000
FGUS74 KSHV 040132
ESFSHV
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-
043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-037-063-
067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459-
499-042330-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR MAY/SPRING INFORMATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE 
REGION...

MOST OF THE MONTH OF MAY HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE 
REGION...AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS 
REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST REGION THROUGH 
MUCH OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS 
DID BRING A LITTLE RELIEF TO THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF 
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, WHERE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL. 
ELSEWHERE, VERY LITTLE RAINFALL FELL ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS, AND 
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. MAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME ONE TO THREE 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS 
(CLARKSVILLE TO LONGVIEW LINE)...TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS DEEP EAST 
TEXAS (LUFKIN) AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA (SHREVEPORT). 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND 
PORTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, WITH FOUR TO SIX INCH AMOUNTS  
FOUND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE TOTALS 
WERE SOME TWO TO FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH, DURING A TIME 
WHERE MUCH OF THE SPRING RAINS FALL, AND NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL IS AT 
ITS HIGHEST. THE LACK OF RAINFALL CAN BE TRACED BACK TO LATE MARCH, 
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SPRINGTIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOME THREE TO SIX 
INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING 
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND THE EASTERN 
SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT, THE U.S. DROUGHT 
MONITOR HAS RECLASSIFIED THOSE AREAS WEST OF A NASHVILLE, ARKANSAS...TO 
MAGNOLIA...TO MINDEN, LOUISIANA...TO HEMPHILL, TEXAS LINE, TO MODERATE 
DROUGHT (D1) STATUS AS OF ITS MAY 23RD/30TH UPDATE. ABNORMALLY DRY 
CONDITIONS (D0) REMAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND 
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS UPDATED EVERY 
THURSDAY MORNING, AND CAN BE VIEWED AT: 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML. 

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAY RAINFALL TOTALS AND THEIR DEPARTURES, AS WELL 
AS THE SPRINGTIME AND YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL/DEPARTURES THROUGH MAY 31ST 
FOR SELECTED CITIES IN THE FOUR STATE REGION:

LOCATION       MAY:   DEPARTURE:   % NORMAL (MONTH):   YEAR:   DEPARTURE:    
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHREVEPORT LA  1.21    -4.04        23%                18.76   -3.01               
  REMARKS: 13TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1872)   

MONROE LA      5.69    +0.22        104%               28.64   +3.07               
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1930

TEXARKANA AR   2.86    -1.42        67%                19.35   +0.14               
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1892

LUFKIN TX      1.25    -4.04        24%                15.23   -4.34               
  REMARKS: 7TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1948)

TYLER TX       2.45    -2.01        55%                16.26   -2.93               
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1898

LONGVIEW TX    0.79    -4.27        16%                14.37   -6.55               
  REMARKS: 3RD DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1902)

EL DORADO AR   1.76    -3.73        32%                16.90   -7.46                
  REMARKS: 12TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1892)

DEQUEEN AR     2.71    -3.44        44%                20.38   -3.03               
  REMARKS: 11TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1902)

MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:

BROKEN BOW, OK 2.48    -4.13        38%                20.22   -3.08
IDABEL, OK     3.48    -2.46        59%                18.87   -2.65
MT. HERMAN, OK 3.50    -3.11        53%                21.22   -2.08
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


LOCATION       SPRING: DEPARTURE:  % NORMAL:        
--------------------------------------------
SHREVEPORT LA  8.52    -5.33        62%
  REMARKS: 24TH DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD (SINCE 1872)

MONROE LA     15.21    -0.56        96%
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1930

TEXARKANA AR  11.71    -0.62        95%
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1892

LUFKIN TX      5.23    -6.72        44%
  REMARKS: 3RD DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD

TYLER TX       8.80    -3.32        73%
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1898
 
LONGVIEW TX    7.13    -6.05        54%
  REMARKS: 11TH DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD

EL DORADO AR   8.34    -6.85        55%
  REMARKS: 8TH DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD
 
DEQUEEN AR    14.82    -1.35        91%
  REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1902

MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:

BROKEN BOW, OK 14.43    -1.93       88%   
IDABEL, OK     12.47    -2.29       84%
MT. HERMAN, OK 16.06    -0.30       98% 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

DESPITE THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING APRIL AND MAY...AREA LAKES 
AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL STAGES. ON 
THE OTHER HAND...STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ON RIVERS AND BAYOUS CURRENTLY 
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. FORTUNATELY, THE HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED IN MID MARCH 
AND AGAIN IN LATE APRIL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A CUSHION AGAINST WORSENING 
WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS, AND HAS KEPT RESERVOIRS NEARLY STEADY.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

NO BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTH LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS. 
HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED, AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO 
WARM INTO THE MID 90S LATER THIS WEEK, FUELS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DRY 
OUT, THUS PROMOTING THE IGNITION/SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. BURN BANS MAY BE ADDED 
IN THE COMING WEEKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
NOT FALL SOON.  


RESTRICTIONS...

NO WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT.


AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

NO SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER, SHOULD TIMELY RAINFALL NOT RETURN BY THE SECOND WEEK OR 
SO OF JUNE, IMPACTS WILL BE FELT AGRICULTURALLY, AS JUNE THROUGH 
SEPTEMBER ARE THE HOTTEST/DRIEST TIMES OF THE YEAR, WHERE VERY HIGH 
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES OCCUR.


OUTLOOK...

NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW PRESENT IN THE NINA 3.4 REGION OF THE 
PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH BODES WELL FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION, AS EQUAL 
CHANCES FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL, NORMAL, AND ABOVE NORMAL 
RAINFALL, AS NOTED IN THE SUMMER OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MID MAY FROM THE 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE 
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY 
PROVIDE MINIMAL RELIEF IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL. UNFORTUNATELY, A STRONG 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND 
INTO THE PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK, AND WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS/FOUR STATE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES 
FOR THE NEAR TERM, WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 
AUGUST. 

$$

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