SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
700 AM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
I UPDATED ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST                   
MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  NEW RUC IS SHOWING             
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN I            
EXPECTED EARLIER.  ONCE CONVECTION GETS STARTED OVER EASTERN PLAINS             
AND MCS POSSIBLY DEVELOPS...OUTFLOWS MAY PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER WEST             
AND SOUTH.  SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE EXTENDS INTO KIOWA AND PROWERS                
COUNTIES AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK.                  
OUTSIDE THESE REGIONS...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE OVER MONUMENT                  
RIDGE.                                                                          
REGION ON SOUTHEAST PLAINS LEAST LIKELY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND            
AREAL COVERAGE IS ZONE 77.                                                      
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
WOLYN                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGJT 260916  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
910 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
SFC RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND A WEAKENING AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED             
TSRAS STRETCHING FROM CROSS CITY TO NEAR JESUP. IR SATELLITE IMAGES             
SHOW MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER GA IN OUR CWA AND LIGHTNING             
PLOTS SHOW JUST A FEW STRIKES WITH THIS CONVECTION. SFC ANALYZED                
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE FAIRLY REPRESENTED              
BY THE ETA AND RUC MODELS. BY AROUND 05Z-10Z...SOME OF THE                      
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER FL                    
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE W OR SW PORTION OF THE CWA.               
RUC ALSO INDICATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENTERING THE SW CWA                    
TONIGHT. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW OF NEAR 2.1 INCHES...LI IS                   
-3...CAPE IS NEAR 800 J/KG. THEREFORE FOR THE UPDATE...WILL KEEP IN             
A CHANCE OF POPS W PART AND SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS                
LOOK FINE.                                                                      
02                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 270114  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
815 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY:  LRG AREA OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES FM NNE TO            
SSW BTWN POLK CO AND LEE CO.  RAFL INTENSITY GENERALLY LIGHT TO                 
MODERATE WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR            
UNTIL 9 PM.  AT THE SFC...USUAL AFTN TROF INITIALLY SET UP FM SE TO             
NW ACRS THE CWA BUT HAS PROBABLY DISSOLVED IN RAIN COOLED                       
AIRMASS.                                                                        
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE LATEST MESO ETA AND RUC SHOW WK S/W ENERGY              
SHIFTING TO A NE-SW AXIS IN LINE WITH MEAN FLOW (NNE) ABV 500 MB.               
COMBINED WITH A SMIDGEON OF UVV AND STILL HIGH MEAN RH VLUS EXPECT              
SHWRS TO SLOOOWLY WIND DOWN ESP FM SRN HIGHLANDS CO THRU ERN                    
CHARLOTTE AND LEE CO.  WILL WORD THOSE ZONES AS "ENDING AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT".  IN POLK...WILL WORD IT "BY MIDNIGHT".  OTRW...JUST LIKE             
FRI NIGHT THERE IS PLENTY OF DEBRIS FM OLD HITHER AND YON (YON BEING            
THE NW GLF COAST COMPLEX) SO WILL GO CONS CLDS.  WILL MAKE FINAL                
DETERMINATION BASED ON CONDS JUST PRIOR TO ZONE RELEASE.  CURR FCST             
TEMPS IN THE LM 70S RIGHT ON.                                                   
WILL HAVE TO WATCH PSBL MORNING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.  FOR                 
NOW...WITH LOW LVL FLOW VRBL TO S OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY IN               
THE MARINE AREAS ONLY AND LEAVE POST-DAWN SHWR/TSTM PSBLTY FOR THE              
MID SHIFT TO DECIDE.                                                            
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH MAIN AXIS OF                   
HEAVIEST RAINS TO BE DETERMINED BY FINAL LOW LVL BDRY LOCATION.                 
WITH MEAN FLOW EVEN A BIT MORE NELY EXPECT WHATEVER ACTIVITY THAT               
DEVELOPS TO CARRY TWD THE COAST.                                                
MARINE:  STILL QUIET.  CURR BUOY OBS SHOWING WINDS AOB 10 KT AND                
SEAS AOB 2 FT.                                                                  
ZONE UPDATES AVBL BY 10 PM.                                                     
GOLDSMITH                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 261944 COR  fl                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
210 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 1999                                                      
READERS DIGEST VERSION...THE CURRENT ATL ZFP'S/KMIA SFD LOOK FINE.              
NOVEL VERSION...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MENTIONED BY THE                
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND THE PRIMARY AREA OF                
PRECIPITATION IS NOW HINGED OVER THE GULFSTREAM. LOOKING AT THE                 
CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN THE MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS SEEM TO BE            
DOING A FAIR JOB IN HIGHLIGHTING THE MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. PATCHY           
FOG STILL EXPECTED NEAR DAWN.                                                   
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR                 
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED              
TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE           
TWO FEATURES IS SETTING UP A MEAN LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA (FA). THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT                  
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.                                
LOOKING AT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES A DIRTY SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS EVIDENT             
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO LOUISIANA.            
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES WITH             
THE NGM MODEL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE INDICATING A MORE ROBUST HIGH               
CENTER AT H2 OVER THE FA.  MEANWHILE AVN/ETA MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS              
OVER THE FA. STILL DON'T SEE ANY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OR JET                  
STREAKS DEVELOPING OVER THE FA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO UPPER LEVEL            
FORCING IS NIL.                                                                 
LOOKS LIKE OUR INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE LOCALLY GENERATED. PRECIP             
WATER (PW) OVER MUCH OF THE FA IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 2.3 INCH            
RANGE AND CONSIDERING THE OBSERVED PW WAS 1.97 OFF THE 00 UTC                   
SOUNDING SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. NGM               
COMPUTED LIFTING INDICES ARE LOW BUT AVN AND ETA ARE IN THE -4 TO               
-5 RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NGM HAS A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY             
ON SAT AFTERNOON THAN THE OTHER MODELS. NGM/AVN MOS GUID HAVE BEEN              
RUNNING ABOUT 3-4 DEG HIGH ON HIGH TEMPS AND 2-3 DEGREES HIGH ON                
LOW TEMPS WILL ADJUST TEMP FORECAST.                                            
IN A NUTSHELL...WE'LL SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (40 PCNT) CONVECTION             
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARINE...CURRENT MARINE                  
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES RECOMMENDED.                                     
PRELIM                                                                          
AMG 87/72/88/73 6353                                                            
SSI 86/72/87/73 6353                                                            
JAX 88/72/91/72 6353                                                            
GNV 89/72/91/73 5252 05                                                         
SANDRIK                                                                         
 fl                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1042 AM EST SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
15Z SFC MAP AND LAPS SHOWING THINGS HEATING UP QUITE WELL THIS AM               
EVEN THOUGH FAIR AMNT OF MID LVL CLDS AROUND. 15Z TEMPS ALREADY AOA             
80 WITH TDS ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. LAPS INDICATING RAPID                      
DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY IN AGREEMENT WITH 12Z ETA/RUC RUNS. CONCERN            
THIS PM FOR SCT THUNDER TO DVLP ESP IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE                  
250MB JET MAX IN IL HEADED THIS WAY. 12Z ETA/RUC BOTH SHOW                      
INCREASING UPR LVL DVRG WITH THIS FTR AND ATTENDING MOIST FLUX                  
CONV/THETA ADVT COUPLET OVR N IN BY 00Z. 12HR ETA QPF POINTING TO               
CONV PRECIP DVLPMNT THIS PM AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS             
BACK SW ACRS C AND S IL. AN THEREFORE INCLINED TO WAFFLE BACK IN                
POPS THIS PM ACRS S HALF OF IN ZONES. OTHERWISE PLAN ON TWEAKING                
TEMPS TO NR 90 N HALF OF IN CWA AND MI ZONES.                                   
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 260834  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
SLOW PROGRESSIVE 4 WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
HEMISPHERE WITH GLOBAL MOSAIC OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GMS-5...              
GOES 8/10...AND METEOSAT-7 SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE                  
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE                    
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONFIRM THIS BY THE MIDDLE OF            
NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN PUSHES THE                  
CURRENT WEST COAST TROF INTO THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH OF            
THE COMING WEEK. GOES 10/GMS-5 SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITH                 
ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS LINED UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH THE LEAD ONE            
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE NEXT TWO. DARKNESS ON WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS             
THE LEAD ONE BEING 70-80 KNOTS(CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT) APPROACHING               
THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE ONES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND EAST OF              
JAPAN ON THE ORDER OF 100 KNOTS OR BETTER. ALL OF THESE SHORTWAVES              
PLAY SIGNFICANTLY INTO THE COMING WEEKS WEATHER FOR THE AREA.                   
THE OVERALL PATTERN COMING THIS WEEK SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY                
FLAT RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST...TROF IN THE MID-CONTINENT AREA WITH A            
SW/NE RIDGE FROM OFF THE WEST COAST INTO WESTERN CANANDA.                       
NET RESULT FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA WILL BE TEMPERATURES AT OR                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE                
WEATHER PATTERN. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD             
CONTINUE PAST THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND INTO PART OF THE FIRST             
FULL WEEK OF JULY.                                                              
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
MORNING UPPER AIR/WATER VAPOR SHOWED SEVERAL INTERESTING FEATURES. A            
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 850-700 MB                
LAYER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH                    
MISSOURI. SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WERE MOVING THROUGH               
ARKANSAS AND UP THROUGH MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. 15Z RUC INDICATES THAT               
THE RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROP FOLD...AND AN                
AREA OF LOWER CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT            
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ALONG THE                
U.S./CANANDIAN BORDER WITH WARM/COLD FRONTS EVIDENT UP TO 850 MB.               
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A KBJI...KONL...              
KLIC LINE WITH A WAVE BETWEEN KLAA AND KGCK. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE                
BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. MOISTURE                  
ANALYSIS HAS MID AND UPPER 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
WITH 70 DEW POINTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.                                    
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...TIMING OF COLD FRONT...MESOSCALE               
FACTORS...AND THEN CLOUDS/TEMPS/POPS.                                           
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND SEEMED TO BE              
VERIFYING REASONABLY WELL AT 18Z. THE ETA/RUC DOES PLACE THE COLD               
FRONT BETTER THAN THE AVN/NGM BUT THE ETA/RUC ARE COMPLETELY MISSING            
THE CURRENT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THE NGM/AVN ARE                  
BETTER WITH THE AVN BEING OVERDONE AND TOO FAR NORTH. OVERALL THE               
AVN APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND STRENGTHENS            
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TOO MUCH. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE ETA IS TO            
BE TOO WEAK ON SHORTWAVES AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE. THUS            
THE NGM WILL BE FOLLOWED.                                                       
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DRIFT E/ENE AND                
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. RUC/NGM SHOW CONDENSATION              
PRESSURE DEFICITS TO REMAIN HIGH SO DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT LOOK                 
RIGHT ON WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. COLD FRONT IN THE               
PLAINS SHOULD STALL AT SOME POINT TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS A WAVE                
MOVES UP ALONG IT. QG FORCING AND THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS SUGGEST            
THAT AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD ANCHOR THE               
FRONT INITIALLY AND THEN MOVE IT EAST. SUNDAY FRONT SLOWLY                      
APPROACHES THE AREA AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST              
USING AFTERNOON/LATE IN THE DAY WORDING.                                        
MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS COLD FRONT             
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES                    
TRAVELING ALONG IT. GOOD DRYING/DOWNWARD MOVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT              
INDICATES CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.               
FWC/FAN ARE A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL GO ABOVE                 
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY FOR LATER                 
PERIODS.                                                                        
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY ALLOWING              
THE ONLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER. CURRENT SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK SOUTH            
OF THE ALEUTIANS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE START OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR            
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD              
COULD GET QUITE INTERESTING AS THIS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYS. FAIRLY                  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINS APPEAR LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS BEING                    
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY.                                                     
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...STL.                                   
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
 ia                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EARLY AM PKG EXCEPT TO DROP THUNDER FM PVD AND            
CAPE COD AND LEAVING SLIGHTEST CHC THUNDER EWB-UUU-WESTERLY WHERE CNV           
OCCURS ALONG DRY LINE. DRYING ALOFT PROBABLY OVERWHELMS AND NEGATES             
WITH CT UP NR 99F THIS AFTN...THUNDER NOT LIKELY IN OUR CWA.                    
MAX TEMP THIS AFTN COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS (NON                      
MARINE-INFLUENCED) 92-95 PER 15Z MWN WB OF 52 AND 12Z ETA FCSTG                 
29C 1000 MB TEMP THIS AFTN IN HOT WNW SFC FLOW. NO RECORD TEMPS                 
SINCE RECORDS ARE NR 100F.                                                      
SEABRZ NOT FCST (NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO OCCUR) COASTAL E MA THIS AFTN BUT            
TURNING OF WINDS TO SSW LIKELY ABOUT 10 MI OUT IN THE WATERS PER                
09Z AND 12Z RUC SFC WIND FCSTS. LESS WIND OUTER WATERS THAN ALONG THE           
MORE UNSTABLE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                  
WIND OVER THE INTERIOR (BAF/ORE/ORH) SHOULD GUST 22-26 KT FOR A 1-3             
HR PRD CENTERED ON 18Z PER DRY UNSTABLE ALY SOUNDING SFC TO 8K.                 
