AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
330 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BAROMETRICALLY DRIVEN                 
CHINOOK WINDS IN AND NEAR THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS HAVE            
CONTINUED TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF             
BOULDER. HAVE SEEN ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE CROSS MTN PRESSURE             
GRADIENT SINCE 07Z. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE            
OF A WELL DVLPD LEE SIDE MTN WAVE...NOW MARKED BY A GROWING ACSL                
CLOUD...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A                  
CONTINUATION OF THESE GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNSLOPE WINDS PRETTY MUCH             
IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. BY LATE MORNING...MODELS SHOW             
THE CROSS MTN P.G. WEAKENING AND THE AMPLITUDE THE MTN WAVE                     
DECREASING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE TAKING WITH IT A               
PRETTY THICK WAVE CLOUD. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE CLEARING ALONG THE                
FRONT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM             
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE DENVER            
AREA AND COLDEST TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH            
PLATTE...CENTERED ALONG A GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN AXIS. COULD SEE AS             
MUCH AS A 25 DEG F DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO LOCALES.             
PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTED A SIMILAR ARRANGEMENT. IN THE HIGH                   
COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER AS POCKETS OF MID-                
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ALONG BY 45-60KT KT WLY FLOW ALOFT PASS OVER               
THE AREA. MAY SEE A FEW -SHSN UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                
BUT LITTLE IF ANY NEW ACCUMULATION AS MTN TOP STATIC STABILITY ONLY             
INCREASES THRU THE DAY.                                                         
BY TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID/HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING            
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOW TRACKING EWRD             
ACROSS ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REACH SWRN                  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH               
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL HAVE                      
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN TO THE HIGH MTN ZONES LATE                    
TONIGHT. ON THE PLAINS...THINGS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE              
NAM SHOWS A SHALLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH THE ONSET OF WEAK                    
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS            
OF STRATUS AND PSBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER            
TOWARDS DAWN.                                                                   
.LONG TERM....THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS GENERALLY ON TRACK TO EFFECT             
BOU CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION              
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUE TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES              
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH EVEN THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT FASTER            
AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM SOLUTION. INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE EXPECTED            
MIDDAY MONDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND NORTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE             
LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRECIP WILL BE             
DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF TIME OF RAIN/SNOW            
MIX DURING THE AFTN BEFORE THE BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN.                
SECONDARY SURGE WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AS SFC              
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE DEEPENS MON EVENING TO             
AROUND 600MB WITH MODEST ASCENT FROM VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. BEST             
ASCENT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA.                               
SO AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE...WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE POPS                 
UPWARDS INTO HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTN AS THE                
TIMING AS QUICKENED A BIT SINCE EARLIER RUNS. EVENTUAL ADVISORY                 
HILITES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE MAIN AREA OF                   
CONCERN WILL HAVE TO WATCH WILL BE THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE                     
FOOTHILLS AND ADJ PALMER DIVIDE. LOCAL SNOW MODEL YIELDED ADVISORY              
TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE FOOTHILLS. NO HILITES AT THIS TIME.                   
THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK AND THRU NEXT                
WEEKEND AS A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY            
HANDLED IN THE GRIDS SO NO CHANGES IN THE OUT PERIODS.                          
$$                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT                 
DENVER AREA AIRPORTS. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS                
THIS MORNING COULD REACH DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM TIME TO              
TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING LATER TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM              
TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE EVENING EXPECTED TO                 
REVERSE TO A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ARRIVAL OF A WEAK                  
FRONTAL SURGE AROUND 09Z/MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUD WITH THIS               
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
BAKER/ENTREKIN                                                                  
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1015 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN RECEDE EAST AND            
WEAKEN. PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, WHILE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN            
MARITIMES AND DEEPENS SHARPLY. BY LATE SUNDAY, DEEP LOW PRESSURE                
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL A RUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR             
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY. A COLD                 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING FCST PACKAGE.  FIRST,                
HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE WHOLE AREA.  THE LATEST RUC HAS              
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE ERN SHORE OF MD AND DELMARVA BY 00Z. THERE             
IS ALSO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THE NAM/WRF AND THE STAT            
GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY DRY.  LATEST OBS HAVE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE            
TEENS, SO THE AMS REMAINS VERY DRY.  SO, A SLIGHT INCREASE SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WANTED TO TAKE THE             
PRUDENT COURSE AND NOT INCREASE THINGS TOO MUCH.  OTHERWISE, HAVE               
ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE             
TRENDS.  MOST OF THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS IS CIRRUS, BUT CLOUDS                   
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN WITH TIME.                                    
WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE MOVES BY US, BUT EVENTUALLY THEY SHOULD DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY            
COMPONENT WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO OUR                
WEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND GUIDANCE.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
TONIGHT, THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A JET                 
STREAK, WHICH WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING, DIGS               
AROUND THE TROUGH`S WESTERN SIDE, BOTTOMS OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT                
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT               
LAKES WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM THIS, BUT THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE                 
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT             
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PIVA, ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THAT SEEMS             
FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH. THEY ALSO AGREE ON THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME MID            
TO UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME APPROACHING LOWER LEVEL            
FRONTOGENESIS, BUT THAT SEEMS TO COME TOGETHER AROUND 12Z. THEY DO              
PAINT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVEL LIFTING                  
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF EXISTS, BUT IS UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN               
INCH AS THE BULK OF THE ACTION IS FORECAST WITH THE SECONDARY LOW.              
THIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKE A SCENARIO IN WHICH STAT GUIDANCE WOULD BE               
WOEFULLY UNDERDONE, AND WE CANNOT FIND ANY POPS FROM ANY PACKAGE IN             
OUR FORECAST AREA THAT EXCEEDS THE CHANCE LEVEL. WE WERE CARRYING               
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS, AND WE`VE BACKED OFF TO LOW LIKELY.            
OUR TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN CONTINUITY, AND BETWEEN THEM AND MODEL                
SOUNDINGS WE CARRY PRECIPITATION TYPES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND             
A CHANGING MIXED BAG FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST              
ARE NOT, AT PRESENT, THOUGHT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.                                 
AFTER THAT, THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW             
COULD BECOME A BOMB AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING            
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE THAT IT THROWS INTO THE              
EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE DECENT JET LIFTING UP              
SAME SIDE OF SAID TROUGH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST BY THE                 
ECMWF, GFS AND NAM TO CAUSE IT TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT                 
SWEEPS ACROSS US. ALL THREE MODELS HAVE A VERY NICE VORTICITY MAX               
MOVING ACROSS US WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS H925 AND H8 WINDS ARE IN             
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY, AND THE ECMWF WINDS ARE AT                
LEAST AS STRONG. THEIR TRAJECTORY IS OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,               
AND THE H8 TEMPERATURES OVER US BY 00Z MONDAY ARE EASILY BELOW                  
-10 DEG C. THEY`RE EASILY BELOW -15 DEG C OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH               
HAPPENS AROUND OR A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK, ARE DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH              
H8, AND THE SUBSIDENCE CAP IN THE COLD AIR IS UP AT AROUND 9K FT FOR            
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS CYCLONIC. THE WINDEX             
SCHEME THAT WE USE OFF THE OLD NGM FOUS DATA SUGGESTS THAT SNOW                 
SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT PHL. MEANWHILE, STAT GUIDANCE POPS ARE             
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST, AND THE HIGHEST ONES ARE FROM THE FWC                    
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
REGARDING POPS, WE`VE DECIDED THAT THE PIVA, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE              
LOWER LEVEL WINDS, THE MORNING FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE, THE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW, THE INITIALLY HIGH                      
SUBSIDENCE CAPS AND THE INDICATIONS OF THE WINDEX TECHNIQUE ARE                 
WORTH UPPING POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST, MODERATE CHANCE            
AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOW END OF CHANCE SOUTHEAST OF THERE.              
WE ARE GOING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAND AND MUCH OF THE WATER, AND              
WE`RE GOING TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS FROM THE FALL            
LINE NORTHWEST. WE CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM AROUND THE I-95                
CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE IN THE HWO. IF               
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT, ANY SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
REGARDING WINDS, WE ARE FORECASTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERION WINDS TO            
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND DIMINISH SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT               
INTO MONDAY. WE WILL NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, BUT AGAIN            
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.                                                   
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY, THE TRAJECTORIES                
ABOVE THE SURFACE MADE US KEEP LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR                    
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR A TIME. OTHERWISE, WE ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.            
WINDS, AS NOTED ABOVE, WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY.                                 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WE STAYED CLOSER TO CONTINUITY                
THAN TO GUIDANCE ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CLOUDS, AND             
WE HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY ARE A COLD BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. WIND CHILLS ON              
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO TANK, AND THEY WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.               
FOR NOW, THEY DO NOT SHOW IN THE TEXT PRODUCT BUT ARE IN THE                    
MATRICES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST                
AND A RETURN FLOW OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH              
REFORMING AND DIGGING TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THE THREAT OF MORE                
PCPN. FOLLOWING HPC PROGS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SO              
THAT MOST ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.                                         
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE WEST ALLOWING ANY               
PCPN TO BECOME SHOWERY. HOWEVER, WITH MORE COLD AIR, ANY PCPN                   
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS.                                                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF               
CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE IS                 
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING                 
ACROSS OR EAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS IS TRUE, THE TIMING AND TRACK             
OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF WE GET AN EAST COAST STORM WITH SNOW               
IN PARTS OF THE AREA OR NOT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,             
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.                                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ALL, IF NOT MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT             
HOURS, COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. SOME CIRRUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM AND CLOUDS WILL                    
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR AS               
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING            
OFF THE EAST COAST. A QUASI-WARM FRONT IS CONTINUED ON THE MODELS TO            
LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MOS STATISTICAL              
GUIDANCE CAPS PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, THERE SHOULD BE             
MORE SUBSTANTIAL, ALBEIT LIGHT, PRECIPITATION AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS             
THROUGH THE AREA IN VIEW OF THE MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND             
"JUST ENOUGH" MOISTURE. SO, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST              
TO DROP TO MARGINAL VFR TONIGHT. FOR THE PHILADELPHIA 30 HOUR TAF,              
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVED TOWARD MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION                    
DIMINISHES TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.                                   
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, NORTHERN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE ALL                 
SNOW. SOUTHERN TAF SITES, ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 1300 METER                
1000-850 HPA THICKNESS DEMARCATION, SHOULD BE WEIGHTED TOWARD RAIN.             
THE CENTRAL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY START OFF AS RAIN, OR A MIX OF                
RAIN AND SNOW, BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM                 
EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS AND DIURNAL TRENDS WHICH CAUSE SURFACE COOLING.             
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER THE HIGH WILL SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTH              
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS                   
OFFSHORE. THEN, WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD               
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL MERGE WELL OFF THE NEW             
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE RESULTANT                        
INTENSIFICATION WILL CAUSE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND AN                    
UNSTABLE FLOW REGIME OVER OUR AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW               
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS,               
WHICH ARE VERY LIKELY TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT AIR TRAVEL SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY BUT MOVE                 
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL HEAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING CONDITIONS TODAY               
AND TONIGHT, BUT THEN LOOK ALIVE MATEY AS HIGH-END GALE CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS                
AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FINE, BUT COLD. RAIN AND SOME            
SNOW MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES, BUT WINDS AND               
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH A LOW             
HEADING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THEY MERGE SUNDAY,                 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CAUSE A STRONG CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA             
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST 925 HPA WINDS ARE                    
FORECAST TO REACH 45 KNOTS, AND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVER RELATIVELY            
WARM WATER, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE EXCELLENT. SO, THE             
INHERITED GALE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A GALE WARNING, AND THE                 
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED...BACKED UP TO 16Z SUNDAY FOR A START TIME,              
AND RUN THROUGH 11Z MONDAY.                                                     
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL                 
TIDES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL                 
REACH THE BLOWOUT TIDE THRESHOLD, ACCORDING TO NGM AND AVIATION                 
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MONDAY BUT MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY.            
THEN, ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY, PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WOULD BE A CASE             
OF WARMER AIR OVER COLDER WATER, SO THERE WOULD BE LESS MIXING OF               
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                     
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT              
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-           
     431-450>455.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DELISI                                                               
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI                                                   
SHORT TERM...DELISI                                                             
LONG TERM...STAUBER                                                             
AVIATION...NIERENBERG                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1245 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY THEN A                      
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH                  
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A COMPLEX STORM                    
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST                   
MODELS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE             
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE              
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO POOL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG              
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID                
40S ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY                 
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.                
CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DECREASES WHEN ASSESSING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS...IT WILL                   
LIKELY BE AFTER 3 PM AND ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE 4 KM WRF                  
SHOWS A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE                 
EVENING IN COASTAL SC ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM-12 KEEPS ALL RAIN JUST               
OFFSHORE. THE GFS BRINGS RAIN TO COASTAL LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS                
THE 00Z ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE RUC-13 IS DRIER. BASED ON THE CURRENT              
POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARING OFF THE               
GA COAST ON VIS SATELLITE...A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT TWO TIERS OF GA COASTAL                   
COUNTIES AND MAYBE ONE LAYER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SC COAST.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...                          
THE LAST OF THE MAINLY LIGHT STRATIFORM RNFL WILL EXIT THE                      
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES                       
CLEARING AND WINDS STIRRING FROM THE NW TO W WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A              
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AIR MASS. SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL                   
AREAS BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES. WE HAVE              
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE COOLER GFS MOS LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WHICH              
FITS IN REAL NICE WITH OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS                  
MORNING...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A FAIRLY UNSETTLED                  
PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.                                   
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF            
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN              
FREE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD                  
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH               
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE                
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST              
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY            
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE            
POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR PRIMARILY COASTAL ZONES...WITH A              
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD EXTENT INTO INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES GIVEN            
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS REVOLVES AROUND THE               
HANDLING OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE            
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. IT DOES APPEAR HOWEVER THAT                
THEY ARE BOTH BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THIS             
WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE RUNS BEFORE A COMMON SOLUTION BECOMES             
CLEARLY APPARENT. THE GFS PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA                       
WEDNESDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST ON              
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH               
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD LATE                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE             
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN             
IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND THE UKMET MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.             
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION...WHICH AIDS IN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING MOST OF               
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE SYSTEMS PROGRESSION DOWN.               
EXPECT THAT THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN                
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SO WILL TRY TO INCORPORATE IDEAS FROM               
EACH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO REDUCE POTENTIAL FORECASTS BUSTS IN            
THE LATTER PERIODS AS THEY COULD BE QUITE LARGE. TO MAKE A LONG                 
STORY SHORT...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WEDNESDAY                 
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NE THROUGH THE AREA              
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOME              
WARM ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN                   
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED               
FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT PROLONGED RAIN EVENT THUS               
CONFINED RAIN TO TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS                   
WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL A REINFORCING              
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                         
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND 25-30              
KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.                                                  
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY                  
THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE                    
TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM               
IMPACTS THE AREA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE                 
CONDITIONS GOING FOR MOST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH              
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER                 
AIR AIR MASS PUNCHING IN TONIGHT. INCREASING W FLOW SHOULD JET                  
OFF THE COAST AND WE HAVE ISSUED A SECOND PERIOD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY           
FOR OUR 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS. AS USUAL...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH               
CONDITIONS AT GRAYS REEF FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS TOUCHING ADVISORY                
CRITERIA. OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 2-4 FT WITHING               
20 NM...BUT HIGHER 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEYOND 30              
NM E OF THE GEORGIA COAST.                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH                     
MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND                  
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON                      
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER                
GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED            
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE               
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL MAY                  
RESULT IN A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE              
WATERS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
803 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MYCALL AND                  
SALMON AREA AT THE MOMENT. A BIT OF CONVECTION OBSERVED WITH SOME               
SOLID PRECIPITATION READINGS MAINLY ON THE EAST OREGON AND WEST                 
IDAHO SIDE WHERE TROP HEIGHTS FALLING SHARPLY. MUCH OF THAT ENERGY              
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NEVADA WITH 150-160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET                     
DROPPING SOUTH. MADE SOME UPDATES MAINLY TO THE WEST SIDE OF                    
CUSTER COUNTY TO RAISE POPS AND BOOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR                 
THE MOUNTAINS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THINK 2 OR 3 INCHES               
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUNDS GOOD. RAISED POPS IN THE CHALLIS AREA               
AS WELL WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST THE VALLEY THERE SHOULD                   
FAVOR PRECIPITATION. WINDS HAVE EASED OFF SOME THE PAST COUPLE OF               
HOURS BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS THE                  
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE RUC13 AND NAM12                  
BOTH AGREE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND              
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH PERHAPS 900                       
AM...BREEZY BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. RS                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER             
TROF MOVING INTO THE WA COAST THIS AFTN...AND WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO            
ID BY MON MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CEN MTNS             
LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS            
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE MTNS...BUT STILL NOT MORE THAN A FEW INCHES             
OF SNOW AT BEST. THE VALLEY AREAS WILL ONLY SEE MINIMAL AMOUNTS FROM            
THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS              
ON MONDAY...AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL               
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...DROPPING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S            
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AS THE                
COLD FRONT PASSES.                                                              
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE W COAST ON TUE...BUT LOSES                
AMPLITUDE TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW PAC MSTR TO FLOW INTO THE PAC              
NW. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CEN MTNS LATE TUE NIGHT AND                   
EASTERN HIGHLANDS TOWARD WED MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU WED NIGHT.               
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH NONE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HEDGES               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN US                
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO                
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OUT            
OF ALASKA.  CURRENT MODELERS LIKE THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH                
SHOWS A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY              
INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN US.  DO TO LOCATION OF WHERE THIS ENERGY GETS STARTED...MUCH            
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH MANY             
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW ZERO READINGS.  WE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR                
GREATER POTENTIAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WINTER WEATHER                   
CONDITIONS. VLP                                                                 
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. CLOUDS INCREASE OVER MUCH OF                   
EASTERN IDAHO BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF             
CANADA INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z                  
TOMORROW MORNING.  A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR FOR A            
FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW. VLP                        
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
852 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 852 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                
CHALLENGE OF THE EVENING IS ON WHETHER PRECIP WILL DEVELOP                      
TONIGHT...AND IF IT DOES...HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN/ICING WILL OCCUR.             
WIND PROFILERS UPSTREAM SHOW A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL                     
WINDS...WITH A TEXTBOOK WAA PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. 40-45 KTS OF WIND              
AT 925-850MB INDICATE THE LLJ HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. SO LIFT               
IS DEFINITELY BEING GENERATED IN THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.                   
NOW THE QUESTION IS THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE STRONGEST OMEGA                 
LAYER OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR HERE AND UPSTREAM         
WAS APPARENT IN THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCHES AT ILX AND SGF MO. 80+PCT              
RH WAS NOT SEEN UNTIL 700MB OR 10K FT. CLOUD LAYERS APPROACHING                 
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT WITH OBS SHOWING 11-12K FT CLOUD HTS. A FEW                  
SPOTS OF 8.5K FT ARE DEVELOPING IN FAR NW MO...SO SOME LOWERING OF              
THE LAYER IS APPARENT.                                                          
THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC AND THE 00Z NAM SHOW TOO                 
MUCH DRY AIR FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. EVEN WITH THAT BEING               
SAID...STILL NOT COMFORTABLE WITH PULLING OUT THE MENTION OF                    
FZRA/SN FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT PRECIP TYPE ANALYSIS SHOWING                 
MORE OF A FZRA/SLEET COMBO POSSIBLE INSTEAD OF FZRA/SN...SO I                   
CHANGED THE WX GRID TO CHC OF FZRA/SLEET. EITHER WAY...THE                      
FREEZING RAIN IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS                     
TRAVEL. IF MORE QPF WERE POSSIBLE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                   
MIGHT BE IN ORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE                   
PRECIP ACCUM NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                                          
OVERALL...THE CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT WERE TO THE                 
WX PRECIP TYPE...WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED               
A BIT. TEMPS APPEARED OK.                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                              
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 605 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008...FOR THE 00Z TAFS                             
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WAA HAS PRODUCED CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IN THE               
NE HALF OF THE CWA. THAT AREA OF VFR CLOUDS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST                
OF THE TAF SITES BY 03Z OR 04Z. THE NEXT UPSTREAM BAND OF WAA IS                
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.                 
GFS AND NAM GUID ARE INDICATING SOME MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPING BY                 
08Z OR 09Z IN SPI AND DEC...AND CMI BY 11Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO                
FOR 5SM -FZRAPL AND MVFR BKN025 FOR A COUPLE HOURS.                             
IF PRECIP IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS...AM A BIT                   
WORRIED THAT ICING CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DETERIORATE TRAVEL                    
SURFACES. THE GROUND IS QUITE COLD AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SUB                   
FREEZING CONDITIONS.                                                            
THE BAND OF WAA AND MIXED PRECIP SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY LATE MONDAY               
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL THEN AT ALL TAF SITES.                      
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 246 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM             
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...                 
UPSTREAM...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE             
PLAINS. THE VARIOUS PHASES OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM THAT IMPACT            
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY            
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                       
12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES EXPECTED TO               
IMPACT FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE                
STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AS THE MAIN LOW               
PASSES THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE                         
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HAVE TRENDED            
THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT NAM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTIONS WHICH             
WOULD START THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY                   
AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP ALL RAIN GOING THROUGH THE DAY                    
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SHOWING SOME SPREAD...ESPECIALLY AS              
YOU GO OUT IN TIME. HAVE TENDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES              
BUT SHIED AWAY SOMEWHAT FROM THE GFS BASED MAV.                                 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET FOR               
THE MOST PART...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM                 
STILL FAR TO OUR WEST...IT WILL NOT BE WITHOUT POTENTIAL FORECAST               
PROBLEMS. A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO EVOLVE TO OUR WEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON...ALREADY NOTICEABLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI ON            
THE SURFACE CHART AND IN THE COOLING SATELLITE CLOUD TOPS...WILL                
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG                    
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS              
FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION AS IT LIFTS                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE AN INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS. FORECAST             
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW AT THE ONSET...BUT ENOUGH OF AN                  
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. THE                  
FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE                
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND/OR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS INTO                   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONSIDERED PUTTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT             
FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT ICING...BUT DO NOT FEEL THE FREEZING RAIN               
WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE AT THIS                
TIME. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD LARGELY END BY MIDDAY MONDAY              
AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                          
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE             
ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW                  
FREEZING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FACT...                  
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF OUR               
PRECIPITATION THREAT IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN SYSTEM...AS IT               
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND PASSES BY TUESDAY...SHOULD BE A GOOD                
RAIN PRODUCER. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE                
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL KEEP GOOD MOISTURE AND                   
FORCING IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN STRONG             
AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER TUESDAY                
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING             
SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE SNOW THREAT FOR US DOES NOT LOOK TOO                
SIGNIFICANT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF RATHER                   
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE IS                
EXPECTED TO LARGELY STAY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SO...WITH THIS IN               
MIND...HAVE QUICKLY LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.                
WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO               
THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT BUILD               
INTO THE REGION.                                                                
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS/ENSEMBLES                   
CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BEYOND                   
THURSDAY...WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE                 
FORECAST. WITH NO STRONG/PERSISTENT SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING            
THE PERIOD...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK               
AND WEEKEND REVOLVES AROUND TEMPERATURES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS                
STILL SUGGESTS MILDER CONDITIONS THAN WERE EXPECTED SEVERAL DAYS                
AGO...BUT THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.              
SO...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...WHICH ENDS UP BEING NEAR            
NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. I DID END UP ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
RAIN/SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THERE IS A REASONABLE                
HINT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND                 
STRENGTH OF THE THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY LOW.                                       
BAK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1254 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE                
REGION TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1                  
MILE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
MI. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY                 
WILL SUPPORT A WANING TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING. IN                     
ADDITION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
INTO THE REGION...BACKING IN THE PROCESS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT                   
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE AND ADDED LL MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE MI WILL              
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON                   
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY              
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.               
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY                   
EVENING...SUPPORTING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
NORTH. DETAILS ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNKNOWN.                     
HENCE...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY ADD WX MENTION TO              
TAF TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
UPDATE... SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH CLIPPING THROUGH CNTRL                
LWR MI ATTM ABT TO CLR NW OH. STG CAA IN WAKE OF SFC BNDRY W/RAPID              
VEERING OF FLW ACRS LK MI AND RAMPING SNOW STREAMERS DVLPG IN ITS               
WAKE. UPSTREAM TEMPS CRASHING W/SINGLE DIGITS NOTED OVR MOST OF                 
MN. INITIAL LL FLW TRAJECTORY AT 320 DEGREES BUT VEERS FURTHER                  
UPSTREAM TO 300 AND SIMILAR TO 21Z RUC/12Z 4KM ARW PROGS. WHILE                 
THIS SUGGESTS GOING WSW HIGHLIGHTS ON THE MARK...IT ALSO RAISES                 
SOME FLAGS FURTHER INLAND ESP IN LIGHT OF STG LL MEAN FLW AND                   
INLAND CREEP XPCD W/INTENSE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS. HIRES ARW OUTPUT               
CONFIRMED BY 21Z RUC MAKE A CASE FOR E/SE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY                 
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR ST JOE MI/ELKHART.               
HWVR GIVEN DIMINISHING RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR AND DECREASING                    
INVERSION HGTS LT TONIGHT...DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW LIMITED. WILL              
CONT TO MONITOR UPSTREAM DVLPMNTS THROUGH 7PM GIVEN EXISTING                    
ADVISORY TIL THEN.                                                              
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD XCP AT KSBN WHERE IFR                       
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIG WILL CONT OVERNIGHT BFR IMPRVG SOMEWHAT AFT            
DAYBREAK SUN.                                                                   
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOW OVER NRN MI WITH CDFNT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS                 
AFTN. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO                   
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CONTINUING TO GET SOME                   
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE DRY SLOT AND NORTHEAST OF THERE              
SNOWFALL WAS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SOME SGFNT WINTER WX HAZARDS SO                    
EXTENDED ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING TIL 7PM. MULT BAND LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NW PORTION OF CWA ATTM. SHRTWV SEEN              
ON WATER VAPOR MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM/NE WI THIS AFTN WILL MOVE SE               
ACRS THE CWA THIS EVE...LIKELY ENHANCING THE SNOW SHOWER                        
ACTIVITY. 925MB OMEGA FCSTS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT                 
BAND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS BERRIEN/CASS SEWD THROUGH                         
ELKHART/ST. JOE INDIANA. INVERSION FCST TO LOWER TO UNDER 5KFT                  
LATE TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH INTENSITY OF SNOW                   
SHOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING... HWVR AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE              
OVERNIGHT... THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO              
WIND TO DVLP ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG ERN SHORE...LIKELY                     
CAUSING OR SUSTAINING A DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY               
MORNING. NAM12 SHOWING WK SFC TROF MOVG SSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE                  
TONIGHT... LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS LAND/LAKE WIND/CONVERGENCE                
INTERACTION. GOING FCST OF UP TO 6" OVERNIGHT IN ERN BERRIEN/CASS               
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SE SEEMS REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES TO                
AMOUNTS/HEADLINES MADE ATTM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE                         
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE SNOW                
SHOWERS TAPER END. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ARE             
AOB ALL 12Z MOS...BUT SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A TOUCH TOO WARM BASED             
ON FCST -15C H85 TEMPS AND RECENT MOS WARM BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATION            
ON FRI.                                                                         
SHRTWV TOPPING RIDGE OVER PAC NW THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE               
INTO BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN US. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED                
TO APPROACH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COINCIDING WITH WAA ON BACKSIDE               
OF SFC RIDGE RESULTING IN DECENT MID LEVEL ISENT LIFT WITH 2G/KG                
MIXING RATIO ON 290K ISENT SFC AROUND 700MB. LOW LEVELS REMAIN                  
RATHER DRY THROUGH THIS PD SO STILL SOME DOUBT IF THIS WAA SNOW                 
WILL FALL THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP UP POPS OVER ALL BUT SRN                
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY               
NIGHT... LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND RATHER                
DRY LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH PRECEEDING COOLER DAY THAN FCST BY                  
MOS...ALL SUGGEST GOING LOWS IN TEENS AND BLO ALL 12Z MOS                       
GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES MADE.                                    
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE BEGINNING AS MONDAY SEES               
WEAKENING CLIPPER WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED            
AREA OF MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  UPR LOW OVER                 
SOUTHWEST OPENS AND PHASES WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER MOUNTAIN WEST             
AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SFC LOW EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.                  
WHILE DIFFERENCES EXITS IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THE                   
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A BETTER CONSENSUS ON A                 
WARMER SOLUTION WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS INDIANA.  FOLLOWED A               
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE SUITE              
OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FURTHER SE WITH THIS SYSTEM            
PUTTING CWA IN A DECIDEDLY COLDER ENVIRONMENT.                                  
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OP GFS/ECMWF...THICKNESS FIELDS AND               
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN AN AREA OF                        
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED BY BRISK 40 KT FLOW ALONG MOIST 295K              
SFC. PROFILES DO NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL WINDOW FOR                 
FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WITH TIME AS SCENARIO OF                 
WAA ALOFT OVER TRAPPED COLD AIR BELOW COULD YET PRODUCE A PERIOD                
WITH FZRA HAZARD. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE COLUMN WARMS THROUGHOUT AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE OPERATIONAL              
MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST CHANGING GRIDS OVER TO AN ALL RAIN                    
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW REACHING NEAR/ABV 40 FOR TUESDAY HIGHS              
AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FZ PROFILE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT                 
LAYER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO..GFS/EC NOW IN BASIC AGREEMENT                 
WITH PTYPE SCENARIO...AND THE OP GFS HAS NUDGED FURTHER                         
NORTH/WARMER WITH 3 SUCCESSIVE RUNS. HOWEVER..THE FACT THAT IT IS               
AN OUTLIER AMONG ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO                
CHC SNOW MENTION TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIKELY RAIN FOR THE TIME                    
BEING. ECMWF IS FASTER/SHALLOWER WITH SFC LOW BUT HAS TRENDED                   
TOWARDS GFS WITH 12Z RUN AND CURRENT WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS IS                   
SLANTED TOWARDS SLOWER/DEEPER GFS.                                              
BEHIND SYSTEM COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE CWA CHANGING               
EVERYONE BACK OVER TO A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND               
RETURNING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD H85              
TEMPS AND NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN SIGNAL A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT AND HAVE            
CONSERVATIVELY ADDED CHC POPS IN BERRIEN COUNTY.  MODELS THEN BRING             
IN ANOTHER WAVE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING              
DIFFERENCES AND LARGE CONTRASTS IN DEPICTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW                
OVER NOAM. HAVE LEFT DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW TO LET THINGS SORT OUT                   
WITH ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                    
     INZ004>008-016-017.                                                        
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-078.           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079-            
     080.                                                                       
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
616 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH CLIPPING THROUGH CNTRL LWR MI ATTM              
ABT TO CLR NW OH. STG CAA IN WAKE OF SFC BNDRY W/RAPID VEERING OF               
FLW ACRS LK MI AND RAMPING SNOW STREAMERS DVLPG IN ITS WAKE.                    
UPSTREAM TEMPS CRASHING W/SINGLE DIGITS NOTED OVR MOST OF MN.                   
INITIAL LL FLW TRAJECTORY AT 320 DEGREES BUT VEERS FURTHER UPSTREAM             
TO 300 AND SIMILAR TO 21Z RUC/12Z 4KM ARW PROGS. WHILE THIS SUGGESTS            
GOING WSW HIGHLIGHTS ON THE MARK...IT ALSO RAISES SOME FLAGS FURTHER            
INLAND ESP IN LIGHT OF STG LL MEAN FLW AND INLAND CREEP XPCD                    
W/INTENSE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS. HIRES ARW OUTPUT CONFIRMED BY 21Z                
RUC MAKE A CASE FOR E/SE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND                    
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR ST JOE MI/ELKHART. HWVR GIVEN                  
DIMINISHING RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR AND DECREASING INVERSION HGTS LT             
TONIGHT...DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW LIMITED. WILL CONT TO MONITOR                
UPSTREAM DVLPMNTS THROUGH 7PM GIVEN EXISTING ADVISORY TIL THEN.                 
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD XCP AT KSBN WHERE IFR                       
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIG WILL CONT OVERNIGHT BFR IMPRVG SOMEWHAT AFT            
DAYBREAK SUN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LOW OVER NRN MI WITH CDFNT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS                 
AFTN. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO                   
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CONTINUING TO GET SOME                   
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE DRY SLOT AND NORTHEAST OF THERE              
SNOWFALL WAS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SOME SGFNT WINTER WX HAZARDS SO                    
EXTENDED ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING TIL 7PM. MULT BAND LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NW PORTION OF CWA ATTM. SHRTWV SEEN              
ON WATER VAPOR MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM/NE WI THIS AFTN WILL MOVE SE               
ACRS THE CWA THIS EVE...LIKELY ENHANCING THE SNOW SHOWER                        
ACTIVITY. 925MB OMEGA FCSTS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT                 
BAND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS BERRIEN/CASS SEWD THROUGH                         
ELKHART/ST. JOE INDIANA. INVERSION FCST TO LOWER TO UNDER 5KFT                  
LATE TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH INTENSITY OF SNOW                   
SHOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING... HWVR AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE              
OVERNIGHT... THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO              
WIND TO DVLP ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG ERN SHORE...LIKELY                     
CAUSING OR SUSTAINING A DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY               
MORNING. NAM12 SHOWING WK SFC TROF MOVG SSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE                  
TONIGHT... LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS LAND/LAKE WIND/CONVERGENCE                
INTERACTION. GOING FCST OF UP TO 6" OVERNIGHT IN ERN BERRIEN/CASS               
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SE SEEMS REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES TO                
AMOUNTS/HEADLINES MADE ATTM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE                         
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE SNOW                
SHOWERS TAPER END. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ARE             
AOB ALL 12Z MOS...BUT SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A TOUCH TOO WARM BASED             
ON FCST -15C H85 TEMPS AND RECENT MOS WARM BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATION            
ON FRI.                                                                         
SHRTWV TOPPING RIDGE OVER PAC NW THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE               
INTO BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN US. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED                
TO APPROACH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COINCIDING WITH WAA ON BACKSIDE               
OF SFC RIDGE RESULTING IN DECENT MID LEVEL ISENT LIFT WITH 2G/KG                
MIXING RATIO ON 290K ISENT SFC AROUND 700MB. LOW LEVELS REMAIN                  
RATHER DRY THROUGH THIS PD SO STILL SOME DOUBT IF THIS WAA SNOW                 
WILL FALL THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP UP POPS OVER ALL BUT SRN                
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY               
NIGHT... LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND RATHER                
DRY LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH PRECEEDING COOLER DAY THAN FCST BY                  
MOS...ALL SUGGEST GOING LOWS IN TEENS AND BLO ALL 12Z MOS                       
GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES MADE.                                    
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE BEGINNING AS MONDAY SEES               
WEAKENING CLIPPER WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED            
AREA OF MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  UPR LOW OVER                 
SOUTHWEST OPENS AND PHASES WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER MOUNTAIN WEST             
AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SFC LOW EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.                  
WHILE DIFFERENCES EXITS IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THE                   
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A BETTER CONSENSUS ON A                 
WARMER SOLUTION WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS INDIANA.  FOLLOWED A               
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE SUITE              
OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FURTHER SE WITH THIS SYSTEM            
PUTTING CWA IN A DECIDEDLY COLDER ENVIRONMENT.                                  
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OP GFS/ECMWF...THICKNESS FIELDS AND               
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN AN AREA OF                        
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED BY BRISK 40 KT FLOW ALONG MOIST 295K              
SFC. PROFILES DO NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL WINDOW FOR                 
FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WITH TIME AS SCENARIO OF                 
WAA ALOFT OVER TRAPPED COLD AIR BELOW COULD YET PRODUCE A PERIOD                
WITH FZRA HAZARD. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE COLUMN WARMS THROUGHOUT AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE OPERATIONAL              
MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST CHANGING GRIDS OVER TO AN ALL RAIN                    
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW REACHING NEAR/ABV 40 FOR TUESDAY HIGHS              
AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FZ PROFILE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT                 
LAYER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO..GFS/EC NOW IN BASIC AGREEMENT                 
WITH PTYPE SCENARIO...AND THE OP GFS HAS NUDGED FURTHER                         
NORTH/WARMER WITH 3 SUCCESSIVE RUNS. HOWEVER..THE FACT THAT IT IS               
AN OUTLIER AMONG ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO                
CHC SNOW MENTION TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIKELY RAIN FOR THE TIME                    
BEING. ECMWF IS FASTER/SHALLOWER WITH SFC LOW BUT HAS TRENDED                   
TOWARDS GFS WITH 12Z RUN AND CURRENT WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS IS                   
SLANTED TOWARDS SLOWER/DEEPER GFS.                                              
BEHIND SYSTEM COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE CWA CHANGING               
EVERYONE BACK OVER TO A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND               
RETURNING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD H85              
TEMPS AND NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN SIGNAL A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT AND HAVE            
CONSERVATIVELY ADDED CHC POPS IN BERRIEN COUNTY.  MODELS THEN BRING             
IN ANOTHER WAVE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING              
DIFFERENCES AND LARGE CONTRASTS IN DEPICTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW                
OVER NOAM. HAVE LEFT DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW TO LET THINGS SORT OUT                   
WITH ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR VSBYS WILL BE MOVG OUT                
OF NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTN AS CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA BY THIS EVE AND CONTINUING                   
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT               
SBN DURING THE LAKE EFFECT EPISODE AND MVFR AT FWA.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS                     
AFTERNOON      FOR INZ003-006>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.              
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
MIZ080-     081.                                                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
OHZ001-     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                        
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR VSBYS WILL BE MOVG OUT                
OF NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTN AS CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA BY THIS EVE AND CONTINUING                   
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT               
SBN DURING THE LAKE EFFECT EPISODE AND MVFR AT FWA.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACROSS CWA ATTM. SNOW FALLING IN WAA REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM. WRN EDGE OF AREA OF PRECIP                  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT... LOOSES MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY               
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SE 2/3 OF CWA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.                 
UPSTREAM TEMPS AND CONTD WAA AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST GOING HIGHS                 
FOR TODAY ARE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AND GENERALLY RAISED ABOUT                 
3F. OTRWS NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE ATTM.                                           
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
.WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                       
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                       
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR INZ003-006>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.              
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ080-          
     081.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-          
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                               
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
932 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACROSS CWA ATTM. SNOW FALLING IN WAA REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM. WRN EDGE OF AREA OF PRECIP                  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT... LOOSES MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY               
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SE 2/3 OF CWA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.                 
UPSTREAM TEMPS AND CONTD WAA AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST GOING HIGHS                 
FOR TODAY ARE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AND GENERALLY RAISED ABOUT                 
3F. OTRWS NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE ATTM.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.              
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL                 
AFFECT MAINLY KSBN BUT TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
MAKE IT INTO KFWA.                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
..WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                      
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                      
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
620 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.              
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL                 
AFFECT MAINLY KSBN BUT TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
MAKE IT INTO KFWA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                     
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                           
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE                          
PERIOD...BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.                
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT               
SBN AND FWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MOS AND UPSTREAM OBS. STRONG               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW OFF               
THE SFC AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL                 
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY                                  
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30                  
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR                
BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE FA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                    
DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST FA...WITH IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY EVENING IN A COMBINATION OF BLOWING                  
SNOW AND HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. HAVE TRENDED SBN IN THIS DIRECTION.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
400 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                     
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH MAX           
UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL             
INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE DOMINATE BAND             
AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND SHEAR EFFECTS.                
NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUPPORTING THE                    
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. HIRES            
WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4             
INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE DOMINATE                   
BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE MESOSCALE               
PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM                  
WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                   
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                           
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE                          
PERIOD...BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.                
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT               
SBN AND FWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MOS AND UPSTREAM OBS. STRONG               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW OFF               
THE SFC AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL                 
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY                                  
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30                  
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR                
BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE FA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                    
DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST FA...WITH IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY EVENING IN A COMBINATION OF BLOWING                  
SNOW AND HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. HAVE TRENDED SBN IN THIS DIRECTION.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECEIVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                                
MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER                  
IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE                
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM              
APPROACHES...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF                
I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR              
TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER             
MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS            
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR                 
WORKS ITS WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME              
THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT             
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/18Z                                                              
LIGHT SNOW WILL END NEAR MCW AND ALO BY AROUND 20Z THEN WILL HAVE A             
RETURN OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO A             
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN                     
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME FREEZING              
RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTM/ALO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.                  
POSSIBLE THIS PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE DSM AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                  
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
600 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECEIVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                                
MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER                  
IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE                
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM              
APPROACHES...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF                
I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR              
TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER             
MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS            
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR                 
WORKS ITS WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME              
THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT             
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/12Z                                                              
VFR CIGS...WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AS BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW             
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING                     
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA. VSBYS REDUCTIONS               
FROM LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN 3 TAF SITES WHERE             
MVFR/MARGINAL IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IN HEAVIER                 
BANDS. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE WITHIN THE BANDS              
OF SNOW AS WELL. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM               
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS             
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND...BUT ATTM            
HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT DECK. ALSO A WEAK DISTURBANCE                  
TRAVELING ACROSS SRN IA LATE TONIGHT...MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND            
PATCHY FZDZ TO KOTM. UNCERTAINTY QUITE HIGH WITH THIS...SO HAVE LEFT            
OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                  
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
348 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECIEVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL       
FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT                
PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY                   
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...RAIN WILL               
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE                
LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH...ALONG                
WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE                
NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW                   
MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER MUCH CHANCE FOR                    
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A                    
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR WORKS ITS               
WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME THOUGH                 
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT                    
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/06Z                                                              
WARM ADVECTION SETTING IN QUICKLY WEST WITH WINDS BECOMING SSE BY               
MORNING. ZONE OF STRONGER THETAE ADVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS             
ALREADY LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AND WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.              
CLOUDS NOW ENTERING WESTERN IA WITH CEILINGS LOWERING.  MODEST MID              
LEVEL LIFT WILL CAUSE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK                 
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE              
SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS MAINLY WITH VSBYS OF GENERAL 3-5SM CAT.                
SMALL CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER                    
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z NORTH SECTIONS. CIGS GRADUALLY               
LIFTING TOWARD 00Z FROM WEST TO EAST. FARTHER SOUTH...IMPACT NOT AS             
GREAT WITH KOTM SEEING LEAST IMPACT FROM THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP                
THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA              
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AFT 08/00Z WILL SEE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AND                 
ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS TO RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE             
REGION. /REV                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ALBRECHT                                                           
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
AVIATION...REV                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
351 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEY ON A LIKELY             
PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.                             
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER            
FLOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA              
COAST PHASING INTO THE WEAKENING RIDGE, DROPPING THE MEAN HEIGHT                
FIELD  OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A NARROW THERMAL AXIS WAS                
LOCATED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AT SFC-700 MB.                    
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TOP OUT           
IN SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF             
THE FAR EASTERN CWA, WHILE CLOUDS AND LOWER 850 TEMPERATURES WILL               
WILL HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST.                                    
FOR TONIGHT, CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN                
COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING ACROSS THE           
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY                
MORE MILD THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR           
40 IN THE SOUTH WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY EVEN KEEP TEMPERATURES              
FROM DROPPING THIS LOW OVER THE NORTH.                                          
REASONABLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA ON MONDAY. WITH LESS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND INCREASED CLOUD               
COVER WILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NOT REACH QUITE AS WARM FOR                   
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY CHANCES FOR                      
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY            
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.                                                         
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT.                
ECMWF/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE                 
GFS IS A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER LOW CENTER AND             
RESULTING STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...SO MUCH SO THAT THE                
SNOW OUTPUT TOTAL IS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SW KANSAS              
BY EARLY TUESDAY. GFS OUTPUTS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF TOTAL THAN             
THE OTHER MODELS...MOST OF WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO SNOW. IN                 
CONTRAST, THE NAM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS,              
AND LITTLE IF ANY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. THE ECMWF AND               
NAM SEEM TO BE THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT,                     
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ACROSS OK/TX AND IT WOULD               
SEEM TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD BEE NEEDED TO PRODUCE THIS             
KIND OF A SYSTEM. WILL FORECAST 1 TO 3 INCHES PRIMARILY FROM                    
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST                
WOULD RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. VERY LITTLE IF ANY                  
RAINFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE WARM              
ADVECTION/THETA-A E ADVECTION WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE                         
CYCLOGENESIS, WITH HIGH PROBABILITY BUT LOW QPF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF              
THE CHANGEOVER. LATER MONDAY EVENING, CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND THE             
950-700 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LAYER BEGINS TO UNDERGO STRETCHING              
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. 850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A             
PERIOD OF RAINFALL BEFORE A RAIN SNOW MIX DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING,              
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL            
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW            
HOWEVER REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE REMAINS UNCERTAIN                
DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25+ MPH AS DEV-RUC 13KM MAINTAINING VSBYS            
ABOVE 1/2 MILE DURING  THE STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER THE SNOW MELTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY, IT                 
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 50S BY              
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG WSW MID LEVEL FLOW INDUCES A LEE                  
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                                 
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST, AN ARCTIC HIGH               
SHOULD MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. TODAY`S SUITE OF MODELS HAVE             
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT                
ONLY BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG COLD SURGE MAY               
HOLD OFF UNTIL A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                            
ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AFTER               
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES, A STORM SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PER ECMWF. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO GET                      
PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR IN DEC/JAN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SINCE THE              
WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE TO OUR EAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  66  35  53  27 /   0  10  40  80                                           
GCK  67  36  56  25 /   0  10  50  80                                           
EHA  68  38  56  26 /   0  10  40  80                                           
LBL  65  37  56  28 /   0  10  40  80                                           
HYS  55  33  49  25 /   0  10  50  90                                           
P28  64  35  58  32 /   0  10  40  80                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN33/24                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1116 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1112 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
TEMPS HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY ON PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD...AND SFC                
WINDS AND TDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...AND                    
LATEST GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S                    
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN A NORTH SOUTH                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED EAST-WEST GRADIENT...BUT BASED ON              
LATEST SFC OBS UNDER CLOUD COVER NOT SURE THAT IMPACT WILL BE THAT              
GREAT.                                                                          
BY 18Z TEMPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM RAPIDLY WITH GLD AREA BEING                 
THE HOT SPOT. HAVE UPPED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF                
THE SOUTHWEST...AS CURRENT TEMP TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE                
AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE MIXED.                                              
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1112 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 15Z WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO                
THE NORTH AROUND 12 KTS.                                                        
JRM &&                                                                          
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
941 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
937 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
TEMPS HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY ON PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD...AND SFC                
WINDS AND TDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...AND                    
LATEST GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S                    
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN A NORTH SOUTH                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED EAST-WEST GRADIENT...BUT BASED ON              
LATEST SFC OBS UNDER CLOUD COVER NOT SURE THAT IMPACT WILL BE THAT              
GREAT.                                                                          
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT               
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL SEE A GENERALLY          
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CENTERED AROUND 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH               
THE TAF CYCLE.                                                                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
441 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT               
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL SEE A GENERALLY          
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CENTERED AROUND 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH               
THE TAF CYCLE.                                                                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST              
ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST            
ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE              
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
426 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BY 05Z                
OR 06Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 8           
TO 10 KTS UNDER SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...WINDS                  
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 KTS UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH                   
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE                
TAF PERIOD.                                                                     
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
125 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED                         
EARLIER...OPTED TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE                    
SW...WITH COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN                        
MIND...OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                     
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS             
COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF            
THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST             
COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY                
LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED            
BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING                    
SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON             
SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE               
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                                             
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO                           
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE                   
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING                
PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY               
LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST            
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                          
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANYING A           
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH               
10Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND AS DEPICTED BY THE VCSH IN THE TAFS.            
PUT A TEMPO INTO THE TAFS FROM 07 THROUGH 11Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...            
BOTH VIS AND CIG...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL           
DIMINISH TO JUST FLURRIES TOWARD DAWN WITH CIGS DISAPPEARING BY NOON.           
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...NOW EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THE WINDS HAVE                
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ELEMENT OF GUSTINESS. EXPECT THESE             
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TOWARD DAWN AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT              
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
850 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED                         
EARLIER...OPTED TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE                    
SW...WITH COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN                        
MIND...OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                     
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS             
COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF            
THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST             
COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY                
LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED            
BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING                    
SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON             
SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE               
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                                             
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO                           
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE                   
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING                
PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY               
LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST            
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                          
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A               
COLD FRONT. EXPECTING PREDOMINANT VFR THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH TEMPO IFR           
IN -SHSN NORTH OF LOZ AND SME. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT A           
WSHFT TO THE NW WITH MVFR CIGS. COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN              
AROUND THE SME AND LOZ TAF SITES...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHSN FROM JKL            
AND POINTS EAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ADDITIONAL -SHSN. COULD               
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHSN.               
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL 13 TO 14Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT             
AT LOZ AND SME. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT JKL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO            
VFR BY AROUND 14Z. PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND ENDING EARLY               
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
850 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED EARLIER...OPTED         
TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE SW...WITH          
COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND...OPTED TO LEAN             
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING            
OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN             
THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME           
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH             
THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE            
APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON.             
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER               
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY               
DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN                
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES           
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                   
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE          
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL            
BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE                
PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON            
TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND                  
ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                  
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A               
COLD FRONT. EXPECTING PREDOMINANT VFR THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH TEMPO IFR           
IN -SHSN NORTH OF LOZ AND SME. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT A           
WSHFT TO THE NW WITH MVFR CIGS. COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN              
AROUND THE SME AND LOZ TAF SITES...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHSN FROM JKL            
AND POINTS EAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ADDITIONAL -SHSN. COULD               
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHSN.               
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL 13 TO 14Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT             
AT LOZ AND SME. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT JKL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO            
VFR BY AROUND 14Z. PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND ENDING EARLY               
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
352 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END                
ACROSS THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. WIND WILL INCREASE              
LATER TONIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT                 
AND MONDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EAST OF THE GULF OF               
MAINE INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE INTENSE                
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.              
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS                 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR                  
AREA IS BANDING PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST OF THIS IS CURRENTLY               
MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. SITUATION IS FURTHER COMPLICATED               
WITH INTRUSION OF WARMER MARITIME AIR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST                    
WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH TEMPORARILY CHANGED SNOW TO RAIN. BANDING               
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED WITH COASTAL FRONTOGENSIS INDUCED BY WARM               
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STRATEGY WILL BE TO USE RUC13...WHICH IS              
MOST SUITED FOR BANDING EVENT AND CURRENTLY CORRELATES BEST TO                  
RADAR. WILL THEN TRANSITION TO NAM12 AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. WILL               
USE NAM12 TEMPERATURES AND WIND INTO THIS EVENING THEN TRANSITION               
TO GMOS NUMBERS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)                  
MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY QUICK FALL IN TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED EARLY               
MONDAY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. IN FACT... SUBZERO READINGS ARE                
LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH...BEFORE                 
TEMPS LEVEL OUT LATER AT NIGHT WITH OVERALL PRESSURE FALL PATTERN               
DEVELOPING...AND SOME CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE IN WEAK WARM                  
AIR ADVECTION (WWA).                                                            
WE WILL TRY TO USE A SENSIBLE WEATHER APPROACH TO A VERY COMPLEX                
PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST AN INCREASING              
ISENTROPIC LIFTING REGIME WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS                     
TUESDAY...WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PCPN SHOULD               
START AS SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AS               
OVERALL THERMAL STRUCTURE WARMS.                                                
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING/WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY               
NIGHT...WHILE OUR AREA COMES UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN              
INTENSIFYING ANTICYCLONIC JET ALOFT. TREMENDOUS LIFTING POTENTIAL               
WILL YIELD PCPN OVER OUR FA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ..WHILE PCPN              
STRUCTURE SHIFTS FROM SNOW TO RAIN CENTRAL...AND PCPN GRADUALLY                 
BECOMES A MIXTURE SNOW AND RAIN IN THE NORTH LATE.                              
IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY...               
WITH ALL PCPN BUSTING OVER TO RAIN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH THE MODELS A BIT AT ODDS...BUT THE ECMWF              
HAS BEEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES               
A 987MB LOW CENTERED NEAR QUEBEC CITY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM                     
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF HAS A 992MB LOW               
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING              
SW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THOUGH THE               
DIFFERENCE DOESN`T SOUND DRASTIC...IT IS A MAJOR DIFFERENCE FOR THE             
COASTAL WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST COAST AND INLAND DOWNEAST. THE                  
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH                 
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY                 
WHEN THE MODELS ARE BACK INTO AGREEMENT AND REMAIN IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE GMOS FOR THE                
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS HELD ITS              
TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE OTHER MODELS TRENDING                    
TOWARD IT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT BUT...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS FORECASTED                
IT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE DOWNEAST             
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST FROM WED EVENING THROUGH THUR                       
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO IFR                 
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...            
AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO                   
PERSIST BEYOND MIDWEEK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASING WIND SPEED TO QUICKLY               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MANUALLY ADJUST CURRENT WIND SPEEDS                  
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM12 WINDS. HAVE INITIALIZED WINDS TONIGHT AND              
MONDAY WITH NAM12...THEN WILL INCREASE MODEL SPEEDS AROUND 3 KNOTS              
TO ELIMINATE LOW BIAS. FOR WAVES: HAVE USED WNA/4 WHICH LOOKS                   
REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE TIMING OF GALE WARNING AS IS...DO NOT                    
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH GALE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTS              
SHOULD JUSTIFY CURRENT TIMING.                                                  
SHORT TERM. A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED             
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET AND GALES WILL               
BE LIKELY.                                                                      
LONG TERM: A STRONG GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED WED AFTERNOON                  
THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM              
WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002-              
     005-006.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-            
     016-029.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017-               
     030-032.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR             
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...STUREY                                                             
LONG TERM...NORTON                                                              
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/STUREY/NORTON                                                  
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1052 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS                 
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTENSIFY TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TOWARD                   
LABRADOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON                  
MONDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. INTENSIFYING                 
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WARM                   
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE                     
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
PRIMARY CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL BANDING SNOW OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY.              
WILL FOCUS ON RUC13 AND CARWRF WHICH ARE BEST SUITED TO HANDLE                  
THIS TYPE OF EVENT.                                                             
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW LOCAL REPORTS UP TO 10 INCHES OVER               
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS RUC13 SUGGESTING              
ADDITIONAL BANDING SNOW OVER SAME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
RUC13 BUFKIT ALSO INDICATING STRONG OMEGA. WITH SUBSTANTIAL                     
AMOUNTS ALREADY ON GROUND AND MORE BANDING INDICATED HAVE OPTED                 
TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST                
AREA BASED ON 24 HOUR TOTALS. HAVE INITIALIZED QPF WITH 12Z/RUC13               
WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. SNOW GRIDS GENERATED ON QPF GRIDS                 
BASED ON 10:1 RATIO.                                                            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON                
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS OF UP 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS                 
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO                    
MONITOR THINGS AND DECIDED WHETHER TO EXTEND OR NOT.                            
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT W/THE FAR NORTHERN                  
AREAS HANGING ONTO SOME LINGERING SNOW W/THE COLD NW FLOW COMING                
OFF THE ST. LAWRENCE. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM                     
DROPPING TOO FAR. USED THE GMOS NUMBERS AND RAISED THEM UP A FEW                
DEGS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND WIND.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY                
COLD WINDS MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS              
THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO             
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AIR              
IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP                  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING                     
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH                
THE MIDWEST WILL PULL A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY                   
SPREADING SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOULD                 
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY AS WARMER                  
AIR BEGINS SURGING IN FROM THE OCEAN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE                 
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES NORTH.                 
THE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN BRING STRONG               
SOUTH WINDS...RAIN AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S DOWNEAST AND 40S               
OVER THE NORTH. A WIND ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY WARNING MAY BE NEEDED              
FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY                   
NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF                 
ARE THEN INDICATING THAT A SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING UP FROM THE                  
SOUTHEAST MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT STALLS              
TO OUR EAST...AND POSSIBLY BRING SNOW ON THURSDAY TO EASTERN AREAS.             
FOR NOW ONLY GOING CHANCE SNOW NORTH AND LIKELY DOWNEAST ON                     
THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO. THE                 
END OF THE WEEK SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND COOL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
MVFR FOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AT TIMES TODAY W/IMPROVING                      
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY INTO THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL                 
BE FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES              
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: AS MENTIONED BELOW A GALE WARNING IS UP. EXPECT THE                  
WINDS TO COME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND               
THEN KICK TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BLENDED THE                  
NAM12 AND GFS W/SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS THIS                   
MORNING AS WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT                       
INITIALIZATION. DECIDED ON GUSTS HITTING 40 KT TONIGHT AS COLD NW               
FLOW COMES OVER THE WATERS. USED THE GFSSWAN TO START THE SEAS                  
OUT AS THEY WERE UP TO 6-7 FT AND THEN BLENDED THE WNAWAVE4 WHICH               
SHOWS SEAS FALL BACK THIS MORNING AND THEN BUILD AGAIN LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                                                         
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH               
MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW MOVING                   
NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH MONDAY                 
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT                    
LIKELY REACHING A STRONG GALE ON WEDNESDAY AND AN EXTENSIVE SOUTH               
FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 20 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-            
     005-006-011-016-029.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017-               
     030-032.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR             
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                      
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                       
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER                                                 
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
946 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES             
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY                 
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF             
THE CAROLINA COAST...PUSHING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY             
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND                  
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY                  
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION              
SHIELD AHEAD OF MID/UPR LVL DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT                 
EWRD ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RIDGING DEFORMATION AT LLVLS BTWN THE                
LOW E OF LAKE HURON AND THE WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST SE OF ILM IS                 
HAVING AN EFFECT ON LIMITING THE DEGREE/DEPTH OF VERTICAL ASCENT                
AND MOISTENING. THUS THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT...EVEN          
VERY LIGHT (DRIZZLE) AT TIMES GIVEN THE LACK OF FVRBL UVM/MOISTURE              
ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WHICH IN TURN LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF ICE                
SEEDING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH INTO THE LOWER MOIST LAYERS.                       
