AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF THE FA...BUT THAT WL CHANGE             
SOMEWHAT AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES. TWO STORM COMPLEXES ARE CURRENTLY              
DROPPING SEWD ACRS OK AND NERN TX...AND EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY            
TO RMN W OF AR. HOWEVER...SCTD SHRA/TSRA CONT TO FORM ACRS SRN AR               
ATTM AND THIS ACTIVITY WL WORK EWD THRU SUNRISE... MPACTING MAINLY              
KHOT/KPBF AND KLLQ WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT                 
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY FOG FORMING THRU DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL              
CONVECTION WL DVLP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TNGT             
AHEAD OF CDFNT. CONTD WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WHERE STORMS              
OCCUR. CONDS WL IMPROVE BEYOND THE FCST PD AS FNT PUSHES ACRS AR AND            
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BLD INTO THE REGION. /44/                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WHOLESALE UPDATED REQUIRED TO THE PACKAGE TONIGHT BASED ON NEW MODEL            
RUNS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRENDS. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVED               
FROM THE WEST EARLIER TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THE RESULT            
OVER MANY AREAS OF THE CWA WITH RADAR ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 5                  
INCHES IN MANY PLACES. HEAVIEST RAIN TO HIT A REPORTING STATION                 
RIGHT HERE AT KLZK WITH 3.26 IN THE BUCKET. STILL PLENTY OF RAIN IN             
THE AREA WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN              
AN AREA OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. MORE OF A                 
STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR A             
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SHORT WAVE/UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIP             
NOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PULLING OUT.                                    
ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER              
EASTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. LOOKING BACK AT PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATE            
THE NAM DID A SUPERIOR JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE GFS. LATEST              
RUNS SHOW MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NAM A LITTLE FASTER            
AND A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS. BELIEVE THE GFS MAY              
BE SLOWER DUE TO FEEDBACK CONCERNS AND AS SUCH WILL GO WITH A NAM               
SOLUTION FOR THIS REVISION. NAM ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE RUC AND SREF.             
MOISTURE CHANNEL ALREADY SHOWING THE MCS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER               
AND SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID MORNING.             
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES OFF THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING AND FORECAST             
TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE GULF.               
UPPER SYSTEM AND TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                 
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRAILING              
COLD FRONT SWEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                        
WILL INCREASE POPS TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH LIKELY POPS             
BY MID DAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST            
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN AND            
HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW                     
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. FRONT                    
EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH POPS              
BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE               
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH BUT ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST            
PUSH EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS EASTERN CONUS RIDGE DEEPENS TO             
GET IT THROUGH.                                                                 
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN APPEARS TO BE TARGETING THE NORTH. WAS TOYING              
WITH THE IDEA OF A FLOOD WATCH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST OF THE            
RAIN WILL FALL IN AN AREA THAT SAY THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP TODAY             
AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.                                                      
CHANGES WILL ALSO BE MADE TO CLOUD COVER AND AS SUCH HIGHS ON                   
TUESDAY. REST OF THE PACKAGE BEYOND WEDNESDAY WILL BE LEFT ALONE.               
UPDATES OUT BEFORE 930 PM.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ar                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
232 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THU)                                                               
...POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT 36 HOURS...           
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED W-NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WERE MOVING OUT OF WY              
INTO WRN NE/NWRN KS. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITTING ALONG THE NRN             
CO FRONT RANGE TO JUST N OF KLAA AND INTO WRN KS EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS            
SERN CO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
POPPING OVER THE CONTDVD AND ERN CO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTN. LAPS             
DATA HAD SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1K-2K J/KG AND LIFTED                 
INDICES AROUND -2C ACROSS MUCH OF THE S CNTRL/SERN CO LOWER                     
ELEVATIONS. LAPS...ALSO...SHOWING THERMAL CAPPING INVERSION...                  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STRONG ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS AND IS                 
WINNING OUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR SIGNIFICANT             
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO ENHANCE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.                        
TEMPERATURES AROUND 92F ARE REQUIRED TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS SERN CO            
PER LAPS SOUNDINGS. FOR SERN CO...WE MIGHT NEED TO WAIT FOR                     
THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO                
INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.                   
GREATEST DEEP VERTICAL LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG THE I-25             
CORRIDOR INTO THE ERN CO PLAINS WITH 30-45KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.              
LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...LATEST RUC40 MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFTING                
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHILE THE OTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM                     
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE WELL INTO KS. IN FACT...THE RUC40 DOES NOT                
HAVE ANY QPF INTO ERN CO THROUGH 03Z/12. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GO                 
AROUND THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO PLAINS...STRONG TO SEVERE                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY GIVEN THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT                  
KINEMATICS IN PLACE AS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. THE                 
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE ALREADY HAS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                      
MENTIONED...SO WILL MAINTAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE              
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 5 G/KG OVER            
THE MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR. ANY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO              
THE E OF CO OVERNIGHT.                                                          
THU...12Z/11 WRF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVING               
THROUGH ERN CO THU AM OR EARLY PM AND BANGING UP AGAINST THE SERN CO            
MOUNTAINS. THE WRF/S SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT BE RUNNING A LITTLE               
HIGH...A BIAS...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FUEL SHOULD BE IN PLACE.                
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR                       
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CO/NM                 
BORDER...ESPECIALLY BY THU AFTN. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL              
BE JUXTAPOSED WITH A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM                
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO S CNTRL CO. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD             
BE WEAKER THAN TODAY...HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SEVERE HAIL            
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO...A BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER EVENT COULD             
BE THE GREATER THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH H7-5H SPECIFIC             
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-7 G/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SERN CO ALONG                
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. I INCREASED POPS ALONG THE                
I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO MOUNTAINS FOR THU AFTN INTO THE /LIKELY/              
CATEGORY. MIGHT NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR OLD                   
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS...BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER               
LOOK AT IT. WE HAD HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN             
THE INHERITED DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE...SO WILL MAINTAIN. METZE               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                              
...POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND...                               
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CARRIES OVER               
INTO THE NIGHT THURSDAY AS THE NE PUSH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. PCPN               
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN CHALLENGE WILL BE                    
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL FIRE            
BACK UP DURING THE AFTN...BUT MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE MTS AND                  
WESTERN AREAS. BOTH INDICATE THAT THE E PLAINS WILL STAY RELATIVELY             
PCPN-FREE. WITH ALL THE LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HAVE A HARD TIME              
TOTALLY REMOVING POPS SO WILL STICK WITH THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE              
EAST...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS               
FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 80S...AND COULD BE THE LAST                
COOLER DAY OF THE FORECAST.                                                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT A                 
PATTERN CHANGE IS COMING TO THE UPPER FLOW...WITH THE RIDGE STARTING            
TO EDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS WILL MOVE COLORADO OUT OF THE NE                 
PORTION OF THE RIDGE THAT IS NORMALLY SO ACTIVE FOR THE REGION...AND            
TRENDED EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.                  
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS...LOOKS              
REASONABLE.                                                                     
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO DROP              
DOWN THE WEST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE                 
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US. THIS WOULD WARM THINGS             
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE CWA...AS WELL AS ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS            
THE 4 CORNERS AND INCREASING PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL OF THE MTS.                   
CURRENTLY GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS...FOCUSING ON THE MTS.             
THIS FAR OUT...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS A SAFE BET AND WILL NOT ADJUST             
MUCH. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE                       
PLAINS...70S AND 80S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT                  
MENTIONED...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEK SINCE            
SOME OF THE FIRE ZONES ARE ALREADY REACHING CRITICAL FUEL LEVELS.               
MOORE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z/12. ANY              
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE ERRATIC WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND MVFR/VFR                
CEILINGS. METZE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
429 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
STILL APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER SET UP ACROSS SE             
CO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW HAS                   
ADVECTED MID 50 DEW POINTS INTO SE CO AS OF 09Z...WITH AREA OF                  
STRATUS DEVELOP ALONG S SIDE OF PALMER DVD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE           
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY/SE PLAINS PER 11-3.9U FOG PRODUCT.                  
NAM12 IS OVER FORECASTING SFC DEW POINTS BY ITS NORMAL 5 DEGREES                
BIAS AS OF 09Z.  WV PICS SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NW                
FLOW ALOFT...ONE MOVING THROUGH NRN CO/SE WY WHICH IS KICKING OFF               
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR ACROSS WRN NE/NE CO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE              
EVIDENT IN SAT/RUC H3-H2 POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS IS BACK OVER SE             
ID WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN CO LATE THIS            
AFTN/EVENING...WITH AREA UNDER RR QUAD OF ASSOC UPPER JET                       
FEATURE.    STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP FROM A ROUGHLY                  
KDEN...TO KLIC...TO KLAA LINE BY 00Z THIS EVENING.  APPROACHING                 
SHORTWAVE...COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS             
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING                 
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTN...AND SPREADING TO THE                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CAPE...WITH UP TO 2000+               
J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND EAST            
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  GIVEN THAT NAM IS ALMOST ALWAYS ABOUT 5               
DEGREES TO HOT WITH SFC DEW POINTS...CAPES WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE            
LOWER...BUT WILL STILL BE VERY HEALTHY. LIS OFF THE 00Z NAM12 RUN               
WERE -4 TO -7 C...AND MODELS SHOWED LITTLE OR NO CAP BY LATE                    
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS.  WITH INCREASED NW FLOW                
ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEARS RANGE FROM 30-40 KTS...AND LOW LEVEL 0-1              
KM HELICITIES WERE AROUND 100-200 M2/S2 ALONG AND EAST OF THE                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LVL FLOW BACKS TO A MORE EASTERLY                    
DIRECTION.  THUS BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST            
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING              
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  COULD EVEN BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE EXTENDING TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CROWLEY...OTERO...KIOWA...BENT...AND PROWERS                   
COUNTIES BY EVENING.   SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX               
ACROSS SE CO/WRN KS OVERNIGHT.  THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR               
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT.  WILL             
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS CLOSELY AS WELL...AS IT DOESNT TAKE             
MUCH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE PROBLEMS FOR THESE AREAS...AND THINK MASON             
GULCH BURN SCAR/WET MOUNTAINS/WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREA MAY ALSO BE              
UNDER THE GUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SET UPS.               
WITH FLASH FLOOD THREAT LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED...AND GROUND              
FAIRLY DRY FROM LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SE                    
PLAINS...WILL NOT HOIST ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.                                
AS FOR WESTERN CO...HERE TOO MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY OVER                      
YESTERDAY...WITH WV PICS SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE AREA.                
SFC DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE                    
EASTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO PENETRATE                 
INTO THE VALLEY.  SO...SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS            
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY AFTN AS WELL.  COULD SEE               
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS            
WELL...THOUGH THREAT DOESN/T APPEAR AS GREAT AS ACROSS THE EASTERN              
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.                                                           
AS FOR GRIDS...COOLED OFF MAX TEMPS AND BEEFED UP EVENING POPS                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST                 
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE. -KT                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                      
...THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE WET WITH SOME SVR POTENTIAL...                       
...POP CHANCES AND STORM INTENSITY GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE             
   WEEKEND...                                                                   
ANOTHER SURGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON              
AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS. THIS WILL RELOAD THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND MAKE             
FOR ANOTEHR BUSY WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS WITH THESE                   
SURGES...IF THE LLVL AIRMASS IS TOO COOL...THEN NOT MUCH MAY                    
HAPPEN...HOWEVER...LAST FEW RUNS OF GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE               
WET AND THUNDERY ACROSS THE REGION...AND LIKEWISE...I PAINTED THE               
GRIDDS TO BE ON THE WET SIDE ON THU. OUR MAIN CONCERN ON THIS DAY               
MAY BE FLASH FLOODING...AND I HAVE PUT IN HEAVY RAIN INTO THE                   
DIGITAL FCST DATABASE. SVR POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE WITH US ON THIS               
DAY...BUT ORGANIZATIONS OF SVR WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN TODAY.                  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL CONTINUE UNDER NW FLOW AT                    
MIDLVLS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BE             
WEAKEN WITH TINME...AND SFC FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD            
DECREASE THE THREAT OF POPS OVER THE REGION...AND ALSO DECREASE THE             
INTENSITY OF THUNDER. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMING UP...WITH 90S               
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS.                                                        
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A RATHER DEEP                  
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE OF                 
THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE OVER OUR                   
REGION. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD PERMIT IT TO WARM UP AND DRY                 
OUT OVER THE CWA AS FLOW BECOMES SW AT MOST LEVELS. FIRE WX                     
CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH &&                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY               
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY                
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD              
BURN OFF BY 15-16Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE               
MOUNTAINS BY NOON...AND ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AFTER 3 PM.  IFR                   
CIGS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...VERY LARGE HAIL TO AROUND 2 INCHES             
IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL            
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE         
INTO A LARGE CLUSTER ACROSS SE CO OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA            
BY MORNING.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER MVFR TO IFR CIGS             
WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS ARE KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW                  
ACROSS THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS...HOWEVER IF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX                
SENDS AN EASTERLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA...THEN SOME PATCHY             
STRATUS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTH                
SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  SINCE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS                  
TIME...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOW CIGS OUT OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF               
SITES FOR NOW. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP HONE DOWN THESE                      
DETAILS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
230 PM MDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WED)                                                               
CURRENTLY...OLD PRECIPITATION OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG            
THE ERN CO MOUNTAINS INTO NERN NM AND THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES              
THIS AFTN. PRETTY QUIET RADARWISE...SO FAR...THIS AFTN. A FEW WEAK              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED AROUND THE CONTDVD AND FURTHER S               
INTO THE NM MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SO FOR...THAT IS IT. PLENTY OF               
LOW LEVEL FUEL(MOISTURE) SITTING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO            
PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. LAPS                    
SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE 1K-2K J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -5C             
IN THESE AREAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...SO FAR...IS WINNING OUT.                
THERE IS A RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH             
THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION...BUT NOT SURE              
IF IT IS ENOUGH TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER             
THE ERN CO MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CAPPING INVERSION              
OBVIOUSLY. NEW MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORMING OVER NWRN KS AND             
RESULTS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MOVED OUT            
OF NERN CO/SWRN NE INTO THIS AREA.                                              
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE RUC40...THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTDVD AND UPPER AR RIVER/SAN LUIS            
VALLEYS THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25               
CORRIDOR/SERN CO PLAINS WILL BE A BIGGER CHALLENGE. VERY TEMPTED TO             
JUST KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING GIVEN THE                  
POTENTIAL STILL EXIST...BUT NOT SURE IF ANYTHING WOULD FORM AT ALL.             
WILL LIKELY SEE ALL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET            
AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.                       
SURFACE-PBL LAYER RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AS THE LAYER COOLS.                   
POTENTIAL FOR RATIONAL STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS                 
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN CO PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY              
WED MORNING. I WARMED UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HIGHER               
TERRAIN AND NOCTURNAL THERMAL BELTS CONSIDERING KCPW AND KMYP HAD               
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S LAST NIGHT. ALSO...BOSQUE RAWS AND CANON CITY             
MESONET DATA SHOWED LOWS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING WARMING              
ALOFT TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES                
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.                                  
WED...ANOTHER CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DAY. OVERALL MIDDLE             
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE WITH THE LARGE HOT HIGH                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN/AZ...AND NW FLOW AT AND ABOVE              
MOUNTAIN TOP. WRF AND GFS ARE PERSISTENT WITH WARMING THE H7                    
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND +14C OVER SERN CO PLAINS TO +18C AROUND THE              
CONTDVD. RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO TODAY...ARE               
STILL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN               
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH THE NWLY STEERING CURRENTS DRIFT INTO               
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...PRETTY DECENT             
CAPPING INVERSION FORMS OVER THE EXTREME SERN CO PLAINS...SO SURFACE            
BASED INITIATION ACROSS THIS AREA MIGHT BE TOUGH AND WE WOULD NEED              
TO RELY ON ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS.                   
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT HAS SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 1K-3K J/KG AND                 
LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -7C ALONG AND E OF I-25 CORRIDOR LATE                  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING INVERSION HOLDS STRONG...             
EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS W OF I-25 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW               
ALOFT JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW LEVEL S-SELY FLOW...SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF             
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS AS 0-6KM                
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-40KTS IN THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AREAS.                
MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND                   
GUSTS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD BE                
POSSIBLE GIVEN H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5-7 G/KG...BUT                 
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO LESSEN THE HEAVY RAIN IMPACT. SPC STILL              
HAS MUCH OF ERN CO IN /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR WED...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE              
MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE. METZE                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)                                               
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...           
THE RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAYBE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN FOR TUE. A                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST                    
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE STATE STAYING ON THE NORTHEAST...                
BUSINESS END OF THE RIDGE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ACTIVE NW FLOW            
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH NEARLY DAILY LLVL FLOW FROM THE E TO NE...WILL            
CREATE A DAILY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND                
EASTERN PLAINS. OVER THE MTS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE                
DIURNAL WITH THE MAIN FORCING RESULTING FROM HEATING...AND TEMPS                
SHOULD STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND             
E SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN            
THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS. THIS                
SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO THE DAILY THREAT OF COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR             
INTRUDING FROM THE E TO NE. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME THE PAST                
FEW DAYS TRYING TO ACCURATELY PORTRAY THIS PATTERN...SO EXCESSIVE               
TIME TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A WASTE.                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE LATER               
WED NIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTION BEING OVER THE            
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE             
MCS FORMING OVER W NE AND W KS WED NIGHT...DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE              
CO/KS BORDER. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL...THEN IT              
WILL PUSH COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE E CO              
PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR STORMS FOR THURSDAY...BUT                
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER THIS COOLER AIR WILL MAKE THINGS TOO                  
STABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WET             
AFTN AND EVE FOR THE EAST...SO SCATTERED POPS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR              
THESE AREAS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS SET UP LOOKS TO REPEAT THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
TUESDAY...ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO DROP AN UPPER LOW DOWN THE COAST OF THE             
PAC NW...FINALLY PUSHING THE HI INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US.                
THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT              
IF THIS HAPPENS THEN THIS WILL BE THE FIRST BREAK IN THE PATTERN FOR            
QUITE SOME TIME. MOORE                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND AIRPORTS THIS EVENING. ANY                
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE ERRATIC WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
IFR-MVFR STRATUS TO FORM AT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 06Z/11 AND LAST                 
THROUGH 17Z/11. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KCOS AFTER              
06Z/11 TO 13Z/11. METZE                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN             
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.           
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAT. AN               
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY, AND TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT HIGHER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED WITH                    
YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS. DEW POINTS ALSO              
WERE HIGHER. THIS ARGUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE            
YESTERDAY OR MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. MIXING ISN`T                    
LOOKING LIE IT GOING TO HAPPEN, AND DEW POINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER AT               
MIDDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO THEY WERE UPDATED TOT HE LOWER              
AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THIS LEADS TO HIGHER HEAT INDICES,               
SO WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE EXCESSIVE               
HEAT WARNING AREA, ALSO UNTIL 6 PM. HOWEVER, ARGUING AGAINST SIMILAR            
HIGHS AS YESTERDAY, AND MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER, MORE                   
CLOUDS WERE FORMING OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH                  
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT TOWARD OUR AREA, AT LEAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN                   
ZONES. CAPES ARE MUCH HIGHER TODAY, IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG                    
RANGE, AND THE STABILITY IS LOWER WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 1                
OR MINUS 2; THE 12Z FOUS DATA SHOWS GENERALLY MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6                
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME CONVECTION FIRING OFF TO OUR                
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, WE SEE THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND               
INSTABILITY. AS TO A LIFTING MECHANISM, WE CERTAINLY REACH                      
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY, AND THERE COULD BE              
SOME (MARINE OR CONVECTIVE) BOUNDARIES FORMING AND CAUSING LIFT                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL                 
MOTIONS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BY 00Z WITH A SHORT                 
WAVE ALOFT, AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN                   
INCH. AT THIS POINT, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED NORTH               
AND WEST, AND ISOLATED NEAR, SOUTH, AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA.                   
SO, THE NET RESULT IS THAT WE WILL FORECAST HIGHS ABOUT AS THEY WERE            
YESTERDAY, AND RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS                
WELL AS ADJUST DEW POINTS TO CURRENT LEVELS AND INTERPOLATE TO MAV              
MOS FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED FAIRLY EARLY, THEN              
PLATEAU FOR AWHILE. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN             
NEAR 105, AND UP TO 108 FOR OUR HEAT ADVISORY ZONES. THE EXCESSIVE              
HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EXPIRATION, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY              
WILL JOIN IT, THROUGH 6 PM. ALSO, WE WILL BUMP PRECIPITATION                    
PROBABILITIES BY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD, MEANING CHANCE FOR                
OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. QPF WAS                 
CORRESPONDINGLY ADJUSTED, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM THE I-95                
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS          
TONIGHT, AND PREV FORECAST HAD SOME FAIRLY WARM MINIMUMS. THEY                  
SEEMED WARRANTED AND WERE KEPT.                                                 
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY, STILL SOMEWHAT FASTER PER               
THE GFS AS COMPARED TO THE WRF. WE STILL LOOK TO GET THE RIGHT REAR             
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET TO OUR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THURSDAY,             
AND THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE DIFFLUENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL              
IMPULSE ROTATES TOWARD US. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOWER LEVEL            
FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDE. THE H8 FLOW IS VERY MOIST BUT NOT VERY                  
STRONG. THE SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE,              
ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS A BIT OF              
BACKING IN THE MODEL SFC WINDS THAT ARE, IN PART, RESPONSIBLE FOR               
THIS, BUT THAT DOES NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON HIGH CAPES             
AWAY FROM THE COAST. SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK              
FOR THIS SYSTEM.                                                                
IF THE WRF IS RIGHT IN THE WAY IT DEVELOPS AN IMPULSE ALONG THE SFC             
FRONT, THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY. GIVEN THE PWATER VALUES IN            
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS OF 14 DEG C FROM BOTH THE                
WRF AND THE GFS, THAT WOULD MAKE THIS FRONT A SEVERE WEATHER AND A              
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, AND OUR QPF VALUES, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE             
BASIN AVERAGES, WOULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. THE GFS DOES NOT                   
SUPPORT THE WRF SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN SEF AND THE ECMWF ARE A                  
COMPROMISE. WE`LL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER                 
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO FOR NOW.                                      
WE GENERALLY KEPT CONTINUITY ON MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND MINS                
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN                 
THE WARMER MAV AND THE COOLER MET WAS CONSISTENT WITH THIS ON THE               
MAXES, AND BOTH STAT PACKAGES, IN GENERAL, AGREED WITH CONTINUITY               
ON THE MINS.                                                                    
EVEN THE SLOWEST MODEL DRIES OUT THE WHOLE FA BY 00Z FRIDAY DURING              
THIS RUN. WE KEPT A CHANCE FOR THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH, BUT NOT IN                
THE NORTH. WE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER STAT GUIDANCE FOR                        
THURSDAY MAXES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE              
ATLANTIC COAST.  DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE, THERE MAY OR MAY             
NOT BE A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE                   
FRONT.  FOR THE TIME BEING, WE`VE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
THERE`S A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND                   
OCCURRENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.                                      
THE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO             
HOLD FROM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE PATTERN IS                    
FORECAST TO BEGIN FLATTENING AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT               
WEEK, PERHAPS BRINGING A RETURN OF HOT HUMID CONDITIONS.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
MORNING VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE              
MORNING AS HUMIDITY LEVELS BUILD IN ADVANCE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S                
COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER THIS MORNING, AND               
IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME SPOTS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 OR 6 MILES IN HAZE            
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FOR NOW, THE TAF SITES WERE IMPROVED BY MID                
MORNING TO UNRESTRICTED. WE`LL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.                      
OTHER THAN THAT FLY IN THE OINTMENT, NO MAJOR CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED             
TODAY, AND SKY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST             
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT MORE CUMULUS MAY FORM, AND              
FORM TO HIGHER TOPS, PERHAPS 6 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET. THERE IS A SLIGHT            
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH A CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF                 
PHILADELPHIA, AND IT WAS DECIDED TO CARRY A CB REMARK FOR SEVERAL               
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GENERALLY                 
AROUND 10 KNOTS, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON            
FOR SOME AREAS, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15 TO 20 KNOTS.                
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY               
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING), AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR THE               
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF              
THE WEEK, EXCEPT DURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND DURING                   
PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAZE.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTH TO            
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT, WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 20 KT. WAVES ARE             
EXPECTED TO 2 TO 4 FT. WAVE WATCH TRIED TO BRING IN 5 FOOT SEAS FOR             
A FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS IS THE FIRST IT             
HAS SHOWED THIS IN A FEW DAYS, SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THIS                
FORECAST, THOUGH IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE MAIN FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY, THOUGH MODEL                
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WAVE OF             
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE                  
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS WILL HAVE AN               
EFFECT ON THE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.                                         
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     PAZ067>071.                                                                
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016-021>023.            
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     NJZ015-017>019.                                                            
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002-003.                
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     DEZ001.                                                                    
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008-012-015-            
     019-020.                                                                   
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DELISI                                                    
NEAR TERM...DELISI &                                                            
LONG TERM...DI                                                                  
AVIATION/MARINE...ROBERTSON &                                                   
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
830 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DECENT LOB OF ENERGY                  
STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA`S SOUTHWEST                
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MSAS ALSO                 
PLACES A TROF IN THE SAME VICINITY AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINED UP              
ON THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE              
STRONG TO SEVERE AND WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT...THEY MAY LAST WELL                
INTO THE EVENING. UPDATED THE ZONES EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS BUT MAY            
NOT HAVE ADJUSTED THEM UP ENOUGH. WILL REVISIT THIS AND MAY SEND OUT            
ANOTHER UPDATE SHORTLY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO CONCERNS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL               
REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS                   
EVENING...MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR              
EXPERIENCING A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD             
RAPIDLY DROP CONDITIONS FORM VFR TO IFR IN LITTLE TIME. THOSE SITES             
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING SUCH A STORM ARE ABY AND             
PFN...WHILE DHN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF ESCAPING THE CONVECTION                  
ALTOGETHER. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE THE STORMS HAVE COME TO AN            
END...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR AT ALL SITES WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF            
MVFR VIS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GMZ...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GOULD                                                                
SHORT TERM...BARRY                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1240 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
928 PM CDT                                                                      
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO THE               
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOHIGH OVER THE REGION...ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN              
DEKALB COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE             
COLD POOL...HAS SURGED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. REGIONAL                    
PROFILER NETWORK AND 88D VWPS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW //925MB//            
HAS INCREASED FROM THE SSW SOME THIS EVENING...WITH SOME CONVERGENCE            
NOTED IN THE PROFILERS OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. EVENING SOUNDING FROM             
DVN...AS WELL AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC INDICATE A               
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE                  
SURFACE LAYER. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 925MB HAVE NEARLY 2000                
J/KG OF CAPE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION.                            
RUC/WRF BOTH INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND               
SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE LOW LEVEL            
FLOW BEGINS TO VEER SOME ALLOWING CONVERGENCE TO DECREASE SOME LATE             
TONIGHT. UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY DOES BEGIN TO VEER WOULD             
ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS                 
EVENING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT                                
HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE              
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY.                               
VERY WEAK SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL REALLY MAKE IT                  
DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO GAIN TOO MUCH INTENSITY...DESPITE THE NEARLY            
2000 J/KG OF AVAILABLE CAPE.                                                    
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1000 PM CDT                                                                     
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE              
EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH               
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS               
SOUTHERN CANADA. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR                 
PROGGED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LIE            
JUST WEST OF OUR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. GFS/WRF/SREF GUIDANCE ALL                  
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW THIS FAR SOUTH WILL LAG                
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN COMPARATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER                
SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS NORTHWARD ACROSS WI/MI. ALL INDICATIONS            
ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20KT OR SO TOMORROW            
INTO TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT... SO DESPITE THE                      
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE NEARLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE              
PRESENT STORMS MAY STILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING              
THEMSELVES AND NOT BECOMING QUICKLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WEAK                      
SHEAR/LACK OF UPDRAFT SEPARATION COMBINED WITH RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL            
LAPSE RATES REALLY SUGGEST THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LATE TUESDAY               
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED DAMAGING                 
MICROBURSTS WITH THE HAIL THREAT MORE OF AN AFTER THOUGHT.                      
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW THEN PROGGED TO SET UP OVER               
NOAM WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES AND SHARP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME              
DELIGHTFULLY PLEASANT AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH H8              
TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WED AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF             
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN A GOOD 5-10F BELOW AVERAGE                 
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                            
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER A                 
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF EASTERN NOAM               
LONGWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A RE-ENFORCING                
SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY FRIDAY LOCALLY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL              
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE              
PRECIP POTENTIAL THURS NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH               
THE REGION.                                                                     
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 06Z TAFS...                                      
1240 AM CDT                                                                     
LINGERING SHWRS HAVE ALL BUT DSIPTD WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY AS SFC             
CONTINUES TO COOL.  SATLT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUD TOPS                  
WARMING OVR ENTR MIDWEST AREA AND WIND PROFILERS/ACARS DATA INDICATE            
VERY WEAK WIND FLOW BLO FL100.  THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AT               
THIS POINT OF HAVING ANY NOCTURNAL TSTM DVLPMT AND WILL CONTINUE                
WITH GENLY VFR FCST THRU 18Z.  WITH WEAK FLOW AND THINNING CLOUD                
COVER...ALONG WITH SMALL TEMP/DEW PPOINT SPREADS ACROSS AREA...WILL             
DROP VIS A BIT INTO HIGH END MVFR RANGE IN FOG ARND SUNRISE...BUT               
AGAIN WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS RMNG OVR RGN...DONT                 
EXPECT THIS TO BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.                                            
VIGOROUS UPR LVL WX SYS NOW CENTERED OVR SRN MANITOBA IS CONTG TO               
DIG SEWD TWD UPR MIDWEST.  THIS FEATURE WILL INCRS SLY-SWLY SFC FLOW            
AS PRESSURE FALLS INCR AHD OF THIS TROF THIS AFTN.  IN TURN...THIS              
WILL REPLENISH WARM/HUMID AIR MASS WORKED OVER BY THIS AFTERNOON/S              
CONVECTION.  THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENUF SFC HEATING A GOOD PORTION OF            
TDY TO ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN BY MID AFTN.  BASED ON             
THIS...EXPECT CU/TCU TO DVLP AFT 17-18Z AND BUILD INTO TSTMS BY MID             
AFTN IN ISOLD-SCT COVG.  THEREFORE WILL HAVE VCTS IN AFT 20Z.  AS               
SYS TO NW APCHS...MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FCST              
ALG/AHD OF ASSD COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW-SE               
ACRS TERMINAL AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z.  STG PRES RISES BHD FRONT               
SUGGEST RAPID WINDSHFT TO NW AND QUICK CLRG AFT FROPA.                          
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
300 PM CDT                                                                      
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO                   
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4                 
INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THIS EVENING.  THIS LOW WILL MOVE                   
EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS                   
EASTERN ONTATIO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT                   
ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING DOWN THE LAKE               
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH             
THE DAY.  AFTER THE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL                 
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN FAIR AND DRY                  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.                              
GITRO                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LOT                                                                         
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                                         
SCT TSRA CONTINUES NEAR ISSUANCE TIME JUST WEST OF KGCK. THIS                   
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG               
LOW LEVEL THTA-E AXIS. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER WILL BE DEVELOPING              
EAST OF KDDC AND IN THE KHYS AREA TOWARDS 12Z. RUC AND GFS                      
CONTINUE TO SHOW 85H WAA DEVELOPING AFTER 9Z AS SOME WEAK 5H COOLING            
ACCOMPANIES A S/W TROF. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE PCPN INCREASE IN                 
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE                 
BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. KDDC WILL BE ON THE                  
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS PCPN SHIELD SO WILL KEEP VCTS GOING HERE                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A PREVAILING TSRA FOR HYS.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING H3 100KT JET MAX MOVING SOUTH INTO               
EXTREME NW MN WITH LARGE AREA OF +70KT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS                      
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. H5 REVEALED STRONG UPPER LOW                
OVER ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED S/WV MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. COLD               
AIR AT H7 WAS FILTERING INTO MN WITH READINGS AROUND -5C.  ACROSS               
THE DAKOTAS, 0C AIR COULD BE FOUND. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,                  
SINGLE DIGITS COULD BE FOUND. AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE LINGERED FROM WRN KS SOUTH INTO NE TX AREAS EAST.                      
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA WILL BE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT                
(POTENTIALLY SEVERE) THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.                               
FIRST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR               
SCENARIO TO PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NE FA BY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED            
IF THIS OCCURS AS THETA-E AXIS AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET PUSH ACROSS            
CENTRAL FA. H85-H3 WINDS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD MOVE ANY                 
PRECIP AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN FA OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON INCREASING POPS            
A BIT IN EASTERN FA TONIGHT. SECOND CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE            
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN CWA WILL TAKE PLACE THIS                
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE              
BASED MOISTURE IS RETURNING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20MPH WITH                    
HIGHER GUSTS MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS                  
ACROSS WESTERN KS HAVE ALLOWED SBCAPE TO BEGIN TO CLIMB. LIS HAVE               
FALLEN BELOW 0C ACROSS WESTERN FA (NEAR CO BORDER). LOW PRESSURE                
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
AROUND 7 C/KM NEARBY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN               
KS, SHOULD SEE A FEW OF THEM BECOME/REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE. ENVIRONMENT        
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE                  
EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.                                                          
THURSDAY, AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE             
SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF               
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL FLOW SOUTHWEST AROUND THE SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS               
WILL CLIMB INTO THE WEST 60S TO AROUND 70 EAST. MODELS ARE                      
DISAGREEING ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT/LOW PRESSURE. EITHER WAY,             
THETA-E AXIS IS SITUATED ACROSS CWA ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO AGREE ON              
ONE THING, THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS SOMEWHERE ACROSS FA BY EVENING.            
GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, WOULD EXPECT TO SEE HEAVY RAIN            
BY EVENING SOMEWHERE IN CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE KEPT ACROSS               
SOUTHERN FA AS THIS LOCATION WILL HOST THE LOW/FRONTAL POSITION FOR             
PRECIP FOCUS. WHERE MCS DOES TRAVEL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL              
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL TAPER             
OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AS COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH.                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO CWA BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT             
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. CAA WILL MOVE ACROSS FA WITH              
H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WILL LEAVE FRIDAY COOL AND               
DRY.                                                                            
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER A COOL AND WET WEEK ACROSS KANSAS THIS WEEK, THE WEATHER WILL             
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FEEL NEXT WEEK.                             
I HAVE NOTHING NEW TO REPORT FROM WHAT I SAID IN YESTERDAY`S                    
DISCUSSION REGARDING THE CURRENT SITUATION GLOBALLY. USING THE                  
CLIMATE TOOLS FROM THE MAP ROOM ON THE CDC WEBSITE, A TRANSITION                
FROM GSDM (GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL) STAGE 2 TO 1 HAS MOST                 
LIKELY OCCURRED ALREADY AND THE RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGE IS                      
COMING.                                                                         
ALL OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HEIGHTS WILL                 
GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE                  
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHIFTS              
EAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT A STAGE 1 REGIME IN THE SUMMER                
TYPICALLY MEANS TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE                     
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. SO ASIDE FROM THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF STORMS               
OUT IN THE FAR WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING, WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST               
GOING THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7 (NEXT WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL                
GRADUALLY WARM FROM BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK BACK TO NEAR NORMAL             
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
FOR THE WEEK 2 FORECAST I AM INCLINED TO KEEP NEAR NORMAL GOING FOR             
TEMPS AND PRECIP. UPPER RIDGES HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON VERY               
LONG THIS SUMMER DUE TO THE CONTINUAL BACK AND FORTH SHIFTS BETWEEN             
GSDM STAGES 1 AND 2.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 12 TO 24               
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO              
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT I             
CAN`T PREDICT EXACTLY WHEN THESE STORMS WILL ARRIVE AT THE                      
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS I WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP VCTS IN THE              
TAFS FROM EARLY EVENING ON. A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR              
IS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN INTENSE AS THE MOVE ACROSS AND              
THE EVENING SHIFT CAN ALWAYS UPDATE THE TAFS AT 00Z OR AFTERWARD                
WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HIT.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  65  89  64  81 /  60  50  50  10                                           
GCK  65  88  63  81 /   0  40  40  10                                           
EHA  66  89  63  83 /  30  50  60  10                                           
LBL  66  91  64  83 /   0  50  60  20                                           
HYS  64  86  63  82 /  60  50  20  10                                           
P28  68  89  66  82 /  70  70  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN30/27/18                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)              
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FORWARD PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS              
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE SALINA TAF BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE WATCHING                     
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOR THE NEXT MCS TO DEVELOP AND             
TRAVEL DOWN THE PIKE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS                      
OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT                
APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE IN AFTER             
04Z. WE WILL ONLY GO WITH VCTS IN THE TAF`S FOR NOW.                            
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT ANOTHER UPDATE TO MODIFY THE POPS FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR/RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE BACKBUILDING MESOSCALE             
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION             
TO THE EAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE 700MB FLOW VEERING OUT A                
LITTLE MORE DURING THE LAST HOUR...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST                      
PROFILERS. SO FAR...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN                  
AROUND 0.50-1.00 IN CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THIS CLUSTER SHOULD MOVE               
OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z OR SO. RUC/NAM 12Z RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO                
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN 310-315K ACROSS               
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL HELP              
IGNITE MORE ELEVATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WOULD            
NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE.                                                 
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL               
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING.                                          
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS             
CONTINUING TO FESTER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS             
LIKE THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE               
BETWEEN 310 AND 315K. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MID LEVEL FLOW                 
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TEND TO WEAK              
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY                
THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 310-315K.               
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL LIKELY INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL                           
KANSAS...ALONG ZONE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.                          
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS                 
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING...ALONG ZONE OF                
850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY                   
SHOULD REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND THE                 
NOON HOUR. ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH PLAINS                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR              
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AS VERY SHARP              
925-800MB MOISTURE GRADIENT SURGES NORTHEASTWARD. DID NOT INSERT                
VCTS IN TAFS JUST YET...AS TIMING/LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION.                
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE                
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...                                                         
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL                  
STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE MID               
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF INTO SOME ALTOCU WHICH               
WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A REMOTE SHOWER CHANCE IS                
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MID LEVEL                      
MOISTENING AND LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY GREATER. THIS LIFT WILL                  
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME COUPLED WITH A STRONGER LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE                
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS              
WESTERN KANSAS AND SHOULD BE EASILY MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES                 
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA OF ELEVATED LIFT AND INSTABILITY                  
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS. THE GIVEN SHEAR AND                  
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED                 
SEVERE...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE MAIN                     
CONCERN LATER IN THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE                 
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THIS PACKAGE...THOUGH NOT                    
ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH YET. HOWEVER THE DAY SHIFT              
WILL NEED TO GIVE THIS CONTINUED CONSIDERATION.                                 
A MESOSCALE COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTION OF THE FORECAST               
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS. THIS COULD AFFECT CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON ON              
THURSDAY...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND DIURNAL HEATING               
CONTRIBUTION. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY IT RATHER WARM...AND FIGURE               
ON REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. IF                     
SO...THE GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD BECOME ADEQUATE ENOUGH               
FOR A SEVERE EPISODE AND HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR                  
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                                           
BY FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN SETTLE                
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS ANOTHER MODIFIED               
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THIS WILL END RAIN                
CHANCES AND LOOKS TO GIVE US A RELATIVELY PLEASANT WEEKEND.                     
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF SET: VFR CEILINGS & VSBYS ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREAS                     
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SE                 
ACROSS NEBRASKA.                                                                
EPS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    84  66  85  65 /  20  60  50  40                                
HUTCHINSON      84  65  85  63 /  30  60  50  30                                
NEWTON          83  65  85  63 /  20  60  50  30                                
ELDORADO        83  64  84  63 /  10  60  50  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  66 /  10  60  50  50                                
RUSSELL         84  64  86  62 /  80  60  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      84  64  86  63 /  70  60  40  30                                
SALINA          85  65  87  63 /  60  60  40  20                                
MCPHERSON       84  65  85  63 /  40  60  40  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     84  64  84  65 /  10  40  50  50                                
CHANUTE         83  64  83  63 /  10  40  50  30                                
IOLA            83  64  83  63 /  10  40  50  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    83  64  83  64 /  10  40  50  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING OUT ANOTHER UPDATE TO MODIFY THE POPS FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR/RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE BACKBUILDING MESOSCALE             
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION             
TO THE EAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE 700MB FLOW VEERING OUT A                
LITTLE MORE DURING THE LAST HOUR...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST                      
PROFILERS. SO FAR...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN                  
AROUND 0.50-1.00 IN CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THIS CLUSTER SHOULD MOVE               
OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z OR SO. RUC/NAM 12Z RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO                
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN 310-315K ACROSS               
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL HELP              
IGNITE MORE ELEVATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WOULD            
NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE.                                                 
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL               
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING.                                          
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS             
CONTINUING TO FESTER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS             
LIKE THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE               
BETWEEN 310 AND 315K. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MID LEVEL FLOW                 
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TEND TO WEAK              
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY                
THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 310-315K.               
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL LIKELY INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL                           
KANSAS...ALONG ZONE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.                          
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS                 
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING...ALONG ZONE OF                
850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY                   
SHOULD REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND THE                 
NOON HOUR. ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH PLAINS                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FOR              
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AS VERY SHARP              
925-800MB MOISTURE GRADIENT SURGES NORTHEASTWARD. DID NOT INSERT                
VCTS IN TAFS JUST YET...AS TIMING/LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION.                
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE                
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...                                                         
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE             
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL                  
STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE MID               
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF INTO SOME ALTOCU WHICH               
WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A REMOTE SHOWER CHANCE IS                
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MID LEVEL                      
MOISTENING AND LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY GREATER. THIS LIFT WILL                  
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME COUPLED WITH A STRONGER LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE                
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS              
WESTERN KANSAS AND SHOULD BE EASILY MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES                 
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA OF ELEVATED LIFT AND INSTABILITY                  
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS. THE GIVEN SHEAR AND                  
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED                 
SEVERE...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE MAIN                     
CONCERN LATER IN THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE                 
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THIS PACKAGE...THOUGH NOT                    
ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH YET. HOWEVER THE DAY SHIFT              
WILL NEED TO GIVE THIS CONTINUED CONSIDERATION.                                 
A MESOSCALE COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTION OF THE FORECAST               
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS. THIS COULD AFFECT CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON ON              
THURSDAY...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND DIURNAL HEATING               
CONTRIBUTION. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY IT RATHER WARM...AND FIGURE               
ON REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. IF                     
SO...THE GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD BECOME ADEQUATE ENOUGH               
FOR A SEVERE EPISODE AND HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR                  
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                                           
BY FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL AGAIN SETTLE                
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS ANOTHER MODIFIED               
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THIS WILL END RAIN                
CHANCES AND LOOKS TO GIVE US A RELATIVELY PLEASANT WEEKEND.                     
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF SET: VFR CEILINGS & VSBYS ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREAS                     
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SE                 
ACROSS NEBRASKA.                                                                
EPS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    84  66  85  65 /  20  60  50  40                                
HUTCHINSON      84  65  85  63 /  30  60  50  30                                
NEWTON          83  65  85  63 /  20  60  50  30                                
ELDORADO        83  64  84  63 /  10  60  50  40                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  66 /  10  60  50  50                                
RUSSELL         84  64  86  62 /  80  60  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      84  64  86  63 /  70  60  40  30                                
SALINA          85  65  87  63 /  60  60  40  20                                
MCPHERSON       84  65  85  63 /  40  60  40  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     84  64  84  65 /  10  40  50  50                                
CHANUTE         83  64  83  63 /  10  40  50  30                                
IOLA            83  64  83  63 /  10  40  50  30                                
PARSONS-KPPF    83  64  83  64 /  10  40  50  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
353 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUICK LOOK AT RADAR SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING FROM THE AC ACROSS NORTH            
CENTRAL KS. THINK THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 700             
MB. THE 06Z RUC AND 00Z GFS SHOW THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING                
THROUGH MID MORNING SO HAVE ADDED SOME SMALL POPS FOR ISOLATED                  
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION /315 AM CDT/                                                   
FORECAST CONCERN CENTERED AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND                    
ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES.                                                      
07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA               
AND THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM               
THE LAKES. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...FORECAST AREA            
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SFC COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUE              
TO ADVECT SOUTH AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                  
EXPECT TODAY TO BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS                  
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WEAK CAA THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME MID                
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE WARM. THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL             
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES                  
RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG WAA                
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE SHALLOW SFC RIDGE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS             
INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KS                
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROVIDING SOME LIFT. PER THE SWODY1 FROM                
SPC...THIS MAY AID IN SUSTAINING ANY CONVECTION THAT COMES OFF THE              
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE ANY              
MCS EAST SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH THE            
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THE LOWEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS WHICH                
SHOULD BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE POTENTIAL MCS PATH.                          
CONVECTION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CLEAR AS OVERNIGHT            
CONVECTION COULD STILL BE ONGOING. MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER COLD                 
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. IF THERE IS A               
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AND WE GET SOME INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE                     
FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH                 
THINK THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS AND             
SUBSEQUENTLY THE CAPE. ADDITIONALLY THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE             
FEEDBACK AND MAKES THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS USELESS. HAVE THE                 
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WERE THERE COULD BE PRECIP                  
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING THEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK            
HEATING. DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THURSDAY                         
EVENING...AND BY 06Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.                
WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION...LOWERED MIN            
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THINK HIGHS WILL ONCE              
AGAIN HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO LOWER             
DEWPOINTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE                 
AREA.                                                                           
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST             
DE-AMPLIFIES AND THE MEAN WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN            
AND US BORDER. WOULD EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO ENSUE WHICH GOING                
FORECAST REFLECTS. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE MEAN WESTERLIES WELL NORTH             
AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DO NOT SEE A STRONG SIGNAL               
FOR ADDING PRECIP CHANCES. THEREFORE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH              
TUESDAY REMAINS INTACT.                                                         
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO STREAM                            
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AVIATION AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. SCATTERED              
TO BROKEN CEILINGS AT 12000 FT WILL BE COMMON FROM MORNING INTO THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE ADVECTING INTO THE               
REGION...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE REASONABLY GOOD AND THIS COMBINED             
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL HELP DETER FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.            
EXPECT ELEVATED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO STAY WEST OF FOE AND              
TOP...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MHK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.            
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION                
SECTION.                                                                        
BLAIR                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING OUT ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE/REMOVE POPS                   
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS LIKE THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY             
CONVECTION WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE WILL HAVE WATCH THE MCS POTENTIAL IN               
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.                                                 
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS             
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                                  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE COOL FRONT MOVING FAIRLY                 
QUICKLY THROUGH RUSSELL AND SALINA WITH GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES             
BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH                
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND REACH HUTCHINSON BY             
17Z AND WICHITA BY 19Z. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND NOT             
REACH CHANUTE UNTIL 20 OR 21Z. FOR NOW...WE ARE REMOVING ANY                    
THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS THE HUTCHINSON AND WICHITA TAF SITES AND            
KEEP THE VCTS IN CHANUTE. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT/BKN CUMULUS                     
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN                
VFR.                                                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING             
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE SOME REMNANT DEBRIS FROM A POTENTIAL              
MCS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE CEILINGS SHOULD                  
REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.                                                             
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN ESCAPE ANY                      
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING TWO MESOSCALE             
VORT LOBES (MCV). ONE OF THEM IS EVIDENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS WHILE THE OTHER IS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST               
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO            
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. LOOKING            
AT THE LATEST RUC...IT IS DEPICTING THE MCV ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS             
MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME DECENT             
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS THE MCV IN NORTHWEST            
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN WESTERN KANSAS                
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT            
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.                  
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY BE WORKING AGAINST THE LARGE SCALE                     
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE WENT AHEAD AND                
YANKED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE FRONT                
SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THAT REGION. WE HAVE KEPT POPS                 
GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS JUST IN CASE WE SEE             
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS             
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.                                                        
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTHEAST TODAY...FOCUSING BEST                     
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF                
THE TURNPIKE. LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE SCOURED OUT FROM                    
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND COLD               
FRONT. ONCE COLD FRONT PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.                     
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION TODAY AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AGAIN...                                                               
A FEW CLUSTERED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ON MONDAY...ACROSS                 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE                   
MCV RESPONSIBLE IN GREAT PART FOR THIS HAD MOVED INTO EXTREME                   
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SYNOPTIC                     
SCALE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...PUSHING A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL NEED SOME TIME TO RECOVER                     
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING                 
AND THE REMAINING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD                      
FUEL RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND                    
JUST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH THE BETTER                 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WE                  
MAY STILL REALIZE SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH                   
THE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL                 
REMAIN CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST                  
KANSAS INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS                
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...FORECAST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE AREAL                
EXTENT OF THE QPF WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLOOD                    
WATCH. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN               
THE GRIDS/ZFP AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/WEATHER STORY.                      
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE                      
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GIVING THE AREA A BREAK FROM                  
THE RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE                 
RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RETURN                     
NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE                  
MODEST CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE LATEST MODELS                      
SUGGEST ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY                    
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE DEEPENING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND                    
EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH               
TO DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS                  
EASTERN KANSAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER FORECAST PERIODS INTO THE                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF SET:                                                                    
SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED TO SE KS WHERE MVFR CIGS BKN025CB LIKELY               
TIL ~10Z AT KCNU AROUND WHICH TIME CIGS MAY LOWER TO BKN015 WHERE               
BETTER ALIGNED WITH 850-MB MOISTURE CHANNEL. MVFR CIGS TO LINGER                
OVER KCNU TIL ~18Z WHEN INVERTED 850-MB RIDGE BUILDING S/SE OVER                
WRN PLAINS ENABLES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.                
IN SC KS CHANCES FOR TSRA AT KICT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH                     
HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BKN015-025 LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH                 
~20Z UNTIL INFLUENCE OF AFORE-MENTIONED INVERTED 850-MB RIDGE HAS               
INCREASED. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SLATED FOR KRSL & KSLN TAF SITES                      
THROUGHOUT DURATION.                                                            
ES                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    89  66  84  66 /  20  10  10  30                                
HUTCHINSON      89  64  84  65 /  20  10  10  40                                
NEWTON          89  65  84  65 /  20  10  10  30                                
ELDORADO        89  66  84  64 /  20  10  10  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  67  85  66 /  20  20  10  20                                
RUSSELL         89  60  84  65 /  20  10  10  40                                
GREAT BEND      89  62  84  65 /  20  10  10  40                                
SALINA          90  63  85  65 /  20  10  10  40                                
MCPHERSON       89  64  84  65 /  20  10  10  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     87  66  84  65 /  30  20  10  10                                
CHANUTE         87  65  83  64 /  30  20  10  10                                
IOLA            88  64  83  63 /  30  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  84  64 /  30  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1124 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS             
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                                  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE COOL FRONT MOVING FAIRLY                 
QUICKLY THROUGH RUSSELL AND SALINA WITH GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES             
BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH                
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND REACH HUTCHINSON BY             
17Z AND WICHITA BY 19Z. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND NOT             
REACH CHANUTE UNTIL 20 OR 21Z. FOR NOW...WE ARE REMOVING ANY                    
THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS THE HUTCHINSON AND WICHITA TAF SITES AND            
KEEP THE VCTS IN CHANUTE. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT/BKN CUMULUS                     
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN                
VFR.                                                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING             
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE SOME REMNANT DEBRIS FROM A POTENTIAL              
MCS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE CEILINGS SHOULD                  
REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.                                                             
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN ESCAPE ANY                      
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING TWO MESOSCALE             
VORT LOBES (MCV). ONE OF THEM IS EVIDENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS WHILE THE OTHER IS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST               
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO            
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. LOOKING            
AT THE LATEST RUC...IT IS DEPICTING THE MCV ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS             
MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME DECENT             
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS THE MCV IN NORTHWEST            
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN WESTERN KANSAS                
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT            
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.                  
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY BE WORKING AGAINST THE LARGE SCALE                     
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE WENT AHEAD AND                
YANKED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE FRONT                
SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THAT REGION. WE HAVE KEPT POPS                 
GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS JUST IN CASE WE SEE             
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS             
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.                                                        
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTHEAST TODAY...FOCUSING BEST                     
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF                
THE TURNPIKE. LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE SCOURED OUT FROM                    
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND COLD               
FRONT. ONCE COLD FRONT PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.                     
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION TODAY AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AGAIN...                                                               
A FEW CLUSTERED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ON MONDAY...ACROSS                 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE                   
MCV RESPONSIBLE IN GREAT PART FOR THIS HAD MOVED INTO EXTREME                   
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SYNOPTIC                     
SCALE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...PUSHING A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL NEED SOME TIME TO RECOVER                     
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING                 
AND THE REMAINING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD                      
FUEL RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND                    
JUST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH THE BETTER                 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WE                  
MAY STILL REALIZE SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH                   
THE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL                 
REMAIN CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST                  
KANSAS INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS                
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...FORECAST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE AREAL                
EXTENT OF THE QPF WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLOOD                    
WATCH. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN               
THE GRIDS/ZFP AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/WEATHER STORY.                      
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE                      
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GIVING THE AREA A BREAK FROM                  
THE RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE                 
RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RETURN                     
NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE                  
MODEST CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE LATEST MODELS                      
SUGGEST ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY                    
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE DEEPENING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND                    
EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH               
TO DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS                  
EASTERN KANSAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER FORECAST PERIODS INTO THE                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF SET:                                                                    
SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED TO SE KS WHERE MVFR CIGS BKN025CB LIKELY               
TIL ~10Z AT KCNU AROUND WHICH TIME CIGS MAY LOWER TO BKN015 WHERE               
BETTER ALIGNED WITH 850-MB MOISTURE CHANNEL. MVFR CIGS TO LINGER                
OVER KCNU TIL ~18Z WHEN INVERTED 850-MB RIDGE BUILDING S/SE OVER                
WRN PLAINS ENABLES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.                
IN SC KS CHANCES FOR TSRA AT KICT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH                     
HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BKN015-025 LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH                 
~20Z UNTIL INFLUENCE OF AFORE-MENTIONED INVERTED 850-MB RIDGE HAS               
INCREASED. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SLATED FOR KRSL & KSLN TAF SITES                      
THROUGHOUT DURATION.                                                            
ES                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    89  66  84  66 /  20  40  10  30                                
HUTCHINSON      89  64  84  65 /  20  30  10  40                                
NEWTON          89  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  30                                
ELDORADO        89  66  84  64 /  20  40  10  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  67  85  66 /  30  50  10  20                                
RUSSELL         89  60  84  65 /  20  20  10  40                                
GREAT BEND      89  62  84  65 /  20  30  10  40                                
SALINA          90  63  85  65 /  20  20  10  40                                
MCPHERSON       89  64  84  65 /  20  30  10  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     87  66  84  65 /  30  50  10  10                                
CHANUTE         87  65  83  64 /  30  50  10  10                                
IOLA            88  64  83  63 /  30  40  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  84  64 /  30  50  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN ESCAPE ANY                      
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING TWO MESOSCALE             
VORT LOBES (MCV). ONE OF THEM IS EVIDENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS WHILE THE OTHER IS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST               
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO            
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. LOOKING            
AT THE LATEST RUC...IT IS DEPICTING THE MCV ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS             
MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME DECENT             
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS THE MCV IN NORTHWEST            
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN WESTERN KANSAS                
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. MEANWHILE...THE COOL FRONT            
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.                  
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY BE WORKING AGAINST THE LARGE SCALE                     
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE WENT AHEAD AND                
YANKED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE FRONT                
SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THAT REGION. WE HAVE KEPT POPS                 
GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS JUST IN CASE WE SEE             
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS             
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.                                                        
COX                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTHEAST TODAY...FOCUSING BEST                     
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF                
THE TURNPIKE. LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE SCOURED OUT FROM                    
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND COLD               
FRONT. ONCE COLD FRONT PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.                     
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION TODAY AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL AGAIN...                                                               
A FEW CLUSTERED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ON MONDAY...ACROSS                 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE                   
MCV RESPONSIBLE IN GREAT PART FOR THIS HAD MOVED INTO EXTREME                   
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SYNOPTIC                     
SCALE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN                    
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...PUSHING A MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL NEED SOME TIME TO RECOVER                     
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING                 
AND THE REMAINING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD                      
FUEL RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND                    
JUST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH THE BETTER                 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WE                  
MAY STILL REALIZE SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH                   
THE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL                 
REMAIN CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST                  
KANSAS INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS                
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...FORECAST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE AREAL                
EXTENT OF THE QPF WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLOOD                    
WATCH. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN               
THE GRIDS/ZFP AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/WEATHER STORY.                      
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE                      
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GIVING THE AREA A BREAK FROM                  
THE RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE                 
RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RETURN                     
NORTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE                  
MODEST CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE LATEST MODELS                      
SUGGEST ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY                    
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                      
THE DEEPENING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND                    
EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH               
TO DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS                  
EASTERN KANSAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER FORECAST PERIODS INTO THE                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF SET:                                                                    
SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED TO SE KS WHERE MVFR CIGS BKN025CB LIKELY               
TIL ~10Z AT KCNU AROUND WHICH TIME CIGS MAY LOWER TO BKN015 WHERE               
BETTER ALIGNED WITH 850-MB MOISTURE CHANNEL. MVFR CIGS TO LINGER                
OVER KCNU TIL ~18Z WHEN INVERTED 850-MB RIDGE BUILDING S/SE OVER                
WRN PLAINS ENABLES RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.                
IN SC KS CHANCES FOR TSRA AT KICT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH                     
HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BKN015-025 LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH                 
~20Z UNTIL INFLUENCE OF AFORE-MENTIONED INVERTED 850-MB RIDGE HAS               
INCREASED. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SLATED FOR KRSL & KSLN TAF SITES                      
THROUGHOUT DURATION.                                                            
ES                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    89  66  84  66 /  20  40  10  30                                
HUTCHINSON      89  64  84  65 /  20  30  10  40                                
NEWTON          89  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  30                                
ELDORADO        89  66  84  64 /  20  40  10  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  67  85  66 /  30  50  10  20                                
RUSSELL         89  60  84  65 /  20  20  10  40                                
GREAT BEND      89  62  84  65 /  20  30  10  40                                
SALINA          90  63  85  65 /  20  20  10  40                                
MCPHERSON       89  64  84  65 /  20  30  10  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     87  66  84  65 /  30  50  10  10                                
CHANUTE         87  65  83  64 /  30  50  10  10                                
IOLA            88  64  83  63 /  30  40  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  84  64 /  30  50  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE              
AND INTENSITY WITH TIME TODAY. RUC SHOWS AN H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH              
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CURRENTLY WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWER             
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH THE            
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED           
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH LI/S -3 TO -4. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ARE NOT                   
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THINK THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL            
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8. WENT WITH 70 POPS ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS. MADE OTHER               
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST             
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.                                                      
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                                        
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z MODELS...WITH ONE EXCEPTION           
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WRF IS SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS TO BRING              
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DRY US OUT. CONSIDERING THAT ALMOST ALL OF           
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT FASTER MOVEMENT...AND ALL THREE SETS           
OF MOS SUPPORT A FASTER MOVEMENT...HAVE GONE WITH THE FASTER                    
SCENARIO.                                                                       
TODAY...VERY MOIST AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WSW FLOW.                     
WITH A BIT OF HEATING...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH CONVECTIVE                     
INHIBITION...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO              
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF                       
HEATING...WE MAY SEE A LULL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL           
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING FLOW           
OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME           
UPPER SUPPORT FROM A RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY             
TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE                
WATER WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE                 
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE SHEAR. HAVE SOME           
CONCERN ABOUT TRAINING CONVECTION AND A HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY...AND            
HAVE MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...              
SINCE THE GROUND IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET AND FLOOD GUIDANCE IS                  
HIGH...WILL NOT OVERLY EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT.           
PRECIP SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND                      
EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT...AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY.                                              
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS BEFORE           
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE METMOS BEING COOLER THAN THE                   
MAVMOS...HAVE USED A RANGE IN THE ZFP WITH THE UPPER END BEING NEAR             
THE GFS MOS.                                                                    
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                    
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED               
MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...                    
ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME AS IT GETS A BIT TOO FAST. A           
WEAK SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON                  
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND              
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN              
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE                
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...SO THUNDERSTORM              
AND SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY             
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY DOWN IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN              
ON MONDAY WILL RETURN TO BE NEAR 85...WHICH IS THE NORM FOR THIS TIME           
OF YEAR. JUST HAD TO TWEAK THE MOS A LITTLE. MOST TEMPS ARE WITHIN              
1-2 DEGREES OF THE EXTENDED MOS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
SW/V IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND IS AIDING IN                
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE               
REGION. VIS AND CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MVFR OR HIGHER SO FAR AND              
HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH VFR THROUGH 22Z...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR                
THUNDER AT TAF LOCATIONS. BEGINNING 22Z TO 00Z...WENT WITH MVFR                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH VIS AND CIGS WILL BE           
PERIODICALLY LOWER IN SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA AS A COLD FRONT AND SW/V               
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 9Z TO 16Z OR SO.                                           
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAL/WJM                                                            
LONG TERM....JJ                                                                 
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1121 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE              
AND INTENSITY WITH TIME TODAY. RUC SHOWS AN H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH              
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CURRENTLY WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWER             
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH THE            
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED           
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH LI/S -3 TO -4. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ARE NOT                   
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THINK THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL            
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8. WENT WITH 70 POPS ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS. MADE OTHER               
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED FORECAST             
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.                                                      
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                                        
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z MODELS...WITH ONE EXCEPTION           
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WRF IS SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS TO BRING              
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DRY US OUT. CONSIDERING THAT ALMOST ALL OF           
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT FASTER MOVEMENT...AND ALL THREE SETS           
OF MOS SUPPORT A FASTER MOVEMENT...HAVE GONE WITH THE FASTER                    
SCENARIO.                                                                       
TODAY...VERY MOIST AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WSW FLOW.                     
WITH A BIT OF HEATING...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH CONVECTIVE                     
INHIBITION...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO              
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF                       
HEATING...WE MAY SEE A LULL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL           
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING FLOW           
OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME           
UPPER SUPPORT FROM A RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY             
TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE                
WATER WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE                 
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE SHEAR. HAVE SOME           
CONCERN ABOUT TRAINING CONVECTION AND A HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY...AND            
HAVE MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...              
SINCE THE GROUND IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET AND FLOOD GUIDANCE IS                  
HIGH...WILL NOT OVERLY EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT.           
PRECIP SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND                      
EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT...AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY.                                              
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE OCCURS BEFORE           
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP. WITH THE METMOS BEING COOLER THAN THE                   
MAVMOS...HAVE USED A RANGE IN THE ZFP WITH THE UPPER END BEING NEAR             
THE GFS MOS.                                                                    
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                    
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED               
MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...                    
ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME AS IT GETS A BIT TOO FAST. A           
WEAK SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON                  
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND              
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN              
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE                
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...SO THUNDERSTORM              
AND SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY             
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY DOWN IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN              
ON MONDAY WILL RETURN TO BE NEAR 85...WHICH IS THE NORM FOR THIS TIME           
OF YEAR. JUST HAD TO TWEAK THE MOS A LITTLE. MOST TEMPS ARE WITHIN              
1-2 DEGREES OF THE EXTENDED MOS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
A FEW SHRA MOVING TO THE NE ACROSS ERN KY THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST            
PART... THE CIGS ARE ABOVE 12K AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY               
REACHING THE GROUND NEAR ANY TAF LOCATION. ISOLATED SHRA TO CONTINUE            
THIS MORNING WITH BETTER COVERAGE AND A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL           
BRING A PREDOMINATE SHRA GROUP INTO THE FCST AROUND NOON AND LIST               
VCTS UNTIL THE BETTER HEATING HAS A CHANCE TO BRING BETTER COVERAGE             
BY THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN SHOULD SETTLE DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR               
HEATING AND FOG SHOULD BECOME THE MAJOR WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE EARLY           
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAL/WJM                                                            
LONG TERM....JJ                                                                 
AVIATION...DUSTY                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
252 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY                
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY                   
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY                
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
RECENT RADAR DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM-                     
ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30KTS, SO HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS                  
WITH THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                           
WITH RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA AND RUC MODEL RUNS SHOWING                  
FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 25                 
KTS...EXPECT THE ENTIRE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO BE RAINFREE BY                     
ABOUT 5 PM.                                                                     
AS POSTFRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER AIR, EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE             
DECREASING. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NAM AND GFS MOS            
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                            
BLEND OF RECENT SREF (ENSEMBLE OF NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS) SHOWS                 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO              
VALLEY THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO                 
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONCUR WITH GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE             
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER             
TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD PROJECT A DEEP LAYER OR               
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING               
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN               
MOUNTAINS. SO FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY                   
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT (ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY) VALUES            
EVENTUALLY CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS             
INDICATED BY HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS MOS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY 21Z...WITH               
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN            
CONVECTION. MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS EAST FOLLOWING               
THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT INTO                        
THURSDAY...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.                   
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO NEXT MONDAY, EXPECT                 
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AA ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH              
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1039 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS PCPN TREND.                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF FOR JULY OVER             
SE CANADA...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY. 500MB             
HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO            
THE LONG TERM AVG FOR JULY. SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE WRN LAKES               
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING. SHRA ARE GRADUALLY WINDING             
DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SUPPORT NOW                   
SHIFTING E OF THE FCST AREA.                                                    
GIVEN THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND OF SHRA NOTED ON KMQT RADAR                    
IMAGERY...OPTED TO LINGER ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE ERN HALF OR SO OF THE            
FCST AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HRS PAST MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHRA ARE STILL               
ROTATING SE THRU NE MN...BUT BELIEVE THESE SHRA SHOULD DISSIPATE                
BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL.                   
OTHERWISE...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING S ALONG MANITOBA/ONTARIO                 
BORDER. EXPECT FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE THU MORNING...             
