FXUS04 KWBC 300708 PAA
QPFPFD

 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
307 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 01/1200 UTC THRU JUL 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...TX/OK EWD THRU THE GULF CST STATES...

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PD OF SIGNIFICANT CNVCTN FM CNTRL/ERN
TX AND CNTRL/ERN OK EWD INTO THE GULF CST STATES DUE TO
A COMBO OF STILL DEFINABLE SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY AND VRY
HI MSTR ALREADY IN PLACE.   MDL QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT HERE..WHICH ADDS SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO THE
FCST.   ONE S/WV NOW VCNTY OF THE AR/LA/MS BRDR WL MOV SLOLY
EWD ALG TOP OF SERN U.S. RDG..PRODUCING A SWATH OF ORGANIZED
CNVCTN FM NRN/CNTRL MS EWD INTO THE SRN APLCHNS.   STGR LLJ
RMNS W OF THIS REGION..BUT PWS ARE ALREADY ABV 2 INCHES
HERE..SO THE COMBO OF THIS HI MSTR AND SLO CELL MOVEMENT SHLD
RESULT IN SOME HVY RNFL AMTS.   FARTHER TO THE W..IMPULSE IN
EXTRM ERN NM WL LIFT SLOLY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RDG INTO
THE SRN PLAINS DURG THE PD.   THIS FEATURE WL HAVE A BTR LLJ
TO WORK WITH AND ALSO HAS ACCESS TO GTR THAN 2 INCH PWS..SO
AGAIN WIDESPREAD HVY TO ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINS LIKELY MUCH
OF CNTRL/ERN TX AND CNTRL/ERN OK INTO AR IN WHAT WL ALSO BE A
SLO MOVG CNVCTV REGIME.  


...CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...

NEG TILT S/WV LIFTING SLOLY NEWD THRU THE MEAN RDG PSN SHLD
IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF RATHER WIDESPREAD LT AFTN/NIGHTTIME
CNVCTN FM CO NNWWD INTO MT.   THE FCST OF PWS PUSHING 150-200
PCT OF NRML SHLD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HVIER RNFL AMTS..SO
LEANED TWDS THE SOMEWHAT HVIER GFS QPF SOLN HERE.   FARTHER
W..S/WV ENERGY SHEARING NEWD OUT OF NV/NERN CA INTO THE NRN
GT BASIN SHLD TRIGGER ENHANCED CNVCTN FM OR INTO ID AND
WRN MT..BUT WITH LESSER MSTR AVBL HERE..XPC GENLY LGT TO
MDT RNFL AMTS.



...NRN GTLKS WSWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...

THE NEXT PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CLOSED H5 CNTR DROPPING SEWD THRU
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND INTO THE EXTRM NRN GTLKS WL PRODUCE A
SWATH OF CNVCTN AHD OF IT INTO THE NRN GTLKS IN STG
DYNAMICS/HGT FALL REGIME..AND ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER CNVCTN ALG
TRAILING CDFNT BACK INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND NRN PLAINS.   THE
REALLY DEEP MSTR WL RMN TIED UP IN CNVCTN WELL TO THE S
OF THIS REGION..BUT POOLING OF PWS TO GTR THAN 1 INCH IN
SPOTS WL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME MDT RNFL TOTALS..ESP OVR THE
NRN GTLKS.

 
...NAME AREA....

VRY IMPRESSIVE TROF OFF THE SRN CA CST AND EXTENDING INLAND
INTO THE SWRN STATES CONTS TO PUT A SQUASH ON ANY MONSOONAL
CNVCTN OVR MUCH OF THE NRN AND CNTRL NAME AREA..WITH ONLY LGT
RAINS LIKELY WELL S..IN LN WITH GFS QPF SOLN.   



DAY 2...

