AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                             
 400 AM MST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM...ONCE AGAIN WINDS AND TEMPERATURE THE BIGGEST FCST                
 CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE MTNS AND             
 FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. BERTHOUD PASS STILL                  
 HOWLING AT THIS HOUR WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 75 MPH. BUT AS A RULE MAX            
 WIND SPEEDS AT A NUMBER OF FRONT RANGE REPORTING SITES IN THE 35-45            
 MPH RANGE. BASED ON WIND...VERTICAL VELOCITY AND SFC PRES FIELDS OFF           
 THE RUC AND WRF SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF THESE GUSTY AND ERRATIC           
 CHINOOK WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN               
 SHOW THE CROSS MTN PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENING AND THE MTN WAVE               
 BREAKING DOWN.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WIND              
 SPEEDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SINCE WINDS NOT AS               
 STRONG AS YESTERDAY...WILL ALLOW THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CURRENTLY           
 IN EFFECT FOR THE MTNS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS TO EXPIRE AS OF               
 12Z/5 AM MST. HOWEVER WILL KEEP AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE FCST              
 FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.                                                         
 AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE AS MUCH AS A 15-20 DEG              
 SPREAD FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WARMEST            
 READINGS AGAIN IN WINDIER AREAS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS. NAM/WRF              
 INDICATING SFC TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 40S NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN                  
 JEFFERSON AND BOULDER COUNTIES...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION               
 WE/LL SEE A FEW 50 DEG READINGS IN THESE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                  
 WHEREAS COOL AND RELATIVELY MOISTURE AIR SITTING IN THE SOUTH PLATTE           
 RIVER BASIN NORTHEAST OF DENVER METRO AREA SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON               
 READINGS TO THE 30S. THIS SAME AREA UNDER A DENSE FOG ADVSY AT THE             
 MOMENT UNTIL 14Z/7 AM MST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ALREADY SEEING VSBYS           
 IMPROVING SOME AT A FEW LOCALS SO ADVSY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLIER               
 THAN ADVERTISED.                                                               
 IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...HAVE LEFT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE               
 FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENOUGH W-NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MID-LVL             
 MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                
 ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HERE AGAIN...SHOULD SEE              
 GUSTY W-NWLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING                
 SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT OBSERVED YESTERDAY.                      
 LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH             
 WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  A CONTINUATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW...           
 ALTHOUGH A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY...WILL HELP PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT             
 WARMUP.  THE BIGGEST RESPONSE WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...WHILE             
 EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE            
 NORTHEASTERN COLORADO GLACIER.  HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF WARMING           
 SEEN THE SNOWPACK WILL INDEED BE MELTING AND SHRINKING THROUGH                 
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE FRONT            
 RANGE FOOTHILLS AS 700 MB READINGS RISE TO +6C BY TUESDAY.  FARTHER            
 EAST...MAINLY UPPER 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WITH WEAKER             
 DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND COLDER NIGHTTIME READINGS.                             
 BY LATE TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A COLD               
 FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO.  THIS WOULD BE A VERY                
 SHALLOW FEATURE BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO COOL THINGS OFF                      
 CONSIDERABLY AND BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE EASTERN              
 PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE A BIT             
 MORE TRICKY SINCE AIRMASS IS SO SHALLOW AND COLD AIR MAY EASILY GET            
 FLUSHED OUT IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SURGE IN.  DONT SEE ANY REASON TO             
 CHANGE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT MODERATION AT THIS POINT.  NEXT                
 CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATTER              
 PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT DONT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING             
 SIGNIFICANT.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BAKER/BARJENBRUCH                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                              
 1040 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007                                                     
 .NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...                                     
 MINOR CHANGES THIS AM TO GRIDDED FORECASTS. MAIN ONE WAS TO SKY                
 COVER. WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND BASED ON LATEST             
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC SOUNDINGS...WE HAVE PRODUCED A SUNNY TO              
 MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS OR WINDS OF SIGNIFICANCE.           
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL BE            
 JUST ABOVE THE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.                                             
 FROM PREVIOUS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE...WITH              
 VERY STRONG JET MAX ON THE EAST SIDE...WILL REMAIN THE STORY ACROSS            
 THE NORTHEAST.                                                                 
 LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...WITH THIS COLDER SURGE OF A 8              
 DEGREE C DROP OFF FROM YESTERDAY AT H8 ALONG WITH 1000-500 HPA                 
 THICKNESS BARELY REACHING 500 DM...WOULD EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO           
 STAY BELOW 20...A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS. ONLY SOME STRATO-CU                   
 EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE.                                       
 FOR TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES                      
 ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MIXING HEIGHT DOES LOWER               
 SOMEWHAT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BRISK.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
 NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...FROM PREVIOUS: AFTER ANALYZING OPERATIONAL           
 NAM...GFS...UKMET...ECMWF AND 21Z SREF...DO NOT SEE ANY WARM UP OF             
 CONSEQUENCE ON THE HORIZON. THE SAME DEEP COLD POOL...STACKED LOW              
 PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHEAST. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS              
 (STD DEV -1 TO -3) COLD POOL AT H5 AND H8 DOES NOT CHANGE. SEE                 
 LITTLE REASON FOR A MAJOR WARM UP HERE. SO AFTER INITIAL SURGE OF              
 ARCTIC AIR IN THE NEAR TERM...AIRMASS MODIFIES VERY LITTLE AND                 
 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH              
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN              
 TIME CROSS SECTIONS OF TEMPS.                                                  
 THE DEEP TROUGH AND WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP AREA PREDOMINATELY           
 DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME INDICATION OF SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER TYPE            
 SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT STRONG UPSTREAM JET...PASSES TO OUR                
 SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CLOSE CALL BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY             
 AT THIS TIME.                                                                  
 WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE                 
 REGION TUESDAY...THEN THEY SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BY LATE TUESDAY.            
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                 
 NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS AFTERNOON`S                    
 FORECASTS.                                                                     
 FROM PREVIOUS: COLD THURSDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT PICKS                        
 RIGHT BACK AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. UPPER FLOW FINALLY                   
 FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN            
 THE AIRMASS IS POSSIBLE. MAYBE REACH 32 IN SOME SPOTS.                         
 THEN...ECMWF AND GFS ROTATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA              
 AND YET ANOTHER COLD STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST               
 CANADA ALONG WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.           
 LOOKING BEYOND...COULD BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN BRIEFLY. OVERALL               
 THOUGH...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN              
 DATABASE.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .HYDROLOGY...                                                                  
 CONTINUED SUB FREEZING CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ICE FORMATION ON              
 PARTS OF AREA RIVERS...THIS WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN LOCAL RIVER             
 STAGES UP AND DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE ANY ICE FORMS.                             
 OTHERWISE...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO               
 CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE            
 OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY            
 FLOW.                                                                          
 EXPECT SCT STRATA CU AT AROUND 5 KFT.                                          
 WINDS ARE THE IMPACT OF CONCERN NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GDP`S AT KEWR AND           
 KLGA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TO WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER STEADY INTO THIS           
 AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL IN CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS.                           
 ZNY COORDINATED WITH.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONDITIONS. THUS GALES NOW           
 UP FOR ALL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.                                           
 LOW WATER WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR PROBLEMS FOR THE FERRIES. TIDES ARE              
 RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT BELOW NORMAL.                                               
 FROM PREVIOUS: STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING                
 PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE POLAR VORTEX OVER               
 EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY...WILL PRODUCE             
 GALES ON ALL WATERS. WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON TUE WITH             
 LESSENING WINDS AND SEAS...SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED ON THE           
 OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND. A CLIPPER LOW TAKES A TRACK TO OUR             
 SOUTH AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. WEAK RIDGING TO THE               
 NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WILL RESULT IN A            
 BRIEF RESPITE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY WED MORNING...BEFORE A                   
 STRENGTHENING NW FLOW DEVELOPS WED AFT BEHIND THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE           
 LOW. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY FRI AND THEN BEGIN TO             
 DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.              
 THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE LOW               
 WATER ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND              
 SOUND...NY HARBOR AND THE OCEAN WATERS...WHILE THE WESTERN SOUND               
 HOLDS ON A BIT LONGER TO AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. BENCHMARKS FOR LOW               
 WATER ARE 1.8 FT BELOW MLLW AT THE BATTERY AND KINGS POINT.                    
 LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 CT...NONE.                                                                     
 NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-              
      068.                                                                      
 NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.              
 MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-          
      338-350-353-355.                                                          
      GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.                 
      GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-350-353-355.               
      LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335.                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...TONGUE                                                                
 PUBLIC...PW                                                                    
 AVIATION/MARINE...DW                                                           
</pre> ct                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                              
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                             
 1003 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 A FRIGID WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL              
 DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE                 
 WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH BELOW AVERAGE             
 TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.              
 ALSO...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE COLD            
 AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION              
 THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH LITTLE MODERATION.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 THE LATEST RUC40KM OUTPUT CLEARLY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT H500            
 AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY. THIS HAS               
 ALLOWED THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO VEER TO A 270 OR SO                
 TRAJECTORY WITH THE WRN ADIRONDACKS FINALLY GETTING INTO THE SNOW              
 BAND BETWEEN 6-9 PM. NO REPORTS IN YET...BUT WEBCAMS SHOW SNOW                 
 FALLING IN OLD FORGE IN HERKIMER COUNTY. OUR LAKE EFFECT SNOW                  
 WARNING REMAINS UP. SNOW RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE                 
 QUESTION. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY GET INTO EXTREME NRN            
 PORTIONS OF SRN HERKIMER AND NRN FULTON COUNTIES. WE KEPT ALSO NOTED           
 SOME FLURRIES OUTSIDE AT ALY WITH THE TROF PASSAGE AND A LINKING OF            
 SOME OF THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND MOISTURE. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE              
 KENX AND REGIONAL MOSIAC RADARS. KSCH HAD A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW TOO            
 0130Z-0200Z.  WE TRIED TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER PRIOR TO 05Z WITH THIS           
 UPDATE. WE TAILERED POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES AFTER 05Z FOR            
 THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE BERKSHIRES. WE REMOVED THE POPS SOUTH             
 AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXCEPT OVER THE LOWER CATSKILLS               
 AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                
 NASTY WIND CHILLS WILL BE OCCURRING IN WITH THE W/NW WINDS OF 10-20            
 MPH AND TEMPS 10 BELOW TO TO 5 ABOVE REGIONWIDE. THE WIND CHILL                
 ADVISORY FLAG REMAINS UP.                                                      
 SHORT TERM UPDATE...TAW                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.                 
 MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.                 
 NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-                 
      038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.                                  
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY            
      FOR NYZ038-082.                                                           
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.           
 VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 355 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007/                                             
 SYNOPSIS...A COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT             
 SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR             
 THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH BELOW                 
 AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE            
 AREA. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE           
 COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE                
 REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH LITTLE MODERATION.                         
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE TWO MAJOR                   
 CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LARGE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF EAST END             
 OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS              
 AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL               
 DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF                    
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.                
 ONCE THIS HAPPENS EXPECT AT LEAST 4 TO 8 HOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCH PER              
 HOUR RATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF                   
 ROUTE 8 IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF               
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO NOON MONDAY WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF                
 ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND 8 TO 16                  
 INCHES EXPECTED IN HAMILTON COUNTY MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 8.                    
 INSTABILITY REMAINS EXTREME FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY               
 AND INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY 10 KFT OR HIGHER COUPLED WITH LOW              
 LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN A STRONG AND             
 FAIRLY LONG FETCH. FLOW FROM 270-280 DEGREES WILL BECOME 290-300               
 DEGREES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DRIVE THE LAKE BAND DOWN                
 INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE             
 PERIOD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RETURN NORTH INTO              
 THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WHILE AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ARE                
 NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...6 TO               
 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY                  
 NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND ACROSS               
 NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD GENERALLY BE              
 IN THE 20 TO 30:1 RANGE...BUT AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40:1. AS FOR               
 WIND CHILLS WILL LEAVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ON PLACE FOR NOW...BUT              
 WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE EVEN LOWER AS WEST WINDS                 
 PERSIST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES                 
 THAN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO                     
 SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS COVERED IN THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO                 
 MID SHIFT FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. EXPECT THAT WIND CHILL WILL BE             
 HANDLED ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS THROUGH THE WEEK.                                
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER               
 OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED              
 BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                  
 BEFORE THE BAND MAY FINALLY WEAKEN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN                
 BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH NO MAJOR EAST               
 COAST STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...LAKE EFFECT AND WIND                  
 CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM MAINLY DURING NIGHT-TIME AND              
 MORNING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE               
 WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY.                                
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH THE PERIOD               
 WITH MAINLY P6SM SKC OR SCT035-045 CLOUDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS              
 FROM LAKE ERIE OR LAKE ONTARIO WILL NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES...WITH            
 THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE             
 KGFL TAF SITE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.               
 HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE UPCOMING                  
 WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL PRETTY MUCH BE LIMITED TO LAKE EFFECT                 
 SNOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE                     
 CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS. THE SNOW                 
 WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO              
 THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOWN AWAY               
 BY THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. FREEZE-UP JAMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT                  
 A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE SEASON WHEN                  
 MELTING AND RAIN CAUSES FLOWS TO INCREASE.  A RELEASE OF AROUND                
 7400 CFS CONTINUES OUT OF GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE TO LOWER THE                    
 LAKE LEVEL.                                                                    
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ct                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                              
 950 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...                                                      
 REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE            
 FCST AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP              
 QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN. 00Z RAOB DATA AND              
 LATEST MODEL DATA SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT OF 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS NEW             
 YORK STATE...RANGING FROM -15C AT OKX...TO -20C AT ALB AND -25C AT             
 BUF. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SFC WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS              
 UPSTATE AND WEST...TEENS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND GENERALLY UPPER              
 TEENS TO LOWER 20S AROUND NYC. LATEST RUC AND NAM DATA STILL SHOW              
 THE COLDER AIR MOVING SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY 12Z MON MORNING...             
 WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C. FOR THE FCST...MADE SOME            
 ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SLOWER ENTRY OF            
 THE COLDER AIR...BUT ONLY RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.               
 THIS WILL NOT HELP MUCH AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY                   
 OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BEFORE             
 MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STILL REACH NEAR -15F IN ORANGE...             
 PUTNAM AND WRN PASSAIC AND WIND CHILL ADV WILL CONTINUE THERE.                 
 OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY           
 CLEAR DURING THE EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH              
 STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE EVIDENT ON SAT PIX AND SFC            
 OBS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AND EXPECT THESE TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA             
 LATER ON TONIGHT.                                                              
 UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES           
 TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCES.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 NAM AND GFS WERE OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT...WITH               
 THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE TIMING ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING               
 TO OUR SOUTH ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SINCE THERE WAS                  
 LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL                   
 SHORTWAVES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AROUND A CLOSED POLAR LOW AT 60+               
 HOURS...USED A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE                
 SHORT RANGE...WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE IN THE LOWER                 
 LEVELS TOOK 3-4 DEGREES OFF A BLEND OF THE COLDEST TWO AVAILABLE               
 GUIDANCE (NOTING BIAS OF GUIDANCE MENTIONED ABOVE).                            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM                    
 SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO DEPTH OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH                 
 OVER THE EASTERN US...WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE.                
 WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH DUE TO STRONG                  
 PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND 30 TO 40 KT OF UPPER LEVEL               
 BOUNDARY LEVEL FLOW...UNTIL FINALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TUESDAY AS             
 THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE               
 SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES NW TOWARDS FAR NE                
 CANADA (WINDS ALSO DIMINISH IN THE UPPER BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL                
 AROUND THEN).                                                                  
 WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO ABOVE ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS                   
 TOMORROW (WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS)...THEN FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE               
 SINGLE DIGITS TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL               
 BE A LITTLE SLOWER TOMORROW NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...SO AM NOT                     
 ANTICIPATING NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TOMORROW NIGHT...EVEN               
 THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME. WIND CHILLS WILL               
 GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND               
 20 TO THE MID 20S...AND THEN FALL TO AROUND 0 BY WEDNESDAY                     
 MORNING...WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS              
 WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL           
 BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON TUESDAY...DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.              
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                 
 FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 0Z ECMWF/0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE                   
 EXTENDED...THIS WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. GFS               
 IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO BRING ZONAL FLOW TO THE                  
 REGION NEXT WEEK (ANOTHER MODEL BIAS...THE TENDENCY TO HAVE ARCTIC             
 AIR DEPART/BREAK UP THE SUPPORTING STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPING             
 THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE TOO QUICKLY). RESULT IS A DRY AND COLD                 
 EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT REACH FREEZING FOR THE                 
 ENTIRE WEEK...BUT FOR NOW DO SHOW PARTS OF NYC REACHING 32 FRIDAY              
 AND SUNDAY (FOR WHAT ITS WORTH).                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL              
 REMAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AS            
 COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. A STRONG PRESSURE                
 GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING IN           
 NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN            
 PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AT THE NYC              
 TERMINALS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30              
 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER             
 DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES.                               
 SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND               
 COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL AFFECT WRN SECTIONS INCLUDING NYC LATE TONIGHT           
 AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR              
 MOVES INTO THE REGION. NOTHING MORE THAN FEW DIURNAL CU EXPECTED               
 DURING THE DAYTIME ON MON.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS FOR LI SOUND OVERNIGHT                
 REFLECTING THE MORE NW RATHER THAN W WIND DIRECTION. NO OTHER                  
 SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE MARINE FCST. WINDS REMAIN BELOW             
 GALE LEVELS AS OF 02Z...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN               
 LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING SO NO CHANGES TO THE WARNING                     
 CONFIGURATION. WATER LEVELS DID DROP TO AROUND 2 FT BELOW MLLW WITH            
 THE LATE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE CYCLE...SO LOW WATER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.          
 A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST            
 PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK WAVE OF            
 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF            
 STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE              
 COUNTRY. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING ABOUT NORTHERN                 
 NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL KEEP A                
 TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.             
 ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHED BLO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN AND                 
 EASTERN SOUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THEY WILL           
 PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY...SO WILL LEAVE GALES POSTED AS IS. SCA ON             
 THE W SOUND AND NY HARBOR LOOK GOOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH            
 BLO GALE FORCE BY LATE MON NIGHT...BUT SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR           
 THE E SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TUE (W SOUND AND NY HARBOR                
 SHOULD FALL JUST BLO SCA LEVELS BY TUE AFTERNOON). SEAS ON THE OCEAN           
 WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE.                                                   
 LOW WATER PROBLEMS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE DURING LOW TIDE THROUGH AT             
 LEAST MONDAY/S TIDE CYCLES WITH THE CONTINUING OFFSHORE FLOW.                  
 LATEST GFS BASED FCST GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE                              
 DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2.5 FT BELOW MLLW FOR THE LOW TIDE CYCLES THROUGH           
 MON. SOME DEPARTURES COULD REACH UP TO 3 FT BELOW MLLW IN WRN LI               
 SOUND. MON NIGHT/S LOW TIDES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN ISSUE ON THE W              
 SOUND.                                                                         
 FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE                
 COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR TEMPS...STRONG WINDS...AND HIGH SEAS.             
 WATER TEMPS ARE STILL MARGINAL IN THE MID 40S ON THE OCEAN                     
 ZONES...BUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S ON ERN LI SOUND. WILL              
 CARRY MENTION OF FRZG SPRAY IN THE CWF TEXT FOR THESE AREAS.                   
 MARINE WX STATEMENT CONTINUED HIGHLIGHTING THE VARIETY OF WX                   
 CONCERNS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                    
 BRISK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE BEFORE FINALLY                 
 DIMINISHING WED. FREEZING SPRAY AND LOW WATER PROBLEMS WILL ABATE BY           
 THAT TIME.                                                                     
 A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
 BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA            
 LEVELS AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN AREA OF             
 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .HYDROLOGY...                                                                  
 CONTINUED SUB FREEZING CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ICE FORMATION ON              
 PARTS OF AREA RIVERS...THIS WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN LOCAL RIVER             
 STAGES UP AND DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE ANY ICE FORMS.                             
 OTHERWISE...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO               
 CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 CT...NONE.                                                                     
 NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067-             
      068.                                                                      
 NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002.             
 MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.             
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.              
      LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-350-353-355.          
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR                    
      ANZ330-350-353-355.                                                       
      GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-350-353-355.               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 EVENING UPDATE...JACOBSON                                                      
</pre> ct                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                       
 1225 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE.                               
 AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WERE EVIDENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN               
 INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE           
 ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A FEW CU OVERNIGHT AT KLAF WHILE OTHER SITES           
 SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME           
 INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS              
 SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NW. WILL MENTION BROKEN CU AT KLAF AND             
 KIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME               
 DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY.           
 AFTER SUNSET TAFS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING.                   
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE             
 WILL BE MORE RIDGING OCCURRING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...SO             
 WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY. SOME               
 DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DROP            
 NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THOSE TIMES. MEANWHILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL            
 BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.                            
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 FORECAST ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING AT ABOUT THE RATE                  
 EXPECTED. 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT WARM. TAKING A COUPLE             
 DEGREES OFF OF 00Z NAM TEMPS YIELDS VALUES NEAR CURRENT FORECAST               
 MINS. 00Z RUC40 IS SIMILAR IN ITS ERROR...EXCEPT RUC40 IS RUNNING              
 TOO COLD. THUS DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST.                          
