AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1120 PM EST TUE DEC 27 1999                                                     
CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM ON THE MOVE. WILL UPDATE                  
FORECAST TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLOUD UP            
FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...THEN QUICKLY REACH SOUTHERN CWA. IN THE             
NORTH...STILL A COUPLE OF HOURS COOLING REMAINING...ALTHOUGH NOT                
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. ACROSS SOUTH...STILL               
SEVERAL HOURS OF COOLING. WILL UPDATE TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS.                    
WILL ALSO ADD 30 PERCENT POPS TO BAY...MIDLAND...SAGINAW COUNTY ZONE            
FOR SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST ETA/NGM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THAT 30             
TO 50 MB CPDS...ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP...TO FAR            
NORTHWEST CWA BY 12Z. SO WILL UPDATE TO ADD CHANCE POPS THERE.                  
.DTX...GALE WARNING...LAKE HURON...LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.                    
       GALE WARNING LAKE ST CLAIR TUESDAY.                                      
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EST MON DEC 27 1999                                                     
00Z RAOBS SHOW PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE WRN RDG/ERN TROF OVR                     
NAMERICA. ETA 0HR ANAL SHOWS 180KT H3 JET/SHRTWV DROPPING SWD E OF              
RDG AXIS INTO ERN TROF...AND WELL DEFINED QUICK MOVG CLD LEAF WITH              
TOP TEMPS NR -60C APRNT ON IR IMAGERY IN VCNTY OF 145KT H3 WND RPRT             
FM YPL. 995MB SFC LO OVR WRN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV...             
AND PRES FALLS AS GREAT AS 12MB/3HRS RPTD NR LK WINNIPEG THIS EVNG.             
OBS SHOW AN AREA OF MDT SN OVR SW ONTARIO IN VIGOROUS H85-5 QVECTOR             
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 PVA AHD OF SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
DEPICTED ON 285-290K SFCS OVRRNG SHARP WARM FNT STRETCHING SWD FROM LO          
TO ND. PCPN RATES ALSO ENHANCED BY MSTR ADVCTN ASSOCIATED WITH 50KT             
H85 WNDS AND PW 0.50-0.60" (CLIMATOLOGICALLY HI FOR CLIPPER TYPE                
SYS) FM KBIS TO CYQD. LEADING EDGE OF SN JUST REACHED YQT AT 03Z AND            
ON TRACK TO REACH NW ZNS BY MIDNIGHT EST. IR LOOP SHOWS CLD AHD OF              
SHRTWV HAS OVRSPRD ENTIRE CWA. SFC TEMPS/DWPTS GENERALLY 5 TO 15F/0             
TO 5F OVR FA.                                                                   
MAIN FCST CONCERN TNGT IS IMPENDING SN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES.                  
EARLIER MODELS WOEFULLY UNDERDID MSL PRES FALLS WITH LO PRES...WITH             
12Z AVN F12 SLP ALMOST 10MB TOO HI. 00Z H85 WNDS ALSO HIER THAN FCST            
GIVEN STRGR SFC PRES GRADIENT. SO LEANED TOWARD LATEST RUC                      
GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS 992MB SFC LO REACHING NE LK SUP BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH         
TRACK OF STORM SYS NOT FVRBL FOR CWA...RUC IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER            
MODELS SHOWING A 6 HR PD OF VIGOROUS H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC CROSSING               
CWA NW-SE OVRNGT AS H5 SHRTWV APRCHS. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LO LVL MSTR             
CNVGC UNDER UPR LVL DVGC IN EXIT RGN OF UPR JET ALSO PRESENT...WITH             
GREATEST DIFFERENTIAL DVGC OVR ZNS BORDERING LK SUP CLOSER TO SFC LO            
TRACK. 2-3G/KG AVBL BTWN H75-7 WOULD EQUATE TO 2-3" SN IN 6 HR PD               
BASED ON IMXR TECHNIQUE. BUT WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...XPCT              
20 TO 1 SN/WATER RATIO AND UP TO 6". BEST CHANCE FOR THESE AMTS IN              
KEWEENAW CLOSER TO SFC LO TRACK AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY...WHICH MIGHT            
BENEFIT FM SOME MOISTENING OFF LK MI WITH MORE SSWLY TRAJECTORY TO S            
OF QUICK MOVG STORM. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVY FOR NRN TIER               
ZNS/SCHOOLCRAFT CLOSER TO STORM TRACK AND BEST DIFFERENTIAL DVGC.               