SO WILL CONFINE OVERNIGHT PCPN MENTION TO JUST WRN LAKE SUPERIOR                
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT)...                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPR LEVEL AND SFC LOWS OVR JAMES BAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT INTO UPR                
GREAT LAKES. H5 TEMPS TOWARD -20C YIELDING H9-H7 LAPSE RATES 7.0C/KM            
AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN 60S ALLOWED CU TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS              
THIS AFTN. COVERAGE IS MOST CONCENTRATED OVR SW HALF OF UPR MI. MOST            
SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING               
STRIKES OVR UPR MI THUS FAR. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SO FAR IS               
OVR NORTHERN MN CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
SHORTWAVE OVR SOUTHERN MANITOBA DRIFTS ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING AND              
EXITS BY MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER COVERAGE TO INCREASE                   
MARKEDLY AS ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE IS OUT OF STEP WITH PEAK HEATING               
AND MLCAPES OVR UPR MI BARELY REACHING 500J/KG. DRYING TREND                    
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND. ATTN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE              
OVR NORTHERN MANITOBA THAT DIVES INTO LK SUPERIOR REGION LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO THU. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD                   
COMBINE WITH HEATING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. MLCAPES USING A                  
DEWPOINT IN THE MID 40S RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF CAPE. LOW               
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...MOST LIKELY JUST                
GRAUPEL. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER THOUGH. POOL OF COOL AIR AT                    
H85/PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS MAXES INLAND TO THE MID 60S WHILE            
LK SUPERIOR BORDERING AREAS AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN             
OF THE NORTH WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60.                                         
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT)...                  
THU NIGHT...THE UKMET/GFS AND NAM WERE CONSISTENT WITH QVECTOR DIV              
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.            
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO              
EXIT OR DISSIPATE EARLY. AS THE SFC RDG AND LIGHT ACYC FLOW DEVELOPS            
EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID            
40S INLAND.                                                                     
FRI INTO SAT...MDLS WERE ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE                  
TIMING OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER-LIKE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT. FOCUS OF 700-300 QVECTOR                       
CONV WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF 300K-305 ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST              
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.               
THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA WITH A 50-55 KT 800 MB INFLOW AND GFS                   
SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR ZERO SUPPORTS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED             
TSRA. MOST OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY SAT WITH SOME                   
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. COMPROMISE TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF (850 MB                
TEMPS NEAR 8C-10C) COMPARED TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER GFS (850 MB             
TEMPS AROUND 5C) SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE 70S WITH COOLER READINGS IN            
AREAS DOWNWIND OF NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                 
SUN-WED...MDLS SHOW TRANSITION TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN.                
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH DETAILS OF POSITION/TIMING OF                
SHORTWAVES THAT WOULD LEAD TO PERIOD PCPN CHANCES. SHRA/TSRA                    
POTENTIAL REMAINS FROM SUN INTO EARLY MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WAA             
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SIMILAR TO THE FRI NIGHT PCPN SCENARIO. SIGNIFICANT           
UNCERTAINTY BY TUE/WED REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE               
PATTERN...PER ECMWF AND GFS. SO...PCPN CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT              
GIVEN CONTINUED ACTIVE WNW OR NW FLOW THROUGH THE REGION.                       
HOWEVER...TEMPS GENERALLY SHOULD CLIMB CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
ONGOING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE KSAW VCNTY WILL WIND DOWN OVER               
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA AND                      
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES WITH SETTING SUN. AT KCMX...SHRA CROSSING WRN            
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE DISSIPATING...BUT A SHRA MAY STILL SURVIVE AND                
PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT HR. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS             
WILL THEN BE THE RULE FOR THE NIGHT AT KCMX/KSAW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE           
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT             
SHRA ACROSS THE AREA THU...BEGINNING MID MORNING. EXPECT HIGH RANGE             
MVFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE                
AREA LATER IN THE AFTN...RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...PERSIST AS A HIGH PRES                  
CENTER SLIDES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY             
AND LOW OVR JAMES BAY SLOWLY EDGES TO THE NORTH. A NEW AREA OF LOW              
PRESSURE...LOOKING KIND OF STRONG AT THIS POINT...DIVES INTO LK                 
SUPERIOR REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH              
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND COULD REACH 25-30 KT BEFORE VEERING BACK              
TO THE PREVAILING W/NW DIRECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVR THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                       
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLA                                                         
LONG TERM..JLB                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
155 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SYNOPSIS                                                                        
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND BROAD            
TROUGHING COVERING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT             
LAKES. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN FOR MANY DAYS TO COME...WITH MORE               
AMPLIFICATION THAN WHAT IS PRESENT NOW. WITHIN THE BROAD                        
TROUGH...THERE ARE A FEW SHRTWVS OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.             
THE FIRST AND MOST IMPRESSIVE...WHICH HAS HELPED BRING THE WINDY                
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS TO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE                       
NIGHT...STRETCHES FROM JUST NE OF WAWA BACK INTO NW WI. WINDS HAVE              
GUSTED AS HIGH AS 45 KT AT STANNARD ROCK AND 47 KT ON THE BREAKWALL             
IN GRAND MARAIS BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE SHRTWV. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS BEEN INVADING THE CWA                      
ALOFT...NOTED BY NW WINDS ADVECTING IN 850MB TEMPS OF +7C AT INL AND            
+3C NEAR WINNIPEG PER 00Z RAOBS. THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...WINDY                   
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 50S HAS KEPT                
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH MORE THAN THE LOW 50S. ANOTHER              
SHRTWV WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. 500MB TEMP                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV WAS AROUND -22C PER 00Z RAOB AT THE PAS             
(SOUNDING WAS ALSO HAD SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SFC                
BASED CAPE OF 437 J/KG). THE THIRD SHRTWV OF INTEREST...ACTUALLY AN             
UPPER LOW...IS OVER SW HUDSON BAY.                                              
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL TODAY.                         
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD THIS MORNING             
INTO NE ONTARIO...ALLOWING FOR A VERY WEAK RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE               
CWA AROUND 18Z. THUS...ANY SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA SHOULD END            
FAIRLY QUICKLY...PROBABLY BY 14Z. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND 850MB                
TEMPS BETWEEN 5 AND 7C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO RISE SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S. WNW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL            
ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S.            
NEXT CONCERN IS THE SHRTWV ON THE NW END OF LAKE WINNIPEG.                      
NAM/GFS/UKMET PROG THIS SHRTWV TO ENTER THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 00Z.            
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO               
AROUND -22C) COMBINED WITH THE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F AND RELATIVELY              
WARM SURFACE TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO            
1000 J/KG INLAND. DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE               
FROM A JET MOVING THROUGH MN AND WI SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER                 
STORMS. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 25 KNOTS...NOT TOO                
IMPRESSIVE...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH FREEZING             
LEVELS OF 8000-8500 KT MAY YIELD SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE                
HAIL. GIVEN THESE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION                 
SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA UNDER A 5               
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.              
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE AS              
THE UPPER LOW/SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY DROPS DOWN INTO THE              
MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z (PER NAM/GFS/UKMET).              
SINCE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT MOST            
OF IT TO DIMINISH WHILE SLIDING E IN THE EVENING. A BREAK IN THE                
PCPN OVER THE CWA APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04-07Z. AFTER 07Z...DPVA             
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE HUDSON BAY SHRTWV MAY BRING             
SOME -SHRA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...            
THIS IS ONLY SHOWN BY THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW. SINCE THE UKMET AND            
GFS DO NOT SHOW THE PCPN...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS THERE AT               
20. CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP BRIEFLY DURING THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME...BUT              
WITH PLENTY OF WIND STILL GOING AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING STEADY NEAR             
50...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 50.                            
THURSDAY...FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AT 12Z             
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. MODEL RH FIELDS               
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS SHRTWV...                
WHICH LIKELY MEANS A LOT OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH                
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 4-5C AND A BREEZY WEST TO NW WIND WILL LIKELY            
RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST HIGH                
TEMPERATURE AT THE OFFICE RECORD MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN (59 IN 1986).            
IN ADDITION...DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV TROUGH...SOME UPPER JET FORCING              
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY              
OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE MAY ALSO HELP A FEW AREAS TO GENERATE MORE QPF.             
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT AND THE STRENGTH...HAVE                
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WITH                  
UPSLOPE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. WAS NEARLY TEMPTED TO REMOVE THE                  
THUNDER CHANCES...BUT SOUNDINGS IN THE INTERIOR FOR A 57 TEMP AND 50            
DEWPOINT YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. THUS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE             
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW...HAVE                 
ACTUALLY STARTED THE THUNDER CHANCE A LITTLE EARLIER. ALTHOUGH                  
FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 7000 FT...THE VERY LOW CAPE VALUES AND               
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP HAIL TO NO LARGER THAN                  
GRAUPEL SIZE. SINCE MOST OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE                
WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z...HAVE LOWERED POPS AFTER 21Z THERE.                        
THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH FROM THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO            
SE ONTARIO BY 12Z FRI...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT IN THE                   
EVENING. HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MODELS             
SHOW DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS PRODUCE PCPN WITH IT...BUT DO               
SHOW AN AREA OF 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. SINCE THE AIRMASS               
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST...THIS CONVERGENCE COULD BE                 
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN BOTH FOR THE DEPARTING EVENING PCPN AND               
WITH THIS NEXT SHRTWV CROSSING. ONE INTERESTING SIDE NOTE IS THAT               
THE MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF 2-4C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING WITH THIS                
SHRTWV. THESE READINGS ARE NOT TOO UNSTABLE FOR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT             
COULD BE ENOUGH ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR              
EVEN RAIN SHOWERS THERE (NORTHERN BUOY TEMP AT 16C). IN                         
ADDITION...IF THE AIR PROGGED TO COME ACROSS ENDS UP JUST A BIT                 
COLDER...SOME WATERSPOUTS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ON LAKE                
MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP...THOUGH THESE                  
CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP LATE IN THE WEST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A TEMP                
FALL THERE.                                                                     
FRI INTO SAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP ABOUT THE NEXT                
SHRTWV TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NEXT             
SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SW YUKON FROM THE GULF OF                   
ALASKA...AND THEN IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE                  
WESTERN RIDGE. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES WILL                    
DETERMINE THE SPEED AND HOW FAR WEST THE SHRTWV GOES. AT 00Z                    
SAT...THE GFS SHOWS IT UP IN NE MANITOBA WHEREAS THE UKMET HAS IT               
NEAR PICKLE LAKE. 00Z ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE. ALL SOLUTIONS...                   
HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN AT LEAST               
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH THEN MOVES              
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR            
FRI AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER PROGRESSION SEEN IN THE                 
MODELS. LEFT GOING CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY TOO AS COLD FRONT                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON            
FRI THAN THU AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 6-8C BY 18Z FRI. SAT IS TRICKY              
AND DEPENDS A LOT ON THE TIMING OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH. IF THE GFS IS             
CORRECT...CURRENT HIGHS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED. HOWEVER...THE UKMET            
WOULD SUGGEST THE OTHER WAY AROUND. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS               
ALONE UNTIL CERTAINTY CAN BE GAINED ON THIS PERIOD.                             
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SAT. DOES LOOK LIKE THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL               
START BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING SOME OF THE HEAT                 
OCCURRING OVER THE WEST TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH               
HEAT BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MCS                  
ACTIVITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY              
OF NORTHERN WI...AND WITH PLENTY OF HEAT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE               
FRONT...WE COULD BE IN FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SCT-BKN CUMULUS FILLING IN AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.             
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND CONTINUED HEATING MAY SET OFF SHOWERS AND A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN. BEST CHANCE FARTHER INLAND AWAY FM LK              
SUPERIOR...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT PCPN MAY EVEN STAY SOUTH             
OF KSAW. THUS...KEPT KCMX DRY AND KSAW WITH A MENTION OF SOME                   
SHOWERS BUT ONLY A CB. SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE THUNDER...                  
EXPECTED AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AT BOTH SITES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE             
AND SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST)...                                
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WEAKEN             
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO LIFT NORTHEAST                
INTO JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH                
PRES CENTER SLIDES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO THE                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDING OVER WESTERN               
MANITOBA ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY             
AFTERNOON. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVE EAST              
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE            
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. A HIGH                 
CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN WEST TO               
NORTHWEST WINDS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
758 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND BROAD            
TROUGHING COVERING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT             
LAKES. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN FOR MANY DAYS TO COME...WITH MORE               
AMPLIFICATION THAN WHAT IS PRESENT NOW. WITHIN THE BROAD                        
TROUGH...THERE ARE A FEW SHRTWVS OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.             
THE FIRST AND MOST IMPRESSIVE...WHICH HAS HELPED BRING THE WINDY                
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS TO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE                       
NIGHT...STRETCHES FROM JUST NE OF WAWA BACK INTO NW WI. WINDS HAVE              
GUSTED AS HIGH AS 45 KT AT STANNARD ROCK AND 47 KT ON THE BREAKWALL             
IN GRAND MARAIS BEHIND A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE SHRTWV. MUCH COOLER AIR HAS BEEN INVADING THE CWA                      
ALOFT...NOTED BY NW WINDS ADVECTING IN 850MB TEMPS OF +7C AT INL AND            
+3C NEAR WINNIPEG PER 00Z RAOBS. THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...WINDY                   
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW 50S HAS KEPT                
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH MORE THAN THE LOW 50S. ANOTHER              
SHRTWV WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. 500MB TEMP                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV WAS AROUND -22C PER 00Z RAOB AT THE PAS             
(SOUNDING WAS ALSO HAD SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SFC                
BASED CAPE OF 437 J/KG). THE THIRD SHRTWV OF INTEREST...ACTUALLY AN             
UPPER LOW...IS OVER SW HUDSON BAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL TODAY.                         
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER THE CWA WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD THIS MORNING             
INTO NE ONTARIO...ALLOWING FOR A VERY WEAK RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE               
CWA AROUND 18Z. THUS...ANY SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA SHOULD END            
FAIRLY QUICKLY...PROBABLY BY 14Z. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND 850MB                
TEMPS BETWEEN 5 AND 7C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO RISE SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S. WNW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL            
ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S.            
NEXT CONCERN IS THE SHRTWV ON THE NW END OF LAKE WINNIPEG.                      
NAM/GFS/UKMET PROG THIS SHRTWV TO ENTER THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 00Z.            
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO               
AROUND -22C) COMBINED WITH THE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F AND RELATIVELY              
WARM SURFACE TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO            
1000 J/KG INLAND. DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE               
FROM A JET MOVING THROUGH MN AND WI SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER                 
STORMS. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 25 KNOTS...NOT TOO                
IMPRESSIVE...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH FREEZING             
LEVELS OF 8000-8500 KT MAY YIELD SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE                
HAIL. GIVEN THESE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION                 
SMALL HAIL IN THE GRIDS. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA UNDER A 5               
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.              
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE AS              
THE UPPER LOW/SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY DROPS DOWN INTO THE              
MN ARROWHEAD/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z (PER NAM/GFS/UKMET).              
SINCE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TODAY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT MOST            
OF IT TO DIMINISH WHILE SLIDING E IN THE EVENING. A BREAK IN THE                
PCPN OVER THE CWA APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04-07Z. AFTER 07Z...DPVA             
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE HUDSON BAY SHRTWV MAY BRING             
SOME -SHRA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...            
THIS IS ONLY SHOWN BY THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW. SINCE THE UKMET AND            
GFS DO NOT SHOW THE PCPN...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS THERE AT               
20. CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP BRIEFLY DURING THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME...BUT              
WITH PLENTY OF WIND STILL GOING AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING STEADY NEAR             
50...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH BELOW 50.                            
THURSDAY...FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AT 12Z             
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. MODEL RH FIELDS               
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS SHRTWV...                
WHICH LIKELY MEANS A LOT OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH                
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 4-5C AND A BREEZY WEST TO NW WIND WILL LIKELY            
RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST HIGH                
TEMPERATURE AT THE OFFICE RECORD MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN (59 IN 1986).            
IN ADDITION...DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV TROUGH...SOME UPPER JET FORCING              
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY              
OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE MAY ALSO HELP A FEW AREAS TO GENERATE MORE QPF.             
GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT AND THE STRENGTH...HAVE                
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS WITH                  
UPSLOPE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. WAS NEARLY TEMPTED TO REMOVE THE                  
THUNDER CHANCES...BUT SOUNDINGS IN THE INTERIOR FOR A 57 TEMP AND 50            
DEWPOINT YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. THUS...THE SLIGHT CHANCE             
OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW...HAVE                 
ACTUALLY STARTED THE THUNDER CHANCE A LITTLE EARLIER. ALTHOUGH                  
FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 7000 FT...THE VERY LOW CAPE VALUES AND               
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP HAIL TO NO LARGER THAN                  
GRAUPEL SIZE. SINCE MOST OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE                
WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z...HAVE LOWERED POPS AFTER 21Z THERE.                        
THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH FROM THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO            
SE ONTARIO BY 12Z FRI...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT IN THE                   
EVENING. HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MODELS             
SHOW DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS PRODUCE PCPN WITH IT...BUT DO               
SHOW AN AREA OF 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. SINCE THE AIRMASS               
REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST...THIS CONVERGENCE COULD BE                 
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN BOTH FOR THE DEPARTING EVENING PCPN AND               
WITH THIS NEXT SHRTWV CROSSING. ONE INTERESTING SIDE NOTE IS THAT               
THE MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF 2-4C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING WITH THIS                
SHRTWV. THESE READINGS ARE NOT TOO UNSTABLE FOR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT             
COULD BE ENOUGH ON LAKE MICHIGAN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR              
EVEN RAIN SHOWERS THERE (NORTHERN BUOY TEMP AT 16C). IN                         
ADDITION...IF THE AIR PROGGED TO COME ACROSS ENDS UP JUST A BIT                 
COLDER...SOME WATERSPOUTS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ON LAKE                
MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP...THOUGH THESE                  
CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP LATE IN THE WEST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A TEMP                
FALL THERE.                                                                     
FRI INTO SAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP ABOUT THE NEXT                
SHRTWV TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NEXT             
SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SW YUKON FROM THE GULF OF                   
ALASKA...AND THEN IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE                  
WESTERN RIDGE. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES WILL                    
DETERMINE THE SPEED AND HOW FAR WEST THE SHRTWV GOES. AT 00Z                    
SAT...THE GFS SHOWS IT UP IN NE MANITOBA WHEREAS THE UKMET HAS IT               
NEAR PICKLE LAKE. 00Z ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE. ALL SOLUTIONS...                   
HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN AT LEAST               
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH THEN MOVES              
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR            
FRI AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER PROGRESSION SEEN IN THE                 
MODELS. LEFT GOING CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY TOO AS COLD FRONT                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON            
FRI THAN THU AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 6-8C BY 18Z FRI. SAT IS TRICKY              
AND DEPENDS A LOT ON THE TIMING OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH. IF THE GFS IS             
CORRECT...CURRENT HIGHS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED. HOWEVER...THE UKMET            
WOULD SUGGEST THE OTHER WAY AROUND. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS               
ALONE UNTIL CERTAINTY CAN BE GAINED ON THIS PERIOD.                             
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SAT. DOES LOOK LIKE THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL               
START BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING SOME OF THE HEAT                 
OCCURRING OVER THE WEST TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH               
HEAT BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MCS                  
ACTIVITY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY              
OF NORTHERN WI...AND WITH PLENTY OF HEAT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE               
FRONT...WE COULD BE IN FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS             
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO WHICH WILL TRY TO WORK ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST THEM FOR KCMX. KSAW WILL              
HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING MVFR CIGS AS WEST WIND DOWNSLOPE AND WILL            
KEEP CIGS VFR THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 06Z            
THU AT KCMX. CIGS WILL GO BACK TO VFR LATER TODAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST)...                                
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WEAKEN             
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO LIFT NORTHEAST                
INTO JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH                
PRES CENTER SLIDES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO THE                
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDING OVER WESTERN               
MANITOBA ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY             
AFTERNOON. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVE EAST              
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE            
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. A HIGH                 
CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN WEST TO               
NORTHWEST WINDS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
120 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS                                                                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BETWEEN KINL AND CYQT(THUNDER BAY). AT THE                  
SFC(20Z)...A 995 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN                 
KCMX/CYQT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SOUTH FROM TO NEAR KIMT. A              
BKN LINE OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUED TO SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD               
THROUGH THE ERN CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. A STRONG             
WSW-ENE ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT                     
SUPPORTED WRLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-48 KT RANGE OVER W UPPER MI WITH            
THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.               
WINDS FARTHER S OVER NW WI FROM KHYR/KLNL/KRHI/KEGV HAD GUSTS MAINLY            
IN THE 30-38KT RANGE.                                                           
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TSRA TRENDS ALONG WITH WINDS.                            
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF TSRA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA             
BY 00Z. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/-SHRA CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL             
START TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE            
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NW. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY PRES                
RISE/FALL ISALLOBARIC WIND MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST BY LATE               
THIS EVENING. WITH 925 WINDS INTO THE 50-55 KT RANGE AND CONTINUED              
CAA...EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT             
RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 50 KT OVER THE                  
KEWEENAW. SO...A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW             
COUNTIES AND A WIND ADVY FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES.                    
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BUT GUST              
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 40 KT. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE            
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW PRES LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE                 
WINDS TO SLACKEN OFF.                                                           
SOME LEFTOVER -SHRA OVER THE NE CWA IN THE MORNING SHOULD END BY                
LATE MORNING...PER NAM/HIGH RES WRF. HOWEVER...ANOTHER                          
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CORNER OF MANITOBA...WILL MOVE IN             
BY AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AS A -22C 500             
MB COLD POOL MOVES IN ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV NEAR THE LEFT EXIT             
OF THE 300 MB JET SHOULD SUPPORT SCT INLAND SHRA/TSRA.                          
LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                       
KEEPING WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH UPPER LOW IN VCNTY. DESPITE              
CHILLY H85 TEMPS FOR JULY...STEEP LAPSE RATES (THANKS TO H5 TEMPS               
BLO -15C) ON PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVE AND            
POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAXIMIZED            
DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. COUPLE OF AGREED UPON SHORTWAVE MAY                
MAXIMIZE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THU AFTN AND AGAIN SAT. TEMPS REMAIN             
BLO NORMAL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL THERMAL TROUGH. HPC             
SHOWING WARMER TEMPS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD REGION LATE IN              
THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD RISE TOWARD NORMAL BUT NOT SURE IF WARM                
FRONT WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH...SO WILL NOT GO TOO WARM AT                
THIS POINT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                         
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BRING GUSTY               
WINDS BEHIND IT AT BOTH SITES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR            
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR A WHILE. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS             
IN NORTHERN MN THAT WILL TRY TO WORK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.              
THEREFORE...I WILL FORECAST THEM FOR KCMX. KSAW WILL HAVE A HARDER              
TIME GETTING MVFR CIGS AS WEST WIND DOWNSLOPE AND WILL KEEP CIGS VFR            
THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 06Z THU AT KCMX.             
CIGS WILL GO BACK TO VFR LATER TODAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WRLY GALES WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST.              
DECENT MIXING WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE 10-14 FT RANGE OVER               
THE CNTRL AND EAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE WINDS AND                
WAVES WILL SLACKEN/SUBSIDE WED AS THE LOW MOVES TO JAMES BAY.                   
HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY STIFF W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING MIZ001-003 TO 9 AM EDT WED.                                   
WIND ADVISORY MIZ002-009 TO 9 AM EDT WED.                                       
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLB                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1205 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED            
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MOVED TO NEAR KINL. STRONG DRYING WAS                   
EVIDENT FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE                        
SFC(15Z)...A 997 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE MN WITH A COLD FRONT            
EXTENDING SE INTO NW WI NEAR KHYR. 4-6 MB PRES FALLS WERE OBSERVED              
AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RADAR                
INDICATED SHRA ALONG/AHEAD PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO W UPPER MI.                    
MOISTURE WAS RETURNING QUICKLY TO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE              
MID 60S OVER THE CWA. VIS LOOP SHOWED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVER THE              
AREA BUT WITH AN AREA OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE TROF.                            
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING AT LEAST TO AROUND 80F...MLCAPE VALUES IN THE               
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF              
THE TROF AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID              
LEVEL TROF SHOULD HELP TRIGGER A BKN LINE OF TSTMS. VERY STRONG                 
SHEAR WITH 0-6KM VALUES IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME             
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES TO 150 M2/S2 WITH                 
BACKER SRLY WINDS...PER SPC...COULD SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.                
WITH FAST CELL MOVEMENT AND STRONG KINEMATICS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL             
BE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A MORE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS. SOME LARGE             
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLD SUPERCELLS.                                
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 424 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                            
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS IS BEGINNING TO              
SHOW THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS WEEK...WITH A BROAD TROUGH NOW OVER            
CENTRAL CANADA AND RIDGING BUILDING UP THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA.                
WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...A VERY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV IS DIGGING                   
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPING              
IN SW MANITOBA. WITHIN THE SHRTWV...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING OCCURRED                
LAST EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INDICATIVE OF ITS                   
STRENGTH. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...CONVECTION WHICH                    
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MONTANA MON AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PERSIST               
NEAR THE MN/ND/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...STRONG              
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND A SOUTHERLY 35-40 KT JET AT 850MB                 
CONTINUING TO DRIVE MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM NEBRASKA                
NORTHWARD (PER RUC ANALYSIS) ARE ALL HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE                    
CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERLY JET IS ALSO BRINGING WARM AIR BACK                    
NORTHWARD INTO MN AND WI...WITH 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS AROUND 13C AT               
INL COMPARED TO ITS 00Z OB REPORTING 11C. THE WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO            
DEVELOPING RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN... AND THIS RIDGING IS                 
HELPING TO SUPPRESS A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE              
ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NE THROUGH NE WISCONSIN...WHICH APPEAR              
TO BE RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE              
OF 1000 MB WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAND FORKS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING             
SW TO PIERRE. BEST PRESSURE FALLS...AROUND 1MB/HR ARE LOCATED IN NW             
MN WHILE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES...AROUND 2 MB/HR ARE LOCATED IN SE             
WYOMING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE RAPID PRESSURE               
RISES HAVE RESULTED IN BREEZY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BIS            
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 45 KNOTS AT 3000 FT.                                 
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SEVERE CHANCES TODAY...WINDS TONIGHT...AND            
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL TOMORROW.                                                  
TODAY...DIGGING SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO NORTH            
CENTRAL MN BY 18Z AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. AS THE TROUGH               
MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND LIFT                  
NE...REACHING FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WITH A 997MB                    
PRESSURE. HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH (100-110 M            
AT 500MB AT CMX FROM 12Z TO 00Z)...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH NOTED BY A SW 30-35KT 850MB JET BRINGING MOISTURE UP INTO THE            
AREA FROM MN AND WI...AND ANY DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING INSTABILITY            
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN             
MN AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE            
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SINCE DURING THE AFTERNOON THE             
PV ANOMALY/SHRTWV BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH. THEREFORE FOR THE                   
PURPOSE OF THE POP GRIDS...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY WORDING              
FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P...BUT RAISE POPS TO 100 OVER THE KEWEENAW TO               
ISLE ROYALE WHERE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS EXIST. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY            
DEVELOPS WILL DETERMINE OUR SEVERE CHANCES. BLOWOFF FROM THE MCS TO             
OUR WEST MAY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND INTO WI THROUGH THE                     
DAY...PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS            
PRIOR TO THE MCS ARRIVAL ARE AROUND 80...WHICH WE MAY GET CLOSE TO              
IN THE CENTRAL U.P. WHERE PARTIAL SUNSHINE OCCURS. CONDITIONS BECOME            
MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...              
RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES              
AROUND 50 KT...SEVERE STORMS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SPC 06Z DAY 1               
OUTLOOK MAINTAINS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO              
MAINTAIN THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE GRIDS/HWO.                         
TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT UP                 
TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY 12Z. WHILE THE TROUGH IS MOVING NE...A TAILING             
SHRTWV FROM THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...                   
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS SHRTWV APPEARS TO             
BE PART OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND LOOKING AT AN 850MB TEMP                
PLOT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A TROWAL WITH THE SHRTWV. THE                   
GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS AND THE REGIONAL CANADIAN HIT THIS SHRTWV              
PRETTY HARD WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BETWEEN 0.20 (GFS) TO            
0.50 INCH (CANADIAN). LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT AREA            
IS DEVELOPING NICELY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NE NORTH DAKOTA...             
AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT SOME UPSLOPE SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN STRONG 950MB            
WINDS...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE KEWEENAW AREA              
AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS. REGARDING WINDS...WIND CORE BEING                    
OBSERVED RIGHT NOW AT BISMARCK IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE                    
KEWEENAW THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN A COLD               
ADVECTION PROFILE WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 5C BY 12Z WED...AND A             
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISALLOBARIC FORCING IF THE WIND CAN GO 330                 
BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT AND WIND CORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR            
THE KEWEENAW. THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ALGER AND            
LUCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SHORELINE...AS THE SHRTWV AND SECONDARY COLD            
FRONT CROSS. CLOUDS AND BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS                
FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S.                                                     
WED...THE CWA MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IN-BETWEEN AS            
THE TAILING SHRTWV EXITS UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING             
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MANITOBA. MADE AN ATTEMPT IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT            
FOR THIS BREAK. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE UKMET/GFS AND LOCAL                  
WRF-ARW RUNS HERE BRING THE MANITOBA SHRTWV INTO THE FAR WESTERN                
U.P. AROUND 00Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH STEEP                
LAPSE RATES (850-500MB BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM) AND DAYTIME                          
HEATING...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR IMT AT 18Z MODIFIED FOR 70              
TEMP AND 49 DEWPOINT YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WHICH COULD               
INCREASE SOME BY 21Z AS THE SHRTWV APPROACHES. GIVEN THAT 0-6KM                 
SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 35 KNOTS AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE BETWEEN                
8000-8500 FT...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE SMALL              
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WILL MENTION THE HAIL POSSIBILITY IN THE             
HWO. OTHERWISE...COOLER READINGS EXPECTED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF                   
5-7C...WHICH WITH THE BREEZY NW WINDS MAY NOT ALLOW LAKE SHORE                  
LOCATIONS TO REACH 60. WARMEST READINGS IN THE LOW 70S WILL OCCUR               
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE.                     
WED NIGHT AND THU...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WILL MOVE                  
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...HAVE                
DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THE GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF                
SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LARGE TROUGH FROM            
HUDSON BAY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME            
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECISE LOCATION (CROSSING THE CWA NW/SE OR                
CROSSING THE WAWA ONTARIO AREA NW/SE). IN ANY EVENT...GIVEN THE                 
PROXIMITY OF IT AND ANY DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN THE                    
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE DETAILS            
ARE IRONED OUT ON THIS SHRTWV...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE OF MENTION OF               
HAIL TOO GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL            
KEEP TEMPS UP WED NIGHT...SO WARMED A FEW LOCATIONS (PARTICULARLY               
INLAND). FOR THU...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR OR MAYBE               
JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED...SO HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO              
WED. AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                
SHORELINE.                                                                      
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THUS SHRTWV SHOULD                  
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER                
THAT...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT INTO FRIDAY AS THE                           
UKMET/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATE SURFACE RIDGING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGING IS A RESULT OF A                   
STRONGER SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE E SIDE OF THE BIG              
WESTERN RIDGE. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...AND               
DECENT WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND               
INSERTED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI NIGHT. IN                
ADDITION...WARMED READINGS UP FOR FRI UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING AND ON             
FRI NIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SAT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THE APPROACH              
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING MID            
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS              
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEIGS AND EVEN                
LOWER VIS FROM TIME TO TIME.  HAVE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
17-19Z AT CMX...AND 18-21Z AT SAW.  TIMING STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.             
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO COME TO THE SFC WITH ANY                  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IF A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE            
AREA TUE MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE                          
AFTERNOON...WIND WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45             
KT POSSIBLE AT KCMX THROUGH THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST)...                                
HIGH PRES OF 29.9 INCHES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE LAKE                 
HURON WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW               
PRES SYSTEM OF 29.6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME                  
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO JAMES BAY WED MORNING. GALE WARNINGS                 
REMAIN POSTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS 35 KT            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW...CAUSING WAVES TO               
INCREASE TO THE 7 TO 11 FT RANGE TONIGHT WEST HALF...INTO WED EAST              
HALF.                                                                           
A LARGE 30.1 INCH HIGH WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS                
STATES THU AND SLIDE E INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRI. YET ANOTHER              
HIGH PRES OF 30.1 INCHES OVER WESTERN MANITOBA THU EVENING WILL MOVE            
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI AFTERNOON. A WEAK 29.6 INCH LOW               
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY MIZ001-003 FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WED.            
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS IS BEGINNING TO              
SHOW THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS WEEK...WITH A BROAD TROUGH NOW OVER            
CENTRAL CANADA AND RIDGING BUILDING UP THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA.                
WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...A VERY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV IS DIGGING                   
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPING              
IN SW MANITOBA. WITHIN THE SHRTWV...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING OCCURRED                
LAST EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INDICATIVE OF ITS                   
STRENGTH. DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...CONVECTION WHICH                    
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MONTANA MON AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PERSIST               
NEAR THE MN/ND/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...STRONG              
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND A SOUTHERLY 35-40 KT JET AT 850MB                 
CONTINUING TO DRIVE MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM NEBRASKA                
NORTHWARD (PER RUC ANALYSIS) ARE ALL HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE                    
CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERLY JET IS ALSO BRINGING WARM AIR BACK                    
NORTHWARD INTO MN AND WI...WITH 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS AROUND 13C AT               
INL COMPARED TO ITS 00Z OB REPORTING 11C. THE WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO            
DEVELOPING RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN... AND THIS RIDGING IS                 
HELPING TO SUPPRESS A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE              
ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NE THROUGH NE WISCONSIN...WHICH APPEAR              
TO BE RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE              
OF 1000 MB WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAND FORKS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING             
SW TO PIERRE. BEST PRESSURE FALLS...AROUND 1MB/HR ARE LOCATED IN NW             
MN WHILE THE BEST PRESSURE RISES...AROUND 2 MB/HR ARE LOCATED IN SE             
WYOMING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE RAPID PRESSURE               
RISES HAVE RESULTED IN BREEZY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BIS            
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 45 KNOTS AT 3000 FT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SEVERE CHANCES TODAY...WINDS TONIGHT...AND            
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL TOMORROW.                                                  
TODAY...DIGGING SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO NORTH            
CENTRAL MN BY 18Z AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. AS THE TROUGH               
MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND LIFT                  
NE...REACHING FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WITH A 997MB                    
PRESSURE. HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH (100-110 M            
AT 500MB AT CMX FROM 12Z TO 00Z)...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH NOTED BY A SW 30-35KT 850MB JET BRINGING MOISTURE UP INTO THE            
AREA FROM MN AND WI...AND ANY DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING INSTABILITY            
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN             
MN AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE            
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SINCE DURING THE AFTERNOON THE             
PV ANOMALY/SHRTWV BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH. THEREFORE FOR THE                   
PURPOSE OF THE POP GRIDS...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN LIKELY WORDING              
FOR THE SOUTHERN U.P...BUT RAISE POPS TO 100 OVER THE KEWEENAW TO               
ISLE ROYALE WHERE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS EXIST. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY            
DEVELOPS WILL DETERMINE OUR SEVERE CHANCES. BLOWOFF FROM THE MCS TO             
OUR WEST MAY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND INTO WI THROUGH THE                     
DAY...PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS            
PRIOR TO THE MCS ARRIVAL ARE AROUND 80...WHICH WE MAY GET CLOSE TO              
IN THE CENTRAL U.P. WHERE PARTIAL SUNSHINE OCCURS. CONDITIONS BECOME            
MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...              
RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES              
AROUND 50 KT...SEVERE STORMS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SPC 06Z DAY 1               
OUTLOOK MAINTAINS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO              
MAINTAIN THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL WORDING IN THE GRIDS/HWO.                         
TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT UP                 
TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY 12Z. WHILE THE TROUGH IS MOVING NE...A TAILING             
SHRTWV FROM THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...                   
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS SHRTWV APPEARS TO             
BE PART OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND LOOKING AT AN 850MB TEMP                
PLOT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A TROWAL WITH THE SHRTWV. THE                   
GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS AND THE REGIONAL CANADIAN HIT THIS SHRTWV              
PRETTY HARD WITH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BETWEEN 0.20 (GFS) TO            
0.50 INCH (CANADIAN). LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT AREA            
IS DEVELOPING NICELY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NE NORTH DAKOTA...             
AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT SOME UPSLOPE SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN STRONG 950MB            
WINDS...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE KEWEENAW AREA              
AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS. REGARDING WINDS...WIND CORE BEING                    
OBSERVED RIGHT NOW AT BISMARCK IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE                    
KEWEENAW THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN A COLD               
ADVECTION PROFILE WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO 5C BY 12Z WED...AND A             
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISALLOBARIC FORCING IF THE WIND CAN GO 330                 
BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT AND WIND CORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR            
THE KEWEENAW. THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ALGER AND            
LUCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SHORELINE...AS THE SHRTWV AND SECONDARY COLD            
FRONT CROSS. CLOUDS AND BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS                
FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S.                                                     
WED...THE CWA MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IN-BETWEEN AS            
THE TAILING SHRTWV EXITS UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING             
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MANITOBA. MADE AN ATTEMPT IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT            
FOR THIS BREAK. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE UKMET/GFS AND LOCAL                  
WRF-ARW RUNS HERE BRING THE MANITOBA SHRTWV INTO THE FAR WESTERN                
U.P. AROUND 00Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...COMBINED WITH STEEP                
LAPSE RATES (850-500MB BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM) AND DAYTIME                          
HEATING...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR IMT AT 18Z MODIFIED FOR 70              
TEMP AND 49 DEWPOINT YIELDS AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WHICH COULD               
INCREASE SOME BY 21Z AS THE SHRTWV APPROACHES. GIVEN THAT 0-6KM                 
SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 35 KNOTS AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE BETWEEN                
8000-8500 FT...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE SMALL              
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WILL MENTION THE HAIL POSSIBILITY IN THE             
HWO. OTHERWISE...COOLER READINGS EXPECTED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF                   
5-7C...WHICH WITH THE BREEZY NW WINDS MAY NOT ALLOW LAKE SHORE                  
LOCATIONS TO REACH 60. WARMEST READINGS IN THE LOW 70S WILL OCCUR               
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE.                     
WED NIGHT AND THU...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WILL MOVE                  
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...HAVE                
DECIDED TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THE GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF                
SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LARGE TROUGH FROM            
HUDSON BAY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THU...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME            
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECISE LOCATION (CROSSING THE CWA NW/SE OR                
CROSSING THE WAWA ONTARIO AREA NW/SE). IN ANY EVENT...GIVEN THE                 
PROXIMITY OF IT AND ANY DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN THE                    
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE DETAILS            
ARE IRONED OUT ON THIS SHRTWV...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE OF MENTION OF               
HAIL TOO GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL            
KEEP TEMPS UP WED NIGHT...SO WARMED A FEW LOCATIONS (PARTICULARLY               
INLAND). FOR THU...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR OR MAYBE               
JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED...SO HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO              
WED. AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN                
SHORELINE.                                                                      
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THUS SHRTWV SHOULD                  
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER                
THAT...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT INTO FRIDAY AS THE                           
UKMET/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATE SURFACE RIDGING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGING IS A RESULT OF A                   
STRONGER SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE E SIDE OF THE BIG              
WESTERN RIDGE. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...AND               
DECENT WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND               
INSERTED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI NIGHT. IN                
ADDITION...WARMED READINGS UP FOR FRI UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING AND ON             
FRI NIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SAT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THE APPROACH              
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING MID            
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS              
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEIGS AND EVEN                
LOWER VIS FROM TIME TO TIME.  HAVE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
17-19Z AT CMX...AND 18-21Z AT SAW.  TIMING STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.             
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO COME TO THE SFC WITH ANY                  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IF A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE            
AREA TUE MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE                          
AFTERNOON...WIND WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45             
KT POSSIBLE AT KCMX THROUGH THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST)...                                
HIGH PRES OF 29.9 INCHES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE LAKE                 
HURON WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW               
PRES SYSTEM OF 29.6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME                  
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR              
THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO JAMES BAY WED MORNING. GALE WARNINGS                 
REMAIN POSTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS 35 KT            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW...CAUSING WAVES TO               
INCREASE TO THE 7 TO 11 FT RANGE TONIGHT WEST HALF...INTO WED EAST              
HALF.                                                                           
A LARGE 30.1 INCH HIGH WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS                
STATES THU AND SLIDE E INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRI. YET ANOTHER              
HIGH PRES OF 30.1 INCHES OVER WESTERN MANITOBA THU EVENING WILL MOVE            
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRI AFTERNOON. A WEAK 29.6 INCH LOW               
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY MIZ001-003 FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WED.            
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
112 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL              
FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. A VIGOROUS...WELL-DEFINED             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A 105 KT 250-300 MB JET STREAK                  
WAS LOCATED OVER SE ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH              
CNTRL LWR MI AND SRN WI FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A             
TROF WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SASK AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA SHRTWV. A WEAK              
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WRN LAKES HAS ALLOWED LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP            
WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR KERY AND BTWN KESC-KISQ. OTHERWISE...SCT              
CU PREVAILED ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF UPPER MI.                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.                   
THE GFS/UKMET SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN GLBL AND GEM HAVE                       
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND SFC FRONT TUE                
WERE PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER NAM...PER HPC. HOWEVER...THE LCLY RUN            
HIGH RES WRF WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM. STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE            
SCALE ASCENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV IS                    
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN THE THE FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE                 
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IF CLOUDS/SHRA MOVE THROUGH             
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES BLO 1K J/KG                
WOULD BE EXPECTED UNLESS SOME SUNSHINE CAN PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80              
F. NEVERTHELESS VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 KT                  
0-6KM SHEAR TO 50-55 KT SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR IF A               
LINEAR MCS COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE IN FROM MN AND NW WI. IF AN EARLIER            
CLOUD/PCPN BAND MOVES THROUGH AND CAPE VALUES RECOVER BEFORE THE                
ACTUAL FROPA...STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL             
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE NAM              
LCL HIGH RES WRF SOLUTIONS. OVERALL ADJUSTED TIMING FOR SLIGHTLY                
FASTER SHRA/TSRA ONSET AND EMPHASIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)...                                      
STRONG UNSEASONABLE COOL TROUGH SETS UP OVR UPR LAKES BEGINNING LATE            
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. LGT PCPN IN COLD CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE (SHOWING            
UP NICELY ON H7 THETA-E PROGS) ROTATES ACROSS NORTH TIER OF UPR MI              
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AGAIN...LIKE WAS MENTIONED IN SHORT                         
TERM...MAJORITY OF MODELS NOW INDICATE SPEED OF SYSTEM IS QUICKER.              
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TUE NIGHT. PREFERRED MIDDLE GROUND                 
SOLUTION REGARDING POSITION AND SPEED OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT RESULTS             
IN WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY LATE TUE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN             
WAKE OF COLD FRONT.                                                             
CORE OF WINDS TO 50 KT AS LOW AS 2000 FT SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM.                  
LOCALLY RUN HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-ARW AGREES WITH NAM. WIND CORE TO               
50 KT...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG VORT MAX...AND MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH              
DESCEND OVR LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN TIER OF CWA 00Z-06Z WED.                   
MIXING PORTION OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN SHOULD RESULT IN                
GALES 35-40 KT OVR LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS REACHING AT LEAST ADVY                 
SPEEDS ON EXPOSED KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IF HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-ARW IS             
CORRECT IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD SOLID 45 KT AT 925MB OVR WESTERN LK               
SUPERIOR ACROSS KEWEENAW THEN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF KEWEENAW             
MAY HIT 50 KT WHICH JUSTIFIES HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS. DID NOT               
ISSUE A WATCH RIGHT NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF FRONT.                    
ALSO...EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS OF ONTONAGON AND PERHAPS ALGER/LUCE              
COUNTIES WOULD NEED AN ADVY IF THE LOCALLY RUN HIGH RESOLUTION WRF.             
TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE PATTERN HELPS IN PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS               
...BUT MAXIMUM PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET PASSES NORTH OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. SO...ISALLOBARIC EFFECTS SHOULD NOT ENHANCE WINDS AS MUCH             
AS NORMALLY CAN BE SEEN. KEPT MINIMUM GALES ON LK SUPERIOR TO START             
WED. DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY EVEN INLAND. TEMPS WILL BEGIN            
THEIR DECENT...LIKELY NOT REACHING 60 DEGREES NEAR THE LK SUPERIOR              
SHORE.                                                                          
TIMING A BIT DIFFERENT WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE FOR LATER WED AS               
NOW MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE SWEEPING IN WED NIGHT. EVEN THE            
NAM/UKMET SOLUTIONS SPLIT AT THIS POINT WITH NAM SHOWING A MUCH                 
LATER ARRIVAL TIME ON WED NIGHT. MODEL INCONSISTENCY/UNCERTAINTY SO             
PRETTY MUCH LEFT GOING POPS ALONE. EXPECTED PATTERN SUGGESTS AFTN               
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES              
AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON THE UPSWING (LI/S JUST BLO ZERO AND                
CAPES TOWARD 500 J/KG) JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER MENTION IN FORECAST.             
BROKEN RECORD FOR THU TOO. SIMILAR INSTABILITY PROFILE AND ANY                  
SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW COULD TRIGGER SOME                   
PCPN...MAINLY AWAY FM STABILIZING OF LK SUPERIOR.                               
BEYOND THU...NOT MUCH CHANGING IN LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH UNSEASONABLY            
COOL TROUGH LOCKED IN OVR GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG RIDGE BAKING THE             
WESTERN CONUS. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPS SUN INTO MON AS FLOW BACKS MORE            
WESTERLY...ALLOWING PORTION OF HOT AIR OVR PLAINS TO SLIP BACK INTO             
FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL...TEMPS EVEN DURING THIS TIME...WILL             
ONLY RISE TO AROUND NORMAL. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...H5 TEMPS             
BLO -15C...AND OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES/MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND UPR               
LOW...SUGGEST PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE            
AFTN/EVENING HOURS THU THROUGH SUN. AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE/H5 TEMPS             
NEARING -20C SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER OVR INLAND AREAS ON THU.                
BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PCPN ON MON WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER                 
SHORTWAVE AND A SFC TROUGH.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.  THE APPROACH            
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING MID            
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS              
BY TUE MORNING...WITH MVFR CEIGS AND EVEN LOWER VIS FROM TIME TO                
TIME.  HAVE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 15-21Z AT CMX...AND 17-23Z             
AT SAW.  TIMING STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE             
EXPECTED TO COME TO THE SFC WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IF A                
LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA TUE MORNING. AS THE               
COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WIND WILL BE STRONG OUT OF            
THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT POSSIBLE AT KCMX THROUGH THE END OF             
THE TIME PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST)...                                
A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW AND PRES             
GRADIENT FOR JULY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOW PASSING              
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE S TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY LATE                 
TONIGHT AND TUE WITH VEERING AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SW TO W              
WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY TUE EVENING. CAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR               
DECENT MIXING WITH WAVES BUILDING AT LEAST INTO THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLB                                                         
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
942 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY AFTER A DAY OF DAMAGING               
WINDS DROPPED TREES AND POWER LINES AND EVEN RESULTED IN BUILDING               
DAMAGE IN SPOTS. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO NEARLY CALM IN SOME                    
PLACES ACROSS NE MN AND INTERIOR AREAS OF NW WI. THE STRONGEST                  
WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE CONFINED TO THE AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR               
AND EVEN THOSE AREAS CONTINUED TO DROP. HAVE JUST UPDATED TO                    
REMOVE THE GALE WARNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE                 
SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WIND/WAVES ARE DROPPING               
FAST ENOUGH ON THE NORTH SHORE TO GET BY WITHOUT HEADLINES. HAVE                
ALSO DROPPED TEMPS IN SPOTS AS THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN                
SPOTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...INTENSE S/W TROF AND DEEP SFC LOW FOR JULY CURRENTLY               
LOCATED OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE RATHER                  
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. MAIN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE                
DEPARTING SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NE MN..AND MOVING EASTWARD                  
RATHER RAPIDLY. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE ARROWHEAD IS MORE                    
STABLE THAN FARTHER SOUTH..THUS PREVENTING REALIZATION OF VERY                  
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER..FARTHER SOUTH..STRONG WINDS               
WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR METRO AREA THRU AROUND 6-7              
PM..WHERE DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED 50-60 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE                 
DECK TO MIX DOWN. IN ADDITION..WINDS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO A MORE                
NWRLY DIRECTION IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA..AND ARE NOW NEARLY                      
PERPENDICULAR TO THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE. THIS IS RESULTING               
IS A GRAVITY WAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE..AND ALLOWING                  
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN DOWNTOWN DULUTH.. THE HARBOR AND THE                  
CITY OR SUPERIOR. WE HAVE KEPT THE WIND ADV THRU 7 PM FOR SRN ST.               
LOUIS/CARLTON/DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD COUNTIES FOR THIS REASON..BUT WILL               
CANCEL THE ADV FOR ALL OTHER AREAS AS GRADIENT WILL CONT TO RELAX               
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED.                     
SHOWERS/WEAK TSTORMS WILL DEPART THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..BUT NEXT           
UPSTREAM IMPULSE MAY STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OR A FEW WEAK TSTORMS                
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO NRN MN FROM NDAKOTA.                                 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY FOREAST PERIOD..UNSEASONABLY STRONG              
NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECASTED TO PERSIST..WITH SEVERAL WAVES                      
ROTATING SEWD THRU THE FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS               
WITH WAVES ON WEDNESDAY..AND AGAIN SOMETIME FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPS              
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS                
UNTIL NEXT WEEK.                                                                
 MILLER/CANNON                                                                  
AVIATION...UNUSUALLY DEEP CANADIAN VORTEX WITH STRONG SFC LOW GENERATING        
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA. LLWS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS             
EVENING AS LATEST RUC INDICATES CORE OF 55/60KT LLJ AT 2/3K FT WILL             
MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON.WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND DEEP             
LAYER MOISTURE EDGING EAST...WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN            
THIS EVENING. LATEST SREF/GFS SUGGEST PRECIP MAY AFFECT INL/HIB                 
TERMINALS BY END OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD.                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  50  67  50  71 /  20  30  20  30                                           
INL  49  65  47  69 /  20  30  20  30                                           
BRD  47  72  51  74 /  20  20  10  10                                           
HYR  48  71  50  70 /  20  30  20  20                                           
ASX  52  69  52  70 /  20  30  20  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-           
     LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                             
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...INTENSE S/W TROF AND DEEP SFC LOW FOR JULY CURRENTLY              
LOCATED OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE RATHER                  
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. MAIN AREA OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE                
DEPARTING SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NE MN..AND MOVING EASTWARD                  
RATHER RAPIDLY. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE ARROWHEAD IS MORE                    
STABLE THAN FARTHER SOUTH..THUS PREVENTING REALIZATION OF VERY                  
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER..FARTHER SOUTH..STRONG WINDS               
WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR METRO AREA THRU AROUND 6-7              
PM..WHERE DEEPER MIXING HAS ALLOWED 50-60 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE                 
DECK TO MIX DOWN. IN ADDITION..WINDS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO A MORE                
NWRLY DIRECTION IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA..AND ARE NOW NEARLY                      
PERPENDICULAR TO THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE. THIS IS RESULTING               
IS A GRAVITY WAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE..AND ALLOWING                  
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN DOWNTOWN DULUTH.. THE HARBOR AND THE                  
CITY OR SUPERIOR. WE HAVE KEPT THE WIND ADV THRU 7 PM FOR SRN ST.               
LOUIS/CARLTON/DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD COUNTIES FOR THIS REASON..BUT WILL               
CANCEL THE ADV FOR ALL OTHER AREAS AS GRADIENT WILL CONT TO RELAX               
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED.                     
SHOWERS/WEAK TSTORMS WILL DEPART THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..BUT NEXT           
UPSTREAM IMPULSE MAY STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OR A FEW WEAK TSTORMS                
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO NRN MN FROM NDAKOTA.                                 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY FOREAST PERIOD..UNSEASONABLY STRONG              
NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECASTED TO PERSIST..WITH SEVERAL WAVES                      
ROTATING SEWD THRU THE FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS               
WITH WAVES ON WEDNESDAY..AND AGAIN SOMETIME FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPS              
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS                
UNTIL NEXT WEEK.                                                                
 MILLER/CANNON                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UNUSUALLY DEEP CANADIAN VORTEX WITH STRONG SFC LOW GENERATING       
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA. LLWS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS             
EVENING AS LATEST RUC INDICATES CORE OF 55/60KT LLJ AT 2/3K FT WILL             
MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON.WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND DEEP             
LAYER MOISTURE EDGING EAST...WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN            
THIS EVENING. LATEST SREF/GFS SUGGEST PRECIP MAY AFFECT INL/HIB                 
TERMINALS BY END OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD.                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  50  67  50  71 /  20  30  20  30                                           
INL  50  65  47  69 /  40  30  20  30                                           
BRD  49  72  51  74 /  20  20  10  10                                           
HYR  49  71  50  70 /  10  30  20  20                                           
ASX  53  69  52  70 /  20  30  20  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN             
     ST. LOUIS.                                                                 
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAYFIELD-DOUGLAS.            
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-           
     LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ140-                
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145.                                        
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1049 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG GRADIENT AND MIXING POTENTIIAL OF 40 KNOTS /850-700 MB/ WILL             
BE ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVSY CRITERIA MOST AREAS OF MN CWA. COLD                    
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS NW CWA..SO HAVE NOTCHED DOWN A BIT              
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION....FOR 12Z TAFS                                                       
CDFNT RPDLY MVG ACRS MN WITH FNT AT 12Z                                         
THRU AXN AND RWF AND WL EXIT MN BY ARND 16Z. STG COLD ADVECTION                 
AND STG SFC PRES GRAD IN WAKE OF FNT WL CAUSE GUSTS TO 30                       
KTS...ESP AT W TAF SITES. PCPN THREAT HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED. BANDS              
OF SC WITH BASES ARND 2 TO 3K WL AFFECT MAINLY THE AXN AND STC TAF              
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/                         
DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST                   
AREA...STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY GFK TO PIR. IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION               
SEEN IN SURFACE OBS...AS WELL AS THE RADAR MOSAIC...ASSOCIATED                  
WITH THE LOW CENTER. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
FRONTAL SURFACE...AND THE VORT MAX...HAS ROTATED INTO NORTHERN                  
MINNESOTA...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL                       
MINNESOTA. THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE QUITE TRICKY                             
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                                    
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDDAY...KEEPING THE                 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS                  
OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE SOME                     
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY RICE LAKE TO DURAND AND EAST PRIOR TO 21Z.                
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...WITH A STILL                     
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW...AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.                  
INTENSE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN                 
MANITOBA...AND THE RUC DEPICTS ARE SEASONALLY STRONG PV ANOMALY                 
MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ON THE                 
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A NON THUNDERSTORM RELATED WIND GUST TO              
63 KTS WAS NOTED AT DVL IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IMMEDIATELY                   
BENEATH THE VORT CENTER. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30KTS                 
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH               
70S PREVAILING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN                     
MINNESOTA...AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD. BEST LI PROGS DO                
NOT REALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER RISK WITH THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH              
SHOWERS FOR THE WEATHER TYPE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BENTON-              
     BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-                   
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-                        
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE                
     LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-                  
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                  
     WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE                          
     COUNTY(IES).                                                               
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/BAPJPR                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
650 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRETCHING               
FROM ROUGHLY GFK TO PIR. IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION SEEN IN SURFACE                 
OBS...AS WELL AS THE RADAR MOSAIC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW                     
CENTER. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL                      
SURFACE...AND THE VORT MAX...HAS ROTATED INTO NORTHERN                          
MINNESOTA...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL                       
MINNESOTA. THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE QUITE TRICKY                             
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                                    
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDDAY...KEEPING THE                 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS                  
OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE SOME                     
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY RICE LAKE TO DURAND AND EAST PRIOR TO 21Z.                
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...WITH A STILL                     
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW...AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.                  
INTENSE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN                 
MANITOBA...AND THE RUC DEPICTS ARE SEASONALLY STRONG PV ANOMALY                 
MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ON THE                 
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A NON THUNDERSTORM RELATED WIND GUST TO              
63 KTS WAS NOTED AT DVL IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IMMEDIATELY                   
BENEATH THE VORT CENTER. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30KTS                 
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH               
70S PREVAILING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN                     
MINNESOTA...AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD. BEST LI PROGS DO                
NOT REALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER RISK WITH THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH              
SHOWERS FOR THE WEATHER TYPE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS                                                        
CDFNT RPDLY MVG ACRS MN WITH FNT AT 12Z THRU AXN AND RWF AND WL EXIT            
MN BY ARND 16Z. STG COLD ADVECTION AND STG SFC PRES GRAD IN WAKE OF             
FNT WL CAUSE GUSTS TO 30 KTS...ESP AT W TAF SITES. PCPN THREAT HAS              
PRETTY MUCH ENDED.  BANDS OF SC WITH BASES ARND 2 TO 3K WL AFFECT               
MAINLY THE AXN AND STC TAF SITES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/WET/BAP                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
338 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRETCHING               
FROM ROUGHLY GFK TO PIR. IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION SEEN IN SURFACE                 
OBS...AS WELL AS THE RADAR MOSAIC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW                     
CENTER. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL                      
SURFACE...AND THE VORT MAX...HAS ROTATED INTO NORTHERN                          
MINNESOTA...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL                       
MINNESOTA. THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE QUITE TRICKY                             
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.                                    
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDDAY...KEEPING THE                 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE                     
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS                  
OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE SOME                     
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY RICE LAKE TO DURAND AND EAST PRIOR TO 21Z.                
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY...WITH A STILL                     
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW...AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.                  
INTENSE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN                 
MANITOBA...AND THE RUC DEPICTS ARE SEASONALLY STRONG PV ANOMALY                 
MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ON THE                 
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A NON THUNDERSTORM RELATED WIND GUST TO              
63 KTS WAS NOTED AT DVL IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IMMEDIATELY                   
BENEATH THE VORT CENTER. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30KTS                 
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH               
70S PREVAILING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE                      
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN                     
MINNESOTA...AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD. BEST LI PROGS DO                
NOT REALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER RISK WITH THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH              
SHOWERS FOR THE WEATHER TYPE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS                                                        
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM RISK BEFORE DAWN THIS               
TUESDAY. AFTER REVIEWING OUTPUT FROM 12 KM NAM MODEL OUTPUT FOR                 
SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY...HAVE OPTED TO TEMPO THUNDER AT KSTC              
AND SPEED UP BY AN HOUR (11Z) VCTS FOR KMPX. AFTER DAYBREAK THE                 
PROBLEM WILL BE SURFACE WIND ISSUES WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FOR A                
NUMBER OF SITES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/WET                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
931 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR           
A WINNSBORO TO HATTIESBURG LINE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED TSRA IN            
THE GRIDS/ZONES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND            
ISOLATED SHRA AFTERWARD AS FRONT STALLS OVERNIGHT. 00Z ROABS HAVE               
DRIED OUT BY ALMOST A QUARTER INCH PWAT VALUES AND BOTH RUC/NAM12               
NOT DEVELOPING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING ON               
THURSDAY SETS THINGS IN MOTION. AIRMASS PROGGED TO BECOME VERY                  
UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 3K J/KG AND 7-500MB              
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5C OVER WRN HALF OF CWFA...ESPECIALLY OVER DELTA               
REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE.                              
UPDATED GRIDS/GRAPHICS SHOULD BE OUT AND ZONES WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.             
BALANCE OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE AFFECTING                 
MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...OR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE               
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...THURSDAY WITH ITS POSITION. THE BEST                   
MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF WITH PWATS RANGING FROM ONLY             
AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES WEST           
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. SINCE            
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR                 
THURSDAY...DO NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON                  
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE KIND OF                
ACTIVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS           
IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DECENT                      
FLOW...WITH 25-35 KT WINDS AT 500MB EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE            
AREA WILL SEE DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -7 TO -8 C             
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH             
850MB TEMPS AROUND 18-19 C. LIFTED INDICES LOOK TO BE AROUND -6 TO -8           
OVER THIS HALF OF THE AREA AS WELL. SO SEE NO PROBLEM GETTING STRONG            
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CWFA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS BEING           
THE MAIN CONCERN.                                                               
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO                  
APPROACH THE CWFA...AND BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM THE              
NORTH.  THEREFORE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD            
TRANSITION TO BE MORE OVER THE NORTHERN...AND ESPECIALLY                        
NORTHWESTERN...PART OF THE CWFA.  MOST OF THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO              
AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE            
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL THEN BE LOCATED OVER THIS REGION.  THE              
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20            
CORRIDOR QUIET.                                                                 
OVERALL MAV GUI TEMPERATURES LOOKED RATHER REASONABLE.  MADE A FEW              
ADJUSTMENTS FOR SOME SELECTED SITES.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS MADE               
OVER THE NORTH FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHERE IT LOOKED LIKE GUI WAS                    
OVERDOING DROPPING TEMPERATURES.  SO I STUCK CLOSER TO ENSEMBLES FOR            
THIS AREA.  ELSEWHERE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED. /14/                      
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM IT APPEARS THAT             
OUR WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES           
PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL                 
DISTURBANCES WILL BE ACCOMPANIES BY SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES. LONG               
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME AROUND TO THE GENERAL TIMING OF            
THE DISTURBANCES AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. MODELS SEEM             
TO SHOW A RATHER WET PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.                              
ON FRIDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE                       
REGION...WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.               
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEEM TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE...SO WILL KEEP              
THE BEST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. CHECKING SOME INDICES FOR THIS                   
PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE JUST OVER 2 INCHES...K-INDEX OF             
AROUND 40...850 DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS...LIFTED INDEXES -6 TO               
-8C...850 WINDS AND 500 MB WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS.  A SURFACE             
WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE                
FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY               
FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND LOW TO               
MID LEVEL FLOW.                                                                 
THE GFS WAS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM IN MOVING THE SHORT              
WAVES/SURFACE WAVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE              
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE         
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING.  FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS              
SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS             
FROM THE EAST. WE WILL HAVE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE             
WILL BE ENOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS. THE POPS           
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS WE VENTURE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE              
WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS.                                       
SO WITH THAT SAID WILL GO WITH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE                
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF  RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.            
CURRENT MODEL HIGHS LOOKED TO BE PRETTY GOOD...WITH NUMBERS RANGING             
FROM MAINLY THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS            
TO THE GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS.                
SOME OF THE GRIDS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO HIGH DURING THE DAYS. GUIDANCE            
LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER ON THIS ROUND OF FORECASTS...CONSIDERING THE             
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S./17/                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND OVERNIGHT             
EXPECT THE AREA TO SEE PERIODIC HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS THINNING OUT.              
HOWEVER MANY SITES WILL SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN THE HOURS OF                
09-14Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION 11-13Z.              
BY 13-14Z...FOG AND ANY LOW BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF.               
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WEST OF THE                   
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR./40/                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       70  94  71  91 /   4  25  19  46                                  
MERIDIAN      68  93  69  91 /   4  16  17  61                                  
VICKSBURG     71  94  72  91 /   4  36  21  33                                  
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  93 /  22  25  17  48                                  
NATCHEZ       72  94  72  92 /  20  34  22  24                                  
GREENVILLE    68  93  72  88 /   4  35  35  50                                  
GREENWOOD     68  92  72  89 /   4  28  31  57                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK. I WILL BACK OF            
ON TIMING BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS GOOD. LATEST RUC STILL SHOWS A NICE              
AREA OF H85 THETA E AIR PUMPING INTO OUR NW LATER TONIGHT WITH VERY             
DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE(PWS AROUND 2"). CURRENT CONVECTION OVER            
SRN AR CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SE AND IF THE RUC IS RIGHT IT COULD              
BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND SET UP ALMOST DUE WEST TO EAST. WITH THE              
LL WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE WEST ALONG WITH STORM MOTION                
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 KTS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP               
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA                  
RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A SERIOUS ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO                
WATCH AND SEE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED. OTHER THAN THE                  
TIMING OF CONVECTION FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THROUGH THE EVENING MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN            
VFR STATUS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE                     
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THAT AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY GLH.              
OTHERWISE THE OTHER CONCERN COULD BE MEI AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE MVFR              
CEILINGS AND VISBIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
A POTENT (FOR THE SEASON) UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING                
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE PUSHING A LOW                 
LEVEL BOUNDARY INTO THE HEART OF THE ARKLAMISS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...IN                     
COMBINATION WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST 850 MB FLOW...SHOULD               
ENSURE LOTS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME MCS             
POTENTIAL. THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY EAST              
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT THE TRAILING LOW             
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR            
AT LEAST 20 TO 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. EXPECTING SOUTHERN            
AREAS TO LIKELY DEAL WITH CAPPING ISSUES TONIGHT...AND THUS REMAIN              
FREE OF MOST OF THE RAIN AFTER SUNSET UNLESS A WELL DEVELOPED MCS               
CAN PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN               
RISKS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL COME TONIGHT            
INTO EARLY TOMORROW OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE                
TWENTY. IT IS HERE WHERE ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING INTO THE                
REGION FROM UPSTREAM COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS DUE TO RELATIVELY               
STRONG AMBIENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE ALIGNMENT            
OF 850MB AND STEERING WINDS LATER TONIGHT COULD CREATE POTENTIAL FOR            
BACKWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTION THAT COULD DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF               
RAIN ON LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW HOURS TIMES. SUCH A SCENARIO COULD               
CREATE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS IN NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE RATHER                
SATURATED STATE OF THE GROUND. HOWEVER...I HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF             
ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN THE FACT THAT CONVECTION                   
UPSTREAM REALLY HAS NOT GOT GOING YET...THUS MAKING JUDGING ITS                 
LATTER MOVEMENT EVEN MORE OF A CRAPSHOOT.                                       
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING LATE TOMORROW INTO               
TOMORROW NIGHT TO GENERALLY DRY THE REGION OUT BRIEFLY.                         
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY RIGHT OVER THE REGION              
MAY STILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY TOMORROW NIGHT AND MAV POPS            
WERE UPPED SOME TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. I ALSO RAISED MAV POPS IN             
ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW TO COVER CONVECTIVE THREAT. TEMPS            
KEPT AT MAV EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED             
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TOMORROW WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND                  
TOMORROW NIGHT MAINLY RANGING FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. /BB/                       
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                          
LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM IT APPEARS THAT OUR WET PATTERN WILL                   
CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHES INTO THE                
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE            
ACCOMPANIES BY SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES.                                         
A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL SET           
UP A BOUNDARY FOR THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME ON             
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.            
