AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 PM MST WED JAN 1 2003
LATEST RUC HANDLING THE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO BURLINGTON AND POINTS WEST WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
2 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF THE 4 TO 7 ALREADY BEING REPORTED BY CO-
OP AND SPOTTER NETWORK. THANKS TO THEM FOR THEIR REPORTS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WITH NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WILL CANCEL WARNING ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
.GLD...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
       CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO...DUNDY COUNTY NEBRASKA...
       CHEYENNE AND SHERMAN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MST WED JAN 1 2003
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...REMOVED RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND
DECATUR COUNTY KANSAS FROM WARNING BASED ON 88D AND RUC PRECIP
TRENDS. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED WITH ABOUT HALF OR A BIT MORE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BY
THE FINE OBSERVERS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTHEAST WITH LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS JUST NORTHWEST OF YUMA COUNTY.
EXTRAPOLATION OF RUC/MESO ETA SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST. BY EVENING...SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER
WITH CLEARING EARLY MORNING.
OTHER THAN TWEAKING TIMING OF SNOW OVER THE EAST...ADJUSTED WINDS
DOWN AND TWEAKED AFTERNOON AND GRIDDED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON RUC.
.GLD...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
       CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO. DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES
       OF NEBRASKA. CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...SHERMAN...THOMAS...
       WALLACE...LOGAN...GREELEY...AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST
       KANSAS.
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
845 PM CST WED JAN 1 2003
WILL SENT AN UPDATE FOR A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS S AR/NW LA HAVE BACKED AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT AS OF 02Z APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF A PRX...
TRL...CRS LINE. VERY STRONG GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS S OK/N TX
THUS INCREASED WINDS JUST A LITTLE IN THE WEST AND BUMPED UP ZONES
NORTHWEST OF I-30 CORRIDOR TO CAUTION CRITERIA. PRECIP BROKE OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF
EASTWARD MOVING COMMA HEAD NEAR MLC AT THIS TIME. LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY INTO SW AR LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING BEING THE MAIN PLAYER AS TO IF
ANY LIQUID PRECIP CAN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. RUC40 AND 00Z
MESOETA FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N MCCURTAIN SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING
AWFUL SHALLOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OR THE PERIOD THAT A CHANGE OVER
WOULD OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE TOTALLY
FROM THE FCST SO WILL LEAVE AS IS.
UPDATE PLANNED FOR 930...13.
.SHV...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1045 AM EST WED JAN 01 2003
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN AREA OF MDT TO HVY
RAIN LIFTING NWD ACROSS CWA. PRECIP OVR FAR SRN ZONES IS MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL WORD PRECIP AS SHRAS SRN ZONES WHERE
PRECIP IS MORE SCATTERED. WILL MENTION TSRA POSSIBLE THERE TOO WHERE
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. 12Z RUC2 FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TT
OF 55 WITH LIFTED AND SHOWALTER BECOMING NEGATIVE AND CAPES 200-400
J/KG AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.
ROSA
...SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU THU...
STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING CWA FROM SW AND PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY IT. DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOC WITH 850MB WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYSTEM CAUSED SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TO FALL OUT OF A MID DECK N 1/3 CWA. THIS WAS JUST THE PRECURSOR TO
THE STRONG LIFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING LOW TODAY. PRECIP WATER
VALUES REACH 1.5 INCHES THIS AFT AND STRONG UL DIV...500-700MB PVA
AND 850MB UPSLOPE UP TO 40KTS WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ABT AN
INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 02Z.
LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE OF CWA BY 06Z...TAKING CONCENTRATED FORCING
WITH IT. HOWEVER...IT LEAVES PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR DAMMING IN ITS WAKE. WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF 2ND
LOW...WEAK OVERRUNNING SETS UP. THIS SCENERIO GIVES THREAT OF -DZ OR
-FZDZ THU MORN...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
THU AFT...COLDER AIR SHOWS UP ALOFT AS RIDGING PUSHES E OF CWA. THIS
IN COMBO WITH SOME LIFT STARTING TO REACH W CWA FROM NEXT LOW WILL
ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR -SN IN NW ZONES. IT LOOKS
LIKE REST OF CWA WILL NOT SEE LIFT UNTIL THU NITE SO EVEN THOUGH
SOUNDING WILL START TO COOL ALOFT...SUPERCOOLED DROPLET PROCESSES
WILL PREVAIL...KEEPING PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. WILL KEEP PRECIP AS
-DZ/-FZDZ REST OF CWA THU AFT.
MMARGRAF
.LATER PERIODS...BASIC MDL CONSENSUS THRU WKND. PTTN LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTV ONE...AND QSTN IF EACH WAVE IS GETTING ITS DUE...OR IF MASSIVE
FEEDBACK PRESENT. FOR THIS REASON...WL BE MAKING ONLY SMALL STEPS IF
ANY CHG AT ALL.  W/ SUCH AN ACTV PTTN /WAVES EVRY 36 HRS/...THESE
SVRL WVS MAY MERGE INTO ONE GLOOMY STRETCH FM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE.
TIMING ON 2ND S/WV LT THU/FRI HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SVRL DAYS NOW.
STRNG OMEGA FIELD PRSNT OVR CWFA...SPCLY ONCE CSTL SFC LOW TAKES OVR
FRI. MSTR CERTAINLY PRESENT SFC-H7 FOR LIFT TO ACT UPON. SO...FEEL
COMFY BUMPING POPS UP TO LIKELY W THU NGT..EVRYWHR FRI. NOW...FOR
PTYPE-- THE BIG MYSTERY.  00Z RUN COMING IN A PINCH COLDER...LEANING
MORE TWD SNW. COLD AIR DAMMING PRESENT...WHICH SYNOPTIC MDLS ALWAYS
ERIDE AWAY TOO QUICKLY. THRML PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A COLD SOLN.
HWVR...TKNS SCHEMES HINT AT WARMTH ALFT...W/ LIQUID PCP SERN THIRD.
THIS LYR CAN BE SPOTTED IN SDNGS AT 800 MB...BUT NEVER CROSSES 0C
ISOTHERM. BOURGOIUN /ENERGY/ METHOD PROBABLY BETTER AT DISCERNING
PTYPE...BUT W/ SFC AND/OR H8 LOWS POTENTIALLY TRACKING OHD...WOULD
RATHER NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC IN FCST YET.  SUSPECT WRN HALF WUD
REMAIN ALL SNW...A SMALL ERN/SERN PORTION ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SORT
OF TRANSITION ZN IN BTWN. WL MAKE EASY COMMITMENT TO ALL SNW W OF
BLURDG AS LOW PULLS AWAY FRI NGT...AND LET THE REST STAND AS IS.
SHSN IN WRN MTNS SAT...THEN A TRANSITORY PD BEFORE NXT S/WV SUN.
NEW GDNC SUGGESTING THIS TOO WL DROP PCPN...AND THIS TIME IS WUD BE
ALL SNW. HWVR...SINCE THIS IS THE THIRD STORM THE MDLS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE...I/VE OPTED TO LET DAYSHFT HNDL IT. I/VE
INCRSD CLDCVR FOR THE WKND AS FLW NEVER REALLY DVLP GOOD DWNSLOPING
TO SCOUR OUT PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR.
SMALL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...BUT OVRALL STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GFS.  HV MADE NO CHGS TO FCST MON-TUE.
HTS
.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SCA CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL PTMC COBB ISL TO SMITH PT.
</PRE></TT></td>   md
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
819 PM CST WED JAN 1 2003
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCREASING PRECIP
IN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD JUST SOUTH OF TULSA.
OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
ECHOES HAVE STEADILY INCREASED ON AREA RADARS...ALTHOUGH IT WAS
JUST RECENTLY THAT PRECIP BEGAN TO REACH THE GROUND IN OUR CWA.
SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ENID OK TO PARSONS KANSAS
LINE AT 02Z WITH PATCHES OF RAIN WORKING TO THE GROUND IN THE REST
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  RUC MODEL GRID POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SWITCH THE PRECIP TO SNOW
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA WHERE SUSTAINED PRECIP OCCURS.
PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL VERY TRICKY GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILES WITH
THE SYSTEM.
DID NOT CHANGE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS UPDATE.  AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT AMOUNTS COULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN FIRST
THOUGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...BUT COULD BE MORE IN EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IF THE COMMA HEAD PRECIP
CONTIUES TO INCREASE.  WILL WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND MAKE A DECISSION ON EXPANDIG THE ADVISORY SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER.
FORECAST ID= 8
.TSA...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT OKZ054>063...067>069.
ARK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT ARZ001-002-010-011.
</PRE></TT></td>   ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EST WED JAN 1 2003
UPPER LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW...WITH LOW CEILING DECKS
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  LARGE BREAKS AND SOME SUN
HAVE PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S ALREADY.  THIS ALONG WITH SOME
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ARE ALLOWING SCT SHOWERS TO FORM PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES.  WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND
TRY TO TIME SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  MSAS LI
ANALYSIS AND ETA THETA-E FIELDS SHOW STABLE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.   DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS HAVE
YET TO MIX DOWN.  BASED ON THE LATEST ETA AND RUC40 DATA...WILL
LOWER SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW BREEZY OVER THE INLAND ZONES.
CWF...WINDS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE SW. SPEEDS AT BUOY 8 SEEM A BIT
LOW WHEN COMPARED TO SPAG1 W/MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS. SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WINDS AND SEAS AOA SCA THOUGH AS GRAD PINCHES
JUST A LITTLE MORE...SO DO NOT PLAN TO REMOVE ANY HEADLINES. WILL
ADJUST INIT CONDS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS.
.CHS...
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ354-374.
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE.
PY/MR
</PRE></TT></td>   sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
940 AM EST WED JAN 1 2003
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW NEAR THE KY/WV BORDER WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST.  DEWPOINTS OVER THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DRYING WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING.
RUC HAS A SECOND VORT MAX NEAR ATL WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z.  SATPIX SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S.  COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
TO CONTINUE TIL EVENING.
FCSTID =    2
CAE   64  45  63  43 /  50  10  10  30
AGS   62  46  64  44 /  50  10  10  30
SSC   65  45  63  43 /  50  10  10  30
OGB   64  45  64  43 /  50  10  10  30
.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MST THU JAN 2 2003
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF SNOW
COVER THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND AND HIGHER PRESSURE
FOLLOWING THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THE
FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR.
ALL MODELS ARE PERFORMING SIMILARLY WITH COMPARABLE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
BELIEVE ALL THE MODELS ARE GOING TOO WARM TODAY WITH REMAINING SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ETA BEING SOMEWHAT QUICKER TO WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WILL GERNEALLY UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY AND GO
WITH THE WARMING TREND OF THE MESOETA IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RUC
ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FOLLOWING SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH EACH SYSTEM.
.GLD...NONE.
LOCKHART
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003
WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER...
SOUTHWEST OF KSGF AT 07Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LARGE
PRECIPITATION AREA NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW...FROM
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ANOTHER LESS
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WAS OVER THE OZARKS OF ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI. BOTH PRECIP AREAS WERE DEVELOPING EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
LOW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...WITH BOTH THE ETA/AVN
TAKING IT JUST SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS AROUND 18Z...THEN ACROSS THE
WABASH VALLEY OF INDIANA BY 00Z. ETA SHOWS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS PATH...WITH ONLY AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE DUE
TO A STRONG VORT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE
AVN SHOWS. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA WHERE THE PRECIP IS MOSTLY SNOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE ADVISORY AREA.
PRECIP TYPE CENTERS MAINLY ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS INDICATE THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY 12Z...SO ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS
ARE THE KEY TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE 32 DEGREE SURFACE WET BULB
TEMP CURRENTLY MARKS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WELL. THE ETA SHOWS LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THIS ISOTHERM TODAY...WHILE THE RUC DROPS IT SOUTH TO
THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE WINDS BACK INTO THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST TODAY...LOWER WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD ADVECT SLOWLY
SOUTH. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR OVER ALL BUT THE HOPKINSVILLE
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. 01/00Z MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FROM BOTH
NGM/AVN VERIFIED TOO COLD FOR LOWS THIS MORNING. WILL STAY ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY.
DESPITE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT...THE MODELS END MEASURABLE
PRECIP AROUND 00Z AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR THE EVV TRI
STATE GOING INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REFREEZING AS
TEMPS FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. AVN/NGM MOS LOWS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON WHEN AND IF CLEARING
OCCURS. ETA LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KENTUCKY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER AVN MOS FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT EVV. EXPECT SOME SUN IN SE MISSOURI...
AND WILL GO WARMER THAN AVN MOS THERE.
PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST STILL APPEAR
REASONABLE AS THE GFS/AVN SHOWS A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
DISTURBANCES.
.PAH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA.
$$
MY/GM
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EST THU JAN 2 2003
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TEMPERATURES. UPPER
MICHIGAN IS IN STORE FOR A RATHER QUITE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS AND
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TRAILING THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR AND 280K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING
MAINLY DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT
INDUCED CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP ON 3.9U IR SATELLITE AND IN THE
SURFACE REPORTS OVER THE U.P. THE AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AT THIS TIME...ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN RESPECT TO THE
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER 48 HOURS GFS AND ECMWF WERE
VERY SIMILAR...WITH ETA INTENSIFYING MORE AND SLOWING THE SYSTEMS
DOWN MORE THAN THE OTHERS. CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IS A COMPROMISE...
BUT IS STILL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ETA SOLUTION. UKMET DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. GFS HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE UKMET/ETA SLOW THE SYSTEMS DOWN AND MAKING THESE MORE INTENSE. I
WILL FAVOR THE GFS SINCE IT HAS SHOWN BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC PULLING THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...VEERING EAST AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY. SOLAR RADIATION WILL PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED HEATING TODAY
AS THE CLOUD COVER WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE AT 850MB AND SURFACE FROM YESTERDAY...
HOWEVER...ETA FAVORS AN INCREASE OF 4F TO 6F OVER YESTERDAY.
TRAJECTORY FORECAST IS PULLING THE AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES THERE WERE IN THE TEENS FOR
HIGHS YESTERDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS
AS IT PASSES OVER THE LAKES...THUS GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN
ETA.
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL FILL AND SHIFT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY. CONDITION FAVOR DOWN SLOPE OVER THE AREA AND LESS CLOUDS
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME RADIATION
COOLING AND TEMPERATURE A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SURFACE
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN MANITOBA ON FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ON SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR
SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO -6C. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE SAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DRY AIR WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO END SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE AREA AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL SLIDE
DOWN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE COLD AIR ADVECTION. DELTA-T'S WILL ALSO
LOWER TO 16C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS APT TO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
.MQT...NONE.
DLG
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNRISE DUE TO ADDITIONAL MIXING.  WILL CONT FCST OF BREEZY INLAND
WITH WINDY ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY.  EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PGF WEAKENS AND LAPSE RATES STABILIZE.
HIGHS TDY WILL FOLLOW MAV WITH COOLEST TEMPS NE WHERE BEST CAA IS
LOCATED.  FOR TONIGHT...BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL DIE OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS SUGGESTS OVER WEST/INLAND AREAS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA SO EASTERN/COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A DECENT NORTH WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THUS RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN INLAND LOCATIONS AND WILL UNDERCUT
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HERE.  BELIEVE A FEW MINS OF 32 WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...HWR THESE FREEZING TEMPS WOULD BE
BRIEF.  WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT COLDER TEMPS TONIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE CWA AND THUS SLY FLOW WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL SAT.  ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON FRI NIGHT BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INFILTRATE THE AREA AND MIN TEMPS MODERATE FOR THE
WEEKEND.  ALL IN ALL...WX LOOKS FANTASTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTING UP
OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND KEEPING DRY NWLY FLOW GOING.  THIS
SHOULD SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MON...BUT AM CERTAIN THAT
COOLEST AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS FRONT WILL ONLY ADVECT
IN DRIER SFC AIR TO RE-ENFORCE NICE WX.  WILL CONT FCST OF VALUES
HIGHER THAN CLIMO.  GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING WINTER BACK TO THE CONUS
AND S TX.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH.
CRP UU 063/036 067/039 071 92000
VCT UU 059/033 064/037 069 92000
LRD UU 067/039 070/041 072 92000
MARINE...SURGE OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT OCCURRING PRETTY
MUCH AS FORECAST. NGM/AVN HAS A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE WINDS THAN
RUC OR ETA. GOING FORECASTS ON TARGET WITH A FEW MINOR
CHANGES...ALTHOUGH WILL BRING A WINDSHIFT TO NW IN FOR THE BAYS LATE
MONDAY.
.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275 THROUGH TONIGHT.
92/TR
70/PURPURA
</PRE></TT></td>   tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EST THU JAN 2 2003
WILL BE DROPPING ALL HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT ANY HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY ATTM FOR THE FRI-SAT
STORM SYS.
1ST STORM SYS TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TODAY. A RIDGE OF HI
PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...AS A 2ND STORM SYS
TRACKS ACRS THE SE USA. THIS 2ND STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
SRN NEW ENG ON FRI/FRI NITE...THEN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SAT
AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRESS BUILDS ACRS THE ERN GREAT LKS REGION.
THIS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE/SUN. SECONDARY TROF TO
MOVE ACRS THE FA ON SAT AS WELL. WILL BE LEANING ON THE 00Z GFS
DEPICTION OF 2ND STORM SYS FOR NOW TO BE SAFE AND TRY NOT TO REPEAT
THE TREND OF PULLING PCPN FROM THE FCST ONLY TO HAVE TO PUT IT BACK
AT A LATER DATE.
03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F
TODAY WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT MESONET OBS...THESE RANGES APPEAR TO BE
IN THE BALLPARK FOR TODAY/S MAXES. LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) DRYING TO
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. RUC SHOWS PCPN (IN THE
FORM OF MOSTLY SN) TO COME TO AN END ACRS THE FA BY AROUND 12Z TODAY.
RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS WELL.
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WAA FOR TONITE AND ON
FRI...WITH WK CAA ON FRI NITE/SAT. H85 TEMPS TO STAY BLO 0C ACRS THE
FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE TONITE AND EARLY ON FRI. LOW-LVLS LOOK TO BE
DRY ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TONITE...THEN LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE
ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES).
LOW-LVLS TO DRY OUT ACRS THE FA FOR SAT NITE/SUN. MID-LVL MSTR TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE AND LINGER ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH
OF FRI THRU SAT. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE 0.3-0.4" ACRS THE FA ON FRI
THRU SAT. USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z ETA/GFS YIELDS BLO 0.4" OF QPF
ACRS THE SRN FA ON FRI THRU SAT. WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR ADDED IN...
THIS SYS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FURTHER FOR ANY HEADLINES AT A LATER
TIME.
HAVE BROKEN OUT THE SRN 4 CTYS OF VT FOR ANY ONGOING PCPN EARLY TODAY
(AS WELL THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SN ON FRI-SAT) AND WILL HANG ONTO
TO THE PTLY SUNNY WORDING ACRS THE REST OF THE FA FOR TODAY. AFTER
TAKING A GANGER AT LATEST BUFR DATA...AM UNIMPRESSED WITH THE
PROSPECT FOR ANY LK CHAMP LES TODAY. WILL HANDLE WITH THE STF IF IN
FACT IT DOES OCCUR. FA EXPECTED TO BE DRY (AFTER THE PCPN MOVES OUT
EARLY TODAY IN SRN VT) THRU TONITE...THEN SOME SOLID PCPN EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN (MOSTLY ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES) BY LATER ON FRI AND INTO
SAT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SRN TIER AND CHC POPS FOR NOW
ACRS THE REST OF THE FA THEN. MORE DRY WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON SAT
NITE/SUN WITH HI PRESS BUILDING IN THEN. NO CHANGES TO MON THRU WED
FCST FOR NOW.
WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY
</PRE></TT></td>   vt
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
910 PM PST WED JAN 01 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AND RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING OUT OF THE VALLEYS. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED INTO NW MONTANA WITH MOIST SW FLOW NOW FULLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE ENTIRE INLAND NW. LOOKS LIKE ONE SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS NOW TRACKING NE INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER FEATURE JUST WEST OF 130W. MEANWHILE
FARTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A
PRIMLY SLOPED PRESSURE FIELD WITH A STRONG PERPENDICULAR UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT. THIS UPSLOPE MOTION COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INLAND NW. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE WINDS A LITTLE
MORE WESTERLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING CANADIAN SHORTWAVE.
MEANWHILE...THE PRECIP ECHOES STREAMING NE FROM OREGON HAVE BECOME
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PER THE PORTLAND RADAR. THE 00Z ETA AND RUC HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND SUGGEST LEE SIDE AREAS OF THE CASCADES
MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL MORNING...WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE NEARS THE COAST. BY THIS TIME THE ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FEET AT WENATCHEE AND AROUND 2000 FEET
AT OMAK. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THIS NOTION IS A TAD OVERDONE...BUT
THEN AGAIN ANY RISING COMBINED WITH THE LULL IN THE ACTION SUGGESTS
WE CAN LIKELY DROP THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE WENATCHEE AREA. WE
ARE A LITTLE MORE LEERY ABOUT DROPPING HIGHLIGHTS ON THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU DUE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND UP TOWARD OMAK WHERE DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS FROM THE CASCADES ARE NEVER QUITE AS PROMINENT.
ELSEWHERE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PROXIMITY TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO SNOW
LEVELS. HERE AT THE SPOKANE WEATHER OFFICE WE HAVE SEEN NEARLY 2
INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATE...SO THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS
CONTINUE. THE RUC AND ETA SUGGEST THE A STRENGTHENING WARM SECTOR
WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NE OVERNIGHT. THE 03Z RUC DEPICTED AN 850 MB TEMP
OF -2 OVER SPOKANE WITH THE 0C LINE EXTENDING FROM MOSES LAKE TO
PULLMAN. FORTUNATELY WE HAD A VALUABLE ACARS SOUNDING AT 03Z WHICH
SHOWED THAT BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SOUDINGS WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY.
THUS WE SUSPECT THAT ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIFT OFF THE GROUND FROM SPOKANE TO WENATCHEE BEFORE 10 PM AND
SOUTH OF AN OMAK TO COLVILLE LINE BY 4AM. WE WILL UPDATE THE
FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THURSDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AS THE
OFFSHORE TROF PUSHES AN EVEN JUICER PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND
NW. AGAIN THE ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW PLENTY OF LIFT...BUT WARM AIR
WILL HAVE OVERTAKE JUST ABOUT ALL THE VALLEYS BY THAT TIME DUE TO THE
FAIRLY ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-5K
FEET NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND QUITE A BIT HIGHER ELSEWHERE.
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TREND. QPF VALUES FOR TOMORROW LOOK AWFULLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF OVER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS OBVIOUSLY
BODES WELL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WARNINGS IN THE NORTH SO WILL LEAVE AS
IS. THE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE WARM AIR.
FX
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 033/039/035/040/035/041 987756
COE 033/038/035/040/034/041 987757
PUW 036/043/035/044/037/046 666657
LWS 036/048/038/049/039/049 555456
CQV 031/034/035/040/034/042 989967
SPT 030/033/033/040/033/041 988856
WWP 030/036/032/038/033/039 787756
EAT 031/039/032/040/031/040 636654
MWH 035/042/034/043/034/044 546644
OMK 030/037/032/039/032/038 969966
.OTX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
       WAZ042>044-037-038 AND IDZ01-04...
</PRE></TT></td>   wa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003
SATELLITE SHOWS A THIN STRIP OF CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST LA OUT INTO
THE GULF. RUC 250 WINDS SHOW 110KT WINDS DIRECTING LINE. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STRETCH FROM KLCH TO NSF TO KMLU. DPTS OVER EAST TX HAVE
DROPPED ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR. MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE
OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MS...SPREADING NORTH AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. META SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SAME GENERAL POSITION
AS THE MSAS ANALYSIS SW AR AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z. KLZK
RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER NW AR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
REACH CWA THOUGH. EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR CLOUDS OVER SOUTH MS...MAY
GO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. WITH LOW OVER AR...CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTH MS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TWO
SYSTEMS SEEM TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MODELS PAINT LIGHT QPF
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WILL REFLECT SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES.
WILL USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. STILL EXPECTING A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WILL THINK ABOUT ADDING THUNDER TO MONDAY. AVN SHOWS SOME VERTICAL
MOTION AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY
HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND THE AREA WILL GET A SHORT
BREAK.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 049/030/044/025/050 3000
MEI 050/030/043/023/050 3000
.JAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   ms
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
240 AM PST THU JAN 2 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN TO THE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VALLEY RAIN WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF EITHER SNOW OR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS SKY ROCKET TO 5
AND 6 THOUSAND FEET.
.DISCUSSION...
.TODAY-SATURDAY...GFS AND ETA TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
SIMILAR...AND WE WILL NOT DEPART TOO MUCH FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE RUC/ETA FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR PRECIP
TYPE. EXPECTING A WAVE EACH PERIOD OF THE FCST EXCEPT MAYBE FRI...SO
RATHER HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE (ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTN ZONES).
IMMEDIATE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE SNOW LEVELS AND SFC TEMPS. ETA
850MB ZERO ISOTHERM AS FOR NORTH AS THE SRN PART OF NRN MTN ZONES
THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE CASCADES WHERE COLD AIR
DAMMING IS IN PLACE. MAIN THREAT FOR BRIEF FREEZING PRECIP WL BE
ROUGHLY FROM KEAT NEWD TO SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE WA. SIGNIFICANT
ICING NOT EXPECTED ATTM. OTHERWISE, WILL KEEP CURRENT BATCH OF HEAVY
SNOW WARNINGS GOING FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND NE WA/N ID INTO TONIGHT.
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 4-6K FT, ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN TODAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE OMAK THIS MORNING, WITH SNOW
HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN 4-6K FT THROUGH FRI NT.
WL DOWNGRADE PRECIP IN THE BASIN ZONES TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRI WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, WITH WLY 850MB FLOW AND CAA IN
PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY. BRIEFLY WINDY FRI AND FRI NT. SAT CONTINUED
WET, WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIMED AT THE PAC NW.
.SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST MRF/GFS RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A WET
FORECAST WITH A GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TAP. THE ONLY CHANGE
IS SOME SLIGHT COOLING WITH A FRONT PASSING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT JUMP ON THIS PARTICULAR PART OF THE SOLUTION
HOWEVER AND JUST KEPT THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 039/035/041/033/042 ++289
COE 039/035/040/034/042 ++589
PUW 043/036/044/036/046 87367
LWS 044/037/047/037/049 53135
CQV 036/034/040/034/042 ++699
SPT 036/033/040/033/041 ++889
WWP 036/033/038/033/039 ++889
EAT 040/034/043/033/040 42-56
MWH 042/035/044/034/045 65156
OMK 037/033/039/033/039 77276
.OTX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING  TODAY AND TONIGHT IDZ001,004.
       HEAVY SNOW WARNING  TODAY AND TONIGHT WAZ037,038.
       HEAVY SNOW WARNING  TODAY WAZ042.
       HEAVY SNOW WARNING  THROUGH MIDDAY WAZ043.
       HEAVY SNOW WARNING  THIS MORNING WAZ044.
</PRE></TT></td>   wa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
100 PM EST THU JAN 02 2003
SYNOPSIS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW THE SHORT WAVE
UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING E ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE IS NOTED ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS LA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE WRN U.S. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
DRAPED SWD FROM IT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONT NEAR THE MS/AL
BORDER. THE FRONT IS DELINEATED NICELY BY A ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING OUT
INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. KBMX RADARS SHOWS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN CENTRAL AL, BUT KMOB RADAR INDICATES THE SRN PART OF THE
FRONT IS STILL QUIET.
MODEL DISCUSSION/FORECAST: THE CURRENT MEAN LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OUT W AND A TROUGH IN
THE E. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SHORT WAVES. TIMING OF THE FIRST FROPA REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. SEE 1018 AM DISCUSSION BELOW. FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL BE
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ANTICIPATE ABOUT A 20 POP MOST ZONES. SINCE
SHOWERS WILL REACH WRN ZONES BEFORE 00Z...WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A REST
OF TODAY PERIOD. FOR FRI, CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH 50 ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF
THE CWFA. FRI NIGHT, EXPECT A FREEZE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH
THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND AREAS FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE
CRITERIA. ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SAT. BY
SUN, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SWINGING ESEWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE ALMOST NONEXISTENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND STILL THINK THIS IS THE BEST
WAY TO HANDLE THIS ONE.
MARINE: CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN DATA SHOW MARGINAL SCEC WINDS
(15-20KT) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MARGINAL SCA (20+KT) BEHIND IT.
WILL FOLLOW THIS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUE THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL NOT DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS UNTIL SAT. NO HIGHLIGHTS
EXPECTED WITH FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT LOOK FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO BE MET WITH THE NEXT ONE MON NIGHT INTO TUE (SEE BELOW).
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED: A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST ONE. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN AL
MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE PUNCHING ACROSS THE CWFA ON TUE. AGAIN
THE PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL BE BRIEF, BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH  41 50 26 56  2000
PFN  41 51 32 54  2000
DHN  39 47 29 52  3000
ABY  42 47 28 52  2000
VLD  42 50 28 54  2000
CTY  45 55 27 56  2000
.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SCA SUWANNEE RIVER TO DTS OUT 60NM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
*****************************************************************
1018 AM EST THU JAN 02 2003
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MS RIVER ABOUT
HALF WAY BETWEEN MEM AND GLH WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM IT
ACROSS SE LA AND INTO THE NW GULF. FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX
OF THE DAY SHOW SOME TEXTURE TO THE CLOUDS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
KMOB RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER,
12Z KTLH SOUNDING INDICATES DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A PW OF JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE
LOWEST 100 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A 4 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED AT
900 MB. THIS LIMITED RETURN FLOW SCENARIO WAS WELL ANTICIPATED AND
SHOULD KEEP OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE PRETTY LOW WITH THIS FRONT.
STILL, MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA.
AVAILABLE INSOLATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
FRONT REACHING OUR WRN ZONES AROUND 00Z AND PUSHING E OF THE CWFA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BASED ON THIS TIMING, WILL REMOVE POPS FROM
ERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND FROM WRN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
MARINE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
*****************************************************************
816 AM EST THU JAN 02 2003
WILL BE ISSUING A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING COASTAL WATERS SEAS FORECAST
INTO AGREEMENT WITH OBS. 42036 STILL SHOWS NEARLY 7 FT. WILL DELAY
SCEC WINDS UNTIL EVENING PERIOD WRN LEGS AND HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE
FOR NOW.
WOOL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
*****************************************************************
230 AM EST THU JAN 02 2003
CURRENTLY: CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH CEILINGS
FROM 1K SE ALA TO 2K ERN THIRD OF CWFA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM BOTH
MID 40S SE ALA TO MID 50S/LOW 50S BIG BEND. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT
COMPARISON SHOWS LOCAL AIR MASS 4-10 DEGREES COOLER AND DRIER. WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO CALM TO LIGHT NW.
DISCUSSION: LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM PRIMARILY N OF BORDER.
SRN STREAM REMAINING MORE ACTIVE. AS IN RECENT DAYS...STRONG PAC JET
CONTINUES TO IMPACT W COAST BUT FOCUS SHIFTS N TO WASHINGTON STATE.
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS LOCAL COLD FRONT IN COMBO WITH VICINITY
SUBTROPICAL JET TO GENERATE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN FL
PENINSULA.
LOCALLY: AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW TRANSLATES TO
QUICK CHANGES. UPR LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT ACTIVE WX MOVING ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND LEAVING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SE CONUS. SURFACE REFLECTION
ALSO OVER N ENGLAND WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD. AMPLE WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS STILL IMPACTING LOCAL AREA. THIS REFLECTED IN 00Z TLH
SOUNDING WITH STRONG INVERSION AT 910MB TRAPPING CLOUDS BELOW AND
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERSION WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY WEAKENING SO
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
A GOOD BET TO REMAIN INTO TONIGHT. HOW MUCH THINNING WILL DETERMINE
MAX TEMPS. GFS FASTEST IN CLEARING US OUT. I.E. GFS SHOWS 70 AT TLH
AS COMPARED TO SLOWER ETA (65) AND NGM (64). BETTING THAT TEMPS WILL
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE MAV.
HOWEVER NEXT SYSTEMS RAPIDLY SETTING UP. VERY STRONG UPPER LOW AND
DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS AR TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED LOW TO
SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING TO CAROLINA
COAST NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAIL TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL
AREA THIS EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT HOURS. GFS/ETA CLOSE WITH GFS A
TAD FASTER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALTHOUGH RRQ OF 100 KT JET AT BASE
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL COME CLOSE TO AREA...SHOULD REMAIN
N WITH UPPER DYNAMICS IN GENERAL REMAINING FURTHER N THAN PREVIOUS
SYSTEM. ALSO...GULF RETURN FLOW HAS NOT HAD MUCH TIME TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED AND WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND FROM
WSW...AHEAD OF FRONT SO NOT IDEAL FLOW TO PULL ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE NWD. IN FACT MODELS CONSISTENT WITH EACH RUN IN LOWERING
POPS. FORECAST WILL BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
...BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON SE AL AHEAD OF FRONT AND CONTINUING INTO
NIGHT HOURS. HIGHEST POPS SE AL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MAIN IMPACT OF FRONT WILL BE TO ALLOW NRN
STREAM TO SURGE SWD WITH CANADIAN COLD AIR TO PENETRATE INTO LOCAL
AREA. CLOUDS THIN TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACH OF
HIGH DEADENS WINDS. MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
USA LATE FRI-SAT THANKS TO A SUCCESSION OF VORT MAXES DROPPING SE
FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS CONSISTENT THAT PREDAWN LOWS DROP TO
MID 20S COLDEST LOCATIONS AND FIRST HARD FREEZE OF SEASON NOT OUT OF
QUESTION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT-SUN. LATEST MEX
SHOWS 26/27 DEGREES AT TLH FOR THESE DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER - NO CONCERNS.
MARINE - WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP. OVERNIGHT BUOYS SHOW WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS WITH OFFSHORE SEAS DOWN TO ABOUT 6-7 FEET. EXPECT
FURTHER DIP IN SEAS BY SUNRISE SO WILL DROP SCA BOTH W/E LEGS.
HOWEVER THIS SHORT LIVED AS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WINDS AND SEAS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AND SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WAKE OF FRONT.
BLOCK
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1050 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003
MESOETA AND RUC SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOWS UP
WELL AS RAGGED DEF ZONE OVER NE AND CNTRL MO.  IN ADDITION...SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING CAUSING SNOW CURRENTLY OVER E CNTRL MO
AND ADJACENT SW IL.  ALL OF THIS FORCING MOVES RAPIDLY OFF TO THE E
AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO DIMINISH OVER AREA DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SFC REPORTS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS ONLY ACCUMULATING ONE
OR TWO TENTHS AN HOUR...SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION UP TO
ANOTHER INCH IN I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH 1 TO 2 IN UIN AREA.  JUST LIGHT
SN OR FZDZ EXPECTED IN SRN COUNTIES.  WILL LEAVE HEADLINES ALONE FOR
NOW...LETTING THEM EXPIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
.STL...WINTER STRM WARNING TDA FM CNTRL AND E CNTRL MO AND SW IL
       WINTER WX ADVSRY TDA FOR PRTNS OF NE MO/W CNTRL IL
BRITT
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CST THU JAN 2 2003
...NEAR TERM...
KIND OF A FRUSTRATING PACKAGE TODAY.  MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE
NEAR TERM BUT DIVERGE LATER AS NORMAL.  NEAR TERM IS DIFFICULT
BECAUSE OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  THESE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING BUT RUC AND MESO ETA WOULD SUGGEST THAT
VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WITH US FOR AWHILE.  BECAUSE OF THIS
LEFT CLOUDS IN TONIGHT.  CONSIDERED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT BUT
OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT WERE PICKING UP ON
THIS AREA SHOW THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING.  NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE
TOMORROW NIGHT AS SMALL DEEPENING H5 LOW APPROACHES OVER RIDGE.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOW DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME
LIFT.  PREVIOUS RUNS DOWN PLAYED THIS FEATURE BUT CURRENT RUN MOVES
IT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THIS AREA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE EAST.  HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET SLIGHTLY
AND EXTENDED THE DURATION.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
NEXT FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS SUNDAY AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.  CURRENT
RUN DEPICTS A WEAKER WAVE THAN PRECIOUS AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE
EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES.  APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY PUSHES FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  CURRENT MODEL
SHOWS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  HAVE EDGED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY.
...LONG TERM...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY TO EACH OTHER
THROUGH TUES (DAY 5) BEFORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL LATE DAY 4 INTO FIRST PART OF DAY5 WITH WARM FROPA PROGGED
TO PASS THROUGH CWA AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PASS OVER CWA
LATE DAY 6 (WED) INTO DAY 7. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WARM FRONT
SO WILL NOT BE INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW. BROADNESS OF
LARGE UPPER TROUGH NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP RIGHT NOW. WARMING TREND STARTS LATE DAY 4
IMPACTING EXTREME WESTERN CWA AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY PART OF
DAY 6 BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IMPACTS CWA FOR REMAINDER OF
DAY 6 AND ALL OF DAY 7. ONCE SURFACE COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...MAJOR CAA SEQUENCE TO INITIATE ACROSS CWA WITH 850HPA
TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM +8C ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO -20C BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WITH THIS SITUATION IS ALWAYS THERE FOR
THE RINGING OUT OF A LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL FURTHER REFINEMENT CAN MAKE FOR
A MORE CERTAIN FORECAST. LASTLY...WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH IF NOT
EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA DAY 6 AND DAY 7 WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WORK INTO CWA ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
.ABR...NONE.
KEEFE/DORN
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN
330 PM CST THU JAN 2 2003
FORECAST FOCUS ON ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EAST TONIGHT AND PATH OF
FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...GFS/ETA/NGM/RUC PROGS TAKE EAST COAST SYSTEM
SLOWLY AWAY FROM CWA WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. EASTERN PARTS OF CWA REMAIN
IN STORM/S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MILWAUKEE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING DECENT INVERSION BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THICK DRY AIRMASS
ABOVE INVERSION LAYER AND MINIMAL DELTA T/S ONLY YIELD LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST. GFS 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURE PROGS COOLS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -12 DEGREES C
OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT MORE
SNOWFALL. WILL ONLY BRING CLEARING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OF THE DIRTY VARIETY.
IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS SLIDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS STATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. BUT GFS AND ETA THEN PART
COMPANY WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. ETA MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN SPEED WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN GFS. THE ETA
SOLUTION WOULD SQUEEZE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS CWA SATURDAY. THE
SLOWER GFS WOULD PLACE BULK OF SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE ISENTROP IMPACT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE NOT ONLY FINAL TRACK
BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE CONFIDENCE CLIMBS HIGHER. THEREFORE
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BROAD BRUSH SOLUTION WITH A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SNOW CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA.
IN THE FAR FAR TERM...SWIFT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO DOMINATE
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
.MKX...NONE.
$$
ZAJDEL
</PRE></TT></td>   wi