SO...BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP...TEMPS IN MOST                  
AREAS HAVE HAD A REAL DIFFICULT DROPPING TO THE WET BULB READINGS...            
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW MIX VS. ALL                 
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN A               
QUARTER INCH TOPS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED OR NON-PAVED SURFACES W OF               
I-95 WHERE THE ELEVATION CLIMBS TO ABOVE 200 FT.                                
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RUC (WHICH HAS DONE WELL THUS FAR WITH THIS             
SYSTEM) CONTINUES TO PIVOT THE AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIP E THROUGH THE               
FCST AREA. ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BECOME MORE N-S              
ORIENTED (VS. THE CURRENT NE-SW ORIENTATION) AS THE MID LVL TROUGH              
(DEFORMATION AXIS) BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. STILL A BIT                  
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT (LESS THAN HALF INCH) WET               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NRN NECK OF VA AND THE LOWER MD ERN               
SHORE. THIS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IN THAT REGION...AS             
SFC WET BULB TEMPS SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS           
THE FVRBL DYNAMICS/DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THESE                  
AREAS. ALSO...EXPECT A LONGER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL...                
GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION (NEG TILT) OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                  
THUS TRANSITION TOWARD N-S PRECIP AREAS (WHICH TENDS TO ALLOW THE               
PRECIP TO LINGER A WHILE LONGER). FOR NOW...BASED ON THE SFC LAYER              
WARMTH CURRENTLY (SFC TEMPS/WET BULB TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING)                
ALONG WITH ABOVE FREEZING GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN                 
FCST ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH               
PRESSURE REBUILDS IN FROM THE W. AGAIN MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
OVER MD/VA ERN SHORE SUN MORNING...WITH DRY/CLEARING CONDITIONS                 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SUN HIGH TEMPS LWR TO MID 40S WITH CAA LOWERING             
H85 TEMPS TO -10C TO -14C.                                                      
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS...SUST AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTS TO 30 MPH (35             
MPH FOR THE ERN SHRE...BELOW WIND ADVSRY) MID MORNING THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FA. WINDINESS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT             
FROM THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENGLAND COAST              
AND HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN MS VLY. RESULTANT WIND CHILL VALUES              
WILL BE FROM 25 NW TO 32 SE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.                           
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE                
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER IN MVG THE HIGH TO THE COAST BY MONDAY                   
MORNING WHILE THE NAM LAGS BEHIND...BUT SINCE THE GFS IS CURRENTLY              
DEPICTING THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH RATHER ACCURATELY...WILL STICK                
WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT THIS SOLN WOULD                
WARRANT. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BASED ON                   
LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEMES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR              
20S.                                                                            
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH              
TO GET TEMPS MUCH ABOVE THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40 RANGE IN THE                      
AFTN...ESP CONSIDERING THAT CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE                 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOME WEAK                    
ENERGY MVS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A SYSTEM MVG THROUGH THE CNTRL                 
PLAINS.                                                                         
RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM                    
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY. A GOOD OVERRUNNING               
PATTERN SETTING UP AT THAT TIME WILL MEAN LIKELY POPS FOR AT LEAST              
OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE                
FOR THE TIME PERIOD.                                                            
THE SFC LOW MVS INTO THE OH VALLEY BY WED MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN                
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE                  
WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING TUES NIGHT                
TO BE THAT COLD (MID 40S TO LWR 50S). CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO               
ERY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MVS THROUGH...LEFT POPS AT LIKELY FOR                
NOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND ADDED MENTION OF AN ISOLD TS.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO HV DIFFICULTY RESOLVING                        
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. AS A                 
RESULT...MODELS ONCE AGAIN HV DIVERGENT SOLNS IN THE THU-SAT TIME               
FRAME.                                                                          
DEEPENING UPR LOW WL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE                 
MID-ATLANTIC AS IT RIDES FROM SERN TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON WED.               
DECENT AGREEMENT NOW AMONGST 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/EURO IN BRINGING               
THIS FEATURE UP THE SERN COAST THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LO                  
PRES AREA LKS TO TRACK NE JUST OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. IT                  
APPEARS AS IF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER THAN PRVSLY EXPECTED...WITH                
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THR FRONT ON THU. THIS MAY                  
MAKE FOR SOME P-TYPE ISSUES FOR THU. HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF MODEL                
CONTINUITY RUN TO RUN...WL KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE AND STICK WITH                  
LIQUID PHASE PCPN FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO AWAIT BETTER MODEL                    
AGREEMENT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE W DURING FRI...WITH UPR FLOW              
BECOMING DRIER (QUASI-ZONAL) LTR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL              
TAF SITES. EXPECT EVEN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MVS                  
THROUGH. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH                
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY COULD GET AS LOW AS               
1500 TO 2000FT AT TIMES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN AS A                 
PREDOMINANT OR TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. INCLUDED RAIN IN THE ORF AND                
PHF TAFS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AT ECG                 
AND SBY (ALTHOUGH AT SBY THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW JUST                 
BEFORE MIDNIGHT). RAIN CLEARS OUT OF ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY                     
MORNING AND CLOUDS ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW SO LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES               
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING HOWEVER AND BE                     
PRETTY GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TURNED TO THE S/SE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF STRG COLD               
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT INHERITED                    
HEADLINES AS IS...WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING IN EARNEST AFTER 06Z                 
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CAROLINA             
COASTAL PLAIN TOMORROW.                                                         
H85 TEMPS PLUNGE TO -11 TO -13C BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVENG WHICH SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. NAM/GFS               
BUFKIT DATA SHOWING ADEQUATE MOMENTUM XFER TO YIELD WND GUSTS IN                
THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW AFTN INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW                  
INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. H85-92 WINDS                
PROGGED AT 35-40KTS NORTH AND 30-35KTS SOUTH. WL ADD WORDING FOR                
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER LAND AREAS TOMORROW. OTW...SMALL                
CRAFT FLAGS REMAIN FLYING FOR ERLY SUNDAY MRNG...WITH GALE WRNGS                
(FOR GUSTS) OVER THE BAY AND VA/MD CSTL WATERS IN EFFECT FOR SUN                
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
WNDS/WAVES MORE MARGINAL FARTHER SOUTH AND IN THE BAY BUT                       
CONSIDERING HOW COLD IT WILL BE HAVE DECIDED TO GO A BIT STRONGER               
THAN THE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS. SEAS WILL NOT BUILD TOO HIGH GIVEN                
OFFSHORE WNW WIND DIRECTION (MAINLY 5-6 FT...BUT UP TO 7 FT                     
NORTH). SEAS/WINDS SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY EVENG INTO MON MRNG...AND               
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                 
     ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656.                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-654-            
     656.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     ANZ633-658.                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-              
     652.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BAJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BAJ                                                                
LONG TERM...MAM                                                                 
AVIATION...JEF                                                                  
MARINE...JEF                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
750 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A GENERAL             
WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES JET                    
TRACKING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALSO TO NOTE IS              
AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE FLOW...A               
TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND A FEW SHRTWVS WERE MOVING             
THROUGH ERN ND AND SRN MN. OVER UPPER MI...DESPITE THE WNW                      
FLOW...500MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS              
OVER THE CWA HAS MOVED OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. THESE HEIGHT RISES HAVE            
RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE...PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF MI...LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.              
DRY AIR AND THE SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH)...HAVE             
HELPED TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.                   
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...                  
THOUGH...WITH 850MB READINGS OF -15C AT GRB...-20C AT CWPL AND AT               
APX. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING              
ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION                   
OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DPVA FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS CROSSING ND/MN. CLOUDS THICKEN UP THE FARTHER WEST YOU                  
GO...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING -N FROM NW MN             
INTO WRN WI. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS RETURNS FARTHER TO THE NE INTO               
FAR WRN UPPER MI...BUT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THAT             
HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE            
GROUND. THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE TIGHT BACK AT            
12Z...WITH BIS AND ABR SHOWING -6C TEMP/0C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT               
850MB COMPARED TO THE -13C TEMP/21C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT MPX.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
TROUGH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES DOWN              
INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED             
TO BE OVER UTAH AND CO WHILE THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST INTO WEST                 
TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW            
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE                    
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...A FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TURN MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW CHANGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHRTWVS IN ND/MN              
MOVE TO THE ESE INTO THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT...SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA FORCING FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS...MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z SINCE THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST                    
700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. A FEW TENTHS OF                      
ACCUMULATION AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION. AFTER                    
06Z...DNVA IS INDICATED TO CROSS UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHRTWVS. SOME MORE WARM ADVECTION SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z              
AS WELL...STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL               
WI. THIS SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT JET AT 250MB PROGGED OVER              
UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY...THE UPPER              
JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PLACING UPPER MI IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION AND INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN             
TO WARM FROM -14 TO -16C AT 06Z MON TO -8 TO -10C AT 00Z TUE.                   
THEREFORE...THE -SN THAT DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT               
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS AGAIN DO              
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT THAT                     
STRONG...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COULD PICK UP AN               
INCH. HAVE RAISED POPS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.             
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE                  
EXPECTED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND. THE CURRENT SFC RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE             
CWA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY            
FLOW. SINCE 850MB TEMPS REMAIN COLD TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZES WILL               
DEVELOP OFF LOWER MI THAT CONVERGE ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SINGLE             
BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. TRENDS FROM 06Z RUNS AND NOW INTO             
THE 12Z RUNS FROM THE NAM...GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW AND RUC 13 SUGGEST              
THE BAND MOSTLY IMPACTS MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...SINCE THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY SW. WINDS BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WHICH MEANS               
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD WITH TIME...BUT LIKELY            
NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN FAR EASTERN DELTA AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND REGIONAL            
CANADIAN THAT THE BAND COULD FALL APART. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS              
IDEA YET...AND STAY WITH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN/RUC 13 THAT KEEP             
IT TOGETHER. NONETHELESS...SINCE MORE OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO                
STAY OVER MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THIS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW              
THAT COULD HAVE FELL IN OUR CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS OUT              
OF THE BAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ARE ONLY UP TO 0.20 OF AN                     
INCH...WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS THAT SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON                
AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 1 MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH MAYBE             
4 INCHES. AGAIN..THIS ASSUMES THE BAND CAN STAY IN ONE SPOT. HAVE               
DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH AND NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORY...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT OF THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER OR STAYING IN ONE              
SPOT.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...WITH FIRST MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH -SN TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER                  
STRATUS DECK. RAISED LOWS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ON              
MONDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB               
INTO THE 20S. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH HEAT            
FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
LONGER TERM 00Z TUE ONWARD...                                                   
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SE            
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. 00Z TUE. THERE IS            
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST AND AFFECT THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINING              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MON NIGHT WITH THE CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT              
BY 12Z TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERN CWA IS ON             
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM               
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM THEN SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB                  
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING ON WED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AGAIN. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES 00Z TUE WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. SOUTHERN CWA              
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR SOMETHING OUT FOR MON             
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MENOMINEE SEEING ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW             
AT THAT TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AIR IS COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR LAKE             
EFFECT AND WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS BRINGING SNOW TO THE              
AREA...LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SYSTEM SNOW TO THE SOUTH.               
EVEN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MIGHT NEED ADVISORIES FOR COMBO             
OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYSTEM SNOW. DO NOT THINK LAKE EFFECT WILL GET               
OUT OF HAND EVEN WITH THE NORTH WIND FLOW THAT DEVELOPS EVEN THOUGH             
IT IS COLD ENOUGH. MAIN FACTOR IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM A COLD              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS DRY AIR WOULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS              
AND COVERAGE.                                                                   
LIFT AND MOISTURE THEN RETURNS ON WED AGAIN ON THE I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IN                
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS FAST AS IT DOES ON WED...AND WILL NOT USE                
THIS MODEL AFTER WED. WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THIS CLIPPER BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA            
WED NIGHT AND THU INSTEAD AND THEY ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD AND               
WILL USE THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM IN WED NIGHT AND THU                    
INSTEAD.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU WHICH LINGERS THROUGH SUN. THINGS WILL            
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH GETS HUNG UP IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE               
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING            
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR EVERYWHERE WITH EITHER               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT...OR COMBO OF THEM BOTH BRINGING             
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SEE ANY REAL SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD            
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES THE SAME WHICH WERE             
NEAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO STAY AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TO LOWER CLOUDS AND                 
VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES BASED             
ON UPSTREAM OBS. SNOW SHOULD END OR TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY                    
MIDNIGHT BUT LOOK FOR MVFR STRATUS DECK TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY.             
BY MON AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE IN                
FROM THE WEST...LOWERING VSBYS TO IFR AND PERHAPS CIGS COULD DROP TO            
IFR RANGE AT KSAW IN UPSLOPE SE FLOW.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HEAD EAST                      
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.            
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES ACROSS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS             
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE             
TO 30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE            
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR ON WED. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KT ON            
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF CANADA INTO              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
417 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A GENERAL             
WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES JET                    
TRACKING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALSO TO NOTE IS              
AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE FLOW...A               
TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND A FEW SHRTWVS WERE MOVING             
THROUGH ERN ND AND SRN MN. OVER UPPER MI...DESPITE THE WNW                      
FLOW...500MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS              
OVER THE CWA HAS MOVED OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. THESE HEIGHT RISES HAVE            
RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE...PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF MI...LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.              
DRY AIR AND THE SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH)...HAVE             
HELPED TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.                   
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...                  
THOUGH...WITH 850MB READINGS OF -15C AT GRB...-20C AT CWPL AND AT               
APX. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING              
ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION                   
OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DPVA FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS CROSSING ND/MN. CLOUDS THICKEN UP THE FARTHER WEST YOU                  
GO...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING -N FROM NW MN             
INTO WRN WI. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS RETURNS FARTHER TO THE NE INTO               
FAR WRN UPPER MI...BUT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THAT             
HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE            
GROUND. THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE TIGHT BACK AT            
12Z...WITH BIS AND ABR SHOWING -6C TEMP/0C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT               
850MB COMPARED TO THE -13C TEMP/21C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT MPX.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
TROUGH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES DOWN              
INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED             
TO BE OVER UTAH AND CO WHILE THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST INTO WEST                 
TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW            
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE                    
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...A FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TURN MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW CHANGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHRTWVS IN ND/MN              
MOVE TO THE ESE INTO THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT...SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA FORCING FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS...MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z SINCE THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST                    
700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. A FEW TENTHS OF                      
ACCUMULATION AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION. AFTER                    
06Z...DNVA IS INDICATED TO CROSS UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHRTWVS. SOME MORE WARM ADVECTION SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z              
AS WELL...STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL               
WI. THIS SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT JET AT 250MB PROGGED OVER              
UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY...THE UPPER              
JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PLACING UPPER MI IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION AND INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN             
TO WARM FROM -14 TO -16C AT 06Z MON TO -8 TO -10C AT 00Z TUE.                   
THEREFORE...THE -SN THAT DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT               
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS AGAIN DO              
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT THAT                     
STRONG...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COULD PICK UP AN               
INCH. HAVE RAISED POPS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.             
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE                  
EXPECTED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND. THE CURRENT SFC RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE             
CWA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY            
FLOW. SINCE 850MB TEMPS REMAIN COLD TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZES WILL               
DEVELOP OFF LOWER MI THAT CONVERGE ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SINGLE             
BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. TRENDS FROM 06Z RUNS AND NOW INTO             
THE 12Z RUNS FROM THE NAM...GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW AND RUC 13 SUGGEST              
THE BAND MOSTLY IMPACTS MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...SINCE THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY SW. WINDS BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WHICH MEANS               
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD WITH TIME...BUT LIKELY            
NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN FAR EASTERN DELTA AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND REGIONAL            
CANADIAN THAT THE BAND COULD FALL APART. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS              
IDEA YET...AND STAY WITH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN/RUC 13 THAT KEEP             
IT TOGETHER. NONETHELESS...SINCE MORE OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO                
STAY OVER MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THIS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW              
THAT COULD HAVE FELL IN OUR CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS OUT              
OF THE BAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ARE ONLY UP TO 0.20 OF AN                     
INCH...WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS THAT SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON                
AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 1 MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH MAYBE             
4 INCHES. AGAIN..THIS ASSUMES THE BAND CAN STAY IN ONE SPOT. HAVE               
DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH AND NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORY...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT OF THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER OR STAYING IN ONE              
SPOT.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...WITH FIRST MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH -SN TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER                  
STRATUS DECK. RAISED LOWS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ON              
MONDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB               
INTO THE 20S. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH HEAT            
FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
LONGER TERM 00Z TUE ONWARD...                                                   
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SE            
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. 00Z TUE. THERE IS            
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST AND AFFECT THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINING              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MON NIGHT WITH THE CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT              
BY 12Z TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERN CWA IS ON             
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM               
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM THEN SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB                  
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING ON WED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AGAIN. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES 00Z TUE WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. SOUTHERN CWA              
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR SOMETHING OUT FOR MON             
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MENOMINEE SEEING ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW             
AT THAT TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AIR IS COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR LAKE             
EFFECT AND WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS BRINGING SNOW TO THE              
AREA...LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SYSTEM SNOW TO THE SOUTH.               
EVEN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MIGHT NEED ADVISORIES FOR COMBO             
OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYSTEM SNOW. DO NOT THINK LAKE EFFECT WILL GET               
OUT OF HAND EVEN WITH THE NORTH WIND FLOW THAT DEVELOPS EVEN THOUGH             
IT IS COLD ENOUGH. MAIN FACTOR IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM A COLD              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS DRY AIR WOULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS              
AND COVERAGE.                                                                   
LIFT AND MOISTURE THEN RETURNS ON WED AGAIN ON THE I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IN                
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS FAST AS IT DOES ON WED...AND WILL NOT USE                
THIS MODEL AFTER WED. WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THIS CLIPPER BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA            
WED NIGHT AND THU INSTEAD AND THEY ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD AND               
WILL USE THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM IN WED NIGHT AND THU                    
INSTEAD.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU WHICH LINGERS THROUGH SUN. THINGS WILL            
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH GETS HUNG UP IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE               
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING            
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR EVERYWHERE WITH EITHER               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT...OR COMBO OF THEM BOTH BRINGING             
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SEE ANY REAL SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD            
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES THE SAME WHICH WERE             
NEAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO STAY AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO EXITING BOTH TAF SITES...AND               
SHOULD DO SO IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS AS FLOW CONTINUES BACKING TO THE            
SW. TO THE WEST...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM MN AND               
WI. FURTHER INTO MN IS SOME -SN ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS. BOTH THE               
MVFR CLOUDS AND -SN WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...               
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND INITIAL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP                 
VSBYS VFR. MVFR STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. IN               
FACT...IT SHOULD BE ENFORCED LATER MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR MOVING            
IN PRODUCES SOME -SN...ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE. -SN EXPECTED TO                   
MOSTLY IMPACT SAW...THOUGH. HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR FOR NOW...BUT                
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS HAPPENING. UNCERTAINTY AND THE LATE TIME              
THAT THE SNOW OCCURS IN THE FORECAST PRECLUDES ANY MVFR MENTION TO              
THE VSBYS AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HEAD EAST                      
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.            
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES ACROSS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS             
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE             
TO 30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE            
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR ON WED. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KT ON            
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF CANADA INTO              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1236 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE... (ISSUED AT 952 AM)                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BROKEN UP              
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND              
SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER SEEN ON THE KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND DRY              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNING            
FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES EARLY. REST OF THE                  
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE FORECAST LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. 06Z RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND MAY IMPACT MOSTLY               
MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW             
BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE WATCH MAY OR MAY NOT            
PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND KEEPS MOVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE               
06Z NAM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVAILABLE FETCH                 
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRITIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPIGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT                     
OCCURRING ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER            
TO WI BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW                
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI             
BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS              
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO               
MONDAY. H85 TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING            
IN FM THE WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
ALTHOUGH EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING               
LAND BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS              
FCST A DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT.              
WILL SAY THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR            
MI...AND SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT                
PREFERRED AS SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO             
THE LWR MI SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
OVR FAR SE CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE.                                                          
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO EXITING BOTH TAF SITES...AND               
SHOULD DO SO IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS AS FLOW CONTINUES BACKING TO THE            
SW. TO THE WEST...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM MN AND               
WI. FURTHER INTO MN IS SOME -SN ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS. BOTH THE               
MVFR CLOUDS AND -SN WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...               
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND INITIAL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP                 
VSBYS VFR. MVFR STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. IN               
FACT...IT SHOULD BE ENFORCED LATER MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR MOVING            
IN PRODUCES SOME -SN...ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE. -SN EXPECTED TO                   
MOSTLY IMPACT SAW...THOUGH. HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR FOR NOW...BUT                
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS HAPPENING. UNCERTAINTY AND THE LATE TIME              
THAT THE SNOW OCCURS IN THE FORECAST PRECLUDES ANY MVFR MENTION TO              
THE VSBYS AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
952 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BROKEN UP              
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND              
SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER SEEN ON THE KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND DRY              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNING            
FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES EARLY. REST OF THE                  
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE FORECAST LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. 06Z RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND MAY IMPACT MOSTLY               
MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW             
BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE WATCH MAY OR MAY NOT            
PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND KEEPS MOVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE               
06Z NAM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVAILABLE FETCH                 
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRITIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPIGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT                     
OCCURRING ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER            
TO WI BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW                
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI             
BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS              
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO               
MONDAY. H85 TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING            
IN FM THE WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
ALTHOUGH EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING               
LAND BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS              
FCST A DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT.              
WILL SAY THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR            
MI...AND SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT                
PREFERRED AS SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO             
THE LWR MI SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
OVR FAR SE CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE.                                                          
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT SC CIGS TO GRDLY ERODE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/            
DRY AIRMASS FM THE W THAT IS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB. MVFR CIGS WL                
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WLY WIND COMPONENT.               
CLDS WL THICKEN WITH CIGS FALLING TO HI END MVFR RANGE WITH APRCH OF            
WEAK LO PRES TROF TNGT. SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS TO THE             
S...SUSPECT THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WL NOT SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY             
FOR ANY SGNFT SN/VSBY RESTRICTION AT EITHER SAW OR CMX.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPEGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVIALIABLE FETCH                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRETIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPEGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT OCCURING            
ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO WI                
BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.               
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS BECOME               
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. H85               
TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE              
WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH                 
EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING LAND                   
BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FCST A            
DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL SAY            
THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR MI...AND            
SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT PREFERRED AS            
SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO THE LWR MI               
SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVR FAR SE            
CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR            
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO               
LUCE.                                                                           
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT SC CIGS TO GRDLY ERODE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/            
DRY AIRMASS FM THE W THAT IS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB. MVFR CIGS WL                
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WLY WIND COMPONENT.               
CLDS WL THICKEN WITH CIGS FALLING TO HI END MVFR RANGE WITH APRCH OF            
WEAK LO PRES TROF TNGT. SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS TO THE             
S...SUSPECT THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WL NOT SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY             
FOR ANY SGNFT SN/VSBY RESTRICTION AT EITHER SAW OR CMX.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-085.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPEGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVIALIABLE FETCH                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRETIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPEGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT OCCURING            
ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO WI                
BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.               
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS BECOME               
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. H85               
TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE              
WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH                 
EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING LAND                   
BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FCST A            
DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL SAY            
THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR MI...AND            
SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT PREFERRED AS            
SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO THE LWR MI               
SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVR FAR SE            
CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR            
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO               
LUCE.                                                                           
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUN                
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
WINDS BACKING NW AT KSAW WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS EAST                  
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS             
BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP SKIES VFR               
INTO SUN EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUN                
EVENING WHICH COULD LOWER VBSYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-085.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1218 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ALGER                
AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND PUT UP WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO SUNDAY                
MORNING AS STRONG NNW WINDS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME WITH                
BUILDING RDG FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL CONV TO FOCUS            
HEAVIER LES BANDS INTO THESE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WIND            
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING               
AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.                                             
ALSO DROPPED LES ADVISORY FOR BARAGA AS DRIER AIR HAS REALLY                    
DIMINISHED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
REST OF FCST STILL OF TRACK SO DIDN`T MAKE ANY OTHER BIG                        
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUN                
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
WINDS BACKING NW AT KSAW WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS EAST                  
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS             
BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP SKIES VFR               
INTO SUN EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUN                
EVENING WHICH COULD LOWER VBSYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1043 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ALGER                
AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND PUT UP WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO SUNDAY                
MORNING AS STRONG NNW WINDS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME WITH                
BUILDING RDG FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL CONV TO FOCUS            
HEAVIER LES BANDS INTO THESE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WIND            
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING               
AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.                                             
ALSO DROPPED LES ADVISORY FOR BARAGA AS DRIER AIR HAS REALLY                    
DIMINISHED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
REST OF FCST STILL OF TRACK SO DIDN`T MAKE ANY OTHER BIG                        
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN.                                                                        
NNW WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS                       
AT KSAW THIS EVENING AS THEY REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF INTENSE LES                  
BANDS. WINDS BACKING NW BY LATE EVENING WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VSBY TO            
VFR. WINDS BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP              
SKIES VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
442 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BLUSTERY                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP IN ITS WAKE. WOULD                  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR AND                
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AS BANDS MOVE THROUGH.              
THERE IS A CHANCE VSBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO              
INCLUDE EVEN IN A TEMPO GROUP ATTM. TONIGHT...A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW             
FROM LAKE NIPIGON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BECOME STATIONARY            
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SAW...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE             
LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM MN...WITH VSBYS             
REACHING VFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL REACH VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE DRIER AIR AND WINDS BACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SW              
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                       
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1242 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS OF RADAR IMAGERY. ARCTIC/POLAR FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH UPPER              
MI ABOUT AN HOUR TO TWO FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT               
WORKS OUT ALRIGHT AS THE STRONGER WINDS SEEM TO BE LAGGING THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT BY AN HOUR. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE            
AT OUR OFFICE...IN THE CITY OF MARQUETTE AND ELSEWHERE THAT HAVE                
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE              
FRONT. A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO THE                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HAVE BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO            
EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY SNOW BURST ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE              
OF THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE SETTING UP...BUT ARE NOT ALL               
THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO                  
INCREASE UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY RECEIVED A                 
REPORT OF 8 INCHES SO FAR IN IRONWOOD AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.                
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SO THE WARNING FOR THE FAR WEST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY AREA OF            
CONCERN THAT IS NOT PANNING OUT TOO WELL IS THE BLIZZARD WARNING OF             
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BLIZZARD                     
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY AT P59...BUT THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY                 
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL CONVERGENT BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH                
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE             
NOT CONVERGENT AT ALL...AND LIKELY THE ONLY AREA SEEING HEAVIER SNOW            
IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (I.E. DELAWARE AND                    
PHOENIX). WEBCAMS SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE                   
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING...IN CASE SNOW TRIES TO PICK UP A BIT THIS               
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER AIR WILL              
ALSO BE DRIER...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS               
THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND KINL.                   
UPDATED GRID FORECAST AND WINTER STORM STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.              
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ZFP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 AM EST)                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BLUSTERY                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP IN ITS WAKE. WOULD                  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR AND                
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AS BANDS MOVE THROUGH.              
THERE IS A CHANCE VSBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO              
INCLUDE EVEN IN A TEMPO GROUP ATTM. TONIGHT...A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW             
FROM LAKE NIPIGON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BECOME STATIONARY            
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SAW...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE             
LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM MN...WITH VSBYS             
REACHING VFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL REACH VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE DRIER AIR AND WINDS BACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SW              
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                        
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS OF RADAR IMAGERY. ARCTIC/POLAR FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH UPPER              
MI ABOUT AN HOUR TO TWO FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT               
WORKS OUT ALRIGHT AS THE STRONGER WINDS SEEM TO BE LAGGING THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT BY AN HOUR. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE            
AT OUR OFFICE...IN THE CITY OF MARQUETTE AND ELSEWHERE THAT HAVE                
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE              
FRONT. A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO THE                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HAVE BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO            
EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY SNOW BURST ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE              
OF THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE SETTING UP...BUT ARE NOT ALL               
THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO                  
INCREASE UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY RECEIVED A                 
REPORT OF 8 INCHES SO FAR IN IRONWOOD AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.                
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SO THE WARNING FOR THE FAR WEST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY AREA OF            
CONCERN THAT IS NOT PANNING OUT TOO WELL IS THE BLIZZARD WARNING OF             
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BLIZZARD                     
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY AT P59...BUT THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY                 
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL CONVERGENT BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH                
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE             
NOT CONVERGENT AT ALL...AND LIKELY THE ONLY AREA SEEING HEAVIER SNOW            
IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (I.E. DELAWARE AND                    
PHOENIX). WEBCAMS SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE                   
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING...IN CASE SNOW TRIES TO PICK UP A BIT THIS               
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER AIR WILL              
ALSO BE DRIER...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS               
THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND KINL.                   
UPDATED GRID FORECAST AND WINTER STORM STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.              
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ZFP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 AM EST)                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT ON VERGE OF PUSHING THROUGH KEWEENAW. AS THE FRONT                 
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY                         
AFTN...EXPECT PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND BLSN AS WINDS                
SHIFT SHARPLY TO STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN/BLSN WILL                
OCCUR AT BOTH SITES...ALREADY HAPPENING AT CMX...AND DUE INTO SAW               
EARLY THIS AFTN. EVENTUALLY...IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED...BUT                
THIS MAY TAKE A WHILE AS STRONG WINDS/BLSN HANG ON INTO THE EARLY               
EVENING. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX AND TO MVFR AT KSAW                 
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN              
TO DIMINISH...AND WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                        
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
645 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT ON VERGE OF PUSHING THROUGH KEWEENAW. AS THE FRONT                 
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTN...EXPECT           
PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND BLSN AS WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO             
STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN/BLSN WILL OCCUR AT BOTH                   
SITES...ALREADY HAPPENING AT CMX...AND DUE INTO SAW EARLY THIS AFTN.            
EVENTUALLY...IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED...BUT THIS MAY TAKE A                 
WHILE AS STRONG WINDS/BLSN HANG ON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FURTHER              
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX AND TO MVFR AT KSAW SHOULD OCCUR LATER               
TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN TO DIMINISH...AND               
WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                 
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.                                                   
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                      
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                   
     LSZ248>251-265>267.                                                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW PRES TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT             
THRU THE MORNING WILL BRING -SN TO KCMX/KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE              
LOW...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP S ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BRINGING A PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND            
BLSN AS WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN                 
SHSN/BLSN SHOULD OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HRS AT BOTH                           
SITES...BEGINNING AT KCMX EARLY/MID MORNING AND AT KSAW LATE                    
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED MID TO LATE            
AFTN. DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX            
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN TO                  
DIMINISH...AND WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                 
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.                                                   
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING              
     FOR MIZ001-003.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY               
     FOR MIZ005.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY              
     FOR MIZ013-014.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                   
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING                 
     FOR LSZ263-264.                                                            
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ242>245.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1130 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                                
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER                 
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING AND            
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE ENSEMBLE            
UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SNW SPRDG INTO WC WI WITH A DMNSHG TREND NOTED            
IN W MN.  WDSPRD SNW WL GIVE EACH TAF SITE ABT A 4 HR PRD OF VSBY               
DOWN TO AOB 1SM WITH ARND AN INCH OF ACCUM. FLUFFY NATURE OF SNW AND            
SM HEAVIER BANDS WL YIELD A FEW 2 INCH TOTALS.  LGT SNW WL LINGER               
FOR A FEW HRS AFT HEAVIER ACCUMULATING PRD.  MOIST LOW LVLS WL                  
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVRNITE. UPSTREAM VORT IN BC WL DIVE SE                
NEXT 24 HRS GENERATING ANOTHER SNW EVENT WITH NAM/NGM TRENDING                  
FARTHER N WHICH WUD PUT ACCUMULATING SNW AT MOST TAF SITES.  SRPD               
SNW INTO W MN TAF SITES BTWN 12Z AND 15Z AND 15Z TO 18Z RMDR SITES.             
NAM PROGGED SNDGS SHW SM POTENTIAL OF -ZL/-FZRG MAINLY RWF BY 12Z               
WITH NOSE ABV FRZG ARND 800 MB...A CONCERN FOR NXT SET OF                       
TAFS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAP/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
944 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...MOVED START TIME FOR WWA TO 18Z. LES PLUME HAS DEVELOPED              
WITH VIS LOWERING TO 1-2SM FROM TWM TO BFW. LATEST RUC13/NAM12                  
SUPPORTS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTH SHORE.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
UPDATE...LATEST DLH 88D INDICATES A MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE                   
..THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR                  
FRENCH RIVER TO TWM VICINITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW/SKY                  
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES PLUME. USING NAM12 SFC/925H                        
WINDS/MSTR FCST... AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTH               
SHORE BY 18Z. LATEST RUC13 925/85H WIND FCST SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR                
SHOULD ALLOW INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF BAND AND ADDITIONAL BANDS BY              
LATE MORNING. RUC13 QPF IS MINIMAL IN RESPECT TO LOW LVL DRY AIR                
HOWEVER IT SEEMS ACTIVITY ALREADY STARTED AND RUC MAY BE PLAYING CATCHUP.       
MAY NEED TO PUSH ADVISORY TIME AHEAD.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.                               
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH               
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW AND COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS                 
THIS MORNING...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. DEPARTING RIDGE                
HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE                         
APPROACHING CLIPPER FROM MAKING INROADS INTO OUR CWA.                           
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS SHOULD               
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH                  
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 13Z-15Z IN OUR FAR                    
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGE PASSING OFF THE               
EAST MAY HELP KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NE               
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO INCREASED POPS MORE SLOWLY IN                
THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH                  
THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NOT                   
EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES...WITH                  
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY. SNOW CHANCES                
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.                   
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                         
SHORE...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
MAY DROP 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC-85H RH REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH 21Z                  
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY...WHILE WINDS IN THIS                  
LAYER TURN SOUTHERLY...AND 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND -16C...THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT                 
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND                  
5000 FT. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.               
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE BRUSHED                
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAKE                  
ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN POPS FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.                               
.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                               
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                  
DURING SUCCEEDING RUNS. THE EUROPEAN AND NAM SEEM TO BE IN                      
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE SLOWER...DRIER AND COLDER GFS SEEMS TO BE               
CLOSEST BUT TO HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING HERE...AT LEAST AT                
LOW LEVELS. THE GFS NEEDS TO BE CORRECTED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH.               
WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...A STORM TRACK OF               
REALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING CLIPPERS THROUGH OUR                    
AREA...ONE EXCEPTION DID GO THROUGH HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO                   
ONLY BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER CLIPPERS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A SERIES OF                  
HIGHS TRACKS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. THE CLIPPERS ADD THEIR                  
STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHERN STORM SERIES. THE HIGHS HAVE A TENDENCY                
TO BOTH BUILD TEMPORARY RIDGES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN                 
THEY ARE TO OUR WEST...THEN PUT A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH                 
AND OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER                  
MODELS...TAKE THAT NORTH-POKING RIDGE OUT MUCH TOO FAST AND                     
ALSO...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...CARRY TOO MUCH                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ANY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WHAT HAS                  
BEEN HAPPENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN DURING THE COMING                  
WEEK...IS WHEN WE HAVE THE RIDGING NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA...THE                
MODELS ARE ABOUT 5C TOO WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AND AS MUCH AS 15C                
TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE                 
OVER US...EVEN MORE THAN OVER CANADA AND MUCH MORE THAN OVER                    
ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AOB -30C IN MANY                
PLACES THIS MORNING FOR EXAMPLE...ANCHOR THE RIDGE IN PLACE                     
RESULTING IN FIRST...UPSTREAM CLOUDS REMAINING OUT OF OUR AREA                  
FOR AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AND...MOST               
IMPORTANTLY...THE RIDGE...ANCHORED OVER THE BITTERLY COLD IRON                  
RANGE AND RAINY RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINS A NORTH GRADIENT OVER                  
THE STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORE                 
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY...PERSISTED                
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW. AGAIN...WE ANCPT                
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. WE LIKE THE GFS LOWER THICKNESSES AND                 
FURTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR...AT LEAST ON THIS 07/00Z RUN.                  
THOUGH THE GFS...AS USUAL...HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER US...ITS                 
CLIPPER TRACK HAS BEEN REASONABLE. SO...WE ARE GOING COLD AND                   
DRY...AND ANCPT SERIOUS SNOW SQUALLS ANYTIME AN ONSHORE FLOW                    
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PRIND CLDNS WL RMN W OF AREA AND SNW SQLS WL RMN OVER LK SUPR                   
DURG THE MRNG. MID/HI CLDNS WL INCRS FM W TO E DURG AFTN... WITH                
CONDS DTRTG TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR IN LGT SNW FM W TO E LT THIS                  
AFTN THRUT THIS EVE. AN ONSHR FLO TO THE N SHR WL RESULT IN MLIFR               
IN LCLY INTS SNW SHWRS AND SNW SQLS BGNG LT AFTN AND CONTG THRUT                
TNGT WHEN WNDS WL VEER. SNW SHWRS WL BCM ISOLD...BUT WITH A                     
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FRZG DRZL MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  12   6  19   2 /  70  70  20  20                                           
INL  11   1  16  -6 /  60  50  10  10                                           
BRD  13   7  22   5 /  80  50  20  10                                           
HYR  14   6  24   5 /  70  80  20  20                                           
ASX  14   6  24   9 /  40  70  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN                 
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN                        
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
844 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...LATEST DLH 88D INDICATES A MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE                  
...THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR                 
FRENCH RIVER TO TWM VICINITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW/SKY                  
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES PLUME. USING NAM12 SFC/925H                        
WINDS/MSTR FCST... AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTH               
SHORE BY 18Z. LATEST RUC13 925/85H WIND FCST SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR                
SHOULD ALLOW INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF BAND AND ADDITIONAL BANDS BY              
LATE MORNING. RUC13 QPF IS MINIMAL IN RESPECT TO LOW LVL DRY AIR                
HOWEVER IT SEEMS ACTIVITY ALREADY STARTED AND RUC MAY BE PLAYING CATCHUP.       
MAY NEED TO PUSH ADVISORY TIME AHEAD.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.                               
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH               
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW AND COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS                 
THIS MORNING...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. DEPARTING RIDGE                
HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE                         
APPROACHING CLIPPER FROM MAKING INROADS INTO OUR CWA.                           
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS SHOULD               
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH                  
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 13Z-15Z IN OUR FAR                    
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGE PASSING OFF THE               
EAST MAY HELP KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NE               
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO INCREASED POPS MORE SLOWLY IN                
THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH                  
THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NOT                   
EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES...WITH                  
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY. SNOW CHANCES                
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.                   
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                         
SHORE...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
MAY DROP 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC-85H RH REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH 21Z                  
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY...WHILE WINDS IN THIS                  
LAYER TURN SOUTHERLY...AND 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND -16C...THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT                 
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND                  
5000 FT. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.               
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE BRUSHED                
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAKE                  
ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN POPS FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.                               
..EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                  
DURING SUCCEEDING RUNS. THE EUROPEAN AND NAM SEEM TO BE IN                      
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE SLOWER...DRIER AND COLDER GFS SEEMS TO BE               
CLOSEST BUT TO HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING HERE...AT LEAST AT                
LOW LEVELS. THE GFS NEEDS TO BE CORRECTED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH.               
WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...A STORM TRACK OF               
REALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING CLIPPERS THROUGH OUR                    
AREA...ONE EXCEPTION DID GO THROUGH HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO                   
ONLY BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER CLIPPERS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A SERIES OF                  
HIGHS TRACKS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. THE CLIPPERS ADD THEIR                  
STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHERN STORM SERIES. THE HIGHS HAVE A TENDENCY                
TO BOTH BUILD TEMPORARY RIDGES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN                 
THEY ARE TO OUR WEST...THEN PUT A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH                 
AND OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER                  
MODELS...TAKE THAT NORTH-POKING RIDGE OUT MUCH TOO FAST AND                     
ALSO...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...CARRY TOO MUCH                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ANY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WHAT HAS                  
BEEN HAPPENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN DURING THE COMING                  
WEEK...IS WHEN WE HAVE THE RIDGING NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA...THE                
MODELS ARE ABOUT 5C TOO WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AND AS MUCH AS 15C                
TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE                 
OVER US...EVEN MORE THAN OVER CANADA AND MUCH MORE THAN OVER                    
ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AOB -30C IN MANY                
PLACES THIS MORNING FOR EXAMPLE...ANCHOR THE RIDGE IN PLACE                     
RESULTING IN FIRST...UPSTREAM CLOUDS REMAINING OUT OF OUR AREA                  
FOR AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AND...MOST               
IMPORTANTLY...THE RIDGE...ANCHORED OVER THE BITTERLY COLD IRON                  
RANGE AND RAINY RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINS A NORTH GRADIENT OVER                  
THE STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORE                 
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY...PERSISTED                
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW. AGAIN...WE ANCPT                
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. WE LIKE THE GFS LOWER THICKNESSES AND                 
FURTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR...AT LEAST ON THIS 07/00Z RUN.                  
THOUGH THE GFS...AS USUAL...HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER US...ITS                 
CLIPPER TRACK HAS BEEN REASONABLE. SO...WE ARE GOING COLD AND                   
DRY...AND ANCPT SERIOUS SNOW SQUALLS ANYTIME AN ONSHORE FLOW                    
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PRIND CLDNS WL RMN W OF AREA AND SNW SQLS WL RMN OVER LK SUPR                   
DURG THE MRNG. MID/HI CLDNS WL INCRS FM W TO E DURG AFTN... WITH                
CONDS DTRTG TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR IN LGT SNW FM W TO E LT THIS                  
AFTN THRUT THIS EVE. AN ONSHR FLO TO THE N SHR WL RESULT IN MLIFR               
IN LCLY INTS SNW SHWRS AND SNW SQLS BGNG LT AFTN AND CONTG THRUT                
TNGT WHEN WNDS WL VEER. SNW SHWRS WL BCM ISOLD...BUT WITH A                     
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FRZG DRZL MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  12   6  19   2 /  70  70  20  20                                           
INL  11   1  16  -6 /  60  50  10  10                                           
BRD  13   7  22   5 /  80  50  20  10                                           
HYR  14   6  24   5 /  70  80  20  20                                           
ASX  14   6  24   9 /  40  70  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     MONDAY FOR NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN                            
     COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                    
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
607 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                                
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER RIDGING         
DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                        
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING                
AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE                 
ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.                 
EXPECT ATTENDANT CIGS/VSBY/S TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH PERIODIC         
DIPS TO INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE MORE MODERATE SNOW BANDS.                
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO FALL BETWEEN 15Z AND                         
23Z...ALTHOUGH POST-SNOWFALL MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST                      
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KAXN AND KSTC. AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT                
AND LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS EXPERIENCED                    
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY                    
OCCUR...BUT CURRENT AREA OF EXPECTANCY IS SOUTH OF TAF SITES. LOW               
CLOUDS AND MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON                  
MONDAY...WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/JPR                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER RIDGING         
DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                        
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING                
AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE                 
ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 600 AM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN                
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COLDER            
AIR THAT IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH               
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES GENLY ABV 10K AGL OVERNIGHT.              
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS THAT HAVE ADVANCED OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS               
WEAKEN AS MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS               
WILL LOWER IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF MN BY NOON AND OVER              
THE WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY              
LOWERING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES AND CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AGL. CEILINGS              
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR CONDS                                                  
BY MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST TAF SITES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/JVM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
402 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA                 
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON             
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT               
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A                  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST... AS             
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS            
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                        
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS... SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW             
THE GFS HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5               
THOUSAND FEET... WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN.              
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE                    
CATEGORY... AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PORTION SINCE PASSING THROUGH VERY DRY...COLD AIR AT               
THE SURFACE A FEW FLAKES MAY MAKE TO THE SURFACE.                               
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S             
IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS               
THE NORTHWEST TO THE  MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON            
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE              
NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH.             
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PREFER THE MET GUIDANCE... WITH              
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.            
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH... WE            
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN                   
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE                
SURFACE... AND ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM            
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO            
LOWER 50S. CLOUDS COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE              
30S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 400 AM...                                                                 
WHEELS QUICKLY FALL OFF THE WAGON AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES              
BEGIN TO APPEAR BEYOND 48 HOURS (MONDAY MORNING) AT 500 MILLIBARS.              
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE               
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE PRETTY MUCH APPROACHES ZERO REGARDING THE               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY).                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRESSURE               
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH                 
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING...                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE COOL POOL COULD PRODUCE RAIN.                  
LIMITED MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PREVENTING RAIN                
CHANCES FROM GOING TO LIKELY OR HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.            
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO            
45 KNOTS OR HIGHER JUST OFF THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY AND GFS MODEL                 
HELICITY QUITE LARGE AT 12Z WEDNESDAY (GREATER THAN 350). LCL LESS              
THAN 2500 FEET. THE HOPE IS THAT AN EARLY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS               
PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE STABILITY TO MAKE THIS A NON SEVERE EVENT.               
THIS IS THE CURRENT THINKING BUT THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IS SLIM. THIS             
EVENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. TIMING WOULD BE FOR A DAYTIME            
EVENT WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH LIKELY WEDNESDAY              
WITH THE THOUGHT CHANCES WILL GO CATEGORICAL IN FUTURE FORECASTS.               
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.              
ECMWF FORECASTS ANOTHER GULF LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY PRODUCING             
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ITS TRACK HAS THE LOW             
SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR              
THE END OF THE EVENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS STATED                    
EARLIER... CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN LOW... AND WILL LEAVE SMALL RAIN             
CHANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONE AT THIS TIME AS HAVE NO CONFIDENCE             
IN WHICH WAY TO SHIFT THEM.                                                     
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GFS IS              
TOO DEEP WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AND THEREFORE ADVECTS TOO MUCH                
WARMTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S SUNRISE             
WEDNESDAY LIKELY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS FRONT SWEEPS            
THROUGH THE REGION... TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH AND THEN             
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON... IF THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS TRUE.                  
WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE FIFTIES.                                                 
MORNING LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE             
DROPPING SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE             
40S WITH LOW 50S FRIDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
310 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST...                
CONTINUE TO THE EAST TODAY... THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN               
ALBERTA CLIPPER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE            
REGION THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE ITS                
GRIP ON CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST... AS             
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS            
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                        
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS... SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW             
THE GFS HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5               
THOUSAND FEET... WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN.              
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE                    
CATEGORY... AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PORTION SINCE PASSING THROUGH VERY DRY...COLD AIR AT               
THE SURFACE A FEW FLAKES MAY MAKE TO THE SURFACE.                               
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S             
IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS               
THE NORTHWEST TO THE  MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON            
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE              
NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH.             
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PREFER THE MET GUIDANCE... WITH              
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.            
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH... WE            
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN                   
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE                
SURFACE... AND ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM            
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO            
LOWER 50S. CLOUDS COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE              
30S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION              
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SPECIFICS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN               
DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS             
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE FAR             
WESTERN GOMEX BY WED. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE             
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT (FROM THE GOMEX) TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS OF THE            
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...WED LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
THAN TUE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH                  
MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT                
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW                       
THURSDAY...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX              
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                 
COAST ON THU/FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE                 
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL TIMING             
DIFFERENCES...AND THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED             
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AS IS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR                  
TWEAKING TO POPS AND TEMPS. WILL BASICALLY SHOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUE            
THROUGH FRI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE ENTIRE            
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FCST IN THIS PERIOD SINCE              
THEY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES...                    
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP...AND THE TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW THAT MAY                
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPS              
ON TUE/WED...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
130 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS              
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY... AND                
THEN AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS                 
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE.                                         
OCCASIONAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT                
ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET...WILL PRODUCE                      
MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS COLD              
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAKENING 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH               
BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE REMAINS A PROMINENT                
DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN             
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH DEWPOINT ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS STAYING UP IN THE UPPER 20S TO              
LOWER 30S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS CENTRAL NC....AND THIS                
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH A RATHER                 
LARGE SPREAD DUE TO THE LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT. EXPECT LOWS OF IN              
THE MID 20S NW PIEDMONT...TO NEAR FREEZING SOUTHEAST.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH A GOOD BIT              
OF SUNSHINE BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD MIDDAY. A CLIPPER            
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... THEN PASS THROUGH NC AND OFF COAST               
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS MORE SUBDUED WITH THIS VORTICITY                
MAXIMUM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WEAKENING IT IN FAVOR OF A                    
STRONGER MAXIMUM TO ITS NW... HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL MODEL            
TREND TOWARD A STRONGER WAVE WITH MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AS IT                       
APPROACHES. THE 12Z WRF-ARW IS GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS                  
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC VERY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE                
EVENING... AND THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD GREATER QPF AS WELL...            
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS LIQUID ACROSS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT.                
GIVEN THIS TREND... WILL SLIGHTLY EXPAND AREALLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... SWEEPING THEM EAST AND RAISING THEM TO               
20-30% SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST WET BULB PROFILES ARE PRIMARILY               
BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET WHERE THE             
AIR IS ALSO MARKEDLY DRIER. BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR                
SATURATION UP TO -20C... SO A PRECIP TYPE OF LIGHT RAIN AT ONSET AND            
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING NORTH OF                  
HIGHWAY 64 WILL BE RETAINED. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND APPARENT LACK            
OF CONCENTRATED STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS SO AS            
TO BE INSIGNIFICANT... HOWEVER IF IT APPEARS THAT LIFT WILL BE                  
BRIEFLY ENHANCED... WE MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOSTLY SNOW MAINLY             
NEAR THE VA BORDER... BUT AGAIN THE BREVITY OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE              
SHOULD RENDER IT INSIGNIFICANT FOR TRAVELERS. THICKNESSES AND                   
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AGREE ON HIGHS OF 45-52. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT               
26-34 WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.                   
FOR SUNDAY: THE MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR NE                 
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE POLAR HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... AND                   
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE               
PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES... THE RESULTING TIGHTENING MSLP            
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH                 
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).            
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CONSIDERING THE POLAR SOURCE OF THE              
INCOMING SURFACE HIGH... HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO 41-48. -GIH                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE                    
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND                      
MONDAY...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM              
WINDS WILL ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MON MORNING...AND                
EXPECT VERY CHILLY LOW TEMP READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S. CLEAR                
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS             
BY THE AFT/EVE AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM OF AN AREA            
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. FOR               
TEMPS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES (1285-                
1295M AT 12Z MON UP TO 1310-1325M BY 00Z TUE)...WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS             
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                          
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                                                         
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION              
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SPECIFICS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN               
DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS             
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE FAR             
WESTERN GOMEX BY WED. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE             
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT (FROM THE GOMEX) TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS OF THE            
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...WED LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
THAN TUE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH                  
MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT                
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW                       
THURSDAY...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX              
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                 
COAST ON THU/FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE                 
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL TIMING             
DIFFERENCES...AND THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED             
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AS IS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR                  
TWEAKING TO POPS AND TEMPS. WILL BASICALLY SHOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUE            
THROUGH FRI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE ENTIRE            
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FCST IN THIS PERIOD SINCE              
THEY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES...                    
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP...AND THE TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW THAT MAY                
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPS              
ON TUE/WED...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -GIH                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CBL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
846 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERALL NO LARGE CHANGES TO GOING FCST. DID ADJUST TEMP CURVE AS                
TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMING IN DVL-JMS AREA PAST FEW HOURS AND STEADY               
ELSEWHERE. INTERESTING FCST NEXT 12-24 HRS ESP FOR SRN AREAS.                   
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE INTO NW                     
OREGON ATTM WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.                 
THIS MONTANA SHORT WAVE IS ASSOC WITH SFC LOW JUST EAST OF HAVRE                
AND IS ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NRN                 
MONTANA TO THE ISN-MOT AREA. SFC DEW PTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN               
THE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND                   
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH CANADIAN RADARS SHOWING GOOD SNOW AREA               
IN SW SASK INTO NRN MT...WITH ERN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN                   
STREAKING INTO NW/WRN ND. TEMPS IN FAR WRN ND WARM ENOUGH FOR                   
LIQUID PCPN ATTM. MEANWHILE DO HAVE SOME 850 MB DRIER AIR TRYING                
TO ADVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THRU SE SASK AND SRN MB/NW                     
ONTARIO WITH CLEARING OF CLOUDS HAVING JUST PASSED YORKTON-                     
BRANDON-WINNIPEG-KENORA AREA. MOVEMENT OF THIS CLEARING IS                      
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST SO SOME AREAS ALONG MINNESOTA/MANITOBA BORDER               
AND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA MAY WELL SEE SOME CLEARING                       
OVERNIGHT. DID DROP TEMPS A BIT IN THIS AREA FOR THIS REASON AS                 
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO ZERO IN CLEAR AREA.                                       
MEANWHILE...00Z NAM COMING IN AND BACK TO A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN                
SHOWING MONTANA SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SW                 
ND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BASICALLY WEAKENING OR BEING ABSORBED                
BY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE              
A BAND OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FROM CNTRL ND INTO SE                   
ND/WCNTRL MN...WITH RUC AND NAM SHOWING 4-5 INCHES PSBL IN CNTRL                
ND BTWN MOT/JMS/BIS WITH 2-4 INCHES TOWARD FARGO/FERGUS FALLS. HOW              
FAR NORTH WITH THE SNOW IS QUESTIONABLE AS DRIER AIR WILL BE                    
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO NE ND/NW MN ON MONDAY. 00Z NAM CUTSOFF                 
ANY SNOW FROM REACHING GRAND FORKS WHILE 00Z RUC20KM VERSION VIA                
FSL WEB SITE SHOWS NRN EDGE OF SNOW REACHING GRAND FORKS BEFORE                 
SLIDING SOUTHEAST. I THINK CURRENT POP STRUCTURE FOR MONDAY IS                  
PRETTY GOOD. CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IN SE ND AND                   
MIDSHIFT WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IT. SNOW BEGINNING 09Z-12Z IN SE ND              
AND AFTER 12Z IN WCNTRL MN WITH PEAK IN THE MORNING HOURS IN SE                 
ND SO STILL TIME TO LOOK AT. GFS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST BY FAR UP                  
THRU 18Z RUN SO IT WOULD SAY NOT MUCH. HPC WWD HAS 2 INCHES IN SRN              
AREAS SO CLOSE CALL.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH HIGH                      
PRESSURE TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE W. WHEN COMPARING THE                 
MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM                        
TIMING...SO ENDED UP USING A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. THE                  
NAM/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM               
TRACK THAN THE GFS...SO PRIMARILY USED THE NAM FOR POPS. AS FAR AS              
TEMPS...THE ADJMAVBC WAS HANDLING THE COLDER REGIME THAT WE ARE                 
GOING TO KEEP AROUND FOR A WHILE PRETTY WELL...SO USED IT FOR THE               
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST AND THEN SWITCHED TO THE ECMWF FOR THE               
LATER PERIODS.                                                                  
RESIDUAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL START WINDING                 
DOWN IN NW AND WC MN THIS EVENING...AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE                    
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS. PCPN FROM THIS               
NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL IN ALBERTA AND E MT AT THIS TIME...SO NOT                  
EXPECTING IT TO START AFFECTING E ND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.              
WITH THE LOW TO TRACK THROUGH SW ND AND QUICKLY DROP INTO THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ND BY               
18Z MON...IT APPEARS THAT SE ND AND WC MN WILL BE THE BEST                      
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ONE TO                 
THREE INCH SNOWFALLS ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUE MORNING FROM THIS                   
STORM. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MON AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS             
THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT                 
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS TIME...A WINTER WEATHER              
HEADLINE DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.                                             
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ON TUE...WITH ANOTHER               
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...SO KEPT THE               
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED.                       
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...                                                          
MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE CHANGING PATTERN SO WENT             
WITH BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE. PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO        
REMAIN IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY AS 500MB RIDGE REMAINS              
IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. SOME RETROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE PATTERN        
IS EXPECTED AS 500MB MEAN HEIGHTS SHOW RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER GULF            
OF ALASKA. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE N             
PLAINS. WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTING OVER INTL BORDER...EXPECT SERIES              
OF SFC WAVES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT               
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THRU THE END OF             
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FA THROUGH THE               
ENTIRE PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE FA...EXPECT -SN TO                
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/NG                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
904 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FCST IS ON TRACK...SO NO DRASTIC CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO                  
IT. SFC PRESSURE FALLS HAVE STARTED ALONG/WEST OF THE VALLEY NOW                
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AT 03Z NEAR A KTVF-KBWP LINE. THE COLDEST TEMPS             
SO FAR HAVE BEEN NEAR CAVALIER /DOWN TO -12 F/ AND KFSE. THE                    
LATTER IS NOT QUITE AS PORTRAYED IN THE FCST...AND SINCE NW MN                  
WILL RADIATE LONGEST /PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z RUC/NAM                     
700-300MB RH PROGS/ IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO LOWER MINS JUST A BIT MORE              
IN A FEW SPOTS. AGAIN THOUGH...TEMPS WILL STOP THEIR FREE-FALL AND              
THEN RISE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND WAA TAKES OVER OFF THE SFC. WE                 
WILL MODEL THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS ON A MIX OF THE 21/00Z RUC AND                 
00Z NAM.                                                                        
THE 00Z NAM IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH THE SWATH OF -SN EXPECTED                
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MODERATE FRONTOGENSIS              
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND MODERATE 500-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE              
/ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 00Z RUN/ ARE BOTH NOTED. PERSISTENCE IN                   
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS                  
WITH THIS BAND. BUT...THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE 21Z SREF AND NOW                 
THE 00Z NAM FOR A SLIGHTER FASTER PROGRESSION...WHICH IS NOT                    
UNREASONABLE SINCE -SN IS ALREADY ON THE DOORSTEP OF KBIS. WE WILL              
INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY IN OUR WESTERN FA /INCLUDING KDVL/ IN                 
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL APPLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER                    
SPREADS A BAND OF -SN INTO THE KDVL AREA BY 12Z...THE RED RIVER                 
VALLEY 15-18Z...AND THE KBJI AREA THEREAFTER. WE USED UPSTREAM                  
TRENDS AND THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MODEL /AS WELL AS THE SIMILARITY              
TO FRIDAY/S EVENT/ AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS                   
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR /OR POSSIBLY               
LOWER/ CIGS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AT 00Z IS SOMEWHERE ALONG A CYWG-KJMS-KABR                   
LINE. WITH 1-2 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND IN MOST PLACES                
THIS IS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...AT LEAST FOR THE                
NEXT 3-6 HRS BEFORE MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER               
ADD EVEN MORE ISSUES INTO THE TEMP FCST. SFC TEMPS AT 00Z ARE                   
ALREADY BLO 0 F IN MANY LOCALES...SO THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW               
THEY WILL FALL. TOUGH QUESTION AS ALWAYS...BUT USING THE PRESENT                
SFC DEWPOINTS UNDER THE RIDGE /-5 TO -12 F/ AND THE 21Z RUC SFC                 
TEMP FIELDS AS A PROXY GIVES AS REASONABLE OF A SOLUTION AS ANY.                
THE 21Z RUC IS THE ONLY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY               
AT PRESENT. WE ALSO USED THIS MODEL AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING TEMPS                
BACK UP ALONG/WEST OF THE VALLEY 06-12Z WITH WAA RAMPING UP OFF                 
THE DECK AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE.                                            
WE WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY AND                
MINIMUM TEMPS...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE DATABASE UNCHANGED               
ATTM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/RIDDLE                                                                  
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
633 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AT 00Z IS SOMEWHERE ALONG A CYWG-KJMS-KABR                   
LINE. WITH 1-2 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND IN MOST PLACES                
THIS IS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...AT LEAST FOR THE                
NEXT 3-6 HRS BEFORE MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER               
ADD EVEN MORE ISSUES INTO THE TEMP FCST. SFC TEMPS AT 00Z ARE                   
ALREADY BLO 0 F IN MANY LOCALES...SO THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW               
THEY WILL FALL. TOUGH QUESTION AS ALWAYS...BUT USING THE PRESENT                
SFC DEWPOINTS UNDER THE RIDGE /-5 TO -12 F/ AND THE 21Z RUC SFC                 
TEMP FIELDS AS A PROXY GIVES AS REASONABLE OF A SOLUTION AS ANY.                
THE 21Z RUC IS THE ONLY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY               
AT PRESENT. WE ALSO USED THIS MODEL AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING TEMPS                
BACK UP ALONG/WEST OF THE VALLEY 06-12Z WITH WAA RAMPING UP OFF                 
THE DECK AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE.                                            
WE WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY AND                
MINIMUM TEMPS...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE DATABASE UNCHANGED               
ATTM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL APPLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER                    
SPREADS A BAND OF -SN INTO THE KDVL AREA BY 12Z...THE RED RIVER                 
VALLEY 15-18Z...AND THE KBJI AREA THEREAFTER. WE USED UPSTREAM                  
TRENDS AND THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MODEL /AS WELL AS THE SIMILARITY              
TO FRIDAY/S EVENT/ AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS                   
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR /OR POSSIBLY               
LOWER/ CIGS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH E ND INTO E SD.             
WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT AND THEN DIVERGE ON SYSTEM TIMING...WITH NAM THE COMPROMISE           
SOLUTION. THUS...ENDED UP USING THE NAM FOR PCPN TIMING AS WELL AS              
TEMPS FOR EARLY ON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO GFS FOR LATER PERIODS.              
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE SE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER                
ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHES. WITH GOOD WAA AND A S-SE RETURN FLOW                
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE SNOW TO DEVELOP TOWARDS              
MORNING AND SPREAD THROUGH E ND AND NW AND WC MN ON SUN...WITH                  
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW ANTICIPATED.                                      
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE N PLAINS FROM CANADA FOR            
MON INTO TUE...SO KEPT THE FORECAST BASICALLY DRY...BUT WILL NEED TO            
MONITOR CONDITIONS IN NW MN AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE                
POTENTIAL FOR -ZL OR FLURRIES. THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES ON TUE               
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR -SN.                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WED-SAT TIME PERIOD              
WITH BROAD NW FLOW MAINTAINING A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME.               
THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF                      
SYSTEMS...AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A                       
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY IN               
THE EXTENDED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP WITH BOUNDARY AND                 
UPPER SUPPORT. SHORT BREAK AFTER FROPA WED AS HIGH BUILD IN...                  
GIVING COLD AIRMASS FLURRIES AND DECREASING THE CLOUD COVER. WITH               
FAST FLOW MOVING NEXT WAVE IN WED NIGHT INTO THU...THIS IS WHEN                 
GFS/DGEX/ECMWF DIVERGE IN DETAILS. DGEX AND GFS HAVE NEXT WAVE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THU. WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH                      
PROVIDES FOCUS FOR -SN MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH BUILDS               
IN THU NIGHT AND FRI. NEXT WAVE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD MOVING FAR                  
ENOUGH WEST OF CWFA TO REDUCE RISK OF -SN. DGEX MUCH FARTHER E AND              
DISCOUNTED. HAVE MODELED LOW POPS ACROSS THE S AS SYSTEM PUSHES                 
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER COLD DOME. SAT DRY UNDER COLD HIGH.                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/NG/EWENS                                                                
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
102 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RH VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH READINGS NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT               
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON. RUC CONTINUES TO KEEP AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS                    
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS... AND WHILE DEWPOINTS               
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THIS AREA PER MESONET AND ASOSES...                 
THE 00HR ANALYSIS SHOWING 18Z DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NORTH               
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE HIGH AWOS DEWPOINTS ARE               
GETTING INTO THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST. BUT THESE FEW DEGREES IN                
QUESTION ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE                
RED FLAG WARNING. WIND CRITERIA MAY BE MARGINAL IN THE                          
SOUTHEAST... BUT WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE AND THE RED FLAG                   
WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE AREA. RFW IS ALREADY                    
OUT... AND WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO GET THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
PACKAGE UPDATED SOON. THIS UPDATE WILL INCLUDE RAISING MAX                      
TEMPERATURES FURTHER AS SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE              
MAXES FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF                
THE WATCH AREA... AND ADDED HARPER COUNTY AS WELL. RUC SEEMS TO BE              
DOING THE BEST WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS AND IT BRINGS                       
AFTERNOON RH READINGS DOWN TO SUB-20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN                     
PORTION OF THE AREA... DESPITE CURRENTLY BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES                  
COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES                  
BELOW OUR FORECAST. WOODWARD MESONET IS ALREADY DOWN TO 22                      
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 16Z WITH A FEW OTHER SITES IN                      
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY. DID NOT INCLUDE                    
DEWEY/CUSTER/WASHITA COUNTIES IN THE UPGRADE AS RH VALUES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER... BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG               
CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND THE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED HERE. AS FAR AS THE                   
GRIDS GO... HAVE REPOPULATED THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RUC GIVEN ITS               
BETTER CURRENT TRENDS IN THIS FIELD. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES               
JUST A TOUCH AS WELL AREAWIDE.                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY..ESP IN WESTERN                
OK. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX              
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RE FLAG THIS AFTERNOON SO                
WILL LEAVE FIRE WX WATCH IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO                 
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE                  
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE APCHG S/W TROUGH.                    
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MAIN                    
SYSTEM DROPS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NM THEN EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN OK LATE                  
MONDAY THEN PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES                
ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE                
NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO               
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE                 
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OK. SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN ERN SECS. DRY                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  63  40 /   0   0  30  60                              
HOBART OK         66  45  64  38 /   0   0  10  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  47  69  46 /   0   0  10  40                              
GAGE OK           67  37  60  31 /   0   0  30  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  45  59  37 /   0   0  30  70                              
DURANT OK         64  47  62  57 /   0   0  30  70                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>048-             
     050>052.                                                                   
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1040 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF                
THE WATCH AREA... AND ADDED HARPER COUNTY AS WELL. RUC SEEMS TO BE              
DOING THE BEST WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS AND IT BRINGS                       
AFTERNOON RH READINGS DOWN TO SUB-20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN                     
PORTION OF THE AREA... DESPITE CURRENTLY BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES                  
COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES                  
BELOW OUR FORECAST. WOODWARD MESONET IS ALREADY DOWN TO 22                      
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 16Z WITH A FEW OTHER SITES IN                      
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY. DID NOT INCLUDE                    
DEWEY/CUSTER/WASHITA COUNTIES IN THE UPGRADE AS RH VALUES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER... BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG               
CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND THE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED HERE. AS FAR AS THE                   
GRIDS GO... HAVE REPOPULATED THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RUC GIVEN ITS               
BETTER CURRENT TRENDS IN THIS FIELD. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES               
JUST A TOUCH AS WELL AREAWIDE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY..ESP IN WESTERN                
OK. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX              
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RE FLAG THIS AFTERNOON SO                
WILL LEAVE FIRE WX WATCH IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO                 
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE                  
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE APCHG S/W TROUGH.                    
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MAIN                    
SYSTEM DROPS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NM THEN EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN OK LATE                  
MONDAY THEN PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES                
ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE                
NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO               
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE                 
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OK. SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN ERN SECS. DRY                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  63  40 /   0   0  30  60                              
HOBART OK         66  45  64  38 /   0   0  10  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  47  69  46 /   0   0  10  40                              
GAGE OK           67  37  60  31 /   0   0  30  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  45  59  37 /   0   0  30  70                              
DURANT OK         64  47  62  57 /   0   0  30  70                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-             
     010-014-021-033>037.                                                       
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>089.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
945 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MSAS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IN                    
WYOMING...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ND.                
HIGHER DWPT AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA FROM THE                        
WEST...PROVING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN PCPN BEGINS TO                 
OCCUR. ACCORDING TO LASTEST NAM12 AND RUC...BEST PCPN POTENTIAL                 
WILL WAIT UNTIL BETTER 8H-7H LAYER OMEGA MOVES IN...WHICH WILL BE               
AROUND 06Z. DID SOME MINOR TWEAKING TO TIMING IN THE WEATHER                    
GRIDS...BUT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SOME MIXED/FREEZING PCPN                    
POTENTIAL...SO LEFT WEATHER TYPE FCST ALONE. TEMPS IN WY/MT/WRN SD              
ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN                 
THE HOURLY GRIDS STILL SEEMS VALID. UPDATED WORDED ZONE FORECAST                
SENT.                                                                           
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION                             
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE CWA CONTINUES TO SEE WARM ADVECTION UNTIL A               
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PROFILES SUGGEST                 
THAT WARM AIR ALOFT MAY MELT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE IS                   
LARGE DISCREPANCY OVER TIMING AND COVERAGE WITH BOTH THE SNOWFALL AND           
RAIN. ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE EFFECTS OF WARM ADVECTION AT                
THE SURFACE AND THE SPEED AT WHICH COLD AIR IS ERODING...MAKING                 
FOR A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE/WHEN A TRANSITION                   
BETWEEN SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. MAJORITY OF                
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION RESIDES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION                
OF THE JET COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY...WITH THE FOCUS                
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW LEVEL     
CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CWA FROM A KMBG TO KHON LINE...AND HAVE                
MOVED LITTLE. SENSE THIS IS WHERE MAJORITY OF MODEL PRECIPITATION IS            
DERIVED IT SUGGESTS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEDER/FEEDER                     
EFFECT. THEREFORE WILL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR              
THE JAMES VALLEY AND SISSETON HILLS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.                    
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA MONDAY AM...WITH PRECIPITATION                    
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT                 
THE DAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION MONDAY                    
NIGHT/TUESDAY AM WITH H925/H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C. COULD                 
SEE LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY AM AS LOW CLOUDS                  
REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                   
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                          
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO THE AREA WITH                  
THE COLD ARCTIC AIR OSCILLATING IN AND OUT AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE                
THROUGH. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO EARLY PORTION OF FORECAST. A                  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                          
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS                   
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH ARCTIC AIR NEARBY. 12Z NUMERICAL               
GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH WARMER THAN HPC GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL               
TREND TEMPS UP A BIT BUT TRY TO AVOID THE FLIP FLOP. MAJOR                      
PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE USA DURING THE                     
WEEKEND. NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWEST                  
FLOW ALOFT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW A GOOD BET. A STRONG                      
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE STATE BY SUNDAY...BUT                
STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. IT LOOKS                 
AS IF MAIN ENERGY WOULD NOT EJECT IN THE PLAINS UNTIL AFTER THE                 
WEEKEND ATM.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MVFR/HIGH IFR                  
CATEGORY FOR KPIR AND KMBG BETWEEN 080600 AND 080900...WITH THOSE               
CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH 081500. AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT                
SOUTH OF KPIR/KMBG...CONDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT                     
081800. FLURRIES WILL CONT AT THE KATY TERMINAL THROUGH                         
080600...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE KABR TERMINAL AFT 080800.              
MVFR...OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE KABR AND KATY                   
TERMINALS THROUGH 081800 BEFORE IMPROVING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...SCARLETT                                                            
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
935 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WITH             
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION/STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE              
OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES              
ACROSS THE CWA 06Z-18Z...WITH ONLY CONCERN FOR TIMING BEING HOW LONG            
IT WILL TAKE TO FULLY SATURATE BELOW 750-700MB IN THE WAKE OF THE               
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD               
BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF RUC/NAM...AND HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO             
PRECIP FORECAST.                                                                
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. AS EXPECTED...READINGS OVER                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE TANKED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND            
LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS TO COOL EASTERN AREAS...                  
ESPECIALLY LOWER DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...DOWN 5-8 DEGREES FROM EARLIER             
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THESE AREAS TO RECOVER SOME THROUGH THE               
EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM HAVE BEEN SENT              
AND WILL GET NEW ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR BCMG MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN BAND OF SNOW MOVG GRADUALLY            
EWD OVER CWA FM 07Z TO 17Z. PATCHY -FZRA OR -FZDZ PSBL NR AND WEST              
OF JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS SUN MRNG.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
COLD DRY SFC RIDGE MOVG EWD OVR CWA TNGT WITH RESULTANT DROP IN EVE             
TEMPS...FLWD BY INCRG SELY FLOW AND RISING TEMPS FM WEST TO EAST AFT            
MIDN. WENT HIGH END LIKELY POPS WITH EXPCD BAND OF SNOW DVLPG JAMES             
VALLEY WEST AFT MIDN...MOVG EWD OVER CWA SUN MRNG. STG CONVERGENCE              
AND LIFT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID LVLS AND WITH EXPCD              
INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE WEST...SHOULD BE SOME 1 TO 2                
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. A FEW 3 INCHERS PSBL IN SWRN MN SUN MRNG...IF                
BAND WAS NOT PROGRESSING EAST FAIRLY FAST. EVE SHIFT CAN THINK                  
ABOUT UPPING THE POPS TO DEFINITE AFTER PINNING DOWN TIMING AND                 
PLACEMENT OF BEST SNOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE I90 AND NORTH HAS BEST                  
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZRA OR -FZDZ AS              
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TNGT AND SUN                   
MRNG...BUT MAIN PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING EAST WITH THE SNOW BAND.               
THE LGT SNOW AND ANY -FZDZ WILL CONT TO DCRS AND END THRU SUN AFTN.             
LOW AND SOME MID LVL MOISTR SHUD KEEP SKIES MOCLDY MON NGT INTO ERY             
TUE BTWN SYSTEMS. MODELS AND GUIDNCE ARE COMING TOGETEHR                        
SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE MON INTO TUE SYS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS MON               
NGT. AFTER YSTRDAYS WIDE SPLIT BTWN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE                       
ECMWF...WHICH YSTDY HAD SNOW BY BRINGING THE LOW ENTERING NRN BAJA              
UP TOO FAR N...IS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO OTHER MODELS IN HAVING A ZONE             
OF DECENT DYNAMIC AND THERMAL SUPPORT AT LOW AND MID LVLS FOR A                 
DECENT SNOW EVEN OVER FCST AREA...ESPLY SRN HALF...DESPITE MAIN                 
UPEPR WAVE MOVG S OF AREA. SECONDARY WAVE BACKS FLOW ENUF TO TAKE               
ADVANTAGE OF THE TREMENDOUS THERMAL SUPPORT AND THIS SYS SHUD BE A              
VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FEEL NAM IS                 
OVERDONE ON THE WARMING JUST AS GFS LIKELY A LTL TOO COOL. THIS ALL             
SHUD BE A MOOT POINT THO CONSIDERING LIKELY DYNAMIC NATUR OF ANY                
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WHICH WILL QUICKLY TAKE CARE OF ANY WARM AIR...AND             
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP MENTN ALL SNOW EVEN AT THE START. DOESNT LOOK              
LIKE A WINTER STORM AT THIS POINT BUT WILL GO FOR SOME 4 INCH PLUS              
FCSTS AT THIS TIME FOR MON THRU TUE OVER THE SRN CWA. HPC GUIDNCE               
INCLUDING WWD GRAPHICS LOOK QUITE REASNBL XCP THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL              
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO EXITS JUST AS MUCH OVER THE SWRN CRNR OF FCST                
AREA AS MUCH AS EWD INTO NWRN IA...SO WILL GO FOR THAT SCENARIO WITH            
THE SWRN CRNR OF COURSE GETTING THE SNOW ERYR. THOSE TEMPS AFTER                
HOLDING RELTVLY MILD MON NGT WILL NOT SHOW TOO MUCH RISE TUE.                   
WED THRU SAT EXTENDED PD KEEPS MOST OF TIS QSTNS FROM YSTDY XCP IN              
VRBL NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW EVENTS SUCH AS WE HAVE             
FOR WED AND FRI WILL BE PRETTY MINOR. A LTL WARMING BY FRI THEN                 
COOLING AGN FOR SAT AS PER GUIDNCE. THIS IS A WAITING PD AWAITING               
DIGGING OF MAJOR WCOAST TROF AS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY MODELS...WITH             
ANY BIG PCPN EVENTS AND TEMP CHANGES WAITING TILL AFTER THIS FCST               
PD. ERYR THOUGHTS OF AN IMPRTANT SYS FOR NEXT WEEKEND HAVE SLOWED               
SLGHTLY AS THE ECMWF WHICH WAS TRYING TO DO THIS ON 00Z RUN HAS                 
SLOWED THE TROF PROGRESSION AND DVLPMNT WITH LATEST RUN AND HINTING             
AT NOTHING EXCITING...AT LEAST THRU NEXT SAT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RYRHOLM/WILLIAMS                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
252 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY SATURDAY PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN              
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY                 
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE LATEST 12KM NAM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RUC13 IS DOING A GOOD                
JOB SHOWING THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. NAM MODEL                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF THIS CLOUD DECK TO SHIFT                   
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OUR SRN CWA THROUGH DAWN. HAVE MADE                     
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                   
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS                 
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW                  
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP                  
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA RIDGES (BLF) WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE                  
AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CALLING THE RIDGES WARMER...STILL LOOKING               
AT A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO                
LOWER 20S EAST AND ALONG SW VA WESTERN RIDGES. THE 12KM NAM IS                  
DEPICTING                                                                       
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A                 
CLIPPER CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING            
THROUGH THE DAY ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE              
IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINING COLD            
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES -4C TO -7C. IF PRECIP DOES FALL SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON...IT WILL REMAIN AS SNOW...ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE                 
RIDGE AS RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW.. IF CLOUDS              
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED AND A FEW              
FLAKES COULD BE OBSERVED IN THE PIEDMONT. OF COURSE...THAT IS IF                
PRECIP FALLS. 12Z NAM BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST MODELS TODAY ONLY HAS             
GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP. ON THE OTHER                 
HAND...12Z GFS/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN HAS PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS THE                  
FOOTHILLS. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE START TIME AND                     
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WITH PARENT LOW SO FAR NORTH AND OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES. WILL SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH      
THESE CONCERNS AND THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO SATURATE               
AGAIN. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE             
IN THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE              
DAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO EXTREME SW VA AND NE NC...SUCH THAT                  
SNOW SHWS SHOULD SHUT OFF QUICK SUNDAY MORNING THERE. DESPITE LACK              
OF MOISTURE...-15C H85 TEMPS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COULD CHURN OUT              
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES...MAINLY THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. WINDS                  
WILL BE GUSTY ALONG NW NC...WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING               
50KT GUSTS BLO THE INVERSION. CONSIDERING THAT SOME SUN WILL POP                
OUT LATER SUNDAY...AND AT LEAST A WIND ADV WILL NEED TO BE                      
CONSIDERED FOR THE NW NC HIGHLANDS.                                             
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...1030                
MB...PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND 06 UTC...THEN TO ALONG THE MID                     
ATLANTIC COAST BY 18 UTC. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD              
PROMOTE COLD SURFACE TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE                    
COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR THIS SEASON...AND WENT AT LEAST A FEW                    
DEGREES BLO GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY HIT THE                    
SINGLE DIGITS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING TWO SEPARATE             
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS            
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY 3...BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS BY DAYS 6/7.                                             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR             
ADVECTION DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE                
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A DROP IN                 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE                      
FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH FRONT NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON                   
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH ALL THE               
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 EXCEPT TO CONFINE              
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE                        
PERIOD...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.                                       
SATURDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER. LOOK FOR CIGS              
TO REMAIN VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN THIS PERIOD...WHILE SOME LIGHT                     
SNOW...SNOW FLURRIES MOVE INTO BLF/LWB DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS               
WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH IT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF                      
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN SE WV...B4 FLOW                    
SHIFTS TO THE WEST/NW WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD THE END OF              
THIS TAF PERIOD. AGAIN...CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR...AND COULD FALL                
TO IFR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY                      
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES BY.                  
ROA...LYH AND DAN WILL BE VFR INTO SUNDAY...BUT WITH GUSTY                      
NORTHWEST WINDS...ARRIVING LATE SAT NIGHT.                                      
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS                    
ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD                   
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING DETERIORATING                 
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND A GOOD CHC OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND               
VSBYS BY THE END OF THE DAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PM                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP                                                              
SHORT TERM...KM/PM                                                              
LONG TERM...AMS                                                                 
AVIATION...RCS/WP                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
411 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
PLENTY OF HEADACHES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAK SYSTEM/LIGHT SNOW               
EVENT TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...AND THEN                 
WINTER STORM POTENTIAL BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.      
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF MS RIVER WITH WIDESPREAD              
SUBZERO TEMPS IN THE FRESH SNOWPACK/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND AREA                  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR DOING LITTLE TO HOLD                 
BACK THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. -13F AT SPARTA AS OF 09Z. GOES WATER              
VAPOR SHOWS WEAK/SHEARED PV ANOMALY OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTING QUICKLY          
SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BROAD WARM ADVECTION WING OF                 
LIGHT SNOW OVER DAKOTAS WITH 1-3SM VSBYS CROSSING INTO MN SOON.                 
07.06Z RUC ANALYSIS HAD -14 TO -16C AIR OVER ARX FORECAST AREA                  
/NWLY FLOW/ WITH +1C AT KUNR /RAPID CITY/ ON SWLY FLOW.                         
REGARDING MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE...ENOUGH HAS COME INTO LINE                
REGARDING MON NIGHT/TUES SYSTEM TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR                 
SRN/SERN SIDE OF FORECAST AREA. 07.00Z GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHIFT                
NORTH TOWARD PVS RUNS OF ECMWF AND NOW SPORT SIGNIFICANT QPF                    
ACROSS IOWA INTO INTO SRN WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO                      
TUESDAY. EVEN LOCALLY RUN WRF /ARW-WRF INITIALIZED WITH GFS                     
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS/ HAS COME INTO LINE WITH A VERY NICE                        
DOWNSCALED RENDITION OF THE 07.00Z GFS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR                  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN WISCONSIN.              
WFO COLLABORATION SUPPORTED CURRENT WATCH ALIGNMENT WITH MAIN                   
FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW.        
FIRST WITH TODAY/TONIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE TREND HERE IS TOWARD              
A LITTLE WEAKER SYSTEM...QUICKER...WITH A SHORTER DURATION EVENT.               
EXPECT STRONG BURST OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT /285K-295K/ AND MID LEVEL              
Q/G SIGNAL TO WORK MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE              
BAND OF SNOW INTO THE AREA EITHER VERY LATE THIS MORNING BUT FOR                
SURE BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WE              
BUMPED THE SNOW CHANCES HIGHER...THE QUICKER/MORE TRANSIENT NATURE              
OF THE FORCING ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE LIGHTER QPF/SNOW AMOUNT.                    
THINKING NOW IS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH A FEW LOCALLY              
UP TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY WEST OF MS RIVER. PV ALOFT IS AWFULLY                   
WEAK/SHEARED OUT...SO THIS SUPPORTS A WEAKER REFLECTION                         
BELOW...AND AN EVENT DRIVEN LARGELY BY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS. WITH              
WARMER AIR STREAMING IN ALOFT...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL                  
WANES QUICKLY WITH RATIOS DECREASING BY THE HOUR.                               
TONIGHT...EXPECT BAND OF SNOW TO BE MAINLY EAST OF MS RIVER AND                 
WEAKENING. STILL SEEING A WINDOW /3-5HR/ RIGHT AS THE SNOW ENDS FOR             
ICE-BEARING CLOUD TO DEPART BUT HAVE SFC-2KM DEEP MOISTURE FIELD                
STILL FEELING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO              
PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE SOME NAM/GFS RUNS OVER THE                 
PAST DAYS HAVE BROUGHT A NICE SFC REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL                 
WAVE INTO THE AREA TO HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...THE LATTER               
RUNS ARE NOT HITTING THIS SO HARD...HENCE WE MAY BE LACKING OMEGA               
IN AN OTHERWISE VERY NICE SETUP FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE...WILL              
KEEP IT PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN SET                
UP A GOOD ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM...COVERAGE                
CAN BE UPGRADED. WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT                
BELOW 1KM SO THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. HAVE SEEN                    
/ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SPC-WRF/NCAR-WRF/LOCALLY RUN                  
WRF/ THE TRADEMARK SPECKLES OF QPF INDICATING DRIZZLE HERE AND                  
THERE...SO THINK IT/S STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.                                     
MONDAY...TRICKY DAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING /MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q/G               
AND FRONTOGENESIS/ SLOWLY STARTS TO INCREASE AS NRN/SRN STREAM                  
ENERGY ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INDUCING A BACKING OF THE MID                
LEVEL FLOW. QPF IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN HERE AND THERE...BUT THERE               
HAS BEEN SOME TRENDS TOWARD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW /WHICH MAY                     
BRIEFLY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET/ GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL                 
STRUCTURES IN WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT IN AMOUNTS...BUT ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SNOW               
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST. A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 30.                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DESPITE 07.00Z AND 07.06Z                  
NAM-WRF BACKING WAY OFF OF PREVIOUS SHIFT TOWARD ECMWF SOLN AND                 
MANY NAM SREF MEMBERS IN THIS NAM-WRF CAMP...THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT              
MOVEMENT IN NON-NAM SOLUTIONS TOWARD A WINTER STORM OVER IOWA/SRN               
WISCONSIN THIS TIME PERIOD. 07.00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE /IN                  
MOST PART/ THAT SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES              
AND BECOME DOMINANT INDUCING 995MB ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER                  
TX/OK BORDER REGION ON MONDAY EVENING. INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE                
ON THETA-SFC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY TAKE OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS                
SFC LOW MOVES INTO CNTL/SRN MO. SFC LOW NEVER REALLY DEEPENS...AND              
EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ELONGATED WITH THE MAIN CENTER INTO ERN                 
ILL BY 00Z WED. INITIAL PV/SHORTWAVE OVER TX PANHANDLE MON EVENING              
EJECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE OVER COLORADO...WHICH DIGS              
AND EJECTS INTO IA/MO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RESULT IS LONGER                    
DURATION SNOW EVENT WITH EPISODES OF HEAVIER QPF THROUGH THE LONG               
EVENT TIED TO THESE SHORTWAVES...AND SOME ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM              
AS WELL. TROUGH AXIS/PV EAST OF AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING                
RAPID END OF SNOW. MATURE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM KS/NEB                     
THROUGH IA/SRN WISCONSIN IN PLACE AS WAVES ARRIVE TO ASSIST IN PCPN             
PRODUCTION. MID LEVEL /700-500MB/ FRONTOGENESIS AXIS...WHILE NOT                
OVERLY STRONG...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN WIS                     
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO AUGMENT LARGER SCALE LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF 150-170KT JET ACROSS ERN CANADA...WITH COUPLING OF JETS               
NOTED AS 120KT JET EJECTS OUT OF SRN STREAM INTO CNTL CONUS ON                  
TUES. PLENTY OF FORCING HERE. ACCORDING TO 07.00Z GFS CROSS                     
SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS PATTERN...BEST DEEP LAYERED                    
OMEGA/AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE COMES IN 06Z TUES-18Z TUES TIME FRAME               
ACROSS NERN IA/SWRN WI.                                                         
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL PRODUCING 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID                 
ACROSS NERN IA/SWRN WISCONSIN...WHICH SEEMS ENOUGH FOR WATCH GIVEN              
CONSIDERATION TO STRONGER WINDS WHICH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NERN IA                
ON TUES WHICH MAY ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW. ECMWF WOULD ARGUE FOR                  
ADDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CURRENT                    
WATCH...BUT IS ALONE IN THIS DEPICTION RIGHT NOW. 07.00Z GEM IS                 
VERY MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF WITH QPF FOR THE EVENT TOWARD 1 INCH                   
ACROSS SWRN WISCONSIN...BUT RIGHT NOW FORCING DOESN/T SEEM TO                   
SUPPORT THIS AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LACK OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY                   
/-EPV/ OR A STRONGER FGEN SIGNAL. ONE OTHER CAVEAT...INITIAL WARM               
AIR ALOFT /USING MAX WET BULB TEMP/ CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PERIOD OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN THE EVENT BEFORE LIFT/COOLING TURNS               
IT TO SNOW. RIGHT NOW THAT/S NOT IN ARX FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOSE               
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME A PLAYER. BOTTOM LINE...CURRENT THINKING              
IS A 5-8 INCH BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NERN IA INTO SWRN                     
WISCONSIN...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS ON LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT IN THIS PERIOD THANKS TO WEATHER SYSTEMS IN                 
THE SHORT TERM OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE TIME THIS MORNING. THE BOTTOM              
LINE HASN/T CHANGED...THERE/S STILL TREMENDOUS SPREAD BETWEEN THE               
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE POOL               
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX OVER CANADA...AND HOW/IF/WHEN               
SOME OF THAT BITTER AIR SPILLS SOUTH. THERE/S ENOUGH AGREEMENT                  
THAT WED WILL BE DRY/COLD IN THERMAL TROUGH IN WAKE OF                          
MONDAY/TUESDAY STORM. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY                           
DETERIORATES. STILL SEEING CONFIDENCE PLOTS SPELL OUT AN EXTREME                
DEGREE OF VOLATILITY IN THE 21 MEMBER GEFS...THAT AN ENSEMBLE                   
APPROACH IS BASICALLY USELESS WITH FORECAST ENSEMBLE SPREAD                     
EXCEEDING THE 25 YEAR REANALYSIS OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGICAL                        
SPREAD...WHICH IS RARE. VIEWED GRAPHICALLY...THE GEFS MEMBER                    
PLUMES SHOWING 850MB TEMP RANGE FROM 0C TO -30C...WITH THIS DEGREE              
OF SPREAD FROM DEC11 INTO DEC15. ACTUALLY FIND SOME SEMBLANCE OF                
AGREEMENT AFTER FRIDAY IN THE 07.00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS               
WHICH ARE HIGHER RESOLUTION...BUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE A HUGE                   
SPREAD ON TEMPERATURES WITH GFS SAYING ARCTIC PLUNGE AND ECMWF                  
MUCH MORE MODIFIED. CHOSE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE HERE UNTIL A MORE               
CLEAR SIGNAL IS SEEN. WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW UNDERNEATH               
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL KEEP PESKY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO THE END                
OF THE WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE                  
SEEMS TO BE GROWING CONSENSUS OF AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE PERIOD                     
DEVELOPING AS WRN TROUGHING/VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES SOUTH INTO                
NRN ROCKIES SETTING UP VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SW-NE                    
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CONUS. MASSIVE 1040-1045MB HIGH PRESSURE                
IN WRN CANADA/NRN CONUS FUNNELS ARCTIC AIR SOUTH...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE         
SERVING FOCUS FOR SNOW EPISODES ON AND OFF. WHERE THE FRONT SETS                
UP WILL BE THE MAJOR QUESTION. THERE/S NO DOUBT...WINTER IS IN                  
FULL SWING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ZONE OF STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. A MODEST AMOUNT OF                  
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS LIFT...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING                
THRU THE MORNING AS THE LIFT APPROACHES. STRONGEST LIFT/DEEPEST                 
MOISTURE/SATURATION MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE                        
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE MODEST MOISTURE AT BEST...APPEARS CIG/VSBY             
RESTRICTIONS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR AS THE BAND OF -SN MOVES ACROSS THE            
AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE LATE                
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS WHILE SOME FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE REMAIN IN              
THE LOWEST 2KM TO 3KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS A FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE SIGNAL. THIS SIGNAL MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE EARLY EVENING            
AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THE -FZDZ WITH NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR            
CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK LIFT AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS              
CONTINUING TO PULL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
311 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
MUCH OF THE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES IN TWO AREAS....TODAY/S              
WINDS AND COLD WITH FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW...AND SUNDAY                      
AFTN/NIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE SHORT                  
TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THANKS TO SOLID SHORT TERM MODEL                   
AGREEMENT BEFORE THINGS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.           
CURRENTLY...POTENT FAMILY OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WI/MN IN                 
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 160KT JETLET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF                   
IMPRESSIVE WRN CONUS RIDGING. THIS HAS DRIVEN A LARGE AREA OF                   
LGT/MOD SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH                
AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE ALONG/EAST OF MS RIVER. IN WAKE              
OF DEEP LIFT/STEADY SNOW...SOME -FZDZ/SNOW GRAIN MIXTURE HAS                    
DEVELOPED BETWEEN TC METRO AND KLSE WITH MANY OBS HAVING UNKNOWN                
PRECIP AND LOOK OUTSIDE THE OFFICE CONFIRMS A SKOSH OF FZDZ IN                  
THE NARROW WARM SECTOR SOUTH/WEST OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH                
WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING TOP OF LOW CLOUD DECK RIGHT AT -8C                
TO -10C...WHICH SUPPORTS THE MIX OF FZDZ/SNOW GRAINS. 1002MB SFC                
LOW NEAR KEAU ALSO HELPING TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MS                   
RIVER INTO CNTL WISCONSIN. COLD TEMPS /AND GUARANTEED ICE                       
ACTIVATION/ NOT TOO FAR ENOUGH WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE LOW               
TEENS NOW IN CNTL MN WITH STRONG WINDS /25-30KTS/. NEXT SHORTWAVE               
OF CONCERN SEEN IN GOES WV LOOPS CRESTING WRN CONUS RIDGE OFF BC                
COAST.                                                                          
TODAY...COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE OR A                  
LITTLE EARLIER WHICH STARTS A TEMP FREEFALL AS 850MB TEMPS START                
DAY AT -10C AND END THE DAY AT -20C. SFC TEMPS WILL BE IN A STEADY              
FALL ALL DAY FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S AT DAYBREAK INTO THE                        
LOW/MIDDLE TEENS BY SUNSET. WINDS A BIG CONCERN TODAY...AS LAPSE                
RATES REALLY STEEPEN IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SUPPORTING                  
TRANSFER OF 30KT GUSTS TO THE SFC IN THE STRONG                                 
SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE               
NEW 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AREA-WIDE...AND THEN THE PERIOD OF TEMPS                 
NEAR 30 AND FZDZ OVERNIGHT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW THE SNOW                  
WILL BLOW AROUND TODAY. THINK WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                    
REALLY DRIFT IN OPEN AREAS...SO EXPANDED BLSN ACROSS ENTIRE AREA                
THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO FALL BACK SOME. DON/T SEE                
VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLSN UPSTREAM...BUT ROADS MAY GET DICEY IN A              
FEW OPEN AREAS. PLENTY OF FLURRIES UPSTREAM IN THE THIN BKN-OVC                 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD...SO KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL AREAS              
SHOULD SEE FLAKES FLYING FROM TIME TO TIME. A LITTLE CONCERN GIVEN              
THE LAPSE RATES THAT A FEW MORE VIGOROUS SHSN MAY DEVELOP...AND                 
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WIND CHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON DIP                 
BELOW ZERO...WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE OUTDOORS TODAY.                        
TONIGHT...RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES FOR A BRIEF               
PERIOD BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD IN FROM                 
WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME GIVEN FRESH               
SNOW AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAPIDLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO DROP              
TEMPS NEAR/BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS TEMPS INTACT.              
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT LIGHT SNOW                          
ACCUMULATION EVENT SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SUN AFTN               
INTO SUN NIGHT. DRIVEN LARGELY BY DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT                  
/WARM ADVECTION/ AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL QG WITH AN OVERALL WEAK               
PV STRUCTURE. WIND VECTORS ON THE THETA SFCS ALMOST PERFECTLY                   
ORTHOGONAL TO THE PRESSURE SFCS SUGGESTING OPTIMUM UPGLIDE AND                  
GOOD OMEGA..CONFIRMED IN CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH              
THE EVENT. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENT...WILL                 
MAKE UP FOR IT IN GOOD SNOWFALL RATIOS /AT START OF EVENT/ AND                  
BETTER MOISTURE ON 280-290K LAYER /SPEC HUMIDITY/. ANOTHER 1-2                  
INCHES LOOKS LIKELY...WITH 3 INCHES PROBABLY AN OUTLIER BUT                     
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF RIVER WITH LIFT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES               
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HERE ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAPID EROSION OF ICE-BEARING CLOUD IN LATE                      
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF GFS/NAM BUFR                  
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY DEEP LOW LEVEL /SFC-2.5KM/ SATURATED                   
LAYER UNDERNEATH THE DRY AIR ALOFT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STILL                 
OCCURRING IN THIS LAYER BUT OMEGA IS WEAK. HINTS OF CONVERGENCE                 
AXIS /WARM FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH AT THIS TIME SO SNOW COULD                     
DEFINITELY END AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO                  
ADDED THIS POTENTIAL TO FORECAST. BOTH MODELS ALSO PAINTING TELL-               
TALE SPECKLES OF VERY LIGHT QPF /DRIZZLE SIGNAL/ ON THE FORECAST                
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THIS TOO NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.                            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
CONFIDENCE STILL WELL BELOW AVG IN THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL SEEING               
HUGE DISCREPANCIES IN NUMEROUS AREAS...FIRST WITH HOW MON                       
NIGHT/TUES WAVES PHASE /OR NOT PHASE/ AND THEN HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR IS           
AROUND FOR WED/THUR/FRI. STILL SEEING VERY LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH                 
LOW RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION                         
DETERMINISTIC RUNS WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 15C TO 20C DIFFERENT FOR              
WED/THUR BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. NO WONDER CONFIDENCE PLOTS                      
BASICALLY SUGGESTING ENSEMBLE DATA USELESS IN THIS DEGREE OF                    
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY.                                                             
THE BIG FOCUS WILL BE ON MON NIGHT/TUES CNTL CONUS STORM WHICH HAS              
SHOWN A TREND IN ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD GIVEN                
VARYING DEGREES OF PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAMS ACROSS THE CNTL               
CONUS. THE NEW 06.00Z ECMWF /PROVEN SUPERIOR IN THIS TIME FRAME TO              
NCEP MODELS/ HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BONAFIDE HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR                 
MUCH OF IOWA INTO SRN WISCONSIN. THERE IS LESSER SUPPORT...BUT                  
SUPPORT NONETHELESS FROM THE 06.00Z NAM-WRF AND CAN GEM...BUT                   
06.00Z GFS AND GEFS PROBABILITIES ARE WELL SOUTH. GIVEN THE                     
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK BABY STEPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND BUMPED UP                  
SNOW CHANCES ALL AREAS...ESP SOUTH TO 50S/60S WITH NOTION THESE                 
MAY NEED TO GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH ONE MORE BATCH OF                      
SUPPORTING RUNS FROM ECMWF/GEM/WRF. THERE/S EVEN A HINT AT A START              
OF RAIN/FZRA IN THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NEED TO SEE MORE                   
SUPPORT FOR THIS BEFORE PUTTING IN FORECAST. BOTTOM LINE...IF                   
ECMWF TRENDS PROVE CORRECT...THIS STORM HAS CAPABILITY FOR                      
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING.                       
FURTHER UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE /NRN STREAM/ SET TO RUN                
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WED/WED NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES HERE...AND                  
THIS WAVE HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES /THUS THE HUGE                 
SPREAD CURRENTLY SEEN IN ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC RUNS/. PLENTY MORE              
ENERGY TO BE HAD IN THIS PATTERN TOWARD END OF WEEK INTO THE                    
WEEKEND...CERTAINLY WILL BE ACTIVE/INTERESTING WITH BOATLOADS OF                
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD IN CANADA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS              
TO WEST CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY INTO SUNDAY                                                   
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SN AND PATCHY -FZDZ WILL EXIT                    
QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PRECIP COMING TO AN END BEFORE              
12Z. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE MVFR STRATO-CU DECK EXTENDS UPSTREAM                
ACROSS MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS BEHIND IT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND               
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE                         
DAY...CREATING SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW THRU THIS                  
MORNING. THESE WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE                   
LOW/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE CREATING SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CLOUD                  
DECK ACROSS WESTERN MN. THESE BREAKS RATHER PATCHY AND TRANSITORY               
AND BKN/OVC MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THRU THE DAY. SFC TO               
850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL              
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHALLOWER MOISTURE/DRIER AIR                   
MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP/SCATTER                 
OUT FOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SUN MORNING WITH                  
CLOUDS INCREASING AND -SN MOVING BACK INTO THE TAF SITES BY LATER               
SUN AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
932 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...SMALL BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSISTS THIS              
MORNING FROM N OF KLAR TO S OF KBFF TO W OF KSNY. SO...HAVE                     
EXTENDED THESE THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE GONE AFTER                   
THAT. ALSO...UPDATED TEMP GRIDS FOR WARMER CURRENT NUMBERS. JLH                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
WEAK RETURNS ON THE KCYS 88D CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE               
WEST PART OF THE CWA.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB                
AND WITH CURRENT FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                 
SPREADS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE GROUND.  THE                 
RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH                
15Z.  WILL PLACE LOW POPS OVER THAT AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST               
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR                 
EAST PART OF WYOMING WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST.  BEHIND                  
THE BOUNDARY ARE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 20S CURRENTLY OVER               
PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                
ABOVE ZERO TODAY AND WITH THE WEST WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE                
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE             
PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION AND SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS             
AS STRONG TODAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY               
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST                 
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THAT WILL START SURFACE              
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A PACIFIC FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW                  
WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                
INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO                
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE SREF AND GFS SPREAD THE               
SNOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THAN DOES THE NAM.  AT THIS TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  THAT IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MOISTURE              
IS DEEPEST AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT                  
TIME WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z                
TUESDAY AND 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THOSE AMOUNTS GENERALLY            
FIT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON              
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUICK SNOW EVENT.  THE                  
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND THE SURFACE UPSLOPE                  
WEAKENS.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT THAN THOSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUES              
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST            
COAST.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND             
THUR.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE               
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF THE              
LARAMIE RANGE.  WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A               
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC              
FLOW OCCURS ALOFT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE              
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.  THIS                
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A                 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT AND                   
DEEP...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST                        
AREA...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE CWA.  THE ECMWF IS                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT                    
EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES...5              
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND THU...AND AROUND NORMAL FOR               
FRI AND SAT.                                                                    
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.                 
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  MVFR AND             
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD FROM                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR                  
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEILAND                                                   
LONG TERM...KMD                                                                 
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
316 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                     
WEAK RETURNS ON THE KCYS 88D CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE               
WEST PART OF THE CWA.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB                
AND WITH CURRENT FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                 
SPREADS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE GROUND.  THE                 
RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH                
15Z.  WILL PLACE LOW POPS OVER THAT AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST               
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR                 
EAST PART OF WYOMING WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST.  BEHIND                  
THE BOUNDAY ARE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 20S CURRENTLY OVER                
PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                
ABOVE ZERO TODAY AND WITH THE WEST WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE                
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE             
PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION AND SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS             
AS STRONG TODAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY               
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST                 
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THAT WILL START SURFACE              
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A PACIFIC FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW                  
WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                
INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO                
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE SREF AND GFS SPREAD THE               
SNOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THAN DOES THE NAM.  AT THIS TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  THAT IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MOISTURE              
IS DEEPEST AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT                  
TIME WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z                
TUESDAY AND 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THOSE AMOUNTS GENERALLY            
FIT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON              
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUICK SNOW EVENT.  THE                  
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND THE SURFACE UPSLOPE                  
WEAKENS.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT THAN THOSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUES             
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST            
COAST.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND             
THUR.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE               
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF THE              
LARAMIE RANGE.  WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A               
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC              
FLOW OCCURS ALOFT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE              
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.  THIS                
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A                 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT AND                   
DEEP...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST                        
AREA...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE CWA.  THE ECMWF IS                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT                    
EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES...5              
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND THU...AND AROUND NORMAL FOR               
FRI AND SAT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.                
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  MVFR AND             
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD FROM                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR                  
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEILAND/KMD                                                                     
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
328 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 325 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                
00Z GFS AND SREF MODELS ARE HANDLING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET                  
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND WILL FOLLOW THIS MODEL                
WITH HANDLING THIS LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT SHIFTS NE OF                  
CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY. RUC AND NAM KEPT IT DRY OVER CENTRAL/SE IL                
BUT GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF              
A SPRINGFIEND TO MATTOON TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. MODELS THEN SHOW                
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF IA/WI TONIGHT AND TUE AS LOW                    
PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES. MOSTLY RAIN OVER CENTRAL/SE IL FOR THIS EVENT. FORECAST                  
CHALLENGE IS WHEN RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND                
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.                                                            
09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SE                
CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO INTO              
CENTRAL IL. A SMALL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL               
MO TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET              
AND LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL MO AROUND ST LOUIS                    
EASTWARD INTO SE IL. ALSO PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET                
AND LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS QUINCY TO TAYLORVILLE AND                        
EFFINGHAM. THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED AS FAR NE AS JACKSONVILLE                 
AND SPRINGFIELD TO FLORA.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                     
JUST ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING UNTIL 10 AM               
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72. AS FAR NORTH AS CHRISTIAN...SHELBY...                  
MOULTRIE...COLES AND EDGAR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL                  
TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH/END LATE THIS MORNING AS SMALL                  
SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND EXITS ENE OF SE IL. REST OF DAY THEN LOOKS               
DRY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL. JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT                
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NW OF I-55.                                                 
560 DM 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA WILL MOVE TOWARD                
NM/NW TX BY SUNSET WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.             
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY SW OF                
IL TODAY. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE OF I-74 TO THE                   
UPPER 40S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW. LOWS TONIGHT STAY               
ABOVE FREEZING FROM 35 TO 40F. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE INTO                      
CENTRAL MO BY DAWN TUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING NE                
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TUE AS                 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES CENTRAL IL BY NOON TUE AND NORTHERN                     
INDIANA BY SUNSET TUE WHILE NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN MID MS VALLEY.                  
COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE IL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE                 
MORNING. SPC HAS GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH OF I-72 TUE. SHOULD              
HAVE DECENT RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER                    
VALUES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD                  
INTO CENTRAL/SE IL AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND JET DYNAMICS.                     
RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON NW OF              
I-55 AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 0C. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW               
OVER EASTERN IL DURING TUE EVENING. BUT PRECIPITATION MUCH LIGHTER              
BY THEN SO ONLY HAVE BETWEEN A HALF AND 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF                
DECATUR WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BY GALESBURG. HIGHS TUE TO RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 30S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG TO 50 TO 55F IN                   
SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ACROSS THE OH                  
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WED WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE SE OF                 
THE OH RIVER TUE NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR              
TUE NIGHT AND WED ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. CANADIAN HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IL BY SUNSET WED WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS                     
DIMINISHING. LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS WED NIGHT.                                  
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE              
MIDWEST WED THROUGH FRI WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS                
BEEN THE NORM DURING THE PAST MONTH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW             
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHT QPF OVER CENTRAL IL LATER                 
THU NIGHT/FRI. WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW IF PRECIPITATION             
DID OCCUR. IL GETS MORE INTO A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND                
WITH TROF DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING               
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD MODIFY TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL                
THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF IS 24 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT              
INTO CENTRAL IL BY SUNSET SUNDAY WHILE GFS DOES NOT BRING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO CENTRAL IL UNTIL SUNSET MON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY                  
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPIATION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING NEEDS              
TO BE RESOLVED.                                                                 
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1152 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008...FOR THE 06Z TAFS                            
MID LEVEL WAA IS CREATING LIFT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA                    
ALREADY. RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP WITH 20-25 DBZ REFL.              
INITIAL TEMP PROFILES SEEM LIKE WE MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW                 
INSTEAD OF FZRA AT THE ONSET. CLOUD DECKS ARE STILL AT 10K                      
FT...AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THAT CLOUD                
LVL. NWS LSX INDICATED SPRINKLES FROM 25 DBZ RADAR RETURNS...SO AS              
THE WARM LAYER DEEPENS OVER OUR CWA...WE MAY SEE FLAKES OF SNOW                 
CHANGE TO DROPS OF FZRA. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S                   
TONIGHT...SO THE WARM LAYER WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE FZRA INTO                 
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.                                                           
THE NEW NAM IS GOING DRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...WHILE THE               
GFS IS DROPPING AROUND 0.1 INCHES OF WATER. WILL KEEP 2HR TEMPOS                
FOR FZRA IN THE SPI/DEC/CMI TAFS...WITH JUST VCSH IN THE PIA/BMI                
TAFS. REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS...AS THE LOWER MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED.              
NEXT ISSUES ARE INCREASING WINDS MONDAY EVENING AND ONSET OF RAIN.              
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE                
SOME VCSH AND 5K FT DECKS AT MOST SITES BY 04-05Z MONDAY EVE. SOUTH             
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING.                          
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FROM CHRISTIAN...SHELBY...                  
MOULTRIE...COLES AND EDGAR COUNTIES SOUTH.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.            
THEN ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS MON NIGHT-WEDS.                                   
ONLY MODEL HANDLING THE ONGOING PROCESSES AND RESULTING PRECIP IS               
THE GFS. NAM APPEARS TOO DRY WHILE NO MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON             
THE PRECIP. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR TO            
PRODUCE THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING.                                              
BEYOND TODAY...WILL USE THE SREF/ECMWF FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING                
FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM. ONLY CHANGE IS TO                 
DELAY THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                          
AT CURRENT...SFC MAP SHOWED A LOW ACROSS SE COLORADO WITH SE SFC LOW            
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM            
12 TO 16F ACROSS THE CWA. RESULTING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE WELL                 
BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BANDED RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING             
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS LOWERING TOWARD            
5KFT AND SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT LINCOLN IL. AND A MIX OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT STL INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO             
BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING 850-600MB FRONTOGENIC FORCING COMBINED                
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LEVEL. LAPS/RUC                     
SOUNDINGS ALL APPEAR TOO DRY WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR              
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SATURATING CONDS. INITIAL LOOK AT GFS/NAM            
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM LAYER WOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND            
1C AT IND AND WITH ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED AND SFC WET BULBS BELOW              
32F EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY BE SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NE HALF             
WITH A BETTER CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER.               
FOR TODAY...I WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP CHCS AT 40-50 PERCENT GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OR AMOUNTS BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED                 
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. GFS IS PRODUCING 0.05 OF              
LIQUID QPF TODAY...WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE EVEN TRACE                  
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A HAZARD GIVEN COLD                 
SFC/PAVEMENT TEMPS. WE FAVOR THE COLDER BUFKIT TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST SPOTS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING               
AFTER 18Z.                                                                      
TONIGHT...AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT WILL            
SHIFT N OF THE CWA WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS CONDS MAY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND WE WILL KEEP THIS                 
TREND IN THE FCST. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SFC WET                
BULBS WILL STAY AOA FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS                
LIQUID AS THE CURRENT FCST HAS REFLECTED.                                       
TUES...LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS IL AND             
NW INDIANA. THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT ALTER WITH                 
HIGHS A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.                                                   
TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WITH             
THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO KY WHICH KEEPS             
MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM IS WEAKER AND                
MORE PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF/SREF OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THIS IDEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW                   
THROUGH 12Z WEDS. CURRENT FCST ALSO LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.                  
WEDS AND BEYOND...COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS. A MAJOR PATTERN             
SHIFT APPEARS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A  DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SW FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.            
THIS WOULD TURN OUR WX WET BY NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 080600Z TAFS                                     
MAIN PROBLEM DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR AVIATION WILL BE                   
INCREASING WINDS TOWARD END OF THE TAFS. THE TAFS WILL BEGIN WITH               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE            
EAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO             
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY AC CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH IT. WINDS WILL             
SHIFT TO THE S BY 12Z AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS BY 16Z. A STRONG                
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IL ARND 06Z. PRESSURE GRADIENT                
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES INDIANA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO              
GUST TO 20-25KTS AFTER 04Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FROM            
THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SATURATED AFTER 090600Z.              
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION              
OF THE IND TAF. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO NEAR THE END OF               
THE IND TAF. AFTER 090800Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KTS WITH                 
GUSTS ARND 30KTS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN                
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A            
TERRE HAUTE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SH                                                                   
PUBLIC...CO                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
345 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                 
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED                                 
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
JUST HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE            
PERIOD SO VRF CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT               
JKL WHERE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING              
AND COULD DROP A FEW SPITS OF SNOW OR RAIN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE            
ADDED A TEMPO AT JKL FROM 10Z THROUGH 14Z FOR LOWER BUT STILL VFR               
CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. FOR THE REST JUST INCLUDED SOME              
VCSH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD WILL START TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHORTLY AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING FROM              
THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME              
GUSTINESS EXPECTED LATE...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                  
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM...RAY                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
411 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON               
BAY EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW                   
ENGLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN                   
PACIFIC IS MOVING TROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE             
BLANKETING EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ONTARIO AS A LOW CONTINUES TO              
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTH                  
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE              
OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING SOME WARMER GULF AIR INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TODAY WHILE THE                   
MONTANA TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR               
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO LOOKING               
FOR LAKE MICHIGAN DELTA-T`S ONLY AROUND 15C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY             
SO NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. STILL WITH AN                  
INCREASE OF Q-VECTOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SYSTEM TYPE SNOWS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.              
GUIDANCE STILL POINTING TO THE SOUTHERN U.P. MOSTLY LIKELY TO                   
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY.              
LOCALLY RUN WRF ALSO SUGGEST A LES BAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS             
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S.                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE            
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
EJECTED OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW            
WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SHIFT               
INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ASCENT                
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND WISCONSIN.                    
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO                 
BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL. PLAN TO GO WITH A WW ADVISORY FOR             
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                 
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER THE              
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A                   
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE             
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO MINNESOTA CAUSING THE DELTA-T             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL PRODUCE SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 20F. THUS WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE...CONDITIONS LOOK             
FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL            
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTH WIND OVER THE               
CWA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE DELTA-T`S             
OF AROUND 24C. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND              
THE LOW LEVEL DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO LES OVER THE AREA.            
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LOWEST                     
INVERSION WILL REMAIN AROUND 3.5K TO 4K SO WILL KEEP LES LIKELY IN              
THE GRIDS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY              
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS                
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON                      
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THIS LONGWAVE                
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT                     
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DELTA-T`S                 
AROUND 20C SUGGESTION KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY LES AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE REST              
OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE ANOTHER LOW SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH              
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE                        
AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH DELTA-T`S AROUND 16C.              
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING RIDGE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS                 
THROUGH. LES WILL END AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND                      
SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SNOWFALL WILL              
REMAIN LIMITED. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS PER ECMWF/UKMET ON               
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST AGAIN GENERATING MORE               
LES.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE             
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS                
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF WAA SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM               
THE WEST LATE MON...EVENTUALLY LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR AT KSAW               
AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO IFR AT KCMX MON EVENING. KCMX WILL FARTHER               
AWAY FROM BEST MOISTENING/LIFT SO THUS IFR CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD              
BE MORE TRANSIENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NORTH WINDS WILL            
REACH 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY            
NIGHT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF WITH            
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR/INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. AS THE HIGH MOVES             
TO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH              
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST/4PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON               
      TO 11 AM EST/10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.                           
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1221 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A GENERAL             
WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES JET                    
TRACKING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALSO TO NOTE IS              
AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE FLOW...A               
TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND A FEW SHRTWVS WERE MOVING             
THROUGH ERN ND AND SRN MN. OVER UPPER MI...DESPITE THE WNW                      
FLOW...500MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS              
OVER THE CWA HAS MOVED OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. THESE HEIGHT RISES HAVE            
RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE...PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF MI...LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.              
DRY AIR AND THE SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH)...HAVE             
HELPED TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.                   
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...                  
THOUGH...WITH 850MB READINGS OF -15C AT GRB...-20C AT CWPL AND AT               
APX. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING              
ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION                   
OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DPVA FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS CROSSING ND/MN. CLOUDS THICKEN UP THE FARTHER WEST YOU                  
GO...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING -N FROM NW MN             
INTO WRN WI. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS RETURNS FARTHER TO THE NE INTO               
FAR WRN UPPER MI...BUT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THAT             
HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE            
GROUND. THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE TIGHT BACK AT            
12Z...WITH BIS AND ABR SHOWING -6C TEMP/0C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT               
850MB COMPARED TO THE -13C TEMP/21C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT MPX.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
TROUGH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES DOWN              
INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED             
TO BE OVER UTAH AND CO WHILE THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST INTO WEST                 
TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW            
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE                    
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...A FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TURN MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW CHANGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHRTWVS IN ND/MN              
MOVE TO THE ESE INTO THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT...SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA FORCING FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS...MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z SINCE THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST                    
700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. A FEW TENTHS OF                      
ACCUMULATION AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION. AFTER                    
06Z...DNVA IS INDICATED TO CROSS UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHRTWVS. SOME MORE WARM ADVECTION SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z              
AS WELL...STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL               
WI. THIS SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT JET AT 250MB PROGGED OVER              
UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY...THE UPPER              
JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PLACING UPPER MI IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION AND INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN             
TO WARM FROM -14 TO -16C AT 06Z MON TO -8 TO -10C AT 00Z TUE.                   
THEREFORE...THE -SN THAT DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT               
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS AGAIN DO              
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT THAT                     
STRONG...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COULD PICK UP AN               
INCH. HAVE RAISED POPS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.             
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE                  
EXPECTED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND. THE CURRENT SFC RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE             
CWA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY            
FLOW. SINCE 850MB TEMPS REMAIN COLD TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZES WILL               
DEVELOP OFF LOWER MI THAT CONVERGE ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SINGLE             
BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. TRENDS FROM 06Z RUNS AND NOW INTO             
THE 12Z RUNS FROM THE NAM...GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW AND RUC 13 SUGGEST              
THE BAND MOSTLY IMPACTS MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...SINCE THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY SW. WINDS BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WHICH MEANS               
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD WITH TIME...BUT LIKELY            
NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN FAR EASTERN DELTA AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND REGIONAL            
CANADIAN THAT THE BAND COULD FALL APART. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS              
IDEA YET...AND STAY WITH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN/RUC 13 THAT KEEP             
IT TOGETHER. NONETHELESS...SINCE MORE OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO                
STAY OVER MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THIS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW              
THAT COULD HAVE FELL IN OUR CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS OUT              
OF THE BAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ARE ONLY UP TO 0.20 OF AN                     
INCH...WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS THAT SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON                
AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 1 MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH MAYBE             
4 INCHES. AGAIN..THIS ASSUMES THE BAND CAN STAY IN ONE SPOT. HAVE               
DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH AND NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORY...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT OF THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER OR STAYING IN ONE              
SPOT.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...WITH FIRST MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH -SN TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER                  
STRATUS DECK. RAISED LOWS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ON              
MONDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB               
INTO THE 20S. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH HEAT            
FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
LONGER TERM 00Z TUE ONWARD...                                                   
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SE            
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. 00Z TUE. THERE IS            
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST AND AFFECT THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINING              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MON NIGHT WITH THE CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT              
BY 12Z TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERN CWA IS ON             
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM               
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM THEN SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB                  
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING ON WED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AGAIN. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES 00Z TUE WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. SOUTHERN CWA              
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR SOMETHING OUT FOR MON             
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MENOMINEE SEEING ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW             
AT THAT TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AIR IS COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR LAKE             
EFFECT AND WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS BRINGING SNOW TO THE              
AREA...LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SYSTEM SNOW TO THE SOUTH.               
EVEN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MIGHT NEED ADVISORIES FOR COMBO             
OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYSTEM SNOW. DO NOT THINK LAKE EFFECT WILL GET               
OUT OF HAND EVEN WITH THE NORTH WIND FLOW THAT DEVELOPS EVEN THOUGH             
IT IS COLD ENOUGH. MAIN FACTOR IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM A COLD              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS DRY AIR WOULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS              
AND COVERAGE.                                                                   
LIFT AND MOISTURE THEN RETURNS ON WED AGAIN ON THE I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IN                
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS FAST AS IT DOES ON WED...AND WILL NOT USE                
THIS MODEL AFTER WED. WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THIS CLIPPER BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA            
WED NIGHT AND THU INSTEAD AND THEY ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD AND               
WILL USE THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM IN WED NIGHT AND THU                    
INSTEAD.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU WHICH LINGERS THROUGH SUN. THINGS WILL            
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH GETS HUNG UP IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE               
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING            
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR EVERYWHERE WITH EITHER               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT...OR COMBO OF THEM BOTH BRINGING             
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SEE ANY REAL SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD            
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES THE SAME WHICH WERE             
NEAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO STAY AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE             
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS                
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF WAA SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM               
THE WEST LATE MON...EVENTUALLY LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR AT KSAW               
AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO IFR AT KCMX MON EVENING. KCMX WILL FARTHER               
AWAY FROM BEST MOISTENING/LIFT SO THUS IFR CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD              
BE MORE TRANSIENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HEAD EAST                      
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.            
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES ACROSS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS             
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE             
TO 30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE            
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR ON WED. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KT ON            
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF CANADA INTO              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
256 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT TODAY AND HEADLINES. THE                  
GFS/RUC ARE INITIALIZING MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM...WHICH IS WAY                
TO DRY WITH POOR QPF PLACEMENT...EVEN ON THE NEW 06Z RUN.                       
THEREFORE...WILL RIDE WITH THE GFS THIS MORNING AND THE RUC FOR                 
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.                                                             
FOR TODAY...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL               
MOVE OVER SE ND INTO WC MN. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH DEEP/SUSTAINED                
LIFT PER OMEGA/FGEN FIELDS AND PWATS UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE                 
SOUTH. PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT WHEN 0.5 INCH PWATS ARE                   
PRESENT DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOMEONE USUALLY GETS 3-5 INCHES              
OF SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY                 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ROCKFORD TO MAYVILLE TO PARKERS PRAIRIE                
LINE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL IN SE ND. THE LATEST RUC                    
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW                      
BAND...THAT WOULD PLACE GFK CLOSER TO ADVISORY TYPE SNOW...SO THE               
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO WATCH. THE SNOW WILL ALSO FALL DURING AT                  
LEAST THE MORNING RUSH HOUR AND PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING RUSH IN                
THE SOUTH...SO TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW COVERED ROADS. WINDS             
SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE LATE                
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO W/ ONLY 20-25KT               
TO MIX FROM 850MB BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE WINDS              
SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTH BY 03Z. TEMPS                    
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 0 FOR MOST AREAS...AND ANY CLEARING WILL                  
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER READINGS WITH FRESH SNOW. SOUNDINGS AND RH                
PROGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE                    
AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS.                                 
FOR TUE-FRI...A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A               
CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT/WED AND ANOTHER ONE FOR FRI. THE LATEST GFS               
IS VERY BULLISH ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...WITH A CLOSED LOW AND                    
DECENT MOISTURE. WE HAVE POPS GOING FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY                       
PERIOD...AND HARD TO FIND MUCH TIME WHEN THERE WON/T BE THE THREAT              
FOR SOME SNOW.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE ONCE SNOW MOVES IN FROM                
THE WEST. THE LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE AT THE DVL/GFK AND FARGO                
TAF SITES TODAY BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN BY TONIGHT.        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-          
     028-038-049-052.                                                           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ029-030-039-053.                                          
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002-003-027-029>031-040.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DK                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
559 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 081200Z TAFS.                                                    
THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. AN                 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND                 
SLEET TO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH              
TO CAUSE LOWERED CIGS OR VSBY BUT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IT WILL                
FREEZE ON SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 15Z THIS MORNING                
AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A DEVELOPING STRONG LOW                   
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL SEND WARMER AIR THIS WAY THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z. WINDS              
WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15KTS AND BEGIN TO GUST TO NEAR 25KTS LATE               
IN THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL DEVELOP AT            
IND IN THE LAST SIX HOURS BY 15Z TOMORROW MORNING AS RAIN ARRIVES.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.             
THEN ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS MON NIGHT-WEDS.                                   
ONLY MODEL HANDLING THE ONGOING PROCESSES AND RESULTING PRECIP IS               
THE GFS. NAM APPEARS TOO DRY WHILE NO MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON             
THE PRECIP. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR TO            
PRODUCE THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING.                                              
BEYOND TODAY...WILL USE THE SREF/ECMWF FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING                
FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM. ONLY CHANGE IS TO                 
DELAY THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                          
AT CURRENT...SFC MAP SHOWED A LOW ACROSS SE COLORADO WITH SE SFC LOW            
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM            
12 TO 16F ACROSS THE CWA. RESULTING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE WELL                 
BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BANDED RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING             
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS LOWERING TOWARD            
5KFT AND SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT LINCOLN IL. AND A MIX OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT STL INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO             
BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING 850-600MB FRONTOGENIC FORCING COMBINED                
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LEVEL. LAPS/RUC                     
SOUNDINGS ALL APPEAR TOO DRY WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR              
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SATURATING CONDS. INITIAL LOOK AT GFS/NAM            
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM LAYER WOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND            
1C AT IND AND WITH ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED AND SFC WET BULBS BELOW              
32F EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY BE SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NE HALF             
WITH A BETTER CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER.               
FOR TODAY...I WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP CHCS AT 40-50 PERCENT GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OR AMOUNTS BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED                 
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. GFS IS PRODUCING 0.05 OF              
LIQUID QPF TODAY...WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE EVEN TRACE                  
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A HAZARD GIVEN COLD                 
SFC/PAVEMENT TEMPS. WE FAVOR THE COLDER BUFKIT TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST SPOTS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING               
AFTER 18Z.                                                                      
TONIGHT...AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT WILL            
SHIFT N OF THE CWA WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS CONDS MAY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND WE WILL KEEP THIS                 
TREND IN THE FCST. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SFC WET                
BULBS WILL STAY AOA FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS                
LIQUID AS THE CURRENT FCST HAS REFLECTED.                                       
TUES...LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS IL AND             
NW INDIANA. THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT ALTER WITH                 
HIGHS A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.                                                   
TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WITH             
THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO KY WHICH KEEPS             
MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM IS WEAKER AND                
MORE PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF/SREF OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THIS IDEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW                   
THROUGH 12Z WEDS. CURRENT FCST ALSO LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.                  
WEDS AND BEYOND...COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS. A MAJOR PATTERN             
SHIFT APPEARS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A  DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SW FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.            
THIS WOULD TURN OUR WX WET BY NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ043-                
044-051>053-060>063-067>071.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JOHNSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1103 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION...TAKING THE                
OVERRUNNING LIGHT PRECIP THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CWA WITH IT. IN                 
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW AND           
MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO THINNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S            
ACROSS THE SW CWA...BUT ARE NOW JUST CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS             
THE FAR N AND NE. UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS THE           
TREAT HAS ENDED...HOWEVER MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLICK OR            
ICY SPOTS IN AN SPS THROUGH NOON IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAD BEEN PRECIP           
AND TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. OTHER THAN EXPIRING              
THE WSW...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AS IT STILL APPEARS            
THAT THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE.                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE             
AREA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS                    
DEVELOPED WITHIN A LARGER BAND OF WHAT IS MAINLY VIRGA. THIS IS                 
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KJKL. OTHERWISE...              
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WARMER AIR WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ENDING ANY FROZEN PRECIP                 
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY            
OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. A GRADIENT SOUTH WIND             
WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JP                                                           
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
650 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                           
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED                                              
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE             
AREA THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS                    
DEVELOPED WITHIN A LARGER BAND OF WHAT IS MAINLY VIRGA. THIS IS                 
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KJKL. OTHERWISE...              
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WARMER AIR WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ENDING ANY FROZEN PRECIP                 
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY            
OF RAIN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. A GRADIENT SOUTH WIND             
WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-                 
050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111-114.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY                                                            
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
640 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
UPDATED TO ADD A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE                    
AREA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF JACKSON. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT                 
THROUGH 10 AM EST.                                                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
JUST HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE            
PERIOD SO VRF CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT               
JKL WHERE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING              
AND COULD DROP A FEW SPITS OF SNOW OR RAIN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE            
ADDED A TEMPO AT JKL FROM 10Z THROUGH 14Z FOR LOWER BUT STILL VFR               
CIGS AND MVFR VIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. FOR THE REST JUST INCLUDED SOME              
VCSH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE             
END OF THE PERIOD WILL START TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHORTLY AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS                 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING FROM              
THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME              
GUSTINESS EXPECTED LATE...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                  
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-                 
050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111-114.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF                                                              
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1005 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SNOW HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR               
SWRN ZONES THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 2 MILES AT SEVERAL               
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THEREFORE HAVE                      
INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS             
OUR SRN TIER OF ZONES FROM PINE COUNTY EAST TO PRICE COUNTY. THE                
HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PRICE COUNTY WHERE THE                
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM WRAPS              
UP OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY DISINTEGRATE                   
SINCE 09Z. STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND               
FLURRIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.                   
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RUC13...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE              
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES                
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST A WINTER                  
WEATHER ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING IF MODEL TRENDS AND                         
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY PROGRESSION IN                       
APPRECIABLE QPF.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES INCLUDE WANING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE                 
NORTH SHORE AND SNOW EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN               
TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.                              
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY RATHER STEADILY               
SINCE ABOUT 07Z. CEILINGS AND VISBYS HAVE RISEN AT NEARBY ONSHORE               
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING SILVER BAY AND TWO HARBORS...WITH JUST                    
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. STILL...SNOW WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1                 
MILE WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GRAND MARAIS. WILL LIKELY LET                     
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6AM...ASSUMING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. THE                    
NAM12 SHOWS THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH               
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL                 
RH. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS SFC-85H WINDS TURN MORE               
SOUTHEASTERLY.                                                                  
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                     
WORKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE DETAILS               
OF THIS SYSTEM BETTER...INCLUDING TIMING. WE STILL BELIEVE THE                  
GREATEST PWATS...FGEN...AND OMEGA WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR                   
AREA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD REACH                
2 TO 3 INCHES BY EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER                 
JET STREAK WILL ALSO PASS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                           
TODAY...ALSO SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW                     
SHOWERS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                            
MORNING...SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS DULUTH BY 18Z...AND THEN QUICKLY                
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NW WI. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MOST LIKELY IN OUR FAR                
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                            
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY PERSIST IN NW WISC...ESPECIALLY SAWYER AND               
PRICE COUNTIES...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY                        
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP                          
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING.                                                   
FOR TUESDAY...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS CAA RETURNS                  
AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO -20C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z.               
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG               
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING               
AND PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.                          
.EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                    
MODELS ARE AGAIN CONFLICTING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                
FROM RUN TO RUN RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF LARGE               
SCALE FEATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN                
LAKES WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WITH SLOW WARMING               
ALOFT...SHORT WAVES AND CLIPPERS FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING LIGHT                  
SNOW RATHER THAN ISOLATED FLURRIES. A SERIES OF BITTER COLD HIGH                
PRESSURE AREAS FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND               
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SUCH HIGH WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                 
TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE COASTAL NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES                   
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONE CLIPPER WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...MOVE OVER                  
OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND DOWN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND               
A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER                      
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ALONG THE SAME TRACK...REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY               
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR                         
AREA...WITH COLD AIR CAUSING MORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE                 
WISCONSIN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HUGE COLD               
OUTBREAK POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS COULD               
RESULT IN A COLORADO LOW AND SOME IMPORTANT SNOW NEXT SUNDAY                    
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNW SHWRS WL END AS CONDS SLOLY IPV FM MVFR TO VFR UNDER PRSTNT                 
BKN/OVC SC THS MRNG. CONDS WL DTRT TO MVFR...THEN IFR S OF                      
DLH...IN SNW FM S TO N AS OVRRNG SNW SPRDS NWD INTO OUR AREA THS                
AFTN AND EVE. SNW SHUD END FM W TO E WITH CONDS RMNG MVFR UNDER                 
LO CLDS LT TNGT. LK EFCT SNW SHWRS WL CONT ALG THE WI SHORE OF LK               
SUPR ...WITH PSBL MVLIFR CONDS IN SM SHWRS THRUT TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  18   9  15  -8 /  60  50  10  10                                           
INL  17   0   6 -15 /  30  10  10  20                                           
BRD  22   8  14  -1 /  80  50  10  10                                           
HYR  22  16  20  -6 /  70  70  40  10                                           
ASX  22  18  20   0 /  50  60  40  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR PINE.                   
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BURNETT.                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     TUESDAY FOR SAWYER-WASHBURN.                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12 PM CST              
     TUESDAY FOR PRICE.                                                         
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BERDES/BETTWY                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
617 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY DISINTEGRATE                   
SINCE 09Z. STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND               
FLURRIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.                   
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RUC13...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE              
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES                
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST A WINTER                  
WEATHER ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING IF MODEL TRENDS AND                         
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY PROGRESSION IN                       
APPRECIABLE QPF.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES INCLUDE WANING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE                 
NORTH SHORE AND SNOW EVENT THAT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN               
TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.                              
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME OVER                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY RATHER STEADILY               
SINCE ABOUT 07Z. CEILINGS AND VISBYS HAVE RISEN AT NEARBY ONSHORE               
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING SILVER BAY AND TWO HARBORS...WITH JUST                    
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. STILL...SNOW WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1                 
MILE WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GRAND MARAIS. WILL LIKELY LET                     
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6AM...ASSUMING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. THE                    
NAM12 SHOWS THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH               
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL                 
RH. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS SFC-85H WINDS TURN MORE               
SOUTHEASTERLY.                                                                  
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                     
WORKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE DETAILS               
OF THIS SYSTEM BETTER...INCLUDING TIMING. WE STILL BELIEVE THE                  
GREATEST PWATS...FGEN...AND OMEGA WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR                   
AREA...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD REACH                
2 TO 3 INCHES BY EVENING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER                 
JET STREAK WILL ALSO PASS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                           
TODAY...ALSO SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW                     
SHOWERS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                            
MORNING...SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS DULUTH BY 18Z...AND THEN QUICKLY                
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NW WI. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MOST LIKELY IN OUR FAR                
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                            
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY PERSIST IN NW WISC...ESPECIALLY SAWYER AND               
PRICE COUNTIES...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY                        
WIDESPREAD CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP                          
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING.                                                   
FOR TUESDAY...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS CAA RETURNS                  
AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO -20C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z.               
FORECAST ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG               
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING               
AND PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.                          
..EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                   
MODELS ARE AGAIN CONFLICTING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                
FROM RUN TO RUN RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF LARGE               
SCALE FEATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN                
LAKES WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WITH SLOW WARMING               
ALOFT...SHORT WAVES AND CLIPPERS FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING LIGHT                  
SNOW RATHER THAN ISOLATED FLURRIES. A SERIES OF BITTER COLD HIGH                
PRESSURE AREAS FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND               
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FIRST SUCH HIGH WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                 
TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE COASTAL NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES                   
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONE CLIPPER WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...MOVE OVER                  
OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND DOWN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND               
A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER                      
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ALONG THE SAME TRACK...REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY               
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR                         
AREA...WITH COLD AIR CAUSING MORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALONG THE                 
WISCONSIN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HUGE COLD               
OUTBREAK POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS COULD               
RESULT IN A COLORADO LOW AND SOME IMPORTANT SNOW NEXT SUNDAY                    
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNW SHWRS WL END AS CONDS SLOLY IPV FM MVFR TO VFR UNDER PRSTNT                 
BKN/OVC SC THS MRNG. CONDS WL DTRT TO MVFR...THEN IFR S OF                      
DLH...IN SNW FM S TO N AS OVRRNG SNW SPRDS NWD INTO OUR AREA THS                
AFTN AND EVE. SNW SHUD END FM W TO E WITH CONDS RMNG MVFR UNDER                 
LO CLDS LT TNGT. LK EFCT SNW SHWRS WL CONT ALG THE WI SHORE OF LK               
SUPR ...WITH PSBL MVLIFR CONDS IN SM SHWRS THRUT TUE.                           
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  18   5  13  -8 /  60  40  10  10                                           
INL  17  -3   8 -15 /  30  10  10  20                                           
BRD  20   8  14  -1 /  70  30  10  10                                           
HYR  22   8  14  -6 /  70  70  40  10                                           
ASX  22  12  16   0 /  60  70  60  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BETTWY/EOM                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1104 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING WILL                  
MOVE EAST AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY TO PUSH MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE                
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED AT 1102 AM...SAT TRENDS SHOW AC DECK SPREADING BACK INTO                
NE PA...AND CLOSER INSPECTION OF RUC MID LVL RH DATA SUGGESTS                   
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN...WITH XCPTN            
OF NRN ONEIDA. GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. PREV BLO...                 
UPDATED AT 1005 AM...CRNT FCST ON TRACK. AC DECK HAS BEEN THINNING              
THIS MRNG WITH BREAKS ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE PA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES               
FOR THESE AREAS...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS ACRS THE FINGER                  
LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER. MINOR TWEEKS TO MAX TEMPS. PREV BLO...                
JUST A VERY FEW WEAK LES PLUMES LEFT ATTM. WITH SFC HIPRES                      
BLDG...XPCT ALL ACTIVITY TO END SHRTLY. WAA WILL BEGIN ONLY LATE                
IN THE DAY...SO WILL XPCT ONLY A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPS DESPITE                 
PTLY SUNNY SKIES. XPCT CI TO MVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE LRG DFRNCS IN THEIR SOLNS FOR THE UPCOMING               
EVENT. HWVR...BOTH NOW SHOW AN AREA OF FRONTOGENISIS MON NGT AND                
EARLY TUE DVLPG LGT PCPN. WHILE FRCG IS FAIRLY STRONG...VERY DRY                
AIR WILL LIMIT THE QPF. MODELS ALSO AGREE TO PUSH A WRM SECTOR DRY              
SLOT INTO THE AREA TUE. DFRNCS DVLP LTR TUE AND WED AS THE GFS                  
DVLPS A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOPRES AND HIGHER QPF...WHILE THE NAM                 
HAS A MUCH WEAKER SFC WV. ECMWF SEEMS TO LEAN TWRDS THE                         
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND THE GFS TREND APPEARS TO BE TO WEAKEN THE                 
LOW. THE STRONGER GFS LOW HAS EFFECTS THU TOO WITH MORE CAA BHD                 
THE LOW. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE AND NUETRAL WV...AND GIVEN THE MODEL              
TREND...XPCT THE WEAKER SOLN IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THE SYSTEM.                 
FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE ELCTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHGS TO THE FCST                 
FOR TUE NGT AND WED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF                 
THE SYSTEM. HWVR...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR MON NGT AND TUES                 
WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.                                                  
WITH THE APRCHG LOW...SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPS TRENDS WERE USED FOR               
THE GRIDS WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING MON AND TUE                 
NGT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
MEAN TROF WILL SLOWLY RECEDE THIS PERIOD, UNTIL THE PATTERN IS                  
MORE OR LESS ZONAL BY SUNDAY. IN THE INTERIM, FAST MOVING YET                   
VIGOROUS WAVES WILL SHOOT OUT OF SERN UNITED STATES AND UP THE                  
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL SNOWS.                
UNTIL THE PATTERN SHIFTS, TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR               
EARLY DECEMBER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT ITH FOR A FEW MORE              
HOURS, AND THEN DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. IN THE INTERIM WE                
CAN EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT THE ITH TERMINAL.                  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH WINDS                  
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.                                                         
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
MON NGT...BRIEF MVFR PSBL AT SYR/RM IN -SN.                                     
TUE-WED NGT...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR AS PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.                  
THU/THU NGT...SCT MVFR UPSTATE NY IN NW FLOW AND MULTIBAND LES.                 
FRI...VFR.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DGM                                                                  
NEAR TERM...                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONG TERM...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
215 PM PST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AT THE             
SURFACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS TO             
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND                 
THURSDAY...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK                
OFFSHORE WINDS. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE DRY BUT WITH COOLER                      
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP               
THIS WEEKEND AND AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH               
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...           
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO                   
COUNTIES...                                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
NO CHANGE FROM MORNING FORECAST REASONING...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                 
REBUILDING ALONG WEST COAST TODAY WILL SHIFT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND            
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY. THE RUC13 MODEL 1 HOUR FORECAST VALID             
AT 08/2200 UTC SHOWS A NORTHERLY JET STREAM OF +130 KT DROPPING DOWN            
THROUGH NEVADA WITH JET LEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                    
INCREASING TO +75KTS BY 09/0300 UTC. MESONET OBSERVATIONS OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS STILL SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH             
GUSTS 40 MPH. MODELS FORECAST THESE WINDS TO VEER TO NORTH TO                   
NORTHEAST TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE. THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IS STILL ABOUT 6 MILLIBARS ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST                    
CALIFORNIA BUT TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS             
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO -16 MILLIBARS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA              
COAST TO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL THESE FACTORS             
PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT.             
HOWEVER THE DEEP MARINE LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE...SEE AVIATION                 
DISCUSSION BELOW...WILL RETARD THE ONSET OF NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING            
THE INLAND EMPIRE VALLEY FLOORS UNTIL MID TUESDAY MORNING...ORANGE              
COUNTY COAST/SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND SAN            
DIEGO COUNTY COAST PERHAPS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. AM FORECASTING            
WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH IN SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS BY 4 AM TUESDAY                   
MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH THERE...AND GUSTS TO 55              
MPH FOR SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS BY 1 AM TUESDAY...SO WIND ADVISORY             
THERE. THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS/INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND             
ADVISORIES TOO BUT GUSTS OVER 45 MPH NOT EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED                
UNTIL AFTER 1000 AM TUESDAY...WHICH IS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS SO             
WILL DEFER ACTION ON THIS TO THE EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFT. NEAR THE               
COAST...INCLUDING SAN DIEGO COUNTY PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE             
LIKELY BY TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES             
UPWARD IN WIND PRONE AREAS DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD            
BE MUCH WARMER...10 TO 15 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE                    
MOUNTAINS AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...AND DRY AIR MASS ALLOWS             
MORE SOLAR RADIATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. FOR THURSDAY SLIGHTLY                
WARMER AGAIN BUT LESS WIND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENED ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS               
STORM TRACK LOWERS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SETTLES OVER THE             
REGION BY SATURDAY. BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF MODELS FIRST              
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN. FOLLOWING            
THIS PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SHORT WAVES COME ACROSS THE AREA SPACED             
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS APART. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND POPS BUT              
LEFT SNOW LEVELS AS INHERITED AS COLDEST AIR/500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING             
BELOW 5460 METERS NOT FORECAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
081945Z...LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER                
DEPTH REMAINS AROUND 4500 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH               
TONIGHT BUT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY                   
TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW. MULTIPLE             
LAYERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCU WITH BASES RANGING BETWEEN                
2000 AND 4000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOUNTAINS               
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AT TIMES. RAPID CLEARING IS               
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE              
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER.                        
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED                   
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                     
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY               
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS WITH ASSOCIATED UP AND            
DOWN DRAFTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF KONT.             
HORTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
HAVE DECIDED AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE UPCOMING MODERATE                 
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AS PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE MARINE AIR IS              
COMPLETELY SCOURED...SO DURATIONS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AND RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY UNLIKELY TO BE MET. ALSO THE GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCH                   
WETTING RAINS RECEIVED THANKSGIVING WEEK AND THE RECENT GREEN UP                
SHOULD PREVENT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FROM OCCURRING. INSTEAD WILL               
CARRY HEADLINES IN APPROPRIATE ZONES FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.              
