FXUS04 KWBC 091850
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 PM EDT SUN MAY 09 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 10/0000 UTC THRU MAY 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

...GTLKS WSWWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS...

SHLD BE AN ACTIVE PD HERE CNVCTN-WISE..AND ESP IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS..AS CDFNT DROPS SEWD INTO THE REGION..TRIGGERING WHAT
SHLD BE ORGANIZED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.    CNVCTN IN THE UPR
MS VLY/NWRN GTLKS WL BE AIDED BY DECENT HGT FALLS AND RT
ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS ASSOCTD WITH MID/UPR LVL TROF
MOVG SEWD THRU SCNTRL CANADA..WHILE FARTHER S IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND PTNS OF THE MIDWEST..STRENGTHENING LLJ..POOLING OF HI
PWS AND STG LOW LVL CNVGNC WL SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY.  PREFER
THE HVIER GFS QPF IN THE CNTRL PLAINS..GIVEN STG LLJ AND HI
PWS..AND ESP SINCE THE ETA HAS A BIAS OF UNDERFCSTG THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RNFL AMTS.    FARTHER TO THE N AND E IN THE ERN
GTLKS..WKR LOW LVL CNVGNC ALG THE FNT AND A BIT LESS MSTR SHLD
KEEP RNFL AMTS GENLY IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..IN LN WITH THE
MDL
QPFS.


...ERN GTLKS INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...

WRMFNT STILL XPCD TO BE CNVCTVLY ACTIVE THIS AREA..WITH CNVCTN
ENHANCED BY WK S/WVS MOVG ALG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS AND
AIDED BY A MODEST 25-30KTS OF WSWLY LLJ.   MDL QPFS WERE ACTUALLY
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT HERE AND XPC A SWATH OF GTR THAN
0.50 INCH RAINS FM ERN MI EWD INTO NY STATE AND THEN SEWD INTO
ERN PA/NJ.


...OR/NWRN CA INTO ID...

THE MDLS ARE ALSO IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..AT LEAST MASS
FIELD-WISE..IN FINALLY KICKING THE ERN PAC VORTEX INLAND INTO THE
NRN GT BASIN BY THE END OF THIS PD..COURTESY OF THE STG SYS 
DROPPING SSEWD ALG THE B.C. CST.    ALTHO IT WL BE OPENING UP AND
WKNG SOME WITH TIME..SYS WL HAVE PLENTY OF HGT FALLS/MID LVL
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN FM NWRN CA
AND SRN OR INTO WRN ID.   DIDN'T DEVIATE FM THE MDLS HERE..SINCE
THEIR QPFS WERE ALSO QUITE AGREEABLE.


XPC ANOTHER AFTN OF SOME CNVCTN IN THE CNTRL/SRN APLCHNS ON
MON IN WHAT SHLD STILL BE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AMS THERE..WITH
THE POTNL FOR SLO MOVG CELLS DUMPING SOME HVY RAINS IN ISOLD
SPOTS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 463948 485929 500916 510902 514884 510860 503839 503821 
      512805 524775 524756 516730 505714 493700 484694 459681 
      449689 445698 440710 434720 420723 411721 401718 390717 
      380721 376731 376738 380748 388758 400782 406792 410806 
      415822 418839 420863 416873 414875 408878 399875 398871 
      398867 397855 392841 389824 390812 391803 390795 388793 
      386793 378796 373795 368791 364791 360794 358797 353807 
      349816 344825 335839 327845 331851 333853 334859 332867 
      330870 329873 330877 333879 335881 336884 335893 331903 
      330907 332910 335913 342917 347919 353918 368914 377911 
      386907 392906 394912 390920 386928 378948 368971 367982 
      366994 363003 356009 344014 326014 315009 312001 309986 
      308970 310952 311937 315926 315912 311899 304887 298880 
      281869 273871 271881 274890 277900 282914 282919 283932 
      283942 282947 281950 279953 275957 267962 258967 255971 
      253976 253985 257994 261001 267010 285037 290044 295048 
      313054 334058 342058 350056 353052 354044 355041 360037 
      368032 373028 379025 386024 391031 394033 399032 405034 
      407038 418053 423055 426055 430052 435048 437044 437040 
      438035 439008 439994 441982 444971 448962 458952 463948 
 0.01 536211 538201 539190 538182 536176 530164 523151 516143 
      506137 501135 498134 495136 492153 491162 491166 493169 
      493177 491189 489193 486197 481202 477204 468209 466215 
      466219 468222 470223 475222 486228 489229 491233 493239 
      497244 501250 507249 511247 516248 520244 523236 525231 
      526225 528221 532219 536211 
 0.01 471145 473140 474134 475121 473116 468117 465119 462123 
      458130 454135 445146 440154 416182 400205 393217 392226 
      391236 393243 396247 401250 410255 419255 433251 447235 
      448232 449226 449217 448206 448196 450189 454182 463165 
      464161 468156 471145 
 0.01 454114 454105 453099 450094 447092 443092 438096 436100 
      434104 433108 435110 438112 443116 446118 451117 454114 
 0.25 507769 506762 501759 499760 495763 488772 482782 477793 
      465804 462808 458808 454806 451803 448797 448792 447780 
      443763 436752 424739 411732 395732 391734 392740 394752 
      406771 413782 417790 419798 421812 422824 422830 424838 
      431848 436860 437868 437874 438878 440879 443875 450864 
      452861 454861 455864 451874 443894 438904 432912 431907 
      432903 437890 437881 429885 420891 413898 407907 402916 
      392935 382951 379960 378965 377972 378980 380985 384986 
      388982 391978 394983 398997 401005 403010 406014 414018 
      418018 423017 425013 427006 430992 432981 437969 440961 
      445952 458935 471921 480910 490889 493872 490858 483845 
      480830 481818 496791 503783 507775 507769 
 0.25 528203 530197 530189 527179 525172 519164 514158 510159 
      508165 504172 504178 507188 511195 516202 520205 524206 
      528203 
 0.25 452172 452166 448164 442171 430183 422199 419201 416205 
      412215 407237 411242 418244 426243 434237 438231 440227 
      441219 431204 430200 431199 437193 443186 448179 452172 
 0.25 365816 363814 360815 357819 354823 351827 350831 348836 
      349839 352840 354838 357834 359829 362825 364820 365816 
 0.25 372895 369890 366886 363886 359888 355892 354897 351900 
      350905 355907 358907 363905 366903 370899 372895 
 0.25 298905 298898 295893 293890 288888 285887 282886 280890 
      280892 283896 285902 287904 290907 294909 297908 298905 
 0.50 453926 469910 476900 479890 481877 478862 471862 465871 
      453898 449905 444914 432932 427940 420950 412960 407965 
      405963 405958 407950 407938 404935 400937 395942 384956 
      382968 384971 388971 391969 396969 402975 404979 404984 
      406004 410008 414011 419010 422007 425998 428987 434964 
      437953 441944 447933 453926 
 0.50 436825 439803 438786 434774 431764 425754 414740 408740 
      405743 399743 398743 398748 398753 400758 406763 409765 
      412768 418774 423783 425789 427795 425807 424815 424821 
      426828 428833 430835 433835 435832 436825 
 0.50 437226 436220 434217 430211 426209 423210 422217 418224 
      417228 418232 422235 426235 431233 435229 437226 
 1.00 419994 426970 427962 423960 419966 416972 411990 412993 
      413994 419994  
 
$$