Log date 08_27_99_12:31:37
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============= Transaction # 3 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 5 ==============================================
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<DOC>
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<PROFILE>_AN-EBHC6AE5FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
208
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
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Types:-
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<TP>TECH  P
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<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
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============= Transaction # 9 ==============================================
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</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
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<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
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<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
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<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
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roducts & Product use.
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<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
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<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
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<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
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<XX>
Countr
ies:-
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<PAGE> London P
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208
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
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</XX>
<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
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<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
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============= Transaction # 12 ==============================================
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208
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DANIEL GREEN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
 protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
 reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
 the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Glaxo Holdings.
</CO>
<XX>
Countr
ies:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  P
roducts & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 24 </PAGE>
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============= Transaction # 13 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 14 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 15 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-11076</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHBDUAAYFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
802
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By ROBERT GRAHAM </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    ROME </DATELINE>
<TEX
T>
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
 almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>ITZ  Italy, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries
:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 17 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-11076</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHBDUAAYFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
802
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By ROBERT GRAHAM </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    ROME </DATELINE>
<TEX
T>
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
 almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>ITZ  Italy, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries
:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 18 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-11076</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHBDUAAYFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
802
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By ROBERT GRAHAM </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    ROME </DATELINE>
<TEX
T>
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
 almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>ITZ  Italy, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries
:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 19 ==============================================
Transaction #:     19       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-9226</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHLDRAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
12
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany </HEADL
INE>
<BYLINE>    By JUDY DEMPSEY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
 the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
 its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
 guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
 is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
 east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
 - the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
 Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
 than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
 on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
 women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
 in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
 the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
 solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germany, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMM
T  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 20 ==============================================
Transaction #:     20       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-9226</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHLDRAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
12
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany </HEADL
INE>
<BYLINE>    By JUDY DEMPSEY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
 the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
 its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
 guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
 is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
 east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
 - the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
 Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
 than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
 on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
 women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
 in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
 the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
 solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germany, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
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Types:-
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<TP>CMM
T  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 21 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9688</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBNCXAAEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    M
OSCOW </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
 been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
 working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
 -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
 violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
 cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
 from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
 More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, East
 Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 1 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 22 ==============================================
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<PROFILE>_AN-EBNCXAAEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    M
OSCOW </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
 been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
 working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
 -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
 violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
 cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
 from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
 More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, East
 Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 1 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 23 ==============================================
Transaction #:     23       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-9226</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EHLDRAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
12
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany </HEADL
INE>
<BYLINE>    By JUDY DEMPSEY </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
 the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
 its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
 guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
 is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
 east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
 - the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
 Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
 than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
 on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
 women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
 in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
 the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
 solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
</TEX
T>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>DEZ  Germany, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMM
T  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London P
age 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 24 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9688</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBNCXAAEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOHN LLOYD </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    M
OSCOW </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
 been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
 working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
 -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
 violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
 cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
 from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
 More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>RUZ  Russia, East
 Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99   Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 1 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 25 ==============================================
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  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5793</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EICAFABGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 SEP 94 / Falling prosperity hurts family planni
ng </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PAUL ADAMS </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    LAGOS </DAT
ELINE>
<TEXT>
In a continent where population growth outstrips economic grow
th, Nigeria at
90m people is by far the biggest nation in Africa.
Until 1988
, when Prof Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, then health minister, launched a
national
population policy, Nigerians had been so proud of their self-styled
tag as t
he 'giant of Africa' that, as long as the oil money rolled in, they
regarded
 high population growth as healthy and saw little point in
controlling the r
ate of growth.
Nigeria was then believed to have at least 110m people, putti
ng it among the
10 largest populations in the world. The 1991 census caused
a surprise:
Nigeria had only 88.5m. The over-estimate was a result of inflat
ed numbers
by tribal chiefs and regional governors hoping to boost their pol
itical
clout and revenue allocation.
The United Nations Population Fund has
projected the average population
growth rate between 1990 and 1995 as 3.1 pe
r cent (which would double the
population in about 30 years) with the birth
rate at 45 per 1,000 persons
and death rate at 14 per 1,000 (including an in
fant mortality rate of 96).
The UN estimates the fertility rate at 6.1 child
ren per woman, while the
national policy set a target of only four. Since th
e 1970s the urban
population has risen from 30 per cent to nearly half and t
he rate of growth
in the towns is higher at 5.5 per cent.
Generalising about
 Nigeria, a country of over 200 ethnic groups and very
diverse cultures, is
often deceptive and never more so than in attitudes to
education and the rol
e of women.
In the mainly Christian south, female education and literacy are
 far higher
than in the predominantly Moslem north, where even the discussio
n of birth
control is not widely accepted.
In the south-east there is a high
 percentage of Catholics especially among
the Ibo tribe. The alarming declin
e in social services during the 1990s has
halted the progress towards family
 planning clinics and universal primary
education, especially in the north,
bolstering the influence of the Koranic
schools.
Even nationally, the UN pai
nts a bleak picture. 'The status of women in
Nigeria has improved little ove
r the last decade. In general, they are
considered second-class citizens not
 by law but because of the social and
cultural climate', says the UNFPA's 19
93 review of the national programme.
The literacy rate for women was 31 per
cent (54 per cent for men) and more
than half of all Nigerian women were mar
ried at the age of 15.
The problem of education lies not just with women. As
 a prominent women's
group in Nigeria points out, there may be a target of f
our children per
woman, but in a polygamous society many men far exceed that
 figure.
If the prospect of curtailing population growth is limited, the out
look for
economic growth has become bleak. Despite the massive oil boom in t
he 1970s,
the GDP income per capita is down to around Dollars 290, about the
 level of
1963. In the period, Indonesia has risen from a lower per capita i
ncome to a
level three times that of Nigeria.
In January's budget speech the
 finance minister, Mr Kalu I Kalu, commented
on three years of political unc
ertainty, capital flight government
over-spending, which 'resulted in a furt
her decline in GDP growth rate from
4.8 per cent in 1991 to 2.9 per cent in
1993. A comparison with the average
growth rate of 5 per cent from 1988-91 d
emonstrates the enormity of the task
involved in resuscitating the economy i
n 1994 and beyond,' concluded Mr
Kalu.
Since then strikes, shortages and a d
earth of foreign exchange have taken
the economy further down hill. Nigeria
accounts for about half of West
Africa's population and whereas Ghanaians on
ce poured into Nigeria for a
better life, the chances of reverse migration l
ook more likely.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>NGZ  Nigeria, Africa.
</
CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Health Progra
ms.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financia
l Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 26 ==============================================
Transaction #:     26       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DATE>930
122
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDWARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
 exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
 will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XMZ  Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99  N
onclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>PEOP  Personnel
News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</D
OC>
============= Transaction # 27 ==============================================
Transaction #:     27       Transaction Code:  38 (Record Deselected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DATE>930
122
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDWARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
 exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
 will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XMZ  Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99  N
onclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>PEOP  Personnel
News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</D
OC>
============= Transaction # 28 ==============================================
Transaction #:     28       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DATE>930
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</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDWARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
 exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
 will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XMZ  Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99  N
onclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>PEOP  Personnel
News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</D
OC>
============= Transaction # 29 ==============================================
Transaction #:     29       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DATE>930
122
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EDWARD MORTIMER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
 exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
 will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XMZ  Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P99  N
onclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>PEOP  Personnel
News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</D
OC>
============= Transaction # 30 ==============================================
Transaction #:     30       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<PROFILE>_AN-EEIC5AC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
509
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  09 MAY 94 / Observer: Green surprise </HEADLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe's 'green' parties come in all sorts of political shades, but n
one
comes near to matching the performance of the Hungarian 'greens'. Instea
d of
campaigning for population control, the Hungarian greens' TV broadcasts
 call
on Hungarian men to do the 'daily triple' with their wives.
The party
does not spell out in detail what it is Hungarian men should do
three times
a day. But party officials believe it would 'increase the birth
rate and lea
d to a decline in homosexuality, prostitution and the divorce
rate'.
However
, this brave rallying cry has yet to capture the imagination of the
Hungaria
n electorate. Early returns suggest that the party has as much
chance of cap
turing a seat as Britain's Screaming Lord Sutch.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</
XX>
<CN>HUZ  Hungary, East Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P8651 P
olitical Organizations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  General News.
</T
P>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 31 ==============================================
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<PROFILE>_AN-EHRD3AAZFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9408
18
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
 low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
 roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
 6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin A
merica.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics
.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 32 ==============================================
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18
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
 low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
 roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
 6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin A
merica.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics
.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 33 ==============================================
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<HEADLINE> FT  18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
 low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
 roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
 6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin A
merica.
    XAZ  World.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics
.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 34 ==============================================
Transaction #:     34       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-5357</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIECYAA8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old
age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall </
HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANGUS FOSTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Brazil looks set to e
nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'.
According to projections ma
de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m
by the year 2000. But accor
ding to latest predictions, the total will be far
less, probably 172m.
The r
easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in
other La
tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female
fertility rate
s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid
urbanisation. The
 consequences, which include an ageing society and serious
strains on social
 and employment needs, have not yet been addressed.
'It is the population ab
ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades.
Brazil will have to liv
e with this phenomenon, which is well known in
developed countries, without
having overcome typical problems related to
under-development,' says demogra
phics professor Jose de Carvalho.
Brazil's population change started in the
1940s. Improved medical and basic
services led to falling mortality rates. F
ertility rates remained high until
the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po
pulation growth and a society with
more than half its members under 20 years
 old.
It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was
blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first
i
nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's
population
 was 100m and expected to double rapidly.
But the female fertility rate - th
e average number of births per
child-bearing woman - began a startling fall
from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975
and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa
ulo state, Brazil's richest, the
fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d
eveloped countries.
The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa
tion, as families
moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r
eason was
increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe
r cent of
women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr
aceptive.
Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p
er cent
used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent.
These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic
cou
ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal
unless t
he woman has been raped or is in medical danger.
Officially, the church prom
otes the Billings method, which teaches couples
to avoid sex during ovulatio
n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the
church is, unofficially, more l
iberal than it appears or losing its sway.
Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos
e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao
Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If
a couple asked advice on sterilisation,
which is rare, I would take into acc
ount their economic situation and number
of children, the love between them
and whether another method is possible.
'But the couple must decide, and tha
t's something we should not and cannot
try to stop. And their decision has t
o be supported, too. This might be
criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea
ling with people in real
situations,' he says.
The increasing demand for ste
rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has
helped make Brazil the world
 leader for caesarian births. These account for
roughly one in three deliver
ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales.
The reasons are complex. So
me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way
to give birth, a view hospit
als encourage, while others fear the pain
involved in vaginal deliveries. An
other reason is that when giving birth by
caesarian, a woman can request to
be sterilised at the same time and the
government pays. Outside pregnancy, w
omen have to pay to be sterilised,
usually at semi-legal clinics.
The declin
ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades.
Population gro
wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9
per cent and is
still declining.
Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde
r 15 years old.
By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By
about 2040, with
a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22
0m and stabilise
or even fall.
This prompts the church and other anti-aborti
on groups to argue that
population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi
ally given the country's
undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula
tion will also allow
better government planning. In the past, rapid populati
on growth in cities,
for example, has prevented governments developing long-
term urban plans.
But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges
. The number of
people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for
 the next
decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs.
The soc
ial security system, established when the average age at death was
45, must
be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and
women re
spectively.
The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p
reventative
medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei
ng
population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families
will need extra services.
Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware
of these challenges.
Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990
 census was postponed
to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi
ngs are available.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>BRZ  Brazil, South Ame
rica.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administration of Public Healt
h Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PU
B>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 5 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 35 ==============================================
Transaction #:     35       Transaction Code:  14 (Search Results Displayed)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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============= Transaction # 36 ==============================================
Transaction #:     36       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-14657</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CAOBBABPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920
115
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 JAN 92 / The Lex Column: UK economy </HEADLINE
>
<TEXT>
The trouble with declining inflation is that it is a mixed blessing
 when
nominal interest rates are stuck at a high level. Yesterday's UK produ
cer
price figures showed both a healthy decline - to a year-on-year rate of
3.8
per cent - in underlying output price inflation and a welcome 12-month d
rop
in input prices. Admittedly the data only cover the manufacturing sector
:
services inflation is more stubborn, thanks to the likes of British Rail
w
ith its annual fare increases.
But producer price trends still point in theo
ry to a gentle economic
stimulus from declining manufacturing costs and to s
cope for an eventual
sharp fall in interest rates as decelerating wholesale
inflation feeds
through to the retail level. All the more so, since the annu
al rate of
producer price increases should fall even more sharply next month
 as last
January's exceptionally large 1.2 per cent rise falls out of the eq
uation.
Unfortunately membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism means UK int
erest
rates are affected less by domestic inflation than by their differenti
al
with those of Germany. Recent French experience suggests that is unlikely
 to
change even if headline UK inflation falls below that of Germany in Febr
uary
or March. With a showdown over wages looming in the German steel indust
ry,
the Bundesbank is unlikely to start cutting rates soon. Until it does,
d
eclining inflation in the UK will simply mean higher real interest rates.
Th
at in turn is likely to negate any economic benefit from weak commodity
pric
es.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 20 </PAGE>
</
DOC>
============= Transaction # 37 ==============================================
Transaction #:     37       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9415</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBODHADOFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GARRET FITZGERALD </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth
over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost
three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
 the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
 equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
 Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
 a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
 people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
 the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
 disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
 force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
 in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
 -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Ireland           UK
 ----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP
             +26           +2
GDP per worker                         +23
       +6.5
Total employment manufacturing          +3           -4.5
Employ
ment                              +5          -18
Real wages
             +16           +9
Consumer prices                        +13
      +30.5
Investment                             +11.5         -7.5
Person
al consumption                   +16           +3.5
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public
borrowing                         2.5          7.2
Current external balance
               +6.5         -2.3
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>IEZ  Irelan
d, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
    ECON  Gross d
omestic product.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Time
s </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 38 ==============================================
Transaction #:     38       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-9415</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EBODHADOFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9402
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By GARRET FITZGERALD </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth
over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost
three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
 the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
 equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
 Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
 a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
 people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
 the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
 disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
 force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
 in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
 ------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
 -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Ireland           UK
 ----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP
             +26           +2
GDP per worker                         +23
       +6.5
Total employment manufacturing          +3           -4.5
Employ
ment                              +5          -18
Real wages
             +16           +9
Consumer prices                        +13
      +30.5
Investment                             +11.5         -7.5
Person
al consumption                   +16           +3.5
 -----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
 ---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public
borrowing                         2.5          7.2
Current external balance
               +6.5         -2.3
 ------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>IEZ  Irelan
d, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
    ECON  Gross d
omestic product.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Time
s </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 17 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 39 ==============================================
Transaction #:     39       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-1806</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXCKAG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste
rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELIN
E>
<TEXT>
WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr
ants in
1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w
hich
opens today in Geneva, is to be told.
The total, mainly relatives joini
ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of
asylum seekers, is higher than the p
revious peak in the early 1960s,
according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe
r at Oxford University.
Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial
 to their host
countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo
ur problems.
'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western
Europe is
actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future
labour
demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa
ctor
behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri
es,
he adds.
The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last
 year.
Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro
pean
total.
But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t
aking the
brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema
n says.
An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w
estward
migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea
rly 2bn
in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s
outh
Asia in the next 12 years.
The conference, one of five regional debates
 before next year's UN World
Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to
call for more money to be
spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop
ulation growth in
developing countries.
The UN Population Fund wants the tot
al amount of money spent each year to
double from the present level of Dolla
rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed
countries contribute only Dollars 800m
of the total, and the Population Fund
the main UN family planning agency, ha
s seen its budget frozen at Dollars
238m.
The conference will also hear warn
ings that current projections of the
world's population could need considera
ble revision.
By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh
ere between
5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi
c Commission
for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from
the present
5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit
y rates, he
said.
Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b
etween economic
development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase
 'Development is
the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state
s have seen
fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r
ate were
maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro
und 1.7,
despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T
hailand,
Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite
 low
prosperity levels.
Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati
ons in birth rate. East
German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German
 unification compared to
West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because
of uncertainty. However
the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou
ght to be responsible
for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We
st German levels.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
    CAZ  C
anada.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>GOVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
 </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 40 ==============================================
Transaction #:     40       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-1806</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXCKAG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste
rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELIN
E>
<TEXT>
WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr
ants in
1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w
hich
opens today in Geneva, is to be told.
The total, mainly relatives joini
ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of
asylum seekers, is higher than the p
revious peak in the early 1960s,
according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe
r at Oxford University.
Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial
 to their host
countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo
ur problems.
'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western
Europe is
actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future
labour
demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa
ctor
behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri
es,
he adds.
The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last
 year.
Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro
pean
total.
But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t
aking the
brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema
n says.
An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w
estward
migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea
rly 2bn
in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s
outh
Asia in the next 12 years.
The conference, one of five regional debates
 before next year's UN World
Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to
call for more money to be
spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop
ulation growth in
developing countries.