THE MODELS WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR EXCEPT FOR SOME SLIGHT SETUP AND              
TIMING ISSUES. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE WHILE PUSHING TOWARD THE               
GFS SOLUTION. LOOKING AT SOME INDICES PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE FROM           
AROUND 2 TO APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES...500 MB FLOW WILL BE AROUND 25              
TO 30 KNOTS AND 850 FLOW AROUND 15-20 KNOTS...LAPSE RATES 6-7C. THE             
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY               
FRIDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES             
OF SURFACE WAVES WILL CROSS THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.               
WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND RICH PRECIPITABLE            
WATER WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE                  
BOUNDARY AND THE WAVES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.            
THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AS             
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. WITH SUCH A RICH AIRMASS                
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL ENTER THE MIX AT              
THE SURFACE. SO WILL KEEP CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE                
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND 2                 
INCHES...AND LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKENS SOME. BUT THERE STILL            
BE SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WITH AFTERNOON                
HEATING. A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL COME INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY            
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL WILL BE A LITTLE MORE                     
IMPRESSIVE WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE A             
LITTLE DRYER AT 1.5 TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL               
KEEP THE SAME SEVERE POSSIBLE WORDING IN THE HWO.                               
SO WITH THAT SAID WILL GO WITH CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE               
PERIOD. CUT POPS SLIGHTLY ON SOME DAYS BY AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT.              
CURRENT MODEL HIGHS LOOKED TO BE PRETTY GOOD...WITH NUMBERS RANGING             
FROM MAINLY THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS            
TO SKY GRIDS. GUIDANCE SEEMED TO GO A LITTLE LOW ON SOME                        
NIGHTS...CONSIDERING ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS WILL             
BE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S./17/                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       74  93  72  93 /  54  39  13  31                                  
MERIDIAN      73  91  69  93 /  48  49  14  21                                  
VICKSBURG     74  94  73  93 /  59  35  14  38                                  
HATTIESBURG   74  94  73  93 /  23  39  20  29                                  
NATCHEZ       74  91  73  91 /  28  32  13  42                                  
GREENVILLE    73  90  70  92 /  74  38  16  42                                  
GREENWOOD     74  90  71  90 /  80  46  14  34                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAB                                                                             
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1023 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE SOME UPDATES TO POP/WX/SKY/MIN TEMP/WIND GRIDS.  ALL PRODUCTS SENT.        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRES FM                   
CANADA TO ERN NEB AND ERN KS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND               
GENERALLY COMING AROUND TO THE SW. PATCHES OF MID CLDS WERE NOTED               
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY...WITH SOME CLEAR LOCATIONS AND               
OTHER CLOUDY LOCATIONS. THESE MID CLDS WERE NOTED ESPECIALLY IN                 
THE H8-H7 LYR. QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEGREE OF WAA AND                 
IF IT CAN GENERATE PRECIP.                                                      
THE NAM BACKED OFF IT/S 18Z SOLUTION WHERE IT HAD A MUCH HIGHER                 
CHC OF PRECIP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. THE EARLIER RUN HAD                 
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...THUS STRONGER THETA-E AVECTION.                 
THE LATEST NAM HAS HIGH MID LEVEL RH OVR THE CWA AROUND 06Z.                    
OVERNIGHT...THE BETTER RH...TENDS TO SKIRT THE CWA...WITH THE N                 
AND THE S SEEING THE BEST RH. THE RUC DOES THE SAME THING...WITH A              
MIN OVER THE CNTRL CWA AND HIGHER RH N AND S. THERE IS WAA                      
OVERNIGHT AND THE THETA-E AXIS IS OVR THE CWA. WILL 15 TO 25 KTS                
BE ENOUGH...IT COULD...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO                 
THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION SHOWS UP              
OVR KS. WILL CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS IN GENERAL WITH DRY OR LOW               
POPS CENTRAL/WEST/SOUTH...HOWEVER DID KEEP A CHANCE GOING IN THE                
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS                   
AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVELS STILL RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.            
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS NAM AND GFS            
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO QPF FIELDS. 12Z CANADIAN               
AND SREF WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERN FOCUS OF THE GFS             
WHILE THE NAM CONFINES MAIN PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT MOVING                
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. NAM IDEA WITH               
FOCUS NEAR FRONT SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE BUT WITH LOW LEVELS ON THE DRY             
SIDE WILL LIMIT POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD AS FRONT            
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO             
FRIDAY WITH MORE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                              
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BROADENS THEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HOT               
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED THIS PART OF THE             
FORECAST TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS                 
MORNING. 12Z EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AHEAD OF                  
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH DAY 6 AND 7.                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE                
FORECAST PERIOD WITH ANY CEILINGS GENERALLY 10000 FEET AND ABOVE.               
REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES               
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH A WEAK SURFACE                  
TROUGH INTO THE CWFA LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS            
AT KOFK BY 10Z...AND POSSIBLY AT KOMA BY 12Z AND KLNK AT 13Z. DID               
NOT MENTION TSRA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE             
AND THUS WE JUST ADDED CB TO THE CLOUD GROUP. WOULD EXPECT PRECIP               
CHANCES TO END AT KOFK BY 14Z AND AT KOMA AND KLNK BY 16Z TO 17Z.               
THOUGHT THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR 3000 FEET CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT            
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SHARP TURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS.                          
DF/VLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
938 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS             
OR JUST OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED              
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT                 
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                     
BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITRH THE SFC PRE-FRONTAL TROF...THE                   
INSTABILITY...AND THE UPPER IMPULSE VIA LATEST RUC PROGS...ARE ALL              
NOW EXITTING THE ILM CWA. AS A RESULT...HAVE TONED DOWN THE PCPN                
POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE            
A RESULT OF THE MUCH WEAKER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD               
FRONT ITSELF. HIER POPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO              
THU...DUE TO THE SFC FRONT SLOWING DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD                       
PROGRESSION AND POSSIBLY IF NOT LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE            
ILM CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED OVERNIGHT MINS 1 OR 2              
DEGREES DUE TO LATEST NAM GUIDANCE AND PCPN EFFECTS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FROM 6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...COLD FRONT              
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THURSDAY                     
MORNING...AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE              
MOVING OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND LINGER INLAND                
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST...A MOIST AND                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.            
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH                
THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE HERE. EXPECT MAINLY                
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT                
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED.                  
LEFTOVER BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WASH OUT ON SUNDAY...BUT              
UNTIL IT DOES WE WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS AT OR                
JUST BELOW CLIMO. UPPER IMPULSE ADVERTISED BY GFS OVER THE WEEKEND              
APPEARS TO BE FEEDBACK SO NOT PLACING MUCH STOCK IN THAT AT THE                 
MOMENT.                                                                         
MON THRU WED THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER US AND TEMPS WILL BE BACK               
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT STILL JUST A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF MEX GUIDANCE               
INLAND.  WITH THE RIDGING DO NOT FEEL ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                      
LINE OF CONVECTION PASSED ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING               
AND NOW WE HAVE A AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL              
TERMINALS ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AT ILM. WILL BE                 
KEEPING THE TERMINALS AT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREVAILING BUT WILL              
MENTION MVFR AT ILM DUE TO CEILINGS IN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT             
FEW HOURS UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT               
WILL STAY VFR AS GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP               
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. FOR THURSDAY THERE IS THE CHANCE AGAIN FOR             
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.                                                           
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A BETTER            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL             
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...                                      
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS WEAKENED THE INLAND                  
CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY PRIOR TO MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND             
WELL INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE 30+ KNOT WINDS WERE             
OBSERVED FROM THIS CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS               
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUED WEAKENING AND PROGREESSING FURTHER INTO A                
DEEPER STABLE MARINE LAYER. SFC PG TO REMAIN TIGHT ENUF TO WARRANT              
15-20 KT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. CULD SEE WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO A               
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER THE SFC TROF PUSHES THRU. HAVE GONE               
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE TO 3-5            
FT SEAS COMBINED WITH 15-20KT WIND SPEEDS WITH A FEW HIER GUSTS TO              
25 KT. BEST FETCH FOR THIS WIND DIR IS ACROSS AMZ250-252 WHERE 5                
FOOTERS WILL BE FELT...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING PAN                     
SHOALS.                                                                         
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
FRONT WILL STALL INLAND AND SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN A BIT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS                     
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE                
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STALLED TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP                  
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER                 
GUSTS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.               
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE INFLUENCE OF THE               
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN S/SW WINDS THRU THE                           
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...33//DCH                                                              
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...33                                                                 
LONG TERM...35                                                                  
AVIATION...CAROPOLO                                                             
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
948 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH             
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST                    
THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN                 
STALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
WELL...MOST OF CENTRAL NC HAS BEEN `OUTFLOWED` FROM CONVECTION                  
PREVIOUSLY THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S                       
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY                  
STILL IN THE LOWER 90S AT 8PM...ALTHOUGH THEY`VE SINCE DROPPED                  
INTO THE 80S. EVEN WITH A POST CONVECTIVE NEAR SFC STABLE                       
LAYER...CONVECTION IS STILL MANAGING TO FIRE THIS EVENING ACROSS                
THE AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL                      
NC...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE                       
TRIANGLE. THIS WOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO HELP CONVECTION FIRE GIVEN                 
THE COLD POOL OVER THE AREA...THOUGH. A LOOK AT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A              
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE WESTERN NC                     
MOUNTAINS... AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY CATALYST FOR                      
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RUC40 H3                 
VORT MAX FIELD... AND IT SHOWS THIS FEATURE SWEEPING THROUGH                    
CENTRAL NC BY 06-08Z OR SO. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS                 
THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMILAR TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST                        
CONTINUES POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z...AND PARTS                  
WITH THEM AFTERWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY                   
WHICH SHOWS NO PRECIP WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 IN WESTERN NC...AND                 
THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA BY               
06-08Z...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES BY 06-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST SOUNDS               
PRETTY GOOD. THEREFORE...THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS                   
EVENING WILL BE TO UP POP CHANCES BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF                 
CURRENT RADAR DATA THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. -VINCENT                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                          
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS EAST THROUGH NC.                
MORNING SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD DESTABILIZATION ON             
WHICH THE BROAD-SCALE PVA CAN WORK. MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES              
INFERRED BY THE WARMER AIR UPSTREAM NOTED ON THIS MORNING`S 500 MB              
UA ANALYSIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT... HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER               
SHEAR WILL BE IMPROVING. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WESTERN              
CWA AFTER 18Z... WITH LIKELY POPS THEN SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE REST            
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN                 
DOWN... WITH A NOTABLE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS                     
BALANCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE                     
NORMAL... BETTER THAN 2.2 INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HALF TO TWO            
THIRDS OF AN INCH... BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE LOCALLY HEAVIER. HIGHS            
89-95 WEDNESDAY AND LOWS 70-75 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE                  
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT DRYING US OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THURSDAY AS            
THE "COLD" FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... AND WITH                  
IRREFUTABLE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE HAVE LOWERED OR DROPPED POPS                    
THURSDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOTING GOOD DRYING THROUGH THE                 
COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT. HIGHS 89-92. HAVE HELD ONTO                
SMALL POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR THE STALLED                  
FRONT... ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT DOES QUICKLY WASH OUT BY FRIDAY... AND             
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON              
WITH DESTABILIZATION RETURNING ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOWS            
65-71 AND HIGHS 88-92 FRIDAY. -GIH                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICAN SHOWS A DEVELOPING               
POSITIVE PNA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE... WHICH TYPICALLY EQUATES TO             
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THE               
LATEST ECMWF (PREFERRED OVER THE GFS) SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OVER             
CENTRAL OR EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S                    
DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THIS IS THE ACTUAL "COLD" FRONT... BRINGING                
LESS MOIST AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE RAH            
CWA... OR IF THIS IS MERELY THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH THE ACTUAL                 
FRONT STILL HOLDING JUST NW OF THE CWA... UNABLE TO GET SUFFICIENT              
MOMENTUM TO GET IT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VA/NC. THE ECMWF`S 850            
TROUGH ON FRIDAY GETS QUICKLY WASHED OUT BY LATE SATURDAY...                    
IMPLYING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR TRULY DRY AIR TO WORK INTO THE CWA.             
BASED ON THE HISTORIC LOW OCCURRENCE OF A GENUINE COLD FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC... AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE LATTER                   
SOLUTION OF THE FRONT HANGING UP JUST NW OF CENTRAL NC BEFORE                   
WASHING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS               
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...                
HAVE RETAINED POPS... LOWER WEST AND HIGHER EAST... AND LOWER AT                
NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAYTIME. LOWS 69-73 AND HIGHS 88-91 WITH                  
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. HAVE CARRIED ISOLATED              
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT WITH                  
SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WARM                  
FRONTAL FEATURE BACK NORTH THROUGH NC LATE SUNDAY... AND WITH                   
INCREASING 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SSW AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE            
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH...            
HAVE GONE WITH 30-40% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 850 MB              
FLOW REMAINS AOA 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING AT               
THE SURFACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TO              
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC... SO SIMILAR MID-RANGE CHANCE            
POPS ARE PROJECTED FOR MONDAY AS WELL. BY TUESDAY... THE BERMUDA                
RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND               
WITH THE UPPER JET CORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND                        
WEAKENING... HAVE GONE WITH LOWER SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES              
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH                
HIGHS 85-88 SUNDAY... THEN TRANSITION TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL                   
READINGS WITH HIGHS TUESDAY 88-92. -GIH                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
THE COMBINATION OF A MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH            
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG               
MAINLY EASTERN PORTION OF TAF AREA 09-12Z WEDNESDAY.                            
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE                  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE                
EASTERN U.S. AND SENDS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA.               
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TAF AREA                 
FRIDAY. -RHJ                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
825 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF              
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES               
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS SLOW TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND WILL CARRY               
CHC POPS TO AROUND 06Z. SOME TSTMS STILL STRONG WITH FREQUENT                   
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP SHOULD WANE                  
AFTER 06Z PER LATEST RUN OF THE LOCAL ARW. CURRENT TEXT PRODUCT                 
LOOK GOOD AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                 
WEAK LOW PRES OVER AREA WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN THE                     
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BUSY                    
AFTN/NIGHT WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.              
WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT                
INDICES AROUND 100-105 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON TSTMS                    
SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE HEAT HOWEVER.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
SLIGHT DRYING TREND AFTER FRONT IN THE AREA BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.                
MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH               
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN SO, I                     
ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS AROUND 30 POPS THROUGHOUT THE                   
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER               
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z...LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST                 
MVFR FOG.                                                                       
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BUT A FRONTAL                      
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS EACH DAY              
WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPING.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6 FT EARLIER THAN             
ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND WITH CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AGAIN              
DO NOT EXPECT THESE SEAS TO DECREASE. WINDS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS               
AREA GUSTING TO SCA CRITERIA...BUT SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO                
CONVECTION. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS DECREASING LATE              
TONIGHT. WILL RAISE SCA FOR SRN WATERS NOW AND LET IT RUN THROUGH               
THURSDAY AFTN. OTHER THAN UPDATING THE SCA WILL MAKE NO SIG CHANGES             
TO GOING FORECAST.                                                              
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION THU AND CURRENT PROGS STALL            
IT ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS. WINDS WILL RELAX A LITTLE WITH THE                
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS. SEAS             
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA THU NIGHT. THE FRONT                  
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH S-SWLY FLOW                   
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA                
CRITERIA NEXT WEEKEND BUT SEAS WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY          
     FOR AMZ135-150.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-             
     158.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CTC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CTC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CTC                                                                
LONG TERM...MF                                                                  
AVIATION...CTC                                                                  
MARINE...MF                                                                     
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
950 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH SE MB/SW OT AND WILL CLIP            
NE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SEEING LIGHTNING IN ABOVE AREA WHICH            
MSAS DEPICTING WELL WITH SFC BASED INSTABILITY BULLSEYE. SURFACE                
FEATURES WEAK AND PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES .75 INCH HOWEVER RUC                  
SOUNDING SHOWING 1K+ CAPE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE                 
TEMPERATURES IN MID 60S AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL CLIPS NW MN. WILL               
KEEP LOW-MID LEVEL POPS GOING AS A RESULT AND MAY EXPAND ISOLD                  
POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLD HAILERS               
OVER PORTIONS OF NW INTO N CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. THICKEST CLOUD            
COVER WILL BE OVER NE FA IN COLDER AIR RESULTING IN LOWEST MAX                  
TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOIST LAYER AOB 850MB AND ATTAINABLE                     
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXPECT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON               
WHICH MAY LIMIT HEATING TO A DEGREE. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPERATURES                
LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING MUCH. DID MAKE MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/PCPN COVERAGE AND CLOUD TRENDS. WITH ADIABATIC              
LAYER TO 850MB AND 20-30KTS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MOST              
AREAS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER TSRA THIS            
AFTERNOON OVER NE FORECAST AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
153 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONT TO MOVE NE NEXT COUPLE OF             
DAYS.  A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA                
LATE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD OVER               
THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
CONVECTION IS REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME SURVIVING AS IT MOVES INTO              
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CAP THAT HAS                       
STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED                 
AND THE DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED TO SURROUNDING                
AREAS. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY              
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE                
FRONT TO HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE LINE OF STORMS OVER EXTREME              
NW INDIANA WILL LIKELY START TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST DUE TO                 
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...JUST THE PURE DYNAMICS OF                
THIS SPRING LIKE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING        
OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A LINE OF PRECIPITAITON AND STORMS TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED IMMEDIATLY AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT. THE 21Z RUC AND THE 18Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT                   
MOVING THROUGH TOL AND FDY AROUND 09Z...CLE AND MFD AROUND 12Z AND              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 16Z. SATELLITE SHOWS                   
PLENTY OF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS ACROSS THE AREA               
ON WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AROUND RUSH HOUR                
IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TMRW MORNING                      
ADDIITONAL STORMS MAY RE-FIRE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE              
TO DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...WILL END PCPN A LITTLE FASTER                 
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY.                                                    
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. WILL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY                   
TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT/S WAY SE ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA BY EARLY                 
WED AFT. BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THIS FRONT AND              
ALSO MATCH NICELY.  GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE FEEL LIKELY                    
WORDING WARRANTED AND WILL INTRODUCE TO ALL BUT FAR NW OH. WILL BE              
A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND SO TEMPS WILL BE A LOT COOLER THAN TODAY.                
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING LATE IN                
THE AM. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF THE AREA BY WED EVE              
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPS ON THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT                
WILL APPROACH AREA FROM THE NW LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WON/T                
LIKELY BE MUCH MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE BOUNDARY REACHES AREA BUT                 
BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING QPF. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONT WITH                  
SMALL CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. QPF AMOUNTS LIKELY WON/T BE MUCH.         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS              
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS REGION EARLY ON FRI. AS USUAL...QUITE            
A BIT DIFF AMONG MODELS...ESPECIALLY FROM DAY 5 ON. WILL CONT WITH              
SMALL CHC POPS FRI OVER ENTIRE AREA WITH FRONT IN AREA. LATER IN                
THE  WEEKEND IT APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE               
OF PRECIP. GFS A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH SFC LOW TRACK THAN OTHER                 
MODELS SO GO WITH ASSUMPTION THAT ACTUAL TRACK WILL BE FURTHER N                
CLOSER TO MODEL MEAN...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE OVER ONTARIO. FRONT                   
TRAILING THIS LOW COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER DURING                
THE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN PERIOD. WILL GIVE ALL AREAS A 30 TO 40              
POP BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP AS WEEKEND                    
APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS DURING THE FRI THRU SUN PERIOD WILL                
AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. SLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP                  
OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. APPEARS THAT A               
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE. SHOULD BE              
TOO DRY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. KEEP IT MIND THO...THAT A                 
LOT OF MODEL DIFFS REMAIN AND THAT FORECAST WILL BE FLUID WITH                  
ADJUSTS LIKELY. TEMPS MON AND TUE SHOULD NEAR NORMAL.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
APPEARS TO BE A SHORT WAVE ON SATELLITE LOOP TRACKING NEWRD FROM                
LWR OH VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRY TO FILL IN A BIT AHEAD OF                
COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH THEY MAY WELL REMAIN SCATTERED AND WILL USE A               
TEMPO FCST FOR NOW. FRONT SHOULD CROSS NW OHIO EARLY THIS                       
MORNING...THE I-71 CORRIDOR 12-13Z...AND EXTREME NE OH/NW PA BY                 
16Z. COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN A FEW SPOTS. DURING ANY                    
HEAVIER SHOWERS VSBY WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO              
IFR BUT WILL NOT BE SO PESSIMISTIC IN TAF FCSTS UNTIL I SEE THE                 
WHITES OF ITS EYES.                                                             
NICE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRONT AND AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VFR                       
STRATOCUMULUS (PERHAPS MVFR CEILINGS NE OHIO) SHOULD LOSE THE                   
LOWER CLOUDS AND BE LEFT WITH CIRRUS.                                           
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTRN INTO                
THURSDAY. MODELS HINTING AT FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS GREAT LAKES                    
THURSDAY/THUR NGT AND SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP. ANY                      
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY AFFECT THE FCST AREA                        
THURSDAY NGT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP IF ANY RAIN WERE                 
TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE                 
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AFTRN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SW WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT             
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE WED MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO W OR            
WNW.  A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE               
LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAUSING FLOW TO WAVER BETWEEN SW AND W BUT            
TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES HARD TO NAIL DOWN.  HIGH PRESSURE                 
SPREADING UP OH VALLEY FRI NITE WILL DECREASE WINDS LATE FRI INTO               
FRI NITE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME SAT BETWEEN HIGH IN THE SE AND              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGGING S CLOSE TO LERI BY SUNDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA                                                               
NEAR TERM...MRD/KUBINA                                                          
SHORT TERM...KUBINA                                                             
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...KOSARIK                                                              
MARINE...TK                                                                     
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
946 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON                 
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER               
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS IS IN                 
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS               
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED               
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND NUDGE UP POPS A BIT.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                       
DID NOT GO AS WARM TODAY IN THE SW AS SOME EARLY SHOWER ACTIVITY                
SHOULD REALLY HAMPER HOW HIGH TEMPS GET TODAY. THE MID LEVEL                    
FORCING THAT WILL HELP SPARK ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL               
HAVE PUSHED E TOWARDS WV AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING                 
SHOULD BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED...DECREASING AS THE NIGHT                        
PROGRESSES. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING                  
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TONIGHT WITH THE WARMEST LOWS OF THE PAST                  
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WILL                 
PUSH NW-SE THROUGH THE FCST AREA ON WED...SPARKING THUNDERSTORM                 
ACTIVITY. IT QUICKLY DRIES OUT ON THE NW SIDE OF IT...SO TEMPS IN               
THE NW COULD BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER WITH A FASTER PROGRESSION. WED               
NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT WILL SEE COMFORTABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS                
PREVAIL AS DRIER AIR GETS WORKED IN ON NRLY FLOW.                               
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT               
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE                  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THOSE                 
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY             
EVENING BUT KEPT LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST                 
ZONES.                                                                          
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER             
PART OF THE WEEK. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.            
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS OR              
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES. BUT THERE IS                  
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY OVER TIMING AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF ANY                    
CONVECTION. SO AT THIS POINT THERE ONLY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER FLOW                
WILL BECOME MORE CONFLUENT RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
RUC IS SHOWING SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A SOME H5                   
VORTS ACRS THE REGION THIS MRNG. A FEW SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN              
RESPONSE TO THIS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS LIFT TAPERS OFF BY                       
15Z...THEN BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WORKS BACK IN AFT 15Z. I                 
CANT RULE OUT SOMETHING THIS MRNG...BUT HAVE LEFT TEMPO TSRA IN THE             
AFTN FOR THE SW TAFS.                                                           
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN AFT 00Z. 06Z MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON                 
THEIR TIMING OF THE FNT. 06Z GFS S QUICKER...WITH THE FNT TO NR                 
I-71 BY 12Z WED. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BACK FROM TOL-MIE             
AT THE SAME TIME. THE NAM HAS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH ITS 00Z                    
RUN...SO WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE SPEED OF THE GFS FOR NOW. TSTMS                
AHEAD OF FNT COULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE WRN TAFS AT                   
12Z WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF AT THIS TIME TO PUT THEM              
IN...SO WILL JUST MENTION A CB.                                                 
OUTLOOK...TSTM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.                                   
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
245 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT             
TERM. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY                 
INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                                     
TONIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH            
DAKOTA BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. OVER THE BLACK HILLS...THE             
NAM AND RUC WERE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG THIS MORNING WITH A             
WEAK CAP IN PLACE...BUT SUBSEQUENT RUNS HAVE STARTED TRENDING MORE              
STABLE THIS EVENING. STILL CANT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING              
OVER THE HILLS...SO HAVE LEFT IN 10 POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION              
OF STORMS. REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET.                                 
TOMORROW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS EARLY IN THE              
MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON MUCH COOL AIR               
ADVECTION THERE IS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...HOW MUCH THE                
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND. EITHER WAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. FRIDAY               
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER                 
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES APPROACHES SLOWLY KEEPING DRY WEATHER                  
ACROSS THE CWA. 700 MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BRING TEMPS IN THE            
MID 80S TO AROUND 90.                                                           
EXTENDED...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES             
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION            
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE             
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO                 
AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH             
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH                 
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLACK               
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT              
WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY                           
MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING IFR CEILINGS FROM 10Z TO 14Z TO THE KRAP            
VICINITY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/RUDGE                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1100 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LIGHT              
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL                  
SHOWING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA BORDER SOUTH OF THE                  
HILLS...BUT WEAKENS TOWARD THE NORTHERN HILLS. RUC/NAM SHOW CAPE                
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VERY SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS TO THE HILLS IN CASE A STORM OR TWO CAN GET GOING. ALSO             
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS IN THE AREA BASED ON LATEST                
TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BAND OF AC HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO            
NE IN 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WELL SOUTH            
OF CWA. NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND                
TROUGH IN THE EAST.                                                             
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OVER              
THE CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME                      
CAPE/LITTLE CAP WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS FRONT                 
MOVES SOUTH...HOWEVER UPPER SUPPORT NOT PRESENT. WILL LEAVE FORECAST            
DRY FOR NOW.                                                                    
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH                 
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT               
THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION.              
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH WARMER              
READINGS FRIDAY.                                                                
EXTENDED...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL                
SLOWLY MOVE EASTERLY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR             
THE WEEKEND. A ROUND OF WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE               
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                  
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLACK               
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE             
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/RUDGE                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1110 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NEXT STRONG WAVE SEEN IN SRN MANITOBA SWINGING TOWARD NRN MN LATE               
MORNING...WITH STRONGLY CONFLUENT NW FLOW SET UP INTO CANADIAN                  
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO FAR NRN PLAINS.  SFC RIDGE STARTING TO SINK              
INTO CNTRL PLAINS...BUT OVERALL JUST A FINE MIXING DAY IN STORE                 
FOR AREA. WL SEE INCREASE IN CLDS...BUT FROM CU DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY...           
AND MORESO LATER IN AFTN AS MID LVL FRONTAL BAND ENHANCES TOWARD NRN            
CWA LTR IN DAY. ALL IN ALL...CHANGES IN SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL...               
BUT DID LOWER DWPTS QUITE A BIT AS LIMITED RAOB COVERAGE OVR                    
NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING DOES FAVOR MIXING TO LOWER NUMBERS...                   
WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE TO BETTER VERIFYING RUC NUMBERS IN THIS                    
PATTERN.                                                                        
MADE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR TONIGHT PD TO HIT THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL A BIT BETTER...ACRS MAINLY SW MN INTO                    
NW IA. DYNAMICS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A STRONG MID FRONTAL EVENT AS                 
JET ENTRANCE SLIDES OVR MID LVL BNDRY. 12Z GFS...DESPITE PRODUCING              
LITTLE OR NO PCPN...DOES EVEN FEATURE SIMILAR DYNAMICS...IF ONLY                
3H QUICKER OR SO. WL FURTHER ANALYZE SETUP FOR TONIGHT WITH AFTN                
PACKAGE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT             
SHRA WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA MAINLY NE OF A LINE FROM KHON TO KSUX              
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z...WITH ONLY A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLD MVFR                    
CIGS/VSBYS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LIGHTER WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER              
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE DISCREPANCY               
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS INITIALIZED                 
SIMILAR AND VERY WELL TO REALITY...BUT DIVERGE AS EARLY AS THIS                 
MORNING. NAM IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALOFT AND INTRODUCES                       
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER FORCING...WHICH EVENTUALLY PRODUCES                  
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST                 
WATERVAPOR IMAGERY...FAVORING THE GFS. THE GFS TRACKS A S/WV                    
CURRENTLY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHICH FOR THE             
FORECAST AREA MEANS WARMER ALOFT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                         
INSTABILITY...AND NO UPPER FORCING. THEREFORE NO MENTION OF POPS                
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT A FAIR             
AMOUNT OF CU AND STRATOCU DEVELOPING. ALSO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A             
FEW DEGREES...BOTH NAM AND GFS NOW SHOWING A LITTLE MORE WARMING                
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT... WHICH FULLY MIXED SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES             
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST AND MID TO UPPER 70S EAST.                           
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT                 
ALONG THERMAL BNDRY AND IN RR QUAD OF UPPER JET. FOLLOWED THE GFS IN            
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FROM AROUND BKX SEWRD INTO NW IA...ALTHOUGH                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS 20 OR 30 MILES FARTHER N OR S                
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. EXPECTING A FAIRLY NARROW AREA OF                  
PRECIP...AND AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...SO NO             
REAL RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED DRY PERIOD.                                         
BY THU MORNING...SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EWRD OUT OF THE CWA              
MAKING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE VERY                  
SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO              
THE AREA. OTHERWISE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR                     
SKIES.                                                                          
WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS              
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON                  
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS WEEKEND...SEEMED A LITTLE                       
OVERDONE...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREE C              
COOLER AT H85. THIS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S IN THE              
WEST TO UPPER 80S IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY. ALSO...NO REAL RETURN OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING INTO THE                  
WARMER AIR ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN VERY LOW WELL INTO NEXT             
WEEK.         LIEBL                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
845 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LINE OF TRW MOVG INTO CNTRL SD AHEAD OF CDFNT WL CONT TO TRACK ESEWD            
THRU THE EVE. LATEST RUC CONTS TO SHOW DECENT INSTABIL SHUD PERSIST             
AT LEAST INTO JAMES RVR VALLEY AHEAD OF FNT THRU 08Z. MAIN THREAT               
ACRS WRN CWA WL BE WND FM THESE STORMS...BUT LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE             
STABLE AFT 06Z WHICH MAY PREVENT SVR WNDS FM REACHING SFC AS IT                 
APPROACHES JAMES RVR VALLEY. HAVE UPPED POPS ACRS WRN CWA WITH THIS             
LINE AND MAY NEED TO UPDATE AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THIS LINE               
HOLDS TOGETHER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD. HOWEVER...ISOLD              
TO SCT TSRA LKLY TO DEVELOP ALG FRONTAL BNDRY TO W...AND MOVE RAPIDLY           
EWRD. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL WITH STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING KHON             
AREA 08Z-10Z.  SOME MVFR CLDS POTENTIALLY COULD DEVELOPING WITHIN               
STRONG CAA AFT 14Z TUE...BUT EXPECT TO MIX TO VFR LATER IN MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO ERN CWA FM MN WL CONTINUE             
TO PULL EWRD EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW             
GRADUALLY FM W TO E OVER CWA. STILL DEALING WITH MODIFICATION OF                
WDSPREAD RAIN COOLED AIR ACRS NEBRASKA...AND MIXING OF DRIER                    
AIRSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF RIDGE AXIS IN SW MN AND NW IA. BOTH SPELL A             
DIMINISHED QUALITY TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TDA. ENOUGH CAPPED                
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME MODEST CU TO N.   MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT             
DRIVEN BY OMINOUS WAVE IN SRN ALBERTA/SASK...WITH ANALYSIS OF SUB               
-20C AIR AT 500 HPA. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACRS ERN MT...AND                     
PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BNDRY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS THE                   
PRIMARY CHALLENGE.                                                              
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CERTAIN TO BE TIED TO BNDRY...WHICH TIMES OUT            
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU CWA...AND PROBABLY NOT MORE THAN A COUPLE            
HOURS THREAT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. AIRMASS TO E DID NOT GET                   
APPRECIABLY DESTABLILIZED AND WL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT EVEN                
ALFT...SO SYSTEMS WL DRAG IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT MORE HEADING EWRD               
LATE TONIGHT. SEEMS THERE WL BE A COUPLE OF MODES TO  CONVECTION...             
THAT DEEPER DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN BY UPR SYSTEM PUSHING THRU NRN MN                
WITH ATTENDANT TRAILING CDFNT...AND THEN SOME LLJ CONVERGENCE INTO              
BNDRY ACRS SCNTRL SD AREAS.  PRECIP SHUD BECOME MORE AND MORE TIED              
TO THESE TWO AREAS BY LATER TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO SW MN AND               
FAR SERN SD...AND MAY RESULT IN GAP IN PCPN ALG THE BNDRY. AN                   
ATTEMPT TO DEFINE IN MDLS BY DEFORMATION FIELD...WHICH APPEARS TO               
MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE FIELDS NR KFSD.  WITH CONVECTION TRENDING TO               
LINEAR SEGMENTS AND LKLY TO ORGANIZE STRONGER FRONT TO REAR                     
FLOW...EXPECT TO PRODUCE ACCELERATING COLD POOLS AND PREFER A BIT               
FASTER TAKE TO FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BNDRY THRU NIGHT. A BIT WEAKER MID               
LVL FLOW TOWARD SCNTRL LOOKS TO YIELD A HODOGRAPH THAT IS MORE IN               
FAVOR OF SLOWER MOTION...AND ANY ISOLD CELLS COULD BE MORE APT TO               
FAVOR SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS S CNTRL.                                       
WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WITH                   
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WILL HAVE ONLY LOW POPS IN FAR             
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 15Z...THEN DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT.                  
