AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
800 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS EVENING.                
MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE LARGE AND DOMINANT LONGWAVE TROUGH                  
COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. EXTREMELY COLD              
ARCTIC AIR IS IN PLACE UNDER THIS TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS               
TO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH              
WE FIND AMPLIFIED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA            
SOUTH TO CALIFORNIA. OUR AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF              
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF                   
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE ARE BEING DRAWN UP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF              
THE TROUGH AND RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CANOPY                 
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
DRY COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND DRIER            
AIR IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST                 
AREA. AS OF 730 PM EST THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME                    
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SIGNIFICANT               
CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA               
BIG BEND AND COASTAL PANHANDLE ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S AND                 
LOWER 30S...WHILE ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE NORTH INTO GA AND AL             
THE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE FRONT IS NOW             
THROUGH DOTHAN AND ALBANY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH             
THE TEENS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ALSO SEEN JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH                  
READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE 30S AND UPPER 20S AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL              
GA/AL. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING PROFILE FROM BIRMINGHAM ACTUALLY NOW                 
SHOWING A RECOGNIZABLE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC INVERSION PROFILE. THIS                 
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ALL             
NIGHT AND WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA              
BY DAWN.                                                                        
CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT             
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 30S            
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER            
20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE               
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL STILL EXPECT THE NORTHERLY WINDS                
TO HOLD IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COLD                   
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THIS WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDCHILL VALUES              
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. EVEN FOR AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA THE WINDCHILL VALUES TOWARD               
SUNRISE WILL BE APPROACHING 20F...SO BUNDLE UP IF YOU ARE HEADING               
OUT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ONE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS UPDATE             
WILL BE TO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE              
THIN CIRRUS CANOPY STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                             
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY               
SUNNY...BUT COOL DAY...EVEN FOR JANUARY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING             
IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...AND                 
SETTING UP A LONG DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MANY                
SPOTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION               
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN             
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ...AS THE                
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AND WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS STILL                   
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE                    
POSSIBLE EXTREME COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS THAT WAS              
EARLIER EVIDENT IN MANY OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS IS APPEARING LESS             
LIKELY WITH TIME...AS THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE TOO FAR TO               
OUR NE TO ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS NEEDED             
FOR LOWS THIS COLD. IF THE SFC WINDS REMAIN AT 2-4 KTS FOR MUCH OF              
THE NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO               
LOWER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE COAST...SO WILL ADJUST                 
TEMPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ON THIS PACKAGE. WILL ALSO INITIATE A HARD                
FREEZE WATCH OVER ALL AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD            
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HARD FREEZE             
OVER ABOUT THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DESPITE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10            
KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS              
OVER THESE SAME AREAS (15 DEGREES OR BELOW) LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER TO            
THE SE...EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE WITH WIND CHILLS IN             
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION EMERGING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING BEHIND A                
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT.             
WIND GUSTS MAY EVEN APPROACHING 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY                  
FRIDAY MORNING. HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST IS MORE IN                  
QUESTION...AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH AN END TIME OF FRIDAY                 
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ZONES DUE TO LINGERING                 
SEAS. ANOTHER SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THIS MAY HAVE            
TO BE ADJUSTED AT A LATER TIME.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UNLIMITED CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...                
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL SMOKE PLUMES THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS                 
AROUND 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH             
BY FRIDAY EVENING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  28  48  17  54  27 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
PANAMA CITY  30  49  24  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
DOTHAN       24  44  20  52  33 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
ALBANY       24  44  20  51  29 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
VALDOSTA     28  49  17  54  28 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
CROSS CITY   28  51  19  58  29 /   0   0   0   0  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                           
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...                 
     HOUSTON.                                                                   
     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                    
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                    
     GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                         
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                    
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...                     
     BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...                     
     DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...                        
     LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                        
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                       
     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...CALHOUN...                   
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...IRWIN...LEE...                
     MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...TERRELL...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...CALHOUN...                   
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...IRWIN...LEE...                
     MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...TERRELL...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM              
     CST/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                      
     COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...                      
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...                
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                  
     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...                 
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/           
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL                  
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                     
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALL NEARSHORE               
     AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES BETWEEN DESTIN FLORIDA AND THE MOUTH             
     OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOULD                                                     
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1146 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1037 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                              
WILL BE CANCELLING THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LATE                  
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. ALL THE WIND CHILLS HAD MODIFIED                
ABOVE MINUS 15F EXCEPT BLOOMINGTON WAS STILL AT MINUS 25F. COOLED               
THE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER               
FROM I-74 NE WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS NEAR 15F FROM                      
SPRINGFIELD AND ROBINSON SW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PASSING                    
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SW AREAS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.                   
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS STRONG 1045 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE              
NEAR EVANSVILLE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING ACROSS IL. AIR             
TEMPERATURES WERE ZERO TO 10F FROM DECATUR NORTH WITH BLOOMINGTON               
COLDEST AT MINUS 10F WHILE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE SOUTH OF DECATUR.                   
LIGHT SOUTH TO CALM WINDS.                                                      
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO 1040 MB OVER SOUTHERN OHIO BY                   
00Z/6 PM WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES SE ACROSS MO               
KEEPING MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SW OF CENTRAL IL TODAY.              
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR AND NEAR 15 SW.                  
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                              
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS                       
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z/SAT. STRONG 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE                  
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING OVER IL AT MIDDAY WILL MOVE              
EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z/SAT. 1010 MB LOW                      
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SHORT WAVE OVER ALBERTA                 
WILL RACE SE INTO WI BY 18Z/SAT...KEEPING THE LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER              
CLOUDS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THOUGH APPROACHING PIA BY 18Z/SAT. MID               
LEVEL CLOUDS SW OF SPI OVER SW IL AND MO WILL TRACE SE THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE CLOSE TO SPI. HAVE THESE CLOUDS MOVING EAST               
FROM SPI TO BMI AND CMI BY MID EVENING FROM 02Z TO 04Z. LIGHT SSW               
WINDS BECOME SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO              
20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS BY SAT MORNING DUE TO INCREASING              
PRESSURE GRADIENT.                                                              
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 225 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                               
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND                      
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE BECOME RATHER                  
LIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT WERE STILL LOCALLY CLOSE TO 10 MPH                    
ACROSS SOME OF THE NORMALLY BREEZIER AREAS OF THE EAST CENTRAL                  
CWA. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WERE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF              
A BEARDSTOWN TO PARIS LINE...AND HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN THE 20                 
BELOW RANGE IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AROUND GALESBURG AND LACON.             
MOS GUIDANCE WAS NO HELP IN INITIALIZING TEMPERATURES AT THE START              
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ITS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES                  
TOO WARM RIGHT OFF THE BAT. BEGAN WITH USING RUC MODEL HOURLY                   
TEMPERATURES BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD MET MOS GUIDANCE.                      
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR LEAVES LATER TODAY...FORECAST ISSUES MAINLY                 
INVOLVE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG                
WITH EXTENT OF WARMUP.                                                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS                           
MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING                
AN END TO THE BRUTAL COLD. EXISTING WIND CHILL WARNING/ADVISORY                 
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ITS NATURAL EXPIRATION AT NOON. MODELS                      
HINTING AT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS IS                  
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES                
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE EVENING...WITH RISING                         
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP. RELATIVELY MILD                        
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID              
30S...COOLEST OVER THE SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN CWA.                            
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA OVERNIGHT.                  
MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH ECMWF MODEL A BIT                     
FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE GREAT                  
LAKES REGION. EXPECTING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS                  
SYSTEM TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A FEW                    
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-74. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN                      
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...DESPITE THE                      
NORTHWEST FLOW.                                                                 
MODELS IN LESS AGREEMENT ABOUT THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT                
AND MONDAY. GFS WAS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF MODELS WITH               
THIS FEATURE...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM DUE SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN MINNESOTA          
AND COMPLETELY MISSING THE FORECAST AREA. DISCOUNTED THIS SCENARIO              
AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS...WHICH SWEEPS THE                
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF               
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL                  
CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.                                            
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                         
NO CHANGES MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS                
THE WESTERN U.S. EXPECTED TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF                
THE WEEK...WITH UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO COME MORE OUT OF WESTERN                 
CANADA INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES. BY THE END OF THE                   
WEEK...MORE OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED.                          
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
556 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 225 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                               
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND                      
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE BECOME RATHER                  
LIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT WERE STILL LOCALLY CLOSE TO 10 MPH                    
ACROSS SOME OF THE NORMALLY BREEZIER AREAS OF THE EAST CENTRAL                  
CWA. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WERE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF              
A BEARDSTOWN TO PARIS LINE...AND HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN THE 20                 
BELOW RANGE IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AROUND GALESBURG AND LACON.             
MOS GUIDANCE WAS NO HELP IN INITIALIZING TEMPERATURES AT THE START              
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ITS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES                  
TOO WARM RIGHT OFF THE BAT. BEGAN WITH USING RUC MODEL HOURLY                   
TEMPERATURES BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD MET MOS GUIDANCE.                      
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR LEAVES LATER TODAY...FORECAST ISSUES MAINLY                 
INVOLVE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG                
WITH EXTENT OF WARMUP.                                                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS                           
MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING                
AN END TO THE BRUTAL COLD. EXISTING WIND CHILL WARNING/ADVISORY                 
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ITS NATURAL EXPIRATION AT NOON. MODELS                      
HINTING AT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS IS                  
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES                
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE EVENING...WITH RISING                         
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP. RELATIVELY MILD                        
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID              
30S...COOLEST OVER THE SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN CWA.                            
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA OVERNIGHT.                  
MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH ECMWF MODEL A BIT                     
FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE GREAT                  
LAKES REGION. EXPECTING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS                  
SYSTEM TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A FEW                    
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-74. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN                      
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...DESPITE THE                      
NORTHWEST FLOW.                                                                 
MODELS IN LESS AGREEMENT ABOUT THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT                
AND MONDAY. GFS WAS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF MODELS WITH               
THIS FEATURE...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM DUE SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN MINNESOTA          
AND COMPLETELY MISSING THE FORECAST AREA. DISCOUNTED THIS SCENARIO              
AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS...WHICH SWEEPS THE                
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF               
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL                  
CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.                                            
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                         
NO CHANGES MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS                
THE WESTERN U.S. EXPECTED TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF                
THE WEEK...WITH UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO COME MORE OUT OF WESTERN                 
CANADA INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES. BY THE END OF THE                   
WEEK...MORE OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED.                          
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING                 
SOUTHERLY. AN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST                   
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND              
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE TEENS.                                       
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ049>057-061>063-                
066>068-071>073.                                                                
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-                 
040>048.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1042 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
656 PM CST                                                                      
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS               
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEASTWARD.              
WITH WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS NOW DOWN TO 10KT OR LESS WILL BEGIN                
TO TRIM SOME OF THE COUNTIES OFF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.                   
ALSO...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SLOWLY               
EASTWARD AS INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND MOVE SOUTHWARD.                 
HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH WHITE-OUT              
CONDITIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS.                 
THANKFULLY...MULTIPLE MESOLOWS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THE                  
LAKE EFFECT PLUME AND THESE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE KEPT THE              
LINE FAIRLY KINKY AND GENERALLY KEPT DURATION OF THE MOST INTENSE               
SNOW FAIRLY SHORT.                                                              
PLUME HAS SHIFTED EAST OF LAKE COUNTY AND WILL BE DOWNGRADING THE               
WARNING TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY SHORTLY. SUSPECT THAT PRIOR TO 9PM              
WILL BE ABLE TO SHAVE ANOTHER BATCH OF COUNTIES OUT OF THE WINTER               
WEATHER ADVISORY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.                                 
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1033 PM CST                                                                     
06Z TAFORS...RIDGE OF HI PRES EXTENDS FM SASK ACROSS THE                        
DAKOTAS...MID MO AND MD MS VALLEYS LATE THIS EVE. SOUTHERN EXTENT               
OF RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THU              
AFTERNOON AND EVE MAINTAINING NW SFC WIND. FAIRLY STRONG PRES                   
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THOUGH IS SFC PARTIALLY                     
DECOUPLED DUE TO VERY COLD DRY AIR...FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEAR                 
SKY. WIND EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT DIURNALLY THU MORN.                         
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SSE FM MANITOBA INTO FAR                  
WESTERN ONT WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS. DISTURBANCE TO TURN MORE                    
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT DROPS FURTHER INTO THE UPPER TROF AND WHILE                 
MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS SEEN OVR NORTHERN IL MAIN AREA OF MID                       
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GRTLKS DURING THE                  
DAY THU.                                                                        
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
1040 PM CST                                                                     
UPDATE...HAVE CANCELED GALE WARNING AS OBSERVATIONS BELOW                       
THRESHOLD AND NO SUPPORT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS SEEN IN 00Z GRB                   
RAOB...MKX- LOT- ORD- MDW VAD WINDS...ACARS...OR 00Z NAM AND RUC                
MODEL OUTPUT.                                                                   
212 PM...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS                   
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. LARGE              
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT                
THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS                     
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF GALES IS LIKELY ACROSS                 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT                      
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WINDS DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS BY              
MORNING BUT GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINTAIN 25-30KTS THRU                  
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT FINALLY WEAKENS. WINDS THEN QUICKLY TURN               
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE               
WESTERN LAKES WITH WINDS TURNING BACK NORTHERLY SATURDAY. CMS                   
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.           
     WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-            
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-                   
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL              
     NOON FRIDAY.                                                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ002 UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL MIDNIGHT              
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-                
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-                   
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878                    
     UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                                                       
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL  
     10 AM THURSDAY.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO BURNS HARBOR UNTIL     
     3 AM THURSDAY.                                                             
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL NOO
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 9 P
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
736 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GIVEN CONTINUED CRASHING TEMPERATURES...WILL NEED TO UPGRADE WIND               
CHILL ADVISORY TO WARNING AS FWA/GSH ALREADY HAVE WIND CHILLS AT                
-25F AS OF 7PM AND MORE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS FALL TO                  
BETWEEN -25 AND -35 TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES                   
MORE...GENERALLY BETWEEN -10 TO -15 WITH A FEW SITES LIKELY                     
FALLING A LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS.                                               
UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE TO CUT TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS WE/LL HAVE SOME IDEAL                
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE                    
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELP TURN TEMPS AROUND                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE MINUS TEENS SUGGEST PLENTY OF                  
ROOM TO DROP. RUC13 HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS THIS EVENING BUT                
AM A LITTLE FEARFUL THAT IN SOME SPOTS IT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM.                
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF -10 TO -15F.                
IN ADDITION...THE SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPS SHOULD PROLONG ADV LEVEL                
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WC ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z                
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL BE NEAR               
WC WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR ATTM UNDER SKC WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10KTS. EXPECT VFR TO              
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING                
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A LOW VFR DECK SHOULD MOVE IN                
AROUND DAYBREAK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHSN AS THIS MOVES IN...BUT                
EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE              
TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BY                 
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SBN. LESS                  
CONFIDENT IN THEM REACHING FWA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD SO                  
HAVE INCLUDED THE MVFR POSSIBILITY AS A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.                    
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND                  
STRENGTHEN TO 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO 18G26KTS DURING THE                
MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY                 
AND MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT                  
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 15KTS.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND                   
SN/FZDZ CHANCES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR 5 KNOTS              
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW TEMPS             
TO PLUMMET BACK TOWARDS -10F THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME WARMING                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY LL FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF                 
1040MB ARCTIC HIGH WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL                   
APPS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...HAVE NON DIURNAL TEMPS TONIGHT                
WITH VALUES HOPEFULLY WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO BY                
12Z SAT. COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SSW SFC WINDS WILL KEEP                 
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE...SO WENT WITH A WIND                   
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY.                         
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN FRINGE OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN                 
PAC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE SEWD INTO THE UPPER                   
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...AND THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY               
NIGHT. FAVOR FARTHER NORTH AND DRIER NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS OVER              
THE GFS IN TRACKING ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION INTO CENTRAL LOWER                
MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE NAM HAS PERFORMED BETTER FOR              
THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER EVENTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH 40-50KT CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW AND 2-3                 
G/KG MOISTURE SURGE OVER ARCTIC DOME DOES SUPPORT A BAND OF                     
LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW PIVOTING EAST THROUGH AT LEAST FAR NORTHERN                 
AREAS ON SATURDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN              
THE 1-3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE COLDWATER/HILLSDALE                   
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS. MAYBE A                
COATING TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AREAS WITH LITTLE IF ANY                          
ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION TO                
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS SAT AFTN/EVE AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS                       
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE PRODUCTION ZONE               
WITH LL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION. SLICK SPOTS                
ON AREA ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. OTHERWISE...               
IT WILL FEEL BALMY OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RECOVERING              
ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S. LARGE SCALE LIFT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE AND DIFF PVA AHEAD OF H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY                 
00Z SUN WITH JUST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES/PATCHY                  
FZDZ SAT EVE. CAA BEHIND SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.                       
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS 06-12Z SUN. DELTA T/S OF              
15-18 AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                 
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER...INVERSION NEAR 5KFT               
AND UNFAVORABLE 280/290 DEGREE FETCH DO NOT FAVOR ACCUMS ABOVE 2                
INCHES.                                                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
LONG TERM WILL SEE CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE            
CONUS AS WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS IT. TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST            
AS NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER JET REMAINS DOMINANT AND CONTINUES TO               
DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                     
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND THEREFORE A             
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM                 
GRIDS.                                                                          
BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL SEE CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING AND EXITING THE            
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL                  
CONTINUES BEHIND CLIPPER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INTO               
MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS AN INTERESTING SETUP AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR A            
DECENT SNOW EVENT ASSUMING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LIMITING                  
FACTOR WILL BE TRANSITORY NATURE OF BAND AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE. DUE             
TO LIMITING FACTORS AND QUESTIONS ON BAND PLACEMENT HAVE CONTINUED              
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS RATHER THAN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL. LATEST NAM             
INDICATING EVOLUTION INTO SINGLE BAND INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY              
MONDAY MORNING. NAM HAS ALSO STRUGGLED WITH RECENT LAKE EVENTS IN               
THESE PERIODS SO STILL SOME DOUBT.                                              
STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS GRIDS AND HPC FOR MIDDLE TO LATE            
PART OF LONG TERM GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. ECMWF HAS BEEN MODEL OF              
CHOICE MOST OF WINTER AND IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH MID WEEK WARM            
UP AS GFS...WHICH SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID                    
JANUARY. HAVE DOUBTS AT THIS TIME ON SUCH A PRONOUNCED WARM UP GIVEN            
STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AND DEEP SNOW PACK THAT EXISTS.                 
PREFER COOLER ECMWF. GRIDS AND HPC IN THE MIDDLE AND PREFER TO KEEP             
IT THAT WAY UNTIL CLEAR PATTERN EVOLVES.                                        
ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS                 
DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG CYCLONE BY DAY 7. AGAIN WILL STAY IN                 
MIDDLE GROUND AND SIDE WITH HPC FOR COLLABORATION GIVEN WIDE VARIETY            
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                 
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-             
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...ARNOTT                                                               
UPDATE...ARNOTT                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
658 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO CUT TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS WE/LL HAVE SOME IDEAL                
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE                    
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELP TURN TEMPS AROUND                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE MINUS TEENS SUGGEST PLENTY OF                  
ROOM TO DROP. RUC13 HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS THIS EVENING BUT                
AM A LITTLE FEARFUL THAT IN SOME SPOTS IT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM.                
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF -10 TO -15F.                
IN ADDITION...THE SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPS SHOULD PROLONG ADV LEVEL                
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WC ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z                
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL BE NEAR               
WC WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR ATTM UNDER SKC WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10KTS. EXPECT VFR TO              
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING                
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A LOW VFR DECK SHOULD MOVE IN                
AROUND DAYBREAK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHSN AS THIS MOVES IN...BUT                
EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE              
TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BY                 
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SBN. LESS                  
CONFIDENT IN THEM REACHING FWA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD SO                  
HAVE INCLUDED THE MVFR POSSIBILITY AS A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.                    
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND                  
STRENGTHEN TO 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO 18G26KTS DURING THE                
MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY                 
AND MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT                  
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 15KTS.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND                   
SN/FZDZ CHANCES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR 5 KNOTS              
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW TEMPS             
TO PLUMMET BACK TOWARDS -10F THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME WARMING                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY LL FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF                 
1040MB ARCTIC HIGH WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL                   
APPS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...HAVE NON DIURNAL TEMPS TONIGHT                
WITH VALUES HOPEFULLY WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO BY                
12Z SAT. COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SSW SFC WINDS WILL KEEP                 
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE...SO WENT WITH A WIND                   
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY.                         
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN FRINGE OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN                 
PAC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE SEWD INTO THE UPPER                   
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...AND THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY               
NIGHT. FAVOR FARTHER NORTH AND DRIER NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS OVER              
THE GFS IN TRACKING ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION INTO CENTRAL LOWER                
MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE NAM HAS PERFORMED BETTER FOR              
THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER EVENTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH 40-50KT CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW AND 2-3                 
G/KG MOISTURE SURGE OVER ARCTIC DOME DOES SUPPORT A BAND OF                     
LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW PIVOTING EAST THROUGH AT LEAST FAR NORTHERN                 
AREAS ON SATURDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN              
THE 1-3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE COLDWATER/HILLSDALE                   
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS. MAYBE A                
COATING TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AREAS WITH LITTLE IF ANY                          
ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION TO                
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS SAT AFTN/EVE AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS                       
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE PRODUCTION ZONE               
WITH LL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION. SLICK SPOTS                
ON AREA ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. OTHERWISE...               
IT WILL FEEL BALMY OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RECOVERING              
ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S. LARGE SCALE LIFT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE AND DIFF PVA AHEAD OF H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY                 
00Z SUN WITH JUST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES/PATCHY                  
FZDZ SAT EVE. CAA BEHIND SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.                       
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS 06-12Z SUN. DELTA T/S OF              
15-18 AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                 
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER...INVERSION NEAR 5KFT               
AND UNFAVORABLE 280/290 DEGREE FETCH DO NOT FAVOR ACCUMS ABOVE 2                
INCHES.                                                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
LONG TERM WILL SEE CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE            
CONUS AS WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS IT. TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST            
AS NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER JET REMAINS DOMINANT AND CONTINUES TO               
DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                     
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND THEREFORE A             
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM                 
GRIDS.                                                                          
BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL SEE CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING AND EXITING THE            
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL                  
CONTINUES BEHIND CLIPPER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INTO               
MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS AN INTERESTING SETUP AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR A            
DECENT SNOW EVENT ASSUMING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LIMITING                  
FACTOR WILL BE TRANSITORY NATURE OF BAND AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE. DUE             
TO LIMITING FACTORS AND QUESTIONS ON BAND PLACEMENT HAVE CONTINUED              
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS RATHER THAN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL. LATEST NAM             
INDICATING EVOLUTION INTO SINGLE BAND INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY              
MONDAY MORNING. NAM HAS ALSO STRUGGLED WITH RECENT LAKE EVENTS IN               
THESE PERIODS SO STILL SOME DOUBT.                                              
STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS GRIDS AND HPC FOR MIDDLE TO LATE            
PART OF LONG TERM GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. ECMWF HAS BEEN MODEL OF              
CHOICE MOST OF WINTER AND IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH MID WEEK WARM            
UP AS GFS...WHICH SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID                    
JANUARY. HAVE DOUBTS AT THIS TIME ON SUCH A PRONOUNCED WARM UP GIVEN            
STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AND DEEP SNOW PACK THAT EXISTS.                 
PREFER COOLER ECMWF. GRIDS AND HPC IN THE MIDDLE AND PREFER TO KEEP             
IT THAT WAY UNTIL CLEAR PATTERN EVOLVES.                                        
ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS                 
DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG CYCLONE BY DAY 7. AGAIN WILL STAY IN                 
MIDDLE GROUND AND SIDE WITH HPC FOR COLLABORATION GIVEN WIDE VARIETY            
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR                 
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-            
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...ARNOTT                                                               
UPDATE...ARNOTT                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
100 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MINOR TWEAKS TO KSBN TAF WRT TIMING OF INTENSE LES BAND NOW POINTED             
FM BRIDGEMAN TOWARD KSBN. LIFR VSBYS AS 30 DBZ REFLECTIVITY IMPINGES            
UPON AIRFIELD FOR NEXT TWO HOURS. MUCH LESS INTENSITY AS BAND                   
STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR AS IT REACHES                       
KFWA...THOUGH BRIEF PD OF IFR VSBYS REMAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES...WITH             
KASW EVEN DOWN AS LOW AS 1/2SM PAST HOUR. AS TEMPS CONT TO FALL SOME            
CONCERN WRT PTCHY FREEZING FOG DVLPG...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT AS LOW             
PROBABILITY AND CONT TO MONITOR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                              
INTENSE LK EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS STRUGGLED THIS EVENING DUE TO A                 
MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED MESOLOWS DISRUPTING LL FLW AND FAILURE OF BAND               
HOLDING IN ANY ONE SPOT FOR ANY SIG LENGTH OF TIME. HWVR OBSVD SNOW             
INTENSITIES POINT TO 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES AND BAND                        
REORGANIZING NORTH OF KBEH TO KMKG AND WHICH WILL BECOME THE                    
DOMINANT PLAYER THROUGH THU MORNING. OF NOTE HWVR ARE STG GRADIENT              
WINDS UPSTREAM OF INTENSE LK BAND WHICH WILL SWING EWD BEHIND THIS              
FTR OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING AND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLSN              
AND EXTREME WIND CHILLS AS TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW ZERO WEST OF LK                
CLOUD BAND. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSVD TRENDS THIS             
EVE.                                                                            
VFR CONDS AT THE TERMINALS WILL DETERIORATE AS LK BAND SHIFT                    
EWD...ESP AT KSBN W/PD OF LIFR LIKELY IN +SN. MORE QUESTIONABLE TO              
KFWA AND WHETHER OR NOT BAND WILL EXTEND THAT FAR INLAND BUT                    
CERTAINLY PSBL GIVEN UPSTREAM FLW VECTORS AND TIGHTLY FOCUSED BNDRY             
LYR CONVERGENCE.                                                                
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT                                                     
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IN...IS CONTINUING TO                 
EXIT THE REGION. SNOW IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS             
THE STRONGEST UPGLIDE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SHIFTING EAST INTO              
OH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND                
INTO THE EVENING. WILL LET THE ADV EXPIRE AT 4 PM WESTERN PORTION               
/7PM EASTERN PORTION AS THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE                
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE WORST BEING OVER. FARTHER                          
UPSTREAM...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN INTO THE               
NORTHERN CONUS...WITH A CENTER CURRENTLY INDICATED AT AN IMPRESSIVE             
1046MB. STRONG CAA COUPLED WITH BACKING LL FLOW...AND DELTA T/S                 
APPROACHING 23 C...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SNOWS...WITH            
A PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.              
