AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
245 PM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURE AND WINDS ALONG WITH THE                
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
DECREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A                  
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST IS                      
FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN                
REGION AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL SOUTH             
TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS KEEPING CLOUDS             
BANKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE ATTM.                  
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATING SC FIELD SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS                
THE REST OF THE SE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OUT WEST.                  
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO                    
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS PAC NW SHORT               
WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. ANY CLOUDS ACROSS THE                  
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEAR                 
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK             
LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND SHOULD SEE                 
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS                
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. LEE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS            
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN TIER SHORT WAVE...AND WITH             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PROMOTING GOOD MIXING...SHOULD SEE SOUTH TO                  
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN ACROSS                
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 0 AND             
+4C ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE             
OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND            
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH MT                 
VALLEYS. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AT OR            
BELOW 15 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF            
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE              
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE              
ANY HIGHLIGHTS ATTM...AS SET UP LOOKS MARGINAL IN DEVELOPMENT AND               
DURATION. IF WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY                 
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR WOULD BE ACROSS                         
BACA...KIOWA...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...WHICH DID NOT RECEIVE AS             
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LAST SYSTEM. -MW                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE-THU...                    
...HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...               
TUESDAY...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES 0C TO +2C OVER THE                  
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS TO AROUND +4C ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. MODELS                
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP INTO THE                
EASTERN CO PLAINS DURING TUESDAY...BUT ITS ONLY AFFECTS WOULD BE                
TO DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN             
CO PLAINS. MIXING TO 600MB WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S              
TO AROUND 70F ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. ANY "SIGNIFICANT" WINDS...               
BREEZY TO WINDY...WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MET                
MOS IS RELATIVELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS WIND SPEEDS(BIAS) AND OPTED               
FOR A 50/50 BLEND WITH THE MAV MOS FOR WINDS. WILL PROBABLY NEED                
ANOTHER DAY FOR FINE FUEL CURING GIVEN LAST NIGHT`S SNOWFALL                    
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO...BUT IT MELTED QUICKLY AND IT                  
DOESN`T TAKE LONG TO DRY OUT THE FINE FUELS(1 HOUR)...WHICH WILL                
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                       
WEDNESDAY...THIS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE POSSIBILITY FOR                 
ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER                
CONCERNS. THE NAM-WRF AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT INCREASE MIDDLE AND                  
MOUNTAIN TOP WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC/PBL                   
DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE CO/KS BORDER AND SHOULD MIX OUT AND                  
DIURNALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS DRY ADIABATIC MIXING                 
OCCURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MIXING...MIXED LAYER STEEP                 
LAPSE RATES 8.5-9.5 C/KM...AND MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE                
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 700MB                
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE +2C TO +4C OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH               
VALLEYS AND +6C TO +7C ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. DEEP DRY ADIABATIC                  
MIXING WOULD SUPPORT 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO AND 30S TO                 
60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS/RIDGES. ALSO...I WOULDN`T BE              
SURPRISED TO SEE SURFACE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS                 
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IF THE DEEP MIXING OCCURS. MODEL MOS AND                
RAW GRIDDED DATA ARE CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH IN THESE METEOROLOGICAL              
PATTERNS...SO I DROP DEW POINTS ABOUT 5 DEGREES WEDNESDAY                       
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE ALL                   
WEATHER FEATURES BECOMING JUXTAPOSED TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE                   
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FINER FUELS SHOULD TRYOUT AND THERE IS THE              
MODERATE DROUGHT OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BENT...                  
PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. HAINES VALUES WILL BE 4-5. DAYTIME                 
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 20%...BUT WHAT WILL BE THE               
WINDS. ALREADY HAD SEVERAL GRASSLAND WILDFIRE EVENTS ACROSS                     
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO IN THE LAST COUPLE OF                 
WEEKS. HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME                 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 10K FT MSL.              
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND JET STREAKS BEGIN              
TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THESE PERIODS. WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE                 
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO                
SEE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KTS ACROSS OUR NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED                 
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE PEAKS AND EASTERN SLOPES. GFS/DGEX/ECMWF                    
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN CO                    
THURSDAY. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALONG THE                      
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE                    
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS TOWARDS THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY                
MORNING. 800-700MB AND 700-600MB LAYER SUPPORTING FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING(IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION) TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION.                 
INITIAL THE SUB- CLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN...BUT                   
COULD SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW GIVEN THE                      
ELEVATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL              
VORTICITY VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHT BELOW 0 PVU SUPPORTS SOME LAYER               
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUPPORT SOME MODERATE-HEAVIER PRECIPITATION                
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I INCREASED POPS/WX TO                 
"CHANCE" ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR FOR                     
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY GIVEN THIS SETUP. THURSDAY`S HIGH                         
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO GIVEN THE                  
VIGOROUS WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND COULD SUPPORT A              
QUICK JUMP INTO THE 60S BEFORE FALLING MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON.                
TRENDED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ENSEMBLE DATA ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE              
FLOW REGIME ON DAY 6-7. GENERALLY STUCK WITH HPC TEMPERATURES. ANY              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH                
MUCH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE DIVIDE NEXT WEEKEND. METZE                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS KEPT MVFR AND PATCHY IFR                           
CIGS BANKED UP ACROSS RAMPART RANGE AND KCOS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO               
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS NORTHERLY DRAINAGE                  
FLOWS DEVELOP. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REST OF           
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. -MW                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
417 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN CONCERN IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW SHOWERS END.                                 
CURRENTLY...AS OF 2 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING ALONG THE I-25                  
CORRIDOR FROM S OF DENVER TO THE NM BORDER. SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW              
EXTENDED E OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. SNOW ACCUMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY                 
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE. WEB CAMS UP IN THE COS AREA               
SHOW THE INTERSTATE PARTIALLY COVERED WITH LIGHT SNOW.                          
TODAY...AS PER LATEST 06Z NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE..ANY SNOW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM PUB N TO KCOS SHOULD BE ENDING PRIOR TO            
SUNRISE (~7AM) AT  THE LATEST WITH CLOUDS DECREASING SHORTLY                    
THEREAFTER AS MID LVL DRYING ADVECTS INTO SE CO. SOME SNOW SHOWERS              
MAY LINGER A BIT LATER S OF PUB INTO MID MORNING. BY MID TO LATE                
MORNING NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MAX                 
TEMPS AROUND 50 (40S KCOS AREA)...30S AND 40S MTNS.                             
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S PLAINS AND            
TEENS MTNS. /HODANISH                                                           
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 00Z            
OP GFS IS SIMILAR TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO HAVE USED THIS RUN GENERALLY           
FOR FCST DETAILS. THE POLAR JET WILL BE N OF CO...RUNNING THRU NRN              
WY/SRN MT...THRU WED. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THRU TUE EVE.                 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THRU MIDWEEK...LEADING TO DRY AND                
WARM CONDITIONS OVR THE PLAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED                 
ISOLD TO SCT POPS TUE NITE THRU WED OVR THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH                  
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND EVEN THESE LOW POPS MAY BE A BIT                     
GENEROUS.                                                                       
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE AND PEAK ON                    
WED...LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A                   
CRITICAL FIRE WX SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...AS SFC WINDS DO NOT LOOK              
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE MARGINAL. EXCEPTION MIGHT            
BE OVR THE EXTREME SE GRASSLANDS WED INTO THU. TONIGHT`S LIGHT SNOW             
WILL HELP MOISTEN FUELS A BIT OVR MUCH OF SE CO...ALTHOUGH SHORT                
TERM FUELS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO DRY OUT.                                       
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE WED THRU FRI. THE TROUGH            
WILL AMPLIFY ON THU...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU ERN CO. STILL SOME             
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO EXPECT AND THE AMT AND                   
LOCATION OF PRECIP TO EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM. BEST BET FOR PRECIP              
APPEARS TO BE THU...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE                     
INTRODUCED LOW POPS OVR THE PLAINS THIS DAY...AND BOOSTED MTN POPS              
TO A GOOD CHANCE. ROSE                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS HOW FAST KCOS WILL CLEAR OUT. GUIDANCE              
SHOWS WEAK S FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THIS MAY KEEP LOW              
CIGS OVER THE KCOS AREA INTO MID MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE                
AREA CLEARING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING.                                       
AS FOR KPUB...LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z AND THEN                
DECREASE THEREAFTER...BECOMING VFR.                                             
KALS WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. /HODANISH                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34/44                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
310 PM MDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH PASSING             
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.                                           
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED              
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 80+ KT JET CORE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH                   
CENTRAL WYOMING ATTM. AT THE SFC...A BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY BACKED UP            
ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY AND BACK            
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH LATEST MSAS DATA INDICATING 1-2MB             
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR ATTM.                          
FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS                
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO                
WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                    
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. UVV ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND WEAK ISENTROPIC              
LIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP                 
ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON. I AM EXPECTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH               
THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH                
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SFC-H7 FLOW TURNS MORE EAST TO                
NORTHEAST BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH                  
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING                  
BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES                 
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND UP TO 1 ELSEWHERE.                     
SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY AS FLAT               
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. EAST TO NORTHEAST            
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP               
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY                 
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS EARLY                  
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT                   
ONLY FLURRIES IF AT ALL. -MW                                                    
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
...WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK ON TRACK...                                      
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASING MON THROUGH THU...                 
...HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...                          
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY ALL OF THE MODELS. VERY LITTLE                    
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD BE ON                
THE INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST                    
COLORADO PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO +2C OVER THE                        
MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS TO +6 TO +8C OVER THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS                
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD PROMOTE                
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND 30S TO                 
50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE WARMEST DAYS STILL               
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO               
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK              
ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DRYLINE DEVELOPS ALONG              
CO/KS BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT WITH THE DEEP               
"DRY" SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENTRAINING INTO THE LOWER TROP/SURFACE.                
A VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS              
THE FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY                  
MORNING AND MIGHT TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES                  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WITH DAYTIME                     
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...DAYTIME HUMIDITY              
LEVELS LESS THAN 20%...AND BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS...THERE IS A                 
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MAINLY                
ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN A FEW PLAINS           
GRASSLAND FIRES OCCURRING OVER THE PAST WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER             
CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY STILL                
LOOKING LIKE SEVERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY                
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS                   
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS INCLUDING LAS                   
ANIMAS... BENT...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. THE FINER                         
FUELS...ONE HOUR GRASSES...WEEDS...ETC...ARE STILL DEAD FAIRLY                  
"DRY" DESPITE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
TONIGHT. HELD OFF ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY GIVEN                 
THE MARGINAL WIND CONDITIONS WHILE ALL THE OTHER PARAMETERS WOULD               
EXIST. I DID UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO UPDATE THE                 
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH 10K FT MSL AND                 
ABOVE ELEVATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S/40S EACH DAY...HIGH TERRAIN               
SNOW MELT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                            
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PROJECTED TO              
SAG INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND RETREAT                
NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVERHEAD...BREEZY        
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.           
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH BORA TYPE MODERATE-HIGH WIND              
POTENTIAL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE             
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS...BUT DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE                 
BELOW 20% WITH BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING A CRITICAL FIRE               
WEATHER THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER CHANCES              
FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH VERY              
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT NOT AMOUNTING                
TO MUCH GIVEN THE VIGOROUS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK                 
INTO THE WEEKEND. METZE                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS                              
THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS TONIGHT...AS SHOWERS              
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND                
WEST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW            
BEHIND PASSING FRONT WITH KEEP MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS FOR KCOS                
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
419 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY-TODAY...JET EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC             
COAST WILL PULL WEAK UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT IN RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE             
IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO RAINFALL                 
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...WHICH IS                        
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE ON OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PASSAGE OF THE               
WEAK WAVE WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND START TO DRY THINGS                 
OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN COOL/DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.                  
WILL LEAVE SMALL POP IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY              
SUPPORT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS DURING DAYTIME HEATING...AS               
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY BREAKS UP.                                  
TONIGHT...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL        
AMPLIFY WHICH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SURGE OF                
NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW AND USHER IN SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR LATE. WITH              
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STAYING TO OUR WEST...WOULD EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH              
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE.                                                   
MON-WED...DRY FCST IN STORE AS A STRONG W/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS                   
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO               
THE FL STRAITS BY DAYBREAK MON AS THE DLM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH              
PLAINS DROPS INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SRN                   
BRANCH OF THE H25 JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GOMEX AND WILL BE IN                 
POSITION TO INDUCE A NEW SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS                 
THIS LOW FORMS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE TO                 
GENERATE A STEADY AND DEEP W/NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.                         
MON MORNING MINS IN THE M50S/L60S WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...BUT                      
INCREASING NWRLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE                   
U60S/M70S...~5-10F DEG BLO CLIMO.  CRUX OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH               
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MON NIGHT WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE                 
L/M40S NW OF ORLANDO...AND INTO THE U40/L50S ALONG THE COAST N OF               
JUPITER INLET.  ALL IN ALL...MINS WILL BE ~10-15F BLO CLIMO.                    
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE ON TUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS PULLS OFF                   
THE ERN SEABOARD.  WHILE THE NRLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO             
CLIMO ON TUE...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ADVECT MODIFIED OCEAN AIR             
ONSHORE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY WED                   
MORNING.                                                                        
THU-SAT...SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW ATLC BY                 
DAYBREAK THU...GENERATING A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL RETURN                
TEMPS TO NEAR CLIMO. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE FORECASTING THE NEXT STORM              
SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ~12Z THU...TOO FAR N TO                  
UPROOT THE RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM MOST LIKELY WILL RIDE UP THE                      
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE                 
OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                               
INCREASED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD GENERATE ABV CLIMO                 
TEMPS...WHILE A WEAKENING FRONT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM A DEPARTING            
PARTING PARENT LOW WOULD GENERATE LOW END POPS AT BEST.  LATEST                 
EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING ~20% POPS FRI THRU SUN AS THE              
SRLY FLOW TAPS MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIB.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL                 
IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LOW.  PREFER NOT TO INTRODUCE                 
THREE DAYS WORTH OF SMALL POPS WHEN THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS DRY...                
WILL NOT MENTION THEM FOR NOW UNTIL THE TREND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE             
ESTABLISHED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS/FOG EARLY THIS                   
MORNING BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE              
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. BY LATE TONIGHT A NORTH WIND SURGE              
SHOULD BEGIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.                                     
MON-FRI...LCL PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AFT 12Z MON AS THE SFC LOW FORMS               
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS. DEPENDING ON THE                   
STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS                 
DEVELOP OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS 18Z MON...AND                   
AREAWIDE BY 00Z TUE. NWRLY FLOW WOULD GENERATE HIGHER THAN NORMAL               
SEAS DUE TO THE OPPOSING WIND/GULF STREAM DIRECTIONS.                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO SCA BY 00Z WED AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS              
AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DEEP S.  HOWEVER...SEAS EXPECTED TO               
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS A NERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THE              
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE E FL COAST.                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD             
FRONT AS STEADY W/NWRLY FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. RFW                
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DUE TO               
4HR RH DURATIONS AND SFC WIND SPEEDS ~15MPH. LOW RH WILL CONTINUE               
TUE AFTN...BUT WITH SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE                 
NE...RFW CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY AND WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY                
TO LAKE CO.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  76  56  68  43 /  10  10  10   0                                           
MCO  78  57  72  45 /  10  10  10   0                                           
MLB  76  59  74  47 /  10  10  10   0                                           
VRB  77  60  75  48 /  10  10  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING            
     FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-                   
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.                                            
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY                                                   
LONG TERM....BRAGAW                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
345 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF                 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE FIRST IS OFF THE COAST OF THE             
CAROLINAS WITH A DRY FRONT EMANATING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SECOND            
LOW IS PERCHED OFFSHORE THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST. SANDWICHED                     
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS                  
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SPREAD                    
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT THIS HAS ONLY RESULTED IN CLOUD COVER AS                 
OPPOSED TO PRECIP AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS TOO LITTLE COOL                  
AIR TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC SLOPE FOR RAINFALL.                            
TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING                    
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT                   
RIDGE INFLUENCES REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. ALOFT...RUC ANALYSIS                 
CONTINUE TO SHOW A ZONAL FLOW WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES QUICKLY                    
TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.                                        
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...GFS AND NAM12 IN AGREEMENT ON A MORE               
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND INTO              
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A STRONGER IMPULSE MAKING ITS WAY INTO                
OUR REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TWO LOW PRESSURE REGIONS                
TO JOIN UP INTO A SINGLE TROUGH AXIS AND BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE               
REGION. WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS FOR FLORIDA ZONES TODAY...BUT                 
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A CONVERGENT BAND TO SET UP IN                      
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST COASTAL FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENCED              
BY THE NAM12. STILL BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MAINLY A COASTAL WATERS                
PHENOMENON AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20%.                                        
AS STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY                           
MORNING...LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WHILE A BAND OF              
BKN ALTO-CU SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE ACCORDING TO               
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY                   
AFTER 18Z MONDAY WITH SUB 10% RH ABOVE 850 MB FOR MOST AREAS. HIGH              
TEMPS MONDAY IN DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RUN                  
SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.                                                    
HIGH BRIDGES ACROSS VERY QUICKLY THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH CENTER                
OF HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA...PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING CONDITIONS FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ONLY FLY IN THE                      
OINTMENT WILL BE THE UPPER 60S WATER TEMPS WHICH WHEN COMBINED                  
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER THE MAINLAND MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A               
GRADIENT THAN MODELS DEPICT. FOR THIS REASON AND THE FACT THAT                  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL                  
HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR AN ADDITIONAL CYCLE.                             
HIGH REMAINED OVER THE AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY BUT             
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE              
MID 60S.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...DESPITE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH IS STUBBORN                
IN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BUT FINALLY DOES BY WEDNESDAY.                     
MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE GOING                
BACK ABOVE CLIMO BY WEEKS END. RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF                  
HIGH SHOULD ALLOW SOME COASTAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY WITH                
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IN STORE FOR THE MAINLAND SAT NIGHT AS NEXT               
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR IN BR IN JAX...CRG AND GNV EARLY THIS MORNING             
WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES                
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND                  
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND NE TODAY AS THE FRONT SLIPS S OF            
THE AREA. APPEARS MARGINAL SCEC CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR             
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SO WILL INCLUDE THIS HEADLINE. REINFORCING SHOT             
OF COOL AIR AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AROUND 30N75W THAT                   
TOGETHER MAY WARRANT SCA HEADLINES FOR MON INTO EARLY TUE. WINDS IN             
THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HOLD FOR THIS HEADLINE FOR NOW.           
WINDS RELAX LATE TUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.           
S-SELY FLOW ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES THE AREA.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS THIS                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS           
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO AND THUS WILL ONLY UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE                
FIRE WX WATCH WITH MIN RH VALUES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 30%. FOR                  
MONDAY...MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS ON NWLY FLOW NEAR 10-20 MPH WITH                 
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOKS                   
GOOD...AS IT APPEARS WE WILL RATHER EASILY MEET CRITERIA IN NE FL. A            
LITTLE BIT TRICKER IN SE GA WHERE WE NEED TO MEET SUSTAINED WIND OF             
20 MPH OR FREQ GUSTS TO 25 MPH. STILL APPEARS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE             
POSSIBLE FOR TUE MAINLY INLAND AREAS OF NE FL BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE            
ADVECTION OCCURS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  71  39  62  31 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SSI  65  46  60  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
JAX  71  44  65  36 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  70  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0                                           
GNV  76  45  66  34 /   0  10   0   0                                           
OCF  77  48  68  35 /   0  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING            
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-                    
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-                 
     UNION.                                                                     
     RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAKER...UNION...BRADFORD...            
     ALACHUA...MARION.                                                          
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING            
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL                
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND                    
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.                                        
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
300 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF               
OF MEXICO. NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                
EXISTS...GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM LOUISIANA              
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ALOFT...RUC                   
ANALYSIS SHOWS A ZONAL FLOW FROM 500 MB THROUGH 200 MB WITH CIRRUS              
TO THE WEST QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...FLOW HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE               
ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO KEEP A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE                    
STRATO-CU FROM CREEPING INLAND AND RESULTING IN CONTINUED MOSTLY                
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.                               
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A CHALLENGING PRECIP FORECAST IN                   
STORE AS MODELS AT LEAST AGREE ON A SHARP POP GRADIENT...BUT WHERE              
THAT GRADIENT RESIDES IS THE BIG QUESTION. BASED ON INITIALIZED                 
FIELDS...AND LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE NAM12 FOR THE SHORT TERM AS            
THE GFS SEEMS MUCH TOO SHARP WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS             
INITIALLY AND KEEPS THIS TREND GOING THROUGH 00Z SUN. THE NAM12 IS              
MUCH CLOSER TO THE INITIALIZED SURFACE PATTERN CURRENTLY OBSERVED               
OVER THE GULF AND PREFER ITS SOLUTION OF MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE                   
MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS WOULDS NOT              
SPREAD PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS GFS INDICATES AND POPS WOULD MAINLY BE            
CONFINED TO THE 3 SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.                  
A MID LEVEL KICKER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT                  
PERIOD ALLOWING PRECIP AXIS TO QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA.                 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS                 
WITH RIDGE INFLUENCES REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. A                 
MAJORITY OF THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF PARENT                
HIGH WHILE OUR AREA CONTINUES TO SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                
BUT STILL IN THE 70S.                                                           
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT AND SURFACE HIGH FINALLY BUILDS                     
EASTWARD FOR MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO REACH THE              
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MON AFTERNOON. HIGH                     
SETTLES OVER THE AREA NICELY MON NIGHT...WITH PRIME RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE GA PORTION. MAY ACTUALLY SEE                
TEMPS APPROACH FREEZING OVER INLAND PORTIONS TUE MORNING AND                    
EXPECT GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO COME DOWN A BIT AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT.            
.LONG TERM...SURFACE HIGHS INFLUENCE LOOKS TO BE LONG LASTING AS                
IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK BUT RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINS ITS POSITION              
OVER OUR AREA. MOST SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE              
UPPER BRANCH OF THE JET AND PASS SAFELY BY TO THE NORTH. NO                     
APPRECIABLE PRECIP ANTICIPATED IN THE EXTENDED AND TEMPS EXPECTED               
TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL            
SHIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING A SCT-BKN               
DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT FORMING AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES AHEAD OF            
A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT              
WITH VFR EXPECTED AND WIND SHIFT TO NW.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN WX CONDITIONS TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. SEAS OF 2-4 FT EXPECTED MOSTLY IN THE FORM            
OF LONG PERIOD E SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS               
TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NW LATE. AT THIS TIME...SCA              
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUN BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO                 
RAISE HEADLINES SO WILL WORD FOR INCREASING WINDS/SEAS IN THE                   
FORECAST. BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO MON AS 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR MS WITH NW WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT OR LESS               
FOR THE MARINE ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE TUE AND WED AS HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE APPEARS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. SOME UPWARD TWEAKS            
MADE TO WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN THE NW-N FLOW SUN-TUE.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...USING A MODEL BLEND BUT WITH SOME GREATER WEIGHT                
PLACED ON THE NAM THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDS OVER NE FL            
OVER PORTIONS OF SUWANNEE COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.                       
HOWEVER...DURATIONS ARE MARGINAL AND GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SUPPORT              
IT AT ALL. THUS WILL WORD THE FORECAST FOR LOW RH THERE TODAY AND               
LET DAYSHIFT MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE WARNING. FOR                
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NLY FLOW AND LOW RH             
DURATIONS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. THUS WILL CONTINUE            
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH MIN RH POSSIBLE IN THE 25-30% RANGE IN              
THE WATCH AREA. ANOTHER POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF         
NE FL.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  75  45  69  42 /  10   0   0   0                                           
SSI  69  51  68  47 /  10   0   0   0                                           
JAX  73  50  72  45 /  10   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  71  52  70  48 /  20  10   0   0                                           
GNV  74  51  76  45 /  20  10   0   0                                           
OCF  75  52  76  46 /  40  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-                    
     MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.                                                     
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY                                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
726 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONGER               
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED           
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CHARLESTON AND IS APPROACHING                      
BEAUFORT. IT SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY LATER THIS MORNING.                
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THUS BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN                 
YESTERDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 DEGREES                   
SOUTH. ONLY SKY COVER TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED               
CIRRUS.                                                                         
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL               
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. A SECONDARY                
SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA                   
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT              
LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH GFS SUGGESTING THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE             
COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA              
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE                 
OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT STILL KEEP VALUES BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS                   
POINT. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST AS A RESULT OF THE                  
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN ON MONDAY ON NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN                
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH SETTLING OVER THE               
SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON              
DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.                                                    
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH. BASED ON CLEARING               
SKIES...LIGHTER WINDS...AND A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS...NEAR TO                 
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.              
WILL PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF                   
I-95.                                                                           
AFTER A CHILLY START...TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER AS COLD ADVECTION ENDS            
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY                   
AIR...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE                  
MODIFIED ENOUGH TO AVOID FREEZING TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE                  
FROST IN INTERIOR PROTECTED LOCATIONS...HOWEVER. THE WARM-UP THEN               
COMMENCES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A DEFINITIVE MOVE                 
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE                 
BACK SIDE. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.                      
THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE                     
SATURDAY...SO I HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS                      
THEN...BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AT CHS...BUT               
WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT SAV.             
VWP AND START OF MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES 20+ KNOT WINDS AT 1K                
FEET...SO ONCE DAYTIME MIXING INITIATES...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS                 
WILL DEVELOP. GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR                 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MAINLY HIGH               
CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS.                                                      
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.           
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT             
TOO EARLY TO GET CONCERNED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS                  
MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTH                      
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.                  
ALTHOUGH WIND SURGE MAY BE A BIT DELAYED THAN ORIGINALLY                        
DEPICTED...STILL FEEL THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING AND                       
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES. LATEST                      
SOLUTION BY SHORT-RANGE RUC13 AGREES THAT THE GRADIENT WILL                     
TIGHTEN AND ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO SURGE INTO THE LATE MORNING                
HOURS. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED ONGOING ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE                
SC AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.                                                      
GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH              
ACCORDINGLY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST BY                   
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE                  
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION IS              
OCCURRING. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY REACH SOME TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT                
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IT                 
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES LATE MONDAY                
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TAME CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY                 
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE                            
OF AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH THE COOL TEMPS MAY KEEP RH A BIT HIGHER                
MONDAY...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE THAT WILL BE THE DAY WITH STRONGER                 
WINDS. RH COULD BE POTENTIALLY EVEN LOWER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                 
AFTERNOONS...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING                
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115.                                            
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING                
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047.                                                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-          
     352.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
320 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM CENTER             
OVER SOUTHEAST OH...WITH ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROF TRAILING BACK TO              
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.                 
WEAK LOBE OF LLVL RIDGING WAS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST FROM             
NEB...UP THROUGH THE THUNDER BAY REGION NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR.                   
ALOFT...W/V IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A WAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS            
AND ACRS WEST CENTRAL MN...AND ANOTHER ELONGATED VORT COMPLEX                   
SHEARING OUT WITH MAIN UPPER JET AXIS FROM NORTHERN ID...PUNCHING               
DOWN INTO NORTHWEST MO.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
BOTH THE NEW RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES                    
ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING TROF AXIS EXTENDING BACK OF MAIN CYCLONE              
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT DOWN EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE                
FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH 15Z OR SO AND WILL WALK THIS ACTIVITY OUT               
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS. NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL TRY AND             
BRING SOME OF THE CLEARING OVER WI BEHIND LLVL STRATUS DECK SEEN ON             
IR LOOP INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL CWA AS THE DAY                      
PROGRESSES...BUT ANY CLEARING MAY CU UP AGAIN WITH STEEPENING                   
LLVL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPSTREAM VORT MENTIONED ABOVE                
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE DOWN ACRS THE CWA TODAY IN BROAD BUT                 
STEEPENING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. FEEL THIS FEATURE COULD                 
GENERATE SOME PRECIP INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE                   
LOCAL FCST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING            
MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF I80...AND A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IF ANY             
OF THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF I80. COOL FETCH                    
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN               
MOST OF THE DVN CWA AND ONGOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD. IF THE SOUTH CAN               
GET SOME BREAKS...STEEP MIXING WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THE COOL                   
PROFILES AND SOME MID 40S WILL BE SEEN.                                         
TONIGHT...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING DOWN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MAY                
INDUCE MORE OF A ORGANIZED LIFT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT...AND WITH FCST              
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPER SATURATION ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND               
IN FAVORED -10 TO -20C LAYER...ITS LOOKING LIKE MORE AND MORE OF A              
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. EXTENT OF FORCING AND LOW TO                
MID LEVEL SATURATION SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS MAY EVEN HAVE                     
ACCUMULATIONS PUSHING AN INCH. MOST LOCALS WILL HAVE A DUSTING TO A             
FEW TENTHS BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WIDESPREAD 30 POPS FOR NOW...AND              
DAY CREW MAY HAVE TO BOOST THESE EVEN HIGHER. BACKING MEAN LAYER                
FLOW TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT                     
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY FACTOR FROM PREVENTING              
LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S OR EVEN SOME TEENS.   ..12..               
