AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
329 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...                
...ACCUMULATING SNOW CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/PIKES PEAK NEXT 24 HOURS...              
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN UT WITH             
VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...MUCH            
OF THE IFR-MVFR STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY             
AND SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE. WINDY SOUTHWEST SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE             
FINALLY DEVELOPED IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH DEW POINTS TANKING                
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALSO...MOUNTAIN/HIGH VALLEYS DEW POINTS ARE             
STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S...SO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR               
CONTINUES ALOFT. DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S REMAIN ACROSS MUCH             
OF EASTERN CO PLAINS. RUC/LAPS INDICATES A RIBBON OF 100-600 J/KG               
CAPE GENERALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES              
AROUND TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION IS                
PROHIBITING ANY SURFACE-BASED MOIST CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...SO             
FAR. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN AROUND THE                   
NORTHERN CO FRONT RANGE/SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN PALMER DIVIDE JUST             
AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS HEALTHY               
ACROSS MUCH OF CO WITH 50-85KTS GIVEN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
ALOFT JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE            
SURFACE.                                                                        
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WELL THE SYSTEM TRACK WILL BE THE KEY           
TO ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. STILL HAVE SOME              
SHORT RANGE MODEL VARIANCE ON THE 500MB LOW TRACK. IT APPEARS THE               
RUC40 IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM-WRF AND GFS. WILL PLAY             
A 500MB TRACK FROM JUST NORTH OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA AT 6PM SAT TO               
SALIDA TO 12AM SUN TO NEAR LIMON 6AM SUN TO NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST              
KS/SOUTHWEST NE BY 6PM SUN.  MAY ACTUALLY SEE TWO PRECIPITATION                 
PROCESSES TONIGHT. FIRST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM                
GIVEN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WITH THE HIGHEST               
PROBABILITY AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE.        
PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND EL PASO...              
PUEBLO INTO CROWLEY AND KIOWA CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY               
EVENING GIVEN THE PREVIOUS CURRENT ANALYSIS MENTIONED. BY LATE                  
TONIGHT...THIS EVOLVES INTO A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE DRIVEN                        
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS              
DEVELOPING A COMA-CLOUD STRUCTURE. GIVEN THE PROJECTED PATH...THE               
WITH WEATHER SYSTEM/S STORM-RELATIVE QPF AXIS SHOULD BE FROM AROUND             
GUNNISON TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE INTO            
NORTHEAST CO AND NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD BE IN THIS TRACK. ANY              
FAVORED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WOULD ENHANCE QPF VALUES WITHIN THE TRACK            
FOR CERTAIN AREAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TRICKIEST SPOT              
WILL BE FREMONT...TELLER...AND EL PASO COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE ON THE            
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE POTENTIAL QPF AXIS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE CUSP            
COULD BE AROUND TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ANY              
SHIFT IN THE TRACK...COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OR QPF CHANCES                
LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN THIS POPULATED AREA. SNOW LEVEL WILL             
START OUT RELATIVELY HIGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND                 
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND 8K-7K FT MSL ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
MOUNTAINS...FREMONT COUNTY...TELLER COUNTY...AND EL PASO COUNTY.                
CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO                   
MOUNTAIN RANGES INCLUDING ALL OF LAKE COUNTY FOR TOTAL SNOW                     
ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 12 INCHES. FOR TELLER COUNTY...IF THINGS SETUP             
JUST PERFECT...WHICH WILL BE TRICKY...THERE COULD BE 1 TO 7 INCHES              
OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR PIKES PEAK...SO WILL GO WITH A SNOW                    
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. I STILL CANNOT RULE OUT 1             
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PALMER DIVIDE            
AROUND 7K FT MSL...INCLUDING PALMER LAKE...MONUMENT...AND AIR FORCE             
ACADEMY...NEAR THE RAMPART RANGE VERY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND           
POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT COULD BE THE PALMER DIVIDE HAS            
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ALL DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM               
SOUTHERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL DEFORMATION                        
CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL                    
MOUNTAINS...TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE COLD                
POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ACROSS THE             
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS/PALMER DIVIDE/COLORADO SPRINGS SUNDAY GIVEN              
THE PRECIPITATION. METZE                                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE IMPACT DEPARTING CLOSED               
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE ON CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE PAINTED AN               
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER SECTIONS OF                               
TELLER...NORTHERN EL PASO AND SELECT MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM 6 PM                   
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.                                                     
AS CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY AND THEN               
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATER TUESDAY...PROJECT THAT LOW GRADE                
TO NIL POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A GENERALLY                 
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER CWFA WITH               
LOW GRADE TO NIL POPS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST POP POTENTIAL                     
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD                
BE ON THE DECREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN                      
INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FINALLY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES      
SHOULD RUN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY AND THEN CLIMB               
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GIVEN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR MVFR-              
VFR TSRA AROUND THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A                
MORE STEADY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR               
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. FOR PUB AND ALS AIRPORTS...VFR CEILING               
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO                    
SUNDAY. METZE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ058>061.                            
SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR                     
COZ081-082.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR ADDED RFW ZONES                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
455 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING GENERAL TROUGHING OVER              
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION ANCHORED BY DOUBLE BARREL UPPER LOWS            
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AND 00Z/13 SOUNDING PROFILES             
SHOWS VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS (GENERALLY 800MB AND ABOVE) OVER THE            
SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGIONAL PW VALUES ARE                
RIGHT AROUND 0.40" (~33% OF NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER). FURTHER                    
UPSTREAM WE FIND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AND A               
SECOND DEEP TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.                    
AT THE SURFACE...1017MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND                
TENNESSEE VALLEYS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE THE RULE. THESE CLEAR SKIES ARE                 
COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD              
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY              
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S            
ALMOST FORECAST AREA WIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW IMMEDIATE                 
COASTAL LOCATIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT)...                                             
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THIS                
EVENING BEFORE STRONG RIDGING BUILDS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO             
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE                
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WILL VERY SLOWLY                  
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SUNDAY                 
KEEPING CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL AREA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.                         
AFTER A VERY COOL START THIS MORNING...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE                   
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES.                        
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL RAPIDLY WARM THE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES               
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COME AROUND            
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALLOWING FOR               
SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING BACK WESTWARD INTO OUR                
AREA. IT WILL STILL FEEL RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE                      
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO EFFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING                    
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S               
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...TONIGHT WILL COOL SLOWER WITH TEMPERATURES            
BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOWER 60S            
ALONG THE COAST.                                                                
UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO                
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUING TO NOSE DOWN THE            
EAST COAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE AND UPPER             
LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF            
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WITH              
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES            
ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO            
CONTINUE TO BRINGS A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL             
HELP TO BRING LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT.                     
EXPECTING TO SEE MOST LOCATIONS BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOW                      
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON                 
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MIDDLE 60 CLOSER TO THE WATER.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...                                                  
AS IS SOMETIMES THE CASE DURING SEASONAL TRANSITIONS...THE GLOBAL               
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE PINNING DOWN A SOLUTION FOR THE LATER PART            
OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE DOING THE MOST FLIP-FLOPPING             
AT THIS POINT...AND THE LATEST 13/00Z RUN HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z            
GFS SOLUTION. FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAN MY EXTENDED GRIDS TOWARD THE            
GFS SOLUTION. STILL CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE IS             
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
UPPER RIDGING EXITS EAST AND FLATTENS OUT BY EARLY TUESDAY AS                   
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THIS            
TROUGHING HELPING TO PULL A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN OR             
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF              
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE              
FORECAST BY THE END OF TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THE                   
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH              
THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE              
FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE                
GRIDS. MEX NUMBERS WERE RATHER HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AND GENERALLY            
BACKED DOWN THESE READINGS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MAINLY DO TO THE            
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN               
ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S DURING THE                  
SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE             
SOUTHEAST EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE THE PERIOD             
WITH SKC EXCEPT FOR SCT HIGH BASED AFTN CU MAINLY AT TLH...ABY AND              
VLD. ONLY POSSIBLY EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE VLD, WHERE INCREASING               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MAY SET             
THE STAGE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS A COUPLE HOURS                  
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS                  
REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS OUT OF               
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO               
MONDAY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS                
APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT               
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE              
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING                  
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NOT QUITE AS DRY TODAY AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER             
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES WILL STILL BE EXPECTING                 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN                 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AWAY FROM THE                    
COASTLINE. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. DOES                
APPEAR THAT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE                
AREA TO KEEP OUR SOUTHEASTERN FL BIG BEND ZONES FROM REACHING                   
CRITICAL DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED                
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES ARE ALSO LIKELY              
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL                         
LEVELS...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH            
WILL KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. NO FIRE WEATHER                   
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY. RH VALUES            
MAY APPROACH 35 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF            
NORTHERN FLORIDA...HOWEVER CRITICAL DURATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED               
AND DISPERSION INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 75. INCREASING LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW DURING THE EARLY               
AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  84  54  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  83  62  86  65  86 /   0   0   0   0  05                           
DOTHAN       83  54  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       82  52  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     84  55  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   85  57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM                
     CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...                        
     CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                            
     INLAND WALTON... JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...                  
     MADISON...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                            
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOOKING AT THE 07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS THE FEATURES                 
THAT IMMEDIATELY STAND OUT ARE THE DOUBLE-BARREL UPPER LOWS OVER                
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. TROUGHING                
THEN EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE EAST              
COAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM WE SEE                
GENERAL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.                
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CONTINUING TO                   
DELIVER COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE            
FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND THROUGH THE 60S CLOSER              
TO THE COAST. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR REGION-WIDE.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                             
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE             
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT 48            
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WILL SEE THE COLD AIR               
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH BEGIN TO LESSEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE             
GETS A BIT CLOSER AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. SOME               
WEAK TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD            
INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. RIDGING               
THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL REMAIN             
VERY LOW INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                      
GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON            
AND TONIGHT AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST                 
PACKAGE. WITH A BIT LESS MIXING EXPECTED TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD TOP               
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GRADIENT                  
REMAINS RATHER RELAXED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS COMBINED               
WITH EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN FALL                
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.                           
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST            
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK BY            
SUNDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE WITH              
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S COMMON.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...                                                   
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY               
WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING NEXT              
FRONT MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                 
TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVE              
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE BULK OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY             
HEADS WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF                
SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT WASHING OUT. AT THIS POINT...CAN NOT JUSTIFY             
MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH             
THE FRONT NEVER REACHING OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN                 
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.             
GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHING TOWARD            
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE            
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A FAIRLY               
TIGHT GRADIENT HAS RAISED WINDS TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS EARLY THIS                 
MORNING AND EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE GRADIENT            
RELAXES LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING             
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST. A PERIOD             
OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                  
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST DURING THE                 
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF NEAR CAUTIONARY                 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY                 
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR FLORIDA ZONES THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO CRITICAL DURATIONS OF RELATIVE               
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 30 FOR            
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...HOWEVER WINDS              
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND NOT ALLOW RED FLAG                   
CONDITIONS TO BE MET. NOT QUITE AS DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR                    
SATURDAY...BUT GRIDS STILL SHOWING CRITICAL RH VALUES FOR A TIME                
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.            
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL DURATIONS ARE NOT MET...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN              
THE DEWPOINTS WOULD RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS...FOR THIS REASON             
WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL BUT TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE             
COUNTIES AND LET THE FOLLOWING SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE THREAT.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  80  51  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  80  58  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       79  49  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       79  48  82  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     80  53  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   81  55  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM           
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...                
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                    
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:             
     BAY...CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...                 
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA                                                 
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
239 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. H3 RAOBS INDICATE 100KT JET               
STREAK JUST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS WOULD               
INDICATE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST KS TO NEAR KGBD. A SFC LOW WAS                
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH A SECOND LOW TO THE                 
NORTH OF KDDC. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED REASONABLY                      
WELL...ALTHOUGH THEY SEEMED SEVERAL C TO WARM AT H7 AT KLBF...BUT               
SOUNDING DOES HAVE A LARGE SUPERADIABATIC LAYER THAT LOOKS                      
QUESTIONABLE.                                                                   
MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE              
ROCKIES...WITH UKMET AND GFS NOW FORECASTING A MORE ELONGATED                   
TROUGH. NAM...00Z ECMWF...AND SREF MEAN TEND TO FAVOR THE NAM                   
SOLUTION WHICH HAS HAD DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND WILL LEAN IN            
THIS DIRECTION.                                                                 
TONIGHT...SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDING SEVERE             
WX...FOG AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WARM FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY                
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.                  
STRONG CAP WAS OBSERVED ON KDDC SOUNDING...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO               
HOLD ONTO A STRONG CAP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND              
WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER AM A             
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED STORMS IN THE                
EXTREME EAST NEAR A WEAK SFC LOW AS CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP IN              
THIS REGION. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...NEARLY 60KTS OF               
SHEAR DEVELOP ABOVE THE SFC INVERSION SO ROUND OF SEVERE WX                     
DEFINITELY LOOKS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A              
SFC BASED STORM CAN DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE                   
WIDESPREAD AS Q VECTORS INDICATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR                  
ASCENT. H7 AND H85 WAA FIELDS ALONG WITH 305K ISENTROPIC FIELDS ALL             
LINE UP WITH BEST DIV Q FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP            
BEST CHANCES IN THIS AREA. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE A GIVEN                   
TONIGHT AS MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY STILL BE EXPERIENCING FOG                     
THROUGH THE DAY. AM CONCERNED ABOUT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT                   
PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD ASCENT AND LIKELY DRIZZLE FORMATION                  
SHOULD KEEP VISBYS FROM BOTTOMING OUT...BUT AM GOING TO MAKE A LAST             
MINUTE CALL ON POSSIBLE ADVISORY.                                               
SUNDAY-MONDAY...H5 LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVER THE AREA              
ON SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOWS POSITION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND              
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...STRONGEST FORCING WILL                
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND WILL TAILOR POPS ACCORDINGLY. NAM            
STILL SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF SFC BASED TSTMS NEAR THE LOW                    
CENTER/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS              
POINT...BUT WITH COLD H5 LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA...PLENTY OF SHEAR             
AND MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.                 
UPPED POPS IN THE NORTH AS ALL MODELS BEGINNING TO FOCUS IN ON THIS             
AREA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. ISENTROPIC FIELDS BEGIN TO INDICATE                
STRONG DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z AS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE                     
EAST...WITH CAA UP TO H7 BY 06Z. WILL BEGIN TO LOWER POPS AFTER THIS            
TIME PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO SET IN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT                
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BY               
MONDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE                           
EVERYWHERE...AS DEEP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 15Z. SOUNDINGS                 
ACTUALLY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE             
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY BE SPRINKLES...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO            
LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR             
ANY PHASE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION...AS COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN                    
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLDEST MODEL DATA STILL            
SUPPORTS ALL RAIN...BUT WITH POSSIBILITY OF WET BULB EFFECTS AND                
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES IN THE WEST. SET UP LOOKS              
VERY MARGINAL AS ICE GENERATION LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT AS COLD               
AIR MOVES IN...BUT WORTH A SMALL MENTION OF RA/SN EARLY MONDAY                  
MORNING IN THE WEST.                                                            
MONDAY-NIGHT-TUESDAY...H5 RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS             
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER              
THE AREA BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A                 
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE THINK TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE                  
PRETTY COLD. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND ADDED FROST TO FORECAST            
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO             
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE SFC MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA             
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WX...BUT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND 15 OR            
SO DEGREES ABOVE MONDAY.                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...FIRST LOOK AT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE            
IN THE WAY OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. ECMWF               
HAS NOW ABANDONED ITS H5 TROUGH SOLUTION FOR THUR-FRI...BUT GFS NOW             
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE. WITH ALL THE CHANGES BETWEEN           
THE MODELS BETWEEN RUN TO RUN...HARD TO GET TO EXCITED ABOUT ANY ONE            
SOLUTION AND PLAN TO LEAN HEAVILY OF ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA FOR THE                 
FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW MEMBERS WITH A            
STRONGER...DEEPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT ALSO HAVE SEVERAL MEMBERS            
THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER...WHICH ALSO LEADS ME TO LEAN MORE ON MEAN                 
ENSEMBLE DATA. OVERALL MADE RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING                   
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THROUGH 18Z WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. CIGS AROUND             
500 FT OR SO. DENSE FOG WITH VIS 1/4 MILE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT IF            
PRECIP DOESNT FALL. IF PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER THE TAF SITES CIGS/VIS A            
BIT HIGHER BUT AFTER 08Z OR SO AM EXPECTING PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF              
THE AREA. BY 18Z OR SO SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH            
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KGLD. CIGS WILL START TO RISE BUT STILL IN THE              
MVFR/IFR RANGE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
250 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE              
ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHERE 12Z RAOBS INDICATE                   
LARGEST 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING. AREA OF CONVECTION                    
CONTINUED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WHERE 300K                    
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. AT THE                 
SFC...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR            
KSPD...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE GOODLAND CWA WITH EVEN            
A BIT OF DRIZZLE OBSERVED ALONG THE KS AND CO BORDER. BOTH THE NAM              
AND THE GFS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE OKAY...WITH NO LARGE ERRORS NOTED.           
NAM/GFS/UKMET IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EXACT OF THE                 
SYSTEM SUNDAY. NAM IS THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS                  
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH. UKMET AND SREF                
MEAN ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL LIKELY LEAN THIS WAY WITH             
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND FOG              
AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST               
NIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ. MASS CONVERGENCE FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT            
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLJ FORCING OVERNIGHT...WITH FAIRLY STRONG                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON THE 305 AND 310 K SURFACE. MORNING                   
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TONGUE OF HIGH MIXING RATIOS                    
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA ON THIS SURFACE. SOUNDINGS ALSO APPEAR                   
FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE REDEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR             
NOW WILL LEAVE OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS ALREADY HAVE THUNDER                 
CHANCES. WITH NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY               
HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST              
WHERE STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALL EVENING.                                 
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT...ONGOING STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE THE FIRST             
PROBLEM OF THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES                     
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WARM FRONT               
THAT SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH THE            
NAM...GFS AND SREF INDICATE THAT STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG              
THE FRONT SO AM NOT THAT CONFIDENT THAT SFC BASED TSRA WILL DEVELOP             
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT GET TO HIGH ON POPS.  STRONG H5              
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.                      
ISENTROPIC FIELDS...ALONG WITH DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE STRONGEST LIFT             
SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE                     
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. RIGHT              
NOW MODELS SEEM TO KEEP AREA ON THE FRINGE OF THINGS...BUT ENOUGH               
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.                   
SUNDAY-MONDAY...H5 LOW WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS INDICATING A        
FAIRLY STRONG DRY SLOT DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NOTED ON THE              
305K SFC. THIS WILL POSE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE FORECAST ON                
SUNDAY. AS GFS IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION...AND THE MORE NORTH THE            
TROUGH COMES OUT...A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED.             
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IDEA OF BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE NORTH               
AND EAST. GFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED STORMS EARLY SUNDAY            
AFTERNOON WITH PRETTY STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR AND LOW LCL/LFC`S...SO WILL            
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. TROUGH                 
SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH                
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AM GOING TO HOLD ON TO POPS THROUGH             
THE DAY.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM ONE                 
ANOTHER FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH NUMEROUS                  
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 00Z GFS                 
APPEARED TO BE A MAJOR OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO H5 ENSEMBLE MEAN AND            
MEMBERS WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS SHOWING A                                
SLOWER...STRONGER...AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. 06Z GFS WAS CLOSER              
TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS              
THAT LOOK A LOT LIKE THE ECMWF SO THINK WILL LEAN THIS WAY IN THE               
FORECAST BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.                          
ADDED AND INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE THUR-FRI TIMEFRAME...BUT DUE TO            
THE UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. TAKING THE              
ECMWF LITERALLY STILL KEEPS PRECIP TYPE RAIN DURING THIS TIME                   
FRAME...ALTHOUGH CHANGEOVER LINE GETS PRETTY CLOSE TO EASTERN CO BUT            
AS THERE IS NO STRONG CONSENSUS ON SOLUTIONS THINK KEEPING THINGS               
ALL RAIN IS THE WAY TO GO. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY MADE ONLY MINOR                
CHANGES. DID COOL OFF MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY MORNING              
AS MODELS ALL AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE                
AREA...AND MAY SEE SOME WIDESPREAD FROST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THROUGH 18Z AM EXPECTING STRATUS TO REMAIN OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK              
SITES. MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON LIGHT EAST TO                 
NORTHEAST WINDS. FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT THE EXTENT OF IT REGARDING HOW            
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT BUT ITS FAIRLY CERTAIN             
IT WILL DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OVER THE KMCK AREA VS KGLD.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1025 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...AT 15Z HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST                 
COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT PER SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF              
INTERSTATE 70. SAT DATA SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA              
WITH FOG OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.                                      
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON THE 15Z RUC WHICH IS              
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO PRIOR RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM. AM EXPECTING THE               
STRATUS TO CONTINUE ALL DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS BY EARLY                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS HIGHEST 850-800 RH MOVES                 
SLOWLY EAST WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS WELL.                
FOG WILL ALSO START TO DEVELOP GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE                
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO HIGHEST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWS               
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS AS A RESULT WITH 55 TO 60 GENERALLY              
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THOSE              
AREAS WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED.                        
FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES FASTER              
THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
301 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON PROBABILITY OF                      
CONVECTION PRIOR TO AND DURING ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM.                                                                         
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER               
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF            
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. EXPECT ACTIVITY             
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH              
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL                  
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEAST                 
COLORADO AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA PROVIDE A            
FOCUS/LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.            
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY                          
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL REDUCE PROBS OF CONVECTION.                        
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS                  
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLTHEWHILE THE DRYLINE RETROGRADES BY LATE EVENING.             
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE FOCUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...SPAWNED             
CONVECTION OVER W KS WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME                    
ELEVATED WITH TIME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN             
ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A FEW              
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OUT                     
AHEAD. THEREFORE...RETAINED AND MASSAGED ONGOING POP FORECAST.                  
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS INTO THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR PLACEMENT OF SFC             
LOW AT 00Z MON...NAM AT KEARNEY, NE...GFS AT STOCKTON, KS...EURO AT             
PHILLIPSBURG, KS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FORWARD PROGRESSION AND OTHER            
SURFACE FEATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...TOOK A               
BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE IDEA THAT ROBUST CONVECTIVE                   
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG A DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW BY               
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL             
SHIFT NORTHEAST/EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL              
WILL BE DEPENDANT ON AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING REALIZED DURING SUNDAY               
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ATTM...BEST CHANCE OF SVR WILL BE WESTERN ZONES              
OF THE CWA. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BETTER REFINE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.             
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DURING ALL PERIODS.               
DEWPOINTS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR                
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MONDAY AND            
BEYOND.                                                                         
BLAIR                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BKN AC WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL KS COMING IN AROUND 8              
KFT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE CIGS LOWERING WHILE WEAK SFC RIDGING AND                 
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PERSISTS INTO NORTHEAST KS.                   
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS TRIGGERED ISOLATED                
SHRA OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. WITH RUC AND NAM ISENTROPIC CHARTS                  
INDICATING RATHER SMALL AREAS OF LIFT...EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN                 
ISOLATED GIVEN A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. KMHK MAY BE THE ONE               
SITE TO MONITOR FOR PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY.               
WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                  
ANTICIPATE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z SAT DUE            
TO STRONGER LLJ AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                     
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
933 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE                
LATEST RUC SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND LINGERING THROUGH            
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. INCREASED            
CLOUD COVER TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THIS AREA. MODELS ALSO            
SHOW A WEAKENING H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING                
THIS TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP THOUGH. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER AMOUNTS             
ELSEWHERE TO GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE                   
TEMPERATURES MUCH...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ATTM...MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO PLUNGE. AS             
THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...THIS SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP...HOWEVER            
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE REACHED WITH THE HELP           
OF THE INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TEXT...DIGITAL AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS           
WILL BE OUT SOON.                                                               
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. THE CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM           
IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOW                 
TEMPERATURES. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL             
CLOUD...CI/CS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ALSO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD           
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLOUD STREAMING EAST             
FROM AREA OF CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI...BUT ALSO SHOW CLOUD ERODING             
AS IT MOVES EAST. VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN SKY               
COVER WITH OLD FWC SHOWING OVC AT JKL...LOZ AND 5I3 BY 12Z SUNDAY.              