FLAGGED POTENTIAL OF THIS IN ETA TRANSFER MACRO.                                
UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID SIGNAL MONDAY AS NGM R1 FLOODS 90-99% RANGE ALL             
SNE 12Z MONDAY...SUGGESTING PATCHY DENSE FOG PREDAWN MONDAY ON DECENT           
SLY FLOW.                                                                       
WATER TEMPS THIS AM ON AND NEAR CC NATIONAL SEASHORE                            
RACE POINT   61F                                                                
HERRING COVE 64F                                                                
MARCONI      55F                                                                
.BOX...NONE.                                                                    
DRAG                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBOX 261403  ma                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1004 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EARLY AM PKG.                                             
MAX TEMP THIS AFTN COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS (NON                      
MARINE-INFLUENCED) 89-91F PER 13Z MWN WB OF 49 AND WRKSIG-STAB                  
PGM.                                                                            
CONTD SLIGHT CHC OF ISOLATED TSTM 20-23Z ON DRY LINE ROUGHLY                    
VCNTY EWB-UUU WWD. DRYING ALOFT PROBABLY OVERWHELMS.                            
SEABRZ NOT FCST (NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO OCCUR) COASTAL E MA THIS AFTN BUT            
TURNING OF WINDS TO SSW LIKELY ABOUT 10 MI OUT IN THE WATERS PER                
09Z AND 12Z RUC SFC WIND FCSTS. LESS WIND OUTER WATERS THAN ALONG THE           
MORE UNSTABLE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                  
WIND OVER THE INTERIOR (BAF/ORE/ORH) SHOULD GUST 22-26 KT FOR A 1-3             
HR PRD CENTERED ON 18Z PER DRY UNSTABLE ALY SOUNDING SFC TO 8K.                 
FLAGGED POTENTIAL OF THIS IN ETA TRANSFER MACRO.                                
.BOX...NONE.                                                                    
DRAG                                                                            
 ma                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1000 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
LATEST IR/VAPOR VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN             
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ALONG WITH AREA OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES                
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWER               
ACTIVITY EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF                     
WISCONSIN...AS WELL AS SOME CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP THIS                   
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST LOWER. FORECAST CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS                
REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER              
OF COUNTIES.                                                                    
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND              
THE 750 MB LEVEL...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR EXTENDING TO AROUND 400              
MB. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH LAST FEW               
HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING SURFACE                  
DEWPOINTS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA.                                   
LATEST RUC BRINGS DECENT AREA OF DPVA INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN             
BY 09Z. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STILL FEEL THAT SCATTERED POPS ARE A GOOD BET              
FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RUC SHOWS BETTER AVAILABLE             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER 09Z...SO WILL                
ALSO KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT WILL CHANGE            
WORDING TO BRING RAIN CHANCES IN LATE.                                          
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART. WILL ONLY TWEAK IN             
A FEW SPOTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                          
.APX...NONE                                                                     
ADAM                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 270158  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
700 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
...UPDATE TO PUT CHC OF TSTMS IN REST OF CWA OVERNIGHT/SPEED TIME OF            
SHWRS INTO CNTL PART OF CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...                                  
LASTEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS/SAT IR AND VIS/LDS DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF          
CONSENTRATED SHWERS AND SCT TSMTS JUST AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHWTWV. MSAS         
DATA SHOWS  3000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF BTL/I-94 AREA.  21Z RUC SHOWS GOOD          
AREA OF DPVA ASSOC WITH SHTWV MOVING ENE ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT AND RADAR         
CONTINUITY TAKES THIS LARGE AREA OF PCPN NE ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. PWAT          
ON MODELS INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES.  BOTTOM LINE... IT IS GOING TO            
RAIN TONIGHT. SO WILL UPDATE ZONES TO SHOW THAT.  RUC SHOWS -2 LINE TO          
N OF HTL BY 09Z... SO TSMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN CWA.  WILL UPDATE SPS           
FOR MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 262013  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN                        
SASKATCHEWAN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE              
EASTWARD AS SHORTWAVE PULLS NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG. 14Z MSAS            
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MINNESOTA...               
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING NORTH OF THE U.P. AND A COLD FRONT                    
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH             
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...BUT THE CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS WITH THE              
CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY TODAY.                                      
KDLH 88-D/LDS LOOPS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL             
MINNESOTA. 12Z RUC INDICATES A WEAK VORTICITY MAX NEAR THUNDER                  
BAY...WITH A TAIL DRAPING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE              
WEAK...THIS FEATURE HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO               
FIRE THE CONVECTION OVER MINNESOTA.                                             
USING A SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES               
SHOWING THE CONVECTION OVER MINNESOTA...THIS FEATURE WILL REACH                 
IRONWOOD BY 20Z. THE RUC ALSO BRINGS THIS FEATURE EAST DURING THE               
DAY...WITH A TIMING THAT AGREES WITH THE OBSERVED DATA.                         
14Z LAMP FOR IWD FORECASTS 90/60 MAX TEMP/DWPT. 12Z GRB SOUNDING                
MODIFIED TO REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS YIELDS A CAPE OF 600 J/KG.                 
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 03Z MESOETA...WHICH CALLS FOR UP TO 400 J/KG             
BY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC HAS 925MB LIS IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WITH A FOCUSING MECHANISM APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA AS THE                  
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN                
COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.                              
WINDSPEED HAVE PICKED UP AND WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE                          
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...LIGHTEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING                
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS             
AND LAMP GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH AT MQT IS 87F...WHICH               
MAY GO DOWN WITH NO LAKE BREEZE IN THE 20-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY                 
950MB FLOW.                                                                     
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 261458  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1058 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
GOING FORECAST HAS CURRENT SCENARIO WELL AT HAND. A BRIGHT AND                  
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITY WILL NOT            
BE OVERWHELMING TODAY HOWEVER AND PATTERN HAS NOT BEEN STAGNANT LONG            
FOR MUCH HAZE. 12Z RUC WOULD CONTINUE SUPPORT FOR A DRY FORECAST                
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND THE FLOW IS                 
STILL ANTICYCLONIC. 12Z MODIFIED APX SOUNDING WOULD GENERALLY                   
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH                
ONLY MODERATE WAA TAKING PLACE...MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT HIGHS OF             
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. 950 MB WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS            
AND LAND/LAKE DELTA T/S AROUND 25 DEGREES SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE                   
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND TOO FAR INLAND.                   
FOR UPDATE...HAVE ONLY FRESHENED UP WORDING AND TWEAKED A FEW HIGHS.            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
BAK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 261405  mi                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
NEARLY HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AT THIS             
TIME...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS DIMINISHING IN            
WESTERN AREAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING             
IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS DRYING IS                      
CONSISTENT WITH 18Z RUC WHICH INDICATES A 500 MB TROUGH IS PUSHING              
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD              
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST            
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AVN            
MOS POPS APPEAR TO BE WAY TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHT. I WILL EVEN UNDERCUT            
THE NGM MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT TO SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN                   
WESTERN AREAS AND SCATTERED (MOSTLY EARLY EVENING) POPS IN EASTERN              
AREAS. FOR SUNDAY...LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF                
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY WEAK MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN VALUES OF PAST               
SEVERAL DAYS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS LOWER NGM MOS POPS...AVN POPS AGAIN             
SEEM TOO HIGH. BY MONDAY...POPS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20%                
SINCE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING            
MECHANISM WILL BE IN PLACE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.             
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TO KEEP             
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVNS LOWER NUMBERS. OTHERWISE...NGM                 
NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH MONDAY.                                               
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MRF MODEL SHOWS COLD FRONT STALLING                  
ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT            
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. BY            
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SO ONLY ORDINARY                
ISOLATED SUMMER CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND                     
THURSDAY.                                                                       
QPF DISCUSSION: AIR MASS STILL VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS                     
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING TO START BY               
12Z SUNDAY. APPROACHING VORT MAX TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. BELIEVE MOST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE                
FIRST 12 HOURS. WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ON              
SUNDAY. AGREE WITH ETA AMOUNTS THROUGH 24 HOURS...WILL PLACE THE                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH (1/2 TO 1 INCH) WITH 1/4              
TO 1/2 ELSEWHERE.                                                               
.JAN...                                                                         
 MS...NONE.                                                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...NONE.                                                                     
15                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 260901  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1015 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
THE ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESOSCALE AND                
PROJECTED SHORT TERM CONDITIONS.  REGIONAL 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP                
SHOWED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE W AND NE OF THE CWFA WITH A             
FEW CELLS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IN             
FAR NWRN IA.  00Z/27 OAX SOUNDING WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /SBCAPES              
OF 2800 J/JG/ WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INHIBITION.  THUS IT WOULD               
APPEAR THAT ONLY MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE             
CONVECTION...BUT SO FAR THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE.  00Z/27 RUC                 
SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS CNTRL NEB              
OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING /LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND               
ISENTROPIC LIFT/ SHIFTING NWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH            
12Z.  THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE N...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE           
TO BE MAXIMIZED.  FARTHER S...FORECAST REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN AS                
CONVECTION ACROSS S CNTRL NEB CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  03Z OBSERVATIONS            
SUGGEST A WEAK E-W FRONTAL LINGERING IN THIS AREA...WHICH MAY BECOME            
ACTIVE ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.  E OR SELY STORM MOTION                
WOULD MOVE THIS CONVECTION INTO SWRN ZONES...SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED              
GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.  00Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWED 1.50                
INCH PW AXIS FROM N TX TO SRN NEB...SO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS              
THERE.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IF/WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE                     
RE-INITIATED.                                                                   
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 261958  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA...POTENTIAL FOR            
HEAVY RAIN...AND TEMPS                                                          
...SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE COOL FNT BTWN ONL AND ODX              
WITH OFK STILL REPORTING A SW WND AND DWPTS IN THE LWR 70S.  SOME               
ISOLD -TSRA DEV S OF MARYSVILLE MO...HOWEVER...THESE HAVE                       
DISSIPATED.  AM SNDING SHOWED WRMR MIDLVL TEMPS AND THIS WORKING TO             
HINDER DVLPMNT.                                                                 
...FORECAST...AS THE UPR LVL RDGE BECOMES MORE DEAMPLIFIED...WEATHER            
DISTURBANCES FM THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS             
VS BEING DIVERTED N INTO CANADA.  SFC LO PRES CONTINUES TO WKN OVR              
MN WHILE THE MAIN LO OVR WRN KS STRENGTHENS.  THE COOL FNT OVR CNTRL            
NEB BECOMES MORE ILL DEFINED AS A NEW BOUNDARY OVR SRN NEB/NRN KS               
BECOMES THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA             
THIS PKG.  IN THE SHRT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO                       
DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPS MAINLY FM 85 TO 90.  FCST            
CAPES ON THE ETA ARND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...BUT A LOOK             
OUTSIDE SAYS...THERE IS MORE MIDLVL WRMING THAN IS BEING DEPICTED BY            
ALL THE MODELS.  THE RUC DID PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA AND             
GENERATES SOME PRECIP IN SW IA NW MO BY 18Z...AGAIN LITTLE FOCUS                
HERE FOR STORMS THOUGH.  THE ETA CONTINUES DVLPMENT THAT IS TAKING              
PLACE IN MN AND 88D SHOWING SOME ECHOES FORMING IN KEY PAHA COUNTY              
IN NRN NEB.  WITH UPR DIV AND FNT...LOCATIONS ALONG THE FNT WILL SEE            
THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP.  BY 00Z...THIS WOULD BE NRN AND NE NEB TO              
THE NE.  AS THE SFC LO STRENGTHENS...THE BETTER MOISTURE                        
CONVERGENCE...IS IN SW NEB...AND GRADUALLY SAGS TO KS.  WITH THE                
ABOVE FEATURES IN MIND WILL WEIGHT POPS HIGHEST NR FNT AND IN SW CWA            
AND LEAST IN FAR E TON.  AS A STG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE            
SUN...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE.                                      
SOME CONCERN WITH HEAVY RAIN AS H85 DEWPOINTS FM 16 TO 19 DEG C OVR             
CNTRL NEB.  THE FCST SNDINGS HAV PRECIP WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.6                  
INCHES TON THRU SUN.  DESPITE STGR MID AND UPR LVL FLO...STM                    
MOVEMENT ONLY 5 TO 15 KT.  LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS POINTS TO E OR NE            
MOVEMENT WITH DEV S ALONG THE FNT.                                              
GUID TEMPS TOO COOL FOR OFK SUN AND WITH A LOT OF CLDS OMA/LNK                  
SHOULD BE AOB GUID.  AS THE N WNDS PICK UP SUN EVE...COOLER TEMPS               
FOR MON AM.  FOR MON...AVN HAS A WAVE MOVE ACRS THE NRN PLNS AND THE            
MRF TAKES IT FARTHER S...AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE MON DRY.                       
EXTENDED HAS DRY WX FOR TUE AND CHC FOR TSRA WED AND THU.                       