...NERN CONUS...
UPR TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS STRONG S/WV MOVS ACRS
SERN CAN.  AS VORT MOVS EWD...AXIS OF TROF SHIFTS EWD AS WELL. 
SFC LOW AND CDFNT WILL MOV EWD AS WELL AND REACH NEW ENG AND
THE NRN MID-ATLC BY THE END OF THE PD.  DESPITE ONLY WK VORT
ENERGY AND UPR JET SUPPORT...THE ETA DEVELOPS STRONG UVV INVOF
THE DELMARVA TWD THE END OF THE PD.  THE OTHER MDLS DO NOT
DEVELOP THIS AREA AND THE ETA SOLN SEEMS A BIT ANOMALOUS.  PW
VALUES ARE INITIALLY BTWN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES WITH SLY TO SWLY LL
FLOW.  HOWEVER AFTER FROPA...WINDS BECOME MORE WLY AND PWS
DECREASE OVER NEW ENG AND THE NRN MID-ATLC.  HAVE TRENDED AWAY
FROM THE ETA MAXES...AND WENT CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE OTHER
MDLS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/SRN CONUS...
S/WV TROF OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOV EWD DURG
THE PD WITH STRONG VORT REMAINING OVER THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE PD.  THE ETA AND CAN BARELY HAVE ANY SFC
REFLECTION WHILE THE CAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL OVER THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES
ACRS THE SRN TIER.  THE ETA BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE LARGE S/W
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BRINGS IT SWD INTO N TX.  NO OTHER MDL
SUPPORTS THIS SOLN.  AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER S/WV...THE ETA
ALSO HAS HIGHER UVV AND GRTR QPF.  THE MAIN MDL DIFFS APPEAR TO
BE WITH THE S/WV DETAILS AND ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. 
HOWEVER...THE MDL CONSENSUS WUD LEAN AWAY FROM THE ETA SOLN
IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN
INUNDATED WITH PRECIP OF LATE.  WILL GO WITH A MDL BLEND ACRS THE
PLAINS AND SERN STATES.


..NRN PLAINS...
WK CDFNT AND S/WV WILL MOV ACRS THE PLAINS DURG THE PD.  THERE IS
SOME WK DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYS...AND PW REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...AOA
1.00 INCH.  THE ETA HAS BEEN BETTER ACRS THIS REGION OF
LATE...WITH
THE GFS HAVING SOME HIGH QPF THEN BACKING OFF.  THE ETA NUMBERS
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE CAN AND UKMET AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

..NAME AREA...
UPR TROF OVER THE W CST AND UPR RIDGE OVER MEX HAVE LEFT BARELY
ANYTHING TO TALK ABOUT ACRS THIS AREA.  EXPECT SOME SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.