HOWEVER THIS IS OUTLIER WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING SCT TO CLEAR.               
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS....AND GFS AND WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE                  
FOLLOWED IDEA OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT. BUT ALSO EXPECT               
CLOUDS TO REMAIN MAINLY SCATTERED AT BEST...ALTHOUGH SOME BKN BUT               
THIN CS/CI MAY OCCUR.                                                           
WITH SKIES BEGINNING AS CLEAR THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE            
LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S...AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...EXPECT ABOUT          
A 10 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO DEVELOP. THE SLIGHT               
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING             
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING. WE HAD A COUPLE OF COOP REPORTS OF 32 THIS             
MORNING AND A 31 FROM A WEATHER SPOTTER. EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO             
BE IN THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT...BUT THERMAL BELT RIDGES IN THE UPPER            
40S. THE MAVMOS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS TEMPERATURE SPLIT THE                 
BEST...AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                            
ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES           
TO BE IN THE 70S. MAVMOS LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE EAST BASED ON           
ITS PERFORMANCE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF             
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM UP CONTINUES WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SEVERAL             
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT.                                     
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY IN THEIR HANDLING OF NEXT WEEKS              
WEATHER. DGEX AND GFS ARE MUCH SLOWER AND NOT NEARLY AS WET AS ECMWF            
RUN. BOTH GFS AND DGEX FORM A VERY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE 6Z RUN.            
THE GFS BACKED OFF ON THIS FEATURE IN THE 12Z RUN DRAMATICALLY. WITH            
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO WEATHER FOR THE END             
OF NEXT WEEK...WENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH SOME                 
TWEAKS MADE BASED ON THE 6Z DGEX SOLUTION. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES             
OVERALL FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST           
FOR NOW NEXT SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCES AMONGST               
THE DIFFERENT MODELS. CONTINUED TREND OF COOLER THAN MEXMOS DAYTIME             
HIGH TEMPERATURES...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER               
ANTICIPATED WED-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AND THE INCREASED CHANCES OF                   
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE TO           
FRONTAL PASSAGES NEXT WEEK. SKY COVER FORECAST WAS QUITE A CHALLENGE            
WITH THE MODELS ALL COMING WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...SO WENT              
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST           
COVERAGE OF LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS.             
DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE           
THERE. KEPT IN MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT           
TO PERHAPS SPARK AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. GFS ALSO SHOWING A                   
PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY STRONG 850 HPA JET DURING THE DAY                         
TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODEL DATA FOR 3              
DAYS NOW...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORES. THESE           
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE JET FEATURES WILL ALSO             
LEND SUPPORT TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BY INCREASING                 
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE                      
ATMOSPHERE. WENT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE                  
BOARD...WITH THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME             
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOIST              
NORTHWEST FLOW...IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST              
VIRGINIA BORDERS...SO A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST             
FOR THOSE TWO DAYS AS WELL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN             
AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE                
SHOULD BECOME BROKEN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. SCT TO           
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE                    
DECREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH BKN120 IN             
THE TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE AVERAGE SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH                
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF SCT120...WITH CI                           
ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO FOG EXPECTED AT THE TAF                 
SITES...HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST IN THE RIVER            
VALLEYS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SBH/WJM                                                            
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
115 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                         
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE               
TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS PROMOTED AN EXTENSIVE BUT              
THIN CEILING OF STRATO-CU AROUND 5K FT. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN               
THROUGH 14Z AT LEX AND SDF...WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL AND TEMPORARY              
CLEAR AREA PASSING BY.  AT BWG...SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR AROUND               
12Z.                                                                            
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AT LEX...BUT MAY             
GO SCATTERED AT SDF AND BWG BY MID MORNING. CEILINGS LATER TODAY                
WILL REMAIN VFR AT GREATER THAN 3 THOUSAND FEET.                                
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM            
THE NORTH LATER TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN IN PAST                        
DAYS...RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 MPH  THIS UPCOMING AFTERNOON.                       
JSD                                                                             
.SHORT TERM UPDATE:...                                                          
LOOKING AT THE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL RH TRENDS FROM THE RUC AND                   
IR SAT PICS FOR UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WILL HAVE TO                 
GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL PERHAPS THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND            
THEN ONLY WITH SOME LATE NIGHT CLEARING ACROSS THE SWRN THIRD OF FA             
WHILE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WILL UP              
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NERN TWO THIRDS OF FA BECAUSE OF THE             
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. FCST TRENDS BEYOND TONIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS               
TIME. --21                                                                      
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY               
ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COMBINED            
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS VALUES SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES             
TONIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY MORNING. THE OTHER                 
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER. WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR TONIGHT              
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE                
HARDER TO DISSIPATE.                                                            
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
SO FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW                   
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT A SPOKE MOVING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW              
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.               
JA                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
.FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...                                                   
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES TOWARD NEW                
ENGLAND...RELAXING OUR NW FLOW A BIT AS A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP OVER              
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING OVER THE               
PLAINS WILL SETTLE IN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGING             
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE 1000-850MB                   
THICKNESSES STEADILY RISE. ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE               
SUNDAY...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S. SHOULD BE A PRISTINE             
WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.                                                 
BY MONDAY...MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) SEEM TO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS             
WITH THE 4-CORNERS LOW. ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...MAKING             
THE LOW FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS DOES NOT AMPLIFY            
THE RIDGE AS MUCH...AND DEEPENS THE LOW MORE...TAKING IT TOWARD THE             
CWA. EITHER WAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PRODUCE A SFC LOW EAST OF THE            
ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WHERE WARM-AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER             
THE PLAINS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA...MAINLY              
AFFECTING SUCH STATES AS THE HAWKEYE STATE...THE SHOW ME STATE                  
...AND THE LAND OF LINCOLN. BUT OVER OUR AREA...WE WILL HAVE A                  
GOOD SWLY FLOW...HELPING TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK.              
AL                                                                              
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...                                                             
BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE PLAINS` LOW. THE                   
HERCULEAN EAST COAST RIDGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE            
FRONT...SO HAVE KEPT THE CHC POPS TIL AFTER 12Z TUE. AS MENTIONED               
ABOVE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND QUICKER WHICH SEEMS                   
UNLIKELY WITH A 589M HIGH OFF EAST COAST.  OTHER MODELS LIKE DGEX               
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE LESS QPF OVER              
CWA.  EVEN IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...WE WILL NOT GET THAT MUCH QPF                
WITH THIS EVENT...AND FOLLOWED HPC LEAD ON DAYS 5-7.                            
EAST COAST RIDGE AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN WITH DEEP PLAINS TROUGH AND               
MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING DISPLACED NE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS RIVER                
VALLEY. BOTTOM LINE...THE DROUGHT CONTINUES IN EARNEST!                         
JDG                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
958 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...AN EARLY RETURN FLOW HELD TEMPS TO AROUND 60 THIS                     
MORNING IN THE BEAUMONT AREA. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE                       
CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THUS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND                  
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE LOWER HUMIDITIES UNDER A LIGHT EAST TO                      
SOUTHEAST FLOW. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR                  
INTERIOR ZONES BASED ON LATEST FIRST GUESS GFS AND CURRENT RUC.                 
ALSO ADJUSTED TNITE`S MIN TEMP FOR BPT UPWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS           
(RETURN FLOW ALREADY IN PROGRESS THERE).                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                         
..CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...                      
SHORT/LONG TERM...                                                              
NOT MUCH TO SAY...MILD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS                 
TODAY AND TOMORROW REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH LIGHT WINDS. GREAT                 
DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS THE STATE FAIR GOING ON IN                   
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG WITH GOLFING...HIKING...AND FISHING.                      
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE AN                 
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A                 
COLD FRONT IN IT`S WAKE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE                     
COASTAL WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. THIS                 
WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  82  59  82  67 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KBPT  83  62  82  69 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KAEX  81  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KLFT  82  57  82  65 /   0   0   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1032 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH                     
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM ONTARIO TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. LATEST RUC                
AND OBS SHOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WILL                  
TWEAK TEMPS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TNITE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                         
SHORT/LONG TERM...                                                              
MILD WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO THE                 
SOUTHERN STATES AS A SURFACE LOW EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS              
AM. IR IS SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL                  
GULF WITH A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION ANOTHER                  
FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPILLING DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL                
ONLY CONTINUE THE SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE                    
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE GREAT WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS STATE               
FAIR.                                                                           
THE WEATHER WILL BE PERFECT FOR THE FOOTBALL GAMES FOR FRIDAY                   
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY AND WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF GOLF.                          
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL MONDAY... AT THAT TIME AN                  
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING DOWN INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL                  
BRING ANOTHER FRONT AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO THE REGION              
ON TUESDAY.                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLEAR SKIES AND 10 MILES VSBY THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH              
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  82  55  85  62 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KBPT  84  57  85  62 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KAEX  80  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
KLFT  80  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1255 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER SE              
CAN WITH VORTEX CENTERED JUST S OF JAMES BAY. SHRTWV NOTED ON NRN               
FLANK OF THIS FEATURE AND DRIFTING WWD...BUT MSTR ON THE WRN FLANK              
OF THIS CUTOFF IS MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS WWD. AT 03Z ON SAT...WRN            
EDGE OF MSTR/CLD COVER WAS FM THE E END OF LK NIPIGON TO ERY. BUT               
MSTR GRADIENT IS VERY SHARP...SO MOST OF THE FA IS CLR AND CHILLY               
WITH LGT WINDS UNDER SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM YPL INTO WRN LK SUP              
AND CNTRL WI. 00Z RAOB FM YPL AND REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS                 
UNDER THE RDG IS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT 0.28 INCH. OTRW...MORE CLD                 
NOTED OVER W AND CNTRL MN...BUT THIS CLD IS MAKING LTL IF ANY EWD               
PROGRESS INTO RDG/DRY AIRMASS HELD IN PLACE BY CUTOFF LO IN ONTARIO.            
POTENT SHRTWV DROPPING INTO SRN CA IS DEEPENING TROF OVER THE DESERT            
SW.                                                                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE SHRA CHCS OVER THE E TDAY               
ACCOMPANYING DEEP MSTR ON WRN FLANK OF ONTARIO CUTOFF LO AND THEN               
ACRS THE SCNTRL CWA BEGINNING LATE SUN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS                  
TRYING TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF TROF DEEPENING IN THE DESERT SW AND                  
DROPPING SEWD FM SCNTRL CAN.                                                    
FOR TDAY...LATEST NAM/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV               
NOW ROTATING ARND NRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO OVER ONTARIO SWINGING SWD              
ON THE WRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE THIS MRNG BUT E OF ANJ. BOTH MODELS            
SUG MSTR WL REMAIN E OF P53 OR SO WITH SOME LGT PCPN BRUSHING LUCE              
COUNTY BEFORE HGTS BEGIN TO RISE LATE IN THE DAY ONCE SHRTWV MOVES              
TO THE E AND BEGINS TO DRAG CUTOFF EWD AS WELL IN THE AFTN.                     
CONSIDERING DRYNESS OF AIRMASS TO THE W...WL MAINTAIN NOTHING MORE              
THAN A 30 POP OVER THE FAR E IN AREA WHERE NAM/GFS SHOW SOME DPVA/              
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV PASSING TO THE             
OF ANJ AS WELL AS CYC NW FLOW OF CHILLY AIR (H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -2C)            
INTO THE AFTN. OTRW...MIXING TO ABOUT H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS FOR TDAY            
YIELDS HI TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE                
OVER THE SCNTRL AND LLVL NW FLOW WL BE DOWNSLOPING. TEMPS WL BE A               
BIT COOLER OVER THE CLOUDIER E.                                                 
EXPECT A MOCLR AND CHILLY NGT TNGT OVER THE W AND CNTRL WITH HI PRES            
RDG/AXIS OF PWAT AS LO AS 0.25 INCH DOMINATING. ALTHOUGH THE ERN ZNS            
LOOK TO DRY OUT AS WELL...CONCERNED A STEADIER NNW FLOW IN THE PRES             
GRADIENT BTWN RDG AXIS OVER WRN LK SUP AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LO TO               
THE E WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE. WL TEND AOB THE LO END OF               
MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W AND CTNRL BUT NEAR GUIDANCE OVER               
THE E.                                                                          
FOCUS ON SUN SHIFTS TO THE SW AND THE NW. TROF OVER THE DESERT SW               
THIS MRNG PROGGED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE SCNTRL PLAINS BY 00Z MON                 
WHILE ANOTHER SYS RIPPLING SEWD IN NRN BRANCH WNW FLOW ALF LEFT IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING CUTOFF LO TO THE E APRCHS AS WELL. COMPLEX                    
INTERACTION BTWN BRANCHES IS ALWAYS A DIFFICULT ISSUE...BUT 00Z                 
GUIDANCE SEEMS AT LEAST CLOSE ON MANY OF THE DETAILS. GFS IS A BIT              
MORE AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WI BORDER ZNS              
BEFORE 00Z MON...BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SHOW A SFC-H8 DRY LYR THRU 00Z            
EVEN AT IMT/MNM MAINTAINED BY LLVL NE FLOW OUT OF CORE OF DRY                   
AIRMASS CENTERED JUST E OF LK SUP. THUS OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING DRY             
FCST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z UKMET/NAM...ESPECIALLY            
SINCE PLAINS TROF REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED THRU THE DAY.                       
GFS IS THEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DRYING OUT THE FA SUN NGT FOLLOWING              
PASSAGE OF MORE ROBUST SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NRN BRANCH...THE                  
RESULT OF WHICH IS TO KEEP THE MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROF             
SHUNTED TO THE S. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND TENDS TO PHASE THE                  
BRANCHES MORE TO THE W OF THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN A MORE SW FLOW             
ALF AND A CLOUDIER...SHOWERY TIME. PER NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE...WL                
FOLLOW A 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND...WHICH SEEMS WELL REPRESENTED BY              
00Z UKMET. THE UKMET SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NRN BRANCH               
SHRTWV...WHICH ALLOWS DEEPER MSTR/CLD COVER TO LINGER LONGER OVER               
THE SCNTRL AND E SUN NGT AND INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OVERSPREADS THE             
AREA LATER ON MON IN WAKE OF NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PASSAGE. LOWERED FCST            
MIN TEMPS ON MON NGT WITH EXPECTATION OF COOL DRY AIRMASS SPREADING             
INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PASSAGE.                              
CONSIDERING WIDE RANGE OF FCST SCENARIOS AFT MON NGT IN REGARDS TO              
SRN BRANCH TROF/MSTR FCSTS OVER THE UPR LKS...CHOSE NOT TO MAKE ANY             
CHGS AFT MON NGT.                                                               
COORDINATED WITH DLH/GRB/LOT/APX.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD                
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL               
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN               
ONTARIO SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO              
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS HIGH              
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AND LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
105 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME            
LAKE/DIURNALLY INDUCED CU/SC EXPECTED.  PRECIPITATION IS NOT                    
ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL SITES AT THIS POINT.                                
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1023 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                                 
SCATTERED LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT IN OFF OF LAKE            
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION RECEIVED A BOOST IN COVERAGE              
FOR A WHILE AS REMAINING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU MOVED OFF OF CENTRAL               
UPPER MI AND ONTO THE LAKE...WHICH IS A COMMON EVOLUTION. NOW THAT              
THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEGUN             
TO WANE. 00Z APX SOUNDING PEGGED THE INVERSION RIGHT AROUND                     
800MB/-5C...WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IMPLYING INVERSION HEIGHTS                  
AROUND 850MB ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN                  
NON-EXISTENT THUS FAR. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC               
BORDER BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTH...WRAPPING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AROUND ITS WESTERN/SOUTHERN FLANKS AND INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ONTARIO RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF REFLECTIVITY                    
WRAPPING TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME OF THIS NOW SHOWING UP             
ON THE KAPX 88D DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CHANNEL TOWARD                  
MANITOULIN ISLAND. HAVEN`T SEEN ANY PRECIP REPORTS OUT OF WAWA OR               
SOO ONTARIO WITH THIS...DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW LAKE ENHANCED                
BAND DRIFTING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS ALSO AN EAST-WEST                 
ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING OUT INTO LAKE HURON FROM JUST               
EAST OF THE STRAITS...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME RADAR              
RETURNS OFF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT.                                                 
PRECIPITATION PROBLEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY BE                    
CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF                      
NORTHERN LOWER MI SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWNWARD              
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO WIND                  
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL                  
ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK QG FORCING WITH THIS              
DRIVEN MOSTLY BY THERMAL ADVECTION...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS COUPLING HELPING OUT AS WELL. INCREASED               
MOISTURE...WEAK FORCING...AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR               
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED              
TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL INCREASE THE                   
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AFTER 06Z. SOME OF              
THIS MAY JUST GRAZE FAR NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING                
HOURS AS WELL. MEANWHILE...EXPECT AREAS EAST OF A CAD-APN LINE                  
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT.                              
JPB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                          
A MYRIAD OF FORECAST CONCERNS HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...              
NAMELY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES. EARLY               
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER CONVOLUTED UPPER PATTERN...WITH               
A POTENT BUT RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                    
ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY RIDING UP THE NORTHEAST                   
COASTLINE (WHICH MODELS PROG TO PHASE WITH EXISTING ENERGY OVER                 
EASTERN CANADA). THIS HAS LEFT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN                      
PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANNELED VORT LOBE DROPPING              
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WORKING IN TANDEM WITH                  
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (RUC 900-800MB MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF              
75%) AND OVER LAKE DELTA T/S ON THE ORDER OF 15C OR BETTER TO                   
PRODUCE A SMATTERING OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR                   
NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION HAS                 
EVEN BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER                  
INLAND THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE                      
PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FOR                        
TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT                  
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AS OVERALL CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW                     
PATTERN REMAINS INTACT. WITH ONLY SOME MINOR WARM LOW LEVEL                     
WARMING TAKING SHAPE (H85 TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z)...                    
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH DELTA T/S BETTER THAN 13C.              
IN ADDITION...LOSS OF OVER-LAND MIXING WILL CERTAINLY AID IN                    
RESTRUCTURING SOME BANDS OF PRECIP AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A PEAK               
UPSTREAM REVEALS LOW LEVEL DRYING MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF ONTARIO CLOSED LOW. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS OCCURRENCE...WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS/RAOBS INDICATING THIS              
DRYING (950-800MB RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%) SLIPPING INTO                      
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THUS...WHILE DO EXPECT SOME                  
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT                         
HOURS...APPEARS LOW LEVEL DRYING MAY BRING AN ABRUPT END AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER COUNTIES...WHILE EASTERN UPPER                   
HANGS ONTO RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN BETTER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. IN                  
ADDITION...WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES                 
ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS              
UPPER LOW FURTHER OCCLUDES AND GETS SHUNTED SOUTH...WITH                        
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AS VORT MAX DROPS ACROSS LAKE HURON.              
APPEARS BEST 700-500MR -DIVQ WILL RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE                       
REGION...THOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...                      
PARTICULARLY WITH A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.              
AS FOR CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES...CELLULAR NATURE OF CU/STRATOCU                
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA PORTENDS LIKELY RAPID CLEARING            
TOWARD SUNSET...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AIDING             
THIS PROCESS. ELSEWHERE...APPEARS LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU LIKELY TO                
HOLD FOR A WHILE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER BEFORE                      
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN                   
OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS                
JUST HOW FAR WEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPLY                 
OCCLUDED LOW TO THE EAST WILL WRAP. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE THEIR OWN               
SOLUTIONS REGARDING WESTWARD DEGREE OF RH INTO TOMORROW                         
AFTERNOON...BUT A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE               
SATELLITE/PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST LOW/MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER                
LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPERATURES HIGHLY             
DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER (REFERENCE THIS MORNING WITH                 
COOLER THAN EXPECTED READINGS UNDER CLEARING SKIES). BEST GUESS FOR             
TONIGHT GIVEN ALREADY COOL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER 20S TO              
MID 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...TEMP                 
FORECAST RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL                
TREND THINGS UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MORE            
SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS (900-300MB RH ONLY                
AROUND 30-40%)...BUT HOLD NUMBERS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE               
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.                              
MARINE SIDE OF THINGS...APPROACH OF VORT LOBE/SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT             
APPEARS IT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SUFFICIENT TO KICK UP WINDS ON             
AREA WATERS...CENTERED ON ABOUT 12Z WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT                  
GREATEST. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT CURRENTLY BEING             
MET IN MOST SPOTS...ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT              
INTO MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. WILL THEREFORE EXPAND SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH               
18Z BEFORE GRADIENT AGAIN WEAKENS. EARLIER COMMENT ABOUT POTENTIAL              
GALES ON THE HURON SIDE APPEARS JUSTIFIED...BUT THIS EVENT LOOKS TO             
COME JUST A TAD SHORT WITH A MAXIMUM WIND OF ONLY 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT             
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. STILL SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED WITH                  
COASTAL CONVERGENCE COMING INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF              
ON GALE ISSUANCE FOR NOW.                                                       
LAWRENCE                                                                        
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...             
LOTS OF QUESTIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE                
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW                   
CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MOVEMENT AND AFFECTS OF THIS                
FEATURE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS               
PORTION OF THE PACKAGE.                                                         
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL                   
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE            
BULLISH WITH THE SOUTHWEST PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                          
MEANWHILE...THE GFS/UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE             
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS SCENARIO            
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. MEAN 900-700 MB RH              
SHOWS A LARGE RANGE FROM ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN             
80 AND 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST AT 00Z SUN. THEREFORE...PARTLY CLOUDY TO            
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY               
NORTHEAST. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY                          
DISSIPATES/MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A            
LARGE RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS            
OR LESS. LOW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR SOUTHWEST TO THE               
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST (DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER).                          
SUNDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL TO THE EAST AWAY FROM               
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS                   
ANOTHER UPPER LOW (IN THE SERIES) BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS INCREASE MID            
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT BEFORE A GOOD DEAL            
OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SEASONABLE MIDDLE 50S TO               
AROUND 60.                                                                      
SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ALL BRING A                
DIFFERENT SPIN TO THE MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW.            
BLOCKING NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD THIS SYSTEM              
AT BAY. MODELS IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER PROGRESS THIS FEATURE TOWARD              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY STALL IT OUT (WHILE WEAKENING              
IT) OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TO START THE BALL                    
ROLLING...A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IS SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION             
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LEADING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN                 
LOWER. THE UPPER LOW THEN GETS CLOSE ENOUGH ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY             
STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY SO WILL ADD POPS INTO THESE             
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S            
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.                                        
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING                      
OFFICES...WILL ASSUME THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS DISSIPATED/MOVED OFF TO            
OUR EAST ON THURSDAY (WHICH MAY BE A STRETCH). THIS WILL LEAD TO                
LEAVING THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN WHAT SEEMS               
LIKE AN ENDLESS PARADE THEN MARCHES TOWARD THE AREA SO WILL BRING IN            
MORE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE             
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS BETWEEN 40 AND 45.                             
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1023 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SCATTERED LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT IN              
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION RECEIVED A BOOST              
IN COVERAGE FOR A WHILE AS REMAINING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU MOVED OFF              
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ONTO THE LAKE...WHICH IS A COMMON                       
EVOLUTION. NOW THAT THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED...                  
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE. 00Z APX SOUNDING PEGGED THE                  
INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 800MB/-5C...WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS                      
IMPLYING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 850MB ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE              
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT THUS FAR. MEANWHILE...UPPER                 
LOW ALONG ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTH...                     
WRAPPING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND ITS WESTERN/SOUTHERN FLANKS                
AND INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ONTARIO RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING A               
BROAD AREA OF REFLECTIVITY WRAPPING TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...             
SOME OF THIS NOW SHOWING UP ON THE KAPX 88D DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS               
THE NORTH CHANNEL TOWARD MANITOULIN ISLAND. HAVEN`T SEEN ANY                    
PRECIP REPORTS OUT OF WAWA OR SOO ONTARIO WITH THIS...DOES APPEAR               
TO BE A NARROW LAKE ENHANCED BAND DRIFTING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.                
THERE IS ALSO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDING OUT              
INTO LAKE HURON FROM JUST EAST OF THE STRAITS...WHICH HAS ALSO                  
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME RADAR RETURNS OFF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT.                   
PRECIPITATION PROBLEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY BE                    
CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF                      
NORTHERN LOWER MI SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWNWARD              
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER TO WIND                  
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL                  
ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK QG FORCING WITH THIS              
DRIVEN MOSTLY BY THERMAL ADVECTION...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS COUPLING HELPING OUT AS WELL. INCREASED               
MOISTURE...WEAK FORCING...AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR               
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED              
TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL INCREASE THE                   
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AFTER 06Z. SOME OF              
THIS MAY JUST GRAZE FAR NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING                
HOURS AS WELL. MEANWHILE...EXPECT AREAS EAST OF A CAD-APN LINE                  
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT.                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                         
A MYRIAD OF FORECAST CONCERNS HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...              
NAMELY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES. EARLY               
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER CONVOLUTED UPPER PATTERN...WITH               
A POTENT BUT RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                    
ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY RIDING UP THE NORTHEAST                   
COASTLINE (WHICH MODELS PROG TO PHASE WITH EXISTING ENERGY OVER                 
EASTERN CANADA). THIS HAS LEFT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN                      
PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANNELED VORT LOBE DROPPING              
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WORKING IN TANDEM WITH                  
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (RUC 900-800MB MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF              
75%) AND OVER LAKE DELTA T/S ON THE ORDER OF 15C OR BETTER TO                   
PRODUCE A SMATTERING OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR                   
NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION HAS                 
EVEN BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER                  
INLAND THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE                      
PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FOR                        
TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT                  
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AS OVERALL CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW                     
PATTERN REMAINS INTACT. WITH ONLY SOME MINOR WARM LOW LEVEL                     
WARMING TAKING SHAPE (H85 TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z)...                    
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH DELTA T/S BETTER THAN 13C.              
IN ADDITION...LOSS OF OVER-LAND MIXING WILL CERTAINLY AID IN                    
RESTRUCTURING SOME BANDS OF PRECIP AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A PEAK               
UPSTREAM REVEALS LOW LEVEL DRYING MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF ONTARIO CLOSED LOW. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS OCCURRENCE...WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS/RAOBS INDICATING THIS              
DRYING (950-800MB RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%) SLIPPING INTO                      
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THUS...WHILE DO EXPECT SOME                  
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT                         
HOURS...APPEARS LOW LEVEL DRYING MAY BRING AN ABRUPT END AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER COUNTIES...WHILE EASTERN UPPER                   
HANGS ONTO RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN BETTER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. IN                  
ADDITION...WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES                 
ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS              
UPPER LOW FURTHER OCCLUDES AND GETS SHUNTED SOUTH...WITH                        
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AS VORT MAX DROPS ACROSS LAKE HURON.              
APPEARS BEST 700-500MR -DIVQ WILL RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE                       
REGION...THOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...                      
PARTICULARLY WITH A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.              
AS FOR CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES...CELLULAR NATURE OF CU/STRATOCU                
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA PORTENDS LIKELY RAPID CLEARING            
TOWARD SUNSET...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AIDING             
THIS PROCESS. ELSEWHERE...APPEARS LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU LIKELY TO                
HOLD FOR A WHILE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER BEFORE                      
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN                   
OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS                
JUST HOW FAR WEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPLY                 
OCCLUDED LOW TO THE EAST WILL WRAP. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE THEIR OWN               
SOLUTIONS REGARDING WESTWARD DEGREE OF RH INTO TOMORROW                         
AFTERNOON...BUT A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE               
SATELLITE/PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST LOW/MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER                
LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPERATURES HIGHLY             
DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER (REFERENCE THIS MORNING WITH                 
COOLER THAN EXPECTED READINGS UNDER CLEARING SKIES). BEST GUESS FOR             
TONIGHT GIVEN ALREADY COOL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER 20S TO              
MID 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...TEMP                 
FORECAST RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL                
TREND THINGS UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MORE            
SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS (900-300MB RH ONLY                
AROUND 30-40%)...BUT HOLD NUMBERS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE               
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.                              
MARINE SIDE OF THINGS...APPROACH OF VORT LOBE/SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT             
APPEARS IT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SUFFICIENT TO KICK UP WINDS ON             
AREA WATERS...CENTERED ON ABOUT 12Z WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT                  
GREATEST. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT CURRENTLY BEING             
MET IN MOST SPOTS...ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT              
INTO MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. WILL THEREFORE EXPAND SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH               
18Z BEFORE GRADIENT AGAIN WEAKENS. EARLIER COMMENT ABOUT POTENTIAL              
GALES ON THE HURON SIDE APPEARS JUSTIFIED...BUT THIS EVENT LOOKS TO             
COME JUST A TAD SHORT WITH A MAXIMUM WIND OF ONLY 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT             
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. STILL SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED WITH                  
COASTAL CONVERGENCE COMING INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF              
ON GALE ISSUANCE FOR NOW.                                                       
LAWRENCE                                                                        
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...             
LOTS OF QUESTIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE                
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW                   
CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MOVEMENT AND AFFECTS OF THIS                
FEATURE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS               
PORTION OF THE PACKAGE.                                                         
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL                   
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE            
BULLISH WITH THE SOUTHWEST PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                          
MEANWHILE...THE GFS/UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE             
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS SCENARIO            
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. MEAN 900-700 MB RH              
SHOWS A LARGE RANGE FROM ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN             
80 AND 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST AT 00Z SUN. THEREFORE...PARTLY CLOUDY TO            
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY               
NORTHEAST. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY                          
DISSIPATES/MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A            
LARGE RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS            
OR LESS. LOW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR SOUTHWEST TO THE               
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST (DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER).                          
SUNDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL TO THE EAST AWAY FROM               
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS                   
ANOTHER UPPER LOW (IN THE SERIES) BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS INCREASE MID            
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT BEFORE A GOOD DEAL            
OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SEASONABLE MIDDLE 50S TO               
AROUND 60.                                                                      
SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ALL BRING A                
DIFFERENT SPIN TO THE MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW.            
BLOCKING NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD THIS SYSTEM              
AT BAY. MODELS IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER PROGRESS THIS FEATURE TOWARD              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY STALL IT OUT (WHILE WEAKENING              
IT) OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TO START THE BALL                    
ROLLING...A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IS SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION             
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LEADING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN                 
LOWER. THE UPPER LOW THEN GETS CLOSE ENOUGH ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY             
STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY SO WILL ADD POPS INTO THESE             
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S            
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.                                        
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING                      
OFFICES...WILL ASSUME THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS DISSIPATED/MOVED OFF TO            
OUR EAST ON THURSDAY (WHICH MAY BE A STRETCH). THIS WILL LEAD TO                
LEAVING THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN WHAT SEEMS               
LIKE AN ENDLESS PARADE THEN MARCHES TOWARD THE AREA SO WILL BRING IN            
MORE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE             
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS BETWEEN 40 AND 45.                             
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
334 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A MYRIAD OF FORECAST CONCERNS HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND            
SATURDAY...NAMELY LAKE EFEFCT PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND                        
TEMPERATURES. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER CONVOLUTED                
UPPER PATTERN...WITH A POTENT BUT RAPIDLY OCCLUDING UPPER LOW ACROSS            
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY RIDING UP THE                
NORTHEAST COASTLINE (WHICH MODELS PROG TO PHASE WITH EXISTING ENERGY            
OVER EASTERN CANADA). THIS HAS LEFT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN                 
PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANNELED VORT LOBE DROPPING              
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WORKING IN TANDEM WITH                  
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (RUC 900-800MB MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF              
75%) AND OVERLAKE DELTA T/S ON THE ORDER OF 15C OR BETTER TO PRODUCE            
A SMATTERING OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST FLOW            
AREAS. ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION HAS EVEN BEEN                      
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN                
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY              
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FOR TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST QUESTION             
REMAINS COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AS OVERALL                 
CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINS INTACT. WITH ONLY SOME              
MINOR WARM LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKING SHAPE (H85 TEMPS RISE TO AROUND             
0C BY 12Z)...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD WITH DELTA T/S BETTER            
THAN 13C. IN ADDITION...LOSS OF OVER-LAND MIXING WILL CERTAINLY AID             
IN RESTRUCTURING SOME BANDS OF PRECIP AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A PEAK            
UPSTREAM REVEALS LOW LEVEL DRYING MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD WESTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF ONTARIO CLOSED LOW. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS            
OCCURRENCE...WITH FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS/RAOBS INDICATING THIS DRYING            
(950-800MB RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%) SLIPPING INTO NORTHERN LOWER              
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THUS...WHILE DO EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...APPEARS LOW LEVEL                  
DRYING MAY BRING AN ABRUPT END AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER             
COUNTIES...WHILE EASTERN UPPER HANGS ONTO RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN BETTER            
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR                  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE             
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW FURTHER OCCLUDES AND GETS SHUNTED            
SOUTH...WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AS VORT MAX DROPS ACROSS             
LAKE HURON. APPEARS BEST 700-500MR -DIVQ WILL RESIDE JUST EAST OF               
THE REGION...THOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...                  
PARTICULARLY WITH A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.              
AS FOR CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES...CELLULAR NATURE OF CU/STRATOCU                
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA PORTENDS LIKELY RAPID CLEARING            
TOWARD SUNSET...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AIDING             
THIS PROCESS. ELSEWHERE...APPEARS LAKE DRIVEN STRATOCU LIKELY TO                
HOLD FOR A WHILE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER BEFORE                      
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL DRYING KICKS IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN                   
OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS                
JUST HOW FAR WEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPLY                 
OCCLUDED LOW TO THE EAST WILL WRAP. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE THEIR OWN               
SOLUTIONS REGARDING WESTWARD DEGREE OF RH INTO TOMORROW                         
AFTERNOON...BUT A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE               
SATELLITE/PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST LOW/MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER                
LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPERATURES HIGHLY             
DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER (REFERENCE THIS MORNING WITH                 
COOLER THAN EXPECTED READINGS UNDER CLEARING SKIES). BEST GUESS FOR             
TONIGHT GIVEN ALREADY COOL READINGS THIS AFTERNON IS UPPER 20S TO               
MID 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...TEMP                  
FORECAST RATHER IFFY PENDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL                
TREND THINGS UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MORE            
SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS (900-300MB RH ONLY                
AROUND 30-40%)...BUT HOLD NUMBERS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE               
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.                              
MARINE SIDE OF THINGS...APPROACH OF VORT LOBE/SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT             
APPEARS IT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SUFFICIENT TO KICK UP WINDS ON             
AREA WATERS...CENTERED ON ABOUT 12Z WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT                  
GREATEST. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT CURRENTLY BEING             
MET IN MOST SPOTS...ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TONIGHT              
INTO MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. WILL THEREFORE EXPAND SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH               
18Z BEFORE GRADIENT AGAIN WEAKENS. EARLIER COMMENT ABOUT POTENTIAL              
GALES ON THE HURON SIDE APPEARS JUSTIFIED...BUT THIS EVENT LOOKS TO             
COME JUST A TAD SHORT WITH A MAXIMUM WIND OF ONLY 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT             
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. STILL SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED WITH                  
COASTAL CONVERGENCE COMING INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF              
ON GALE ISSUANCE FOR NOW.                                                       
LAWRENCE                                                                        
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT                        
FRIDAY)...LOTS OF QUESTIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE EXTENDED                 
MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF UPPER            
LOW CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER              
THE NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MOVEMENT AND AFFECTS OF THIS            
FEATURE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS               
PORTION OF THE PACKAGE.                                                         
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL                   
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE            
BULLISH WITH THE SOUTHWEST PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                          
MEANWHILE...THE GFS/UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE             
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS SCENARIO            
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. MEAN 900-700 MB RH              
SHOWS A LARGE RANGE FROM ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN             
80 AND 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST AT 00Z SUN. THEREFORE...PARTLY CLOUDY TO            
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY               
NORTHEAST. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY                          
DISSIPATES/MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A            
LARGE RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS            
OR LESS. LOW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR SOUTHWEST TO THE               
UPPER 30S NORTHEAST (DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER).                          
SUNDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL TO THE EAST AWAY FROM               
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS                   
ANOTHER UPPER LOW (IN THE SERIES) BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS INCREASE MID            
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT BEFORE A GOOD DEAL            
OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SEASONABLE MIDDLE 50S TO               
AROUND 60.                                                                      
SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ALL BRING A                
DIFFERENT SPIN TO THE MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW.            
BLOCKING NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD THIS SYSTEM              
AT BAY. MODELS IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER PROGRESS THIS FEATURE TOWARD              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY STALL IT OUT (WHILE WEAKENING              
IT) OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. TO START THE BALL                    
ROLLING...A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IS SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION             
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LEADING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN                 
LOWER. THE UPPER LOW THEN GETS CLOSE ENOUGH ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY             
STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY SO WILL ADD POPS INTO THESE             
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S            
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.                                        
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING                      
OFFICES...WILL ASSUME THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS DISSIPATED/MOVED OFF TO            
OUR EAST ON THURSDAY (WHICH MAY BE A STRETCH). THIS WILL LEAD TO                
LEAVING THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN WHAT SEEMS               
LIKE AN ENDLESS PARADE THEN MARCHES TOWARD THE AREA SO WILL BRING IN            
MORE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE             
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS BETWEEN 40 AND 45.                             
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /ISSUED 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                                   
HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE               
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY STRATOCU CLOUD DECK IN PLACE.                        
OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE NOTED AROUND                   
KPLN/KTVC THROUGH LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDS NORTHWEST.               
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY                    
OVERNIGHT HOURS...INITIALLY AROUND KAPN WHERE THINGS SHOULD SCATTER             
BY 00Z GIVEN DIURNAL NATURE TO THE CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY AROUND               
KPLN/KTVC LATE WITH LOSS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OCCLUDED LOW                    
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO WILL THEN SPREAD               
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIAN TOWARD                           
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING AN MVFR CLOUD DECK BACK INTO                          
ALPENA...AND PERHAPS THE OTHER TWO SITES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON                 
THIS SCENARIO SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OUTSIDE OF               
KAPN.                                                                           
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
125 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST                
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY STRATOCU CLOUD DECK IN                  
PLACE. OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE NOTED                   
AROUND KPLN/KTVC THROUGH LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDS                   
NORTHWEST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND               
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...INITIALLY AROUND KAPN WHERE THINGS MAY                  
SCATTER BY 00Z GIVEN DIURNAL NATURE TO THE CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY              
AROUND KPLN/KTVC LATE WITH LOSS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OCCLUDED                 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO WILL THEN                  
SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIAN TOWARD                    
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING AN MVFR CLOUD DECK BACK INTO                          
ALPENA...AND PERHAPS THE OTHER TWO SITES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON                 
THIS SCENARIO SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OUTSIDE OF               
KAPN.                                                                           
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                        
UPDATE...RIGHT ABOUT ON SCHEDULE (AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS THE                     
13TH)...THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING...AND NO SURPRISE GIVEN 12Z APX RAOB            
SHOWING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW 0C (THOUGH CLOUD TOP                 
TEMPS AROUND -10C JUST ABOUT THE MINIMUM TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT                  
ICE). OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...                
WITH DEEPLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...AND                  
OVERALL PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW INTACT ACROSS NORTHERN                         
MICHIGAN...BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM                    
SLOWLY PIVOTS SOUTHWARD. NOTABLE CHANNELED VORT ROTATING AROUND                 
THE MAIN GYRE IN CONCERT WITH COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (H85 TEMPS                 
AROUND -3C TO -5C) AND GRADUALLY VEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST HAS PROVIDED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS (WITH A LITTLE                  
SNOW MIXED IN PER ABOVE INFO) FOR THE FAVORED AREAS ACROSS                      
NORTHWEST LOWER...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN               
SEEING SOME SUN THIS MORNING GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW REGIME. THE                 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS THAT OF LAKE                  
EFFECT CHANCES AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGHS.                                      
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS IT WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH            
ONLY A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE FLOW REGIME TOWARD PURE NORTHWEST BY               
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE 12Z APX RAOB WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE OVERALL LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (900-700MB RH OF LESS THAN               
50%)...APPEARS EARLY MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED INITIALLY DRIER                   
AIRMASS OWING TO OVERNIGHT DOWNSLOPE/CLEARING SKIES. MOISTURE                   
OBVIOUSLY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT PRODUCTION PER CURRENT RADAR               
PICS...WITH LATEST LATEST RUC INDICATIVE OF REALITY WITH 900-700MB              
RH IN EXCESS OF 80%. OVERALL GOING POPS FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS                
THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE ON TARGET...AND PREFER TO KEEP                        
SCATTERED WORDING AS EXPECT AFTERNOON DISRUPTION TO OCCUR WITH                  
INCREASING OVER-LAND MIXING (AND PERHAPS SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE              
BY MID AFTERNOON).                                                              
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DECIDED TO RAISE NUMBERS                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE            
AFTERNOON AND READINGS OFF TO A QUICK START. THAT SAID...STILL                  
EXPECT TO SEE STRATOCU FILL IN FOR ALL AREAS TODAY GIVEN SUFFICIENT             
MOISTURE AND THERMAL TROUGHING FIRMLY IN PLACE. HIGHS UPPER 40S                 
HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY             
SOME MID 50S SOUTHEAST WHERE SUN WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THROUGH               
ABOUT NOON.                                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI                                      
LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DUAL UPPER             
LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE                   
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  WEAK BACKDOOR SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSING                
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                
UPPER EAST OF I-75 AND TIP OF THE MITT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE                    
NORTHEAST (DOWNSLOPING)...WHILE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE               
DOWN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE.  850MB              
TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED AROUND THE -3C ISOTHERM...WHILE COLD            
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE MID-LEVELS (INCREASING INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS) AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH.  MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP                  
CHANCES WITH LINGERING UPPER LOW TO THE NE OF THE AREA.                         
TODAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY (MAYBE A SLIGHT                 
DRIFT TO THE SW) ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  INVERTED NNW-SSE             
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO BACK OVER THE                 
COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A              
NW DIRECTION ACROSS THE CWA.  ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                   
SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH ONGOING LOW/MID-LEVEL COLD                               
ADVECTION...BACKING WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE                    
(900-700MB RH 45-60 PCT) MEANS ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN              
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  REGARDLESS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU WILL              
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL                
TROUGHING...SO A DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LOOKS REASONABLE.  HIGHS              
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOOKS GOOD.                                           
TONIGHT...VORT LOBE CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER            
LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND ITS WESTERN FLANK AND CLIP THE NE CWA.                   
DEEPER MOISTURE (900-700MB RH INCREASES GREATER THAN 70 PCT) WILL               
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND TIP OF THE MITT WHILE 850MB TEMPS               
REMAIN IN THE MINUS 3-4 RANGE.  SHOULD THEREFORE SEE AN UPTICK IN               
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD            
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD                  
REMAIN MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITHIN WNW FLOW REGIMES AS THE DEEPER              
MOISTURE JUST DOES NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF M68.  WINDS INCREASE AS THE             
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT LOBE.  850MB                 
WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH COASTAL                             
CONVERGENCE...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR NE LOWER.  WILL LET               
DAY CREW CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE NEW DATA...AS ITS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.            
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE            
EAST WHILE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.               
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON SATURDAY...AND               
THEREFORE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS                
REMAIN STEADY IN THE NW DIRECTION.  850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT TO            
NEAR 0C...BUT WITH DELTA T/S REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS...STILL                 
PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NW FAVORED               
FLOW.  BELIEVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NW LOWER WILL DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND DIURNAL DISRUPTION TAKES ITS              
TOLL.  HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL OVERNIGHT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO              
MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER.                                                        
MPC                                                                             
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKED MID LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN (FEATURING            
CONTRA-ROTATING UPPER LOWS) THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS STILL PROJECTED TO PULL OUT INTO THE              
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING              
AND A MODEST WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT IDEA                
WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS LEADING TO FAIRLY                
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FEATURING PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY                 
SKIES TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SO...VERY LITTLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED              
TO THE GOING SUNDAY FORECAST.                                                   
BIGGER FORECAST TROUBLES MATERIALIZE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.               
SPECIFICALLY...THE DEGREE OF PHASING THAT MAY OCCUR OVER THE UPPER              
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW MIGRATING            
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL               
CANADA. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS IDEA             
AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FAVOR OF A WEAKER ECMWF. HOWEVER...12/00Z                
ECMWF DATA GOING THE WAY OF THE GFS WITH STRONGER PHASING INDICATED             
AND SUGGESTS BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY INDUCED PRECIP DEVELOPING AND            
SPREADING INTO THE STATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (AGAIN SIMILAR TO               
THE GFS). OBVIOUSLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. BUT IN LIGHT              
OF THE LATEST ECMWF DO FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD POPS TO AT LEAST THE               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THIS                
SCENARIO HOLDS PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER EXTENDED                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY PLOW               
OVER THE GOING FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY.                            
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
120 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER            
ERN CANADA WITH PAIR OF CLOSED LO CENTERS JUST S OF JAMES BAY MOVING            
SSW AND THE OTHER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVG E TENDING TO                
SPIN ARND EACH OTHER WITHIN THE AREA OF LOWER HGTS. THERE IS A SHARP            
GRADIENT OF H85-7 MSTR ON THE WRN FLANK OF THIS TROF AND TO THE E OF            
RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY.              
ALTHOUGH THE UPR LO NEAR JAMES BAY APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT W            
OF DUE S...WV IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPER MSTR ON ITS NW FLANK IS                  
TENDING TO PUSH MORE TO THE W ACRS NCNTRL ONTARIO. EVEN THOUGH THE              
DEEPER MSTR IS CURRENTLY TO THE E...QUITE A BIT OF SC NOTED IN THE              
LLVL NLY FLOW BTWN SFC RDG AXIS OVER WRN LK SUP AND LO PRES TO THE              
E. 00Z TAMDAR SDNG SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO SHARP             
INVRN ARND H85...MARKING THE SUBSIDENCE INVRN ABV LLVL THERMAL                  
TROFFING. SCT LK EFFECT SHRA ARE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE NCNTRL ZNS            
WHERE LLVL NLY FLOW IS UPSLOPING. EVEN THOUGH THE LOWEST TEMP AT THE            
INVRN BASE IS ONLY -6C...NOT TYPICALLY LO ENUF TO SUPPORT ICE                   
NUCLEATION...SOME SN HAS MIXED IN WITH THE RA SINCE LAST EVNG OVER              
THE HIER TERRAIN. MORE BRKS IN THE CLD NOTED OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE              
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND OVER THE W...CLOSER TO THE RDG AXIS AND            
DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL/INL RAOBS. ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER              
SCNTRL CAN IS LIFTING NEWD OVER RDG AXIS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA               
AND BRINGING A BAND OF CLD/SHRA AS FAR E AS WRN MN.                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE CLD TRENDS/SHRA CHCS IN NNW FLOW            
THAT IS FCST TO PERSIST BTWN RDG TO THE W AND AREA OF LOWER HGTS TO             
THE E. ONE CHALLENGE WL BE DETERMINING WHETHER ANY DEEPER MSTR TO               
THE E ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LO JUST S OF JAMES BAY CAN ROTATE FAR ENUF            
TO THE W TO BRING ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE LK EFFECT SHRA OVER LK SUP.            
BOTH THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED STEADILY WWD WITH TRACK/POSITION OF               
UPR LO S OF JAMES BAY MOVING TO THE SSW. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE HIER             
H7 RH BACKING INTO THE E HALF OF LK SUP BY 00Z THIS EVNG BUT                    
REMAINING JUST TO THE NE OF THE LAND CWA THRU THAT TIME. AT THE SAME            
TIME...MODEL SHOWS THE LLVL FLOW BACKING MORE NW THRU THE DAY AS A              
SFC HI CENTER BLDS INTO WI. THIS CHANGE IN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MORE               
CLRG OVER THE NCNTRL ZNS AS FLOW OFF LK SUP BECOMES LESS FVRBL BUT              
MORE CLD OVER THE E. HOWEVER...ANY PCPN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH            
DIURNAL HTG TENDING TO DISRUPT ANY LK EFFECT PCPN AND LOWERING LLVL             
RH WITH INFUSION OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW/INSOLATION. MIXING TO H85 OR            
SO ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS ARND 45 OVER THE HIER TERRAIN              
OF THE NW TO THE LO 50S OVER THE SCNTRL ARND MNM.                               
TNGT...NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BACKING MORE SUBSTANTIAL MSTR SWWD             
THAN THE GFS. CONSIDERING RECENT MODEL TRENDS IN HI AMPLITUDE                   
BLOCKING PATTERN AS WELL AS WV IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPER MSTR BACKING              
FARTHER W...WL TEND TOWARD THE NAM FCST SCENARIO. NAM EVEN GENERATES            
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE LLVL CYC NW FLOW WL HAVE A                 
LONGER FETCH ACRS THE ERN LK IN PRESENCE OF H85 THERMAL TROFFING.               
ADDED CHC POPS FOR THESE LK EFFECT SHRA OVER AREAS NR LK SUP E OF               
MUNISING AFT MIDNGT WHEN DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES. TENDED TOWARD THE HIER            
ETA MOS FOR THE ERN ZNS BUT TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS FOR THE                    
INTERIOR W...WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOCLR IN PRESENCE OF              
PWAT BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH.                                                   
TENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM AGAIN ON SAT WITH MORE MSTR/CLDS/CHC               
POPS LINGERING OVER THE ERN ZNS WITH PERSISTENT CYC NW LLVL FLOW                
UNDER DEEPER MSTR. THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE W...AND MIXING            
TO H85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 50S RANGE             
OVER THE W AND SCNTRL.                                                          
NAM FINALLY SHOWS CLOSED LO PULLING FAR ENUF TO THE E ON SAT NGT                
THAT MID LVL MSTR BEGINS TO DEPART THE ERN ZNS. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY             
NGT SETTING UP OVER THE INTERIOR W WITH LGT WINDS UNDER SFC RDG                 
AXIS. WL GO NEAR THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS BUT NOT              
TOO CHILLY AS NAM SHOWS PWAT NO LOWER THAN ABOUT 0.45                           
INCH.                                                                           
PER NCEP GUIDANCE...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A 00Z CNDN/12Z ECMWF                    
SCENARIO FOR SUN INTO MON. THESE MODELS SHOW A NRN BRANCH SHRTWV                
MOVING INTO THE UPR GRT LKS ON SUN AND SUPPRESSING POTENT SHRTWV IN             
THE SRN BRANCH FOR THE MOST PART TO THE S. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO             
BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE BLOCKY UPR PATTERN THAT HAS DVLPD              
OVER ERN CANADA. TO MESH BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUMPED               
POPS UP TO 20 ALG THE WI BORDER AND EVEN TO 30 IN SRN MNM COUNTY ON             
SUN NGT WHEN CNDN MODEL SHOWS SHRTWV INTERACTING WITH SOMEWHAT HIER             
MSTR OVER WI. MAINTAINED DRY FCST FARTHER N WHERE DRY AIR WL BE MORE            
RESILIENT. TENDED TO DCRS CLD COVER ON MON WITH HI PRES UNDER UPR               
RDGING IN SCNTRL CAN BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS PER CNDN MODEL AND MOST              
RECENT NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CIGS WILL CONTINUE MVFR/VFR AT KCMX AND KSAW WHILE LONGER INTO THIS             
EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE SITE                   
THROUGH THEN UNTIL THE WIND TURNS WEST AND STARTS BRINGING A BIT OF             
DRIER AIR IN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AGAIN SAT MORNING...VFR/MVFR DECK            
WILL REFORM AGAIN WITH SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO HELP FORM THE                  
CLOUDS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN TODAY INTO SATURDAY OVER ERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR AS A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTH THROUGH ERN             
ONTARIO AND THE SFC RDG FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY REMAINS IN PLACE. SO...NW WINDS WILL BACK NW AND INCREASE TO             
15 TO 25 KT TODAY AND TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER THE               
EAST HALF PUSHING WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL             
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. E              
TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM MON INTO TUE AS LOW PRES OVER THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE ENE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...MICHELS                                                              
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1111 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...RIGHT ABOUT ON SCHEDULE (AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS THE                    
13TH)...THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING...AND NO SURPRISE GIVEN 12Z APX RAOB            
SHOWING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW 0C (THOUGH CLOUD TOP                 
TEMPS AROUND -10C JUST ABOUT THE MINIMUM TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT                  
ICE). OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...                
WITH DEEPLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...AND                  
OVERALL PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW INTACT ACROSS NORTHERN                         
MICHIGAN...BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM                    
SLOWLY PIVOTS SOUTHWARD. NOTABLE CHANNELED VORT ROTATING AROUND                 
THE MAIN GYRE IN CONCERT WITH COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (H85 TEMPS                 
AROUND -3C TO -5C) AND GRADUALLY VEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST HAS PROVIDED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS (WITH A LITTLE                  
SNOW MIXED IN PER ABOVE INFO) FOR THE FAVORED AREAS ACROSS                      
NORTHWEST LOWER...WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN               
SEEING SOME SUN THIS MORNING GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW REGIME. THE                 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS THAT OF LAKE                  
EFFECT CHANCES AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGHS.                                      
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS IT WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH            
ONLY A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE FLOW REGIME TOWARD PURE NORTHWEST BY               
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE 12Z APX RAOB WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE OVERALL LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (900-700MB RH OF LESS THAN               
50%)...APPEARS EARLY MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED INITIALLY DRIER                   
AIRMASS OWING TO OVERNIGHT DOWNSLOPE/CLEARING SKIES. MOISTURE                   
OBVIOUSLY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT PRODUCTION PER CURRENT RADAR               
PICS...WITH LATEST LATEST RUC INDICATIVE OF REALITY WITH 900-700MB              
RH IN EXCESS OF 80%. OVERALL GOING POPS FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS                
THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE ON TARGET...AND PREFER TO KEEP                        
SCATTERED WORDING AS EXPECT AFTERNOON DISRUPTION TO OCCUR WITH                  
INCREASING OVER-LAND MIXING (AND PERHAPS SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE              
BY MID AFTERNOON).                                                              
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DECIDED TO RAISE NUMBERS                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE            
AFTERNOON AND READINGS OFF TO A QUICK START. THAT SAID...STILL                  
EXPECT TO SEE STRATOCU FILL IN FOR ALL AREAS TODAY GIVEN SUFFICIENT             
MOISTURE AND THERMAL TROUGHING FIRMLY IN PLACE. HIGHS UPPER 40S                 
HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD...EXCEPT FOR LIKELY             
SOME MID 50S SOUTHEAST WHERE SUN WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THROUGH               
ABOUT NOON.                                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                         
AVIATION...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH               
THE DAY...MOSTLY IMPACTING TVC AND APN.  WINDS SHIFT TO A WNW                   
DIRECTION TONIGHT WHEN PELLSTON LOOKS TO GET IN ON THE SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY AS WELL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF RAIN                  
SHOWERS WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED.                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI                                      
LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DUAL UPPER             
LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE                   
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  WEAK BACKDOOR SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSING                
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                
UPPER EAST OF I-75 AND TIP OF THE MITT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE                    
NORTHEAST (DOWNSLOPING)...WHILE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE               
DOWN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE.  850MB              
TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED AROUND THE -3C ISOTHERM...WHILE COLD            
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE MID-LEVELS (INCREASING INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS) AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH.  MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP                  
CHANCES WITH LINGERING UPPER LOW TO THE NE OF THE AREA.                         
TODAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY (MAYBE A SLIGHT                 
DRIFT TO THE SW) ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  INVERTED NNW-SSE             
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO BACK OVER THE                 
COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A              
NW DIRECTION ACROSS THE CWA.  ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                   
SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH ONGOING LOW/MID-LEVEL COLD                               
ADVECTION...BACKING WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE                    
(900-700MB RH 45-60 PCT) MEANS ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN              
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  REGARDLESS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU WILL              
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL                
TROUGHING...SO A DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LOOKS REASONABLE.  HIGHS              
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOOKS GOOD.                                           
TONIGHT...VORT LOBE CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER            
LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND ITS WESTERN FLANK AND CLIP THE NE CWA.                   
DEEPER MOISTURE (900-700MB RH INCREASES GREATER THAN 70 PCT) WILL               
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND TIP OF THE MITT WHILE 850MB TEMPS               
REMAIN IN THE MINUS 3-4 RANGE.  SHOULD THEREFORE SEE AN UPTICK IN               
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD            
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD                  
REMAIN MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITHIN WNW FLOW REGIMES AS THE DEEPER              
MOISTURE JUST DOES NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF M68.  WINDS INCREASE AS THE             
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT LOBE.  850MB                 
WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH COASTAL                             
CONVERGENCE...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR NE LOWER.  WILL LET               
DAY CREW CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE NEW DATA...AS ITS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.            
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE            
EAST WHILE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.               
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON SATURDAY...AND               
THEREFORE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS                
REMAIN STEADY IN THE NW DIRECTION.  850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT TO            
NEAR 0C...BUT WITH DELTA T/S REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS...STILL                 
PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NW FAVORED               
FLOW.  BELIEVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NW LOWER WILL DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND DIURNAL DISRUPTION TAKES ITS              
TOLL.  HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL OVERNIGHT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO              
MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER.                                                        
MPC                                                                             
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKED MID LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN (FEATURING            
CONTRA-ROTATING UPPER LOWS) THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS STILL PROJECTED TO PULL OUT INTO THE              
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING              
AND A MODEST WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT IDEA                
WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS LEADING TO FAIRLY                
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FEATURING PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY                 
SKIES TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SO...VERY LITTLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED              
TO THE GOING SUNDAY FORECAST.                                                   
BIGGER FORECAST TROUBLES MATERIALIZE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.               
SPECIFICALLY...THE DEGREE OF PHASING THAT MAY OCCUR OVER THE UPPER              
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW MIGRATING            
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL               
CANADA. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS IDEA             
AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FAVOR OF A WEAKER ECMWF. HOWEVER...12/00Z                
ECMWF DATA GOING THE WAY OF THE GFS WITH STRONGER PHASING INDICATED             
AND SUGGESTS BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY INDUCED PRECIP DEVELOPING AND            
SPREADING INTO THE STATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (AGAIN SIMILAR TO               
THE GFS). OBVIOUSLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. BUT IN LIGHT              
OF THE LATEST ECMWF DO FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD POPS TO AT LEAST THE               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THIS                
SCENARIO HOLDS PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER EXTENDED                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY PLOW               
OVER THE GOING FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY.                            
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
712 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH              
THE DAY...MOSTLY IMPACTING TVC AND APN.  WINDS SHIFT TO A WNW                   
DIRECTION TONIGHT WHEN PELLSTON LOOKS TO GET IN ON THE SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY AS WELL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF RAIN                  
SHOWERS WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED.                             
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI                                          
LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DUAL UPPER             
LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE                   
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  WEAK BACKDOOR SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSING                
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                
UPPER EAST OF I-75 AND TIP OF THE MITT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE                    
NORTHEAST (DOWNSLOPING)...WHILE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE               
DOWN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE.  850MB              
TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED AROUND THE -3C ISOTHERM...WHILE COLD            
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE MID-LEVELS (INCREASING INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS) AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH.  MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP                  
CHANCES WITH LINGERING UPPER LOW TO THE NE OF THE AREA.                         
TODAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY (MAYBE A SLIGHT                 
DRIFT TO THE SW) ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  INVERTED NNW-SSE             
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO BACK OVER THE                 
COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A              
NW DIRECTION ACROSS THE CWA.  ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                   
SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH ONGOING LOW/MID-LEVEL COLD                               
ADVECTION...BACKING WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE                    
(900-700MB RH 45-60 PCT) MEANS ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN              
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  REGARDLESS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU WILL              
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL                
TROUGHING...SO A DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LOOKS REASONABLE.  HIGHS              
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOOKS GOOD.                                           
TONIGHT...VORT LOBE CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER            
LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND ITS WESTERN FLANK AND CLIP THE NE CWA.                   
DEEPER MOISTURE (900-700MB RH INCREASES GREATER THAN 70 PCT) WILL               
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND TIP OF THE MITT WHILE 850MB TEMPS               
REMAIN IN THE MINUS 3-4 RANGE.  SHOULD THEREFORE SEE AN UPTICK IN               
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD            
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD                  
REMAIN MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITHIN WNW FLOW REGIMES AS THE DEEPER              
MOISTURE JUST DOES NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF M68.  WINDS INCREASE AS THE             
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT LOBE.  850MB                 
WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH COASTAL                             
CONVERGENCE...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR NE LOWER.  WILL LET               
DAY CREW CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE NEW DATA...AS ITS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.            
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE            
EAST WHILE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.               
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON SATURDAY...AND               
THEREFORE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS                
REMAIN STEADY IN THE NW DIRECTION.  850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT TO            
NEAR 0C...BUT WITH DELTA T/S REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS...STILL                 
PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NW FAVORED               
FLOW.  BELIEVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NW LOWER WILL DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND DIURNAL DISRUPTION TAKES ITS              
TOLL.  HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL OVERNIGHT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO              
MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER.                                                        
MPC                                                                             
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKED MID LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN (FEATURING            
CONTRA-ROTATING UPPER LOWS) THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS STILL PROJECTED TO PULL OUT INTO THE              
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING              
AND A MODEST WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT IDEA                
WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS LEADING TO FAIRLY                
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FEATURING PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY                 
SKIES TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SO...VERY LITTLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED              
TO THE GOING SUNDAY FORECAST.                                                   
BIGGER FORECAST TROUBLES MATERIALIZE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.               
SPECIFICALLY...THE DEGREE OF PHASING THAT MAY OCCUR OVER THE UPPER              
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW MIGRATING            
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL               
CANADA. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS IDEA             
AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FAVOR OF A WEAKER ECMWF. HOWEVER...12/00Z                
ECMWF DATA GOING THE WAY OF THE GFS WITH STRONGER PHASING INDICATED             
AND SUGGESTS BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY INDUCED PRECIP DEVELOPING AND            
SPREADING INTO THE STATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (AGAIN SIMILAR TO               
THE GFS). OBVIOUSLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. BUT IN LIGHT              
OF THE LATEST ECMWF DO FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD POPS TO AT LEAST THE               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THIS                
SCENARIO HOLDS PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER EXTENDED                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY PLOW               
OVER THE GOING FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY.                            
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
412 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY               
SHOW DUAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ANOTHER            
OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  WEAK BACKDOOR SURFACE TROUGH                   
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER            
EASTERN UPPER EAST OF I-75 AND TIP OF THE MITT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE            
NORTHEAST (DOWNSLOPING)...WHILE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE               
DOWN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE.  850MB              
TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED AROUND THE -3C ISOTHERM...WHILE COLD            
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE MID-LEVELS (INCREASING INVERSION                  
HEIGHTS) AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH.  MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP                  
CHANCES WITH LINGERING UPPER LOW TO THE NE OF THE AREA.                         
TODAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY (MAYBE A SLIGHT                 
DRIFT TO THE SW) ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  INVERTED NNW-SSE             
SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO BACK OVER THE                 
COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF A              
NW DIRECTION ACROSS THE CWA.  ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL                   
SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH ONGOING LOW/MID-LEVEL COLD                               
ADVECTION...BACKING WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE                    
(900-700MB RH 45-60 PCT) MEANS ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN              
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  REGARDLESS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU WILL              
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL                
TROUGHING...SO A DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LOOKS REASONABLE.  HIGHS              
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOOKS GOOD.                                           
TONIGHT...VORT LOBE CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER            
LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND ITS WESTERN FLANK AND CLIP THE NE CWA.                   
DEEPER MOISTURE (900-700MB RH INCREASES GREATER THAN 70 PCT) WILL               
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND TIP OF THE MITT WHILE 850MB TEMPS               
REMAIN IN THE MINUS 3-4 RANGE.  SHOULD THEREFORE SEE AN UPTICK IN               
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD            
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD                  
REMAIN MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITHIN WNW FLOW REGIMES AS THE DEEPER              
MOISTURE JUST DOES NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF M68.  WINDS INCREASE AS THE             
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT LOBE.  850MB                 
WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH COASTAL                             
CONVERGENCE...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR NE LOWER.  WILL LET               
DAY CREW CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE NEW DATA...AS ITS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.            
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE            
EAST WHILE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.               
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON SATURDAY...AND               
THEREFORE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS                
REMAIN STEADY IN THE NW DIRECTION.  850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT TO            
NEAR 0C...BUT WITH DELTA T/S REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS...STILL                 
PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NW FAVORED               
FLOW.  BELIEVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NW LOWER WILL DISSIPATE                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND DIURNAL DISRUPTION TAKES ITS              
TOLL.  HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL OVERNIGHT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO              
MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER.                                                        
MPC                                                                             
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKED MID LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN (FEATURING            
CONTRA-ROTATING UPPER LOWS) THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES                  
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS STILL PROJECTED TO PULL OUT INTO THE              
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...REPLACED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING              
AND A MODEST WARM-UP FOR SUNDAY. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT IDEA                
WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS LEADING TO FAIRLY                
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FEATURING PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY                 
SKIES TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SO...VERY LITTLE CHANGES ANTICIPATED              
TO THE GOING SUNDAY FORECAST.                                                   
BIGGER FORECAST TROUBLES MATERIALIZE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.               
SPECIFICALLY...THE DEGREE OF PHASING THAT MAY OCCUR OVER THE UPPER              
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW MIGRATING            
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL               
CANADA. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS IDEA             
AND LARGELY IGNORED IN FAVOR OF A WEAKER ECMWF. HOWEVER...12/00Z                
ECMWF DATA GOING THE WAY OF THE GFS WITH STRONGER PHASING INDICATED             
AND SUGGESTS BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY INDUCED PRECIP DEVELOPING AND            
SPREADING INTO THE STATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT (AGAIN SIMILAR TO               
THE GFS). OBVIOUSLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. BUT IN LIGHT              
OF THE LATEST ECMWF DO FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD POPS TO AT LEAST THE               
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THIS                
SCENARIO HOLDS PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER EXTENDED                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY PLOW               
OVER THE GOING FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY.                            
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE                 
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AUGMENTED BY DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING INTO             
NORTHERN MI FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF            
RAIN SHOWERS WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED.                        
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
444 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACCOUNTING FOR SCT LIGHT -RW ACTIVITY OVER                      
PORTIONS OF W CENTRAL WI AND NE MN CWA PRIOR TO DAWN. USED                      
GFS40 AS MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS DEPICTION OF 50H LOW                        
JUST WEST OF N CA PER VAPOR LOOP...AND ITS PAINTING OF CURRENT                  
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS NOTED ABOVE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL                    
CLOUD DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BUDGE THIS DAY...UNTIL PASSAGE OF                   
70H TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT TERM REPRIEVE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY            
SKY DECK WILL COMMENCE THIS EVENING...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY                    
MORNING...AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE WAVE BREWING OVER OK PANHANDLE.                 
50H TROF OVER WEST COAST WILL DIG SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NEXT 36                    
TO 48 HOURS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ABOVE WESTERN KS. ADDITIONAL               
DEEPENING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS CUT OFF 50H LOW                     
DEVELOPS TO ITS LEE OVER CENTRAL CO. 850MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE            
...850MB THETA E ADVECTION...AND 305K ISENTROPI ANAL ALL POINT                  
TO CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER FAR SW CWA SAT EVE AND THEN QUICKLY                
DEVELOPING OVER REMAINDER OF SAME BY DAWN ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR                   
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITH TT`S IN THE MID 40S ACRSS               
MUCH OF S HALF OF FA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. SIX TO SEVEN G/KG SPECIFIC             
HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH SEVERAL STRONG 250MB DIVERGENCE                   
COUPLETS COULD BRING ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN SOUTH               
OF SPRINGFIELD TO NEW PRAGUE TO BLOOMER LINE BEFORE INVERTED TROUGH             
AHEAD OF SFC SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS MO FINALLY EXITS OUR NECK              
OF THE WOODS BY SUNDAY EVENING. OF COURSE RESIDUAL LIGHT -RW ACTIVITY           
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF FA RIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ENERGY            
ROTATES AROUND CLOSED 50H LOW SPINNING LIKE A TOP ABOVE LAKE SUPERIOR.          
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FINALLY PUTS ON ITS WALKING SHOES ON WED AS IT             
MARCHES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR NEXT                 
SURFACE CYCLOGENTIC DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT                 
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND WILL BE                  
A MUCH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK MUCH                  
FURTHERN NORTH FROM CENTRAL IA TO S WI DURING COURSE OF THU NIGHT.              
LUCKILY 50H THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOPERATE...FOR ANOTHER ALL LIQUID            
PRECIPITATION EVENT ENDING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                 
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2007/                        
AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN MN ATTM WITH SCATTERED                      
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE. EVEN A FEW TSTMS SHOWING UP FROM KRWF TO KAXN               
WITH RUC BEST LI`S AT OR BELOW ZERO. FEATURE WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT              
6 HOURS WHILE HEADING INTO EASTERN MN. MENTIONED VCSH FOR                       
KSTC...KMSP AND KRNH. MVFR CIGS BASICALLY DOWN TO KAXN AND KSTC                 
ATTM. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES                  
THROUGH. OVERALL...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE CLEAR AREAS              
OF EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS A                
LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET BY MORNING. STILL STUCK WITH LOW                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER US ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME WAA. EXPECT                  
EXTENSIVE VFR LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJZ/KAT                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
835 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS LAST NIGHT WITH THE CENTER           
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS AND RUC SHOWS SOME               
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...              
WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME. WINDS                
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE SURFACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT               
THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE IN THE EAST...WHERE SURFACE                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A BETTER INFLUENCE. FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE            
RUNNING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. SO WILL MAKE SLIGHT HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS   
ON THE GRIDS. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH MIDDLE          
40S EAST TO AROUND 50 WEST. A COOL START TOMORROW SHOULD BE                     
FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARMUP WITH CONDITIONS SETTING UP WELL FOR SOME               
LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TO EXPERIENCE A RARE 40 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE              
IN TEMPERATURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON./17/                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH           
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME FOG MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO GLH DURING THE           
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT SHOULD BURN OFF BEFORE 14Z./17/                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...305 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                               
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE               
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE                 
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST              
ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW OUR SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME A LITTLE               
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL             
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE SURFACE               
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST LATE SUNDAY AND THE SOUTHEAST                
FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS WILL                
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.               
STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID CUT BELOW FOR THE USUAL COOLER                
SPOTS IN THE EAST BOTH NIGHTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS./15/                           
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM DISCUSSION...                                            
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                                                 
UPDATE: AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WE                  
STILL EXPECT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA              
NEXT WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.                     
HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME CHANGES MADE TO THE MID WEEK FORECAST                 
GRIDS. MODELS HINT THAT A DECENT TROUGH-TO-RIDGE PATTERN WILL                   
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS...AND THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE                 
STALLING OUT OF THE FIRST SYSTEM AS FORECASTED PREVIOUSLY. THE FIRST            
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH THE                     
PROSPECT FOR PERTURBED MID LEVEL SW FLOW AND VERY MOIST AIR OVER                
THE GULF POISED TO SURGE NWD...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH DRY WX             
FOR TUES NIGHT/WED AND RAISED POPS THERE FOR THOSE PERIODS. HEAVY               
RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN SHOULD THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFY...BUT WILL                
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS             
STILL EXPECTED TO BE TRANSPORTED MAINLY TO OUR EAST. INSTABILITY IS             
NOT ALL THAT GREAT INITIALLY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS             
STILL IN PLACE...BUT WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR GREATER AMPLIFICATION              
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LATER IN THE WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR                
STRONG CONVECTION. /EC/                                                         
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...                                                
AT LEAST TWO POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEMS APPEAR TO IMPACT THE               
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE FIRST                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH EJECTS             
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ON MONDAY HEADING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
AND WEAKENS AS IT DRAGS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS                  
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH DEEPER                 
TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS DOUBTFUL AS THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO             
PASS BEFORE THE RICHER PWAT AIR OF 2+ INCHES SPREADS NWD. WILL KEEP             
BEST POPS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NEAR 50/50 AS THE EXACT TIMING COULD              
SLIP PLUS/MINUS 12 HOURS. EVEN SO...THE AIR MASS INSTABILITY REMAINS            
ON THE TAME SIDE FOR NOW WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF                          
4.5-5C...MLCAPES BELOW 400J/KG...850MB FLOW OF 25KTS AND K INDEXES              
IN THE L30S.                                                                    
BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STALLING FROM THE               
GULF ACROSS THE SERN STATES AWAITING A MORE POTENT MID LEVEL                    
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON FRIDAY. MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING             
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK BUT AGREEMENTS CENTER ON             
IT BEING QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE EARLY WEEK STORM. ON FRIDAY              
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE                    
AVAILABLE ALONG WITH HIGHER WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL SO WE WILL BE                  
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. FOR INSTANCE...CURRENT              
00Z GFS SHOWING 70-100KT 500MB WINDS DIVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO           
NRN MS BY NEXT SATURDAY MORNING WHILE 850MB WINDS STAY BELOW 30KTS.             
FOR NOW WE ARE DISCOUNTING THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN LESS                 
CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM DURING PAST 3 CYCLES.                         
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY MOST OF NEXT               
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN              
THE U50S AND 60S AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN SENDS DRY PACIFIC AIR              
EWD./40/                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH           
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME FOG MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO GLH DURING THE           
EARLY MORNING HOURS./15/                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       80  47  84  60 /   0   0   0   1                                  
MERIDIAN      80  44  84  51 /   0   0   0   1                                  
VICKSBURG     80  49  84  60 /   0   0   0   2                                  
HATTIESBURG   81  45  84  57 /   0   0   0   4                                  
NATCHEZ       78  52  81  61 /   0   0   0   2                                  
GREENVILLE    81  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   2                                  
GREENWOOD     81  49  85  57 /   0   0   0   2                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/43/15                                                                        
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
646 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                               
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                                             
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-305K SURFACES COMBINED            
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A VERY               
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKER FROM NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST             
AND WEST CENTRAL MO. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS THE 850MB WINDS HAVE                
VEERED AND INCREASED TO 50-55KT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SINCE                   
MIDNIGHT. THIS JET AXIS IS RUNNING OVER THE TOP OF AN EAST-WEST WARM            
FRONT WHICH LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF KS AND MO. A                       
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEPENING UPPER WAVE              
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE RICH                
PACIFIC AIR EASTWARD. ELEMENTS APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE WEST            
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FFG            
VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES/3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH              
THE STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG ON RADAR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM               
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KS IS FILLING IN SO WAVES OF STORMS ARE               
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CWA BEFORE THE            
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. BY LATE MORNING              
AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND                 
BEGIN TO REFORM BACK TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AS              
THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HAVE                   
MENTIONED HEAVY RAINS IN THE ZFP AND WILL HIT IN THE HWO.                       
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT              
NORTH LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE MORNING CONVECTION AND FALLING                   
HEIGHTS OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WARM FRONT FROM SURGING NORTH            
TILL LATER THIS EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO            
THIS AND THE EXTENSIVE MORNING CONVECTION.                                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES               
THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WILL COVER REST              
OF THE CWA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE              
DEEP UPPER TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT            
SYSTEM WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE               
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN DUE TO IT DEEPENING AND               
CLOSING OFF THEY STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. SO FOR SUNDAY BELIEVE             
ONLY FAR WESTERN CWA RUNS THE RISK OF CONVECTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF              
INSTABILITY AXIS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD             
BE WEST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST TIP BUT TIMING             
OF BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AFTER DARK ON SUNDAY SO SEVERE                  
THREAT LOOKS MUTED AT THIS TIME.                                                
LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK IN ORDER FOR SUNDAY EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE             
FAR EASTERN CWA AND OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES ON                
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE ON MONDAY DUE TO             
THE PRECIPITATION AND LOCATION OF THE WARM SECTOR.                              
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FAIRLY SOLID RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MOST             
OF NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED            
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. BACK EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM           
ACTIVITY NOW MOVING ACROSS A SENECA TO TOPEKA TO COLONY KANSAS LINE             
WITH THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BACK EDGE. ROUGH          
TIMING BRINGS THE BACK LINE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS              
THE TAF SITES CLOSE TO 15-16Z. THEREFORE...KEPT MENTION OF TSRA                 
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...TAPERING OFF THE VC MENTION AFTER 15-16Z.             
MAY SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.            
LATEST RUC SHOWS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS            
LIKELY ENDING THE RAIN THREAT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CLOUD                
COVER PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD               
COVER NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS STREAMING EASTWARD THIS MORNING.             
DEROCHE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-305K SURFACES COMBINED            
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A VERY               
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKER FROM NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST             
AND WEST CENTRAL MO. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS THE 850MB WINDS HAVE                
VEERED AND INCREASED TO 50-55KT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SINCE                   
MIDNIGHT. THIS JET AXIS IS RUNNING OVER THE TOP OF AN EAST-WEST WARM            
FRONT WHICH LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF KS AND MO. A                       
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEPENING UPPER WAVE              
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE RICH                
PACIFIC AIR EASTWARD. ELEMENTS APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE WEST            
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FFG            
VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES/3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH              
THE STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG ON RADAR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM               
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KS IS FILLING IN SO WAVES OF STORMS ARE               
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CWA BEFORE THE            
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. BY LATE MORNING              
AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND                 
BEGIN TO REFORM BACK TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AS              
THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HAVE                   
MENTIONED HEAVY RAINS IN THE ZFP AND WILL HIT IN THE HWO.                       
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT              
NORTH LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE MORNING CONVECTION AND FALLING                   
HEIGHTS OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WARM FRONT FROM SURGING NORTH            
TILL LATER THIS EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO            
THIS AND THE EXTENSIVE MORNING CONVECTION.                                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES               
THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WILL COVER REST              
OF THE CWA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE              
DEEP UPPER TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT            
SYSTEM WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE               
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN DUE TO IT DEEPENING AND               
CLOSING OFF THEY STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. SO FOR SUNDAY BELIEVE             
ONLY FAR WESTERN CWA RUNS THE RISK OF CONVECTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF              
INSTABILITY AXIS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD             
BE WEST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST TIP BUT TIMING             
OF BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AFTER DARK ON SUNDAY SO SEVERE                  
THREAT LOOKS MUTED AT THIS TIME.                                                
LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK IN ORDER FOR SUNDAY EVENING OVER ALL BUT THE             
FAR EASTERN CWA AND OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES ON                
MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE ON MONDAY DUE TO             
THE PRECIPITATION AND LOCATION OF THE WARM SECTOR.                              
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GOING MORE WITH THE RUC SOLUTION OF INCREASING               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. 03Z RUC SHOWING BEST            
LIFT ON THE 302K SURFACE BECOMING CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TAF SITES             
TOWARD 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THUS WILL START OFF WITH JUST            
VCSH AND A TEMPO TSRA THEN GO A CATEGORICAL SHRA AND STILL A TEMPO              
FOR HEAVIER TSRA BY 11Z.  WILL PULL OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION            
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE WARM                
FRONT MAY RESIDE BY THAT TIME AFTER MORNING CONVECTION. ALSO TAF                
SITES MAY BE UNDER A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT              
WILL BE MOVING PAST THE AREA IN THE MORNING.                                    
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
...UPDATED AVIATION...                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/943 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                                                    
WILL BE INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT TO            
REFLECT THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OCCURRING. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY            
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.                 
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/401 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                                                    
THE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE               
PAST FEW DAYS IS ABOUT TO GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN                
WHERE RAIN WILL PERIODICALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.                          
THE BIG PICTURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED               
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. CENTRAL PLAINS ARE               
CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WHOSE AXIS IS STILL IN                 
CENTRAL KANSAS. A LITTLE FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH             
THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE FOR TONIGHT            
AND SATURDAYS WEATHER. LOOKING STILL FARTHER TO THE WEST...A LARGER             
TROUGH CAN BE SEEN BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY SPINNING UP INTO A LARGE               
CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED...OR FORECAST...TO               
STALL...BUT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HELP OF THE STRONG                   
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE BROAD CONSENSUS IN THE                 
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES SUNDAY                       
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.             
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE IN WEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL                
CREST THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY...JUST              
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL ALSO BE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF               
THE CUTOFF LOW WAY OUT WEST. STORMS DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE             
305K TO 310K SURFACES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 30KTS LOW LEVEL                   
JET...HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING ALONG ALL DAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE             
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THE FOCUS OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO                 
SHIFT. HAVE SPED UP THE ONSET OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE NORTHWEST                 
CORNER OF MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS. WIDESPREAD               
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER                         
MIDNIGHT...BUT CURRENT DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO             
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AGREES WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WHICH                   
INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.                  
GFS/NAM-WRF/ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS               
NORTHERN MISSOURI IT WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF A WARM FRONT THAT              
WAS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH MISSOURI               
INTO IOWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS SPREAD                 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY              
AS A RESULT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION             
AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY NIGHT AND                   
SUNDAY...THE CHANCE POPS SHIFT NORTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT.  HAVE                
TRIED TO CONFINE THE POPS CLOSE TO THE IOWA BORDER AS ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AND FRONTOGENIC FORCING BOTH LOOK TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH.              
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK                   
OKAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY. SHEAR                    
PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK DECENT (0-6KM GREATER THAN 40KTS AT                 
TIMES)...BUT INSTABILITY IS POOR AT BEST. YOU HAVE TO LOOK ABOVE H8             
IN ORDER TO FIND LAPSE RATE GREATER THAN 6C/KM.                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.                
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SPARK              
STORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS IN                
THIS TIME FRAME AS THE GOING FORECAST STILL FITS WELL WITH THE                  
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL A LITTLE IFFY                  
THOUGH AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.                       
CUTTER                                                                          
EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                             
QUITE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE              
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE CENTRAL            
CONUS LOW INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT              
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TOWARD IOWA. IN                 
RESPONSE TO THE SLOWER UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE SURFACE                   
TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE             
FORECAST MODELS ALSO INDICATE PRECIPITATION LINGERING BEHIND THE                
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY UPPER LOW MAY            
ROTATE IN BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENERGY               
FOR FORCING. AS A RESULT...HAVE STRETCHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES                 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE EXIT            
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES QUITE                 
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE                 
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL LAST BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE                    
ARRIVES. LEANED MAINLY TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HAVE KEPT               
WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT THAT IS NOT WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE.                  
YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT               
WEEK...WITH A PORTION OF IT CROSSING THE ROCKIES TOWARD THURSDAY. A             
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND BRING ANOTHER             
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.            
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THIS SORT OF FEATURE BUT DISAGREE              
ON ITS TIMING. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON              
THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE TIMING MAY NEED TO BE REFINED            
AT A LATER TIME.                                                                
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERALL             
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY            
NOT YET BE COOL ENOUGH AS THEY ARE STILL ABOVE THE NUMERICAL                    
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN/HPC.                                
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GOING MORE WITH THE RUC SOLUTION OF INCREASING               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. 03Z RUC SHOWING BEST            
LIFT ON THE 302K SURFACE BECOMING CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE TAF SITES             
TOWARD 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THUS WILL START OFF WITH JUST            
VCSH AND A TEMPO TSRA THEN GO A CATEGORICAL SHRA AND STILL A TEMPO              
FOR HEAVIER TSRA BY 11Z.  WILL PULL OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION            
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE WARM                
FRONT MAY RESIDE BY THAT TIME AFTER MORNING CONVECTION. ALSO TAF                
SITES MAY BE UNDER A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT              
WILL BE MOVING PAST THE AREA IN THE MORNING.                                    
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
251 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...                                          
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A                 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST ANCHORED BY A                 
LOW OVER UTAH. FORCING HAS BECOME WEAKER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT              
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE DRIVING SOME INCREASE IN                        
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CAUSING FAVORED AREAS FOR                   
SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF BILLINGS ARE SLOW MOVING AND NOT               
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS ARE              
NOT LONG LIVED. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST                
FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE EVENING                
SO HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP TRENDS DOWNWARD WHICH IS A TREND SUPPORTED              
BY THE LATEST RUC WITH THE WRF LOOKING OVER DEVELOPED ON                        
CONVECTION. THOUGHT ABOUT FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT COMBINATION OF                
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD                
LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                    
SURGES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS DRYING FOR THE AIRMASS                
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY SO WARMUP WITH SUNNIER SKIES                
WILL BE CAPPED BY UPSLOPISH FLOW. RIDGING LINGERS FOR MONDAY AS                 
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SLOWS OVER THE MIDWEST AND A STRONG FLOW                   
ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALLOWS ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE                 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING WARMING FOR MODNAY ESPECIALLY                
WITH A SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL                  
INDUCE PRESSURE FALLS OVER IDAHO AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP                 
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS OVER THE AREA FAIRLY WEEK. BORSUM                  
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...                           
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUST OF THE EXTENDED                   
WITH GENERALLY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.                           
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING                       
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. TROUGH                        
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LEFT SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATE                      
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TROUGH.                                                    
BY WEDNESDAY TROUGH MOVES OVER FORECAST AREA BRINGING GREATEST                  
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS BEST                  
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND                     
SOUTHERN MONTANA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH                 
CLOUDS...PRECIP AND LOWERING THICKNESSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                    
RAISED POPS A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. IT SHOULD BE               
NOTED THAT THE GFS IS FLATTER WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW WHILE THE                 
ECMWF BRINGS ACROSS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW                 
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA                 
SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES DURING                 
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY PERIOD.                                     
ON THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS SETTING                
UP A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ECMWF                  
FORECASTING FLATTER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EITHER WAY...PLENTY                 
OF MOISTURE STAY OVER THE AREA WITH MODELS DEPICTING SHORTWAVE                  
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS TO GENERATE AT LEAST                  
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT POPS ALONE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE               
NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END                 
OF THE EXTENDED. STOPPKOTTE                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN WILL STAY MAINLY                   
EAST OF THE KBIL AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.                   
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA THROUGH                     
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY                     
CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. STOPPKOTTE                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 039/061 039/067 039/067 045/062 039/056 035/057 036/059                     
    20/B    00/U    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    11/B                        
LVM 035/060 038/065 038/063 040/056 035/052 036/053 036/055                     
    10/B    00/U    00/B    33/W    43/W    22/W    22/R                        
HDN 039/060 037/069 036/069 043/066 038/060 036/063 035/064                     
    42/W    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W    22/W    11/B                        
MLS 040/060 040/066 039/068 040/065 037/061 036/061 037/063                     
    41/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W    21/B    11/B                        
4BQ 041/057 037/064 036/067 041/062 037/060 036/060 035/066                     
    83/W    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W    22/W    11/B                        
BHK 039/056 037/061 036/062 038/062 037/058 034/056 035/061                     
    52/W    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W    21/B    11/B                        
SHR 041/056 035/066 033/067 039/061 036/059 033/056 034/062                     
    72/W    00/U    00/U    12/W    23/W    22/W    21/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
316 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERALL DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN            
CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AND JUST              
HOW MUCH PCPN WILL OCCUR. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED TWO            
CLOSED LOWS TO OUR EAST. ONE WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT            
LAKES AND THE OTHER WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.            
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS MUCH MORE OF A CONCERN FOR            
OUR AREA. FAIRLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.             
LAST EVENING AT 500 MB FROM THE 00Z PLOT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FALLS               
WERE SUGGESTED FROM THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT ENDING AT 06Z...UP TO 60              
METER FALLS WERE SUGGESTED ALONG THE COAST. MAIN JET CORE (125 KTS)             
WAS STILL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...SO SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE            
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FOR A WHILE. IN THE PLAINS...WARMER AIR AND                
MOISTURE WERE WORKING NORTH AT 850 MB. THE DEWPOINT AT KOAX WAS ONLY            
6 DEGREES C...BUT UPSTREAM IT WAS IN THE LOWER AND MID TEENS ACROSS             
TEXAS.                                                                          
HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...BUT TODAY            
SHOULD BE WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S NORTH...AND              
CLOSE TO 70 SOUTH. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO              
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND INTERACT WITH               
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH. DECIDED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND POPS JUST              
A LITTLE FOR TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE               
00Z GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS. ISENTROPIC LIFT               
IN THE 300 K TO 310 K LAYER SHOULD HELP CLOUDS THICKEN.                         
TONIGHT...BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS              
QPF...HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN                 
TONIGHT. AFTER COORDINATING WITH DMX, EAX AND TOP...DECIDED TO GO               
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO               
SOUTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER              
OF AN INCH...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.              
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY              
NIGHT...THEN KEPT TREND OF TAPERING POPS OFF MONDAY AND MONDAY                  
NIGHT. AT SOME POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE              
AREA. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                 
KEPT A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.                                             
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD TDY WL ALLOW FOR A CONTD INCREASE IN LO TO              
MID LVL MOISTURE. THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR CONDS AT ALL            
3 TAF SITES THRU THE DAY ON FRI. WAA INCREASE THIS EVNG IN RESPONSE             
TO AN INCREASING LO LVL JET ACRS KS/NEB. LIFT SEEMS STG ENOUGH TO               
GENERATE SCT CONVECTION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OVR MAINLY             
THE OMA/LNK TERMINALS. WL INDC CEILINGS DROPPING TOWARD THE END OF              
THE PERIOD...BUT KEEP THINGS VFR. WL ALSO INCLUDE A CHC OF A -SHRA.             
LATER SHIFTS CAN FURTHER ADDRESS POTENTIAL CONVECTION AT THESE TAF              
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MILLER                                                             
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD                                                             
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1029 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE               
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE WILL ALSO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING A SLOW WARM               
UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER             
OH/KY/WV. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE                 
STATE. AS OF 13Z DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC RANGED FROM THE UPPER              
30S TO THE LOWER 40S. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW              
ALOFT ACROSS NC/VA. AN UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST. A             
DEEP TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN US. WEAK TROUGHING WAS                 
OBSERVED OVER GA/FL AND OFF THE WEST FL COAST. A FEW SUBTLE                     
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED AT H25...ONE BETWEEN ILN-RNK AND ANOTHER                  
BETWEEN LZK AND JAN/BMX. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED              
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER KS/MO...ALONG A STRONG SFC/H85 WARM FRONT            
UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AHEAD OF 50-90M H5 HEIGHT FALLS                  
ASSOC/W THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES.                         
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH              
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF            
0.62" THIS MORNING...VERSUS 0.41" YESTERDAY...SO THE COLUMN HAS                 
MOISTENED SOME. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN            
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND THIS IN ADDITION TO A STRONG              
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING AND IN             
FCST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PREVENT EVEN DIURNAL CU FROM                 
FORMING...AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY                 
POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH A CLEAR SKY FORECAST LATER THIS                          
EVENING/TONIGHT IS IF MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS              
ASSOC/W THE MCS THIS MORNING OVER MO/KS ADVECTS INTO NC/VA. H7 AND              
H5 STREAMLINES BASED ON 12Z RAOB DATA AND RUC FCST WIND FIELDS WOULD            
BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE                 
AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH 30-40 KT MAX FLOW IN THAT LAYER...IT WOULD                 
PROBABLY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND THAT`S IF IT DOES NOT              
SUBLIMATE ON THE WAY IN (15-30C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN H7-H5              
AT GSO/RNK). AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.             
NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE BETWEEN 70-72F WITH A 1000-850MB             
THICKNESS AROUND 1368M. THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE            
BETWEEN 1368-1376M... JUST A FEW METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...AND             
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON              
WILL THEREFORE BE NEAR NORMAL AND VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT            
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...AND WILL INDICATE HIGHS BETWEEN                
71-75F. -VINCENT                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.              
LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY             
EVENING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST               
AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA              
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE FROM             
THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT                
TERM.                                                                           
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS WE CAN EXPECT A                
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN              
THE LOW TO MID 40S AND IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT.                
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER               
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
MODELS CONTINUE DRY TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER AS HIGH              
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE              
WEST... MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED                
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.               
WHILE THE RAIN WILL DO LITTLE TO RELIEVE THE DROUGHT...ITS                      
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. WILL ADD LOW CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY SINCE THIS               
IS WHEN THE STRONGER IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE            
WILL PERMIT FEW TO NO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LESS THAN            
EIGHT KNOTS.                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER THIS             
WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR                                           
1137 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AS                        
SATELLITE/ASOS SHOWS OVC LAYER FROM 8K-12K MSL. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SLOW            
DIMINISH...RUC SHOWS GOOD CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...SO KEPT CLOUDS              
TIL 18Z. ALSO WEBCAMS/ASOS SHOWING RADIATION FOG FROM CLE ELUM TO               
ELLENSBURG...IN DENSE PATCHES. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT...PLENTIFUL             
SUNSHINE ABOVE AND ON THE EDGES SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY NOON AS            
IT IS SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD. NO OTHER CHANGES.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE               
NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z.  76                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET                
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY             
LIGHT WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE             
SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL                  
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY              
BE BREEZY WILL BE IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND LOCALLY IN THE                 
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND                 
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING              
IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.  NO RECORDS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT              
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  THE            
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                
MOVES ONSHORE.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO                      
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY.  JOHNSON                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC                  
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT                
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. ARRIVAL OF FIRST SYSTEM ON MONDAY IS 6 TO 12                
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SHADOWING            
DOES SEEM TO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS ONE AS LOW CONDITIONAL                       
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. SYSTEMS WILL CROSS NEARLY EVERY 24 HOURS               
AFTER THAT WITH EARLY INDICATIONS THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL               
OCCUR DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST WIDESPREAD QPF LOOKS TO OCCUR ON              
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT NEAR NORMAL BUT DO EXPECT             
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THE               
END OF THE WEEK. JBONK                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
PDT  65  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0                                           
ALW  67  45  70  45 /   0   0   0   0                                           
PSC  69  40  70  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
YKM  67  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HRI  68  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
ELN  66  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
RDM  65  32  69  36 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LGD  64  37  68  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCD  65  36  70  35 /   0   0   0   0                                           
DLS  70  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OR...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TI:GGG                                                                          
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...                    
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON                                                       
79/99/76                                                                        
</pre> or                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR                                           
842 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AS                        
SATELLITE/ASOS SHOWS OVC LAYER FROM 8K-12K MSL. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SLOW            
DIMINISH...RUC SHOWS GOOD CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...SO KEPT CLOUDS              
TIL 18Z. ALSO WEBCAMS/ASOS SHOWING RADIATION FOG FROM CLE ELUM TO               
ELLENSBURG...IN DENSE PATCHES. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT...PLENTIFUL             
SUNSHINE ABOVE AND ON THE EDGES SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY NOON AS            
IT IS SHALLOW AND NOT WIDESPREAD. NO OTHER CHANGES.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET                
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY             
LIGHT WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE             
SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL                  
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY              
BE BREEZY WILL BE IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND LOCALLY IN THE                 
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND                 
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING              
IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.  NO RECORDS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT              
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  THE            
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                
MOVES ONSHORE.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO                      
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY.  JOHNSON                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC                  
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT                
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. ARRIVAL OF FIRST SYSTEM ON MONDAY IS 6 TO 12                
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SHADOWING            
DOES SEEM TO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS ONE AS LOW CONDITIONAL                       
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. SYSTEMS WILL CROSS NEARLY EVERY 24 HOURS               
AFTER THAT WITH EARLY INDICATIONS THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL               
OCCUR DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST WIDESPREAD QPF LOOKS TO OCCUR ON              
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT NEAR NORMAL BUT DO EXPECT             
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THE               
END OF THE WEEK. JBONK                                                          
AVIATION...MID LEVEL DECK WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE                
MORNING HOURS. WITH DROPPING WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING CLOSE              
TO THE DEWPOINT AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS. WITH DRAINAGE WESTERLY               
WINDS AT KYKM, MAY SEE SOME 3 TO 6 MILE VBSYS BUT DONT THINK WILL               
DROP INTO MVFR OR LOWER. HAVE CONCERNS DUE TO MISSING VISIBILITY                
OBSERVATIONS AT KRDM GIVEN FOG FORMATION THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL              
TRY TO MONITOR VIA WEBCAMS BUT MAY HAVE TO NIL VISIBILITY PORTION OF            
THE TAF SHOULD CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OTHERWISE...ANY                 
REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS              
REMAINING THROUGH 14/12Z. JBONK                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
PDT  65  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0                                           
ALW  67  45  70  45 /   0   0   0   0                                           
PSC  69  40  70  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
YKM  67  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HRI  68  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
ELN  66  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
RDM  65  32  69  36 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LGD  64  37  68  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCD  65  36  70  35 /   0   0   0   0                                           
DLS  70  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OR...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TI:GGG                                                                          
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...                    
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON                                                       
79/99/76                                                                        
</pre> or                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
815 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LARGE...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC                  
WILL PRODUCE COOL WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND SATURDAY.               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND               
MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST BY THE                    
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
DEFORMATION RAIN SHIELD GONE NOW...AS MID LVL LOW CENTER CONTINUES              
TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...CUT OFF UPPER LO OVR SOUTHERN               
QUEBEC WILL KEEP CENTRAL PA IN A CHILLY/UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TDY.               
LAKE/850 TEMP DIFFS ARND 21C SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                
SHWRS DOWNWIND OF LK ERIE. NNW FETCH OVR LAKES WILL FAVOR THE                   
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS WARREN CO.                 
HAVE GONE WITH POPS ABV MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS. WILL                       
COMNTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES IN A STRIPE THROUGH IPT/UNV/AOO.                 
EAST OF MTNS...DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE BRKS IN THE                      
OVERCAST WITH MSUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ                     
VALLEY. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL                    
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PA. CURRENT               
FCST HAS GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATING              
850 WINDS NEAR 40KTS ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY...SO HAVE MENTIONED BREEZY              
AND GUSTS INTO 25-30 MPH RANGE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
BLYR FLOW BACKING TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN              
SHWRS INTO NW PA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SREF DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY                
STRONGLY SUGGEST THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVR WARREN CO.                        
ELSEWHERE...MCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80. ENSEMBLE 850                   
TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO ARND 2C ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING HIGH                
TEMPS FROM L50S NW MTNS TO M60S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
00Z GEFS DATA SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY. FAIR AND MILDER            
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR               
THE REGION.                                                                     
MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY COMING              
ASHORE OVR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET                 
STREAM AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD PA BY                 
MIDWEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERY WX WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM               
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL THURSDAY.                    
LATEST GEFS DATA SUPPORTS A RETURN TO DRY WX BY FRIDAY AS THIS                  
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF PA.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE                       
TODAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU COVERING THE REGION. CLEAR SLOT              
THRU FKL/DUJ/AOO SHOULD FILL BACK IN LATER TODAY WITH BACKING-                  
UPSLOPE FLOW. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF VSBYS IN SHOWERS                   
ARE EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD. ELSEWHERE...STRATOCU CIGS AROUND                 
LOWER END VFR RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL. A GUSTY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO               
THE SERN TERMINALS SHOULD EAT AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS...SO CIGS MAY              
GO SCT BY THE AFTN HOURS. WNWLY SFC WNDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND                
15 KTS AFTER 14Z WITH OCNL GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.                                  
WIDESPREAD CLEARING CONDITIONS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTL                              
SUNDAY/MONDAY...ESP ACROSS THE NW MTS AS THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW                
FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR               
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE PERIOD.                      
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD                                                           
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD                                                  
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD                                                         
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI                                                 
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBERT/GARTNER                                              
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
920 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
INIT BAND OF PCPN BEHAVING AS FORSEEN FOR WRN AND NRN PARTS OF FCST             
AREA. HWVR DVLPMNT IN NWRN IA HAD BEEN RATHER WIMPY. FRTHRMORE                  
MODELS INCLUDG LATEST RUC AND NEW NAM12 KEEP MOST SUPPORT FOR PCPN              
OUT OF THE SERN CRNR THRU MOST OF TNGT. WITH GREATER INSTBLTY SPRDG             
SLWLY NWD TWRDS THIS AREA WILL CUT TO SCT/CHC FROM WDSPRD/LIKELY FOR            
MOST OF TNGT BUT BRING BACK UP TO LIKELY LATE. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN            
CHANGE IN FCST. OF COURSE IF NEW DVLPMNT ON SRN END OF BAND CONTS TO            
BE AS LIGHT AS IT HAS BEEN SO FAR...WE CUD BE LEFT WITH LTL OR                  
NOTHNG UP THIS FAR AT FSD AFTER MIDNGT. QPF ADJUSTD                             
ACCORDNGLY...MAYBE NOT DOWN ENUF IN THE SE BUT IF THERE IS NEW                  
CONVECTN MOVG INTO THAT AREA LATE TNGT IT CUD PACK A DECENT RAINFALL            
PUNCH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PLENTY OF AVN CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR              
CIGS PERSIST AROUND KSUX...AND ANY NORTHWARD PUSH TO THIS VERY LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEETING RESISTANCE FROM DRIER ELY-NELY LOW LEVEL              
FLOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
SHOULD BE ASSISTED BY LEADING BAND OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA NEAR I-90              
AS OF 02Z...AS RAIN AIDS IN SATURATING LOWEST LEVELS FARTHER NORTH.             
IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS EXPECTED INTO KFSD AFTER 05Z. LOWEST               
CIGS/VSBYS WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME MAKING IT TO KHON...ALTHOUGH A              
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...08Z-14Z              
TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL RH FORECAST SHOWS LOW END MVFR-IFR CIG                    
POTENTIAL PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AT KFSD/KSUX...WHILE                
KHON CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH DRIER NELY FLOW AND PERIODS OF HIGHER              
END MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST NW OF THE            
FOUR CORNERS AREA...PROGGED TO MOV EWD INTO ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY.               
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME S/W ENERGY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW                  
CENTER ATTM IN ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS MOVG RAPIDLY NEWD. THIS WAVE               
DOES LOOK TO BE DEPICTED BY THE NAM...BUT WASHED OUT SOME BY THE                
GFS. THAT BEING SAID...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA IS IN NO SHORT SUPPLY            
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE LOW LEVEL MSTR SHOULD                 
BEGIN TO SATURATE INTO AREAS ALONG I 90 VERY EARLY TNGT...SPREADING             
INTO KHON TO KMML BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. SOME OVERALL DRYING IS            
DEPICTED BY THE NAM CLOSE TO KSUX AND STORM LAKE LATE TONIGHT...                
WHICH COULD INHIBIT A BIT OF PCPN DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS...THUS             
DROPPED THE POPS DOWN TO LIKELY WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR REMAINING VERY              
HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT FM KSUX TO STORM LAKE BUT            
SINCE IT IS OF THE LIQUID VARIETY...JUST OPTED TO STAY SHOWERS.                 
CONVERSELY...POPS WL GREATLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS THE NIGHT             
PROGRESSES USING THE LIMITING STREAMLINE FM THE NAM/GFS AT H85-H7 AS            
A GUIDE WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF OUR FA. DID NOT ALTER OUR GOING LOWS             
MUCH AT ALL...RELYING HEAVILY ON THE NAM H925 TEMPS VALID FOR 12Z               
SUNDAY AS A GUIDE. THE GFS H925 TEMPS LOOK TOO COLD.                            
REST OF SHORT TERM CERTAINLY LOOKS WET FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE AREA...           
AND WITH ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS...TMPS WL NOT BE MAKING ANY                    
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES UP OR DOWN AFTER INITIAL SATURATIONAL COOLING.               
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP AS UPR SYSTEM MAKES SLOWING                  
APPROACH TO AREA THRU SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.  WL HAVE TO WATCH AND               
SEE HOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING PCPN AREA IS INVERTED TROUGH AS IT               
TAKES SHAPE POKING NWRD THRU ERN SD WITH APPROACH UP MAIN UPR SYSTEM            
SUNDAY...COLLAPSING SLOWLY SWWRD THRU EARLY TUE AS WASHES OUT. GFS              
IS REALLY FOCUSING WAA ALG/W OF THIS FEATURE...WITH STRONG FRONTAL              
FORCING ALIGNING WITH PV ADVECTION LATE AFTN AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.             
THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN AREAS OF SECONDARY HVY PCPN OUT TOWARD/W OF             
LOWER JAMES VALLEY. TIMING OF PCPN IS DIFFICULT WITH THE LARGE                  
DEGREE OF CONVECTION IN THE MDL SLNS AFFECTING BASE FIELDS.  THUNDER            
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS S OF A MML TO PKS LINE AT               
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY THREAT SOMEWHAT TO S OF                
THIS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS. LIMITING STREAMLINE FOR PCPN REMAINS               
JUST N AND W OF CWA...SO CONVECTIVE CELLS SHUD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP              
AND FEED INTO MAIN DEFORMATION BAND.  DRY SLOT LOOKS TO MOVE N INTO             
AREA SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MAIN UPR LOW LIFTING INTO                        
NEBRASKA...AND THIS CUD SHUD DOWN PCPN TOWARD MORE OF A DZ/SCT SHRA             
EPISODE OVR ERN CWA FOR A TIME LTR SUN NIGHT/MON...WHILE MORE                   
DISCERNABLE PCPN BAND SHIFTS TO THE N AND W...AND CONVECTION WHICH              
DEVELOPS SUN AFTN/EVNG CLOSER TO THE LOW LVL INSTABILITY AXIS IN WRN            
IA/ERN NEBRASKA SHIFTS OFF TOWARD THE E.  LKLY TO FIND A RESURGENCE             
IN PCPN AGAIN MON AFTN/EVENING CLOSER TO CORE OF UPR CIRC MOVING                
TOWARD LOWER MO VLY...WHICH RESULTS IN LINGERING PCPN A BIT LONGER              
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...ESPLY ERN CWA.                                      
DISARRAY CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE DEALING WITH SPLIT FLOW                
PATTERN.  SLNS BETWEEN MDLS/RUNS ARE SO VARIED IT IS HARD TO GET                
A PICTURE ON THE UPCOMING EVOLUTION NOT ONLY WITH GRADUAL DEMISE OF             
SHORT TERM SYSTEM...BUT WITH NEXT TROUGH COMING ONTO W COAST AND                
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK. PROBLEM WITH USING A PURE               
ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS THAT THERE IS A STRONG BIAS TOWARDS LOWER                  
AMPLITUDE...HOWEVER...STILL MAY GET SOME USEFUL INFORMATION FROM                
CLUSTERING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT APPROACHING TROUGH SHUD BE SOMEWHAT            
SLOWER AND MORE SPLITTY CLUSTERING THAN BULLISH PROGRESSION OF 00Z              
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS.  NOT SURE MUCH FAITH CAN BE PLACED IN SLNS WHICH             
TAKE UPR LOW AND REATTACH THE PV TO THE WRN TROUGH RESERVOIR WED AND            
WED NIGHT...NOR ANY RUN THAT AGGRESSIVELY PUSHES WAVE INTO RIDGE                
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SIDED MORE WITH A SPLITTING SCENARIO...WITH MORE               
ENERGY DIGGING TOWARD SRN PLAINS AND MORE TOWARD CANADA PER                     
CANADIAN/UK...BUT NOT SO EXTREME NRN STREAM AS UK. HOWEVER...WL SAY             
THAT SUCH EXTREME DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT UNCHARACTERISTIC OF THIS                 
PATTERN.                                                                        
FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH IDEA THAT CLOUDS WL HANG TOUGH...ESPLY                 
NRN/ERN CWA...INTO WED...WHICH MAY BE ECLIPSED BY NEW MID/HIGH                  
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. KEPT SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES...BUT                  
WITH STRENGTHENING S FLOW...MAY BE ABLE TO FLUSH CLOUDS OUT EARLY               
ENOUGH S/W IN CWA TO ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER WARMING WED. NOT MUCH                
CHANGE MADE TO SYSTEM MOVING IN WED NIGHT...AND LINGERING INTO                  
FRIDAY IN E.  MORE TEMPORAL COVERAGE HERE IS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN              
TIMING RATHER THAN A LONG TERM PRECIP THREAT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WILLIAMS/JH                                                                     
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
814 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR              
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS. WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING                  
SHOWS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CHURNING THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS               
REGION...WITH STRONG /100+ KNOT/ UPPER LVL JET STREAK PUNCHING NEWD             
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RUC INDICATING STRONG H4-H2 UPPER                      
DIVERGENCE OVER MAJORITY OF SOUTH DAKOTA AS REGION LIES IN                      
FAVORABLE POSITION IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. RADAR                  
MOSAIC SHOWS BROAD AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING OVER                    
PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE                 
CWA PICKING UP ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS. A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF                  
RAINFALL CURRENTLY ROTATING NWD OUT OF NEBRASKA...WITH EVEN SOME                
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THIS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF STRONG               
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RUC/NAM/GFS AGREE ON LIFTING STRONG                    
FRONTOGENESIS NWD TOWARDS CENTRAL SD BY 06Z...WITH WEAKENING TREND              
NOTED BY 12Z SUN. RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100% BASICALLY ALONG AND                  
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WATERTOWN TO REDFIELD TO PIERRE TONIGHT AS                 
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH. CONTINUED TREND OF VERY TIGHT POP                 
GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THRU AREA AS MOISTURE FROM SOUTH WILL              
CONTINUE TO BATTLE WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING                                  
100KT JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES                 
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW EXTENDS                 
INTO WESTERN SD HELPING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE                     
WESTERN AND SOUTHER CWA...WHILE TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE KEEPING               
NORTHEAST CWA DRY DESPITE INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. DEVELOPING LOW       
PRESSURE AND TRANSITORY RIDGE ALONG NORTHERN CONUS HELPING TO                   
PRODUCE LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.                                      
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE                             
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOW TO MID 40F DEWPOINTS...AND WITH INTERMITTENT              
SHOWERS...QUESTIONS ARISE ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR FOG. CLOUD COVER                  
WILL BE INHIBITING FACTOR THOUGH SO HAVE NOT PLACED IN GRIDS AT                 
TIME.                                                                           
UPPER TROF DEVELOPS INTO UPPER LOW SUNDAY AM...WITH LOW                         
LEVEL/SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROF FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL                    
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW                
ACROSS THE STATE. SREF PWATS +2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ABR CWA/PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 TO 1                   
INCH...DROPPING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE               
SOUTH OF OUR CWA AS WELL. WITH DRIER AIR ALONG OUR NORTHERN                     
COUNTIES...SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVERAGE CONTINUES              
TO BE A FORECAST ISSUE ALONG THE NORTHER TIER OF SD.                            
MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES AN ISSUE EARLY MONDAY AS SOLUTIONS                    
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN HOW TO HANDLE UPPER LOW. THIS WAS EVIDENT EVEN              
IN LAST NIGHTS ENSEMBLES. CHOSE NOT TO BITE ON ANY ONE SOLUTION                 
AND ALIGNED MORE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE                  
HOPES THAT BETTER CONSISTENCY COMES IN 00Z RUNS.                                
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST TODAY.                     
MODELS STILL NOT SURE HOW TO HANDLE UPPER LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM               
PERIOD. THEY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL               
CUT OFF AND SIT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS                
THE QUESTION. THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCES HAVE TO DO WITH WHAT                    
HAPPENS TO THIS UPPER LOW. WITH A HIGH OVER LOW TYPE                            
PATTERN...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING AS TO WHAT SORT OF INFLUENCE IT                 
WILL HAVE. PER THE GFS...THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD               
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECAUSE OF THE BLOCKING HIGH. THE                
NAM KEEPS THE HIGH FARTHER NORTH...SO IT KEEPS THE CUT-OFF LOW                  
RATHER STRONG AND SLOWLY MEANDERS IT EAST. THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AS              
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH. WITH SO MUCH                                
UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS IN FOR EARLY TUESDAY AS              
ALL MODELS HINT THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE                   
VICINITY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER              
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THAT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH VERY FEW                     
CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE UPPER               
LOW AND THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THIS              
NEXT TROUGH...BUT KEPT IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF                     
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A                
SLIGHT WARM-UP IN THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES                 
CLOSE TO NORMAL.                                                                
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS DISAGREE WITH                 
THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.                 
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE                             
SOUTHEAST...AND THE DEEP TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA                 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES               
EASTWARD...GFS ADVERSITIES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE                
ECMWF FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD HAS A RATHER WEAK TOUGH OVER THE                 
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH SO MUCH DISCREPANCY...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR              
CHANGES TO THE HPC GRIDS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL SD AND                
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL BANDS OF               
RAIN ROTATE NWD INTO REGION. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU               
06Z AS CIGS REMAIN AOA 5K FEET AGL WITH GOOD VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT                 
PRECIP INTENSITY. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS SLOWLY                          
NWD...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL AT KPIR/KATY WITH CIGS              
TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE BTWN 06-09Z. LOW CONFIDENCE               
IN NWD EXTENT OF PRECIP...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF KABR TERMINAL              
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT...COULD ALSO SEE FOG               
DEVELOP ACROSS NERN SD LATER TONIGHT AS T/TD SPREADS CLOSE. WILL                
INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW AT KABR...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FOWLE                                                                  
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY                                                           
LONG TERM...ZELTWANGER                                                          
AVIATION...FOWLE                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1032 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
JUST FRESHENED UP SOME GRIDS AND UPLOADED THEM...AS WELL AS FINE                
TUNED A BIT OF WORDING IN THE ZFP TEXT. SO FAR...MID CLOUDS HAVE                
ERODED QUITE A BIT ALONG AND NE OF A HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO                  
JACKSON MN LINE AS THEY TRY TO STREAM NEWD. NEW NAM RH TIME                     
SECTIONS CLEARLY SHOW THE MID LVL CLOUD DECK STILL EEKING NEWD AS               
THE DAY PROGRESSES...ENCOMPASSING AREAS AROUND MARSHALL MN LAST.                
WHERE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY...NAM SNDGS SHOW A MIX OUT TO H875 ON              
AVERAGE IN SW MN...AND IN AREAS FM HURON...TO BROOKINGS TO SIOUX                
FALLS. SO ATTM...HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THOSE AREAS BUT WL MONITOR.            
WL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS AROUND CHAMBERLAIN TODAY WITH THICK               
CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. NW IA TO YANKTON ALSO LOOK PRETTY GOOD.                    
PCPN WISE...A BAND OF -SHRA/DZ HAS SETUP IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY                 
ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENETIC AXIS...JUST N OF THE SFC INVERTED TROF.              
SOME OF THIS FRONTOGENESIS WANES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BY THEN A             
STRONG H7-H7 -DIV Q BEGINS TO ENCROACH INTO OUR SW QUARTER. SO OUR              
PCPN FCST LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM WITH SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE               
MORNING HRS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREA OF MOST CONCERN TODAY IS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDS NORTHWARD NORTH OF A SFC                    
INVERTED TROF AS EVIDENCED BY THE IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS ACROSS MUCH              
OF NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF IOWA. SHOWERS VICINITY OF KSUX THIS                 
MORNING IS LEADING TO MVFR CIGS GETTING LOCKED INTO THAT                        
AREA...PROBABLY LOWERING TO IFR AND RAIN AS THIS AFTERNOON                      
PROGRESSES AND THRU TONIGHT. RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW              
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP KFSD VFR THRU LATE AFTERNOON AND KHON VFR               
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN INTO KFSD AFTER                      
14/02Z...FINALLY LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AND RAIN AT KHON AROUND                  
14/04Z.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKING VERY BLOCKY WITH STRONG LOW RETROGRADING                
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHILE A STRONG LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST              
U.S. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....INCOMING ENERGY                
REALLY HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT EAST AND NORTH. SO...AS ANTICIPATED                
EARLIER THIS WEEK...MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ITS` ENSEMBLE               
PARTNERS...HAD A SOUTH BIAS AND INSTEAD OF GETTING VIRTUALLY NOTHING            
AS THEY SUGGESTED...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD END UP GETTING ONE TO                 
THREE INCHES OF RAIN ON THE THIRD WET SUNDAY IN A ROW. IN                       
FACT...RAIN LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA                          
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUES RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS FROM ABOUT              
INTERSTATE 29 WEST WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM                 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOCUS SHOULD THEN SHIFT INTO                
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECENT LOW LEVEL                       
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LI`S IN THE 925-800MB LAYER AROUND 0 TO              
-3 AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS             
WITH HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP.                                                     
SO...FOR TODAY...WILL SEE A SLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS            
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POURS ONTO THE PLAINS. WILL INCREASE POPS A                 
LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER REGION...AND TAPER THEM OFF             
QUICKLY AROUND INTERSTATE 90. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TODAY                
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND A LESS FAVORABLE EAST WIND. AS             
ALWAYS...STRATUS A TRICKY CALL...BUT RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON LOW             
STUFF OVER NEBRASKA...AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT NORTH AND REMAIN OVER               
THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING              
ANY HEATING IN THATR AREA. OVERALL...LOW TO MID 60S FOR                         
HIGHS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LOWER IF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK OF                 
CLOUDS SETTLES IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.                                           
TONIGHT...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD                           
NORTH...BRINGING MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS. SHOULD BE A             
PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG I90 TONIGHT              
AS FORCING SETTLES IN AND IS SLOW TO MOVE. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD                 
OCCUR FROM ABOUT 3Z THROUGH 12Z. LEFT GOING LOWS ABOUT THE SAME AS              
925MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWS FROM ABOUT THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER              
50S SOUTH.                                                                      
SUNDAY A LITTLE BIT TRICKY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT AND WITH            
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OVER EASTERN COLORADO...MAY HAVE A BRIEF BREAK            
IN THE ACTION BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND THE            
INVERTED TROF AND FEEDS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.              
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL AS INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT RAIN            
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROF...SO HIGH POPS EVERYWHERE AGAIN.            
WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON                       
PRECIP...SOMETHING CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB OR A FEW DEGREES              
WARMER THAN SEEMS IN LINE. THIS WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO             
MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW IA                   
POSSIBLE IF FRONT CAN SLOW UP ENOUGH.                                           
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE RAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN...WITH THE BEST            
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE            
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS                
LIKELY. HIGH POPS CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJF                                                                             
PREV FCST...08 AND HARMON                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
327 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKING VERY BLOCKY WITH STRONG LOW RETROGRADING                
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHILE A STRONG LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST              
U.S. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....INCOMING ENERGY                
REALLY HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT EAST AND NORTH. SO...AS ANTICIPATED                
EARLIER THIS WEEK...MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ITS` ENSEMBLE               
PARTNERS...HAD A SOUTH BIAS AND INSTEAD OF GETTING VIRTUALLY NOTHING            
AS THEY SUGGESTED...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD END UP GETTING ONE TO                 
THREE INCHES OF RAIN ON THE THIRD WET SUNDAY IN A ROW. IN                       
FACT...RAIN LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA                          
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUES RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS FROM ABOUT              
INTERSTATE 29 WEST WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM                 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOCUS SHOULD THEN SHIFT INTO                
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECENT LOW LEVEL                       
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LI`S IN THE 925-800MB LAYER AROUND 0 TO              
-3 AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS             
WITH HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP.                                                     
SO...FOR TODAY...WILL SEE A SLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS            
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POURS ONTO THE PLAINS. WILL INCREASE POPS A                 
LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER REGION...AND TAPER THEM OFF             
QUICKLY AROUND INTERSTATE 90. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TODAY                
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND A LESS FAVORABLE EAST WIND. AS             
ALWAYS...STRATUS A TRICKY CALL...BUT RUC HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON LOW             
STUFF OVER NEBRASKA...AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT NORTH AND REMAIN OVER               
THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING              
ANY HEATING IN THATR AREA. OVERALL...LOW TO MID 60S FOR                         
HIGHS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LOWER IF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK OF                 
CLOUDS SETTLES IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.                                           
TONIGHT...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD                           
NORTH...BRINGING MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS. SHOULD BE A             
PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG I90 TONIGHT              
AS FORCING SETTLES IN AND IS SLOW TO MOVE. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD                 
OCCUR FROM ABOUT 3Z THROUGH 12Z. LEFT GOING LOWS ABOUT THE SAME AS              
925MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWS FROM ABOUT THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER              
50S SOUTH.                                                                      
SUNDAY A LITTLE BIT TRICKY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT AND WITH            
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OVER EASTERN COLORADO...MAY HAVE A BRIEF BREAK            
IN THE ACTION BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND THE            
INVERTED TROF AND FEEDS NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.              
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL AS INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT RAIN            
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROF...SO HIGH POPS EVERYWHERE AGAIN.            
WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON                       
PRECIP...SOMETHING CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925MB OR A FEW DEGREES              
WARMER THAN SEEMS IN LINE. THIS WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO             
MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW IA                   
POSSIBLE IF FRONT CAN SLOW UP ENOUGH.                                           
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE RAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN...WITH THE BEST            
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE            
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS                
LIKELY. HIGH POPS CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREA OF MOST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF            
THE CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AS EVIDENCED BY               
THE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF IOWA.                 
SHOWERS VICINITY OF KSUX EARLY MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS                 
GETTING LOCKED IN AT KSUX BY 10Z...LOWERING TO IFR CIGS AND RAIN                
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL DRY            
AIR WILL KEEP KFSD VFR THRU LATE AFTERNOON AND KHON VFR INTO THE                
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN INTO KFSD AFTER 14/02Z...FINALLY              
LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AND RAIN AT KHON AROUND 14/04Z.                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/HARMON                                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
257 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP TO THE EAST                
RCHG WRN NC 12Z MON. LTST RUC SHOWS VORT AREA ASSOCD W/ DEBRIS                  
CLDS FROM TSTORM COMPLEX OVR MO DRFTG SEWD TO NRN TN...THUS                     
BRINGING SOME CLDS OVR NRN TIER OF TN COUNTIES BY MIDN.                         
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10                
DEGS ABV NRML...NAMELY MID 70S TO LWR 80S.                                      
MSTR COMES ARND THE BACK OF THE HI AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN                 
THE CNTRL PLNS MON...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLDS.                              
WL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHC OF RAIN (50%) FOR TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT                 
APCHS OUR RGN. THE FNT REACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY MRNG BUT             
WASHES OUT...LEAVING RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON WED.               
SOME DRYING OUT ON THU...WITH TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE                 
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WRN TN BY 12Z SAT...AND A 20-30% CHC              
OF SHWRS FOR THE RGN FRI NITE.                                                  
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE      52  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0                                 
CLARKSVILLE    49  81  55  85 /   0   0   0  10                                 
CROSSVILLE     46  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0                                 
COLUMBIA       50  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0                                 
LAWRENCEBURG   48  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0                                 
WAVERLY        49  81  56  85 /   0   0   0  10                                 
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ORCHANIAN                                                                       
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1105 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF           
A COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHED FROM WEST OF KGUY TO NEAR ROMERO                   
LINE...AND ALSO ALONG AND EAST OF A DRY LINE LOCATED FROM NEAR A                
KGUY TO KHRX LINE. WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION IN BOTH THE KAMA AND KGUY            
TAF FORECASTS THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL             
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH           
AND SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY...BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF             
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.                                       
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST            
CWA. STORMS FORMING IN SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES SEEM TO MATCH UP               
WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS...WHICH THEN SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE           
CENTRAL TO EAST CWA THROUGH 06Z OR 07Z. RECENT STORMS THAT MOVED INTO           
SOUTHERN KANSAS PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE                 
STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO           
AMARILLO. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO NORTH AT AROUND 30            
MPH. SO MAY ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.                             
JJB                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO               
OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS               
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND             
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE                    
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND              
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL THEN SLOW DOWN OR STALL SUNDAY BEFORE           
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SURFACE TROUGH/PSEUDO DRYLINE IS EDGING INTO THE WESTERN                        
PANHANDLES NOW. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE                
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS               
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT                   
BASIN. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS                   
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS REGION. A JET                   
STREAK HAS ROUNDED THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IS NOW                     
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN                     
COLORADO. WE FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE                     
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH UNDER             
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP THE WIND SHEAR AND                 
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD              
OF THE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST                
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. COOLER               
AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE                
UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.                  
WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WE STILL FEEL THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL BE               
LEFT ON THE DRIER AND WINDIER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS                
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL STAY TO OUR                  
NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP OUR POPS DOWN            
IN THE LOWER CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.                                  
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS            
FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE TRACK AND EXPECTED STRENGTH            
OF THIS CURRENT UPPER TROUGH.                                                   
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE                       
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY               
MAKE IT BACK TO POSE A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA.                                    
TYPICAL OCTOBER WINDY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND MID                 
WEEK NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT THURSDAY                  
NIGHT...BUT THIS ONE APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO WILL                 
LET THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT RUN ITS COURSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH                
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IF THE FRONT IS                    
DELAYED SOME SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE                  
STRONGER AHEAD OF IT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. ALSO                  
WINDS COULD SHIFT QUITE ABRUPTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE                      
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...SO THIS COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR ANY               
ONGOING FIRES.                                                                  
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST            
CWA. STORMS FORMING IN SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES SEEM TO MATCH UP               
WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS...WHICH THEN SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE           
CENTRAL TO EAST CWA THROUGH 06Z OR 07Z. RECENT STORMS THAT MOVED INTO           
SOUTHERN KANSAS PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE                 
STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO           
AMARILLO. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO NORTH AT AROUND 30            
MPH. SO MAY ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.                             
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO               
OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS               
TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND             
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE                    
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND              
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL THEN SLOW DOWN OR STALL SUNDAY BEFORE           
FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SURFACE TROUGH/PSEUDO DRYLINE IS EDGING INTO THE WESTERN                        
PANHANDLES NOW. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE                
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS               
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT                   
BASIN. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS                   
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS REGION. A JET                   
STREAK HAS ROUNDED THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IS NOW                     
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN                     
COLORADO. WE FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE                     
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH UNDER             
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP THE WIND SHEAR AND                 
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD              
OF THE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST                
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. COOLER               
AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THE                
UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.                  
WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WE STILL FEEL THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL BE               
LEFT ON THE DRIER AND WINDIER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS                
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY              
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL STAY TO OUR                  
NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP OUR POPS DOWN            
IN THE LOWER CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.                                  
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS            
FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE TRACK AND EXPECTED STRENGTH            
OF THIS CURRENT UPPER TROUGH.                                                   
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE                       
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY               
MAKE IT BACK TO POSE A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA.                                    
TYPICAL OCTOBER WINDY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND MID                 
WEEK NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT THURSDAY                  
NIGHT...BUT THIS ONE APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME.                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO WILL                 
LET THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT RUN ITS COURSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH                
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IF THE FRONT IS                    
DELAYED SOME SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE                  
STRONGER AHEAD OF IT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. ALSO                  
WINDS COULD SHIFT QUITE ABRUPTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE                      
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...SO THIS COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR ANY               
ONGOING FIRES.                                                                  
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS WILL BE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS              
AVERAGING 15KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 25KT.               
KEPT IN LLWS FOR KMAF BASED ON VAD AND PROFILE DATA...BUT MAY HAVE              
TO ADD IT TO OTHER SITES LATER. EXPECT WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE                   
S/SSE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNM WHERE A WESTERLY PUSH WILL                  
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. VFR              
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL JET               
STREAK OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL             
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE AS                
THERE IS NOT MUCH...IF ANY...EVIDENCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL EMBEDDED                
WAVES WITH IT.  AT THE SURFACE...WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF            
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS MODERATE PRESSURE                
GRADIENT HAS ORIENTED ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN              
TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER JET AND LEE TROUGHING.  FOR              
THIS REASON...SOME LOCATIONS WILL NOT RADIATE AS WELL WITH THE                  
ENHANCED MIXING AND LOW TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                        
THE RUC/WRF DEWPOINTS WERE...AND ARE...TOO HIGH PROBABLY DUE TO                 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS RESULTED             
IN OVERFORECASTED INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER DRYLINE GRADIENT THAN               
WHAT WAS ACTUALLY OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY.  AS A                   
RESULT...CONVECTION WAS UNABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH                   
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  A SHOWER OVER              
THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS UPPER JET                
STREAK APPROACHES TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.              
WILL PULL THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP             
WILL HANDLE IT WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.  TWEAKED WIND...DEWPOINT...           
AND SKY GRIDS ACCORDING TO TRENDS.  UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.                 
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1131 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS REGARDING 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS THRU 24                
HRS...THOUGH SOME CI ANVIL BLOWOFF MAY OCCUR LATE ARND D/FW SITES               
FROM SCT STORMS WELL TO THE NW. NAM STILL TRYING TO MVFR CIGS ARND              
12Z SAT A.M AT KACT...BUT IT`S THE OUTLIER. LEANING TWD GFS/RUC                 
SOLNS OF STRATUS STAYING W/SW OF THE AIRPORT.                                   
OTRW...SELY FLOW 5-9 KTS OVRNGT...THEN W/MIXING AFTER 15Z...SLY                 
WNDS 13-16KT WITH GSTS 20-25 KTS...BEFORE GOING BACK SELY ARND 10               
KTS BY 00Z SUN/AFTR.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
00Z FWD AND AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THAT DRY AIR                
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT                
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS ON THE CWA AS CAN              
BE SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN CLOSED                 
OVERNIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE DRASTIC CHANGES IN MOISTURE                 
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO                
IN MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND COMPARISON WITH                   
ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS FROM LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE                
WARMER...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. DID DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE                    
SOUTHEAST BY AS MUCH AS 4 DEGREES AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE                   
ALREADY RUNNING IN THE MID 60S AND PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LOWER 60S              
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                                             
OTHERWISE...ONLY CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE COSMETIC TO ACCOUNT FOR                  
RECENT TRENDS.                                                                  
82/JLD                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
WILL HOLD TO CURRENT THEME OF OVERALL VFR CONDS THRU 00Z SUN (SAT               
EVE). HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH KACT VCNTY FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR               
CIGS BETWEEN 10-14Z PER LATEST BL MSTR PROGS...AS 30-40 KT LLJ                  
DVLPS OFF JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE NNW AFTER 06Z SAT. OTRW...AGREE                 
WITH CWSU DISC OF SE WNDS 7-11 KTS...BECMB SLY AND INCRSG 10-20                 
KTS AFTR 12Z SAT...THEN 15-25 KTS/GSTY BY 17Z SAT/AFTR.                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING               
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST EAST OF THE AREA.            
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST         
WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IS A LITTLE HIGHER. ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY               
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.                                                
91/DUNN                                                                         
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING             
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND CAUSE A SURFACE LOW                
TO DEEPEN IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND              
WINDS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL                  
USHER IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND LOW                          
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN                
RECENT NIGHTS.                                                                  
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY A DRY LINE WILL                 
ORGANIZE TO THE WEST. MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO FAST/FAR EAST WITH DRY             
LINE MOVEMENT...AND BELIEVE THAT THE BRUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE                
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BY THE NIGHT TIME HOURS            
SUNDAY...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE NW            
AND NRN ZONES. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE BY               
MONDAY MORNING BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT                     
OUT...THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM AND STALL                  
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE             
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST AND            
UNSTABLE WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL ALSO BE              
PRESENT MONDAY AS A FINAL PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS.           
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DESPITE THE LINGERING FRONT...UPPER               
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHICH SHOULD RESULT              
IN SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERALL...THE MEX MOS            
APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AND DEVIATIONS               
WERE MINOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR                      
LOWS...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS DUE TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.               
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED BUT SEEM              
TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A FARTHER NORTHWARD SOLUTION OF THE UPPER                 
TROUGH. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP FORECAST WARM/DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.             
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  64  88  67  84 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
WACO, TX              86  63  87  66  85 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
PARIS, TX             81  53  83  59  82 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
DENTON, TX            85  59  88  67  83 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  85  64  84 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
DALLAS, TX            82  63  86  67  84 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
TERRELL, TX           82  59  85  64  84 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         84  61  85  63  84 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            86  61  87  67  85 /  10   0   0   0  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
82/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
933 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL JET               
STREAK OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL             
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE AS                
THERE IS NOT MUCH...IF ANY...EVIDENCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL EMBEDDED                
WAVES WITH IT.  AT THE SURFACE...WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF            
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS MODERATE PRESSURE                
GRADIENT HAS ORIENTED ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN              
TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER JET AND LEE TROUGHING.  FOR              
THIS REASON...SOME LOCATIONS WILL NOT RADIATE AS WELL WITH THE                  
ENHANCED MIXING AND LOW TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                        
THE RUC/WRF DEWPOINTS WERE...AND ARE...TOO HIGH PROBABLY DUE TO                 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS RESULTED             
IN OVERFORECASTED INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER DRYLINE GRADIENT THAN               
WHAT WAS ACTUALLY OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY.  AS A                   
RESULT...CONVECTION WAS UNABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH                   
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  A SHOWER OVER              
THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS UPPER JET                
STREAK APPROACHES TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.              
WILL PULL THE POPS FROM THE FORECAST...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP             
WILL HANDLE IT WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.  TWEAKED WIND...DEWPOINT...           
AND SKY GRIDS ACCORDING TO TRENDS.  UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.                 
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
67/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1143 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL FCST OF STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S WITH                
ACCASS NOTED ACRS PB MAINLY W OF KMAF. MEANWHILE WATER IMAGERY                  
INDICATES A MINOR SHRTWV TROF/SPEED MAX IN WRN NM AHEAD OF UPPER                
LOW IN CALIF. LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS ALSO ORIENTED N-S ACRS THE                
PB INTO THE PANHANDLE. BASED MODIFIED 12Z MAF SOUNDING FOR                      
CURRENT CONDITIONS (24C/17C) THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SB CINH THAT                  
WILL HAVE TO BE ERODED FOR TSTM FORMATION. BY 21Z THE RUC SUPPORTS              
BREAKABLE CAP ACRS PB AND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S               
TODAY A MODIFIED 12Z KMAF SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTS BREAKABLE CAP.                 
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35KT BY 21Z AND 7H-5H NEAR               
7 C/KM ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV               
TROF WILL PROBABLY TOO FAR NW-N TO ENHANCE LIFT FROM SFC HEATING.               
FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNM...PEQ...MAF...GGS.            
WILL OPT TO USE SOME OF THE 12Z METMOS FOR WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE             
STRONGER THAN CURRENT FCST. WILL SEND UPDATE WITHIN AN HOUR.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW END RISK OF TSTMS IN TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED                      
THRU AT LEAST 00Z. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP EARLY                   
EVENING AND WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12KTS THRU THE NIGHT...EXCEPT               
CNM/INK. EXPECT THAT WITH WINDS REMAINING UP PATCHY MVFR FOG OF                 
LAST FEW MORNINGS WILL NOT OCCUR SAT MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE                
AFTER 06Z INVOF HOB NWD.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
434 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOR              
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS                  
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODS OF                       
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                                    
TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO                                     
CROSS THE INLAND NW OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND BEHIND              
IT. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS                 
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROF...WHICH WAS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO               
NW WASHINGTON. DESPITE THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME                
RATHER LIMITED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS FIZZLED WITH A TRANSITION TO INCREASINGLY                 
WESTERLY FLOW VERSUS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING. MAIN              
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MIN TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR                
FOG. GIVEN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS                  
ASSOCIATED DRYING...WE EXPECT THE CLEAREST SKIES TO AFFECT THE                  
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS CLOUDS COULD CONCEIVABLY HANG OVER THE                  
IDAHO PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IT. FOR THIS               
REASON WE GENERALLY WENT ABOVE MOS TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD               
OF THE CWA AND WENT WITH MOS VALUES ELSEWHERE. FOG COULD BE A                   
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE CASCADES...WENATCHEE AREA...OKANOGAN              
VALLEY DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL. DEWPOINT FORECASTS OFF THE GFS AND               
NAM ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE...WHILE THE RUC IS DOING MUCH BETTER.                
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WE WILL BE FAR FROM SATURATION LATE              
TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS...WE HAVE TO WONDER WHAT WILL REALLY                     
TRANSPIRE. UNFORTUNATELY THE RUC GUIDANCE DOES NOT YET EXTEND TO                
THE LATE NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST YET. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP                
FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO FOR HIGHER HUMIDITIES THAN                
IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS. FX                                              
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS                 
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE                  
INLAND NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING                
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW                  
WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BTWN 150-170W. THIS FRONT                  
WILL AID IN PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST OF OUR AREA...BUT AS THE FRONT               
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE IS WILL STRETCH...WEAKEN...AND SLOW DOWN.                  
TIMING OF FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON                        
MONDAY...GIVING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH TEMPS MONDAY.                   
RIGHT NOW...TIMING LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE CASCADES MONDAY                         
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME COOLING COMPARED TO SUNDAY                
OVER CENTRAL WA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CASCADES...WHILE           
EASTERN WA/ID SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING. JW                                       
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL LACKING CONSENSUS WITH               
THE TIMING OF A STRING OF PACIFIC WAVES POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION             
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE FASTER             
THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. HPC FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE             
MEAN TIMING. THE SLOWER TIMING WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE                  
CASCADES ON MONDAY THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                    
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH              
THE HELP OF A 160KT PACIFIC JET. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE NEXT               
SYSTEM IS ALSO UNDER QUESTION. THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE DIFFERS                   
SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS TRACKS A STRONG SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE                     
WASHINGTON COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN BC ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB WINDS              
NEAR 50KT OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN HAS                 
ADJUSTED THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BOTH THE             
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES KEEP THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WITH THE                
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. AT THIS                
POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING ON THURSDAY                 
AND CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.               
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED                
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS KEEPING                    
DAYTIME READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. /KELCH                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA THROUGH 18Z                             
SATURDAY...WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 03Z               
TONIGHT. HOWEVER DESPITE BKN-OVC SKIES CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT                  
ALL TAF SITES. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF                
THE FORECAST AREA FROM RAIN THIS MORNING LEADS TO SOME CONCERN                  
FOR PATCHY FOG AFT 10Z TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES. EXPECT                
FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEYS OF OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND THE                      
NORTHERN CASCADES...POSSIBLY AFFECTING VALLEYS AS FAR SOUTH AS                  
KEAT BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A NW WIND TO KEEP FOG FROM                   
DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITE. EK                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        41  63  40  65  43  66 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  41  63  40  66  43  69 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
PULLMAN        42  64  37  67  41  69 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
LEWISTON       45  67  44  69  46  70 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
COLVILLE       38  67  37  68  39  67 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
SANDPOINT      38  63  36  64  37  67 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
KELLOGG        37  61  38  63  40  65 /  10   0   0   0   0   0                 
MOSES LAKE     43  67  38  69  41  66 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
WENATCHEE      43  67  43  66  47  63 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
OMAK           40  68  36  66  41  63 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
351 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS WITH APPCH                
VORT...THEN FROST POTENTIAL TNGT AND THEN ON WAA PCPN TRENDS SAT                
NGT/SUNDAY.                                                                     
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANIMATION SHOWS 20 UNIT SHORTWAVE APPCH FROM WRN                
MN. MODELS HAVE THIS COMING ACRS THE CWA THIS MRNG. GFS AND NAM                 
NOT DOING MUCH WITH THIS FEATURE. APPEARS BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN               
TRENDING INTO NRN WI...THOUGH STILL ISOLD RETURNS SOUTH OF MPX.                 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILTY CONSIDERATIONS ARE NOT FAVORING MUCH OF                 
THIS MAKING IT ACRS OUR CWA THIS MRNG. PCPN WITH THIS VORT IS                   
PROGRESSING AND WILL PUT ISOLD SHRA INTO NW CWA FIOR THIS MRNG.                 
CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH SYS CLOUDS AND LINGERING LOW                   
CLOUDS STILL BOTHERSOME.                                                        
NEXT CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SFC RDG AXIS PROGGD TO BE              
LAID OUT ACRS THE CWA. OVERALL PLACEMENT OF GOING FROST IN GRIDS                
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT DEVIATE. AM NOT CONVINCED ENUF TO GO WITH               
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT GIVEN ONGOING CLOUD TRENDS AND THE FACT                 
THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LLVL RH HANGING ARND STILL                  
TNGT. JUST NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.              
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN FROST POTENTIAL IN HWO.                                 
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET DAY WITH INFLUENCE OF SFC AND H8                   
RIDGE AXIS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WAA SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. BASED ON              
CONSENSUS OF PROGS WILL START TO BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO CWA SAT NGT              
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH GOING WX GRIDS. THE               
NAM IS SHOWING MORE RESPECT FOR THE DRY INFLUENCE OF HIGH WHILE                 
THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF QPF. THE LOCAL                  
WRF20 AND CANADIAN IS A NICE COMPROMISE BLEND. THE NAM APPEARS TO               
BE THE OUTLIER GETTING INTO MON SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSER WITH THE                  
GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF WITH A WETTER SOLUTION. WILL RAISE POPS TO               
LIKELY SUN INTO MON. IF 00Z HI RES ECMWF IS RIGHT...PCPN COULD                  
LINGER LONGER ON TUESDAY. TOOK SLGT CHC UP TO CHC FOR NOW.                      
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION....AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS IN LOW LEVELS WILL     
POSTPONE STRATUS EROSION FOR A TIME BUT IN GENERAL VFR CIGS EXPCD               
WITH INCRG NWLY WNDS AT LWR LEVELS ENCOURAGING MORE WDSPRD CLEARING             
FOR TNGT. WL NEED TO KEEP ONE EYE ON LAKESHORE AREAS FOR POTENTIAL              
OF LOW ST DVLPING OVR COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS AND BRUSHING INLAND               
AREAS /KMKE/ FOR A TIME THIS MRNG.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
347 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                              
MUCH OF THE TIME THIS MORNING SPENT ON WET WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM               
SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND SOME TIME ALSO SPENT ON WEAK WAVE               
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST.                            
CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED OVER FORECAST AREA                
IN WAKE OF DOUBLE-BARRELED DEEP VORTEX FROM SRN HUDSONS BAY INTO                
NEW ENGLAND. PESKY MID LEVEL WAVE...WHICH IS THE SRN COMPONENT OF               
A MUCH STRONGER WAVE EJECTING INTO CNTL CANADA...HAS BROKE AWAY                 
FROM ITS PARENT WAVE AND CRESTED THE MEAN CNTL CONUS RIDGE AND                  
DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW              
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON VORTEX. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PLENTY                
OF WEAK ECHOES ACROSS MN/WI THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW                       
LIGHTNING STROKES. SEVERAL SITES IN MPX FORECAST AREA RECEIVING                 
TRACE AMOUNTS...BUT VERY FEW MEASURING. GOES FOG PRODUCTS SHOWS                 
WIDESPREAD 4-8KFT CEILINGS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH BAND OF                        
COOLER/ENHANCED TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST RETURNS ON                   
RADAR ON MN/WI BORDER AT 08Z.                                                   
FIRST CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST IS THE PESKY WAVE THIS                           
MORNING. 12.06 RUC AND 12.00 WRF MODELS SHOWING BEST PV ADVECTION               
ON 1.5 PV SURFACE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT NOW IN LEFT EXIT                    
REGION OF 80KT JETLET ON SAID SURFACE. WAVE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO                
DISTURB THE SFC-2KM LAYER MUCH...HOWEVER WEAK/TRANSIENT MID LEVEL               
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT TERM/HIGHER RESOLUTION               
DATA SETS LIKELY OWING TO RESPONSE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT SHIFTS               
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP VERY WELL WITH AREA OF                 
SPRINKLES/SHRA RIGHT NOW. WHILE MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL EXIT BY                
SUNRISE...STILL SEE ENOUGH RESIDUAL 700-600MB LEVEL                             
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND WEAK DYNAMICS FOR SPRINKLE/SHRA                     
INCLUSION MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE MORNING. PLENTY OF                   
CLOUDS IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...WITH WEAK FLOW. DEVELOPING WARM                      
ADVECTION TO OUR WEST...LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS               
WAVE...AND OVERALL WEAK FLOW SIGNALS MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT HANGING               
ON THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT BASED ON THIS.                          
QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE                   
EAST. MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY...AFTER CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAK                
UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUITE SEASONABLE.                            
NEXT STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF CALI COAST MOVES INTO THE GREAT                
BASIN AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. BECOMING QUITE CLEAR                 
NOW THAT FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY BOTH WARM ADVECTION                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN                        
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION/UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO                 
MONDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND. ADDED SOME DETAIL TO SATURDAY NIGHT                  
WHICH BRINGS RAIN SHIELD INTO SRN FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY-MID                
EVENING HOURS...THEN SPREADS NORTH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT ON NOSE OF                  
40KT LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE                 
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS WITH TIME AND AS WOULD EXPECT                
FRONTOGENETICAL FIELDS SHOW THIS. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST                  
RIGHT NOW...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IF ADVECTION SIGNAL                
STRENGTHENS ANY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO                            
INSTABILITY /LAPSE RATES VERY UNIMPRESSIVE/...BUT PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED         
INSTABILITY NOT TOO FAR OFF. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SLOW AS              
IT MOVES INTO NRN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW              
MOVES OUT INTO CNTL PLAINS AND ENERGY FROM NRN STREAM BEGINS TO                 
DIG DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. SHOULD ALL GO INTO MAKING RATHER                   
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL AFFECT                  
MOST OF AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN STRONG...CONSISTENT SIGNAL                
IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES...INCREASED RAIN PROBABILITIES SATURDAY NIGHT               
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOAKING 1+ INCH RAINS...EVEN                    
APPROACHING 2 INCHES SOME SPOTS GIVEN LONG DURATION/FAVORABLE                   
DYNAMICS/THERMODYNAMICS AT PLAY HERE.                                           
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND              
TO BE VERY ACTIVE/WET...BOTH IN TERMS OF DEPARTURE OF WEEKEND                   
SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE...AND MORE STRONG ENERGY/WRN CONUS TROUGHS               
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING                  
FROM PERSISTENT CORE OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN GULF OF                           
ALASKA...SHOULD ALLOW ENERGY FROM THE NRN STREAM TO SLIDE DOWN THE              
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH THE STRONG CNTL ROCKIES                 
TROUGH BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REDEVELOPS AND CLOSES OFF               
AGAIN AND LINGERS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.                     
DETAILS UNCERTAIN RESOLVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH DETERMINES                   
WHEN/WHERE THE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE...BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH              
PER LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS/GEM RUNS...AND                      
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY                  
NIGHT...AND THIS VERY WELL MAY NEED TO BE LINGERED INTO TUES WITH               
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. NO REST FOR THE WEARY COMING OUT OF THIS               
SYSTEM AS GFS/ECWMF/ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL INDICATE ACTIVE SRN STREAM               
OUT OF MEAN WRN CONUS TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE LADEN                 
SYSTEMS WITH ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MEAN                              
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH SLOW MOVING /CLOSED/ UPPER              
LOWS WITH STRONG COMPONENTS OF BOTH WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIPITATION                
AND MATURE DEFORMATION ZONES. DETAILS STILL NOT CLEAR...BUT AT                  
SOME POINT IN NEXT FEW DAYS MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN NOTION OF                     
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN MN/IA EARLY THIS MORNING                          
RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES/-SHRA ACROSS EASTERN MN. THIS                   
FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 12Z...TAKING ANY                
THREAT OF -SHRA WITH IT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HGT X-SECTIONS                
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED IN AND BELOW THE                
INVERSION IN THE 850- 700MB LAYER BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE. THIS                   
DEPICTED WELL BY SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING               
AS BROAD AREA OF VFR CLOUDS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.                
THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES                             
TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS IN 6K-8K FT RANGE TODAY GIVING                
WAY TO BKN LCL SCT CLOUDS IN THE 4K-6K FT RANGE TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
348 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ROCKIES LG WV TROUGH NOW HAVING LARGE INFLUENCE ON MIDWEST WX.                  
110KT SPEED MAX ROUNDING BOTTOM WITH MATURE DEF ZN FROM LOW                     
ACROSS SD/SRN MN.  SUBTLE SHRT WVS TRAVERSING ACTIVE SWLY FLOW                  
AIDING MCS WITH WIDESPREAD QG FORCING AND UVM OVER MUCH OF MO RIVER             
VALLEY.  MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRT WV ALSO GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT OF            
TROUGH BASE.  CONVECTION LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH H85/H7 THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND SW-NE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AXIS.  MUCAPES AND                  
NEGATIVE H7/H5 THETA-E LAPSE RATES PUSHING NEWD INTO IA ALONG WITH              
DEEP SHEAR GRADIENT SO STORMS MAY BEGIN PRODUCING HAIL MUCH LIKE                
TOWARD OMA.  07Z SFC ANLYS PLACES PARENT LOW OVER OK PANHANDLE WITH             
SECONDARY WV ALONG KS/NE BORDER.  WRMFNT ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM            
NRN LOW ACROSS SRN MO WITH INVERTED TROUGH SHOWING ITS HAND INTO                
SIOUXLAND AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY EFFORT OBVIOUSLY DEVOTED TO IMPENDING SIGNIFICANT RAIN                  
EVENT.  NOT A QUESTION OF IF...BUT WHERE.  AFOREMENTIONED FORCING               
MECHANISMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MCS ACROSS IA TODAY WITH                       
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN LATER TODAY.  ALL 00Z MODELS OUTSIDE OF            
ECMWF NOW FAVORING MORE NLY SOLUTION.  MODEL CONSENSUS WILL BE                  
FAVORED THIS MORNING...BUT DO HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS.  GFS DOES                 
CONTAIN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT TIMES BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO                       
CONTAMINATE THE OVERALL FORECAST MUCH...AND ANYTIME THE NAM IS IN               
AGREEMENT IN THE LATER PERIODS RAISES SOME EYEBROWS.                            
CONSENSUS HAS OLD SD/MN DEF ZN FADING OUT WITH ANOTHER CYCLE                    
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AS SHRT WV PULLS OUT OF TROUGH INTO MO                   
VALLEY.  DEF ZN AND STRONG BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND                        
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SETUP SOMEWHERE FROM NRN NE INTO NWRN              
IA OR SRN MN.  HAVE CONTINUED TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH                  
CATEGORICAL POPS IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY AND NRN/WRN SECTIONS                   
TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC TO SUGGEST DRY SLOT PUNCHING                
INTO ERN IA SO HAVE REDUCED POPS SOMEWHAT E.  LAST LOBE OF FORCING              
ROTATES AROUND LOW MON WITH CAT POPS LINGERING E...AND CHANCES STILL            
INTO TUE ALTHOUGH WORST SHOULD BE OVER BY THAT TIME.                            
NEXT SYS SHOULD COME ONSHORE LATE MON AND REACH MIDWEST QUICKLY ON              
HEELS OF THIS SYS WED.  GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST PCPN REACHING WRN                
SECTIONS WED AND ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED POPS                 
ACCORDINGLY BUT NO CHANGES BEYOND THAT.                                         
MAY SEE QUITE A TEMP SPREAD TODAY NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM NW-SE AS               
WRMFNT TRIES TO CROSS MO BORDER.  THUS RESULTED IN AT OR BELOW                  
COOLEST GUIDANCE NW...AND AT OR ABOVE WARMEST SE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS DO            
NOT SUGGEST MUCH WARMING POTENTIAL MON SO TOWARD OR BELOW COOLEST               
GUIDANCE.  THIS SEEMS TO BE ESPECIALLY TRUE TUE SO UNDERCUT COOLER              
NAM MOS BY A CATEGORY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED A               
BLEND FOR MINS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
HYDRO CONCERNS STILL AN ISSUE WITH FLOOD WATCH BEING CONSIDERED.                
QUESTION WAS WHERE.  WAS HOPING 03Z SREF WOULD PROVIDE SOME                     
CONFIDENCE...BUT IT HAS NOT SUGGESTING HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OUR                   
NORTH.  00Z NAM/GFS/GEFS PAINTED NWRN IA IN THREAT WHILE WHAT                   
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER BUT TYPICALLY RELIABLE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH.               
QPF GRIDS REFLECT 2-4 INCHES NW WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL                     
CONSENSUS...AND QUICK LOOK AT 06Z NAM NOW EVEN SHOWS 5+ INCH AMOUNTS            
BY MON EVE NRN PORTIONS...HOWEVER 06Z GFS SUGGESTS 2-3 INCH MAX NOW             
TOWARD SIOUXLAND AREA. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN BUT STILL             
UNSURE ON EXACT LOCATION TO TARGET WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH BUT                   
CERTAINLY MONITOR CLOSELY AND CONTINUE TO HIT HARD IN HWO.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/06Z                                                              
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NE AND KS THIS EVENING.              
RUC MODEL AND GFS SHOWING TREMENDOUS LIFT ALONG THE 850 MB BOUNDARY             
CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IA TNT. STORMS BLOSSOMING IN NE             
WILL BE TIED TO BOUNDARY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE           
EASTWARD INTO THE STATE WITH TIME. CONSEQUENTLY...CIGS WILL LOWER OR            
REMAIN IN IFR CAT FOR MUCH OF NORTH THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS                    
CONVECTION GIVES WAY TO STRATIFORM STEADY RAINFALL IN MORE STABLE               
AIRMASS TO THE NORTHEAST. VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED TO CRASH AND REMAIN IN            
THE IFR CATEGORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD. OVER THE                     
SOUTH...AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BKN MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE PM               
HOURS NEAR KDSM AND KOTM. PSBL THUNDER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS                
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VCTS COVERS BEST             
THERE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BSS/MJA/REV                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                     
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 14/06Z.                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH                    
DEEPENING SFC LOW IN SE COLORADO.  AMPLE MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN                
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND               
HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SFC BOUNDARY IN N             
KS AND MO.  OTHERWISE...LOW CLDS AND SOME PATCHY MIST REMAINS ACRS              
MUCH OF CENTRAL IA IN EASTERLY SFC FLOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLOW EVOLUTION OF WESTERN TROF AS IT               
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE WL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AS DEEP                   
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM             
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TOWARD IA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO                   
INCREASE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD AND SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO            
THE STATE.  EXPECT TO SEE EXPANDING PCPN INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING            
AS LLJ FOCUSES INTO THE STATE WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.  WL                
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH CONTINUED FORCING                
ALLOWING PCPN TO KEEP GOING.  FRONT WL BOG DOWN ACRS CNTRL/SOUTHERN             
IA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS SFC LOW              
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  THIS WL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED             
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS                
TIMEFRAME.  CATEGORICAL POPS WL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME AS             
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR              
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  UPPER LOW WL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT              
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE LOW IN A REX                 
BLOCK FORMATION.  LINGERING THREAT OF PCPN WL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY             
AS STACKED SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACRS THE STATE.  WL HAVE ONLY                
SHORT BREAK AS STRONG PAC JET PUSHES NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES               
INTO THE MID SECTION TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  STILL             
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF SYSTEM AND EXTENT OF                      
DEEPENING...BUT STILL APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                    
TIMEFRAME FOR LARGEST IMPACT.  HAVE CONTINUED THREAT OF PCPN DURING             
THIS TIME AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ESF WILL REMAIN AS THREAT FOR LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT PERSISTS.                
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WL PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL               
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.  QPF REMAINS FROM ONE AND A             
HALF TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL                
POSSIBLE. FOCUS WL REMAIN ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS WELL             
AS THE MISSOURI WATERSHED IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA.  PWATS TO REMAIN                
UNSEASONABLY HIGH FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES WITH HIGH PCPN EFFICIENCY                
WITH DEEP SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS                
TIME OF YEAR.  EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION WL ALSO ADD TO THREAT OF            
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS.  FLOOD WATCH MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED IF                     
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/06Z                                                              
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NE AND KS THIS EVENING.              
RUC MODEL AND GFS SHOWING TREMENDOUS LIFT ALONG THE 850 MB BOUNDARY             
CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IA TNT. STORMS BLOSSOMING IN NE             
WILL BE TIED TO BOUNDARY AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE           
EASTWARD INTO THE STATE WITH TIME. CONSEQUENTLY...CIGS WILL LOWER               
OR REMAIN IN IFR CAT FOR MUCH OF NORTH THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS                 
CONVECTION GIVES WAY TO STRATIFORM STEADY RAINFALL IN MORE STABLE               
AIRMASS TO THE NORTHEAST. VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED TO CRASH AND REMAIN               
IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD. OVER THE                  
SOUTH...AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BKN MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE PM               
HOURS NEAR KDSM AND KOTM. PSBL THUNDER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS                
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. VCTS COVERS BEST             
THERE. /REV                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DONAVON/REV                                               
LONG...COGIL                                                                    
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
338 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING ALONG           
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                           
THIS EVENINGS UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB LOW JUST              
NORTH OF KGJT WITH A STRONG FETCH OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING                
FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW OVER SRN ARIZONA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH                 
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAD LIFTED OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND HAD                   
HELPED ORGANIZE AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                
THE REGION. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER                
ARIZONA. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING HAD ALSO SPREAD INTO WESTERN                    
KANSAS WITH 700 MB TEMPS COOLING TO +8C OVER KDDC. IN THE LOWER                 
LEVELS, A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A                  
COLD FRONT BISECTED SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO                      
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUED DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.                
STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA               
BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                               
THE 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE RUC HAVE A PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON THE               
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT EAST DURING THE DAY.                
BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE EAST OF KDDC.                
LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA               
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING A LOT OVER WHAT THEY              
ARE EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS FROM KHYS THROUGH KDDC COULD SEE                  
HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD                
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL NOT ALL                
THAT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AD WEST TEXAS BUT FARTHER SOUTH A               
TONGUE OF 60+ DEWPOINTS WERE MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE               
NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THIS TONGUE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP                  
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE ENOUGH                   
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE THEY GET GOING.                        
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING                    
BEFORE MOVING OUT WITH THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST,              
SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN                 
KANSAS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST               
CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA BUT CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME OF              
IT SPREADING INTO THE CWA SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING UP              
THERE.                                                                          
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES            
OVER WESTERN KS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH            
TX TUESDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THIS                   
BOUNDARY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SW KS TUESDAY                 
NIGHT, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL              
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS             
ARE ALL COMING IN LINE WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY THE              
CANADIAN AND UKMET AND EVEN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND            
RICH MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 6-12 UTC                   
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA                  
WEDNESDAY. ONE THING THAT COULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS HERE ON THE HIGH            
PLAINS IS THE CAPPING INVERSION. BUT GIVEN THE FAIRLY COOL TEMPS                
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM. SOME OF               
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES                
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE RAISED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD,                     
ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.           
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.            
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE FURTHER NORTH AND THE MOIST               
AXIS MAY BE FURTHER EAST. PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK VERY GOOD                  
AFTER WEDNESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS WILL LINGER ALL DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AT GCK. STRATUS              
WILL DEVELOP AT DDC/HYS DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS                
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT,             
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS AT GCK. VSBYS MAY DROP TO 3 TO 5 MILES AT              
TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT GCK. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL                
STAY EAST OF THE AVIATION SITES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE               
ANY TIME TODAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  74  48  63  42 /  30  30   0   0                                           
GCK  61  44  63  41 /  30  10   0   0                                           
EHA  64  44  64  42 /  20   0   0   0                                           
LBL  64  45  65  42 /  20   0   0   0                                           
HYS  70  49  61  42 /  50  60  20   0                                           
P28  80  52  66  46 /  60  60  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/24                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
250 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE                
LATEST RUC SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND LINGERING THROUGH            
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. INCREASED            
CLOUD COVER TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THIS AREA. MODELS ALSO            
SHOW A WEAKENING H5 WAVE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING                
THIS TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP THOUGH. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER AMOUNTS             
ELSEWHERE TO GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE                   
TEMPERATURES MUCH...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ATTM...MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO PLUNGE. AS             
THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...THIS SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP...HOWEVER            
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE REACHED WITH THE HELP           
OF THE INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TEXT...DIGITAL AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS           
WILL BE OUT SOON.                                                               
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH             
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. THE CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM           
IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOW                 
TEMPERATURES. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL             
CLOUD...CI/CS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND ALSO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD           
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLOUD STREAMING EAST             
FROM AREA OF CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI...BUT ALSO SHOW CLOUD ERODING             
AS IT MOVES EAST. VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN SKY               
COVER WITH OLD FWC SHOWING OVC AT JKL...LOZ AND 5I3 BY 12Z SUNDAY.              
HOWEVER THIS IS OUTLIER WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING SCT TO CLEAR.               
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS....AND GFS AND WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE                  
FOLLOWED IDEA OF SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT. BUT ALSO EXPECT               
CLOUDS TO REMAIN MAINLY SCATTERED AT BEST...ALTHOUGH SOME BKN BUT               
THIN CS/CI MAY OCCUR.                                                           
WITH SKIES BEGINNING AS CLEAR THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE            
LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S...AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...EXPECT ABOUT          
A 10 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO DEVELOP. THE SLIGHT               
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING             
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING. WE HAD A COUPLE OF COOP REPORTS OF 32 THIS             
MORNING AND A 31 FROM A WEATHER SPOTTER. EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO             
BE IN THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT...BUT THERMAL BELT RIDGES IN THE UPPER            
40S. THE MAVMOS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS TEMPERATURE SPLIT THE                 
BEST...AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                            
ON SUNDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES           
TO BE IN THE 70S. MAVMOS LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE EAST BASED ON           
ITS PERFORMANCE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF             
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM UP CONTINUES WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SEVERAL             
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT.                                     
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY IN THEIR HANDLING OF NEXT WEEKS              
WEATHER. DGEX AND GFS ARE MUCH SLOWER AND NOT NEARLY AS WET AS ECMWF            
RUN. BOTH GFS AND DGEX FORM A VERY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE 6Z RUN.            
THE GFS BACKED OFF ON THIS FEATURE IN THE 12Z RUN DRAMATICALLY. WITH            
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO WEATHER FOR THE END             
OF NEXT WEEK...WENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH SOME                 
TWEAKS MADE BASED ON THE 6Z DGEX SOLUTION. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES             
OVERALL FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST           
FOR NOW NEXT SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCES AMONGST               
THE DIFFERENT MODELS. CONTINUED TREND OF COOLER THAN MEXMOS DAYTIME             
HIGH TEMPERATURES...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER               
ANTICIPATED WED-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AND THE INCREASED CHANCES OF                   
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE TO           
FRONTAL PASSAGES NEXT WEEK. SKY COVER FORECAST WAS QUITE A CHALLENGE            
WITH THE MODELS ALL COMING WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...SO WENT              
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST           
COVERAGE OF LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS.             
DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE           
THERE. KEPT IN MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT           
TO PERHAPS SPARK AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. GFS ALSO SHOWING A                   
PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY STRONG 850 HPA JET DURING THE DAY                         
TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODEL DATA FOR 3              
DAYS NOW...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORES. THESE           
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE JET FEATURES WILL ALSO             
LEND SUPPORT TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BY INCREASING                 
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE                      
ATMOSPHERE. WENT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE                  
BOARD...WITH THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME             
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOIST              
NORTHWEST FLOW...IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST              
VIRGINIA BORDERS...SO A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST             
FOR THOSE TWO DAYS AS WELL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A THINNING AND              
SCATTERING DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE SKY DURING THE               
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMPLETELY SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY               
SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP BR FORMATION TO A MINIMUM AND NOT                
WORTH CARRYING IN THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE                    
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE EAST WHEN THERE IS A DIRECTION.                      
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SBH/WJM                                                            
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR LO OVER SE                
CANADA FINALLY EDGING EWD AND GIVING WAY TO SHRTWV RDGING OVER THE              
UPR GRT LKS. AXIS OF SFC HI PRES UNDER THIS RDG STRETCHING FM NW                
ONTARIO INTO WI IS BRINGING A MOCLR AND CHILLY NGT TO THE FA AS 00Z             
TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWS A DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. TWO SHRTWVS             
OF INTEREST TO THE W. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF               
SRN BRANCH UPR TROF OVER THE SW CONUS. CLDS/SHRA IN THE WAD PATTERN             
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF/SHRTWV ARE AS CLOSE AS SW MN. ANOTHER              
MORE MSTR DEPRIVED SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN MORE SUBTLE NRN BRANCH FLOW NR            
THE US/CNDN BORDER IS MOVING THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN.                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TEMPS TDAY THEN PCPN CHCS TNGT              
INTO MID WEEK.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV RDGING/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS PROGGED TO DOMINATE            
THE FA. ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HI CLDS WL SPILL INTO THE FA FM THE W-S               
TDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF TROFFING MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE             
DAY WL BE DRY. MIXING TO H825-85 ON NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI                
TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 50S.                                               
THE FCST FOR TNGT WL DEPEND ON INTERACTION BTWN NRN BRANCH SHRTWV               
RIPPLING TOWARD NW LK SUP BY 12Z MON AND UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS AND             
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR SHIELD STREAMING NEWD TOWARD             
THE CWA. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SEEM THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE FCST               
SCENARIO SHOWING A LESS-PHASED NRN BRANCH SHRTWV SHUNTING THE                   
MAJORITY OF THE MSTR TO THE S...A RSNBL CONCLUSION GIVEN POSITIVE               
TILT OF THE UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS. IN FACT...NCEP PREFERS THE                  
GFS/UKMET. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... EXPECT A SHARP NRN EDGE              
TO PCPN SHIELD. GFS FCST SDNGS/SHARPEST H6-8 FGEN SUGS BULK OF PCPN             
WL STAY TO THE S AND IMPACT MAINLY ONLY SRN MNM COUNTY. GOING PCPN              
FCST RESTRICTING POPS TO THE SRN TIER SEEMS IN LINE WITH GFS FCST               
DYNAMICS/MSTR. THE ONLY CHG MADE WAS TO BUMP POP UP TO 50 ARND MNM              
TO MESH BETTER WITH GRB FCST. ALTHOUGH GFS MOS SHOWS POP ARND 30 AS             
FAR N AS IWD-MQT-ERY...MODEL FCST SDNGS SHOW A PROHIBITIVELY DEEP               
DRY LYR THERE FOR ANY CHC OF RA N OF IMT-ISQ OR SO. AS FOR                      
TEMPS...TRENDED A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S            
WITH EXPECTATION THIS DRY AIR WL ALLOW SGNFT RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS              
IN LGT WIND REGIME DESPITE HI CLDS.                                             
GFS/UKMET SHOW DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE FA IN THE WAKE OF NRN              
BRANCH SHRTWV PASSAGE ON MON AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER ONTARIO UNDER             
BLDG UPR RDG IN SCNTRL CAN. ANY LINGERING RA OVER THE FAR S WL END              
EARLY IN THE DAY AS LLVL NE FLOW PUSHES DRY AIR INTO THE FA...BUT               
GFS FCST SDNGS HINT CLD COVER AT MNM MAY BE FAIRLY STUBBORN. BUT TO             
THE N...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSUNNY.                                            
GFS/UKMET SHOW DRY HI PRES REMAINING DOMINANT MON NGT...BUT BOTH                
MODELS HINT THAT SHRTWV MOVING NWD ON THE ERN FLANK OF CUTOFF IN THE            
PLAINS WL CAUSE THIS LARGER SCALE FEATURE TO WOBBLE TO THE N WITH               
INCRSG RH ALF. GFS EVEN GENERATES SOME PCPN OVER SRN MNM COUNTY BY              
12Z TUE. HOWEVER...GFS FCSTS SHARPEST H6-8 FGEN/UPR DVGC TO STAY TO             
THE S. SINCE MODEL FCST SDNG FOR MNM AT 12Z TUE SHOWS A 100-150MB               
DEEP DRY LYR CENTERED ARND H75...WL GO DRY EVERYWHERE THE WHOLE NGT             
IN LGT WITH UKMET. TENDED BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OVER THE N             
WITH EXPECTATION OF TENACIOUS DRY AIR BUT NR GUIDANCE ACRS THE S                
WHERE DEEPER MSTR WL ARRIVE OVERNGT.                                            
GFS/UKMET BOTH SHOW MSTR CREEPING NWD ON TUE AS PLAINS TROF DRFITS              
SLOWLY NEWD. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...KEPT FLAVOR OF                
PREVIOUS FCST SHOWING GRDLY INCRSG POPS S-N. TENDED A TAD SLOWER                
THAN THE GFS AS UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE NEW 00Z ECMWF TEND TO HOLD             
DRY AIR IN LONGER. BUMPED UP TEMPS/POPS AND ADDED PTCHY FOG ON TUE              
NGT TO REFLECT APRCH OF WARM FNT/ABUNDANT CLD COVER/INCRSG LLVL                 
MSTR. NO OTHER CHGS MADE TO FCST.                                               
COORDINATED WITH APX/LOT/GRB.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS            
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE                   
EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN               
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS                
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25                
KNOTS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                
BETWEEN THE ONTARIO HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD                
INTO THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
</pre> mi