AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
630 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN KENTUCKY AT 11Z                
THIS MORNING.  THIS IS ON TARGET WITH PREVIOUS 00Z GFS MODEL RUN AND            
CURRENT 06Z GFS MODEL RUN.  WILL USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUC AND              
00Z/06Z GFS MODEL RUNS FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.                                    
SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SE OHIO BY 18Z... CNTRL              
LAKE ERIE BY 00Z...THEN OVER SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT            
ASSOCD WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPR LVL JET...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING             
MID LVL DEFORMATION ASSOCD WITH 700 MB LOW...WILL PRODUCE THE                   
HEAVIEST SNOW AT KFWA THIS AFTN.  SNOW WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AT                
KSBN AS THIS TAF SITE WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF GREATEST              
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  EITHER WAY...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL                       
DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS AFTN INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES.                     
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND AFOREMENTIONED                  
LOW...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT ADDING MOISTURE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE               
SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE                  
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30                  
KNOTS.  THE SNOW AND WIND WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING OF                    
SNOW...SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS AFTER 00Z.  CIGS/VSBYS                 
WILL REMAIN IN IFR CATEGORY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
CONCERNS ARE MANY AND REVOLVE AROUND UPGRADE OF CURRENT WATCH AND               
WESTWARD EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LAKE                 
ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                
EARLY THIS MORNING VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CARVING             
OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. QUICKLY                    
EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE INDICATIVE OF A                 
RAPIDLY DEEPENING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. EVERY SINGLE RUN OF THE GFS             
SINCE THE 00Z/03 ITERATION HAS TRENDED STEADILY WEST WITH SURFACE               
AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE               
FALLS WOULD SUGGEST A TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE              
ENVELOPE. DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE EVOLVING TROUGH AND STEADILY                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WOULD ALSO            
SUGGEST LEANING TOWARDS THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE 00Z GEM AND GFS              
WITH A HIGH 970S MB LOW JUST WEST OF TORONTO AT 12Z SUN. EVERYTHING             
IS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND              
GREAT LAKES. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING INTENSE MESOSCALE                   
BANDING STRUCTURE TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA EARLY THIS                
MORNING.                                                                        
FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION...H7 LOW WILL            
QUICKLY CLOSE OFF AND DEEPEN TODAY AS IT MOVES ALONG A TRACK FROM               
NEAR FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE NW                
OHIO AND EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA IN THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW             
JUST LEFT OF THE H7 LOW TRACK. GFS FORECAST DEFORMATION FIELDS                  
SUPPORT THE OLD RULE OF THUMB WITH THE H7 AXIS OF DILATATION PASSING            
OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO TAKE ON A               
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE CLOSING OFF FULLY TONIGHT. BELIEVE                
THIS WILL HELP PULL MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WEST INTO OUR CENTRAL               
ZONES AS WELL. TONIGHT AS SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY            
DEEPEN A SECONDARY DEFORMATION AXIS WILL LIKELY FORM FROM OUR NW                
COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. DEEP CYCLONIC                
FLOW WILL PULL IN MARGINALLY COLD AIR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT BY LATE              
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO PRODUCE HIGHER              
SNOWFALL TOTALS SE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED            
FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH TONIGHT. INITIALLY WARM             
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL CREATE A WET SNOWPACK TODAY...BUT COOLING             
TEMPS TONIGHT COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL ALLOW                       
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING TO DEVELOP.                                       
BREAKING IT DOWN...WILL BE UPGRADING THE ENTIRE WATCH TO A WINTER               
STORM WARNING. PREVIOUS WATCH HIGHLIGHTED EASTERN HALF OF THE WATCH             
AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMS. PROBLEM HERE IS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS              
WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE START...THEN SLOWLY                  
COOLING ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE. FARTHER WEST IN            
THE WATCH WHILE QPF WILL BE LOWER PRECIP WILL GO ALL SNOW EARLIER.              
HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES TOTAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE              
WARNING AREA. WEST OF THE WARNING WILL HOIST A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW            
ADVISORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. FINALLY...WILL ALSO HOIST A SNOW             
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NW ZONES. THIS ADVISORY WILL HAVE             
A LATER START TIME...THIS AFTERNOON...AS BEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOES             
NOT SET UP UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SNOW                 
TOTALS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE 3 TO 5 ACROSS CENTRAL                       
ZONES...WITH 4 TO 6 IN THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES IN FAVORED                
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SECONDARY DEFORMATION AXIS AREAS.                          
THANKS TO GRR...DTX...CLE...ILN...IND AND HPC FOR THE EXTENSIVE                 
COLLABORATION ON HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS.                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                          
WITH ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS IN            
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                          
A DEEP SFC LOW IS FCST TO BE OVER SRN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.                
GIVEN THE DEEPENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH BROAD CYCLONIC            
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND IT...AM INCLINE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS               
ACRS THE NORTHEAST CWFA AS SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART TO THE                  
NORTHEAST.  IN ADDITION...LONG FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...COMBINED              
WITH DELTA T/S APPROACHING 15 C...SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE (MEAN 310-320 LOW LVL FLOW AS IT CURVES            
INWARD OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE LAKE). AS A RESULT...LIKELY POPS                
WILL BE PLACE IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA...WITH CHC            
POPS ELSEWHERE.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE                            
LIGHTER...RANGING FROM A HALF INCH FAR SWRN CWFA TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES             
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL                
CONTINUE...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS              
UP TO 35 MPH...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF SNOW.               
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM THAT MUCH FROM SUNDAY MORNINGS                       
LOWS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.                       
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST                
INTO QUEBEC.  THUS...SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS SHOULD COME TO                        
END...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER ON ACRS THE NE CWFA DURING             
THE EVENING HOURS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHC OF LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS                  
DELTA/TS REMAIN FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP            
SOME.  OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 20 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO              
THE UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE APPEAR ON TRACK.                                      
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPR LVL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACRS              
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THE POTENTIAL                
EXITS FOR PERHAPS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS                
PERIOD...BUT TIMING OF WEAK S/WVS IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND DEPTH OF                
MOISTURE ARE STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A              
DRY FORECAST ATTM.                                                              
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW.             
IT LOOKS LIKE AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS IN THE OFFING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS            
THE UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALL THE             
WAY UP INTO WRN CANADA...WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY             
     FOR INZ007-INZ009-INZ018-INZ026-INZ027-INZ033-INZ034.                      
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM              
     EST SUNDAY FOR INZ005-INZ006-INZ008-INZ016-INZ017-INZ024-                  
     INZ025-INZ032.                                                             
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS               
     AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ003-INZ004-                 
     INZ014.                                                                    
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY             
     FOR MIZ081.                                                                
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM              
     EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079-MIZ080.                                              
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM            
     EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078.                                              
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY             
     FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.               
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR               
     LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                          
LONG TERM....HICKMAN                                                            
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1020 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...XTRMLY BUSY SHIFT. STILL SORTING THRU REPORTS IN                      
FREDERICK/CARROLL MD TRYING TO DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENED. COLDER AIR              
NOW MOVG IN. WSW RMNS INTACT...AS DOES SCA.                                     
WOODY!                                                                          
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
LOW PRES OVR THE NRN WV PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SRN ONTARIO              
TONIGHT WITH STRONG CDFNT SWEEPING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS                     
EVENING. LATEST GFS AND RUC40 SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION                 
ACCOMPANYING FRONT AROUND 00Z. THIS LINE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY ON                 
REGIONAL RADARS OVER SWRN VA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND OF                 
SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN PA BY 03Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT                   
PARTIAL CLEARING E OF THE MTNS WITH UPSLOPE SHSN PICKING UP OVER                
THE HIGHLANDS. WINTER WX ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS AS FLOW                
MAINLY WESTERLY NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR BIG SNOWS.                                
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MTN SHSN. A FEW                  
FLURRIES COULD ALSO MAKE IT EAST OF THE MTNS AS UPPER LVL ENERGY                
PASSES BY AROUND H5 LOW OVER SRN ONTARION. TEMPS BACK TO                        
SEASONABLE NORMS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
SUN NGT WILL FEATURE SCTD SN SHWRS CONTINUING IN THE                            
WEST...PRIMARILY IN THE ALLEG FRONT REGION...DUE TO WEAK U/L                    
IMPULSES IN THE BASE OF MAJOR TROUGH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AND LAKE                
ENHANCEMENTS. E OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.                            
ALTHOUGH PATTERN SHIFT IS GOING TO BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM...IN                
REALITY TEMPS WILL GNRLY BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THIS EXTENDED                 
PERIOD FOR LATE WINTER. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE                
20S. THIS IS NORMAL. DEEP TROUGHING HWVR WILL BE PERSISTENT                     
BASICALLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WE SEE NO REASON FOR THIS                   
PATTERN TO CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. HWVR W/O ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS TO MOVE             
INTO THE REGION...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG SNOW MAKERS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL             
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SN SWRS HWVR DUE TO            
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT THE GRT LKS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CONDTIONS THRU 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF A TSTM THRU                 
00Z. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z WITH A SW WIND 10-15KT.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY               
DUE TO RATHER STRONG PRES GRAD DUE TO CAA FLOW AND WRLYS. SCA MAY               
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDWEEK IF PATTERN HOLDS.                           
TIDE/WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED                  
LEVELS BUT THESE LEVELS ARE NOW BELOW OUR LOCALLY DEFINED THRESHOLDS            
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...THEREFORE WE HAVE ALLOWED THE CSTL FLD             
STMT TO EXPIRE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.                
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.                
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048-049-054 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM                
     MONDAY.                                                                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
255 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
LOW PRES OVR THE NRN WV PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SRN ONTARIO              
TONIGHT WITH STRONG CDFNT SWEEPING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS                     
EVENING. LATEST GFS AND RUC40 SHOWS A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION                 
ACCOMPANYING FRONT AROUND 00Z. THIS LINE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY ON                 
REGIONAL RADARS OVER SWRN VA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND OF                 
SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN PA BY 03Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT                   
PARTIAL CLEARING E OF THE MTNS WITH UPSLOPE SHSN PICKING UP OVER                
THE HIGHLANDS. WINTER WX ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS AS FLOW                
MAINLY WESTERLY NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR BIG SNOWS.                                
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MTN SHSN. A FEW                  
FLURRIES COULD ALSO MAKE IT EAST OF THE MTNS AS UPPER LVL ENERGY                
PASSES BY AROUND H5 LOW OVER SRN ONTARION. TEMPS BACK TO                        
SEASONABLE NORMS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
SUN NGT WILL FEATURE SCTD SN SHWRS CONTINUING IN THE                            
WEST...PRIMARILY IN THE ALLEG FRONT REGION...DUE TO WEAK U/L                    
IMPULSES IN THE BASE OF MAJOR TROUGH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AND LAKE                
ENHANCEMENTS. E OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.                            
ALTHOUGH PATTERN SHIFT IS GOING TO BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM...IN                
REALITY TEMPS WILL GNRLY BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THIS EXTENDED                 
PERIOD FOR LATE WINTER. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE                
20S. THIS IS NORMAL. DEEP TROUGHING HWVR WILL BE PERSISTENT                     
BASICALLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WE SEE NO REASON FOR THIS                   
PATTERN TO CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. HWVR W/O ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS TO MOVE             
INTO THE REGION...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG SNOW MAKERS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL             
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SN SWRS HWVR DUE TO            
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT THE GRT LKS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CONDTIONS THRU 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF A TSTM THRU                 
00Z. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z WITH A SW WIND 10-15KT.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY               
DUE TO RATHER STRONG PRES GRAD DUE TO CAA FLOW AND WRLYS. SCA MAY               
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDWEEK IF PATTERN HOLDS.                           
TIDE/WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED                  
LEVELS BUT THESE LEVELS ARE NOW BELOW OUR LOCALLY DEFINED THRESHOLDS            
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...THEREFORE WE HAVE ALLOWED THE CSTL FLD             
STMT TO EXPIRE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.                
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.                
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048-049-054 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM                
     MONDAY.                                                                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROSA                                                               
LONG TERM...JB                                                                  
AVIATION...ROSA                                                                 
MARINE...JB                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1100 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
FCST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE BUT UPDATED SECOND PERIOD TO ADD                   
THUNDER AND INCREASE POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AS LATEST GFS AND               
RUC SHOW A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING FRONT AROUND 00Z.             
THIS LINE IS ALREADY SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY AFFECTING SRN WV AND SWRN            
VA. REST OF THE FCST LEFT ALONE.                                                
ROSA                                                                            
PREVIOUS AFD...                                                                 
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT            
LAKES...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO INDIANA. ANOTHER LOW WAS              
LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY                 
WEAVING INTO NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTH OVER THE GULF             
OF MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID                  
30S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S.                                         
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING             
TO THE WEST...AND THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL                 
ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE POSITION             
OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. FOR            
NOW...EXPECTING RAIN TO REACH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA            
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...AND QUICKLY PUSH NORTH. WARMING AHEAD OF THE               
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL             
FOR THUNDER. COLDER AIR ARRIVES AFTER 00Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND               
WILL HELP TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE WEST. WINTER PRECIPITATION              
ONLY ADVANCES AS FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...STILL                   
LEAVING RAIN IN THE EAST. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES ARE                    
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO                
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW                  
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL REACH KCHO               
AROUND 12Z...AND THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BY 15Z. WINDS                
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AND             
VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM...LOCALLY DOWN TO 1SM IN HEAVIER RAIN...ARE             
ALSO EXPECTED...MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
EASTERN CONTINENTAL TROF AND WINTER FINALLY RETURNS AFTER A MONTH               
AND A HALF OFF. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE                
UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE NOTHING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD... BUT AFTER               
THE PAST FEW WEEKS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED AROUND HERE... IT WILL              
FEEL PRETTY COLD. TIME TO FIND THE WINTER COATS AGAIN.                          
BY 12Z SUN THE ENTIRE FA IS BETWEEN MINUS 2 AND MINUS 8 AT 850MB...             
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST E OF LAKE HURON... AND THE                
ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD BE A              
BLUSTERY COOL AND RATHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. UPSLOPE             
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO                
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. SEVERAL INCHES OF UPSLOPE SNOW ARE                
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE EASTERN CONT DIVIDE FROM LATE                    
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WATCH WILL             
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR MOST OF OUR            
AREA ON SUNDAY ONLY SOME COLD ADV STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL                  
SOUNDING DO NOT INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU EVENT... BUT PROB                
ENOUGH FOR A BORDERLINE SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK.                                  
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT A BREEZE WILL REMAIN.             
MONDAY A SHORT WAVE PASSES WELL TO OUR S WITH 850MB TMPS EVEN COLDER            
RANGING FROM MINUS 8 TO MINUS 13 ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF             
THE WEEK... COLD TEMPS AND CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING CHC TO SLGHT                
CHCS OF QUICK SNOW EVENTS. NO MAJOR STORMS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING            
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE            
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST.              
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.           
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY               
EVENING. EXPECT THEM TO FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA AFTER THAT AND INTO            
MONDAY. POSSIBILITY OF GALES ON SUNDAY... BUT AT THIS POINT THINK A             
STRONG SMALL CRAFT EVENT IS MORE LIKELY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.                    
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MDZ002 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM                   
     MONDAY.                                                                    
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VAZ021 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM                   
     MONDAY.                                                                    
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WVZ048-049-054 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1              
     AM MONDAY.                                                                 
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM         
     MONDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ALLEN                                                              
LONG TERM...STRONG                                                              
AVIATION...ALLEN                                                                
MARINE...ALLEN/STRONG                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1123 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA AND GFS, NAM AND RUC RUNS           
ON GOING FCST PKG ON TARGET. QUIET TIME NOW BUT WX GETS ACTIVE THIS PM.         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 514 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
LOW CLOUDS EXITED THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG              
PERSISTED LATE THIS MORNING IN SOME AREAS.  TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW             
FREEZING IN SOME FOGGY AREAS OF WESTERN MA AND SW NH...THUS SOME                
BLACK ICE MAY BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK.                                       
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT                
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS HEADED OUR WAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST              
KY AND EASTERN TN WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE EASTERN               
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  ITS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE NEW ENGLAND              
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ITS COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  LOTS OF             
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MTNS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF               
THE CAROLINA COAST AT THE MOMENT.  RAIN WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH                
TODAY...OVERSPREADING CT...RI...AND SE MA AROUND 3-4 PM AND REACHING            
SOUTHERN NH BY THIS EVENING.  THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS               
EVENING AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS              
ALSO A CHANCE OF A TSTM...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.  BOTH GFS AND              
NAM BRING BATCH OF TOTAL TOTAL INDICES OF 50+ FROM SW TO NE ACROSS              
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THE ETA APPEARS TOO SLOW.                      
E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH SOUTH                
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  RAINFALL TOTALS            
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE STORM WE JUST HAD YESTERDAY...GENERALLY                
0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOIST...BUT SHOULD NOT             
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE                
INDICATES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE FLOODING.           
AFTER COOL FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE              
SOUTHWEST AND THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING OVER THE CAPE AND               
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH.                 
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FOR POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY IF FORECASTING              
ANY STRONGER.  SINCE THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL              
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE UPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY TO BE IN LINE            
WITH NEW GUIDANCE...ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 SE AREAS AND 40 TO 45 NW AREAS             
SUNDAY.                                                                         
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION             
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH              
THE EAST WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...                
APPEARS THAT ANY THREATENING WEATHER WILL STEER CLEAR THROUGH MID               
WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.                                                           
AS THE LOW SPINS ITS WAY INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL             
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.  COULD               
GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS            
WILL OCCUR RIGHT NOW.  THE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH               
MID WEEK.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS                  
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AT AROUND 3-4KFT WHICH                 
COULD HANG THE CLOUDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BREAK UP            
AND SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY.                                    
WITH THE LOW IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO            
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR                 
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONLY POTENTIAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE PASSING           
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER ALABAMA             
AND MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY...AND WILL EXIT THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY             
NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE NOW.                   
GFS HINTING AT A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK              
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY...AS SEEN WITH THE                 
STRONG 850 HPA TEMPERATURE PACKING AS IT APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY.             
BY THEN...THE CANADIAN VORTEX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE                
COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE REGION.  WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY              
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT COULD PICK UP AGAIN LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY             
NIGHT.  NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THIS TIMING...WHICH IS DEPENDENT               
UPON THE EXIT OF THE CANADIAN VORTEX...SO STUCK TO THE CONTINUITY OF            
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                          
APPEARS THE NEXT THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE WITH A                  
CLIPPER SYSTEM DURING THURSDAY THAT WORKS SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH                
CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE RIDGE.  PREVIOUS FORECAST              
COVERED THIS WELL...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE IN QUESTION BASED ON THE               
00Z GFS RUN.  HOWEVER...WITH SOME MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THIS               
SYSTEM...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PATCHY IFR CONDS IN GROUND FOG UNTIL 13Z MAINLY AT BAF AND ACK.                 
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 6000 FT TO 12000 FT BETWEEN 15              
AND 18Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH             
BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z...THEN IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN AND FOG WITH            
A CHANCE OF TSTMS AFT 00Z.                                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
IN THE SHORT TERM...SEAS UP AT 8 FT AT BUZZARDS BAY DUE TO SW FLOW.             
SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND E THIS AFTERNOON...BUT E TO             
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS.  SW WINDS WILL              
INCREASE TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH            
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS FROM MONTAUK TO                   
PROVINCETOWN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12 FT ON             
SUNDAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST               
FORECASTS.                                                                      
IN THE LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OFFSHORE               
WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN TO MONTAUK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES             
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW              
THAT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO                 
NORTHERN QUEBEC...THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO               
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  WINDS COULD SURGE BRIEFLY                 
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRY ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE             
WATERS...BUT TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION SO WILL HOLD OFF              
ON THAT FOR NOW.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.           
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ232>235-237-250 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.             
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11               
     PM SATURDAY.                                                               
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM                 
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER             
THE CONUS WITH A DEEPENING TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF             
MEXICO. STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN TROF IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING               
OFF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER FAR SE LWR MI. NW EDGE OF COLD                          
CONVEYOR/DEFORMATION PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS                        
OCCASIONALLY SLIPPED INTO THE ERN FCST AREA...AND IR SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE IS EDGING W ACROSS E HALF OF UPPER            
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF            
-SN STREAMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING UNDER NRLY FLOW. TO THE            
W...LES HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER WRN UPPER MI...BUT HAS BEEN                     
GENERALLY LIGHT. KIWD OB HAS SHOWN VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT                   
TIMES...BUT CALLS TO SPOTTERS IN THAT AREA INDICATED SNOW WAS NOT               
VERY HVY...A COUPLE OF INCHES DURING THE AFTN UP TO 23Z. HEAVIER                
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE BORDER IN NW WI...PERHAPS            
FROM LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. THE AREA NW OF KIWD TOWARD LITTLE            
GIRLS POINT MIGHT BE SEEING HEAVIER LES...BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO               
REACH ANY SPOTTERS IN THAT AREA. MORE RECENTLY...KIWD OB HAS SHOWN              
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY...AND SPOTTERS IN KIWD VCNTY HAVEN'T                   
REPORTED ANY INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY THIS EVENING.                           