TERRY/NIERENBERG

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 226051 234055 242061 259071 263072 267070 269064 267058 
      258045 256041 255035 255024 257011 260001 265996 274995 
      284994 296994 323992 331997 330000 327001 320002 311003 
      308006 308008 315015 323019 330020 334022 340024 344027 
      349030 352034 358043 359049 356053 350058 347061 349063 
      353065 361069 367072 372075 375081 378085 381087 386091 
      387091 389087 389083 391082 400087 408092 416088 419087 
      421088 424093 425098 424103 417112 406101 403106 400106 
      391112 399114 405115 411118 415119 423123 428125 431120 
      435119 439118 440120 435130 430137 425142 424148 421155 
      420163 419169 418173 410183 401189 393195 395203 391203 
      389205 395211 403218 405224 409228 412222 413216 407214 
      406211 403210 400208 404209 408212 411214 415215 419216 
      422214 425211 434207 441202 446195 456187 464178 466177 
      469178 472180 485187 493186 497185 500184 503187 511194 
      516200 521211 526220 528223 530222 535218 546178 545173 
      544168 546163 544158 543157 542152 541149 541147 541146 
      544147 547147 550146 553145 553144 
      558098 553090 546082 530072 514063 500052 489045 484040 
      478034 474027 469017 467013 466004 465996 463981 463968 
      463958 464952 466941 470921 473908 475905 478905 479909 
      480913 484918 486913 485898 486894 489889 494883 501879 
      507874 515868 522862 526859 528853 525837 524829 525823 
      526797 526782 525774 524768 516747 513744 510736 508733 
      504728 499724 494723 480727 475730 470732 462742 457750 
      453762 450772 449781 449804 447822 443843 441862 440880 
      438905 437918 436928 435956 434976 433987 431994 430997 
      427000 422005 405014 402012 399008 398001 399975 397960 
      396948 387928 383920 378912 375901 373890 370866 370857 
      369848 368832 368820 367809 367799 369790 371782 373773 
      374762 373750 371744 368737 362733 355733 348733 345732 
      342732 337737 333744 327761 321777 314791 309798 305802 
      302804 296808 292809 289806 284802 278799 272795 266793 
      261792 256793 249797 245801 243804 236818 235820 237823 
      243827 250828 255828 259830 260834 263836 268838 272837 
      278837 285835 290837 291843 291852 293861 294864 293869 
      294874 292879 287895 286904 288915 290926 291930 289936 
      271958 263967 257976 255979 251982 242986 235990 231994 
 0.01 501672 496660 491654 480644 470639 462637 455638 452642 
      449647 448653 448664 449672 450679 452685 454690 458693 
      468701 474706 481709 487709 493706 495706 497702 498699 
      500689 501686 502679 501672 
 0.01 447166 446165 443163 440164 439165 439169 439171 442170 
      443169 446168 447166 
 0.01 313857 312854 311851 311850 311851 310855 309856 309859 
      310862 311865 312867 312864 313861 313860 313857 
 0.25 503782 503775 502770 498761 494758 491755 486754 480757 
      474767 471772 469779 468785 468792 466807 465818 462832 
      460847 459860 457874 456881 457891 459893 461890 463885 
      466879 470874 473872 477873 480872 482869 485863 491853 
      503845 507840 508833 508825 505815 503806 503797 503786 
      503782 
 0.25 526149 527143 526140 522138 519139 512138 504137 495137 
      492140 491144 492153 493163 498167 502168 508165 512165 
      517163 522158 524155 526150 526149 
 0.25 528126 530120 529116 527111 528101 525096 522091 517088 
      514086 513091 514096 514104 514105 514110 516115 519120 
      521125 525127 528126 
 0.25 492108 493104 491101 488102 486103 486108 487110 490110 
      492108 
 0.25 473059 474052 473048 472043 469039 459030 455023 452013 
      448006 446004 442005 434019 425029 421037 417043 416049 
      414049 409048 400046 395042 390037 386035 381034 376034 
      374036 372041 375048 381052 391062 396066 404067 409067 
      413066 420062 425060 421054 421051 425049 430055 433072 
      436076 439078 448080 450083 455082 459077 468068 473059 
 0.25 451935 451931 450927 449927 449928 448932 447935 447936 
      447941 446945 446948 446949 446953 446957 446961 448964 
      449961 449957 449952 450948 450944 450940 451936 451935 
 0.25 436193 435189 431191 430188 429186 426186 424183 421185 
      421189 422192 423193 425191 427191 428191 430192 431193 
      434194 436193 
 0.25 360765 358761 356759 352758 350759 345764 340770 335782 
      330795 326809 325816 325825 325839 325853 325872 324888 
      324895 322902 320908 318913 298934 293946 286956 269974 
      265978 262984 266985 273984 280985 289985 303982 318980 
      331980 346982 351985 358991 363994 369996 373992 376985 
      378976 378967 378962 379957 381947 379939 377934 369919 
      365911 362903 359893 358881 357849 357831 356812 357797 
      359785 360773 360765 
 0.25 261808 260807 258808 255808 252809 250809 248812 247813 
      249816 252815 254814 254813 256812 258810 261808 261808 
 0.25 228036 230037 231038 232037 231034 231033 229031 228029 
 0.50 490804 490799 489795 486792 483795 480801 475810 471819 
      468831 465844 464850 465854 467856 473853 475849 482839 
      486834 489829 489814 490804 
 0.50 512156 511153 511152 509148 506148 503150 506154 508155 
      509156 511157 512156 
 0.50 468051 467046 462044 459041 456038 452033 449030 446025 
      443020 440024 439028 441032 444033 447037 450041 453045 
      456048 462048 466051 468051 
 0.50 451076 450072 447069 444069 442072 444074 447074 449076 
      450077 451076 
 0.50 352777 351773 348774 344778 340784 338790 334799 333804 
      333811 333825 332839 332852 330862 329891 327902 324913 
      319924 315928 311932 306936 303940 299949 283965 281969 
      282977 285981 289981 301977 307975 313971 317970 321970 
      330971 343974 355977 359980 365982 368982 370980 372975 
      373968 372958 373949 375942 372935 370931 363921 358908 
      355900 353890 352876 352865 352848 352833 350819 349808 
      352777 
 1.00 346838 343839 343840 341843 341844 341847 340851 340852 
      341854 344855 345853 346849 346846 345842 346840 346838 
 1.00 365937 358932 353925 348916 344912 341907 341901 341893 
      340872 337873 336876 335884 335894 335905 335910 334915 
      331920 325935 326939 328944 333950 345958 351961 360961 
      363958 363952 362946 363941 365937  
 
24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 566041 562033 558031 551022 536002 529995 522989 517987 
      513987 506989 502993 498999 493995 485984 478976 476974 
      473974 466978 460980 455985 447988 439990 427994 425995 
      425004 419013 414008 415994 413973 412947 411924 411889 
      406865 404842 404836 404835 397796 402784 406775 411771 
      416768 421772 425777 431785 433788 435795 438803 441808 
      445814 450815 456811 463808 468807 473807 478809 483812 
      489814 495816 501816 507815 513811 517804 519789 520771 
      518737 516720 513704 510695 506686 503683 501680 500677 
      498662 493645 487637 483633 473630 469629 464630 454631 
      448632 441637 435639 431645 427652 424660 421671 417683 
      413694 410697 409701 407704 403708 397712 387718 379723 
      368729 362732 357734 356729 354726 353726 347726 341726 
      337722 332723 323730 317736 314740 305750 301755 298757 
      290767 278781 271789 263796 258799 252802 245806 241809 
      242812 244818 247820 255825 258834 265842 270849 276859 
      281868 283874 279897 282911 286920 288926 289932 291948 
      293967 297978 299982 304983 311976 314976 314979 317987 
      322996 326001 333004 339011 346023 349027 353030 357035 
      360040 369058 375069 377072 383073 388072 391071 395068 
      398063 400059 404057 407059 414065 422076 426082 429089 
      429108 430121 429131 427139 425148 422155 415166 407173 
      404178 400182 393187 388190 387194 388197 387201 390205 
      409216 415224 419225 422225 427223 432218 441209 445203 
      449199 455191 463179 470168 473158 475149 476139 475132 
      474122 473115 472108 473099 474084 476080 478077 482076 
      485077 488082 490101 491115 492124 492132 484146 483156 
      485162 489180 492191 493199 495208 499214 503220 507225 
      508233 507241 504251 505258 508267 509274 509287 511295 
 0.01 291075 289070 285067 280061 274056 272053 269051 266053 
      259057 254063 252065 252072 256078 264084 270087 277087 
      282085 285082 291075 
 0.25 553108 554100 554092 549079 542058 538048 536043 531040 
      525034 522032 517031 513034 513040 517049 520054 522059 
      522063 520065 517068 512070 510073 511081 514085 519092 
      522106 525115 530126 534132 537134 539134 542132 548123 
      552112 553108 
 0.25 511762 509758 508756 506757 503760 502763 501764 499768 
      499770 497773 497776 496779 496782 497785 498785 501788 
      504789 507786 507784 509781 509778 510775 511772 511767 
      511765 511762 
 0.25 495738 494734 491731 487729 477729 475728 474723 474718 
      477702 472701 467701 456704 452707 447708 437707 428707 
      422707 419709 417714 406734 406739 408743 413747 419746 
      427747 432748 436751 440752 443750 447749 452750 460756 
      465757 470757 479754 486751 492745 495738 
 0.25 504026 503021 501019 497015 491014 484012 480009 476004 
      472998 468993 464992 461994 455997 451000 448002 445006 
      443012 441016 438019 433019 429018 426019 424022 423026 
      426034 429039 435044 440054 445059 450062 458069 462071 
      465071 471068 481061 487046 486042 487039 488035 489034 
      492035 496034 501031 504026 
 0.25 401943 400931 392920 387914 382905 375887 372872 379861