 WIND CHILLS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN ADVRY RANGE FOR CURRENT AREA...SO           
 NO CHANGES MADE THERE.                                                         
 DID LOWER SKY COVER ACROSS NRN 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA AS THIS AREA IS            
 CURRENTLY CLEAR. SRN FA WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE FROM SYSTEM             
 AFFECTING PORTIONS OF KY.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS.                                   
 LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS 1003MB SFC LOW ACROSS LK HURON WITH AN ARCTIC             
 COLD FRONT EXITING IN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE             
 BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. SFC TEMPS UPSTREAM RANGE FORM NEAR 20 AT STL TO           
 THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR MOLINE IL.                                   
 SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY MOCLEAR SKIES TO THE NW WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH            
 CLDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH MID CLD              
 ACROSS KS HOWEVER GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH           
 OF THE CWA.                                                                    
 THERE WERE SOME SIG INITIALIZATION ISSUES NOTED WITH THE 12Z                   
 RUN...MAINLY THAT THE GFS IS TOO MOIST IN THE 850-600MB LAYER                  
 SHOWING NEAR 90-100% RH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE                
 COUNTRY. A PEAK AT SAT CONFIRMS THAT THERE IS NO CLD ASSOCIATED WITH           
 THIS AREA.                                                                     
 I WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE MAV/GFS           
 APPEARS TOO WARM TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE, I WILL STAY CLOSE THE GOING              
 FCST WITH TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE COLD ENSEMBLE TEMP GUIDANCE.           
 TONIGHT...MOCLEAR SKIES AND SFC WINDS OF AROUND 10KTS SHOULD PERSIST           
 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMP FCSTS BASED OFF OF UPSTREAM LOWS IN            
 A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AND NAM 2M TEMPS. IN A NUTSHELL, LOOK FOR LOWS           
 NEAR THE CURRENT FCST IN THE -5 TO 5F RANGE.                                   
 SUN-SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA.            
 SOME CU POSSIBLE HOWEVER GIVEN NATURE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS I WILL KEEP            
 SKIES PTCLDY WITH LOW CHC POPS INTO SUN NIGHT. I WILL KEEP THE GOING           
 HIGHS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE NAM 2M TEMPS. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES             
 CONTINUE TO FALL SUN NIGHT. AIR TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES            
 COLDER. SFC WINDS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE MOST OF THE            
 NIGHT. EXPECT COLDEST WIND CHILLS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT WITH VALUES IN            
 THE -15F TO -25F RANGE. FOR NOW, I WILL EXTEND THE WIND CHILL                  
 ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP THE OPTION OPEN TO UPGRADE TO A               
 WARNING IF NEED BE.                                                            
 MON AND BEYOND...NO MAJOR CHANGES SEEN WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.              
 EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS. GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF               
 WAVES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. GIVEN THE POOR GFS PERFORMANCE OF LATE AND           
 LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS I WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT            
 FOR TUES.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON              
 EST MON FROM INTERSTATE 70 NORTH.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...JH                                                                  
 UPDATE...CS                                                                    
 DISCUSSION...CO                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                             
 940 PM CST MON FEB 5 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO REMOVE FOG AND DRIZZLE. SFC OBS            
 SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT DRYER             
 AIR INTO NORTHEAST KS. LATEST RUC AND NAM FORECASTS SHOW THIS TO               
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
 FROM THE MID LEVEL AC SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. AS FOR           
 THE DRIZZLE...ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                
 CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL DRY              
 AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE            
 DEFICITS REMAIN ABOVE 50MB WITHIN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE              
 FORECAST AREA. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP AS FORECAST             
 SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A VERY NARROW LAYER SATURATING...BUT DO NOT               
 EXPECT THIS TO BE THICK ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FALL FROM.              
 OTHERWISE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK            
 TO BE PRETTY DIVERSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD DRY                  
 AIRMASS OVER HIAWATHA AND A RETURN FLOW AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL KS.               
 HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRADIENT TO REFLECT THIS AND SHOW MORE OF A NORMAL           
 DIURNAL CURVE SINCE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF QUIET AS FAST ACROSS             
 CENTRAL KS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WITH LESS CLOUDS ANTICIPATED                 
 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS TO START OUT THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS A            
 LITTLE WARMER. DID NOT GET CARRIED AWAY THOUGH AND WILL LET THE MID            
 SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.                                                      
 MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WHETHER STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. AM LEANING A            
 LITTLE MORE TOWARDS AN OPTIMISTIC FCST WITH EACH RUN OF THE NAM                
 BACKING OFF ON THE LOW LEVEL RH. IF STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT IT           
 TO REMAIN ABOVE 1KFT. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE NSW FOR THE TAFS THROUGH            
 00Z.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 WOLTERS                                                                        
 .PREV DISCUSSION /338 PM CST MON FEB 5/...                                     
 SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FOG/STRATUS/FREEZING DRIZZLE                
 POTENTIAL TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH                     
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MID                
 AMERICA ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH             
 IS ALLOWING FOR SOME WAA TO DEVELOP IN RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL            
 PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWING           
 THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN CWA INTO              
 NEBRASKA. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS AREA MAY BE                 
 ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS                  
 EVENING AS SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS...BUT DRYING IN THE            
 MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT FAVORS POSSIBLE                
 FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE WAA IN THE LOW                
 LEVELS INCREASES OVERNIGHT...STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS                
 MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY AREA FOR           
 POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FORMATION...ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF THE STRATUS DECK...IF           
 IT FORMS...AND THE DEGREE OF LIFT WITHIN IT IS IN QUESTION. WITH THE           
 WARM ADVECTION...ALSO EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT           
 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL ACROSS MANY           
 AREAS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER THIS EVENING...DRY           
 DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WILL AID TEMPS TO FALL OFF FASTER THAN            
 THE NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE KEPT A NON DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OVERNIGHT             
 WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS MANY AREAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS               
 LATE EVENING LOWS FROM THE MID TEENS FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 20S           
 SOUTHWEST AREAS.                                                               
 ON TUESDAY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT            
 MORE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN              
 CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IF THE STRATUS/FOG DOES NOT FORM           
 LATER TONIGHT...WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY WOULD              
 FAVOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS IN THE 50S SOUTHWEST CWA AND 40S FAR                   
 NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION ON THE FORECAST                   
 SOUNDINGS WILL NEED TO BE ERODED AND MIXING WILL NOT BE OVERLY                 
 STRONG. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE             
 CWA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH.               
 WEDNESDAY SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WITH              
 NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT OR MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.               
 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES HOLDS ITS GROUND AS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE                
 OFF THE WEST COAST DRAWS MOISTURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY.              
 HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CLOUD COVER BUT NO PRECIP THINKING MOST                    
 MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.                                
 COLD HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCED ONCE AGAIN AS SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS             
 THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS SURFACE HIGH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND             
 SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM THROUGH THE RIDGE OUT             
 WEST...KEPT INHERITED FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.                                      
 BOTH EC AND GFS SHOWING SOME KIND OF BREAK DOWN IN THE WESTERN                 
 RIDGE / EASTERN TROF PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN. DEGREE TO WHICH                  
 SOUTHWEST FLOW AND OVERRUNNING CAN RETURN WILL DETERMINE PRECIP                
 POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN/MON TIME PERIOD. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO HPC                  
 GUIDANCE AND ADDED POPS/WX FOR MONDAY. COULD NEED SOME FOR SUNDAY              
 AS MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE FRONT. 67                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 0955 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 ...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUE...                                              
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE WIND CHILL                  
 POTENTIAL AND LES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                       
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN             
 CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE           
 ARE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS EXITING           
 THE FORECAST AREA AND IS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE ANOTHER IS               
 OVER THE WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. YET A THIRD                 
 SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1036MB           
 RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE              
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS RIDGE IS DIRECTING COLD CANADIAN AIR            
 SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. 850MB             
 TEMPERATURES SHOWS A COLD POOL OF -28C TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN               
 ONTARIO EXTENDING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER EASTERN LAKE                
 SUPERIOR THE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND -24C GIVING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T            
 OF AROUND 27C. KMQT-88D SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS                  
 EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 3.9U IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS              
 SHOWING LES SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AS WELL. LOCAL               
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-ARW VERIFIES THE BEST WITH REFERENCE TO ITS                
 DEPICTION OF THE LES.                                                          
 THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY. THE                    
 SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST            
 AREA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE                  
 FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF -28C 850MB                   
 TEMPERATURE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH           
 AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH OF -26C EXTENDING INTO WESTERN U.P. THE           
 LOCAL WRF-ARW AND GFS/NAM SHOWING THE LES BANDS WILL CONTINUE OVER             
 THE EASTERN U.P. MAINLY FROM MUNISING EAST TO KANJ. OTHER BANDS WILL           
 CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. FROM THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS                    
 NORTHEAST THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE MERCURY SHOULD RISE TO           
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE             
 FORECAST GRADIENTS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE            
 WEST OVER THE U.P. AND WILL WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THIS                 
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAKE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AND FROM THE           
 WEST NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS LIKE            
 THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF THE EAST PART OF            
 THE CWA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP CONVERGENCE GOING THROUGH THE TODAY               
 ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. PLAN TO KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR              
 WESTERN COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR GOGEBIC...AND FOR THE AREAS EAST OF                
 MUNISING. SINCE LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS            
 AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL WARNING EXPIRE AT NOON.                  
 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE              
 SURFACE RIDGE WILL AGAIN CHANGE LITTLE. SINCE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD             
 PREVAIL OVER THE THE INTERIOR OF THE U.P. TONIGHT WIND CHILL                   
 ADVISORY IN SPITE OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH            
 WILL REMAIN OVER THE U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING A DELTA-T OF               
 OVER AROUND 25C GOING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE INTERIOR OF THE               
 U.P. SHOULD BE -15F TO -20F. SO IT APPEARS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY              
 SNOW. LITTLE HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KEWEENAW                  
 PENINSULA AND EASTERN U.P. SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING IN THOSE                
 PLACES.                                                                        
 LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT             
 AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE              
 OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK A LITTLE MORE             
 WEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF                 
 THE U.P. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER. WINDS WILL REACH           
 TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKE              
 SHORE EAST OF MUNISING. THUS LES WILL CONTINUE OVER THOSE AREA. WIND           
 CHILLS WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.                      
 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA RAPIDLY                 
 WEDNESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH WEAKER ONE ON THURSDAY.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUE MIZ006-007-085.                        
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUE MIZ001>003.                            
 WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ004-005-009>013-084.                 
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 GALE WARNING EAST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DLG                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 0955 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 ...ARCTIC COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS TO CONTINUE INTO               
 TOMORROW...                                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 OVERALL FCST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  WV IMAGERY SHOWING S/WV ROTATING           
 AROUND QUEBEC POLAR VORTEX HELPING TO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT                
 ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF AREA. GRAND MARAIS RECENTLY HAD A WIND GUST             
 TO 44. 1040 SFC HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA                    
 PROVIDING THE VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE LAKE              
 EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN COUNTIES AND DO NOT EXPECT             
 MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SOME LIGHTER SNOW               
 CONTINUING INTO ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES BUT VIS IMAGERY BEFORE             
 IT GOT DARK DID NOT SHOW ANY INTENSE ORGANIZED BANDS. BIGGEST STORY            
 REST OF TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY WILL BE THE DANGEROUS COLD. CURRENT              
 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WEST                
 WHERE WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN RUNNING INTO THE -30 TO -40 RANGE. TEMPS           
 A FEW DEGREES WARMER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...IN THE EAST BUT WIND              
 CHILLS STILL IN THE -20 RANGE. FCST LOWS OF AROUND -20 WEST AND                
 AROUND -10 EAST APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY                    
 ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL LIKELY APPROACH -45 IN PARTS            
 OF THE WEST BY MORNING.                                                        
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 439 PM)...                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RDGG OVER            
 THE W COAST OF NOAM WITH A BROAD TROF OVER MUCH OF NOAM. POLAR                 
 VORTEX IN BASE OF TROF IS OVER NW QUEBEC WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING             
 AROUND THE BACKSIDE INTO NRN AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER                    
 SHORTWAVE IS NOTED BACK OVER THE NW TERRITORIES AND WILL LIKELY                
 DESCEND OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT PER MODEL FCST. AT THE              
 SFC...A LAKE-INDUCED TROF STILL EXISTS OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN              
 UPR MI. LOW-LVL CONV NEAR THE TROF WAS AIDED BY LAND BREEZES IN THE            
 VERY COLD AIRMASS. THIS CONVERGENCE WAS HELPING TO FOCUS BEST                  
 WIND-PARALLEL LES BANDS OVER ALGER-LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE NW           
 FETCH IS GREATEST ACROSS EXPANSE OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVERGENCE             
 ALSO HELPING TO FOCUS SOME BETTER BANDS OVER ONTONAGON AND NRN                 
 GOGEBIC COUNTY BUT SHORT FETCH AND POOR SNOW GROWTH DUE TO VERY COLD           
 AIRMASS (-30C OR LOWER AT 850 MB) LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS. VISIBLE              
 SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SNOW                 
 SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS. WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED IN              
 THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE ONLY REACHED 5 TO 10            
 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                               
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT COLDER READINGS TONIGHT THAN GUIDANCE IS           
 INDICATING GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS HAVE BEEN TODAY. THUS...HAVE                   
 ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN 5 DEGREES OR COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AT MANY              
 LOCATIONS WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF -20F TEMPS OR LOWER AND               
 EVEN -10 TO -15F FOR THE WESTERN SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS COMBINED               
 WITH W-NW WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL AGAIN PLUMMET WIND CHILLS TONIGHT             
 INTO 30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO RANGE SO KEPT WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINES            
 GOING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND A BIT               
 MORE ON MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO -25C. WITH DIURNAL MIXING           
 HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...ESPECIALLY FOR           
 DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE MI. WIND CHILLS WILL MODERATE AS WELL             
 BY AFTERNOON INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE.                               
 LAND BREEZES AGAIN WILL AID LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR M-38 IN THE               
 WEST AND OVER ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES IN THE NE              
 CWA. FLOW BACKING MORE WRLY BY MON AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT BEST LES               
 BANDS MORE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE ERN SHORELINE BY LATE               
 MON. POOR SNOW GROWTH AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL LIMIT               
 ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY FOR WRN COUNTIES WITH SHORTER NW FETCH ACROSS              
 THE LAKE. EXPECT...LES TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY OF 2            
 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OVER WRN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND 5 TO LOCALLY 10              
 INCHES OVER ERN ALGER-NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES. THUS                  
 CONSIDERING COLD WIND CHILLS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE KEPT                 
 WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING OVER ONTONAGON-HOUGHTON-KEWEENAW                   
 COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND OVER ERN COUNTIES THROUGH                  
 MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ACT TO               
 TIGHTEN NW GRAD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING             
 SO HAVE ALSO KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH                
 EXPECTED GALES TO 35 KT.                                                       
 .LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                     
 MON NIGHT...GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW A SHRTWV/509 DAM LOW OVER NORTHERN              
 MANITOBA DROPPING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NW            
 FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY                 
 MOISTURE WITH IT...SO ALL IT DOES IS HELP BRING IN A SLIGHTLY COLDER           
 AIRMASS. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO AROUND -26C OVER LAKE              
 SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. THIS COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP DECENT            
 LAND BREEZES...THUS THE NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF ARE              
 ALL IN AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE BAND IN THE               
 VICINITY OF TWIN LAKES AND FROM THE PICTURED ROCKS EASTWARD TO                 
 WHITEFISH POINT. A POINT FORECAST SOUNDING FROM NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY           
 SHOWS SOME SNOW GROWTH LAYER...THOUGH IT IS NOT TOO DEEP GIVEN THE             
 COLD AIRMASS COMING IN. NONETHELESS...2 TO 4 INCHES SHOULD STILL BE            
 POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND. AWAY FROM THE LES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
 AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO              
 THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT              
 WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET GIVEN THAT THE WIND SPEEDS             
 ARE AT OR BELOW 10 MPH...THEREFORE WILL NOT EXTEND THE WIND CHILL              
 WARNING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.                                               
 TUE...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER FAR NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND IS           
 PROGGED TO ROTATE BACK TO THE W...REACHING EASTERN HUDSON BAY BY               
 00Z. THIS MOTION WILL ALLOW THE LOW CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
 TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE E. THE NAM SUGGESTS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE               
 COMING INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...THE UKMET/GFS AND               
 ECMWF KEEP THIS RIDGE OFF TO THE W. PREFER THE MAJORITY                        
 SOLUTION...WHICH FOLLOWS CONTINUITY. GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WARMING             
 TO -22C BY 00Z...WHICH SHOULD HELP OUT THE SNOW GROWTH FOR LES. IN             
 ADDITION...THE WIND FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE SAME           
 AREA AS TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS AS MON                    
 NIGHT...BUT RAISED THEM UP JUST A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY               
 BETTER SNOW GROWTH. INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 6000 FT SHOULD ALSO HELP.           
 AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED ACROSS NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY AND                 
 EASTERN ALGER COUNTY AS THE 24 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNT BETWEEN MON                
 NIGHT AND TUE MAY REACH THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 10 INCHES. PARTLY TO           
 MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES...WITH                     
 TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MON DUE TO SIMILAR 850MB READINGS.              
 TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER LOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY IS                
 PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT...THEN HEAD E ON WED. THIS IS              
 DUE TO A FEW SHRTWVS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING                
 SOUTH...AND THE LAST STRONGER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO UPPER            
 MICHIGAN LATE WED. AS THESE SHRTWVS MOVE S...BOTH COLD AIR ADVECTION           
 AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE. BY WED...850MB TEMPS ARE                 
 PROGGED TO FALL BACK TO -23 TO -25C...HOWEVER THE 800-700MB LAYER IS           
 NOW MORE MOIST. THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT BANDS...PERHAPS WITH A                   
 STRONGER CONVERGENT BAND TUE NIGHT DUE TO LAND BREEZES AND LAKE                
 INDUCED TROUGHING...MAY INTENSIFY SOME ON WED (LIKELY OVER THE SAME            
 AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING LES MON NIGHT AND TUE). ALTHOUGH COLD AIR             
 ADVECTION OCCURS...SOUNDINGS OVER NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY STILL HAVE              
 DECENT SNOW GROWTH. THEREFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCENARIO EXISTS FOR            
 EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY TO END UP WITH SNOWFALL                 
 AMOUNTS APPROACHING THE 24 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA. IN ADDITION TO THE           
 LES...ALL MODELS SHOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATE TUE                
 NIGHT DUE TO A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDING S ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES            
 AND A 997MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUEBEC UPPER LOW. HAVE PUT THE             
 POSSIBILITY OF GALES IN FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN THAT 950MB             
 WINDS ARE PROGGED AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. AWAY FROM THE LES...AGAIN NOT             
 MUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE            
 AS LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN THANKS TO A WARMER AIRMASS COMPARED TO THE            
 PAST FEW DAYS...NONTHELESS...WESTERN INTERIOR READINGS SHOULD DROP             
 TO AROUND 10 BELOW. WITH 850MB TEMPS ON WED SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON           
 TUE...ONLY HAVE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME             
 LOWS.                                                                          
 WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN...OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONE MORE           
 SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME AREA BEFORE            
 THE FLOW BEGINS DEAMPLIFYING FROM ITS CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE.                  
 ON WED NIGHT...UPPER MI LOOKS NOW TO BE IN A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AHEAD             
 OF A STRONG SHRTWV DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY INTO                
 MANITOBA. THE SUGGESTION OF WEAK RIDGING WAS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF RUNS           
 YESTERDAY AND NOW THAT THE GFS SHOWS IT...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE             
 LIKELY. THUS...850MB TEMPS ARE ALLOWED TO WARM UP TO -16C BY 12Z               
 THU. NONETHELESS...THIS IS STILL PLENTY COLD TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT               
 GOING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS.                  
 BETWEEN THU AND THU NIGHT...THE STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MANITOBA             
 WIL LBE DROPPING S ACROSS UPPER MI...WHICH ALLOWS 850MB TEMPS TO               
 FALL TO -22C BY 12Z FRI AND THEN -24 TO -26C BY 00Z SAT. GIVEN A               
 LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY           
 OF SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH IT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES TURN               
 MORE TO THE NW BY FRI...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE LES TO PENETRATE                
 FARTHER INLAND. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS BEYOND FRI ON HOW QUICK                
 CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP...PARTICULARLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL ISSUES.              
 THE 06Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TAKING THE STRONG SHRTWV             
 TROUGH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY SHRTWV               
 MOVING S THROUGH HUDSON BAY. WOULD PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION TO EJECT           
 THE COLD AIR AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF SINCE TYPICALLY DURING                  
 AMPLIFIED PATTERNS...THE COLDER AIR IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT. IN                  
 FACT...THE 12Z GFS NOW SHOWS THIS SLOWER IDEA. THEREFORE...LAKE                
 EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SAT WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO              
 -17 TO -22C BY 00Z SUN. EXPECT A WARMING TREND THEN TO DEVELOP FOR             
 SUN THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING WESTERLY AND RETURN FLOW            
 DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSING THE CWA.               
 850MB TEMPS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 168 HR POSITION OF THE 00Z ECMWF             
 WOULD SUGGEST READINGS CLIMBING TO -10C BY 00Z MON. THEREFORE WILL             
 STILL MAINTAIN SOME LES CHANCES FOR WESTERLY FLOW...BUT GIVEN THAT             
 LAKE SUPERIOR HAS COOLED QUITE A BIT BY THEN...THE -10C MAY END UP             
 BEING JUST BARELY COLD ENOUGH FOR LES. PLUS...WITH RETURN FLOW...A             
 LOT OF THE LES MAY BE OUT OF THE CWA.                                          
 NOTE...THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN              
 WITH THE EXIT OF THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE LES CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN           
 CWA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TOMORROW.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MON MIZ006-007-085.                        
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ001>003.                           
 WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ004-005-009>013-084.                 
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 GALE WARNING EAST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 VOSS (SHORT TERM)                                                              
 AJ (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1152 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES AND WINTER STORM               
 WARNINGS AS WIND CHILLS VALUES AND SNOW AMTS CONSISTENT WITH PREV              
 FCST.                                                                          
 ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER WRN 1/3             
 OF CWFA AS LAKE SUPERIOR NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF A MODERATING EFFECT             
 ON EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. LATEST TEMPS ARE               
 STILL -12F AT HOUGHTON...-8F AT COPPER HARBOR...-7F AT ONTONAGON AND           
 -13F AT IRONWOOD. VERY COLD UPSTREAM SNDG AT KINL MIXED TO 850 MB              
 YIELDED MAX TEMP OF -12F WHILE KGRB SNDG MIXED TO 850 MB RESULTED IN           
 TEMP AROUND 0F. SO SIDING WITH COLDER KINL SNDG I LOWERED TEMPS OVER           
 THE WEST A FEW MORE DEGREES. TEMPS AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI LOOKED            
 REASONABLE BASED MORE ON KGRB SNDG.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 ...ARCTIC COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH MON...                 
 LOWEST HEIGHTS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN NORTH AMERICA IS NEAR            
 UPR MI THIS MORNING AS POLAR VORTEX DROPS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.                
 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO UPR GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD JAMES BAY             
 WILL GIVE THE VORTEX A NUDGE INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY. H85 TEMPS                
 WITHIN THE TROUGH OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES ARE AS LOW AS -37C AT              
 CWPL AND -35C AT KINL. ONLY EXTREME GULF COAST AND WEST CONUS ESCAPE           
 THE SUBZERO H85 TEMPS AS ARCTIC PLUNGE GRIPS MAJORITY OF NATION.               
 MUCH WARMER LAKE WATERS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT MESOSCALE TROUGHING               
 WITH AXIS FM ANJ TO DLH. SPOTTER/LAW ENFORCEMENT/RADAR LOOP                    
 INDICATE BAND OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW ALONG TROUGH                 
 AXIS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE PURE LES REGIME WITH               
 SNOWFALL RATES NOT AS HIGH AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WITHIN THE                      
 CONVERGENCE BAND. GUSTY WINDS YDY AFTN/LAST EVENING RESULTED IN                
 BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THAT              
 HAS SUBSIDED.                                                                  
 TODAY...GOING WITH STATUS QUO TODAY WITH DOMINANT CONVERGENCE BAND             
 PRODUCING THE MOST SNOWFALL AND INCREASING WINDS LEADING TO MORE               
 BLSN/POOR VISIBILITIES NW AND NE CWA. SHORTWAVE ENTERING NW MN MOVES           
 MOSTLY S OF CWA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE AND                
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CURRENT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5KFT W AND              
 8KFT EAST. OUTSIDE THE CONVERGENCE BAND...EXPECT A FEW INCHES AT               
 BEST. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAND DESPITE POOR               
 SNOW GROWTH                                                                    
 MICROPHYSICS. DESPITE DEEP MIXING...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TOWARD ZERO            
 SIMILAR TO ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND GOING FCST. PRES GRADIENT                  
 TIGHTENS BY AFTN AS SFC HIGH OVR CNTRL CANADA MOVES SE AND LOW PRES            
 REMAINS PERSISTENT OVR QUEBEC. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN SHOULD           
 PRODUCE MORE BLSN OVR NW AND NE CWA.                                           
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY WILL DROP               
 TOWARD EAST LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF UPWARD MOTION WITH              
 SHORTWAVE STAYS TO THE EAST OF CWA...BUT INCREASING H85-H5 MOISTURE            
 AND H9-H85 TEMPS WARMING FROM BLO -30C TO -20C TO -25C SHOULD                  
 INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES OVR NE CWA. LOWER LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE             
 NW WOULD ALSO BRING MORE SNOW TO M-28 CORRIDOR EAST OF MUNISING TO             
 NEWBERRY. LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE WILL BE KEY             
 TO HOW MUCH SNOW. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (NAM/GFS/LOCAL                          
 WRF-ARW/CANADIAN GEM) ALL SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NW             
 IN LOWER LEVELS AND WILL FOCUS CONVERGENCE GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.           
 RUC 13...WHICH HAS DONE QUITE WELL WITH PROJECTED WINDS                        
 LATELY...SHOWS RECENT PATTERN OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...GRAND MARAIS            
 TO TWO HEART...WOULD SEE MOST SNOW. ALTHOUGH AM HESITENT TO GO                 
 AGAINST THE MODEL DOING SO WELL LATELY...THINK STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE           
 WILL OVERWHELM MESOSCALE WIND EFFECTS AND A MORE NW WIND FLOW WILL             
 RESULT. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BTWN           
 20 TO 30 KT PROGGED. SO...WHEREEVER THE CONVERGENCE SETS                       
 UP...WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES LIKELY WILL                 
 OCCUR. FARTHER WEST...CONVERGENCE IS ALSO PROJECTED IN FAVORED AREA            
 BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. AREA IS FARTHER WEST FM DEEPER MOISTURE            
 THOUGH AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE A BIT LOWER...SO ALTHOUGH SNOW                
 SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. STRONG             
 WINDS AND BLSN WILL LIKELY BE LARGER HAZARD.                                   
 TEMPS/WIND CHILLS...UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL OFF             
 AS WINDS ARE GUSTY/STRONG RIGHT AT THE START OF THE EVENING. WINDS             
 LOOK LIKE THEY STAY STEADY ALL NIGHT. SO...ETA MOS SHOWING NEARLY              
 STEADY TEMPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY MINIMAL DROP FARTHER               
 INLAND MAY BE ON TRACK. SHOWED THIS IDEA IN GRIDS SOME. STILL...EVEN           
 WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY...WINDS GUSTING TO 20           
 MPH AT TIMES RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BLO 35 BELOW AND WARNING SHOULD             
 BE MET IN MOST AREAS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ON INTO MON MORNING AND            
 END RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY.                                                       
 OVERALL...GOING HEADLINES LOOKED FINE AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.                
 LIKELY WILL NEED MORE HEADLINES ON INTO MID WEEK AS LOOKS LIKE WIND            
 CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN AT LEAST ADVY RANGE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY           
 LK EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE CWA...ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS                
 IN THE LK EFFECT CONVECTIVE LAYER BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR               
 BETTER SNOW GROWTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MODERATE SOME BY TUE (SINGLE                
 DIGITS TO LWR TEENS FOR MAX TEMPS)...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE              
 RULE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MON MIZ006-007-085.                        
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ001>003.                           
 WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST MONDAY MIZ009.                              
 WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ004-005-010>013-084.                 
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ014.                                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 GALE WARNING LK SUP E HALF.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                  
 JLA (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT                                              
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 545 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 ...ARCTIC COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH MON...                 
 LOWEST HEIGHTS AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN NORTH AMERICA IS NEAR            
 UPR MI THIS MORNING AS POLAR VORTEX DROPS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.                
 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO UPR GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD JAMES BAY             
 WILL GIVE THE VORTEX A NUDGE INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY. H85 TEMPS                
 WITHIN THE TROUGH OVR ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES ARE AS LOW AS -37C AT              
 CWPL AND -35C AT KINL. ONLY EXTREME GULF COAST AND WEST CONUS ESCAPE           
 THE SUBZERO H85 TEMPS AS ARCTIC PLUNGE GRIPS MAJORITY OF NATION.               
 MUCH WARMER LAKE WATERS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT MESOSCALE TROUGHING               
 WITH AXIS FM ANJ TO DLH. SPOTTER/LAW ENFORCEMENT/RADAR LOOP                    
 INDICATE BAND OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW ALONG TROUGH                 
 AXIS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE PURE LES REGIME WITH               
 SNOWFALL RATES NOT AS HIGH AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WITHIN THE                      
 CONVERGENCE BAND. GUSTY WINDS YDY AFTN/LAST EVENING RESULTED IN                
 BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THAT              
 HAS SUBSIDED.                                                                  
 TODAY...GOING WITH STATUS QUO TODAY WITH DOMINANT CONVERGENCE BAND             
 PRODUCING THE MOST SNOWFALL AND INCREASING WINDS LEADING TO MORE               
 BLSN/POOR VISIBILITIES NW AND NE CWA. SHORTWAVE ENTERING NW MN MOVES           
 MOSTLY S OF CWA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE AND                
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CURRENT INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5KFT W AND              
 8KFT EAST. OUTSIDE THE CONVERGENCE BAND...EXPECT A FEW INCHES AT               
 BEST. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAND DESPITE POOR               
 SNOW GROWTH                                                                    
 MICROPHYSICS. DESPITE DEEP MIXING...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TOWARD ZERO            
 SIMILAR TO ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND GOING FCST. PRES GRADIENT                  
 TIGHTENS BY AFTN AS SFC HIGH OVR CNTRL CANADA MOVES SE AND LOW PRES            
 REMAINS PERSISTENT OVR QUEBEC. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN SHOULD           
 PRODUCE MORE BLSN OVR NW AND NE CWA.                                           
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY WILL DROP               
 TOWARD EAST LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF UPWARD MOTION WITH              
 SHORTWAVE STAYS TO THE EAST OF CWA...BUT INCREASING H85-H5 MOISTURE            
 AND H9-H85 TEMPS WARMING FROM BLO -30C TO -20C TO -25C SHOULD                  
 INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES OVR NE CWA. LOWER LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE             
 NW WOULD ALSO BRING MORE SNOW TO M-28 CORRIDOR EAST OF MUNISING TO             
 NEWBERRY. LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE WILL BE KEY             
 TO HOW MUCH SNOW. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (NAM/GFS/LOCAL                          
 WRF-ARW/CANADIAN GEM) ALL SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NW             
 IN LOWER LEVELS AND WILL FOCUS CONVERGENCE GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.           
 RUC 13...WHICH HAS DONE QUITE WELL WITH PROJECTED WINDS                        
 LATELY...SHOWS RECENT PATTERN OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...GRAND MARAIS            
 TO TWO HEART...WOULD SEE MOST SNOW. ALTHOUGH AM HESITENT TO GO                 
 AGAINST THE MODEL DOING SO WELL LATELY...THINK STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE           
 WILL OVERWHELM MESOSCALE WIND EFFECTS AND A MORE NW WIND FLOW WILL             
 RESULT. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BTWN           
 20 TO 30 KT PROGGED. SO...WHEREEVER THE CONVERGENCE SETS                       
 UP...WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES LIKELY WILL                 
 OCCUR. FARTHER WEST...CONVERGENCE IS ALSO PROJECTED IN FAVORED AREA            
 BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. AREA IS FARTHER WEST FM DEEPER MOISTURE            
 THOUGH AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE A BIT LOWER...SO ALTHOUGH SNOW                
 SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. STRONG             
 WINDS AND BLSN WILL LIKELY BE LARGER HAZARD.                                   
 TEMPS/WIND CHILLS...UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL OFF             
 AS WINDS ARE GUSTY/STRONG RIGHT AT THE START OF THE EVENING. WINDS             
 LOOK LIKE THEY STAY STEADY ALL NIGHT. SO...ETA MOS SHOWING NEARLY              
 STEADY TEMPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND ONLY MINIMAL DROP FARTHER               
 INLAND MAY BE ON TRACK. SHOWED THIS IDEA IN GRIDS SOME. STILL...EVEN           
 WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY...WINDS GUSTING TO 20           
 MPH AT TIMES RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BLO 35 BELOW AND WARNING SHOULD             
 BE MET IN MOST AREAS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ON INTO MON MORNING AND            
 END RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY.                                                       
 OVERALL...GOING HEADLINES LOOKED FINE AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.                
 LIKELY WILL NEED MORE HEADLINES ON INTO MID WEEK AS LOOKS LIKE WIND            
 CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN AT LEAST ADVY RANGE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY           
 LK EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE CWA...ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS                
 IN THE LK EFFECT CONVECTIVE LAYER BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR               
 BETTER SNOW GROWTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MODERATE SOME BY TUE (SINGLE                
 DIGITS TO LWR TEENS FOR MAX TEMPS)...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE              
 RULE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MON MIZ006-007-085.                        
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ001>003.                           
 WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST MONDAY MIZ009.                              
 WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ004-005-010>013-084.                 
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MON MIZ014.                                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 GALE WARNING LK SUP E HALF.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JLA                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1216 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 TAFS REFLECT GENERAL VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL                    
 AROUND 08Z...WITH ONLY MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...MVFR...             
 BEING AT KFNT WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE SEEN DEVELOPING                 
 SOUTH OF EARLIER BAND. AFTER 08Z...TAFS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH             
 SUNDAY...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY. GIVEN               
 EXPECTED KDTW/KDET LOCATION AT EASTERN TERMINUS OF EXPECTED                    
 PRIMARY WEST TO EAST LAKE EFFECT BAND...HAVE MENTIONED SEVERAL                 
 HOURS OF IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
 AT KDTW/KDET WHEN NEXT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPS SOUTHEAST             
 INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY EVENING TO                  
 ABOUT 35 HUNDRED BROKEN LAYER WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1125 PM EST SAT FEB 3 2007                           
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO REFRESH WORDING. MADE VERY MINOR                     
 ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GOOD CONSENSUS                  
 AMONG EVENING MODEL RUNS STILL DEPICTING OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL                   
 CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH THE                  
 I 94 TO M 59 CORRIDOR. THIS ALREADY STARTING TO MANIFEST ITSELF                
 UPSTREAM IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THIS ALSO SUPPORTED BY                
 1000/850 MB MEAN WIND SLIGHTLY VEERING OVERNIGHT. THUS...ALL                   
 PREVIOUS HEADLINES WILL STAND.                                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 858 PM EST SAT FEB 3 2007                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EARLY               
 TONIGHT IN I 94 AND M 59 AREAS...AS CONVERGENCE BANDING IN THAT                
 AREA HAS BEEN SLOW TO SET UP...INSTEAD THIS EVENING HAVE WEAK                  
 BANDING CENTERED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. LATEST RUC STILL SHOWS                
 DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND...WITH PRESUMEDLY HEAVIER               
 SNOW...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...STILL INTEND TO KEEP THE                  
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY INTACT FOR LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND AND                  
 WASHTENAW COUNTIES...JUST OVERALL SNOWFALL RANGE SHAVED DOWNWARD               
 ABOUT AN INCH. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE ON TARGET...AS ARE                    
 WINDS...SO AM ALSO INTENDING TO KEEP GOING ALL WIND CHILL                      
 ADVISORIES.                                                                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 440 PM EST SAT FEB 3 2007                             
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE BRINGING                
 BRIEF PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DESPITE           
 WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH...OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS                   
 VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE A MILE. PERIODS OF SNOW AND              
 BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING...BEFORE            
 WINDS TAPER OFF AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE LOCALIZED AS WE LOSE              
 DAYTIME INSTABILITY. AREA RADARS ALREADY SHOW SNOW SHOWERS SETTING UP IN       
 MULTIPLE SMALL BANDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDING EAST BETWEEN THE             
 I-96 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. THE NAM12 SHOWS PERSISTENT BANDS                      
 REMAINING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE              
 FINALLY STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
 EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM 11000+ FEET WHERE                 
 THEY CURRENTLY STAND TO AROUND 6500 FEET OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY                   
 RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED               
 TO CLIMB AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE              
 AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A SLIGHT             
 INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A                    
 CONCERN FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE WITH                     
 TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FALLING TO -18 TO -20C OVERNIGHT.                  
 DESPITE THIS...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY                
 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW                     
 ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/WASHTENAW COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW              
 WILL BE FOCUSED. ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL RANGE FROM 3             
 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE              
 SNOW THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT MAKING ACCUMULATIONS VARY WIDELY.                 
 WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA                    
 TONIGHT...CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 INTO MONDAY. WIND                 
 CHILLS SHOULD BE BETWEEN -15 AND -25 DEGREES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.            
 LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
 BITTER ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST.            
 EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH...FOCUSING              
 CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER AS A MAJOR VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS THROUGH             
 THE AREA AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND              
 BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.            
 THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS...AND THUS BETTER              
 RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HENCE...THE CURRENT FORECAST OF BELOW           
 ZERO READINGS THROUGHOUT THE CWA SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH NORTHWEST              
 WINDS STILL UP AROUND 10 MPH (PERHAPS CLOSER TO 15 MPH OVER THE                
 THUMB)...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERION MAY VERY WELL BE MET.                   
 VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SUBZERO           
 LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE              
 POLAR VORTEX DOES RE-CENTER OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND LEAVES THE               
 CENTRAL LAKES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR.              
 THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MODERATION BY MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS BACK                
 INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC                
 SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER                   
 MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RE-ENFORCING              
 SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
 (AND HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS). A CLIPPER TYPE DISTURBANCE IS            
 EXPECTED TO RIDE INTO THE AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NEXT             
 SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...LEADING TO AN BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN              
 THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD                    
 AIR...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH ANY SUCH WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT.            
 ALL AND ALL...A WINTRY PATTERN REMAINS STRONGLY IN PLACE. NO MAJOR             
 CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ075...UNTIL                  
      7 PM SUNDAY.                                                              
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-          
           MIZ083...UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                          
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-          
           MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063...UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                     
 LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...OPEN WATERS...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421 AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT               
     AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.                                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.              
 LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 7 PM                    
                 SUNDAY.                                                        
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL                
                 7 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION AND UPDATES...DWD                                                     
 SHORT TERM...KAHL                                                              
 LONG TERM....DG                                                                
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                          
 900 PM CST MON FEB 5 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY      
 TUESDAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE                 
 OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER WITH PROFILERS INDICATING LITTLE IN THE             
 WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.           
 LATEST NAM/WRF AND RUC SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP               
 ACROSS THE CWA ON THE 275-295K SURFACES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE                
 GREATEST SATURATION IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND            
 NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK.  HAVE BOOSTED POPS A LITTLE NEAR THE           
 IOWA BORDER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS              
 STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN                  
 PORTION OF THE CWA...NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE.                                      
 ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE.              
 NO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NOTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST DESPITE WEAK                     
 ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM H9 AND LOWER. DRY EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE              
 BOUNDARY WAS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY WITH THE LATEST              
 RUC AND NAM/WRF ONLY SUGGESTING A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER...BELOW             
 900 MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN ONE           
 HALF OF THE CWA. THE MOIST LAYER LOOKS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE                  
 DRIZZLE. IT IS NOT EVEN A GIVEN THAT LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOPMENT.             
 OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK ON TARGET.                               
 DB                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                        
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                              
 BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOWER           
 MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF RELINQUISHING ITS GRIP             
 AS WE LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES                 
 REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER NE MO              
 THIS AFTERNOON...READINGS HAD REACHED THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE KS/MO            
 BORDER...AND WERE WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.              
 21Z SURFACE MAP INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT BECOMING INCREASINGLY             
 WELL DEFINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD...                   
 STRETCHING JUST SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS KANSAS...THEN ARCING SOUTHEAST            
 ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS.                                                    
 OVERALL PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH MAINTAINING THE BOUNDARY                  
 POSITION ROUGHLY IN-SITU AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE               
 RIDES ALONG IT TOMORROW BEFORE GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE.             
 FOR TONIGHT...STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL           
 ENCOUNTER AREAS OF SNOW MELT OVER SE KS/SW MO. THIS..COMBINED WITH             
 WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF               
 FOG...STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF           
 THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BASICALLY CARRIED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
 FROM EARLIER. FURTHER NORTH...MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO            
 SEED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN MO WITH NO ACCUMULATION                
 EXPECTED.                                                                      
 ON TUESDAY...LARGER SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE             
 UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER CHANNELED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES THROUGH              
 THE INTENSE MID LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS FAR NE MO.            
 WARM ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP SHARPEN THE MID LEVEL                
 FRONTAL ZONE OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ANOTHER              
 AREA OF BANDED SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.                 
 EXPECT THAT AREAS AFFECTED WILL BE GENERALLY THE SAME AS TODAY...BUT           
 WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING PRESENT...COULD SEE SOME MINOR                
 ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NE MO. RIGHT NOW HAVE MAINTAINED UP TO AN               
 INCH OVER THESE AREAS.                                                         
 FURTHER SOUTHWEST ITS A WHOLE DIFFERENT BALLGAME AS A SHARP                    
 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY MEAN A 15-20F THERMAL GRADIENT BISECTING           
 THE CWA SOMEWHERE. THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS           
 WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAX TEMPS HAVE             
 BEEN WELL COLLABORATED AMONG SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT THE COMPLEXITY             
 OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE                   
 CRITICAL. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS OVER FAR NE            
 MO...TO THE MID 40S IN BUTLER AND PAOLA. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS             
 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER WILL END UP ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE            
 EXPECTATION AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND W/SW SURFACE WINDS.           
 BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...               
 ALTHOUGH THE ARCTIC SURGE UPSTREAM IS SLOWER AND COLD ADVECTION IS             
 LAGGING A BIT. WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE             
 IOWA BORDER TO THE LOWER 20S IN CENTRAL MO...REBOUNDING ONLY BACK              
 INTO THE 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.                 
 BOOKBINDER                                                                     
 LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...                                                 
 THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN             
 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POLAR VORTEX KEEPING A            
 HOLD OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND            
 THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE VORTEX...DROPPING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AT            
 THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EVENTUALLY THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL             
 HELP DRAG THE POLAR VORTEX SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THAT             
 TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COLD               
 AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING           
 SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...CAN`T RULE OUT A                 
 PERIOD OR TWO OF FLURRIES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT.              
 TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW             
 PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.             
 STOFLET                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 418 AM CST MON FEB 5 2007/                                             
 AS PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR           
 NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.                    
 CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY COMING DOWN ACROSS AREA IN THE FAST                
 NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD SUGGEST NORTHERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WOULD            
 BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...WHICH THE           
 GFS PICKS UP ON. WATCHING RADAR ECHOES INCREASE ON THE OMAHA                   
 RADAR...AND WILL PUT IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN GRIDS LINING UP WITH           
 THE TRAJECTORY OF THAT ACTIVITY FOR THE MORNING HOURS WHEN BEST LIFT           
 IS SHOWING UP.                                                                 
 UPPER FLOW WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION THIS WEEK TO BECOME LESS            
 AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAIN FOCUS              
 WILL BE ON A WAVE CURRENTLY TOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE...THAT WILL BE           
 INVOKING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY           
 THIS EVENING...RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z ON                
 TUESDAY. THIS CLIPPER TYPE WAVE WILL HELP TO PULL A WARM FRONT INTO            
 EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH                    
 INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280 AND 285K SURFACES.             
 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND LOW LEVEL             
 MOISTURE COMING OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL            
 THAT MOISTURE ARRIVES...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO EKE OUT MUCH PRECIP WITH           
 THE EXPECTED WAA TONIGHT WITH THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
 AVAILABLE. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHES OF               
 FREEZING DRIZZLE..SO WILL NOT PULL WHAT WE HAVE GOING IN THE                   
 FORECAST...BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS WILL BE VERY                 
 LIGHT. DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE              
 WARM FRONT BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS CLIPPER APPROACHES...WITH THE              
 FRONT EXPECTED TO LINE UP FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL                   
 MISSOURI. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF             
 THIS BOUNDARY...CLOSER TO THE H850 LOW TRACK...WHICH WOULD TARGET              
 NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR            
 SO.                                                                            
 REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDINESS TODAY ALONG WITH AN EAST              
 FETCH TO THE WINDS WILL INHIBIT TEMPERATURES TRENDS...SO WILL LIMIT            
 DIURNAL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES               
 BOTTOM OUT DURING THE EVENING...BUT AS WARM FRONT SETS UP                      
 OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER...EXPECT TO SEE THOSE READINGS            
 START TO RISE.                                                                 
 PC                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 WFO EAX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE                                     
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                        
 1205 PM CST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT             
 COLD FRONT BOOSTING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 30S LATE THIS MORNING IN           
 SOME AREAS ALONG THE AR BORDER. SURFACE TROUGH IS ROUGHLY 2/3RDS OF            
 THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA...WITH A GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS EXPECTED            
 TODAY. SOME AREAS OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS REGION MAY HAVE ALREADY                
 REACHED UP NEAR THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AS COLD AIR                
 ADVECTION STARTS TO COUNTERACT DIURNAL HEATING. DSA                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                        
 //320 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007//                                                  
 BEFORE TERM (SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING)...                                 
 BEFORE DIVING INTO THE FORECAST WOULD LIKE TO BRIEFLY PUT ON MY                
 FORENSIC METEOROLOGY HAT AND TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED WITH                 
 SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENINGS "SURPRISE" SNOW. A REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR            
 IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT TWO SEPARATE VORT                
 MAXES APPEAR TO HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...THE FIRST ONE            
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON REALLY DIDNT BECOME DISTINGUISHABLE ON WATER                
 VAPOR IMAGERY UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE SECOND AND STRONGER OF           
 THE TWO SHORTWAVES REALLY BECAME EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN           
 NEBRASKA AROUND 20Z AND RAPIDLY MOVED INTO THE OZARKS SATURDAY                 
 EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVES WERE VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND THUS NOT WELL             
 RESOLVED IN OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL MODELS.                                      
 THE SECOND SHORTWAVE SATURDAY EVENING APPEARS TO HAVE LEAD TO A                
 TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH THE RUC                    
 INDICATING STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-700MB LAYER. IN              
 ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING DUE TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL            
 FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WE WERE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE                
 ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 85-100KT 500MB JET STREAK                 
 EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST                 
 NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FINALLY...00Z KSGF EVENING SOUNDING           
 SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF TWO LEVELS OF NEUTRAL STATIC STABILITY/WEAK             
 CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THE FIRST EXTENDING FROM 830-770MB...THE                
 SECOND DEEPER LAYER EXTENDING FROM 760-650MB WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL TO            
 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES IN BOTH LAYERS.                          
 WHAT ENDED UP DEVELOPING WAS A BROAD BAND OF FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW WITH            
 A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. RELATIVELY SPARSE           
 LATE NIGHT REPORTS INDICATE THAT A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO LOCALLY MORE           
 THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL FROM DADE COUNTY ESE ACROSS NORTHERN                
 GREENE COUNTY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HOWELL COUNTY. UNFORTUNATELY               
 SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES ARE ARGUABLY UNFORECASTABLE BEYOND 12                
 HOURS OUT AND EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO FORECAST EVEN 6 HOURS OUT               
 GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND UPPER AIR                
 OBSERVATION NETWORK.                                                           
 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR           
 SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND WEAKENING...WITH RECENT RADAR            
 TRENDS ALSO SHOWING SNOWFALL DECREASING. IN ADDITION...RUC SHOWS A             
 CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENESIS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WITH             
 HINT OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS GONE BEFORE 12Z...SO WE SHOULD BE              
 ABLE TO ALLOW SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.                            
 LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ELONGATED            
 SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD. NARROW BAND OF PATCHY                 
 CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET WILL OBSCURE THE SKY FROM             
 TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AT LEAST PERIODIC SUNSHINE CAN BE             
 EXPECTED TODAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS...SNOW COVER...AND THE ARCTIC                 
 AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE TREND OF            
 UNDERCUTTING MAV GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES.                   
 POWERFUL CLOSED LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ONSHORE THE             
 NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL CREST THE HIGH AMPLITUDE                  
 WESTERN RIDGE TODAY AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN                   
 PRAIRIES BY MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A           
 CONFLUENT FLOW IT SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER                 
 TROUGH EASTWARD SOME WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING IN OUR              
 AREA. WE ARENT LIKELY TO SEE MUCH OF A RESPONSE IN SURFACE                     
 TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO RETREAT AND              
 OUR SURFACE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR.                 
 LONGER TERM (MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD)...                                           
 SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RIDE THE            
 POLAR FRONT JET QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                
 DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD CAUSE WINDS            
 TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE                   
 TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL            
 LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES           
 LIKELY REACHED IN THE EARLY EVENING AGAIN WITH RISING TEMPERATURES             
 OVERNIGHT.                                                                     
 THE RISING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL SERVE AS A NICE PLATFORM             
 FOR TEMPERATURES TO TAKE OFF FROM ON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS            
 WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING AND ALLOW SOME OF THE VERY MILD CHINOOK             
 WARMED TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX TO THE GROUND AND            
 TO SOME EXTENT COUNTERACT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE LINGERING SNOW            
 COVER. IF IT WERENT FOR THE SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY               
 CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER FAR SOUTHWEST                          
 MISSOURI...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY TAKE A BITE OUT OF           
 OUR TEMPS AND HAVE THEREFORE REMAINED CLOSER TO THE MUCH COOLER MAV            
 GUIDANCE. WORRIED THAT I AM STILL OVERESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SNOW           
 COVER AND AM TOO CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPS TUESDAY BUT ALREADY RAISED              
 TEMPS 10-15F FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DONT WANT TO GET TOO                  
 CARRIED AWAY YET.                                                              
 UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE READY FOR SPRING...THE WARM UP TUESDAY WILL            
 BE SHORT LIVED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN            
 THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS CLIPPER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIRMASS             
 WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT ONE IS LATER IN THE WEEK.            
 THAT AND THE EXPECTED LOSS OF SNOW COVER ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO             
 TEMPS AT A MORE REASONABLE BELOW AVERAGE LEVEL AS OPPOSED TO THE               
 CURRENT 15-20F BELOW AVERAGE LEVEL THAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO           
 LATELY. ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT            
 LEAST SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE                 
 UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT BUT DAY SHIFTS               
 APPROACH OF SPLATTERING SILENT SCHC POPS OVER MUCH OF THAT TIME                
 FRAME SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS               
 THIS FAR OUT.                                                                  
 IZZI                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE           
 AREA ATTM...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE W-NW. HIGH PRESSURE            
 WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR                  
 CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  DSA                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 6 AM.                      
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 WFO SGF                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                        
 320 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 BEFORE TERM (SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING)...                                 
 BEFORE DIVING INTO THE FORECAST WOULD LIKE TO BRIEFLY PUT ON MY                
 FORENSIC METEOROLOGY HAT AND TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED WITH                 
 SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENINGS "SURPRISE" SNOW. A REVIEW OF WATER VAPOR            
 IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT TWO SEPARATE VORT                
 MAXES APPEAR TO HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...THE FIRST ONE            
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON REALLY DIDNT BECOME DISTINGUISHABLE ON WATER                
 VAPOR IMAGERY UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE SECOND AND STRONGER OF           
 THE TWO SHORTWAVES REALLY BECAME EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN           
 NEBRASKA AROUND 20Z AND RAPIDLY MOVED INTO THE OZARKS SATURDAY                 
 EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVES WERE VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND THUS NOT WELL             
 RESOLVED IN OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL MODELS.                                      
 THE SECOND SHORTWAVE SATURDAY EVENING APPEARS TO HAVE LEAD TO A                
 TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH THE RUC                    
 INDICATING STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-700MB LAYER. IN              
 ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING DUE TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL            
 FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WE WERE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE                
 ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 85-100KT 500MB JET STREAK                 
 EVIDENT IN REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST                 
 NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FINALLY...00Z KSGF EVENING SOUNDING           
 SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF TWO LEVELS OF NEUTRAL STATIC STABILITY/WEAK             
 CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THE FIRST EXTENDING FROM 830-770MB...THE                
 SECOND DEEPER LAYER EXTENDING FROM 760-650MB WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL TO            
 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES IN BOTH LAYERS.                          
 WHAT ENDED UP DEVELOPING WAS A BROAD BAND OF FAIRLY LIGHT SNOW WITH            
 A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. RELATIVELY SPARSE           
 LATE NIGHT REPORTS INDICATE THAT A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO LOCALLY MORE           
 THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL FROM DADE COUNTY ESE ACROSS NORTHERN                
 GREENE COUNTY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HOWELL COUNTY. UNFORTUNATELY               
 SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES ARE ARGUABLY UNFORECASTABLE BEYOND 12                
 HOURS OUT AND EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO FORECAST EVEN 6 HOURS OUT               
 GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND UPPER AIR                
 OBSERVATION NETWORK.                                                           
 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR           
 SNOWFALL IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND WEAKENING...WITH RECENT RADAR            
 TRENDS ALSO SHOWING SNOWFALL DECREASING. IN ADDITION...RUC SHOWS A             
 CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENESIS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WITH             
 HINT OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS GONE BEFORE 12Z...SO WE SHOULD BE              
 ABLE TO ALLOW SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.                            
 LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ELONGATED            
 SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD. NARROW BAND OF PATCHY                 
 CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET WILL OBSCURE THE SKY FROM             
 TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AT LEAST PERIODIC SUNSHINE CAN BE             
 EXPECTED TODAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS...SNOW COVER...AND THE ARCTIC                 
 AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE TREND OF            
 UNDERCUTTING MAV GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES.                   
 POWERFUL CLOSED LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ONSHORE THE             
 NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL CREST THE HIGH AMPLITUDE                  
 WESTERN RIDGE TODAY AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN                   
 PRAIRIES BY MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A           
 CONFLUENT FLOW IT SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER                 
 TROUGH EASTWARD SOME WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BEGINNING IN OUR              
 AREA. WE ARENT LIKELY TO SEE MUCH OF A RESPONSE IN SURFACE                     
 TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO RETREAT AND              
 OUR SURFACE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR.                 
 LONGER TERM (MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD)...                                           
 SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RIDE THE            
 POLAR FRONT JET QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                
 DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH THIS ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD CAUSE WINDS            
 TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE                   
 TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL            
 LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES           
 LIKELY REACHED IN THE EARLY EVENING AGAIN WITH RISING TEMPERATURES             
 OVERNIGHT.                                                                     
 THE RISING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL SERVE AS A NICE PLATFORM             
 FOR TEMPERATURES TO TAKE OFF FROM ON TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS            
 WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING AND ALLOW SOME OF THE VERY MILD CHINOOK             
 WARMED TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX TO THE GROUND AND            
 TO SOME EXTENT COUNTERACT THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE LINGERING SNOW            
 COVER. IF IT WERENT FOR THE SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY               
 CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER FAR SOUTHWEST                          
 MISSOURI...HOWEVER LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY TAKE A BITE OUT OF           
 OUR TEMPS AND HAVE THEREFORE REMAINED CLOSER TO THE MUCH COOLER MAV            
 GUIDANCE. WORRIED THAT I AM STILL OVERESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SNOW           
 COVER AND AM TOO CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPS TUESDAY BUT ALREADY RAISED              
 TEMPS 10-15F FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DONT WANT TO GET TOO                  
 CARRIED AWAY YET.                                                              
 UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE READY FOR SPRING...THE WARM UP TUESDAY WILL            
 BE SHORT LIVED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN            
 THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS CLIPPER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIRMASS             
 WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT ONE IS LATER IN THE WEEK.            
 THAT AND THE EXPECTED LOSS OF SNOW COVER ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO             
 TEMPS AT A MORE REASONABLE BELOW AVERAGE LEVEL AS OPPOSED TO THE               
 CURRENT 15-20F BELOW AVERAGE LEVEL THAT WE HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO           
 LATELY. ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT            
 LEAST SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE                 
 UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT BUT DAY SHIFTS               
 APPROACH OF SPLATTERING SILENT SCHC POPS OVER MUCH OF THAT TIME                
 FRAME SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS               
 THIS FAR OUT.                                                                  
 IZZI                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY            
 THIS MORNING AT THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS. INTERMITTENT             
 FLURRIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ABOUT SUNRISE BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE            
 IMPACT ON THE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                
 TODAY.                                                                         
 FOSTER                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 6 AM.                      
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 WFO SGF                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                           
 854 PM MST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...                                         
 MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH THE                
 CLOUDS AS WELL AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS...TEMPERATURES              
 STAYING UP PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME...SO WILL BE RAISING                       
 TEMPERATURES ALL AREAS FOR THE UPDATE. MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL                
 ZONES STILL IN THE 40S. WILL BE RAISING MOST AREAS IN THE WEST                 
 ABOVE FREEZING OR CLOSE TO IT. COLDER IN THE EAST...BUT WARMER                 
 THERE AS WELL AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OUT OF SINGLE DIGITS                
 INTO 20S AND TEENS. MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
 FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL ZONES...BASICALLY TO THE WEST OF MILES                
 CITY AND EAST AND NORTH OF BILLINGS. MODELS NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH               
 OF A WARM TONGUE AT LOW LEVELS...BUT ARE 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL               
 AROUND 800 MB LOOKING AT GGW SOUNDING THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH THE              
 SMALL AREA OF WARM AIR ALOFT NAM/GFS SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF                    
 FREEZING RAIN AND WITH THE WARMER AREA OF AIR NOT PICKED UP                    
 WELL...WORTH MENTIONING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED                 
 WITH RAIN OR SNOW. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH BOTH OFFICES TO THE                 
 NORTH. WINDS NOT TOO BAD IN NYE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY                  
 GOING. ALSO RAISED POPS IN EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING WITH                 
 OVERRUNNING AREA CONTINUING THERE IN THE MORNING HOURS. STILL                  
 LOOKING LIKE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER BIG HORN COUNTY             
 EAST INTO MILES CITY AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO             
 BE FORECAST BY NAM/GFS AND RUC SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN                
 SOME AREAS THAT WERE AT SCATTERED THERE. ALSO RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS              
 IN CRAZY AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. RASCH            
 .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...                          
 MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU ABOUT THU...THEN DIVERGE A GREAT              
 DEAL LATE IN WORK WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR               
 MIDDLE PART OF WEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD SNAP THAT GFS IS                        
 ADVERTISING AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUBIOUS AT THIS TIME AS                 
 ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER SOLUTION.               
 DUE TO CONSISTENCY WITH GFS AND GENERAL AGREEMENT BY OTHER                     
 MODELS...HAVE MADE SURE TO BUMP UP POPS TO AROUND OR ABOVE                     
 GUIDANCE AND CLIMO NORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW               
 AND BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDE GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH              
 OF AREA. SEEMS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER THRU AT LEAST THU PROVIDING                
 CHANCE OF SNOW WHEREVER IT MAY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED              
 TO TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN.                                                  
 LATE WORK WEEK...GFS BRINGS DOWN ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF REINFORCING              
 COLD AIR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF HAS UPPER RIDGE ALREADY              
 INFLUENCING THE PICTURE AND KEEPING COLDEST AIR WELL EAST OF OUR               
 REGION. THROUGH COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES WILL NOT JUMP ON               
 THIS REINFORCING SHOT JUST YET. WILL SIMPLY TREND TEMPS TOWARD GFS             
 ENSEMBLE MEANS DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.                                        
 GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A                 
 WARMING TREND CATCH ON AND STICK FOR AWHILE. TESAR                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...               
 BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND                   
 MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN               
 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF HYSHAM THIS EVENING...BEFORE                   
 CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED FREEZING                   
 RAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS                      
 OVERNIGHT. CARPENTER                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                
     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN                        
 -----------------------------------------------------------                    
 BIL 036/057 030/037 017/022 010/022 006/025 011/028 019/033                    
     40/B    03/S    65/S    33/S    32/S    21/B    12/S                       
 LVM 039/055 034/043 023/029 017/027 007/027 014/033 024/039                    
     30/N    03/R    43/S    23/S    32/S    22/S    22/R                       
 HDN 030/049 021/037 013/027 007/026 003/029 007/028 015/030                    
     62/S    02/S    66/S    33/S    32/S    21/B    12/S                       
 MLS 020/032 013/020 001/012 902/015 902/015 004/024 008/025                    
     66/S    23/S    43/S    33/S    22/S    11/B    11/B                       
 4BQ 023/039 021/034 009/023 007/023 004/021 006/027 010/028                    
     66/O    12/S    66/S    33/S    22/S    11/B    11/B                       
 BHK 011/030 008/015 901/008 904/010 904/013 004/022 005/025                    
     36/S    33/S    33/S    33/S    21/B    11/B    11/B                       
 SHR 032/047 024/036 018/025 011/024 005/025 007/027 014/031                    
     62/O    02/S    53/S    23/S    22/S    22/S    02/S                       
 &&                                                                             
 .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR ZONE 66.               
 WY...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                           
</pre> mt                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                       
 245 AM CST MON FEB 5 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BASIC TREND OF THE FORECAST SO                   
 LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES STILL                    
 APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH                
 CLIPPER SYSTEM AND MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INDICATED.                        
 CLOUD SHIELD HAD OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AND HAS HELPED            
 HOLD TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLOUD                 
 COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND NEARLY NEUTRAL                    
 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EXPECT TO SEE ONLY A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE.               
 06Z RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRETTY DRY LOWER LEVELS THIS MORNING SO              
 WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THAT TIME PERIOD BUT KEEP                   
 SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS LESS CERTAIN WITH              
 MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME.                                                     
 LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN TONIGHT AS CLIPPER DROPS INTO                
 THE PLAINS REGION. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM               
 AND GFS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BASE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON              
 FASTER GFS SOLUTION. ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO ALL THE CWA FIRST PART             
 OF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXED PRECIP STILL                 
 POSSIBLE.                                                                      
 ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE                  
 MOVES THROUGH WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION FROM 500MB           
 ON DOWN COINCIDING WITH DENDRITIC LAYER MID LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL ALSO.          
 NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME WITH 00Z GFS TRENDING            
 COLDER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 FOBERT                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1243 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /051800Z-061800Z/...                                                 
 LES BAND IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF                 
 SYR/RME EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO               
 PRECIP ANTICIPATED. SHSN AND BLSN AT RME/SYR WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO              
 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS...WITH VLIFR VSBYS             
 POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY LET UP DURING THE              
 EVENING SO EXPECT BLSN TO BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN AND PREDOMINANT             
 VSBYS RISING AS A RESULT EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT BAND TO BEGIN TO                
 PULL NORTH TOMORROW...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE RME A BREAK                  
 THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT SYR TO COME OUT OF                
 THE WORST TOMORROW MORNING...LIFTING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.                     
 STRONG WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY                   
 WEAKEN THIS EVENING...FALLING TO 10-15KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1049 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 ALL LAKE SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES. STRONG                
 SINGLE BAND LES PLUME POUNDING ONEIDA COUNTY...AND THE EXTREME                 
 NORTH OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON. SATL AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW UPSTREAM             
 CONNECTIONS...AND ONTARIO BAND DIPPING SOUTH. WRF12/RUC AND LOCAL              
 WRF RUNS SHOW A SWD TREND...BUT THE REAL BAND IS WELL AHEAD OF THE             
 MODEL SCHEDULE. STILL THINKING THE SWD PUSH WILL STALL OUT                     
 SOON...WITH PLUME REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE TODAY BEFORE                   
 SLOWLY REORIENTING MORE WEST-EAST TONIGHT. THIS MEANS SOME MINOR               
 ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMS OVER FAR NE PART OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE                  
 HEAVY SNOWS WILL STOP FOR A TIME TODAY...BUT ELSEWHERE FROM SYR-RME            
 WILL BE IN THE THICK OF IT. UTICA WILL PROBABLY REACH LOW END                  
 WARNING ACCUMS...BUT GENERALLY ON THE FRINGE FOR HIGH IMPACT.                  
 FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...NOT MUCH IS GOING ON BUT THE                   
 BITTER COLD. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT CHC              
 FOR SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMS FROM SCT SHSN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES               
 REGION...BUT TRIMMED ALL POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO JUST FLURRIES OR                
 NIL WX FOR NEPA.                                                               
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 632 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KRME AROUND 15Z.                   
 INITIALLY...CIGS WILL BE MVFR AT 1500FT WITH IFR VSBYS IN SNOW                 
 SHOWERS. OCNL LIFR CONDS EXPECTED FROM 15-18Z AS BAND TRIES TO GET             
 BETTER ORGANIZED. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT LIFR CONDS AS SNOW SETS UP                
 ACROSS TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE WRLY 15KTS GUSTS TO 20KTS THRU MOST             
 OF THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
 AT KSYR...MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AIRPORT.              
 LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN AROUND 17Z WITH MVFR CONDS                   
 EXPECTED. OCNL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS POSSIBLE BTWN 17-21Z AS BAND              
 COULD SLIP SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARD AIRPORT. WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG               
 AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GENERALLY 15KTS GUSTS TO 30KTS.                 
 VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER SITES THRU PERIOD. SOME SCT-BKN CIGS           
 4K-5KFT POSSIBLE AS TROF PASSES THRU NY/NEPA. WESTERLY WINDS ARND              
 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU 00Z.                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 227 AM EST MON FEB 5 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 NORTHERN CWA FINALLY GETTING A SHARE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.                 
 BAND HAS SLIPPED INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY...ALMOST ON TIME TONIGHT.              
 UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF 6-7 INCHES IN 3 HRS NORTH OF THE FA                      
 OVERNIGHT. BAND STILL LOOKS TO BE JUST AS INTENSE AS IT WAS AT                 
 THAT TIME. HEAVIEST SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTING OVER NE ONEIDA FOR A              
 SOLID 4-5 HOURS NOW. AS FCST BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...REGION HAS LIKELY             
 PICKED UP 8-10 INCHES BY NOW. WITH SFC TROF STILL A FEW HRS AWAY               
 FROM SHIFTING THE BAND NORTH...HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN FOR               
 NRN ONEIDA TO OVER A FOOT BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE             
 SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CAPES OVER 1200.                                   
 SFC TROF CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS LEWIS CTY. AS IT             
 SLIPS DOWN TOWARD ONEIDA ARND 12Z...WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD OF IT.               
 THIS COULD DISRUPT BAND AND GIVE THE AREA A BRIEF BREAK IN THE                 
 ACTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BAND LOOKS TO RE-               
 INTENSIFY ARND 15Z AND STEADY SNOW WILL DROP IN AGAIN DURING THE               
 AFTERNOON. DISRUPTION MAY DECREASE SNOWFALL RATES A TAD THE                    
 REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BUT OMEGA REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH THRU MID-               
 AFTERNOON SO AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE.                                
 AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH TROF PASSAGE...BAND WILL SLIP INTO                    
 EXTREME NRN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BAND               
 IS FCST TO STAY ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THESE CTYS THRU 12Z TUESDAY               
 BEFORE SHIFT NORTH AGAIN. AREAS FROM BREWERTON...CICERO...ONEIDA               
 AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF ONEIDA LAKE WILL SEE MOST INTENSE                 
 SNOWFALL. ACCUMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE ARND 6-10 INCHES...LOCALLY             
 HIGHER DEPENDING ON EXACT SETUP OF BAND. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY                
 OCCUR FROM EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                             
 AS FOR SRN ONEIDA BAND HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO THE AREA...JUST                 
 NORTH OF A ROME TO HOLLAND PATENT LINE. SNOW SINKS FURTHER SOUTH               
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH VEERING WINDS. THUS...WILL PUT WARNING INTO                
 EFFECT IMMEDIATELY RATHER THAN WAITING UNTIL NOON. INTENSE                     
 LIFT...DEEP INVERSION AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO HIGH                
 SNOW RATES WITH 10-16 INCHES EXPECTED NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.                    
 AS IF THIS IS NOT ENOUGH...WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS                  
 MINUS 17 AS OF 2 AM. WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10KTS. THESE WILL               
 PICK UP DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB TO NR 10 OR A TAD             
 ABOVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WIND CHILL                   
 ADVISORY THRU THE DAY TODAY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.                       
 ALL IN ALL...WILL HAVE 4 ZONES UNDER LES WARNINGS. ONEIDA UNTIL                
 TUESDAY EVENING FOR SNOW TOTALS OF UP TO 2 FEET IN NRN ONEIDA AND              
 10-16 OVER SRN ONEIDA. ONONDAGA AND MADISON GO INTO AFFECT AT 10               
 AM THIS MORNING THRU 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR 6-10 INCHES OVER THE             
 NORTH. ONLY MINOR ACCUMS EXPECTED DOWN SOUTH. WILL REVISE AS                   
 NECESSARY. SNOWS MAY END BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAKE AIM AT                      
 WATERTOWN AGAIN.                                                               
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
 FOLLOWED HPC FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH ALMOST NO ADJUSTMENTS.                     
 MREF ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF              
 THE CONUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE AREA WITH COLDER THAN              
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE USUAL SPOTS.                 
 CLIPPER LOW DIVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY ON               
 TUESDAY...HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A                 
 FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS                
 ACROSS NEPA...WITH ONLY PRECIP AREAS DUE TO LES IN UPSTATE NY.                 
 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATED A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROF           
 AND SFC REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT HAS LITTLE              
 SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR MUCH QPF...AND ALSO THE LATEST 12Z           
 GFS. ASIDE FROM SCT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF             
 FCST AREA...PRETTY MUCH ALL THIS PERIOD TO THE SOUTH OF THE                    
 RT-17/I-86 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE DRY.                                             
 COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST EARLY IN THIS             
 PERIOD...WITH THERMAL FIELDS THEN REMAINING ONLY 1SD BELOW NORMAL              
 UNTIL TROF FLATTENS A BIT NEXT SUNDAY WITH MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL            
 NOTED BY SUNDAY.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-           
      022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                                      
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-037.           
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ018-036.           
 PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-           
      044-047-048-072.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...JMA                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 306 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY WITH A CLOUD                   
 LAYER WITH BASES 6-7 KFT ABOUT TO BEGIN SKIM NEAR OR JUST WEST OF              
 A DEVILS LAKE-VALLEY CITY LINE. SOME FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND              
 TOO IN SASK FROM THESE CLOUDS AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE HEELS             
 OF A JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WHILE STAYING               
 ON THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. RUC/NAM WANT TO DISSIPATE                
 THE LAYER SOMEWHAT BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO WANT TO DO THAT. GFS               
 CONTINUES TO THINK CLOUDS ARE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A                 
 MINOR ISSUE BUT WILL AFFECT SUNSHINE MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST ND.                  
 TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED (NASTILY) AND WILL                 
 BE DIFFICULT TO WARM VERY MUCH TODAY. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS                    
 NECESSARY IN FORECAST.                                                         
 ARCTIC RIDGE TO STAY PUT IN VICINITY...EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO                  
 SOUTHEAST FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT AT LEAST IT KEEPS THE WINDS              
 BELOW THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINE ISSUES.                     
 LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND ENTER CENTRAL                   
 ALBERTA LATE ON MON. CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS/ECWMF/UKMET/CANADIAN                
 MAKES THE LOW CLING TO THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE REACHING THE MID-                
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEY THEN REASSERT THE ARCTIC RIDGE TO OUR                 
 SOUTHWEST FLANK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. BUT NAM SOMEHOW IS ABLE                
 TO CAUSE THE LOW TO UNDERCUT OR SHOVE THE ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE                
 WAY IN ALBERTA AND REACH ND ON TUE. MEANWHILE ITS LOW LEVEL                    
 CIRCULATIONS ARE IN ODD LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH THE JET. TOSSED                   
 OUT THIS SOLUTION AND STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH ALSO MEANT NOT                
 PUSHING PRECIPITATION SO FAR EAST OR KEEP IT LASTING SO LONG ON                
 TUE.                                                                           
 .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS HERE AS GUIDANCE              
 IS SIMILAR THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING THEIR TYPICAL TROUBLES                     
 HANDLING A PATTERN CHANGE. WEST COAST 500 MB RIDGE IS STILL                    
 EXPECTED BY ALL MODELS TO UNDERGO A SLOW (EMPHASIZE SLOW) DEMISE.              
 THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSTEADY WARMING TREND FOR US.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 GV                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                  
 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR TODAY. STUBBORN CIRRUS CANOPY TO PERSIST NEAR           
 THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND...MIGHT GET SOME              
 PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AND TOSSED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY            
 AROUND 12Z. 43                                                                 
 .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CLEARING TREND FINALLY                 
 MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA                 
 THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE                  
 WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE              
 STREAMING AHEAD OF A 200MB TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC80                
 1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEST TO NORTHWEST              
 FLOW ACROSS EAST TX. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO                
 SOUTHEAST TX THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE              
 WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF              
 MEXICO. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER TODAY.                   
 ALSO...WITH MORE SUN NORTH AND WEST...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW               
 HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO WARM SLIGHTLY MORE. WILL BUMP TEMPS A                  
 DEGREE WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. 32              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007/                         
 AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR                      
 CONDITIONS...VSBY... DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...SUNDAY WILL BE                 
 ANOTHER DAY OF SOLID VFR FLYING CONDITION OVER SE TEXAS.                       
 KCXO...KIAH...AND KDWH CURRENTLY REPORT LIGHT FOG WITH                         
 VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 SM. THE CIRRUS OVERCAST SHOULD                
 INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF DENSER FOG THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE REDUCE                
 VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 3 SM. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR FOG WILL                   
 LIKELY BE MORE EXTENSIVE DURING THE MONDAY PREDAWN HOURS AS THERE              
 SHOULD BE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA. 44                                
 MARINE...                                                                      
 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO                
 SHIFT TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THE                 
 SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
 THE RIDGE.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE              
 WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE A MODERATE           
 ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE THAT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF           
 NEXT WEEK. 44                                                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007/                        
 CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUING FROM EASTERN MEXICO              
 TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE                
 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW SHIFTING TO EAST OF OUR REGION WITH                    
 EASTERLY WINDS NOTED ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS                 
 (ALBEIT WEAK) ALREADY SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH LEVEL             
 CLOUD COVER SHOULD START TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST               
 LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR                 
 SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY              
 INCREASING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING                    
 ESTABLISHED. COLD SURFACE CANADIAN ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH              
 MAINLY TO EAST OF OUR REGION TOMORROW WITH RIDGE LINE EXTENDING                
 FROM THE NORTHERN MIDWEST TO TENNESSEE. TUESDAY WILL SEE FALLING               
 PRESSURES OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER             
 SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS AFOREMENTIONED...LOWER LEVELS               
 WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN               
 RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATER THIS COMING WEEK. COLD FRONT INDICATED              
 BY GFS TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY AND ESSENTIALLY STALL               
 OVER THAT REGION POSSIBLY SAGGING SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY. GFS              
 INDICATE A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE                  
 SOUTHERN PORTION OF TEXAS ON FRIDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE                
 MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOISTENING UP AND AIR MASS BECOMING SLIGHTLY              
 UNSTABLE LATE FRIDAY. WE INTRODUCED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY             
 AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED             
 TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                
 GFS PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE TRAPPED MOISTURE                   
 BEHIND FRONT.                                                                  
 37                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  38  63  43  65 /   0   0   0   0   0            
 HOUSTON (IAH)              63  40  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0   0            
 GALVESTON (GLS)            62  48  62  52  64 /   0   0   0   0   0            
 &&                                                                             
 .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DISCUSSION...32                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                  
 958 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CLEARING TREND FINALLY                 
 MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA                 
 THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE                  
 WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE              
 STREAMING AHEAD OF A 200MB TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. RUC80                
 1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEST TO NORTHWEST              
 FLOW ACROSS EAST TX. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO                
 SOUTHEAST TX THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE              
 WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF              
 MEXICO. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER TODAY.                   
 ALSO...WITH MORE SUN NORTH AND WEST...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW               
 HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO WARM SLIGHTLY MORE. WILL BUMP TEMPS A                  
 DEGREE WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. 32              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007/                         
 AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR                      
 CONDITIONS...VSBY... DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...SUNDAY WILL BE                 
 ANOTHER DAY OF SOLID VFR FLYING CONDITION OVER SE TEXAS.                       
 KCXO...KIAH...AND KDWH CURRENTLY REPORT LIGHT FOG WITH                         
 VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 SM. THE CIRRUS OVERCAST SHOULD                
 INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF DENSER FOG THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE REDUCE                
 VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 3 SM. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR FOG WILL                   
 LIKELY BE MORE EXTENSIVE DURING THE MONDAY PREDAWN HOURS AS THERE              
 SHOULD BE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA. 44                                
 MARINE...                                                                      
 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO                
 SHIFT TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AS THE                 
 SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF               
 THE RIDGE.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE              
 WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE A MODERATE           
 ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE THAT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF           
 NEXT WEEK. 44                                                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 4 2007/                        
 CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUING FROM EASTERN MEXICO              
 TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE                
 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW SHIFTING TO EAST OF OUR REGION WITH                    
 EASTERLY WINDS NOTED ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS                 
 (ALBEIT WEAK) ALREADY SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH LEVEL             
 CLOUD COVER SHOULD START TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST               
 LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR                 
 SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY              
 INCREASING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING                    
 ESTABLISHED. COLD SURFACE CANADIAN ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH              
 MAINLY TO EAST OF OUR REGION TOMORROW WITH RIDGE LINE EXTENDING                
 FROM THE NORTHERN MIDWEST TO TENNESSEE. TUESDAY WILL SEE FALLING               
 PRESSURES OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER             
 SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS AFOREMENTIONED...LOWER LEVELS               
 WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN               
 RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL LATER THIS COMING WEEK. COLD FRONT INDICATED              
 BY GFS TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY AND ESSENTIALLY STALL               
 OVER THAT REGION POSSIBLY SAGGING SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY. GFS              
 INDICATE A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE                  
 SOUTHERN PORTION OF TEXAS ON FRIDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE                
 MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOISTENING UP AND AIR MASS BECOMING SLIGHTLY              
 UNSTABLE LATE FRIDAY. WE INTRODUCED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY             
 AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED             
 TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                
 GFS PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE TRAPPED MOISTURE                   
 BEHIND FRONT.                                                                  
 37                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  38  63  43  65 /   0   0   0   0   0            
 HOUSTON (IAH)              63  40  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0   0            
 GALVESTON (GLS)            62  48  62  52  64 /   0   0   0   0   0            
 &&                                                                             
 .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 TX...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DISCUSSION...32                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 818 PM CST MON FEB 5 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...EVALUATION OF 00Z UPPER AIR...CURRENT RUC AND PRESENT                
 WEATHER TRENDS LEADS TO CONTINUING WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS                  
 SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 10 AM CST TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND FIELD              
 ALONG WITH RUC BUFKIT DATA OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOW SPEEDS                
 HOVERING AROUND THE 10 MPH CRITERIA...PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS                   
 AROUND -20. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER CLEAR                
 SKIES TOWARD DEW POINTS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. ALTHOUGH RUC                    
 INDICATES A SLOW RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES OVERNIGHT...A                 
 LACK OF 3 HOUR PRESSURE SURFACE FALLS INDICATES THAT WARM AIR                  
 ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ABSENT TONIGHT.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CST MON FEB 5 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT ON WIND CHILL ISSUES AND THEN ATTENTION TUR
 TO QUICK HITTING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.                                           
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...AND  
 SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL PLUNGE WELL BELOW         
 ZERO...BUT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN                   
 VERIFYING WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST WHERE             
 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH. WILL CANCEL ADVISORY FOR            
 WESTERN HALF AT A MINIMUM.                                                     
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO QUICK HITTING CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY. MODELS                 
 BRING 150KT 300 MB JET MAX SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CWA. 500 MB 27 UNIT VORTICITY  
 MAX...AND MAX 500 MB TO 700 MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS BOTH SOUTH OF CWA           
 AROUND 21Z TUE. GFS INGREDIENTS PLOTS DO SHOW OVERLAP OF 2D                    
 FRONTOGENESIS AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 18Z              
 TUE...HOWEVER NAM SHOWING MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND BEST ALIGNS WITH HPC         
 GUIDANCE. LIKE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BUT WILL GO MORE CONSERVATIVE ON QPF        
 WITH ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM.                                     
 RATHER QUICK DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUE NIGHT WITH RATHER DRY            
 LOOK TO PATTERN INTO THU NIGHT...BUT STILL COLD WITH TEMPS WELL                
 BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO               
 ACCOUNT FOR NEXT SYSTEM LATER FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NE PART OF CWA.           
 ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS OVER UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY WEEKEND.          
 BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF REGION             
 AND PUTS WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.                
 WILL LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE -SN FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A                 
 WARMING TREND FOLLOWING.                                                       
 AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 15Z. AFTER 15Z EXPECT                   
 CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K-5K FEET AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 4-6 MILES IN             
 LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.                
 MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ051-052-                    
 058>060-064>066-070>072.                                                       
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ051-052-                    
 058>060-064>066-070>072.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ZAJDEL                                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                           
 200 AM MST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND                   
 CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND ITS TYPE.                                         
 THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION EFFORTS.                        
 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)                                           
 TODAY/TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE INTO THE                   
 NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT               
 TO BACK IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. DIFFICULT                     
 TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER                
 STILL COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST                
 LITTLE TO NO WARMING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE                 
 HILL CITY AREA WHERE ABOUT 5F OF WARMING IS FORECAST. FURTHER                  
 SOUTH OVER THE TRIBUNE AREA PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES IS POSSIBLE.                 
 WITH THAT IN MIND WILL COPY AND PASTE YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES             
 INTO TODAYS AND TWEAK A BIT GIVEN FAIRLY NEUTRAL WARMING ALOFT.                
 STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL                  
 MOISTEN UP TONIGHT WITH THE GFS STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN                
 THE NAM. COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE TWO AT 09Z-12Z SHOWS SUFFICIENT              
 MOISTENING IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM EAST               
 TO WEST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE PER SOUNDINGS AND              
 PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS FROM THE RUC/GFS/NAM.                                   
 WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A              
 RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE -10C LEVEL WITH BETTER/DEEPER BOUNDARY AND             
 850-700 MOISTURE FAVORING AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN                
 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA. BETTER LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS KIND              
 OF FAVOR THAT SAME AREA DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU FAVOR. WONT                
 STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AREAL COVERAGE OF A BIT MORE             
 WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT I DID EXPAND IT A BIT FURTHER WEST             
 COVERING MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR                    
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM               
 THE WEST HELPING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN ABOVE THE ALREADY                      
 SATURATED LOWER LAYERS. KEPT THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING                 
 OVER THE AREA AND ADDED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2             
 OF THE AREA WHERE THE INCREASING SATURATION ALOFT MAY HELP TO TRY              
 AND CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                              
 TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY WITH AN EXPECTED             
 LOW OVERCAST. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 25F FROM MONDAYS                     
 READINGS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEENS FOR HIGHS EXCEPT MID 20S IN THE             
 HILL CITY AREA. BLENDING THE MODIFIED AND UNMODIFIED 850                       
 TEMPERATURES PLUS THE MOS/2M GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS READINGS              
 IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS.                                               
 THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS OVERALL                 
 MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. FOR                      
 THURSDAY NIGHT WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NEARLY             
 ALL BUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS GFS MID LEVELS SATURATE                        
 SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SNOW. WILL KEEP LOW               
 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/3 WHERE FROTOGENESIS AND JET                
 DIVERGENCE FAVOR A BIT HIGHER POP. IF THE NAM WAS TO VERIFY THIS               
 WILL LIKELY BE OVERDONE AS ITS MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.                        
 850 TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO AND GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE                  
 CLOUDINESS DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAYS FORECAST                    
 NUMBERS.                                                                       
 .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-MONDAY)                                                   
 NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 CO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DDT                                                                            
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 416 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 ...LOW WIND CHILLS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...                                 
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE WIND CHILL AND              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.                                          
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING OVER             
 EASTERN CANADA AND A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES NORTHWEST INTO             
 WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONE STRETCHED OUT SHORTWAVE IS SWEEPING              
 THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND IS OVER THE FORECAST               
 AREA. ANOTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE ANALYSES                  
 DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AN EXTENSIVE              
 RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTH                 
 THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MANITOBA. A LOW IS             
 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT DRAPED INTO                
 EASTERN KANSAS AND STATIONARY EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO BRITISH                 
 COLUMBIA. A COLD POCKET OF -25C 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE OVER UPPER              
 MICHIGAN AND WESTERN ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE OVER             
 MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                         
 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SWEEP EAST INTO EASTERN              
 ONTARIO TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE              
 SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND             
 WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY               
 LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW WILL RACE INTO SOUTHERN               
 ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED AGAIN           
 MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. DELTA-T`S OF 25C TO 28C CONTINUE OVER            
 LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH MEANS VERY UNSTABLE AT THE LOW LEVELS. A                   
 LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS LOOKING FOR                    
 LES TO CONTINUE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES. THIS             
 MORNING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN           
 LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE AFTERNOON THE EASTERN U.P. WILL EXPERIENCE            
 THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE. MODELS CALL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER EASTERN            
 LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND HEAVIEST SNOW FALL OVER IN THE AREA OF                 
 STRONGEST CONVERGENCE EAST OF MUNISING. PLAN TO EXTEND THE WARNING             
 UNTIL 5 PM. COMPUTED THE WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THAT ALL             
 EXCEPT THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARE APT TO REACH THE ADVISORY CRITERIA             
 EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...THE SLIGHT WARMING WILL REDUCE             
 THE WIND CHILLS. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE            
 OVER ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER...WILL BE                
 FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. MODELS SHOWING STRONG 925MB               
 CONVERGENCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING SO WILL           
 KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...BUT DROP THE                  
 ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON AS THE WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AND THE           
 SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS ONLY A LIGHT FINE SNOW GOING ON                        
 THERE...HOWEVER...WILL ADD THEM TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAINLY              
 FOR AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH EXPOSED AREAS.                            
 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE               
 WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL U.P. SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL                
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST           
 AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH DELTA-T`S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HINT AT MIXING             
 SOME THE THESE HIGHER WINDS TO SURFACE OVER THE LAKE. THIS IN TURN             
 WILL AFFECT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KEWEENAW                
 PENINSULA AND OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE. LAKE SHORE                    
 CONVERGENCE IS ALSO INDICATED. MEAN SURFACE-850MB RH WILL BE 75 TO             
 80 PERCENT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GENERALLY 65 TO 75                 
 PERCENT WEST LAKE AND NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND AROUND 60 OVER             
 THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER SUPPORTS THE AREAS              
 MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE SNOW AS WELL.                                       
 THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS ANOTHER DEVELOPS               
 OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE            
 SURFACE RIDGE. OVER THE LAND THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE               
 WEST AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWEST                   
 PRODUCING MORE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. AN 850MB -26C WILL            
 STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS UPPER                    
 MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.              
 THUS IT BEST TO KEEP LES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.                          
 THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN UPPER           
 MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE            
 NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE THERMAL           
 TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD...HOWEVER...THE DELTA-T`S ARE STILL                  
 EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. PLAN TO KEEP LES GOING           
 AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE                 
 DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA AND WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE            
 OF THE LONGWAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA. WAS THINKING ABOUT PUSHING UP             
 THE POPS OVER THE AREA. GFS KEEPING MOST OF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE           
 FAR EAST...WHILE NAM PLACES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE WHOLE              
 U.P. FOR NOW WILL STAY MORE WITH THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST               
 CONSISTENT AND WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF SNOW A BIT...BUT LEAVE THE              
 POPS ALONE.                                                                    
 THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL               
 ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS IT IS               
 CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. LOW LEVEL                 
 CONVERGENCE WILL CHANGE LITTLE. SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE ANYTHING            
 ON THURSDAY.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST TODAY MIZ006-007-085.                      
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS                 
 EVENING MIZ001-003.                                                            
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY MIZ002-004-005-009>014-084.           
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DLG                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                          
 335 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 AREA RADAR RETURNS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW              
 DEVELOPING OVER SRN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK                
 ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 280K-295K LAYERS. HOWEVER...THESE                  
 RETURNS ARE INITIALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SFC AS              
 THEY FIGHT THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW                
 LEVELS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER SRN IOWA AND            
 NRN MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LOW LAYERS WILL EVENTUALLY             
 SATURATE ALLOWING MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF SNOW REACHING THE SFC.            
 BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW THE BEST AXIS OF LIFT QUICKLY                    
 TRANSLATING EAST OF THE AREA INTO ERN IOWA AND WRN ILLINOIS BY THE             
 MID MORNING HOURS LEADING TO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NRN             
 MISSOURI. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS...IT APPEARS             
 AREAS ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES WITH IOWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE           
 TO PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS EVENT.                 
 MEANWHILE...THE SOURCE REGION OF MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE                
 SHALLOW COLD DOME IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN CNTRL KANSAS WITH                    
 TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER              
 20S. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF RUN AT THE SRN PORTION OF           
 THE CWA SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO LIFT NORTH FROM SRN              
 MISSOURI...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS                     
 AFTERNOON. PROBLEMS LIE WITH TRYING TO DISPLACE SUCH A DOMINANT                
 SHALLOW COLD LAYER THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY SEE                
 QUITE A TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE                 
 HEDGED WITH A POSITIONING CLOSER TO THE FURTHEST SOUTH                         
 NAM-WRF....LIMITING THE BEST WARMING TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST           
 CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.                          
 AS THE UPPER WAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO            
 THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE            
 AGAIN SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD              
 AIR TO INVADE THE REGION. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW            
 PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED...KEEPING THE TRAJECTORY OF THE              
 COLDEST CORE OF THE AIRMASS (CURRENTLY -30F TO -40F ACROSS CNTRL AND           
 NRN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN) AIMED MORE TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST            
 AND GREAT LAKES. HENCE...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F           
 BELOW AVERAGE VERSUS 15F TO 20F BELOW AVERAGE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.            
 WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME TIME PERIOD BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK               
 WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AS VORTICITY LOBES BECOMES CHANNELED IN            
 CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THURSDAY              
 NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPORADIC FLURRY AT              
 OTHER TIMES GIVEN THE CHARACTER OF THIS WINTER AIRMASS.                        
 NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER A BRIEF                
 GLANCE AT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING THE           
 POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY NEXT             
 WEEK SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS TAKEN               
 LITERALLY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WOULD LIE OVER CENTRAL AND SRN                   
 MISSOURI...HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW.               
 21                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                        
 /900 PM CST MON FEB 5 2007/                                                    
 CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND            
 EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE           
 OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER WITH PROFILERS INDICATING LITTLE IN THE             
 WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.           
 LATEST NAM/WRF AND RUC SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP               
 ACROSS THE CWA ON THE 275-295K SURFACES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE                
 GREATEST SATURATION IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND            
 NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK.  HAVE BOOSTED POPS A LITTLE NEAR THE           
 IOWA BORDER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS              
 STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN                  
 PORTION OF THE CWA...NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE.                                      
 ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE.              
 NO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NOTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST DESPITE WEAK                     
 ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM H9 AND LOWER. DRY EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE              
 BOUNDARY WAS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY WITH THE LATEST              
 RUC AND NAM/WRF ONLY SUGGESTING A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER...BELOW             
 900 MB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN ONE           
 HALF OF THE CWA. THE MOIST LAYER LOOKS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE                  
 DRIZZLE. IT IS NOT EVEN A GIVEN THAT LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOPMENT.             
 OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK ON TARGET.                               
 DB                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                        
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...                                              
 BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOWER           
 MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF RELINQUISHING ITS GRIP             
 AS WE LOOK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES                 
 REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER NE MO              
 THIS AFTERNOON...READINGS HAD REACHED THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE KS/MO            
 BORDER...AND WERE WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.              
 21Z SURFACE MAP INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT BECOMING INCREASINGLY             
 WELL DEFINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD...                   
 STRETCHING JUST SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS KANSAS...THEN ARCING SOUTHEAST            
 ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS.                                                    
 OVERALL PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH MAINTAINING THE BOUNDARY                  
 POSITION ROUGHLY IN-SITU AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE               
 RIDES ALONG IT TOMORROW BEFORE GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE.             
 FOR TONIGHT...STEADY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL           
 ENCOUNTER AREAS OF SNOW MELT OVER SE KS/SW MO. THIS..COMBINED WITH             
 WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF               
 FOG...STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF           
 THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BASICALLY CARRIED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
 FROM EARLIER. FURTHER NORTH...MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO            
 SEED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN MO WITH NO ACCUMULATION                
 EXPECTED.                                                                      
 ON TUESDAY...LARGER SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE             
 UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER CHANNELED DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES THROUGH              
 THE INTENSE MID LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS FAR NE MO.            
 WARM ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP SHARPEN THE MID LEVEL                
 FRONTAL ZONE OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ANOTHER              
 AREA OF BANDED SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.                 
 EXPECT THAT AREAS AFFECTED WILL BE GENERALLY THE SAME AS TODAY...BUT           
 WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING PRESENT...COULD SEE SOME MINOR                
 ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NE MO. RIGHT NOW HAVE MAINTAINED UP TO AN               
 INCH OVER THESE AREAS.                                                         
 FURTHER SOUTHWEST ITS A WHOLE DIFFERENT BALLGAME AS A SHARP                    
 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY MEAN A 15-20F THERMAL GRADIENT BISECTING           
 THE CWA SOMEWHERE. THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS           
 WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAX TEMPS HAVE             
 BEEN WELL COLLABORATED AMONG SURROUNDING WFOS...BUT THE COMPLEXITY             
 OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE                   
 CRITICAL. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS OVER FAR NE            
 MO...TO THE MID 40S IN BUTLER AND PAOLA. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS             
 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER WILL END UP ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE            
 EXPECTATION AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND W/SW SURFACE WINDS.           
 BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...               
 ALTHOUGH THE ARCTIC SURGE UPSTREAM IS SLOWER AND COLD ADVECTION IS             
 LAGGING A BIT. WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE             
 IOWA BORDER TO THE LOWER 20S IN CENTRAL MO...REBOUNDING ONLY BACK              
 INTO THE 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.                 
 BOOKBINDER                                                                     
 LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...                                                 
 THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN             
 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POLAR VORTEX KEEPING A            
 HOLD OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND            
 THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE VORTEX...DROPPING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AT            
 THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EVENTUALLY THESE SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL             
 HELP DRAG THE POLAR VORTEX SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THAT             
 TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COLD               
 AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING           
 SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...CAN`T RULE OUT A                 
 PERIOD OR TWO OF FLURRIES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT.              
 TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW             
 PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.             
 STOFLET                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 WFO EAX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 314 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 MAIN CHALLENGE IS EARLY ON WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH AND TIMING ITS             
 ENDING AND AMOUNTS. UTILIZED RUC FOR ENDING OF SNOW IN THE                     
 GRIDDS...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN              
 USED GFS FOR DAYS 2 AND BEYOND. YESTERDAYS MODELS DID A GOOD JOB               
 IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM.                                                       
 SFC LOW AT 09Z LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MT...WEST OF WILLISTON...WITH              
 MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST. VORT MAX IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASK AND MOVING                  
 SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SE ND THIS MORNING AND EXITING               
 THE AREA AROUND 15Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOST OF THE SNOW IS IN THE             
 850-700 MB MID LEVEL WARM ADV AND FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BAND                  
 WHICH IS NOW FROM MINOT TO FARGO AREA. ALSO GOOD LIFT SUPPORTED BY             
 120 KT 300 MB JET IN CNTRL/ERN ND. AREA OF -SN ON AREA RADARS                  
 MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH MAIN SNOW (2-3 INCH) FROM NEAR MINOT OR JUST             
 EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO COOOPERSTOWN-VALLEY CITY-FORMAN                     
 AREAS...WITH EASTERN EDGE NR A CAVALIER-GRAND FORKS-DETROIT LAKES-             
 WADENA LINE. EXTENSIVE COORD WAS DONE THIS MORNING TO UP POPS TO               
 CATEGORICAL FOR THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD IN SOUTHEAST ND AND                     
 ADJACENT WCNTRL MN THEN EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND END BY                    
 MIDDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT ADVISORY...BUT CALLS BY WFO BIS IN THEIR                 
 AREA INDICATE 1-2 INCH SO FAR IN HEAVIEST BAND AND THE HEAVIEST                
 BANDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND NOT REALLY STAYING OVER THE SAME                
 AREA. THUS DECIDED TO WITH TOTALS OF NR 3 INCHES IN MAIN BAND WITH             
 1-2 DVL-FAR WITH UNDER AN INCH GFK-DTL TO NOTHING EAST OF HCO-TVF-             
 PKD. ONCE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK             
 INTO THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA INTO NW              
 ONTARIO WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTN AND                 
 SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED             
 NIGHT. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS OVER THE WEEKEND...DID               
 LOWER SOME LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.               
 .LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY                   
 WEEKEND...THEN PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND COLD               
 POLAR LOW LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NRN QUEBEC.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RIDDLE/                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 359 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF SNOW-BAND THIS                   
 MORNING...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS FROM SAID SNOW-BAND.                          
 THEN...CONCERNS TURN TO PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY             
 AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SC CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.               
 PRESENTLY...WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WIGGLING BACK TOWARD THE              
 EAST AND ACTING LIKE A WARM FRONT...IMPRESSIVE WAA SNOW-BAND WHICH             
 HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS MARCHING ACROSS THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. NW FLOW UPPER WAVE WITH SUPPORT FROM 100-KNOT                   
 NORTHERN STREAM JET MAX HAS MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SETTING               
 UP ABOVE IMPRESSIVE 850HPA TO 700HPA 2D-FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.                 
 WOULD GO WITH SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS IF THE SNOW-BAND WAS                       
 STATIONARY. HOWEVER...IT IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT A PRETTY                
 GOOD CLIP...SO WAS COMFORTABLE SHIFTING CATEGORICAL POPS FROM                  
 CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER TO JUST THE FAR              
 EASTERN ZONES /MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HECLA TO CLARK             
 SOUTH DAKOTA/ WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUM 1 TO 3 INCH WORDING. LATEST                
 RUC SOLUTION POINTS TO THE BEST FORCING/LIFT DEPARTING THE FAR                 
 EASTERN FORECAST AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...SO ONLY CARRYING               
 THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TODAY                      
 PERIOD...BEFORE TAPERING FORECAST OFF TO FLURRIES IN CAA.                      
 ONCE THE UPPER WAVE SWEEPS PAST THIS CWFA THIS MORNING...SNOWFALL              
 SHOULD WANE SIGNIFICANTLY. LOW LEVEL CAA /SFC TO 925HPA/ BEHIND                
 THIS WAVE PUSHES BACK SOUTH AGAIN AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WIGGLES               
 BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE INSERTED SCATTERED                  
 FLURRIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO COVER ANY CAA SNOW SHOWERS                  
 UNTIL LOW/MID CLOUDS SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SC CENTRAL SODAK THIS               
 EVENING.                                                                       
 REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED...WITH MODELS                
 CONTINUING TO SHOWCASE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL IN WEAK TO MODERATE                
 FORCING/LIFT COMBINATION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA              
 WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO               
 SUPPORT GOING FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH                    
 THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                
 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                             
 THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE              
 PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE US AND                   
 CANADA WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF                
 THE WESTERN COAST...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND CANADA             
 WITH THE LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN AND US TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY                 
 STEADY. OUR REGION REMAINS IN THE CONFLUECNE AREA BETWEEN THE                  
 NORTHERN STREAM FROM CANADA BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE                    
 WESTERN STREAM FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OUR            
 AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG              
 TERM AS AIRMASSES FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL. AT THE                          
 SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE              
 REGION. ON FRIDAY...A CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE                  
 SITUATED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE                  
 UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST               
 FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST ON                  
 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT DO MUCH TO WARM IT UP               
 DESPITE SOME WARMER THICKNESSES. THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT WAVES                 
 COMING OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO               
 THE WESTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT...WILL GO DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING                
 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO WATERTOWN AND ABERDEEN                 
 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 14Z.                  
 VSBYS IN SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE AT                    
 ABERDEEN AND WATERTOWN THROUGH 12Z WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT              
 TIMES. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z WITH VSBYS             
 RISING ABOVE 6 MILES. MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE WILL HAVE VFR CEILINGS               
 THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH                
 THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DORN                                                              
 LONG TERM...MOHR                                                               
 AVIATION...MOHR                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 405 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS SNOW POTENTIAL WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM                
 TODAY...THEN TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                
 00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR              
 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST AND                   
 TROFFING IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX CENTERED A COUPLE            
 HUNDRED MILES EAST OF HUDSON BAY. 850MB PLOTS INDICATING A WAA                 
 REGIME ONGOING OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING A               
 GENERAL 2-5C INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.               
 MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 1035MB SFC HIGH PARKED OVER WI/IL...WITH             
 DECENT 3HR SFC PRES FALLS AROUND 5MB OCCURRING OVER DAKOTAS                    
 ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CLIPPER SYSTEM. GOES PW PLOT SHOWING AN             
 AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO SRN MONTANA /PW           
 AROUND 0.5"/ ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE VERY SCANT IN OUR               
 NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH VALUES AOB 0.1".                                      
 TODAY...INITIAL CONCERN IS TEMPS AND WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING.           
 SFC HIGH DRIFTING OVERHEAD ALLOWED WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN WRN                    
 COUNTIES...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. FURTHER         
 EAST...SFC GRADIENT A BIT TIGHTER WHICH IS PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 10           
 MPH AT TIMES...WITH RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING AOB -20F.             
 THUS...WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM.  OTHER                 
 CONCERN FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL           
 ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD                  
 THROUGH THE REGION. GFS/WRF/RUC IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING           
 A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM 15-21Z. DECENT MID LEVEL /H7-H3/                
 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOTED...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF FRONTOGENETICAL            
 FORCING. MOISTURE LACKING...AS MODELS INDICATING PRECIP WATER ONLY             
 AROUND 0.20"...WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 1-1.5 G/KG. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF           
 PLACES HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN FAR SWRN COUNTIES...WITH 0.1"-0.15" LIQUID          
 EQUIVALENT. WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY RANGE          
 FROM 20-25:1...WHICH COULD YIELD A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW                 
 BASICALLY WEST OF LINE FROM KENOSHA...TO MADISON...TO WISCONSIN                
 DELLS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS...BASICALLY AND INCH OR LESS EXPECTED                   
 ELSEWHERE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO              
 HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES ATTM...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT             
 SNOW THREAT.                                                                   
 TONIGHT...CLIPPER TO SLIDE QUICKLY SEWD...WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW ENDING           
 BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA AS FLOW               
 BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN.                                              
 WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY                
 BUILDING SFC HIGH BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES                
 STATES...AS POLAR VORTEX CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF               
 HUDSON BAY.  WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AOB 0.1" EXPECT DRY BUT COLD             
 CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.                                                    
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AS GFS/ECMWF/UKMET              
 AGREE ON KEEPING GREAT LAKES REGION IN A COLD NWLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS             
 ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH AREA ON FRIDAY...SO WILL               
 KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW THEN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF           
 DRY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING                
 RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.  EXPECT STRONGEST SYNOPTIC              
 SCALE FORCING AS WELL AS MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH           
 COMPACT SHORT WAVE TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF KMSN.  WL BRING IN              
 MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO KMSN MID               
 MRNG WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR                   
 EVENING.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ051-052-               
 058>060-064>066-070>072.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MAF/MBK                                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 702 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 LATEST MODEL RUNS PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE TO THE RUNS EARLIER IN               
 THE NIGHT. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING                 
 INDICATES MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MI MOSTLY CLEAR...THOUGH A PESKY LOW               
 CLOUD LAYER IS DETECTED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS FOG                 
 PRODUCT IN WASHTENAW COUNTY AREA ASTRIDE I 94 WHERE RESIDUE OF LOW             
 LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL PERSISTS. LATEST RUC DEPICTS THIS FAIRLY               
 WELL FOR 11Z.                                                                  
 LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE                        
 SNOW/FORCING WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.         
 PARTICULARLY THE 06Z NAM...HOWEVER...PLAYS UP LOW LEVEL WIND                   
 CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENING IN THE I 94 TO M 59 AREAS THIS AFTERNOON             
 THEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THIS EVENING CENTERED ALONG                  
 M 59. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BEST SNOWFALL...THOUGH                       
 GENERALLY STILL LIGHT...BETWEEN TAF SITES. 12Z TAFS SHOW MOSTLY                
 MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...HELPED BY DIURNAL EFFECTS...THEN                    
 SCATTERING OUT BY MIDNIGHT IN GROWING SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING                 
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SNOW                  
 SHOWERS...THIS AFTERNOON.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007                            
 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
 500 MB FEATURES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING                    
 SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE           
 GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THOUGH             
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS/LOCAL WRFHEMI             
 OVER THE NAM AND NGM. AT THE SURFACE...A LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT           
 TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE INTO                   
 SOUTHEAST MI.                                                                  
 DEEPER MOISTURE...AS AT 850 TO 500 MB...INCREASING ESPECIALLY FAR              
 SOUTH LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT BEST MOISTURE STAYS SOUTH OF MI.           
 DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN LESSENING LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE                  
 TROUGH. LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS GENERALLY FAIRLY GOOD.             
 SLIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT CLIPPING THE               
 AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE MORE                
 ROBUST ASCENT STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR            
 CONVERGENCE WEAK AT BEST...AGAIN MORE ROBUST SOUTH OF MI...AS IS               
 TRUE OF 250 MB DIVERGENCE. 270K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALSO MAINLY SOUTH            
 OF AREA...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW 30 MB CONFINED             
 TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                                                  
 LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCES NOT GOING AWAY...HOWEVER. NAM AND TO AN                 
 EXTENT GFS SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE/OMEGA MAINLY IN I94 TO M59          
 CORRIDOR WEAKENING THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AGAIN           
 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO...THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW           
 EXISTS THROUGHOUT...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.                              
 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST AS TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AROUND            
 THE POLAR VORTEX REMAIN A CHALLENGE.  IT WILL REMAIN RATHER                    
 COLD...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MODERATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS           
 AND HIGHS EVENTUALLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S.  THE IMPRESSIVE              
 WEST COAST RIDGE SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND AS             
 STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE LEADING TO A BROAD CENTRAL           
 CONUS TROUGH AND A TRANSITION TO A NEAR ZONAL FLOW. NORMAL HIGHS               
 TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 35                
 DEGREES.                                                                       
 THE QUESTION THAT REALLY REMAINS WILL BE TIMING OF THOSE SHORT WAVES           
 AND CORRESPONDING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A           
 RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND THE               
 PERIPHERY OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.  THIS FEATURE              
 BECAME APPARENT IN THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS AND TRACING ITS                      
 TRACKS...THE WAVE ORIGINATES FROM WESTERN LABRADOR SEA.  LATEST                
 WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SUGGEST A RATHER STRONG WAVE NEAR 51.0N AND              
 47.5W.  THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THIS WAVE              
 VERIFYING AT 06Z AND BY THE FORECAST TIME IN QUESTION...THIS WAVE              
 BECOMES RATHER STRUNG OUT WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS TRACK               
 FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.  ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GFS SHOW                
 LITTLE SUPPORT TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT WITH ONLY A FEW MEMBERS.             
 IN FACT...STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT              
 ARE RATHER HIGH SUPPORTING THE LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.  THE            
 END RESULT WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AND              
 SNOW SHOWERS (INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT) INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...                                                                  
      GALE WARNING...NORTH HALF...UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.                           
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ441-LHZ442...UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.               
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...DWD                                                                 
 SHORT TERM...DWD                                                               
 LONG TERM....BGM                                                               
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                 
 942 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS.                                             
 EXPECTING FALLING TEMPS TODAY WITH CAA IN FULL FORCE IN THE NORTH.             
 LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.                 
 NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS MORE IN SNOWFALL                       
 ACCUMULATION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND HAVE                    
 TWEAKED GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 MAIN CHALLENGE IS EARLY ON WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH AND TIMING ITS             
 ENDING AND AMOUNTS. UTILIZED RUC FOR ENDING OF SNOW IN THE                     
 GRIDDS...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN              
 USED GFS FOR DAYS 2 AND BEYOND. YESTERDAYS MODELS DID A GOOD JOB               
 IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM.                                                       
 SFC LOW AT 09Z LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MT...WEST OF WILLISTON...WITH              
 MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST. VORT MAX IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASK AND MOVING                  
 SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SE ND THIS MORNING AND EXITING               
 THE AREA AROUND 15Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOST OF THE SNOW IS IN THE             
 850-700 MB MID LEVEL WARM ADV AND FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BAND                  
 WHICH IS NOW FROM MINOT TO FARGO AREA. ALSO GOOD LIFT SUPPORTED BY             
 120 KT 300 MB JET IN CNTRL/ERN ND. AREA OF -SN ON AREA RADARS                  
 MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH MAIN SNOW (2-3 INCH) FROM NEAR MINOT OR JUST             
 EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO COOOPERSTOWN-VALLEY CITY-FORMAN                     
 AREAS...WITH EASTERN EDGE NR A CAVALIER-GRAND FORKS-DETROIT LAKES-             
 WADENA LINE. EXTENSIVE COORD WAS DONE THIS MORNING TO UP POPS TO               
 CATEGORICAL FOR THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD IN SOUTHEAST ND AND                     
 ADJACENT WCNTRL MN THEN EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND END BY                    
 MIDDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT ADVISORY...BUT CALLS BY WFO BIS IN THEIR                 
 AREA INDICATE 1-2 INCH SO FAR IN HEAVIEST BAND AND THE HEAVIEST                
 BANDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND NOT REALLY STAYING OVER THE SAME                
 AREA. THUS DECIDED TO WITH TOTALS OF NR 3 INCHES IN MAIN BAND WITH             
 1-2 DVL-FAR WITH UNDER AN INCH GFK-DTL TO NOTHING EAST OF HCO-TVF-             
 PKD. ONCE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK             
 INTO THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA INTO NW              
 ONTARIO WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTN AND                 
 SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED             
 NIGHT. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS OVER THE WEEKEND...DID               
 LOWER SOME LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.               
 LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY                    
 WEEKEND...THEN PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND COLD               
 POLAR LOW LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NRN QUEBEC.                              
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 FOR 12Z TAF TIMING ENDING OF SNOW WAS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR...WORST           
 OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER IN GFK BEFORE 14Z...THEN CLEARING SHOULD              
 MOVE IN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY 20Z.  FARGO WILL SEE SNOW              
 LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER...WHILE BEMIDJI WILL STAY JUST EAST OF            
 SNOW AND VFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON.                               
 FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JC                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 555 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION                                                   
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 MAIN CHALLENGE IS EARLY ON WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH AND TIMING ITS             
 ENDING AND AMOUNTS. UTILIZED RUC FOR ENDING OF SNOW IN THE                     
 GRIDDS...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN              
 USED GFS FOR DAYS 2 AND BEYOND. YESTERDAYS MODELS DID A GOOD JOB               
 IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM.                                                       
 SFC LOW AT 09Z LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MT...WEST OF WILLISTON...WITH              
 MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST. VORT MAX IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASK AND MOVING                  
 SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SE ND THIS MORNING AND EXITING               
 THE AREA AROUND 15Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOST OF THE SNOW IS IN THE             
 850-700 MB MID LEVEL WARM ADV AND FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING BAND                  
 WHICH IS NOW FROM MINOT TO FARGO AREA. ALSO GOOD LIFT SUPPORTED BY             
 120 KT 300 MB JET IN CNTRL/ERN ND. AREA OF -SN ON AREA RADARS                  
 MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH MAIN SNOW (2-3 INCH) FROM NEAR MINOT OR JUST             
 EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO COOOPERSTOWN-VALLEY CITY-FORMAN                     
 AREAS...WITH EASTERN EDGE NR A CAVALIER-GRAND FORKS-DETROIT LAKES-             
 WADENA LINE. EXTENSIVE COORD WAS DONE THIS MORNING TO UP POPS TO               
 CATEGORICAL FOR THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD IN SOUTHEAST ND AND                     
 ADJACENT WCNTRL MN THEN EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND END BY                    
 MIDDAY. THOUGHT ABOUT ADVISORY...BUT CALLS BY WFO BIS IN THEIR                 
 AREA INDICATE 1-2 INCH SO FAR IN HEAVIEST BAND AND THE HEAVIEST                
 BANDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND NOT REALLY STAYING OVER THE SAME                
 AREA. THUS DECIDED TO WITH TOTALS OF NR 3 INCHES IN MAIN BAND WITH             
 1-2 DVL-FAR WITH UNDER AN INCH GFK-DTL TO NOTHING EAST OF HCO-TVF-             
 PKD. ONCE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK             
 INTO THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES LOCATED OVER CNTRL MANITOBA INTO NW              
 ONTARIO WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTN AND                 
 SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED             
 NIGHT. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS OVER THE WEEKEND...DID               
 LOWER SOME LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.               
 .LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY                   
 WEEKEND...THEN PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND COLD               
 POLAR LOW LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NRN QUEBEC.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR 12Z TAF TIMING ENDING OF SNOW WAS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR...WORST           
 OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER IN GFK BEFORE 14Z...THEN CLEARING SHOULD              
 MOVE IN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY 20Z.  FARGO WILL SEE SNOW              
 LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER...WHILE BEMIDJI WILL STAY JUST EAST OF            
 SNOW AND VFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 RIDDLE/                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA            
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                        
 925 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE REAL ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS MOVD WELL EAST OF AREA THIS MRNG.               
 BUT LOW LVL COLD AIR SQUEEZE AND SATURATION BLO 800 MB STILL                   
 PRODUCING AREAS OF LGT SNW/FLURRIES NERN HLF CWA THRU AT LEAST EARLY           
 AFTN WITH UP TO A HALF INCH NUISANCE FLUFF PSBL. COLD AIR BACKING IN           
 BEHIND CLIPPER THIS AFTN WITH GOOD PRESRISES INTO DKTS...SO TEMPS              
 MIGHT NOT GO ANYWHERE NORTH OF I90...AND MAY HAVE TO CUT HIGHS BACK            
 THIS AFTN.                                                                     
 RSR                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AREA OF SNOW PRESENTLY FALLING OVER THE              
 NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IS COLLOCATED WELL WITH 750 MB                    
 FRONTOGENETICAL BAND POSITIONED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH              
 WESTERN IOWA.  ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE             
 SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO              
 TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z AS BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL              
 FORCING MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA.  CURRENTLY FORECASTED                           
 ACCUMULATIONS...IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF A              
 LINE ROUGHLY FROM BROOKINGS TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER...LOOKS                  
 REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.  AFTER THE SNOW EXITS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN            
 ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...LOOKS TO REMAIN A MOSTLY            
 CLOUDY DAY...THOUGH AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FA MAY            
 SEE SOME BREAKS LATER ON.                                                      
 CAA GETS UNDERWAY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE                    
 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AFFECTING OUR REGION PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN              
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COLDER NIGHT                 
 TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN           
 TODAY.  HAVE SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY             
 AS A LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA               
 THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY OVER           
 THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WITH IMPULSES RIDING ALONG FEATURE...HAVE              
 KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY ON              
 FRIDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE TRICKY...WITH             
 THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE             
 NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD BOTTOM OUT IF THE CLOUDS                
 CLEAR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 SD...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JM                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 753 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED EARLY THIS MORNING               
 WITH ONLY FLURRIES. ALSO...HAVE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING                 
 DRIZZLE IN NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. MADE SOME CHANGES TO              
 FORECAST.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF SNOW-BAND THIS                   
 MORNING...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS FROM SAID SNOW-BAND.                          
 THEN...CONCERNS TURN TO PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY             
 AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SC CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.               
 PRESENTLY...WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WIGGLING BACK TOWARD THE              
 EAST AND ACTING LIKE A WARM FRONT...IMPRESSIVE WAA SNOW-BAND WHICH             
 HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS MARCHING ACROSS THE                   
 FORECAST AREA. NW FLOW UPPER WAVE WITH SUPPORT FROM 100-KNOT                   
 NORTHERN STREAM JET MAX HAS MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SETTING               
 UP ABOVE IMPRESSIVE 850HPA TO 700HPA 2D-FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.                 
 WOULD GO WITH SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS IF THE SNOW-BAND WAS                       
 STATIONARY. HOWEVER...IT IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT A PRETTY                
 GOOD CLIP...SO WAS COMFORTABLE SHIFTING CATEGORICAL POPS FROM                  
 CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER TO JUST THE FAR              
 EASTERN ZONES /MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HECLA TO CLARK             
 SOUTH DAKOTA/ WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUM 1 TO 3 INCH WORDING. LATEST                
 RUC SOLUTION POINTS TO THE BEST FORCING/LIFT DEPARTING THE FAR                 
 EASTERN FORECAST AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...SO ONLY CARRYING               
 THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TODAY                      
 PERIOD...BEFORE TAPERING FORECAST OFF TO FLURRIES IN CAA.                      
 ONCE THE UPPER WAVE SWEEPS PAST THIS CWFA THIS MORNING...SNOWFALL              
 SHOULD WANE SIGNIFICANTLY. LOW LEVEL CAA /SFC TO 925HPA/ BEHIND                
 THIS WAVE PUSHES BACK SOUTH AGAIN AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WIGGLES               
 BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE INSERTED SCATTERED                  
 FLURRIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TO COVER ANY CAA SNOW SHOWERS                  
 UNTIL LOW/MID CLOUDS SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SC CENTRAL SODAK THIS               
 EVENING.                                                                       
 REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED...WITH MODELS                
 CONTINUING TO SHOWCASE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL IN WEAK TO MODERATE                
 FORCING/LIFT COMBINATION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA              
 WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO               
 SUPPORT GOING FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH                    
 THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                
 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                             
 THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE              
 PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE US AND                   
 CANADA WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF                
 THE WESTERN COAST...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND CANADA             
 WITH THE LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN AND US TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY                 
 STEADY. OUR REGION REMAINS IN THE CONFLUECNE AREA BETWEEN THE                  
 NORTHERN STREAM FROM CANADA BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE                    
 WESTERN STREAM FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OUR            
 AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG              
 TERM AS AIRMASSES FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL. AT THE                          
 SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE              
 REGION. ON FRIDAY...A CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE                  
 SITUATED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE                  
 UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST               
 FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST ON                  
 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT DO MUCH TO WARM IT UP               
 DESPITE SOME WARMER THICKNESSES. THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT WAVES                 
 COMING OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO               
 THE WESTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT...WILL GO DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING                
 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO WATERTOWN AND ABERDEEN                 
 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 14Z.                  
 VSBYS IN SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE AT                    
 ABERDEEN AND WATERTOWN THROUGH 12Z WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT              
 TIMES. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z WITH VSBYS             
 RISING ABOVE 6 MILES. MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE WILL HAVE VFR CEILINGS               
 THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH                
 THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...MOHR                                                                  
 SHORT TERM...DORN                                                              
 LONG TERM...MOHR                                                               
 AVIATION...MOHR                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA            
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                        
 400 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AREA OF SNOW PRESENTLY FALLING OVER THE              
 NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IS COLLOCATED WELL WITH 750 MB                    
 FRONTOGENETICAL BAND POSITIONED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH              
 WESTERN IOWA.  ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE             
 SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO              
 TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z AS BEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL              
 FORCING MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA.  CURRENTLY FORECASTED                           
 ACCUMULATIONS...IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF A              
 LINE ROUGHLY FROM BROOKINGS TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER...LOOKS                  
 REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.  AFTER THE SNOW EXITS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN            
 ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...LOOKS TO REMAIN A MOSTLY            
 CLOUDY DAY...THOUGH AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FA MAY            
 SEE SOME BREAKS LATER ON.                                                      
 CAA GETS UNDERWAY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE                    
 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AFFECTING OUR REGION PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN              
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COLDER NIGHT                 
 TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN           
 TODAY.  HAVE SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY             
 AS A LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA               
 THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY OVER           
 THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WITH IMPULSES RIDING ALONG FEATURE...HAVE              
 KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY ON              
 FRIDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE TRICKY...WITH             
 THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE             
 NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD BOTTOM OUT IF THE CLOUDS                
 CLEAR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 SD...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JM                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 1048 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAVE SHOWN HEAVIEST/MOST                   
 PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW IS LINED UP FROM SOUTHEASTERN MN TO NORTHERN           
 ILLINOIS AROUND KANKAKEE.  RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BAND IS JUST                
 NORTH OF AN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.               
 RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME SHALLOW STATIC INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE             
 THIS LAYER FROM AROUND 600-500MB... AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY NEARLY             
 DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE SAME LAYER ON BOTH KDVN AND KILX              
 12Z RAOBS... AND IS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH                  
 ZONE... WHICH IS RUNNING RATHER HIGH CONSIDERING THE COLD AIRMASS IN           
 PLACE.                                                                         
 SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF A                 
 IRK-SPI-CMI LINE.  12Z MODELS AND VARIOUS 00Z WRF-ARW RUNS WERE                
 KEYING IN ON THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE AS BEING THE PRIMARY FORCING               
 MECHANISM FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND... WHICH SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN              
 THE CASE.  HOWEVER... LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS SHOW MDT-HVY             
 SNOW HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE            
 NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  12Z RUC ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING                    
 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE SFC FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY                    
 AFTERNOON HOURS... AND SHOWS THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER DRIFTING              
 SOUTHWARD AS WELL.                                                             
 THIS ALL POINTS TOWARDS THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FALLING                   
 ALONG/ROUGHLY 30MI EITHER SIDE OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.  WILL CUT BACK            
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-72                    
 CORRIDOR... AND GO WITH LIGHT SNOW WORDING FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS               
 WELL.  ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE TOUGH TO MEET ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72...           
 AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST... AND PLAN TO REVISIT THIS               
 AROUND NOON.  FOR NOW... WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS-IS.                            
 WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED ZFP BY 1115 AM.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 6 2007/                                             
 FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL                
 AMOUNTS. 00Z MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM LAST MODEL RUN. GFS AND             
 NAM PRETTY REMAIN CLOSE WITH TIMING ALBERTA CLIPPER TODAY. THOUGH              
 NAM A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WITH HEAVIER QPF/SNOW            
 AXIS TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO HPC                   
 GUIDANCE TODAY WITH PUTS NEARLY 5 INCH SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74            
 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM JACKSONVILLE TO EFFINGHAM SW. FOLLOWED THE              
 COLDER MAV GUIDANCE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER TODAY.              
 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                   
 09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL           
 KY AND RIDGING INTO IL/WI. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR MT AND DAKOTAS            
 BORDER. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT             
 WAVE OVER ND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS ALONG AND SW OF I-74               
 WITH LOWER CLOUDS SW IL WHILE FAIR SKIES NE OF I-74. LIGHT SNOW OVER           
 WESTERN IOWA...WEST OF I-35. TEMPS RANGE FROM ZERO TO MINUS 4F NE OF           
 I-74 IN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WHILE 10 TO 16F IN CLOUDIER AREAS IN THE            
 SW.                                                                            
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD FORCING/OMEGA/LIFT INTO CENTRAL IL FROM           
 MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON AS ALBERTA CLIPPER RACES ACROSS                 
 NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO FOR A 6 TO 8              
 HOUR PERIOD TODAY PEAKING AROUND 18Z. AGREE WITH NWS INDY THAT 850             
 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY NE AREAS BY                    
 AFTERNOON AND SOME UPPER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. KEPT                      
 CATEGORICAL POPS RANGING FROM 80 PERCENT SW AND 100% NE TODAY AS               
 SNOW DEVELOPS FROM NW TO SE BY MID MORNING AND THEN DIMINISHES FROM            
 THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
 QPF RANGE FROM 0.10 INCH SW AND 0.25 INCHES NE AREAS. HIGH SNOW                
 RATIO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 TO 1 SUPPORTS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1             
 TO 3 INCHES FROM JACKSONVILLE TO EFFINGHAM TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW AND             
 NEAR 5 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. ISENTROPIC MIXING RATIOS OF             
 2 TO 4 G/KG IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. KEPT            
 SNOW ADVISORY GOING TODAY ACROSS ALL OF ILX CWFA THOUGH AREAS SW OF            
 JACKSONVILLE AND EFFINGHAM MAY BE BORDERLINE ESPECIALLY IF FURTHER             
 NE NAM VERIFIES. SHOULD BE A SHARP DROPOFF OF SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS             
 AS YOU GO SW OF OUR CWFA AREA TODAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHIFT EAST             
 INTO INDIANA THIS EVENING AND JUST HAVE SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW             
 AND FLURRIES THIS EVENING. MODELS TRENDING FASTER WITH PUSHING QPF             
 EAST THIS EVENING AND AGREE WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER.                          
 ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO IL FROM WESTERN                
 CANADA WED AND WED NIGHT TO KEEP IT QUITE COLD WITH LESS CLOUDS                
 NORTHERN AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS COULD SLIP BACK BELOW ZERO WED NIGHT            
 ESPECIALLY BY GALESBURG. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE            
 SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THU KEEPING ITS CLOUDS NE OF CENTRAL IL SO                
 PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL IL.                                        
 LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                          
 NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES            
 CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NE               
 ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS              
 ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTERNOON/FRI NIGHT AND COULD BRING MORE            
 CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO CENTRAL IL. ARCTIC HIGH THEN MOVES OVER IL              
 SAT NIGHT AND THAT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT. THEN TEMPS TO MODIFY SUN              
 THROUGH TUE.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.                       