CONFIDENCE INCRSD BY MDT RISK OF 4 INCH SN AMTS ACRS ECNTRL CWA                 
MENTIONED IN LATEST HVY SN DISCUSSION...CLIMATOLOGICALLY HI PW                  
UPSTREAM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE CLD LEAF...50 KT H85 WNDS AND VERY DEEP            
SFC LO/PRES FALLS. HAVE ALSO ADDED BLSN WORDING TO ADVY IN NW                   
ZNS/SCHOOLCRAFT DUE TO BETTER EXPOSURE NR LKS...BUT MENTIONED BLSN              
ALL ZNS WITH LLJ PROGGED TO CROSS CWA DURG NGT. BUT HI STABILITY IN             
WAD WL PREVENT COMPLETE MIXING. BLO ADVY SN AMTS WL FALL ACRS THE               
SRN TIER FARTHER FM SFC LO/BETTER DIFFERENTIAL DVGC.                            
STRG WAD/CLD COVER MEANS MOST STNS WL REACH LO TEMPS EARLY...NOT FAR            
FM PRESENT READINGS...WITH TEMPS RISING LATER.                                  
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...SN AND BLSN ADVY OVRNGT MIZ001>003.                                      
       SN ADVY TNGT MIZ004-005.                                                 
       SN ADVY LATE TNGT-EARLY TUE MIZ006-007.                                  
       SN AND BLSN ADVY LATE TNGT-EARLY TUE MIZ014.                             
       GALE WRNG LK SUP OVRNGT.                                                 
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1020 AM EST MON DEC 27 1999                                                     
SFC AND 850 RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST IS GIVING THE AREA NORTH FLOW FOR             
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO              
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE                
RIDGE DROPS TO THE SOUTH. 12Z RUC AND 06Z MESOETA BOTH HAVE TIMING              
OF THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE OCCURRING GRADUALLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z            
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THE ORIENTATION OF THE                
SNOW BANDS FROM THE NORTH ORIENTATION CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON KAPX TO             
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST BY 06Z TONIGHT.                                 
ZONES OUT BY 16Z.                                                               
APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...                                              
      THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ008-015-021-026-027-032.                              
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1047 AM CST MON DEC 27 1999                                                     
THE LATEST RUC...ETA AND NGM SHOW THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDING               
ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GOING FROM N TO SW            
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AS THIS OCCURS THE LOW               
CLOUDS ACROSS C AND NC SD WILL ADVECT EASTWARD BRINGING MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES BACK TO NE SD AND WC MN. ALSO...PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIG CHALLENGE               
WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY. COLD AIR ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN WILL              
MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA AS WAA BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE            
...WITH A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW CLOUDS...TEMPS             
WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM AROUND 15 IN FAR NE SD AND WC MN TO 45             
IN JONES COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE                
MANY CHANGES.                                                                   
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
503 PM EST MON DEC 27 1999                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEW              
YORK MAKING EASTWARD PUSH INTO VERMONT.  LONGER LOOP OF WATER VAPOR             
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.              
TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO HAVE HELPED ENHANCE TO CLOUDS              
OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  RUC DATA HAS DEPICTED THIS                      
SHORTWAVE WELL.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HOLDING ONTO LOWER                 
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...UNTIL             
DRYING TAKES PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE ALREADY UPDATED NEW YORK               
ZONES EARLIER AND WILL NOW ADD MORE CLOUDS INTO FORECAST FOR FIRST              
PART OF TONIGHT IN VERMONT.                                                     
EVENSON                                                                         
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
905 PM EST MON DEC 27 1999                                                      
CUR SIT...KAKQ 88-D SHOWS A BAND OF SN ACRS VA NRN NECK WHIT -SN                
BEING REPORTED IN ACCOMACK AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE NECK.  TRENDS THE            
PAST 1/2 HR HAS SHOWN THAT THE AREA IS DEC IN COVERAGE HOWEVER WL               
WATCH CLOSELY AND ASSESS IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.  REPORTS INDICATE            
THAT IN NORTH UMBERLAND AND LANCASTER CNTYS HAVE ARND A 1/2 IN ACCUM            
ATTM. BOTH MESO ETA AND RUC SHOW A WK S/W AT H700 ACRS NRN VA AS WELL           
AS A 500 AND 300 JETS ACRS ERN VA. BELIEVE THAT THE COMBO OF                    
THESE FEATURES ARE FUELING THE SN DEV. HOWEVER AM PROBLEMS FNDG                 
SOMETHG ON THE MICRO AND MESO SCALE FOR THE LOCALIZED ENHAMCMENT.               
FOR THE REMAIDER OF THE AREA. THE S/W TROF WL CONT TO ROTATE S ACRS             
THE REGION AS THE MAIN WAVE IN NRN MS AND AL MVS INTO GA AND SRN AL.            
MODELS SHOW LOW AND MD LVL MOIST ACRS THE NRN HALF OF CWA THRU THE              
NIGHT SO WL KEE FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF NRN PART OF FA. BELEIVE THE S WL           
REMAIN DRY THOUGH. TEMPS LOOK OK FOR NOW.                                       
NO SIG CHANGES IN THE MARINE.                                                   
.AKQ...NONE.                                                                    
SHADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
952 AM EST MON DEC 27 1999                                                      
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALRDY GIVING WAY TO NEXT              
FAST MOVING CLIPPER AS SATL SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CLDNS INTO WRN                
WVA. MAIN QUES THIS AFTN WITH HOW FAR SE TO BRING MENTION OF -SN                
GIVEN ECHOES NOW ALONG THE OH/WVA BORDER. WITH THE LATEST                       
MESO-ETA/RUC INDICATING PRECIP INTO THE FAR NWRN ZONES BY 00Z AND               
STILL ENOUGH LOW LVL UPSLOPE RH IN PLACE...WILL INTRO A LATE AFTN               
LOW CHC MAINLY SE WVA GROUP. ELSW ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MID CLDNS ON             
THE INCRS...PLAN TO OPT FOR INCRSG CLDNS BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIP                 
MENTION. THINK CAN HOLD PIEDMONT ZONES TO MNLY PC WITH LEE CI EARLY             
AND ONLY A GRDL INCRS IN MID DECK BY LATE AFTN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST              
TEMPS UP SLGTLY OUT EAST BASED ON MORN THICKNESS AND OFFSET OF WEAK             
CAA BY DOWNSLOPE OTRW GOING FCST GNRLY ON TRACK.                                
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1243 PM CST MON DEC 27 1999                                                     
...CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND WINDS...                                 
SATELLITE INDICATING LOWS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING FROM BOTH EAST AND              
WEST...WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING WINDS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH            
RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.                                                           
ALL MODELS INITIALIZED SIMILAR WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST            
CONUS...TROUGH IN EAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER QUAD CITIES                   
REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL               
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS. RIDGE IN WEST TO WEAKEN                
AND FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS ALASKA INTO NORTHERN BRITISH              
COLUMBIA BY 48 HOURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING TIGHT OVER WESTERN             
CONUS...LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN TROUGH IN EAST.                      
TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAVE             
CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES. 15Z RUC INDICATES THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE              
QUICKLY AND WON'T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATING LOW               
MOVING TOWARD GREAT LAKES DEEPENING AS HIGH OVER WEST BUILDS. THIS              
WILL INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA...KEEPING WINDS A FACTOR              
OVERNIGHT. WITH MIXING WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS              
TO BE A BIT TRICKY. WILL SEE TEMPS COLDEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN               
WARMING SLOWLY BY DAYBREAK.                                                     
TUESDAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WINDS WILL MIX EARLY...AND WILL SEE                   
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST...WINDY EAST. THEN AS SURFACE LOWS LIFTS TO              
THE EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO                  
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. BIG CONCERN IS TEMPS ON              
TUESDAY. WITH VERY SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND STRONGEST IN               
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST...EXPECT WARMEST THERE WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE              
COMPONENT. 850 MB TEMPS TO 9 C IN FAR SOUTHWEST AND 4-5 C IN                    
NORTHEAST. THIS EQUATES TO SURFACE TEMPS IN LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST...TO            
MID 50S N NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A MORE NORTHERLY            
FLOW THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED...WILL GO THIS ROUTE.                   
TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH ATMOSPHERE                 
REMAINING DRY. WITH GRADIENT WEAKENING...WINDS TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING             
TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDS 20S TO AROUND              
30 WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.                                                   
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW...           
GOOD DOWNSLOPE. HOWEVER...WINDS NOT AS STRONG. WITH 850 MB TEMPS                
RANGING FROM 11 C IN SOUTHWEST TO 8 C IN NORTHEAST...EQUATES TO MID             
TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST...AROUND 60 NORTHEAST CWA.                               
EXTENDED...DRY THROUGH PERIOD. COOL DOWN BEGINS THURSDAY AS CLIPPER             
DRAGS DRY FRONT THROUGH EARLY WITH ALASKAN HIGH SETTLES INTO                    
REGION. THICKNESSES FROM 552 THURSDAY DROP TO 534 FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. FMR TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS IN 50S THURSDAY...30S                
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS 20S THURSDAY...TEENS FRIDAY...INTO THE                
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.                                                         
.LBF...NONE                                                                     
M. MUTCHLER                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
201 PM EST MON DEC 27 1999                                                      
MESOHIGH OVER NE SC ATTM SHIFTED WINDS TO LIGHT ESE OVER E CENTRAL              
SC...MESOHIGH DRIFTING SLOWLY NE AND FILLING...SO EXPECT WINDS                  
TO BECOME W OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY RUC. LITTLE CHANGE IN           
MODELS FROM PREV RUNS...AND MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. EXPECT MAINLY            
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF WEEK. POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS            
UPR LVL VORT AND SFC TROF/WEAK COLD SURGE/FRONT PASSES BY. VERY DRY             
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY SO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS           
TUE. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE W US FINALLY BREAKS DOWN MIDWEEK AND             
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THU               
SHIFTS LLVL WINDS TO SW AND RAPID WARMUP EXPECTED THU AND FRI WITH              
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS FRI BEFORE SYSTEM              
PASSES BY SAT.                                                                  
CWF...UPR IMPL MOVES ACRS AREA TNGT/EARLY TUE DRIVING NXT CDFNT/TROF            
ACRS WATERS. WINDS SHUD STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA...BUT WILL MENTION SCEC           
FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS WHERE NW WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT           
RANGE EXPECTED LTR TNGT THRU TUE NGT. NW-W WINDS NR 15 KT EXPECTED              
ACRS SC WATERS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS RGN ON WED WITH            
SOME REDUCTION IN WS AS SFC RIDGE APCHS THE SE CST. HI MOVES EAST ON            
FRI AS SFC TROF DVLPS TO THE W. PRES GRAD TGTNS FOR FRI AND WINDS CUD           
APCH SCA CRITERIA...SPLY ACRS SC WATERS...BUT WON'T MENTION FOR NOW             
AS MARGINAL AT BEST. WK CDFNT SHUD MOVE INTO WATERS LT FRI NIGHT THRU           
SAT MORN. SCA CONDS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FNT AT THIS TIME.                     
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
JAC/SLB                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
630 AM EST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
SNOW RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST AS EVIDENT ON MQT 88D                        
RETURNS...WITH BACK EDGE THROUGH ALL BUT ERN COUNTIES. BEST                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MSTR FOR HEAVY SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF FA AND              
OUT AHD IN WRM SECTOR OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING 987 MB SFC LOW NOW                   
CENTERED EAST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE                   
RAPIDLY SEWD SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WHAT 00Z MODELS HAD PROJECTED AT              
12 HRS.                                                                         
PREFER ETA AND RUC ON DETAILS WHICH DIGS SERIES OF STG VORT                     
MAXES WEST AND SOUTH OF FA TODAY MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT WV LOOP IS              
INDICATING ATTM. THIS DIGGING OF VORT MAXES TO WEST WILL DRIVE                  
SFC-8H LOW ON MORE SSE TRACK DOWN TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING              
PER RUC...ALLOWING FOR MORE DIRECT NLY PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO FA               
PER ETA.                                                                        
CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN STG CAA BEHIND SFC              
LOW. ETA FCST SNDGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES FM SFC-850 MB WITH MAX 25            
KNOTS OF WND OVR WEST THROUGH MIXED LYR AND 30 KNOTS IN EAST. WITH              
SYNOPTIC SNOW DONE THIS MORNING HAVE EXPIRED SNOW ADVISORIES.                   
HWVR...STG WNDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO BLOWING AND                  
DRIFTING OF FALLEN SNOW TODAY. HAVE STRESSED THIS ELEMENTS IN ZFP               
AND WSW EXPIRATION.                                                             
THIS AFT AND EVNG LOOK FOR LES TO KICK IN WITH GOOD CAA BEHIND                  
DEPARTING LOW...ESPECIALLY OVR ERN COUNTIES WHERE INV HGTS WILL                 
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER AND GOOD CYCLONIC LLVL FLOW NOTED WITH LAKE                 
INDUCED TROF. LAKE DELTA-T INCREASING TO 17-20C THIS AFT YIELDS 1-3             
INCHES THIS AFT AND THEN ANOTHER 1-3 TONIGHT FOR ALGER-LUCE-NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT PER DECISION TREE.  WENT 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND 1-2 MORE              
THIS EVNG OVR ONT-CMX WHERE STG WNDS AND SLIGHT BACKING OF NW FLOW              
WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME FOR COLD AIR TO PICK UP MSTR OVR LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. FETCH FAVORED OVR ERN MQT COUNTY TO PICK UP 1-2 INCHES OF             
LES TODAY...AND THEN 1-2 INCHES THIS EVNG. ETA INDICATING FLOW                  
BACKING AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD                
HELP SHUT OFF LES MACHINE.                                                      
ANOTHER IN SERIES OF SHRTWVS TO MOVE IN FM NW LATE WED ALTHOUGH                 
MODELS NOT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM QUITE AS STG OR MOIST AS LAST.                   
HVWR... MODELS HAVE TENDED TO UNDER ESTIMATE PUNCH OF CLIPPERS OF               
LATE. WITH GOOD QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WENT WITH CAT POPS               
FOR -SN WED AFT.                                                                
FWC TEMPS WAY TO HIGH TODAY GIVEN CAA FCST...THUS HAVE UNDERCUT BY              
AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES. LOWS LOOK A TAD BIT ON COOL SIDE TONIGHT               
GIVEN MODERATING ONSHORE FLOW MOST OF NIGHT.                                    
.MQT...GALE WRNG LK SUP TODAY.                                                  
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
955 AM EST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
AS EXPECTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT... IR SAT PIX SHOW DENSE SCU NOT                  
SURVIVING TRIP OVER APPS THIS MRNG. THIN BAND OF AC/CI DISSIPATING              
ON SRN END. WILL CONTINUE MOSNY FCST. UA ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF MOVING             
ACROSS CAROLINAS W/ DOWNSLOPE FLOW SPREADING E. FLOW SHOULD OFFSET              
WEAK CAA IN PLACE PER MSAS ANALYSIS. LOCAL SCHEMES GIVE LWR-MID 50S             
ACROSS CWA THIS AFTN & WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 16Z READINGS.             
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY NEED TWEAKING AS WELL AS MTRS SHOW N TO NE WINDS            
ATTM. BUT NW MAY STILL BE FLAVOR OF THE DAY.                                    
CWF: WINDS LGT NRLY ALONG CSTL STATIONS BUT W 10-15 OFFSHORE W/ MESO-           
LO ANALYZED OFF CLKN7. MSAS SHOWS BEST CAA CURRENTLY DOWN S W/ RUC &            
MESO-ETA STILL HOLDING ONTO 20KT THIS AFTN. WILL SPLIT AT STATE LINE            
W/ SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER SC WATERS BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA               
CRITERIA. WILL REMOVE GUSTY WORDING AS H95 WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AOB               
25KT. FINAL DIRECTIONS WILL BE BASED ON 15Z-16Z OBS.                            
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
234 PM EST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
ZFP/MODELS: MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BE MIN               
TEMPS WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE WARNING AND LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH                
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE                
FEATURES. LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY AT IT/S MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE WILL             
LIFT NE ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE SE STATES               
WHICH WILL BRING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. AT THE SURFACE...A                
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS             
FL INTO THE GULF AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. TIME/HEIGHT            
XSECS INDICATE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THU.                 
FWC/FAN TEMPS GUIDANCE GENERALLY SIMILAR AND WILL GENERALLY BE                  
FOLLOWED. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/S MINS. WHILE IT                  
APPEARS MANY AREAS WILL REACH 32 DEGREES...IT WILL BE FOR A SHORT               
DURATION. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PLACES LIKE CEW AND TLH AIRPORT THAT               
ARE EXPOSED AND NORMALLY RADIATE WELL. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING              
FREEZE WARNING ATTM...BUT WILL MENTION BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN                  
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS INDICATED FOR WED              
NIGHT INDICATING THE CONTINUANCE OF MODERATING TREND THAT WILL                  
EXTEND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                                
MARINE: NEWEST SET OF MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WE              
WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE                 
DROPPING OFF TOWARD MORNING. THE EXTENT OF THIS INCREASE IS IN                  
QUESTION WITH ETA/AVN INDICATING SCEC CONDITIONS AND NGM SHOWING SCA            
WINDS. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS NGM NUMBERS...BUT WITH GENERAL WEAKENING             
OF THE GRADIENT INDICATED BY THE MODELS (INCLUDING NGM) WILL STAY               
JUST BELOW SCA ON OFFSHORE LEGS FOR NOW.                                        
FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG EVENT VERIFYING THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A                  
MARGINAL EVENT FOR WED AND WILL GO WITH WATCH INLAND ZONES ONCE                 
AGAIN.                                                                          
EXTENDED: BEAUTIFUL START TO THE NEW MILLENNIUM ON TAP AS THE ZONAL             
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MILD AIR TO THE REGION. A WEAK DRY FRONTAL              
PASSAGE ON NEW YEAR/S DAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.               
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY DAY.            
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  30 63 33 69  0000                                                          
PFN  39 61 40 64  0000                                                          
DHN  35 58 38 65  0000                                                          
ABY  32 60 35 67  0000                                                          
VLD  33 60 36 66  0000                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL SUNSET INLAND FL COUNTIES.                          
  ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED AFTN INLAND FL COUNTIES.                            
  ...SCEC SUWANNEE TO DESTIN OUT 60 NM.                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION.                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
955 AM EST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
ZONES...WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPR IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL FL AND             
A DRY SLOT/UPR TROF AXIS DROPPING ACROSS CNTRL GA AND THE BIG BEND.             
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN WITH THE MID-HIGH                
DECK BEING DEPRESSED TO THE SE. CURRENT ZONES REFLECT THIS TREND                
WELL AND WILL AMD FOR WORDING AROUND 11 AM. NEXT COLD FRONT/TROF                
OVER N-CNTRL GA AND SHOULD GO THROUGH ARND NOON/EARLY AFTN. THIS                
FEATURE SHOULD BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS             
OVER THE INTERIOR LOOK TO DROP OFF TO NOTHING BY WED AM AND WITH                
CLEAR SKIES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT FOR HTE                 
SUWANNEE VALLEY/INTERIOR SE GA.                                                 
MARINE...GRAYS REEF CURRENTLY WNW 16 KT SEAS 2 FEET AND SAUF1 NW 10             
KT. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT WE HAVE A SHIP...KGTH...78 NM ESE OF            
FLAGLER BEACH REPORTING WINDS W 28KT...WIND WAVES 2-3 FT....W SWELL             
6-7 FT. SINCE THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TAKEN FROM THE TOP OF A MAST 60-             
80-100-? FEET ABOVE THE WATERLINE AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE             
WIND SPEED....BUT WILL INCREASE THE SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE PORTION TO             
5-7 FEET DUE TO THE SWELL REPORT. THIS WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA FOR              
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.                                                            
LOOKING AT THE MODEL RUNS RUC SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS REPORT            
THE BEST...WITH MESO-ETA A CLOSE SECOND. WILL TEND CLOSER TO THE                
MESO-ETA HANDLING OF COASTAL WINDS THIS AFTN/TNGT AS IT SEEMS TO BE             
HANDLING THE NEXT TROF/FRONT BETTER.                                            
FIRE WX...FIRE WX FORECASTER IS MONITORING MIN RH'S AND A RED FLAG              
WARNING MAY...REPEAT MAY...BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE PORTIONS OF SE              
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTN.                                           
THANKS FOR THE COORD KMLB...KCHS.                                               
.JAX...                                                                         
GA...FIRE WX WATCH TODAY.                                                       
     SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND-FERNANDINA BEACH 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.                     
FL...FIRE WX WATCH TODAY.                                                       
     SCA FERNANDINA BEACH-FLAGLER BEACH 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.                      
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
230 PM CST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC/MSAS ANALYS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE HURON                   
WITH FRONT INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS. SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS               
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CWA WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 30S/40S.             
SECONDARY FRONT /BACKDOOR/ EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO                
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS                  
INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WHILE INCREASING NORTHWEST            
WINDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW HAS HELPED TO SEND THESE LOW CLOUDS SPILLING             
SOUTH OVER MUCH OF CWA.                                                         
CONCERNS A PLENTY AND INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE            
OVERNGT INTO WEDS MORNING...TEMPS AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT...AND PCPN              
CHCS WITH 1) SECONDARY SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDS AND 2) FROPA             
EARLY THURS.                                                                    
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND ADVERTISE TRANSITION TO                  
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. NET RESULT WILL BE SWITCH TO GENERALLY DRY             
AND SOMEWHAT MILD PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS ZONAL FLOW              
KEEPS CANADIAN AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH.                                
IN SHORT TERM...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN                 
LOW CLOUDS WITH LATEST RUC INDICATING SOME DRYING IN LOWEST LEVELS              
TAKING PLACE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWS DRYING IN H7-H9 LAYER FROM NORTH TO                
SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. NGM/AVN               
ALSO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. CONCERN THEN                 
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT              
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH WEAK SUSBIDENCE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT                  
DON/T BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING SNOWMELT AIDING IN SENDING MOISTURE SKYWARD.            
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT WITH            
ETA MORE PRONOUNCED ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE. FEEL ETA LOOKS MORE REPRESENTATIVE THUS LOW CLOUDS              
AND PATCHY FOG A REAL POSSIBILITY. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FREEZING               
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING AS ETA FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS REVEAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDING WITH            
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED ABOVE 700 MBS.                     
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IS           
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING.             
ANY DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE HALTED AS ALL MODELS              
POINT TO WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND               
SURGING EAST BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. WHETHER IT BE LOW               
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OR WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF           
CLOUDS AROUND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING AFTER SOME DECREASE               
THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY. FWC VERIFYING POORLY AT 18Z                 
WITH 3 HRLY TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGS WARMER THAN FWC INDICATES.               
SAME APPLIES TO MOISTURE...THOUGH NOT DOING AS POORLY...ONLY AROUND             
5 DEGS TOO LOW. BRUNT OF ANY DRYING WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD                  
REMAIN TO OUR EAST SO WILL ADJUST MINS UP CLOSER TO CURRENT DEWPTS.             
ON WEDNESDAY...SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS                 
SWEEP THRU DURING FIRST HALF OF DAY WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME                 
DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AVN KEEPS THINGS FAIRLY MOIST IN               
LOW LEVELS. ISENTROPIC INSPECTION OF 290K SFC SHOWS WEAK UPGLIDE                
SHIFTING ACROSS REGION EARLY WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS                
OF 30 TO 50 MBS SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.           
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH              
MEASURABLE LOOKS VERY SLIM TO NIL. FAVOR BLEND OF FWC/FAN ON TEMPS.             
SNOW FIELD DISSIPATING AND LOSING AFFECT ON TEMPS.                              
MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONT FOR LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PCPN CHCS             
LOOK MEAGER. AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN WITH SPLIT FLOW AS NORTHERN                 
ENERGY DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...WHILE SOUTHERN ENERGY               
EJECTS OUT FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PLAINS. AVN HINTING AT SOME               
LIGHT (TRACE) AMOUNTS OF PCPN THURS EVE...BUT WITH BEST FORCING                 
TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH WILL OPT TO REMOVE...HATE TO              
FLIP FLOP. SOME COOLING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT                 
AND FRIDAY...THOUGH DOESN/T LOOK AS COLD.                                       
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
LATEST MRF SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THRU PERIOD. UKMET SHOWS               
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND GREATLY DIVERGES IN UPPER PATTERN LATE IN             
WEEKEND SHOWING LONGWAVE TROF OVER WESTERN US WITH RIDGING FROM OHIO            
VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST US AND TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND. ECMWF APPEARS TO            
BE TRENDING TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED /TROF/RIDGE/TROF SOLUTION ALTHOUGH            
A TAD SLOWER THAN UKMET WHILE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALSO                  
LEANING TOWARD UKMET SOLUTION. EVEN WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL              
THEME IS MODERATING TEMPS OVER LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT           
WEEK. MRF NOT AS AGRESSIVE WITH COOL DOWN FOR NEW YEARS DAY AND QUITE           
A BIT WARMER BEYOND WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 8-12 DEG WARMER THAN                   
PREVIOUS RUN. LATEST FMR GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AND IS ROUGHLY 7 DEGS           
WARMER FOR NEW YEARS DAY AND DRAMATICALLY WARMER FOR MONDAY BY ABOUT            
15 DEGS. WILL TWEAK TEMPS UP A NOTCH FOR NEW YEARS DAY AND CONTINUE             
TREND THRU MONDAY. AS FOR PCPN...DPROG/DT FROM MRF SHOWS A TREND IN             
SPEEDING UP REMNANTS OF WEST COAST LOW WITH SYSTEM NOW SLATED BY MRF            
TO SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. WITH NORTHERN STREAM           
ENERGY WELL NORTH AND REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMOVE                  
MENTION OF PCPN FOR SATURDAY AS WERE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE ONCE AGAIN.           
COULD SEE LEAVING IT IN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES THOUGH.                              
COORD WITH KDMX                                                                 
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
05                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
200 PM CST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
LAST IN THE SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE              
GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED               
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS                  
EVENING. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN POST FRONTAL LOW                   
CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES. 19Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LEADING EDGE             
OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR KSPI-KEVV LINE. NGM/ETA/RUC ALL INDICATE A                   
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH LEADING EDGE               
REACHING MDH-PAH-HOP LINE AROUND 03Z. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION                    
OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT UNDERCUT MOS LOWS BY MUCH...RELYING HEAVILY ON             
THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS UP.                                                    
CHANGE TO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS EASTERN U.S. TROUGH            
LIFTS OUT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW QUICKLY THE WARMUP WILL TAKE            
PLACE. ETA/NGM INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE NORTHWEST AT               
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. FLOW RAPIDLY BACKS AROUND             
TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN              
EARNEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN COLDER              
NGM MOS AND WARMER AVN MOS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF                
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SWEEPS OUT ANY REMAINING            
LOW CLOUDS.                                                                     
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL                   
APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS             
MISSOURI DURING THE DAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE             
AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM...SO FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.                         
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MRF RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON             
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR FRIDAY...AND BEGINS SOUTHWEST RETURN               
FLOW SOONER. MRF IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND NOGAPS...            
SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE              
IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE FA SUNDAY. DESPITE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT               
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL MENTION PRECIP FOR DAY 5 IN LINE WITH              
MRF MOS POPS.                                                                   
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
220 AM CST TUE DEC 28 1999                                                      
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING LINE MOVING THROUGH              
JONESBORO AND SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY ZONE ISSUANCE. CIGS               
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 4400 FT IN TUP TO 2500 FT IN MKL. 07Z SFC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWED SFC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SW TEXAS W/ RIDGE AXIS                 
NOSING INTO NRN AR AND NW TN.                                                   
DECENT PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY              
AS LOW DEEPENS VCNTY LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL SUPPRESS RIDGE AXIS               
SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF AND WILL KEEP A DECENT SFC GRADIENT ACROSS                
THE AREA. 00Z ETA/06Z RUC AGREE IN PUSHING NARROW...SFC-925 MB                  
MOISTURE AXIS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SE PORTION OF THE CWA             
MAY BE THE SLOWEST TO CLEAR...BUT EVEN THERE MSUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE             
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROG OFF THE ETA SUPPORT            
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M 40S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                                 
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER AND GENERAL WARMING TREND IN STORE            
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO                   
LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS SW CANADA. 00Z AVN INDICATES THAT S/W ENERGY            
FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MS            
VALLEY ON THU. AVN HINTS AT SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF ATTENDANT             
SFC TROUGH...BUT WILL CONTINUE W/ DRY EXTENDED FCST ATTM.                       
MEM 044/031 052/040 000                                                         
MKL 040/026 049/036 000                                                         
JBR 046/031 050/039 000                                                         
TUP 043/029 051/037 000                                                         
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
CBD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn