AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
308 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION            
ALONG WITH THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN               
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.                                                               
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO            
INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH              
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND               
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE MOVING                
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ATTM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING             
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH            
ATTM. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE PLAINS LAST                
NIGHT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OF THE RATON MESA ACROSS                        
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH                     
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH                 
1-3MB PRESSURE RISES BEING NOTED ATTM.                                          
TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS CATCHING UP WITH SECONDARY SURGE HELPING TO             
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ATTM ALONG WITH                   
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STORMS FIRING ALONG              
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND                  
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ATTM. HAVE KEPT BEST POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR                
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING                 
CAPES BETWEEN 400-1200 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND                
COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH DIME SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUST              
TO AROUND 50 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. MODELS ALSO                   
INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN                   
COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR              
CLOUDS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS                  
BY SUNRISE. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UVV AS              
EASTERN UTAH DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE KEPT                 
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.                                   
WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS TO BE A COOL AND STABLE DAY ACROSS MOST                 
OF EASTERN COLORADO AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS KEEPS MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ACROSS THE WEST...ANOTHER MINOR DISTURBANCE            
PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION IN DEVELOPING WEAK NORTHWEST                  
FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS                  
REGION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...SHOULD                 
SEE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT                
SCATTERED POPS INTACT ACROSS THE MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS              
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY TO                 
PRESERVE INTEROFFICE CONSISTENCY...AS BELIEVE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR            
ANY PRECIP. -MW                                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THU THROUGH TUE)                                                               
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS               
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEP AVERAGES.                            
THU THROUGH TUE...ENSEMBLE DATA...INCLUDING ECMWF AND DGEX...HAS A              
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/AZ THROUGH                 
THE PERIOD. THERE ARE HINTS OF MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS                      
DRYING...SO THE MAIN CHANCE FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE OVER THE                        
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. WITH NE-                  
NLY STEERING CURRENTS...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE              
OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO PLAINS.                    
ALSO...A RELATIVE DRY SLOT OVER EXTREME ERN CO SHOULD KEEP                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW OR NIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE              
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12Z/28 MEX MOS                 
HAS PUB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. METZE             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN          
MTS AND FAR SE PLAINS THIS EVENING...AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR             
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. SECONDARY SURGE WILL ALLOW FOR             
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TO CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN                       
COLORADO...INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB...OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO              
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
308 PM MDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.                             
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS             
THE REGION WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE FOUR                
CORNERS REGION MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO ATTM. AT THE              
SFC...LEE TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH             
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST             
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING ATTM.                   
TONIGHT...POTENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS EXTREME SW COLORADO PROGGED TO TO            
LIFT INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS              
NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH              
WAVE...HAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                        
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THIS                     
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEYS            
THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER AIR CHARTS                   
INDICATING PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS THE FOUR             
CORNERS REGION TODAY...OWNING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAINFALL WITH STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH WITH STEERING            
FLOW BETWEEN 20-25KTS...ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING TO REMAIN                  
LIMITED. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND                  
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                
INDICATING INVERTED V PROFILES...WITH MORE WIND THAN RAIN EXPECTED.             
THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT DOES HOWEVER PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW            
STRONGER STORMS...WITH HAIL LESS THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS             
TO NEAR 50 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. LOWERING PRESSURES IN ADVANCE OF               
WAVE SHOULD PUSH LEE TROUGH OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALLOWING              
FOR FRONT TO SURGE TO NEAR THE PALMER DVD BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN                  
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH             
SOME WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE...AND POSSIBLE                       
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...HAVE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS              
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.                                                 
TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING             
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH DEVELOPING             
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS WITHIN            
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH MODELS INDICATING WEAK PV LOBE MOVING            
ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION...AND HAVE GONE WITH             
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND            
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS             
THE AREA...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW             
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. -MW                                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WED THROUGH MON)                                                               
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WED THROUGH FRI...                                    
WED THROUGH FRI...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES              
TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW ON WED AND ANCHORS ITSELF THERE                     
THROUGH THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CNTRL                   
ROCKIES WILL BE IN THE NERN/E CNTRL QUADRANT OF THE UPPER                       
HIGH...SO COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFING.                 
LIKELY COULD SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE                 
HIGH SENDING RE-ENFORCING WAVES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND MESOSCALE               
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...UNLESS MUCH DRIER AIR                 
ADVECTS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...WHICH IS POSSIBLE BY               
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. I HAVE INCREASED POPS/WX TO HIGH CHANCE FOR               
THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WED/THU. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO              
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS(LESS THAN 10KTS) AND H7-H5              
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5-7 G/KG(MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/                 
I-25 CORRIDOR). ALWAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROCK AND MUD SLIDES GIVEN              
STEADY...ALMOST WIDESPREAD...MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT             
IS POSSIBLE FOR TOO MUCH SURFACE-BASED STABILITY ACROSS THE SERN                
CO PLAINS IF STRATUS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT TSTMS COULD                  
DEVELOP OVER OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS.                
SAT THROUGH MON...ENSEMBLE DATA...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...HAVE THE                
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT                 
SW/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS                   
KEEPS THE CNTRL ROCKIES IN THE NW-NLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN THREAT               
FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE                  
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE STEERING CURRENTS BEING NLY...NOT SURE HOW                  
MUCH ACTIVITY WOULD GET INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO PLAINS.              
WILL KEEP LOW POPS/WX FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN/EVE.                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY                 
SEP. METZE                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH                
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTORMS OVR THE CONTDVD            
AND WRN MTN RANGES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH                   
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE                
WITH THESE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CO TONIGHT            
AND THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING TO              
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN PLAINS. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT                  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/MVFR                
CIGS OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.PUBLIC UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING               
WITH SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT OUR NORTHERN-MOST                 
GEORGIA ZONES WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY             
TO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1000/500 MB MEAN LAYER HIGH IS CURRENTLY               
POSITIONED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO                   
PRESS WESTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                
HOLD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC                          
MOISTURE/GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL FOCUS OVER OUR GEORGIA ZONES TODAY...           
THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF JAX              
CWA. ACROSS OUR FLORIDA ZONES...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY             
FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHIFTING            
WEST...CREATING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEABREEZE-INDUCED                 
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN POPS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS            
OUR FLORIDA ZONES.                                                              
12Z KJAX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE QUITE MOIST CONDITIONS WITH             
PWAT OF 2 INCHES. AFTER MODIFYING SOUNDING USING MOD PARCEL OF                  
92/73...A CAPE VALUE OF 3500 J/KG WAS REALIZED (VERY UNSTABLE).                 
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE           
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF WET MICRO-BURSTS AND FREQUENT           
CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK STEERING FLOW TO THE            
SOUTH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE CONCERNS ARE           
ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN THE MIAHWOJAX PRODUCT. HAIL CONCERN IS QUITE            
MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVEL/WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT ABOVE 13 KFT.            
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CELLS OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...             
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE...FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS GIVEN              
STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.                         
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO FRESHEN 1ST PERIOD ZONES...OTHERWISE PACKAGE                 
APPEARS ON TRACK.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHES OF FOG ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH VFR                     
CONDITIONS ONGOING (OR QUICKLY ESTABLISHING BY 13Z). CONVECTION                 
WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING AROUND 16Z DUE            
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO THE NORTH             
WITH CONVECTION LIKELY ESTABLISHING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY 18Z.            
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FULLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 00-01Z. WEAK PRESSURE            
PATTERN WILL YET AGAIN PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...REGIONAL OBS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOCAL                
WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA                    
WATERS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. SEAS                    
CONTINUE IN A 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL. NOT                
MUCH CHANGE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON              
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...SFC DATA SHOWS WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA              
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN LAYER RIDGE FROM              
SFC TO 500 MB IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUAL LAPS ANALYSIS                   
INDICATES MEAN HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF FLAGLER COUNTY. LLVL           
WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE S WITH RADAR INDICATING SCT CONVECTION                 
OFFSHORE IN GA WATERS AND SC WATERS CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY. FRONT WAS POISED FROM OFF THE NC COAST TO SRN SC INTO GA              
WHERE IT BECAME MORE DIFFUSE. ANTICIPATE THAT AS CLOUD DEBRIS                   
CONTINUES TO THIN THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS              
AND RIDGING ALOFT.                                                              
.SHORT TERM...MODELS IN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE                
WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SWD WITH BEST MOISTURE INDICATED OVER GA ZONES.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50% THERE TODAY AND AROUND 30-40% FL ZONES. PWATS            
STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES SO WITH WEAK WINDS HEAVY RAINFALL IS             
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.                                                      
TONIGHT...GIVEN MOSTLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SEE MOST             
CONVECTION DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR OVER PORTIONS OF SE              
GA WHERE THE FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO NE CWA AREA. PATCHY FOG              
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRONT...POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE...AND RIDGE             
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SSW INTO THE FL ZONES WITH                 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST POPS OVER SRN ZONES AND LOW END              
CHANCE OVER GA ZONES. HAVE PLACED 60% OVER SE ZONES AND 40-50% REST             
OF FL ZONES. AS FRONT CONTS TO SHIFT SSW CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE             
IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN              
AND NRN ZONES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING            
WITH TIME WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE.              
PLANNING ON ONLY 20% OVER W AND S ZONES. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF THE SE            
U.S. COAST WILL DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE                 
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.                                            
THURSDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES            
TO NEAR 20-30%. HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.            
BEST CHANCES WILL BE INLAND CLOSER TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.                  
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-MONDAY). UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER            
THE SE U.S. WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ILL-DEFINED FROM NEAR WRN             
FL PANHANDLE WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY BE TO CENTRAL FL. BEST                 
MOISTURE WILL BE W AND S OF THE CWA. BY SATURDAY-MONDAY...WEAKER MID            
LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WLY FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW                   
PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE INTO THE REGION AGAIN.             
DUE TO 500 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CWA...IMPULSES ALSO SHOULD AID                 
CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS POPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY            
INCREASE BUT WILL CAP AT 40% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL             
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPPE                                                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
331 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SFC DATA SHOWS WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN LAYER RIDGE FROM SFC              
TO 500 MB IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUAL LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES             
MEAN HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF FLAGLER COUNTY. LLVL WINDS ARE           
LIGHT FROM THE S WITH RADAR INDICATING SCT CONVECTION OFFSHORE IN GA            
WATERS AND SC WATERS CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WAS             
POISED FROM OFF THE NC COAST TO SRN SC INTO GA WHERE IT BECAME MORE             
DIFFUSE. ANTICIPATE THAT AS CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO THIN THAT                 
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND RIDGING ALOFT.                  
.SHORT TERM...MODELS IN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE                
WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SWD WITH BEST MOISTURE INDICATED OVER GA ZONES.             
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50% THERE TODAY AND AROUND 30-40% FL ZONES. PWATS            
STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES SO WITH WEAK WINDS HEAVY RAINFALL IS             
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.                                                      
TONIGHT...GIVEN MOSTLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SEE MOST             
CONVECTION DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR OVER PORTIONS OF SE              
GA WHERE THE FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO NE CWA AREA. PATCHY FOG              
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRONT...POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE...AND RIDGE             
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SSW INTO THE FL ZONES WITH                 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST POPS OVER SRN ZONES AND LOW END              
CHANCE OVER GA ZONES. HAVE PLACED 60% OVER SE ZONES AND 40-50% REST             
OF FL ZONES. AS FRONT CONTS TO SHIFT SSW CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE             
IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN              
AND NRN ZONES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING            
WITH TIME WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE.              
PLANNING ON ONLY 20% OVER W AND S ZONES. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF THE SE            
U.S. COAST WILL DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE                 
POSSIBLE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.                                            
THURSDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES            
TO NEAR 20-30%. HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.            
BEST CHANCES WILL BE INLAND CLOSER TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.                  
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-MONDAY). UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER            
THE SE U.S. WITH THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT ILL-DEFINED FROM NEAR WRN             
FL PANHANDLE WHERE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY BE TO CENTRAL FL. BEST                 
MOISTURE WILL BE W AND S OF THE CWA. BY SATURDAY-MONDAY...WEAKER MID            
LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WLY FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW                   
PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE INTO THE REGION AGAIN.             
DUE TO 500 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CWA...IMPULSES ALSO SHOULD AID                 
CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS POPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY            
INCREASE BUT WILL CAP AT 40% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL             
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO MVFR THIS MORNING AT JAX AND CRG               
AND IFR AT GNV WHICH ALL EXPERIENCED SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FROM YSTDYS            
CONVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN/EVENING TSRA IS EXPECTED TODAY                
WITH TEMPO GROUPS HIGHLIGHTING CONVECTION BETWEEN 19-23Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT SSE FLOW WILL BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTN WITH WINDS             
10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-3 FT WITH AROUND A 1.6-2 FT             
SWELL PER BUOYS 41008 AND 41009. A WEAK NNE SURGE IS EXPECTED WED A             
FRONT SLIDES SW OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY WINDS 15-20 KTS                     
POSSIBLE...BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. ELY FLOW 10 KTS AND                
SEAS 2-3 FT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THU-SAT AS WEAK FRONT LINGERS                
OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  91  71  91  70 /  50  40  30  10                                           
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  50  40  30  10                                           
JAX  92  73  91  72 /  40  40  40  10                                           
SGJ  89  75  88  73 /  30  30  50  10                                           
GNV  92  73  92  71 /  40  30  50  20                                           
OCF  93  73  93  72 /  40  20  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ENYEDI                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
759 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE               
CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE WED. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM                 
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN WELL                 
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THU. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH                
THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING S OF THE REGION BY                 
SUN. HIGH PRES MOVES BACK IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
WEAK FNTL BNDRY STILL LINGERING OVER MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE                 
CWFA...ALONG AN APPROXIMATE KCHS-KJYL LINE CURRENTLY...BUT STILL                
WOBBLING N AND S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE ALONG WITH WEAK UPR               
LVL STEERING AND DEEP MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR FLOODING RAINS IN FAR                
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS MRNG. MEANWHILE...WELL S OF THE                   
BNDRY SKIES REMAINED PTLY CLDY. AS THE PRECIP DIMINISHED THIS                   
MRNG...STRATIFORM CLOUDS LINGERED THROUGH NOON BUT HAVE SINCE                   
TRANSITIONED INTO PTLY CLDY CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AS HAS BEEN THE                   
DIURNAL TREND. CU CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN THE REST OF THE               
CWFA THIS AFTN...SO WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH               
CONVECTIVE LIFT...SCT SHWRS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST              
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST FOCUS WOULD BE FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE              
CWFA WHERE THE ATMOS REMAINS FAIRLY UNTAPPED AND BOTH RUC/M-ETA                 
SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. SEABREEZE IS FINALLY MAKING                    
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE                
ENTIRE CWFA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER                 
AND TREND LOWER GOING N. GREATEST HAZRADS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY                  
FLOODING RAINS AND DOWNBURST WIND SIGNATURES. BY LATE EVE...ONLY                
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.                 
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT FOG FORMATION BUT AM NOT QUITE                      
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND               
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED UNDER THE NIGHTLY INVERSION.                  
WILL LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR WHERE RAIN OCCURS AND DETERMINE ITS                  
INCLUSION THEN. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH MIN TEMPS IN              
THE LOW TO MID 70S.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                             
A TRICKY FCST BEGINS TMRW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE              
CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE DISSIPATING FNTL BNDRY. BOTH THE NAM AND               
GFS IDENTIFY IT...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERING SOLNS AS TO EXACTLY               
WHERE IT WILL GO BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS IT REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR               
SENSIBLE WX IN THIS AREA TMRW AND TMRW NIGHT...THE LOW PRES AREA                
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AROUND IT AND INTO THIS REGION ALONG WITH                  
HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE N...THUS LOWERING CHCS FOR PRECIP.                 
PRECIP CHCS WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE                 
CWFA WHICH WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO DEEP MOISTURE... UNSTABLE                   
AIR...AND LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE DISSIPATING FNTL BNDRY ALONG                 
WITH THE SEABREEZE. FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LOOK TO REMAIN                 
DRY AND STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP MENTION. THIS STABLE AIR                
WILL ENVELOP THE ENTIRE CWFA TMRW NIGHT...THUS A DRY FCST IS IN                 
PLACE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER               
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW...PARTICULARLY FOR NRN                   
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BUT WILL LOOK FOR TEMPS AROUND THE 90                    
DEGREE MARK AGAIN WITH LOW TEMPS TMRW NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW                       
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THU-FRI. THE CYCLONIC FLOW                
AROUND THE LOW WILL DRAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID-LVL DRY AIR SOUTH               
FROM NC AND THE MID-ATLC INTO THE FCST AREA THU AND PERSIST INTO                
FRI. THIS WILL SEVERELY CURTAIL THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BOTH                   
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE                    
PENETRATION SHOULD OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY EACH AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE                
SFC BASED INSTABILITY... ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD STILL FIRE               
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE THUS WL GO WITH SLGT CHANCE POPS THU                    
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS THEN LIMIT SLGT POPS TO INTERIOR SE GA                 
FRI AFTN AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRES                
BEGINS TO WEDGE IN FROM THE N. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FAR              
SRN SC LTE FRI MORNING AND SHOULD CLR SE GA AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER              
BY SUNRISE SAT BEFORE BECOMING Q-STNRY ACROSS NORTHERN FL SAT NGT-              
SUN. PCPN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCR TO MORE SEASONAL LVLS SUN INTO               
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER LOW- LVL MOISTURE RETURNS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
SKIES ARE CLEARING NEAR THE CHS TERMINAL WHILE RAIN IS POSSIBLE                 
OVER THE SAV EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH                    
TOWARDS THE SAV TERMINAL CURRENTLY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND                
VICINITY THUNDER AS A SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES PUSHING                
SOUTH. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.                     
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...A TEMPO MVFR PERIOD IS                     
POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWERING VSBYS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LVL AIR              
TO PUSH INTO THE CHS TERMINAL QUICKLY AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST                    
TONIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CONDITIONS WARRANT TEMPO MVFR                  
CONDITIONS FROM 8 TO 12 Z TOMORROW MORNING. IT APPEARS THE SAV                  
TERMINAL WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE SAME CONDITIONS...GIVEN RAINFALL                
IN THE NEXT HOUR AND SOME MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH NOT AS                       
SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT WAS OR WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AT THE CHS                    
TERMINAL...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED FROM 9Z T0 12Z                 
TOMORROW MORNING AT THE SAV TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM WINDS               
FORECASTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.                                         
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE NORTH AT               
SUNRISE AND SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT              
CB IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IS AMPLE TO SUPPORT                      
CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA.                                                     
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH                 
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND                
PRE-DAWN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM              
THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY GIVING MORE PROLONGED MVFR TO                
IFR CONDS IN RAIN/TSTMS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK SFC FNTL BNDRY WILL WOBBLE OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE                  
MARINE AREA THROUGH TNGT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TMRW...BUT                    
NEARLY NIL PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECTS WILL COME OF IT. THUS... WILL              
LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT FOR TNGT.                      
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS                  
LATE TNGT INTO TMRW AND MEANDER OFF THE COAST THROUGH TMRW NIGHT.               
NOT MANY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ATTM...SO WILL KEEP              
WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT BUT SEAS MAY RISE TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM              
OF SHORE AND TO 4 FT IN THE GA OUTER WATERS TMRW INTO TMRW NIGHT.               
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE NO MARINE CONCERNS THU-               
FRI AS FAIRLY LGT WNDS AND LOW SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE A                
FAIRLY HEALTHY PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NGT-              
SUN AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO WEDGE IN BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD              
FRONT. WL CAP WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS A 3-5 FT FOR NOW...BUT                 
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR PSBL SCA                       
CONDITIONS OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DPB                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF                
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY WED. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM                
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST TODAY AND DRIFT S TONIGHT BUT REMAIN              
WELL OFF THE COAST THROUGH THU. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH                   
THROUGH THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING S OF THE                   
REGION BY SUN. HIGH PRES MOVES BACK IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SWD MOVG FNTL BNDRY ACTING WITH MINUTE VORT MAXES AND DEEPLY                    
MOIST AIR /PWATS OVER 2.3 INCHES/ WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE               
COLUMN ALL COMBINED TO CREATE THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS RAIN              
AREA SHIFTS E AND LESSENS PER KCLX RADAR AND IR SAT                             
IMAGERY...FOCUS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO THE SRN HALF OF              
THE CWFA WHICH HAS BEEN PTLY CLDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MRNG. WITH                
THE BNDRY SETTLING OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE CWFA...S OF THE                   
BNDRY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE PER THE RUC/M-ETA MODELS AND                
PWATS ARE NEARLY 2.25 INCHES. MODIFIED 12Z KCHS SOUNDING SHOWS                  
CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH 0-3KM CAPE OF 215 J/KG...SO THIS                       
INSTABILITY WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS               
THAT FORM TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY FLOODING RAIN AND                      
DOWNBURST WIND SIGNATURES. HAVE MAINTAINED 40/50 POPS S AND KEPT                
30/40 POPS N THROUGH THE AFTN.                                                  
WITH A GOOD SHIELD OF CLOUDS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE               
CWFA...HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS JUST A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT                
UPR 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD. SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE IN                 
THE 90-92 DEGREE RANGE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVE AND              
SLOWLY DRIFT S THROUGH WED. DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW               
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING OUR RAIN                   
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SC ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN               
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGHS WED WILL TOP OUT                
AROUND 90 DEG AGAIN...BUT SOME MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE PREVIOUS                 
PACKAGE AS THE TREND LOOKS SIMILAR. POPS LOOK LOWEST ON THURSDAY                
AND FRIDAY WITH BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN...THEN POPS RAISING BACK                  
TOWARDS CLIMO AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND DEEP MOISTURE               
AGAIN INCREASES. TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TENDENCY OF MODELS NOW TO DEVELOP A             
WEAK LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE FRONT SAGGING THROUGH THE               
AREA WED NGT. BOTH GFS AND NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE              
AT THIS POINT TO HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT OVER LAND AREAS...AND WITH MID             
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST...I THINK THAT SOLUTION IS             
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WHICH CAN ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL             
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN                 
THE TIMING HAVE JUST MENTION OF CB AT KCHS AT THIS TIME. MODELS                 
INDICATE THAT KSAV HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER/TSTM                  
THAN KCHS...THUS HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT 21Z. WILL CONTINUE TO                  
MONITOR AND WILL AMEND WHEN RADAR TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.                  
MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP AT BOTH AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AS GOOD LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS                
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG.                                          
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH                 
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND                
PRE-DAWN SHALLOW GROUND FOG.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK SFC TROF/BNDRY WILL LINGER JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH                  
TODAY AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENTS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALSO...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO               
DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST TODAY AND DRIFT S THROUGH WED BUT REMAIN               
WELL OFFSHORE. THUS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE                     
CRITERIA THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND               
2-3 FT ACROSS THE 20-60 NM LEG OF THE GA WATERS.                                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER SEASONABLY TAME WINDS AND              
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN                 
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE               
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK LOW SPINS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.                
FOR NOW...FORECAST KEEPS WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS BELOW                      
CRITERIA THAT WOULD REQUIRE HEADLINES...BUT IF THE LOW GETS A BIT               
STRONGER...WE MAY REACH INTO SCEC IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATER               
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REV                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                               
LATEST SFC MAP INDICATING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON                  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL IL. BEST RETURN FLOW WELL WEST AND NORTH              
OF OUR AREA AND SHOULD STAY THERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RUC FCST               
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING NEARLY AS MUCH LOW LVL MOISTURE LATE TNT               
AS WAS THE CASE YSTDY AT THIS TIME...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                
SHALLOW GROUND FOG MUCH LESS THAN LAST NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME                   
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS...FCST IN GREAT                  
SHAPE. NO EVENING UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                              
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC              
WINDS TO VEER INTO THE SE MONDAY MORNING. LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION                
PATTERN ACRS ERN IOWA MAY PRODUCE SOME SCT CONVECTION TOWARDS MRNG              
BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NW WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CI AFFECTING MAINLY               
THE PIA TAF SITE.                                                               
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS WILL                 
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MOST                 
AREAS...MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE                
CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS             
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LAKE                   
SUPERIOR VICINITY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BY                
THAT TIME WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN                     
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT AND BRING HIGHS ON TUESDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO                  
MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS              
DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.                                      
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SLOWER TREND IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT                 
THROUGH ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BEGIN WITH POPS IN THE CENTRAL              
AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EVERYWHERE ON                      
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OF THE SHOWERY VARIETY...SO WILL             
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO SPOTTY AERIAL COVERAGE. FOR NOW            
WILL JUST HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...             
HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF THE SLOWING TREND OF THE               
COLD FRONT KEEPS UP.                                                            
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
SORT OF A COMPLICATED FORECAST GETTING INTO THE LONGER RANGE. THE               
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE FAST QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW                  
SETTING UP ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD. THIS LOWER                 
AMPLIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT THE COOL AIR DOME THAT WILL FOLLOW THE              
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW ONCE IT GETS TO THE OHIO             
VALLEY...WITH THE DEEPER COOL AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.             
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING OFF AS MUCH...AS WELL AS                
ALLOWING A FASTER MODIFICATION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z LONGER              
RANGE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER WAVE TO                 
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO               
RIVER NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z VERSIONS DO NOT SHOW THIS AND KEEPS            
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.                                                          
TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT...WILL RAISE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES             
SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS            
JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE            
HIGH PENETRATES THU/FRI AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE EFFECTS OF THE                
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE. SOME LOW POPS MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE                
SOUTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1208 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR EVE UPDATE WAS THUNDERSTORM TRENDS EARLY THIS                  
MORNING.  TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER ND/MN FORMED IN RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF MANITOBA JET STREAK AND SHRT WV ALONG CDFNT.  VFR STRATUS             
IN H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO NWRN IA AND CENTRAL/SRN             
MN WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SOURCE AND DEPTH TO                 
TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF EXISTING SUPERCELLS.  00Z RUC              
SHOWS H85 CIN ERODE BY 06Z OVER SRN MN WITH CAPES 3-4K J/KG AND PUSH            
EWD TOWARD MS RIVER BY 12Z.  MEAN WIND WOULD CONTINUE CARRYING MCS              
ELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET                 
INCREASING CORFIDI VECTORS MAY PULL SMALLER ELEMENTS INTO NERN IA               
AND SWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS                   
FURTHER THROUGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NERN CORNER OF FORECAST AREA.               
WILL UPDATE HWO TO INCLUDE SOME SEVERE MENTION CONSIDERING                      
INSTABILITY AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE INTO                
WIND POTENTIAL.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW HAS PICKED UP ACROSS WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW                  
CENTERED ACROSS SRN MANITOBA STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CNTRL                
ND/WRN SD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING             
INTO NRN ROCKIES. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING  ACROSS CNTRL ND              
INTO WRN SD AS WELL...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE            
LOW INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/NE/WRN IA AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK               
INTO THE 70S. AHEAD OF THE NRN ROCKIES WAVE...HAVE A WEAK VORT MAX              
OVER SE SD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT...WHICH COULD              
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN CWA               
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NRN CWA UNDER FAVORABLE                 
UPPER JET REGION...WITH A WEAK JET STREAK LOCATED OVER SRN MN/WRN WI            
LATE TONIGHT. LLJ INCREASES LATE TONIGHT TO NEARLY 30-40KT...ALONG              
WITH THE WARM FRONT INDICATED NICELY IN THE H85 THETA-E FIELD                   
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.                  
INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED INTO CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A            
RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 70S IN               
ACROSS THE AREA. GRADIENT ALSO CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA             
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY                
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SAG                   
SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT               
NOTED IN ALL THE MODELS. 12Z MODELS PROG COLD FRONT TO REACH NRN CWA            
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO DID ADJUST POPS                    
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SOME              
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN CWA INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT              
EXPECT THE SRN CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MORE            
OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO                 
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOK             
LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER JET              
INTERACTION ALOFT...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED INTO CENTRAL IOWA.             
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THAT TIME                 
PERIOD. ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT               
SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO                 
MONITOR CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME                   
DESTABILIZING...AND END UP WITH MORE OF A DRIZZLE/RAIN EVENT. FRONT             
THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER               
AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MN/IA INTO               
THE GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL               
US. H85 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH                   
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR               
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING/SFC HI PRESSURE WILL                  
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.             
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE RIDGE               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...27/06Z                                                              
PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING.  MODELS                
ARE CERTAINLY SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR ACTIVITY BUT QUESTION IS WHERE.              
AT THE MOMENT THE CONSENSUS APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OVER MN              
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN IA EARLY MON                   
MORNING.  SINCE TIMING AND LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN...HAVE ONLY                 
VCNTYS MENTIONED AT KMCW/KALO FOR THE MOMENT.                                   
ANOTHER CONCERN INVOLVES LLWS.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE                
WITH SELY SFC WINDS.  LLWS MARGINAL HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR               
TIME BEING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ALBRECHT/SMALL                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
934 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BOW ECHO WHICH DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 4 PM               
EDT SWEPT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...                  
RESULTING IN A BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH A LARGE HAIL REPORT            
AND MANY TREES DOWN. SEE ARBLSRMQT FOR A LISTING OF THE SEVERE                  
WEATHER REPORTS. SOUNDS LIKE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MENOMINEE                      
COUNTY WERE HIT PRETTY HARD PER CALL TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF.                     
CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE QUIETED DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH                
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE                 
CWA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AND             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...IN ADDITION TO             
THE PREVIOUS BOW ECHO...ARE LOCATED IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS...850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF A 110-130KT JET NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE CROSSING NORTHERN                 
ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ON               
THE NORTH SIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SAULT STE              
MARIE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DES MOINES IOWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES             
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALSO APPEAR TO BE               
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET. FARTHER TO THE                   
WEST...CONDITIONS ARE DRYING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. DEWPOINTS DROP OFF FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA            
TO THE UPPER 50S IN NE MN AND IN THE UPPER 40S IN NW MN.                        
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE IS WHETHER OR NOT MORE SHOWERS CAN              
DEVELOP. LOCAL 21Z WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS REDEVELOPING             
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z...APPARENTLY IN AN                
AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 21Z RUC SHOWS THE EXACT SAME               
FRONTOGENESIS FEATURE...BUT NO PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF. GIVEN THE             
FACT THAT THERE IS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA              
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SORT OF            
LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...AND THAT THE UPPER JET OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO            
IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WOULD THINK THE DRIER SCENARIO               
SEEMS MORE LIKELY. AS FAR AS THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES                 
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD               
EXPECT THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER JET PULLING AWAY               
AND NO OTHER GOOD FORCING MECHANISMS.                                           
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES              
UP. PLAN ON RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN                  
ADDITION...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RECENT RAINFALL...HAVE                  
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE             
LOWER DEWPOINT AIRMASS CAN COME IN. RIGHT HERE AT THE OFFICE THE FOG            
IS QUITE DENSE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AS ONE HEADS TO                    
MARQUETTE OR ISHPEMING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA                
WILL DEEPEN  AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LOCAL WRF                
MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING FROM                 
SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRACK                   
THROUGH EASTERN U.P. THIS EVENING REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY            
MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE             
FRONT AND FEED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. RUC/LOCAL WRF             
INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 2000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE             
AREA AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS SETS UP IN THAT AREA.                     
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS EVENING FOR MOST            
OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                                         
.LONG TERM (12Z WED THROUGH DAY 7)...                                           
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT DECENT RAIN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL                
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH                
PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THURSDAY              
NIGHT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THOUGH SIMILARLY TO             
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT MIGHT BE COLDER OVER THE GRB CWA WHERE AIR IS             
DRIEST...0.35 PWAT PER 12Z GFS. CONSIDERED PUTTING IN PATCHY FROST              
DURING THIS TIME AS WE COULD REALLY COLD ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER             
COUNTIES...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS COLDER AIR MAY END UP                 
SOUTH OF US ANYWAY.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE OR NEEDED TO               
GOING FCST. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUN/MON TIME FRAME AS            
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF KSAW.               
EXPECT THIS TO BE OUT OF KSAW SOON WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS                  
PERSISTING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE                      
VISIBILITIES...CURRENT TAF HAS 3SM AS LOWER LIMIT TO VIS BUT THINK              
IT COULD GET LOWER WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND PERSIST THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONT PUSHES WELL            
EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST                 
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE A HIGH                
PRES RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN                    
THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS            
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG (SHORT TERM)/PEARSON(LONG TERM)                                
AVIATION...PEARSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
807 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE OVER SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER TROUGH            
STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL                   
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO                
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORHTWEST SHORT OF LAKE            
MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND UNDER THE            
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA                
WILL DEEPEN  AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LOCAL WRF                
MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING FROM                 
SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRACK                   
THROUGH EASTERN U.P. THIS EVENING REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY            
MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE             
FRONT AND FEED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. RUC/LOCAL WRF             
INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 2000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE             
AREA AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS SETS UP IN THAT AREA.                     
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS EVENING FOR MOST            
OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                                         
.LONG TERM (12Z WED THROUGH DAY 7)...                                           
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT DECENT RAIN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL                
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH                
PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THURSDAY              
NIGHT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THOUGH SIMILARLY TO             
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT MIGHT BE COLDER OVER THE GRB CWA WHERE AIR IS             
DRIEST...0.35 PWAT PER 12Z GFS. CONSIDERED PUTTING IN PATCHY FROST              
DURING THIS TIME AS WE COULD REALLY COLD ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER             
COUNTIES...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS COLDER AIR MAY END UP                 
SOUTH OF US ANYWAY.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE OR NEEDED TO               
GOING FCST. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUN/MON TIME FRAME AS            
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF KSAW.               
EXPECT THIS TO BE OUT OF KSAW SOON WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS                  
PERSISTING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE                      
VISIBILITIES...CURRENT TAF HAS 3SM AS LOWER LIMIT TO VIS BUT THINK              
IT COULD GET LOWER WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND PERSIST THROUGH THE                 
NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONT PUSHES WELL            
EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST                 
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE A HIGH                
PRES RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN                    
THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS            
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG (SHORT TERM)/PEARSON(LONG TERM)                                
AVIATION...PEARSON                                                              
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
144 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN            
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE               
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW ARE OVER NORTH              
DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A             
LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST                   
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA OVER THE             
EASTERN U.P.                                                                    
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS A                  
LITTLE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD                
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BY MID               
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
STRETCHING FROM SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE             
FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE                
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON. RUC INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 1200J/KG ACROSS THE AREA              
AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                      
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DEEP                
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL                
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITIY WILL BE OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS DISCRIBED ABOVE AT              
KSAW ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR               
THE GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND                
WITH ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR            
CIGS AND VSBY AT KSAW. LOW CEILING ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA OF               
DEEP MOISTURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD              
SPREAD OVER KCMX THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD                      
DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND                  
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. FOG SHOULD SET IN WITH THE ADDITION OF                    
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EXPECTED AFTERNOON RAINS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION (1128 AM EDT)...                                                    
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN            
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE               
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW ARE OVER NORTH              
DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A             
LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST                   
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA OVER THE             
EASTERN U.P.                                                                    
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS A                  
LITTLE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD                
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BY MID               
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
STRETCHING FROM SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS              
IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE             
FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE                
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON. RUC INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 1200J/KG ACROSS THE AREA              
AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                      
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DEEP                
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL                
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITIY WILL BE OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR A CHANGE ARE DEALING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS             
MORNING OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE AT KCMX IS THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN            
CHANCES AT KSAW...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY EMBEDDED                
THUNDER CHANCES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN AT KSAW               
ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR THE                
GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH               
ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS            
AND VSBY AT KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION (407 AM EDT)...                                                     
PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED ARE THE MAIN FCST              
ISSUES.                                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN             
THE RESULTING SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE              
LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA. ONE SHORTWAVE (NOW MOVING JUST NE             
OF MN ARROWHEAD) IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT              
MOVED OVER NW WI INTO W AND CNTRL UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
NIGHT. 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER 00Z KMPX SOUNDING PROVIDED NICE                   
SUPPORT FOR THE CONVECTION. LATEST OBS FROM PROFILER NETWORK SHOW               
30-45KT LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED INTO NRN WI. SO SUPPORT FOR STORMS                  
OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. 850MB TROF APPEARS TO RUN               
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MN...NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SFC COLD FRONT.                
SHRA/TSRA LINE UP FAIRLY WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF.                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT               
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN TIMING ANY              
SFC WAVES RIPPLING UP THE FRONT...IN PARTICULAR TONIGHT/EARLY WED.              
NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FRONT...BUT HAS SHOWN VERY POOR            
CONSISTENCY ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY SFC WAVES ALONG FRONT. GFS HAS            
SHOWN MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY...SHOWING A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM SRN             
WI TONIGHT TO LAKE HURON WED AFTN. GIVEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY OF              
GFS WITH REGIONAL CANADIAN SUPPORTING GFS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS            
FOR THIS FCST.                                                                  
EXPECT ONGOING SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET              
FORCING WEAKENS. ITS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY END ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE                
FCST AREA FOR A TIME. DURING THE AFTN...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY               
TRACKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED               
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH               
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG...                   
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOCATION OF FRONT EARLY            
THIS AFTN (ROUGHLY FROM L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET) SUGGESTS SVR STORMS               
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI.                
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS.                                
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC WAVE THAT MAY LIFT NE ALONG FRONT DURING            
THE NIGHT. AT FIRST GLANCE...IT MAY SEEM THAT THE SWATH OF HVY                  
PCPN THE GFS SHOWS NW OF SFC LOW IS SUSPECT...BUT PRESENCE OF THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET...CORRESPONDING BAND OF DECENT                      
LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND POOLING OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE            
WATER (175-200PCT OF NORMAL) ALONG 850MB FRONT SUPPORT THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL. PLACEMENT IS SO CRITICAL THOUGH. IF            
FRONT SAGS TOO FAR S TODAY...BAND OF PCPN WILL MISS THE FCST AREA. AT           
THIS POINT...WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE FAR SCNTRL INTO SE FCST AREA              
GIVEN CONSISTENCY FOR THAT AREA TO BE UNDER BETTER FORCING. WILL                
RETAIN DRY FCST NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                              
WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC WAVE/UPPER JET SUPPORT...ANY LINGERING SHRA               
WILL END OVER THE SE FCST AREA WED MORNING. ONCE RAIN EXITS...                  
DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE LATER WED THRU THU AS SFC HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD BE                
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF AUG. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD            
BE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES NOSES E INTO UPPER MI. STAYED ALONG               
LINES OF INHERITED FCST BY GOING AOB MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR             
W HALF. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40F AS CORE OF                 
DRIER AIR PASSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES (GFS FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER              
OF 0.4-0.5 INCH) TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU WITH LITTLE TIME AVBL FOR CHECKING LATEST            
GUIDANCE DUE TO MONITORING OF ONGOING STORMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOR A CHANGE ARE DEALING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS             
MORNING OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE AT KCMX IS THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN            
CHANCES AT KSAW...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY EMBEDDED                
THUNDER CHANCES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN AT KSAW               
ALONG COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH NEAR THE                
GREATER INSTABILITY. WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH               
ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS            
AND VSBY AT KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE LATER                  
TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
407 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PCPN CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED ARE THE MAIN FCST              
ISSUES.                                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN               
WITH A TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN             
THE RESULTING SW FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE              
LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA. ONE SHORTWAVE (NOW MOVING JUST NE             
OF MN ARROWHEAD) IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT              
MOVED OVER NW WI INTO W AND CNTRL UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE             
NIGHT. 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER 00Z KMPX SOUNDING PROVIDED NICE                   
SUPPORT FOR THE CONVECTION. LATEST OBS FROM PROFILER NETWORK SHOW               
30-45KT LOW-LEVEL JET AIMED INTO NRN WI. SO SUPPORT FOR STORMS                  
OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. 850MB TROF APPEARS TO RUN               
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MN...NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SFC COLD FRONT.                
SHRA/TSRA LINE UP FAIRLY WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE TROF.                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT               
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN TIMING ANY              
SFC WAVES RIPPLING UP THE FRONT...IN PARTICULAR TONIGHT/EARLY WED.              
NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FRONT...BUT HAS SHOWN VERY POOR            
CONSISTENCY ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY SFC WAVES ALONG FRONT. GFS HAS            
SHOWN MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY...SHOWING A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM SRN             
WI TONIGHT TO LAKE HURON WED AFTN. GIVEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY OF              
GFS WITH REGIONAL CANADIAN SUPPORTING GFS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS            
FOR THIS FCST.                                                                  
EXPECT ONGOING SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET              
FORCING WEAKENS. ITS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY END ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE                
FCST AREA FOR A TIME. DURING THE AFTN...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY               
TRACKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED               
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH               
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG...                   
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOCATION OF FRONT EARLY            
THIS AFTN (ROUGHLY FROM L`ANSE TO WATERSMEET) SUGGESTS SVR STORMS               
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI.                
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS.                                
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC WAVE THAT MAY LIFT NE ALONG FRONT DURING            
THE NIGHT. AT FIRST GLANCE...IT MAY SEEM THAT THE SWATH OF HVY                  
PCPN THE GFS SHOWS NW OF SFC LOW IS SUSPECT...BUT PRESENCE OF THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET...CORRESPONDING BAND OF DECENT                      
LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND POOLING OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE            
WATER (175-200PCT OF NORMAL) ALONG 850MB FRONT SUPPORT THE                      
POSSIBILITY OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL. PLACEMENT IS SO CRITICAL THOUGH. IF            
FRONT SAGS TOO FAR S TODAY...BAND OF PCPN WILL MISS THE FCST AREA. AT           
THIS POINT...WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE FAR SCNTRL INTO SE FCST AREA              
GIVEN CONSISTENCY FOR THAT AREA TO BE UNDER BETTER FORCING. WILL                
RETAIN DRY FCST NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                              
WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC WAVE/UPPER JET SUPPORT...ANY LINGERING SHRA               
WILL END OVER THE SE FCST AREA WED MORNING. ONCE RAIN EXITS...                  
DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE LATER WED THRU THU AS SFC HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD BE                
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF AUG. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK SHOULD            
BE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES NOSES E INTO UPPER MI. STAYED ALONG               
LINES OF INHERITED FCST BY GOING AOB MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR             
W HALF. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40F AS CORE OF                 
DRIER AIR PASSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES (GFS FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER              
OF 0.4-0.5 INCH) TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU WITH LITTLE TIME AVBL FOR CHECKING LATEST            
GUIDANCE DUE TO MONITORING OF ONGOING STORMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONVECTION OVER MN EARLIER THIS EVENING IS SURVIVING INTO THE WEST              
U.P. MAY SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER AT KCMX FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.                       
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY TAPER OFF AT KCMX THROUGH 12Z              
WITH DRYING TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY TUE. CHC FOR CONVECTION AT KSAW WILL             
BE LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS OVR WEST U.P. STRUGGLE EAST INTO LESS                
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PCPN. ALSO COULD SEE SOME PCPN LATE TUE               
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP BTWN 20Z            
AND 24Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT YET TO TAKE OFF AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVR             
THE EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND ON LK MI. BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE             
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWING ACROSS WEST LK SUPERIOR THIS                
MORNING AND TO CLEAR THE FAR EASTERN LAKE LATE THIS AFTN. NW WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. NO              
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
749 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT)...                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN            
CONUS AND BORDER WITH CANADA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES                   
HELPING TO SPARK AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS               
FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE                  
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE MAIN            
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.              
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE             
MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT               
QUICKER TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY AND               
WELL SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO PROGRESSIVE NOR IS            
THE 00Z UKMET NOR ARE THE LOCAL HEMISPHERIC AND NORTH AMERICAN                  
WRF-ARW RUNS. AT THIS POINT AM INCLINED TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE             
PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWED                   
PROGRESSION OF THINGS...ALTHOUGH IN THE END THIS ONLY RESULTED IN               
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                            
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF UPSTREAM             
CONVECTION...ONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER                
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THE SECOND AREA              
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND                   
CORRESPONDS REASONABLY WELL WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED 850-500MB                  
NEGATIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND CORRESPONDING 850MB BASED CAPE.               
THIS AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EARLIER BUT NOTHING                 
DEVELOPED UNTIL IT MOVED INTO A LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS IT                   
ASCENDED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SATURATED. RUC ANALYSES AND                   
PROFILER DATA SHOW A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET IN THAT AREA...ORIENTED              
AT A DECENT ANGLE TO THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB            
FRONTOGENESIS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN                     
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED               
AND THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE                      
NORTHEAST. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE            
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL               
JET CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CUT OFF DUE TO              
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
STILL PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL MAKE IT              
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. THE               
SOUTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME SINCE                     
INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT GOING FOR            
A WHILE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT              
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION              
SHOULD CONTINUE. THE GFS QPF FIELDS ACTUALLY DID A REASONABLE JOB OF            
IDENTIFYING THIS PCPN IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM. THE RUC13 ALSO                    
HIGHLIGHTED PCPN IN THIS AREA AS DID THE LOCAL NORTH AMERICAN                   
WRF-ARW RUN. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE                   
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE              
CWFA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM THE UPSTREAM                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THAT POINT AND THE WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL               
LOW LEVEL JET AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY...PER THE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES...ALSO              
WEAKENS SOME...ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY             
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IF IT COULD CONTINUE TO BE FORCED. WILL BRING             
CHANCE FOR TSRA SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER                
THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION...BUT WILL OTHERWISE                
SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA.             
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE MORNING UNFOLDS                 
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED             
FARTHER EAST.                                                                   
ONCE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLAYS ITSELF OUT...WE WILL                 
LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TONIGHT               
BEFORE WE SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PCPN. IT ONCE AGAIN                  
APPEARS THAT THE BEST MARRIAGE OF FORCING...MOISTURE...AND                      
INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET.              
THE WESTERN CWFA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH LOWER                   
CHANCES TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE            
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA...BUT WILL KEEP JUST               
CHANCE POPS EAST OF THERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS EAST OF A            
MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WITH THE                 
FROPA ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP FOR A BIT TO OUR SOUTH               
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IF IT DOES THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL               
WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG IT AND CLIP THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWFA...SO                    
LINGERED PCPN A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...IT STILL                   
APPEARS TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE REALLY DRYING OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI IS FALLING                 
APART AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS...SHIFTING BETTER FORCING FOR PCPN                 
FARTHER S. A -SHRA STILL MIGHT SURVIVE TO KCMX THROUGH 13Z BEFORE               
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN TO REACH KSAW.                       
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE                  
EVENING HRS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CAPPED...PREVENTING THE                       
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KSAW             
AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY             
WIND DIRECTION WITH AT LEAST 25KT AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN SUGGESTS                
GUSTS TO 25KT ARE LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT             
REQUIRING LLWS TO BE INCLUDED IN FCST AT KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH                    
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL            
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED                  
A PROB GROUP FOR TSRA LATE IN THE NIGHT AT KCMX AS APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THERE.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO                   
GENERALLY AROUND 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER                
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WHICH IS              
TYPICAL FOR MOST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY IN              
THE 25-30KT RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER...THE PRES                    
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WHICH             
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY                    
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL             
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A WEAK              
SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING OVER                   
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25KT               
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER                   
OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS STANNARD ROCK. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR            
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS                   
NATIONAL LAKESHORE (AROUND GRAND MARAIS) AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE                 
TYPICALLY ENHANCED THERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME GALE              
FORCE GUSTS THERE AT TIMES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE E PART OF THE LAKE TUE AFTN. AT              
THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED 20KT AFTER THE            
COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT WED THRU FRI AS               
HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TRH                                                                
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN            
CONUS AND BORDER WITH CANADA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES                   
HELPING TO SPARK AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS               
FROM TEXAS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE                  
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE MAIN            
CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED               
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO THE EAST.              
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE             
MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT               
QUICKER TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY AND               
WELL SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO PROGRESSIVE NOR IS            
THE 00Z UKMET NOR ARE THE LOCAL HEMISPHERIC AND NORTH AMERICAN                  
WRF-ARW RUNS. AT THIS POINT AM INCLINED TO GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE             
PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWED                   
PROGRESSION OF THINGS...ALTHOUGH IN THE END THIS ONLY RESULTED IN               
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                            
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF UPSTREAM             
CONVECTION...ONE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER                
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THE SECOND AREA              
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND                   
CORRESPONDS REASONABLY WELL WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED 850-500MB                  
NEGATIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND CORRESPONDING 850MB BASED CAPE.               
THIS AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EARLIER BUT NOTHING                 
DEVELOPED UNTIL IT MOVED INTO A LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS IT                   
ASCENDED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SATURATED. RUC ANALYSES AND                   
PROFILER DATA SHOW A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET IN THAT AREA...ORIENTED              
AT A DECENT ANGLE TO THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB            
FRONTOGENESIS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN                     
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED               
AND THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT TO THE                      
NORTHEAST. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE            
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL               
JET CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CUT OFF DUE TO              
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
STILL PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOME SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL MAKE IT              
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING. THE               
SOUTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE TROUBLESOME SINCE                     
INSTABILITY AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT GOING FOR            
A WHILE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT              
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION              
SHOULD CONTINUE. THE GFS QPF FIELDS ACTUALLY DID A REASONABLE JOB OF            
IDENTIFYING THIS PCPN IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM. THE RUC13 ALSO                    
HIGHLIGHTED PCPN IN THIS AREA AS DID THE LOCAL NORTH AMERICAN                   
WRF-ARW RUN. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE                   
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE              
CWFA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM THE UPSTREAM                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THAT POINT AND THE WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL               
LOW LEVEL JET AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY...PER THE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES...ALSO              
WEAKENS SOME...ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY             
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IF IT COULD CONTINUE TO BE FORCED. WILL BRING             
CHANCE FOR TSRA SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER                
THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION...BUT WILL OTHERWISE                
SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA.             
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE MORNING UNFOLDS                 
SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED             
FARTHER EAST.                                                                   
ONCE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLAYS ITSELF OUT...WE WILL                 
LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TONIGHT               
BEFORE WE SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PCPN. IT ONCE AGAIN                  
APPEARS THAT THE BEST MARRIAGE OF FORCING...MOISTURE...AND                      
INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET.              
THE WESTERN CWFA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH LOWER                   
CHANCES TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE            
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA...BUT WILL KEEP JUST               
CHANCE POPS EAST OF THERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS EAST OF A            
MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WITH THE                 
FROPA ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP FOR A BIT TO OUR SOUTH               
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IF IT DOES THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL               
WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG IT AND CLIP THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWFA...SO                    
LINGERED PCPN A BIT LONGER IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...IT STILL                   
APPEARS TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND             
WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE REALLY DRYING OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
MADE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS 0115Z TAMDAR                    
SOUNDING FROM KSAW SHOWED 34 KT AT 940 FT AGL...AND 39 KT AT 1510 FT            
AGL. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE (0522Z) FROM THE KMQT RADAR SHOWS 35KT             
AT 500FT AGL. EXPECT 35KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER BOTH KSAW AND KCMX             
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AROUND 1000 FT LEVEL PER FCST               
SOUNDINGS. SECOND FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE                      
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS CONTINUES TO TRACK E...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN            
AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q              
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE W MAY BE ENOUGH            
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE               
INCLUDED THIS IN LATEST FORECAST FOR KCMX. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION               
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO                   
GENERALLY AROUND 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER                
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAKE WHICH IS              
TYPICAL FOR MOST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. GUSTS ARE OCCASIONALLY IN              
THE 25-30KT RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER...THE PRES                    
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE TODAY WHICH             
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY                    
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL             
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A WEAK              
SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING OVER                   
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25KT               
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER                   
OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS STANNARD ROCK. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR            
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS                   
NATIONAL LAKESHORE (AROUND GRAND MARAIS) AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE                 
TYPICALLY ENHANCED THERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME GALE              
FORCE GUSTS THERE AT TIMES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE E PART OF THE LAKE TUE AFTN. AT              
THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED 20KT AFTER THE            
COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT WED THRU FRI AS               
HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...TRH                                                                
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
950 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC BASED CONVECTION INHIBITED EARLIER AS CAP WAS VICTORIOUS. 00Z               
UPPER AIR ANALYSES VERIFIED THIS SHOWING A MID LEVEL WARM POCKET                
OF 14C AT H7 DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM SD                
THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS A BIT...WHICH               
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE SEEING DEVELOPING                    
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL MN. EXPECT THE MOST                   
ORGANIZED AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO BE IN CENTRAL                
MN AND WRN WI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES NEAR WHAT THEY WERE                  
LAST NIGHT WITH A BIT MORE VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET...SO HAIL A                   
POSSIBILITY. STORM MODE THUS FAR ON 88D AND 00Z RUC PARAMETERS                  
WOULD INDICATE WIND THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO ONLY              
THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED TO THE MEAN              
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CAN SEE SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN LATER               
TONIGHT AND INTO TUES AND EVEN TUES NIGHT /AS MENTIONED BELOW/.                 
THE 00Z NAM...WHICH IS CONSISTENT...BRINGS THE REMNANT ALOFT ENERGY             
OF WHAT WAS HURRICANE DEAN AT ONE TIME NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT                
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE ON TUES. OUTPUT QPF FROM THIS AND THE              
21Z SREF WOULD FAVOR SRN AND SE MN TO SEE POSSIBLY A WIDESPREAD                 
ONE INCH PLUS RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.                                 
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING                
ACROSS MN CWA. MPX 18Z SOUNDING SHOWING STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER                
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA. ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG PERIPHERY OF              
CAPPING INVERSION...FAR NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA. THIS WILL                  
RIDE EAST DURING THE EVENING. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CAP/CINH WILL               
ERODE ALONG/VCNTY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...AFFECTING             
MAINLY CENTRAL MN. QUESTION WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ROOTED                 
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO FIRE...TORNADO                  
POTENTIAL IS THERE AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...ALONG          
WITH HEAVY RAIN...WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE                 
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY              
EVOLVE INTO MCS LATER TONIGHT AND AFFECT WESTERN WI.                            
FRONT SLOW TO SAG OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY              
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THUNDER THREAT DECREASES RAPIDLY                   
BEHIND FRONT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED CAP INDICATED BEHIND                 
FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS/RAIN AROUND TUESDAY...WILL                
GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE VALUES. HYDRO WILL HAVE TO BE              
MONITORED TONIGHT INTO WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST AS 1HR/3HR FFG               
IS QUITE LOW.                                                                   
SOME INDICATION ON SREF THAT FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTH               
INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE                 
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WED. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR              
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                         
LONGER TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOME INDICATION OF SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS              
NORTHER US/SOUTHERN CANADA LATER SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD WHICH WOULD BRING         
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL MN DURING THIS PERIOD.              
WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF            
AREA THEN.  00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT SLOWER ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT WITH THE             
AND 06Z GFS BRINGING INTO CENTRAL MN BY MONDAY.  00Z GFS ENSEMBLE               
MEAN WAS FASTER WITH FRONT AND ATTENDANT POPS.  WARMING ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES               
THROUGH THE 80S THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/                                                          
CAPPED CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY...AND VERY               
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN ANY APPRECIABLE         
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK ACROSS MOST TAF SITES PRIOR TO 06Z. GFS ISENTROPIC          
ANAL EVEN SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED PRIOR TO 12Z.             
DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INCLUDE CHANCE TSRA ACROSS MOST             
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z. BIGGEST NIGHTLY WEATHER PROBLEM WILL               
BE NON-CONVECTIVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ITS TIME MARCHING SE...AND SWEEP ACROSS MUCH                 
OF MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY 20Z. LOOKS LIKE A POST FRONTAL MID                 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A SECOND CHANCE OF CONVECTION         
DURING THE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 28/00Z          
TIME FRAME BEHIND SECONDARY TROF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL              
FILL IN BEHIND TROF...PROVIDING TOP NOTCH FLYING CONDITIONS FROM                
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EVENING HOURS ON WED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/AJZ/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
750 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO GET FAIRLY BUSY HERE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA               
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF                    
SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR ENTERING SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT                   
PRESENT IS FUELING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST                            
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...RAPIDLY MOVING INTO WESTERN                       
WISCONSIN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS QUITE PREVALENT ACROSS THE                   
AREA...AS EVIDENCED ON 00Z AREA AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS...BUT                  
SHEAR IS QUITE LACKING DUE TO THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS.              