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP COOL AIR            
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED BY            
THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX OF RAIN            
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. KEPT MAINLY SNSH IN              
THE NORTH BUT CHANGED TO A MIX IN THE SRN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON             
WHERE LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40. ENERGY EJECTING             
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROF WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE OVER THE                
ROCKIES MONDAY...SETTING UP A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR               
THE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE                
AGREEMENT EARLY ON MOVING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER               
AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY.              
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EARLIER THAN YDA SOLUTIONS...WHICH WILL             
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TUESDAY.  HAVE KEPT TUES TEMPS ABOUT THE                
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP THE FROPA EARLY              
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THESE TEMPS ARE TO WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE              
NORTH.  PCPN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS NIL DUE TO THE LACK OF               
MOISTURE.  THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A BROAD H5 TROF DEVELOPING OVER              
THE WRN U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...IMPLYING TEMPS WILL HAVE A               
CHANCE TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING.  PCPN                  
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK GOOD WITH BOTH THE ECMWF             
AND GFS DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.             
..DLF..                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL                   
TERMINALS...BUT THESE SHOULD RAISE TO VFR CRITERIA BY 18Z. SOME                 
BREAKS MAY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OUT OF WI AND                   
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE DBQ AND POSSIBLY THE MLI TERMINALS DURING THE            
MIDDAY...BEFORE EXPECTED CU UP AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP             
LLVL LAPSE RATES. THESE RATES MAY ALSO HELP NORTH WINDS GUST TO                 
NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. SOME LIGHT MVFR SNOW COULD AFFECT THE CID           
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR OR EVEN             
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AT MOST TERMINALS BY 05Z-             
06Z TONIGHT.   ..12..                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
TRIBUTARY RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING...             
WITH WAPSI RIVER NEAR DEWITT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAJOR FLOOD                  
CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.  NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED           
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST RIVER LEVELS TO FALL.           
 THE SNOWS THAT OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY                
RENEWED THE SNOWPACK OVER PART OF THE PECATONICA AND ROCK RIVER                 
BASINS.  AS THIS SNOW MELTS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...THE RUNOFF WILL              
HELP KEEP UP THE WATER LEVELS ON THE PECATONICA AND ROCK RIVERS.                
..DLF..                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/DLF                                                                          
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
255 PM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
100 PM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS               
WHILE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE                 
CENTRAL ROCKIES.                                                                
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE                
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DISCUSSED IN THE              
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.                                                     
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND             
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING                
IMPACT FROPA WILL HAVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE COLDEST AIR               
WILL BE DIRECTED EAST OF THE AREA WHILE SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR                 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.              
295-305K PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW IN             
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SUPPORTS INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS BUT CONFIDENCE           
IN ADDING PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO LOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY                
SURGE INTO THE 70S WEST OF SFC TROUGH AXIS WED AFTERNOON WHERE                  
DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR            
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                               
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE                    
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE MID WEEK EXTRATROPICAL              
CYCLONE. THE GFS IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM IN             
THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION. THE GFS IS SLOWER BECAUSE IT SHOWS A VERY DEEP AND INTENSE              
CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB...WHICH SEAMS SUSPECT CONSIDERING THE 500MB                 
PATTERN LATELY. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR             
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT LESS AMPLIFIED GEM. AS A RESULT...THE                  
FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z                        
FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKER THAN THE GFS IS                    
ADVERTISING.                                                                    
26 44                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
255 PM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUC13 SUGGEST RED FLAG CRITERIA              
COULD BE REACHED IN A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RH VALUES APPEAR LIKELY...WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL            
BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MIXING FORECAST AT PEAK             
HEATING...FEEL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE 25 MPH             
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG.                                                          
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HRS. SCT CU              
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT. CU WILL               
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT SUNSET. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL             
APPROACH KMCK TONIGHT...WITH WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS               
WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS SO NO AVIATION IMPACTS.                                 
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
249 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                              
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME MONDAY NIGHT AS A             
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RIDGE THEN REBUILDS                 
ITSELF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER                 
EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THEN EXITING TROUGH ON TUESDAY. LOW               
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 06Z WED.                         
THE MAIN FORECAST DECISIONS HAVE TO DO WITH TEMPERATURES. SUBSIDENCE            
DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT             
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY THERE ARE NIL POPS FOR EACH         
PERIOD.                                                                         
THE GFS STILL SHOWS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 18-20 PERCENT MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON.  THE NAM IS BRINGING RH DOWN TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. GFS                 
SURFACE WIND ARE ONLY 10=15KTS WHILE THE NAM IS SHOWING 15KTS. THE              
RUC IS INDICATING ONLY 10KTS SUSTAINED WITH ONLY 5KT GUSTS. THESE               
WINDS ARE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WOULD NOT BE CONFIDENT             
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT OUT THE WATCH YET.                                  
850MB TEMPERATURES START WARMING AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES REACH THE            
MID/UPPER TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FALL 5-7 DEGREES                 
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE             
LOWER 70S MONDAY WITH MINS FALLING TO NEAR 30.                                  
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HRS. SCT CU              
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT. CU WILL               
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT SUNSET. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL             
APPROACH KMCK TONIGHT...WITH WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS               
WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS SO NO AVIATION IMPACTS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
147 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST PRODUCTS. LATEST SATELLITE            
TRENDS AND RUC RUNS SUPPORT IDEA OF KEEPING CLOUDS IN SOUTH FOR MUCH            
OF THE NIGHT...WITH BREAKS WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF                    
FORECAST AREA. THE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS WILL DETERMINE OVERNIGHT                
LOWS. HAVE KEPT LOWS AS THEY WERE IN THE NORTH...BUT RAISED LOWS A              
DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.               
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HOLD ONTO SPRINKILES A LITTLE LONGER                
THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF AREA.                               
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                                           
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN            
FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURE              
FALL WILL BE SLOWER THE REST OF THE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL            
CONTINUE BUT WILL BE WEAK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THERE WILL            
BE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL.               
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS FROM            
18Z NAM AND GFS LOOKS LIKE OVERCAST WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE                
NIGHT...WITH BREAKS TOWARDS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN                
DURING DAY SUNDAY. LATEST RUC ALSO IN SUPPORT OF THIS. AS SUCH HAVE             
ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT                      
OBSERVATIONS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINTS AND WINDS. OVERALL FORECAST IN             
GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGE TO ZFP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER AFM AND PFM               
HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS WELL AS NDFD AND POINT AND CLICK FORECAST. AT              
THE VERY LEAST AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP WILL BE NEEDED LATER TO REMOVE              
THE EARLY WORDING FOR TONIGHT.                                                  
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                  
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A               
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT               
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WAS BATTLING TO TAKE FOOT HOLD OVER THE             
AREA. THE SUN DID A GOOD JOB AT ERODING AWAY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE            
CLOUDS THAT WERE FORMING IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE                             
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE I 75 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND WEST OF LONDON.               
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THEIR            
MARCH EASTWARD AND THEN BURN OFF ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS           
FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE BIGGEST            
ISSUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. THE NAM             
MODEL SOUNDING IN QUITE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE                  
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. AS SUCH...JUST WENT A MIX OF ISOLATED TO             
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS             
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DUE          
TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE...LITTLE OR NOW ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE COLDER ETA             
AND WARMER GFS MOS.                                                             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN            
PROGGED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO A             
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.                
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE             
AREA WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE                  
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO HAVE                
CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FOR                 
MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR               
HIGHS ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS COME IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO                
REASONABLE VALUES...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                       
TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT COMING             
IN A BIT SOONER THAN BEFORE...AND GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO THE FASTER            
FLOW PATTERN...THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED             
POPS IN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.                                   
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS            
TIME. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE                  
FRONT...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE UP MORE IN THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST              
THEN BECOMES ESPECIALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS A                
PLAINS SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OFF TO THE WEST...BRINGING THE BOUNDARY            
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...AND ALLOWING US TO BE IN THE               
WARM SECTOR UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.          
HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF            
OF THE WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES IN EVERY PERIOD...GIVEN THE          
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL            
START OUT BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE MODIFYING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE                
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HANG OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...           
IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE              
MUCH BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN. GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT OF                
CLOUD BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN           
LATE IN THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION.              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JJ/SBH                                                             
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...RAY                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
956 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST PRODUCTS. LATEST SATELLITE            
TRENDS AND RUC RUNS SUPPORT IDEA OF KEEPING CLOUDS IN SOUTH FOR MUCH            
OF THE NIGHT...WITH BREAKS WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF                    
FORECAST AREA. THE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS WILL DETERMINE OVERNIGHT                
LOWS. HAVE KEPT LOWS AS THEY WERE IN THE NORTH...BUT RAISED LOWS A              
DEGREE OR TWO IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.               
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO HOLD ONTO SPRINKILES A LITTLE LONGER                
THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF AREA.                               
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                                           
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN            
FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURE              
FALL WILL BE SLOWER THE REST OF THE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL            
CONTINUE BUT WILL BE WEAK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THERE WILL            
BE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL.               
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS FROM            
18Z NAM AND GFS LOOKS LIKE OVERCAST WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE                
NIGHT...WITH BREAKS TOWARDS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN                
DURING DAY SUNDAY. LATEST RUC ALSO IN SUPPORT OF THIS. AS SUCH HAVE             
ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT                      
OBSERVATIONS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINTS AND WINDS. OVERALL FORECAST IN             
GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGE TO ZFP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER AFM AND PFM               
HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS WELL AS NDFD AND POINT AND CLICK FORECAST. AT              
THE VERY LEAST AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP WILL BE NEEDED LATER TO REMOVE              
THE EARLY WORDING FOR TONIGHT.                                                  
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                  
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A               
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT               
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WAS BATTLING TO TAKE FOOT HOLD OVER THE             
AREA. THE SUN DID A GOOD JOB AT ERODING AWAY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE            
CLOUDS THAT WERE FORMING IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE                             
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE I 75 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND WEST OF LONDON.               
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THEIR            
MARCH EASTWARD AND THEN BURN OFF ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS           
FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE BIGGEST            
ISSUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. THE NAM             
MODEL SOUNDING IN QUITE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE                  
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. AS SUCH...JUST WENT A MIX OF ISOLATED TO             
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS             
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DUE          
TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE...LITTLE OR NOW ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE COLDER ETA             
AND WARMER GFS MOS.                                                             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN            
PROGGED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO A             
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.                
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE             
AREA WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE                  
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO HAVE                
CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FOR                 
MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR               
HIGHS ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS COME IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO                
REASONABLE VALUES...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                       
TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT COMING             
IN A BIT SOONER THAN BEFORE...AND GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO THE FASTER            
FLOW PATTERN...THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED             
POPS IN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.                                   
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS            
TIME. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE                  
FRONT...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE UP MORE IN THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST              
THEN BECOMES ESPECIALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS A                
PLAINS SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OFF TO THE WEST...BRINGING THE BOUNDARY            
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...AND ALLOWING US TO BE IN THE               
WARM SECTOR UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.          
HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF            
OF THE WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES IN EVERY PERIOD...GIVEN THE          
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL            
START OUT BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE MODIFYING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE                
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO COVER EASTERN KY FOR MOST OF THE DAY              
BUT THE LATE MARCH SUN KEPT ERODING THE EDGE AWAY AS FAST AS IT WAS             
ADVANCING. WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUNSHINE THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BE             
ABLE TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE           
CLOUDS TO THE AREA TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND WITH THE RISING SUN THE             
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR. SOME SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE           
AREA BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FCST. WILL PROBABLY HAVE               
SOME VCSH IN THE 06Z FCST.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JJ/SBH                                                             
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...DUSTY                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
709 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN            
FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURE              
FALL WILL BE SLOWER THE REST OF THE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL            
CONTINUE BUT WILL BE WEAK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THERE WILL            
BE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL.               
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS FROM            
18Z NAM AND GFS LOOKS LIKE OVERCAST WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE                
NIGHT...WITH BREAKS TOWARDS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN                
DURING DAY SUNDAY. LATEST RUC ALSO IN SUPPORT OF THIS. AS SUCH HAVE             
ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT                      
OBSERVATIONS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINTS AND WINDS. OVERALL FORECAST IN             
GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGE TO ZFP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER AFM AND PFM               
HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS WELL AS NDFD AND POINT AND CLICK FORECAST. AT              
THE VERY LEAST AN UPDATE TO THE ZFP WILL BE NEEDED LATER TO REMOVE              
THE EARLY WORDING FOR TONIGHT.                                                  
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                                  
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A               
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT               
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WAS BATTLING TO TAKE FOOT HOLD OVER THE             
AREA. THE SUN DID A GOOD JOB AT ERODING AWAY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE            
CLOUDS THAT WERE FORMING IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE                             
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE I 75 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND WEST OF LONDON.               
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THEIR            
MARCH EASTWARD AND THEN BURN OFF ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS           
FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE BIGGEST            
ISSUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. THE NAM             
MODEL SOUNDING IN QUITE UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE                  
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. AS SUCH...JUST WENT A MIX OF ISOLATED TO             
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS             
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DUE          
TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE...LITTLE OR NOW ACCUMULATION            
IS EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE COLDER ETA             
AND WARMER GFS MOS.                                                             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN            
PROGGED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONING TO A             
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.                
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE             
AREA WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE                  
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO HAVE                
CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FOR                 
MONDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR               
HIGHS ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS COME IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO                
REASONABLE VALUES...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                       
TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT COMING             
IN A BIT SOONER THAN BEFORE...AND GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO THE FASTER            
FLOW PATTERN...THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED             
POPS IN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.                                   
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS            
TIME. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE                  
FRONT...HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE UP MORE IN THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST              
THEN BECOMES ESPECIALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS A                
PLAINS SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OFF TO THE WEST...BRINGING THE BOUNDARY            
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...AND ALLOWING US TO BE IN THE               
WARM SECTOR UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.          
HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF            
OF THE WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES IN EVERY PERIOD...GIVEN THE          
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL            
START OUT BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE MODIFYING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE                
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO COVER EASTERN KY FOR MOST OF THE DAY              
BUT THE LATE MARCH SUN KEPT ERODING THE EDGE AWAY AS FAST AS IT WAS             
ADVANCING. WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUNSHINE THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BE             
ABLE TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE           
CLOUDS TO THE AREA TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND WITH THE RISING SUN THE             
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR. SOME SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE           
AREA BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FCST. WILL PROBABLY HAVE               
SOME VCSH IN THE 06Z FCST.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JJ/SBH                                                             
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN                                                          
AVIATION...DUSTY                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1117 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND              
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN                   
WELL OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE                  
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND                  
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO AND                  
TENNEESEE VALLEYS BY LATE FRIDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
01Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LCTD JUST W OF FA XTNDG               
FROM NR CHO ON S TO GSO WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE OVR FA. INTERESTING                 
DROP IN TMPS THIS EVE ACROSS ERN SCTNS GIVEN CRNT DP TMPS IN THE                
20-25 DEGREES. MID LCL CLD DECK (ARND 8K FT) NOW OVRSPRDG ERN                   
PIEDMONT AREAS WITH HIGH LVL CLDNS MOBG N OF DVLPNG CSTL LOW.                   
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCRG ALONG TROF...HOWEVER HAVEN NOT SEEN               
ANY STATION RPTG ANY PCPN SINCE AIRMASS IS SO DRY.                              
MODELS CONT TO HAVE MSTR DIFFERENCES THRU OVRNITE HRS. GFS QUITE                
AGGRESSIVE WITH UP TO .05 QPF WHILE NAM/RUC AND SREF SHOW LTL IF                
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.                                                            
FOR OVRNITE FCST...FOLLOWED A RUC/SREF BLEND OF KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE          
PCPN ACROSS WRN MOST CNTYS (FROM LKU-AVC) WITH A 1 CNTY BUFFER ZONE             
FOR SLGHT CHC MAINLY W OF I95. REWORDED PCPN AS LIGHT ALONG I95                 
CORRIDOR (SPRNKLS?). P-TYPE YET ANTHR CONCERN AS TMPS XPCTD TO FALL             
INTO L-M30S BY 12Z. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS ON LTST SNDGS...THNK MOST IF              
ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT AND IN LIQUID FORM WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES             
PSBLY MIXED IN. IT WUD HAVE TO PRECIPITATE HARD FOR ANY SGNFCNT                 
SNOW TO OCCUR...AND THAT IS NOT XPCTD TO HAPPEN. LWRD TMPS ACROSS               
ERN SHORE AREAS ABOUT A CAT GIVEN TMPS INTO THE L-M 30S THIS EVE.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                          
MON INTO MON NGT...SFC LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY WELL OFF THE MID                  
ATLC CST AS THE UA TROF PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. THE                      
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLDS AND              
SLGT/SML CHC FOR RAIN. STILL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PCPN FM THESE                   
SYSTEMS AS QPF IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE               
IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ON MON. SFC LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER                 
OUT TO SEA TUE...AND HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA THEN OFFSHR.                 
MSTLY SNY TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S TO ARND 60.                         
A WEAK COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED AFTN. NO PCPN EXPECTED               
WITH GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY SKY. MILDER TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR              
60S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THURS MORNING AND WARM FRONT                 
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURS AFTN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO              
WORK WITH SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS. SHOULD BE PRETTY               
WARM ON THURS AS A RESULT...BUT LOWERED HIGH JUST A FEW DEGREES BLO             
GUIDANCE FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE (WENT WITH MID TO UPR            
60S RATHER THAN LWR 70S THAT GUID INDICATES). EVEN WARMER ON FRI AS             
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE SEE JUST             
PCLDY SKIES. EXPECTING LWR 70S MOST AREAS (MID 60S EASTERN SHORE                
WHICH TYPICALLY STAYS A BIT COOLER IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME)...BUT                
COULD EASILY SEE A FEW SPOTS CLOSER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND.                     
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM               
MVG THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER...BRINGING THE              
BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING                  
WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTN THROUGH EARLY SUN                    
MORNING. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLN FOR NOW AS THAT`S HOW THE              
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATELY...CHANCE POPS FOR SAT TIMEFRAME AND            
KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER NEXT 6 TO 8 HRS BUT WILL REMAIN VFR WITH             
NE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYS WILL MOVE INTO REGION               
OVERNIGHT THEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COOLER              
TEMPS OVER THE MID ATLC FOR MON. SLIGHT CHC OF -RA/SN MIXED WEST                
OF RIC EARLY MON THEN CHC OF -RA OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE                 
AFTN/EVENING PERIOD. CIGS MON LIKELY TO LOWER INTO THE 3500-5000                
FT RANGE THRU THE AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY N-NE INTO MON...THEN SHIFT              
MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUE. TROF WILL LIFT OUT LATE MON AND HI PRES                  
WILL BUILD INTO REGION TUE. FNTL BNDRY FCST TO STALL ACROSS AREA                
LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC FROM A CEILING                
PERSPECTIVE...ALTHO NOT A LOT OF RAIN EXPECTED ATTM.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SEAS IN SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE COME DOWN SO HAVE DROPPED ALL SCA.                 
WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW ESP OFFSHORE AS A LOW OFF THE SE U.S.               
COAST HEADS UP TO THE NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND STRENGTHENS.                   
LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SCA               
CONDS BY EARLY EVNG...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT PUT FLAGS UP AT THIS TIME               
DUE TO ONGOING SCA CONDS TDY. EVNG SHIFT OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL                
MOST LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES HOWEVER. WINDS REMAIN                     
RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN DROP OFF ON TUES AS THE                
LOW PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE.                                                     
WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AGAIN ON WED AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES                      
OFFSHORE...BUT SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. S WINDS OF              
15 TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MPR                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TMG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMG                                                                
LONG TERM...JYM                                                                 
AVIATION...CY                                                                   
MARINE...JYM                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
130 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.                   
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST                    
OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...AS A                     
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST                    
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST                   
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP MORE THEN WERE FORECAST SO TWEAKED THEM UP               
SOME. ALSO MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AS CURRENT DROP              
CORRESPONDS WITH RUC13 WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THEN EARLIER                   
FORECAST. RUC DOES SHOW THAT MINS ARE REACHED BY 09Z THEN TEMPS                 
START RISING. WITH CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD AND SREF AND MODELS ALL                
DRY WILL DROP ANY CHC OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSCD WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM                 
AS LIFT/FORCING WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. TRICKY MAX                 
TEMPS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCD WITH THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES              
SOUTHWARD. GOOD BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS OVER NRN HALF OF              
THE CWA LOW-MID 50S/MID-UPR 60S WHILE LOWER 70S LOOK TO PREVAIL                 
OVER SRN THIRD. WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS SSW WINDS                 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE E/NE WINDS DVLP NORTH OF IT (MAY MAKE FOR              
CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE ERN SHORE).                        
AS SYSTEM TRAVERSES NW/SE OVER THE CWA...SOME SHRA MAY DVLP (ESP FAR            
NRN ZONES). SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT THINK                
THIS IS OVERDONE AND...WITH MHX COLAB...HAVE JUST ADDED A ISO THREAT            
OF THUNDER OVER SE CWA NEAR THE BAY/SRN HALF OF COASTAL WATERS                  
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY (IF ANY) WILL BE PRESENT. SHORT WINDOW OF                
OPPORTUNITY IN THE EVENING FOR ANY THUNDER (MAY EVEN JUST DVLP                  
OFFSHORE) BEFORE ENERGY FROM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND                 
DRYING DVLPS EARLY IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.                                      
SHOULD BE DECENT DRYING INTO SUNDAY WITH RH LVLS FALLING ONCE                   
AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVRHD (ESP INLAND). IT WILL ALSO BE                
MUCH COOLER AS TEMPS GENERALLY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPR 40S                 
NEAR THE COASTLINE TO MID 50S FAR INLAND.                                       
NRN STREAM ENERGY PUSHES TWRDS THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SUN AS                 
A COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DVLP OFFSHORE ON MON. MODELS STILL IN                   
DISAGREEMENT ON OVERALL STRENGTH/LOCATION OF SYSTEM NEAR THE                    
COASTLINE...BUT LOOKING MORE EVIDENT OF A RAIN MAKER (MAINLY                    
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY). OVERALL PRECIP                   
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON TIMING OF H5 TROF AXIS AND HOW FAR OFF THE               
COAST THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER THE MAIN SYSTEM DVLPS.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM BEING KEPT EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE BY MOST OF             
THE MODELS NOW...HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE POPS MON NIGHT SLIGHTLY AND             
TO ALSO REMOVE MENTION OF SN WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS                
LONG AS THIS TREND CONTINUES...NEXT SHIFT MAY EVEN ELIMINATE POPS               
ALTOGETHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STRONG HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SE                
U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THOUGH A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON             
WED...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING SO NO POPS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES            
WOULD BE LATE ON WED AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH IN NC...BUT               
RECENT DRYING TRENDS IN THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS WOULD INDICATE THE            
CHANCE ISN`T REALLY THAT GREAT. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE/PRECIP...TEMPS            
ON WED HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING QUITE WARM...MID TO UPR 60S              
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.                                                          
SOME DEFINITE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE               
NEXT SYSTEM THURS/FRI...SO DIDN`T GO OVERBOARD ON POPS FOR NOW UNTIL            
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS. WENT CLOSE TO CLIMO AVERAGES              
FOR TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD CVR WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TODAY THEN MID CLOUDS MOVING                  
IN. A CLIPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA TDY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID              
CLOUDS WITH SLT CHC OF LOWERD VIS AND CIGS IN SCT RAIN. ATTM ANY                
PCP LOOKS TO BE WIDELY SCT AND HAVE NO WX IN THE TAFS TDY. SW                   
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KT...AFTER 11Z LIKELY                
AT ORF/ECG/PHF. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...THEN CIGS                   
RAISING AFTER FROPA.                                                            
WEAK LOW PRES OFF THE CST THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH                
PRES SYSTEM OVER THE WATERS MON AND TUE...AND ANY SFC LOW PRES                  
DVLPMNT WELL OFFSHORE. ECMWF STILL HAS CSTL LOW STRONGER AND                    
FARTHER WEST FOR MON/TUE. ATTM THERE IS A CHC FOR LOWER CIGS FOR                
CSTL TAFS ON MON/TUE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST NAM DATA...DECIDED TO RAISE SCA FOR CHES                
BAY S OF WINDMILL PT. WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT...BUT EXPECT GUSTS               
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO BE AROUND 20 KT...WHICH MEETS SCA              
CRITERIA.                                                                       
THIS MORNING`S FCST IS TOUGH...A WEAK LOW MVS INTO EASTERN VA                   
THIS MORNING REACHING THE COAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS                  
AND THE LOW NEARS THE COAST...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH                  
DAYBREAK AND APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER COOL WATER TEMPS (BLO               
50F) WILL REDUCE MIXING TO SFC...REDUCING GUST POTENTIAL. STIL                  
EXPECT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY WHERE SCA IS IN                     
EFFECT TDY. THE LOW MVS OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTN...AND WINDS                   
WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER.                                                       
FROM SUN THROUGH TUES WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BLO 20 KTS...BRIEFLY                 
INCREASING AT TIMES AS A LOW MVS NORTHEAST BUT REMAINS WELL                     
OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL                 
OFFSHORE SO HAVE LOWERED WINDS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE              
TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE. WINDS DO LOOK TO INCREASE ON WED AS THE               
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...BUT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK                   
SLIGHTLY INTO THURS BASED ON TRENDS OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS           
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631-632.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CCW/JAB                                                             
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...JYM                                                                 
AVIATION...ALS                                                                  
MARINE...ALS                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
800 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                              
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RIDGING ACROSS LAKE                           
SUPERIOR...EXTENDING FROM THE MAIN SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.                 
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS MOVING SE ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND NVA MOVING OVER            
THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION /SFC DWPTS IN             
NW ONTARIO WELL BELOW ZERO/ SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE LAKE              
EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE                  
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY THIS EVENING              
COMBINED WITH LOW LAKE-AIR STABILITY /850MB TEMP -16C/...WILL                   
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS IN A SMALL AREA FROM SHOT POINT EAST              
TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE RUC SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS             
THE WINDS BACK AROUND. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD HOLD LESS             
THAN AN INCH.                                                                   
AS THE WINDS BACK AROUND TONIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE              
KEWEENAW PENINUSLA WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE             
FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE NORTH OF HOUGHTON...AND HAVE OPTED TO                
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH              
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY              
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY.                           
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD NIGHT ACROSS UPPER             
MICHIGAN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW COVER IN SOME                       
PLACES...AM THINKING THAT SOME INLAND AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP TO              
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TONIGHT. IF IT CAN CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECAST               
TEMPS COULD DROP MORE THAN THAT.                                                
MONDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY              
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. WITH THE W-SW FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF             
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HOUGHTON ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL            
/ONLY AROUND -9C/ AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONG.                 
NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY A SMALL POP THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION.            
WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN/ IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST              
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. MANY PLACES WILL BE                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY SO IT SHOULD BE PLEASANT ALTHOUGH A            
LITTLE CHILLY WITH HIGHS 30-35.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                                
FOCUS FOR MON NIGHT-TUE TURNS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF CLIPPER SHRTWV                
MOVING ESE FM SCNTRL CAN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF ASSOC SFC LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO                 
TRACK ACROSS NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE MORNING AND THEN MOVES             
NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING FAIRLY              
IMPRESSIVE UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 120+ KT H3 JET             
MAX ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE DPVA AND VIGOROUS 850-500 MB Q-VECT CONV.             
SHARP ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 285-290K SFCS NOTED MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SHORTWAVE...TRANSITIONING TO DESCENT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
OVER WRN HALF COUNTIES BY 12Z TUE. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK OF THE LOW            
FAVORS THE NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES FOR THE HEAVIER/MORE SUSTAINED               
PCPN AND QPF FIELDS GENERALLY BARE THIS OUT. THE ONE THING THAT MAY             
LIMIT PCPN/SNOW AMOUNTS IS FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE/SFC               
LOW. STILL WITHMIXING RATIOS OF 3G/KG ADVECTING OVER THE AREA AND               
6HR OF MORE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THE FAR ERN                   
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY PUSH ADVISORY TOTALS WITH 3 INCHES OF MORE OF            
SNOW POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE MORNING ALONG            
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WRAPAROUND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF THE               
LOW. WOULD EXPECT THE REST OF THE CWA THE GENERALLY FALL IN THE 2-4"            
RANGE FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM.                                       
EXPECT PCPN TO GENERALLY DIMINISH BY TUE AFTN BEFORE ANOTHER                    
SHORTWAVE RETURNS TUE EVENING AND BRINGS A REINFORCING COLD SHOT AND            
CHC OF ENHANCEMENT TO LES. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PCPN WL FALL AS SN...             
BUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR SCNTRL AREAS IN DOWNSLOPING NW              
FLOW LLVLS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW WITH SOME RAIN. ANOTHER                  
CONCERN FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING WL BE WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING             
AREAS OVER THE SRN TIER AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GFS FCST               
SDNGS FOR MNM AND ESC SHOWS 35-40 KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR AT              
BOTH MNM AND ESC. WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW COULD REACH 30 KT BY TUE              
EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                                  
IN THE WAKE OF TUE CLIPPER...EXPECT LES TO BE ONGOING TUE NGT INTO              
WED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C MOVING OVER THE LAKE. HI PRES              
RDG AXIS WILL THEN MOVES OVHD WED NIGHT AND SHUT OFF THE LES.                   
STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE                
PLAINS BY THU/FRI. HOWEVER...NCEP FAVORED BLEND OF 00Z GFS SOLN AND             
ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH NOW TAKES LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES               
AND OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT AND FRI. ECMWF HAS BEEN EVEN FARTHER E                
WITH THIS SYSTEM THE LAST FEW RUNS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPR MI IS               
THAT HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. BEST              
CHCS FOR PCPN THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WILL BE SCNTRL AND EAST WHERE             
I HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHC POPS. ALSO WITH MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK...IT              
LOOKS LIKE PCPN TYPE WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT MIX              
WITH LIQUID/FREEZING PCPN FROM PREV FCST. BIG DIFFERENCE IN 850 MB              
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ECMWF MUCH                 
WARMER THAN MORE AMPLIFIED SOLN OF GFS WHICH MORE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD            
BEHIND THE LOW. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD GFS TEMPS AND KEPT LOW CHC             
POPS FOR LES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IN AREAS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME NW THIS EVENING THEN SW BY MON MORNING.              
THE BACKING WINDS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE             
AREA SHOULD LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT KSAW. AT KCMX MAINLY VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR MVFR               
CIGS WITH LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS              
THE WINDS BACK TO THE WSW RESULTING IN A LONGER FETCH ACROSS WRN                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE)...                                                  
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS AND WAVES              
SHOULD RELAX QUITE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM                
APPROACHES ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS              
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT MON AFTN AND TO GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
TUE. BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND THE NEARSHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE CLIPPER PASSES              
BY TUE INTO TUE GALES OR NEAR GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE                   
EVENING. W-NW WINDS NEAR 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING                
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MRD                                                       
LONG TERM...VOSS                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
717 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO LOWER POPS AND REDUCE SNOW                   
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR              
AND OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION ARGUES FOR                
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL WANE                
DURING THE EVENING. SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FURTHOR INCREASE IN                    
COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROUGHLY              
AROUND LAPEER COUNTY...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO            
CENTRAL LOWER MI. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH                
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE                
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES IS LEADING TO QUITE A BIT OF RETURNS ON                 
RADAR ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB. GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE                
REPORTS...SUSPECT THERE IS A LOT OF VIRGA WITH THESE RETURNS. THE               
LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF DTW DOES SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR                    
BELOW 5K FEET. THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT                  
SLIDING INTO THE DETROIT AREA BY 09Z. SUSPECT LOSS OF DAYTIME                   
HEATING WILL CAUSE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF RADAR                     
RETURNS. LATEST RADAR HOWEVER ARGUES FOR KEEPING A TEMPO GROUP FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FNT AND MBS TAF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT              
THIS TIME...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW AT DTW/DET APPEAR TOO LOW TO                   
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.                                                            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT            
AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF               
LAKE HURON MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MVFR LAKE STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO              
EARLY MON MORNING AT FNT AND DTW/DET. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE               
JUST A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MONITOR SATELLITE                
TRENDS.  NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MBS PREDOMINATELY VFR             
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                             
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN            
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS ALSO WORKING ITS WAY                   
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA RIGHT NOW...PER OBS/MSAS                    
ANALYSIS...AND THIS FEATURE IS RIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE                 
FRONT. PREFER THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE             
WAVE...AND ITS DEPICTION OF HOW THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INTERACT                
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MODELS ALL                 
INDICATE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN OCCURRING THIS EVENING             
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE WAVE               
RIDES SOUTH OF THERE. UPWARD FORCING BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER              
AS YOU MOVE TO THE SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DEEP INSTABILITY              
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500MB...WITH MOISTURE OK BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE              
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. FORECAST FOR AROUND              
AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND THE TRI-CITES AND THUMB STILL               
LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS            
(IF ANY) BY THE TIME YOU GET TOWARDS DETROIT. HAVE DECREASED POPS               
FOR THE SOUTH CWA AND DELAYED THEM SOMEWHAT TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS             
AND EXPECTED FORCING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY             
MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT AS MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER            
TEENS TO NEAR 20.                                                               
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD TO BEGIN MONDAY...WITH 850 MB                  
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW                 
NORMAL.  ASIDE FROM SOME MIDDAY DIURNAL CU...A GOOD AMOUNT OF SOLAR             
INSOLATION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MODIFY THIS AIRMASS              
THROUGH THE DAY.  DESPITE THIS...RECOVERY STILL LOOKS LIMITED...WITH            
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.                          
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING 120+ KT UPPER JET WILL STREAK            
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE INCREASING LARGE            
SCALE ACCENT AND PRE-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL            
BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY LAYER AND SATURATE THE                
COLUMN EARLY TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION...WITH AN ONSET BETWEEN 09-15Z...WITH THE              
GFS IN TYPICAL FASHION BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM.                      
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO                    
START...BUT QUICKLY WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING FROM                
SOUTH TO NORTH BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL              
JET /925 MB WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS/.  GIVEN THE DELAYED ONSET AND                  
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AND THEN QUICK CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...SOUTHERN               
AREAS INCLUDING METRO DETROIT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF              
MORE THAN AN INCH.  TOWARD THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-69                 
CORRIDOR NORTH...STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL OF 2-4 INCHES TUESDAY                  
MORNING GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING/HIGHER QPF AND A LONGER                   
DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  LIGHT RAIN                    
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE               
BACK END...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING LIFTS EAST               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW                 
BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL.  LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO               
VALLEY WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE                 
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE RESULTANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL                   
COMMENCE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS NOT SURPRISINGLY ARE STRUGGLING             
WITH THE DETAILS GIVEN THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS UPPER             
PATTERN.  THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A MORE                        
PROGRESSIVE/ WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW              
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.  MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND CANADIAN              
BOTH SHOW A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WITH THE SFC REFLECTION                
STILL IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC DOES SHOW A DEEPER SYSTEM AT THE                       
MOMENT...LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO A STRONGER/SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTION            
DESPITE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  ONGOING FORECAST LEANS IN THIS              
DIRECTION ALREADY...AND SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO PULL BACK FROM              
THIS THINKING JUST YET.                                                         
UNDER THIS SOLUTION...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ACCENT/MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD               
OVERRUNNING EVENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  LATEST SOUNDING DATA            
STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX WITH THERMAL                    
PROFILES/PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING SNOW/SLEET AT ONSET THURSDAY            
MORNING...WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE                 
NORTH.  PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE            
DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.  12Z GFS NOW                 
DEPICTS A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AS IT TRENDS FURTHER                 
SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND THERMAL GRADIENT AND MAINTAINS A                     
SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  ONLY CHANGE AT            
THIS POINT WILL BE TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF -FZRA INTO THE EVENING               
FOR THE M-59 CORRIDOR NORTH.  CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A              
MESSY SETUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE EVOLUTION AS THE             
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED IN THE COMING DAYS.                         
MARINE...                                                                       
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN            
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN NORTHEAST              
BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. GUSTS TO 20                     
KNOTS...OR SLIGHTLY MORE...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS            
OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE                
WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEARLY 5 FEET ALONG THE NEARSHORE            
WATERS OF LAKE HURON FORM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BY LATE                   
TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF HIGHER WAVES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER...AS WAVES            
QUICKLY DROP OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST.               
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT               
LAKES ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES               
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY                
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ON                        
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED                
WEATHER.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 4 AM         
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
701 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROUGHLY              
AROUND LAPEER COUNTY...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO            
CENTRAL LOWER MI. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH                
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE                
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES IS LEADING TO QUITE A BIT OF RETURNS ON                 
RADAR ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB. GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE                
REPORTS...SUSPECT THERE IS A LOT OF VIRGA WITH THESE RETURNS. THE               
LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF DTW DOES SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR                    
BELOW 5K FEET. THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT                  
SLIDING INTO THE DETROIT AREA BY 09Z. SUSPECT LOSS OF DAYTIME                   
HEATING WILL CAUSE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF RADAR                     
RETURNS. LATEST RADAR HOWEVER ARGUES FOR KEEPING A TEMPO GROUP FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FNT AND MBS TAF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT              
THIS TIME...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW AT DTW/DET APPEAR TOO LOW TO                   
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.                                                            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT            
AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF               
LAKE HURON MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MVFR LAKE STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO              
EARLY MON MORNING AT FNT AND DTW/DET. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE               
JUST A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MONITOR SATELLITE                
TRENDS.  NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MBS PREDOMINATELY VFR             
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                            
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN            
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS ALSO WORKING ITS WAY                   
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA RIGHT NOW...PER OBS/MSAS                    
ANALYSIS...AND THIS FEATURE IS RIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE                 
FRONT. PREFER THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE             
WAVE...AND ITS DEPICTION OF HOW THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INTERACT                
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MICHIGAN. MODELS ALL                 
INDICATE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FGEN OCCURRING THIS EVENING             
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE WAVE               
RIDES SOUTH OF THERE. UPWARD FORCING BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER              
AS YOU MOVE TO THE SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DEEP INSTABILITY              
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500MB...WITH MOISTURE OK BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE              
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 G/KG. FORECAST FOR AROUND              
AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND THE TRI-CITES AND THUMB STILL               
LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS            
(IF ANY) BY THE TIME YOU GET TOWARDS DETROIT. HAVE DECREASED POPS               
FOR THE SOUTH CWA AND DELAYED THEM SOMEWHAT TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS             
AND EXPECTED FORCING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY             
MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT AS MOISTURE BECOMES VERY SHALLOW              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER            
TEENS TO NEAR 20.                                                               
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD TO BEGIN MONDAY...WITH 850 MB                  
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW                 
NORMAL.  ASIDE FROM SOME MIDDAY DIURNAL CU...A GOOD AMOUNT OF SOLAR             
INSOLATION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MODIFY THIS AIRMASS              
THROUGH THE DAY.  DESPITE THIS...RECOVERY STILL LOOKS LIMITED...WITH            
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.                          
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING 120+ KT UPPER JET WILL STREAK            
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE INCREASING LARGE            
SCALE ACCENT AND PRE-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL            
BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY LAYER AND SATURATE THE                
COLUMN EARLY TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION...WITH AN ONSET BETWEEN 09-15Z...WITH THE              
GFS IN TYPICAL FASHION BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM.                      
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO                    
START...BUT QUICKLY WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING FROM                
SOUTH TO NORTH BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL              
JET /925 MB WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS/.  GIVEN THE DELAYED ONSET AND                  
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AND THEN QUICK CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...SOUTHERN               
AREAS INCLUDING METRO DETROIT MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF              
MORE THAN AN INCH.  TOWARD THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-69                 
CORRIDOR NORTH...STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL OF 2-4 INCHES TUESDAY                  
MORNING GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING/HIGHER QPF AND A LONGER                   
DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  LIGHT RAIN                    
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW ON THE               
BACK END...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING LIFTS EAST               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW                 
BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL.  LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO               
VALLEY WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE                 
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE RESULTANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL                   
COMMENCE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS NOT SURPRISINGLY ARE STRUGGLING             
WITH THE DETAILS GIVEN THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS UPPER             
PATTERN.  THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A MORE                        
PROGRESSIVE/ WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW              
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.  MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND CANADIAN              
BOTH SHOW A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WITH THE SFC REFLECTION                
STILL IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC DOES SHOW A DEEPER SYSTEM AT THE                       
MOMENT...LENDING SOME SUPPORT TO A STRONGER/SLOWER EVOLVING SOLUTION            
DESPITE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  ONGOING FORECAST LEANS IN THIS              
DIRECTION ALREADY...AND SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO PULL BACK FROM              
THIS THINKING JUST YET.                                                         
UNDER THIS SOLUTION...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ACCENT/MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD               
OVERRUNNING EVENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  LATEST SOUNDING DATA            
STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX WITH THERMAL                    
PROFILES/PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING SNOW/SLEET AT ONSET THURSDAY            
MORNING...WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE                 
NORTH.  PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE            
DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN.  12Z GFS NOW                 
DEPICTS A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AS IT TRENDS FURTHER                 
SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND THERMAL GRADIENT AND MAINTAINS A                     
SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  ONLY CHANGE AT            
THIS POINT WILL BE TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF -FZRA INTO THE EVENING               
FOR THE M-59 CORRIDOR NORTH.  CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A              
MESSY SETUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE EVOLUTION AS THE             
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED IN THE COMING DAYS.                         
MARINE...                                                                       
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWN THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN            
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN NORTHEAST              
BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. GUSTS TO 20                     
KNOTS...OR SLIGHTLY MORE...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS            
OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE                
WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEARLY 5 FEET ALONG THE NEARSHORE            
WATERS OF LAKE HURON FORM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BY LATE                   
TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF HIGHER WAVES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER...AS WAVES            
QUICKLY DROP OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST.               
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT               
LAKES ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES               
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY                
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON ON                        
TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED                
WEATHER.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 4 AM         
     TUESDAY TO 4 PM TUESDAY.                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HLO                                                                
LONG TERM....MR                                                                 
MARINE.......HLO                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
442 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                              
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RIDGING ACROSS LAKE                           
SUPERIOR...EXTENDING FROM THE MAIN SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.                 
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS MOVING SE ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND NVA MOVING OVER            
THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION /SFC DWPTS IN             
NW ONTARIO WELL BELOW ZERO/ SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE LAKE              
EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE                  
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY THIS EVENING              
COMBINED WITH LOW LAKE-AIR STABILITY /850MB TEMP -16C/...WILL                   
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS IN A SMALL AREA FROM SHOT POINT EAST              
TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE RUC SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS             
THE WINDS BACK AROUND. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD HOLD LESS             
THAN AN INCH.                                                                   
AS THE WINDS BACK AROUND TONIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE              
KEWEENAW PENINUSLA WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE             
FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE NORTH OF HOUGHTON...AND HAVE OPTED TO                
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH              
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY              
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY.                           
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD NIGHT ACROSS UPPER             
MICHIGAN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW COVER IN SOME                       
PLACES...AM THINKING THAT SOME INLAND AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP TO              
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TONIGHT. IF IT CAN CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECAST               
TEMPS COULD DROP MORE THAN THAT.                                                
MONDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY              
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. WITH THE W-SW FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF             
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HOUGHTON ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL            
/ONLY AROUND -9C/ AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONG.                 
NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY A SMALL POP THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION.            
WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN/ IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST              
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. MANY PLACES WILL BE                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY SO IT SHOULD BE PLEASANT ALTHOUGH A            
LITTLE CHILLY WITH HIGHS 30-35.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                                
FOCUS FOR MON NIGHT-TUE TURNS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF CLIPPER SHRTWV                
MOVING ESE FM SCNTRL CAN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF ASSOC SFC LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO                 
TRACK ACROSS NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE MORNING AND THEN MOVES             
NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING FAIRLY              
IMPRESSIVE UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 120+ KT H3 JET             
MAX ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE DPVA AND VIGOROUS 850-500 MB Q-VECT CONV.             
SHARP ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 285-290K SFCS NOTED MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SHORTWAVE...TRANSITIONING TO DESCENT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
OVER WRN HALF COUNTIES BY 12Z TUE. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK OF THE LOW            
FAVORS THE NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES FOR THE HEAVIER/MORE SUSTAINED               
PCPN AND QPF FIELDS GENERALLY BARE THIS OUT. THE ONE THING THAT MAY             
LIMIT PCPN/SNOW AMOUNTS IS FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE/SFC               
LOW. STILL WITHMIXING RATIOS OF 3G/KG ADVECTING OVER THE AREA AND               
6HR OF MORE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THE FAR ERN                   
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY PUSH ADVISORY TOTALS WITH 3 INCHES OF MORE OF            
SNOW POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE MORNING ALONG            
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WRAPAROUND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF THE               
LOW. WOULD EXPECT THE REST OF THE CWA THE GENERALLY FALL IN THE 2-4"            
RANGE FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM.                                       
EXPECT PCPN TO GENERALLY DIMINISH BY TUE AFTN BEFORE ANOTHER                    
SHORTWAVE RETURNS TUE EVENING AND BRINGS A REINFORCING COLD SHOT AND            
CHC OF ENHANCEMENT TO LES. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PCPN WL FALL AS SN...             
BUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR SCNTRL AREAS IN DOWNSLOPING NW              
FLOW LLVLS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW WITH SOME RAIN. ANOTHER                  
CONCERN FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING WL BE WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING             
AREAS OVER THE SRN TIER AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GFS FCST               
SDNGS FOR MNM AND ESC SHOWS 35-40 KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR AT              
BOTH MNM AND ESC. WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW COULD REACH 30 KT BY TUE              
EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                                  
IN THE WAKE OF TUE CLIPPER...EXPECT LES TO BE ONGOING TUE NGT INTO              
WED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C MOVING OVER THE LAKE. HI PRES              
RDG AXIS WILL THEN MOVES OVHD WED NIGHT AND SHUT OFF THE LES.                   
STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE                
PLAINS BY THU/FRI. HOWEVER...NCEP FAVORED BLEND OF 00Z GFS SOLN AND             
ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH NOW TAKES LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES               
AND OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT AND FRI. ECMWF HAS BEEN EVEN FARTHER E                
WITH THIS SYSTEM THE LAST FEW RUNS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPR MI IS               
THAT HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. BEST              
CHCS FOR PCPN THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WILL BE SCNTRL AND EAST WHERE             
I HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHC POPS. ALSO WITH MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK...IT              
LOOKS LIKE PCPN TYPE WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT MIX              
WITH LIQUID/FREEZING PCPN FROM PREV FCST. BIG DIFFERENCE IN 850 MB              
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ECMWF MUCH                 
WARMER THAN MORE AMPLIFIED SOLN OF GFS WHICH MORE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD            
BEHIND THE LOW. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD GFS TEMPS AND KEPT LOW CHC             
POPS FOR LES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IN AREAS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS ARE STARTING TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH. EXPECT THE WINDS TO RAPIDLY SHIFT TO            
THE NW BY EVENING THEN SW BY MON MORNING. THIS RAPID SHIFTING OF                
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA                
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS                  
AFTERNOON AT SAW. WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH             
20Z AT KSAW...BUT THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY EVENING.            
AT KCMX...IT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE                
SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING SNOW                         
SHOWER...THEN AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO               
THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM ISSUANCE)...                                                  
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS AND WAVES              
SHOULD RELAX QUITE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM                
APPROACHES ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS              
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT MON AFTN AND TO GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
TUE. BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND THE NEARSHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE CLIPPER PASSES              
BY TUE INTO TUE GALES OR NEAR GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE                   
EVENING. W-NW WINDS NEAR 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING                
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MRD                                                       
LONG TERM...VOSS                                                                
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
127 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
UPDATE AVIATION SECTION.                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A FAIRLY STRONG UPSLOPE SNOWBAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL             
UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY                   
SHALLOW MOISTURE...THE PERSISTENT NE/UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW                
COMBINED WITH SOME SEEDING FROM THE MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD             
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL FROM MARQUETTE              
THROUGH NEGAUNEE AND ISHPEMING. OVERALL...THE TREND FOR THE SNOW                
SHOULD BE TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AFTER              
THE HIGHER CLOUD MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE            
AREA... AND UPSLOPE FLOW DECREASES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BACKS TO               
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE                
SEVERAL MORE HOURS /THROUGH NOON/ THAT THE SNOW WILL BE ENHANCED AT             
TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI. WILL THEREFORE UPDATE THE FORECAST TO            
GO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARQUETTE COUNTY. DESPITE THE                  
MODERATE SNOW AT CMX...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES SINCE CMX HAS                 
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AND NE FLOW USUALLY DOES NOT CAUSE                    
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS THERE.                                                     
WILL ALSO UPDATE TO GO WITH STEADY TEMPS WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND             
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY.                                                         
GRIDS ALREADY ISSUED...ZFP OUT BY 945 AM.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LES            
TODAY.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE                
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE STRETCHES OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE                 
SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ARE OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS               
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER CENTRAL             
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH FRONTS EXTENDING TO EAST THROUGH THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES AND WESTWARD THROUGH IOWA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LARGE             
HIGH BLANKETS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE             
HIGH IS DRAWING COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THERMAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO IS                  
LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO -9C. ANOTHER              
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS                
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                              
THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER            
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY LATE               
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT INTO THE              
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO            
WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN                  
MANITOBA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE INTO            
THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE MANITOBA RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE            
WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COLD FRONT WILL            
RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. A POOL OF                
COLD AIR (-30C AT 850MB) WILL SETTLE OVER JAMES BAY. THE LOWEST                 
INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 900MB. THE ASSOCIATED LAKE-900MB DELTA-T`S             
WILL INCREASE TO 18C. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUING LES OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA AND MUCH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DROP             
OFF THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING LES OVER THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST LES OVER THE EASTERN             
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED OVER THE WEST.               
THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...TAKING AIM             
AT THE U.P. TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST. THE DELTA-T`S WILL              
REMAIN AROUND 15C. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR                     
LES...HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PLAN TO TAPER THE LES            
OFF. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR WELL BELOW NORMAL IN                  
PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                    
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST HALF CONUS ON MONDAY. A             
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP INTO WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A LOW              
CENTRAL SWEEPS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST NORTH             
DAKOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG              
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL SOME DRIER AIR INTO               
THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOME                
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                             
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP                
TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW                     
WILL SWEEP INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA DRAGGING A COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                   
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT             
PRODUCING SOME SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICA TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE                
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST             
OF UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE WINDS WILL BACK                
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA                  
CAUSING 850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12C. THIS IS ENOUGH               
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THUS PLANNING TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER                
POPS OVER THE NORTH HALF.                                                       
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE LOW            
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN                  
QUEBEC...A RIDGE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND SET UP A            
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA CREATING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 19C. THIS             
APPEARS TO BE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR LES DEVELOP AND FAVOR HEAVIEST               
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGH HILLS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THE                 
RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS                  
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE...HOWEVER...WOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE               
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOW A THERMAL POOL TO SETTLE OVER EAST            
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND             
19C. THESE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES. DRY STABLE              
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WINDS ARE STARTING TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH. EXPECT THE WINDS TO RAPIDLY SHIFT TO            
THE NW BY EVENING THEN SW BY MON MORNING. THIS RAPID SHIFTING OF                
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA                
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS                  
AFTERNOON AT SAW. WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH             
20Z AT KSAW...BUT THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY EVENING.            
AT KCMX...IT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE                
SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING SNOW                         
SHOWER...THEN AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO               
THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS S               
TODAY. SO...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. EXPECT NRLY                
WINDS OF 20-30KT...MAINLY OVER THE W 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.                 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS TO THE MID                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN                  
CANADA MON MORNING...SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 KT. AS             
THE LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME                
SRLY. TYPICALLY...SRLY WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...             
AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME              
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT             
OVER ERN SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GALES COULD OCCUR. ONLY              
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GALE GUSTS WITH THIS FCST                     
ISSUANCE. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE UPPER LAKES LATE TUE...EXPECT A             
PERIOD OF N TO NW GALES OVER THE E 1/2 TO 2/3RDS TUE NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11AM EDT THIS                
                MORNING FOR LSZ263>267.                                         
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MRD                                                                    
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
927 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A FAIRLY STRONG UPSLOPE SNOWBAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL             
UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY                   
SHALLOW MOISTURE...THE PERSISTENT NE/UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW                
COMBINED WITH SOME SEEDING FROM THE MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD             
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL FROM MARQUETTE              
THROUGH NEGAUNEE AND ISHPEMING. OVERALL...THE TREND FOR THE SNOW                
SHOULD BE TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AFTER              
THE HIGHER CLOUD MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE            
AREA... AND UPSLOPE FLOW DECREASES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BACKS TO               
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE                
SEVERAL MORE HOURS /THROUGH NOON/ THAT THE SNOW WILL BE ENHANCED AT             
TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI. WILL THEREFORE UPDATE THE FORECAST TO            
GO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARQUETTE COUNTY. DESPITE THE                  
MODERATE SNOW AT CMX...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES SINCE CMX HAS                 
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AND NE FLOW USUALLY DOES NOT CAUSE                    
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS THERE.                                                     
WILL ALSO UPDATE TO GO WITH STEADY TEMPS WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND             
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY.                                                         
GRIDS ALREADY ISSUED...ZFP OUT BY 945 AM.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LES            
TODAY.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE                
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE STRETCHES OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE                 
SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ARE OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS               
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER CENTRAL             
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH FRONTS EXTENDING TO EAST THROUGH THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES AND WESTWARD THROUGH IOWA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LARGE             
HIGH BLANKETS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE             
HIGH IS DRAWING COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THERMAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO IS                  
LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO -9C. ANOTHER              
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS                
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                              
THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER            
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY LATE               
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT INTO THE              
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO            
WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN                  
MANITOBA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE INTO            
THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE MANITOBA RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE            
WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COLD FRONT WILL            
RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. A POOL OF                
COLD AIR (-30C AT 850MB) WILL SETTLE OVER JAMES BAY. THE LOWEST                 
INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 900MB. THE ASSOCIATED LAKE-900MB DELTA-T`S             
WILL INCREASE TO 18C. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUING LES OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA AND MUCH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DROP             
OFF THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING LES OVER THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST LES OVER THE EASTERN             
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED OVER THE WEST.               
THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...TAKING AIM             
AT THE U.P. TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST. THE DELTA-T`S WILL              
REMAIN AROUND 15C. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR                     
LES...HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PLAN TO TAPER THE LES            
OFF. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR WELL BELOW NORMAL IN                  
PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                    
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST HALF CONUS ON MONDAY. A             
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP INTO WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A LOW              
CENTRAL SWEEPS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST NORTH             
DAKOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG              
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL SOME DRIER AIR INTO               
THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOME                
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                             
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP                
TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW                     
WILL SWEEP INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA DRAGGING A COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                   
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT             
PRODUCING SOME SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICA TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE                
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST             
OF UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE WINDS WILL BACK                
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA                  
CAUSING 850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12C. THIS IS ENOUGH               
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THUS PLANNING TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER                
POPS OVER THE NORTH HALF.                                                       
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE LOW            
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN                  
QUEBEC...A RIDGE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND SET UP A            
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA CREATING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 19C. THIS             
APPEARS TO BE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR LES DEVELOP AND FAVOR HEAVIEST               
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGH HILLS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THE                 
RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS                  
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE...HOWEVER...WOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE               
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOW A THERMAL POOL TO SETTLE OVER EAST            
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND             
19C. THESE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES. DRY STABLE              
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED KCMX/KSAW                   
OVERNIGHT...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED. NARROW BAND OF                    
MOISTURE THAT IS ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE EXITING FROM N TO S              
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE...                   
BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX. AT KCMX...MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR VIS THRU              
ABOUT 14Z AND THEN OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS UNTIL 16Z. AFTER                         
THAT...FLURRIES SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO              
DOMINATE THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A             
TIME LATE THIS AFTN.                                                            
AT KSAW...NNE WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. SHOULD            
SEE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS THRU 16Z. MVFR CIGS AND                      
OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO MID AFTN OR SO. AS WINDS            
BACK NW LATE...-SHSN WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT. VFR                  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS S               
TODAY. SO...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. EXPECT NRLY                
WINDS OF 20-30KT...MAINLY OVER THE W 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.                 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS TO THE MID                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN                  
CANADA MON MORNING...SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 KT. AS             
THE LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME                
SRLY. TYPICALLY...SRLY WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...             
AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME              
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT             
OVER ERN SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GALES COULD OCCUR. ONLY              
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GALE GUSTS WITH THIS FCST                     
ISSUANCE. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE UPPER LAKES LATE TUE...EXPECT A             
PERIOD OF N TO NW GALES OVER THE E 1/2 TO 2/3RDS TUE NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11AM EDT THIS                
                MORNING FOR LSZ263>267.                                         
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MRD                                                                    
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LES            
TODAY.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE                
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE STRETCHES OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE                 
SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ARE OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS               
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER CENTRAL             
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH FRONTS EXTENDING TO EAST THROUGH THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES AND WESTWARD THROUGH IOWA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LARGE             
HIGH BLANKETS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE             
HIGH IS DRAWING COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THERMAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO IS                  
LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO -9C. ANOTHER              
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS                
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                              
THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER            
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY LATE               
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT INTO THE              
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO            
WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN                  
MANITOBA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE INTO            
THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE MANITOBA RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE            
WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COLD FRONT WILL            
RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. A POOL OF                
COLD AIR (-30C AT 850MB) WILL SETTLE OVER JAMES BAY. THE LOWEST                 
INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 900MB. THE ASSOCIATED LAKE-900MB DELTA-T`S             
WILL INCREASE TO 18C. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUING LES OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA AND MUCH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DROP             
OFF THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING LES OVER THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST LES OVER THE EASTERN             
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED OVER THE WEST.               
THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...TAKING AIM             
AT THE U.P. TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST. THE DELTA-T`S WILL              
REMAIN AROUND 15C. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR                     
LES...HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PLAN TO TAPER THE LES            
OFF. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR WELL BELOW NORMAL IN                  
PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                    
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST HALF CONUS ON MONDAY. A             
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP INTO WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A LOW              
CENTRAL SWEEPS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST NORTH             
DAKOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG              
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL SOME DRIER AIR INTO               
THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOME                
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                             
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP                
TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW                     
WILL SWEEP INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA DRAGGING A COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                   
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT             
PRODUCING SOME SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICA TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE                
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST             
OF UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE WINDS WILL BACK                
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA                  
CAUSING 850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12C. THIS IS ENOUGH               
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THUS PLANNING TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER                
POPS OVER THE NORTH HALF.                                                       
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE LOW            
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN                  
QUEBEC...A RIDGE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND SET UP A            
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA CREATING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 19C. THIS             
APPEARS TO BE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR LES DEVELOP AND FAVOR HEAVIEST               
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGH HILLS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THE                 
RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS                  
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE...HOWEVER...WOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE               
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOW A THERMAL POOL TO SETTLE OVER EAST            
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND             
19C. THESE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES. DRY STABLE              
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED KCMX/KSAW                   
OVERNIGHT...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED. NARROW BAND OF                    
MOISTURE THAT IS ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE EXITING FROM N TO S              
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE...                   
BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX. AT KCMX...MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR VIS THRU              
ABOUT 14Z AND THEN OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS UNTIL 16Z. AFTER                         
THAT...FLURRIES SHOULD NOT REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO              
DOMINATE THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A             
TIME LATE THIS AFTN.                                                            
AT KSAW...NNE WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. SHOULD            
SEE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS THRU 16Z. MVFR CIGS AND                      
OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO MID AFTN OR SO. AS WINDS            
BACK NW LATE...-SHSN WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT. VFR                  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS S               
TODAY. SO...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. EXPECT NRLY                
WINDS OF 20-30KT...MAINLY OVER THE W 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.                 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS TO THE MID                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN                  
CANADA MON MORNING...SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 KT. AS             
THE LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME                
SRLY. TYPICALLY...SRLY WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...             
AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME              
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT             
OVER ERN SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GALES COULD OCCUR. ONLY              
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GALE GUSTS WITH THIS FCST                     
ISSUANCE. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE UPPER LAKES LATE TUE...EXPECT A             
PERIOD OF N TO NW GALES OVER THE E 1/2 TO 2/3RDS TUE NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11AM EDT THIS                
                MORNING FOR LSZ263>267.                                         
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
422 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LES            
TODAY.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE                
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE STRETCHES OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE                 
SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ARE OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS               
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER CENTRAL             
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH FRONTS EXTENDING TO EAST THROUGH THE LOWER                 
GREAT LAKES AND WESTWARD THROUGH IOWA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LARGE             
HIGH BLANKETS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE             
HIGH IS DRAWING COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THERMAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO IS                  
LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO -9C. ANOTHER              
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS                
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE            
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                                              
THE CLOSED LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER            
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY LATE               
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT INTO THE              
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO            
WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHILE NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN                  
MANITOBA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE INTO            
THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE MANITOBA RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE            
WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COLD FRONT WILL            
RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. A POOL OF                
COLD AIR (-30C AT 850MB) WILL SETTLE OVER JAMES BAY. THE LOWEST                 
INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 900MB. THE ASSOCIATED LAKE-900MB DELTA-T`S             
WILL INCREASE TO 18C. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUING LES OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA AND MUCH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DROP             
OFF THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING LES OVER THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST              
AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST LES OVER THE EASTERN             
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED OVER THE WEST.               
THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...TAKING AIM             
AT THE U.P. TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER                  
MICHIGAN AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHWEST. THE DELTA-T`S WILL              
REMAIN AROUND 15C. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR                     
LES...HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PLAN TO TAPER THE LES            
OFF. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR WELL BELOW NORMAL IN                  
PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                    
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST HALF CONUS ON MONDAY. A             
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP INTO WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A LOW              
CENTRAL SWEEPS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST NORTH             
DAKOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG              
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL SOME DRIER AIR INTO               
THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOME                
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                             
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP                
TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW                     
WILL SWEEP INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA DRAGGING A COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                   
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED                
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT             
PRODUCING SOME SNOWS OVER THE AREA.                                             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICA TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE                
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST             
OF UPPER MICHIGAN INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE WINDS WILL BACK                
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA                  
CAUSING 850MB DELTA-T`S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12C. THIS IS ENOUGH               
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THUS PLANNING TO KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER                
POPS OVER THE NORTH HALF.                                                       
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE LOW            
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN                  
QUEBEC...A RIDGE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND SET UP A            
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA CREATING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 19C. THIS             
APPEARS TO BE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR LES DEVELOP AND FAVOR HEAVIEST               
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE HIGH HILLS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. THE                 
RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS                  
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE...HOWEVER...WOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE               
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOW A THERMAL POOL TO SETTLE OVER EAST            
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND             
19C. THESE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MORE LES. DRY STABLE              
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A WEAK TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MI            
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL BRING A                  
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS COLDER AIR               
ARRIVES ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY                  
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT             
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW BANDS. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC            
FLOW SUN MORNING SHOULD DECREASE INTENSITY OF REMAINING SNOW BANDS.             
LOOK FOR VBSYS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN LINGERING FLURRIES BY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS S               
TODAY. SO...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. EXPECT NRLY                
WINDS OF 20-30KT...MAINLY OVER THE W 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE.                 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS TO THE MID                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN                  
CANADA MON MORNING...SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 KT. AS             
THE LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME                
SRLY. TYPICALLY...SRLY WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...             
AND THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME              
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30KT             
OVER ERN SUPERIOR. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GALES COULD OCCUR. ONLY              
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GALE GUSTS WITH THIS FCST                     
ISSUANCE. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE UPPER LAKES LATE TUE...EXPECT A             
PERIOD OF N TO NW GALES OVER THE E 1/2 TO 2/3RDS TUE NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11AM EDT THIS                
                MORNING FOR LSZ263>267.                                         
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
556 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED POPS IN SW CORNER OF FA THIS MORNING...FROM CASS                      
LAKE...TO BRAINERD AND HINCKLEY WHERE -SN IS FALLING AND VSBYS OF               
<2SM HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                    
THE MID LVL VORT AND ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF FORCING THAT IS                     
PRODUCING THE SN OVER CENTRAL MN...WILL SLOWING PUSH OFF TO THE                 
S THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN PREV                  
THOUGHT. THE 06Z NAM...LATEST RUC...AND SHREF RUNS ARE IN                       
AGREEMENT THAT THE -SN REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THIS REGION                      
THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND EXITING TO THE SOUTH AFT 18Z.              
THE RUC AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST THAT OMEGA VALUES INCREASE ALONG THIS              
CORRIDOR BTW 10-15Z...RESULTING IN THE -SHSN INTENSIFYING.                      
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE GREATER                         
REFLECTIVITIES OFF TO THE SOUTH...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS                   
SCENARIO ATTM. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.                            
KEPT SN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL                      
INCH...WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE...TRACE TO                 
HALF INCH...OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTRN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A WV SAT IMAGE LOOP SHOWS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES IN THE NW FLOW SLIDING           
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. RADAR ECHOES OF                   
25-30 DBZ ARE SEEN OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO THE THE                
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND INTO THE ROCHESTER AREAS OF SE MN. SFC               
STATIONS AND WEB CAMS IN NE MN CONTINUE TO REPORTING LIGHT TO                   
MODERATE SN SHOWERS /1-3 SM VSBY GENERALLY/ IN THE BRD LAKES...TO               
MILLE LACS...AND HINCKLEY REGION OF THE SWRN DLH CWA.                           
PREV FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS TODAY.              
THE -SN WILL PERSIST IN THE SW AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE                 
VORT MAX SHIFT S OVER SRN MN. ANOTHER VORT MAX...CURRENTLY                      
RESIDING IN SRN CANADA...WILL THEN TRACK OVER THE INTL                          
BORDER...SPREADING -SN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES                
REGION THROUGH THE AFTRN AND EVENING HRS. DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN                 
PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FA...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY                    
FLURRIES OR AN ISOLD -SHSN THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD              
AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTRN/EVENING. LIMITING FACTOR                 
TO SN AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF                 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                             
FOCUS TURNS TO STRONG CAA THAT SETS UP THIS AFTRN AS A CANADIAN                 
AIR MASS BRINGS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW INCHES OF LES                    
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...PERSISTING                
INTO SUN. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WORDING ALONG THE SNOW BELT              
REGION OF THE SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AS WELL AS BUFR                
SDNGS AGREE THAT LAPSE RATES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LES SHOWERS                   
/12-16 C BELOW ZERO AT 850 MB/...WITH A 20-25 KT 925 MB SRLY                    
TRAJECTORY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFT 03Z. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT                   
DURING THIS TIME...A ELONGATED WEAK VORT TRACKS S OVER THE WRN                  
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT.                  
THIS VORT WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS FOR SCT -SN FOR THE REMAINDER                
OF THE FA AS WELL. INCREASED SN AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE TO                
THE 2-4 IN RANGE...WITH AROUND 1 INLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS               
IN TIMING TO OVERCOME THE DRY NEAR-SFC LAYER IN ORDER TO SATURATE               
THE COLUMN...AS WELL AS THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING DRY AIR                    
BEHIND THE WAVE TO SHUT THINGS OFF LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN                     
MORNING.                                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE            
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KBRD...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL             
IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST AND            
SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.                     
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z-18Z. A WEAK         
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS...AND THE RISK               
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS...GENERALLY FROM 23Z             
TO 06Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  34  11  28  13 /  30  20  20  10                                           
INL  35   8  25   8 /  40  20  20  10                                           
BRD  34  19  30  15 /  70  20  20  10                                           
HYR  35  15  27  13 /  20  30  20  10                                           
ASX  34  15  23  11 /  20  60  40  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING/GSF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1026 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS BRINGING            
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE CWFA THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS SEEN ON               
SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD                   
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TONIGHT. WITH CAA OVER           
THE AREA TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER TODAY THAN WE HAVE               
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR           
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. OVERALL THE                   
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR             
ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS            
THIS EASTER MORNING SHOWS TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS               
VALLEY IN CAA AHEAD OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CORE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE           
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 4-5MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO YIELD               
13-17KTS OF NLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20KTS AT TIMES. MUCH             
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE INVADING AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF            
INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... WLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING               
ENOUGH UPGLIDE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE CIRRUS SHIELD WHICH               
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE THIN SIDE BY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE IN                    
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER(1032MB) WILL DROP INTO NRN TX            
TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON(1030MB).                                                              
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING A                  
COMPLETE CALMING AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NW THROUGH TONIGHT.               
CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP IN AIDING A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE            
TONIGHT IN SHELTERED AREAS WHERE PATCHY FROST WILL BE LIKELY. EVEN              
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NERN MS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY                   
MONDAY...BELIEVE A BETTER RISK FOR FREEZING COULD DEVELOP FOR MONDAY            
NIGHT AS A QUICKER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP SHOULD BE IN PLACE.                
MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR             
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS.                                            
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL MIX IN SOME EVEN DRIER AIR WITH               
AFTERNOON RH LEVELS OF 20-25% OR POSSIBLY LOWER. /40/                           
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE            
IS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL NOT             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAY`S EUROPEAN. USED A BLEND.           
RAISED GUIDANCE HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.              
925 TEMPS REMAIN WARM...STILL LOOKING FOR NEAR 80 TEMPS FOR MUCH OF             
THE EXTENDED. LOWS WERE OK.                                                     
RIGHT NOW MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE                    
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE MID SOUTH...MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH                 
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST              
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST AROUND THURSDAY.               
THE STALLED BOUNDARY GET PUSHED NORTH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT                  
DEVELOPS FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW SLOWLY             
DRIFTS NORTHEAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY                
INTO SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 800-700MB               
RANGE. THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE ACROSS THE CWA...APPROACHING 1500J AS            
THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL JET WAS AROUND                            
40KTS...GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE             
HWO CLEAR AND MAINTAIN THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HIGH                    
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM CANADA AROUND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER                 
BRIEF BOUT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY              
NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR                
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.                                  
WILL NOTE THAT THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FOR              
THE WEEKEND. THE MID WEEK SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE STATIONARY             
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW                
TRACKING NORTHEAST. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ZONAL. THE           
DIFFERENCE COME IN...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CWA                    
SATURDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST           
BY MONDAY...WITH IT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW                
DEVELOPS AT THE END OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING            
AROUND TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA REMAINS WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                
WITH THE GFS FOR THE MOST PART AND KEPT THINGS DRY LATE SATURDAY AND            
SUNDAY.                                                                         
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. INCREASED POPS AND                      
ADJUSTED THE TIMING ON THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. RAISED           
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24              
HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE AREA THAT              
SHOULD CONTINUE BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL           
BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. OVERALL NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR            
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       63  36  61  36 /   1   0   1   0                                  
MERIDIAN      63  35  59  31 /   1   0   1   0                                  
VICKSBURG     65  37  61  37 /   3   0   1   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   66  37  63  31 /   7   0   2   0                                  
NATCHEZ       64  39  63  37 /   3   0   1   0                                  
GREENVILLE    60  36  60  39 /   1   0   1   0                                  
GREENWOOD     59  35  59  37 /   1   0   1   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
450 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS THIS                
EASTER MORNING SHOWS TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY             
IN CAA AHEAD OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CORE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE           
CENTRAL ROCKIES. 4-5MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO YIELD 13-17KTS             
OF NLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20KTS AT TIMES. MUCH DRIER AIR            
WILL CONTINUE INVADING AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE             
20S THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... WLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ENOUGH                 
UPGLIDE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE CIRRUS SHIELD WHICH SHOULD               
REMAIN ON THE THIN SIDE BY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT            
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER(1032MB) WILL DROP INTO NRN TX TONIGHT BEFORE            
SLIDING EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON(1030MB).                 
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING A                  
COMPLETE CALMING AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NW THROUGH TONIGHT.               
CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP IN AIDING A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE            
TONIGHT IN SHELTERED AREAS WHERE PATCHY FROST WILL BE LIKELY. EVEN              
THOUGH PORTIONS OF NERN MS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING EARLY                   
MONDAY...BELIEVE A BETTER RISK FOR FREEZING COULD DEVELOP FOR MONDAY            
NIGHT AS A QUICKER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP SHOULD BE IN PLACE.                
MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR             
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS.                                            
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL MIX IN SOME EVEN DRIER AIR WITH               
AFTERNOON RH LEVELS OF 20-25% OR POSSIBLY LOWER. /40/                           
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE            
IS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL NOT             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAY`S EUROPEAN. USED A BLEND.           
RAISED GUIDANCE HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.              
925 TEMPS REMAIN WARM...STILL LOOKING FOR NEAR 80 TEMPS FOR MUCH OF             
THE EXTENDED. LOWS WERE OK.                                                     
RIGHT NOW MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE                    
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE MID SOUTH...MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH                 
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST              
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST AROUND THURSDAY.               
THE STALLED BOUNDARY GET PUSHED NORTH AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT                  
DEVELOPS FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW SLOWLY             
DRIFTS NORTHEAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY                
INTO SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE 800-700MB               
RANGE. THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE ACROSS THE CWA...APPROACHING 1500J AS            
THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL JET WAS AROUND                            
40KTS...GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE             
HWO CLEAR AND MAINTAIN THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HIGH                    
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM CANADA AROUND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER                 
BRIEF BOUT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY              
NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR                
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.                                  
WILL NOTE THAT THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FOR              
THE WEEKEND. THE MID WEEK SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE STATIONARY             
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW                
TRACKING NORTHEAST. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND ZONAL. THE           
DIFFERENCE COME IN...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CWA                    
SATURDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST           
BY MONDAY...WITH IT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER LOW                
DEVELOPS AT THE END OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING            
AROUND TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE CWA REMAINS WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                
WITH THE GFS FOR THE MOST PART AND KEPT THINGS DRY LATE SATURDAY AND            
SUNDAY.                                                                         
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. INCREASED POPS AND                      
ADJUSTED THE TIMING ON THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. RAISED           
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH THE             
FOCUS REMAINING ON THE NLY WINDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 14-00Z TODAY.                
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST(18-22KTS AT TIMES)WITH                 
LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN TO 5-8KTS TONIGHT.             
/40/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       63  36  61  36 /   1   0   1   0                                  
MERIDIAN      63  35  59  31 /   1   0   1   0                                  
VICKSBURG     65  37  61  37 /   3   0   1   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   66  37  63  31 /   7   0   2   0                                  
NATCHEZ       64  39  63  37 /   3   0   1   0                                  
GREENVILLE    60  36  60  39 /   1   0   1   0                                  
GREENWOOD     59  35  59  37 /   1   0   1   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40/7                                                                            
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1027 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. VISIBLE               
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING TO BREAK UP ACROSS NORTHEAST              
NEW MEXICO...BUT SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING...SO WILL                 
DECREASE POPS BUT LEAVE MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES                  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT                 
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                                            
34                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008...                                
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE E PLAINS WITH               
THE TIMING OF PRECIP DEPARTURE AND TYPE. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE               
VALLEY. CANYON WINDS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT GENERALLY              
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. NIGHTTIME VIS SATELLITE IMAGE             
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. RUC13 GUIDANCE               
SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE CORRESPONDS               
WELL WITH BANDED PRECIP BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 00Z GFS               
HANDLING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS VERY WELL ACROSS THE I40 CORRIDOR              
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KROW THROUGH 12Z. 00Z NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT KTCC              
SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS MORNING AS              
WET BULB ZERO LOWERS TO SURFACE. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ISENTROPIC              
LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL OVER               
QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES THRU SUNRISE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE            
FAR SE TO REFLECT PRECIP DEVELOPING SE THRU NOON WITH SUPPORT FROM              
STRONG AGREEMENT WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN               
THIS AREA.                                                                      
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP WILL END AFTER NOON OVER THE SE SO LEFT ISOLD             
TO CHC POPS THRU 00Z. DRY WNW FLOW RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE CWA SUN                
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TEMPS...WINDS AND                   
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.              
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT              
DISTURBANCE WILL RACE EAST ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                  
FRIDAY WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN                  
MTNS. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTH                   
ACROSS THE E PLAINS BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE WITH MOSTLY A WIND                 
SHIFT AND INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES.                                               
GUYER                                                                           
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z              
TO 18Z SUNDAY WITH IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES              
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN. CONDITIONS                 
IMPROVE AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL              
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 05                                  
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
258 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE E PLAINS WITH               
THE TIMING OF PRECIP DEPARTURE AND TYPE. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE               
VALLEY. CANYON WINDS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT GENERALLY              
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. NIGHTTIME VIS SATELLITE IMAGE             
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. RUC13 GUIDANCE               
SHOWS MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE CORRESPONDS               
WELL WITH BANDED PRECIP BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 00Z GFS               
HANDLING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS VERY WELL ACROSS THE I40 CORRIDOR              
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KROW THROUGH 12Z. 00Z NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT KTCC              
SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS MORNING AS              
WET BULB ZERO LOWERS TO SURFACE. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH ISENTROPIC              
LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL OVER               
QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES THRU SUNRISE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE            
FAR SE TO REFLECT PRECIP DEVELOPING SE THRU NOON WITH SUPPORT FROM              
STRONG AGREEMENT WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN               
THIS AREA.                                                                      
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP WILL END AFTER NOON OVER THE SE SO LEFT ISOLD             
TO CHC POPS THRU 00Z. DRY WNW FLOW RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE CWA SUN                
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TEMPS...WINDS AND                   
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.              
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT              
DISTURBANCE WILL RACE EAST ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO                  
FRIDAY WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN                  
MTNS. MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTH                   
ACROSS THE E PLAINS BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE WITH MOSTLY A WIND                 
SHIFT AND INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES.                                               
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z              
TO 18Z SUNDAY WITH IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES              
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN. CONDITIONS                 
IMPROVE AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL              
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 05                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  61  26  68  30 /   0   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  61  17  68  21 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  63  18  69  23 /   0   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  72  32  75  34 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  52  17  57  21 /   0   0   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  43  15  52  21 /  30   0   0   0              
TAOS............................  51  19  64  21 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  53  27  65  30 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  28  67  32 /   0   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  58  25  70  29 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  37  70  42 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  33  69  40 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  33  73  36 /   0   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  64  34  73  35 /   0   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  25  61  31 /  10   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  23  68  29 /  20   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  31  68  38 /  10   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  51  26  62  37 /  20   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  47  22  65  25 /  30   0   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  27  67  33 /  30   0   0   0              
ROY.............................  45  30  69  35 /  30   0   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  47  33  71  38 /  20   0   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  54  31  74  39 /  40   0   0   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  35  76  43 /  50   0   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  33  75  40 /  50   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  45  33  72  40 /  60   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  45  32  72  39 /  70   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  52  37  75  44 /  40   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/05                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
120 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND               
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA               
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF                
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND JUST OFFSHORE            
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...SMALL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS 10K-12K FT EXTENDING            
NE-SW ACROSS EASTERN NC AT THE MOMENT...IS HELPING TO DELINEATE THE             
WHEREABOUTS OF THE COLD FRONT IF 1 JUST HAD SAT IMAGERY TO WORK                 
WITH. BETWEEN 04Z-06Z...LATEST RUC AND NAM TAKE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH            
AND EAST OF THE ILM CWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IMMEDIATELY             
AFTER CFP AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS THICKNESSES...850MB TEMP...AND ETC.            
SHULD SEE NW-N WINDS 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT OVER LAND WITH SOME GUSTS             
UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE PEAK OF THE CAA LATER TONIGHT INTO                
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...H5 TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP OVER EASTERN CONUS                
AS AIDED BY A VIGOROUS AND SHARP SHORT WAVE. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE                
TO DEEPEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL FORM WELL EAST OF CAPE                
HATTERAS...GREATLY ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS              
WILL KNOCK TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WELL BELOW CLIMO. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE                 
WARRANTED AS WE GET WITHIN THE REQUIRED 24 TO 48 HOUR WINDOW FOR                
THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ALL VERY CLOSE WITH THIS                   
SCENARIO. SHORT WAVE MAY ALSO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS MONDAY BUT                  
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW                     
HUNDREDTHS AN INCH IN ANY LOCATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE                 
NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM A                         
WESTERLY/ZONAL REGIME TO A MODEST RIDGE BY SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL               
START...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE AREA                         
TUESDAY...A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS THIS SAME HIGH                 
SLIPS OFF THE COAST AND A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN                       
DEVELOPS.                                                                       
CONTINUED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS MEDIUM RANGE                   
MODELS ARE VOID OF THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT WAS PRESENT DURING                      
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE TRANSITION OF                   
TEMPERATURES FROM UNSEASONABLY COOL TO UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS               
WILL BE THE STORY. OVERALL...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR               
TWO ACROSS THE BOARD TO MATCH GUIDANCE AND HPC THINKING. LOOKING                
FOR MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE WARMEST                
READINGS FRIDAY COINCIDING WITH THE WARMEST 850MB TEMPERATURES                  
NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KILM AND              
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.                
BESIDES SOME CI SKIRTING THE COASTAL AREAS...COULD SEE SOME                     
STRATO-CU WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 4 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA.                
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES               
THE REGION.                                                                     
VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST IS THE RAISING OF A               
SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH 3 PM               
SUNDAY. CURRENT SW-W WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE RUNNING 15 TO            
20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...UP TO 5 FT ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.                
LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN 05Z-07Z FOR A COMPLETE               
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. DECENT PRESSURE RISES TO            
FOLLOW...CAA SURGE AND A CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG...WILL ALL                  
COMBINE AND YIELD WIND SPEEDS SURPASSING SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT               
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES RUNNING AT 6 SECOND                   
PERIODS OR LESS WILL COMPRISE THE SEAS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY                 
REACH 4 TO 5 FT...WITH 2 TO 3 FT NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL BE SOME 6               
FOOTERS ACROSS THOSE PRONE WATERS...IE FRYING PAN SHOALS.                       
HOWEVER...THE RAISING OF THE SCA IS PRIMARILY FOR WIND THRESHOLDS               
BEING MET.                                                                      
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                     
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR               
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLE COLD SURGE                   
KICKS UP WINDS AND SEAS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRIME TIME FOR THIS               
WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND                   
RESULTANT LIMITED FETCH EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF SEA HEIGHTS. SMALL               
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET MONDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH SEAS WELL              
AWAY FROM THE COAST. STRONG COLD SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT                 
LIVED HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES OUT OVER THE WATERS BY                     
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.                                                       
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS            
RIGHT ON TOP OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS              
LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY             
SEE A BIT OF A DIURNAL BACKING DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE A 10-15               
KNOT RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.                                 
SEAS OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD SANS A BRIEF                 
UP-TICK EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONT AND INCREASED WINDS SNEAKING IN            
FROM THE NORTH.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-         
     256.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...KREITNER                                                           
LONG TERM...KEEBLER                                                             
AVIATION...SRP                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
438 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA             
THIS EVENING USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS                
OVER THE AREA ON SUN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH THE             
AREA MON AND MON NIGHT LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW              
OFF THE COAST MON EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA                 
THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES MOVES S              
OF THE AREA ON WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N THRU THU.              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BTWN WARM ERN NC AND COOL NRN VA                
THIS AFTN AROUND APPOACHING COLD FRONT. QUITE A BIT OF CHANGE ON TAP            
THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH               
BTWN APPROX 1Z-5Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR NE HALF OF            
THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF SFC LOW...FOR THIS EVENING BUT              
MSTR CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND WOULDNT BE SUPRISED IF NIL                   
MEASURES. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH SOME CU DVLPG              
UPSTREAM NEAR SFC LOW. POST FRONTAL IMPACTS MAY BE MORE NOTICEABLE              
WITH TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE 50S THEN 40S WITH BREEZY NLY               
WINDS. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM SAT PICS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS                  
SUGGEST MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL POST FRONTAL MSTR/CLOUDS WITH               
THE NLY FLOW...SO EXPECT SUNRISE EASTER SERVICES WILL BE                        
CHILLY...BREEZY...AND SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. CANNOT                
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT EITHER BUT NOT                    
EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASUREABLE AT THIS POINT SO WILL KEEP FORECAST              
DRY AFTER 6Z.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                       
WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SUN BEHIND FRONT.             
ANY LINGERING POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BUT COULD SEE SOME            
INSTABILITY CU/SCU DURING THE DAY INLAND BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND        
MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT. OVERALL DRY AND CHILLY DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW             
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH NLY WINDS 10-15              
MPH AND STRONGER NR THE COAST. U30S FOR SUN NIGHT WITH INCRG CLOUD              
COVER AND POSSIBLE -RA LATE ESP NW PORTION.                                     
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING            
WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BTWN NWP GUIDANCE. A MID TO UPR                 
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY JUST W OF THE AREA DURING MON AFTN             
AND THEN SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY                 
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY A WEAK TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH ERN NC BUT AS             
IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE AND BETTERN UPR                 
SUPPORT WITH AMPLIFYING TROF...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DVLP              
OFF THE COAST AND THEN ZIP OUT TO SEA MON NIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH            
A BLEND OF THE WETTER GFS AND THE DRIER NAM...WHICH MAINTAINS VERY              
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCALED BACK ON POPS ESP               
ERN HALF OF CWA LATE SUN NIGHT/AND MON MORNING BUT HAVE GENERALLY 40            
POPS EVERYWHERE MON AFTN...THEN TAPER IT OFF QUICKLY FROM W TO E                
THROUGH MON EVENING. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE VERY LOW THICKNESSES              
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING               
MON...BUT GIVEN HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WHEN BULK OF THE MSTR IS             
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING              
OFFICES HAVE KEPT ALL PRECIP LIQUID AT THIS POINT.                              
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON MON...STRUGGLING TO               
GET OUT OF THE 40S...WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION                
TO LIGHT PRECIP. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W TO E EXPECTED MON NIGHT                
WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST.               
SLOWLY DIMINISHING NLY WINDS COULD KEEP FROST ISSUES LIMITED EARLY              
TUE MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
HIGH PRES BUILDS JUST S OF THE AREA TUE ALLOWING SLOWLY RECOVERING              
TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. WEAK FRONT                  
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA THUR- FRI...BUT STALLED FRONT AND                    
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO REMOVED POPS               
FOR THURSDAY. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS LIKE EARLY WEEKEND WITH                  
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM... BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.              
TEMPS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG THE OBX.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CI HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER             
AM SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES...OBSERVATIONS            
...AND OUT THE WINDOW. WINDS OVER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE             
BREEZY RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM              
THE W. FROPA EXPECTED AT TAF SITES BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT. NOT             
AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY             
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF THUNDER            
SHOWERS AROUND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND WILL CONTINUE BREEZY            
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                  
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL                
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...HELPING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST            
OF FLORIDA DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO              
THE TAF SITES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE MVFR OR IFR            
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. VFR EXPECTED                
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MOD SW WND OVR WTRS THIS AFTN WI SCA CONDS ON THE MID LEGS AS FRNT              
APPCHS FRM THE NW. LTST RUC HOLDS OFF ON FROPA OVR WTRS TIL ARND                
MIDNGT TNGT. GRAD BHND FRNT NOT AS TITE AS AHD OF IT. HWVR GRAD                 
COMBINED WITH CAA SHUD BRING WNDS TO SCA CRIT OVR ALL WTRS AND SNDS             
AFT MIDNGT. GRAD LOOSENS SUMWHAT SUN AFTN AS SFC RDG TRIES TO BLD IN            
FRM THE N. HWVR AS SFC LO STRTS TO DVLP OFF THE E FL CST SUN NGT                
GRAD WL STRT TO TITEN AGAIN WI CONTD NLY FLO OVR THE NC WTRS INTO               
THE BEGINNG OF THE WORKWK.                                                      
UPR LVL TROF SWINGG THRU AREA ON MON. GUD ASSCTD JET AND                        
DYNAMICS. SFC LO DVDLPMNT OFF THE CST MON AFT. CUD SEE A BRIEF PD               
OF GALE CONDS BFR DVLPMNT MVS TOO FAR AWAY FRM THE CST. HV CAPPED               
THE FCST AT ARND 30 KTS FOR NOW. RDG OVR AREA ON TUE WL ALLW WNDS               
AND SEAS TO SETTLE A BIT BFR NXT SYS MVS THRU TO THE N ON TUE NGT               
AND WED. WI LO RMNG TO THE N...XPCT NRN WTRS TO BE MOST EFFECTED                
BY STRGR WND ON WED. THR FRNT WL MV BACK N THRU THE WTRS ON THU.                
GRAD DOESNT LUK TOO STRG RIGHT NOW SO WL KP WND BLO 20KT INTO THE               
WKEND.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RH VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING LATE THIS AFTN BUT GUSTY WINDS PERSIST              
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY FIRE BURNERS/FIGHTERS THIS AFTN/EVENING                 
SHOULD BE AWARE OF A CRITICAL WIND SHIFT EXPECTED LATER THIS                    
EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GO NORTHWEST TO              
NORTH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY APPROX 1Z WITH THE                     
SHIFT/FRONT MOVING SE TO OFF THE COAST BY APPROX 5Z. NLY WINDS                  
10-20 MPH EXPECTED ON SUN...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST ESP EARLY.                  
RH VALUES NOT AS CRITICAL TOMORROW WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...BUT                 
STILL IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE INLAND.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-          
     135-158.                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154-156.                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT                  
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...MW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...MW                                                                 
LONG TERM...CLQ/MW                                                              
AVIATION...CGG                                                                  
MARINE...CGG                                                                    
FIRE WEATHER...MW                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
903 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY             
WINDS BRING WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT                  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...                                       
PIECE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY MAXIMA WORKING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VA              
AND SRN WV AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUC13 DEPICTS A REGION OF NVA                   
WORKING INTO EASTERN KY. SAT IR IMAGERY CONFIRMING PRESENCE OF                  
THIS FEATURE WITH AN AREA OF RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CU FIELD...AND                 
ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUDS ALONG THE VA-WV BORDER.                                   
ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WORKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MAY HELP              
KICK OF A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING                    
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THESE VARIOUS PIECES OF              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH THE A DEEPENING 85H THERMAL                       
TROUGH...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR               
THE REST OF TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                            
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY IS WEAK WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS EVEN FOR                 
UPSLOPE. WILL CONTINUE WILL LOW POPS AND FLURRIES. MAV MOS ONCE                 
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM...SO WILL UNDER CUT. ANY REMAINING                         
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF MONDAY EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION              
SETS IN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM                     
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE            
NORTHWEST. WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MET MOS.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD...AS MODELS HAVE A SERIES OF                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA IN A BASIC ZONAL FLOW               
PATTERN ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE HANDLED SIMILARLY BY MOST MODELS                  
BRINGS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY             
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS OUR EXTREME             
SOUTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEST POPS WILL BE LATER TUESDAY            
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AS MOST OF THE                   
DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS ACROSS OUR NORTH. POPS DIMINISH             
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY                 
AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE                 
DISSIPATED. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...PRETTY SIMILAR TO             
TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                 
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON             
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD...BRINGS            
A WARM FRONT UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY              
MORNING. HERE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE               
ECMWF...WITH THE CANADIAN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND THE UKMET                  
TOWARD THE ECMWF. GOING WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE MODELS...WHICH                 
STILL GOES WITH NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY WITH THESE WARM FRONTS. THAT                 
IS...WITH THE BEST FEED OUT WEST...BEST POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE WEST AND NORTH BEFORE THE FRONT                 
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL             
LEAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...BASICALLY              
DRY AND QUITE WARM. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS              
MAINLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR                
SUNDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE RAIN...EVEN BEHIND THIS FRONT...BEFORE              
ENDING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
POPCORN VARIETY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS                  
THE SRN COALFIELDS THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR              
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH FOR THE                
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCES                   
DYNAMIC LIFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD               
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.                                              
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL                   
BRING SOME SOME WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.               
THE SNOW SHOWERS FIGURED FOR FOR EKN...BUT ELSEWHERE JUST EXPECT                
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000 FT IN THE                
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 3500 IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. CONDITIONS                    
IMPROVE MONDAY AS LOWER LEVEL SCOUR AND DRY.                                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ESS/JMV/RPY                                                          
NEAR TERM...KMC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RPY                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
AVIATION...KMC                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
157 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO WEST VIRGINIA              
BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE                  
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A WEAK TROUGH WILL               
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA               
ON MONDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
UPGRADED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO A HEAVY SNOW WARNING BASED ON THE                 
DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW UPSTREAM AS WELL AS THE                      
PROJECTION OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ONTO THE LAKESHORE NEAR                     
CLEVELAND BY THE RUC OVERNIGHT IN A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH. HEAVY                  
SNOW CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES OR MORE MAY LITERALLY OCCUR WITHIN 10                 
MILES OF THE LAKESHORE AND THE MI BORDER. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL                     
DIMINISH ACROSS ERIE COUNTY PA AS NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD              
DECREASES OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND DIFFLUENT ZONE SLIDE                 
SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTHEAST.                      
SOME VERY WARM AIR FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS GOTTEN ELEVATED INTO THE              
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE                       
DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.                 
HATE TO CHANGE HEADLINES MIDSTREAM BUT SOME OF THIS FREEZING RAIN               
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD AND CANTON               
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON THE SNOW TOTALS IN THAT AREA                   
AND CHANGE THE HAZARD TO A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE. A HEAVY                 
ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AND ANY                  
HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT LAST LONG. A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE               
THOUGH ESPECIALLY BEING AT NIGHT AS DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED             
AND TEMPS WILL DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVERNIGHT WITH THE                     
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MARION SOUTHERN MORROW AND KNOX COUNTIES                  
WHERE TEMPS MAY HOLD ABOVE FREEZING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
FRIDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING AWAY IN THE MORNING...BUT                 
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS EAST HALF UNTIL VORT MOVES                   
THROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SFC LOW. QUIET BY                  
SATURDAY EVENING.                                                               
UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER              
BIT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT SCATTERED INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW                 
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN H5 TROUGH. HAVE                       
INCREASED POPS TO CHC CATEGORY...BUT ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE                  
LIGHT. BUT WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND                
GENERALLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
FAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A            
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS             
AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THE WAVES.  THIS WILL IMPACT THE             
CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE EXTENDED SINCE THE SYSTEMS ARE WEAK AND WILL            
BE TOUGH TO TIME.  THE MODELS DO SHOW COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON               
MONDAY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LAKE                  
EFFECT OVER THE EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SNOW BELT               
REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK                
BECOME MUCH MORE TRICKY.  SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH A FAST ZONAL             
FLOW.  TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS ARE DIFFICULT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOW            
CHC OF PCPN ON MOST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL              
REMAIN SEASONAL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLOW                 
IMPROVEMENT MVFR AFTER 12Z NORTHERN SITES FIRST AND OVER SOUTHERN               
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...WITH CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING              
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND SNOW MOVE OFF TO THE SE.                      
.OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY.                
THEN WEAK SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT              
MONDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THESE SYSTEMS ALL LIKELY               
BRINING PERIOD OF NON VFR WEATHER AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO            
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OHIO.  WINDS               
WILL TURN TO THE NW AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES             
EAST.  RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND              
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT FRONT NOT                   
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.  LAKE ICE IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP A             
LITTLE BIT WITH SOME OPEN HOLES STARTING TO DEVELOP.                            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-007-             
     009>013.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ006-            
     008-017>019-027>032-038.                                                   
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014-020>023-              
     033-089.                                                                   
PA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.                  
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK                                                             
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...GARNET                                                              
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
MARINE...DJB                                                                    
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1043 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A 1009MB LOW OVER WV EARLY TODAY...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND OFF               
THE VIRGINA COAST BY EVENING. COLDER AIR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES                
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE DRY AND COOL                     
SIDE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL                  
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THE LOW AT 12Z WAS OVER WV WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING JUST ABOUT               
DUE-EAST TO THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY. HIGH RES RUC SHOWS THE LOW                   
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WANING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND THAT              
MATCHES THE CURRENT RADAR LOOPS WHICH ARE SHOWING THE PRECIP                    
DWINDLING AND LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. MODELS               
SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING HANGING IN FOR A TIME THRU EARLY               
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WANES AS WELL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID                  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IT ALL POINTS TO THE SNOW CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF              
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE SKIES BRIGHTENING AS SOME                  
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.                                              
PNSCTP ISSUED WITH A PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THRU               
MID MORNING. HEAVIEST STRIPE SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM CLEARFIELD DOWN               
INTO CENTRE COUNTY WIT MOST REPORTS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE.                      
WILL BE CANCELING THE ADVISORY BEFORE 11 AS MOST OF THE SNOW FOR                
THE REST OF THE DAY SHUD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.                              
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND                   
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SE ZONES. THESE TEMPS WILL                  
EQUATE TO 8-10F BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS (GENERALLY IN THE BKN CATEGORY) WILL                        
GRADUALLY THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE                    
RELATIVELY LIGHT NW BREEZE...AND LATE NIGHT THINNING OUT OF THE                 
CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO QUITE COLD LEVELS. MIN TEMPS               
EARLY EASTER MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN               
PENN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.                   
SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY SE OF THE MTNS AND MAINLY CLOUDY                    
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.                      
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT AND 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES INCREASING                
TO AROUND 7.5C/KM LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
HALF OF PENN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS                 
WITH AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY FLYING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE PARTS OF               
THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1.0 EXPECTED SUNDAY                
NIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.                                           
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BELOW NORMAL                  
OVER THE MTNS WHERE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND THE FRESH SNOW PACK                
WILL BE FOUND. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NRN AND WRN MTNS               
AND 40-45F ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE SEVERAL...TO AS                
MUCH AS 10-12F BELOW NORMAL.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO START THE                       
WEEK...KEEPING TEMPS COOL AND CLOUDS PLENTIFUL. NW FLOW WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF                 
INTRUSIONS OF WARMER AIR ALONG WITH WEAK STORM SYSTEMS.                         
TEMPS DO WARM BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AS CLIPPER TYPE                
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT THROUGH AND               
COOLING US DOWN AGAIN FOR LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR WILL PERSIST                   
ALONG THE NY BORDER...WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
PORTIONS OF CWA.                                                                
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS A                  
WARM-UP MAY BE IN STORE AS NEXT STRONG LOW SLIDES TO OUR NW KEEPING             
US ON THE WARMER SIDE BUT BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SNOW DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE               
SO CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SATELLITE              
SHOTS SHOW PLENTY OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS SO CLEARING MAY BE HARD                
TO COME BY...BUT MOST SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS IN THE VFR/HIGH                   
MVFR RANGE BEFORE THE AFTERNOON ENDS. VIS SHUD BE MAINLY UNLIMITED              
OTHER THAN FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CAUSING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO                 
THE 2-3 MILE RANGE.                                                             
MVFR/VFR STRATO CU WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. PASSAGE OF               
COLD UPR TROF COULD KICK OFF SOME SCT -SHSN SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.                
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR MON NGT/TUE AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT.                      
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MID WEEK. PCPN LOOKS TO BE               
MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ010>012-017>019-024-                  
025-033-045.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE                                                             
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE                                                            
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT                                                 
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR                                                         
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL                                                   
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
756 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR COLUMBUS OHIO EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE                
EAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY. THIS LOW                 
WILL BRING SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS               
MORNING. COLDER AIR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPCOMING                
WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE...BUT TEMPERATURES                 
WILL STEADILY MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL MODELS...ALONG WITH THEIR KINEMATIC AND                   
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...ARE NICELY HANDLING THE LOCATION AND                     
INTENSITY OF THE NEARLY EAST TO WEST SNOW AREA STRETCHING FROM                  
NORTHERN OHIO...ACROSS CENTRAL PENN (ROUGHLY 30-40 NM EITHER SIDE               
OF INTERSTATE 80). 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS MAX VIA THE 40KM NAM                   
CAPTURES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS...WITH THE 290K ISENTROPIC SFC              
(AND UVVEL ALONG IT) BEST DEPICTING THE BANDS OF EMBEDDED 1/2SM -               
MDT SNOW ALONG WITH THE SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THE PRECIP                   
AREA OVER THE NRN PENN MTNS ATTM.                                               
A RELATIVELY STRONG MID/UPR SHORT WAVE CROSSING NERN OHIO AT 07Z                
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW AT VARYING INTENSITY (BRIEFLY                       
1/4-1/2SM) INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND               
SWRN PENN WITH ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS                 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN KDUJ AND KIPT...SW TO NEAR KUNV...KJST               
AND KAOO. 03Z SREF MEAN QPF IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE                       
OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS...BUT ITS "EXTREMELY WIDE RANGE" OF QPF OVER THE            
NEXT 6-9 HRS SUGGESTS THE UNCERTAINTY OF NUMEROUS MEMBERS WITH                  
RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO THE SNOW.                    
COMPARISON OF NAM/RUC ISENT LIFT...FRONTOGENESIS...AND OMEGA                    
FIELDS WITH RADAR TRENDS WILL HANDLE THE SNOWFALL LOCATION AND                  
TIMING BEST HERE.                                                               
WE EXPANDED THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY (WHICH RUNS UNTIL NOON EDT)               
SLIGHTLY TO THE NE...INCLUDING CAMERON AND CLINTON                              
COUNTIES...WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN HALF OF BOTH COUNTIES.                                                 
THE STRONG ASCENT BENEATH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE 110 KT 250                 
HPA JET...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BRING SOME +TSSN TO THE                
LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.                          
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ISENT LIFT IN THE 285-295K THETA CHANNEL                  
GRADUALLY WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW AREA SAGGING TO              
THE SE...SO I CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE               
VALLEYS OF SCENT PENN AND THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BEST               
CHC FOR AND INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL              
BE NEAR KSEG.                                                                   
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON              
MAINLY ACROSS THE WCENT MTNS AND LAURELS...WHILE SKIES STAY MAINLY              
CLOUDY ELSEWHERE WITH FLURRIES/SNIZZLE. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TO               
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE TODAY.                                         
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG BELOW ALL MOS GUIDANCE...                   
PARTICULARLY WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW IS FALLING THIS MORNING. HIGHS              
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH...TO              
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SE ZONES. THESE TEMPS WILL EQUATE TO                   
8-10F BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS (GENERALLY IN THE BKN CATEGORY) WILL                        
GRADUALLY THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE                    
RELATIVELY LIGHT NW BREEZE...AND LATE NIGHT THINNING OUT OF THE                 
CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO QUITE COLD LEVELS. MIN TEMPS               
EARLY EASTER MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN               
PENN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.                   
SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY SE OF THE MTNS AND MAINLY CLOUDY                    
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.                      
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT AND 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES INCREASING                
TO AROUND 7.5C/KM LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
HALF OF PENN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS                 
WITH AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY FLYING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE PARTS OF               
THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1.0 EXPECTED SUNDAY                
NIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.                                           
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BELOW NORMAL                  
OVER THE MTNS WHERE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND THE FRESH SNOW PACK                
WILL BE FOUND. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NRN AND WRN MTNS               
AND 40-45F ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE SEVERAL...TO AS                
MUCH AS 10-12F BELOW NORMAL.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO START THE                       
WEEK...KEEPING TEMPS COOL AND CLOUDS PLENTIFUL. NW FLOW WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF                 
INTRUSIONS OF WARMER AIR ALONG WITH WEAK STORM SYSTEMS.                         
TEMPS DO WARM BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AS CLIPPER TYPE                
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT THROUGH AND               
COOLING US DOWN AGAIN FOR LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR WILL PERSIST                   
ALONG THE NY BORDER...WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
PORTIONS OF CWA.                                                                
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS A                  
WARMUP MAY BE IN STORE AS NEXT STRONG LOW SLIDES TO OUR NW KEEPING              
US ON THE WARMER SIDE BUT BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS -SN BCMG MORE SCTD/CELLULAR THIS MORNING AS                
SFC LOW WEAKENS OVR NRN VA. IR SAT SHOWS BLANKET OF STRATO CU                   
ASSOC WITH UPR LVL TROF OVR THE WRN GLKS HEADED FOR WCENT                       
PENN...WHICH WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR CONDS AROUND FOR AWHILE AT                      
JST/AOO/UNV. ONCL -SN MAY BRING CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR AT MDT                    
EARLY PRIOR TO 18Z. VFR TO CONT AT BFD/IPT.                                     
MVFR/VFR STRATO CU WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. PASSAGE OF               
COLD UPR TROF COULD KICK OFF SOME SCT -SHSN SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.                
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR MON NGT/TUE AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT. A CLD                
FNT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MID WEEK. PCPN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY                 
RAIN WITH THIS SYS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ010>012-017>019-024-                  
025-033-045.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT                                                              
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT                                                  
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT                                                 
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR                                                         
AVIATION...STEINBUGL                                                            
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1029 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS IN SHORT TERM UPDATE PHASE            
TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST EASTER DAY IN FOUR DECADES DESPITE A              
FAIR NUMBER OF MARCH EASTERS DURING THAT TIME. CAA SET TO CONTINUE              
THRU DAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE I29 CORRIDOR AND SW MN             
LATE TODAY. ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS PRESENT ACRS AREA...WITH AN                 
ABUNDANCE OF FLURRIES AS SHALLOW UNSTABLE LYR TOPPING OUT WITHIN                
DECENT ICE GENERATION TMPS.  DEEPER MOISTURE CERTAINLY E...BUT                  
DRYING PUSH NOTED SINKING THRU SW MN. MAY BE A TEMPORARY PUSH OF                
CLEARING AS COOLER TMPS ALFT CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SELF                       
DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. OTHER MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD BAND COULD EXIST              
BY MID AFTN FROM NW TO SE IN HEART OF CWA...JUST ON COLD SIDE OF                
BAROCLINIC BAND WHERE RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP LATE IN DAY.                 
FULL MIXING TO 900 HPA COMES UP SHORT BY MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES              
MOST LOCATIONS...AND WHERE CLOUDS CONTINUE LONGER THRU DAY IS LKLY              
TO END UP EVEN COOLER THAN MIXING SUGGESTS.  A DROP OF ABOUT 3-4F               
ACROSS THE BOARD SEEMS REASONABLE...AND MAY NEED MORE WHERE CLOUDS              
END UP THE MOST PERSISTENT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MORE MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FLURRIES LKLY TO                   
PERSIST THRU MOST OF AFTN.  WHOLE SCALE CLEARING EXPECTED TO                    
COMMENCE LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG...LOSING CIGS IN 22Z-01Z                     
WINDOW.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF               
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AGAIN LATE IN            
THE WEEK. FOR TODAY STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FLURRIES ROTATING             
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT NOT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY IN              
REGARDS TO COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TO                 
SCATTERED FLURRIES SHOULD COVER WELL IN AREAS WHERE RUC SHOWS BEST              
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN FAVORED SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE. INFLUX             
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW WESTERN CWA TO SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE            
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME STRATUS LINGERS OVER MN/IA COUNTIES.             
925MB TEMPS EVEN COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON              
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SUN TO HELP                  
OFFSET SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE NORTHEAST              
FA...AND WARM UP WESTERN AREAS WHERE GREATER SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.              
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH             
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND PICKING UP QUICKLY ON MONDAY             
IN ADVANCE OF COOL FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL DAY IN              
A WHILE...AND ALAS WILL BE THE ONLY ONE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE               
UPCOMING WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO PASS BY              
NORTH OF OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT               
THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH NAM/GFS STRUGGLE TO SATURATE LOWER ATMOSPHERE            
BELOW 800MB...SO WILL LEAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY WITH JUST AN                
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS.                                                         
DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY               
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING...WITH BOTH GFS/NAM MIXING TO ABOVE                
800MB. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON WINDS FOR TUESDAY...BUT            
STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 30MPH DURING PEAK MIXING...              
THOUGH EVEN WITH DEEPER MIXING TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY.                
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND              
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON              
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH MOST SHOW SOME                 
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN FA EARLIER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO                  
WESTERN CWA FOR THE EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH THIS            
SYSTEM IS HOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE FA LATER IN               
THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST HAS PRIMARILY               
RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOR SOME                 
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL              
TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS EVEN WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING TO                 
BELOW -10C IN THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY...SO HAVE NOT MADE             
ANY CHANGES TO PRECIP TYPE FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. JH           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
355 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF               
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AGAIN LATE IN            
THE WEEK. FOR TODAY STILL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FLURRIES ROTATING             
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT NOT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY IN              
REGARDS TO COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TO                 
SCATTERED FLURRIES SHOULD COVER WELL IN AREAS WHERE RUC SHOWS BEST              
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN FAVORED SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE. INFLUX             
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW WESTERN CWA TO SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE            
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME STRATUS LINGERS OVER MN/IA COUNTIES.             
925MB TEMPS EVEN COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON              
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SUN TO HELP                  
OFFSET SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE NORTHEAST              
FA...AND WARM UP WESTERN AREAS WHERE GREATER SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.              
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH             
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND PICKING UP QUICKLY ON MONDAY             
IN ADVANCE OF COOL FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL DAY IN              
A WHILE...AND ALAS WILL BE THE ONLY ONE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE               
UPCOMING WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO PASS BY              
NORTH OF OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT               
THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH NAM/GFS STRUGGLE TO SATURATE LOWER ATMOSPHERE            
BELOW 800MB...SO WILL LEAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY WITH JUST AN                
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS.                                                         
DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY               
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING...WITH BOTH GFS/NAM MIXING TO ABOVE                
800MB. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON WINDS FOR TUESDAY...BUT            
STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 30MPH DURING PEAK MIXING...              
THOUGH EVEN WITH DEEPER MIXING TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY.                
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND              
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON              
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH MOST SHOW SOME                 
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN FA EARLIER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS TO                  
WESTERN CWA FOR THE EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH THIS            
SYSTEM IS HOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE FA LATER IN               
THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST HAS PRIMARILY               
RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOR SOME                 
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL              
TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS EVEN WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING TO                 
BELOW -10C IN THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY...SO HAVE NOT MADE             
ANY CHANGES TO PRECIP TYPE FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR BY THIS EVENING.            
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOCAL TAF SITES                
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE. CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST THIS                   
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SKIES BEGIN TO              
CLEAR.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/LIEBL                                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
110 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN                 
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...GAP WINDS THROUGH THE                 
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WILL DECREASE. THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN               
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z.                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREA                 
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE                 
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE KHOB AND KMAF                       
TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. WE EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT                
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CAN STILL EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE               
EVENING HOURS. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO BREAK UP/LIFT...WE MAY SEE               
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT               
HAD DECENT RAINFALL. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES                
CONFINED TO KMAF GIVEN OBSERVED RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL                  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KINK AND KPEQ AFTER 10Z.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL                   
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND THE                   
LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12 SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL                    
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE                       
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN                           
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE                
CLOUDS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES                
EXCEPT KCNM AND KHOB THIS MORNING.  IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES               
COULD OCCUR AS THESE STORMS PASS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...               
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST               
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD COVER CLEARS THE ARA                 
THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20KT AT MOST TAF                   
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE. WIND              
SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND                 
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.  67                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EASTER SUNDAY              
NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR 300                
J/KG HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS              
THIS AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT.  STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN DROP OFF                
AFTER SUNRISE AS INSTABILITY AXIS BEGINS TO DIMINISH.  SHOWERS WILL             
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN               
NEW MEXICO AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY.  RAIN              
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO                        
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS COLD AIR                   
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS                 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION... NORTHEAST WINDS                 
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH AREAWIDE AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BRING                  
WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGHS BE INTO THE              
LOW TO MID 80S BY MIDWEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. BY THE END OF               
THE DAY...RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO RELIEVE DRY CONDITIONS THAT                   
HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.                                 
