FXUS04 KWBC 071841
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
140 PM EST SUN NOV 07 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 09/0000 UTC THRU NOV 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
...DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES REGION...

ARCTIC AIR BEING USHERED IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LIFTING
OUT ST LAWRENCE RIV VLY SFC LO WILL RESULT IN GNLY LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE VERY CD AIR ALOFT.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ACTVTY ALONG THE SERN SHORE OF LK ONTARIO.

...PACIFIC NW...

ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH BRINGING A
FRONTAL BAND AND THE ASOCTD ONSHORE FLOW  SWD THRU BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO IMPACT THE EXTRM PACIFIC NW BY THE END OF THE PD. 
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS INDC MORE RIDGING OVR THE
PACIFIC NW IN ASOCTN WITH A MORE CLOSED LOOKING UPPER LO OFF
THE COAST. LEANED STRONGLY TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO HERE.

...SWRN U.S...

MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE INDCTG THAT THE
STG DYNAMIC LIFT ASOCTD WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER VORTEX NOW
OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHWRS ACROSS
THE REGION.   DEEP-LAYERED MSTR ASOCTD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE EVENT AS FVBL DIV
ALOFT AIDS THE LIFTING PROCESS.   LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS
FOR DETAILS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE 1200 UTC ETA AND GFS MASS
FIELD FCSTS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAD GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THEIR PRIOR RESPECTIVE RUNS.
 
DAY 2...


...WEST COAST...

GFS MAINTAINS GOOD CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUES TO AGREE WELL
WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN IN KEEPING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN OFFSHORE THIS PD ALONG THE WEST COAST AS UPR LOW CLOSES
OFF WELL WEST OF THE OR/NRN CA COAST.  ETA IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND DEFINITE OUTLIER SOLN AT THIS POINT IN SPREADING
BAROCLINIC BAND MSTR/PCPN SEWD ALONG THE NW PAC COAST...AND
GIVEN ITS LESS THAN IDEAL INITIALIZATION ACRS THE PAC NW/GULF OF
AK...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

...SRN GT BASIN EWD INTO THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES...

UPR TROF OVER SRN CA GETS EJECTED NEWD THIS PD IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM S/WV ENERGY APCHG THE ERN PAC.  MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING GOES..THOUGH
DIFFERENCE REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF VARIOUS S/WV IMPULSES
ROTATING ABOUT THE CENTER..WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR VARIABILITY
IN MODEL QPFS.    EARLY ON..IT WOULD APPEAR SOME WEAK
DEFORMATION BAND WOULD DVLP NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER
OVER NV..HOWEVER THE CAN..UKMET..AND GFS ALL SWING A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF S/WV ENERGY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF INTO THE
4 CORNERS REGION BY TUE MRNG.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACRS THE SAN JUANS OF SW CO AND PERHAPS THE UNITA MTNS OF NE UT
WHERE SOME GREATER THAN .50 LIQUID AMOUNTS APPEAR REASONABLE.  
ELSEWHERE...XPCT PCPN AMTS TO BE MORE LGT/MDT.

ELSEWHERE...
INCREASING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG TAIL END OF FRONT MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SOME MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
EAST FL COAST.   LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE OVER
THE ERN LAKES AS UPR TROF SLOWLY PUSHES ACRS ERN CAN AND HI
PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION RELAXING SFC GRADIENT.  

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 479665 477658 472651 468653 462659 459669 456680 452693 
      443704 440707 437712 441725 440731 438736 432742 426744 
      420742 418747 420756 424770 424775 419781 413789 410793 
      409799 411806 412814 416815 419814 421814 422816 429822 
      437827 444835 447841 448851 451857 455859 459861 463866 
      465870 468878 471875 472871 472864 473855 471847 467838 
      466835 459825 456821 453812 450805 448796 447788 445780 
      442773 441764 442759 446754 450745 455733 460724 464717 
      468712 473701 477691 479676 479665 
 0.01 541202 540197 538192 534185 531175 528169 522161 517156 
      511151 503147 500149 500152 502156 505159 496164 490166 
      488169 488172 490175 494185 494194 499200 502202 504201 
      507202 509207 513213 517220 521223 525227 529229 534228 
 0.01 523257 520251 517243 515236 513228 509223 505216 503210 
      501207 498204 488211 485215 486220 487228 485232 483233 
      476233 472236 472241 478257 480263 482269 486275 492280 
      496285 503290 509288 513285 516283 
 0.01 438108 438102 434096 431094 429093 427095 427099 422103 
      417105 415103 414101 412095 409092 406092 401097 398095 
      397092 396086 397080 397075 396070 391066 384068 381063 
      376061 369059 362061 360062 359065 360067 355080 350078 
      347081 344082 338079 330079 328082 327086 324092 320094 
      315097 312101 308114 304119 302125 303130 307135 315136 
      319139 322143 326147 334149 340152 341157 336157 331155 
      323155 320156 317164 319170 323177 330183 338194 342205 
      346209 352214 355216 362217 364214 365210 409214 412210 
      414205 414200 413193 417186 420180 422170 420164 422159 
      423150 423143 424135 430125 435116 438108 
 0.01 267799 267795 265793 264793 261793 259793 256794 254796 
      252798 250799 249800 248803 247804 248805 250806 252806 
      254805 257804 259803 262802 264801 266799 267799 
 0.25 536216 538211 537206 536201 533195 530189 527184 524181 
      518178 512178 510180 510184 511189 514195 516200 519205 
      521211 526215 532218 536216 
 0.25 517273 519264 518256 513245 512237 509231 506229 503224 
      499218 496217 493221 492225 492230 492234 490238 487239 
      483245 482249 483254 487264 490270 493276 501282 507283 
      510281 517273 
 0.25 432765 432761 430759 429763 431766 432766 432765 
 0.25 400185 403175 403169 402165 400158 400153 401150 402147 
      400144 395139 390133 391126 397124 402117 401113 397111 
      391113 388114 383113 377110 366103 361099 355100 349098 
      344093 339090 335091 333095 329099 324104 320118 322122 
      328125 336138 345147 352159 356163 360170 362177 360183 
      362188 367193 372197 377200 386203 392202 397196 400185 
 0.25 341178 342174 342171 341168 341167 339164 336164 334163 
      331162 328161 327162 325162 323164 323168 324169 327171 
      329172 330172 332174 335176 336177 337179 340179 341178 
 0.50 536211 535206 534202 532200 531197 529194 529193 526189 
      524188 523187 521185 518186 516190 517192 518196 519198 
      520201 521205 523207 524208 527210 530212 532214 536211 
      536211 
 0.50 516267 517262 515255 511243 509236 506232 502229 498223 
      496224 494226 494232 494240 493242 490241 487243 485250 
      487260 494272 496275 502279 504280 508279 511275 516267 
 0.50 391194 393186 393176 392170 388164 385161 384157 385153 
      393146 390142 384138 381134 381131 382126 382123 379120 
      375120 371119 367116 363114 356112 351108 343099 340096 
      337098 335100 331104 330107 330112 333117 335123 337129 
      339134 347142 352152 366171 367176 366181 367186 370190 
      375195 379196 385197 391194 
 1.00 513266 513263 512256 510249 507240 504236 500233 498235 
      498239 499242 502252 499252 495249 490248 489254 490259 
      495268 500274 502276 506273 507268 513266 
 1.00 382189 382187 382185 380183 377181 374180 373183 374185 
      376188 379189 382189 382189 
 1.00 374169 376166 375162 374159 374158 372154 371153 371151 
      369147 368147 366147 363148 362149 360152 360153 360154 
      360156 362159 363160 365162 367164 367165 370168 373170 
      374169 
 1.00 354120 353117 350113 347110 343106 340109 340113 342119 
      341126 345130 347132 349130 348127 348123 351121 354120 
 1.50 509255 509254 508249 507247 506244 505241 503243 504246 
      505248 506252 509255 509255 
 1.50 501270 501266 501265 499260 497256 495254 494253 492253 
      491257 493261 493263 495265 498268 500270 501270  
 
24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 541202 539186 536183 534179 531171 526166 519168 514166 
      509160 502164 495164 493166 492171 494176 500182 501187 
      500192 496199 487202 484205 482209 482213 485218 487219 
      487225 484227 478226 473228 466230 463230 455231 450230 
      442228 438228 435229 432229 428231 423230 418232 412232 
      402236 395237 388238 382240 377243 369247 359252 356261 
      355265 356269 362273 370275 382279 388278 396280 400279 
      407280 411279 415280 422282 432285 440289 444292 448297 
      451300 456303 461301 465296 469289 474290 478293 483295 
      489290 494282 497278 502281 505283 507284 507279 507268 
      511269 515272 518270 519268 520263 520255 523246 527243 
      528239 527227 538213 
 0.01 458707 456704 449705 444708 441710 439712 438717 440720 
      445722 445728 444731 447734 450733 452729 453724 455719 
      456713 458707 
 0.01 449817 448809 446805 442802 438798 434794 432800 431806 
      430813 429818 432821 438821 442820 447821 449817 
 0.01 438775 439770 438766 437763 436759 434755 433752 430750 
      429750 427751 424752 424753 424757 425761 425765 425766 
      425770 425774 426777 429780 430781 432783 434784 436781 
      437780 438776 438775 
 0.01 426794 426790 423788 420791 419794 418794 416796 415796 
      413796 410796 409799 411801 412802 415803 418802 418803 
      421803 424801 424799 425796 426794 
 0.01 455080 454070 453064 447060 440057 432056 425055 418056 
      410053 401048 398046 396045 392050 389054 383050 377047 
      369048 359052 353057 350062 347069 347071 343074 335072 
      330071 324071 321075 319079 320084 322090 327095 330100 
      333106 336112 335117 336120 340123 348133 350135 354135 
      359135 361140 361149 368177 366179 361181 355181 350178 
      347173 343170 341177 344184 349187 355187 361189 367193 
      372198 376202 380203 392206 397208 401203 406197 411191 
      414188 419186 421185 423182 423179 422171 420167 416165 
      411164 410158 412155 415146 420135 429124 432119 438116 
      446116 449111 450105 447095 444088 451085 455080 
 0.01 371025 371022 368020 362022 360023 354027 351028 349030 
      345034 346038 352037 355036 360035 363033 368029 371025 
 0.01 309811 306807 302804 294797 285794 275791 265788 263788 
      260791 256794 253799 252801 253804 261808 270811 280816 
      285817 288819 293823 299821 308812 309811 
 0.01 283969 283962 279962 273964 271964 265967 260969 259972 
      263975 267976 270977 275976 277975 281972 283969 
 0.25 520196 522192 522187 521186 518184 515185 514190 517194 
      518196 519197 520196 
 0.25 509250 510245 510239 509235 506232 503226 502222 499223 
      497229 497236 498246 495246 491243 488240 484239 478236 
      474237 472241 473243 478248 482253 484259 484270 484274 
      486273 491272 497269 500263 501257 501252 506252 509250 
 0.25 449255 450250 448244 442240 436239 431239 427241 418244 
      409245 402247 400250 401253 404256 409259 414262 426264 
      435265 440265 444263 447259 449255 
 0.25 432096 432092 434088 435080 435076 433073 430072 424072 
      422076 422084 424090 427096 429100 426103 423107 426109 
      430108 431104 430100 432096 
 0.25 418119 417115 414109 409096 407093 405086 404080 404076 
      406068 400065 387066 384068 381066 377064 367061 364063 
      363065 363068 367071 369079 367084 362087 361090 363094 
      372100 377103 383101 403098 404102 402106 399105 397105 
      395109 388114 384119 385123 388122 393120 398120 406121 
      414122 418119 
 0.25 404182 404178 401173 399169 393165 391164 387164 384167 
      385171 386177 389182 391185 397187 401185 404182 
 0.25 297809 296808 294807 292806 289807 288806 286804 285804 
      282803 280804 279807 281808 283808 284809 287809 289809 
      290810 292811 294812 296811 297809 
 0.50 496259 496258 495254 494252 491250 489249 486251 488255 
      488256 489261 489263 492263 493263 496260 496259 
 0.50 433258 438257 441253 441248 436245 429246 421248 421253 
      422255 424256 427256 430257 433257 433258 
 0.50 410114 410110 409106 406108 405110 403112 402113 403115 
      406116 409116 410114 
 0.50 391090 389087 385083 382079 381075 378070 375069 372072 
      373079 372086 371090 374093 376097 378099 380098 383095 
      387094 391090  
 
$$