FXUS63 KICT 190238 AAA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
938 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE 
INTO NRN AND ERN KS.  SATL DOESNT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS 
ASSOC WITH THIS 700H MOISTURE, WITH 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOWING 
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING OVER NERN SECTIONS OF KS AFTER 06Z.  SO 
EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHRA CHCS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN 
NERN KS, SKIRTING ALONG ERN EDGES OF THE CWA.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY 
ALSO ENOUGH FOR A TSRA CHC.  MOISTURE IN THE LOW LAYERS IS LIMITED, 
SO EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DO DVLP TO BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY 
SLIDE INTO SERN KS BY 12Z.  SO WILL KEEP SLGT CHCS AROUND UNTIL 
THEN. 

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO MAINLY FRESHEN THE WORDING. 

KETCHAM 



-------------------------------------------------------------------
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FCST CONCERNS...
CNVTV CHCS TNGT N AND E OF ICT...
RETURNING HEAT THRU WED, THEN POTNL COOLDOWN BY WEEKS END...

BAND OF MID LVL MSTR/ELEVATED INSTBY THAT HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD/WDLY 
SCT SHWRS THE PAST 2 NGTS ACRS SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS, WL SHIFT EWD 
TNGT ACRS PTNS OF ERN KS. WITH A LTL BETTER THETA-E ADVCTN IN THE 
850-700MB LYR FOR AREAS NE OF ICT ALG THE TURNPIKE, HAVE DECIDED TO 
GO WITH SLGT CHC LATE TNGT/MON MRNG. OTHERWISE, A TURN TWD MORE 
TYPICAL SUMMER JULY HEAT IS ON TAP FOR MON AFTN, WITH MAXS INTO THE 
90S ACRS THE AREA. THE ETA RMNS THE MOST CONSISTENT IN BLDG UPR 
RDG/HEAT DOME ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TUE, AS CLOSED UPR LOW OFF 
THE PACIFIC NW COAST OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES ENEWD ACRS SWRN 
CANADA.  PROGD LO LVL THKNS VALUES AND POINT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAXS 
ARND 100F ACRS CNTRL KS, SO LTL CHG TO GOING FCST. 

UPR RDG WL FLATTEN BY WED, AS SHRTWV'S IN INCRSG WLY FLO ALOFT RIDE
ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WL PUSH INITIAL SFC CDFNT SWD INTO KS BY
WED NGT. LO LVL MSTR WL RMN MRGNL FOR CNVTN ON WED, GIVEN WARM MID
LVL TEMPS/CAP ACRS THE AREA, SO WL LIMIT SLGT CHCS TO JUST S OF FNT 
LATE IN THE AFTN. WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ARND 100F MOST OF THE CWA ON 
WED. BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN TO COME WED NGT AND THU AS BNDRY SINKS SWD 
ACRS THE CWA, WITH INCRSG LO LVL MSTR/INSTBY AND DIFLUENT UPR FLO.

THE GFS/ECM RMN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT IN ROTATING SGFNT UPR TROF
SWD ARND CANADIAN VORTEX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A
STGR SECONDARY CDFNT TO BACKDOOR THE PLAINS, AS LNGWV UPR TROF 
DVLPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE GRTLKS. CNVTV CHCS WL CONT ON THU/EARLY
FRI BFR FNT ARRIVES, AS AIRMASS WL RMN UNSETTLED IN MODEST NWLY
UPR FLO REGIME. THE DRIER AND COOLER CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD DWINDLE
PCPN CHCS AND LWR TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPS WELL BLO CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  96  74 100 /  10  10   5   0
HUTCHINSON      68  97  73 101 /  10  10   5   0
NEWTON          67  96  73 100 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        67  95  73  99 /  20  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  96  74 100 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         69  99  73 102 /  10  10   5   0
GREAT BEND      68  99  73 103 /  10  10   5   0
SALINA          70  99  76 103 /  20  10   5   0
MCPHERSON       68  97  73 101 /  20  10   5   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  92  70  96 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         64  92  71  97 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            64  92  71  97 /  10  20  10   0
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
13/DARMOFAL