The UN Population Fund wants the tot
al amount of money spent each year to
double from the present level of Dolla
rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed
countries contribute only Dollars 800m
of the total, and the Population Fund
the main UN family planning agency, ha
s seen its budget frozen at Dollars
238m.
The conference will also hear warn
ings that current projections of the
world's population could need considera
ble revision.
By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh
ere between
5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi
c Commission
for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from
the present
5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit
y rates, he
said.
Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b
etween economic
development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase
 'Development is
the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state
s have seen
fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r
ate were
maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro
und 1.7,
despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T
hailand,
Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite
 low
prosperity levels.
Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati
ons in birth rate. East
German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German
 unification compared to
West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because
of uncertainty. However
the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou
ght to be responsible
for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We
st German levels.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
    CAZ  C
anada.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>GOVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
 </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 41 ==============================================
Transaction #:     41       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-388</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CI2B1AAKFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>92092
9
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  29 SEP 92 / The ERM and Maastricht: Swedish bank cu
ts overnight lending rate </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ROBERT TAYLOR </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    STOCKHOLM </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
SWEDEN'S central bank cut its ma
rginal overnight lending rate to commercial
banks from 50 per cent to 40 per
 cent yesterday in a cautious adjustment
towards a 'more normal interest rat
e level'.
It said the reduction had been made possible by declining turbulen
ce on the
international foreign exchange markets and a drop in Sweden's mone
y market
interest rates.
But Svenska Handelsbanken, a leading commercial ban
k, warned yesterday in
its latest economic forecast that for at least the ne
xt six months interest
rates would remain above the levels existing before t
he financial crisis
began.
However, it suggested a Swedish export recovery w
ould strengthen overseas
market confidence in the country's fixed exchange r
ate policy and the
interest rate differential rate between Sweden and German
y would narrow.
It predicts a further drop of 0.4 per cent in GNP next year
after an
estimated decline of 1.7 per cent this year. The forecast shows onl
y a
modest 1.5 per cent recovery in 1994.
It also predicts a sizeable declin
e in property investment of 46.5 per cent,
but a strong recovery in the trad
e balance and the balance of payments.
Swedes, however, will see real income
s fall next year by 1.9 per cent, with
only a 0.7 per cent improvement in 19
94.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 2 </PAGE>
</D
OC>
============= Transaction # 42 ==============================================
Transaction #:     42       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-13122</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EA0DIACDFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
127
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 JAN 94 / Family loses out in social changes: M
ore people live alone - Sharp increase in divorce rate </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>
   By ALAN PIKE, Social Affairs Correspondent </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
An apparently
 unequal struggle between the conventional family and social
and demographic
 change is shown today in Social Trends, the Central
Statistical Office's an
nual compendium of British life.
Political controversies over the future of
the welfare state and the causes
of crime have brought the role of tradition
al family values into sharp
focus. But Social Trends shows that, while the d
ebate continues, so does the
decline of the traditional family.
Couples with
 dependent children formed the majority of households as
recently as the ear
ly 1970s. By 1992 they constituted less than 40 per cent,
and it is now incr
easingly likely that such couples will not be married.
One significant reaso
n for the change is a growing proportion of people
living alone. Single peop
le now account for more than a quarter of all
households - there has been a
threefold increase in the proportion of people
living alone during the past
30 years.
The biggest recent growth has been among men of working age, but t
he ageing
of the population is another factor that will fuel a continuing in
crease in
single-person households. By the year 2031 there will be more than
 16m
people of pensionable age in Britain's population - more than double th
e
1961 number.
Recent years have seen an even more striking rise in the prop
ortion of
lone-parent families - these have quadrupled since the early 1960s
. The
government's General Household Survey, also published this week, shows
 that
21 per cent of families were headed by lone parents in 1992. The main
increase in single-parent households occurred during the 1970s and 1980s,
an
d there has been little further change in the proportion since 1990, the
gov
ernment's household survey adds.
Allied to this change is Social Trends' now
-familiar soaring graph showing
the remarkable rise in births outside marria
ge. Unmarried mothers now
account for almost one-in-three births - an increa
se from the one-in-20
level that, apart from the two world wars, had persist
ed throughout the
century until the 1960s. In Scotland and the north-east of
 England, 90 per
cent of mothers under 20 were unmarried in 1992.
The propor
tion of births outside marriage more than doubled during the 1980s
alone. Bu
t the children do not all grow up in single-parent families - in
1992, 75 pe
r cent of babies born outside marriage were registered by both
parents.
Divo
rce, as well as births outside marriage, is contributing to the growth
in si
ngle-parent households. Marriages have declined by nearly 16 per cent
during
 the past 20 years, while divorces have more than doubled.
Some politicians
hope that a renewed appreciation of the importance of
community involvement
will fill the gaps created by fragmenting family
relationships. However, evi
dence in Social Trends suggests that this may be
wishful thinking.
Surveys s
how that only 4 per cent of the population has taken an active part
in a pol
itical campaign. The proportion of churchgoers is, at 15 per cent,
lower tha
n in many other European countries.
Almost 75 per cent of the population has
 done no recent voluntary work. Some
of the active minority who do volunteer
 put in more than 10 hours a month -
but this compares with nearly 27 hours
a week spent by the average citizen
watching television.
Social Trends 24. H
MSO. Pounds 27.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P8732 Commercial Nonphysical Research.
</I
N>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>STATS  Statistics.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
</PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 8 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 43 ==============================================
Transaction #:     43       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-2767</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BD0APAD9FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9104
27
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 APR 91 / Fall in US output indicates recession
is growing worse </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By MICHAEL PROWSE </BYLINE>
<DATELI
NE>    WASHINGTON </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
TOTAL US output fell at an annual rate
of 2.8 per cent in the first quarter
of this year, confirming a worsening of
 the recession since Christmas, the
Commerce Department reported yesterday.
The fall in inflation-adjusted gross national product was larger than many
e
conomists expected and will provide further ammunition for the White House,
which is pressing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Earlier this we
ek, news of a 6 per cent decline in durable goods orders last
month dampened
 hopes of an early recovery from recession. Most forecasters,
however, still
 expect the recession to bottom out sometime during the
summer.
The 2.8 per
cent annual rate of decline in real GNP in the first quarter
follows an annu
al rate of decline of 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of
last year. Two s
uccessive quarterly declines in GNP - the conventional
yardstick of a recess
ion - were last registered during the 1981-82 downturn.
This week, the Natio
nal Bureau of Economic Research, a group of prominent
American economists, f
ormally dated the onset of recession to last July.
It said the business cycl
e peak of that month ended an expansion lasting 92
months, the longest since
 the 1960s and the second longest since 1854.
The bureau's pronouncements ca
rry considerable weight. However, its timing
of the onset of recession clash
es with that of the White House and Federal
Reserve. Both have argued that I
raq's invasion of Kuwait in August - and the
subsequent rise in oil prices a
nd collapse of consumer confidence -
triggered the recession.
The first-quar
ter figures indicate that the profile of the recession is
changing. Personal
 consumption spending, which accounts for about two thirds
of economic activ
ity, declined at an annual rate of only 1.4 per cent,
compared with 3.4 per
cent in the final quarter of last year.
But the positive impact of this slow
ing in the decline of consumption was
offset by a sharp downturn in capital
spending and a stalling of export
growth.
Non-residential fixed investment d
eclined at an annual rate of 14 per cent
in the first quarter compared with
growth of 0.1 per cent in the fourth
quarter of last year.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The
Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 44 ==============================================
Transaction #:     44       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOCNO>FT931-12270</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DA3AKAD0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
129
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  29 JAN 93 / S Africa inflation at 15-year low </H
EADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PHILIP GAWITH </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    JOHANNESBURG <
/DATELINE>
<TEXT>
SOUTH AFRICA'S inflation rate has dropped into single figu
res for the first
time in nearly 15 years, reviving hopes of a turnround in
the economy,
writes Philip Gawith in Johannesburg.
Figures released by the C
entral Statistical Service (CSS) show that the rate
of inflation, measured b
y the consumer price index, declined to 9.6 per cent
in December from 11 per
 cent in November. This is the lowest rate of
inflation since June 1978. The
 CPI declined by five percentage points in the
second half of 1992, having s
tood at 16.2 at the end of 1991.
Economists have long been predicting a furt
her drop in interest rates, and
the most recent inflation figures have bolst
ered their case.
Dr Chris Stals, governor of the Reserve Bank, said yesterda
y that the bank
was re-examining its monetary policy - often a signal for a
cut in rates.
The prime lending rate currently stands at 17.25 per cent.
Mr
Dave Mohr, chief economist at the Old Mutual group, said the decline in
the
inflation rate, which was sharper than predicted, was partly a function
of l
arge increases in the CPI in the second half of 1991, and partly the
result
of very small increases in the corresponding period in 1992. He cited
lower
meat and vegetable prices, and falling mortgage rates as important
contribut
ory factors.
Other factors include a fairly strong exchange rate, and firm m
onetary
policy with real interest rates now running at about 7.5 per cent.
M
r Mohr said inflation, which is a lagging indicator, reflected the weak
stat
e of the economy for most of 1992.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>ZAZ  S
outh Africa, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311  Finance, Taxat
ion, and Monetary Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>ECON  Inflation.
ECON  Gross domestic product.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> L
ondon Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 45 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 46 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-2291</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BEABLAA0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9105
01
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  01 MAY 91 / Migrants halt decline in Scottish popu
lation </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JAMES BUXTON, Scottish Correspondent </BYL
INE>
<TEXT>
THE long-running gentle decline in the Scottish population was r
eversed last
year for the first time since the mid-1970s as Scotland, normal
ly a reliable
source of emigrants, received an influx of migrants.
In the ye
ar to June 30 1990 the estimated population rose by 11,700 to
5,102,400, acc
ording to Scotland's registrar general.
A net 13,500 people migrated into Sc
otland, most of them from the rest of
Britain, but also from abroad.
This of
fset a natural fall in the population of 1,400 caused by a high
number of de
aths from influenza in the winter of 1989-90 and a relatively
low number of
births.
The gradual decline in the Scottish population and, until recently,
high
levels of emigration have long been a matter of concern to the governme
nt,
as well as a source of political point scoring by opposition parties,
no
tably the Scottish National party.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<
PAGE> London Page 8 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 47 ==============================================
Transaction #:     47       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-2291</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BEABLAA0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9105
01
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  01 MAY 91 / Migrants halt decline in Scottish popu
lation </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JAMES BUXTON, Scottish Correspondent </BYL
INE>
<TEXT>
THE long-running gentle decline in the Scottish population was r
eversed last
year for the first time since the mid-1970s as Scotland, normal
ly a reliable
source of emigrants, received an influx of migrants.
In the ye
ar to June 30 1990 the estimated population rose by 11,700 to
5,102,400, acc
ording to Scotland's registrar general.
A net 13,500 people migrated into Sc
otland, most of them from the rest of
Britain, but also from abroad.
This of
fset a natural fall in the population of 1,400 caused by a high
number of de
aths from influenza in the winter of 1989-90 and a relatively
low number of
births.
The gradual decline in the Scottish population and, until recently,
high
levels of emigration have long been a matter of concern to the governme
nt,
as well as a source of political point scoring by opposition parties,
no
tably the Scottish National party.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<
PAGE> London Page 8 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 48 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-5103</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFBA3ADDFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
02
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  02 JUN 92 / Survey of The Earth Summit (8): Popula
tion surge is a crucial issue - There may well be 10bn people on the earth b
y the year 2050 </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By HILARY DE BOERR </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
THE WORLD'S population is growing at an unprecedented rate, consuming more
r
esources than ever - nearly a billion people will be added to the planet
dur
ing the 1990s, according to the Worldwatch Institute. As the number of
poor
people is increasing, human migration is growing and renewable
resources, su
ch as water and land are increasingly under threat.
Such realities make the
population issue a crucial one for sustainable
development. There are about
5.5bn people in the world, with an average
annual increase of 97m projected
for the coming decade. International
experts agree that population growth ra
tes will have to be reduced, and the
pattern of human activities changed, if
 ecological catastrophe is to be
averted.
The two go hand-in-hand because it
 is not simply high population growth
rates that are threatening the environ
ment. Developed countries, with
relatively low birth rates, consume most of
the world's resources. A
Bangladeshi, for example, consumes energy equivalen
t to three barrels of oil
a year, a US citizen 55 barrels.
As Oxfam puts it:
 'Industrialised countries generate significantly more
damage per person to
the global environment than do people in developing
countries.'
Sustainable
development therefore calls for a fairer distribution of the
benefits of dev
elopment among the world's people.
High population growth rates in developin
g countries - where 80 per cent of
the world's population lives - will, neve
rtheless, put even greater pressure
on the world's resources.
The higher the
 population in developing countries, the higher their energy
use and polluti
on, especially as economies develop. More water is needed,
more forests are
cleared, inappropriate agricultural practices increase and
wildlife species
disappear. Population growth in developing countries is
responsible for abou
t 79 per cent of deforestation, 72 per cent of arable
land expansion and 69
per cent of the growth in livestock numbers.
Such problems are further compo
unded by the increasing migration of people -
to urban areas and to environm
entally sensitive inland areas - in search of
productive land and jobs.
Addr
essing high birth rates means addressing poverty in such countries, say
inte
rnational agencies. More than 1bn people live in absolute poverty
without ad
equate food, clothing or housing.
North-South relationships regarding debt,
trade, aid and technology transfer
are seen as longer-term means of tackling
 poverty. Programmes to tackle high
birth rates focus on improving third wor
ld health and education, and
providing readily available and affordable fami
ly planning.
Practice shows that birth rates can be reduced voluntarily by r
aising the
status of women through education and providing them with opportu
nities
other than the traditional child bearing role. It is thought that mor
e than
one in five births in developing countries may be unwanted.
The worst
 case scenario for the population explosion is that there could be
12.5bn pe
ople in the world by 2050 if immediate action is not taken. The
most likely
scenario is a figure of 10bn people.
Fertility patterns can change in just o
ne decade. Development and
consumption patterns will have to follow suit, sa
ys the United Nations
Population Fund.
'World resources are adequate for the
 sustained development of the planet -
if they are carefully used,' it warns
.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page V </PAGE>
</DOC
>
============= Transaction # 49 ==============================================
Transaction #:     49       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-1806</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DCXCKAG8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9303
23
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste
rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELIN
E>
<TEXT>
WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr
ants in
1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w
hich
opens today in Geneva, is to be told.
The total, mainly relatives joini
ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of
asylum seekers, is higher than the p
revious peak in the early 1960s,
according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe
r at Oxford University.
Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial
 to their host
countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo
ur problems.
'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western
Europe is
actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future
labour
demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa
ctor
behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri
es,
he adds.
The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last
 year.
Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro
pean
total.
But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t
aking the
brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema
n says.
An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w
estward
migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea
rly 2bn
in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s
outh
Asia in the next 12 years.
The conference, one of five regional debates
 before next year's UN World
Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to
call for more money to be
spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop
ulation growth in
developing countries.
The UN Population Fund wants the tot
al amount of money spent each year to
double from the present level of Dolla
rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed
countries contribute only Dollars 800m
of the total, and the Population Fund
the main UN family planning agency, ha
s seen its budget frozen at Dollars
238m.
The conference will also hear warn
ings that current projections of the
world's population could need considera
ble revision.
By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh
ere between
5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi
c Commission
for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from
the present
5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit
y rates, he
said.
Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b
etween economic
development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase
 'Development is
the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state
s have seen
fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r
ate were
maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro
und 1.7,
despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T
hailand,
Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite
 low
prosperity levels.
Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati
ons in birth rate. East
German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German
 unification compared to
West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because
of uncertainty. However
the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou
ght to be responsible
for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We
st German levels.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
    CAZ  C
anada.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>GOVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times
 </PUB>
<PAGE> International Page 3 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 50 ==============================================
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zfind Default:1,2,3,6,8,9,15,16,28
============= Transaction # 51 ==============================================
Transaction #:     51       Transaction Code:  14 (Search Results Displayed)
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============= Transaction # 52 ==============================================
Transaction #:     52       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-892</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DC1AGAB2FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93032
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi
gration has focused attention on soaring world population </HEADLINE>
<BYLIN
E>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Industrialised countries will be co
nfronted with an unprecedented influx of
would-be immigrants in the next few
 decades, putting their economies under
enormous pressure. That is the messa
ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik,
director of the United Nations Population F
und (UNFPA), to the UN conference
on European population this week in Geneva
.
More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North
America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and
Czechoslov
akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and
Romanians from the
 east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward
migration. This is
 quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik
warned.
Migration,
 many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the
factor spur
ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the
world's soaring p
opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's
Earth Summit in Ri
o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of
the natural environ
ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda.
The Vatican's resistanc
e to including population in the talks was
unsurprising, but the Philippines
 and some Middle Eastern countries with
high birth rates also proved obstruc
tive. Environmental pressure groups,
wary of telling developing countries ho
w to manage their affairs, were also
quiet.
Such reticence is difficult to u
nderstand in the light of UN population
projections - one puts the world's p
opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its
present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M
r Miroslav Macura, demographer with
the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r
eminded the conference that the
total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i
f fertility rates turned out to
differ even marginally from the model's assu
mptions.
Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing
countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American
countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two
de
cades.
India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi
ldren
per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third
in the
last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family
 size,
has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children
per
woman which maintains a static population.
But across much of sub-Sahara
n Africa, fertility rates have been running at
more than 6. Recent studies,
although based on less than perfect data,
suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti
ng only 1 percentage point off population
growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren
t famine, still has a fertility rate of
about 3.
According to Mr Fred Sai, p
resident of the International Planned Parenthood
Federation and chairman of
Ghana's population council, African countries now
recognise that family plan
ning is a tool for health improvement. But the
answers to restraining a high
 growth rate of population are not clear-cut.
Recent evidence shows that the
 traditional assumption that family size falls
with economic progress does n
ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Bulgaria and Kerala in India have
all shown sharp falls in family size
despite relatively low prosperity, whil
e the Gulf states have maintained
fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe
riod of sharply rising wealth.
'For every level of prosperity, you can find
an enormous range of fertility
rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni
versity. 'The things that
really bring down family size are more complex, to
 do with culture and
education'.
Contraceptive programmes do help though, th
e UNFPA, maintains: it called
last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5
bn spent worldwide on family
planning programmes to double by 2000.
But even
 if such measures are successful, the population of developing
countries wil
l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries.
Fertility rates i
n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per
woman - the UK rate
 is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below
West German levels of
 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the
Federal Population Inst
itute of Germany.
The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children
 in Europe and
North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c
urrently
outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t
he number
of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today,
and could
reach 310m in 2025.
The idea that any resulting labour gap could b
e filled by immigration is
disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p
er cent of the potential
workforce in western Europe is actually working, an
d there is plenty of
slack.'
Past immigration can adversely affect the host
country, he added. The
availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind
 Europe's relative lack
of investment in high-technology industries, he said
.
It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of
migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve
standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe
does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg
e
to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences.
 -----------
-------------------------------------
Immigration pressure on developed coun
tries
from growth in developing countries' population
 ---------------------
---------------------------
                     Pop in   Increase
(million)
              1991   by 2005
 ----------------------------------------------
--
Western Europe          379       4
Eastern Europe          124      11
E
x-Soviet Union         209      10
US                      253      81
Medit
erranean*          186     158
Latin America           451     289
Tropical
Africa         531     826
South Asia            1,206     920
 ------------
------------------------------------
Source: D Coleman, Oxford University
*s
outh-east Mediterranean
 ------------------------------------------------
</
TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Developed Countries.
</CN>
<XX>
Indust
ries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9721 International Affairs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>G
OVT  Government News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pa
ge 9 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 53 ==============================================
Transaction #:     53       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-36</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EI3DUAH3FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940930
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  30 SEP 94 / Survey of World Economy and Finance - Tr
ade and the World Economy (34): A host of future problems - Population / Bro
nwen Maddox analyses results of the Cairo conference </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>
 By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Alarm and hope: those are governments' t
win reactions to the latest batch of
projections from the United Nations on
how many people will be occupying the
planet in the next century. One messag
e behind the figures is that high
population growth in developing countries
remains a threat to their
prosperity, and through migration, to that of deve
loped countries as well.
But other messages are that growing populations nee
d not represent the
apocalypse which has been predicted by many, and that th
ere is much
governments can do to slow down the increase.
This month's UN co
nference on population and development in Cairo, the first
to tackle the con
tentious subject for a decade, stirred up controversy on
many fronts. The Va
tican formally registered its reservations to nearly half
the chapters in th
e final text, on the grounds that it condoned abortion as
a form of contrace
ption. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA), which organised the
conference, denie
d that the text had that interpretation, but several
Catholic countries in L
atin America also lodged reservations to sections.
However, despite an infor
mal alliance between the Vatican and Moslem
governments in the run-up to Cai
ro, governments achieved a much greater
degree of agreement at Cairo on resp
onses to the threat of population growth
than seemed possible at the previou
s UN conferences in 1984 or 1974. The
final document set a target for annual
 spending on family planning of
Dollars 17bn a year by 2000, from national p
rogrammes and international aid,
which marks a threefold increase on present
 levels.
Most governments acknowledged at Cairo that it is in their own inte
rest to
take steps to help people limit the sizes of their families, given t
he
formidable projections of the world's population. According to the UNFPA'
s
annual report, published in August, the total is set to reach a sobering
1
0bn by the middle of the next century, up from 5.7bn at present.
The UNFPA's
 projection assumes that the average number of children born to
each woman w
ill continue to fall, as it has done for several decades; other
assumptions,
 only slightly different, produce estimates of the total number
of people in
 2050 between 7.8bn and 12.5bn.
These increases will put increasing strains
on natural resources of all
kinds, both global resources, such as the atmosp
here and seas, and regional.
Water, in particular, may prove 'an increasing
cause of friction' between
countries and regions, the UNFPA suggests.
The im
plications of these projections for the distribution of wealth between
count
ries and continents are also considerable. The World Bank estimates, in
a re
port released ahead of Cairo, that 61 per cent of the world's population
wil
l live in countries with per capita incomes of below Dollars 350 a year
(in
1990 money values). That compares with 57 per cent in 1985. Over the
same pe
riod, the proportion of people living in countries with per capita
incomes o
ver Dollars 19,590 will fall from 16 per cent to 11 per cent.
Moreover, the
bank warns that by 2100, 10 out of 11 people will live in the
developing wor
ld, compared to four out of five at present, and two out of
three in 1950. M
uch of the increase will come in Africa: the present annual
growth in the co
ntinent's population of 2.9 per cent a year is the highest
in the world. Tha
t rate outstrips by some way the annual Asian and Latin
American growth of l
ess than 2 per cent, according to the UNFPA.
Within developing countries, pe
ople will drift to the cities in search of
jobs, prompted by competition for
 land and water in rural areas. The World
Bank estimates that in 2025, 57 pe
r cent of the population in developing
countries will live in cities, compar
ed to less than half now.
As a result of those pressures, developed countrie
s should prepare to face
growing pressures for immigration, the bank warns.
As their populations are
growing slowly, they should expect their share of t
he world's population to
shrink. While North America's population is edging
up at 1 per cent a year,
the rate is only 0.5 per cent a year in the former
Soviet Union and 0.3 per
cent a year in western Europe.
Meanwhile, their pop
ulations are ageing: the UNFPA expects the proportion of
people aged 65 and
over in industrialised countries to rise from the present
12.7 per cent to 1
8.4 per cent by 2025.
To set against those threats, UN figures provide some
ammunition to counter
fears of a global food shortage, of the kind voiced by
 the 'Club of Rome'
school of forecasters some 20 years ago. The UNFPA obser
ves that 'during the
past 10 years, the world's food production has increase
d by 24 per cent,
outpacing the rate of population growth'.
But the improvem
ent in food production has been unevenly distributed, the
UNFPA also points
out. In Africa, food production fell by 5 per cent while
population rose by
a third. While the UN maintains that food supplies
'should be sufficient to
meet all needs for the foreseeable future', the
poorer regions and countries
 will face severe shortages.
Reason to worry, then; but the past two decades
 also provide grounds for
hope that governments can help bring down populati
on growth rates. Most
developing countries - even, in the past few years, th
ose in sub-Saharan
Africa - have seen fertility rates fall.
According to UNF
PA officials, a decade ago many African countries saw
growing populations as
 a useful tool to increase prosperity. Now, seeing the
growth jeopardise the
 fruits of investment in health, education,
infrastructure and agriculture,
they are showing a greater readiness to
promote family planning.
The UNFPA s
ays that governments now appreciate that making contraception
more widely av
ailable helps bring down fertility rates, even if economic
development has b
een slow. Demographers' new message is that if people are
given the means to
 control the number of children they have, even in the
poorest countries the
y frequently choose to have fewer.
The past decade has shown governments the
 threat which uncurbed population
growth can pose to prosperity. But it has
also helped generate confidence
among governments that growth rates can be t
ackled, and broad agreement on
ways to do that.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</X
X>
<CN>EGZ  Egypt, Africa.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9431 Administr
ation of Public Health Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment
& Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page XX </PA
GE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 54 ==============================================
Transaction #:     54       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-12411</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EA4DIAAPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
131
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2
): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections </HEADLINE
>
<BYLINE>    By BRONWEN MADDOX </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
According to United Nations
 forecasts, the population of the world is likely
to double - to more than 1
0bn people - by the middle of the next century.
This will be one of the bigg
est forces shaping living standards of future
generations. Although growth w
ill take place almost entirely in developing
countries, few countries will b
e able to insulate themselves from the
effects.
However, population growth w
as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in
1992, although it is the source
of increasing pressure on natural resources
and the environment in many regi
ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity
of the issue was so great - provo
king debates about differing cultural and
religious values - that it would f
rustrate attempts to reach agreement on
other fronts.
Even at the time of th
e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as
Prince Charles pointed
 out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although
countries put their name
s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and
bio-diversity (the variety of
the world's wildlife), many have found
difficulty in drawing up realistic pl
ans for curbing environmental damage.
The omission has also allowed the noti
on of 'sustainable development' to
remain confused. That principle, which go
vernments attending Rio pledged to
observe, does not define whether resource
s are to be preserved at a certain
level for each person or simply for each
country. Countries with rapidly
growing populations will find it almost impo
ssible to preserve resources -
however defined - on a per capita basis.
But
although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably
larg
e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago.
Prominent among
1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of
industrialists,
 scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food,
energy and raw m
aterials would run out. Since then, food production has
increased while popu
lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many
countries now looks li
ke one of the development successes of the past two
decades. Many Asian and
Latin American countries have had particular success
in bringing down the ra
te of population growth.
India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the
average number of
children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of
about four. That
figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de
cades - although
still higher than the figure of just over two children per
woman which would
maintain a static population.
However, across much of sub-
Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been
running at more than six children
per woman. Demographers studying why some
countries have had more success th
an others point out that there is no
straightforward formula to apply. Longs
tanding assumptions that as a country
develops, its birth rate falls, fail t
o explain some of the patterns now
observed.
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a
nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls
in family size despite relativ
ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have
maintained fertility rates of
 more than three children per woman during a
period of fast economic growth.
 Instead, demographers are having to put
together a more complex picture, in
 which access to contraception, the level
of female education and the availa
bility of jobs for women all play a part.
There has also been international
concern about the measures sometimes
employed to restrain birth rates, parti
cularly in China, which has fiercely
applied limits on family size. The scal
e of China's problem is undeniable:
China now has nearly a quarter of the wo
rld's population on about 7 per cent
of the world's arable land.
According t
o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to
about 1.9 f
rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as
western Europe
an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the
measures used by
the Chinese government - including limiting urban families
to one child - ha
ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is
infringing human rights
.
Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav
e
outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn
agai
nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right.
They p
oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put
severe
 pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment.
They
also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised
countries an
d the steady fall in the average age of the population in
developing countri
es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years
old currently outnu
mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North
America. But pensioners wi
ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North
America for the first time, t
he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has
said.
Mr David Coleman, a demo
grapher at Oxford University, says that
environmental degradation, pressure
on resources and the search for jobs
will cause industrialised countries to
be confronted with an unprecedented
influx of immigrants from poorer countri
es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of
UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures -
 even taking account only those
who have already been born. More than 2m imm
igrants are believed to have
entered both Europe and North America over the
past two years alone. So far,
Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken
the brunt of Russians, gypsies
and Romanians from the east, but political ch
aos in Russia could intensify
westward migration.
Governments and internatio
nal agencies for aid, development and the
environment may still be coy about
 addressing issues of curbing population
growth. But they will increasingly
find the subject unavoidable. Worries
about consumption of resources and deg
radation of the environment are
well-established. But migration may be the f
actor which finally makes
countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de
veloping - face these
questions.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>QOZ  Dev
eloped Countries.
    XMZ  Africa.
    INZ  India, Asia.
    CNZ  China, Asi
a.
    XOZ  Asia.
    XCZ  Latin America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>
P99   Nonclassifiable Establishments.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Com
ment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Survey YOU Pag
e 2 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 55 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 56 ==============================================
Transaction #:     56       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT943-808</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EI0DNAGMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>94092
7
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe
(3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im
plications of an ageing population </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By EVA KALUZYNSKA
 </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati
on is already aged
65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the
 rest of the world.
'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the
 century,' said Dr
David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia
lising in trends
affecting Europe.
There are relatively minor variations in
birth and death rates among the 17
countries in the European Economic Area (
EEA), but the picture is very
clear. Any company considering relocation will
 obviously factor in current
levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre
ece, Spain and the UK;
highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer
s must tune into
demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l
ong-term
personnel policy off the ground.
'Companies may be thinking of movi
ng now to a country where costs are low,
but they must plan now to keep them
 low,' said employee-benefits specialist
David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo
wndes.
The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro
stat,
in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na
tural
population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra
te
remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from
11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand.
Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU)
,
are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only
in
Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor
e
children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the
EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year.
Demographers are ringing alarm
bells about the need to adjust policies now,
both at company and government
level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said
Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro
stat's project on demography. 'In the
next five to 10 years it is going to h
ave the most acute problems in
adjusting to an ageing workforce.'
Italy and
Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious
in France
, which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be
mothers. The U
K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what
Cruijsen calls an abn
ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen
elsewhere in Europe.
The o
verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent,
rather t
han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the
existing pool
of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts
agree on the need
 for two significant shifts in policy and attitude:
postponing the age of re
tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour
force. 'Seniors will sta
y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it.
Many employees able to do
so have retired early over the past decade, and
many still expect to do so.
'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy
and Japan are already plannin
g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and
other countries will follow
suit, experts say.
'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne
ss,' said Coleman.
'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th
at a person is old
and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.'
The idea of
older people giving up their places in the workforce to
youngsters gathered
favour during the recession, though without any
significant effect in reduci
ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend,
rejuvenating their workforc
es in the belief that younger people adapted
better to new technologies.
But
 Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities:
'Empl
oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who
have
 specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult,
and fl
exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees
could be
 part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe
people wil
l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.'
Employers cas
ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make
better use of
women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent
of the labour
force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female
participation, at 46
.6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2)
and the UK(43.2). Ir
eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All
projections for modest gro
wth in the labour force at the turn of the century
come from increased level
s of female participation,' says Coleman.
Formosa thinks employers will come
 round to offering women with caring
responsibilities for children or older
people more flexible working
arrangements, as they realise the value of doin
g so. 'I believe employers
will make more of an effort to keep women, as the
re is more difficulty in
finding replacements.'
Coleman estimates that, if a
ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female
participation in the labour
 force, the recruits would more than make up for
any shortfall. 'There is a
hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will
be mobilised as married wome
n increasingly take up work or return to work.'
Europe's ageing workforce ca
n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher
retirement ages as the ratio
of taxpayers to recipients descends from the
current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc
entives to retire early will go, and the
prospect of lower incomes will obli
ge seniors to work on.
Employers are likely to become involved in improving
pension provisions,
partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s
chemes to which they
are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo
r later retirement.
Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w
hich pensions
systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir
ement will cut
the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments.
So
me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the
imbalance
 in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is
no quick
 fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal
migrants,
 other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he
says: 'It se
ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour,
especially since
future demand emphasises high skills.'
Importing cheap young labour would ex
acerbate one of Europe's biggest
problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg
ues that western Europe must deal
with the impending crisis through making t
he best use of its own resources.
It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem
ployment and invest in more
capital-intensive processes to improve productiv
ity. And it should mobilise
more of its potential working population by maki
ng it easier for women to
work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren
t retirement age. Canny
employers can start planning now.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Count
ries:-
</XX>
<CN>XGZ  Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Admini
stration of Social and Manpower Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT
 Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Pag
e II </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 57 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-4933</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECICYACPFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
09
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  09 MAR 94 / Can Europe Compete?: Balance of econom
ic power begins to shift - David Marsh sees opportunities in Europe's laggin
g performance </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAVID MARSH </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Europe
ans are no strangers to periods of lagging economic performance. The
fortune
s of ancient Egypt waxed and waned over 2,000 years, while most of
Europe wa
s a barbaric wilderness populated by goatherds.
The cycles of world history
have since accelerated and become
interconnected, to a degree barely conceiv
able even a generation ago. As it
tackles the problem of fading dynamism, Eu
rope must weather a phase of
unsettling political and economic transition.
'
Europe can be under no illusion that it faces very strong competition from
t
he US and Asia,' says Mr Ernst-Antoine Selliere, vice-president in charge
of
 economic affairs at the French Patronat employers' organisation. 'But,
prov
ided we loosen constraints on our competitiveness, this can be an
opportunit
y.'
The European nations that launched the manufacturing revolutions of the
18th
and 19th centuries ceded industrial leadership to the US after the firs
t
world war. Now, as a result of global upheavals in technology and
communic
ations, another shift in the balance of economic power may be
imminent - thi
s time, towards the rapidly expanding economies of the Pacific
Rim.
Using Wo
rld Bank data and its own assumptions about future growth, Union
Bank of Swi
tzerland (UBS) projects that, in the first decade of next
century, purchasin
g power income per head in Singapore and Korea will exceed
that of the US. I
ncomes in Singapore are already close to the west European
average.