FIRE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED THIS WEEK AS WEST WINDS                    
INCREASE AND DRY AIR RETURNS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND WHAT AREAS RECEIVE                   
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS...THE FIRE DANGER MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN                 
OF LATE. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO               
AMPLIFY AS THE NEXT TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS THE U.S.  MODELS ARE                
SUGGESTING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE              
IN THE WEEK BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE UP IN                
THE AIR.  ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS                 
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MDT TODAY FOR            
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH                 
TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD                   
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS WEST-           
CENTRAL TEXAS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                        
UPDATE...RUC ANALYZED/WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A 400MB VORT MAX ACROSS                
CENTRAL TX GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. STILL THINK               
THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY (PER 12Z CRP SOUNDING) AND THE FORCING                
IS TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WILL                
MAINTAIN THE SILENT 10 POPS IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT. AT THE                    
SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO TIGHTEN AS HIGH                      
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES. SOME REGIONAL TCOON OBS IN                 
THE BAYS ARE REPORTING 20KT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DECIDED TO                 
UPDATE THE CWF TO HOIST SCA FLAGS FOR THE BAYS UNTIL THIS                       
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD BE IN WEST TEXAS                 
AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO               
UPDATED THE ZFP TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA                 
PER CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS              
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ALL SIMILAR WITH                     
BRINGING A WEAK AND RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION             
THIS MORNING. NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS.               
HAVE COMPRISED TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...SIMILAR TO THE                
SREF. THUS...THINK THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM N TO S                 
AROUND 15Z TODAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AFT 18Z. EXPECT           
BREEZY NE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH TODAY. MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT TOO           
LIMITED TO ALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES. THUS HAVE LEFT             
10% POPS. ALL MODELS SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH              
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 5K FT (~850 MB). ALREADY SEEING LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY                     
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS DECREASE BY MONDAY                  
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE               
NAM AND GFS...MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIFFERENT FOR MAXES TODAY.                  
MAINTAINED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MUCH WARMER NAM AND COOLER GFS.             
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 50S NEAR THE COAST.                
THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10-12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...GIVEN THAT             
THE DAY WILL AT LEAST START MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE STILL               
SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HAVE KEPT COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S              
TO LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO MORE EASTERLY BY            
LATE DAY.                                                                       
MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO LOW END SCA LEVELS                   
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TODAY OVER THE GULF (SCEC BAYS)...WITH SCA                   
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL                
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HAVE LEFT SCA UP            
THROUGH 21Z MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO SEAS REMAINING NEAR 7FT OVER THE               
GULF.                                                                           
AVIATION...A LITTLE SURPRISINGLY THIS MORNING LRD CIGS HAVE DROPPED             
TO MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN               
RAISE BACK TO VFR. ALL AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR                     
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CIGS AOB 35K FT. NOT EXPECTING              
ANY PROBLEMS WITH SIGNIFICANT FOG THIS MORNING. COULD BE A BRIEF                
PERIOD THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH VSBYS 3-5SM IN BR.                                
FIRE WEATHER...BECOMING DRIER AND BREEZY TODAY...BUT RH AND WINDS               
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS. CONTINUED DRY ON                  
MONDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.                                  
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF                
CONVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN INCLUDING AN UPPER                   
SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS LATE FRI/SAT. YET...THE GFS                
PROGS SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMPLITUDE WITH RESPECT TO THIS                      
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A FROPA SAT. HWR...GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE                
500MB ENSEMBLES NOT CONFIDENT THAT FROPA WL OCCUR THIS FAR SOUTH.               
THUS...WL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS                
PROGS A REGION OF MSTR TO ENTER THE SWRN GULF TDA THEN EVENTUALLY               
INTO THE CWFA BY TUE...GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATES THAT THE REGION              
OF ENHANCED PW VALUES DID NOT ADVANCE DRG THE PAST 24 HRS. NOT                  
SURE IF THE MSTR RETURN WL OCCUR BY TUE. THUS...REMOVE THE POPS                 
FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH MSTR WL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION AFTERWARD...THE               
GFS MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT THERMODYNAMIC CAP DRG THE THU-SAT                   
PERIOD. THUS...WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  50  71  58  74  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
VICTORIA          70  45  69  51  72  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
LAREDO            74  52  74  60  82  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             71  48  71  53  76  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          70  52  68  59  71  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
COTULLA           71  46  72  52  78  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        71  49  71  57  75  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       71  55  67  60  72  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                    
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL                 
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...               
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT                
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT                     
     O`CONNOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TM/95...AVIATION/UPDATE                                                         
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1157 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL                   
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND THE                   
LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12 SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL                    
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE                       
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN                           
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE                
CLOUDS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES                
EXCEPT KCNM AND KHOB THIS MORNING.  IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES               
COULD OCCUR AS THESE STORMS PASS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...               
IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST               
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD COVER CLEARS THE ARA                 
THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20KT AT MOST TAF                   
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE. WIND              
SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND                 
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.  67                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EASTER SUNDAY              
NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR 300                
J/KG HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS              
THIS AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT.  STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN DROP OFF                
AFTER SUNRISE AS INSTABILITY AXIS BEGINS TO DIMINISH.  SHOWERS WILL             
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN               
NEW MEXICO AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY.  RAIN              
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO                        
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS COLD AIR                   
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS                 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION... NORTHEAST WINDS                 
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH AREAWIDE AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BRING                  
WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.  EXPECTING HIGHS BE INTO THE              
LOW TO MID 80S BY MIDWEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. BY THE END OF               
THE DAY...RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO RELIEVE DRY CONDITIONS THAT                   
HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.                                 
FIRE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED THIS WEEK AS WEST WINDS                    
INCREASE AND DRY AIR RETURNS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.                
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY AND WHAT AREAS RECEIVE                   
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS...THE FIRE DANGER MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN                 
OF LATE. BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO               
AMPLIFY AS THE NEXT TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS THE U.S.  MODELS ARE                
SUGGESTING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE              
IN THE WEEK BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE UP IN                
THE AIR.  ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS                 
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MDT TODAY FOR            
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/21                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...RUC ANALYZED/WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A 400MB VORT MAX ACROSS               
CENTRAL TX GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. STILL THINK               
THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY (PER 12Z CRP SOUNDING) AND THE FORCING                
IS TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WILL                
MAINTAIN THE SILENT 10 POPS IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT. AT THE                    
SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO TIGHTEN AS HIGH                      
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES. SOME REGIONAL TCOON OBS IN                 
THE BAYS ARE REPORTING 20KT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DECIDED TO                 
UPDATE THE CWF TO HOIST SCA FLAGS FOR THE BAYS UNTIL THIS                       
AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD BE IN WEST TEXAS                 
AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO               
UPDATED THE ZFP TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA                 
PER CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS              
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ALL SIMILAR WITH                     
BRINGING A WEAK AND RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION             
THIS MORNING. NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS.               
HAVE COMPRISED TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...SIMILAR TO THE                
SREF. THUS...THINK THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM N TO S                 
AROUND 15Z TODAY...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AFT 18Z. EXPECT           
BREEZY NE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH TODAY. MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT TOO           
LIMITED TO ALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES. THUS HAVE LEFT             
10% POPS. ALL MODELS SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH              
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 5K FT (~850 MB). ALREADY SEEING LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY                     
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS DECREASE BY MONDAY                  
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE               
NAM AND GFS...MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIFFERENT FOR MAXES TODAY.                  
MAINTAINED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MUCH WARMER NAM AND COOLER GFS.             
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 50S NEAR THE COAST.                
THESE TEMPS WILL BE 10-12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...GIVEN THAT             
THE DAY WILL AT LEAST START MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE STILL               
SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HAVE KEPT COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S              
TO LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO MORE EASTERLY BY            
LATE DAY.                                                                       
MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO LOW END SCA LEVELS                   
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z TODAY OVER THE GULF (SCEC BAYS)...WITH SCA                   
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL                
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HAVE LEFT SCA UP            
THROUGH 21Z MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO SEAS REMAINING NEAR 7FT OVER THE               
GULF.                                                                           
AVIATION...A LITTLE SURPRISINGLY THIS MORNING LRD CIGS HAVE DROPPED             
TO MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN               
RAISE BACK TO VFR. ALL AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR                     
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CIGS AOB 35K FT. NOT EXPECTING              
ANY PROBLEMS WITH SIGNIFICANT FOG THIS MORNING. COULD BE A BRIEF                
PERIOD THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH VSBYS 3-5SM IN BR.                                
FIRE WEATHER...BECOMING DRIER AND BREEZY TODAY...BUT RH AND WINDS               
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS. CONTINUED DRY ON                  
MONDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.                                  
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF                
CONVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN INCLUDING AN UPPER                   
SYSTEM PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS LATE FRI/SAT. YET...THE GFS                
PROGS SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMPLITUDE WITH RESPECT TO THIS                      
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A FROPA SAT. HWR...GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE                
500MB ENSEMBLES NOT CONFIDENT THAT FROPA WL OCCUR THIS FAR SOUTH.               
THUS...WL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS                
PROGS A REGION OF MSTR TO ENTER THE SWRN GULF TDA THEN EVENTUALLY               
INTO THE CWFA BY TUE...GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATES THAT THE REGION              
OF ENHANCED PW VALUES DID NOT ADVANCE DRG THE PAST 24 HRS. NOT                  
SURE IF THE MSTR RETURN WL OCCUR BY TUE. THUS...REMOVE THE POPS                 
FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH MSTR WL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION AFTERWARD...THE               
GFS MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT THERMODYNAMIC CAP DRG THE THU-SAT                   
PERIOD. THUS...WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  50  71  58  74  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
VICTORIA          70  45  69  51  72  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
LAREDO            74  52  74  60  82  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             71  48  71  53  76  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          70  52  68  59  71  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
COTULLA           71  46  72  52  78  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        71  49  71  57  75  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       71  55  67  60  72  /  10  10   0  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20                    
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL                 
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...               
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT                
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT                     
     O`CONNOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TM/95...UPDATE                                                                  
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
101 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND                 
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL                    
TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUC13 DATA. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING                 
PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...MAINLY EAST OF A LAMESA TO                   
GARDEN CITY LINE. LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP IN THIS REGION                
AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCE THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND WILL ONLY MENTION                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OVERALL...THE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND                       
GENERALLY MINOR CHANGE HAVE BEEN MADE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER                   
LEVEL CLOUDS. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH                   
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND                 
SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 12KTS FOR MOST SITES AROUND 00Z. A STRONG COLD               
FRONT WILL BACK WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND                    
OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20KT AND GUSTS TO NEAR                
30 KT...PARTICULARLY AT KHOB...KINK AND KMAF. THESE STRONGER WINDS              
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS                
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 23/12Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                
WILL INCREASE AFTER 23/06Z...AT KHOB AND KMAF...THEN INTO THE KINK              
AND KPEQ TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT                
OF THE KFST AND KCNM TERMINALS AS THESE SITES WILL BE REMOVED FROM              
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE                      
HAIL...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS CONFINED                
TO TERMINALS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY                     
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.  EASTERLY WINDS               
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO            
AROUND 15KT THIS EVENING.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BACK WINDS TO               
THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20KT AND             
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT...PARTICULARLY AT KHOB...KINK AND KMAF.  THESE              
STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING.  MVFR                  
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER...OR MOVE INTO...ALL TAF SITES            
BY 23/12Z.  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 23/06Z              
AT KHOB AND KMAF...THEN AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 23/12Z.            
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLED ALONG THE DAVIS               
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS HAS BECOME DIFFUSED.  TEMPERATURES TODAY                
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.  MID/HIGH             
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA               
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MIGHT KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...               
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE              
AND 850MB WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WEST                
TEXAS. CONVECTION THEN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN               
NEW MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND                  
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING LAPSE                   
RATES TO BE 7-8 C/KM AND LI/S AROUND -4.  0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS              
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH               
THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH                 
THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING.  BY THAT TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE                
FORM OF SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO LESS                    
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE              
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL              
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.  EXPECT THE QPF TO BE HIGHER OVER EASTERN                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT              
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND                   
QUICKLY DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST                    
WINDS.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY                   
MIDWEEK AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S OVER               
THE EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.                   
THEREFORE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS.                 
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
ALTHOUGH RECOVERY THIS MORNING WAS FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE...RH/S WILL            
DROP TO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE AGAIN FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS            
AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER              
TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...DAVIS MOUNTAINS...                
PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND REGION. HOWEVER...20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS              
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.                            
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST                
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS             
WILL BE MUCH LESS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY AS MINIMUM               
RH/S WILL BE WELL ABOVE 15 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 20 PERCENT            
AT THE LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA               
TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK               
STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS             
THOUGH.  WEDNESDAY MAY BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY THOUGH AS                 
WINDS COULD INCREASE FURTHER AND THE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA.             
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
300 PM PDT SAT MAR 22 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY                    
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN                  
WASHINGTON. A RATHER COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST                   
PACIFIC AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED                     
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...A NICE LOOKING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT             
ISN`T TAPPED IN TO A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE LIKE YOU SEE IN EARLY               
WINTER OR ANYTHING IN FACT THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A FRONT EXTENDING                
SOUTH OF 40N BUT RATHER JUST A SKINNY ROPE CLOUD VISIBLE. WHILE IT              
IS A FAR CRY FROM A NOV/DEC SYSTEM BUOY5 IS UP TO 30KT SO FAR AND               
THERE ARE GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES IN THE MM5 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS             
AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS WELL BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE MM5GFS               
ALSO SHOWS A GOOD SHOT OF WESTERLY GALES DEVELOPING LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT...ON THE 4KM MM5GFS THERE IS                
QUITE A LULL BETWEEN FROPA AROUND PUGET SOUND AT 15Z AND THE                    
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER IN              
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SURFACE TROUGH.            
I HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE              
MOUNTAINS...IT WILL BE MORE WINTERLIKE AT WHITE PASS AND PARADISE               
AND HURRICANE RIDGE. NOT SO BAD ON THE LOWER PASSES STEVENS AND                 
SNOQUALMIE WHERE THE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROADS DURING THE DAY.            
BUT COLD AIR DOES FOLLOW THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SNOW LEVEL              
FALLING TO 1500 FEET OR SO WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW                 
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WESTERLIES DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND                 
ONSHORE FLOW THRU MONDAY NIGHT. 19                                              
.LONG TERM...THE GFS IS WET EVERY DAY. MAY NOT BE AS BAD AS THAT BUT            
RATHER SHOWERY. UNSTABLE AIR MASS SO CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT TIMES.             
CERTAINLY NOT IN FOR A STRETCH OF WARM ADVECTION THAT WOULD PUT                 
STABLE DRIZZLY CONDITIONS IN HERE. STILL...IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH A             
SNOW LEVEL OF 1500 FEET...OR LOWER IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS IN            
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SPRINGTIME INSOLATION SHOULD PREVENT ANY LASTING               
ACCUMULATION BELOW 1500 FEET. GFS 500MB TEMP IN THE -32C TO -36C                
RANGE ALL NEXT WEEK. SOME GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS EVEN IN THE                    
LOWLANDS. GFS HAS -40C 500MB POSSIBLY WORKING IN OVER BRITISH                   
COLUMBIA LATER IN THE WEEK...YOU DON`T SEE THAT TOO OFTEN IN LATE               
MARCH. MM5 EXTENSION HAD SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM TIME TO TIME IN            
THE LOWLANDS...MOSTLY WITH A FEATURE THAT AFFECTED THE SOUTHWEST                
INTERIOR ON ONE DAY. HOWEVER EVERYTHING WILL HAVE TO SET UP JUST                
RIGHT. MORE LIKELY ONLY SNOWFLAKES IN HEAVY SHOWERS...MAYBE IN THE              
PSCZ ONE DAY...AND BEST CHANCE ON THE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE TOO EARLY            
TO SAY. DID DROP THE MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AS 50F HIGHS WILL BE            
A STRUGGLE. MAY HAVE TO LOWER THE MIN TEMPS AS WELL TUE-FRI                     
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF ONSHORE FLOW. 19                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVED INTO EASTERN WA THIS AFTERNOON              
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS W WA...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.             
IR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE FRONT RIGHT ABOUT 130W AT 22Z. THIS                
FRONT WILL HEAD DUE EAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP REACHING THE COAST            
BY 06-09Z. FROPA FOR THE COAST WILL AROUND 12Z...AND 15Z FOR THE                
INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS               
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.                             
KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT OFFSHORE                 
APPROACHES WA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SELY AS WELL.            
PRECIP TIMING LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 09-12Z WITH FROPA AROUND 15Z. RAIN              
AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO LOWER CIGS FROM OVC020-030 DURING THE MORNING.            
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A 997 MB SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE BC COAST WILL HEAD NE                
TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES THIS EVENING...WITH SELY FLOW INCREASING            
ACROSS WA. EXPECTING GALES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST                   
ENTRANCE OF JDF WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INTERIOR WATERS             
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE                 
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA ABOUT 12Z...AND 15Z FOR THE                 
INTERIOR.                                                                       
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS                
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A             
PRETTY GOOD WLY PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT AND HOISTED ANOTHER SMALL               
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...WILL TO TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL GALES WITH              
ANY GUSTS. ONSHORE FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH EARLY             
NEXT WEEK. 33                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.           
.GALE WARNING COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE THIS EVENING.                             
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN                
INLAND WATERS AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL THIS EVENING.                          
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT SUN AFTERNOON.                             
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.                    
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE                                                             
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
322 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...FLOW AT HIGH LATITUDES WL REMAIN QUITE BLOCKY THROUGHOUT            
THE FCST PERIOD. FARTHER S ACRS THE CONUS...UPR TROF OVER THE E WL              
FINISH AMPLIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN EXPECT THE FLOW              
TO FLATTEN BACK INTO A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF WESTERLIES BY MID-                
WK. THE FLOW FCST REAMPLIFY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WK...AT               
THE SAME TIME THAT TROF NEW PROGRESSES EWD ACRS THE PLAINS.                     
NWLY UPR FLOW INTO THE ERN CONUS TROF WL KEEP TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY               
BLO NORMAL EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. TEMPS LATER IN THE FCST WL                 
DEPEND ON THE LCN OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP ALONG THE SRN                
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WL BE S OF THE                
AREA...SO READINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL.               
WIDESPREAD LGT PCPN EVENT EXPECTED MON NGT AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND             
WARMER AIR ALOFT STARTS TO RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A             
SIG PCPN EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK WAS INCREASING. LOOKS LIKE A STG               
BUT SLOW MOVG FRONTAL ZONE WL SET UP FM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER               
GREAT LAKES RGN AS THE UPR FLOW STARTS TO BACK SW AHEAD OF                      
DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. MED RANGE MODELS STILL NOT             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...BUT IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON OVERALL                
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. LOOKS LIKE ONE SHOT OF PCPN WITH INITIAL              
SFC WV RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND                
SHOT AS MAIN SFC SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                
SWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO PLAY...SO PCPN AMNTS COULD            
BE SUBSTANTIAL. THE BULK OF THE GUID SUGGESTS PCPN WOULD BE SNOW...             
BUT THAT CAN GET TRICKY THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNG/MON. WK DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE SE ACRS THE AREA             
TDA. MODELS...ESP RUC...SEEM TO HAVE PICKED UP ON LINGERING DRY AIR             
AT LOW-LEVELS ACRS THE AREA. THAT FIT WELL WITH AREA AIRCRAFT                   
SOUNDINGS FM YDA EVENING. GIVEN WK FORCING AND LTD MOISTURE TO START            
WITH...TOUGH TO GO FOR MORE THAN JUST A CHC S-/S--. SOME FZDZ                   
REPORTED OUT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN WE HAVE THE DRY AIR              
AT LOW-LEVELS THAT SHOULDN/T BE A CONCERN HERE.                                 
STLT LOOP INDICATED VIRTUALLY CLOUD-FREE AIR MASS N OF LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. SO...GOT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECR CLDS LATER TDA/TNGT. MAY             
NEED TO DECR SKYCON FURTHER...ESP IF WE DON/T GET ANY CLDS OFF LAKE             
SUPERIOR. HIGH CLDS SHOULD INCR FM THE W AGAIN MON AFTN.                        
TEMPS DID NOT FALL OFF VERY MUCH SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. WK                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD START TO WORK S ACRS THE AREA DURING THE                
NEXT COUPLE HRS...AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A BIGGER DROP ACRS THE N.              
IN ANY CASE...TEMPS RUNNING ABV 3 HOURLY GUID...SO WENT A LITTLE                
ABV GUID FOR HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TDA.                                
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NITE THRU SATURDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON SYSTEM                
AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY AND LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                      
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THRU                
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NITE AND TUESDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP                  
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AHEAD OF IT MONDAY NITE WITH WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION SNOWFALL. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED                   
MONDAY NITE AS THE LOW QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH               
MOISTURE THE SYSTEM PICKS UP...HOWEVER 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEMS TO                   
ENCOMPASS THE HIGHER AND LOWER ENDS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.                     
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...SO NOT                
MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR                   
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE A SECONDARY VORT                 
MAX SWINGS THRU...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT                       
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED.                   
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT                  
LAKES IN LATE IN THE WEEK. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF                 
THE LOW...THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING              
THRU NORTHERN ILLINOIS EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NITE. THE                    
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO MOVE THE SYSTEM THRU...WHILE THE GFS                
MOVES THE SYSTEM THRU THE SLOWEST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUGGESTS                
NORTHERN WISCONSIN COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF MEASURABLE SNOW AS               
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE BRUNT OF                
THE PRECIP COMES THRU. HOWEVER THE MODELS THEMSELVES HAVE BEEN                  
HOPPING AROUND A BIT...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...SO WILL ONLY MAKE                 
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE N FOR A TIME             
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY W OF THE             
AREA...WTIH PRIMARILY VFR CONDTIONS ACRS THE AREA TDA AND TNGT.                 
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SKOWRONSKI/KURIMSKI                                                             
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
253 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
252 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
UPPER FLOW IS NORTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONS                          
TO ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A               
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND SHIFT             
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH             
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH                    
PRESSURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH               
THIS ENTIRE FORECAST.                                                           
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEAL WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT FIRE                
WEATHER WATCH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BY BOTH THE NAM/RUC ARE LOW             
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO JUSTIFY A WARNING. THE GFS HAS HIGHER RH             
VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITERIA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER THE WIND              
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH COMING OVERHEAD DURING             
MAX HEATING DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG. ACCORDING THE                  
BUFKIT DATA THE MAX WIND THAT CAN BE MIXED DOWN WOULD BE 15KTS OR               
ABOUT 17 MPH. THIS IS NOT QUITE UP TO THE 25 MPH REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH             
THE WATCH COULD BE CANCELED...PLAN TO KEEP IT GOING AND THE DAY                 
SHIFT CAN ISSUE THE WARNING IN THE MORNING IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY              
THAT WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
INDICATES CONSENSUS ON NOT ISSUING THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO                  
MARGINAL WIND.                                                                  
STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BEHIND            
THE FRONT.                                                                      
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TEENS TODAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD             
FRONT COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME COOLER                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE             
IN THE LOWER 70S COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. MIN                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S. FS                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE                
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AFTER              
15Z. ML                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING                 
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-                 
     042.                                                                       
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING                 
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.                                     
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1210 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE                     
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE                       
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.                                      
THE SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE                
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DISCUSSED IN THE              
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.                                                     
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND             
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING                
IMPACT FROPA WILL HAVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE COLDEST AIR               
WILL BE DIRECTED EAST OF THE AREA WHILE SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR                 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.              
295-305K PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW IN             
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SUPPORTS INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS BUT CONFIDENCE           
IN ADDING PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO LOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY                
SURGE INTO THE 70S WEST OF SFC TROUGH AXIS WED AFTERNOON WHERE                  
DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR            
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                               
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE                    
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE MID WEEK EXTRATROPICAL              
CYCLONE. THE GFS IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM IN             
THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION. THE GFS IS SLOWER BECAUSE IT SHOWS A VERY DEEP AND INTENSE              
CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB...WHICH SEAMS SUSPECT CONSIDERING THE 500MB                 
PATTERN LATELY. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR             
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT LESS AMPLIFIED GEM. AS A RESULT...THE                  
FORECAST INCLUDES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z                        
FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKER THAN THE GFS IS                    
ADVERTISING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUC13 SUGGEST                
RED FLAG CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED IN A LARGE PORTION OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RH VALUES APPEAR                       
LIKELY...WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.                         
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MIXING FORECAST AT PEAK HEATING...FEEL                      
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE 25 MPH CRITERIA FOR               
RED FLAG.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE                
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP                    
AFTER 15Z.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING                 
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-                 
     042.                                                                       
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING                 
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.                                     
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
335 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND                
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESET ITSELF           
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.                  
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK                
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN                 
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE S/WV AFFECTING THE CWA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
UA ANALYSIS SHOWS 55-60KT JET FROM 700-500MBS DIVING DOWN ACROSS                
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE TROF THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE               
IS PICKED UP WELL ON THE LATEST IR/WV SATL IMAGERY. SOME SNOW                   
SHOWERS SETTING OFF ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO                
THE S/WV.                                                                       
LATEST GFS AND SREF MATCHING UP W/THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE                   
RUC13. THEREFORE...STARTED OUT THE GRIDS W/THE RUC13 AS THE                     
BACKGROUND AND THEN LOADED IN THE GFS/SREF FOR POPS THIS                        
AFTERNOON. A COLD START TO THE MORNING W/MANY SITES ACROSS                      
NORTHERN MAINE BLO ZERO. CARIBOU SET A RECORD LOW ON THE 23RD                   
W/-6F WHICH WAS SET BEFORE MIDNIGHT.                                            
AIRMASS PRETTY DRY GIVEN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BLO                
ZERO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE 850MB ANAL INDICATING               
MOISTURE W/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 3 DEGS OR LESS OVER ONTARIO. THIS               
AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD TODAY W/CLOUDS INCREASING BY                  
18Z. INCREASED THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SET W/AREAL COVERAGE IN               
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY (40-50%). SNOW WILL BE OF A FINE NATURE                  
WILL ACCUMS NO MORE THAN AN INCH AT BEST AND THIS COULD BE PUSHING              
IT. USED A 12:1 RATIO AND BLENDED HPC W/THE GFS FOR QPF WHICH                   
LEADS TO AROUND .03-.05" LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE                
MONITORED TODAY. HPC QPF LOOKED A BIT OVERDONE AND THAT IS THE REASON           
FOR THE BLEND W/THE GFS AS IT IS RUNNING LIGHTER W/ITS QPF.                     
S/WV EXITS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING W/SKIES CLEARING PRETTY              
QUICKLY. CLR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER                 
VERY COLD NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH. DAYCREW/S TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT              
LOOKED GOOD AND DECIDED TO RUN W/THEM GIVING FAR NORTHERN AND                   
NORTHWESTERN AREAS -15F OR COLDER. CAR...PQI...HUL WILL MOST                    
LIKELY COME IN NEAR RECORD LOWS. WILL ADD THIS WORDING TO THE FCST              
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN COLD AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...               
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND TEMPS MODERATING IN           
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS BY AFTERNOON WILL RISE TO NEAR FREEZING              
OVER THE NORTH AND MID 30S DOWNEAST. WE`LL THEN BE WATCHING A CLIPPER           
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND REACHING          
QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO               
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY                  
MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED               
TO BE LIGHT AND WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 30S ROAD SURFACES WILL               
LIKELY JUST BE WET BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE LOW                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A RETURN OF COLDER AIR.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
A CHILLY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL LATE IN                 
THE WEEK...BUT NOT TO THE EXTREME THAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED THE LAST               
FEW DAYS. WEAK RIDGING IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BRING MODERATION           
TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT TIME NO LARGE STORM             
SYSTEMS ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS           
A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW              
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING SNOW OR MIXED                 
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. AT PRESENT TIME NEITHER OF THESE STORM                
SYSTEMS LOOK WELL ORGANIZED...BUT THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN LONG            
RANGE FORECASTING CAN BE ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING WITH THE CHANGE OF              
SEASONS MODULATING THE WEATHER PATTERN SO THIS COULD ALWAYS CHANGE.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION                 
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ESP FOR THE VSBYS THIS                
AFTERNOON W/THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                 
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT                     
TUESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW AND REMAIN IFR IN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND                
MVFR OVER THE NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE              
AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ATTM. SWELL BE GENERATED OUT THERE W/SEAS               
AROUND 3 FT WHICH ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE WNAWAVE. STARTED THE WAVE                  
HEIGHTS OUT A FOOT ABOVE WNAWAVE AND THEN DROP THEM BACK BY THE                 
AFTERNOON W/A LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZE.                                            
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT                
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE               
NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SNOW AMOUNT FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN             
CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT                    
RECENTLY CAME ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON WILL IMPACT THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE                   
DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS                            
MORNING...EXCEPT HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND              
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STUCK AROUND PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI AND SOUTHERN LOWER            
MI.                                                                             
TODAY...CUT BACK ON POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...KEWEENAW AND EAST OF              
MUNISING. THERE ARE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE KEWEENAW                          
PENINSULA...AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN CWA. KEPT                   
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY                
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.                                                         
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND                        
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. PCPN AMOUNTS ARE               
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WIDESPREAD SNOW UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY              
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IN LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST               
AND UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE EAST WITH THE LINGERING SYSTEM ARE                  
POSSIBLE ON TUE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT. THE              
SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE WEST HALF BY 06Z AND CONCENTRATE ON              
THE EAST HALF AFTER 06Z.                                                        
MODELS AGREE THAT A "DRY SLOT" WILL INTERFERE WITH PCPN FROM 12Z TO             
18Z...SO BACKED OFF POPS OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF ALONG THE WI                   
BORDER. KEPT CHC RAIN OR SNOW IN SOUTHERN PART OF CWA TUE AFTERNOON             
FOR NOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40F. HOWEVER...WITH               
THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW              
PRETTY QUICKLY. 850MB TEMPS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE AROUND             
-7C AND RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO -13C. WITH TEMPS THAT COLD...LES SHOULD             
LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                 
WEDNESDAY...GFS IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE LATEST RUN...BUT NEXT            
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW...KEPT CHC LES                 
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH HALF OF CWA.                                                
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH TRACK A MOISTURE-PACKED LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. IN COORDINATION WITH GRB AND               
DLH...DECREASED POPS TO AROUND 30 FOR THU AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR                     
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE             
REGION. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG S TO             
SW FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY LATE EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN CONCERN IS ON SRLY GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE                
TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES REGION. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SW             
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES                   
CLOSER. WITH ASSISTANCE OF MAX PRESSURE FALLS PASSING ACROSS THE                
AREA...SRLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES BY LATE EVENING OVER            
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE               
NEARSHORE WATERS E OF MUNISING...ESPECIALLY AROUND GRAND MARAIS                 
WHICH TYPICALLY EXPERIENCES STRONG WINDS WITH SRLY FLOW. GRADIENT               
WILL SLACKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR GALES TO END BY LATE TUE MORNING. AS              
THE LOW HEADS E TUE NIGHT...A PERIOD OF NW GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR              
DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25KT FROM WED AFTN THRU FRI.                          
OVER THE NRN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS (EXCLUDING THE BAY OF               
GREEN BAY)...SETUP LOOKS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR GALES TONIGHT INTO            
TUE MORNING AS TRACK OF MAX PRES FALLS JUST N OF LAKE MICHIGAN                  
PROVIDES AN ADDED BOOST TO WINDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT                  
HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT BTWN ABOUT 06Z              
AND 12Z TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...NW WINDS TUE NIGHT SHOULD                 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE                                                          
 LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUE               
  LSZ250-251-266-267.                                                           
 LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUE                  
  LMZ248-250.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MRC                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
125 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                              
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RIDGING ACROSS LAKE                           
SUPERIOR...EXTENDING FROM THE MAIN SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.                 
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS MOVING SE ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND NVA MOVING OVER            
THE LAKE COMBINED WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION /SFC DWPTS IN             
NW ONTARIO WELL BELOW ZERO/ SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE LAKE              
EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE                  
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY THIS EVENING              
COMBINED WITH LOW LAKE-AIR STABILITY /850MB TEMP -16C/...WILL                   
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS IN A SMALL AREA FROM SHOT POINT EAST              
TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE RUC SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS             
THE WINDS BACK AROUND. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD HOLD LESS             
THAN AN INCH.                                                                   
AS THE WINDS BACK AROUND TONIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE              
KEWEENAW PENINUSLA WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE             
FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE NORTH OF HOUGHTON...AND HAVE OPTED TO                
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH              
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY              
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY.                           
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD NIGHT ACROSS UPPER             
MICHIGAN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW COVER IN SOME                       
PLACES...AM THINKING THAT SOME INLAND AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP TO              
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TONIGHT. IF IT CAN CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECAST               
TEMPS COULD DROP MORE THAN THAT.                                                
MONDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY              
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. WITH THE W-SW FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF             
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HOUGHTON ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL            
/ONLY AROUND -9C/ AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONG.                 
NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY A SMALL POP THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION.            
WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN/ IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST              
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. MANY PLACES WILL BE                
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY SO IT SHOULD BE PLEASANT ALTHOUGH A            
LITTLE CHILLY WITH HIGHS 30-35.                                                 
.LONG TERM (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                                
FOCUS FOR MON NIGHT-TUE TURNS TO TIMING/IMPACT OF CLIPPER SHRTWV                
MOVING ESE FM SCNTRL CAN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF ASSOC SFC LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO                 
TRACK ACROSS NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE MORNING AND THEN MOVES             
NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING FAIRLY              
IMPRESSIVE UPR DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 120+ KT H3 JET             
MAX ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE DPVA AND VIGOROUS 850-500 MB Q-VECT CONV.             
SHARP ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 285-290K SFCS NOTED MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SHORTWAVE...TRANSITIONING TO DESCENT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE                
OVER WRN HALF COUNTIES BY 12Z TUE. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK OF THE LOW            
FAVORS THE NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES FOR THE HEAVIER/MORE SUSTAINED               
PCPN AND QPF FIELDS GENERALLY BARE THIS OUT. THE ONE THING THAT MAY             
LIMIT PCPN/SNOW AMOUNTS IS FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE/SFC               
LOW. STILL WITHMIXING RATIOS OF 3G/KG ADVECTING OVER THE AREA AND               
6HR OF MORE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THE FAR ERN                   
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY PUSH ADVISORY TOTALS WITH 3 INCHES OF MORE OF            
SNOW POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TUE MORNING ALONG            
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WRAPAROUND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF THE               
LOW. WOULD EXPECT THE REST OF THE CWA THE GENERALLY FALL IN THE 2-4"            
RANGE FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM.                                       
EXPECT PCPN TO GENERALLY DIMINISH BY TUE AFTN BEFORE ANOTHER                    
SHORTWAVE RETURNS TUE EVENING AND BRINGS A REINFORCING COLD SHOT AND            
CHC OF ENHANCEMENT TO LES. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PCPN WL FALL AS SN...             
BUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR SCNTRL AREAS IN DOWNSLOPING NW              
FLOW LLVLS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW WITH SOME RAIN. ANOTHER                  
CONCERN FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING WL BE WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING             
AREAS OVER THE SRN TIER AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GFS FCST               
SDNGS FOR MNM AND ESC SHOWS 35-40 KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR AT              
BOTH MNM AND ESC. WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW COULD REACH 30 KT BY TUE              
EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                                  
IN THE WAKE OF TUE CLIPPER...EXPECT LES TO BE ONGOING TUE NGT INTO              
WED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C MOVING OVER THE LAKE. HI PRES              
RDG AXIS WILL THEN MOVES OVHD WED NIGHT AND SHUT OFF THE LES.                   
STILL PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE                
PLAINS BY THU/FRI. HOWEVER...NCEP FAVORED BLEND OF 00Z GFS SOLN AND             
ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH NOW TAKES LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES               
AND OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT AND FRI. ECMWF HAS BEEN EVEN FARTHER E                
WITH THIS SYSTEM THE LAST FEW RUNS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPR MI IS               
THAT HEAVIER PCPN WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. BEST              
CHCS FOR PCPN THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WILL BE SCNTRL AND EAST WHERE             
I HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHC POPS. ALSO WITH MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK...IT              
LOOKS LIKE PCPN TYPE WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT MIX              
WITH LIQUID/FREEZING PCPN FROM PREV FCST. BIG DIFFERENCE IN 850 MB              
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ECMWF MUCH                 
WARMER THAN MORE AMPLIFIED SOLN OF GFS WHICH MORE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD            
BEHIND THE LOW. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD GFS TEMPS AND KEPT LOW CHC             
POPS FOR LES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND IN AREAS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR                     
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE             
REGION. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG S TO             
SW FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY LATE EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE FCST ISSUANCE)...                                        
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS AND WAVES              
SHOULD RELAX QUITE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM                
APPROACHES ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS              
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT MON AFTN AND TO GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
TUE. BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND THE NEARSHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE CLIPPER PASSES              
BY TUE INTO TUE GALES OR NEAR GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE                   
EVENING. W-NW WINDS NEAR 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING                
BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MRD                                                       
LONG TERM...VOSS                                                                
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...MRD                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1000 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED BUT                    
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN            
IS SIMPLIFIED TO GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING UPSTREAM             
OVER THE WEST. TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS ANCHORED BY THE POLAR VORTEX            
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN AXIS RUNNING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THEN DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE            
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY            
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MIDDLE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MAKE AN UNEVENTFUL                
PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                
THE RIDGING FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WEST RUNS ALONG AN AXIS FROM            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.                          
AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC FRONT IS NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE                 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NORTHERLY               
FLOW BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS DELIVERING QUITE A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS            
TO THE REGION. STRONG 1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DROPPED DOWN             
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE MOVING EAST TOWARD OUR            
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY             
RUNNING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                    
AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. LARGE            
SWATH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND A                
120KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA                
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS JET ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE            
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FORECAST AREA                
WIDE...OTHER THAN A FEW CU DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM            
KDHN TO KABY UNDER THE COOLEST MID LEVEL AIR AND BEST SHORTWAVE                 
ENERGY. 850MB TEMPS BEHIND LAST NIGHTS FRONT DROPPING TO AROUND -2C             
OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND AS LOW AS -4C TO THE NORTH. VERY UNUSUAL            
AIRMASS FOR LATE MARCH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE TEMPS ARE AROUND 3.0              
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. IN CLEARER                
TERMS...THIS MEAN THAT THERE IS ONLY AROUND A 4% PROBABILITY OF                 
OCCURRENCE FOR THIS COLD AN AIRMASS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. THE RESULT            
WILL BE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT             
WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT            
FEW HOURS.                                                                      
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD                 
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSE                     
PROXIMITY WIND WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND COMBINE WITH THE COOL AND             
DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS IS                
GOING TO RESULT IN A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH. FREEZE WATCHES             
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT              
THIS TIME AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON             
FORECAST PACKAGE. NOT EXPECTING A BLANKET FREEZING SCENARIO BUT                 
CERTAINLY NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS UNDER RADIATIONAL SETUPS WILL               
HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW 32 FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE            
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. URBAN CENTERS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM            
OUT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THE SUBTLETIES OF RADIATIONAL            
COOLING SAY THAT NO AREA SHOULD COMPLETELY LET THEIR GUARD DOWN IN              
DEALING WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION. OF NOTE THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH             
25TH AT THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT IS 28F SET IN 1968.                    
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.                 
MID-LEVEL COOL POOL EXITS EAST EARLY IN THE DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS                
REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN 4C AND 7C BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE STILL                   
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE                
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE LACK OF WIND               
ALLOWING IT TO FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN              
IT WILL THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS              
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL                  
PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS ALL TERMINALS               
WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. WINDS WILL            
CLOCK AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY AND NOT AS STRONG TUESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH            
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. SEAS AS THE               
BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 8FT. GUIDANCE              
IN AGREEMENT OF A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS (POSSIBLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME) BEFORE             
COMING BACK UP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP               
THE CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT GOING DESPITE THE BRIEF LETUP              
TO AVOID CONFUSION. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY               
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST TO THE            
NORTH. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A NORMAL             
OCCURRENCE UNDER EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER THIS INCREASE LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM            
OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD RED FLAG EVENT TODAY...DUE TO              
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.                 
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TUESDAY...THE RELATIVE                  
HUMIDITY WILL BE JUST AS LOW SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY                  
AGAIN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                 
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...                 
     HENRY...HOUSTON.                                                           
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                                  
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...                     
     HOUSTON.                                                                   
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...                    
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...                  
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                 
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...                       
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...                     
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...                    
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                  
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                       
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...                    
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...                   
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...                      
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...                 
     TURNER...WORTH.                                                            
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...                       
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...                     
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...                    
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                  
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                       
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...                 
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM           
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...                
     CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...                   
     GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...                     
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...                 
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                  
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM            
     EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...                
     CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                    
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO                
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                    
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL                
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...                    
     COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...                 
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60                
     NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60                   
     NM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
AVIATION...GOREE                                                                
FIRE WX...FOURNIER                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
526 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW IS NORTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN                        
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH                
WED NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS                  
MORNING AND SHIFT INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A                 
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING               
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN                
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL                  
KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST.                                     
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEAL WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT FIRE                
WEATHER WATCH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BY BOTH THE NAM/RUC ARE LOW             
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO JUSTIFY A WARNING. THE GFS HAS HIGHER RH             
VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITERIA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER THE WIND              
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH COMING OVERHEAD DURING             
MAX HEATING DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG. ACCORDING THE                  
BUFKIT DATA THE MAX WIND THAT CAN BE MIXED DOWN WOULD BE 15KTS OR               
ABOUT 17 MPH. THIS IS NOT QUITE UP TO THE 25 MPH REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH             
THE WATCH COULD BE CANCELED...PLAN TO KEEP IT GOING AND THE DAY                 
SHIFT CAN ISSUE THE WARNING IN THE MORNING IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY              
THAT WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
INDICATES CONSENSUS ON NOT ISSUING THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO                  
MARGINAL WIND.                                                                  
STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BEHIND            
THE FRONT.                                                                      
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TEENS TODAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD             
FRONT COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME COOLER                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE             
IN THE LOWER 70S COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. MIN                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S. FS                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THE              
NEXT 24 HOURS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST               
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z.                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING                 
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-                 
     042.                                                                       
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING                 
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.                                     
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS                
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1015 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING                    
NICELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE CAA USHERING IN               
A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. 12Z KLCH                
SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WELL WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.29 INCHES AND A                  
NICE NORTHERLY BACKING WIND PROFILE. DESPITE ALL OF THIS...WITH                 
FULL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING UP QUICKLY WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS                
FOR TODAY UP A TAD...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONES. REST OF               
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MSAS ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE                    
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL                    
WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL EXTEND SCA THROUGH 1 PM FOR THE                  
OUTER WATERS. 12Z RUC INDICATES WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS                
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA...AND DO NOT                    
EXPECT TO EXTEND FLAGS PAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.                          
&&                                                                              
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY REACHES THE SOUTHEAST              
US COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WHAT STARTS OUT AS COOLER THAN NORMAL              
TEMPS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS WINDS                   
SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION               
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE           
WORKWEEK. THE NEXT THREAT FOR RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW...ONLY               
AROUND 20 PERCENT...BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO SAG                
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BUT LOSES STEAM             
AND STALLS OUT OR WEAKENS. WILL BE WATCHING MODEL TRENDS ON THIS SYSTEM         
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF THIS RAIN THREAT CAN BE TAKEN ANY MORE               
SERIOUSLY.                                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY.                                                   
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL ALLOW SCA TO RUN THROUGH 15Z AND EXPIRE TODAY. STARTING TO                 
SEE NOCTURNAL TREND OF HIGHER WINDS LATE AT NIGHT.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  67  45  72  58 /   0   0   0  10                                          
KBPT  67  47  72  59 /   0   0   0  10                                          
KAEX  63  39  74  54 /   0   0   0  10                                          
KLFT  65  41  72  54 /   0   0   0  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES:                                                                     
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING TO 20                 
     NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING            
     TO 20 NM...AND WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO                      
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING TO 20 NM.                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT)                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SNOW AMOUNT FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN             
CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT                    
RECENTLY CAME ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON WILL IMPACT THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE                   
DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS                            
MORNING...EXCEPT HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND              
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STUCK AROUND PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI AND SOUTHERN LOWER            
MI.                                                                             
TODAY...CUT BACK ON POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...KEWEENAW AND EAST OF              
MUNISING. THERE ARE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE KEWEENAW                          
PENINSULA...AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN CWA. KEPT                   
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY                
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.                                                         
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND                        
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. PCPN AMOUNTS ARE               
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WIDESPREAD SNOW UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY              
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IN LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST               
AND UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE EAST WITH THE LINGERING SYSTEM ARE                  
POSSIBLE ON TUE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT. THE              
SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE WEST HALF BY 06Z AND CONCENTRATE ON              
THE EAST HALF AFTER 06Z.                                                        
MODELS AGREE THAT A "DRY SLOT" WILL INTERFERE WITH PCPN FROM 12Z TO             
18Z...SO BACKED OFF POPS OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF ALONG THE WI                   
BORDER. KEPT CHC RAIN OR SNOW IN SOUTHERN PART OF CWA TUE AFTERNOON             
FOR NOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40F. HOWEVER...WITH               
THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW              
PRETTY QUICKLY. 850MB TEMPS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE AROUND             
-7C AND RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO -13C. WITH TEMPS THAT COLD...LES SHOULD             
LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                 
WEDNESDAY...GFS IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE LATEST RUN...BUT NEXT            
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW...KEPT CHC LES                 
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH HALF OF CWA.                                                
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH TRACK A MOISTURE-PACKED LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. IN COORDINATION WITH GRB AND               
DLH...DECREASED POPS TO AROUND 30 FOR THU AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX AND KSAW THRU THE AFTN. AHEAD OF            
APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM TONIGHT...STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP.            
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FCST...IT`S              
QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN JUST MIXED ENOUGH DOWN TO             
THE SFC TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND SHEAR LAYER. EXPECT A                  
ROUGHLY 3-5HR PERIOD OF SN AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS               
AND IFR VIS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN CONCERN IS ON SRLY GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE                
TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES REGION. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SW             
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES                   
CLOSER. WITH ASSISTANCE OF MAX PRESSURE FALLS PASSING ACROSS THE                
AREA...SRLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES BY LATE EVENING OVER            
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE               
NEARSHORE WATERS E OF MUNISING...ESPECIALLY AROUND GRAND MARAIS                 
WHICH TYPICALLY EXPERIENCES STRONG WINDS WITH SRLY FLOW. GRADIENT               
WILL SLACKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR GALES TO END BY LATE TUE MORNING. AS              
THE LOW HEADS E TUE NIGHT...A PERIOD OF NW GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR              
DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25KT FROM WED AFTN THRU FRI.                          
OVER THE NRN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS (EXCLUDING THE BAY OF               
GREEN BAY)...SETUP LOOKS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR GALES TONIGHT INTO            
TUE MORNING AS TRACK OF MAX PRES FALLS JUST N OF LAKE MICHIGAN                  
PROVIDES AN ADDED BOOST TO WINDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT                  
HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT BTWN ABOUT 06Z              
AND 12Z TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...NW WINDS TUE NIGHT SHOULD                 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE                                                          
 LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUE               
  LSZ250-251-266-267.                                                           
 LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUE                  
  LMZ248-250.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MRC                                                                
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1124 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA                
TODAY... THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD              
BACK OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... CONTINUING THE CHILLY                
TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...                 
BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...                                                         
KRAX RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING                
SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED ACROSS              
THE TRIAD AND AROUND ROXBORO EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY RAIN              
SPRINKLES AROUND THE TRIANGLE. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING MID-LEVEL S/W...COINCIDENT WITH THE                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM              
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.              
THE RUC DID A GOOD JOB EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH INDICATING GOOD                
925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ALONG THE            
LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR...THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE ASSOCIATED              
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING WITH            
FURTHER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THUS EXPECT A LULL FOR THE               
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL LATER THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY COLD POOL              
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAVE. -CBL                                            
THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND ASSOCIATED INSOLATION WILL SET THE STAGE               
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A                  
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM              
THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPROACHES.              
STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100 METERS/12               
HRS AND THE APPROACH OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL (H5 TEMPS            
B/W -30 AND -35 C) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD              
THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS RATHER               
LIMITED (PWATS RANGING FROM .25 TO .50" W/E ACROSS THE CWA)...                  
BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT              
AND STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL OVERCOME THE                
OVERALL RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN. IN FACT... THE SHOWERS OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH SIMILAR PWATS SUNDAY ARE A               
GOOD INDICATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THE                  
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO                
NEAR 40 MPH... AS MID LEVEL DRY ENTRAINMENT AND SUB CLOUD DIABATIC              
COOLING WITH INVERTED-V MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ENHANCE                   
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. SUCH WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM RDU               
WESTWARD... WHERE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL               
DEVELOP WITH THE EXPECTED PARTIAL CLEARING... WHILE THE LINGERING               
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL STUNT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH LOW LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES IN THE EAST. LASTLY... A FEW WET FLAKES COULD MIX IN                
WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS IF THEY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING              
HOURS... WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT                  
SOMETHING OTHER THAN ALL LIQUID. ANY FLAKES WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT                
GIVEN THEIR FLEETING NATURE.-MWS                                                
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE OBSERVED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AT GSO               
THIS MORNING WAS 1294M. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL             
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE             
OVER EASTERN NC AND THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH SHARPENINIG               
MID-LEVEL VORT...HAVE ELECTED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE 48-52                
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE TEMPERATURES              
COULD STILL BE TOO WARM IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SCATTER OUT BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON. -BLS/CBL                                                       
AFTER LINGERING AND DISSIPATING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT... EXPECT              
CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH                  
OVERNIGHT...AS HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD               
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT LOW TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30              
NW TO MID 30S SE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
AS OF 245 AM                                                                    
MONDAY...                                                                       
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL                    
BECOME ZONAL OVER OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS                  
SLIDES EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON... AND ALLOWS A WEAK SOUTH                        
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM FROM ABOUT            
-6 TO 0 C FROM 12Z TUES TO 00Z WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN H85 WARM              
FRONT. THOUGH WE PROBABLY WILL NOT REALIZE THE FULL DEGREE OF WARM              
ADVECTION... HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO LOWER            
60S SW... UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE              
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO             
THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND RESULT IN WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL               
FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO                
VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT STALLS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID             
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE            
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE 30 YR AVERAGE              
(AROUND 40 DEGREES) WEDNESDAY MORNING... THEN ABOUT 5 ABOVE THURSDAY            
MORNING.  -MWS                                                                  
AT THE SURFACE... A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF NC BEGINNING             
THURSDAY... WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING             
A WARM WSW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WE               
WILL BUMP UP HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THURSDAY. -BADGETT                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
S OF 1115 AM MONDAY...                                                          
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A MODERATE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE             
WESTERN CONUS AND FLAT RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.  A SURFACE RIDGE               
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF STREAM ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO                   
RESULTING IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH             
PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD YIELD ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S            
TO AROUND 80.                                                                   
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MODELS ARE REASONABLY TOGETHER IN SHOWING A COLD                
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT. BUT THERE EXISTS A 6-12              
HOUR UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC                 
GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE GFS AND AMONG OTHER MEMBERS OF               
THE MODEL SUITE. A PREVAILING WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL             
FLOW SUGGESTS MINIMAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE                
MOUNTAINS AND ONLY A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE RAH CWA WITH              
THE FRONT.  POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCE RANGE OF            
20-30 PERCENT...MAINLY FOR SAT.  THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN              
THE PREFRONTAL SECTOR FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.  TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE IN TRANSITION FOR SAT AND WITH CLOUD COVER GREATEST TO THE              
NW... HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NW TO NEAR 80 SE.                         
SAT NIGHT-MON...MODELS SHOW CONFLUENCE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN                
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH COOLER                
DRIER AIR QUICKLY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.  THE              
REPLACING AIRMASS IS MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM CONTINENTAL TRAVERSING              
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO NC.  THIS              
SHOULD MEAN COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN.  BY                    
MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A LARGE MERIDIONAL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST               
FROM A 1035-1040 MB CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES.  THIS            
SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT                    
POSSIBLY CIRRUS OR MID CLOUD ADVANCEMENT FROM A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH              
IN THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN               
NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS 65-70.  -RFG            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...                                                          
PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND RAIN MIXED WITH WET SNOW CONTINUE              
TO REACH THE GROUND IN THE KINT/KGSO AREAS OF THE NW PIEDMONT. RADAR            
RETURNS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWERS                
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION AS OF 145 AM. THERE                 
CONTINUED TO BE MORE PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH               
AND SOUTHWEST OF KINT/KGSO... WHICH WILL AFFECT THOSE AREAS THROUGH             
AT LEAST 09Z. COOLING ALOFT HAS LED TO A CHANCE OVER TO WET SNOW IN             
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS... AND A MIX WITH SNOW INTO THE NW PIEDMONT              
(KINT/KGSO) IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SHOWERS. THIS PROCESS WILL                 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... THE PRECIPITATION RATES             
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH... AND THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL               
REMAIN ABOVE 32 PRECLUDING ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.                           
IT APPEARS THE 00Z/24 MARCH GFS WAS VERIFYING A BIT BETTER IN THE               
LOCATION OF THE CURRENT LIGHT QPF. THIS LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY              
SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD KBUY AND KDAN THROUGH DAYBREAK... AS IT                 
DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WE WILL HAVE TO CARRY SOME IFR            
CIGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY OVER THE TRIAD REGION THROUGH AROUND                  
DAYBREAK... LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR               
CIGS LIKELY FOR A TIME AT KRDU/KRWI TODAY AS WELL. THE LIGHT SHOWERS            
SHOULD REDUCE VSBY AT TIME OVER THE KINT/KGSO AREAS INTO THE MVFR               
CATEGORY THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.              
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE            
KINT/KGSO/KRDU AREAS... BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6+.                             
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
WFO RALEIGH WILL START THE 2008 SPRING FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WITH 4AM            
FORECAST PACKAGE ON MARCH 30TH. THIS DATE IS APPROXIMATELY A WEEK               
EARLIER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THAN THE AVERAGE DATE FOR THE LAST                  
SPRING FREEZE (APR 9TH)...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
EXPERIENCED IN FEBRUARY (4 TO 5 DEGREES F) AND WITH MARCH CURRENTLY             
RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT                                                              
NEAR TERM...BLS/CBL/MWS                                                         
SHORT TERM...MWS                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...BADGETT                                                              
CLIMATE...CBL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1055 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND POTENTIAL AND PCPN              
CHANCES.                                                                        
SURFACE LOW POSITION ON TRACK WITH GFS INITIALIZING BEST BUT MODELS             
CLOSE. FEATURE STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE SE AND TRACK JUST NORTH OF               
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWING WEAK RETURNS                  
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PRETTY DRY COLUMN SO            
RETURNS LIKELY ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO SEEING A PRETTY GOOD DRY             
SLOT WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OF FA LATER THIS AM INTO                 
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT SEEING MUCH IN THE              
WAY OF PCPN UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW APPROACHES.               
WILL BACK OFF ON POPS UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL               
ALSO BE A BIG CHALLENGE. PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING                
HOWEVER STEEP INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING WARMER AIR DOWN. ALWAYS A             
CONCERN ABOUT BRIEF WARMING AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSES AND QUICK               
WARM UP WITH WSHFT. FOR THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES AS IS. WIND                
WILL ALSO NEED WATCHING. RUC SHOWING POTENTIAL WITH MIXED LAYER                 
DEVELOPING HOWEVER GFS AND NAM KEEP SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE. STILL             
LOOKS WINDY HOWEVER WILL NEED TO BREAK DOWN INVERSION TO GET BIG                
WINDS WHICH AT THIS POINT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY BUT WILL MONITOR.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN -SN LIKELY NOT TO AFFECT FA UNTIL LATE                   
AFTERNOON EVENING AND PRIMARILY ACROSS NW MN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
340 PM MDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
...WARM/MILD AND BREEZY/WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS...                
...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL DEVELOPING...                  
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED THE WESTERLY FLOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES               
AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS HAD +10C TO +15C              
24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES VERTICALLY FROM 850MB THROUGH 500MB                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE WELL ADVERTISED WARMER AIR IS HERE.               
PERIODIC THIN SCT-BKN HIGH MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING.            
THE WIND HAS BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE WITH A POSSIBLE ROTOR ON EAST SIDE            
OF PIKES PEAK AS COLORADO SPRINGS WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN ALL OVER              
THE PLACE. BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...PERIODICALLY...IN            
GAP FLOW AREAS LIKE THE MIDDLE TO LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY FROM CANON              
CITY TO PUEBLO TO LA JUNTA. AND LA VETA PASS TO WALSENBURG. THE                 
OTHER BIG CHALLENGE HAS BEEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WITH BELOW OF VALUES            
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PLACES WHERE THE WIND PICKS UP                 
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. SOME AREAS HAVE                
BEEN FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG WEATHER CRITERIA ALONG THE I-25                     
CORRIDOR...BUT THIS AREA EXPERIENCED NEARLY WIDESPREAD WETTING                  
PRECIPITATION 48 HOURS AGO. THE DEAD FINER FUELS...1 HOUR                       
GRASSES/WEEDS/BRUSH...ARE STILL CURING.                                         
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE WARM WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD                 
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS            
TO HAVE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS MAY KEEP BLOWING ACROSS              
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE EAST FACING SLOPES...AND GAP               
FLOW AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING        
AND MAY BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE ALONG THE "BANANA-BELT" AROUND             
6K-9K FT MSL GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE              
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG VALLEY EDGES TONIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE A            
BIGGER CHALLENGE IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WITH A LARGE POTENTIAL            
DROP CONSIDERING DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE                   
EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SURFACE DEW POINT RECOVERY...THOUGH.              
TUESDAY...WESTERLY WARM FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.            
STILL HINTS OF A VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST             
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS DURING TUESDAY MORNING...BUT MIXING             
OUT AS THE WESTERLY SURFACE/PBL FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL CRITICAL                
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE. FINER FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO               
CURE/DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR. SURFACE DEW POINTS               
AND WINDS WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE AGAIN. PLAYED THE DEW POINTS                
SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HUMIDITY             
VALUES LESS THAN 20%...AND HAINES 4-5 WILL BE IN PLACE. THE WIND                
WILL BE CRUCIAL IF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE SOME             
LOCAL SPOTS THAT BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE MINIMUM 3              
HOUR TEMPORAL RULE...BUT TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE. AREA FORECAST              
DISCUSSIONS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS ALREADY HIGHLIGHT THE                
POTENTIAL HAZARD...SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING FIRE HEADLINES FOR THE              
NEAR MARGINAL EVENT. ACTUALLY...LOOKING FOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS              
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY. MET MOS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO WINDY              
AND WARM...STAYED CLOSER TO THE CURRENT DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE               
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. METZE                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)                                                          
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES            
ACROSS THE STATE WITH A STRONG JET STREAM PERSISTING ACROSS THE PAC             
NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER. NAM AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT                    
INDICATING WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS                   
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS                
OVERNIGHT WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING BREEZY            
CONDITIONS AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS               
AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS. LEE TROUGH KICKS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE                
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS INDICATING H7 TEMPS              
BETWEEN 0C AND 4C AND WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO H6...SHOULD SEE BREEZY             
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY WELL ABOVE              
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE DEEP                 
MIXING...SHOULD SEE DEW PTS TANK ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AND                 
ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR               
THE POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF              
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THROUGH               
THIS PERIOD AS NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT            
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND LEE            
TROUGHING AHEAD OF SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS               
THE PLAINS AGAIN. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY              
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY OOZE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD THROUGH THE LATE             
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OWNING TO A HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES             
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL             
MTS WITH GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND HAVE             
KEPT ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE PALMER DVD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                
FRONT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT            
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS WITH LIFT ALONG BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE              
CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES IN              
PLACE ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                 
SATURDAY-MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY BECOMES INCREASINGLY             
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT                
BASIN ON SUNDAY...OWNING TO ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE               
AREA SUNDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SATURDAY WITH GFS INDICATING             
SOME WAA PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THOUGH             
HAVE KEPT POPS SILENT ATTM. GREAT BASIN SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT             
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY...BRINGING IN COOLER                 
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. -MW                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION....VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL               
CONTINUE FOR KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS SITES. METZE                                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/23                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
410 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED               
BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
PATTERN IS SIMPLIFIED TO GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING              
UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST. TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS ANCHORED BY THE                
POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN AXIS RUNNING SOUTHWARD                
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THEN DOWN THE SPINE OF THE                    
APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. POTENT PIECE OF MID               
LEVEL ENERGY IS MAKING AN UNEVENTFUL PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RIDGING FURTHER UPSTREAM             
ACROSS THE WEST RUNS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES              
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.                                                     
AT THE SURFACE...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DELIVER A COOL AND                 
DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION. STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS              
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE MOVING               
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
THE AREA CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH                   
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND TEENS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                               
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER              
THIS EVENING. A FEW CU ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM KDHN TO KABY              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLEST MID LEVEL AIR (500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS                
-30C) AND BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET               
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS                  
BEHIND LAST NIGHTS FRONT HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND -2C OVER OUR                    
SOUTHERN ZONES AND AS LOW AS -4C TO THE NORTH. VERY UNUSUAL AIRMASS             
FOR LATE MARCH ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE TEMPS ARE AROUND 3.0 STANDARD             
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IN CLEARER TERMS...THIS MEAN THAT THERE IS              
ONLY AROUND A 4% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR THIS COLD AN AIRMASS             
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.                                                           
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD                 
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSE                     
PROXIMITY...WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND COMBINE WITH THE COOL              
AND DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS IS            
GOING TO RESULT IN A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH. FREEZE WARNINGS            
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST             
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A BLANKET            
FREEZE SCENARIO BUT CERTAINLY NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS UNDER                   
RADIATIONAL SETUPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW               
32F FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
URBAN CENTERS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE                       
30S...HOWEVER THE SUBTLETIES OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SAY THAT NO AREA            
SHOULD COMPLETELY LET THEIR GUARD DOWN IN DEALING WITH SENSITIVE                
VEGETATION. OF NOTE THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 25TH AT THE TALLAHASSEE            
REGIONAL AIRPORT IS 28F SET IN 1968.                                            
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY.                   
MID-LEVEL COOL POOL EXITS EAST EARLY IN THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL FLOW             
BECOMING MUCH MORE ZONAL AND WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN             
4C AND 7C BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE STILL EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL                  
HIGHS...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. THE             
BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE LACK OF WIND ALLOWING IT TO FEEL                     
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY THAN IT HAS THIS PAST AFTERNOON.                
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR              
ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HOWEVER THE COOLEST PART OF THE              
AIRMASS WILL HAVE EXITED BY THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE              
DROP QUITE AS LOW AS TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MIDDLE AND UPPER            
30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE COAST. WITH A BIT              
HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MIGHT                 
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FROST TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.            
FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING            
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE                     
SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE 70S. EXCEPTIONS WILL            
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL HELP              
KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM                 
PORTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.             
SURFACE RIDGING AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO                 
FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES            
UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER             
80S. THIS IS A MORE TYPICAL MID APRIL PATTERN...BUT IT WON`T PERSIST            
AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER              
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.                                                     
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW...OWING TO THE DIFFERENCES THAT              
EXIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EURO...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.               
THE 24/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL                
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME...WHEREAS THE OPERATIONAL GFS               
AND 23/12Z EURO STALL THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH OR BARELY BRING            
IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL WEIGHT FORECAST                 
TOWARD PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO             
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS MAKES MORE SENSE THAN INDICATING A                  
STALLING BOUNDARY GIVEN ALL THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.                
THIS NETS 20 POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES                    
DIMINISHING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. HOPEFULLY...FUTURE MODEL RUNS             
WILL YIELD BETTER CLARITY ON THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESS OF THIS                  
SYSTEM.                                                                         
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR              
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEARING 80 DEGREES WITH SOME AREAS EXCEEDING              
THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS              
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL                  
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS ALL TERMINALS              
WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY OVER 10KTS DURING LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME              
GUSTS. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY AND NOT AS STRONG               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS INTO              
TONIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD            
PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE. WINDS AND                
SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES             
CENTERED OVER OR NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST              
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID WEEK WITH FLOW COMING AROUND TO             
THE SOUTHEAST                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS                 
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE              
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DRY AIR IN             
PLACE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY             
OF WIDESPREAD LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.              
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. THE HIGH              
SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME                    
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD. HOWEVER...CONTINUED                 
WARMING TEMPS STILL MAY ALLOW FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL             
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND TO REACH DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES                
WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  31  66  35  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  37  64  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       32  66  37  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       31  66  36  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     32  66  38  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   32  67  37  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM 12                 
     PM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FOLLOWING                        
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                           
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                           
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                                  
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.                           
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING AND FROM 1 PM                 
     TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...           
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...           
     DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...              
     MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...             
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                    
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                    
     GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                         
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY              
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...                       
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...                     
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...                    
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...                  
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                       
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...                    
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...                    
     GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...                         
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...                      
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.                                            
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/             
     TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL                   
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...                     
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...                  
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                         
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR              
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...                     
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING AND               
     FROM /11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR              
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...                   
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY              
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...                        
     GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...                  
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...                 
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO                
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                    
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL                
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...                    
     COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM                  
     20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20                
     TO 60 NM.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE                                                   
LONG TERM...GODSEY                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                   
232 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A              
LOOK AT THE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE 24/18Z RUC BUFKIT                 
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN WINDS INTO THE WIND ADVISORY                  
RANGE IS QUITE PROBABLE ACROSS THE FLATTER TERRAIN AREAS. MIXED                 
LAYER WINDS REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL              
BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY.                                             
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS/      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS                          
INFLUENCING NORTH AMERICA. THE FIRST IS A POLAR VORTEX EAST OF                  
HUDSON BAY AND THE SECOND IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MEAN FLOW               
PATTERN HAS BEEN TO ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE FAST FLOW BENEATH THESE LOWS. AS A                
RESULT...MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE REMAINED NORTH               
OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                           
THE FORECAST OF 5 DAY AVERAGED 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS THIS PATTERN                
BREAKING DOWN SO THAT BY DAY 5 AN UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX EXISTS               
OVER NORTHERN CANADA WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48                    
STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BY THE END OF                 
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
KRC                                                                             
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.                                 
THE 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN SOME GENERAL                    
AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA                     
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THAT                 
SAID...GFS/NAM STALL THE FRONT OVER KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES               
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA. DPROG/DT HAS SHOWN A TREND OF THE                  
FRONT STALLING FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN.  AS A                         
RESULT...THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION SEEMS MOST APPROPRIATE.                           
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
UP TO 500 J/KG TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND                   
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE SAME AREA. THINK THIS IS ENOUGH TO                  
WARRANT A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.          
PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                              
AT THIS TIME...SHEAR/CAPE PARAMETERS INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY                 
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY              
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. SHOULD THE TREND OF THE FRONT STALLING                     
FURTHER NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS COULD AFFECT THE                   
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                     
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THEN EXITS                
QUICKLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST                 
AREA. A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                   
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                     
/ELEVATED CONVECTION/ SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FORECAST                   
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS RATHER LOW.                  
KRC                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS.                                                            
IN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OTHERWISE                  
VFR CONDITIONS. STEEPENING LEE TROF OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL YIELD                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 28-35KT THIS PM. LOW- LEVEL JET TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS PROG COLD              
FRONT ARRIVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUES AM...WHICH WILL               
SWITCH WINDS TO A N-NERLY COMPONENT BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.                         
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR KSZ034-KS
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW (WITH             
A 120-130KT JET NEAR 200MB FROM NRN OREGON INTO WRN MONTANA)...AND              
TROUGHING FROM ERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL                  
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING THROUGH THE ZONAL             
FLOW AREA...EXTENDING W OF OREGON INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.            
THIS WESTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ROCKIES...IN COMBINATION WITH            
DPVA FROM A SHRTWV ALONG THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...HAS                  
RESULTED IN 996MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR REGINA SASKATCHEWAN. WARM AIR               
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 3C AT BIS              
AND 6C AT GGW AT 12Z ALONG WITH SW TO W WINDS OF 25-40 KT...COMPARED            
TO TEMPS OF -9C AT INL. DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...MOISTURE WAS               
FAIRLY SPARSE AT 12Z WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C OR MORE BTWN              
725 AND 900MB...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO IS               
CUT-OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING                
SOME LOW TO MID 20S DEWPOINTS UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ERN                     
DAKOTAS...AND THIS MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UP THROUGH THE WARM                    
ADVECTION PROCESS HAS RESULTED IN A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW.                 
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS BAND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW MN.              
CLOSER TO HOME...OUTSIDE OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN             
CWA...SUNNY SKIES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN THE RULE. THE SUN COMBINED                
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING                 
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S. A FEW              
DOWNSLOPING SPOTS EVEN MANAGED TO REACH THE LOW 40S.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
OUT OF ALL THE MODELS...OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN APPEARS TO BE HANDLING            
THE BEST SO FAR WITH THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE WEIGHTED MORE OF THE                 
FORECAST TO THIS MODEL. SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN MONTANA IS PROGGED TO              
DIG A LITTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING WESTERN                
UPPER MI AROUND 12Z TUE AND NW LAKE HURON AROUND 18Z. DPVA AND WARM             
ADVECTION/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SHOULD                    
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPING BAND OF PCPN OVER NORTHERN MN AS             
IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITH THE SHRTWV. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE              
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THANKS TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH                  
MIXING RATIOS ON THE 285K SURFACE JUMPING FROM 2 G/KG RIGHT NOW TO 3            
OR 4 G/KG BY THE TIME THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND MOVES IN. GIVEN THE                
INCREASING MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING IN            
SPEED...THE BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA.                     
THEREFORE...GREATEST PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN                 
PORTION OF THE CWA. GENERAL QPF CONSENSUS IS BTWN 0.10-0.30...THOUGH            
THE GFS PAINTS UP TO 0.40 NEAR MANISTIQUE. AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE              
BASED ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE                   
SYSTEM. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE NEAR 10 TO 1 DUE TO 7000 FT              
OR SO OF AGGREGATION...BUT WENT A BIT HIGHER (12 TO 1) AS THE                   
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS A BIT LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE (700MB                   
INSTEAD OF 600MB). THIS RESULTS IN A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF                   
SNOW...GREATEST IN THE EASTERN CWA. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A                
SNOW ADVISORY FOR SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE SINCE THEY ARE ON THE HIGH               
END OF AMOUNTS AND WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE PCPN. IN               
ADDITION...THIS AREA MAY SEEM SOME BREEZY WIND GUSTS                            
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS UP TO 40 MPH NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE PER                 
MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                           
IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWBAND...THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DRY-SLOTTED AS             
THE SHRTWV CROSSES. THEREFORE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND DRIED THE CWA OUT             
IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE BAND. SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR UPSLOPE                 
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...BUT WITH CLOUD BASES            
EXPECTED UP AROUND 2000 FT ALONG WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...DO NOT               
THINK DRIZZLE WILL BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM. DURING THE                         
AFTERNOON...MODELS STARTING GENERATING PCPN AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AS               
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PCPN                
APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH               
THE SHRTWV AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 500MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT               
18Z NEAR -30C. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AFTER                      
18Z...WITH EVEN SOME 20 POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AFTER 15Z WHEN               
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD START DEVELOPING. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF              
RAIN WITH THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WET-BULB ZERO                  
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED AT OR ABOVE 1500 FT.                                        
BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT DUE TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED              
CONDITIONS TODAY AND A BREEZY SOUTH WIND. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES              
ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAY HAVE TO BE                 
RAISED MORE...IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WILL              
SHIFT INTO JAMES BAY ON ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE TO               
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER RACES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST ONTARIO INTO                 
CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SWEEP            
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH             
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T`S WILL REACH             
18C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA. THUS                  
LOOKING FOR LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER            
THE SOUTHERN U.P.                                                               
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY              
NIGHT AS DRY AIR INVADES THE U.P. THUS LOOKING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS            
TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SNOW                   
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS VERY INCONSISTENT AND DIFFICULT TO              
DETERMINE WHICH TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF INDICATES               
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA...AND NAM EXPECTS ALOT OF MOISTURE. GFS              
IS AND GLOBEL ARE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL START TO INVADE THE                
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLAN TO TAKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE CHANCES              
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT NOT ALL BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.                     
AS POINTED OUT BY HPC CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SOLUTION. THE                    
GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSEST SOLUTIONS OF ANY OF THE OPTIONS AND PLAN             
TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL                 
SWEEP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHILE A                 
SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE             
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATE              
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND            
OUT OF THE NORTH. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP               
DELTA-T TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO             
KEEP AT LEAST A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.            
THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURACE RIDGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE RIDGE            
DRAWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE               
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL            
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                 
VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA             
AND TOGETHER IS INCREASE MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE MORE SNOW.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX AND KSAW THRU THE AFTN. AHEAD OF            
AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM TONIGHT...STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL                  
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE                 
FCST...IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN JUST MIXED                
ENOUGH DOWN TO THE SFC TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND SHEAR LAYER.            
SNOW BAND CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE                   
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A 3-5 HR PERIOD             
OF IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LIFR VIS             
AND IFR CIG RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW BAND MAY              
GUST UP TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING AT KCMX...DUE TO THE FUNNELING WIND            
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TAF            
SITES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW.                
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT...BUT ANY SCATTERING OUT OF THE                
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL TUE EVENING...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND              
COLD AIR ALOFT HELPS FORM MORE CLOUDS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
WINDS HAVE APPROACHED 30 KT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN               
AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WIND CORE            
SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AS            
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARS. GOING SOUTHERLY GALES OF 35-40 KT SEEM             
REASONABLE. AFTER THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT CROSSES TUE MORNING...A                
BRIEF OF PERIOD OF WEST TO 30 KT WINDS SEEMS LIKELY ALONG THE                   
KEWEENAW...AIDED BY PRESSURE RISES. LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE                 
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. BEHIND THIS             
FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW GALES APPEARS LIKELY...MAINLY OVER THE             
EASTERN HALF. BEYOND TUE NIGHT...WINDS FALL BELOW 30 KT AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS FAIRLY                
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 UPPER MICHIGAN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR              
 MIZ007-014-085.                                                                
 LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUE               
  LSZ250-251-266-267.                                                           
 LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUE                  
  LMZ248-250.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AJ                                                                 
LONG TERM...DLG                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
135 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT)                                           
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SNOW AMOUNT FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN             
CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT                    
RECENTLY CAME ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON WILL IMPACT THE UPPER            
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE                   
DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS                            
MORNING...EXCEPT HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND              
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STUCK AROUND PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI AND SOUTHERN LOWER            
MI.                                                                             
TODAY...CUT BACK ON POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...KEWEENAW AND EAST OF              
MUNISING. THERE ARE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE KEWEENAW                          
PENINSULA...AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN CWA. KEPT                   
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY                
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.                                                         
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE            
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND                        
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. PCPN AMOUNTS ARE               
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WIDESPREAD SNOW UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY              
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH IN LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST               
AND UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE EAST WITH THE LINGERING SYSTEM ARE                  
POSSIBLE ON TUE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT. THE              
SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE WEST HALF BY 06Z AND CONCENTRATE ON              
THE EAST HALF AFTER 06Z.                                                        
MODELS AGREE THAT A "DRY SLOT" WILL INTERFERE WITH PCPN FROM 12Z TO             
18Z...SO BACKED OFF POPS OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF ALONG THE WI                   
BORDER. KEPT CHC RAIN OR SNOW IN SOUTHERN PART OF CWA TUE AFTERNOON             
FOR NOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40F. HOWEVER...WITH               
THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW              
PRETTY QUICKLY. 850MB TEMPS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE AROUND             
-7C AND RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO -13C. WITH TEMPS THAT COLD...LES SHOULD             
LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                 
WEDNESDAY...GFS IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE LATEST RUN...BUT NEXT            
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW...KEPT CHC LES                 
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH HALF OF CWA.                                                
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH TRACK A MOISTURE-PACKED LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. IN COORDINATION WITH GRB AND               
DLH...DECREASED POPS TO AROUND 30 FOR THU AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX AND KSAW THRU THE AFTN. AHEAD OF            
AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM TONIGHT...STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL                  
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE                 
FCST...IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN JUST MIXED                
ENOUGH DOWN TO THE SFC TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WIND SHEAR LAYER.            
SNOW BAND CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE                   
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A 3-5 HR PERIOD             
OF IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LIFR VIS             
AND IFR CIG RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW BAND MAY              
GUST UP TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING AT KCMX...DUE TO THE FUNNELING WIND            
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH TAF            
SITES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW.                
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT...BUT ANY SCATTERING OUT OF THE                
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
MAIN CONCERN IS ON SRLY GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE                
TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES REGION. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SW             
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES                   
CLOSER. WITH ASSISTANCE OF MAX PRESSURE FALLS PASSING ACROSS THE                
AREA...SRLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES BY LATE EVENING OVER            
ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE               
NEARSHORE WATERS E OF MUNISING...ESPECIALLY AROUND GRAND MARAIS                 
WHICH TYPICALLY EXPERIENCES STRONG WINDS WITH SRLY FLOW. GRADIENT               
WILL SLACKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR GALES TO END BY LATE TUE MORNING. AS              
THE LOW HEADS E TUE NIGHT...A PERIOD OF NW GALES WILL LIKELY OCCUR              
DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.             
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25KT FROM WED AFTN THRU FRI.                          
OVER THE NRN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS (EXCLUDING THE BAY OF               
GREEN BAY)...SETUP LOOKS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR GALES TONIGHT INTO            
TUE MORNING AS TRACK OF MAX PRES FALLS JUST N OF LAKE MICHIGAN                  
PROVIDES AN ADDED BOOST TO WINDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT                  
HIGH END GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT BTWN ABOUT 06Z              
AND 12Z TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...NW WINDS TUE NIGHT SHOULD                 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE                                                          
 LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUE               
  LSZ250-251-266-267.                                                           
 LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUE                  
  LMZ248-250.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MRC                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
155 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE                    
SURFACE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD                   
INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF STATES ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE               
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES TO BERMUDA WED THROUGH FRI              
WITH A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                                 
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...                                                         
KRAX RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING                
SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED ACROSS              
THE TRIAD AND AROUND ROXBORO EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY RAIN              
SPRINKLES AROUND THE TRIANGLE. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN                
ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING MID-LEVEL S/W...COINCIDENT WITH THE                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM              
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.              
THE RUC DID A GOOD JOB EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH INDICATING GOOD                
925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ALONG THE            
LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR...THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE ASSOCIATED              
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING WITH            
FURTHER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THUS EXPECT A LULL FOR THE               
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL LATER THIS              
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY COLD POOL              
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAVE. -CBL                                            
THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND ASSOCIATED INSOLATION WILL SET THE STAGE               
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A                  
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM              
THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPROACHES.              
STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100 METERS/12               
HRS AND THE APPROACH OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL (H5 TEMPS            
B/W -30 AND -35 C) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD              
THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS RATHER               
LIMITED (PWATS RANGING FROM .25 TO .50" W/E ACROSS THE CWA)...                  
BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT              
AND STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL OVERCOME THE                
OVERALL RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN. IN FACT... THE SHOWERS OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH SIMILAR PWATS SUNDAY ARE A               
GOOD INDICATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THE                  
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO                
NEAR 40 MPH... AS MID LEVEL DRY ENTRAINMENT AND SUB CLOUD DIABATIC              
COOLING WITH INVERTED-V MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ENHANCE                   
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. SUCH WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM RDU               
WESTWARD... WHERE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL               
DEVELOP WITH THE EXPECTED PARTIAL CLEARING... WHILE THE LINGERING               
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL STUNT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH LOW LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES IN THE EAST. LASTLY... A FEW WET FLAKES COULD MIX IN                
WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS IF THEY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING              
HOURS... WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT                  
SOMETHING OTHER THAN ALL LIQUID. ANY FLAKES WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT                
GIVEN THEIR FLEETING NATURE.-MWS                                                
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE OBSERVED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AT GSO               
THIS MORNING WAS 1294M. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL             
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE             
OVER EASTERN NC AND THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH SHARPENINIG               
MID-LEVEL VORT...HAVE ELECTED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE 48-52                
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE TEMPERATURES              
COULD STILL BE TOO WARM IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SCATTER OUT BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON. -BLS/CBL                                                       
AFTER LINGERING AND DISSIPATING SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT... EXPECT              
CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH                  
OVERNIGHT...AS HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD               
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT LOW TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30              
NW TO MID 30S SE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...                                                          
MODELS FEATURE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES            
IN THE SERN U.S. ON THU.  AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER                
NEAR SAVANNAH GA DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND ELONGATES WITH AN AXIS                
WEST TO EAST FROM THE GULF STATES TO BEYOND BERMUDA.  THIS RESULTS              
IN A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH SUBSIDENCE                   
WARMING AND DRYING IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS AND A MODERATE WARMING                
TREND AT THE SURFACE.  THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TRACK REMAINS WELL               
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.            
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO 40 ACROSS THE RAH CWA TUE NIGHT SHOULD GAIN             
5-8 DEG FOR LOWS WED NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WED SHOULD             
RISE TO 70-75 FOR THU UNDER FLEETING CIRRUS OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY              
SKIES.  -RFG                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
S OF 1115 AM MONDAY...                                                          
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A MODERATE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE             
WESTERN CONUS AND FLAT RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.  A SURFACE RIDGE               
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF STREAM ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO                   
RESULTING IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH             
PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD YIELD ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S            
TO AROUND 80.                                                                   
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MODELS ARE REASONABLY TOGETHER IN SHOWING A COLD                
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT. BUT THERE EXISTS A 6-12              
HOUR UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC                 
GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE GFS AND AMONG OTHER MEMBERS OF               
THE MODEL SUITE. A PREVAILING WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL             
FLOW SUGGESTS MINIMAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE                
MOUNTAINS AND ONLY A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE RAH CWA WITH              
THE FRONT.  POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCE RANGE OF            
20-30 PERCENT...MAINLY FOR SAT.  THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN              
THE PREFRONTAL SECTOR FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.  TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE IN TRANSITION FOR SAT AND WITH CLOUD COVER GREATEST TO THE              
NW... HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NW TO NEAR 80 SE.                         
SAT NIGHT-MON...MODELS SHOW CONFLUENCE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN                
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH COOLER                
DRIER AIR QUICKLY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.  THE              
REPLACING AIRMASS IS MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM CONTINENTAL TRAVERSING              
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO NC.  THIS              
SHOULD MEAN COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN.  BY                    
MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A LARGE MERIDIONAL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST               
FROM A 1035-1040 MB CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES.  THIS            
SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT                    
POSSIBLY CIRRUS OR MID CLOUD ADVANCEMENT FROM A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH              
IN THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN               
NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS 65-70.  -RFG            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...AN EXTENSIVE CAA STRATOCU FIELD HAS MANIFESTED              
ITSELF ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BARELY CLIPPING THE                   
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AS SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE INCREASING                     
INSTABILITY ALOFT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (0 TO 3 KM) TO 8.0 TO                
8.5C.                                                                           
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW             
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE...AS EASTWARD PUSH OF 850 CONVERGENT TROUGH               
AXIS HAS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W             
TROUGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING            
ALONG THE EASTER EDGES...AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER                   
40S...WITH FURTHER EROSION EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN FRINGES FROM CAA.            
AS THE SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MID-LEVEL COLD CORE                       
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL PASS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER              
SHOWERS COULD TRANSFER A STIFF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS             
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE                
SHOWER COVERAGE...WILL INCLUDE VCSH ONLY.                                       
CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES              
EAST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.                        
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL            
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING               
FOG/STRATUS BY LATE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...AS                             
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.                    
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
WFO RALEIGH WILL START THE 2008 SPRING FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WITH 4AM            
FORECAST PACKAGE ON MARCH 30TH. THIS DATE IS APPROXIMATELY A WEEK               
EARLIER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THAN THE AVERAGE DATE FOR THE LAST                  
SPRING FREEZE (APR 9TH)...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
EXPERIENCED IN FEBRUARY (4 TO 5 DEGREES F) AND WITH MARCH CURRENTLY             
RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RFG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CBL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...CBL                                                                  
CLIMATE...CBL                                                                   
</pre> nc