LIKELY WILL SEE A FEW CU BUILD IN DURING THE MORNING AND                        
AFTERNOON...THEN THINGS SHOULD CLEAR UP AT NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE AT               
ALL SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS COME IN A TOUCH COOLER THAN GOING                    
FORECAST.                                                                       
SECONDARY WAVE WRAPS SOUTH INTO MAINLY MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING LOOK PRETTY GOOD            
BUT INSTABILITY MINIMAL SO ONLY LOW POPS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 FOR              
NOW.                                                                            
IN THE LATTER PERIODS(FRI-MON)...QUASI HUDSON BAY LOW AND STRONG                
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE            
FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING HARD TO TIME WAVES EXPECTED.              
MEN TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY GENERALLY             
A GOOD SIGN TO GO WARMER...AND WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW INDICATING MUCH             
WARMER SATURDAY...WILL SHOOT ABOVE GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME THE ONLY              
PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE FAR NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ONE OF THESE HARD TO TIME WEAK WAVES TRIES TO              
BUCKLE THE WEST COAST RIDGE. WILL SEE IF THIS REALLY COMES TO                   
FRUITION. OTHERWISE...PRETTY MUCH A ZERO TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE MOST              
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1057 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE MCS IN NE NM HAS SHOWN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT THE PAST                     
HR...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SE DEVELOPMENT INTO CURRY COUNTY NM.               
THE LATEST RUC CORFIDI VECTOR FCST SHOWS THAT THE COMPLEX MAY BE                
ABLE TO PROPAGATE SE INTO THE EXTREME SW PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS                 
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. THUS WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHEST POPS                
IN OUR NW COUNTIES OF OUR FA BUT HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY FROM THE            
CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WED MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN                 
WOULD BE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES MAY                 
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE NRN COUNTIES IN THE                   
MORNING...SO HAVE HELD ONTO LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND               
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        65  89  65  93  66 /  50  20  20  10  30                          
TULIA         65  91  66  94  69 /  30  20  20  10  30                          
PLAINVIEW     68  91  68  95  69 /  30  20  20  10  20                          
LEVELLAND     68  92  69  95  70 /  30  30  10  10  20                          
LUBBOCK       70  91  71  95  71 /  20  30  10  10  20                          
BROWNFIELD    69  90  70  96  71 /  20  30  10  10  20                          
CHILDRESS     71  89  71  97  73 /  20  30  20  10  20                          
SPUR          70  91  72  96  73 /  20  30  20  10  20                          
ASPERMONT     72  92  73  98  75 /  10  30  20  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
148 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET THE STAGE FOR            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY.                   
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER               
HIGH SHEAR...LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                                
RAIN BAND WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN ENHANCING NOW OVER PARTS OF                
WV AND ERN KY AT THIS TIME AND LOOK AS IF THEY WILL CONTINUE THE                
ENE MOVEMENT...EXITING THE REGION BY 18Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD                 
ARRIVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 20Z AND EXIT THE MOUNTAINS                   
AROUND 2Z. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINING WILL BE CAN THE SECOND BAND               
OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT FORM THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND               
THE RUC SHOW GOOD LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE               
IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF               
THE FRONT. BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME ALLOWING A                 
LITTLE HEATING BETWEEN THE RAIN BAND OVER THE REGION NOW AND THE                
FRONT ARRIVING. SO HAVE HELD ON THE SECOND BAND OF RAIN BETWEEN                 
17Z AND 23Z. HAVE LEFT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE AS THE RAIN               
SHOULD HOLD VALUES DOWN...BUT SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON IS                   
EXPECTED.                                                                       
FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A QUICK CLEARING AFTER THE FRONT...SO                  
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD BIT OF FOG TONIGHT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                          
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO POPS...WIND...AND TEMPS WITH THE APPROACHING               
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.                                                           
NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE              
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...BRINGING THE FIRST BATCH OF QPF ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 12Z....AND THEN SPREADING EAST            
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRI EVENING.                                     
THE NAM SHOWS A HIGH SHEAR...LOW BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG               
DEEP SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS...AND HELICITY GREATER THAN                
300 M^2/S^2 FRI AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS NOTICEABLE IN BL                     
CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 18Z...MOVING EAST THRU              
THE REST OF THE AREA THRU 00Z SAT. HUMIDITY LOOKS DESCENT FOR                   
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE                
FRONT. CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 200 J/KG.                                 
THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY                
NIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MAV TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE LOOKED               
REASONABLE. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE...DEWPOINTS ONLY            
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...AND LOWLAND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 80S.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WEAK DIFFUSE WASHING-OUT FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CWA SUNDAY. I ONLY HAVE VERY              
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/COALFIELDS WITH ABSENCE OF             
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LEFT THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.                            
WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...I HAVE FAIR                   
CONFIDENCE IN BIG PICTURE...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES            
AND SOUTHERN CANADA FLATTENING AND LIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS              
TAKES OUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHILE RIDGE AXIS                     
ESTABLISHES FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SLOWLY EDGES            
DEEPER INTO OUR REGION. HPC GRIDS GENERALLY ACCEPTED...WITH WARMING             
TREND TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN LOWLANDS BY MIDWEEK. THIS TYPICAL                 
SUMMERTIME SET UP SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL                    
CONVECTION...THUS CHANCE POPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK FINE.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
AREA OF SOLID RAIN SHOWERS IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN                    
MOUNTAIN SITES WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.  THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD             
EXIT THAT AREA BY 19Z.  TO THE WEST...MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
ARE FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR HLG TO                
NEAR LEX.  THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.              
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER SUPPORT ACROSS NRN WV...THE LINE OF SHOWERS                
SHOULD SOLIDIFY...WHILE FURTHER SHOWERS LOOK MORE SCATTERED ALONG               
THE LINE.  EXPECT BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE SKY CLEARING...MOISTURE LADEN LOW                        
LEVELS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR            
CONDITIONS.  THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z AND WITH HIGH              
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.                                               
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...26                                                                   
NEAR TERM...ESS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ARJ                                                                
LONG TERM...MDP                                                                 
AVIATION...ESS                                                                  
</pre> wv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
1134 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED               
NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH A WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES               
PINWHEELING AROUND THE PARENT LOW. REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS INDICATED                 
DECENT POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES              
WITH 500MB TEMPS OF -21C NOTED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND -16C                
AT MINNEAPOLIS. LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW HAS IMPORTED MUCH DRIER DWPTS               
INTO THE REGION...GNERLLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.                        
CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWER POTENTIAL AS VIS IMAGERY AT                
16Z SHOWING SCT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER WI. CLUSTER OF                    
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING INVOF INTERNATIONAL FALLS IN REGION                
OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER S/W. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE DECENT HANDLE               
ON SITUATION...AND KEEPS BEST UPPER FORCING/INSTABILITY OVER NRN                
WI. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT FROM LOCAL 4KM MESOSCALE                     
MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW WEAK ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NRN                  
PORTIONS OF CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH ABOUT 100-300 J/KG OF CAPE. WILL              
KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY THERE...WITH DRY                    
CONDITIONS SOUTH.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING POPS IN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED               
NW UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW THEN ON TIMING OF WAA REGIME IN WEEKEND/EARLY            
NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.                                                           
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS STG VORT MAX PULLING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH                 
CANADA WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVG SEWD ON THE WRN SIDE OF BROADER               
UPR TROUGH. THIS WAVE PRODUCED SOME SCT TSRA ACRS NRN MN AND PROGS              
BRING AN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE ACRS THEW CWA LATER TODAY AND                
THIS EVE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE FAVORABLE INSTAB ACRS THE NRN              
CWA THAN THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. SPC WRF RUN SHOWS SHRA                        
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ACRS NRN CWA AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE                  
HRS. LOCAL WRF RUN OFF THE GFS ALSO BEARS THIS OUT...SO WILL HAVE               
SLGT CHCS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTN AND ACRS NE 1/2 OR SO THIS                     
EVENING AS VORT COMES ACRS.                                                     
SHARPER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...PIVOTS                
ACRS ON THURSDAY WITH GUID POPS A LITTLE MORE EXCITED ABOUT THIS                
WAVE. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY          
FOR THIS WAVE TO WORK WITH...SO MEDIUM CHC POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE.               
GFS IS THE OUTLIER HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERLY PROGRESSIVE                
LOOK TO UPPER TROUGH AND STG PUSH OF WAA. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE                 
SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS. BOTH                
OF THESE SOLUTIONS BRING ANOTHER SFC TROUGH THRU SO GOING POPS FOR              
SATURDAY STILL LOOK OK. A LULL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK SFC                  
HIGH SLIDES ACRS. GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THE WEEKEND WARMUP BUT              
APPEARS INEVITABLE WE WILL WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 00Z                   
ECMWF SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF HIGHER 1000-500MB THICKNESS IN               
THE SUN NGT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.                                                  
10                                                                              
AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN VFR               
VSBYS.  CU SHOULD FORM LATE THIS MORNING.  COLD UPPER TROUGH TO                 
BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR               
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF MKE AND MSN INTO THE             
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY VFR CIGS.                                          
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
400 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING POPS IN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED              
NW UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW THEN ON TIMING OF WAA REGIME IN WEEKEND/EARLY            
NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.                                                           
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS STG VORT MAX PULLING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH                 
CANADA WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVG SEWD ON THE WRN SIDE OF BROADER               
UPR TROUGH. THIS WAVE PRODUCED SOME SCT TSRA ACRS NRN MN AND PROGS              
BRING AN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE ACRS THEW CWA LATER TODAY AND                
THIS EVE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE FAVORABLE INSTAB ACRS THE NRN              
CWA THAN THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. SPC WRF RUN SHOWS SHRA                        
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ACRS NRN CWA AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVE                  
HRS. LOCAL WRF RUN OFF THE GFS ALSO BEARS THIS OUT...SO WILL HAVE               
SLGT CHCS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTN AND ACRS NE 1/2 OR SO THIS                     
EVENING AS VORT COMES ACRS.                                                     
SHARPER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...PIVOTS                
ACRS ON THURSDAY WITH GUID POPS A LITTLE MORE EXCITED ABOUT THIS                
WAVE. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY          
FOR THIS WAVE TO WORK WITH...SO MEDIUM CHC POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE.               
GFS IS THE OUTLIER HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERLY PROGRESSIVE                
LOOK TO UPPER TROUGH AND STG PUSH OF WAA. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE                 
SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS. BOTH                
OF THESE SOLUTIONS BRING ANOTHER SFC TROUGH THRU SO GOING POPS FOR              
SATURDAY STILL LOOK OK. A LULL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK SFC                  
HIGH SLIDES ACRS. GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THE WEEKEND WARMUP BUT              
APPEARS INEVITABLE WE WILL WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 00Z                   
ECMWF SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF HIGHER 1000-500MB THICKNESS IN               
THE SUN NGT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.                                                  
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN VFR              
VSBYS.  CU SHOULD FORM LATE THIS MORNING.  COLD UPPER TROUGH TO                 
BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR               
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF MKE AND MSN INTO THE             
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY VFR CIGS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
402 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY/THIS EVE.                   
WATER VAPOR/RUC DATA SHOWS NICE CIRCULATION/34 UNIT VORT CENTER                 
VCNTY NE NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE AND MUCH OF THE DCVA                        
ASSOCIATID WITH IT PROGGD TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY AND                  
THIS EVE. UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF WAVE ALSO STAYS TO OUR NORTH               
WITH SOME RRQ DVRG ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN/THIS EVE. THE LOWER                    
LEVELS LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH PLENTY OF MLCAPE...AROUND              
1500 J/KG...SFC TO 3KM CAPE WHICH EXCEEDS 150 J/KG. GFS DEW POINTS              
INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY BUT                   
LEANING TOWARDS MORE CONVERVATIVE VALUES USING AN AMALGAM OF MOS                
DATA...WHICH PUTS DEW POINTS NEAR 70. 0-1KM SHEAR PROGGD TO BE                  
NEAR 15KTS WHILE THE 0-6 SHEAR INCREASES FROM 20-25 KNOTS TO 30-35              
KNOTS THIS AFTN. NEITHER OF THESE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT NOT BAD. FRONTAL      
TIMING IS QUITE FAVORABLE WITH A PRETTY SHARP H8/SFC FRONT COMING               
THROUGH AT PRIME TIME. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RANDOM              
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOIST/UNSTBL AMS THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A                 
LINEARS MCS AS THE MAIN FRONT APPCHS DURG THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WILL                
LINGER LIKELY POPS INTO SE CWA ERLY THIS EVE AND THEN DRY THINGS                
OUT. WHILE GUID POPS ARE MORE IN CHC CATEGORY...THE GOING LIKELY                
POPS ARE HARD TO SCOFF AT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTAB/LOW LEVEL FORCING              
AND TIMING OF FROPA. HAVE BEEN ON THE FENCE ON MENTIONING SVR.                  
DESPITE SOME OF THE NEGATIVES WRT UPPER JET POSITIONING AND VERY                
NORTHERLY TRACK OF H5 VORT CENTER...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME                     
INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW THIS AFTN AND WITH MESOSCALE MODELS                  
HINTING AT WHIPPING A SQUALL LINE/LINEAR MCS THROUGH SRN WI THIS                
AFTN/EVE...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SVR WORDING. SPC ALSO HAS                  
PRETTY HIGH WIND PERCENTAGES ON SWODY1.                                         
DRIER NW FLO FOR WED WITH MAIN STORY BEING THE COOLER AND DRIER                 
REGIME. UPPER CYCLONIC LOOK TO H5 WITH SHEARED VORT NORTH OF CWA.               
MINIMAL CAPE CAPPED BY MID LEVEL INVERSION.                                     
WILL KEY ON THU TIME FRAME FOR NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WITH SPOKE OF              
ENERGY ROTATING THRU.                                                           
00Z ECMWF SHOWS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REMAIN CYCLONIC                   
INTO SATURDAY WHILE 00Z GFS INDICATES MORE PROGRESSION TO THE                   
UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRI DRY AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT                
CWA MAY BE IN A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES. WILL THEN GO WITH ECMWF IDEA               
OF ANOTHER SPOKE COMING THRU FOR SATURDAY WITH A SLGT CHC THEN.                 
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR F WITH PATCHY IFR F MAINLY UNTIL 13-14Z.              
THEN WITH HEATING CU SHOULD FORM ARND 16Z.  NAM HAS CAPES RAISING TO            
AROUND 3000J/KG BY EARLY AFTN.  WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING             
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SEEMS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                
DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FROPA TIMING DURING AND                
JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
342 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                            
PLACED THE MOST EMPHASIS ON DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE AND STRONG SFC COLD               
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND ATTENDANT RAIN/SEVERE                
WEATHER CHANCES. ALSO OF CONCERN IS GENERAL EVOLUTION OF HIGHLY                 
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH REST              
OF WORK WEEK.                                                                   
CURRENTLY...GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWING VERY CLEARLY THE                     
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID JULY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE                    
CATALYST FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE...MOVING ALONG THE INTL BORDER OF               
ND/CANADA. GREAT FALLS MT /KTFX/ 10.00Z RAOB AND ACARS DATA ACROSS              
NRN MONTANA CAPTURED THE 50-60KT 500MB FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE                  
TROUGH...WITH RUC/WRF ANALYSIS OF JET LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE                   
OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS PEGGING 100+KTS OF FLOW EJECTING OUT INTO                
THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. AREA PROFILER NETWORK THIS                 
MORNING BEGINNING TO SHOW INFLUENCES OF THIS WAVE /2.0 TO 2.5                   
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/ AS FLOW                   
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND TURN SWLY AT WDLM5 /WOOD LAKE MN/ AND                 
BLRW3 /BLUE RIVER WI/. RADAR LOOPS SHOWED A DYING CONVECTIVE                    
COMPLEX RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT NOW ORGANIZING OVER                 
ERN SD WITH MATURING ISALLOBARIC COUPLET INDICATIVE OF THE                      
DEEPENING WAVE/S EFFECTS ON THE SFC PRESSURE FIELD. PLENTY OF                   
ANVIL/CIRRUS BLOWOFF DOWNSTREAM OVER MN/NWRN WI. WEAK MOISTURE                  
TRANSPORT AXIS INTO/OVER OLD BOUNDARY OVER NRN IL/SRN WI STILL                  
GENERATING MID CLOUD /ACCAS/ AND ISOLD SHRA FROM TIME TO TIME.                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT HEIGHT FALLS/SHORTWAVE TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO       
THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. DYING WRN MN CONVECTION MAY HOLD                  
SOME ORGANIZATION OWING MORE TO DYNAMICS THAN INSTABILITY...INTO                
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO CONCERNED THAT WEAKENING MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT SIGNAL OVER FAR SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA MAY              
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS...SO MAINTAINED LOW MORNING POPS ALL               
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO REACH MS RIVER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND        
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT BUILDING INSTABILITY FIELD /ALBEIT WEAK               
OWING TO POOR TIMING/ WITH ML CAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND INCREASING                  
DEEP LAYER ASCENT /QG/ OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL INITIATE                      
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT. EXPECT UPSCALE GROWTH AS LINE                 
PROGRESSES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR                   
EAST. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE                     
HAIL...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/ AND LIMITED OVERALL                    
INSTABILITY IN HAIL GROWTH REGION OF SOUNDING. SEE BETTER OVERALL               
THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND EVENTS AS LINE OF CONVECTION MATURES              
AND TAPS STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MOVING IN ON AFOREMENTIONED                 
WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC/SREF ENSEMBLES POINT TO MUCH               
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF WIND EVENT TO OUR EAST...AND EVEN SOME                  
QUESTION ON HOW CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACTUALLY BE GIVEN                  
PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF AREA...AND WEST-SWLY              
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST INSTABILITY /GRANT COUNTY WI/ TO LIE              
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM DEEPER SHEAR /NRN WISC/ SO JUST NOT COMING                
TOGETHER LIKE IT WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF HERE. MAINTAINED A SHARP                
AFTERNOON GRADIENT IN POPS FROM VERY LITTLE CHANCE /WEST/ TO                    
LIKELY /FAR EAST/.                                                              
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...BIG DROP IN PRECIPITABLE                           
WATERS/DEWPOINTS AS VERY UN-JULY-LIKE PATTERN MOVES IN AS NERN                  
CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WED-FRIDAY WHICH                
DEPICT OVERALL COOLING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                       
SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS FROM 9C-13C OVER FORECAST AREA. WATCHING              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH                
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                                 
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. DYNAMICS WEAK...AND                  
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER                
THAN LOW /SCATTERED/ POPS RIGHT NOW.                                            
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
BEGINNING TO SEE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS /BOTH               
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC/ ON SHAPE/ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH-                 
RIDGE-TROUGH LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN                 
ATLANTIC. WHILE THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE                   
POSITION OF THE MAJOR TROUGH/RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN                                 
GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET...THE AMPLITUDE COMES INTO QUESTION PARTICULARLY               
IN THE DOWNSTREAM/BACKSIDE PORTION OF THE HUGE WESTERN RIDGE AND                
HOW IT FLOWS INTO THE NERN CONUS TROUGH. DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS BY              
FAR THE MOST BULLISH IN LOSING MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER               
FLOW...ALLOWING NERN CONUS TROUGH TO SHIFT A BIT EAST AND ALLOW A               
SLUG OF HEAT TO COME ROLLING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE              
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST SAT/SUN/MON WITH TEMPERATURES BACK                  
TOWARD 90. ECMWF MAINTAINS A MUCH SHARPER AMPLITUDE AND MORE                    
NORTHERLY /MERIDIONAL/ FLOW WHICH MAINTAINS 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW              
TO MID TEENS /C/ SUGGESTING UPPER 70S/MID 80S TO MAINTAIN. GEFS                 
MEAN SUGGESTS DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS WAY TOO WARM...BUT WE SAW                  
THIS VERY SAME SCENARIO BEFORE THE MOST RECENT SPELL OF HEAT THIS PAST          
WEEKEND...WHICH OPNL GFS RUNS NAILED IN ADVANCE.                                
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WOULD SEEM SOMETHING WARMER THAN ECWMF SOLN                  
WILL VERIFY GIVEN HEADING TOWARD WARMEST WEEK OF THE YEAR                       
HISTORICALLY. PORTIONS OF EXTENDED FORECAST /SAT-MON/ MAY NEED                  
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN TEMPS IF GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT                  
WARMING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATER                  
MORNING AND NOON TIME BRINGING ONLY WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE                
FRONT AND EAST. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE              
FRONT AT TAF SITES...CONTINUED VCTS. A STRONG AND MORE CONTINUOUS               
LINE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM NRN WI TO KMLI BY                         
MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT HEADS EAST...WHICH WILL                
CAUSE E/W BOUND TRAFFIC ROUTING ISSUES THROUGH EVENING.                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD WWA SECTION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
342 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST             
THIS MORNING. 08Z SFC OBS SHOW A BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND            
LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT LOBE                    
ROTATING ACROSS MN WITHIN THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.                  
HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND A SFC WAVE REFLECTED IN THE OBS MUCH            
LESS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 08Z. MEANWHILE                    
CONVECTION FROM WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS FORMED OVER WESTERN KS              
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS DUE TO                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                                           
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS DECREASING. CONVECTION            
OUT WEST HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST AND UNLESS THERE IS NEW                  
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH...NOT SURE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE             
AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 08Z PROFILER AND VWP DATA ALSO                  
SUGGESTS THERE MAY EVEN BE A WEAK 850 BOUNDARY FROM SMITH CENTRAL TO            
EMPORIA WHICH MAY KEEP PRECIP TO THE SOUTHWEST. THEN THERE IS THE               
FRONT THAT IS SUPPOSE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY. MODELS HAVE                   
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND NOW                 
BRING IT INTO NORTHERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE 06Z NAM                 
STILL SHOWS A WIND SHIFT MOVING IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT             
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE                 
LOWER POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD. THINK CONVECTION OUT WEST IS             
LIKELY TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE             
THE 06Z RUC SHOWS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING THROUGH THE              
DAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BORDER             
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VCNTY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH               
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE                
FORECAST AREA TODAY...THINK THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOLAR                   
INSOLATION AND HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH                
MORE INSOLATION...THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE               
WITH CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT AREA ABLE TO DEVELOP                 
COULD RAPIDLY BECOME STRONG AND POTENTIAL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS                  
AND/OR HAIL. TONIGHT THE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING THE                
IDENTITY OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS               
THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND ANY POTENTIAL VORT MAX             
WITHIN THE FLOW.                                                                
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH FOR FRIDAY INTO THE                
WEEKEND. OPTED TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE NOT MADE               
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THUS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING ACROSS              
EASTERN KS FOR FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR IN PLACE. MODELS ARE              
SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE STATE                    
SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN BRINGING A SFC TROUGH               
TOWARDS THE KS/NEB STATE LINE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT             
FRONT AND HOW THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS ONE DOWN...DECIDED TO                 
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT               
UNTIL MESO SCALE DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. A WARMING TREND            
IN TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AS THICKNESSES INCREASE IN                 
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE. MEDIUM RANGE              
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BECOMING TRAPPED                 
WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEK. WITH            
THE MEAN WESTERLIES WELL NORTH...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN                
MECHANISMS FOR PRECIP SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.              
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
00Z NAM INDICATES ISENTROPIC RA/TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR MHK AROUND 15Z               
THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BE A BIT FAR EAST...BUT WITH CURRENT TRENDS              
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT EAST...STILL POSSIBLE FOR MHK OR VICINITY TO             
SEE RA/TSRA THIS MORNING. WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN WY SHOULD               
REORGANIZE ISENTROPIC RA/TSRA SOUTH OF TAF SITES DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOW TO                 
ENTER NE KS THIS EVENING...SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PRECIP IN              
TAFS 00-12Z FRI WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OR ONGOING                      
CONVECTION THAT WOULD DRIVE FRONT SOUTH VERY FAST. EXPECT VFR                   
CONDITIONS UNLESS PERSISTENT OR HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES OVER TAF SITES.            
CAVANAUGH                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
313 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS               
AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY THE               
RIDGE GETS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT FLOW TAKES ON A MORE NORTHERLY                  
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN            
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.                                              
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS.                                            
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS              
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO             
AND THE FIRST TIER OF WESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT                  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO DUE TO            
UPSLOPE AND ALSO ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST             
AREA. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN EASTERN COLORADO               
AND THE COUNTIES NEAR THE STATE LINE. EAST OF THERE SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. BY EVENING DYNAMICS APPEAR TO MOVE                   
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS            
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST 1 OR 2 ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL               
POPS ELSEWHERE.                                                                 
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER              
FLOW DURING THIS TIME BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. CONSEQUENTLY ANY                  
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TAKE A TRACK WHICH SHOULD CONFINE THEM TO              
THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. CURRENT GRIDS ALREADY HAVE THIS IN MIND             
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES AND NIL POPS            
EAST OF THE STATE LINE.                                                         
FLOW REMAINS NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY. A FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE NAM TO            
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MAX HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD            
FIRE ALONG THIS ADVANCING FRONT WITH GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS            
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z WITH NIL POPS                 
AFTER THAT TIME.                                                                
THE LATEST CONSIDERATION IS EXTENT AND DURATION OF STRATUS DECK                 
MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC INDICATES THAT               
THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE                  
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD LAYER MAY NOT BE THAT EXTENSIVE OVER THE               
WEST. PLAN TO MONITOR AND MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES.                             
850MB TEMPERATURES HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN                  
INCREASE OF A FEW DEGREES BY SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN            
THE MID 80S TODAY/FRIDAY AND THEN WARM TO NEAR 90 ON SATURDAY. MIN              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR AROUND 60.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE                
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BRING ISOLATED               
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF TWEB ROUTE 314 UNTIL            
ABOUT 10Z OR 11Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR                           
CONDITIONS...BKN-OVC 020-030 HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THESE EXITING                        
THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE WINDS AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT            
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AREAS OF LOWER CLOUD DECKS DOWN TO                 
BKN-OVC010 FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 15Z...AFTER WHICH SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO            
SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.                                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS/BLM                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
305 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AREAL EXTENT/PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                            
AT EARLY MORNING...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/DEVELOPING MCS WAS ONGOING                
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE               
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH DIFFERED ON AREAL PLACEMENT AND            
TRACK. LATEST RUC MAY HAVE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM...BASED ON             
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...TAKING COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY WANE BY             
LATE MORNING...EXPECT SOME FESTERING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND                   
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL STUNT DIURNAL            
TEMPERATURE RISE...SO HAVE CUT MAXS DOWN A BIT THERE. BETTER CHANCES            
FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS            
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT            
THIS TO BE THE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. A VERY UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH COULD AFFECT CENTRAL OR             
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HIGH               
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR HEAVY                 
RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED            
IN TIME...WITH BARTON COUNTY ADDED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS             
A BIT HIGHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE BEARISH ON THE DRIER               
AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS                
STILL SUPPORTS DWINDLING OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON               
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL LET                 
DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER GANDER AT NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY                
NEEDED TWEAKS TO WEEKEND FORECAST.                                              
NO CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE: ALTO CUMULUS CONTINUES INCREASE ACROSS THE                
AREA AT THIS TIME...AS LIFT ALONG THE 315K ISENTROPIC LAYER                     
CONTINUES. THIS LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP               
TO THE WEST OF KHUT/KRSL AFTER 09Z. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL                
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z. SO HAVE                   
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN STARTING AFTER 09Z.                      
ITS AFTER 12Z WHEN CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS WARM                   
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL             
LEAD TO CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.              
SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WILL            
ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS INCREASED TSRA             
IN THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING.                                 
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  84  65 /  60  60  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      83  65  85  64 /  70  60  20  10                                
NEWTON          82  65  85  64 /  60  50  20  10                                
ELDORADO        82  66  84  65 /  60  50  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  67  83  66 /  60  60  30  10                                
RUSSELL         84  64  86  64 /  50  40  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      83  65  86  64 /  60  50  10  10                                
SALINA          85  65  87  64 /  50  40  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       83  65  86  64 /  60  50  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     82  65  84  64 /  60  50  30  10                                
CHANUTE         83  64  84  63 /  60  50  20  10                                
IOLA            83  64  85  63 /  50  40  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    83  65  84  64 /  60  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ047-050>053-                      
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
454 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR JULY...WITH RIDGING                  
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A LARGE               
UPPER TROUGH COVERING HUDSON BAY...ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHRTWVS OF                  
INTEREST. THE FIRST SHRTWV...LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...             
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND               
-20C AT 500MB PER 00Z SOUNDING FROM SAW) TO GENERATE THE SCATTERED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED INTO LAST EVENING. SKIES HAVE                
TEMPORARILY CLEARED OVER THE CWA WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND               
THE MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE SHRTWV. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW            
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE ARE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING THROUGH FAR WESTERN                    
ONTARIO. 00Z CWPL SOUNDING...WHICH WOULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE                     
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CORE OF THE SHRTWV...HAD A 500MB TEMP AROUND -21C            
AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500MB.                  
FARTHER UPSTREAM IS A SHRTWV OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE                    
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS IS POISED TO COME DOWN INTO THE AREA FRI            
INTO SAT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND FRI NIGHT.                    
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER FAR WESTERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA             
AROUND 18Z...THEN MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z. DPVA AHEAD OF THE            
SHRTWV...DIURNAL HEATING THAT OCCURS THROUGH ANY HOLES IN THE                   
CLOUDS...AND 800-900MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS SHOULD RESULT IN             
MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVING SOME SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE                 
MOIST AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE W TO NW WINDS AROUND THE               
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE AREAS TO RECEIVE A BIT              
MORE RAIN. PCPN MAY TRY TO TAPER OFF IN THE WESTERN U.P. LATE...                
THOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ONE MORE WEAK SHRTWV FOLLOWING                  
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN ONE THAT CROSSES TODAY. THIS                
SHRTWV DROPS DOWN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z...AND GIVEN THE             
MOIST PROFILE AROUND...A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD GENERATE.                       
THEREFORE...BEST POPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV...BUT CHANCE            
POPS CONTINUE EVEN AFTER THE FIRST SHRTWV PASSES. THUNDERSTORM                  
PROBABILITIES REMAIN SMALL ATTM WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THE                 
SOUTHERN U.P. HAVING THE MOST CAPE...WHICH IS WEAK AT THAT (AROUND              
200 J/KG). FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT. WOULD EXPECT HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM              
UNDER THE SHRTWV TROUGH...WHICH RANGED FROM 58 AT ISLAND LAKE                   
AIRPORT MANITOBA (VERY LITTLE SUN) TO 65 AT TROUT LAKE ONTARIO (MORE            
SUN). THIS IS NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS WE COULD TIE OR               
BREAK THE ALL-TIME LOW OF 59 HERE AT THE OFFICE. TO DO THIS...                  
THOUGH...WE MUST STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY...WITH RAIN COMING THROUGH                 
FREQUENTLY TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DOWN.                                        
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP IN A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE            
EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOR ANY               
DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THOSE GENERATED BY THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING                    
THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHRTWV...MODELS SHOW UPPER AND                 
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHRTWV IN              
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DIGGING INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. THESE                  
RIDGES SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR SKIES OUT...AND WITH DIMINISHING                    
WIND...ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...HAVE             
DECIDED TO INSERT PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P..              
FRI...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SHRTWV TROUGH IN                 
CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 12Z REACHING FAR WESTERN ONTARIO AT 00Z...WITH A            
1003MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ISENTROPIC LIFTING DEPICTED              
FROM THE 300-305K SURFACES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHERE             
THIS LIFTING OCCURS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW                         
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN THE WESTERN CWA               
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE              
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE                      
SHRTWV...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. OVERALL DRY AIR WITHIN THE RIDGE               
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS                 
RISING TO 6-8C BY 18Z (COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL 4-6C AT                
06Z)...LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S.               
FRI NIGHT...SHRTWV CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER                  
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...REACHING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z. THE               
SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHRTWV ALSO DEEPENS A FEW MORE MB.                 
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FORCING MECHANISMS AT WORK THAT CAN            
GENERATE PCPN OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST IS DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV                  
DROPPING SOUTH. THE SECOND IS A DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION                
(900-600MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT/ISENTROPIC LIFT                      
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THE THIRD IS A BAND OF 900-700MB FRONTOGENESIS            
THAT SLIDES SOUTH ON A COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE                
SURFACE LOW. GIVEN ALL THESE MECHANISMS...AND THE FACT THAT MET AND             
MAV GUIDANCE POPS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80...HAVE RAISED POPS TO               
CATEGORICAL. COULD BE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AXIS OF 1.25            
PRECIPITABLE WATER ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON A 50 KT 850MB JET. LOOKS            
LIKE PCPN MAY TAPER OFF LATE IN THE WEST AS DPVA AND FRONTOGENESIS              
MOVE AWAY. GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT              
OF WIND...ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT              
DROP LOWER THAN THE LOW TO MID 50S.                                             
SAT...SHRTWV OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE E...                 
