FXUS04 KWBC 131832
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 14/0000 UTC THRU MAY 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
THE FORMATION TODAY OF A MAJOR MCS OVR ERN TX IS PUTTING A LOT
OF DOUBT INTO THE FCST.    THE MESOSCALE FORCING FM IT HAS
CREATED IS OWN MID LVL CIRC PER LATEST STLT AND RADAR INFO.  
BASICALLY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES IS AN UNKNOWN.   ADDITIONALLY...THE ETA
AND GFS HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH MASS FIELD AND QPF
DETAILS WITH THE GFS INDCTG NUMEROUS VORTICITY/VERT VEL/PCPN
BLOWUPS.    PREFERRED TO USE THE ETA DETAILS FOR PLACEMENT GIVEN
THE UNKNOWN EXTENT TO WHICH THESE FEEDBACK CENTERS ARE
AFFECTING THE GFS SYNOPTIC FCST DETAILS. 
...FRONTAL BAND FM THE GREAT LAKES SWD THRU THE CNTRL U.S...
THIS BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SGFNT CNVCTV RAINS
THRU THE FCST PD.   HGT FALLS ASOCTD WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROF
WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS INVOF THIS BNDRY WHICH WILL BE CO-
LOCATED UNDER AN EXTREMELY FVBL DIV ALOFT ASOCTD WITH RT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.   PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING NWD
ALONG THE BNDRY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CNVCTV RAINS OVR
LOCALIZED AREAS.   MOST SGFNT RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN GNRL AGREEMENT.   HOWEVER...THE
SITUATION HERE IS COMPLICATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX
OVR ERN TX.   TO WHAT EXTENT THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND MSTR AVBLTY TO ITS NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE
FRONT IS PROBLEMATIC.
...CONCERNING THE ERN TX MCS COMPLEX...
FOR NOW EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO WORK SLOWLY NWD AND EWD AND
WEAKEN WITH TIME.   SUSPECT THAT THE LWR MS VLY COULD SEE CONTG
LCLY HVY RAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM TNGT WITH THE GFS BEING TOTALLY
OPPOSITE CONCERNING WHAT WILL HAPPEN.   FOR NOW TOOK A
COMPROMISE APCH ON THE SYSTEMS EVOLUTION WITH THE GFS LOOKING
AWFULLY FEEDBACKISH WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE ETA  MISSED THE
FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY.
...SRN AND CNTRL APLCNS AND VICINITY...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT AND CONTG HI MSTR AVBLTY WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN  AFTN AND EVNG SHWRS ACROSS THIS REGION THAT WILL
HAVE A STG DIURNAL PREFERENCE.
KORTY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 508692 505685 501678 496668 492664 487656 482648 472639 
      466633 459630 454632 450634 446637 441643 439647 439651 
      442661 446670 447675 449685 449692 448700 447706 443714 
      436720 430726 426728 422729 417727 414724 412726 414730 
      416734 416737 410744 403754 394766 387774 382780 377784 
      365795 347813 342818 335823 329823 323822 318821 312821 
      305825 302828 298834 295840 294846 297851 302854 308856 
      317863 311865 305864 299866 293870 286877 279885 273896 
      271902 270909 271915 274920 282927 282932 280939 278945 
      272949 267951 261953 250956 245959 242965 244972 248977 
      256988 261998 264002 268005 276005 280003 280012 283016 
      286015 291018 297018 302016 307013 314010 322009 329007 
      335004 339003 343001 347998 354988 370972 381966 385966 
      391970 397973 402972 405970 409964 412958 415944 415936 
      417928 421922 427919 434919 439920 445922 448924 450927 
      456932 461934 465936 469934 481926 486919 490910 495895 
      497886 498877 498869 497857 495845 491832 491826 492823 
      495815 502783 506767 509746 510732 511719 511711 510704 
      508692 
 0.01 518258 519254 519250 516244 515233 507223 503213 500209 
      495205 487199 483200 484205 491213 493221 492227 494231 
      498236 502240 505240 506244 507249 509255 511259 514261 
      518258 
 0.01 510184 511179 512173 513161 510154 506149 499148 495142 
      492135 486131 475125 471130 470135 471139 475142 483144 
      487150 491154 492157 489159 484161 482165 481169 481173 
      482178 484180 487182 491182 499182 506184 510184 
 0.01 459156 457152 453148 451144 445143 442141 439138 436140 
      436144 436148 438153 443158 446161 448167 449171 451176 
      453178 455176 455168 457160 459156 
 0.01 425060 424056 418054 413055 407054 398050 392050 390053 
      390057 389061 384062 378062 374065 371068 372072 381077 
      389075 401072 410070 418066 423064 425060 
 0.25 484691 481679 477667 471657 467651 464648 460648 458653 
      458659 460668 461676 464688 468700 472711 475714 478716 
      481716 485711 486704 484692 484691 
 0.25 472846 470841 467837 465831 466817 465808 461804 458797 
      455794 452793 445793 426799 419800 410803 400805 398804 
      398800 401796 403792 405788 412780 416775 415773 412773 
      409775 405779 400781 396785 390791 375804 365812 357817 
      349823 343830 339837 337840 337845 340858 342865 343872 
      343877 342882 337890 330896 325896 321896 318892 316889 
      313885 310883 304884 299888 292893 286900 285904 286909 
      293913 294916 293919 290926 288933 285942 282951 281957 
      278960 273965 267966 263969 262972 264978 268981 271983 
      276984 281983 285984 288987 290991 291998 290001 291006 
      296008 307006 313003 323000 330997 337992 343985 349978 
      354970 364955 369949 375942 389931 396923 401916 405908 
      412898 422886 430879 441872 446870 452871 459878 460886 
      462890 465891 468889 470885 472846 
 0.25 402823 402822 399823 396824 395826 396829 398830 398828 
      399825 402823 402823 
 0.25 397833 395832 393834 392834 393835 395834 397833 
 0.50 452815 450810 444806 438806 430811 423817 419822 412834 
      404844 395853 389857 384861 376865 370866 363866 360867 
      357870 352882 345893 337903 323906 315908 308912 299918 
      294923 291929 289940 288948 285952 284959 283967 286974 
      289979 294989 294999 294002 297005 303003 316999 323998 
      328995 333991 338987 346977 352966 357956 364944 371935 
      381925 391915 400906 409895 416885 418878 419870 423864 
      428859 433854 438847 444835 451824 453818 452815 
 0.50 366830 366827 363826 361827 358829 356831 355831 355835 
      354837 354839 355841 357841 358841 359840 361839 363836 
      364835 365833 366830 
 1.00 429835 428832 426835 425836 426837 429835 429835 
 1.00 355921 355916 354912 353907 350906 341909 336912 330917 
      323921 309920 301922 296927 293932 293936 294941 299941 
      304936 309932 316929 319931 317939 315944 310950 306953 
      298954 292953 288958 288967 291974 298989 299994 301998 
      304998 318996 326994 331990 340980 347968 349961 345958 
      344954 344950 346943 352929 355921 
 1.00 321962 320962 318962 315964 313966 311967 313969 316968 
      318968 320966 321964 321962 
 1.50 342928 341923 335923 330926 327930 318946 314952 311955 
      306958 301959 295957 292961 294972 297981 302988 304994 
      307995 318993 323992 326991 334984 339977 344970 344967 
      341965 338960 338953 339949 338947 336947 335946 337940 
      341931 342928 
 1.50 333950 333948 330950 327951 322954 319956 314958 311961 
      309965 306968 308972 311974 316975 319973 324970 327966 
      329962 331958 332954 333950 
 1.50 308925 307925 304925 301926 299928 296930 296931 295935 
      297937 300935 301933 302932 305930 306929 307928 308925 
 2.00 334936 336933 333931 330932 329934 328935 327938 326940 
      326942 325945 327945 329943 332940 334937 334936 
 2.00 337973 338970 335969 333970 332971 332974 331978 334978 
      334977 336976 337973 
 2.00 306978 307975 305973 304972 302970 299972 299973 298976 
      299979 300980 302982 303983 304982 306979 306978  
 
$$