IN ADDITION...VERY COLD ARCTIC...WITH APPROX -22C AT H925 AT 00Z FRI            
COUPLED WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUSLY COLD                
WIND CHILLS...WITH READINGS DOWN TO -30F AT TIMES.                              
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SFC RIDGING AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF             
THE AREA. MORE IMPORTANTLY...FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN             
INTENSE PERIOD OF LAKE SNOWS...ALLOWING SOME HIGH ACCUMS IN THE                 
NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST CONCERN BEING LAKE                  
EFFECT PROCESSES...HAVE TRIED TO UTILIZED THE NAM/RUC WHERE POSSIBLE            
MESOSCALE EFFECTS ARE MORE EASILY VIEWABLE. THE CAVEAT TO THIS                  
SITUATION IS THAT THE EXTREME INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL HIGHLY FAVOR             
THERMODYNAMICAL ORGANIZATION OF THE LAKE SNOW EVENT...AS OPPOSED TO             
SHEAR. THIS IS EVEN MORE TRUE SINCE THE FLOW IS NOW INDICATED TO BE             
WEAKER THAN PROGS JUST 2 DAYS AGO INDICATED. BOTTOM LINE...TRYING TO            
PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE VERY                         
DIFFICULT...AS ONE OR TWO MESO-LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY DISRUPT THE                 
FLOW...SHIFTING THINGS EAST OR WEST. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO NAM              
12 PROGS AS THEY HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL WRT LAKE EFFECT EVENTS THIS             
YEAR..OPTING TO BLEND IN QPF AREAL AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS AND RUC FOR             
UNCERTAINTY PURPOSES.                                                           
TONIGHT...LAKE BANDING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN                    
PORTIONS OF MI...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO GYY. LL FLOW WILL BACK                    
NORTHERLY AND ALLOW A PERIOD OF LONGER FETCH ENHANCEMENT. STRONG CAA            
WITH DELTA T/S APPROACHING 23C WILL SUPPORT EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH            
H925 OMEGA PROGGED AOA 27 MICROBARS/SEC. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM               
LEVELS PROGGED AT 12KFT WITH A LARGE PORTION OF UPWARD MOTION IN THE            
DGZ WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES AT IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 2               
POSSIBLY 3 INCHES PER HOUR. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST            
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY            
WESTERN CASS. STRONGEST INTENSITY LOOKS TO FAVOR LA PORTE AND                   
POSSIBLY ST. JOE COUNTY IN...BUT THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE                     
TRANSIENT AS IT PUSHES INTO ST JOE COUNTY IN. SOUTHWEST MI COUNTIES             
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM              
/DOWN 20 PERCENT AT H85/ COMBINED WITH FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS                
WILL TEND TO TRANSITION BANDS TO MULTIPLE SHORE PARALLEL                        
ORGANIZATION...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SNOWFALL WILL FAVOR HIGH                  
AMOUNTS. HAVE OPTED FOR AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES IN BERRIEN COUNTY WHERE            
DURATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LA                 
PORTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW LONG THE BAND WILL SETUP OVER            
THE AREA...PRECLUDES HIGH AMOUNT MENTION AT THIS TIME. LAKE SNOWS               
WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO MI BY THU AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE              
SNOWS CONTINUING OVER SOUTHWEST MI.                                             
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY LONG                
FETCH BANDS THAT DEVELOP IN REPONSE TO MOMENTUM ADJUSTMENT PER                  
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES. DEEP MIXING AND ENHANCED FLOW COULD SUPPORT              
20 TO 30 MPH WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTY WITH            
HIGHER GUSTS. ESPECIALLY GIVEN 30 KNOTS PROGGED AT H925 BEING ABLE              
TO TRANSLATE DOWN.                                                              
HAVE STARTED THE WIND CHILL ADV LATER GIVEN FORECAST                            
TEMPS/TD/WINDS...AND ALLOWED THE WARNING TO LAST INTO FRI WHERE THE             
DATABASE INDICATES APPARENT T/S IN THE 25 TO 30 BELOW RANGE. HAVE               
CONTINUED TO TREND THU HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN GIVEN MOS                            
TRENDS...TEMP/RH PROFILES ALOFT/AND MODEL 2M TEMPS. TEMPS AOA -20F              
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE CLEARING AND CALM WINDS                
WILL OVERLAP. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT MANY                     
LOCATIONS ON THU.                                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRI THROUGH WED                                                                 
STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH LARGE                  
TROUGH IN THE EAST WELL ESTABLISHED.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO            
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN              
AND PULL EAST BRINGING A SLOW MODERATING TREND TO OUR AREA.                     
GFS/GEFS/CMC/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL                 
EVOLUTION...WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES BEING ON THE HANDLING OF A             
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE                 
PERIOD IN THE DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD WITH T850                  
AROUND -20C AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW.  HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR                
SHSN OVER SOUTHERN MI AND THE NORTHERNMOST ROW OF COUNTIES IN IN.               
THIS LINES UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH H925 AND H850 WINDS VS MODEL QPF             
FIELDS. T925 WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WILL            
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THESE A LITTLE GIVEN SUCH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS.             
ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK OCCURS FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGHS                  
CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN WITH SN LIKELY ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF             
THE NEXT CLIPPER.  HAVE GONE WITH NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS                
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT MOST SITES WILL             
SEE LATE EVENING LOWS AGAIN BELOW ZERO.                                         
CLIPPER FOR SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH A              
LOW TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR OVERHEAD AND A LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST              
SUGGESTING THE MOST SNOW OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS TAPERING OFF TO THE            
SOUTH AND WEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE EVENT INTO THE              
LOWER 20S.                                                                      
FOR SUNDAY DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE LESS CLEAR AS THE GFS SHOWS                  
ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE ECMWF/CMC            
AND QUITE A FEW GEFS MEMBERS VOID OF ANY DISTURBANCES WITH COLD                 
NORTHWEST FLOW SPAWNING LAKE EFFECT SHSN.  WILL FOLLOW THIS LATTER              
CONSENSUS...WHICH WAS WELL CAPTURED IN THE PREVIOUS SET OF GRIDS AND            
RESTRICT CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS                 
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 20S.                                                     
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...THE CONTINUED COLD                 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT            
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE TOWARDS THE AREA.  LAST WAVE IN            
THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH DRY               
WEATHER BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS                 
ALOFT WILL WARM TO THE POINT WHERE ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD FINALLY             
BE OVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND               
THEN INTO THE LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.  WARMER TEMPS AT THIS RANGE               
ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD WARM PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE                 
RIDGE ARRIVAL...BUT AT THIS RANGE...HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO               
CLIMATOLOGY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ018-            
     026-027-033-034.                                                           
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 12             
     PM EST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-                      
     022>027-032>034.                                                           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ003-012.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ004-005-           
     014.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS                     
AFTERNOON      FOR INZ012>017-020-022>025-032.                                  
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY               
FOR      MIZ077>081.                                                            
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077.               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST               
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ078-079.                                                   
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ015-            
     016-024-025.                                                               
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY               
FOR      OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                    
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-           
     046.                                                                       
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...ARNOTT                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                       
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1232 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO PROLONG SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY A           
LITTLE. LATEST RUC RH FIELDS MATCH UP WELL WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER.            
RUC SHOWS THE MOISTURE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE                       
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LAPSE RATES INCREASE LATE THIS              
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME BROAD TROUGHING AT                   
H5...THIS MAY HELP KEEP AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS            
IN THE AREA. THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS AN             
INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...                 
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LOCATION WITH UP TO A HALF INCH             
OF DRY SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ONGOING FLURRIES WILL BE                 
ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH H8 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING OFF A LITTLE           
DURING THE DAY...REACHING -21 DEG C LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT              
EXPECTING MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY...AND TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A            
LITTLE IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE TEXT FORECAST            
WORDING MUCH. WIND CHILLS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM FIVE BELOW IN THE               
NORTH...WITH ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS              
HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                                 
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY THIS MORNING PERIOD AND CONTINUE           
THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS A                 
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.             
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.                                                         
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                                        
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAVE HELPED TO REINFORCE              
THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS                
MEAN THROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH                
HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. AT THE             
SFC...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA ON           
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL           
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC              
AND NORTHEASTERN US.                                                            
NW TO WNW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HOLD IN THE STRATOCU INTO THIS MORNING              
ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM DROP              
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW...SO AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MEAGER.             
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL...MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL               
ACCUMULATE AND HAVE A VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. AN ADDITIONAL             
DUSTING TO MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAWN...            
BUT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET 0.01 INCHES OF LIQUID...ESPECIALLY           
AFTER 12Z...AND GIVEN RECENT OBS AT JKL...OF VIS MOSTLY 6 SM OR                 
BETTER MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES...THOUGH               
COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RISK OF            
FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE MORNING...IF NOT MIDDAY IN THE FAR SE.              
WILL COVER THIS WILL FLURRIES AND LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER.           
OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET TO NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON IF           
NOT LOWER IN NE KY...SO DESPITE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO              
TIME BY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL RISE MINIMALLY TODAY.                       
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WITH CLEARING               
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET...THOUGH A RATHER TIGHT PRESS GRADIENT             
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO               
THE DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE CWA. MAV AND              
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...AND             
EVEN SOME READINGS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE NW. OTHER              
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...FRI SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY             
SUNNY...BUT WITH COLD AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED AS THE STRONG HIGH               
SETTLES INTO THE OH VALLEY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN ALL             
BUT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND THE SW CWA. WITH THE HIGH GRADUALLY          
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                   
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY...A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT CONTINUES TO           
APPEAR LIKELY. DEWPOINTS BY THAT POINT SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IF NOT A             
COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE           
A BIT COOLER ON FRI NIGHT THAN TONIGHT AND IF THE INCREASING HIGH               
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER REMAIN THIN...SOME OF THE COLDER               
SPOTS DROPPING BELOW ZERO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ATTM...KEPT THE                  
NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS IN THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE...BUT OVERALL CUT             
MIN T FOR FRI NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST              
IN ALL AREAS.                                                                   
SOUTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS A BIT GUSTY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE                  
APPROACHING CLIPPER WILL LEAD TO A MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS ON                 
SAT...WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE -10C. EVEN STILL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD            
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING              
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF              
UNTIL THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.                                                  
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME AND            
BY WEDNESDAY... PROGS INDICATE THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE                  
ATLANTIC COAST. ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH              
OF THE PERIOD BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD NOW WILL                    
MODERATE. SPOKES OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL            
CONTINUE TO FUEL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST             
TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.            
WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH             
THE PERIOD... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING            
AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THEREFORE... FEW CHANGES                
WERE MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD FEATURE                
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY             
AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 15/00Z              
ECMWF IS MUCH LESS MOIST COMPARED TO THE SAME RUN OF THE GFS AND IS             
GENERALLY PREFERRED OWING TO THE DRY SOURCE REGION OF THE CLIPPER               
SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR                   
NORTHEAST. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT            
NO REAL CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SO TEMPS                  
SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH.                                                   
AFTER A BRIEF LULL... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE              
REGION LATE ON MONDAY INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. 15/00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM             
AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ALL FAIRLY BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...                    
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THE                  
SOLUTIONS OFFERED AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP POPS (SNOW SHOWERS) LOW             
AND AT THIS TIME AND TAPER THEM OFF TUESDAY EVENING.                            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD THEN BRING MORE             
TRANQUIL AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE              
AS WARM AS THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW             
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH.               
SEEING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPO IFR IN BRIEF BURSTS OF               
HEAVIER SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON           
AS MOISTURE DECREASES...AN INVERSION LOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 20Z TO 21Z...WITH SKC EXPECTED            
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....ABE                                                                
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1052 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO PROLONG SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY A           
LITTLE. LATEST RUC RH FIELDS MATCH UP WELL WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER.            
RUC SHOWS THE MOISTURE LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE                       
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LAPSE RATES INCREASE LATE THIS              
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME BROAD TROUGHING AT                   
H5...THIS MAY HELP KEEP AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS            
IN THE AREA. THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW...AND THERE IS AN             
INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...                 
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED LOCATION WITH UP TO A HALF INCH             
OF DRY SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ONGOING FLURRIES WILL BE                 
ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH H8 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING OFF A LITTLE           
DURING THE DAY...REACHING -21 DEG C LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT              
EXPECTING MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY...AND TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A            
LITTLE IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE TEXT FORECAST            
WORDING MUCH. WIND CHILLS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM FIVE BELOW IN THE               
NORTH...WITH ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS              
HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                                 
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY THIS MORNING PERIOD AND CONTINUE           
THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS A                 
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.             
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.                                                         
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                                        
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAVE HELPED TO REINFORCE              
THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS                
MEAN THROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH                
HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. AT THE             
SFC...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA ON           
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL           
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC              
AND NORTHEASTERN US.                                                            
NW TO WNW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HOLD IN THE STRATOCU INTO THIS MORNING              
ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM DROP              
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW...SO AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MEAGER.             
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL...MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL               
ACCUMULATE AND HAVE A VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. AN ADDITIONAL             
DUSTING TO MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAWN...            
BUT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET 0.01 INCHES OF LIQUID...ESPECIALLY           
AFTER 12Z...AND GIVEN RECENT OBS AT JKL...OF VIS MOSTLY 6 SM OR                 
BETTER MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES...THOUGH               
COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RISK OF            
FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE MORNING...IF NOT MIDDAY IN THE FAR SE.              
WILL COVER THIS WILL FLURRIES AND LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER.           
OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET TO NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON IF           
NOT LOWER IN NE KY...SO DESPITE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO              
TIME BY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL RISE MINIMALLY TODAY.                       
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WITH CLEARING               
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET...THOUGH A RATHER TIGHT PRESS GRADIENT             
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO               
THE DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE CWA. MAV AND              
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...AND             
EVEN SOME READINGS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE NW. OTHER              
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...FRI SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY             
SUNNY...BUT WITH COLD AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED AS THE STRONG HIGH               
SETTLES INTO THE OH VALLEY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN ALL             
BUT SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND THE SW CWA. WITH THE HIGH GRADUALLY          
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                   
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY...A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT CONTINUES TO           
APPEAR LIKELY. DEWPOINTS BY THAT POINT SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO IF NOT A             
COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE           
A BIT COOLER ON FRI NIGHT THAN TONIGHT AND IF THE INCREASING HIGH               
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER REMAIN THIN...SOME OF THE COLDER               
SPOTS DROPPING BELOW ZERO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ATTM...KEPT THE                  
NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS IN THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE...BUT OVERALL CUT             
MIN T FOR FRI NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST              
IN ALL AREAS.                                                                   
SOUTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS A BIT GUSTY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE                  
APPROACHING CLIPPER WILL LEAD TO A MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS ON                 
SAT...WITH 8H TEMPS RISING ABOVE -10C. EVEN STILL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD            
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING              
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF              
UNTIL THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.                                                  
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME AND            
BY WEDNESDAY... PROGS INDICATE THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE                  
ATLANTIC COAST. ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH              
OF THE PERIOD BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD NOW WILL                    
MODERATE. SPOKES OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL            
CONTINUE TO FUEL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST             
TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.            
WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH             
THE PERIOD... THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING            
AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THEREFORE... FEW CHANGES                
WERE MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD FEATURE                
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY             
AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. 15/00Z              
ECMWF IS MUCH LESS MOIST COMPARED TO THE SAME RUN OF THE GFS AND IS             
GENERALLY PREFERRED OWING TO THE DRY SOURCE REGION OF THE CLIPPER               
SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR                   
NORTHEAST. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT            
NO REAL CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SO TEMPS                  
SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH.                                                   
AFTER A BRIEF LULL... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE              
REGION LATE ON MONDAY INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. 15/00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM             
AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ALL FAIRLY BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...                    
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THE                  
SOLUTIONS OFFERED AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP POPS (SNOW SHOWERS) LOW             
AND AT THIS TIME AND TAPER THEM OFF TUESDAY EVENING.                            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD THEN BRING MORE             
TRANQUIL AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE              
AS WARM AS THE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND             
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT         
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY...CIGS        
SHOULD RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN ALL AREAS DURING BETWEEN 13Z AND              
16Z. SKIES WILL THEN SCATTER OUT AND GO CLEAR BETWEEN 16Z AND 0Z...AS           
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST         
AT NEAR 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO           
20KT RANGE POSSIBLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....ABE                                                                
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID                
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL                    
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK               
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                                  
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT.                       
SFC WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER INLAND AREAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO                   
SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPS A SHADE COOLER THAN              
FCSTD SO HAVE OPTD TO LOWER MINS BY 2-4 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS.              
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ALL OF VA PIEDMONT ZONES TO THE WIND CHILL                 
ADV. NC ZONES LOOK TO REMAIN ABV CRITERIA (0 DEGREES) BUT WOULD                 
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SECTIONS OF NORTHAMPTON/HERTFORD COUNTIES               
COMING CLOSE.                                                                   
EXPECT A TRANSITION OF DIURNAL-BASED STRATO-CU BANDS OVER BOTH                  
LAND AND WATER TO NW-SE ORIENTED BAY/OCEAN EFFECT PLUMES DOWNWIND               
OF CHES BAY/ATLC WATER FETCH. OMEGA IS NOT THAT STRONG AT H92 PER               
THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONGER OMEGA              
FIELD PRESENT. SO HAVE SIDED WITH RUC SOLN. ANY LAND AREAS                      
EFFECTED BY ANY SMALL BANDING WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE LWR VA ERN               
SHORE (I.E. DOWNWIND FROM CHES BAY WITH THE NNW FLOW IN THE                     
CONVECTIVE BNDRY OR MIXED LAYER). BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL               
BE FROM 08-12Z FRI.                                                             
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING WILL STRONGLY OPPOSE ANY MESOSCALE                       
EFFECTS...GIVEN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE (INVERSION LEVELS                     
TOPPING OUT BTWN 4-5 KFT) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE LLVL                 
MIXED LAYER (850-700 MB MEAN RH`S FALLING TO AROUND 25-30%).                    
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG LLVL CAA WILL GENERATE EXTREME OVER-WATER                 
INSTBY (WATER-850 MB DELTA T`S APPROACHING 25C)...WITH ICE NUCLEI               
PRESENT WITHIN EVEN VERY SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE                
TO GO WITH MENTION OF FLURRIES ATTM. STILL CAN NOT OUTRULE A                    
STRONGER BAND DVLPG ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DVLP OVER LWR VA               
ERN SHORE WITH SUCH AS COLD AIRMASS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH                
FORCING/LIFT (ESP NEAR THE BORDER OF NEAR THE ACCOMACK/NORTHAMPTON              
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                              
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE FA LT FRI/FRI NGT. CNTR OF                 
STRNG SFC HI PRES SLO TO BUILD EWD FM THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRI                   
EVE...W/ CNTR ARRIVING OVR FA FOR LT FRI NGT AND SAT.                           
DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE ON FRI...RDGS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE M/U20S               
ACRS FA (SEE CLIMO SXN BLO TO SEE WHEN IT WAS THIS COLD ARND THESE              
PARTS). EVEN THOUGH AMS QUITE DRY...STILL SOME CONCERN ABT SNOW                 
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVR THE WTRS...THOUGH LLVL TRAJ MR NW THAN N (LESS          
THAN IDEAL FOR ANY PCPN INVOF ORF/NTU). HV KPT MENTION OF FLURRIES              
OVR THE WTRS.                                                                   
VRY COLD FRI NGT AS BLYR DCPLS...UNDER SKC AND W/ DWPTS AOB                     
ZERO...XPCTG WDSPRD SINGLE DIGITS (AWAY FM THE LRGR CITIES/BAY-                 
OCN). THIS AIRMASS IS IMPRESSIVELY COLD WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE                   
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER WHICH WOULD AID TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING                
FURTHER. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR READINGS BELOW ZERO WILL              
BE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES...PARTICULARY SBY. NOT XPCTG                  
ANY QUIK WRMUP ON SAT AS LLVL WAA SLO TO MATERIALIZE (HIGH                      
OVERHEAD...LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING). EVENTUALLY...WNDS SHIFT TO                 
MR SLY DRCTN...THAT IS NOT LIKELY B4 LT AFTN. HI TEMPS SAT ONLY FM              
THE M20S TO L30S.                                                               
SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (NRN STREAM TROUGH) WILL                 
PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY REGION. MEANWHILE...THE                 
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/AND SREFS TO A SIMILAR DEGREE SHOW AN APPROACHING                 
SRN STREAM JET STREAK/VORT LOBE LATE IN THE DAY...MOVING ACROSS                 
THE MID ATLC COAST LATER SUN NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW                 
THESE 2 STREAMS OUT OF PHASE...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN WARY OF THE SRN              
STREAM WAVE AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER WITH THE 12Z                 
RUN (ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF AROUND 0.1" OVER ERN VA AND NERN NC).                    
OBVIOUSLY...A MORE PHASED (AMPLIFIED) UPPER PATTERN AND SLOWER-                 
EVOLVING SFC RESPONSE/FARTHER S AND SLOWER-MOVING SFC LOW WOULD                 
CREATE MORE CONCERNS OVER OUR FCST AREA...I.E. A MORE PROLONGED                 
PERIOD OF MOIST/SRLY LLVL FLOW AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A                    
PERIOD OF BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STEADIER PRECIP. WILL HAVE TO              
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE...ALONG WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER                
LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT (SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION).                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
LOW PRES AND TRAILING TROF DEPARTS TO THE NE ON MON. PRECIP/SNOW                
CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE DAY MON AS HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE             
SW/W. NW FLOW AND INSTABILITY (CAA MOVING OVER WARMER BAY WATERS)               
WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE TROF...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BAY                 
EFFECT SNOW PLUMES TO ONCE AGAIN INITIATE OVER THE CHES BAY. THUS               
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LWR MD/VA ERN                
SHORE AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON MON.                                           
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE S ON MON NIGHT AS            
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CROSSING              
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF            
THE CLIPPER/TROF...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW               
OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND WITH THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE SOURCE (GREAT               
LAKES) BECOMING RATHER FROZEN AFTER THIS WEEK`S/WEEKEND`S `ARCTIC               
BLAST.` WILL HAVE TO BE WARY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY                   
GIVEN THE SLOWER/DEEPENING TRENDS OF THE 12Z ECMWF. OTHERWISE...                
THIS CLIPPER WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WED AS THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH                
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. HIGH PRES THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR              
WX THRU THU...WITH YET ANOTHER CLIPPER/TROF SKIRTING BY TO OUR N                
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.                                                              
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL NOT VARY MUCH IN THE EXTENDED...HIGHS                   
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO UPR              
20S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WNDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. ARCTIC                   
BNDRY PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLIER TDY...AND COLDER AIR WILL                    
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO REGION OVRNGT. WNDS WILL BE NW-N 15-20 KTS              
AND GUSTY THRU THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVRNGT AS THE CORE OF               
HIGH PRES APPROACHES. VFR CONDS CONTINUE ON FRI AND SAT. INCREASING             
CLOUDS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS ON SUN WITH CHC OF PRECIPITATION.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES             
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS OVER THE             
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AROUND              
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5-7                
FT...WITH WAVES OF 3-5 FT OVER THE BAY.                                         
IN ADDITION...A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE               
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND VA N TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.                 
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE WATER SFC WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW                   
FREEZING TONIGHT...AND WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS...SEA SPRAY             
WILL BE BLOWING WHICH WILL THEN FREEZE ON VESSELS.                              