THIS DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS SO              
GREAT THAT IT IS MAKING UP FOR THE LACK OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR TO               
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED                 
TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS              
FORECAST HAD THIS SCENARIO PEGGED QUITE WELL SO FEW CHANGES WERE                
MADE.                                                                           
SCENARIO FOR LATER TODAY DOES NOT LOOK DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT THAN              
IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. INTENSE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION...ASSOCIATED                
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL                         
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL               
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING                
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION                   
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM SEEING                          
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EVEN INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT               
HOURS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN                       
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD FAVOR A                 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE                        
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.                                                         
UNLIKE SUNDAY EVENING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST                   
MINNESOTA...THE TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT LOOK SUBSTANTIAL FOR                    
SEVERAL REASONS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO              
BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE...AS OPPOSED TO A DEEPENING ONE.                        
ALSO...LOW LEVEL INHIBITION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...A                    
SITUATION THAT SHOULD NOT IMPROVE WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE                     
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID                  
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE SITUATION REMINDS ME OF 2 WEEKS                        
AGO...WHEN WIDESPREAD WINDS/LARGE HAIL/URBAN FLOODING WERE A                    
PROBLEM...BUT NOT TORNADOES.                                                    
SPEAKING OF FLOODING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY HAVE                
TO DEAL WITH THAT AGAIN...AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY                 
NEAR THE IOWA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY EVEN HAVE AN                 
EXTRA INFUSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...AS THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE               
DEAN /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING THE WEST COAST NEAR SAN DIEGO/               
ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF FLOODING RAINS                
DOES LOOK TO BE SOUTH...IN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT IT IS NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90                       
CORRIDOR. THIS IS SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.                                      
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS A FAIRLY                  
POTENT SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT DEPARTS.                
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/                                                          
CONCERN WITH THE TAFS ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE                 
DURATION OF THE TAF. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MN AND              
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR                                
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO               
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO CNTRL MN TONIGHT.  ON GOING CONVECTION OVR                  
WISCONSIN AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MN...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND                  
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED             
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION ALOFT...RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS AND CLOUDS             
OVR CNTRL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS 2-4            
THOUSAND FEET AGL EARLIER. CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO               
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THROUGH LATE             
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...CONDS               
RETROGRADING IN PRECIP AND TSRA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
850 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                 
THE WAVE THAT GENERATED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IS                  
EXITING EAST RAPIDLY. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON WITH ONLY A               
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST                    
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS WENT A                  
HEAD AND DROPPED POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPERED BACK POPS IN THE                  
EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THIS              
MORNING SO INCREASED SKY COVER ALONG THE NEIGHBORS. ALSO INCREASED              
AFTERNOON SKY COVER A BIT SINCE CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO                   
VACATE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES                  
NECESSARY THERE. SCT                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
MOIST UPPER TROUGH TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT AND THIS              
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG FAVORABLE 90KT JET                    
POSITION. LIFTED INDEXES HAVE BEEN ABOVE ZERO RESULTING IN MAINLY               
JUST SHOWERS...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINIMAL TSTORMS...AS              
A FEW CELLS HAVE EXCEEDED 50 DBZ. A NEW COLD FRONTAL ZONE                       
SEPARATING TWO COOL CANADIAN AIR MASSES ALSO COMING INTO PLAY AS IT             
MOVES E ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL WITH                   
THIS SYSTEM EITHER...AS PRECIP TURNED OUT HEAVIER AND FARTHER N IN              
OUR AREA...7 TENTHS AT MEDICINE LAKE...HALF AN INCH IN POPLAR AND               
WOLF POINT. SYSTEM MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED TOO...AND LATEST         
NAM AND RUC NOW HAVING MEAN 80 RH LINE...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING                 
TO SHOWER AREA...OUT OF CWA BY NOON.                                            
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER S AB AND INTO NC MT TO               
SPREAD CLEARING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WNW TODAY. TEMPS IN UPPER              
30S AND LOWER 40S COMMON IN THIS AREA AT 3 AM. OVERALL NOT MUCH                 
CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY IN OUR ARA WITH THICKNESSES AND                
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR. GAIN OR LOSS OF CLOUD COVER OVER YESTERDAY                
THE MAIN FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY.                                                 
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL SURFACE HIGH FROM AB OVER AREA TONIGHT.                 
WITH PRECIP ENDING BY NOON MOST AREAS...PLENTY OF TIME FOR DRYING               
OF THE AIRMASS WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY ADVECTION. THIS WILL PREVENT               
ANY FOG FORMATION DESPITE TODAYS RAIN...AND ALSO SHOULD PROVIDE                 
FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST LOWS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 TEMPS DROP TO                
AROUND 8C IN OUR N OVERNIGHT...WHICH UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING CONDITIONS USUALLY MEANS SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. LOCAL E               
WIND IN MILK VALLEY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS FOR              
GGW AREA ONLY.                                                                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VERY CONSISTENTLY LATELY THAT A STRONG UPPER        
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW STATES WILL EXPAND N STRONGLY INTO MT WED AND             
THU. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB TO UPPER 580S DM...THICKNESSES TO 580                 
DM...850 MB TEMPS TO 25-28C. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE                
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THU. WILL GO MIDDLE GROUND ON MOS                 
NUMBERS. WARMING BEGINS WED UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH LOW               
LEVEL S FLOW STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FULL SUNSHINE. THIS                
HOLDS TRUE FOR THU WITH MEAN RH FALLING TO UNDER 30 PCT IN                      
AFTERNOON. SIMONSEN                                                             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                  
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.               
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HOT THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY                
DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A FROPA                  
EARLY SATURDAY LEADS TO A COOLER, BUT STILL WARM SUNDAY THROUGH                 
TUESDAY PERIOD. POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO SCARCE              
MOISTURE, HOWEVER WIGGLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD                     
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA SATURDAY. AFTER SOME                    
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS                
SUGGEST MORE RIDGE-BUILDING OVER MONTANA INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH                
SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. WJM                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KMLS TO KISN MOVING IN A               
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING. SOME AREAS OF LOW              
CLOUDS WITH CIGS BKN- OVC020 BUT MOST AREAS IN NEMONT ARE BKN070                
OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH                         
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND LOWER CLOUD DECKS DISSIPATING. A LIGHT                 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR                
THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. FRANSEN                           
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
332 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                 
MOIST UPPER TROUGH TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT AND THIS              
MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG FAVORABLE 90KT JET                    
POSITION. LIFTED INDEXES HAVE BEEN ABOVE ZERO RESULTING IN MAINLY               
JUST SHOWERS...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINIMAL TSTORMS...AS              
A FEW CELLS HAVE EXCEEDED 50 DBZ. A NEW COLD FRONTAL ZONE                       
SEPARATING TWO COOL CANADIAN AIR MASSES ALSO COMING INTO PLAY AS IT             
MOVES E ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL WITH                   
THIS SYSTEM EITHER...AS PRECIP TURNED OUT HEAVIER AND FARTHER N IN              
OUR AREA...7 TENTHS AT MEDICINE LAKE...HALF AN INCH IN POPLAR AND               
WOLF POINT. SYSTEM MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED TOO...AND LATEST         
NAM AND RUC NOW HAVING MEAN 80 RH LINE...WHICH IS CORRESPONDING                 
TO SHOWER AREA...OUT OF CWA BY NOON.                                            
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES OVER S AB AND INTO NC MT TO               
SPREAD CLEARING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WNW TODAY. TEMPS IN UPPER              
30S AND LOWER 40S COMMON IN THIS AREA AT 3 AM. OVERALL NOT MUCH                 
CHANGE IN AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY IN OUR ARA WITH THICKNESSES AND                
850 MB TEMPS SIMILAR. GAIN OR LOSS OF CLOUD COVER OVER YESTERDAY                
THE MAIN FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY.                                                 
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL SURFACE HIGH FROM AB OVER AREA TONIGHT.                 
WITH PRECIP ENDING BY NOON MOST AREAS...PLENTY OF TIME FOR DRYING               
OF THE AIRMASS WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY ADVECTION. THIS WILL PREVENT               
ANY FOG FORMATION DESPITE TODAYS RAIN...AND ALSO SHOULD PROVIDE                 
FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST LOWS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 TEMPS DROP TO                
AROUND 8C IN OUR N OVERNIGHT...WHICH UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING CONDITIONS USUALLY MEANS SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. LOCAL E               
WIND IN MILK VALLEY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS FOR              
GGW AREA ONLY.                                                                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VERY CONSISTENTLY LATELY THAT A STRONG UPPER        
HIGH CENTERED OVER SW STATES WILL EXPAND N STRONGLY INTO MT WED AND             
THU. 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB TO UPPER 580S DM...THICKNESSES TO 580                 
DM...850 MB TEMPS TO 25-28C. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE                
90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THU. WILL GO MIDDLE GROUND ON MOS                 
NUMBERS. WARMING BEGINS WED UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH LOW               
LEVEL S FLOW STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FULL SUNSHINE. THIS                
HOLDS TRUE FOR THU WITH MEAN RH FALLING TO UNDER 30 PCT IN                      
AFTERNOON. SIMONSEN                                                             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                  
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.               
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HOT THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY                
DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A FROPA                  
EARLY SATURDAY LEADS TO A COOLER, BUT STILL WARM SUNDAY THROUGH                 
TUESDAY PERIOD. POPS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO SCARCE              
MOISTURE, HOWEVER WIGGLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD                     
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA SATURDAY. AFTER SOME                    
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS                
SUGGEST MORE RIDGE-BUILDING OVER MONTANA INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH                
SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. WJM                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A ROUND OF              
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER. THESE WILL CLEAR               
FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 17Z. SURFACE                 
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST FROM SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY. PREVAILING OVERCAST CLOUD BASES ABOVE 7000 FT WITH                    
CEILINGS DOWN TO 3000 FT IN SHOWERS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS DRY WITH              
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WJM                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
914 PM MDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...              
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LATEST                 
NAM AND RUC STILL GENERATE INCREASING AND RATHER HIGH MEAN RH AS                
IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH QPF. A NEW COLD FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY ALSO DEVELOPING IS CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WEST. MODELS                 
DON`T HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TROUGH AS MOST PRECIP THIS EVE               
HAS BEEN IN OUR N. MAIN UPDATE IS TO EXPAND AREA OF HIGHER POPS                 
FARTHER N. AIRMASS NOT QUITE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY                
OF TSTORMS...BUT EXPECT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO                     
OVERNIGHT AS SEEN IN PAST HOUR. SIMONSEN                                        
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S                    
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS AIDED IN              
KEEPING TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY.                              
ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA                   
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS               
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF               
ONE UPPER IMPULSE LOCATED NEAR HAVRE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A                
POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED POP EVENT OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF               
THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN                  
850MB BOUNDARY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER                  
SPEED MAX/S RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL                     
JET...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. CANNOT              
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY ON GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE.                    
THE UPPER TROUGH/S BASE BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON              
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH                
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE               
FREE TO DROP FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL BRING A                
REINFORCING COOL SHOT THROUGH THE DAY AND AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL                
ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEAST WHERE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LAST. HIGH                  
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS                  
AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. UPPER RIDGING UNFOLDS ALONG         
THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WHILE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS SETTING UP              
ACROSS THE CWA. LACK OF CLOUDS SHOULD EASILY ALLOW WEDNESDAY/S                  
HIGHS TO JUMP BACK INTO NORMAL TERRITORY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM              
UP LATER IN THE WEEK. MCZ                                                       
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                  
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. THE MODELS ARE IN                   
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY                
NEXT. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FRANSEN                                     
PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...WILL PRETTY MUCH HOLD THE CURRENT                
COURSE WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY               
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A                
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG UPPER RIDGE STILL                
SLATED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH RATHER WARM                 
LOW LEVEL AIR. THUS AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK WE GET A STARK               
REMINDER THAT IT IS STILL AUGUST WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER              
80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN BEGINS TO MOVE OFF                
TO THE EAST AS A TROF CARVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS                 
FOR SATURDAY IT APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST              
TO SOUTHWEST. A MONTH OR TWO EARLIER AND THIS WOULD BE VERY                     
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. BUT IN LATE AUGUST SOUTHWEST FLOW                  
ALOFT BEGINS TO LOSE ITS MYSTIQUE. WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRY                 
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...WILL KEEP THE                 
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO                  
MOVE THRU SUNDAY WITH UPPER FLOW RETURNING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST IN              
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE                    
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL BE              
DRY WITH DISTINCT LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE UPPER                   
SUPPORT FOR THE RATHER MINUSCULE FRONTAL LIFT BEING INDICATED.                  
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT                  
DOES APPEAR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY               
THOUGHT. SOME WEAK INDUCED UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FOR MONDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES                   
GENERALLY ABOVE 7KT FT AGL. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MVFR CEILINGS              
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS. A BRIEF SHOWER              
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KGGW AND KOLF...WITH A BETTER CHANCE                
OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING AT KGDV. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ON THE                 
LIGHT SIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM                 
THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE               
TAFS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. CB                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
245 PM MDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...                                          
NOT MUCH GOING ON AROUND THE FORECAST AREA NOW AS WE AWAIT                      
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.              
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN BC/ALBERTA...AND AS IT               
SWINGS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SURGE INTO OUR                 
AREA FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER                 
ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THIS IS THE AIRMASS WE WILL               
DEAL WITH TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL IMPULSE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY ALONG THE BC/WA COAST. MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THIS                    
FEATURE AT ALL.                                                                 
FRONTOGENESIS SET TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN                   
PARTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE NORTH.                 
RUC 700MB WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK ACROSS OUR WEST IN                    
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE. GIVEN UPSTREAM SECONDARY WAVE                 
NOT SHOWN BY MODELS...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS                 
MAY SAG FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE...AND THIS WILL NEED TO              
BE WATCHED. AT THE VERY LEAST THE 18Z WRF COMING IN HAS TRENDED                 
WETTER AND COOLER FOR TOMORROW. WITH CONSIDERATIONS TO THIS AND                 
EXPECTED COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE STAYED              
THE COURSE WITH HIGH AND ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA                    
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF                  
BILLINGS STILL LOOKS GOOD WHERE STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD BE. HAVE               
KEPT ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPSLOPE                
COMPONENT WHICH IS SHAPING UP TO BE REASONABLY DEEP. GFS/NAM                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 3-5KFT DEEP AND                
DECREASED MTN TOP DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM NYE TO RED LODGE AND SHR                  
LATE TONIGHT THRU MUCH OF TUE. SO GENERALLY SHALLOW UPSLOPE LIGHT               
SHOWERS OR EVEN SPRINKLES SEEM TO BE A REASONABLE BET IN THIS                   
AREA...WHEREAS THE HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD SET UP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER              
TERRAIN IN OUR NORTH AND EAST PARTS. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY                
EVENING...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG THE                      
FOOTHILLS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH               
QUICK ONSET OF RIDGING...SOUNDINGS LOOK REASONABLE SHOWING A                    
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COULD HAVE                 
FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES WED MORNING.                    
TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MID JUNE...               
THE LAST TIME BILLINGS HAS HAD A HIGH COOLER THAN 70F. MOS VALUES               
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SEEM MUCH TOO HIGH UPON                   
COMPARISON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT                
WE WILL BE UNDER A THINK CLOUD COVER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.                
WITH ADDED THREAT OF PCPN...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE                 
AND HAVE IN FACT LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS A BIT. HAVE GIVEN BILLINGS              
A 67F BUT IF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP THEN WE MAY NOT                 
GET MUCH ABOVE 60F. GFS/NAM EACH SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10-12C                 
TUE AFTN.                                                                       
DRYING AND MUCH WARMER FOR WED AS RIDGE RAPIDLY REBUILDS FROM THE               
WEST. EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THOUGH...AND WITH WHAT                 
SHOULD BE A COOL START TO THE DAY HAVE STAYED A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE              
WED AS WELL. NONETHELESS SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. MUCH               
WARMER NIGHT WITH A POORER HUMIDITY RECOVERY WED NIGHT. HAVE                    
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF TSTMS WED AFTN/EVNG AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE                 
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST. ANY MONSOONAL                   
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.                                     
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF                     
THE EXTENDED AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                         
THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER FORECAST AREA                     
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONSISTENT MODELS COMING IN WARMER                      
DESPITE CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IN EXTENDED...THEREFORE WILL NUDGE UP                  
TEMPS CLOSER TOWARD A BLEND OF FAVORED GUIDANCE. RIDGE IS                       
FLATTENED FOR LATTER PART OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH                 
SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.                                  
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN ZONES EARLY IN                        
EXTENDED. GENERALLY KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FORECAST AREA FURTHER                   
OUT AS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SWAY FROM NORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR                   
NOW...BUT WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY                   
NIGHT FOR INCREASING POPS. BT                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF                    
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH                   
LATER TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MVFR CONDITIONS                   
WITH OVERCAST DECKS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM BILLINGS EAST               
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST                     
MONTANA TO BE OVERCAST WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT               
RAIN. BT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 052/067 048/083 059/094 060/094 061/093 057/087 054/085                     
    53/R    10/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
LVM 045/066 043/086 051/092 053/093 053/087 049/086 046/083                     
    22/R    10/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
HDN 054/069 048/086 055/096 058/099 059/098 057/093 053/091                     
    55/R    10/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
MLS 053/066 047/083 059/093 060/096 062/095 060/087 056/087                     
    66/R    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
4BQ 054/069 049/079 057/092 059/097 060/098 058/090 055/089                     
    56/R    20/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
BHK 052/062 049/079 056/091 059/094 060/093 058/082 053/085                     
    66/R    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
SHR 051/070 048/084 055/091 055/094 057/091 055/089 051/086                     
    33/R    20/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
908 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE FAR WEST AT THIS TIME. COOL FRONT                    
THROUGH ONL LBF AND AKO AT 02Z WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN EAST OF THE                 
PANHANDLE TO INCREASE BEYOND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE                
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS H5               
WAVE PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAINLY               
AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN ROUTES...TWB098 AND TWB264 OVER THE NEXT 18         
HRS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FCST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CIRRUS SHIELD                
WHICH IS PARKED OVER SWRN SD THIS AFTN. YESTERDAYS NAM12 WAS FCSTING            
BOTH FEATURES TO BE OVER SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THE FCST IS VERY                   
UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THE POTENT H5 WAVE OVER SERN UT/NERN              
AZ. THIS COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF "DEAN". NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO            
BE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL              
AFFECT THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUES AM.                    
MODEL BLENDED SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY SO HAVE OPTED FOR 30 TO 50             
POP LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE MODEL             
BLEND PLUS 20 PERCENT.                                                          
THE BASIC PLAY ON MODEL PERFORMANCE PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE WOULD             
BE TO BRING THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SCATTERED                 
UPSLOPE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                         
THE SWODY1 IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE               
THIS AFTN AND SFC WINDS WILL HAVE TO BACK AROUND THIS EVENING. THE              
ONLY HOPE IS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS POSSIBLE.           
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AND HAIL            
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENT H5 WAVE EJECTING OUT OF COLO...A 45-50             
KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMING AND EXCELLENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE           
THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS UNCERTAIN.               
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VAST AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL            
DRIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ERN U.S. ALL INDICATIONS ARE                
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER KS AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE RETURN             
WILL OCCUR IN NEB. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS                
LATE WEEK PRODUCING WAA BUT DRY WX. SO THE EXTENDED FCST IS FOR DRY             
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                                            
TEMPS DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 ARE MOSTLY NAM12 2M TEMPS...THEREAFTER HPC               
LOOKED REASONABLE EXCEPT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN                  
APPLIED TO OFFSET THE WARM BIAS THIS SUMMER.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COLD FRONT MEANDERS                
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTS              
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER DAKOTAS AND                   
WYOMING MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE                  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION                
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF                
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE             
REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC            
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH               
INTO KS EARLY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.                      
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC/TK/MP                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
305 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CIRRUS SHIELD                
WHICH IS PARKED OVER SWRN SD THIS AFTN. YESTERDAYS NAM12 WAS FCSTING            
BOTH FEATURES TO BE OVER SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. THE FCST IS VERY                   
UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THE POTENT H5 WAVE OVER SERN UT/NERN              
AZ. THIS COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF "DEAN". NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO            
BE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL              
AFFECT THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUES AM.                    
MODEL BLENDED SOLNS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY SO HAVE OPTED FOR 30 TO 50             
POP LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE MODEL             
BLEND PLUS 20 PERCENT.                                                          
THE BASIC PLAY ON MODEL PERFORMANCE PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE WOULD             
BE TO BRING THE FRONT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SCATTERED                 
UPSLOPE POPS WEDNESDAY.                                                         
THE SWODY1 IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE               
THIS AFTN AND SFC WINDS WILL HAVE TO BACK AROUND THIS EVENING. THE              
ONLY HOPE IS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS POSSIBLE.           
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS AND HAIL            
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENT H5 WAVE EJECTING OUT OF COLO...A 45-50             
KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMING AND EXCELLENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE           
THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS UNCERTAIN.               
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VAST AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL            
DRIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ERN U.S. ALL INDICATIONS ARE                
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER KS AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE RETURN             
WILL OCCUR IN NEB. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS                
LATE WEEK PRODUCING WAA BUT DRY WX. SO THE EXTENDED FCST IS FOR DRY             
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                                            
TEMPS DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 ARE MOSTLY NAM12 2M TEMPS...THEREAFTER HPC               
LOOKED REASONABLE EXCEPT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN                  
APPLIED TO OFFSET THE WARM BIAS THIS SUMMER.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COLD FRONT MEANDERS                
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTS              
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER DAKOTAS AND                   
WYOMING MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE                  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION                
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF                
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE             
REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC            
AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND NORTH TO                     
NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH               
INTO KS EARLY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC                                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1013 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD OUR              
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
12Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM GSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER DEEP MOISTURE             
COLUMN EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB WITH TOTAL PWATS AT 1.4 INCHES.                   
HOWEVER...JUST NORTH AT WALLOPS ISLAND...DRYING WAS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT          
THE SOUNDING WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800 MB AND                   
PWATS BELOW 1 INCH. WINDS BACKING FROM NE TO N THROUGH THE COLUMN               
TODAY WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY NOTED JUST TO OUR                
NORTH TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK                  
MEAGER TODAY AS THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM AND                             
STABILIZE...ESSENTIALLY CAPPING OFF THE ATMOSPHERE.                             
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRIER AIR                 
ADVECTS IN AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS UP PAST 800 MB. BOTH THE LOCAL                
THICKNESS AND DRY ADIABATIC SCHEMES SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER              
90S. BASED ON THE HIGHS WE SAW YESTERDAY AND CONSIDERING WE ARE                 
STARTING THE DAY OFF TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS               
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                              
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW              
THETA-E VALUES...ESPECIALLY AT 700MB...CONTINUING THROUGH THEN.                 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                  
NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEPICTS THIS TROUGH              
FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BISECTING THE STATE...          
WHILE THE NAM FORECASTS THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                 
BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                     
ESSENTIALLY CAPPED. THE CAP IS WEAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...AND                   
MORE NOTICEABLE ON THE GFS WITH A TOUCH OF WARMING ALOFT BETWEEN                
600MB AND 500MB. MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRONG THROUGH                       
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AS                 
THEY BECOME THURSDAY PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. WILL OPT TO               
HAVE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE                
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN BETTER                  
INSTABILITY...A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING MID-LEVEL                   
THETA-E ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BETTER FORECAST 700MB AND 850MB                
UVV ALBEIT WEAK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE MID-LEVEL                   
RIDGE. GIVEN THE SLACK GRADIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED...RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE GFS               
IS DRY WITH ITS QPF THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK THE BEST CHANCE                
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE               
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE ARE HIGHER...AND WHERE SOMETHING               
THAT MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING                  
SOUTH IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH CHANGED                
FROM TUESDAY AND MAINLY 90 TO 95.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE NAM THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACTUALLY SHOWS                  
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
WITH DIMINISHING K INDICES. THE GFS IS ALMOST AS UNIMPRESSIVE                   
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH                  
WEAKENS. BASED ON THIS HAVE DIMINISHED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE                 
DAY. EVENTUALLY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD                  
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...AND                       
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.                          
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT SAT THROUGH MON. THIS                
MAY CAUSE FRONT TO STALL/DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA SAT               
INTO SUN. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED CHANCE                
POP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SAT. BY SUN...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH              
RIDGING NEAR SURFACE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO GO               
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUN INTO MON.                                               
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPS                    
POSSIBLY TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER            
HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE A RETURN TO MUCH               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR            
STILL HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA...WE SHOULD              
BE IN FOR ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND                       
VISIBILITIES. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH THE IFR                     
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND            
WITH LIGHT TO CALM AIR AT THE SURFACE...TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW              
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z-09Z. THESE LOW CIGS/VIS WILL MIX OUT              
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SURFACE                
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. GFS/NAM BUFR            
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY...CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO              
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL                   
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NAM BUFR                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WITH A SATURATED NEAR-SFC LAYER AND 15KT ENE/NE FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER AND              
SREF PROBABILITIES FOR CIGS < 1KFT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE UNDER               
5-10%. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS                
OUT OF THE FAY/RWI TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL               
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.           
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY                 
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING                
MVFR/IFR VIS IN FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS               
(FAY/RWI) THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED               
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WSS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JFB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
LONG TERM...DJF                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
243 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                   
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE                     
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE                 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA                    
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY                  
SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES                
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
STABILITY HAS INCREASED ON MSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS                  
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SURFACE THETA-E. DEW POINTS                    
CONTINUED TO BE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...AND WINDS               
FROM THE KRAX WSR-88D WERE AROUND 15KTS AT 1000FT. THESE WINDS                  
TEND TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRATUS...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS...MOSTLY                  
SC...WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO                    
NUMEROUS LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE DIMINISHING TO FEW-TO-SCATTERED              
CU AND SCATTERED...MOSTLY THIN...CIRRUS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE                   
DIFFUSE DEW POINT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...IN ABOUT THE SAME                     
LOCATION AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. 700MB THETA-E REALLY DIMINISHES ON BOTH               
THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS FOR TODAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING                 
UNDER THE HIGH. DESPITE A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST BY                
THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON...850MB DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST WITH CAPPED               
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AT                  
500MB IN PARTICULAR ON THE 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS. 850MB TEMPERATURES                
ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AS FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND                 
THE GFS AND SUSPECT HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO MONDAY VALUES.                
LOCAL 1000-850MB TEMPERATURE SCHEME YIELDS LOWER 90S...AND WILL GO              
CLOSE TO THIS OR MAYBE JUST A SHADE LOWER BASED ON MONDAY HIGHS.                
THERE MAY BE A FEW...BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS                   
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT AS THE               
HIGH BUILDS IN AND WHERE 850MB AND 925MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE               
BETWEEN 10 AND 20KT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW              
THETA-E VALUES...ESPECIALLY AT 700MB...CONTINUING THROUGH THEN.                 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL                  
NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEPICTS THIS TROUGH              
FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BISECTING THE STATE...          
WHILE THE NAM FORECASTS THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                 
BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS                     
ESSENTIALLY CAPPED. THE CAP IS WEAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...AND                   
MORE NOTICEABLE ON THE GFS WITH A TOUCH OF WARMING ALOFT BETWEEN                
600MB AND 500MB. MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRONG THROUGH                       
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AS                 
THEY BECOME THURSDAY PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. WILL OPT TO               
HAVE A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE                
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN BETTER                  
INSTABILITY...A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING MID-LEVEL                   
THETA-E ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BETTER FORECAST 700MB AND 850MB                
UVV ALBEIT WEAK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH TO THE MID-LEVEL                   
RIDGE. GIVEN THE SLACK GRADIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED...RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE GFS               
IS DRY WITH ITS QPF THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK THE BEST CHANCE                
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH THURSDAY WHERE THE               
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE ARE HIGHER...AND WHERE SOMETHING               
THAT MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING                  
SOUTH IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH CHANGED                
FROM TUESDAY AND MAINLY 90 TO 95.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE NAM THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACTUALLY SHOWS                  
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST                 
WITH DIMINISHING K INDICES. THE GFS IS ALMOST AS UNIMPRESSIVE                   
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH                  
WEAKENS. BASED ON THIS HAVE DIMINISHED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THE                 
DAY. EVENTUALLY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD                  
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...AND                       
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.                          
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT SAT THROUGH MON. THIS                
MAY CAUSE FRONT TO STALL/DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA SAT               
INTO SUN. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED CHANCE                
POP OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SAT. BY SUN...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH              
RIDGING NEAR SURFACE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO GO               
WITH A DRY FORECAST SUN INTO MON.                                               
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPS                    
POSSIBLY TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER            
HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE A RETURN TO MUCH               
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR            
STILL HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA...WE SHOULD              
BE IN FOR ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND                       
VISIBILITIES. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH THE IFR                     
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND            
WITH LIGHT TO CALM AIR AT THE SURFACE...TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW              
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z-09Z. THESE LOW CIGS/VIS WILL MIX OUT              
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SURFACE                
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. GFS/NAM BUFR            
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY...CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO              
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL                   
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NAM BUFR                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT IN THE                
COASTAL PLAIN WITH A SATURATED NEAR-SFC LAYER AND 15KT ENE/NE FLOW              
IN THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER AND              
SREF PROBABILITIES FOR CIGS < 1KFT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE UNDER               
5-10%. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS                
OUT OF THE FAY/RWI TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL               
SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.           
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY                 
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING                
MVFR/IFR VIS IN FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS               
(FAY/RWI) THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED               
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH             
AUGUST 27... 26.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT RALEIGH-DURHAM... 62.                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR GREENSBORO THROUGH                 
AUGUST 27... 24.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT GREENSBORO... 46.                                                         
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105.                                                             
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 27TH... WAS 84.5F (7.3 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.5F (7.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE                 
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH IF AT ALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.               
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD                
TO IMPROVEMENTS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF                       
SEPTEMBER.                                                                      
THROUGH AUGUST 27...THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND                        
DEPARTURE FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.42"                
BELOW NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 27...THE RAINFALL               
TOTAL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.91 (2.35" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE                
RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED...THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE                   
DRIEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                     
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJF                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
LONG TERM...DJF/WSS                                                             
AVIATION...BV                                                                   
CLIMATE...STAFF                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
156 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                 
TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL BUILD SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A               
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING DRY AND                    
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                            
SFC RUC STREAMLINES FROM THE RUC INDICATES SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY ON.  THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL DRIFT OFF THE              
COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE RUC AND THE WRF NOW INDICATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS             
BY TUE MORNING. WITH THE AID OF FORCING FROM ABOVE AND SFC                      
CONVERGENCE...THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE ENGINE OVER THE WATERS SHULD             
EASILY FIRE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE                      
WATER...AND EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A QUICK DROP TO               
ISOLATED OR NULL CHANCES ESPECIALLY WHEN U GET WEST OF THE I-95                 
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT WITH MSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME               
GOOD CANDIDATES FOR AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
THE DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE WESTERN ILM COUNTIES BY THE MODELS                
OVERNIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...AND THERE4 HAVE STAYED WITH            
THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FOR THE FOG/POSSIBLY DENSE VIA FOG             
STABILITY OUTPUT FROM 00Z RAOB SOUNDINGS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON PACKAGE CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. DIFFUSE                 
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN A FOCUS            
FOR CONVECTION. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUR                     
CONSIDERABLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.                        
INHERITED POPS HAD THE TEMPORAL TREND LAID OUT NICELY WITH HIGHEST              
VALUES IN THE MORNING HOURS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST               
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH LOWER VALUES. TWEAKED POPS DOWN              
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
WORTH NOTING IS THE FEATURE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING OFF CAPE FEAR LATE            
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS              
FEEDBACK.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE NICE DAY TO HOPEFULLY DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS              
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO                
UPPER 80S UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL LOOKING FOR A TRANSITION INTO AN EAST COAST UPPER TROF BY THE             
WEEKEND.  SFC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER SLOPPY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODEL             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING.  THIS WILL BE THE            
HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND NO              
MENTION OF PRECIP.                                                              
GFS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA...NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE             
COAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z SAT.   HPC FORECAST IS FASTER AND MORE                    
CONVINCING WITH THE FROPA.  WILL NOT BITE ON THE DRY MEX POPS FOR               
FRIDAY AND KEEP THE CHANCE IN THERE...AND CARRY IT ON INTO SATURDAY.            
DRY FORECAST SUN-MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW CLIMO.  BELIEVE THAT THE             
BUST POTENTIAL LIES IN THE FRONT BEING ABLE TO GET FARTHER SOUTH                
THAN ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD CUT INTO THE SATURDAY PRECIP POTENTIAL            
AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN EVEN COOLER WEEKEND TEMPS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
TAFS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG            
AND/OR LOW STRATUS THRU EARLY MORNING. OVERALL FOR TODAY THERE WILL             
BE PERIODIC CLOUD DECKS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LOWER               
CHC OF PCP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW             
DAYS. THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS THROUGH                 
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                             
THE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE             
ILM WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD LIKELY               
BECOMING NE 10 KT. SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE              
IN DIRECTION DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT...BUT WILL              
ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT A PREDOMINATE DIRECTION. A 2 FOOT 10-12 SEC                
PERIOD ESE SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.                    
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                            
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS                   
TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO              
BE 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS VIA 925/850MB PROGS              
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS               
WILL REMAIN BENIGN WITH A 2-3 FT. RANGE.                                        
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH WIND            
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.  WIND DIRECTION WILL            
BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY THE SEABREEZE THU INTO FRI. LATEST GFS DOES             
NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL SAT MORNING...AND              
EVEN AFTER IT DOES THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SURGE BEHIND IT.                      
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK/DCH                                                              
NEAR TERM...DCH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...MAC/DCH                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND              
LINGER ALONG THE BORDER BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.                  
THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER                 
THE COASTAL PLAIN ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH                    
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO               
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DUE                
TO THE FACT THERE IS NO BIG PUSH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL               
VIRGINIA. THUS THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST... AIDING IN KEEPING                     
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO                   
RAISE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THE               
PRESENT TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL SUGGEST A TRANQUIL                
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO             
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DRIER, MORE STABLE, AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS            
WAYS SWD ON N-NE FLOW. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND               
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE                
FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THROUGH THE PERIOD            
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO NON-EXISTENT.                                          
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE A FEW METERS EACH DAY SO THAT WE ARE             
PUSHING 1430M BY THU. MAX TEMPS TUE/WED IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE                 
LOWER 90S WHILE MAX TEMPS THU 90-95 EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD. A S/W                 
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-FRI WILL TEMPORARILY              
AMPLIFY A L/W TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRI. THIS                   
FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NC FRI.                
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FRI/FRI NIGHT.                              
L/W TROUGH BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT SAT THROUGH MON. THIS MAY CAUSE              
FRONT TO STALL/DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA SAT INTO SUN.               
THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED CHANCE POP OVER THE             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SAT. BY SUN...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH RIDGING NEAR              
SURFACE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER MORE STABLE AIR TO GO WITH A DRY                 
FORECAST SUN INTO MON.                                                          
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH TEMPS                    
POSSIBLY TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER            
HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT. HOWEVER, DO NOT FORESEE A RETURN TO MUCH                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE            
AND POSSIBLE SUPPORT FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K                   
SURFACE HAS PRODUCED PATCHY SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...                   
TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED THIS MENTION FOR THE               
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT RWI... BUT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY               
OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS DRY AIR PUSHES IN SLOWLY FROM            
THE NORTH... THE SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOULD SHOULD WANE TOWARD                    
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... THE WEATHER REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINS               
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND                  
GROUND ARE NOT AS MOIST. NEVERTHELESS... WITH A STAGNANT PATTERN OF             
A WEAK TROUGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER            
AIR STILL HOLDING JUST TO OUR NORTH... WE SHOULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER              
NIGHT OF DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... AS WE SAW LAST             
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH THE               
IFR CONDITIONS... BUT BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND RUC FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM AIR AT THE SURFACE... TAFS WILL                
CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z-09Z. THESE LOW CEILINGS               
WILL MIX OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AS              
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION THAT                 
FIRES TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH              
OF THE AREA WITH DEPARTING WEAK FRONT. -GIH                                     
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PREDAWN STRATUS             
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1000-850MB LAYER WINDS FROM ENE.                
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT             
OF CONVECTION. -CBL                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH             
AUGUST 27... 26.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT RALEIGH DURHAM... 62.                                                     
TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR GREENSBORO THROUGH                 
AUGUST 27... 24.                                                                
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST                
27 AT GREENSBORO... 46.                                                         
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105.                                                             
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 26TH... WAS 84.7F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.6F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT             
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... THERE            
ARE SOME CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS                
THIS WEEK... AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A MAJOR CHANGE IN            
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES               
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE COMING DAYS.                 
THROUGH AUGUST 26... THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND DEPARTURE             
FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.30" BELOW                    
NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE RAINFALL TOTAL              
FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.91 (2.23" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE RAINFALL             
TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED... THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIEST                    
AUGUST`S ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                           
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BSD                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
CLIMATE...STAFF                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
954 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT               
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG            
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE                      
NORTH...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                            
SFC RUC STREAMLINES FROM THE RUC INDICATES SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE            
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY ON.  THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL DRIFT OFF THE              
COAST OVERNIGHT WHERE RUC AND THE WRF NOW INDICATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS             
BY TUE MORNING. WITH THE AID OF FORCING FROM ABOVE AND SFC                      
CONVERGENCE...THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE ENGINE OVER THE WATERS SHULD             
EASILY FIRE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE                      
WATER...AND EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A QUICK DROP TO               
ISOLATED OR NULL CHANCES ESPECIALLY WHEN U GET WEST OF THE I-95                 
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT WITH MSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME               
GOOD CANDIDATES FOR AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
THE DRIER AIR WORKED INTO THE WESTERN ILM COUNTIES BY THE MODELS                
OVERNIGHT SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...AND THERE4 HAVE STAYED WITH            
THE MOISTER ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FOR THE FOG/POSSIBLY DENSE VIA FOG             
STABILITY OUTPUT FROM 00Z RAOB SOUNDINGS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                           
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON PACKAGE CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. DIFFUSE                 
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN A FOCUS            
FOR CONVECTION. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUR                     
CONSIDERABLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.                        
INHERITED POPS HAD THE TEMPORAL TREND LAID OUT NICELY WITH HIGHEST              
VALUES IN THE MORNING HOURS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST               
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH LOWER VALUES. TWEAKED POPS DOWN              
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
WORTH NOTING IS THE FEATURE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING OFF CAPE FEAR LATE            
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS              
FEEDBACK.                                                                       
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE NICE DAY TO HOPEFULLY DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS              
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO                
UPPER 80S UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
STILL LOOKING FOR A TRANSITION INTO AN EAST COAST UPPER TROF BY THE             
WEEKEND.  SFC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER SLOPPY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODEL             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING.  THIS WILL BE THE            
HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND NO              
MENTION OF PRECIP.                                                              
GFS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA...NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE             
COAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z SAT.   HPC FORECAST IS FASTER AND MORE                    
CONVINCING WITH THE FROPA.  WILL NOT BITE ON THE DRY MEX POPS FOR               
FRIDAY AND KEEP THE CHANCE IN THERE...AND CARRY IT ON INTO SATURDAY.            
DRY FORECAST SUN-MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW CLIMO.  BELIEVE THAT THE             
BUST POTENTIAL LIES IN THE FRONT BEING ABLE TO GET FARTHER SOUTH                
THAN ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD CUT INTO THE SATURDAY PRECIP POTENTIAL            
AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN EVEN COOLER WEEKEND TEMPS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                       
INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE HIGHLIGHT BY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR                      
CONDITIONS FROM FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT/THRU SEVERAL HRS               
AFTER SUNRISE TUE. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE MVFR FROM FOG BUT            
WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AFTER                   
07Z...WITH CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BEING THE               
AIRWAYS TO STAY AWAY FROM. THIS CONVECTION WILL LAST UP TO SEVERAL              
HRS AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. TUE OVERALL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY PERIODIC             
CLOUD DECKS AT MVFR CONDITIONS...AND A LOWER SHOT OF CONVECTION                 
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THAN WHATS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW DAYS.                     
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...                                             
THE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE             
ILM WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD LIKELY               
BECOMING NE 10 KT. SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE              
IN DIRECTION DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT...BUT WILL              
ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT A PREDOMINATE DIRECTION. A 2 FOOT 10-12 SEC                
PERIOD ESE SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.                    
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                            
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS                   
TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO              
BE 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS VIA 925/850MB PROGS              
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS               
WILL REMAIN BENIGN WITH A 2-3 FT. RANGE.                                        
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH WIND            
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.  WIND DIRECTION WILL            
BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY THE SEABREEZE THU INTO FRI. LATEST GFS DOES             
NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL SAT MORNING...AND              
EVEN AFTER IT DOES THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SURGE BEHIND IT.                      
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK/DCH                                                              
NEAR TERM...DCH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...RAS                                                                 
AVIATION...MAC/DCH                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
221 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING                
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MERGE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE                  
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY            
STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...             
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL                  
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY ARE:                                      
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE                 
COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG AND SE OF THE EXPECTED WEAK COLD                         
FRONT/TROUGH... WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH.                               
COOLER TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE... DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND            
LOW LEVEL NE-E FLOW... RALEIGH-DURHAM HAS HIT AT LEAST 90 DEGREES IN            
ALL BUT 1 OF THE FIRST 26 DAYS OF THE MONTH... TODAY SHOULD BE                  
NUMBER 2. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.                                            
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAD BEEN                
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SURFACE TROUGH/OLD CONVECTIVE                   
OUTFLOWS THAT EXTENDED NE-SE THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF SC/NC...               
DEPICTED BEST BY THE THETA-E ANALYSIS. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY                     
FROM FAY TO GSB AND ILM WILL HAVE TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR THROUGH 400               
AM... AS IT IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.                                  
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AT 200 AM EDT STRETCHED FROM THE NC/VA                    
MOUNTAINS NE INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS WAS DEPICTED NICELY BY THE                  
TIGHT EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE/SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT.              
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S OVER PA AND INTO MD. THERE WERE                      
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT UP UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT               
AROUND THE DCA AREA. THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER                   
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL AREA AND THE              
ACTUAL COLD FRONT (DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 70S OVER                  
MUCH OF OUR REGION).                                                            
SINCE THE UPPER SUPPORT VIA THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON               
THE WANE TODAY... THE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE LOW                 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SINCE                
THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH OR CONVERGENCE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER              
THE COASTAL PLAIN... IT WILL BE THIS REGION THAT WILL HAVE THE                  
HIGHEST POP (60-70 PERCENT). THE 20-30 PERCENT POP OVER THE                     
PIEDMONT APPEARS JUSTIFIED AS THERE WILL STILL BE RESIDUAL RICH                 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL                 
LEAD TO POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT. QPF WILL LEAN TOWARD THE               
00Z/27 GFS THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH BASIN AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50 OVER              
THE COASTAL PLAIN... LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CONVECTIVE TOTALS. THE WEAK              
MEAN STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PW`S... (PW`S ARE EXPECTED                
TO REMAIN IN THE 2 INCH RANGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN)... WILL LEAD              
TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QPF TAPERS RAPIDLY TO THE                   
NW... WITH ONLY 0.01 DEPICTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.                     
THE EXPECTED CLOUDS... NE-E FLOW... AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL                 
LIMIT HIGHS TODAY. THE COOLEST MET GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED OVER THE               
PIEDMONT (MID 80S). IF CLOUDS HOLD IN ALL DAY... THAT WILL BE A                 
STRUGGLE. HIGHS IN THE 86-88 RANGE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN              
BEFORE THE CONVECTION COOLS IT OFF.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
THIS APPEARS TO BE A RATHER MURKY PERIOD AS THE MODELS AGREE THAT               
THE OLD WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE                  
COASTAL PLAIN OR COASTAL AREA TUESDAY. IT SHOULD STILL SERVE TO                 
FOCUS SOME CONVECTION AGAIN TUESDAY... OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.               
BACK OVER THE PIEDMONT ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO                   
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS. A LIGHT NE-E FLOW                 
IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW IN SCOURING OUT. IT MAY BE LATE TUESDAY                
OR EVEN WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEFINITIVE DRYING MIXES DOWN TO THE                    
SURFACE. STRATUS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT              
EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN FALL JUST SHORT OF 90                 
MOST AREAS.                                                                     
THE 00Z/27 AUGUST GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE                   
FEEDBACK BETWEEN 06Z THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IN GENERATING HEAVY RAIN               
OVER THE SE... AND WAS GENERALLY DISCARDED FOR THAT TIME FRAME.                 
FOR WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL                 
BRING LESS CLOUDINESS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE GONE FROM THE SE...               
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED PM SHOWER OR                    
STORM. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER               
90S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON                    
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING... INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PM                      
CONVECTION THEN. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
THURSDAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE.                         
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THE EXPECTED               
DEVELOPMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN              
U.S. LATE THIS WEEK COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS...WHILE A               
COOL DOWN IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IS STILL ANTICIPATED                          
SATURDAY... THE MAGNITUDE OF COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS                  
EARLIER THINKING. THIS TRANSLATES TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR               
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY NAM AND GFS MODEL                
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY FIELDS...SHOULD RESULT IN             
AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.  RUC                
925MB MOISTURE FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF HIGH                   
MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVER TIME THIS MORNING.  MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT...WITH ANY SUNSHINE...CU QUICKLY                        
DEVELOPING.  WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY                  
MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH MVFR PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE              
TRIAD AND KRDU BY AFTERNOON.  IT WOULD APPEAR THE LEAST CHANCES FOR             
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KINT WHERE THE RUC BARELY ALLOWS             
FOR HIGH 925MB RH BY 12Z.  IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS            
KFAY TO HAVE CEILINGS MUCH ABOVE HIGH VALUES OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON             
DUE TO HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY.                                                                            
ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND THE GFS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL AND THE                    
POTENTIAL LOCATION FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
OVERNIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST DECENT                     
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.  AS A RESULT...06Z TAFS SHOW                      
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR                  
CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST ONLY SHOWS CB             
AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND DRYING                  
MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST BY THE NAM AND THE GFS TOWARD THE TRIAD...               
AND MID-LEVEL NVA FORECAST AS WELL.  EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.             
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF              
THE REST OF THE WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST                
26... 25.                                                                       
THE TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST 26 AT RALEIGH            
DURHAM... 61.                                                                   
TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS IN AUGUST FOR GREENSBORO THROUGH AUGUST 26...              
24.                                                                             
THE TOTAL 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON THROUGH AUGUST 26 AT                    
GREENSBORO... 47.                                                               
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105.                                                             
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 26TH... WAS 84.7F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.6F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT             
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... THERE            
ARE SOME CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENTS                
THIS WEEK... AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A MAJOR CHANGE IN            
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES               
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS            
IS GREAT NEWS TO A REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED SOME OF THE HOTTEST              
AND DRIEST WEATHER ON RECORD BETWEEN AUGUST 1 AND AUGUST 26.                    
THROUGH AUGUST 26... THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND DEPARTURE             
FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.30" BELOW                    
NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE RAINFALL TOTAL              
FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.91 (2.23" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE RAINFALL             
TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED... THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIEST                    
AUGUST`S ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                           
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PWB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PWB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...PWB                                                                
LONG TERM...PWB                                                                 
AVIATION...DJF                                                                  
CLIMATE...PWB/DJF                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
854 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH                
CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND                
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REALITY WITH BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS                   
FROM ALBEMARLE EAST TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS              
ADJUSTED AS WELL...OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES. LOW TEMPERATURES                  
TONIGHT 70 TO 74.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                          
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF FORECAST                 
AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY.                   
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FAR                      
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ONCE                      
AGAIN...WINDS ALOFT NOT IMPRESSIVE SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
PULSE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE               
STRONGEST CELLS. DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELD...MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINFALL IN PLACES THAT EXPERIENCE MORE THAN ONE STORM. CLOUD                   
COVERAGE MONDAY WILL HELP TO DETER TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE                 
90S AREA WIDE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 87 TO 91.                                   
TUESDAY...NORTH FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS WILL SLOWLY DRY                  
OUT AIR MASS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS                     
DISTINCT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN THE                   
FORECAST AREA BUT BEST POSSIBILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES.                                                                       
FOR WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION.                  
THIS WILL PLACE A POCKET OF DRIER AIR OVER FORECAST AREA LIMITING               
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK CONFLUENCE OR UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERN                
PIEDMONT MAY INITIATE A STORM OR TWO LATE WEDNESDAY BUT CHANCE                  
NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.                                              
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL               
WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING 3 TO 4 METERS EACH                   
DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY...AND 90 TO 95           
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND               
FRIDAY WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA              
BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF SYSTEM...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                   
THURSDAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE. MODEL                   
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH                
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS...WHILE A COOL DOWN IN MAXIMUM              
TEMPERATURES STILL ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE                        
MAGNITUDE OF COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS EARLIER THINKING.                
THUS...HAVE RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
FOR THE REGION.                                                                 
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE BEST ON FRIDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT IN              
VICINITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE                
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUGGEST A MENTION OF A POP FOR SATURDAY AND                   
SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF                  
NORTH CAROLINA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED ALL TAF                    
SITES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... HOWEVER THIS THREAT HAS ALL                
BUT ENDED WITH THE WANING HEATING AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS                     
CONVECTION INTO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN. ONLY THE FAY TAF SITE               
IS STILL IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF ISOLATED LINGERING STORMS TO ITS                  
NORTHWEST AND WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS MENTION FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR                
TWO. WINDS HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO TRACK AS VARIOUS OUTFLOWS HAVE                    
PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES AND PRODUCED                    
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH... MOST RECENTLY AT FAY WHICH JUST SAW OUTFLOW                
PASSAGE THAT SWITCHED WINDS AROUND TO GUSTY NORTHEAST. THESE                    
OUTFLOWS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY LEAVING A PREVAILING WIND PATTERN               
CENTERED AROUND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NC. WINDS               
HAVE GONE AROUND TO EAST AND NORTHEAST AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI... WHILE              
WINDS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHWEST. AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THESE WINDS ARE ALREADY                    
STARTING TO PULL DOWN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR STRATUS... AND BASED ON                
NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT                
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. HAVE TRENDED CEILINGS DOWN TO                 
IFR AFTER 08Z AT THESE SITES BUT HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT FAY                  
BASED ON THE DRIER LOW LEVELS NOTED ON THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND A                  
LESS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VISIBILITIES MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC.               
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE STRATUS...                 
BUT RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE OPPOSITE... MORE                    
STRATUS THAN FOG. LAST NIGHT... THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS                
UPSTREAM AND FOG WAS MOSTLY MVFR AT WORST... SO HAVE FAVORED THIS               
SOLUTION... GOING NO WORSE THAN MVFR VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...                   
AVIATION INTERESTS WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS AND LATER                    
FORECASTS CLOSELY... AS PATCHY IFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE                
CARRIED NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT LIGHT/VARIABLE AT FAY.                 
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z MONDAY              
MORNING WITH HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING... THEN SCATTERED TO             
BROKEN CUMULUS SHOULD FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.             
HAVE PLACED THE ONLY MENTION OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AT FAY              
WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH                   
FORECAST CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG... AS OPPOSED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER                
NORTHWEST WHERE MID LEVEL DRYING WILL DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER TO                
BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH CAPES OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.                      
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS.              
OTHERWISE... GENERALLY A DRYING AND STABILIZING PROFILE WILL                    
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -GIH                          
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT             
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... THERE            
ARE SOME MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO                       
IMPROVEMENTS THIS WEEK... AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A               
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLING            
TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE                 
COMING DAYS. THIS IS GREAT NEWS TO A REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED                
SOME OF THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST WEATHER ON RECORD BETWEEN AUGUST 1               
AND AUGUST 25.                                                                  
THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AND DEPARTURE             
FROM THE 30 YEAR NORMAL AT GREENSBORO WAS 0.77" (2.18" BELOW                    
NORMAL). AT RALEIGH-DURHAM THROUGH AUGUST 25... THE RAINFALL TOTAL              
FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.85 (2.17" BELOW NORMAL). IF THESE RAINFALL             
TOTALS REMAINED UNCHANGED... THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE DRIEST                    
AUGUST`S ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                           
HERE ARE THE DRIEST AUGUSTS AT GSO AND RDU ON RECORD:                           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  0.71/1972         0.81/1950                                                 
2)  1.13/1979         1.01/1997                                                 
3)  1.19/1962         1.13/1984                                                 
4)  1.40/1932         1.31/1956                                                 
5)  1.44/1983         1.52/1976                                                 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH ACROSS              
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ON AUGUST 21... RDU TIED ITS ALL TIME DAILY             
RECORD HIGH OF 105. AND TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE            
NORMAL... AND COULD COME CLOSE OR BREAK DAILY RECORDS.                          
EVEN IF NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
MONTH... RDU AND GSO WOULD BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST              
ON RECORD.                                                                      
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO...            
USING DATA THROUGH AUGUST 25TH... WAS 84.6F (7.4 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL)...AND 83.7F (7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) RESPECTIVELY.                    
HERE ARE THE TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD:           
        GSO              RDU                                                    
    (SINCE 1929)     (SINCE 1944)                                               
1)  80.0/1975         80.6/1995                                                 
2)  79.7/1988         80.5/2006                                                 
3)  79.4/2006         80.3/1988                                                 
4)  79.4/1995         80.2/2005                                                 
5)  79.3/2005         80.0/1999                                                 
IN ADDITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR AUGUST 26TH...                               
GSO... 98 (1975)                                                                
RDU... 96 (1954)                                                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
LONG TERM...WSS                                                                 
AVIATION...HARTFIELD                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
850 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE                  
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER            
WILLISTON AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.                                                     
UPDATE TONIGHT MAINLY CONCERNS CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. HAVE               
LOWERED THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND REMOVED              
THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND                 
NOTING POSITION OF RUC FORECAST SURFACE PATTERN AT 12Z...HAVE ALSO              
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW                
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S UPSTREAM OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA            
WHICH SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISN DEW POINT ALREADY              
AT 37 AT 8 PM. WITH SOME UPPER 30S FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE                
NORTHWEST...FEEL A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WOULD BE JUSTIFIED. WE`RE            
GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT...WE             
CAN SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOW LYING AND PROTECTED AREAS.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                       
THE SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH THAT PRODUCED TODAYS LIGHT STRATIFORM                  
RAIN WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND                     
WARMING TEMPERATURES....AND LATER IN THE PERIOD CLIMBING DEWPOINTS.             
EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AND AN INCREASING NUMBER OF                 
SHORTWAVES WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF                
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NOCTURNAL JET IS PROGGED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH               
TO KEEP SOME OF THESE STORMS ALIVE OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                  
THE UPPER RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEIGHTS              
COLLAPSING AFTER SATURDAY AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING GENERALLY                 
ZONAL. THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED/ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF              
UPPER WAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.  UNDER THIS             
REGIME...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES/PRECIPITATION WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT            
THE LATEST GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY                     
EVENING/NIGHT...AND A SECOND COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE                
MINIMALLY CAPPED SATURDAY...BUT QUICKLY WEAKENS SATURDAY EVENING.               
HAVE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING SAT NIGHT INTO                        
SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE            
CONSOLIDATED NEAR/ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND SOMEWHAT MORE                   
SLUGGISH FURTHER SOUTH. WOULD EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER/LAG               
BEHIND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA VERSUS THE NORTHERN               
CWA. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA             
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO                  
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND              
THIS DISTURBANCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF                   
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER AND            
VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TWH                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
739 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER SE MANITOBA MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.                  
BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EAST AND -SHRA AREA DECREASING                
AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS. BASED ON CLEARING OF MID                    
CLOUDS AND PCPN GOING AWAY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS TO REMOVE POPS AND                
TO TWEEK SKY COVER DOWN SOME. OVERALL THROUGH PREV FCST LOOKING                 
REAL GOOD. GOOD DRYING TONIGHT SO WIDESPREAD 40S LOOKING GOOD AS                
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY CLEAR TONIGHT AS CU DISSIPATES. SOME MID                   
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU SE B.C. INTO              
SRN ALBERTA IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN ND WED MORNING BUT                      
MOISTURE WITH IT WEAKENS SO ANY MID CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL               
BE PATCHY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SW SASK INTO ERN MT AT 00Z WILL                   
DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH AXIS MOVING THRU ERN ND WED AFTN.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TUE NIGHT - FRI)... KEY CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM                
WILL BE THE DISSIPATION OF A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM               
NEAR STEELE...NORTH DAKOTA TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS IN MINNESOTA.               
THESE SHOWERS ARE WELL REPRESENTED BY THE RUC80 H700 DEFORMATION                
FIELD...WHICH IS SHOWING ABOUT A 10 TO 12 UNIT BAND OF DEFORMATION              
ALONG THE AREA OF SHOWERS. THE RUC40 IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG              
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE H700 LEVEL ALONG THIS BAND. BOTH                   
FIELDS SHOW THE FORCING BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AROUND 21Z...AND                 
NEARLY GONE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE               
CWA TIL 03Z TO COVER ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT. ATTM NO              
MENTION OF FOG FOR THE WESTERN CWA AS DRIER AIR SHOULD COME IN ON               
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                                             
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES                
IN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE THE BIGGEST TEMP CHALLENGE AS THE                 
NORTHWEST DID NOT HEAT UP A LOT TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                       
THUS...WENT 4 TO 5 DEG BELOW PREV FORECAST AND MAV GUIDANCE IN THE              
NORTHWEST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ELSEWHERE.                                      
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WENT PREDOMINANTLY WITH MAV GUIDANCE            
FOR MAX TEMPS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR THURSDAY                
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK UP INTO THE                 
80S. THE 12Z NAM DID SHOW A DRY TROUGH COME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA                 
THU AFTERNOON. GFS KEPT SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS I WENT WITH THE GFS               
SOLUTION AS IT BETTER REPRESENTED CONTINUITY. EXPECT TO KEEP THE                
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID 80 TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI.                                
LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES.  500MB RIDGE SHIFTS E ON             
SAT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
CROSSING THROUGH N PLAINS...SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO KEPT POPS IN                
FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...HIGH                    
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN              
THE ROCKIES...READY TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE            
N PLAINS ON MON INTO TUE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...EXPECT TO REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST.                                               
AVIATION...ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH AREA EARLY                
THIS EVENING WITH NO REDUCTION IN VSBYS OR CIGS BELOW VFR. SC DECK              
SHOULD START TO FALL APART AROUND SUNSET...WITH SKC PREDOMINATING               
UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN COULD POP SOME CU. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL                
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TUE NIGHT - FRI)... KEY CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM               
WILL BE THE DISSIPATION OF A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM               
NEAR STEELE...NORTH DAKOTA TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS IN MINNESOTA.               
THESE SHOWERS ARE WELL REPRESENTED BY THE RUC80 H700 DEFORMATION                
FIELD...WHICH IS SHOWING ABOUT A 10 TO 12 UNIT BAND OF DEFORMATION              
ALONG THE AREA OF SHOWERS. THE RUC40 IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG              
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE H700 LEVEL ALONG THIS BAND. BOTH                   
FIELDS SHOW THE FORCING BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AROUND 21Z...AND                 
NEARLY GONE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE               
CWA TIL 03Z TO COVER ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT. ATTM NO              
MENTION OF FOG FOR THE WESTERN CWA AS DRIER AIR SHOULD COME IN ON               
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                                             
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES                
IN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE THE BIGGEST TEMP CHALLENGE AS THE                 
NORTHWEST DID NOT HEAT UP A LOT TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                       
THUS...WENT 4 TO 5 DEG BELOW PREV FORECAST AND MAV GUIDANCE IN THE              
NORTHWEST...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ELSEWHERE.                                      
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WENT PREDOMINANTLY WITH MAV GUIDANCE            
FOR MAX TEMPS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR THURSDAY                
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK UP INTO THE                 
80S. THE 12Z NAM DID SHOW A DRY TROUGH COME ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA                 
THU AFTERNOON. GFS KEPT SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS I WENT WITH THE GFS               
SOLUTION AS IT BETTER REPRESENTED CONTINUITY. EXPECT TO KEEP THE                
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID 80 TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD                
AGREEMENT...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES.  500MB RIDGE SHIFTS E ON             
SAT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
CROSSING THROUGH N PLAINS...SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SO KEPT POPS IN                
FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...HIGH                    
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN              
THE ROCKIES...READY TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE            
N PLAINS ON MON INTO TUE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...EXPECT TO REMAIN ABOVE              
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH AREA EARLY               
THIS EVENING WITH NO REDUCTION IN VSBYS OR CIGS BELOW VFR. SC DECK              
SHOULD START TO FALL APART AROUND SUNSET...WITH SKC PREDOMINATING               
UNTIL WED MORNING WHEN COULD POP SOME CU. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL                
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/NG                                                                     
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1023 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE               
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION                       
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORTS RAISING MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO               
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH EASTERLY LLVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM               
WARMING QUITE AS HIGH AS SHOWN IN THE MAV. THE 12 UTC GSO SOUNDING              
WAS QUITE MOIST UP TO ABOUT 675 MB...THEN THE DRIED OUT                         
DRAMATICALLY. THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER IS ABOUT 75 MB SHALLOWER             
THAN YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY UPDRAFTS OVER THE PIEDMONT               
AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO ENTRAIN TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO SURVIVE AND                
I/LL KEEP POPS OUT OF THOSE AREAS. THE FFC SOUNDING WAS SATURATED               
ALL THE WAY UP WITH A PW OF 2.07 INCHES. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE                 
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE AS ONE GETS CLOSER TO GA. THE LATEST RUC                   
DOESN/T SHOW THIS PW GRADIENT MOVING MUCH DURING THE DAY...SO I/LL              
KEEP CHANCE POPS ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE NC             
MTNS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER                   
FORCING...SO THERE SHOULD BE SCT CONVECTION AGAIN THERE TODAY. IN               
FACT...WITH HIGHER MAX TEMPS AND DRY MID LEVELS...THE PULSE SEVERE              
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YDAY.                   
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT MODELS             
WANT TO KEEP WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO SW CWA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OVER MTNS WHERE WEAK              
UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT MORNING LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70                 
PIEDMONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MTNS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
BOTH THE 28/00 UTC RUNS OF THE OP GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO HANDLE                    
SIMILARLY THE SWWD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST                
WEDNESDAY AND THE COMMENCEMENT OF FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE CWFA.                
WE ACTUALLY WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITHIN              
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME. DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS DEPICTED QUITE               
DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALTHOUGH I DO FEEL THAT              
A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT IS LIKELY...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACRS THE                 
MTNS. SENSIBLE WX FCST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LOW TO SLIGHT                   
CHANCES FOR TSTMS...MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS/FTHLS WITH MAX TEMPS                   
CONTINUING TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.                                             
HAVE MADE AN UPWARD TWEAK TO THE NIGHTTIME POPS WEDNESDAY ACRS THE              
MTNS BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT WEAK IMPULSES COULD ALLOW FOR                
LINGERING OR RENEWED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH THE                 
28/00 UTC OP GFS/NAM AND 27/21 UTC SREF GENERATE SOME TYPE OF                   
RESPONSE TO THE WEAK FORCING PRESENT ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA THROUGH              
12 UTC THU.                                                                     
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CREEP LOWER ON THURSDAY AS CWFA REMAINS               
WITHIN NW FLOW ALONG BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC                   
TROUGHING. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE             
REGION AND WITH RH ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...TSTM             
CHANCES WILL BE EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWFA.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
DEEP RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH L/WV TROUGHING             
OVER THE EAST COAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED                 
TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...SUPPLYING A                    
CONTINUOUS NE SFC WIND. PLAN TO KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS OVER THE CWFA             
FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO COOL              
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD                  
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AS THE SFC FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH.                
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...YIELDING            
LITTLE INSTABILITY PASS THE 700 MB INVERSION. SCHC POPS LIMITED TO              
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MAINTAINED.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NE THAN E OR SE SO UPSLOPE MINIMIZED THIS                   
MORNING WHILE SFC OBS AND SAT TRENDS SHOW NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER                  
DEVELOPING. MVFR FOG PIEDMONT...IFR AT KAVL...SHOULD LIFT BY 13-15Z.            
WEAK UPPER FLOW WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS SO FCST POPS ARE ONLY SLIGHT               
CHANCE FOR W CWA WITH A CHANCE AT KAVL...SO NO MENTION AT ANY SITES.            
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING E TO SE THIS AFTN...LIGHT N                
WINDS AT KAVL EARLY THEN TURNING S THIS AFTN.                                   
AVIATION OUTLOOK...THRU SAT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN                      
FROM THE N FOR MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE               
NORTH THU INTO FRI. PATCHY MORNING FOG PSBL EACH DAY...ESP KAVL.                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB                                                           
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...CSH/NED                                                             
AVIATION...RB                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
143 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO EASTERN               
NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY.  AS THE FRONT             
DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY                 
BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN MID WEEK.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM              
NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LOOKING AT THE MOTION OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE LATEST FEW VSBL SAT                  
IMAGES...LLVL TROF AXIS CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ABOUT RALEIGH DOWN TO               
COLUMBIA. LATEST RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOST OF THE SHORT             
WAVE ENERGY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE               
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. NONE OF THE FORCING IS VERY STRONG...AND            
THE LLVL FLOW PROBABLY WILL BACK SOME THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING IN THE            
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES              
AND FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CHANCES DEFINITELY LOOK BETTER              
DOWN TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND LOW COUNTRY. THIS IS HOW POPS ARE                  
CURRENTLY ORIENTED...AND WHILE I THINK THEY ARE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH            
SIDE...I PLAN TO KEEP THEM BASICALLY AS IS FOR THE UPDATE.                      
THIS MAY BE THE DAY WHERE WE BREAK OUR STRING OF 27 CONSECUTIVE DAYS            
OF 90 DEGREE OR GREATER MAX TEMPS AT GSP AND CLT. THIS IS THE 4TH               
LONGEST STREAK SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT HERE IN THE GSP METRO               
AREA AND THE 3RD LONGEST STRING AT CLT. I/LL BE VERY HAPPY IF WE                
DON/T MAKE IT TO NUMBER 2 AND 3 RESPECTIVELY.                                   
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING             
OVERNIGHT. MORNING LOWS AROUND 70 PIEDMONT...MAINLY 60S MTNS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF            
THE CAROLINAS WILL DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. THE POPS ARE ALIGNED ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE              
FRONT.  NEEDED TO RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE                 
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS              
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DRIER THAN THE NAM...THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSER             
AGREEMENT NOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.  BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT                
MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN MID WEEK THAN PREVIOUS.  IN THE            
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE               
SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AS A TROF               
DROPS IN TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.                             
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE            
NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES BUT NOT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THAT WE HAVE                 
HAD.  RAISED THE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY             
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DISSIPATING FRONT.  RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE            
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO FEED               
CONVECTION WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE MOUNTAINS AND                   
ADJACENT VALLEYS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEP RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE                
WESTERN CONUS WITH L/W TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. GFS AND HPC                    
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND...SUPPLYING CONTINUOUS NE SFC              
WIND. I WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS OVER THE CWA FROM FRI THROUGH THE            
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO SEASONABLE                   
LEVELS. ON MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID                      
ATLANTIC...AS THE SFC FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS            
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...YIELDING LITTLE INSTABILITY            
PASSED A H7 INVERSION. I WILL ADVERTISED JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE               
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OTHER OFFICES...I HAVE ELECTED TO REDEVELOP            
AN MVFR DECK LATER TONIGHT AT KCLT...KHKY AND KGSP AND KGMU - THOUGH            
THAT ASSUMES IT WILL MIX OUT AT SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY THE MOS...BUT THE ABUNDANT                
LLVL MOISTURE...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE HISTORY OF THIS AIRMASS              
ALL IMPLY A GOOD CHANCE OF STRATUS. ONCE CLOUDS DO FORM...IT IS                 
LIKELY THAT THEY WILL VERIFY QUITE A BIT LOWER...THOUGH AS I CAN/T              
TELL HOW LOW...WENT WITH 2KFT FOR NOW. KAVL SHOULD SEE DENSE VALLEY             
FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. KAND LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE              
TOO FAR SW TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT. A LIGHT EAST TO              
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                 
SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN TUE BEFORE                  
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N FOR MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THU-FRI. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS                
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEYS INCLUDING KAVL.                      
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THIS MAY BE THE DAY WHERE WE BREAK OUR STRING OF 27 CONSECUTIVE DAYS            
OF 90 DEGREE OR GREATER MAX TEMPS AT GSP AND CLT. THIS IS THE 4TH               
LONGEST STREAK SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT HERE IN THE GSP METRO               
AREA AND THE 3RD LONGEST STRING AT CLT. I/LL BE VERY HAPPY IF WE                
DON/T MAKE IT TO NUMBER 2 AND 3 RESPECTIVELY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEO                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB                                                           
SHORT TERM...DEO                                                                
LONG TERM...NED                                                                 
AVIATION...MCAVOY                                                               
CLIMATE...MCAVOY                                                                
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
924 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH                  
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT DOWN ACROSS SECTIONS OF GA AS                 
PERSISTENT STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DIE OUT. DESPITE THE SUN GOING                
DOWN...THE STORMS ARE STILL HOLDING THEIR OWN AS LATEST RUC SHOWS               
SOME WEAK 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BEING AN                     
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THAT              
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND              
SURFACE TROF OVER THE MIDLANDS...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.         
AM SEEING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UP I-26 PROPAGATING TO THE SE AND                 
WILL MAKE IT INTO BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES WITHIN THE                   
HOUR. MADE NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR TEMPS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY                  
NIGHT RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE FORCING OF               
THE SURFACE TROUGH...CONVERGENCE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DECENT                 
INSTABILITY PRESENT HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. THE SEA                  
BREEZE WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AND PUSH INLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN              
CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMO AND MODELS ARE ON THE BORDERLINE OF LIKELY              
POPS FOR TOMORROW...BUT HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF THIS.                   
IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT ON MONDAY THE HIGH TEMPERATURES                
WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND FOR                     
MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
A LINGERING SFC TROF AND THE AFTN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WL BE THE              
PRIMARY FOCI FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTM TUE AFTN/EVNG AS A WEAKNESS IN            
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WL BEGIN TO FILTER S            
INTO THE RGN WED AS THE WEAKNESS FILLS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE                
BRIEFLY REBUILDS BACK INTO THE SE STATES. HIGH PWATS AND LGT                    
STEERING FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A CONTINUED RISK FOR HVY RAIN AND WET              
MICROBURSTS. PCPN CHANCES WL BE ON THE DECR WED AFTN INTO THU AS A              
RESULT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR TSTMS WED AFTN WL RESIDE ACROSS SE            
GA WHERE GREATEST LOW-LVL CONVG AND MOISTURE WL RESIDE.                         
THE UPR RIDGE WL BEGIN TO ERODE AND RETROGRADE TO THE W THU AS                  
LONG-WAVE TROFG BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NE STATES. THIS WILL             
ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP S THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLC RGN              
INTO THE FCST AREA THU NGT INTO FRI. THE VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO             
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH...ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE FNT WITH                 
26/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS OFFERING THE SLOWEST SOLN. ATTM PREFER TO                
LEAN CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF                 
WHICH BOTH SHOW FROPA OCCURRING LATE THU NGT OR ERLY FRI MRNG. THE              
FNT IS XPCTD BECOME Q-STNRY ACROSS NRN FL OR FAR SRN SE GA SAT AS               
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK              
OF THE PCPN WELL TO THE S BUT WITH BNDRY FCST TO LINGER NEARBY WL               
NEED TO KEEP A LEAST SLGT CHANCE POPS GOING FRI THROUGH SUN.                    
TEMPS WL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR SLGTLY ABV NORMAL THROUGH THU...                
THEN DROP TO NEAR OR SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL LVLS FOR THE WEEKEND.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
WITH ACTIVITY IN SE GA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MORE CONVECTION                   
FIRING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA...WILL HAVE TO INPUT SOME SH/TS ACTIVITY              
IN THE SAV TAF FOR LATE THIS EVENING. CHS IS A BIGGER QUESTION                  
MARK BUT WILL ELECT TO AT LEAST MENTION CB IN THE TERMINAL FOR                  
LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR TOMORROW ALTHOUGH AM                
GOING WITH VCTS TO MATCH UP WITH A HIGHER POP.                                  
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH                 
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND                
PRE-DAWN SHALLOW GROUND FOG.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY                 
NIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.                 
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF TRANQUIL                    
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT . A                      
FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE               
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS              
IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.                                       
THERE ARE NO MAJOR MARINE ISSUES FOR TUE-FRI WITH WNDS AND SEAS                 
HOLDING WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PY                                                                              
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
826 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO BIG CHANGES                  
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                    
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND                          
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE                         
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.        
AT 20Z...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR        
SISSETON/K8D3 TO HURON/KHON TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE LOW      
LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF KHON ALONG THE FRONT...AND A WARM FRONT               
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WATERTOWN/KATY AND EASTWARD                 
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. RECENTLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN                   
MEANDERING AROUND KATY...WITH KATY MOVING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN                
THE WARM AND COOL SECTORS OF THE LOW. SURFACE CAPE VALUES JUST                  
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE SOARED TO                
OVER 5000 J/KG...WITH THE RUC PROJECTING CAPES OF 8600 J/KG AND                 
CIN VALUES OF 33 J/KG IN THIS AREA BY 21Z. NOT QUITE SURE THAT                  
WILL PAN OUT...BUT EITHER WAY WITH A WEAKENING CAP COULD SEE                    
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD              
VERY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN                   
WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR                      
ALOFT...BACKBUILDING INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN               
CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA. IN                           
ADDITION...SCATTERED STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA...MOSTLY ELEVATED ON                
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...MAY CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SEEING                 
MOSTLY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NEARLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE               
FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.                                          
THE 12/18Z RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE ENERGY MOVING                  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...FURTHER SLOWING IT DOWN AND                 
INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES                      
NORTHEAST ALONG. THUS...INCREASED POPS SOME FOR                                 
THIS...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH                   
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT...ALSO                   
THINK THAT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND                
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FOR                          
AWHILE...LIKELY INHIBITING VIEWING OF TONIGHTS TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE              
THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST                
OF THE FRONT...TONIGHT AS SATURATED AIR CONTINUES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE      
NAM/GFS/RUC INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT               
LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS.              
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT.              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
MOST OF THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN HIGH              
PRESSURE. UNDER THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL              
WITH PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE               
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS                  
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE PLAIN STATES. SURFACE LOW         
FORMS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN                
BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BY SUNDAY...WILL BE SITUATED OVER                 
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE SOUTHWESTWARD               
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND               
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH H7 TEMPERATURES OF +12C. CAP IS WEAKER                
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH H7                   
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +7 TO +10C.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1K FEET WILL CONTINUE ALONG TWEB ROUTES                     
256/257 THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...TAF SITES KPIR/KABR AND KMBG                  
SHOULD REMAIN IFR WITH CIGS MAINLY AOB 15 HUNDRED FEET AGL. THE                 
LOW CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE KATY AREA BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TDK                                                                    
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
348 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                    
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND                          
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE                         
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.        
AT 20Z...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR        
SISSETON/K8D3 TO HURON/KHON TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A SURFACE LOW      
LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF KHON ALONG THE FRONT...AND A WARM FRONT               
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WATERTOWN/KATY AND EASTWARD                 
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. RECENTLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN                   
MEANDERING AROUND KATY...WITH KATY MOVING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN                
THE WARM AND COOL SECTORS OF THE LOW. SURFACE CAPE VALUES JUST                  
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE SOARED TO                
OVER 5000 J/KG...WITH THE RUC PROJECTING CAPES OF 8600 J/KG AND                 
CIN VALUES OF 33 J/KG IN THIS AREA BY 21Z. NOT QUITE SURE THAT                  
WILL PAN OUT...BUT EITHER WAY WITH A WEAKENING CAP COULD SEE                    
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD              
VERY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN                   
WESTERN MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR                      
ALOFT...BACKBUILDING INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN               
CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA. IN                           
ADDITION...SCATTERED STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA...MOSTLY ELEVATED ON                
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...MAY CREEP INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SEEING                 
MOSTLY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MOVING NEARLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE               
FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.                                          
THE 12/18Z RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE ENERGY MOVING                  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...FURTHER SLOWING IT DOWN AND                 
INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES                      
NORTHEAST ALONG. THUS...INCREASED POPS SOME FOR                                 
THIS...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH                   
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT...ALSO                   
THINK THAT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND                
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FOR                          
AWHILE...LIKELY INHIBITING VIEWING OF TONIGHTS TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE              
THROUGHOUT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST                
OF THE FRONT...TONIGHT AS SATURATED AIR CONTINUES. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE      
NAM/GFS/RUC INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT               
LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS.              
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT.              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
MOST OF THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN HIGH              
PRESSURE. UNDER THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL              
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE              
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS                  
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE PLAIN STATES. SURFACE LOW         
FORMS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN                
BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BY SUNDAY...WILL BE SITUATED OVER                 
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE SOUTHWESTWARD               
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND               
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH H7 TEMPERATURES OF +12C. CAP IS WEAKER                
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH H7                   
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +7 TO +10C.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET CONTINUES TO           
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME                
AREAS MAY SEE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 400 FEET WITH VISIBILITY                       
BEGINNING TO BE REDUCED AS WELL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG              
AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH A                  
SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM                 
NEAR K8D3 TO KHON AT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN                  
SECTIONS OF TWEB ROUTES 256/257...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY              
OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON                   
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...MOSTLY AFFECTING TWEB                  
ROUTE 257 AND THE KATY TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE MORE                     
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST...AS WELL                
AS PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...SD/GIONTA                                                           
AVIATION...ECKSTEIN                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST EMPHASIS ON PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT INTO            
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOW                   
PERSISTENT SHORT WAVE OVER NE/SD BORDER.  SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING                
STEADILY NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 30KTS ALL DAY.  SHORT WAVE FARTHER NORTH            
THAN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING...EVEN THE LATEST              
RUC GUIDANCE.  EXPECT WAVE TO TAKE A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE EAST               
DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDING INTO                
NORTHWEST CONUS.  OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO                  
ENCOUNTER VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MLCAPE OVER              
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN CURRENTLY AT 3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN AS               
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  SOME OF THE CONVECTION             
MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS ENHANCED FORCING FROM S/W PUSHES ACROSS SRN MN             
TWD WI LATER THIS EVE.  HOWEVER CURRENTLY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND             
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT CONDUCIVE TO SVR OVR MOST OF SRN WI...AND WITH             
LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING...WOULD EXPECT SVR THREAT TO                    
DECREASE IN OUR WESTERN CWA.  WL STILL CARRY LKLY WORDING ACROSS THE            
WEST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ALONG AND NORTH              
OF WEAK BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MOIST AIR MASS.  FORCING DROPS OFF ON               
WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO             
SPILL ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER BOTH NAM AND GFS SLOW EXIT OF                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.  SECOND WAVE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT              
305 THETA AND WEAK FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS SO WL CONT MID LEVEL POPS            
MOST LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.  WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LINGERING              
WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS KEEPING A FEW                   
SHOWERS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT DUE TO LACK OF                       
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS CONTINUED DRY WORDING AT THIS POINT.                  
WITH DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY              
FOG TO FORM...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG            
AT BAY.  INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN                   
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE MOST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS             
OCCURRING FROM 12 TO 18Z.                                                       
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE OVER THE CONTROLS                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNNY TO               
P/C SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.  MAY DROP INTO THE 40S SOME             
LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                       
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXTENDED            
GUIDANCE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BROADSCALE RIDGING ACROSS SRN WI               
AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.  RIDGING BEGINS              
TO COLLAPSE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES              
BEGINS TO SAG INTO AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAKENING FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z/03 THAT ESSENTIALLY WASHES            
OUT.  WL REMOVE SML POPS SUN NGT AND LOWER TO POPS TO SCHC IN                   
NORTHEAST AREAS FOR MON.  MEDIUM RANGE PERCENT OF MEASUREABLE                   
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SUN NGT...AND INCREASES              
TO LOW CHANCES ON MONDAY.  EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO                     
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.  DUE TO WEAK                  
FORCING AND MINIMAL COLUMN MOISTURE AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY AS TO                
FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING...WL LEAVE DRY WORDING IN FOR MON NGT               
AND TUE.  WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
GFS 5 DAY 500HPA MEANS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD HEIGHTS REMAINING 25 TO              
75 METERS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW              
TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF INCREASED                
RIDGING IN NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.  HWVR STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHER                  
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST LATER NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FNTL BNDRY WL SAG THRU SRN WI TNGT...THEN SAG INTO NRN              
IL WED MRNG. SCT TSTMS XPCTD ALNG AND POST FNTL INTO WED MRNG...THEN            
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF DAY. LK FOR VFR CONDS TIL ARND 04Z...WITH SCT             
TSTMS DVLPG ACRS NRN SCTNS SRN WI BY ARND 01Z. CONDS BCMG MVFR CIGS             
AND VSBYS AS TSTMS DVLOP...THEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS SFC WNDS TURN NLY             
BHND FNT. THESE CONDS WL CONT THRU 16Z WED THEN GRAD IMPRV TO VFR IN            
SCT SHRA AFT 16Z.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MBK/MK                                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
325 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
06Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE            
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS HOWEVER A RATHER "DIRTY" RIDGE              
WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                      
CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION YESTERDAY. A MORE ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW             
WAS FOUND ACROSS THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE                        
SURFACE...ANALYZING ANY FEATURES OF NOTE IS VERY DIFFICULT WITH SUCH            
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. OVERALL THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ARE                   
DOMINATED BY A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A            
FEW HINTS OF A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS.                
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED WITH                
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFTOVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST               
GEORGIA. A FEW ADDITIONAL LAND BREEZE STORMS ARE ALSO NOW DEVELOPING            
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE            
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO THIS EVENING.            
THE DIFFICULT POP FORECASTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS TO CONTINUE            
WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE              
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS            
TO HOLD BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES CLOSER            
TO THE COAST. HOWEVER WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STILL IN POSITION            
ACROSS THE NORTH...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED NOT TO SEE AT LEAST                  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IGNITE FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO               
OUR GA ZONES (ESPECIALLY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE                    
EVENING). WITH A MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE            
CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO COME UP               
WITH A GRID. THIS WILL INCLUDE PUTTING SOME WEIGHT ON THE LOCAL                 
WORKSTATION WRF MODEL. THIS MODELS HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING                
WELL THIS SUMMER AND SHOWS ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                   
AREA...CONFINED TO THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THERE MAY             
BE SOME VALIDITY TO THIS SOLUTION AS THE ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGING              
ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST              
BY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS BETTER                  
DEFINED RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION THAN              
YESTERDAY AND HOLD BACK COVERAGE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND                    
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WENT WITH A GENERAL CHANCE             
FORECAST 35-45% ACROSS THE AREA. THESE NUMBERS TAKE THE SLIGHTLY                
HIGHER MAV POPS AND ADJUST THEM DOWN BASED ON THE DRIER LOCAL WRF               
SOLUTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S.                   
UPPER RIDGE LOOSES GRIP ON THE FORECAST AREA AND RETREATS SOUTH AND             
WESTWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TAKES CONTROL             
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGIN TO            
DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH             
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE                 
SOUTH AS WELL. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM WEST TO            
EAST ACROSS OUR AL/GA ZONES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF             
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION AND ALSO THE ADDED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG             
THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH SHOULD HELP IGNITE PLENTY OF SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                  
GFS/NAM BOTH HINTING AT SOME BETTER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER TOP OF              
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THESE               
AREA WHICH WILL THEN BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW               
LONG AFTER SUNSET THIS ACTIVITY CAN SURVIVE...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH            
AN ACTIVE (POSSIBLE MCS) MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.            
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO FRIDAY REACHING THE                
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION ON FRIDAY WILL BE               
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON DIURNAL HEATING. WITH               
THE SURFACE TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD HELPING TO DRIVE LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO IGNITE SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TSTORMS.             
AGAIN ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND              
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DOWN. AT THIS TIME               
WILL ASSUME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND GO 40-50 POPS EAST AND                  
50-60 POPS WEST. LOWER POPS IN THE EAST ARE THE RESULT OF SOME                  
POSSIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH              
PUSHING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY INTO EARLY             
SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY RETREATS                
NORTH AND WEST ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING WEST AND NORTH                 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF FROM SUNDAY AND                   
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST GLOBAL MODELS             
SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS LOW                
DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE              
MID ATLANTIC TO CAROLINAS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS HIGH             
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH             
BRIEFLY DIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE               
SOUTHEAST. CLIMO CHANCE 30-40 POPS LOOK GOOD EACH DAY THROUGH THE               
EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISM OR CONVECTIVE                   
SUPPRESSION OF NOTE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY CLOSE              
TO CLIMO WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH              
OF MORE CONTINENTAL ORIGINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE WEEKEND               
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LIKELY TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES                    
COOLER THAN PAST WEEKS WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMMON.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY            
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.             
THIS WILL PLACE BEST RAIN CHANCE AT EASTERN TERMINALS AND WILL HAVE             
TEMPOS AS TLH...VLD...AND ABY. WILL HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR PFN AND              
DHN WITH A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSION ANTICIPATED. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY             
FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING DROPPING VSBY AS LOW AS ABOUT 3SM AT                
TIMES. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED              
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS             
ON THE LOW SIDE OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.                 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY BEFORE                
STALLING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS ARE               
FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THIS                  
TROUGH APPROACHES BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS.             
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT SCATTERED             
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY              
IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO FIRE WX                   
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  93  74  92  73  91 /  40  20  40  30  50                           
PANAMA CITY  92  77  91  76  90 /  30  20  40  30  50                           
DOTHAN       93  73  92  72  91 /  40  30  50  40  60                           
ALBANY       93  74  92  73  91 /  40  30  50  40  50                           
VALDOSTA     93  72  92  71  91 /  40  30  40  30  50                           
CROSS CITY   92  73  92  72  91 /  40  20  40  30  50                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA/CAMP                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
507 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH                   
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON                 
FRIDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                 
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE PATCH OF STRATO-CU              
(BASES BTWN 5-7KFT) AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES             
WEST OF I-95/SOUTH OF I-64. THIS CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE              
ASSOCIATED ALONG A SUBTLE LLVL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE W              
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC SEEM TO PICK ON                 
THIS ACTIVITY (AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT)...AND LINGER THESE CLOUDS               
AND ISOLATED POPS THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...DEEPER MIXING               
WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAG MUCH DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE               
BNDRY LAYER...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS (AT MOST) IN                
THE AFTN WITH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
MULTIPLE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN IN THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING           
THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD                 
DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS STILL LOOKING AT A STATUS-QUO FORECAST                 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SHIFT VERY                     
LITTLE. THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE               
AGAIN TONIGHT (LOCALLY DENSE). THE STAGNANT PATTERN WILL ALSO                   
ALLOW HIGHS TODAY AND THU TO BE SIMILAR TO YDAY (WITHIN A FEW                   
DEGREES)...WHILE LOWS THU MORNING WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO TEMPS                   
EARLY THIS AM.                                                                  
LLVL FRONT PRESSES CLOSER TO THE MID ATLC REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS                
FRONT WEAKENS AS IT DRAWS NEAR...UPON MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM                  
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/NRN STREAM JET AXIS. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT                
THU NIGHT (FRONT IS SLOWER PER GFS/NAM CONSENSUS)...KEEPING 20-30%              
CHANCES MAINLY N OF I-64. SLOW MOVING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL AGAIN                
MAINTAIN LOW POPS (20-30%) FRI AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN HIGHEST                 
OVER THE NRN PTN OF THE FCST AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCSTS. BEST RAIN CHANCES             
FOR SERN VA/NERN NC (AREAS THAT COULD REALLY USE SOME) NOW APPEAR               
TO BE ON SAT AS THE FRONT FINALLY DROPS TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER.                
THEN...A DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE DOME BRINGS DRYER/COOLER AIR TO                 
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND (ESP THE EASTERN SHORES).                  
HIGHER TEMPS/HUMIDITY LVLS RETURN EARLY NEXT WK AS H50 RIDGE                    
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
PATCHY IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS...OTHERWISE                    
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR. WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT            
AND ERLY THU MRNG. IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF              
PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT LATE                 
FRI/SAT MRNG.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO SMALL CRAFT FLAGS IN THE SHORT TERM...NE TO E FLOW REGIME                    
CONTINUES NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST                  
COASTS (WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS OR LESS). SWELL PERIODS 10 SEC+            
SO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TO CONTINUE. NOT A LOT OF INCREASE IN              
THE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT THU NGT/FRI. DO ANTICIPATE            
A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY SAT/SAT NGT AND PERHAPS INTO              
SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD WITH AMPLE MIXING OVER THE                
WARM WATERS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LKB                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BKH                                                                
LONG TERM...BKH/CCW                                                             
AVIATION...LKB                                                                  
MARINE...LKB                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
420 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY              
SHOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH POINT TO GREEN             
BAY TO DES MOINES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (850MB DEWPOINTS                   
BETWEEN 10-15C) COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH IN THE MID-LEVEL             
FLOW HAVE ALLOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE             
NE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED KS/NE/IA.                
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING              
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHILE ONLY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE             
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER.  BROAD TROUGH            
OVER MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND               
HELP DRIVE THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.  SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN                 
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
TODAY...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL               
PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY               
AROUND MIDDAY.  POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN                   
6.5-7.0C/KM AS NOTED ON THE 00Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS AND APPROXIMATED              
ELEVATED CAPE OFF OF NAM SOUNDINGS AROUND 1700 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM            
850MB AT 06Z WED NOT BEING REALIZED WITHOUT DECENT CONVERGENCE FROM             
LLJ.  NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOW ELEVATED CAPES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES DECREASING AS WELL AS 850MB LLJ WEAKENING AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS AGREES WITH CURRENT SATELLITE AND               
RADAR TRENDS...AND BELIEVE THE REMOVAL OF THUNDER WORDING WILL LOOK             
OK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING HOWEVER...MODIFYING A NAM              
SOUNDING ACROSS THE SE CWA AT 15Z YIELDS 1100 J/KG OF ML CAPE...BUT             
ALSO 61 J/KG OF CIN FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/68.  THE WILD CARD IS            
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM INCOMING HEIGHT FALLS...COULD THIS BE ENOUGH            
TO ERODE THE CAP? THEREFORE...BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL            
BUT NOT SMALL ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM FORECAST SO WILL GO WITH                    
ISOLATED WORDING THROUGH 00Z FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC TO           
ALPENA.  AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SEVERE IF DEEP CONVECTION IS               
ACHIEVED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35KTS AND PLENTY OF CAPE IN THE               
HAIL GROWTH ZONE.  SOME CLEARING WILL BE ACHIEVED BEHIND THE FRONT              
MOSTLY IN EASTERN UPPER...BUT IT WILL TAKE TO GET NORTH OF THE 850MB            
MOISTURE PLUME BEFORE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET ADVECTED INTO THE             
AREA.                                                                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WHILE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN DRIER AIR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE              
EVENING BEFORE SKIES GO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA            
OVERNIGHT.  A MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE               
40S IN YOUR COLD SPOTS (PELLSTON) TO THE MID 50S NEAR SAGINAW                   
BAY.                                                                            
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED             
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  PRESENCE OF LOW            
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING (850MB TEMPS 7-9C) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE YOUR GENERIC DIURNAL CU WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO             
MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.  DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY            
EVENING LEAVING THE NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST LOCALES.  THE LONE              
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE A STRONG SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH                 
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR.  SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN DURING THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT ONLY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS               
WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE 50S NEAR THE              
LAKE SHORES.                                                                    
MPC                                                                             
REST OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY QUIET AND SUMMERY WX APPEARS IN STORE             
AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW            
ALOFT WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PUSH            
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN                 
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE FIRMLY IN                  
CONTROL...AND DRY AIR BELOW 750MB SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT                 
MINIMAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...A              
BROADENING 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STORM              
TRACK AND ANY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE WAY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AND              
MOST OF SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE            
INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...DRIVING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED INTO             
WESTERN SUPERIOR. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND/OR LABOR DAY...PER THE ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE                
ABOVE CLIMO...AND WARMING WITH TIME...FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT WED                                            
BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONTAL ZONE HAS BEEN IN A BIT OF A LULL             
IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS                 
LOADING UP TO OUR WEST. SO THE TAFS SITES WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME                
RAIN (AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS) OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH PLN GETTING            
THE WORST OF IT. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO LITTLE OR NO THUNDER             
IS EXPECTED. A DRYING/CLEARING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD WED NIGHT...AS              
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH.                                  
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE FOG AND SHRA CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER             
TODAY...A DRY/QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY PART            
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEAVING TEMPS AS REALLY THE ONLY FCST                  
ISSUE.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE LOW                     
AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. TROF THAT WAS            
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NW...ONE FROM NRN               
ONTARIO TO NE MN AND THE OTHER OVER SRN MANITOBA. THE SECOND                    
SHORTWAVE WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA E OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLIER              
IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RATHER SHARP 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM              
WRN KS TO THE UPPER LAKES PER 00Z RAOBS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS               
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE                    
SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NW MISSOURI TO NE WI AND ERN UPPER MI.               
DRY AIR LAGS THE FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF SFC DWPTS ONLY              
NOW REACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                 
WITH 850MB FRONT CONTINUING TO DRIFT SE THIS MORNING...IT WOULD                 
APPEAR THAT THE THREAT OF -SHRA WILL BE OVER BY 12Z. HOWEVER...HAVE             
SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO WILL               
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNDER ITS                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ALSO...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE             
WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW -SHRA              
SHOWING UP FROM TIME TO TIME ON KMQT RADAR IMAGERY OVER NCNTRL UPPER            
MI RECENTLY AND THERE ARE A FEW RADAR RETURNS JUST AHEAD OF                     
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA OVER             
THE SE FCST AREA UNTIL 14Z. AS FOR FOG...DWPTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO                
DROP OFF BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...BUT IN GENERAL...VSBY HAS STILL                
BEEN IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DWPTS DROP                 
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NRN MN/NRN ONTARIO. 3HR PRES TENDENCIES OVER THE             
LAST SEVERAL HRS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRES RISES OVER THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STEADY                     
ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI THIS MORNING. SO...AT THIS            
POINT...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE FOG WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN FCST.              
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT AFTER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED            
WITH FRONTAL BAND EXIT...EXPECT A GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING                   
SUNSHINE THRU THE DAY AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. SHORTWAVE                
THAT WAS CAUSING A FEW SHRA/TSRA E OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLIER IN THE              
NIGHT WILL PASS N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...AND WON`T BE AN ISSUE IN             
CAUSING ANY PCPN HERE.                                                          
HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS NOW WILL MOVE TO THE UPPER                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING E INTO                 
UPPER MI. SHOULD BE A NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR                 
SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IS NOT UNUSUALLY LOW...IT WILL PROVIDE SOME            
ENHANCEMENT TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. INHERITED FCST                
LOOKED FINE...HAVING MINS A BIT BLO LATEST ROUND OF MOS GUIDANCE.               
SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40F. THERE WILL            
PROBABLY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND RIVERS/STREAMS/MARSHES AND            
INLAND LAKES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FCST. IT IS             
THAT TIME OF YEAR.                                                              
THU WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT LATE AUG DAY. MAY SEE FEW/SCT CU                    
DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER               
THE NW...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MIXING UPWARDS              
OF 800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S              
INLAND. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE                
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD. OF COURSE...GREAT LAKES WATER              
TEMPS ARE NEAR PEAK FOR THE YEAR...SO IT WON`T BE ALL THAT MUCH                 
COOLER NEAR THE SHORE IN A LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SET UP (LOW 70S              
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE/AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE).                
CLOUDS THAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THU AFTN OVER THE NW WILL BE           
THE RESULT OF WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING                    
SHORTWAVE HEADING SE INTO ONTARIO. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE SE              
THRU NRN ONTARIO THU NIGHT. CONSIDERED ADDING SLIGHT CHC POPS TO                
ISLE ROYALE AS WELL AS NRN AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE BEST               
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (300/305K SFCS) PASSES JUST N AND E OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR AND FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER RIGHT EXIT OF UPPER JET...WILL             
NOT INTRODUCE ANY PCPN. WILL NEED TO REEXAMINE POTENTIAL IN LATER               
FCSTS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FORCING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME INCREASE              
IN CLOUDS THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA. MIN            
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN MOST AREAS THU NIGHT THAN WED NIGHT               
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                                                             
NAM IS A CLEAR OUTLIER...BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING OF THE              
SHORTWAVE AND THUS PUSHING ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL S OF FCST             
AREA FRI. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS/UKMET/GLOBAL CANADIAN IDEA OF FRONT                 
STALLING OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OR POSSIBLY NRN UPPER MI. END RESULT            
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WHILE GRADIENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF FRONT             
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER               
THAN THU WITH 850MB TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES.                                   
WARM SW FLOW WILL LOCK IN FOR SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E AND A               
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HAVE               
RAISED MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS INTO THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT            
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH 90F EITHER DAY (ESPECIALLY                
THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH SEE DOWNSLOPING IN SW WINDS). LATEST MEDIUM               
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE                   
SOMETIME SUN NIGHT. SO...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE CHC POPS FOR             
SHRA/TSRA SUN AFTN TO EARLY MON.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...IN PARTICULAR SAW...CONTINUES TO BE            
FOG. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS LAST EVENING ALONG WITH A              
NORTHERLY WIND HELPED TO DROP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO VLIFR.               
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING             
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIFT CEILINGS AND INCREASE                       
VISIBILITIES. HOW QUICK THIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN...THUS A LINGERING             
IFR TEMPO GROUP REMAINS IN THE SAW TAF. ENOUGH DRYING IS OCCURRING              
AT CMX TO KEEP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MVFR TO VFR. SUNSHINE                  
DURING THE MORNING...IN ADDITION TO STABILIZIATION FROM LAKE                    
BREEZES...WILL ALLOW BOTH SITES TO CLIMB TO VFR.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRES            
OVER DAKOTAS BEGINS TO MOVE IN. TEMPORARILY PRES GRADIENT REMAINS               
TIGHT THIS MORNING SO KEPT WINDS TO 20 KT OVER EAST HALF OF LK                  
SUPERIOR. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...LIGHT WIND REGIME TAKES HOLD WITH HIGH            
SETTLING RIGHT OVER LK SUPERIOR REGION INTO FRI. DEEPENING LOW PRES             
OVER JAMES BAY BY LATE WEEKEND RESULTS IN INCREASING SW WINDS SAT               
AFTN INTO SUN. 30 KT WINDS OVR EAST LK SUPERIOR SEEM POSSIBLE IN                
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS LOWER LEVEL WIND MAX PASSES ACROSS REGION.              
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NW.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
320 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BOW ECHO WHICH DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 4 PM               
EDT SWEPT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...                  
RESULTING IN A BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH A LARGE HAIL REPORT            
AND MANY TREES DOWN. SEE ARBLSRMQT FOR A LISTING OF THE SEVERE                  
WEATHER REPORTS. SOUNDS LIKE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MENOMINEE                      
COUNTY WERE HIT PRETTY HARD PER CALL TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF.                     
CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE QUIETED DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH                
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE                 
CWA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AND             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...IN ADDITION TO             
THE PREVIOUS BOW ECHO...ARE LOCATED IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS...850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF A 110-130KT JET NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE CROSSING NORTHERN                 
ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ON               
THE NORTH SIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SAULT STE              
MARIE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DES MOINES IOWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES             
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALSO APPEAR TO BE               
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET. FARTHER TO THE                   
WEST...CONDITIONS ARE DRYING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. DEWPOINTS DROP OFF FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA            
TO THE UPPER 50S IN NE MN AND IN THE UPPER 40S IN NW MN.                        
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE IS WHETHER OR NOT MORE SHOWERS CAN              
DEVELOP. LOCAL 21Z WRF-ARW RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS REDEVELOPING             
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z...APPARENTLY IN AN                
AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 21Z RUC SHOWS THE EXACT SAME               
FRONTOGENESIS FEATURE...BUT NO PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF. GIVEN THE             
FACT THAT THERE IS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA              
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SORT OF            
LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...AND THAT THE UPPER JET OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO            
IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WOULD THINK THE DRIER SCENARIO               
SEEMS MORE LIKELY. AS FAR AS THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES                 
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WOULD               
EXPECT THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER JET PULLING AWAY               
AND NO OTHER GOOD FORCING MECHANISMS.                                           
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES              
UP. PLAN ON RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN                  
ADDITION...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RECENT RAINFALL...HAVE                  
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE             
LOWER DEWPOINT AIRMASS CAN COME IN. RIGHT HERE AT THE OFFICE THE FOG            
IS QUITE DENSE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AS ONE HEADS TO                    
MARQUETTE OR ISHPEMING.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA                
WILL DEEPEN  AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LOCAL WRF                
MODEL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING FROM                 
SAINT CLOUD MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRACK                   
THROUGH EASTERN U.P. THIS EVENING REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY            
MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE             
FRONT AND FEED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. RUC/LOCAL WRF             
INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REACH 2000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE             
AREA AS A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE SWEEPS SETS UP IN THAT AREA.                     
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS EVENING FOR MOST            
OF THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT.                                         
.LONG TERM (12Z WED THROUGH DAY 7)...                                           
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT DECENT RAIN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL                
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH                
PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON THURSDAY              
NIGHT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...THOUGH SIMILARLY TO             
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT MIGHT BE COLDER OVER THE GRB CWA WHERE AIR IS             
DRIEST...0.35 PWAT PER 12Z GFS. CONSIDERED PUTTING IN PATCHY FROST              
DURING THIS TIME AS WE COULD REALLY COLD ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER             
COUNTIES...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS COLDER AIR MAY END UP                 
SOUTH OF US ANYWAY.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE OR NEEDED TO               
GOING FCST. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUN/MON TIME FRAME AS            
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...IN PARTICULAR SAW...CONTINUES TO BE            
FOG. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS LAST EVENING ALONG WITH A              
NORTHERLY WIND HELPED TO DROP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO VLIFR.               
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING             
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LIFT CEILINGS AND INCREASE                       
VISIBILITIES. HOW QUICK THIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN...THUS A LINGERING             
IFR TEMPO GROUP REMAINS IN THE SAW TAF. ENOUGH DRYING IS OCCURRING              
AT CMX TO KEEP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MVFR TO VFR. SUNSHINE                  
DURING THE MORNING...IN ADDITION TO STABILIZIATION FROM LAKE                    
BREEZES...WILL ALLOW BOTH SITES TO CLIMB TO VFR.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST                 
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE A HIGH                
PRES RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN                    
THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT 20 KT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS            
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...DLG (SHORT TERM)/PEARSON (LONG TERM)                               
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY...MORNING VIS IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ATLC SFC LOW NR 31N76W               
DRIFTING SOUTH ATTM WITH SWD MOVING CONVGT BDRY EVIDENT FROM JUST               
OFFSHORE JAX TO NORTH OF BUOY 41010. 88D IMAGERY FROM JAX/MLB SHOWS             
SCT SHRA ALONG THIS BAND...WITH NLDN PICKING UP ONLY A FEW STRIKES              
WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST. WV/RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW PARENT UPPER                 
TROUGH MOVING SWD IN TANDEM WITH THE SFC LOW...AND IMPARTING A GOOD             
DEAL OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR LOW FOR ANY             
SIGNS OF TC DEVELOPMENT (REF: TWOAT/TWDAT).                                     
TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC/UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY/TONIGHT...            
DRAGGING THE MOISTURE BAND ASCD WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA.               
EXPECT SCT WEAK CONVECTION (SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS) TO DEVELOP AND MOVE              
OR PROPAGATE RAPIDLY SWD/INLAND GIVEN INCREASING NRLY H85-H50 STEERING          
WINDS AND EXPECTED INLAND PUSH OF ECSB. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME            
FCST REASONING OF THE MID SHIFT...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NOTHING IN            
THE ZFP OR GRIDDED FIELDS THAT NEEDS CHANGING ATTM.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (PREV)...MARITIME AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA               
TODAY AND HAVE OPTED TO USE TEMPO SHRA RATHER THAN TSRA FOR ALL                 
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE               
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NE TO              
SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE... EXPECT NE WINDS TO BACK NRLY AND INCRS TO 10-15KT BY THIS            
AFTN OVER THE FLG-COF LEG...BEHIND THE SWD MOVING BDRY. SHOULD SEE              
INCRSNG COVRG OF SHRA OVER THE ATLC WITH ISOLD TS AT BEST...MAINLY              
WELL OFFSHORE/OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CRISTALDI                                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
854 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THERE`S NOT A LOT OUT THERE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH              
RESPECT TO TODAY`S FORECAST. UPPER LEVELS FEATURE A BROAD WEAK RIDGE            
OVER THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES             
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AND VORT CENTERS WITHIN THIS RIDGE. ONE OF             
THESES VORT LOBES IS ALIGNED SE TO NW ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER                  
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION THIS                 
MORNING OVER CENTRAL GA. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE              
WILL DO MUCH TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY. SURFACE            
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST               
RIDGING WEAKLY SWWD INTO DIXIE. LITTLE REMAINS OF THE OLD FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY OVER GA/SC, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS                
NOTED IN THIS AREA. THE 1000-700 FLOW TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NE-N             
5-10 KT OVER ERN AREA AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO THE W. THE MODIFIED             
12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH A              
CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG. THE PW IS 1.86 INCHES. THE ONLY CHANGE WE WILL             
MAKE TO THE POP IS TO RAISE IT ABOUT 10 PERCENT OVER OUR NRN ZONES,             
CLOSER TO THE LIMITED UPPER AND SURFACE FORCING. THE INCOMING WRF               
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. BASED ON RECENT MOS PERFORMANCE, WILL RAISE              
MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO TODAY`S FORECAST. A             
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS             
ON THE LOW SIDE OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A               
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY BEFORE                
STALLING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS ARE               
FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THIS                  
TROUGH APPROACHES BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS.             
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT SCATTERED             
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY              
IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF               
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE            
EASTERN HALF. THIS WILL PLACE BEST RAIN CHANCE AT EASTERN TERMINALS             
AND WILL HAVE TEMPOS AS TLH...VLD...AND ABY. WILL HAVE PROB30 GROUPS            
FOR PFN AND DHN WITH A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSION ANTICIPATED. MAY SEE             
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING DROPPING VSBY AS LOW AS                 
ABOUT 3SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR                     
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE ONLY FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE THE LOW DISPERSION                
INDICES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
325 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO THIS EVENING.            
THE DIFFICULT POP FORECASTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS TO CONTINUE            
WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE              
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS            
TO HOLD BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES CLOSER            
TO THE COAST. HOWEVER WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STILL IN POSITION            
ACROSS THE NORTH...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED NOT TO SEE AT LEAST                  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IGNITE FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO               
OUR GA ZONES (ESPECIALLY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE                    
EVENING). WITH A MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE            
CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO COME UP               
WITH A GRID. THIS WILL INCLUDE PUTTING SOME WEIGHT ON THE LOCAL                 
WORKSTATION WRF MODEL. THIS MODELS HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING                
WELL THIS SUMMER AND SHOWS ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE                   
AREA...CONFINED TO THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THERE MAY             
BE SOME VALIDITY TO THIS SOLUTION AS THE ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGING              
ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST              
BY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS BETTER                  
DEFINED RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION THAN              
YESTERDAY AND HOLD BACK COVERAGE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND                    
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WENT WITH A GENERAL CHANCE             
FORECAST 35-45% ACROSS THE AREA. THESE NUMBERS TAKE THE SLIGHTLY                
HIGHER MAV POPS AND ADJUST THEM DOWN BASED ON THE DRIER LOCAL WRF               
SOLUTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S.                   
UPPER RIDGE LOOSES GRIP ON THE FORECAST AREA AND RETREATS SOUTH AND             
WESTWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TAKES CONTROL             
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGIN TO            
DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH             
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE                 
SOUTH AS WELL. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM WEST TO            
EAST ACROSS OUR AL/GA ZONES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF             
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION AND ALSO THE ADDED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG             
THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH SHOULD HELP IGNITE PLENTY OF SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                  
GFS/NAM BOTH HINTING AT SOME BETTER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER TOP OF              
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THESE               
AREA WHICH WILL THEN BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW               
LONG AFTER SUNSET THIS ACTIVITY CAN SURVIVE...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH            
AN ACTIVE (POSSIBLE MCS) MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.            
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO FRIDAY REACHING THE                
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION ON FRIDAY WILL BE               
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON DIURNAL HEATING. WITH               
THE SURFACE TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD HELPING TO DRIVE LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO IGNITE SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TSTORMS.             
AGAIN ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND              
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DOWN. AT THIS TIME               
WILL ASSUME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND GO 40-50 POPS EAST AND                  
50-60 POPS WEST. LOWER POPS IN THE EAST ARE THE RESULT OF SOME                  
POSSIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH              
PUSHING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA.                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY INTO EARLY             
SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY RETREATS                
NORTH AND WEST ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING WEST AND NORTH                 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF FROM SUNDAY AND                   
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST GLOBAL MODELS             
SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS LOW                
DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE              
MID ATLANTIC TO CAROLINAS TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS HIGH             
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH             
BRIEFLY DIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE               
SOUTHEAST. CLIMO CHANCE 30-40 POPS LOOK GOOD EACH DAY THROUGH THE               
EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISM OR CONVECTIVE                   
SUPPRESSION OF NOTE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY CLOSE              
TO CLIMO WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY. WITH A SURFACE HIGH              
OF MORE CONTINENTAL ORIGINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE WEEKEND               
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LIKELY TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES                    
COOLER THAN PAST WEEKS WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMMON.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  93  74  92  73  91 /  40  20  40  30  50                           
PANAMA CITY  92  77  91  76  90 /  30  20  40  30  50                           
DOTHAN       93  73  92  72  91 /  40  30  50  40  60                           
ALBANY       93  74  92  73  91 /  40  30  50  40  50                           
VALDOSTA     93  72  92  71  91 /  40  30  40  30  50                           
CROSS CITY   92  73  92  72  91 /  40  20  40  30  50                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GIBBS                                                                
CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1048 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                              
FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR UPDATES.                
WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BY ABOUT A DEGREE WITH ONE              
MORE DAY THIS MONTH IN THE 90S SE OF THE IL RIVER...WITH UPPPER                 
80S NW OF THE IL RIVER.                                                         
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER NW IL NW OF THE IL                
RIVER JUST PAST OHARE/CHICAGO...GALESBURG AND MACOMB. AN OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARY WAS OVER CENTRAL IL NEAR I-72. CONVECTION SO FAR THIS                  
MORNING HAS BEEN JUST SE OF IL WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS AND NW OF IL              
IN SE IA AND NORTHERN MO ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.            
AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND                        
LAWRENCEVILLE AND TAYLORVILLE AT 90F.                                           
RUC AND NAM/WRF TAKE COLD FRONT SE FROM THE IL RIVER INTO SE IL BY              
SUNSET. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYMAMICS PASS NE OF IL BUT DO HAVE                
AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY THIS                
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON                
AND ALSO OVER SE IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT                    
INTERACTS WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS                
AFTERNOON BUT STILL ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO HEAT TEMPS INTO THE 90S SE               
OF THE IL RIVER WITH LAWRENCEVILLE APPROACHING 100F. A BIT COOLER               
OVER NW AREAS WHERE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH QUICKER WITH HIGHS 85 TO                
90 FROM THE IL RIVER NW. RATHER HUMID TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE               
MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.                                                          
THIS WILL BE THE 25TH DAY THIS MONTH LAWRENCEVILLE HAD HIGHS OF                 
90F OR HOTTER AND 5 DAYS WITH HIGHS 100 TO 102F. THEY WILL BE CLOSE             
TO 100F THIS AFTERNOON. DECATUR WILL HAVE THE 22ND DAY AT OR ABOVE              
90F...SPRINGFIELD WILL BE THE 21ST DAY IN THE 90S...MATTOON THE 20TH            
DAY IN THE 90S...PEORIA THE 17TH DAY IN THE 90S AND CAMPAIGN THE                
11TH DAY IN THE 90S.                                                            
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 642 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                               
WILL KEEP THE SAME TREND AS PREVIOUS TAF RUN. FRONT STILL EXPECTED              
TO MOVE INTO REGION DURING DAY. KEPT VCNTY TSTMS IN FORECAST AS                 
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION SCATTERED. PCPN EXPECTED               
IN AFTERNOON...AS MORNING FEW SHOWERS HAVE DISIPATED.                           
GOETSCH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                              
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING FRONT JUST WEST OF THE QUAD                    
CITIES THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER                  
CENTRAL IOWA QUICKLY DIMINISHED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE THE LOW                   
LEVEL JET WEAKENED AND VEERED.                                                  
HOWEVER... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DVN SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES SPREADING                       
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE WAVE TRAIN               
ITSELF EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO KANSAS CITY AND BEYOND. A                   
SMALL CLUSTER OF WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS HAS FORMED JUST OUT AHEAD                
OF THIS FEATURE OVER FULTON COUNTY.                                             
STILL THINK THAT POPS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD ARE NOT WARRANTED FOR              
AREAS EAST OF I-55... DESPITE THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW/G-WAVE TRAIN.               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE DRIES OUT VERY QUICKLY EAST OF THE                   
ILLINOIS RIVER... AND 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A VERY DRY MID AND                
UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AS WELL... ALTHOUGH THIS HAS                    
LIKELY BEEN MODIFIED SOMEWHAT WEST OF I-55 BY NOW.                              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE                   
NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY IN THE              
SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT... GENERALLY ALONG AND                
NORTH/WEST OF I-72.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING... WITH THE BULK OF THE                  
DYNAMICS WELL TO OUR NORTH... ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RRQ              
OF A 80-100KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70... SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                        
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS               
WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... WITH              
A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                   
SLOWLY ATTEMPTING TO OOZE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AS THE              
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
BECOME MORE WESTERLY... THUS HALTING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE... KEEPING IT CONTAINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.            
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TROUGH BY THIS EVENING... WITH JUST A SLIGHT              
CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON                    
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST... ESPECIALLY IF ANY MID-LEVEL                     
MOISTURE MANAGES TO HANG ABOUT.                                                 
OTHERWISE... COOLER AND DRIER WX IS ON THE WAY FOR THE REST OF THE              
WORK WEEK... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF                
THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS.                                                    
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER AN                
INITIAL COOL DOWN. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL INDICATES AN                     
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE                     
MIDWEST... ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES... BUT ALSO              
KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE               
COMPLICATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE                 
OVER THE PLAINS... AND AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE               
GULF.STILL NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE                     
HORIZON HOWEVER.                                                                
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1041 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MID MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM                 
ABOUT ALPENA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR FRANKFORT THEN INTO CENTRAL                      
WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT...WHICH HAD BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE             
NIGHT UP ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION...BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE             
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH APPROACH OF PRIMARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. WHAT HAD BEEN A               
RELATIVELY DRY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND NOW GIVING WAY TO A                 
STEADILY EASTWARD ADVANCING AREA OF SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM JUST               
EAST OF THE SOO TO BELLAIRE DOWN THROUGH CADILLAC. PRIMARY DRIVEN               
MECHANISM FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TWO FOLD...WITH LOW LEVEL MASS              
CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF WEAKISH 30 TO 35 KNOT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET                
CUTTING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT FROM             
VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER. FORECAST              
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON ADDITIONAL                      
SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES AS FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE             
AREA.                                                                           
AS MENTIONED...WITH APPROACH OF WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE...EXPECT FRONT              
TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                  
DAY...CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. UNTIL            
THAT TIME...EXPECT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS              
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE CUT ACROSS THE AREA...AS             
WELL AS WITH INCREASING FORCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL              
ZONE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND               
SOUTHERN ZONES...PER EARLY MORNING LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWING SOME                  
STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH IMPINGING LINE             
OF SHOWERS. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT                  
RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE                 
EXTENDING FROM HARRISVILLE TO HOUGHTON LAKE...WHERE SOME MORNING                
SUNSHINE HAS INCREASED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (LATEST LAPS DATA              
SHOWS UPWARDS OF 400 J/KG SURFACED BASED CAPE IN THIS AREA ALREADY).            
LATEST DAY 1 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALSO TARGETED THIS AREA FOR             
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODIFYING               
LATEST NAM-WRF POINT SOUNDINGS...USING A SURFACE AND DEWPOINT                   
TEMPERATURE OF 80 AND 68 RESPECTIVELY...DOES YIELD ON THE ORDER OF              
1000-1300 J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE IN THIS AREA...WITH APPROXIMATELY             
20 TO 30 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WITH THIS INHIBITION...WILL             
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THUNDER CHANCES AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE                
MENTION AT THIS TIME. IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN BE                           
REALIZED....SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK              
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS BEST                
TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.                 
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT                 
CHANGES WARRANTED.                                                              
UPDATED GRIDS/NEARSHORES/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 720 AM                                                    
BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONTAL ZONE HAS FIZZLED QUITE A BIT                 
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING             
ESPECIALLY AT PLN AND TVC. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO LITTLE OR              
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. BKN IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED                    
UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT             
THESE CIGS WILL IMPACT PLN THIS MORNING.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED            
TO COME TO AN END BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A DRYING/CLEARING TREND                 
TAKING HOLD TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE                
SOUTH.                                                                          
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 420 AM                                                  
03Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE                   
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH POINT TO GREEN BAY TO               
DES MOINES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (850MB DEWPOINTS BETWEEN                  
10-15C) COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW                
HAVE ALLOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE NE               
ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED KS/NE/IA.  CLOUD            
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING EARLY              
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHILE ONLY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO                
MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER.  BROAD TROUGH               
OVER MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND               
HELP DRIVE THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.  SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN                 
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
TODAY...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL               
PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY               
AROUND MIDDAY.  POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN                   
6.5-7.0C/KM AS NOTED ON THE 00Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS AND APPROXIMATED              
ELEVATED CAPE OFF OF NAM SOUNDINGS AROUND 1700 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM            
850MB AT 06Z WED NOT BEING REALIZED WITHOUT DECENT CONVERGENCE FROM             
LLJ.  NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOW ELEVATED CAPES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES DECREASING AS WELL AS 850MB LLJ WEAKENING AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS AGREES WITH CURRENT SATELLITE AND               
RADAR TRENDS...AND BELIEVE THE REMOVAL OF THUNDER WORDING WILL LOOK             
OK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING HOWEVER...MODIFYING A NAM              
SOUNDING ACROSS THE SE CWA AT 15Z YIELDS 1100 J/KG OF ML CAPE...BUT             
ALSO 61 J/KG OF CIN FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/68.  THE WILD CARD IS            
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM INCOMING HEIGHT FALLS...COULD THIS BE ENOUGH            
TO ERODE THE CAP? THEREFORE...BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL            
BUT NOT SMALL ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM FORECAST SO WILL GO WITH                    
ISOLATED WORDING THROUGH 00Z FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC              
TO ALPENA.  AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SEVERE IF DEEP CONVECTION IS            
ACHIEVED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35KTS AND PLENTY OF CAPE IN THE               
HAIL GROWTH ZONE.  SOME CLEARING WILL BE ACHIEVED BEHIND THE FRONT              
MOSTLY IN EASTERN UPPER...BUT IT WILL TAKE TO GET NORTH OF THE 850MB            
MOISTURE PLUME BEFORE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET ADVECTED INTO THE             
AREA.                                                                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WHILE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN DRIER AIR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE              
EVENING BEFORE SKIES GO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA            
OVERNIGHT.  A MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE               
40S IN YOUR COLD SPOTS (PELLSTON) TO THE MID 50S NEAR SAGINAW                   
BAY.                                                                            
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED             
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  PRESENCE OF LOW            
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING (850MB TEMPS 7-9C) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE YOUR GENERIC DIURNAL CU WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO             
MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.  DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY            
EVENING LEAVING THE NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST LOCALES.  THE LONE              
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE A STRONG SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH                 
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR.  SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN DURING THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT ONLY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS               
WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE 50S NEAR THE              
LAKE SHORES.                                                                    
MPC                                                                             
REST OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY QUIET AND SUMMERY WX APPEARS IN STORE             
AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW            
ALOFT WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PUSH            
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN                 
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE FIRMLY IN                  
CONTROL...AND DRY AIR BELOW 750MB SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT                 
MINIMAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...A              
BROADENING 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STORM              
TRACK AND ANY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE WAY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AND              
MOST OF SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE            
INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...DRIVING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED INTO             
WESTERN SUPERIOR. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND/OR LABOR DAY...PER THE ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE                
ABOVE CLIMO...AND WARMING WITH TIME...FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1039 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS              
CLEARING OUT.                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE LOW                     
AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A WEAK              
TROUGH IS OVER ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF            
SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.               
THE MICHIGAN SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHERN               
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN            
GEORGIAN BAY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH ALSO IS PRODUCING            
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS. DRY AIR LAGS THE FRONT             
WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR. LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE STRONGEST UVV ASSOCIATED WITH                
THIS STILL SEEMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE.                                   
THE JET MAX WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC TODAY WHILE THE MID              
LEVEL TROUGH RACES INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 40F OVER                  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE WESTERN U.P. TODAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE                
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUPPORTS THIS AS            
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR YET. A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND WILL            
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKE INTO THE FORECAST AREA                
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EAST FOR A LITTLE             
WHILE LONGER. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE                        
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO HOLD               
THE TEMPERATURES DOWN ALSO. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IF THE                  
CLOUDS BURN OFF SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEPART AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED            
IN IMPROVING VSBY AT BOTH SITES. YET...CIGS ARE STUBBORN TO LIFT                
ABOVE 1000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. ONCE DRIER AIR SHIFTS UPWIND                
INTO CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WOULD EXPECT NORTH WINDS FLOWING INTO KSAW             
TO YIELD AN IMPROVEMENT TREND. IN THE MEANTIME...UPSLOPING NORTH                
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HANG ON INTO THE AFTN AT KSAW. SO...                 
DELAYED RAISING CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN. LOW CONVECTIVE             
TEMPS OFF SOUNDINGS MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SIMILAR BASED CU            
REST OF AFTN. KCMX HAD SOME IFR CIFS OFF AND ON THROUGH NIGHT DUE TO            
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT PROXIMITY              
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN MN/ONTARIO SHOULD NOW KEEP VFR CIGS THERE               
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRES            
OVER DAKOTAS BEGINS TO MOVE IN. TEMPORARILY PRES GRADIENT REMAINS               
TIGHT THIS MORNING SO KEPT WINDS TO 20 KT OVER EAST HALF OF LK                  
SUPERIOR. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...LIGHT WIND REGIME TAKES HOLD WITH HIGH            
SETTLING RIGHT OVER LK SUPERIOR REGION INTO FRI. DEEPENING LOW PRES             
OVER JAMES BAY BY LATE WEEKEND RESULTS IN INCREASING SW WINDS SAT               
AFTN INTO SUN. 30 KT WINDS OVR EAST LK SUPERIOR SEEM POSSIBLE IN                
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS LOWER LEVEL WIND MAX PASSES ACROSS REGION.              
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NW.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...JLA                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
743 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION (415 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE FOG AND SHRA CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER             
TODAY...A DRY/QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY PART            
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEAVING TEMPS AS REALLY THE ONLY FCST                  
ISSUE.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE LOW                     
AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. TROF THAT WAS            
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NW...ONE FROM NRN               
ONTARIO TO NE MN AND THE OTHER OVER SRN MANITOBA. THE SECOND                    
SHORTWAVE WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA E OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLIER              
IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RATHER SHARP 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM              
WRN KS TO THE UPPER LAKES PER 00Z RAOBS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS               
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE                    
SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NW MISSOURI TO NE WI AND ERN UPPER MI.               
DRY AIR LAGS THE FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF SFC DWPTS ONLY              
NOW REACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                 
WITH 850MB FRONT CONTINUING TO DRIFT SE THIS MORNING...IT WOULD                 
APPEAR THAT THE THREAT OF -SHRA WILL BE OVER BY 12Z. HOWEVER...HAVE             
SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO WILL               
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNDER ITS                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ALSO...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE             
WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW -SHRA              
SHOWING UP FROM TIME TO TIME ON KMQT RADAR IMAGERY OVER NCNTRL UPPER            
MI RECENTLY AND THERE ARE A FEW RADAR RETURNS JUST AHEAD OF                     
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA OVER             
THE SE FCST AREA UNTIL 14Z. AS FOR FOG...DWPTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO                
DROP OFF BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...BUT IN GENERAL...VSBY HAS STILL                
BEEN IMPROVING IN MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DWPTS DROP                 
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NRN MN/NRN ONTARIO. 3HR PRES TENDENCIES OVER THE             
LAST SEVERAL HRS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF WEAK PRES RISES OVER THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STEADY                     
ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI THIS MORNING. SO...AT THIS            
POINT...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE FOG WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN FCST.              
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT AFTER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED            
WITH FRONTAL BAND EXIT...EXPECT A GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING                   
SUNSHINE THRU THE DAY AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. SHORTWAVE                
THAT WAS CAUSING A FEW SHRA/TSRA E OF LAKE WINNIPEG EARLIER IN THE              
NIGHT WILL PASS N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...AND WON`T BE AN ISSUE IN             
CAUSING ANY PCPN HERE.                                                          
HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS NOW WILL MOVE TO THE UPPER                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING E INTO                 
UPPER MI. SHOULD BE A NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR                 
SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IS NOT UNUSUALLY LOW...IT WILL PROVIDE SOME            
ENHANCEMENT TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. INHERITED FCST                
LOOKED FINE...HAVING MINS A BIT BLO LATEST ROUND OF MOS GUIDANCE.               
SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40F. THERE WILL            
PROBABLY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND RIVERS/STREAMS/MARSHES AND            
INLAND LAKES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FCST. IT IS             
THAT TIME OF YEAR.                                                              
THU WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT LATE AUG DAY. MAY SEE FEW/SCT CU                    
DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER               
THE NW...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MIXING UPWARDS              
OF 800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S              
INLAND. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE                
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BOARD. OF COURSE...GREAT LAKES WATER              
TEMPS ARE NEAR PEAK FOR THE YEAR...SO IT WON`T BE ALL THAT MUCH                 
COOLER NEAR THE SHORE IN A LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SET UP (LOW 70S              
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE/AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE).                
CLOUDS THAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THU AFTN OVER THE NW WILL BE           
THE RESULT OF WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING                    
SHORTWAVE HEADING SE INTO ONTARIO. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE SE              
THRU NRN ONTARIO THU NIGHT. CONSIDERED ADDING SLIGHT CHC POPS TO                
ISLE ROYALE AS WELL AS NRN AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE BEST               
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (300/305K SFCS) PASSES JUST N AND E OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR AND FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER RIGHT EXIT OF UPPER JET...WILL             
NOT INTRODUCE ANY PCPN. WILL NEED TO REEXAMINE POTENTIAL IN LATER               
FCSTS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FORCING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME INCREASE              
IN CLOUDS THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA. MIN            
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN MOST AREAS THU NIGHT THAN WED NIGHT               
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                                                             
NAM IS A CLEAR OUTLIER...BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING OF THE              
SHORTWAVE AND THUS PUSHING ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL S OF FCST             
AREA FRI. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS/UKMET/GLOBAL CANADIAN IDEA OF FRONT                 
STALLING OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OR POSSIBLY NRN UPPER MI. END RESULT            
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WHILE GRADIENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF FRONT             
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER               
THAN THU WITH 850MB TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES.                                   
WARM SW FLOW WILL LOCK IN FOR SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E AND A               
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HAVE               
RAISED MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS INTO THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT            
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH 90F EITHER DAY (ESPECIALLY                
THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH SEE DOWNSLOPING IN SW WINDS). LATEST MEDIUM               
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE                   
SOMETIME SUN NIGHT. SO...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE CHC POPS FOR             
SHRA/TSRA SUN AFTN TO EARLY MON.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEPART AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED            
IN IMPROVING VSBY AT BOTH SITES. YET...CIGS ARE STUBBORN TO LIFT                
ABOVE 1000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. ONCE DRIER AIR SHIFTS UPWIND                
INTO CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR WOULD EXPECT NORTH WINDS FLOWING INTO KSAW             
TO YIELD AN IMPROVEMENT TREND. IN THE MEANTIME...UPSLOPING NORTH                
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HANG ON INTO THE AFTN AT KSAW. SO...                 
DELAYED RAISING CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN. LOW CONVECTIVE             
TEMPS OFF SOUNDINGS MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SIMILAR BASED CU            
REST OF AFTN. KCMX HAD SOME IFR CIFS OFF AND ON THROUGH NIGHT DUE TO            
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT PROXIMITY              
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN MN/ONTARIO SHOULD NOW KEEP VFR CIGS THERE               
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRES            
OVER DAKOTAS BEGINS TO MOVE IN. TEMPORARILY PRES GRADIENT REMAINS               
TIGHT THIS MORNING SO KEPT WINDS TO 20 KT OVER EAST HALF OF LK                  
SUPERIOR. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...LIGHT WIND REGIME TAKES HOLD WITH HIGH            
SETTLING RIGHT OVER LK SUPERIOR REGION INTO FRI. DEEPENING LOW PRES             
OVER JAMES BAY BY LATE WEEKEND RESULTS IN INCREASING SW WINDS SAT               
AFTN INTO SUN. 30 KT WINDS OVR EAST LK SUPERIOR SEEM POSSIBLE IN                
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS LOWER LEVEL WIND MAX PASSES ACROSS REGION.              
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NW.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...JLA                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
720 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONTAL ZONE HAS FIZZLED                 
QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS              
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY AT PLN AND TVC. NOT A LOT OF                            
INSTABILITY...SO LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. BKN IFR TO LIFR              
CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ITS NOT OUT             
OF THE QUESTION THAT THESE CIGS WILL IMPACT PLN THIS MORNING.                   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A            
DRYING/CLEARING TREND TAKING HOLD TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT                   
FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH.                                                 
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT WED AUG 29                                   
03Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE                   
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH POINT TO GREEN BAY TO               
DES MOINES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (850MB DEWPOINTS BETWEEN                  
10-15C) COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW                
HAVE ALLOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE NE               
ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED KS/NE/IA.  CLOUD            
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING EARLY              
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHILE ONLY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO                
MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER.  BROAD TROUGH               
OVER MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND               
HELP DRIVE THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.  SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN                 
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
TODAY...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL               
PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY               
AROUND MIDDAY.  POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN                   
6.5-7.0C/KM AS NOTED ON THE 00Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS AND APPROXIMATED              
ELEVATED CAPE OFF OF NAM SOUNDINGS AROUND 1700 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM            
850MB AT 06Z WED NOT BEING REALIZED WITHOUT DECENT CONVERGENCE FROM             
LLJ.  NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOW ELEVATED CAPES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES DECREASING AS WELL AS 850MB LLJ WEAKENING AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS AGREES WITH CURRENT SATELLITE AND               
RADAR TRENDS...AND BELIEVE THE REMOVAL OF THUNDER WORDING WILL LOOK             
OK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING HOWEVER...MODIFYING A NAM              
SOUNDING ACROSS THE SE CWA AT 15Z YIELDS 1100 J/KG OF ML CAPE...BUT             
ALSO 61 J/KG OF CIN FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/68.  THE WILD CARD IS            
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM INCOMING HEIGHT FALLS...COULD THIS BE ENOUGH            
TO ERODE THE CAP? THEREFORE...BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL            
BUT NOT SMALL ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM FORECAST SO WILL GO WITH                    
ISOLATED WORDING THROUGH 00Z FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC TO           
ALPENA.  AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SEVERE IF DEEP CONVECTION IS               
ACHIEVED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35KTS AND PLENTY OF CAPE IN THE               
HAIL GROWTH ZONE.  SOME CLEARING WILL BE ACHIEVED BEHIND THE FRONT              
MOSTLY IN EASTERN UPPER...BUT IT WILL TAKE TO GET NORTH OF THE 850MB            
MOISTURE PLUME BEFORE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET ADVECTED INTO THE             
AREA.                                                                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WHILE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN DRIER AIR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE              
EVENING BEFORE SKIES GO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA            
OVERNIGHT.  A MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE               
40S IN YOUR COLD SPOTS (PELLSTON) TO THE MID 50S NEAR SAGINAW                   
BAY.                                                                            
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED             
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  PRESENCE OF LOW            
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING (850MB TEMPS 7-9C) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE YOUR GENERIC DIURNAL CU WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO             
MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.  DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY            
EVENING LEAVING THE NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST LOCALES.  THE LONE              
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE A STRONG SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH                 
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR.  SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN DURING THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT ONLY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS               
WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE 50S NEAR THE              
LAKE SHORES.                                                                    
MPC                                                                             
REST OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY QUIET AND SUMMERY WX APPEARS IN STORE             
AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW            
ALOFT WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PUSH            
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN                 
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE FIRMLY IN                  
CONTROL...AND DRY AIR BELOW 750MB SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT                 
MINIMAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...A              
BROADENING 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STORM              
TRACK AND ANY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE WAY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AND              
MOST OF SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE            
INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...DRIVING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED INTO             
WESTERN SUPERIOR. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND/OR LABOR DAY...PER THE ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE                
ABOVE CLIMO...AND WARMING WITH TIME...FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1101 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL                  
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH                
LATE THURSDAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN AIXS OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE NE             
PART OF THE FA...AND VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR OVER THE SW PART. IN              
THE MOIST AIR...A WEAK SHEAR AIXS EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TN SSE ACROSS             
WESTERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS PIVOTED FROM A W TO E ORIENTATION TO               
MORE OF A N TO S ORIENTATION OVER THE PAST DAY...BUT IT IS STILL                
JUST A HAIR OUTSIDE THE FA. SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT              
OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE            
FA. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER THIS AFTN AS THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ALL                
DEVELOP GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SRN NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT            
AND THE NRN UPSTATE. I/VE UPPED UPS TO LOW CHANCE THROUGHOUT THIS               
AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS I THINK SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH THE             
LLVL FORCING...THOUGH ONSET TIME MAY BE FAIRLY LATE...SAY AFTER 21              
UTC. I ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN                    
ZONES...MORE IN LINE WITH OUR LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
CWFA STILL EXPECTED TO COME UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BACKSIDE OF              
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW A WEAK                      
COLD FRONT TO SAG SE ACRS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. DEPICTION OF            
WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING THRU TROUGH QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AND               
TIME. HAVE BASED POPS ROUGHLY ON THE SREF MEASURABLE CHANCES WHICH              
RESULTED IN A BUMP UP TO MORE SOLID CHANCE THURSDAY AND AN ADDITION             
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EASTERN ZONES. WITH INSTABILITY SLOW             
TO WANE AND BOTH THE 29/00 UTC OP GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICTING                   
INCREASED LAYER RH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LOW            
AND/OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON                     
THURSDAY. ENOUGH SHORT RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO             
FRONTAL POSITIONING ON FRIDAY...FCST TO BE SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HAVE              
MY DOUBTS THOUGH THAT THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND EASTERLY FLOW                
THAT WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER INITIALLY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ANY              
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL FCST              
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. DESPITE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE                   
DEVELOPING OFF TO OUR SOUTH...TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE REGIONWIDE             
WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY              
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA            
WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND AROUND CIRCULATION OF SFC                     
RIDGING...THE PARENT HIGH OF WHICH WILL BE IN NEW ENGLAND.                      
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE WHICH                
WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW             
CLIMO FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE JULY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD                  
BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON MONDAY TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF MOST            
OF THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING PCPN CHANCES WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE               
SLOWLY BUILDING BACK OVER THE SE BY TUE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WENT WITH TEMPO MVFR VIS DEVELOPING IN FOG...IFR AT KAVL...LIFTING              
BY 14-15Z. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION               
OVER MTNS THIS AFTN...ISOLD ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR LIGHT W TO NW WINDS             
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT 20Z.                                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK...THRU MON. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY KAVL THU AND              
FRI...AND AT ALL SITES THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS              
THE REGION. EXPECT TYPICAL MVFR MORNING FOG AND HAZE...WITH IFR PSBL            
AT KAVL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-             
     057-069>072-082.                                                           
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY                                                              
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...CSH/LG                                                              
AVIATION...RB                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
317 PM MDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS                
ALONG WITH EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE             
EASTERN PLAINS.                                                                 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION              
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MID               
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE               
FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH                 
PLAINS...KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.                                                      
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS            
THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING            
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.             
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING            
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH MT VALLEYS                 
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY             
MORNING HOURS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN            
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...        
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS THROUGH THE            
EVENING...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL            
HAIL ALONG THE EASTERN MTS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEARS DUE TO THE              
UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE I-25                    
CORRIDOR AND FAR SE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF                 
OUTFLOWS AIDING IN LIFT TO WORK WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH              
AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT AT ALL EAST OF THE CORRIDOR.                  
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE IN EASTERLY FLOW                 
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC-H7 LAYER SATURATING OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT               
IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MORNING.            
SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TOMORROW ACROSS THE PLAINS...KEEPING                
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN AND WENT ON           
THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. -MW                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRI THROUGH WED)                                                               
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT WEATHER WILL BE THE DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS              
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS AND GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE                     
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                
FRI THROUGH WED...VERY GOOD ENSEMBLE DATA...INCLUDING ECMWF AND                 
DGEX...RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH                     
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AZ THIS WEEKEND              
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIR MASS DRIES OUT A LITTLE...BUT THERE WILL              
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR MOUNTAIN/HIGH VALLEY                     
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE                       
PRIMARILY NW-NLY...WHICH COULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHRA/TSRA TO               
DRIFT OUT THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS. WITH MIDLEVEL                  
TEMPERATURES INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO AT AND ABOVE              
AVERAGE READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THIS MAY...ALSO...KEEP                    
THINGS CAPPED FOR SURFACE-BASED SHRA/TSRA FROM FORMING OVER THE                 
SERN CO PLAINS...BUT COULDN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                 
INDUCING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY LOW POPS...LESS                  
THAN 5 PERCENT...ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS. 12Z/29 MEX MOS                      
GUIDANCE STILL TAKES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 9OS THIS              
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY              
BELOW THESE VALUES.                                                             
THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AS ALL EYES TURN                
TO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOVING NEAR              
BAJA OF CA AND DRIFTING INTO THE DESERT SW. THIS IS A LONG WAY                  
OFF...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IN THE COMING WEEK. METZE                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS              
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO RE DEVELOP                  
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY LIFR                
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE TAF SITES AS MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SE             
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS            
THE EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VFR OR PATCHY MVFR CIGS            
EXPECTED AFT 18Z.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1140 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                              
UPDATED DISCUSSION FROM SPC...PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AHEAD OF SLOW                 
MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NW LOWER MI INTO FAR SE IA...IS CHARACTERIZED            
BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AMPLE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF              
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABUNDANT HEATING AND MODERATE MLCAPE THIS               
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE.                      
HOWEVER...CAPE WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.              
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT AND LIFT ALONG SLOW MOVING MCV/VORT MAX              
OVER EASTERN IA SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE AS CAP                   
WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN IL INTO LOWER MI DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.                
INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE                    
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MI AND FAR NE PARTS OF IL/IN FROM MID                
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH OVERALL            
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL            
SUFFICE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND            
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE                
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES. DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES                
CENTRAL IL IN A 5 TO 10% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM LINCOLN NE.            
SO VERY ISOLATED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.                               
PREVIOUS LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD                
SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR UPDATES. WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS                
AFTERNOON BY ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH ONE MORE DAY THIS MONTH IN              
THE 90S SE OF THE IL RIVER...WITH UPPPER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER.                
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER NW IL NW OF THE IL                
RIVER JUST PAST OHARE/CHICAGO...GALESBURG AND MACOMB. AN OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARY WAS OVER CENTRAL IL NEAR I-72. CONVECTION SO FAR THIS                  
MORNING HAS BEEN JUST SE OF IL WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS AND NW OF IL              
IN SE IA AND NORTHERN MO ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.            
AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND                        
LAWRENCEVILLE AND TAYLORVILLE AT 90F.                                           
RUC AND NAM/WRF TAKE COLD FRONT SE FROM THE IL RIVER INTO SE IL BY              
SUNSET. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYMAMICS PASS NE OF IL BUT DO HAVE                
AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY THIS                
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON                
AND ALSO OVER SE IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONT                    
INTERACTS WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS                
AFTERNOON BUT STILL ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO HEAT TEMPS INTO THE 90S SE               
OF THE IL RIVER WITH LAWRENCEVILLE APPROACHING 100F. A BIT COOLER               
OVER NW AREAS WHERE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH QUICKER WITH HIGHS 85 TO                
90 FROM THE IL RIVER NW. RATHER HUMID TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE               
MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.                                                          
THIS WILL BE THE 25TH DAY THIS MONTH LAWRENCEVILLE HAD HIGHS OF                 
90F OR HOTTER AND 5 DAYS WITH HIGHS 100 TO 102F. THEY WILL BE CLOSE             
TO 100F THIS AFTERNOON. DECATUR WILL HAVE THE 22ND DAY AT OR ABOVE              
90F...SPRINGFIELD WILL BE THE 21ST DAY IN THE 90S...MATTOON THE 20TH            
DAY IN THE 90S...PEORIA THE 17TH DAY IN THE 90S AND CAMPAIGN THE                
11TH DAY IN THE 90S.                                                            
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                              
COLD FRONT NEAR THE IL RIVER AT 1730Z WILL MOVE SE TO I-72 BY 21Z               
AND TO I-70 BY 00Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS                    
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ABOVE 3 KFT. BEST CONVECTION CHANCES TO BE SE               
OF I-70 IN SE IL WHERE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HAVE LINE OF                
CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SE OF I-70 IN SE IL.            
CONTINUED VCTY TS ALONG I-74 TAF SITES OF PIA...BMI...CMI FROM MID              
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS               
MOVING INTO LOWER MI. HAVE BROKEN CU/SC CEILINGS TONIGHT FROM 3 TO              
4 KFT AND COULD GET LOWER AROUND CMI/BMI. THESE CLOUDS TO                       
SCATTERED OUT DURING MID MORNING THU AFTER 14/15Z AS 1027 MB                    
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SE INTO IA/WI THU.                
LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN NNE AND INCREASE TO 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT                
AND THU MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT.                                              
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                              
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING FRONT JUST WEST OF THE QUAD                    
CITIES THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER                  
CENTRAL IOWA QUICKLY DIMINISHED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE THE LOW                   
LEVEL JET WEAKENED AND VEERED.                                                  
HOWEVER... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DVN SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES SPREADING                       
SOUTHEAST FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE WAVE TRAIN               
ITSELF EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO KANSAS CITY AND BEYOND. A                   
SMALL CLUSTER OF WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS HAS FORMED JUST OUT AHEAD                
OF THIS FEATURE OVER FULTON COUNTY.                                             
STILL THINK THAT POPS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD ARE NOT WARRANTED FOR              
AREAS EAST OF I-55... DESPITE THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW/G-WAVE TRAIN.               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE DRIES OUT VERY QUICKLY EAST OF THE                   
ILLINOIS RIVER... AND 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A VERY DRY MID AND                
UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AS WELL... ALTHOUGH THIS HAS                    
LIKELY BEEN MODIFIED SOMEWHAT WEST OF I-55 BY NOW.                              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE                   
NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... PRIMARILY IN THE              
SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT... GENERALLY ALONG AND                
NORTH/WEST OF I-72.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING... WITH THE BULK OF THE                  
DYNAMICS WELL TO OUR NORTH... ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RRQ              
OF A 80-100KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH                  
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70... SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                        
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS               
WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... WITH              
A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                   
SLOWLY ATTEMPTING TO OOZE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AS THE              
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL                   
BECOME MORE WESTERLY... THUS HALTING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE... KEEPING IT CONTAINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.            
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TROUGH BY THIS EVENING... WITH JUST A SLIGHT              
CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON                    
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST... ESPECIALLY IF ANY MID-LEVEL                     
MOISTURE MANAGES TO HANG ABOUT.                                                 
OTHERWISE... COOLER AND DRIER WX IS ON THE WAY FOR THE REST OF THE              
WORK WEEK... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF                
THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS.                                                    
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER AN                
INITIAL COOL DOWN. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL INDICATES AN                     
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE                     
MIDWEST... ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES... BUT ALSO              
KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE               
COMPLICATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE                 
OVER THE PLAINS... AND AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE               
GULF.STILL NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIP ON THE IMMEDIATE                     
HORIZON HOWEVER.                                                                
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
326 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THIS                 
FORECAST AREA AND ONLY ISSUE LEFT IS LOWER CLOUDS AND DISSIPATING               
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. PROFILERS INDICATE MAIN AXIS              
IS THROUGH SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST            
TO SOUTHEAST. I EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO BE FINISHED BY AROUND                    
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS WITH LOW CLOUD COVER. AREAS REMAINING                
CLOUDY WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLEAR AREAS.                   
ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS NOTED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNDER THE HIGH              
PRESSURE...EXPECT THIS ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD COVERED OVERNIGHT             
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE RUC AND NAM RH PROGS. IF FAR                     
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS DOES CLEAR BEFORE MORNING MAY SEE SOME PATCHY               
FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...BUT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY                 
WINDS MAY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION SO DID NOT MENTION IN                
GRIDS.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TOMORROW WITH COOLER                        
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.                                                
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE/850MB RIDGE WILL              
BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KS AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH                     
SATURDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD KEEP A DRIER               
AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE DESPITE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON                   
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE            
CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SATURDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE BROAD UPPER               
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST                
PERIOD. AS THE 850MB/SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...WINDS SHOULD            
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE CWA NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD WARM HIGH              
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN             
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH              
ON SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY              
MOVE UPPER TROUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHWEST CONUS 5H             
TROUGH...AND IF THE GFS SOLUTION WERE TO BE CORRECT THIS WOULD CAUSE            
A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE 5H RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND                
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST BEHIND FRONT THAT HAS NOW                
PASSED SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT            
FROM KTOP NORTH TO KSTJ AND FURTHER EAST. THESE WILL DISSIPATE                  
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS                     
OVERNIGHT AT KTOP/KFOE AND KMHK. THIS SHOULD BREAK UP THURSDAY AFTER            
SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM NORTHEAST. EXPECT GOOD              
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
66/HARDING                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
352 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE             
LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A               
WEAK TROUGH IS OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO AND EASTERN U.P. ANOTHER               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. A FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN                
PLAINS AND ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER               
LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY AIR LAGS THE FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF             
SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER WEST END OF OUR CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX             
IS JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY CAUSING NORTHERN ONTARIO TO BE UNDER THE              
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THIS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING             
WAS PRODUCING SOME CUMULUS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.                               
.SHORT TERM...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.             
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO             
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS A LARGE RIDGE BLANKETS THE UPPER                       
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SPREADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                 
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS OVER THE REGION            
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL                
FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO             
AROUND 40...MAINLY OVER THE WEST. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER TO AROUND               
40F OVER THE WEST AS WELL AND THUS SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT              
MAINLY OVER THE WEST.                                                           
.LONG TERM (12Z THU THROUGH DAY 7)...                                           
FOR THURSDAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR. DID LOWER DEW                
POINTS A BIT IN THE WEST FOR THURSDAY. THOUGH MIXING FOR TOMORROW IS            
ONLY UP TO AROUND 900 MB AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS              
TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S...POSSIBLY LOWER IF BETTER MIXING IS                   
REALIZED. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN                  
FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF             
LAND. 850-300MB QVECTOR CONV. PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TIP OF            
KEWEENAW THOUGH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF QPF FOR            
THEM AND ISLE ROYALE...THE REST OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
DRY. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD WARM            
THINGS UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST REMAINS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN                   
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FA. NOT SO SURE ABOUT POPS FOR            
MONDAY MORNING AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW TAKES OVER AS RIDGE BUILDS IN              
FROM THE NORTH. BUT PROBABLY SAFER TO NOT CHANGE IT AS FRONTAL                  
TIMING WILL LIKELY SHIFT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. A SERIES OF WAVES                
THEN ARE PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...                  
DECIDED TO ADD IN POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS SOME TYPE OF BOUNDARY             
LOOKS TO BE LURKING IN THE AREA BY THIS TIME.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEPART AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN HAS                 
RESULTED IN IMPROVING CEILING AT BOTH SITES. AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS                
UPWIND INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH WINDS FLOWING INTO KSAW WILL            
YIELD AN IMPROVEMENT TREND. UNTIL THEN...UPSLOPING NORTH WINDS AND              
MOIST LOW LEVELS HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KSAW. SO...DELAYED               
RAISING CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CONVECTIVE             
TEMPERATURES OFF SOUNDINGS MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SIMILAR              
BASED CU REST OF AFTERNOON. HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE              
WINDS TO FALL OFF THROUGH THE EVENING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME LIGHT. AS            
TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVELS AIR MASS WITH BECOME                
SATURATED...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE. PATCHES OF FOG WILL              
DEVELOP IN AREAS OF VERY LITTLE MIXING. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER                 
JAMES BAY BY LATE WEEKEND RESULTS IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. 25 KT WINDS OVR EAST LK SUPERIOR                
SEEM POSSIBLE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS LOWER LEVEL WIND MAX PASSES            
ACROSS REGION. NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY SWITCHING WINDS             
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DLG                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...PEARSON                                                  
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
316 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE/SURFACE/UPPER AIR/RADAR AND               
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR OSCODA TO MOUNT             
PLEASANT ...MAKING STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE             
AXIS APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGE AREA OF MAINLY POST               
FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER JUST AHEAD OF VERY             
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER. PRESENCE             
OF WEAK MID LEVEL CAP HAS PREVENTED ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR            
SOUTHEAST ZONES...DESPITE UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG SURFACE BASED               
CAPE...PER LATEST LAPS DATA. WOULD THINK TIMING FOR ANY DECENT                  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS COME AND GONE WITH THICK CLOUD CANOPY              
QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS                  
THROUGH SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING                
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME CLEARING              
STARTING TO PUNCH INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UPPER. CLOUDS            
AND WEAK CAA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH             
MID AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S              
NEAR SAGINAW BAY (THIS AREA SEEN QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUNSHINE).              
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS RATHER MINIMAL AND                  
CENTER ON LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.                              
REST OF TODAY...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REST OF THE AREA BY            
EVENING AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO MICHIGAN. POST FRONTAL             
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WILL QUICKLY EXIT STAGE                    
RIGHT...WITH FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE             
COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE. AS MENTIONED...WITH             
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                
MICHIGAN (WHERE REMAINING SUNSHINE HAS BOOSTED SURFACE BASED CAPE TO            
2000-3000 J/KG)...WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE ALL THUNDER MENTION.                 
SHOWER THREAT SHOULD END BY 00Z AS LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING RAMPS UP            
BEHIND FRONT.                                                                   
TONIGHT...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW            
REGIME ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY            
SOUTHEAST ZONES...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS                      
850MB-500MB RH VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS BY MORNING. CUT GUIDANCE              
NUMBERS TONIGHT BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD...GIVEN EXTENT             
OF DRYING AND LOOKING UPSTREAM AT LAST NIGHT LOWS IN SIMILAR AIRMASS            
SET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ANTICIPATE LOWS BY MORNING TO FALL INTO             
THE UPPER 40S IN TYPICAL COOLER INTERIOR REGIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL               
LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...TO THE LOW TO MID 50S               
NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME POTENTIAL             
FOR LOCAL FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES WITH              
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WITH WIND SPEEDS TO                
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH...WOULD THINK ANY FOG WOULD BE AN                 
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE AND NOT WORTH A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE GRIDS.              
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NAM-WRF CU RULE AND               
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHALLOW BASED CU                
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AWAY              
FROM NEARSHORE MARINE INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY               
SKIES. GOOD MIXING UP THROUGH 850 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE                   
PROGGED TO RUN FROM 7C NORTH TO AROUND 9C SOUTH...SHOULD SUPPORT                
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.                              
MSB                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES REGION THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TALE END OF A SHORT WAVE WILL               
GRAZE OUR CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT MAJORITY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH              
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE                
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT              
DRY WX WILL PERSIST...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AND              
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.                                                        
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
SHIFT EAST OF MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY...REMAINING ALONG THE EASTERN                
SEABOARD THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PART OF THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND             
WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IN CONTROL.             
WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUD             
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE              
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
FRONT IS LIMITED...WHICH MAY TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY              
FROPA FOR LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL            
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR ERN UPR AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN SUNDAY                 
NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD THAT CHANCE INTO THE REST OF THE CWA ON                 
LABOR DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW                
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM. MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
FRONT NORTH OF MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND EVEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW             
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH                 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE                 
MOISTURE FIELDS EVOLVE OVER TIME. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE              
NORMAL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.               
ABUNDANT IFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT                 
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST....WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED              
BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA AND WISCONSIN. EXPECT A                 
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KPLN AND KTVC UNTIL CLEARING             
WORKS IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE                  
FORECAST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AS BUILDING HIGH            
PRESSURE BRINGS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                 
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
144 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.               
ABUNDANT IFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT                 
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST....WITH CLEARING SKIES NOTED              
BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA AND WISCONSIN. EXPECT A                 
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KPLN AND KTVC UNTIL CLEARING             
WORKS IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE                  
FORECAST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AS BUILDING HIGH            
PRESSURE BRINGS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                 
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1041 AM                                                     
MID MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALPENA              
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR FRANKFORT THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS                   
FRONT...WHICH HAD BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT UP ACROSS             
THE STRAITS REGION...BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST            
WITH APPROACH OF PRIMARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS                     
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. WHAT HAD BEEN A RELATIVELY            
DRY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND NOW GIVING WAY TO A STEADILY                   
EASTWARD ADVANCING AREA OF SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE            
SOO TO BELLAIRE DOWN THROUGH CADILLAC. PRIMARY DRIVEN MECHANISM FOR             
THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TWO FOLD...WITH LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ON             
NOSE OF WEAKISH 30 TO 35 KNOT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET CUTTING ACROSS                
LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT FROM VERY LOW                   
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER. FORECAST CONCERNS              
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON ADDITIONAL SHOWER...AND                  
PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES AS FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA.                    
AS MENTIONED...WITH APPROACH OF WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE...EXPECT FRONT              
TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                  
DAY...CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. UNTIL            
THAT TIME...EXPECT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS              
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE CUT ACROSS THE AREA...AS             
WELL AS WITH INCREASING FORCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL              
ZONE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND               
SOUTHERN ZONES...PER EARLY MORNING LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWING SOME                  
STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH IMPINGING LINE             
OF SHOWERS. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT                  
RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE                 
EXTENDING FROM HARRISVILLE TO HOUGHTON LAKE...WHERE SOME MORNING                
SUNSHINE HAS INCREASED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (LATEST LAPS DATA              
SHOWS UPWARDS OF 400 J/KG SURFACED BASED CAPE IN THIS AREA ALREADY).            
LATEST DAY 1 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALSO TARGETED THIS AREA FOR             
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODIFYING               
LATEST NAM-WRF POINT SOUNDINGS...USING A SURFACE AND DEWPOINT                   
TEMPERATURE OF 80 AND 68 RESPECTIVELY...DOES YIELD ON THE ORDER OF              
1000-1300 J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE IN THIS AREA...WITH APPROXIMATELY             
20 TO 30 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WITH THIS INHIBITION...WILL             
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THUNDER CHANCES AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE                
MENTION AT THIS TIME. IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN BE                           
REALIZED....SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK              
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS BEST                
TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.                 
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT                 
CHANGES WARRANTED.                                                              
UPDATED GRIDS/NEARSHORES/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 420 AM                                                  
03Z SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE                   
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH POINT TO GREEN BAY TO               
DES MOINES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (850MB DEWPOINTS BETWEEN                  
10-15C) COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW                
HAVE ALLOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE NE               
ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED KS/NE/IA.  CLOUD            
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING EARLY              
THIS MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHILE ONLY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO                
MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER.  BROAD TROUGH               
OVER MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND               
HELP DRIVE THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.  SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN                 
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
TODAY...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL               
PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY               
AROUND MIDDAY.  POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN                   
6.5-7.0C/KM AS NOTED ON THE 00Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS AND APPROXIMATED              
ELEVATED CAPE OFF OF NAM SOUNDINGS AROUND 1700 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM            
850MB AT 06Z WED NOT BEING REALIZED WITHOUT DECENT CONVERGENCE FROM             
LLJ.  NAM/GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOW ELEVATED CAPES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES DECREASING AS WELL AS 850MB LLJ WEAKENING AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS AGREES WITH CURRENT SATELLITE AND               
RADAR TRENDS...AND BELIEVE THE REMOVAL OF THUNDER WORDING WILL LOOK             
OK THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING HOWEVER...MODIFYING A NAM              
SOUNDING ACROSS THE SE CWA AT 15Z YIELDS 1100 J/KG OF ML CAPE...BUT             
ALSO 61 J/KG OF CIN FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/68.  THE WILD CARD IS            
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM INCOMING HEIGHT FALLS...COULD THIS BE ENOUGH            
TO ERODE THE CAP? THEREFORE...BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL            
BUT NOT SMALL ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM FORECAST SO WILL GO WITH                    
ISOLATED WORDING THROUGH 00Z FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC              
TO ALPENA.  AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET SEVERE IF DEEP CONVECTION IS            
ACHIEVED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35KTS AND PLENTY OF CAPE IN THE               
HAIL GROWTH ZONE.  SOME CLEARING WILL BE ACHIEVED BEHIND THE FRONT              
MOSTLY IN EASTERN UPPER...BUT IT WILL TAKE TO GET NORTH OF THE 850MB            
MOISTURE PLUME BEFORE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET ADVECTED INTO THE             
AREA.                                                                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WHILE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN DRIER AIR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE              
EVENING BEFORE SKIES GO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA            
OVERNIGHT.  A MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE               
40S IN YOUR COLD SPOTS (PELLSTON) TO THE MID 50S NEAR SAGINAW                   
BAY.                                                                            
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED             
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  PRESENCE OF LOW            
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING (850MB TEMPS 7-9C) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE YOUR GENERIC DIURNAL CU WILL POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO             
MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.  DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY            
EVENING LEAVING THE NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST LOCALES.  THE LONE              
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE A STRONG SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH                 
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR.  SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN DURING THE                 
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT ONLY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS               
WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE 50S NEAR THE              
LAKE SHORES.                                                                    
MPC                                                                             
REST OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY QUIET AND SUMMERY WX APPEARS IN STORE             
AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW            
ALOFT WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PUSH            
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN                 
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE FIRMLY IN                  
CONTROL...AND DRY AIR BELOW 750MB SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT                 
MINIMAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...A              
BROADENING 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STORM              
TRACK AND ANY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE WAY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AND              
MOST OF SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE            
INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...DRIVING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED INTO             
WESTERN SUPERIOR. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND/OR LABOR DAY...PER THE ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE                
ABOVE CLIMO...AND WARMING WITH TIME...FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
308 PM MDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...                                          
PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER COMING IN THE SHORT                  
TERM AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. RUC 500MB ANALYSIS                   
SHOWS HEIGHTS ALREADY REACHING 590DAM...AND DESPITE COOL MORNING                
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWER                    
ELEVATIONS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MIXING...BUT THE HIGHER SLOPES ARE               
QUITE WARM AND DRY WITH HUMIDITIES ALREADY IN THE TEENS. MOISTURE               
IS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH CAPPED AIRMASS WE HAVE                    
LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS AROUND YET EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                   
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ID/OR/WY...AND SW                  
FLOW WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO REACH OUR SW PARTS TOMORROW.                   
ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE THU AFTN/EVNG OVER OUR MTNS AND NEARBY                     
FOOTHILLS. THOUGH PWATS FROM REV TO LKN ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL                   
TODAY...WE WILL BE ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE TOMORROW...SO               
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED...AND ONLY A VERY SLIGHT RISK OF                 
LIGHTNING. GREATER CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTN AND NIGHT                
AS THIS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY                  
WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC TROF. GFS/NAM FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE                 
WATERS OF 0.75-1.00 INCHES...PRETTY GOOD FOR THE END OF AUGUST                  
THIS FAR NORTH. TIMING OF THIS TROF A BIT DIFFICULT NOW BUT MODELS              
ALL SHOW IT BRUSHING OUR NORTH LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING.                   
GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL MISS TO OUR NORTH BUT GIVEN MID LEVEL FROPA              
AND INCREASED MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS OUR                  
NORTHERN TIER EVEN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...               
WITH FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY. COULD SEE RECORDS                 
APPROACHED IN SOME PLACES FRIDAY. INCREASED INSTABILITY THE NEXT                
COUPLE DAYS ALONG WITH THE HOT WEATHER SHOULD ALLOW FOR IDAHO                   
FIRES TO PRODUCE GREATER PLUMES...SO IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN                
INCREASE IN SMOKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                      
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...CONCERNS WILL MOUNT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER              
TWO VERY WARM/DRY DAYS...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND INCREASED                  
WINDS AS RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED COULD BECOME ISSUES LATE FRIDAY               
INTO SATURDAY. MAY END UP NEEDING A WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD...AND                 
FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. ON THE BRIGHT              
SIDE...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY...IE HUMIDITIES IN               
OUR WEST SHOULD BE LOWEST ON THURSDAY...AND MONSOONAL SURGE                     
APPEARS TO BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME WET STORMS OR AT LEAST A MIX                
OF WET AND DRY.                                                                 
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...                           
MEDIUM MODELS AGREE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THIS                  
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS WARMER THAN NORMAL DESPITE               
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD                
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.                                                           
TROUGH DROPS INTO GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL                     
RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS CONTINUED                   
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. AT                              
MIDWEEK...MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME IN COMING TO                      
AGREEMENT. GFS TRYING TO BRING RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH THROUGH THE               
NORTHERN ROCKIES AT MIDWEEK WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCONSISTENT ON               
TIMING. NEW ECMWF NOW SAYS WAIT A MINUTE...ZONAL FLAT RIDGE MORE                
LIKELY. ONE THING TO NOTE...GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH               
THAN BEFORE...AND ECMWF HAS SYSTEM WAY UP NORTH IN CANADA.                      
HOWEVER...MODELS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE AT MIDWEEK.                            
THEREFORE...WILL OPT TO LET CURRENT FORECAST STAND FOR TUESDAY                  
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH BASICALLY TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. BT                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT                
AND INTO THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.                 
BT                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 056/093 061/094 061/091 058/089 056/091 056/086 055/078                     
    00/U    01/B    21/U    21/B    11/U    21/B    11/B                        
LVM 047/094 054/092 053/087 050/087 048/089 048/083 048/075                     
    01/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T                        
HDN 054/096 058/099 059/093 057/093 056/095 056/092 055/081                     
    00/U    01/U    21/U    21/B    11/U    20/U    01/B                        
MLS 059/093 062/099 063/094 059/090 058/092 058/089 057/081                     
    00/U    01/U    21/B    21/B    11/U    21/U    11/B                        
4BQ 056/093 062/097 062/094 058/091 057/093 058/090 056/081                     
    00/U    01/U    21/U    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T                        
BHK 056/091 061/096 061/091 056/087 057/089 057/088 056/079                     
    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    21/U    12/T                        
SHR 053/095 056/097 058/090 055/089 053/090 053/088 053/078                     
    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/B    12/T    11/U    11/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
326 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO                   
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER                
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING                   
DRIER AND COOLER AIR.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO                
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN. LATEST RUC40 INDICATES THAT A                
WEAK VORT MAX WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING...THUS                
GIVING LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWFA THE HIGHEST CHC FOR ACTIVITY.            
WILL CONTINUE HEAT HEADLINES FOR THE SW CWFA UNTIL 8 PM EDT                     
DESPITE THAT IT IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 100 DEGREES HEAT INDEX.              
CANCELLING IT NOW WITH IT STILL BEING VERY HOT FOR LATE AUGUST WOULD            
SERVE NO PURPOSE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL 12Z NAM-WRF MODEL FOR THE               
SHORT TERM PERIOD.                                                              
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER              
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING                         
INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THIS FRONT AND ITS               
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR                  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE NWRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH                
TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.                                           
ON THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.                       
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY AXIS WILL BE LINGERING BEHIND THE              
FRONT. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL                      
INSTABILITY...MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACRS THE SRN THIRD              
OF THE CWFA. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE                 
COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO                
AROUND 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                    
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY                 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL              
BE MUCH COOLER...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO                 
MID 60S SOUTH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.                 
THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS INTO ERLY                 
NEXT WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR HOLIDAY WEEKEND                 
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS. MAY SEE SCT CU DVLP IN NE                
FLO AND LO LVL CAA ON FRI...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM               
OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREAD THE              
REGION.                                                                         
SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO SELY BY SUN AS UPR RIDGE BEGINS ITS             
EXPANSION BACK INTO THE OH VLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRY ATMOSPHERE               
AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROMOTE NICE WARMING IN THE AFTNS SUNDAY             
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR TO ABV NORM LEVELS                
ONCE AGAIN.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ON TEMPS               
OVER SRN 1/2 FCST AREA WHERE MANY LOCATIONS ARE 10-12 INCHES BELOW              
NORMAL FOR PCPN THIS YEAR AND CONSEQUENTLY GROUND MOISTURE IS AT A              
PREMIUM.  KCVG IN PARTICULAR HAS CONSISTENTLY RISEN ABV MAV AND MEX             
GUID DURING THIS RECENT STRING OF HOT WX OVER THE LAST 4-5 WEEKS.               
MEX GUID APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCHUP ON THE TEMPS...WITH GUID                 
COMING IN WARMER BY A FEW DEG OVER LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS.                   
CONSEQUENTLY...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GOING AT OR ABV MEX                
GUID FOR HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED.  AFTN HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE              
L/M80S FRI/SAT...THEN RISE BACK INTO THE M/U80S NORTH INTO L90S                 
SOUTH FROM SUNDAY ON.  850 TEMPS RETURN TO 18-19C BY MON/TUES                   
AND CONSIDERING THAT KCVG HAS EASILY RISEN INTO THE M/U90S WITH 850             
TEMPS AT 20-21C...MAY EVEN NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEG FROM                 
90-92 RANGE IF WARMER TRENDS HOLD.                                              
WEAK COLD FRONT APPCHS REGION FROM NORTH ON TUES...BUT APPEARS BNDRY            
MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO FCST AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT.  AS A                     
RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACT FROM FRNTL BNDRY ATTM AND HAVE                
MAINTAINED DRY FCST THRU EXTENDED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
AREA OF HIGH BASED CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW OH AND SE IN. IT                    
SHOULD PERSIST TIL 00Z. EXPECTING IT TO STAY MAIN SCT IN                        
NATURE...BUT ILN COULD SEE A CIG. BASES SHOULD STAY VFR HOWEVER.                
KEPT CLOUDS SCT FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. MODELS DIFFER IN                 
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM...WHICH                 
KEPT HINTING SCT. BROUGHT IN SOME BKN AC AFT 06Z...BUT THAT COULD               
END UP BEING TOO MUCH.                                                          
WK FNT PUSHES THRU THE FA DURING THE MORNING. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT              
IS WEAK. ONLY WENT WITH MENTION OF A CB. FELT THAT A PROB30 FOR A               
TSTM WAS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.                                                 
OUTLOOK...TSTM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077.             
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-                  
     094>096.                                                                   
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                     
     KYZ091>093.                                                                
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ073>075-080.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...SITES                                                                
</pre> oh