FXUS04 KWBC 170616
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
215 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 17/1200 UTC THRU AUG 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/SW/NAME AREA...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ACRS THE WEST IN THE MASS
FIELDS SHOWING A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES.  AS A RESULT..EXPECT PCPN
COVERAGE TO BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS
AS A DRIER NW FLOW SLOWLY EVOLVES.  HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
SEVERAL POCKETS OF MORE CONCENTRATED DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY NEAR VORTS EVIDENT OVER NV AND OTHER OVER THE
OR/ID BORDER. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT CONSENSUS OF ONE PCPN
MAX ACRS CNTL ID IN DEFORMATION BAND EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
OR/ID VORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE. 
OTHERWISE..CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE MODELS ABILITY TO
PINPOINT AREAS CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND TENDED TO USE A
MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING ACRS THE NAME AREA. 

SD/NE...
DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS HERE AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOWING AN
AREA OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHWR/TSTMS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK LOW
EMERGING ACRS SERN WY TUE NIGHT.  MSTR IS THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN AS THERE IS A MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET AND RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  GIVEN DECENT MODEL
QPF AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA DID NOT DIFFER TOO
MUCH.

MIDWEST...
SOME SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE
MAIN FORCING AS BEST UPR SUPPORT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT ACRS
THE GT LAKES.  GENL AMOUNTS OF .25 INCH OR SO SEEM
REASONABLE.

EXTREME NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY...
MODELS SHOW DECENT TIMING WITH STG VORT AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT
FCST TO DROP SWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY BY THE
END OF THE PD.  USED A MODEL BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF..WHICH BRING SOME .25 TO .50 INCH AMOUNTS
INTO NRN MN.

SERN STATES...FL...
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL SPREAD OF MSTR NEWD ACRS THE SE STATES
UNDER DVLPG SW LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS MSTR ADVECTION
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL
TSTMS.  DIDN'T SEE ANY STG TRIGGER OR FOCUSING MECHANISM SO
WENT WITH A BROAD BRUSH APCH ACRS THIS AREA..WITH MOST AREAL
AVG AMOUNTS IN THE .25 INCH OR LESS RANGE EXCEPT ACRS SRN FL
WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER PWS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME .50 TO 1 INCH LOCAL AMOUNTS. 

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 225057 237068 248077 256082 264088 268091 275092 279090 
      281091 298100 304108 310117 318125 319127 322126 323125 
      327120 331118 336120 342134 344138 349140 356140 360139 
      375144 378156 379159 381161 385164 391167 398168 404171 
      408174 417181 423186 429187 434192 437197 442203 450209 
      455213 462216 472219 477219 479216 472206 466199 463195 
      459189 464177 466170 468167 469166 474167 481168 484168 
      485164 485160 483158 479155 474151 471147 472143 482133 
      485130 484125 479123 469118 464103 456091 451087 445084 
      438080 434077 431076 427076 423072 421066 421063 424058 
      431052 438052 450051 453047 455036 450023 445013 439000 
      438986 438979 438974 437970 436964 435958 433954 431947 
      430941 427937 425930 426923 428906 431892 434883 438872 
      440868 444864 449862 455861 460863 463871 465891 468909 
      468914 466922 464930 461938 458952 458972 458984 463986 
      467983 471980 474981 474986 474995 473004 474014 475020 
      478029 482032 487030 490026 493020 504003 511993 515992 
      519997 521006 524010 533004 538999 541994 546982 547977 
      549972 551966 551961 553955 553952 552945 549941 544940 
      539937 532940 529937 529931 530923 528911 526898 521886 
      518881 516875 510864 505855 500852 494855 491855 496850 
      502838 507824 509818 508808 505798 502788 501784 499779 
      495776 490780 488778 487772 484766 479762 469765 472756 
      472753 470751 468750 463750 456752 450755 446759 438768 
      426784 419794 415800 413806 410831 406841 401846 396847 
      388848 382851 379853 377856 376864 373875 371883 373892 
      375897 375902 372908 367912 363917 361920 363923 366923 
      372924 376926 382932 388936 399937 401939 404943 405949 
      407965 405971 405977 402006 402011 400022 398030 395035 
      389038 383039 372045 360048 349053 344052 341050 334044 
      327038 323033 320029 316026 311024 306023 296020 287015 
      283013 280013 271019 270023 272027 280033 281038 280043 
      278048 273051 268050 257048 247044 239040 233037 228037 
 0.01 386774 379771 376768 371766 360769 353769 347773 342781 
      337791 334796 330799 318804 310806 300805 291802 283798 
      276795 267794 255795 250797 247799 244802 242808 242812 
      243819 244821 246820 248817 250816 255820 268829 276835 
      284841 289845 292851 295857 298868 300872 303874 307873 
      310869 311865 315856 319848 325843 330841 332840 337841 
      345846 349847 353847 357844 361840 366831 371821 380800 
      382794 382787 386779 386774 
 0.01 230991 236990 238989 243986 246983 248981 250977 252973 
      255970 257967 255967 249968 244968 239969 233970 231970 
 0.25 500898 500892 499885 495876 491876 489879 485887 482896 
      480905 477915 476924 477933 480936 484937 489934 493928 
      496920 498911 499901 500898 
 0.25 459156 461152 460147 458139 457133 455122 452109 453104 
      453101 450097 446094 438093 432096 429100 426105 424107 
      425110 426112 430117 433119 433124 431131 430134 430140 
      433152 435159 440163 447165 451166 454164 459156 
 0.25 426832 422830 420830 418832 416837 416841 413845 410859 
      408871 408877 407884 404890 400896 399903 402908 405910 
      409909 413905 416899 417892 418876 421863 426849 426843 
      426834 426832 
 0.25 431012 432007 432000 431988 430977 427966 424958 421959 
      417967 416975 415987 416992 417998 419010 420017 426025 
      429021 431014 431012 
 0.25 416103 416096 415091 409083 408076 407073 404072 399075 
      397079 397086 397090 396094 389099 386109 383114 383117 
      385120 388119 397115 406112 411110 414107 416103 
 0.25 359781 359780 356781 353783 353784 351785 349788 348790 
      347793 347794 347798 346799 344802 344803 345803 348803 
      350801 350800 352798 354795 354794 356791 356790 358787 
      358785 359782 359781 
 0.25 397064 397061 395061 392062 387064 384066 378066 374068 
      373075 375082 378086 381087 384086 387083 389076 392072 
      395068 397064 
 0.25 348812 347811 344811 341813 339815 339816 340816 342816 
      345815 347812 348812 
 0.25 305826 305823 303821 301821 300821 297822 297823 297826 
      298829 299832 300832 303831 303830 304828 305826 
 0.25 333062 333057 332055 324052 319049 313046 313042 308039 
      302040 306046 309052 311059 313066 316068 319069 324067 
      330065 333062 
 0.25 288820 285814 279810 275808 269804 265803 259802 254805 
      253809 255813 260817 265820 271821 276821 284821 288820 
 0.25 283075 280070 277068 269065 259063 250060 244057 237052 
      233054 235057 242063 248068 253072 261076 266077 272077 
      277077 283075 
 0.50 453147 453143 451135 449130 447125 446123 443123 440125 
      438132 436140 437148 440153 444156 450154 452151 453147 
 0.50 444109 444105 446101 444100 444101 444105 442109 444109 
      444109 
 0.50 428005 428997 428989 428981 427973 425967 422967 421970 
      420978 420983 420990 421995 423997 424001 424009 425011 
      427009 428005 
 0.50 266809 263807 263806 260806 257806 256809 258812 260813 
      261814 263815 265813 265812 266809 
 0.50 267072 266071 264070 262069 261068 258068 256068 256069 
      258071 259072 261072 264072 266072 267072  
 
$$