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBILITY OF REISSUING                   
HEADLINES FOR THE FAR W WITH LONG FETCH ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.               
MODELS INDICATE LOWEST 850MB TEMPS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR (-12 TO               
-13C) WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SOUNDINGS FROM EARLY EVENING FLIGHTS               
OUT OF CYQT AND KDLH. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...DEEP MOISTURE FROM                 
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM TO THE SE NEVER QUITE SPREADS AS FAR W AS WRN               
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LEAVES RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BLO                
INVERSION BASED BTWN 900-850MB PER 00Z RUC/21Z LOCAL LAPSWRF RUN. IN            
ADDITION...FLOW ABOVE 950MB HAS ENOUGH OF AN ERLY COMPONENT TO BE               
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY            
HEAVIER SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO THE W OF KIWD. BELIEVE TOTAL                  
NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVY OVER ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC             
COUNTIES...THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE FROM THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS TO               
NEAR/JUST W OF KIWD. A BIT TO THE E...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EDGING               
W...SNOW/WIND HAS INCREASED SOME RECENTLY ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA             
WITH SPOTTER AT MOHAWK REPORTING ABOUT 1/4SM VSBY IN SN/BLSN AS OF              
0110Z. NNE FLOW IS CERTAINLY NOT THE BEST FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON              
THE KEWEENAW...AND IT ALSO MINIMIZES OVERALL EXPOSURE TO STRONG                 
WINDS AND THUS WIDESPREAD BLSN. WHILE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION             
BLSN ON THE KEWEENAW...DON'T BELIEVE BLSN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH             
TO SUPPORT ADVY...AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF                     
ADDITIONAL SNOW THERE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER E...NCNTRL UPPER MI IS IN              
MUCH BETTER SHAPE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH             
HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN EXPANSION/INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF SNOW                 
ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI. FAVORABLE UPSLOPING              
N/NNE FLOW WILL FURTHER BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.              
MIGHT SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN                
FROM CHAMPION TO NEGAUNEE...SKANDIA TO WRN ALGER COUNTY. CONSIDERED             
ADDING BARAGA COUNTY TO ADVY GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT                 
MARGINAL ADVY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA             
OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 355 PM EST                                        
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES FOR THE                 
SHORT-TERM.                                                                     
CURRENT WEATHER...20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
WITH RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND IN THE NORTHEAST. A                
SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN ROTATING NE THROUGH THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS                
AREA AND A 993MB LOW WAS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE IN FAR SE OHIO NEAR            
THE TIP OF THE SHRTWV. THIS LOW IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER A BROAD                   
120-140KT JET THAT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO MAINE              
THAT WAS SEEN ON THE 12Z RAOBS. A NICE WARM CONVEYOR AND COLD                   
CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE CAN BE SEEN AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE             
COLD CONVEYOR BELT IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOME LIGHT                     
RAIN...WHICH IS NOW CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SOME OF THE BELT EVEN                
EXTENDS INTO THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE RADAR HERE               
SHOWS SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM MARQUETTE/GWINN EASTWARD TO              
GRAND MARAIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOW               
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IMPACTING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NW                      
WISCONSIN. CLEAR SKIES THEN EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA UNDER A              
1023MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS                     
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN NEAR -10F. 12Z INL SOUNDING                    
MODIFIED FOR THE AIR MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR STILL                  
YIELDS AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB BUT QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF DRY              
AIR BELOW IT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE EAST              
SIDE OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE COMING              
OFF THE PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING                   
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. FREQUENT                    
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND PLENTY OF WIND HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS TROUGH.            
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE                   
HEADING UP TO THE N AND THEN NW AS IT BUILDS MORE RIDGING OVER THE              
NORTHEAST U.S.. THE RESULT OF THIS SHRTWV MOVEMENT AND INCREASING               
BAROCLINICITY FROM THE EXTRA RIDGING WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE                  
SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z...THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW A 980MB LOW NEAR             
THE SE END OF GEORGIAN BAY. UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC              
FLOW AROUND THE LOW...HOWEVER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO                
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN MORE                         
NORTHEASTERLY...FAVORING HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBILITIES TO SHIFT INTO               
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES. HAVE                
MAINTAINED ADVISORIES FOR THESE COUNTIES AND FOLLOWED A 20 TO 1                 
RATIO WITH QPF SIMILAR TO THAT OF OUR LOCAL WRF RUN...WHICH HAS BEEN            
DOING WELL SO FAR TODAY WITH QPF. FOR THE WEST...ALTHOUGH THE LAKE              
EFFECT MAY SPARK UP SOME TONIGHT WITH THE DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER            
MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING...THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH              
THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH SNOW              
AMOUNTS SINCE 8 PM LAST NIGHT AT MOST OF 6 INCHES IN FAR WESTERN                
GOGEBIC COUNTY PER STATE POLICE...WHICH IS NEARLY TWICE BELOW WHAT              
IS NEEDED FOR A WARNING...HAVE DROPPED THAT WARNING ALONG WITH ALL              
THE OTHER ADVISORIES. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...SO             
EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN READINGS.                                                 
SUNDAY...SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW IN THE                
MORNING...THEN BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS SHIFT TO NEAR OTTAWA             
BY 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM HEADS OUT...MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL              
LEAVE WITH IT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF MOISTURE AND THE                  
DIURNAL CYCLE SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES.                
WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NW WILL FAVOR THIS MAX AREA TO BE EAST OF             
MARQUETTE WHERE THE LONGEST FETCH OF LAKE MOISTENING EXISTS.                    
INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW                  
FLURRIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. READINGS WILL BE                   
SIMILAR TO TODAY\S SINCE THERE IS LITTLE VERY IF ANY CHANGE IN THE              
PATTERN PROGGED. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR NEWBERRY SINCE THEY ARE                   
RELATIVELY WARM TODAY.                                                          
HAVE BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY             
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TOO FOR LAKE                
SUPERIOR AS 950MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING.               
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE                   
PATTERN IS PROGGED AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT.              
AS A RESULT...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH                 
FLURRIES OR NO PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN U.P.. THE LARGEST                  
ACCUMULATIONS...ALBEIT NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN EACH 12 HOUR                    
PERIOD...WILL REMAIN TO BE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE THEY               
ARE CLOSEST TO SHRTWV/S ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. INTERIOR                 
SECTIONS MAY IN FACT PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT TOO THROUGH THIS                       
PERIOD...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED FOR A FEW SITES TO GET AROUND ZERO FOR LOWS. 06Z MAV COOP             
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWED A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SITES DROPPING TO A              
FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE FOR TEMPS ON                 
MONDAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AS ON SUNDAY.                         
TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT THROUGH            
QUEBEC...WHICH ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.                      
HOWEVER...LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE AS 850MB TEMPS                   
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SO THE LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN ON THE LIGHT VARIETY WITH EVEN DRIER             
AIR GETTING ADVECTED INTO THE CWA. WITH THE SLIGHT WARMING AT                   
850MB...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES ADDED ONTO MONDAY\S HIGHS.                
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS A                 
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED...MEANING A CHANGE              
TOWARDS COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY. THE SYSTEM THAT IS THE MAIN CAUSE             
FOR THE CHANGE COMES OFF THE NE PACIFIC ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES INTO            
CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER MICHIGAN AT THIS POINT WILL STILL            
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO                           
VALLEY...KEEPING WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND ANY LES PUSHED               
INTO ONTARIO. ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION SNOW ALSO LOOKS                
LIKE IT WILL BE HELD OVER MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS PER 00Z              
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN. 00Z/06Z GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE                
SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INDICATE RIDGING BEING BUILT UP IN WESTERN CANADA            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CAUSING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO                 
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS ALLOWS FOR COLD AIR TO START                    
DROPPING SOUTH...INTENSIFYING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. 00Z                           
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW THE LOW CENTER DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL            
ONTARIO BY 00Z FRI WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 989MB. GIVEN THE                      
PRESSURE...WOULD EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE               
QUITE BREEZY...ALONG WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOWS MOVING ACROSS               
THE U.P.. ON FRIDAY...A REX BLOCK FORMS IN THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA            
WITH RIDGING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA AND             
AN UPPER LOW TRAPPED AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH A REX BLOCK IN THE            
WEST...THIS FAVORS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
AND THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS EXACTLY THE MODELS SHOW. AS A                    
RESULT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26C ACROSS                    
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z SAT WITH -20S C ENTERING WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. SO FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES            
IN THE GRIDS. A COUPLE OF BELOW ZERO NIGHTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY             
IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM WHERE THE LES OCCURS.                                 
DESPITE THE VERY COLD AIR...WHICH RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT OF                     
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THE AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRY.                    
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW IN THE HWO.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUN MIZ005-006.                        
GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
AJ (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
825 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.UPDATE..                                                                       
UPDATED TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING IN WASHTENAW...LENAWEE AND MONROE              
COUNTIES TO A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE                
FREEZING THIS EVENING...ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY. THE              
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOW BACKING INTO THE AREA...AND WITH WITH             
TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND 33 AND FALLING...EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO                 
COMMENCE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS ARE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE             
BEST MOISTURE...SO DOUBT THEY WILL DO ANY BETTER THAN 3-5 INCHES OF             
SNOW...AND LIKELY LESS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. LEFT WAYNE COUNTY IN             
THE WARNING...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE COUNTY WILL FALL SHORT OF 6                  
INCHES GIVEN THE SLOW TURN OVER/ACCUMULATION. EVEN SO...THEY ARE ON             
THE PIVOT POINT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF MOISTURE...SO EXPECT             
A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH              
THE NORTHERN BORDER PUSHING 5 OR 6 INCHES AND THE SOUTH CLOSER TO 3             
MAYBE 4 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.                                               
FURTHER NORTH...EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY (BAY...            
SAGINAW AND SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES). TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY DROP TO             
FREEZING AND CONTINUE TO FALL. THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE                 
SOUTHEAST IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THIS AREA. 18Z MODELS SUGGESTED 6-7             
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 00Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS            
NOW BARE THIS OUT. LEFT MIDLAND COUNTY AS AN ADVISORY BEING A BIT               
TOO FAR WEST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 600 PM                                                    
ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS BEEN COMING IN POCKETS SO FAR...WITH              
SOME OF THE LIGHTER PERIODS STILL MIXED WITH RAIN...CONDITIONS WILL             
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. 18Z MODELS ALL INSIST              
ON A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY               
01/02Z...CARRYING ON THROUGH ABOUT 06-07Z. THERE AREA FINALLY SOME              
SIGNS OF THIS ON SATELLITE AS A STEADY ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUD FEATURES            
HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST FEED OF MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE               
BACK TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR RETURNS HAVE RESPONDED IN             
THIS AREA. SO...STILL EXPECT A WINDOW OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW IN THE             
01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME DTW/DET TRENDING INTO MBS BY 03Z-07Z. WILL TAPER              
THE SNOW OFF A BIT LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE             
1-3SM MILE AREA WITH -SN/BLSN. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES             
ON SUNDAY MORNING...W/ JUST BLSN IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                             
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT                  
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO...WITH              
SECONDARY ENERGY OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR/HEIGHT                    
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP. 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS AROUND 30KFT SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF               
+150KTS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 175KTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW                 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...WITH AN INCREASING AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. METARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE                   
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH CHANGE OVER WORKING ITS WAY FROM                    
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FEW STATIONS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN                
CWA AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES STILL REPORTING RAIN.                    
UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE STRONG UPPER                      
JET/SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES              
TO TAKE A MORE LEFT/NORTHWARD TURN AS WELL...LEADING TO A                       
CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER WESTWARD TREND AND OVERALL IN LINE WITH             
THE GOING FORECAST. COMPARED TO 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS...12Z RUNS               
STILL UNDERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM JET...BY ABOUT 6 HOURS             
AND AT LEAST 10KTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF            
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A FASTER TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS                
COULD LEAD TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.             
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX AND FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM             
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MODEST SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY.                 
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM DTX/PTK SOUTHWARD INDICATE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO            
ACCUMULATE...WITH UP TO HALF INCH IN 45 MINUTES REPORTED. TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS INTO DTW SHOW THE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH                   
SOUNDINGS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST STILL SHOW FREEZING LEVELS >1.2KFT.            
ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECT MELTING AND                 
DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.             
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA. 18Z RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS WEAK TO NEUTRAL STATIC               
STABILITY...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH            
THETA-E FOLDED OVER. LDN ACTUALLY PICKED UP A COUPLE LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NEAR TOLEDO. AM TEMPTED TO HOLD              
OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AS THE NAM WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS PRETTY            
SHORT AND DIMINISHES AFTER 21Z. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY PRECIP RATES               
THOUGH...AS CAN BE INFERRED FROM SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ACCUMULATING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.                                                        
THE FASTER TREND MAY LIMIT THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT FASTER. HOWEVER EXPECT THE                  
SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING WITH WEAK STABILITY TO HELP US REALIZE              
THE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING             
GOING. THE WESTWARD TREND WOULD ALLOW THE TROWAL TO SETUP FARTHER               
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. WILL BUMP              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT OVER TOWARD BAY COUNTY. HOWEVER GIVEN               
THE SLOWER CHANGEOVER AND QUESTIONABLE ENHANCEMENT THAT FAR WEST                
WILL KEEP THEM IN AN ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE SNOW TOTAL STILL LOOK                  
GOOD...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT ACROSS THE THUMB WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT              
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF HURON. WILL MENTION DEFINITE BLOWING SNOW             
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE             
MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 40KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SWINGING                   
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH SOME            
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT COULD LEAD TO               
SOME ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS AT LEAST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING DESPITE A QUICKER DEPARTURE TO THE SYSTEM. ADDED            
AREA OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WITH A STRONG GRADIENT AND CONTINUED               
DEEP MIXED LAYER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                   
WEEKEND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC                  
THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK AS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY WANES. AT               
THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED STACKED LOW ALOFT VERY SLOWLY RETREATING             
NORTH/NORTHEAST.                                                                
AFTER MODEST DEEPER MOISTURE WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY                    
SOUTH...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF                
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ON THE OTHER HAND...REMAIN              
GENERALLY HIGH THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DYNAMICS SLIGHT AT BEST FROM                 
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY WEEK...INCLUDING LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR            
CONVERGENCE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA LIFT. QPF FIELDS ALSO               
VERY LIGHT...AND NAM ESSENTIALLY EVEN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.                      
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN NAM...                  
TAPPING COLDER THAN MINUS 10C TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEI...AND WITH            
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH                
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST FLURRY CHANCES                 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.                                                             
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND...                                  
MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS TOWARD SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD                      
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONSIDERABLE TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS            
AS TO BRINGING OF CLIPPER ON DOWN INTO LAKES REGION...WHICH WHEN                
THIS DOES HAPPEN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RESURGENCE OF COLD ARCTIC             
AIR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 500 MB...CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG           
MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES...BUT MAIN IDEA IS FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS               
LATTER PART OF WEEK...AND WITH AVAILABLE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED                
MOISTURE...AMIDST OVERALL WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SCENARIO                 
PERSISTING...AND WITH BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.                 
AFTER FLURRY CHANCES MENTIONED WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR            
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THEREAFTER IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                 
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ076...UNTIL            
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ075-MIZ082-MIZ083               
     UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                                         
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT                 
     AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.            
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                               
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......DG                                                                 
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
600 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS BEEN COMING IN POCKETS SO FAR...WITH              
SOME OF THE LIGHTER PERIODS STILL MIXED WITH RAIN...CONDITIONS WILL             
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. 18Z MODELS ALL INSIST              
ON A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY               
01/02Z...CARRYING ON THROUGH ABOUT 06-07Z. THERE AREA FINALLY SOME              
SIGNS OF THIS ON SATELLITE AS A STEADY ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUD FEATURES            
HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST FEED OF MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE               
BACK TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR RETURNS HAVE RESPONDED IN             
THIS AREA. SO...STILL EXPECT A WINDOW OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW IN THE             
01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME DTW/DET TRENDING INTO MBS BY 03Z-07Z. WILL TAPER              
THE SNOW OFF A BIT LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE             
1-3SM MILE AREA WITH -SN/BLSN. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES             
ON SUNDAY MORNING...W/ JUST BLSN IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                             
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT                  
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO...WITH              
SECONDARY ENERGY OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR/HEIGHT                    
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP. 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS AROUND 30KFT SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF               
+150KTS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 175KTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW                 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...WITH AN INCREASING AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. METARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE                   
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH CHANGE OVER WORKING ITS WAY FROM                    
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FEW STATIONS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN                
CWA AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES STILL REPORTING RAIN.                    
UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE STRONG UPPER                      
JET/SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES              
TO TAKE A MORE LEFT/NORTHWARD TURN AS WELL...LEADING TO A                       
CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER WESTWARD TREND AND OVERALL IN LINE WITH             
THE GOING FORECAST. COMPARED TO 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS...12Z RUNS               
STILL UNDERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM JET...BY ABOUT 6 HOURS             
AND AT LEAST 10KTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF            
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A FASTER TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS                
COULD LEAD TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.             
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX AND FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM             
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MODEST SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY.                 
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM DTX/PTK SOUTHWARD INDICATE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO            
ACCUMULATE...WITH UP TO HALF INCH IN 45 MINUTES REPORTED. TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS INTO DTW SHOW THE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH                   
SOUNDINGS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST STILL SHOW FREEZING LEVELS >1.2KFT.            
ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECT MELTING AND                 
DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.             
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA. 18Z RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS WEAK TO NEUTRAL STATIC               
STABILITY...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH            
THETA-E FOLDED OVER. LDN ACTUALLY PICKED UP A COUPLE LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NEAR TOLEDO. AM TEMPTED TO HOLD              
OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AS THE NAM WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS PRETTY            
SHORT AND DIMINISHES AFTER 21Z. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY PRECIP RATES               
THOUGH...AS CAN BE INFERRED FROM SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ACCUMULATING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.                                                        
THE FASTER TREND MAY LIMIT THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT FASTER. HOWEVER EXPECT THE                  
SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING WITH WEAK STABILITY TO HELP US REALIZE              
THE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING             
GOING. THE WESTWARD TREND WOULD ALLOW THE TROWAL TO SETUP FARTHER               
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. WILL BUMP              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT OVER TOWARD BAY COUNTY. HOWEVER GIVEN               
THE SLOWER CHANGEOVER AND QUESTIONABLE ENHANCEMENT THAT FAR WEST                
WILL KEEP THEM IN AN ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE SNOW TOTAL STILL LOOK                  
GOOD...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT ACROSS THE THUMB WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT              
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF HURON. WILL MENTION DEFINITE BLOWING SNOW             
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE             
MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 40KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SWINGING                   
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH SOME            
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT COULD LEAD TO               
SOME ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS AT LEAST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING DESPITE A QUICKER DEPARTURE TO THE SYSTEM. ADDED            
AREA OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WITH A STRONG GRADIENT AND CONTINUED               
DEEP MIXED LAYER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                   
WEEKEND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC                  
THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK AS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY WANES. AT               
THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED STACKED LOW ALOFT VERY SLOWLY RETREATING             
NORTH/NORTHEAST.                                                                
AFTER MODEST DEEPER MOISTURE WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY                    
SOUTH...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF                
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ON THE OTHER HAND...REMAIN              
GENERALLY HIGH THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DYNAMICS SLIGHT AT BEST FROM                 
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY WEEK...INCLUDING LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR            
CONVERGENCE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA LIFT. QPF FIELDS ALSO               
VERY LIGHT...AND NAM ESSENTIALLY EVEN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.                      
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN NAM...                  
TAPPING COLDER THAN MINUS 10C TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEI...AND WITH            
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH                
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST FLURRY CHANCES                 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.                                                             
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND...                                  
MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS TOWARD SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD                      
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONSIDERABLE TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS            
AS TO BRINGING OF CLIPPER ON DOWN INTO LAKES REGION...WHICH WHEN                
THIS DOES HAPPEN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RESURGENCE OF COLD ARCTIC             
AIR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 500 MB...CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG           
MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES...BUT MAIN IDEA IS FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS               
LATTER PART OF WEEK...AND WITH AVAILABLE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED                
MOISTURE...AMIDST OVERALL WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SCENARIO                 
PERSISTING...AND WITH BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.                 
AFTER FLURRY CHANCES MENTIONED WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR            
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THEREAFTER IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-          
     MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL NOON              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ060...            
     UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                                         
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN          
 TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                               
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
407 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT                  
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO...WITH              
SECONDARY ENERGY OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR/HEIGHT                    
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP. 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS AROUND 30KFT SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF               
+150KTS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 175KTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW                 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...WITH AN INCREASING AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. METARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE                   
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH CHANGE OVER WORKING ITS WAY FROM                    
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FEW STATIONS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN                
CWA AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES STILL REPORTING RAIN.                    
UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE STRONG UPPER                      
JET/SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES              
TO TAKE A MORE LEFT/NORTHWARD TURN AS WELL...LEADING TO A                       
CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER WESTWARD TREND AND OVERALL IN LINE WITH             
THE GOING FORECAST. COMPARED TO 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS...12Z RUNS               
STILL UNDERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM JET...BY ABOUT 6 HOURS             
AND AT LEAST 10KTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF            
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A FASTER TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS                
COULD LEAD TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.             
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX AND FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM             
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MODEST SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY.                 
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM DTX/PTK SOUTHWARD INDICATE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO            
ACCUMULATE...WITH UP TO HALF INCH IN 45 MINUTES REPORTED. TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS INTO DTW SHOW THE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH                   
SOUNDINGS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST STILL SHOW FREEZING LEVELS >1.2KFT.            
ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECT MELTING AND                 
DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.             
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA. 18Z RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS WEAK TO NEUTRAL STATIC               
STABILITY...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH            
THETA-E FOLDED OVER. LDN ACTUALLY PICKED UP A COUPLE LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NEAR TOLEDO. AM TEMPTED TO HOLD              
OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AS THE NAM WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS PRETTY            
SHORT AND DIMINISHES AFTER 21Z. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY PRECIP RATES               
THOUGH...AS CAN BE INFERRED FROM SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ACCUMULATING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.                                                        
THE FASTER TREND MAY LIMIT THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT FASTER. HOWEVER EXPECT THE                  
SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING WITH WEAK STABILITY TO HELP US REALIZE              
THE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING             
GOING. THE WESTWARD TREND WOULD ALLOW THE TROWAL TO SETUP FARTHER               
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. WILL BUMP              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT OVER TOWARD BAY COUNTY. HOWEVER GIVEN               
THE SLOWER CHANGEOVER AND QUESTIONABLE ENHANCEMENT THAT FAR WEST                
WILL KEEP THEM IN AN ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE SNOW TOTAL STILL LOOK                  
GOOD...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT ACROSS THE THUMB WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT              
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF HURON. WILL MENTION DEFINITE BLOWING SNOW             
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE             
MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 40KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SWINGING                   
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH SOME            
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT COULD LEAD TO               
SOME ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS AT LEAST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING DESPITE A QUICKER DEPARTURE TO THE SYSTEM. ADDED            
AREA OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WITH A STRONG GRADIENT AND CONTINUED               
DEEP MIXED LAYER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
WEEKEND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC                  
THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK AS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY WANES. AT               
THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED STACKED LOW ALOFT VERY SLOWLY RETREATING             
NORTH/NORTHEAST.                                                                
AFTER MODEST DEEPER MOISTURE WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY                    
SOUTH...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF                
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ON THE OTHER HAND...REMAIN              
GENERALLY HIGH THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DYNAMICS SLIGHT AT BEST FROM                 
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY WEEK...INCLUDING LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR            
CONVERGENCE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA LIFT. QPF FIELDS ALSO               
VERY LIGHT...AND NAM ESSENTIALLY EVEN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.                      
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN NAM...                  
TAPPING COLDER THAN MINUS 10C TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEI...AND WITH            
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH                
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST FLURRY CHANCES                 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.                                                             
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND...                                  
MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS TOWARD SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD                      
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONSIDERABLE TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS            
AS TO BRINGING OF CLIPPER ON DOWN INTO LAKES REGION...WHICH WHEN                
THIS DOES HAPPEN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RESURGENCE OF COLD ARCTIC             
AIR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 500 MB...CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG           
MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES...BUT MAIN IDEA IS FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS               
LATTER PART OF WEEK...AND WITH AVAILABLE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED                
MOISTURE...AMIDST OVERALL WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SCENARIO                 
PERSISTING...AND WITH BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.                 
AFTER FLURRY CHANCES MENTIONED WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR            
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THEREAFTER IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1236 PM EST SAT                                              
PRECIP RIGHT ON THE VERGE OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. WHILE SURFACE               
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 36-37F WITH DEWPOINTS 34-35F...15Z/16Z               
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW FREEZING LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW 1KFT AGL. DTW               
REPORTED A MIX RAIN/SNOW AT 17Z...WITH A SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED                 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINATE                     
INITIALLY...BUT WITH A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED FROM              
SOUTH TO NORTH GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL DEPICTION AND EXPECTED PRECIP               
INTENSITY. KEPT SIMILAR TIMING FOR MODERATE SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
AT FNT/DTW/DET...BUT DELAYED THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL LATER THIS                
EVENING. ALSO GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WESTWARD TRACK NOTED IN THE UPDATE             
SECTION...BROUGHT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES AT MBS AS WELL. PRETTY                  
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM WESTERN LOWER INTO THE THUMB...WHILE              
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MVFR REPORTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CWA INTO                  
ONTARIO/OHIO. IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...                    
IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. SLOWLY BROUGHT UP               
VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER HELD ONTO                
SOME RESTRICTIONS AND A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS STILL                
20G30KTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-          
     MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL NOON              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ060...            
     UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                                         
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN          
 TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                               
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION...BRAVENDER                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES FOR THE                 
SHORT-TERM.                                                                     
CURRENT WEATHER...20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
WITH RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND IN THE NORTHEAST. A                
SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN ROTATING NE THROUGH THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS                
AREA AND A 993MB LOW WAS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE IN FAR SE OHIO NEAR            
THE TIP OF THE SHRTWV. THIS LOW IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER A BROAD                   
120-140KT JET THAT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO MAINE              
THAT WAS SEEN ON THE 12Z RAOBS. A NICE WARM CONVEYOR AND COLD                   
CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE CAN BE SEEN AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE             
COLD CONVEYOR BELT IMPACTING LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOME LIGHT                     
RAIN...WHICH IS NOW CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SOME OF THE BELT EVEN                
EXTENDS INTO THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE RADAR HERE               
SHOWS SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM MARQUETTE/GWINN EASTWARD TO              
GRAND MARAIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOW               
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IMPACTING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NW                      
WISCONSIN. CLEAR SKIES THEN EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA UNDER A              
1023MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS                     
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN NEAR -10F. 12Z INL SOUNDING                    
MODIFIED FOR THE AIR MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR STILL                  
YIELDS AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB BUT QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF DRY              
AIR BELOW IT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE EAST              
SIDE OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE COMING              
OFF THE PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING                   
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. FREQUENT                    
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND PLENTY OF WIND HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS TROUGH.            
TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE                   
HEADING UP TO THE N AND THEN NW AS IT BUILDS MORE RIDGING OVER THE              
NORTHEAST U.S.. THE RESULT OF THIS SHRTWV MOVEMENT AND INCREASING               
BAROCLINICITY FROM THE EXTRA RIDGING WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE                  
SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z...THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW A 980MB LOW NEAR             
THE SE END OF GEORGIAN BAY. UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC              
FLOW AROUND THE LOW...HOWEVER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO                
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN MORE                         
NORTHEASTERLY...FAVORING HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBILITIES TO SHIFT INTO               
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES. HAVE                
MAINTAINED ADVISORIES FOR THESE COUNTIES AND FOLLOWED A 20 TO 1                 
RATIO WITH QPF SIMILAR TO THAT OF OUR LOCAL WRF RUN...WHICH HAS BEEN            
DOING WELL SO FAR TODAY WITH QPF. FOR THE WEST...ALTHOUGH THE LAKE              
EFFECT MAY SPARK UP SOME TONIGHT WITH THE DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER            
MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING...THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH              
THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH SNOW              
AMOUNTS SINCE 8 PM LAST NIGHT AT MOST OF 6 INCHES IN FAR WESTERN                
GOGEBIC COUNTY PER STATE POLICE...WHICH IS NEARLY TWICE BELOW WHAT              
IS NEEDED FOR A WARNING...HAVE DROPPED THAT WARNING ALONG WITH ALL              
THE OTHER ADVISORIES. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...SO             
EXPECT A SLOW FALL IN READINGS.                                                 
SUNDAY...SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW IN THE                
MORNING...THEN BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS SHIFT TO NEAR OTTAWA             
BY 00Z. AS THE SYSTEM HEADS OUT...MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL              
LEAVE WITH IT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF MOISTURE AND THE                  
DIURNAL CYCLE SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES.                
WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NW WILL FAVOR THIS MAX AREA TO BE EAST OF             
MARQUETTE WHERE THE LONGEST FETCH OF LAKE MOISTENING EXISTS.                    
INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW                  
FLURRIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. READINGS WILL BE                   
SIMILAR TO TODAY\S SINCE THERE IS LITTLE VERY IF ANY CHANGE IN THE              
PATTERN PROGGED. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR NEWBERRY SINCE THEY ARE                   
RELATIVELY WARM TODAY.                                                          
HAVE BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY             
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TOO FOR LAKE                
SUPERIOR AS 950MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING.               
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE                   
PATTERN IS PROGGED AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT.              
AS A RESULT...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH                 
FLURRIES OR NO PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN U.P.. THE LARGEST                  
ACCUMULATIONS...ALBEIT NO MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN EACH 12 HOUR                    
PERIOD...WILL REMAIN TO BE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE THEY               
ARE CLOSEST TO SHRTWV/S ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. INTERIOR                 
SECTIONS MAY IN FACT PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT TOO THROUGH THIS                       
PERIOD...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED FOR A FEW SITES TO GET AROUND ZERO FOR LOWS. 06Z MAV COOP             
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWED A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SITES DROPPING TO A              
FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE FOR TEMPS ON                 
MONDAY WITH THE SAME AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AS ON SUNDAY.                         
TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT THROUGH            
QUEBEC...WHICH ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.                      
HOWEVER...LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE AS 850MB TEMPS                   
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SO THE LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN ON THE LIGHT VARIETY WITH EVEN DRIER             
AIR GETTING ADVECTED INTO THE CWA. WITH THE SLIGHT WARMING AT                   
850MB...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES ADDED ONTO MONDAY\S HIGHS.                
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS A                 
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED...MEANING A CHANGE              
TOWARDS COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY. THE SYSTEM THAT IS THE MAIN CAUSE             
FOR THE CHANGE COMES OFF THE NE PACIFIC ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES INTO            
CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER MICHIGAN AT THIS POINT WILL STILL            
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO                           
VALLEY...KEEPING WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND ANY LES PUSHED               
INTO ONTARIO. ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION SNOW ALSO LOOKS                
LIKE IT WILL BE HELD OVER MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS PER 00Z              
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN. 00Z/06Z GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE                
SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INDICATE RIDGING BEING BUILT UP IN WESTERN CANADA            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CAUSING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO                 
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS ALLOWS FOR COLD AIR TO START                    
DROPPING SOUTH...INTENSIFYING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. 00Z                           
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW THE LOW CENTER DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL            
ONTARIO BY 00Z FRI WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 989MB. GIVEN THE                      
PRESSURE...WOULD EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE               
QUITE BREEZY...ALONG WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOWS MOVING ACROSS               
THE U.P.. ON FRIDAY...A REX BLOCK FORMS IN THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA            
WITH RIDGING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA AND             
AN UPPER LOW TRAPPED AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH A REX BLOCK IN THE            
WEST...THIS FAVORS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
AND THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS EXACTLY THE MODELS SHOW. AS A                    
RESULT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26C ACROSS                    
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z SAT WITH -20S C ENTERING WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. SO FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES            
IN THE GRIDS. A COUPLE OF BELOW ZERO NIGHTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY             
IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM WHERE THE LES OCCURS.                                 
DESPITE THE VERY COLD AIR...WHICH RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT OF                     
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THE AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRY.                    
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW IN THE HWO.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUN MIZ005-006.                        
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT EASTERN 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                            
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1236 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRECIP RIGHT ON THE VERGE OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. WHILE SURFACE               
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 36-37F WITH DEWPOINTS 34-35F...15Z/16Z               
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW FREEZING LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW 1KFT AGL. DTW               
REPORTED A MIX RAIN/SNOW AT 17Z...WITH A SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED                 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINATE                     
INITIALLY...BUT WITH A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED FROM              
SOUTH TO NORTH GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL DEPICTION AND EXPECTED PRECIP               
INTENSITY. KEPT SIMILAR TIMING FOR MODERATE SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
AT FNT/DTW/DET...BUT DELAYED THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL LATER THIS                
EVENING. ALSO GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WESTWARD TRACK NOTED IN THE UPDATE             
SECTION...BROUGHT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES AT MBS AS WELL. PRETTY                  
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM WESTERN LOWER INTO THE THUMB...WHILE              
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MVFR REPORTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CWA INTO                  
ONTARIO/OHIO. IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...                    
IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. SLOWLY BROUGHT UP               
VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER HELD ONTO                
SOME RESTRICTIONS AND A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS STILL                
20G30KTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...1111 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                            
REGIONAL RADAR SHOW PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER...RAIN              
AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE CWA. HEAVIER BAND OF REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS             
THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM PHN-DUH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC                    
COOLING...WITH SPOTTER REPORT OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR SOUTHEAST                 
OAKLAND COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN                
WEST VIRGINIA...WITH 3HR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASING ACROSS OHIO TO               
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTS A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH...              
WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TAKES ON MORE OF A                  
NEGATIVE TILT. 12Z RUC INITIALIZED THE SURFACE POSITION BETTER...               
WITH THE NAM/WRF-XX A BIT FAR WEST. WHILE INITIALLY EAST...THE                  
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DO SUPPORT THE RUC FORECAST WHICH            
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...OR FARTHER WEST THAN THE              
12Z NAM/WRF-XX. GOOD +130KT 300MB JETLET EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OHIO            
APPARENT IN 12Z RAOBS/ACARS DATA. STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE/PRESSURE            
FALLS WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY TURN BY THE SURFACE LOW                  
INDICATED BY THE RUC...ADDING SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE              
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS TO AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST INTO THE CWA              
BY LATE AFTERNOON.                                                              
14Z TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDINGS INTO DTW FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOW                   
FREEZING LEVELS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS COLD                    
ADVECTION PICKS UP. 12Z RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR TO               
EARLIER RUNS...DROPPING THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW ZERO BY THIS                    
EVENING. RUC FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST LOOKS TO LINE UP PRETTY WELL               
WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS INDIANA INTO                    
SOUTHWEST LOWER. TIMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS A MIX BY 18Z             
WITH ALL SNOW BY 21Z. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL                 
UPDATE TO FRESHEN THE WORDING AND TWEAK PRECIP TYPE TIMING...MAINLY             
TO ADD A LONGER PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CURRENT WATCH AREA AND            
A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE TRI CITIES, BOTH HEADLINES             
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.                                                            
A FEW THINGS TO NOTE IN THE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE                
FIRST IS THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AS FAR NORTH AS FORT WAYNE AND              
DEFIANCE. THE SECOND IS THAT LOW PRESSURE IS FILLING PRETTY QUICKLY             
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIRD, IT JUST STARTED                
SNOWING IN EVANSVILLE AND INDY. THESE THINGS SUPPORT LEANING THE                
FORECAST TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. A                 
LONGER DURATION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO               
GREATER WET BULB COOLING. THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN             
LOWER IS HOLDING BACK COLD SURFACE AIR AND ONCE THAT IS GONE THE                
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE LOW LEVELS OVER SE                    
MICHIGAN AS EVIDENCED BY OBS OF SNOW OVER INDIANA. PRECIPITATION                
WILL START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARNING AREA AND A MIX OF RAIN AND              
SNOW OVER THE ADVISORY AREA BUT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON             
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.                                              
THE GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT IS THE ONLY ONE HANDLING              
THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER INDIANA. THIS FACT GIVES IT             
THE BEST CHANCE OF CORRECTLY SIMULATING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS            
SO IMPORTANT TO TIMING THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. IT KEEPS 850 MB WET             
BULB TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH TODAY AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS                   
INDICATES A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 3 PM AS VALUES FALL TO AROUND                
1295 METERS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET               
ACCUMULATION BY 7 PM AND THEN THINGS GO DOWN HILL FROM THERE.                   
FOR TONIGHT, MODES OF FORCING RUN THE SPECTRUM WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC              
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION DURING TODAY WILL                      
TRANSITION TO STRONG LIFT IN THE OCCLUSION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH             
WILL SET UP OVER SE MICHIGAN. 700 MB WINDS IN THE TROWAL WILL BE IN             
THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASINGLY LOW               
STABILITY. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE FOR 12 TO 15              
HOURS SHOULD BRING ACCUMULATION OVER 6 INCHES IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF            
THE WARNING AREA AND CLOSE TO A FOOT IN THE THUMB WHERE LAKE                    
ENHANCEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH -10C OVERNIGHT.            
COUPLE THE HEAVY SNOW WITH 30 MPH WINDS FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND             
DRIFTING OVER ALL OF SE MICHIGAN AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE            
THUMB, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE WITH 40 MPH WIND GUSTS                     
POSSIBLE. EXPECT SHORELINE AREAS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD                
WARNING WITH LATER FORECASTS FOR HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IN THE SHORT              
TERM.                                                                           
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                               
A RETURN TO WINTER INDEED WITH A POTENTIAL SHOT OF A STRONG CLIPPER             
SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.                                                            
VIGOROUS AND DEEP CYCLONE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON SUNDAY MORNING                
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE DEFORMATION AND POTENTIAL TROWAL               
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  SNOW                    
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH              
THE EXCEPTION OF THE THUMB REGION AS COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS STORM.  HERE WE WILL ADD ON ANOTHER                
1-2" WITH AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.  NEEDLESS TO            
SAY...WINDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE STATE WITH NEAR BLIZZARD                  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO AS MIXING              
MOMENTUM POINTS TOWARD MID 30KT GUSTS.                                          
AS SYSTEM FILLS AND BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE STATE SUNDAY               
NIGHT...WE WILL SLOWLY SEE IMPROVEMENTS...BUT THE KEY WORD HERE IS              
SLOWLY.  WITH COLD AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WE                
WILL HOLD ONTO THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE                    
REGION.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS HURON COUNTY              
AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND THIS WOULD ADD ONTO THE               
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL SHORT WAVE PULSES               
ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AS WELL. 850MB                 
TEMPS DROP BACK WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND SURFACE REFLECTION             
WILL BE LOWS FALLING BACK TO AROUND 20F WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE               
SINGLE DIGITS.                                                                  
THE REAL NEXT SHOT FOR SNOW AND ARCTIC AIR ARE STILL SCHEDULED FOR              
MID-LATE WEEK.  THIS COULD BE QUITE A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM AS THE              
WATER VAPOR LOOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS QUITE                  
POTENT AND TRENDS IN THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF SUGGEST A ROBUST CLIPPER                
WITH 850MB TEMPS TAPPING INTO SUB -20C AIRMASS THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEEKS END.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT                
THIS WITHIN THE HWO THIS MORNING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-          
     MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...1 PM                    
     SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.                                                   
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ060...            
     1 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.                                              
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN          
     TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.        
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.                    
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SN/LES TRENDS.                            
WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATED A MID/UPR LVL TROF            
FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH WI TO THE LWR MS VALLEY. WHILE VERY POTENT              
SHRTWV REMAINS WELL TO THE S INTO ERN KY/TN A WEAKER SHRWV INTO ERN             
UPR MI AND ASSOCIATED MODEST 700-500 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION SUPPORTED A            
BAND OF SNOW ACRS MUCH OF CENTRL AND E UPR MI. WV/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED            
BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM N CNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO CMX-LNL.               