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 261916  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO REMOVE THE ERLY AM FOG             
THAT HAS BURNED AWAY. BUF/ALY 12Z RAOBS NEED A HEALTHY SFC                      
MODIFICATION INTO THE UPR 80S FOR A LONGSHOT AT ANY CONVECTIVE                  
DEVELOPMENT TAFTN. SUBS INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABV 800 MB ASSOC WITH             
DVLPG MIDLVL RIDGING MAINTAINS A SMALL CAP AND SHUD MIX DOWN A BIT TO           
HELP LESSEN LLVL INSTAB. ALSO NO TRIGGER EXPECTED AS SFC BNDRY THAT             
PASSED THRU YDY SITS ACRS CNTRL PA AND NEG H8 THETA-E ADVECTION                 
ONGOING ACRS CNY. PIT RAOB THE ONLY OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO BECOME                  
UNSTABLE TDY. 09Z RUC AND 03Z ETA KEY IN ON THIS WITH FCST LI'S OF              
ZERO TO -2 VCNTY OF THE BNDRY ACRS CNTRL PA...SO WY VALLEY THE                  
ONLY PLACE IN CWFA THAT HAS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ISOLD TSRA TO BREAK            
THRU THE CAPPING INV. FCST DRY ATTM AND BLV CHCS NOT GREAT ENUF TO              
CHANGE THIS. IF IT OCCURS WL GO NOWCAST ROUTE.                                  
TEMPS UPR 80S-NR 90 SUPPORTED BY THE FULL SUN AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS.            
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
BREWSTER                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 261350  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
ONLY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NOTED OVER ILM FCST AREA ARE DYING RW ALONG             
SEABREEZE IN NERN SC. BUT LINE OF DECAYING RW/TRW JUST SW OF AREA               
MOVING TOWARD WILLIAMSBURG/GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. WILL DECIDE ON POPS             
FOR THIS AREA AT PRESS TIME. ELSEWHERE... 00Z CSTL RAOBS SHOWED                 
DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY/CAPE W/ BEST PARAMETERS AT CHS.            
21Z RUC2 SHOWED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ALF LINGERING NEAR THE AREA               
OVRNGT & GENERAL SFC TROFINESS TO PERSIST SO WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL              
CHC OF PRECIP. FOG STABILITY INDICES DON/T SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR DENSE             
FOG DESPITE HIGH DEWPTS. TEMPS LOOK FINE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPTS &              
LAMP GUIDANCE.                                                                  
CWF: CSTL WINDS AVERAGING SW 10 KT. SEAS ARND 3 FT AT FPSN7/41004.              
SFC FEATURES AREN/T PROGGED TO CHANGE MUCH OVRNGT SO NO BIG CHANGES             
PLANNED TO FCST.                                                                
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 270108  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
IR/VIS SAT LOOPS SHWG CI CONTG TO SPRD NEWD ACRS FA THIS MRNG WITH              
PCPN STILL BACK ACRS WRN KY/SRN IL. 13Z SFC ANLYS INDICTG SFC TROF              
FM CNTL MO THRU SRN IL TO ERN KY WITH 70 DGR DWPTS UP INTO CNTL IND             
AND XTRM SW OH. TROF XPCTD TO CONT SLOW NWRD PUSH THRU THE DAY TDA              
WITH MSTR INCRSG FM THE SW. 09Z RUC HOLDING BACK ON BRINGING DPR                
MSTR IN THRU THIS AFTN SO XPCT ANY WIDESPRD PCPN TO HOLD OFF TIL                
TNGT. HOWEVER...MODIFIED ILN 12Z RAOB FOR HIGHS NEAR 90/DWPTS NEAR              
70 YIELDING CAPE OF ARND 2000 J/KG AND LI OF -4. WITH WK LLVL CONV              
ALG BNDRY THRU THIS AFTN...SOME TSTMS MAY STILL POP UP AND WL CONT              
LOW CHC POPS ACRS SRN PORTION OF FA.                                            
THINK CI WL CONT TO BE THIN ENUF TO WARRANT MSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF             
FA. HI CLDS SHUD HELP KP TMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. CENTER ENERGY BLOCK                
METHOD OFF MRNG SNDG GIVING 91.6 FOR HIGH TDA AT ILN WITH 90.7 WHEN             
ACCOUNTING FOR CI. 1000-850 MB THCKNSS ALSO PROGD TO BE QUITE A BIT             
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BY LATE THIS AFTN...ESPLCY ACRS ERN PORTIONS              
OF FA. THUS...PLAN ON BUMPING TMPS UP A LTL ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH NEAR            
90 ACRS THE W AND LOW 90S IN THE E.                                             
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
LOTT                                                                            
 oh                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
KGSP RADAR SHOWS TSRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...            
BUT ONLY DISSIPATING LITE RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSTATE SC. FOR         
THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE N OF AN         
AVL/CLT LINE AS IT DEVELOPS NORTHWARD INTO AN UNUSED AIR MASS ACROSS            
THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. THIS PARTICULAR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH               
TOWARD MIDNITE. WOULD LIKE TO UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER SOME OF THE PRECIP          
CHANCES...BUT AM NOT SURE THAT WOULD BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR           
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING FROM VORT CENTER SEEN IN            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OVER WRN TN/NWRN MS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR W           
OVERNITE...LATEST RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL FORCING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA          
AND TOWARD THE UPSTATE EARLY SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE RUC SHOWS AN             
AREA OF PRECIP MOVING BACK IN TOWARD NE GA/UPSTATE SC BY 09Z. FOR THAT          
REASON...WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES.                           
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 270109  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
850 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
21Z RUCII RUN SHOWS VORT LOBE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING EAST BY 03Z.           
BOTH WV STLT LOOP AND CAE 88D INDICATE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS FEATURE TO           
THE EAST. RUCII LIS SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS BETWEEN OGB AND CHS.         
THIS IS WHERE THE LTG DATA INDICATES THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS          
LOCATED. MOST ENERGY IS NOW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PLAN ON CUTTING           
POPS CONSIDERABLY DOWN TO ABOUT 30% WITH MAINLY SHOWERS BUT WILL MENTION        
A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S         
STILL OK.                                                                       
WRKZFP IN 5-10 MINUTES.                                                         
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
TTH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 261841  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
EARLY VIS IMAGES REVEAL ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CWFA...BUT               
SOME BREAKS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN-MOST              
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTEHRN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.                  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NEARLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FROM ALL BUT              
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND FOG TRNASFORMING TO HAZE WITH                    
CONTINUED VISIBILITIES BELOW 4 MILES MANY SPOTS.                                
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN ARE A BIT COMPLICATED. ELONGATED                  
SURFACE TROF OVER CWFA AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST STATES...UPPER LOW                 
DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT OVERALL TROF PATTERN IS DISPLAYED. WEAK                
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN                     
WIDESPREAD RW COVERAGE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES; LATEST RUC                 
KEEPS LOW LVL RH IN 80-90 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. CAPES ON               
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS HIGH AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER              
80S BUT MID LVL TEMPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL              
IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE SO HEAVY PRECIPITATION COULD FALL IN               
MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT                 
ON WHO GETS BRIEF BURSTS OF SUNSHINE. CURNT ZONES HAVE RANGE OF                 
TEMPERATURES...WHICH STILL LOOK GUD. MAY SPLIT OFF SOUTWHEST MOST               
COUNTIES SINCE SATELLITE WOULD SUGGST BREAKS IN OVC IMMINENT THERE              
AND GIVEN THAT GREENWOOD REACHED 89 ON FRIDAY.                                  
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 261401  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
946 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
DISC:  13Z ANALYSIS SHOWS WK BNDRY NW TO SE ACRS THE NRN PTN OF SC.             
SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS ACRS THE STATE THIS MORNING. A FEW BRKS          
JUST W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...BUT CLDS BEGINNING TO FILL IN EVEN THERE.        
12Z RUC INDICATING SFC FRNTL BNDRY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO MUCH THRU THE        
DAY REMAINING ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE STATE. AT H5...S/W MOVS VERY              
LITTLE THRU THE AFT ACRS THE ERN PTN OF THE STATE. WITH MODELS SHOWING          
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVR THE AREA...MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLDS         
DURING THE AFT...BUT MSTLY CLDY WILL STILL DO FINE. WL KEEP HIGHER POPS         
WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED...WHICH IS ACRS NRN AND ERN SC         
NEAR THE BNDRY...LESS ALNG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPS             
GO...WL CONT TO MONITOR THRU ISSUANCE TIME...BUT MID 80S MAY BE OK FOR          
MOST AREAS.                                                                     
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LCV                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 261332  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
838 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC MDL SHOWING A S/W MOVING IN AND AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART           
OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THIS         
S/W OVER WY AND INTO W SD...WHERE THERE IS WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS          
AND SOME SHRAS/TSRAS. BASED ON THE SATELLITE AND RUC...WILL PUT IN A            
CHANCE OF SHRAS ACROSS C AND NC SD FOR LATER TONIGHT AND GO WITH MOSTLY         
CLOUDY. DUE TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE C AND NC...WILL UP THE LOW TEMP           
FORECAST A LITTLE. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO NE SD AND WC MN               
FORECASTS.                                                                      
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 262005 COR  sd                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
248 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
CDFNT IS MOVING THRU HEART OF CWA ATTM...WITH PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT             
INTO SW MN AND NW IA.  SRN END OF FNT ACRS NERN NEBRASKA HAS REALLY             
SLOWED TO A CRAWL...SIGNALING A REFOCUS TO AREA OF CONCERN TOWARD S             
AND E.  ON WV/IR...SUBTLE JET IMPULSE LOOKS TO BE SLIPPING INTO ND              
ATTM WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED GLANCING THRU WRN SD...PERHAPS HELPING            
TO INITIATE NCTNRL NEBRASKA CONVECTION IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER              
MID LVL AIR.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCEWISE... MAIN DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE           
IN THE SWRD PUSH OF LO LVL BNDRY.  OVERALL..AVN IS A MELD OF TYPICAL            
NGM AND ETA POSITIONS...AND SEEMS TO HAVE GUD HANDLE ON PROGGED UPPR            
DVRG FLDS AT 6H...ESPLY UPSTREAM IN INTERMOUNTAIN W.  ETA NOT TOO               
BAD AS WELL...AND ACTUALLY PREFER FLATTER RIDGE OVR NRN PLAINS FOR              
MOST PART.                                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STLT SOUNDER AND LAPS             
ARE CLOSE IN SHOWING GREATEST INSTABILITY ACRS ERN 1/2 OF CWA...                
WHERE CAPES ARE 1500-2000 J/KG...AND INHIBITION HAS DECREASED TO                
10 TO 30 J/KG...WITH ATTAINABLE LFC BLO 700 HPA. MUCH OF CWA LIES               
BTWN BEST PCPN FORCING.  WOULD BELIEVE THAT LARGE PART OF FORCING               
FOR PCPN TNGT IS MOSTLY RELIANT ON LOW LEVEL FEATURES...WHICH WOULD             
SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY LT AFTN AND EVNG...BUT WL HAVE             
TRAILING EDGE OF RRQ FOR BIT OF BOOST THIS EVNG. LTST RUC INDICATES             
THAT DEGREE OF LOW LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE 21Z-00Z ALG             
BNDRY AS IT EXITS SD CWA...BUT DOES NOT ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THE                  
PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT.  WHILE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE ON                  
LARGER SCALE FOR SIG ORGANIZATION OF STMS...LCL ENHANCEMENTS ALG                
PREFRONTAL SHIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW DEVELOPING STORMS OVR              
SVR THRESHHOLD THIS EVNG ACRS SW MN AND NW IA...ESPLY ENCOURAGING               
IS THE PROFILER AT WDL.  MARGINAL SVR HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS                 
WOULD BE LARGEST THREAT...WITH ADDED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING RAINFALL            
ACRS SRNMOST CWA.  FFG HAS RECOVERED IN THESE AREAS...EXCEPT FAR                
NE NEBRASKA...BUT WITH ENHANCEMENT OF VEGETATION NOW...WOULD THINK              
IT MAY BE ON LOW SIDE ANYWAY.                                                   
DIFFICULTY FROM THEN OUT HAS TO DO WITH EFFECT OF WK RIPPLES IN                 
ZNL FLOW.  SOME AGREEMENT BTWN MDLS THAT A DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE                
FORCING WITH INTERMOUNTAIN W WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT CWA LT TNGT                  
W...AND THEN THROUGH MOST OF CWA ON SUN.  LIKE OVERALL ETA POSITIONING          
OF POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHEST POPS ACRS              
SRN CWA SUN.  COOLER AND POTENTIALLY COOLER AIR WILL MEAN A CHILLIER DAY        
FOR CWA...ESPLY WITH RAINFALL...BUT FWC TMPS SEEM TOO COOL.  TRAILING           
IMPULSE LEAVES SUN NGT WITH LINGERING SHRA E.  SOME HINT THAT LLM               
WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SRN CWA.                                                  
ON MONDAY...RESIDUE OF MCS COULD BRUSH SRN CWA...AND WL CARRY ONLY              
SMALL POP TO COVER...WHILE DEEPER DRY AIR PROTECTS NORTHERN AREAS.              
TMPS TO SHOW A MODEST RECOVERY AS WELL.                                         
EXTENDED RANGE POSES OWN SET OF PROBLEMS AS FLOW TRANSISTION TO                 
NRN PLAINS DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES...WHICH AT LEAST MDLS ALL SUPPORT.             
TUE LUKS TO BE DRIEST TIME...WITH EXCEPTION BEING BY EVNG IN WRN CWA.           
DRY AIRMASS AND WK FLOW FOR COOL START TUE...THEN SHUD HEAT OUT                 
MODERATELY WELL.  SFC BNDRY PUSHES THRU CWA SLOWLY WED AS JET                   
IMPULSE ROUNDS DEEPENING TROUGH...THEN CYCLONIC COLD CORE DOMINATES             
ON THU.  BEST MSTR FCST TO WRAP THRU NRN CWA...BUT AT THIS RANGE WL             
MNTN SHOWERS ALL AREAS AS STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE.  WL               
PROBABLY THROW IN MNTN OF TSRA AS WELL.  TMPS TO REMAIN WELL ON                 
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...NO SIG WARMUPS SUGGESTED THRU 4TH.                        
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 261538  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
955 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVER CWA IN ADVANCE OF H5 TROUGH...WITH              
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS                 
WELL REPRESENTED FROM 12Z BNA SOUNDING (A PWAT VALUE OVER 2                     
INCHES).                                                                        
FROM KMRX AND KHTX 88D/S AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC AND MESO-                    
ETA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON                  
ACROSS MOST OF EAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.             
SO WILL CHANGE ZONES TO REFLECT THIS TREND...OTHER THAN FOR AN                  
UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER OVER BLOUNT COUNTY TENNESSEE.                            
WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE ZONES AS PER             
THE 09Z RUC AND 03Z MESOETA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN CONSIDERING THE                 
"LOCAL" TERMINOLOGY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND LOOK GOOD FOR THIS           
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DM                                                                              
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
243 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...SHOWING SUMMER IS DEFINITELY HERE WAS           
NOTED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR             
THE MTNS...HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WITH LATE MORNING 70 READINGS             
FROM INK TO CNM. AT THE SURFACE...A TROF WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM               
BETWEEN CAO/DHT...TO WEST OF ROW...TO AROUND GDP. EARLIER...OUR 12Z             
RAOB INDICATED 7H TEMPS AT +15C...BUT 5H TEMPS HAD COOLED TO                    
-10C...MAKING FOR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WAS CAUSING AN              
AREA OF AC/ACC CLOUDS JUST NW OF HERE EARLIER. THE STRONG CAPPING               
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING STRONG FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN...BUT TERRAIN                
EFFECTS WAS CAUSING STORMS TO FIRE IN THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE...             
AND DAVIS MTNS.                                                                 
THROUGH THE EVENING...MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD HOLD FOR THE LOWLANDS            
THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE 18Z RUC...ALONG WITH THE 12Z             
MODELS SHOW 7H TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 15C...WITH 5H TEMPS                 
WARMING TO THE -6 TO -7 RANGE. WILL NOTE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED             
CONVECTION IN THOSE FAVORED PLACES. WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED...            
WILL GO FOR A SIMILAR FORECAST TOMORROW AND MONDAY. GOING ALONG WITH            
OUR MORNING UPDATE...WILL ADD MENTION OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST            
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. GULF MOISTURE MADE FURTHER NW PROGRESS THAN 1ST           
THOUGHT YSTRDY...AND A SIMILAR SOLUTION SUGGESTED IS TMRW MORNING.              
FOR THE EXTENDED...MEAN TROFFING AND THE NORTHERLY JET MAX WILL DROP            
FURTHER SOUTH. THUS WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED POPS              
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF            
THE FLATLAND AREAS DRY. FROM OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL KEEP A CHANCE            
OF CONVECTION IN THE MTNS.                                                      
WILL GO ABOVE MODEL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY THE TOO COOL NGM. WORK ZONES             
FOR THIS EVENING ARE ON THE WAY. 1ST GUESS NUMBERS BELOW.                       
MAF  71/101/70/103  -/0/-/0                                                     
CNM  70/103/71/104  1/-/1/-                                                     
MRF  61/94/61/94    1/-/1/-                                                     
P07  73/96/74/97    -/0/-/0                                                     
RSB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KEWX 261934  tx                                      

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
930 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
AXIS OF TAIL DRAGGING TROF REMAINS ALONG COASTAL PLAINS AND RUC                 
PROGS KEEP IT THERE THROUGH THE DAY.  REMNANTS OF NORTH TEXAS MCS               
PUSHING SOUTHWARD MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN UNSTABLE AIR             
MASS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.  EXPECT SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN            
AND WESTERN ZONES WITH HEATING UNDERWAY.  CURRENT 20 PERCENT POPS               
WILL STAND FOR NOW WITH CLOSE WATCH ON AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT.                    
.SAT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY                          
10/01                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 261440  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
319 AM EST SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
MODEL DIVERGE WITH DIFFICULT FCST AGAIN. NGM TOO STRONG WITH PLAINS             
SYS DY2 AND ETA NOT KEYING IN ON SUBTLTIES. LTST RUC AND WV                     
IMAGERY SHOW PLUME OF HI PWAT AIR RIDGED ACRS FA. WK WAVE FM NW                 
FA PER KLOT VWP TO SWRN IN. SWRN IN WAVE TO MOVE NE AND KEEP ERN ZNS            
IN OCNL SHRA/TSRA TODAY. WRN ZNS WL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FM CURRENT               
CONV BUT UNABLE TO RULE OUT LT AFTN TSRA WITH BNDRYS SET UP AND                 
CDFNT ACRS NWRN IA ATTM NEARING. HI THETA-E AIR/PWAT REMAIN THROUGH             
FCST PD AND HARD TO RULE OUT/TIME PCPN. BETTER CHC TSRA DY2 WITH                
FRONT APPROACHING HI CHC POPS. IGNORING NGM SVR WX POTNL ATTM.                  
PRIMARY THREAT COULD BECOME URB/SML STREAM FLODDING WITH HI PCPN                
RATE/DURATION WITH POOR MODEL SOLN UNABLE TO KEY ON HIGHEST FUTURE              
THREAT AREA...BUT WRN FA AND MI COS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN STM TOTALS           
1-2.5 GOOD BET.                                                                 
SBN WT 086/068 086/065 078 15545                                                
FWA WT 086/068 086/066 080 15545                                                
AOH WT 086/068 087/067 080 15545                                                
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
MURPHY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 270809  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1042 AM EST SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
15Z SFC MAP AND LAPS SHOWING THINGS HEATING UP QUITE WELL THIS AM               
EVEN THOUGH FAIR AMNT OF MID LVL CLDS AROUND. 15Z TEMPS ALREADY AOA             
80 WITH TDS ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. LAPS INDICATING RAPID                      
DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY IN AGREEMENT WITH 12Z ETA/RUC RUNS. CONCERN            
THIS PM FOR SCT THUNDER TO DVLP ESP IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE                  
250MB JET MAX IN IL HEADED THIS WAY. 12Z ETA/RUC BOTH SHOW                      
INCREASING UPR LVL DVRG WITH THIS FTR AND ATTENDING MOIST FLUX                  
CONV/THETA ADVT COUPLET OVR N IN BY 00Z. 12HR ETA QPF POINTING TO               
CONV PRECIP DVLPMNT THIS PM AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS             
BACK SW ACRS C AND S IL. AN THEREFORE INCLINED TO WAFFLE BACK IN                
POPS THIS PM ACRS S HALF OF IN ZONES. OTHERWISE PLAN ON TWEAKING                
TEMPS TO NR 90 N HALF OF IN CWA AND MI ZONES.                                   
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
TEH                                                                             
 in                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
SLOW PROGRESSIVE 4 WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
HEMISPHERE WITH GLOBAL MOSAIC OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GMS-5...              
GOES 8/10...AND METEOSAT-7 SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE                  
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE                    
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONFIRM THIS BY THE MIDDLE OF            
NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN PUSHES THE                  
CURRENT WEST COAST TROF INTO THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH OF            
THE COMING WEEK. GOES 10/GMS-5 SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITH                 
ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS LINED UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH THE LEAD ONE            
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE NEXT TWO. DARKNESS ON WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS             
THE LEAD ONE BEING 70-80 KNOTS(CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT) APPROACHING               
THE PAC NORTHWEST WITH THE ONES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND EAST OF              
JAPAN ON THE ORDER OF 100 KNOTS OR BETTER. ALL OF THESE SHORTWAVES              
PLAY SIGNFICANTLY INTO THE COMING WEEKS WEATHER FOR THE AREA.                   
THE OVERALL PATTERN COMING THIS WEEK SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY                
FLAT RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST...TROF IN THE MID-CONTINENT AREA WITH A            
SW/NE RIDGE FROM OFF THE WEST COAST INTO WESTERN CANANDA.                       
NET RESULT FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA WILL BE TEMPERATURES AT OR                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE                
WEATHER PATTERN. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD             
CONTINUE PAST THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND INTO PART OF THE FIRST             
FULL WEEK OF JULY.                                                              
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
MORNING UPPER AIR/WATER VAPOR SHOWED SEVERAL INTERESTING FEATURES. A            
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE 850-700 MB                
LAYER WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH                    
MISSOURI. SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WERE MOVING THROUGH               
ARKANSAS AND UP THROUGH MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. 15Z RUC INDICATES THAT               
THE RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROP FOLD...AND AN                
AREA OF LOWER CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT            
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ALONG THE                
U.S./CANANDIAN BORDER WITH WARM/COLD FRONTS EVIDENT UP TO 850 MB.               
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A KBJI...KONL...              
KLIC LINE WITH A WAVE BETWEEN KLAA AND KGCK. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE                
BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. MOISTURE                  
ANALYSIS HAS MID AND UPPER 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
WITH 70 DEW POINTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.                                    
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...TIMING OF COLD FRONT...MESOSCALE               
FACTORS...AND THEN CLOUDS/TEMPS/POPS.                                           
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND SEEMED TO BE              
VERIFYING REASONABLY WELL AT 18Z. THE ETA/RUC DOES PLACE THE COLD               
FRONT BETTER THAN THE AVN/NGM BUT THE ETA/RUC ARE COMPLETELY MISSING            
THE CURRENT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THE NGM/AVN ARE                  
BETTER WITH THE AVN BEING OVERDONE AND TOO FAR NORTH. OVERALL THE               
AVN APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND STRENGTHENS            
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TOO MUCH. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE ETA IS TO            
BE TOO WEAK ON SHORTWAVES AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE. THUS            
THE NGM WILL BE FOLLOWED.                                                       
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DRIFT E/ENE AND                
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. RUC/NGM SHOW CONDENSATION              
PRESSURE DEFICITS TO REMAIN HIGH SO DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT LOOK                 
RIGHT ON WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. COLD FRONT IN THE               
PLAINS SHOULD STALL AT SOME POINT TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS A WAVE                
MOVES UP ALONG IT. QG FORCING AND THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS SUGGEST            
THAT AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD ANCHOR THE               
FRONT INITIALLY AND THEN MOVE IT EAST. SUNDAY FRONT SLOWLY                      
APPROACHES THE AREA AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST              
USING AFTERNOON/LATE IN THE DAY WORDING.                                        
MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS COLD FRONT             
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES                    
TRAVELING ALONG IT. GOOD DRYING/DOWNWARD MOVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT              
INDICATES CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.               
FWC/FAN ARE A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL GO ABOVE                 
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY FOR LATER                 
PERIODS.                                                                        
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY ALLOWING              
THE ONLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER. CURRENT SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK SOUTH            
OF THE ALEUTIANS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE START OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR            
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD              
COULD GET QUITE INTERESTING AS THIS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYS. FAIRLY                  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINS APPEAR LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS BEING                    
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY.                                                     
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...STL.                                   
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
 ia                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EARLY AM PKG EXCEPT TO DROP THUNDER FM PVD AND            
CAPE COD AND LEAVING SLIGHTEST CHC THUNDER EWB-UUU-WESTERLY WHERE CNV           
OCCURS ALONG DRY LINE. DRYING ALOFT PROBABLY OVERWHELMS AND NEGATES             
WITH CT UP NR 99F THIS AFTN...THUNDER NOT LIKELY IN OUR CWA.                    
MAX TEMP THIS AFTN COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS (NON                      
MARINE-INFLUENCED) 92-95 PER 15Z MWN WB OF 52 AND 12Z ETA FCSTG                 
29C 1000 MB TEMP THIS AFTN IN HOT WNW SFC FLOW. NO RECORD TEMPS                 
SINCE RECORDS ARE NR 100F.                                                      
SEABRZ NOT FCST (NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO OCCUR) COASTAL E MA THIS AFTN BUT            
TURNING OF WINDS TO SSW LIKELY ABOUT 10 MI OUT IN THE WATERS PER                
09Z AND 12Z RUC SFC WIND FCSTS. LESS WIND OUTER WATERS THAN ALONG THE           
MORE UNSTABLE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                  
WIND OVER THE INTERIOR (BAF/ORE/ORH) SHOULD GUST 22-26 KT FOR A 1-3             
HR PRD CENTERED ON 18Z PER DRY UNSTABLE ALY SOUNDING SFC TO 8K.                 
FLAGGED POTENTIAL OF THIS IN ETA TRANSFER MACRO.                                
UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID SIGNAL MONDAY AS NGM R1 FLOODS 90-99% RANGE ALL             
SNE 12Z MONDAY...SUGGESTING PATCHY DENSE FOG PREDAWN MONDAY ON DECENT           
SLY FLOW.                                                                       
WATER TEMPS THIS AM ON AND NEAR CC NATIONAL SEASHORE                            
RACE POINT   61F                                                                
HERRING COVE 64F                                                                
MARCONI      55F                                                                
.BOX...NONE.                                                                    
DRAG                                                                            
 ma                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
CHALLENGE TODAY IS POPS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...                           
