FXUS04 KWBC 061902
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST MON DEC 06 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 07/0000 UTC THRU DEC 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
PRELIM DAY 1...

...WRN STATES...

ALTHO THE ETA AND GFS MASS FIELDS AREN'T THAT DIFF CONCERNING
THE SYS COMING INTO THE W CST LTR TNGT/TUE UNDERNEATH THE SERN
GULF OF AK VORTEX..THERE ARE RATHER SIGNIFICANT QPF DIFFS..MAINLY
IN HOW FAR S THE MDT TO HVY RNFL GETS ALG THE CA CST.   AS
USUAL..THE GFS IS BRINGING THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FARTHER S THAN
THE ETA IS.   GIVEN THAT EVEN THE ETA LLJ/PW FCSTS WOULD IMPLY
THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RNFL GETS AS FAR S AS THE GFS SOLN..WL LEAN
STGLY TWDS THIS GFS QPF.    IN ANY CASE..THE COMBO OF SOME HGT
FALLS/MID LVL FORCING AND AT LEAST A 6HR+ PD OF 50KTS OF WSWLY
LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO..SHLD BE ENUF TO SUPPORT MDT TO HVY CSTL
RANGES AND INTERIOR VLY RAINS FM OR INTO CA..WITH HVY SNOWS IN
THE HIER ELEVS OF THE SRN CASCADES..SHASTA-SISKIYOU AND MUCH OF
THE SIERRA.   PREFER THE HVIER ETA QPF IN THE SIERRA..BUT AGAIN
LIKE THE GFS SOLN OF TAKING MORE OF THE SIGNIFICANT RNFL FARTHER
S INTO ALMOST PTNS OF SRN CA.   FARTHER INLAND..XPC SOME MDT
SNOWS OVR THE HIER ELEVS OF ID INTO WRN MT AND NWRN WY IN
WHAT WL BE SUSTAINED LRG SCALE LIFT FM A S/WV WHICH MOVS BY
MON NGT AND THEN ANOTHER S/WV WHICH APCHS DURG THE DAY TUE.


...ERN STATES...

AGAIN..ALTHO THE MDL MASS FIELDS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE..THERE ARE SOME SLGTLY GTR QPF DIFFS..WITH THE GFS QPF
PREFERRED OVERALL.   THERE HAS BEEN ORGANIZED CNVCTN THIS
MRNG INTO THE ERY AFTN HRS FM THE LWR MS VLY ENEWD INTO THE TN
VLY..AND XPC THIS TREND TO CONT AS THE SRN ROCKIES MID/UPR LVL
SYS OPENS UP AND ACCELERATES DURG THIS PD.   THIS AXIS OF RNFL
WOULD BE UNDER COINCIDENT AXES OF 50+KTS OF SSWLY LLJ AND HIEST
PWS..WITH THE HVY RNFL SPREADING INTO THE OH VLY AND PTNS OF THE
GULF CST STATES LTR MON NGT AND TUE.   RNFL AMTS IN THIS HVIEST
AXIS SHLD EASILY BE IN THE 1.50-2.00 INCH RANGE..WITH SOME ISOLD
GTR THAN 2 INCH TOTALS PSBL.   WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS
RNFL/CNVCTV BAND WL INTERCEPT MOST OF THE HIER MSTR..XPC RNFL
AMTS IN THE COMMA HEAD..DIRECTLY ASSOCTD WITH THE LIFTING OUT
VORT..TO BE LESS THAN THE ETA IS FCSTG AND MORE IN LN WITH THE
GFS SOLN.   THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS OF MAINLY 1.00-1.50 INCH
RAINS FM SWRN MO NEWD INTO THE LWR GTLKS.   FARTHER TO THE
E..BRIEF BUT MODESTLY STG LOW LVL WAA PATN SHLD SUPPORT MOSTLY
MDT RAINS FM THE DELMARVA AREA NWD INTO SRN NEW ENG..WITH THE
HVIER GFS QPF PREFERRED HERE.   

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 444936 445943 449955 455963 463970 483976 510975 534971 
      546964 555941 549905 537881 518857 501812 489774 472723 
      451688 441674 433666 426663 422662 415662 410664 406666 
      403669 396674 392680 389686 383697 373716 364730 355749 
      348769 340792 328812 322823 312838 283887 264921 254953 
      252967 254972 259973 269969 281969 287968 292964 297961 
      304962 307962 312964 316964 323965 333967 339969 345971 
      350975 353978 357982 360983 365982 374975 384966 389961 
      396951 412932 426913 433911 438910 439913 443921 443926 
      444936 
 0.01 524253 521247 520239 521233 522224 523221 526220 531225 
      534224 535219 535208 538196 539193 539189 538186 531169 
      523154 516145 510137 499127 488120 483118 481116 476107 
      472102 464097 460097 456095 447093 440092 434090 427086 
      424088 423092 423095 421098 419101 418103 417100 412094 
      410091 407090 404095 402099 399101 394105 389112 382115 
      377120 375124 374129 373136 372153 370160 368165 364167 
      358168 353167 348165 343165 339167 335173 329183 325189 
      322198 322206 324213 328220 333224 338229 341235 344244 
      347249 352254 357256 362258 368259 376259 389261 404268 
      414272 422274 434267 446264 462265 469266 476269 485275 
      492280 495280 498283 501286 506292 511295 
 0.01 413076 414071 413065 410058 404055 398057 395059 392062 
      387066 384068 381069 378064 375057 373054 369051 364050 
      360050 357051 356055 357061 360068 367080 371086 375085 
      381087 386091 392087 398087 405083 410080 413076 
 0.25 513256 514250 514244 512236 509231 506226 502217 497209 
      490202 485202 477204 460199 457206 455207 449206 446204 
      459193 465187 470179 472178 476178 485181 494185 503188 
      514190 513178 511174 507171 503165 501161 500154 495147 
      492144 489142 484141 479140 471136 454130 452125 452123 
      453114 452109 450105 446102 442100 433099 430100 427104 
      421109 414112 408113 408118 410122 417138 416151 413162 
      411175 411187 411194 410198 407200 401199 396196 390193 
      374184 367180 362179 357179 353183 350186 348186 342185 
      339188 337192 336197 337207 341215 347228 352233 360237 
      367241 376245 397251 407254 413254 428254 443251 452249 
      460249 470250 477249 485246 492249 499253 505257 511258 
      513256 
 0.25 469784 467772 464759 459746 454734 444711 439699 434690 
      429685 423681 415682 411685 407690 402698 396706 391712 
      387720 381733 376749 373759 372769 371779 371786 371793 
      370802 369806 366809 361817 357824 352831 341842 338842 
      335841 333839 328839 323844 317852 313858 309865 310874 
      306881 300891 295898 292905 288918 285928 284937 285941 
      287943 293946 300950 308951 315951 325949 335947 341949 
      347954 351958 359962 364960 367958 380947 386941 391935 
      410910 420899 427890 433883 443871 448865 452856 456848 
      460851 461849 459841 462832 465821 468807 469793 469784 
 0.50 496222 497218 496217 494212 491211 490211 488214 485214 
      484214 485214 487217 489220 490220 493222 496222 496222 
 0.50 439717 435706 430696 424690 420689 416692 413695 404712 
      395725 390736 383751 379772 379795 369822 357839 350850 
      342859 331867 320877 315886 311895 310902 308907 301915 
      295924 300934 310937 319942 326940 333933 349920 354917 
      360916 362922 362927 360937 357944 356953 361955 365954 
      369951 374946 395921 402908 415893 424880 430872 434864 
      442849 449830 455812 457801 456789 454782 452776 447765 
      445757 443742 440728 439717 
 0.50 487170 488165 486161 479156 474152 468148 453148 446146 
      442141 439137 436136 434136 431140 429147 430155 430161 
      431165 439169 442174 442178 440181 439186 441189 443190 
      447190 451188 456184 458180 458176 457174 456171 455168 
      456164 459162 464162 478169 485171 487170 
 0.50 469223 470218 469214 463212 449213 442212 432212 423207 
      417208 414209 410208 402205 390196 378188 372185 363182 
      359182 357184 356190 353194 350193 347191 344189 341193 
      339201 340207 344214 348220 353225 360228 364232 371237 
      376239 388244 404249 411250 420250 432248 438246 445241 
      450239 457237 460237 463233 466226 469223 
 0.50 444113 444109 443109 441108 438108 435107 432107 429107 
      427108 426108 425111 426115 427115 429116 432117 433116 
      435115 438115 440115 443114 444113 
 0.50 310895 307896 306896 307897 310895 310895 
 1.00 437835 433833 432834 426844 421854 417862 412870 406879 
      404884 406885 409883 414877 421867 426859 430855 433851 
      436840 437835 
 1.00 444224 442221 439221 437222 439225 442225 444224 
 1.00 444154 439150 437150 435152 435155 439160 442162 445163 
      447161 447158 444154 
 1.00 430240 431236 426233 415228 416220 414216 411214 403209 
      395202 387197 379191 374190 369190 368197 366201 363203 
      357204 351202 348200 344198 342202 343206 347210 352216 
      360220 367227 376232 384238 388240 394243 405245 414246 
      420245 423244 427241 430240 
 1.00 353897 367890 380882 391871 396862 398854 398843 398832 
      396821 394811 391800 388790 385794 385802 386810 385820 
      383828 376841 368847 361857 343890 341896 342899 344900 
      347900 353897 
 1.00 381927 389917 393910 393903 389902 384907 380913 371926 
      369932 371936 374935 381927 
 1.50 419241 419236 416235 413232 410219 395204 386198 383196 
      376195 375198 376203 383211 387215 391218 398220 404222 
      405224 404228 400231 391226 375220 369217 367212 362210 
      359211 355212 359215 366222 375228 380231 384235 389237 
      396238 403241 409243 415243 419241 
 1.50 376875 379872 383858 381852 376858 371875 372876 373877 
      375876 376875 
 2.00 387200 381199 380200 380202 382204 388210 395215 397215 
      398213 398212 394207 387200  
 
$$