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT             
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH AND SEAS TO              
SUBSIDE. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM/TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS               
LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...AND WINDS/SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE               
/BUILD (ALTHO NOT AS HIGH AS THE CURRENT EVENT). HIGH PRES BUILDS               
BACK IN ON MON...WITH YET ANOTHER TROF CROSSING THE WATERS BY NEXT              
TUE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (THE 16TH) INTO THE MORNING OF             
SAT (THE 17TH)...BUT SINCE THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIGHT AROUND THE            
COLDEST TIME OF YEAR...RECORD LOWS AND/OR RECORD LOW MAX                        
TEMPERATURES APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THE MAIN CLIMATE SITES                          
(RICHMOND/NORFOLK/SALISBURY). STILL...IT DOES LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST            
CONDITIONS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN A FEW YEARS:                                  
FCST HIGH FOR FRIDAY:                                                           
RICHMOND.....FRI FCST HIGH: 27 F (LAST TIME HIGH WAS COLDER THAN                
30 F OCCURRED FEB 6TH 2007)                                                     
NORFOLK......FRI FCST HIGH: 29 F (LAST TIME HIGH WAS COLDER THAN                
30 F OCCURRED JAN 28TH 2005)                                                    
SALISBURY....FRI FCST HIGH: 23 F (LAST TIME HIGH WAS COLDER THAN                
25 F OCCURRED FEB 6TH 2007).                                                    
REC LOWS SAT JAN 17TH...                                                        
RIC...  -1 (1977)                                                               
ORF...   5 (1977)                                                               
SBY...  -6 (1965)                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                      
     MDZ021>025.                                                                
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ048-              
     049-060>062-065>069-079.                                                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-         
     652-654-656-658.                                                           
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BKH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH/CCW                                                             
SHORT TERM...BKH                                                                
LONG TERM...JRL                                                                 
AVIATION...JEF                                                                  
MARINE...JRL                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
337 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST              
THIS MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM            
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESURE                  
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION               
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION                 
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
AS W/ YDA`S DSCN I`M INCLUDING THE CLIMATE SXN BLO WRITTEN BY THE               
DAYSHIFT TEAM. BUT I CONT TO DO SOME RESEARCH ON COLD WX AT THE                 
MAJOR THREE AIRPORTS. MORE "INTERESTING TO NOTES" - IN PAST 10 YRS              
DCA HAS ONLY BEEN SUB TEN DEGS ONCE - REACHING +8 ON 1/10/04. BWI               
HAS DONE IT 17 TIMES...IAD 24...W/ THE LOWEST OF +1 ON 12/7/02.                 
BUT NONE HV BEEN SUB ZERO IN PAST TEN YRS. AT DCA NO JAN RECORD                 
MIN HAS BEEN SET SINCE 1994. SO IN SPITE OF THE APRCHG COLD AIR -               
THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN IN A LONG TIME HERE...COLD DOESN`T SEEM TO              
BE AS COLD AS IT USED TO.                                                       
BUT IT STILL WL BE COLD FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AS THE WORLD TURNS               
IT`S EYES TO ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT STRETCHES OF DAYS IN DC                  
HISTORY. 04Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS A RLTVLY WEAK LOW PRES AREA CENTERED               
OVR THE NRN PART OF THE CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOWS                  
BEING RCVD IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA. RCVD A CALL FM A FROSTBURG               
SPOTTER ARND 1 AM REPORTING 2.5" HAS FALLEN SINCE THIS AFTN OF                  
XTRMLY POWDERY SNOW. HV SEEN LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS OF 20-1 DISCUSSED               
IN THE WX CHAT ROOM...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WL CONT THRU                 
THE MRNG HRS..ANOTHER INCH OR TWO PSBL IN THE WRN HIGHLANDS SO                  
WINT WX ADVSRY RMNS INTACT.                                                     
ANLYS ALSO SHOWED THE STRONGEST HIGH PRES I`VE SEEN IN AWHILE -                 
ALMOST 1046 MB OVR NRN ND. CURRENTLY -31 AT DEVILS LAKE. BRRRR.                 
WIND CHILL ADVSRY - THE 0730Z WIND CHILL PLOT SHOWS NO VALUES L.T.              
+10. WE HV IT GOING INTO EFFECT AT 09Z...WHICH DOESN`T SEEM LKLY                
TO ME. I`M GOING TO PUSH THE START BACK TO 12Z...AND HONESTLY I                 
SEE THIS AS MARGINAL AT BEST. BUT SOME -5 WIND CHILLS COULD BE                  
REACHED TDA.                                                                    
RMDR OF CWA TDA...RDR SHOWS S- ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE              
CWA. HRR RUC SHOW THIS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG HRS THEN TAPERING               
OFF. HIGH PRES WL SPEND THE DAY BUILDING INTO THE RGN WHICH WL                  
MAKE IT BRZY ALTHO NOT NEAR ADVSRY LVLS.                                        
TEMPS WL NOT DO MUCH IF ANY CLIMBING TDA. HIGHS RANGING FM TEENS                
FAR W TO LM30S ALONG THE BAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD IN TNGT. NW WINDS ARND 10 KT AFTR 00Z.                 
TEMPS COULD GO SUB ZERO IN THE HIGHLANDS...M TEENS IN LOWER SRN MD.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
IN TERMS OF AMBIENT TEMP...THU NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST                 
OF THE YEAR. THE ARCTIC INTRUSION OF THE MID ATLC WILL BE AT IT/S               
MAXIMUM EFFECT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRI MORNING. THE ERN EDGE                
OF A +1045MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC.                     
FORTUNATELY...EVEN W/ TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                 
INTO SUBZERO READINGS OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF                
VERY LIGHT/VRB. WINDS STILL MAY BE A FACTOR FOR THE EVNG AND LATE               
NIGHT HRS THO...SO WIND CHILL PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE HRS             
PRECLUDING WINDS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT. HOLDING OFF A WIND CHILL               
WATCH FOR THE WRNMOST ZONES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A WIND              
CHILL ADVISORY WEST OF THE VA BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING THE SHENANDOAH             
VLY AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS.                                  
THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLC DURING THE DAY               
FRIDAY...WEAKENING AS ANOTHER QUICK VORT LOBE SPEEDS TOWARD THE                 
REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ELONGATED HIGH OVER THE LENGTH               
OF THE EAST COAST THEN GETS SPLIT BY THE INCOMING LOW. AS THE LOW               
SLIDES THRU THE GRT LKS REGION...IT STALLS OVER WRN NY AS A BACKSIDE            
UPPER TROF DEEPENS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. HOW DEEP AND THE               
PROXIMITY OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHETHER ANY              
OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EITHER GETS DRAWN UP INTO THE MID ATLC               
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...AND/OR GETS PUSHED PAST THE CNTRL                  
APLCNS SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. GFS PAINTING A SOLUTION                   
SIMILAR TO THE EVENTS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK...W/ AN AREA OF BROAD                
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE OHIO VLY...DISSIPATING OVER                
THE MTNS.                                                                       
A WEAK AND THINLY STRETCHED BAND OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE THEN                
GETS FORCED UP THE ERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY AND ALL THIS ACTIVITY               
SLIDES OFF THE ATLC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. FOR NOW...A BROAD LOW                
CHANCE POP AREA WILL SUFFICE W/ THE UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/TIMING              
OF ANY ONE OF THESE ELEMENTS LINING UP DURING THE LATER PART OF                 
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS               
DUE NORTH ALL THE WAY INTO THE NW TERRITORIES. THE EFFECT ON THE                
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS AN UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES DOWN OVER THE              
GULF OF MEXICO. AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE UPPER VORT LOBES WILL SLIDE              
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF INTO THE MID ATLC THRU MID WEEK.            
NEITHER OF THE UPPER WAVES EXPECTED DO MUCH MORE THAN REINFORCE THE             
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SLIDE ACROSS AREAS OF SCATTERED                  
FLURRIES W/ EACH PASSAGE. THE WRN RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO               
THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                             
VFR CONDS...ISOLD SNSH PSBL AT MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS MRNG W/ SOME                 
DEGRADATION TO CIGS/VSBY. VFR CONDS TNGT.                                       
BREEZY WLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRI/SAT. A QUICK                  
MOVING UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...W/ SOME                   
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY EXPECTED.               
LITTLE MORE THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND                 
POSSIBLE FLURRIES AT TIMES THRU MID WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA IN EFFECT AS COLDER/DENSE AIR POURS INTO MID ATLC FOR TDA AND               
TNGT. DOUBTFUL TOO MANY PLEASURE MARINERS ARE OUT THERE - TPLM                  
WATER TEMP IS 37.                                                               
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPECTED TO                  
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE WEEKEND INTO THE                   
MON AFTN...FROM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HIGH PRES WILL THEN                 
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING MID WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
VERY COLD WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THIS FRIDAY /16 JAN/ INTO                   
SATURDAY MORNING /17 JAN/. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS NEAR THE                     
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST TIME OF YEAR...RECORD LOWS AND/OR RECORD               
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY IN THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON               
METROPOLITAN AREA. DESPITE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MORNING...IT STILL DOES LOOK TO BE SOME OF             
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PAST 15 YEARS. PLEASE NOTE THAT IT WAS                   
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER DURING A COLD SPELL IN MID JANUARY 1994 AT                 
BWI/DCA/IAD.                                                                    
BELOW ARE THE LATEST FORECAST MAXIMA FOR FRIDAY AND MINIMA FOR                  
SATURDAY AT BWI/DCA/IAD WITH RECENT TIMES TEMPERATURES NEARED THESE             
VALUES...AS WELL AS RECORD LOWEST MAX ON 16 JAN AND RECORD LOW ON 17            
JAN.                                                                            
BWI...FRI FCST HIGH: 20 F /HIGH OF 19 F ON JAN 10 2004 AND FEB 4                
1996 AND 20 ON FEB 5 2007...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 14 F IN 1893/                 
DCA...FRI FCST HIGH: 20 F /HIGH OF 17 F ON FEB 4 1996 AND 20 F ON               
FEB 3 1996 AND 21 F ON JAN 10 2004...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 15 F IN              
1893/                                                                           
IAD...FRI FCST HIGH: 19 F /HIGH OF 14 F ON FEB 4 1996 AND 19 F ON               
JAN 17-18 1997 AND 20 ON FEB 5 2007...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 14 IN               
1972 AND 1996/                                                                  
BWI...SAT FCST LOW: 5 F /LOW OF 1 ON JAN 19 1997 AND 4 ON FEB 6 1996            
AND 5 ON JAN 18 2003...RECORD LOW OF -7 IN 1982/                                
DCA...SAT FCST LOW: 9 F /LOW OF 8 F ON JAN 10 2004 AND 9 ON FEB 4               
1996...RECORD LOW OF -5 IN 1982/                                                
IAD...SAT FCST LOW: 3 F /LOW OF 1 F ON DEC 7 2002 AND 3 ON JAN 29               
2004...RECORD LOW OF -7 IN 1982/                                                
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ501-502.               
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-              
     502.                                                                       
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ021.                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021.              
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ054-                   
     501>504.                                                                   
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ054-              
     501>504.                                                                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS                                                           
CLIMATE...BPP/BJL                                                               
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
700 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE W AND A                
DEEP TROF OVER THE E. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF WAS DROPPING SE             
THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS WILL BE            
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION SAT. ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER LAKES              
REGION IS BEGINNING TO EASE UNDER DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF               
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE                  
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. VIS SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY AND KMQT RADAR SHOW DIMINISHING LES SHIFTING UNDER BACKING              
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. LAST OF THE LES IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TIP OF              
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS FROM PICTURED ROCKS ACROSS NRN LUCE            
COUNTY. HIGH RES POLAR ORBITER IMAGE TODAY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ICE                
FORMATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF             
DAYS. BKN ICE EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO THE MN SHORE.              
MORE ICE EXTENDS FROM THE MN/ONTARIO SHORE TO ISLE ROYALE...AND A               
LARGE AREA OF ICE HAS FORMED W OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM SHOT PT TO                
MANITOU ISLAND.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SAT AFTN)...                                          
LAST OF THE LES OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM AROUND GRAND              
MARAIS EWD WILL END THIS EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF             
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/LOW PRES.                    
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL UNDER 1 INCH. BEFORE CLOUDS                          
INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE NW...TEMPS MAY CRASH UNDER LIGHT WINDS.               
FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO                 
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS                
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS THAT AREA HAS BEST POTENTIAL             
TO FALL BLO FCST MINS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE            
TROF. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE                     
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 285K SFC            
(AROUND 700MB). WITH 6-9HRS OF LIFT...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE                
FROM 2-3INCHES BY THE TIME SNOW DIMINISHES SAT. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM               
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPS FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC               
SNOW GROWTH FROM NEAR THE SFC TO AROUND 10KFT OR SO. THUS...SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS MAY BE QUITE HIGH. WHILE AN ADVY LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM               
FOR THE FCST AREA...IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE BECOMING BETTER                   
ORGANIZED WITH MORE FOCUSED FORCING AS IT TRACKS SE. HAVE THUS OPTED            
FOR AN ADVY ACROSS THE S FROM IRON COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT FOR                
ROUGHLY 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS                
WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL SHOWS            
IMPORTANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NRN LAKE               
MICHIGAN...CONSENSUS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST               
SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT. HOWEVER...HAVE                  
CONCERNS THAT SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT/HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY                
OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA GIVEN THE DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH               
ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHARP CONVERGENCE TO SET UP FOR A TIME UNDER             
SFC TROF THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. FOR NOW...INCLUDED THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6            
INCHES ACROSS SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR             
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IF WIND FIELDS SET UP JUST RIGHT. WILL NEED TO               
MONITOR MODEL RUNS TONIGHT TO SEE IF A TREND DEVELOPS FOR MORE                  
FOCUSED SRLY CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA.                                          
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
POSTIVE PNA PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVR WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH OVR                
EASTERN NOAM CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGE/WARMER AIR OVR                  
WEST CONUS DOES EDGE INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT...THE BRIEF WARM UP IS QUICKLY                 
REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH               
DEEPENS. EXTENDED MODELS ONLY SHOWING LOOSE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL            
PATTERN AND DIFFER EVEN MORE ON DETAILS. THIS RESULTS IN BLO NORMAL             
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST.                                             
IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY CLIPPER LOW...EXPECT RESURGENCE IN LK               
EFFECT AS H85 TEMPS FALL OFF TOWARD -15C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE                    
INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PROGGED LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW                 
GROWTH REGION AS WELL. 925-850MB WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO              
15 KT SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TEND TO HANG ALONG THE SHORE OR MOVE             
JUST INLAND. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH LINED UP WITH THE                 
LK EFFECT MOIST LAYER...MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK            
TO SET UP OVR WESTERN AND NCNTRL AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FM N              
TO NNE. PINNING DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY OCCUR BECOMING MORE             
MUDDLED DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVER ON LK SUPERIOR.                             
ONGOING LK EFFECT ON MONDAY WILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE AS                
SHORTWAVE DROPS ALMOST NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS UPR LAKES. SLIGHTLY                
BACKING WINDS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SHIFT BACK MORE NRLY BY LATE DAY            
INTO THE EVENING. SHARPNESS OF WIND SHIFT MORE IN QUESTION. SINCE               
THIS WAVE IS JUST APPEARING IN GUIDANCE TODAY...DID NOT HIT IT TOO              
HARD YET. INCREASED POPS ALONG ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER THIS SFC             
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...NW LK EFFECT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.              
WINDS BACK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPR LAKES LATE NEXT            
WEEK. KEPT POPS ON WED ONLY CONFINED TO KEWEENAW IN EXPECTED SW FLOW            
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BEYOND WED NIGHT...CHOSE TO DISCOUNT 12Z GFS                 
SOLUTION AS IT COMPLETELY BROKE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND               
MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE BY KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT OVR UPR LAKES               
AND DELAYING PUSH OF COLD AIR UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY. FORECAST IS MUCH               
MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. AFTER A                
PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MORE            
LK EFFECT DEVELOPS IN N/NW FLOW AREAS INTO FRIDAY. COLD TEMPS RETURN            
WITH READINGS FALLING BACK BLO NORMAL. HOWEVER...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK              
TO FALL TO LEVELS SEEN THIS WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH SRLY FLOW               
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF -SN              
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH WILL            
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EARLY               
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.                                  
AT KSAW...DRY DOWNSLOPING W TO SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS            
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO              
THE AREA SAT WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VIS/CIGS FOR SAT MORNING. AS THE            
SNOW TAPERS OFF...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY                 
AFTERNOON TO MVFR CONDITIONS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD END OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                   
SUNRISE SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS                
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                   
     MIZ010.                                                                    
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR                    
     MIZ013-014.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                    
     MIZ011-012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-              
     264-266-267.                                                               
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ265.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE W AND A                
DEEP TROF OVER THE E. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF WAS DROPPING SE             
THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS WILL BE            
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION SAT. ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER LAKES              
REGION IS BEGINNING TO EASE UNDER DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF               
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE                  
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. VIS SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY AND KMQT RADAR SHOW DIMINISHING LES SHIFTING UNDER BACKING              
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. LAST OF THE LES IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TIP OF              
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS FROM PICTURED ROCKS ACROSS NRN LUCE            
COUNTY. HIGH RES POLAR ORBITOR IMAGE TODAY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ICE                
FORMATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF             
DAYS. BKN ICE EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO THE MN SHORE.              
MORE ICE EXTENDS FROM THE MN/ONTARIO SHORE TO ISLE ROYALE...AND A               
LARGE AREA OF ICE HAS FORMED W OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM SHOT PT TO                
MANITOU ISLAND.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SAT AFTN)...                                          
LAST OF THE LES OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM AROUND GRAND              
MARAIS EWD WILL END THIS EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF             
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/LOW PRES.                    
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL UNDER 1 INCH. BEFORE CLOUDS                          
INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE NW...TEMPS MAY CRASH UNDER LIGHT WINDS.               
FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO                 
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS                
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS THAT AREA HAS BEST POTENTIAL             
TO FALL BLO FCST MINS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE            
TROF. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE                     
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 285K SFC            
(AROUND 700MB). WITH 6-9HRS OF LIFT...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE                
FROM 2-3INCHES BY THE TIME SNOW DIMINISHES SAT. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM               
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPS FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC               
SNOW GROWTH FROM NEAR THE SFC TO AROUND 10KFT OR SO. THUS...SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS MAY BE QUITE HIGH. WHILE AN ADVY LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM               
FOR THE FCST AREA...IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE BECOMING BETTER                   
ORGANIZED WITH MORE FOCUSED FORCING AS IT TRACKS SE. HAVE THUS OPTED            
FOR AN ADVY ACROSS THE S FROM IRON COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT FOR                
ROUGHLY 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS                
WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL SHOWS            
IMPORTANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NRN LAKE               
MICHIGAN...CONSENSUS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST               
SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT. HOWEVER...HAVE                  
CONCERNS THAT SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT/HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY                
OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA GIVEN THE DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH               
ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHARP CONVERGENCE TO SET UP FOR A TIME UNDER             
SFC TROF THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. FOR NOW...INCLUDED THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6            
INCHES ACROSS SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR             
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IF WIND FIELDS SET UP JUST RIGHT. WILL NEED TO               
MONITOR MODEL RUNS TONIGHT TO SEE IF A TREND DEVELOPS FOR MORE                  
FOCUSED SRLY CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA.                                          
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
POSTIVE PNA PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVR WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH OVR                
EASTERN NOAM CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGE/WARMER AIR OVR                  
WEST CONUS DOES EDGE INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT...THE BRIEF WARM UP IS QUICKLY                 
REPLCED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH                
DEEPENS. EXTENDED MODELS ONLY SHOWING LOOSE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL            
PATTERN AND DIFFER EVEN MORE ON DETAILS. THIS RESULTS IN BLO NORMAL             
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST.                                             
IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY CLIPPER LOW...EXPECT RESURGENCE IN LK               
EFFECT AS H85 TEMPS FALL OFF TOWARD -15C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE                    
INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING               
LOW PESSURE SYSTEM. PROGGED LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW                  
GROWTH REGION AS WELL. 925-850MB WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO              
15 KT SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TEND TO HANG ALONG THE SHORE OR MOVE             
JUST INLAND. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH LINED UP WITH THE                 
LK EFFECT MOIST LAYER...MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK            
TO SET UP OVR WESTERN AND NCNTRL AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FM N              
TO NNE. PINNING DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY OCCUR BECOMING MORE             
MUDDLED DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVER ON LK SUPERIOR.                             
ONGOING LK EFFECT ON MONDAY WILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE AS                
SHORTWAVE DROPS ALMOST NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS UPR LAKES. SLIGHTLY                
BACKING WINDS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SHIFT BACK MORE NRLY BY LATE DAY            
INTO THE EVENING. SHARPNESS OF WIND SHIFT MORE IN QUESTION. SINCE               
THIS WAVE IS JUST APPEARING IN GUIDANCE TODAY...DID NOT HIT IT TOO              
HARD YET. INCREASED POPS ALONG ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER THIS SFC             
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...NW LK EFFECT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.              
WINDS BACK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPR LAKES LATE NEXT            
WEEK. KEPT POPS ON WED ONLY CONFINED TO KEWEENAW IN EXPECTED SW FLOW            
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BEYOND WED NIGHT...CHOSE TO DISCOUNT 12Z GFS                 
SOLUTION AS IT COMPLETELY BROKE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND               
MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE BY KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT OVR UPR LAKES               
AND DELAYING PUSH OF COLD AIR UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY. FORECAST IS MUCH               
MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. AFTER A                
PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MORE            
LK EFFECT DEVELOPS IN N/NW FLOW AREAS INTO FRIDAY. COLD TEMPS RETURN            
WITH READINGS FALLING BACK BLO NORMAL. HOWEVER...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK              
TO FALL TO LEVELS SEEN THIS WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES              
AND WINDS BACK TO WSW THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LES BANDS TO SHIFT                
NORTH OF KCMX. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS            
IN -SHSN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNSET. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING                 
A RETURN OF -SN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                  
BEFORE DAYBREAK.                                                                
AT KSAW...DRY DOWNSLOPING W TO SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS            
PREVAILING THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HRS. CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING               
INTO THE AREA SAT WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VIS/CIGS FOR SAT MORNING.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD END OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                   
SUNRISE SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS                
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                   
     MIZ010.                                                                    
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR                    
     MIZ013-014.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                    
     MIZ011-012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-              
     264-266-267.                                                               
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ265.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
346 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 345 AM/                                                  
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING AND RETREATING DURING THE                
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITHIN            
THE COLD AIR MASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER               
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF              
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 345 AM/...TODAY                                        
A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS CONTINUING TO KEEP                      
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION               
THIS MORNING. ALREADY WATCHING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO IMPACT              
THE REGION STARTING TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. AS                   
ANTICIPATED...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE               
SNOWBELTS IN NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND IS THE              
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN ALONG WITH THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL               
VALUES.                                                                         
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING AND               
THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS EACH SUGGEST THAT THE WIND                    
DIRECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TARGET THESE AREAS INTO THE MID TO LATE            
MORNING HOURS. THUS...CONSIDERING THE POOR CONDITIONS STILL OBSERVED            
ACROSS THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND             
THE HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES              
OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WE HAVE BEGUN TO              
SEE THE DRAINAGE FLOW PUSHING EVERYTHING FARTHER WEST. THIS TREND               
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO PUSH            
BACK TO THE EAST AS THE DRAINAGE FLOW CEASES BY LATE MORNING.                   
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND PARADISE AND               
WHITEFISH POINT. GOING TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY IN EASTERN UPPER                  
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH                
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THE LARGE SCALE SURFACE WINDS                 
WILL BACK AROUND THE WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE              
AXIS PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC                 
FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY START TO HINDER LES THIS                
AFTERNOON...DO NOT WANT TO UNDERESTIMATE THE INSTABILITY THAT                   
REMAINS AND WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.                                                    
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS STILL LOOK                     
REASONABLE. WE WILL EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO MAINLY                    
COVER THE MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURE WILL EVENTUALLY WARM                     
ENOUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES OUT OF                      
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. KAS                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 345 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND                            
FINALLY...THE BITTERLY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON THE WAY OUT AS              
WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WAVE OVER                      
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST                
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MODELS ARE              
IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF              
THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH              
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET SOME LAKE              
ENHANCEMENT EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF              
MACKINAC COUNTY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE               
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE             
FOCUS TO LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE LAKE HURON             
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF A CONCERN WITH THE                 
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME UPTICK IN                   
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES IN THESE AREAS...BUT FEEL THAT WARNING CRITERIA            
SNOWS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THUS...FOLLOWING THE DAYSHIFT                    
THOUGHTS...GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH.                                      
FORECAST QUIETS DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY AS WE WAIT THE ARRIVAL              
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT SOME RESIDUAL FLURRIES IN             
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS WE DO KEEP SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC                        
SUPPORT/MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE                   
SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS.                                      
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A              
SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA                   
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. AFTER A WEEK OF                   
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER (PERHAPS NOT AS                
COLD AS RECENTLY) AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.  KAS                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 345 AM/                                                    
WITH COLD AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...UNSTABLE                
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.                    
THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH            
TONIGHT FOR BOTH WAVES AND WINDS. KAS                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 632 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS                             
LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS                            
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF            
SITES. STILL THINKING THE GREATER EMPHASIS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW                  
SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND AT KPLN AND KTVC.                
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ015>018-023-024-           
     029-030-033>036-041-042.                                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ019-020-             
     022-025-026-028-031-032.                                                   
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ021-027.              
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008.          
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-               
     344>346.                                                                   
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR               
     LMZ342-344>346.                                                            
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
117 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR INDICATED A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES               
BANDS BUT STILL ALIGNED WITH 300-310 FLOW. WITH SLOW BACKING TREND              
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LES TO PERSIST FROM KP53 EASTWARD. GOING FCST                
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH STILL LOOK REASONABLE. OVER THE                 
WEST...VSBY WAS ALSO LOW AT TIMES WITH FINE GRAINED SNOW IN THE                 
ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED SNOWGROWTH...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS              
OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.                                            
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT BTWN LAKE INDUCED                
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN                  
A GREATER WRLY FLOW OF UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ACROSS N CNTRL UPPER               
MI. SO WITH TEMPS INTO THE -8 F TO -15 RANGE AND WINDS OF 5 TO 15               
MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW RANGE STILL               
SEEMS ON TRACK. FARTHER INLAND...FROM KIWD TO KIMT...WINDS MAY BE               
LIGHTER...5 TO 10 MPH BUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF                          
FURTHER...CLOSER TO -20F.                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN                  
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE W AND A DEEP TROF                
OVER THE E. ARCTIC AIRMASS IS WELL ENTRENCHED FROM THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED 850MB TEMPS OF -25C OR              
LWR FROM MN E TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND N TO HUDSON BAY. TYPICAL PURE              
LES PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. COLD AIR IS LEADING             
TO SMALL FLAKE SIZE THAT IS EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...              
BUT DOES NOT ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. IF DRIVING...IT CAN BE A                 
WHITEOUT AROUND OTHER VEHICLES KICKING UP THE DRY SNOW. SFC OBS                 
SUGGEST A MESOLOW LOCATED JUST W OR NW OF WHITEFISH PT...AND                    
MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF SNOW JUST N AND W OF                  
WHITEFISH PT WHERE STRONG CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. AWAY FROM THE               
LES...DRY AIRMASS HAS LED TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH THERE HAS                
BEEN SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT INLAND. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE             
FAILED TO RISE ABOVE 0F OVER MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA               
DESPITE SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/FRI)...                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS                
WILL BACK A BIT AS LARGE HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DRIFTS E.              
SO...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT N SHIFT OF THE SRN EDGE OF LES OVER               
WRN UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT...AND BACK EDGE OF LES TO THE E SHOULD              
GRADUALLY SHIFT E ACROSS ALGER COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST NW TO            
N FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT MESOLOW OVER FAR SE LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO THE SE FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING LAND                 
BREEZES OWING TO SHARP TEMP DROP OVER LAND CAUSES REDEVELOPMENT BACK            
TO THE NW OVER THE LAKE. SO...HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL            
ROUGHLY FROM THE GRAND MARAIS AREA ACROSS NRN LUCE COUNTY DUE TO                
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE. STILL...GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIRMASS IS...IT WILL            
BE DIFFICULT TO GET DENDRITES TO FORM...SO SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS WILL            
CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN USUAL FOR LES. MAY SEE LOCALIZED                      
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN PLACES THAT REMAIN UNDER                   
DOMINANT BANDS THE LONGEST. LES ADVY WILL REMAIN UP FOR ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY POOR VIS WITH THIS               
TYPE OF ARCTIC AIR LES. OTHERWISE...DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN 1-2                  
INCHES IN THE LES AREAS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH CENTER OF              
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE PASSING WELL S OF HERE...WINDS MAY DECOUPLE               
MORE THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE                     
LOWERED MINS FROM INHERITED FCST AND UNDERCUT THE LOWEST MOS                    
GUIDANCE BY 3-8 DEGREES. MINS OF -20 TO -25F SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON            
FROM WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO CRYSTAL FALLS AND KIWD. IF WINDS                   
DIMINISH MORE THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET TO -30F IN THE                  
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. BASED ON FCST WINDS/TEMPS...GOING WIND CHILL                
HEADLINES TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING APPEAR ON TRACK.                             
WAA WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI WITH A CONTINUED SLOW BACKING OF WINDS. SO             
BACK EDGE OF LES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT GRADUALLY N OVER THE WRN                
U.P. AND GRADUALLY E TO THE E OF MUNISING. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN                  
SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS E            
OF GRAND MARAIS. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN AWAY FROM LES...AND             
WITH WAA...TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO                 
EVERYWHERE.                                                                     
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTS WITH RIDGE ALONG WRN NOAM AND TROUGH              
OVR MUCH OF ERN NOAM INTO GREENLAND. EVENTUALLY...TROUGH UPSTREAM               
OVR PACIFIC EDGES EAST WHICH BUCKLES THE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM INTO THE            
CONUS. SLIGHT WIGGLE IN THE PATTERN ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY                 
BUILD OVR NRN PLAINS INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES. RESULT IS A             
NOTABLE WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF                
COLD AIR COMES SOUTH INTO THE UPR LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK. CLIPPER LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SAT.                        
OTHERWISE...LK EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW/N FLOW AREAS THROUGH NEXT            
TUE.                                                                            
FOLLOWED A TRACK TO THE SAT CLIPPER BTWN THE FARTHER WEST NAM AND               
REGIONAL CANADIAN AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS/ECMWF. A BIT LEARY OF                
GOING WITH ANY SOLUTION ON THE FAR EAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THE LAST WEEK ENDED UP DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH THAN              
GUIDANCE INDICATED. EVEN SO...A NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGS SHORTWAVE            
AND SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF UPR MI LATE FRI EVENING            
INTO SAT. LOWEST CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC              
SFC MORE OVR CNTRL WI WITH AVG MIXING RATIOS TOWARD UPR MI BORDER               
1.5-2.0 G/KG WHICH SUPPORTS 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 12 HR. THIS JIVES             
WELL WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCH. ALSO...SW/S H95-H85             
WINDS OVR NRN LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT FM 06Z SAT THROUGH               
18Z SAT (BASICALLY DURING THE MAXIMUM SYNOPTIC SUPPORT) WITH                    
SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE THE SNOW. DEEP                
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE (TO 200 MB THICK) ON THE NRN LK MI                   
SOUNDING FM BOTH GFS/NAM WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW-WATER RATIOS. MAIN            
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW IS STEADILY VEERING LOW              
LEVEL WINDS FM SW TO SE. NOTABLE SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT IN LOWEST                
LEVELS.                                                                         
MADE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS IN THE FRI NIGHT AND               
SAT TIME FRAME. ADVY LEVEL SNOWS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY            
CLOSER TO LK MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE            
LK EFFECT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM. SFC TROUGH POKING UP FM                    
DEPARTING SFC LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE EVEN AS GRADIENT WINDS LIGHTEN. MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL              
LIKELY DOMINATE WHERE BEST LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE             
DEEPER SNOW GROWTH LAYER HANGING ON INTO SUN. SO...WHERE THE SNOW               
OCCURS SNOW RATIOS STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE RESULTING IN POTENTIAL                 
LOCALIZED...BUT MODERATE ACCUMS. MORE TRADITIONAL NW FLOW LAKE                  
EFFECT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SUN AS SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.                  
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DECREASING MOISTURE IN THE LK EFFECT LAYER              
DIMINISHES THE SNOW.                                                            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF             
UPR LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SYNOPTIC SNOW CHANCES SEEM TO BE                  
MINIMAL. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH TUE...BUT BEST SNOW CHANCES              
ARE IN THE LK EFFECT SNOW AREAS OF THE NRN CWA.                                 
FINALLY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A MORE                
NOTABLE WARMUP FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN H85               
TEMP PATTERN ALSO SHOWN BY GFS ENS AND NAEFS. MIXING TO H85 WITH                
LACK OF STRONG WINDS IS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT STILL MIXING TO H9 TEMPS            
EXPECTED YIELDS LWR 30S WHICH WAS CLOSE TO GOING HPC GUIDANCE. COULD            
EVEN SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. AS             
ALWAYS...COULD BE SOME LGT PCPN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGS              
LOOKED QUITE DRY THOUGH AS SOURCE AIRMASS IS OFF THE NRN ROCKIES AND            
NRN PLAINS. KEPT THE POPS OUT AS A RESULT. GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE             
INSISTENT THAT COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN LATE NEXT THU INTO FRI. H85              
TEMPS HEAD BACK TOWARD -25C BY 12Z FRIDAY. SO...IT APPEARS THAT THE             
WARM UP NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE BRIEF.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...WITH NW FLOW OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING THROUGH               
FRI MORNING...LES WILL CONTINUE. PERSISTENCE FCST APPEARS THE WAY TO            
GO AS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL OCCUR THRU FRI MORNING.             
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX. AS A RIDGE BUILDS                
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WINDS BACK TO WSW FRI                        
AFTERNOON...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF KCMX             
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING. AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING              
COMPONENT WITH WNW WIND WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING                
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THERE WILL BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL LAKE               
SUPERIOR TONIGHT IN TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY MESOLOW NEAR                     
WHITEFISH PT. OTHERWISE...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING               
THIS FCST PERIOD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT/FRI                
UNDER ARCTIC AIRMASS/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-             
     003-006-007-012>014-085.                                                   
  WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-             
     004-005-009>011-084.                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR                        
     LSZ263>267.                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR INDICATED A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES               
BANDS BUT STILL ALIGNED WITH 300-310 FLOW. WITH SLOW BACKING TREND              
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LES TO PERSIST FROM KP53 EASTWARD. GOING FCST                
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH STILL LOOK REASONABLE. OVER THE                 
WEST...VSBY WAS ALSO LOW AT TIMES WITH FINE GRAINED SNOW IN THE                 
ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED SNOWGROWTH...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS              
OF ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED.                                            
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT BTWN LAKE INDUCED                
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN                  
A GREATER WRLY FLOW OF UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ACROSS N CNTRL UPPER               
MI. SO WITH TEMPS INTO THE -8 F TO -15 RANGE AND WINDS OF 5 TO 15               
MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW RANGE STILL               
SEEMS ON TRACK. FARTHER INLAND...FROM KIWD TO KIMT...WINDS MAY BE               
LIGHTER...5 TO 10 MPH BUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF                          
FURTHER...CLOSER TO -20F.                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN                  
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE W AND A DEEP TROF                
OVER THE E. ARCTIC AIRMASS IS WELL ENTRENCHED FROM THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED 850MB TEMPS OF -25C OR              
LWR FROM MN E TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND N TO HUDSON BAY. TYPICAL PURE              
LES PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. COLD AIR IS LEADING             
TO SMALL FLAKE SIZE THAT IS EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...              
BUT DOES NOT ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. IF DRIVING...IT CAN BE A                 
WHITEOUT AROUND OTHER VEHICLES KICKING UP THE DRY SNOW. SFC OBS                 
SUGGEST A MESOLOW LOCATED JUST W OR NW OF WHITEFISH PT...AND                    
MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF SNOW JUST N AND W OF                  
WHITEFISH PT WHERE STRONG CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. AWAY FROM THE               
LES...DRY AIRMASS HAS LED TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH THERE HAS                
BEEN SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT INLAND. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE             
FAILED TO RISE ABOVE 0F OVER MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA               
DESPITE SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/FRI)...                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS                
WILL BACK A BIT AS LARGE HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DRIFTS E.              
SO...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT N SHIFT OF THE SRN EDGE OF LES OVER               
WRN UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT...AND BACK EDGE OF LES TO THE E SHOULD              
GRADUALLY SHIFT E ACROSS ALGER COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST NW TO            
N FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT MESOLOW OVER FAR SE LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO THE SE FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING LAND                 
BREEZES OWING TO SHARP TEMP DROP OVER LAND CAUSES REDEVELOPMENT BACK            
TO THE NW OVER THE LAKE. SO...HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL            
ROUGHLY FROM THE GRAND MARAIS AREA ACROSS NRN LUCE COUNTY DUE TO                
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE. STILL...GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIRMASS IS...IT WILL            
BE DIFFICULT TO GET DENDRITES TO FORM...SO SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS WILL            
CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN USUAL FOR LES. MAY SEE LOCALIZED                      
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN PLACES THAT REMAIN UNDER                   
DOMINANT BANDS THE LONGEST. LES ADVY WILL REMAIN UP FOR ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY POOR VIS WITH THIS               
TYPE OF ARCTIC AIR LES. OTHERWISE...DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN 1-2                  
INCHES IN THE LES AREAS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH CENTER OF              
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE PASSING WELL S OF HERE...WINDS MAY DECOUPLE               
MORE THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE                     
LOWERED MINS FROM INHERITED FCST AND UNDERCUT THE LOWEST MOS                    
GUIDANCE BY 3-8 DEGREES. MINS OF -20 TO -25F SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON            
FROM WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO CRYSTAL FALLS AND KIWD. IF WINDS                   
DIMINISH MORE THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET TO -30F IN THE                  
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. BASED ON FCST WINDS/TEMPS...GOING WIND CHILL                
HEADLINES TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING APPEAR ON TRACK.                             
WAA WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI WITH A CONTINUED SLOW BACKING OF WINDS. SO             
BACK EDGE OF LES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT GRADUALLY N OVER THE WRN                
U.P. AND GRADUALLY E TO THE E OF MUNISING. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN                  
SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS E            
OF GRAND MARAIS. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN AWAY FROM LES...AND             
WITH WAA...TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO                 
EVERYWHERE.                                                                     
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTS WITH RIDGE ALONG WRN NOAM AND TROUGH              
OVR MUCH OF ERN NOAM INTO GREENLAND. EVENTUALLY...TROUGH UPSTREAM               
OVR PACIFIC EDGES EAST WHICH BUCKLES THE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM INTO THE            
CONUS. SLIGHT WIGGLE IN THE PATTERN ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY                 
BUILD OVR NRN PLAINS INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES. RESULT IS A             
NOTABLE WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF                
COLD AIR COMES SOUTH INTO THE UPR LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK. CLIPPER LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SAT.                        
OTHERWISE...LK EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW/N FLOW AREAS THROUGH NEXT            
TUE.                                                                            
FOLLOWED A TRACK TO THE SAT CLIPPER BTWN THE FARTHER WEST NAM AND               
REGIONAL CANADIAN AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS/ECMWF. A BIT LEARY OF                
GOING WITH ANY SOLUTION ON THE FAR EAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THE LAST WEEK ENDED UP DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH THAN              
GUIDANCE INDICATED. EVEN SO...A NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGS SHORTWAVE            
AND SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF UPR MI LATE FRI EVENING            
INTO SAT. LOWEST CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC              
SFC MORE OVR CNTRL WI WITH AVG MIXING RATIOS TOWARD UPR MI BORDER               
1.5-2.0 G/KG WHICH SUPPORTS 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 12 HR. THIS JIVES             
WELL WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCH. ALSO...SW/S H95-H85             
WINDS OVR NRN LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT FM 06Z SAT THROUGH               
18Z SAT (BASICALLY DURING THE MAXIMUM SYNOPTIC SUPPORT) WITH                    
SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE THE SNOW. DEEP                
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE (TO 200 MB THICK) ON THE NRN LK MI                   
SOUNDING FM BOTH GFS/NAM WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW-WATER RATIOS. MAIN            
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW IS STEADILY VEERING LOW              
LEVEL WINDS FM SW TO SE. NOTABLE SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT IN LOWEST                
LEVELS.                                                                         
MADE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS IN THE FRI NIGHT AND               
SAT TIME FRAME. ADVY LEVEL SNOWS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY            
CLOSER TO LK MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE            
LK EFFECT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM. SFC TROUGH POKING UP FM                    
DEPARTING SFC LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE EVEN AS GRADIENT WINDS LIGHTEN. MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL              
LIKELY DOMINATE WHERE BEST LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE             
DEEPER SNOW GROWTH LAYER HANGING ON INTO SUN. SO...WHERE THE SNOW               
OCCURS SNOW RATIOS STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE RESULTING IN POTENTIAL                 
LOCALIZED...BUT MODERATE ACCUMS. MORE TRADITIONAL NW FLOW LAKE                  
EFFECT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SUN AS SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.                  
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DECREASING MOISTURE IN THE LK EFFECT LAYER              
DIMINISHES THE SNOW.                                                            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF             
UPR LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SYNOPTIC SNOW CHANCES SEEM TO BE                  
MINIMAL. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH TUE...BUT BEST SNOW CHANCES              
ARE IN THE LK EFFECT SNOW AREAS OF THE NRN CWA.                                 
FINALLY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A MORE                
NOTABLE WARMUP FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN H85               
TEMP PATTERN ALSO SHOWN BY GFS ENS AND NAEFS. MIXING TO H85 WITH                
LACK OF STRONG WINDS IS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT STILL MIXING TO H9 TEMPS            
EXPECTED YIELDS LWR 30S WHICH WAS CLOSE TO GOING HPC GUIDANCE. COULD            
EVEN SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. AS             
ALWAYS...COULD BE SOME LGT PCPN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGS              
LOOKED QUITE DRY THOUGH AS SOURCE AIRMASS IS OFF THE NRN ROCKIES AND            
NRN PLAINS. KEPT THE POPS OUT AS A RESULT. GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE             
INSISTENT THAT COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN LATE NEXT THU INTO FRI. H85              
TEMPS HEAD BACK TOWARD -25C BY 12Z FRIDAY. SO...IT APPEARS THAT THE             
WARM UP NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE BRIEF.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...WITH NW FLOW OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING DURING                
THIS FCST PERIOD...LES WILL CONTINUE. PERSISTENCE FCST APPEARS                  
THE WAY TO GO AS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL OCCUR THRU               
FRI MORNING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX.                     
AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WINDS BACK TO              
WSW FRI AFTERNOON...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS WILL SHIFT NORTH             
OF KCMX. AT KSAW...DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WITH WNW WIND WILL RESULT              
IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THERE WILL BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL LAKE               
SUPERIOR TONIGHT IN TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY MESOLOW NEAR                     
WHITEFISH PT. OTHERWISE...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING               
THIS FCST PERIOD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT/FRI                
UNDER ARCTIC AIRMASS/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-             
     003-006-007-012>014-085.                                                   
  WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-             
     004-005-009>011-084.                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR                        
     LSZ263>267.                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
655 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/                                                  
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING AND RETREATING DURING THE               
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITHIN            
THE COLD AIR MASS. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM             
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH            
MAY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF                
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND.                                                 
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/...TONIGHT                                      
2 CONCERNS TONIGHT. FIRST THE WIND CHILLS. WITH THE TEMPERATURES                
PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN,                
AND WITH THE WINDS GETTING TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE SOME                
LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE IN N LOWER AND                    
COLDER THAN -25F IN E UPPER. OTHERWISE, THE BIG CONCERN IS THE                  
PERPETUAL LES NW BANDS THAT ARE IN THE REGION NOW. THERE HAVE BEEN              
SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE OF A FEW BANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT                  
HAVE BROUGHT SOME INCH AN HOUR RATES, MAINLY IN ANTRIM AND                      
KALKASKA COUNTIES. WITH THAT IN MIND THE GFS, NAM, AND RUC ALL                  
AGREE THAT THE NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN NW LOWER. SO              
WOULD EXPECT THAT THE SAME TREND OF CONVERGING BANDS WILL CONTINUE.             
IN E UPPER THE BANDS MOVED TO THE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE DAY, NOT                 
REACHING THE WESTERN END OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR              
TWO. THIS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH ABOUT 09Z THEN THE COLD AIR DAM                  
WILL BURST IN CANADA AND THE WINDS WILL TURN NE AND PUSH THE SNOW               
OUT OF THE EAST END OF THE CHIPPEWA COUNTY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND                             
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE COLD DAY ALTHOUGH CORE OF COLDEST            
AIR BEGINS TO MODIFY AND SLIDE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                    
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THINS AS WE            
GO THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER. STILL PLENTY OF OVER WATER INSTABILITY                 
HOWEVER WITH DELTA T/S RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. AND WITH             
THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON A              
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW...FOCUSED PRIMARILY IN AREAS ALONG AND                 
NORTH OF M-32 IN NW LOWER MICHIGAN...ACROSS THE BROADEST PORTION OF             
THE LAKE. WANING MOISTURE AND LOWERING INVERSIONS SHOULD KEEP                   
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK AND HAVE UP TO A FEW INCHES FOR THE FAVORED              
AREAS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACKING SW AHEAD OF SATURDAYS SYSTEM            
WILL PUSH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT INTO THE STRAITS AREA WHILE SOME                
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA            
BY MORNING.                                                                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF (AND NOW THE NAM) HAVE COME INTO            
SOME CONSENSUS IN REGARD TO DROPPING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE            
MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CROSSING THE LOWER                 
PENINSULA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS SYSTEM                
STRONGER BUT WITH A TRACK STILL PRETTY MUCH CUTTING ACROSS FAR SRN              
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL             
TO PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A COMBINATION OF              
WARM ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION SNOWFALL...POSSIBLE TROWAL STRUCTURE             
SLIDING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT                    
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE HURON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS            
THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE             
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES AND OVER PORTIONS OF NE LOWER/               
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT) AND MAY ULTIMATELY             
REQUIRE SOME COMBINATION OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. BUT...GIVEN                
THAT THIS IS PRIMARILY A 4TH-5TH PERIOD EVENT WITH STILL SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY               
WATCH HEADLINES BUT HIT WORDING HARDER IN THE HWOAPX.                           
EXTENDED PERIODS...HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN                 
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHARP                  
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SHARP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST                  
CONTINUING TO HANG ON. EVEN SO...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A                
FAIR AMOUNT OF TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH                 
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND H8 TEMPS "WARMING" INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.              
THUS...STILL ANTICIPATE HIGHS REBOUNDING THROUGH THE 20S FOR THE                
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...MAY BE YET            
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND SFC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION                
DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF                  
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AND RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                         
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SHARP            
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BREAKING DOWN TO A FAIR DEGREE            
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE LESS                  
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS IDEA MAINTAINING SOME RIDGING ALONG THE WEST               
COAST AND OF COURSE TROUGHING IN THE EAST (HUGE SURPRISE THERE).                
NONETHELESS STILL LOOKING TO CATCH A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM THE WINTER              
WEATHER AS SHARP SFC RIDGE AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A THERMAL RIDGE                
NOSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THUS BEST DAY OVER THE              
NEXT SEVEN DAY STRETCH LOOKING TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SNOW                  
CHANCES RETURN AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT                       
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THEN...BREAK IN THE WINTRY               
WEATHER MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BREAKS OFF                  
ANOTHER PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT SLIDES DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT            
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                           
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 350 PM/                                                    
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP OVER THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE                      
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT. THIS WILL PROMPT KEEPING THE SCA UP                 
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 651 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS                             
LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY                          
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL                
TAF SITES. STILL THINKING THE GREATER EMPHASIS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW              
SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND A KTVC.                                                   
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-          
     042.                                                                       
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008-019-            
     020-022-025-026-028-031-032.                                               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ021-027.             
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-               
     344>346.                                                                   
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ346>349.                 
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN                  
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE W AND A DEEP TROF                
OVER THE E. ARCTIC AIRMASS IS WELL ENTRENCHED FROM THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD. 12Z RAOBS INDICATED 850MB TEMPS OF -25C OR              
LWR FROM MN E TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND N TO HUDSON BAY. TYPICAL PURE              
LES PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. COLD AIR IS LEADING             
TO SMALL FLAKE SIZE THAT IS EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...              
BUT DOES NOT ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. IF DRIVING...IT CAN BE A                 
WHITEOUT AROUND OTHER VEHICLES KICKING UP THE DRY SNOW. SFC OBS                 
SUGGEST A MESOLOW LOCATED JUST W OR NW OF WHITEFISH PT...AND                    
MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF SNOW JUST N AND W OF                  
WHITEFISH PT WHERE STRONG CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. AWAY FROM THE               
LES...DRY AIRMASS HAS LED TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH THERE HAS                
BEEN SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT INLAND. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE             
FAILED TO RISE ABOVE 0F OVER MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA               
DESPITE SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/FRI)...                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS                
WILL BACK A BIT AS LARGE HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DRIFTS E.              
SO...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT N SHIFT OF THE SRN EDGE OF LES OVER               
WRN UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT...AND BACK EDGE OF LES TO THE E SHOULD              
GRADUALLY SHIFT E ACROSS ALGER COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST NW TO            
N FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT MESOLOW OVER FAR SE LAKE                 
SUPERIOR TO THE SE FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING LAND                 
BREEZES OWING TO SHARP TEMP DROP OVER LAND CAUSES REDEVELOPMENT BACK            
TO THE NW OVER THE LAKE. SO...HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL            
ROUGHLY FROM THE GRAND MARAIS AREA ACROSS NRN LUCE COUNTY DUE TO                
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE. STILL...GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIRMASS IS...IT WILL            
BE DIFFICULT TO GET DENDRITES TO FORM...SO SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS WILL            
CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN USUAL FOR LES. MAY SEE LOCALIZED                      
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN PLACES THAT REMAIN UNDER                   
DOMINANT BANDS THE LONGEST. LES ADVY WILL REMAIN UP FOR ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY POOR VIS WITH THIS               
TYPE OF ARCTIC AIR LES. OTHERWISE...DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN 1-2                  
INCHES IN THE LES AREAS TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH CENTER OF              
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE PASSING WELL S OF HERE...WINDS MAY DECOUPLE               
MORE THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE                     
LOWERED MINS FROM INHERITED FCST AND UNDERCUT THE LOWEST MOS                    
GUIDANCE BY 3-8 DEGREES. MINS OF -20 TO -25F SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON            
FROM WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO CRYSTAL FALLS AND KIWD. IF WINDS                   
DIMINISH MORE THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY PLUMMET TO -30F IN THE                  
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. BASED ON FCST WINDS/TEMPS...GOING WIND CHILL                
HEADLINES TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING APPEAR ON TRACK.                             
WAA WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI WITH A CONTINUED SLOW BACKING OF WINDS. SO             
BACK EDGE OF LES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT GRADUALLY N OVER THE WRN                
U.P. AND GRADUALLY E TO THE E OF MUNISING. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN                  
SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS E            
OF GRAND MARAIS. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN AWAY FROM LES...AND             
WITH WAA...TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO                 
EVERYWHERE.                                                                     
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...                              
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTS WITH RIDGE ALONG WRN NOAM AND TROUGH              
OVR MUCH OF ERN NOAM INTO GREENLAND. EVENTUALLY...TROUGH UPSTREAM               
OVR PACIFIC EDGES EAST WHICH BUCKLES THE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM INTO THE            
CONUS. SLIGHT WIGGLE IN THE PATTERN ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY                 
BUILD OVR NRN PLAINS INTO WRN PERIFERY OF GREAT LAKES. RESULT IS A              
NOTABLE WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF                
COLD AIR COMES SOUTH INTO THE UPR LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK. CLIPPER LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW ON SAT.                        
OTHERWISE...LK EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW/N FLOW AREAS THROUGH NEXT            
TUE.                                                                            
FOLLOWED A TRACK TO THE SAT CLIPPER BTWN THE FARTHER WEST NAM AND               
REGIONAL CANADIAN AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS/ECMWF. A BIT LEARY OF                
GOING WITH ANY SOLUTION ON THE FAR EAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THE LAST WEEK ENDED UP DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH THAN              
GUIDANCE INDICATED. EVEN SO...A NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGS SHORTWAVE            
AND SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF UPR MI LATE FRI EVENING            
INTO SAT. LOWEST CONDENSTAION PRES DEFICITS ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC              
SFC MORE OVR CNTRL WI WITH AVG MIXING RATIOS TOWARD UPR MI BORDER               
1.5-2.0 G/KG WHICH SUPPORTS 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 12 HR. THIS JIVES             
WELL WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCH. ALSO...SW/S H95-H85             
WINDS OVR NRN LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT FM 06Z SAT THROUGH               
18Z SAT (BASICALLY DURING THE MAXIMUM SYNOPTIC SUPPORT) WITH                    
SUFFICIENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE THE SNOW. DEEP                
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE (TO 200 MB THICK) ON THE NRN LK MI                   
SOUNDING FM BOTH GFS/NAM WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW-WATER RATIOS. MAIN            
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW IS STEADILY VEERING LOW              
LEVEL WINDS FM SW TO SE. NOTABLE SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT IN LOWEST                
LEVELS.                                                                         
MADE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS IN THE FRI NIGHT AND               
SAT TIME FRAME. ADVY LEVEL SNOWS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY            
CLOSER TO LK MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE            
LK EFFECT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM. SFC TROUGH POKING UP FM                    
DEPARTING SFC LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE EVEN AS GRADIENT WINDS LIGHTEN. MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL              
LIKELY DOMINANTE WHERE BEST LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE            
DEEPER SNOW GROWTH LAYER HANGING ON INTO SUN. SO...WHERE THE SNOW               
OCCURS SNOW RATIOS STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE RESULTING IN POTENTIAL                 
LOCALIZED...BUT MODERATE ACCUMS. MORE TRADITIONAL NW FLOW LAKE                  
EFFECT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SUN AS SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.                  
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DECREASING MOISTURE IN THE LK EFFECT LAYER              
DIMINISHES THE SNOW.                                                            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW INDICATE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF             
UPR LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SYNOPTIC SNOW CHANCES SEEM TO BE                  
MINIMAL. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH TUE...BUT BEST SNOW CHANCES              
ARE IN THE LK EFFECT SNOW AREAS OF THE NRN CWA.                                 
FINALLY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A MORE                
NOTABLE WARMUP FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE AN H85               
TEMP PATTERN ALSO SHOWN BY GFS ENS AND NAEFS. MIXING TO H85 WITH                
LACK OF STRONG WINDS IS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT STILL MIXING TO H9 TEMPS            
EXPECTED YIELDS LWR 30S WHICH WAS CLOSE TO GOING HPC GUIDANCE. COULD            
EVEN SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF ENOUGH SUSHINE IS REALIZED. AS              
ALWAYS...COULD BE SOME LGT PCPN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGS              
LOOKED QUITE DRY THOUGH AS SOURCE AIRMASS IS OFF THE NRN ROCKIES AND            
NRN PLAINS. KEPT THE POPS OUT AS A RESULT. GFS AND LATEST ECMWF ARE             
INSISTENT THAT COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN LATE NEXT THU INTO FRI. H85              
TEMPS HEAD BACK TOWARD -25C BY 12Z FRIDAY. SO...IT APPEARS THAT THE             
WARM UP NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE BRIEF.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...WITH NW FLOW OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING DURING                
THIS FCST PERIOD...LES/SOME BLSN WILL CONTINUE. PERSISTENCE FCST                
APPEARS THE WAY TO GO AS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL OCCUR            
THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX. AT             
KSAW...DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WITH WNW WIND WILL RESULT IN VFR                   
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THERE WILL BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL LAKE               
SUPERIOR TONIGHT IN TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY MESOLOW NEAR                     
WHITEFISH PT. OTHERWISE...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING               
THIS FCST PERIOD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT/FRI                
UNDER ARCTIC AIRMASS/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-             
     003-006-007-012>014-085.                                                   
  WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ002-             
     004-005-009>011-084.                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR                        
     LSZ263>267.                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY                 
     FOR LSZ162.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ROLFSON                                                              
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
616 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
NEXT LOW TO EFFECT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND               
IS QUICKLY DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...SOUTHERLY             
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION HAVE OVERSPREAD MN AND WI. AS A RESULT                 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CAN BE FOUND WITH SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES.                 
CIGS RANGE ANY WHERE FROM 15K FT NEAR KAXN TO OVER 5K FT IN PARTS               
OF SRN MN...ALTHOUGH MOST TAF SITES HAVE CIGS AROUND 3K FT. EXPECT              
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD                 
FOR ALL SITES AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED                   
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                                                      
WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WI TAFS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS               
THE LOW TRACKS FROM NE ND TO NEAR KEAU BY 15Z SATURDAY. FEEL KEAU WILL          
HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AS HEAVIER SNOW MOVES BY.              
FOR NOW WILL BRING KEAU`S VSBY DOWN TO 2SM AND CIGS TO 1K FT...BUT              
THEY MAY END UP WORSE FOR A TIME...WILL SEE IF WE CAN GET A BETTER              
HANDLE ON WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY MOVE THROUGH THERE BEFORE GOING             
ANY LOWER.                                                                      
AFTER THAT...LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL PULL              
A COLD FROM THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL TURN WINDS FROM THE SOUTH                
TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z AS WE GET BACK INTO A WEAK COLD ADVECTION               
REGIME. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS                   
TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKELY...SO HAVE ADDED GUSTS EVERYWHERE                
FOR AFTER FROPA. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH                        
SPEEDS...GIVEN 30 KT PLUS WINDS PROGGED TO BE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY               
LAYER.                                                                          
FINALLY...HAVE REINTRODUCED FLURRIES INTO THE END OF THE KMSP                   
TAF...AS CYCLONIC FLOW...SOME FRONTOGENESIS...AND A WEAK                        
SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AREA              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009/                                             
THE WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN WITH A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING FROM IA              
INTO CENTRAL MN. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC                     
TONIGHT. MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...AND FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS BOUNCE AROUND A BIT WITH SATURATION AROUND -10C. THERE                
ARE A FEW HOURS HERE AND THERE WHERE FREEZING MIGHT BE THE PRECIP               
TYPE..DURING THE EVENING AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIG SHORT                  
WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RUC AND NAM                
BRING IN WELL DEFINED OMEGA IN THE -15 C PLANE AND INCREASING                   
THETA E ADVECTION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE                 
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MICH OF THE FORCING COMES                   
TOGETHER OVER EAST EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL KEEP THE                
HIGHER POPS IN WI BUT INCREASE BACK INTO MN A BIT. UP TO 3 INCHES               
OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE              
THE RISING TEMPE TREND OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO DO SOME LAST                   
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS.                                                             
THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL STRONG AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY           
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET IN A NORTH TO SOUTH                      
ORIENTATION TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT               
BAY UNTIL TUESDAY. A FEW MINOR RIPPLES MOVING SSE MAY GENERATE                  
A FEW FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WARMEST DAY STILL                
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COULD EASILY SEE                  
SOME MID 30S. GFS AND ECMWF THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING                  
ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION BY FRIDAY..ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS THE              
CURRENT AIRMASS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN WITH A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING FROM IA              
INTO CENTRAL MN. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC                     
TONIGHT. MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...AND FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS BOUNCE AROUND A BIT WITH SATURATION AROUND -10C. THERE                
ARE A FEW HOURS HERE AND THERE WHERE FREEZING MIGHT BE THE PRECIP               
TYPE..DURING THE EVENING AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIG SHORT                  
WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RUC AND NAM                
BRING IN WELL DEFINED OMEGA IN THE -15 C PLANE AND INCREASING                   
THETA E ADVECTION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE                 
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MICH OF THE FORCING COMES                   
TOGETHER OVER EAST EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL KEEP THE                
HIGHER POPS IN WI BUT INCREASE BACK INTO MN A BIT. UP TO 3 INCHES               
OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE              
THE RISING TEMPE TREND OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO DO SOME LAST                   
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS.                                                             
THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL STRONG AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY           
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET IN A NORTH TO SOUTH                      
ORIENTATION TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT               
BAY UNTIL TUESDAY. A FEW MINOR RIPPLES MOVING SSE MAY GENERATE                  
A FEW FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WARMEST DAY STILL                
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COULD EASILY SEE                  
SOME MID 30S. GFS AND ECMWF THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING                  
ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION BY FRIDAY..ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS THE              
CURRENT AIRMASS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
MVFR CEILINGS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF S/SV MOVING THROUGH              
IA/MO REGION THIS MORNING.  LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE LEFT IN ITS WAKE                 
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN HELPING CLOUDS ALONG.  APPEARS MODELS HAVE                  
PICKED UP ON THIS MORE RAPID LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT SO WILL MOVE                
ACROSS MN PORTION OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME               
-SHSN TOO...BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED. WILL WORK CLOUDS INTO WC             
WI REGION AFTER 22Z.  NEXT S/WV CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION                 
DURING THE EVENING.  WILL MENTION -SN DEVELOPING NORTHERN AREAS BY              
05Z...SPREADING IFR CEILINGS SOUTH ACROSS AREA.  SOME THREAT OF                 
-FZDZ PER DRIER MID LEVELS INITIALLY...BUT WILL BE RATHER SCT NOT               
WIDEPSREAD.  SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH GENERAL                
MVFR VSBYS IN -SN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEAU/KRNH.  SOUTH WINDS WILL            
INCREASE IN THE EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING             
AND WILL INCREASE.  WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILING WITH THE POSSIBILITY             
OF -SN.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/DWE                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
327 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                           
MORNING CLOUDS EXITING THE AREA...WITH MORE MOVING IN FROM WESTERN              
NEBRASKA. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN              
WESTERN US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM            
ALBERTA. WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE                
RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CWA..WITH WAA NOTED AT H85...ALONG                
WITH THIN BAND OF MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH                
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION.              
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL             
SOUTH DAKOTA...JUST BEGINNING TO CLIP WESTERN COUNTIES IN CWA. FRONT            
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...AND WARMER TEMPS.                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES IN TEMPS AS CWA LIES ON WRN EDGE OF                
CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF GT LAKES TROUGH.  AT THIS POINT...CWA IS               
JUST OUTSIDE REGION OF PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT SMALL VARIATION IN THE            
LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST EAST OF THE CWA COULD MAKE A               
DIFFERENCE. MODELS DISAGREED ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE...WITH               
GFS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO CWA...WHILE NAM AND EURO IN RELATIVE                 
AGREEMENT KEEPING NARROWER SWATH OF MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST OF                
CWA.                                                                            
WAA WILL BRING NONDIRUNAL TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MINS OCCURRING                 
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPS RISING THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.              
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE                  
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WHILE FRONT WILL BRING SHALLOW MOISTURE...CROSS              
SECTIONS INDICATE LIFT WILL OCCUR BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.               
THEREFORE...KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE               
NORTHEAST OF CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING.                               
AGAIN DROPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN FAIR                  
AGREEMENT OF A COOLER TREND. CAA MOVING OVER REGION SATURDAY AND                
SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING...WILL                
KEEP TEMPS LOWER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH THE SOUTHERN              
CWA SEEING READINGS IN THE 40S SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS THROUGH               
WEEKEND AS CWA REMAINS ON WESTERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW.                        
WAA RETURNS MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. SHORTWAVE                    
DROPPING SOUTH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN NEAR THE                    
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MONDAY. IF PCPN OCCURS...TYPE IS IN               
QUESTION AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW...WITH              
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN A POSSIBILITY. LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP              
DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND BELIEVE ANY PCPN WOULD BE LIGHT.                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                                       
GLANCE AT 06Z/12Z GFS DEPICTING MAJOR DIFFERENCES STARTING AT 12Z               
WED AND CONTINUES THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. MEANWHILE ECM                   
RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTION COMPARISON IS GENERALLY BETTER...AND THUS WILL              
TREND TOWARD IT. WELL AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROF IS ADVERTISED            
EARLY IN THE PD BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKS DOWN THE WRN RIDGE               
AND LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROF ENVELOPING MOST OF             
THE LOWER 48 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PCPN CHANCES APPEAR NIL FOR THE            
MOST PART...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE DECREASING TEMPS WHEN                 
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES THE PLAINS. COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE               
CWA SHOULD BE REALIZED BY FRIDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE                
DIGITS AND HIGHS BARELY CRACKING THE LOW/MID 20S.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 17/18Z                                     
SATELLITE TRENDS MOVING BACK EDGE OF LOWER CIGS STEADILY EASTWARD               
THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGEST MODELS HAVING SOME TROUBLE IN HANDLING              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WANT TO HANG ON              
TO A LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER AROUND 900MB THIS AFTN WHILE RUC TENDS               
TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY AT KLNK AND KOMA. WENT WITH SCT-BKN LAYER              
THRU 21Z TO HANDLE UNCERTAINTY BUT TREND EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD VFR              
CONDITIONS THRU 1712Z. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT              
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND INCREASING 20-30KTS AROUND OR                 
AFTER 1712Z. SOME MVFR CIGS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT 12Z-18Z.                 
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WILKINS/MAYES                                                      
LONG TERM...DEE                                                                 
AVIATION...FOBERT                                                               
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
107 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. THIS                 
ARCTIC AIR WILL PICK UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO, AND GIVE THE                 
AREA SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPDATED AT 1130 AM...BASED ON CRNT RDR TRENDS...LES ADVISORY                    
WIBIS FOR NRN ONEIDA THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. PREV BLO...                           
UPDATED AT 1020 AM...MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTN WILL BE LES BAND EAST                 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. A CLOSE CALL WITH SIG DIFFS IN THE SHORT RNG MDL               
GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM SUGGESTING MAIN FOCUS WILL BE N OF THE CWA WITH               
SUB-ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS NRN ONEIDA. HOWEVER..THE RUC IS FURTHER S              
WITH THIS BAND...AND SUGGESTS HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR NRN                 
ONEIDA FOR LATE TDA INTO TNGT. A LOOK AT RUC-ANALYZED UPSTREAM                  
WINDS SHOWS WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRLY FLOW...AND                      
INDICATES POTNL FOR BAND TO WORK INTO OR DROP SWD INTO NRN ONEIDA               
LATER THIS AFTN AS THE WRLY FLOW INCREASES. FOR NOW WE`LL STAY PUT              
WITH 1-3 ACCUMS NRN ONEIDA TDA...AND ANOTHER 1-3 TNGT...AND                     
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTRW...MAY SEE SOME -SHSN FROM LAKE ERIE WORK              
INTO THE NRN FINGER LAKES THIS AFTN SO CHC POPS THERE...WITH JUST               
THE CHC FOR A FLURRY AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. PREV BLO...                   
UPDATED AT 830 AM...A FEW TWEEKS TO ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CRNT                 
CONDITIONS. SVRL RPTS OF MINS IN THE -10 TO -20 RNG THIS MRNG.                  
WINDS NOW PICKING UP WITH WIND CHILLS -15 TO -20 AT A FEW                       
LOCATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SRN TIER AND NE PA WITH -SHSN                     
CONFINED TO TYPICAL LAKE AREAS. CUT BACK POPS A BIT ACRS THE SRN                
TIER AND NE PA...WHERE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES ARE XPCTD WITH PARTLY                
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE BAND E OF LAKE                   
ONTARIO...LIGHT FLOW IS KEEPING HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO LAKE                     
ONTARIO. AS WSW FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN XPCT IT TO XTND FURTHER              
INLAND...BUT BY THIS TIME IT SHUD BE FOCUSED N OF NRN ONEIDA. PREV              
BLO...                                                                          
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND IS BARELY MAKING IT TO ONONDAGA COUNTY DUE               
TO LACK OF MOISTURE. WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WINDS WILL                  
SHIFT AND CREATE A MORE OR LESS SW TO NE PAIR OF BANDS OFF ERIE                 
AND ONTARIO. THE ERIE BAND MAY SKIRT OUR WESTERN FA, HENCE THE                  
50-60 POPS IN THIS VICINITY.                                                    
HAVE EXTENDED DURATION OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WE MAY HAVE A FEW                
HOURS MID AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS FAIL TO BRING TEMPS TO ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA, BUT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET TOWARD SUNSET.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
LAKE BANDS WILL FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A PERIOD OF 3 TO 6                
HOURS WHERE IT APPEARS THE ONTARIO BAND WILL MAKE A RUN AT ONEIDA               
COUNTY, AND WE HAVE ADDED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE GRIDS.                    
HOWEVER THE BANDS WILL SHIFT AGAIN TO NW TO SE DIRECTION HEADED                 
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.                                                          
WE HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT              
FOR CONTINUING FRIGID AIRMASS AND MODERATE WIND COMBO.                          
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA LATE SATURDAY.                 
WITH A LACK OF UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION, THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL               
OUT AND BRING A GOOD 24-36 HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW INTO SUNDAY. TOTAL               
ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE OVER 36 HOURS.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING...NOTHING MUCH OF SIGNIFICANCE                
OCCURS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST TODAY WITH AMPLIFIED TROF OVER                  
THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY                
AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GRDL WARM UP OF SORTS. THE MON                
NITE-TUESDAY TIME FRAME POSES SOMEWHAT OF A PROBLEM GIVEN THAT                  
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HRS APART IN EVOLUTION OF                 
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM. WE/RE LEANING WITH A CLOSER TO THE                   
COAST EVENT THAN THE ECMWF...WITH TIMING PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE              
MIDDLE GIVING US WRAPAROUND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT                 
FOLLOWING PSBL WDSPRD STORMINESS ON MONDAY. THEN...IT/S CONTINUED               
BELOW NORMAL COLD /BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS THIS WEEK/ WITH OCCASIONAL              
WEAK CLIPPER LOWS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS OVER UPSTATE                  
NY...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IN NEPA.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
IFR CONDITIONS /MAINLY VSBY/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RME THIS                
AFTERNOON AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. EXPECT               
IFR IN SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN BAND IS FCST TO              
JOG BACK TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE...SOME VFR                 
CIGS WILL WORK INTO SYR...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECTING VFR WITH SCT                 
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OTHER AIRPORTS. GUSTY WINDS THIS                   
AFTERNOON MAY OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AT SYR.                           
WEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM              
THE SOUTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.                             
SAT...VFR.                                                                      
SAT NGT-SUN...IFR IN OCNL SNOW.                                                 
SUN NGT-MON...MVFR. CHC IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH                 
ALONG EAST COAST.                                                               
MON NITE-TUE...VFR/MVFR. SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS CNTRL NY.                        
WEDS...VFR.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-               
     043-044-047-048-072.                                                       
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-                   
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                               
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
723 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA              
THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL GRIP OUR             
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... AS STRONG ARCTIC            
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM...                                                                 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                         
TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND CRITICAL TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.                  
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND RUC MODEL IMPLY COLD AIR BEGINS TO                    
IMPACT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 9 AM OR SO THIS MORNING. THURSDAY                
MORNING LOWS OF 28 TO 31 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WILL HAVE                    
LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE LEVELING OFF MID MORNING AS SUNSHINE              
BATTLES THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR CONTROL OF TEMPERATURES.                     
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FREEZING NORTHWEST AND               
LEVEL OFF BEFORE FALLING MID AFTERNOON AND LATER. FURTHER EAST A                
BIT MORE TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND MID 40S POSSIBLE               
IN THE CLINTON VICINITY.                                                        
WINDS ALOFT IN THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER TOP OUT AT ABOUT 25 MPH                 
AND SURFACE GRADIENT DOES NOT IMPRESS. WILL BE SURPRISED IF WIND                
GUSTS EXCEED 25 MPH WITH ANY FREQUENCY TODAY.                                   
CASES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN THE 1968 TO 1997 GREENSBORO DATABASE                
ARE FEW. IF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDEED DROPS ABOUT 30 TO 35                     
METERS FROM EVENING TO SUNRISE FRIDAY... THERE IS A ROUGH                       
INDICATION THAT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL SHOULD BE ABOUT 24 TO              
27 DEGREES. THUS IF WE CAN MAKE IT TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST              
PIEDMONT TODAY... MOST LOCATIONS IF NOT ALL SHOULD BE ABLE TO                   
AVOID SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE SAME ABOVE                       
MENTIONED DATABASE CONTAINS ONLY A DOZEN OR SO SIMILAR CASES...                 
WITH THE WARMEST GREENSBORO LOW AT 12 DEGREES. COMFORTABLE IN                   
CONTINUING TO PLAY A SLIGHT COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS AND PLACE MOST              
LOWS AT 11 TO 13 WITH NEAR 18 IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
AS OF 300 AM...                                                                 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST                  
THICKNESS AND INDICATED CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST              
FIVE THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE... FRIDAY HIGHS OF 27 TO 32                
ACCEPTED.                                                                       
VORTICITY CENTER ALOFT TO SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH                 
CAROLINA  FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH MOISTURE OR CIRRUS FOR NORTH              
CAROLINA BEFORE MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST... WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OR NEAR NORTH CAROLINA BY                   
SUNRISE SATURDAY FOR CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY A COUPLE OF             
CASES ROUGHLY MATCHING SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 1968 TO 1997 DATABASE            
GIVING A ROUGH INDICATION OF A 16 TO 18 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE              
FALL. THUS WILL FORECAST LOWS OF 10 TO 12 WITH READINGS NEAR 15                 
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
GOOD WARMING ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER WITH                      
SATURDAY MIXING HEIGHTS LIKELY LESS THAN 3000 FEET... THIS ENERGY               
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNTAPPED. AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID TO UPPER 30S               
MATCH WELL WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS... THICKNESS VALUES                 
AND GRADIENT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
AS OF 515 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT... FEATURING A WESTERN NOAM RIDGE              
AND DOWNSTREAM EASTERN NOAM TROUGH (POSITIVE PNA) WILL DEAMPLIFY/               
BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... BEFORE PERHAPS                         
RETROGRESSING AND RE-AMPLIFYING LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.               
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THREE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE             
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE              
PERIOD -- ONE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY -- DETAILS                        
(TIMING/AMPLITUDE) OF THESE SHORTWAVES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC.                      
SATURDAY NIGHT: TEMPERATURE SHOULD FALL QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO               
MIDDLE 20S AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY... GIVEN THE LINGERING ARCTIC                  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LEVEL              
OFF IN THE 20 TO 23 DEGREE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...                          
HOWEVER... AS LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD              
OF THE FIRST OF THE S/W`S AND ATTENDANT CLIPPER-TYPE SFC LOWS.                  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO                 
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF A SHARP... SHORT WAVELENGTH              
S/W TROUGH ALOFT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS                 
SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTANT INCREASING CONFIDENCE              
IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FORCING FOR ASCENT              
MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS                 
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE S/W IS EXPECTED              
TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE JUST TO OUR WEST AND RESULT IN A BACKED              
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW... IT WILL HAVE A BETTER                   
OPPORTUNITY (THAN MOST "NW FLOW" TROUGHS) TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION              
OVER CENTRAL NC. FURTHERMORE... THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE             
UPPER JET... EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT... IS FORECAST TO BE VERY            
NEAR OUR REGION BY 00Z MONDAY. WILL ACCORDINGLY RAISE POPS INTO THE             
CHANCE RANGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z SUN AND 06Z MON... BUT THIS REMAINS            
A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO             
REACH THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE.                                         
REGARDING P-TYPE: FORECAST THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO LIE IN THE "ALL              
SNOW" TO "INDETERMINATE TOO FEW CASES" ON THE P-TYPE NOMOGRAM. THE              
LATTER OF WHICH IS TYPICAL OF STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENTS... SUCH             
AS THIS ONE PRODUCED BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT.                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES INDICATE ALL                 
LIQUID... EXCEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE CLIMO FAVORED NW PIEDMONT               
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY... TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW NW TO RAIN/SNOW              
MIX SE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW                 
IMPACT/LOW QP EVENT IF THE PRECIPITATION EVEN MATERIALIZES... BUT IT            
BEARS WATCHING AS THE WEEKEND NEARS... NONETHELESS.                             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. THE              
L/W TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE BY THAT TIME...            
HOWEVER... SO THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY (WITH TUESDAYS THE                   
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND MORE APT TO PRODUCE PERHAPS A FLURRY OR                 
SPRINKLE). TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD GIVEN THE CONTINUED L/W TROUGHING INVOF THE EAST COAST AND               
POTENTIAL ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMBEDDED S/W`S...             
GENERALLY 40 TO 45 AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...                     
RESPECTIVELY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
AS OF 720 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS                
WILL INCREASE TO 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-23 KTS BY MID MORNING AND              
CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... AS DENSE ARCTIC AIR SURGES ACROSS             
OUR REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NC FOOTHILLS AT THE                 
MOMENT. THE WIND SHOULD VEER TO MORE NW/NNW AND SUBSIDE INTO THE                
8-13 KT RANGE WITH JUST AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS BY THIS             
EVENING... AS TURBULENT MIXING CEASES AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMES            
ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA.                                                      
LOOKING AHEAD...THE PRESENCE OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT            
IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH              
SATURDAY NIGHT. A POTENT DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY                         
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT                         
PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW MIX) AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN ITS               
WAKE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
MOST RECENT DATES AT KRDU WHERE THE HIGH WAS BELOW 32...                        
12/14/05...31                                                                   
1/19/05...30                                                                    
1/18/05...30                                                                    
MOST RECENT DATES AT KRDU WHERE THE LOW WAS IN THE TEENS...                     
1/21/08...15                                                                    
1/20/08...18                                                                    
2/19/07...19                                                                    
2/17/07...19                                                                    
2/6/07...15                                                                     
THE LAST DATES AT KRDU WHERE THE LOW WAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...                
1/29/00...7                                                                     
1/28/00...1                                                                     
MOST RECENT DATES AT KGSO WHERE THE HIGH WAS BELOW 32...                        
12/14/05...31                                                                   
1/29/05...29                                                                    
1/23/05...31                                                                    
1/18/05...28                                                                    
THE LAST DATES AT KGSO WHERE THE LOW WAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...                
1/24/05...8                                                                     
1/20/04...9                                                                     
1/24/03...7                                                                     
MOST RECENT DATES AT KFAY WHERE THE HIGH WAS BELOW 32...                        
12/20/04...30                                                                   
1/26/04...29                                                                    
MOST RECENT DATES AT KFAY WHERE THE LOW WAS IN THE TEENS...                     
1/21/08...18                                                                    
1/4/08...17                                                                     
2/19/07...19                                                                    
2/17/07...19                                                                    
2/6/07...18                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MWS                                                                  
LONG TERM...MWS                                                                 
AVIATION...MWS                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
826 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE IS -SN AND TEMPS. STRONG 850MB WARM                
AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY CAUSING VERY FINE -SN                
WITH VSBY 1-3SM. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN A DUSTING OR LESS...WITH MAIN                 
PROBLEM BEING SUCH FINE NATURE TO SNOW ALLOWING MELTING ON                      
ROADWAYS WITH DRIVING CARS...THEN QUICKLY RE-FREEZING CAUSING                   
`BLACK ICE`. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ISOLD REPORTS OF FREEZING                     
DRIZZLE...BUT HIGH CLOUDS NOW PROPAGATING OVER THE FA...AND THIS                
SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY -FZDZ (SEEDING ICE NUCLEI). AT ANY                         
RATE...PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT...AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD                
PROBLEMS...NO ADVISORY NEEDED AT THIS POINT.                                    
FOLLOWED 00Z RUC FOR HOURLY TEMPS...WHICH FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSE TO              
CURRENT FORECAST (STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING).                                     
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW...BUT SPEEDS                
STILL EXPECTED TO BE 20-30MPH...MOST LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE               
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW HAZARD. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST                    
THINKING ON TRACK AND ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WILL BE TO RAISE POPS TO                
LIKELY FOR CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION -SN ALONG AND E OF VALLEY.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BAND MVFR/IFR CIGS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE                    
VALLEY...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. 1-3SM VSBY                
IN -SN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWER CIGS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF                   
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH AREA MVFR               
CIGS MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO                  
MUCH OF SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST                
..SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND THEN WHETHER THE GUSTY NORTHWEST                   
WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY CAN LOFT ANY OF THE SNOW. MODEL               
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST...SO                  
VERY FEW FORECAST GRIDS NEED TO BE CHANGED.                                     
TONIGHT-SAT...SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN THE SAME AREA.              
THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE KMSP AREA              
TOWARD 12Z SAT. AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER BY                 
00Z SAT...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE. THERE IS A POCKET OF WARM              
AIR ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA WHERE IF ANY PCPN FALLS              
IT COULD REACH THE SFC AS VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...               
IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY UPSTREAM AND WILL NOT ADD THIS INTO THE                    
EVENING FORECAST AS IT SEEMS PRETTY REMOTE. MODELS HAVE BEEN                    
BACKING OFF ON ANY QPF AMOUNTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE                  
LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES THRU (MOSTLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT) WE                 
SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER PCPN CHANCES...AND MORE SO IN THE                    
NORTHEAST FA. 850MB TEMPS CRASH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH THE                 
BEST COLD ADVECTION ACTUALLY DONE BY 06-09Z SAT...AND THEN GETTING              
BACK INTO WARM ADVECTION THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON HOW              
MUCH OF AN ADIABATIC LAYER WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS AT 925MB ARE                  
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 30KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GOOD SFC                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC              
AND COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WITH THE SNOWPACK               
SOMEWHAT COMPACTED NOW AND NOT MUCH NEW SNOW EXPECTED...DO NOT                  
THINK ANY ADVISORY HEADLINE IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. WINDS                   
STILL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF                   
SAT...SO WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW MENTIONED IN THE                  
FORECAST. WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION (AT LEAST FOR A                    
WHILE)...THINK TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT AND              
THEN RISE (HOPEFULLY) ANOTHER 5 TO 10F FOR SAT HIGHS.                           
SAT NIGHT-MON...FA ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE                   
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT. PROBLEM WILL BE THAT WE ARE STILL IN                 
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK PIECES OF VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH...                 
WHICH COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.                  
WILL EXTEND SOME FLURRIES INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON              
ADDING THEM INTO SUN/MON. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD.               
LONG TERM [TUE-FRI]...                                                          
LONG RANGE MODELS OVERALL IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THERMAL RIDGE              
WITH WARM-UP PEAKS OVER FA MID WEEK THEN GFS/ECMWF SAG BAROCLINIC               
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD SECOND HALF OF WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BRING                    
TEMPERATURES BACK (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO AT OR BELOW SEASONAL                
AVERAGES. SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON SECOND HALF OF                
WORK WEEK BUT AT THIS POINT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT                   
POPS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
948 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOWER CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND                         
EXPECT ANY REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SC/SE OK OVERNIGHT PER RUC              
RH FIELDS. APPEARS 00Z NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HUMIDITY AROUND 9H.                 
WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...TEMPS                  
WILL ONLY LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS N               
TX SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD.                     
00Z NAM ALSO BRINGS A CANADIAN HIGH SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO                  
MONDAY. SOURCE REGION OF AIR IS MUCH WARMER THAN A WEEK AGO AS                  
FRIGID AIR IS MAINLY OVER EASTERN THIRD OF CANADA. HOWEVER                      
AIRMASS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER               
40S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  56  31  55 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         26  58  30  59 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  31  61 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           24  58  25  60 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     24  52  24  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         27  58  35  57 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SIX                                                                             
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1135 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL HELP MAINTAIN MVFR                    
CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE               
THIS CLOUD AREA FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR              
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO                  
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHEAST TO              
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER TEXAS WILL BE                    
BROUGHT NORTH... AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE PROBABLE TOMORROW MORNING                
IN THE KSPS AREA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA                 
TODAY AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN MORE PERSISTANT LIMITING ANY KIND OF                
WARMING THERE. OTHERWISE A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONT INTO THE AFTN                 
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.                                        
30                                                                              
--------------------------------------------------                              
513 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED IN KANSAS...AND                
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY APPEAR AT KPNC BEFORE IMPROVING                
LATE THIS MORNING. USED RUC AND NAM HUMIDITY AT 925-850MB TO                    
PROJECT IN TIME THE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS AT KGAG-KWWR...WHILE               
KEEPING THE DECK SCATTERED AT KOUN-KOKC. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                   
CEILINGS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE              
BY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS.                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                          
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWED A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT              
SNOW FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THIS             
BAND CENTERED WITHIN A 700-500 MB FRONTAL ZONE WITH A LARGE AND LOW             
AMPLITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM FROM THE PRECIPITATION. THIS MAKES THE                
SITUATION RELATIVELY CLEAR CUT...AS THE SNOW SHOULD PROGRESS ALONG              
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND DIMINISH AFTER IT SWINGS THROUGH. BASED ON            
THE GFS FORECAST OF 700MB LIFT...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH RADAR AND              
SATELLITE TRENDS...WE WILL PLACE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW            
IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH MIDDAY...DECREASING TO FLURRIES IN            
THE AFTERNOON. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE MORNING TO             
THE NORTH OF AN ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE. WE EXPECT THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN                   
KANSAS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COULD OCCUR                
JUST THIS SIDE OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.                                          
MEANWHILE...WIND CHILLS ARE NOTEWORTHY THIS MORNING...WITH SINGLE               
DIGITS OVER A MAJORITY OF OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...AND SOME ZERO                 
DEGREE READINGS IN THE NORTH. THE FORECAST GRIDS TAKE THE PONCA CITY            
AREA DOWN TO -5 WIND CHILL THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT WITH             
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT                
THROUGH SHORT TERM TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS RATHER THAN ISSUE AN            
ADVISORY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS PROBLEM AGAIN FRIDAY                   
MORNING...THOUGH...WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN.                                       
WE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING LOW                  
TEMPERATURES...BASED ON A RELATIVE LULL IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS                
EVENING...AND AN AXIS OF LIGHT WINDS THAT IS NOW FORECAST TO EXTEND             
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER MISSOURI             
AND ARKANSAS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTH LATE IN THE                  
NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THERE MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING...BUT ALONG              
THE RED RIVER...A FULL NIGHT OF RADIATION...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL              
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...MAY YIELD LOWS APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS.                   
THROUGH ALL OF THIS...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE                 
LARGE SCALE...AND THE 00Z GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS LATEST              
DUMP OF COLD AIR HAS CLEANED OUT THE BEST OF WHAT THE ARCTIC HAD TO             
OFFER...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BUILD UP AGAIN. IN THE                     
MEANTIME...WE EXPECT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE                
PATTERN...WHICH WILL BRING UPPER RIDGING AND RISING TEMPERATURES                
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN BREAK            
DOWN THE RIDGE WITH ONE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS               
LATE NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY TO BE                 
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...AND THE RIDGE IS                    
FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH SHOULD PLUNGE US            
BACK INTO COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  25  11  40  31 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         27  12  47  27 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  14  46  30 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           21  14  51  24 /  20   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     16   9  39  25 /  40  10   0   0                              
DURANT OK         36  11  39  30 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30/23/23                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1120 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA                 
TODAY AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN MORE PERSISTANT LIMITING ANY KIND OF                
WARMING THERE. OTHERWISE A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONT INTO THE AFTN                 
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.                                        
30                                                                              
--------------------------------------------------                              
513 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED IN KANSAS...AND               
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY APPEAR AT KPNC BEFORE IMPROVING                
LATE THIS MORNING. USED RUC AND NAM HUMIDITY AT 925-850MB TO                    
PROJECT IN TIME THE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS AT KGAG-KWWR...WHILE               
KEEPING THE DECK SCATTERED AT KOUN-KOKC. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                   
CEILINGS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE              
BY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                         
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWED A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT              
SNOW FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THIS             
BAND CENTERED WITHIN A 700-500 MB FRONTAL ZONE WITH A LARGE AND LOW             
AMPLITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM FROM THE PRECIPITATION. THIS MAKES THE                
SITUATION RELATIVELY CLEAR CUT...AS THE SNOW SHOULD PROGRESS ALONG              
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND DIMINISH AFTER IT SWINGS THROUGH. BASED ON            
THE GFS FORECAST OF 700MB LIFT...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH RADAR AND              
SATELLITE TRENDS...WE WILL PLACE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW            
IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH MIDDAY...DECREASING TO FLURRIES IN            
THE AFTERNOON. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE MORNING TO             
THE NORTH OF AN ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE. WE EXPECT THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN                   
KANSAS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COULD OCCUR                
JUST THIS SIDE OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.                                          
MEANWHILE...WIND CHILLS ARE NOTEWORTHY THIS MORNING...WITH SINGLE               
DIGITS OVER A MAJORITY OF OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...AND SOME ZERO                 
DEGREE READINGS IN THE NORTH. THE FORECAST GRIDS TAKE THE PONCA CITY            
AREA DOWN TO -5 WIND CHILL THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT WITH             
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT                
THROUGH SHORT TERM TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS RATHER THAN ISSUE AN            
ADVISORY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS PROBLEM AGAIN FRIDAY                   
MORNING...THOUGH...WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN.                                       
WE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING LOW                  
TEMPERATURES...BASED ON A RELATIVE LULL IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS                
EVENING...AND AN AXIS OF LIGHT WINDS THAT IS NOW FORECAST TO EXTEND             
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER MISSOURI             
AND ARKANSAS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTH LATE IN THE                  
NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THERE MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING...BUT ALONG              
THE RED RIVER...A FULL NIGHT OF RADIATION...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL              
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...MAY YIELD LOWS APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS.                   
THROUGH ALL OF THIS...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE                 
LARGE SCALE...AND THE 00Z GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS LATEST              
DUMP OF COLD AIR HAS CLEANED OUT THE BEST OF WHAT THE ARCTIC HAD TO             
OFFER...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BUILD UP AGAIN. IN THE                     
MEANTIME...WE EXPECT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE                
PATTERN...WHICH WILL BRING UPPER RIDGING AND RISING TEMPERATURES                
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN BREAK            
DOWN THE RIDGE WITH ONE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS               
LATE NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY TO BE                 
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...AND THE RIDGE IS                    
FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH SHOULD PLUNGE US            
BACK INTO COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  25  11  40  31 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         32  12  47  27 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  14  46  30 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           27  14  51  24 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     20   9  39  25 /  40  10   0   0                              
DURANT OK         34  11  39  30 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
02/22/22                                                                        
BURKE                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
513 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                      
.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED IN KANSAS...AND               
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY APPEAR AT KPNC BEFORE IMPROVING                
LATE THIS MORNING. USED RUC AND NAM HUMIDITY AT 925-850MB TO                    
PROJECT IN TIME THE DEVELOPING MVFR CEILINGS AT KGAG-KWWR...WHILE               
KEEPING THE DECK SCATTERED AT KOUN-KOKC. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                   
CEILINGS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE              
BY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                         
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWED A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT              
SNOW FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THIS             
BAND CENTERED WITHIN A 700-500 MB FRONTAL ZONE WITH A LARGE AND LOW             
AMPLITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM FROM THE PRECIPITATION. THIS MAKES THE                
SITUATION RELATIVELY CLEAR CUT...AS THE SNOW SHOULD PROGRESS ALONG              
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND DIMINISH AFTER IT SWINGS THROUGH. BASED ON            
THE GFS FORECAST OF 700MB LIFT...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH RADAR AND              
SATELLITE TRENDS...WE WILL PLACE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW            
IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH MIDDAY...DECREASING TO FLURRIES IN            
THE AFTERNOON. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE MORNING TO             
THE NORTH OF AN ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE. WE EXPECT THE MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN                   
KANSAS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COULD OCCUR                
JUST THIS SIDE OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.                                          
MEANWHILE...WIND CHILLS ARE NOTEWORTHY THIS MORNING...WITH SINGLE               
DIGITS OVER A MAJORITY OF OUR OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...AND SOME ZERO                 
DEGREE READINGS IN THE NORTH. THE FORECAST GRIDS TAKE THE PONCA CITY            
AREA DOWN TO -5 WIND CHILL THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT WITH             
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT                
THROUGH SHORT TERM TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS RATHER THAN ISSUE AN            
ADVISORY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS PROBLEM AGAIN FRIDAY                   
MORNING...THOUGH...WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN.                                       
WE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING LOW                  
TEMPERATURES...BASED ON A RELATIVE LULL IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS                
EVENING...AND AN AXIS OF LIGHT WINDS THAT IS NOW FORECAST TO EXTEND             
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER MISSOURI             
AND ARKANSAS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTH LATE IN THE                  
NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES THERE MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING...BUT ALONG              
THE RED RIVER...A FULL NIGHT OF RADIATION...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL              
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...MAY YIELD LOWS APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS.                   
THROUGH ALL OF THIS...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE           
SCALE...AND THE 00Z GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS LATEST DUMP OF            
COLD AIR HAS CLEANED OUT THE BEST OF WHAT THE ARCTIC HAD TO                     
OFFER...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BUILD UP AGAIN. IN THE                     
MEANTIME...WE EXPECT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE                
PATTERN...WHICH WILL BRING UPPER RIDGING AND RISING TEMPERATURES                
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN BREAK            
DOWN THE RIDGE WITH ONE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS               
LATE NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY TO BE                 
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...AND THE RIDGE IS                    
FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH SHOULD PLUNGE US            
BACK INTO COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  25  11  40  31 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         32  12  47  27 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  14  46  30 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           27  14  51  24 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     20   9  39  25 /  40  10   0   0                              
DURANT OK         34  11  39  30 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
02/22/22                                                                        
BURKE                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1208 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE SO SENT ANOTHER UPDATE              
FOR TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEW SET OF GRIDDED AND TEXT                      
PRODUCTS ISSUED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ONLY PLACE THAT CIGS WILL BELOW MVFR WILL BE AT KLRD                
AND THAT WILL BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...AND IN AREAS OF                  
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER 02Z. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF KLRD...CIGS AOA                 
4000 FEET WITH NO OTHER ISSUES EXCEPT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY PICK                
UP TONIGHT ONCE THE COLDER AIR GETS HERE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                        
UPDATE...CLOUDS AND BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE TAKING THEIR                  
TIME GETTING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...RAISED                   
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ALSO...BASED ON NEW NAM AND QUICK LOOK AT               
AVAILABLE NEW GFS...WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY ON CLOUD COVER               
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY                             
TONIGHT...SINCE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE                   
PUSHING WESTWARD LIKE THE NAM HAS BEEN DOING. FOR NOW...REMAINDER               
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.                          
MARINE...MAINTAINED SCA AS-IS...ALTHOUGH NAM IS SHOWING A SLOWER                
INCREASE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...RUC 13 IS SHOWING                 
BETTER WINDS WITH WINDS COMING UP ABOUT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO FOR           
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SCA AS-IS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT...BUT AT                
FIRST GLANCE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG...WILL LOOK AT MORE NEW                 
MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CHANGE AT THIS TIME.                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                          
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.                                              
AVIATION...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS PREVAIL...LOW CLOUD/FOG LOOP SHOWS                
STRATOCU LAYER AROUND 5 TO 6 KFT ADVANCING SLOWLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST            
WITH ONLY THE MID COAST REGION IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT                 
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AS LOW LEVEL                 
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THIS AREA TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS                
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG              
WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE               
RIO GRANDE. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO OCCUR                   
UNTIL THE RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS                  
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY                
08-09Z FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IN THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE MVFR                  
VSBYS NEAR VCT THIS MORNING.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE SECONDARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT THE             
LATEST NAM/GFS LIFTED INDEX PROGS SHOW THE SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVING             
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOVED INTO THE                 
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES             
IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPTED TO GO WITH NAM GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS                 
TODAY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NAM/GFS SHOW               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 290-295K LAYER. CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE                  
LONGEST TO REACH THE MID COAST REGION SO EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW                
60S THERE BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LOW                  
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD             
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WEST PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY.            
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER              
THE BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT. BUT THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                
ARRIVING WITH THE COLD AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY. WILL SHOW              
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FOR FRIDAY.             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST FRI NITE/SAT. LAST FEW MODEL SOLNS HAD              
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OR THE STRENGTH OF                
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...HOWEVER THE LATEST SOLNS ARE A TAD HIGHER WITH             
MOISTURE/POPS FOR FRI NITE AND AGAIN SAT NITE TIME FRAME. DID NOT GO            
AS HIGH AS THE MEX VALUES BUT MAINLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS            
THE W CWA WITH A MENTION OF -DZ ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA. DURING            
THE DAY SATURDAY THE MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT BUT CONT WITH A                
MENTION OF PATCHY DZ GIVEN SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. BY SAT                
NITE THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SOME UPPER             
DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS FROM JUST S OF THE            
AREA TO JUST N...PLACING THE RRQ ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE               
AND A SHORT WAVE ALSO COME INTO PLAY BUT ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN            
THE LOW LEVELS...CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD              
FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE? FOR NOW               
KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE NE CWA THEN                
SHIFTING S AND E ON SUN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND RIDGING                 
TAKES PLACE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER                  
CONDITIONS LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH             
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW FINALLY BECOMES                       
ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK AS A SFC LOW DVLPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE              
WHICH LEADS TO A WARMING TREND.                                                 
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON               
AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OCCURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR               
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING              
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. POSTED SCA FOR THE                 
GULF WATERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
SCA FOR THE BAYS WAS INITIATED EARLY THIS EVENING AND ENDING AROUND             
NOON FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  45  51  47  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          68  34  51  37  62  /   0  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            71  44  49  44  63  /  10  20  20  20  10                     
ALICE             72  42  49  42  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          66  43  51  47  64  /   0  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           68  41  47  41  60  /  10  10  10  20  10                     
KINGSVILLE        70  45  51  47  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       66  46  53  50  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                    
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL                 
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...               
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY                
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO                  
     PORT O`CONNOR.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT TERM                                                              
TM/95...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1006 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009                                                     
.UPDATE...CLOUDS AND BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE TAKING THEIR                 
TIME GETTING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...RAISED                   
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ALSO...BASED ON NEW NAM AND QUICK LOOK AT               
AVAILABLE NEW GFS...WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY ON CLOUD COVER               
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY                             
TONIGHT...SINCE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE                   
PUSHING WESTWARD LIKE THE NAM HAS BEEN DOING. FOR NOW...REMAINDER               
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MAINTAINED SCA AS-IS...ALTHOUGH NAM IS SHOWING A SLOWER               
INCREASE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...RUC 13 IS SHOWING                 
BETTER WINDS WITH WINDS COMING UP ABOUT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO FOR           
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SCA AS-IS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT...BUT AT                
FIRST GLANCE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG...WILL LOOK AT MORE NEW                 
MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CHANGE AT THIS TIME.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                         
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.                                              
AVIATION...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS PREVAIL...LOW CLOUD/FOG LOOP SHOWS                
STRATOCU LAYER AROUND 5 TO 6 KFT ADVANCING SLOWLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST            
WITH ONLY THE MID COAST REGION IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT                 
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AS LOW LEVEL                 
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THIS AREA TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS                
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG              
WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE               
RIO GRANDE. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO OCCUR                   
UNTIL THE RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS                  
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY                
08-09Z FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IN THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE MVFR                  
VSBYS NEAR VCT THIS MORNING.                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS               
THE SECONDARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT THE             
LATEST NAM/GFS LIFTED INDEX PROGS SHOW THE SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVING             
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOVED INTO THE                 
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES             
IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPTED TO GO WITH NAM GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS                 
TODAY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NAM/GFS SHOW               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 290-295K LAYER. CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE                  
LONGEST TO REACH THE MID COAST REGION SO EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW                
60S THERE BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LOW                  
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD             
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WEST PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY.            
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER              
THE BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT. BUT THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                
ARRIVING WITH THE COLD AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY. WILL SHOW              
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FOR FRIDAY.             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST FRI NITE/SAT. LAST FEW MODEL SOLNS HAD              
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OR THE STRENGTH OF                
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...HOWEVER THE LATEST SOLNS ARE A TAD HIGHER WITH             
MOISTURE/POPS FOR FRI NITE AND AGAIN SAT NITE TIME FRAME. DID NOT GO            
AS HIGH AS THE MEX VALUES BUT MAINLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF -RA ACROSS            
THE W CWA WITH A MENTION OF -DZ ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA. DURING            
THE DAY SATURDAY THE MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT BUT CONT WITH A                
MENTION OF PATCHY DZ GIVEN SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. BY SAT                
NITE THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SOME UPPER             
DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS FROM JUST S OF THE            
AREA TO JUST N...PLACING THE RRQ ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE               
AND A SHORT WAVE ALSO COME INTO PLAY BUT ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN            
THE LOW LEVELS...CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD              
FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE? FOR NOW               
KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA`S ACROSS THE NE CWA THEN                
SHIFTING S AND E ON SUN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND RIDGING                 
TAKES PLACE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER                  
CONDITIONS LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH             
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW FINALLY BECOMES                       
ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK AS A SFC LOW DVLPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE              
WHICH LEADS TO A WARMING TREND.                                                 
MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON               
AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OCCURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR               
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING              
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. POSTED SCA FOR THE                 
GULF WATERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE               
SCA FOR THE BAYS WAS INITIATED EARLY THIS EVENING AND ENDING AROUND             
NOON FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  51  47  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          62  34  51  37  62  /   0  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            65  44  49  44  63  /  10  20  20  20  10                     
ALICE             69  42  49  42  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          65  43  51  47  64  /   0  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           62  41  47  41  60  /  10  10  10  20  10                     
KINGSVILLE        70  45  51  47  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       66  46  53  50  65  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY           
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT                 
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO                         
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO                    
     PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA                
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY                
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO                  
     PORT O`CONNOR.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GW/86...SHORT TERM                                                              
TM/95...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
517 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE DIFF IN DIAG MODEL OUTPUT                    
THOUGH SOME PREFERENCE LIES WITH GFS WITH SHARPER MLVL TROF DVLPG               
ACRS LWR GRTLKS BY F60. SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES PER WV IMAGERY              
WITH FIRST NOW INTO WI AND OTHERS DROPPING SOUTH THRU MANITOBA                  
WITH 75KT JETLET PER RAOB SHOULD SERVE TO CARVE A HIGH AMP TROF FM              
LABRADOR SEA TO ERN OH BY MON AM. INITIAL WAVE WITH 35-45KT                     
ORTHOGONAL FLOW TO I285K ISENT WITH TWO DISTINCT 3-3.5 G/KG POOLS               
SRN IL AND SRN MN/NWRN IA. FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MOISTEN                
LLVLS TO AID IN EXPANSION OF SNOW ASSOCD W/DESCENDING CLIPPER.                  
PREFERENCE AGAIN LIES WITH GFS DIGGING SFC REFLECTION A BIT                     
FURTHER SOUTH AND REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH ECWMF SUPPORT.                      
QUESTIONS LIE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LOW QPF/SNOW                              
AMOUNTS...THOUGH HAVE UPPED POPS AND BROUGHT MINOR ACCUMS FURTHER               
SOUTH...KEEPING TIGHT GRADIENT INTO FAR SWRN/SRN ZONES W/LOW CHC                
RANGE. QUESTIONABLE ICE NUCLEATION REMAINS ESPCLY OUT OF HIEST POP              
RGNS FOR AT LEAST SCT FZDZ TO OCCUR THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT.                    
GIVEN BREADTH OF COLD AIR AND ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP HAVE LWRD               
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY. TREND OF LWRG CONTD FOR TONIGHT/SUN                  
WHILST SHRINKING DIURNAL SWING. STRONG CAA TONIGHT RIDDING                      
SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS CONCERNS FOR RMNDR OF SHORT TERM. SFC-8H CIRC              
INTO SRN ONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING CWA IN MOISTURE                        
TRAPPED/CYCLONIC REGIME WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES FOR CONT CHC               
LIGHT SNOW...HIR IN LES REGION SPCLY LATER AS POTNL FOR A LK                    
SUPERIOR CONNECTION DVLPS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                          
REGION WILL BE FALLING INTO THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LAKE            
EFFECT ATTEMPTING TO START UP AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. DELTA T`S             
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS AND INVERSION HGTS STARTING                  
AROUND 60OO FT BUT SLOWLY LOWERING WITH TIME. THESE FACTORS AND A               
RAPIDLY CHANGING PATTERN WITH ADVANCE OF ANOTHER CLIPPER MON WILL               
LIKELY KEEP SIG SNOWS FROM OCCURRING BUT STILL SHOULD GIVE PRECIP               
TO FAVORED LOCATIONS...EVEN WELL INLAND AND HAVE RAISED POPS                    
ACCORDINGLY AND WITH EYE TOWARD BETTER COLLABORATION. FLOW WILL                 
QUICKLY BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY AS BITTER COLD AIR BEGINS TO                     
DEPART THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME.                           
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WITH A MON NIGHT/TUE CLIPPER                   
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MSTR                   
STARVED AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE MUCH CONCERN AT THIS POINT. ONE             
PLUS NO MATTER WHAT...AFTERWARDS WILL BE THE START OF A PUSH OF                 
WARMER AIR...AT LEAST WELL WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN PAST FEW               
DAYS.                                                                           
MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A BRIEF WARM UP TOWARDS FREEZING BY THURSDAY            
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKS TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE                
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THURS NGT INTO FRI. MAY BE A                    
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT...BUT TOO EARLY TOO PIN DOWN THIS OR THE                 
DEGREE OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF MODELS HOLD                  
TRUE AT LEAST A BRIEF RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND MAYBE                    
SINGLE DIGITS MAY OCCUR.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRIMARY FOCUS ON UPPING TIMING OF SNFL ARRIVAL SVRL HOURS AND                   
INTRODUCING TEMPO IFR CONDS AT KSBN. ADVANCING MOISTURE ON I285K SFC            
ACRS WITH VFR SC ACRS MUCH OF IL TO HELP PRE-MOISTEN ENVIRONMENT                
ACRS NRN IND IN ADVANCE O CLIPPER SYSTEM DECENDING RAPIDLY SEWD FM              
THE NRN PLAINS. NAM WRF 4KM REFL AS WELL AS SREF/GFS/RUC ALL SUGGEST            
SN ON DOORSTEP OF KSBN BY 12 UTC. XTRMLY COLD AIRMASS TO QUICKLY                
SATURATE/CIGS LWR WITH TIME AND VSBYS AS WELL WITH FINE CRYSTAL                 
FLAKES ANTICIPATED WITH DGZ CONFINED TO SUBCLOUD LYR. SLIGHT DELAY              
AND GNRLY IMPROVED CONDS AT KFWA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MORE INTENSE               
SNWFL.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR              
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.             
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-             
     004-005-015-016-024-025.                                                   
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
110 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRIMARY FOCUS ON UPPING TIMING OF SNFL ARRIVAL SVRL HOURS AND                   
INTRODUCING TEMPO IFR CONDS AT KSBN. ADVANCING MOISTURE ON I285K SFC            
ACRS WITH VFR SC ACRS MUCH OF IL TO HELP PRE-MOISTEN ENVIRONMENT                
ACRS NRN IND IN ADVANCE O CLIPPER SYSTEM DECENDING RAPIDLY SEWD FM              
THE NRN PLAINS. NAM WRF 4KM REFL AS WELL AS SREF/GFS/RUC ALL SUGGEST            
SN ON DOORSTEP OF KSBN BY 12 UTC. XTRMLY COLD AIRMASS TO QUICKLY                
SATURATE/CIGS LWR WITH TIME AND VSBYS AS WELL WITH FINE CRYSTAL                 
FLAKES ANTICIPATED WITH DGZ CONFINED TO SUBCLOUD LYR. SLIGHT DELAY              
AND GNRLY IMPROVED CONDS AT KFWA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MORE INTENSE               
SNWFL.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GIVEN CONTINUED CRASHING TEMPERATURES...WILL NEED TO UPGRADE WIND               
CHILL ADVISORY TO WARNING AS FWA/GSH ALREADY HAVE WIND CHILLS AT                
-25F AS OF 7PM AND MORE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS FALL TO                  
BETWEEN -25 AND -35 TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES                   
MORE...GENERALLY BETWEEN -10 TO -15 WITH A FEW SITES LIKELY                     
FALLING A LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS.                                               
UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE TO CUT TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS WE/LL HAVE SOME IDEAL                
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE                    
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELP TURN TEMPS AROUND                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE MINUS TEENS SUGGEST PLENTY OF                  
ROOM TO DROP. RUC13 HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS THIS EVENING BUT                
AM A LITTLE FEARFUL THAT IN SOME SPOTS IT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM.                
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS MEANS ANOTHER NIGHT OF -10 TO -15F.                
IN ADDITION...THE SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPS SHOULD PROLONG ADV LEVEL                
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WC ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z                
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING AS WE WILL BE NEAR               
WC WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPS/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND                   
SN/FZDZ CHANCES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR 5 KNOTS              
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW TEMPS             
TO PLUMMET BACK TOWARDS -10F THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME WARMING                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY LL FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACKSIDE OF                 
1040MB ARCTIC HIGH WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL                   
APPS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...HAVE NON DIURNAL TEMPS TONIGHT                
WITH VALUES HOPEFULLY WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO BY                
12Z SAT. COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SSW SFC WINDS WILL KEEP                 
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE...SO WENT WITH A WIND                   
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY.                         
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN FRINGE OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN                 
PAC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE SEWD INTO THE UPPER                   
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...AND THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY               
NIGHT. FAVOR FARTHER NORTH AND DRIER NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS OVER              
THE GFS IN TRACKING ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION INTO CENTRAL LOWER                
MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE NAM HAS PERFORMED BETTER FOR              
THE LAST SEVERAL CLIPPER EVENTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.                       
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH 40-50KT CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW AND 2-3                 
G/KG MOISTURE SURGE OVER ARCTIC DOME DOES SUPPORT A BAND OF                     
LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW PIVOTING EAST THROUGH AT LEAST FAR NORTHERN                 
AREAS ON SATURDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN              
THE 1-3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE COLDWATER/HILLSDALE                   
AREAS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS. MAYBE A                
COATING TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AREAS WITH LITTLE IF ANY                          
ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHWEST. ADDED FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION TO                
WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS SAT AFTN/EVE AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS                       
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ICE PRODUCTION ZONE               
WITH LL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOWERING INVERSION. SLICK SPOTS                
ON AREA ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. OTHERWISE...               
IT WILL FEEL BALMY OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RECOVERING              
ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE 20S. LARGE SCALE LIFT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE AND DIFF PVA AHEAD OF H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY                 
00Z SUN WITH JUST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES/PATCHY                  
FZDZ SAT EVE. CAA BEHIND SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.                       
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS 06-12Z SUN. DELTA T/S OF              
15-18 AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                 
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER...INVERSION NEAR 5KFT               
AND UNFAVORABLE 280/290 DEGREE FETCH DO NOT FAVOR ACCUMS ABOVE 2                
INCHES.                                                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
LONG TERM WILL SEE CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE            
CONUS AS WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY            
UNDERCUTS IT. TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST            
AS NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER JET REMAINS DOMINANT AND CONTINUES TO               
DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY                     
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND THEREFORE A             
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM                 
GRIDS.                                                                          
BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL SEE CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING AND EXITING THE            
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL                  
CONTINUES BEHIND CLIPPER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INTO               
MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS AN INTERESTING SETUP AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR A            
DECENT SNOW EVENT ASSUMING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LIMITING                  
FACTOR WILL BE TRANSITORY NATURE OF BAND AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE. DUE             
TO LIMITING FACTORS AND QUESTIONS ON BAND PLACEMENT HAVE CONTINUED              
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS RATHER THAN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL. LATEST NAM             
INDICATING EVOLUTION INTO SINGLE BAND INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY              
MONDAY MORNING. NAM HAS ALSO STRUGGLED WITH RECENT LAKE EVENTS IN               
THESE PERIODS SO STILL SOME DOUBT.                                              
STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS GRIDS AND HPC FOR MIDDLE TO LATE            
PART OF LONG TERM GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. ECMWF HAS BEEN MODEL OF              
CHOICE MOST OF WINTER AND IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH MID WEEK WARM            
UP AS GFS...WHICH SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID                    
JANUARY. HAVE DOUBTS AT THIS TIME ON SUCH A PRONOUNCED WARM UP GIVEN            
STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AND DEEP SNOW PACK THAT EXISTS.                 
PREFER COOLER ECMWF. GRIDS AND HPC IN THE MIDDLE AND PREFER TO KEEP             
IT THAT WAY UNTIL CLEAR PATTERN EVOLVES.                                        
ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS                 
DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG CYCLONE BY DAY 7. AGAIN WILL STAY IN                 
MIDDLE GROUND AND SIDE WITH HPC FOR COLLABORATION GIVEN WIDE VARIETY            
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR                  
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                                    
MI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>081.                 
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-             
     005-015-016-024-025.                                                       
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
UPDATE...ARNOTT                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1233 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE W AND A                
DEEP TROF OVER THE E. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF WAS DROPPING SE             
THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS WILL BE            
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION SAT. ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER LAKES              
REGION IS BEGINNING TO EASE UNDER DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF               
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE                  
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. VIS SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY AND KMQT RADAR SHOW DIMINISHING LES SHIFTING UNDER BACKING              
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. LAST OF THE LES IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TIP OF              
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS FROM PICTURED ROCKS ACROSS NRN LUCE            
COUNTY. HIGH RES POLAR ORBITER IMAGE TODAY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ICE                
FORMATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF             
DAYS. BKN ICE EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO THE MN SHORE.              
MORE ICE EXTENDS FROM THE MN/ONTARIO SHORE TO ISLE ROYALE...AND A               
LARGE AREA OF ICE HAS FORMED W OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM SHOT PT TO                
MANITOU ISLAND.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SAT AFTN)...                                          
LAST OF THE LES OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM AROUND GRAND              
MARAIS EWD WILL END THIS EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF             
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/LOW PRES.                    
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL UNDER 1 INCH. BEFORE CLOUDS                          
INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE NW...TEMPS MAY CRASH UNDER LIGHT WINDS.               
FAVORED THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO                 
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS                
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS THAT AREA HAS BEST POTENTIAL             
TO FALL BLO FCST MINS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE            
TROF. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE                     
TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 285K SFC            
(AROUND 700MB). WITH 6-9HRS OF LIFT...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE                
FROM 2-3INCHES BY THE TIME SNOW DIMINISHES SAT. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM               
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPS FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC               
SNOW GROWTH FROM NEAR THE SFC TO AROUND 10KFT OR SO. THUS...SNOW TO             
WATER RATIOS MAY BE QUITE HIGH. WHILE AN ADVY LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM               
FOR THE FCST AREA...IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE BECOMING BETTER                   
ORGANIZED WITH MORE FOCUSED FORCING AS IT TRACKS SE. HAVE THUS OPTED            
FOR AN ADVY ACROSS THE S FROM IRON COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT FOR                
ROUGHLY 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS                
WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL SHOWS            
IMPORTANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NRN LAKE               
MICHIGAN...CONSENSUS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST               
SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT. HOWEVER...HAVE                  
CONCERNS THAT SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT/HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY                
OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA GIVEN THE DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH               
ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHARP CONVERGENCE TO SET UP FOR A TIME UNDER             
SFC TROF THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. FOR NOW...INCLUDED THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6            
INCHES ACROSS SE DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR             
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IF WIND FIELDS SET UP JUST RIGHT. WILL NEED TO               
MONITOR MODEL RUNS TONIGHT TO SEE IF A TREND DEVELOPS FOR MORE                  
FOCUSED SRLY CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA.                                          
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                              
POSTIVE PNA PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVR WESTERN NOAM AND TROUGH OVR                
EASTERN NOAM CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGE/WARMER AIR OVR                  
WEST CONUS DOES EDGE INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT...THE BRIEF WARM UP IS QUICKLY                 
REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH               
DEEPENS. EXTENDED MODELS ONLY SHOWING LOOSE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL            
PATTERN AND DIFFER EVEN MORE ON DETAILS. THIS RESULTS IN BLO NORMAL             
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST.                                             
IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY CLIPPER LOW...EXPECT RESURGENCE IN LK               
EFFECT AS H85 TEMPS FALL OFF TOWARD -15C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE                    
INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PROGGED LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW                 
GROWTH REGION AS WELL. 925-850MB WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO              
15 KT SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TEND TO HANG ALONG THE SHORE OR MOVE             
JUST INLAND. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH LINED UP WITH THE                 
LK EFFECT MOIST LAYER...MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK            
TO SET UP OVR WESTERN AND NCNTRL AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FM N              
TO NNE. PINNING DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY OCCUR BECOMING MORE             
MUDDLED DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVER ON LK SUPERIOR.                             
ONGOING LK EFFECT ON MONDAY WILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE AS                
SHORTWAVE DROPS ALMOST NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS UPR LAKES. SLIGHTLY                
BACKING WINDS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SHIFT BACK MORE NRLY BY LATE DAY            
INTO THE EVENING. SHARPNESS OF WIND SHIFT MORE IN QUESTION. SINCE               
THIS WAVE IS JUST APPEARING IN GUIDANCE TODAY...DID NOT HIT IT TOO              
HARD YET. INCREASED POPS ALONG ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER THIS SFC             
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH...NW LK EFFECT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.              
WINDS BACK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE UPR LAKES LATE NEXT            
WEEK. KEPT POPS ON WED ONLY CONFINED TO KEWEENAW IN EXPECTED SW FLOW            
IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BEYOND WED NIGHT...CHOSE TO DISCOUNT 12Z GFS                 
SOLUTION AS IT COMPLETELY BROKE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND               
MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE BY KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT OVR UPR LAKES               
AND DELAYING PUSH OF COLD AIR UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY. FORECAST IS MUCH               
MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. AFTER A                
PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MORE            
LK EFFECT DEVELOPS IN N/NW FLOW AREAS INTO FRIDAY. COLD TEMPS RETURN            
WITH READINGS FALLING BACK BLO NORMAL. HOWEVER...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK              
TO FALL TO LEVELS SEEN THIS WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR CIGS/VSBY BEFORE                      
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS LOWERING IN CIGS             
AND VSBYS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE               
AREA. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD               
IMPROVE TO MVFR.                                                                
AT KSAW...DRY DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS                 
PREVAILING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING                      
INTO THE AREA SAT WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VIS/CIGS FOR SAT MORNING.              
AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR CONDITIONS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD END OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY                   
SUNRISE SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS                
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                   
     MIZ010.                                                                    
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR                    
     MIZ013-014.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR                    
     MIZ011-012.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-              
     264-266-267.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB/AJ                                                               
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
221 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY THIS MORNING A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE WAS JUST NORTH OF THE               
MINNESOTA/CANADA BORDER WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS                
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN PRIOR TO 2                
AM. VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS               
WAS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...EVEN SOME OF               
THE WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS CAUSING WIND                  
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE                       
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES SINCE FRIDAY EVENING.                  
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT CANBY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA WAS IN THE UPPER               
TEENS...JUST PRIOR TO 2 AM...TEMPERATURES ROSE TO 30. THIS IS NICE              
WARMING OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW FOR EXTREME                       
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY TO THE              
TWIN CITIES AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. EVEN BEHIND THIS                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS MONTANA AND              
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                                                           
DUE TO THESE DYMANIC CHANGES...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD              
TIME WITH EVEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL LIKELY                 
PLAY HAVOC WITH SATURDAY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS EVEN THE                
SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. FORECAST                  
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HAND EDITING                          
WIND/TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE FOR THE FIRST 12              
TO 18 HRS. AFTER TODAY...WILL FOLLOW THE WRF AS THIS MODEL HAD                  
SOME INDICATIONS OF THE STRONGER WIND FIELD AND MOISTURE                        
ADVECTION.                                                                      
SOUNDINGS ACROSS MPX CWA INCLUDING A CROSS SECTION FROM NEAR FSD                
TO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...DOES SHOW AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED LIFT               
AND DEEPER MOISTURE FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WHICH               
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER PERCENTAGES OF SNOW CHANCES AND QPF...MAINLY                
BEFORE 18Z. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE VERY SHALLOW               
AND THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL LEAVE THE              
CWA. THEREFORE...ONLY FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED.                 
SOME INDICATIONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MINOR LIFT FOR LATE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR SNOWFALL               
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT OVERALL                    
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ADDING LIGHT SNOW OR ACCUMULATIONS OF                
MORE THAN A DUSTING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT               
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.                           
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR SUNDAY                 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OTHER WX PARAMETERS REASONABLE DUE TO THE                
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT AND THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SFC LOW IN FAR ERN ND HEADING SEWD AND ENTIRE AREA IN WARM                      
ADVECTION NOW. RUC SUGGESTS THIS WILL SLIDE NE OF STC/RNH SO HAVE               
TRENDED WINDS THROUGH THE SW TO NW. AS MENTIONED IN 326 PM                      
DISCUSSION...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS RECENTLY COMMENCED... ALL THE                 
WAY FROM KINL AREA TO KMSP. WARM NOSE MOST EVIDENT ON PROFILES AS               
VIEWED WITH BUFKIT SUGGEST A FEW HOURS OF ZL ARE POSSIBLE AT                    
STC/MSP/EAU/RNH...WITH EAU MOST PRONE TO IFR VSBYS FROM SNOW                    
STARTING A LITTLE PRIOR TO 12Z. COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW AS LOW                 
TREKS SEWD WITH MVFR WRAP AROUND...MOSTLY FROM CNTRL MN INTO WISC.              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLT/RAH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1155 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009/                                             
THE WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN WITH A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING FROM IA              
INTO CENTRAL MN. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC                     
TONIGHT. MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...AND FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS BOUNCE AROUND A BIT WITH SATURATION AROUND -10C. THERE                
ARE A FEW HOURS HERE AND THERE WHERE FREEZING MIGHT BE THE PRECIP               
TYPE..DURING THE EVENING AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIG SHORT                  
WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RUC AND NAM                
BRING IN WELL DEFINED OMEGA IN THE -15 C PLANE AND INCREASING                   
THETA E ADVECTION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE                 
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MICH OF THE FORCING COMES                   
TOGETHER OVER EAST EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL KEEP THE                
HIGHER POPS IN WI BUT INCREASE BACK INTO MN A BIT. UP TO 3 INCHES               
OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE              
THE RISING TEMPE TREND OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO DO SOME LAST                   
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS.                                                             
THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL STRONG AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY           
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET IN A NORTH TO SOUTH                      
ORIENTATION TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT               
BAY UNTIL TUESDAY. A FEW MINOR RIPPLES MOVING SSE MAY GENERATE                  
A FEW FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WARMEST DAY STILL                
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COULD EASILY SEE                  
SOME MID 30S. GFS AND ECMWF THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING                  
ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION BY FRIDAY..ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS THE              
CURRENT AIRMASS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SFC LOW IN FAR ERN ND HEADING SEWD AND ENTIRE AREA IN WARM                      
ADVECTION NOW. RUC SUGGESTS THIS WILL SLIDE NE OF STC/RNH SO HAVE               
TRENDED WINDS THROUGH THE SW TO NW. AS MENTIONED IN 326 PM                      
DISCUSSION...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS RECENTLY COMMENCED... ALL THE                 
WAY FROM KINL AREA TO KMSP. WARM NOSE MOST EVIDENT ON PROFILES AS               
VIEWED WITH BUFKIT SUGGEST A FEW HOURS OF ZL ARE POSSIBLE AT                    
STC/MSP/EAU/RNH...WITH EAU MOST PRONE TO IFR VSBYS FROM SNOW                    
STARTING A LITTLE PRIOR TO 12Z. COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW AS LOW                 
TREKS SEWD WITH MVFR WRAP AROUND...MOSTLY FROM CNTRL MN INTO WISC.              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1047 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS... STILL THINK MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY                  
MOSTLY SE OF OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. BUT LOW CLOUDS NOW SPREADING                
ACROSS TX ARE BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN. LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS                    
UNDERESTIMATED N-WARD EXTENT OF CLOUDS LAST NIGHT AND THIS                      
MORNING. TONIGHT WE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE HIGHER RUC SFC/BL RH              
AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BRING STRATUS/FOG INTO KSPS                 
AND POSSIBLY KLAW AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. VEERED FLOW               
JUST OFF SFC SHOULD KEEP IT SHALLOW... AND MIXING WILL HELP ERODE               
IT QUICKLY. OTHERWISE LITLE CHANGE TO TIMING OF WIND SHIFT MOVING               
SE ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE DAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
LOWER CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND                         
EXPECT ANY REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SC/SE OK OVERNIGHT PER RUC              
RH FIELDS. APPEARS 00Z NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HUMIDITY AROUND 9H.                 
WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...TEMPS                  
WILL ONLY LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS N               
TX SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD.                     
00Z NAM ALSO BRINGS A CANADIAN HIGH SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO                  
MONDAY. SOURCE REGION OF AIR IS MUCH WARMER THAN A WEEK AGO AS                  
FRIGID AIR IS MAINLY OVER EASTERN THIRD OF CANADA. HOWEVER                      
AIRMASS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER               
40S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  28  56  31  55 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         26  58  30  59 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  61  31  61 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           24  58  25  60 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     24  52  24  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         27  58  35  57 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/24/24                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
845 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
837 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS                 
AND THE NEED...IF ANY FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WINDS ALREADY                        
INCREASING TO IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE HEATING                
AND CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY. MODIFYING                
FCST SOUNDINGS WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT                      
ADVISORY TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                    
LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS BELOW CRITERIA...BUT ALSO               
APPEAR TO KEEP TEMPS LESS THAN 50 DEGREES ALL DAY WHICH APPEARS                 
UNLIKELY. HAVE UPPED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND SPED UP THEIR                    
INCREASE...BUT SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW END/MARGINAL ADVISORY                
PLAN ON WATCHING OBSERVATIONS FOR A WHILE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL               
CALL.                                                                           
CWA MAY ALSO APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA AS DEEPER MIXING DROPS TDS              
INTO THE TEENS. WITH RECENT SNOW MELT UNSURE HOW MUCH EVAPORATION               
WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH THAT WILL OFFSET MIXING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS               
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH....BUT NOT EXCEED CRITERIA.                       
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
200 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS ARE THE FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH THE              
SHORT TERM PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN WITH MUCH             
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY            
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS                    
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO              
THE NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON             
TEMPERATURES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN POST FRONTAL                    
ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS A POCKET OF 800MB WINDS OF UP TO 60KTS OVER            
THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOWER LEVELS WILL BE                   
DECOUPLED. BUFKIT SHOWS MIXING WILL NOT REALLY GET UNDERWAY UNTIL               
AFTER 18Z AND THE MIXED LAYER HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 800MB            
AT PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BY THAT TIME WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING.        
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT             
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS.            
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...APPEARS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT              
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE THE CRITICAL 15%                    
THRESHOLD...ALTHOUGH THEY DO DIP TO AROUND 20%. ANOTHER CLOSE CALL              
FOR RED FLAG...BUT BELIEVE WILL FALL SHORT. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION              
THOSE CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT.                              
IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT               
BASIN WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AS IT                 
AMPLIFIES. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.                
PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE WILL PROTECT THE AREA FROM ANY ARCTIC COLD               
FRONTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE EACH DAY...PEAKING AROUND TUESDAY IN            
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS...WHICH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR JANUARY. A               
FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THIS PERIOD.               
SINCE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THERE            
WILL BE A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER OR VERY CLOSE...WHICH MEANS THE            
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS WITH PEAK HEATING. IN                         
ADDITION...THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY FOR MOST OF THE PAST                      
MONTH...EXEMPLIFIED BY A SMALL GRASS FIRE REPORTED IN NORTON COUNTY             
ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BEGINNING ON            
SUNDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. FAILED TO              
COORDINATE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY...WHEN CONDITIONS WILL               
ADMITTEDLY BY MARGINAL...SO WILL PASS CONCERNS TO THE NEXT SHIFT AND            
MENTION IN OTHER PRODUCTS.                                                      
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
414 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE               
PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS              
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL STOP GUSTING AND BE MORE                   
STEADY WHEN SUNSET APPROACHES.                                                  
BULLER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1055 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                 
NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PRONOUNCED              
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN              
U.P. WEAKER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST                   
SASKTACHEWAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN            
WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AN            
INVERTED TROUGH ALSO STRETCHES NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO. A WEAK            
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A              
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE ROCKIES PUSHING THIS SYSTEM                  
EAST...WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND MID                
ATLANTIC STATES IMPEDES ITS MOVEMENT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND Q-VECTOR            
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA. A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN                 
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
THE MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. GFS STARTS            
TO BE THE OUTLIER AFTER THAT. THUS I FAVOR USING THE CONSENSUS. THE             
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AND            
EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANHILE...THE ACCOMPANYING                 
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DRAWING THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORTWAVE            
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOWS OVER THE AREA. THE DRY SLOT              
SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN U.P. REDUCE SNOWFALL              
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEMS TO REFLECT THIS VERY WELL.              
AS NOTED EARLIER...DEEP LAYER WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS NOTED             
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO YIELD HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS PROBABLY              
FROM 20-25/1 FOR IRON THROUGH MENOMINEE COUNTIES INTO MID AFTERNOON.            
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS                
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO               
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT AND LATER.                                                 
IN THE WAKE OF THE TODAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW IN A CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS             
FALL TO -16/-17C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND                  
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM. ALSO PROGGED OMEGA/LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH            
REGION AS NOTED ON MODEL FCST SNDGS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND            
GOOD LLVL CONV AS NOTED ON WRF-ARW...ESPECIALLY OVER                            
GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA SNOW AMTS FOR ANY 12 HR PD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A             
LES ADVISORY FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                    
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE ADVANCES FROM             
THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM                
CANADA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK NW AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE NRN TIER.                                                 
DPVA/Q-VECT CONV SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER            
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP             
CHC POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER            
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE             
LES BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE               
EAST OF A CLIPPER DROPPING THROUGH MN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO                
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES SE TO             
LAKE MI THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT GENERAL IFR VSBYS AND               
MVFR/IFR CIGS GOING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW MOVING            
INTO KSAW PER LATEST RADAR LOOP AND LOCAL MODEL RUNS...SO TO COVER              
THE POSSIBILITY HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR CONDITIONS. THE            
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTN...SO BROUGHT VSBYS/CIGS                    
AT BOTH TAF SITES TO MVFR...AND EVEN VFR AT CMX. TONIGHT...A SFC                
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SW WITH             
TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONGEAL ALONG THE TROUGH...ENTERING               
CMX SOMETIME AFTER 06Z AND THEN ENDING VERY LATE AS WINDS TURN NE.              
AT SAW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...              
EITHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OR THE NE WINDS BEHIND IT.                    
THEREFORE...A CONTINUATION OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE PLANNED FOR SAW.              
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO                 
INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY                  
SUNRISE DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN              
PLACE...WILL RESULT IN KEEPING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING THROUGH               
TODAY. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON EASTERN SUPERIOR SHOULD END THIS             
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH THERE.                                                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ010.                      
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                    
     MIZ013-014.                                                                
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MIZ011-012.                                                                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 PM                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ266-267.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...VOSS                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
643 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED                     
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH INTO NRN MN. DPVA AND STRONG 280-285K                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SPREAD LIGHT TO                   
MODERATE SNOW INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL              
RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND 280-285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS UPR MI. PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS              
FAIRLY BRIEF (6-9 HRS) WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG AVBL. LOOK FOR               
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND               
NCNTRL COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ALONG THE WI               
BDR COUNTIES CLOSER TO BEST LIFT AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DEEPENING            
SFC LOW. DEEP LAYER WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS NOTED ON MODEL              
SNDGS WILL ALSO YIELD HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS PROBABLY FROM 20-25/1.             
THUS...SNOW ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR IRON THROUGH MNM COUNTIES            
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI IS                
ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LVL FLOW               
SHIFTING FROM SW TO MORE SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.                        
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CONVERGENCE NEVER                 
STAYS OVER ONE AREA FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS...HAVE DECIDED                
AGAINST UPGRADING ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR DELTA AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.            
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END ADVISORY AMTS OF 3-7 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER               
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.                               
IN THE WAKE OF THE TODAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW IN A CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS             
FALL TO -16/-17C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND                  
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM. ALSO PROGGED OMEGA/LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH            
REGION AS NOTED ON MODEL FCST SNDGS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND            
GOOD LLVL CONV AS NOTED ON WRF-ARW...ESPECIALLY OVER                            
GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA SNOW AMTS FOR ANY 12 HR PD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A             
LES ADVISORY FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                    
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE ADVANCES FROM             
THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM                
CANADA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK NW AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE NRN TIER.                                                 
DPVA/Q-VECT CONV SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER            
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP             
CHC POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER            
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE             
LES BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE               
EAST OF A CLIPPER DROPPING THROUGH MN. EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO                
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES SE TO             
LAKE MI THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT GENERAL IFR VSBYS AND               
MVFR/IFR CIGS GOING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW MOVING            
INTO KSAW PER LATEST RADAR LOOP AND LOCAL MODEL RUNS...SO TO COVER              
THE POSSIBILITY HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR CONDITIONS. THE            
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTN...SO BROUGHT VSBYS/CIGS                    
AT BOTH TAF SITES TO MVFR...AND EVEN VFR AT CMX. TONIGHT...A SFC                
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SW WITH             
TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONGEAL ALONG THE TROUGH...ENTERING               
CMX SOMETIME AFTER 06Z AND THEN ENDING VERY LATE AS WINDS TURN NE.              
AT SAW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...              
EITHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OR THE NE WINDS BEHIND IT.                    
THEREFORE...A CONTINUATION OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE PLANNED FOR SAW.              
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO                 
INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY                  
SUNRISE DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN              
PLACE...WILL RESULT IN KEEPING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING THROUGH               
TODAY. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON EASTERN SUPERIOR SHOULD END THIS             
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH THERE.                                                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ010.                      
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS               
     EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.                                                    
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS               
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ011-012.                                                  
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 PM                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ266-267.                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                  
     LSZ263-264.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
614 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
UPDATED FOR ISSUE AN LES ADVISORY FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES            
LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED                     
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH INTO NRN MN. DPVA AND STRONG 280-285K                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SPREAD LIGHT TO                   
MODERATE SNOW INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL              
RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND 280-285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS UPR MI. PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS              
FAIRLY BRIEF (6-9 HRS) WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG AVBL. LOOK FOR               
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND               
NCNTRL COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ALONG THE WI               
BDR COUNTIES CLOSER TO BEST LIFT AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DEEPENING            
SFC LOW. DEEP LAYER WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS NOTED ON MODEL              
SNDGS WILL ALSO YIELD HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS PROBABLY FROM 20-25/1.             
THUS...SNOW ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR IRON THROUGH MNM COUNTIES            
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI IS                
ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LVL FLOW               
SHIFTING FROM SW TO MORE SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.                        
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CONVERGENCE NEVER                 
STAYS OVER ONE AREA FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS...HAVE DECIDED                
AGAINST UPGRADING ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR DELTA AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.            
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END ADVISORY AMTS OF 3-7 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER               
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.                               
IN THE WAKE OF THE TODAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW IN A CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS             
FALL TO -16/-17C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND                  
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM. ALSO PROGGED OMEGA/LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH            
REGION AS NOTED ON MODEL FCST SNDGS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND            
GOOD LLVL CONV AS NOTED ON WRF-ARW...ESPECIALLY OVER                            
GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA SNOW AMTS FOR ANY 12 HR PD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A             
LES ADVISORY FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                    
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE ADVANCES FROM             
THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM                
CANADA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK NW AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE NRN TIER.                                                 
DPVA/Q-VECT CONV SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER            
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP             
CHC POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER            
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE             
LES BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR CIGS/VSBY BEFORE                      
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS LOWERING IN CIGS             
AND VSBYS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE               
AREA. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD               
IMPROVE TO MVFR.                                                                
AT KSAW...DRY DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS                 
PREVAILING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING                      
INTO THE AREA SAT WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VIS/CIGS FOR SAT MORNING.              
AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR CONDITIONS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY                  
SUNRISE DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN              
PLACE...WILL RESULT IN KEEPING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING THROUGH               
TODAY. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON EASTERN SUPERIOR SHOULD END THIS             
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH THERE.                                                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ010.                      
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS               
     EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.                                                    
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS               
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ011-012.                                                  
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 PM                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ266-267.                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                  
     LSZ263-264.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...JLB/AJ                                                               
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED                     
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH INTO NRN MN. DPVA AND STRONG 280-285K                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SPREAD LIGHT TO                   
MODERATE SNOW INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL              
RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND 280-285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS UPR MI. PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS              
FAIRLY BRIEF (6-9 HRS) WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG AVBL. LOOK FOR               
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND               
NCNTRL COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ALONG THE WI               
BDR COUNTIES CLOSER TO BEST LIFT AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DEEPENING            
SFC LOW. DEEP LAYER WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS NOTED ON MODEL              
SNDGS WILL ALSO YIELD HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS PROBABLY FROM 20-25/1.             
THUS...SNOW ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR IRON THROUGH MNM COUNTIES            
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI IS                
ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW-LVL FLOW               
SHIFTING FROM SW TO MORE SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.                        
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CONVERGENCE NEVER                 
STAYS OVER ONE AREA FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HRS...HAVE DECIDED                
AGAINST UPGRADING ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR DELTA AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.            
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END ADVISORY AMTS OF 3-7 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER               
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.                               
IN THE WAKE OF THE TODAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW IN A CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS H85 TEMPS             
FALL TO -16/-17C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT AND                  
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE LEFT OVR FM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE                  
SYSTEM. ALSO PROGGED OMEGA/LIFT IS WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH            
REGION AS NOTED ON MODEL FCST SNDGS. GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND            
GOOD LLVL CONV...ESPECIALLY OVER GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON AND MQT COUNTY               
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMS REACH ADVISORY                    
CRITERIA FOR ANY 12 HR PD. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL                 
DISCREPANCY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE MORE DOMINANT BANDS WILL FORM...            
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SNOW AMTS JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR                   
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON THE DAY SHIFT FOR A                 
POSSIBLE HEADLINE LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.                                       
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE ADVANCES FROM             
THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH FROM                
CANADA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK NW AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE NRN TIER.                                                 
DPVA/Q-VECT CONV SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER            
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP             
CHC POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER            
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE             
LES BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR CIGS/VSBY BEFORE                      
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS LOWERING IN CIGS             
AND VSBYS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE               
AREA. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD               
IMPROVE TO MVFR.                                                                
AT KSAW...DRY DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS                 
PREVAILING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING                      
INTO THE AREA SAT WILL BRING -SN AND IFR VIS/CIGS FOR SAT MORNING.              
AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR CONDITIONS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY                  
SUNRISE DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EASTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN              
PLACE...WILL RESULT IN KEEPING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING THROUGH               
TODAY. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON EASTERN SUPERIOR SHOULD END THIS             
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH THERE.                                                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BLO GALE FORCE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MIZ010.                      
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS               
     EVENING FOR MIZ013-014.                                                    
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS               
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ011-012.                                                  
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                  
     LSZ266-267.                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                  
     LSZ263-264.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...JLB/AJ                                                               
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
945 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND SNOW                    
CHANCES.                                                                        
HAVE ALLOWED CURRENT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND              
RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH MIXED LAYER             
TODAY. STRONGEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO THROUGH FA AND                  
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA EAST OF VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO            
SHIFT EAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE IN THE 15 MPH RANGE WITH SURFACE                
PRESSURE GRADIENT HOWEVER NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY EXPECTED. AS FAR AS            
SNOW MAIN SHORTWAVE THROUGH FA WITH SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES. STILL SEEING VSBY RESTRICTION TO -SN OVER MOST OB SITES EAST             
OF VALLEY. HAVE EXPANDED POPS WEST UP TO VALLEY AND CONTINUED INTO              
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND MINOR                
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.                   
TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL             
WARM ADVECTION MINOR IN CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY SUN EXPECTED             
TODAY IS OVER WESTERN FA AS RUC MAINTAINS LOW LEVEL RH (925-850MB)              
UP TO VALLEY AT 00Z. TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL WILL BE                    
MINOR.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FROM VALLEY EAST THROUGH MOST OF DAY AS             
RUC HOLDS LOW LEVEL INTEGRATED RH IN THROUGH 00Z. WINDS HAVE                    
DIMINISHED BUT TO REMAIN FROM 15 TO 20KTS WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT.               
SNOW LIMITING VSBY TO <3 MILES WILL BE EAST OF VALLEY AND TO                    
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1029 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. A LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING AN AREA OF SNOW. NORTHERLY FLOW                
OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO MONDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AREA OF ISENT LIFT NICELY DEFINED ON 280-285K RUC MOVING ACRS NRN               
FCST AREA ATTM. SEEING SOME FLURRIES AS THIS SHOT OF ISENT LIFT                 
PASSES THRU...PROBABLY EVEN SEEING -SHSN WITHIN HEAVIER RETURNS                 
OVER FAR NRN FCST AREA. ADDED SCHC -SHSN OVER FAR NORTH WITH                    
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEPER ISENT LIFT SHIFTS                  
EAST OF FCST AREA BY ERLY AFTN...WITH ANY -SHSN/FLURRIES                        
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
SC DECK ASSOCD WITH ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST INTO AFTN                   
HOURS...WITH A PREVAILING BKN MID LVL DECK FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF              
THE AFTN. CURRENT VIS SAT SHWNG A FAIR AMT OF CLEARING BACK ACRS                
SRN ILLINOIS AHEAD OF APPCHG COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBILITY TO SEE                
SOME SUN ACRS SRN FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/              
-SHSN WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY ERLY EVNG AS SFC LO                   
MOVES INTO WRN MICHIGAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT APPCHG WRN FCST                
AREA.                                                                           
TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED NICELY THIS MRNG FROM ANOTHER SUBZERO NIGHT                
FOR MANY. TEMPS HAD WARMED INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS                
ACRS FCST AREA AS SRLY FLO AND LO LVL WAA HAVE COMMENCED. WIND                  
CHILLS HAVE LARGELY RISEN ABV -10F WITH WARMER TEMPS THIS                       
MRNG...AND HAVE ALLOWED WIND CHILL ADV TO EXPIRE. WHILE EXPECT                  
CONTINUED WARMING WITH WAA THIS AFTN...DROPPED HIGHS FROM ERLY                  
MRNG FCST SVRL DEG...RANGING FROM L20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH OF THE               
OHIO RIVER.                                                                     
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS FA SAT NGT. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD                
OF FNT. SINCE THE COLUMN WAS BEING SATURATED ON SAT...SHOULD SEE                
ENUF MOISTURE WITH FNT TO GET A PERIOD OF SNOW. WENT LIKELY IN THE              
NE...TAPERING DOWN TO CHC IN THE SW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR                
SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN/ NORTHEAST                      
COUNTIES....WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.                         
H5 TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY                 
NIGHT. MODELS DROP ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO TROF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.         
WITH NLY CAA FLOW...SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHSN. THERE IS A LITTLE                 
MORE ORGANIZED S/W SUN NGT...THAT WILL PASS TO THE SSW OF THE FA                
AND IT MIGHT GIVE A BETTER CHC OF ORGANIZED SNOW TO THE SW SUN                  
NGT. RIGHT NOW KEPT THE POPS AT 40 UNTIL THINGS COME A LITTLE CLEARER.          
AXIS OF H5 TROF TRIES TO WORK E ON MONDAY...BUT AND S/W DIVES INTO              
THE ERN US TROF..SO KEPT A CHC OF SHSN IN ON MONDAY.                            
MAV TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SEEMED REASONABLE...SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
CONTINENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO             
VALLEY.  MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THIS              
FLOW PATTERN...WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE TOWARD ONE MODEL OR THE                  
OTHER.                                                                          
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE NEXT WEEK AS            
STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BREAKS DOWN.  THIS BRINGS ZONAL                     
FLOW...MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER            
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING            
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY...BUT WITHOUT SUPPORT OF ITS                   
PREVIOUS RUNS...ITS ENSEMBLE...OR THE ECMWF...THIS SOLN WAS IGNORED.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE                   
STRENGTHENS...PIVOTING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO              
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND THE 15 KT                 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30 KT RANGE. AS MORE MOIST AIR                  
GETS PULLED IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL WRING OUT THE               
SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 0Z...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN CWA AND THE I-70                 
CORRIDOR. A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VFR                 
CATEGORY AROUND 3500-4KFT A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS               
A CONVERGENT FEATURE ANNOTATING STRONGER WINDS MOVES E THROUGH                  
OHVLY.                                                                          
CIGS IN SNOW TONIGHT WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS.               
TOWARDS CMH AND DAY...THE CIGS MAY DROP BREIFLY TO IFR BUT THE                  
STRONG WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THIS...AM CONTINUING TO LEAVE OUT OF THE              
FORECAST ATTM.                                                                  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BEYOND 24 HOURS...COLD AIR POOLING WILL               
HELP KEEP LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW                    
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                                                          
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                          
AVIATION...FRANKS                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
403 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, LOW                 
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW INTO REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH               
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE                     
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED                  
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...                                        
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER VORTEX ROTATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD              
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS                    
STREAMING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL                
TRENDS ON THE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST CLOUD TOP WARMING AND UPSTREAM                 
RADAR SHOWING A BROKEN PRECIP PATTERN WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS ON                  
THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES. SO THROUGH THIS EVENING...LATEST RUC13                 
AND ASSOCIATED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE                   
QUICKLY INCREASING BUT REMAINING DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TOWARD                
03Z /10PM/ THE COLUMN IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTENS UP FOR AN                    
INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE HUDSON                   
RIVER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING...TEMPS MAY FALL SLIGHTLY                
THIS EVENING BEFORE A STEADY OR SLOW RISE OCCURS WITH THE INCREASE              
IN WARM ADVECTION.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                        
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS WELL SEEN IN THE               
850MB THERMAL ADVECTION DELTA CHANGE WITH GREATER THAN 40 KNTS                  
SOUTHERLY WINDS SEEN ON THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE                 
285K SURFACE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPRESSIVE UPGLIDE WITH NET ADIABATIC                
ISENTROPIC OMEGA SIGNALING STRONG LIFT AND SNOW TO DEVELOP RATHER               
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 1-2 G/KG ON THE 285K                  
SURFACE COINCIDING WITH THE LIFT SUPPORT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES                
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS SNOW RATIOS                  
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20:1.                                                        
BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION SUNDAY                   
MORNING WITH STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 2-3 G/KG SEEN ON               
THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SLIDE EAST ACROSS                   
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE BETWEEN                  
2-4" EVEN THOUGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DECLINING THROUGH THE DAY.                 
THIS IS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW                
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL OCCUR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS. FOR NY                     
COUNTIES...SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT                  
APPROACHES CUTTING OFF FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW SO ONLY AN                    
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED /THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION/ AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS                
WAS COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT WFOS.                                             
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE                
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE               
VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST                   
SUNDAY EVENING. TRENDS FROM THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE               
MEMBERS TRACK THIS SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST LEAVING A                 
CUL-REGION ACROSS NY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE                 
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR              
THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUR ADJACENT                 
NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE                 
FURTHER INLAND FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW.                                             
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE SITUATED                
OVER NY STATE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TOUCH OFF                     
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH                      
MESOSCALE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR                    
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN                  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN              
SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC               
POPS. TUE MAX TEMPS IN M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE                 
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS TUE NT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE            
VALLEYS AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER               
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH               
GUSTY WINDS AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS. MORE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE IN                 
EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF CWA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. WED MAX               
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS IN THE HIGHER            
TERRAIN. WED NT LOW WILL BE AROUND 10 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR ZERO              
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WAA AHEAD OF               
THE SHORTWAVE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS AND M20S IN THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY NT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE                   
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                                
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS ECMWF AND GFS IN DISAGREEMENT OF             
TIMING AND SPEED. ECMWF HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY AND QUICKER TRACK WITH            
THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z/FRI. WHILE GFS HAS THE              
SFC LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z/FRI. BOTH MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP               
AFFECTING EASTERN NY BY 18Z/FRI. GFS FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK TO ECMWF             
WITH LOW ENTERING CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.              
MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE M20S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID                
TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS             
IN THE VALLEYS AND DOWN TO -10 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE                   
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WAS                
MOVING IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD JUST ABOUT COVER THE               
SKIES OF ALL THREE AIRPORTS BY SUNDOWN.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...SPREADING MAINLY LIGHT             
SNOW ACROSS THE AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT /06Z/.  BY            
08Z...ALL LOCATIONS ARE DOWN TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY...BOTTOMING OUT AT               
IFR BY DAYBREAK.                                                                
THE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z AS A COASTAL              
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AND LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH TO MAINE.                 
THIS LOW WILL DRAW MUCH OF THE ENERGY AWAY FROM THE INITIAL                     
SYSTEM...BUT WRAPAROUND FROM THE COMBINED SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS KEEPS            
A CHC OF -SHSN IN REACH.  A WELL-SHEARED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP             
BY LATE MON...PRECLUDING ANY LAKE EFFECT FROM DEVELOPING.  SURFACE              
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY...BUT LIGHT...BY WED...WITH A RETURN            
TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY UP ALONG            
THE APPALACHIANS.                                                               
OUTLOOK....                                                                     
SUN PM...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR SLGT CHC -SHSN.                              
MON...MVFR SCT -SHSN.                                                           
MON NGT-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SEVERAL RIVER GAGES HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING ICE EFFECTS...WITH MOST                
LEVELS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY...OR FALLING SLIGHTLY.                          
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK                    
WOULD BE A FEW ISOLATED FRAZIL ICE/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE                
ALBANY NWS CRITERIA FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE              
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES                
FAHRENHEIT OR LESS. THIS COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN                     
CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN                        
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER ELEVATION BASINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND                    
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO              
SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE UP JAM.                                               
COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANY                    
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO              
THICKEN. SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE                
FLUCTUATIONS OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH                 
COVERS OUR ENTIRE HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER            
CONTENT ON SUNDAY.                                                              
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.                                                     
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.                                                     
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MHD/BGM                                                              
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM...KGS                                                                 
AVIATION...ELH                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...SND/11                                                              
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO MIX DOWN TO                  
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THE STRONGER WINDS              
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z WITH THE WIND ADVISORY EXPANDED EASTWARD                
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 4 PM CST. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON           
TRACK.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH WEST COAST RIDGE WILL INTO AK              
AND TROF BRINING COLD AIR INTO SE CONUS. NEXT CLIPPER SHOWING UP                
NICELY IN H2O MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS AND HEADED TOWARD UPPER            
MIDWEST. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH TROF MOVING INTO EPAC WILL BRING              
MORE OF A MERIDIONAL TILT TO UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE MOVING MORE               
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WESTERN CANADA AND WELL CARVED OUT              
TROF FROM MO RIVER EASTWARD. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A SHARP CONTRAST TO            
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LBF CWA OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH DRY                     
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW AHEAD              
OF CLIPPER PROGESSING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ATTM AND PULLING                 
TROF/WARM FRONT FARTHER EAST. COOLER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE CLIPPER            
ALONG WITH THE USUAL STRONG WINDS...BUT LUCKILY THIS AIRMASS HAS                
BEEN MODIFIED ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE ON                    
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN TODAY               
WILL BE WINDS ASSOC WITH THIS CAA. FAIRLY STRONG LLVL WINDS MIXING              
DOWN ATTM WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS FROM VTN TO ICR AND SOME OVER 50KTS             
IN THE NOW PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS STAY STRONG THROUGH THE EALRY                 
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOME. CAA WILL BE LESSENING ALONG WITH            
PRESS GRAD AND HAVE A HARD TIME ISSUING WIND HEADLINES OVER MUCH OF             
CWA...THOUGH SOME SITES MAY CONTINUE NEAR THIS CRIT THROUGH THE                 
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SO HAVE PLACE ADV IN FOR DEUEL AND            
GARDEN COUNTIES. PRESS COUPLET STRONGEST ATTM AND COULD ALSO BE                 
REASON FOR GUSTS UP NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS NEXT              
COUPLE HOURS. VISIBLE PICS EALIER SHOWED QUICK END TO SNOWPACK                  
ACROSS WESTERN NEB ON FRIDAY WHICH NEW NAM SLOW TO PICK UP ON BUT               
BELIEVE MAV GUIDANCE TOO WARM AND HAVE USED BLEND WHICH WAS CLOSE TO            
PREV FORECAST OF MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. THERE                
LOOKS TO BE A GRADUAL AND WELCOME WARMUP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK            
AS THE RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE BREAKING DOWN ON            
WEDNESDAY. THIS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BRING               
FIRE WX CONCERN TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONTIORED                    
DAILY...ESPECIALLY FOR DEW POINT TRENDS/VERIFICATION TO MODEL AND               
GUIDANCE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST                
MOST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERN                    
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO              
ATTM AS CRITICAL NUMBERS LOOK TO BE OUT OF REACH ATTM...BUT ONLY                
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS OF TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINTS WILL PUSH THIS INTO             
THE HEADLINE TERRITORY...AND WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON WED THIS               
MAY BE THE DAY TO WATCH.                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
    LOW CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND NORTH            
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BEFORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODEL IS SHOWING             
SOME HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 900MB IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTH            
AND EAST OF A VTN-BBW LINE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF INSTRUMENT            
CEILINGS IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SHOWS THE             
HIGHER RH EAST OF ONL. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE LOW                    
CEILINGS...SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF IT IN THE TERMINAL               
FORECASTS FOR VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE.                                       
    WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 20-30 KTS AND GUSTY...SOME WIND                
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY AROUND WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...                 
ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED AIRCRAFT. AT LBF...IT WILL                 
AFFECT RUNWAY CONFIGURATION...BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE SERIOUS              
CROSS-WIND EFFECTS.                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
    WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA             
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME VOLATILE FIRE            
CONDITIONS. IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY             
TO BE LESS THAT 20 PERCENT...AND WIND MAY REACH CRITERIA SUNDAY                 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO BE AT ITS               
LOWEST OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT TUESDAY. THEREFORE...SINCE THE WIND AND              
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA DO NOT APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER...WE WILL             
NOT HAVE ANY FIRE HEADLINES. WE ARE LOOKING AT A MENTION OF THE DRY             
CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THOUGH.                             
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS 
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KECK                                                                   
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...13                                                        
AVIATION...KECK                                                                 
</pre> ne