500MB FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGE OVER E CONUS AND TROF OVR GREAT               
BASIN. COLD FRONT EXTDS S TO NW WI-SE MN FROM 1003MB SFC LO OVR S               
ONTARIO AT 06Z. IR IMAGERY/88D SHOW CONVECTION ASSOC WITH FRONT                 
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AT 06Z WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. ANOTHER AREA             
OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI AND              
LK MICHIGAN...WITH W EDGE OF SHIELD CLIPPING NEAR LK MI NEAR SHORE.             
THIS AREA OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY SHRTWV ENERGY OVR S              
LK MI...AND UPR LVL DIV IN RRQ OF JET STREAK OVR ONTARIO.                       
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS CWA FROM W TO E TODAY. GIVEN TIMING OF              
PASSAGE...BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVR E CWA. RUCS                
PRS/WND FIELDS DEPICT FRONT FROM MUNISING-IMT BY 18Z WITH BEST LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED E OF FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPR 60S OVR SE               
CWA. ETA/RUC ALSO SHOWING 850 THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO                         
MNM-ESC...INCREASING SFC CONV AND BNDRY LYR LI'S IN -3 TO -5C. ETA'S            
POS BOUY ENERGY'S OF 1600J/KG BETWEEN 18-21Z. SOLAR HEATING ONLY TO             
BE LIMITED MARGINALLY BY HI CLOUDS. WBZ PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 9K-10K              
FT BY ETA...SUGGESTING HAIL A THREAT WITH ANY TSRA THAT DO DEVELOP.             
JET DYNAMICS ALSO COME INTO PLAY AS 100KT JET STREAK POSTIONS E CWA             
IN RRQ BY 21Z. GIVEN LOCATION OF PARAMETERS HIGHEST THREAT FOR                  
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR TSRA WILL BE MNM-ESC.                                       
COLD FRONT EXITS CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWV EJECTS FROM                  
ROCKIES AND APPROACHES CWA DURING MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE IN                    
DISAGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC                   
REFLECTION WITH AVN/NGM DEVELOPING EJECTING LO THAT RIDES NE ON OLD             
FRONTAL BDRY...DEEPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH E LKS INTO CANADA. ETA               
CONTINUES TO OFFER MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION...AND IS PREFERED BY NCEP.              
GIVEN SUPPORT OF STONGER SOLN BY ECMWF...AM NOT WILLING TO TOTALLY              
DISCARD AVN/NGM. WILL RETAIN SHRA ON MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVR CWA               
TUESDAY...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGING NEXT                 
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH RETURN FLOW OFF GULF BY LATE WEDESDAY/THURS.           
.MQT..NONE.                                                                     
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 270809  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW MOVING N/NE INTO N CENTRAL LOWER MI            
IS LINING UP VERY WELL WITH HIGHER DWPTS RIDGING INTO THIS REGION               
AND A NOSE OF LOWER LI'S IN THIS VCNTY PER LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS.                
WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK AND FZL IS AROUND 15 KFT...SO DO NOT                 
EXPECT SVR HAIL AND/OR GUSTS THIS MORNING. ALSO...AIRMASS OVER NRN              
LOWER IS STILL FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE...AND HAVE NOTED A GENERAL                 
DECREASE IN BASE REF AS STORMS MOVE N THROUGH THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST            
CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND THIS AREA OF PRECIP.                 
LATER PERIODS TURN TOWARD AFFECTS OF COLD FROPA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT             
AND THEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE                
ALONG THE FRONT FOR MONDAY DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTANCIES.                        
MODELS DIFFER WILDLY AFTER 24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF            
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SFC SYSTEM. ETA TRIES TO HOLD THE DEVELOPING SFC        
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT BAY...WHILE THE NGM AND AVN BOTH DRIVE             
THE SFC NE TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS IT FURTHER DEEPENS. NGM                
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION IN THE LONG WAVE               
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS A RESULT...NGM PROGS JET COUPLING               
OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING JET MAX TO THE NE AND ANOTHER              
JET MAX DIVING SE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS CREATING A DEEPER              
SFC RESPONSE. TENDING TO STEER AWAY FROM THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP SFC              
LOW PROVIDED BY THE NGM SOLUTION...BUT THINK THE ETA MAY BE TOO                 
PROGRESSIVE. AVN IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH REALITY            
LIKELY FALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN.                               
FOR TODAY...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SE CWA FROM HTL TO                
TAWAS TO GLADWIN IN THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND               
LATEST RUC THETA E RIDGE POSITIONING. WILL TAPER TO CHANCE POPS FOR             
THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE              
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK             
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA.                                             
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL          
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES E/NE INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES ON                  
MONDAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS            
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO WARRENT WIDESPREAD              
PRECIP. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE                  
ENTERS MI.                                                                      
.APX...NONE                                                                     
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 270727  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
100 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
UPDATED ALL BUT FAR NE LOWER MI ZONES TO INCREASE AND/OR ADD POPS               
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ELONGATED AREA OF SHRA NOW MOVING                
N/NE THROUGH THE WI WATERS OF LAKE MI WILL IMPACT FAR NW LOWER AND              
ERN UPR ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA IS MOVING N/NE            
THROUGH SW LOWER MI TOWARD N CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM NEAR CAD TO HTL              
ATTM. A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND HAS BEEN NOTED AS THE PRECIP MOVES N             
INTO A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS NOTED ON THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...            
BUT SHRA/TSRA IS HOLDING TOGETHER ENOUGH TO WARRENT MENTION OF SCT              
POPS THROUGH SUNRISE. LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWS A NOSE OF LOWER LI'S                
PUNCHING N INTO N CENTRAL LOWER MI WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL WITH            
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.                                                           
.APX...NONE                                                                     
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 270233  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1000 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                     
LATEST IR/VAPOR VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN             
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ALONG WITH AREA OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES                
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWER               
ACTIVITY EXTENDS NORTH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF                     
WISCONSIN...AS WELL AS SOME CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP THIS                   
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST LOWER. FORECAST CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS                
REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER              
OF COUNTIES.                                                                    
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND              
THE 750 MB LEVEL...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR EXTENDING TO AROUND 400              
MB. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH LAST FEW               
HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING SURFACE                  
DEWPOINTS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA.                                   
LATEST RUC BRINGS DECENT AREA OF DPVA INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN             
BY 09Z. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STILL FEEL THAT SCATTERED POPS ARE A GOOD BET              
FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RUC SHOWS BETTER AVAILABLE             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER 09Z...SO WILL                
ALSO KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT WILL CHANGE            
WORDING TO BRING RAIN CHANCES IN LATE.                                          
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART. WILL ONLY TWEAK IN             
A FEW SPOTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                          
.APX...NONE                                                                     
ADAM                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 270158  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
210 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS NRN AND WRN GA APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH A SMALL            
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DPVA WHICH THE 03Z RUC PUSHES INTO NE GA               
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AFTER 09Z. MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE SEEN IN WV            
IMAGERY OVER WRN TN TO MOVE ENE TODAY...BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS                
THROUGH CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. NGM/AVN A LITTLE SLOWER WITH              
ITS PASSAGE...BUT I TEND TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ETA SINCE WE ARE IN            
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. REGARDLESS...HIGH SFC DWPT AIR AND TONS OF                 
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SITTING AROUND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE               
UPPER WAVE AND WEAK DIVERGENCE TO WORK WITH TO CAUSE NUMEROUS                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE                
MTNS AND HIGH LIKELY ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ABATE                
TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS AND ENSUING SUBSIDENCE AND                  
DRYING IN THE MID/UPR LAYERS. ALTHOUGH...THE INITIAL SURGE OF MID               
LEVEL DRYING COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION EARLY IN THE                  
EVENING. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOS...WILL MENTION            
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MTNS.                                                
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE QUIETER WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY                
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND NO                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT.                 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVES BACK OVER THE             
AREA AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION                  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...PER CURRENT ZONE FORECAST.                                 
EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS TODAY. THEN A LITTLE WARMER             
MONDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TODAY AND A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS              
MONDAY.                                                                         
PRELIMINARY CCF...                                                              
AVL 078/068 083/069 085 26944                                                   
CLT 085/071 087/072 089 26774                                                   
GSP 084/072 087/071 090 26764                                                   
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOYER                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 270158  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
KGSP RADAR SHOWS TSRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...            
BUT ONLY DISSIPATING LITE RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSTATE SC. FOR         
THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE N OF AN         
AVL/CLT LINE AS IT DEVELOPS NORTHWARD INTO AN UNUSED AIR MASS ACROSS            
THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. THIS PARTICULAR CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH               
TOWARD MIDNITE. WOULD LIKE TO UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER SOME OF THE PRECIP          
CHANCES...BUT AM NOT SURE THAT WOULD BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR           
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING FROM VORT CENTER SEEN IN            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OVER WRN TN/NWRN MS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR W           
OVERNITE...LATEST RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL FORCING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA          
AND TOWARD THE UPSTATE EARLY SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE RUC SHOWS AN             
AREA OF PRECIP MOVING BACK IN TOWARD NE GA/UPSTATE SC BY 09Z. FOR THAT          
REASON...WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES.                           
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 270109  sc                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
250 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
CRP 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED SAME MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.                
PWAT ARE EVEN A TAD HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. MODERATE SURFACE TO                 
800MB WINDS...HOWEVER ARE INHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. DOPPLER            
RADAR INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE STREAMING               
NORTHWARD INLAND TOWARD THE PORT LAVACA AREA. MSAS SHOWS CONVERGENCE            
CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST. RUC INDICATED VORT               
MAX IN SAME LOCATION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TOWARD                   
SUNRISE THEN DECREASE AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.                         
PWAT PROGD TO DECREASE TODAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE CONT TO BUILD            
OVER TX...BRINGING IN LOWER RH VALUES TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WV               
SATELLITE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER TX QUITE WELL. ETA                
TIME SECTION ALSO PROGS DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MODELS              
KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC LOW TREKS                 
ACROSS PLAINS AND TOWARD GREAT LAKES AND SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDS EAST             
TO WEST OVER GULF RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. TEND TO AGREE             
WITH MODELS IN DECREASING POPS THROUGH 48 HRS DUE THESE FEATURES.               
EXTENDED...TOWARDS END OF WEEK...MRF PROGS UPPER RIDGE TO RETREAT               
WESTWARD AS UPPER TROF SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND A             
HINT OF A TROPICAL APPROACHES EASTERN MEXICO/DEEP S TX. IF THIS                 
HOLDS...NEXT 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND COULD BE WET. MRF ALSO PROGS A                 
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE TO TREK WEST ACROSS GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
MARINE...SCA TODAY AND MONDAY FOR THE BAYS...SCEC OFFSHORE.                     
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CRP BB 092/078 093/079 093 211                                                  
NGP    090/081 091/081 091                                                      
ALI    094/078 096/077 096                                                      
VCT BB 090/078 092/077 092 211                                                  
LRD BB 098/078 100/077 100 21-                                                  
.CRP...SCA IN EFFECT FOR GMZ230-235 (BAYS) TODAY.                               
81/TP...86/GW                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 270744  tx                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
245 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
VERY HIGH PWS OVER AREA (AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES) INDICATED BY LAST                
NIGHTS SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS. ANALYZED 27/00Z UPPER LEVEL SHOWS 19              
DEG DEWPOINTS AT 850 MB CRP AREA. SHEAR AXIS EVIDENT AT MID LEVELS              
(700-500 MB). MODELS INDICATE AXIS WILL HANG ON OVER REGION NEXT TWO            
DAYS WITH SLIGHT SE MOVEMENT BY LATE MONDAY AS UPPER HIGH OVER SW               
U.S./NORTHERN OLD MEXICO EXPANDS SOMEWHAT EASTWARD. AVN AND NGM MORE            
AGGRESSIVE DAY ONE WITH MOISTURE AND UVM AND ETA SOMEWHAT LESS.                 
1000-700 MB MEAN RH LOWERING IN DEPTH FROM LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY BY            
AVN INDICATING WEAK SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 700 MB. RUC INDICATE LOW LEVEL             
SPEED CONVERGENCE TODAY NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A            
ROBUST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT. WILL PUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FORECAST TODAY BECOMING           
ISOLATED DURING EVENING . WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON MONDAY AND              
70 PERCENT MEAN RH BECOMING SHALLOWER...WILL GO WITH WIDELY                     
SCATTERED MONDAY.                                                               
.HGX...NONE.                                                                    
37/46                                                                           
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BB 094/077 094/077 095 3221                                                 
IAH EB 093/077 094/077 095 4221                                                 
GLS EB 089/082 090/082 090 4221                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 270731  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
243 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 1999                                                      
RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...SHOWING SUMMER IS DEFINITELY HERE WAS           
NOTED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR             
THE MTNS...HAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WITH LATE MORNING 70 READINGS             
FROM INK TO CNM. AT THE SURFACE...A TROF WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM               
BETWEEN CAO/DHT...TO WEST OF ROW...TO AROUND GDP. EARLIER...OUR 12Z             
RAOB INDICATED 7H TEMPS AT +15C...BUT 5H TEMPS HAD COOLED TO                    
-10C...MAKING FOR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WAS CAUSING AN              
AREA OF AC/ACC CLOUDS JUST NW OF HERE EARLIER. THE STRONG CAPPING               
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING STRONG FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN...BUT TERRAIN                
EFFECTS WAS CAUSING STORMS TO FIRE IN THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE...             
AND DAVIS MTNS.                                                                 
THROUGH THE EVENING...MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD HOLD FOR THE LOWLANDS            
THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE 18Z RUC...ALONG WITH THE 12Z             
MODELS SHOW 7H TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 15C...WITH 5H TEMPS                 
WARMING TO THE -6 TO -7 RANGE. WILL NOTE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED             
CONVECTION IN THOSE FAVORED PLACES. WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED...            
WILL GO FOR A SIMILAR FORECAST TOMORROW AND MONDAY. GOING ALONG WITH            
OUR MORNING UPDATE...WILL ADD MENTION OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST            
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. GULF MOISTURE MADE FURTHER NW PROGRESS THAN 1ST           
THOUGHT YSTRDY...AND A SIMILAR SOLUTION SUGGESTED IS TMRW MORNING.              
FOR THE EXTENDED...MEAN TROFFING AND THE NORTHERLY JET MAX WILL DROP            
FURTHER SOUTH. THUS WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED POPS              
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY...AND KEEP THE REST OF            
THE FLATLAND AREAS DRY. FROM OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL KEEP A CHANCE            
OF CONVECTION IN THE MTNS.                                                      
WILL GO ABOVE MODEL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY THE TOO COOL NGM. WORK ZONES             
FOR THIS EVENING ARE ON THE WAY. 1ST GUESS NUMBERS BELOW.                       
MAF  71/101/70/103  -/0/-/0                                                     
CNM  70/103/71/104  1/-/1/-                                                     
MRF  61/94/61/94    1/-/1/-                                                     
P07  73/96/74/97    -/0/-/0                                                     
RSB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KEWX 261934  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DRYING IS SHOWING UP ON THIS MORNINGS                    
SOUNDING AND 2 QUESTIONS COME TO MIND IMMEDIATELY.  ONE WHY IS IT               
THERE AND 2 WHAT EFFECT WILL IT HAVE ON TODAYS WEATHER.  MY FIRST               
THOUGHT IS THAT IT IS SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT               
MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.  NOW HOW WILL             
IT EFFECT TODAYS WEATHER...I WOULD THINK THAT WE WILL SEE A LITTLE              
HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND               
SMALL HAIL.  LOOKS LIKE IT HAS ALREADY PUT A DAMPER ON NOCTURNAL                
CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CAPE ONCE AFTERNOON HEATING             
GETS UNDERWAY TO GIVE US GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.                            
K INDEXES WOULD SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT...BUT I THINK THAT IS               
MISLEADING BECAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS RIGHT AT THE CRITICAL               
850 MB LEVEL FOR THE K INDEX.  THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE 09Z RUC HAS              
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER               
THE NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SEE INCREASED MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT             
WAVE.  WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE DRYING WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO        
BE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS.  THIS WILL KEEP ACTION A LITTLE FARTHER              
INLAND THAN YESTERDAY. EXCEPT IN THE FT MYERS AREA...WITH THE RIDGE             
AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE BACK INTO              
THAT AREA LATER TODAY WITH THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.                             
TO SUM IT UP...A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL MAKE                 
ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD THERE.  BUT A DRY LAYER IN MID TO LOW                  
LEVELS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE CONVECTION REALLY STARTS              
FIRING UP IN THE SOUTH.  DRYING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE             
MAKING FOR A MORE VIGOROUS SEABREEZE...KEEPING MOST OF THE COASTAL              
AREAS RAIN FREE.  I WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST AND HWO ACCORDINGLY.               
SOBIEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 271342  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
845 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE                  
ACROSS THE CWA. AT MID LEVELS...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MID            
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND            
S/W  MOVG INTO MS. 88D SHOWG BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME                    
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVG  ACROSS SE GA ATTM. COMPARISON OF THE TWO        
MESOSCALE MODELS...MESOETA AND RUC...SHOWS THAT RUC HAS A BETTER                
HANDLE OF THIS SITUATION THAN THE MESOETA. SO THAT IS OUR MODEL OF              
CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM. PCPN ACROSS S GA ATTM IS MOSTLY IN                   
RESPONSE TO WEAK UPR LVL FORCING DEPICTED BY THE Q VECTOR FIELD TO              
THE WEST OF THE CWA. AREA OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING              
THE MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF SFC MSTR FLUX DIV.                         
12 SNDZ SHOWS A BIT OF A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THIS MORNING THAN             
YESTERDAY. WET BULB ZERO IS 12900 (MORE THAN 1000 FT LWR THAN                   
YESTERDAY) WITH PW OF 1.8 OR ABOUT .3 INCHES LESS THAN YESTERDAY.               
MODIFIED CAPES ARE ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THE LOWER WET-BULB IS IN RESPONSE           
TO SOME DRY AIR INTRUDING ABOVE H7 AND GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR             
LOOPS I DO NOT SEE THAT CHANGING MUCH. SO  GIVEN THIS SCENARIO THE              
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR HEAVY RAINNERS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. A FEW               
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE             
HEATING IS GREATEST.                                                            
ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR BOTH GA AND FL. DO NOT PLAN                     
AMENDMENTS ATTM. JUDGING PER THE AREA BUOYS...CWF LOOKS ON TRACK.               
SANTOS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 270725  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1040 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
14Z SFC ANALYS PLACES FRONTAL BNDRY FM WISCONSIN THRU IOWA ROUGHLY              
ALG A LINE FM KLSE-KMIW-KCSQ. SHRA/TSRA DECREASING SOME IN AREAL                
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK ACRS CNTRL IOWA. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD FM ACTVTY            
ENVELOPING MUCH OF CWA. KMDX WSR-88D SHOWS MCV OVR SCNTRL IOWA WITH             
NEW DVLPMNT NR KOTM-KFFL AND OTHER ISOLD DVLPMNT OVR NCNTRL ILLINOIS.           
WL BE SENDING OUT UPDATE SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT CONVECTIVE               
TRENDS. WL LIKELY ADD MENTION OF HVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PW/S AND                  
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT. SVR THREAT LUKS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK WIND              
FIELDS THUS MAIN THREAT WL BE VERY HEAVY RAINS. MAY ALSO MAKE                   
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TONING THEM DOWN A NOTCH DUE TO                 
CLOUDS/PCPN. LTST RUC BRINGS FNT TO NEAR MISSISSIPPI RVR SO WL BRUSH            
UP WNDS AS WELL.                                                                
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
05                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDVN 270808  ia                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
*********************************************************************           
STARTING 15 JULY 1999 AT 9 AM...THE NAME OF THIS PRODUCT WILL                   
CHANGE.                                                                         
OLD NWWS ID   OLD FOS ID     NEW NWWS ID   NEW FOS ID                           
CRWSFDCRW     FXUS71 KRLX    CRWAFDRLX     FXUS61 KRLX                          
*********************************************************************           
SO...HOW IS THE RAIN GOING TO MISS US THIS TIME?  IT DOESNT LOOK                
LIKE IT WILL BUT IT DOES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO.                                
DOUBLE BARREL VORT STRUCTURE NOT RESOLVED ON YESTERDAYS MODELS                  
PICKED UP TODAY WITH ONE VORT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED                
NEAR ELKTON KENTUCKY AND THE OTHER VORT IN NORTHERN INDIANA.  GOT TO            
LOOK AT 12Z RUC AND 12Z ETA TO 24HRS AND THEY TEND TO ELONGATE THE              
SOUTHERN VORT AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. (21-09Z).  THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS EVENT THAN PREVIOUS                 
EVENTS (EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH SURFACE FORCING) IS THAT LOWER            
TO MID 70 SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTING IN AND THERE IS NOT A STRONG         
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO DRY IT OUT.  WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE                
SOUTHWEST.  AND TO HELP OUT...LATEST VISIBLE LOOP IS SHOWING BREAKS             
IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE PVA IN ERN TN.  THIS HEATING SHOULD                  
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO RING OUT SOME GOOD RAINS FROM              
2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FILLED AIR.  WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF              
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THIS.  THERE ARE NO FLOODING                
WORRIES BECAUSE FFG IS MAXED OUT AT 2.3 INCHES IN AN HOUR.  2.3 IN              
AN OUR WOULD CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THAT ABOUT IT IN             
OUR BONE DRY GROUND.                                                            
WRKZFP ALREADY OUT.  ZONES TO FLY SOON.                                         
.CRW...                                                                         
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
.END / DJR                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 271450  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH WESTERN KENTUCKY.           
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED VORT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE            
WITHIN A TROUGH. DEEPER CONVECTION FROM THIS IS POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR         
CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE RUC AND MESOETA SPLIT THE VORT             
RUNNING ONE SECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JKL AND THE OTHER TO THE NORTH.         
THE PRECIPITATION PRINTOUT BY THE NEAR-TERM MODELS REFLECT THIS SPLIT.          
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND NO REAL LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL              
LEAVE HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...HOWEVER...THE SLOW             
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY          
STRONG CELL. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL IN             
HAND. THE ONLY THING I WOULD ADD WILL BE A DEVELOPING MODIFIER.                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AS WELL WITH A RANGE APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE               
BREAKS APPEARING THE IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN.         
WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE AND FOCUS ON TIMING THE                      
PRECIPITATION IN THE NOWS.                                                      
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
GREIF                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 270812  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
BIG QUESTION THIS UPDATE DEALS WITH SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH                   
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. KMQT                
88-D/LDS DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE            
WESTERN CWA.                                                                    
12Z RUC INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH                
SHOWALTER INDICES IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE AND BOUNDARY LAYER LIS OF -2            
TO -4 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. 03Z MESOETA BRINGS CAPES OF UP              
TO 2000 J/KG INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GRB SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR              
MID 80S/UPPER 60S TEMP/DWPT YIELDS A CAPE AROUND 1600 J/KG. AS THE              
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.                                         
WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD                          
FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL CLIMB INTO             
THE MID 80S. THE DAY WILL AGAIN FEEL HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS                       
APPROACHING 70F.                                                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 271522  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
TRICKY FCST THIS AFTERNOON ON A NUMBER OF FRONTS. CLOUDS/TEMPS/PCPN             
ALL ARE IN DOUBT TO SOME DEGREE.                                                
DIFFICULT TO FIND A MODEL TO PUT MUCH CREDENCE IN THIS MRNG. MESO               
LOW LOCATED OVER WRN LK ERIE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY ALL THE MESO                 
MODELS EXCEPT THE RUC. HOWEVER...THE RUC SOLN OF S/WAVE ENERGY MOVG             
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA IS UNACCEPTABLE...WITH THE MESOETA              
SOLN PREFERRED...DRIFTING THE BULK OF S/WAVE ENERGY ACROSS NRN IN               
TOWARD FAR NW OH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
12Z DTX SNDG NOT ESPECIALLY USEFUL AS IT WENT UP INTO A TSRA. NOT               
REAL THRILLED WITH THE MODEL DERIVED SNDGS EITHER. THE MODELS                   
PREDICT WARMING THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TDY...IN THE             
FACE OF ALMOST NIL WAA DUE TO ALMOST NIL WIND ALOFT...AND DEEP                  
(ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WEAK) UVV. ONE WOULD THINK...IF DEEP UPWARD MOTION             
WAS TO OCCUR ALL DAY...LAPSE RATES WUD STEEPEN. MODELS DO NOT CONCUR.           
SO I WL CHUCK THE MODELS ASIDE AND VENTURE OUT ON MY OWN. VSBL SAT              
IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CDY CONDS ACROSS THE CWA. THIN SPOTS ACROSS               
TTF/ADG AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN QUITE A FEW CU DEVELOP. SAME GOES               
FOR THE WRN PART OF THE STATE. THIS SHUD BE THE TREND ALL DAY...SO              
MOSTLY CLOUDY WL BE FINE. WL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A BIT GIVEN THAT                 
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WL BE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME.                            
NONETHELESS...TEMPS WL STILL MAKE 80-85 TDY...AND THAT WL BE ENUF TO            
REFIRE CONVECTION. LOTS AND LOTS OF BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WL AID               
THIS REDEVELOPMENT. SO SCATTERED POPS THRU MID-AFTERNOON TO COVER               
STRAY SHRA...THEN LIKELY TSRA/SHRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                         
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN INSTAB AVBL TDY GIVEN PROBLEMS WITH MODELS               
AND 12Z DTX SNDG. BEST GUESS WUD INDICATE ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVBL AT               
MAX HEATING. WITH ALMOST NO WIND FIELD TO SPEAK OF...A VERY HIGH                
FREEZING LEVEL...AND LIMITED POTL FOR WATER LOADING DUE TO MOIST                
AIRMASS..SVR POTL LOOKS VERY SMALL. HVY RAIN WL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST            
THREAT. COUNTIES THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS MRNG WL BE CLOSELY             
WATCHED (THAT WUD BE OAKLAND/WAYNE/SHIAWASSEE/SAGINAW).                         
THANKS FOR COORD GRR.                                                           
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 270826  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
CHALLENGE TODAY IS POPS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA...                           
500MB FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGE OVER E CONUS AND TROF OVR GREAT               
BASIN. COLD FRONT EXTDS S TO NW WI-SE MN FROM 1003MB SFC LO OVR S               
ONTARIO AT 06Z. IR IMAGERY/88D SHOW CONVECTION ASSOC WITH FRONT                 
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AT 06Z WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. ANOTHER AREA             
OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI AND              
LK MICHIGAN...WITH W EDGE OF SHIELD CLIPPING NEAR LK MI NEAR SHORE.             
THIS AREA OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY SHRTWV ENERGY OVR S              
LK MI...AND UPR LVL DIV IN RRQ OF JET STREAK OVR ONTARIO.                       
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS CWA FROM W TO E TODAY. GIVEN TIMING OF              
PASSAGE...BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVR E CWA. RUCS                
PRS/WND FIELDS DEPICT FRONT FROM MUNISING-IMT BY 18Z WITH BEST LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED E OF FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPR 60S OVR SE               
CWA. ETA/RUC ALSO SHOWING 850 THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO                         
MNM-ESC...INCREASING SFC CONV AND BNDRY LYR LI'S IN -3 TO -5C. ETA'S            
POS BOUY ENERGY'S OF 1600J/KG BETWEEN 18-21Z. SOLAR HEATING ONLY TO             
BE LIMITED MARGINALLY BY HI CLOUDS. WBZ PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 9K-10K              
FT BY ETA...SUGGESTING HAIL A THREAT WITH ANY TSRA THAT DO DEVELOP.             
JET DYNAMICS ALSO COME INTO PLAY AS 100KT JET STREAK POSTIONS E CWA             
IN RRQ BY 21Z. GIVEN LOCATION OF PARAMETERS HIGHEST THREAT FOR                  
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR TSRA WILL BE MNM-ESC.                                       
COLD FRONT EXITS CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWV EJECTS FROM                  
ROCKIES AND APPROACHES CWA DURING MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE IN                    
DISAGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC                   
REFLECTION WITH AVN/NGM DEVELOPING EJECTING LO THAT RIDES NE ON OLD             
FRONTAL BDRY...DEEPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH E LKS INTO CANADA. ETA               
CONTINUES TO OFFER MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION...AND IS PREFERED BY NCEP.              
GIVEN SUPPORT OF STONGER SOLN BY ECMWF...AM NOT WILLING TO TOTALLY              
DISCARD AVN/NGM. WILL RETAIN SHRA ON MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVR CWA               
TUESDAY...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGING NEXT                 
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH RETURN FLOW OFF GULF BY LATE WEDESDAY/THURS.           
.MQT..NONE.                                                                     
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 270809  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1015 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
HAVE UPDATED TO END PRECIPITATION IN ALL BUT S CENTRAL MN AND W                 
CENTRAL WI.  12Z CONSTANT PRESSURE ANALYSIS HAS DRY AIR PUSHING INTO            
NRN AND W CENTRAL MN. LATEST RUC MODEL ALSO DRIES OUT WITH                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENING AND NOT SATURATING.  TEMPERATURES TRICKY              
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH              
TO KEEP COOLER HIGHS IN W CENTRAL.                                              
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 270847  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1001 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                     
09Z RUC SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE WEAKENING AS MOVES INTO THE CWA AND ANOTHER        
ONE TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS              
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE IN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH TEMPS IN        
THE UPPER 80S. THIS STILL LOOK OKAY. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S EVEN            
WITH CLOUDY SKIES.                                                              
NO CHANGES PLANNED.                                                             
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 271351  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD COORDINATION SECTION                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
939 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
EARLY VISIBILE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN EASTERN MOST                  
CWFA...BUT CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION. VORTICITY                
CENTER AND SHORTWAVE SHOW UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR LOOP CHARGING                  
STEADILY EASTBOUND TOWARD OUR REGION...AND RESPONSE TO LOW LVL VORT             
APPEARS NICELY ON VISIBILE IMAGE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN               
ALABAMA. KGSP 88-D SHOWS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION ERODING AS IT                
MOVES INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT KFFC 88-D SHOWS LINE OF                 
CONVECTION MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. WOULD                   
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON             
AS SHORTWAVE NEARS AND DAYTIME HEATING MAXIMIZES INSTABILITY. 09Z               
RUC SUGSTS ONE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTR CONVERGENCE IN UPSTATE/SOUTHERN            
NC THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR APPROACHES EAST GEORGIA IN ASSN WITH                
SHORTWAVE. PLAN TO CONTINUE CURNT ADVERTISED HIGH POPS.                         
AREA SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ON ORDER             
OF 1.9 INCHES. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...ARE SOME FASTER             
WINDS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE CELLS FROM LINGERING OVER ONE               
AREA FOR TOO LONG...AS HAPPENED ON SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA            
AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ENTERTAINED THOUGHTS OF FLASH              
FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA; ONE ROAD WAS UNDER WATER FOR A               
BRIEF TIME ON SATURDAY JUST EAST OF CLARKESVILLE. FLASH FLOOD                   
GUIDANCE WILL NO DOUBT BE LOWER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY ACROSS THIS               
REGION; TOCCOA CAME IN WITH 2.1 INCHES PAST 24-HRS...BUT EXPECT                 
CONVECTION TO MOVE RIGHT ON ALONG TODAY IN FASTER FLOW SO WILL HOLD             
OFF ON FFA FOR NOW BUT MONITOR CLOSELY DURING THE DAY.                          
TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL AHEAD OF YESTERDAY/S READINGS AT THIS SAME            
TIME IN NORTH CAROLINA; CONCORD ALREAD 81 AND LINCONTON AT 79. MAY              
OPEN UP RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IN NC ZONES BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT                  
ANTICIPATE MANY CHANGES IN THIS REGARD.                                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 271340  sc                                      

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
930 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
QUICK LOOK AT MORNING ANALYSIS AND 12Z RUC INDICATE UPR RIDGE                   
DOMINATING TODAY.  DRT CAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENT RIDGE.  ACTIVE SEA                
BREEZE INDICATED BY RUC CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION            
IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  MAX TEMPS CENTRAL ZONES WILL STRUGGLE                   
AGAINST RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ALTHO A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF 15KT WINDS              
WILL NULLIFY THIS CONSTRAINT.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND             
AND NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED.                                                      
.SAT...NONE.                                                                    
10/01                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 271413  tx                                      

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
308 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
FAIRLY DECENT EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS             
TIME....WITH PLENTY OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EVERYWHERE.  LAPS DATA              
SHOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVER US...WITH THE BEST                 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PILING UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE.             
RADAR SHOWING SOME A DECENT BOUNDARY NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS DOUGLAS                 
COUNTY AND AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE HINTING AT A DENVER CYCLONE SETTING            
UP.  SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST             
CORNER OF THE PLAINS...AND SOMETHING ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE...WITH            
ONLY MINIMAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME OVER THE CWA.  SOME               
CONVECTION GOING NORTH OF THE BORDER IN WYOMING AND NEBRASKA...BUT              
NONE YET HERE.  TROUBLE IS...NOT ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH YET TO BREAK               
THE INVERSIONS ABOVE US.  LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING                  
STRONG 700 MB CAP OVER THE AREA...AND A LITTLE ONE AT ABOUT 450 MB.             
THE CAP WILL BE HARD TO GO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF IT CAN                 
...LAPS SHOWING SOME 2000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE TO WORK WITH RIGHT                
ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.  WATER VAPOR PICTURES STILL              
SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL UPSTREAM...WITH THE RUC/MESOETA              
GETTING THEIR Q-G ASCENT/THERMAL TROUGH INTO HERE AFTER 00Z.  80-100            
KNOT JET NOW IN THE AREA AS EVIDENT BY PROFILERS AND RAWS MOUNTAIN              
WIND SENSORS.  THIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  I STILL THINK            
WE'LL GET THE STORMS...SOME SEVERE TOO.                                         
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW              
ALOFT IS PROGGED...WITH THE DIV-Q/POTENTIAL VORTICITY/UPPER WIND                
GRIDS SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM TIME TO TIME.             
WATER VAPOR PICTURE PROGS WOULD BE NICE FOR LOCATING THESE                      
FEATURES.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/WIND/MOISTURE GRIDS KEEP SHOWING              
SURGES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE NEXT ONE IN HERE AROUND 18Z            
MONDAY NOONTIME...THEN ANOTHER IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.               
THEY ALSO KEEP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                      
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND DECENT THETA-E AXES AT MANY LEVELS.                 
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GREAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS WELL AND MODIFIED            
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING 2000 J/KG PLUS CAPES FOR THE PLAINS BOTH              
DAYS.  THE WIND PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR FOR STORMS TUESDAY                     
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW)...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE               
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP BELOW 500             
MB BOTH AFTERNOONS...BUT SOME 500/400 MB CAPPING INDICATED IN THE               
TEMPERATURE GRIDS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  WITH ALL               
THE MOISTURE EXPECTED...EASTERLY FLOW...AND LATE EVENING MCS'S TO               
CONTEND WITH...MORNING STRATUS IS A GOOD BET AS WELL.  BASICALLY IT             
WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR                  
SEVERE WEATHER BUT TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE MID LEVEL CAP SITUATION             
... THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION OR NOT...AND ANY HELP FROM A                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM OR NOT.  RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH                
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS...MORE ON TUESDAY...AND MORNING                   
STRATUS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMS FOR               
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.                                                              
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LAST 4 OR 5 MRF RUNS HAVE ALL SHOWN A             
DECENT UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO AROUND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE                
LATEST RUN (06/27 00Z) NOW JUST INDICATES PRETTY DECENT WEST-                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...NO TROUGH ANYMORE?  ANYWAY...THIS WEST-                  
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COUPLE             
OF SURGES OF UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE.  WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW                   
USUALLY HAVING PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN IT...AND             
THE GRIDS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WILL KEEP               
"CHANCE" IN ALL THREE DAYS.     RJK                                             
.DEN...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGJT 272036  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  ...CORRECT TEMP CODING...                  
210 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
IR SAT LOOP SHOWS MASSIVE MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN SW NE LAST NIGHT HAS            
NOW DISSIPATED. THIS COMPLEX LEFT BEHIND SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED           
VORTS AND BOUNDARIES WITH CONVECTION FIRING UPON THESE FEATURES THIS            
AFTERNOON. ONE VORT IN CRL IA FCST BEST BY ETA...ONE IN CRL MO (15Z RUC         
PICKED THIS OUT) AND ONE IVOF MCI. NO MODELS YET CAUGHT ONTO THIS. NO           
PCPN ATTM ACRS ILX CWA BUT ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE PCPN RETURNS TO         
FCST AS SFC COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD AND THRU IL OVR NEXT 30 HRS.                
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS PCPN TRENDS.                                             
KILX 88D SHOWING CONVECTION JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 18Z...            
THIS FIRING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FM LAST NIGHT\S MCS. ANY EWRD PROGRESS          
OF STORMS SHLD SEE DIMINISHING TRENDS AS THEY BUMP INTO WEAK RIDGING            
OVR IL. THIS WL KEEP DRY FCST GOING TODAY. TONIGHT A DIFFERENT STORY AS         
TODAY\S CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS MOVE INTO IL. ETA FCSTS IA VORT TO           
TRACK INTO NRN IL BETWEEN 00-06Z. ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW GREAT                   
CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY. NGM/AVN BOTH TRY TO          
DEEPEN UPR TROF TOO MUCH INTO SRN RIDGE.                                        
RUC SHOWING VORT ATTM IN CRL MO TRACKING MORE SE WITH MEAN FLOW AND             
SHLD NOT AFFECT IL WX. HOWEVER...VORT NEAR KANSAS CITY WL FOLLOW MORE           
E-ESE TRACK AND WL PROBABLY MOVE INTO SRN IL THIS EVE. ETA PICKED UP ON         
THIS FEATURE ON YESTERDAY\S 12Z RUN.                                            
WITH BEST DYNAMICS STAYING N AND S OF ILX CWA TONIGHT...BEST PCPN               
CHANCES WL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA ON MON. WITH ACTIVE VORTS IN MO AND             
IA...WL PUT HIGHEST POPS ACRS SERN AND NRN ILX CWA TONIGHT. 50 POPS             
THERE WITH 40S ELSWHERE. ETA SHOWS FROPA AT ILX AROUND 18Z MON. TOO             
CLOSE TO CALL ON TIMING WITH ENDING PCPN...SO WL GO LIKELY POPS TMRW CWA        
WIDE AND TIME CLEARING NW-SE MON NIGHT. MUCH COOLER/LESS HUMID WX TO            
FOLLOW TUE ON BACK-SIDE OF COLD FRONT.                                          
MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT FARTHER S AND E...IN KS.             
MCV FM THIS FCST TO PUSH INTO SRN IL AND ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES AND HOLD          
FRONT BACK MORE IN SRN IL. THERE4 WL INTRO HVY PCPN WORDING THERE.              
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS FCST...WL GO WITH HIGHER           
FWC TONIGHT...AND SIDE WITH MUCH COOLER FAN TMRW.                               
PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS                                                          
SPI TB 070/079 061/078 059 81462                                                
PIA TB 069/077 059/075 057 81561                                                
DEC TB 069/080 060/076 058 81462                                                
CMI TB 069/080 061/075 059 81462                                                
MTO TB 071/082 062/076 060 81573                                                
LWV TB 072/083 064/078 061 81573                                                
PLAHMER                                                                         
EFFECTIVE AT 4 AM CDT JUL 7 1999...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED UNDER            
THE FOLLOWING HEADERS:                                                          
NOAA WEATHER WIRE:    CHIAFDILX                                                 
FAMILY OF SERVICES:   FXUS63 KILX (NO CHANGE FROM CURRENT)                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 271849  il                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
300 PM EST SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
TIMING OF PCPN IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AND WITH ONLY WEAK SFC              
FEATURES TO KEY ON THIS WILL BE NO EASY TASK. 18Z SFC MAP SHOWED A              
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AMS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.  A WEAK SFC             
AND UPR TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN INDIANA WITH A WEAK SFC RDG OVER IL.            
FARTHER WEST THE REMAINS OF A LARGE MCS WAS OVER CENTRAL MO AND NE              
KS. MODELS BRING THE WEAK SFC RDG ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. HOWEVER               
THERE IS SOME HINT FROM NGM/AVN AND 18Z RUC THAT PCPN WEST OF THE MIS           
RIVER COULD AFFECT SW PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.               
THE ORIENTATION OF THICKNESS LINES AND A 35 KNOT 850 JET OVER MO                
WOULD FAVOR ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE MIS RIVER MOVG ESE TOWARDS THE           
LOWER OH VLY.                                                                   
MODELS BRING A S/W TROUGH ACROSS INDIANA ON MONDAY. I PREFER THE                
SLOWER ETA/AVN WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS INDIANA LATER DURING THE DAY.             
THERE IS ALSO DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH OF A DVLPG SFC LOW WHICH            
MOVS NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 48 HOURS. FOR THIS TIME OF              
YEAR THE WEAKER ETA SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. AFTER THE LOW               
MOVS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALL MODELS PULL THE CD FNT SOUTH ACROSS THE           
STATE.                                                                          
OVERALL FWC TEMPS HAVE BEEN DOING PRETTY GOOD LATELY AND WILL GO                
PRETTY CLOSE TO THEIR NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND ALSO ON TUE.           
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES           
AS EVENING CONVECTION AND COOLER AIR MOVG IN MAY BRING TEMPS DOWN A             
LITTLE MORE.                                                                    
.IND...NONE.                                                                    
HENDRICKSON                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 271830  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
954 AM EST SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
SVRL PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PM INCLUDING LEFT OVR POP... TEMPS              
AND CLDS. 14Z OBS AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE DEEP LYR MOISTURE STILL IN             
PLACE ACRS FA THIS AM. SW TROF BISECTING FA ATTM WITH MAIN AREA OF              
SYNOPTIC FORCING SHIFTING INTO NW OHIO. SOME NEW SHRA DVLPMNT                   
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS BRANCH COUNTY AND BACK SW NR LAF.                  
WITH ALL LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH SUN                
GIVEN STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WITH DIURNAL HEATING TDA. VIS              
SAT CONFIRMS THIS WITH ALOT OF CU FILLING IN BEHIND SW TROF BACK                
INTO IL. WILL THEREFORE TRIM BACK ON MAX TEMPS AND TAKE MORE                    
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CLD CVR THIS PM. POPS STILL LOOK GOOD IN                
ABSENCE OF CLR CUT LOW LVL FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT MODIFIED 12Z                  
RAOBS AND 03Z/12Z ETA/RUC FCST SNDGS PUT CAPES TO 2K J/KG AND LI TO             
-6 SO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY THIS PM TO REFIRE THINGS. WITH LWR                  
TROP FLOW SO WK WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HVY RA THREAT AS SVR CHANCES             
NIL.                                                                            
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 270827  in                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO             
EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. THIS DRIER AIR IS SUPPRESSING            
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE RUC                   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PENETRATING ACROSS               
THE FA BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID DIMINISHING OF                     
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET WEST OF INTERSTATE 55             
EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS      
AFTERNOON IS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 BUT EVEN THIS ACTIVITY                
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...IN EXTREME NORTHERN              
MISSISSIPPI...OUTFLOW FROM MCS THAT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD                 
MISSISSIPPI MAY HELP TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN              
EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF FA THIS EVENING. ON MONDAY...DRIER AIR AT MID         
LEVELS WILL AFFECT ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY                     
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS FA. ON TUESDAY...NGM AND AVN BRING COLD FRONT             
INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...BUT ETA KEEPS BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE MS              
BORDER. I WILL GO WITH ETA FORECAST AND INCREASE POPS IN EXTREME                
NORTHERN MS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                     
ELSEWHERE IN THE FA...EXPECT POPS TO BE ISOLATED.                               
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NGM MOS ON MONDAY            
AND TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE              
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPS SHOULD WARM             
INTO THE 90S...BUT WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH                   
PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF FLORIDA COAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN              
PLAINS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THE AIR              
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 90S IN MOST              
LOCATIONS. FOR LOW TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO NGM MOS.                          
IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT FRONT ALONG NORTHERN MS BORDER TO MOVE BACK            
NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN              
WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE USUAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY                 
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH                    
SEASONAL HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                   
QPF DISCUSSION: AIR MASS STILL MOIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE                 
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE WEST WILL KEEP CONVECTION MINIMAL                  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE            
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 6              
HOURS. WILL GO WITH AMOUNTS OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH THERE AND LESSER                
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.                                                              
.JAN...                                                                         
 MS...NONE.                                                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...NONE.                                                                     
15                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 270856  ms                                      

NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
245 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF GLASGOW              
CWFA. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THRU            
EASTERN PORTION OF MONTANA THRU FCST PERIOD. NONE OF THE MODELS                 
HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE SHWVS. RUC SEEMED TO DO BEST PICKING UP              
ON VORT MAX OVER EASTERN MT THIS AM AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP GOING             
ON ATTM. BROAD UPPER TROF TO LINGER OVER NEMONT THRU MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SUM RIDGING TO TAKE            
PLACE OVER NEMONT MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES DOWN CANADIAN PAC COAST            
BUT UPPER TROF RETURNS BY TUES AFTERNOON...NGM AND AVN HITTING                  
RIDGING THE HARDEST AND TRYING TO WARM NEMONT UP A TAD TOO MUCH.                
MODEL QPF'S INDICATING PCPN THRU MUCH OF FCST PERIOD...AVN THE                  
DRIEST. NGM AND ETA MORE IN LINE AND DO EXPECT PCPN TO BE SCT THRU              
MONDAY AFT. TEMPS OVERDONE ON FAN WITH AVN REALLY TRYING TO WARM                
NEMONT UP ON MONDAY. MOS NUMBERS NOT TOO OUT OF WHACK EXCEPT FOR GGW            
WHERE IT MAY BE TOO WARM. WILL KEEP POPS SCT THRU MONDAY AND BRING              
POPS BACK IN TUESDAY AS NEXT TROF APPROACHES AREA.                              
EXTENDED...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND            
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO                 
CONTINUE. KPB                                                                   
GGW 6323 046/072/049/070                                                        
GDV 6423 048/073/050/071                                                        
CCF                                                                             
GGW WB 046/072 049/070 050 75632                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 272047  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
955 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
ABUNDANT SUN ALLOWING MOST OF ILM CWA TO WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING.             
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ENCROACHING CLOUDS FROM SW AND CU ALREADY                     
DEVELOPING. A PARTLY SUNNY FCST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR REMAINDER OF               
THE DAY. 12Z CHS SOUNDING INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ALREADY IN                 
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. UNMODIFIED...THE SOUNDING YIELDS            
A -4 LI...CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND A K-INDEX OF 35. MODIFIED            
TO AN AFTN HIGH NEAR 90...THE LI DROPS TO -7 AND CAPE INCREASES TO              
NEARLY 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS             
WOULD DEFINITELY BE SUPPORTED. LATEST RUC INDICATES MAIN H5 S/WV TO             
STILL BE IN W TN AND GA THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH A WEAKER FORERUNNING                 
RIPPLE COULD ENTER THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE AFTN ALONG WITH AFTN MAX             
TEMPS. AND AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG SEA BREEZE-               
TYPE BOUNDARY. SEE NO NEED TO LOWER POPS. AS A MATTER OF FACT...ANY             
OTHER DAY THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE RAISED. BUT GIVEN THE OVER-                    
ADVERTISEMENT OF POPS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS I WON'T GO THAT ROUTE JUST            
YET. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...MORNING SOUNDINGS               
AND LOCAL TEMP SCHEMES SEEM TO INDICATE THAT CURRENT FCST IS ON                 
TRACK. TO SUM IT UP...NO CHANGES PLANNED.                                       
CWF: 12Z RUC SHOWS 20-25 KT WIND MAX AT 925 MB APPROACHING FROM THE             
SW SO SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTN. CURRENT FCST SPEEDS LOOK             
GOOD BUT WILL ADD AN INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THE MEANTIME.                       
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
MORGAN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 270655  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
928 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ALL ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT WIND AND CLOUD                
TRENDS ACROSS THE FA.  INSOLATION IS RESULTING IN MIXING OF HIGH                
MOMENTUM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT LLJ PER AREA               
PROFILERS/88D VAD WINDS.  12Z RUC IS INDICATING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT               
925 AND 850 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SO BASED            
ON CURRENT TRENDS..I SEE NO REASON WHY WINDS WILL NOT REMAIN AOA                
CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER..               
HIGHEST GUSTS SHUD BE FROM NOW THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME               
DECREASE IN SPEEDS THEREAFTER AS LLJ WEAKENS.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE             
ALSO MOVING INTO THE FA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PLUME OF STEEPER MID                
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SEEN ON 12 UA ANAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS               
ATTM.                                                                           
 MILLER                                                                         
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES NORTH OF A HOLLIS-FREDERICK-WEWOKA LINE.             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KTSA 270908  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
LOUSY PERFORMANCE OF 00Z MODELS SPELLS JOB SECURITY TO ME. NONE OF              
THE MDLS EXCEPT THE RUC BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY IN              
THE CWA EARLY ENOUGH. MDLS OF 24 HRS AGO DID A BETTER JOB THAN THIS             
NEWEST GENERATION. DONT BELIEVE ME...EVEN THE 05Z HON LAMP MOS                  
COULDN'T FCST THE 05Z TSTMS THAT WERE IN THE SFC OBSERVATION.                   
OVERALL I DO NOT LIKE ANY OF THE MDL SOLNS AND THIS MORNINGS FCST               
PKG WL UNFORTUNELY COMBINE ALL 3 SOLNS INTO THE FCST AND BROAD BRUSH            
THE FCST. WHEN NECESSARY...FOLLOWED NGM SOLN SINCE YESTERDAY'S 00Z              
RUN WAS CLOSEST IN PROGGING THIS EARLY MRNGS SYSTEM. MDLS HAVING A              
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHRTWVS TO MOVE ACROSS THE             
NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TDY THROUGH MON AS ROCKIES TROF IS SQUEEZED OUT            
BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN WRN CONUS. ETA THE QUICKEST TO FILL IN TROF              
THUS PROVIDES THE LEAST MID TO UPPER LVL SUPPORT FOR PCPN                       
DEVELOPMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NGM AND EVEN AVN. NGM/AVN ALSO                 
PLACE SFC LOW FURTHER N THAN ETA THEN SLOWLY MOVES SFC LOW AND                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ENE THROUGH THE PKG. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE                   
SIGNIFICANT IN THAT BOTH THE NGM AND AVN INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT              
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT TNGT AND THE ETA PREFERS TO BRING SUBSIDENCE TO            
THE AREA.                                                                       
WHILE MOS/FAN PROVIDE SOME PRETTY HIGH POPS FOR TNGT AND MON IN MUCH            
OF THE CWA...WITH PREVIOUS PKG HAVING 2ND AND 3RD PRDS DRY WL NEED              
TO BE A LITTLE POLITICAL AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE. HOPEFULLY 12Z MDL               
RUNS WL PROVIDE A MORE CONSISTANT SOLNS BETWEEN THE MDLS RUNS AND               
REALITY TO HELP WITH THE AFTN PKG.  ALL I CAN SAY IS...GOOD LUCK...             
OZFFSD ALREADY SENT BUT WL PROBABLY MAKE A FEW MORE CHANGES FOR                 
FINAL PRODUCT.                                                                  
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
BR                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 270859  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 1999                                                      
27/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH            
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE...            
AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERN LIMIT OF KMRX-88D REFLECTIVITIES             
SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...                   
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE FROM KHTX-88D. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT           
IN CONTINUING A RATHER WEST PATTERN...WITH THE 12Z UPSTREAM MOISTURE            
PROFILE FROM BNA/S SOUNDING MORE MOIST YET.                                     
THE MAJOR FORECAST DILEMMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS PREDICTING HOW MUCH            
RAIN WILL FALL? LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT              
THE 09Z RUC HANDLED THE 12Z LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE DISTRIBUTION                 
BEST. CONSIDERING THAT AN H5 S/W SYSTEM IS OVER THE SURFACE LOW                 
(SIMILARLY FEATURED IN THE 03Z MESOETA) WITH UVV/S IN THE MESOETA...            
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...            
UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF SOME WESTERN CWA LOCATIONS. MAY                 
TWEAK TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.                                      
DM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 270736  tn