Accordin
g to similarly derived projections by UK accountants Coopers and
Lybrand, th
e share of world GDP taken by Asian developing countries
(including both Chi
na and India) could rise to 28 per cent in 2010 from 18
per cent in 1990. We
stern Europe's share would fall to 17 per cent from 22
per cent, while the U
S's would fall to 18 per cent from 23 per cent.
This projection assumes annu
al growth in both western Europe and the US of
2.5 per cent, against 6 per c
ent in Asia. Even if the growth differential is
less, Europe will drop down
the economic rankings. But Europe's likely
decline needs to be put into pers
pective.
First, it is natural that less well-off countries move closer to we
althy
ones. Over the past 20 years, the gulf between many rich and poor coun
tries
has widened. Where gaps have narrowed, they normally remain large. Acc
ording
to World Bank figures (based on constant dollar exchange rates rather
 than
purchasing power parities), by 2000 the ratio between average GDP per
capita
in western Europe and east Asia will be an 18 to 1, compared with 48
to 1 in
1970.
Second, as living standards rise in less developed countries,
wealth should
flow back to Europe through increased trade and investment. Pr
ovided
European companies match international advances in management and
tec
hnology, Europe can maintain a strong competitive advantage in goods and
ser
vices the rest of the world wants. This requires that borders remain open
an
d protectionist pressure is resisted.
Professor Richard Portes, director of
the London-based Centre for Economic
Policy Research, believes a narrowing o
f the wealth gap between Europe and
the rest of the world need not be disast
rous. 'I'm very sceptical about the
views of the doomsayers.'
Differences in
 real wages between western Europe and other manufacturing
regions will narr
ow, he says, in the same way that US wages, relative to
those in Europe, hav
e fallen since the 1950s. This need not stop European
living standards risin
g.
According to UBS's projections, western Europe's growth rate will pick up
early in the 21st century, as the continent benefits from the 'catch up'
ph
enomenon, under which countries that lag adopt innovations from the
leaders.
A striking example of 'catch up' has been US success in the 1980s in
reacti
ng to the competitive threat from Japan by importing 'just-in-time'
Japanese
 production technology, says Mr Bill Gasser, UBS's senior
international econ
omist.
But, as it tries to adapt, Europe has one big disadvantage. The
fast-
increasing share of GDP taken by government spending in the past decade
 -a
rise well under way before the onset of the European recession in
1992-93 -
has imposed a growing burden on business.
Social spending is the biggest sin
gle portion of these outlays. The OECD
says social security transfers in the
 EU will account for 21.5 per cent of
GDP in 1994, up from 16.4 per cent in
1989 - double the percentage rise in
the last downturn in 1979-1982. In rela
tion to GDP, EU social transfers
exceed US and Japanese levels by 50 per cen
t and 78 per cent.
As a community of nation states, western Europe faces gre
ater difficulties
than the US did a decade ago in adopting common policies t
o recover
dynamism. But Europe's diversity is also a trump card. Different p
arts of
the continent can draw upon varying strengths and specialisations.
T
here is little disagreement on the diagnosis of Europe's core problems. The
task is to implement corrective measures:
Growth of public spending on welfa
re is placing intolerable strains on
budget deficits - one reason for high t
axes and interest rates. Beyond
simply cutting benefits, governments need a
new balance between public and
private sector social security provision.
The
 number of old people in Europe could outstrip resources to care for
them. I
maginative solutions will be required, returning the elderly to
family envir
onments and using technological advances to moderate medical
costs.
More fle
xible labour markets are needed, including improved possibilities
for part-t
ime work and less rigid wage-bargaining mechanisms. The collapse
in demand f
or unskilled labour creates the potential for an integrated tax
and welfare
system allowing low-paid workers to be paid partly by employers
and partly b
y tax credits.
Europe must overcome its technological lag. Companies at the
forefront of
scientific advance must improve links both to the markets they
serve and the
education establishments on which they draw. Europe needs a be
tter balance
between the costs and benefits of environmental regulation. Env
ironmental
rules have not yet been a significant spur to innovation or compe
titive
advantage. Plans for further integration, including widening (early n
ext
century) to central and eastern Europe, need to be based on liberal,
ope
n-market principles.
Governments know Europe can prosper only if companies t
hink globally. This
can lead to some sharp modifications. Pointing to the la
rge number of German
companies shifting production abroad to escape high dom
estic costs, Mr
Ludolf von Wartenberg, general manager of the Federation of
German Industry,
says companies are moving away from a 'Made in Germany' tow
ards a 'Designed
in Germany' concept. German industry will regain competitiv
eness, he says.
But he admits doubts on how German society will cope with th
e strain.
This type of corporate reaction can be painful, but the absence of
adjustment would have still more disturbing consequences. If European
enter
prises and employees can muster the flexibility to manage change and
the fla
ir to master it, salvation is assured.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>US
Z  United States of America.
    JPZ  Japan, Asia.
    QRZ  European Economi
c Community (EC).
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9311 Finance, Taxation,
 and Monetary Policy.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
    MKTS  Market shares.
    ECON  Gross domestic product.
    ECON  Econom
ic Indicators.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 14 <
/PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 58 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-6848</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EE0DLAHMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9405
27
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 MAY 94 / Survey of Relocation in the UK (3): Po
pulation grows grey / A look at how Britain compares with the rest of Europe
 </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PHILIP COGGAN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The UK population
 is growing. And, like that of much of western Europe, it
is also greying.
B
ut while the increase in the pensioner population may cause problems in the
middle of the 21st century, there is some good news in the shorter term.
The
 number of people of working age (defined as men aged 16-64, and women
aged
16-59) is still increasing, according to the Office of Population
Censuses a
nd Surveys. From around 35.5m in 1992, the working population is
expected to
 increase to around 37.4m by 2011, while the overall UK
population grows fro
m just under 58m to 61.25m over the same period.
The birth rate in the UK ha
s edged up in recent years after the lows of the
late 1970s and early 1980s;
 live births per 1,000 people were 13.5 in 1992,
compared with an average of
 12.9 in 1981-85.
Nevertheless, the fertility rate is still below the replac
ement level of
2.1. Children were 25 per cent of the population in 1971, but
 are expected
to be only 18 per cent in 2031.
It is only a low death rate, a
s life expectancy marches ever upwards, that
keeps the population growing. (
Immigration plays a small part. The UK had a
net inflow of 34,000 people in
1992.) The average male born in 1990 had a
life expectancy of 73 years, comp
ared with 67.9 years in 1961; female life
expectancy grew from 73.8 to 78.5
years over the same period.
The UK's population profile is not too bad in Eu
ropean terms. In terms of
maintaining a future workforce, the key is the num
ber of those aged 0-19 as
a proportion of those people of working age. Here
the champion is Ireland,
which has more than one child for every person of w
orking age, while the UK
ranks seventh out of 17 countries surveyed by the O
PCS in 1990-91.
Bottom of the league is Germany, which has only one child fo
r every three
people of working age.
The number of 16-year-olds joining the
UK workforce has been steadily
declining from a peak of 936,000 in 1981 and
may have reached a trough of
628,000 in 1993. It is now expected to rise gen
tly during the rest of the
century.
The UK does not rank quite so well on th
e greying factor. There were 39
people aged over 60 for every 100 of working
 age in 1990-91, the third
highest total of the European nations studied. (S
weden was the greyest with
43 people over 60 for every 100 of working age.)
According to the OPCS, there were 8.93m people of pensionable age in England
and Wales in 1981, 18 per cent of the total; by 1991, there were 9.45m, 18.
5
per cent of the total. And within the ranks of the pensioners, the number
of
people aged over 75 increased from 2.93m (5.9 per cent of the total
popul
ation) in 1981 to 3.62m (7.1 per cent) in 1991.
The growing numbers of the e
lderly will undoubtedly create social costs
(particularly in terms of health
 and pensions provision) which will probably
be reflected in higher taxes fo
r the working population.
However, greying is a European-wide problem. About
 a fifth of the European
Union's 320m citizens are aged over 60 (with 20m ag
ed over 74). By 2010, the
proportion of over-60s is projected to grow to 23
per cent and to 25 per
cent by 2040. The only countries expected to have a p
ensioner population of
less than 20 per cent in 2010 are Portugal and Irelan
d.
Steps may be taken to alleviate potential problems by increasing the
pens
ionable age. In the UK, the plan is for the retirement age for women to
be i
ncreased to 65, to match that of men. This change will be phased in
between
the years 2010 and 2020.
The effect, according to the OPCS, is that the numb
er of pensioners in the
UK will peak at 15.2m in 2038, compared with a total
 of 16.8m had the change
not occurred.
Within England, population rose in ev
ery region bar two between 1981 and
1991. The exceptions were the north and
the north-west, which experienced a
fall of 0.1 per cent per year. East Angl
ia and the south-west saw the
fastest growth rates, at 0.9 and 0.7 per cent
a year respectively.
In 1992, the English region with the highest proportion
 of people of working
age was the south-east with 61.2 per cent (64.1 per ce
nt in greater London
itself). The region with the lowest proportion was the
south-west, with 59.2
per cent.
In terms of the future, the region with the
highest proportion of those
under 16 is the north-west, with 21.2 per cent,
while the south-west is the
lowest with 19.2 per cent.
Looking at the rest o
f the UK, Northern Ireland has a higher proportion of
children than any Engl
ish region, at 25.7 per cent, while Scotland beats all
the English regions i
n terms of the proportion of people of working age, at
62 per cent.
OPCS pro
jections show that, in 2011, the south-east region will still have
the lowes
t proportion of pensioners and the highest proportion of those of
working ag
e in England; the south-west will still be at the opposite end of
the scale
on both counts. The south-east will also have moved to top the
scale in term
s of the proportion of children.
However, a study of migration flows shows t
hat people have been leaving the
south-east for the rest of England. In the
five years between 1988 and 1992,
the south-east experienced a net migration
 outflow to the rest of the UK of
206,000. In fact, all of that and more was
 a loss from greater London, which
had an outflow of 250,000.
The region whi
ch saw the biggest inflow was the south-west, which gained
119,000. The east
 midlands and East Anglia both gained, while the west
midlands and the north
-west were net losers.
Within the UK as a whole, there has been a small migr
ation from England to
the other three countries. And there has been a steady
 shift away from
cities towards more rural areas. Perhaps as the elderly ret
reat from the
towns to retire to 'rural bliss', this trend will continue.
 -
--------------------------------------------------------------------
                UK population (thousands)
 ---------------------------------
------------------------------------
Mid-year              UK     England
Wales   Scotland   N Ireland
figures
 --------------------------------------
-------------------------------
1961*               52,807    43,561   2,635
     5,184      1,427
1971*               55,928    46,412   2,740     5,236
      1,540
1976*               56,216    46,660   2,799     5,233      1,52
4
1981*               56,352    46,821   2,813     5,180      1,538
1986*
            56,850    47,342   2,820     5,121      1,567
1987*
  57,008    47,488   2,833     5,112      1,575
1988*               57,159
  47,633   2,854     5,094      1,578
1989*               57,352    47,809
 2,869     5,091      1,583
1990*               57,561    47,992   2,878
 5,102      1,589
1991*               57,801    48,208   2,891     5,107
  1,594
1992*               57,998    48,378   2,899     5,111      1,610
 o
f which, percentages
 0-4                  6.7      6.7      6.6       6.4
      8.0
 5-15                13.7     13.5     14.0      13.7       17.7
16-44               42.0     42.0     39.6      42.6       42.1
 45-64M/59F
         19.3     19.3     19.8      19.5       17.2
 65M/60F-74          11
.4     11.3     12.6      11.5        9.8
 75 and over          7.0      7.0
      7.4       6.4        5.2
 --------------------------------------------
-------------------------
Projections (based on mid-1992 population estimate
s)
1996                58,784    49,067   2,930     5,146      1,642
2001
             59,800    50,023   2,966     5,143      1,667
2006
   60,610    50,814   2,993     5,115      1,687
2111                61,257
   51,458   3,013     5,077      1,709
 of which, percentages
 0-4
        5.7      5.8      5.6       5.5        6.7
 5-15                13.5
     13.5     12.9      13.6       15.3
 16-44               37.4     37.5
   35.9      36.2       39.7
 45-64M/59F          23.6     23.6     23.2
  24.5       21.2
 65M/60F-74          12.0     11.9     13.4      12.4
  10.7
 75 and over          7.8      7.8      9.0       7.9        6.4
 ---
------------------------------------------------------------------
*=Estimat
es
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
So
urce: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys
 ---------------------------
------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<C
N>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9441 Administr
ation of Social and Manpower Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Co
mment & Analysis.
    STATS  Statistics.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page II </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 59 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 60 ==============================================
Transaction #:     60       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-35</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CI3CBAE1FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>920930
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  30 SEP 92 / Survey of Finland (2): Perhaps the worst
 is over - After a deep recession, there are signs that the economy is start
ing to recover </HEADLINE>
<TEXT>
THE Finnish economy is going through its d
eepest and longest recession for
over 60 years. In 1991 the country's real g
ross domestic product plummeted
by 6.5 per cent, the sharpest drop Finland h
as known this century in
peacetime. There will be a negative growth rate - o
f at least a further
minus 1.5 per cent - this year.
Production in manufactu
ring sank by as much as 10.7 per cent last year while
there was a 12.1 per c
ent decline in production in the construction sector.
Unemployment, only 3.5
 per cent in 1990, climbed to 7.6 per cent last year
and is now over 14 per
cent. This winter the number of jobless is expected
to peak at about 350,000
 or 15 per cent of the population.
Finland's current account deficit will to
tal FM18bn in the current year, 3.3
per cent of GDP. The collapse of the cou
ntry's trade with the former Soviet
Union has been particularly painful with
 a fall of no less than 65 per cent
last year alone. The textile sector suff
ered a 30 per cent contraction in
its exports as a result.
The squeeze on li
ving standards has been severe. With a rise of only 2.2 per
cent in real ear
nings in 1991 and an expected zero increase this year,
household real dispos
able income rose by 0.7 per cent last year and fell by
5.5 per cent in 1992.
During this year, Finland has started to pull itself painfully out of its
s
lump. 'Today we have rather a schizophrenic economy,' observes Dr Pentti
Var
tia, head of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etla). A
number
of key indicators suggests that the worst could be over:
Last November's 12.
3 per cent devaluation of the markka has helped the
competitiveness of Finla
nd's main export industries - pulp and paper and
engineering. The volume of
exports is likely to rise this year by 18 per
cent. Although Finland's overs
eas markets - Sweden and Britain - have been
sluggish, both Germany and Fran
ce have provided good export opportunities.
Over the first six months of thi
s year the country's metal and engineering
sector enjoyed a rise of more tha
n 20 per cent in its export earnings to
FM25bn. The recovery has been partic
ularly noticeable in the
electro-technical and electronic sector as well as
transport equipment while
the export of steel and metals also improved.
The
picture has been less satisfactory in mechanical engineering. Fimet,
Finland
's engineering federation, believes the demand abroad for goods from
the cou
ntry's metal and engineering sector will strengthen during 1993. This
may co
mpensate to a certain extent for the decline in the domestic market
which lo
oks like continuing into next year.
Finland is likely to improve its labour
productivity this year by 5.5 per
cent and by a further 4 per cent in 1993,
according to Ministry of Finance
forecasts. There is expected to be an actua
l 0.5 per cent decline in real
earnings next year with an 8 per cent fall in
 labour costs in manufacturing
measured by unit of output this year, with a
further decline of 1.5 per cent
in 1993.
Inflation is going to be at histori
cally low levels with a rise in next
year's consumer price index of 2.5 per
cent, half of which will be caused by
increases in indirect taxes and public
 charges. The price competitiveness of
Finland looks impressive for once.
Bu
t there is also a darker side to Finland's present economic outlook.
Investm
ent prospects remain bleak, according to the forecasts which suggest
it may
be 1994 before any upturn can be expected. As Etla says in its latest
report
: 'The commencement of investment activity is being hampered by the
low capa
city utilisation rate, high indebtedness and financing difficulties.
The inv
estment ratio will remain exceptionally low for several years and the
capita
l stock will be reduced.'
The biggest single economic headache for the Finni
sh government is the rapid
escalation of its own debt. At the end of 1991 it
 amounted to 18.3 per cent
of the country's gross domestic product. With loc
al authority spending, the
debt amounted to 23 per cent of GDP, at FM117bn.
This year it is expected to
have risen to FM160bn.
The projections for the n
ext few years suggest that without a much tighter
government fiscal policy t
he budget deficit and the funding of it will
swallow up most of Finland's GD
P by the middle of the decade.
Why has the government's debt risen so fast?
Part of the trouble stems from
the decline in tax revenues as the recession
has deepened. But Mr Aho, the
prime minister, also blames the cost of financ
ing rising unemployment and
the banks' problems that have already forced the
 government to put aside
about FM28bn to assist those in trouble.
There is l
ittle doubt that the public sector grew too fast in the carefree
1980s. By N
ordic standards, Finland has a relatively small public sector.
This year it
accounts for 48 per cent of total output but the trend of
public consumption
 since 1970 has been ever upwards. Taxes have risen as a
proportion of GDP f
rom 31.1 per cent in 1970 to 37.1 per cent today.