 ZONES 27>31..36>38..40>57..61>63..66>68..71>73.                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...HARDIMAN                                                              
 SHORT/LONG TERM...HUETTL                                                       
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                           
 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO UP TEMPERATURES A BIT              
 BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. A WARM START TO THE DAY HAS ALLOWED                    
 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS IN             
 THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY...AND SEVERAL LOCAL                    
 OBSERVATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID 40S. ASSUMING THAT DIURNAL CURVE               
 WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO LEVEL OUT            
 DURING THE NEXT HOUR WITH AND ADDITIONAL 4-8 DEGREES WARMING ACROSS            
 THE CWA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND              
 CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND ITS TYPE.                                         
 THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION EFFORTS.                        
 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)                                           
 TODAY/TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE INTO THE                   
 NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT               
 TO BACK IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. DIFFICULT                     
 TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER                
 STILL COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST                
 LITTLE TO NO WARMING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE                 
 HILL CITY AREA WHERE ABOUT 5F OF WARMING IS FORECAST. FURTHER                  
 SOUTH OVER THE TRIBUNE AREA PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES IS POSSIBLE.                 
 WITH THAT IN MIND WILL COPY AND PASTE YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES             
 INTO TODAYS AND TWEAK A BIT GIVEN FAIRLY NEUTRAL WARMING ALOFT.                
 STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL                  
 MOISTEN UP TONIGHT WITH THE GFS STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN                
 THE NAM. COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE TWO AT 09Z-12Z SHOWS SUFFICIENT              
 MOISTENING IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM EAST               
 TO WEST. WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE PER SOUNDINGS AND              
 PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS FROM THE RUC/GFS/NAM.                                   
 WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A              
 RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE -10C LEVEL WITH BETTER/DEEPER BOUNDARY AND             
 850-700 MOISTURE FAVORING AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN                
 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA. BETTER LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS KIND              
 OF FAVOR THAT SAME AREA DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU FAVOR. WONT                
 STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AREAL COVERAGE OF A BIT MORE             
 WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT I DID EXPAND IT A BIT FURTHER WEST             
 COVERING MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR                    
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM               
 THE WEST HELPING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN ABOVE THE ALREADY                      
 SATURATED LOWER LAYERS. KEPT THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING                 
 OVER THE AREA AND ADDED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2             
 OF THE AREA WHERE THE INCREASING SATURATION ALOFT MAY HELP TO TRY              
 AND CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                              
 TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY WITH AN EXPECTED             
 LOW OVERCAST. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 25F FROM MONDAYS                     
 READINGS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEENS FOR HIGHS EXCEPT MID 20S IN THE             
 HILL CITY AREA. BLENDING THE MODIFIED AND UNMODIFIED 850                       
 TEMPERATURES PLUS THE MOS/2M GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS READINGS              
 IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS.                                               
 THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS OVERALL                 
 MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. FOR                      
 THURSDAY NIGHT WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NEARLY             
 ALL BUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS GFS MID LEVELS SATURATE                        
 SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SNOW. WILL KEEP LOW               
 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/3 WHERE FROTOGENESIS AND JET                
 DIVERGENCE FAVOR A BIT HIGHER POP. IF THE NAM WAS TO VERIFY THIS               
 WILL LIKELY BE OVERDONE AS ITS MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.                        
 850 TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO AND GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE                  
 CLOUDINESS DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAYS FORECAST                    
 NUMBERS.                                                                       
 .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-MONDAY)                                                   
 NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KS...NONE.                                                                     
 NE...NONE.                                                                     
 CO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JRM/DDT                                                                        
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 416 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                
 WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING ACRS ENTIRE FCST                 
 AREA THIS AFTN. MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING VSBYS UNDER 1SM. SPOTTER              
 REPORTS ALREADY INDCG 2-3 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACRS SE INDIANA AND SW             
 OHIO. WITH KILN RADAR INDCG IMPRESSIVE RETURNS 30+ DBZ ACRS SW                 
 OHIO AND EXTENDING NW BACK INTO CNTRL INDIANA...EXPECT HVY SNOW                
 WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT SVRL HOURS. TEMPS WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE             
 TEENS THIS AFTN.                                                               
 MAIN FCST FOCUS IS SNOW FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. PARAMETERS COMING              
 TOGETHER FOR A RATHER EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST                 
 AREA. CURRENT RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON S/WV...WHICH HAS                
 TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS. SWATH OF                
 HEAVIEST SNOW ACRS SRN 2/3 FCST AREA. MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS                 
 ALIGNS FROM CNTRL/SE INDIANA THRU MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AND INTO               
 SOUTH CNTRL OH/NE KY. QUICK LOOK AT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDCG THAT             
 BEST LIFT COINCIDES WITH MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER NEXT 3-5               
 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENABLE A CONTINUATION OF HVY SNOW WITH 1-2 INCH             
 PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATE WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AT 15/20-1 IN                
 THESE AREAS INTO THE EVNG. FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF                    
 I-70...LIFT NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE HIGHER             
 AT 25 TO 1. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...55-60 KT 850 JET JUST                  
 SOUTH OF FCST AREA AND 100 KT MID LVL JET ACRS REGION WILL ALSO                
 ALL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EVNG. HAVE                       
 MAINTAINED 100 POPS ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND KEPT TOTAL SNOWFALL                 
 AMTS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST. WILL CARRY 2-3 INCHES ACRS WEST                     
 CNTRL/CNTRL OH...3-6 INCHES FROM WHITEWATER VLY EAST THRU DAYTON               
 AND CHILLICOTHE...WITH 4-7 INCHES ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA. MAY SEE              
 SOME ISOLD HIGHER AMTS APPCHG 8 INCHES...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN A               
 THIN SWATH FROM SE INDIANA E/SE THRU NRN TRI STATE AND INTO SOUTH              
 CNTRL OH. TRAVEL/RUSH HOUR LIKELY TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT ACRS REGION        
 THRU THIS EVNG.                                                                
 EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA BY LATE               
 EVNG/MIDNIGHT...AND ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA SOMETIME BTWN 06-09Z.               
 WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES IN THEIR CURRENT FORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD                  
 SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WED WITH SKIES BECMG MSTLY SUNNY. SFC              
 HI PRES WILL THEN HOLD ACRS REGION INTO THURS AS ERN CONUS REMAINS             
 UNDER DEEP UPR LVL TROF. MODEL GUID THEN STARTING TO HINT AT                   
 ANOTHER CLIPPER DROPPING THRU OH VLY THURS NIGHT. THIS LOOKS MUCH              
 LESS POTENT THAN CURRENT CLIPPER MOVING THRU WITH LOWER AMTS OF                
 QPF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS FEATURE...SO WILL             
 JUST INTRODUCE A SCHC POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO               
 RIVER THURS NIGHT INTO ERLY FRI. AS MODEL GUID CONVERGES ON A SOLN             
 WITH REGARDS TO THIS CLIPPER...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE ACCORDINGLY.           
 TEMPS...HAVE ESSENTIALLY UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS THRU SHORT TERM AS                
 FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD ENSURE COLDER TEMPS. DROPPED TEMPS SVRL DEG              
 FROM PREV FCST ON WED NIGHT AS MSTLY CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS                   
 SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. MAY END UP              
 SEEING SUBZERO TEMPS AGAIN WED NIGHT. FCST WIND CHILL TO BTWN -5               
 AND -10 WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACRS NRN FCST AREA. WILL MONITOR AS               
 ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADV MAY BE NEEDED ACRS WEST CNTRL/CNTRL OH.                 
 A PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED BY              
 NWS ILN WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 PM.                                                
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED             
 PERIOD. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS           
 A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.                                     
 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DISTURBANCES IN THE H5 FLOW WILL PRODUCE A           
 BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
 AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  OBVIOUSLY...THERE            
 IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SOUTHERN LOW PUSHING INTO            
 THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTERY MIX AND/OR SNOW.          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 AVIATORS WILL ENCOUNTER SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST.               
 VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS LIFR. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON.              
 IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 05Z WHEN THE ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT IS              
 AFFECTING THE REGION PULLS EAST.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ060-061-070-           
      071-077-078.                                                              
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-                
      042>046-051>056-064-065-074.                                              
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ062-063-072-           
      073-079>082-088.                                                          
 KY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>096.               
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ097>100.               
 IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-           
      066-073>075-080.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1243 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 AVIATORS WILL ENCOUNTER SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST.               
 VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS LIFR. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON.              
 IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 05Z WHEN THE ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT IS              
 AFFECTING THE REGION PULLS EAST.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                
 RADAR AND OBS INDCG SNOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN FCST AREA             
 ATTM. GLANCE AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER INDIANA/ILLINOIS INDCG HEAVY                 
 SNOW IN A SWATH ACRS CNTRL ILLINOIS INTO CNTRL/SO CNTRL INDIANA.               
 SNOW IS ARRIVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN 12Z GFS/NAM INDCG...AND              
 ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN 12Z MODELS PROGGED. 15Z RUC AND SREF             
 INDCG HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW MAY END UP FALLING IN BROAD SWATH OVER            
 CINCY METRO FROM NRN KY COUNTIES NORTH INTO BUTLER/WARREN/CLINTON              
 CORRIDOR. HAVE EXPANDED HVY SNOW WARNING NORTH TO ENCOMPASS                    
 ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES...FROM DAYTON TO CHILLICOTHE. TEMPS                   
 REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 9 DEG INTO LWR TEENS ACRS MUCH OF THIS                    
 AREA...SO EVEN THOUGH HIGHEST QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF               
 HERE...COULD BE DEALING WITH 30 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THIS             
 AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE ALSO CHOSEN TO RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS               
 ACRS TRI STATE AREA AND INTO SOUTH CNTRL OH/NE KY WHERE 15 OR 20               
 TO 1 SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE REALIZED FOR DURATION OF EVENT.              
 NOW INDCG STORM TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES THRU THIS                        
 AREA...WITH OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AT ISOLD HIGHER AMTS APPCHG 8                  
 INCHES.                                                                        
 SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS               
 AFTN...WITH ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER               
 THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                            
 NEW WARNING PRODUCT AND ZONE FCST ALREADY OUT. PREV DISCUSSION                 
 FOLLOWS.                                                                       
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1040 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WITH SNOW ON THE WAY...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...NO FORECAST              
 UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SINCE WIND CHILLS HAVE RISEN ABOVE              
 -10...WILL CANCEL ADVISORY AND UPDATE ZONES TO DROP WIND CHILL                 
 HEADLINES.                                                                     
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 CLIPPER FEATURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO MID/UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY THIS               
 MORNING W/ WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OH VLY. -SN                
 CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN IL AND IS TIMED INTO WRN TAF SITES BETWEEN              
 15Z AND 18Z. BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OH RIVER SOUTH...SO HIT                
 CVG/LUK WITH LOWEST VSBYS AND CIGS. OBS UPSTREAM SHOW GENERALLY                
 IFR W/ OCCL LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...AND EXPECT SIMILAR                    
 CONDITIONS WHEN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO OH VLY. KCMH/KLCK MAY BE FAR               
 ENOUGH N TO AVOID HEAVIEST PRECIP SO DID NOT GO BELOW IFR VSBYS                
 OR CIGS THERE. BEST FORCING IS TIMED FOR 21Z- 02Z...WITH PRECIP                
 TAPERING OFF BY 06Z. MODELS SHOW LL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND                  
 PRECIP SO KEPT MVFR CIGS THRU 12Z.                                             
 HAWBLITZEL                                                                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
  /ISSUED 300 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
 GFS AND NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TRACK           
 OF CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS             
 SPED UP SOME AND IS NOW A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE FASTER GFS              
 AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS FASTER SOLUTION.           
 IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A 6 TO POSSIBLY 9 HOUR PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD               
 ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS DURING                 
 THE PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.8 ACROSS OUR NORTH TO 3.4 FOR OUR FAR                  
 SOUTHWEST. USING A MODIFIED GARCIA TECHNIQUE YIELDS MAX SNOW AMOUNTS           
 OF ABOUT 2.5 IN THE FAR NORTH TO ABOUT 5.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTH. IN             
 ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER QPFS               
 THIS RUN WITH EACH INDICATING SOME AREAS OF 0.5 INCH LIQUID ACROSS             
 OUR SOUTH.                                                                     
 WILD CARD REMAINS THE LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO THAT WE WILL END UP BEING           
 ABLE TO ACHIEVE. USING A 20 TO 1 RATIO FOR TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 20               
 DEGREE RANGE AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO FOR 20 TO 28 DEGREES...YIELD SOME             
 PRETTY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR PARTS OF OUR SOUTH (IN EXCESS OF 7             
 INCHES). GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WILL NOT GO THAT HIGH BUT             
 WE WILL NUDGE UP TO A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG             
 AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL KEEP 3 TO 5 INCHES GOING FOR THE             
 REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE...WILL HAVE A TIER OR TWO             
 OF COUNTIES BORDERING THE WARNING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH 1 TO 3                 
 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.                                                   
 ONLY CHANGES PLANNED TO THE HEADLINES WILL BE TO MOVE THE START TIME           
 OF THE SNOW ADVISORY AND THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST UP           
 TO 1 PM.                                                                       
 SYSTEM PULLS OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF            
 SNOW IS PRETTY MUCH OVER BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH             
 WILL THEN BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA...KEEPING COLD TEMPERATURES IN              
 PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK VORT PASSES QUICKLY           
 TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY BE             
 ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.                         
 WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING SO WIND CHILLS           
 SHOULD NOT BE THAT MUCH OF A FACTOR. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS           
 IN PLACE CURRENTLY...WILL GO AHEAD AND JUST KEEP THE WIND CHILL                
 ADVISORY UP FOR THE NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING.                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
  /ISSUED 441 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/                                            
 NRN STREAM REMAINS DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH ERN US               
 TROF REMAINING IN PLACE. PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION ON THE                  
 EXTREME SERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER S CNTRL              
 CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.                                                    
 STRONG H5 S/W DROPS THRU THE LAKES FRI WITH AN A REINFORCING SHORT             
 OF COLD AIR...AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -20C.  THIS SHOULD KICK OFF LAKE             
 EFFECT SHSN FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVE. SCT SHSN WILL LINGER INTO SAT AS            
 CENTER OF HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN PLAINS.                                    
 AS HIGH SLIDES EAST SAT NGT INTO SUN...THE SHSN WILL END AND HIGH              
 PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER.                                            
 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST             
 COAST AND A SRLY FLOW WILL BRING UP TEMPS A LITTLE.                            
 GENERALLY KEPT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A               
 GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS MONDAY.                                                
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ060-061-070-           
      071-077-078.                                                              
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-                
      042>046-051>056-064-065-074.                                              
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ062-063-072-           
      073-079>082-088.                                                          
 KY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>096.               
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ097>100.               
 IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-           
      066-073>075-080.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1215 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                
 RADAR AND OBS INDCG SNOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN FCST AREA             
 ATTM. GLANCE AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER INDIANA/ILLINOIS INDCG HEAVY                 
 SNOW IN A SWATH ACRS CNTRL ILLINOIS INTO CNTRL/SO CNTRL INDIANA.               
 SNOW IS ARRIVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN 12Z GFS/NAM INDCG...AND              
 ALSO A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN 12Z MODELS PROGGED. 15Z RUC AND SREF             
 INDCG HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW MAY END UP FALLING IN BROAD SWATH OVER            
 CINCY METRO FROM NRN KY COUNTIES NORTH INTO BUTLER/WARREN/CLINTON              
 CORRIDOR. HAVE EXPANDED HVY SNOW WARNING NORTH TO ENCOMPASS                    
 ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES...FROM DAYTON TO CHILLICOTHE. TEMPS                   
 REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 9 DEG INTO LWR TEENS ACRS MUCH OF THIS                    
 AREA...SO EVEN THOUGH HIGHEST QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF               
 HERE...COULD BE DEALING WITH 30 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THIS             
 AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE ALSO CHOSEN TO RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS               
 ACRS TRI STATE AREA AND INTO SOUTH CNTRL OH/NE KY WHERE 15 OR 20               
 TO 1 SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE REALIZED FOR DURATION OF EVENT.              
 NOW INDCG STORM TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES THRU THIS                        
 AREA...WITH OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY AT ISOLD HIGHER AMTS APPCHG 8                  
 INCHES.                                                                        
 SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS               
 AFTN...WITH ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER               
 THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                            
 NEW WARNING PRODUCT AND ZONE FCST ALREADY OUT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.        
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1040 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WITH SNOW ON THE WAY...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...NO FORECAST              
 UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SINCE WIND CHILLS HAVE RISEN ABOVE              
 -10...WILL CANCEL ADVISORY AND UPDATE ZONES TO DROP WIND CHILL                 
 HEADLINES.                                                                     
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 CLIPPER FEATURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO MID/UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY THIS               
 MORNING W/ WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OH VLY. -SN                
 CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN IL AND IS TIMED INTO WRN TAF SITES BETWEEN              
 15Z AND 18Z. BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OH RIVER SOUTH...SO HIT                
 CVG/LUK WITH LOWEST VSBYS AND CIGS. OBS UPSTREAM SHOW GENERALLY                
 IFR W/ OCCL LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...AND EXPECT SIMILAR                    
 CONDITIONS WHEN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO OH VLY. KCMH/KLCK MAY BE FAR               
 ENOUGH N TO AVOID HEAVIEST PRECIP SO DID NOT GO BELOW IFR VSBYS                
 OR CIGS THERE. BEST FORCING IS TIMED FOR 21Z- 02Z...WITH PRECIP                
 TAPERING OFF BY 06Z. MODELS SHOW LL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND                  
 PRECIP SO KEPT MVFR CIGS THRU 12Z.                                             
 HAWBLITZEL                                                                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
  /ISSUED 300 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
 GFS AND NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TRACK           
 OF CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS             
 SPED UP SOME AND IS NOW A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE FASTER GFS              
 AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS FASTER SOLUTION.           
 IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A 6 TO POSSIBLY 9 HOUR PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD               
 ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS DURING                 
 THE PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.8 ACROSS OUR NORTH TO 3.4 FOR OUR FAR                  
 SOUTHWEST. USING A MODIFIED GARCIA TECHNIQUE YIELDS MAX SNOW AMOUNTS           
 OF ABOUT 2.5 IN THE FAR NORTH TO ABOUT 5.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTH. IN             
 ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER QPFS               
 THIS RUN WITH EACH INDICATING SOME AREAS OF 0.5 INCH LIQUID ACROSS             
 OUR SOUTH.                                                                     
 WILD CARD REMAINS THE LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO THAT WE WILL END UP BEING           
 ABLE TO ACHIEVE. USING A 20 TO 1 RATIO FOR TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 20               
 DEGREE RANGE AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO FOR 20 TO 28 DEGREES...YIELD SOME             
 PRETTY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR PARTS OF OUR SOUTH (IN EXCESS OF 7             
 INCHES). GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WILL NOT GO THAT HIGH BUT             
 WE WILL NUDGE UP TO A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG             
 AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL KEEP 3 TO 5 INCHES GOING FOR THE             
 REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA. ELSEWHERE...WILL HAVE A TIER OR TWO             
 OF COUNTIES BORDERING THE WARNING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH 1 TO 3                 
 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.                                                   
 ONLY CHANGES PLANNED TO THE HEADLINES WILL BE TO MOVE THE START TIME           
 OF THE SNOW ADVISORY AND THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST UP           
 TO 1 PM.                                                                       
 SYSTEM PULLS OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF            
 SNOW IS PRETTY MUCH OVER BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH             
 WILL THEN BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA...KEEPING COLD TEMPERATURES IN              
 PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK VORT PASSES QUICKLY           
 TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY BE             
 ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.                         
 WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING SO WIND CHILLS           
 SHOULD NOT BE THAT MUCH OF A FACTOR. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS           
 IN PLACE CURRENTLY...WILL GO AHEAD AND JUST KEEP THE WIND CHILL                
 ADVISORY UP FOR THE NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING.                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
  /ISSUED 441 PM EST MON FEB 5 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/                                            
 NRN STREAM REMAINS DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH ERN US               
 TROF REMAINING IN PLACE. PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION ON THE                  
 EXTREME SERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER S CNTRL              
 CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS.                                                    
 STRONG H5 S/W DROPS THRU THE LAKES FRI WITH AN A REINFORCING SHORT             
 OF COLD AIR...AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -20C.  THIS SHOULD KICK OFF LAKE             
 EFFECT SHSN FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVE. SCT SHSN WILL LINGER INTO SAT AS            
 CENTER OF HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN PLAINS.                                    
 AS HIGH SLIDES EAST SAT NGT INTO SUN...THE SHSN WILL END AND HIGH              
 PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER.                                            
 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST             
 COAST AND A SRLY FLOW WILL BRING UP TEMPS A LITTLE.                            
 GENERALLY KEPT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A               
 GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS MONDAY.                                                
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ060-061-070-           
      071-077-078.                                                              
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-                
      042>046-051>056-064-065-074.                                              
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ062-063-072-           
      073-079>082-088.                                                          
 KY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>096.               
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ097>100.               
 IN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-           
      066-073>075-080.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh