AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
359 AM MDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TDA AND TNGT)                                                                  
MAIN TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE              
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                                             
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES HAD            
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN CA/SRN NV WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE            
TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE HIGH/S ERN HALF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN             
AND CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. ALSO...THERE WAS AN ERN WAVE CYCLONIC SHEAR              
AXIS ACROSS WRN TX...AND NEARLY STATIONARY OR SLOWLY DRIFTING NWWD.             
MUCH OF YDA/S CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT. SFC-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL RESPECTABLE WITH DEW POINTS              
IN THE 20S-NEAR 50 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 SERN CO.                      
TDA AND TNGT...WRF AND GFS HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY OF DEVELOPING                   
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS THIS AFTN/EVE AND THEN                
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS               
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HARD TO ARGUE THIS SCENARIO.                   
PRECIPITATION MOTION WOULD BE S-SWLY...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR                  
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR/SERN             
CO PLAINS. WRF/GFS KEEP THE SERN CO PLAINS RELATIVELY DRY THIS                  
AFTN/EVE...AS SBCAPES VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0 J/KG GIVEN              
THE WARMING/H5 DRYING ALOFT AND SFC DEW POINTS DECREASING. THE                  
GREATEST INSTABILITY...ALBEIT WEAK-MARGINALLY MODERATE...SHOULD BE              
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE MAIN TSTM IMPACT WILL BE HAIL              
UP TO 1/4 INCH AND MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN GIVEN FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO             
HEIGHTS OF 14K-16K FT MSL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC                 
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5-6 G/KG. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. MAXIMUM              
TEMPERATURES WILL...AGAIN...BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE                  
READINGS FOR EARLY SEP WITH 90S ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SERN CO                  
PLAINS. WENT WITH A 50-50 BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE.  METZE                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CWFA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER                 
RIDGE WHILE UPPER STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA                    
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY 00Z THURSDAY.                            
DURING THURSDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES              
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. CWFA IS THEN IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW                
ALOFT PATTERN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS                  
ATTEMPT TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS IN                
PART TO THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING                   
GIVING WAY TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME FROM                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD                
SUFFICE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY NIL POPS                    
FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO ISOLATED POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.          
STILL PROJECT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO                      
CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES                
THEN DROPPING TO VALUES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SATURDAY.              
AT THIS POINT...WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD                   
OCCUR THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES NOTED                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH                      
VALLEYS BETWEEN 18Z/03 - 06Z/04 INCLUDING NEAR THE KALS TERMINAL                
POINT. KCOS AND KPUB WILL HAVE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR                       
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE. PLAN TO GO WITH VICINITY TSTMS IN KALS                 
TAFS AND KEEP OUT OF THE KCOS/KPUB. ANY TSTM WILL HAVE ERRATIC                  
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...MVFR-VFR CEILINGS...AND POSSIBLY MODERATE-                 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. METZE                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
345 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE APPROXIMATELY 150 MI               
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHER INSTABILITY               
OVER THE WATERS (WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN ADDITION TO              
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW) ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WHILE SHOWER             
ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS               
SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE LOW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S              
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                                             
.FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE SOME DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT OVER THE                   
EXACT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. NAM AND THE RUC SEEM TO HAVE              
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS               
THIS SOLUTION. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE                   
GREATEST OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND FLORIDA COAST...SO                 
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. PWAT WILL               
DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE                  
TROPICAL AIRMASS...PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW                
WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN AFOREMENTIONED FLORIDA AREAS.              
PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY                           
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.                                                 
.FOR TOMORROW...MODELS SHOW THAT A JET AXIS WILL DIG AROUND THE                 
UPPER HIGH AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR              
WILL THEN WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...LEADING               
TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                                         
.LONG TERM...UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES...AND IS                     
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW.                
THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IS THAT DRIER AIR AND LOWER CHANCES OF                    
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY                  
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND LINGERS WITH NO WELL DEFINED SYSTEM TO KICK                 
IT OUT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BACK                   
TOWARDS FLORIDA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR                
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A                  
DEGREE OR TWO OF CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOST TAF SITES ARE REPORTING CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT AND              
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY                 
POSITIONED OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE. LIFR/POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL            
PERSIST THOUGH AROUND 13Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER               
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ERODES LOW CLOUD DECKS.  WILL CONTINUE VCSH                
WORDING TODAY...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AFTER 17Z FOR SITE               
KGNV WHERE SEA-BREEZE COLLISION WILL LIKELY OCCUR COUPLED WITH                  
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE                     
JACKSONVILLE AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER THROUGH                    
MID-WEEK WITH POSSIBLE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTH FLORIDA COASTLINE             
LATE THIS WEEK. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL              
WATERS DURING THE DAY AS SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WORK DOWN THE THE             
LOCAL COASTLINE...WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY PERSISTING               
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS HOW HIGH THE LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS               
WILL GET...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SCA CONDITIONS ESTABLISHING IN THE               
LOCAL WATERS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  89  67  91  68 /  20  10  10   0                                           
SSI  85  74  87  76 /  40  20  20   0                                           
JAX  87  71  89  73 /  50  30  30   0                                           
SGJ  86  74  87  76 /  60  40  40   0                                           
GNV  89  71  90  71 /  50  40  40  20                                           
OCF  90  71  90  71 /  50  40  40  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HURLBUT/ZAPPE                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
530 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE CWA TODAY.              
WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                        
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...LIFTED INDEX VALUES REMAINING                     
POSITIVE ACROSS THE CWA...AND GUIDANCE POPS LESS THAN 10                        
PERCENT...A DRY FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES               
SHOULD BE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S DURING THE NEXT                 
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE                     
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.                                  
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE MIDDLE               
OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD GIVE A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE                  
SOUTHEAST AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT                 
THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL FRIDAY AND FOR NOW THIS STILL LOOKS OKAY.                
LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED                   
LOOKS REASONABLE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND WITH                 
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN              
BUT HARDLY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE TAFS. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF                    
CEILINGS FROM 5-9KFT FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON AT THIS TIME...PICKED UP            
WELL BY THE NAM AND RUC EARLIER TONIGHT. GFS WANTS TO SWING THE                 
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NAM HASN`T              
QUITE PICKED UP ON THIS YET...FOR NOW WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY TREND.            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES TUESDAY                   
MORNING WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR            
FOG/HAZE AT THE TYPICAL SITES. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY BENIGN FORECAST.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          90  62  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
ATLANTA         89  68  92  70  89 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
BLAIRSVILLE     89  60  91  59  90 /   0   5   0  10   5                        
CARTERSVILLE    88  59  92  62  93 /   0   5   0   5   5                        
COLUMBUS        92  65  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
GAINESVILLE     89  66  91  67  90 /   0   5   0  10   5                        
MACON           91  61  94  66  95 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
ROME            92  62  94  66  94 /   0   5   5  10   5                        
PEACHTREE CITY  90  59  92  60  91 /   0   0   0   5   5                        
VIDALIA         89  69  93  69  94 /  10   0   0   5   5                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
41/TDP                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
939 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS EXTREME SE OK...AND                      
ADJACENT SW AR...MAINLY THE NE EXTREMES OF OUR SW AR                            
COUNTIES...ALONG A WEAK INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT THE                 
18Z PROGS AND NEW RUC HAS PICKED UP ON...THAT EXTENDS FROM SE                   
OK...INTO SCNTRL AR/EXTREME NE LA...AND INTO SCNTRL MS...THAT HAS               
BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TN/OHIO                  
VALLEYS...AND BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER FAR W TX. RECENT                 
RADAR LOOPS SHOW RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS...AND               
POSSIBLE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE SLOWLY DRIFTING SW                 
INTO N MCCURTAIN COUNTY...AND ADJACENT SW AR...PER RECENT SFC OBS               
FROM MT HERMAN AND BROKEN BOW OK...DEQ AND TXK AR. HOWEVER...IR                 
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE GRADUALLY                          
WARMING...MEANING THAT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS WELL.                  
HOWEVER...IN THE EVENING ZONE UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR                  
THESE AREAS TO LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING              
AFTERWARDS.                                                                     
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALL-TOGETHER...WITH               
BLOB OF RAIN OVER NE TX...STRETCHING W OF A CANTON TO ATHENS LINE...            
POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF WOOD AND SMITH COUNTIES BEFORE                    
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS WELL. CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER               
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS RICH GULF INFLOW AND SUBTROPICAL                     
MOISTURE PLUME FROM TS HENRIETTE S OF BAJA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NE              
ACROSS TX/OK AHEAD OF STATIONARY TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER FAR W TX.               
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM LATE WHERE EARLIER RAINS FELL...BUT                    
EXTENSIVE AC/CIRROSTRATUS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD                               
DEVELOPMENT...THUS NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES ATTM.                     
ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS PER CURRENT                       
TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                             
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DECREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS             
THE FOUR STATE REGION DUE TO LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH LIGHT              
WINDS...A WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE            
FEEDING INTO THE AREA WILL EXPECT TO SEE FOG/MIST AND POSSIBLY LOW              
STRATUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINING HOURS OF DARKNESS. MOST DENSE            
FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 04/10Z TO 04/14Z TUESDAY WITH             
SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 STATUTE MILES MOST COMMON AND CEILINGS           
AT FL20 DOWN TO FL10. SOME LOWER CEILINGS BELOW FL10 POSSIBLE ACROSS            
E TX AND THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW OK...SW AR...AND S               
CENTRAL AR INTO NE LA WHERE MOST OF THE RAINFALL FELL ON LABOR DAY.             
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS             
THE TEMPERATURES WARM AND UPPER DISTURBANCES ENHANCE DEVELOP FROM               
04/18Z INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. /06/              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  74  89  72  86 /  20  40  40  60                                           
MLU  71  90  72  88 /  40  50  40  50                                           
DEQ  70  89  70  84 /  60  50  50  70                                           
TXK  71  89  71  85 /  40  50  50  70                                           
ELD  69  87  71  86 /  60  30  40  50                                           
TYR  71  85  72  85 /  40  50  50  70                                           
GGG  71  88  71  86 /  40  50  40  60                                           
LFK  70  88  71  86 /  30  40  40  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/06                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR MQT COUNTY WITH VSBYS OVER THE HIER                   
TERRAIN AOB 1/4SM ATTM. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO BECOME MORE WDSPRD              
OVER MORE OF MQT COUNTY LATER AND ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF INTERIOR             
WCNTRL UPR MI WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING/CAPPING IN THE WAKE OF             
H85 WARM FROPA WHILE SFC BNDRY REMAINS TO THE S AND INVRN BECOMES               
MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. NO OTHER SITES ARE REPORTING LO VSBYS                   
ATTM...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL ADVYS FOR A FEW HRS TO SEE HOW              
FOG DVLPS. BUT EXPECT ADVYS WL BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST ALL            
THE CNTRL COUNTIES FM IMT-IRON RIVER TO THE KEWEENAW AS MID LVL                 
DRYING OVERSPREADS LLVL MSTR. THE H85 WARM FNT CURRENTLY STRETCHES              
FM THE KEWEENAW ACRS NRN MQT COUNTY INTO THE ERN ZNS...AS MARKED BY             
AXIS OF ACCAS AS SHOWN ON VSBL STLT IMAGERY. LATEST RUC SHOWS H85               
WARM FROPA ACRS THE E BY 09Z...SO CUT POPS ACRS THE FAR ERN ZNS AFT             
THAT TIME. DENSE FOG MAY DVLP OVER THE E LATE AS WELL FOLLOWING THIS            
FROPA.                                                                          
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO MAIN FEATURES PRODUCING THE HEAVY             
RAIN OVER UPR MI. FIRST WAS H85 WARM FRONT STRADDLING THE SOUTHERN              
U.P. A SFC WARM FRONT IS NOW JUST EDGING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF              
CNTRL UPR MI. SECOND MAIN FEATURE IS 130KT H3 JET OVR ONTARIO.                  
EARLIER TODAY THIS JET WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LIFTING ALONG H85            
FRONT DUE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND HELPING TO INCREASE FGEN FORCING.             
THIS AFTN THE JET CONTINUES EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART THE PCPN IS              
ENDING ACROSS UPR MI. WHAT AN EVENT...FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPR              
MI...THIS TURNS OUT TO BE. ALREADY SET ALL TIME DAILY RECORD                    
RAINFALL FOR ANY MONTH...NO LESS SEPTEMBER. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 4.09            
INCHES SET IN JUNE OF 1968. DAILY TOTAL THUS FAR...4.28 INCHES. MOST            
WE HAVE HEARD IS AROUND 5 INCHES OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND IN                  
EASTERN MQT COUNTY NEAR SKANDIA. A COMPLETE LIST OF TOTALS IS ON OUR            
WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT IN THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION.             
AN OFFICIAL RECORD REPORT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING WHEN THE EVENT            
IS FINISHED.                                                                    
MEANWHILE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. SO THE             
TIGHT GRADIENT GUIDANCE SHOWED YDY FOR THE EVENT WAS RIGHT ON.                  
LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW ALSO DID FAIRLY WELL WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. DO IN               
LARGE PART TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER...THUS              
FAR...HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF MINOR STREET FLOODING...GRAVEL ROAD              
WASHOUTS...AND HIGH WATER IN CULVERTS. NO MAJOR FLOODING REPORTED SO            
FAR. PRETTY AMAZING CONSIDERING VOLUME OF WATER THAT OCCURRED IN                
SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.                                                    
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS POINT TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE                    
OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. LACK OF                 
STRONG INFLOW INTO THE DECAYING H85 FRONT MINIMIZES THE THREAT OF               
HEAVY RAIN. CONCERNED THAT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION THERE                 
MAY BE A CHANCE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION DUE TO LINGERING STRONG DEEP             
LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLOSE TO 1500J/KG. THUS FAR...LACK OF MOIST             
INFLOW INTO THIS AREA IS LIMITING CONVECTION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.            
MOVING ON INTO THE LATER EVENING...FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. LOWER              
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND MID LEVEL DRYING IS BEGINNING TO TAKE                
SHAPE. INCLUDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN GRIDS. STILL ASSESSING THE                
NEED FOR AN ADVY. ALREADY SEEING DENSE FOG IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF                  
NCNTRL UPR MI ATTM AT OUR OFFICE NEAR NEGAUNEE.                                 
FLIP THE SWITCH FOR THE WEATHER ON WED ONCE WARM FRONT MOVES                    
THROUGH. SFC WINDS SWITCH TO THE SSW WHICH ALLOWS THE HEAT TO                   
REALLY KICK IN. IN FACT...HARD TO BELIEVE I KNOW...BUT SETUP OF                 
H85 TEMPS AROUND 20C AND WSW WINDS (GFS/NAM/UKMET) APPEARS QUITE                
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD AROUND 90 READINGS TO OCCUR WED AFTN AWAY              
FM MODERATION OF LK MICHIGAN. DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR                
(BARAGA TO MARQUETTE TO MUNISING) MAY TRY TO REACH MID 90S. NOT BAD             
WHEN LOW END OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS UPR 80S. ALL GUIDANCE IN REALLY             
GOOD AGREEMENT TO A HOT AND FAIRLY HUMID (DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 60S)             
EARLY SEPTEMBER DAY. RECORD HIGH AT NWS MQT OF 88 SET IN 1998 LOOKS             
IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
TAKING A GLIMPSE AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...RIDGING WILL START OUT            
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS            
OF THE NATION.  FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE                  
PROGRESSION ON A SHORTWAVE SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA AND                
NEBRASKA...AS IT GETS SCOOPED UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR US.             
STILL...THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM              
THE WEST...SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER             
PENINSULA.  AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES ON              
THE THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY 12Z FRIDAY.  IN GENERAL...THE            
SURFACE LOW SHOULD STRETCH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD                   
THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA.  UPPER PENINSULA MAINLY STAYS IN THE WARM                
SLOT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE             
BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT              
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.  MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON                
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE                    
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW...BUT WILL STICK TO THE LOW TO MID               
80S FOR NOW.                                                                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AFTER THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS                
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN THE 60S.                                 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE                
YEAR RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR THE MARQUETTE AREA.                            
AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DAYS 4 TO 7...SATURDAY THROUGH                   
TUESDAY...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.  HPC UTILIZED A                 
COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z NCEP-GEFS AND ECMWF.  BASICALLY                
THIS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY POP FOR MUCH OF THE                
EXTENDED...AS THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE                
NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT DENSE FOG/IFR VSBYS TO DVLP THIS EVNG/OVRNGT UNDER INCRSGLY              
SHALLOW INVRN AS MID LVL DRYING/CAPPING FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF H85 WARM             
FNT WHILE SFC WARM FNT REMAINS TO THE S. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE              
DRAMATICALLY TO VFR WED MRNG ONCE WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N. DIURNAL             
MIXING WL ALLOW DVLPMNT OF GUSTY SW WINDS AT SAW.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS A            
WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN UPR MI. GUSTY E WINDS TO 25 KT            
ON LK SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH BY WED MORNING. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG             
WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD            
OF TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF DAKOTAS. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE              
POSSIBLE ON THE FAVORED EASTERN LAKE. MORE STRONG SOUTH WINDS                   
POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS UPR LAKES. WINDS TURNING            
TO THE NE ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD APPROACH 30 KT. NO                
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVY MIZ001-003-005                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLA                                                                
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
753 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...ISSUED 415 AM EDT                                                   
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING             
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE FOUR               
CORNERS INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA. THIS PLACES             
UPPER MICHIGAN IN NW FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCTION OF HIGH              
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND QUIET WEATHER. THE HIGH IS PRESENT                  
(SITUATED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN)...HOWEVER               
THE WEATHER IS FAR FROM QUIET. LOCAL RADAR LOOP AND LIGHTNING PLOT              
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAND MARAIS MN ACROSS MUCH OF             
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A FEW                   
MECHANISMS: AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF             
A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NW ONTARIO TO NEAR               
WAWA...STRONG 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS...AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING               
WHICH IS ADVECTING IN 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL             
MN PER RUC ANALYSIS. SOME NOTES ABOUT THE PCPN SO FAR. WE HAD ONE               
STORM CLOSER TO THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE AREA THAT MAY HAVE COMBINED              
WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER             
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DIED. THE SECOND NOTE IS                
WHAT HAS BEEN PLANNED WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.              
THE CMX AIRPORT HAS HAD ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 8 PM...WHICH               
HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST                 
ARBFLSMQT FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL OF THE PCPN IS BEING FOCUSED                
NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDS FROM A                 
1006MB LOW IN NW SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VERY            
WARM AIR EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT 00Z OF 19C AT            
MPX AND 25C AT BIS AND ABR. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON WATER VAPOR...A             
SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN TEXAS HAS               
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD. HIGH CLOUDS CAN NOW BE SEEN IN SE KANSAS.                
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THU.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN HOW WARM              
IT GETS ON WED.                                                                 
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO                  
MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND. SINCE             
THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN            
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THUS...THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN WI             
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL                    
FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY THE               
NAM/GFS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.               
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WHEN THE AREA              
IS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SE MOVING 120 KT JET                  
STREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS PROG THE JET MOVING INTO SW                     
QUEBEC...THUS REDUCING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IT APPEARS THAT              
THE PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT FOR             
SIMPLICITY IN THE FORECAST...WILL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN. ALL THE              
CLOUDS...LIKELY WITH LOW CEILINGS...AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES             
DOWN. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE U.P. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...                 
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE MORE SUN CAN                  
OCCUR...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS THERE AROUND 16C AT 18Z SUPPORTS HIGHS             
GETTING CLOSE TO 80.                                                            
TONIGHT...MODELS PROG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO THE                 
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z WED...APPARENTLY MORE CAUSED BY THE WESTERN                  
TROUGH SPLITTING INTO TWO AND THE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING THE                  
RIDGE. THE RESULT WILL BE TO BEGIN LIFTING BOTH THE SURFACE AND                 
850MB WARM FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE                    
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT THAN THE EAST              
SIDE. THUS...HAVING THE POPS END OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST HALF OF THE              
U.P. STILL LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME BR OR                  
FOG...LIKELY DUE TO ADVECTION IN OF SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT THE                
SURFACE. HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG. THESE HIGHER                   
DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WILL ALSO               
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ACROSS THE CWA. 55 TO 60            
READINGS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE SEEM REASONABLE.                                 
WED...ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A VERY WARM DAY...ALONG WITH SOME               
HUMIDITY FROM DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...AS THE UPPER                
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER ALL OF THE CWA AT 18Z...CAUSING THE SURFACE               
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE                
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18-20C...RH PLOTS ONLY SHOW THE                 
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
GIVEN THE 850MB READINGS AND 10-15 MPH SSW WINDS AND PLENTY OF                  
SUN...READINGS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST             
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED OUR 30-DAY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE               
WHICH SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 90 (I.E. PELKIE...LA                        
BRANCHE...STEPHENSON). EVEN MARQUETTE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90. THE                
EAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FLOW OFF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN AND MORNING CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THUS COOLER               
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THERE.                                                
WED NIGHT...NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED             
TO HEAD UP TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE A             
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT             
THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW                
DURING THIS PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE. BY 12Z            
THU...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL DEPICT THE FRONT NEAR AITKIN MINNESOTA.             
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE            
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WARM TEMPS FROM WED SUGGESTS                
TEMPS MAY NOT DROP THAT MUCH. IN FACT...OUR BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE             
KEEPS SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW AREAS (I.E. COPPER HARBOR AND               
MARQUETTE) AT OR ABOVE 70. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE            
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD AS ANY                 
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND WITH THE              
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.               
THU THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO             
WHEN PCPN IS GOING TO OCCUR. ON THU...MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW FROM            
NORTHERN MISSOURI TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE                 
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME              
HEATING COULD CONCEIVABLY GENERATE THE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME STORMS               
SEEN DOWN IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS IS WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS.               
THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IN CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE            
POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN MODELS SHOW THE            
OTHER PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS. LATEST MODEL                 
GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT              
WHETHER IT WILL BE A LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING (ECMWF/NAM) OR              
JUST A STRUNG OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY (GFS/UKMET). EITHER WAY...IT                 
SEEMS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WAIT A            
FEW MORE RUNS TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS.                                          
AFTER FRI...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE FALL-LIKE...BUT TO WHAT              
INTENSITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH MODELS FAIRLY INCONSISTENT BETWEEN            
EACH OTHER AND WITHIN THEMSELVES FROM RUN TO RUN. IN ANY EVENT...IT             
APPEARS TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE                 
NORTHERN U.S....WHICH SHOULD HELP DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN. SOME GFS               
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL TO GET THEM CLOSE TO 0C...SUCH              
AS THE 12Z ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED             
OFF A LOT. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS AREA OF MAX FRONTOGENESIS               
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.              
ALTHOUGH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL END...SHALLOW ESE FLOW OF                    
MOISTENED LLVLS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WARM FNT LAYING ACRS THE UPR             
MIDWEST SUGS LO CLDS WL PREDOMINATE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE                     
SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE TODAY.                       
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FOG             
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND BECOME DENSE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS A            
WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN UPR MI. THIS WILL RESULT IN             
15 TO 25 KT ENE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WINDS BACKING E            
10 TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF. OTHERWISE...STRONGER S WINDS                    
EXPECTED MID WEEK AHEAD OF TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF DAKOTAS.              
15 TO 25 KT S TO SW WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON              
THE FAVORED EASTERN LAKE LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. WINDS SHOULD                  
REMAIN BLO 30 KT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION/MARIN...JLB                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING             
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE FOUR               
CORNERS INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND TROUGHING OVER SE CANADA. THIS PLACES             
UPPER MICHIGAN IN NW FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCTION OF HIGH              
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND QUIET WEATHER. THE HIGH IS PRESENT                  
(SITUATED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN)...HOWEVER               
THE WEATHER IS FAR FROM QUIET. LOCAL RADAR LOOP AND LIGHTNING PLOT              
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAND MARAIS MN ACROSS MUCH OF             
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A FEW                   
MECHANISMS: AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF             
A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NW ONTARIO TO NEAR               
WAWA...STRONG 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS...AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING               
WHICH IS ADVECTING IN 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL             
MN PER RUC ANALYSIS. SOME NOTES ABOUT THE PCPN SO FAR. WE HAD ONE               
STORM CLOSER TO THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE AREA THAT MAY HAVE COMBINED              
WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER             
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY. THAT STORM HAS SINCE DIED. THE SECOND NOTE IS                
WHAT HAS BEEN PLANNED WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.              
THE CMX AIRPORT HAS HAD ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 8 PM...WHICH               
HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST                 
ARBFLSMQT FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL OF THE PCPN IS BEING FOCUSED                
NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDS FROM A                 
1006MB LOW IN NW SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VERY            
WARM AIR EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT 00Z OF 19C AT            
MPX AND 25C AT BIS AND ABR. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON WATER VAPOR...A             
SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN TEXAS HAS               
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD. HIGH CLOUDS CAN NOW BE SEEN IN SE KANSAS.                
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THU.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN HOW WARM              
IT GETS ON WED.                                                                 
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO                  
MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND. SINCE             
THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN            
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THUS...THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN WI             
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL                    
FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY THE               
NAM/GFS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.               
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WHEN THE AREA              
IS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SE MOVING 120 KT JET                  
STREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS PROG THE JET MOVING INTO SW                     
QUEBEC...THUS REDUCING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IT APPEARS THAT              
THE PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT FOR             
SIMPLICITY IN THE FORECAST...WILL JUST MENTION LIGHT RAIN. ALL THE              
CLOUDS...LIKELY WITH LOW CEILINGS...AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES             
DOWN. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE U.P. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...                 
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE MORE SUN CAN                  
OCCUR...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS THERE AROUND 16C AT 18Z SUPPORTS HIGHS             
GETTING CLOSE TO 80.                                                            
TONIGHT...MODELS PROG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO THE                 
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z WED...APPARENTLY MORE CAUSED BY THE WESTERN                  
TROUGH SPLITTING INTO TWO AND THE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING THE                  
RIDGE. THE RESULT WILL BE TO BEGIN LIFTING BOTH THE SURFACE AND                 
850MB WARM FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE                    
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT THAN THE EAST              
SIDE. THUS...HAVING THE POPS END OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST HALF OF THE              
U.P. STILL LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME BR OR                  
FOG...LIKELY DUE TO ADVECTION IN OF SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT THE                
SURFACE. HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG. THESE HIGHER                   
DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WILL ALSO               
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ACROSS THE CWA. 55 TO 60            
READINGS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE SEEM REASONABLE.                                 
WED...ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A VERY WARM DAY...ALONG WITH SOME               
HUMIDITY FROM DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S...AS THE UPPER                
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER ALL OF THE CWA AT 18Z...CAUSING THE SURFACE               
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE                
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18-20C...RH PLOTS ONLY SHOW THE                 
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
GIVEN THE 850MB READINGS AND 10-15 MPH SSW WINDS AND PLENTY OF                  
SUN...READINGS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST             
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED OUR 30-DAY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE               
WHICH SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 90 (I.E. PELKIE...LA                        
BRANCHE...STEPHENSON). EVEN MARQUETTE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90. THE                
EAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FLOW OFF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN AND MORNING CLOUDS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THUS COOLER               
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THERE.                                                
WED NIGHT...NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED             
TO HEAD UP TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE A             
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT             
THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW                
DURING THIS PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE. BY 12Z            
THU...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL DEPICT THE FRONT NEAR AITKIN MINNESOTA.             
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE            
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WARM TEMPS FROM WED SUGGESTS                
TEMPS MAY NOT DROP THAT MUCH. IN FACT...OUR BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE             
KEEPS SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW AREAS (I.E. COPPER HARBOR AND               
MARQUETTE) AT OR ABOVE 70. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE            
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD AS ANY                 
FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND WITH THE              
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.               
THU THROUGH FRI...THIS PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO             
WHEN PCPN IS GOING TO OCCUR. ON THU...MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW FROM            
NORTHERN MISSOURI TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. DEEP MOISTURE                 
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME              
HEATING COULD CONCEIVABLY GENERATE THE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME STORMS               
SEEN DOWN IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS IS WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS.               
THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IN CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE            
POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN MODELS SHOW THE            
OTHER PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS. LATEST MODEL                 
GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT              
WHETHER IT WILL BE A LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING (ECMWF/NAM) OR              
JUST A STRUNG OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY (GFS/UKMET). EITHER WAY...IT                 
SEEMS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WAIT A            
FEW MORE RUNS TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS.                                          
AFTER FRI...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE FALL-LIKE...BUT TO WHAT              
INTENSITY REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH MODELS FAIRLY INCONSISTENT BETWEEN            
EACH OTHER AND WITHIN THEMSELVES FROM RUN TO RUN. IN ANY EVENT...IT             
APPEARS TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE                 
NORTHERN U.S....WHICH SHOULD HELP DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN. SOME GFS               
AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL TO GET THEM CLOSE TO 0C...SUCH              
AS THE 12Z ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED             
OFF A LOT. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MORE NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS MRNG AS BETTER                  
FORCING IN RRQ OF UPR JET NOW MOVING N OF INL ARRIVES. COMBINATION              
OF ENHANCED UVV AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY CLOSE TO MID LVL WARM FNT              
WL GENERATE WDSPRD SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AND POTENTIALLY HVY RA AT                 
CMX/SAW DEPENDING ON WHERE AXIS OF DEEPER CNVCTN DVLPS. AS UPR JET              
PUSHES AWAY ON TUE AND UPR LVLS DRY OUT...EXPECT SHRA TO DIMINISH.              
BUT SHALLOW ESE FLOW OF MOISTENED LLVLS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WARM             
FNT LAYING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SUGS LO CLDS WL PREDOMINATE.                    
IMPROVED FCST CONDITIONS A BIT AS GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW SUB INVRN             
LYR A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS A            
WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN UPR MI. THIS WILL RESULT IN             
15 TO 25 KT ENE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WINDS BACKING E            
10 TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF. OTHERWISE...STRONGER S WINDS                    
EXPECTED MID WEEK AHEAD OF TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF DAKOTAS.              
15 TO 25 KT S TO SW WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON              
THE FAVORED EASTERN LAKE LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. WINDS SHOULD                  
REMAIN BLO 30 KT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PREVIOUS SHRA THAT IMPACTED THE NRN TIER COUNTIES DESPITE LINGERING             
DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS EARLIER HAVE WEAKENED AS PCPN MOVED TOO FAR E              
OF AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF WARM FNT FOCUSED IN MN. TRAILING              
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT DVLPD IN NOSE OF SW LLJ IN NE MN (RECENT                 
TAMDAR SDNGS FM BRD-DLH SHOW SW H85 WINDS UP TO 35 KTS) AND IN AREA             
OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN WELL N OF SFC WARM FNT IN NCNTRL MN ARE MOVING E            
THRU WRN LK SUP TOWARD THE WRN COUNTIES. AIR IN WARM SECTOR IS                  
RELATIVELY DRY...SO PARCELS HAVE HAD TO BE LIFTED TO H85 WARM FNT TO            
ACHIEVE CONDENSATION. EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO IMPACT THE NW ZNS THE              
NEXT FEW HRS...SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT EARLIER IN THAT AREA. STILL              
EXPECTING ANOTHER RUOND OF SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT OVER NE MN/WRN LK SUP              
BY 06Z AS ENHANCED DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF              
UPR JET NOW JUST E OF LK WINNIPEG OVERSPRDS THAT AREA AT NOSE OF H85            
JET/SHARP H85-7 FGEN. CORFIDI VECTORS/H85-3 THKNS LINES AND VEERING             
H85 LLJ SUG THESE SHRA WL PROPAGATE INTO THE CWA LATER AS RRQ OF THE            
UPR JET OVERSPRDS OUR CWA. STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE                  
SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT THE N HALF OF THE U.P. CLOSER TO THE SHARPER                
H85-7 FGEN AND WHERE PARCELS WL HAVE MORE TIME TO SATURATE. HVY RA              
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH CELLS TRACKING ESE OVER THE SAME             
AXIS OF FGEN...BUT H85-5 BULK SHEAR 40-50KTS SUG POTENTIAL FOR                  
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS/LARGE HAIL DESPITE MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES                
FARTHER N WHERE TS WL BE MORE ELEVATED. FCST SDNGS FOR THE SRN TIER             
ZNS...WHERE INSTABILITY FCST TO BE GREATER (SSI NR -4C)...SHOW MORE             
DRY AIR/CAPPING LINGERING THRU THE NGT. RUC FCST SDNG FOR MQT                   
INDICATES 725 J/KG CAPE AT 09Z WHEN LIFTING FM H8.                              
$$                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD WEST TO EAST RIDGE ACROSS                
MUCH OF THE CONUS WHILE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA AND FAR NORTHERN                
TIER OF CONUS IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER H5 FLOW...MORE TYPICAL OF                 
FALL. H2 JET AVERAGING AROUND 85KT IS ALLIGNED FM BRITISH COLUMBIA              
TO BASE OF TROUGH OVR QUEBEC. JET STREAK AT H2 OF 105KT IS NOTED                
OVR SASKATCHEWAN. SLOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FM EASTERN SD               
INTO SOUTHERN MN AT THE SFC TO NORTHERN ND INTO CNTRL MN AT H85 AND             
TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NE MN INTO LK SUPERIOR AT H7. NARROW LINE OF            
CONVECTION ALONG SFC FRONT...BUT THROUGH EARLY AFTN MAIN FOCUS FOR              
CONVECTION WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF H85 FRONT. WITHIN LAST COUPLE                 
HOURS CONVECTION IS NOW SURGING INTO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH SOME              
SPRINKLES AS FAR EAST AS NCNTRL UPR MI.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WHERE RAIN SETS UP TONIGHT AND HOW LONG IT                    
PERSISTS INTO TUE.                                                              
SFC FRONT TRIES TO LIFT INTO UPR MI TONIGHT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL              
JUST FALL SHORT. H85-H7 FRONTS ARE FIRMLY OVERHEAD THOUGH AND LEAD              
TO GOOD TEMP GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SHARP FGEN ZONE FM H85-H7. CROSS            
SECTIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEGATIVE EPV LOCATED JUST ABOVE FGEN             
SLOPE. LAPSE RATES IN THIS LAYER POINT TO MAINLY UPRIGHT INSTABILITY            
ALTHOUGH SOME SLANTWISE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT OVER LK SUPERIOR. AS             
BEFORE...LAYER RH IS ONLY FOCUSED IN NARROW RIBBON. FOCUSING ON                 
NORTH EDGE OF MAX FGEN LEADS TO NORTH HALF OF CWA SEEING THE BEST               
CHANCE OF RAIN. NEED TO KEEP SCT POPS IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC                
FRONT AND INFLUX OF BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. 1-6KM MUCAPES TO               
1500J/KG...1-6KM BULK SHEAR OVR 40KT...AND WBZERO HEIGHTS AROUND                
11KFT YIELD POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. LOCAL HIGH RES                
WRF-ARW INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE NARROW BAND WITH              
12 HR AMOUNTS OVR 2 INCHES. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY               
AND THE MOIST PROFILES SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH NARROW CORRIDOR            
OF CONVECTION THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. ADDED MENTION OF HVY              
RAIN WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED. FGEN AND 300-305K ISENTROPIC               
LIFT LINGERS INTO TUE...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT BAND OF                   
MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LGT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.            
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOUNCE INTO THE 70S SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE                
WARM SECTOR OF DECAYING WARM FRONT...BUT IN THE NORTH AND EAST                  
EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF LOW                 
CLOUDS/LGT PCPN/POSSIBLE FOG.                                                   
EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                        
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT TO SOUTHERN                
IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN CANADA DEEPENS OVER MANITOBA. THE HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO            
WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OUT                 
OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND                 
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY               
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE THE TRW TO            
END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXIT                
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. A               
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE                
SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT                 
DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS.              
THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. A                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL DRAW WARM AIR IN THE AREA               
PUSHING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE             
WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. THE AIR MASS LOOKS AS IF WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUSTAIN ANY                   
APPRECIABLE PRECIPTATION EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
MORE STABLE AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR              
REMAINS ENTRENCHED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO WISCONSIN                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THURSDAY.                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT                 
MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL               
JET WILL STAY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE THETA-E RIDGE AND THE MEAN             
SURFACE-500MB RH WILL EXPAND OVER THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY.                  
AVAILABLE MOSTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH              
LIGHT POPS FOR NOW.                                                             
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO                
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC PULLING THE COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP                
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK            
THROUGH THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FEED MORE SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY WITH            
SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. THERE WILL STILL A LITTLE SOME INSTABILITY.             
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.                       
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND            
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.                  
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH PRESENT TO             
CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER            
POPS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT MORE NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS MRNG AS BETTER                  
FORCING IN RRQ OF UPR JET NOW MOVING N OF INL ARRIVES. COMBINATION              
OF ENHANCED UVV AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY CLOSE TO MID LVL WARM FNT              
WL GENERATE WDSPRD SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AND POTENTIALLY HVY RA AT                 
CMX/SAW DEPENDING ON WHERE AXIS OF DEEPER CNVCTN DVLPS. AS UPR JET              
PUSHES AWAY ON TUE AND UPR LVLS DRY OUT...EXPECT SHRA TO DIMINISH.              
BUT SHALLOW ESE FLOW OF MOISTENED LLVLS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WARM             
FNT LAYING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST SUGS LO CLDS WL PREDOMINATE.                    
IMPROVED FCST CONDITIONS A BIT AS GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW SUB INVRN             
LYR A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH            
A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN UPR MI. RESULT IS ENE WINDS                
INCREASING OVR WESTERN LAKE WITH 30 KT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING              
INTO EARLY ON TUE. OTHERWISE...STRONGER S WINDS EXPECTED MID WEEK               
AHEAD OF TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF DAKOTAS. 30 KT POSSIBLE ON              
THE FAVORED EASTERN LK LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN             
BLO 30 KT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLA                                                       
EXTENDED TERM...DLG                                                             
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
131 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TEMPS/WINDS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT QUICKER AS                 
AREA OF H7 FGEN AND RIBBON OF H7 MOISTURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN                 
SECTIONS OF UPR MI. RADAR FM MN SHOWS JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS              
MOVING TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FRONT AT H85. MORE CONCENTRATED            
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVR SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO                  
ADJACENT NW ONTARIO ALONG THE H7 FRONT. ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS INTO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LATE TODAY AS SHOWERS OVR MN SHIFT                
EASTWARD WITH INITIAL SURGE OF MID LEVEL FGEN. APPEARS THAT SOME                
AREAS OF CWA WILL SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUE.                   
TROUBLE IS...THAT CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CONVECTIVE AND              
FAIRLY NARROW. BASED ON WHERE STRONGEST H85-H7 FGEN AND THE GREATEST            
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE...THINK THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA               
SEES THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS MAX QPF AXIS CENTERED IN            
THIS AREA...A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ITS 06Z PREDECESSOR.               
BASED ON LATEST DATA...CURRENT GRIDS IN FINE SHAPE WITH EXPECTED                
COVERAGE OF PCPN TONIGHT/TUE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG              
TROUGH BARRELING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE            
FOUR CORNERS UP INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...AND                    
TROUGHING OVER NE ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. WITH UPPER MICHIGAN SITUATED             
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM MINNESOTA AT THE SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY            
CLEAR WHILE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE                
HIGH BUILDING IN. SOME INLAND READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO             
MID 40S. TO THE NW...AN AREA OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE                
SEEN SPREADING SE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTHERN                         
MANITOBA...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. RADAR IMAGERY FROM             
GRAND FORKS ALSO SHOWS BANDS OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES WITHIN THESE                 
CLOUDS...THOUGH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS SEEN ON THE 00Z BIS AND INL               
SOUNDINGS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE PCPN AS VIRGA. LIGHTNING PLOTS ALSO              
INDICATE A FEW STRIKES...INDICATIVE OF SOME NEGATIVE EPV. IN THIS               
CASE AND USUAL FOR THE SUMMER...MUCH OF THE EPV IS UPRIGHT                      
INSTABILITY DUE TO 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM. THIS AREA            
OF CLOUDS IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A 90 KT JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM               
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO NW ONTARIO...IN AN AREA OF 800-600MB                  
FRONTOGENESIS...AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS            
FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA NW TO A 1007MB LOW IN SE MONTANA.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES/LOCATION AND HOW MUCH PCPN FOR            
TONIGHT AND TUE.                                                                
TODAY...MUCH OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...HIGH AND              
MID CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 90-100 KT JET              
STREAK MOVES TO JET NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID-LEVEL                        
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE U.P.. A FEW SHOWERS OR                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO TRY TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF            
THE 90-100 KT JET...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING 20 POPS. ALTHOUGH            
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AROUND 14C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE             
LOW 80S...THE INCOMING CLOUD ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KEEP                
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT.                                    
TONIGHT INTO TUE...LARGE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO                
MOVE ONSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD                      
DOWNSTREAM OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                  
CANADA. THIS BUILDING RIDGE...COMBINED WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL                     
AFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET THIS                
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA UP INTO MN...LIFTING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT               
TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...COOLER AIR OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO REMAINS STATIONARY. THE NET RESULT THEN IS TO                  
TIGHTEN UP THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...              
NORTHERN MN AND FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...THUS INCREASING ISENTROPIC                
LIFT...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET. IN                      
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN NEGATIVE EPV                
INTO THE AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR BOTH                 
UPRIGHT AND SYMMETRIC CONVECTION. THEREFORE...A FAVORABLE RAIN                  
SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE                   
MORNING WHEN ALL THREE ARE PROGGED TO BE JUXTAPOSED. THE 00Z GFS AND            
NAM HAVE SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z...WITH            
THE BROADER RESOLUTION GFS SHOWING 1-1.5 INCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW               
INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SHOWING 1.5-3                
INCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. IN BOTH MODELS...             
VERY LITTLE FALLS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND AT THE NE END OF               
THE LAKE...REALLY INDICATING HOW NARROW THIS BANDING WILL END UP.               
COMPARE THIS TO OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS WHERE ITS QPF IT HAS THE SAME            
WIDTH OF PCPN...JUST SHIFTED TO THE SW ALLOWING MARQUETTE COUNTY TO             
GET UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...ON THE OTHER                
HAND...HAS MOST OF THE QPF OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT STILL IMPACTS               
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN U.P.. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS UP            
TO 70 FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. WITH QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO             
THE GFS. BOTH POPS AND QPF WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED                    
SPATIALLY AND UP OR DOWN LATER TODAY (NEW 06Z NAM DEPICTS CONTINUED             
ISSUES WITH HIGHEST QPF AXIS NEAR WI BORDER). NO MATTER WHERE THE               
RAIN FALLS...IT WILL BE VERY HELPFUL. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE               
RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 18Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO              
00Z DUE TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.                                      
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING               
SLOWLY EAST...REACHING EASTERN IDAHO BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...UPPER            
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVER MICHIGAN BY 18Z                
WED. WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD LIFT THE SURFACE                
WARM FRONT OVER THE CWA BY 12Z WED AND THEN COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE             
AREA BY 00Z. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECT               
SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL CUMULUS                
DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT             
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 18-20C BY 18Z WED...AND WITH A 10-15            
MPH SOUTH WIND...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET QUITE                 
WARM. MET GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 90 AT IMT. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS            
TO THE GOING TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                 
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT INTO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH             
ALBERTA. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARDS                    
MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRI PER 00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN. A DRY...WARM AND               
HUMID WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA GENERALLY UNDER UPPER                 
RIDGING. HOWEVER...ON THU...THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. WITHIN                
THIS FLOW...MODELS SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN                
SOUTH TEXAS LIFTING UP ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED              
GOING CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP             
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AS HIGH AS ON WED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT                
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT             
APPROACH THE CWA. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY TOO...GIVEN A DEEP                    
TROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (850MB DEWPOINTS PROGGED            
AROUND +14C) AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE OFF TROPICAL                 
STORM HENRIETTE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SFC WARM FRONT SITS FM SOUTHERN MN INTO CNTRL WI. MEANWHILE...A WARM            
FRONT ALOFT 5000-10000 FT RUNS FM ND INTO NORTHERN MN/ADJACENT                  
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO AND INTO FAR WEST LK SUPERIOR. A DISTURBANCE               
RIDING ALONG THE WARM FRONTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED              
THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP SE TOWARD THE KEWEENAW LATE EVENING AND AFT              
MIDNIGHT AT KSAW. DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT TONIGHT THAT               
THERE COULD BE A GOOD LIGHTNING SHOW WITH THE EMBEDDED                          
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE LEAST...RAIN SHOULD FALL HEAVY OVERNIGHT AT               
EITHER OR BOTH SITES. STEADY RAIN SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT                  
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUE. FORCING FOR AT LEAST SOME LGT RAIN THEN                 
CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS BY LATE TONIGHT AND                
ESPECIALLY INTO TUE WILL BE DEVELOPING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY AS SFC               
WARM FRONT STRADDLES SOUTHERN U.P. EXPECTED E/SE WINDS FAVORS                   
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBY AT BOTH SITES. IFR FLIGHT               
CATEGORY POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR BOTH TAFS.                  
COULD EVEN SEE LOWER CONDITIONS IF DRYING ALOFT TAKES HOLD...                   
CHANGING LINGERING LGT RAIN INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SHIFT             
INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO TUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...LIGHT                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TUE AS A              
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE               
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS            
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED INTO THU. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH              
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE FRONT HAS ALL BUT WASHED OUT...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE                  
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH                 
THE TAF PERIOD. WARM FRONT SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                 
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN              
LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT AS IT               
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BENEATH NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
DYNAMIC ASCENT SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED AT BEST TODAY.               
LITTLE OR NO LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT OR QVECTOR                           
CONVERGENCE...WITH 305K TO 310K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIGHT AT BEST.               
MODEST SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE TODAY THOUGH...MAINLY THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES                 
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT             
OF CAPPING BELOW 700 MB TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.                                  
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO                 
ADVERTISE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. QPF AS PER MODELS FOR TODAY IS                 
VIRTUALLY NON EXISTENT...THOUGH 4KM NMM WRF AND RUC13 GIVE A SLIGHT             
HINT OF A LOCAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS             
A DRYING TREND ALOFT...AND SATELLITE/METAR OVERNIGHT TRENDS OF LOW TO           
MID CLOUDS IN MOISTURE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY A            
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER TODAY. SAME TRUE OF ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS                     
DEVELOPMENT AS PER AWIPS CUMULUS SCHEME.                                        
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 NORTH...AND MID 80S SOUTH             
AS SUPPORTED BY T1 TEMPERATURES.                                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
CHALLENGES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
FOR TUESDAY/THUR-SAT. BUST POTENTIAL OF MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY            
AND THURSDAY ARE ALSO A CONCERN.                                                
BY TOMORROW EVENING THE MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT AND THETA E GRADIENTS               
WILL BE ALIGNED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA                  
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ON THE                  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN VICINITY TO                  
MIDLEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARIES PLACES LAKE HURON AND PORTIONS OF                   
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER IN PRIME DOWNSTREAM LOCATION OF THE MCS ACTIVITY             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. CONVECTIVE                     
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG/NORTHERN                     
MINNESOTA APPEARS LIKELY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHARPENS IN                    
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. A ZONAL WEST TO EAST LOW              
LEVEL JET REACHING 35 KNOTS WILL FORCE ANY PRECIPITATION EAST                   
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. DESPITE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT             
ACROSS THE SOURCE REGION LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NOTHING IN THE              
WAY OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS IN THIS AREA AND IS EVEN HAVING A                    
DIFFICULT TIME GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ATTM...BELIEVE              
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH (STARTING AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT) AND LASTING FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY WILL BE                      
STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THE                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR LAKE HURON...BUT PORTIONS              
OF THE THUMB AND SAGINAW RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE A SHOT FOR SOME                 
RAINFALL MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY                     
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE             
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...SO ANY THINNING OR BREAKS TO THE CANOPY               
COULD SEND TEMPERATURES UPWARD.                                                 
THE MIDLEVEL WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD UNDER RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING               
UPPER LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW.                                                                           
THE LATEST 00Z GFS IS BACK TO THE MAJOR PHASING/STRONG SURFACE                  
CYCLOGENESIS EVENT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY PLAYERS AGAIN             
ARE THE QUASI-CUTOFF ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOME DISORGANIZED            
WAVE ENERGY SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN TEXAS...AND THE STRONG             
DYNAMIC WAVE CRASHING ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                  
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BLOCK THE WESTERLY FLOW ENOUGH            
ALLOWING FOR THE REASONABLE SOLUTION OF PHASING AND RESULTANT                   
DEEPENING. PLENTY OF TIME REMAINS TO REFINE THE FORECAST FOR THIS               
SYSTEM BUT HAVE DECIDED ON INSERTING POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY               
NIGHT. THE ADVERTISED STRONG TO INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE                 
UPPER MIDWEST WOULD ALLOW FOR THE QUICK GENERATION OF A STRONG                  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE.  EMBEDDED                
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SYNOPTIC               
SUPPORT IN GENERAL ISENTROPIC REGIME TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS AND DEBRIS                    
CLOUDINESS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME THURSDAY MAY MAKE IT TO THE STATE              
PUTTING QUESTION INTO THE NEAR 90 FORECASTED HIGHS ON THURSDAY.  FOR            
THE TIME BEING BELIEVE THE LOWERED 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A FLUKE               
AND ANTICIPATE THE WARMER RANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS. THE ECMWF IS                  
ONBOARD WITH SOME OF THESE IDEAS...BUT IS MORE SUBDUED IN THE END               
RESULT. THEREFORE...FURTHER MONITORING IS REQUIRED. HOWEVER...WILL              
CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS QUESTIONS IN              
TIMING ARE STILL VALID.                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
DESPITE A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS                       
MORNING...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SUBDUED.  HOWEVER...A                    
SOUTHWEST FETCH PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW WAVES TO REMAIN             
IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF OUTER SAGINAW BAY.                     
TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN LAKE            
HURON.  THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON             
TUESDAY GIVING THE REMAINDER OF LAKE HURON AN INCREASED THREAT.                 
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE            
ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED.  AT THIS TIME...WINDS            
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION SETS THE STAGE FOR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATER. A             
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK                   
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.  CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......CB                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1058 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TEMPS/WINDS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT QUICKER AS                 
AREA OF H7 FGEN AND RIBBON OF H7 MOISTURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN                 
SECTIONS OF UPR MI. RADAR FM MN SHOWS JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS              
MOVING TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FRONT AT H85. MORE CONCENTRATED            
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVR SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO                  
ADJACENT NW ONTARIO ALONG THE H7 FRONT. ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS INTO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LATE TODAY AS SHOWERS OVR MN SHIFT                
EASTWARD WITH INITIAL SURGE OF MID LEVEL FGEN. APPEARS THAT SOME                
AREAS OF CWA WILL SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUE.                   
TROUBLE IS...THAT CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CONVECTIVE AND              
FAIRLY NARROW. BASED ON WHERE STRONGEST H85-H7 FGEN AND THE GREATEST            
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE...THINK THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA               
SEES THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS MAX QPF AXIS CENTERED IN            
THIS AREA...A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ITS 06Z PREDECESSOR.               
BASED ON LATEST DATA...CURRENT GRIDS IN FINE SHAPE WITH EXPECTED                
COVERAGE OF PCPN TONIGHT/TUE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG              
TROUGH BARRELING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE            
FOUR CORNERS UP INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...AND                    
TROUGHING OVER NE ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. WITH UPPER MICHIGAN SITUATED             
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM MINNESOTA AT THE SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY            
CLEAR WHILE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE                
HIGH BUILDING IN. SOME INLAND READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO             
MID 40S. TO THE NW...AN AREA OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE                
SEEN SPREADING SE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTHERN                         
MANITOBA...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. RADAR IMAGERY FROM             
GRAND FORKS ALSO SHOWS BANDS OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES WITHIN THESE                 
CLOUDS...THOUGH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS SEEN ON THE 00Z BIS AND INL               
SOUNDINGS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE PCPN AS VIRGA. LIGHTNING PLOTS ALSO              
INDICATE A FEW STRIKES...INDICATIVE OF SOME NEGATIVE EPV. IN THIS               
CASE AND USUAL FOR THE SUMMER...MUCH OF THE EPV IS UPRIGHT                      
INSTABILITY DUE TO 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM. THIS AREA            
OF CLOUDS IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A 90 KT JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM               
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO NW ONTARIO...IN AN AREA OF 800-600MB                  
FRONTOGENESIS...AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS            
FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA NW TO A 1007MB LOW IN SE MONTANA.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES/LOCATION AND HOW MUCH PCPN FOR            
TONIGHT AND TUE.                                                                
TODAY...MUCH OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...HIGH AND              
MID CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 90-100 KT JET              
STREAK MOVES TO JET NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID-LEVEL                        
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE U.P.. A FEW SHOWERS OR                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO TRY TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF            
THE 90-100 KT JET...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING 20 POPS. ALTHOUGH            
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AROUND 14C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE             
LOW 80S...THE INCOMING CLOUD ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KEEP                
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT.                                    
TONIGHT INTO TUE...LARGE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO                
MOVE ONSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD                      
DOWNSTREAM OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                  
CANADA. THIS BUILDING RIDGE...COMBINED WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL                     
AFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET THIS                
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA UP INTO MN...LIFTING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT               
TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...COOLER AIR OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO REMAINS STATIONARY. THE NET RESULT THEN IS TO                  
TIGHTEN UP THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...              
NORTHERN MN AND FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...THUS INCREASING ISENTROPIC                
LIFT...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET. IN                      
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN NEGATIVE EPV                
INTO THE AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR BOTH                 
UPRIGHT AND SYMMETRIC CONVECTION. THEREFORE...A FAVORABLE RAIN                  
SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE                   
MORNING WHEN ALL THREE ARE PROGGED TO BE JUXTAPOSED. THE 00Z GFS AND            
NAM HAVE SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z...WITH            
THE BROADER RESOLUTION GFS SHOWING 1-1.5 INCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW               
INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SHOWING 1.5-3                
INCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. IN BOTH MODELS...             
VERY LITTLE FALLS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND AT THE NE END OF               
THE LAKE...REALLY INDICATING HOW NARROW THIS BANDING WILL END UP.               
COMPARE THIS TO OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS WHERE ITS QPF IT HAS THE SAME            
WIDTH OF PCPN...JUST SHIFTED TO THE SW ALLOWING MARQUETTE COUNTY TO             
GET UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...ON THE OTHER                
HAND...HAS MOST OF THE QPF OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT STILL IMPACTS               
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN U.P.. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS UP            
TO 70 FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. WITH QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO             
THE GFS. BOTH POPS AND QPF WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED                    
SPATIALLY AND UP OR DOWN LATER TODAY (NEW 06Z NAM DEPICTS CONTINUED             
ISSUES WITH HIGHEST QPF AXIS NEAR WI BORDER). NO MATTER WHERE THE               
RAIN FALLS...IT WILL BE VERY HELPFUL. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE               
RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 18Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO              
00Z DUE TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.                                      
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING               
SLOWLY EAST...REACHING EASTERN IDAHO BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...UPPER            
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVER MICHIGAN BY 18Z                
WED. WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD LIFT THE SURFACE                
WARM FRONT OVER THE CWA BY 12Z WED AND THEN COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE             
AREA BY 00Z. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECT               
SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL CUMULUS                
DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT             
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 18-20C BY 18Z WED...AND WITH A 10-15            
MPH SOUTH WIND...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET QUITE                 
WARM. MET GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 90 AT IMT. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS            
TO THE GOING TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                 
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT INTO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH             
ALBERTA. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARDS                    
MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRI PER 00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN. A DRY...WARM AND               
HUMID WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA GENERALLY UNDER UPPER                 
RIDGING. HOWEVER...ON THU...THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. WITHIN                
THIS FLOW...MODELS SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN                
SOUTH TEXAS LIFTING UP ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED              
GOING CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP             
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AS HIGH AS ON WED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT                
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT             
APPROACH THE CWA. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY TOO...GIVEN A DEEP                    
TROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (850MB DEWPOINTS PROGGED            
AROUND +14C) AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE OFF TROPICAL                 
STORM HENRIETTE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH VERY DRY AIR ENTRENCHED BELOW            
700 MB. ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO THE N OF WARM FRONT               
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID                   
CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING            
THROUGH ONTARIO AND INFLUENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES             
MAY ARRIVE LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AT KCMX...BUT DRYNESS OF LOW              
LEVELS SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE FGEN FORCING AND                
STRENGTH OF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BAND              
OR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING. THE RAINFALL            
MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO DROP CIGS/VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO TSRA              
WERE MENTIONED FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE OF                     
CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR TSRA               
MAY DEVELOP.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SHIFT             
INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO TUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...LIGHT                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TUE AS A              
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE               
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS            
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED INTO THU. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH              
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
738 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL                 
BRIEF CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET THIS MORNING AT KMBS/KFNT WITH                    
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CLOUD LAYERS              
AROUND 45 HUNDRED AND 8K FEET TODAY...THE LOWER LAYER PARTLY OF                 
DIURNAL ORIGIN. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CEILING LAYER EXPECTED TO              
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN PRESENCE OF                 
DYNAMIC ASCENT. SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                              
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT AS IT               
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BENEATH NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
DYNAMIC ASCENT SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED AT BEST TODAY.               
LITTLE OR NO LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT OR QVECTOR                           
CONVERGENCE...WITH 305K TO 310K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIGHT AT BEST.               
MODEST SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE TODAY THOUGH...MAINLY THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES                 
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT             
OF CAPPING BELOW 700 MB TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.                                  
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO                 
ADVERTISE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. QPF AS PER MODELS FOR TODAY IS                 
VIRTUALLY NON EXISTENT...THOUGH 4KM NMM WRF AND RUC13 GIVE A SLIGHT             
HINT OF A LOCAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS             
A DRYING TREND ALOFT...AND SATELLITE/METAR OVERNIGHT TRENDS OF LOW TO           
MID CLOUDS IN MOISTURE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY A            
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER TODAY. SAME TRUE OF ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS                     
DEVELOPMENT AS PER AWIPS CUMULUS SCHEME.                                        
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 NORTH...AND MID 80S SOUTH             
AS SUPPORTED BY T1 TEMPERATURES.                                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
CHALLENGES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
FOR TUESDAY/THUR-SAT. BUST POTENTIAL OF MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY            
AND THURSDAY ARE ALSO A CONCERN.                                                
BY TOMORROW EVENING THE MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT AND THETA E GRADIENTS               
WILL BE ALIGNED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA                  
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ON THE                  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN VICINITY TO                  
MIDLEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARIES PLACES LAKE HURON AND PORTIONS OF                   
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER IN PRIME DOWNSTREAM LOCATION OF THE MCS ACTIVITY             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. CONVECTIVE                     
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG/NORTHERN                     
MINNESOTA APPEARS LIKELY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHARPENS IN                    
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. A ZONAL WEST TO EAST LOW              
LEVEL JET REACHING 35 KNOTS WILL FORCE ANY PRECIPITATION EAST                   
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. DESPITE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT             
ACROSS THE SOURCE REGION LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NOTHING IN THE              
WAY OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS IN THIS AREA AND IS EVEN HAVING A                    
DIFFICULT TIME GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ATTM...BELIEVE              
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH (STARTING AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT) AND LASTING FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY WILL BE                      
STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THE                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR LAKE HURON...BUT PORTIONS              
OF THE THUMB AND SAGINAW RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE A SHOT FOR SOME                 
RAINFALL MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY                     
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE             
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...SO ANY THINNING OR BREAKS TO THE CANOPY               
COULD SEND TEMPERATURES UPWARD.                                                 
THE MIDLEVEL WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD UNDER RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING               
UPPER LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW.                                                                           
THE LATEST 00Z GFS IS BACK TO THE MAJOR PHASING/STRONG SURFACE                  
CYCLOGENESIS EVENT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY PLAYERS AGAIN             
ARE THE QUASI-CUTOFF ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOME DISORGANIZED            
WAVE ENERGY SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN TEXAS...AND THE STRONG             
DYNAMIC WAVE CRASHING ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                  
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BLOCK THE WESTERLY FLOW ENOUGH            
ALLOWING FOR THE REASONABLE SOLUTION OF PHASING AND RESULTANT                   
DEEPENING. PLENTY OF TIME REMAINS TO REFINE THE FORECAST FOR THIS               
SYSTEM BUT HAVE DECIDED ON INSERTING POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY               
NIGHT. THE ADVERTISED STRONG TO INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE                 
UPPER MIDWEST WOULD ALLOW FOR THE QUICK GENERATION OF A STRONG                  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE.  EMBEDDED                
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SYNOPTIC               
SUPPORT IN GENERAL ISENTROPIC REGIME TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS AND DEBRIS                    
CLOUDINESS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME THURSDAY MAY MAKE IT TO THE STATE              
PUTTING QUESTION INTO THE NEAR 90 FORECASTED HIGHS ON THURSDAY.  FOR            
THE TIME BEING BELIEVE THE LOWERED 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A FLUKE               
AND ANTICIPATE THE WARMER RANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS. THE ECMWF IS                  
ONBOARD WITH SOME OF THESE IDEAS...BUT IS MORE SUBDUED IN THE END               
RESULT. THEREFORE...FURTHER MONITORING IS REQUIRED. HOWEVER...WILL              
CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS QUESTIONS IN              
TIMING ARE STILL VALID.                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
DESPITE A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS                       
MORNING...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SUBDUED.  HOWEVER...A                    
SOUTHWEST FETCH PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW WAVES TO REMAIN             
IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF OUTER SAGINAW BAY.                     
TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN LAKE            
HURON.  THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON             
TUESDAY GIVING THE REMAINDER OF LAKE HURON AN INCREASED THREAT.                 
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE            
ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED.  AT THIS TIME...WINDS            
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION SETS THE STAGE FOR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATER. A             
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK                   
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.  CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....DWD                                                                
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......CB                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG              
TROUGH BARRELING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE            
FOUR CORNERS UP INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...AND                    
TROUGHING OVER NE ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. WITH UPPER MICHIGAN SITUATED             
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM MINNESOTA AT THE SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY            
CLEAR WHILE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE                
HIGH BUILDING IN. SOME INLAND READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO             
MID 40S. TO THE NW...AN AREA OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE                
SEEN SPREADING SE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTHERN                         
MANITOBA...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. RADAR IMAGERY FROM             
GRAND FORKS ALSO SHOWS BANDS OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES WITHIN THESE                 
CLOUDS...THOUGH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS SEEN ON THE 00Z BIS AND INL               
SOUNDINGS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE PCPN AS VIRGA. LIGHTNING PLOTS ALSO              
INDICATE A FEW STRIKES...INDICATIVE OF SOME NEGATIVE EPV. IN THIS               
CASE AND USUAL FOR THE SUMMER...MUCH OF THE EPV IS UPRIGHT                      
INSTABILITY DUE TO 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM. THIS AREA            
OF CLOUDS IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A 90 KT JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM               
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO NW ONTARIO...IN AN AREA OF 800-600MB                  
FRONTOGENESIS...AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS            
FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA NW TO A 1007MB LOW IN SE MONTANA.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES/LOCATION AND HOW MUCH PCPN FOR            
TONIGHT AND TUE.                                                                
TODAY...MUCH OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CWA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...HIGH AND              
MID CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 90-100 KT JET              
STREAK MOVES TO JET NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID-LEVEL                        
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE U.P.. A FEW SHOWERS OR                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO TRY TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF            
THE 90-100 KT JET...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING 20 POPS. ALTHOUGH            
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AROUND 14C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE             
LOW 80S...THE INCOMING CLOUD ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KEEP                
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT.                                    
TONIGHT INTO TUE...LARGE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO                
MOVE ONSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD                      
DOWNSTREAM OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                  
CANADA. THIS BUILDING RIDGE...COMBINED WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL                     
AFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET THIS                
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA UP INTO MN...LIFTING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT               
TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...COOLER AIR OVER                
NORTHERN ONTARIO REMAINS STATIONARY. THE NET RESULT THEN IS TO                  
TIGHTEN UP THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...              
NORTHERN MN AND FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...THUS INCREASING ISENTROPIC                
LIFT...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET. IN                      
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN NEGATIVE EPV                
INTO THE AREA WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR BOTH                 
UPRIGHT AND SYMMETRIC CONVECTION. THEREFORE...A FAVORABLE RAIN                  
SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE                   
MORNING WHEN ALL THREE ARE PROGGED TO BE JUXTAPOSED. THE 00Z GFS AND            
NAM HAVE SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z...WITH            
THE BROADER RESOLUTION GFS SHOWING 1-1.5 INCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW               
INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SHOWING 1.5-3                
INCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. IN BOTH MODELS...             
VERY LITTLE FALLS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND AT THE NE END OF               
THE LAKE...REALLY INDICATING HOW NARROW THIS BANDING WILL END UP.               
COMPARE THIS TO OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS WHERE ITS QPF IT HAS THE SAME            
WIDTH OF PCPN...JUST SHIFTED TO THE SW ALLOWING MARQUETTE COUNTY TO             
GET UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN...ON THE OTHER                
HAND...HAS MOST OF THE QPF OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT STILL IMPACTS               
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN U.P.. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS UP            
TO 70 FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. WITH QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO             
THE GFS. BOTH POPS AND QPF WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED                    
SPATIALLY AND UP OR DOWN LATER TODAY (NEW 06Z NAM DEPICTS CONTINUED             
ISSUES WITH HIGHEST QPF AXIS NEAR WI BORDER). NO MATTER WHERE THE               
RAIN FALLS...IT WILL BE VERY HELPFUL. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE               
RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 18Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO              
00Z DUE TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.                                      
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING               
SLOWLY EAST...REACHING EASTERN IDAHO BY 00Z THU. AS A RESULT...UPPER            
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVER MICHIGAN BY 18Z                
WED. WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD LIFT THE SURFACE                
WARM FRONT OVER THE CWA BY 12Z WED AND THEN COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE             
AREA BY 00Z. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...EXPECT               
SKIES TO CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL CUMULUS                
DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT             
SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 18-20C BY 18Z WED...AND WITH A 10-15            
MPH SOUTH WIND...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET QUITE                 
WARM. MET GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 90 AT IMT. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS            
TO THE GOING TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                 
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT INTO            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH             
ALBERTA. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARDS                    
MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRI PER 00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN. A DRY...WARM AND               
HUMID WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA GENERALLY UNDER UPPER                 
RIDGING. HOWEVER...ON THU...THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. WITHIN                
THIS FLOW...MODELS SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN                
SOUTH TEXAS LIFTING UP ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED              
GOING CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP             
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AS HIGH AS ON WED. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT                
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ON THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT             
APPROACH THE CWA. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY TOO...GIVEN A DEEP                    
TROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (850MB DEWPOINTS PROGGED            
AROUND +14C) AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE OFF TROPICAL                 
STORM HENRIETTE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH VERY DRY AIR ENTRENCHED BELOW            
700 MB. ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO THE N OF WARM FRONT               
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID                   
CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING            
THROUGH ONTARIO AND INFLUENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES             
MAY ARRIVE LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AT KCMX...BUT DRYNESS OF LOW              
LEVELS SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE FGEN FORCING AND                
STRENGTH OF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BAND              
OR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING. THE RAINFALL            
MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO DROP CIGS/VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. NO TSRA              
WERE MENTIONED FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLD COVERAGE OF                     
CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR TSRA               
MAY DEVELOP.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SHIFT             
INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO TUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...LIGHT                   
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TUE AS A              
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE               
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS            
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED INTO THU. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH              
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...AJ                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
411 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH WASH OUT AS IT               
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BENEATH NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
DYNAMIC ASCENT SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED AT BEST TODAY.               
LITTLE OR NO LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT OR QVECTOR                           
CONVERGENCE...WITH 305K TO 310K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIGHT AT BEST.               
MODEST SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE TODAY THOUGH...MAINLY THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES                 
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT             
OF CAPPING BELOW 700 MB TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.                                  
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY...AS MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO                 
ADVERTISE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. QPF AS PER MODELS FOR TODAY IS                 
VIRTUALLY NON EXISTENT...THOUGH 4KM NMM WRF AND RUC13 GIVE A SLIGHT             
HINT OF A LOCAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS             
A DRYING TREND ALOFT...AND SATELLITE/METAR OVERNIGHT TRENDS OF LOW TO           
MID CLOUDS IN MOISTURE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT WOULD SUPPORT ONLY A            
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER TODAY. SAME TRUE OF ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS                     
DEVELOPMENT AS PER AWIPS CUMULUS SCHEME.                                        
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 NORTH...AND MID 80S SOUTH             
AS SUPPORTED BY T1 TEMPERATURES.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
CHALLENGES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
FOR TUESDAY/THUR-SAT. BUST POTENTIAL OF MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY            
AND THURSDAY ARE ALSO A CONCERN.                                                
BY TOMORROW EVENING THE MIDLEVEL COLD FRONT AND THETA E GRADIENTS               
WILL BE ALIGNED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA                  
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ON THE                  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN VICINITY TO                  
MIDLEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARIES PLACES LAKE HURON AND PORTIONS OF                   
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER IN PRIME DOWNSTREAM LOCATION OF THE MCS ACTIVITY             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. CONVECTIVE                     
INITIATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG/NORTHERN                     
MINNESOTA APPEARS LIKELY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHARPENS IN                    
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. A ZONAL WEST TO EAST LOW              
LEVEL JET REACHING 35 KNOTS WILL FORCE ANY PRECIPITATION EAST                   
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. DESPITE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT             
ACROSS THE SOURCE REGION LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NOTHING IN THE              
WAY OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS IN THIS AREA AND IS EVEN HAVING A                    
DIFFICULT TIME GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ATTM...BELIEVE              
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH (STARTING AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT) AND LASTING FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY WILL BE                      
STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THE                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR LAKE HURON...BUT PORTIONS              
OF THE THUMB AND SAGINAW RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE A SHOT FOR SOME                 
RAINFALL MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY                     
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE             
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...SO ANY THINNING OR BREAKS TO THE CANOPY               
COULD SEND TEMPERATURES UPWARD.                                                 
THE MIDLEVEL WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD UNDER RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING               
UPPER LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY              
FLOW.                                                                           
THE LATEST 00Z GFS IS BACK TO THE MAJOR PHASING/STRONG SURFACE                  
CYCLOGENESIS EVENT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY PLAYERS AGAIN             
ARE THE QUASI-CUTOFF ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOME DISORGANIZED            
WAVE ENERGY SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN TEXAS...AND THE STRONG             
DYNAMIC WAVE CRASHING ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                  
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BLOCK THE WESTERLY FLOW ENOUGH            
ALLOWING FOR THE REASONABLE SOLUTION OF PHASING AND RESULTANT                   
DEEPENING. PLENTY OF TIME REMAINS TO REFINE THE FORECAST FOR THIS               
SYSTEM BUT HAVE DECIDED ON INSERTING POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY               
NIGHT. THE ADVERTISED STRONG TO INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE                 
UPPER MIDWEST WOULD ALLOW FOR THE QUICK GENERATION OF A STRONG                  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE.  EMBEDDED                
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SYNOPTIC               
SUPPORT IN GENERAL ISENTROPIC REGIME TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS AND DEBRIS                    
CLOUDINESS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME THURSDAY MAY MAKE IT TO THE STATE              
PUTTING QUESTION INTO THE NEAR 90 FORECASTED HIGHS ON THURSDAY.  FOR            
THE TIME BEING BELIEVE THE LOWERED 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A FLUKE               
AND ANTICIPATE THE WARMER RANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS. THE ECMWF IS                  
ONBOARD WITH SOME OF THESE IDEAS...BUT IS MORE SUBDUED IN THE END               
RESULT. THEREFORE...FURTHER MONITORING IS REQUIRED. HOWEVER...WILL              
CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS QUESTIONS IN              
TIMING ARE STILL VALID.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
DESPITE A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS                       
MORNING...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SUBDUED.  HOWEVER...A                    
SOUTHWEST FETCH PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW WAVES TO REMAIN             
IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF OUTER SAGINAW BAY.                     
TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN LAKE            
HURON.  THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ON             
TUESDAY GIVING THE REMAINDER OF LAKE HURON AN INCREASED THREAT.                 
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE            
ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED.  AT THIS TIME...WINDS            
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION SETS THE STAGE FOR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATER. A             
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK                   
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.  CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 110 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN SE MICHIGAN DESPITE A COLD FRONT THAT            
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.            
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF               
THIS WEAK BOUNDARY AND A MODEST WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, BUT            
IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH MBS              
AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD TO DETROIT BY EARLY                    
AFTERNOON WHILE WASHING OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. WIND SPEED WILL BE             
MODEST IN AVERAGING 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE                
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS BECOME                
FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE HURON.                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......CB                                                                 
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE                 
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON LABOR DAY.                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...A                   
FLATTEN RIDGE OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE             
WEST COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THIS             
RIDGE ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE OVER SOUTHERN                
MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH              
NORTH CENTRAL U.P. INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS FIRED OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT SYSTEM AND WHERE THERE IS NOT AS MUCH OF             
A CAP AS OVER THE LAND MASS.                                                    
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST               
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS CENTRAL              
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY COOL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA                 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SKIES OVER THE AREA. RADIATIONAL                
COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO               
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWAS AND ONLY INTO THE               
MID 50S EAST.                                                                   
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE ON MONDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER            
HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. GFS/ECMWF/NAM SHOW WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THIS RIDGE AND THROUGH LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE OHIO RIVER             
VALLEY...WHILE A 1015MB HIGH FLOATS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                  
REGION. TO THE WEST ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL            
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OUT OF               
CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER             
AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH. THUS                      
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                          
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY NIGHT.                  
SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS                  
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER               
MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE                 
DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE HIGH OVER THE FORECAST            
AREA WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO.                      
ISENTROPIC ACCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL                
SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE EXIT REGION OF AN               
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE                  
AREA.                                                                           
ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW WILL RELOCATE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO                  
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE OVER                       
MANITOBA...WHILE THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES ASHORE IN THE VICINITY OF THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. AND               
LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY                    
STATIONARY OVER WISCONSIN...WHILE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA WILL BE WEAKEN. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EAST.               
THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.                
THESE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY DUE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER               
LAKE SUPERIOR TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH ANY RAINS THAT               
DEVELOP.                                                                        
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.            
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH                
OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                      
OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SO WILL END THE SHOWERS.           
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PAIR OF WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND                
Q-VECTOR ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                       
HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF                       
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FEED ANY SHOWERS. THUS WILL KEEP               
ONLY LOW POPS IN PLACE.                                                         
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT             
AND MOVE TO EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP                   
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES INTO             
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA              
BY LATE THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL            
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
SPREADING ACROSS THE U.P. ON THURSDAY.                                          
GFS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE                   
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SHORTWAVE            
WEAK. BOTH MODELS AGREE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY            
FRIDAY MORNING AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY                 
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ACCOMPANYING DEEP MOISTURE AND                   
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT              
AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.                                                     
THE SHORTWAVES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.            
ECMWF IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BY 00Z SUNDAY.             
ECMWF CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO WASHOUT AND A SECONDARY FRONT TO                   
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND A HIGH CENTER BUILDING OVER SASKATCHEWAN.             
WHEREAS...GFS BUILDS A HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION                   
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NCEP ENSEMBLE                  
AGREES WITH GFS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT HAS THE HIGH A LITTLE             
FARTHER WEST OVER MANITOBA. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO                
WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE AND FAVOR THE FLATTER ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FRIDAY            
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD WITH INFLUX OF VERY DRY              
AIR TO THE NW. ARRIVAL OF MID LVL FGEN TMRW TO THE N OF WARM FNT                
STRETCHING ACRS CNTRL MN/WI WL RESULT IN INCRSG MID CLD AS LLVL FLOW            
VEERS TO THE NE WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING THRU ONTARIO AND LK BREEZE              
INFLUENCE. SOME SHRA MAY ARRIVE TMRW EVNG AT CMX...BUT DRYNESS OF               
LLVLS SUGS CONDITIONS WL REMAIN VFR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS TO 25 KT WILL SHIFT NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BLO 20 KT             
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.                  
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS ON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH            
WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED INTO               
THU. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS                   
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
MARINE...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
934 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONE MORE UPDATE TO SPREAD CLOUDS FARTHER WEST INTO BRAINERD                     
LAKES/WALKER AREAS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007/                          
UPDATED TO ADD FOG AND DRIZZLE MAINLY NR LK SUPERIOR.                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007/                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CLOUD TREND. STRATUS DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE               
NORTHLAND...NORTH OF LINE FROM CENTRAL KOOCHICHING COUNTY THROUGH               
EASTERN AITKIN COUNTY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SATL LOOP              
SHWS THE CLOUDS ERODING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND EXPANDING IN THE               
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT EROSION TO END. RUC                
SUPPORTS THIS TREND.                                                            
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON VSBY TRENDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NR LK              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WFNT STILL STRETCHED OUT W-E ACRS OUR CWA. SOME CU EVIDENT ALG THE              
BNDRY...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOS AND APPROACHING UPR LVL RIDGE                 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART. UPR LVL RIDGE SPENDS MOST             
OF WED TRANSITING THE WRN GRT LKS FOR DRY FCST...THEN SWLY FLOW                 
REGIME RESUMES BRINGING A SERIES OF S/WVS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH            
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF LATE THU INTO FRI. A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW IS            
GENERATED...WITH AN INITIAL WFNT PASSING THRU OUR AREA LATE THU. DRY            
SLOT WILL MAKE FCST A BIT TRICKY AT THAT POINT...BUT CFNT QUICKLY               
SWEEPS THRU EARLY FRI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION FRI            
NIGHT/EARLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG UPR LVL TROF SWINGS ACRS THE              
NRN PLAINS TWRD THE WRN GRT LKS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS ON              
SAT. EARLY PART OF NXT WEEK LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM DUE TO LARGE              
MODEL DIFFS. SMALL TWEAKS TO GRIDS WERE MADE...MAINLY FOR                       
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND POPS. NOTHING MAJOR.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...WITH             
LIFR/IFR ALONG NORTH SHORE AND MVFR INLAND.NARROW AREA OF CONVECTIVE            
GROWTH ALIGNED WITH 85H THETAE AXIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF TRW AS IT                
SLIDES SOUTH REMAINDER OF DAY..MAINLY DLH SOUTHWARD. SFC WARM                   
FRONT... STILL SOUTH OF CWA... WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. WITH SUNSET             
SHOULD SEE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS DECK FARTHER SOUTH. BR/FG LIKELY            
OVERNIGHT AS BDRY MOVES NORTH AND SFC WINDS SLACKEN/LLJ INCREASES.              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  82  63  76 /  10  10  10  50                                           
INL  58  84  61  72 /  10  10  40  50                                           
BRD  63  87  64  78 /  10  10  10  60                                           
HYR  60  88  66  82 /  10  10  10  30                                           
ASX  58  87  64  78 /  10  10  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-              
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147.                          
$$                                                                              
CLC/TL                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
756 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO ADD FOG AND DRIZZLE MAINLY NR LK SUPERIOR.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CLOUD TREND. STRATUS DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE               
NORTHLAND...NORTH OF LINE FROM CENTRAL KOOCHICHING COUNTY THROUGH               
EASTERN AITKIN COUNTY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SATL LOOP              
SHWS THE CLOUDS ERODING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND EXPANDING IN THE               
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT EROSION TO END. RUC                
SUPPORTS THIS TREND.                                                            
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON VSBY TRENDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NR LK              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WFNT STILL STRETCHED OUT W-E ACRS OUR CWA. SOME CU EVIDENT ALG THE              
BNDRY...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOS AND APPROACHING UPR LVL RIDGE                 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART. UPR LVL RIDGE SPENDS MOST             
OF WED TRANSITING THE WRN GRT LKS FOR DRY FCST...THEN SWLY FLOW                 
REGIME RESUMES BRINGING A SERIES OF S/WVS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH            
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF LATE THU INTO FRI. A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW IS            
GENERATED...WITH AN INITIAL WFNT PASSING THRU OUR AREA LATE THU. DRY            
SLOT WILL MAKE FCST A BIT TRICKY AT THAT POINT...BUT CFNT QUICKLY               
SWEEPS THRU EARLY FRI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION FRI            
NIGHT/EARLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG UPR LVL TROF SWINGS ACRS THE              
NRN PLAINS TWRD THE WRN GRT LKS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS ON              
SAT. EARLY PART OF NXT WEEK LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM DUE TO LARGE              
MODEL DIFFS. SMALL TWEAKS TO GRIDS WERE MADE...MAINLY FOR                       
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND POPS. NOTHING MAJOR.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...WITH             
LIFR/IFR ALONG NORTH SHORE AND MVFR INLAND.NARROW AREA OF CONVECTIVE            
GROWTH ALIGNED WITH 85H THETAE AXIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF TRW AS IT                
SLIDES SOUTH REMAINDER OF DAY..MAINLY DLH SOUTHWARD. SFC WARM                   
FRONT... STILL SOUTH OF CWA... WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. WITH SUNSET             
SHOULD SEE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS DECK FARTHER SOUTH. BR/FG LIKELY            
OVERNIGHT AS BDRY MOVES NORTH AND SFC WINDS SLACKEN/LLJ INCREASES.              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  82  63  76 /  10  10  10  50                                           
INL  58  84  61  72 /  10  10  40  50                                           
BRD  63  87  64  78 /  10  10  10  60                                           
HYR  60  88  66  82 /  10  10  10  30                                           
ASX  58  87  64  78 /  10  10  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-              
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147.                          
$$                                                                              
CLC/TL                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
714 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CLOUD TREND. STRATUS DECK ENTRENCHED OVER THE               
NORTHLAND...NORTH OF LINE FROM CENTRAL KOOCHICHING COUNTY THROUGH               
EASTERN AITKIN COUNTY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SATL LOOP              
SHWS THE CLOUDS ERODING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND EXPANDING IN THE               
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT EROSION TO END. RUC                
SUPPORTS THIS TREND.                                                            
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON VSBY TRENDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY NR LK              
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WFNT STILL STRETCHED OUT W-E ACRS OUR CWA. SOME CU EVIDENT ALG THE              
BNDRY...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOS AND APPROACHING UPR LVL RIDGE                 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART. UPR LVL RIDGE SPENDS MOST             
OF WED TRANSITING THE WRN GRT LKS FOR DRY FCST...THEN SWLY FLOW                 
REGIME RESUMES BRINGING A SERIES OF S/WVS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH            
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF LATE THU INTO FRI. A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW IS            
GENERATED...WITH AN INITIAL WFNT PASSING THRU OUR AREA LATE THU. DRY            
SLOT WILL MAKE FCST A BIT TRICKY AT THAT POINT...BUT CFNT QUICKLY               
SWEEPS THRU EARLY FRI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION FRI            
NIGHT/EARLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG UPR LVL TROF SWINGS ACRS THE              
NRN PLAINS TWRD THE WRN GRT LKS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS ON              
SAT. EARLY PART OF NXT WEEK LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM DUE TO LARGE              
MODEL DIFFS. SMALL TWEAKS TO GRIDS WERE MADE...MAINLY FOR                       
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND POPS. NOTHING MAJOR.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...WITH             
LIFR/IFR ALONG NORTH SHORE AND MVFR INLAND.NARROW AREA OF CONVECTIVE            
GROWTH ALIGNED WITH 85H THETAE AXIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF TRW AS IT                
SLIDES SOUTH REMAINDER OF DAY..MAINLY DLH SOUTHWARD. SFC WARM                   
FRONT... STILL SOUTH OF CWA... WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. WITH SUNSET             
SHOULD SEE EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS DECK FARTHER SOUTH. BR/FG LIKELY            
OVERNIGHT AS BDRY MOVES NORTH AND SFC WINDS SLACKEN/LLJ INCREASES.              
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  57  82  63  76 /  10  10  10  50                                           
INL  58  84  61  72 /  10  10  40  50                                           
BRD  63  87  64  78 /  10  10  10  60                                           
HYR  60  88  66  82 /  10  10  10  30                                           
ASX  58  87  64  78 /  10  10  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-              
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147.                          
$$                                                                              
CLC                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
943 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES ATTM. AS PER SPC MCD...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE                
IN COVERAGE TNT OVR ARROWHEAD AS 35 KT LOLVL JET INTERACTS WITH                 
SFC FRONT. RUC SHOW STRONG 850 MB FRONT-GENESIS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF              
THE NIGHT...AND THERE IS STILL STRONG IN THE ARROWHEAD LEADING TO               
MORE TSTMS...WILL LEAVE FCST AS IS.                                             
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON KDLH AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AREAS.                 
OFF LAKE WINDS COULD PUT US IN THE FOG AND DRIZZLE MODE. WILL TAKE              
A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT SCENARIO.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2007/                          
SCT SHRA/TS OCCURRING ATTM N OF A FNTL BNDRY ACRS SRN MN/WI. THIS               
BNDRY EXPECTED TO EDGE NWD TNGT AS A WFNT. THERMALLY CAPPED ATMOS               
AND LACK OF ABUNDANT MSTR WILL LIMIT SVR PROBABILITIES...BUT SLY 30             
KT 850 MB JET INTERSECTING THE FNT COULD PROVIDE ENUF LIFT TO                   
PRODUCE SOME ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE               
EVE HRS. SEE SWODY1 DISC FOR MORE DETAILS. LTL CHG NEEDED TO                    
ONGOING FCST. AFTER THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF DRY PD ON WED                
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS...THEN LOW POPS FOR THE REST OF THE                 
WEEK AS A SERIES OF S/WVS TRANSIT THE AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW                   
ALOFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THU NIGHT/FRI AS A DEEPER MORE WELL            
DEFINED UPR TROF SWINGS ACRS THE THE UPPER GRT LKS REGION. ONLY                 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PDS OF THE FCST.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCT TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND                             
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL               
DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFT 06Z TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR AND AREAS OF LIGHT             
FOG. LCL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND DLH BTWN 06-14Z DUE TO A               
GUSTY NE WIND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                             
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  54  67  57  82 /  50  20  10  10                                           
INL  51  76  58  84 /  60  10  10  10                                           
BRD  61  85  62  87 /  20  10  10  10                                           
HYR  58  81  60  88 /  20  20  10  10                                           
ASX  57  71  58  87 /  60  30  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ141-            
     LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148-LSZ162.                   
$$                                                                              
CLC                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
351 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MSAS ANALYSIS FEATURES COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF CWA...STRETCHING                
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SRN MN...WEST TO AN AREA OF LOW                
PRESS OVER ERN MT. BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESS AT SFC IS BUILDING SOUTH                
FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS VICINITY. A SHORTWAVE...IN BRISK WESTERLY                
MID LVL FLOW...IS RACING ACROSS SRN MB WITH SOME WEAK RADAR                     
RETURNS INDICATED ON DRYDEN RADAR.RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN AREA OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH U/L JET MAY BE ENHANCING LIFT. AN AREA               
OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG ND/MB BORDER AND              
IS TRANSLATING EASTWARD. MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING FROM ND EAST               
INTO WRN PART OF CWA. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/LOW SFC T/TD                      
DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED SOME FOG TO FORM OVER ERN EDGE OF CWA.                 
SHORTWAVE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TODAY WITH               
AN AREA OF SFC/85/70H FRTGNSIS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF CWA. LL                   
MOISTURE IS LACKING SO DESPITE FORCING POPS ARE HARD TO COME BY.                
BOTH GFS/NAM INCREASE 85H TD RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN                   
CORNER OF CWA HOWEVER MID LVL WARMING SIMULTANEOUSLY SHOULD                     
INHIBIT CONVECTION. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A                             
SLOWER...FARTHER NORTH TREND IN PRECIP EVOLUTION COMPARED TO                    
PREVIOUS FCST.CONSEQUENTLY WILL USE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND PUSH                  
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FROM NRN CWA EAST AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH                
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH 21Z...AND NOW 3Z SREF SUGGEST                  
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/DEEP MSTR WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST OF               
THE NRN CWA...FROM THE FALLS EAST TO THE ARROWHEAD.LOWEST POPS                  
ACROSS SRN/SERN CWA.                                                            
MOST OF THE ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY               
TUESDAY. HOWEVER GFS SUGGEST 85H SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH LINGERING               
85/50H OMEGA MAY ALLOW SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS ERN CWA.GFS                 
COOLS 100/85H THICKNESS LAYER AS 85H TRAJECTORY REMAINS SOUTHWEST               
AT 10 TO 20KTS...IMPLYING DECENT SATURATION.CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER                
INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF ERN CWA.                                            
EXTENDED...INTERESTING PATTERN AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF                 
CWA WEDNESDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR INFLUX OF SIGNIFICANT PWS.                 
WARM AND MUGGY AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION.BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A              
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO              
EARLY TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...GFS FCST INCLUDES 85H MSTR FLUX                
ANOMALIES OF 3 TO 5 S.D. ABOVE AVERAGE. HOPEFULLY SOME MUCH NEEDED              
RAIN WILL RESULT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY...HOWEVER LCL            
BR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS            
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE              
CANADIAN BORDER BY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND                  
AFFECT THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF MN THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO TURN OUT OF THE EAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE A MVFR/IFR DECK              
OF CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  71  54  74  57 /  10  50  20  10                                           
INL  70  51  76  58 /  60  60  10  10                                           
BRD  81  61  85  62 /  10  20  10  10                                           
HYR  80  58  81  60 /  10  20  20  10                                           
ASX  74  57  76  58 /  10  60  30  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/BERDES                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1153 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WORDING. RAIN HAS NOT QUITE              
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING LIKE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS PLENTY OF             
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING             
PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE OUT MORNING FOR NOW. A FEW SHOWERS               
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT NOT                    
EXPECTING ANYTHING TO MEASURE AT THIS POINT. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY IN           
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING WEST OF I-55                
LIKELY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST              
AND MAINTAINED LOWER POPS...BACKED OFF A LITTLE FOR THE                         
SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WERE FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY OR                  
SOMETHING AND SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE RUC SUGGESTS                
THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE OVER             
ARK AND THE AXIS EXTENDING INTO MS. WHATEVER THE CASE...THE WESTERN             
ZONES STILL LOOK FOR FAVORABLE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...SO                    
MAINTAINED THE HIGHER POPS...FOR NOW MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY GO                
AROUND THE RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.               
TEMPS SEEMED OK...DID NOT LOWER AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE              
CLOUDS ALL OVER THE CWA...THERE WERE SOME BREAKS. TEMPS WERE IN THE             
LOWER AND MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SO TEMPS NEAR 90 SEEM                  
REASONABLE. OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                 
TWEAKED...THE POPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DELAY IN THE DRY            
AIR. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS OK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW                      
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT             
EXPECTING ANY REAL OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES BEFORE 21Z. SCATTERED           
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3                     
MILES...OCCASIONALLY LESS...ESPECIALLY FOR GLH/GWO. HOWEVER THE REST            
OF THE SITES MAY SEE A FEW STORMS ALSO WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS. WILL            
MAINTAIN VICINITY WORDING THROUGH 21Z AND CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUPS             
FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. NOT SURE HOW              
MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
BRING IN MOISTURE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO REAL                
CEILINGS. WITH CIRRUS BLOWING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...HIGH                
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT STRATUS MOVING IN           
LATE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       89  69  90  70 /  43  26  41  24                                  
MERIDIAN      92  65  91  69 /  19  14  17  12                                  
VICKSBURG     89  70  89  70 /  58  38  55  36                                  
HATTIESBURG   91  69  93  70 /  35  17  23  19                                  
NATCHEZ       88  70  89  70 /  60  32  59  37                                  
GREENVILLE    89  70  87  70 /  61  44  69  47                                  
GREENWOOD     90  69  87  69 /  56  27  53  36                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
7                                                                               
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
110 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA DIMINISHING THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY SRN            
MS. BOTH RUC/LOCAL WRF DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY           
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO WILL REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AFTER 11             
PM OR SO. NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCH PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE AND ALREADY LESS           
THAN 5F TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF I-20. THINNING HIGH            
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EASILY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG             
FOR CENTRAL AND SRN LOCATIONS. DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG I-10           
SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY LIFTING NWD TO AROUND I-20 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND           
HIGHWAY 82 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY CASE...ABOVE NORMAL POPS SHOULD            
PROBABLY CONTINUE UNTIL MID WEEK.                                               
WEB GRPAHICS/GRIDS SHOULD BE POSTED AND ZONE PACKAGE SENT./40/                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WAS BETWEEN A            
MID-UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MID-UPPER HIGH CENTERED                
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OUR WARM MOIST               
AIRMASS(PWATS >=2IN) THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES            
WARMER THAN MAV GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS 00Z MAV                 
TEMPS WERE AMONG THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 12Z MAV MOS                
CAME IN TOO LOW AS WELL. THE WEATHER LABOR DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO               
TODAY`S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE DELTA. THE DEEPEST               
MOISTURE AND GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN THE                    
SOUTHERN HALF AGAIN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DRIER AIR TRYING TO              
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH                   
PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREADS DRIER AIR             
WESTWARD. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR HAS             
LIMITED COVERAGE OVER THE DELTA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT AREAL               
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE DELTA REGION WITH THE MOISTURE                
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER TEXAS. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER             
THAN MAV AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONTINUED DECENT LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD MIN TEMPS NEAR 70 AGAIN. /22/                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW DRY DAYS BY             
MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY EAST...OTHERWISE MORE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WET               
DAYS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY THE MODELS STILL SHOW              
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS                 
EXTENDING FROM THE GEORGIA COAST AND OLD OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN THE                
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MAYBE WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER              
TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO              
THE SOUTHEAST US. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE            
EASTERN ZONES...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING MOISTURE INTO            
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NOT REALLY SURE WHAT             
HAPPENS NEXT...BUT THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST              
DISPLACING THE RIDGE AND COMING BACK ONSHORE...MEANWHILE THE                    
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT INTO THE MIDWEST AROUND FRIDAY. MOISTURE                    
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA...WITH EVERYTHING MOVING OFF TO THE             
NORTH. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM               
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK THURSDAY              
AND FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MUCH             
OF THE CENTRAL US WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SEEM           
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR THROUGH           
THE PERIOD AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS...INSTABILITY STILL           
LOOKS MARGINAL. 850 WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS...MAYBE A FEW                
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THE SYSTEM                  
DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS               
ALREADY MOVING THROUGH...MAY GET AN EARLY START TO FALL. TEMPERATURES           
WERE GOOD...CLOUDS MAY HINDER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT ITS HARD           
TO SAY AT THIS POINT. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER TO MID 90S...EXPECTING SOME           
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...EVEN             
WITH A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL...THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS OK.           
7                                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR FOG/HAZE DEVELOPING AT MOST SITES BY 09Z.                      
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE                
SOUTH HALF 09-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER 14Z              
BUT HAZE HANGING ON AT SOME SITES UNTIL 17Z. AFTERNOON                          
CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN COUNTIES BY                  
17-19Z./40/                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS RESIDUAL PCPN CHANCES AND                
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KFAR WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE            
INTO WESTERN WI. BOUNDARIES PRIMARY INFLUENCE HAS BEEN TEMPERATURES             
AS STRONG CAPPING INHIBITING ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.                      
CONVECTION ALONG NORTHERN TIER TODAY AND EVENING LINING UP WELL WITH            
ZONE OF 850MB CONVERGENCE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION. RUC SHIFTS                 
FEATURES NE AND LOOKS GOOD AS CONVECTION FROM KMVX-88D AND LIGHTNING            
STRIKES SHIFTING EAST OF FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT WILL TRIM BACK              
ON POPS AND COVERAGE REMAINDER OF NIGHT. BIG SURFACE THERMAL                    
GRADIENT EXISTS WITH MID 60S OVER FAR NE AND MID 80S ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH. AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN                 
COOLER AIR HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP LOOKS TO BE MILD NIGHT             
ACROSS SOUTH AND MORE AVERAGE MINIMUMS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL CURRENT               
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WITH ISOLATED TSRA CONFINED TO FAR NE FORECAST AREA.                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
855 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST WAS SHIPPED OUT EARLIER TO DEAL WITH VERY MINOR                
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR PIERRE. WSR-88D               
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED.  REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.                                       
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH TIMING OF COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY...AND TEMPS UP TO THAT POINT.                          
MSAS ANLYS CONTS TO SHOW WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SD/ND BORDER                  
WITH SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF PHP. LATEST RUC SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS               
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL SD INDICATING THAT THE LOW MIGHT BE                    
SLOWLY MOVING EAST...LIFTING THE WARMFRONT TO THE NORTH. HAVE                   
BOLSTERED LOWS A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT GIVEN WHAT SFC DWPTS CURRENTLY              
ARE. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY AS 7H TEMPS KEEP                
ANYTHING FROM FORMING.                                                          
LOOKING AT THE COLD FROPA...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS                  
FEATURE BACK..TO WHERE IT DOESN`T EXIT THE CWA UNTIL NEARLY EARLY               
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE DURING THE                    
TIME...BOLSTERED DWPTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE               
EAST. 7H CAPPING TEMPS REMAIN WELL IN PLACE ALSO KEEPING ANY                    
CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY.                          
NOW THAT FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH DURING GOOD HEATING TIME              
THURSDAY...AND THAT GFS IS LIFTING DECENT 5H WAVE INTO CWA DURING               
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE UPPED THURSDAY EVENING POPS INTO LIKELY                    
CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME PERIODS. STRONG FORCING                
ON THE 310K AND 315K LAYERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON               
THURSDAY SUPPORT THIS...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 1.80 INCHES /NAM/ TO              
OVER 2 INCHES /GFS/ BY 00Z FRIDAY...POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ALSO NOTICED THAT SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THURSDAY                
/DAY3/ FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.                                             
THE NAM STILL LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE                  
SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE HELD ONTO CLOUDS A                 
BIT LONGER AS WELL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                  
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                       
SIGNS OF THE APPROACHING AUTUMN CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN THE LONG                  
RANGE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES APPARENT AND             
MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABUNDANT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE                  
NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE CHANGING                            
METEOROLOGICAL PATTERNS.                                                        
IN GENERAL...INDICATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OF                               
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE/DGEX MODEL RUNS ARE THAT THE                         
INITIAL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY                  
NIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL MORE WAVES THROUGHOUT THE LONG                 
TERM PERIOD...LIKELY REINFORCING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THERE ARE                     
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS HOWEVER...INCLUDING LOCATION OF THE                      
DEEPEST PART OF THE TROUGH.                                                     
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE                  
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY...BUT EXACT LOCATION...AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES                
EXIST...WITH THE 12Z DGEX FURTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER WITH THE                    
SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY              
ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS IS THE DEEPEST OF THE THREE...WHILE SMOOTHED     
GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS REFLECT THE RANGE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS              
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT POPS               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WAS THE MOST LOGICAL WAY TO               
HANDLE THIS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH MOST MODEL                    
SOLUTIONS ALSO CARRYING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF               
THE CWA...BUT THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE.                    
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN BEYOND THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER                     
UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DISAGREEING QUITE A BIT ON THEIR                 
HANDLING OF THE PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS RUN BROKE CONTINUITY BY                    
CUTTING OFF A LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY                
FROM ENERGY DIVING DUE SOUTH FROM THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST                       
TERRITORIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH FORCES A RESULTING RIDGE TO               
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z DGEX/12Z GEM AGREE WITH         
PREVIOUS GFS RUNS IN CONTINUING A TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN                    
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...WITH INCREASING LOCATION AND                   
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES. THOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A LIKELY                 
SCENARIO...GIVEN THAT SEVERAL 12Z GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALSO           
AGREE WITH THE GFS...CAN NOT RULE THIS COMPLETELY OUT... BUT WILL               
CONTINUE TO HINGE UPON THE PREVIOUS GFS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE                
MODEL SUITE FOR GENERAL FEATURES. THUS...CARRIED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY FOR INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS THAT DEVELOPS FROM PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE               
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON SATURDAY.                                             
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SAME LEVELS AS INHERITED...THOUGH THE                
OVERALL PATTERN DEVELOPMENT WILL OBVIOUSLY DICTATE TEMPERATURES                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES REINFORCING              
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE                      
UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY IS UNRESTRICTED. SOME MINOR CONVECTIVE                 
CLOUDS BRIEFLY POPPED UP NEAR KPIR BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.                   
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME TOMORROW.                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KEEFE                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                            
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
332 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.                                       
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH TIMING OF COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY...AND TEMPS UP TO THAT POINT.                          
MSAS ANLYS CONTS TO SHOW WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SD/ND BORDER                  
WITH SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF PHP. LATEST RUC SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS               
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL SD INDICATING THAT THE LOW MIGHT BE                    
SLOWLY MOVING EAST...LIFTING THE WARMFRONT TO THE NORTH. HAVE                   
BOLSTERED LOWS A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT GIVEN WHAT SFC DWPTS CURRENTLY              
ARE. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY AS 7H TEMPS KEEP                
ANYTHING FROM FORMING.                                                          
LOOKING AT THE COLD FROPA...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS                  
FEATURE BACK..TO WHERE IT DOESN`T EXIT THE CWA UNTIL NEARLY EARLY               
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE DURING THE                    
TIME...BOLSTERED DWPTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE               
EAST. 7H CAPPING TEMPS REMAIN WELL IN PLACE ALSO KEEPING ANY                    
CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY.                          
NOW THAT FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH DURING GOOD HEATING TIME              
THURSDAY...AND THAT GFS IS LIFTING DECENT 5H WAVE INTO CWA DURING               
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE UPPED THURSDAY EVENING POPS INTO LIKELY                    
CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME PERIODS. STRONG FORCING                
ON THE 310K AND 315K LAYERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON               
THURSDAY SUPPORT THIS...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 1.80 INCHES /NAM/ TO              
OVER 2 INCHES /GFS/ BY 00Z FRIDAY...POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ALSO NOTICED THAT SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THURSDAY                
/DAY3/ FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.                                             
THE NAM STILL LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE                  
SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE HELD ONTO CLOUDS A                 
BIT LONGER AS WELL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                  
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                       
SIGNS OF THE APPROACHING AUTUMN CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN THE LONG                  
RANGE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES APPARENT AND             
MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABUNDANT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE                  
NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE CHANGING                            
METEOROLOGICAL PATTERNS.                                                        
IN GENERAL...INDICATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OF                               
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE/DGEX MODEL RUNS ARE THAT THE                         
INITIAL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY                  
NIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL MORE WAVES THROUGHOUT THE LONG                 
TERM PERIOD...LIKELY REINFORCING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THERE ARE                     
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS HOWEVER...INCLUDING LOCATION OF THE                      
DEEPEST PART OF THE TROUGH.                                                     
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE                  
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL DIVE                  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY...BUT EXACT LOCATION...AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES                
EXIST...WITH THE 12Z DGEX FURTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER WITH THE                    
SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY              
ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS IS THE DEEPEST OF THE THREE...WHILE SMOOTHED     
GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS REFLECT THE RANGE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS              
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT POPS               
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WAS THE MOST LOGICAL WAY TO               
HANDLE THIS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH MOST MODEL                    
SOLUTIONS ALSO CARRYING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF               
THE CWA...BUT THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE.                    
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN BEYOND THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER                     
UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DISAGREEING QUITE A BIT ON THEIR                 
HANDLING OF THE PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS RUN BROKE CONTINUITY BY                    
CUTTING OFF A LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY                
FROM ENERGY DIVING DUE SOUTH FROM THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST                       
TERRITORIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH FORCES A RESULTING RIDGE TO               
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z DGEX/12Z GEM AGREE WITH         
PREVIOUS GFS RUNS IN CONTINUING A TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN                    
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...WITH INCREASING LOCATION AND                   
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES. THOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A LIKELY                 
SCENARIO...GIVEN THAT SEVERAL 12Z GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALSO           
AGREE WITH THE GFS...CAN NOT RULE THIS COMPLETELY OUT... BUT WILL               
CONTINUE TO HINGE UPON THE PREVIOUS GFS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE                
MODEL SUITE FOR GENERAL FEATURES. THUS...CARRIED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY FOR INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS THAT DEVELOPS FROM PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE               
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON SATURDAY.                                             
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SAME LEVELS AS INHERITED...THOUGH THE                
OVERALL PATTERN DEVELOPMENT WILL OBVIOUSLY DICTATE TEMPERATURES                 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES REINFORCING              
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES/TWB ROUTES THROUGH 18Z                  
WEDNESDAY. FEW ISOLD -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM KFAR TO 50S OF KFAR                
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HINTZ                                                              
LONG TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                            
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
127 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT                 
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE HENRIETTE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SRN TX. MINOR              
SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING PRODUCED ISOLD TO SCT                   
PRECIP AND NVA IN ITS WAKE HAS LEFT CWA FAIRLY DRY LATE THIS AM.                
WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES AS ENHANCED CU                    
EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE N CTL GULF WILL              
BUILD WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INHIBITING POPS ACROSS THE              
REGION. END OF RAIN CHANCES LEADS TO WARMER TEMPS FOR THE LATTER                
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RAIN                   
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND TROPICAL              
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTS A SE WIND AROUND 15 KTS WITH SWELLS NEAR 3            
FT WHILE MTRPIL CHECKS IN WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KTS. A                
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX                  
COASTLINE INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A LITTLE BIT                  
TIGHTER PGF RESULTING FROM PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING PUSHING INTO             
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GWW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE IN                  
KEEPING WAVES AT OR BELOW THE 1 METER LEVEL THROUGHOUT 120 HOURS.               
WILL MAINTAIN THIS OVERALL TREND IN THE CURRENT CWF WORDING WITH NO             
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...RUC MEAN RH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ATMS HAS BEGUN              
TO FINALLY DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EDGE INTO            
THE TX COASTLINE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS              
NO CONV ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION.  SO EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS             
TO CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF              
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  92 /  10  10  10  10                           
BROWNSVILLE          78  93  79  93 /  10  10  10  10                           
HARLINGEN            77  94  77  96 /  10  10  10  10                           
MCALLEN              77  94  78  95 /  10  10  10  10                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  94  78  96 /  10  10  10  10                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  90  80  90 /  10  10  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
55/60/MARTINEZ                                                                  
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1057 PM PDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND                   
NORTHWEST TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW                          
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.              
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND SEASONABLY MODERATE TEMPERATURE REGIME                
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REST OF TONIGHT...THIS FORECAST HAS BECOME EXCEEDINGLY MORE                     
DIFFICULT THAN EXPECTED DUE TO UNEXPECTED BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS                
CURRENTLY BUFFETING THE PUGET SOUND AREA. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS                
SEEMS TO BE FIRING IN AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE               
AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE THE DIFLUENCE WAS                  
NOT UNEXPECTED...THE DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY A              
SURPRISE. THE 00Z MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS AND NAM VASTLY                  
UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE                 
UPPER LOW. THE 00Z UIL SOUNDING SHOWED THE AIRMASS FROM 600 MBS                 
AND HIGHER INITIALIZED TOO WARM AND TOO SATURATED OFF BOTH MODELS. THIS         
HELPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. FORTUNATELY...THE                
RUC SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT WEATHER EVENTS AND MATCHES UP                  
NICELY WITH THE MSAS AND GOES LIFTED INDEX VALUES WEST OF THE                   
CASCADE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE ESE                          
OVERNIGHT...THE RUC TAKES THIS POCKET OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY                  
INTO THE NORTH CASCADES AND WENATCHEE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN               
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER EAST...ALL INDICATIONS                 
SUGGEST WE SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. THE HOPEFULLY ERRONEOUS GFS AND              
NAM BOTH SUGGEST WE WILL SEE A POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY                   
SLIDE UP FROM EC OREGON OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF                
THE CWA BY MORNING. SO FAR WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE WHITES OF ITS                 
EYES...AND WILL RELY MORE WITH THE RUC SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS THE               
BEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NEAR THE CASCADES. SINCE THE RUC INFO                
TERMINATES AT 15Z...THE FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME REMAINS IN                     
QUESTION...BUT SUSPECT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL STEADILY DIVE              
ESE WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST                    
CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE                     
DAY...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO THE POOR INITIALIZATION                    
SUGGESTS THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. FX                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VRF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z                
WED. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND CHANCES FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE KEAT TAF HAS THE                
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OCCURRING BETWEEN                
10Z-18Z. ELSEWHERE...IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCES ARE QUITE                            
LIMITED...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY SHIFTING              
SOUTH OF KLWS. FX                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        59  81  52  79  52  75 /   0  20  10   0   0   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  55  81  51  80  50  74 /   0  20  20   0   0   0                 
PULLMAN        54  79  49  77  46  74 /   0  20  20   0   0   0                 
LEWISTON       65  85  57  84  55  80 /   0  20  30   0   0   0                 
COLVILLE       51  83  46  85  47  80 /  20  20  10   0   0  10                 
SANDPOINT      53  82  50  80  48  74 /   0  20  20   0   0  10                 
KELLOGG        55  80  50  78  47  73 /   0  20  20   0   0   0                 
MOSES LAKE     60  84  55  84  52  81 /  10  20   0   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      64  84  58  84  56  80 /  20  30   0   0   0   0                 
OMAK           57  85  55  85  52  81 /  20  20   0   0   0   0                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
213 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT...MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS TO                     
MINNESOTA TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING.                      
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF                       
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE E/SOUTHEASTWARD           
ACROSS NORTHERN WI ALONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IN REGION OF MODERATE            
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT MAJORITY OF                     
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL WRF 4KM AND              
20 KM MODELS ALSO KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH. THE AC ACROSS CENTRAL               
WI PICKED UP ON RUC BUT MOISTURE IS AROUND 12-15 THSD FT...WITH CAP AT          
5 THSD FT...SO NOT THAT CONCERNED ANYTHING FROM THIS THAT COULD                 
CLIP FOND DU LAC/SHEBOYGAN AREA WOULD REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY               
AIR IN THE 5-10 THSD FT LAYER.                                                  
WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND             
TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ONSHORE ALONG THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS FORCING NIL...AND                
AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED. LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO PROVIDE ANOTHER              
VERY WARM DAY AS 850MB TEMPS REACH 18-19C. HI TEMPS TO PUSH WELL                
INTO THE 80S. GFS MOS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE              
RECENT WET SPELL.                                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING INTO WED AS UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO PROGRESS          
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NAM SOUNDING REDUCE CAP AND LOW                    
CAPES OF 500-100 J/KG ARE INDICATED. HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF               
LIFT. GFS/NAM/ECMWF DO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRYING TO LIFT NORTH              
THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO SOUTH FLOW                
AT 850MB WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN              
WISCONSIN. Q-G FORCING WEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO TRIM               
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY UPPER                 
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION               
THU-FRI. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING                                       
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH CONSENSUS                   
SOLUTION INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.              
ECMWF STILL NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON                     
SATURDAY SO WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCE INTO SUNDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A WEAK STATIONARY OVER SRN WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD ON               
TUE INTO CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY                
CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. AREAS OF MVFR               
FOG WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM 06Z TUE            
TO 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ/GEHRING                                                                   
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE SE AND CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER OR/ID/NV AND ERN                  
CANADA RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A                     
SHORTWAVE AND PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE FROM                
OK/AR TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. SHRA/TSRA EXITING ERN UPPER MI WERE             
SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN AND CONTINUED WRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT            
ALONG THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. A WEAKER BAND OF SHRA HAD ALSO                     
DEVELOPED INTO WRN MENOMINEE COUNTY ALIGNED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF                
WEAK TO MODERATE 310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PER 06Z NAM. AT THE              
SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CNTRL MN AND NRN WI FROM LOW PRES                
OVER SE MT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVAILED NORTH OF THE                 
FRONT...ACROSS UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VSBYS HAD DROPPED TO            
AROUND 1/4SM IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.                                              
TODAY...EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA OVER S UPPER MI AND                      
SUPPORTING LIFT TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH THE PCPN ENDING BY AROUND                
12Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRES MOVING FROM MANITOBA TO HUDSON             
BAY WILL HELP DRAW A WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI AS SW 925 MB WINDS             
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. UPSTREAM MAX READINGS FROM TUE OVER ERN MN AND            
NW WI ALONG WITH MIXING TO 850-800 MB (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C)                 
SUPPORT MAX READINGS AROUND 90F OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER             
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. LAKE MI MODIFIED AIR             
WILL KEEP THE ERN CWA A BIT COOLER. NO ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED              
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR PREVAILING...DESPITE                
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.               
TONIGHT AND THU...THE ACTIVE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP                
NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM NW MN INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAY GRADUALLY               
SAG INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...PER 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BULK             
OF THE OCNLY HEAVY SHRA/TSRA SUPPORTED BY STRONG 850-600 MB FGEN                
TO REMAIN N OF UPPER MI...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV              
AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE MS VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO                
UPPER MI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD IN THE AFTERNOON. THE                 
GFS/CMC/UKMET WOULD PLACE THE GREATER PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM             
OVER THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                           
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS            
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE FROM SD THROUGH               
NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI ON                
FRI. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHRTWVS IN SW FLOW STILL COULD SET OFF SOME                  
SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS                 
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA AND MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE ON FRI. DECENT               
LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIV              
AND QVECTOR CONV JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS. CAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG AND              
40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY                  
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS DELAYED INTO THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...ANY LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA WILL END QUICKLY FRI                 
EVENING WITH STRONG DRYING MOVING IN ON BRISK NW WINDS BEHIND THE               
COLD FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN              
WITH THE DEVELOPING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NRN CONUS...WITH                   
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
WERE MENTIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT DENSE FOG/IFR VSBYS/CIGS TO LINGER AS UPR LVL DRYING/CAPPING             
IN WAKE OF H85 WARM FROPA MOVES OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/SHALLOW                
FNTL INVRN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY TO VFR WED MRNG              
ONCE SFC WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N. DIURNAL MIXING WL ALLOW DVLPMNT              
OF GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW. LOOK FOR LLWS ONCE SUN SETS              
AND LLJ UNDERGOES NOCTURNAL INTENSIFICATION ABV RADIATION INVRN.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD LATE              
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT ON             
BOTH HALVES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON THU...THEN            
GET CLOSE TO 25 KT AGAIN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT AS                  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEAR THUNDER BAY BY 8 AM             
FRI. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO DEEPEN FRI AS IT HEADS TOWARDS JAMES                  
BAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 30 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...              
PARTICULARLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE DEEPER            
THAN EXPECTED...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. AFTER            
FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT AND REMAIN THROUGH             
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVY MIZ001-003-005                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
127 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR MQT COUNTY WITH VSBYS OVER THE HIER                   
TERRAIN AOB 1/4SM ATTM. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO BECOME MORE WDSPRD              
OVER MORE OF MQT COUNTY LATER AND ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF INTERIOR             
WCNTRL UPR MI WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING/CAPPING IN THE WAKE OF             
H85 WARM FROPA WHILE SFC BNDRY REMAINS TO THE S AND INVRN BECOMES               
MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. NO OTHER SITES ARE REPORTING LO VSBYS                   
ATTM...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL ADVYS FOR A FEW HRS TO SEE HOW              
FOG DVLPS. BUT EXPECT ADVYS WL BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST ALL            
THE CNTRL COUNTIES FM IMT-IRON RIVER TO THE KEWEENAW AS MID LVL                 
DRYING OVERSPREADS LLVL MSTR. THE H85 WARM FNT CURRENTLY STRETCHES              
FM THE KEWEENAW ACRS NRN MQT COUNTY INTO THE ERN ZNS...AS MARKED BY             
AXIS OF ACCAS AS SHOWN ON VSBL STLT IMAGERY. LATEST RUC SHOWS H85               
WARM FROPA ACRS THE E BY 09Z...SO CUT POPS ACRS THE FAR ERN ZNS AFT             
THAT TIME. DENSE FOG MAY DVLP OVER THE E LATE AS WELL FOLLOWING THIS            
FROPA.                                                                          
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...                                          
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO MAIN FEATURES PRODUCING THE HEAVY             
RAIN OVER UPR MI. FIRST WAS H85 WARM FRONT STRADDLING THE SOUTHERN              
U.P. A SFC WARM FRONT IS NOW JUST EDGING INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF              
CNTRL UPR MI. SECOND MAIN FEATURE IS 130KT H3 JET OVR ONTARIO.                  
EARLIER TODAY THIS JET WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LIFTING ALONG H85            
FRONT DUE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND HELPING TO INCREASE FGEN FORCING.             
THIS AFTN THE JET CONTINUES EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART THE PCPN IS              
ENDING ACROSS UPR MI. WHAT AN EVENT...FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF UPR              
MI...THIS TURNS OUT TO BE. ALREADY SET ALL TIME DAILY RECORD                    
RAINFALL FOR ANY MONTH...NO LESS SEPTEMBER. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 4.09            
INCHES SET IN JUNE OF 1968. DAILY TOTAL THUS FAR...4.28 INCHES. MOST            
WE HAVE HEARD IS AROUND 5 INCHES OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND IN                  
EASTERN MQT COUNTY NEAR SKANDIA. A COMPLETE LIST OF TOTALS IS ON OUR            
WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT IN THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION.             
AN OFFICIAL RECORD REPORT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING WHEN THE EVENT            
IS FINISHED.                                                                    
MEANWHILE...NOT A DROP OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. SO THE             
TIGHT GRADIENT GUIDANCE SHOWED YDY FOR THE EVENT WAS RIGHT ON.                  
LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW ALSO DID FAIRLY WELL WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. DO IN               
LARGE PART TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER...THUS              
FAR...HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF MINOR STREET FLOODING...GRAVEL ROAD              
WASHOUTS...AND HIGH WATER IN CULVERTS. NO MAJOR FLOODING REPORTED SO            
FAR. PRETTY AMAZING CONSIDERING VOLUME OF WATER THAT OCCURRED IN                
SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.                                                    
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS POINT TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE                    
OVERNIGHT...FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. LACK OF                 
STRONG INFLOW INTO THE DECAYING H85 FRONT MINIMIZES THE THREAT OF               
HEAVY RAIN. CONCERNED THAT ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION THERE                 
MAY BE A CHANCE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION DUE TO LINGERING STRONG DEEP             
LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLOSE TO 1500J/KG. THUS FAR...LACK OF MOIST             
INFLOW INTO THIS AREA IS LIMITING CONVECTION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.            
MOVING ON INTO THE LATER EVENING...FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. LOWER              
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND MID LEVEL DRYING IS BEGINNING TO TAKE                
SHAPE. INCLUDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN GRIDS. STILL ASSESSING THE                
NEED FOR AN ADVY. ALREADY SEEING DENSE FOG IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF                  
NCNTRL UPR MI ATTM AT OUR OFFICE NEAR NEGAUNEE.                                 
FLIP THE SWITCH FOR THE WEATHER ON WED ONCE WARM FRONT MOVES                    
THROUGH. SFC WINDS SWITCH TO THE SSW WHICH ALLOWS THE HEAT TO                   
REALLY KICK IN. IN FACT...HARD TO BELIEVE I KNOW...BUT SETUP OF                 
H85 TEMPS AROUND 20C AND WSW WINDS (GFS/NAM/UKMET) APPEARS QUITE                
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD AROUND 90 READINGS TO OCCUR WED AFTN AWAY              
FM MODERATION OF LK MICHIGAN. DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR                
(BARAGA TO MARQUETTE TO MUNISING) MAY TRY TO REACH MID 90S. NOT BAD             
WHEN LOW END OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS UPR 80S. ALL GUIDANCE IN REALLY             
GOOD AGREEMENT TO A HOT AND FAIRLY HUMID (DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 60S)             
EARLY SEPTEMBER DAY. RECORD HIGH AT NWS MQT OF 88 SET IN 1998 LOOKS             
IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
TAKING A GLIMPSE AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...RIDGING WILL START OUT            
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS            
OF THE NATION.  FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE                  
PROGRESSION ON A SHORTWAVE SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA AND                
NEBRASKA...AS IT GETS SCOOPED UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR US.             
STILL...THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM              
THE WEST...SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER             
PENINSULA.  AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES ON              
THE THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY 12Z FRIDAY.  IN GENERAL...THE            
SURFACE LOW SHOULD STRETCH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD                   
THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA.  UPPER PENINSULA MAINLY STAYS IN THE WARM                
SLOT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE             
BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT              
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.  MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON                
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE                    
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW...BUT WILL STICK TO THE LOW TO MID               
80S FOR NOW.                                                                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AFTER THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS                
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN THE 60S.                                 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE                
YEAR RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR THE MARQUETTE AREA.                            
AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DAYS 4 TO 7...SATURDAY THROUGH                   
TUESDAY...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.  HPC UTILIZED A                 
COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z NCEP-GEFS AND ECMWF.  BASICALLY                
THIS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY POP FOR MUCH OF THE                
EXTENDED...AS THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE                
NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT DENSE FOG/IFR VSBYS/CIGS TO LINGER AS UPR LVL DRYING/CAPPING             
IN WAKE OF H85 WARM FROPA MOVES OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/SHALLOW                
FNTL INVRN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY TO VFR WED MRNG              
ONCE SFC WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N. DIURNAL MIXING WL ALLOW DVLPMNT              
OF GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW. LOOK FOR LLWS ONCE SUN SETS              
AND LLJ UNDERGOES NOCTURNAL INTENSIFICATION ABV RADIATION INVRN.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRES OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS A            
WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN UPR MI. GUSTY E WINDS TO 25 KT            
ON LK SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH BY WED MORNING. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG             
WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD            
OF TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF DAKOTAS. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE              
POSSIBLE ON THE FAVORED EASTERN LAKE. MORE STRONG SOUTH WINDS                   
POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS UPR LAKES. WINDS TURNING            
TO THE NE ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD APPROACH 30 KT. NO                
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVY MIZ001-003-005                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...KC                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLA                                                                
LONG TERM...KF                                                                  
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
327 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER WEST TEXAS LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED INTO                    
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. A SMALL JET STREAK IS MOVING EAST                
ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN                    
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AS SEEN BY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN WV/IR               
IMAGERY. RUC80 ANALYZES THIS FEATURE AS WELL...AND                              
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF                
THIS FEATURE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE                
TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.                
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD                
WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS                
EAST OF OUR CWA. THE JEST STREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER                
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE               
OF SHRA/TSRA THERE TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MID/UPPER              
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN TODAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS TO THE              
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM HENRIETTE. WE ALSO HAVE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING               
UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA...AND EXPECT THESE TO                   
ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SAW TEMPERATURES REACH 80 OR                   
WARMER IN AREAS THAT DIDN/T SEE RAIN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE              
WARMING TREND FOR TODAY AS LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. CONTINUE                
TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                
IN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO                  
STREAM NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS...AND MOISTURE ALOFT FROM                        
HENRIETTE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO                     
WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH                       
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STORM TO KEEP SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE                     
RELATED ACTIVITY FROM HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST AND NORTH                
OF OUR CWA...BUT THE BIG COUNTRY...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE                
20 COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE STORM               
IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW...THEN ACCELERATES TO THE               
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP AND PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN                
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE EJECTING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE                          
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW               
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT PUSHING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEHIND                
THIS LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER CHANCE AND                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG                 
THE POSSIBLE STAGNANT BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE               
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE COULD CONTINUE               
TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE                
LOW ORDER POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT HAVE TAKEN RAIN              
CHANCES OUT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE              
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  86  70  88  73 /  20  10  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  89  72  89  72 /  20  10  10  10                                    
JUNCTION  86  72  88  74 /  40  20  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
401 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON WARM DAY TODAY WITH PATTERN BECOMING                
WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THU INTO FRI TIME FRAME.                                  
SFC/MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. WATCHING                      
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH ON WATER VAPOR. RUC SHOWS A FEW WEAK VORT                 
CENTERS VCNTY KS/MO WITH STRONGEST VORT ACTION FURTHER SOUTH ACRS               
OK/TX. WITH PCPN ONGOING AND DEFYING THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IDEA                  
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR PCPN REACHING FAR SOUTH LATRER                        
TNGT...HOWEVER FOR NOW FEEL INCLINED TO KEEP THE DRY LOOK GOING.                
GUID POPS ARE A SMIDGE WORRISOME FOR MENTIONING A SML CHC BUT WILL              
KEEP THINGS PRETTY GRID WISE...LEANING TOWARDS QUIETER GUID POPS                
AND HPC QPF AND STAY DRY.                                                       
FAIRLY MOIST SW H8 FLOW SETTING UP FOR THU...H8 DEWS GETTING TO NR              
14C. A BIT MORE DYNAMICS IN PLACE WITH H5 WAVES SHOWING A LITTLE                
MORE STEAM AND CWA IN LEFT NOSE VCNTY OF H8 WIND MAX. GFS MOS DEW               
POINTS GET REAL JUICY INTO THE MID 70S...SURPRISINGLY MORE ROBUST               
THAN NAM MOS. WHILE WEAK UPR DVRG NOTED THU...THE BETTER UPPER                  
FORCING IMPINGES UPON THE CWA FRI WITH ARRIVAL OF PLAINS                        
SHORTWAVE. H8 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THU NGT/FRI MRNG                  
AHEAD OF H8 TROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO GO LIKELY FOR THU THROUGH FRI               
TIME PERIOD.                                                                    
THE GFS SHOWS A BELIEVEABLE WAVE IN THE FLOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A                
SURFACE REFLECTION TO OUR SE. THIS WOULD CLIP THE SE WITH PCPN.                 
WILL JUST GO WITH A CHC CWA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER FEATURE.              
00Z ECMWF BACKING OFF ON PCPN FOR SUNDAY WITH LESS SHORTWAVE                    
ENERGY NOTED THAN THE PRIOR 12Z RUN. THIS NEW TREND SUPPORTS THE                
SIGNALS FROM THE GFS FOR A DRIER SUNDAY...WITH ONLY TEEN POPS AND               
CLR-PC SKIES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...VAD WINDS FROM LOWEST GATES THROUGH 1000M FROM THE                  
SOUTHWEST AT 20KTS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  EXPECT                     
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z...SO ONLY LIGHT FOG WITH VSBYS                
GENERALLY ABV MVFR PSBL AT TAF SITES.  DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL 8                
DEGREES. INCRNG SOUTH WINDS WL CARRY DEEPER MOISTURE RAPIDLY ACRS               
SRN WI TNGT.  EXPC MID LVL CLOUDS TO SWEEP IN BY 06Z.  NOT OUT OF               
THE QUESTION THAT MVFR CIGS AND LGT FOG REACHES TAF SITES BY LATE IN            
THE PD WITH SCT -SHRA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK S/W TROUGH MOVING THRU SRN            
WI.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1205 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007)...                            
UPDATED THE ZFP AND OTHER PRODUCTS TO GET RID OF THE MENTION OF                 
FOG...AND TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA              
AS SHOWERS BEGAN TO POP UP AROUND 12Z OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SLIDE              
INLAND.  WILL BE ADDING FOG TO AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL.                  
OTHERWISE...FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007)...                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE SE AND CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER OR/ID/NV AND ERN                  
CANADA RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A                     
SHORTWAVE AND PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE FROM                
OK/AR TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. SHRA/TSRA EXITING ERN UPPER MI WERE             
SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN AND CONTINUED WRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT            
ALONG THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. A WEAKER BAND OF SHRA HAD ALSO                     
DEVELOPED INTO WRN MENOMINEE COUNTY ALIGNED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF                
WEAK TO MODERATE 310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PER 06Z NAM. AT THE              
SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CNTRL MN AND NRN WI FROM LOW PRES                
OVER SE MT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVAILED NORTH OF THE                 
FRONT...ACROSS UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VSBY HAD DROPPED TO             
AROUND 1/4SM IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.                                              
TODAY...EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA OVER S UPPER MI AND                      
SUPPORTING LIFT TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH THE PCPN ENDING BY AROUND                
12Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRES MOVING FROM MANITOBA TO HUDSON             
BAY WILL HELP DRAW A WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI AS SW 925 MB WINDS             
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. UPSTREAM MAX READINGS FROM TUE OVER ERN MN AND            
NW WI ALONG WITH MIXING TO 850-800 MB (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C)                 
SUPPORT MAX READINGS AROUND 90F OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER             
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. LAKE MI MODIFIED AIR             
WILL KEEP THE ERN CWA A BIT COOLER. NO ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED              
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR PREVAILING...DESPITE                
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.               
TONIGHT AND THU...THE ACTIVE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP                
NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM NW MN INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAY GRADUALLY               
SAG INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...PER 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BULK             
OF THE OCNLY HEAVY SHRA/TSRA SUPPORTED BY STRONG 850-600 MB FGEN                
TO REMAIN N OF UPPER MI...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV              
AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE MS VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO                
UPPER MI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD IN THE AFTERNOON. THE                 
GFS/CMC/UKMET WOULD PLACE THE GREATER PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM             
OVER THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                           
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS            
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE FROM SD THROUGH               
NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI ON                
FRI. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHRTWVS IN SW FLOW STILL COULD SET OFF SOME                  
SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS                 
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA AND MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE ON FRI. DECENT               
LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIV              
AND QVECTOR CONV JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS. CAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG AND              
40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY                  
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS DELAYED INTO THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...ANY LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA WILL END QUICKLY FRI                 
EVENING WITH STRONG DRYING MOVING IN ON BRISK NW WINDS BEHIND THE               
COLD FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN              
WITH THE DEVELOPING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NRN CONUS...WITH                   
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
WERE MENTIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH THE SETTING             
OF THE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER               
MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z. THUS...LLWS WAS INCLUDED FOR BOTH TAF SITES                 
THROUGH 12Z WHEN SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE INCREASING ONCE                   
AGAIN.  OTHERWISE...GOOD CEIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE NEXT             
24 HOURS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD LATE              
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT ON             
BOTH HALVES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON THU...THEN            
GET CLOSE TO 25 KT AGAIN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT AS                  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEAR THUNDER BAY BY 8 AM             
FRI. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO DEEPEN FRI AS IT HEADS TOWARDS JAMES                  
BAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 30 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...              
PARTICULARLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE DEEPER            
THAN EXPECTED...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. AFTER            
FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT AND REMAIN THROUGH             
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KF                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JLB                                                       
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
935 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE ZFP AND OTHER PRODUCTS TO GET RID OF THE MENTION OF                 
FOG...AND TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA              
AS SHOWERS BEGAN TO POP UP AROUND 12Z OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SLIDE              
INLAND.  WILL BE ADDING FOG TO AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL.                  
OTHERWISE...FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007)...                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE SE AND CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER OR/ID/NV AND ERN                  
CANADA RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A                     
SHORTWAVE AND PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE FROM                
OK/AR TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. SHRA/TSRA EXITING ERN UPPER MI WERE             
SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN AND CONTINUED WRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT            
ALONG THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. A WEAKER BAND OF SHRA HAD ALSO                     
DEVELOPED INTO WRN MENOMINEE COUNTY ALIGNED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF                
WEAK TO MODERATE 310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PER 06Z NAM. AT THE              
SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CNTRL MN AND NRN WI FROM LOW PRES                
OVER SE MT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVAILED NORTH OF THE                 
FRONT...ACROSS UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VSBYS HAD DROPPED TO            
AROUND 1/4SM IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.                                              
TODAY...EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA OVER S UPPER MI AND                      
SUPPORTING LIFT TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH THE PCPN ENDING BY AROUND                
12Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRES MOVING FROM MANITOBA TO HUDSON             
BAY WILL HELP DRAW A WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI AS SW 925 MB WINDS             
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. UPSTREAM MAX READINGS FROM TUE OVER ERN MN AND            
NW WI ALONG WITH MIXING TO 850-800 MB (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C)                 
SUPPORT MAX READINGS AROUND 90F OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER             
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. LAKE MI MODIFIED AIR             
WILL KEEP THE ERN CWA A BIT COOLER. NO ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED              
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR PREVAILING...DESPITE                
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.               
TONIGHT AND THU...THE ACTIVE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP                
NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM NW MN INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAY GRADUALLY               
SAG INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...PER 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BULK             
OF THE OCNLY HEAVY SHRA/TSRA SUPPORTED BY STRONG 850-600 MB FGEN                
TO REMAIN N OF UPPER MI...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV              
AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE MS VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO                
UPPER MI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD IN THE AFTERNOON. THE                 
GFS/CMC/UKMET WOULD PLACE THE GREATER PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM             
OVER THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                           
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS            
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE FROM SD THROUGH               
NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI ON                
FRI. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHRTWVS IN SW FLOW STILL COULD SET OFF SOME                  
SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS                 
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA AND MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE ON FRI. DECENT               
LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIV              
AND QVECTOR CONV JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS. CAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG AND              
40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY                  
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS DELAYED INTO THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...ANY LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA WILL END QUICKLY FRI                 
EVENING WITH STRONG DRYING MOVING IN ON BRISK NW WINDS BEHIND THE               
COLD FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN              
WITH THE DEVELOPING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NRN CONUS...WITH                   
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
WERE MENTIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES DUE TO                 
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. IN FACT...THE WINDS             
WILL LIKELY GUST THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING BRINGS DOWN                  
HIGHER WINDS FROM ABOVE THE SFC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE              
DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW               
LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...LLWS IS INCLUDED             
FOR BOTH TAF SITES.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD LATE              
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT ON             
BOTH HALVES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON THU...THEN            
GET CLOSE TO 25 KT AGAIN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT AS                  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEAR THUNDER BAY BY 8 AM             
FRI. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO DEEPEN FRI AS IT HEADS TOWARDS JAMES                  
BAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 30 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...              
PARTICULARLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE DEEPER            
THAN EXPECTED...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. AFTER            
FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT AND REMAIN THROUGH             
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KF                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JLB                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
703 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES THU THROUGH FRI.                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE SE AND CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER OR/ID/NV AND ERN                  
CANADA RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A                     
SHORTWAVE AND PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE FROM                
OK/AR TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. SHRA/TSRA EXITING ERN UPPER MI WERE             
SUPPORTED BY 850-700 MB FGEN AND CONTINUED WRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT            
ALONG THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. A WEAKER BAND OF SHRA HAD ALSO                     
DEVELOPED INTO WRN MENOMINEE COUNTY ALIGNED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF                
WEAK TO MODERATE 310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PER 06Z NAM. AT THE              
SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CNTRL MN AND NRN WI FROM LOW PRES                
OVER SE MT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVAILED NORTH OF THE                 
FRONT...ACROSS UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VSBYS HAD DROPPED TO            
AROUND 1/4SM IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.                                              
TODAY...EXPECT THE REMAINING SHRA/TSRA OVER S UPPER MI AND                      
SUPPORTING LIFT TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH THE PCPN ENDING BY AROUND                
12Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRES MOVING FROM MANITOBA TO HUDSON             
BAY WILL HELP DRAW A WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI AS SW 925 MB WINDS             
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. UPSTREAM MAX READINGS FROM TUE OVER ERN MN AND            
NW WI ALONG WITH MIXING TO 850-800 MB (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C)                 
SUPPORT MAX READINGS AROUND 90F OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER             
MI...ESPECIALLY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. LAKE MI MODIFIED AIR             
WILL KEEP THE ERN CWA A BIT COOLER. NO ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED              
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR PREVAILING...DESPITE                
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.               
TONIGHT AND THU...THE ACTIVE FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP                
NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM NW MN INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAY GRADUALLY               
SAG INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...PER 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE BULK             
OF THE OCNLY HEAVY SHRA/TSRA SUPPORTED BY STRONG 850-600 MB FGEN                
TO REMAIN N OF UPPER MI...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV              
AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE MS VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO                
UPPER MI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD IN THE AFTERNOON. THE                 
GFS/CMC/UKMET WOULD PLACE THE GREATER PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM             
OVER THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                                           
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS            
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE FROM SD THROUGH               
NRN MN INTO NRN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI ON                
FRI. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHRTWVS IN SW FLOW STILL COULD SET OFF SOME                  
SHRA/TSRA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS                 
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA AND MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE ON FRI. DECENT               
LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIV              
AND QVECTOR CONV JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS. CAPE VALUES NEAR 1K J/KG AND              
40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY                  
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS DELAYED INTO THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...ANY LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA WILL END QUICKLY FRI                 
EVENING WITH STRONG DRYING MOVING IN ON BRISK NW WINDS BEHIND THE               
COLD FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN              
WITH THE DEVELOPING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NRN CONUS...WITH                   
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
WERE MENTIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES DUE TO                 
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. IN FACT...THE WINDS             
WILL LIKELY GUST THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING BRINGS DOWN                  
HIGHER WINDS FROM ABOVE THE SFC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE              
DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW               
LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...LLWS IS INCLUDED             
FOR BOTH TAF SITES.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD LATE              
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT ON             
BOTH HALVES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON THU...THEN            
GET CLOSE TO 25 KT AGAIN ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT AS                  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEAR THUNDER BAY BY 8 AM             
FRI. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO DEEPEN FRI AS IT HEADS TOWARDS JAMES                  
BAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 30 KT             
ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...              
PARTICULARLY ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE DEEPER            
THAN EXPECTED...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. AFTER            
FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT AND REMAIN THROUGH             
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVY MIZ001-003-005                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1016 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THE DELTA            
REGION AS UPSTREAM RAINS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS              
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z RUC BREAKS OUT SHRA/TSRA ALONG MS              
RIVER BY 18Z AND THEN SPREADS ACTIVITY SLOWLY EWD TO I-55 CORRIDOR              
WHILE KEEPING ERN MS MOSTLY DRY. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN             
SHOWING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THINNING RAPIDLY AS THEY PROGRESS EWD            
THROUGH THE CWFA. MORNING RAOBS SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR WET             
MICROBURST ACTIVITY...MAINLY SWRN PORTIONS OF CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE UPPER VORT CENTER IN OK WITH TROUGH AXIS SWD INTO ERN TX NOW                
LIFTING NEWD AND SHOULD DRAG MORE UVV ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE              
EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BAND OF RAIN/TSRA EWD.                                 
NO OTHER CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE AND WEB/TEXT               
DATA HAS BEEN ALREADY SENT.                                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED                 
STRONG IN THE HWO TODAY BUT CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL                   
DECREASE TOMORROW DUE TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER              
LOW LEVEL TEMPS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER OVER ERN ZONES...                   
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED IN AT LOWER               
LEVELS FROM THE EAST. AGREE WITH MOS TEMPERATURE TREND FOR SLIGHTLY             
COOLER HIGHS TOMORROW WHEN 925/850 TEMPS FALL A LITTLE AS THE UPPER             
TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH./07/                                                      
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK U/L TROUGHING WILL                  
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST             
OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST GFS RUN DEVELOPS A LOW            
OVER OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND PUSHES IT UP INTO THE               
OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE GFS NOR            
THE EURO ARE NOT AS DEEP WITH THE U/L TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT             
DOES SLOWLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY             
NIGHT. THE GFS...ENSEMBLES  AND THE EURO QUICKLY BUILDS UPPER                   
RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND WEAKENS            
OVER THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE              
IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH DRYER AIR IN THE EAST.                 
STRONG U/L RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES                
THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT THE GFS DOES INDICATE A DRYER NORTHEAST FLOW             
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS./15/                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 20Z MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE ISOLATED       
SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...SHRA/TSRA INCREASING OVER THE AREA            
FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL                   
OCCASIONALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS MAINLY W OF I-55. TSRA         
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 49 THIS AFTERNOON               
DUE TO LESS HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THAT AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD                  
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING IN WRN PORTIONS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER           
06Z WITH MINIMAL SHRA PERSISTING LATE TONIGHT N OF I-20./40/                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       90  71  88  69 /  37  48  46  25                                  
MERIDIAN      93  67  88  68 /  15  39  27  16                                  
VICKSBURG     90  72  89  70 /  60  51  52  28                                  
HATTIESBURG   93  72  91  69 /  22  29  36  21                                  
NATCHEZ       89  72  89  71 /  58  41  55  23                                  
GREENVILLE    89  71  88  70 /  80  68  64  27                                  
GREENWOOD     90  71  88  69 /  49  60  58  24                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
630 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG OF 4 TO 5                 
MILES THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LOOKING FOR MOST                  
STATIONS TO LIFT FROM IFR TO LIFT TO MVFR 15-16Z...BUT MAY TAKE                 
LONGER FURTHER SOUTH AT KSOA AND KJCT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL                     
CLOUDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE AND WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING EAST.             
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT AROUND 18Z. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIG RETURN               
TO I-10 CORRIDOR...KJCT AND KSOA TAFS LATE TONIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER WEST TEXAS LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED INTO                    
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. A SMALL JET STREAK IS MOVING EAST                
ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN                    
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AS SEEN BY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN WV/IR               
IMAGERY. RUC80 ANALYZES THIS FEATURE AS WELL...AND                              
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF                
THIS FEATURE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE                
TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.                
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD                
WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS                
EAST OF OUR CWA. THE JEST STREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER                
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE               
OF SHRA/TSRA THERE TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MID/UPPER              
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN TODAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS TO THE              
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM HENRIETTE. WE ALSO HAVE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING               
UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA...AND EXPECT THESE TO                   
ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SAW TEMPERATURES REACH 80 OR                   
WARMER IN AREAS THAT DIDN/T SEE RAIN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE              
WARMING TREND FOR TODAY AS LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. CONTINUE                
TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                
IN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO                  
STREAM NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS...AND MOISTURE ALOFT FROM                        
HENRIETTE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO                     
WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH                       
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STORM TO KEEP SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE                     
RELATED ACTIVITY FROM HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST AND NORTH                
OF OUR CWA...BUT THE BIG COUNTRY...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE                
20 COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE STORM               
IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW...THEN ACCELERATES TO THE               
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP AND PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN                
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE EJECTING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE                          
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW               
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT PUSHING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEHIND                
THIS LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER CHANCE AND                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG                 
THE POSSIBLE STAGNANT BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE               
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE COULD CONTINUE               
TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE                
LOW ORDER POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT HAVE TAKEN RAIN              
CHANCES OUT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE              
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  86  70  88  73 /  20  10  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  89  72  89  72 /  20  10  10  10                                    
JUNCTION  86  72  88  74 /  40  20  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/04                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
351 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE                
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A NUMBER OF WEAK                
SHORTWAVES CAUGHT IN A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A CLOSED              
LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER                 
WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN                 
ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED            
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.             
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHED THE TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 90 TODAY                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS GENERATED A CUMULUS CLOUDS. A CAP                
AROUND 750MB AND DRY CONDITIONS BELOW 850MB KEEP ANY OF THIS FROM               
TURNING INTO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.                                          
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...                                           
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF AN APPROACHING LOW            
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY                  
TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                               
CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM IS GAINING STEAM OVER THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH            
EASTERN COLORADO.  WARM AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS             
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEING              
COMMON.  WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE             
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  SO...AFTER A WARM DAY...A WARM OVERNIGHT CAN             
BE EXPECTED.  FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST                   
TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.                                
PLACED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.                   
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND               
DEW POINTS HOVERING A 3-4 DEGREES BELOW THESE LEVELS...BELIEVE THAT             
FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS/MORNINGS.              
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH            
MAINLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS               
FIGURED UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                       
EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                     
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH               
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE               
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON FRIDAY             
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INSTABILITY. THUS LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT             
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BETTER CHANCE            
ON FRIDAY.                                                                      
DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY                
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A RIDGE AND FOLLOWING THE             
FRONT. THUS LOOKING FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END.                   
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INCONSISTANCE. HPC               
FAVORS THE ECMWF BUT THAT SOLUTION STILL HAS SOME RUN TO RUN                    
INCONSISTENCY AS WELL. THE LOCALLY RUN HEMI WRF IS CLOSE TO THE                 
05/00Z ECMWF RUN AND IS CONSISTENT THROUGH OUT THE RUN SO WILL FAVOR            
THAT.                                                                           
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE                
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND MOVE              
INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER                    
MANITOBA SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL             
SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE             
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX OVER THE NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A                
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING AND              
MOVE INTO WEST U.P. AVAILABLE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL FOR               
CHANCE OF RAIN. WILL KEEP JUST A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE                      
FORECAST.                                                                       
THE LONG WAVES TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT            
AND MONDAY. AN AREA OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SWEEPING                  
THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT. THE                
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT OUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE U.P. ON               
MONDAY. 320K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST            
IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND NEGLIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL             
JET MAX WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. SO WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC              
AT THIS AND KEEP IT DRY DURING THE DAY.                                         
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE THROUGH THE                 
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL FAVOR              
HPC GUIDANCE AND KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA                   
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. GUIIDANCE ALSO FAVOR DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE            
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS COMBINED WITH THE SETTING             
OF THE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER               
MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z. THUS...LLWS IS INCLUDED FOR BOTH TAF SITES                  
THROUGH 12Z WHEN SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE COMING UP.                        
OTHERWISE...GOOD CEIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE NEXT 24                  
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
INCREASED WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON NEARS             
LAKE SUPERIOR.  FOR TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WINDS MAY GUST              
UP TO 30 KT.  THESE GUSTS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY...BEFORE                
INCREASING TO AROUND 25KT AS THE FRONT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN AND                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SHOULD            
BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAWN FRIDAY.  THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT            
SHOULD CROSS OVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH NW WINDS OF 30KT                 
POSSIBLE BEHIND IT.  WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND             
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KF                                                                 
EXTENDED...DLG                                                                  
AVIATION/MARINE...KF                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL                  
TEXAS UNTIL 05/21Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN                  
05/21Z AND 06/07Z. IFR CIGS BLO OVC010 WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 06/07Z...WITH MVFR CIGS                
BKN010-020 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST             
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  21                                                           
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER WEST TEXAS LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED INTO                    
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. A SMALL JET STREAK IS MOVING EAST                
ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN                    
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AS SEEN BY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN WV/IR               
IMAGERY. RUC80 ANALYZES THIS FEATURE AS WELL...AND                              
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF                
THIS FEATURE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE                
TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.                
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD                
WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS                
EAST OF OUR CWA. THE JEST STREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER                
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE               
OF SHRA/TSRA THERE TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MID/UPPER              
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN TODAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS TO THE              
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM HENRIETTE. WE ALSO HAVE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING               
UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA...AND EXPECT THESE TO                   
ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SAW TEMPERATURES REACH 80 OR                   
WARMER IN AREAS THAT DIDN/T SEE RAIN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE              
WARMING TREND FOR TODAY AS LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. CONTINUE                
TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                
IN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO                  
STREAM NORTHWARD AT LOW LEVELS...AND MOISTURE ALOFT FROM                        
HENRIETTE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO                     
WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH                       
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STORM TO KEEP SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE                     
RELATED ACTIVITY FROM HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST AND NORTH                
OF OUR CWA...BUT THE BIG COUNTRY...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE                
20 COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE STORM               
IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW...THEN ACCELERATES TO THE               
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP AND PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN                
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE EJECTING TO THE EAST OUT OF THE                          
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW               
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT PUSHING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEHIND                
THIS LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER CHANCE AND                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG                 
THE POSSIBLE STAGNANT BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE               
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE COULD CONTINUE               
TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP THE                
LOW ORDER POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT HAVE TAKEN RAIN              
CHANCES OUT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE              
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED.                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  86  73  88  74 /  20  10  20  20                                       
SAN ANGELO  89  73  90  75 /  20  10  10  10                                    
JUNCTION  86  75  88  75 /  40  20  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx