000
FGUS72 KJAX 060412
ESFJAX
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125-
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-280000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 AM EST WED JUN 06 2007

      ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE 
JACKSONVILLE CWA ON JUNE 2ND THROUGH THE 3RD. PERSISTENT DRY HIGH 
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY WEAKENED AND 
SHIFTED EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM 
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT 
RAINFALL AMOUNT...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT 15 TO 18 INCHES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO END LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS 
WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. LONG TERM DROUGHT EFFECTS STILL 
PERSIST.

EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND 
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS RAGING AND 
PERSISTENT WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE JACKSONVILLE CWA. 
RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2007 ALSO CONTINUE TO WORSEN AT ALL OFFICIAL 
CLIMATE SITES. SITES SUCH AS LIVE OAK FLORIDA AND ALMA GEORGIA NOW 
HAVE RAINFALL DEPARTURES OVER 10 INCHES FOR 2007 WITH SITES SUCH AS 
HOMERVILLE GEORGIA AND SAINT SIMONS ISLAND GEORGIA APPROACHING THE 
10 INCH DEPARTURE MARK AS WELL.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30 YEAR NORMALS... 
...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR 2007 FOR SELECTED
CITIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MAY 27TH.
 
    STATION            OBSERVED     30 YEAR   DEPARTURE      PERCENT OF
                       RAINFALL     NORMAL    FROM NORMAL    NORMAL

JACKSONVILLE FL           9.07       16.84     -7.77         54
YEAR 2007                                      
 
GAINESVILLE FL           10.34       16.61     -6.27         62
YEAR 2007                                   

LAKE CITY FL              9.85       17.71     -7.86         55   
YEAR 2007

GLEN ST MARY FL           8.64       17.49     -8.85         49
YEAR 2007

LIVE OAK FL               8.01       18.93     -10.92        42  
YEAR 2007

FEDERAL POINT FL         10.30       15.35     -5.05         67 
YEAR 2007

ST SIMONS GA              6.58       16.28     -9.70         40
YEAR 2007                                      

ALMA GA                   7.39       19.23     -11.84        38
YEAR 2007                                     

WAYCROSS GA               8.72       17.65     -8.93         49
 YEAR 2007

HOMERVILLE GA             9.92       19.91     -9.99         50
 YEAR 2007

FOLKSTON GA               8.97       17.08     -8.11         53
YEAR 2007

BRUNSWICK GA              8.46       16.12     -7.66         53
YEAR 2007

  
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL. OF 
FIVE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES INCLUDING JAX...GNV...AMG...SSI...AND 
CRG...DEFICITS RANGED FROM 2.17 INCHES AT SAINT SIMONS ISLAND TO 
2.67 INCHES AT ALMA GEORGIA. THE GREATEST ONE DAY RAINFALL TOTAL 
RECORDED WAS 0.54 INCHES AT GAINESVILLE ON MAY 17TH ASSOCIATED WITH 
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS 
INCREASED TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH...ACCUMULATIONS WERE 
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TROPICAL STORM BARRY BROUGHT 
SOME RECOVERY IN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 
RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.

STREAMFLOWS HAVE MADE SOME RECOVERY WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY. FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...OF 9 RANKED USGS 
SITES...5 ARE RUNNING AT 15% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. 
THE REMAINDER ARE 50 TO 60% OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. FOR NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA...THREE QUARTERS OF THE RANKED SITES ARE RUNNING AT LESS 
THAN 25% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WHILE THE REMAINDER 
ARE RUNNING AT 50 TO 60% OF NORMAL.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES ARE STILL BURNING IN THE JACKSONVILLE CWA. 
CAUSES RANGE FROM DOWNED POWER LINES TO LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ARSON. 
AS OF JUNE 4TH...THESE ARE THE FIRES AND ACRES BURNED IN THE 
JACKSONVILLE CWA:

BIG TURNAROUND COMPLEX, GA...402,500 
BUGABOO SCRUB, GA...5,600
SWEAT FARM ROAD, GA...82,050 
DAIRY ROAD, FL...15,000 
FLORIDA BUGABOO...109,000

THE FLORIDA BUGABOO FIRE IS NOW CONTAINED. THE DAIRY ROAD 
FIRE...SWEAT FARM ROAD...AND GEORGIA BUGABOO SCRUB FIRES ARE OVER 
90% CONTAINED. FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO CONTAIN THE 
REMAINDER. 

RESIDENTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE FIRES ARE ADVISED TO HEED THE ADVICE OF 
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. 

PLUMES FROM THE WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND 
MAKE FOR POOR AIR QUALITY DOWNWIND OF THE WILDFIRES ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST IN GEORGIA.

WITH EXISTING DRY CONDITIONS AND A BELOW NORMAL DRY FORECAST 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING SEASON...RESIDENTS ARE 
ADVISED TO REDUCE FIRE RISKS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. REMOVE YARD DEBRIS 
AND CLEAR GUTTERS. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN USING 
BURNING ITEMS OUTDOORS. 

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
CROP MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS 
CATEGORIZED BY NOAA/USDA AS EXCESSIVELY DRY. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX 
ALSO INDICATES THAT SOIL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW 
WEEKS. 

IN GEORGIA...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO HAMPER PLANTING AND 
PASTURE ESTABLISHMENT OR RENOVATION. CROPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO 
EMERGE...AND THOSE THAT DO SUFFER FROM EXTREME DROUGHT STRESS. 
LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS HAVE CONTINUED CULLING THEIR HERDS DUE TO LACK 
OF HAY AND GRAZING. 

IN FLORIDA...WINDY WEATHER HAS ACCELERATED THE DEHYDRATION OF 
ALREADY DRY TREES. RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO ASSIST TREES IN MAINTAINING 
MOISTURE FOR NEXT YEARS CROP. CITRUS GROWTH HAS BEEN SEVERELY 
AFFECTED. PASTURE FEED IS 80% VERY POOR TO POOR. CATTLE CONDITION IS 
70% VERY POOR TO POOR.

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (NEXT 10 DAYS)...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A MOIST 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES THIS WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK 
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL 
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO LOWER 70S.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE MONTHS OF MAY THROUGH JULY CALLS FOR A 
GREATER CHANGE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A NEAR EQUAL CHANCE 
OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SINCE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF 
INCREASED RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA...IT IS LIKELY THAT PROLONGED 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 
EARLY PART OF SUMMER. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ACTIVITY MAY BRING NEEDED RAINFALL. ALSO...THERE CONTINUES TO BE 
INDICATIONS THAT WEAK LA NINA OR ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP 
IN THE PACIFIC THIS SUMMER...WHICH DOES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES 
DURING THE LATE SUMMER INTO THE EARLY FALL MONTHS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN 
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX...OR 
VISIT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV. 

CREDITS...
INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY
DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...
WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF 
FORESTRY FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR 
CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT 
DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...THE EMERGENCY 
MANAGERS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.  

$$

HURLBUT/MCALLISTER/ENYEDI