REACHING ALMOST THE QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN DNVA              
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND THUS ALLOWING ANY SHOWERS TO EXIT THE                
AREA IN THE MORNING. CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH                
850MB TEMPS AROUND 8C SHOULD ALLOW AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO             
CLIMB INTO THE 70S AGAIN.                                                       
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UKMET/GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE MEAN UPPER               
TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY START TO                    
DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ONE MORE              
WEAK SHRTWV MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT OUT OF NW                        
ONTARIO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DIURNAL                
MINIMUM...WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANY SHOWERS. THERE COULD            
BE SOME COMING OFF NW ONTARIO ONTO ISLE ROYALE IN THE EVENING...BUT             
RIGHT NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT IN THE GRIDS. A SURFACE               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN ON SUN...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY             
SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION (LIKE THAT SEEN FRI NIGHT) WILL KEEP THE             
AREA DRY. IT DOES APPEAR...THOUGH...THAT SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION             
MAY OCCUR SUN NIGHT...THUS GOING -TSRA CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE.                 
CLEARING SAT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO             
FRI NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING IN ON SUN (850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C) WILL             
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WARMEST ALONG THE              
WI BORDER.                                                                      
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK               
MIGHT BE A BIT ACTIVE...BUT THEN HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED            
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MID-WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE               
WESTERN RIDGE ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. NEXT                   
DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING S TOWARD NE MN AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE               
ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME                   
HEATING GENERATING SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD -SHRA            
COVERAGE BEGINNING MID/LATE MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT               
THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING            
CAN OCCUR IN THE MORNING HRS. IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD               
MORE LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KSAW THAN KCMX. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW            
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...HAVE LEFT OUT AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF            
TSRA AND ONLY INCLUDED CB CLOUD GROUP AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...PER OBS              
IN VCNTY OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...EXPECT HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO            
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND THEN TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.                    
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE AFTN AS               
DISTURBANCE PASSES SE OF UPPER MI.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...UP TO 20 KT...PERSIST AS A HIGH PRES                  
CENTER SLIDES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY             
AND LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SLOWLY EDGES TO THE NORTH. A NEW               
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY                 
NIGHT WILL DIVE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND              
COULD REACH 15 TO 20 KT BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE PREVAILING W/NW              
DIRECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVR THE GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
128 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT)...                                              
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS PCPN TREND.                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF FOR JULY OVER             
SE CANADA...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY. 500MB             
HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO            
THE LONG TERM AVG FOR JULY. SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE WRN LAKES               
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING. SHRA ARE GRADUALLY WINDING             
DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SUPPORT NOW                   
SHIFTING E OF THE FCST AREA.                                                    
GIVEN THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND OF SHRA NOTED ON KMQT RADAR                    
IMAGERY...OPTED TO LINGER ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE ERN HALF OR SO OF THE            
FCST AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HRS PAST MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHRA ARE STILL               
ROTATING SE THRU NE MN...BUT BELIEVE THESE SHRA SHOULD DISSIPATE                
BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL.                   
OTHERWISE...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING S ALONG MANITOBA/ONTARIO                 
BORDER. EXPECT FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE THU MORNING...             
SO WILL CONFINE OVERNIGHT PCPN MENTION TO JUST WRN LAKE SUPERIOR                
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT)...                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPR LEVEL AND SFC LOWS OVR JAMES BAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT INTO UPR                
GREAT LAKES. H5 TEMPS TOWARD -20C YIELDING H9-H7 LAPSE RATES 7.0C/KM            
AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN 60S ALLOWED CU TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS              
THIS AFTN. COVERAGE IS MOST CONCENTRATED OVR SW HALF OF UPR MI. MOST            
SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING               
STRIKES OVR UPR MI THUS FAR. MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SO FAR IS               
OVR NORTHERN MN CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
SHORTWAVE OVR SOUTHERN MANITOBA DRIFTS ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING AND              
EXITS BY MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER COVERAGE TO INCREASE                   
MARKEDLY AS ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE IS OUT OF STEP WITH PEAK HEATING               
AND MLCAPES OVR UPR MI BARELY REACHING 500J/KG. DRYING TREND                    
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND. ATTN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE              
OVR NORTHERN MANITOBA THAT DIVES INTO LK SUPERIOR REGION LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO THU. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD                   
COMBINE WITH HEATING TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. MLCAPES USING A                  
DEWPOINT IN THE MID 40S RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF CAPE. LOW               
FREEZING LEVELS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...MOST LIKELY JUST                
GRAUPEL. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER THOUGH. POOL OF COOL AIR AT                    
H85/PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS MAXES INLAND TO THE MID 60S WHILE            
LK SUPERIOR BORDERING AREAS AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN             
OF THE NORTH WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60.                                         
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT)...                  
THU NIGHT...THE UKMET/GFS AND NAM WERE CONSISTENT WITH QVECTOR DIV              
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.            
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO              
EXIT OR DISSIPATE EARLY. AS THE SFC RDG AND LIGHT ACYC FLOW DEVELOPS            
EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID            
40S INLAND.                                                                     
FRI INTO SAT...MDLS WERE ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE                  
TIMING OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER-LIKE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT. FOCUS OF 700-300 QVECTOR                       
CONV WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF 300K-305 ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST              
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.               
THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA WITH A 50-55 KT 800 MB INFLOW AND GFS                   
SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR ZERO SUPPORTS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED             
TSRA. MOST OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY SAT WITH SOME                   
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. COMPROMISE TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF (850 MB                
TEMPS NEAR 8C-10C) COMPARED TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER GFS (850 MB             
TEMPS AROUND 5C) SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE 70S WITH COOLER READINGS IN            
AREAS DOWNWIND OF NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                 
SUN-WED...MDLS SHOW TRANSITION TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN.                
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH DETAILS OF POSITION/TIMING OF                
SHORTWAVES THAT WOULD LEAD TO PERIOD PCPN CHANCES. SHRA/TSRA                    
POTENTIAL REMAINS FROM SUN INTO EARLY MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WAA             
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SIMILAR TO THE FRI NIGHT PCPN SCENARIO.                       
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BY TUE/WED REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE             
LONG WAVE PATTERN...PER ECMWF AND GFS. SO...PCPN CHANCES CANNOT BE              
RULED OUT GIVEN CONTINUED ACTIVE WNW OR NW FLOW THROUGH THE REGION.             
HOWEVER...TEMPS GENERALLY SHOULD CLIMB CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                             
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. NEXT                   
DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING S TOWARD NE MN AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE               
ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME                   
HEATING GENERATING SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD -SHRA            
COVERAGE BEGINNING MID/LATE MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT               
THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEATING            
CAN OCCUR IN THE MORNING HRS. IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD               
MORE LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KSAW THAN KCMX. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW            
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...HAVE LEFT OUT AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF            
TSRA AND ONLY INCLUDED CB CLOUD GROUP AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...PER OBS              
IN VCNTY OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...EXPECT HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO            
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND THEN TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY.                    
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE AFTN AS               
DISTURBANCE PASSES SE OF UPPER MI.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...PERSIST AS A HIGH PRES                  
CENTER SLIDES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY             
AND LOW OVR JAMES BAY SLOWLY EDGES TO THE NORTH. A NEW AREA OF LOW              
PRESSURE...LOOKING KIND OF STRONG AT THIS POINT...DIVES INTO LK                 
SUPERIOR REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH              
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND COULD REACH 25-30 KT BEFORE VEERING BACK              
TO THE PREVAILING W/NW DIRECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE OVR THE GREAT               
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                       
SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLA                                                         
LONG TERM..JLB                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
448 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                     
DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES           
CAME IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...SO STUCK WITH THE GUIDANCE. BREAKS             
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE MOST OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE                
LOWER 90S FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO                  
CONTINUE...SO LOWER 90S WERE GOOD. STUCK WITH WARMER LOWS...THE EAST            
MAY COOL OFF A LITTLE MORE...BUT LOWER 70S WERE GOOD ACROSS THE CWA.            
POPS WERE ALSO GOOD...TWEAKED UP IN A FEW SPOTS. THE MODELS SEEM MORE           
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO USED A BLEND OF THE               
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE ISOLATED SEVERE                          
WORDING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH            
THE SOUTH WITH A BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. ANYWAY...THE UPPER           
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BY           
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY SINKS DOWN INTO THE              
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY                
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RUC SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST                  
ARKANSAS AND SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. THERE WAS ALSO GOOD THETA E               
VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY FROM                  
EARLIER HAS STALLED. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD                            
INSTABILITY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES BY THE AFTERNOON.             
WINDS AROUND 850MB DID NOT LOOK AS GOOD...BUT WINDS WERE STILL                  
AROUND 15KTS. ACTIVITY SEEMS TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING...BUT GETS             
STARTED EARLY IN THE MORNING. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE VALUES FOR                    
TODAY...BUT RAISED VALUES TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. WILL ALSO                
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR FRIDAY ALSO...WITH ANOTHER             
WAVE DROPPING IN BY THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PW VALUES STAY AROUND 2                 
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE ALSO               
GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER FLOW BECOMES W/SWLY BY THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE THAT              
DIGS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE            
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THE REMNANTS OF              
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BUT WEAK SURFACE CYCLONIC              
FLOW IS INDICATED ALONG SRN ZONES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO              
INCREASE WITH AREAS OF 25-30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS BY 00Z SUNDAY.               
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER TX SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING IS             
REDUCED ERN ZONES WHERE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO EDGE WWD.                
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE                  
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUES BUT UPPER              
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON             
THE WRN FRINGES OF DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING MONDAY THROUGH                      
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TX LOW COMPARED TO                
PREVIOUS RUNS...DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO TX WHILE HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE                        
ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING            
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL               
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO 2SM OR LESS             
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN IN THE 18-04Z                          
PERIOD...STARTING AROUND GLH/GWO AND MOVING INTO JAN/MEI IN THE LATE            
AFTERNOON. WITH A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF HBG...WILL GO WITH TSRA/SHRA                
AROUND 18Z FOR STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY. MAY ADD PATCHY FOG TO MOST              
SITES AFTER 6Z.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       93  73  92  70 /  25  26  55  32                                  
MERIDIAN      93  71  90  69 /  16  22  61  43                                  
VICKSBURG     95  73  92  72 /  28  25  56  26                                  
HATTIESBURG   93  72  92  71 /  25  16  56  42                                  
NATCHEZ       93  72  91  70 /  34  18  56  28                                  
GREENVILLE    94  70  92  72 /  29  43  56  26                                  
GREENWOOD     92  71  89  71 /  25  44  57  27                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/03                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
349 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE            
CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DEEP TROF                 
OVER THE EAST.  THE MIDWEST IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO               
THE REGION.  RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A 30-40KT LLJ FEEDING MOISTURE             
INTO THE PLAINS AND SOME MOISTURE HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL            
AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS EVIDENCED BY MID              
CLOUDS WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER THESE AREAS.              
AM STILL NOT SURE THOUGH IF THERE`S GOING TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR             
MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM.  THE NAM...AND              
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER IOWA AND                
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE                   
CONVERGENCE ON THE LLJ AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE SURFACE COLD                 
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK            
THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE.  I THINK THE MCS WHICH IS CURRENTLY               
MOVING OVER PARTS OF KANSAS WILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FROM            
THE LLJ AND NOT ALLOW IT INTO OUR AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP            
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL             
BE CLOSER TO THE BEST QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND            
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE SURFACE             
COLD FRONT TO BREAK THE CAP.  COULD EVEN SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM              
OR TWO IF ENOUGH CAPE CAN DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AROUND 50KTS OF              
0-6KM SHEAR...BUT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL                   
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY                    
DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT.  HAVE THEREFORE TWEAKED POPS            
DOWN A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH                
FRIDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY COME ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS            
ARE ADVERTISING A SIMILAR SITUATION TO TODAY`S.  HOWEVER...THE SAME             
CONCERNS IE. LACK OF MOISTURE...LACK OF FORCING...AND LACK OF                   
BUOYANCY APPLY ON SATURDAY.  HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED NOT TO ADD POPS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD            
FOR MID-JULY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  NAM AND              
GFS TRY TO BRING SOME BRING SOME WARMER 850 MB AIR OFF THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO WE MIGHT SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM                
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND                   
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOK TO             
STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT              
INDEX READINGS.                                                                 
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THE BATCH OF MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE JUST                  
MOVED SE OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG. EXPECTING MOST OF THE WAA                  
MID LVL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN N AND W OF THE TAF SITES                  
LT TGT...BUT MAY INCLUDE SCT MID LVL CLOUDS IN UIN AND COU. THE                 
SFC WND WL BE LGT LT TGT AS THE SFC RDG CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR SERN                
KS BLDS SLOWLY SEWD. THE SFC WND SHOULD BE MAINLY SWLY THU MRNG                 
THEN VEER ARND TO A W-NWLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE TAF FCST PD              
AS A FAIRLY WK CDFNT SAGS SWD THRU THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST              
POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION WITH THIS CDFNT WILL OCCUR IN COU DURG THE              
AFTN WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND                    
INSTABILITY. MAY INCLUDE A PROB30 GRP OF TSRA IN COU THU AFTN BUT               
WILL LEAVE DRY ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. WILL BE MORE CLOUD CVR THOUGH ON              
THU THAN WE HAD TDA WITH MDL TIME HGT SECTIONS OF RH FOR STL                    
INDICATING ABOUT 80 PERCENT RH VALUES ARND 700 MB DURING MUCH OF                
THE DAY ON THU. PLAN TO FCST SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS PLUS A MID              
LVL CLOUD CLG ON THU.                                                           
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
310 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH REGION               
IN NWRLY FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVR SRN HUDSON BAY                  
AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.                  
LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HI PRESS EXTENDING FM              
ERN NEB AND ERN KS INTO MO WITH A SECONDARY HIGH TO OUR NW OVR THE              
DAKOTAS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DESCENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS                   
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA PER 00Z UAA AND LOCAL OBS. A FEW                
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP AND BEST INDICATION IS DUE TO WK          
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OFF SEEN OFF RUC ON 300K SFC AND WHERE                       
STRONGEST THETA E ADVECTION IS OCCURING.                                        
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THETA E ADVECTION              
CONTINUING THRU NOON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...THUS THE LOW POPS.             
CDFNT WL DROP DOWN FM THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NRN NEB BY 18Z TODAY                 
AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN                     
NEB/SWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MODERATE                      
INSTABILITY (3000J/KG SBCAPE) AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD              
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED HAIL CORES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80...HOWEVER              
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS VERY WEAK. WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS TO              
COVER THIS AS CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. 00Z FORECAST MODELS                 
CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN AS HAVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WITH              
THAT SAID...HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVR                
EXTREME SERN NEB/SWRN IA AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF LATER                  
MODEL RUNS SLOW THE FNT DOWN EVEN MORE.                                         
FRIDAY SHOULD BE LAST COOL DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                 
THE FORECAST AREA. WL SEE A WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEKEND AND                  
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE CNTRL                
PLAINS BY MID NEXT WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...KOFK...                
KOMA AND KLNK...THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR                
ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING               
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET GOING DURING                
THE AFTERNOON...THEY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SERN NE. AT THIS TIME...             
THE CHANCE SEEMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KLNK AND KOMA TAFS.                  
FOR TONIGHT...IT APPEARS ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET               
WITH LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS              
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/MILLER                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
404 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHCS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS                 
WITH NW UPPER FLOW.                                                             
WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE ON THE WAY OUT WITH.                 
THIS WAVE HAS AN ASSOC H2 JET MAX OF 90 TO 100 KTS. ANOTHER JET                 
MAX ON WRN SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SEWD FROM                   
CANADA TODAY WITH SOME H5 VORTICITY NOTED WITHIN THE APPCH WAVE.                
HOWEVER WATER VAPOR SHOWING INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW WITHIN                  
THIS WRN SIDE OF TROUGH WITH ONLY ELONGATED/CHANNELIZED VORTICITY               
ATTM...THE 24 UNIT VORT NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HAVE A BIGGER                  
IMPACT ON NRN WI THAN ON US HERE. PCPN THAT OCCURRED OVERNGT                    
SEEMS TIED TO H5 TEMPS OF -17C OR COLDER...AND THE COLDEST POCKET               
OF H5 AIR TODAY WILL BE ACRS NE 1/2 OR SO OF CWA. THE NAM HAS                   
REALLY FLIPPED FROM THE 18Z RUN WHERE GUID POPS WERE CATEGORICAL                
AND NOW THEY ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 25. WILL PROBABLY NOT                 
STRAY TOO FAR FROM GFS MOS POPS AND KEY ON THE NE CWA AS BEST                   
LOCALE FOR PCPN CHCS TODAY AND THIS EVE...GIVEN OVERLAP OF H7 VV                
AND COLDER POCKET OF H5 TEMPS. IN FACT WILL PROBABLY TWEEK ABOVE                
THE GFS MOS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TO BETTER COLLAB. OUR               
LOCAL 4KM WRF BASED ON THE NAM HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON QPF TRENDS                  
WITH THE WAVE FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING AND IT IS INDICATING              
A GREATER CHC IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...BUT NOT UNTIL THIS              
AFTN. WILL TRY TO KEEP MRNG DRY.                                                
A BRIEF DOSE OF RDGING ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITHIN THE OVERALL UPPER               
NW FLO REGIME. NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY SLATED TO IMPACT AREAS TO OUR               
NORTH LATER FRI AND FRI NGT WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF H8 WAA AHEAD OF                
THIS FEATURE. EXPECT FROPA HERE ON SATURDAY WITH A SHOT OF DCVA                 
FROM THE PASSING H5 VORT MAX. IN FACT H8 DEWS OFF THE NAM GO UP T0              
9-11C...WITH A NICE LITTLE AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS               
SYSTEM.                                                                         
NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER RIDGE FOR SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER                  
SHOT OF PCPN COMING IN FOR MONDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON TCU WILL FORM.  ISOLATED CB/TSTMS ALSO FROM              
ROUGHLY 21Z TO 01Z BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.                  
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE IN MKE THAN MSN DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID               
LEVEL TEMPS.  ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF AND PROBABLY REMAIN VFR.               
&&                                                                              
CRAVEN                                                                          
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
915 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT...AS WAS THE CASE WED MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS VERY             
EASILY TRACED OUT BY SFC METARS AND MOTION OF CU LINES...BOTH OF                
WHICH PLACE THE AXIS FROM THE EVERGLADES EXTENDING ENE OVER GRAND               
BAHAMA ISLE. ALSO SIMILAR TO WED...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS GETTING AND            
EARLY START WITH SHRA HAVING ALREADY FORMED INVOF THE WEST COAST                
PRIOR TO 12Z. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS SHOW SIMILAR PWATS @ TBW/MFL (1.7")               
AND A FEW TENTHS HIGHER AT BOTH JAX (1.9") AND XMR (2.0"). H50 TEMPS            
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...RANGING FROM -4C TO -6C...WITH RESULTANT LAPSE            
RATES NOT TERRIBLY STEEP.                                                       
TO THE NORTH...WATERVAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW THE                 
RESIDUAL VORT LOBE FROM WED`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN CONUS             
NOW EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE NRN PENINSULA             
...AND THEN TURNS WWD TO SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. ATTENDANT WEAK SFC             
TROUGH PRETTY MUCH COLOCATED WITH THE VORTLOBE...AND THE INCRSGLY               
ZONAL ORIENTATION OF BOTH FEATURES INDICATES THAT THEY ARE IN THE               
PROCESS OF STRINGING OUT/BECOMING DIFFUSE...AS WAS PROGGED BY WED`S             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW ON TAP AGAIN TODAY...FAVORING             
EAST SIDE OF STATE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO               
SUPPORT CURRENT LOW-MID RANGE SCT POPS. NRN CWA APPEARS TO BE FAVORED           
FOR SLGTLY HIGHER RAIN CHCS...GIVEN PWATS ARE A COUPLE TENTHS HIGHER            
...AND HAVING SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL CONVG/MID LEVEL PVA               
FROM THE WEAK TROUGH PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTH FL. EXPECT               
SMALL CHC (20) FOR SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE PAST SUNSET             
AGAIN  TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 3-4F ABOVE                
CLIMO WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT >100F AGAIN TODAY.                          
MADE SMALL TWEAK TO CURRENT GRIDS/ZFP TO NUDGE POPS DOWN TO 30 PCT              
ACROSS THE FAR SRN CWA GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DLM RIDGE AXIS AND             
DEARTH OF CU/PRECIP IN THAT AREA WED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF AFTN TSRA TODAY WITH GREATEST             
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH AS OUTLINED IN EARLIER DISC.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SW-SSW FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10KT OR            
LESS AND SEAS AOB 3FT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CRISTALDI                                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
747 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN PARTS              
OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES              
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                   
FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...SO CHANCES OF RAIN                 
PRETTY MUCH NIL FOR THIS MORNING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                  
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WITH SUN...                          
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
&&                                                                              
ELDER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING                
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS              
AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY TARGET PORTIONS                
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT               
MAY GO LOW IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                            
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AREAL EXTENT/PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                            
AT EARLY MORNING...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/DEVELOPING MCS WAS ONGOING                
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE               
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH DIFFERED ON AREAL PLACEMENT AND            
TRACK. LATEST RUC MAY HAVE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM...BASED ON             
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...TAKING COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY WANE BY             
LATE MORNING...EXPECT SOME FESTERING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND                   
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL STUNT DIURNAL            
TEMPERATURE RISE...SO HAVE CUT MAXES DOWN A BIT THERE. BETTER CHANCES           
FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS            
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT            
THIS TO BE THE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. A VERY UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH COULD AFFECT CENTRAL OR             
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HIGH               
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR HEAVY                 
RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED            
IN TIME...WITH BARTON COUNTY ADDED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS             
A BIT HIGHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE BEARISH ON THE DRIER               
AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS                
STILL SUPPORTS DWINDLING OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON               
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL LET                 
DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER GANDER AT NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY                
NEEDED TWEAKS TO WEEKEND FORECAST.                                              
NO CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE: ALTO CUMULUS CONTINUES INCREASE ACROSS THE                
AREA AT THIS TIME...AS LIFT ALONG THE 315K ISENTROPIC LAYER                     
CONTINUES. THIS LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP               
TO THE WEST OF KHUT/KRSL AFTER 09Z. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL                
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z. SO HAVE                   
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN STARTING AFTER 09Z.                      
ITS AFTER 12Z WHEN CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS WARM                   
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL             
LEAD TO CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.              
SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WILL            
ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS INCREASED TSRA             
IN THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING.                                 
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  84  65 /  60  60  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      83  65  85  64 /  50  60  20  10                                
NEWTON          82  65  85  64 /  50  50  20  10                                
ELDORADO        82  66  84  65 /  70  50  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  67  83  66 /  80  60  30  10                                
RUSSELL         84  64  86  64 /  40  40  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      83  65  86  64 /  50  50  10  10                                
SALINA          85  65  88  64 /  40  40  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       83  65  86  64 /  50  50  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  84  65 /  80  50  30  10                                
CHANUTE         83  64  84  63 /  80  50  20  10                                
IOLA            83  64  85  63 /  70  40  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    82  65  84  64 /  80  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ047-050>053-                      
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
710 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING                
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS              
AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY TARGET PORTIONS                
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT               
MAY GO LOW IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                            
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AREAL EXTENT/PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                            
AT EARLY MORNING...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/DEVELOPING MCS WAS ONGOING                
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE               
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH DIFFERED ON AREAL PLACEMENT AND            
TRACK. LATEST RUC MAY HAVE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM...BASED ON             
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...TAKING COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY WANE BY             
LATE MORNING...EXPECT SOME FESTERING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND                   
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL STUNT DIURNAL            
TEMPERATURE RISE...SO HAVE CUT MAXES DOWN A BIT THERE. BETTER CHANCES           
FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS            
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT            
THIS TO BE THE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. A VERY UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH COULD AFFECT CENTRAL OR             
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HIGH               
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR HEAVY                 
RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED            
IN TIME...WITH BARTON COUNTY ADDED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS             
A BIT HIGHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE BEARISH ON THE DRIER               
AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS                
STILL SUPPORTS DWINDLING OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON               
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL LET                 
DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER GANDER AT NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY                
NEEDED TWEAKS TO WEEKEND FORECAST.                                              
NO CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE: ALTO CUMULUS CONTINUES INCREASE ACROSS THE                
AREA AT THIS TIME...AS LIFT ALONG THE 315K ISENTROPIC LAYER                     
CONTINUES. THIS LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP               
TO THE WEST OF KHUT/KRSL AFTER 09Z. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL                
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z. SO HAVE                   
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN STARTING AFTER 09Z.                      
ITS AFTER 12Z WHEN CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS WARM                   
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL             
LEAD TO CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.              
SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WILL            
ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS INCREASED TSRA             
IN THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING.                                 
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  84  65 /  60  60  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      83  65  85  64 /  70  60  20  10                                
NEWTON          82  65  85  64 /  60  50  20  10                                
ELDORADO        82  66  84  65 /  60  50  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  67  83  66 /  60  60  30  10                                
RUSSELL         84  64  86  64 /  50  40  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      83  65  86  64 /  60  50  10  10                                
SALINA          85  65  88  64 /  50  40  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       83  65  86  64 /  60  50  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  84  65 /  60  50  30  10                                
CHANUTE         83  64  84  63 /  60  50  20  10                                
IOLA            83  64  85  63 /  50  40  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    82  65  84  64 /  60  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ047-050>053-                      
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1138 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                     
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...                                                   
.SYNOPSIS... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                       
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS SYSTEM             
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST                 
LOWER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER                
SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND KEEP US UNSEASONABLY               
COOL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY.                  
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT COME OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY              
MORNING.  ANOTHER RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (1138 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                    
CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WIND             
SPEED CONVERGENCE INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS ONE OR TWO             
SMALL SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CU FIELD. WE`RE CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF H5            
NVA... ALTHOUGH PVA COMES BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING              
AS WELL AS RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING            
BY 21Z. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET AND INVERTED V LOOK IN THE               
LOWER LEVELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CELLS COULD CONTAIN MARGINALLY SVR               
WIND/HAIL AS THEY MOVE SE AROUND 30 MPH. COVERAGE OF CELLS SHOULD BE            
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED HOWEVER BASED ON K INDEX VALUES IN THE UPR                
20S.                                                                            
THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS THE                
FRONT COMES THROUGH.                                                            
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW +5C H8 AIR COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND               
EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE             
THAT LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 20C WE                 
SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS FIRST                 
THING FRIDAY MORNING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS TOWARD NOON...SO THE            
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGH TEMPS                
ONLY AROUND 70.                                                                 
THE MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE GFS                
FURTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN THE NAM.  HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT              
WHICH HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...BUT GENERALLY THE GFS              
OUT PERFORMS THE NAM ON SUCH FEATURES.  THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE                
CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.                 
EVEN THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY             
NIGHT.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE AREA MID DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A             
SURGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  THE                
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE                  
SOUTH...BUT CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AS               
THE WAVE AND COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT                   
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                      
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE LONG TERM IS HOW MUCH OF A WARM            
UP WE WILL HAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE TREND IS FOR THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR HUDSON BAY TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND                
EVEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.  LOOKING AT THE 850 MB THERMAL                 
PATTERN FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE             
ARRIVING.  ALSO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE NOT NEARLY AS                
WARM 00Z TUE.  BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA THE INDICATION IS THAT WE              
WILL SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST MON INTO              
WED TIME FRAME WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF WARM UP.  I DID                
TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO                
CLIMATOLOGY.                                                                    
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CYCLONIC FLOW               
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA...THE PATTERN SHOULD TURN              
UNSETTLED. HOW MUCH OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WE SEE WILL DEPEND THE              
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA             
FOR A DAY OR TWO.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MENTION OF TRW/RW MON.             
WE MAY NEED TO ADD IT TO TUE OR WED FCST AS WELL.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(539 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2007)                                        
THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS FORECASTED WILL BE VFR.  HOWEVER THE                  
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD            
LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANY CONVECTION               
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z.   DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL                                 
CONVECTION...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY GO UNDER VFR.  WILL NEED TO               
MONITOR THE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON                 
BAY...WHICH COULD ARRIVE HERE AFTER 05Z.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                         
WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE            
TODAY AS BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE REALIZED.  MIXING HEIGHTS COULD BE               
RATHER DEEP DRAGGING DOWN STIFF WINDS FROM ALOFT.  ANY STORMS THAT              
DEVELOP COULD INCREASE THE WIND AND WAVE POTENTIAL.  RIP CURRENTS               
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT SHORELINE WIDE AS THE WINDS AND WAVES PILE UP             
ON SHORE.  WILL RUN THE ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF                
HOLLAND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                      
RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOMED ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN            
SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND                   
SATURDAY HOLD MORE PROMISE FOR A DECENT SOAKING RAIN...ESPECIALLY               
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE A LIMITED                
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST JOE TO HOLLAND FOR TODAY.  SMALL CRAFT             
ADVISORY HOLLAND TO MANISTEE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: MEADE/JK                                                            
LONG TERM: MJS                                                                  
AVIATION: MJS                                                                   
MARINE: JK                                                                      
HYDROLOGY: JK                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1005 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                     
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING MCS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN   
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS. AREA RADARS            
WERE NOTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI                  
...WHICH WAS PUSHING INTO AN 850 THETA MIN REGION. ON THE SURFACE A             
WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AREA            
MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME CONTINUED GOOD INSTABILITY FOR              
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES EXPECT A THETA              
RIDGE(335 TO AROUND 340K) TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO A LITTLE OVER 2                 
INCHES OVER THE WEST HALF. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK                     
AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT 500 MB WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.             
SO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND            
HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY            
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. SO WITH BOUNDARY AROUND AN ISOLATED STRONG TO            
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE              
90S. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASES ON PRESENT               
TRENDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. CURRENT POPS LOOKS TO BE             
ON LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE BEST LOW POPS IN THE               
WEST./17/                                                                       
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE                    
DAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES IN                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT GLH...GWO...JAN              
AND HBG. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY            
FALL TO 2SM OR LESS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN IN THE             
18Z-04Z PERIOD...STARTING AROUND GLH/GWO AND MOVING INTO JAN/MEI IN             
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO MOST SITES AFTER 06Z. THE PATCHY     
FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 13Z. WILL PUT IN VCTS IN TAF SITES ACROSS            
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT VFR FOR FRIDAY             
MORNING./17/                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                                     
DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES           
CAME IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...SO STUCK WITH THE GUIDANCE. BREAKS             
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE MOST OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE                
LOWER 90S FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO                  
CONTINUE...SO LOWER 90S WERE GOOD. STUCK WITH WARMER LOWS...THE EAST            
MAY COOL OFF A LITTLE MORE...BUT LOWER 70S WERE GOOD ACROSS THE CWA.            
POPS WERE ALSO GOOD...TWEAKED UP IN A FEW SPOTS. THE MODELS SEEM MORE           
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO USED A BLEND OF THE               
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE ISOLATED SEVERE                          
WORDING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH            
THE SOUTH WITH A BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. ANYWAY...THE UPPER           
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BY           
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY SINKS DOWN INTO THE              
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY                
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RUC SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST                  
ARKANSAS AND SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. THERE WAS ALSO GOOD THETA E               
VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY FROM                  
EARLIER HAS STALLED. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD                            
INSTABILITY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES BY THE AFTERNOON.             
WINDS AROUND 850MB DID NOT LOOK AS GOOD...BUT WINDS WERE STILL                  
AROUND 15KTS. ACTIVITY SEEMS TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING...BUT GETS             
STARTED EARLY IN THE MORNING. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE VALUES FOR                    
TODAY...BUT RAISED VALUES TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. WILL ALSO                
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR FRIDAY ALSO...WITH ANOTHER             
WAVE DROPPING IN BY THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PW VALUES STAY AROUND 2                 
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE ALSO               
GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER FLOW BECOMES W/SWLY BY THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE THAT              
DIGS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE            
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THE REMNANTS OF              
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BUT WEAK SURFACE CYCLONIC              
FLOW IS INDICATED ALONG SRN ZONES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO              
INCREASE WITH AREAS OF 25-30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS BY 00Z SUNDAY.               
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER TX SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING IS             
REDUCED ERN ZONES WHERE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO EDGE WWD.                
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE                  
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUES BUT UPPER              
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON             
THE WRN FRINGES OF DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING MONDAY THROUGH                      
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TX LOW COMPARED TO                
PREVIOUS RUNS...DIGGING THE UPPER LOW INTO TX WHILE HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE                        
ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING            
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL               
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO 2SM OR LESS             
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN IN THE 18-04Z                          
PERIOD...STARTING AROUND GLH/GWO AND MOVING INTO JAN/MEI IN THE LATE            
AFTERNOON. WITH A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF HBG...WILL GO WITH TSRA/SHRA                
AROUND 18Z FOR STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY. MAY ADD PATCHY FOG TO MOST              
SITES AFTER 6Z.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       93  73  92  70 /  25  26  55  32                                  
MERIDIAN      93  71  90  69 /  16  22  61  43                                  
VICKSBURG     95  73  92  72 /  28  25  56  26                                  
HATTIESBURG   93  72  92  71 /  25  16  56  42                                  
NATCHEZ       93  72  91  70 /  34  18  56  28                                  
GREENVILLE    94  70  92  72 /  29  43  56  26                                  
GREENWOOD     92  71  89  71 /  25  44  57  27                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/03                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
211 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRI)                                                               
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...                    