&&                                                                              
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO             
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS.                                                          
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR            
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.                                         
PZ...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR                                                   
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON                                                        
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO                                          
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1154 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1033 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                               
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUBLESOME PRECIP IS                
FINALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE                       
TEMPERATURES ON THEIR WAY UP AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND              
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY INVOF THE                  
WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST                     
INCLUDE ONE FOR MORNING WORDING AND TO ELIMINATE THE FREEZING PRECIP MENTION.   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1149 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                               
VERY FEW RADAR ECHOS AT ALL THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP HAS SLOWLY               
COME TO AN END. MOSTLY MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND                   
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND                
CIGS ABOVE 12KFT. LATER THIS EVENING COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT               
OF SHOWERS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN                  
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO KEEP IT VC UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. BEYOND                 
THAT...RAIN PREDOMINANT WITH DROPPING CIGS. BY                                  
MORNING...VISIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
GETS TRAPPED BY BLANKET OF LOWERING CLOUDS. FOR NOW...HAVE WRITTEN              
FOR TRENDS...BUT DID DROP CIGS TO LIFR...KEEPING VSBYS UP JUST                  
BARELY. BUT IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...COULD SEE THE VSBYS DROP TO                
LIFR AS WELL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                                        
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 325 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                
00Z GFS AND SREF MODELS ARE HANDLING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET                  
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND WILL FOLLOW THIS MODEL                
WITH HANDLING THIS LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT SHIFTS NE OF                  
CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY. RUC AND NAM KEPT IT DRY OVER CENTRAL/SE IL                
BUT GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF              
A SPRINGFIEND TO MATTOON TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. MODELS THEN SHOW                
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF IA/WI TONIGHT AND TUE AS LOW                    
PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES. MOSTLY RAIN OVER CENTRAL/SE IL FOR THIS EVENT. FORECAST                  
CHALLENGE IS WHEN RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND                
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.                                                            
09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SE                
CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO INTO              
CENTRAL IL. A SMALL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL               
MO TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET              
AND LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL MO AROUND ST LOUIS                    
EASTWARD INTO SE IL. ALSO PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET                
AND LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS QUINCY TO TAYLORVILLE AND                        
EFFINGHAM. THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED AS FAR NE AS JACKSONVILLE                 
AND SPRINGFIELD TO FLORA.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                     
JUST ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING UNTIL 10 AM               
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72. AS FAR NORTH AS CHRISTIAN...SHELBY...                  
MOULTRIE...COLES AND EDGAR. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL                  
TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DIMINISH/END LATE THIS MORNING AS SMALL                  
SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND EXITS ENE OF SE IL. REST OF DAY THEN LOOKS               
DRY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL. JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT                
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NW OF I-55.                                                 
560 DM 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA WILL MOVE TOWARD                
NM/NW TX BY SUNSET WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.             
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY SW OF                
IL TODAY. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NE OF I-74 TO THE                   
UPPER 40S FROM SPRINGFIELD TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW. LOWS TONIGHT STAY               
ABOVE FREEZING FROM 35 TO 40F. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE INTO                      
CENTRAL MO BY DAWN TUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING NE                
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TUE AS                 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES CENTRAL IL BY NOON TUE AND NORTHERN                     
INDIANA BY SUNSET TUE WHILE NEW LOW DEVELOPS IN MID MS VALLEY.                  
COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE IL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE                 
MORNING. SPC HAS GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH OF I-72 TUE. SHOULD              
HAVE DECENT RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER                    
VALUES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD                  
INTO CENTRAL/SE IL AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND JET DYNAMICS.                     
RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON NW OF              
I-55 AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 0C. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW               
OVER EASTERN IL DURING TUE EVENING. BUT PRECIPITATION MUCH LIGHTER              
BY THEN SO ONLY HAVE BETWEEN A HALF AND 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF                
DECATUR WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BY GALESBURG. HIGHS TUE TO RANGE FROM             
THE UPPER 30S NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG TO 50 TO 55F IN                   
SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ACROSS THE OH                  
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WED WITH LIGHT                  
SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE SE OF                 
THE OH RIVER TUE NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR              
TUE NIGHT AND WED ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM. CANADIAN HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IL BY SUNSET WED WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS                     
DIMINISHING. LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS WED NIGHT.                                  
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE              
MIDWEST WED THROUGH FRI WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS                
BEEN THE NORM DURING THE PAST MONTH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW             
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHT QPF OVER CENTRAL IL LATER                 
THU NIGHT/FRI. WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW IF PRECIPITATION             
DID OCCUR. IL GETS MORE INTO A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND                
WITH TROF DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING               
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD MODIFY TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL                
THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF IS 24 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT              
INTO CENTRAL IL BY SUNSET SUNDAY WHILE GFS DOES NOT BRING THE COLD              
FRONT INTO CENTRAL IL UNTIL SUNSET MON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY                  
BRING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPIATION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING NEEDS              
TO BE RESOLVED.                                                                 
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1202 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAFS.                                                    
MIXED FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF ALL THE SITES. VFR            
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AFTER 8Z. WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE                   
ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR             
IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. TIMING IS BASED ON SNDINGS AND THERMAL                 
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENUF FOR ALL PRECIP TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN              
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND START TO GUST OVERNIGHT AS                
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.             
THEN ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS MON NIGHT-WEDS.                                   
ONLY MODEL HANDLING THE ONGOING PROCESSES AND RESULTING PRECIP IS               
THE GFS. NAM APPEARS TOO DRY WHILE NO MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON             
THE PRECIP. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL OBS AND RADAR TO            
PRODUCE THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING.                                              
BEYOND TODAY...WILL USE THE SREF/ECMWF FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING                
FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM. ONLY CHANGE IS TO                 
DELAY THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHCS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                          
AT CURRENT...SFC MAP SHOWED A LOW ACROSS SE COLORADO WITH SE SFC LOW            
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM            
12 TO 16F ACROSS THE CWA. RESULTING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE WELL                 
BELOW FREEZING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BANDED RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING             
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. SFC OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS LOWERING TOWARD            
5KFT AND SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT LINCOLN IL. AND A MIX OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT STL INTO SOUTHERN IL. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO             
BE A RESULT OF DEVELOPING 850-600MB FRONTOGENIC FORCING COMBINED                
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LEVEL. LAPS/RUC                     
SOUNDINGS ALL APPEAR TOO DRY WHILE THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR              
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SATURATING CONDS. INITIAL LOOK AT GFS/NAM            
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE WARM LAYER WOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND            
1C AT IND AND WITH ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED AND SFC WET BULBS BELOW              
32F EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY BE SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NE HALF             
WITH A BETTER CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TOWARD THE IL BORDER.               
FOR TODAY...I WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP CHCS AT 40-50 PERCENT GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT OR AMOUNTS BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED                 
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP. GFS IS PRODUCING 0.05 OF              
LIQUID QPF TODAY...WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE EVEN TRACE                  
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD POSE A HAZARD GIVEN COLD                 
SFC/PAVEMENT TEMPS. WE FAVOR THE COLDER BUFKIT TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO               
TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOST SPOTS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING               
AFTER 18Z.                                                                      
TONIGHT...AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC-850MB WARM FRONT WILL            
SHIFT N OF THE CWA WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS CONDS MAY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND WE WILL KEEP THIS                 
TREND IN THE FCST. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SFC WET                
BULBS WILL STAY AOA FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS                
LIQUID AS THE CURRENT FCST HAS REFLECTED.                                       
TUES...LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS IL AND             
NW INDIANA. THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT ALTER WITH                 
HIGHS A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.                                                   
TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WITH             
THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO KY WHICH KEEPS             
MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM IS WEAKER AND                
MORE PROGRESSIVE. ECMWF/SREF OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THIS IDEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW                   
THROUGH 12Z WEDS. CURRENT FCST ALSO LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD.                  
WEDS AND BEYOND...COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDS. A MAJOR PATTERN             
SHIFT APPEARS ON TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A  DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS                 
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH SW FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.            
THIS WOULD TURN OUR WX WET BY NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND.                  
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
PUBLIC...CO                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1159 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION...TAKING THE                
OVERRUNNING LIGHT PRECIP THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CWA WITH IT. IN                 
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND LOW AND           
MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO THINNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S            
ACROSS THE SW CWA...BUT ARE NOW JUST CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS             
THE FAR N AND NE. UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS THE           
TREAT HAS ENDED...HOWEVER MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLICK OR            
ICY SPOTS IN AN SPS THROUGH NOON IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAD BEEN PRECIP           
AND TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. OTHER THAN EXPIRING              
THE WSW...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AS IT STILL APPEARS            
THAT THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE.                              
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST IN              
THE FACE OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE               
PRESSURE AND THERMAL PATTERNS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT A DEVELOPING             
WARM FRONT WORKING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY. MOSAIC RADARS SHOW LIGHT             
RETURNS ARE ACCOMPANYING THESE CLOUDS WITH GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FEW             
AND FAR BETWEEN. BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVED IN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS           
NIGHT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES...ALREADY COLD AT THE START OF THE                   
NIGHT...TO FALL FURTHER ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE VALLEYS EDGING              
DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN THE RIDGES. EXPECT THIS DECLINE TO BE JUST               
ABOUT DONE...EXCEPT...PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS ARE ONLY            
NOW REACHING THERE. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START RISING TOWARD             
DAWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN FOR A TIME AND LIGHT               
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE DEPICTED THAT IN THE PRE FIRST               
PERIOD GRIDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY REMAIN DRY...WHICH                 
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF THE PCPN...FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...FROM           
REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO...WILL CERTAINLY BE MONITORING THE OBS             
AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.                
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TODAY AND            
TONIGHT BUCKLING THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A              
TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SPECIFICS...CHOSE           
TO FOLLOW THE NAM THE CLOSEST GIVEN ITS TYPICAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN           
THE NEAR TERM RESULTING FROM ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ALSO TOOK INTO              
CONSIDERATION THE SREF AND LATEST RUC FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE               
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND             
ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                                    
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NASCENT WARM FRONT AFFECTING               
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR           
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE THERMAL             
PROFILE A TOUCH OF MIXED PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TRIED TO                
DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE TRANSITORY           
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKLY TODAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW           
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR TONIGHT...           
AFFECTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES THROUGH THE              
CWA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN                
PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL             
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
WILL ALSO KEEP AN INVERSION FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT WITH            
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN VALLEYS. HAVE DEPICTED THESE                    
LOCATIONS COLDEST TONIGHT AND THE LAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING             
WINDS TOWARD DAWN. HELD ANY PCPN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z             
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TAKING A SLOWER TRACK EAST THAN FORECASTED BY             
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.                                                         
THE MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR TODAY AND LOOKED REASONABLE SO DID NOT             
DEVIATE MUCH...FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV                  
NUMBERS WHILE MAKING THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                     
VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP                
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE MOS CONSENSUS THIS MORNING AND THEN            
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.                
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                           
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ARE                 
STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE              
BREAK UP OF A FULL LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS BY DY3 WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHORT ENERGY            
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...THEN BREAKING OFF TO               
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY DY4...THU AS MAIN TROUGH               
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR               
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH AND                   
CONSEQUENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES              
IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG A              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LEADING UP TO             
TUESDAY...AND WHICH LOW BECOMES THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT EVENTUALLY                
PULLS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. SECOND EFFECT WOULD BE A              
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR              
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP AND JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE THE                    
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
BOTTOM LINE IS NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...THE TIMING OF THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IS SLOWER BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18              
HOURS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATEST TREND IN MODEL               
SOLUTIONS. THIS SLOWS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND             
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. TRIMMED POPS BACK                    
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT CAT POPS FOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT                
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME.                                        
OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE           
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTAL. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE BOUNDARY              
LAYER AND ALOFT APPEAR TO SET UP FAVORABLE JET COUPLING...RESULTING             
IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. FOLLOWED HPC NATIONAL                  
GUIDANCE FOR OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN             
POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A REAL SOAKER. IN ADDITION...H850 JET OF              
60KT TO 70KT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON               
TUESDAY. ATTM FEEL WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL MORE                 
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO OUR BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LAKE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE             
FINAL DECISION FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES OR SPS IN AN EFFORT TO                
AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT SPS PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...MADE                 
MINOR TWEAKS TOWARDS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE PRUDENT.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF           
THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF NOT JUST BEYOND THE            
FORECAST TIME PERIOD. A GRADIENT SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY            
AND POSSIBLY BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD               
FRONT. ONCE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DISSIPATES BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...             
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20KT EVERYWHERE...WITH GUSTS              
OF 30 TO 40KT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JP                                                           
LONG TERM....RAY                                                                
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVES               
EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WITH LEAD WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH            
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE                   
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED...THERE WON`T BE A WELL-DEFINED                         
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE WAVES.                  
CLOSER TO HOME...A GENERAL LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME IS PRESENT ACROSS             
THE FCST AREA WITH WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE UPPER                
LAKES. AHEAD OF THE TROF...SOME LES IS OCCURRING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN              
OVER THE SE FCST AREA IN LIGHT SRLY FLOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM                    
KGRB/KAPX SHOWED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -13C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO                
SUPPORT LES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/TUE)...                                                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BRING -SN NE INTO THE FCST AREA            
TONIGHT AS IT HEADS NE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA             
OF -SN FROM NEBRASKA TO CNTRL/SRN WI IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME                
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20KT/25KT                 
S/SW WINDS AT 850/700MB RESPECTIVELY AT SLATER IA. SO ASCENT IS NOT             
PARTICULARLY STRONG. TONIGHT...WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER VEER                
SLIGHTLY...CAUSING ASCENT TO SHIFT MORE E THAN N...AND THE NRN                  
PORTION OF ASCENT WEAKENS AS WINDS CROSS ISOBARS AT A DECREASING                
ANGLE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ WILL THEN LIFT NE TO THE LWR                 
LAKES REGION BY LATE TUE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE IS WELL-DEFINED               
NOW AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA...ALL MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE WEAKENING            
AS IT HEADS NE INTO INCREASING CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM. ACCOMPANYING              
SFC LOW ALSO WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...             
LARGER SCALE TROF TAKES ON AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. ALL OF THIS             
WILL CONSPIRE TO WORK AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR                  
DESPITE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET TO THE NE TO PROVIDE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SO...WHILE THE NRN EDGE OF SNOW                
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA...SEEMS               
REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE THE                
LIGHTER PCPN AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A TREND FROM THE 12Z MODELS                 
FOR LESS PCPN. EVEN WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS...AN ADVY IS STILL                   
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT.                
EXAMINATION OF GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN              
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH IS WELL ALOFT...ROUGHLY                    
10-15KFT AGL. THIS MAY WORK TO DECREASE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WITH              
ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FCST.              
EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES (00Z TONIGHT TO 18Z TUE)             
FROM MENOMINEE COUNTY TO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE                
CITY OF MENOMINEE. IF 12Z MODEL TRENDS OF LIGHTER PCPN CONTINUE IN              
UPCOMING RUNS...AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE SCALED BACK FURTHER AND ADVY             
MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED.                                                       
ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL GET INVOLVED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR                
LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS WINDS BECOME N TO NE. WITH LITTLE OVERLAP              
OF NRLY WINDS AND DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...LAKE INVOLVEMENT WILL             
BE LIMITED. SO...AWAY FROM THE ADVY AREAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                  
TONIGHT THRU TUE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE                  
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.                                 
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                                   
TUE NIGHT AND WED...AT 00Z WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED            
FROM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NRN MEXICO.                 
MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE                   
TROUGH...WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING UPPER MI AROUND 06Z WED...THEN                  
REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z THU. THE PROGRESSION OF             
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH MISSOURI              
INTO SE LOWER MI SUPPRESSED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF HERE. THIS                 
MEANS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PCPN IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUE SHOULD SHIFT             
EAST TUE EVENING. KEPT IN SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG LAKE MI IN THE                 
EVENING FOR TIMING ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TUE NIGHT INTO               
WED MORNING WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAUSED BY COLD               
AIR FLOWING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO                
DROP TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z WED...DEFINITELY SUFFICENT FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT. MOISTURE DOES DEPART FAIRLY QUICK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...              
AND AFTER 06Z WED WHEN THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST...INVERSIONS WILL              
LOWER. THEREFORE...NO SIGNFICANT LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED. IN                    
ADDITION...WINDS ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SHIFTING...WHICH WILL PREVENT              
ANY ONE SPOT FROM STAYING IN A BAND. A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFLY SNOW               
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR LAKE                       
SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAKE EFFECT WILL            
LIKELY DIMINISH MORE WED MORNING AS FLOW TURNS ANTICYCLONIC WITH A              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. IN FACT...SOUTH CENTRAL             
AND PERHAPS EVEN MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD SEE SOME SUN WED MORNING.              
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW             
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MARCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NRN MN. THIS IS A            
BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND REALLY LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAYS 12Z                
NAM WHICH WAS AN OUTLIER AT THE TIME. NOW ALL THE MODELS ARE ON                 
BOARD WITH THE FASTER SCENARIO...AND THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME -SN                 
ACROSS MN...NW WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...DEPENDING                     
ON HOW QUICK THE DRY AIR EXITS. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR             
CWA...THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DURING THIS                 
PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT. STAYED TOWARD THE                
COOLER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO BELOW AT NIGHT BECAUSE OF BREEZY               
CONDITIONS AND SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                            
WED NIGHT AND THU...MODELS BRING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...THEN LIFT IT TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON THU.                
MUCH OF WED NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM ADVECTION...WHICH WILL              
HELP BRING SNOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER            
MOST AREAS AND CAN ENVISION RAISING THEM TO CATEGORICAL IF THE 00Z              
MODEL CYCLE TONIGHT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. NAM                  
SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT...THE PROBLEM            
IS SOME LACK OF MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST AN             
INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE EXISTS A                      
POSSIBLITY OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR                 
EASTERN CWA. LATE WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION COMES IN AS THE COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI. IT                   
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS ARE MAINTAINED AFTER 06Z               
FOR WESTERN UPPER MI. FOR THU...WITH THE CLIPPER HEADING OFF TO THE             
NE...COLD ADVECTION GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE MAIN DEAL.               
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z FRI. WIND FLOW            
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF               
THE LAKE EFFECT TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE.            
SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN...ESPECIALLY            
WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND. REGARDING TEMPS...RAISED THEM QUITE A BIT              
WED NIGHT TO A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH BREEZY SW FLOW AND                
PCPN HELPING TO HOLD READINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB THU MORNING                
BEFORE MORE COLD AIR COMES IN IN THE AFTERNOON TO EITHER HOLD                   
READINGS STEADY OR HAVE THEM FALL. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO                 
THUS TEMPS.                                                                     
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO A STRONG                  
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT IS THAT             
BY 12Z SUN...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SW. THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MORE                
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GETTING OUT INTO SUN AND MON SINCE SW FLOW             
IS USUALLY PRETTY ACTIVE. FOR THU NIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF COLD                 
AIR WILL ENTER THE CWA BEHIND THURSDAYS CLIPPER...MEANING SOME MORE             
LAKE EFFECT FOR WEST AND NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. ECMWF 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z FRI. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS              
ON FRI...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. THE RETURN               
FLOW COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH THE             
LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS                     
INDICATED TO HEAD TOWARDS UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DVPA FORCING              
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW            
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A              
LAKE ENHANCED BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD DEVELOP...GIVEN THAT                 
850-LAKE SFC DELTA TS ARE 11-14C. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS              
AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER SAT...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.               
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS...A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO BY SAT EVENING. THE 00Z                        
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS LOW NE ACROSS                
UPPER MI LATE SUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 06Z GFS IS SLOWER                    
BRINGING UP THIS LOW...NOT HAVING IT CROSS UNTIL MON. THE REASON FOR            
THE SLOWER GFS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO THE CLIPPER ON SAT WHERE IT IS            
QUITE A BIT DEEPER. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES PROVIDE NO HELP EITHER IN                 
DETERMINING WHICH SCENARIO MIGHT BE CORRECT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT                
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL ENTRAIN ENOUGH GULF OF MEXICO                  
WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD A WET SNOW...WHICH COULD ALSO CHANGE              
TO RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE                 
WHICH LEANS A BIT MORE TO THE ECMWF IDEA...BUT STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH            
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO RAIN. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FORECAST               
WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON FOR SYNOPTIC                
INDUCED SNOW...EITHER FROM WARM ADVECTION OR MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS            
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUN. WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                         
12Z GFS CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...GIVING A LITTLE MORE                  
CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A BIT               
CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS AS WELL. DUE TO ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE                  
SHORTER TERM AND HOW FAR OUT THE SYSTEM FOR SUN/MON IS IN                       
TIME...WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW FOR RAISING TEMPS MORE AND                      
MENTIONING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN HRS AT KCMX AND FOR A               
FEW MORE HRS AT KSAW AS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE S MAY SLIP BACK N BY             
LATE AFTN. AS CYCLONIC NERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRES            
ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS...PLAN ON                
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME -SN TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE                
FROM MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO             
THE TRACK OF THE LOW/DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPERIENCE A MORE FAVORABLE            
UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN HOLD ON THRU THE             
END OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS.                 
BEING FARTHER FROM LOW TRACK AND LACKING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPING                  
WIND...CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON`T FALL ANY LOWER THAN MVFR AT KCMX               
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRES TROF ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL DRIFT S TONIGHT. LOW PRES             
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE TROF...REACHING               
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT WINDS TO               
BECOME N AND RAMP UP TONIGHT THRU TUE MORNING. SINCE LOW IS                     
WEAKENING...IT APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND            
25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE                 
FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT TUE MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KT TUE EVENING ON            
LAKE SUPERIOR...IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY WED                 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST LATE WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES            
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT...CAUSING SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30                
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THU AND DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25             
KNOTS. FURTHER DIMINISHING WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF                
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS            
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.             
THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND INCREASE TO             
POSSIBLY 30 KT ON EASTERN SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH              
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY                     
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NE AT UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT OVER                   
WESTERN SUPERIOR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVY 7 PM EST/6PM CST/ TO 11 AM EST/10 AM CST/               
     TUE MIZ012>014.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON/AJ                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 411 AM EST                                               
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON               
BAY EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW                   
ENGLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN                   
PACIFIC IS MOVING TROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE             
BLANKETING EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ONTARIO AS A LOW CONTINUES TO              
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTH                  
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE              
OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING SOME WARMER GULF AIR INTO THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 411 AM EST                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY TODAY WHILE THE                   
MONTANA TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE              
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR               
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO LOOKING               
FOR LAKE MICHIGAN DELTA-T`S ONLY AROUND 15C THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY             
SO NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. STILL WITH AN                  
INCREASE OF Q-VECTOR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SYSTEM TYPE SNOWS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.              
GUIDANCE STILL POINTING TO THE SOUTHERN U.P. MOSTLY LIKELY TO                   
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY.              
LOCALLY RUN WRF ALSO SUGGEST A LES BAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS             
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S.                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE            
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE                
EJECTED OUT OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW            
WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SHIFT               
INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ASCENT                
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND WISCONSIN.                    
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P. TO                 
BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL. PLAN TO GO WITH A WW ADVISORY FOR             
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                 
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE                  
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER THE              
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A                   
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE             
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO MINNESOTA CAUSING THE DELTA-T             
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL PRODUCE SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 20F. THUS WITH THE AVAILABLE             
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE...CONDITIONS LOOK             
FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND UPPER              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL            
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTH WIND OVER THE               
CWA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE DELTA-T`S             
OF AROUND 24C. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND              
THE LOW LEVEL DELTA-T`S CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO LES OVER THE AREA.            
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LOWEST                     
INVERSION WILL REMAIN AROUND 3.5K TO 4K SO WILL KEEP LES LIKELY IN              
THE GRIDS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY              
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS                
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON                      
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THIS LONGWAVE                
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT                     
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DELTA-T`S                 
AROUND 20C SUGGESTION KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING HEAVY LES AT THIS               
TIME.                                                                           
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE REST              
OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
WHILE ANOTHER LOW SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH              
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE                        
AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH DELTA-T`S AROUND 16C.              
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING RIDGE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS                 
THROUGH. LES WILL END AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND                      
SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SNOWFALL WILL              
REMAIN LIMITED. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS PER ECMWF/UKMET ON               
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST AGAIN GENERATING MORE               
LES.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN HRS AT KCMX AND FOR A               
FEW MORE HRS AT KSAW AS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE S MAY SLIP BACK N BY             
LATE AFTN. AS CYCLONIC NERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRES            
ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS...PLAN ON                
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME -SN TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE FROM           
MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW/DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXPERIENCE A MORE FAVORABLE                
UPSLOPE NE WIND COMPONENT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN HOLD ON THRU THE             
END OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS.                 
BEING FARTHER FROM LOW TRACK AND LACKING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPING                  
WIND...CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON`T FALL ANY LOWER THAN MVFR AT KCMX               
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES              
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON              
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NORTH WINDS WILL            
REACH 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY            
NIGHT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF WITH            
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR/INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. AS THE HIGH MOVES             
TO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH              
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
    WINTER WEATHER ADVY 7 PM EST/6PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST/                 
     10 AM CST/ TUE MIZ012>014.                                                 
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...DLG                                                       
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1053 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH HIGH                      
PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE S. WHEN COMPARING THE                 
MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...SO              
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE. AREA RADARS CONTINUE                
TO SHOW THE BEST ECHOS CONFINED TO CENTRAL THROUGH SE ND WITH                   
WEAKER ONES OVER PARTS OF NW AND WC MN. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO                 
FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES                       
CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND S OF GFK TO BJI.                                  
MODELS KEEP BEST 700MB LIFT AND 850MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS               
SE ND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE N AREAS DRY OUT AS                     
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS. THUS...STILL EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FROM N               
TO S TODAY. ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT HAD AS MUCH SNOW AS PREVIOUSLY                    
EXPECTED IN THE N AREAS...TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES STILL SEEM REASONABLE       
FOR PARTS OF SE ND AND WC MN. AS FAR AS WINDS...STILL COULD SEE                 
SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SO                
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. ONLY REAL               
CHANGE WAS TO TRIM POPS AND SNOWFALL TOTALS IN N PARTS. REST OF                 
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE TODAY AS INVERTED TROF                   
FOCUSES SNOWFALL ACROSS N PLAINS. WINDS TO TURN MORE N THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT TODAY AND HEADLINES. THE                  
GFS/RUC ARE INITIALIZING MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM...WHICH IS WAY                
TO DRY WITH POOR QPF PLACEMENT...EVEN ON THE NEW 06Z RUN.                       
THEREFORE...WILL RIDE WITH THE GFS THIS MORNING AND THE RUC FOR                 
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.                                                             
FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTH BY 03Z. TEMPS                    
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...AND ANY CLEARING WILL               
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER READINGS WITH FRESH SNOW. SOUNDINGS AND RH                
PROGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BE                    
AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS.                                 
FOR TUE-FRI...A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A               
CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT/WED AND ANOTHER ONE FOR FRI. THE LATEST GFS               
IS VERY BULLISH ON THE FRI SYSTEM...WITH A CLOSED LOW AND DECENT                
MOISTURE. WE HAVE POPS GOING FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD...AND                 
HARD TO FIND MUCH TIME WHEN THERE WON/T BE THE THREAT FOR SOME                  
SNOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ024-          
     028>030-038-039-049-052-053.                                               
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002-          
     003-027-029>031-040.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
257 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND WINTER               
STORM EVOLUTION. SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FORMING OVER AREAS                
ALREADY HIT BY FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO                
HAVE A HARD TIME LATCHING ON TO INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...GENERALLY                 
DIMINISHES THE SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH                    
RUC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE +SN THROUGH 03Z. COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE            
CWA AND PUSHING SOUTH. A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP ALREADY BEING                
RECORDED AT KABR/KMBG IN LAST 2 HOURS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL              
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW. HAVE NOT CANCELED                  
ADVISORY AS SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AS FAR WEST AS                         
KMBG...ALONG WITH REPORTS OF FZDZ JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.                 
FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS EXTREME                
COLD FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. PEEK OF COLD AIR ARRIVES                          
TUESDAY...WITH H925 TEMPERATURES TO -15C IN SPOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE DROP               
OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 06Z              
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RADIATE WELL TOMORROW NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION                    
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES NEXT CLIPPER                    
SYSTEM WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA. H925 TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE              
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH COLD FRONT NOT REACHING THE CWA UNTIL THE THE              
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO            
THE NEW TRACK...WILL DECREASE POPS TO SLGT CHANCE.                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                            
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH                
JUST SOME MINOR TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES. A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE                 
COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE DAKOTAS               
BY EVENING...AND ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK              
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE                     
DAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE                       
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DECENT AREA OF LIFT SHOWING UP ON THE              
TIME SECTIONS...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING. THE UPPER FLOW                  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A WEAK AREA OF PVA                       
REMAINING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CWA. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL                    
SLIDE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...KEEPING THE AREA DRY DURING THE               
DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE                    
BACKSIDE OF IT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ONTO THE                 
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DIG SOUTHWARD                                
SATURDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME                 
SOUTHWESTERLY. A SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN                   
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN               
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN ELONGATES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                
TO COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE              
LOW AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO                  
NOSE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. WILL KEEP A SCHC                
MENTION SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON              
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE HIGH DROPS OVER THE PLAINS                      
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY AND                           
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND AS H85                       
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE                   
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.               
WILL LIKELY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST SUBZERO LOWS OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT               
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND                       
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL BUT THE                     
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR SOUTH               
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WHEATON TO MURDO...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS              
LIKELY. KATY AND KPIR WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE SNOW. THE SNOW               
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD                
BE OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING             
     FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DAY-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-HUGHES-JONES-                  
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-STANLEY-SULLY-                     
     WALWORTH.                                                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUFFALO-            
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DEUEL-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-SPINK.                  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG                
     STONE-TRAVERSE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...PARKIN                                                              
AVIATION...PARKIN                                                               
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd