AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
930 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD UPPER TROF JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO LIFT            
SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED              
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING             
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN OTHER THAN MODERATE             
TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE                
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD MID-LEVEL                 
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD                
THIS AFTERNOON (H5 TEMPS -25C TO -30C) AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE                   
INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. ON TOP OF THAT...            
MANY CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THE RUC AND NAM POINT TOWARD THE                  
STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH            
THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN                 
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                      
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO APPEAR TO            
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.                                                          
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST TONIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH              
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS                  
BRINGING LOCAL WIND GUST NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. SNOW             
LEVELS HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST              
OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z.                
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA,              
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND TRRN OBSCURATION            
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. EXPECT GRADUAL CEILINGS AND                  
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS BEHIND COLD FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER ISOLATED              
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 20Z FOR THE MOST AREAS.             
BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL VFR            
FROM LINGERING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. RCH            
&&                                                                              
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA                 
NEVADA AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM PST SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
926 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER HIGHS TODAY A FEW                   
DEGREES IN THE SWRN HALF BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST                 
GUIDANCE.  NERN PORTIONS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  12Z NAM/RUC ALSO KEEP            
SFC WINDS SELY WHICH TYPICALLY PRECLUDES TOO SIGNIFICANT OF A WARM              
UP.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
915 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT)...                                               
UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING...DECREASE WINDS AS RIDGE MOVES               
CLOSER. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH SOME AC                 
UPSTREAM MAKING INTO OUR FA OVERNIGHT...TIL THEN CLEAR. PREV DISC               
FOLLOWS:                                                                        
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
LOW STRATO-CU BLANKETED THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO                  
WRAP-AROUND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER                          
TROUGH...WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS              
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. RUC 850MB HIGHER DEWPOINTS                     
CORRESPOND VERY WELL TO THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ERODING            
FROM THE BACK. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY              
AS WELL...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE              
MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS. SHOULD SEE NEAR CALM WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND            
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM            
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE                     
BLUEGRASS OF KENTUCKY.                                                          
WITH GOOD ADIABATIC COOLING...ANY LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE                   
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION FROM 850MB MORNING WARM AIR                
ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY THIN FOG OVER FAR WESTERN AND               
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS REALLY KICK             
OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY 12Z...SO DID NOT INSERT INTO ZONES OR             
GRIDS. SOMETHING TO ANALYZE FOR EVENING FORECASTER.                             
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS            
FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS HIGH TEMPS             
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO LOW 50S OVER W AND            
SW CWA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS VALUES AND CLOSER TO THE             
HIGHER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.                                                        
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROF                   
CURRENTLY OFF WEST COAST OF NOAM AS IT HEADS EAST INTO CNTRL/ERN                
CONUS DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SETS IN              
OVER THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS IS QUICKER DEVELOPING              
PCPN SUN NIGHT...SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR THAT                
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS. SHOULD PCPN DEVELOP THAT EARLY...A               
PERIOD OF -SN POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE LEX VICINITY PER FCST              
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
GFS/NAM BOTH AGREE THAT MORE APPRECIABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR MON NIGHT             
AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES...THOUGH THEN NAM DEVELOPS A                  
SECONDARY CLOSED SFC LOW OVER GULF STATES LIFTING IT NWD INTO OHIO              
VALLEY TUE AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PCPN. GFS               
HAS THIS SECONDARY LOW...BUT IT'S WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST BY 00 UTC             
WED. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE             
MEAN...WHICH HAS WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.              
WILL GO WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NIGHT-TUE-TUE                
NIGHT...BUT KEEPING THEM AT 60% UNTIL UNCERTAINTIES CAN BE IRONED               
OUT.                                                                            
THUNDER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN               
MAGNITUDE OF LLJ...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND K-INDICES INTO THE                  
UPPER 20S. SHOULD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLN VERIFY...WE COULD BE            
DEALING WITH SOME HVY RAIN ISSUES AS WELL...AS MOISTURE INFLOW                  
VECTORS ALIGNED REASONABLY CLOSE WITH FCST CELL MOTIONS WITHIN                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...INDICATING A TRAINING TYPE ENVIRONMENT.              
EXTRAPOLATING THE 84HR NAM SOLUTION COUPLED WITH THE GFS FCST...WE              
COULD SEE A BRIEF DEFORMATION/TROWAL BAND OF RASN MOVE THROUGH THE              
CWA LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED. THOUGH THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF                     
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO WILL GO WITH SIMPLY CHC POPS               
AFTER MIDNIGHT (TUE/WED) INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED.                           
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE YET ANOTHER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE CWA                
FROM THE SW CONUS BY FRI/SAT...PRODUCING SOME PCPN OVER THE CWA ON              
SAT. BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD MENTION OF LOW CHC -RA TO THE FCST FOR            
NEXT SAT.                                                                       
REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MAINLY WENT                
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOK TO              
BE FAIRLY MILD...INTO THE 50S EVEN WITH PCPN. WITH POTENTIAL FOR                
MODERATE/FRESH SOUTHERLIES MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP                
THAT MUCH. WENT WITH A MOS CONSENSUS FOR THEN...MID/UPPER 40S.                  
CCS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
223 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
LOW STRATO-CU BLANKETED THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO                  
WRAP-AROUND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER                          
TROUGH...WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS              
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. RUC 850MB HIGHER DEWPOINTS                     
CORRESPOND VERY WELL TO THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ERODING            
FROM THE BACK. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY              
AS WELL...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE              
MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS. SHOULD SEE NEAR CALM WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND            
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM            
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE                     
BLUEGRASS OF KENTUCKY.                                                          
WITH GOOD ADIABATIC COOLING...ANY LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE                   
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION FROM 850MB MORNING WARM AIR                
ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY THIN FOG OVER FAR WESTERN AND               
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS REALLY KICK             
OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY 12Z...SO DID NOT INSERT INTO ZONES OR             
GRIDS. SOMETHING TO ANALYZE FOR EVENING FORECASTER.                             
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS            
FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS HIGH TEMPS             
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO LOW 50S OVER W AND            
SW CWA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS VALUES AND CLOSER TO THE             
HIGHER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.                                                        
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROF                   
CURRENTLY OFF WEST COAST OF NOAM AS IT HEADS EAST INTO CNTRL/ERN                
CONUS DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SETS IN              
OVER THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS IS QUICKER DEVELOPING              
PCPN SUN NIGHT...SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR THAT                
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS. SHOULD PCPN DEVELOP THAT EARLY...A               
PERIOD OF -SN POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE LEX VICINITY PER FCST              
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
GFS/NAM BOTH AGREE THAT MORE APPRECIABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR MON NIGHT             
AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES...THOUGH THEN NAM DEVELOPS A                  
SECONDARY CLOSED SFC LOW OVER GULF STATES LIFTING IT NWD INTO OHIO              
VALLEY TUE AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PCPN. GFS               
HAS THIS SECONDARY LOW...BUT IT'S WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST BY 00 UTC             
WED. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE             
MEAN...WHICH HAS WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.              
WILL GO WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NIGHT-TUE-TUE                
NIGHT...BUT KEEPING THEM AT 60% UNTIL UNCERTAINTIES CAN BE IRONED               
OUT.                                                                            
THUNDER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN               
MAGNITUDE OF LLJ...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND K-INDICES INTO THE                  
UPPER 20S. SHOULD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLN VERIFY...WE COULD BE            
DEALING WITH SOME HVY RAIN ISSUES AS WELL...AS MOISTURE INFLOW                  
VECTORS ALIGNED REASONABLY CLOSE WITH FCST CELL MOTIONS WITHIN                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...INDICATING A TRAINING TYPE ENVIRONMENT.              
EXTRAPOLATING THE 84HR NAM SOLUTION COUPLED WITH THE GFS FCST...WE              
COULD SEE A BRIEF DEFORMATION/TROWAL BAND OF RASN MOVE THROUGH THE              
CWA LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED. THOUGH THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF                     
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO WILL GO WITH SIMPLY CHC POPS               
AFTER MIDNIGHT (TUE/WED) INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED.                           
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE YET ANOTHER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE CWA                
FROM THE SW CONUS BY FRI/SAT...PRODUCING SOME PCPN OVER THE CWA ON              
SAT. BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD MENTION OF LOW CHC -RA TO THE FCST FOR            
NEXT SAT.                                                                       
REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MAINLY WENT                
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOK TO              
BE FAIRLY MILD...INTO THE 50S EVEN WITH PCPN. WITH POTENTIAL FOR                
MODERATE/FRESH SOUTHERLIES MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP                
THAT MUCH. WENT WITH A MOS CONSENSUS FOR THEN...MID/UPPER 40S.                  
CCS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING GRID/TABULAR/TEXT FORECAST UPDATED JUST COMPLETED FOR                   
WIND/CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING                          
...VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH AMPLITUDE/MERIDIONAL/TROUGH ALONG A                  
LINE FROM ERN NY TO SERN FL LINE AT 12Z SAT. VISIBLE SATELLITE                  
THIS MORNING SHOWING REMNANTS OF ANTECEDENT SNOW COVER LEFT OVER                
FROM UPPER LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT.                                  
KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO PREVIOUSLY                    
PROGGED HIGHS OVER SERN MO...WHERE DIMINISHING WINDS... GREATEST                
INSOLATION AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN AT              
LEAST A 15-18 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE. THE INTERESTING POINT WILL BE               
HOW MUCH THE SNOW COVER WILL TEMPER HIGHS OVER SOUTHERN IL AND                  
WESTERN KY TODAY. I MAY NOT HAVE DONE THE BEST JOB DEPICTING THE                
COLDER AIR IN THIS AREA...BUT TRIED TO TREND TO AT LEAST A 1-2                  
DEGREE LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWIND FROM MAIN SNOW COVER...WHICH              
SHOULD MELT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 40KM GFS AND GFS MOS                    
SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO                
BLEND WINDS WITH CURRENT LAPS DATA.                                             
MINOR ADJUSTEMENTS/LOWERING/ OF DEWPOINTS MADE THIS AFTERNOON                   
ALSO...JUST 1-2 DEGREES OVERALL.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE PRECIPITATION THE                
LAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS            
A NICE H50 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE CWA. INITAL PROBLEM                
THIS MORNING WILL BE WHEN TO CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL AND            
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GFS 925 MB RH DOES NOT CLEAR OUT OF            
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 00Z SUN...WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE               
CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE               
CURRENT CLOUD SITUATION AT 06Z. EVEN THE RUC SHOWS A SLOW TREND TO              
THE CLEARING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL WAIT UNTIL PRESS TIME TO             
DECIDE ON WHAT TO DO...BUT WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD THE RUC/GFS.                
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR TODAY (ESPECIALLY UNDER            
THE CLOUDS)...AS H850 TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST...AND ONLY            
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REALLY BOTTOM             
OUT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PAVE THE WAY FOR LOTS OF            
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP VERY WELL ON THE COOL               
AIR AT 850MB AT 00Z...SO WILL TREND TOWARD COOLEST MOS NUMBERS AND              
POSSIBLY BELOW.                                                                 
BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD...WITH                   
ANOTHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. WITH HIGH             
PRESSURE AT THE SFC DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER            
QUIET DAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL              
ALLOW H850 WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE                  
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE H850 TEMPS TO CLIMB. SO             
WE SHOULD SEE A MUCH WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.             
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE SFC LOW WILL BE             
CENTERED OVER KANSAS...AND THE GFS SHOWS SOME WAA PRECIPITATION                 
BREAKING OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A                
HEALTHY 40-50KT H850 JET. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN              
BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH TOWARD THE REGION...AND KEEPS US               
DRY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IT ISN/T UNTIL 12Z MONDAY WHEN THE NAM                  
ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME HIGHER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS            
HAS DEWS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...(AND EVEN UPPER 40S IN THE            
WEST) AT THAT TIME. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN TAKING THE SFC LOW              
NORTHEAST INTO THE QUAD CITIES AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE             
GFS IS SLOWER...AND SHOWS THE SFC LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AT              
THAT TIME. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MINOR WARM SECTOR PRECIP                
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THOUGH...BUT IT COULD END UP                
BEING A PARTLY CLOUDY AND BENIGN DAY...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT HEADS              
EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO PEAK ON MONDAY...SO THAT SHOULD BE OUR              
WARMEST DAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP SOME.                           
HOWEVER...OUR BIG RAINMAKER STILL LOOMS TO THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY                 
NIGHT...ANOTHER SFC LOW IN MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS...BEGINS TO TAKE                  
SHAPE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST            
SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE GFS STILL MAINTAINING A                
SLOWER MOVEMENT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE EARLIER RUN (12Z) OF             
THE ECMWF. SO WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY              
MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST NO THUNDER               
THREAT...SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME.                               
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHOWS THE SOUTH TEXAS LOW MOVING                 
NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA...AND PHASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL            
SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE               
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ON TUESDAY...ESP IN OUR                   
EASTERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS AS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN            
PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOWFALL THOUGH...AS CRITICAL            
THICKNESSES INITIALLY STAY ABOVE THE SNOW THRESHOLD IN THE EAST.                
HOWEVER...IN THE WEST...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS             
CHANGES HOWEVER AFTER 00Z WED...AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING THE ENTIRE AREA             
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO                
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE               
MORNING...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SKIES BEGIN TO               
CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                    
WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO              
THE POP GRIDS. DON/T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING OR AREAS OF               
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN JUST YET...GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. WHAT              
WE HAVE GOING DEFINTIELY LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GENERAL MODEL            
CONSENSUS. BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...A STEADY INCREASE IN POPS FROM               
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS THE BEST FORECAST TO GO WITH...UNTIL            
WE CAN NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS.                    
NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CW/SMITH                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1138 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW.                                              
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND               
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT LOOKS FINE. WINDS ARE KINDA SLOW TO INCREASE               
THUS FAR...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS LATER THIS              
AFTERNOON AND THE HIGHEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT               
PER MODEL DATA. WILL HAVE TO PONDER WHETHER GUSTS CAN REACH HIGH                
WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE A                  
CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ANOTHER THOUGHT FOR THE                    
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL TO EXTEND THE WIND HEADLINE PAST ITS                     
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 AM. BUFKIT SHOWS ADVISORY CALIBER                  
SPEEDS PERSISTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                        
SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN 5 ALSO LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FEEL              
THAT OUR POPS/WX DO NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS                       
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD TO ADJUST                  
P-TYPE (RAIN/SNOW LINE) AND HAVE UPDATED SECOND PERIOD TO EXPAND                
POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED              
ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES                      
IN...P-TYPE WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE FROZEN STATE. AM ESPECIALLY                 
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WESTERN                      
MARYLAND AND HAVE EVEN INCLUDED THE LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION              
WORDING AS THE RUC AND GFS HINT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VSBYS/CIGS GENERALLY IN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS.                   
WINDS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES (THE SCA/GLW/SCA SANDWICH). SCA                  
CONDITIONS NOT MET YET...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE                
NEXT FEW HOURS...GUSTS REACHING GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON                 
AND CONTINUING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 335 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING EAST THROUGH THE                   
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A DRY SLOT WAS PUNCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID                 
ATLANTIC. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A TROUGH ACROSS              
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A 140-160KT JET DIVING SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL            
CANADA INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 03Z SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS PLACES A 993MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE EAST OF DETROIT. A 994MB               
TRIPLE POINT CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WEST                       
VIRGINIA...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL                       
FLORIDA...AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.            
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWEST FROM THE PARENT CYCLONE              
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                                        
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH THE LINE ECHO WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE               
FORECAST AREA. HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF DAMAGE. THE RISK FOR                  
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WRAPPING UP SHORTLY.                                     
ANTICIPATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE                  
DAY...BUT THINK THEY WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE            
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.                                                          
FIRST CHAPTER OF THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. DURING               
THE AFTERNOON...GFS/NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45KTS             
OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER...AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE DUE TO THE                   
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE              
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.                                                           
FINALLY...HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN 5 COUNTIES                
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL             
BE SQUEEZED BY VERY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT LAKE            
EFFECT FOR A PERIOD AS WELL.                                                    
COMBINATION OF PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ERODE              
MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...YIELDING A SUNNY (YET WINDY)                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TO MVFR WITH CIGS                  
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO AROUND 3KFT THIS AFTN. HWVR...WINDS WILL BECOME             
A SIG ISSUE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST BY LATE AFTN...WITH GUSTS                
ABOVE 30 KT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR MRB/DCA/IAD/BWI/MTN. LESSER               
WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT CHO. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.                                                           
MARINE...HIGH END GALE WARNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS                       
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS BUFKIT               
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOUCHED 50KTS AT SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE WATER               
FOR AN HOUR OR TOO...HESITATE TO UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING UNTIL               
THE EVENT UNFOLDS (IT WOULD BE VERY MARGINAL STORM CRITERIA                     
ANYWAYS).                                                                       
WATER LEVELS ARE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS                  
WAXING TO A FULL MOON. WATER LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW PREDICTED                 
LEVELS BY EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.                                   
LONG TERM...NOTHING WAS ADJUSTED DUE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER EVENT.              
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...WIND ADVISORY FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                                
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.                                
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 UNTIL 7               
     AM SUNDAY.                                                                 
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.                                
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 UNTIL 7 AM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048-049-054 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.                        
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>055 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                            
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.         
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...PELOQUIN                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/JB                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
930 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE ERN TROF/               
CNTRL RDG/WRN TROF UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS...WITH CWA IN NW FLOW             
ALF BTWN CTNRL RDG AND ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...1026MB SFC HI PRES                
NOTED OVER NRN ONTARIO...WITH SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING SWD THRU THE               
CTNRL GRT LKS. LES/LK CLD OVER ECNTRL LK SUP/ERN ZNS IN THE PROCESS             
OF COLLAPSING AS LWR/SHARP INVRN ARND H9 AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z                 
TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW/00Z GRB SDNG AND LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z               
APX/GRB SDNGS INVADES THE AREA. SFC DWPTS IN THE CORE OF THE                    
COLDER/DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO JUST E OF ANJ AOB 0F. DESPITE PRESENCE            
OF LLVL DRYING...MID CLD ASSOCIATED WITH STRG WAD AHD OF CNTRL RDG              
IS CURRENTLY OVERSPRDG THE FA. SOME PTCHY -SN HAS FALLEN ACRS THE MN            
ARROWHEAD THIS EVNG WHERE 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT A BIT SHARPER AND DLH            
88D SHOWS RETURNS AOA 20DBZ/00Z INL SDNG SHOWS FAIRLY HI RH THRU A              
DEEP LYR (H85 DWPT DEPRESSION 3C). BUT ECHOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING            
AS DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG (H85 DWPT DEPRESSION                
15C) AND PCPN SLIDES TOWARD THE WRN CWA WHERE 23Z TAMDAR SDNG FM CMX            
INDICATES H8 DWPT DEPRESSION OF 10C.                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT REVOLVE ARND PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER/IMPACT             
ON LO TEMPS.                                                                    
00Z RUC/NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOW CENTER OF SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO                   
SLIDING JUST SLOWLY SE OVERNGT UNDER NW FLOW ALF TO THE W OF                    
RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING ERN TROF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING               
HIER MID LVL RH TENDING TO DRY UP AS THE AIR MOVES INTO LINGERING               
DRY AIR/NW FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SKY FCST HAS THESE EXPECTED               
TRENDS WELL IN HAND...WL LOWER GOING FCST LO TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR             
ECNTRL SINCE CURRENT TEMP AT ERY ALREADY DOWN TO 12F (FCST LO 10F)              
AND TO REFLECT VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ATTM WITH LGT WINDS UNDER SFC              
RDG AXIS TO PERSIST OVER THE E HALF THRU 12Z SUN. SHARPER ISENTROPIC            
LIFT FCST ON THE 290K SFC TNGT/HIER H7 RH OVER THE WCNTRL WL HOLD LO            
TEMPS UP OVER THE W...SO NO CHGS PLANNED THERE. PREFER THE 18Z GFS              
QPF...WHICH SHOWS SOME LGT PCPN BRUSHING THE KEWEENAW THRU 12Z. THIS            
PLACEMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH OBSVD HIER MSTR OVER INL...STRONGER AND            
LONGER DURATION ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC...SOME LVLL                     
MOISTENING OVER LK SUP/UPSLOPE IN EXPECTED ESE FLOW...AND GREATER               
DISTANCE FM THE DRIER AIR TO THE S AND E. BUT EVEN OVER THE                     
KEWEENAW...GRDL LLVL WSHFT TO THE ESE WL TEND TO MAINTAIN SYNOPTIC              
SCALE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR. SO WL MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN                     
FLURRIES. WL REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN ELSEWHERE.                                  
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE BY SUN AFTN WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE                
SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY EVEN WHERE LITTLE SNOW OCCURS. TEMPS SHOULD BE              
SIMILAR TO TODAY.                                                               
MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS FOR A PERIOD SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM AHEAD             
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT WX OVR UPR LAKES               
MON AFTN. SE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE               
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF W HALF OF CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN WAY OF             
SHEARING WINDS AT TOP OF INVERSION SO THE DRIZZLE DOES NOT APPEAR TO            
BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT THIS POINT. ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO UPR            
LAKES MON AFTN FOR ONLY SNOW AND TO BRING PCPN INTO E CWA.                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES NOT REALLY INCREASE UNTIL MON NIGHT SO SNOW                
ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH.                                    
EXTENDED (MON NIGHT THROUGH SAT)...AGREEMENT STILL SHAKY WITH SFC               
LOW PLACEMENT AND RESULTING SNOW CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE                  
NIGHT. 00Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATED LK ENAHNCEMENT POSSIBLE              
OFF LK SUPERIOR STARTING MON NIGHT ON KEWEENAW AND SHIFTING TO N                
FLOW FAVORED AREAS ON TUE. PRIMARY UPR LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR SFC LOW IS STILL JUST ENTERING W COAST OF CONUS SO              
WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AND AMBITIOUS WITH POPS. 12Z             
ECMWF NOW BACK TO AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOK WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO             
SOUTH. THIS WAS EC SOLN FROM A COUPLE DAYS BACK. OBVIOUSLY...TRACK              
OF SFC LOW HAS VARIED QUITE A BIT OVR LAST FEW DAYS AND LIKELY WILL             
NOT GET NAILED DOWN FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS. A FARTHER NORTH LOW                
PRES SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE EMERGING AS CONSENSUS SO WITH FORECAST AREA             
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF                    
FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TUE. INCREASED POPS OVR ALL AREAS MON NIGHT                 
THROUGH TUE DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT WIDESPREAD              
SYNOPTIC SNOW. EVEN 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT. ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY FOR            
LK EHANCEMENT NUDGED POPS HIGHER NEAR LK SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. THE LOW            
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY INTO QUEBEC ON WED WITH LK EFFECT DIMINISHING.              
WEAKER AND MAINLY NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS UPR               
LAKES LATE THU INTO FRI SO WENT WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LGT SNOW                 
THOSE PERIODS.                                                                  
COORD WITH APX.                                                                 
JLA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LINGERING LES TODAY...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE            
TONIGHT INTO SUN AND PCPN POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE.                               
WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A TROF OFF THE                
WEST COAST A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF FROM HUDSON BAY AND THE            
CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE SFC...NNW FLOW PREVAILED            
BTWN A TROF INTO THE ERN LAKES AND A RDG FROM NRN MANITOBA THROUGH              
MN. UPSTREAM A WARM FRONT EXTENDED INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LOW            
PRES OVER SRN ALBERTA. 900-850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C SUPPORTED                
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN UPR MI. RADAR INDICATED                 
LIGHT LES HAD DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z WITH FEW DISTINCT BANDS.                     
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NAM FCST SNDGS THAT INDICATE            
LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. IR LOOP SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN                      
DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN ALREADY STREAMING FROM SRN SASK/MANITOBA INTO            
NRN MN.                                                                         
TODAY...EXPECT WEAK LES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM SCT -SHSN TO               
FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON AS THE RDG BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA AND                     
INVERSION HGTS LOWER FROM 4K FT TO 2K-3K FT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY              
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE                  
GREATEST OF THESE LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BTWN MARQUETTE AND                 
GRAND MARAIS WHICH IS FAVORED BY LONGER FETCH LENGTH AND 330-340                
FLOW. OTHERWISE...AS LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES FADE OVER THE WEST                    
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.                                                  
TONIGHT INTO SUN...THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WAS PREFERRED WITH THE               
TIMING/POSITION THE WAA MOISTURE BAND. BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF SEEM                
OVERDONE GIVEN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE            
900-700 LYR THAT HAS TO BE OVERCOME. THE GFS SHOWS BEST                         
LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE 290K-295K LYR A BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LAGGING              
280K-285K MOISTENING. SO...LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM                     
APPROPRIATE WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.                       
SUN NIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH 900-700 MB               
MOISTURE THINS OUT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ ALONG WITH               
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.                                                              
MON INTO TUE...MDLS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH               
SCENARIO AFFECTING UPR MI IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. WHILE NRN                
STREAM SHRTWV REMAINS MOSTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SRN PORTION OF               
THE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST                           
THAT NRN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT SUPPORTS INCREASED PCPN CHANCES WITH MAINLY SNOW BY MON               
AFTERNOON INTO TUE. ENOUGH MDL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN                       
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN SO THAT PCPN CHANCES LEFT IN THE CHANCE                  
CATEGORY FOR NOW. EVEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MDL DETAILS BY DAY                
3...POSSIBILITY FOR -FZDZ TUE STILL REMAINS WITH GFS SHOWING 700-500            
MB DRYING OVER CNTRL/EAST UPR MI BY 18Z/TUE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
423 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEEKEND WARMUP UNDER WAY AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID            
40S FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND THE UPPER 30S IN WESTERN             
ILLINOIS. 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PUSHED BACK UP ABOVE 0C               
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE              
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +4 TO +8C RANGE BY             
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROF               
SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM UP NICELY...HOWEVER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS              
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW RUNS.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO LESS                
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...TYPICALLY OUR REALLY WARM DAYS HAVE            
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN SOUTHERLY.  STILL...THE HIGHS                
ADVERTISED BY MOS LOOK REASONABLE SO HAVE FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY.              
THE NEXT IN OUR SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN                  
AFFECTING THE CWFA ON MONDAY WITH WEATHER INCLUDING EVERYTHING BUT              
THE KITCHEN SINK.  OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING INSTABILITY DECREASES ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.               
800-600MB DELTA/THETA-E IS AT OR BELOW 0 INDICATING ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY...K-INDEX VALUES WILL BE UP IN THE 25-30 RANGE AND EVEN             
SURFACE BASED LI'S WILL RIGHT AROUND 0 ACCORDING TO THE GFS.  IN MID            
JANUARY...THAT MORE THAN ENOUGH HINTS FOR ME TO INSERT THUNDER INTO             
THE FORECAST.  NOT REALLY SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS YET WHICH             
WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY                 
AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS TO FEED ON...BUT THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR             
LOOKS PRETTY STOUT.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.              
UP UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE                    
AGREEMENT.  AFTER THAT THEY DIVERGE PRETTY WIDELY.  GFS WRAPS THE               
SYSTEM UP AND SHOOTS IT OFF NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.                     
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE                   
POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS AND COLD AIR ALOFT             
FLOWS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE ETA             
DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE TAIL END OF THE                 
FRONT DOWN ON THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING WHICH RIPPLES UP              
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON TUESDAY THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS                 
SCENARIO DEVELOPS A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND                
ILLINOIS THAT DUMPS WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE ST LOUIS METRO             
AREA AND POINTS EAST. SINCE THE WAVE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE                
THIS STORM IS JUST COMING ON-SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST...AND WE HAVE            
YET TO GET GOOD DATA SAMPLING ON IT...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH THE            
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.                                             
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH A WARMUP             
AFTER THE MONDAY/TUESDAY STORM...THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN            
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  ASIDE FROM OUR COOL-DOWN ON MONDAY AND               
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.                  
CARNEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ON OR ABOUT JANUARY 15TH...WFO ST LOUIS WILL BEGIN ISSUING AN                   
AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH EVERY SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF TERMINAL                   
AERODROME FORECASTS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
813 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP ALL POPS FOR THE EVENING AND                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS              
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NO                
RAIN/SNOW SEEN BY OBSERVATIONS OR RADAR IN ARIZONA OR SOUTHERN                  
NEVADA. 00Z RUC AND NAM ALSO DO NOT DEPICT ANY POPS IN WESTERN NEW              
MEXICO UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPS IN THE                
WEST AND MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER. ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE                   
WSW HIGHLIGHTS...WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW UPGRADE THE WATCH AS NEEDED.            
49/GB                                                                           
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2006...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING            
NORTHEAST...SHOULD BE EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT              
NO PCPN WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.                
SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT/THINNING TEMPORARILY THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM OF MOISTURE BEGINS            
TO BE SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.                            
STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO            
NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE DETAILS IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY FORECAST...BUT               
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE                
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING SUNDAY AND SPREADING AREAWIDE IN              
THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES IN. EXPECT A GOOD             
5 TO 15 DEGREE COOLDOWN IN THE WEST FROM HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO                     
MONDAY...WITH A COOLDOWN RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES IN THE EAST.             
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL NEW                  
MEXICO WILL STAND AS IS FOR NOW. FEEL UPPER RIO GRANDE MAY                      
ACCUMULATE SOME SNOW BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PUT THEM IN A                     
WATCH...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY                   
NIGHT.   A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST NEW                  
MEXICO FOR AROUND 100 AM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM               
GETS WETTER AND COLDER FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE               
FASTER DEVELOPING THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. AND WITH THE BRISK                
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS FORECAST BY MOS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW              
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE COLORADO BORDER            
ACROSS UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME.                              
WINDS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO PICK UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST SLOPES OF               
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE            
POINTS TOWARDS MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE CONSIDERATION OF HIGHLIGHTS TO LATER                 
SHIFTS.                                                                         
WILL SPLIT GRIDS ON TUESDAY TO CLEAR OUT PCPN BY MIDDAY. MODEL                  
TRENDS POINT TOWARDS RAPIDLY DECREASING ACTIVITY BY MIDMORNING                  
TUESDAY. FEW AND INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS.                   
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE             
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT                
FOR NMZ001-NMZ002-NMZ004-NMZ008.                                                
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON              
FOR NMZ005-NMZ006-NMZ007.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1033 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...                                              
ONE MORE UPDATE...UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LK ONTARIO AND ONTO ALLEGHENY                
PLATEAU...AND THEN ACROSS THE CAYUGA AND SENECA LAKES...HAS PRODUCED            
A DECENT AREA OF SNOW.  THIS NNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND BUFKIT ETA            
PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT TO MAINTAIN               
THIS SNOW.  THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASE POPS IN THE FINGER LAKES...AND            
AREAS JUST SOUTH TO LIKELY. ALSO INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN AND                  
AROUND THIS AREA.  EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF FLUFF AROUND AND SOUTH OF            
THE LAKES (THOUGH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA)...AND             
AROUND AN INCH IN THE SURROUNDING AREA.  -CEMPA                                 
ANOTHER UPDATE(0225Z)...THIS ONE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR                
SERN COUNTIES AS INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SE IS HOLDING OFF DRY              
AIR FROM THE NW...PARTICULARLY IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES.  BOTH             
RUC/ETA12 SHOW INDICATIONS OF THIS.  WENT WITH 2-4" THERE...AS SNOW             
COULD HOLD ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  ALSO...ADJUSTED WX/POPS TO REFLECT               
THOSE AREAS WHERE STEADY SNOW IS NO LONGER FALLING.  LOOKS LIKE                 
WINDS MAY BE STARTING TO PICK UP AS WELL. SOME ELEVATED SITES                   
REPORTING 35-45 KT GUSTS ATTM.  -CEMPA                                          
FIRST UPDATE(0043Z)...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT                         
TRENDS...SNOW WINDING DOWN OR ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH EXPECT            
TO SEE SOME SCT LAKE INDUCED SHSN REDEVELOP THERE SHORTLY...BUT                 
LIGHT STUFF IN GENERAL.  FOLLOWING THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM AS ITS            
PRECIP...FG...AND DEFORMATION FIELDS ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE                
CURRENT PRECIP WELL.  RUC 850 MB DEFORMATION SHIFTS EAST AS                     
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  BANDS HAVE BEEN                     
FORMING...BUT EVERY TIME ONE GETS GOING...THE DRY AIR SQUASHES IT               
WITHIN THE HOUR.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND WOULD EXPECT THE             
BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR            
WIND ADVISORY...STRONG WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE BASED ON                   
MESONET OBS...THOUGH FEW OF THESE ARE AT THE HIGHEST                            
ELEVATIONS...BUT 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE SFC (EVIDENCED ON PROFLIER               
AND TAMDAR DATA) ARE JUST NOT MIXING DOWN YET.  HOWEVER WITH DEEPING            
SFC LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP...AND STILL COULD SEE ADV               
CRITERIA GUSTS MIXING DOWN.  PREVIOUS FORECAST DOING OK...ALTHOUGH              
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT. OTHER THAN                      
THAT...JUST SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...AND SENT A                  
REFRESHED SET OF ZONES.  -CEMPA                                                 
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE             
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z.                
HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO                
WIND CHILLS.                                                                    
SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE             
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH             
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH              
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH                         
TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.              
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  HIGH              
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST                  
MONDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN             
STORM SYSTEM.  WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF                 
UNTIL AFTERNOON.  BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY            
RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT              
AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.  -DJN/MJ                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                            
OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO                    
WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO                   
EASTERN CANADA.  A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN                
EVENT.                                                                          
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED              
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.                                                          
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES             
COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE               
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE.                            
ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN.  -MJ                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (15/00Z - 16/00Z)...                                                  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVRNGT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE CST,             
BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST. IFR CIGS ACRS THE RGN ERLY THIS                
EVNG, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ERN SITES (UCA, AVP, BGM). CONDITIONS               
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN IFR LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO               
THE RGN. SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW               
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ON SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD AREA-WIDE, BUT                
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY, SPCLY AT ITH WHERE NRLY            
FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLDS AND PSBLY SOME FLURRIES.                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AS ALL PRECIP IS NOW SNOW...THE HYDRO THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH ENDED.              
EVEN COOKS FALLS STARTING TO RECEDE AFTER CRESTING AT AROUND 9.5                
FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING.                                                      
OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER              
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE.  -MJ                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062                 
.PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR                    
PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
925 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...                                              
ANOTHER UPDATE...THIS ONE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR SERN                  
COUNTIES AS INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SE IS HOLDING OFF DRY AIR               
FROM THE NW...PARTICULARLY IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES.  BOTH                 
RUC/ETA12 SHOW INDICATIONS OF THIS.  WENT WITH 2-4" THERE...AS SNOW             
COULD HOLD ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  ALSO...ADJUSTED WX/POPS TO REFLECT               
THOSE AREAS WHERE STEADY SNOW IS NO LONGER FALLING.  LOOKS LIKE                 
WINDS MAY BE STARTING TO PICK UP AS WELL. SOME ELEVATED SITES                   
REPORTING 35-45 KT GUSTS ATTM.  -CEMPA                                          
FIRST UPDATE(0043Z)...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT                         
TRENDS...SNOW WINDING DOWN OR ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH EXPECT            
TO SEE SOME SCT LAKE INDUCED SHSN REDEVELOP THERE SHORTLY...BUT                 
LIGHT STUFF IN GENERAL.  FOLLOWING THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM AS ITS            
PRECIP...FG...AND DEFORMATION FIELDS ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE                
CURRENT PRECIP WELL.  RUC 850 MB DEFORMATION SHIFTS EAST AS                     
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  BANDS HAVE BEEN                     
FORMING...BUT EVERY TIME ONE GETS GOING...THE DRY AIR SQUASHES IT               
WITHIN THE HOUR.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND WOULD EXPECT THE             
BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR            
WIND ADVISORY...STRONG WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE BASED ON                   
MESONET OBS...THOUGH FEW OF THESE ARE AT THE HIGHEST                            
ELEVATIONS...BUT 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE SFC (EVIDENCED ON PROFLIER               
AND TAMDAR DATA) ARE JUST NOT MIXING DOWN YET.  HOWEVER WITH DEEPING            
SFC LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP...AND STILL COULD SEE ADV               
CRITERIA GUSTS MIXING DOWN.  PREVIOUS FORECAST DOING OK...ALTHOUGH              
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT. OTHER THAN                      
THAT...JUST SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...AND SENT A                  
REFRESHED SET OF ZONES.  -CEMPA                                                 
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE             
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z.                
HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO                
WIND CHILLS.                                                                    
SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE             
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH             
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH              
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH                         
TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.              
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  HIGH              
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST                  
MONDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN             
STORM SYSTEM.  WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF                 
UNTIL AFTERNOON.  BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY            
RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT              
AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.  -DJN/MJ                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                            
OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO                    
WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO                   
EASTERN CANADA.  A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN                
EVENT.                                                                          
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED              
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.                                                          
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES             
COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE               
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE.                            
ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN.  -MJ                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (15/00Z - 16/00Z)...                                                  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVRNGT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE CST,             
BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST. IFR CIGS ACRS THE RGN ERLY THIS                
EVNG, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ERN SITES (UCA, AVP, BGM). CONDITIONS               
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN IFR LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO               
THE RGN. SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW               
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ON SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD AREA-WIDE, BUT                
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY, SPCLY AT ITH WHERE NRLY            
FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLDS AND PSBLY SOME FLURRIES.                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AS ALL PRECIP IS NOW SNOW...THE HYDRO THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH ENDED.              
EVEN COOKS FALLS STARTING TO RECEDE AFTER CRESTING AT AROUND 9.5                
FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING.                                                      
OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER              
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE.  -MJ                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062                 
.PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR                    
PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
743 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...                                              
UPDATE...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...SNOW WINDING                
DOWN OR ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT LAKE             
INDUCED SHSN REDEVELOP THERE SHORTLY...BUT LIGHT STUFF IN GENERAL.              
FOLLOWING THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM AS ITS PRECIP...FG...AND                   
DEFORMATION FIELDS ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIP WELL.             
RUC 850 MB DEFORMATION SHIFTS EAST AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING WORKS IN               
FROM THE WEST.  BANDS HAVE BEEN FORMING...BUT EVERY TIME ONE GETS               
GOING...THE DRY AIR SQUASHES IT WITHIN THE HOUR.  THIS TREND SHOULD             
CONTINUE...AND WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO               
CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR WIND ADVISORY...STRONG WINDS HAVE            
YET TO MATERIALIZE BASED ON MESONET OBS...THOUGH FEW OF                         
THESE ARE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE SFC             
(EVIDENCED ON PROFLIER AND TAMDAR DATA) ARE JUST NOT MIXING DOWN                
YET.  HOWEVER WITH DEEPING SFC LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN                 
UP...AND STILL COULD SEE ADV CRITERIA GUSTS MIXING DOWN.  PREVIOUS              
FORECAST DOING OK...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED                
DOWN A BIT. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO THE              
GRIDS...AND SENT A REFRESHED SET OF ZONES.  -CEMPA                              
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE             
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z.                
HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO                
WIND CHILLS.                                                                    
SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE             
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH             
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH              
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH                         
TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.              
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  HIGH              
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST                  
MONDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN             
STORM SYSTEM.  WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF                 
UNTIL AFTERNOON.  BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY            
RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT              
AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.  -DJN/MJ                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                            
OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO                    
WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO                   
EASTERN CANADA.  A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN                
EVENT.                                                                          
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED              
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.                                                          
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES             
COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE               
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE.                            
ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN.  -MJ                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (15/00Z - 16/00Z)...                                                  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVRNGT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE CST,             
BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST. IFR CIGS ACRS THE RGN ERLY THIS                
EVNG, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ERN SITES (UCA, AVP, BGM). CONDITIONS               
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN IFR LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO               
THE RGN. SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW               
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ON SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD AREA-WIDE, BUT                
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY, SPCLY AT ITH WHERE NRLY            
FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLDS AND PSBLY SOME FLURRIES.                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AS ALL PRECIP IS NOW SNOW...THE HYDRO THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH ENDED.              
EVEN COOKS FALLS STARTING TO RECEDE AFTER CRESTING AT AROUND 9.5                
FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING.                                                      
OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER              
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE.  -MJ                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062                 
.PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR                    
PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
430 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                              
DIFFICULT FCST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 986 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG THE             
SRN NJ COAST AT 21Z. THIS IS IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THE               
GFS FCST. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACCORDING TO SFC OBS AND SAT               
PIX...AND CONSISTENT GFS CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED FOR THIS FCST.               
COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO NJ ATTM. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT             
HAVE MOVED INTO ERN PA...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S. TONIGHTS              
FCST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES JUST TO OUR                 
EAST. COLD AIR WILL GET WRAPPED IN FROM THE W AND NW THIS                       
EVENING...WITH TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY AND WINDS PICKING UP                      
SUBSTANTIALLY. WIND ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA              
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 PM SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE              
AS NW WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.             
GENERALLY EXPECTING CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURING W TO E                
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CHANGEOVER SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS WRN ORANGE              
COUNTY AROUND 00Z...SPREADING INTO THE NYC METRO BY LATE EVENING AND            
CHANGING OVER ACROSS SRN CT AND LI LATE TONIGHT. COULD BE A BRIEF               
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL AROUND THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER.                 
EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RELATIVE TO THE POSN OF HEAVIER PRECIP               
BANDS AT THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...BUT              
WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE             
WITH THE IDEA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ICING UP OF               
ROADS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. WITH THE STRONG NW                     
WINDS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL            
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AM.             
HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FROM ANY WINTER ADVISORIES AND CONTINUE                
WITH THE SPS FOR NOW...AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT             
ENOUGH AND AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE VSBY CRITERIA FOR SNOW/BLSN ADV              
BEING MET.                                                                      
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS CAA KICKS IN. TEMPS WILL               
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG CAA                 
CONTINUES.                                                                      
SNOW SHOULD END FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND               
SUN AM AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...LEAVING              
BEHIND CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPS FOR SUN AFTERNOON.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                        
VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS            
DIMINISH. EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE LESSENING...RADIATIONAL            
COOLING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN                    
WIDESPREAD TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER AREAS.                   
LOOKING FOR UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN NYC METRO. WIND CHILLS WILL             
BE DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN SOME AREAS               
SUN NIGHT. MON SHOULD BE QUIET AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN                 
SYSTEMS...WITH MAX TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE 30S.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
STUCK WITH HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WARM FRONT               
WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM               
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE            
REGION BY LATE TUE PM. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE               
CWA ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. LOOKS LIKE NO PTYPE PROBLEMS WITH THIS                
EVENT AS MILD SW FLOW KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT PERHAPS               
FOR A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN FAR NW SXNS WED NIGHT AS THE PRECIP ENDS.                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN THU AND FRI...AND REMAINS OFFSHORE                
SAT. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW TO THE EAST OF              
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS HAVING RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE-HALF              
AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL                   
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THUS...NO              
LONGER EXPECTING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS.                              
THE NAUGATUCK RIVER AT WATERBURY ROSE STEADILY THIS MORNING AND HAS             
BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 11 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RAINS                 
HAVING LESSENED...IT SHOULD HOLD THEN FALL TONIGHT.                             
ANY PRECIP BEYOND THIS EVENING WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW              
AND SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO RUNOFF.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TODAY IS CLEARLY ONE OF THE MORE DIFFICULT DAYS AT THE AVIATION                 
DESK. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO VARY BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN IFR AND                  
MVFR...WITH THE VSBYS BEHAVING SIMILARLY. LATEST ETA12...RUC AND                
SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORT A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS                     
EVENING...BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN              
THE MVFR CATEGORY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE...BUT THEN DETERIORATE                  
AROUND 05Z TO 07Z AS A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SNOW BAND TRANSLATES             
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY STRONG NW            
FLOW WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY                   
IMPROVE AFTER 12Z SUN THOUGH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WITH            
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH               
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS DROPPED TO 10-15 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 7 FT SEAS AS            
CENTER OF LOW PASSES OVER AREA WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY                  
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT                 
APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING...                
WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A STORM WARNING...AS WINDS             
RANGE FROM 25-30G35-45KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. WINDS                   
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN WATERS ON MON.                       
FLAGS COME DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON...ENDING MON NIGHT ON OCEAN              
WATERS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL ANOTHER STORM             
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON WED.                                              
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WIND ADVISORY FOR CTZ005>012 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 5 PM                  
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NJZ002>006-011 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 5 PM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
NY...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ067>081 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 5 PM                  
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330-335-355 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM            
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ330-335-350-353-355 UNTIL 10 PM                
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ338 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350-353 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CNJ                                                                    
AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...DW                                                         
MARINE...MPS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
400 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...                                              
TONIGHT...DVLPG DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHEILD WAS OVR MUCH OF                
UPSTATE NY AND NRN PA AS SFC LO AND ASSCTD MID-LVL CYCLONE SHIFT TO             
THE COAST. LL NW FLO OF MUCH COLDER AIR WAS MOVG INTO NE PA AND THE             
CATSKILLS WITH A RAPID CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT OCNLY MODERATE SNOWFALL.             
GFS AND RUC BOTH SHOWG A BAND OF FGEN FORCING AT 700 MB AND COLDER              
MID-LVL/S TEMPS STAYING MAINLY N AND W OF A COOPERSTOWN TO ELM LINE             
THRU 06Z. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH MORE STEADY SNOWFALL. COLDER                     
MID-LVL/S TEMPS WERE TRANSLATING TO BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN WRN            
NY WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NRN 1/2 OF NY THIS EVE. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE            
AVBL WITH THE ASSCTD FGEN FRCG IN NC NY AS RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY               
CONTS TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING NRTHWRD INTO NC NY. THUS                
WILL HV 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ONEIDA/MADISON CO/S. REST OF UPSTATE              
NY AND NRN PA...1-3 INCHES WITH 3 INCHES MAINLY AT HIGHER TERRAIN.              
IN THE AVP AREA UP TO AN INCH...WITH 2 INCHES PSBL OVER THE POCONOS.            
AFTER THE DEFORMATION BAND LIFTS NE BY 6Z...RAPIDLY CLRG WILL TAKE              
PLACE AS SIGNFCT LL DRYING AND SUSBC BEGIN. INV CRASHES DOWN TO BLO             
850 MB. SOME RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER THE INV              
IN THE FINGER LAKES REGIONS TO BGM/ELM AREA. SEE SCT SW-/SW-- AS                
SOME LAKE ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES MOISTURE IS FACTORED IN.                     
WILL KEEP WIND ADVY UP FOR MUCH OF NE PA TO THE WRN CATSKILLS SEE               
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH GIVEN STRG PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT WILL TAKE MUCH            
LONGER FOR THE DENSER COLD AIR TO WORK SE OF THE POCONOS AND                    
CATSKILLS...YET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONT TO INCREASE AS THE              
COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AND THE COASTAL LOW             
TAKES OFF. THIS IS RECIPE FOR STRGR MTN WINDS. ADVY WILL BE UP UNTIL            
6 AM SUNDAY.                                                                    
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE             
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z.                
HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO                
WIND CHILLS.                                                                    
SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE             
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH             
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH              
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH                         
TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.              
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  HIGH              
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST                  
MONDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN             
STORM SYSTEM.  WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF                 
UNTIL AFTERNOON.  BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY            
RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT              
AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.  -DJN/MJ                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                            
OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO                    
WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO                   
EASTERN CANADA.  A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN                
EVENT.                                                                          
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE                   
DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED              
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.                                                          
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES             
COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE               
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE.                            
ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN.  -MJ                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (14/18Z - 15/18Z)...                                                  
PRECIPITATION CONTS TO FALL IN THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE...AS             
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WAS RUSHING ACRS THE CWA ATTM. THIS WILL TURN              
ANY LEFT OVER RAIN TO SNOW. AS OF 19Z THE RAIN SNOW LINE WAS MAINLY             
WEST OF UCA-BGM-IPT. CIGS/VSBYS IN THE SNOW WERE RUNNING IFR...IN               
THE RAIN AREA THEY WERE GENERALLY IFR WITH MORE VARIABILITY. ALSO NW            
WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS EXPECTED IN NE PA...AT AVP. WIND GUSTS                  
TONIGHT ACRS C NY TAF SITES AT OR A LITTLE ABV 30 KTS. AS COLDER AND            
DRIER AIR WORKS IN...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME VFR ALL TAF             
SITES...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BGM...ITH AND               
SYR. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN THRU 12Z IN LIGHT SN SHWRS IN              
THESE AREAS. REST OF TAFS VFR LATE EVENING ON. - NICOSIA                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WATER LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH FLOOD STAGE AT COOKS FALLS ON THE                  
DELAWARE RIVER THROUGH THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...NO FURTHER                    
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...AS COLDER RUSHES IN AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS             
DOWN THE RUNOFF.                                                                
OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER              
GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE.  -MJ                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062                 
.PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR                    
PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
110 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...                                                 
UPDATE 3...UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO FRESHEN UP TEMPS AND WX.                  
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW RAPIDLY OCCURRING ACRS FINGER LAKES TO WRN MOHAWK            
VLLY. ADJUSTING SNOW AMNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACRS NC NY....WITH               
1-3 INCHES ACRS THE REST OF C NY AND FAR NRN PA. GFS AND RUC BOTH               
SHW STRGEST 700 MB FGEN SLIDES NE FM WRN NY TO NC NY AND NE NY                  
TONIGHT. KBGM RADAR IMAGERYS HAS A RATHER "FRACTURED" LOOK...WITH               
KBUF 88D HVG MORE "SMOOTH" ECHOES INDICATIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW            
AND ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. 700 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN                 
GENERALLY BTWN -10C TO -12C IN WRN AND NRN NY THRU THIS EVE WITH                
BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH MORE COINCIDENT WITH THE FGEN FORCING.                
FARTHER S AND E...SEE MORE "GRAINY" TYPE OF SNOW AS CLOUDS WERE                 
DEFINITELY GLACIATING...BUT MAX OMEGA IS LOWER THAN THE -10C TEMP               
RANGE IN MUCH OF THE BGM CWA. ALSO TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW WILL              
CUT ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMNTS...ESP IN NE PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE               
40S AND EVEN LOW 50S IN THE POCONOS. WILL UPDATE SPS TO FRESHEN UP              
WORDING AS WELL.                                                                
UPDATE 2...WILL DROP FFA FOR CATSKILLS AND OTSEGO CO. NO FLOOD                  
PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVY FOR POCONOS AND SULLIVAN             
CO FOR STARTERS. MET AND MAV GUIDC STRGLY SUPPORTS ADVY CRITERIA                
WINDS IN THESE AREAS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR MORE THAN 6 HRS AT MSV            
OVER 25 KTS. STRGR GRADIENT WILL BE ACR NE PA AND SERN NY AS LO                 
WINDS UP ON THE COAST. COLDER AND MUCH DENSER AIR WILL RUSH IN VERY             
QUICKLY INTO CNTRL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA N OF THE HIGHER MTNS. THIS             
WILL IN EFFECT SLOW DOWN THE WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRG PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT. IN NE PA...A LAG IN THE COLDER AIR THIS EVE WILL LEAD TO              
STRGR WINDS...ESP OVR THE POCONOS WHERE FARTHER S AND E...THERE                 
DEEPER COLD AIR WILL TAKE A LOT LONGER TO REACH. WILL HV GUSTS TO 50            
MPH IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE SULLIVAN CO. REST OF ZONES                
HAVE PEAK GUSTS FORECAST BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. SNOWFALL OF 1-3                 
INCHES STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM FAR NRN PA TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES             
AND SRN TUG. HIGHEST AMNTS IN NC NY.                                            
UPDATE 1...UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO DROP FFA FOR A LARGE PART OF                  
CENTRAL NY AND ALL OF NE PA. KEPT FFA GOING IN THE CATSKILLS AND                
SULLIVAN CO WHERE STEADY RAIN WAS STILL FALLING AS THERE CUD BE SOME            
MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS YET. NW WINDS WERE RAPIDLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED            
ACRS THE WRN 1/2 OF NY AND PA. A FAIRLY DEEP SFC LO WAS TRACKING                
ACRS NE PA ATTM. THIS LO WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON             
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS SPREADING ACRS THE REST OF CWA AS A                 
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS MOVS ACRS THE REST OF NE PA AND C NY. A                
MUCH COLDER SHOT OF AIR WAS INVADING FAR WRN NY ATTM AND TIME THIS              
SHARPER DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW TO ELM-SYR             
BY 17-18Z....AND UCA-BGM-IPT BY 19Z...AVP BY 20-21Z AND MSV BY                  
21-22Z. SEE UP TO AN INCH IN C NY W OF I-81 BY 00Z. WINDS WILL PICK             
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVY            
FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO FAR CURRENT SNOW FCSTS ARE GOING FOR             
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN UPSTATE NY WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NE PA. WILL              
READDRESS WIND AND SNOW POTENTIAL WITH ANOTHR UPDATE LATER THIS                 
MORNING. - NICOSIA                                                              
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...                                                          
CONCENTRATED MAINLY ON THE STORM AT HAND FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD               
AND WILL LET MUCH OF THE REST RIDE FOR NOW. EASTERN TROF IS FORECAST            
TO LIFT OUT AND BECOME NEG TILTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.                 
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES, BUT GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY            
GOOD HANDLE WITH CURRENT WX...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW             
OVER CENTRAL PA AND PRECIP SHIELD AND IS THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER               
THE NAM. ATLANTIC INFLOW BRINING BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH MODERATE              
TO HEAVY RAIN NORTHWARD THRU EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA AND               
PA.                                                                             
MANY THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING QPF,                 
WINDS AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR              
TRENDS SHOW AND MODELS AGREE THAT AFTER THIS BATCH OF RAIN GOES THRU            
EARLY THIS MORNING, WE WILL BE DRY SLOTTED FOR A WHILE BEFORE WRAP              
AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN THIS AFTN/EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE BAND            
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THRU CENTRAL PA WILL MOVE QUICKLY THRU OUR                 
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITHOUT SETTING UP IN PLACE, AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO             
LESS RAINFALL FOR EASTERN AREAS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND LESS              
OF A PROBLEM FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIER            
PRECIP MOVING THRU, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL PSBLE WITH THE THREAT              
OF PROBLEMS ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS, THUS WILL BE LETTING THE             
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE WHERE IT STANDS GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF                       
UNCERTAINTY.                                                                    
PRECIP CHANGES OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY             
AND TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. NAM SHOWS DEFORMATION SNOW DRYING UP OVER               
THE AREA WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE HEAVY HANDED, BUT NOT MUCH.                 
ATTM, WILL NOT GO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE AREA,                
WITH A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST.                                                 
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS LATER TODAY, PRESSURE GRADIENT                
TIGHTENS WITH CAA AND GFS PRESSURE RISES OF 8-9 MB. THIS WOULD BRING            
US CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. RIGHT               
NOW, OUR INCLINATION IS TO ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE RAPID CHANGE IN            
WEATHER WITH WIND, SOME SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS ON THE WAY AND               
HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.EXTENDED FORECAST (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...                                   
ANOTHER PRONOUNCED WARM-UP DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS             
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE              
NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE            
NEXT SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... SO THE BEST CHC              
OF RAIN NEXT WEEKS LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD END             
AS SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS NEW                    
ENGLAND. -MSE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (14/06Z - 15/06Z)...                                                  
HIGHLY VRBL CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WITH TERMINALS IN AND OUT              
OF SHOWERS. GENERAL TENDENCY WILL BE FOR PREDOMINANT MVFR WITH                  
SPORADIC IFR ESPLY HIER ELEV BGM. MAY EVEN SEE WINDOWS OF VFR AS DRY            
SLOT ASSOC WITH UPR JET MOVES OVHD. WIND IS THE BIG STORY AFT 18Z.              
FROPA WILL BRING QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. STRONG PRESSURE            
GRADIENT AND CAA DVLPG OVER AREA BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING            
AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS ABV 20 KTS WITH GUSTS ABV 30 KTS WELL INTO            
TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SETTLE INTO TYPICAL COLD AIR MVFR LEVELS WITH A            
BRIEF PD OF -SN AND IFR VSBYS BEHIND FROPA. -JAB                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAIN EVENT CHANGING COURSE ON US AS DRY SLOT NOW FCST TO MOVE THRU              
HEART OF HSA. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS IN FLOOD               
WATCH AREA...AND ALLEVIATE THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RISES AND MINOR            
FLOODING IN THE HEADWATERS OF SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN. GENERALLY ONE            
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP EXPECTED IN THE UPR                 
SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BASINS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOME OF THAT                
WILL GO TO SNOW. FINGER LAKES BASINS ALSO SHOULD WITHSTAND THE                  
HEAVIER RAIN FALLING UP THERE...AS THERE IS MUCH LESS SNOWMELT.                 
STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY                 
HIGHER AMOUNTS THIS MORNING TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO                 
SMALLER STREAM/CREEK PROBLEMS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH                
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FOR THOSE REASONS ONLY. -JAB                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062                 
.PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR                    
PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
755 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                              
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE             
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH FAIRLY STIFF SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EVIDENT ACROSS             
CWFA. IN ADDITION RESPECTABLE PRESSURE FALLS/SFC-850MB WAA NOTED IN             
ADVANCE OF TROUGH FROM RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA.                
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PER 00Z RUC WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTM VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG PROGGED TO            
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED             
WAA COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM VORTICITY MAXIMA AND 700MB              
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SUPPORTS FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT FROM            
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EAST INTO BAUDETTE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT BIG               
MERCURY DROP OVERNIGHT AS WAA THERMAL PROFILE PERSISTS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATEST EXAMINATION OF OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK WOULD SUGGEST           
ANY PCPN AND MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A BEMIDJI TO GRAFTON LINE           
THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GFK/BJI/FAR TAF SITES SEEING VFR CONDITIONS.         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1247 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
NW SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WERE GUSTING OVER/NEAR 20 KTS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT PROFILES...THE SC DECK WILL      
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SCATTERING OUT              
00Z TO 03Z AS WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS. MID CLOUDS WORK                  
BACK IN 06Z TO 09Z WEST TO EAST AS WINDS DECREASE AND THEN TURN SE              
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1110 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1004 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
LOW CLOUDS WERE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE              
COLD FRONT.  MOISTURE HAS CUTOFF IN THE NW FLOW...SO OTHER THAN                 
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY.  HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND POPS.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL                  
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH                 
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D                 
SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS.                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS                       
MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL                    
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC                
INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES                 
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR                     
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS                
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS                  
EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY                  
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR                   
SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH                  
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                 
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE                    
EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS                    
FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE                    
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES               
ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE                 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT                    
MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH                
PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE             
SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM            
SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z                        
MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER.                          
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S             
MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA            
WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND               
CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES               
ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST               
AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS.                          
TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND                   
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1110 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1004 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
LOW CLOUDS WERE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE              
COLD FRONT.  MOISTURE HAS CUTOFF IN THE NW FLOW...SO OTHER THAN                 
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY.  HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND POPS.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL                  
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH                 
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D                 
SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS.                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS                       
MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL                    
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC                
INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES                 
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR                     
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS                
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS                  
EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY                  
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR                   
SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH                  
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                 
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE                    
EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS                    
FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE                    
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES               
ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE                 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT                    
MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH                
PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE             
SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM            
SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z                        
MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER.                          
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S             
MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA            
WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND               
CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES               
ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST               
AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS.                          
TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND                   
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1004 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
LOW CLOUDS WERE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE              
COLD FRONT.  MOISTURE HAS CUTOFF IN THE NW FLOW...SO OTHER THAN                 
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...CONDITIONS WILL                
REMAIN DRY.  HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND POPS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL                  
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH                 
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D                 
SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS.                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS                       
MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL                    
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC                
INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES                 
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR                     
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS                
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS                  
EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY                  
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR                   
SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH                  
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                 
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE                    
EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS                    
FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE                    
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES               
ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE                 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT                    
MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH                
PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE             
SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM            
SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z                        
MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER.                          
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S             
MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA            
WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND               
CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES               
ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST               
AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS.                          
TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND                   
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SNOW EAST OF ALL THE TAFS                
EXCEPT CMH AND LCK AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THOSE TAFS BY 730AM.                   
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR AND BECOME VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC WIND               
WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING OFF               
SOME THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS               
EVENING AND TONIGHT OVERCAST CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BROKEN. TONIGHT               
WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE.               
HAYDU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 531 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR.                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL                  
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH                 
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D                 
SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS.                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS                       
MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL                    
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC                
INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES                 
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR                     
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS                
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS                  
EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY                  
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR                   
SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH                  
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                 
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE                    
EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS                    
FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE                    
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES               
ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE                 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT                    
MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH                
PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE             
SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM            
SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z                        
MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER.                          
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S             
MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA            
WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND               
CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES               
ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST               
AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS.                          
TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND                   
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
531 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL                  
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH                 
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D                 
SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE                     
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS.                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS                       
MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL                    
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC                
INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING                  
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE                  
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES                 
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR                     
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS                
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS                  
EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY                  
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR                   
SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH                  
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN                 
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE                    
EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG                   
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS                    
FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE                    
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES               
ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE                 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT                    
MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH                
PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE             
SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM            
SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z                        
MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER.                          
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S             
MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA            
WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND               
CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES               
ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST               
AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS.                          
TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND                   
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.                
FRANKS                                                                          
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA.            
COLD FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN ILN AND CMH AND MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE                
EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS                   
GENERATING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT.               
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW                
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL NOT BE AS              
LOW AS PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS HAVE                   
CONTINUED A WEAKENING TREND OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER INDIANA. THE              
THREE HOURS TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW             
MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES                
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND END BY 18Z IN THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES.                   
WHILE CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THEY WILL                   
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD REACHING VFR BY MID                
AFTERNOON. KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER TO TONIGHT THEN SUGGESTED BY                   
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER AND NORTH OF THE             
AREA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.                                                   
HAYDU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1105 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...AFTER A CAREFUL EXAMINATION THE AFTERNOON FORECAST                    
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THINKING WILL BE FOR                 
SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.                      
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP AS DRIER              
AIR MIXES DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. OBSERVATIONS OVER WEST TEXAS                 
CONFIRM THIS IS HAPPENING. THE RUC MODEL HAS THE BEST                           
HANDLE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING.                     
FORECAST WILL USE A BLEND OF RUC AND GFS TO ARRIVE AT HUMIDITIES                
RANGING 11 TO 18 PERCENT FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT QUESTION IS                    
WHETHER CIRRUS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                
AT THIS TIME...THINKING THAT THE VERY SHARP MORNING INVERSION                   
SHOULD ALLOW EVERYONE TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 60S...AND                     
SATELLITE INDICATES A PATCHY NATURE TO THE CIRRUS.                              
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALONE...MEANING THOSE              
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS              
PLACES THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA CITY NORTHWARD IN               
A BORDERLINE RED FLAG SITUATION...GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN                
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE WIND FORECAST STILL APPEARS WELL ON                        
TRACK...WITH MUCH GUSTIER CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL NOT              
EXPAND THE RED FLAG EASTWARD AT THIS TIME...BUT A FIRE DANGER                   
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER                    
FARTHER EAST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 344 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...FIRE WEATHER AGAIN MAIN CONCERN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS                
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA TODAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS                
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY                    
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED OVER THE NWRN THIRD OF THE               
FA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL               
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WILL GO WITH RED FLAG WRNG FOR ABOUT                
THE WRN ONE HALF OF THE FA TODAY. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT                 
OVERNIGHT SO WINDS WILL STAY UP. WARMER TEMPS...CONTINUED STRONG                
SOUTHERLY WIND WARRANT KEEPING FIRE WX WATCH UP FOR SUNDAY. COLD                
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH                   
ADVANCES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE                     
SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER STRONG ENOUGH FORCING COULD                  
STILL WRING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS                
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS/TEMP PROGS SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE               
CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE               
LIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA                 
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                  
OVER THE AREA FLATTENS WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND SOUTHERLY                 
LOW LVL FLOW RETURNING. ANOTHER PAC FRONT PROGGED IN LATE IN THE                
WEEK BUT WILL NOT ADD PRECIP CHANCES ATTM WITH MOISTURE RETURN                  
QUESTIONABLE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  42  69  44 /   0   0   0  10                              
HOBART OK         68  41  72  40 /   0   0   0  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  45  73  45 /   0   0   0  10                              
GAGE OK           69  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     65  44  69  43 /   0   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK         67  47  67  51 /   0   0  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING              
     FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-               
     OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-                   
     OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-                   
     OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-                   
     OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-                   
     OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                   
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-            
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ014-OKZ015-                   
     OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ027-                   
     OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ044-                   
     OKZ045.                                                                    
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING              
     FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.               
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE/02                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
935 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CWA THE                
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC LOW EXITS THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE            
MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND W.  WHILE INLAND STATIONS ARE STARTING TO              
FINALLY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WINDS DIMINISHING...COASTAL STATIONS ARE             
STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 KT AT TIMES.  THIS WILL LIKELY                    
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST RUC SHOWS A SURGE OF SFC              
WIND OVER THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.  MOSTLY CLEAR WILL DO FINE               
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST INLAND AREAS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING BY DAWN.  A             
NICE WIND CHILL IN THE MORNING WITH A MODERATE BREEZE IN PLACE.                 
NO UPDATE TO THE ZONES AS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.             
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...WINDS STILL BLOWING 30 TO 40 MPH OUT OVER THE LAKE.               
WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT SHOWING A DECREASE IN            
SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...IMPRESSIVE GALE CONTINUES BOTH OVER THE NEARSHORE AND                 
OFFSHORE WATERS.  WITH THE RUC SHOWING SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW      
HOURS...SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EVEN MORE.  WILL THEREFORE UP SEAS            
JUST A BIT IN THE UPDATE.  SCA FOR THE HARBOR LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT.             
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX ENOUGH THAT              
THE 5AM EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE NEARSHORE GALE STILL LOOKS                      
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. ONLY ISSUE IS THE WIND AND                
WIND SHEAR.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS AT               
THE SURFACE DECREASE WHILE SPEEDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP KEEP IN THE            
35-40 KT RANGE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045.                               
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-354-374.                                       
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ330.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
408 PM PST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS                    
EVENING...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE               
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. BY LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL              
MOVE IN RESULTING IN A RETURN TO WET WEATHER.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE                  
FOCUS FOR TONIGHTS WEATHER. AS OF 2 PM THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM                 
THE NORTHERN TIP OF IDAHO...TO THE SPOKANE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST                   
TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES. THIS POSITIONING WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT               
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS AND THUS THESE MODELS                 
WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC                       
ASCENT/FRONTAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS AHEAD             
OF THIS FRONT THROUGH 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND THE             
SE CORNER OF WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF            
THE FRONT AS ATTESTED TO BY THE NEAR FREEZING READING AT MULLAN                 
PASS (6150 FT) SO HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED DESPITE THE                     
HEAVY/MODERATE QPF VALUES. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SE OF THE CWA                   
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA CARE OF NW               
WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. POST FRONTAL NW WINDS THROUGH THIS               
LAYER ARE USUALLY A PRECURSOR TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER                 
THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND BLUE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE                  
CASE HERE SINCE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE                  
LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL AS THE                  
COLD AIR ALOFT (500-300 MB LAYER) ARE LAGGING TOO FAR WEST TO                   
BOLSTER THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.                                                  
FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS OVER THE CWA...BRINGING                
IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE THE                
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS COOLING. LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND                      
SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD                
AND MOST WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS PER                      
WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE LATE IN THE DAY                
AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS INTO MONTANA. FX                                        
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW                      
CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN SOME RATHER COLD AIR. THE                 
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS FROM                 
FORMING. IN FACT SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY EVENING TO              
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT                  
THIS SHOULD BE AFTER TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S MOST                       
LOCATIONS. THICKER MID CLOUD DECK MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHICH WILL                 
HELP KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING.                                        
THIS COOLING IS IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TYPE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC                   
WEATHER SYSTEM. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE                
QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. AS SUCH MOST LOCATIONS                
WILL RECEIVE SNOW AT LEAST INITIALLY.                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SYSTEM OUT NEAR 160W WITH A GOOD                 
MOISTURE TAP INTO THE TROPICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME IS SIMILAR              
TO TODAY'S SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCHES EXPECTED INTO                
OUR AREA. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY BACK AT THE DATELINE IS                 
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND SPIN UP A SECONDARY LOW                
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF AK BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION              
WILL START UP MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CASCADES. GOOD COLD AIR                 
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW IN THIS                 
AREA. SOUTHEASTLY UPSLOPE FLOW ISN'T ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON THE                
NAM AND GFS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WHICH IS A              
BIT FARTHER NORTH AND OFFSHORE THAN PAST SYSTEMS. THIS ACTUALLY                 
GIVES A BETTER SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY                
SNOW IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS.                                          
TO THE EAST...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY EVENING OVER THE                      
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LATE MONDAY              
NIGHT FOR SPOKANE AREA AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE PANHANDLE ON                     
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                  
PUSHES THE WARM AIR INTO THE EASTERN BASIN AND PALOUSE CHANGING                 
SNOW TO RAIN. COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IS MUCH                 
DEEPER AND WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY                
OF TUESDAY.                                                                     
IF ALL OF THIS PANS OUT AS PLANNED...WILL PROBABLY BE HOISTING                  
WATCHES FOR MANY ZONES TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL ADD DETAILS TO THE                
HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  RJ                         
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL               
MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.              
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY                  
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE                 
RULED IN ANY PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. CC                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH               
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD                  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN/SNOW...MVFR CEILINGS             
AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS TO THE REGION THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT                
HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY VFR              
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. CC                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        29  35  24  33  29  39 /  30  10   0  20  80  80                 
COEUR D'ALENE  30  35  24  34  28  39 /  50  10   0  20  80  80                 
PULLMAN        31  36  24  34  30  43 /  70  20  10  20  90  80                 
LEWISTON       34  41  30  37  33  44 /  70  20  20  10  50  70                 
COLVILLE       29  35  23  32  26  34 /  40  20   0  30  80  80                 
SANDPOINT      30  35  26  32  27  34 /  70  60   0  20  80  80                 
KELLOGG        32  35  27  32  29  39 /  90  70  30  20  80  80                 
MOSES LAKE     27  38  27  32  29  38 /  10   0   0  50  70  40                 
WENATCHEE      28  38  26  31  26  33 /  10  10   0  60  90  50                 
OMAK           25  34  23  31  27  33 /  10  10  10  50  80  50                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
949 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON                                                        
THE 12Z RUC AND NAM MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE                  
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER AT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING               
AND AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP IS              
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...I HAVE UPDATED THE                  
FORECAST AND WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IN                     
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ENDED UP BEING               
COLDER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WINDS NOT KICKING IN                   
UNTIL LATERTHIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR. AS A             
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RECOVER...THEREFORE...           
I HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
BOYNE                                                                           
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 215 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                         
FORECAST FOCUS IS FIRST ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...THEN                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.                               
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM EASTERN KS...               
UP ACROSS WESTERN IA AND MN...AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LINGERING               
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT            
LAKES WAS RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER NORTHERN WI             
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOME LOW CLOUDS ALSO LINGERED FROM THE MN              
ARROWHEAD DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WI. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING               
INTO NORTHERN MN.                                                               
00Z 14JAN06 MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCES...               
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM DUE IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK                
WEEK. NAM MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. NAM HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE                   
UKMET...DGEX AND PREVIOUS CANADIAN MODELS...BUT ENSEMBLES AND THE               
LATEST CANADIAN GO MORE WITH THE GFS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE                 
GFS...AS THIS WAS THE CLOSEST TO CONTINUITY.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...           
FELT IT BEST TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE IN MAKING ANY CHANGES.                     
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS            
TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF                
THE DAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ALSO BRUSHING THE AREA.  PARTLY SUNNY            
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL BE UTILIZED. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH             
WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TODAY AND               
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR IN THE              
WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT THAT LOOKS TO               
STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD BY JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH HIGHS                 
IN THE 30S TODAY...AND 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR SUNDAY.                            
BUT THE ATTENTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY             
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SPLIT FLOW            
PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER.            
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR DAYS ON HOW THIS PATTERN WILL                   
EVOLVE...AND TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT. NAM MOVES THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY             
THROUGH FASTER THAN GFS...AND BOTH HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER                 
MODELS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT                  
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HAVE                  
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL              
PROBABLY HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE...AT LEAST IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA.  THE OTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHAT TYPE THE                        
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THE AREA           
COULD BE EITHER BE IN OR OUT OF THE WARM AIR.  FOR NOW FEEL GOING               
TOWARD THE WARM END OF THE SOLUTIONS IS THE BEST...WHICH GOES ALONG             
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL. RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...             
AND A MIXTURE ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN BY                 
MONDAY NIGHT...SO WENT WITH SNOW.  AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED               
AND TRACK...A MIX MAY BE NEEDED HERE AS WELL.                                   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY...GONE BY              
WEDNESDAY.  DID SLOW THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE PREVIOUS              
FORECAST...OWING TO THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.                                    
THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE THURSDAY           
AND FRIDAY.  NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MW                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
229 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND                 
MONDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT                   
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. FLOW IS A LITTLE FLATTER THAN YESTERDAY. SYSTEM            
IN QUESTION HAD BARELY MADE IT ON THE COAST BY 00Z. ANOTHER PLAYER              
IN THIS IS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS             
SYSTEM. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR TODAY.                               
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOK REASONABLY INITIALIZED. AT MID LEVEL...              
THROUGH 06Z...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WOULD SAY THAT THE               
UKMET AND RUC ARE DOING THE BEST. UKMET DID WELL ON THE HEIGHT FIELD.           
BASED ON SATELLITE...RUC LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON OUR COMPLEX           
UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. CANADIAN                
ALSO DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD EITHER. BASED ON INITIAL ANALYSIS...TRENDS           
THROUGH 06Z...COLLABORATION...WILL USE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...                
RUC...UKMET...GFS...AND CANADIAN.                                               
TODAY...HAVE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT A              
LOT OF CIRRUS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT              
OF SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. ALSO LOOK TO HAVE SOME                    
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE ABOVE...WILL GO                 
NEAR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY. HAVE NOT CHECKED RECORDS SINCE            
HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATING ON INCOMING STORM. BUT WILL CHECK RECORDS               
AND INSERT WORDING WHERE NEEDED.                                                
TONIGHT/MONDAY...AFTER THREE STRAIGHT RUNS OF IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND           
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY...               
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. WHAT MAY BE GOING ON IS THE MODELS ARE HOLDING              
BACKING MORE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ALL                
THE MODELS DEPICT THAT. GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND RUC HOLD ONTO              
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH AND IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS WHAT THE                
PREVIOUS THREE RUNS HAD INDICATED...ESPECIALLY THE RUC AND GFS. THE             
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THEIR QPF.               
IF BELIEVE THE LATEST NAM...WE WILL RECEIVE NO PRECIPITATION.                   
AFTER EXTENSIVE PONDERING AND COLLABORATION...HAVE DECIDED TO                   
CONTINUE THE WATCH. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...               
DID TREND DOWN ON AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS WILL NOW BE 2 TO 4              
INCHES. HOWEVER...THE PLACE TO WATCH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO                  
STATELINE. INSTABILITY IS BEST THERE AND ALSO THE MAIN LIFT                     
CORRESPONDS CLOSELY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THE ONE DEFINITE WITH               
THIS STORM AND THE KEY FACTOR IN KEEPING THE WATCH UP IS THE WIND               
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. IF AREA DOES END UP                
GETTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW...A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED.            
MORE THAN LIKELY...THIS SCENARIO WILL EVOLVE INTO A SNOW AND BLOWING            
SNOW ADVISORY ADVISORY. AS WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID NOT WANT TO                 
FLIP FLOP CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS STORM WILL NOT GET GOING            
TIL WELL INTO THE SECOND PERIOD AND INTO THE THIRD PERIOD.                      
CONSIDERING WHETHER IT SNOWS OR NOT...TEMPERATURES COULD BUST BIG               
TIME. HOWERVER...WILL STILL CLOSE TO GUIDANCE/CURRENT FORECAST AND              
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.                                                           
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE BY              
THIS PERIOD. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR NOW.                                   
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES                    
ACROSS DURING THE DAY. AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER WILL AFFECT THE HIGH                
TEMPERATURES. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND. CONSIDERING                
HOW COLD THE START TO THE DAY WILL BE. WILL STICK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY              
BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                                 
AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-               
     KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.                                        
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081.                                                  
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON            
     FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
455 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE -SN TRENDS TODAY AND SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS                
FROM LATE MON THROUGH TUE.                                                      
WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE              
ERN TROF...CNTRL RDG AND WRN TROF PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS RESULTING              
IN NW MID/UPPER LVL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW            
WAS INCREASING ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES BTWN A RDG FROM             
NRN ONTARIO INTO LWR MI AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE NRN HIGH               
PLAINS. 285K-295K LYR ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED BROAD AREAS OF                  
CLOUDS OVER THE WRN LAKES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. RADAR                
INDICATED RETURNS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GREATER REFLECTIVITIES             
IN ISOLD CONVECTIVE LIKE ELEMENTS TO 28 DBZ OVER THE W HLF OF THE               
CWA. SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE SFC...BUT PCPN                     
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWED BY DRY AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LYR...PER              
02Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG.                                                           
TODAY...NAM/GFS AND RUC ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF (AMOUNTS TO              
AROUND 0.10 INCH) AS THE BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO             
THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS TRENDS...MDLS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY               
EFFECTS OF CONTINUED LOW LVL ESE FLOW OF DRY AIR FROM THE CNTRL                 
LAKES RDG. SO...KEPT MENTION OF ONLY OCNL -SN/FLURRIES OVER THE W               
2/3 OF THE CWA WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.                    
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...MDLS SUGGEST THAT WEAK WAA ISENTROPIC LIFT             
CONTINUES AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS BY THIS EVENING. SINCE MIN                 
TEMPS WITHIN REMAINING LOW LVL MOIST LYR FCST ONLY TO AROUND -7C                
(PER NAM)...SOME PATCHY -FZDZ MAY DEVELOP...ESEPCIALLY IN LOCATIONS             
FAVORED BY UPSLOPE SE FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...-FZDZ IS NOT EXPECTED                 
FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.                                          
LATER MON INTO TUE...WHILE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS              
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME DIFFERENCES               
REMAIN. A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE 00Z/15 NAM 12Z/14 ECWMF FAVORED BY             
HPC WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/15 UKMET. MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS              
THAT AN INVERTED TROF WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES WITH DECENT              
ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD THE AREAS             
WITH 3-4 G/KG AVBL. SO...EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z/15 GFS MAY BE TOO                  
STRONG AND WRAPPED UP WITH THE SFC LOW INTO LWR MI BY                           
TUE...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER               
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE (BY              
00Z/WED)...GREATEST EAST. PRELIM SNOW FCST WAS BASED ON A                       
GFS/NAM/GFSENSEMBLE QPF BLEND AND A SNOW WATER RATIO AROUND 12/1.               
PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS THIS SEASON WITH A SFC SE FLOW                
HAVE RESULTED IN DECENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW.                   
HOWEVER...VEERING 950 MB FLOW FROM AROUND 140-160 MON NIGHT WOULD               
PROVIDE ONLY A MARGINAL FETCH. SO...DID NOT BOOST FCST SNOWFALL                 
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
300 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU TUE/...PRES RISES ARE BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN            
OF LATE AND IN TURN WE HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN WINDS THE PAST FEW               
HOURS...WITH SEVERAL SITES NOW 10 KT OR LESS INLAND. TREND WILL BE              
FOR A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS THRU THE DAY...AND BELIEVE IT OR                
NOT...WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE                 
COAST THIS AFTN AS FLOW FINALLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN WAKE OF                 
DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AS MID AND UPPER LOW             
OFF DELMARVA LIFTS OUT FURTHER TO THE NE TODAY WE DO SEE AN INCREASE            
IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS WILL                
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTN              
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING.                       
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS SFC HIGH OVER               
THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC MON AND TUE. CONTINUED                    
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMING SWLY.               
WITH THIS FLOW WE DO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT MAINLY             
ONLY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.                   
NOT YET SURE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DURING MID                 
WEEK...SO THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO                 
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER TUE. AT THIS TIME I WILL PROBABLY                 
CARRY ONLY 14 PERCENT POPS OR LESS...BUT PENDING SURROUNDING WFO                
ANALYSIS I COULD BE PERSUADED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LATE.                    
ALTHOUGH TEMPS INLAND WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND PERHAPS              
EVEN 70 ON TUE...COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WITH             
ONSHORE FETCH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THRU SAT/...THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT             
WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MID AND LATE                  
WEEK...WITH NEXT COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU LATE TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH              
WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN WITH PREVIOUS                    
SYSTEMS...INSTABILITY IS LACKING. THUS NO TSTMS WITH THIS FCST                  
PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY.                                                          
COOLER WX IN WAKE OF FRONT WED INTO THU...BUT AIR MASS OF PACIFIC               
ORIGIN NOTHING TOO EXTREMELY COLD /PERHAPS SOME 20S WELL INLAND FOR             
THE COLDEST WED NIGHT/.                                                         
ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...AS               
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ATLC. THIS ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB              
FRI AND SAT. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF POPS THRU SAT.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS HOW LONG THE GALE WARNINGS            
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. BOTH GFS AND RUC MODELS ARE                   
BRINGING THE WINDS DOWN TO ONLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY 12Z. HOWEVER            
MANY MARINE SITES ARE STILL INDICATING STRONG SUSTAINED AND GUSTY               
WINDS...WITH A DECREASING TREND. BUOY 8 HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT                  
GUSTING TO 31 KT AND THE R2 TOWER HAS DROPPED TO 31 KT GUSTING TO 35            
KT. AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY REMOVE THE GALES IN THE NEARSHORE GA            
WATERS WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE...WHILE KEEPING THE GALES GOING IN              
THE SC WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS UNTIL 15Z TO ALLOW THE MORNING                
SHIFT TO EVALUATE. DESPITE THE CUTOFF OF COLD ADVECTION BY                      
MORNING...A COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER              
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL APPEARS FAIRLY                 
TIGHT OVER THE SC MARINE ZONES.                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW BENIGN CONDITIONS             
TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST              
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY IN THE            
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD                
FRONT. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WEDNESDAY               
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                                     
GFS REPEATS THIS PATTERN BY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM TOWARD THE              
EAST NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS SOLUTION STAYS CONSISTENT...EXPECT A                 
GENERAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE                           
MORNING...ALONG WITH A DECREASING THREAT OF LLWS. VFR CONDITIONS                
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF SITES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE                    
MOULTRIE THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL                  
CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z TODAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 THROUGH 17Z.                   
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-374 THROUGH 15Z.                               
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ330-354 THROUGH 15Z.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/WMS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY.  FLOW                       
ALOFT(400MB) FROM RUC/SATELLITE OVERLAY SHOWING RATHER SPLIT FLOW               
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES.  STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS           
SOUTHERN CA. WITH OTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WY/CO REGION.  THIS             
WAVE APPEARS TO BE THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE               
DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  12Z NAM AND GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON                  
DRAGGING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA MONDAY.  TRACK OF H85 LOW             
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN...SO THIS IS WHERE I LAYED HIGHEST POPS.                
SOUTH OF THE H85 LOW TRACK/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME               
LIGHT QPF AS WELL.  BUT CHANCE POPS LOOKED BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN               
CWA-SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.  Q/G FORCING NOT THAT STRONG                
WITH ALONG/EAST OF THE TROUGH...AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT RUNNING                
NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KMOX-KMIC-KRCX LINE MONDAY.  THICKNESS                
CONCERNS INDICATE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST EARLY                     
MONDAY...BEFORE READINGS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTHEAST.                
THEN LOOKS LIKE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW.               
BEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LIES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...MAINLY NORTH             
OF A LINE FROM NEAR KMOX-KSTC-KCBG-KRPD.  HERE COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES             
ACCUMULATION.  LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF AREA.                                    
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT GFS HANGS ONTO TROUGH A                 
LITTLE LONGER THAN 12Z NAM.  WILL LEAVE POPS IN WESTERN WI AND                  
MENTION FLURRIES IN MN PORTION TUESDAY.  WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER            
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS RATHER STRONG               
CAA PATTERN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL                   
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 20S WITH THICKER CLOUDS/NORTHWEST WINDS AND                
SNOW FLURRIES.                                                                  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE             
RIDGE PASSES AND NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                  
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                              
STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH            
THURSDAY...WITH A FAST ZONAL AIRFLOW CONTINUING ALOFT OVER THE AREA.            
WL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.               
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE.                                         
AFTERWARDS...MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOPS A SPLIT FLOW                 
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER ENERGY STAYING WELL NORTH AND             
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR MID JANUARY.                      
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS FORESEEN IN THE                
NEAR FUTURE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/JVM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
230 PM MST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY...                     
INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ESE ACROSS NE MT TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THRU ENTIRE CWA. STRONG                  
MIXING WITH IT HAS RAISED TEMPS TO LOWER 40S ALONG AND JUST BEHIND              
THE FRONT IN OUR EAST...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING IN OUR WEST...TO            
THE UPPER 20S.                                                                  
SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOW A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE                      
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SLOWING DOWN               
QUITE A BIT. RAIN TURNING TO SNOW IN OUR WEST THIS MORNING ALSO                 
SLOWING DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD AND BREAKING UP...HOWEVER THIS             
DID PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN PHILLIPS COUNTY. RUC AND ETA                  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR EAST                     
TONIGHT...BUT WITH JUST MODERATE UPPER DYNAMICS. MORE CONVINCING FOR            
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINTER WEATHER IS THE GFS WHICH HAD A BETTER                  
HANDLE ON THE PHILLIPS COUNTY MOISTURE...LIFT...AND VORTICITY. THIS             
DEVELOPS PRETTY MUCH AT LEAST .10 QPF OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IT HAS             
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TOO...AND STRONGER LIFT IN OUR EAST AS                
WELL. PREFER THIS MODEL FOR AMOUNTS...BUT ETA AGREES WITH THE HIGH              
POPS IN OUR EAST. SLOWING OF SYSTEM INCREASES CONCERN FOR AMOUNTS               
THAT WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES SNOWFALL IN OUR EAST. AMOUNTS                      
BORDERLINE...BUT IT WILL BE WINDY...CAUSING BLOWING AND                         
DRIFTING...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. FAIRLY TIGHT                
SURFACE GRADIENTS TONIGHT AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION IN LOWER                  
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN GOOD LAPSE RATES AND MIXING TO SURFACE. UP TO             
40 KT WIND AT 850 MB.                                                           
PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE WEST BY EARLY EVENING THOUGH...NOT TIL                 
MONDAY MORN IN OUR EXTREME EAST. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND CURRENT                
TEMPS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...AND PROSPECT OF SNOWCOVER...WILL GO COLDER            
THAN ALL MOS TONIGHT.                                                           
THICKNESSES DROP TO 520S DM TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES CLEARING...BUT            
850 MB TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL ALSO GO A LITTLE BELOW               
MOS. SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE PAST 4 WEEKS MONDAY            
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...SNOWCOVER...AND THE COLDER               
AIRMASS REMAINING. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CAUSING THICKNESSES AND 850             
MB TEMPS TO RISE TUESDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION HIGH             
CLOUDS THOUGH AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SO INVERSION PRONE MILK             
AND MISSOURI VALLEYS WON'T WARM ANY OVER MONDAY...THE 41 ON MET AT              
GLASGOW APPEARING MUCH TOO HIGH AND PREFER TO GO CLOSER TO THE                  
COLDER MAV. SIMONSEN                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                    
POPS WERE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS             
TO THE AREA. THIS MAINLY TO HELP WITH COORDINATION AMONGST                      
SURROUNDING OFFICES. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.  TFJ             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE ARCTIC CANADA AND                  
RUSSIA.  ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN                
RECENT WEEKS NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH AIRMASSES              
MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.                                      
TUES NIGHT & WEDNESDAY...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA THAT              
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA             
WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL SEND FIRST A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA                   
TUESDAY EVENING....WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA             
WEDNESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW                  
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THIS FAR OUT THAT SEEMS TO                  
WARRANT ANY POPS.  TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                     
WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.  RAISED                 
TEMPERATURES SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN               
THE SOUTH WHERE ANY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF                
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                          
WED NIGHT & THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF                 
EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE              
WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH            
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.  IT ONLY LOOKS TO             
BE A VERY GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR...AND LACK OF SNOWCOVER TO                
ALSO HAVE A MODIFYING AFFECT ON THE AIRMASS.  CERTAINLY COULD BE A              
FEW FLURRIES AROUND IN THE COLDER AIR...BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF ANY               
POPS SEVERAL DAYS OUT.                                                          
THURS NIGHT & FRIDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH                 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO GO INTO                
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  THE UPPER FLOW                
SHOULD START TO BACK AND TURN MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY AS MORE JET                  
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON            
THE MILD SIDE OF AVERAGE.                                                       
NEXT WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT GREAT THIS MORNING.  LATEST              
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER BRINGS A CUT OFF LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST              
SATURDAY AND TAKES MOST IT/S ENERGY INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END             
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  GFS ENSEMBLES START TO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD               
UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FOR              
NOW KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SEEMS TO BE               
THE BEST WAY TO GO UNTIL THERE ARE CLEAR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE.             
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW BY EARLY THE                  
FOLLOWING WEEK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC...WHICH COULD               
EVENTUALLY PULL SOME COLDER ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO EASTERN MONTANA.               
OTHERS STILL HAVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET...SO               
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. CB                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES FOR A                    
MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW/FOG AND LOW                
CEILINGS. MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE                 
WESTERN TAFS (KGGW AND KOLF) LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD              
WORK INTO KSDY AND KGDV SITES BY MONDAY MORNING. WEST SIDE OF TWEB              
ROUTE 330 SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TFJ                             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...OUR STREAK OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS AT GLASGOW NOW STANDS AT               
25.  SINCE 12/21/05 THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 31.1 DEGREES IS 19.1             
DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE.  IT IS THE WARMEST PERIOD (12/21             
THROUGH 1/14) SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893.                                      
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY ARE ALSO THE WARMEST ON RECORD...AND             
A FAR CRY FROM JANUARY OF 2005 WHICH GOT OFF TO ONE OF THE COLDEST              
STARTS IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.  IT IS QUITE REMARKABLE THAT MONTH TO              
DATE THIS JANUARY IS 40.7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST YEAR!                        
THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD IN GLASGOW OCCURRED IN 1992...WITH AN             
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 26.6 DEGREES.  THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR            
THIS JANUARY STANDS AT 30.4 DEGREES...WHICH IS 20.2 DEGREES ABOVE               
THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND 3.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE JANUARY MONTHLY                 
RECORD. CB                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 018>020 AND 023>027 AND 062 FROM 5            
PM TONIGHT UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY.                                                   
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE UNTIL 11 PM.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
1010 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING                  
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ESE THRU THE AREA WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF             
PRECIP IN OUR WEST. NE MT IN A MOIST SW ALOFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS FOR                
THIS AFTERNOON VERIFY THIS IDEA IN SHOWING INTENSIFICATION. RUC                 
EVEN CLOSES OFF A SMALL 500 MB LOW OVER OUR EAST. GFS DEVELOPS                  
INCREASINGLY STRONG LIFT OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH QPF UP TO            
.36 IN OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL REQUIRE MAJOR UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS                
TODAY AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MENTION.                                        
THE VERY MILD AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TO BE REPLACED BY COLDER AIR                
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO OUR WEST THIS             
MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S JUST WEST AND NW OF OUR CWA.              
HIGHS IN OUR WEST TO OCCUR EARLY. MEANWHILE SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR               
EAST ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH...BUT SHOULD FALL DURING THE               
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW. EXPECT SHALLOW INVERSIONS TO               
MOSTLY BE MIXED OUT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES...SO WILL REMOVE                 
FREEZING RAIN MENTION.                                                          
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS                 
FORECASTING UP TO 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...LAPSE RATES LOOKING GOOD              
TO MIX MOST OF THIS TO SURFACE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBILITY OF             
AN ADVISORY IN OUR EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS WHEN TEMPS GET COLD               
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TO REACH CRITERIA. SIMONSEN                        
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY                  
THRU TUESDAY......A BRUSH WITH WINTER...YOU REMEMBER WINTER...                  
UPPER TROF NOW MOVING THRU WESTERN PART WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND               
CALIFORNIA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RATHER DECENT                  
MOISTURE HEADED OUR WAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE            
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY WITH                
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT LOOMS             
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS FRONT             
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE              
BULK OF THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON TIME                  
FRAME. MODELS ALL INDICATING THAT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL              
BE HAD TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS                          
MORNING...THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE            
CWA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE COMING IN AND FRONTAL DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH             
AT LEAST A MODICUM OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE RAISED THE POPS                      
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE. WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT CURRENTLY            
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING            
BECOMING SNOW IN THE NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. NOT              
THINKING ANY FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE THAT EXTENSIVE...SO             
FOR NOW WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY. SNOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT                 
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO...ALTHO A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER             
ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH AND THE LITTLE ROCKIES COULD GET CLOSE TO               
TWO INCHES. WIND WILL GET RATHER EXCITED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY SO              
WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM. FRONT CLEARS THE            
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING MAKING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SIMPLY              
SNOW. HOWEVER FRONTAL LIFT PASSES AND UPPER SUPPORT WANES BETWEEN               
THE WEAK DEPARTING ENERGY OF TODAY AND THE MAIN UPPER TROF DUE TO               
PASS MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL AFTER THE DEEP                
MOISTURE HAS DEPARTED EAST. THUS WILL MERELY HAVE SOME SMALL POPS               
ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY MORNING THEN DRY THINGS OUT.               
BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY.               
WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY RETURNS FOR TUESDAY MAKING THE COLD SNAP             
OF MONDAY AT STILL 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER WEAK AND SHORT              
LIVED...ALTHO LACK OF MIXING FOR MOST TUESDAY WILL INHIBIT A BIG                
WARMUP FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.                            
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                    
THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE ARCTIC CANADA AND                  
RUSSIA.  ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN                
RECENT WEEKS NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT             
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH AIRMASSES              
MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.                                      
TUES NIGHT & WEDNESDAY...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA THAT              
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA             
WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL SEND FIRST A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA                   
TUESDAY EVENING....WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA             
WEDNESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW                  
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THIS FAR OUT THAT SEEMS TO                  
WARRANT ANY POPS.  TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                     
WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.  RAISED                 
TEMPERATURES SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN               
THE SOUTH WHERE ANY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF                
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                          
WED NIGHT & THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF                 
EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE              
WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH            
COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.  IT ONLY LOOKS TO             
BE A VERY GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR...AND LACK OF SNOWCOVER TO                
ALSO HAVE A MODIFYING AFFECT ON THE AIRMASS.  CERTAINLY COULD BE A              
FEW FLURRIES AROUND IN THE COLDER AIR...BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF ANY               
POPS SEVERAL DAYS OUT.                                                          
THURS NIGHT & FRIDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH                 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO GO INTO                
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  THE UPPER FLOW                
SHOULD START TO BACK AND TURN MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY AS MORE JET                  
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON            
THE MILD SIDE OF AVERAGE.                                                       
NEXT WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT GREAT THIS MORNING.  LATEST              
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER BRINGS A CUT OFF LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST              
SATURDAY AND TAKES MOST IT/S ENERGY INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END             
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE               
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  GFS ENSEMBLES START TO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD               
UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FOR              
NOW KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SEEMS TO BE               
THE BEST WAY TO GO UNTIL THERE ARE CLEAR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE.             
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW BY EARLY THE                  
FOLLOWING WEEK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC...WHICH COULD               
EVENTUALLY PULL SOME COLDER ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO EASTERN MONTANA.               
OTHERS STILL HAVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET...SO               
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. CB                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS             
MORNING WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY.  THE EASTERN                     
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY               
SNOW THIS MORNING IS AT KGGW...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS                 
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL.  AREAS OF RAIN               
AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF                  
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE 6-9K             
FT AGL RANGE.  CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN ANY AREAS OF SNOW.              
THE WIND WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE              
AFTERNOON...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40              
KTS.  THE WIND WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT            
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. CB                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...OUR STREAK OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS AT GLASGOW NOW STANDS AT               
25.  SINCE 12/21/05 THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 31.1 DEGREES IS 19.1             
DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE.  IT IS THE WARMEST PERIOD (12/21             
THROUGH 1/14) SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893.                                      
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY ARE ALSO THE WARMEST ON RECORD...AND             
A FAR CRY FROM JANUARY OF 2005 WHICH GOT OFF TO ONE OF THE COLDEST              
STARTS IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.  IT IS QUITE REMARKABLE THAT MONTH TO              
DATE THIS JANUARY IS 40.7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST YEAR!                        
THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD IN GLASGOW OCCURRED IN 1992...WITH AN             
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 26.6 DEGREES.  THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR            
THIS JANUARY STANDS AT 30.4 DEGREES...WHICH IS 20.2 DEGREES ABOVE               
THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND 3.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE JANUARY MONTHLY                 
RECORD. CB                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT              
PECK LAKE 10 AM TO 9 PM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1031 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS                          
MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO RAISE                        
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...WITH CURRENT READINGS RUNNING AHEAD                
OF SCHEDULE. NEW MOS OUTPUT CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS                     
WELL...AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER                    
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT               
TODAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST IS NOW FOR A RANGE OF LOWER 70S EAST TO                
UPPER 70S WEST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOUTHWEST                            
OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS APPROACH 80 DEGREES DEPENDING ON                   
CLOUD COVER. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKEST IN SOUTH               
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST                
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON                        
OBSERVATIONS AND USING RUC OUTPUT. THE WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER                   
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HUMIDITIES 10 TO 15 PERCENT THIS                       
AFTERNOON FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA..WITH VALUES 15 TO                
25 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE A WEAK INFLUX OF GULF              
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH                 
THICK CI HAS RESULTED IN VERY MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED              
S TO SW LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH               
PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. STILL MAXES                
WELL ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED. WITH 40 TO 50 KT 925MB AND 850 MB                   
WINDS SHOWING UP ON AREA PROFILERS THIS MORNING AND FAIRLY TIGHT                
SFC GRADIENT EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP BY MID MORNING. WITH STG                   
WINDS EXPECTED...WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL CONTINUE WITH RED FLAG              
FROM PREV FORECAST AND GO AHEAD AND EXPAND IT INTO SE ZONES AS                  
WINDS THERE WILL BE ABOVE CRIT ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE BORDERLINE.                  
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE               
FA DURING THE DAY. NAM IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND                
WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING. IF THE SLOWER SOLN IS CORRECT                  
COULD SEE CRIT FIRE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME IN THE SE AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH ATTM.                
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN AS PER PREV FCST WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING                
THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO                
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND                
THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS.                 
MODERATING TEMPS WED/THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT                  
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL ADD POPS TO               
FRIDAY FORECAST BASED ON TIMING OF THE UPR SYSTEM AND FNTL                      
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IN THE AREA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  44  55  30 /   0  10  20  20                              
HOBART OK         75  41  53  27 /   0  10  20  20                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  46  64  32 /   0  10  10  20                              
GAGE OK           76  36  41  21 /   0   0  40  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     71  43  51  27 /   0  10  20  30                              
DURANT OK         71  51  71  36 /   0  10  20  20                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-            
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-                   
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-                   
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE/02                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
940 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AS 60 MPH IN PORTIONS OF THE                
LARAMIE RANGE...KEBK AND KPUM AT MID MORNING.  700 MB HEIGHT                    
DIFFERENCES OVER THE AREA WERE NEAR 60 METERS AT 12Z WITH MODELS                
INDICATING THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS             
ON THE LOWEST GATES OF THE MEDICINE BOW PROFILER WERE ALSO AT 55                
KNOTS AS OF 16Z.  SO IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE HAVE BUMPED UP                 
WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY.  MOST                
POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY...WHERE            
LIGHT SNOW FELL FOR A TIME EARLIER AT KRWL.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND             
300 MB JET STREAK HAVE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER WESTERN                    
COLORADO AT MID MORNING...EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.  THAT           
ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO SLOWLY SPREAD WEST...WITH LATEST MESOETA AND               
RUC FORECASTS KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST AND NORTH PARTS            
OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z.                                                         
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 220 AM...                                
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC            
STATES WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN                     
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SNOW STARTING UP OVER THE            
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER                 
TERRAIN OF CARBON COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO            
WESTERN WYOMING. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL BE              
ANOTHER MILD DAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO            
COULD FALL OVER THE PANHANDLE.                                                  
THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THEIR DRYING TREND WITH THE APPROACHING                
SYSTEM. THE NAM DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...               
AND THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FEATURE...                
NEITHER SOLUTION RESULTS IN MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE                 
WIND. THUS HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.                
ONE CERTAINTY IS COLDER TEMPS FOR THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND               
MONDAY.                                                                         
THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LEAVES A BLUSTERY               
DAY FOR THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BORA WIND EVENT OVER             
THE PANHANDLE UNDER A STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL HOLD             
OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH AS THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENT IS IFFY...BUT             
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW FOR THE SOUTHERN            
PANHANDLE.                                                                      
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DIRTY RIDGE WILL SET UP BEHIND             
THE MONDAY SYSTEM ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THROUGH                      
WEDNESDAY.  WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS                
REGIME.  ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WY ON THURSDAY                
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY                     
THURSDAY.  LOOKS TO BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW                 
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  RIDGE BEHIND THIS                
SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THOUGH THE WEEKEND.                                        
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEILAND                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   wy