FXUS63 KJKL 170921
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 AM EST WED NOV 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING 
FOR THE BEGINNING OF RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  TODAY'S 
SHORTWAVE IS STARTING OUT A STATE FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY'S S/W 
AND WILL BE TAKING A BIT MORE NORTH AND EAST ROUTE...NOT BRINGING 
ITS ASSOCIATED PVA AND LIFT SO CLOSE TO E KY.  ELSEWHERE...TEXAS' 
CLOSE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS MOVES NORTHEAST...BRINGING THE 
AREA DECENT RAIN CHC FOR EARLY FRI.  OTHERWISE WE ARE PUT IN 
PERSISTENT S/W FLOW AS A LONGWAVE WESTERN TROUGH IDLES...DELAYING 
OUR NEXT COLD SHOT CLOSER TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT ALLOWING WEAK 
WAVES TO RIDE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW.

THEREFORE...TODAY...WILL KEEP GOING FORECAST OF SLT TO CHC POPS FOR 
LIGHT SHOWERS.  CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY 
EAST BEFORE S/W FOCUSES PRECIP TO OUR NORTHEAST.  LOOKING FOR TEMPS 
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS STARTING 
OUT AND H8 WAA.

BOTH META/GFS FOCUSING IN ON AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT ACROSS FAR 
EAST KY...WV/VA...BUT DIDN'T BUY INTO THIS TOO MUCH AS S/W AXIS WILL 
BE PASSING OR HAVE PASSED THE AREA.  PAINTED QPF LINGERS INTO 
MORNING.  NW FLOW THROUGH THE MOIST LAYER EXCEPT AT THE SFC.  SO 
ONLY HAVE CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST.  WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE 
NEXT FEW NIGHTS...AND WILL FLIRT WITH THE MAX LOW FOR THE MONTH AT 
JKL.

ALTHOUGH MOS POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE SHORT/MID 
RANGES...SEEING NO MAJOR TRIGGERS FOR THE RAIN UNTIL FRI WHEN THE TX 
WAVE APPROACHES.  THAT FEATURE HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST.  
AFTER ITS PASSAGE THOUGH...AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR AND PRECIP 
CHC GET HARDER TO PINPOINT.  THEREFORE WENT DRY THU AND THU 
EVENING...BRINGING SLT CHC POPS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAWN FRI.

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED...SLOWING TREND WITH WESTERN LONGWAVE 
TROUGH...KEEPING US ON THE WARMER SIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK 
AND DELAYING THE COLD SHOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.  ONLY CHANGE MADE 
THIS GO AROUND TO LONG RANGE WAS TO BUMP MAX T UP FOR SAT...BUT MEX 
NUMBER COMING IN WARMER FOR DAY 6/7.  FORECAST PACKAGE ON ITS WAY 
OUT.   

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1110 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2004

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CNTRL KY GRADUALLY 
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. BOTH THE META AND GFS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF 
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 290K LEVEL...AND SHIFT IT EASTWARD. BOTH 
MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THIS AREA OF LIFT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...BUT NOT 
BEFORE THE AREA REACHES OUR EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN 
COUNTIES. SO UPDATED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTH 
AND SOUTHWEST...WITH A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR VERY SLOW TO FALL WITH ALL THE CLOUD 
COVER...AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RISING JUST A TAD. WAS TEMPTED TO 
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT TEMPS HAVE FINALLY MADE A MOVE 
DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST WHERE LOWER DEW 
POINTS HAVE APPARENTLY HELPED THINGS ALONG. CONSIDERING THAT WE ONLY 
HAVE TO DROP ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO DROP BEFORE BEING IN THE 
GENERAL BALL PARK...DECIDED TO LEAVE TEMPS AS THEY ARE. 
HOWEVER...DID WIND UP ADJUSTING TEMP PARAMETERS AND WINDS IN THE ISC 
GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH CURRENT OBS...TRENDS. 

UPDATED ZONES FOR PRECIP...ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

455 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2004

S/W AND ASSOCIATED PVA HAS EXITED AND ALL SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY 
HAS CEASED. NEXT PLAYER IS ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE 
BACKSIDE OF THE NOW BUCKLED RIDGE IN GREAT LAKES. AFTER EXPERIENCING 
THE POPS THAT OCCURRED TODAY. HAVE HEADED GUIDANCE BETTER WITH THIS 
SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 
CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY...SO AGAIN HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS TO COVER. MODELS 
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON DEVELOPING A PLAINS LOW. AFOREMENTIONED WEAK 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP NEAR THE OH RIVER LATE 
THURSDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THIS NORTH AS A 
WARM FRONT. MAIN PRECIP OF OUR CONCERN FOR FRIDAY WILL ARRIVE IN THE 
FORM OF A LEAD S/W. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 40 BETWEEN THIS FEATURE 
AND GENERAL UPGLIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOWARDS THE BOUNDARY. 

EXTENDED...CONTINUED CONSENSUS OF AN AT LEAST PARTIALLY UNSETTLED 
WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE A LULL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING IN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. STILL MAINTAINED 40 POPS LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY INTO 
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS SUNDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS 
STILL OFF TO THE WEST. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED MUCH COLDER FOR 
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEAK...AS DEEPER PREDICTED TROUGH SLINGS IN 
COLD AIR. WE'LL SEE IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS.


1147 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2004

SFC...85H AND 50H CHARTS INDICATE THE WEAK TROF THAT TRACKED ACROSS 
THE PLAINS RIDGE YESTERDAY HAS MIXED WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE OH 
RVR VLY TO PRODUCE THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY. SO FAR MOST AREAS OF ERN KY 
HAVE RECORDED A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH NOT MUCH MORE 
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN 
COUNTIES...BUT EVEN THERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO ONLY A COUPLE 
OF HUNDREDTHS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE 
RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER AND EVEN 
BECOME LOWER. FOR AVIATION PURPOSES...THE FCST WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 
SUNSET AND WILL APPROACH IFR BY DAWN. 

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS REPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL ALSO 
RESTRICT RADIATION TONIGHT. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND AND 
ONLY UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR MORNING WORDING AND REFRESH 
POPS FOR EXPECTED PCPN PATTERN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
OUDEMAN