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR WAS AVBL UPSTREAM FROM LK                           
SUPERIOR...AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SFC                 
DEWPOINTS AOB 0F. 12Z CYQT TAMDAR SNDG SHOWED -17C TEMP AT TOP OF               
STRONG INVERSION AT 925 MB(2.5K FT). OBS OVER THE WEST INDICATED                
VSBYS GENERALLY AROUND 2SM.                                                     
RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z RUC/NAM SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV AND FORCING                
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AREA OF DEEPER                    
MOISTURE MAKING LITTLE/NO FURTHER PROGRESS TO THE WEST. WHILE                   
ADDITIONAL 950-850 MB SHOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST HLF             
THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL TRENDS AND BNDRY LYR DRYING UPSTREAM WILL              
BE LESS FAVORABLE. SO...EXPECT ONLY SLOW INCREASE IN LES RATES                  
OVER THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH IT MAY BE A STRETCH TO REACH ADVY OR                 
WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WILL LEAVE HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AS             
AT LEAST LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE LES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.            
OVER THE E HLF...SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT MAY            
PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH BY THIS EVENING. SINCE RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS            
INDICATE BAND OF MORE SIGNFICANT SNOW HAS LIFTED N OF DELTA                     
COUNTY...ADVY WILL BE DROPPED. COMBINATION OF BEST UPWARD MOTION AND            
ONSHORE NRLY WINDS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (KSAW TAMDAR SNDGS -11C AT              
890 MB) SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY ALGER AND FAR E MARQUETTE COUNTY.                  
THERE...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 521 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                             
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OFF THE            
PACIFIC NW COAST...RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES AND TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE ARE SHORTWAVES                  
EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WITH ONE OVER CENTRAL WI WHICH IS PUTTING               
OUT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING.             
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVING DOWN SOUTH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. BOTH             
SHORTWAVES SHOW UP AS DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND SOME CYCLONIC                
SPIN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THOSE AREAS. 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS                 
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST                 
TODAY.                                                                          
NAM FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT OVER SW OHIO AND TAKES             
THIS LOW NE TONIGHT TO NEAR NIAGARA FALLS BY 12Z SUN AND THEN INTO              
QUEBEC WHERE IT SITS AND SPINS THROUGH 12Z TUE AND KEEPS THE CWA IN             
THE 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WESTERN SIDE.                                          
NAM SHOWS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH               
1000-500 MB RH REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN WI.               
BEST DYNAMICS PULL OFF TO THE EAST HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND               
THEN PULL OUT OF CWA TONIGHT. NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC               
LIFT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY PM I280-I285K SURFACES WITH             
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. THIS LIFT PULLS OUT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. GFS IS            
SIMILAR WITH ITS SOLUTION TO THE NAM AND ALSO SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT             
ON THE I280K-I290K SURFACE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA...BUT SEEMS               
STRONGER ON ITS LIFT AND ALSO HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE             
EAST THAN THE NAM DOES. LOOKED AT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND THEY ARE            
STEEP. THE NAM PUTS THE AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE CENTRAL              
CWA TODAY WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH STEEP LAPSE               
RATES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAPSE RATES ARE FROM                    
6-7C/KM. GFS ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER AT 850 MB                  
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING THAN THE NAM ACROSS CANADA AND WILL GO                
WITH THE COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF THE GFS. GFS KEEPS THE                   
COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WRN CWA WHICH HAS BEEN                   
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. QUICK LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWS DRY              
AIR ACROSS ONTARIO WITH DEW POINTS BELOW ZERO AND THIS IS HEADED                
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. PROBLEM IS                
THAT THIS DRY AIR IS COMING IN...BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL OFF               
DURING THE DAY AND THE GFS SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA IN             
THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION IS IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP ENHANCE               
THE SNOWFALL...BUT THINK THE DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS            
FORECAST AND THIS WILL EAT INTO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WILL FORECAST              
THE LOW END OF A WARNING CRITERIA OF 10 INCHES ACROSS GOGEBIC COUNTY            
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DRIER AIR. GFS AND             
NAM BOTH HAVE INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3000 FEET OR SO WITH THE GFS                 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IF THE DRY AIR GETS DISPLACED FURTHER WEST...THE 10            
INCHES FOR THE WEST MIGHT BE THEN UNDERDONE...BUT DO NOT THINK THIS             
WILL HAPPEN. OTHER PROBLEM IS THE WI SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED THE TIMING            
OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING FURTHER BACK AND THAT IS WHY THE LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW IN THE WEST HAD NOT STARTED UNTIL AROUND 4 AM THIS                  
MORNING AS LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T TEMPERATURES WERE MARGINAL AROUND 13C            
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE. A QUICK LOOK AT KMQT RADAR SHOWS THE COLD              
AIR FINALLY STARTING TO ARRIVE AS KIWD...KCMX AND KASX FINALLY                  
STARTED TO SNOW OR HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES THAN BEFORE. AS THIS                 
SHORTWAVE PULLS NORTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO KEEP                
COMING SOUTH.                                                                   
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR DELTA COUNTY BASED ON DYNAMICS AND                    
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH TODAY AND THINK 2-3 INCHES IS              
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THEM. FURTHER EAST FOR SCHOOLCRAFT                  
COUNTY...THEY APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF SNOW AND THINK THEY WILL              
STAY UNDERNEATH CRITERIA AND WILL GO 1-2 INCHES THERE. FOR MENOMINEE            
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES...THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS              
THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS DEPARTING.                                          
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT            
TO CUT SNOWFALL TOTALS A BIT WITH THE DRIER AIR AND MARGINAL                    
LAKE-850 DELTA-T TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST. TEMPERATURES LOOKED                
PRETTY GOOD AND MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THE LAKE                
EFFECT EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LONG LIVED EVENT. WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE HEADLINES EXTENDED FURTHER ON IN TIME AND CHANGES              
IN HEADLINES IN LATER FORECAST SHIFTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUN MIZ005-006. LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUN MIZ001-003-004-084. LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ SUN MIZ002-009. GALE WARNING             
IN EFFECT EASTERN 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                         
$$                                                                              
JLB(UPDATE)                                                                     
MICHELS(PREV DISC)                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1111 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
REGIONAL RADAR SHOW PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER...RAIN              
AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE CWA. HEAVIER BAND OF REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS             
THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM PHN-DUH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC                    
COOLING...WITH SPOTTER REPORT OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR SOUTHEAST                 
OAKLAND COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN                
WEST VIRGINIA...WITH 3HR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASING ACROSS OHIO TO               
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTS A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH...              
WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TAKES ON MORE OF A                  
NEGATIVE TILT. 12Z RUC INITIALIZED THE SURFACE POSITION BETTER...               
WITH THE NAM/WRF-XX A BIT FAR WEST. WHILE INITIALLY EAST...THE                  
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DO SUPPORT THE RUC FORECAST WHICH            
TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...OR FARTHER WEST THAN THE              
12Z NAM/WRF-XX. GOOD +130KT 300MB JETLET EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OHIO            
APPARENT IN 12Z RAOBS/ACARS DATA. STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE/PRESSURE            
FALLS WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERLY TURN BY THE SURFACE LOW                  
INDICATED BY THE RUC...ADDING SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE              
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS TO AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST INTO THE CWA              
BY LATE AFTERNOON.                                                              
14Z TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDINGS INTO DTW FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOW                   
FREEZING LEVELS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS COLD                    
ADVECTION PICKS UP. 12Z RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR TO               
EARLIER RUNS...DROPPING THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW ZERO BY THIS                    
EVENING. RUC FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST LOOKS TO LINE UP PRETTY WELL               
WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS INDIANA INTO                    
SOUTHWEST LOWER. TIMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS A MIX BY 18Z             
WITH ALL SNOW BY 21Z. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL                 
UPDATE TO FRESHEN THE WORDING AND TWEAK PRECIP TYPE TIMING...MAINLY             
TO ADD A LONGER PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...651 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                           
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE PLAGUED BY THE SNOW STORM EXPECTED TO               
IMPACT SE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONGOING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL GIVE            
WAY TO RAIN THIS MORNING AT DETROIT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT               
FLINT AND SAGINAW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY LONG                   
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON                  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE                       
WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS TO MAKE BLOWING AND              
DRIFTING SNOW A BIG PROBLEM. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO               
MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.                               
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW                     
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO REACH CENTRAL LAKE ERIE BY 00Z THIS              
EVENING. PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY INTO                
THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. AT THE SAME TIME,                 
RAIN IS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER INDIANA, WITH REPORTS OF SNOW NEARLY              
UP TO FORT WAYNE AT PRESS TIME.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CURRENT WATCH AREA AND            
A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE TRI CITIES, BOTH HEADLINES             
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.                                                            
A FEW THINGS TO NOTE IN THE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE                
FIRST IS THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AS FAR NORTH AS FORT WAYNE AND              
DEFIANCE. THE SECOND IS THAT LOW PRESSURE IS FILLING PRETTY QUICKLY             
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIRD, IT JUST STARTED                
SNOWING IN EVANSVILLE AND INDY. THESE THINGS SUPPORT LEANING THE                
FORECAST TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. A                 
LONGER DURATION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO               
GREATER WET BULB COOLING. THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN             
LOWER IS HOLDING BACK COLD SURFACE AIR AND ONCE THAT IS GONE THE                
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE LOW LEVELS OVER SE                    
MICHIGAN AS EVIDENCED BY OBS OF SNOW OVER INDIANA. PRECIPITATION                
WILL START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARNING AREA AND A MIX OF RAIN AND              
SNOW OVER THE ADVISORY AREA BUT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON             
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.                                              
THE GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT IS THE ONLY ONE HANDLING              
THE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER INDIANA. THIS FACT GIVES IT             
THE BEST CHANCE OF CORRECTLY SIMULATING THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS            
SO IMPORTANT TO TIMING THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. IT KEEPS 850 MB WET             
BULB TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH TODAY AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS                   
INDICATES A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 3 PM AS VALUES FALL TO AROUND                
1295 METERS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET               
ACCUMULATION BY 7 PM AND THEN THINGS GO DOWN HILL FROM THERE.                   
FOR TONIGHT, MODES OF FORCING RUN THE SPECTRUM WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC              
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION DURING TODAY WILL                      
TRANSITION TO STRONG LIFT IN THE OCCLUSION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH             
WILL SET UP OVER SE MICHIGAN. 700 MB WINDS IN THE TROWAL WILL BE IN             
THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASINGLY LOW               
STABILITY. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE FOR 12 TO 15              
HOURS SHOULD BRING ACCUMULATION OVER 6 INCHES IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF            
THE WARNING AREA AND CLOSE TO A FOOT IN THE THUMB WHERE LAKE                    
ENHANCEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH -10C OVERNIGHT.            
COUPLE THE HEAVY SNOW WITH 30 MPH WINDS FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND             
DRIFTING OVER ALL OF SE MICHIGAN AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE            
THUMB, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE WITH 40 MPH WIND GUSTS                     
POSSIBLE. EXPECT SHORELINE AREAS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD                
WARNING WITH LATER FORECASTS FOR HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IN THE SHORT              
TERM.                                                                           
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                               
A RETURN TO WINTER INDEED WITH A POTENTIAL SHOT OF A STRONG CLIPPER             
SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.                                                            
VIGOROUS AND DEEP CYCLONE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON SUNDAY MORNING                
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE DEFORMATION AND POTENTIAL TROWAL               
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  SNOW                    
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH              
THE EXCEPTION OF THE THUMB REGION AS COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT            
AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS STORM.  HERE WE WILL ADD ON ANOTHER                
1-2" WITH AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.  NEEDLESS TO            
SAY...WINDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE STATE WITH NEAR BLIZZARD                  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO AS MIXING              
MOMENTUM POINTS TOWARD MID 30KT GUSTS.                                          
AS SYSTEM FILLS AND BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE STATE SUNDAY               
NIGHT...WE WILL SLOWLY SEE IMPROVEMENTS...BUT THE KEY WORD HERE IS              
SLOWLY.  WITH COLD AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WE                
WILL HOLD ONTO THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE                    
REGION.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS HURON COUNTY              
AS GFS/NAM SUGGEST IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND THIS WOULD ADD ONTO THE               
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL SHORT WAVE PULSES               
ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AS WELL. 850MB                 
TEMPS DROP BACK WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND SURFACE REFLECTION             
WILL BE LOWS FALLING BACK TO AROUND 20F WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE               
SINGLE DIGITS.                                                                  
THE REAL NEXT SHOT FOR SNOW AND ARCTIC AIR ARE STILL SCHEDULED FOR              
MID-LATE WEEK.  THIS COULD BE QUITE A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM AS THE              
WATER VAPOR LOOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS QUITE                  
POTENT AND TRENDS IN THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF SUGGEST A ROBUST CLIPPER                
WITH 850MB TEMPS TAPPING INTO SUB -20C AIRMASS THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEEKS END.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT                
THIS WITHIN THE HWO THIS MORNING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-          
     MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...1 PM                    
     SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.                                                   
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ060...            
     1 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.                                              
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN          
     TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.        
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.                    
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...                                               
SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH SFC OCCLUSION                     
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.                  
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME                       
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN            
FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES BASED ON FROPA AND LATEST RUC AND INCLUDED            
CHC OF TSRA FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES. RRM                    
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL               
TRACK NORTH TO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT               
WITH A SSE LOW-LVL JET INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 50 KTS WILL BRING             
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG                
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC... HOWEVER THERE             
IS SOME CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING            
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRACKS OVER THE AREA. BUFKIT ETA FORECAST AT               
AVP SHOWS SI INDICES REACHING +1 THIS EVENING... SO AN ELEVATED                 
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NORTHEAST                 
PA... BUT FEEL THAT CHC'S ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE                    
FORECAST. RADAR MOSAICS ARE SHOWING SOME MODERATE RAINS OVER SE PA              
MOVING NORTH. HOURLY RAINFALL WITH THAT AREA IN THE DC/BWI AREA THIS            
AFTERNOON WAS MOSTLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR. FFG GUIDANCE IN OUR            
AREA IS WELL OVER AN INCH IN 3 HOURS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO                 
CONCERNS WHEN THIS BATCH OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF'S REMAIN              
CONSISTENT IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...               
AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK                
SHOT OF RAIN... WITH THE DRY SLOT SWEEPING IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH               
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                               
RAIN DIMINISHES TO SCT SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS             
IN FROM THE SOUTH. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD GET INTO THE SW TO ALLOW               
FOR SCT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT... BUT SIGNIFICANT                  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY THEN. ATM CONTINUES TO COOL ON SUNDAY             
AS SOME LOW-LVL SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA IN               
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING                  
ACROSS UPSTATE NY... BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN                 
INCH.                                                                           
EXPECT SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY AS THE DEEP                 
SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  MODEL WIND               
PROFILES BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE             
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... MAINLY IN THE 30              
TO 35 MPH RANGE.                                                                
ATM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM               
BUFKIT PROFILES PLUS SUNY BROCKPORT MM5 FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE             
SNOW BAND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL INITIALLY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA               
SUNDAY EVENING... BUT MAY DROP SOUTH TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS COULD BE A MAJOR EVENT WITH                       
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR... PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 200 MB OF             
THE ATM... AND A DEEP CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA. MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA            
WILL BE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND... WITH SOME CONCERN THAT THE                
MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LAKE TROUGHING... WHICH WOULD            
ALLOW FOR MORE SW FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES AND COULD RESULT IN THE                
BAND BEING JUST NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY. KEEPING IN MIND THIS                    
UNCERTAINTY... BUT GIVEN THAT THIS COULD BE A MAJOR EVENT... WE HAVE            
GONE WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH                
MONDAY. - MSE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (05/00Z - 06/00Z)...                                                  
ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...AS SHRA CONTINUE TO             
DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM BOMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  CIGS            
WILL OCCNL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES...WITH VIS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR.             
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-SE THIS EVENING GUSTING TO 25KT AT               
TIMES.  ONCE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...SHRA WILL WIND            
DOWN...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR...AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO             
SOUTH...AND MIGHT WEAKEN A BIT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND SHIFT              
TO SW SUN MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE                     
DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR.  ALSO DURING SUNDAY                                   
MORNING...KSYR/KELM/KAVP CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MVFR                 
ELSEWHERE.  SCT SHSN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  -CEMPA                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                         
THE PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEKEND TO ESTABLISH AN EASTERN TROF. NW                
FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT LOOKS CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO AT              
LEAST TUESDAY. WITH THE MODEL TREND TO SLOW DOWN THE SFC RIDGE FROM             
THE WEST...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE INTO WEDNESDAY NOW. FOLLOWED             
HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR LONG RANGE DAYS 4 TO 8. NEXT LOW DIVES DOWN            
BACKSIDE OF TROF FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BE HERE FRIDAY. THIS              
WAS SLOWED DOWN ON MODELS ALSO. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE AS SOME              
MODELS POINT TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT FOR SATURDAY.                   
WEATHER GRIDS MOSTLY SW- WITH A BREAK THU BETWEEN THE LES AND                   
SYNOPTIC STORM. TEMPERATURES FALL TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR TIME OF YEAR              
FOR DAYS 3 TO 8.   -TAC                                                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
TODAYS RUN OF THE RIVER MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH THREAT OF                    
SIGNIFICANT RISES AS YESTERDAY. FRIDAYS RAIN CAUSED RIVERS TO RISE A            
FEW FEET IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE HEADWATERS HAVE CRESTED. TODAY               
AND TONIGHTS RAIN WILL BRING ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH AVERAGE.              
RENEWED RISES BUT WITHIN BANKFULL. EVEN DOUBLING THE RAINFALL WOULD             
ONLY CAUSE MINOR ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. WINDS AND DROPPING                 
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THE RUNOFF. -TAC                      
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE SUNDAY             
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                                           
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MSE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1029 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR HTS WITH WARM FRONT NEAR THE               
NC/VA BORDER. DEW POINTS AROUND 60 WERE MOVING INTO THE SANDHILLS               
WITH DEW POINTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. 850MB ANALYSIS              
OF 12Z DATA SHOWED 45KT WINDS AT CHS MOVING NORTH TOWARD NC WITH                
GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT. INCREASING DIVERGENCE WAS               
EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER GEORGIA AND SC JUST EAST OF THE                   
STRONGEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS.                                                   
RUC FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT                          
OBSERVATIONS IN THE SENSE THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE AROUND              
60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE EASTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUD                  
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE MOVING PAST THE MID 60S TOWARD THE                    
COAST. SOME OF THIS WARMTH SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND                 
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING FOR               
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS JUST ABOVE 60 YIELDS CAPE OF              
AROUND 1600J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -5C...GIVEN RUC                      
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT BY 21Z OVER CENTRAL NC AND NOT USING                
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO FAR                    
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF DRIER AIR. MSAS              
ALREADY SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 IN THE SANDHILLS.  WITH                  
NOSE OF MID AND UPPER- LEVEL JET OVERHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...                
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WILL BE PRESENT...AND GIVEN ENOUGH                          
INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY EASTERN                  
ZONES WHERE CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS NOT TO BE QUITE              
AS THICK AND WHERE RICHEST THETA-E LIES ON MSAS AND AS FORECAST BY              
THE RUC.  WILL ISSUE SPS TO MENTION THIS BY NOON.                               
GUSTY WINDS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL                  
PLAINS AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH INCREASING 850MB WINDS MOVING INTO              
THE AREA WITH EVEN WEAK MIXING. ADDED BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A FEW               
GUSTS TO FORECAST AS A RESULT.  DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-                
TO- EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST K INDICES DROP                 
QUICKLY TO NEAR NEGATIVE VALUES LATE IN THE DAY. GRIDDED AND                    
WORDED FORECASTS SHOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ENDING QUICKLY LATE IN THE               
DAY ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND VUJ. THANKS TO ADJACENT                     
OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING. UPDATED GRIDDED AND WORDED              
FORECASTS ALREADY ISSUED.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 200 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
ONCE AGAIN IT APPEARS THAT THE INFAMOUS "CAROLINA SPLIT" WILL                   
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF AND ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC THAN            
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN                         
SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP DRY AIRMASS                 
(PER 00Z GSO RAOB)IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO               
LOWER 50S. THROUGH 12Z... THE BULK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED                
WITH 850 AND SFC WARM FRONT WILL GO TO MOISTEN...BEFORE ANY QPF                 
REACHES THE GROUND.                                                             
DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND                     
SOUTHEAST COAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE                  
AND STRONG KINEMATICS FROM 140 KT JET OVER THE EASTERN GULF.                    
