AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
737 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEB CAMS SHOWING DENSE FOG AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING                     
DRIZZLE AT CRIPPLE CREEK...CANON CITY AND RYE. THE SAME COULD LIKELY BE         
SAID ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET                    
MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS/RATON PASS...AND TELLER COUNTY.            
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS DURING PARTS               
OF TODAY. THE STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BURN OFF ACROSS THE               
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...AND WESTERN                  
FREMONT COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. METZE                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
A QUICK UPDATE ON THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.                       
11U-3.9(FOG) SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA SHOWED STRATUS NOW COVERS A                 
GOOD "CHUNK" OF SOUTHEAST CO TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND              
THROUGH CHAFFEE COUNTY. WEB CAMS AROUND SUNRISE SHOWED FOG...DENSE              
AT TIMES...AT RYE...CANON CITY...CRIPPLE CREEK...WIDEFIELD...AND                
MONUMENT TOWARDS THE COUNTY LINE. ALSO...NOTED RADAR VERY LIGHT ECHO            
RETURNS PICKING UP SOME OF THE FOG/DRIZZLE AROUND FORT CARSON TO                
CANON CITY TO RYE AND TRYING TO EXPAND TOWARDS COLORADO SPRINGS.                
CLOUD CEILING HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND IN COLORADO               
SPRINGS THANKS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND A NORTHEAST WIND                
AT 10-15 MPH CREATING DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.                   
THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS...MIDDLE TO UPPER                   
20S...AROUND DENVER INTO NORTHEASTERN CO. THIS COULD STILL MOVE                 
INTO EL PASO COUNTY JUST AS THE SURFACE WIND VEERS TO THE                       
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH BY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                
THIS FACT MAKES ME A LITTLE HESITANT IN DROPPING THE WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE                    
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THE 13KM RUC MODEL STILL WANTS TO VEER THE               
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST NOW BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/20 AND                 
SOUTHERLY AROUND 12Z/20. VERY TOUGH CALL AND TERRAIN DICTATES                   
EVERYTHING AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS. METZE                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
.AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DENSE FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY TODAY...             
.MUCH COLDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO TODAY...                                    
CURRENTLY...HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z/20 SHOWED THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY WELL PAST SOUTHEASTERN CO AND UP AGAINST THE EASTERN CO                
MOUNTAINS. THE WELL ADVERTISED 1040-1045MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ABOUT TO            
ENTER MT/ND EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE EASTERN 1/2 OF CO. SATELLITE 11U-3.9U(FOG) IMAGERY REVEALED THE             
LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO FREMONT COUNTY...EASTERN SLOPES OF THE                
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY WITH             
PIKES PEAK STILL CLEAR PER LIVE WEB CAM...AND OF COURSE ALL OF                  
SOUTHEASTERN CO. AS OF 09Z/20...THE FOG LEVEL WAS AROUND THE 6.5K-9K            
FT MSL LAYER. CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR-LOW VFR FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW              
6K FT MSL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS. LIVE WEB CAMS ACROSS               
MONUMENT SHOW DENSE FOG. A CALL TO THE EL PASO COUNTY SHERIFF                   
INDICATED ONLY DENSE FOG IN MONUMENT AND NO FREEZING DRIZZLE YET.               
RYE DOESN`T LOOK TOO FOGGY YET PER LIVE WEB CAM. THE KMNH AWOS                  
SENSOR JUST NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY HAS 1/4SM FZFG AND 25F.                     
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ARE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER             
20S WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. THE                   
NORTHEAST WIND(DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE) AT COS IS              
KEEPING THE CEILING STILL LOW VFR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE                       
CONSIDERING BULLSEYE AWOS IS 300 FOOT AND 3 MILES MIST AT 09Z/20.               
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED 20-35 DEGREE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST CO STILL LOOK ON TRACK. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS MAY ONLY BE 5-10              
DEGREES FROM EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES. GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER                
WILL BE THE FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. IT            
APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG/FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH TODAY AND PROBABLY                
AROUND THE RATON AND LA VETA PASSES. LCL HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE           
SURFACE. FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF                    
SOUTHEASTERN CO. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE                             
NORTHEAST(DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE) TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY TODAY. THE 08Z/20 13KM RUC                
MODEL HAS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY BETWEEN                
13Z-16Z/20 THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE                        
FLOW...TRAPPED COLD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION ALOFT...AND               
RELATIVELY DRIER ALOFT ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP THE LIFR-IFR CIGS/VIS                
ACROSS MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY AND A NARROW RIBBON BETWEEN 6K-9K FT              
MSL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN                
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING ITS               
THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND MORNING/AFTERNOON RUSH HOURS...WILL           
GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. STILL THINK THERE COULD BE              
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONSIDERING THE -3C TO -10C LAYER              
2D FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMES INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH A                  
SECOND SURGE OF COLD MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR. MEANWHILE...AROUND THE                
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY                
SUNNY AND RELATIVELY WARMER. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE            
LEADVILLE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN COLORADO SPRINGS.                             
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CP AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECEDE EASTERN CO WITH                
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS-IN            
TONIGHT WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO +2C TO +3C ACROSS THE             
I-25 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND SHOULD HELP            
TO START DIMINISHING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO...EXCEPT             
THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE/COS WHERE IT`S STILL UPSLOPE FLOW. AS                
TYPICAL WITH THESE SCENARIOS....THE STRATUS/FOG MAY HANG ON ACROSS              
EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW CAN DEVELOP LATE               
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY IN TIME ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT...BUT WILL LET             
THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS IF NEEDED. 17                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
.DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...                   
QUIET AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ROCKIES REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE                 
OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS OVR THE INTERMTN REGION AND WESTERN               
CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE              
AVERAGE...WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS.             
RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY FRI MORNING...AS A LEE TROUGH                   
RE-ESTABLISHES...AND SRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SD AND ERN NE. NO REAL WX CHANGE IS                    
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLDER AIR AND ANY REAL                      
MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NE OF OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL               
FOLLOW ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A                     
SIMILAR TRACK THRU THE DAKOTAS ON SUN. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL            
NOT BRING MUCH MOISTURE TO THE AREA...MAYBE JUST AN INCREASE OF                 
CLOUDS TO THE NRN ZONES.                                                        
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MON THRU WED...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL               
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS OVR THE                    
PLAINS STAYING IN THE 60S. THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN TIME              
FOR THANKSGIVING...AS A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO SETS UP INVOLVING                 
TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET. FAR TO EARLY TO SAY HOW THIS PATTERN             
CHANGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SOME         
MUCH NEEDED MTN SNOWS BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 44                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
ER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN                
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE DRIZZLE SHOULD AFFECT THE KCOS TERMINAL MUCH OF            
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE             
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KPUB             
TERMINAL WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR TODAY...AND THEN CEILINGS AND                    
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT. VFR CLEAR BELOW 12K FT MSL                 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALS TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT.                   
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND FOG JUST WEST OF THE I-25              
CORRIDOR. METZE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ079-               
081-083>085-087-088.                                                            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ072-074-                    
076>078.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
641 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A QUICK UPDATE ON THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.                       
11U-3.9(FOG) SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA SHOWED STRATUS NOW COVERS A                 
GOOD "CHUNK" OF SOUTHEAST CO TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND              
THROUGH CHAFFEE COUNTY. WEB CAMS AROUND SUNRISE SHOWED FOG...DENSE              
AT TIMES...AT RYE...CANON CITY...CRIPPLE CREEK...WIDEFIELD...AND                
MONUMENT TOWARDS THE COUNTY LINE. ALSO...NOTED RADAR VERY LIGHT ECHO            
RETURNS PICKING UP SOME OF THE FOG/DRIZZLE AROUND FORT CARSON TO                
CANON CITY TO RYE AND TRYING TO EXPAND TOWARDS COLORADO SPRINGS.                
CLOUD CEILING HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND IN COLORADO               
SPRINGS THANKS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND A NORTHEAST WIND                
AT 10-15 MPH CREATING DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.                   
THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS...MIDDLE TO UPPER                   
20S...AROUND DENVER INTO NORTHEASTERN CO. THIS COULD STILL MOVE                 
INTO EL PASO COUNTY JUST AS THE SURFACE WIND VEERS TO THE                       
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH BY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                
THIS FACT MAKES ME A LITTLE HESITANT IN DROPPING THE WINTER                     
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE                    
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THE 13KM RUC MODEL STILL WANTS TO VEER THE               
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST NOW BETWEEN 15Z-18Z/20 AND                 
SOUTHERLY AROUND 12Z/20. VERY TOUGH CALL AND TERRAIN DICTATES                   
EVERYTHING AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS. METZE                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
..AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DENSE FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY TODAY...            
..MUCH COLDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO TODAY...                                   
CURRENTLY...HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z/20 SHOWED THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY WELL PAST SOUTHEASTERN CO AND UP AGAINST THE EASTERN CO                
MOUNTAINS. THE WELL ADVERTISED 1040-1045MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ABOUT TO            
ENTER MT/ND EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE EASTERN 1/2 OF CO. SATELLITE 11U-3.9U(FOG) IMAGERY REVEALED THE             
LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO FREMONT COUNTY...EASTERN SLOPES OF THE                
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY WITH             
PIKES PEAK STILL CLEAR PER LIVE WEB CAM...AND OF COURSE ALL OF                  
SOUTHEASTERN CO. AS OF 09Z/20...THE FOG LEVEL WAS AROUND THE 6.5K-9K            
FT MSL LAYER. CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR-LOW VFR FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW              
6K FT MSL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS. LIVE WEB CAMS ACROSS               
MONUMENT SHOW DENSE FOG. A CALL TO THE EL PASO COUNTY SHERIFF                   
INDICATED ONLY DENSE FOG IN MONUMENT AND NO FREEZING DRIZZLE YET.               
RYE DOESN`T LOOK TOO FOGGY YET PER LIVE WEB CAM. THE KMNH AWOS                  
SENSOR JUST NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY HAS 1/4SM FZFG AND 25F.                     
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ARE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER             
20S WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. THE                   
NORTHEAST WIND(DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE) AT COS IS              
KEEPING THE CEILING STILL LOW VFR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE                       
CONSIDERING BULLSEYE AWOS IS 300 FOOT AND 3 MILES MIST AT 09Z/20.               
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED 20-35 DEGREE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST CO STILL LOOK ON TRACK. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS MAY ONLY BE 5-10              
DEGREES FROM EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES. GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER                
WILL BE THE FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. IT            
APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG/FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH TODAY AND PROBABLY                
AROUND THE RATON AND LA VETA PASSES. LCL HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE           
SURFACE. FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF                    
SOUTHEASTERN CO. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE                             
NORTHEAST(DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE) TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY TODAY. THE 08Z/20 13KM RUC                
MODEL HAS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY BETWEEN                
13Z-16Z/20 THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE                        
FLOW...TRAPPED COLD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION ALOFT...AND               
RELATIVELY DRIER ALOFT ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP THE LIFR-IFR CIGS/VIS                
ACROSS MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY AND A NARROW RIBBON BETWEEN 6K-9K FT              
MSL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN                
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING ITS               
THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND MORNING/AFTERNOON RUSH HOURS...WILL           
GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. STILL THINK THERE COULD BE              
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONSIDERING THE -3C TO -10C LAYER              
2D FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMES INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH A                  
SECOND SURGE OF COLD MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR. MEANWHILE...AROUND THE                
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY                
SUNNY AND RELATIVELY WARMER. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE            
LEADVILLE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN COLORADO SPRINGS.                             
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CP AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECEDE EASTERN CO WITH                
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS-IN            
TONIGHT WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO +2C TO +3C ACROSS THE             
I-25 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND SHOULD HELP            
TO START DIMINISHING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO...EXCEPT             
THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE/COS WHERE IT`S STILL UPSLOPE FLOW. AS                
TYPICAL WITH THESE SCENARIOS....THE STRATUS/FOG MAY HANG ON ACROSS              
EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW CAN DEVELOP LATE               
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY IN TIME ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT...BUT WILL LET             
THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS IF NEEDED. 17                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
..DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...                  
QUIET AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ROCKIES REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE                 
OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS OVR THE INTERMTN REGION AND WESTERN               
CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE              
AVERAGE...WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS.             
RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY FRI MORNING...AS A LEE TROUGH                   
RE-ESTABLISHES...AND SRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SD AND ERN NE. NO REAL WX CHANGE IS                    
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLDER AIR AND ANY REAL                      
MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NE OF OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL               
FOLLOW ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A                     
SIMILAR TRACK THRU THE DAKOTAS ON SUN. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL            
NOT BRING MUCH MOISTURE TO THE AREA...MAYBE JUST AN INCREASE OF                 
CLOUDS TO THE NRN ZONES.                                                        
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MON THRU WED...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL               
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS OVR THE                    
PLAINS STAYING IN THE 60S. THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN TIME              
FOR THANKSGIVING...AS A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO SETS UP INVOLVING                 
TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET. FAR TO EARLY TO SAY HOW THIS PATTERN             
CHANGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SOME         
MUCH NEEDED MTN SNOWS BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 44                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
ER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN                
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE DRIZZLE SHOULD AFFECT THE KCOS TERMINAL MUCH OF            
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE             
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KPUB             
TERMINAL WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR TODAY...AND THEN CEILINGS AND                    
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT. VFR CLEAR BELOW 12K FT MSL                 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALS TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT.                   
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND FOG JUST WEST OF THE I-25              
CORRIDOR. 17                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084-               
085.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
347 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DENSE FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY TODAY...           
...MUCH COLDER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO TODAY...                                  
CURRENTLY...HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z/20 SHOWED THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY WELL PAST SOUTHEASTERN CO AND UP AGAINST THE EASTERN CO                
MOUNTAINS. THE WELL ADVERTISED 1040-1045MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ABOUT TO            
ENTER MT/ND EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE EASTERN 1/2 OF CO. SATELLITE 11U-3.9U(FOG) IMAGERY REVEALED THE             
LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO FREMONT COUNTY...EASTERN SLOPES OF THE                
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY WITH             
PIKES PEAK STILL CLEAR PER LIVE WEB CAM...AND OF COURSE ALL OF                  
SOUTHEASTERN CO. AS OF 09Z/20...THE FOG LEVEL WAS AROUND THE 6.5K-9K            
FT MSL LAYER. CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR-LOW VFR FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW              
6K FT MSL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS. LIVE WEB CAMS ACROSS               
MONUMENT SHOW DENSE FOG. A CALL TO THE EL PASO COUNTY SHERIFF                   
INDICATED ONLY DENSE FOG IN MONUMENT AND NO FREEZING DRIZZLE YET.               
RYE DOESN`T LOOK TOO FOGGY YET PER LIVE WEB CAM. THE KMNH AWOS                  
SENSOR JUST NORTH OF EL PASO COUNTY HAS 1/4SM FZFG AND 25F.                     
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ARE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER             
20S WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. THE                   
NORTHEAST WIND(DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE) AT COS IS              
KEEPING THE CEILING STILL LOW VFR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE                       
CONSIDERING BULLSEYE AWOS IS 300 FOOT AND 3 MILES MIST AT 09Z/20.               
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED 20-35 DEGREE COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST CO STILL LOOK ON TRACK. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ACROSS             
OUR SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS MAY ONLY BE 5-10              
DEGREES FROM EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES. GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER                
WILL BE THE FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. IT            
APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG/FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH TODAY AND PROBABLY                
AROUND THE RATON AND LA VETA PASSES. LCL HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE           
SURFACE. FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF                    
SOUTHEASTERN CO. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE                             
NORTHEAST(DOWNSLOPE OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE) TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY TODAY. THE 08Z/20 13KM RUC                
MODEL HAS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY BETWEEN                
13Z-16Z/20 THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE                        
FLOW...TRAPPED COLD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION ALOFT...AND               
RELATIVELY DRIER ALOFT ALOFT...SHOULD KEEP THE LIFR-IFR CIGS/VIS                
ACROSS MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY AND A NARROW RIBBON BETWEEN 6K-9K FT              
MSL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN                
VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING ITS               
THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND MORNING/AFTERNOON RUSH HOURS...WILL           
GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. STILL THINK THERE COULD BE              
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONSIDERING THE -3C TO -10C LAYER              
2D FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMES INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH A                  
SECOND SURGE OF COLD MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR. MEANWHILE...AROUND THE                
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY                
SUNNY AND RELATIVELY WARMER. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE            
LEADVILLE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN COLORADO SPRINGS.                             
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CP AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECEDE EASTERN CO WITH                
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS-IN            
TONIGHT WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO +2C TO +3C ACROSS THE             
I-25 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND SHOULD HELP            
TO START DIMINISHING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO...EXCEPT             
THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE/COS WHERE IT`S STILL UPSLOPE FLOW. AS                
TYPICAL WITH THESE SCENARIOS....THE STRATUS/FOG MAY HANG ON ACROSS              
EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL THE SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW CAN DEVELOP LATE               
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER                
ADVISORY IN TIME ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT...BUT WILL LET             
THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS IF NEEDED. METZE                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...                 
QUIET AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ROCKIES REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE                 
OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS OVR THE INTERMTN REGION AND WESTERN               
CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE              
AVERAGE...WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS.             
RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY FRI MORNING...AS A LEE TROUGH                   
RE-ESTABLISHES...AND SRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SD AND ERN NE. NO REAL WX CHANGE IS                    
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLDER AIR AND ANY REAL                      
MOISTURE REMAIN WELL TO THE NE OF OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL               
FOLLOW ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A                     
SIMILAR TRACK THRU THE DAKOTAS ON SUN. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL            
NOT BRING MUCH MOISTURE TO THE AREA...MAYBE JUST AN INCREASE OF                 
CLOUDS TO THE NRN ZONES.                                                        
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MON THRU WED...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL               
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS OVR THE                    
PLAINS STAYING IN THE 60S. THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN TIME              
FOR THANKSGIVING...AS A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO SETS UP INVOLVING                 
TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET. FAR TO EARLY TO SAY HOW THIS PATTERN             
CHANGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SOME         
MUCH NEEDED MTN SNOWS BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ROSE                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN                
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE DRIZZLE SHOULD AFFECT THE KCOS TERMINAL MUCH OF            
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE             
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KPUB             
TERMINAL WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR TODAY...AND THEN CEILINGS AND                    
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT. VFR CLEAR BELOW 12K FT MSL                 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALS TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT.                   
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND FOG JUST WEST OF THE I-25              
CORRIDOR. METZE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084-               
085.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/44                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
837 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
836 PM CST                                                                      
RADAR TRENDS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEPICT                   
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE               
MICHIGAN. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP                   
ACROSS FAR SOUTH LAKE MICHIGAN LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO...THOUGH                   
STILL APPEARS MAIN LES AXIS AT THIS TIME IS ALONG EASTERN SHORE                 
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. NEW 00Z NAM IN THROUGH 48+                      
HOURS...AND TENDS TO KEEP MAIN CONVERGENT/QPF AXIS OFF TO THE EAST              
OF PORTER COUNTY...WHICH MAKES ME SUSPECT THAT OUR SNOW AMOUNTS                 
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. WHILE HAVE NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE                
TO DROP ONGOING WARNING FOR PORTER COUNTY...HAVE SHAVED TOTAL SNOW              
AMOUNTS A BIT MORE TOWARD 5 TO 7 INCHES MAX ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST                
PORTER COUNTY.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...FLURRIES          
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE               
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BUMP WIND GUSTS                      
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRIDS OUT AND PUBLISHED. ZFP/WSW               
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
340 PM CST                                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS SURROUND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST                
INDIANA AS REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY                    
DRIVING SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE OHIO              
VALLEY BY FRI MORNING AND CARVING OUT AN EVEN DEEPER LONG WAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO ANOTHER                     
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER TO SURGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. H85            
TEMPS DROP TO -14 DEG C ACROSS SRN LK MICHIGAN RESULTING IN VERY                
STRONG THERMAL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE WATER SURFACE TO H850 TEMP                 
DIFFERENCES OF GREATER THAN 20 DEG C.                                           
PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHERE LES BANDS WILL SET UP WITH NW FLOW                     
VEERING MORE NORTH AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS. LOCAL WRF HINTING              
AT SIMILAR SCENARIO AS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES WITH INTENSE MID                 
LAKE BAND WAFFLING SOUTH ENHANCED BY MID LAKE CONVERGENCE AND THEN              
BLASTS ON SHORE AROUND 03Z WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES                
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA AS                  
WELL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND                      
COMPONENT ALONG THE MI SHORELINE EVIDENT AROUND 03Z.                            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFT TO 12 K FEET BY 00Z THIS EVENING PER NAM                 
FORECAST SOUNDING TIME SERIES AND STAYS THERE UNTIL ALMOST 12Z                  
FRI. AT THIS POINT INVERSION THEN COMES CRASHING DOWN AND LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY               
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE DAY                   
FRIDAY. BEFORE THEN... LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND                
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWS GRADIENT WIND TO TURN              
FROM 320 TO MORE 340-350 MAXIMIZING FETCH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE                
LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THESE FACTORS AT PLAY... WILL UPGRADE               
GOING LES ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR PORTER COUNTY AS EXPECT SNOWFALL              
TO VARY FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY.                           
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF SHARPLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AS WOULD              
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS AS FAR WEST AS ALONG I-65 BUT UP TO 4                    
INCHES ALONG THE LAKE-PORTER COUNTY LINE IN INDIANA.                            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER TO ABOUT 3 K FEET BY 13-14Z FRI... AND                  
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR/LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD                
AND EAST OF NW INDIANA. WINDS ALSO BACK TO MORE NW QUICKLY FRI                  
MORNING... WHICH WILL SHIFT ANY REMAINING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW BANDS EAST OF PORTER COUNTY BY MID MORNING LEAVING A                
FEW FLURRIES BEHIND.                                                            
ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE                
NEXT 36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN U.S. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND HEIGHTS              
BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE                  
EAST SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW              
LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX STREAKS SE               
IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN IL AND NW IND LATER ON SAT. WHILE                   
UPPER DYNAMICS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE... LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT WILL FORECAST                   
CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN.                                                             
ED F                                                                            
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                         
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMS IS                 
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS IN                   
ADVANCE OF DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE FAIRLY                 
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FORCING...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
PERSIST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.               
DESPITE INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES                 
SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED                   
MENTION OF CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH                
AXIS APPROACHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL MARGINAL IN TERMS OF              
PRECIP TYPE WITH LOW LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND                   
FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION            
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF INTO MONDAY...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. QUIET                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND NEXT CONCERN WILL BE                
POTENTIAL OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE               
WEEK. WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN NCEP ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE END OF THE            
WEEK...LARGE RUN TO RUN DEVIATIONS...AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AMONG             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL KEEP THANKSGIVING DRY AT THIS POINT.                 
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
00Z TAFS...VFR CIGS 4-6KFT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT MODELS                
DIFFER ON HOW SOON THEY WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. ALREADY SEEING               
BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NW IL BUT STILL A THICK DECK                    
ACROSS WI MOVING SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED SIMILAR TIMING OF PREVIOUS               
FORECAST WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT AREAS EAST OF GYY...BUT A FEW                
FLURRIES POSSIBLE THERE ALONG WITH CIGS LASTING INTO FRIDAY                     
MORNING.                                                                        
NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE TRICKY AGAIN TONIGHT THIS EVENING                  
WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KTS AT TIMES THEN NO GUSTS. HAVE KEPT                 
GUSTS IN THE LOW 20KTS THRU EARLY MORNING THEN AS CLOUDS SCATTER                
SHOULD SEE GUSTS DIMINISH WITH A PREVAILING 10-15KT WIND. WINDS                 
SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER              
GUSTS MIDDAY...THEN WIND DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS WITH SUNSET. CMS                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
141 PM CST                                                                      
LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG THIS                  
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN                   
MARITIMES...WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE                 
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND                
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO                  
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST...REACHING              
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE                  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST                    
TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. LOW                      
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.                
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.              
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF STRONG...POSSIBLY GALE FORCE...                     
NORTHWEST WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY.                                        
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.                       
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-                   
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM                
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 6 PM     
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
542 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
340 PM CST                                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS SURROUND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST                
INDIANA AS REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY                    
DRIVING SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE OHIO              
VALLEY BY FRI MORNING AND CARVING OUT AN EVEN DEEPER LONG WAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO ANOTHER                     
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER TO SURGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. H85            
TEMPS DROP TO -14 DEG C ACROSS SRN LK MICHIGAN RESULTING IN VERY                
STRONG THERMAL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE WATER SURFACE TO H850 TEMP                 
DIFFERENCES OF GREATER THAN 20 DEG C.                                           
PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHERE LES BANDS WILL SET UP WITH NW FLOW                     
VEERING MORE NORTH AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS. LOCAL WRF HINTING              
AT SIMILAR SCENARIO AS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES WITH INTENSE MID                 
LAKE BAND WAFFLING SOUTH ENHANCED BY MID LAKE CONVERGENCE AND THEN              
BLASTS ON SHORE AROUND 03Z WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES                
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA AS                  
WELL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND                      
COMPONENT ALONG THE MI SHORELINE EVIDENT AROUND 03Z.                            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFT TO 12 K FEET BY 00Z THIS EVENING PER NAM                 
FORECAST SOUNDING TIME SERIES AND STAYS THERE UNTIL ALMOST 12Z                  
FRI. AT THIS POINT INVERSION THEN COMES CRASHING DOWN AND LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY               
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE DAY                   
FRIDAY. BEFORE THEN... LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND                
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWS GRADIENT WIND TO TURN              
FROM 320 TO MORE 340-350 MAXIMIZING FETCH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE                
LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THESE FACTORS AT PLAY... WILL UPGRADE               
GOING LES ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR PORTER COUNTY AS EXPECT SNOWFALL              
TO VARY FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY.                           
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF SHARPLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AS WOULD              
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS AS FAR WEST AS ALONG I-65 BUT UP TO 4                    
INCHES ALONG THE LAKE-PORTER COUNTY LINE IN INDIANA.                            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER TO ABOUT 3 K FEET BY 13-14Z FRI... AND                  
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR/LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD                
AND EAST OF NW INDIANA. WINDS ALSO BACK TO MORE NW QUICKLY FRI                  
MORNING... WHICH WILL SHIFT ANY REMAINING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW BANDS EAST OF PORTER COUNTY BY MID MORNING LEAVING A                
FEW FLURRIES BEHIND.                                                            
ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE                
NEXT 36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN U.S. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND HEIGHTS              
BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE                  
EAST SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW              
LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX STREAKS SE               
IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN IL AND NW IND LATER ON SAT. WHILE                   
UPPER DYNAMICS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE... LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT WILL FORECAST                   
CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN.                                                             
ED F                                                                            
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                         
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMS IS                 
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS IN                   
ADVANCE OF DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE FAIRLY                 
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FORCING...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
PERSIST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.               
DESPITE INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES                 
SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED                   
MENTION OF CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH                
AXIS APPROACHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL MARGINAL IN TERMS OF              
PRECIP TYPE WITH LOW LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND                   
FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION            
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF INTO MONDAY...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. QUIET                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND NEXT CONCERN WILL BE                
POTENTIAL OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE               
WEEK. WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN NCEP ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE END OF THE            
WEEK...LARGE RUN TO RUN DEVIATIONS...AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AMONG             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL KEEP THANKSGIVING DRY AT THIS POINT.                 
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
00Z TAFS...VFR CIGS 4-6KFT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT MODELS                
DIFFER ON HOW SOON THEY WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. ALREADY SEEING               
BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NW IL BUT STILL A THICK DECK                    
ACROSS WI MOVING SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED SIMILAR TIMING OF PREVIOUS               
FORECAST WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT AREAS EAST OF GYY...BUT A FEW                
FLURRIES POSSIBLE THERE ALONG WITH CIGS LASTING INTO FRIDAY                     
MORNING.                                                                        
NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE TRICKY AGAIN TONIGHT THIS EVENING                  
WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KTS AT TIMES THEN NO GUSTS. HAVE KEPT                 
GUSTS IN THE LOW 20KTS THRU EARLY MORNING THEN AS CLOUDS SCATTER                
SHOULD SEE GUSTS DIMINISH WITH A PREVAILING 10-15KT WIND. WINDS                 
SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER              
GUSTS MIDDAY...THEN WIND DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS WITH SUNSET. CMS                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
141 PM CST                                                                      
LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG THIS                  
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN                   
MARITIMES...WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE                 
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND                
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO                  
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST...REACHING              
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE                  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST                    
TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. LOW                      
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.                
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.              
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF STRONG...POSSIBLY GALE FORCE...                     
NORTHWEST WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY.                                        
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.                       
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-                   
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM                
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL          
     6 PM FRIDAY.                                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM                 
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
112 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 111 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                               
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADD A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW               
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SE ILLINOIS TOO. ALREADY HAVE A CHANCE              
IN FOR CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND                  
FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN                
IL AS A SHORT WAVE/TROF OVER CENTRAL IL AT MID AFTERNOON PASSES                 
THRU SE IL DURING EARLY EVENING. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES                  
AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.                
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS                      
AFTERNOON WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.                         
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1145 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                              
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS            
THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS OF 3 TO 4K FT OVER CENTRAL IL THIS                 
AFTERNOON WILL SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE BUT VSBYS STILL ABOVE 5              
MILES. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING              
MID AND LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT DURING OVERNIGHT.                 
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES DUE TO ELONGATED SHORT WAVE OVER              
IA AND NORTHERN IL THAT MOVES INTO SE IL BY EARLY EVENING. 1049 MB              
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MANITOBA AND SASKETCHEWAN                      
PROVINCE LINE AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL                 
MOVE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z/FRI. THIS WILL ENSURE CLEAR                
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL IL FRIDAY. BRISK NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS                  
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY OVERNIGHT                
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY.                                                            
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 1000 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                              
FORECAST AGAIN LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND ONLY DID MINOR TWEAKS TO                
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO               
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND                
GUSTS IN THE 20S. MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.                    
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS STRONG 1049 MB CANADIAN HIGH                     
PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKETCHEWAN AND MANITOBA LINE AND RIDGING                   
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS                 
PUSHED THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF IL TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN TN                 
BORDER. NEARLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK COVERS IL WITH                 
CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S BUT              
RANGED FROM 32F IN BLOOMINGTON TO 38F IN LAWRENCEVILLE. NNW WINDS               
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WERE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS              
IN THE 20S. ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WAS OVER EASTERN                 
CANADA AND COVERING THE NE HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE UPPER LEVEL                   
RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. IL REMAINS IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                
SHORT WAVE WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN/WI TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
IA/IL BORDER.                                                                   
12Z RUC...NAM AND SREF MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A SHORT WAVE              
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND SE IL EARLY               
THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO JUST EXPECTING              
SCATTERED FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS                 
WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING TONIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH              
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY BY FRI MORNING. WILL BE               
A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. BRISK NW              
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY WITH                    
TEMPERATURES NOT CLIMBING MUCH MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS IN              
THE MID 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 30S IN SE IL WITH                         
LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 40F.                                                         
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1146 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1000 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                              
FORECAST AGAIN LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND ONLY DID MINOR TWEAKS TO                
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO               
OVERCAST SKIES TODAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND                
GUSTS IN THE 20S. MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.                    
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS STRONG 1049 MB CANADIAN HIGH                     
PRESSURE ALONG THE SASKETCHEWAN AND MANITOBA LINE AND RIDGING                   
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS                 
PUSHED THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF IL TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN TN                 
BORDER. NEARLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK COVERS IL WITH                 
CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S BUT              
RANGED FROM 32F IN BLOOMINGTON TO 38F IN LAWRENCEVILLE. NNW WINDS               
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WERE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS              
IN THE 20S. ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WAS OVER EASTERN                 
CANADA AND COVERING THE NE HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE UPPER LEVEL                   
RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. IL REMAINS IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                
SHORT WAVE WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN/WI TOWARD THE NORTHERN               
IA/IL BORDER.                                                                   
12Z RUC...NAM AND SREF MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A SHORT WAVE              
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND SE IL EARLY               
THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO JUST EXPECTING              
SCATTERED FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS                 
WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING TONIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH              
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY BY FRI MORNING. WILL BE               
A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. BRISK NW              
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY WITH                    
TEMPERATURES NOT CLIMBING MUCH MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. HIGHS IN              
THE MID 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 30S IN SE IL WITH                         
LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 40F.                                                         
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1145 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                              
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS            
THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS OF 3 TO 4K FT OVER CENTRAL IL THIS                 
AFTERNOON WILL SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE BUT VSBYS STILL ABOVE 5              
MILES. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING              
MID AND LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT DURING OVERNIGHT.                 
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES DUE TO ELONGATED SHORT WAVE OVER              
IA AND NORTHERN IL THAT MOVES INTO SE IL BY EARLY EVENING. 1049 MB              
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MANITOBA AND SASKETCHEWAN                      
PROVINCE LINE AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL                 
MOVE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z/FRI. THIS WILL ENSURE CLEAR                
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL IL FRIDAY. BRISK NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS                  
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY OVERNIGHT                
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY.                                                            
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                               
COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY LAST EVENING AND              
WAS NOW CENTERED CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER. STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS                
LAGGING BEHIND A BIT...BUT NOW COVERED THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE                 
CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEXT IN THE SHORTWAVE SERIES                
APPROACHING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.                                             
ISSUES OF THE DAY INCLUDE SKY COVER FOR TODAY...AND THE EFFECTS OF              
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
SHORTWAVE TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN               
FLURRIES FROM THIS FEATURE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE                      
THOUGH...AS INVERSION TIGHTENS AROUND 850 MB. MUCH OF THE DAY                   
EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD LATE                  
AFTERNOON. MORE RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.               
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND                   
SHOULD BE CENTERED IN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE                  
TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHALLENGE TO A               
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS              
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND ANY                
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. DID ADD A              
FEW FLURRIES FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 DURING THE MORNING.                         
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW               
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.                    
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS                  
SUNDAY NIGHT. REMOVED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONVERTED                 
THE AFTERNOON TO SILENT 20 POPS...AS THE AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY                  
INITIALLY AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO GET SUFFICIENTLY                  
MOIST. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EVEN...ESPECIALLY IN                 
THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE AND THICKEN. ONCE                         
PRECIPITATION FORMS DURING THE EVENING...IT SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT              
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF                 
THIS TO BE RAIN. MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND FLURRIES LATER MONDAY                  
THOUGH.                                                                         
CUTOFF LOW TO BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH                    
MIDWEEK. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME                  
RANGE THOUGH.                                                                   
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1155 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 955 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                               
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY AND JUST INCREASED AMOUNT OF                    
SUNSHINE AND WINDS A BIT TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY SSW WINDS               
WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.                           
15Z/9 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR              
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL WI...SE IA AND                    
CENTRAL KS. 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE SE STATES. FAIRLY              
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATE BREEZY SSW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH               
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL. AMPLE SUNSHINE                 
ACROSS IL WITH LOW CLOUDS EAST OVER INDIANA FROM I-65 EAST AND                  
NORTH OVER MN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI. BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER               
SOUTHERN IA INTO CENTRAL IL. TEMPS OVER CENTRAL/SE IL WERE IN THE               
MID TO UPPER 30S. DEWPOINT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SO LOW                    
LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. IL REMAINED IN A QUIET NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW               
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND SW STATES WHILE UPPER LEVEL              
LOW/TROF OVER HUDSON BAY...EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.                      
12Z RUC...NAM AND SREF MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT OVER SE IOWA SE              
THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND SE IL EARLY THIS                   
EVENING. BREEZY SSW WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DECREASE DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FRONT TO PASS THROUGH                
DRY WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND UPPER LEVEL                      
DYNAMICS STAYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO                    
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND FEW               
CU/ALTCU CLOUDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS STAYING EAST OF IL               
OVER INDIANA. LOW CLOUDS OVER MN AND CENTRAL WI TO DROP SOUTHWARD               
TOWARD PEORIA BY MIDNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ELEVATE TO 4 TO 8C THIS                 
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL TODAY FROM 45 TO 50F (COOLEST NE                
OF I-74) WITH LOWER 50S SW OF LINCOLN.                                          
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1155 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                              
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL                
IL TERMINALS. BREEZY SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25                
KTS TURN WNW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAKEN A BIT                 
DURING MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPORARY RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.                 
COLD FRONT IN FAR NW IL NEAR GALESBURG WILL MOVE SE TO THE IL                   
RIVER/PIA BY 20Z AND CMI/DEC 22-23Z. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH               
CENTRAL IL DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS EVENING WITH FEW               
TO SCATTERED 5 TO 9K FT CLOUDS AND BANDS OF CIRRUS. CANOPY OF LOW               
CLOUDS OF 1.5 TO 2K FT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IA AND                  
SOUTHERN WI. 12Z NAM MODEL TIME HEIGHT/RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW                   
THESE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING                 
SOUTH TO PIA BY 05Z AND SPI/DEC BY 08Z AND LINGER THROUGH THU. NW               
WINDS 12 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT AND NNW WINDS 14 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS                 
NEAR 25 KTS THU. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES THU ESPECIALLY THU                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 248 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...               
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                  
CWA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES CREEPING UPWARD AS THE                   
NIGHT AS PROGRESSED. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT TO                
OUR NORTHWEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO                 
NEBRASKA.                                                                       
FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY ARE WITH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH              
THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED DILEMMA OF THE STORM SYSTEM               
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
WARM ADVECTION TO RAMP UP TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS                    
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MODELS IN                  
AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY                  
EARLY EVENING...AND AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT TREND...IT IS EXPECTED               
TO BE A DRY PASSAGE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING LOWER                
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT...A              
TREND NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF                      
MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST               
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT.                                           
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT RESULTING               
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM MODEL BECOMES THE                  
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STILL IN                      
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE              
IT JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS. THIS IMPACTS THE EXPECTED POSITIONING                
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY TOWARD THE MIDWEST. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE BY              
BRINGING THIS FEATURE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY MORNING...              
WHILE ECMWF LAGS A BIT BEHIND IN IOWA AND THE NAM HAS IT STILL                  
BACK IN NEBRASKA. IN ANY EVENT...IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME AS IT                
ENCOUNTERS THE RATHER DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...AND IS ONLY                     
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AT BEST.                        
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
LONGER RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH                 
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ECMWF IS              
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER                    
LEVEL LOW...BUT BOTH HAVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS               
THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. ECMWF IS ALSO THE DRIER OF THE TWO                      
MODELS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT JUST TO               
OUR SOUTH. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE                  
OVERCOME ON SUNDAY FOR ANY DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...             
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CLOUD                     
COVERAGE.                                                                       
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
844 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN IN WARNING.               
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THIS AREA UNDER A STRONG BAND SINCE LATE             
AFTERNOON AND PHONE CALLS INDICATED 3 INCHES HAD FALLEN IN JUST A               
COUPLE HOURS. UPSTREAM REPORTS TO THE NORTH ALSO INDICATED CLOSE TO             
6 INCHES. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME BUT              
SOME GROWING CONCERN FOR NORTHERN ELKHART COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.                 