CURRENTLY...SURFACE FLOW IS VERY NON-DESCRIPT...SO MAKING IT TOUGH              
TO FOCUS ON LOW LEVEL FORCING OF THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL             
FUEL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE                
SERN CO...AND ALMOST AROUND 50F IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TOUGH TO SEE            
ANY FEATURE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL                 
UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED FROM NRN UT             
INTO CNTRL CO. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE 1K-2.5K J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER            
ELEVATIONS WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND 1C IN THE MOUNTAINS TO -6C IN             
EXTREME SERN CO. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN              
CO AND NIL/WEAKER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EARLY THIS AFTN...THE FIRST               
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER TELLER AND EL PASO               
COUNTIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AT BEST...SO STORM TYPE WOULD             
BE PULSE WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.                
VERY JUICY ALOFT WITH H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-7 G/KG.               
LAPS FREEZING LEVEL CONTINUES TO BE 14K-15K FT.                                 
LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHALLENGING FORECAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF            
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ORGANIZED               
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THE               
REST OF THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. LOTS OF FUEL AND INSTABILITY                 
SITTING AROUND WAITING TO BE RELEASED. WILL LIKELY SEE PULSE                    
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE AND RE-GENERATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...              
WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PINDOWN. THEY LITERALLY COULD BE ALL OVER THE             
PLACE. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE /NUMEROUS/ POP CATEGORY FOR                         
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR.          
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY... RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS H7-H5 <              
10KTS...AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-7 G/KG...                       
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING/MERGING WILL BE PROLIFIC HEAVY RAIN                       
PRODUCERS...PROBABLY 1-2.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED               
SPOTS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...BUT               
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PENNY-QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS                  
AROUND 50-60 MPH IF STORMS TRANSFORM INTO BOW ECHOES. THE SCT-NMRS              
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE                   
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR SE AND HEAD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER             
SUNSET.                                                                         
FRI...PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY A GOOD TOOL. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING                
OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING S AND E            
THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY LOOKING FOR PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THE              
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT STILL WEAK AT                
BEST. MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL             
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. METZE                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH              
QUICKLY SOON AFTER SUNSET FRI NIGHT...BUT REAL QUESTION IS WHAT                 
SATURDAY WILL BRING. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A NORTHERLY SURGE                
DROPPING DOWN THE E PLAINS SAT MORN AS THE STATE RESIDES ON THE NE              
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR ONE MORE DAY. NAM BREAKS OUT WIDESPREAD             
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE BY MIDDAY...WHILE GFS IS A LOT              
DRIER AND DOES NOT START ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING.                 
GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE THROUGH THE LAST WEEK...REALITY WILL MOST                
LIKELY BE A BLEND OF THE TWO AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM                
PERSISTENCE. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO DAYTIME HEATING             
SHOULD SUPPLY THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. IT DOES NOT LOOK AS                   
FAVORABLE AS FRI...SO WENT WITH ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS AND ENDED AT            
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT               
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST FOR             
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL            
PART OF THE US. THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS              
FOR THE E PLAINS AND E SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...WHILE AT            
THE SAME TIME ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS FOR               
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GRIDS CURRENTLY FORECAST ISOLATED              
POPS ALL AREAS...WHILE FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FEEL                
THAT THIS IS REASONABLE DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF UPPER                 
DISTURBANCES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE               
PLAINS...70S AND 80S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS MENTIONED                       
EARLIER...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME OF              
THE FIRE ZONES ARE ALREADY REACHING CRITICAL FUEL LEVELS. MOORE                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z/12. ANY               
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE ERRATIC WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND MVFR/VFR                
CEILINGS. METZE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
225 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY              
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR               
SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES                
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS ON MONDAY...BUT SEVERAL             
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                     
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION TONIGHT...                   
ALLOWING LIGHT NW WINDS TO TAKE ON A MORE S DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK.              
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL            
ALLOW FOR A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC             
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE SURROUNDING SUBURBS             
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...                
OUTLYING AND INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER               
50S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                             
SW WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ABOUT               
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THU ALLOWING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN                  
HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK AROUND 60. WEAK UPPER LEVEL                    
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AFTERNOON...MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF PRECIP                 
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PRIOR RUNS. THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE              
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND AM HAVING A HARD TIME JUSTIFYING POPS.              
WILL DROP TO SLIGHT CHC...AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHARP                    
"INVERTED-V" PATTERN...AND COLD POOL ALOFT COULD TRIGGER SOME STORMS            
AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END              
AFTER SUNSET...SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING            
AND PASSAGE OF FRONT.                                                           
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE ON SAT AND WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SW            
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND MILD DAY. HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SAT            
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A                  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON.                          
HIGHS FRI WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST                      
LOCATIONS...NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SAT AND               
SUN WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL            
MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN RETURNING N AS A WARM FRONT ON MON.             
SW FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90               
MON AND TUE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL                  
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES               
WILL DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON MON/TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR            
90...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF             
THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S AT INLAND                      
LOCATIONS...LOW 80S CLOSER TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW MUCH THE                 
WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE                   
12Z GFS...SUNY MM5 AND 15Z RUC ALL WANT TO VEER WINDS TO THE S/SW               
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN LONG                
ISLAND BY 21Z. TO THE CONTRARY...THE 12Z NAM WRF AND MET GUIDANCE               
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A W/NW WIND. BASED ON TERMINAL RADAR FROM                 
KJFK INCLINED TO VEER WINDS AROUND AT KJFK AND KISP...AND PERHAPS               
BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY ELSEWHERE.                                           
LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...LITTLE CLOUD COVER                    
EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.                                        
OUTLOOK FROM 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED               
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT              
APPROACHING THE COAST COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT. VFR AGAIN WITH WEAK HIGH                 
PRESSURE FOR SAT. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TUE MAY HELP                
TO FOCUS SCT CONVECTION...PRODUCING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THE                  
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT WITH AN UPPER                
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. LOCAL SEA            
BREEZES WILL INFLUENCE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS.                          
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE S TO SW FLOW. BY            
SUNDAY...SCA WINDS OF 25 KT COULD BE ACHIEVED ALONG WITH 5 FT SEAS              
ON THE OCEAN.                                                                   
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY EXPECT TO TRAVERS THE REGION                
LATE TUESDAY.                                                                   
AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE IS                    
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY. SINCE SUNDAY/S FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED               
TO MAKE A CLEAR PASSAGE OF THE REGION...CHANCE OF CONVECTION                    
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. &&                                                      
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. LIGHT AMOUNTS                
OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED                       
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MPS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MPS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MPS                                                                
LONG TERM...MPS                                                                 
AVIATION...DW                                                                   
MARINE...JST                                                                    
HYDROLOGY...MPS                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
158 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY.              
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND                    
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...               
BUT SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA                 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP FOR THE                   
START OF THE NEW WEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER READINGS                 
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 70S AT 16Z. THIS WAS A FEW DEGREES               
BELOW THE FORECAST PACE. 12Z MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A                 
BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL. ADDITIONALLY...KJFK             
TERMINAL DOPPLER INDICATING A SEA BREEZE SETTING UP ALONG THE                   
SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT                    
DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 15Z RUC               
SUPPORT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE S/SW ACROSS MUCH               
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MINUS THE FAR NW                 
ZONES OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS..WINDS ADJUSTED TO TAKE                  
INTO ACCOUNT THE FORECAST VEERING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT                
WAVE TROF OVER WESTERN NY STATE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS                
FOR JULY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER               
50S INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...WITH LOW-MID 60S COAST AND MID-                 
UPPER 60S IN NYC.                                                               
FRI...ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE              
REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A DRY MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT                
SOME ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FRI AFTERNOON AS THE                
FRONT MOVES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE IN ORANGE                      
COUNTY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE AIRMASS WILL               
NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE...AND UPPER FORCING                
IS RATHER WEAK...SO NOT LOOKING FOR SVR WX WITH THE NEXT FRONT.                 
MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.                                   
FOR FRI NIGHT...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST AS THE 00Z               
NAM/GFS/GEFS/GGEM ALONG WITH 21Z SREF ALL BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY               
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE                     
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER                 
QPF FCSTS...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP                
FRI NIGHT. IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES LOWERED THE PREVIOUS               
LIKELY POPS DOWN TO CHANCE.                                                     
THE WEAK FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY SAT MORNING...BRINGING AN                  
END TO ANY PRECIP. WEAK HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION              
ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR                     
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM                     
PERIOD AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL                  
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE               
SUN NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN ON MON                  
NIGHT. WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY N                
OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR TUE AND               
WED.                                                                            
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS               
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CITY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER               
80S ELSEWHERE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW MUCH THE                 
WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE                   
12Z GFS...SUNY MM5 AND 15Z RUC ALL WANT TO VEER WINDS TO THE S/SW               
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN LONG                
ISLAND BY 21Z. TO THE CONTRARY...THE 12Z NAM WRF AND MET GUIDANCE               
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A W/NW WIND. BASED ON TERMINAL RADAR FROM                 
KJFK INCLINED TO VEER WINDS AROUND AT KJFK AND KISP...AND PERHAPS               
BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY ELSEWHERE.                                           
LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...LITTLE CLOUD COVER                    
EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.                                        
OUTLOOK FROM 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED               
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT              
APPROACHING THE COAST COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT. VFR AGAIN WITH WEAK HIGH                 
PRESSURE FOR SAT. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TUE MAY HELP                
TO FOCUS SCT CONVECTION...PRODUCING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS BACK TO WEST/SW THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE                 
EAST AND UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.                                            
GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. SEAS COULD             
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT TONIGHT EASTERN OCEAN AS SUGGESTED BY WAVE WATCH             
III...BUT I DO ANTICIPATE THESE SEAS REMAINING JUST UNDER THE 5 FT              
FORECASTED.                                                                     
AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW. CONSENSUS                 
SEEMS TO POINT TOWARD A WEAKER FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.                              
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT SUNDAY. MOST              
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE TIGHTENING SW PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS TIME              
FRAME. SEAS COME UP CLOSE TO SCA IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED                    
STRONGER WINDS. WINDS SHIFT NW BEHIND FRONT EARLY MONDAY...THEN QUICKLY         
BACK AND REMAIN IN PERSISTENT SW WIND FLOW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ALL FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM WED EVENING HAVE ENDED. REMAINING                    
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH                  
LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR                 
TODAY THROUGH FRI MORNING. CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NOW                   
APPEAR LESS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS                   
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DRY THEREAFTER ONCE AGAIN FOR SAT...THEN                    
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT                   
APPROACHES. OVERALL...NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH               
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CJ                                                                   
NEAR TERM...DW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CJ                                                                 
LONG TERM...CJ                                                                  
AVIATION...DW                                                                   
MARINE...DW                                                                     
HYDROLOGY...CJ                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
245 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NE NEB               
INTO SRN IA IS SUSTAINING LINE OF TSTMS INTO SOUTHWEST IA THIS AFTN.            
HOWEVER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WEAKER OVR SW IA COMPARED TO ERN NEB.             
CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE WELL WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST WHICH                
PUSHES BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF IA BY EARLY EVENING. WILL              
LEAVE IN POPS FOR FAR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.               
STILL A MARGINAL SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND               
NICKEL SIZE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND                
COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS NCENT CONUS WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS IA                   
TONIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH.                 
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY-THURSDAY/...                                                 
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED EARLY ON BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR                
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVR IA FLOWING INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH               
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH IA              
ON SATURDAY. MODELS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN             
AHEAD OF FRONT. NAM IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WHILE GFS THE WEAKEST.                
CANADIAN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALONG FRONT BY SAT              
AFTN ACROSS SRN IA...AND SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL. WILL CARRY            
SLIGHT CHANCES LATE FRI NIGHT FAR NORTH...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL IA               
SAT MORNING...WITH HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF SAT AFTN. WITH                 
HUDSON BAY LOW RETREATING...PUSH OF COOL AIR BEHIND SATURDAYS FRONT             
NOT THAT STRONG.                                                                
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES            
TO SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD. SO A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH             
TEMPS GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. DRY NW FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE              
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER IA...BUT CANNOT ELIMINATE CHANCE OF                
TSRA TUE INTO WED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS IN VICINITY OF WEAK BOUNDARY.             
OF COURSE THE POSITION OF SAID BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE AT               
THIS POINT AND THE SMALL POPS MAY BE SHIFTED IN TIME AND SPACE OVER             
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...12/18Z                                                              
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ENTRAINING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...MAINLY              
NORTH OF I-80. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...HAVE                 
MENTION OF SHOWERS/CB FOR DSM AND OTM AS NOT CONFIDENT WITH                     
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW -TSRA DEVELOPING IN WESTERN TO            
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA PUSHING...SO ONLY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION WOULD BE            
THE TWO SOUTHERN TAFS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SUTTLE            
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. PAST 03Z FRI...MAINLY HAVE MINIMAL CIGS             
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.  WINDS LOOK            
TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY END OF TAF PERIOD.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...MOYER                                                                  
AVIATION...PODRAZIK                                                             
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
428 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER            
HUDSON BAY...AND BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES            
NOTED ON AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY CIRCLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WEAK               
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INTO NORTHWEST            
MISSOURI AND ON SOUTHEASTWARD...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIGHT             
UP THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE              
FRONTAL PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER KANSAS                   
TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST              
OVERNIGHT WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. ON THE                   
SMALLER SCALE...MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS SC KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING             
HAS PUSHED INTO NE ARKANSAS...BUT LEFT BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY               
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS SOME             
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION              
MOVES IN ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.                                             
TODAY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS COULD SERVE                         
AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS                         
AFTERNOON. ALSO...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COULD HELP TO POP UP                       
SCATTERED INSTABILITY GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MOST LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT                        
SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS                        
AFTERNOON...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT THIS WAVE HELPING TO                
SHOVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS. NAM PUSHES THE FRONT                     
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND IS A BIT SLOWER ON BRINGING                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT REACHES              
THE NE/KS BORDER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...THE EARLIER MOVEMENT                     
PROGGED BY THE RUC...LATER BY THE NAM AND GFS. LEANED TOWARD THE                
BULLISH NAM WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM                             
AND...OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 12Z                    
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL                 
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT PUSH ACROSS                 
NE KANSAS. STORMS MAY ALSO DROP LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. KEPT A                    
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF              
THE CWA...DRY TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. POTENTIAL MCS                      
DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST THAT DEVELOPS IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME MAY HELP              
TO SHUNT FRONTAL CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COLD POOL IN THE                
WAKE OF THE COMPLEX MAY HELP TO STALL THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN              
ANTICIPATED. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE FURTHER ASSESSED BY                 
LATER SHIFTS...ONCE COMPLEX HAS IN FACT DEVELOPED. COOL AIRMASS                 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS SOMEWHAT AT BAY...DESPITE            
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. KEPT READINGS A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT              
FOR A CLOUDY AND COOL START TO THE DAY.                                         
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MAINLY AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS...BUT CONVERGENCE AND UPPER             
LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK. WILL NOT INSERT A POP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AT            
THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ON FUTURE FCSTS. FAVORED THE             
NAM MODEL OVER THE GFS ON SATURDAY AS NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT            
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM DEWPOINTS AND                      
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. ASSUMING NO ONGOING CONVECTION                 
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTHCENTRAL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG              
THE FRONT BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA             
INTO THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON POPS TO ALL AREAS NORTH OF               
I-35...THEN AN EVENING POP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE                    
TURNPIKE...BUT THE HIGHER POPS/BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION                    
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY                 
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY A TOUGH CALL WITH THERMAL AXIS TRAVERSING             
THE CWA NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/MORE MID CLOUDS AND ANY               
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL GO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...BUT             
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE LARGER THAN THIS.                                       
ANY PRECIP AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND STAY SOUTH            
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHERLY AND WITH                
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CWA. THE 850 THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE EAST TO              
WEST...SO WARMER WESTERN AREAS AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS. WILL PLACE            
WARMER HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES.                                                                    
AFTER SUNDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN                
TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER             
MORE ON HOW TO HANDLE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS TRYING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS IT GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN               
THE RIDGE AXIS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEPS LOW...BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER             
OF THE CWA WILL BE MOST IN LINE FOR CONVECTION NEAR UPPER LEVEL                 
SYSTEM IF IT MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH. EITHER WAY...WARMER TEMPS IN              
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S LOOKS GOOD WITH THE WARMER TEMPS WEST.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BOUNDARY LAYER CU SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION                   
INCREASES. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG                    
MID-LEVEL THERMO GRADIENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NE SHOULD MOVE                    
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA AND REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. A              
SECOND COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT                
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. NOT REALLY SURE WHERE            
THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR...SO LEFT SCT CU WITH CB FOR                 
ISOLATED STORMS IN ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                  
SHOULD BRING DOWN MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM UPSLOPE               
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NE...THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)                                               
CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM                          
MODELS ONCE AGAIN GENERATING COPIOUS QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
TONIGHT. PRIMARY UPPER FORCING APPEARS TO BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON EJECTING ACROSS THE                
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VEERING 500MB WINDS AT A PROFILER IN            
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO SUPPORT THAT THEORY. CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK            
WOULD BRING IT INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THUS LIKE THE                
SREF AND GFS WHICH PAINT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.               
NAM INSISTS ON MORE CONVECTION DROPPING OUT OF NEBRASKA AS                      
WELL...TIED TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND               
PERHAPS WEAK/SHEARED OUT VORTICITY MAXIMUMS COMING OUT OF WYOMING.              
NO DOUBT THE NAM QPF FIELDS VERIFYING WELL SO FAR TODAY...AND HIGH              
RESOLUTION RUC MODEL ALSO SHOWS FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH TONIGHT AND                
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 0-6KM MEAN WINDS/STORM MOTIONS ARE             
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH OUT OF NEBRASKA. ALL THINGS                        
CONSIDERED...WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SOME HEALTHY POPS ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL.                                                         
FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 20KTS.               
500MB VORTICITY FIELDS SHOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED VERY WEAK WAVES. IF                
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WERE TO OCCUR...APPEARS TO BE TIED TO LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES             
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A FEW MORE               
DEGREES C COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH WEAKER CAP WILL NOT BE AS                
DIFFICULT TO GET SOMETHING GOING. WILL PAINT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS IN WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS WHERE NAM FORECASTS SURFACE                      
CONVERGENCE AXIS.                                                               
SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NAM              
AND GFS MORE OR LESS ON THE SAME PAGE WITH BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH              
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z DURING PEAK HEATING. NAM A                
TAD FASTER PERHAPS. MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT                
SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SOUTH               
AND LOWER TO THE NORTH SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY POST                 
FRONTAL. OBVIOUSLY ANY CHANGE IN FRONTAL TIMING WILL GREATLY EFFECT             
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT FASTER                 
FROPA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND FRONT ENDING UP SOUTH OF THE              
AREA. TRIMMED GOING POPS JUST A BIT IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT.                   
SUNDAY...APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMING DOWN THE RIDGE...BUT                  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS QUITE POOR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.                 
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15C IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL ALSO                
RESULT IN STRONG CAP. ALL IN ALL...NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO DEVIATE               
FROM A DRY FORECAST.                                                            
.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)                                               
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE SPRAWLING RIDGE                  
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLIDING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS. FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL EACH DAY OF            
THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE NEAR 30C. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE WILL              
BE RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. TOWARDS             
THE END OF THE PERIOD...GFS WANTS TO BRING A FRONT DOWN THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS THE FRONT             
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE            
UPPER RIDGE...WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION.                                   
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HINGE ON BREAKING THE RATHER              
STRONG CAP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...BUT GIVEN WEAK            
FLOW ALOFT LITTLE IF ANY STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED. EVEN IF SOMETHING            
WERE TO POP LARGE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS MAY RESULT IN VIRGA/DRY                
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THEREFORE                 
WANING AND DECIDED TO DROP POPS DOWN TO 10 IN COLORADO.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL               
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO ARE                  
MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS. AT THEIR CURRENT SPEED THEY WILL              
REACH THE KMCK TERMINAL AROUND 0030Z AND THE KGLD TERMINAL AROUND               
0200-0300Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE             
STORMS. BY 06Z THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE                         
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR HAVE MOVED THROUGH               
THE TERMINAL SITES WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. BY 12Z SOME                
STRATUS AND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE             
AM EXPECTING NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK/JDK/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AND                       
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WAKE OF MCS. SERIOUS PROBLEMS WITH MODEL             
INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF MCS. 1200 UTC DDC             
RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR THAN MODELS              
INITIALIZED. THIS MEANS THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND LIKELY              
THERMAL GRADIENT SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ICT FORECAST                 
AREA. THIS GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR                        
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND MCS TRACK TONIGHT. 1500 UTC RUC                     
APPEARS TO BE CATCHING ON AND WAS USED TO TWEAK GRIDS FOR THIS                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND                   
PRECIPITATION. BASED ON PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON...HAVE NIXED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DURING THE                         
AFTERNOON...AND LIMITED THIS AREA THIS EVENING PRIMARILY TO THOSE               
AREAS WHERE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY. -HOWERTON                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE                            
THIS AFTERNOON AT KICT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                
LIMITED TO KHUT/KICT/KCNU FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.  WEAK UPSLOPE                 
FLOW TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL VISUAL               
FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS ONCE PRECIPITATION SUBSIDES. -HOWERTON                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN PARTS              
OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES              
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                   
FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...SO CHANCES OF RAIN                 
PRETTY MUCH NIL FOR THIS MORNING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                  
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WITH SUN...                          
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
ELDER                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING                
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS              
AND WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                   
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY TARGET PORTIONS                
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT               
MAY GO LOW IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                            
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AREAL EXTENT/PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                            
AT EARLY MORNING...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/DEVELOPING MCS WAS ONGOING                
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE               
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH DIFFERED ON AREAL PLACEMENT AND            
TRACK. LATEST RUC MAY HAVE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM...BASED ON             
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...TAKING COMPLEX SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY WANE BY             
LATE MORNING...EXPECT SOME FESTERING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND                   
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL STUNT DIURNAL            
TEMPERATURE RISE...SO HAVE CUT MAXES DOWN A BIT THERE. BETTER CHANCES           
FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS            
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT            
THIS TO BE THE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. A VERY UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH COULD AFFECT CENTRAL OR             
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HIGH               
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR HEAVY                 
RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED            
IN TIME...WITH BARTON COUNTY ADDED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS             
A BIT HIGHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE BEARISH ON THE DRIER               
AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH FORECAST CONSENSUS                
STILL SUPPORTS DWINDLING OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON               
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL LET                 
DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER GANDER AT NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY                
NEEDED TWEAKS TO WEEKEND FORECAST.                                              
NO CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE: ALTO CUMULUS CONTINUES INCREASE ACROSS THE                
AREA AT THIS TIME...AS LIFT ALONG THE 315K ISENTROPIC LAYER                     
CONTINUES. THIS LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP               
TO THE WEST OF KHUT/KRSL AFTER 09Z. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL                
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z. SO HAVE                   
INTRODUCED VCTS FOR KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN STARTING AFTER 09Z.                      
ITS AFTER 12Z WHEN CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS WARM                   
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL             
LEAD TO CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.              
SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WILL            
ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS INCREASED TSRA             
IN THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING.                                 
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  84  65 /  30  50  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      84  65  85  64 /  20  40  20  10                                
NEWTON          83  65  85  64 /  20  40  20  10                                
ELDORADO        82  66  84  65 /  30  40  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  67  83  66 /  60  50  30  10                                
RUSSELL         85  64  86  64 /  20  30  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      85  65  86  64 /  20  40  10  10                                
SALINA          85  65  88  64 /  20  30  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       84  65  86  64 /  20  30  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  84  65 /  80  50  30  10                                
CHANUTE         83  64  84  63 /  60  40  20  10                                
IOLA            83  64  85  63 /  50  40  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    82  65  84  64 /  70  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE                       
TONIGHT FOR KSZ067-082-083-091>093-098>100.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
145 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                       
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS SYSTEM             
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST                 
LOWER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER                
SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND KEEP US UNSEASONABLY               
COOL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY.                  
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT COME OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY              
MORNING.  ANOTHER RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... (1138 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                    
CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WIND             
SPEED CONVERGENCE INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. RADAR SHOWS ONE OR TWO             
SMALL SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CU FIELD. WE`RE CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF H5            
NVA... ALTHOUGH PVA COMES BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING              
AS WELL AS RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING            
BY 21Z. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET AND INVERTED V LOOK IN THE               
LOWER LEVELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CELLS COULD CONTAIN MARGINALLY SVR               
WIND/HAIL AS THEY MOVE SE AROUND 30 MPH. COVERAGE OF CELLS SHOULD BE            
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED HOWEVER BASED ON K INDEX VALUES IN THE UPR                
20S.                                                                            
THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS THE                
FRONT COMES THROUGH.                                                            
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW +5C H8 AIR COMING IN LATE TONIGHT AND               
EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE             
THAT LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 20C WE                 
SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS FIRST                 
THING FRIDAY MORNING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH EXITS TOWARD NOON...SO THE            
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGH TEMPS                
ONLY AROUND 70.                                                                 
THE MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE GFS                
FURTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN THE NAM.  HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT              
WHICH HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...BUT GENERALLY THE GFS              
OUT PERFORMS THE NAM ON SUCH FEATURES.  THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE                
CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.                 
EVEN THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY             
NIGHT.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE AREA MID DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A             
SURGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  THE                
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE                  
SOUTH...BUT CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AS               
THE WAVE AND COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT                   
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                      
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE LONG TERM IS HOW MUCH OF A WARM            
UP WE WILL HAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE TREND IS FOR THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR HUDSON BAY TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND                
EVEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.  LOOKING AT THE 850 MB THERMAL                 
PATTERN FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE             
ARRIVING.  ALSO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE NOT NEARLY AS                
WARM 00Z TUE.  BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA THE INDICATION IS THAT WE              
WILL SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST MON INTO              
WED TIME FRAME WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF WARM UP.  I DID                
TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO                
CLIMATOLOGY.                                                                    
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CYCLONIC FLOW               
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA...THE PATTERN SHOULD TURN              
UNSETTLED. HOW MUCH OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WE SEE WILL DEPEND THE              
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA             
FOR A DAY OR TWO.  WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MENTION OF TRW/RW MON.             
WE MAY NEED TO ADD IT TO TUE OR WED FCST AS WELL.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(145 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                        
THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS FORECASTED WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL            
DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE                   
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM AND OCCUR MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US 131.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                         
WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE            
TODAY AS BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE REALIZED.  MIXING HEIGHTS COULD BE               
RATHER DEEP DRAGGING DOWN STIFF WINDS FROM ALOFT.  ANY STORMS THAT              
DEVELOP COULD INCREASE THE WIND AND WAVE POTENTIAL.  RIP CURRENTS               
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT SHORELINE WIDE AS THE WINDS AND WAVES PILE UP             
ON SHORE.  WILL RUN THE ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF                
HOLLAND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY... (418 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007)                                      
RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOMED ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN            
SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND                   
SATURDAY HOLD MORE PROMISE FOR A DECENT SOAKING RAIN...ESPECIALLY               
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE A LIMITED                
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST JOE TO HOLLAND FOR TODAY.  SMALL CRAFT             
ADVISORY HOLLAND TO MANISTEE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: MEADE/JK                                                            
LONG TERM: MJS                                                                  
AVIATION: CERU                                                                  
MARINE: JK                                                                      
HYDROLOGY: JK                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE CONFINED CHC POPS TO FAR NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.              
THINK WEAKENING FRONT OVER CNTRL IA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SEWD THIS              
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. 12Z               
NAM HAS FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT CAUSE EXCESSIVELY HIGH SFC MOISTURE                
CONVERGENCE/LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF                 
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND TO NEAR STL BY 00Z...SO WILL NOT USE                 
IT. KEPT LOW CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN                      
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH NAM/RUC HAVING ONLY                    
MEAGER VALUES OF MLCAPE (300-700 J/KG). DO HAVE 40-50KTS OF DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR...SO PER SPC SWODY1 THERE WILL BE A SMALL TIMEFRAME                 
FROM LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER NRN MO.               
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE            
CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DEEP TROF                 
OVER THE EAST.  THE MIDWEST IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO               
THE REGION.  RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A 30-40KT LLJ FEEDING MOISTURE             
INTO THE PLAINS AND SOME MOISTURE HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL            
AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS EVIDENCED BY MID              
CLOUDS WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER THESE AREAS.              
AM STILL NOT SURE THOUGH IF THERE`S GOING TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR             
MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO FORM.  THE NAM...AND              
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER IOWA AND                
NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE                   
CONVERGENCE ON THE LLJ AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE SURFACE COLD                 
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK            
THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE.  I THINK THE MCS WHICH IS CURRENTLY               
MOVING OVER PARTS OF KANSAS WILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FROM            
THE LLJ AND NOT ALLOW IT INTO OUR AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP            
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL             
BE CLOSER TO THE BEST QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND            
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE SURFACE             
COLD FRONT TO BREAK THE CAP.  COULD EVEN SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM              
OR TWO IF ENOUGH CAPE CAN DEVELOP AS THERE WILL BE AROUND 50KTS OF              
0-6KM SHEAR...BUT FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL                   
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY                    
DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT.  HAVE THEREFORE TWEAKED POPS            
DOWN A BIT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA EXCEPT NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH                
FRIDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY COME ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS            
ARE ADVERTISING A SIMILAR SITUATION TO TODAY`S.  HOWEVER...THE SAME             
CONCERNS IE. LACK OF MOISTURE...LACK OF FORCING...AND LACK OF                   
BUOYANCY APPLY ON SATURDAY.  HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED NOT TO ADD POPS             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD            
FOR MID-JULY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  NAM AND              
GFS TRY TO BRING SOME BRING SOME WARMER 850 MB AIR OFF THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO WE MIGHT SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM                
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND                   
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOK TO             
STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT              
INDEX READINGS.                                                                 
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                             
WEAKENING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD                   
ACROSS MO/IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY              
DRY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY               
ONE THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW HAVE TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS. HAVE VCTS                
AT KUIN 00-04Z ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE                
BEST...WITH JUST VCSH LATER TONIGHT AT KCOU/KSTL/KSUS. W-SWLY                   
WINDS WL BECOME LIGHT BY THIS EVENING...AND VARIABLE AS FRONT                   
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS REGION. WINDS WILL THEN TURN N-NELY AFT 12Z ON              
FRIDAY.                                                                         
BRITT                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NEW GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE ALIGNED THE GRIDS TO CORRESPOND WITH THE TIMING OF THE                     
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS ORIENTED WITH THE CONVECTION THAT                     
EXTENDS FROM ONEILL TO HARLAN. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN              
AREA OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 2000 J/KG OF                    
SURFACE BASED CAPE. SEE NO REASON WHY THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO             
FIRE ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING              
EARLIER IN THE MORNING WITH A 50DBZ CORE UP TO ABOUT 29000 FEET                 
WHICH DID PRODUCE SOME PENNY SIZED HAIL. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO                
USE THIS CRITERIA FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ONLY                 
RUNNING ABOUT 500 TO 500 J/KG...THUS DON`T SEE A DAMAGING WIND                  
THREAT MATERIALIZING JUST YET. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO                 
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD KOLU...KOMA AND KRDK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...            
THEN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST              
IOWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REGARDING TEMPS...SOME AREAS HAVE                   
ALREADY BOOSTED INTO THE MID 80S AS A RESULT OF SUNSHINE...SO                   
ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH REGION               
IN NWRLY FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVR SRN HUDSON BAY                  
AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.                  
LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HI PRESS EXTENDING FM              
ERN NEB AND ERN KS INTO MO WITH A SECONDARY HIGH TO OUR NW OVR THE              
DAKOTAS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DESCENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS                   
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA PER 00Z UAA AND LOCAL OBS. A FEW                
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP AND BEST INDICATION IS DUE TO WK          
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OFF SEEN OFF RUC ON 300K SFC AND WHERE                       
STRONGEST THETA E ADVECTION IS OCCURING.                                        
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THETA E ADVECTION              
CONTINUING THRU NOON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...THUS THE LOW POPS.             
CDFNT WL DROP DOWN FM THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NRN NEB BY 18Z TODAY                 
AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN                     
NEB/SWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MODERATE                      
INSTABILITY (3000J/KG SBCAPE) AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD              
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED HAIL CORES...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80...HOWEVER              
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS VERY WEAK. WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS TO              
COVER THIS AS CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. 00Z FORECAST MODELS                 
CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN AS HAVE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WITH              
THAT SAID...HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVR                
EXTREME SERN NEB/SWRN IA AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED IF LATER                  
MODEL RUNS SLOW THE FNT DOWN EVEN MORE.                                         
FRIDAY SHOULD BE LAST COOL DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                 
THE FORECAST AREA. WL SEE A WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEKEND AND                  
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE CNTRL                
PLAINS BY MID NEXT WEEK.                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...KOFK...                
KOMA AND KLNK...THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR                
ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING               
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET GOING DURING                
THE AFTERNOON...THEY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SERN NE. AT THIS TIME...             
THE CHANCE SEEMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KLNK AND KOMA TAFS.                  
FOR TONIGHT...IT APPEARS ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET               
WITH LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS              
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEWALD                                                                          
</pre> ne