AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
321 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
...MAIN CONCERN IS "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS I-25 CORRIDOR/MOUNTAINS/HIGH             
VALLEYS AND "WET" STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH              
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...                                      
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES DID            
SHOW A FRAGMENTED 500-300MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD               
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING AND              
EARLY AFTERNOON. I WAS THINKING...AND STILL...THIS MIGHT BE THE                 
TRIGGER FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.                 
REGIONAL RADAR DID SHOW THE FIRST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING              
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FUEL HAS BEEN "MIXING OUT" WITH SURFACE DEW            
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND TEEN ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR PUEBLO TO             
RATON MESA AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. DEW POINTS IN THE             
40S TO LOWER 50S WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE              
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR                      
ALOFT...THESE DEW POINTS MAY TANK...TOO.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES                  
PRETTY WARM...WELL IN THE 90S...APPROACHING 100F...BELOW 6K FT MSL.             
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...I HAVE DEFINITELY TRIMMED BACK             
POPS/WX ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH                   
VALLEYS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE               
CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG WITH ENOUGH HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THERE IS            
STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRIMARY STORM TYPE                
SHOULD BE PULSE DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR PUB-RATON MESA              
AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS.  A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE                   
MARGINAL SEVERE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE TO THE FAR             
SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS GIVEN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE                 
ENERGY IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY ALONG THE I-25                    
CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS...ISOLATED "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL BE THE RULE GIVEN VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SUB-CLOUD                
LAYER PER THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING DATA...ESPECIALLY WITH LCL            
HEIGHTS ABOUT 2K-4K FT HIGHER THAN THE FREEZING LEVEL AND A VERY                
UNSTABLE AND "DRY" SUB-CLOUD LAYER. PRIMARILY LOOKING AT CLOUD TO               
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...AND VERY LITTLE            
OR NO RAINFALL. COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...SO NO RED FLAG WILL             
BE ISSUED FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT "DRY THUNDERSTORMS" WILL BE                   
MENTIONED IN THE FWF TEXT PRODUCT.                                              
FRIDAY...A CHALLENGING DAY. MODELS STILL SUGGEST A COLD FRONT TO                
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO PRIMARILY DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON. TRYING TO TIME THESE BOUNDARIES ARE QUITE THE                        
CHALLENGE...AS SOMETIMES THEY ARE FASTER. I REALLY DON`T SEE ANY                
SIGNALS OF A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SO               
WILL PLAN ON THE FRONT "OOZING" INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO              
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY               
WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...VERY            
LOW DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE                  
40S/50S WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT. GENERALLY...ALONG THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTH AND WESTWARD...THERE IS VERY LITTLE                  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY A "DRY" THUNDERSTORM OR "VIRGA              
SHOWER BOMBS" THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS               
AGAIN. AGAIN...THINK THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE IS LOW ISOLATED AT                  
BEST...SO NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT WILL MENTION            
"DRY" THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FWF AND DISCUSSION FOR THESE AREAS. AHEAD            
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT...PROBABLY         
90S TO AROUND 100F AGAIN. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE OF            
A "WET" THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY                        
STRONG-SEVERE. SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL BE 1K-2.5K J/KG WITH                    
SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C TO -6C...WHICH CONVECTIVE ARE               
VERY RESPECTABLE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE ENERGY.                  
ASSUMING THE NAM-WRF IS CORRECT WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST             
OF 50S DEW POINTS BEING SHOVED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.                
THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND BEHIND THE                   
FRONT...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE A              
BREAK-THROUGH TO FREE CONVECTION. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE               
30-50KTS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. IT MAY BE A MIX OF                   
ORDINARY...MULTICELLULAR...AND SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS SLOW OR                          
STATIONARY...THEN A BRIEF TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE              
PROBABILITY IS PRETTY LOW. METZE                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                  
...MAIN CHALLENGE IS STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SATURDAY...              
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH             
THE REGION BY MID EVENING FRIDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING ON THE            
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY.  NAM AND GFS HAS                    
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  WITH MODEST                 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BULK SHEARS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30                 
KNOTS WHICH IS IN THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.             
HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.  MODEL             
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AROUND 650 MB THOUGH THE MORNING.  IN THE                  
AFTERNOON THE CAP WEAKENS IN THE MODELS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE RESULT            
OF THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES GETTING INITIATED.  GFS AND NAM HAVE A                
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...AND THE                 
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION.            
DECIDED NOT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS                      
TIME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN                    
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.  CAP WOULD BE WEAKER IN THESE             
LOCATIONS...AND POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO            
INCREASE INSTABILITY.  MODEL CAPE FIELDS SUGGEST A SIMILAR PATTERN              
FOR CONVECTION. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW                 
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL TEND TO DRY OUT THE                       
ATMOSPHERE. KEPT 10 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR               
A FEW MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS.                                                 
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS...FLOW ALOFT              
WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHERLY.  LOWER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY WITH              
DECREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS.  WITH WEAK HIGH              
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE EAST...DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE POPS                      
ENTIRELY.  SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK              
UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST                 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  IN THE REMAINING            
AREAS...GFS AND EC CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK MONSOON LIKE PLUME OF               
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN COLORADO.  WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED              
POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.                                      
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH                 
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR GFS SUGGESTING WEAK LEE TROUGH NEAR THE KANSAS               
BORDER.  EC AND GFS HAVE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH            
FROM MEXICO.  IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMER...AND HAVE A BROAD BRUSH SUMMER              
FORECAST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES               
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOISTURE IN MONSOON PLUMES TYPICALLY ARE MODEST            
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION               
FROM CONVECTION. --PGW--                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FOR ALL FORECAST TAF...ISOLATED SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL                
LEAD TO VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS OF 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS UP            
TO 45KTS AT TIMES. METZE                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/06                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
941 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA INDICATE MID LEVEL                  
MOISTURE CREEPING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO             
DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND                  
CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT                     
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST               
UTAH. THIS WAVE SHOULD MIX OUT THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR               
500MB ON THE GJT SOUNDING AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS            
THE SOUTH. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND SKY GRIDS IN MORNING                
UPDATE...OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...               
TWO MINOR FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY...ONE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND THE            
OTHER OVER ARIZONA.  SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN             
REGION DRAGS A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN.  THIS IS             
THE TIME OF YEAR COOL FRONTS STRUGGLE TO PENETRATE INTO OUR FORECAST            
AREA.  THIS IS NO EXCEPTION AS THE SHORT WAVE DOES NOT HAVE A DIGGING           
JET ON THE BACK SIDE UNTIL IT REACHES THE NRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...THE            
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE SHALLOW COOL FRONT DOES MOVE SOUTH OF               
THE COLORADO AND WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING.  THIS MAY NOT HAVE                
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON               
BREEZES AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NRN VALLEYS.                               
WEAK CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST IS SENDING             
A STREAM OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SRN AND ERN ARIZONA.  LOW LEVELS            
REMAIN DRY BUT SUFFICIENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED               
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS.  THE GFS AND            
SREF MODEL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR              
OVER SW COLORADO.  THIS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS ISOLATED NOCTURNAL              
THUNDER OVER MONTEZUMA COUNTY FROM ARIZONAS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOT            
UNUSUAL.                                                                        
ON FRIDAY...DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED WEST-EAST OVER SRN                
UTAH AND SRN COLORADO.  NORTH OF THIS AXIS...THE PACIFIC HIGH                   
CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN HAS A TENDENCY TO CAP CONVECTIVE              
POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MARGINAL...BUT A FEW STORMS                  
WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST SLOPE.                     
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                       
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THESE PERIODS WITH SOME              
UNCERTAIN PROMISE OF INCREASED MOISTURE BY MID NEXT WEEK.                       
SATURDAY: WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...FROM EL PASO TO THE 4-              
CORNERS TO BOISE...A WARM NW FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED              
FOR NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.                                        
SUNDAY-MONDAY: RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES OVERHEAD AS THE WEST-COAST                 
TROUGH GETS ACTIVE. THIS ADD A FEW DEGREES TO ALREADY HOT                       
AFTERNOONS. A STRENGTHENED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL                  
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS ALOFT VERY LIGHT WITH SFC WINDS              
TERRAIN DOMINATED.                                                              
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: RIDGE GETS SQUASHED JUST A BIT AS THE WEST-COAST              
TROUGH EJECTS ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. RESULTING SW FLOW                  
PROMISES SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE FAVORING THE SOUTHERN                    
MOUNTAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES             
POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT DID NOT FULLY FOLLOW MEX TREND                  
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR PREVAILS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH                  
TERRAIN.  MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...BUT A FEW STORMS             
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO.             
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS            
WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE HIGH MOUNTAINS SNOWPACK WITH RUNOFF            
AND RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GRADUAL DOWNWARD             
TREND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE EMERGENCY MANAGER WENT AHEAD AND             
CANCELLED THE REMAINING FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE EAGLE RIVER BELOW                
GYPSUM. ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE DECREASING FLOWS REMAIN COLD...               
SWIFT...AND TURBULENT AND CAUTION IS URGED WHEN AROUND RIVERS AND               
STREAMS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND FLOOD INFORMATION AT            
WEATHER.GOV/GJT                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.........TAL                                                              
SHORT TERM.....PF                                                               
LONG TERM......JOE                                                              
AVIATION.......PF                                                               
HYDROLOGY......TAL                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
156 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT              
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE                
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING. A               
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING              
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER MORE                   
INCLEMENT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPS AND                         
DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING METMOS VALUES QUITE NICELY                
THUS FAR THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE              
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS OHIO...WHICH HAS CLOUD TOPS COOL                 
CLOSE TO -70 C OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER WESTERN OHIO. MUCH OF               
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CURVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS THE ACTIVITY             
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE THICKNESS PATTERN. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST             
NAM12 AND RUC13 DATA SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ELEVATED T-STORM                   
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO NORTH OF THIS MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN                        
ONTARIO...AND THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET            
EVIDENT ON THE KDTX AND KBUF 00Z SOUNDINGS. THIS LOOSELY ORGANIZED              
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE NEW YORK STATE FOR THE SECOND HALF            
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND COULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE WESTERN ZONES PRIOR              
TO SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR            
THIS. HAVE KEPT MINS ALONE...AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOWS SEEM TO BE            
IN LINE WITH LATEST STATISTICAL PROG NUMBERS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...                          
SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THUR. THE                
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL INEVITABLY BE HOW THE MCV              
EVOLVES. IF A WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD FORMS...THIS COULD STABILIZE               
THE ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL                   
MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF ALBANY...WITH HIGH CHANCE NORTHWARD.               
BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A CONVECTIVE                
COMPLEX ASSOC WITH THE MCV TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN              
AREAS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THUR AFTERNOON             
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL.                    
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DE-STABILIZATION               
CAN OCCUR AFTER THE INITIAL MCV OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS FEATURE             
MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE TO               
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME             
FRAME TO ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG. SHOULD THIS               
OCCUR...OTHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR STORMS TO BECOME                  
SEVERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE                       
DAY...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHICH                 
WOULD SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS.                 
ALSO...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS EVEN IN A WEAKENED                
STATE MAY BE A FACTOR AND PROMOTE FORCING...AS WELL AS A HINT OF A              
SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH               
INSTABILITY CAN BUILD THOUGH. SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK...AND WILL            
MENTION THREAT IN HWO.                                                          
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...DUE TO LOSS OF               
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WILL KEEP                   
FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT THUR THROUGH FRI FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM               
HINTING AT A WEAK BOUNDARY POSSIBLE GENERATING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLD STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE IT                
WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AIR MASS IN WAKE OF THURSDAY/S SYSTEM EVEN              
WARMER...AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCING DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL IN                
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.                                                   
YET MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS            
A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SLOWER MOVING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE             
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING                 
EARLY SAT MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS              
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH            
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR...MAINLY FROM            
ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS IT SEEMS NOW. TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED AS                     
WELL...WITH READINGS POSSIBLY ENDING UP EITHER COOLER OR WARMER THAN            
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
QUITE AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR                   
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN             
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION                
WHILE A DEEP CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT                 
LAKES. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR                   
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT                  
AMOUNT OF UNI-DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/...BIGGEST            
THREAT WITH CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAINFALL. GEFS PWATS              
LOOKS TO BE 1-2 STDS ABOVE NORMAL...AND ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER            
(FRZ LEVEL AROUND 14000 FT)...COULD EXPECT SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL             
RATES. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY                  
NIGHT...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN FROM LIKELY DOWN TO CHC AFTER 00Z             
MONDAY.                                                                         
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS REGARDING THE                
PATTERN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER WITH             
LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES                    
AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKES                 
RIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE                    
CUTOFF...IT STILL KEEP A RATHER LARGE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE                   
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE               
GENERALLY GONE WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE ECMWF IDEA. CAN               
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DAYTIME            
HEATING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM              
OUT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES C ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT            
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL ON MONDAY WITH UPPER 60S             
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH MAX               
TEMPS SHOULD IMPROVE SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY DURING THE WEEK AS                
HEIGHTS SLOWLY IMPROVE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
ID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A THERMAL TROUGH               
AND A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER ERN OH AND WRN PA EARLY THIS             
MORNING.  OTHER SHOWERS EAST OF A WARM FRONT OVER ERN MI CONTINUE TO            
DEVELOP OVER WRN-CNTRL NY.  SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR RADIATIONAL MIST IS            
LIKELY AT KGFL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING.  WE INCLUDED            
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR MIST THERE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD             
PREVAIL UNTIL 1400-1600 UTC...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE DUE TO THE                
WARM AIR ADVECTION.                                                             
WE INCLUDED GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLD-SCT               
IFR CIGS/VSBYS.  FOR NOW...WE KEPT IT MVFR WITH CB/S WITH ANY                   
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  SOME SCT CONVECTION MAY FIRE IN THE                       
AFTERNOON...AND WE INCLUDED VCSH/S AND CBS FOR NOW.  A MIXTURE OF               
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 0000 UTC FRI...WHEN THE ERN NY             
TERMINALS GET INTO A WARM SECTOR.                                               
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 20            
KTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME VRB AT 4-7 KTS AFTER 0000 UTC.                       
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI...VFR...ISOLD PM -SHRA/TSRA KALB SOUTH.                                     
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.                                              
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR...CHC SHRAS/TSRAS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A WARM FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE                
SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS IMPACTING POORLY DRAINED AREAS...AND SMALL                 
STREAMS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.             
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK             
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...PROVIDING A             
CONSTANT FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT               
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM RIVERS               
SHOULD BE FINE...BUT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH              
TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME             
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE MULTI DAY               
EPISODE. RURAL/URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE                  
MONITORED WITH REPEATED CONVECTION IN SIMILAR AREAS.                            
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JPV                                                                  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
SHORT TERM...JPV                                                                
LONG TERM...FRUGIS                                                              
AVIATION...WASULA                                                               
HYDROLOGY...NAS                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1116 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...                
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS IS THE REGION                  
WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED...                 
NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL                
HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BASED ON EVENTS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.               
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED WINDS UPWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC                    
WATERS...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND ADDED SCEC HEADLINE                
TO THESE MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS BISCAYNE BAY. ALL UPDATED                      
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                                
70/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                     
MORNING AVIATION...                                                             
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY                    
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT                  
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT AFP TAF SITE. THE EASTERLY                 
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF              
SITES TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT APF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SO              
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND VCTS FOR APF TAF              
SITE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.                                                       
THE SKIES AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE               
EAST COAST TAF SITES AND APF TAF SITE. WILL AMEND THE APF TAF                   
SITE AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED               
TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.                                                      
AVIATION...54/BNB                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT                    
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA                   
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS                       
CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF              
AND OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL                 
WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION              
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE                 
CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.                                            
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE                
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE                 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH FLORIDA              
PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE EAST TO EAST               
SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR                  
SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD                  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWATS               
SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO ISOLATED                   
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON                     
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND               
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
MARINE...                                                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL                 
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL                   
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY              
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS              
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL              
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  90  77 / 50 30 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  90  80 / 40 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 / 40 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 50 20 30 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...70/DD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
731 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.MORNING AVIATION...                                                            
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS             
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL                    
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT AFP TAF SITE. THE EASTERLY WIND                 
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF                   
SITES TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT APF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SO              
WILL SHOW VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AND VCTS FOR APF TAF              
SITE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z.                                                       
THE SKIES AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE               
EAST COAST TAF SITES AND APF TAF SITE. WILL ADMEND THE APF TAF                  
SITE AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE THUNDESTORMS HAVE STARTED                
TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...54/BNB                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT                    
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA                   
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES             
TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE           
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL             
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA                
IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.                                                              
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE                
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE                 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH                      
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY                      
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE                  
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN              
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND                
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT              
PWATS SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO                      
ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH                      
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN                  
INTERIOR AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL                 
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THE               
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE              
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS                  
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL              
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                       
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  77 / 30 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 / 30 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 40 20 30 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...60/BD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND THE RECENT                    
GUIDANCE INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA                   
PENINSULA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES             
TO COME ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE           
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL             
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF CUBA                
IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH AND ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.                                                              
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY IN THE                
SHORT TERM...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND                   
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE                 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTH                      
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...ONLY                      
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE                  
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE WESTERN              
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND                
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT              
PWATS SHOULD BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO                      
ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE EACH                      
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN                  
INTERIOR AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL                 
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THE               
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE              
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS                  
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WILL              
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  77 / 30 20 20 10                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 / 30 20 20 10                                   
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 / 20 20 20 10                                   
NAPLES           91  74  93  75 / 40 20 30 10                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...60/BD                                                               
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
251 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY-TODAY...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY TAFB VICINITY             
EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD IN                    
TRADE WIND BELT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH AXIS                 
JUST NORTH OF CANAVERAL WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTHWARD AS TROUGH              
WEAKENS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING                
LIGHT ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW AND KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MOIST. WATER                
VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF                  
PRODUCING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS THE FLORIDA                  
PENINSULA.                                                                      
THIS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW REGIME FAVORS NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION ALONG            
THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON STORMS SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST               
COAST.  THERE HAS BEEN JUST A LITTLE CONVECTION AROUND GRAND BAHAMA             
EARLY THIS MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED COASTAL POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM               
OUR CURRENT 60-70 PERCENT VALUES. THE LATEST MOS POPS ARE ONLY                  
AROUND 40 PERCENT AREAWIDE. THIS SEEMS TOO LOW FOR THE INTERIOR                 
SINCE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE COOL (MINUS                  
9-10 DEGREES AT 500 MB). NEVERTHELESS...WILL ONLY GO A LITTLE                   
ABOVE MOS POPS FOR THE INTERIOR.                                                
THINK THAT THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL SHIFT FURTHER               
WEST TODAY AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES ACROSS THE PENINSULA A               
LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG-SEVERE                
STORMS SHOULD BE IN THE FAR INTERIOR NORTHWEST.                                 
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION             
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE LOW AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.  EXPECT EVENING            
CONVECTION WILL MAINLY SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEREFORE               
WILL ONLY CARRY AN AREAWIDE 20 PERCENT POP.                                     
THU-TUE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC            
(SARGASSO SEA) ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON              
THURSDAY DROPS DOWN TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND REMAINS SOUTH OF             
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS                 
THE DEEP SOUTH. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF               
THE SOUTHWEST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD AND ONSHORE SOUTH OF                
THE CAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST/OFFSHORE                  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW PINNING STORMS TO THE                 
EAST COAST FEEL THAT A 30 POP EVENING POP MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE              
COASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY/TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE                     
STOCK/STANDARD 20 PERCENT/ISOLATED EARLY EVENING STORMS. DAYTIME                
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THEIR CLIMO VALUES UPPER 80S/LOWER               
90S BEFORE SKIES CLOUD OVER WITH MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS FROM THE                  
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT THAT SEA BREEZE WILL            
PUSH INLAND A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE SHORT TEMPO GROUPS FOR INLAND                 
TERMINALS BUT STRONGEST STORMS THAT OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION OF                 
EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS...                   
EXCEPT MAYBE FOR KLEE. HAVE SHORT PROB30 GROUPS DURING THE EARLY                
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...BUT AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY...THINK THAT               
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DELAY HEATING SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTIVE                      
INITIATION SHOULD BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THROUGH TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE            
FLOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN THE NORTH WHERE WINDS              
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 5 KNOTS.  STILL SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE 3 FEET             
OR LESS.  EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH            
BUT COVERAGE NOT MORE THAN SCATTERED.                                           
THU-SUN...WITH SURFACE-700MB RIDGE AXIS LYING OVER THE AREA EXPECT              
LIGHT WINDS WITH A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD             
BE NO MORE THAN 4 FEET OFFSHORE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  91  71  88  72 /  30  20  50  20                                           
MCO  91  74  91  73 /  50  20  50  20                                           
MLB  89  75  89  73 /  30  20  40  20                                           
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  30  20  40  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY                                                   
LONG TERM....WIMMER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                              
RATHER COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE              
FEATURES ON THE MAP. DECAYING MCS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                    
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHILE ANOTHER MATURE MCS ROLLS ACROSS CENTRAL                
IOWA. MEANWHILE...LEFTOVER MCV WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF KBMI...                
WITH A BOUNDARY ARCING JUST WEST OF KCMI DOWN TO NEAR KTAZ.                     
WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AHEAD OF THE              
MCV AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY...CANNOT OUTRULE SCATTERED CONVECTION                
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.                    
MCS OVER IOWA SEEMS LIKELY TO TAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH LIKE THE                 
PREVIOUS MCS DID...PERHAPS JUST GRAZING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES DISTINCT BUBBLE OF STABLE                
AIR OVER ILLINOIS...WHILE INSTABILITY AXIS ARCS FROM NORTHWESTERN               
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE                        
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IOWA MCS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY TEND TO DRIFT ESE                
WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE                    
INSTABILITY AXIS... WHILE DECAYING SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE                   
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STABLE BUBBLE REGION.                                       
RESHAPED THE POP FORECAST CONSIDERING THESE FEATURES. ALSO COOLED               
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST CONSIDERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD                
COVER FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST.                                              
WILL HAVE NEW ZONES AND FRESH GRIDS OUT AROUND 11 AM.                           
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                              
MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IN SOMETHING OF A DEAD ZONE BETWEEN                      
SOUTHWARD SURGING MCS ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...                 
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING INVOF MCV AND TRAILING                   
BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE KCMI                
WHICH COULD SEE VCTS OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.                                   
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                               
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING MCS/MCV ACTIVITY VERY WELL DURING                 
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WHICH MAKES THIS                
FORECAST TRICKIER THAN NORMAL. CURRENT MCS/MCV OVER NE MO/SE IA                 
AND INTO CENTRAL IL WAS NOT DEPICTED BY MODELS. FORECAST CONCERN IS             
CONVECTION CHANCES AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SAT.                
RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE SHOWS A MCS/MCV OVER NE MO/SE IA AND                 
INTO CENTRAL IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ALONG I-55 WITH A               
THUNDERSTORM AS FAR EAST AS NORTHERN FORD COUNTY AND MOVING ESE.                
SEVERE WX THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE               
STRONGER LINE OF STORMS WAS PLOWING SOUTH TOWARD I-70 IN CENTRAL                
MO. STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE IL              
RIVER AND JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD. 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS                 
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL WI...NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL                 
NEBRASKA. MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPS WERE              
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE                  
RIDGE WAS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WHILE UPPER LEVEL                 
LOW/TROF OVER CANADA. SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER NW IL INTO MO WHERE              
MCS/MCV WAS. ANOTHER ONE WAS OVER OHIO AND YET ANOTHER OVER THE                 
DAKOTAS.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
CONVECTION FROM MCS TO WEAKEN DURING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL IL               
LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY MORNING. BUT MCV FROM THIS MCS WILL DRIFT                 
INTO EASTERN/NE IL AND INDIANA AND WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED                       
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS SO KEPT 30 TO 40%                
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY IN              
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH LOWER 90S IN SE IL WHERE MORE                  
SUNSHINE EXPECTED LIKE YESTERDAY. HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE                   
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER                    
IA/NORTHERN IL AND MOVE ESE AND GOOD CHANCE IT WILL AFFECT AREAS                
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS                   
NORTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS LINE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS AND                   
FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.                                  
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NW OF                
I-55 AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES/DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND                    
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SE INTO NW IL BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. HIGHS                  
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 90S SE IL AND HUMID WITH                      
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. LIKELY CHANCE OF CONVECTION               
FRI NIGHT NW OF I-70. SPC HAS IL IN SLIGHT RISK FRI NIGHT WHILE                 
GREAT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL/NW IL ALONG AND NW OF A                
DANVILLE TO TAYLORVILLE LINE. HAVE FRONT COLLIDING WITH A VERY                  
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES PEAKING FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. COULD              
BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL/WINDS FRI NIGHT ESPECIALLY FRI EVENING                
WITH TORNADO THREAT MORE OVER NORTHERN IL WHERE MORE FAVORABLE                  
STRONGER WIND FIELDS. COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND THRU SE IL SAT. BEST CHANCES OF                    
CONVECTION SHIFT INTO EASTERN/SE IL SAT WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK               
OF SEVERE. SHOWERS TO END OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON.               
A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT RATHER HUMID YET WITH              
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.                                                           
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                   
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
THIS WEEKEND AND OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS                  
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CENTRAL IL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST              
MON/TUE WITH DRY WX EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LESS HUMID AIR              
MASS. COOLED HIGHS A BIT THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS MEX/ECMWF                  
HIGHS IN THE 70S SUN/MON. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY TUE/WED AS                
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                        
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
855 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE OF PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                
WILL BE ISSUING AN EVENING UPDATE OF ZFP PACKAGE.  ONE CHG WILL BE              
TO UP DEW POINTS AS PER OBS AND FOLLOW WITH SLIGHT INCR IN FCST                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  LGT WSWLY SFC FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS AT OR                
JUST ABOVE 70 DEG TO FILTER INTO WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF FA.                    
OF GREATER CONCERN THOUGH...ARE POPS/WX.  WILL BE ADJUSTING                     
OVERNIGHT POPS TO CURRENT RADAR/SATLT TRENDS.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME             
HEATING...THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS OVR FA HAS DIMINISHED.                          
HOWEVER...TSTM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVR IA.  LLVL WIND FIELD             
OVR NRN IL/NWRN IND IS FCST TO RMN UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DVLPMT             
INTO FA AS WINDS AOB H85 ARE FCST TO RMN LGT WNWLY OVERNIGHT...THEN             
BEGIN TO BACK INTO SW ON THUR.  ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES ARE NOT                  
CONDUCIVE TO MCS PROPAGATING FWD ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IND                         
OVERNIGHT...AMS REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AND EXPECT SOME DISCRETE STMS            
TO FIRE ESEWD OF STNRY/BACKBUILDING COMPLEX OVR IA.  THEREFORE HAVE             
BUMPED UP POPS OVR SWRN PORTION OF FA FOR OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP CHC             
POPS RMNDR ARE FOR PRE DAWN HRS.                                                
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
247 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW                 
DAYS. FAIRLY STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MOVING THROUGH                    
CHICAGO AREA ATTM. EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A               
LOT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS SEVERELY LIMITED INSOLATION AND                    
DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN IL. BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND                     
INSTABILITY IS WELL SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL IN                  
BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR SE              
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY MUCH               
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NAM INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER IA               
AND MOVING INTO N AND CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT OR THU MORNING.                   
SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MOVING INTO NW                
IA ATTM...SO NAM SEEMS REASONABLE. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFOCUS                 
FROM NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT THIS                  
CONVECTION. MCS MAY BE DIMINISHING DIURNALLY AS IT GET INTO IL THU              
MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR OVERNIGHT BUT CUT BACK TO              
30-40 PERCENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN S AND W PART OF FORECAST                   
AREA. BEYOND THU MORNING THINGS BECOME MURKY. PATTERN CONTINUES                 
THU...THU NIGHT...AND FRI WITH VERY WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS IN                   
PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 70 SO THIS IS SOME OF THE JUCIEST               
AIR OF THE SEASON. UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SO SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG OVER                  
THIS AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS              
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR              
TRAINING STORMS. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING                 
EXISTS. THE QUESTION IS WHERE MCS BOUNDARIES AND SMALL SCALE SHORT              
WAVES WILL BE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF                         
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THU THROUGH FRI..BUT WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY                 
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                        
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CAN BORDER AND WILL                     
EVENTUALLY FORM CUT OFF LOW OVER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE                  
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY                       
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS                 
UPPER LOW WOBBLES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PERIODS OF SHOWERY                
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY              
A DRY AND MILD PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.                                         
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
658 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 00Z TAFS...FEW CHANGES FROM 18Z FORECAST THINKING WITH                      
CONVECTIVE TRENDS/PROBABILITIES MAIN QUESTION NEXT 24 HOURS.                    
SHORT WAVE/MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF TO THE               
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENCE                  
ACROSS FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A FEW ACARS            
ASCENT/DECENT SOUNDINGS FROM KORD APPEARS TO BE A WARM BULGE AROUND             
800 HPA CAPPING OTHERWISE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE VIS               
SATELLITE EVIDENCE OF LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING/EARLY                   
AFTERNOON MCS REMNANTS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...CONVECTION DEVELOPING             
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL                 
SHORT WAVE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                   
WESTERN PART OF THE HAWKEYE STATE. SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS DATA                    
INDICATES IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AT THIS             
HOUR...WITH 4000-5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTH OF I/80 CORRIDOR.                    
PROFILER WINDS SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FARTHER WEST              
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NEBRASKA...WITH MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT               
FARTHER NORTH/EAST. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FROM AROUND               
KDSM SOUTHWEST/WEST TOWARD KOMA VCNTY...WHILE AREA OF LIKELY MORE               
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BEST LOW               
LEVEL JET/FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NEB/SDAK/WESTERN IA WITH            
MCS PROPAGATION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP THIS MAIN                
AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.                            
HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK SUPPORT FARTHER NORTH...NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE            
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY STILL ALLOW SOME WEAK                  
CONVECTION/REMAINS OF NORTHERN IA ACTIVITY TO ENCROACH ON FORECAST              
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO OUR            
WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT            
VCSH MENTION AFTER ABOUT 09Z.                                                   
MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE                 
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT                
SAGGING ACROSS IL/WI BORDER REGION DURING AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER                
FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT               
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3500 J/KG               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. GFS/NGM INDICATE COMBINATION                 
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE MAY SAG ACROSS CHI AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY              
BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NAM KEEPS FRONT OFF            
TO THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z FRI. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS             
TIME...THOUGH HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PROB30 FOR TSRA THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON BASED ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/VERY WEAK CAP.                      
AS FOR WINDS...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD LOSE              
GUSTINESS AND BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY                
LAYER DECOUPLES. WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES                        
THURSDAY...PERHAPS BACKING MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN                   
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OVER PLAINS. SOME               
QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT LOCATION OF WEAK COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH             
SETTLES NEARBY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR IT TO COMBINE              
WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN                 
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING FOR KORD/KMDW...THOUGH            
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.                                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
200 PM...OVERALL FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LARGE HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND                     
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE                       
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
QUEBEC THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS                 
THE LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND               
VRB ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW                  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                   
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT REMAINS OVER                 
THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A                   
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES                  
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG AT                 
THIS POINT. CMS                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
658 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
247 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW                 
DAYS. FAIRLY STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MOVING THROUGH                    
CHICAGO AREA ATTM. EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A               
LOT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS SEVERELY LIMITED INSOLATION AND                    
DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN IL. BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND                     
INSTABILITY IS WELL SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL IN                  
BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR SE              
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY MUCH               
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NAM INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OVER IA               
AND MOVING INTO N AND CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT OR THU MORNING.                   
SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MOVING INTO NW                
IA ATTM...SO NAM SEEMS REASONABLE. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD REFOCUS                 
FROM NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT THIS                  
CONVECTION. MCS MAY BE DIMINISHING DIURNALLY AS IT GET INTO IL THU              
MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR OVERNIGHT BUT CUT BACK TO              
30-40 PERCENT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN S AND W PART OF FORECAST                   
AREA. BEYOND THU MORNING THINGS BECOME MURKY. PATTERN CONTINUES                 
THU...THU NIGHT...AND FRI WITH VERY WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS IN                   
PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 70 SO THIS IS SOME OF THE JUCIEST               
AIR OF THE SEASON. UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SO SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG OVER                  
THIS AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS              
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SLOW MOVING AND/OR              
TRAINING STORMS. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING                 
EXISTS. THE QUESTION IS WHERE MCS BOUNDARIES AND SMALL SCALE SHORT              
WAVES WILL BE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF                         
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THU THROUGH FRI..BUT WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY                 
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                        
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS US/CAN BORDER AND WILL                     
EVENTUALLY FORM CUT OFF LOW OVER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE                  
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY                       
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS                 
UPPER LOW WOBBLES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PERIODS OF SHOWERY                
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY              
A DRY AND MILD PERIOD THROUGH MID WEEK.                                         
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
658 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 00Z TAFS...FEW CHANGES FROM 18Z FORECAST THINKING WITH                      
CONVECTIVE TRENDS/PROBABILITIES MAIN QUESTION NEXT 24 HOURS.                    
SHORT WAVE/MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF TO THE               
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENCE                  
ACROSS FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A FEW ACARS            
ASCENT/DECENT SOUNDINGS FROM KORD APPEARS TO BE A WARM BULGE AROUND             
800 HPA CAPPING OTHERWISE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE VIS               
SATELLITE EVIDENCE OF LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING/EARLY                   
AFTERNOON MCS REMNANTS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...CONVECTION DEVELOPING             
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL                 
SHORT WAVE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS                   
WESTERN PART OF THE HAWKEYE STATE. SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS DATA                    
INDICATES IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA AT THIS             
HOUR...WITH 4000-5000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTH OF I/80 CORRIDOR.                    
PROFILER WINDS SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FARTHER WEST              
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NEBRASKA...WITH MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT               
FARTHER NORTH/EAST. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FROM AROUND               
KDSM SOUTHWEST/WEST TOWARD KOMA VCNTY...WHILE AREA OF LIKELY MORE               
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BEST LOW               
LEVEL JET/FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NEB/SDAK/WESTERN IA WITH            
MCS PROPAGATION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP THIS MAIN                
AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.                            
HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK SUPPORT FARTHER NORTH...NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE            
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY STILL ALLOW SOME WEAK                  
CONVECTION/REMAINS OF NORTHERN IA ACTIVITY TO ENCROACH ON FORECAST              
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO OUR            
WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT            
VCSH MENTION AFTER ABOUT 09Z.                                                   
MODELS MAINTAIN IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE                 
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT                
SAGGING ACROSS IL/WI BORDER REGION DURING AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER                
FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT               
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3500 J/KG               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. GFS/NGM INDICATE COMBINATION                 
FRONT/LAKE BREEZE MAY SAG ACROSS CHI AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY              
BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NAM KEEPS FRONT OFF            
TO THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z FRI. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS             
TIME...THOUGH HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PROB30 FOR TSRA THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON BASED ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/VERY WEAK CAP.                      
AS FOR WINDS...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD LOSE              
GUSTINESS AND BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY                
LAYER DECOUPLES. WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES                        
THURSDAY...PERHAPS BACKING MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN                   
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OVER PLAINS. SOME               
QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT LOCATION OF WEAK COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH             
SETTLES NEARBY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR IT TO COMBINE              
WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN                 
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING FOR KORD/KMDW...THOUGH            
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.                                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
200 PM...OVERALL FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LARGE HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND                     
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE                       
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
QUEBEC THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS                 
THE LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND               
VRB ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW                  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                   
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT REMAINS OVER                 
THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A                   
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES                  
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG AT                 
THIS POINT. CMS                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
733 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
TSRA ACTIVITY WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF MCV MOVG ESE ACROSS NRN INDIANA             
HAS MAINLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVE. STRATIFORM RAIN IN COMMA            
HEAD OF THIS VORTEX AFFECTING FWA ATTM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE                  
TERMINAL BY ISSUANCE TIME. ISOLATED TSRA CONTG ALONG OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARIES AND POCKETS OF REMAINING INSTABILITY. VISIBLE LOOP                   
SHOWING SKIES CLEARING NW OF MCV WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO                     
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NW INDIANA/NE IL...THOUGH A FEW                    
SHRA/TSRA ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE CLEARING ZONE. THIS                    
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT WILL KEEP             
AN ISOLATED STORM MENTIONED IN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WK SHRTWV MOVG                
EAST FROM IA MAY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION BY LATE TONIGHT.                  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES GENERALLY BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT              
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAD RAIN THIS AFTN               
WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR NW. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION            
TO GRIDS/ZONES AND GO WITH MVFR VSBYS AT FWA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND               
EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MS              
VALLEY ON FRI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO NRN                    
INDIANA. THIS SHOULD HELP TRIGGER TSRA IN THE AFTN AS DAYTIME                   
HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY                 
THAT TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS WITH TSTMS. MCV MOVG ACROSS NW INDIANA             
THIS AFTN. LAPS SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 4KJ/KG AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.             
SFC TROF ALSO EVIDENT FM ERN MI SW TO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. SCT                 
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTN. WITH WK SHEAR            
AND VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY                 
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS... VERY HEAVY RAIN.... AND SOME HAIL.                   
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVE ALONG SFC TROF AND                 
SUBSEQUENT TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO HAVE CONTD WITH SCT POPS                  
THROUGH 00Z SE WITH A CHC NW. FOR THE EVE HOURS INHERITED LIKELY                
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM RUC13                  
INDICATING AN AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV WILL              
MOVE EAST FROM NW IA THIS AFTN TO ERN WI/NE IL BY 06Z. CURRENTLY                
MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOVG SSE HWVR              
SOME CONVECTION ALSO PUSHING EAST ACROSS NRN IA. CAN`T RULE OUT                 
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DVLPG AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV AND MOVG                  
INTO OUR AREA BY LATE EVE BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WITH CONVECTION              
UPSTREAM HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHC ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA IN                 
THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.                                                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MAIN CONCERN IS THE                
SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IN ACTIVE PATTERN AS                   
POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRI              
INTO FRI NIGHT.                                                                 
LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...LEFT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS                  
AS FA MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION/MCS CURRENTLY BACK IN IA WITH               
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE IA/SRN WI/NW IL VICINITY                    
TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH            
THE GFS HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND THE 12Z NAM                       
INITIALIZING POORLY WITH QPF. HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT THAT AN                    
ADDITIONAL MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE W WITH INCREASING LL CONV                
AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THETA-E/MOISTURE GRADIENT. WOULD             
THINK THAT THIS WOULD TRACK EASTWARD FOLLOWING PROGGED CORFIDI                  
VECTORS/7H FLOW. ALSO WOULD EXPECT THE MCS TO TRACK NEAR/JUST SOUTH             
OF STRONG INSTABILITY/THETA-E BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WNW                  
TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER. WITH THIS SAID...THINK THIS FEATURE WILL               
WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER FORCING WITH TRACK/SPEED IN QUESTION DUE            
TO LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP WITH CHC            
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.                        
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MCS RENMANTS IT ONCE               
AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS                    
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS            
WILL YIELD MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR                        
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT/DIFFUSE SFC                
TROUGH RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTH IN REPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS                   
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THINK IT                
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAK CAP NEAR 12KFT FOR SCT                             
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND. DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR NEEDED FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY STAY            
OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...HAIL/MICROBURST MULTICELLS A DISTINT                
POSSIBLITY WITH IMPRESSIVE CAPE...STEEP LL LAPSE RATES...AND                    
SOMEWHAT DRY MID-LEVELS.                                                        
FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE             
FRI AFTN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR MCI             
NE THRU DSM AND GRB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OUT AS DISCRETE            
SUPERCELLS AND THEN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL DRIVEN SQUALL                     
LINE/LEWP...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRI                 
NIGHT. SVR WX A CONCERN WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT            
THIS TO FALL APART AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LARGE SCALE                
FORCING WITH DIFF PVA/HEIGHT FALLS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN RIGHT              
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH...AND LL CONV              
ALONG SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AND INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HEAVY RAIN                    
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER NEAR 10KFT.                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE TO LONG TERM WITH OVERALL PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL                    
PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY USELESS ON DETAILS FOR SATURDAY WITH               
THE NEAR TERM SO MUDDLED THAT INITIALIZATION ISSUES ABOUND.  BUT THE            
LARGER DETAILS ARE STILL CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER             
GREAT LAKES AND ASSOC SFC FRONT ROLLING THROUGH ON SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY BUFR SOUNDINGS TO BE WELL              
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. WHILE ACTIVITY COULD FIRE EARLY                 
ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROF INDICATED BY NAM IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT...AS            
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...THAT DETAILS OF THE AFTERNOON                
EVOLUTION WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON FEATURES REMAINING FROM                  
FRIDAY NIGHTS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.                                             
COLD POOL THEN SETTLES IN WITH MODELS POORLY HANDLING STRENGTH AND              
LOCATION FROM RUN TO RUN WITH LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON H5                    
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LOW.  KEPT AFTERNOON POPS INTACT AND DID              
NOT ADD ANYTHING IN MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.                        
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN NA LIFTS WITH BROADER TROFING IN ITS WAKE                 
KEEPING AREA UNDER UPPER NW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
NEAR TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
323 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.NEAR TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS WITH TSTMS. MCV MOVG ACROSS NW INDIANA             
THIS AFTN. LAPS SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 4KJ/KG AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.             
SFC TROF ALSO EVIDENT FM ERN MI SW TO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. SCT                 
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTN. WITH WK SHEAR            
AND VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY                 
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS... VERY HEAVY RAIN.... AND SOME HAIL.                   
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVE ALONG SFC TROF AND                 
SUBSEQUENT TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO HAVE CONTD WITH SCT POPS                  
THROUGH 00Z SE WITH A CHC NW. FOR THE EVE HOURS INHERITED LIKELY                
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM RUC13                  
INDICATING AN AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV WILL              
MOVE EAST FROM NW IA THIS AFTN TO ERN WI/NE IL BY 06Z. CURRENTLY                
MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOVG SSE HWVR              
SOME CONVECTION ALSO PUSHING EAST ACROSS NRN IA. CAN`T RULE OUT                 
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DVLPG AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV AND MOVG                  
INTO OUR AREA BY LATE EVE BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WITH CONVECTION              
UPSTREAM HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHC ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA IN                 
THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MAIN CONCERN IS THE                
SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IN ACTIVE PATTERN AS                   
POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRI              
INTO FRI NIGHT.                                                                 
LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...LEFT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS                  
AS FA MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION/MCS CURRENTLY BACK IN IA WITH               
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE IA/SRN WI/NW IL VICINITY                    
TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH            
THE GFS HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND THE 12Z NAM                       
INITIALIZING POORLY WITH QPF. HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT THAT AN                    
ADDITIONAL MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE W WITH INCREASING LL CONV                
AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THETA-E/MOISTURE GRADIENT. WOULD             
THINK THAT THIS WOULD TRACK EASTWARD FOLLOWING PROGGED CORFIDI                  
VECTORS/7H FLOW. ALSO WOULD EXPECT THE MCS TO TRACK NEAR/JUST SOUTH             
OF STRONG INSTABILITY/THETA-E BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WNW                  
TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER. WITH THIS SAID...THINK THIS FEATURE WILL               
WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER FORCING WITH TRACK/SPEED IN QUESTION DUE            
TO LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP WITH CHC            
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.                        
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MCS RENMANTS IT ONCE               
AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS                    
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS            
WILL YIELD MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR                        
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT/DIFFUSE SFC                
TROUGH RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTH IN REPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS                   
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THINK IT                
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAK CAP NEAR 12KFT FOR SCT                             
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND. DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR NEEDED FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY STAY            
OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...HAIL/MICROBURST MULTICELLS A DISTINT                
POSSIBLITY WITH IMPRESSIVE CAPE...STEEP LL LAPSE RATES...AND                    
SOMEWHAT DRY MID-LEVELS.                                                        
FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE             
FRI AFTN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR MCI             
NE THRU DSM AND GRB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OUT AS DISCRETE            
SUPERCELLS AND THEN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL DRIVEN SQUALL                     
LINE/LEWP...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRI                 
NIGHT. SVR WX A CONCERN WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT            
THIS TO FALL APART AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LARGE SCALE                
FORCING WITH DIFF PVA/HEIGHT FALLS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN RIGHT              
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH...AND LL CONV              
ALONG SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AND INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HEAVY RAIN                    
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER NEAR 10KFT.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LITTLE CHANGE TO LONG TERM WITH OVERALL PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL                    
PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.        
MODELS ARE FAIRLY USELESS ON DETAILS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE NEAR TERM            
SO MUDDLED THAT INITIALIZATION ISSUES ABOUND.  BUT THE LARGER                   
DETAILS ARE STILL CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER GREAT              
LAKES AND ASSOC SFC FRONT ROLLING THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY BUFR SOUNDINGS TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED             
AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. WHILE ACTIVITY COULD FIRE EARLY ALONG PRE                   
FRONTAL TROF INDICATED BY NAM IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT...AS HAS BEEN             
THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...THAT DETAILS OF THE AFTERNOON EVOLUTION               
WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON FEATURES REMAINING FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS              
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.                                                           
COLD POOL THEN SETTLES IN WITH MODELS POORLY HANDLING STRENGTH AND              
LOCATION FROM RUN TO RUN WITH LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON H5                    
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LOW.  KEPT AFTERNOON POPS INTACT AND DID              
NOT ADD ANYTHING IN MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.                        
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN NA LIFTS WITH BROADER TROFING IN ITS WAKE                 
KEEPING AREA UNDER UPPER NW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN                      
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT KSBN                     
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS KFWA. MORE                 
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER IOWA WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE REGION                
WITH POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...LUDINGTON                                                            
NEAR TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
GRIDS/ZONES...WILL LET SCT POPS RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON. AREA OF SHOWERS IS WORKING EAST WHICH WILL AFFECT                    
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BIG QUESTIONS                    
REMAINS IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY AND FAST ENOUGH              
TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE               
APPROACHING MCV. IR SAT SHOWING GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND                
NO REAL SIGNS OF ANYTHING TO KEY IN ON. POCKETS OF CLEARING JUST                
HEAD OF THE MCV HAVE ALLOWED A FEW AREAS TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS 80.              
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED              
ATTM PRIOR TO AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.                                       
AVIATION WISE...FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP HAS CLEARED BOTH SITES                    
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. HAVE WENT RATHER CONSERVATIVE              
AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 00Z WITH MORE OF A VCSH MENTION. PROXIMITY                
OF INITIAL PRECIP TO KSBN DID APPEAR TO WARRANT A BRIEF TEMPO                   
GROUP. TONIGHT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA                
UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING WITH NEXT MCS MOVING IN. WILL KEEP HIGH AND               
DRY FOR NOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                    
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. CONCERNS ON CLOUD            
COVER/CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES/AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL COOLING ARE               
ABOUND.                                                                         
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL                 
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PUSHING                      
EAST TOWARD THE FA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED LL FLOW PER                
PROFILER DATA...UNDER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING            
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA THROUGH MORNING.                      
TODAY...HAVE UTILIZED THE NGM FOR SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AS THE                     
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SUFFER GREATLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OTHER               
BIAS ISSUES. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR            
OVER SOUTHERN IA TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE FA. ROBUST                        
CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT RELEASE UPSTREAM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LL PV              
FIELDS AND HELP IN THE MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION OF THIS IMPULSE              
OVER THE REGION TODAY.  GROWING INSTABILITY PER MID LEVEL COOLING               
AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE               
DAY...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO            
HIGHLY LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION OVER NW THIRD OF THE FA...THUS                    
LIMITING INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE              
EAST IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEARLY 2000                
J/KG CAPE AND PULSE WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW              
AND CLOUD COVER MAY HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS AND FEEL SEVERE WORDING IS               
NOT PRUDENT ATTM. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WARM. HAVE            
LOWERED SOME ALREADY...AND THINGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. IT IS            
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE FA MAY NOT SURPASS THE LOW             
TO MID 70S. LEAD SW WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW            
MODIFIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IA/MN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                      
INITIATION POINT OF NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.             
HAVE RETAINED POP MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATING INTO THE FA            
TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGING PER 305 K MIXING RATIO PROGS WOULD SUPPORT             
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
FOR TS RESIDING IN NW.                                                          
THUR...FLATTENING ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER MID LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. THIS FITS THE MCS/DERECHO PATTERN WELL FOR THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LL MOISTURE AND HEAT IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED             
50 POP MENTION IN THE NORTH...TRENDING TO 30 SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL              
WARMING/CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE                
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SOUTHERLY/DEEP MIXED FLOW. H85                 
TEMPS AROUND 17C WOULD SPELL MID 80S EASILY FOR MOST OF THE FA.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
BRIEF RESPITE TO PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM WILL BREAK TWD SIG                         
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF                
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED SW/S WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLW AND             
DEEP GULF OF AK STORM MOVING INTO WRN CANADA.                                   
DIFFICULT TO TIME SW TROUGHS AS SEEN W/INCONSISTENT MODEL                       
SOLUTIONS...ESP OP GFS AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FVR OF ECMWF WHICH                
RETAINED THE GREATEST PREV RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE               
DVLPMNT OF YET ANOTHER DEEP COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW ACRS THE GREAT                 
LAKES BY WEEKS END W/LIKELY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVN FRI-MON BFR            
SYS OPENS AND FILLS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO PRIOR THINKING W/FEW TWEAKS             
TO POPS ACCOUNTING FOR PREFERRED DIURNAL CYCLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL/FISHER                                                      
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
728 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
ZONE/GRID UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO INCREASE POPS NORTHWEST HALF TO                 
2/3RD TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS MORNING FOR APPROACHING MCS. IR                   
CLOUD TOPS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY                  
UNDERGOING A SLOW DECAYING PROCESS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF 30 TO              
40 KT LLJ STILL FEEDING IN...OBVIOUS MCV SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND                
SATELLITE DATA...ALL SUGGEST THAT COMPLEX SHOULD BRING SOME                     
RAINFALL TO AT LEAST THE NOTED AREAS FOR PART OF THIS MORNING.                  
WILL KEEP SE AREAS IN THE SCT WORDING FOR NOW WITH BULK OF                      
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR                 
TRENDS ON COMPLEX AND UPDATE MORE IF NEEDED. THERE ARE SOME                     
CLUSTERS OF STORMS EMBEDDED YET WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY                
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR.                              
AVIATION WISE...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN                   
TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST OF THE AREA OF PRECIP. AREAS THAT                   
EXPERIENCE STORMS ARE SEEING BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS. FOR NOW AT               
KSBN HAVE WENT PREDOMINANT VFR WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z                  
BKN025 TO COVER ANY CONVECTION. AT KFWA HAVE KEPT VCSH FOR NOW AND              
SEE HOW THE AREA PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. BEYOND 16Z NO              
CHANGES AS REMAINDER OF MESOSCALE SETUP REMAINS TOO QUESTIONABLE                
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                    
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. CONCERNS ON CLOUD            
COVER/CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES/AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL COOLING ARE               
ABOUND.                                                                         
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL                 
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PUSHING                      
EAST TOWARD THE FA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED LL FLOW PER                
PROFILER DATA...UNDER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING            
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA THROUGH MORNING.                      
TODAY...HAVE UTILIZED THE NGM FOR SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AS THE                     
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SUFFER GREATLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OTHER               
BIAS ISSUES. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR            
OVER SOUTHERN IA TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE FA. ROBUST                        
CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT RELEASE UPSTREAM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LL PV              
FIELDS AND HELP IN THE MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION OF THIS IMPULSE              
OVER THE REGION TODAY.  GROWING INSTABILITY PER MID LEVEL COOLING               
AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE               
DAY...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO            
HIGHLY LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION OVER NW THIRD OF THE FA...THUS                    
LIMITING INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE              
EAST IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEARLY 2000                
J/KG CAPE AND PULSE WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW              
AND CLOUD COVER MAY HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS AND FEEL SEVERE WORDING IS               
NOT PRUDENT ATTM. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WARM. HAVE            
LOWERED SOME ALREADY...AND THINGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. IT IS            
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE FA MAY NOT SURPASS THE LOW             
TO MID 70S. LEAD SW WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW            
MODIFIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IA/MN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                      
INITIATION POINT OF NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.             
HAVE RETAINED POP MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATING INTO THE FA            
TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGING PER 305 K MIXING RATIO PROGS WOULD SUPPORT             
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
FOR TS RESIDING IN NW.                                                          
THUR...FLATTENING ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER MID LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. THIS FITS THE MCS/DERECHO PATTERN WELL FOR THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LL MOISTURE AND HEAT IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED             
50 POP MENTION IN THE NORTH...TRENDING TO 30 SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL              
WARMING/CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE                
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SOUTHERLY/DEEP MIXED FLOW. H85                 
TEMPS AROUND 17C WOULD SPELL MID 80S EASILY FOR MOST OF THE FA.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
BRIEF RESPITE TO PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM WILL BREAK TWD SIG                         
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF                
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED SW/S WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLW AND             
DEEP GULF OF AK STORM MOVING INTO WRN CANADA.                                   
DIFFICULT TO TIME SW TROUGHS AS SEEN W/INCONSISTENT MODEL                       
SOLUTIONS...ESP OP GFS AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FVR OF ECMWF WHICH                
RETAINED THE GREATEST PREV RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE               
DVLPMNT OF YET ANOTHER DEEP COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW ACRS THE GREAT                 
LAKES BY WEEKS END W/LIKELY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVN FRI-MON BFR            
SYS OPENS AND FILLS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO PRIOR THINKING W/FEW TWEAKS             
TO POPS ACCOUNTING FOR PREFERRED DIURNAL CYCLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FISHER                                                               
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL                                                             
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
416 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                                    
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. CONCERNS ON CLOUD            
COVER/CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES/AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL COOLING ARE               
ABOUND.                                                                         
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MO/IL IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL                 
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ. THIS IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PUSHING                      
EAST TOWARD THE FA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASED LL FLOW PER                
PROFILER DATA...UNDER STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING            
SCT SHRA/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA THROUGH MORNING.                      
TODAY...HAVE UTILIZED THE NGM FOR SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AS THE                     
GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SUFFER GREATLY FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OTHER               
BIAS ISSUES. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR            
OVER SOUTHERN IA TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE FA. ROBUST                        
CONVECTION/LATENT HEAT RELEASE UPSTREAM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LL PV              
FIELDS AND HELP IN THE MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION OF THIS IMPULSE              
OVER THE REGION TODAY.  GROWING INSTABILITY PER MID LEVEL COOLING               
AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE               
DAY...TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO            
HIGHLY LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION OVER NW THIRD OF THE FA...THUS                    
LIMITING INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE              
EAST IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEARLY 2000                
J/KG CAPE AND PULSE WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW              
AND CLOUD COVER MAY HIGHLY LIMIT TEMPS AND FEEL SEVERE WORDING IS               
NOT PRUDENT ATTM. TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WARM. HAVE            
LOWERED SOME ALREADY...AND THINGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. IT IS            
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE FA MAY NOT SURPASS THE LOW             
TO MID 70S. LEAD SW WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW            
MODIFIED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IA/MN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                      
INITIATION POINT OF NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.             
HAVE RETAINED POP MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATING INTO THE FA            
TONIGHT. THETA-E RIDGING PER 305 K MIXING RATIO PROGS WOULD SUPPORT             
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
FOR TS RESIDING IN NW.                                                          
THUR...FLATTENING ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER MID LEVEL                    
DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE             
NORTH. THIS FITS THE MCS/DERECHO PATTERN WELL FOR THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH LL MOISTURE AND HEAT IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED             
50 POP MENTION IN THE NORTH...TRENDING TO 30 SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL              
WARMING/CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE                
RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SOUTHERLY/DEEP MIXED FLOW. H85                 
TEMPS AROUND 17C WOULD SPELL MID 80S EASILY FOR MOST OF THE FA.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BRIEF RESPITE TO PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM WILL BREAK TWD SIG                         
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN BY NXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF                
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED SW/S WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLW AND             
DEEP GULF OF AK STORM MOVING INTO WRN CANADA.                                   
DIFFICULT TO TIME SW TROUGHS AS SEEN W/INCONSISTENT MODEL                       
SOLUTIONS...ESP OP GFS AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FVR OF ECMWF WHICH                
RETAINED THE GREATEST PREV RUN CONTINUITY. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE               
DVLPMNT OF YET ANOTHER DEEP COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW ACRS THE GREAT                 
LAKES BY WEEKS END W/LIKELY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVN FRI-MON BFR            
SYS OPENS AND FILLS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO PRIOR THINKING W/FEW TWEAKS             
TO POPS ACCOUNTING FOR PREFERRED DIURNAL CYCLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHRA/TS CHANCES AT SBN AND FWA.              
CURRENT TS COMPLEX IN MO/IL IS PUSHING NE AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER              
THE FA BY 09-10Z SUPPORTED BY WAA. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO AT SBN                   
WHERE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. ONLY INCLUDED CB/VCSH            
MENTION AT FWA...DUE TO CONCERNS ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.                        
AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO CONCERNS ON                
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. QUESTIONS ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/STRENGTH OF               
MID LEVEL WAVE/AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL MAKE PIN POINTING TSRA                 
DIFFICULT. FELT BEST AVENUE AT THIS TIME IS TO RETAIN CB AND VCTS               
MENTION UNTIL BETTER TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED. A SECOND ROUND OF                  
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WED EVENING INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD AS A TS                
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER IA/MN AND PUSH SE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
956 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UDPATE...                                                                      
EXPANDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLIER UPDATE.  SEE DISCUSSION                
BELOW.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS OBVIOUSLY APPROACHING NE MCS.  EXTRAPOLATION            
BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE TO MY SWRN ZONES AROUND 200 AM SO HAVE                  
BOOSTED POPS SRN SECTIONS TO CATEGORICAL WORDING...NOW AREA WIDE.               
MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST COMPLEX SHOULD NOT MOVE NORTH             
OF DUE EAST AND WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  RUC 310K             
ISENT SFC FOCUSES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO SWRN IA AS WELL ON NOSE             
OF 35-50KT LLJ WHICH WOULD ALSO KEEP COMPLEX MORE SOUTH THAN NORTH.             
WITH SRN IA NOW SEEMING TO BE UNDER THE GUN...WILL EXPAND FFA TO ALL            
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 3...INCLUDING SWRN IA.                         
NOT SURE ON HOW STRONG THE MCS WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.                
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NRN KS MCS MAY STEAL SOME OF THE INFLOW              
POTENTIAL...AND RUC CINS COMPUTED FROM VARIOUS ELEVATED LEVELS                  
SUGGEST VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPRESS STRENGTH SOMEWHAT.                    
HOWEVER HIGHER MCS MAINTENANCE PROBS ADVANCE INTO IA OVERNIGHT WITH             
SHEAR AND MUCAPES...AND KINEMATIC FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE MAY BE                
ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY APPARENT INHIBITION.  THUS SEE NO REASON WHY               
SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS WILL NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO IA.                 
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...HIGH WCDS AND INCREASING PWS STILL                  
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  MEAN WIND IS ONLY 20-25             
OVER IA BY 09Z AND CORFIDI VECTORS/MBE MOVEMENT EVEN LESS TO THE                
SOUTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
(TONIGHT)                                                                       
ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX...MADE MORE                
DIFFICULT BY THE COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE RATHER STRONG              
COLD POOL ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE             
CONVECTION...HAS HOVERED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST WITH LOWER TO             
MID 70S WEST.  CAPE VALUES ARE STILL RESPECTABLE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA             
BUT NOT NEAR AS LARGE AS THEY WERE AND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK.  GIVEN               
THAT CAPES ARE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS                 
STILL DECENT WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY               
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON            
AND EARLY EVENING.  THE KICKER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD THEN DEVELOP DOWN THE INSTABILITY             
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THUNDERSTORMS WITH            
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                    
MORNING.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NO HELP AS THEY DO NOT REALLY PICK UP            
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND THEY ARE ALL OVER THE                
PLACE WITH THE PRECIP AND QPF.  FOR NOW THE BEST INTERPRETATION OF              
THE DATA SUGGESTS AN MCS OVER THE DAKOTAS...OR SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF              
STORMS TO THE WEST...WILL EVENTUALLY COME TOGETHER AND ROLL ACROSS              
CENTRAL IOWA LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ONCE MORE AND PERSIST THROUGH            
THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.                                                      
(FRI-THU)                                                                       
ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL             
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT            
LAKES ON SATURDAY...BUCKLING THE ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW            
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CERTAINLY                         
UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST FOR FRIDAY AND WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE TO               
WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12Z AND PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH THE              
AREA AND BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. REMNANTS OF AN             
MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT SHOULD BE             
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH LIKE TODAY...RECOVERY            
DURING THE DAY WILL BE DEPENDANT IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN BREAK BY                
LATE MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO               
MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH MIXED LAYER               
CAPES TO OVER 3000 J/KG. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS INSTABILITY            
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A MULTICELLULAR SQUALL LINE ALONG THE                   
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MOVING EAST INTO THE            
EARLY EVENING HOURS.                                                            
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST                  
THROUGH MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE              
MID LEVEL COLD CORE PASSING NEARBY...SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH PROBLEM               
INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST               
HALF. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOW MELTING LEVELS AND            
NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...LARGE HAIL MAINLY NICKEL SIZED OR LESS               
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WITH THE COOLER LOW TO MID LEVEL                      
TEMPERATURES AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME              
RISING OUT OF THE 70S. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH            
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING              
THE AFTERNOON. GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...27/00Z                                                              
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED IA FOR THE MOST PART WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION            
REMAINING OVER KS AND MO THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER ATTENTION TURNS                 
UPSTREAM TO LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NE.              
EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT FULLY EXPECT THIS COMPLEX             
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PARTS OF IA...LIKELY DSM/OTM DURING THE EARLY                
MORNING HOURS.  HAVE VICINITY WORDING NOW AND WILL HIT HARDER WITH              
06Z PACKAGE AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.  FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI                     
AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER ALL BUT OTM AREA BUT               
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION            
AT THE MOMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING             
THINGS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HIGHWAY 3 SOUTH TO MISSOURI BORDER TIL 12Z.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FAB/RAD/BSS                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCLUSION OF 06Z TAFS AND CANCELLATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH 606.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX AS THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES             
OVER/NEAR THE CWA.  CURRENTLY WE ARE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 4000 J/KG              
OF CAPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF IA BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY             
20-25KTS OR LESS.  OVER THE NORTHWEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS               
FROM A LOW IN NE MN.  THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW IA THEN ALONG               
THE NEB/SDKTA BORDER.  THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE              
FRONT BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE/SUSTAIN                        
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALOFT...THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF              
SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT            
CENTERS...ONE OVER NW IA...PROBABLY AIDING IN THE SHOWERS UP                    
THERE...AND ONE IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO SW IA.  CAPE VALUES IN              
THIS AREA ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN IN SW IA AND THERE ARE NO                        
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING YET.  HAVING SAID ALL THIS...ANY ONE OF                
THESE FEATURES CAN TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT AT ANY TIME.  THE LACK OF             
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR IS THE PERPLEXING PART.                                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LOW.  I            
WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE THERE THEN TRAVEL DOWN THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.  I BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE             
ON THE SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE             
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE HIGH CAPE AREA.  LATER TONIGHT A             
LLJ DEVELOPS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN                
MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WITH               
THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE INITIATION WILL BEGIN             
I HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST                
POPS STILL REMAIN NORTH BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE                  
SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWN THERE WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY               
HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                                 
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS WITHIN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST            
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE                
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGER SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A               
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING THEN ROLL THROUGH                 
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY             
ON THURSDAY. SOME SFC HEATING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS            
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FOR               
THE STORMS TO FEED ON. SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT            
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. GOOD                     
INSTABILITY LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MIX LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO              
2500 J/KG HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PASS TO THE                 
NORTH. STILL ENOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR SOME SEVERE MULTICELL                 
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPER CELLS.                                                
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING                 
SLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING CYCLONIC                
FLOW TO IOWA. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED LOW POPS TO               
THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SOME                     
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GRADUALLY WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH              
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND                
INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...26/06Z                                                              
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOVE TO EXIT SRN IA INCLUDING AROUND KOTM.  WITH            
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HUMID WED AND                 
RECENT RAINS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER EXTENSIVE                 
MIDDLE CLOUD COVER FROM DEPARTING STORMS AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX               
OVER DAKOTAS SHOULD DEEP RADIATIVE COOLING FROM BEING TOO EXTREME SO            
ONLY MVFR FOG MENTION FOR NOW.  CONFIDENCE IN DAKOTAS COMPLEX MAKING            
IT HERE RATHER LOW FOR THE TIME BEING...SO HAVE IGNORED AT 06Z.                 
HOWEVER FULLY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME TODAY              
OR THU EVENING.  REALLY DO NOT HAVE A FEEL FOR LOCATION OR TIMING               
YET SO JUST MENTIONED CB RATHER THAN 6+ HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN               
TERMINALS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAD/FAB/BSS                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
336 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX AS THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES             
OVER/NEAR THE CWA.  CURRENTLY WE ARE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 4000 J/KG              
OF CAPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF IA BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY             
20-25KTS OR LESS.  OVER THE NORTHWEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS               
FROM A LOW IN NE MN.  THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW IA THEN ALONG               
THE NEB/SDKTA BORDER.  THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE              
FRONT BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE/SUSTAIN                        
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALOFT...THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF              
SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT            
CENTERS...ONE OVER NW IA...PROBABLY AIDING IN THE SHOWERS UP                    
THERE...AND ONE IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO SW IA.  CAPE VALUES IN              
THIS AREA ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN IN SW IA AND THERE ARE NO                        
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING YET.  HAVING SAID ALL THIS...ANY ONE OF                
THESE FEATURES CAN TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT AT ANY TIME.  THE LACK OF             
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR IS THE PERPLEXING PART.                                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LOW.  I            
WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE THERE THEN TRAVEL DOWN THE                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.  I BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE             
ON THE SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE             
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE HIGH CAPE AREA.  LATER TONIGHT A             
LLJ DEVELOPS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN                
MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WITH               
THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE INITIATION WILL BEGIN             
I HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST                
POPS STILL REMAIN NORTH BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE                  
SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWN THERE WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY               
HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                                 
.LONG TERM /THU-WED/...                                                         
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS WITHIN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST            
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE                
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGER SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A               
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING THEN ROLL THROUGH                 
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY             
ON THURSDAY. SOME SFC HEATING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS            
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FOR               
THE STORMS TO FEED ON. SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT            
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. GOOD                     
INSTABILITY LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MIX LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO              
2500 J/KG HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PASS TO THE                 
NORTH. STILL ENOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR SOME SEVERE MULTICELL                 
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPER CELLS.                                                
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING                 
SLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING CYCLONIC                
FLOW TO IOWA. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED LOW POPS TO               
THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER            
LOW. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SOME                     
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GRADUALLY WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH              
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND                
INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...25/18Z                                                              
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE            
VERY WELL.  LOW PRESSURE OVER MN HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NR            
NW IA THEN INTO SERN SDKTA AND NRN NEB.  THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY                  
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT                
WITH WEAK TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE                
BASED LARGELY ON CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  ONCE THE STORMS START            
TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO QUICKLY IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WE ARE            
IN.  WE MAY NEED THE HELP OF THE LLJ TO GET THINGS GOING.  IN THAT              
CASE IT WOULD BE LATER THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT               
THE STORMS MAY FIRE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN WHICH CASE THE             
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WOULD ALSO BE AT RISK OF STORMS.  I HAVE LEANED              
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS SAT PIX SHOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER               
SRN/CENT NEB.  MVFR COND W/ LCL IFR COND WL PREVAIL IN TSRA.                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...DONAVON                                                             
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FAB                                                       
</pre> ia                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
113 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                      
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID PERIOD. LEE TROF WILL                  
LEAD TO SRLY WIND GUSTS (25-30KT) THIS PM IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS.                  
WINDS WILL BECOME W-SWRLY TOWARD END OF VALID PERIOD JUST AHEAD OF              
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                                         
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                          
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SO                 
WILL FOLLOW A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AND                 
MOST GRID ELEMENTS TODAY. A BIT MORE OF A CAP EARLY THIS MORNING                
BASED ON RUC MODEL...SO HOPEFULLY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER SUNRISE                  
SURPRISE TOWARD DAWN...ISOLATED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE                  
EXPECT A COUPLE LOCALES TO APPROACH/TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS               
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MAXS IN THE LOW/MID 90S                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO 100 WITH COMBO                 
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.                                                           
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY                 
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG SUMMER-TIME UPPER TROF AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS                  
TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COOLISH/DRIER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT ON                   
FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS                
EASTERN KANSAS...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BUILD ON A SEVERE                     
CONVECTIVE EPISODE...SO HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING/SOUTHWARD MOVE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE                
NAM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAXS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL                  
STILL KEEP THINGS QUITE TOASTY...HOWEVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                 
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST                
OF GREATER WICHITA WHERE PERHAPS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME                
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE MAX POTENTIAL LATE IN                
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPERED MAXS FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR                 
SUNDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                  
WILL HOLD SWAY THRU THE WEEKEND NOW.                                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
MAY INITIATE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AND                    
COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS.                                
OTHERWISE...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY MID-MORNING                  
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH                  
PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER NORTHWEST OF THE                
AREA.                                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  50                                
HUTCHINSON      96  72  98  69 /  10  10  30  50                                
NEWTON          95  73  97  70 /  10  10  30  50                                
ELDORADO        94  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
RUSSELL        100  71  95  66 /  10  20  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      99  71  97  67 /  10  10  40  30                                
SALINA          99  73  97  68 /  10  20  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       97  73  97  69 /  10  10  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
CHANUTE         92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
IOLA            92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
PARSONS-KPPF    92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
632 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 12Z TAFS...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY                
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY.                                           
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY                 
ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.               
MOST SITES(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU) CAN EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 20             
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE BULK OF THE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT              
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT.                                 
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                          
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SO                 
WILL FOLLOW A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AND                 
MOST GRID ELEMENTS TODAY. A BIT MORE OF A CAP EARLY THIS MORNING                
BASED ON RUC MODEL...SO HOPEFULLY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER SUNRISE                  
SURPRISE TOWARD DAWN...ISOLATED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE                  
EXPECT A COUPLE LOCALES TO APPROACH/TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS               
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MAXS IN THE LOW/MID 90S                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO 100 WITH COMBO                 
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.                                                           
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY                 
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG SUMMER-TIME UPPER TROF AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS                  
TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COOLISH/DRIER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT ON                   
FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS                
EASTERN KANSAS...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BUILD ON A SEVERE                     
CONVECTIVE EPISODE...SO HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING/SOUTHWARD MOVE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE                
NAM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAXS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL                  
STILL KEEP THINGS QUITE TOASTY...HOWEVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                 
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST                
OF GREATER WICHITA WHERE PERHAPS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME                
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE MAX POTENTIAL LATE IN                
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPERED MAXS FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR                 
SUNDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                  
WILL HOLD SWAY THRU THE WEEKEND NOW.                                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
MAY INITIATE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AND                    
COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS.                                
OTHERWISE...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY MID-MORNING                  
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH                  
PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER NORTHWEST OF THE                
AREA.                                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  50                                
HUTCHINSON      96  72  98  69 /  10  10  30  50                                
NEWTON          95  73  97  70 /  10  10  30  50                                
ELDORADO        94  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
RUSSELL        100  71  95  66 /  10  20  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      99  71  97  67 /  10  10  40  30                                
SALINA          99  73  97  68 /  10  20  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       97  73  97  69 /  10  10  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
CHANUTE         92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
IOLA            92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
PARSONS-KPPF    92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
316 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                          
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SO                 
WILL FOLLOW A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AND                 
MOST GRID ELEMENTS TODAY. A BIT MORE OF A CAP EARLY THIS MORNING                
BASED ON RUC MODEL...SO HOPEFULLY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER SUNRISE                  
SURPRISE TOWARD DAWN...ISOLATED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE                  
EXPECT A COUPLE LOCALES TO APPROACH/TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS               
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MAXS IN THE LOW/MID 90S                  
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...IT WILL FEEL CLOSE TO 100 WITH COMBO                 
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.                                                           
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY                 
CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG SUMMER-TIME UPPER TROF AND THE                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS                  
TROF WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COOLISH/DRIER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT ON                   
FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS                
EASTERN KANSAS...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BUILD ON A SEVERE                     
CONVECTIVE EPISODE...SO HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING/SOUTHWARD MOVE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE                
NAM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAXS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND FOR NOW WILL                  
STILL KEEP THINGS QUITE TOASTY...HOWEVER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                 
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST                
OF GREATER WICHITA WHERE PERHAPS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME                
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE MAX POTENTIAL LATE IN                
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPERED MAXS FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR                 
SUNDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY COOLER AIR                  
WILL HOLD SWAY THRU THE WEEKEND NOW.                                            
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER                
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
MAY INITIATE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AND                    
COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS.                                
OTHERWISE...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY MID-MORNING                  
THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH                  
PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER NORTHWEST OF THE                
AREA.                                                                           
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  97  71 /  10  10  20  50                                
HUTCHINSON      96  72  98  69 /  10  10  30  50                                
NEWTON          95  73  97  70 /  10  10  30  50                                
ELDORADO        94  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
RUSSELL        100  71  95  66 /  10  20  40  20                                
GREAT BEND      99  71  97  67 /  10  10  40  30                                
SALINA          99  73  97  68 /  10  20  40  40                                
MCPHERSON       97  73  97  69 /  10  10  40  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
CHANUTE         92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
IOLA            92  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  60                                
PARSONS-KPPF    92  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
227 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH THE THREAT            
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO ADD A FEW           
MORE COUNTIES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CHANCE POP RANGE. CURRENT           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 13 SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN APPROACHING WEAK           
SHORT WAVE TO INFLUENCE COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE             
FEELING IS THAT SCATTERED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE AREA                     
INFLUENCED BY THE WAVE AND ISOLATED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE                
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHO NEED TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS. LAPS              
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE ENTIRE              
COLUMN...SO ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME              
BY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE            
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.           
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW 14Z TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE              
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF               
TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.            
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...SETTING UP THE                  
APPROACHING WEEKEND SYSTEM. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                            
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                                    
MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY           
AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FLOW            
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL...LEAVING US OPEN TO MORE                 
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL                
TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR SOME.               
BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE                
TRAIN OF TRAVERSING WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE                 
RETURN...SO HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.               
STUCK CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS FOR HIGHS AT JKL...WHILE USING THE GFS              
MOS FOR LOZ AND SME.                                                            
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RE-FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                  
EVENING AS WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TAKING               
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES              
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT            
COOLER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE           
AIR MASS VERY MUGGY. USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST                 
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL THE                  
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY            
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND                  
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK              
SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE LATEST HPC DISCUSSIONS SEEMS TO AGREE            
WITH THIS DECISION AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM                
DOWN WHICH WILL GIVE US PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY                 
HEAVY AT TIMES...STARTING SATURDAY AND ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                 
AN INTERESTING SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST               
COAST SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM              
ON SATURDAY. UPLIFT FROM MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING CHANCES OF                        
PRECIPITATION. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE AND                  
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO CAME IN               
WITH HIGHER POPS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.                             
BASED ON NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOME CONCERN IS STARTING TO               
GROW WITH REGARD TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON             
AND NIGHT. VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE SOUNDINGS SHOW TALL SKINNY CAPE             
PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO              
NORTHEAST LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND FAIRLY SLOW              
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THIS COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF VERY                 
EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY            
AND KEEP THE NAM MOISTURE BIAS IN MIND. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE             
POSSIBILITY OF THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.                
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WITH POPS               
ENDING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY            
FOR NOW...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE AND ANY WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE              
RETREATING H5 TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. TOO           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.            
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. ONLY MADE A              
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE            
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT INCREASE COVERAGE MUCH.           
WILL UPDATE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS                     
APPROACHES. BELIEVE VCTS WILL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE THINK THERE IS                 
ENOUGH RIDGE REMAINING ONCE THE HEATING IS LOST TO KEEP THUNDER                 
FROM APPROACHING WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM IL LATE TONIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/SCHOETTMER                                               
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER                                                         
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1043 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH THE THREAT            
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO ADD A FEW           
MORE COUNTIES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CHANCE POP RANGE. CURRENT           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 13 SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN APPROACHING WEAK           
SHORT WAVE TO INFLUENCE COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE             
FEELING IS THAT SCATTERED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE AREA                     
INFLUENCED BY THE WAVE AND ISOLATED COVERAGE WOULD REPRESENT THE                
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHO NEED TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS. LAPS              
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE ENTIRE              
COLUMN...SO ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME              
BY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE            
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.           
CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW 14Z TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE              
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF               
TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.            
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...SETTING UP THE                  
APPROACHING WEEKEND SYSTEM. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                            
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                                    
MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY           
AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FLOW            
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL...LEAVING US OPEN TO MORE                 
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL                
TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR SOME.               
BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE                
TRAIN OF TRAVERSING WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE                 
RETURN...SO HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.               
STUCK CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS FOR HIGHS AT JKL...WHILE USING THE GFS              
MOS FOR LOZ AND SME.                                                            
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RE-FIRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                  
EVENING AS WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TAKING               
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES              
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT            
COOLER ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE           
AIR MASS VERY MUGGY. USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST                 
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL THE                  
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY            
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND                  
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK              
SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE LATEST HPC DISCUSSIONS SEEMS TO AGREE            
WITH THIS DECISION AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM                
DOWN WHICH WILL GIVE US PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY                 
HEAVY AT TIMES...STARTING SATURDAY AND ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                 
AN INTERESTING SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST               
COAST SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM              
ON SATURDAY. UPLIFT FROM MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUING CHANCES OF                        
PRECIPITATION. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE AND                  
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO CAME IN               
WITH HIGHER POPS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.                             
BASED ON NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOME CONCERN IS STARTING TO               
GROW WITH REGARD TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON             
AND NIGHT. VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE SOUNDINGS SHOW TALL SKINNY CAPE             
PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO              
NORTHEAST LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND FAIRLY SLOW              
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THIS COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF VERY                 
EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY            
AND KEEP THE NAM MOISTURE BIAS IN MIND. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE             
POSSIBILITY OF THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.                
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WITH POPS               
ENDING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY            
FOR NOW...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE AND ANY WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE              
RETREATING H5 TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. TOO           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.            
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. ONLY MADE A              
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVER EAST            
KENTUCKY AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR               
THUNDERSTORM...ACCORDINGLY KEPT THE MODERATELY HIGH BASED CB SCT                
GROUP IN THE TAFS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...           
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY            
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/SCHOETTMER                                               
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER                                                         
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
412 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.                   
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON                
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN                  
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR              
SVR WX.                                                                         
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO                 
TONIGHT. THE RUC13 AND GFS40 WAS USED TO START THINGS OFF THIS                  
MORNING W/1ST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING E AND EXITING                  
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FCST TO SLOWLY SAG S                
TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTL               
CANADA.                                                                         
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION               
W/THE 1ST AREA GETTING STARTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY                    
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE N AND W AND THEN A 2ND AREA FIRING UP ACROSS               
CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. SATL IR IMAGERY SHOWING TO POTENTIAL FOR               
SOME INSOLATION THIS MRNG ACROSS THE N AND W IN BTWN S/WVS                      
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE                 
ALLOWED TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON. DWPTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE                
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MU CAPES HITTING 1000+ J/KG LATER THIS                    
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE N AND W AND THEN THINGS                    
TRANSLATE INTO CNTL AND DOWNEAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. TTS HIT AROUND               
50 W/KIS CLOSING IN 35 W/LIS DROPPING TO -4 TO -6. PWS AROUND                   
1.5". 0-6KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 25 KTS COUPLED W/INVERTED V IN LLVLS                 
INDICATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. UA SHOWED 30-40 KT JETLET FROM                  
700-500 MBS TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WELL. ONE LACKING               
INGREDIENT IS STEEP LAPSE RATES. LAPSE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER                
W/VALUES AROUND 6.0 C/KM. SPC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHT RISK                 
POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA AND NOW OUR CWA IS IN A GENERAL RISK. AFTER               
PHONE CHAT W/GYX...DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND                 
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CONCERNS ARE THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR                
HEAVY RAFL W/HIGH PWS AND LOW/MID FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT.                   
REGENERATION OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                      
FLOODING ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                
CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AND HEAVY RAFL AXIS IS                   
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AFT 06Z AS SFC LOW PASSES TO               
THE E.                                                                          
USED THE DAYCREW/S TEMPS AS THEY WERE MATCHING WELL W/THE LATEST                
OBS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WIND FIELDS TAKING A BLEND OF                 
THE NAM12 AND GFS40.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE                   
STATE FRIDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR TO THE                 
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THAT POINT ON. FOR SATURDAY LOW                  
PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                
WILL GENERATE POP GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE SERF...GS40 AND                     
NAM12. SKY GRIDS CREATED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GS40. FOR                
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL INITIALIZE WITH GM OS. HAVE RAISED               
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GM OS. WILL MENTION SCATTERED              
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS INTO THE                  
EVENING. FOR PF HAVE USED A NAM12/GS40 BLEND.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING             
OF THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THRU              
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERATED GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD USING               
GMOS. FOR SKY GRIDS HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED SOME PERIODS TO BETTER               
FIT POPS. WILL PUT MENTION OF THUNDER INTO SUNDAY                               
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START THINGS OUT TODAY AND THEN WE ARE EXPECTING              
CONDITIONS TO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON W/RAFL               
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD INTO TONIGHT.                  
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. AS MENTIONED ABV...USED A GFS40/NAM12                  
BLEND FOR THE WINDS WILL INDICATES SPEEDS OF 10 KT INTO TONIGHT.                
WNAWAVE WAS LOADED FOR THE WAVE HEIGHTS AND THEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD              
BY A FOOT AS IT IS ALREADY 1 FOOT OVER THE LATEST OBS.                          
SHORT TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE               
NAM12 AND THE GFS40. WIND SPEEDS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE              
ANY CHANGES. FOR WINDS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WILL USE GMOS WINDS. FOR                
WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED INTO SATURDAY WITH NAM VERSION OF SWAN.                 
FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE WITH WNA. IN GENERAL SEEMS              
TO BE HIGH BIAS FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD SO WILL LOWER BY 1 FOOT.                
FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WNA RUNNING MUCH TOO HIGH AND HAVE LOWERED              
WAVE HEIGHTS SEVERAL FEET. &&                                                   
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE                                                            
LONG TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1028 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS             
THE REGION TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT             
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.             
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE               
OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE REMOVED ANY                     
REFERENCE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. CANADIAN                  
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING ANY SHOWER                  
ACTIVITY WELL BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE. LATEST RUC                 
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND KEEPS THE US DRY               
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW                   
WILL THEN BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME                
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX IS IN STORE THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN                       
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING S ACROSS THE CWA               
AND WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONCERNS                        
ARE...WHERE TO PLACE CONVECTION AND TRACK OF SFC LOW.                           
DECIDED ON A 33% BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS40 AND NAM INTO THURSDAY                  
EVENING AND THEN WENT W/THE SREF/GFS40 MATCHING THIS BLEND W/THE                
ECMWF AS SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH CNTL MAINE AND NOT AS FAR N AS                  
THE NAM HAS IT ACROSS NERN MAINE.                                               
THEREFORE...PUSHED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST                
OF THE CWA INTO THURSDAY EVENING W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AS                
HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH ACROSS THE                 
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA TO GO W/STRATIFORM RAIN W/AN ESE FLOW. FURTHER               
S ACROSS CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS MDL SOUNDINGS                       
INDICATE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS. NEED TO BE AWARE OF                
HEAVY RAFL ESP WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS AS KIS ARE FCST TO PUSH MID              
30S...PWS TO BE AT 1.5 INCHES AND DECENT ESE INFLOW OVERRIDING THE              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BLEND OF THE SREF/HPC                 
AND GFS WHICH YIELD ANYWHERE FROM .50-.75 INCHES ACROSS NRN AND                 
CNTL AREAS TO AROUND .25 OF AN INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF COURSE CAN               
BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER RAFL ESP IN CONVECTION. ADDED TSTMS AGAIN                
FOR CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND                   
30-35 KT MID-LVL JET PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS.                        
KEPT DAYCREWS THURSDAY MAXES AS THEY MATCH CLOSE TO LATEST                      
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FRIDAY/S MAXES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO THE MID              
60S ACROSS NRN MAINE WHERE ELY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAFL                   
LIMITING MUCH WARMING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
GMOS WAS LOADED AND THEN ADJUSTED COMPARING IT TO THE LATEST                    
ECMWF AND GFS ENS.                                                              
BIGGEST CONCERN IS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW                  
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE W/BRINGING RAFL INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY                 
NIGHT WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS40 HAS HIGH PRES DROPPING DOWN                   
ACROSS THE CWA. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH GIVEN SUCH A DISPARITY.                
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS ENS DOES SHOW SOME SUPPORT OF THE                      
OPERATIONAL GFS40. THEREFORE...DECISION WAS TO LEAN W/A DRIER                   
SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY KEEPING CHC POPS ACROSS                 
THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOWS              
SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING E BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES                 
IS FCST TO TRACK THROUGH WRN QUEBEC ON MONDAY BRINGING A FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION W/INCREASING CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND                    
POSSIBLE TSTMS. GMOS POPS SHOWED 40% FOR THE CWA MONDAY INTO                    
TUESDAY AND ATTM SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THEM. A MODEST                   
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES ESP MINIMUMS AS CLOUDS AND              
SSW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO RETURN.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                   
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT                   
REMAIN VFR OVER DOWNEAST AREAS.                                                 
SHORT TERM: LOOKS LIKE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS RIGHT INTO THURSDAY                  
NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE                
LATER ON FRIDAY TO VFR AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER S AND SOME DRIER               
AIR RETURNS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE VFR LOOKS GOOD INTO THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
DRIER AIR WILL BRING GOOD VISIBILITIES TODAY.                                   
SHORTER TERM: NO HEADLINE ES FORESEEN ATTM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO            
THE WNAWAVE ESP LAST FEW PERIODS TO LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS BACK 1-2                 
FT. LOOKS LIKE SWELL GENERATION AS ESE FLOW SETS UP.                            
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...DUDA/BLOOMER                                                        
SHORT TERM...HEWITT                                                             
LONG TERM...HEWITT                                                              
AVIATION...BLOOMER                                                              
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
229 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS                   
EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT                  
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
HIGH PRES OVER THE RGN WL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WX TDA. DRY                      
AIRMASS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A                
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA. WENT WITH NAM/FWC BLEND (BLO WARM MAV              
GUIDANCE)...YIELDING HIGHS TDA INTO LWR 90S FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR                
VA/NC (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). COOLER U80S/ARND 90 AT                       
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE (L/M80S IVOF OXB-WAL). WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE                   
WINDS AND LOOKING AT MIXED LAYER RUC13 LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE                 
WEST TO LOWER 50S OTHERWISE MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. ALONG THE               
COAST DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE ERY THU...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO                     
STRENGTHEN. HIGHS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S BOTH DAYS...WITH             
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEMES POINTING TWDS THU AS THE                   
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN APPLIED A MAV/FWC BLEND FOR               
MAX T...RESULTING IN MID 90S (WITH A FEW UPR 90S) INLAND                        
THU...L/M 90S INTO TIDEWATER AND COASTAL LOCALES (XCEPT IMMEDIATE               
COASTLINE). THESE VALUES ARE AGAIN JUST BLO MAV GUID...BUT ARE A                
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOCAL TKNS SCHEMES WUD DICTATE. KEPT ISO                
WORDING FOR TSRA FOR BOTH AFTNS FOR SOME TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN               
CONVECTION. WHILE MIDLVL CAP APPEARS STRONG...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A              
FEW RENEGADE STORMS POPPING UP (PWATS INCREASE MODESTLY BY THU                  
AFTN). SPC HAS SRN HALF OF CWA IN GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR THU.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
VRY WRM AND RATHER HUMID THRU THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SLGT OR SML             
CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU MON...DUE TO THE                 
APPROACH AND SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRNT. THE BNDRY WILL LIKELY MOVE            
OFF THE CST DURING TUE...SO HAVE SLGT OR SML CHCS IN ERN CNTIES.                
ALTHO TEMPS MAY END UP WRMER...GOING WITH HI`S RANGING FM THE MID               
80S TO LWR 90S AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FM THE              
MID 60S TO LWR 70S.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE UP BAY TO AFFECT COASTAL SITES TONIGHT                
(ECG/ORF/PHF) WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT ORF. OTW...SMOKE FROM THE              
TWO ONGOING FIRES THE MAIN CONCERN INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT AND                  
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTN ARE KEEPING THE SMOKE PLUMES NEAR THE                  
FIRES. SURGE THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING PLUME TO PHF...THEN A                    
SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 04Z SHOULD BRING SMOKE TO ORF/ECG.          
CHANCE OF SUPER FOG AGAIN THUR MORN AT ECG/ORF...ESP IF WINDS/MIXING            
DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR TOWARDS 08Z.                                           
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE REGION...LIMITING CHANCES OF                      
PRECIP/KEEPING VFR CONDS...INTO SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF                        
WIDESPREAD REDUCES AVN CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD                
OF CD FROPA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFFSHR AND IN CONTROL INTO THE WKND...RESULTING IN             
PREVAILING SSW FLO (AOB 15 KT). HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR SRLY SURGE           
TONIGHT AS HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE...WINDS ACROSS SRN CHES BAY TO GUST              
TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM 21Z TO 05Z. WK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW                 
SAT NGT/SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
CURRENT SMOKE PLUMES MOVING NORTH FROM THE FIRES OVER PARTS OF                  
HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. LOOKING AT                     
TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND STREAMLINES SHOWS THE SEA BREEZES HOLDING               
THE SMOKE TO THE WEST UNTIL EVENING. BY TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
FOR MORE DENSE FOG FORMING WITH THE SMOKE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES                
OVER LARGER AREAS. ISSUED NPW FOR DENSE SMOKE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE              
BEEN AROUND A MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
LOOKS LIKE A HOT FINISH FOR JUNE (WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN HOT).                  
THROUGH THE 24TH...RIC AVG TEMP IS 78.2 F...AND ORF IS 78.3 F.                  
BASED ON CURRENT FCST FOR NEXT 6 DAYS...APPEARS AS IF 2008 WILL RANK            
AS EITHER 2ND OR 3RD WARMEST ALL TIME FOR RICHMOND AND 3RD OR 4TH               
WARMEST ALL TIME AT NORFOLK.                                                    
_______________5 HOTTEST JUNES (AVG TEMPERATURE)_______________                 
RANK........RICHMOND...........NORFOLK.........                                 
 1........79.2 F (1943)......80.1 F (1943)                                      
 2........78.8 F (1895)......79.5 F (1994)                                      
 3........78.4 F (1892)......78.8 F (1934)                                      
 4......**78.2 F (2008)**....78.5 F (1952)                                      
 5........78.1 F (1890)......78.48F (1989)                                      
OTHER NOTABLE POSSIBILITIES...                                                  
.RICHMOND...                                                                    
***AVG HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH WILL LIKELY BE                            
HIGHEST ALL TIME (90.0 F IN 1984 IS CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST).                     
***IF THE NEXT 6 DAYS (25TH-30TH) ALL HIT 90F (OR HIGHER)...WILL                
 THEN HAVE 20 DAYS OF 90+ THIS JUNE (WHICH WOULD TIE 1943 FOR THE               
 MOST).                                                                         
.NORFOLK...                                                                     
***AVG HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONTH HAS A CHANCE TO BE HIGHEST ALL                
TIME (88.8 F IN 1943 IS CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST).                                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT              
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MAM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JAB/MAM                                                             
SHORT TERM...MAM                                                                
LONG TERM...ALS/TMG                                                             
AVIATION...BAJ                                                                  
MARINE...ALB/BAJ                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...ALB                                                              
CLIMATE...LKB                                                                   
</pre> md                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1001 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK               
SURFACE LOW OVER THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN WITH SHALLOW COOL FRONT EXTENDING SW     
THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  WEAK SURFACE             
HIGH HAS NUDGED IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                             
MICHIGAN...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENCE HAS             
DRIED THE REGION SUBSTANTIALLY ALOFT EXCEPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS               
CIRRUS.  HOWEVER...COLUMN LOOKS TO MOISTEN IN EARNEST JUDGING BY 00Z            
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS FROM GRB/MPX AHEAD OF A MCV OVER WESTERN                     
WISCONSIN.  DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS MCV MOVES             
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A                 
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP            
THE MORE CLOUDIER SKIES SOUTH OF M-72.  A COUPLE OTHER NUISANT WX               
ITEMS TO DEAL WITH OVERNIGHT.  FIRST...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING               
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MAINTAINED MARINE FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS THE                
EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND NW WINDS HAVE BEEN FUNNELING THE                 
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY AND INTO THE SOO AT TIMES.  WINDS              
SHOULD STAY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND AM               
HARD PRESSED TO FIND A REASON FOR THE FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE.                 
SECOND...PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT/NE LOWER DID NOT             
MIX OUT AS WELL AS LOCATIONS TO THEIR SW...AND MAY SEE PATCHY FOG               
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BARRING THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT HINDER TEMPS              
TOO MUCH.  OTHER THAN THESE MINOR CHANGES...JUST A FEW OTHER TWEAKS             
BUT JUST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                                         
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
AVIATION...QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR LOCAL TAF SITES AS JUST HIGH                  
CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS MOVE OVER THE AREA.                   
HOWEVER...MAY HAVE TO ADD LOWER VSBYS FOR THE TAFS SITES EARLY                  
TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS               
IN REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND WILL SEE HOW TEMPS RESPOND THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE ADDING FOG TO TAFS. OTHERWISE...WX GOES DOWNHILL                 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE GREAT                 
LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TVC FIRST BY MID-                  
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY PLN/APN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS            
AND POSSIBLY CIGS.                                                              
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF OUR CWA LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING             
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. LINGERING CU FIELD ACROSS THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA             
IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.                 
ISOLD WEAK CONVECTION IS STILL TRYING TO FIRE AROUND NRN SAGINAW BAY            
ALONG OUR SE BORDER...BUT IS HAVING A HARD TIME STAYING TOGETHER AS             
IT SUCCUMBS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND STABILITY. ONE MORE QUIET              
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR NRN MICHIGAN BEFORE CONVECTION AGAIN GEARS UP             
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE...WITH WAVES OF CONVECTION               
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW                 
STALLS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES.                                                
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING WEAK CONVECTION AROUND SAGINAW BAY SHOULD               
COME TO A CLOSE BEFORE 00Z. THEREAFTER...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY             
WX CAN BE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO              
INCREASE ACROSS THE SW CWA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT                 
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO            
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                       
FRIDAY...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO OUR AREA...REACHING A              
LINE FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY TO SE LOWER                   
MICHIGAN BY 00Z SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE (1000-500 MB RH OF 90 PCT)             
WILL POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT TO GO AROUND...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF              
DPVA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I305) DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS              
IT LIFTS INTO OUR CWA. ENHANCED 850 MB THETA E VALUES WILL ADVECT               
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. WIND FIELDS WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK FRIDAY              
MORNING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LL JET            
MAX WILL NOSE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY...AS 850 MB WINDS            
INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM CHANCE POPS                  
CREEPING INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 DURING THE                      
MORNING...SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA IN THE            
AFTERNOON. NE HALF WILL SE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY                
FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE             
WARM FRONT. REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL...BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE             
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...BEST                         
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WITH PEAK HEATING AND FRONT IS NEARING             
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S             
AND LOWER 80S.                                                                  
LONG TERM...LOOKS TO BE A STORMY WEEKEND WITH A BREAK IN THE EARLY              
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN            
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO MAKE SOME DISTINCTION BETWEEN                
RAIN AND NO RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH THE GFS SUFFERING FROM              
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA,              
TRIED TO BLEND LEANING TOWARD THE LESS CONTAMINATED MODEL, THE NAM              
FOR GUIDANCE.                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...INITIALLY, THE MODELS LOOK SIMILAR THROUGH              
ABOUT 06Z, WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING UP THROUGH N LOWER. IT LOOKS              
LIKE THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MOST OF N LOWER,                
THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE RAIN MOVES INTO NE LOWER AND E UPPER.                  
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS IN THE 500 MB JET             
(THE DIFLUENT AXIS OF THE JET RUNS THROUGH MICHIGAN). THERE WILL BE             
AT THE LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF THE STATE. THE CHANCES FOR             
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER              
CAPE (AN APPROXIMATION FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE), LI, SI, AND 700-500 MB            
LAPSE RATES ARE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY THING TO              
WORRY ABOUT IS THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT AS THE LOW STACKS UP IN                  
WISCONSIN/W UPPER AROUND 18Z. WHICH WITH THE BULK SHEAR BEGIN GET               
INTO THE LOWER 40 KT RANGE AGAIN.                                               
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 500 MB LOW BEGINNING TO MEANDER OVER THE              
REGION, WOULD EXPECT THAT THE SFC BASED COMPONENT WITH THE CLOUDS               
AND THE LOSS OF SOLAR RADIATION. SO HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE               
SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW WILL TEND TO BE HIT AND MISS TO AN EXTENT.                
ALSO BY 12Z BOTH MODELS ARE BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR AS THE 850               
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 10C.                                                    
SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO AROUND 7C/KM,             
WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER US, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY.                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB LOW, WHICH IS FILLING, MOVES THROUGH SO               
WILL CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
EXTENDED (MONDAY THRU THURSDAY)...MONDAY, WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST              
OF THE REGION, THERE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS, PROBABLY IN THE MORNING,             
AND THEN CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT BEING 4 DAYS OUT, WON`T             
GET CUTE. TUESDAY, THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF THE REGION AND              
SF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SO DRY THROUGH THE DAY            
AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL              
PROBABLY MOVE INTO E UPPER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY,             
AS A LOW TRACKS INTO JAMES BAY, THE COLD FRONT DESCENDS AND BRINGS A            
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY, THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE                  
REGION SO MORE FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
215 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DUE TO LAST NIGHTS RAIN/LIGHT WINDS/50S DEWPOINTS...WIDESPREAD FOG              
DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN UPR MI              
LATE LAST NIGHT. NW/N WINDS OVR LK SUPERIOR AND IN AREAS EAST OF                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO WHITEFISH POINT WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW                
CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTN...AT LEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FOG                
OVR KEWEENAW IS ALREADY LIFTING...DUE TO WEAK ADVECTION OF DRY AIR              
HANGING OUT OVR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/FOG                  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                 
SHORE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND             
STILL WARM H85/H8 TEMPS LEAD TO MAX TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S            
OVR SCNTRL SECTIONS AWAY FM BAY OF GREEN BAY. MODIFIED GRB SOUNDING             
FOR T/TD OF 85/63 AND THAT DID GIVE SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER               
...DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT AS IS SOME CAPPING AROUND 750MB AND             
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWERS IS NIL. ABOUT THE ONLY TRIGGER              
WOULD BE LAKE BREEZE FRONT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WOULD APPEAR            
TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND NOT SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ANY CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (530 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE              
SVR STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND.                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS            
THE NRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS            
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE NOW SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM              
THE WEST AS MID LVL RDGG AND SUBSIDENCE NOSE INTO THE AREA.                     
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (UPR 50S TO LOW 60S) AND FOG             
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER THE              
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO                 
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING UNDER MID-LVL RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE. 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 12C MIXING TO THE SFC SHOULD YIELD            
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (LOWER 70S) NEAR THE GREAT LAKES              
AND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE SFC HIGH ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HIGH               
LVL CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE AHEAD OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT            
LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
EAST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                             
FRIDAY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF AND SREF             
MODELS AS THE GFS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL GEM LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ALL THESE MODELS BRING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO             
THE AREA ON FRI AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE             
NRN PLAINS. 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL               
SUPPORT THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS               
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER                    
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW               
WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS            
WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT              
SOME STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (13-14 KFT)                
SHOULD  LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. SPC STILL HAS THE ENTIRE U.P IN A              
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FOR THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.                             
FRI NIGHT...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING            
PCPN CHANCES. FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND             
SREF WITH THIS FEATURE SO KEPT IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA.                                                
SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED THE NCEP PREFERRED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN               
WITH MVMT OF THE UPR LOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z                
ECMWF RUN. FCST 500 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-18C WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL            
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN...WITH NRLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY              
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR             
SHOWERS BUT TSTM SHOULD CHANCES SHOULD BE DWINDLING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
W WINDS BRINGING IN STABLE AIR/CLEAR SKIES AT CMX SHOULD LAST INTO              
THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE IS              
SOME WIND AND BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ON FRI MORNING AT CMX...SE/E                 
WINDS DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CNTRL MN. WIND DIRECTION               
AND FOG OUT OVR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY RESULT IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS                  
RETURNING TO THE AIRPORT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SAW THROUGH                
THIS EVENING...THEN SINCE THERE IS STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...MAY SEE RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT AT              
SAW. ENOUGH WIND JUST OFF SFC SHOULD KEEP VSBY FM FALLING TOO MUCH.             
SCT-BKN CU/SC EXPECTED ON FRI AT SAW AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS                  
TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF              
TIL LATE FRI AFTN.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING             
WINDS WILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL               
TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE LOW CAUSING WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS            
FOR A PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                    
SUNDAY...THE LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO LESS AN 20 KNOTS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DUE TO LAST NIGHTS RAIN/LIGHT WINDS/50S DEWPOINTS...WIDESPREAD FOG              
DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN UPR MI              
LATE LAST NIGHT. NW/N WINDS OVR LK SUPERIOR AND IN AREAS EAST OF                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO WHITEFISH POINT WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND LOW                
CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTN...AT LEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. FOG                
OVR KEWEENAW IS ALREADY LIFTING...DUE TO WEAK ADVECTION OF DRY AIR              
HANGING OUT OVR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS/FOG                  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR                 
SHORE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND             
STILL WARM H85/H8 TEMPS LEAD TO MAX TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S            
OVR SCNTRL SECTIONS AWAY FM BAY OF GREEN BAY. MODIFIED GRB SOUNDING             
FOR T/TD OF 85/63 AND THAT DID GIVE SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER               
...DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT AS IS SOME CAPPING AROUND 750MB AND             
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWERS IS NIL. ABOUT THE ONLY TRIGGER              
WOULD BE LAKE BREEZE FRONT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THAT WOULD APPEAR            
TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND NOT SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ANY CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (530 AM EDT)...                                                     
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE              
SVR STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND.                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS            
THE NRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS            
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE NOW SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM              
THE WEST AS MID LVL RDGG AND SUBSIDENCE NOSE INTO THE AREA.                     
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (UPR 50S TO LOW 60S) AND FOG             
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER THE              
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO                 
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING UNDER MID-LVL RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE. 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 12C MIXING TO THE SFC SHOULD YIELD            
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (LOWER 70S) NEAR THE GREAT LAKES              
AND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE SFC HIGH ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HIGH               
LVL CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE AHEAD OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT            
LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
EAST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                             
FRIDAY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF AND SREF             
MODELS AS THE GFS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL GEM LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ALL THESE MODELS BRING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO             
THE AREA ON FRI AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE             
NRN PLAINS. 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL               
SUPPORT THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS               
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER                    
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW               
WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS            
WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT              
SOME STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (13-14 KFT)                
SHOULD  LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. SPC STILL HAS THE ENTIRE U.P IN A              
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FOR THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.                             
FRI NIGHT...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING            
PCPN CHANCES. FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND             
SREF WITH THIS FEATURE SO KEPT IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA.                                                
SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED THE NCEP PREFERRED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN               
WITH MVMT OF THE UPR LOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z                
ECMWF RUN. FCST 500 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-18C WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL            
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN...WITH NRLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY              
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR             
SHOWERS BUT TSTM SHOULD CHANCES SHOULD BE DWINDLING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS INDICATED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG                
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                   
UPSLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LIFR CONDITIONS IN                     
FOG/STRATUS APPEAR LIKELY THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WHEN CONDITIONS              
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST            
OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH               
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING             
WINDS WILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL               
TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE LOW CAUSING WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS            
FOR A PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                    
SUNDAY...THE LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO LESS AN 20 KNOTS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/DLG                                                          
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
731 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE              
SVR STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND.                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS            
THE NRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS            
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. IR SATELLITE NOW SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM              
THE WEST AS MID LVL RDGG AND SUBSIDENCE NOSE INTO THE AREA.                     
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (UPR 50S TO LOW 60S) AND FOG             
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVER THE              
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO                 
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING UNDER MID-LVL RIDGING            
AND SUBSIDENCE. 800 MB TEMPS NEAR 12C MIXING TO THE SFC SHOULD YIELD            
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. LAKE BREEZES                      
DEVELOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (LOWER 70S) NEAR THE GREAT LAKES              
AND OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
THE SFC HIGH ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HIGH               
LVL CLOUDS FROM THE SW LATE AHEAD OF NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT            
LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
EAST WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                             
FRIDAY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF AND SREF             
MODELS AS THE GFS AND EVEN THE GLOBAL GEM LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY                
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ALL THESE MODELS BRING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO             
THE AREA ON FRI AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE             
NRN PLAINS. 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL               
SUPPORT THE INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS               
THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS                
WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS SINCE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER                    
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW               
WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS            
WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND               
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT              
SOME STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (13-14 KFT)                
SHOULD  LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT. SPC STILL HAS THE ENTIRE U.P IN A              
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR FOR THE DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.                             
FRI NIGHT...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES...A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA REDUCING            
PCPN CHANCES. FOLLOWED THE PREFERRED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND             
SREF WITH THIS FEATURE SO KEPT IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST            
POPS OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA.                                                
SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED THE NCEP PREFERRED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN               
WITH MVMT OF THE UPR LOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z                
ECMWF RUN. FCST 500 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-18C WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL            
SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SUN...WITH NRLY LOW                
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY              
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR             
SHOWERS BUT TSTM SHOULD CHANCES SHOULD BE DWINDLING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS INDICATED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FOG                
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                   
UPSLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LIFR CONDITIONS IN                     
FOG/STRATUS APPEAR LIKELY THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z...WHEN CONDITIONS              
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST            
OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH               
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING             
WINDS WILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL                 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON                 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL               
TIGHTEN FOLLOWING THE LOW CAUSING WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS            
FOR A PERIOD OVER CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY                    
SUNDAY...THE LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER            
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO LESS AN 20 KNOTS             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON/DLG                                                          
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
140 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.P. ARE SLIDING ESE EARLY THIS            
MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR KAPN/KPLN GIVEN STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE                
SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. BIGGEST FOCUS IS ON VISBYS/CIGS WITH                      
PSEUDO-WARM FRONT SLIPPING NORTH THRU 12Z IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING             
SFC COOL FRONT. ALREADY SEEING EXPANDING STRATUS DECK ALONG THIS                
BOUNDARY...WITH KTVC/KAPN STANDING THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING AT LEAST             
A TEMPORARY IFR CEILING/VISBY CREEP IN THRU SUNRISE. WILL ALSO BE               
WATCHING EXPANSIVE LAKE STRATUS DECK RUNNING THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE              
MICHIGAN...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BE PUSHED INLAND TOWARD KTVC/KPLN AS               
INCOMING COOL FRONT SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD SUNRISE.                  
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED (PERHAPS BROKEN FOR A TIME) CU TO               
FIRE THRU THE AFTN AS THERMAL TROUGH SLIPS OVERHEAD (SIMILAR TO                 
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS YESTERDAY) BEFORE LOW LEVEL DRYING WINS OUT BY              
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME 15-21Z            
GIVEN MODESTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF LOW                
LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO PENETRATE TOWARD KAPN/KTVC            
BY MID AFTN.                                                                    
MPC/LAWRENCE                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                             
UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK                
SURFACE LOW TRANSVERSING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.  SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS...ALL SUB-SEVERE...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF              
THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME HELP FROM ADDED                
CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF LAKE BREEZES.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS              
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS EASTERN ALGER COUNTY                 
WHERE LOWER THETAE AIR RESIDES.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE             
BEEN REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD              
OF MINNESOTA.  FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE                          
TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...HAS BEEN DORMANT              
IN REGARDS TO IGNITING CONVECTION DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES JUDGING BY              
00Z GRB SOUNDING AS WARMING AIR SURGES NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER NE LOWER THIS EVENING            
BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
OVER MOST LOCALES.                                                              
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS              
TREK EAST AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION             
AHEAD OF ITS SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGEST (ALBEIT PRETTY MODEST)                   
700-500MB QG FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER CLOSEST TO THE            
SHORTWAVE WITH A LITTLE 850-700MB -DIVQ CLIPPING NORTHERN LOWER                 
TOWARDS THE TIP OF THE MITT.  WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS...18Z NAM SHOWS            
300-600 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z...BUT                   
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE U.P. APPEARS SURFACE BASED AND SHOULD             
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES.  THE NAM ALSO TRIES             
TO DEVELOP A MODEST 25-30KT LLJ THAT POKES INTO EASTERN UPPER AFTER             
03Z THAT CAN BOOST CONVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW                 
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.  THIS SEEMS TO POINT TOWARDS THE CONVECTION             
SURVIVING THE MARCH AS IT REACHES WHITEFISH POINT TO THE SOO LATER              
TONIGHT AND WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY.  OVER NORTHERN                         
LOWER...ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAKES             
ME THINK CAPPING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP            
DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP.  LACK OF UPPER LEVEL                   
SUPPORT...AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH DOES               
NOT HELP EITHER.  HOWEVER...STILL A LITTLE WARY OF REMOVING PRECIP              
ALTOGETHER GIVEN ELEVATED INCOMING THETAE BOOST.  SO WILL HEDGE AND             
GO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ANALYSIS SHOWS               
PAIR OF EARLIER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT LOBES...ONE OVER SOUTHERN             
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE OTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAKING              
THEIR WAY EAST IN BROAD ZONAL WEST FLOW THAT LIES ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AS FEARED...DESPITE SOMEWHAT                
INCREASING SUPPORT...AFTERNOON MIXING AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL CAP             
PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN (BESIDES SOME             
REMNANT SPRINKLES MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS GLADWIN AND ARENAC                    
COUNTIES FROM EARLIER DOWNSTATE CONVECTION). OTHERWISE... PLENTY OF             
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE              
RIDGE AXIS HAS LEAD TO A RATHER WARM SUMMER DAY...WITH AFTERNOON                
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. FARTHER                               
UPSTREAM...POTENTIAL NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST IS NORTHERN                 
MINNESOTA LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE/COLD               
FRONT MAKING STEADY EAST PROGRESS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT AND                
THURSDAY CENTER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS COLD FRONT PIVOTS               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
TONIGHT...THINKING THAT ANY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE...WITH ALL            
ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO UPSTREAM APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT               
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS CONVERGENCE AXIS WORKS ON               
1500+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK EAST             
THIS EVENING FOLLOWING MOISTURE AXIS...PUSHING INTO EASTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL QUESTIONS ARISE AS            
OVERALL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.            
THUS...FEEL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL                   
FOLLOW SUITE AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL TAPER POPS                
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...NOT BRINGING IN CHANCE WORDING TO               
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...REGION             
REMAINS OUT OF LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WORDING...WHICH SEEMS                     
SUPPORTED BY BETTER BULK SHEAR REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND                  
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>13.0 KFT). STILL...THINKING THE               
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAILS AND BRIEF GUSTY            
WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER                      
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING            
AS PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO QUEBEC. WHILE MODELS REMAIN DRY DURING THE            
MORNING...HATE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM                 
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD GET QUITE                   
INTERESTING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA IF COLD FRONT               
STALLS FROM INTENSE MORNING WARMING. MODIFYING A NAM-WRF SOUNDING               
(IGNORING OVERZEALOUS LOW 70 DEWPOINTS) YIELDS 1500+ J/KG MEAN LAYER            
CAPE. WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION FOR THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH 21Z                
BEFORE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. OTHER                
STORY WILL BE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PUSHING THE              
UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST OF WEST BRANCH. FARTHER NORTH...MID 70S TO LOWER            
80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ALONG               
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                                    
MSB                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECT A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT            
WITH WEAK RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                   
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.            
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION (MORE ON THIS SYSTEM              
BELOW). BEST INSTABILITY AND 850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL              
SW OF OUR CWA OVER KANSAS...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS (AN AREA THAT                 
CERTAINLY DOES NOT NEED MORE RAIN). EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF SVR TSRA              
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND BETTER WIND                 
SHEAR EXIST. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH MODEST WIND SHEAR...CAPES APPROACHING 1000             
J/KG AND THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE AXIS JUST UPSTREAM. WILL MAINTAIN             
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW            
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SE OUT OF S            
CENTRAL CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SURFACE REFLECTION                
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW...                   
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE STATE               
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SYSTEM IS UNSEASONABLY             
STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODELS STILL SUGGEST              
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT               
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.            
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF               
WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE              
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE              
STACKED LOW MOVES THRU NRN MICHIGAN AND THEN STALLS OVER LAKE HURON.            
CHANCE POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY AS AMPLE LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY                  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES. MONDAY NIGHT              
THRU WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING/DRIER AIR               
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS            
IN THE 50S THRU THE PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1010 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK               
SURFACE LOW TRANSVERSING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.  SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS...ALL SUB-SEVERE...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF              
THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME HELP FROM ADDED                
CONVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF LAKE BREEZES.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS              
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS EASTERN ALGER COUNTY WHERE           
LOWER THETAE AIR RESIDES.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE BEEN              
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF                
MINNESOTA.  FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH              
EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...HAS BEEN DORMANT IN REGARDS TO               
IGNITING CONVECTION DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES JUDGING BY 00Z GRB                    
SOUNDING AS WARMING AIR SURGES NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  CLOSER TO               
HOME...A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER NE LOWER THIS EVENING BUT                  
QUICKLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER             
MOST LOCALES.                                                                   
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS              
TREK EAST AS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION             
AHEAD OF ITS SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGEST (ALBEIT PRETTY MODEST)                   
700-500MB QG FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER CLOSEST TO THE            
SHORTWAVE WITH A LITTLE 850-700MB -DIVQ CLIPPING NORTHERN LOWER                 
TOWARDS THE TIP OF THE MITT.  WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS...18Z NAM SHOWS            
300-600 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z...BUT                   
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE U.P. APPEARS SURFACE BASED AND SHOULD             
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES.  THE NAM ALSO TRIES             
TO DEVELOP A MODEST 25-30KT LLJ THAT POKES INTO EASTERN UPPER AFTER             
03Z THAT CAN BOOST CONVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW                 
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.  THIS SEEMS TO POINT TOWARDS THE CONVECTION             
SURVIVING THE MARCH AS IT REACHES WHITEFISH POINT TO THE SOO LATER              
TONIGHT AND WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY.  OVER NORTHERN                         
LOWER...ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAKES             
ME THINK CAPPING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP            
DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP.  LACK OF UPPER LEVEL                   
SUPPORT...AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH DOES               
NOT HELP EITHER.  HOWEVER...STILL A LITTLE WARY OF REMOVING PRECIP              
ALTOGETHER GIVEN ELEVATED INCOMING THETAE BOOST.  SO WILL HEDGE AND             
GO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT.                               
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE AVIATION                         
DEPARTMENT TONIGHT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A                
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DRAGGING A SURFACE                  
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.                    
NARROW CORRIDOR OF A JUICIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER AND                     
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOW MUCH LIFT IS THE KEY QUESTION                     
WHETHER THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL                 
REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND A SHOWER COULD SNEAK INTO PLN                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE LIFT WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR PRECIP              
AT TVC/APN. SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE                  
TROUGH. ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS BY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY              
ERODE ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT POP UP AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT APN                
WHERE A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP A FEW CLOUDS AROUND.                     
MPC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS PAIR OF EARLIER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT LOBES...ONE            
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE OTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL                   
WISCONSIN...MAKING THEIR WAY EAST IN BROAD ZONAL WEST FLOW THAT LIES            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AS FEARED...DESPITE              
SOMEWHAT INCREASING SUPPORT...AFTERNOON MIXING AND PRESENCE OF MID              
LEVEL CAP PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN                 
(BESIDES SOME REMNANT SPRINKLES MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS GLADWIN AND             
ARENAC COUNTIES FROM EARLIER DOWNSTATE CONVECTION). OTHERWISE...                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING            
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS LEAD TO A RATHER WARM SUMMER DAY...WITH                  
AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. FARTHER                     
UPSTREAM...POTENTIAL NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST IS NORTHERN                 
MINNESOTA LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE/COLD               
FRONT MAKING STEADY EAST PROGRESS. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT AND                
THURSDAY CENTER ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS COLD FRONT PIVOTS               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
TONIGHT...THINKING THAT ANY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE WANE...WITH ALL            
ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO UPSTREAM APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT               
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS CONVERGENCE AXIS WORKS ON               
1500+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK EAST             
THIS EVENING FOLLOWING MOISTURE AXIS...PUSHING INTO EASTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL QUESTIONS ARISE AS            
OVERALL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.            
THUS...FEEL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL                   
FOLLOW SUITE AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL TAPER POPS                
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...NOT BRINGING IN CHANCE WORDING TO               
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...REGION             
REMAINS OUT OF LATEST SPC SLIGHT RISK WORDING...WHICH SEEMS                     
SUPPORTED BY BETTER BULK SHEAR REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND                  
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>13.0 KFT). STILL...THINKING THE               
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAILS AND BRIEF GUSTY            
WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER                      
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING            
AS PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO QUEBEC. WHILE MODELS REMAIN DRY DURING THE            
MORNING...HATE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM                 
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD GET QUITE                   
INTERESTING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA IF COLD FRONT               
STALLS FROM INTENSE MORNING WARMING. MODIFYING A NAM-WRF SOUNDING               
(IGNORING OVERZEALOUS LOW 70 DEWPOINTS) YIELDS 1500+ J/KG MEAN LAYER            
CAPE. WILL KEEP LOW POP MENTION FOR THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH 21Z                
BEFORE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. OTHER                
STORY WILL BE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PUSHING THE              
UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST OF WEST BRANCH. FARTHER NORTH...MID 70S TO LOWER            
80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ALONG               
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.                                                    
MSB                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECT A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT            
WITH WEAK RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                   
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.            
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION (MORE ON THIS SYSTEM              
BELOW). BEST INSTABILITY AND 850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL              
SW OF OUR CWA OVER KANSAS...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS (AN AREA THAT                 
CERTAINLY DOES NOT NEED MORE RAIN). EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF SVR TSRA              
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND BETTER WIND                 
SHEAR EXIST. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH MODEST WIND SHEAR...CAPES APPROACHING 1000             
J/KG AND THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE AXIS JUST UPSTREAM. WILL MAINTAIN             
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW            
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND            
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SE OUT OF S            
CENTRAL CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SURFACE REFLECTION                
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW...                   
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE STATE               
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SYSTEM IS UNSEASONABLY             
STRONG AND VERY DYNAMIC. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODELS STILL SUGGEST              
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT               
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.            
HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF               
WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE              
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE              
STACKED LOW MOVES THRU NRN MICHIGAN AND THEN STALLS OVER LAKE HURON.            
CHANCE POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY AS AMPLE LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY                  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES. MONDAY NIGHT              
THRU WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING/DRIER AIR               
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS            
IN THE 50S THRU THE PERIOD.                                                     
AVIATION... /ISSUED 140 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/                                 
BESIDES SOME SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS...ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL DAY                   
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL.               
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE                      
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE THREAT OF SOME WIDELY                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME...MUCH UNCERTAINTY                   
EXISTS REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND                        
STORMS...SO HAVE SIMPLY LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS. WIND SHIFT                
TO MORE WNW EXPECTED THURSDAY.                                                  
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
142 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT WED)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. ONE SHRTWV                
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A LINE OF ISOLD SHRA EARLY                
THIS MORNING STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A               
SFC TROF INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER            
SRN MANITOBA WILL BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE SRN SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS                   
SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM IA AND SRN MN. FCST TEMP/DEWPOINTS            
NEAR 80/60 WOULD INDICATE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. IF THIS            
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF               
40-50KT TO LEAD TO A FEW ISOLD SVR STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL             
DRIER (MID-UPR 50S) DEWPOINTS MIX TO THE SFC SIMILAR TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND LIMIT AND/OR INHIBIT CONVECTION. LOOKING AT              
HOW DRY UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND KMPX ARE...I CERTAINLY THINK             
THAT THE NAM AND GFS MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE OVERDONE. IF DRY AIR ALOFT             
DOES LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IT WILL HARD TO                 
BREAK THROUGH MID LVL CAP AT 750 MB. SPC MUST ALSO BE THINKING ALONG            
LINES OF A REDUCED THREAT OR DRIER SOLN AS THEY HAVE DROPPED OUR CWA            
OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1. WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON THE HWO AND DROP               
RISK OF SVR TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS                
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. KEPT LOW CHC POPS              
GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON             
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON TAIL END OF DEPARTING            
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU AS DNVA/RIDGING MOVE IN              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY             
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER                   
READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES AS LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOP UNDER WEAK GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                        
FRI...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND             
CARVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST HALF AND SPREAD            
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR LOW. SPC STILL INDICATES A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON                
INTO FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GFS FCST OF MLCAPES OF              
500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN DESPITE A DISTURBANCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES                
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER LAKE               
SUPERIOR...WITH ONLY SHORT TOP CUMULUS POPPING UP OVER LAND THUS                
FAR. WENT WITH TEMPO SHOWERS AT CMX...WITH A BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AT SAW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                  
GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE            
EXITING DISTURBANCE AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST OF SAW BY              
06Z. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH BE A WESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS AND              
FEWER CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.                   
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY                
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND WILL OCCUR ON TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS                
THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL VEER NORTH.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
729 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. ONE SHRTWV                
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A LINE OF ISOLD SHRA EARLY                
THIS MORNING STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A               
SFC TROF INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER            
SRN MANITOBA WILL BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE SRN SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS                   
SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM IA AND SRN MN. FCST TEMP/DEWPOINTS            
NEAR 80/60 WOULD INDICATE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. IF THIS            
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF               
40-50KT TO LEAD TO A FEW ISOLD SVR STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL             
DRIER (MID-UPR 50S) DEWPOINTS MIX TO THE SFC SIMILAR TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND LIMIT AND/OR INHIBIT CONVECTION. LOOKING AT              
HOW DRY UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND KMPX ARE...I CERTAINLY THINK             
THAT THE NAM AND GFS MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE OVERDONE. IF DRY AIR ALOFT             
DOES LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IT WILL HARD TO                 
BREAK THROUGH MID LVL CAP AT 750 MB. SPC MUST ALSO BE THINKING ALONG            
LINES OF A REDUCED THREAT OR DRIER SOLN AS THEY HAVE DROPPED OUR CWA            
OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1. WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON THE HWO AND DROP               
RISK OF SVR TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS                
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. KEPT LOW CHC POPS              
GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON             
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON TAIL END OF DEPARTING            
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU AS DNVA/RIDGING MOVE IN              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY             
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER                   
READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES AS LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOP UNDER WEAK GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                        
FRI...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND             
CARVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST HALF AND SPREAD            
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR LOW. SPC STILL INDICATES A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON                
INTO FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GFS FCST OF MLCAPES OF              
500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE                          
TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON                   
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS                
AFTER 18Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.                   
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY                
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND WILL OCCUR ON TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS                
THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL VEER NORTH.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF NOTE. ONE SHRTWV                
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A LINE OF ISOLD SHRA EARLY                
THIS MORNING STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A               
SFC TROF INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER            
SRN MANITOBA WILL BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT                   
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE SRN SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS                   
SUGGEST GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
ADVECTS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES FROM IA AND SRN MN. FCST TEMP/DEWPOINTS            
NEAR 80/60 WOULD INDICATE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. IF THIS            
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...THERE IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF               
40-50KT TO LEAD TO A FEW ISOLD SVR STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL             
DRIER (MID-UPR 50S) DEWPOINTS MIX TO THE SFC SIMILAR TO WHAT                    
HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND LIMIT AND/OR INHIBIT CONVECTION. LOOKING AT              
HOW DRY UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND KMPX ARE...I CERTAINLY THINK             
THAT THE NAM AND GFS MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE OVERDONE. IF DRY AIR ALOFT             
DOES LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IT WILL HARD TO                 
BREAK THROUGH MID LVL CAP AT 750 MB. SPC MUST ALSO BE THINKING ALONG            
LINES OF A REDUCED THREAT OR DRIER SOLN AS THEY HAVE DROPPED OUR CWA            
OUT OF SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY1. WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON THE HWO AND DROP               
RISK OF SVR TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS                
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. KEPT LOW CHC POPS              
GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                                 
WED NIGHT AND THU...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY AFTERNOON             
CONVECTION THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON TAIL END OF DEPARTING            
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU AS DNVA/RIDGING MOVE IN              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS AWAY             
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER                   
READINGS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES AS LAKE BREEZES            
DEVELOP UNDER WEAK GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.                        
FRI...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND             
CARVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST HALF AND SPREAD            
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE                 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR LOW. SPC STILL INDICATES A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON                
INTO FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GFS FCST OF MLCAPES OF              
500-1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT               
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS                  
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS            
AFTER 17Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.                   
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY                
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND WILL OCCUR ON TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS                  
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS                
THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL VEER NORTH.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
138 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON)...                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM             
HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN LAKES...A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE              
UPPER MS VALLEY...AND WSW THROUGH THE NW CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
OVER FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO SW SASK IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WEATHER                
OVER THE WRN LAKES TUE. AT THE SFC... HIGH PRES DOMINATED THE WRN               
GREAT LAKES AS ACYC NRLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT CLEARING OVER MOST OF                 
UPPER MI. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE              
AN AREA OF FOG PERSISTED OVER CNTRL INTO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                             
TONIGHT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS              
TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...EXCEPT OVER THE WEST WHERE                 
INCREASE IN SRLY WINDS LATE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL             
KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S.                                                 
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS MAINLY NORTH OF THE            
CWA...QG FORCING...UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH JET LEFT EXIT REGION AND                
300K-305 ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
BRING SOME PCPN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO W UPPER            
MI TUE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONV VCNTY LAKE BREEZE            
BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT                
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. PROFILE USING HIGHER END SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT                 
VALUES AROUND 77/54 WOULD GIVE MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG             
RANGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO NEAR 35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR              
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND LOW END RISK FOR HAIL TO AROUND A HALF              
INCH.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7)...                                     
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR                
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MOST            
SIGNIFICANT POPS COINCIDING WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE CWA            
THIS WEEKEND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DECIDED TO CONFINE POPS MAINLY TO               
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA AS BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CONVERGENCE              
REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE EAST. AS SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXITS TO THE              
EAST...OPTED TO REMOVE POPS PAST 06Z WED. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL              
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR                         
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A QUICK LOOK AT AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW            
MODEST CAPE VALUES MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF...ANY SEVERE                     
POTENTIAL WOULD BE CONFINED TO HAIL...THOUGH BE IT SMALL..AS DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR IN OUR AREA IS WEAK. IN FACT THE WESTERN U.P. IS IN THE             
SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA ON            
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH LOOKS TO               
DOMINATE U.P. WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT              
ON FRIDAY AS MODEL GUIDANCE/OUTLOOK FROM SPC INDICATES SVR POTENTIAL            
IS QUITE GOOD. OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW...THINK UPCOMING            
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING TO               
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DECIDED TO ADD POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING             
WITH BROAD ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE U.P. ALSO TRENDED             
TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT               
WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS                  
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HINTED AT THIS            
AFTER 17Z WITH -SHRA AND CB AS CIGS FALL TO LOWER VFR RANGE. MAY                
NEED TO CLEARLY MENTION TS IN THE TAFS AS TIME NEARS AND THE                    
POTENTIAL OF AN ACCURATE OCCURRENCE BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH              
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD                
TO WINDS AFTER TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL            
TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES             
SHIFTS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SHIFTS OF WIND ON              
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WED WITH ANY CONVECTION...BUT WINDS SHOULD                 
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH WED AT LEAST.                            
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO THIS OUT LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SOME AREAS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE                 
DIMINISHING TUE AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                     
CENTERED NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO                  
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND                        
WEST...MAINLY CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL                 
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                            
STILL...EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE                  
AREA...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP               
SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. ALSO RAISED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY                 
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MAINLY JUST 1-2 DEGREES...PERHAPS A TAD               
MORE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. SILVER BAY HAD ALREADY REACHED 79 AT                
15Z...BUT A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.               
LATEST RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE PROPAGATES A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                    
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE                  
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY                    
INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED                   
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AS THIS FEATURE WILL BE RUNNING INTO                 
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND RATHER MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DID BRING                 
SILENT POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RUC13 ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES TEMPORARY RIDGING IN MID            
LVLS WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF NWRLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW HAS             
DECOUPLED...WSRVWPDLH SHOWS AVERAGE 320/20KT FLOW FROM 2K TO 5K FT.             
TOUGH CALL ON EARLY MORNING FOG AS POTENTIAL TURBULENT KINETIC                  
ENERGY FROM STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE GROUND LVL MAY GENERATE JUST              
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. WITH SFC T/TD                   
SPREADS ALREADY LESS THAN 2 DEGREES IN MOST OF NORTHEAST MN...WILL              
MENTION AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH.                       
TODAY...LARGE MASS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS WRN CWA                     
THIS MORNING FROM NEBRASKA CONVECTION. 85/30H THICKNESS PATTERN                 
SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS                           
MORNING...OUTRUNNING THE LLJ AND MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM FARTHER                 
WEST. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET DAY AS LL WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ZONES AND HUMIDITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.                    
CONSENSUS OF MDLS IS THAT AREA WILL REMAIN QPF FREE TODAY. SIM WRF              
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT DOES GENERATE CONVECTION LATE TODAY NEAR KOOCH             
COUNTY HOWEVER IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE INITIAL SITUATION HANDLED               
VERY WELL. EXPECT WARM TEMPS TODAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS                
YESTERDAY AS LL THICKNESS/85H TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.               
TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MAIN SYNOPTIC                        
FEATURES/MASS FIELDS. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARISE WITH MULTIPLE                  
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON GFS..AND PERHAPS EC AS WELL. WILL USE             
A MORE AVERAGE APPROACH AS DEPICTED BY LATEST SREF/UKM. THIS BRINGS             
A DEEPENING ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WRN CWA BY EARLY                
FRIDAY MORNING. SFC PATTERN IS COMPLICATED BY POTENTIAL PHASING OF              
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA AND              
ONE EJECTING FROM PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP               
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH TRIPLE POINT NEAR TWIN PORTS BY                   
MIDDAY...REDEVELOPING TOWARDS NWRN WISC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.SPC HAS             
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR OVER SWRN CRNR OF CWA...EXTENDING TO SRN BURNETT             
CO. BY 12Z FRI. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER SLIGHT              
RISK. IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF TWIN              
PORTS AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE SREF IS                
INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE.                                        
EXTENDED...AS ADVERTISED WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG MDL                        
SUITE...ANOMALOUS MID LVL LOW WILL SWEEP INTO REGION FOR THE                    
WEEKEND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS AND LIKELIHOOD OF                     
SHOWERS/TRW WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD                 
BRING SOME DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH DECREASING CHANCE               
OF POPS. MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING              
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO 80S BY TUESDAY.                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR            
CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A               
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN                
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                    
FRONT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY AROUND KBRD EAST              
TOWARD KHYR. WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CAUSE MARINE BASED MVFR             
OR IFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL                
AFFECT KDLH/KASX AND POSSIBLY INTO KHIB.                                        
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  81  56  69  51 /  10  30  60  40                                           
INL  82  52  74  55 /  10  30  60  50                                           
BRD  83  60  75  55 /  10  70  60  30                                           
HYR  84  56  74  55 /  10  50  60  40                                           
ASX  80  56  73  53 /  10  20  60  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BETTWY                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
121 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES AS LL HUMIDITY IS SLOW TO                   
EXIT CWA. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED SFC T/TD TO QUICKLY APPROACH                     
SATURATION ACROSS PARTS OF ARROWHEAD/RANGE/WEST TO CASS LAKE. HAVE              
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER RUC13 925H WINDS STILL                
NW AT 15-20KTS. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL IMPART ENOUGH TURBULENT                   
KINETIC ENERGY TO RESTRICT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.               
AN ARE OF MID CLOUDS WILL SCOOT RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN CWA                          
OVERNIGHT...ALSO TEMPERING RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRED ALONG WARM FRONT DURING THE                   
MID-AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS DECREASED OR HAS                
MOVED OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOLAR HEATING DECREASING                 
AND THE CAP OVER AREA...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT                      
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. THIS WILL GIVE FORECAST AREA               
A BREAK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHS              
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.                      
STEWART                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KINL...WITH           
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH KHIB TO KROS. EARLIER                      
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE                  
ARROWHEAD REGION. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
FOCUSED ON THE ARROWHEAD REGION...AS WELL AS NW WI...THOUGH                     
FORCING FOR CONVECTION QUESTIONABLE OVER NW WI. MSAS ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTING TONGUE OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL TEMPS AND TD`S EXTENDING                  
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM                
KELO DEPICTING LI VALUES -3 TO -4 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...                    
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON              
TAP FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG               
WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY.                       
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING                 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER TS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SRLY              
LLJ INCREASES TO 50KTS FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH                     
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PROPAGATING THROUGH CWA.              
ATTM... BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SW CWA...WHERE MAX                     
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FOCUSED. SEE DAY 2 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC                
FOR DETAILS. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN                
DECENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONFIDENCE NOT              
AS GREAT FRI EVENING...AS GFS SHOWING STRONGER DOUBLE BARREL LOW                
DEVELOPING AND DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SRN ZONES...WITH ECMWF                    
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SFC FEATURE.                                               
WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND WET AS UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH               
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH GFS HANGING ON THROUGH                   
EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH             
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE             
REGION BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR              
OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION            
OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  80  53  69  54 /  10  20  60  30                                           
INL  82  56  74  54 /  10  20  60  40                                           
BRD  83  60  75  56 /  10  50  50  30                                           
HYR  83  55  74  55 /  10  40  60  30                                           
ASX  79  56  73  54 /  10  10  60  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
925 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRED ALONG WARM FRONT DURING THE                  
MID-AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS DECREASED OR HAS                
MOVED OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOLAR HEATING DECREASING                 
AND THE CAP OVER AREA...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT                      
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. THIS WILL GIVE FORECAST AREA               
A BREAK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHS              
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE               
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.                      
STEWART                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KINL...WITH           
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH KHIB TO KROS. EARLIER                      
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE                  
ARROWHEAD REGION. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
FOCUSED ON THE ARROWHEAD REGION...AS WELL AS NW WI...THOUGH                     
FORCING FOR CONVECTION QUESTIONABLE OVER NW WI. MSAS ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTING TONGUE OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL TEMPS AND TD`S EXTENDING                  
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM                
KELO DEPICTING LI VALUES -3 TO -4 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...                    
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON              
TAP FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG               
WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY.                       
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING                 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER TS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SRLY              
LLJ INCREASES TO 50KTS FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH                     
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PROPAGATING THROUGH CWA.              
ATTM... BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SW CWA...WHERE MAX                     
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FOCUSED. SEE DAY 2 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC                
FOR DETAILS. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN                
DECENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONFIDENCE NOT              
AS GREAT FRI EVENING...AS GFS SHOWING STRONGER DOUBLE BARREL LOW                
DEVELOPING AND DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SRN ZONES...WITH ECMWF                    
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SFC FEATURE.                                               
WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND WET AS UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH               
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH GFS HANGING ON THROUGH                   
EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH             
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE             
REGION BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR              
OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION            
OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  54  81  53  69 /  10  10  20  60                                           
INL  51  82  56  74 /  10  10  20  60                                           
BRD  58  84  60  75 /  10  10  50  50                                           
HYR  55  84  55  74 /  10  10  40  60                                           
ASX  54  80  56  73 /  10  10  10  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
STEWART                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KINL...WITH           
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH KHIB TO KROS. EARLIER                      
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE                  
ARROWHEAD REGION. SEVERE WX PARAMETERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
FOCUSED ON THE ARROWHEAD REGION...AS WELL AS NW WI...THOUGH                     
FORCING FOR CONVECTION QUESTIONABLE OVER NW WI. MSAS ANALYSIS                   
DEPICTING TONGUE OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL TEMPS AND TD`S EXTENDING                  
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS FROM                
KELO DEPICTING LI VALUES -3 TO -4 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE                   
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...                    
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON              
TAP FOR THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND. STRONG               
WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY.                       
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING                 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRIGGER TS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SRLY              
LLJ INCREASES TO 50KTS FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH                     
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY PROPAGATING THROUGH CWA.              
ATTM... BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SW CWA...WHERE MAX                     
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FOCUSED. SEE DAY 2 OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC                
FOR DETAILS. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN                
DECENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. CONFIDENCE NOT              
AS GREAT FRI EVENING...AS GFS SHOWING STRONGER DOUBLE BARREL LOW                
DEVELOPING AND DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SRN ZONES...WITH ECMWF                    
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SFC FEATURE.                                               
WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE COOL AND WET AS UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI                
STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH               
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH GFS HANGING ON THROUGH                   
EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH             
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER                
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH            
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE             
REGION BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR              
OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION            
OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  54  81  53  69 /  10  10  20  60                                           
INL  51  82  56  74 /  10  10  20  60                                           
BRD  58  84  60  75 /  10  10  50  50                                           
HYR  55  84  55  74 /  10  10  40  60                                           
ASX  54  80  56  73 /  10  10  10  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LONKA/BERDES                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD SHOULD BEGIN                
TO TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT AFT 18Z IN THE               
ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE FORCING AND                    
MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT AND CAPE                
VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE                         
THUNDERSTORMS HERE. TOOK MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF WRN ZONES THIS                  
AFTERNOON...AS LATEST RUC/NAM SOUNDINS SHOWING DRY AIR MOVING IN.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS RESOLVING CONVECTIVE                    
CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. DLH FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER ACTIVE               
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOSAIC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS NON-SEVERE                        
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUING EASTWARD AFFECTING THE SW FA THIS                 
EARLY MORNING. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS WEAKENING...RESULTING IN                  
CONTINUE DECAY OF THIS MCS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEXT MORE                  
POTENT VORT MAX ATTM IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH                 
DAKOTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NOSE OF 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD              
OF THIS SHORT WAVE HAS TRIGGERED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS                
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EARLY MORNING AS WELL. THIS CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE ENE TRAJECTORY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS LLJ VEERS THIS MORNING. WITH CONTINUED LOW              
LEVEL WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF MAIN SFC                        
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES...WITH NAM                     
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODERATE TO GOOD                 
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 50 KT THIS                                    
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.               
THIS FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE                 
THIS EVENING...WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE                   
NORTH. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF                  
RAIN RECEIVED...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.              
THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING                   
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND HIGH               
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WILL SEE A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE                  
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN                
RESPONSE TO NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH. STRONG LIFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE               
MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE FA THURSDAY                  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH DEEPENS BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER                
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME                   
MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL WITH THE TIMING ON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS                
LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A COOLER AND WETTER WEEKEND ACROSS THE                  
NORTHLAND ATTM.                                                                 
AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM FAR WESTERN                  
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...TO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE                       
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS TROUGH. MAINLY VFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT MVFR OR EVEN SOME IFR CEILINGS AND                
VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS                
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...AND                   
SHOULD BE DONE ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE               
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  83  56  80  55 /  30  10  10  20                                           
INL  81  51  82  57 /  30  10  10  30                                           
BRD  85  59  84  60 /  20  10  10  40                                           
HYR  85  56  84  56 /  30  10  10  30                                           
ASX  84  56  80  54 /  30  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LONKA/BERDES                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
653 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/404 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                                                    
SHORT DISCUSSION THIS MORNING DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER. BROKEN LINE                
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE. RUC IS                    
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS BACK TOWARD SOUTHWEST                
MISSOURI...SO THINK THE PRIMARY THRUST OF THE STORMS WILL BE IN                 
THAT DIRECTION. KEPT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THRU                         
12Z...FADING TO MID-HIGH LIKELY AFTER 12Z. MODELS DEVELOP PLENTY                
OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND WITH                        
BOUNDARIES LINGERING FROM THIS MORNING`S STORMS FELT CHANCE POPS                
WERE PRUDENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
TONIGHT...MODEL QPF AND POPS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY AT BEST                
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAVE DECIDED TO MORE OR LESS                    
IGNORE THE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS GUIDANCE IS GIVING US IN                   
NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE INSTEAD. THE THIRD                
IN THIS SERIES OF SMALL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO               
THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FLOW               
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL TONIGHT WHICH WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE                
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT NORTH OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER I                  
HAVE LITTLE OR NO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION BASED ON THE PAST                 
COUPLE OF NIGHT`S PERFORMANCE. AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE TOO                
FAR NORTH AND THAT WE COULD GET THE SOUTHERN END OF AN MCS AS IT                
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS PREVIOUSLY                
STATED...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWFA. DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON QPF AT THIS                
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT DID GO HIGHER THAN HPC GUIDANCE                 
SUGGESTED.                                                                      
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS VERY WET AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO                  
MISSOURI ACCORDING TO ALL GUIDANCE. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST               
AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE          
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 60-70% ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE                    
AREA...AND BUMPED UP QPF SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HAVE MADE LITTLE OR NO               
CHANGE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.       
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/642 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...                                                             
ANOTHER COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. MCS WHICH DROPPED                   
SOUTH OUT OF IA OVERNIGHT HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY AND MESOSCALE PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE. DISJOINTED                  
STRATIFORM RAIN REGION OF THE INTIAL MCS EXTENDS FROM KJEF TO                   
AROUND 30 MILES NW OF KSTL. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS REGION HAS              
BEEN SHRIKING AS IT TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. I KEPT SOME TEMPO                  
GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE STL AREA TAFS WITH UNRESTRICTED                   
VSBYS/LIGHT RAIN IN CASE SOME OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER. OTHERWISE THE             
WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE WITH                      
CONVERGENCE/LIFT VIA THE WSWLY LLJ ON THIS FLANK. NEW CONVECTION                
IS PUSHING TOWARDS KCOU AND SHOULD IMPACT THEM AFT 13Z. AFTER 15Z               
ANTICIPATING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND OF ANY ACTIVITY IN ERN                
MO AND DECREASE IN CLOUDS. IF THE RESIDUAL BNDRY REMAINS INTACT                 
INTO THE AFTERNOON IT COULD FOCUS NEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM                    
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ITS EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE LOCATION ARE TOO IFFY              
TO KNOW IF ANYTHING COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS IT LOOKS AS IF ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DROP SEWD OUT OF IA AND                 
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KUIN. INTRODUCED A PROB GROUP WITH THIS IN                   
MIND.                                                                           
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LINCOLN.                        
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
440 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/330 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                                                    
Q-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MISSOURI ALONG WITH STRONG                     
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET HAS TOUCHED OFF A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING                  
MCS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND                
CENTRAL MISSOURI...JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWFA. HOWEVER...RADAR                       
ESTIMATES OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN AT THIS TIME WITH MORE ON THE WAY               
ACROSS KNOX...LEWIS...MARION...SHELBY...AND ADAMS COUNTIES. HAVE                
THEREFORE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON                
TODAY. IT STILL LOOKS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...LIKE THE SOUTHERN               
EXTENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS                   
MORNING SO DID NOT EXPAND THE AREA AT THIS TIME.                                
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING`S MCS WILL LIKELY BE HANGING                 
AROUND THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE A GOOD              
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RUC IS FORECASTING               
MLCAPES GREATER THAN 1600 J/KG AND MUCAPES GREATER THAN 4000                    
JOULES BY 18Z. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY FOR                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP. NOT SURE THOUGH WHAT THE COVERAGE WILL              
BE THIS AFTERNOON SO MAINLY KEPT JUST CHANCES GOING.                            
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO IOWA TONIGHT AND                  
APPEARS TO TAKE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH IT AT LEAST THROUGH              
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE`S STILL THE CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME SCATTERED          
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF                 
THE CWFA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERTOP OF THE BOUNDARY AND              
INTERACTS WITH SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVES. UNFORTUNATELY THIS                   
MEANS MORE WATER IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM. NOT SURE YET HOW              
THIS WILL IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS...WHETHER THE RIVER WILL RISE                  
AGAIN...OR IF IT WILL JUST DELAY THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FALL.                
EITHER WAY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS.                                               
THE NEXT SHOT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND                   
SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS                     
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. HPC GUIDANCE PRINTED OUT OVER AN INCH OF                 
QPF ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DID NOT GO THAT HIGH IN MY QPF                
FORECAST YET AS THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF                  
FORECAST OUT THAT FAR...THOUGH THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A POSSIBILITY THAT             
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                   
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/1051 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/                                                   
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SCT TSRA CONT TO DVLP N OF A WRMFNT CURRENTLY                
EXTDG FM NR MCI SE TO NR STL...AND ALSO AHD OF AN MCV MOVG SLOWLY               
EWD THRU S CNTRL IA. THE SWLY LLJ IS FCST TO FOCUS BOTH LOW LVL                 
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVCTN TO NERN MO LT TGT. LOOKING AT LATEST            
RADAR TRENDS WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING TSRA IN UIN OR AT LEAST A                  
TEMPO GRP OF TSRA IN UIN TIL AT LEAST 08Z WED. IT APRS THAT THE                 
TSRA OVER NRN MO WILL REMAIN N OF COU..STL AND SUS LT TGT. THE                  
BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NWD ON WED AS THE WRMFNT IS              
FCST TO MOVE NWD THRU NRN MO LT TGT AND INTO IA ON WED. OUTSIDE OF              
THE STORMS THERE SHOULD BE HI LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS                  
ALONG WITH SOME WAA MID LVL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. WITH THE WRMFNT                 
LIFTING NWD THE SELY SFC WNDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY VEER              
ARND TO A SLY DIRECTION LT TGT THEN TO A SWLY DIRECTION ON WED.                 
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-              
     MONROE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                                       
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LINCOLN.                        
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-              
     PIKE IL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1252 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.                     
WIND SHOULD REALLY START MIXING AND GUSTING FROM THE SOUTH BY                   
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE                
PERIOD...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHWESTERN                      
KANSAS...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND COULD AFFECT                
PARTS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT LEAST IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT         
DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE                     
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE STORMS GOING                    
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AS FAR AS MODELS ARE CONCERNED...QPF FIELDS ARE              
GENERALLY WORTHLESS AND HAVE BEEN IGNORED.                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
942 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHWESTERN                     
KANSAS...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND COULD AFFECT                
PARTS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT LEAST IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT         
DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE                     
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE STORMS GOING                    
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AS FAR AS MODELS ARE CONCERNED...QPF FIELDS ARE              
GENERALLY WORTHLESS AND HAVE BEEN IGNORED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.                      
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MUCH LATER FOR THE                  
AREA...AND SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF                 
THE TERMINAL. WIND SHOULD REALLY START MIXING AND GUSTING FROM THE              
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD OFF              
UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID TIME.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
645 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.                     
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MUCH LATER FOR THE                  
AREA...AND SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF                 
THE TERMINAL. WIND SHOULD REALLY START MIXING AND GUSTING FROM THE              
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD OFF              
UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID TIME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN                                                                        
</pre> ne                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
355 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                               
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES              
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  ONE OF THESE WAVES IS                 
CURRENTLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SECOND WAVE IS SEEN            
PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES.  RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
TWO BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DIFFERENTIAL                  
HEATING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO AROUND GRAND ISLAND             
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO            
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LOOKING AT RUC ANALYSIS...ML CAPES OF                  
3000 TO AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG ARE SEEN FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE MODEST            
TO STRONG INHIBITION. HOWEVER...WEAKER INHIBITION IS SHOWN ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  TAKING            
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY IN THESE WEAKER INHIBITION AREAS...A              
SMALL CLUSTER OF CU IS VISIBLE NEAR KGLD BUT LITTLE IS SHOWN ACROSS             
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IS               
WHERE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.  INITIAL PROBLEM WITH DEVELOPING             
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING            
IS THAT FORCING FROM THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...IS          
SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN               
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE PRODUCING INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG         
WITH A LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  WILL OPT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST              
OF THE CWA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT IF              
NOTHING DEVELOPS.  IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS              
MARGINAL AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AT 15 TO 25             
KNOTS AT BEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE BUT WILL DECREASE MAX               
HAIL SIZE DOWN TO PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE.  HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING              
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOWN TO               
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH WHATEVER CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGH             
PLAINS SLIDING EAST INTO THE CWA.  COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS                     
SMALL...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE AN              
ACTIVE TIME FRAME ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS             
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO SPIN UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT SEEN EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE A                 
DRYLINE STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA GENERALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 283.  DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE               
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM                   
FRONT.  THIS IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG NEAR             
THE DRYLINE AND 3000 TO 3500 J/KG NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  A HEALTHY               
SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT JUST               
NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  SEVERE CONVECTION                        
WISE...EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALONG DRYLINE             
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 10 TO 25 KNTS AT BEST.  THIS            
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OVER THIS PORTION OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A                
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...EFFECTIVE DEEP               
LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KNTS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD CELL                      
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION.  TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
BUT LARGE HAIL THREAT LOOKS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.                
TEMPERATURE WISE...A VERY WARM AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TAP WITH HIGHS                
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR ORD TO OSCEOLA...TO THE MID              
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                  
.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE                 
ON TOP OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING...AS MAY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ANY THURSDAY NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE MODELS                  
ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR                
SOUTHEAST CFWA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW IF                 
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES HAS ANY SAY. POINT IS...WITH                   
CLOUDS LINGERING...AND FRONT ON THE MOVE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR                  
ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA. KEPT A                    
SMALL RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...IN CASE POST FRONTAL ELEVATED                     
PRECIPITATION CAN FORM...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES FOR A TIME IN                      
THESE SITUATIONS.                                                               
THE WEEKEND LOOKS ADMIRABLE WEATHER WISE. ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS                
FORECAST TO COME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT                      
FRIDAY...DRIVEN BY GREAT LAKES REGION LOW PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES                 
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.                     
THOUGH  DEWPOINTS MAY BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION               
AND RECENT RAINFALL ISSUES...IT SHOULD STILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT            
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                                       
NEXT SHOT FOR A STORM OR TWO COULD COME MONDAY EVENING IN THE                   
WESTERN ZONES...AS A STORM MAY FLOUNDER IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.                
LITTLE BETTER RISK OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS THE                
RIPPLE EFFECT RETURNS WITH A WEAK WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE.               
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH BEGINNING                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS                        
ANTICIPATED FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24                   
HOURS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS                     
EVENING. APPEARS COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT              
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE THE TERMINAL AREA.                            
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THREAT FOR STORMS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE                      
TERMINAL BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                    
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
815 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PASSING HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF              
THE AREA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BECOME UNSETTLED AS A                    
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN                     
FREQUENT BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                                  
CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS HAS KEPT THE AIR OVER              
NEW YORK STATE RELATIVELY STABLE COMPARED TO AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL             
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS PRECLUDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS               
HAVE THINNED OUT NICELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...BUT ANY                  
CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL             
HAVE TO FIGHT THE STABILIZING LAKE ERIE BREEZE. THEREFORE...DO NOT              
EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NIAGARA                
FRONTIER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.                                             
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE GENESEE VALLEY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF               
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA               
WILL STILL WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT UNDER              
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LAKE ERIE BREEZE. THE RUC                    
SUGGESTS THAT CAPES MAY INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH LI`S             
LOWERING TO ABOUT -5. IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP A LITTLE MORE ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN TIER...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.                                                       
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDWEST COLD FRONT THAT IS HELPING              
TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL               
INDIANA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY             
TO THE EAST AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT BEFORE                   
STALLING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE             
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT               
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIR AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT WILL                
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.                                              
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE CAPPED ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL                
LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR WILL                  
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT. IF THE FRONT STALLS FARTHER TO THE             
NORTH...WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR MOST OF THE CWA.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT                 
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                 
SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ADVECT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER                 
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
ON SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE                
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT            
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION            
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES WILL               
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WILL ALSO BE            
A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND FIELDS                  
ALOFT.                                                                          
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA               
SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION. BEHIND THE              
FRONT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...               
BUT WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY REDEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE COLD UPPER AIR               
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS A BROAD              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION/COLD POOL ALOFT            
WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR            
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING              
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS PERIOD                   
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.               
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL              
BUT SHOULD BE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS                 
ONTARIO CANADA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF                   
DAYTIME HEATING. THE ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WILL            
BECOME MORE SPARSE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. TWO AREAS OF                        
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN              
END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN                       
PENNSYLVANIA. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF              
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER INTO IFR CONDITIONS              
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.                                                               
THE WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK                 
STATE FRIDAY. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA                     
DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAY STILL GENERATE A FEW -TSRA ALONG THE                   
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY.            
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH A               
GOOD DEAL OF TOMORROW.                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SATURDAY...VFR. CHC SHWRS.                                                      
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHC TSTMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER                    
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT...NO WIND BASED MARINE HEADLINES                 
WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.                                      
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PASS BY TO THE               
NORTH OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH                        
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEING PRODUCED OVER LAKE ERIE AS A RESULT.                      
MEANWHILE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL BE FOUND ON LAKE                    
ONTARIO. A RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND                  
FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREDOMINATING.                            
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH LAKES FOR THE                
WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TMA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TJP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMA                                                                
LONG TERM...TMA                                                                 
AVIATION...THOMAS/TJP                                                           
MARINE...TMA                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
157 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LOWER CANADA, WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD                
FRONT ACROSS NY AND PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT COULD CAUSE              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS                       
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED AT 1015 AM...-SHRA ASSCD WITH MCV PULLING OUT...AND FOCUS               
TURNS TO POTNL REDVLPMNT THIS AFTN. RUC PROFILES SHOW THE DVLPMNT               
OF A MID LVL CAPPING LAYER...A FEATURE WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE                  
UPSTREAM DTX AND APX SNDGS AND TAMDAR DATA. K INDICES FALL INTO                 
THE M20S ACRS CNTRL NY THIS AFTN...NOT FVRBL FOR REDVLPMNT. XTNSV               
CLD CVR ACRS THE RGN...WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF BACKEDGE INTO THE                  
FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS IN          
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LAMP DATA. BEST POTNL MAY ACTUALLY BE THIS                  
EVENING IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...AS INFLUENCES FROM WEAK S/WV                
AND SFC TROF BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON NW ZONES...WHERE GREATEST INSTAB              
SHUD RESIDE DUE TO MORE LATE DAY SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME                  
ACTIVITY LATE ACRS WRN AD CNTRL PA..WHICH COULD PSBLY AFFECT THE                
AVP AREA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ANY POTNL                   
REDVLPMNT...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE VERY LATE. BELIEVE SLGT CHC TO               
LOW CHC POPS WILL COVER IT FOR THIS AFTN. PREV BLO...                           
PULLED BACK ON POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FA AS MCS REMNANTS WILL               
BE MORE SCATTERED IN THIS AREA.                                                 
FOCUS TODAY IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                  
LATEST NAM SEEMS FAR TOO MOIST IN PUSHING AVP DEW POINT INTO THE                
UPPER 60S. BASED ON SFC PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM MI/OH, IT APPEARS              
MID 60S IS A REALISTIC RANGE FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                     
COMBINED WITH FORECAST MAXES OF 78F-82F, WE GET CAPES AROUND                    
1100-1400 J/KG AND LI`S OF -2C TO -3C.                                          
THESE VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS INDICATED BY MODELS 24               
HOURS AGO. ALSO, THE MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW              
QUITE A BIT. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT 30-35 KTS AT MID LEVELS, AS                  
OPPOSED TO THE ORIGINALLY FORECAST 50 KTS. BIG DIFFERENCE,                      
ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF UL JET STREAK. THIS CUTS DOWN ON THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.                                             
SO THIS EVENT NO LONGER APPEARS SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER SEVERE                     
POTENTIAL REMAINS, WITH FOCUS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY                        
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT                
WILL BE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT SEEM TO                 
INDICATE STRONG WINDS WITHOUT A STRONG SQUALL LINE. MORE LIKELY WE              
WILL SEE SCATTERED, DISCRETE CELLS WITH A FEW PULSING TO SEVERE                 
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS PESSIMISTIC.              
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY, WITH A                
FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE.                                                      
AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY, MULTIPLE WAVES WILL ROTATE                   
THROUGH NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG               
ON ANY GIVEN WAVE. HAVE PULLED BACK POPS TO REFLECT SCATTERED                   
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY, AND KEPT LIKELY WORDING IN FOR SATURDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD                      
AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSETTLED AS CUTOFF LOW OVER                    
MICHIGAN SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND FILLS...SO BY END OF NEXT WEEK MAY               
GET A DRY WARM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT ON COAST SUN NGT INTO MONDAY                 
WITH CUTOFF WELL WEST SO A RELATIVE LULL. SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND              
UL TROF TUESDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WED TO THU AS UL TROF MOVES INTO              
NEW ENGLAND AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY. MOST LIKELY TIME              
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTERNOONS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME                   
HEATING CAUSING SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ATTM. CIGS WILL SCATTER AND LIFT BY                 
21Z AS DRIZZLE AND MOISTURE HEADS SE. A SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF                 
COULD STILL SET OFF A FEW SHRA/TS LATE TODAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT LIGHT              
FOG PREDICTED SO MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MOST PLACES. VFR DURING THE                
DAY FRIDAY.                                                                     
WEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN               
BACK TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY AFTER 12Z.                                   
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI NITE THRU TUE...AREAS OF MVFR IN TSRA/SHRA...ESPECIALLY SAT                 
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...TAC                                                                 
AVIATION...TAC                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
747 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY. A SLOW                 
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE               
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER              
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
DYING MCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM. HAVE RAISED POPS                
SIGNIFICANTLY OVR MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON                
RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUC13 AND SREF DATA SUGGEST THIS WEAKENING                 
AREA OF SHWRS...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...WILL PUSH EAST                
OF THE REGION BY ARND 15Z WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET.                               
IN WAKE OF MCS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE                  
REGION LATER TODAY...AS SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF PA. EARLY                
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BRIGHTENING SKIES BY MIDDAY...RESULTING               
IN SREF CAPES NR 2000 J/KG BY AFTN. ALTHOUGH NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL              
PA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX THIS AFTN...LATEST ENS DATA                
SUGGESTS NORTHERN PA IS UNDER THE GREATEST RISK...AS CORE OF                    
STRONGEST MID LVL WINDS FCST TO PASS OVR UPSTATE NY. FURTHER                    
SOUTH...SREF 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES BLW 20KTS SUGGEST A MUCH LOWER CHC              
FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.                                        
HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS THIS AFTN WILL BE PLACED OVR THE ALLEGHENY                   
HIGHLANDS...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE/TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING MOST                 
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION. 850 TEMPS ARND 18C SUGGEST HIGHS                 
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD HIT 90F TDY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...                          
SCT EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WEAK           
SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PUSH A DYING                
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PA. ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...DIURNAL HEATING OF            
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD SCT AFTN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION              
ON FRIDAY. SREF 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS ARND 90F IN THE VALLEYS                 
SOUTH OF I-80.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY                   
SVR...STATEWIDE ON SATURDAY AS A SHARP SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT                   
APPROACHES THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE                   
WESTERN GRT LKS. FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES AREA SAT NITE/SUNDAY...AS              
UPPER-LVL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN GRT LKS. WILL CARRY SHWRS               
AND T-STORMS INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PA.                        
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS PARK UPPER-LVL TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                   
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOL                    
CONDS. GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT...CAN/T RULE OUT SCT DIURNAL                      
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER TROF                   
LIKELY TO LIFT OUT BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN FAIR AND WARMER                    
CONDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM COMPLEX THAT MOVED EAST FROM OHIO OVERNIGHT               
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES                   
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG AND              
LOW CLOUDS RESULTING FROM THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE MORNING              
AS WELL. VFR FLYING TO RETURN BY THE AFTN WITH SCT- BKN CU. LATE                
DAY CLEARING MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ESP ACROSS THE NRN                
TIER CLOSE TO A DIFFUSE FNTL BNDRY.                                             
WEST TO EAST ZONAL PATTERN WILL KEEP ACTIVE WX THRU FIRST HALF OF               
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF DRY/WET WX FRI-SUN AS MODELS HINT AT PRODUCING              
A QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY FROM SOUTHERN MO ARCHING NE TOWARDS                    
DELMARVA. WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THINKING WITH CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA                  
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED                 
COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO GRT LKS SUN EVE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD                                                           
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR                                                      
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL                                                    
</pre> pa                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
859 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCT TSRA...SVR AT TIMES...ARE MOVING INTO FAR SW SD                             
ATTM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT/SFC TROF LIFTING                 
INTO THE WRN SD. MSAS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE ERN              
DAKOTAS...AND MOISTURE DEPRIVED KABR 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT                
NOTHING SHOULD LIFT THIS FAR NE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12 DOES                
SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SKIRTING ALONG OUR SRN COUNTIES              
TONIGHT. WITH WATCH THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 09Z FOR THE FAR                
SW COUNTIES...DID ADD MENTION OF SEVERE TO WORDING FOR THOSE                    
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTW REMAINDER OF ZONES LOOKED GOOD AND NO                   
EDITING REQUIRED.                                                               
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE               
CWA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WYOMING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS                
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA. LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT                 
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXPECT THIS IS WHERE ANY ACTIVITY               
WILL BEGIN. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHOWING SOME FORM OF WEAK               
MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE                
OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN JUST HOW FAR                
NORTH COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW LONG IT LASTS INTO                         
THURSDAY...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE              
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT                  
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO                
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF THINGS TO                  
CONSIDER WITH SVR POTENTIAL AND MAX HIGHS. IF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX              
PANS OUT AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...DEBRIS                   
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL PROBABLY PREVENT HIGHS FROM                
REACHING CURRENT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SUPPRESS                      
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUT...STILL                       
EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW                       
AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR INSTABILITY                  
RECOVERY. THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO                 
CONTEND WITH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR                
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP                   
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ. SVR               
PARAMETERS RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA                   
FRIDAY AND HAVE LEFT SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE              
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS TO SEE A FEW WRAP AROUND               
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG               
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF TO               
OUR EAST SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE             
A SHARP 50H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS               
OUR REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOL AIR          
CONTINUES TO POUR ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW              
PRESSURE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE                     
LOWERED EVEN MORE. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME CAA CU AND ISOLD/SCT -SHRAS              
ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY AND EARLY                
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS               
DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS SLOWLY INTO THE                    
REGION AND FLATTENS OUT SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME WITH A WARM UP AS HEIGHTS                   
INCREASE. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY                 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE               
WILL BREAK DOWN SOME BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORT                
WAVE COMING INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF TSRAS                    
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES. SOME                     
ISOLD/SCT TSRA MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE KPIR                           
TERMINAL...CLOSER TO I-90...AFT 06Z...WITH LITTLE IMPACT THOUGH AT              
THE KPIR TERMINAL. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS AFT 15Z FOR ALL                    
TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
333 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE               
CWA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WYOMING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS                
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA. LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT                 
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXPECT THIS IS WHERE ANY ACTIVITY               
WILL BEGIN. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHOWING SOME FORM OF WEAK               
MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE                
OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN JUST HOW FAR                
NORTH COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW LONG IT LASTS INTO                         
THURSDAY...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE              
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT                  
PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO                
LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF THINGS TO                  
CONSIDER WITH SVR POTENTIAL AND MAX HIGHS. IF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX              
PANS OUT AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...DEBRIS                   
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL PROBABLY PREVENT HIGHS FROM                
REACHING CURRENT FORECAST. CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO SUPPRESS                      
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BUT...STILL                       
EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW                       
AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR INSTABILITY                  
RECOVERY. THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO                 
CONTEND WITH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR                
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING BEST PRECIP                   
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ. SVR               
PARAMETERS RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA                   
FRIDAY AND HAVE LEFT SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE              
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. POSSIBILITY EXISTS TO SEE A FEW WRAP AROUND               
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG               
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF TO               
OUR EAST SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE             
A SHARP 50H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS               
OUR REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COOL AIR          
CONTINUES TO POUR ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW              
PRESSURE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE                     
LOWERED EVEN MORE. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME CAA CU AND ISOLD/SCT -SHRAS              
ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY AND EARLY                
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS               
DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS SLOWLY INTO THE                    
REGION AND FLATTENS OUT SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME WITH A WARM UP AS HEIGHTS                   
INCREASE. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY                 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE               
WILL BREAK DOWN SOME BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORT                
WAVE COMING INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF TSRAS                    
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...NIGHT AND MORNING                      
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 8000                  
FEET. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PIR AND ATY AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY                
THURSDAY FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1126 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY             
EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION INTO THE            
PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE            
OUT OF TAF PACKAGE FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE LOW. CONVECTION MAY NOT                
AFFECT ANY OF TAF SITES SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING. WILL LET LATER                 
SHIFTS INTRODUCE CONVECTION AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS              
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.                            
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THE THREAT FOR                
STORMS IS DIMINISHING FOR THE PANHANDLES. RUC AND NAM DO SUGGEST THAT           
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SO LOWERED POPS TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 12Z.                                                      
JJB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAILY THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES            
THIS EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE LATER              
THIS EVENING IF THEY CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.                    
OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT              
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED               
CUMULUS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.                           
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS OF NEW NEW MEXICO...SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ALONG A SURFACE             
TROUGH THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS SHOULD AGAIN MOVE             
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE                    
PANHANDLES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                           
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                    
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES                   
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF                 
OF THE U.S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO                  
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY SATURDAY                     
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                      
DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE MOUNTAINS...SO CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE A              
LITTLE ENHANCED.                                                                
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.            
AND THE RIDGE STAYS PUT OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE                    
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE                
PANHANDLES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.                                                  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE               
THROUGH THIS FORECAST...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS.                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FOR STARTING WILDFIRES.  BUT...WITH THE              
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS THE OVERALL WILDFIRE DANGER                 
WILL BE LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
950 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THE THREAT FOR                
STORMS IS DIMINISHING FOR THE PANHANDLES. RUC AND NAM DO SUGGEST THAT           
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SO LOWERED POPS TO               
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 12Z.                                                      
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAILY THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES            
THIS EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE LATER              
THIS EVENING IF THEY CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET.                    
OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT              
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED               
CUMULUS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.                           
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS OF NEW NEW MEXICO...SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ALONG A SURFACE             
TROUGH THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS SHOULD AGAIN MOVE             
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE                    
PANHANDLES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                           
DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                    
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES                   
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF                 
OF THE U.S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO                  
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY SATURDAY                     
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                      
DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE MOUNTAINS...SO CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE A              
LITTLE ENHANCED.                                                                
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.            
AND THE RIDGE STAYS PUT OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE                    
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE                
PANHANDLES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.                                                  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE               
THROUGH THIS FORECAST...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS.                                           
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FOR STARTING WILDFIRES.  BUT...WITH THE              
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS THE OVERALL WILDFIRE DANGER                 
WILL BE LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
321 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.                            
NEAR-TERM...TONIGHT. DEALING WITH MAINLY CI BLOW OFF AT THE MOMENT.             
COMPLEX ACRS IA INTO MO SAPPING UP THE MOIST/INFLOW/INSTAB.                     
ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BUBBLE OF DRIER AIR HAS                   
WORKED INTO SRN WI WITH THE REAL GOOD JUICE OFF TO THE WEST.                    
THINKING IS THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TNGT TO OUR                
WEST WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACRS THE CWA LATER TNGT. FOR NOW WILL              
LEAN TOWARDS THE QPF TRENDS OF THE NAM/RUC AND NGM WHICH KEEPS US               
LARGELY RAIN FREE THRU 6Z.                                                      
.SHORT TERM...KEY TO FRIDAY SEVERE TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL BE                 
DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTION AND                        
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM FOR DETAILS AS               
SPURIOUS 500MB CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA ON GFS AFFECTING LAYERS              
BELOW...MAKING IT AN OUTLIER. CWA IN FAVORED REGION TO THE LEFT OF              
STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z SAT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY              
WITH ML CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...EVEN AFTER LOWERING SOMEWHAT                  
GENEROUS SFC DEW POINTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS ENOUGH                
TO ORGANIZE STORMS. WILL LEAVE LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW...BUT ALL OF              
THE CWA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
AS FOR RAIN FROM THE STORMS IMPACTING SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN               
RIVERS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.54 INCHES...BUT MESO-                
BETA ELEMENTS MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING MOST FAVORED TIME.                
WILL RE-ISSUE ESF FOR NOW AS IT WILL TAKE ONLY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF               
RAIN IN AN HOUR OR LESS TO CAUSE SOME STREET FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT              
NOT ENOUGH CLARITY TO TARGET ANY GIVEN AREA FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.           
UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SIMILAR TO LAST               
WEEK...500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -18C RANGE WILL LEAD TO               
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON         
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.            
POSSIBILITY AGAIN FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED V                
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
MONDAY...TIMING OF UPPER LOW EXITING WESTERN GREAT                              
LAKES WILL BE KEY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST. OPERATIONAL                      
FORECASTS ALL TAKE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL TO AROUND                 
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW BY 00Z MONDAY...AND OVER...OR NORTH OF...               
LAKE HURON BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND HAVE DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO REGION FOR MONDAY INTO                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
.LONG TERM...QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH              
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY SFC WIND TURNS NE ALONG THE                 
LAKE...SO EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS THEN FALLING TEMPS MONDAY. WEAK                 
GRADIENT TUESDAY BRINGS SIMILAR TEMP SCENARIO. NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE        
COMES WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETTING              
UP AHEAD OF NEXT 500MB TROF. ML CAPES REACH 1000-1500 J/KG IN NW                
HALF OF ON FAVORED ECMWF BY 00Z SO WILL BRING CHANCES THERE IN THE              
AFTERNOON...AND CWA-WIDE WED NIGHT. SLOW MOVEMENT OF SFC TROF THRU              
REGION BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS                  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH PERIOD AS ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR                    
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN VERY SUBTLE UNDER WEAK FLOW.  LLJ REMAINS                  
PARKED UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND EXPECT REGENERATING THUNDERSTORMS TO             
FIRE ACROSS NW IA/SW MN INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE THOSE STORMS ROLL IN            
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THAT EVOLUTION.            
HOWEVER WILL HINT AT SOME THUNDER IN THE TAFS LATER TNGT INTO FRI               
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...09                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...10                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
745 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUITE AN AIRMASS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEVERAL DIFFERENT WEAK FRONTAL              
ZONES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT              
/A REFLECTION OF DEPARTING ONTARIO CANADA HEIGHT FALLS/ IS                      
SHIFTING STEADILY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 26.00Z KMPX RAOB WAS A                
JAW-DROPPER IN THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH               
PWATS CUT IN HALF /1.2 TO 0.6 INCH/ AND RATHER DEEP NWLY FLOW.                  
CONTRAST THIS...TO AIRMASS SOUTH OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL                   
STRUCTURE FROM WHERE IT INTERSECTS COLD FRONT IN NWRN IA...DOWN                 
ALONG I-80 TOWARD MUSCATINE IOWA....WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER                
70S AND SBCAPES TOWARD 5000 J/KG ARE COMMON. NO SURPRISE...WITH                 
THE ADDITION OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION /MCV/ HITTING THE                  
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM SRN IA INTO NRN IA THAT                      
EXPLOSIVE DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM                  
FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER CNTL IA...WHERE GOLFBALL HAIL HAS BEEN                   
OBSERVED. SHORT RANGE LOCAL WRF-BASED 13KM RUC MODEL...AGREES                   
WHOLEHEARTEDLY WITH 26.15Z SREF PROBS THAT THIS COMPLEX OF SCT                  
STORMS IN CNTL IA WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS IT MATURES THIS                 
EVENING. EARLIER E-W BAND OF CONVECTION HANCOCK/CERRO GORDO COUNTY              
HAS FORMED A COLD POOL IS NOW PROPAGATING SOUTH/EAST WITH MCV                   
TAKING MAIN ECHOES JUST SOUTHWEST OF CCY/OLZ AREAS. MAY GET QUITE MESSY         
IN CNTL IA TONIGHT GIVEN MERGING MCS CLUSTERS AND HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN             
TRENDS IN 26.18Z WRF/GFS OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE SOUNDINGS                 
NORTH OF I-90...EXPECT MUCH OF RAIN CHANCES REST OF NIGHT TO BE                 
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH. COULD STILL POP A SHOWER IN THE FAR                  
NORTH WITH COLD FRONT...BUT CUMULUS FIELD IS LOSING ORGANIZATION.               
UPDATED FORECAST/HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK IS OUT.                                    
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION POTENTIAL              
AND RAIN AMOUNTS.                                                               
DATA ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER                   
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN             
IA INTO EASTERN NE. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY               
SHOWED A REMNANT MVC MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IA. A FEW             
LIGHT SHRA SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR MOSAIC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                  
FEATURE...BUT NO GROUND REPORTS THUS FAR. VIS SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING            
SCATTERED CU FIELD IN WEAK SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE            
TROUGH ACROSS MN. TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF SUMMER THIS                   
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS             
IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY SPC MESOANALYSIS TOOL SHOWING 100MB ML CAPE IN            
THE 500-1500J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALMOST NIL CIN.                     
25.12Z GFS/NAM STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE PERIOD WITH            
SPEED AND INTENSITY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA               
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF                
RAINFALL. CONTINUED TO TAKE A BLEND APPROACH AS FAR AS FINAL QPF                
PLACEMENT/AMOUNT WAS CONCERNED.                                                 
GFS/NAM/SREF ALL HINTING AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT              
MOVES FROM MN THROUGH WI THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS                  
INDICATING SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT               
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE                 
TROUGH WILL LAY UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT                
BULK OF 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF                   
I-80...SO RESULTANT BULK OF SHRA/TS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.            
BOTTOM LINE...MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES OF SHRA/TS ACROSS THE NORTH              
THIS EVENING...THEN CONFINED SHRA/TS CHANCES TO FAR SOUTH WHERE THE             
TROUGH WILL LAY UP COMBINED WITH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST OPPORTUNITY            
WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER BULK               
SHEAR AND CAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG WILL EXIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT                  
ACROSS THE SOUTH...ML CAPE DIMINISHES INTO THE 500-1000J/KG                     
RANGE...PRETTY MINIMAL FOR SEVERE THREAT.                                       
FOR THURSDAY...THE TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE                
AREA AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.                  
BETTER 925-850MB TRANSPORT ADVECTS INTO/OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INCREASING SHRA/TS CHANCES. BETTER               
CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES TO             
THE NORTHEAST. NAM INDICATING ML CAPE IN THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE                
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR REMAINS              
WEST OF THE AREA. SO...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TS ALONG THE FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS                    
MITIGATED BY LACK OF GOOD SHEAR. CANNOT HOWEVER RULE OUT SOME SEVERE            
HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                               
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT             
OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS                 
INDICATING MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT AS              
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE                 
2500-3000J/KG RANGE AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO              
35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA/TS               
ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE               
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IN                           
ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0            
INCH RANGE...HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY. HEAVY                    
RAINFALL THREAT IS DETAILED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.                     
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADA/MN BORDER                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE                   
QUESTION BECOMES ON HOW FAST THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM                    
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION. BOTH NAM AND GFS                      
INDICATING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON TOP OF US BY NOON WITH MUCAPE                  
VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 2500-4500J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR ALSO                 
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. HELICITY IN              
THE LOWEST 3KM ALSO POINTS TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR               
TWO. THE FRONT AND BULK OF SHRA TS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKE IT WILL                
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.                              
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY            
STACKED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD POOL CIRCULATING OVERHEAD.             
THIS PRODUCES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHRA/TS CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA             
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                            
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
25.00Z ECMWF/25.06Z GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH            
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE BUILD IN FROM             
THE PLAINS. CONTINUED SHRA/ISOLD T CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS              
THE AREA REMAINS IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COLD POOL ALOFT.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SCATTERED                      
PRECIPITATION AND MIXING OF 5-6C AIR FROM 850MB. WITH HEIGHTS                   
BUILDING ON MONDAY AND SUBSIDENCE...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS                 
REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S TO                    
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A COUPLE MORE              
DEGREES TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY                           
WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE                    
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT            
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.              
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS BOTH             
THE RST AND LSE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK               
MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA             
WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING              
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG             
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE VORTEX THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO                
CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SCATTER IN NATURE OF                      
CONVECTION HAVE KEPT VCSH AT BOTH RST AND LSE AFTER 22-23Z. BOTH THE            
LATEST 25.12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO              
NORTHERN IOWA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE            
CONVERGENCE WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES...HAVE INTRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS             
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AFTER 09Z.                                                 
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL MAINLY FROM             
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING               
INTO 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND BETTER THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT TO                 
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINS. A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH               
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE THIS ENVIRONMENT.                 
HOWEVER...OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL             
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THIS            
FALLING IN THE THURSDAY TROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BELIEVE SOME                  
FOCUSED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT EXACT AREA AND TIMING            
IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. RIGHT NO IT APPEARS AREAS               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR HEAVIER                    
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BULK OF THIS AREA HAS HAD SOME DRYING OVER THE              
PAST FEW DAYS WITH SOILS NOW CAPABLE OF ABSORBING 1 TO 2 INCHES                 
BEFORE RUNOFF OCCURS INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS. HOWEVER...IF INTENSE              
ENOUGH...RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF PROBLEMS QUICKER IN STEEPER              
TERRAIN AREAS. AS A RESULT WILL RE-ISSUE AN ESF TO ADDRESS THE HEAVY            
RAIN THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
252 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MCV ACROSS LOWER MI SHIFTING AWAY FROM SRN WI/N IL. RUC ANALYSIS DOES           
SHOW WEAK VORT LOBE HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE FIELD LEFT BEHIND BY                     
DEPARTING VORT SEEMS TO BE PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON VERTICAL                       
DEVELOPMENT. WITH SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING LATER TONIGHT MAY BE                
ENUF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW                    
SOMETHING TO FIRE. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING LOOKING CLOUD MASS                 
ACRS NRN IA WORKING EWD. NAM IS DRY AND GFS IS WET...ESPECIALLY                 
OVER THE SRN CWA...SO WILL TRIM GFS MOS POPS...MUCH LIKE LAST                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR                   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING. NAM SHOWS CAPES AROUND 1700                 
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MID LEVELS RATHER DRY...AND LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. ALSO NO TRIGGER WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
FLOW. MODELS DON`T GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION                       
THURSDAY. CRAS MODEL ALSO SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY               
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED              
SURFACE BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS NORTHEAST                        
IOWA...WITH SOME CONVERGENCE AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. THIS                   
WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL OF A MCS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE                  
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES.               
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES                 
FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER DIFLUENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY             
AND INCREASING SEVERE PARAMETERS. EHI VALUES RISE TO 2.75 WITH                  
BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS AROUND 20. THUS SOME SUPER CELL POTENTIAL               
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE                
SOME TORNADO THREAT PROVIDING THE CAP BREAKS DURING OR LATE AFTERNOON.          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ECMWF SHOWED A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF LOW PUSHING                  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD               
AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RESULTANT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY                   
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH               
THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT                 
LAKES REGION MONDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                    
SHOWERS.                                                                        
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER               
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD THEN BRING QUIET WEATHER TO                 
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE                  
OVER THE WEST BY MID WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE MORE                 
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL GO MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED                          
TO DISSIPATE. MAY SEE SOME HAZE/LIGHT FOG AS WELL NOW THAT WE HAVE              
SOME HIGHER DEWS OVERTAKING THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION LOW AT            
THE MOMENT SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS...HOWEVER APPCH FRONT               
LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR                                                     
</pre> wi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
331 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                               
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT HANDLING               
MCS ACTIVITY VERY WELL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BROKEN BAND OF                 
CONVECTION QUICKLY FIRED UP DURING THE PAST HOUR FROM SE IA INTO                
WEST CENTRAL IL NEAR THE MS RIVER AND LIFTING ENE. RUC MODEL                    
HINTED AT THIS SCENERIO THOUGH DEVELOPED QPF TOO QUICKLY. WILL                  
ADDRESS CONVECTION CHANCES ALONG WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS              
THROUGH SAT AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THROUGH IL LATER TONIGHT AND                
INTO SAT.                                                                       
08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER               
MI/WI/MN. MATURE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KY WITH WEAKER MCS                
OVER SW MN/EASTERN SD AND FAR NW IA. NEWLY DEVELOPED BROKEN LINE                
OF CONVECTION FROM SE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AND ANOTHER AREA OF               
CONVECTION OVER SW IL SW OF MOUNT VERNON. CONVECTION IN WESTERN IL              
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SW LOW LEVEL JET/WARM FRONT. MOIST DEWPOINTS              
IN THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH                  
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. ALOFT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW OVER CANADA.               
SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND ALSO IN THE                
DAKOTAS. 553 DM 500 MB LOW WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND                   
SASKETCHEWAN BORDER AND DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO LIKELY                  
ALONG AND NW OF I-55 ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WITH BROKEN LINE OF                
CONVECTION MOVING ENE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THESE                   
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND                  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ACORSS EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL TODAY. MOST SHORT                   
RANGE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE/MCV MOVING INTO IL FROM NE KS THIS               
AFTERNOON. THIS MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH PEAK HEATING              
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION. TONED DOWN                 
HIGHS A BIT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY                 
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AS WAS THE CASE NW OF I-70 YESTERDAY. STILL                
VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL IL AND               
LOWER 90S SE IL FROM I-70 SE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. COULD BE                
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH                     
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND ARRIVING MCV.                                             
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL              
ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER BY              
MIDNIGHT AND TO I-55 BY 12Z/SAT. THIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF                   
AMPLIFYING/DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST FROM SOUTHERN                        
ALBERTA/SASKETCHEWAN. INCREASED POPS TO 80% NW OF I-70 TONIGHT.                 
SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL                 
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-57 WITH 15 TO 30%               
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES (2%). COLD FRONT              
COLLIDING WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES PEAKING FROM 2000            
TO 3000 J/KG WEST OF I-57. BUT LIMITNG FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD                   
SEVERE STORMS IS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BEST WIND FIELDS ARE                  
NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. ALSO MORNING CONVECTION COULD LIMIT HEATING AND            
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CONCERN FOR HEAVY            
RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. HAVE 0.75              
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH             
YET SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE 1.75 TO 2.5 INCHES PER                
HOUR...2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 6 HOURS.              
BUT ISOLATED AREAS IN THE IL RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE LOCAL 1.5 TO 3              
INCH AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TUE NIGHT.              
COLD FRONT SLIDE SE THROUGH SE IL SAT AND CONTINUES GOOD CHANCE OF              
CONVECTION IN EASTERN IL ESPECIALLY SAT MORNING AND MAINLY IN SE                
IL SAT AFTERNOON. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SAT SE OF A              
CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE WITH BEST CHANCE SE OF A DANVILLE TO              
EFFINGHAM LINE WHERE CAPES PEAK FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A DRY                   
WEDGE WORKS INTO CENTRAL IL DURING SAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH               
DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S WITH WEST BREEZES. COOLER HIGHS              
IN THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL IL AND MID 80S SE IL.                                  
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SE IL UNTIL SUNSET SAT                          
EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SAT NIGHT. MODELS                    
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE INTO                     
NORTHERN MI SUNDAY AND TRENDING A BIT CLOUDIER...COOLER...BREEZIER              
AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                        
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. COOLED                 
HIGHS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND INCREASED WNW WINDS TO                
BREEZIER LEVELS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.                                                
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY              
TUE TAKING ITS SHOWERS EAST OF IL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AREAS                   
ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER COULD STILL SEE A RISK OF SHOWERS AND                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON.                                           
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY             
MODIFYING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL             
HEIGHTS RISE OVER IL BY MID WEEK. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER         
80S WED AND THU AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE AS WELL. ECMWF SHOWING              
COLD FRONT AND QPF MOVING INTO IL THU. THIS IS A DAY SOONER THAN THE            
GFS AND DGEX MODELS WHEN IT BRINGS THIS INTO IL ON FRI. NO CHANGES              
MADE YET SINCE AWAITING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT.                    
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                              
LGT/VRBL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRI. ALL CLOUDS                
WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE VFR RANGE...HOWEVER SOME VSBYS MAY REACH                
4-5SM IN FOG/HAZE 09Z-13Z. A SLGT CHC THAT TSTMS COULD DVLP/MOVE E              
ACROSS IA INTO PIA/SPI 09Z-12Z FRI...BUT CHC IS TOO SMALL FOR TAF               
MENTION. DEBRIS FROM STORMS OUT WEST WILL LIKELY DRIFT THROUGH THE              
AREA 13Z-16Z RESULTING IN SCT-BKN STRATOCU AROUND 4K FT. COLD FRONT             
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ERN IA BY 00Z SAT AND PROGRESS TO NWRN IL              
BY 06Z. SCT TSTMS PSBL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PIA/SPI AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SPREADING EWD              
THROUGH 06Z SAT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ONGOING MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT KFWA APPEARS ON TRACK ACCORDING TO               
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...HOWEVER...ADJUSTED TIMING SLIGHTLY.                   
KEPT THUNDER MENTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW                   
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION HAD PUSHED WELL              
TO THE SOUTH AND WAS STILL ACTIVE WITH STORMS. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE              
FOR STORMS IS AFTER 22Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST                  
APPROACHES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
UPDATE... TSRA ACTIVITY WHICH FORMED AHEAD OF MCV MOVG ESE ACROSS               
NRN INDIANA HAS MAINLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVE. STRATIFORM              
RAIN IN COMMA HEAD OF THIS VORTEX AFFECTING FWA ATTM SHOULD MOVE                
EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY ISSUANCE TIME. ISOLATED TSRA CONTG ALONG                
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POCKETS OF REMAINING INSTABILITY. VISIBLE                
LOOP SHOWING SKIES CLEARING NW OF MCV WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO                
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NW INDIANA/NE IL...THOUGH A FEW                    
SHRA/TSRA ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE CLEARING ZONE. THIS                    
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT WILL                  
KEEP AN ISOLATED STORM MENTIONED IN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS WK SHRTWV                
MOVG EAST FROM IA MAY HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION BY LATE                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES GENERALLY BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT              
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAD RAIN THIS AFTN               
WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR NW. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION            
TO GRIDS/ZONES AND GO WITH MVFR VSBYS AT FWA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND               
EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MS              
VALLEY ON FRI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO NRN                    
INDIANA. THIS SHOULD HELP TRIGGER TSRA IN THE AFTN AS DAYTIME                   
HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY                 
THAT TIME.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS WITH TSTMS. MCV MOVG ACROSS NW INDIANA             
THIS AFTN. LAPS SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 4KJ/KG AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.             
SFC TROF ALSO EVIDENT FM ERN MI SW TO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. SCT                 
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTN. WITH WK SHEAR            
AND VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY                 
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS... VERY HEAVY RAIN.... AND SOME HAIL.                   
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVE ALONG SFC TROF AND                 
SUBSEQUENT TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SO HAVE CONTD WITH SCT POPS                  
THROUGH 00Z SE WITH A CHC NW. FOR THE EVE HOURS INHERITED LIKELY                
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM RUC13                  
INDICATING AN AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV WILL              
MOVE EAST FROM NW IA THIS AFTN TO ERN WI/NE IL BY 06Z. CURRENTLY                
MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WERE MOVG SSE HWVR              
SOME CONVECTION ALSO PUSHING EAST ACROSS NRN IA. CAN`T RULE OUT                 
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DVLPG AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV AND MOVG                  
INTO OUR AREA BY LATE EVE BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WITH CONVECTION              
UPSTREAM HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHC ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA IN                 
THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.                                                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... MAIN CONCERN IS THE                
SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IN ACTIVE PATTERN AS                   
POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRI              
INTO FRI NIGHT.                                                                 
LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...LEFT IN CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS                  
AS FA MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION/MCS CURRENTLY BACK IN IA WITH               
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE IA/SRN WI/NW IL VICINITY                    
TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH            
THE GFS HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND THE 12Z NAM                       
INITIALIZING POORLY WITH QPF. HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT THAT AN                    
ADDITIONAL MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE W WITH INCREASING LL CONV                
AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THETA-E/MOISTURE GRADIENT. WOULD             
THINK THAT THIS WOULD TRACK EASTWARD FOLLOWING PROGGED CORFIDI                  
VECTORS/7H FLOW. ALSO WOULD EXPECT THE MCS TO TRACK NEAR/JUST SOUTH             
OF STRONG INSTABILITY/THETA-E BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WNW                  
TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER. WITH THIS SAID...THINK THIS FEATURE WILL               
WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER FORCING WITH TRACK/SPEED IN QUESTION DUE            
TO LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP WITH CHC            
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.                        
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MCS RENMANTS IT ONCE               
AGAIN LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS                    
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS            
WILL YIELD MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR                        
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT/DIFFUSE SFC                
TROUGH RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTH IN REPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS                   
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THINK IT                
WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAK CAP NEAR 12KFT FOR SCT                             
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND. DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR NEEDED FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY STAY            
OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...HAIL/MICROBURST MULTICELLS A DISTINT                
POSSIBLITY WITH IMPRESSIVE CAPE...STEEP LL LAPSE RATES...AND                    
SOMEWHAT DRY MID-LEVELS.                                                        
FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE             
FRI AFTN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR MCI             
NE THRU DSM AND GRB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OUT AS DISCRETE            
SUPERCELLS AND THEN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL DRIVEN SQUALL                     
LINE/LEWP...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRI                 
NIGHT. SVR WX A CONCERN WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT            
THIS TO FALL APART AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LARGE SCALE                
FORCING WITH DIFF PVA/HEIGHT FALLS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN RIGHT              
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH...AND LL CONV              
ALONG SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AND INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HEAVY RAIN                    
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER NEAR 10KFT.                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE TO LONG TERM WITH OVERALL PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL                    
PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY USELESS ON DETAILS FOR SATURDAY WITH               
THE NEAR TERM SO MUDDLED THAT INITIALIZATION ISSUES ABOUND.  BUT THE            
LARGER DETAILS ARE STILL CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER             
GREAT LAKES AND ASSOC SFC FRONT ROLLING THROUGH ON SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY BUFR SOUNDINGS TO BE WELL              
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. WHILE ACTIVITY COULD FIRE EARLY                 
ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROF INDICATED BY NAM IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT...AS            
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...THAT DETAILS OF THE AFTERNOON                
EVOLUTION WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON FEATURES REMAINING FROM                  
FRIDAY NIGHTS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.                                             
COLD POOL THEN SETTLES IN WITH MODELS POORLY HANDLING STRENGTH AND              
LOCATION FROM RUN TO RUN WITH LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON H5                    
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LOW.  KEPT AFTERNOON POPS INTACT AND DID              
NOT ADD ANYTHING IN MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.                        
DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN NA LIFTS WITH BROADER TROFING IN ITS WAKE                 
KEEPING AREA UNDER UPPER NW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL                                                         
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                              
UPDATE/NEAR TERM...TAYLOR                                                       
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM NE MCS LOOKS LESS                  
LIKELY AT THE MOMENT.  SD CONVECTION MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE                    
SIGNIFICANT.  NO CHANGES YET HOWEVER. ADDED 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS OBVIOUSLY APPROACHING NE MCS.  EXTRAPOLATION            
BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE TO MY SWRN ZONES AROUND 200 AM SO HAVE                  
BOOSTED POPS SRN SECTIONS TO CATEGORICAL WORDING...NOW AREA WIDE.               
MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST COMPLEX SHOULD NOT MOVE NORTH             
OF DUE EAST AND WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  RUC 310K             
ISENT SFC FOCUSES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO SWRN IA AS WELL ON NOSE             
OF 35-50KT LLJ WHICH WOULD ALSO KEEP COMPLEX MORE SOUTH THAN NORTH.             
WITH SRN IA NOW SEEMING TO BE UNDER THE GUN...WILL EXPAND FFA TO ALL            
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 3...INCLUDING SWRN IA.                         
NOT SURE ON HOW STRONG THE MCS WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.                
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NRN KS MCS MAY STEAL SOME OF THE INFLOW              
POTENTIAL...AND RUC CINS COMPUTED FROM VARIOUS ELEVATED LEVELS                  
SUGGEST VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS STRENGTH SOMEWHAT.                   
HOWEVER HIGHER MCS MAINTENANCE PROBS ADVANCE INTO IA OVERNIGHT WITH             
SHEAR AND MUCAPES...AND KINEMATIC FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE MAY BE                
ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY APPARENT INHIBITION.  THUS SEE NO REASON WHY               
SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS WILL NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO IA.                 
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...HIGH WCDS AND INCREASING PWS STILL                  
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  MEAN WIND IS ONLY 20-25             
OVER IA BY 09Z AND CORFIDI VECTORS/MBE MOVEMENT EVEN LESS TO THE                
SOUTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
(TONIGHT)                                                                       
ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX...MADE MORE                
DIFFICULT BY THE COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE RATHER STRONG              
COLD POOL ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE             
CONVECTION...HAS HOVERED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST WITH LOWER TO             
MID 70S WEST.  CAPE VALUES ARE STILL RESPECTABLE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA             
BUT NOT NEAR AS LARGE AS THEY WERE AND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK.  GIVEN               
THAT CAPES ARE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS                 
STILL DECENT WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY               
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON            
AND EARLY EVENING.  THE KICKER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WHICH SHOULD THEN DEVELOP DOWN THE INSTABILITY             
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THUNDERSTORMS WITH            
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                    
MORNING.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NO HELP AS THEY DO NOT REALLY PICK UP            
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND THEY ARE ALL OVER THE                
PLACE WITH THE PRECIP AND QPF.  FOR NOW THE BEST INTERPRETATION OF              
THE DATA SUGGESTS AN MCS OVER THE DAKOTAS...OR SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF              
STORMS TO THE WEST...WILL EVENTUALLY COME TOGETHER AND ROLL ACROSS              
CENTRAL IOWA LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ONCE MORE AND PERSIST THROUGH            
THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.                                                      
(FRI-THU)                                                                       
ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL             
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT            
LAKES ON SATURDAY...BUCKLING THE ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW            
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CERTAINLY                         
UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST FOR FRIDAY AND WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE TO               
WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12Z AND PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH THE              
AREA AND BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. REMNANTS OF AN             
MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT SHOULD BE             
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH LIKE TODAY...RECOVERY            
DURING THE DAY WILL BE DEPENDANT IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN BREAK BY                
LATE MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO               
MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH MIXED LAYER               
CAPES TO OVER 3000 J/KG. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS INSTABILITY            
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A MULTICELLULAR SQUALL LINE ALONG THE                   
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD THEN BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MOVING EAST INTO THE            
EARLY EVENING HOURS.                                                            
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST                  
THROUGH MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE              
MID LEVEL COLD CORE PASSING NEARBY...SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH PROBLEM               
INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST               
HALF. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOW MELTING LEVELS AND            
NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...LARGE HAIL MAINLY NICKEL SIZED OR LESS               
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WITH THE COOLER LOW TO MID LEVEL                      
TEMPERATURES AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME              
RISING OUT OF THE 70S. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH            
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING              
THE AFTERNOON. GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...27/06Z                                                              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING TAF SITES BEGINNING              
AROUND 10Z AT FOD...AND OTHERS A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT.  NORTHERN END            
OF NE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT SO HAVE ONLY                  
INCLUDED SHOWERS AND CB MENTION AT FOD.  DID ADD THUNDER TO MCW/DSM             
TERMINALS HOWEVER AS SD STORMS APPEAR TO BE A BIT STRONGER...AND                
THUNDER FROM NEBRASKA SEEMS LIKE A BETTER BET FARTER SOUTH.                     
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS BY THE TIME IT REACHES ALO/OTM NOT             
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANYTHING BESIDES CB QUITE YET.  THIS                    
CONVECTION APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER                      
SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HENCE THUNDER IN BODY OF             
TAF FOR ALL SITES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HIGHWAY 3 SOUTH TO MISSOURI BORDER TIL 12Z.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FAB/RAD/BSS                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
120 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...QUIET NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS STILL SEEMS FINE FOR             
THE TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP               
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE                 
VOLATILE TOWARDS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE                 
GREAT LAKES.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TVC FIRST BY                
MID-AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY PLN/APN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR              
VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CIGS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE            
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                                            
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                         
UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK                
SURFACE LOW OVER THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN WITH SHALLOW COOL FRONT                  
EXTENDING SW THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.              
WEAK SURFACE HIGH HAS NUDGED IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                
MICHIGAN...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENCE HAS             
DRIED THE REGION SUBSTANTIALLY ALOFT EXCEPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS               
CIRRUS.  HOWEVER...COLUMN LOOKS TO MOISTEN IN EARNEST JUDGING BY 00Z            
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS FROM GRB/MPX AHEAD OF A MCV OVER WESTERN                     
WISCONSIN.  DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS MCV MOVES             
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A                 
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP            
THE MORE CLOUDIER SKIES SOUTH OF M-72.  A COUPLE OTHER NUISANT WX               
ITEMS TO DEAL WITH OVERNIGHT.  FIRST...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING               
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MAINTAINED MARINE FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS THE                
EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE...AND NW WINDS HAVE BEEN FUNNELING THE                 
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY AND INTO THE SOO AT TIMES.  WINDS              
SHOULD STAY PERSISTENT OUT OF THE NW FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND AM               
HARD PRESSED TO FIND A REASON FOR THE FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE.                 
SECOND...PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT/NE LOWER DID NOT             
MIX OUT AS WELL AS LOCATIONS TO THEIR SW...AND MAY SEE PATCHY FOG               
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BARRING THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT HINDER TEMPS              
TOO MUCH.  OTHER THAN THESE MINOR CHANGES...JUST A FEW OTHER TWEAKS             
BUT JUST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                                         
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF OUR CWA LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING             
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. LINGERING CU FIELD ACROSS THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA             
IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.                 
ISOLD WEAK CONVECTION IS STILL TRYING TO FIRE AROUND NRN SAGINAW BAY            
ALONG OUR SE BORDER...BUT IS HAVING A HARD TIME STAYING TOGETHER AS             
IT SUCCUMBS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND STABILITY. ONE MORE QUIET              
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR NRN MICHIGAN BEFORE CONVECTION AGAIN GEARS UP             
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE...WITH WAVES OF CONVECTION               
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW                 
STALLS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES.                                                
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING WEAK CONVECTION AROUND SAGINAW BAY SHOULD               
COME TO A CLOSE BEFORE 00Z. THEREAFTER...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY             
WX CAN BE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO              
INCREASE ACROSS THE SW CWA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT                 
LIFTING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO            
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                       
FRIDAY...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO OUR AREA...REACHING A              
LINE FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA TO GREEN BAY TO SE LOWER                   
MICHIGAN BY 00Z SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE (1000-500 MB RH OF 90 PCT)             
WILL POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LIFT TO GO AROUND...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF              
DPVA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I305) DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS              
IT LIFTS INTO OUR CWA. ENHANCED 850 MB THETA E VALUES WILL ADVECT               
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. WIND FIELDS WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK FRIDAY              
MORNING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LL JET            
MAX WILL NOSE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY...AS 850 MB WINDS            
INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM CHANCE POPS                  
CREEPING INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 DURING THE                      
MORNING...SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA IN THE            
AFTERNOON. NE HALF WILL SE CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY                
FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE             
WARM FRONT. REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL...BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE             
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...BEST                         
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WITH PEAK HEATING AND FRONT IS NEARING             
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S             
AND LOWER 80S.                                                                  
LONG TERM...LOOKS TO BE A STORMY WEEKEND WITH A BREAK IN THE EARLY              
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN            
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO MAKE SOME DISTINCTION BETWEEN                
RAIN AND NO RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH THE GFS SUFFERING FROM              
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA,              
TRIED TO BLEND LEANING TOWARD THE LESS CONTAMINATED MODEL, THE NAM              
FOR GUIDANCE.                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...INITIALLY, THE MODELS LOOK SIMILAR THROUGH              
ABOUT 06Z, WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING UP THROUGH N LOWER. IT LOOKS              
LIKE THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MOST OF N LOWER,                
THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE RAIN MOVES INTO NE LOWER AND E UPPER.                  
HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS IN THE 500 MB JET             
(THE DIFLUENT AXIS OF THE JET RUNS THROUGH MICHIGAN). THERE WILL BE             
AT THE LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF THE STATE. THE CHANCES FOR             
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER              
CAPE (AN APPROXIMATION FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE), LI, SI, AND 700-500 MB            
LAPSE RATES ARE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY THING TO              
WORRY ABOUT IS THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT AS THE LOW STACKS UP IN                  
WISCONSIN/W UPPER AROUND 18Z. WHICH WITH THE BULK SHEAR BEGIN GET               
INTO THE LOWER 40 KT RANGE AGAIN.                                               
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 500 MB LOW BEGINNING TO MEANDER OVER THE              
REGION, WOULD EXPECT THAT THE SFC BASED COMPONENT WITH THE CLOUDS               
AND THE LOSS OF SOLAR RADIATION. SO HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE               
SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW WILL TEND TO BE HIT AND MISS TO AN EXTENT.                
ALSO BY 12Z BOTH MODELS ARE BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR AS THE 850               
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 10C.                                                    
SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO AROUND 7C/KM,             
WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER US, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY.                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB LOW, WHICH IS FILLING, MOVES THROUGH SO               
WILL CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
EXTENDED (MONDAY THRU THURSDAY)...MONDAY, WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST              
OF THE REGION, THERE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS, PROBABLY IN THE MORNING,             
AND THEN CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT BEING 4 DAYS OUT, WON`T             
GET CUTE. TUESDAY, THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF THE REGION AND              
SF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SO DRY THROUGH THE DAY            
AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL              
PROBABLY MOVE INTO E UPPER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY,             
AS A LOW TRACKS INTO JAMES BAY, THE COLD FRONT DESCENDS AND BRINGS A            
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY, THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE                  
REGION SO MORE FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
201 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SEVERE WIND PRODUCING MCS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE               
FCST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MCS IS OCCURRING ALONG THE                 
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID/UPR LVL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AHEAD OF A SEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL S/W                  
TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH TROUGH                 
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO IDAHO/WYOMING. AS THE S/W TROUGH                      
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS DURING FRIDAY...A SFC COLD              
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A MORE                  
STABLE AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE                    
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BY 15-18Z FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE TO               
FOCUS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM                
SHOWS THAT MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP BENEATH A                      
COOLING MID LVL AIRMASS...AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE                  
BEHIND DEPARTING MCS WILL BE PRESENT...YIELDING SUFFICIENT CAPE                 
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE LOW                 
LVL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE               
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES                     
BECOMING THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS UPR                
LVL VORTEX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A REINFORCING SHOT OF RELATIVELY COLD AIR IS              
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.                  
THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND                
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY. SAME TREND CONTINUES INTO               
SUNDAY...WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE APPEARING MORE REASONABLE.                    
IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING               
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SHUNT                  
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH...FAVORING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY                   
MORNING. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO EMERGE AS              
UPR LVL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND UPR             
RIDGE OVER THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT...ALLOWING A WEAK                
LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS CHANGING UPR LVL PATTERN MAY ALLOW                  
STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES TO CREEP EAST INTO THE CWA...ALONG                  
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE...FAVORING A LOW PROBABILITY               
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FRONT INDICATED ACROSS NRN KS. A RETURN SERLY              
FLOW EXISTS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NEBR. MAIN COLD FRONT STILL BACK             
ACROSS WRN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NERN WYOMING. USING LATEST OBJECTIVE               
RUC ANALYSIS...FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID DESCENT INTO THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH TAF SITE KVTN BY AROUND 13Z AND KLBF             
BY 15Z. WINDS TO BE MAINLY NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH                 
HIGHER GUSTS BRIEFLY TO 25 KTS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW                  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TAF SITE KVTN MAINLY BTWN 14Z AND 20Z                
WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH NO TEMPO INSERTED FOR                
TSRA...WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND SATELLITE AND RADAR FOR                    
POSSIBLE ADDITION TO 12Z TAF. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SKC AFT 00Z                   
SATURDAY FOR BOTH TAF SITES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GARNER/ROBERG                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                       
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WATER               
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN AB/SK BORDER WITH             
SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AB/SK BORDER. SHORT WAVE WAS DIGGING               
SOUTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE                
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE OVER SOUTHEAST                
ND. E-W LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRAD WAS OVER EASTERN ND. RUC MAINTAINS               
PRESSURE FALLS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PRESSURE RISE CENTER            
OVER MT/SK/AB BORDER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS                  
MORNING WITH COLD FRONT MOVING IN. AREA VAD WINDS INDICATE FLOW                 
ABOVE 850 HPA WAS OUT OF THE WEST WHILE BELOW 850 HPA THE FLOW WAS              
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. NO MODEL HANDLED THE FLOW VERY WELL BELOW 850               
HPA. BEST INSTABILITY WAS OVER NORTHWEST MN AND INTO SOUTHEAST ND.              
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THETA-E GRADIENT THIS MORNING.               
EXTENDED...MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                  
NO CHANGES MADE TO ZONES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
APPARENTLY SOME FOG OVER DVL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA               
VFR WITH CIGS MOSTLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. CIGS LIKELY LOWER IN                 
-TSRA.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HOPPES                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
615 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM FCST AS IT IS DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY                     
MESOSCALE FEATURES.  WEAK S/W IS WORKING THRU WRN OH AND CNTRL KY               
ATT WHICH IS GENERATING SCT RW/TRW.  RUC13 AND LCL WRF RESOLVE TRW              
FILLING IN ACR THE ERN KY COALFIELDS DURING THE PREDAWN THEN MOVING             
OVER FAR SRN WV AND SWRN VA THIS MRNG.  ACTIVITY IN OHIO SHOULD                 
WEAKEN AND/OR LIFT NE.  DO NOT SEE MUCH TO FOCUS STORM INITIATION               
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W IN               
THE COAL FIELDS.  NONETHELESS...WITH POCKETS OF DCVA CROSSING CARRY             
AT LEAST AN ISOLD MENTION THIS MRNG.  CHC POPS WORK THIS AFTN WITH              
NOTHING MORE THAN SOLAR HEATING TRIGGERING STORMS.  KINEMATICS ARE              
WEAK /0-6KM BULK SHEAR < 20KTS/.  EQ LVL EXCEEDS 40KFT...FZL LVL                
15KFT...AND PWATS PUSH 2.0 OWING TO WATER LOADING...THEREFORE EXPECT            
TALL STORMS AND DOWNPOURS.  SREF PROB OF 2.0 KJKG-1 OF MLCAPE IS                
LESS THAN 30% AND THE LACK OF UPR LVL FORCING AND LOW SHEAR PROBS DO            
NOT FORESEE ORGANIZED STORMS.                                                   
TNGT CARRIES MORE QUESTION MARKS THAN TDY.  GFS/NAM BOTH HINT AT AN             
MCS DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND TREKKING E OVER THE OH VLY.              
GFS IS FARTHEST E BRINGING AN AREA OF STG H2 AGEO WIND DIV OVER THE             
CWA BTWN 6-12Z.  MEANWHILE...NAM IS NOT AS FAST BRINGING THE MCS                
THROUGH BTWN 12-18Z SAT.  OPTED FOR THE MIDDLE ROAD /TIMING WISE/               
WITH A DROP TO SCHC POPS MOST OF THE NGT THEN AN INC TO CHC OVER                
NWRN ZNS B4 DAYBREAK SAT.  H8 DWPTS OF 12C...NOCTURNAL LLVL                     
JET...AND HIGH SREF PROBS OF CINH LESS THAN 50JKG-1 WARRANTS A                  
MENTION OF PCPN ALL NGT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                  
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SUN.  BEST JUICE             
IS SAT IN THE W WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70...H8 THETA E VALUES TO                
340K AND UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.  FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH HEIGHT                 
FALLS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  PRECIP LOADING               
AND HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE            
WEATHER AS PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GET AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES.  WITH             
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WE WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP               
TRACK OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS REPEATEDLY.                            
FORCING IS PROVIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...DIFFERENTIAL                    
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW.  THERE IS SOME             
MODEL CONVERGENCE ON MCS ROLLING THROUGH SAT MORNING SO HAVE POPS               
ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE W THEN.                                             
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER SAT NT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT                
WEAKER AND LESS NUMEROUS WITH THE LESS OF HEATING BUT SHOULD NOT GO             
AWAY ALTOGETHER.                                                                
FRONT BECOMES HARDER TO FIND SUN AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACTUALLY              
WEAKENS.  NONETHELESS...SUN WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH GOOD MIXING              
AND DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.  WITH LOWER PW AND FREEZING LEVEL...THE                 
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DECREASES WHILE THE CHANCE FOR HAIL COMES UP.             
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH...RATHER AMPLIFIED AS WE TRANSITION            
FROM JUN TO JUL...MOVES ONLY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON NT.             
BY THIS TIME...WE HAVE MAINLY THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS THE            
SUN HEATS THE GROUND UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.  HAIL WILL                  
LIKELY BECOME A BIGGER THREAT THAN WIND MON.  INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE             
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE ARE OF COURSE HARD TO TIME AT              
THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY MODULATE DIURNAL CYCLE IN SOME WAY.                 
INHERITED HIGH FORECAST FOR SAT WAS BETWEEN THE HIGH MAV/FWC AND THE            
LOW MET...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER NUMBERS.  LEFT THIS ALONG AS HIGHS               
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...THE MET REFLECTING A                
CLOUDIER...WETTER AND THUS COOLER SOLN...WITH ITS POPS INDEED                   
HIGHEST.  RAISED LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE MIXED WARM SECTOR AIR AHEAD              
OF THE COLD FRONT.  SUN HIGHS WERE JUST ABOVE THE HIGHEST                       
NUMBERS...OPTED TO LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.  NO MAJOR CHANGES SUN NT                
THRU MON NT AS WE ARE JUST ABOVE THE MEX IN MOST CASES.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHARPENING OF H5 TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS FOR               
DAYS 4-5. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING ON VORT LOBES ROTATING                   
THROUGH BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS FAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED               
HPC SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS ECMWF EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AND ECMWF               
ENSEMBLES REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. THIS PUTS CWA IN LOW CHC POPS ON               
MONDAY...SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY. H5 TROUGH             
QUICKLY LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW.              
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY.                                                                         
WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN HPC ON SKIES DAYS 4-5...DUE TO                        
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF MID LEVEL FEATURES. TEMPS FROM HPC LOOK                
GOOD AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED SUIT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
ANY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS LIFTS BY 14Z.  SCT RW/TRW ARE XPCTD THE               
BALANCE OF THE FCST.  TOO TOUGH TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION AT A            
TERMINAL...SO ROLLING WITH CB.  MVFR VIS WL DEVELOP AT EKN AFT 6Z               
AND ANY SITE THAT EXPERIENCES RA DURING THE DAY.                                
.AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z SAT/...IFR PSBL IN TRW THRU                        
MON...MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ATMS REMAINS RIPE FOR DOWNPOURS THROUGH SAT AS PWATS PUSH 2.0                   
INCHES...WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND STG BL EQUIV POT TEMP ADV ARE                 
FCST.  NOT TO MENTION...ONE OR MORE MCS MAY CROSS THE AREA.  OUR                
MOST VULNERABLE AREAS ARE PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES...BUT DUE TO THE            
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING/PLACEMENT/QPF ELECTED NOT TO HOIST A FLASH                
FLOOD WATCH THIS MRNG.  DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE IS ISSUED LATER              
TODAY ONCE WE CAN BETTER DISCERN STORM PLACEMENT.                               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRM/29                                                               
NEAR TERM...29                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TRM                                                                
LONG TERM...30                                                                  
AVIATION...29                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...29                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
435 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND                  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY                    
NIGHT....PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE                 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST                 
PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A                       
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE MAINLY USED THE RUC MODEL FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.                      
A MCV WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS                    
FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A FLARE UP OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE                
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...BY WHICH THE                    
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END. CURRENT               
ZONES/GRIDS REFLECT THE HIGH THREAT FOR PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING.                
OTHERWISE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE                 
REGION TODAY. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A SHEARED OUT VORTICITY              
AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. THIS                  
FEATURE...ALONG WITH ANY SUBTLE MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY/WEAK                 
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 40 PERCENT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON               
HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IF IT                
WERE TO OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE TO MULTICELL VARIETY                  
GIVEN OVERALL WEAK SHEAR. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER                 
80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                         
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BECOMES COMPLEX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.               
THE OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF                
SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. IT IS THE MESOSCALE...ALONG WITH THE                    
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT IS SOMEWHAT MURKY AT                 
THIS POINT IN TIME.                                                             
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF WRN                
CANADA...MOVING TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN                  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.                       
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY              
NIGHT. BEFORE THEN...BOTH MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS              
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS                             
AFTN/EVENING...THEN MOVING IT QUICKLY EAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA               
SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. IF THIS MCS FORMS...IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINED BY               
A DEVELOPING 925 MB-850 MB JET. AGAIN...IT IS THE TIMING THAT IS                
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. HAVE DECIDED TO RAMP UP POPS ACRS THE FCST               
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THIS IS IN COLLABORATION WITH                 
MOST OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. SPC SWODY1 HAS JUST OUR WRN                    
FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...MOST               
LIKELY BANKING THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN              
AS IT HEADS EAST INTO A REGION WITH LESS FAVORABLE CAPES.                       
AGAIN...THIS IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...AND WHAT TRANSPIRES                 
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.                          
ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION FROM POTENTIAL MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING              
EARLY. THEN...MODELS HINT AT A PREFORNTAL TROF DEVELOPING ACRS THE              
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  AGAIN...WITH A MOIST AND                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY.                    
IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT THIS POINT THAT FFG VALUES CONTINUE TO                    
REMAIN LOW ACRS PARTS OF W CNTRL AND CNTRL OHIO FROM RECENT RAINS.              
NEXT FORECAST SHIFT...IF IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS WILL INDEED CROSS               
THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON                
SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO DECIDE ON A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH                  
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES EXPECTED                 
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                                           
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO                   
SETTLE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY                
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                  
REGION. IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL FORM BEHIND THE                         
FRONT...BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                
SUNDAY MORNING ACRS OUR REGION. THEREAFTER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE               
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES                       
ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE               
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE             
REGION.                                                                         
TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A COOL DOWN AFTER SATURDAY/S HIGHS IN                 
THE LOWER AND MID 80S. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER              
70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED DOWN...ESPECIALLY ON               
MONDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 850 MB TEMPS BELOW 10 C.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH               
THURSDAY. DRY WX ALONG WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN SOME                     
REDVLPMNT TO SCT SHRA BTWN THE DAY AND CMH METROS SOUTH TO AROUND               
KILN OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. MCV PROGGED TO TAKE A GOOD PART OF                
THE NIGHT TO MOVE EAST ACRS FCST AREA AND WITH 03Z RUC INDCG LO                 
LVL CONV AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...EXPECT SCT SHRA WILL                   
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SVRL HOURS INVOF THE MCV. CANNOT RULE OUT A                
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF                  
TERMINALS ATTM. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT KDAY AND KILN THRU                       
09Z...AND AT KCMH/KLCK THRU 12Z.                                                
ONCE MCV SHIFTS EAST AROUND DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GENERALLY QUIET                 
MRNG WITH ONLY MID/HI LVL CLOUD BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO THE                  
WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG THAT ONCE AGAIN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL                 
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY ERLY AFTN. MID LVL FORCING IS                     
GENERALLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED THIS AFTN. CONVECTION WILL FIRE                 
ALONG LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM TSRA THIS EVNG AND CURRENT                 
ACTIVITY AND WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN DURING              
PEAK HEATING. WILL PLACE CB IN ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN BUT ANY                  
ADDL DETAIL IS DIFFICULT ATTM. SHOULD SEE A GENERAL LULL IN                     
ACTIVITY THIS EVNG AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. 00Z MODELS INDCG                 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A DERECHO/SQUALL                 
LINE AFFECTING TERMINALS AFT 06Z SAT. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN GREATER              
DETAIL WITH NEXT SET OF TERMINALS.                                              
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
139 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE                       
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL               
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND                
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MCV IS STEADILY              
WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT                 
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL PRECIP                    
TOTALLY CLEARS THIS AREA...BUT DROPPED THE FFA FURTHER WEST.                    
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT AS CENTER OF MCV                   
ROTATES THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY              
NIGHT. BUT THEY GENERALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING                     
MESOSCALE TRIGGERS. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND CAN                    
FOR SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON             
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ALSO COULD START TO SEE SOME                   
ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF             
THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PCPN ONSET THAN THE            
ECMWF.  STORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCT/NUMEROUS            
PCPN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AGAIN...HIGH                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE RAIN SATURDAY...WITH              
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. SEASONABLY COOL AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND             
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.                                                            
A TRAILING UPPER TROF WILL LINGER SCT SHOWERS/STORMS INTO                       
MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.                          
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH                
THURSDAY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN SOME                     
REDVLPMNT TO SCT SHRA BTWN THE DAY AND CMH METROS SOUTH TO AROUND               
KILN OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. MCV PROGGED TO TAKE A GOOD PART OF                
THE NIGHT TO MOVE EAST ACRS FCST AREA AND WITH 03Z RUC INDCG LO                 
LVL CONV AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...EXPECT SCT SHRA WILL                   
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SVRL HOURS INVOF THE MCV. CANNOT RULE OUT A                
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF                  
TERMINALS ATTM. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT KDAY AND KILN THRU                       
09Z...AND AT KCMH/KLCK THRU 12Z.                                                
ONCE MCV SHIFTS EAST AROUND DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GENERALLY QUIET                 
MRNG WITH ONLY MID/HI LVL CLOUD BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO THE                  
WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG THAT ONCE AGAIN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL                 
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY ERLY AFTN. MID LVL FORCING IS                     
GENERALLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED THIS AFTN. CONVECTION WILL FIRE                 
ALONG LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM TSRA THIS EVNG AND CURRENT                 
ACTIVITY AND WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN DURING              
PEAK HEATING. WILL PLACE CB IN ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN BUT ANY                  
ADDL DETAIL IS DIFFICULT ATTM. SHOULD SEE A GENERAL LULL IN                     
ACTIVITY THIS EVNG AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. 00Z MODELS INDCG                 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A DERECHO/SQUALL                 
LINE AFFECTING TERMINALS AFT 06Z SAT. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN GREATER              
DETAIL WITH NEXT SET OF TERMINALS.                                              
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
915 AM MST FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH            
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE                
FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH              
TEMPERATURES ON THE DESERTS COULD EXCEED 110 DEGREES SUNDAY AND                 
MONDAY...BEFORE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED            
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL...BUT ONLY ACROSS THE                
HIGHER TERRAIN WELL EAST OF PHOENIX.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS AT PSR AND TUS INDICATED A SLIGHT DECREASE              
IN THE PRECIP WATER AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED NORTHEAST AND            
INTO NEW MEXICO. FGZ WAS A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO EARLY THURSDAY                
MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 10 THSD            
AND 18 THSD FT. IR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THE SIGNIFICANT              
DECREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST             
ARIZONA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MST. NAM APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST            
HANDLE ON THE VORTICITY PATTERN AND SHOWED THE 300MB WINDS SHIFTING             
SLIGHTLY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS OUT NEAR 32N/125W.               
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THAT THE NAM HAS A SLIGHT EDGE                
OVER THE DRIER GFS WITH REGARD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PATTERN.               
REL HUMIDITY AS DEPICTED ON LATEST RUC WAS WAY OVERDONE.                        
SO...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY IS UNDERWAY ON THE DESERTS. BUT THE                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STAYS WITH US FOR              
ZONE 24 DUE TO DESTABILIZED LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE.                          
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                     
ON SATURDAY THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST STARTS TO BUILD THE RIDGE...AND            
THE 500MB HIGH CENTER STARTS TO SHIFT NORTH. STILL...AS THIS OCCURS             
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS MAINTAIN A SWLY/WESTERLY DIRECTION AND LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE STAYS LOW. STEERING FLOW REMAINS UNFAVORABLE TO BRING                  
STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...SO WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE             
FOR AFTN/EVE STORMS ONLY OVER ZONE 24. AS H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB ABOUT                
20M...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AND REACH TO 110              
AT PHOENIX. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS                
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE              
HIGH CENTER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...OR EVEN FURTHER NORTH. AT THE            
SAME TIME MEAN 700-300MB STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY OVER               
OUR ERN CWA. DESPITE THE MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND            
THE STEERING FLOW...850MB DEWPOINTS DO NOT REALLY SURGE WESTWARD                
MUCH AND REMAIN LOW FROM PHOENIX WEST. DYNAMICS SUNDAY EVENING ARE              
FAVORABLE...WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SEEN IN THE GFS UPPER                    
STREAMLINE FIELDS. AS SUCH...POPS WILL BE RAISED SUNDAY EVENING TO              
ABOUT 20 PERCENT OVER ZONE 24...WITH 5 PERCENT POPS INTO THE PHOENIX            
AREA. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION                     
SUNDAY...POPS CAN CERTAINLY BE RAISED IN FUTURE PACKAGES. ONE                   
POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTOR...HEIGHTS BUILD FURTHER ON SUNDAY...TO               
ABOUT 593/594DM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. STRONG WARMING ALOFT COULD               
TEND TO CAP...AND LIMIT...CONVECTION. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST              
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN                  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING COULD BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME WE WILL KEEP               
MAX TEMPS BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS...WITH 111 FORECAST AT PHOENIX.              
FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE                   
WESTERLIES WILL START TO STRENGTHEN THEIR GRIP ON THE WEATHER                   
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AS AN INCREASING SWLY                
FLOW ALOFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AND STARTS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE             
AND SHIFT IT SOUTH AND EAST. H5 HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL ABOUT 40M                
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD TAPER OFF                  
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE...AS DEPICTED BY EITHER             
GFS OR EUROPEAN...IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER OUR CWA. AS              
SUCH WE WILL KEEP POPS NEAR TO CLIMO...AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX EACH DAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...                   
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KBLH...KIPL...AND KNYL AIRFIELDS.                       
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST            
DESERTS...BETWEEN KBLH AND KPHX THIS MORNING. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES             
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION NEAR KIPL/KYUM/KBLH.                              
SURFACE WINDS SLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER SE CALIFORNIA AND ALONG               
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...GENERALLY W-SWLY OVER             
THE CENTRAL DESERTS OF AZ WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS COMMON AT MOST                 
SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY.                                            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO            
THE EAST AND NORTH OF KPHX/KIWA AFTER 18Z...ACTIVITY PERSISTING                 
THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD FORM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST              
OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE N-NE...BUT FEEL              
STORMS WILL NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AFFECT               
KIWA...EVEN A MORE REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT KPHX.                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA            
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN             
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND              
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORMS WILL BE DRY...PRODUCING LITTLE                     
PRECIPITATION...YET GENERATING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS CAPABLE OF                 
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST                
REGION-WIDE AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS              
TO LOWER TEENS...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY            
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...SAS/CB                                                             
AVIATION...MEYERS                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS                                                           
</pre> az                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                              
ANOTHER DAY WITH A VERY COMPLICATED MESOSCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE                
REGION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE                    
CWA... AHEAD OF MCV CENTERED NEAR KCMI. STILL SEEING SHOWERS                    
ARCING BACK ACROSS DOUGLAS/MOULTRIE/MACON COUNTIES. MEANWHILE                   
ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                    
ILLINOIS... AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE LAWRENCEVILLE AREA                    
BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON.                                                         
ANOTHER MCV WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH                     
TRAILING BOUNDARY ARCING BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. VISIBLE                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW CLEAR SLOT AND SFC OBS INDICATE                  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. RADAR                    
TRENDS INDICATE A FEW NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP AHEAD OF                  
THIS FEATURE AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE PARENT MCV MOVING                 
NORTHEASTWARD... EXPECT THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY TO DRAG ACROSS THE               
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.                                                        
WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS... BUT                
THIS WILL STILL RESULT IN A FRAGMENTED 1ST PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORM               
COMPLEX MOVING SOUTH OF I-70 AND SHOWERS INVOF EASTERN MCV WILL                 
LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 18-19Z. POST-18Z POP GRID STILL                  
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                      
SHOULD HAVE NEW PRODUCTS OUT BY 11 AM.                                          
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                               
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PIA TAF SITE                
AND ARE NEAR SPI. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO GET CLOSE TO DEC...BMI                 
AND CMI THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN ALL TAFS. WILL KEEP               
EARLIER TAFS SIMILAR WITH PROB30 T-STORMS DURING THE LATE                       
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AT ALL SITES. QUESTION IS WHEN WILL                  
MAIN FRONT PUSH THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL GET                
THROUGH A FEW OF OUR SITES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...BUT DUE TO                     
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND OTHER                  
PERIODS OF CONVECTION PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL NOT HAVE FROPA IN                
THIS SET OF TAFS. WILL PASS ON TO NEXT SHIFT. ALSO...WINDS WILL                 
REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR                       
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS. INSIDE STORMS...CAN              
EXPECT CIGS TO BE MVFR AND VIS TO BE IFR.                                       
AUTEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                               
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT HANDLING               
MCS ACTIVITY VERY WELL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. BROKEN BAND OF                 
CONVECTION QUICKLY FIRED UP DURING THE PAST HOUR FROM SE IA INTO                
WEST CENTRAL IL NEAR THE MS RIVER AND LIFTING ENE. RUC MODEL                    
HINTED AT THIS SCENARIO THOUGH DEVELOPED QPF TOO QUICKLY. WILL                  
ADDRESS CONVECTION CHANCES ALONG WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS              
THROUGH SAT AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THROUGH IL LATER TONIGHT AND                
INTO SAT.                                                                       
08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER               
MI/WI/MN. MATURE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KY WITH WEAKER MCS                
OVER SW MN/EASTERN SD AND FAR NW IA. NEWLY DEVELOPED BROKEN LINE                
OF CONVECTION FROM SE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AND ANOTHER AREA OF               
CONVECTION OVER SW IL SW OF MOUNT VERNON. CONVECTION IN WESTERN IL              
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SW LOW LEVEL JET/WARM FRONT. MOIST DEWPOINTS              
IN THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH                  
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. ALOFT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW OVER CANADA.               
SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND ALSO IN THE                
DAKOTAS. 553 DM 500 MB LOW WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND                   
SASKETCHEWAN BORDER AND DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO LIKELY                  
ALONG AND NW OF I-55 ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WITH BROKEN LINE OF                
CONVECTION MOVING ENE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THESE                   
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND                  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS ACORSS EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL TODAY. MOST SHORT                   
RANGE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE/MCV MOVING INTO IL FROM NE KS THIS               
AFTERNOON. THIS MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH PEAK HEATING              
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION. TONED DOWN                 
HIGHS A BIT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY                 
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AS WAS THE CASE NW OF I-70 YESTERDAY. STILL                
VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL IL AND               
LOWER 90S SE IL FROM I-70 SE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. COULD BE                
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH                     
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND ARRIVING MCV.                                             
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL              
ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER BY              
MIDNIGHT AND TO I-55 BY 12Z/SAT. THIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF                   
AMPLIFYING/DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST FROM SOUTHERN                        
ALBERTA/SASKETCHEWAN. INCREASED POPS TO 80% NW OF I-70 TONIGHT.                 
SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL                 
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-57 WITH 15 TO 30%               
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES (2%). COLD FRONT              
COLLIDING WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES PEAKING FROM 2000            
TO 3000 J/KG WEST OF I-57. BUT LIMITNG FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD                   
SEVERE STORMS IS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BEST WIND FIELDS ARE                  
NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. ALSO MORNING CONVECTION COULD LIMIT HEATING AND            
DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CONCERN FOR HEAVY            
RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. HAVE 0.75              
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH             
YET SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE 1.75 TO 2.5 INCHES PER                
HOUR...2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 6 HOURS.              
BUT ISOLATED AREAS IN THE IL RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE LOCAL 1.5 TO 3              
INCH AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TUE NIGHT.              
COLD FRONT SLIDE SE THROUGH SE IL SAT AND CONTINUES GOOD CHANCE OF              
CONVECTION IN EASTERN IL ESPECIALLY SAT MORNING AND MAINLY IN SE                
IL SAT AFTERNOON. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SAT SE OF A              
CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE WITH BEST CHANCE SE OF A DANVILLE TO              
EFFINGHAM LINE WHERE CAPES PEAK FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A DRY                   
WEDGE WORKS INTO CENTRAL IL DURING SAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH               
DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S WITH WEST BREEZES. COOLER HIGHS              
IN THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL IL AND MID 80S SE IL.                                  
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SE IL UNTIL SUNSET SAT                          
EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SAT NIGHT. MODELS                    
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE INTO                     
NORTHERN MI SUNDAY AND TRENDING A BIT CLOUDIER...COOLER...BREEZIER              
AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                        
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. COOLED                 
HIGHS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND INCREASED WNW WINDS TO                
BREEZIER LEVELS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.                                                
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY              
TUE TAKING ITS SHOWERS EAST OF IL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AREAS                   
ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER COULD STILL SEE A RISK OF SHOWERS AND                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON.                                           
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY             
MODIFYING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL             
HEIGHTS RISE OVER IL BY MID WEEK. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER         
80S WED AND THU AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE AS WELL. ECMWF SHOWING              
COLD FRONT AND QPF MOVING INTO IL THU. THIS IS A DAY SOONER THAN THE            
GFS AND DGEX MODELS WHEN IT BRINGS THIS INTO IL ON FRI. NO CHANGES              
MADE YET SINCE AWAITING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT.                    
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
703 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
339 AM CDT                                                                      
THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE 850 MB AND               
700 MB PROFILER DATA SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL               
ILLINOIS. THE RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO                 
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH OUR               
FORECAST AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND                
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY THIS MORNING.                                              
THE JET STREAM WAS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN                         
MINNESOTA AT 00 UTC. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN                
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG               
THIS FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS IS WHY WE WILL HAVE LIKELY                         
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                 
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS               
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.                  
DEPENDING ON THE RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WE                
MAY CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY. WILL WAIT FOR                  
NOW.                                                                            
THE DEVELOPING WAVE TROUGH OVER ALBERTA WILL BECOME LARGER AS                   
IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE                 
INTO WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY. WE WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY               
SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR WARNING. THEN                 
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOR THE NORTH HALF OF OUR                
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW                         
TEMPERATURE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE LOWER THEM A LITTLE AS WE                 
HAVE FORECAST MORE CLOUDS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
702 AM CDT                                                                      
12Z TAFORS...MCV MOVING ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER REVEALED BY TWIST                
IN ECHOES SEEN IN RADAR LOOP. EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS EASTERN                
IA AND WESTERN IL ARE MORE TS AS 35-45KT H8 JET PER PROFILER AND                
88D NETS GENERATING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF               
TSRA HAS BEEN SLOWING WITH TIM. EXTRAPOLATION OF LATEST MOVEMENT                
HAS CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE CHI VC AROUND 16Z. RUC SHOWS THE                 
AREA OF UVV CONTINUING TO MOVE E BUT WEAKENING...AND HAS THE UVV                
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. WITH SLOWING AND SUGGESTED WEAKENING              
HAVE BROUGHT TSRA INTO KRFD 15-17Z BUT WITH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING               
ONLY HAVE SHRA INTO CHI TERMINALS.                                              
NEXT SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY DROPPING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN                      
DAKOTAS...TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AND PROGGED TO REACH EASTERN                
MN...IA AND MO BY 00Z SAT. SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL                  
FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING                
AS UPPER LOW DIGS SE FM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO EASTERN ND. STRONG                  
WAA IN LOWER LEVELS UNDER NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION IN MID LEVELS TO               
LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION FOR TONIGHT.                                    
SHORT WAVE IS LIFTED NE THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WESTERN                  
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION CROSSES OVER MN.                 
THIS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT W TO E ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN 08-12Z                 
WINDOW.                                                                         
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
305 AM CDT                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TO               
NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES A WARM FRONT LIFTS N TO                  
NORTHERN LK MI BY LATE EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT SWINGS E ACROSS              
LAKE MICHIGAN SAT MORNING. STABLE AIR-WATER INTERFACE WITH VERY WARM            
AIR OVER COOL WATER AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS PRETTY                   
LIGHT TODAY. COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SAT. TIGHTER               
GRADIENT BUT STILL WARM AIR SO WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE                   
APPRECIABLY UNTIL TROF/SECONDARY COLD FRONT ROTATES THRU THE                    
WESTERN GRTLKS DURING SUN.                                                      
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1006 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT IN FORECAST IS NECESSARY. RUC HAS A NICE                 
HANDLE ON SHORTWAVES THOUGH IT APPEARS OVERDONE FOR CAPE IN SOUNDINGS.          
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KY DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF            
2000 J/KG FROM 925-850 MB LAYER (IN RUC...IN NAM THAT AREA IS SOUTH             
OF KY) AND AIDED BY THKJKLNOWJKLE TAIL END OF A VORT. A WEAKER WAVE IS MOVING   
INTO CENTRAL KY. STRONGER SHORTWAVES OVER MO/IL MIGHT AFFECT AREA               
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE RUC SHOWS SOME DECENT 250 MB DIVERGENCE TO             
AID CONVECTION ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT ITS CONVERGENT              
COUPLET TO HELP END IT BY 28/00Z. ATTM...THINK SCATTERED STORMS ARE             
A GIVEN THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW OF THEM GETTING SEVERE ARE LIKELY.             
DON/T THINK THE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN MUCH FROM            
YESTERDAYS LEVELS.                                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                    
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WANING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                  
PORTION OF THE NATION WHILE A WAVY WARM FRONT IS LAYING ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES RUNNING EAST FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST. EACH DAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN A BIT               
MORE SO THAT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO PUSH              
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS PAST EVENING. WHILE THESE              
INITIAL STORMS HAVE STALLED AND DISSIPATED...THEY LEFT BEHIND A                 
BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ACTIVITY...JUST TO THE                 
NORTHWEST OF JKL. A LARGE FACTOR IN THE ABILITY OF THESE STORMS TO              
SETTLE DEEPER INTO OUR REGION THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IS THE PRESENCE OF A           
WELL DEFINED MCV CURRENTLY CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE SKY                 
COVER MIRRORS THE RADAR IMAGES WITH LOWER AND THICKER CLOUDS OVER THE           
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND MAINLY RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS               
FOUND OVER THE EAST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE RUNNING FROM THE            
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 70S ON THE RIDGES WHILE DEWPOINTS           
ARE UP IN THE MIDDLE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.                              
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY              
STRONG...CLOSED UPPER LOW RIDING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER               
MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED FEATURE THEN SPINS INTO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
FOR SUNDAY...MAINTAINING IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY              
RIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS MATCH UP              
QUITE WELL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS PULL THE           
LOW NORTHEAST A TAD QUICKER THAN THE LATEST NAM. NEVERTHELESS...                
PREFER THE NAM/S ATTEMPT AT FORECASTING THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES...               
SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN                
EVOLUTION. IN GENERAL...THE SPECIFICS OF THE NAM12 WERE FOLLOWED                
THROUGH 84 HOURS.                                                               
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE BUILDUP             
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN A BROAD            
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE UNDERLYING                 
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION...WHILE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE DIURNAL             
CYCLE OF INSTABILITY...WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF              
SFC BOUNDARIES AND PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM MCVS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE              
ATTEMPTED TO DRAW THE POP...AND IN A SIMILAR MANNER SKY...GRIDS BASED           
ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE           
FROM THE NAM12 AND A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT. THIS MUDDLED FORECAST            
SITUATION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON SATURDAY WHEN A           
WELL MODELED COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING INTO AND CROSSING THE AREA             
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE THE UPPER SUPPORT OF A              
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CLOSE                 
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ALREADY QUITE MOIST           
AIR COLUMN OVER THE REGION...THE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL YIELD THE BEST             
SHOT FOR ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE MAIN              
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. IN                   
ADDITION...THE STORMS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EFFICIENT              
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE           
RAINFALL...HOWEVER THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS LESS OF A           
CONCERN THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WHAT IS NORMAL IN THE GOING ON TWO               
YEARS OF DROUGHT OR NEAR DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA. INTERPRETING THE              
PREFERRED NAM SOLUTION FOR SFC FEATURES AND RESULTING WX...WILL BRING           
THE COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY CLEAR             
THE POPS OUT WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...THOUGH HELD THEM RELATIVELY               
STEADY FOR A TIME AT PEAK HEATING AND DURING A TIME OF INCREASING               
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER              
LOW CENTER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTINUING           
INTO MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.                 
DESPITE PREFERRING THE MET/S PARENT MODEL...ACTUALLY SAW THE MAV                
TEMPERATURE NUMBERS AS MORE REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR              
POPS DID END UP CLOSEST TO THE MET ONES.                                        
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                          
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS SREF/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS AGREE             
FAIRLY WELL REGARDING THE UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE (FOR JULY) AND               
POSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN U.S. LATE                 
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN BUILDING THE RIDGE AGAIN. HPC GUIDANCE WAS                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA AND HELD ON TO IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN                   
SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THAT SHORTWAVE DOWN AND WE MAY BE HOLDING                
ONTO AND/OR EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON (MEX SHOWS CATEGORICAL               
POPS ON SUN). BY WED THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS            
AND A RETURN TO HOT/HUMID IS LIKELY BY THEN.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                        
WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED           
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO USE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS                       
SCENARIO...SINCE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF TS TOO FAR IN ADVANCE IN          
THIS SITUATION IS DIFFICULT. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF IT APPEARS A TS            
WILL AFFECT A PARTICULAR TAF SITE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS              
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE               
EXPECTED IN INDIVIDUAL TS. TS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER           
SUNSET. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF              
THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX JUST              
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS FOR               
LATER FORECASTS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF/GV                                                           
LONG TERM....GV                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A FEW SHRTWVS             
OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM...BOTH PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN...WITH THE KDLH                 
RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED -TSRA TO THE WEST AND NW OF DULUTH. THE               
SECOND IS BACK IN THE DAKOTAS...WITH ACTUALLY A LARGE AREA OF                   
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA BETWEEN PIERRE AND ABERDEEN. UPPER MI                 
CURRENTLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...BEING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE MN            
SHRTWV AND THE STRONGER UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN.             
THIS UPPER RIDGING IS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE              
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE HIGH CLOUDS              
ARE ENCROACHING. 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW AND 12Z RAOB FROM GRB             
DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP AROUND 750MB.            
DRY AIR EVIDENT AS WELL BOTH AT AND BELOW THIS INVERSION...WITH THE             
GRB SOUNDING SHOWING 925MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 8C. OTHER ITEM TO             
NOTE IS THE PERSISTENT FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SHIP OB JUST CAME IN             
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS AND SHOWED 1/8SM VSBY.                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON TRYING TO FORECAST TSRA                       
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWING CAPPING AND DRY                  
AIR...AND THE FACT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL MUCH TODAY (LIKELY            
INDICATING CAPPING TO STAY IN PLACE)...THINKING IS AT LEAST THE                 
CENTRAL U.P. WILL NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PCPN BEFORE 00Z. THE 12Z RUC              
AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT...WITH SOUNDINGS AT IMT...MQT AND ERY               
CAPPED WITH TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME (AIDED BY DAYTIME MIXING                   
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE). THE ONLY PLACE THAT LOOKS GOOD              
FOR PCPN TO FORM IS IN THE WESTERN U.P....ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS              
THIN OUT SOME WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING IN THE LATEST VISIBLE               
SATELLITE IMAGES. AIRMASS THERE IS A BIT MORE MOIST OVERALL...WHICH             
SHOULD HOLD THE DEWPOINTS UP. WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE MID TO                
PERHAPS UPPER 70S...AND HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV (HELPING TO ELIMINATE CAPPING)...                 
MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...FOR THIS                
AFTN...MAINTAINED 70 POPS OUT IN THE WEST...AND LOWERED TO 20 IN THE            
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. SVR WX POTENTIAL NOT TOO GREAT...GIVEN 0-6KM            
SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KNOTS.                                                    
REGARDING THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...ADJUSTED IT A BIT BASED ON WIND            
DIRECTION FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF               
THE KEWEENAW BEING IMPACTED WITH EAST WINDS PICKING UP.                         
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE SHORES BASED ON WIND                          
DIRECTIONS...WITH THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SITE ON THE EAST SIDE OF               
THE KEWEENAW REPORTING 57...BIG BAY AT 61 AND GRAND MARAIS AT 54.               
ALL THREE SITES SHOULD SEE ONSHORE WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE                  
DAY...THUS LOWERED HIGHS AT ALL THREE AREAS.                                    
WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS AFTER 00Z TO DELAY PCPN MOVING INTO THE                
EASTERN U.P.. STILL THINK THE 70 POPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...WITH              
THE NEXT SHRTWV IN THE DAKOTAS MOVING INTO THE CWA...ALONG WITH ITS             
ASSOCIATED SHRA AND TSRA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
KIND OF A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. STRONGEST FEATURE OF              
NOTE IS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS ALBERTA AND WESTERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN WHICH SHOWS UP AS STRONG DARKENING AND STRONG CYCLONIC             
ROTATION ON WATER VAPOR. THERE ARE NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT                
WERE EITHER CAUSING CONVECTION OR WERE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED ACROSS              
THE PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                                               
THE NAM TAKES THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIGS IT                
SOUTHEAST AND FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WITH IT ACROSS THE CANADIAN             
PRAIRIES WITH THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SAT. THE NAM              
THEN BRINGS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW INTO THE WESTERN U.P. 00Z SUN AND             
THEN SLOWLY MOVES IT EAST TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE 00Z MON AND THEN              
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BUILDS A STRONG 500 MB                
RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH PLENTY OF                  
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT. NAM THEN SHOWS A DRY SLOT            
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SAT WITH DYNAMICS DEPARTING AS WELL AS THE              
CLOSED 500 MB LOW COMES INTO THE AREA. NAM THEN BRINGS BACK IN                  
MOISTURE WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN               
WITH THE MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE OUT ON MON. NAM SHOWING SOME                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I300K-I315K SURFACES WITH MOISTURE TONIGHT AND               
THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT WITH LIFT MOVING OUT ON SAT. GFS IS SIMILAR              
TO THE NAM AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST.                   
WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE              
IN TIMING IS PRETTY LOW ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WILL             
HAVE LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS                  
MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH MOISTURE. HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH              
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DRY SLOT SATURDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND ADDED INTO THE FORECAST WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS             
THE AREA. ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN ANY CONVECTION THAT                 
FORMS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT               
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA              
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT AT             
THE SFC EVEN WITH SOME MIXING. OVERALL...GOING FORECAST WAS GOOD AND            
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES. FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH             
TONIGHT AT LEAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THE WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH PUSH FOG/STRATUS UP THE HILL TO            
KCMX. EASTERLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD LOCK IN MVFR CIGS AT KCMX WITH                 
POTENTIAL OF LATE AFTN SHRA/TSRA AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.            
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR FRI EVENING UNDER                     
UPSLOPING MOIST EAST FLOW. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE               
RULE FOR MUCH THROUGH TODAY WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA PROBABLY HOLDING OFF             
TIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH                    
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WITH SURFACE                
BASE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE DENSE FOG IN THE            
MORNING AT BOTH LOCATIONS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN            
20 KNOTS. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO LAKE                    
SUPERIOR ON TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN              
CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OVER                   
CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE              
LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN                
CAUSING THE WINDS TO BE LESS AN 20 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...AJ                                                            
DISCUSSION...GM                                                                 
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
651 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/                                             
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERED ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY AND                  
INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEVERITY ALSO AN ISSUE.                                     
MESSY SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AT PRESENT...DUE TO THE                   
INFLUENCES OF MCS ACTIVITY. MAIN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS                
TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR                    
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE               
OF DAYS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN                     
BORDER...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. REGION OF                      
CONVECTION STRETCHES ALL ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF                            
MINNESOTA...WITH MOST ENERGETIC STORMS VERY NEAR THE FORECAST                   
AREA...IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.                                                  
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                   
EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE                
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED               
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL              
VORTICITY CENTERS FLOATING AROUND /LARGELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/                
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST                
MUCAPES OF 2 KJ/KG EXIST OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST               
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WITH              
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY. THE              
TORNADO THREAT WILL HINGE ON HOW THE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS                      
MORNINGS ACTIVITY AFFECTS THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES...AS                  
WELL AS HOW MUCH OF AN AFFECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL                   
PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL                   
SWING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN THE                
COLDER AIR...WHICH COULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED                    
STORMS IN THAT AREA.                                                            
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY                     
MORNING...WHICH COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                     
CERTAINLY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON               
HOURS BENEATH THE COLD CORE ALOFT...BUT WHAT MAY BE AN ISSUE IS                 
NON SUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW                
MAY BE ARRIVING IN THE AREA AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME OF DAY TO                    
PREVENT THIS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN                      
WISCONSIN...BUT IT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY                
IN WISCONSIN.                                                                   
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING                 
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION               
BEING LARGELY GONE FROM MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FOR A COUPLE OF                 
DAYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE                   
TAKES THE LOWS PLACE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN SLIDING EWD ACROSS FAR                
SOUTHERN MN...SOUTH OF TAF SITES. MEANWHILE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN                   
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OR EAST CENTRAL MN. RUC AND                 
OTHER MODELS HAD INDICATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT SUCH A               
SCENARIO WAS LIKELY...WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THIS AREA. BACKED            
OFF ON THE CHC OF RAIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FRONT AND TROUGH               
HELP SET OFF SOME STORMS. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONE AREA OF STORMS              
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON ALONG TROUGH LINE IN FAR EASTERN MN OR                 
WRN WISC...AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MN ALONG FRONT. GUSTY              
WNW WINDS AFTER FRONT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...COULD BE ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY TODAY FOR CONVECTION.            
WITH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY THE ATMOSPHERE                 
REALLY DIDN`T GET WORKED OVER TOO MUCH. MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER             
THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE IT                
LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S(INSTEAD OF             
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S LIKE YESTERDAY). TEMPERATURES ARE            
WARMING UP FAST WITH MID 80S ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WV                
SHOWS AND AREA OF LIFT/ENHANCEMENT OVER CNTRL MS AND THIS COULD COME            
INTO PLAY PRETTY SOON. ALSO THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME COLD POCKETS                
WORKING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE AREA AS             
IT IS KEEPING OUR LAPSE RATES FROM IMPROVING LIKE PREVIOUSLY                    
THOUGHT. LOCAL SNDGS SHOW VT AGAIN IN THE 27-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF            
THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS IS STILL PRETTY GOOD. WET MICROBURST                     
CHECKLIST ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A DECENT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS            
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 20. THE SOUTH LAPSE RATES WILL NOT              
BE QUITE AS STEEP AND CONVECTION MAY FIRE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY WHICH            
WOULD HURT OVER ALL INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO               
WARM TO POTENTIAL. ONCE AGAIN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE QUITE                
SUBTLE AND WITH NO REAL FLOW TO TALK ABOUT IN THE MID LEVELS                    
CONVECTION WILL BE SOLELY DEPENDANT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES I.E. OLD              
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY AND NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS                
TODAY. OVERALL SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND WIDESPREAD                   
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH LOOKS TO BE CASE WITH ISLTD TO SCT STRONG               
STORMS AND SOME OF THOSE REACHING SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON AND              
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPDATED ZFP AND GRIDS WILL BE OUT                 
SHORTLY ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL             
AS WE SPEAK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL CONVECTION STARTS.                
ONCE THAT OCCURS STORMS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO TEMPORARILY DROP INTO            
MVR STATUS WITH VISBIES FALLING INTO IFR STATUS. STRONG WINDS WILL              
BE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL(BUT THE HAIL RICK            
IS NOT NEARLY SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS                 
TIME). CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CALM DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET              
WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER ONCE AGAIN. AFTER THAT SOME LOW                 
CLOUDS OR FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT                
THAT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS HAS HAD A HARD              
TIME MATERIALIZING THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.                                         
/BB/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       91  72  91  71 /  46  16  25  23                                  
MERIDIAN      91  70  90  70 /  54  21  26  25                                  
VICKSBURG     91  73  92  72 /  37  13  25  22                                  
HATTIESBURG   89  71  91  71 /  66  21  45  23                                  
NATCHEZ       88  71  89  71 /  56  16  45  19                                  
GREENVILLE    93  73  93  71 /  23  12  26  45                                  
GREENWOOD     92  72  92  72 /  25  14  26  45                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAB                                                                             
</pre> ms                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1048 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST            
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR DTL WITH            
AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING THROUGH NW MN ALONG A TVF-ROX LINE. KMVX             
SHOWS RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL ND AND PARTS OF NW AND WC MN.            
WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD                  
AGREEMENT...SO USED MODEL COMPROMISE FOR FORECAST.                              
WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION AND LITTLE CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS TODAY...NOT EXPECTING A VERY LONG LULL IN CONVECTIVE                  
ACTIVITY TODAY. MODELS HAVE SURFACED BASED CAPE UP TO 2000 BY 18Z               
AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS             
YEAR...WITH THE COLD CORE 500MB LOW STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS ND.                
THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME                 
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE                 
WEATHER THREATS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...             
CUT BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...AND THEN             
PUSHED THE LIKELY AREA BACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS                   
AFTERNOON... DUE TO A LITTLE SLOWER SYSTEM TIMING. OTHERWISE...REST             
OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                 
TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD BECOME              
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO TURN MORE NW AND BECOME                
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY BY 20Z.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                        
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE N PLAINS TODAY. WATER VAPOR                
LOOP SHOWS CIRCULATION CENTER OVER N AB/SK BORDER WITH SHORT WAVE               
OVER THE S AB/SK BORDER. SHORT WAVE WAS DIGGING SE ABOUT 35 KNOTS.              
COLD FRONT OVER NW ND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE OVER SE ND. E-W               
LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRAD WAS OVER E ND. RUC MAINTAINS PRESSURE                    
FALLS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER                
MT/SK/AB BORDER MOVES INTO THE W DAKOTAS LATER THIS MORNING WITH                
COLD FRONT MOVING IN. AREA VAD WINDS INDICATE FLOW ABOVE 850 HPA                
WAS OUT OF THE W WHILE BELOW 850 HPA THE FLOW WAS S OR SE. NO                   
MODEL HANDLED THE FLOW VERY WELL BELOW 850 HPA. BEST INSTABILITY                
WAS OVER NW MN AND INTO SE ND. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG               
THETA-E GRADIENT THIS MORNING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND            
AND ALLOW MOIST UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS                 
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE                  
MONDAY AND BRING IN A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH               
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS A LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE               
SOUNDINGS AT OHX AND FFC HAD WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN                 
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY AT FFC. HOWEVER...MIXED DEWPOINTS WILL BE                
HIGHER TODAY...AND TAKING A TEMPERATURE OF 89 AND A DEWPOINT OF 65              
YIELDS A SBCAPE OF AROUND 1500 AT FFC AND 2000 AT OHX. AT 850                   
MB...LLVL JET AXIS LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER N OF THE FA...WITH AROUND              
30 KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NRN TN/KY AND THE VIRGINIAS. THE RUC             
IMPLIES WEAK H5 NVA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT THE               
HAND ANALYSIS IMPLIES. WITH FREEZING LEVEL TEMPS OVER 13000                     
FEET...FIRST GUESS 50-55DBZ CORE HEIGHTS OVER AROUND 32KFT LOOK GOOD            
FOR SEVERE HAIL. WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS ICE IN            
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH FAIRLY MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL            
RESULT IN LESS OF A MICROBURST THREAT TODAY...BUT TALLER STORMS                 
COULD STILL PRODUCE 50KT GUSTS.                                                 
AS FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THE OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE                      
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT MORE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE                   
CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR SHOULD STILL RESULT IN NO MORE THAN 40 TO 50               
PERCENT COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE               
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THIS LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHAT WE HAVE              
IN THE GRIDS NOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS FAR AS                  
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. THE MODELS ADVERTISE                  
LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A COLD FROPA BY SUN                  
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE                 
UPPER 60S WILL HELP GENERATE HIGH SBCAPES. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LESS            
DYNAMIC DAY WITH WEAK DEEP FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR                        
PRESENT...BUT ISO/SCT TS CELLS WILL DEVELOPING THROUGH THE                      
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT WITH GOOD INSOLATION EXPECTED AND             
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BECOMING CYCLONIC.                                      
INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z GFS IS ONLY PRODUCING AROUND 250 J/KG OF CAPE             
SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN DEWPOINT POOLING SHOULD BE THE            
GREATEST. THE 00Z NAM HAS AROUND 2000 J/KG. A CAP IS NOTED ON THE               
GFS SOUNDINGS SUN AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SW/LY H85 35 KT                   
JET...HOWEVER THERE REALLY SHOULD BE NO REASON WHY INSTABILITY WONT             
BE HIGH...EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH INCOMING UPPER TROF            
WHICH MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S AND ALLOW THE LLVL CAP TO             
REMAIN IN CONTROL. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK STRONG SUN WITH STRONG H3                
DIVERGENCE SETTING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY COUPLING WITH INCREASING               
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ENERGY WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE DEEP OMEGA. SO...WONT             
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SWEEPING                 
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                           
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE MTNS SUN NIGHT AND SLOWS DOWN ACCORDING              
TO THE GFS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSING THE REGION MON WILL              
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ATMOS UNSTABLE AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE...SO POPS            
WERE LEFT IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE MON OUTSIDE THE MTNS WHERE LLVL               
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST SW/LY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL             
BEGIN TO STEEPEN.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE AGREEING WELL WITH              
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING TUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED                
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FROPA KEEPING THE              
H5 TROF AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA THROUGH TUE. THE PREFERRED 12Z             
ECMWF WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TIMING GUIDANCE. THE LONG WAVE               
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND USHER IN A             
A NEW AIRMASS WHICH BECOMES MODIFIED FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER THE               
CHANGE IN LLVL THETA/E WILL BE NOTICED. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH            
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND LOWER                   
DEWPOINTS WITH PERSISTENT W TO NW/LY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                
HARD TO COME BY...BUT WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS OVER THE SE REGION             
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY S/LY FLOW FLUCTUATION INCREASING LLVL            
MOISTURE WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS AND PRECIP. FOR        
NOW...THE NEW AIRMASS LOOKS TOO STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE               
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER                      
FEATURE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT LESS THAN SLIGHT.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LIFR CIG RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT KAVL. EARLY VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS A                 
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS...AND THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY                  
QUICKLY. SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS WILL LINGER ACRS THE FOOTHILLS AND                   
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 13 UTC...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD                 
COVER THRU MIDDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE EARLY               
EVENING. ROUGHLY A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURING            
JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR VBSYS EARLY                   
SATURDAY MORNING.                                                               
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS                   
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA MAY INCREASE EACH            
DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOG MAY ALSO              
DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND               
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SBK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CSH/MCAVOY                                                          
SHORT TERM...SBK                                                                
LONG TERM...SBK                                                                 
AVIATION...CSH/MCAVOY                                                           
</pre> sc                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
221 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
...STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SERN CO THIS EVENING...                 
...A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR "WET" THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTN...                   
CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RACING ACROSS NORTHEAST            
AND EAST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSING THE PALMER                 
DIVIDE. THIS WAS A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE THAN WHAT THE 12KM                  
NAM-WRF WAS SUGGESTING...HOWEVER...BY MIDAFTERNOON THE FRONT APPEARS            
TO BE STALLING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE IN THE 70S           
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT                     
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100F ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO.                
SURFACE DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND            
A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT THE 12KM NAM-WRF HAD BEEN FORECASTING.                 
SURFACE-BASED CAPES AND LIFTED INDICES WERE 400-1800 J/KG AND -2C               
TO -4C...RESPECTFULLY. LOCAL RADAR FAIRLY QUIET EARLY THIS                      
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WEAK AT          
BEST...SO ANY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS CAPPING THE CONVECTION              
RELEASE. ALSO...NO PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO                  
ENHANCE THE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. JUST HAVE SOME SHALLOW CU...SO            
FAR...FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY              
AND LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND                
HIGH VALLEYS...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 20S              
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY. VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH CLOUD-BASE CU FORMING OVER THE                   
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THESE AREAS              
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS...                    
"VIRGA-BOMBS"...LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND                 
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.                                  
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL PLAN ON THE COLD FRONT TO             
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL              
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF CO AND PERHAPS MAKE IT PAST THE                  
EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGHER                
SUSTAINABLE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO MAKE IT ACROSS ALL OF THE                     
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE FLOW SHOOTS THROUGH            
THE GAPS AND POSSIBLE SELF-MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS GIVEN WHAT              
LITTLE RAINFALL DOES FALL. NOT SURE WHAT TO DO WITH POPS/WEA GIVEN              
THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE CURRENT                   
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THE MAIN             
THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS THIS             
EVENING WITH HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WIND                 
GUSTS...BRIEF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.              
SURFACE-BASED CAPES AND LIFTED INDICES WILL BE 1K-2K J/KG AND -2C               
TO -6C...RESPECTFULLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF                
SHORTWAVES MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION...BUT HARD PRESSED TO FIND               
ANYTHING IN THE RUC AND SATELLITE.  THERE ARE A COUPLE IN NM...BUT              
THOSE MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN CO. TOUGH CALL ON THE                       
SUSTAINABLE OVERNIGHT MOIST CONVECTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT. 0-6KM MOST            
UNSTABLE(MUCAPES) ARE PROGGED TO 1.5-2.5K J/KG BEHIND THE FRONT...              
BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO TRIGGER TO KEEP THE MOIST CONVECTION                 
GOING...EXCEPT ANY ROGUE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDING TOGETHER OR               
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME WEAK 800-700MB WARM AIR                    
ADVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER...WHICH COULD KEEP A FEW               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME               
VERY LOW POPS IN THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT.                                         
SATURDAY...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY. MODELS                
INSIST ON MOISTENING UP THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS THROUGH TIME.                
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PARKED ACROSS WESTERN CO INTO               
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN               
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ALONG THE I-25               
CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY              
RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 6                    
G/KG...STEERING CURRENTS OF 10KTS OR LESS...AND WET BULB ZERO                   
HEIGHTS OF 13K-15K FT MSL ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH            
VALLEYS. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE HAIL AROUND UP TO             
3/4 INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH NEAR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.                
OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE            
OF DAYS. METZE                                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND DURATION EARLY ON.                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH...WITH               
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS GOOD CHUNK OF OUR CWA. CONVECTION              
ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND                  
PERHAPS PAST 06Z SUNDAY IN THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CAPE VALUES        
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...AND SPC NOT OUTLOOKING OUR CWA FOR                  
SEVERE STORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. 12Z NAM12 HAS HEAVIER RAIN              
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MAIN THREAT FROM              
STORMS BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY              
RAIN. WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES IN MID LEVELS WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO               
STAY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MAINLY 60S AND 70S                     
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.                                                     
MONDAY THROUGH 4TH OF JULY...MODELS FAVOR SEMI-PERMANENT RIDGE TO               
BE OVERHEAD...WITH SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE. THE UPSHOT WILL BE DAILY              
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE              
EXPECTED TO RISE SOME 2 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS FROM WEEKEND                       
VALUES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S                    
PLAINS...70S AND 80S HIGH VALLEYS...AND 60 AND 70S MOUNTAINS.                   
-TLM-                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE            
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AND THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB THIS                     
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                    
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS THROUGH             
06Z/28 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND            
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING              
WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. METZE                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/13                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL                                    
102 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A               
59S RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FL. MSAS/RUC LOCATES SURFACE RIDGE              
AXIS FROM ATLANTIC TO THE GULF...CROSSING CENTRAL FL NEAR TAMPA                 
BAY.                                                                            
TBW 88D HAS A FEW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND IN NORTH LEVY ATTM.                 
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS...BUT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY...COVERS                
MUCH OF THE CWA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...THE 500 HPA RIDGE OVER SOUTH FL                
BUILDS IN SAT BUT THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SUN AS LARGE SCALE                  
TROUGHINESS MOVES IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SOUTH FL RIDGE                   
NUDGES THE U/L LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEST WARD SAT. THIS MAY                
TRIM SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DOWN                
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RESIDES            
ACROSS FL IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPA BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.                      
THE PATTERN OF WET AFTERNOONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                  
A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SOME DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALL PROVIDE STORMS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                 
RANGE. WITH RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH BISECTING THE CWA WITH SE WINDS              
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH AND SW WINDS TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE                    
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY WARM BUT STILL              
COOL AND WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED PARAMETERS WOULD EXPECT SOME                
STORMS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING                
THE MAIN THREATS.                                                               
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL. MAV                 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN TOO LOW WITH POPS AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD              
THE HIGHER MET.                                                                 
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...LOW              
OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTH THEN WILL SHIFT INTO CANADA              
BY MIDWEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER FLORIDA BY THE END OF             
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT.                                               
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY                 
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE                  
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE                    
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR              
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.            
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG             
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND...AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCT +TSRA EXPECTED INTO THIS                   
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS                     
CIGS/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS AT TAF SITES. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF            
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE                
AXIS BISECTING THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATER INTO AT LEAST THE                      
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP SW WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND SW IN THE               
NORTH. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND             
LIGHTNING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH OFFSHORE THE WEST                
COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND BECOME ISOLATED DURING               
THE EVENINGS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT                 
WEEK..                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TPA  77  91  77  92 /  20  60  20  60                                           
FMY  74  92  74  92 /  20  60  20  60                                           
GIF  73  92  74  93 /  20  60  20  60                                           
SRQ  74  90  74  90 /  20  50  20  50                                           
BKV  72  90  71  91 /  20  50  20  50                                           
SPG  80  90  80  90 /  20  50  20  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GULF WATERS...NONE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...RKR                                                         
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CNC/RD                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
326 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM. SEVERAL                
FEATURES OF INTEREST EVIDENT ON AFTERNOON WEATHER MAP.                          
FIRST...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A                
POOL OF 65F TO 75F DEGREE DEWPOINTS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH NE KS. A            
SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR DDC TO NEAR OMA...WITH THE                    
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT JUST BEHIND...FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL            
NE. FINE LINE EVIDENT ON KUEX WSR-88D. WEAK CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED               
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO              
DIG INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LEADING LOBE OF            
ENERGY OVER EASTERN NE...AND NEXT LOBE DIVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA.            
SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY HINGES UPON CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE TROUGH OR THE FROPA FOR INITIATION...ENHANCED BY THE LOBE OF                
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE. MODELS HAD HINTED AT AN             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY KICKED OUT BY MORNING CONVECTION TO LIFT BACK                  
NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN REALIZED PER CURRENT                    
ANALYSIS. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING DEPICTS CAP STILL PRESENT OVER                   
TOP...BUT CAPE CONTINUES TO BUILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE LOW              
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. 19Z RUC DEPICTS AROUND CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000J/KG            
ALONG AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE. LL WINDS LOOK SOMEWHAT UNREPRESENTATIVE            
AS COMPARED TO SITES ACROSS THE CWA--AS MORNING CONVECTION RENDERED             
THE NEAR TOP WIND FIELD SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS. SPEED SHEAR LOOKS A BIT             
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE            
OUT WEST. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL IN               
THE NEAR TERM...TRANSITIONING TO A WIND EVENT TONIGHT...WHEN                    
DISCRETE CELLS...POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS...CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX AND            
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD.                                                             
TOMORROW...SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER MAY LINGER SATURDAY                         
MORNING...BUT EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO CLEAR THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. A            
PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY                  
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.                          
EK                                                                              
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS NEAR              
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTH TO                    
NORTHWEST WITH COOL ADVECTION AND LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGH SUNDAY.              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND REMAIN             
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT RETURN FLOW                  
COMMENCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING                    
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED                 
SMALL CHANCES FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY               
AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS A LITTLE DOWNWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY                  
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY              
MORNINGS.                                                                       
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A LOWERING OF              
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LINGERING ACROSS             
THE REGION THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. MODEL                       
DIFFERENCES ENOUGH TO KEEP JUST SMALL PROBABILITIES. WITH NORTHWEST             
FLOW AND PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MCS`S DEVELOPING DURING               
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR              
THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                            
53                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEVERAL WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LINGER OVER                  
NORTHEAST KANSAS...MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. IN                   
ADDITION...SOMEWHAT STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL              
KANSAS AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL EXACERBATE WIND CHALLENGES.                 
EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING NORTHERLY               
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z-07Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR THE 23Z-07Z TIME FRAME. MAINTAINED VCTS           
DURING THIS TIME...AND INTRODUCED TSRA FROM WEST//MHK// TO EAST//TOP            
AND FOE// WITH FROPA BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z WITH VRB WIND GUSTS TO                 
30MPH AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS.                                                    
EK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT IN FORECAST IS NECESSARY. RUC HAS A NICE                 
HANDLE ON SHORTWAVES THOUGH IT APPEARS OVERDONE FOR CAPE IN SOUNDINGS.          
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KY DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF            
2000 J/KG FROM 925-850 MB LAYER (IN RUC...IN NAM THAT AREA IS SOUTH             
OF KY) AND AIDED BY THKJKLNOWJKLE TAIL END OF A VORT. A WEAKER WAVE IS MOVING   
INTO CENTRAL KY. STRONGER SHORTWAVES OVER MO/IL MIGHT AFFECT AREA               
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE RUC SHOWS SOME DECENT 250 MB DIVERGENCE TO             
AID CONVECTION ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT ITS CONVERGENT              
COUPLET TO HELP END IT BY 28/00Z. ATTM...THINK SCATTERED STORMS ARE             
A GIVEN THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW OF THEM GETTING SEVERE ARE LIKELY.             
DON/T THINK THE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN MUCH FROM            
YESTERDAYS LEVELS.                                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                    
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WANING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                  
PORTION OF THE NATION WHILE A WAVY WARM FRONT IS LAYING ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES RUNNING EAST FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST. EACH DAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN A BIT               
MORE SO THAT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO PUSH              
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS PAST EVENING. WHILE THESE              
INITIAL STORMS HAVE STALLED AND DISSIPATED...THEY LEFT BEHIND A                 
BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ACTIVITY...JUST TO THE                 
NORTHWEST OF JKL. A LARGE FACTOR IN THE ABILITY OF THESE STORMS TO              
SETTLE DEEPER INTO OUR REGION THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IS THE PRESENCE OF A           
WELL DEFINED MCV CURRENTLY CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE SKY                 
COVER MIRRORS THE RADAR IMAGES WITH LOWER AND THICKER CLOUDS OVER THE           
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND MAINLY RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS               
FOUND OVER THE EAST. TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE RUNNING FROM THE            
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 70S ON THE RIDGES WHILE DEWPOINTS           
ARE UP IN THE MIDDLE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.                              
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY              
STRONG...CLOSED UPPER LOW RIDING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER               
MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED FEATURE THEN SPINS INTO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES               
FOR SUNDAY...MAINTAINING IMPRESSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY              
RIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS MATCH UP              
QUITE WELL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS PULL THE           
LOW NORTHEAST A TAD QUICKER THAN THE LATEST NAM. NEVERTHELESS...                
PREFER THE NAM/S ATTEMPT AT FORECASTING THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES...               
SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN                
EVOLUTION. IN GENERAL...THE SPECIFICS OF THE NAM12 WERE FOLLOWED                
THROUGH 84 HOURS.                                                               
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE BUILDUP             
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN A BROAD            
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE UNDERLYING                 
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION...WHILE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE DIURNAL             
CYCLE OF INSTABILITY...WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF              
SFC BOUNDARIES AND PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM MCVS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE              
ATTEMPTED TO DRAW THE POP...AND IN A SIMILAR MANNER SKY...GRIDS BASED           
ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE           
FROM THE NAM12 AND A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT. THIS MUDDLED FORECAST            
SITUATION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON SATURDAY WHEN A           
WELL MODELED COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING INTO AND CROSSING THE AREA             
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE THE UPPER SUPPORT OF A              
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CLOSE                 
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ALREADY QUITE MOIST           
AIR COLUMN OVER THE REGION...THE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL YIELD THE BEST             
SHOT FOR ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE MAIN              
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. IN                   
ADDITION...THE STORMS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EFFICIENT              
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE           
RAINFALL...HOWEVER THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS LESS OF A           
CONCERN THAN NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WHAT IS NORMAL IN THE GOING ON TWO               
YEARS OF DROUGHT OR NEAR DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA. INTERPRETING THE              
PREFERRED NAM SOLUTION FOR SFC FEATURES AND RESULTING WX...WILL BRING           
THE COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY CLEAR             
THE POPS OUT WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...THOUGH HELD THEM RELATIVELY               
STEADY FOR A TIME AT PEAK HEATING AND DURING A TIME OF INCREASING               
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER              
LOW CENTER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTINUING           
INTO MONDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.                 
DESPITE PREFERRING THE MET/S PARENT MODEL...ACTUALLY SAW THE MAV                
TEMPERATURE NUMBERS AS MORE REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR              
POPS DID END UP CLOSEST TO THE MET ONES.                                        
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                          
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS SREF/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS AGREE             
FAIRLY WELL REGARDING THE UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE (FOR JULY) AND               
POSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN U.S. LATE                 
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN BUILDING THE RIDGE AGAIN. HPC GUIDANCE WAS                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA AND HELD ON TO IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN                   
SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THAT SHORTWAVE DOWN AND WE MAY BE HOLDING                
ONTO AND/OR EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON (MEX SHOWS CATEGORICAL               
POPS ON SUN). BY WED THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS            
AND A RETURN TO HOT/HUMID IS LIKELY BY THEN.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS NEAR TAF SITES NEXT               
SEVERAL HOURS RESULTING FROM A SLOWLY MOVING SHORTWAVE. THESE STORMS            
ARE TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN THE SHORTWAVE AND WILL EXPECT NEW                  
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE CURRENT ONES FOR A FEW HOURS. THINK THEY WILL            
BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL              
AND STRONG GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND WILL UPDATE IF THEY              
APPEAR LIKELY TO MORE DIRECTLY AFFECT AN AIRPORT.                               
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF/GV                                                           
LONG TERM....GV                                                                 
AVIATION...GV                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE                    
U.S....AND TROUGHING DIGGING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...FEATURES TO NOTE ARE A SHRTWV             
FROM DLH INTO SW WI...A STRONGER SHRTWV OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND            
AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH SHRTWVS ARE PRODUCING               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ONE              
GETTING A LITTLE MORE BOOST FROM MORE DAYTIME HEATING THAT OCCURRED             
IN MN...COMPARED TO WI AND UPPER MI WHICH HAD SOME HIGH CLOUD TO                
DEAL WITH. A SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MN DOWNSTREAM              
OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHRTWV. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SHRTWV BUT             
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IS OCCURING IN NORTH             
DAKOTA...NOTED BY DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. ON THE               
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE CAN BE SEEN IN                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS            
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH IT IS GETTING HARD TO SEE WITH                    
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SHIPS ARE STILL REPORTING IT...AND A FEW                
EARLIER TODAY HAD DENSE FOG.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
FIRST SHRTWV MOVING NE OUT OF WI WILL CROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN             
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...SHOWERS WITH A FEW                
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DPVA HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP                
OVER THE CWA. IN FACT...MODIFYING THE 1740Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW            
FOR THE OBSERVATION AT IMT YIELDED 600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH NO CIN FROM            
THE SURFACE TO 470 MB. A BREAK IN THE PCPN MAY OCCUR AFTER THIS                 
SHRTWV AND THE NEXT SHRTWV OVER THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS...THOUGH                
THIS HAS NOT BEEN DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
DEVELOPING OVER MN AHEAD OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHRTWV MAY CONGEAL              
INTO AN MCS...AND THEN GET FORCED EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPPER            
MI AS THE UPPER LOW IN SE SASKATCHEWAN DIGS INTO NORTH DAKOTA.                  
RAISED POPS TO 80 AS THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE                
NAM...GFS AND UKMET. SVR WX POTENTIAL IS MARGINAL WITH 0-6KM BULK               
SHEAR AT 25-30KT...BUT WITH A STRONG SHRTWV MOVING IN...WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO STORMS TRY TO GO SEVERE. EVEN WITH                  
CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN U.P....ONE STORM ALMOST BECAME                  
SEVERE. LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL END SW TO NE OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT             
WORKING IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS DRYING ALOFT                 
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG               
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AS A RESULT.               
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                   
DEWPOINTS.                                                                      
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO UPPER MI ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH COLD MID-LEVEL              
TEMPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW (500MB READINGS AROUND -16              
TO -17C)...AM VERY CONCERNED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW A               
DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ACCCOMPANYING THE COLD TEMPS. THIS IS                  
ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHERE IF MIXING UP            
TO 850MB OCCURS...DEWPOINTS DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S (ANY HIGHER             
MIXING HEIGHTS RESULTS IN EVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS). THEREFORE ADJUSTED             
THE POPS DOWN TO 40 FOR THIS AREA. IN THE EASTERN U.P....IT APPEARS             
THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS QUICK TO ERODE WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY                
STAYING UP AROUND 60F. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING             
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES PERHAPS UP NEAR               
1000J/KG. FORCING APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING INTO                  
ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND A LAKE BREEZE COMING OFF              
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE                  
AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN U.P.. THE UPPER LOW MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH               
SOUTH BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO HAVE SOME DEFORMATION PCPN TO                 
CROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN U.P....AND                 
THEREFORE HAVE POPS OF 50-60 IN THIS AREA. GOING FORECAST HIGH TEMPS            
LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF 10-11C.                                    
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)...                                      
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY ARE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                     
THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK SATURDAY             
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DETERMINING                
POPS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER                   
WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE UPPER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AT              
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NAM SOLN MAY BE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW             
GIVEN THE GFS GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CAUSES THE GFS TO             
KEY ON THE NEWLY DEVELOPED WAVE RATHER THAN KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY             
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE SHORT             
TERM FORECASTER DISCUSSED...MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER                
RELATIVELY DRY AIR SAT AFTN AND EVENING BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES              
THROUGH SAT AFTN. MAY BE SOME LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS EARLY...                
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW MOVES E-NE SAT NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE                
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADNL               
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING               
THRU THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING AND            
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVE INTO QUEBEC.              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P.             
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER                    
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND LATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN               
UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                                 
DRYING MOVES IN RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A                 
BRISK N-NE WINDS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ON SATURDAY WITH THIS NORTH               
WIND AND MOST PLACES WILL NOT RISE OUT OF THE 60S ON SUNDAY. IN                 
FACT...MANY PLACES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT SEE TEMPS OUT OF THE             
50S. DESPITE THE COLD AIR ALOFT...DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT A            
MINIMUM GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. MAY SEE A FEW AFTN STORMS...BUT              
THEY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.             
WILL THEREFORE TAPER POPS FROM 30 ACROSS THE WEST TO 50 ACROSS THE              
EAST. THE NAM ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE INTO                  
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY HELPING TO ENHANCE             
ANY PCPN.                                                                       
WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE              
TO BE COOL WITH N-NW BOUNDARY WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.            
SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME FROM             
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...BUT CONTINUED COOLER NEAR              
THE LAKE.                                                                       
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY DAY 4 THEN DRAMATCIALLY             
BY DAYS 5-7 REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MAIN WAVE                  
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IN DAYS 5 AND 6. THE             
00Z ECMWF IS 12-24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS IN MOVING THE                  
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN (ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS            
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN). THE GLOBAL GEM HAS ALSO                   
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN BRINING             
PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AFTN...HOWEVER WILL SPEED UP THE TIMING             
OF PCPN AND INTRODUCE IT INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH            
CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF THU. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE               
FRONT TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES BY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS            
WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WOULD              
SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION DOWN AND PERHAPS KEEP PCPN NEARBY                
THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL OPT TO KEEP IT DRY THU/FRI.                         
NONETHELESS...THE GFS SUGGESTS STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING INTO LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN (AND THE SFC FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH) ON             
FRIDAY TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN FOR NOW.                              
TEMPS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE            
FOR TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL BE ON WED AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. WITH                
850MB TEMPS ONLY 10-12CFLOW THU AND FRI...TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER            
70S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY               
FOR THOSE PERIODS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTIPLE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. VISIBLE                     
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING AND SHIP OBS INDICATE EXTENSIVE FOG               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME DENSE WITH VSBY AROUND 1/8SM. ALTHOUGH              
WINDS HAVE BEEN EASTERLY AT CMX...WHICH WOULD TEND TO BRING THE FOG             
UP INTO THE KEWEENAW...DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED THIS.            
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AND DIURNAL COOLING THIS             
EVENING...THINK SOME BR AND MVFR CIG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS                   
AFTN/EVNG. ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS               
ARE MOVING NE FROM NE WI...WHICH WOULD CROSS CMX LATE THIS AFTN. VFR            
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SAW FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN...THOUGH A                 
SHOWER OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN AS               
WELL.                                                                           
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSRA DEVELOPING OVER NRN MN AND IN ERN                
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD MERGE TOGETHER AND EXPAND INTO UPPER MI THIS                
EVENING...DUE TO TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING FOG/STRATUS              
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD CIGS/VIS AT CMX AT MVFR OR IFR. MVFR                
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT SAW WITH THE PCPN BEING THE MAIN FACTOR                    
BRINGING DOWN THE CIGS/VIS. DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS            
FORECAST TO INCLUDE TS OR VCTS. DRYING ALOFT WORKS IN LATE TONIGHT              
AT BOTH TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIFR/IFR VIS AND                
LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...THANKS TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM              
PCPN. WEST WINDS AT CMX WILL HOLD THESE LOW CIGS AND VIS IN AT CMX              
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH            
DAYTIME HEATING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED EVEN MORE AT SAW SINCE THE                
WIND DOWNSLOPES...AND HAVE VIS/CIG RISING TO VFR BY 15Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE MN WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
TONIGHT...THEN MERGE WITH ANOTEHR LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST OUT             
OF SE MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. E/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25                
KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH             
TO BELOW 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE                  
MERGED SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY                
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS MAY                    
APPROACH 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY               
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MONDAY              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE                
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
147 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A FEW SHRTWVS             
OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM...BOTH PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN...WITH THE KDLH                 
RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED -TSRA TO THE WEST AND NW OF DULUTH. THE               
SECOND IS BACK IN THE DAKOTAS...WITH ACTUALLY A LARGE AREA OF                   
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA BETWEEN PIERRE AND ABERDEEN. UPPER MI                 
CURRENTLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...BEING BUILT UP AHEAD OF THE MN            
SHRTWV AND THE STRONGER UPPER LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN.             
THIS UPPER RIDGING IS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE              
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE HIGH CLOUDS              
ARE ENCROACHING. 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAW AND 12Z RAOB FROM GRB             
DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP AROUND 750MB.            
DRY AIR EVIDENT AS WELL BOTH AT AND BELOW THIS INVERSION...WITH THE             
GRB SOUNDING SHOWING 925MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 8C. OTHER ITEM TO             
NOTE IS THE PERSISTENT FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SHIP OB JUST CAME IN             
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS AND SHOWED 1/8SM VSBY.                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON TRYING TO FORECAST TSRA                       
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWING CAPPING AND DRY                  
AIR...AND THE FACT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL MUCH TODAY (LIKELY            
INDICATING CAPPING TO STAY IN PLACE)...THINKING IS AT LEAST THE                 
CENTRAL U.P. WILL NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PCPN BEFORE 00Z. THE 12Z RUC              
AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT...WITH SOUNDINGS AT IMT...MQT AND ERY               
CAPPED WITH TOO MUCH CIN TO OVERCOME (AIDED BY DAYTIME MIXING                   
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE). THE ONLY PLACE THAT LOOKS GOOD              
FOR PCPN TO FORM IS IN THE WESTERN U.P....ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS              
THIN OUT SOME WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING IN THE LATEST VISIBLE               
SATELLITE IMAGES. AIRMASS THERE IS A BIT MORE MOIST OVERALL...WHICH             
SHOULD HOLD THE DEWPOINTS UP. WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE MID TO                
PERHAPS UPPER 70S...AND HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING LATER IN THE DAY               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV (HELPING TO ELIMINATE CAPPING)...                 
MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...FOR THIS                
AFTN...MAINTAINED 70 POPS OUT IN THE WEST...AND LOWERED TO 20 IN THE            
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. SVR WX POTENTIAL NOT TOO GREAT...GIVEN 0-6KM            
SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KNOTS.                                                    
REGARDING THE FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...ADJUSTED IT A BIT BASED ON WIND            
DIRECTION FORECASTS...WHICH SEEM TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF               
THE KEWEENAW BEING IMPACTED WITH EAST WINDS PICKING UP.                         
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE SHORES BASED ON WIND                          
DIRECTIONS...WITH THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SITE ON THE EAST SIDE OF               
THE KEWEENAW REPORTING 57...BIG BAY AT 61 AND GRAND MARAIS AT 54.               
ALL THREE SITES SHOULD SEE ONSHORE WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE                  
DAY...THUS LOWERED HIGHS AT ALL THREE AREAS.                                    
WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS AFTER 00Z TO DELAY PCPN MOVING INTO THE                
EASTERN U.P.. STILL THINK THE 70 POPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...WITH              
THE NEXT SHRTWV IN THE DAKOTAS MOVING INTO THE CWA...ALONG WITH ITS             
ASSOCIATED SHRA AND TSRA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
KIND OF A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. STRONGEST FEATURE OF              
NOTE IS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS ALBERTA AND WESTERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN WHICH SHOWS UP AS STRONG DARKENING AND STRONG CYCLONIC             
ROTATION ON WATER VAPOR. THERE ARE NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT                
WERE EITHER CAUSING CONVECTION OR WERE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED ACROSS              
THE PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                                               
THE NAM TAKES THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIGS IT                
SOUTHEAST AND FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WITH IT ACROSS THE CANADIAN             
PRAIRIES WITH THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z SAT. THE NAM              
THEN BRINGS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW INTO THE WESTERN U.P. 00Z SUN AND             
THEN SLOWLY MOVES IT EAST TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE 00Z MON AND THEN              
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BUILDS A STRONG 500 MB                
RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST HALF WITH PLENTY OF                  
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT. NAM THEN SHOWS A DRY SLOT            
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SAT WITH DYNAMICS DEPARTING AS WELL AS THE              
CLOSED 500 MB LOW COMES INTO THE AREA. NAM THEN BRINGS BACK IN                  
MOISTURE WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN               
WITH THE MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE OUT ON MON. NAM SHOWING SOME                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I300K-I315K SURFACES WITH MOISTURE TONIGHT AND               
THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT WITH LIFT MOVING OUT ON SAT. GFS IS SIMILAR              
TO THE NAM AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST.                   
WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE              
IN TIMING IS PRETTY LOW ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WILL             
HAVE LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS                  
MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH MOISTURE. HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH              
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DRY SLOT SATURDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND ADDED INTO THE FORECAST WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS             
THE AREA. ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN ANY CONVECTION THAT                 
FORMS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT               
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA              
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT AT             
THE SFC EVEN WITH SOME MIXING. OVERALL...GOING FORECAST WAS GOOD AND            
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES. FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH             
TONIGHT AT LEAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTIPLE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. VISIBLE                     
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING AND SHIP OBS INDICATE EXTENSIVE FOG               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME DENSE WITH VSBY AROUND 1/8SM. ALTHOUGH              
WINDS HAVE BEEN EASTERLY AT CMX...WHICH WOULD TEND TO BRING THE FOG             
UP INTO THE KEWEENAW...DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED THIS.            
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD AND DIURNAL COOLING THIS             
EVENING...THINK SOME BR AND MVFR CIG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS                   
AFTN/EVNG. ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS               
ARE MOVING NE FROM NE WI...WHICH WOULD CROSS CMX LATE THIS AFTN. VFR            
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SAW FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN...THOUGH A                 
SHOWER OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN AS               
WELL.                                                                           
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSRA DEVELOPING OVER NRN MN AND IN ERN                
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD MERGE TOGETHER AND EXPAND INTO UPPER MI THIS                
EVENING...DUE TO TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING FOG/STRATUS              
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HOLD CIGS/VIS AT CMX AT MVFR OR IFR. MVFR                
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AT SAW WITH THE PCPN BEING THE MAIN FACTOR                    
BRINGING DOWN THE CIGS/VIS. DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS            
FORECAST TO INCLUDE TS OR VCTS. DRYING ALOFT WORKS IN LATE TONIGHT              
AT BOTH TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIFR/IFR VIS AND                
LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...THANKS TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM              
PCPN. WEST WINDS AT CMX WILL HOLD THESE LOW CIGS AND VIS IN AT CMX              
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH            
DAYTIME HEATING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED EVEN MORE AT SAW SINCE THE                
WIND DOWNSLOPES...AND HAVE VIS/CIG RISING TO VFR BY 15Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN            
20 KNOTS. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO LAKE                    
SUPERIOR ON TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN              
CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OVER                   
CENTRAL AND EAST EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE              
LOW FILLING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN                
CAUSING THE WINDS TO BE LESS AN 20 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...AJ                                                            
DISCUSSION...GM                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
224 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESSY SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE                 
WAVE THAT WAS OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING HAS PROGRESSED                  
INTO SW WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A TROF STRETCHES SW FROM THE LOW               
ACROSS CENTRAL IA...WHICH HAS TURNED THE FLOW TO THE WEST. ANOTHER              
TROF EXTENDS N-S THROUGH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CONVECTION                 
HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF MN NEAR THIS                  
AXIS WHERE HEATING WAS MAXIMIZED. SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH                 
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE 0-1KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES              
ARE 15 AND 30 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. VERY LITTLE SHEAR ACROSS OUR MN               
CWA ATTM. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE RUC TO INCREASE ACROSS                
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO VALUES SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TO OUR              
NORTH. 0-3KM CAPE IS ALSO ABOVE 100 J/KG TO OUR NORTH ATTM AND                  
THIS TOO IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST                  
CENTRAL WI. HENCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING               
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620 IN EFFECT               
UNTIL 8 PM.                                                                     
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM FAR NORTHWEST               
MN THROUGH EASTERN SD AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...              
BRINING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. A DEEP UPPER LOW               
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE OVER THE                 
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY. 12HR 400MB HEIGHT FALLS VALID SATURDAY                  
MORNING ARE 180M OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH A HUGE INCREASE IN PV.                 
LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR TOMORROW ALONG WITH ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE               
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. 15Z SREF POPS POINTING TO IMPROVING                 
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER FAR              
EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH               
TUESDAY. GREAT COLLABORATION TODAY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ON THE              
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF                   
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY              
WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV WILL CONTINUE PIVOTING                     
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NEW /AND MORE              
ORGANIZED/ TS/SHRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD                
FRONT AS IT PUSHES FROM WESTERN MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI. SHOWERS                  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAXN/KRWF EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU DURING THE               
MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR                  
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH/FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY               
WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG CLOSED                      
MID/UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. CU                       
DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/LS                                                                          
</pre> mn