HOWEVER...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE             
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE                
REMAINING OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS            
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TN AND UPSTATE GEORGIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM DEEPENING SFC AND 850 LOW. THE LOW            
WILL TRACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON              
THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...QPF WILL DECREASE                      
EXPONENTIALLY FROM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS APPARENT                         
DISCONNECTION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ALSO REDUCE THE THREAT OF               
THUNDER AS WELL. 40KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR                  
(40KTS) AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS FROM APPROACHING VORT. MAX WILL                 
STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POPS REMAINING IN LIKELY                  
CATEGORY. DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST             
TO NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z WITH CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF               
THE CWA. COOL DOWN BEHIND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER CAA SEEMS                 
RATHER MODEST WITH FLOW PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY. AS A                            
RESULT...ADJUSTED TONIGHT'S LOW AND HIGHS SUNDAY UP A FEW DEGREES.              
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN               
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH FORECAST TIED TO THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE             
TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH.                  
LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND              
FARTHER SOUTH WITH MOISTURE/PRECIP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.                  
SHOULD SEE BETTER RUN-TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ONCE S/W ENERGY MOVES            
ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE WITH WARM FRONT              
EAST THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY                    
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. HOWEVER DURING             
THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE MOVEMENT            
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.                                               
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 11Z...EXCEPT IFR VSBYS RWI IN FOG.              
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TAF AREA. 11Z-20Z IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS               
AND MVFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. AFTER 20Z VFR                   
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH                
18Z...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH               
00Z/05.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1255 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN WINTER STORM...TAF SITES WILL HAVE             
IFR TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH SNOW                  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST...EXPECT                  
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE             
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAN UP WORDING. FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH               
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT.            
SNOW HAS BEGUN TO ACCUMULATE WITH UP TO AN 2 INCHES REPORTED NEAR               
CINCINNATI. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS ENTIRE ILN CWA BY LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 445 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.                
KILN RADAR SHOWS RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST                        
AREA...WITH CENTRAL OHIO STILL REMAINING DRY AT THEM MOMENT.                    
NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING SURFACE LOW                
INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. AS IT CONTINUES TO                   
DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH...THEN COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED EASTWARD                 
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. 03Z AND 06Z RUC ARE BOTH A GOOD BIT COOLER                
WITH THEIR LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES THAN NAM AND GFS. IN FACT RUC                
SUGGESTS MUCH OF WESTERN FA SHOULD TURN TO SNOW AROUND 09Z. WILL                
GO WITH THE GFS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AS IT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN                  
NAM. THIS BRINGS SWITCHOVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN                 
HALF AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.                                    
STRATIFORM SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A SHOWERY NATURE OVERNIGHT.                
TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CREATE LAKE ENHANCED                  
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL START OUT AFFECTING WHOLE CWA BUT BY                
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SLACKENING OFF ACROSS                    
THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS.                                                                        
STORM TOTAL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 ACROSS               
THE NORTH TO 1 TO 2 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                           
WEATHER PATTERN THEN TRANSITION FROM UPPER TROF INTO A MORE                     
WESTERLY PATTERN...WHICH RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.             
MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED...FOR THOUGHTS OF PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST SEE BELOW.                                                             
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
(ISSUED 353 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006)                                              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
MAIN SYSTEM PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY BUT CYCLONIC LOW             
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH             
CONTINUED CAA. BETWEEN THIS AND POSSIBLE FETCH OFF OF LAKE                      
MICHIGAN...THINK CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS REASONABLE ACROSS                 
ENTIRE AREA. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF              
WAA DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY             
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END.                                         
NEXT CONCERN IS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH             
THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH               
THAN THE 00Z RUNS. GIVEN TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE                 
SYSTEM ENDS UP MISSING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL HANG ON TO A              
TOKEN 20 POP FOR THE FAR SOUTH ON MONDAY JUST IN CASE.                          
UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING AT               
THE SURFACE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE STRONGER             
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS DOWN INTO THE TROUGH LATER IN THE                      
WEEK....BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                  
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE                 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND HAVE MAINLY GONE BELOW              
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-061-               
     062 FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                    
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ045-046-054-055 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY             
     TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                            
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ060-070>072-077-078 FROM 10 AM              
     SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ063-064-073-079>082-088 FROM 1              
     PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ056-065-074 FROM 4 PM SATURDAY              
     TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                            
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ089>096 FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO              
     7 AM SUNDAY.                                                               
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ097>100 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7             
     AM SUNDAY.                                                                 
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080                 
     FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
638 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
STRONG MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEFORMATION HAVE                     
CONTRIBUTED TO DVLPMNT OF WIDESPREAD AREA OF -RA ACRS TAFS THIS                 
MRNG. SFC LO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO SE KENTUCKY.                  
TROF EXTNDG NORTH FROM SFC LO ACRS FCST AREA AND INTO SRN LWR                   
MICHIGAN. PROXIMITY OF TROF HAS INCREASED SFC/BNDRY LYR CONV ACRS               
FCST AREA FURTHER ENHANCING PCPN. WEST OF TROF COLDER AIR HAS                   
BEGUN TO FILTER IN...WITH PCPN HAVING NOW CHANGED TO ALL -SN ACRS               
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN INDIANA. 06Z RUC AND GFS SOLNS SEEM TO HAVE               
BEST HANDLE ON BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES. BOTH INDCG LWR LVLS SHOULD                
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT -SN AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY BTWN 14-16Z...AND AT                   
KILN/KCMH/KLCK BTWN 17-20Z. THE SWITCH TO -SN WILL RUN IN TANDEM                
WITH MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS...WHICH WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST              
ACRS FCST AREA THRU ERLY EVNG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THERE WILL                    
LIKELY BE A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE               
CHANGE OVER. HAVE HIT CIGS/VSBYS HARDEST DURING MID/LATE AFTN                   
DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR.                                                           
SFC LO WILL TRACK THRU UPR OH RIVER VLY AND BE LOCATED OVER NE                  
OHIO BY THIS EVNG. THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT                
THE DAY...WITH W/NW WINDS INCREASING ABV 15KTS THIS AFTN AND BECMG              
GUSTY. EXPECTING WET HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY...BUT AS TEMPS CONTINUE               
TO DROP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE BLOWN                
AROUND BY THE WINDS. AS SFC LO TRACKS NORTH INTO ONTARIO                        
OVERNIGHT...BEST LIFT AND MID LVL DEFORMATION WILL MOVE OUT OF                  
FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS                  
LATE TONIGHT AS -SN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY.                          
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 445 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.                
KILN RADAR SHOWS RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST                        
AREA...WITH CENTRAL OHIO STILL REMAINING DRY AT THEM MOMENT.                    
NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING SURFACE LOW                
INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. AS IT CONTINUES TO                   
DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH...THEN COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED EASTWARD                 
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. 03Z AND 06Z RUC ARE BOTH A GOOD BIT COOLER                
WITH THEIR LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES THAN NAM AND GFS. IN FACT RUC                
SUGGESTS MUCH OF WESTERN FA SHOULD TURN TO SNOW AROUND 09Z. WILL                
GO WITH THE GFS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AS IT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN                  
NAM. THIS BRINGS SWITCHOVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN                 
HALF AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.                                    
STRATAFORM SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A SHOWERY NATURE OVERNIGHT.                
TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CREATE LAKE ENHANCED                  
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL START OUT AFFECTING WHOLE CWA BUT BY                
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SLACKENING OFF ACROSS                    
THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS.                                                                        
STORM TOTAL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 ACROSS               
THE NORTH TO 1 TO 2 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                           
WEATHER PATTERN THEN TRANSITION FROM UPPER TROF INTO A MORE                     
WESTERLY PATTERN...WHICH RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.             
MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS.                        
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED...FOR THOUGHTS OF PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST SEE BELOW.                                                             
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
(ISSUED 353 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006)                                              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
MAIN SYSTEM PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY BUT CYCLONIC LOW             
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH             
CONTINUED CAA. BETWEEN THIS AND POSSIBLE FETCH OFF OF LAKE                      
MICHIGAN...THINK CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS REASONABLE ACROSS                 
ENTIRE AREA. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF              
WAA DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY             
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END.                                         
NEXT CONCERN IS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE            
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH             
THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH               
THAN THE 00Z RUNS. GIVEN TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE                 
SYSTEM ENDS UP MISSING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL HANG ON TO A              
TOKEN 20 POP FOR THE FAR SOUTH ON MONDAY JUST IN CASE.                          
UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING AT               
THE SURFACE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE STRONGER             
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS DOWN INTO THE TROUGH LATER IN THE                      
WEEK....BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                  
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE                 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND HAVE MAINLY GONE BELOW              
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-061-               
     062 FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                    
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OHZ045-046-054-055 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY             
     TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                            
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ060-070>072-077-078 FROM 10 AM              
     SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ063-064-073-079>082-088 FROM 1              
     PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OHZ056-065-074 FROM 4 PM SATURDAY              
     TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                                            
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ089>096 FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO              
     7 AM SUNDAY.                                                               
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KYZ097>100 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7             
     AM SUNDAY.                                                                 
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080                 
     FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1031 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
THE MORNING UPDATE REMOVED FOG WORDING AS ALL LOCATIONS HAVE                    
INCREASED TO 6SM OR BETTER. RAIN IS MOVING NORTH TO THE PA-MD                   
BORDER AND WILL MOVE OVER ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT              
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN WV WHICH IS                      
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL                 
NOT AFFECT THE CWA AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A RAIN                 
EVENT FOR TODAY. LIFTED INDICES...CAPE AND CURRENT LIGHTNING                    
STRIKES WOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES              
LATER TODAY. WILL LEAVE THE WATCH ALONE FOR NOW AWAITING NEWER                  
MODEL RUNS. OUR CONCERNS ARE THAT THE FLOW MAY BE TOO WESTERLY TO               
TAP INTO GOOD LAKE MOISTURE BUT NOT CONVINCED AS OF YET.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 309 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
SFC LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AT 0730Z. LARGE RAIN                   
SHIELD EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE SFC LOW...WITH A NARROWER              
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.           
BASED ON RADAR...ETA12 AND RUC TRENDS...PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT                   
STEADY RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 15Z MOST SECTIONS.                      
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STORM TRACK...WITH               
HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS COMMON FROM THE LAURELS NNEWD                
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.                               
NEXT CONCERN IS TIMING OF CHANGEOVER. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL               
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA                   
BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND                
STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING...A SHARP CHANGEOVER APPEARS LIKELY AND                  
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER (SIMILAR TO AN EVENT FROM ONLY TWO              
WEEKS AGO). AFTER FROPA...IT APPEARS THAT CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW              
INTO THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT              
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH                   
REMAINS IN EFFECT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP                      
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO SCENARIO IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY              
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.                              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONTS OVER CAMBRIA/SOMERSET COUNTIES AFT 00 UTC               
MON. AT THE SAME TIME...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR             
WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MON. HOWEVER...SETUP              
MAY FAVOR W-E ORIENTED BANDS THAT PARALLEL THE NY/PA BORDER. SO IN              
COLLABORATION WITH CLE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD BACK ON LAKE EFFECT                 
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.                                                         
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST FEATURES A RETURN TO WINTER...WITH               
PERSISTENT COLD FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH                   
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS DROPPING THROUGH THE STRONG NW UPPER               
FLOW AS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTH AMERICA. SECOND                
WEEK OF FEBRUARY (FROM THE 10TH AND BEYOND) MAY VERY WELL FEATURE               
AN ARCTIC INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE                        
NORTHEAST...SOMETHING NOT SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS ROUND THESE PARTS.             
IT'S ONLY FEBRUARY...SO WE'VE GOT A LOT OF WINTER LEFT TO GO. NO                
CHANGES MADE TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THERE'S                 
PLENTY TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN THE SHORTER TERM.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR              
VIS AND A FEW CIGS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION FROM                 
SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD IFR AND AREAS             
OF LIFR VIS AND CIGS IN RAIN AND FOG. FLYING CONDS WILL SLOWLY                  
IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE            
REGION. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN               
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR VIS AND               
CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDS                  
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN MTNS OF WRN AND NRN CENTRAL PA.                           
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PAZ024-033 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM                    
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
1030 AM MST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO UTAH             
LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW           
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN              
FOR NEXT WEEK.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS                
DEPICT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH              
130KT JET STREAK LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF THIS TROUGH. TIGHT 700MB                
BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN ID/WESTERN NV WITH                     
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOCATED NEAR OR/ID BORDER STRETCHING BACK              
INTO FAR NORTHWEST NV TO THE NW OF KWMC...BASED ON SURFACE OBS AND              
3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MUCH OF OR/NORTHERN CA. THIS TROUGH AND            
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
UTAH THIS EVENING.                                                              
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO REACH THE WASATCH FRONT AROUND THE 01Z                     
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER NAM/RUC BOTH SUGGEST 700/500 COLD ADVECTION TO               
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW SNOW                  
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH BY                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION                      
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND             
GUSTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.                     
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN OVER TO SNOW WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF                 
FROPA AS STRONG 700MB COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.                   
MOUNTAIN ZONES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WITH FROPA.               
ADDITIONALLY MAY SEE A WEAK LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS               
SOUTHERN SALT LAKE/EASTERN DAVIS COUNTIES. PROGGED 700MB TEMPS                  
AROUND -14C LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 1-2C ARE               
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BANDS. INSTABILITY                
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN UT THROUGH MORNING HOURS SUNDAY BEFORE                  
WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS REGION              
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL                 
WASATCH FRONT AND WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH             
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1-3               
INCH RANGE WITH 2-5 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BENCHES. ADDITIONALLY             
HAVE ISSUED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR WASATCH AND WESTERN            
UINTA MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS             
WITH FROPA.                                                                     
LASTLY...MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
SOUTHWEST UT...AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA LATE TONIGHT...ALONG              
WITH 700MB COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT                   
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WILL SUPPORT GUSTY GAP WINDS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH SLC ABOUT 6PM               
GIVE OR TAKE 1/2 HR. THERE IS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT                    
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 35-40 MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAIN               
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW                  
BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM. SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH GENERAL IFR                     
CONDITIONS BUT TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9PM               
AND 12AM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY             
     ZONES UTZ007>009.                                                          
     SNOW ADVISORY 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY UTZ006.                      
     SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM TODAY THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY UTZ002>003.                  
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SEAMAN                                                                 
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1250 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (SVR POTENTIAL)...                                                  
THE LATEST FROM SPC...                                                          
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING               
NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A             
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.           
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING             
-- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC                   
THETAE.  AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING            
AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES              
AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH            
TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.                                  
ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN             
BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W            
NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT.  VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD               
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT             
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT                
LLJ.  EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO                  
TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD FROM LLJ AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING             
GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER REGION.  WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF             
VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY                 
LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG SFC FRONT              
THAT IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  AREAS OF IFR WILL                   
CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA...MTN RIDGES OBSCD.  AFTER FROPA...ANTICIPATE              
MUCH IMPROVED FLIGHT CONDTIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO                 
AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS.  PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO                   
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH WINDWARD RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO              
SNOW SHOWERS.  STRONG SFC WINDS AND TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED TO                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1101 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. 996 MB SFC LOW ALONG OH RIVER              
VCNTY HTS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST THIS               
AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND IS               
INTO WRN VA/NC. AT 15 UTC FRONT WAS FROM CRW-TNB LN. TRIPLE POINT               
INFLECTION (SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER) WAS OVER NW NC WITH                  
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE ACROSS EXTREME NRN NC INTO SOUTHEAST                   
VA...ALONG A UKF-DAN-RIC LINE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT IS              
SOUPY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH                
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS                
AFTN...POTENTIALLY SVR PER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP MID                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                              
THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN A COUPLE SPOTTER REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL               
VCNTY OF TNB ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA IN ADDITION TO A SUDDEN STRONG                
WIND GUST WITH FROPA. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS                 
AFTN...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO                  
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF TRIPLE POINT LOW. NORTH OF                             
BOUNDARY...AIMASS MAY BE TOO STABLE TO MIX DOWN THE WIND.                       
ATTM WILL LEAVE GRID TEMPS ALONE. WE ARE FCSTNG TEMPS TO RECOVER                
INTO THE 50S AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. BIG QUESTION IS                    
WHETHER WARM FRONT CAN MOVE NORTH FAST ENOUGH B4 THE COLD FRONT                 
GETS HERE...THUS SENDING THE TEMPS IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.                      
ASIDE FROM THE SVR POTENTIAL...SECOND DELIMA IS SNOW FCST AND NEED              
FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR WINTRY PRECIP. WRN AREAS WILL              
LIKLEY SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNSET WITH AN ACCUMULATING                 
SNOW FOR OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES...FIRST FROM THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND               
MOISTURE FROM THE OH VALLEY LOW...THEN MORE TO A PURE UPSLOPE SNOW              
EVENT FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE FAR WRN CWA LATER TONIGHT                  
AND SUNDAY...THE MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING SHALLOWER WITH TIME.                
BASED ON THE QPF...A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FROM GREENBRIER                      
NORTHWARD...UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS NW OF                      
LEWISBURG. FARTHER SOUTH...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...AN                 
INCH IN THE MTN VALLEYS...BUT UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS                 
ABOVE ABOVE 3000 FEET...COULD SQUEEK OUT 4 INCHES AT FLAT TOP                   
WV...MT ROGERS VA...BEECH MTN NC. SINCE THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE                
SO ELEVATION DEPENDENT...SEE NO NEED FOR A WARNING...ALTHOUGH MAY               
ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE AFTN FCST                        
PACKAGE. INSTEAD OF A SNOW ADVISORY HEADLINE MAY CONSIDER A                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WIND.                
AS FOR THE WIND...THERE WILL BE A BURST OF WIND WITH FROPA...25-35              
MPH...THEN SECONDARY INCREASE IN THE WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE                      
SUBSIDENCE AND GRADIENT WIND INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE                       
DEEPENING LOW. FCST CROSS BARRIER FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY                  
SUNDAY IS ABOUT 45 KTS. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HEADLINE FOR ADVISORY                
CRITERIA WIND IN THE MTNS...BUT AGAIN...MAY CHOOSE TO COMBINE IT                
WITH THE WSW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WVZ045 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
930 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN             
ARIZONA TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT                
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT               
WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NORTH TO                    
NORTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.               
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THIS EVENINGS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER               
THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING IN ON WESTERLY FLOW AT THE H4                  
LEVEL. THERE IS A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH            
TO DEATH VALLEY. RH PROGS AT H4 AND ABOVE INDICATE THE CLOUD FIELD              
TO STICK AROUND UNTIL EARLY MORNING AND THEN BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS            
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. USING THE              
RUC LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA PROGS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS            
THE NORTHERN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                             
ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE                  
FEATURES. BOTH MODELS HAVE A RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER CENTRAL                      
CALIFORNIA. THIS PUTS NORTHERN ARIZONA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND              
RH PROGS INDICATE THE CLOUD FIELD CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL BE SHUNTED            
SOUTHWARD. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED HERE AS SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH.                                           
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PROGS BRING A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE             
OVER ARIZONA. BY TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING ACROSS             
SRN CAL AND IS SHOWN TO BRING IN SOME MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL                   
CLOUDS.                                                                         
DL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG             
AND SOUTH OF A KLAS TO KFMN LINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH                    
CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTH. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN               
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. AVIATION                  
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
231 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE WINDS AS WELL              
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN CONCERNS BECOME TEMPERATURES                     
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.                                              
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                      
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES              
AND MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC SPIN OF ENERGY IN TROUGH MOVING                
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WYOMING WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SEEN                
EARLIER IN NORTHERN UTAH. GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH IN GOOD                       
AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TODAY.               
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                     
FOR TODAY FIRST CONCERN BECOMES THE WIND AS WELL AS SMALL CHANCES               
FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM              
AROUND 850 MB AND UP WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE BELOW. GOOD DOWNWARD                 
MOMENTUM SHOWN BY MODELS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z TODAY                   
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ZONES. IN                    
ADDITION LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND WITH                
ETA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS. APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR                    
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES SO HAVE INCREASED              
AFTERNOON CHANCES TO 30 POPS THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS                   
ELSEWHERE. ALSO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD MIX DOWN                    
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                  
THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COLORADO              
AND WESTERN MOST ROWS OF KANSAS ZONES. HAVE LOWERED HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES A BIT ALL ZONES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL AS EFFECTS              
FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY. MAY SEE LITTLE MORE SUN              
WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES. THUS                     
TRENDED TEMPERATURES FROM LOW 40S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 30S EAST.                