LATEST RUC13 PAINTS AND INTERESTING PICTURE FOR LAKE BAND EVOLUTION             
TONIGHT. SHORE PARALLEL SINGLE BAND BEGINNING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED             
PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND IS CURRENTLY ALIGNING ITSELF RIGHT                
ALONG EASTERN LAKESHORE NORTH OF BENTON HARBOR. WATER VAPOR SHOWING             
SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS DISRUPTING BANDS              
SLIGHTLY OVER OUR AREA BUT VEERING WINDS BEHIND IT IS HELPING SET UP            
THE SINGLE BAND. WE ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE A STRONG STREAMER                 
CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH SHOULD HELP FUEL THIS BAND                    
OVERNIGHT. RUC13 925MB OMEGA HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH ITS                     
DEPICTION OF A WAVE OF STRONG LIFT MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM                  
SUPERIOR AND PHASING WITH CURRENT DEVELOPING BAND. THUS GOING                   
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR NOW AND MORE INTENSE BANDS EXPECTED AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                                               
OF SOME CONCERN IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. MODEL OMEGA               
FIELDS HAVE BEEN DISPLACED A BIT TOO FAR WEST...WHICH WE HAVE NOTED             
AS A BIAS AT TIMES IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT THE CASE                 
EARLIER THIS WEEK. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE               
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EASTERN BERRIEN AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN               
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH ST. JOSEPH AND WESTERN ELKHART COUNTIES IN                  
INDIANA WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THIS DEVELOPING BAND. THEREFORE              
CASS WAS UPGRADED TO THE WARNING AND WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS FOR               
POSSIBLY UPGRADING ELKHART. SECONDARY BAND COMING ONSHORE INTO                  
SOUTHERN BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES HAS BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT WITH            
ESTIMATED REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.                                             
OUTSIDE OF HEADLINE AREAS...BANDS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND                  
PRODUCING NARROW AND BRIEF BANDS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL. KFWA REPORTED             
HEAVY SNOW FOR A FEW MINUTES AND THIS BAND HAS INTENSIFIED LAST HALF            
HOUR. ADDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN AREAS WITH UP TO AN               
INCH POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY BUT BRIEF NATURE. FURTHER UPDATES MAY             
BE NEEDED AS THIS BAND BECOMES MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC AT KSBN                     
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS IMPACT AT KFWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AT ISSUANCE TIME             
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW CURRENT BANDS NORTH            
OF KSBN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT KSBN THROUGH THE NIGHT. KFWA              
WILL BE ON FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS BAND WITH SOME RESTRICTION                
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW                
PUSHES BAND WEST OF KFWA AND LEAVES BEHIND VFR CIGS. OF A LITTLE                
CONCERN IS 23Z SURFACE OBS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWEST WIND THAN MODEL             
INDICATIONS. TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BE DELAYED BUT WILL BE            
MONITORED. OTHER CONCERN IS EXACT LOCATION OF BAND THROUGH THE                  
NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BE PROLONGED OVER KSBN             
SO CONTINUED WITH 1SM RESTRICTION AT KSBN AND WILL AMEND LOWER AS               
NEEDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS FLOW            
BECOMES WESTERLY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO LOWER INVERSION AND BEGIN             
TO BREAK DOWN LAKE EFFECT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN ITS INFANCY ONGOING ACROSS NW INDIANA AND             
SW MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MAINLY DISORGANIZED MULTIPLE BANDS WITH            
LOW QPF AND LITE SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP IS                 
UNDERWAY AND COMPARISON OF NAM BUFR SOUNDING WITH ASCENT SOUNDING               
FROM 16Z OUT OF KSBN MATCHES UP WELL.  H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C                    
PRODUCING LOW END DELTA-T OF 16 DEG WITH BASICALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL               
WINDS BETWEEN 310-330 DEG AT AROUND 20KT. SOUNDING ALSO CONFIRMS                
SIGNIFICANT COOLING FURTHER ALOFT AT H7 UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS AHEAD OF            
12Z MODEL PROGS HAVING FALLEN TO -20C BY 16Z.  FOLLOWED NAM12 WITH              
FORECAST DETAILS WITH ITS GOOD HANDLE ON VERTICAL PROFILE AND                   
CONSISTENCY WITH 12Z RUN.                                                       
WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS                
EVENING AND PEAKS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE COOLING ALOFT INCREASING DELTA            
T VALUES TO 20C WITH HIGH EQL PEAKING NEAR 15KFT AND EXCELLENT LAKE             
INDUCED CAPE THROUGHOUT THE GROWTH ZONE. NAM12/RUC DEPICTION OF                 
LAKE EFFECT PLUME CONSISTENT WITH PVS RUNS AND WITH INHERITED                   
FORECAST WITH ALL SIGNS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THE FORMATION OF A               
DOMINANT BAND OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIEST IMPACT ALONG NE                           
LAPORTE...BERRIEN...AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES WITH ADVISORY FURTHER                
SOUTH ALONG FCST BEST UVM INTO FULTON COUNTY.                                   
LAKE INDUCED CAPE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE AFTER 12Z AS WARMER AIR STARTS             
TO MOVE IN ALOFT HWVR EQL LEVELS REMAIN AOB LOW END OF GROWTH ZONE              
WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE THROUGH 21Z PER NAM BFR SOUNDINGS.                  
HOWEVER FETCH IS SHARPLY CUT BEYOND 18Z AS LL WINDS BACK TO WNW.                
ACCUMULATING SNOW SLACKENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS AND            
COMES TO AND END ABRUPTLY BEYOND 18Z AS SETUP FALLS APART.                      
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER HIGHS FRIDAY PEAK ONLY NEAR 30.  LOWS                
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW COVER            
THAT CLEAR OUT BEFORE MORNING COULD COOL MORE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD               
INDICATE. SFC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH NOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER AWAY             
AND WITH LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS A POSSIBILITY WILL RIDE GUIDANCE FOR              
LOW TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER TEENS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING A                  
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH                
SURFACE HIGH UNDERNEATH...LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING TO WORK WITH              
SO NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH                
MOVES TO CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE               
PLAINS SETTING UP BRISK SW FLOW FOR OUR AREA. FRONT APPROACHES                  
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. DECENT AMOUNT OF WAA              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. DPROG/DT               
INDICATING GFS FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS WITH OUR AREA BEING              
CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLD. BUFKIT SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING SHALLOW              
1200FT SFC BASED WARM LAYER SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MIX OF RA/SN                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTER FROPA. CYCLONIC NW FLOW               
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LES MONDAY               
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SETTLES INTO TN VALLEY BY                      
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY FCST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT TEMPS              
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AOB NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR             
     INZ003-004.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR            
     INZ005-012-014>016.                                                        
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077 AND              
     MIZ078.                                                                    
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...LASHLEY                                                                
SHORT TERM...LUDINGTON                                                          
LONG TERM...LOGSDON                                                             
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
635 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC AT KSBN                     
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS IMPACT AT KFWA. NORTHWEST FLOW AT ISSUANCE TIME             
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW CURRENT BANDS NORTH            
OF KSBN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT KSBN THROUGH THE NIGHT. KFWA              
WILL BE ON FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS BAND WITH SOME RESTRICTION                
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW                
PUSHES BAND WEST OF KFWA AND LEAVES BEHIND VFR CIGS. OF A LITTLE                
CONCERN IS 23Z SURFACE OBS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWEST WIND THAN MODEL             
INDICATIONS. TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BE DELAYED BUT WILL BE            
MONITORED. OTHER CONCERN IS EXACT LOCATION OF BAND THROUGH THE                  
NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD BE PROLONGED OVER KSBN             
SO CONTINUED WITH 1SM RESTRICTION AT KSBN AND WILL AMEND LOWER AS               
NEEDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS FLOW            
BECOMES WESTERLY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO LOWER INVERSION AND BEGIN             
TO BREAK DOWN LAKE EFFECT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN ITS INFANCY ONGOING ACROSS NW INDIANA AND             
SW MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MAINLY DISORGANIZED MULTIPLE BANDS WITH            
LOW QPF AND LITE SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP IS                 
UNDERWAY AND COMPARISON OF NAM BUFR SOUNDING WITH ASCENT SOUNDING               
FROM 16Z OUT OF KSBN MATCHES UP WELL.  H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C                    
PRODUCING LOW END DELTA-T OF 16 DEG WITH BASICALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL               
WINDS BETWEEN 310-330 DEG AT AROUND 20KT. SOUNDING ALSO CONFIRMS                
SIGNIFICANT COOLING FURTHER ALOFT AT H7 UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS AHEAD OF            
12Z MODEL PROGS HAVING FALLEN TO -20C BY 16Z.  FOLLOWED NAM12 WITH              
FORECAST DETAILS WITH ITS GOOD HANDLE ON VERTICAL PROFILE AND                   
CONSISTENCY WITH 12Z RUN.                                                       
WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS                
EVENING AND PEAKS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE COOLING ALOFT INCREASING DELTA            
T VALUES TO 20C WITH HIGH EQL PEAKING NEAR 15KFT AND EXCELLENT LAKE             
INDUCED CAPE THROUGHOUT THE GROWTH ZONE. NAM12/RUC DEPICTION OF                 
LAKE EFFECT PLUME CONSISTENT WITH PVS RUNS AND WITH INHERITED                   
FORECAST WITH ALL SIGNS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THE FORMATION OF A               
DOMINANT BAND OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIEST IMPACT ALONG NE                           
LAPORTE...BERRIEN...AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES WITH ADVISORY FURTHER                
SOUTH ALONG FCST BEST UVM INTO FULTON COUNTY.                                   
LAKE INDUCED CAPE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE AFTER 12Z AS WARMER AIR STARTS             
TO MOVE IN ALOFT HWVR EQL LEVELS REMAIN AOB LOW END OF GROWTH ZONE              
WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE THROUGH 21Z PER NAM BFR SOUNDINGS.                  
HOWEVER FETCH IS SHARPLY CUT BEYOND 18Z AS LL WINDS BACK TO WNW.                
ACCUMULATING SNOW SLACKENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS AND            
COMES TO AND END ABRUPTLY BEYOND 18Z AS SETUP FALLS APART.                      
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER HIGHS FRIDAY PEAK ONLY NEAR 30.  LOWS                
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW COVER            
THAT CLEAR OUT BEFORE MORNING COULD COOL MORE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD               
INDICATE. SFC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH NOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER AWAY             
AND WITH LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS A POSSIBILITY WILL RIDE GUIDANCE FOR              
LOW TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER TEENS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING A                  
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH                
SURFACE HIGH UNDERNEATH...LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING TO WORK WITH              
SO NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH                
MOVES TO CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE               
PLAINS SETTING UP BRISK SW FLOW FOR OUR AREA. FRONT APPROACHES                  
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. DECENT AMOUNT OF WAA              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. DPROG/DT               
INDICATING GFS FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS WITH OUR AREA BEING              
CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLD. BUFKIT SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING SHALLOW              
1200FT SFC BASED WARM LAYER SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MIX OF RA/SN                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTER FROPA. CYCLONIC NW FLOW               
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LES MONDAY               
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SETTLES INTO TN VALLEY BY                      
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY FCST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT TEMPS              
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AOB NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR             
     INZ003-004.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR            
     INZ005-012-014>016.                                                        
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077.                 
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078.                
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LUDINGTON                                                          
LONG TERM...LOGSDON                                                             
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
358 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN ITS INFANCY ONGOING ACROSS NW INDIANA AND             
SW MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MAINLY DISORGANIZED MULTIPLE BANDS WITH            
LOW QPF AND LITE SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP IS                 
UNDERWAY AND COMPARISON OF NAM BUFR SOUNDING WITH ASCENT SOUNDING FROM 16Z      
OUT OF KSBN MATCHES UP WELL.  H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCING LOW               
END DELTA-T OF 16 DEG WITH BASICALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS BETWEEN               
310-330 DEG AT AROUND 20KT. SOUNDING ALSO CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT COOLING          
FURTHER ALOFT AT H7 UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS AHEAD OF 12Z MODEL PROGS                
HAVING FALLEN TO -20C BY 16Z.  FOLLOWED NAM12 WITH FORECAST DETAILS             
WITH ITS GOOD HANDLE ON VERTICAL PROFILE AND CONSISTENCY WITH 12Z               
RUN.                                                                            
WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS                
EVENING AND PEAKS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE COOLING ALOFT INCREASING DELTA            
T VALUES TO 20C WITH HIGH EQL PEAKING NEAR 15KFT AND EXCELLENT LAKE             
INDUCED CAPE THROUGHOUT THE GROWTH ZONE. NAM12/RUC DEPICTION OF                 
LAKE EFFECT PLUME CONSISTENT WITH PVS RUNS AND WITH INHERITED                   
FORECAST WITH ALL SIGNS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THE FORMATION OF A               
DOMINANT BAND OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIEST IMPACT ALONG NE                           
LAPORTE...BERRIEN...AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES WITH ADVISORY FURTHER                
SOUTH ALONG FCST BEST UVM INTO FULTON COUNTY.                                   
LAKE INDUCED CAPE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE AFTER 12Z AS WARMER AIR STARTS             
TO MOVE IN ALOFT HWVR EQL LEVELS REMAIN AOB LOW END OF GROWTH ZONE              
WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE THROUGH 21Z PER NAM BFR SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER          
FETCH IS SHARPLY CUT BEYOND 18Z AS LL WINDS BACK TO WNW. ACCUMULATING           
SNOW SLACKENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS AND COMES TO                
AND END ABRUPTLY BEYOND 18Z AS SETUP FALLS APART.                               
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER HIGHS FRIDAY PEAK ONLY NEAR 30.  LOWS                
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW COVER            
THAT CLEAR OUT BEFORE MORNING COULD COOL MORE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD               
INDICATE. SFC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH NOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER AWAY             
AND WITH LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS A POSSIBILITY WILL RIDE GUIDANCE FOR              
LOW TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER TEENS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING A                  
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH                
SURFACE HIGH UNDERNEATH...LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING TO WORK WITH              
SO NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH                
MOVES TO CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE               
PLAINS SETTING UP BRISK SW FLOW FOR OUR AREA. FRONT APPROACHES                  
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. DECENT AMOUNT OF WAA              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. DPROG/DT               
INDICATING GFS FAIRLY CONSISENT PAST FEW RUNS WITH OUR AREA BEING               
CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLD. BUFKIT SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING SHALLOW              
1200FT SFC BASED WARM LAYER SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MIX OF RA/SN                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTER FROPA. CYCLONIC NW FLOW               
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LES MONDAY               
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SETTLES INTO TN VALLEY BY                      
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY FCST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT TEMPS              
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AOB NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THIS                
AFTN...TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORE PARALLEL SINGLE BAND TONIGHT. AT              
FWA...EXPECT MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SHSN THROUGH             
03/04Z THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED            
BY MIDNIGHT AS DRY LL AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING SECONDARY               
TROUGH...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF A SINGLE BAND THAT SHOULD        
SET UP WELL WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AT SBN...SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG                  
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACTIVITY INCREASES IN             
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTN...AS APPROACHING SECONDARY WAVE ALLOWS             
FOR INCRG SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FOR DEEPER                    
CONVECTIVE CELLS. INTENSE SINGLE BAND LIKELY TO SET UP TONIGHT                  
OVER/NEAR SBN BTW 00Z AND 03Z. EXACT LOCATION OF NARROW BAND OF                 
HVY SN/LIFR CONDITIONS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH PROGGED              
925-850MB FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR SBN TO END UP WITHIN THIS BAND FOR              
SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW IFR FCST AT SBN TONIGHT AND               
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT SBN                  
FRIDAY MORNING PER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHRTWV TROUGH AND BACKING LL               
FLOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR             
     INZ003-004.                                                                
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR            
     INZ005-012-014>016.                                                        
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077.                 
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078.                
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LUDINGTON                                                          
LONG TERM...LOGSDON                                                             
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL                                                           
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
635 AM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTO/STRATO CU DECK OVER MI/WI/IN/IL HAS BEEN EXPANDING THIS                    
MORNING IN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS RH                  
FIELDS NOT HANDLING THESE CLOUDS WELL. BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS              
AND EWD EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE...EXPECT THIS DECK WILL REMAIN               
OVER NRN INDIANA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CIGS GRDLY LOWERING AS LOW                
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GRTLKS STRENGTHENS AS A LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW LEVEL CAA SHOULD                  
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BEHIND CDFNT TNGT WITH SOME LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT SBN. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD              
LIMIT INTENSITY OF THIS PRECIP OVERNIGHT SO KEPT VSBYS VFR.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EST WED NOV 19 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS              
TODAY/TNGT. SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE MEAGER ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS                  
SYSTEM... SO WAA PRECIP AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL STAY NORTH OF THE                 
CWA...HWVR... SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERABLE                 
MID/HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM WHICH SHOULD CONT TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA               
TODAY. BASED ON LIMITED SUNSHINE AND RATHER COOL START ESPECIALLY               
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CWA...CONTD WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS                   
WHICH ARE GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO COOLEST MOS FOR TODAY.                   
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF            
LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO DVLP... SO LEFT                 
GOING POPS IN TACT. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THU MORNING. AS USUAL IN THESE                   
SITUATIONS NAM IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST IN LOW LEVELS THAN GFS.               
GIVEN THE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM... EXPECT IT TO OUTPERFORM               
THE GFS FOR THIS EVENT AND IT DOES APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LAKE               
AGGREGATE TROUGHING BETTER DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE LEANED                 
TOWARD IT`S SOLUTION WHICH CONTS TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY INCREASES TO               
>1000J/KG WITH WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS >15KFT. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS             
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 320-340DEG THU-THU NGT AND WITH SUPPORT OF                   
925MB UVM FIELDS AND NAM QPF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW                  
OVER BERRIEN/CASS IN SW MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE...NW ELKHART...AND NE              
LAPORTE COUNTIES IN NRN INDIANA...THUS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
WATCH FOR THIS AREA BEGINNING THU MORNING AND CONTG INTO THE LONG               
TERM PD.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER LAKE EVENT SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE                
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF INDICATE                
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE LAST EVENT WITH DELTA T                  
VALUES REACHING 20 TO 25. IT LOOKS LIKE THE KEY FACTOR IN LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY WILL BE THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT            
300 TO 310 DEGREES SO FETCH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
BUT NOT OPTIMAL. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE LAKE FROM              
WISCONSIN WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECONDITIONING...SO THESE SHOULD LIMIT            
HIGH END SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO...WINDS WILL START BACKING DURING THE               
DAY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SO               
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN             
THE ABOVE...WENT WITH BASICALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM BERRIEN              
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO CASS AND ELKHART FRIDAY. OTHER THAN FLURRIES              
FRIDAY EVENING...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.                     
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE               
GIVEN MORE OF A DRY SLOT TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED               
MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER                
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER               
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST ANALOG                  
SIGNALS SHOWING A VERY LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...KEPT A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW           
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM EST WED NOV 19 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN ND WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS                 
EVENING WITH TRAILING CDFNT CROSSING NRN INDIANA WITH FROPA AT SBN              
AROUND 02Z AND FWA 05Z. AS FRONT APPROACHES TODAY...WARM/MOIST                  
ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO VFR CIGS                
WITH MVFR MOVG IN BEHIND THE FRONT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY                
     EVENING FOR INZ003>005.                                                    
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY                
     EVENING FOR MIZ077-078.                                                    
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR               
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                    
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
225 PM CDT THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS REGION ATTIM ACCOMPANIED              
BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND FEW FLURRIES. CLOUDS MORE                        
CELLULAR ON BACK EDGE OF MAIN STRATUS SHIELD DUE TO                             
DESTABILIZATION WITH SOLAR INSOLATION/HEATING AND COLD AIR WITH                 
SEVERAL ROLLS OF STRATOCU ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE PRODUCING FEW                  
LIGHT SHSN WITH KDVN WSR-88D EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE PICKING                      
UP 20-25 DBZ RETURNS WITHIN THESE BANDS. MEANWHILE... SUBSIDENCE IN             
THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS PROVIDING FOR CLEARING SKIES                
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL MN...NORTHERN AND WESTERN                   
IA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER MID LEVEL            
SHORTWAVE DIVING S/SE TOWARD ARROWHEAD OF MN AT 18Z. THIS WAS                   
ASSISTING CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN           
WI AND U.P. OF MI. LARGE... COLD 1048+ MB CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED                
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT 18Z PROVIDING A WINTER CHILL AS TEMPS                 
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PLAINS AND MIDWEST. SOME AREAS                 
STILL IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EARLY THIS AFTN FROM ND INTO MN WITH           
SNOW COVER AND/OR CLOUDS. BRISK/BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING                
TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES ADDING TO WINTER CHILL... WITH WIND CHILLS            
IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES AT TIMES OVER CWA.    ..M^2..                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                             
TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING PERIOD AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH          
SETTLES OVER REGION AND EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EAST BY FRI AFTN.             
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HOW COLD TO GO ON LOWS TONIGHT. MIN TEMP FCST            
ACTUALLY BECOMING A BIT MORE CHALLENGING THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...              
MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS AND WINDS. INITIAL CLEARING TO SWEEP ACROSS          
AREA BY EARLY EVE... BUT WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF              
MN/WI AHEAD OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH ARROWHEAD OF MN         
ATTIM. EARLY THINKING WAS INCOMING SUBSIDENCE AND LARGELY CELLULAR              
NATURE OF CLOUDS WOULD RESULT IN THINNING AS THEY ADVANCE S/SE                  
TNGT...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATL SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING MORE INTO STRATUS         
WHICH HAS BETTER CHC OF HOLDING TOGETHER AND PROPAGATING ACROSS PORTIONS        
OF THE AREA TNGT. THIS IS DEPICTED WITH LATEST RUC AND 18Z NAM LOW LEVEL        
RH PROGS. WILL TAKE LATE LAST MINUTE LOOK TO DECIDE ON HOW TO HANDLE            
CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS CERTAINLY WOULD BE WELCOMED ... ACTING AS BLANKET TO         
HOLD IN WHAT LITTLE HEATING TODAY. ALSO... WINDS LOOK TO BE SLOW                
TO DROP-OFF WITH GRADIENT KEEPING SOME GUSTS AROUND THIS EVE. THE               
COMBINATION OF ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS WOULD SERVE TO HELP AND PREVENT TEMPS       
FROM REALLY PLUMMETING. ACTUALLY SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR BIG             
TEMP DROP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SUGGESTIONS OF CLEARING BY 12Z AT THE SAME         
TIME WINDS DECOUPLING WITH RIDGE NEARING. BANKING ON THIS TO KEEP MINS          
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND NEAR COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FAIRLY            
SIMILAR SETUP TO TUE MORNING WITH STRENGTH/LOCATION OF HIGH WHICH YIELDED       
LOWS MAINLY IN RANGE OF 11-18 DEGS... WITH FEW URBAN AREAS AROUND 20 DEGS       
WITH HEAT ISLAND. SFC HIGH PROGGED TO BE A BIT STRONGER... WHICH WOULD          
SUPPORT TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGITS NORTH/WEST.      
SFC RIDGE AXIS TO PASS ACROSS AREA DURING DAY ON FRI WITH WINDS BACKING TO      
S/SW IN THE AFTN... AND SOME WARMING ALOFT... BUT LIMITED MIXING TO             
KEEP US FROM REALIZING MUCH OF THIS WARMING AND STAYED NEAR COLDER SIDE         
OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXES... ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY COLD START.    ..M^2..           
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...                              
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING STAND TO SEE A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING        
LIGHT SNOW...DUE TO RESPECTABLE FORCING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS              
A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA AND DAMPENS WITHIN THE           
OVER ALL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE                 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THIS COLD AIRMASS...HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS              
VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE FORCING.  THUS...SIGNIFICANT                
EVAPORATION IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE SNOW BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO           
NOT ACCUMULATE.  STILL WITH THE  FORCING IN PLACE...OUR CHANCE POPS SEEM        
ON TARGET...WITH THE BEST THREAT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST                
OF WASHINGTON...TO THE MUSCATINE. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A DUSTING TO A HALF         
INCH.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH         
STEADY TEMPS OR SLIGHT RISES AFTERWORDS AS CLOUDS BECOME OPAQUE FROM            
WEST TO EAST.  THESE SAME CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN SATURDAYS HIGHS FROM          
THERE POTENTIAL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH ONLY HIGHS                 
OF MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST EXPECTED.                             
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE               
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...RESULTING IN ONE MILD DAY NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.        
HOWEVER...WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...IT SHOULD NOT FEEL         
OVERLY NICE THIS WEEKEND.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...             
LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE WRUNG OUT OVER THE AREA THROUGH LIGHT SNOW              
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD TEMPS ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND              
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD DUMP OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY         
LOW PASSAGE.                                                                    
IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN PREFERRED BY HPC THE              
PAST WEEK...AND IT WILL BE FAVORED AGAIN TODAY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS             
GREAT UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE OVER ALL SYNOPTIC FLOW              
FORECAST CONTINUITY POOR...EVEN WITHIN THE ECMWF RUNS. IN                       
GENERAL...MODERATION TO NEAR NORMAL IS FORECAST.      ..ERVIN..                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ABOUT CLEARING       
LATE AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH         
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS                
TO TERMINALS THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... WITH CIGS           
MAINLY VFR THOUGH CANT RULE OUT PERIOD OF MVFR WITH SCT FLURRIES.               
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS             
INTO THE AREA. WINDS TO BACK TO WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AT OR JUST                  
BEYOND 18Z FRI WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS THE SFC HIGH            
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.              ..M^2..                                    
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
M^2/ERVIN                                                                       
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1130 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
...UPDATED FOR FORECAST AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK HOLDING TOGETHER...AND SEEPING SOUTHWARD INTO            
THE NORTHERN CWA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NAM/RUC LOW LEVEL RH                  
FIELDS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PLACEMENT/TIMING AND THUS HAVE             
STRATUS DECK MAKING IT TO CENTRAL CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY              
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL             
HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WITH THE            
LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD AND STRONG CAA EXPECT STEADY TO FALLING             
TEMPERATURES BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD             
OF THE CWA...SO MADE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP FIELD AS               
WELL.                                                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT/                                         
SURFACE LOW SWINGING ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL             
BRING A COLD FRONT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS IOWA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL              
CROSS MOST OF OUR CWA BY NOON AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN EARLY                    
AFTERNOON. WITH NNW WIND SURGE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FROPA...AS            
WELL AS SLIGHTLY DELAYED CAA...BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFICULTY IS                   
PROGGING MAX TEMPS. OBVIOUSLY WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH WHERE                
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY LOWEST AND LEAST HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO             
EARLIER FROPA.  NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS DRY AIR IS                 
FIRMLY IN PLACE.                                                                
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN                    
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH                  
THU...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.  VORT               
LOBE SWINGS THROUGH LATE THU AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES                    
ENTRENCHED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.  AIRMASS REMAINS MIXED INTO                  
THURSDAY AFTER CFP TONIGHT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE              
MINS AND MAXES.  NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THIS RESULTS             
IN GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND NEAR COMPROMISE THU.  MIXING                
DOES NOT REALLY SUBSIDE UNTIL FRI SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE THU               
NIGHT WITH MIXING SEEMING TO KEEP TEMPS UP AND RADIATIONAL COOLING              
DOWN.  LITTLE DECOUPLING NOTED THU NIGHT EITHER SO LOWS REMAIN ABOVE            
EVEN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF KEST AND NISHNABOTNA VALLEY                
AREAS CLOSER TO RIDGE.                                                          
MUCH LIKE PROGGED YESTERDAY...SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF GULF AK LOW              
LATER TODAY REACHING MO VALLEY LATE FRI.  00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS               
HAVE APPARENTLY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE            
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF MORE SO.  NAM IS AN OUTLIER TO THE             
SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED.  BUCKING GFS/ECMWF                     
AGREEMENT IN FAVOR OF THE NAM IN LATER PERIODS IS RARELY THE WAY TO             
GO.  THIS FAVORED SCENARIO RESULTS IN FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF                      
COINCIDENT KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH NOTED FN                    
RESPONSE.  GFS COBB DATA DEPICTS TYPICAL 13:1 RATIOS WITH THE EVENT             
AND COULD RESULT IN 1-2 INCHES OVER NRN AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL IA            
SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS WELL INTO CHANCE CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY NWRN                
SECTIONS BEFORE FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM HEADS SE.                    
ALTHOUGH TEMPING...DID NOT WANT TO GO WITH LIKELY WORDING QUITE                 
YET.  THAT WOULD BE A BIG CHANGE FROM OUR CURRENT FORECAST...AND GFS            
MOS AS WELL AS SREF/GEFS PRECIP PROBS HAVE YET TO RESPOND TOO MUCH              
AND ONLY SUGGEST LOW END CHANCES FOR NOW.  ALTHOUGH TRANSIENT NATURE            
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...DECENT              
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW STATIC STABILITIES ABOVE H7 ON THE SRN               
FRINGE COULD PRODUCE SHORT LIVED BUT MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWS AND LOW               
VSBYS.  DENDRITIC LAYER UVM ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHER POPS MAY HAVE TO BE            
PULLED SWD IF TRENDS CONTINUE...BUT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DRIER LOW               
LEVELS WHICH COULD REDUCE ITS EFFECTIVENESS.                                    
.LONG TERM.../SAT THROUGH TUE/                                                  
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD WITH GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD DEEPER             
ECMWF SOLUTION.  SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT             
WITH CLOSED LOW APPEARING TO BE PASSING TO OUR NORTH IA SHOULD NOT              
SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.  BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT WORDING SUN            
AND SWITCHED PRECIP MORE TOWARD SNOW OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL SECTIONS                
MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...19/12Z                                                              
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH GUSTY               
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES                 
SITUATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA               
TODAY. EXPECT GUSTINESS AT BOTH KDSM AND KOTM BY MID/LATE                       
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES REMAINING ABOVE THE 12KT THRESHOLD                   
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONCERNS STILL ON PROGRESSION OF LOW                  
STRATUS DECK...BUT HAVE TRIED TO TIME TO LATEST MODEL SUITE                     
SUGGESTING THAT THE STATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR                
CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR CIGS BY            
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JWL/BSS/MJA                                                                     
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
927 PM MST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES                 
TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.                      
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.                                                     
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM MST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AN                
EYE OF CONCERN LOOKING FOREWARD TO NEXT THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING                 
DAY...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW THAT MOVE ACROSS THE                 
TRI-STATE REGION.                                                               
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS IN A PROGRESSIVE MODE WITH FOUR DISCRETE              
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE MID                
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THAT WILL KEEP               
THE UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A                 
LEE SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY IN PLACE NEAR THE EASTERN COLORADO                 
BORDER. THE LEE TROUGH WILL VACILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE                 
REGION AS A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE                
REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND               
TUESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION                   
THROUGH THAT TIME...AS A RESULT...WILL REMAIN BENIGN WITH DRY                   
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS               
TIME OF YEAR.                                                                   
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...A STRONGER UPPER                  
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A LOW CENTER                  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON               
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING                 
DAY. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN...THERE WILL NOT                
BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN WAVES TO SET UP A GOOD NEAR SURFACE                      
MOISTURE RETURN PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH                    
PLAINS...SO THE TRI-STATE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON                   
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS...BAND OF STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS                
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BRIEFLY REPORTED            
AT KITR. RUC INDICATES THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WEST OF                   
KGLD...BUT WILL INDICATE A FEW HOURS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 2500              
FEET BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR              
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME             
SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI.              
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS STRATUS UPSTREAM. RUC AND NAM FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS PROG CIGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET. NOTED THE SOUTHERN              
EDGE OF THE STRATUS WAS MAKING SLOWER PROGRESS SOUTH ON LATEST                  
SATELLITE. THOUGH DO NOT SEE WHY IT WOULD NOT HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE            
INTO THE TERMINALS. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO THE                
TIMING OF THE NAM SOUNDINGS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.                   
WOLTERS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../354 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                                 
THE 19Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE 12Z UPPER AIR              
MAPS SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH DOWN               
STREAM UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A DEEP TROUGH WAS MOVING              
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA            
WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND                 
UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES.               
THE 19Z SURFACE MAPS SHOWED THE SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM                   
NORTHWEST OK...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...GENERALLY ALONG THE KS                
TURNPIKE...NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO. TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY                  
BEHIND TO FRONT WERE ACTUALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE COLD AIR             
WAS LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NE.                            
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE 5H TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA                  
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE            
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES ON THU. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL BUILD A               
1044MB SFC RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. WINDS ABOVE THE            
SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH 45KT NORTH WINDS AT             
850MB. WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS                      
SOUTH...THOUGH WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE AFTER 14Z ONCE TH MIXED              
BL INCREASES. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS              
OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY             
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AN AREA OF STRATUS OVC                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM NORTHERN NE NORTHWARD TO THE                    
CANADIAN BORDER. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF BKN STRATUS               
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE             
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...THOUGH WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME               
SCT STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER                            
SUNRISE...THOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN AREAS OF STRATUS THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THE                
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON THU WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS ONLY THE 20S AND            
30S.                                                                            
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CWA IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH            
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR AS WINDS DIMINISH AS THE            
CENTER OF THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVES INTO THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH              
THE WINDS DROPPING OFF...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR OVERSPREADING             
THE CWA...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE            
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. THEREFORE LOWERED PREVIOUS LOWS BY SEVERAL               
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPS WILL BE A                 
CHALLENGE AS THE DAYS STARTS OFF COLD AND DEGREE OF MIXING ON THE               
BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN QUESTION. THE             
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO                      
EXPERIENCE WAA AND STRONGER MIXING BY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MUCH                
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE VEERED LLVL FLOW AND RESULTANT WAA THAN THE            
NAM. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S FAR                  
NORTHEAST CORNER TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL                
AREAS. STRONGER WAA WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER                  
SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS               
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWS OCCURING IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE                      
NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH STRONG WAA OVERNIGHT. WILL LIMIT DIURNAL DROP             
TO ONLY AROUND 10 DEGREES MOST AREAS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW               
AND MID LEVEL HOLDING FIRM AND THE STRONGEST FORCING NORTH OF THE               
CWA...WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW AND ONLY INCREASE CLOUDS SOME                  
ACROSS THE NORTH.                                                               
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN              
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST                
FLOW PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. WHAT LIMITED                  
MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS...WILL PRIMARILY GET PUSHED MORE TO THE                
EAST OF THE CWA SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN CWA...AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO BE REMOVE IN                 
LATER FCSTS. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY...WILL KEEP               
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS...THEN MAINLY 45 TO 50 FOR MONDAY             
BEHIND THE FRONT. LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLN BY MID WEEK                   
WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH MODERATING            
TEMPS BENEATH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. HAVE PUSHED HIGHS BY             
WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS AND KEPT THE FCST             
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES.                               
12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM ALONG         
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR WASHINGTON STATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES          
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING         
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH         
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAD PUSHED A WIND SHIFT         
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED       
WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE...WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA      
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRATUS DECK MOVING          
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.                         
THE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH            
THE STRATUS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE               
WHAT THE AREAL EXTENT WILL BE AS IT CURRENTLY IS NOT REAL EXTENSIVE             
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK THAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED                 
WITH SOME MECHANICAL COOLING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS WILL RESULT IN                
IT COVERING AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY              
IF NOT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE LOW CLOUDINESS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT              
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED LAYER              
AROUND 6-8 KFT DURING THE DAY. UVV WILL BE INCREASING AS THE UPPER              
JET SAGS SOUTH AND THE CWA COMES UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION                
SO FEEL THAT BROKEN LAYERS OF CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE MODELS                 
SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS BUT KEEP IT BACKED UP AGAINST THE               
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.                    
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING            
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH          
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES              
SHOULD BE CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S OR ABOVE IN THE WESTERN CWA BUT             
WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY             
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY AND... WITH THE FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE          
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST...MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY SPEEDS.                
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CALLING FOR WEST TO              
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.  THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD                      
RE-DEVELOP BY SATURDAY, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A FAIRLY WARM            
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE              
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN               
THE MODELS ON STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP               
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH            
THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS.  HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON                
WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NORTHERN            
CWA COOLER IN THE LOWER 50S WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER READINGS IN THE                
SOUTH.  DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE            
TRUE COLD AIR ARRIVING MONDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN.  AGAIN, THERE ARE                
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR GETS INTO THE CWA, WITH THE ECMWF              
DROPPING 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO WHILE THE GFS HAS US IN THE LOWER               
SINGLE DIGITS C.  IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS,             
BUT ESRL RE-FORECAST AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER                
SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, BUT              
FULLY EXPECT TO ADJUST AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.  TEMPS SHOULD WARM A            
BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND THE RIDGE                 
STARTS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                                                 
MODEL CONSENSUS STARTS DOWNHILL AFTER DAY 6, WITH THE NEXT                      
SIGNIFICANT WAVE COMING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND OUT TOWARDS THE                 
PLAINS.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND EVEN THE             
ENSEMBLE MEANS, BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY             
NEXT THURSDAY.  DPROG/DT HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT, BUT IT DOES              
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE                    
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AROUND DAYS 8-10.  EVEN WITH THE VARIATIONS ON               
TIMING, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW US PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE            
OF NEXT WEEK, THEN BECOMING MORE WET INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  WILL            
KEEP THE GRIDS DRY FOR NOW, BUT PUT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP IN FOR THE              
WEEK TWO FORECAST.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND                  
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL            
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS OR SO.  RUC HAS LOW CEILINGS               
TOWARDS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH SATURATION             
AT LOWER LEVELS.  STRATUS IS EVIDENT IN NORTHERN NEB, WHICH COULD               
START COMING DOWN INTO THE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.  WITH UPSLOPE, THINK            
THAT THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE TAF                  
SITES, BUT KGCK COULD GET DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS.  WILL HAVE TO                
KEEP AN EYE ON TAF SITES AS ALL LOCATIONS GOING DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR             
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  29  41  23  50 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  28  40  23  52 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  31  40  25  55 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  30  41  25  54 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  28  39  21  48 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28  33  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/26                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1229 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A              
COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...JUST TO THE NW OF           
THE OH RIVER ATTM. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS INCREASING SLOWLY            
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH LIES NEAR THE KY/WV           
BORDER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE SW OF THIS              
BOUNDARY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE GENERALLY                  
CONFINED TO THE RIDGETOPS...WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS APPEAR TO HAVE               
DEWPOINTS NEAR 20 BASED ON SFC OBS/MESONET. UPSTREAM...LOW CLOUDS               
WERE OVER OH AND ARE NEARING THE OH RIVER...WHILE AN EXTENSIVE AREA             
OF CLEAR SKIES WAS OVER MUCH OF KY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MO...IL AND            
IN...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER                        
IA...NORTHERN IL AND NORTHERN MO.                                               
BASED ON MODEL FORECASTS OF RH BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB AS WELL AS                
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS...OPTED TO INCREASE CLOUDS FOR             
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z. THE NAM AND RUC ARE           
MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE GFS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT                    
HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH SKY COVER ON THU. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT              
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF FROPA...SKIES WILL BE AT LEAST                
BROKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE          
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE EXPERIENCED TEMPS             
FALLING OFF QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE...WITH TEMP FALL IN THOSE AREAS STOPPING               
AROUND 9Z OR ABOUT THE TIME CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT DID NOT CHANGE THE            
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY STILL APPEARED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...NO                
ADDITIONAL CHANGES.                                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                                  
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER KY TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH            
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ADVECT A MEAGER AMOUNT            
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS            
GENERATES LOW CLOUDS FROM IT OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WRF IS NOT QUITE             
AS MOIST. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WRF...THINKING THAT IF CLOUDS           
DO DEVELOP...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEAR DAWN...LEAVING TONIGHT MAINLY            
CLEAR. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE WRF ALLOWS MORE WARMING ON THURSDAY THAN          
THE GFS. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT DUE TO ITS ABILITY TO BETTER                 
HANDLE THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN ON THE FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS.              
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE MIXING               
LAYER WILL DEEPEN...PROMOTING CU DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH            
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLURRIES AND SNOW               
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THIS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN           
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                      
ANY REMAINING SNOW WILL END ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TRAJECTORY OFF OF             
LAKE MICHIGAN END. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE                
COULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A           
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE WRF AND GFS DIFFER ON TIMING OF             
THIS. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL               
RUN...SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                       
WILL LOOK FOR NOTABLE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE                       
TONIGHT...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR             
ADVECTION WILL SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH            
SEPARATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                   
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH              
REGARD TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GENERAL            
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS TRAILING COLD IS TO MOVE THE BOUNDARY ACROSS             
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT            
ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIX              
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL AROUND 8 OR 9Z MONDAY                       
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z ON              
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST                 
VIRGINIA BORDERS WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS                   
EXPECTED OVERALL...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHEST            
RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. ALSO DECIDED            
TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY                          
AFTERNOON...AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET              
INTERACTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE 12Z            
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING             
RAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WAS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE            
6Z RUNS AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS...WILL                
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP FOR NOW...INSTEAD GOING                
WITH SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED                 
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WITH A TYPICAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SETTING UP.                          
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE                     
WEEKEND...DECIDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT AS WELL. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. SKY               
COVER FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WAS LEFT ESSENTIALLY THE            
SAME AS BEFORE...WITH THE PRIMARY LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR ALL THREE               
DAYS.                                                                           
THE MODEL DATA SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND            
SUNDAY THAN THE MOS DATA REFLECTS...SO WENT A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS              
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND                  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS DUE TO THE                 
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS                
WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES              
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY ON EACH NIGHT THAT HAS LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.             
THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED HERE...SO WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HPC            
MOS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                  
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED SLIGHTLY. THE DEWPOINTS                   
APPEARED TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND            
THE LAST TWO RUNS OF MEXMOS...AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS WERE                     
DECREASED A BIT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.               
WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MINOR CHANGES              
MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE TO WESTERN KENTUCKY               
INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE TAFS SITES AROUND 10-11Z.            
TAMDAR AND MODEL DATA INDICATE LLWS WITH WINDS 270 AT 35KT AT 1500              
FT. THE LLWS WILL END AFTER AROUND FROPA. EXPECTING STRATOCU AROUND             
AT 4-5 KFT IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS DEVELOPING AT JKL AND              
LOZ. EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH                   
CONTINUED BKN STRATOCU. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD           
AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND A MOISTURE CONNECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES BRING A           
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAL/JP                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1019 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A              
COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...JUST TO THE NW OF           
THE OH RIVER ATTM. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS INCREASING SLOWLY            
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH LIES NEAR THE KY/WV           
BORDER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE SW OF THIS              
BOUNDARY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE GENERALLY                  
CONFINED TO THE RIDGETOPS...WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS APPEAR TO HAVE               
DEWPOINTS NEAR 20 BASED ON SFC OBS/MESONET. UPSTREAM...LOW CLOUDS               
WERE OVER OH AND ARE NEARING THE OH RIVER...WHILE AN EXTENSIVE AREA             
OF CLEAR SKIES WAS OVER MUCH OF KY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MO...IL AND            
IN...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER                        
IA...NORTHERN IL AND NORTHERN MO.                                               
BASED ON MODEL FORECASTS OF RH BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB AS WELL AS                
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS...OPTED TO INCREASE CLOUDS FOR             
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z. THE NAM AND RUC ARE           
MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE GFS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT                    
HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH SKY COVER ON THU. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT              
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF FROPA...SKIES WILL BE AT LEAST                
BROKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE          
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE EXPERIENCED TEMPS             
FALLING OFF QUICKER THAN FORECAST...SO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE...WITH TEMP FALL IN THOSE AREAS STOPPING               
AROUND 9Z OR ABOUT THE TIME CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT DID NOT CHANGE THE            
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY STILL APPEARED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...NO                
ADDITIONAL CHANGES.                                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                                  
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER KY TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH            
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ADVECT A MEAGER AMOUNT            
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS            
GENERATES LOW CLOUDS FROM IT OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WRF IS NOT QUITE             
AS MOIST. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WRF...THINKING THAT IF CLOUDS           
DO DEVELOP...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEAR DAWN...LEAVING TONIGHT MAINLY            
CLEAR. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE WRF ALLOWS MORE WARMING ON THURSDAY THAN          
THE GFS. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT DUE TO ITS ABILITY TO BETTER                 
HANDLE THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN ON THE FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS.              
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE MIXING               
LAYER WILL DEEPEN...PROMOTING CU DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH            
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLURRIES AND SNOW               
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THIS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN           
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                      
ANY REMAINING SNOW WILL END ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TRAJECTORY OFF OF             
LAKE MICHIGAN END. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE                
COULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A           
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE WRF AND GFS DIFFER ON TIMING OF             
THIS. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL               
RUN...SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                       
WILL LOOK FOR NOTABLE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE                       
TONIGHT...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR             
ADVECTION WILL SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH            
SEPARATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                   
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH              
REGARD TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GENERAL            
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS TRAILING COLD IS TO MOVE THE BOUNDARY ACROSS             
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT            
ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIX              
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL AROUND 8 OR 9Z MONDAY                       
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z ON              
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST                 
VIRGINIA BORDERS WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS                   
EXPECTED OVERALL...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHEST            
RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. ALSO DECIDED            
TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY                          
AFTERNOON...AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET              
INTERACTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE 12Z            
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING             
RAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WAS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE            
6Z RUNS AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS...WILL                
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP FOR NOW...INSTEAD GOING                
WITH SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED                 
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WITH A TYPICAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SETTING UP.                          
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE                     
WEEKEND...DECIDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT AS WELL. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. SKY               
COVER FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WAS LEFT ESSENTIALLY THE            
SAME AS BEFORE...WITH THE PRIMARY LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR ALL THREE               
DAYS.                                                                           
THE MODEL DATA SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND            
SUNDAY THAN THE MOS DATA REFLECTS...SO WENT A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS              
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND                  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS DUE TO THE                 
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS                
WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES              
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY ON EACH NIGHT THAT HAS LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.             
THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED HERE...SO WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HPC            
MOS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                  
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED SLIGHTLY. THE DEWPOINTS                   
APPEARED TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND            
THE LAST TWO RUNS OF MEXMOS...AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS WERE                     
DECREASED A BIT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.               
WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MINOR CHANGES              
MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE              
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN            
THE PERIOD AND THEN INTO THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE            
ARE NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SOME            
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS DATA BOTH INDICATE SOME               
SATURATION IN THE MVFR RANGE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE OF              
HOURS AROUND 9Z AS WELL AS IN THE MID CLOUD RANGE. STAYED CLOSE TO              
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THIS...THOUGH SHORTENED THE LENGTH OF              
MVFR TO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS CENTERED AROUND 9Z...MORE IN LINE WITH THE           
DRIER NAM AND RUC. LOW LEVEL DRYING SHOULD THEN OCCUR AS THE SFC HIGH           
BUILDS IN...THOUGH SOME STRATOCU AND CU SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE END            
OF THE PERIOD JUST BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS WILL ALSO              
SHIFT TO NW TO NWW BY 16Z BEHIND THE FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAL/JP                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
732 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                    
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER KY TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH            
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ADVECT A MEAGER AMOUNT            
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS            
GENERATES LOW CLOUDS FROM IT OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WRF IS NOT QUITE             
AS MOIST. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE WRF...THINKING THAT IF CLOUDS           
DO DEVELOP...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEAR DAWN...LEAVING TONIGHT MAINLY            
CLEAR. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE WRF ALLOWS MORE WARMING ON THURSDAY THAN          
THE GFS. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT DUE TO ITS ABILITY TO BETTER                 
HANDLE THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN ON THE FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS.              
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE MIXING               
LAYER WILL DEEPEN...PROMOTING CU DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH            
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLURRIES AND SNOW               
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THIS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN           
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                      
ANY REMAINING SNOW WILL END ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TRAJECTORY OFF OF             
LAKE MICHIGAN END. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE                
COULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM A           
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE WRF AND GFS DIFFER ON TIMING OF             
THIS. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL               
RUN...SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                       
WILL LOOK FOR NOTABLE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE                       
TONIGHT...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR             
ADVECTION WILL SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH            
SEPARATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                   
.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/                                       
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH              
REGARD TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT               
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GENERAL            
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS TRAILING COLD IS TO MOVE THE BOUNDARY ACROSS             
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT            
ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIX              
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL AROUND 8 OR 9Z MONDAY                       
NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z ON              
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST                 
VIRGINIA BORDERS WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS                   
EXPECTED OVERALL...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHEST            
RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. ALSO DECIDED            
TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY                          
AFTERNOON...AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET              
INTERACTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE 12Z            
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING             
RAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WAS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE            
6Z RUNS AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS...WILL                
HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP FOR NOW...INSTEAD GOING                
WITH SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED                 
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WITH A TYPICAL UPSLOPE PATTERN SETTING UP.                          
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE                     
WEEKEND...DECIDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT AS WELL. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. SKY               
COVER FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WAS LEFT ESSENTIALLY THE            
SAME AS BEFORE...WITH THE PRIMARY LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR ALL THREE               
DAYS.                                                                           
THE MODEL DATA SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND            
SUNDAY THAN THE MOS DATA REFLECTS...SO WENT A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS              
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND                  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS DUE TO THE                 
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS                
WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES              
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY ON EACH NIGHT THAT HAS LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.             
THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED HERE...SO WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HPC            
MOS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                  
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED SLIGHTLY. THE DEWPOINTS                   
APPEARED TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND            
THE LAST TWO RUNS OF MEXMOS...AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS WERE                     
DECREASED A BIT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.               
WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MINOR CHANGES              
MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED                                              
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE              
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN            
THE PERIOD AND THEN INTO THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE            
ARE NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SOME            
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS DATA BOTH INDICATE SOME               
SATURATION IN THE MVFR RANGE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE OF              
HOURS AROUND 9Z AS WELL AS IN THE MID CLOUD RANGE. STAYED CLOSE TO              
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THIS...THOUGH SHORTENED THE LENGTH OF              
MVFR TO ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS CENTERED AROUND 9Z...MORE IN LINE WITH THE           
DRIER NAM AND RUC. LOW LEVEL DRYING SHOULD THEN OCCUR AS THE SFC HIGH           
BUILDS IN...THOUGH SOME STRATOCU AND CU SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE END            
OF THE PERIOD JUST BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS WILL ALSO              
SHIFT TO NW TO NWW BY 16Z BEHIND THE FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAL                                                                
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...JP                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
812 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS TRACKING RAPIDLY                    
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.       
MOVEMENT IS SOUTH AT 20 MPH. BOTH THE FORT POLK AND LAKE CHARLES                
RADARS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY WELL. AT THE CURRENT SPEED, THE COLD                  
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY 11 PM.                                          
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE WIND ADVISORIES PER LATEST MAV GUIDANCE               
AND FORT POLK VAD WINDS BUT HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED MORNING                       
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE                 
MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM               
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 26 TO 34                
DEGREES.                                                                        
GUIDANCE WILL TYPICALLY OVERSHOOT TEMPERATURES ON AIRMASSES SUCH                
AS THIS ONE WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS. FORTUNATELY, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL               
REMAIN POISED NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE COLD DOME OF HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THE LATEST RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE GIVES SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS              
UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO THE WATERS. FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO                
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE PEAK              
HOURS FOR WINDS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM. THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT                
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...LOCATED                
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES AREA OF EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL LA. FRONT TO              
PASS ACROSS KAEX BY 01Z...REACHING THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY 03Z.               
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE FROPA. WINDS EXPECTED              
TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25                  
KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. COULD ALSO                
SEE SOME CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD                
OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4000 FT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNRISE BUT WINDS               
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 24                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/ (FCSTR 13)               
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A SHREVEPORT TO COLLEGE STATION LINE AND              
MAKING GOOD SOUTHEAST PROGRESS. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED               
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE COASTAL                
WATERS THEREAFTER.                                                              
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH                
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS                
WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE SETUP IS NOT                 
AS FAVORABLE HERE WITH THE H925 AND SFC WINDS NOT QUITE AS WELL                 
ALIGNED AS THEY ARE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.                                       
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK LARGELY DRY...AND HAVE HELD ONTO              
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.                  
OTHERWISE...MAINLY JUST CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH.                            
AMID STRONG CAA REGIME...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD AS                  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S.                       
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THIS SEVEN DAY                            
FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE BONE DRY AIR SHOWN BY THE MODELS...AGAIN               
WILL CUT UNDER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THIS RESULTS IN FREEZING                       
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...AND A               
HARD FREEZE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONSIDERED A FREEZE                
WATCH PRODUCT TO ADVERTISE THIS...BUT WOULD PREFER TO BE DONE WITH              
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT               
IN THE HWO INSTEAD.                                                             
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO               
DEPICT A WARM/MOIST AIR REGIME SETTING UP BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND               
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT. CURRENT                      
FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK              
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME.                                                        
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK WAS A BLEND OF THE 06Z                
GFS AND TWO LATEST ECMWF RUNS...WHICH HAVE TEMPERED THE COOLDOWN                
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THEREAFTER SHOW A WARNING TREND UNDER             
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.                                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT              
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED                     
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS         
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY THE END                
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  40  54  32  61  49 /   5   0   0   0  10                                  
KBPT  40  54  35  61  51 /   5   0   0   0  10                                  
KAEX  34  51  27  58  41 /   5   0   0   0  10                                  
KLFT  40  53  30  61  46 /   5   0   0   0  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO               
     60 NM.                                                                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO                        
     HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM ...WATERS FROM               
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM                        
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO                    
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY             
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...                   
     VERMILION BAY.                                                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY              
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO                
     HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                            
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS                
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT                  
     20 NM.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SWEENEY                                                                         
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
956 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH                   
FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST               
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                       
MID LVL CLOUD DECK (BTWN 7K-11K FT) QUICKLY OVRSPRDG FA THIS EVE IN             
RESPONSE TO UPR LVL TROF APPRCHG RGN. ONLY LIMITED MSTR PROGGED                 
WITH THIS FTR AFTR 08Z TONITE AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. DESPITE THIS              
DRY AIR...LTST RUC/SREF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NAM PRODUCES AN AREA             
OF LGT MSTR ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF             
FLURRIES GNRLY S OF I64...ALTHOUGH VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.               
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...BUMPED UP TMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS WRN CNTYS.          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                             
TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE E EARLY FRI WITH CHANCE OF PRECIP                        
DIMINISHING OVER SRN COUNTIES. NW FETCH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CHES               
BAY DURING THE DAY FRI AND MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BAY EFFECT                
PRECIP PLUMES OVER THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND HAVE INCLUDED A                
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA OR -SN FOR THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPS COOLER AND              
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRI WITH H5 TROF SETTLING IN...ONLY 40 TO 45.              
SAT/SUN LOOK QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE REGION FROM THE              
W. HIGHS IN THE 40S SAT THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER UPR 40S TO LWR 50S                 
SUN...WITH LOWS NEAR 20 TO 34 SAT NIGHT...AND UPR 20S TO UPR 30S                
SUN NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN               
OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPS WILL                   
CONTINUE INLAND BUT SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING CLOSER TO THE                 
COAST.                                                                          
ON MONDAY AN UPR LOW DIVES DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE            
NORTH AND A FRONT SHIFTS OUR DIRECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN              
HRS. MODELS NOW IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO HAVE                
BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTN HRS AND CONTINUE THEM INTO              
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY                
MORNING HRS ON TUESDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE SEE ANY SNOW             
EARLY TUES MORNING WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE RIGHT BEHIND THE                 
FRONT. FOR NOW...THINK THAT TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING INLAND            
(MODELS ARE COMING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS)...BUT                 
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES WHERE IT MANAGES TO GET COLDER QUICKLY.             
THE LOW PULLS UP TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PUSHES IN FROM               
THE CNTRL PLAINS...SO ALTHOUGH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED ON WED...NOT               
TOO MUCH BLO FREEZING FOR MINS ON WED AND THURS MORNINGS. THE HIGH              
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURS MORNING THEN PUSHES               
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS COVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE          
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCT CLOUDS AT                  
AROUND 7 THOUSAND FEET. SKIES WILL VARY FROM CLEAR TO BROKEN CLOUD              
COVER BUT SAW NO REASON TO TIME SUCH CHANGES IN THE TAF. NW WINDS               
WILL INCREASE ON FRI AS WELL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS OF AROUND 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET DURING               
THE DAY EXCEPT AS LOW AS 4 THOUSAND AT SBY WHERE THERE WILL BE A                
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. INCLUDED VCSH THERE AFT 15Z.                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR          
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO                
MOVE THROUGH LATE MON OR EARLY TUE WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN                 
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OFF THE SE VA AND NC COAST HAVE BEEN               
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW                   
PRESSURE AREA THAT IS OVER SC. THE RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS                
HANDLING THIS WIND AND USED IT FOR THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IN                
THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT.                                                            
WINDS OVER THE BAY ARE CURRENTLY IN SCA RANGE...AND THIS SHOULD                 
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD                  
SURGE FRIDAY...EXPECTING WINDS OVER ALL THE WATERS TO INCREASE AROUND           
EARLY TO MID MORNING. SCA CONDS OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO               
GALE (OR AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS) BY LATE MORNING.                              
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT MORNING                
WHICH WILL HELP TO SUBSIDE WINDS...BUT SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH               
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH MVS             
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY SO WINDS SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...AND                
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON MON AFTN AS A FRONT APPROACHES.                      
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632.           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY                
     FOR ANZ633.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-             
     652-654-656-658.                                                           
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-             
     652-654-656-658.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JRL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JRL/MPR                                                             
SHORT TERM...JRL                                                                
LONG TERM...JYM                                                                 
AVIATION...LSA                                                                  
MARINE...JYM/LSA                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1029 AM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO               
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT                         
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                  
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LOOKING AT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RUC WILL LOWER MAX                   
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES.                                                          
UPR TROF MVS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AND MORE TRANQUIL (BUT STILL               
VERY COLD) WX FOLLOWS AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE SE STATES.                
HIGHS TODAY NOT UNLIKE TUE...BUT IT MAY FEEL A TAD WARMER AS WINDS              
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS TUE. HIGHS 40-45.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.                
EVEN COASTAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS VA BEACH/ORF WILL GET DOWN TO BLW                
FREEZING TEMPS...AND MAY REQUIRE A FREEZE WARNINGS TO OFFICALLY END             
THE GROWING SEASON. LOW TEMPS WIDESPREAD 20-30 ACROSS THE CWA.                  
TEMPS MODERATE (SOMEWHAT) ON THU UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...AND AGREE                
WITH PREV FORECAST ASSESEMENT THAT COOLING FROM CD FROPA THU AFTN               
WON`T COME TILL THE EVENING. HIGHS GENERALLY 50-55.                             
NEXT BLAST OF COLD AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI..AS UPF TROF              
AMPLIFIES AND TEMPS RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 40S...SIMILAR TO                     
TUE/WED. INTENSIFICATION OF THIS TROF MAY LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES OR             
SPRIKLES ACROSS THE ERN SHORE EARLY FRI...BEFORE POSSIBLY                       
DEVLOPING INTO A BAY EFFECT PLUME LATE FRI AFTN THRU THE EVENING.               
CURRENTLY INCLUDED CHC OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE ERN                  
SHORE FRI AFTN...THEN A CHC OF FLURRIES FOR THE BAY                             
EFFECT PLUME BY FRI EVENING. HI TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S.                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
MDLS IN GEN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING OFF THE                       
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM              
THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PRES GRAD WILL AGAIN BRING BREEZY                
CONDS AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAPERING                
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE                  
ANCHORED IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY FOR NOW.              
LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S            
BEFORE MODERATING SOMEWHAT INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL               
LIKELY BE IN THE M/U 30S...40S ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DUE TO BAY EFFECT ACROSS THE LOWER               
EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA AND SSE INTO THE ATLANTIC...JUST GLANCING             
KNTU AT TIMES. THE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED AS            
THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION (MEAN LLVL FLOW TO BECOME MORE             
ANTI-CYCLONIC OR NORTHERLY VS. NW). THIS SHOULD BRING THE MORE                  
EXTENSIVE BAY-EFFECT CLOUD COVER INTO KORF AND KNTU (VFR BASES AOA              
4KFT). AT THE SAME TIME...THE TRADEOFF WILL BE WITH THE LOWERING                
INVERSION HEIGHTS/CBL AS THE SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS...THUS EXPECT               
MORE FLURRIES THAN SNOW SHOWERS (I.E. VSBYS MAINLY VFR OR 6+ SM)                
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THESE BANDS DRIFT FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE                  
TIDEWATER REGION.                                                               
THIS AFTN...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA             
SO THERE WILL NOT BE A REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH              
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE W...              
HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY/DEEPEN...                 
EXPECT 15-20+ NW FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN VA/NC AND ESPECIALLY               
OVER THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHORE.                                                   
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.            
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI...HOWEVER              
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEEP NW                 
(DOWNSLOPE) FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS/WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AM AND THROUGH THE               
AFTN. DROPPED GALE WRNGS FOR THE CSTL WTRS AND PUT UP SCA UNTIL                 
12Z THU. SCA CONT FOR THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND UNTIL 6 PM                 
THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND SUBSEQUENT          
GALE OR STRONG SCA POSSIBLE FRI INTO SATURDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OCCURRED IN NOVEMBER:                             
RICHMOND....1991/8TH (0.1")                                                     
NORFOLK.....1987/11TH (0.3")                                                    
SALISBURY...1989/22-23RD (2.5")                                                 
RCRD LO TEMPS:                                                                  
NOV 19                                                                          
RIC 18 1936                                                                     
ORF 25 1959                                                                     
SBY 17 1936                                                                     
ECG 21 1959                                                                     
NOV 20                                                                          
RIC 21 1951                                                                     
ORF 27 1980                                                                     
SBY 22 1924                                                                     
ECG 25 1997                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     ANZ630>633.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-               
     654-656-658.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SMF                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JAB/SMF                                                             
SHORT TERM...SMF                                                                
LONG TERM...KLL                                                                 
AVIATION...BKH                                                                  
MARINE...JEF                                                                    
CLIMATE...                                                                      
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING LED TO AN                   
INCREASE IN THE LK EFFECT OVER WRN CWA...ESPECIALLY FM HIGHER                   
TERRAIN OF ONTONAGON COUNTY INTO BARAGA COUNTY. IR SATELLITE                    
INDICATES ENHANCEMENT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THOUGH. HEAVY LK                 
EFFECT OVR CNTRL COUNTIES PRETTY MUCH STAYED STEADY STATE WHILE                 
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH. POUNDING CONTINUES OVR NW QUARTER                 
OF DELTA COUNTY...WITH STORM TOTALS FM ROCK TO CORNELL TO NEAR                  
GLADSTONE WELL OVR A FOOT. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY BACKED THIS EVENING             
AS SHORTWAVE PASSED THROUGH AND THIS RESULTED IN HEAVIEST SNOW                  
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WITH ALGER INTO                        
SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE NOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND                    
SQUALLS.                                                                        
AM GOING TO LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES ALONE. THOUGHT ABOUT DROPPING               
MARQUETTE AS OVERALL SCOPE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED                       
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING ISOLATED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS               
STILL EXIST OVR THE WRN SECTIONS OF MARQUETTE INTO BARAGA WILL STILL            
HAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS               
AND BLSN...KEPT THE WARNING GOING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD               
NOT GET TOO OUT OF HAND THOUGH FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS BANDS WILL               
REMAIN ON THE MOVE.                                                             
WARNINGS IN THE EAST SHOULD WORK OUT FINE. DID TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS               
DOWN IN LUCE COUNTY TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK                
MORE TO THE NW. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL LK NIPEGON CONNECTION TO THE                
SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPEL STRONGER SNOW             
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE LK MICHIGAN SHORELINE. WINDS BACKING             
NW WILL FINALLY END THE HIGHLY UNUSUAL HEAVY LK SUPERIOR LK EFFECT              
EVENT OVR WRN DELTA COUNTY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW COLD NNW FLOW (12Z            
H85 TEMPS RANGE FM -18C AT YPL TO -14C AT GRB) OVER THE RELATIVELY              
WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (WATER TEMPS RANGE FM 5C OVER THE W TO 8C IN              
THE E) BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND LO PRES IN SE CAN.               
NMRS LES BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LK. A LOOK             
AT 12Z RAOBS SEEMS TO INDICATE WHY THE LES IS HEAVIEST OVER THIS                
PORTION OF THE LK. SHALLOW CLDS OVER WRN LK SUP IS WHERE STABILITY              
IS HIER/AIRMASS DRIER PER 12Z INL RAOB...WHICH SHOWS INVRN BASE AT              
H9 UNDER BONE DRY MID LVLS. ALTHOUGH 12Z YPL RAOB INDICATES INVRN               
BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL...THAT SDNG SHOWS MSTR THRU H7. SO LES BANDS               
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LK ARE MUCH MORE WELL DVLPD...ESPECIALLY THE             
BAND FED BY APRNT MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON. 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW             
SHOWS INVRN BASE ARND H85...BUT TEMPS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR ARE IN               
THE -10C TO -17C RANGE AND QUITE FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH. SO              
SN IS OF A VERY FLUFFY NATURE WITH HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. THE BANDS              
HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HTG DIMINISHING              
THE SHARPER LAND BREEZE CNVGC THAT ACCOMPANIES A WSHFT TO MORE NW               
OVER LAND DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING. OTRW...A SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE               
DIGGING SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND CLOSED LO NEAR JAMES BAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/GOING HEADLINES.                         
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO PROGGED TO SWING SEWD ACRS THE ERN               
ZNS AND TO NE LK HURON BY 12Z FRI. LLVL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK               
MORE NW THRU THE NGT IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRACK. THIS SHRTWV MOTION              
WL SUPPORT HIER INVRN BASE/DEEPER MOIST LYR OVER THE ERN CWA                    
(DOWNWIND OF YPL)...WITH LOWER INVRN HGT LIKELY OVER THE W UNDER                
HIER HGTS (DOWNWIND OF INL). H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL A DEGREE OR              
TWO DURING THE NGT...SO THERMAL PROFILE WITHIN MIXED LYR WL REMAIN              
FVRBL FOR HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. SO...LARGER SCALE FACTORS FAVOR A               
CONTINUATION OF HEAVY LES OVER THE E WITH LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE             
W. MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR REALLY HEFTY AMTS WL BE INITIALLY OVER THE             
CNTRL FM MQT-ESC...WHERE HIER RES LOCAL WRF-ARW/RUC13 MODELS HINT AT            
SHARPEST H925 CNVGC THRU 03Z. AS THE LARGER SCALE WINDS BACK MORE               
NW...THE MORE FVRBL LLVL CNVGC WL DRIFT TO THE E. DVLPMNT OF LAND               
BREEZE OFF THE WCNTRL HIER TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPS WL BE LOWEST                   
TNGT...WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE INTENSITY OF THE WRN-MOST BAND.                 
MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON WL CONT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND AS WELL. HINT            
OF LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO... MORE VEERED WIND OVER THE ERN U.P...              
MIGHT HAVE THE SAME IMPACT IN LUCE COUNTY.                                      
ON FRI...ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV WL APRCH FM THE NW AND PASS OVER            
THE ERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. AS WL BE THE CASE TNGT...INVRN HGT/            
DEPTH OF MOIST LYR WL REMAIN HI OVER THE E ON THE CYC TRACK OF THIS             
SHRTWV TRACK BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER OVER THE W. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST              
LES OVER THE E UNDER THIS HIER INVRN WITH LLVL FLOW ALSO SLOWLY                 
BACKING MORE NW. 12Z NAM/RUC13/WRF-ARW HINT AT SHARP LLVL CNVGC OVER            
LUCE/ERN ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO GOING WRNGS THERE LOOK ON              
TRACK EVEN IF LAND BREEZE CNVGC FADES A BIT THRU THE DAY. OVERALL...            
GOING ADVYS/ HEADLINES SEEM APPROPRIATE. ONLY PSBL UPDATE TO                    
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSITY OF WRNG FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND               
ABILITY TO CANX ADVY EARLY OVER THE W.                                          
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRI NGT THRU THU)...                                     
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.               
EXPECT SOME LES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES                
THROUGH SUNRISE AS PROGGED NAM/GFS 925-850 DEWPOINT DP REMAIN LESS              
THAN 7 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO TURN OFFSHORE BY                    
15Z...CUTTING OF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFT EAST OF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AFTN DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN. DID ADD IN               
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AS                 
LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT REMAINS             
WARMER THAN -10C ISOTHERM.                                                      
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL                  
IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SUNDAY                 
THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES ON MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS...ECMWF/GFS/GLBL-GEM...DISAGREE              
WITH OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS...WHICH APPEARS MAINLY TO BE A FUNCTION            
OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGING. FLATTER 500MB RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ECMWF              
SOLUTION ALLOWS SYSTEM TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND            
GLBL-GEM HAVE MUCH BETTER DEFINED 500MB RIDGE EXTENDING BACK INTO               
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULT OF THIS MASS FIELD DIFFERENCE ALLOWS THE                 
ECMWF LOW TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND                    
WEAKER...WHILE THE GFS/GLBL-GEM SOLUTIONS TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE               
FCST AREA WITH A STRONGER/SLOWER PROGRESSION. AS FAR AS DETAILS                 
GO...THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH IMPACT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT IN GFS                
WORLD AND A LOW IMPACT LES EVENT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. A QUICK LOOK            
AT SOME OF THE MASS FIELDS SHOWS MORE DIFFERENCES. LATEST                       
ECMWF(12Z)...SHOWS GOOD MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE (PER 700-500MB DIVQ)              
THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE MORE                 
BULLISH GFS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IS BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH BEST MID              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE            
LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. FROM THEIR INITIALIZATION ITS HARD            
TO COME UP WITH ANY DIFFERENCE THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE VARYING                   
SOLUTIONS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT.                          
.TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
TEMPORARILY WARM UP...THOUGH DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUITE                 
REACH 40. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE A VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS                 
POINT. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -6 TO -8C IN THE GFS AND 0 TO +2C IN              
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS DISCREPANCY IS DUE IN PART TO THE                 
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THE NEXT SYSTEM                   
BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING.              
BOTH THE GFS AND GLB-GEM AGREE WITH TIMING...THOUGH THERE ARE                   
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THIS SYSTEM              
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE LAKES ALTOGETHER.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH FRIDAY.               
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO IFR THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL                  
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS THROUGH AND ENHANCES THE SNOW.                               
AT SAW...HEAVY LK EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED EAST OF SAW AS WINDS             
HAVE BACKED MORE NW. RESULT IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVR THOSE SEEN              
THE LAST 12 HRS. ALTHOUGH LK EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE                  
TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS                   
BECOMING WRLY SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE LK EFFECT AT SAW ON FRIDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR LAKE SUPERIOR TO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW                         
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THIS STRONG            
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE            
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES SUPERIOR THROUGH                
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH                
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR                
     MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                        
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  NONE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...PEARSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
938 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS COVERAGE OF INLAND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS                   
EVENING, CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS IN THE THUMB. SURFACE             
ANALYSES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOW THE WINDS STRONGLY BACKED TO              
THE NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ALL THE WAY UP TO               
PRESQUE ISLE, AND THIS HAS KEPT ACTIVITY OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE               
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT CONVINCING THAT                  
THIS WILL LAST ALL NIGHT AND TEND TO AGREE AS THERE IS STILL AN                 
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO VEER AS A SHORT WAVE                
ROTATES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. AT                
THE SAME TIME, IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THIS TO OCCUR, SO              
ANY ENCOUNTER WITH EASTERN SECTIONS OF HURON COUNTY WILL BE                     
SHORTER IN DURATION BEFORE THE WINDS BACK MORE STRONGLY TO THE                  
WEST TOWARD SUNRISE. FOR NOW, WE WILL DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LENGTHY BREAK IN THE ACTION AND CALL FOR                
MORE OF A 3 TO 5 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION DURING THE EARLY                  
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 703 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL DISSIPATE THIS             
EVENING AFTER DIMINISHING SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND              
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A                    
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AS NW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW PERSISTS. THIS IS              
A DRY FLOW FOR OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN                
BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED               
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN PASSING MVFR CEILING                
AND VISIBILITY, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF DETROIT.               
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST ONCE AGAIN UP TO 25 KNOTS AT ALL                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
MAIN LAKE BAND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON PROVIDED JUST A GLANCING                
BLOW TO THE EASTERN THUMB COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A             
COUPLE INCHES REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF HURON COUNTY                
BEFORE THE BAND PUSHED OFFSHORE.                                                
NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE REMAINING NORTHERLY BAND(S)                         
NOTED OVER WESTERN LAKE HURON...AS CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL 8-10 KFT                
BASED OFF THE APX RADAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE            
HURON AND OVER EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME A BIT                
MORE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BAND(S) TO PUSH FARTHER                   
OFFSHORE...BUT STILL BELIEVE FAR EASTERN HURON COUNTY WILL GET                  
CLIPPED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES                            
EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORELINE....WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE                 
18Z RUC13...AS 925 MB OMEGA REALLY RAMPS UP LATE THIS EVENING OVER              
EASTERN HURON COUNTY. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...THE EVENING SHIFT                 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON EASTERN SANILAC COUNTY. LITTLE IF               
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WEST OF M-53.                                    
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN THUMB REGION...DIURNALLY ENHANCED                        
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND RECEDE CLOSER TO               
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW...WITH SKIES AT LEAST               
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING MINS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER               
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...DESPITE SURFACE WINDS FAILING TO DECOUPLE.                 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST...BY AND LARGE...THROUGHOUT THIS              
FORECAST PERIOD. TO START THE DAY FRIDAY...A BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT            
ACTIVITY WILL OFFSHORE OVER THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...THE             
TIP OF THE THUMB MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DURING               
THE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AT               
THE SAME TIME...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA...MAINLY             
NORTH OF THE METRO DETROIT AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...GENERALLY              
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A              
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE              
TENNESSEE VALLEY.                                                               
ACTUALLY...DRY WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD INTO SUNDAY AS WELL A              
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITHING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL MAINLY STAY              
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN            
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN A RELATIVELY MILD            
POSITION AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGH            
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH 40...PARTICULARLY WHERE LITTLE/NO SNOW COVER             
EXISTS...AS OPPOSED TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.              
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG WAVE             
ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER                 
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO TAP AT LEAST SOME GULF OF                
MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIX             
OF SNOW/RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                                     
AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND FORMS THEN FORMS INTO            
A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION...AS COLD CYCLONIC              
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY               
VERY WELL QUIET DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LARGE NORTHERN STREAM              
SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY.              
THIS WILL BRING MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS              
BACK TO AROUND 40 BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. WOULD HAVE TO SAY            
CONFIDENCE IS...AT BEST...MARGINAL GIVEN THE VIGOR OF THE UPCOMING              
SHORTWAVES AND THE INFLUENCE THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE ON THE OVERALL               
EVOLUTION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKES WILL TIGHTEN UP JUST A BIT                 
TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES OF THE LAND FALL THROUGH THE                        
20S...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER LAKE HURON             
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS             
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY            
MORNING ALLOWS FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE AND BRING AN END              
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ049...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                    
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BT                                                                 
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
703 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL DISSIPATE THIS             
EVENING AFTER DIMINISHING SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND              
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A                    
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AS NW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW PERSISTS. THIS IS              
A DRY FLOW FOR OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN                
BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED               
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL RESULT IN PASSING MVFR CEILING                
AND VISIBILITY, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF DETROIT.               
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST ONCE AGAIN UP TO 25 KNOTS AT ALL                      
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
MAIN LAKE BAND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON PROVIDED JUST A GLANCING                
BLOW TO THE EASTERN THUMB COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A             
COUPLE INCHES REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF HURON COUNTY                
BEFORE THE BAND PUSHED OFFSHORE.                                                
NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE REMAINING NORTHERLY BAND(S)                         
NOTED OVER WESTERN LAKE HURON...AS CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL 8-10 KFT                
BASED OFF THE APX RADAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE            
HURON AND OVER EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME A BIT                
MORE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BAND(S) TO PUSH FARTHER                   
OFFSHORE...BUT STILL BELIEVE FAR EASTERN HURON COUNTY WILL GET                  
CLIPPED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES                            
EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORELINE....WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE                 
18Z RUC13...AS 925 MB OMEGA REALLY RAMPS UP LATE THIS EVENING OVER              
EASTERN HURON COUNTY. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...THE EVENING SHIFT                 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON EASTERN SANILAC COUNTY. LITTLE IF               
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WEST OF M-53.                                    
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN THUMB REGION...DIURNALLY ENHANCED                        
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND RECEDE CLOSER TO               
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW...WITH SKIES AT LEAST               
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING MINS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER               
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...DESPITE SURFACE WINDS FAILING TO DECOUPLE.                 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST...BY AND LARGE...THROUGHOUT THIS              
FORECAST PERIOD. TO START THE DAY FRIDAY...A BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT            
ACTIVITY WILL OFFSHORE OVER THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...THE             
TIP OF THE THUMB MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DURING               
THE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AT               
THE SAME TIME...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA...MAINLY             
NORTH OF THE METRO DETROIT AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...GENERALLY              
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A              
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE              
TENNESSEE VALLEY.                                                               
ACTUALLY...DRY WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD INTO SUNDAY AS WELL A              
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITHING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL MAINLY STAY              
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN            
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN A RELATIVELY MILD            
POSITION AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGH            
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH 40...PARTICULARLY WHERE LITTLE/NO SNOW COVER             
EXISTS...AS OPPOSED TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.              
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG WAVE             
ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER                 
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO TAP AT LEAST SOME GULF OF                
MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIX             
OF SNOW/RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                                     
AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND FORMS THEN FORMS INTO            
A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION...AS COLD CYCLONIC              
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY               
VERY WELL QUIET DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LARGE NORTHERN STREAM              
SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY.              
THIS WILL BRING MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS              
BACK TO AROUND 40 BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. WOULD HAVE TO SAY            
CONFIDENCE IS...AT BEST...MARGINAL GIVEN THE VIGOR OF THE UPCOMING              
SHORTWAVES AND THE INFLUENCE THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE ON THE OVERALL               
EVOLUTION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKES WILL TIGHTEN UP JUST A BIT                 
TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES OF THE LAND FALL THROUGH THE                        
20S...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER LAKE HURON             
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS             
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY            
MORNING ALLOWS FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE AND BRING AN END              
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...MIZ049...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                     
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW COLD NNW FLOW (12Z            
H85 TEMPS RANGE FM -18C AT YPL TO -14C AT GRB) OVER THE RELATIVELY              
WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (WATER TEMPS RANGE FM 5C OVER THE W TO 8C IN              
THE E) BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND LO PRES IN SE CAN.               
NMRS LES BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LK. A LOOK             
AT 12Z RAOBS SEEMS TO INDICATE WHY THE LES IS HEAVIEST OVER THIS                
PORTION OF THE LK. SHALLOW CLDS OVER WRN LK SUP IS WHERE STABILITY              
IS HIER/AIRMASS DRIER PER 12Z INL RAOB...WHICH SHOWS INVRN BASE AT              
H9 UNDER BONE DRY MID LVLS. ALTHOUGH 12Z YPL RAOB INDICATES INVRN               
BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL...THAT SDNG SHOWS MSTR THRU H7. SO LES BANDS               
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LK ARE MUCH MORE WELL DVLPD...ESPECIALLY THE             
BAND FED BY APRNT MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON. 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW             
SHOWS INVRN BASE ARND H85...BUT TEMPS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR ARE IN               
THE -10C TO -17C RANGE AND QUITE FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH. SO              
SN IS OF A VERY FLUFFY NATURE WITH HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. THE BANDS              
HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HTG DIMINISHING              
THE SHARPER LAND BREEZE CNVGC THAT ACCOMPANIES A WSHFT TO MORE NW               
OVER LAND DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING. OTRW...A SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE               
DIGGING SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND CLOSED LO NEAR JAMES BAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/GOING HEADLINES.                         
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO PROGGED TO SWING SEWD ACRS THE ERN               
ZNS AND TO NE LK HURON BY 12Z FRI. LLVL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK               
MORE NW THRU THE NGT IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRACK. THIS SHRTWV MOTION              
WL SUPPORT HIER INVRN BASE/DEEPER MOIST LYR OVER THE ERN CWA                    
(DOWNWIND OF YPL)...WITH LOWER INVRN HGT LIKELY OVER THE W UNDER                
HIER HGTS (DOWNWIND OF INL). H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL A DEGREE OR              
TWO DURING THE NGT...SO THERMAL PROFILE WITHIN MIXED LYR WL REMAIN              
FVRBL FOR HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. SO...LARGER SCALE FACTORS FAVOR A               
CONTINUATION OF HEAVY LES OVER THE E WITH LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE             
W. MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR REALLY HEFTY AMTS WL BE INITIALLY OVER THE             
CNTRL FM MQT-ESC...WHERE HIER RES LOCAL WRF-ARW/RUC13 MODELS HINT AT            
SHARPEST H925 CNVGC THRU 03Z. AS THE LARGER SCALE WINDS BACK MORE               
NW...THE MORE FVRBL LLVL CNVGC WL DRIFT TO THE E. DVLPMNT OF LAND               
BREEZE OFF THE WCNTRL HIER TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPS WL BE LOWEST                   
TNGT...WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE INTENSITY OF THE WRN-MOST BAND.                 
MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON WL CONT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND AS WELL. HINT            
OF LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO... MORE VEERED WIND OVER THE ERN U.P...              
MIGHT HAVE THE SAME IMPACT IN LUCE COUNTY.                                      
ON FRI...ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV WL APRCH FM THE NW AND PASS OVER            
THE ERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. AS WL BE THE CASE TNGT...INVRN HGT/            
DEPTH OF MOIST LYR WL REMAIN HI OVER THE E ON THE CYC TRACK OF THIS             
SHRTWV TRACK BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER OVER THE W. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST              
LES OVER THE E UNDER THIS HIER INVRN WITH LLVL FLOW ALSO SLOWLY                 
BACKING MORE NW. 12Z NAM/RUC13/WRF-ARW HINT AT SHARP LLVL CNVGC OVER            
LUCE/ERN ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO GOING WRNGS THERE LOOK ON              
TRACK EVEN IF LAND BREEZE CNVGC FADES A BIT THRU THE DAY. OVERALL...            
GOING ADVYS/ HEADLINES SEEM APPROPRIATE. ONLY PSBL UPDATE TO                    
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSITY OF WRNG FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND               
ABILITY TO CANX ADVY EARLY OVER THE W.                                          
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRI NGT THRU THU)...                                     
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.               
EXPECT SOME LES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES                
THROUGH SUNRISE AS PROGGED NAM/GFS 925-850 DEWPOINT DP REMAIN LESS              
THAN 7 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO TURN OFFSHORE BY                    
15Z...CUTTING OF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFT EAST OF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AFTN DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN. DID ADD IN               
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AS                 
LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT REMAINS             
WARMER THAN -10C ISOTHERM.                                                      
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL                  
IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SUNDAY                 
THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES ON MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS...ECMWF/GFS/GLBL-GEM...DISAGREE              
WITH OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS...WHICH APPEARS MAINLY TO BE A FUNCTION            
OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGING. FLATTER 500MB RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ECMWF              
SOLUTION ALLOWS SYSTEM TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND            
GLBL-GEM HAVE MUCH BETTER DEFINED 500MB RIDGE EXTENDING BACK INTO               
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULT OF THIS MASS FIELD DIFFERENCE ALLOWS THE                 
ECMWF LOW TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND                    
WEAKER...WHILE THE GFS/GLBL-GEM SOLUTIONS TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE               
FCST AREA WITH A STRONGER/SLOWER PROGRESSION. AS FAR AS DETAILS                 
GO...THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH IMPACT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT IN GFS                
WORLD AND A LOW IMPACT LES EVENT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. A QUICK LOOK            
AT SOME OF THE MASS FIELDS SHOWS MORE DIFFERENCES. LATEST                       
ECMWF(12Z)...SHOWS GOOD MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE (PER 700-500MB DIVQ)              
THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE MORE                 
BULLISH GFS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IS BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH BEST MID              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE            
LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. FROM THEIR INITIALIZATION ITS HARD            
TO COME UP WITH ANY DIFFERENCE THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE VARYING                   
SOLUTIONS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT.                          
.TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
TEMPORARILY WARM UP...THOUGH DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUITE                 
REACH 40. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE A VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS                 
POINT. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -6 TO -8C IN THE GFS AND 0 TO +2C IN              
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS DISCREPANCY IS DUE IN PART TO THE                 
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THE NEXT SYSTEM                   
BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING.              
BOTH THE GFS AND GLB-GEM AGREE WITH TIMING...THOUGH THERE ARE                   
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THIS SYSTEM              
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE LAKES ALTOGETHER.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH FRIDAY.               
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO IFR THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL                  
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS THROUGH AND ENHANCES THE SNOW.                               
AT SAW...HEAVY LK EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED EAST OF SAW AS WINDS             
HAVE BACKED MORE NW. RESULT IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVR THOSE SEEN              
THE LAST 12 HRS. ALTHOUGH LK EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE                  
TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS                   
BECOMING WRLY SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE LK EFFECT AT SAW ON FRIDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR LAKE SUPERIOR TO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW                         
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THIS STRONG            
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE            
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES SUPERIOR THROUGH                
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH                
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR                
     MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                        
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...PEARSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
402 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW COLD NNW FLOW (12Z            
H85 TEMPS RANGE FM -18C AT YPL TO -14C AT GRB) OVER THE RELATIVELY              
WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (WATER TEMPS RANGE FM 5C OVER THE W TO 8C IN              
THE E) BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND LO PRES IN SE CAN.               
NMRS LES BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LK. A LOOK             
AT 12Z RAOBS SEEMS TO INDICATE WHY THE LES IS HEAVIEST OVER THIS                
PORTION OF THE LK. SHALLOW CLDS OVER WRN LK SUP IS WHERE STABILITY              
IS HIER/AIRMASS DRIER PER 12Z INL RAOB...WHICH SHOWS INVRN BASE AT              
H9 UNDER BONE DRY MID LVLS. ALTHOUGH 12Z YPL RAOB INDICATES INVRN               
BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL...THAT SDNG SHOWS MSTR THRU H7. SO LES BANDS               
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LK ARE MUCH MORE WELL DVLPD...ESPECIALLY THE             
BAND FED BY APRNT MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON. 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW             
SHOWS INVRN BASE ARND H85...BUT TEMPS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR ARE IN               
THE -10C TO -17C RANGE AND QUITE FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH. SO              
SN IS OF A VERY FLUFFY NATURE WITH HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. THE BANDS              
HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HTG DIMINISHING              
THE SHARPER LAND BREEZE CNVGC THAT ACCOMPANIES A WSHFT TO MORE NW               
OVER LAND DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING. OTRW...A SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE               
DIGGING SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND CLOSED LO NEAR JAMES BAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THU NT AND FRI)...                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/GOING HEADLINES.                         
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO PROGGED TO SWING SEWD ACRS THE ERN               
ZNS AND TO NE LK HURON BY 12Z FRI. LLVL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK               
MORE NW THRU THE NGT IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRACK. THIS SHRTWV MOTION              
WL SUPPORT HIER INVRN BASE/DEEPER MOIST LYR OVER THE ERN CWA                    
(DOWNWIND OF YPL)...WITH LOWER INVRN HGT LIKELY OVER THE W UNDER                
HIER HGTS (DOWNWIND OF INL). H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL A DEGREE OR              
TWO DURING THE NGT...SO THERMAL PROFILE WITHIN MIXED LYR WL REMAIN              
FVRBL FOR HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. SO...LARGER SCALE FACTORS FAVOR A               
CONTINUATION OF HEAVY LES OVER THE E WITH LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE             
W. MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR REALLY HEFTY AMTS WL BE INITIALLY OVER THE             
CNTRL FM MQT-ESC...WHERE HIER RES LOCAL WRF-ARW/RUC13 MODELS HINT AT            
SHARPEST H925 CNVGC THRU 03Z. AS THE LARGER SCALE WINDS BACK MORE               
NW...THE MORE FVRBL LLVL CNVGC WL DRIFT TO THE E. DVLPMNT OF LAND               
BREEZE OFF THE WCNTRL HIER TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPS WL BE LOWEST                   
TNGT...WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE INTENSITY OF THE WRN-MOST BAND.                 
MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON WL CONT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND AS WELL. HINT            
OF LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO... MORE VEERED WIND OVER THE ERN U.P...              
MIGHT HAVE THE SAME IMPACT IN LUCE COUNTY.                                      
ON FRI...ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV WL APRCH FM THE NW AND PASS OVER            
THE ERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. AS WL BE THE CASE TNGT...INVRN HGT/            
DEPTH OF MOIST LYR WL REMAIN HI OVER THE E ON THE CYC TRACK OF THIS             
SHRTWV TRACK BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER OVER THE W. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST              
LES OVER THE E UNDER THIS HIER INVRN WITH LLVL FLOW ALSO SLOWLY                 
BACKING MORE NW. 12Z NAM/RUC13/WRF-ARW HINT AT SHARP LLVL CNVGC OVER            
LUCE/ERN ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO GOING WRNGS THERE LOOK ON              
TRACK EVEN IF LAND BREEZE CNVGC FADES A BIT THRU THE DAY. OVERALL...            
GOING ADVYS/ HEADLINES SEEM APPROPRIATE. ONLY PSBL UPDATE TO                    
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSITY OF WRNG FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND               
ABILITY TO CANX ADVY EARLY OVER THE W.                                          
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRI NGT THRU THU)...                                     
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.               
EXPECT SOME LES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES                
THROUGH SUNRISE AS PROGGED NAM/GFS 925-850 DEWPOINT DP REMAIN LESS              
THAN 7 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO TURN OFFSHORE BY                    
15Z...CUTTING OF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFT EAST OF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AFTN DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN. DID ADD IN               
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AS                 
LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT REMAINS             
WARMER THAN -10C ISOTHERM.                                                      
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL                  
IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SUNDAY                 
THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES ON MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS...ECMWF/GFS/GLBL-GEM...DISAGREE              
WITH OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS...WHICH APPEARS MAINLY TO BE A FUNCTION            
OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGING. FLATTER 500MB RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ECMWF              
SOLUTION ALLOWS SYSTEM TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND            
GLBL-GEM HAVE MUCH BETTER DEFINED 500MB RIDGE EXTENDING BACK INTO               
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULT OF THIS MASS FIELD DIFFERENCE ALLOWS THE                 
ECMWF LOW TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND                    
WEAKER...WHILE THE GFS/GLBL-GEM SOLUTIONS TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE               
FCST AREA WITH A STRONGER/SLOWER PROGRESSION. AS FAR AS DETAILS                 
GO...THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH IMPACT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT IN GFS                
WORLD AND A LOW IMPACT LES EVENT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. A QUICK LOOK            
AT SOME OF THE MASS FIELDS SHOWS MORE DIFFERENCES. LATEST                       
ECMWF(12Z)...SHOWS GOOD MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE (PER 700-500MB DIVQ)              
THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE MORE                 
BULLISH GFS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IS BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH BEST MID              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE            
LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. FROM THEIR INITIALIZATION ITS HARD            
TO COME UP WITH ANY DIFFERENCE THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE VARYING                   
SOLUTIONS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT.                          
.TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
TEMPORARILY WARM UP...THOUGH DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUITE                 
REACH 40. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE A VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS                 
POINT. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -6 TO -8C IN THE GFS AND 0 TO +2C IN              
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS DISCREPANCY IS DUE IN PART TO THE                 
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THE NEXT SYSTEM                   
BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING.              
BOTH THE GFS AND GLB-GEM AGREE WITH TIMING...THOUGH THERE ARE                   
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THIS SYSTEM              
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE LAKES ALTOGETHER.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...KEPT PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST 6HRS AT MVFR...BUT            
DID PUT A TEMPO PERIOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS...AS LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS             
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH. AFTER 00Z...STARTED TO SLOWLY BRING THE               
VSBYS UP...DUE TO INTENSITY OF LES DIMINISHING AS WINDS TURN                    
NW...BUT STILL KEPT AT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS.                                      
AT SAW...HAVE PREVAILING IFR VSBYS FOR FIRST 4HRS...WITH TEMPO LIFR             
VSBYS...AS STRONG LES AND UPSLOPE BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SAW.            
EXPECT THE BANDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E DURING THE LATE AFTN AND                  
EVENING...AS WINDS BACK NW...SO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MVFR AFTER 02Z.            
KEPT EXISTING MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z...BUT HIGH VSBYS...DUE TO MAIN LES            
BANDS MOVING E AND SAW IN UNFAVORABLE NW WIND LES LOCATION.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR LAKE SUPERIOR TO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW                         
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THIS STRONG            
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE            
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES SUPERIOR THROUGH                
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH                
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR                
     MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                        
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.                          
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...SRF                                                                  
MARINE...PEARSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
MAIN LAKE BAND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON PROVIDED JUST A GLANCING                
BLOW TO THE EASTERN THUMB COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A             
COUPLE INCHES REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF HURON COUNTY                
BEFORE THE BAND PUSHED OFFSHORE.                                                
NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE REMAINING NORTHERLY BAND(S)                         
NOTED OVER WESTERN LAKE HURON...AS CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL 8-10 KFT                
BASED OFF THE APX RADAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE            
HURON AND OVER EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME A BIT                
MORE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BAND(S) TO PUSH FARTHER                   
OFFSHORE...BUT STILL BELIEVE FAR EASTERN HURON COUNTY WILL GET                  
CLIPPED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES                            
EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORELINE....WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE                 
18Z RUC13...AS 925 MB OMEGA REALLY RAMPS UP LATE THIS EVENING OVER              
EASTERN HURON COUNTY. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...THE EVENING SHIFT                 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON EASTERN SANILAC COUNTY. LITTLE IF               
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WEST OF M-53.                                    
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN THUMB REGION...DIURNALLY ENHANCED                        
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND RECEDE CLOSER TO               
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW...WITH SKIES AT LEAST               
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING MINS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER               
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...DESPITE SURFACE WINDS FAILING TO DECOUPLE.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST...BY AND LARGE...THROUGHOUT THIS              
FORECAST PERIOD. TO START THE DAY FRIDAY...A BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT            
ACTIVITY WILL OFFSHORE OVER THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...THE             
TIP OF THE THUMB MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DURING               
THE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AT               
THE SAME TIME...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA...MAINLY             
NORTH OF THE METRO DETROIT AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...GENERALLY              
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A              
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE              
TENNESSEE VALLEY.                                                               
ACTUALLY...DRY WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD INTO SUNDAY AS WELL A              
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITHING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL MAINLY STAY              
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN            
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN A RELATIVELY MILD            
POSITION AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGH            
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH 40...PARTICULARLY WHERE LITTLE/NO SNOW COVER             
EXISTS...AS OPPOSED TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.              
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG WAVE             
ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER                 
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO TAP AT LEAST SOME GULF OF                
MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIX             
OF SNOW/RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                                     
AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND FORMS THEN FORMS INTO            
A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION...AS COLD CYCLONIC              
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY               
VERY WELL QUIET DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LARGE NORTHERN STREAM              
SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY.              
THIS WILL BRING MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS              
BACK TO AROUND 40 BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. WOULD HAVE TO SAY            
CONFIDENCE IS...AT BEST...MARGINAL GIVEN THE VIGOR OF THE UPCOMING              
SHORTWAVES AND THE INFLUENCE THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE ON THE OVERALL               
EVOLUTION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKES WILL TIGHTEN UP JUST A BIT                 
TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES OF THE LAND FALL THROUGH THE                        
20S...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER LAKE HURON             
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS             
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY            
MORNING ALLOWS FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE AND BRING AN END              
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1240 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT                 
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED MVFR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.          
UNFAVORABLY NNW TRAJECTORY AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS                   
EXPECTED TO ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING INTO               
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY                    
DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS (NEAR 3000                   
FEET) AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY.                
WINDS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF A NORTHWEST DIRECTION                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 16 KNOT                              
RANGE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...MIZ049...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                     
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......SF                                                                 
AVIATION.....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1224 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO START THE LES ADVISORY FOR DELTA                
COUNTY NOW INSTEAD OF THU MORNING AS STRONG NNW FLOW IS DISPLACING              
DOMINANT BANDS INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER RADAR LOOP. WENT             
WITH AMOUNTS UP OF 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT                
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF US-2.                                        
ALSO BUMPED UP AMTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AS THE WRF-ARW                   
INDICATES THAT A DOMINANT BAND COULD SET UP THERE OVERNIGHT IN AREA             
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.                                              
WE HAD OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF SLEET THIS EVENING MIXING WITH THE                 
SNOW...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY..THE KSAW TAMDAR SNDG INDICATED NEAR SFC            
LYR TEMPS TO SUPPORT AGGREGATION PROCESSES FOR SLEET TO TAKE PLACE              
BENEATH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LYR. EXPECT SLEET TO BE BRIEF AS              
COLDER TEMPS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT MUCH OF               
THE NEAR-SFC TEMPERATURE PROFILE INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH                      
ZONE.                                                                           
THE REST OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH             
THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF MQT COUNTY AND WRN              
ALGER COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHERE THE BEST LOCALIZED                
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RDG OVER WRN              
NOAM AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND. A CLIPPER            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER                    
UPSTREAM MOVING INTO SRN SASK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED                
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TROUGH TO THE SSE TO NEAR KERY AND                
THROUGH LAKE MI. SNOW SHOWERS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI WERE ASSOCIATED               
WITH LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN WITH WINDS                   
VEERING NNW IN ITS WAKE.                                                        
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                            
ALTHOUGH THE SASK SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SE OF UPPER            
MI IT WILL HELP DEEPEN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AND DRAW COLD AIR OVER              
NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD.                                         
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -8C TO -11              
AT 00Z/THU TO -12C TO -16C 12Z/THU AND TO NEAR-17C BY 00Z/FRI...PER             
NAM/GFS BLEND. WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 5C LAKE-850 MB                            
DELTA/T...INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH (LAKE INDUCED CAPE                  
CLIMBING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG TO 700 J/KG) TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO               
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INTO NNW FLOW SNOWBELTS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE...IN THE 7K-10K FT RANGE.              
GOOD SNOWGROWTH PROFILE WITH BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION OR UPWARD              
MOTION IN THE LAKE CLOUDS IN THE -12C TO -17C LAYER SHOULD ALSO                 
BOOST SNOW/RATIO TO AROUND 25/1 BY THU.                                         
THE LCLY RUN HIGH RES WRF/ARW AND REGIONAL WRF/ARW IN                           
ADDITION TO THE NAM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT              
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER SNOWBAND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED                
FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE FAR WRN PORTION OF ALGER COUNTY.              
BANDS ORIGINATING OFF OF LAKE NIPIGON MAY ALSO LINE UP FROM NEAR                
KCMX INTO BARAGA COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING THU. HOWEVER...GENERALLY               
OVER THE WEST...THE SLIGHTLY SHORTER FETCH SHOULD LIMIT LES                     
POTENTIAL INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2-5                
INCH/PER 12 HOUR RANGE.                                                         
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO             
NOVA SCOTIA. BEHIND IT...STRONG LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL DEVELOP              
AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS            
FALL TO AROUND -18C AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND PREVIOUSLY                  
MENTIONED CLIPPER. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST             
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...ALGER COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 8 PLUS INCHES OF              
SNOW FROM SKANDIA EASTWARD TO WETMORE AND MELSTRAND. BY FRIDAY THE              
OVERALL WIND FIELD BACKS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...AS A RESULT...LAKE                
EFFECT BANDS WILL SHIFT EVEN MORE EAST...ANOTHER 5 TO 6 INCHES CAN              
BE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM DEERTON TO TRENARY. THERE IS SOME               
CONCERN THAT SLR COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE 25:1 CURRENTLY                        
ANTICIPATED. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN                
INCREASING SLR TREND THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS THE BEST LIFT BECOMES              
BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THE COBB SLR METHOD               
POINTS TO SLR RANGING FROM 15/20:1 TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND                     
INCREASING TO 30/35:1 BY FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN SLR CAN            
GREATLY AFFECT THE OVERALL TOTAL.                                               
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF UP            
TO TWO FEET OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALGER COUNTY             
AND FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY (EAST OF SKANDIA)...AND A GENERAL              
FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.P. FOR ADDITIONAL                 
STORM TOTAL DETAILS SEE THE LATEST WSWMQT PRODUCT.                              
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH                      
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT INTO THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES...IN FACT LES SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR             
WESTERN LES NW WIND SNOW BELTS. THIS TEMPORARY LULL IN LES WON/T                
LAST LONG AS NEXT SYSTEM IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST             
GFS GUIDANCE PROGS A SFC LOW MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SUNDAY NIGHT             
TO GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE LOW BASICALLY STALLS            
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD RESULT              
IN A ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY.                     
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTS A MORE SOUTHERLY AND MORE              
PROGRESSIVE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MINOR LES EVENT AND A               
MODERATE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
UPSTREAM 00Z SNDGS AT KINL AND CWPL INDICATING FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVEL             
AIR BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAVING AN                  
ADVERSE EFFECT ON LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                             
THUS AT KCMX...HAVE DECIDED TO GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KCMX FOR             
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING VFR VSBY AND A TEMPO GRP FOR MVFR VSBYS.              
KEPT IFR VSBYS FOR THU 15-19Z TIME FRAME AS LOCAL MODELS INDICATE A             
DOMINANT LES COULD MOVE OVER ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BACKING TO LESS             
FAVORABLE NW FLOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR                     
CONDITIONS INTO THE THU EVENING.                                                
AT KSAW...PERSISTENT GUSTY NRLY FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR                 
PREVAILING IFR VSBYS IN SHSN/BLSN INTO MID THU AFTERNOON. BACKING               
FLOW TO NW LATE IN THE DAY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DOMINANT LES              
BANDS SO IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE                
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE SE AND OVER LK HURON             
BY 06Z THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE                 
LOW...WITH GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LK SUPERIOR. THE             
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LK THIS             
EVENING...AS PRESSURE RISE COUPLET SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS                 
SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND GRAND                  
MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS ON THURS AFTN...AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL                 
CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY            
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR                
     MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                        
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ085.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006.                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ013.                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.                              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.                              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265.                         
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ249-250.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ248.                              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.                              
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ250.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS...JLB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...SRF/PEARSON                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO START THE LES ADVISORY FOR DELTA                
COUNTY NOW INSTEAD OF THU MORNING AS STRONG NNW FLOW IS DISPLACING              
DOMINANT BANDS INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER RADAR LOOP. WENT             
WITH AMOUNTS UP OF 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT                
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF US-2.                                        
ALSO BUMPED UP AMTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AS THE WRF-ARW                   
INDICATES THAT A DOMINANT BAND COULD SET UP THERE OVERNIGHT IN AREA             
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.                                              
WE HAD OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF SLEET THIS EVENING MIXING WITH THE                 
SNOW...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY..THE KSAW TAMDAR SNDG INDICATED NEAR SFC            
LYR TEMPS TO SUPPORT AGGREGATION PROCESSES FOR SLEET TO TAKE PLACE              
BENEATH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LYR. EXPECT SLEET TO BE BRIEF AS              
COLDER TEMPS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT MUCH OF               
THE NEAR-SFC TEMPERATURE PROFILE INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH                      
ZONE.                                                                           
THE REST OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH             
THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF MQT COUNTY AND WRN              
ALGER COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHERE THE BEST LOCALIZED                
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RDG OVER WRN              
NOAM AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND. A CLIPPER            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER                    
UPSTREAM MOVING INTO SRN SASK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED                
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TROUGH TO THE SSE TO NEAR KERY AND                
THROUGH LAKE MI. SNOW SHOWERS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI WERE ASSOCIATED               
WITH LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN WITH WINDS                   
VEERING NNW IN ITS WAKE.                                                        
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                            
ALTHOUGH THE SASK SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SE OF UPPER            
MI IT WILL HELP DEEPEN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AND DRAW COLD AIR OVER              
NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD.                                         
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -8C TO -11              
AT 00Z/THU TO -12C TO -16C 12Z/THU AND TO NEAR-17C BY 00Z/FRI...PER             
NAM/GFS BLEND. WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 5C LAKE-850 MB                            
DELTA/T...INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH (LAKE INDUCED CAPE                  
CLIMBING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG TO 700 J/KG) TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO               
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INTO NNW FLOW SNOWBELTS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE...IN THE 7K-10K FT RANGE.              
GOOD SNOWGROWTH PROFILE WITH BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION OR UPWARD              
MOTION IN THE LAKE CLOUDS IN THE -12C TO -17C LAYER SHOULD ALSO                 
BOOST SNOW/RATIO TO AROUND 25/1 BY THU.                                         
THE LCLY RUN HIGH RES WRF/ARW AND REGIONAL WRF/ARW IN                           
ADDITION TO THE NAM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT              
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER SNOWBAND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED                
FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE FAR WRN PORTION OF ALGER COUNTY.              
BANDS ORIGINATING OFF OF LAKE NIPIGON MAY ALSO LINE UP FROM NEAR                
KCMX INTO BARAGA COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING THU. HOWEVER...GENERALLY               
OVER THE WEST...THE SLIGHTLY SHORTER FETCH SHOULD LIMIT LES                     
POTENTIAL INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2-5                
INCH/PER 12 HOUR RANGE.                                                         
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO             
NOVA SCOTIA. BEHIND IT...STRONG LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL DEVELOP              
AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS            
FALL TO AROUND -18C AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND PREVIOUSLY                  
MENTIONED CLIPPER. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST             
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...ALGER COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 8 PLUS INCHES OF              
SNOW FROM SKANDIA EASTWARD TO WETMORE AND MELSTRAND. BY FRIDAY THE              
OVERALL WIND FIELD BACKS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...AS A RESULT...LAKE                
EFFECT BANDS WILL SHIFT EVEN MORE EAST...ANOTHER 5 TO 6 INCHES CAN              
BE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM DEERTON TO TRENARY. THERE IS SOME               
CONCERN THAT SLR COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE 25:1 CURRENTLY                        
ANTICIPATED. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN                
INCREASING SLR TREND THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS THE BEST LIFT BECOMES              
BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THE COBB SLR METHOD               
POINTS TO SLR RANGING FROM 15/20:1 TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND                     
INCREASING TO 30/35:1 BY FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN SLR CAN            
GREATLY AFFECT THE OVERALL TOTAL.                                               
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF UP            
TO TWO FEET OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALGER COUNTY             
AND FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY (EAST OF SKANDIA)...AND A GENERAL              
FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.P. FOR ADDITIONAL                 
STORM TOTAL DETAILS SEE THE LATEST WSWMQT PRODUCT.                              
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH                      
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT INTO THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES...IN FACT LES SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR             
WESTERN LES NW WIND SNOW BELTS. THIS TEMPORARY LULL IN LES WON/T                
LAST LONG AS NEXT SYSTEM IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST             
GFS GUIDANCE PROGS A SFC LOW MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SUNDAY NIGHT             
TO GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE LOW BASICALLY STALLS            
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD RESULT              
IN A ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY.                     
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTS A MORE SOUTHERLY AND MORE              
PROGRESSIVE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MINOR LES EVENT AND A               
MODERATE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR               
MOVES IN ON NNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SE FROM                
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR                
VSBY THIS EVENING. SIMILARLY...MVFR VSBY AT KSAW EARLY THIS EVENING             
WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 02-03Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO                    
CONTRIBUTE TO BLSN KEEPING VIS IFR OR LOWER INTO THU MORNING.                   
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE             
NW SHIFTING DOMINANT LES BANDS EAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE SE AND OVER LK HURON             
BY 06Z THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE                 
LOW...WITH GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LK SUPERIOR. THE             
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LK THIS             
EVENING...AS PRESSURE RISE COUPLET SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS                 
SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND GRAND                  
MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS ON THURS AFTN...AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL                 
CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY            
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR                
     MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                        
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ085.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006.                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ013.                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.                              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266.                              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ264-265.                         
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ249-250.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ248.                              
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245.                          
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.                              
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ250.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS...JLB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...SRF/PEARSON                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
843 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A RDG OVER WRN              
NOAM AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND. A CLIPPER            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER                    
UPSTREAM MOVING INTO SRN SASK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED                
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TROUGH TO THE SSE TO NEAR KERY AND                
THROUGH LAKE MI. SNOW SHOWERS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI WERE ASSOCIATED               
WITH LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN WITH WINDS                   
VEERING NNW IN ITS WAKE.                                                        
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                            
ALTHOUGH THE SASK SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SE OF UPPER            
MI IT WILL HELP DEEPEN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AND DRAW COLD AIR OVER              
NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD.                                         
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -8C TO -11              
AT 00Z/THU TO -12C TO -16C 12Z/THU AND TO NEAR-17C BY 00Z/FRI...PER             
NAM/GFS BLEND. WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 5C LAKE-850 MB                            
DELTA/T...INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH (LAKE INDUCED CAPE                  
CLIMBING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG TO 700 J/KG) TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO               
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INTO NNW FLOW SNOWBELTS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE...IN THE 7K-10K FT RANGE.              
GOOD SNOWGROWTH PROFILE WITH BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION OR UPWARD              
MOTION IN THE LAKE CLOUDS IN THE -12C TO -17C LAYER SHOULD ALSO                 
BOOST SNOW/RATIO TO AROUND 25/1 BY THU.                                         
THE LCLY RUN HIGH RES WRF/ARW AND REGIONAL WRF/ARW IN                           
ADDITION TO THE NAM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT              
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER SNOWBAND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED                
FROM ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE FAR WRN PORTION OF ALGER COUNTY.              
BANDS ORIGINATING OFF OF LAKE NIPIGON MAY ALSO LINE UP FROM NEAR                
KCMX INTO BARAGA COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING THU. HOWEVER...GENERALLY               
OVER THE WEST...THE SLIGHTLY SHORTER FETCH SHOULD LIMIT LES                     
POTENTIAL INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2-5                
INCH/PER 12 HOUR RANGE.                                                         
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO             
NOVA SCOTIA. BEHIND IT...STRONG LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL DEVELOP              
AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS            
FALL TO AROUND -18C AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND PREVIOUSLY                  
MENTIONED CLIPPER. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST             
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...ALGER COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 8 PLUS INCHES OF              
SNOW FROM SKANDIA EASTWARD TO WETMORE AND MELSTRAND. BY FRIDAY THE              
OVERALL WIND FIELD BACKS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...AS A RESULT...LAKE                
EFFECT BANDS WILL SHIFT EVEN MORE EAST...ANOTHER 5 TO 6 INCHES CAN              
BE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM DEERTON TO TRENARY. THERE IS SOME               
CONCERN THAT SLR COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE 25:1 CURRENTLY                        
ANTICIPATED. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN                
INCREASING SLR TREND THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS THE BEST LIFT BECOMES              
BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THE COBB SLR METHOD               
POINTS TO SLR RANGING FROM 15/20:1 TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND                     
INCREASING TO 30/35:1 BY FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN SLR CAN            
GREATLY AFFECT THE OVERALL TOTAL.                                               
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF UP            
TO TWO FEET OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALGER COUNTY             
AND FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY (EAST OF SKANDIA)...AND A GENERAL              
FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.P. FOR ADDITIONAL                 
STORM TOTAL DETAILS SEE THE LATEST WSWMQT PRODUCT.                              
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH                      
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT INTO THE UPPER               
GREAT LAKES...IN FACT LES SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR             
WESTERN LES NW WIND SNOW BELTS. THIS TEMPORARY LULL IN LES WON/T                
LAST LONG AS NEXT SYSTEM IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST             
GFS GUIDANCE PROGS A SFC LOW MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SUNDAY NIGHT             
TO GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE LOW BASICALLY STALLS            
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD RESULT              
IN A ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY.                     
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTS A MORE SOUTHERLY AND MORE              
PROGRESSIVE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MINOR LES EVENT AND A               
MODERATE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT AS THE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR               
MOVES IN ON NNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SE FROM                
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR                
VSBY THIS EVENING. SIMILARLY...MVFR VSBY AT KSAW EARLY THIS EVENING             
WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 02-03Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO                    
CONTRIBUTE TO BLSN KEEPING VIS IFR OR LOWER INTO THU MORNING.                   
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE             
NW SHIFTING DOMINANT LES BANDS EAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE SE AND OVER LK HURON             
BY 06Z THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE                 
LOW...WITH GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LK SUPERIOR. THE             
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LK THIS             
EVENING...AS PRESSURE RISE COUPLET SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS                 
SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND GRAND                  
MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS ON THURS AFTN...AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL                 
CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY            
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING               
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.                      
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY               
     FOR MIZ085.                                                                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST                   
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ006.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                  
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY               
     FOR MIZ013.                                                                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.                       
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR                  
     LSZ266.                                                                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                 
     LSZ265.                                                                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                 
     LSZ264.                                                                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                  
     LSZ249-250.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                  
     LSZ248.                                                                    
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                  
     LSZ243>245.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                  
     LSZ263.                                                                    
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR                
     LMZ250.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JLB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...SRF/PEARSON                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SOME CLOUD COVER CONCERNS OVER THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE AVIATION              
FORECAST... BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.                   
SCATTERED CLOUDS PREDOMINATE AT THE CURRENT TIME IN THE WAKE OF                 
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY... BUT SOME                     
THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ARE                 
EVIDENT TO THE NORTH. THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS                   
AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SHOULD THIN TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY DO SO                  
WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE                 
AREA. HOWEVER... GIVEN THICK NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AT THE CURRENT              
TIME... AND THE APPEARANCE OF A CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY AXIS IN THE               
VISIBLE IMAGERY... THINK THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE                 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SITES. SO... WILL KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR BKN              
MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... ALONG WITH A                        
CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANY CEILINGS SHOULD                      
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALONG WITH THE SURFACE                  
RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE... THEN VEER LATE TONIGHT AND               
ON FRIDAY. THANKS TO CWSU ZMP FOR COLLABORATION... THEIR                        
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.                                                   
INCLUDED FROM CWSU ZMP... JUST A FEW SC CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER                   
MSP. EXPECT THAT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT                    
HOURS. SOME LOWER-LEVEL CIGS OVER NORTH MN... BUT EXPECT THOSE                  
CLOUDS TO THIN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT                   
BRIEF BKN CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT         
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                           
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS MOVING                 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO              
NEAR CALM TONIGHT.  THE GRADUAL WINDSHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION              
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS, FRIDAY.  WITH THE DRY AIR IN               
PLACE... NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER ACROSS                 
THE AREA. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A MESS WITH                    
RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE              
CWFA... AND A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTH              
OF THE AREA... WITH THE CURRENT CLEARING JUST IN THE WAKE OF THAT               
FEATURE IN A ZONE OF GOOD DNVA. THE CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT TO THE                  
NORTH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE HEART OF THE 925-850MB THERMAL                     
TROUGH... WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY... WORKING TO BRING MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN AS THE DAY                    
PROGRESSES. ALL IN ALL... WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CU               
AS THE DNVA MOVES AWAY AND WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A GOOD LOW LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER... GIVEN A GENERAL                      
DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED... OVERCAST                  
CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP... WITH MORE OF SCT-BKN                
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA                
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS... SO                  
WILL INCLUDE A BIT MORE THERE... BUT EVERYONE LOOKS TO SEE SOME                 
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE GOOD LAPSE RATES DOWN LOW...                
SOME CHANCE FOR FLURRIES REMAINS... SO WILL RETAIN A MENTION                    
EVERYWHERE BUT THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK                  
REASONABLE EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED GIVEN THE CONTINUED                 
COLD ADVECTION... SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
956 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER ACROSS                 
THE AREA. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A MESS WITH                    
RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE              
CWFA... AND A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTH              
OF THE AREA... WITH THE CURRENT CLEARING JUST IN THE WAKE OF THAT               
FEATURE IN A ZONE OF GOOD DNVA. THE CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT TO THE                  
NORTH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE HEART OF THE 925-850MB THERMAL                     
TROUGH... WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY... WORKING TO BRING MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN AS THE DAY                    
PROGRESSES. ALL IN ALL... WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CU               
AS THE DNVA MOVES AWAY AND WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A GOOD LOW LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER... GIVEN A GENERAL                      
DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED... OVERCAST                  
CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP... WITH MORE OF SCT-BKN                
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA                
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS... SO                  
WILL INCLUDE A BIT MORE THERE... BUT EVERYONE LOOKS TO SEE SOME                 
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE GOOD LAPSE RATES DOWN LOW...                
SOME CHANCE FOR FLURRIES REMAINS... SO WILL RETAIN A MENTION                    
EVERYWHERE BUT THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK                  
REASONABLE EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED GIVEN THE CONTINUED                 
COLD ADVECTION... SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
BULK OF MVFR CLOUDS AND LOW END VFR CIGS EXTEND ACROSS FAR SW MN                
INTO EC MN AND WISC... WITH RATHER PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERED                 
AROUND NRN MN AND STREAMING SOUTHWARD. RUC SEEMS TO DO THE BEST                 
JOB IN CAPTURING THIS SCENARIO. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES ARE STILL                 
SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SITES...MAINLY               
MSP... EAU AND RNH. THOUGH BEST MOISTURE DROPS INTO SERN MN AFTER               
15Z... PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH TO MERIT BKN CLOUDS AROUND                       
3500-4000 WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT                
THAT EXCITING BUT HIGHER LEVELS ARE MORE UNSTABLE. WILL KEEP SOME               
FLURRIES IN MOST TAFS MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                      
REDEVELOPMENT OF BKN SC AFTER A TAD BIT OF HEATING. CLOUDS WILL                 
DISSIPATE AND WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE MOVES IN.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 239 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                                             
THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN                 
THIS COLD PATTERN...THEN MINOR SNOW CHANCES ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN              
DURING THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                                                  
GOES WV LOOP AND THE LAST EVE 00Z RAOBS DEPICTING SHORT WAVE IN NW              
FLOW MOVING ACROSS ND AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER MID-LEVEL              
TEMPS /-34C H5 TEMP AT CYQD/. ND AND ABR 88DS HAVE INDICATED                    
NUMEROUS ECHOES WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED ALONG                    
FORWARD FLANK OF THIS WAVE. RUC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND                       
ASSOCIATED TOTAL TOTAL INDICES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE LINE UP WELL WITH THIS AREA. THIS WILL TRANSVERSE                   
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.                 
WITH MOST ND SITES HAVING RECORDED ONLY A TRACE LAST EVE AND THIS               
MORNING...HAVE CONTINUED WITH ONLY FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE              
LOWER TO MID TROP TEMPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS THE                           
AREA...BROKEN STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS              
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT...SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL                 
EXPECTED THIS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. WITH SECONDARY              
SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BL                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PREDICTED. SO HAVE TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR                 
SLIGHTLY FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CLIMB DURING               
THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS TO STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY AS                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL BE STRONG WITH ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING                
SOUTHEASTWARD.                                                                  
GOING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER                
20S NEAR SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR A STARTING POINT NEAR THE AVERAGE                
MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHEST CURRENT SFC PRESSURE UNDER                  
ARCTIC HIGH IN SASKATCHEWAN IS AN IMPRESSIVE 1048 MB. THIS IS                   
EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY TONIGHT...BUT BY OVERNIGHT                     
PRESSURES OF OVER 1040 MB EXPECTED INTO WRN CWA. THE WINDS SHOULD               
COME DOWN QUICKLY IN WRN MN THIS EVE...WHICH WITH CLEARING SKIES                
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. H8 TEMPS OVER THE                 
REGION TONIGHT TO BE IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. DESPITE NO SNOW                 
ON THE GROUND...GIVEN THOSE TEMP AND MSLP PROJECTIONS...SOME 2F                 
TO 5F MIN TEMPS FRI MORNING ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN WRN MN.                        
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT STILL BEING PROGNOSTICATED TO PASS                 
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THIS IS SO                  
CLOSE TO THE HEELS OF AN EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS...THE ASCENT              
AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA IS GREAT...HOWEVER...THE              
AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME DURATION OF THIS IS LIMITED AND IS FOCUSED              
FROM ERN SD INTO NWRN IA. SHOULD BE A FINE CUTOFF TO THE NORTHEAST              
GIVEN PREDICTED BL TDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. SO HAVE TIGHTENED                   
GRADIENT IN POPS OVER MN RIVER VALLEY EVEN MORESO ON FRI NIGHT TO               
BETTER DEPICT THIS...BUT ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING               
MORE UNLIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.                                             
THE NEXT AND POSSIBLY LAST SYSTEM IN NW FLOW TO MOVE DOWN OVER                  
THE UPPER LAKES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM SECTOR OF THIS TO                   
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO              
NEAR 40F. UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL                 
APPEAR THE BEST SCENARIO FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTHING                    
PAINTS TOWARDS ANYTHING GREAT FOR SNOW THOUGH. PRIMARILY NW FLOW                
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A               
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO WRLY OR SWRLY FLOW. STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES               
WITH THIS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A CLIPPER-              
LIKE SYSTEM FOR THANKSGIVING. WE SHALL SEE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE                 
WRN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD EVOLVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO DEC.                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/TDK/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
542 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 239 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                                             
THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN                 
THIS COLD PATTERN...THEN MINOR SNOW CHANCES ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN              
DURING THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                                                  
GOES WV LOOP AND THE LAST EVE 00Z RAOBS DEPICTING SHORT WAVE IN NW              
FLOW MOVING ACROSS ND AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER MID-LEVEL              
TEMPS /-34C H5 TEMP AT CYQD/. ND AND ABR 88DS HAVE INDICATED                    
NUMEROUS ECHOES WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED ALONG                    
FORWARD FLANK OF THIS WAVE. RUC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND                       
ASSOCIATED TOTAL TOTAL INDICES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE LINE UP WELL WITH THIS AREA. THIS WILL TRANSVERSE                   
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.                 
WITH MOST ND SITES HAVING RECORDED ONLY A TRACE LAST EVE AND THIS               
MORNING...HAVE CONTINUED WITH ONLY FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE              
LOWER TO MID TROP TEMPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS THE                           
AREA...BROKEN STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS              
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT...SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL                 
EXPECTED THIS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. WITH SECONDARY              
SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BL                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PREDICTED. SO HAVE TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR                 
SLIGHTLY FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CLIMB DURING               
THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS TO STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY AS                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL BE STRONG WITH ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING                
SOUTHEASTWARD.                                                                  
GOING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER                
20S NEAR SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR A STARTING POINT NEAR THE AVERAGE                
MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHEST CURRENT SFC PRESSURE UNDER                  
ARCTIC HIGH IN SASKATCHEWAN IS AN IMPRESSIVE 1048 MB. THIS IS                   
EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY TONIGHT...BUT BY OVERNIGHT                     
PRESSURES OF OVER 1040 MB EXPECTED INTO WRN CWA. THE WINDS SHOULD               
COME DOWN QUICKLY IN WRN MN THIS EVE...WHICH WITH CLEARING SKIES                
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. H8 TEMPS OVER THE                 
REGION TONIGHT TO BE IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. DESPITE NO SNOW                 
ON THE GROUND...GIVEN THOSE TEMP AND MSLP PROJECTIONS...SOME 2F                 
TO 5F MIN TEMPS FRI MORNING ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN WRN MN.                        
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT STILL BEING PROGNOSTICATED TO PASS                 
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THIS IS SO                  
CLOSE TO THE HEELS OF AN EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS...THE ASCENT              
AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA IS GREAT...HOWEVER...THE              
AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME DURATION OF THIS IS LIMITED AND IS FOCUSED              
FROM ERN SD INTO NWRN IA. SHOULD BE A FINE CUTOFF TO THE NORTHEAST              
GIVEN PREDICTED BL TDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. SO HAVE TIGHTENED                   
GRADIENT IN POPS OVER MN RIVER VALLEY EVEN MORESO ON FRI NIGHT TO               
BETTER DEPICT THIS...BUT ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING               
MORE UNLIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.                                             
THE NEXT AND POSSIBLY LAST SYSTEM IN NW FLOW TO MOVE DOWN OVER                  
THE UPPER LAKES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM SECTOR OF THIS TO                   
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO              
NEAR 40F. UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL                 
APPEAR THE BEST SCENARIO FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTHING                    
PAINTS TOWARDS ANYTHING GREAT FOR SNOW THOUGH. PRIMARILY NW FLOW                
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A               
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO WRLY OR SWRLY FLOW. STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES               
WITH THIS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A CLIPPER-              
LIKE SYSTEM FOR THANKSGIVING. WE SHALL SEE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE                 
WRN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD EVOLVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO DEC.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
BULK OF MVFR CLOUDS AND LOW END VFR CIGS EXTEND ACROSS FAR SW MN                
INTO EC MN AND WISC... WITH RATHER PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERED                 
AROUND NRN MN AND STREAMING SOUTHWARD. RUC SEEMS TO DO THE BEST                 
JOB IN CAPTURING THIS SCENARIO. LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES ARE STILL                 
SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SITES...MAINLY               
MSP... EAU AND RNH. THOUGH BEST MOISTURE DROPS INTO SERN MN AFTER               
15Z... PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH TO MERIT BKN CLOUDS AROUND                       
3500-4000 WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT                
THAT EXCITING BUT HIGHER LEVELS ARE MORE UNSTABLE. WILL KEEP SOME               
FLURRIES IN MOST TAFS MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH                      
REDEVELOPMENT OF BKN SC AFTER A TAD BIT OF HEATING. CLOUDS WILL                 
DISSIPATE AND WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE MOVES IN.                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
239 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN                 
THIS COLD PATTERN...THEN MINOR SNOW CHANCES ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN              
DURING THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                                                  
GOES WV LOOP AND THE LAST EVE 00Z RAOBS DEPICTING SHORT WAVE IN NW              
FLOW MOVING ACROSS ND AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER MID-LEVEL              
TEMPS /-34C H5 TEMP AT CYQD/. ND AND ABR 88DS HAVE INDICATED                    
NUMEROUS ECHOES WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED ALONG                    
FORWARD FLANK OF THIS WAVE. RUC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND                       
ASSOCIATED TOTAL TOTAL INDICES ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE LINE UP WELL WITH THIS AREA. THIS WILL TRANSVERSE                   
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.                 
WITH MOST ND SITES HAVING RECORDED ONLY A TRACE LAST EVE AND THIS               
MORNING...HAVE CONTINUED WITH ONLY FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS. WITH THE              
LOWER TO MID TROP TEMPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS THE                           
AREA...BROKEN STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS              
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT...SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL                 
EXPECTED THIS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. WITH SECONDARY              
SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BL                  
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PREDICTED. SO HAVE TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR                 
SLIGHTLY FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CLIMB DURING               
THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS TO STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY AS                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL BE STRONG WITH ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING                
SOUTHEASTWARD.                                                                  
GOING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER                
20S NEAR SUNSET...ALLOWING FOR A STARTING POINT NEAR THE AVERAGE                
MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHEST CURRENT SFC PRESSURE UNDER                  
ARCTIC HIGH IN SASKATCHEWAN IS AN IMPRESSIVE 1048 MB. THIS IS                   
EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY TONIGHT...BUT BY OVERNIGHT                     
PRESSURES OF OVER 1040 MB EXPECTED INTO WRN CWA. THE WINDS SHOULD               
COME DOWN QUICKLY IN WRN MN THIS EVE...WHICH WITH CLEARING SKIES                
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. H8 TEMPS OVER THE                 
REGION TONIGHT TO BE IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. DESPITE NO SNOW                 
ON THE GROUND...GIVEN THOSE TEMP AND MSLP PROJECTIONS...SOME 2F                 
TO 5F MIN TEMPS FRI MORNING ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN WRN MN.                        
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT STILL BEING PROGNOSTICATED TO PASS                 
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THIS IS SO                  
CLOSE TO THE HEELS OF AN EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS...THE ASCENT              
AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA IS GREAT...HOWEVER...THE              
AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME DURATION OF THIS IS LIMITED AND IS FOCUSED              
FROM ERN SD INTO NWRN IA. SHOULD BE A FINE CUTOFF TO THE NORTHEAST              
GIVEN PREDICTED BL TDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. SO HAVE TIGHTENED                   
GRADIENT IN POPS OVER MN RIVER VALLEY EVEN MORESO ON FRI NIGHT TO               
BETTER DEPICT THIS...BUT ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING               
MORE UNLIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.                                             
THE NEXT AND POSSIBLY LAST SYSTEM IN NW FLOW TO MOVE DOWN OVER                  
THE UPPER LAKES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM SECTOR OF THIS TO                   
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO              
NEAR 40F. UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL                 
APPEAR THE BEST SCENARIO FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTHING                    
PAINTS TOWARDS ANYTHING GREAT FOR SNOW THOUGH. PRIMARILY NW FLOW                
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A               
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO WRLY OR SWRLY FLOW. STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES               
WITH THIS...AND THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A CLIPPER-              
LIKE SYSTEM FOR THANKSGIVING. WE SHALL SEE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE                 
WRN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD EVOLVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO DEC.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE                 
UPPER MIDWEST PERSISTING THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT                 
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY NOON AS CEILING AND CLOUD               
HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN 3K TO 5K FEET AGL AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE               
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BECOMING VFR OVER             
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE EVENING THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT            
STILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH                  
UNIFORM WIND DIRECTION ALOFT...WIND SPEED TO STAY UP THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND PRODUCE                     
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/JVM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1007 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST                            
WISCONSIN...AS CLOUDS WILL HANG ON MUCH LONGER. THE COLDEST                     
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE BORDERLAND...WHERE SOME CLEARING                 
HAS OCCURRED...THOUGH HOW COLD IT DIPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY               
THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE...AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE GETS.                
WE ALSO DECREASED POPS DURING THE LATE EVENING IN NORTHWEST                     
WISCONSIN...THOUGH KEPT THEM UP OVERNIGHT...AS HI RES RUC HAS                   
PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER                   
ABOUT 3 AM. AS OF NOW...LIGHT SNOW IS ONLY OCCURRING/BEEN                       
REPORTED IN IRON COUNTY...AND IT HAS AMOUNTED TO VERY LITTLE...DUE              
TO QUITE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. AN OBSERVER IN                  
GILE REPORTED MAYBE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH SO FAR.                          
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE TOMORROW LATE              
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE...THE BEST                  
LIFT BECOMES CO-LOCATED WITH THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...AND                 
850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE RETURNS.                                                 
ADDITIONALLY...A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING                    
THROUGH ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH NORTHEAST                
MINNESOTA. WHILE NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...SOME OF THIS                  
SNOW IS STICKING TO THE GROUND...AS INDICATED BY A SPOTTER IN                   
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. A QUICK TENTH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FCST FOCUS ON ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LES AMOUNTS             
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NO CHANGES TO BE MADE TO                
CURRENT LES HEADLINES WHICH ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH                  
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN SFC LOW TO                
THE E AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE W OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.               
THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY                           
EVENING...WEAKENING BY FRI MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE REACHES ERN                 
MN/WRN WIS. THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP FLURRIES OR ISOLD -SHSN OVER                 
THE FA...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.                                        
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NRN WIS WHERE A NRLY FETCH AND STEEP               
LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LES...LATE TODAY              
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED SN EVENT OVER            
A 36 HR PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OF GENERALLY           
AROUND 10 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GOGEBIC RANGE OF NRN              
WIS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE.                  
AREAS INLAND OR SHELTERED FORM THE LAKE EFFECT...AS ASHLAND...CAN               
EXPECT STORM TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.                              
ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES AND FORCING SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY                   
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOME CONCERN IN THE H70-H50 DRY POCKET THAT IS               
CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON THE VIS SAT AS CLR SKIES OVER SRN MANITOBA/WRN            
ONTARIO. THE NAM 850-700 RH FIELD SHOWS THIS DRY LAYER SINKS S OVER             
NRN MN AND WRN LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...JUST AS THE COLDEST AIR                  
SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH SFC-850 MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATED AND               
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...SOME FEAR THAT THIS DRY AIR MAY SINK                  
FAR ENOUGH INTO THE LO LVLS TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN INTENSITY                
OR A TOTAL LULL IN SNOWFALL...MAINLY DURING THE 10-18Z THURS TIME               
FRAME. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WILL MENTION THE SHSN MAY                
WEAKEN OR END FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE WSW PRODUCT...BUT ATTM                    
THREAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE SIG CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL SN                      
AMOUNTS. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THE MID LVL MOISTURE DOES REBOUND BY                
THURSDAY AFTRN...SO WOULD EXPECT THE LES TO REGENERATE AND PRODUCE              
A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUM LATE THURS/THURS NIGHT...BEFORE THE                  
HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS IT OFF FOR GOOD FRI MORNING.                                
THE NAM SHOWS THAT THE MID LVL MOISTURE DOES REBOUND BY THURSDAY                
AFTRN...SO WOULD EXPECT THE LES TO REGENERATE AND PRODUCE A FEW MORE            
INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS IT OFF FOR GOOD FRI              
MORNING.                                                                        
AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY                  
DIMINISH THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON...THOUGH REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES                  
THROUGH THE TAF PD. BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH            
TO SOUTH THIS EVE...AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE UPPER                 
MIDWEST FROM CANADA. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF BY            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                            
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  13  21   5  21 /  30  10  10  10                                           
INL   5  13   1  17 /  30  10  10  10                                           
BRD  16  22   5  23 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  19  19   4  20 /  40  30  10  10                                           
ASX  19  20  12  20 /  70  60  70  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ASHLAND-IRON.           
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR            
     BAYFIELD.                                                                  
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ140-              
     LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ141-LSZ142-            
     LSZ143-LSZ144.                                                             
$$                                                                              
DONOFRIO/GSF                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1052 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE AT THE                
SURFACE LOCATED ALONG THE MS GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE            
SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                
CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM                    
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS...TO GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO COLUMBUS. WINDS              
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15-18KT WITH BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS UP             
TO 20 KTS.                                                                      
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN A LITTLE            
SLOW TO BURN OFF ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT EXPECT SUNNY SKIES             
TO RETURN TO THIS AREA TODAY.  SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES            
TO WARM UP RATHER QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.                
READINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN                
RUNNING ROUGHLY 7-9 DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED AND DECIDED TO              
BUMP HIGHS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE               
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY AROUND 18-20Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED           
WINDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR             
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND                   
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /28/                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...REMAINING STRATUS/FOG DECK OVER W CENTRAL MS/NERN LA                
ERODING RATHER QUICKLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL                 
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE             
EXCEPTION OF A 4-5HR PERIOD BEHIND THE FROPA WHEN CAA STRATOCU FIELD            
COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 2-3K FEET. THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OF 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS                    
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS                
THAN 10KTS AFTER ABOUT 10Z FRIDAY MORNING. /40/                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       68  34  49  24 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      67  30  49  20 /   0   0   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     66  35  49  27 /   0   0   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   72  35  52  25 /   0   0   0   0                                  
NATCHEZ       71  36  51  27 /   0   0   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    58  32  48  25 /   0   0   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     58  31  47  24 /   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
28/40                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1046 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...STRATUS ERODED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS          
EVENING...WITH STRATUS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN              
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST MOSTLY                  
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST AT THE KGRI TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY                   
MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING BACK IN TOWARDS                 
SUNRISE THURSDAY. CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA                 
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 3000-4000 FT AGL RANGE AND FEEL THIS WILL BE               
THE CEILING LEVEL WHEN CLOUDS REINTRODUCE THEMSELVES TO KGRI ON                 
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS                    
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH              
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                        
UPDATE...STRATUS HAS DIMINISHED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL                      
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL                  
GUIDANCE REMAINS WAY OFF WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER...RUC SEEMS                
TO HAVE A HANDLE ON STRATUS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND                     
PORTIONS OF IOWA. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES TO              
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...WITH THE RUC SUGGESTING                
CLOUDS MAY BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS                   
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND BACKED WAY OFF ON CLOUD COVER                  
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE BRINGING BACK CLOUDS                    
HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ALSO DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW                
DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AS LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT                 
WINDS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                          
UPDATE...SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA MORE QUICKLY                   
THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS AS A                 
RESULT. DID NOT ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THOSE STILL APPEAR GOOD.               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COLD AIR WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING FUNNELING                   
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS A PRETTY              
GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE AT 2 PM...RANGING                  
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT ONEIL IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO               
THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                        
COLD AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA ALL NIGHT LONG ALLOWING TEMPERATURES           
TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER                
TOMORROW AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH BACK INTO               
THE 30S TO MAYBE AROUND 40 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THERE WILL BE SOME              
MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TOMORROW MORNING THAT                  
COULD RESULT IN A FLURRY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW DRY                  
LAYERS IN THE PROFILE THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE AND                    
OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS AIRMASS IS LIMITED. THEREFORE...EVEN                 
SEEING A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. COULD SEE SOME                 
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THAT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS                  
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSEQUENTLY...OVERNIGHT               
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN MANY                    
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN                 
WILL BE TEMPERATURES.                                                           
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE            
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD              
ALSO STAY NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM SINCE LATER MODEL               
RUNS ARE BRINGING IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BRING SOME              
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                      
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW                 
MOVES TO THE EAST.                                                              
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP SOME. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER            
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ONE HAS LESS COLD AIR BEHIND            
IT AND THE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO BE AT OR A LITTLE                 
ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD                 
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.             
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP AGAIN AND A SHORT WAVE            
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY              
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1018 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...STRATUS HAS DIMINISHED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL                     
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL                  
GUIDANCE REMAINS WAY OFF WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER...RUC SEEMS                
TO HAVE A HANDLE ON STRATUS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND                     
PORTIONS OF IOWA. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES TO              
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...WITH THE RUC SUGGESTING                
CLOUDS MAY BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS                   
SUNRISE THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND BACKED WAY OFF ON CLOUD COVER                  
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE BRINGING BACK CLOUDS                    
HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ALSO DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW                
DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AS LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT                 
WINDS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                         
UPDATE...SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA MORE QUICKLY                   
THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS AS A                 
RESULT. DID NOT ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THOSE STILL APPEAR GOOD.               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                          
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...A SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS PUSHING A STRATUS DECK TOWARDS THE KGRI                   
TERMINAL AT THIS HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGRI UNTIL                
THIS DECK REACHES THE AREA AROUND 02Z...AT WHICH TIME CONDITIONS                
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY INTO MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL             
HOLD STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS              
RESUME BY LATE THURSDAY. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED                    
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO               
NEAR 25 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 04Z.                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT                 
OF COLD AIR WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING FUNNELING                   
COLD CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS A PRETTY              
GOOD SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE AT 2 PM...RANGING                  
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT ONEIL IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO               
THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                        
COLD AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA ALL NIGHT LONG ALLOWING TEMPERATURES           
TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER                
TOMORROW AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH BACK INTO               
THE 30S TO MAYBE AROUND 40 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THERE WILL BE SOME              
MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TOMORROW MORNING THAT                  
COULD RESULT IN A FLURRY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW DRY                  
LAYERS IN THE PROFILE THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE AND                    
OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS AIRMASS IS LIMITED. THEREFORE...EVEN                 
SEEING A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. COULD SEE SOME                 
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THAT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS                  
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSEQUENTLY...OVERNIGHT               
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN MANY                    
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN                 
WILL BE TEMPERATURES.                                                           
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE            
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD              
ALSO STAY NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM SINCE LATER MODEL               
RUNS ARE BRINGING IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BRING SOME              
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                      
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW                 
MOVES TO THE EAST.                                                              
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP SOME. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER            
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ONE HAS LESS COLD AIR BEHIND            
IT AND THE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO BE AT OR A LITTLE                 
ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD                 
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.             
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP AGAIN AND A SHORT WAVE            
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY              
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
125 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TODAY. A COLD FRONT              
WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO NY                
AND PA.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1210PM...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP LES ADVISORY AS OF NOON AS                  
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL SOON END...ALTHOUGH LATE MORNING                        
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SUGGEST SOME CAYUGA/SKANEATELES LAKE                       
ENHANCEMENT WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER FLUFFY INCH IN A FEW DOWNWIND                  
LOCATIONS. THE FLOW WILL GAIN AN INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT                
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE REMNANT SHSN/FLURRIES EAST               
AND GIVEN GOOD LLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WE SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTION                
BECOME MORE CELLULAR WITH TIME.                                                 
HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATE MORNING                     
TRENDS...AND THE FACT THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR HAVE                
NOT SEEN MUCH SUN THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS/GRIDS ARE OUT.                 
AS OF 840AM...ONE PRIMARY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES THIS                    
MORNING...CENTERED BETWEEN CORTLAND AND ITHACA...SOUTH INTO NE PA               
ALONG THE BRADFORD/SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY LINE. BGM VWP THIS MORNING                
SHOWS A PRETTY PERSISTENT NNW FLOW...AND THE 12Z RAOB FROM KBUF                 
INDICATES INVERSION HEIGHTS DECREASING...BUT STILL AROUND 825 MB.               
SHORT TERM NAM/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THROUGH THE MORNING                   
HOURS...THE FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN THE BL AND THIS IS              
SUPPORTED BY CURRENT MSAS ANALYSIS WHICH INDICATE VERY LITTLE IN                
THE WAY OF SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGES IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE                  
FLOW WILL WEAKEN...HOWEVER...AS THE H85 RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD...SO              
THE BAND SHOULD PULL BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE SHORE BY LATE                        
MORNING...WITH WEAKENING/DISSIPATION AS THE FLOW GOES WEAK                      
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR                 
THIS AND HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF               
THE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN IT OVERNIGHT GIVEN THAT ACCUMULATING                  
SNOWS WILL NOT PUSH BACK TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. EXPIRATION TIME              
OF THE REMAINING ADV IS NOON...WHICH LOOKS GREAT AND WILL LIKELY                
UPDATE AGAIN AS WE NEAR THAT POINT.                                             
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AS GRIDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.                
UPDATED PRODUCTS/GRIDS ARE ON THE STREET.                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
MULTIBAND LES CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN NNW FLOW OFF OF ONTARIO,                
WITH ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. WILL KEEP CURRENT                   
ADVISORY AS IS, AND FEEL THE BEST ACCUMS WILL BE FINGER LAKE                    
ENHANCED FROM TOMPKINS COUNTY DOWN THROUGH TIOGA COUNTY NY. WINDS               
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TODAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM, CUTTING OFF THE                 
LAKE FLOW.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
IMPRESSIVE COLD SHOT TO FOLLOW WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT AND                  
THURSDAY. WHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY, THERE IS A GOOD               
DEAL OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD AID THE                
PRECIP AMOUNTS AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WHIP ACROSS ONTARIO AND                   
ERIE. WILL FORECAST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY WEST OF I-81,                  
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST.                                                       
ONCE THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH, THE POLAR AIR IS RELOADED. THIS                 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND WINTER-LIKE. THE COLD              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE WARM LAKE WATERS WILL ACTIVATE LES ONCE                  
MORE, WITH LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FORECAST TO FALL THROUGH AT LEAST                  
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT NO POINT DOES THE INSTABILITY LOOK STRONG ENOUGH               
TO SUGGEST A MAJOR EVENT. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT                
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IS EXPECTED              
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                 
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN ANCHORED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGHOUT        
THE PERIOD. DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW THIS TROUGH                       
AMPLIFIES/RE-LOADS EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAD TO OBVIOUS MODEL TO MODEL               
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATON OCCURS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.               
FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS WILL              
WIND DOWN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS BRIEF               
LULL...THINGS GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE               
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STORM SYSTEM MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE NEAR                
THE EAST COAST. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL                    
RETAIN OUR CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL/SNOW SHOWERS                
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT                
KBGM AND KITH...AS A WEAKENING LAKE SNOW BAND REMAINS IN THE                    
VICINITY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.             
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY (ROUGHLY 06Z TO 15Z)...A FAST                  
MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME                
LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL HOLD FOR                  
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS                    
(MVFR) LOOK TO BE AT KELM AND KITH.                                             
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME LIGHT                      
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-10 KT THURSDAY.                 
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR                       
POSSIBLE...AS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.                   
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR FORESEEN.                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...DJP/JMA                                                             
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...MLJ                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
645 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TODAY... AS            
A POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING               
TEMPERATURES WELL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
THROUGH TODAY: UP FIRST IS THE BANK OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS UP                 
AROUND 700 MB OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THESE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY                
PICKED UP ON BY YESTERDAY`S MODELS BETTER THAN THE LATEST RUNS...               
AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS CLOUD DECK LIKELY HAS MUCH TO DO WITH            
THE MODELS` POOR DETECTION OF IT. THE LATEST MODELS KICK THE 700 MB             
WARM FRONT TO THE ENE AND TAKE THESE CLOUDS WITH IT IN THE COUPLE               
OF HOURS... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUC IS SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER AND                 
AGREES BETTER WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. WILL HANG ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY                
SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FAR NE CWA WITH A QUICK IMPROVING               
TREND SOON AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF                    
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. THEN... OUR EYES DRIFT TO THE COLD FRONT DUE             
TO DROP THROUGH NC THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RATHER             
UNEVENTFUL... AND WE SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE            
WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO WNW BEFORE THE MAIN SLUG OF COLD AIR             
ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF THE POLAR FRONT... NOW STRETCHING ACROSS WI             
AND IA... LATE IN THE DAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONDITIONS                     
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM INDICATE LITTLE CLOUDINESS IN OUR AREA UNTIL               
AFTER DARK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES HEAD UP OVER 1330 M ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON... AND HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS HERE TO THE             
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. READINGS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS             
THE NORTH AS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED... AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH              
LOCAL HIGH TEMPERATURE TOOLS BUT IS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE                      
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.                                                           
FOR TONIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A MUCH CLOUDIER PERIOD THAN                  
EARLIER THOUGHT... AND THE RISK OF A FLURRY OR TWO APPEARS TO BE ON             
THE RISE... IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...                    
PARTICULARLY THE GFS... SHOW NEAR SATURATION IN A DEEP LAYER FROM               
AROUND 800 MB UP THROUGH 550 MB DROPPING THROUGH THE CWA FROM 04Z TO            
12Z. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER SD... THIS             
VERTICAL AND AREAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. THE            
GFS IN PARTICULAR RAMPS UP THE LIFT NICELY TOO... AS IT BRINGS THE              
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM (NOW PUSHING INTO ND) A BIT FARTHER                 
SOUTH INTO NRN NC AND FASTER (BEFORE 12Z) AS COMPARED TO THE NAM.               
UPPER JET FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                  
REGION OF THE 120+ KT JET IS EVIDENT OVER NC ON BOTH THE NAM AND                
GFS.  CONSIDERING THAT THE MOISTURE WILL SPAN THE DEPTH OF THE PRIME            
CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE... AND GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILE             
WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING... A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...            
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DRYNESS OF THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD HOLD            
IT TO NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES... AND TONIGHT WE`LL BE LACKING THE            
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY THAT HELPED PRODUCE                
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THEN. ANY FLURRIES SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND             
SUNRISE AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT QUICKLY. HAVE INCHED LOWS UP A BIT            
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST... AND WE NOW HAVE LOWS OF 29-34. -GIH              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: FORECAST IN ONE WORD... COLD. THE MID LEVEL            
TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY... AND A POLAR SOURCE              
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HEAD DOWN              
BELOW -10C AGAIN... AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT BELOW 1270             
METERS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE               
FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW FLAT STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH HEATING... BUT               
THIS SHOULD DO LITTLE TO TEMPER THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.                  
EXPECT HIGHS OF 40-46. BRISK WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE LIKELY AND MAY             
GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH IF WE CAN FULLY TAP UP THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER.            
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET... AND WHILE THEY WILL BE LIGHT                
THROUGH THE NIGHT... THEY SHOULD NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. BUT EVEN               
SO... WITH THESE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND WITH SURFACE DEW               
POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 10F... LOWS AROUND 20 TO THE            
LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. RDU`S RECORD LOW COULD BE                
THREATENED BUT GSO`S IS SAFER (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). A FEW                
UPPER TEENS IN SHELTERED AREAS ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY.                          
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD AND              
THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT                  
FARTHER ALOFT... WHAT IS NOW A STRONG LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC              
NORTHWEST DIVES QUICKLY TO THE ESE... DAMPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS            
IT APPROACHES NC. BUT NEVERTHELESS THIS SHOULD STILL BRING IN                   
APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO NC SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON FROM THE NW... AND NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT ON THIS. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE              
EVENING. THICKNESSES START TO REBOUND AS THE 850 MB WARM FRONT HEADS            
TO OUR NE AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER... HARDLY                  
NOTICEABLE THOUGH GIVEN THE FRIGID START TO THE DAY. CLOUD COVER                
SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH                  
EXITS. FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S STILL LOOK GOOD. -GIH                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND BROAD (BUT WEAK) RIDGING IN             
THE MID LEVELS. THICKNESSES REBOUND INTO THE 1290-1300 METER                    
RANGE... STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER... AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS             
STILL ABOUT 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL... 51-56. OUR NEXT WEATHER                
SYSTEM OF INTEREST... A POLAR VORTEX... DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST            
SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS STARTS TO              
BECOME CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENS... AS THE SURFACE HIGHS SHIFTS                  
OFFSHORE. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT            
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS              
26-32.                                                                          
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE                
COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT             
THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. WILL SHOW               
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS OF 54-61 AS THICKNESSES            
ACTUALLY APPROACH NORMAL. WILL RAISE POPS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT TO GOOD            
CHANCE. LOWS 35-40. THE 00Z/20 ECMWF THEN BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER             
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE VORTEX... TRACKING IT ACROSS WV TO                   
DELMARVA BY LATE TUESDAY... WHILE THE 00Z/20 GFS TAKES A PA/NJ                  
TRACK... ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT. WILL MAKE NO                       
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT... HOLDING ONTO THE EXIT OF             
POPS TUESDAY MORNING AND A DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL                       
TEMPERATURES. -GIH                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL               
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST             
WILL USHER SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH                
EARLY FRIDAY (09-10Z)... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH                  
CENTRAL REGION...INT/GSO/RDU... LINGERING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH               
...FAY AND RWI THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH             
THE AREA... LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND                    
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH                
EARLY FRIDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.                              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE              
TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINAS WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS              
AT 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON... TAPERING OFF BY            
EARLY SATURDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 22:                                                    
RDU....23 (1987)                                                                
GSO....17 (2000)                                                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RHJ                                                                  
CLIMATE...GIH                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
901 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.                 
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST...TEMPERATURES                  
HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY. DAY SHIFT INDICATED THIS MAY BE A                     
PROBLEM AND HAD ALREADY LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE                   
EASTERN CWA. IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO DROP THEM A BIT                         
MORE...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT              
FORECAST LOWS. WENT AROUND 5 BELOW FROM EASTERN BOTTINEAU AND                   
NORTHERN PIERCE...NORTH AND EAST THROUGH ROLETTE COUNTY. WE WILL                
NEED TO CUT TEMPERATURES FARTHER WEST (CENTRAL ND) ALSO...AS THERE              
IS LITTLE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS                    
PICKING UP IN THE FAR WEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL              
OFF TOO MUCH THERE.                                                             
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC...AND 18Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF...IT LOOKS LIKE               
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR               
WEST BEFORE 12Z. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS ARE INDICATING                
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA WITH LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL YOU GET WEST OF HAVRE AND BILLINGS. 18Z                
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE               
WEST THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE...THINK WE CAN GET RID OF THE SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                       
SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO               
ONGOING GRID PACKAGE. BUMPED SOME POPS DOWN ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE               
AND LIFT ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND DOWNGRADED TO FLURRIES IN MY EAST.            
STAYED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN COORDINATION WITH WESTERN NEIGHBORS.               
ENERGY FROM BAY OF ALASKA LOW NOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON            
FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS              
IN AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH                
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT HPC QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DESKS HAVE                  
BACKED OFF A BIT WITH ACCUMULATIONS WITH ONLY 1 PLUS OVER THAT                  
REGION. HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT IN AGREEMENT BUT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL            
STILL ROUND TO 2 INCHES IN PLACES AND THAT SEEMS POSSIBLE.                      
WEAK PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL SWING WINDS TO THE                
SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER MAIN ENERGY AND LIFT REMAIN NORTH OF                        
BORDER ESPECIALLY ON NAM MODEL SOLUTION. DROPPED SLIGHT CHANCE                  
PORTIONS NORTHEAST TO FLURRIES BUT TO REMAIN IN COORDINATION WITH               
WESTERN NEIGHBORS LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE THERE...THIS MAY BE REVISITED              
WITH NEXT MODEL RUN.                                                            
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                       
GFS AND EUROPEAN AGAIN LOOKING SIMILAR IN THE BEGINNING OF THE                  
EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY WILL SEE THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS A LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES            
AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A MORE ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH            
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.                   
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THIS MORNING`S               
EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW OF THE                     
WESTERLIES THAT MOVES EAST QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA.              
THE GFS HOWEVER DIGS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS IT FARTHER               
SOUTH - ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. THE             
HYDROMET PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND                        
EUROPEAN...AND MENTIONED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS               
PREFERRED. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...WITH SUCH                       
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR DAYS 6/7. IF FUTURE              
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE AND DEVELOP IT FARTHER               
SOUTH...THEN LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY SHOW A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.                                                       
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.                
AVIATION...                                                                     
COOL SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE               
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. MVFR BROKEN CLOUDS              
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER              
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO                 
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH 3-5 MILES VSBYS WILL BE SCATTERED                  
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS                   
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN CLEARING SKIES ALL             
AREAS UNTIL AFTER 09-12Z WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS             
OVER WYOMING TONIGHT AND BRINGS MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH                
SNOW TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING TO                   
CENTRAL ND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TWH                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
944 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER                    
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...EXTENDING DOWN INTO LOW COUNTY. WITH                   
STRONG CAA...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS AS THEY WILL STILL              
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY. SEEING SOME SNOW REPORTS AS FAR WEST              
AS HALLOCK...SO CURRENT WX/POP GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD. MAX TEMPS                 
HAVE PRETTY MUCH OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS               
USING RUC GUIDANCE IS WORKING OUT WELL. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO              
GRIDS THIS MORNING WILL BE BUMPING UP 15Z SKY COVER TO 100 PER                  
CENT AND TRENDING DOWN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                     
WILL SEND UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES BY 10 AM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT MVFR OVC DECK TO SLOWLY SEE SOME BREAKS THROUGH OOZ.                     
NORTHEAST FA SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP EARLIEST...AS EVIDENT ON                  
CURRENT VIS IMAGERY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL RISE TO VFR CIGS AROUND                 
3500 TO 4000 FEET THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BJI WHICH                
MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT CURRENT TAF PD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
620 AM EST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CLOUDS WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                   
MOVES EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DROP ACROSS              
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...USHERING IN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE                 
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MUCH BELOW NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC HI PRES RIDGE ALREADY SHIFTING TO EAST OF OH VLY THIS MRNG                  
WITH LIGHT SRLY FLO DVLPG ACRS THE REGION. MID/HI LVL CLOUDS IN                 
ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVER NRN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD                
THE FCST AREA THRU DAYBREAK. COLDEST MRNG SO FAR THIS FALL IN                   
PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND L20S. INCREASING CLOUDS              
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FURTHER FROM CURRENT (08Z)                  
READINGS.                                                                       
INCREASING S/SW FLO ACRS THE OH VLY TODAY AS REGION BECOMES                     
SITUATED BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI AND AFOREMENTIONED AND APPCHG SFC                
LO TO NORTHWEST. PRESENCE OF TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT SHOULD ENSURE              
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS THRU THE DAY. OF GREATER SCRUTINY WILL               
BE HOW CLOUD COVER SHAKES OUT ACRS REGION TODAY WITH LO LVL WAA                 
DVLPG AHEAD OF SFC LO AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT. OF PARTICULAR                      
INTEREST THIS MRNG IS AREA OF SC/AC ACRS ERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS IN               
REGION OF LO LVL CONV AND 285-290K ISENT LIFT. THIS AREA OF LOWER               
CIGS SHOULD SPREAD E/SE TO ENCOMPASS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA BY LATE                  
MRNG HOURS. MODELS ALL HANDLE ISENT LIFT A BIT DIFFERENTLY...                   
GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH MORE EXPANSIVE AND DEEPER WITH ISENT LIFT BTWN               
285-300K. RUC/NAM MEANWHILE INDCG LESS COVERAGE AND PUSHING                     
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THRU FCST AREA MORE QUICKLY WITH                         
POSSIBILITY AT INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE AFTN.                
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF AVAIL MODEL DATA AND FOCUSED MSTLY CLDY                   
SKIES ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA FOR BETTER PART OF DAY WHERE DEEPEST               
MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE INDICATED PTLY                 
CLDY SKIES WITH AC DECK LKLY TO BE MAIN CIG LVL. SHOULD GFS SOLN                
BE REALIZED...ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS PORTION OF THE FCST                  
AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS DURING THE LATE               
MRNG/ERLY AFTN. DO EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE PRIOR TO              
SUNSET THIS EVNG.                                                               
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING SFC LO TRACK THRU CNTRL GRT LKS TO A POSN              
NEAR KERI IN NW PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z THURS. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL               
PASS THRU FCST AREA THIS EVNG DRY WITH LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE                  
BNDRY LYR MOISTURE. SC DECK WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT IN               
WAKE OF FROPA AS INITIAL CAA SETS IN. GFS IN PARTICULAR TRYING TO               
SET UP LK MICHIGAN -SHSN DVLPMNT AS EARLY AS 06-12Z TIMEFRAME ACRS              
WEST CNTRL OH AS LO LVL WIND DIR VEERS TO 290-300 DEG. FEEL DVLPMNT             
OF FAVORABLE LO LVL FLO IS A TOUCH TOO FAST AND WITH 850 TEMPS AT               
-10 TO -8C BY THURS MRNG...BNDRY LYR LKLY TO NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR              
-SHSN TO MAKE IT INTO NRN FCST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED CHC FLURRIES               
LATE NORTH OF I-70.                                                             
TEMPS...DESPITE S/SW WINDS AND WAA ACRS OH VLY TODAY...CLOUDS WILL              
BE THE DECIDING FACTOR WRT AFTN HIGHS. ONCE AGAIN APPEARS MODEL                 
GUID STILL DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON LO LVL THERMAL PROFILES               
AND CONSEQUENTLY IS TOO WARM WITH FCST HIGHS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY              
3-5 DEG ACRS THE BOARD...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U30S NORTH TO              
THE L40S SOUTH. CONSIDERING COLD START THIS MRNG IF CLOUDS ARE                  
MORE EXPANSIVE AND HANG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...FCST TEMPS WOULD                  
NEED TO BE SHAVED EVEN FURTHER WITH MUCH OF THE FCST AREA STAYING               
BELOW 40 DEG. CLOSE TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE                  
U20S.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
COLDER AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACRS REGION THURS AS UPR                  
TROF RELOADS ACRS GRT LKS. LO LVL CAA WILL CYCLE THRU THE DAY                   
THURS WITH PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR BEING DRIVEN SOUTHEAST INTO                 
THE FCST AREA. ALL SIGNS POINT TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY BECOMING WELL              
DVLPD BY THE AFTN HOURS AS SVRL MID LVL S/WVS DROP THRU THE MEAN                
TROF ACRS THE LWR GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK AWFULLY FAMILIAR                
TO MON WITH INCREASING CAA PRODUCING STEEP LO LVL LAPSE RATES AND               
SHALLOW INSTABILITY. LO LVL WIND FIELDS SUPPORT LK MICHIGAN SNOW                
BANDS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NRN 1/2 FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN                  
HOURS. WILL CARRY SCT -SHSN FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE OHIO                
RIVER WITH FLURRIES AND/OR SCHC -SHSN OVER FAR SW FCST AREA.                    
TRAILING SFC TROF AND STRONGER MID LVL S/WV WILL DROP ACRS REGION               
THURS NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP -SHSN GOING THRU THE NIGHT.                         
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AS NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODEL CONSENSUS                  
INDCG A VEERING OF THE LO LVL WINDS THRU 850MB TO A MORE N/NW DIR.              
SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION...ENHANCED LK MICHIGAN BANDING WOULD               
FOCUS ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA AND THE CVG METRO IN PARTICULAR.                   
WHILE THE DETAILS WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24                  
HOURS...THIS SUGGESTS THAT SCT -SHSN WILL AFFECT ENTIRE FCST AREA               
ALL NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS EVERYWHERE AS A RESULT.                             
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRI AS WELL AS UPR TROF IS                 
SLOW TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS              
INDCG A SLOW BACKING OF LO LVL WIND FIELDS AS BROAD SFC HI TO WEST              
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO OH VLY. THIS SHOULD SHIFT MUCH OF THE -SHSN              
ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AND                  
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE ACRS WEST CNTRL/CNTRL OH. WITH 850 TEMPS                
AT -14C...COMBINATION OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND STEEP LO LVL                   
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS THRU MID AFTN.               
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACRS FCST AREA...SHOULD SEE FLURRIES/ISOLD               
-SHSN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH INCREASING BREAKS IN CLOUDS DURING                
THE AFTN HOURS. ANY LK MICHIGAN INFLUENCE WILL BE CUT OFF BY                    
LATE FRI AFTN AS LO LVL WINDS BACK TO WRLY. SFC HI PRES WILL THEN               
BUILD ACRS THE OH VLY FRI NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.                            
TEMPS...UNDERCUT MOS GUID THRU THE PERIOD. WITH CLOUDS AND SCT                  
-SHSN THURS...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M30S. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN               
COLDER ON FRI WITH POSSIBILITY THAT NRN 1/2 FCST AREA DOES NOT GET              
ABV FREEZING LVL. AREAS NORTH OF I-70 POTENTIALLY MAY NOT EVEN GET              
OUT OF THE 20S. COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR LOOK POISED TO               
TAKE PLACE FRI NIGHT WITH ENTIRE FCST AREA LKLY TO DROP INTO THE                
TEENS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS HAVING A                    
DIFFICULT TIME WITH MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING ACRS REGION SATURDAY IN               
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS FEATURE LIKELY TO ONLY BRING AN               
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SATURDAY. A                
POTENT CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A               
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE                
LOW.                                                                            
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL            
REMAIN IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY. 40S ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS                
ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY                
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION                
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z. WAA AHEAD OF                  
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SPILL VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW TO              
MID LVL MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN                  
IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z. THEREAFTER...AS THE COLD              
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD                
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON THE                 
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TODAY...BECOMING LOCALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 20               
KNOTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY              
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                    
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.               
MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO/RYAN                                                       
AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
911 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ABOUT THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED TONIGHT IS HOW                  
LOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL GO. WITH A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS                  
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS UNDERCUT                 
MAV GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. CURRENTLY...                          
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AS WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE                 
REGION. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS BOTH SHOW WINDS VERY SLOW TO              
DIE OUT. HOWEVER... ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF CALM                  
CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR TEMPERATURES TO CRATER. THEREFOR THE              
FORECAST IS EXTREMELY WIND-DEPENDENT TONIGHT. SHOULD WINDS REMAIN               
UP... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE FORECAST MINIMUMS. THAT                
SAID... WILL HOLD FAST WITH PRIOR FORECAST... THEREFORE NO UPDATE               
IS PLANNED THIS EVENING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   23  46  31  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FSM   24  48  25  54 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MLC   23  48  29  56 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BVO   18  46  23  53 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FYV   18  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BYV   18  42  21  50 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MKO   22  47  26  51 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MIO   19  45  27  52 /   0   0   0   0                                          
F10   23  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0                                          
HHW   27  51  29  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-                
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-                   
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-                   
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.                                 
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-                
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...06                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1116 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...DRY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
WINDS ARE THE STORY...WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET                 
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY. JET MAKES SHARP ANGLE WITH TYPICALLY LIGHT              
SURFACE WINDS AT PNC...BUT SPEEDS - AND HEIGHT OF THE JET PER RUC               
AND 0430 UTC TAMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING FROM OKC - SUGGEST LLWS IS NOT              
NEEDED. WILL WATCH CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM                      
PREVIOUS TAFS EXCEPT TO BRING NORTH WINDS THROUGH A FEW MORE SITES              
WED EVENING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK TONIGHT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.          
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTHEAST WHERE LIGHTER WINDS DURING           
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS         
MAY ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NW OK BEFORE SUNRISE OTHERWISE TEMPS          
MAY NOT FALL TO FORECAST LOWS. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE                     
EXTENDED BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IF                 
NEW NAM IS CORRECT WITH STRENGTH AND POSITION OF COLD CANADIAN                  
HIGH.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  72  41  53 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         39  72  38  52 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  79  43  54 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           37  70  32  47 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     40  69  35  51 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         38  72  44  61 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/22/22                                                                        
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
908 AM MST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUING TO                
PUSH S/SW ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WHITE RIVER TO KPHP TO JUST NORTH             
AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LATEST RUC SHOWS THIS DECK MOVING INTO             
THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND STRETCHING INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST                 
WYOMING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON             
AND TWEAK THE STRATUS DECK TIMING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS              
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [235 AM MST]...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE                
ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE CNTRL U.S./CNDN BORDER. THIS IS PUSHING A               
COLD FRONT THRU THE NRN PLAINS...AND BASED ON SFC ANALYSIS IT IS                
ALREADY NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. LOW CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH WITH THE                
COLD PUSH AND WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY.                            
TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWFA THIS MRNG WITH HIGH              
TEMPS BEING REALIZED RATHER EARLY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING TO                
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY LATE AFTN. NO PCPN IS CURRENTLY BEING            
OBSERVED WITH THE ASSOCD LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SWD ACRS ND SO BELIEVE            
A DRY FCST IS BEST.                                                             
TONIGHT...A BAND OF OVERUNNING SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACRS MT AND             
SLIDE SEWD INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET               
STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION FROM            
THE BLKHLS WWD...BUT EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND TOO SHORT IN                   
DURATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN THAT.                                      
THURSDAY...PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE MRNG WITH CLEARING                 
SKIES FROM THE NORTH AS SFC RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS.                
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS EVEN MORE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING AT OR BELOW              
FREEZING ALL DAY.                                                               
FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE RACING              
EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL AID IN SOME TEMP RECOVERY                  
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WRN ZONES WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.              
EXPECT A BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST ACRS OUR CWFA AS               
WLY FLOW OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SFC.                                    
EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW AGREEING A BIT BETTER WITH            
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG                 
UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO                   
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE            
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS FAR                 
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                  
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL              
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS              
AS A CLOUD DECK CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING                
COLD FRONT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.               
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1139 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/18Z TAFS/                                                                      
COLD FRONT IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...AND                 
HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU METRO. WINDS WERE VIRTUALLY CALM AHEAD OF                
THE FRONT...BUT INCREASED QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER FROPA.                 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH              
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH. KACT WINDS ARE ALSO ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE                 
NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO                     
INCREASE EVEN MORE AROUND 19Z AT ALL TAF SITES...AND CONTINUE                   
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. TRANSITIONED WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND                 
DROPPED SPEEDS TO AROUND 10-20 KTS AROUND 3Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS                
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO REGION. EXPECT THOSE VALUES TO HOLD THRU               
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.                              
77/TDUD                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS WITH MANY FROPA DAYS...TEMPS AND WINDS HAVE A WAY OF STRAYING                
FROM HOURLY GRID VALUES. A SECOND UPDATE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY                 
RAISES MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPS. AGREE WITH RUC VALUES WHICH                  
SHOW SOME MODERATING OF THE COLD AIR WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW                      
HUMIDITY...POSTFRONTAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A BIT BEFORE                   
LOSING STEAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...BLUSTERY WINDS                  
WILL ASSURE A CHILLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF              
OF CWA...WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND GRASS FIRE DANGER WILL               
BE HIGH. THIN PATCH OF CLOUDS AT THE BASE OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION              
WILL CONTINUE SKIRTING WESTERN ZONES...BUT DUE TO BRIEF NATURE...               
WILL NOT AFFECT SKY WORDING. FULL UPDATE OF ZFP AND ALL OTHER                   
PRODUCTS GOING OUT NOW.                                                         
25                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
257 AM                                                                          
WIND SHIFT LINE IS NEAR A ROSWELL-LUBBOCK-FORT SMITH LINE AT 08Z                
WITH THE TRUE COLD AIR JUST PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS.  THIS LAG              
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE TO WARM UP SOME 3 TO 4 HOURS BEHIND THE WIND              
SHIFT BEFORE THE MAIN COLD AIR ARRIVES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED            
AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND DEEP LIFT IS ABSENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE             
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.               
ADD THIS TO OUR DRY FUELS AND THE GRASS FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED              
FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO EMORY LINE. THIS AIRMASS            
IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER FREEZE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF FRIDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY               
CLOUDY SKIES. ISENTROPIC RETURN FLOW WILL EXIST SATURDAY THROUGH                
SUNDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS               
THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD              
FRONT NEARS SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL INCREASE AND               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF BEFORE DAYBREAK               
MONDAY AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY...SEVERE               
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FAIR AND SEASONAL TUESDAY AND                       
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
CURRENTLY MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OFF              
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SOUTHERN ROCKIES LEE-SIDE SYSTEM            
THAT COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY AND                  
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AFTERWARD.                                             
75                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  35  52  37  58 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
WACO, TX              66  36  53  39  59 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
PARIS, TX             57  29  48  31  53 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
DENTON, TX            57  30  50  35  58 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          58  30  51  33  56 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
DALLAS, TX            60  35  52  38  58 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
TERRELL, TX           63  34  52  38  55 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         68  33  52  37  56 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            70  37  53  40  57 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
77/25                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1126 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL                      
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING ROUGHLY IN THE         
15G25 KT RANGE BY 21-22Z. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ON               
THE CAPROCK HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF LOW STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS                   
ACROSS KANSAS AND THE OKLA PANHANDLE WILL WORK SOUTH INTO THE AREA              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK               
UP AS IT MOVES SOUTH SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF                
CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP SKY SCATTERED IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT                        
POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT/NEAR EITHER                  
TERMINAL FOR A PERIOD FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 03Z. THE WIND WILL BECOME               
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO COME AROUND                
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF KLBB AND KCDS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING                
SOUTH TOWARDS KLBB. TIMING CLOUDS USING SATELLITE BRINGS OVERCAST               
1400 FEET AGL DECK TO KLBB JUST AFTER 13Z...SIMILAR TO LATEST RUC               
MODEL RUN. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KCDS MAY BRIEFLY CIG AROUND 1500-2000                
FEET AGL NEAR 13Z...BUT ARE MUCH MORE SHREDDED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD               
ERODE AT KLBB BY ABOUT 17Z USING MODEL INTERPOLATION...BUT TIMING               
IS UNCERTAIN PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. WINDS ALREADY INCREASING              
TO OVER 20 KTS AND WITH TIGHT INITIAL PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD REACH             
SUSTAINED 23-25KTS GUSTS 32-34 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID                
MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER AFTER THAT. MCQUEEN                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SURGING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND                   
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL CLEAR ENTIRE AREA BY DAYBREAK. A             
LOW CLOUD DECK IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN                 
PANHANDLE...THOUGH A BIT MORE BROKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                      
PANHANDLE. THE RUC13 AND NAM12 SEEM WELL INITIALIZED AND ARE SIMILAR            
DEPICTING A CLOUD LAYER AT THE H850MB LAYER DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD                
MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. SATURATION LAYER OVER THE                   
ROLLING PLAINS APPEARS LESS PRONOUNCED. MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE            
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...BUT WRF/NAM SUGGESTS LAYER               
MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NEWEST                  
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A NOTCH COOLER ANYWAY...AND CHOSE              
TO LOWER ANOTHER NOTCH OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES GIVEN LOW CLOUD                  
OPPORTUNITY. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK INTO WINDY              
CATEGORY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SPEEDS JUST SHORT OF WIND                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON WITH A  WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.                                     
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT              
WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT.            
THIS SHOULD ASSIST IN DE-COUPLING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE             
PROFILE AND ALLOW A CHILLY NIGHT TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW             
CLOUDS MAY THREATEN REFORMING NEAR WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN ZONES                
AGAIN EARLY...BUT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS MORE ISENTROPIC LOWER                    
ATMOSPHERIC DOWNGLIDE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A BIT OF MOSTLY THIN                
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER SURFACE             
TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS. MCQUEEN                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY                
BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROUGH DURG THE DAY...AS A SFC LOW                     
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVG H50                    
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING EAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.                
AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE               
TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON FRI AFTN ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS WILL                
FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA TO WARM SEVERAL DEGS FM                     
THURSDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ONLY EXPERIENCING A                   
SLIGHT RISE.                                                                    
FOR THE WEEKEND...NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A SFC LEE                  
TROUGH ACRS THE REGION PROMOTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMEST                    
READINGS WILL BE REALIZED SUNDAY AS A H85 THERMAL RIDGE                         
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/COLD                 
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS ON                  
SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR              
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE TUES AND WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. STILL APPEARS THAT THANKSGIVING              
DAY WILL BE NICE AND MILD...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBLY               
OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...                 
WHICH COULD BRING SOME WEATHER CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        41  19  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         44  21  50  27  61 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     46  22  50  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     49  20  52  26  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       49  23  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   49  22  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    50  21  52  27  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     49  26  50  28  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
SPUR          50  22  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     52  22  52  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/99/99                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1106 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS WITH MANY FROPA DAYS...TEMPS AND WINDS HAVE A WAY OF STRAYING                
FROM HOURLY GRID VALUES. A SECOND UPDATE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY                 
RAISES MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPS. AGREE WITH RUC VALUES WHICH                  
SHOW SOME MODERATING OF THE COLD AIR WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW                      
HUMIDITY...POSTFRONTAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A BIT BEFORE                   
LOSING STEAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...BLUSTERY WINDS                  
WILL ASSURE A CHILLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF              
OF CWA...WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND GRASS FIRE DANGER WILL               
BE HIGH. THIN PATCH OF CLOUDS AT THE BASE OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION              
WILL CONTINUE SKIRTING WESTERN ZONES...BUT DUE TO BRIEF NATURE...               
WILL NOT AFFECT SKY WORDING. FULL UPDATE OF ZFP AND ALL OTHER                   
PRODUCTS GOING OUT NOW.                                                         
25                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A CARLSBAD...WICHITA FALLS...TO                 
MCALESTER LINE AT 430 AM.  THE STRONGER WINDS LAGGED THE WIND SHIFT             
LINE BY ABOUT 30 MILES.                                                         
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE COLD FRONT TO THE METROPLEX TAF                 
SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO A COUPLE HOURS LATER.  A LIGHT                
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH             
THE FRONT.  THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD LAG THE WIND SHIFT BY AN HOUR            
OR TWO.  WILL CARRY A PREVAILING NORTH WIND AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH                
SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE            
AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 14 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY             
FRIDAY MORNING.                                                                 
OTHERWISE VFR WITH ONLY SOME POST FRONTAL FEW/SCATTERED CU.                     
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
257 AM                                                                          
WIND SHIFT LINE IS NEAR A ROSWELL-LUBBOCK-FORT SMITH LINE AT 08Z                
WITH THE TRUE COLD AIR JUST PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS.  THIS LAG              
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE TO WARM UP SOME 3 TO 4 HOURS BEHIND THE WIND              
SHIFT BEFORE THE MAIN COLD AIR ARRIVES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED            
AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND DEEP LIFT IS ABSENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE             
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.               
ADD THIS TO OUR DRY FUELS AND THE GRASS FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED              
FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO EMORY LINE. THIS AIRMASS            
IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER FREEZE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF FRIDAY                
MORNING.                                                                        
SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY               
CLOUDY SKIES. ISENTROPIC RETURN FLOW WILL EXIST SATURDAY THROUGH                
SUNDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS               
THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD              
FRONT NEARS SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL INCREASE AND               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF BEFORE DAYBREAK               
MONDAY AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY...SEVERE               
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FAIR AND SEASONAL TUESDAY AND                       
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
CURRENTLY MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OFF              
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SOUTHERN ROCKIES LEE-SIDE SYSTEM            
THAT COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY AND                  
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AFTERWARD.                                             
75                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  35  52  37  58 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
WACO, TX              66  36  53  39  59 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
PARIS, TX             57  29  48  31  53 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
DENTON, TX            57  30  50  35  58 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
MCKINNEY, TX          58  30  51  33  56 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
DALLAS, TX            60  35  52  38  58 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
TERRELL, TX           63  34  52  38  55 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
CORSICANA, TX         68  33  52  37  56 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
TEMPLE, TX            70  37  53  40  57 /   0   0   0   5   5                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
77/25                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
842 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND                    
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE                
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE PLAINS AREAS THE WIND SHOULD                  
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE GAP                
AREAS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINOUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW                     
WARNING CRITERIA. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED                  
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                  
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A DENVER CITY LINE TO JAYTON LINE. THE COLD                  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE LATEST RUC13                 
MODEL HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.                        
OVERALL...THE INHERITED SET OF TAFS HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL. WE              
STILL EXPECT A DECK OF STRATOCU TO MOVE SOUTH/DEVELOP THIS                      
MORNING...WITH ALL BUT KFST EXPECTED TO SEE A TEMPORARY ROUND OF                
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. AVAILABLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE              
MAY MIX/DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE TRANS PECOS                         
REGION...INCLUDING KFST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A SCT DECK AT                  
KFST...BUT HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE BKN LAYER. WE HAVE ALSO                     
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY AT AREA TERMINALS BASED ON THE LATEST                  
RUC13 DATA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                 
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL REMOVE MENTION OF GUSTS AT ALL SITES               
IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS.              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE PERMIAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE           
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND            
BY SUNSET. WINDY AND MARKEDLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS              
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROPPING INTO                
THE 20S MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD                   
COVER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES LATE                
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS                 
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.                                    
COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG EXPANSIVE AREA OF                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE COLD AIR MASS IN                  
PLACE FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S AND               
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.              
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM/MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS                
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND                
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.                                
THE NEXT VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN                   
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUNDAY...                 
DRIVING ANOTHER DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN               
BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS               
COOL NOR CONDITIONS NOT AS WINDY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE               
MAIN COLD SURGE WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL TO OUR               
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              50  26  51  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                52  26  54  31  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  63  33  52  37  /   0   0   0  10                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  28  55  39  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  24  47  36  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   52  24  50  30  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   59  25  54  26  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    50  25  49  32  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  50  26  48  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    55  28  53  32  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
76/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
605 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                  
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A DENVER CITY LINE TO JAYTON LINE. THE COLD                  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE LATEST RUC13                 
MODEL HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.                        
OVERALL...THE INHERITED SET OF TAFS HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL. WE              
STILL EXPECT A DECK OF STRATOCU TO MOVE SOUTH/DEVELOP THIS                      
MORNING...WITH ALL BUT KFST EXPECTED TO SEE A TEMPORARY ROUND OF                
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. AVAILABLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE              
MAY MIX/DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE TRANS PECOS                         
REGION...INCLUDING KFST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A SCT DECK AT                  
KFST...BUT HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE BKN LAYER. WE HAVE ALSO                     
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY AT AREA TERMINALS BASED ON THE LATEST                  
RUC13 DATA. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                 
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL REMOVE MENTION OF GUSTS AT ALL SITES               
IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE PERMIAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE           
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND            
BY SUNSET. WINDY AND MARKEDLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS              
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROPPING INTO                
THE 20S MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD                   
COVER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES LATE                
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS                 
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.                                    
COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG EXPANSIVE AREA OF                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE COLD AIR MASS IN                  
PLACE FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S AND               
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.              
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM/MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS                
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND                
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.                                
THE NEXT VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN                   
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUNDAY...                 
DRIVING ANOTHER DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN               
BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS               
COOL NOR CONDITIONS NOT AS WINDY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE               
MAIN COLD SURGE WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WELL TO OUR               
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
557 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF KLBB AND KCDS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING                
SOUTH TOWARDS KLBB. TIMING CLOUDS USING SATELLITE BRINGS OVERCAST               
1400 FEET AGL DECK TO KLBB JUST AFTER 13Z...SIMILAR TO LATEST RUC               
MODEL RUN. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KCDS MAY BRIEFLY CIG AROUND 1500-2000                
FEET AGL NEAR 13Z...BUT ARE MUCH MORE SHREDDED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD               
ERODE AT KLBB BY ABOUT 17Z USING MODEL INTERPOLATION...BUT TIMING               
IS UNCERTAIN PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. WINDS ALREADY INCREASING              
TO OVER 20 KTS AND WITH TIGHT INITIAL PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD REACH             
SUSTAINED 23-25KTS GUSTS 32-34 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID                
MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER AFTER THAT. MCQUEEN                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SURGING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND                   
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL CLEAR ENTIRE AREA BY DAYBREAK. A             
LOW CLOUD DECK IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN                 
PANHANDLE...THOUGH A BIT MORE BROKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                      
PANHANDLE. THE RUC13 AND NAM12 SEEM WELL INITIALIZED AND ARE SIMILAR            
DEPICTING A CLOUD LAYER AT THE H850MB LAYER DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD                
MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. SATURATION LAYER OVER THE                   
ROLLING PLAINS APPEARS LESS PRONOUNCED. MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE            
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...BUT WRF/NAM SUGGESTS LAYER               
MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NEWEST                  
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A NOTCH COOLER ANYWAY...AND CHOSE              
TO LOWER ANOTHER NOTCH OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES GIVEN LOW CLOUD                  
OPPORTUNITY. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK INTO WINDY              
CATEGORY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SPEEDS JUST SHORT OF WIND                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON WITH A  WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.                                     
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT              
WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT.            
THIS SHOULD ASSIST IN DE-COUPLING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE             
PROFILE AND ALLOW A CHILLY NIGHT TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW             
CLOUDS MAY THREATEN REFORMING NEAR WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN ZONES                
AGAIN EARLY...BUT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS MORE ISENTROPIC LOWER                    
ATMOSPHERIC DOWNGLIDE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A BIT OF MOSTLY THIN                
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER SURFACE             
TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS. MCQUEEN                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY                
BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROUGH DURG THE DAY...AS A SFC LOW                     
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVG H50                    
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING EAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.                
AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE               
TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON FRI AFTN ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS WILL                
FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA TO WARM SEVERAL DEGS FM                     
THURSDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ONLY EXPERIENCING A                   
SLIGHT RISE.                                                                    
FOR THE WEEKEND...NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A SFC LEE                  
TROUGH ACRS THE REGION PROMOTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMEST                    
READINGS WILL BE REALIZED SUNDAY AS A H85 THERMAL RIDGE                         
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/COLD                 
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS ON                  
SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR              
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE TUES AND WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. STILL APPEARS THAT THANKSGIVING              
DAY WILL BE NICE AND MILD...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBLY               
OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...                 
WHICH COULD BRING SOME WEATHER CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        41  19  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         44  21  50  27  61 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     46  22  50  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     49  20  52  26  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       49  23  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   49  22  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    50  21  52  27  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     49  26  50  28  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
SPUR          50  22  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     52  22  52  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/21/05                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
356 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SURGING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND                   
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL CLEAR ENTIRE AREA BY DAYBREAK. A             
LOW CLOUD DECK IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN                 
PANHANDLE...THOUGH A BIT MORE BROKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                      
PANHANDLE. THE RUC13 AND NAM12 SEEM WELL INITIALIZED AND ARE SIMILAR            
DEPICTING A CLOUD LAYER AT THE H850MB LAYER DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD                
MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. SATURATION LAYER OVER THE                   
ROLLING PLAINS APPEARS LESS PRONOUNCED. MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE            
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...BUT WRF/NAM SUGGESTS LAYER               
MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NEWEST                  
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A NOTCH COOLER ANYWAY...AND CHOSE              
TO LOWER ANOTHER NOTCH OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES GIVEN LOW CLOUD                  
OPPORTUNITY. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK INTO WINDY              
CATEGORY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SPEEDS JUST SHORT OF WIND                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON WITH A  WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.                                     
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT              
WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE AREA MOST OF THE NIGHT.            
THIS SHOULD ASSIST IN DE-COUPLING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE             
PROFILE AND ALLOW A CHILLY NIGHT TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW             
CLOUDS MAY THREATEN REFORMING NEAR WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN ZONES                
AGAIN EARLY...BUT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS MORE ISENTROPIC LOWER                    
ATMOSPHERIC DOWNGLIDE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A BIT OF MOSTLY THIN                
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER SURFACE             
TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS. MCQUEEN                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY                
BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROUGH DURG THE DAY...AS A SFC LOW                     
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVG H50                    
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING EAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.                
AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE               
TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON FRI AFTN ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS WILL                
FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA TO WARM SEVERAL DEGS FM                     
THURSDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA ONLY EXPERIENCING A                   
SLIGHT RISE.                                                                    
FOR THE WEEKEND...NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A SFC LEE                  
TROUGH ACRS THE REGION PROMOTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMEST                    
READINGS WILL BE REALIZED SUNDAY AS A H85 THERMAL RIDGE                         
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/COLD                 
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS ON                  
SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR              
MONDAY.                                                                         
A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE TUES AND WED AS AN UPPER RIDGE                  
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. STILL APPEARS THAT THANKSGIVING              
DAY WILL BE NICE AND MILD...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBLY               
OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...                 
WHICH COULD BRING SOME WEATHER CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        41  19  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         44  21  50  27  61 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     46  22  50  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     49  20  52  26  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       49  23  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   49  22  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    50  21  52  27  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     49  26  50  28  62 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
SPUR          50  22  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     52  22  52  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/21                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
103 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVES             
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA HAVE WINDS AT 40-50 KNOTS JUST                
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER AT 4-5KFT. RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DON`T                 
SHOW THE WINDS GETTING ANY STRONGER. THE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING              
37 KTS AT TNB AND WILL BEGIN MIXING SOWN TO THE SURFACE BY 15-16Z.              
FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS.                          
KRLX RADAR IS STEADILY FILLING IN WITH PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST.               
ONLY DELAYED ONSET OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY A                   
COUPLE OF HOURS.                                                                
AT 14Z COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.                     
INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT A           
FEW DEGREES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                       
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPSLOPE RH WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR AREAS              
OF -SHSN WEST...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL BANDING LATE AS VORT                
PASSES. HOWEVER BEST NW FLOW LAKE TRAJECTORY WONT DEVELOP UNTIL                 
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH LESSENING LOW                    
LEVEL MOISTURE. ELECTED TO POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                       
FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY.                                                          
IT WILL ALSO TURN MUCH COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF -12C 85H              
TEMPERATURES. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID WITH LOWS               
FROM AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S.                                                
SNOWFALL COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE                   
DECREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE                
BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT. DURING THIS TIME...AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE            
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN            
GREENBRIER COUNTY...WITH LIMITED SNOW ELSEWHERE IN THE SE WV                    
MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES...THE SNOW IS                    
EXPECTED TO END BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID            
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR                 
THIS...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE.            
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE                   
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.                                           
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL            
WITH READINGS LIKELY TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS OF SNOW COVER.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
BRIEF SPELL OF S/W RIDGING AND WARMING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO YET              
ANOTHER 5H TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY. LOOKS               
LIKE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION UNDER INSOLATION TO PERHAPS PUSH ALL                 
AREAS INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 50S EAST SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE NW               
SNOW COVER WHERE 30S LIKELY TO LINGER. FRONT SLIDES THRU MONDAY                 
NIGHT PER THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY                
SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAINS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER                 
ROUND OF UPSLOPE -SHSN LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS WILL CARRY              
CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY WESTERN ZONES                
TUESDAY AS MORE S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THRU THE TROF AND ACROSS THE                  
REGION. SHOULD START TO SEE MORE DRYING WED AS THE 5H TROF STARTS               
TO LIFT OUT AGAIN SO LOW POPS MAINLY FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE                  
MOST PART. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN MILD AS COMPARED TO LATE WITH THE                  
FROPA MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY COOL UNDER THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD                     
ADVECTION THRU WED...BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S WEST              
TO MID/UPPER 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
DRY AIR AND A WESTERLY WIND AT CLD LEVEL HELPING TO TEAR APART SNW              
SHWS TRYING TO MOVE INTO VIRGINIA. SNW SHWS NOW MAKING IT TO EKN                
AND THESE WILL SLIP SOUTH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MAY BEGIN AS A                   
RAIN/SNOW GRAINS (GS) MIX AS IT BEGINS AT LWB LATER THIS PM. AS                 
SHRTWV DIGS THROUGH VA LATE TONIGHT...SNW SHWS PICK UP IN                       
INTENSITY AT LWB BUT MORESO AT BLF...WITH THE MOST                              
RESTRICTIONS...IFR VIS OR CIG OCCURRING FROM 10Z TO 15Z. WINDS MAY              
ALSO GUST TO 25 KTS AT BLF AND ALSO POINTS EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING                
COMPONENT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                    
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT                  
ARRIVES MONDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.                            
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST                 
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ045.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK                                                                
NEAR TERM...AMS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DS/JH                                                              
LONG TERM...JH                                                                  
AVIATION...KK/KM                                                                
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
347 PM PST THU NOV 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING        
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. ANOTHER QUICK                  
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO               
SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD BY THE END OF THE              
WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                                    
TONIGHT...STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROF CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY                    
PROGRESS THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST. AS OF 22Z...THE BACK EDGE                
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM               
SEATTLE TO PENDLETON AND WAS MAKING A STEADY NORTHEAST PROGRESSION              
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS                   
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALBEIT FAIRLY LIGHT...AND SHOULD                 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ASCENT                 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE WA AND NORTH ID. THE LATEST RUC SEEMS TO               
BE HANDLING THE FRONTAL AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONING QUITE                
WELL AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT                
HOURS.                                                                          
THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN                 
OVER THE SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PALOUSE THIS EVENING AS                 
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE THE NEGATIVE                
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALLOW SOME WRAP-AROUND                 
MOISTURE TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. THE TROF AND               
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN 06-09Z TONIGHT...WITH ANY           
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE                
NE CORNER OF THE CWA.                                                           
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS VALUES FAR              
TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS HAVE PLUNGED TOWARD 0C ON                 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WE HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF                  
SNOW AROUND 2500 FT AT PULLMAN. THIS SUGGESTS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS                
FORECASTS NEARLY 2000 FT TOO HIGH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE A RESULT                
OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET-BULB COOLING AND WE WILL HAVE              
TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE                 
ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS THIS IS A SWIFT MOVING SYSTEM AND QPF                  
VALUES ARE A LITTLE TOO LOW...NOT TO MENTION ANY SNOW THAT FALLS                
IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS SHOULD READILY MELT. FX                                   
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXIT OF TODAYS WEATHER SYSTEM                   
STILL INFLUENCING PART OF THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE EARLY                    
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ALSO                        
MAINTAINING A RESPECTABLE TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT                   
APPROACHES...STARTS TO AFFECT THE CASCADES. THIS LOW PRESSURE                   
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PLUME PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH              
IT COME THE HIGHEST POPS OF THIS TIME INTERVAL. MOISTURE TAP AND                
WEATHER SYSTEM CLEAR THE AREA HOWEVER THE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND IN THE              
WAKE IS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO SHUNT ANY SMALLER NUISANCE                      
SHORTWAVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THUS HAVE KEPT MINOR POPS ALONG                 
THE PERIPHERY AND PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO CAPTURE ANY                   
MINOR SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH PASSAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY                
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO                   
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND ANY MIXING POTENTIAL WITH FRIDAY                 
NIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSAGE. /PELATTI                                         
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE                 
REGION ON SUNDAY AND PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL                
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND POOR MIXING WITH             
RESULTING AIR STAGNATION CONCERNS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING                
SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS. MODELS             
AGREE ON BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION BUT               
DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. ONE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON                 
MONDAY AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL              
CHOICE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM ON MONDAY            
THAT SERVES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THE FRONT LOSES SOME PUNCH AS IT              
REACHES THE CASCADES WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST                
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORMS A STRONGER CLOSED LOW             
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH CAPTURES MOST OF THE ENERGY AND                  
MOISTURE RESULTING IN LITTLE EFFECT OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST OTHER             
THAN TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A            
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT THE STAGNANT            
CONDITIONS AS 850MB WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE.               
RIDGING REBOUNDS BY MIDWEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE AIR                     
STAGNATION CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /KELCH                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH                   
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF IDAHO THIS                   
EVENING. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT                  
AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND                        
VISIBILITIES TO KGEG...KSFF...KCOE...AND KPUW UNTIL 03Z. IN                     
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS                
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30KTS                 
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT IFR STRATUS FIELDS TO              
FORM OVERNIGHT AFTER 12Z IMPACTING KGEG...KSFF...AND KCOE. /EK                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        32  43  32  42  27  43 /  80  10  50  10  10   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  32  43  33  43  30  43 /  90  10  50  20  10   0                 
PULLMAN        33  45  36  45  30  46 /  70  10  30  10  10   0                 
LEWISTON       38  52  38  50  31  51 /  60   0  20  10  10   0                 
COLVILLE       29  40  31  41  24  39 /  90  10  40  10  10   0                 
SANDPOINT      32  42  32  40  26  42 / 100  20  50  40  20   0                 
KELLOGG        33  41  34  40  30  40 /  90  30  50  40  20   0                 
MOSES LAKE     30  47  31  47  27  45 /  10   0  20   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      32  45  35  45  29  42 /  10   0  20   0   0   0                 
OMAK           28  43  32  43  26  42 /  20  10  20   0   0   0                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
200 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                        
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE                     
POSSIBILITIES THIS MORNING...THEN ANY LINGER PCPN CHANCES FOLLOWED              
BY COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.                                           
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS                       
MORNING...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT MANIFESTS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF              
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO BE HEFTY ALONG            
THE 280-295 K SFCS THOUGH 18Z TODAY...AS DOES THE 925-850 MB WARM               
AIR ADVECTION...SO AMPLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS TO FUEL PCPN. THIS            
IS ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW TO THE                 
NORTH...AND A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO                   
NORTHERN MN. AGAIN THOUGH...SATURATION IS THE QUESTION. A                       
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTION SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE              
SATURATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...FROM 850 MB TO            
THE SFC. THE SATURATED LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW HOWEVER...GENERALLY              
ONLY AROUND 2 K FT THICK. MEANWHILE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BETWEEN                  
12-18Z THIS MORNING...WHEN THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE AT THEIR                      
PEAK...STILL POINT TO A NEAR SFC DRY LAYER. CURRENT SFC DEWPOINT                
DEPRESSIONS WELL OVER 10 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO             
CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THIS DRY LAYER WILL NEED TO BE DONE                  
BEFORE PCPN CAN REACH THE SFC. RUC TD DEPRESSIONS IN THE 1000-950 MB            
LAYER SHOW A DECREASE THIS MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE TOO                     
LITTLE...TOO LATE. FEEL THIS NEAR SFC/SFC DRY LAYER WILL NOT BE                 
OVERCOME BY THE TIME THE BROADSCALE THERMODYNAMICS MOVE EAST...NOR              
IS THE CLOUD DEPTH LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO            
GET A DRIZZLE PROCESS GOING. FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE A BETTER                   
CHANCE...BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO                
INCLUDE IN THE LOCAL FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL HAVE TO BE                   
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                    
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SLID EAST INTO EASTERN             
WI...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SUB 850 MB POST THE               
FRONT...WITH A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THAT. BETTER SATURATION/COLD              
AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME COLD AIR CU/SC FLAT-TOPPED DEVELOPMENT.               
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WHERE THE SATURATION IS                        
DEEPEST...IN THE NORTH...BUT DON/T FEEL THERE WILL BE A SNOW SHOWER             
THREAT AT THIS TIME.                                                            
TONIGHT TROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL               
STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AS THE 500 MB                 
TROUGH EXITS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SPIN                 
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...WHILE AN                     
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ALSO SINKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 850 MB TO SFC             
LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST TONIGHT...BUT DRYING IN THE SFC LAYER            
OCCURS ON THU...PER THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES                
JUMP UP TO 9.5 C/KM FOR THU. SO...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND WED              
NIGHT/THU...WITH CU/SC DEVELOPMENT IN ANY BREAKS ON THU. SOME                   
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                             
A SFC HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY             
ON FRIDAY...WHILE A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO IA. 19.00Z NAM AND GFS MODELS RUNS PAINT             
SOME QPF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT DIMINISH IT AS             
IT WORKS INTO THE HIGH. THE SREF SUPPORTS THIS. SO...SOME CLOUDS TO             
THE WEST AND SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL KEEP THE LOCAL                
AREA DRY FOR NOW.                                                               
FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONABLE READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH             
HIGHS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY NOON FOR               
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND IT...                  
LEADING TO MORE STEADY...EVEN FALLING TEMPS. THE FLUX OF COLD AIR               
WILL CONTINUE FOR THU...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. IN             
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND STAY UP FOR                
THU. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S SHOULD RESULT. SKIES WILL            
START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT...WITH DECREASING WINDS.             
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME CHILLY FRI MORNING LOWS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS            
IN SOME LOCATIONS.                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO                       
AROUND...CONVERGING ON A MORE JOINT SOLUTION...AS OPPOSED TO                    
VARIANCES THAT WERE ALMOST 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER             
PREVIOUSLY. CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OUT              
OF CANADA...STRENGTHENING AS IT SPINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER PCPN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO             
BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. INVERTED               
SFC TROUGH POST THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW               
AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE PCPN CHANCES ON THE             
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH...BETTER CHANCES LOOK              
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN                 
BUILD IN FOR TUES/WED. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN FOR NEW            
WORK WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WITH A             
TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK INTO NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS                           
SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.              
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TAF                  
SITES. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THIS ONSET WILL BE POST FRONTAL...WITH            
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT AROUND 15Z AT KRST AND 16Z AT KLSE. THUS            
HAVE KEPT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS OF                
2K-3K FEET FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE                
EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 00Z THURSDAY BUT REMAIN IN THE MVFR                     
CATEGORY. RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL               
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 30 KNOTS AT BOTH TAF SITES.                         
RABERDING                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIECK                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
111 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
106 AM CST                                                                      
MAIN PLUME OF SNOW THRU THE DAY HAS BEEN ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF              
LK MICHIGAN. DESPITE WEAK TROF PASSAGE DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING               
AND SLIGHT VEERING OF BANDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE FETCH               
FOR PORTER COUNTY ONLY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE MILWAUKEE.               
MAY WIND UP GETTING 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR PORTER COUNTY BUT TO                      
CONTINUE CARRYING THE WARNING OR EVEN AN ADVISORY SEEMS TO BE                   
OVERKILL. MODELS INDICATING AS THEY DID IN PREVIOUS RUNS THAT WIND              
FIELD IS BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW TOWARD MORNING...                        
TERMINATING THE PRESENT NORTHERLY FETCH. THEREFORE PRUDENCE WUD                 
DICTATE TO CANCEL WARNING. WILL DO SO BEFORE 4AM ISSUANCE THIS                  
MORNING.                                                                        
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
836 PM CST                                                                      
RADAR TRENDS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEPICT                   
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE               
MICHIGAN. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP                   
ACROSS FAR SOUTH LAKE MICHIGAN LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO...THOUGH                   
STILL APPEARS MAIN LES AXIS AT THIS TIME IS ALONG EASTERN SHORE                 
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. NEW 00Z NAM IN THROUGH 48+                      
HOURS...AND TENDS TO KEEP MAIN CONVERGENT/QPF AXIS OFF TO THE EAST              
OF PORTER COUNTY...WHICH MAKES ME SUSPECT THAT OUR SNOW AMOUNTS                 
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. WHILE HAVE NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE                
TO DROP ONGOING WARNING FOR PORTER COUNTY...HAVE SHAVED TOTAL SNOW              
AMOUNTS A BIT MORE TOWARD 5 TO 7 INCHES MAX ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST                
PORTER COUNTY.                                                                  
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...FLURRIES          
AND DECREASING CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE               
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BUMP WIND GUSTS                      
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRIDS OUT AND PUBLISHED. ZFP/WSW               
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
RATZER                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
340 PM CST                                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS SURROUND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST                
INDIANA AS REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE              
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY                    
DRIVING SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE OHIO              
VALLEY BY FRI MORNING AND CARVING OUT AN EVEN DEEPER LONG WAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO ANOTHER                     
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER TO SURGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. H85            
TEMPS DROP TO -14 DEG C ACROSS SRN LK MICHIGAN RESULTING IN VERY                
STRONG THERMAL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE WATER SURFACE TO H850 TEMP                 
DIFFERENCES OF GREATER THAN 20 DEG C.                                           
PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHERE LES BANDS WILL SET UP WITH NW FLOW                     
VEERING MORE NORTH AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS. LOCAL WRF HINTING              
AT SIMILAR SCENARIO AS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES WITH INTENSE MID                 
LAKE BAND WAFFLING SOUTH ENHANCED BY MID LAKE CONVERGENCE AND THEN              
BLASTS ON SHORE AROUND 03Z WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES                
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA AS                  
WELL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND                      
COMPONENT ALONG THE MI SHORELINE EVIDENT AROUND 03Z.                            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFT TO 12 K FEET BY 00Z THIS EVENING PER NAM                 
FORECAST SOUNDING TIME SERIES AND STAYS THERE UNTIL ALMOST 12Z                  
FRI. AT THIS POINT INVERSION THEN COMES CRASHING DOWN AND LOW                   
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY               
EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE DAY                   
FRIDAY. BEFORE THEN... LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND                
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWS GRADIENT WIND TO TURN              
FROM 320 TO MORE 340-350 MAXIMIZING FETCH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE                
LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THESE FACTORS AT PLAY... WILL UPGRADE               
GOING LES ADVISORY TO WARNING FOR PORTER COUNTY AS EXPECT SNOWFALL              
TO VARY FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY.                           
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF SHARPLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AS WOULD              
EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS AS FAR WEST AS ALONG I-65 BUT UP TO 4                    
INCHES ALONG THE LAKE-PORTER COUNTY LINE IN INDIANA.                            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER TO ABOUT 3 K FEET BY 13-14Z FRI... AND                  
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR/LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD                
AND EAST OF NW INDIANA. WINDS ALSO BACK TO MORE NW QUICKLY FRI                  
MORNING... WHICH WILL SHIFT ANY REMAINING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW BANDS EAST OF PORTER COUNTY BY MID MORNING LEAVING A                
FEW FLURRIES BEHIND.                                                            
ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE                
NEXT 36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES REINFORCED ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN U.S. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND HEIGHTS              
BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE                  
EAST SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW              
LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX STREAKS SE               
IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN IL AND NW IND LATER ON SAT. WHILE                   
UPPER DYNAMICS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE... LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT WILL FORECAST                   
CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN.                                                             
ED F                                                                            
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                         
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMS IS                 
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS IN                   
ADVANCE OF DIGGING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE FAIRLY                 
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FORCING...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                  
PERSIST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.               
DESPITE INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES                 
SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED                   
MENTION OF CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH                
AXIS APPROACHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL MARGINAL IN TERMS OF              
PRECIP TYPE WITH LOW LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND                   
FREEZING. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION            
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF INTO MONDAY...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. QUIET                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND NEXT CONCERN WILL BE                
POTENTIAL OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE               
WEEK. WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN NCEP ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE END OF THE            
WEEK...LARGE RUN TO RUN DEVIATIONS...AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AMONG             
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL KEEP THANKSGIVING DRY AT THIS POINT.                 
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAFS...SKIES CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR JUST ABOUT                   
EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...EXCEPT OVER THE TERMINALS. BUT TRENDS                 
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT IN A FEW HRS WITH SKC FOR              
MOST OF FRIDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE END OF               
THIS PERIOD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL                 
SLOWLY RELAX OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING GUSTS TO DIMINISH BUT EXPECT                  
PREVAILING WINDS 10-15KTS TO CONTINUE THRU MID MORNING. A LARGE                 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST...JUST WEST OF NORTHERN              
IL FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY BY                  
LATE AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS DIMINISH UNDER 10KTS. WINDS TURN WSW                   
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY                
EVENING. CMS                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
141 PM CST                                                                      
LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE WINNEPEG THIS                  
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN                   
MARITIMES...WAS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE                 
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND                
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO                  
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST...REACHING              
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE                  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST                    
TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. LOW                      
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.                
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY.              
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF STRONG...POSSIBLY GALE FORCE...                     
NORTHWEST WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY.                                        
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.                       
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-                   
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM                
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 6 PM     
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1225 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG ERN SHORE OF LM MOVG DUE SOUTH INTO              
SBN ATTM IS EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE                
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND FIELDS. THUS EXPECT MOD-HVY SNOW TO CONT AT               
SBN UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WITH PREDOMINANTLY LIFR VSBYS. THE NLY                
FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SHSN WEST OF FWA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY              
MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK LOW LEVEL DRYING AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD               
DIMINISH BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH REMNANTS DRIFTING EWD DURING                 
THE DAY PSBLY BRIEFLY IMPACTING FWA... FOR NOW JUST CONTD WITH                  
VCSH BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO MVFR GROUP WITH 12Z TAFS. AT SBN                 
WITH LAKE EFFECT ENDING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTN                
AND CONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN IN WARNING.               
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THIS AREA UNDER A STRONG BAND SINCE LATE             
AFTERNOON AND PHONE CALLS INDICATED 3 INCHES HAD FALLEN IN JUST A               
COUPLE HOURS. UPSTREAM REPORTS TO THE NORTH ALSO INDICATED CLOSE TO             
6 INCHES. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME BUT              
SOME GROWING CONCERN FOR NORTHERN ELKHART COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.                 
LATEST RUC13 PAINTS AND INTERESTING PICTURE FOR LAKE BAND EVOLUTION             
TONIGHT. SHORE PARALLEL SINGLE BAND BEGINNING TO GET MORE ORGANIZED             
PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND IS CURRENTLY ALIGNING ITSELF RIGHT                
ALONG EASTERN LAKESHORE NORTH OF BENTON HARBOR. WATER VAPOR SHOWING             
SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS IS DISRUPTING BANDS              
SLIGHTLY OVER OUR AREA BUT VEERING WINDS BEHIND IT IS HELPING SET UP            
THE SINGLE BAND. WE ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE A STRONG STREAMER                 
CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH SHOULD HELP FUEL THIS BAND                    
OVERNIGHT. RUC13 925MB OMEGA HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH ITS                     
DEPICTION OF A WAVE OF STRONG LIFT MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM                  
SUPERIOR AND PHASING WITH CURRENT DEVELOPING BAND. THUS GOING                   
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR NOW AND MORE INTENSE BANDS EXPECTED AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                                               
OF SOME CONCERN IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. MODEL OMEGA               
FIELDS HAVE BEEN DISPLACED A BIT TOO FAR WEST...WHICH WE HAVE NOTED             
AS A BIAS AT TIMES IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT THE CASE                 
EARLIER THIS WEEK. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE               
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EASTERN BERRIEN AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN               
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH ST. JOSEPH AND WESTERN ELKHART COUNTIES IN                  
INDIANA WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THIS DEVELOPING BAND. THEREFORE              
CASS WAS UPGRADED TO THE WARNING AND WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS FOR               
POSSIBLY UPGRADING ELKHART. SECONDARY BAND COMING ONSHORE INTO                  
SOUTHERN BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES HAS BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT WITH            
ESTIMATED REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.                                             
OUTSIDE OF HEADLINE AREAS...BANDS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND                  
PRODUCING NARROW AND BRIEF BANDS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL. KFWA REPORTED             
HEAVY SNOW FOR A FEW MINUTES AND THIS BAND HAS INTENSIFIED LAST HALF            
HOUR. ADDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN AREAS WITH UP TO AN               
INCH POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY BUT BRIEF NATURE. FURTHER UPDATES MAY             
BE NEEDED AS THIS BAND BECOMES MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED.                       
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN ITS INFANCY ONGOING ACROSS NW INDIANA AND             
SW MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  MAINLY DISORGANIZED MULTIPLE BANDS WITH            
LOW QPF AND LITE SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP IS                 
UNDERWAY AND COMPARISON OF NAM BUFR SOUNDING WITH ASCENT SOUNDING               
FROM 16Z OUT OF KSBN MATCHES UP WELL.  H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C                    
PRODUCING LOW END DELTA-T OF 16 DEG WITH BASICALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL               
WINDS BETWEEN 310-330 DEG AT AROUND 20KT. SOUNDING ALSO CONFIRMS                
SIGNIFICANT COOLING FURTHER ALOFT AT H7 UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS AHEAD OF            
12Z MODEL PROGS HAVING FALLEN TO -20C BY 16Z.  FOLLOWED NAM12 WITH              
FORECAST DETAILS WITH ITS GOOD HANDLE ON VERTICAL PROFILE AND                   
CONSISTENCY WITH 12Z RUN.                                                       
WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS                
EVENING AND PEAKS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE COOLING ALOFT INCREASING DELTA            
T VALUES TO 20C WITH HIGH EQL PEAKING NEAR 15KFT AND EXCELLENT LAKE             
INDUCED CAPE THROUGHOUT THE GROWTH ZONE. NAM12/RUC DEPICTION OF                 
LAKE EFFECT PLUME CONSISTENT WITH PVS RUNS AND WITH INHERITED                   
FORECAST WITH ALL SIGNS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THE FORMATION OF A               
DOMINANT BAND OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIEST IMPACT ALONG NE                           
LAPORTE...BERRIEN...AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES WITH ADVISORY FURTHER                
SOUTH ALONG FCST BEST UVM INTO FULTON COUNTY.                                   
LAKE INDUCED CAPE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE AFTER 12Z AS WARMER AIR STARTS             
TO MOVE IN ALOFT HWVR EQL LEVELS REMAIN AOB LOW END OF GROWTH ZONE              
WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE THROUGH 21Z PER NAM BFR SOUNDINGS.                  
HOWEVER FETCH IS SHARPLY CUT BEYOND 18Z AS LL WINDS BACK TO WNW.                
ACCUMULATING SNOW SLACKENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS AND            
COMES TO AND END ABRUPTLY BEYOND 18Z AS SETUP FALLS APART.                      
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER HIGHS FRIDAY PEAK ONLY NEAR 30.  LOWS                
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW COVER            
THAT CLEAR OUT BEFORE MORNING COULD COOL MORE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD               
INDICATE. SFC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH NOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER AWAY             
AND WITH LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS A POSSIBILITY WILL RIDE GUIDANCE FOR              
LOW TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER TEENS.                                         
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING A                  
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH                
SURFACE HIGH UNDERNEATH...LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING TO WORK WITH              
SO NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH                
MOVES TO CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE               
PLAINS SETTING UP BRISK SW FLOW FOR OUR AREA. FRONT APPROACHES                  
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. DECENT AMOUNT OF WAA              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION. DPROG/DT               
INDICATING GFS FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS WITH OUR AREA BEING              
CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLD. BUFKIT SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING SHALLOW              
1200FT SFC BASED WARM LAYER SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MIX OF RA/SN                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTER FROPA. CYCLONIC NW FLOW               
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LES MONDAY               
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SETTLES INTO TN VALLEY BY                      
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY FCST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT TEMPS              
TO GENERALLY REMAIN AOB NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ THIS                   
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-004.                                                  
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ005-012-014>016.                                          
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     MIZ077-078.                                                                
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LUDINGTON                                                          
LONG TERM...LOGSDON                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
UPDATE...LASHLEY                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY                     
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                 
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO               
IS EXPECTED (PER RUC/NAM 850-800 RH) TO SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN                
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS               
A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES EAST. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH               
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY/LOW END WINDY                     
CATEGORY BEFORE DECREASING AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY BEFORE.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID              
TO UPPER 40S WHILE ACROSS THE EAST ONLY NEAR 40/LOW 40S AS THEY                 
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COLDER RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.                            
WEAK RIDGING AND SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH                       
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE               
MID TO UPPER 50S. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY                 
NIGHT LOWERING SUNDAYS HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WITH READINGS                   
GENERALLY IN LOW 50S WEST...MID/UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND EAST.                     
MONDAY-TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE              
WILL SEPERATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF                 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST              
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY...CLOSER TO 60S TUESDAY. UPPED               
TUESDAYS TEMPS A BIT GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS                 
850 TEMPS AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.                                              
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                           
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...BAND OF STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN                    
COLORADO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BRIEFLY REPORTED AT                 
KITR. RUC INDICATES THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WEST OF                      
KGLD...BUT WILL INDICATE A FEW HOURS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 2500              
FEET BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR              
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. SURFACE WINDS WILL                    
BECOME SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1142 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS                 
NOTED AREAWIDE. A BKN-OVC DECK BETWEEN 2000 AND 5000 FT IS                      
SPREADING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE              
AT TAF SITES..BUT SKIES BECOMING SCT BY 08Z AT KAEX AND BETWEEN                 
09 AND 12Z AT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20                 
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 22 TO 28 KNOTS WILL PERSIST                                 
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. VFR                  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  24                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                         
UPDATE...THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS TRACKING RAPIDLY                     
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.       
MOVEMENT IS SOUTH AT 20 MPH. BOTH THE FORT POLK AND LAKE CHARLES                
RADARS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY WELL. AT THE CURRENT SPEED, THE COLD                  
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY 11 PM.                                          
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE WIND ADVISORIES PER LATEST MAV GUIDANCE               
AND FORT POLK VAD WINDS BUT HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED MORNING                       
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE                 
MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM               
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 26 TO 34                
DEGREES.                                                                        
GUIDANCE WILL TYPICALLY OVERSHOOT TEMPERATURES ON AIRMASSES SUCH                
AS THIS ONE WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS. FORTUNATELY, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL               
REMAIN POISED NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE COLD DOME OF HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.                       
MARINE...THE LATEST RUC AND NAM GUIDANCE GIVES SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS               
UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO THE WATERS. FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO                
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE PEAK              
HOURS FOR WINDS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM. THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT                
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...LOCATED                
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES AREA OF EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL LA. FRONT TO              
PASS ACROSS KAEX BY 01Z...REACHING THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY 03Z.               
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE FROPA. WINDS EXPECTED              
TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25                  
KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. COULD ALSO                
SEE SOME CLOUDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD                
OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4000 FT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNRISE BUT WINDS               
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 24                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/ (FCSTR 13)               
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A SHREVEPORT TO COLLEGE STATION LINE AND              
MAKING GOOD SOUTHEAST PROGRESS. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED               
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE COASTAL                
WATERS THEREAFTER.                                                              
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH                
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS                
WILL BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE SETUP IS NOT                 
AS FAVORABLE HERE WITH THE H925 AND SFC WINDS NOT QUITE AS WELL                 
ALIGNED AS THEY ARE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.                                       
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK LARGELY DRY...AND HAVE HELD ONTO              
JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.                  
OTHERWISE...MAINLY JUST CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH.                            
AMID STRONG CAA REGIME...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD AS                  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S.                       
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THIS SEVEN DAY                            
FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE BONE DRY AIR SHOWN BY THE MODELS...AGAIN               
WILL CUT UNDER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THIS RESULTS IN FREEZING                       
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...AND A               
HARD FREEZE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONSIDERED A FREEZE                
WATCH PRODUCT TO ADVERTISE THIS...BUT WOULD PREFER TO BE DONE WITH              
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT               
IN THE HWO INSTEAD.                                                             
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO               
DEPICT A WARM/MOIST AIR REGIME SETTING UP BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND               
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT. CURRENT                      
FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK              
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME.                                                        
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK WAS A BLEND OF THE 06Z                
GFS AND TWO LATEST ECMWF RUNS...WHICH HAVE TEMPERED THE COOLDOWN                
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THEREAFTER SHOW A WARNING TREND UNDER             
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.                                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT              
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED                     
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS         
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY THE END                
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  40  54  32  61  49 /  10   0   0   0  10                                  
KBPT  40  54  35  61  51 /  10   0   0   0  10                                  
KAEX  34  51  27  58  41 /  10   0   0   0  10                                  
KLFT  40  53  30  61  46 /  10   0   0   0  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING                
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                 
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX                  
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO                       
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER                          
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1215 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST                                                
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING LED TO AN                   
INCREASE IN THE LK EFFECT OVER WRN CWA...ESPECIALLY FM HIGHER                   
TERRAIN OF ONTONAGON COUNTY INTO BARAGA COUNTY. IR SATELLITE                    
INDICATES ENHANCEMENT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THOUGH. HEAVY LK                 
EFFECT OVR CNTRL COUNTIES PRETTY MUCH STAYED STEADY STATE WHILE                 
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH. POUNDING CONTINUES OVR NW QUARTER                 
OF DELTA COUNTY...WITH STORM TOTALS FM ROCK TO CORNELL TO NEAR                  
GLADSTONE WELL OVR A FOOT. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY BACKED THIS EVENING             
AS SHORTWAVE PASSED THROUGH AND THIS RESULTED IN HEAVIEST SNOW                  
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WITH ALGER INTO                        
SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE NOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND                    
SQUALLS.                                                                        
AM GOING TO LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES ALONE. THOUGHT ABOUT DROPPING               
MARQUETTE AS OVERALL SCOPE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED                       
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING ISOLATED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS               
STILL EXIST OVR THE WRN SECTIONS OF MARQUETTE INTO BARAGA WILL STILL            
HAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS               
AND BLSN...KEPT THE WARNING GOING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD               
NOT GET TOO OUT OF HAND THOUGH FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS BANDS WILL               
REMAIN ON THE MOVE.                                                             
WARNINGS IN THE EAST SHOULD WORK OUT FINE. DID TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS               
DOWN IN LUCE COUNTY TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK                
MORE TO THE NW. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL LK NIPEGON CONNECTION TO THE                
SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPEL STRONGER SNOW             
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE LK MICHIGAN SHORELINE. WINDS BACKING             
NW WILL FINALLY END THE HIGHLY UNUSUAL HEAVY LK SUPERIOR LK EFFECT              
EVENT OVR WRN DELTA COUNTY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW COLD NNW FLOW (12Z            
H85 TEMPS RANGE FM -18C AT YPL TO -14C AT GRB) OVER THE RELATIVELY              
WARM WATERS OF LK SUP (WATER TEMPS RANGE FM 5C OVER THE W TO 8C IN              
THE E) BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN AND LO PRES IN SE CAN.               
NMRS LES BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE LK. A LOOK             
AT 12Z RAOBS SEEMS TO INDICATE WHY THE LES IS HEAVIEST OVER THIS                
PORTION OF THE LK. SHALLOW CLDS OVER WRN LK SUP IS WHERE STABILITY              
IS HIER/AIRMASS DRIER PER 12Z INL RAOB...WHICH SHOWS INVRN BASE AT              
H9 UNDER BONE DRY MID LVLS. ALTHOUGH 12Z YPL RAOB INDICATES INVRN               
BASE NEAR H9 AS WELL...THAT SDNG SHOWS MSTR THRU H7. SO LES BANDS               
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LK ARE MUCH MORE WELL DVLPD...ESPECIALLY THE             
BAND FED BY APRNT MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON. 16Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW             
SHOWS INVRN BASE ARND H85...BUT TEMPS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR ARE IN               
THE -10C TO -17C RANGE AND QUITE FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH. SO              
SN IS OF A VERY FLUFFY NATURE WITH HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. THE BANDS              
HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HTG DIMINISHING              
THE SHARPER LAND BREEZE CNVGC THAT ACCOMPANIES A WSHFT TO MORE NW               
OVER LAND DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING. OTRW...A SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE               
DIGGING SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND CLOSED LO NEAR JAMES BAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/GOING HEADLINES.                         
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV OVER ONTARIO PROGGED TO SWING SEWD ACRS THE ERN               
ZNS AND TO NE LK HURON BY 12Z FRI. LLVL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK               
MORE NW THRU THE NGT IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRACK. THIS SHRTWV MOTION              
WL SUPPORT HIER INVRN BASE/DEEPER MOIST LYR OVER THE ERN CWA                    
(DOWNWIND OF YPL)...WITH LOWER INVRN HGT LIKELY OVER THE W UNDER                
HIER HGTS (DOWNWIND OF INL). H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL A DEGREE OR              
TWO DURING THE NGT...SO THERMAL PROFILE WITHIN MIXED LYR WL REMAIN              
FVRBL FOR HIER SN/WATER RATIOS. SO...LARGER SCALE FACTORS FAVOR A               
CONTINUATION OF HEAVY LES OVER THE E WITH LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE             
W. MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR REALLY HEFTY AMTS WL BE INITIALLY OVER THE             
CNTRL FM MQT-ESC...WHERE HIER RES LOCAL WRF-ARW/RUC13 MODELS HINT AT            
SHARPEST H925 CNVGC THRU 03Z. AS THE LARGER SCALE WINDS BACK MORE               
NW...THE MORE FVRBL LLVL CNVGC WL DRIFT TO THE E. DVLPMNT OF LAND               
BREEZE OFF THE WCNTRL HIER TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPS WL BE LOWEST                   
TNGT...WL TEND TO REINFORCE THE INTENSITY OF THE WRN-MOST BAND.                 
MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON WL CONT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND AS WELL. HINT            
OF LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO... MORE VEERED WIND OVER THE ERN U.P...              
MIGHT HAVE THE SAME IMPACT IN LUCE COUNTY.                                      
ON FRI...ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV WL APRCH FM THE NW AND PASS OVER            
THE ERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. AS WL BE THE CASE TNGT...INVRN HGT/            
DEPTH OF MOIST LYR WL REMAIN HI OVER THE E ON THE CYC TRACK OF THIS             
SHRTWV TRACK BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER OVER THE W. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST              
LES OVER THE E UNDER THIS HIER INVRN WITH LLVL FLOW ALSO SLOWLY                 
BACKING MORE NW. 12Z NAM/RUC13/WRF-ARW HINT AT SHARP LLVL CNVGC OVER            
LUCE/ERN ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO GOING WRNGS THERE LOOK ON              
TRACK EVEN IF LAND BREEZE CNVGC FADES A BIT THRU THE DAY. OVERALL...            
GOING ADVYS/ HEADLINES SEEM APPROPRIATE. ONLY PSBL UPDATE TO                    
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSITY OF WRNG FOR SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND               
ABILITY TO CANX ADVY EARLY OVER THE W.                                          
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRI NGT THRU THU)...                                     
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.               
EXPECT SOME LES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES                
THROUGH SUNRISE AS PROGGED NAM/GFS 925-850 DEWPOINT DP REMAIN LESS              
THAN 7 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO TURN OFFSHORE BY                    
15Z...CUTTING OF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFT EAST OF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AFTN DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN. DID ADD IN               
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AS                 
LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT REMAINS             
WARMER THAN -10C ISOTHERM.                                                      
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL                  
IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON SUNDAY                 
THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES ON MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS...ECMWF/GFS/GLBL-GEM...DISAGREE              
WITH OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS...WHICH APPEARS MAINLY TO BE A FUNCTION            
OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGING. FLATTER 500MB RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ECMWF              
SOLUTION ALLOWS SYSTEM TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND            
GLBL-GEM HAVE MUCH BETTER DEFINED 500MB RIDGE EXTENDING BACK INTO               
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULT OF THIS MASS FIELD DIFFERENCE ALLOWS THE                 
ECMWF LOW TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND                    
WEAKER...WHILE THE GFS/GLBL-GEM SOLUTIONS TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE               
FCST AREA WITH A STRONGER/SLOWER PROGRESSION. AS FAR AS DETAILS                 
GO...THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH IMPACT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT IN GFS                
WORLD AND A LOW IMPACT LES EVENT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. A QUICK LOOK            
AT SOME OF THE MASS FIELDS SHOWS MORE DIFFERENCES. LATEST                       
ECMWF(12Z)...SHOWS GOOD MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE (PER 700-500MB DIVQ)              
THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE MORE                 
BULLISH GFS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IS BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH BEST MID              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE            
LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. FROM THEIR INITIALIZATION ITS HARD            
TO COME UP WITH ANY DIFFERENCE THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE VARYING                   
SOLUTIONS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER POPS THROUGHOUT.                          
.TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL WORK                 
ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO               
TEMPORARILY WARM UP...THOUGH DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUITE                 
REACH 40. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE A VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS                 
POINT. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -6 TO -8C IN THE GFS AND 0 TO +2C IN              
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS DISCREPANCY IS DUE IN PART TO THE                 
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THE NEXT SYSTEM                   
BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING.              
BOTH THE GFS AND GLB-GEM AGREE WITH TIMING...THOUGH THERE ARE                   
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THIS SYSTEM              
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE LAKES ALTOGETHER.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO             
MAINLY IMPACT CMX OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS            
AND VSBY IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLD HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW SHIFTING              
ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY MAY IMPACT SAW THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH                 
BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIGS...BUT OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END AT SAW              
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS NW WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS                  
THERE. HOWEVER AS INVERSION LOWERS ON FRIDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
PERSISTS...THERE COULD BE STILL BE CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT SAW.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LOOK FOR LAKE SUPERIOR TO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW                         
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THIS STRONG            
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE            
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES SUPERIOR THROUGH                
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH                
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE              
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR                
     MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                        
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-               
     085.                                                                       
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.                   
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265.                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-250.                            
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  NONE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...PEARSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1200 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOSTER A CLEARING TREND EARLY THIS                     
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL CLOUDS INCREASE                
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING TRIES TO WARM OUR                       
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS               
IS EXPECTED AS WELL, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN                
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY DURING THE EARLY AND MID                
AFTERNOON. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST                
ONCE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE AFTERNOON                
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND THIS                  
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 938 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
AS COVERAGE OF INLAND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS                   
EVENING, CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS IN THE THUMB. SURFACE             
ANALYSES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOW THE WINDS STRONGLY BACKED TO              
THE NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ALL THE WAY UP TO               
PRESQUE ISLE, AND THIS HAS KEPT ACTIVITY OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE               
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT CONVINCING THAT                  
THIS WILL LAST ALL NIGHT AND TEND TO AGREE AS THERE IS STILL AN                 
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO VEER AS A SHORT WAVE                
ROTATES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. AT                
THE SAME TIME, IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THIS TO OCCUR, SO              
ANY ENCOUNTER WITH EASTERN SECTIONS OF HURON COUNTY WILL BE                     
SHORTER IN DURATION BEFORE THE WINDS BACK MORE STRONGLY TO THE                  
WEST TOWARD SUNRISE. FOR NOW, WE WILL DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY TO               
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING LENGTHY BREAK IN THE ACTION AND CALL FOR                
MORE OF A 3 TO 5 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION DURING THE EARLY                  
MORNING HOURS.                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
MAIN LAKE BAND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON PROVIDED JUST A GLANCING                
BLOW TO THE EASTERN THUMB COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A             
COUPLE INCHES REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF HURON COUNTY                
BEFORE THE BAND PUSHED OFFSHORE.                                                
NOT READY TO GIVE UP ON THE REMAINING NORTHERLY BAND(S)                         
NOTED OVER WESTERN LAKE HURON...AS CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL 8-10 KFT                
BASED OFF THE APX RADAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE            
HURON AND OVER EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE BECOME A BIT                
MORE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BAND(S) TO PUSH FARTHER                   
OFFSHORE...BUT STILL BELIEVE FAR EASTERN HURON COUNTY WILL GET                  
CLIPPED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES                            
EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORELINE....WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE                 
18Z RUC13...AS 925 MB OMEGA REALLY RAMPS UP LATE THIS EVENING OVER              
EASTERN HURON COUNTY. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...THE EVENING SHIFT                 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON EASTERN SANILAC COUNTY. LITTLE IF               
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WEST OF M-53.                                    
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN THUMB REGION...DIURNALLY ENHANCED                        
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND RECEDE CLOSER TO               
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW...WITH SKIES AT LEAST               
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING MINS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER               
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...DESPITE SURFACE WINDS FAILING TO DECOUPLE.                 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST...BY AND LARGE...THROUGHOUT THIS              
FORECAST PERIOD. TO START THE DAY FRIDAY...A BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT            
ACTIVITY WILL OFFSHORE OVER THE MIDDLE OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...THE             
TIP OF THE THUMB MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS DURING               
THE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AT               
THE SAME TIME...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA...MAINLY             
NORTH OF THE METRO DETROIT AREA. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...GENERALLY              
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A              
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE              
TENNESSEE VALLEY.                                                               
ACTUALLY...DRY WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD INTO SUNDAY AS WELL A              
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITHING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL MAINLY STAY              
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN            
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN A RELATIVELY MILD            
POSITION AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGH            
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH 40...PARTICULARLY WHERE LITTLE/NO SNOW COVER             
EXISTS...AS OPPOSED TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.              
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG WAVE             
ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER                 
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO TAP AT LEAST SOME GULF OF                
MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIX             
OF SNOW/RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                                     
AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND FORMS THEN FORMS INTO            
A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE PREVALENT OVER THE REGION...AS COLD CYCLONIC              
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY               
VERY WELL QUIET DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LARGE NORTHERN STREAM              
SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY.              
THIS WILL BRING MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS              
BACK TO AROUND 40 BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. WOULD HAVE TO SAY            
CONFIDENCE IS...AT BEST...MARGINAL GIVEN THE VIGOR OF THE UPCOMING              
SHORTWAVES AND THE INFLUENCE THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE ON THE OVERALL               
EVOLUTION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKES WILL TIGHTEN UP JUST A BIT                 
TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES OF THE LAND FALL THROUGH THE                        
20S...RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER LAKE HURON             
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS             
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY            
MORNING ALLOWS FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE AND BRING AN END              
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ049...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                    
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BT                                                                 
UPDATE.......BT                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
415 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS               
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL               
REMAIN THERE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE                    
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR...MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA TO                  
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING THEN INTO                
IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO AID IN DEVELOPING A                   
LEE SIDE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WITH SURFACE HIGH ALSO               
MOVING TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER               
THIS MORNING. WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS                  
SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE              
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WINDS EXPECTED              
TO BE MORE SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER. ALTHOUGH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE                
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS                
...LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN THIS MORNING.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE                
ALOFT PROMOTES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                  
DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER              
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
ALBERTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY PULLING THE              
NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THR0UGH THE AREA PRIOR TO                     
DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS CALL FOR MODEST SURFACE                   
PRESSURE RISES EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN BREEZY POST                    
FRONTAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ALSO ANTICIPATED TO FALL ONLY                
MODESTLY.                                                                       
CONTINENTAL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN AMPLIFICATION AS A                
SERIES OF PACIFIC LOWS DIG ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST SENDING                    
HEIGHTS BACK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.                   
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INITIALLY WITH FLOW ALOFT                     
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD                     
IMPROVE WITH CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH                      
MOISTENING FOR PRECIPITATION CONSIDERATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY                
AS INITIAL DISTURBANCE SHEARS NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES FROM THE                 
CALIFORNIA COAST. TO US THIS WAVE LOOKS TOO OPEN WHILE ATMOSPHERE               
LIKELY WILL NEED MORE MOISTURE DEEPENING AS WELL.                               
ANOTHER STRONGER THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT OPEN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO                 
PROGRESS FROM THE WEST COAST OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKSGIVING                  
DAY. THIS WAVE HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY ON ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR THE               
PAST WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT HAS CREDIBILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT                 
INITIAL LOW END SHOWER CHANCES AS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE              
AS WELL. TEMPERATURE PROFILE CLEARLY FAVORS LIQUID THIS FAR OUT                 
AND ALSO SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONVECTIVE. THIS WAVE                    
SHOULD LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...             
WITH MODEL TIMING ISSUES FACTORING INTO UNCERTAINTY. MCQUEEN                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        46  26  62  31  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         45  26  61  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     45  27  61  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     45  28  62  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       46  29  61  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   46  30  64  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    47  30  63  33  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     48  29  59  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
SPUR          48  31  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     50  31  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
734 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO                    
COUNTY...SO WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE STRATUS                 
SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING ACROSS EL                    
PASO...PUEBLO...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...HOPEFULLY. METZE                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
..SOME EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...                       
..A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST CO TODAY...               
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL           
ROCKIES. HIGH TERRAIN AWOS MOUNTAIN PASS SENSORS REPORTING 15-29KTS             
WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS. PIKES PEAK IS SUSTAINED 40 MPH WITH A PEAK WIND            
OF 57 MPH. IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...LEE SIDE            
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY              
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN CO PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN                 
PALMER DIVIDE. PUEBLO-LA JUNTA HAS WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER              
AR RIVER VALLEY. IFR-MVFR STRATUS BREAKING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF                
SOUTHEASTERN CO DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO               
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...STRATUS AND FOG HOLDING            
TIGHT ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WITH THE SOUTHERLY MOIST OROGRAPHIC                 
FLOW. VERY DENSE FREEZING FOG ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO PER LIVE WEB              
CAMS SINCE WE CAME INTO THE OFFICE AT MIDNIGHT. FOUR OUT OF THE                 
FIVE NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY I-25 CORRIDOR WEB CAMS HAD ZERO                    
VISIBILITIES. ALREADY ISSUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AROUND 1245                 
AM...SO THAT STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. PATCHY DENSE FOG...ALSO...NOTED             
IN DOWNTOWN COLORADO SPRINGS NOW.                                               
TODAY...RATHER VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET            
STREAK TO PUSH JUST NORTH OF CO TODAY. A LITTLE STRONGER MIDLEVEL               
WINDS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...AS THIS SYSTEM BRUSHES CO.                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE DENSE FREEZING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BREAK             
UP ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY BETWEEN 500 AM AND 800 AM THIS                         
MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY DUE TO MORNING                
RUSH HOUR TO START BETWEEN 400-500 AM. AFTER THE STRATUS                        
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING...JUST LOOKING FOR MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND               
A POSSIBLE SCT-BKN THIN CI/CS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD ALONG THE FRONT               
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE                    
TRICKY AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN                 
NORTHWEST FLOW CHINOOK. THE BIGGEST C51ENGE WILL BE FROM PUEBLO                 
TO LA JUNTA IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION                   
MODEL DATA...RUC AND NAM-WRF...SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS COULD STAY                 
EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL WARMING                
IN THESE AREAS GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS...LOWER SUN ANGLE...AND ANY              
HIGH CLOUDS...HOWEVER... 700MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 30-40KTS BY              
THE RUC YET THE NAM-WRF ONLY HAS 15-20KTS. IF THE WINDS DON`T PICK              
UP THEN HIGHS 45-50F AT PUEBLO...IF THEY PICK UP THEN HIGHS                     
55-60F.                                                                         
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WEAKENS. WITH A NEARLY CLEAR             
SKY...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN VALLEYS WITH THE                 
BANANA-BELT WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY GENERALLY ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR            
AND WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS FROM 6K-9K FT MSL...AND NEAR THE            
MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. 17                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SATURDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)                                                 
..DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...                            
..UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN BY THANKSGIVING...                                
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY WITH                      
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE              
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR              
60 DEGREES OVR THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE             
IN THE 20S AS SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WILL SEE THE USUAL BELT             
OF HIGHER TEMPS OVER THE ERN FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.                      
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISS VALLEY ON                 
SUN...BUT MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LITTLE SENSIBLE                
IMPACT FROM THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. HAVE LEFT SLIGHTLY COOLER WX                
INTACT FOR THE NERN ZONES. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR               
THRU MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS AND THE ATMOS REMAINS VERY                 
DRY.                                                                            
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A CHANGE IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN              
BY WED OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD            
AGREEMENT THRU ABOUT 200 H. H7 ZERO LINE WILL MOVE THRU SERN CO ON              
WED...AND THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS PROMISE TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. A LEAD            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SWRN MTS LATE WED OR THU...AND              
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BRING SOME NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE DVD. COULD                
EVEN SEE SOME PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE                
SCENARIO BECOMES MORE COMPLEX BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MAIN GLOBAL                
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING THE W COAST TROUGH AND                
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVR SRN CA OVR THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY                
EVEN NRN MEXICO/BAJA. THIS COULD RETURN THE AREA TO A STAGNANT WX               
PATTERN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE             
HOW THIS DEVELOPS OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 44                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LIFR CIGS AND IFR-LIFR VIS SHOULD                   
DISSIPATE AROUND THE KCOS TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/21.                          
OTHERWISE...VFR CLEAR BELOW 12K SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR KCOS...                  
KPUB...AND KALS TERMINAL POINTS REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. 17                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1004 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1000 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                              
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AGAIN TODAY AND ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE               
HOURLY GRIDS. SUNNY SKIES WITH WNW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS IN               
THE LOWER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHEAST IL.                   
COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL WITH                 
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. LOWS WERE IN THE LOWER 20S SE OF I-70.          
ALTONA...PRINCEVILLE AND MINONK WERE THE COLD SPOTS AT 11F AND                  
THATS WITHOUT A SNOW COVER.                                                     
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS IL THIS MORNING THANKS TO STRONG 1040              
MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER MO AND EASTERN OK AND RIDGING                    
NORTHWARD ACROSS MN. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 20S                  
OVER CENTRAL IL AND MID 20S IN SE IL WITH BLOOMINGTON STILL AT                  
19F. LIGHTER NW WINDS OF 6 TO 13 MPH PREVAILED THIS MORNING. ALOFT              
IL REMAINS DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN A QUIET NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH                
STRONG UPER LEVEL TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN AND U.S. PLAINS. DECENT UPPER LEVEL TROF                
WAS OVER MT.                                                                    
12Z RUC...NAM AND SREF MODELS WEAKEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH                       
PRESSURE A BIT TO 1036 MB AS IT DRIFTS EAST OVER THE MID MS VALLEY              
BY 00Z/6 PM TODAY. THIS WILL ENSURE SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS NW WINDS OF            
8 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT WEST BY SUNSET. VERY COLD 850 MB TEMPS               
OF -11 TO -14C AT DAWN ONLY ELEVATE TO BETWEEN -5 TO -9C BY                     
SUNSET. SO DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN                 
TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S CENTRAL IL AND MID 30S SE IL. NORMAL HIGHS               
TODAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 50S SE IL. STRONG               
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER MT TO ZIP ESE TOWARD NW IA BY DAWN SAT FIRST               
SPREADING CIRRUS AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL               
DURING TONIGHT.                                                                 
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 538 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                            
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.          
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.                          
SOME AC CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY A 10K FT DECK               
SHOULD ARRIVE IN PIA BY 12Z...WITH HIGHER CLOUDS FOR THE OTHER TAF              
SITES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF ILLINOIS                       
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL               
TAF SITES.                                                                      
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 235 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                               
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE              
AREA. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH                 
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST OF I-55. LOOKING FOR A                 
QUIET AND RATHER COLD DAY AHEAD OF WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.           
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TODAY INCLUDE FLURRIES POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY               
AND THE EFFECTS OF A STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID-                        
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE              
THE RESULT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE                      
AREA...AND WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD                 
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES                 
OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST                       
AREA...AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WINDS TURN                      
SOUTHERLY.                                                                      
THE CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE...THAT WAS                       
ANALYZED THIS EVENING OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS ARE                
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS BECOMING A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW AS                
IT ZIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...BEFORE                
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH OF A                  
SURFACE REFLECTION INDICATED...AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.                
DESPITE THAT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO                     
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES ON SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE                   
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.                                                      
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AND                  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY AND APPROACH              
50 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.                                                           
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                    
DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES                    
REGION ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE                 
ACROSS ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE MORE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE                       
AVAILABLE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...ALTHOUGH LOW CHANCES ARE IN                
THE FORECAST AS FAR NORTHWEST AS I-55. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN                
TO BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE...ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-55 MAY SEE              
THE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IF PRECIPITATION DOES                 
MANAGE TO FORM THAT FAR NORTHWEST. BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS                   
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL COLDER THAN THE                
40S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR HIGHS.                                               
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK               
WITH RESOLUTION OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER                     
LOW...AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE PROGRESSION OF A DIGGING TROUGH                    
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST TUESDAY MORNING               
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION                                                    
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 500 AM EST                                             
SEVERAL HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.  THIS SEEMS                  
REASONABLE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY                     
FLOW...AND GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM.  CONVERGENCE EAST INCREASES              
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE              
MOST DOMINATE BAND ON THE RADAR LOOKS TO STRETCH ALMOST PARALLEL TO             
MARQUETTE COUNTY...CROSSING INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...AND OVER                
EBEN JUNCTION AND JUST EAST OF TRENARY.  AN EASTERN PUSH TO THESE               
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.                                                      
INCORPORATED BS ON LAND WHERE WIND GUSTS WHERE GREATER THAN                     
22KT...WHICH ENDED UP BEING MAINLY THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.             
ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS IS WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END             
OVER THE CWA.  OUT WEST...FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS COULD BE AS EARLY             
AS 12Z THIS MORNING AS WNW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SIGNIFICANTLY             
LESSENING THE FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE RUC IS QUICKEST TO                 
ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND OVER GOGEBIC AND SOUTHERN ONTONAGON                   
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW TAKES A BIT LONGER TO GET TO                  
ONTONAGON COUNTY...WITH MODELS SHOWING 00Z AS THE CUT OFF POINT.                
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVING MAINLY EST OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...ENHANCING SNOWFALL             
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.                                      
TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE                  
VALUES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR TODAY.  A BLEND SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT...AS THE NAM/MET DROPS TEMPERATURES TO 0F AND            
THE GFS/MAV DISPLAYS SINGLE DIGITS.                                             
OTHERWISE FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES             
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.  HAVE SECOND GUESSED THIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE              
OF THE SNOWPACK...AND IF THIS IS BEING HANDLED BY THE MODELS QUITE              
YET.                                                                            
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT.  IF WE             
DO GET PRECIPITATION A MIX SEEMS REALISTIC...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
RISE TO THE -5 OR -6C OFF THE NAM AND GFS.  THE 12Z/20 ECMWF WARMS              
TO -2 TO -3C OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE SAME                   
TIME...12Z SUNDAY.                                                              
INCREASED SKY COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH TUESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY            
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR -7 TO               
-10C.  BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WARM AIR WILL BE ENCROACHING                        
ALOFT...RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -6C OR WARMER...EFFECTIVELY                
MINIMIZING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CLOUD COVER.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E...REACHING UPPER MI TONIGHT...EXPECT A               
GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH CONTINUED COLD              
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KCMX...-SHSN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX THRU            
THIS FCST PERIOD WITH PREVAILING VIS AND CIGS PROBABLY IN THE MVFR              
RANGE THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE PERIODS OF VFR VIS. MAY SEE A              
PERIOD OF IFR VIS LATE TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZE ENHANCED BACKING OF               
WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...                
SUPPORTING SOME HEAVIER -SHSN. AT KSAW...BACKING WINDS WILL BRING AN            
END TO LINGERING -SHSN THIS MORNING. GRADUAL LOWERING OF INVERSION              
SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT             
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END BEFORE                
SUNRISE AS PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE                 
EDGING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS            
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WINDS (AROUND 30KT)              
WILL DEVELOP MON THRU EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRES                 
DIVING SE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALES            
COULD DEVELOP.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                     
   MIZ006-007-085.                                                              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
   MIZ014.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KF                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
640 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 500 AM EST                                             
SEVERAL HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.  THIS SEEMS                  
REASONABLE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY                     
FLOW...AND GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM.  CONVERGENCE EAST INCREASES              
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE              
MOST DOMINATE BAND ON THE RADAR LOOKS TO STRETCH ALMOST PARALLEL TO             
MARQUETTE COUNTY...CROSSING INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...AND OVER                
EBEN JUNCTION AND JUST EAST OF TRENARY.  AN EASTERN PUSH TO THESE               
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.                                                      
INCORPORATED BS ON LAND WHERE WIND GUSTS WHERE GREATER THAN                     
22KT...WHICH ENDED UP BEING MAINLY THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.             
ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS IS WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END             
OVER THE CWA.  OUT WEST...FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS COULD BE AS EARLY             
AS 12Z THIS MORNING AS WNW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SIGNIFICANTLY             
LESSENING THE FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE RUC IS QUICKEST TO                 
ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND OVER GOGEBIC AND SOUTHERN ONTONAGON                   
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW TAKES A BIT LONGER TO GET TO                  
ONTONAGON COUNTY...WITH MODELS SHOWING 00Z AS THE CUT OFF POINT.                
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVING MAINLY EST OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...ENHANCING SNOWFALL             
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.                                      
TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE                  
VALUES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR TODAY.  A BLEND SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT...AS THE NAM/MET DROPS TEMPERATURES TO 0F AND            
THE GFS/MAV DISPLAYS SINGLE DIGITS.                                             
OTHERWISE FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES             
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.  HAVE SECOND GUESSED THIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE              
OF THE SNOWPACK...AND IF THIS IS BEING HANDLED BY THE MODELS QUITE              
YET.                                                                            
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT.  IF WE             
DO GET PRECIPITATION A MIX SEEMS REALISTIC...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
RISE TO THE -5 OR -6C OFF THE NAM AND GFS.  THE 12Z/20 ECMWF WARMS              
TO -2 TO -3C OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE SAME                   
TIME...12Z SUNDAY.                                                              
INCREASED SKY COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH TUESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY            
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR -7 TO               
-10C.  BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WARM AIR WILL BE ENCROACHING                        
ALOFT...RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -6C OR WARMER...EFFECTIVELY                
MINIMIZING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CLOUD COVER.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E...REACHING UPPER MI TONIGHT...EXPECT A               
GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH CONTINUED COLD              
FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KCMX...-SHSN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX THRU            
THIS FCST PERIOD WITH PREVAILING VIS AND CIGS PROBABLY IN THE MVFR              
RANGE THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE PERIODS OF VFR VIS. MAY SEE A              
PERIOD OF IFR VIS LATE TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZE ENHANCED BACKING OF               
WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...                
SUPPORTING SOME HEAVIER -SHSN. AT KSAW...BACKING WINDS WILL BRING AN            
END TO LINGERING -SHSN THIS MORNING. GRADUAL LOWERING OF INVERSION              
SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT             
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END BEFORE                
SUNRISE AS PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE                 
EDGING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS            
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WINDS (AROUND 30KT)              
WILL DEVELOP MON THRU EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRES                 
DIVING SE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALES            
COULD DEVELOP.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING              
     FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ013-014.                                                                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-             
     007-085.                                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-250.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KF                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEVERAL HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.  THIS SEEMS                  
REASONABLE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY                     
FLOW...AND GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM.  CONVERGENCE EAST INCREASES              
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE              
MOST DOMINATE BAND ON THE RADAR LOOKS TO STRETCH ALMOST PARALLEL TO             
MARQUETTE COUNTY...CROSSING INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...AND OVER                
EBEN JUNCTION AND JUST EAST OF TRENARY.  AN EASTERN PUSH TO THESE               
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.                                                      
INCORPORATED BS ON LAND WHERE WIND GUSTS WHERE GREATER THAN                     
22KT...WHICH ENDED UP BEING MAINLY THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.             
ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS IS WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END             
OVER THE CWA.  OUT WEST...FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS COULD BE AS EARLY             
AS 12Z THIS MORNING AS WNW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SIGNIFICANTLY             
LESSENING THE FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE RUC IS QUICKEST TO                 
ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND OVER GOGEBIC AND SOUTHERN ONTONAGON                   
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW TAKES A BIT LONGER TO GET TO                  
ONTONAGON COUNTY...WITH MODELS SHOWING 00Z AS THE CUT OFF POINT.                
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVING MAINLY EST OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...ENHANCING SNOWFALL             
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.                                      
TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE                  
VALUES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR TODAY.  A BLEND SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT...AS THE NAM/MET DROPS TEMPERATURES TO 0F AND            
THE GFS/MAV DISPLAYS SINGLE DIGITS.                                             
OTHERWISE FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES             
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.  HAVE SECOND GUESSED THIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE              
OF THE SNOWPACK...AND IF THIS IS BEING HANDLED BY THE MODELS QUITE              
YET.                                                                            
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT.  IF WE             
DO GET PRECIPITATION A MIX SEEMS REALISTIC...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
RISE TO THE -5 OR -6C OFF THE NAM AND GFS.  THE 12Z/20 ECMWF WARMS              
TO -2 TO -3C OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE SAME                   
TIME...12Z SUNDAY.                                                              
INCREASED SKY COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH TUESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY            
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR -7 TO               
-10C.  BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WARM AIR WILL BE ENCROACHING                        
ALOFT...RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -6C OR WARMER...EFFECTIVELY                
MINIMIZING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CLOUD COVER.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO             
MAINLY IMPACT CMX OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS            
AND VSBY IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLD HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW SHIFTING              
ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY MAY IMPACT SAW THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH                 
BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIGS...BUT OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END AT SAW              
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS NW WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS                  
THERE. HOWEVER AS INVERSION LOWERS ON FRIDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
PERSISTS...THERE COULD BE STILL BE CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT SAW.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END BEFORE                
SUNRISE AS PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE                 
EDGING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS            
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WINDS (AROUND 30KT)              
WILL DEVELOP MON THRU EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRES                 
DIVING SE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALES            
COULD DEVELOP.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING              
     FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ013-014.                                                                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-             
     007-085.                                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-250.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KF                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
906 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES LOW PRESSURE ACROSS                    
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE                  
AREA...FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.                        
MEANWHILE...DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH                   
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 12Z NAM/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW                  
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER                 
LEVEL SPINS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH FROUDE/MOISTURE FOR UPSLOPE                   
SNOW. WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND...HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN                 
THE O`NEIL PASS/FOUR CORNERS AREA. RAPID CITY SHOULD REMAIN                     
DOWNSLOPED MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT QUICK BURST                
OF CONVECTIVE SNOW.                                                             
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS. LEFT HEADLINES ALONG              
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST SOUTHWARD IF NORTHWARD MOVEMENT                
OF THE SNOW STALLS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF                 
NORTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY WITH                   
SNOWFALL. MAINLY VFR ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH                   
DAKOTA WITH A FEW MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA               
THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH A TIGHT SFC                  
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH                   
DAKOTA...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WATER VAPOR SAT               
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA.                                
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH                  
WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. A                
100KT 300MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL                     
INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO                  
THIS AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY AREA OF SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED                
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. NAM AND GFS STILL INDICATING A                
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK FOR THE UPPER LOW WITH THE NAM SHOWING                 
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES                 
OVER HARDING AND PERKINS COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA                  
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EVEN IF THE SNOW AMOUNTS END UP A BIT                  
LOWER...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY CAUSE REDUCED                       
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THEREFORE...FELT IT PRUDENT TO                
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER                         
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY              
INTO THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN A               
NARROW BAND NEAREST THE ND/SD BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING                  
LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.                      
AN UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO DRY                    
WEATHER. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON                
SUNDAY. POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW               
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY AND NW SD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE                
BEGINNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING            
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.                           
AVIATION...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS BRINGING MVFR CIGS CAN BE                     
EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND               
FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE             
WILL BRING SNOW TO MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...               
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME BLOWING  SNOW IS                 
EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO IFR AT TIMES.             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR HARDING-          
     PERKINS.                                                                   
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
536 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS                 
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL                 
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INDUCING A                     
LEE SIDE LOW AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS               
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL               
REMAIN THERE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE                    
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR...MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA TO                  
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING THEN INTO                
IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO AID IN DEVELOPING A                   
LEE SIDE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WITH SURFACE HIGH ALSO               
MOVING TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER               
THIS MORNING. WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS                  
SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE              
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WINDS EXPECTED              
TO BE MORE SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER. ALTHOUGH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE                
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS                
..LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN THIS MORNING.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE                
ALOFT PROMOTES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                  
DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER              
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
ALBERTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY PULLING THE              
NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THR0UGH THE AREA PRIOR TO                     
DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS CALL FOR MODEST SURFACE                   
PRESSURE RISES EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN BREEZY POST                    
FRONTAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ALSO ANTICIPATED TO FALL ONLY                
MODESTLY.                                                                       
CONTINENTAL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN AMPLIFICATION AS A                
SERIES OF PACIFIC LOWS DIG ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST SENDING                    
HEIGHTS BACK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.                   
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INITIALLY WITH FLOW ALOFT                     
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD                     
IMPROVE WITH CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH                      
MOISTENING FOR PRECIPITATION CONSIDERATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY                
AS INITIAL DISTURBANCE SHEARS NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES FROM THE                 
CALIFORNIA COAST. TO US THIS WAVE LOOKS TOO OPEN WHILE ATMOSPHERE               
LIKELY WILL NEED MORE MOISTURE DEEPENING AS WELL.                               
ANOTHER STRONGER THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT OPEN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO                 
PROGRESS FROM THE WEST COAST OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKSGIVING                  
DAY. THIS WAVE HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY ON ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR THE               
PAST WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT HAS CREDIBILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT                 
INITIAL LOW END SHOWER CHANCES AS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE              
AS WELL. TEMPERATURE PROFILE CLEARLY FAVORS LIQUID THIS FAR OUT                 
AND ALSO SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONVECTIVE. THIS WAVE                    
SHOULD LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...             
WITH MODEL TIMING ISSUES FACTORING INTO UNCERTAINTY. MCQUEEN                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        46  26  62  31  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         45  26  61  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     45  27  61  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     45  28  62  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       46  29  61  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   46  30  64  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    47  30  63  33  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     48  29  59  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
SPUR          48  31  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     50  31  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
413 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST                       
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS                
QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY                
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE WEATHER                 
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER QUIET THROUGH MOST OF NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 249 AM                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE                 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS (WITH YESTERDAY`S FRONT) HAS FRACTURED AND                    
MOVED INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. POST FRONTAL...OROGRAPHIC SNOW                      
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...BUT                  
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE NAM FORECASTS THE 500MB                
COLD POOL (-25C TO -28C) QUICKLY EXITING THE IDAHO PANHANDLE                    
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE SNOW              
THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PALOUSE AND COLUMBIA BASIN                   
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE                     
TENDENCIES SHOW SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES OVER EASTERN                         
WASHINGTON. THE RUC 850MB WIND ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL                
WIND FIELD WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 41KTS WERE                  
MEASURED BY THE PULLMAN ASOS EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 15Z...WINDS                 
SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO A MORE                      
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME EAST BY LATE IN THE              
DAY.                                                                            
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOWS UP ON THE MORNING WATER VAPOR AS A                  
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF NEAR 140W. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM                 
AND GFS WERE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE                
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER               
AND LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS THIS LATER MODEL RUN IS                         
PREFERRED. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH                         
PRECIPITATION AS YESTERDAY`S STORM. THE VORTICITY CENTER IS                     
EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH...AND THE BEST Q-VECTOR                         
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SO                
EVEN THOUGH SNOW LEVELS OVER THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU INTO THE                    
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE LOW                       
ELEVATIONS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO                 
PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOW. WITH HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT...THE                   
CREST OF THE CASCADES AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER               
CAN EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY                
ABOVE 3000 FEET. /GKOCH                                                         
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...YET ANOTHER VERY DEEP IMPINGEMENT OF                  
STRATOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE MID AND EVEN LOWER LEVELS OF THE                     
ATMOSPHERE IS EVIDENT OVER THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTREMELY STRONG DRYING ENCROACHING ON 140W AS OF                 
10Z. PV FIELDS FROM THE 00Z MODELS` 12 HOUR FORECASTS INDICATE                  
SOME LACK OF RESOLUTION OF THE TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION/FOLD OVER THE              
PACIFIC WITH THE BIAS OF THE MODELS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEAK/FAST              
SIDE WHEN COMPARED WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NET RESULT IS A                
SLOW DOWN IN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE                    
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS IT GRADUALLY                  
SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS ONCE IT PUSHES ON SHORE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND              
UKMET SHOWED AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A STRUNG OUT TROPOPAUSE                 
FOLD SIGNATURE IN THEIR PV FIELDS WHEREAS THE GFS INDICATED A MORE              
BIMODAL PV DISTRIBUTION SEPARATING THE FIELD PREMATURELY INTO TWO               
DISTINCT VORTICES OVER THE PACIFIC...SO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING               
FAVORS THE ECMWF AND UKMET CONSENSUS.                                           
IN PROCEEDING WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS...THE MAIN VORTEX                  
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE BEST               
SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS ALREADY EMERGING INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE                  
CANADIAN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING LOW                
AND MID-LEVEL FRONT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM LAG             
QUITE A BIT BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...FRONTOGENESIS IN              
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONTAL ABSOLUTE               
VORTICITY FIELD AND NET VERTICAL UPWARD INCREASING PVA ALONG THE                
FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL STILL                      
AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.                
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POPS                
WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN AND PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION              
INTO THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERY UPSLOPE VARIETY INTO THE IDAHO                    
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.                                                            
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN. THE               
DRIER AIR LOOKS A BIT MORE DOMINANT ON THE 00Z RUNS THAN IT DID AT              
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH NO MODEL REALLY INDICATING SIGNIFICANT                 
AREAS OF BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION REPRESENTATIVE OF FOG.                       
HOWEVER...WITH DECOUPLING AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE              
INCOMING SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE AXIS ON ALL MODELS...LOW-LYING AREAS              
WILL CERTAINLY STAND A CHANCE AT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY                  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                                                      
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT              
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT IF NOT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THIS SYSTEM THE               
MODELS ARE HAVING SIGNIFICANT DIFFICULTY WITH STREAM SPLITTING AND              
THE HANDLING OF THE FOCUSING OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN OR                  
SOUTHERN STREAM. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WAS LEFT LARGELY                    
UNCHANGED BEYOND MONDAY. /FRIES                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS WILL FLIRT WITH KGEG...KSFF...KPUW...AND KCOE BETWEEN               
12Z AND 18Z. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MOST OF THE STRATUS AWAY FROM THESE            
AIRPORTS...BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS                            
MORNING...STRATUS OVER THE PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS MAY BUILD WESTWARD.              
SINCE KCOE IS CLOSEST TO THE MOUNTAINS...THIS TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE            
BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. THE OTHER                
SITES MAY EXPERIENCE SOME RAGGED TEMPORARY STRATUS...BUT IFR WILL               
NOT LIKELY BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL                
ENTER EASTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 07Z AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT               
PRECIPITATION. /GKOCH                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        42  31  43  25  43  25 /   0  40  10   0   0   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  44  33  43  27  43  26 /  10  50  40  10   0   0                 
PULLMAN        46  36  45  28  46  28 /   0  30  30  10   0   0                 
LEWISTON       51  38  50  30  51  30 /   0  10  20  10   0   0                 
COLVILLE       39  31  41  23  39  24 /  10  40  10   0   0   0                 
SANDPOINT      43  32  41  27  42  24 /  20  50  30  10   0   0                 
KELLOGG        40  34  39  29  40  27 /  40  40  40  20   0   0                 
MOSES LAKE     46  31  48  26  45  26 /   0  20   0   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      42  35  46  28  42  27 /   0  20   0   0   0   0                 
OMAK           41  32  44  24  42  24 /   0  30   0   0   0   0                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP TROF OVER ERN            
NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. COLD NNW FLOW (12Z H85             
TEMP -25C AT YPL VS -18C AT GRB) BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES JUST E OF LK               
WINNIPEG AND LO PRES OVER SE CAN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF             
LK SUP (5C OVER THE W TO 8C OVER THE E PER GLERL ANALYSIS) CONTINUES            
TO GENERATE LK EFFECT SHSN ACRS UPR MI. THE HEAVIER SHSN ARE NOTED              
OVER THE E HALF WITH LONGER FETCH AVBL OVER THE WATER AS WELL AS                
SOME MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON OF FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON 12Z               
YPL RAOB. BUT LES ALSO CONTINUES OVER THE W DESPITE LO INVRN BASE               
ARND H9-925 AS SHOWN ON 12Z RAOB FM INL AND 12Z TAMDAR SDNG FM YQT.             
LES BANDS ARE MORE WELL DVLPD TDAY THAN YDAY OVER THE W WITH SOME               
CONFLUENCE BTWN LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF NW WI AND MORE NNW FLOW OVER               
WRN LK AS WELL AS SHALLOW MSTR BLO THE INVRN BASE SHOWN ON INL RAOB             
SUPPORTING AREA OF SC/-SN OVER NE MN MAKING BANDS A BIT MORE WELL               
DEFINED. CALLS TO SPOTTERS IN ONTONAGON COUNTY SUG THE SN UNDER THE             
BANDS IS RELATIVELY LGT WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH EVERY 3-4 HOURS               
DESPITE RELATIVELY LO VSBYS AT TIMES SHOWN BY CMX/IWD OBS. A SHRTWV             
IS NOTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS RIDING THRU THE MEAN UPR RDG AXIS.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT THRU SAT)...                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/NEED TO CHG GOING                   
HEADLINES. FOCUS FOR SAT SHIFTS TO MAINLY TEMPS WITH SFC HI PRES RDG            
TO THE W FCST FINALLY TO EASE INTO THE GRT LKS.                                 
FOR TNGT...LOOK FOR RISING UPR HGTS AS LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW UPR             
TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA GRDLY EDGING EWD...ALLOWING SFC RDG AXIS TO              
THE W TO DRIFT INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS/             
LOWERING INVRN BASE WITH APRCH OF RDG...EXPECT LES BANDS IN THE NW              
WINDS SN BELTS THIS EVNG TO GRDLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. ONCE WINDS                  
REALLY DIMINISH AFT 06Z...SOME MESOSCALE WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN TO              
SHOW UP. LOCAL WRF-ARW/12Z NAM/12Z CNDN AND ESPECIALLY THE RUC13                
SHOW NE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO ENHANCING THE LLVL CNVGC IN ALGER               
COUNTY WITH VORTEX DVLPG NEAR P53. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OVER THE WRN            
COUNTIES THAT CONFLUENCE BTWN DVLPG LAND BREEZE OFF NW WI/SLY FLOW              
TO THE W OF SFC RDG AXIS AND LINGERING NNW FLOW OVER CNTRL LK SUP               
MAY GENERATE BAND OF SHSN IN THAT AREA THAT GRDLY SHIFTS TO THE NE              
WITH SYNOPTIC WSHFT TO THE SSW. WL CARRY NO MORE THAN CHC POPS FOR              
THIS EVENT OVER THE W GIVEN RELATIVELY LO INVRN BASE THERE ALREADY.             
BUT WL MAINTAIN HIER LIKELY POPS IN ALGER COUNTY FOR A LONGER PD. AS            
FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING ENDING TIME OF 03Z FOR LUCE             
COUNTY BUT EXTENDED GOING/VERIFIED WRNGS FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT              
LONGER TO ACCOUNT FOR PSBL SHARPER CNVGC IN PRESENCE OF HIER INVRN              
(ARND H825 THRU 09Z SAT AT P53 PER NAM FCST) THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED             
OVER THE W. OTRW...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR THE WI BORDER               
WHERE CLRG IS MOST LIKELY AWAY FM LK SUP. WL TEND AOB THE LO END OF             
MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS TO INCLUDE SOME SUB ZERO READINGS. MORE             
NLY H925 FLOW OFF LK SUP MAY MAINTAIN MORE CLD/HIER TEMPS OVER THE              
NCNTRL.                                                                         
AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E ON SAT WITH A SLOW DEPARTURE OF             
THE ERN TROF...THE LLVL FLOW WL TURN TO THE S AND END LINGERING LES.            
OTRW...FCST SDNGS SHOW DRY LLVLS. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLD ON THE              
NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT IS PROGGED TO                
DROP SEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST...THE DAY WL BE MOSUNNY. THE DAY WL              
BE WARMER THAN TDAY WITH DEPARTURE OF H85 THERMAL TROF...BUT HI                 
STABILITY OF FCST SDNGS/TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS AFTN IN THE NRN               
PLAINS SUG THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS WL BE MORE                   
APPROPRIATE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                    
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLE                 
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES. 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT (900-750 MB) MAY PROVIDE                 
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...PER MDL RH FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME                  
PATCHY -FZDZ OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA BTWN 06Z-18Z/SUN AS THE              
THE MOISTURE REMAINS BLO THE -8C ISOTHERM. WITH WSW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE            
AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WOULD BE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY FRZG             
PCPN. BY LATE SUNDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO WRN UPPER                  
MI...PER LCLY RUN REGIONAL WRF/ARW AND THE GFS SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO             
MODERATE QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE             
NRN PLAINS.                                                                     
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PER 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...A               
SHRTWV TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE GREAT            
LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS AND MODERATE QG FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL               
LOW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO              
EARLY MON. BEHIND THE LOW...SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE             
WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO                 
AROUND -8C. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY/LIFT FCST...MAINLY LIGHT             
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.                                                
TUESDAY...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY                  
REMAIN NEAR -10C...PER ECMWF/GFS BLEND...ANY LES SHOULD REMAIN ON               
THE LIGHT SIDE.                                                                 
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN                
LAKES BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY BY THE END OF THE                
WEEK INCREASES WITH THE PATH/SPEED OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING            
SSE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...THE GLOBAL MDLS AND GFS                   
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THAT ANY PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD BE AFTER THE            
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE THRU TNGT WITH LLVL MSTR IN            
NW FLOW UNDER RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVRN. THERE WL BE -SHSN WITH SOME             
OCNL IFR VSBYS THIS AFTN...BUT GRDL INFUSION OF DRIER LLVL AIR WITH             
ARPCH OF RDG AXIS FM THE W WL TEND TO MAINTAIN VFR VSBYS. THE ONLY              
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE TNGT FOR A TIME WHEN LAND BREEZE CNVGC ALLOWS             
FOR MORE SGNFT -SHSN FOR A FEW HRS. CONDITIONS WL BE VFR ON SAT WITH            
DRY SLY FLOW TO THE W OF RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE E.                             
AT SAW...GENERALLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN WL TEND TOWARD MVFR WITH                  
COMBINATION OF LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN/VEERING FLOW TO MORE NNE               
JUST ABV THE SFC WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG TO CAUSE DVLPMNT OF LOWER            
CIG. MOIST LYR NEAR INVRN BASE/NEAR SFC LYR WL BE TOO SHALLOW/DRY               
FOR ANY LES. CONDITIONS WL BE VFR ON SAT WITH DRY SLOW FLOW TO THE W            
OF RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE E.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                
WILL PUSH A RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH                 
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH              
THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE. AS THE HIGH MOVES                  
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN THE SOUTHEAST...A LOW OVER THE                  
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW                
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. NORTH            
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY             
INTO TUESDAY...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF.              
LOOK FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT                
LAKES FROM THE PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE               
STRONG NORTH WINDS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-085.              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007.             
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC                                                        
LONG TERM...JLB                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 500 AM EST                                             
SEVERAL HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.  THIS SEEMS                  
REASONABLE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY                     
FLOW...AND GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM.  CONVERGENCE EAST INCREASES              
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE              
MOST DOMINATE BAND ON THE RADAR LOOKS TO STRETCH ALMOST PARALLEL TO             
MARQUETTE COUNTY...CROSSING INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...AND OVER                
EBEN JUNCTION AND JUST EAST OF TRENARY.  AN EASTERN PUSH TO THESE               
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.                                                      
INCORPORATED BS ON LAND WHERE WIND GUSTS WHERE GREATER THAN                     
22KT...WHICH ENDED UP BEING MAINLY THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.             
ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS IS WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END             
OVER THE CWA.  OUT WEST...FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS COULD BE AS EARLY             
AS 12Z THIS MORNING AS WNW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SIGNIFICANTLY             
LESSENING THE FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE RUC IS QUICKEST TO                 
ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND OVER GOGEBIC AND SOUTHERN ONTONAGON                   
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW TAKES A BIT LONGER TO GET TO                  
ONTONAGON COUNTY...WITH MODELS SHOWING 00Z AS THE CUT OFF POINT.                
ADDING TO THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVING MAINLY EST OF            
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...ENHANCING SNOWFALL             
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.                                      
TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE                  
VALUES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR TODAY.  A BLEND SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT...AS THE NAM/MET DROPS TEMPERATURES TO 0F AND            
THE GFS/MAV DISPLAYS SINGLE DIGITS.                                             
OTHERWISE FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES             
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.  HAVE SECOND GUESSED THIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE              
OF THE SNOWPACK...AND IF THIS IS BEING HANDLED BY THE MODELS QUITE              
YET.                                                                            
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT.  IF WE             
DO GET PRECIPITATION A MIX SEEMS REALISTIC...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES              
RISE TO THE -5 OR -6C OFF THE NAM AND GFS.  THE 12Z/20 ECMWF WARMS              
TO -2 TO -3C OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE SAME                   
TIME...12Z SUNDAY.                                                              
INCREASED SKY COVER MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH TUESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY            
FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR -7 TO               
-10C.  BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WARM AIR WILL BE ENCROACHING                        
ALOFT...RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -6C OR WARMER...EFFECTIVELY                
MINIMIZING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CLOUD COVER.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT CMX...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE THRU TNGT WITH LLVL MSTR IN            
NW FLOW UNDER RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVRN. THERE WL BE -SHSN WITH SOME             
OCNL IFR VSBYS THIS AFTN...BUT GRDL INFUSION OF DRIER LLVL AIR WITH             
ARPCH OF RDG AXIS FM THE W WL TEND TO MAINTAIN VFR VSBYS. THE ONLY              
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE TNGT FOR A TIME WHEN LAND BREEZE CNVGC ALLOWS             
FOR MORE SGNFT -SHSN FOR A FEW HRS. CONDITIONS WL BE VFR ON SAT WITH            
DRY SLY FLOW TO THE W OF RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE E.                             
AT SAW...GENERALLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN WL TEND TOWARD MVFR WITH                  
COMBINATION OF LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN/VEERING FLOW TO MORE NNE               
JUST ABV THE SFC WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG TO CAUSE DVLPMNT OF LOWER            
CIG. MOIST LYR NEAR INVRN BASE/NEAR SFC LYR WL BE TOO SHALLOW/DRY               
FOR ANY LES. CONDITIONS WL BE VFR ON SAT WITH DRY SLOW FLOW TO THE W            
OF RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE E.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END BEFORE                
SUNRISE AS PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE                 
EDGING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS            
GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WINDS (AROUND 30KT)              
WILL DEVELOP MON THRU EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRES                 
DIVING SE THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR                
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALES            
COULD DEVELOP.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                     
   MIZ006-007-085.                                                              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
   MIZ014.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KF                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
249 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PER 20Z WATER                 
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE FOCUS LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 18                        
HOURS...AS IT CLOSES OFF AND SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN              
MN. ASSOCIATED 850-700MB OMEGA AND 2D FRONTOGENESIS BLOSSOM OVER                
THE SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 03Z...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL               
TO OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS.              
THE DYNAMICS...WHILE BRIEFLY IMPRESSIVE...ARE SOMEWHAT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE     
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF                
ONE INCH OR LESS STILL APPEAR REASONABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN                  
RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS/RUC PROGGED COBB                     
OUTPUTS FOR KFRM AND KRWF.                                                      
TEMPERATURES AT WESTERN CWA LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED               
IN THE LOW 20S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER                 
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO                
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL               
WI. LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL              
MODERATE TO AROUND FREEZING.                                                    
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING              
TROUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EXPECTED. THE                
RELATED COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY                              
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF               
AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH STREAMS ACROSS MN AND WI. THE                
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE 30                 
POPS WERE PRESERVED...WHILE 20 POPS WERE ADEQUATE ELSEWHERE.                    
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH              
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING                      
HOLIDAY...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXPERIENCES MID LEVEL RIDGING WHILE WEDGED       
BETWEEN CYCLONES OVER BOTH COASTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILING INTO TONIGHT WITH DEPARTING HIGH                
PRESSURE..AND DRY SSE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER...A            
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OVER MT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ESE TOWARD SE SD                  
AND NW IA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW OVER SW MN AND               
FAR SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT                  
KRWF WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 09Z. MVFR OR                 
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL                         
MN...INCLUDING KAXN...KSTC...AND KMSP. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY                   
DURING THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...SNOW                
IS FORECAST ONLY FOR KRWF...BUT VRY LIGHT SNOW WITH P6SM                        
CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT KMSP AND KSTC SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.                 
SSE WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15                  
KNOTS SUSTAINED. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE AT KRWF AND              
KAXN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/JPR                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
139 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A POLAR COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTH                
CAROLINA COAST WILL USHER ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR INTO THE               
REGION. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...                                                         
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A 1010 MB LOW ABOUT 100 MILES                
EAST OF CAPE FEAR NC. STRONG (1040 MB) HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED               
OVER EASTERN KS/OK AND MO/AR. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING WAS QUITE                    
COLD...WITH VERY STEEP (DRY ADIABATIC) LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC                 
THROUGH 750MB AND A 1000-850MB THICKNESS OF 1286M. ALOFT...AS OF 17Z            
THE LATEST RUC FORECAST DATA AND WV IMAGERY SHOW THE POTENT H5                  
SHORT WAVE BEGINNING TO ASSUME A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE                   
TILT AS IT BEGINS TO CROSS CENTRAL NC.                                          
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON:                                                         
FORECAST PRIMARILY ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS                
THROUGH ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE                      
TRIANGLE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ECHOES            
JUST NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THESE              
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO LINGERING                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ALLOWING                      
MARGINAL INSTABILITY) AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE POTENT                
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO GO NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES                
CENTRAL NC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY              
REMAIN IN FAR EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE UPPER LEVEL LIFT                  
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH                 
WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER PROGRESSIVELY DRYING THROUGH THE                          
DAY...WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND IS A              
VALID CONCERN. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FLURRIES OR A                         
BRIEF/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FROM THE TRIANGLE                       
NORTHEAST TO RZZ SOUTH TO GSB THROUGH 2 OR 3 PM (AT LATEST) THIS                
AFTERNOON. EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW... SINCE              
ANYTHING THAT IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD ALSO                   
ALLOW ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING / MELTING TO KEEP THERMAL                      
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 500 TO 1500 FEET NEAR FREEZING. WITH                     
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND A                  
NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (BASED ON                   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER)...                
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY/BLUSTERY OUTSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS              
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSE TO SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES               
BEGIN TO PLUMMET.                                                               
TONIGHT:                                                                        
*VERY* COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GIVEN A RATHER TIGHT                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL LIKELY                 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO                
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL            
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS            
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO               
EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST               
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO                 
RELAX. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS             
CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL FORECAST LOW             
TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM 19-24F ACROSS THE AREA.              
THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR RDU (23F SET IN 1987) COULD EASILY BE            
TIED OR BROKEN TONIGHT. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD AND              
THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT                  
FARTHER ALOFT... WHAT IS NOW A STRONG LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE                   
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES QUICKLY TO THE ESE... DAMPENING                
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT APPROACHES NC. BUT NEVERTHELESS THIS WAVE               
REMAINS OF RESPECTABLE STRENGTH AND SHOULD STILL BRING IN                       
APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO NC SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON FROM THE NW. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT ON THIS. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER... STARTING THE INCREASE IN            
THE LATE MORNING. THICKNESSES START TO REBOUND AS THE 850 MB WARM               
FRONT HEADS TO OUR NE AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...             
42-46... HARDLY NOTICEABLE THOUGH GIVEN THE FRIGID START TO THE DAY.            
CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS. FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S STILL LOOK             
GOOD.                                                                           
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND BROAD (BUT WEAK) RIDGING IN             
THE MID LEVELS. THICKNESSES RISE INTO THE 1290-1300 METER RANGE...              
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER... AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS STILL                
ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL... 52-57. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM             
OF INTEREST... A POLAR VORTEX... DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY            
NIGHT... AND MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS STARTS TO BECOME              
CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENS... AS THE SURFACE HIGHS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WE            
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD             
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS OF 28-32.                
-GIH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 455 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A COLD MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO              
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE            
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER ARRIVAL OF               
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE... AND HAVE             
HASTENED THE CLOUD COVER INCREASE AND RAISED POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON              
TO HIGH CHANCES IN THE NW CWA... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE               
SOUTHEAST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE            
COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY EAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE                
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING... AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF I-95 IS            
EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY                
MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGHS 55-62 MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES JUST 10-15 M                
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY 52-57... A MUCH LESS MODEST COOLING THAN            
WE`VE SEEN WITH THESE RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES... AS THE INCOMING             
SURFACE AIR MASS HAS ITS SOURCE IN THE PACIFIC AND ROCKIES RATHER               
THAN CANADA. MORNING LOWS 37-43.                                                
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY: STILL LOOKS QUIET AND COOL              
IN CENTRAL NC. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERIOR            
NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF... ALTHOUGH THE                 
ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH. OUR BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE             
FROM THE NW WITH LEE TROUGHING HOLDING ON THROUGH THE CWA. WILL                 
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED              
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -GIH                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
AS OF 140 PM...                                                                 
SNOW SHOWERS RAPIDLY DECREASING AND WILL END BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR              
CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED CLOUDS JUST BEFORE SUNSET.                       
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL END JUST                 
BEFORE SUNSET AS WELL...FALLING TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.               
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED                     
CUMULUS NEAR 5000 FEET DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.                              
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS AND                      
VISIBILITIES TO THE WEST SOMETIME MONDAY...SPREADING EAST DURING                
THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME IFR CEILINGS IN PRECIPITATION.              
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1206 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
BLUSTERY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL                
PASSAGE WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. COLDER THAN               
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...                                                         
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A 1010 MB LOW ABOUT 100 MILES                
EAST OF CAPE FEAR NC. STRONG (1040 MB) HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED               
OVER EASTERN KS/OK AND MO/AR. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING WAS QUITE                    
COLD...WITH VERY STEEP (DRY ADIABATIC) LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC                 
THROUGH 750MB AND A 1000-850MB THICKNESS OF 1286M. ALOFT...AS OF 17Z            
THE LATEST RUC FCST DATA AND WV IMAGERY SHOW THE POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE            
BEGINNING TO ASSUME A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS            
TO CROSS CENTRAL NC.                                                            
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON:                                                         
FORECAST PRIMARILY ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS                
THROUGH ROUGHLY 2-3 PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.               
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED PRECIP ECHOES JUST NORTH OF               
THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THESE CONVECTIVE SNOW            
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ALLOWING MARGINAL                       
INSTABILITY) AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE POTENT SHORTWAVE               
BEGINNING TO GO NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NC.              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN FAR            
EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL REMAIN                    
FAVORABLE LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH WITH A BOUNDARY             
LAYER PROGRESSIVELY DRYING THROUGH THE DAY...WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING            
ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND IS A VALID CONCERN. WILL LEAVE A                
SLIGHT CHANCE FLURRIES OR A BRIEF/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE FCST FROM            
THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST TO RZZ SOUTH TO GSB THROUGH 2-3 PM (AT                   
LATEST) THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...SINCE               
ANYTHING THAT IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO REACH THE GROUND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW             
ENOUGH EVAP COOLING / MELTING TO KEEP THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST            
500-1500 FT NEAR FREEZING. WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE                     
MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND A NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-20 MPH WITH             
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KTS IN THE            
MIXED LAYER)... IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY/BLUSTERY OUTSIDE FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSE TO SUNSET              
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET.                                                     
TONIGHT:                                                                        
*VERY* COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GIVEN A RATHER TIGHT                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL LIKELY                 
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO                
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL            
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS            
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO               
EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST               
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO                 
RELAX. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS             
CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL FCST LOW                 
TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM 19-24F ACROSS THE AREA.              
THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR RDU (23F SET IN 1987) COULD EASILY BE            
TIED OR BROKEN TONIGHT. -VINCENT                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD AND              
THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT                  
FARTHER ALOFT... WHAT IS NOW A STRONG LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE                   
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES QUICKLY TO THE ESE... DAMPENING                
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT APPROACHES NC. BUT NEVERTHELESS THIS WAVE               
REMAINS OF RESPECTABLE STRENGTH AND SHOULD STILL BRING IN                       
APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO NC SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON FROM THE NW. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT ON THIS. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER... STARTING THE INCREASE IN            
THE LATE MORNING. THICKNESSES START TO REBOUND AS THE 850 MB WARM               
FRONT HEADS TO OUR NE AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...             
42-46... HARDLY NOTICEABLE THOUGH GIVEN THE FRIGID START TO THE DAY.            
CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS. FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S STILL LOOK             
GOOD.                                                                           
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND BROAD (BUT WEAK) RIDGING IN             
THE MID LEVELS. THICKNESSES RISE INTO THE 1290-1300 METER RANGE...              
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER... AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS STILL                
ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL... 52-57. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM             
OF INTEREST... A POLAR VORTEX... DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY            
NIGHT... AND MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS STARTS TO BECOME              
CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENS... AS THE SURFACE HIGHS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WE            
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD             
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS OF 28-32.                
-GIH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 455 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A COLD MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO              
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE            
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER ARRIVAL OF               
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE... AND HAVE             
HASTENED THE CLOUD COVER INCREASE AND RAISED POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON              
TO HIGH CHANCES IN THE NW CWA... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE               
SOUTHEAST. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE            
COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY EAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE                
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING... AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF I-95 IS            
EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY                
MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGHS 55-62 MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES JUST 10-15 M                
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY 52-57... A MUCH LESS MODEST COOLING THAN            
WE`VE SEEN WITH THESE RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES... AS THE INCOMING             
SURFACE AIR MASS HAS ITS SOURCE IN THE PACIFIC AND ROCKIES RATHER               
THAN CANADA. MORNING LOWS 37-43.                                                
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY: STILL LOOKS QUIET AND COOL              
IN CENTRAL NC. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERIOR            
NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF... ALTHOUGH THE                 
ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH. OUR BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE             
FROM THE NW WITH LEE TROUGHING HOLDING ON THROUGH THE CWA. WILL                 
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED              
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -GIH                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
AS OF 740 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL               
CONTINUE TO PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING... ENDING AT RDU BY             
13-14Z AND FAY AND RWI BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE               
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT... WITH JUST SOME 4 TO 6 THSD FT                 
SCATTERED CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS... MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE                
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BECOME 15-20 KNOT SUSTAINED                
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 22 AND 28 KTS. THE              
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND BACK TO A                
MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AFTER SUNSET.                                 
ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AND                 
MONDAY NIGHT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY (NOVEMBER 22):                                         
RDU....23 (1987)                                                                
GSO....17 (2000)                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...MWS                                                                  
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD                                                             
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1145 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE                   
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS                  
AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO                  
WILL THEN VEER THESE WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS                 
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL                 
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INDUCING A                     
LEE SIDE LOW AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. BOTH RUC AND NAM MODELS               
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL               
REMAIN THERE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE                    
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR...MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA TO                  
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING THEN INTO                
IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO AID IN DEVELOPING A                   
LEE SIDE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WITH SURFACE HIGH ALSO               
MOVING TO THE EAST WILL HAVE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER               
THIS MORNING. WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS                  
SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE              
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WINDS EXPECTED              
TO BE MORE SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER. ALTHOUGH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE                
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS                
.LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN THIS MORNING.                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE                
ALOFT PROMOTES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                  
DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS FURTHER              
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
ALBERTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY PULLING THE              
NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THR0UGH THE AREA PRIOR TO                     
DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS CALL FOR MODEST SURFACE                   
PRESSURE RISES EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN BREEZY POST                    
FRONTAL WINDS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ALSO ANTICIPATED TO FALL ONLY                
MODESTLY.                                                                       
CONTINENTAL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN AMPLIFICATION AS A                
SERIES OF PACIFIC LOWS DIG ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST SENDING                    
HEIGHTS BACK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.                   
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INITIALLY WITH FLOW ALOFT                     
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD                     
IMPROVE WITH CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH                      
MOISTENING FOR PRECIPITATION CONSIDERATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY                
AS INITIAL DISTURBANCE SHEARS NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES FROM THE                 
CALIFORNIA COAST. TO US THIS WAVE LOOKS TOO OPEN WHILE ATMOSPHERE               
LIKELY WILL NEED MORE MOISTURE DEEPENING AS WELL.                               
ANOTHER STRONGER THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT OPEN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO                 
PROGRESS FROM THE WEST COAST OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THANKSGIVING                  
DAY. THIS WAVE HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY ON ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR THE               
PAST WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT HAS CREDIBILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT                 
INITIAL LOW END SHOWER CHANCES AS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE              
AS WELL. TEMPERATURE PROFILE CLEARLY FAVORS LIQUID THIS FAR OUT                 
AND ALSO SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONVECTIVE. THIS WAVE                    
SHOULD LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...             
WITH MODEL TIMING ISSUES FACTORING INTO UNCERTAINTY. MCQUEEN                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        46  26  62  31  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
TULIA         45  26  61  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     45  27  61  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     45  28  62  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       46  29  61  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   46  30  64  35  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    47  30  63  33  72 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     48  29  59  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
SPUR          48  31  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     50  31  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
93/08                                                                           
</pre> tx