADO/KANSAS.  THIS POSITIONING WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR HIGH                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN MISSOURI.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...I DECIDED             
TO COMPLETELY TAKE OUT POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...AS THE ENTIRE                   
WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI             
OZARKS.                                                                         
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS HEADING INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE              
SHEAR AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.  THIS WOULD ALLOW              
TROPICAL AIR TO SPREAD BACK IN  A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE                 
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY OR NEXT WEEK.             
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN                   
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT READINGS FROM WARMING OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 80S              
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP               
FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF AIRMASS FILTERS IN.                                   
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT              
24 HOURS WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AVIATION WEATHER OVERNIGHT. CURRENT              
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION WELL...HOWEVER...THE                  
REGION WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT                 
THOUGHTS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO                 
IMPACT THE TAF SITES AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF                    
PERIOD. OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN THE NEAR                 
VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE               
TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. IF IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INSTEAD              
OF PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE OZARKS...AS INDICATED BY THE                        
MODELS...THEN TERMINAL CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE.                            
HATCH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
317 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...                                          
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN                
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT              
IN NE MONTANA MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION              
IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOWS MOVEMENT...AND              
AS WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHERLY...IE SHIFTING THE DOWNSLOPING               
OFF THE SNOWY MTNS FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL              
WORDING GOING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. CURRENT              
TRENDS AND RUC SUGGEST WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH FOR ACTIVITY TO                   
REACH THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA               
AS WELL. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE                   
HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHICH ARE MOVING QUITE FAST FROM NNW TO SSE WITH              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW. FOCUS OF PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTH LATE TONIGHT                 
INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING               
ON FRIDAY...AND AS IT DOES THE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA WILL DIMINISH.              
DESPITE THE DRYING...DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY               
COOL WITH HIGHS TOMORROW MAINLY IN THE 70S. THINK UPSLOPE FLOW AND              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER MOST PARTS                   
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASED SUN AS THE DAY                 
WEARS ON. DID CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG TONIGHT GIVEN THE                 
COOL AND WET AIRMASS...BUT IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN                
FAIRLY MIXED...WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO              
KEEP WATCH FOR THIS...COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD OR FOG ALONG              
THE FOOTHILLS IF ENOUGH PCPN FALLS THIS EVENING.                                
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WARMER ON SATURDAY AS UPPER              
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE                 
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE ALREADY QUITE HIGH IN THE LOW                   
590S. DESPITE THIS...PERSISTENT EAST FLOW WITH FILLING LOW TO OUR               
SOUTH WILL KEEP WARM UP FROM HAPPENING TOO DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS ON               
SATURDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE                
LOWER TO MID 20S...IE HIGHS IN THE 80S.                                         
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...                           
MADE JUST A FEW CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS WERE IN              
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH            
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS. RIDGE PROGGED TO BREAK                
DOWN A BIT ON TUE AS SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. GFS DID BRING             
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MON NIGHT                   
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. POPS WERE ALREADY IN SW MOUNTAINS BUT ADDED                  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NW MOUNTAINS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WAS STILL                   
FORECAST TO MOVE E INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY                
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE IN                
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO RAISE MINS TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MEX             
FOR MON NIGHT WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA. GFS/ECMWF BRING PACIFIC              
TROUGH TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. POPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE ALTHOUGH 700             
MB TEMPS WERE QUITE HIGH WHICH COULD RESULT IN CENTRAL PART OF AREA             
BEING CAPPED. CAN ADJUST POPS AT LATER TIME IF ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES            
TO LOOK CAPPED. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED                 
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. RAISED TEMPS              
ON WED IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE GFS 700 MB MIX DOWN                 
TEMPS. EXPANDED POPS FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF                   
BROUGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. ADJUSTED TEMPS THU TO RAISE                 
THEM A BIT IN THE E. INCREASING DYNAMICS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY                 
RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER. WILL WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR THIS                 
POSSIBILITY. ARTHUR                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM KBIL              
TO THE NE BIG HORNS EAST...AND OVER THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH                 
FOOTHILLS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. SCATTERED                     
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN AND                
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.                 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE AND S PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON              
FRI. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIG HORNS TONIGHT                  
WITH AREAS OF OBSCURATION ON FRI. ARTHUR                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 051/075 053/086 058/092 058/092 062/093 061/092 058/087                     
    51/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T                        
LVM 042/077 044/087 049/091 052/092 053/088 050/087 050/086                     
    21/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    10/B    02/T    22/T                        
HDN 050/076 050/087 056/093 057/096 060/093 059/094 058/090                     
    72/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/U                        
MLS 052/079 054/087 058/091 060/094 065/093 062/094 061/091                     
    62/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/U                        
4BQ 050/076 051/084 055/088 058/093 059/090 060/094 059/089                     
    83/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/B                        
BHK 050/079 051/085 056/087 058/092 058/089 057/093 058/089                     
    62/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/U                        
SHR 047/071 046/082 051/089 052/090 055/089 054/093 054/088                     
    84/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    21/U                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
338 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RECENT NWP HAS MOVED THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE MAIN CUT OFF                 
LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN WAS ORIGINALLY                             
FORECAST...THEREFORE WE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH                 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST.                                                            
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                     
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW CUT OFF LOW              
CENTERED OVER THE MT/ND/CANADIAN BORDER WITH A FEW WAVES MOVING                 
THRU THE NW FLOW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF                       
INTEREST IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND HAS                
SPARKED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE ML                
CAPES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 2500J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH TO HOLD                 
ANYTHING BACK. AS WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD...TSTM CHANCES                     
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK                
DUE TO BLOW OFF CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH.              
BULK SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY GENERAL                   
THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                                                  
SMALL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE              
ENERGY EJECT OUT OF CUT OFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH                  
INTO SRN WY/NRN CO. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS PATH IS MUCH FARTHER              
WEST THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN TO ACCOUNT               
FOR THIS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS              
WEEKEND. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE                
CUT OFF LOW IS SLOWLY EXPECTED TO SPIN INTO SERN CO BY EARLY NEXT               
WEEK...KEEPING UPPER DYNAMICS FAR TO OUR WEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER                  
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW                
60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LOOKING AT THE LONGTERM...A CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER COLORADO SUNDAY            
EVENING WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTH                   
CENTRAL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY SCOOTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND                  
SITUATED SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.  THE GFS AND RECENT EURO                
RUNS STAY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH NEXT                     
THURSDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER              
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...SO               
RAISED POPS JUST A BIT THROUGH THE END OF THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH               
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO              
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THROUGH 16/00Z.                                    
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL            
CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA.  LINGERING MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDINESS SHOULD EXIT ALL TAF SITE BY 00Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING             
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL             
WEST OF THE TAF SITES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN              
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE            
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/DERGAN/KURTZ                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
235 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
    THE 6.7 MICRON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH DIGGING TO               
THE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD               
REGION. A MATURING UPPER CYCLONE WAS INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN                
HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND ANOTHER WAS INDICATED OVER               
THE GULF OF ALASKA. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS BEING             
PULLED DOWN BY THE MONTANA VORTEX FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE              
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ANALYSIS             
OF 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND                  
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS             
AND WEST TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND               
RADAR HINTED AT ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL            
AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                   
    FOR TONIGHT...THE RUC AND NAM12 BOTH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER              
VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER THAT AND INCH. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILERS            
AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SUPPORTS THE INCREASE AS               
THE HIGHER VALUES WRAP AROUND FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO                  
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THE MODEL GENERATED PRECIPITATION                 
FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STILL...WITH ENHANCED              
LIFT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CYCLONE...RAINFALL                  
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF                        
POSSIBILITY. THE THREE-HOUR BASIN RUNOFF GUIDANCE ARE AT OR BELOW               
TWO INCHES OVER EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY... SOUTHWEST CUSTER                      
COUNTY...AND ALL OF FRONTIER AND HAYES COUNTIES. FOR THE RED WILLOW             
AND BLACKWOOD CREEKS...THE GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LESS THAN AN INCH. AS            
A RESULT...WE ARE RELUCTANT TO CANCEL OR CURTAIL THE CURRENT FLASH              
FLOOD WATCH... THOUGH LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.                  
     THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF             
HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AGAIN FRIDAY...AND THE MODEL PRODUCED            
QPF SUPPORTS THAT SCENARIO IN THE WEST.                                         
     AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...             
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE WEST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
    BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING...WE WILL KEEP 50-70 PERCENT                   
PROBABILITY IN THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL              
HAVE 35-50 PERCENT THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND 55-65             
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS...               
55-70 PERCENT IS APPROPRIATE THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                 
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                           
    PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...WITH LARGE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND              
CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW DROP THE UPPER LOW A BIT             
FURTHER SOUTH FROM YESTERDAYS RUN...THIS TRACK STILL PLACES AT LEAST            
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A                
FAVORABLE REGION TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION SEEMS MOST             
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKING                  
MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND WEAKENS.                    
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A RETURN            
TO NEAR NORMAL READING FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
    VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH 15/00Z AT TERMINALS KLBF               
AND KVTN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE            
BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS BOUNDARY               
SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE HOW FAST            
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER BEYOND 06Z TO MVFR AT BOTH                  
TERMINALS AS UPGLIDE WINDS HELP TO SATURATE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MVFR            
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS                
THAT WILL INCREASE RAINFALL RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY             
TO DROP LOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN TERMINAL FORECASTS BEYOND             
10Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NEZ038-059-070-071...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPRINGER/TAYLOR/KECK                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
248 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS CONVECTION. SO FAR NOT TOO MUCH GOING              
ON WITH ISOLD CELLS MOVING JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER...WITH ONE                
AREA NEAR MOORHEAD AND THE OTHER NEAR HALLOCK. THE ACTIVITY IN THE              
NORTH WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WHILE THE ACTIVITY IN THE                     
SOUTHERN VALLEY WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. CORES OF THESE STORMS ARE               
VERY SMALL AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL VERY LIMITED AND VERY BRIEF.                 
SFC MAP STILL SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE FROM NEAR                     
HALLOCK TO JUST WEST OF GRAN DFORKS THEN TO NEAR LISBON THEN TO                 
LOW PRESSURE NR HURON SD AMD MITCHELL SD. THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING              
SOUTHWARD THRU ERN MT WITH MOST OF ITS CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH                  
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER SE MT INTO NE WY/NW SD. RUC STILL HANDLING              
POOL OF HIGHER DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE SFC TROUGH               
IN THE VALLEY BETTER THAN 12Z NAM AND GFS.                                      
FOR LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH TROUGH AND WEAK SFC                      
CONVERGENCE IN THE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION AND              
FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE BEST AREA WOULD BE FROM THE IMMEDIATE RED              
RIVER EASTWARD ABOUT 40-50 MILES TO NR ROX-TVF-FSE-FFM AREAS.                   
FARTHER EAST TOWARD BEMIDJI DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN                     
ONTARIO IS FEEDING IN AND TO THE WEST OF THE VALLEY DRIER AIR ON                
BACKSIDE OF TROUGH IS IN PLACE.                                                 
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF SLOWLY RIGHT NEAR TROUGH TONIGHT BY                
06Z...AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD NE WYOMING AND ASSOC SFC LOW              
IN SRN SD CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. ALSO WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO                  
NEAR CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT MAKING SFC CONVERGENCE MINIMAL. SOME                   
CONCEN FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA TREE              
COUNTRY AS LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN THAT AREA ALLOW FOR              
MAX RADITIONAL COOLING AND LESS LOW LEVEL MIXING.                               
FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD NRN               
MINNESOTA PUSHING MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW PT AIRMASS                 
INTO THE AREA. A 500 MB UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE              
UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WHILE                 
THE SFC HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.                  
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING                          
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE ALOFT                
SUPRESSES MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND DEW PTS REMAIN REALTIVELY LOW.             
.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...                                                         
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...SO WILL GO               
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ATTM. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN             
INITIALLY AS THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH               
PLAINS. CORRESPONDING SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE RESULTING IN               
SCATTERED SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED              
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST BY DAY 6 WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE                
HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EAST. LOOKING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC              
BEHIND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE AHEAD             
OF THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN SW FLOW              
ALOFT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BY THE END OF PERIOD.                 
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY MVFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH             
SHOWERS/TSTMS COINCIDING WITH SFC TROF/SOLAR HEATING OVER THE RED               
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS MAY BE ERRATIC IN VCNTY OF STRONGER STORMS.                 
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/HOPKINS                                                                  
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
421 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND A CLOSED                
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL                  
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                       
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUC...NAM-WRF AND GFS FOR THE                  
NEAR TERM FORECAST.                                                             
VORT MAX ACRS S CNTRL INDIANA THIS AFTN WILL DRIFT SE ACRS NRN KY               
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC                         
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH WEAK 700 MB DEFORMATION...WILL MOVE ACRS               
THE NRN CWFA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE                             
FEATURES...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE RESULTED IN                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE SYSTEMS DRIFT OFF TO              
THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES...PCPN SHOULD                   
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACRS THE ERN AND                
SRN ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                     
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER               
SE CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION BY FRIDAY                         
NIGHT...ALLOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM                
THE NORTHWEST. BEFORE THEN...A TANDEM OF VORT LOBES ARE FCST TO                 
ROTATE SE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.                 
DESPITE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                      
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO POP A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                
ACRS THE FAR ERN AND SRN ZONES. THUS...WILL MENTION A SLIGHT                    
CHANCE IN THESE LOCALES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO                
AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AS VORT LOBE MOVES AWAY...THE                     
AIRMASS STABILIZES...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE              
REGION.                                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON                   
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR                
NIGHT.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WILL                    
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
BULK OF THE EXTENDED MODEL GUID HAS SHIFTED TO THE DRIER SOLN FIRST             
INDICATED BY THE 12Z ECMWF ON WED.  THIS HAS REQUIRED SVRL CHANGES              
TO THE PREV LONG TERM FCST...MAINLY REMOVING A GOOD DEAL OF PCPN                
CHANCES AND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.                                 
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLO PERSISTS ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS OH VLY WILL             
REMAIN STUCK BTWN PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND               
STAGNANT UPR LO CUTOFF FROM MEAN FLO OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES/HIGH                
PLAINS. WRN ATLC UPR RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH THRU THE PERIOD               
INTO THE SE CONUS AND OH/TN VLYS BY MIDWEEK.  SFC HI PRES WILL                  
REMAIN ACRS THE REGION SUN.  MID LVL S/WV SWINGING AROUND BASE OF               
ERN CANADA TROF WILL PASS THRU OH VLY SUN AFTN BUT AM ONLY EXPECTING            
AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LVL CLOUDS WITH FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN                  
PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THRU THE GRT LKS AND INTO THE               
REGION TUES AS UPR TROF RELOADS AND AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHEAST.                 
FRONT LOOKS ESPECIALLY STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AS ADJUSTMENT IN                  
OVERALL PATTERN DESCRIBED ABV ESSENTIALLY WILL TAKE AWAY ANY                    
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OF GULF MOISTURE.  WILL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS              
FOR TUES INTO ERLY WED HOWEVER WITH FRNTL BNDRY INVOF REGION. DRY WX            
EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HI PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT              
ESTABLISH ACRS THE OH VLY.                                                      
MEX GUID CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH AFTN HIGHS...AND IS                      
SUGGESTIVE OF AFTN TEMPS NEAR 90 DEG BY TUES/WED. UNDERCUT GUID                 
TEMPS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE             
SUN/MON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY M80S BEYOND. LOWS WILL LARGELY REMAIN              
IN THE L/M60S THRU THE PERIOD.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THIS                 
AFTN WILL BE THE LARGEST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD AS AN               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH                
PREVAILING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CMH AND LCK              
TO ACCOUNT FOR SCTD TSRA WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON                 
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS ALSO ACCOUNTS FOR THE MORE                      
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING SEWD FROM CNTRL INDIANA. VCTS EXPECTED              
AT CMH AND LCK AS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN.                       
CONVECTION FOR THE MAJORITY SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT OF THE TERMINALS              
BY 00Z.                                                                         
OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM EVENING CONVECTION AND              
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SOME MVFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE                  
EXCEPT LCK/CMH. WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS DURING EARLY MORNING HRS                 
WITH IFR VSBYS AT LUK.                                                          
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...WOODRUM                                                              
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