'Ordinary people understan
d we cannot go on the way we were doing,' says Mr
Iivo Viinanen, the country
's finance minister.
Mr Jaakko Iloniemi, head of the Centre for Finnish Busi
ness and Policy
(Eva), agrees. 'There is a much greater national awareness o
f the need for
radical adjustments,' he says. 'It is up to us to clear up ou
r own mess.'
Most policy-makers accept the country's public sector must be r
educed but
the troubles centre over the precise detail on what has to be cut
. The
government is working on a medium-term strategy to reduce its spending
programmes up to 1995. Next year the cuts already agreed by ministers amoun
t
to FM18bn, 10 per cent less than in 1992 with further cuts proposed of
FM2
0bn-30bn for 1994 and 1995.
Mr Viinanen warns that this will mean slicing aw
ay at the state's large cash
support for agriculture as well as a contractio
n in the value of many social
benefits and financial support for local autho
rities. 'It is going to be
hard to do this but anybody else would have to do
 the same,' he adds.
'The chickens are coming home to roost,' declares Mr Ja
rl Kohler, head of
the forestry employers' association. 'There is now a good
 rapport between
government and industry. We are talking constructively toge
ther now.
Everybody accepts the reality.'
Although the pulp and paper sector
 benefited competitively from last
November's devaluation, Mr Kohler has no
enthusiasm at all for the floating
markka. The weak dollar has hit the indus
try, as 20 per cent of its business
is invoiced in that currency. Forestry's
 foreign debts total an estimated
FM30bn. At present, Finnish paper mills op
erate at only 81 per cent of
capacity. Mr Kohler warns: 'We will only invest
 in new capacity when there
is a market for the product and it is profitable
.'
Despite the turbulence of the markets and continuing anxieties over the
f
inancial sector, the Finnish economy should ease gradually upwards next
year
. Total output, according to government estimates, should improve by 3
per c
ent in 1993 with a continuing strong export performance. The current
account
 deficit looks set to fall to around FM10.5bn next year, or 2 per
cent of GD
P. There is also expected to be a modest recovery in investment in
machinery
 and equipment of around 2.5 per cent.
Industrial production looks set to gr
ow by 5.5 per cent next year with a
particularly sharp improvement in minera
ls of 12.5 per cent and a 6.5 per
cent increase in manufacturing. Inflation
is set to rise slightly to 4 per
cent through a further 10 per cent deprecia
tion of the markka when it is
eventually pegged again to the European Curren
cy Unit.
But Finnish average living standards will stagnate at best, if not
decline
further as unemployment stays high and domestic demand is squeezed.
Wage
'flexibility' is expected to cut most real incomes despite a rise in la
bour
costs of around 4 to 5 per cent in engineering and forestry.
After the
spread of financial chaos across the European money markets last
month, Finn
ish policy-makers feel less harassed and apologetic about their
decision to
float the markka. They believe the European Commission in
particular recogni
ses they faced no alternative but to take such unorthodox
action.
However, F
inland's economy remains more sensitive than most to the vagaries
of the out
side world. The size of the proposed government cuts package may
go some way
 to calm the markets. But Mr Viinanen and his cabinet colleagues
will need t
o show greater determination if they hope to convince the foreign
exchange d
ealers that Finland is serious about coming to terms with more
straitened ti
mes.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page II </PAGE>
<
/DOC>
============= Transaction # 61 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-15170</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DANCOADAFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
114
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 JAN 93 / Economic Viewpoint: Give to me your s
urplus workers </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By SAMUEL BRITTAN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Pr
esident-elect Bill Clinton owes his triumph not merely to the delayed
recove
ry from the US recession but also to a widespread belief that the
American d
ream is failing, and that the latest generation will not enjoy the
same oppo
rtunities as its parents and grandparents had.
My inclination had been to sh
rug off most of this talk as a reflection of
the jaundiced attitude towards
capitalism of the chattering classes on both
sides of the Atlantic. Closer i
nvestigation has impelled me to believe that
there is something in the compl
aints; but that there is little Clinton can
do to remedy matters. Indeed, th
e changes are an aspect of the reduction of
income differences between Ameri
can citizens and their geographical
neighbours, which progressive politician
s ought to welcome but seldom do.
A standard analysis of the labour market d
ata appears in an article by F
Levy and R J Murnane in the September 1992 is
sue of the Journal of Economic
Literature (JEL). The authors' starting point
 is that real income per
full-time employee was rising by 2.45 per cent per
annum between 1947 and
1975, but by only 0.67 per cent in the 1973-88 period
.
The real median income of a 45-54-year-old man (this means that he is in t
he
middle of the income distribution) rose by more than 20 per cent in the
d
ecade to 1958, nearly 41 per cent in the decade to 1968, and by only 1 or 2
per cent in the decade to 1988.
The near standstill in hourly pay is clearly
 associated with the
much-discussed productivity slowdown. President George
Bush's outgoing
Council of Economic Advisers has suggested that a change of
gear has taken
place, from an underlying 3 per cent annual growth in busines
s sector output
per hour up to the early 1970s to 0.9 per cent since then.
T
he squeeze on hourly pay has not been reflected nearly as much in
disposable
 income and spending. Higher participation rates have helped
family income.
There has also been an increase in the share of property or
non-wage receipt
s such as property returns or social security payments.
According to the ort
hodox tabulations, not only did pay grow more slowly in
recent years; but th
ere was among male, although not female, workers a
pro-cess known as polaris
ation or 'hollowing out'. The proportion increased
of relatively highly paid
 men earning more than Dollars 40,000 in dollars of
constant 1988 value. But
 so did the proportion at the bottom end, earning
less than Dollars 20,000.
It was the numbers in between that fell.
The near standstill in earnings dat
es back to 1973. But I wonder if a study
based on families and lifetime earn
ings, rather than snapshots of pay per
worker at any one time, would have co
me to such dismal findings.
Nevertheless, the slogan is that the US has been
 producing fewer
middle-class jobs, in the American popular sense of jobs af
fording a single
family house, car and associated expenditures. In Europe th
e reference would
be to upper-working or lower-middle class jobs - C1s or C2
s in media
classification.
Toleration of 'polarisation' or other disparities
 depends on the prevailing
general trend. As the JEL authors point out, when
 polarisation of earnings
increases around a rapidly rising average, then th
e poor get richer and rich
get richer faster. When it grows around a stagnan
t mean, the rich get richer
and the poor get poorer; and an outcry is to be
expected.
One explanation of polarisation is the shift away from manufacturi
ng, where
the better-paid middle-class jobs had been found. Another factor h
as been
the increased premium on educational qualifications.
There has also
been a growing differential in favour of middle-aged workers
against younger
 ones, probably reflecting the disadvantages of newcomers in
manufacturing,
where there have been few new vacancies. Quite apart from
these identifiable
 differences, there have been growing gaps in wages paid
by different compan
ies for workers with the same qualifications, which
researchers have been un
able to explain.
The academic studies might have yielded more insights if th
eir authors had
looked beyond the US frontier. For we are really seeing a ne
w chapter in a
story made familiar ever since western economic growth began
to slow down
after the 1973 oil price explosion. The US has taken the pressu
re in the
form of stagnant earnings and increased pay disparities. Europe ha
s taken it
in the form of inadequate employment opportunities.
In 1973, the
total number of jobs was very similar in the US to what it was
in a group of
 central and western European countries selected by the OECD.
Between then a
nd 1989 (thus excluding the recent recession years),
employment in these Eur
opean countries has risen by a bare 5m, while in the
US it has risen by 32m.
Even in the 1970s the growth of population of working age could only explai
n
half the difference in job growth between the two sides of the Atlantic. I
n
the 1980s, the demographic disparity explained almost none of the
differen
ce, which represents American superiority in finding jobs for a
greater prop
ortion of its labour force.
In fact, US job growth might have been much grea
ter than the official
figures suggest because of the unrecorded influx of wo
rkers from Mexico and
elsewhere. If there is a large increase in unskilled a
nd semi-skilled
labour, relative to capital and other resources, one would e
xpect pay per
head to come under pressure in a flexible labour market, and a
verage labour
productivity to stagnate as well. These phenomena are a mark n
ot of failure,
but of successful absorption of many new workers.
Something l
ike this would have happened in Germany if centralised agreements
had not pr
evented wages from coming down to market clearing levels. One hope
behind th
e North American Free Trade Association is that imports of goods
will replac
e immigrant inflows into the US. Even if, against all the odds,
this were to
 happen, pay among skilled workers would still suffer from the
pressures of
competitive imports. Free trade normally provides an increase
in overall nat
ional income, but not necessarily for every section of the
population.
The U
S still produces much more per head than its main competitors,
including Jap
an, and even its labour market problems are a sign that the
Statue of Libert
y is, however grudgingly, beckoning workers and goods from
less-favoured are
as.
The orthodox diagnosis of the OECD is that the US needs to save more and
invest more, which soon comes back to the old slogan of reducing the budget
deficit. My own suspicion is that President Clinton would do more for his
c
ountry if he left the economy alone and concentrated on removing the laws
ag
ainst soft drugs, and thus acted against the main force for the
criminalisat
ion of US society.
 --------------------------------------------------------
--------------
          AVERAGE ANNUAL US GROWTH RATES (AT CONSTANT PRICES)
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 1959-69     69-79     79-89
Consumer expend
iture per capita       2.8        2.2       1.8
Disposable income per capita
          2.9        2.2       1.5
Savings ratio*                        6.5
        7.1       4.4
Employment to population ratio*      58.0       59.9
    63.0
Hourly compensation**                 0.4        0.3       0.5
Outp
ut per hour**                     2.4        1.3       0.8
 ----------------
------------------------------------------------------
Source: OECD, US Econ
omy 1992;
* end of period; **non-farm business sector
 ---------------------
-------------------------------------------------
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
<
/XX>
<CN>USZ  USA.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P96  Administration of
Economic Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>CMMT  Comment and Analysis.
    STATS  Statistics.
    ECON  Economic Indicators.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financi
al Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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============= Transaction # 65 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 66 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4414</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
 to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
 in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
 GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
 are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
 automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
 paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
 area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
 likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
 the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page III </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOCNO>FT922-4414</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
 to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
 in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
 GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
 are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
 automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
 paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
 area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
 likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
 the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page III </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 68 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT933-4691</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DIHB8ABGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9309
08
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  08 SEP 93 / World Trade News: ABB robots deal with
 GM Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ABB Rob
otics, part of Asea Brown Boveri, has won a 'breakthrough' order
worth nearl
y Dollars 20m to supply more than 200 industrial robots to
General Motors Eu
rope.
The deal is ABB Robotics' first European order from GM, which has prev
iously
bought most of its robots from its former joint venture company, GMFa
nuc
Robotics.
Last year, however, GM sold its 50 per cent stake in GMFanuc t
o its partner,
Fanuc of Japan, as part of its strategy to concentrate on its
 core business
of vehicle production.
The robots are part of substantial inv
estments by GM at its plants in
Belgium, Germany, Sweden and the UK. At leas
t 120 of the robots ABB is
supplying will go to the Vauxhall Motors plant in
 Luton.
Most of the robots will be delivered next year, and will be mainly u
sed for
spot welding. ABB Robotics said the performance and cost efficiency
of its
product line were key factors in winning the order against fierce Jap
anese
competition.
ABB Robotics' and the renamed Fanuc Robotics are the two
biggest suppliers
of robots to European industry. Over the past decade, the
automotive
industry has been the largest customer for industrial robots. It
remains
important to the robot industry even if growth opportunities are hig
her in
less robotised industrial sectors such as the food industry.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>ABB Robotics.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>BE
Z  Belgium, EC.
    DEZ  Germany, EC.
    SEZ  Sweden, West Europe.
    GBZ
 United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3569 General Industr
ial Machinery, NEC.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>MKTS  Contracts.
</TP>
<PUB
>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 7 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT944-18195</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EJED5AA3FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>941
005
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 OCT 94 / Industrial robots 'set to soar by one
 third': Potential for expansion enormous, says report </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>
   By FRANCES WILLIAMS </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    GENEVA </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
The
 world's industrial robot population is forecast to soar by more than a
thir
d over the four years to 1997, according to a report published by the
United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the International
Federation of
Robotics yesterday.*
The report, the first in an annual series, says sagging
 growth in robot
investment bottomed out in 1993 and numbers are set to jump
 from 610,000 at
the end of last year to more than 830,000 by the end of 199
7. Annual sales
are predicted to rise from about 54,000 units in 1993 to mor
e than 103,000
units in 1997.
Japan accounts for more than half the world's
robot stock, equivalent to 325
robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers
. It is followed by Singapore
(109), Sweden (73), Italy (70) and Germany (62
).
Use of robots is most widespread in the motor vehicle industry, which
acc
ounts for between a third and more than one-half of robots in use in
countri
es such as France, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan and
Britain.
Tho
ugh Japan now has the highest number of robots in the electrical and
electro
nic industry, it remains the world leader by far in the use of robots
for ve
hicle manufacture.
In the transport equipment sector, which includes motor v
ehicles, Japan has
1,000 robots for every 10,000 workers, compared with 167
in Sweden, 110 in
France and 63 in Britain.
In most countries, especially th
ose with big motor vehicle industries,
robots are used most frequently for w
elding.
But in some countries machining is the most common application. In J
apan 40
per cent of the robot stock is used for assembly, reflecting the lar
ge-scale
use of robots in the electronic sector.
The potential for expansion
 of robotics is enormous. Numbers would explode
if other industrialised coun
tries were to reach Japan's robot densities and
if industry in general were
to reach only half the robot density of the
motor vehicle sector.
If all ind
ustries in France and Britain had half as many robots as the motor
industry
in these countries, the robot stock would more than double. If it
reached ha
lf the density of the Japanese motor vehicle industry, it would
increase mor
e than 20-fold.
*World Industrial Robots 1994: Statistics 1983-93 and foreca
sts to 1997.
Sales No. GV. E94.0.24, UN Sales section, Palais des Nations, C
H-1211 Geneva
10, Dollars 120.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>CHZ  Switz
erland, West Europe.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3569 General Industr
ial Machinery, NEC.
    P3548 Welding Apparatus.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<T
P>MKTS  Market shares.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financia
l Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 4 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 70 ==============================================
Transaction #:     70       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures -
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.
A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 71 ==============================================
Transaction #:     71       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures -
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.
A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 72 ==============================================
Transaction #:     72       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-4774</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIEASADWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The drive for competitiveness
 and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
 the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
 Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
 sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
 were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
 needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
 great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
 produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
 change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
 sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
 and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
 is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
 workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
 new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
 its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
</T
EXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 73 ==============================================
Transaction #:     73       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-4774</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIEASADWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The drive for competitiveness
 and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
 the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
 Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
 sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
 were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
 needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
 great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
 produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
 change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
 sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
 and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
 is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
 workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
 new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
 its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
</T
EXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 74 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-9444</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEGBFAFXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
 a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
 robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
 cent in electronics
 -the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
 Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
 -has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
 there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector  - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
 reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
 Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
 it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
 frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
 welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
 industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
 disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
 strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
 can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 75 ==============================================
Transaction #:     75       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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Associated Variable Length Text:
<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-9444</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEGBFAFXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
 a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
 robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
 cent in electronics
 -the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
 Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
 -has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
 there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector  - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
 reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
 Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
 it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
 frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
 welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
 industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
 disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
 strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
 can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 76 ==============================================
Transaction #:     76       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 77 ==============================================
Transaction #:     77       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 78 ==============================================
Transaction #:     78       Transaction Code:  14 (Search Results Displayed)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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============= Transaction # 79 ==============================================
Transaction #:     79       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-5669</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EFCDVAC3FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9406
03
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  03 JUN 94 / Technology: Robot lifts the load </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    BY MAX GLASKIN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A robot fork lift truck t
hat carries loads between lorry trailer and factory
floor could extend autom
ation to the loading bay. A prototype now being
tested maps its surroundings
 continuously and plots its routes.
'There is no system in the world that lo
ads and unloads conventional
trailers fully autonomously,' says Malcolm Robe
rts, director of Guidance
Control Systems of the UK. 'We built a system four
 years ago that relied on
mirrors in the trailers to reflect positioning las
ers but now we don't need
them.'
Drivers of trailers up to 16m long cannot p
ark them accurately enough for a
fixed robot loader to work. The GCS robot c
opes with such variables and also
detects changes in its surroundings - for
instance, when a pallet is in its
path. A central computer communicates the
tasks by radio to the robot, which
is otherwise autonomous.
The robot uses a
 variety of sensors to detect its own location and the
trailer. A laser syst
em scans ahead up to 25m; for local positioning,
ultrasound is accurate for
between 20cm and 2m. The ultrasound data is
interpreted quickly by an off-th
e-shelf transputer but an infra-red sensor
cuts in when data of a higher res
olution is needed - to cope with an
odd-shaped load, for example.
The robot
analyses when it has nudged up close to a load using a force
sensor and torq
ue measurement on each wheel. More sensors control the
sideways movement of
the forks so that loads are deposited hard up against
the trailer wall.
'A f
ork-lift truck driver can unload a trailer in half an hour with relative
eas
e and our prototype hasn't yet shown it can work so quickly. We expect to
be
 there later this year,' says Roberts.
However, time is not the only cost fa
ctor as robots are not so prone to
accidental damage to loads.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3537 Industrial Trucks and Tractors.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Londo
n Page 14 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 80 ==============================================
Transaction #:     80       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-5669</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EFCDVAC3FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9406
03
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  03 JUN 94 / Technology: Robot lifts the load </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    BY MAX GLASKIN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A robot fork lift truck t
hat carries loads between lorry trailer and factory
floor could extend autom
ation to the loading bay. A prototype now being
tested maps its surroundings
 continuously and plots its routes.
'There is no system in the world that lo
ads and unloads conventional
trailers fully autonomously,' says Malcolm Robe
rts, director of Guidance
Control Systems of the UK. 'We built a system four
 years ago that relied on
mirrors in the trailers to reflect positioning las
ers but now we don't need
them.'
Drivers of trailers up to 16m long cannot p
ark them accurately enough for a
fixed robot loader to work. The GCS robot c
opes with such variables and also
detects changes in its surroundings - for
instance, when a pallet is in its
path. A central computer communicates the
tasks by radio to the robot, which
is otherwise autonomous.
The robot uses a
 variety of sensors to detect its own location and the
trailer. A laser syst
em scans ahead up to 25m; for local positioning,
ultrasound is accurate for
between 20cm and 2m. The ultrasound data is
interpreted quickly by an off-th
e-shelf transputer but an infra-red sensor
cuts in when data of a higher res
olution is needed - to cope with an
odd-shaped load, for example.
The robot
analyses when it has nudged up close to a load using a force
sensor and torq
ue measurement on each wheel. More sensors control the
sideways movement of
the forks so that loads are deposited hard up against
the trailer wall.
'A f
ork-lift truck driver can unload a trailer in half an hour with relative
eas
e and our prototype hasn't yet shown it can work so quickly. We expect to
be
 there later this year,' says Roberts.
However, time is not the only cost fa
ctor as robots are not so prone to
accidental damage to loads.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3537 Industrial Trucks and Tractors.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Londo
n Page 14 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 81 ==============================================
Transaction #:     81       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-15546</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EANDNADMFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
114
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 JAN 94 / Technology (Worth Watching): Robots g
et their marching orders </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW FISHER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
Robots are on the march. In the US, Frost & Sullivan Market Intellige
nce
forecasts that the robot market will double from Dollars 592m (Pounds 40
0m)
in 1992 to Dollars 1.2bn by 1999. Pushing this expansion of nearly 11 pe
r
cent compound growth a year will be competitive pressures for greater
prod
uctivity and quality at lower cost.
Robots will be used increasingly to repl
ace workers in hazardous
environments, partly in reaction to soaring medical
 compensation costs, and
in complex automation systems. Until now, the US ha
s lagged behind Europe
and Japan (the world's largest buyer of robots) in th
is market. Frost &
Sullivan: US, 415 961 9000 UK, 71 730 3438.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>USZ  United States of America.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>MKTS  Market shares.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Londo
n Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 82 ==============================================
Transaction #:     82       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-11363</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CJ0BMAC4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>921
027
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches </HEADLIN
E>
<TEXT>
Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an
industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie,
63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company
wi
th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design.
Under
 his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of
Engin
eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused
worl
dwide interest.
*****
Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d
irector with Mecca
Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM
S in the UK in
succession to Richard Hargrave.
*****
Clive Ainsworth, former
ly commercial director of Frontline, has been
appointed md of Databit CCSL,
a SIEMENS company.
*****
Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq
uare D, has been
appointed divisional director of drives & standard products
 group of Siemens
in the UK.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE>
London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 83 ==============================================
Transaction #:     83       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-11363</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CJ0BMAC4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>921
027
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches </HEADLIN
E>
<TEXT>
Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an
industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie,
63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company
wi
th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design.
Under
 his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of
Engin
eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused
worl
dwide interest.
*****
Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d
irector with Mecca
Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM
S in the UK in
succession to Richard Hargrave.
*****
Clive Ainsworth, former
ly commercial director of Frontline, has been
appointed md of Databit CCSL,
a SIEMENS company.
*****
Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq
uare D, has been
appointed divisional director of drives & standard products
 group of Siemens
in the UK.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE>
London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 84 ==============================================
Transaction #:     84       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-13625</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EAYDAACEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>940
125
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 JAN 94 / Technology: Robots ration costs </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANNA KOCHAN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A new robot installation
for packing military rations is helping the French
army cut costs and could
even earn it some money. The FFr60m (Pounds 6.8m)
facility is automated and
can respond quickly to sharp increases in demand
at times of crisis.
This co
uld make it attractive to other armies and aid organisations, says
Colonel H
ugues Keller, head of the facility at Angers, south-west France.
With an out
put of 24 rations per minute, the plant easily satisfies the
army's regular
annual requirement for 2m rations and could produce two or
three times as mu
ch.
Developed as part of the army's cost-cutting programme, the facility
con
centrates the production of military rations on one site. Before, there
were
 two. Also, says Keller, 'we have seized the opportunity and installed
state
-of-the-art technology which will satisfy the needs not only of today's
army
 but also that of the next century'.
The robots fill cardboard cartons with
the 18 constituents of a soldier's
daily food allowance. The 14 possible men
us include tinned cooked meals,
chocolate bars, chewing gum, packet soup, wa
ter purification tablets, dry
crackers and paper tissues.
Each package must
be put in the right position in the box so it can be
closed, sealed and cove
red in plastic film, ready to be packed for shipment.
At the centre of the s
ystem is a line of nine small robots from Californian
manufacturer Adept, ea
ch responsible for loading two different components
into the cartons from a
conveyor.
The larger, more robust items such as the tins are put into the ra
tion
carton first. These are removed from their boxes and fed directly to th
e
Adept line, one layer at a time, by three large robots from ABB Robotique
France, part of the Swiss-Swedish group. The smaller items are then fed to
t
he Adept robots.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>FRZ  France, EC.
</CN>
<
XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P356
5 Packaging Machinery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product
 use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<P
AGE> London Page 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 85 ==============================================
Transaction #:     85       Transaction Code:  39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-769</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DF0AKAD0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93062
6
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait
ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th
e operating theatre </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CLIVE COOKSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT
>
YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai
n
tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the
procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's
most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be
more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical
r
evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over
t
he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses
in
struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be
possi
ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away,
using a c
ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality.
The most striking sign
 of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting
to welcome robotic assi
stants into their operating theatres. Within the past
few months, robots hav
e helped to carry out hip replacements in California,
prostate operations in
 London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later
this year, gall bladder
 removal, hernia repair and a variety of other
abdominal operations will be
added to the list of robotic accomplishments.
Despite this, even the most en
thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be
several years before they would c
onsider leaving a robot to operate on its
own.
The late Hap Paul, chief inve
ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We
have to move very slowly and ca
refully because one false move by a surgical
robot - and this whole technolo
gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the
world's largest and best-finan
ced project in medical robotics. Since
November, 10 patients at Sutter gener
al hospital in Sacramento have had hip
replacements with the aid of Robodoc,
 a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve
the cavity for an implant in the thi
gh bone.
Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical
 Systems,
the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from
IBM, is
forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug
Adm
inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in
th
ree US hospitals.
Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the
skilled hands of a
human specialist? The most important reason is that an el
ectronic arm is
capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b
est-trained
surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat
ients will
be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot
her
receiving conventional hip replacements.
Surgical robots promise more th
an improvements in existing procedures, says
Patrick Finlay, managing direct
or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK
medical robotics company based at B
eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced
collateral damage and greater precisio
n of the robot will make it possible
to do operations that would otherwise b
e too risky to contemplate. For
example, a tumour very close to the optic ne
rve can be tackled without
making the patient blind.'
Several different type
s of surgical robot are under development around the
world. Robodoc is an 'a
ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue.
'Orthopaedic work is an attrac
tive application because the robot is working
on hard tissue that doesn't mo
ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an
engineer specialising in medical
robotics at Imperial College, London.
Most operations, however, involve cutt
ing soft tissues - a task that is more
delicate than carving bone. So far, o
nly 'passive' robots have been used for
this type of surgery. They may move
instruments inside the patient, under
the surgeon's direction, but they do n
ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam.
An example is Laparobot, which Armstro
ng Projects is developing with Mark
Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic
. Laparobot will give someone
carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of
 'walking around' inside the
patient's body, using tele-presence techniques.
 A keyhole surgeon views the
operating site with a miniature video camera at
 the end of a thin optical
tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h
ole (typically, in the
tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope,
 projects the scene on
to a TV screen above the patient.
Normally, an assist
ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the
surgeon needs a differe
nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of
the surgeon's head and
moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a
foot button and moves h
is head to the left, the robot will change the view
inside the patient's bod
y. For this year's initial trials at the London
Clinic, Laparobot will work
with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage
will be for the surgeon to
wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the
impression of being immers
ed in the operating environment. As he looks
around, the scene will change a
s though he were actually inside the
abdominal cavity.
Further in the future
 lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger
movements to the control
of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot
will make the surgery more
efficient - less stressful for the surgeon,
faster and more accurate, and wi
th less risk of damage to the patient,' says
Ornstein.
Armstrong is also wor
king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National
Hospital for Neurolog
y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain
surgery. By the end
of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an
'image-guided robot' that wi
ll help the surgeon position his instruments at
the correct point in the bra
in to perform the operation. The next stage will
be for Neurobot itself to i
nsert the instruments.
A surgical robot is given as much prior information a
s possible about
relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o
r MRI scan. Its
computer converts this into a digital model of the patient.
Although the
surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o
n the
computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp
ected
events.
Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's
 head. If it
detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro
mpt the
surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak
ing the
new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until
the
surgeon has signalled his approval.
Finlay says a good indicator of prog
ress in surgical robotics will be the
increasing amount of freedom given to
the robot. 'Although the surgeon will
never cease to participate, it is real
istic to envisage a situation similar
to the relationship between an airline
r captain and his autopilot, in which
the human provides a supervisory and m
onitoring role and is available to
take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa
ys.
The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In
tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo
n
uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of
m
iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot,
althoug
h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in
case the
 system crashed.
Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe
ty. Yet, as
Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo
ts operating
on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor
k in metal
cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa
ctory
robots going out of control shows the need for such rules).
'There are
 two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable
to start ou
t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level
software system t
o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure.
But, in my view, t
hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the
robot from the bas
ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every
level.'
That means givin
g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with
duplicated softwar
e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond
pre-defined limits. A
nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising
surgeon's hand to hit the
stop button in time to avoid damage if all the
safety systems fail. Demonstr
ating safety is not enough, though. Growing
concerns about the financial cos
ts of medical care are forcing both public
health authorities and private ho
spitals to demand evidence that new
technology will deliver benefits that ou
tweigh its expense.
Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la
rge-scale clinical
trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica
l equipment have
been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen
t. A report on
medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv
isory Council
on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep
tion of
pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because
 it
'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.'
Peter Doyl
e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical
research committ
ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that
has been introdu
ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says
the National He
alth Service should require all new medical devices to be
assessed under con
trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured.
Miles Irving, pro
fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital,
says that such a
ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face
strong consumer p
ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been
properly evaluated
.'
Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc
.
'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this
as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have
to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a
publi
city stunt for them.'
Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U
niversity, US
experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its
elf as an
indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc
e to prove
its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and
more flashy
machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation.
 The
introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi
lar
competitive pressures in the UK.
ISS believes its clinical trial will en
able orthopaedic hospitals to justify
buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin
g 400 hip replacements a year, on the
basis that implants from robotic opera
tions last longer than those inserted
manually and so save money in the long
 run. But the recent history of
medical research and technology, from antibi
otics to diagnostic scanners,
shows that while each development can be justi
fied in isolation as being
cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs
tantially to the financial
burden of health care by creating new demand from
 patients and adding to the
number of elderly people in the population.
Two
decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a
purely ma
nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car
factory, s
urgical robots can only make the process more expensive.
Enthusiastic medica
l technologists can answer any question except one: how
will we pay for it?
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Armstrong Projects.
    Imperial Chemical
 Industries.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments.
    P38
42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies.
    P8099 Health and Allied Services, N
EC.
    P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Finan
cial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 86 ==============================================
Transaction #:     86       Transaction Code:  19 (Record Selected)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
                        Old Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface:   Prob          Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
  Rec. Format:  Short      Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:49
Selec. Rec. #:     18
Boolean Indexes Used:
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   0 Organization   0 LCCN       0 Topic      0 Host Item
   0 Series         0 ISSN       0 Keyword    0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
   Button 1: and   Button 2: OR    Button 3: or
      Used?: No       Used?: No       Used?: No
   # Keywords:      0   Error Code:      0
       # Hits:      0    Help Code:      0
  # Displayed:      0      Help ID:      0
Associated Variable Length Text:
<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-769</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DF0AKAD0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93062
6
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait
ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th
e operating theatre </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CLIVE COOKSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT
>
YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai
n
tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the
procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's
most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be
more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical
r
evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over
t
he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses
in
struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be
possi
ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away,
using a c
ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality.
The most striking sign
 of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting
to welcome robotic assi
stants into their operating theatres. Within the past
few months, robots hav
e helped to carry out hip replacements in California,
prostate operations in
 London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later
this year, gall bladder
 removal, hernia repair and a variety of other
abdominal operations will be
added to the list of robotic accomplishments.
Despite this, even the most en
thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be
several years before they would c
onsider leaving a robot to operate on its
own.
The late Hap Paul, chief inve
ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We
have to move very slowly and ca
refully because one false move by a surgical
robot - and this whole technolo
gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the
world's largest and best-finan
ced project in medical robotics. Since
November, 10 patients at Sutter gener
al hospital in Sacramento have had hip
replacements with the aid of Robodoc,
 a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve
the cavity for an implant in the thi
gh bone.
Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical
 Systems,
the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from
IBM, is
forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug
Adm
inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in
th
ree US hospitals.
Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the
skilled hands of a
human specialist? The most important reason is that an el
ectronic arm is
capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b
est-trained
surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat
ients will
be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot
her
receiving conventional hip replacements.
Surgical robots promise more th
an improvements in existing procedures, says
Patrick Finlay, managing direct
or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK
medical robotics company based at B
eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced
collateral damage and greater precisio
n of the robot will make it possible
to do operations that would otherwise b
e too risky to contemplate. For
example, a tumour very close to the optic ne
rve can be tackled without
making the patient blind.'
Several different type
s of surgical robot are under development around the
world. Robodoc is an 'a
ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue.
'Orthopaedic work is an attrac
tive application because the robot is working
on hard tissue that doesn't mo
ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an
engineer specialising in medical
robotics at Imperial College, London.
Most operations, however, involve cutt
ing soft tissues - a task that is more
delicate than carving bone. So far, o
nly 'passive' robots have been used for
this type of surgery. They may move
instruments inside the patient, under
the surgeon's direction, but they do n
ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam.
An example is Laparobot, which Armstro
ng Projects is developing with Mark
Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic
. Laparobot will give someone
carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of
 'walking around' inside the
patient's body, using tele-presence techniques.
 A keyhole surgeon views the
operating site with a miniature video camera at
 the end of a thin optical
tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h
ole (typically, in the
tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope,
 projects the scene on
to a TV screen above the patient.
Normally, an assist
ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the
surgeon needs a differe
nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of
the surgeon's head and
moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a
foot button and moves h
is head to the left, the robot will change the view
inside the patient's bod
y. For this year's initial trials at the London
Clinic, Laparobot will work
with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage
will be for the surgeon to
wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the
impression of being immers
ed in the operating environment. As he looks
around, the scene will change a
s though he were actually inside the
abdominal cavity.
Further in the future
 lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger
movements to the control
of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot
will make the surgery more
efficient - less stressful for the surgeon,
faster and more accurate, and wi
th less risk of damage to the patient,' says
Ornstein.
Armstrong is also wor
king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National
Hospital for Neurolog
y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain
surgery. By the end
of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an
'image-guided robot' that wi
ll help the surgeon position his instruments at
the correct point in the bra
in to perform the operation. The next stage will
be for Neurobot itself to i
nsert the instruments.
A surgical robot is given as much prior information a
s possible about
relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o
r MRI scan. Its
computer converts this into a digital model of the patient.
Although the
surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o
n the
computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp
ected
events.
Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's
 head. If it
detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro
mpt the
surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak
ing the
new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until
the
surgeon has signalled his approval.
Finlay says a good indicator of prog
ress in surgical robotics will be the
increasing amount of freedom given to
the robot. 'Although the surgeon will
never cease to participate, it is real
istic to envisage a situation similar
to the relationship between an airline
r captain and his autopilot, in which
the human provides a supervisory and m
onitoring role and is available to
take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa
ys.
The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In
tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo
n
uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of
m
iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot,
althoug
h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in
case the
 system crashed.
Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe
ty. Yet, as
Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo
ts operating
on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor
k in metal
cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa
ctory
robots going out of control shows the need for such rules).
'There are
 two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable
to start ou
t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level
software system t
o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure.
But, in my view, t
hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the
robot from the bas
ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every
level.'
That means givin
g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with
duplicated softwar
e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond
pre-defined limits. A
nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising
surgeon's hand to hit the
stop button in time to avoid damage if all the
safety systems fail. Demonstr
ating safety is not enough, though. Growing
concerns about the financial cos
ts of medical care are forcing both public
health authorities and private ho
spitals to demand evidence that new
technology will deliver benefits that ou
tweigh its expense.
Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la
rge-scale clinical
trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica
l equipment have
been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen
t. A report on
medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv
isory Council
on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep
tion of
pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because
 it
'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.'
Peter Doyl
e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical
research committ
ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that
has been introdu
ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says
the National He
alth Service should require all new medical devices to be
assessed under con
trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured.
Miles Irving, pro
fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital,
says that such a
ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face
strong consumer p
ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been
properly evaluated
.'
Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc
.
'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this
as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have
to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a
publi
city stunt for them.'
Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U
niversity, US
experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its
elf as an
indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc
e to prove
its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and
more flashy
machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation.
 The
introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi
lar
competitive pressures in the UK.
ISS believes its clinical trial will en
able orthopaedic hospitals to justify
buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin
g 400 hip replacements a year, on the
basis that implants from robotic opera
tions last longer than those inserted
manually and so save money in the long
 run. But the recent history of
medical research and technology, from antibi
otics to diagnostic scanners,
shows that while each development can be justi
fied in isolation as being
cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs
tantially to the financial
burden of health care by creating new demand from
 patients and adding to the
number of elderly people in the population.
Two
decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a
purely ma
nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car
factory, s
urgical robots can only make the process more expensive.
Enthusiastic medica
l technologists can answer any question except one: how
will we pay for it?
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Armstrong Projects.
    Imperial Chemical
 Industries.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments.
    P38
42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies.
    P8099 Health and Allied Services, N
EC.
    P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Finan
cial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 87 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-4414</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CFEA9AEEFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9206
05
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
 to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
 in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
 GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
 are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
 automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
 paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
 area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
 likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
 the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page III </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 88 ==============================================
Transaction #:     88       Transaction Code:  22 (Record(s) Saved)
  Terminal ID:  57943       Z39.50 Server ID:  19 (TREC)
   Session ID:      1   New Z39.50 Server ID:   0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT941-1242</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-ECYC5AHGFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9403
25
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review
(2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on
 motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the
high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By JOH
N DUNN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a
rmy to pack combat
rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men
us are needed each
month.
Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa
ck of biscuits and a tin
of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto
ve. In order to keep the
fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack
rations at the rate of 24
a minute.
The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr
ial robots, part of a FFr25m
automated packaging and palletising line built
for the army by ABB Robotics.
Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall
ets on to a conveyor which
delivers them to the ration packing station.
Here
 another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right
items, p
ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack
the rati
on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different
menus c
an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order.
David Marshall, responsi
ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton
Keynes, fervently hopes
that the food, drinks and confectionery industry -
including even army ratio
ns - will become the next big market for robots.
'The whole robot industry h
as depended on the automotive industry since day
one. Look at the figures -
80 per cent of the world market for robots is in
the automotive and automoti
ve supply industry. We are looking to the food
industry to perform as well a
s the automotive industry.'
The reason for his optimism is that industrial r
obots have become more
attractive to the food industry for packing and handl
ing, particularly in
the light of new health and safety regulations restrict
ing the weight of
loads that can be lifted manually.
They have become faster
, reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate
into a production line.
 Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for
example, to squeeze 25 p
er cent more performance out of the same robot.
Robots are also simpler to p
rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift
bigger loads. They can also
be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are
coming down to a level where
paybacks are acceptable to the food industry.
'The food, drink and confectio
nery industry is surviving on low-cost female
labour. Despite their flexibil
ity, using people to pack those army rations
would have been a nightmare,' s
ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking
to cut costs. Although robots ar
e flexible and reliable, so far they have
been too slow and too expensive, s
ays Marshall.
But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma
nufacturing
industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co
ventry, says
of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel
ding robot,
for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar
 model three
years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c
an now do one
spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w
ould have
taken three.
Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica
l performance of robots
 -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov
ershoot behaviour. And
some has come from better integration of the robot in
to the process, says
Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor
e it gets to the
weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo
ts has come on in
leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30
0kg. That was
unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson.
R
eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc
welding
 robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool
at the
 end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip
the we
lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors
prevent th
is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn
it free.
A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of
si
lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not
str
ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense
this
 and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead
off. It
 will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start
welding.
Overa
ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is
considerab
ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot
'package' which
includes some process engineering expertise and an
application software pack
age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes
them quicker to install and
 easier to operate.'
When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n
ew Astra line at the
Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t
hem on to six
companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software
package for
Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a
nd provide
an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t
he robots
in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money
. We only
had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu
ilder
would have had to develop their own.'
Yet despite the advances in robo
t technology, Britain has one of the
smallest robot populations of all the i
ndustrialised nations, around 7,600,
compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa
n's staggering 350,000.
Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in
 manufacturing industry
than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea
r paybacks demanded in
Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y
ears in Japan. 'It is
very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a
n 18 month payback.'
John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX
>
<IN>P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
    P3556 Food Products Machi
nery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  C
omment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page
IV </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 89 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT923-4774</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CIEASADWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9209
04
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
The drive for competitiveness
 and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
 the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
 Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
 sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
 were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
 needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
 great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
 produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
 change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
 sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
 and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
 is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
 workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
 new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
 its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
</T
EXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 15 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-9444</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEGBFAFXFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
07
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
 a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
 robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
 cent in electronics
 -the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
 Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
 -has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
 there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector  - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
 reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
 Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
 it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
 frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
 welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
 industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
 disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
 strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
 can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PU
B>
<PAGE> London Page 18 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-129</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC6FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
 Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
 -very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
 evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
 deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
 state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
 Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
 the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
 in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
 the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
 says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
 producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
 the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
</TEX
T>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
 (right): important consolidations (Omitted). </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 92 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT942-5669</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EFCDVAC3FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9406
03
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  03 JUN 94 / Technology: Robot lifts the load </HEA
DLINE>
<BYLINE>    BY MAX GLASKIN </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
A robot fork lift truck t
hat carries loads between lorry trailer and factory
floor could extend autom
ation to the loading bay. A prototype now being
tested maps its surroundings
 continuously and plots its routes.
'There is no system in the world that lo
ads and unloads conventional
trailers fully autonomously,' says Malcolm Robe
rts, director of Guidance
Control Systems of the UK. 'We built a system four
 years ago that relied on
mirrors in the trailers to reflect positioning las
ers but now we don't need
them.'
Drivers of trailers up to 16m long cannot p
ark them accurately enough for a
fixed robot loader to work. The GCS robot c
opes with such variables and also
detects changes in its surroundings - for
instance, when a pallet is in its
path. A central computer communicates the
tasks by radio to the robot, which
is otherwise autonomous.
The robot uses a
 variety of sensors to detect its own location and the
trailer. A laser syst
em scans ahead up to 25m; for local positioning,
ultrasound is accurate for
between 20cm and 2m. The ultrasound data is
interpreted quickly by an off-th
e-shelf transputer but an infra-red sensor
cuts in when data of a higher res
olution is needed - to cope with an
odd-shaped load, for example.
The robot
analyses when it has nudged up close to a load using a force
sensor and torq
ue measurement on each wheel. More sensors control the
sideways movement of
the forks so that loads are deposited hard up against
the trailer wall.
'A f
ork-lift truck driver can unload a trailer in half an hour with relative
eas
e and our prototype hasn't yet shown it can work so quickly. We expect to
be
 there later this year,' says Roberts.
However, time is not the only cost fa
ctor as robots are not so prone to
accidental damage to loads.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3537 Industrial Trucks and Tractors.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> Londo
n Page 14 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT924-11363</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CJ0BMAC4FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>921
027
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches </HEADLIN
E>
<TEXT>
Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an
industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie,
63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company
wi
th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design.
Under
 his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of
Engin
eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused
worl
dwide interest.
*****
Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d
irector with Mecca
Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM
S in the UK in
succession to Richard Hargrave.
*****
Clive Ainsworth, former
ly commercial director of Frontline, has been
appointed md of Databit CCSL,
a SIEMENS company.
*****
Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq
uare D, has been
appointed divisional director of drives & standard products
 group of Siemens
in the UK.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE>
London Page 20 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT932-769</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DF0AKAD0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>93062
6
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait
ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th
e operating theatre </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By CLIVE COOKSON </BYLINE>
<TEXT
>
YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai
n
tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the
procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's
most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be
more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical
r
evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over
t
he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses
in
struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be
possi
ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away,
using a c
ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality.
The most striking sign
 of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting
to welcome robotic assi
stants into their operating theatres. Within the past
few months, robots hav
e helped to carry out hip replacements in California,
prostate operations in
 London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later
this year, gall bladder
 removal, hernia repair and a variety of other
abdominal operations will be
added to the list of robotic accomplishments.
Despite this, even the most en
thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be
several years before they would c
onsider leaving a robot to operate on its
own.
The late Hap Paul, chief inve
ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We
have to move very slowly and ca
refully because one false move by a surgical
robot - and this whole technolo
gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the
world's largest and best-finan
ced project in medical robotics. Since
November, 10 patients at Sutter gener
al hospital in Sacramento have had hip
replacements with the aid of Robodoc,
 a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve
the cavity for an implant in the thi
gh bone.
Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical
 Systems,
the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from
IBM, is
forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug
Adm
inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in
th
ree US hospitals.
Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the
skilled hands of a
human specialist? The most important reason is that an el
ectronic arm is
capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b
est-trained
surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat
ients will
be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot
her
receiving conventional hip replacements.
Surgical robots promise more th
an improvements in existing procedures, says
Patrick Finlay, managing direct
or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK
medical robotics company based at B
eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced
collateral damage and greater precisio
n of the robot will make it possible
to do operations that would otherwise b
e too risky to contemplate. For
example, a tumour very close to the optic ne
rve can be tackled without
making the patient blind.'
Several different type
s of surgical robot are under development around the
world. Robodoc is an 'a
ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue.
'Orthopaedic work is an attrac
tive application because the robot is working
on hard tissue that doesn't mo
ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an
engineer specialising in medical
robotics at Imperial College, London.
Most operations, however, involve cutt
ing soft tissues - a task that is more
delicate than carving bone. So far, o
nly 'passive' robots have been used for
this type of surgery. They may move
instruments inside the patient, under
the surgeon's direction, but they do n
ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam.
An example is Laparobot, which Armstro
ng Projects is developing with Mark
Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic
. Laparobot will give someone
carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of
 'walking around' inside the
patient's body, using tele-presence techniques.
 A keyhole surgeon views the
operating site with a miniature video camera at
 the end of a thin optical
tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h
ole (typically, in the
tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope,
 projects the scene on
to a TV screen above the patient.
Normally, an assist
ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the
surgeon needs a differe
nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of
the surgeon's head and
moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a
foot button and moves h
is head to the left, the robot will change the view
inside the patient's bod
y. For this year's initial trials at the London
Clinic, Laparobot will work
with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage
will be for the surgeon to
wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the
impression of being immers
ed in the operating environment. As he looks
around, the scene will change a
s though he were actually inside the
abdominal cavity.
Further in the future
 lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger
movements to the control
of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot
will make the surgery more
efficient - less stressful for the surgeon,
faster and more accurate, and wi
th less risk of damage to the patient,' says
Ornstein.
Armstrong is also wor
king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National
Hospital for Neurolog
y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain
surgery. By the end
of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an
'image-guided robot' that wi
ll help the surgeon position his instruments at
the correct point in the bra
in to perform the operation. The next stage will
be for Neurobot itself to i
nsert the instruments.
A surgical robot is given as much prior information a
s possible about
relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o
r MRI scan. Its
computer converts this into a digital model of the patient.
Although the
surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o
n the
computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp
ected
events.
Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's
 head. If it
detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro
mpt the
surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak
ing the
new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until
the
surgeon has signalled his approval.
Finlay says a good indicator of prog
ress in surgical robotics will be the
increasing amount of freedom given to
the robot. 'Although the surgeon will
never cease to participate, it is real
istic to envisage a situation similar
to the relationship between an airline
r captain and his autopilot, in which
the human provides a supervisory and m
onitoring role and is available to
take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa
ys.
The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In
tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo
n
uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of
m
iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot,
althoug
h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in
case the
 system crashed.
Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe
ty. Yet, as
Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo
ts operating
on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor
k in metal
cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa
ctory
robots going out of control shows the need for such rules).
'There are
 two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable
to start ou
t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level
software system t
o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure.
But, in my view, t
hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the
robot from the bas
ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every
level.'
That means givin
g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with
duplicated softwar
e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond
pre-defined limits. A
nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising
surgeon's hand to hit the
stop button in time to avoid damage if all the
safety systems fail. Demonstr
ating safety is not enough, though. Growing
concerns about the financial cos
ts of medical care are forcing both public
health authorities and private ho
spitals to demand evidence that new
technology will deliver benefits that ou
tweigh its expense.
Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la
rge-scale clinical
trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica
l equipment have
been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen
t. A report on
medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv
isory Council
on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep
tion of
pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because
 it
'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.'
Peter Doyl
e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical
research committ
ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that
has been introdu
ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says
the National He
alth Service should require all new medical devices to be
assessed under con
trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured.
Miles Irving, pro
fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital,
says that such a
ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face
strong consumer p
ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been
properly evaluated
.'
Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc
.
'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this
as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have
to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a
publi
city stunt for them.'
Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U
niversity, US
experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its
elf as an
indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc
e to prove
its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and
more flashy
machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation.
 The
introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi
lar
competitive pressures in the UK.
ISS believes its clinical trial will en
able orthopaedic hospitals to justify
buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin
g 400 hip replacements a year, on the
basis that implants from robotic opera
tions last longer than those inserted
manually and so save money in the long
 run. But the recent history of
medical research and technology, from antibi
otics to diagnostic scanners,
shows that while each development can be justi
fied in isolation as being
cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs
tantially to the financial
burden of health care by creating new demand from
 patients and adding to the
number of elderly people in the population.
Two
decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a
purely ma
nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car
factory, s
urgical robots can only make the process more expensive.
Enthusiastic medica
l technologists can answer any question except one: how
will we pay for it?
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies:-
</XX>
<CO>Armstrong Projects.
    Imperial Chemical
 Industries.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments.
    P38
42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies.
    P8099 Health and Allied Services, N
EC.
    P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH
  Products & Product use.
    CMMT  Comment & Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Finan
cial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page I </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 95 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT911-135</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-BENBQAC0FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>91051
4
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6
): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p
roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce </HEAD
LINE>
<BYLINE>    By LORI VALIGRA </BYLINE>
<DATELINE>    TOKYO </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa
cturer
replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se
t up
full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from
g
etting lonely.
The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there
 are a few
showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer'
s factory
near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact
ories are
realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f
ocus their
research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t
he ever
increasing number of machines working by their side.
In past years m
anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving
machines to raise
production. They focused on maximising the use of people,
money, time and ma
terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the
complex machinery b
eginning to surround them.
'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin
es, so the man-machine
interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats
uyama, a manager at
Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo.
'Japan
ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production
has s
hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,'
he sa
ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery
to be
 more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example,
weldi
ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as
fuzzy l
ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as
finding an
operational failure, through inferences, as humans do.
The escalating skille
d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth
rate and a more afflue
nt and highly educated society, makes robots an
important component of facto
ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some
companies.
Strong competition i
n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of
investment in labour-
saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting
tools, processing mach
ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force
is expected to be 0.8
per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall
off by half to 0.4 per
 cent until 2000, according to Japanese government
statistics. During that t
ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual
economic growth rate.
'T
o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says
Mr
Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association
(Jir
a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the
switch
from a manufacturing to a service economy.
Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y
onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer
blue-collar workers in manufacturing b
y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a
shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo
ung people are a different breed of
worker from those who laboured long hour
s for little pay to build Japan's
industrial miracle.
They want to avoid so-
called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai'
(dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard)
. 'Older men were very patient and had the
Bushido (warrior) morale, but it
is hard to find these people today,' says
Mr Matsuyama.
Replacing them with
machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces
programmable controlle
rs and other electronics products, sees the
improvements that can be made in
 factory automation as almost limitless and
including diagnosing system fail
ures and other management tasks.
The improvements span a broad factory autom
ation market valued at almost
Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a
 product from design through
production and inspection. The important compon
ents of automating a factory
are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of
 the market, as well as
computer-aided design and manufacturing software and
 equipment, industrial
robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse
s, computers and
automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou
t a plant site.
Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod
uction
components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin
e
tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power
.
Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16
per cent held by Germany.
Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i
n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki,
for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste
r, in the UK which
produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a
ccording to
industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing
robot market
is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst
allations
worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5
 per cent.
Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni
cs and
other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn
ology,
product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese
manuf
acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is
litt
le competition from imports.
The electronics industry is the biggest user of
 automation technology. At
its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To
kyo, Toshiba uses its own
laptop computers for design, development and assem
bly of new Toshiba
laptops.
The laptops are used to compute how easily a new
 computer model can be
assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget
her one notebook-size
Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important,
because the company is
making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s
pan of each new product
is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition
.
'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is
al
ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga,
who
 heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome.
How
ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a
Jap
anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it
increasingly
difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba
replicates about 70
per cent of design work from current models in new ones.
While it took Toshi
ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops
from scratch, it took
only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook.
Though its factory is
about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the
company often comment about
the number of people still present on the
manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s
ays that with the fast-paced product life
cycles, humans are needed. 'There
are problems with automated systems. They
can't catch up with new technology
, so humans are acting as universal super
robots,' he adds.
Fuzzy logic may
help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic,
software that can
help make a decision from unclear information, will help
increase the versat
ility of robots in the future by affording better control
of their movements
. Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed
a test robot that
 can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd).
In a New Year's
address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president,
identified fuzzy
 logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994,
more than 20 pe
r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of
fuzzy logic. Accord
ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As
part of a computer-in
tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in
production and in mana
ging the company.
'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person
where computers
are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge
neration plant's
circulation control system to clean water and to make decis
ions. Perhaps the
Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide
d with these
systems,' he says.
Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots
 and other components, spell
another technological advantage for Japan in th
e future: being able to
change small-scale production quickly, so that multi
ple products can be
produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya
ma predicts Japanese
manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale
 production, which is
a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility.
Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense
that market information should be more effectively connected with the
produc
tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible
production
 without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in
Osaka.
The com
pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which
more c
losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they
are r
efined.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page IV </PAGE
>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 97 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-8032</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEOAZAA9FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 MAY 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Helping h
and at the dinner table </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<
TEXT>
Help is at hand for many thousands of disabled people who are unable t
o feed
themselves, writes Andrew Baxter.
Handy 1, designed by Mike Topping,
development manager at the University of
Keele's rehabilitation robotics pro
ject, enables severely disabled people to
eat unaided.
The product, a roboti
c arm with contoured spoon attached to an electronic
control unit on an adju
stable stand, allows users to eat at their own pace.
A stalk switch mounted
on a flexible gooseneck can be operated by hand or
head movements, giving th
e user control.
Earlier this month, Handy 1 won the Pounds 7,000 Institution
 of Electrical
Engineers Prize for Helping Disabled People. University of Ke
ele, Case Unit:
UK, 0782 712774.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PA
GE> London Page 14 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 98 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT922-8032</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CEOAZAA9FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9205
15
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  15 MAY 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Helping h
and at the dinner table </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<
TEXT>
Help is at hand for many thousands of disabled people who are unable t
o feed
themselves, writes Andrew Baxter.
Handy 1, designed by Mike Topping,
development manager at the University of
Keele's rehabilitation robotics pro
ject, enables severely disabled people to
eat unaided.
The product, a roboti
c arm with contoured spoon attached to an electronic
control unit on an adju
stable stand, allows users to eat at their own pace.
A stalk switch mounted
on a flexible gooseneck can be operated by hand or
head movements, giving th
e user control.
Earlier this month, Handy 1 won the Pounds 7,000 Institution
 of Electrical
Engineers Prize for Helping Disabled People. University of Ke
ele, Case Unit:
UK, 0782 712774.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PA
GE> London Page 14 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 99 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-8893</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBNB3AE8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9202
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 92 / Technology: Machine replaces milkmaid
</HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEVEN SONSINO </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
For the last thre
e years Professor Jim Hewit's team in the Department of
Mechanical Engineeri
ng at the Loughborough University of Technology has been
looking at cows' ud
ders with more than a passing interest.
Talking to colleagues at the Agricul
tural and Food Research Council they
discovered that if cows could be milked
 as often as the cows themselves
wanted, milk production would increase.
The
 stress on the cows of being rounded up for milking would also be
reduced, w
hich could improve milk quality. And farmers would need less
equipment, as m
ilking would be spread throughout the day, not compressed
into the tradition
al early and late shifts.
The Loughborough team has developed a robotic mach
ine to milk the cows
automatically. The system incorporates a thermal imagin
g system attached to
a contraption of booms and telescopic tubing.
The solut
ion appeared by accident. Hewit discovered a thermal imaging system
in the l
ab from a previous project. Wondering whether this might distinguish
cold te
ats from hot udders, the team tested it on cows on an Oxfordshire
farm.
Not
only did it pick out the teats on the cow when the animal entered the
milkin
g stall, without the need for human guidance, it also picked out a
teat dise
ased with mastitis, which appeared black to the imaging system. The
cow's ow
ner was shocked, but grateful, and so were the Loughborough
engineers: in a
surprise spin-off the robot had become a dual milking and
diagnostic imaging
 system.
Work will begin in May on the remaining hurdle: making the imaging
systems
rugged enough and cheap enough for life on the farm. At present an e
ffective
imaging system costs around Pounds 30,000, says Hewit, and he is wo
rried
that a roaring trade in robot rustling might develop.
Eventually he be
lieves unattended milking stalls will appear on the farm.
Cows will wander i
n as they please or be called in by the tape-recorded
lowings of suckling ca
lves.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 100 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-8893</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBNB3AE8FT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9202
14
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  14 FEB 92 / Technology: Machine replaces milkmaid
</HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By STEVEN SONSINO </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
For the last thre
e years Professor Jim Hewit's team in the Department of
Mechanical Engineeri
ng at the Loughborough University of Technology has been
looking at cows' ud
ders with more than a passing interest.
Talking to colleagues at the Agricul
tural and Food Research Council they
discovered that if cows could be milked
 as often as the cows themselves
wanted, milk production would increase.
The
 stress on the cows of being rounded up for milking would also be
reduced, w
hich could improve milk quality. And farmers would need less
equipment, as m
ilking would be spread throughout the day, not compressed
into the tradition
al early and late shifts.
The Loughborough team has developed a robotic mach
ine to milk the cows
automatically. The system incorporates a thermal imagin
g system attached to
a contraption of booms and telescopic tubing.
The solut
ion appeared by accident. Hewit discovered a thermal imaging system
in the l
ab from a previous project. Wondering whether this might distinguish
cold te
ats from hot udders, the team tested it on cows on an Oxfordshire
farm.
Not
only did it pick out the teats on the cow when the animal entered the
milkin
g stall, without the need for human guidance, it also picked out a
teat dise
ased with mastitis, which appeared black to the imaging system. The
cow's ow
ner was shocked, but grateful, and so were the Loughborough
engineers: in a
surprise spin-off the robot had become a dual milking and
diagnostic imaging
 system.
Work will begin in May on the remaining hurdle: making the imaging
systems
rugged enough and cheap enough for life on the farm. At present an e
ffective
imaging system costs around Pounds 30,000, says Hewit, and he is wo
rried
that a roaring trade in robot rustling might develop.
Eventually he be
lieves unattended milking stalls will appear on the farm.
Cows will wander i
n as they please or be called in by the tape-recorded
lowings of suckling ca
lves.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 10 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 101 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-3682</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CCMBUABBFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9203
13
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  13 MAR 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Robotic e
yes see the light </HEADLINE>
<TEXT>
'ROBOTIC eyes' can now be made from a p
hotosensitive protein called
bacteriorhodopsin (BR) found in salt-saturated
water such as the Dead Sea.
A team from Fuji Photo Film in Japan has develop
ed a retina-like light
sensor which rivals the most sophisticated silicon de
vices. It mimics some
of the functions of the eye in a simpler, less costly
and more compact
package.
The sensor is constructed by wedging a thin film o
f the protein between two
oxide electrodes in an electrically conductive gel
. When light hits the
sensor the BR molecules react by changing shape, gener
ating a quick electric
pulse that travels through the electrode. But if the
light remains constant
the protein returns to its original shape. No charge
is generated until the
light level changes again.
Potential applications inc
lude recognition systems for security purposes and
factory automation.
Fuji
Photo Film: Japan, 04 6573 7070.
</TEXT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PA
GE> London Page 12 </PAGE>
</DOC>
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-12541</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DA1B9AEAFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
128
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  28 JAN 93 / JCB intent on putting the skids under
 its rivals: The engineering group's hope for its new product </HEADLINE>
<B
YLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
IN AN industry which loves gossi
ping about rivals' product plans, it was an
open secret that JC Bamford Exca
vators (JCB), the largest UK-owned
earthmoving equipment maker, was about to
 enter a new product sector.
The company, whose initials are a generic name
for backhoe loaders - the big
yellow machines with a loader bucket at the fr
ont and a small excavator in
the rear - this week made its long-awaited entr
y into the fast-growing
European market for skid-steer loaders.
The launch o
f the innovatively-designed JCB Robot is an important step for
Staffordshire
-based JCB, one of the UK's most successful privately-held
engineering group
s.
It is also a rare piece of good news in an industry which has yet to see
any
hard evidence of the recession lifting in the UK, and may face worsening
conditions on the Continent.
JCB said recently it was producing constructio
n equipment at about one third
of the rate of four years ago, when the UK ma
rket was booming.
Skid-steer loaders are compact machines which can be used
for anything from
light civil engineering work to clearing out chicken coops
. Their
versatility, with the trend towards use of smaller machines, such as
mini-excavators, in jobs where picks and shovels would have been used until
recently, makes them relatively recession-proof.
According to Mr David Phil
lips of the London-based Corporate Intelligence
Group, sales in Europe have
surged from 3,600 units in 1985 to about 10,000
last year and could rise to
between 12,000 and 14,000 in five years.
JCB is known to have been looking a
t the skid-steer market for a decade.
Launching a new volume product in a re
latively fast-growing sector, says Mr
Phillips, is a much more realistic way
 for JCB to build sales than to
attempt a 5 per cent increase in backhoe loa
ders, where it is European
leader with a 40 per cent market share.
JCB has s
pent three years and Pounds 4m developing the Robot, which will
enter a mark
et dominated by the Melroe Bobcat, produced by Clark Equipment
of the US.
JC
B has set itself characteristically tough targets for the Robot. Mr John
Bra
dley, JCB's marketing director, says the company aims to become the
second-b
iggest supplier in the European skid-steer market in about three
years, givi
ng it about 10 per cent of the market.
That could involve taking market shar
e from Melroe, which has about 50 per
cent of the market, and smaller suppli
ers such as Gehl of Germany and FAI of
Italy. Mr Phillips says the entry of
another internationally-known company
alongside Melroe may expand the market
.
Additionally, JCB is pinning its hopes on winning customers by redrawing t
he
conventional skid-steer design. The Robot's single boom allows the operat
or
access through a side door, cutting out the risk of injury when clamberin
g
over or under the bucket to reach the driving seat.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies
:-
</XX>
<CO>JC Bamford Excavators.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  Un
ited Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P353  Construction and R
elated Machinery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products.
    CMMT  Com
ment and Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page
5 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 103 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT931-12541</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-DA1B9AEAFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>930
128
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  28 JAN 93 / JCB intent on putting the skids under
 its rivals: The engineering group's hope for its new product </HEADLINE>
<B
YLINE>    By ANDREW BAXTER </BYLINE>
<TEXT>
IN AN industry which loves gossi
ping about rivals' product plans, it was an
open secret that JC Bamford Exca
vators (JCB), the largest UK-owned
earthmoving equipment maker, was about to
 enter a new product sector.
The company, whose initials are a generic name
for backhoe loaders - the big
yellow machines with a loader bucket at the fr
ont and a small excavator in
the rear - this week made its long-awaited entr
y into the fast-growing
European market for skid-steer loaders.
The launch o
f the innovatively-designed JCB Robot is an important step for
Staffordshire
-based JCB, one of the UK's most successful privately-held
engineering group
s.
It is also a rare piece of good news in an industry which has yet to see
any
hard evidence of the recession lifting in the UK, and may face worsening
conditions on the Continent.
JCB said recently it was producing constructio
n equipment at about one third
of the rate of four years ago, when the UK ma
rket was booming.
Skid-steer loaders are compact machines which can be used
for anything from
light civil engineering work to clearing out chicken coops
. Their
versatility, with the trend towards use of smaller machines, such as
mini-excavators, in jobs where picks and shovels would have been used until
recently, makes them relatively recession-proof.
According to Mr David Phil
lips of the London-based Corporate Intelligence
Group, sales in Europe have
surged from 3,600 units in 1985 to about 10,000
last year and could rise to
between 12,000 and 14,000 in five years.
JCB is known to have been looking a
t the skid-steer market for a decade.
Launching a new volume product in a re
latively fast-growing sector, says Mr
Phillips, is a much more realistic way
 for JCB to build sales than to
attempt a 5 per cent increase in backhoe loa
ders, where it is European
leader with a 40 per cent market share.
JCB has s
pent three years and Pounds 4m developing the Robot, which will
enter a mark
et dominated by the Melroe Bobcat, produced by Clark Equipment
of the US.
JC
B has set itself characteristically tough targets for the Robot. Mr John
Bra
dley, JCB's marketing director, says the company aims to become the
second-b
iggest supplier in the European skid-steer market in about three
years, givi
ng it about 10 per cent of the market.
That could involve taking market shar
e from Melroe, which has about 50 per
cent of the market, and smaller suppli
ers such as Gehl of Germany and FAI of
Italy. Mr Phillips says the entry of
another internationally-known company
alongside Melroe may expand the market
.
Additionally, JCB is pinning its hopes on winning customers by redrawing t
he
conventional skid-steer design. The Robot's single boom allows the operat
or
access through a side door, cutting out the risk of injury when clamberin
g
over or under the bucket to reach the driving seat.
</TEXT>
<XX>
Companies
:-
</XX>
<CO>JC Bamford Excavators.
</CO>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  Un
ited Kingdom, EC.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P353  Construction and R
elated Machinery.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>TECH  Products.
    CMMT  Com
ment and Analysis.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page
5 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 104 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 105 ==============================================
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zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar exports})"
============= Transaction # 106 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 107 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-9644</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBKBQACWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9202
11
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
 sugar crop forecast </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAMIAN FRASER </BYLINE>
<DAT
ELINE>    MEXICO CITY </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
 to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
 statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
 by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
 this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
 exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
 and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
 tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
 Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
</TE
XT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 108 ==============================================
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============= Transaction # 109 ==============================================
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<DOC>
<DOCNO>FT921-9644</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-CBKBQACWFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9202
11
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
 sugar crop forecast </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By DAMIAN FRASER </BYLINE>
<DAT
ELINE>    MEXICO CITY </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
 to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
 statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
 by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
 this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
 exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
 and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
 tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
 Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
</TE
XT>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 28 </PAGE>
</DOC>
============= Transaction # 110 ==============================================
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<DOCNO>FT943-3008</DOCNO>
<PROFILE>_AN-EIPC9ABKFT</PROFILE>
<DATE>9409
16
</DATE>
<HEADLINE> FT  16 SEP 94 / World Trade News: UK in investment acc
ord with Cuba </HEADLINE>
<BYLINE>    By PASCAL FLETCHER </BYLINE>
<DATELINE
>    HAVANA </DATELINE>
<TEXT>
Britain has signalled strong official encoura
gement for UK businesses to
invest in Cuba with an investment promotion and
protection agreement. The
agreement was initialled on Wednesday by Britain's
 trade and technology
minister, Mr Ian Taylor. Mr Taylor yesterday referred
to Cuba as 'a very
exciting market' at the end of a three-day visit, the fir
st by a British
minister to the island in almost 20 years.
'Clearly, the pot
ential here is very considerable,' Mr Taylor said. 'The
agreement will give
confidence that Cuba is a market with which British
businesses can deal.' He
 had led a British business delegation in talks on
investment opportunities
in air transport, construction, Cuba's sugar sector
and insurance.
Mr Taylor
, clearly distancing British government policy from the US trade
and financi
al embargo against the island, underlined the fact that Britain
had never cu
t its trade links with Cuba. British exports for the first half
of this year
 were up 180 per cent over last year. The 1993 export total was
Pounds 14m,
which was 50 per cent down from 1992. But he said many British
companies had
 found it difficult to do business in the past because of
Cuba's centrally-m
anaged and highly regulated state economy.
Cuba was moving to reform its eco
nomy to adapt to world trading conditions
after the collapse of the Soviet U
nion, its main trading partner. 'I made it
clear that British companies woul
d find dealing with Cuba easier the further
the reform process goes,' said M
r Taylor, who had talks with President Fidel
Castro. He said that while Cuba
n reforms were at an early stage, he was
assured by Mr Castro they would con
tinue.
He noted that British companies were already operating in Cuba in oil
exploration and oil services, agrochemicals, lubricants, soap and detergent
manufacture, citrus, financial services and the sugar industry.
It can only
 get better, Page 16
</TEXT>
<XX>
Countries:-
</XX>
<CN>GBZ  United Kingdom,
 EC.
    CUZ  Cuba, Caribbean.
</CN>
<XX>
Industries:-
</XX>
<IN>P9611 Admin
istration of General Economic Programs.
</IN>
<XX>
Types:-
</XX>
<TP>NEWS  G
eneral News.
</TP>
<PUB>The Financial Times </PUB>
<PAGE> London Page 6 </PA
GE>
</DOC>
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