FOR TONIGHT TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL STILL                 
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN ZONES               
FOR THE EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM               
THE TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT                
WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS WELL.                                 
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF                      
CHANGES. RIDGING MOVES OVER AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE                 
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT ON               
MONDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS HAS                
HAPPEN SO MUCH RECENTLY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES               
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.                            
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MADE                
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR                  
SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR APPEARS BY BOTH GFSLR AND ECMWF MODELS TO                
RESIDE OVER OUR REGION AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO                
REGION FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES               
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST            
     /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-KSZ013-KSZ027-KSZ041.                 
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON            
     FOR NEZ079.                                                                
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON            
     FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMMERS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
318 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SNOW              
TODAY AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.                                    
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS              
THE ROCKIES. THE VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO              
BE NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR                
LIKE THIS FEATURE IS DIGGING THAT MUCH...BUT THERE IS A HINT OF DRY             
SLOT TRYING TO REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE RUC APPEARS TO              
HAVE THE SURFACE LOW PLACED TO FAR EAST...SO THIS WAVE MAY END UP               
COMING THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE ARE CONTINUING TO               
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE             
NAM DOES SHOW THE THETA SURFACES REALLY RISING BETWEEN 280-290K                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP SATURATE THINGS UP FAIRLY                  
QUICKLY. THERE IS EVEN A HINT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WHEN THIS MID            
LEVEL COLD POCKET MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                
COBB OUTPUT FROM THE ETA IS NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ALL            
THIS EVENING, BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH AROUND              
CHANUTE. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...SINCE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE               
STARVED FOR MOISTURE...EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD. WE ARE               
NOT GOING TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BUT WE MAY ADD THE                
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/135                 
CORRIDOR TONIGHT DUE TO A LOW LEVEL COLD POCKET AROUND 280K MOVING              
THROUGH THE REGION. WE ARE NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY HEADLINE SINCE              
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS DRIZZLE WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE WHICH SHOULD                
KEEP MOST OF THE ROADWAYS IN GOOD SHAPE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALSO BE                 
TAKING OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM              
ACROSS THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WE               
DID RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST              
KANSAS TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THEM DOWN. FORECAST                   
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END OF HIGH.                                           
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
NO REAL BIG CHANGES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALSO DOES NOT               
SHOW MUCH OF A CHANGE EITHER WITH THE POSITION OF THE TROF IN THE               
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CANADIAN CLIPPER TO PASS THROUGH REGION             
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WE              
WILL NOT BE ADDING POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE              
IS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.                                                         
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:                                                             
WE ARE NOT MAKING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE                 
FORECAST PACKAGE EITHER. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT            
WITH THE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE               
POLAR AIR TO ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO             
AGREE MORE WITH THE UKMET AND IS TENDING TO FLIP FLOP A LITTLE ON               
THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALL SHOWING A COLD POLAR HIGH                  
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP                  
BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. WE DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR              
TWO ON FRIDAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS DRY DUE TO LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE             
FETCH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    47  23  47  23 /  10  20   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      46  23  47  23 /  20  20   0   0                                
NEWTON          45  23  46  23 /  20  20   0   0                                
ELDORADO        45  23  47  23 /  10  30   5   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  24  48  23 /  10  20   0   0                                
RUSSELL         42  22  46  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      45  22  46  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
SALINA          42  22  45  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       45  22  46  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     45  24  47  24 /  10  30  10   0                                
CHANUTE         42  24  46  23 /  10  30  10   0                                
IOLA            42  24  45  23 /  10  30   5   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
345 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ENDING THE VERY LIGHT SNOW              
OR FLURRIES AND THEN DEALING WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS.                             
NO MORE EVIDENCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF FA....AND              
MOST OF THE FLURRIES ON OUR LOCAL RADAR ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF SDF               
AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.                                              
HOW TO HANDLE THE DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS A            
MORE IMPOSING PROBLEM. REALLY PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER RUC VERSUS             
THE NAM AND GFS TRENDS. WI DAYTIME HEATING...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL                 
FLOW...SOME BACKBUILDING CLOUD TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD                 
DELAY THE CLEARING. THEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN             
MID OR HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SE              
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY TONIGHT.                                      
HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOWER 30S NE TO MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST PORTION             
OF FA...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. --21                        
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU SUNDAY)                                                 
(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...                                                         
DECENT AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONG H500 LOW ACROSS QB...AND             
+PNA PATTERN(W CONUS RIDGE/E CONUS TROUGH) REMAINING IN PLACE. WNW              
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES                 
MONDAY...A FEW CLOUDS MAY EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE              
TN BORDER...WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REST OF THE              
AREA MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY                  
TUE...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH MODELS SHOWING               
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY.            
WILL GO SLIGHTLY UNDER THE MOS BLEND FOR EACH DAY...WITH READING                
EACH DAY ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.--SCHOTT                                  
IN THE EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS                
JUMPING FROM SOLUTION TO SOLUTION...TONIGHT IS WAS THE 00Z ECMWF                
TURN TO DO SO. MODELS NOT DOING A DECENT JOB AT ALL IN PICKING OUT              
THE SHRTWV ENERGY...USING ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM GFS AND CAN...WITH                
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE                      
MEANS...SLIGHTLY COLDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES TEND TO FAIR             
BETTER WITH SUCH WIDE VARIANCE IN THE OPER MODELING.                            
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT                       
SNOW/FLURRIES WITH A WEAK SHRTWV DROPPING ACROSS THE OH VLY                     
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE. THE FIRST CHANGE IN THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT             
WAS CREATING SOME WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BOTH             
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING WITH GO ALONG HERE AND DIFFER FROM THE                    
ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY ONLY. DRY THURSDAY WITH SOME WAA ACROSS THE              
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER              
MS VALLEY. THE WAA MAY CAUSE THE PRECIP FRIDAY TO START AS RAIN/SNOW            
MIX BEFORE TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY LATE                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                              
DIFFERENCES REALLY START TO EXPAND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT                 
SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS TURNED UP A WARMER SOLUTION THAN LAST FEW                  
RUNS...KEEPING THE REALLY COLD AIR IN SOUTHERN CANADA...MAINLY DUE              
THE RELAXING OF THE NORTH ATLC BLOCKING. THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE               
REALLY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SATURDAY INTO                
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS UNTIL MORE                    
CONSISTENCY SHOWS. SO THAT LEADS TO THIS SOLUTION...SATURDAY THE                
MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW...HAVE KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST WITH                
SOME MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. YSTDY'S RUNS SHOWED             
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW ON SATURDAY...LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY NOW              
WITH NEITHER THE OPER OR ENSEMBLES SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY. SUNDAY             
AN ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...HAVE PLACED            
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST. --SCHOTT                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1225 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NAM IS DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT BOTTOMS               
OUT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF LAKE HURON. FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING             
CONTINUES TO WRAP SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA...AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS                
WILL NOT ABATE TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. SO...EXPECT FNT/MBS TO BE IN AND             
OUT OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT...WITH DTW/DET SHARING IN               
JUST A BIT OF THIS. DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE IRISH HILLS              
IS KEEPING CONDITIONS BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR IN/AROUND DETROIT. WILL               
TAPER THE SNOW OFF SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE NORTHWEST WIND                 
BLOWING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIMINISHING SOME WITH THE DECOUPLING               
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY TOMORROW EVENING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE #2...ISSUED AT 1210 AM                                                  
UPDATED TO DOWNGRADE WAYNE COUNTY FROM A WARNING TO SNOW/BLOWING                
SNOW ADVISORY. FROTOGENETIC BANDING CONTINUES TO ROTATE BACK INTO               
THE CWA...WITH A NUMBER OF THE BANDS JUST MAKING IT INTO PARTS OF               
WAYNE COUNTY...BUT NO FURTHER. HEAVIEST SNOW...BY AND LARGE...WILL              
CONTINUE FROM M 59 NORTH INTO THE THUMB AND PARTS OF THE SAGINAW                
VALLEY...WHERE WARNING APPEARS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH PLENTY OF                
REPORTS IN THE 5 TO 6 INCH RANGE ALREADY THIS EVENING. EDGED DOWN               
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF DETROIT...WITH NO MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES IN                 
LENAWEE/MONROE (SOME WILL BE LUCKY TO GET THAT MUCH).                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 825 PM                                                      
UPDATED TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING IN WASHTENAW...LENAWEE AND MONROE              
COUNTIES TO A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE                
FREEZING THIS EVENING...ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY. THE              
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOW BACKING INTO THE AREA...AND WITH WITH             
TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND 33 AND FALLING...EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO                 
COMMENCE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS ARE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE             
BEST MOISTURE...SO DOUBT THEY WILL DO ANY BETTER THAN 3-5 INCHES OF             
SNOW...AND LIKELY LESS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. LEFT WAYNE COUNTY IN             
THE WARNING...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE COUNTY WILL FALL SHORT OF 6                  
INCHES GIVEN THE SLOW TURN OVER/ACCUMULATION. EVEN SO...THEY ARE ON             
THE PIVOT POINT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF MOISTURE...SO EXPECT             
A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH              
THE NORTHERN BORDER PUSHING 5 OR 6 INCHES AND THE SOUTH CLOSER TO 3             
MAYBE 4 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.                                               
FURTHER NORTH...EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY (BAY...            
SAGINAW AND SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES). TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY DROP TO             
FREEZING AND CONTINUE TO FALL. THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE                 
SOUTHEAST IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THIS AREA. 18Z MODELS SUGGESTED 6-7             
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 00Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS            
NOW BARE THIS OUT. LEFT MIDLAND COUNTY AS AN ADVISORY BEING A BIT               
TOO FAR WEST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 600 PM                                                    
ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS BEEN COMING IN POCKETS SO FAR...WITH              
SOME OF THE LIGHTER PERIODS STILL MIXED WITH RAIN...CONDITIONS WILL             
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. 18Z MODELS ALL INSIST              
ON A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY               
01/02Z...CARRYING ON THROUGH ABOUT 06-07Z. THERE AREA FINALLY SOME              
SIGNS OF THIS ON SATELLITE AS A STEADY ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUD FEATURES            
HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST FEED OF MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE               
BACK TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR RETURNS HAVE RESPONDED IN             
THIS AREA. SO...STILL EXPECT A WINDOW OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW IN THE             
01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME DTW/DET TRENDING INTO MBS BY 03Z-07Z. WILL TAPER              
THE SNOW OFF A BIT LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE             
1-3SM MILE AREA WITH -SN/BLSN. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES             
ON SUNDAY MORNING...W/ JUST BLSN IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                             
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT                  
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO...WITH              
SECONDARY ENERGY OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR/HEIGHT                    
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP. 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS AROUND 30KFT SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF               
+150KTS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 175KTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW                 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...WITH AN INCREASING AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. METARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE                   
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH CHANGE OVER WORKING ITS WAY FROM                    
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FEW STATIONS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN                
CWA AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES STILL REPORTING RAIN.                    
UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE STRONG UPPER                      
JET/SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES              
TO TAKE A MORE LEFT/NORTHWARD TURN AS WELL...LEADING TO A                       
CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER WESTWARD TREND AND OVERALL IN LINE WITH             
THE GOING FORECAST. COMPARED TO 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS...12Z RUNS               
STILL UNDERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM JET...BY ABOUT 6 HOURS             
AND AT LEAST 10KTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF            
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A FASTER TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS                
COULD LEAD TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.             
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX AND FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM             
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MODEST SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY.                 
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM DTX/PTK SOUTHWARD INDICATE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO            
ACCUMULATE...WITH UP TO HALF INCH IN 45 MINUTES REPORTED. TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS INTO DTW SHOW THE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH                   
SOUNDINGS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST STILL SHOW FREEZING LEVELS >1.2KFT.            
ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECT MELTING AND                 
DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.             
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA. 18Z RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS WEAK TO NEUTRAL STATIC               
STABILITY...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH            
THETA-E FOLDED OVER. LDN ACTUALLY PICKED UP A COUPLE LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NEAR TOLEDO. AM TEMPTED TO HOLD              
OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AS THE NAM WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS PRETTY            
SHORT AND DIMINISHES AFTER 21Z. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY PRECIP RATES               
THOUGH...AS CAN BE INFERRED FROM SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ACCUMULATING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.                                                        
THE FASTER TREND MAY LIMIT THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT FASTER. HOWEVER EXPECT THE                  
SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING WITH WEAK STABILITY TO HELP US REALIZE              
THE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING             
GOING. THE WESTWARD TREND WOULD ALLOW THE TROWAL TO SETUP FARTHER               
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. WILL BUMP              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT OVER TOWARD BAY COUNTY. HOWEVER GIVEN               
THE SLOWER CHANGEOVER AND QUESTIONABLE ENHANCEMENT THAT FAR WEST                
WILL KEEP THEM IN AN ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE SNOW TOTAL STILL LOOK                  
GOOD...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT ACROSS THE THUMB WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT              
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF HURON. WILL MENTION DEFINITE BLOWING SNOW             
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE             
MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 40KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SWINGING                   
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH SOME            
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT COULD LEAD TO               
SOME ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS AT LEAST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING DESPITE A QUICKER DEPARTURE TO THE SYSTEM. ADDED            
AREA OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WITH A STRONG GRADIENT AND CONTINUED               
DEEP MIXED LAYER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                   
WEEKEND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC                  
THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK AS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY WANES. AT               
THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED STACKED LOW ALOFT VERY SLOWLY RETREATING             
NORTH/NORTHEAST.                                                                
AFTER MODEST DEEPER MOISTURE WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY                    
SOUTH...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF                
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ON THE OTHER HAND...REMAIN              
GENERALLY HIGH THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DYNAMICS SLIGHT AT BEST FROM                 
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY WEEK...INCLUDING LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR            
CONVERGENCE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA LIFT. QPF FIELDS ALSO               
VERY LIGHT...AND NAM ESSENTIALLY EVEN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.                      
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN NAM...                  
TAPPING COLDER THAN MINUS 10C TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEI...AND WITH            
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH                
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST FLURRY CHANCES                 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.                                                             
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND...                                  
MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS TOWARD SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD                      
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONSIDERABLE TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS            
AS TO BRINGING OF CLIPPER ON DOWN INTO LAKES REGION...WHICH WHEN                
THIS DOES HAPPEN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RESURGENCE OF COLD ARCTIC             
AIR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 500 MB...CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG           
MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES...BUT MAIN IDEA IS FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS               
LATTER PART OF WEEK...AND WITH AVAILABLE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED                
MOISTURE...AMIDST OVERALL WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SCENARIO                 
PERSISTING...AND WITH BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.                 
AFTER FLURRY CHANCES MENTIONED WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR            
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THEREAFTER IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                 
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070...UNTIL                   
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ075-MIZ076-                     
     MIZ082-MIZ083 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                           
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT                 
     AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.            
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                               
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......DG                                                                 
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1210 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.UPDATE #2...                                                                   
UPDATED TO DOWNGRADE WAYNE COUNTY FROM A WARNING TO SNOW/BLOWING                
SNOW ADVISORY. FROTOGENETIC BANDING CONTINUES TO ROTATE BACK INTO               
THE CWA...WITH A NUMBER OF THE BANDS JUST MAKING IT INTO PARTS OF               
WAYNE COUNTY...BUT NO FURTHER. HEAVIEST SNOW...BY AND LARGE...WILL              
CONTINUE FROM M 59 NORTH INTO THE THUMB AND PARTS OF THE SAGINAW                
VALLEY...WHERE WARNING APPEARS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH PLENTY OF                
REPORTS IN THE 5 TO 6 INCH RANGE ALREADY THIS EVENING. EDGED DOWN               
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF DETROIT...WITH NO MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES IN                 
LENAWEE/MONROE (SOME WILL BE LUCKY TO GET THAT MUCH).                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 825 PM                                                      
UPDATED TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING IN WASHTENAW...LENAWEE AND MONROE              
COUNTIES TO A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE                
FREEZING THIS EVENING...ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY. THE              
MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOW BACKING INTO THE AREA...AND WITH WITH             
TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND 33 AND FALLING...EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO                 
COMMENCE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS ARE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE             
BEST MOISTURE...SO DOUBT THEY WILL DO ANY BETTER THAN 3-5 INCHES OF             
SNOW...AND LIKELY LESS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. LEFT WAYNE COUNTY IN             
THE WARNING...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE COUNTY WILL FALL SHORT OF 6                  
INCHES GIVEN THE SLOW TURN OVER/ACCUMULATION. EVEN SO...THEY ARE ON             
THE PIVOT POINT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF MOISTURE...SO EXPECT             
A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH              
THE NORTHERN BORDER PUSHING 5 OR 6 INCHES AND THE SOUTH CLOSER TO 3             
MAYBE 4 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.                                               
FURTHER NORTH...EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY (BAY...            
SAGINAW AND SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES). TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY DROP TO             
FREEZING AND CONTINUE TO FALL. THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE                 
SOUTHEAST IS POINTED RIGHT INTO THIS AREA. 18Z MODELS SUGGESTED 6-7             
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 00Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS            
NOW BARE THIS OUT. LEFT MIDLAND COUNTY AS AN ADVISORY BEING A BIT               
TOO FAR WEST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 600 PM                                                    
ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SNOWFALL HAS BEEN COMING IN POCKETS SO FAR...WITH              
SOME OF THE LIGHTER PERIODS STILL MIXED WITH RAIN...CONDITIONS WILL             
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. 18Z MODELS ALL INSIST              
ON A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY               
01/02Z...CARRYING ON THROUGH ABOUT 06-07Z. THERE AREA FINALLY SOME              
SIGNS OF THIS ON SATELLITE AS A STEADY ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUD FEATURES            
HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE SOUTHEAST FEED OF MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE               
BACK TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR RETURNS HAVE RESPONDED IN             
THIS AREA. SO...STILL EXPECT A WINDOW OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW IN THE             
01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME DTW/DET TRENDING INTO MBS BY 03Z-07Z. WILL TAPER              
THE SNOW OFF A BIT LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE             
1-3SM MILE AREA WITH -SN/BLSN. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES             
ON SUNDAY MORNING...W/ JUST BLSN IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING             
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                             
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT                  
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO...WITH              
SECONDARY ENERGY OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR/HEIGHT                    
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP. 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS AROUND 30KFT SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF               
+150KTS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 175KTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW                 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...WITH AN INCREASING AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. METARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAVE                   
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH CHANGE OVER WORKING ITS WAY FROM                    
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. FEW STATIONS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN                
CWA AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES STILL REPORTING RAIN.                    
UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE STRONG UPPER                      
JET/SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES              
TO TAKE A MORE LEFT/NORTHWARD TURN AS WELL...LEADING TO A                       
CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER WESTWARD TREND AND OVERALL IN LINE WITH             
THE GOING FORECAST. COMPARED TO 18Z ACARS OBSERVATIONS...12Z RUNS               
STILL UNDERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM JET...BY ABOUT 6 HOURS             
AND AT LEAST 10KTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF            
THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A FASTER TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS                
COULD LEAD TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.             
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX AND FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM             
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MODEST SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY.                 
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM DTX/PTK SOUTHWARD INDICATE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO            
ACCUMULATE...WITH UP TO HALF INCH IN 45 MINUTES REPORTED. TAMDAR                
SOUNDINGS INTO DTW SHOW THE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH                   
SOUNDINGS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST STILL SHOW FREEZING LEVELS >1.2KFT.            
ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECT MELTING AND                 
DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.             
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA. 18Z RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS WEAK TO NEUTRAL STATIC               
STABILITY...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH            
THETA-E FOLDED OVER. LDN ACTUALLY PICKED UP A COUPLE LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NEAR TOLEDO. AM TEMPTED TO HOLD              
OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AS THE NAM WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS PRETTY            
SHORT AND DIMINISHES AFTER 21Z. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY PRECIP RATES               
THOUGH...AS CAN BE INFERRED FROM SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ACCUMULATING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.                                                        
THE FASTER TREND MAY LIMIT THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHWEST...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT FASTER. HOWEVER EXPECT THE                  
SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING WITH WEAK STABILITY TO HELP US REALIZE              
THE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING             
GOING. THE WESTWARD TREND WOULD ALLOW THE TROWAL TO SETUP FARTHER               
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE THUMB AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. WILL BUMP              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT OVER TOWARD BAY COUNTY. HOWEVER GIVEN               
THE SLOWER CHANGEOVER AND QUESTIONABLE ENHANCEMENT THAT FAR WEST                
WILL KEEP THEM IN AN ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE SNOW TOTAL STILL LOOK                  
GOOD...WITH GREATEST AMOUNT ACROSS THE THUMB WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT              
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF HURON. WILL MENTION DEFINITE BLOWING SNOW             
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE             
MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 40KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SWINGING                   
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH SOME            
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT COULD LEAD TO               
SOME ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS AT LEAST                 
THROUGH THE MORNING DESPITE A QUICKER DEPARTURE TO THE SYSTEM. ADDED            
AREA OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WITH A STRONG GRADIENT AND CONTINUED               
DEEP MIXED LAYER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 407 PM                   
WEEKEND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC                  
THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK AS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY WANES. AT               
THE SAME TIME...THE CLOSED STACKED LOW ALOFT VERY SLOWLY RETREATING             
NORTH/NORTHEAST.                                                                
AFTER MODEST DEEPER MOISTURE WANES SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY                    
SOUTH...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH EARLY PART OF                
WEEK. LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ON THE OTHER HAND...REMAIN              
GENERALLY HIGH THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DYNAMICS SLIGHT AT BEST FROM                 
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY WEEK...INCLUDING LOW TO MID LEVEL QVECTOR            
CONVERGENCE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA LIFT. QPF FIELDS ALSO               
VERY LIGHT...AND NAM ESSENTIALLY EVEN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.                      
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN NAM...                  
TAPPING COLDER THAN MINUS 10C TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEI...AND WITH            
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCH OF THE TIME WITH                
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST FLURRY CHANCES                 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.                                                             
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND...                                  
MODELS SHOW SOME CONSENSUS TOWARD SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD                      
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONSIDERABLE TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS            
AS TO BRINGING OF CLIPPER ON DOWN INTO LAKES REGION...WHICH WHEN                
THIS DOES HAPPEN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RESURGENCE OF COLD ARCTIC             
AIR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 500 MB...CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG           
MODELS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPULSES...BUT MAIN IDEA IS FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS               
LATTER PART OF WEEK...AND WITH AVAILABLE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED                
MOISTURE...AMIDST OVERALL WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SCENARIO                 
PERSISTING...AND WITH BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.                 
AFTER FLURRY CHANCES MENTIONED WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR            
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THEREAFTER IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                 
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070...UNTIL                   
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ075-MIZ076-                     
     MIZ082-MIZ083 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                           
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FROM PORT                 
     AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.            
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                               
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......DG                                                                 
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
253 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF                     
TORONTO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS FA. KILN RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS                 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE              
JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING WHICH IS WORKING CYCLONIC                  
AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER OHIO.                                         
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING REGION IN                      
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW NEAR TORONTO WILL              
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE BRINGING MORE NEUTRAL W/NWLY FLOW.                         
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT                  
ACROSS THE NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WILL                 
DROP ALL HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.                                          
NAM HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS NORTHERN FA. PROGGED SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE             
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE              
ADDING TO ZONES OR HOISTING AN ADVISORY.                                        
FORECAST IS THEN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.                                  
MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WILL ONLY TWEAK A LITTLE HERE AND                    
THERE.                                                                          
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. FOR THOUGHTS OF PREVIOUS                       
FORECASTER SEE BELOW.                                                           
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
SFC LO NOW LOCATED ACRS SRN ONTARIO WITH UPR LO FOLLOWING CLOSELY               
IN ITS WAKE. PCPN PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE SCATTERED AND                
SHOWERY IN CYCLONIC FLO. -SHSN ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL VORT              
DIVING ACRS INDIANA ATTM. 00Z GFS AND 03Z RUC BOTH HAVE STRENGTH                
AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE PEGGED WELL. VORT WILL SLOWLY DROP                 
ACRS ERN INDIANA AND SRN OHIO THRU MID MRNG SUN...AND EXPECTA                   
CONTINUATION OF SCT -SHSN FOR DURATION OF OVERNIGHT. ANY VSBY                   
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO MVFR CAT BASED ON                   
CURRENT OBS ACRS INDIANA. CIGS WILL HOVER BTWN 1000-1500FT ALL                  
NIGHT. HAVE REMOVED -SHSN AFT MRNG HOURS FOR ALL BUT KCMH/KLCK AS               
LARGE AREA OF NVA REPLACES DEPARTING MID LVL VORT. SC DECK WILL                 
SLOWLY LIFT DURING AFTN HOURS...AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT FOR A                  
TIME SUN EVNG AT KCVG AND KLUK. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SC DECK TO                   
HOLD IN MVFR CAT THRU REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
INDCG BNDRY LYR INVERSION DVLPG DURING AFTN AND INTO SUN                        
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS               
INTO REGION OVER TOP OF INVERSION...COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR                 
-FZDZ AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK SUN EVNG. HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF THIS IN               
TAFS...BUT WILL PASS THIS ONTO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL              
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.                        
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 420 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS BOTH               
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST              
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP CARVE OUT TROUGH ACROSS             
EASTERN US WITH MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SPILLING DOWN INTO AREA TOWARD              
NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...SHORT WAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP              
DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS OUR AREA AND WITH BETTER                   
FORCING PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTH SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST                 
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FRIDAY INTO                     
SATURDAY...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES               
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA. AS DEEPER MOISTURE             
MOVES IN AND GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS...WILL GO WITH A                       
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                 
UNDER PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL GENERALLY GO AT OR A LITTLE             
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AND SEVERAL DEGREES             
COLDER LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR THURSDAY INTO                   
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF              
FRONT AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE                
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1244 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
SFC LO NOW LOCATED ACRS SRN ONTARIO WITH UPR LO FOLLOWING CLOSELY               
IN ITS WAKE. PCPN PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE SCATTERED AND                
SHOWERY IN CYCLONIC FLO. -SHSN ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL VORT              
DIVING ACRS INDIANA ATTM. 00Z GFS AND 03Z RUC BOTH HAVE STRENGTH                
AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE PEGGED WELL. VORT WILL SLOWLY DROP                 
ACRS ERN INDIANA AND SRN OHIO THRU MID MRNG SUN...AND EXPECTA                   
CONTINUATION OF SCT -SHSN FOR DURATION OF OVERNIGHT. ANY VSBY                   
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO MVFR CAT BASED ON                   
CURRENT OBS ACRS INDIANA. CIGS WILL HOVER BTWN 1000-1500FT ALL                  
NIGHT. HAVE REMOVED -SHSN AFT MRNG HOURS FOR ALL BUT KCMH/KLCK AS               
LARGE AREA OF NVA REPLACES DEPARTING MID LVL VORT. SC DECK WILL                 
SLOWLY LIFT DURING AFTN HOURS...AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT FOR A                  
TIME SUN EVNG AT KCVG AND KLUK. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SC DECK TO                   
HOLD IN MVFR CAT THRU REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
INDCG BNDRY LYR INVERSION DVLPG DURING AFTN AND INTO SUN                        
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS               
INTO REGION OVER TOP OF INVERSION...COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR                 
-FZDZ AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK SUN EVNG. HAVE MADE NO MENTION OF THIS IN               
TAFS...BUT WILL PASS THIS ONTO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL              
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.                        
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 842 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS DEEP SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE. AS THIS LOW LIFTS             
NE INTO ONTARIO CANADA AND DEPARTS THE REGION EXPECT SNOW TO CONT               
TO TAPER OFF TO WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS. WITH DEEP MSTR AND LIFT               
DEPARTING EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.                  
HAVE GENERALLY OBSERVED 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND AN INCH               
OR LESS IN THE EAST. THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING            
AND REPLACED ALL HEADLINES WITH SNOW ADVISORY THRU 12Z SUNDAY.                  
(ISSUED 420 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO THIS            
AFTERNOON.  KILN RADAR SHOWS ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW PIVOTING                     
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL                    
DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT PIVOTING THIS                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  18Z               
ETA SHOWS A SECONDARY AREA OF DEFORMATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH               
AFTER 06Z.  WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT CURRENT WSWS UP WITH CURRENT            
BREAKDOWN.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE                 
BUMPED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY DOWN...WITH 3 TO 5 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST            
AND 2 TO 4 ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...AND 1 TO 3 ACROSS ADVISORY AREA.               
WINDS PICK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO HAVE MENTIONED                   
BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS THAT HAVE MORE ACCUMULATION.  HAVE ALSO ADDED             
20-30 POPS ON SUNDAY AS SOME DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND               
WEAK VORT ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW.  STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.            
WENT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW COVER.                    
RLG                                                                             
(ISSUED 420 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006)                                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS BOTH               
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST              
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP CARVE OUT TROUGH ACROSS             
EASTERN US WITH MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SPILLING DOWN INTO AREA TOWARD              
NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...SHORT WAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP              
DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                   
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS OUR AREA AND WITH BETTER                   
FORCING PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTH SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST                 
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FRIDAY INTO                     
SATURDAY...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES               
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA. AS DEEPER MOISTURE             
MOVES IN AND GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS...WILL GO WITH A                       
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                 
UNDER PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL GENERALLY GO AT OR A LITTLE             
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AND SEVERAL DEGREES             
COLDER LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR THURSDAY INTO                   
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF              
FRONT AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE                
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...SNOW ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-                  
     070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                                     
KY...SNOW ADVISORY FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                            
IN...SNOW ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 UNTIL 7 AM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1055 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY JUST TO TAKE MORNING WORDING OUT OF THE                    
ZONES. REMOVED FLURRY WORDING TOO...ALTHOUGH A STRAY FLURRY WILL                
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY GIVEN                
THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD END SHORTLY AS IT CONTINUES OFF TO THE NE.                               
LIFR CEILINGS NOTED IN SE IL AND MUCH OF IN. THIS IS MOVING TO THE              
SOUTHEAST. SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CLEARING                  
ACROSS MY SWRN CWA...NEAR BOWLING GREEN AND SURROUNDING                         
COMMUNITIES...I EXPECT THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO                   
FILTER INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND RUC                  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE TOWARD                     
EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE SOME AREAS WITH A GLIMPSE OR TWO OF                     
SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS                  
WILL SKIRT THE SWRN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD POSE NO               
OTHER THREAT.                                                                   
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW COVER...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE              
OR TWO. THINK BLUEGRASS REGION WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 30...SO               
HAVE LOWERED THE HIGHS TO RIGHT AROUND THERE. A NICE DAY TO STAY                
INDOORS AND ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL THIS EVENING. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.               
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1220 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERNIGHT MODELS APPRD TO HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGRESSIVE IN SATURATING              
VERY DRY AIR MASS...AND 1200 UTC RUNS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SUIT                 
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE                        
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MORE                 
SUNSHINE...BOTH WINDS/TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST.              
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK BORDER SHOULD BREAK INTO THE 50S. WARM                
TEMPERATURES ALSO SUGGEST ANY SORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL                 
OCCUR LATER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT                    
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LACK OF BAROCLINICITY AND WARM AIR              
ADVECTION FURTHER SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION/TRACE                
EVENT. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT PART TO BLEND BETTER               
WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST...AND SUSPECT AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL                    
FURTHER REFINE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION                   
TYPE. GRIDS/PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED. -HOWERTON                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SNOW              
TODAY AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.                                    
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS              
THE ROCKIES. THE VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO              
BE NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR                
LIKE THIS FEATURE IS DIGGING THAT MUCH...BUT THERE IS A HINT OF DRY             
SLOT TRYING TO REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THE RUC APPEARS TO              
HAVE THE SURFACE LOW PLACED TO FAR EAST...SO THIS WAVE MAY END UP               
COMING THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE ARE CONTINUING TO               
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE             
NAM DOES SHOW THE THETA SURFACES REALLY RISING BETWEEN 280-290K                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP SATURATE THINGS UP FAIRLY                  
QUICKLY. THERE IS EVEN A HINT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WHEN THIS MID            
LEVEL COLD POCKET MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                
COBB OUTPUT FROM THE ETA IS NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ALL            
THIS EVENING, BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH AROUND              
CHANUTE. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...SINCE THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE               
STARVED FOR MOISTURE...EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD. WE ARE               
NOT GOING TO MAKE MANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BUT WE MAY ADD THE                
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/135                 
CORRIDOR TONIGHT DUE TO A LOW LEVEL COLD POCKET AROUND 280K MOVING              
THROUGH THE REGION. WE ARE NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY HEADLINE SINCE              
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS DRIZZLE WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE WHICH SHOULD                
KEEP MOST OF THE ROADWAYS IN GOOD SHAPE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALSO BE                 
TAKING OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM              
ACROSS THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WE               
DID RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST              
KANSAS TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THEM DOWN. FORECAST                   
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END OF HIGH.                                           
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
NO REAL BIG CHANGES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDS IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALSO DOES NOT               
SHOW MUCH OF A CHANGE EITHER WITH THE POSITION OF THE TROF IN THE               
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CANADIAN CLIPPER TO PASS THROUGH REGION             
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WE              
WILL NOT BE ADDING POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE              
IS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.                                                         
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:                                                             
WE ARE NOT MAKING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE                 
FORECAST PACKAGE EITHER. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT            
WITH THE TROF DEEPENING ACROSS THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE               
POLAR AIR TO ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS TENDS TO             
AGREE MORE WITH THE UKMET AND IS TENDING TO FLIP FLOP A LITTLE ON               
THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALL SHOWING A COLD POLAR HIGH                  
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP                  
BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. WE DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR              
TWO ON FRIDAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS DRY DUE TO LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE             
FETCH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    47  23  47  23 /  10  20   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      46  23  47  23 /  20  20   0   0                                
NEWTON          45  23  46  23 /  20  20   0   0                                
ELDORADO        45  23  47  23 /  10  30   5   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  24  48  23 /  10  20   0   0                                
RUSSELL         42  22  46  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      45  22  46  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
SALINA          42  22  45  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       45  22  46  22 /  20  20   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     45  24  47  24 /  10  30  10   0                                
CHANUTE         42  24  46  23 /  10  30  10   0                                
IOLA            42  24  45  23 /  10  30   5   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
235 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN US THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD ENSURING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. S/WS WILL DROP SE IN THE NW FLOW            
FROM TIME TO TIME BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND ANY PCPN PRODUCED            
WILL BE LIGHT.                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN             
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW            
TO RETREAT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE SO WILL GO A LITTLE MORE            
PESSIMISTIC ON SKY COVER AND BASE THE GRIDS OFF OF THE RUC40                    
MOISTURE FIELDS. CIGS SHOULD BRAKE EVEN UP N HOWEVER BY SHORTLY                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO OVER THE NE COUNTIES               
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THESE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. A S/W WILL            
SWING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MON AND MON NIGHT CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS               
OVER THE DEEP S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR S TO HAVE MUCH OF AN               
IMPACT ON THE JKL CWA. ANOTHER WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED VORT SWINGS            
ACROSS ON TUE BUT JUST SOME MID AND HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS.           
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP NUMBERS DROP OFF ESPECIALLY IN               
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OUT W AND LOW DEWS AND FAIR SKIES MON NIGHT               
AND TUE NIGHT SHOULD HELP TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW COOLER GUIDANCE                
NUMBERS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MAV                   
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS ON MON AND TUE SEEMED TOO HIGH W/ H85 TEMPS ONLY             
REBOUNDING INTO THE -6C TO -5C RANGE DURING THOSE PERIODS...                    
SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40F TO 45F RANGE W/ FULL SUNSHINE.                  
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WED WILL START OUT WITH A                 
PLAINS RIDGE AND AN EAST COAST TROF. THIS PATTERN PLACES ERN KY IN              
NRLY FLOW AND DRY. THE COLD NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS SUPPRESSED AS            
HIGHS WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED                 
PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID               
20S.                                                                            
HAVE FOLLOWED THE EXTENDED GFS FOR THIS FCST AS A CANADIAN VORTEX               
BRUSHES THE CWFA ON FRI BUT BRINGS LITTLE MOISTURE OUT OF THE                   
CANADIAN PLAINS SO EXPECTING LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF                  
CLIPPER S/WV WILL PLUNGE INTO THE ERN TROF TO REINFORCE THE PATTERN             
WHILE DOING LITTLE TO BRING APPRECIABLE PCPN TO ERN KY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1030 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE                
COALFIELDS AND ERN BLUEGRASS REGION W/ A 2 TO 4 INCH SWATCH OVER                
BATH AND FLEMING COS. WHERE HEAVIER BAND SETUP YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.             
SEE PNSJKL FOR A ROUNDUP OF AREA SNOWFALL OBS.                                  
MID MORNING SURFACE AND H85 HAND ANALYSES REVEAL COLDEST AIR ALOFT              
ASSOCIATED W/ H85 TROF CENTERED OVER THE JKL CWA W/ TEMPS AROUND                
-12C. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER EXTREME SE IL AND IN AND              
THIS IS PAIRED W/ A WEAK H85 REFLECTION WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON THE              
CHART...W WINDS NOTED OVER LOU BUT NW WINDS REPORTED AT ILX...AND               
ON THE VIZ SAT IMAGERY...BAND OF MVFR SC STRETCHING FROM SRN IL INTO            
NW KY. SR MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL AND BELIEVE AS              
IT CONTINUES SE SLOWLY INTO ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL CONTINUE              
TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG W/ CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.                
WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE SOME POPS INTO THE                
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. SOME BINOVC                
STILL APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SW THIRD BUT STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A                
FLURRY THERE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE                  
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTERNOON W/ CAA AND EXTENSIVE                
CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A MINIMAL RISE.                                        
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT ALONG ONCE FINALIZED. HAVE A GOOD                 
DAY...AND ENJOY THE SNOW!                                                       
425 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. ONCE THE                    
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CANCELED              
THE SNOW ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR              
TODAY. A FEW RIDGETOPS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY MAY STILL SEE UP TO AN            
INCH...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING THE ADVISORY.               
HAD A FEW REPORTS EARLIER OF 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF                  
HARLAN COUNTY AND ON THE RIDGES IN OWSLEY AND PERRY COUNTIES.                   
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY AND SKIES                      
SCATTERING OUT TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES                 
TODAY...AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO            
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE              
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC. GFS AND ETA BOTH            
KEEP A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
MAIN CHALLENGE AFTER THE SNOW DEPARTS TODAY IS TEMPERATURES. MAV                
NUMBERS ARE WARMER FOR THE SHORT TERM. WITH WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW             
OVER THE AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET            
NUMBERS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THE NEXT FEW             
NIGHTS. ADDED A RANGE OR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT            
AND MONDAY NIGHT WHERE NEEDED IN THE ZONES.                                     
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ABE/DUSTY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
348 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF MARQUETTE AND IMPACT            
OF DRY AIR ELSEWERE.                                                            
CURRENT WEATHER...20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SE ONTARIO. MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO VERTICALLY                
STACKED AS A 981MB SURFACE LOW EXISTS BENEATH THE 500MB LOW. DEEP               
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW...WITH THE WESTERN               
EDGE EAST OF A LINE FROM STANNARD ROCK TO ESCANABA PER SATELLITE                
IMAGERY. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES UNDER THIS               
DEEPER MOISTURE ON KMQT RADAR IMAGERY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT LEAST UP             
TO NOON WERE AS HIGH AS 4-5 INCHES...PARTICULARLY OVER NEWBERRY.                
OVER MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES...ONLY AN INCH OR TWO HAS OCCURRED            
SO FAR FROM THE LAKE EFFECT. THE BIGGER CONCERN HAS BEEN BLOWING                
SNOW DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH. WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT            
EXIST...THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY COLLAPSED.             
THIS IS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR CROSSING THE LAKE AS SEEN BY THE 12Z                
KINL SOUNDING AND 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING. IN FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES            
ALONG THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AS                    
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 30-40 F. ALL OF THE CLEAR SKIES                
THAT ARE PRESENT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1024MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE             
OVER MINNESOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS              
PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A STRONGER RIDGE WAS MOVING              
INTO THE WEST COAST. A COUPLE OF WEAKENING SHRTWVS EXIST BETWEEN                
THESE TWO RIDGES.                                                               
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NE TONIGHT             
WHILE A SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH ACROSS               
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHRTWV MAY HELP RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS AS IT               
CROSSES THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH DECENT MOISTURE                         
AROUND...BOTH FROM LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC...AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL             
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A GOOD SETUP EXISTS FOR PLENTY OF SNOWFALL FROM            
THE PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD. NEW 18Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE            
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND SHOWS SNOW INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE                
NIGHT...AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.40-0.50 ARE SUGGESTED            
FOR TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD YIELD ABOUT 8 INCHES USING A 20 TO 1                  
RATIO...COMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT. SINCE NEWBERRY HAS ALREADY PICKED UP            
NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS BY NOW (MANY HOURS OF 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY AT                
NEWBERRY SINCE NOON)...WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR                
LUCE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT               
COUNTIES. STRONG WINDS SHOULD EVEN PUSH SOME OF THE SNOW INTO                   
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS...HAVE                
OPTED TO PUT OUT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR               
THAT AREA. SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH UP TO             
ANOTHER 0.25 INCH POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN U.P.                 
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR IS HAVING A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE WEATHER. THERE              
IS SOME CONCERN THAT WITH DIURNAL COOLING...LAKE EFFECT COULD GET               
GOING AGAIN...BUT SATELLITE PICTURES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST             
THAT IT IS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE HAVE MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO DROP             
A LOT OF THE WEATHER IN THE CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT               
FOR BLOWING SNOW WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE KEWEENAW. WITH THE CLEARING            
SKIES...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER PLENTY OF                
WIND TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW ZERO. GALE                
WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS STDM4 HAS              
HAD GALES ALL DAY AND MODELS SHOW WINDS STAYING NEARLY THE SAME OR              
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.                                                    
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE THEIR            
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS QUEBEC AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS                 
BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -13C THROUGH              
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT...BUT WITH SO            
MUCH DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE TAKEN MUCH OF             
IT OUT. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE LAKE EFFECT CHANCES PERSIST IS OVER THE            
EASTERN U.P. WHERE THE LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY WINDS CAN DRAW THE               
MOST MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE               
LIGHT THOUGH. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ARE AGAIN A                         
CONCERN...AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR AS                
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER.                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF ALL                 
SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY 12Z WED               
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 00Z THU. RH FORECASTS SHOW EVEN            
DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THIS HIGH...WHICH MAKES SENSE FROM ITS                 
SOURCE REGION. THEREFORE HAVE SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/CLOUDS                  
PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY                   
MORNING...THEN HAVE THEM ENDING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY             
AND HAVE LOWS NEAR ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE MAY            
NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS                    
PREDICTED BY THE NAM/GFS DO NOT PAN OUT. WEDNESDAY\S HIGHS SHOULD               
END UP WARMER AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB.                                             
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY                
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHOWING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY            
IN THIS PERIOD...THANKS TO A STRONG SYSTEM THAT COMES OUT OF THE NE             
PACIFIC ON TUESDAY. THE PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AS            
COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH             
AMERICA. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES TO NOTE WHICH MAKE SOME OF THE             
EXTENDED FORECAST TROUBLESOME. THE DIFFERENCES START OFF WITH WHERE             
THE SYSTEM THAT COMES OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC. THE 12Z ECMWF FROM                 
YESTERDAY AND NOW THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW IT DIGGING MORE INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE U.P.                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A DECENT SNOW              
EVENT ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IF IT WENT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.            
HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW CANADIAN...UKMET AND GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO                
SHOW A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION                
WILL END UP CORRECT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE STRONG NATURE OF THE                
SYSTEM. NEW 12Z GFS LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF RUNS NOW SO WILL                 
TREND TOWARDS THIS IDEA.                                                        
NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE THURSDAY TRACK...ALL MODELS SHOW THE            
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH            
850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW -12C. THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD               
IMMEDIATELY FORM BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO               
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS UNDER            
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING             
MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES MORE.            
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...TWO SHRTWVS DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH             
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY            
00Z SUN. EXTRAPOLATION OF THESE SHRTWVS AND SURFACE LOW WOULD HAVE              
THEM MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SYNOPTIC SNOW TO             
THE U.P.. THE CANADIAN AND 06Z GFS SHOW A DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH               
JUST A BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC...              
KEEPING LAKE EFFECT GOING. IN EITHER CASE...CHANCES OF SNOW ARE                 
WARRANTED.                                                                      
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE VERY COLD AIR THAT THEY               
SHOWED YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE 06Z GFS RUN WHICH STILL DROPS                 
850MB TEMPS INTO THE LOW -20S C OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THESE                   
READINGS ARE STILL WARMER THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY...SO PREFER THE             
ECMWF FOR 850MB TEMPS. READINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE CLOSE            
TO NORMAL...BUT IF ANY CLEARING CAN OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD...BELOW             
ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006-MIZ007-               
MIZ085.                                                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY               
FOR MIZ014.                                                                     
GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
341 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF                     
GEORGIAN BAY...WITH A SHEAR AXIS/JET WRAPPED BACK FROM THE MID                  
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...TRYING TO REDEVELOP DOWN                  
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW                 
LINGERING WEAK ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH STRONGER                 
RETURNS APPARENT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON THE EXETER/WSO RADAR. IR                  
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME ENHANCED/COLDER CLOUD TOPS TRYING TO MOVE                  
DOWN ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW              
IS LEADING TO DRYING AND LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS THE SAGINAW                     
VALLEY...BUT ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO                
LOWER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAX.                                           
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS                  
QUEBEC TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOW PRETTY            
LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...FURTHER DROPPING OVERNIGHT. 18Z RUC                     
INITIALIZATION OF INVERSION AROUND 4-5KFT LOOKS GOOD COMPARED TO                
18Z/19Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. WITH CURRENT LIGHT ACTIVITY AND INCREASING            
SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT...WILL CARRY LOW POPS THIS EVENING AND DRY                 
OVERNIGHT. DECREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT KEPT               
ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY GIVEN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS              
PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.                       
WEAK SHOT OF LIFT ON MONDAY SEEN BY WEAK 850-500MB QVECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE VORT SHEAR AXIS THAT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS               
MAY HELP TO LIFT INVERSIONS A BIT. DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH STEEPENING              
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE                
MORE OF AN IMPACT...LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS. OVERALL PATTERN WITH            
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WOULD TEND            
TO SUPPORT HIGH POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HOWEVER ONLY KEPT A              
MENTION OF FLURRIES GIVEN WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND                  
LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH. ADJUSTED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO REFLECT SIMILAR             
READINGS TO TODAY...JUST A TOUCH COLDER OVERALL. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT            
IN THE NORTHERN CWA UNDER THE CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. BUMPED                
TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW            
COVER HAS ALLOWED THEM CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING DIMINISHING SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW            
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEHIND THE RETREATING STORM SYSTEM OF THIS                    
WEEKEND. THEN...MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGE                 
BUILDING OVERHEAD AT MID WEEK...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD               
FRONT LATTER PART OF WEEK WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW PASSING THROUGH THE            
AREA FRIDAY THEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE USHERING IN COLDER              
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH 12Z GFS RUN SLOWS DOWN THE COLD                
FRONT CONSIDERABLY IN FAVOR OF LOW CENTER SETTLING IN OVER LOWER MI             
INTO SATURDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z WRFXX SHOWED A RIDGE NOSING IN BY              
LATE SATURDAY...BUT THE 12Z WRFXX HOLDS BACK THIS OCCURRENCE                    
UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY...AS OPPOSED TO CONTINUING CYCLONIC WEST TO                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PER OTHER MODELS.             
AT 500 MB...MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF            
CANADA TO SOUTH OF THE LAKES REGION AROUND MID WEEK...BUT MUCH MORE             
ROBUST ENERGY LATER ON IN THE WEEK CARVING OUT A BROAD LOW/TROUGH               
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY AND LINGERING NEXT WEEKEND.               
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NOT MUCH              
THROUGH MID WEEK AT LEAST...BEFORE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD END              
OF WEEK. THIS ALSO REFLECTED IN SLIM QPF FIELDS UNTIL AT LEAST                  
THURSDAY. 925 MB MOISTURE...ON THE OTHER HAND...PRETTY GOOD UNTIL               
LESSENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE AT MID WEEK.                  
LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT FIELDS SUGGEST GENERAL SUBSIDENCE                   
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC LIFT SEEN.                         
BOTTOM LINE...NO INTENSE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE             
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE...BRIEFLY SHOWING SLIGHT               
MODERATION AFTER MID WEEK...THEN REINFORCED COLD AIR BY NEXT                    
WEEKEND. AM NOT MAKING CHANGES TO WEATHER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
FLURRIES EARLY WEEK...THEN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE             
OF SNOW SHOWERS ANY TIME THEREAFTER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 104 PM EST SUN                                               
LINGERING AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES APPARENT ON RADAR ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL CWA...WITH SCATTERED WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES STILL MAKING IT              
IN FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOWER. CARRIED PREDOMINATE FLURRIES AT             
MBS/FNT/DTW...WITH MVFR SNOW FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT DET UNTIL THE                
HIGHER RETURNS CLEAR OUT. KEPT WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...AND                
STRONG SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THE BETTER MIXING BUT                     
MAINTAIN A DECENT GRADIENT. TOUGH CALL AS TO CIGS OVERNIGHT...AS                
INVERSIONS SLOWLY EDGE DOWNWARD AND STRENGTHEN. HELD ONTO MVFR FOR              
ALL EXCEPT MBS...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP TO              
ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS FASTER.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON                  
 INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.                                     
GALE WARNING...OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.                               
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
   GALE WARNING...UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.                                            
   LOW WATER ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION...BRAVENDER                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE WIND/LES TRENDS.                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPR LVL LOW E OF               
GEORGIAN BAY WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV LOBE OVER NRN ONTARIO.                         
TIGHT GRADIENT BTWN NRN PLAINS RDG AND 981 MB LOW PRES OVER ERN                 
ONTARIO HAS KEPT GALES GOING OVER THE E HLF OF LK SUPERIOR AND GUSTY            
WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WITH PLENTY OF BLOWING               
SNOW.                                                                           
RADAR INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL DIMINISHING TREND SINCE EARLIER THIS                
MORNING. WITH VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM(DEWPOINTS TO NEAR -10F) AND                 
BNDRY LYR MIXING BACK EDGE OF LACK CLOUDS HAS PROGRESSED PAST MID               
LAKE OVER THE WEST. CYQT 12Z TAMDAR SNDG INDICATED 925 TEMP NEAR                
-15C WITH LOW LVL ISOTHERMAL PRFL AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABV 850 MB.            
BETTER UPSTREAM MOISTURE NOTED NE CYQT TOWARD CYGQ THAT HAS                     
MAINTAINED BETTER LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF            
THE LAKE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DOMINANT BANDS WITH MOSTLY THIN              
MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS OVER THE NRN LAKE AND MORE CELLULAR                
APPEARANCE OVER THE SOUTH.                                                      
EXPECT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHT                   
GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE AS THE LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NE. LES SHOULD              
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AS ADDITIONAL MIXING FURTHER                 
DRIES OUT ALREADY UNFAVORABLE LOW LVL MOISTURE PRFL. TO THE                     
EAST...LES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AND MAY PICK UP LATE AS THE NRN                 
ONTARIO SHRTWV LOBE BRUSHES THE AREA. SO...NO CHANGE IN HEADLINES               
WERE NEEDED AND UPDATE INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW                        
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 535 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006.                            
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF            
THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR DETROIT AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH RIDGING IN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS ERN CANADA              
AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN               
HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE              
WEATHER FOR THE CWA AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND KEEPS              
THE TROUGH FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE EAST THROUGH TUE.                        
NAM SHOWS THIS LOW HEADING NORTH TODAY AND WRAPAROUND PART OF THE               
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR                
TODAY. THE MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CWA DOES NOT MOVE OUT UNTIL 00Z TUE            
WHEN THE 500 MB LOW IS FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE EAST TO TAKE THE                   
WRAPAROUND PART OF THE STORM OFF TO THE EAST. GFS AND NAM ARE                   
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS                  
FORECAST. BOTH MODELS KEEP 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OUT OF               
THE CWA TODAY JUST TO THE EAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE              
MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT. GFS DOES GO COOLER WITH THEM DURING THE               
DAY GOING FROM -10C TO -12C AT 12Z DOWN TO -12C TO -16C BY 00Z. NAM             
IS WARMER AND HAS TEMPERATURES FROM -10C TO -12C AND WITH LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES AROUND 2C TO 3C...THIS IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE               
EFFECT UNTIL LATE TODAY...BUT BY THEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS GONE.              
AM A LITTLE LEARY ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES GOING DOWN TO -16C AT 850              
WHEN LOOKING AT 00Z 850 MB RAOBS...CWPL IS ONLY -14C AND NO -16C IS             
VISIBLE IN ANY OF THE RAOB PLOTS. WILL GO WITH WARMER NAM                       
TEMPERATURES WHICH PRODUCE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AS GFS HAS OVERDONE              
THE COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES LATELY.                                          
DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR             
TODAY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY BASED ON LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME SEEDER            
FEEDER GOING ON AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS GOING OVER THE TOP OF SOME            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WHEN THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS ENDED              
UP ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY. THINK THIS WILL GO             
ON THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WINDS CONTINUE NORTHERLY...AND THEN               
THIS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND GOES MORE NW. THINK            
1-4 INCHES LOOK GOOD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AND COMBINED THIS WITH                
BLOWING SNOW...FELT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WAS              
IN ORDER FOR THE LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. DECIDED TO DO            
THE SAME THING FOR ALGER AND ALSO ADDED LUCE AND NORTHERN                       
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO THIS ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COMBINATION OF              
WIND AND SNOW. LUCE COUNTY WILL HAVE SNOW MORE DUE TO THE WRAPAROUND            
THEN LAKE EFFECT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THERE. AS YOU GO             
FURTHER WEST...THE LAKE EFFECT TAKES OVER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GET            
COLDER AND THERE IS LESS SEEDER-FEEDER GOING ON WITH THE WRAPAROUND             
CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINK 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY FOR             
TODAY AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE AREAS OF             
BLOWING SNOW...THOUGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY               
WAS APPROPRIATE FOR LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND ALGER                     
COUNTIES. WENT WITH 1-4 INCHES TODAY ACROSS THE WEST ALSO AS CALLS              
OUT TO IRONWOOD REVEALED 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THIS DID              
SEEM HIGH CONSIDERING THAT THE AIRMASS IS DRIER OVER THERE...BUT WAS            
CONFIRMED BY MORE THAN ONE SOURCE. EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR                        
UPSTREAM...MUST BE GETTING GREATER THAN A 20 TO 1 RATIO TO GET THAT             
TYPE OF SNOW AMOUNT...AND THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY.                   
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW WITH CWPL 00Z SOUNDING AROUND 925              
MB AND KINL NOT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT...SO THINK THINGS WILL NOT GET             
TOO OUT OF HAND IN THE WEST.                                                    
THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AT LEAST WITH               
COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND NW WINDS CONTINUING...BUT DEEP MOISTURE            
IS GONE AFTER TONIGHT...SO PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL START UP TONIGHT.              
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR               
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MIZ005.               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MON                   
MIZ006-007-085.                                                                 
GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB(UPDATE)                                                                     
MICHELS(PREV DISC)                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
250 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST            
CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AND               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH             
TO SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. EAST WINDS             
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CWA...CONTINUE TO              
ADVECT COOL DRY AIR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS. RUC MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE TRACKING              
ACROSS COLORADO PROVIDING THE DYNAMICS FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.                 
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT             
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW                 
SNOW ALOFT ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT DRY AIR              
NEAR THE SFC IS EVAPORATING NEARLY ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION BEFORE             
IT CAN REACH THE GROUND. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS WILL GRADUALLY            
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY WEST OF            
HWY 183. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO A HALF              
INCH OF SNOW IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW MORNING. CENTRAL            
AND EASTERN ZONES REALLY NEVER FULLY MOISTEN UP...WHICH THANKS TO               
EXTENSIVE EVAPORATION OF SNOW ALOFT...THE 281 CORRIDOR SHOULD ONLY              
SEE A DUSTING OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL BE             
EVEN DRIER AND MAY ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL           
AFTER SUNSET.                                                                   
A GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH OF AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IS COOL              
AIR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.  IN                 
ADDITION...A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL SLIDE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE              
WEST COAST RIDGE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES TO OUR               
EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.                                                       
.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE              
INVOLVES TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE           
EXTENDED PERIODS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS LITTLE                
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT           
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A BROAD                
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES              
NORTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. LOW           
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE PEAK IN DAYTIME             
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE U.S. WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE            
LOCAL AREA THAT WILL BRING NOTICIBLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES            
THAN THOSE SEEN ON THURSDAY. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL                      
WEEKS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR                 
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY           
AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE                  
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND OUTWARD FROM ITS                 
CENTER. ON SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND             
THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION                
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.                                        
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WESELY\JAR                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1112 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...FROM WESTERN               
OKLAHOMA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY                           
CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE WELL DEFINED CENTER. PRESSURE FALLS                      
CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 44                        
CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THAT              
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT WAS                   
LIFTING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND BEHIND                 
THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WAS AIMING TO CATCH UP AS IT MOVED OUT OF                
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALL THIS EVIDENCE COMBINED WITH              
LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC AND GFS MODELS...SUPPORT THE GOING WIND                  
FORECAST...WHICH FEATURES GUSTY SOUTH WINDS GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER               
WEST WINDS...THEN GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AS THE SURFACE LOW                        
PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO RAISE           
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CLEARING SKIES AND A TEMPORARY              
DOWNSLOPE WIND THAT WILL DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS DURING PEAK                      
HEATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN FAR              
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.                                                         
GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...POCKETS OF EXTREME                  
FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND                  
IN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE EVENT                
STILL LOOKS BEST HANDLED WITH THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WHICH IS                
ALREADY IN PLACE.                                                               
ALSO LOOKED INTO WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND DO NOT                      
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO EXTREME AT THIS TIME. DEEP MIXING AND COLD              
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY AFTERNOON AND                       
EVENING...BUT THE FORECAST MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS DO NOT SUPPORT            
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BURKE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 351 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2006)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FIRE WX IS OF SOME CONCERN TODAY WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY REACHING                
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER... APPEARS THAT TIMING OF THE CORRECT               
PARAMETERS WILL BE OFF ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG                    
WARNING AND COVER WITH THE RFD/HWO/ETC. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE           
INTO WEST CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLE BY AROUND MID DAY CAUSING                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SE PORTIONS              
OF FA WHERE DEWPTS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. SW PORTIONS OF FA              
WILL LIKELY HAVE RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT BELIEVE WHEN LIGHTER               
WINDS OVR THE AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE INTO TX THIS                  
AFTN CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE                
COULD ALSO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF INCREASED FIRE WX CONDITIONS                    
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS TEEN DEWPTS MOVE INTO THE FA ALONG WITH                
THE STRONG NW WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE THIS COMBINATION                
COULD OCCUR WOULD BE WEST CENTRAL/SW OK. HOWEVER... WOULD LIKELY                
BE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR BEGINNING TO FALL              
SO RH VALUES MAY NOT HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT.              
WILL DESCRIBE THESE THINGS IN PRODUCTS MENTIONED ABOVE AND LET DAY              
SHIFT CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBILITIES OF NEEDING TO ISSUE A               
WARNING.                                                                        
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TONITE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHER PLAINS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN NE PORTIONS OF FA... SO HAVE            
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF DOES HAPPEN... WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS                
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RA AND MAY SWITCH OVR TO FZ DZ/SNOW FLURRIES JUST               
BEFORE ENDING. THE FREEZING PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO            
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE                
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF AN UPR LOW THAT ROTATES FROM             
THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK. THIS WILL                 
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE                
AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SHOT OF EVEN COLDER CANADIAN AIR MOVING             
INTO THE ARE LATE THIS WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER... STILL DO NOT               
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THESE SYSTEMS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR                   
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  30  51  27 /   0  10   0   0                              
HOBART OK         66  28  55  26 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  32  58  29 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           57  22  53  22 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     50  25  48  23 /  10  20   0   0                              
DURANT OK         65  36  53  29 /   0  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20/25                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1034 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES                  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE ENTERING THE NEBRASKA                          
PANHANDLE...AND THE OTHER DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. AT THE              
SURFACE...TROUGH BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS CURRENTLY OVER             
THE AREA WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES            
RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...TO THE LOW 30S              
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.                                
A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA...WITH RADAR REFLECTIVITY ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH             
DAKOTA. CURRENT RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP FIELDS THIS                 
MORNING...AND HAVE BASED AFTERNOONS FORECAST ON ITS OUTPUT. SNOW                
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS AND THE             
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH             
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE MORE FAVORED AREAS OF            
THE BLACK HILLS. WITH PRECIP FALLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY               
ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL                   
DEGREES. SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF MONTANA WILL SLIDE ACROSS             
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...SO WILL MOST LIKELY BE UPPING               
POPS ACROSS THAT AREA IN THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST             
UPDATES ARE OUT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL               
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT            
WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AROUND.                  
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd