####018004738####
FXUS61 KCTP 121649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY GUSTY...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS AND STEADY OR DROPPING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND HELP CALM THE WINDS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE FAST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR COLD RAIN ON
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW ARE LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LEAVING PA
IN GUSTY POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FCST FACTOR INTO THE EARLY AFTN. OVERALL
WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...BUT WITH
REPORTED RECENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH /NEAR 50 HERE AT THE
OFFICE/ AND IN EXCESS OF 50MPH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE...AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTN.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTN. ONLY THE SE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COULD ESCAPE THE NEG
TREND. BUT THEY WILL ALSO HAVE THE WORST TIME WITH THE WINDS - AS
THEY COULD TAP THE 65+KT WINDS UP AROUND 8H DEPENDING ON JUST HOW
DEEPLY THEY CAN MIX.

PER LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES FROM MESO MDLS...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE
SNOW OVER THE NW HALF THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE MILD
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A MIX OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES IN THE CENTRAL
MTS. LITTLE/NO ACCUMS SHOULD OCCUR...UNTIL SUNSET. THE WRAP AROUND
AND UPSLOPE OVER THE NW COULD GET SOME BOOST OF INSTABILITY AND
MSTR FROM THE LAKE...BUT VERY LITTLE. THE MAIN THING WILL BE THE
CHANGE IN TEMPS AFTER SUNSET TO BELOW FREEZING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE SNOW TO START STICKING BETTER. WILL PUT 1-3 INCH ACCUMS IN
THE NW...WITH LESS OVER THE LAURELS AND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH FLURRIES AND SCT SHSN LEFT OVER
IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING. WILL FINALLY GET BACK TO A DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MAXES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD. WENT BELOW GUID MINS BY
A FEW DEGS. 

SATURDAY LOOKED INTERESTING THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...BUT THE GFS IS
NOW DRYING UP THE PRECIP THAT WAS SLATED FOR THE DAYTIME ON SAT.
LATEST 00Z RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP - WHICH WAS MAINLY SNOW -
TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE HELD THE LINE FOR THE MOST PART AND JUST NUDGED
POPS DOWN ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD. TEMPS COULD BE BORDERLINE
FOR SNOW IF IT DOES DECIDE TO PRECIPITATE ANYWAY...SO HAVE
MENTIONED CHC OF RA OR SN IN THE SOUTH. ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT...IF
THEY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FCST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF ALL HINT AT A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT ECOAST STORM SYSTEM NEXT WED/THUR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF TSRA SLAMMED INTO WESTERN PA EARLIER...BEFORE FALLING 
APART AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL PA. BRIEF CLEARING AFTER THAT...
THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RAIN TURNED TO SNOW ACROSS
THE NW. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT MVFR AT TIMES AT ALL 
SITES BUT IPT AND MDT. EVEN IFR AT SPOTS LIKE BFD EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. 

SAT/SUN...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH VFR CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE
SAT THRU SUN. PRECIP ARRIVES SAT EVE AND LINGERS IN VC THRU SUN.
TEMPS BORDERLINE FOR SNOW.

MON...BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL EARLY ON AT SPOTS LIKE BFD AND JST
AND THE FAR EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOTH IPT AND MDT MAX RECORDS WERE BROKEN WED AFTN. LA NINA STRIKES
AGAIN.

RECORD REPORTS SENT. FOR IPT...60 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 55 SET IN 1960. FOR MDT...63 DEGREES BROKE THE
OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1999.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-
037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004-005-
010-017>019-024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEACHLER/MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO/MARTIN



####018003778####
FXUS63 KBIS 121650
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1050 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009

.UPDATE...

CLEARING SKIES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WARRANT A DECREASE IN
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER GRIDS.
MEANWHILE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A BAND OF STRATUS IS NOW MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE STATE AND WILLISTON
AND ESTEVAN CANADA ARE REPORTING FLURRIES. WILL ADD SCATTERED
FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. VAD WINDS FROM MINOT AND BISMARCK RADARS INDICATE 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS ABOVE 2 THOUSAND FT AGL. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
ARE IN LINE WITH VAD WINDS AND THE NAM DROPS THE WINDS OFF BY LATE 
MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE NAM...WITH 
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...DROPPING OFF BY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...
SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL AS INDICATE BY
THICKNESSES BELOW 522 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE SUB
ZERO MORNING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS. 

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN PROBLEM IN THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES. WE START THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD OFF WITH A FLAT ZONAL FLOW OVER 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN 
DAKOTAS...NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA UNDER A CLOSED UPPER LOW. 

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD 
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST PUSHES 
ONSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE 
COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA BUT WILL NOT 
REINTRODUCE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE 
WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 
ALTHOUGH MOST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THERE 
IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SKIRTS THE AREA. WE 
CURRENTLY ARE CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS NOW. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST 
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A TIGHTER THERMAL 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM PUSH THIS GRADIENT 
FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...MADE FEW CHANGES HERE AS A GFS SOLUTION 
WOULD BE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF OR GLOBAL GEM. WILL STICK WITH A 
BLEND HERE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...UNTIL MODELS 
DEPICT A BETTER CONSENSUS.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDINESS WITH SOME FLURRIES IS PUSHING SOUTH 
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS 
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. BY TAF ISSUANCE...THIS BAND SHOULD 
HAVE MOVED INTO BIS AND WILL MOVE TO JMS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE 
BAND LOOKS LIKE IT MAY JUST CLIP DIK AS WELL. PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE 
TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF MVFR CLOUDINESS WITH THIS CLOUD 
DECK DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH 
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS 
EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TSW/TWH/SCHECK


####018004913####
FXUS61 KBUF 121651
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1151 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL 
REACH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE 
REGION BEHIND THIS LOW WILL CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO 
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. RELATIVELY DRY AND 
SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES AT MID DAY WERE STILL MILD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE WEST AND RAIN FROM ROCHESTER EAST, WITH SNOW OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WEST...BUT AS TEMPERATURES COOL IT WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS
FROM ROCHESTER WEST AND UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD APPROACH
WARNING CRITERIA WITH AN ISALLOBARIC PUSH EAST OF ROCHESTER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL CREATE 
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THEREFORE...WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF TOTAL SNOWFALL...EXPECT 
THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. 

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM WEST 
TO EAST AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. COLDER AIR FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
INCREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING DOWN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD END ANY LAKE
SNOWS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE WEATHER. LATEST GFS AND NAM
SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS DIVERGE DURING THE PERIOD, BUT KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK 
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD 
AIR MONDAY AND WE HAVE A CHANCE OF LAKE SNOWS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
THE ECMWF SHOWS A STORM MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY 
WHICH GIVES A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY MOIST AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE 
PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CAUSE CIGS/VSBSY TO LOWER TO 
IFR AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE 
WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL 
SEE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGES TO 
ALL SNOW. 

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE 
COLDER AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF 
OVERNIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. 
SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW. 
SUNDAY...VFR. 
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO IN THE STRONG
GRADIENT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE WHICH AT MID DAY WAS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING. GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&


.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ001-002-010>013-019>021-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR 
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APB/TMA



####018003775####
FXUS65 KTFX 121652
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE. IN THE VALLEYS...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS WIND SHIFT AND
RESULTING UPSLOPING IS ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS SEEMED RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST ALSO SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK. MLS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 12/1420Z. 
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT 
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS 
TO TAKE SHAPE. ALL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT IN INTENSITY 
AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH 
POSSIBLE BRIEF INTRUSIONS INTO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SNOW 
SHOWERS. SUK 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES
OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR IS SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND
WILL COVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE PERIOD KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL AND BELOW NORMAL. AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROF
IS STEERED OVER THE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW...LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
THIS MORNING. LOSS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS OVER WEST COAST AND CENTRAL CANADA LEAVES AREA UNDER SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING PERIOD RIDGE WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SWINGING NORTHWARD FROM PACIFIC UPPER LOW
TEND TO FLATTEN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MONTANA FOR AN EAST OR
NORTHEAST FLOW. WHILE THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH
SO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE SLIGHT. COOLER CANADIAN AIR
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT
STILL NOT COLD BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. BRITTON

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. 
THUS...WILL GO FOR CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WITH A SURFACE HIGH BEING EAST OF MONTANA...WILL GO WITH 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. WILLIAMSON DC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  13  28  11 /  40  60  50  20 
CTB  25  10  21  11 /  40  50  40  20 
HLN  35  18  33  12 /  40  40  30  20 
BZN  32  12  32   5 /  50  40  30  20 
WEY  24  -8  25  -7 /  40  50  20  30 
DLN  30   9  30   8 /  20  20  20  20 
HVR  23   1  19   2 /  10  20  20  20 
LWT  28  10  27   6 /  40  50  40  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


####018003371####
FXUS64 KSJT 121652
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1052 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWING BEGINNING TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW. SFC WINDS WERE
UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO VEER THE DIRECTION TO SOUTHERLY OR JUST WEST
OF SOUTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL
DATA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE
OR TWO THERE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

LACY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WX FCST WAS UPDATED TO TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO EVEN
JUST WEST OF SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST IS ON TRACK AS WE ARE LOOKING FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS BOTH AFTERNOONS DO NOT SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF
ANY FIRE WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
/12Z AVIATION TAF DISCUSSION BELOW/

AVIATION...
LEE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT
KSOA... KJCT... AND KBBD AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AS 35 KT 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGS BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. KEPT KSJT AND KABI
VFR...HOWEVER KSJT WILL BE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY...AS PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STICK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAV NUMBERS. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL.

FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN EACH OF THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG
WARNING EITHER DAY...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND THE
MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING.

LONG TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LARGELY DRY SLOT OUR AREA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES. COLD FRONTS FOLLOW
THE WAVES...WITH THE FIRST IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 74  50  73  32  59 /   0   0   0  10   0 
SAN ANGELO 	 77  49  76  31  67 /   0   0   0  10   0 
JUNCTION 	 77  50  78  36  67 /   0   0  10  10   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

####018002382####
FXUS64 KMEG 121652
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1052 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009


.DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WERE MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION AND WILL
GRADUALLY REACH THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AND NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED. 

CJC


&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING
THAT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY
AND SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AND TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  63  44  65  47 /   0  10  50  70 
MKL  61  37  64  46 /   0  10  40  70 
JBR  60  39  60  42 /   0  10  40  70 
TUP  64  39  63  49 /   0  10  50  70 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


####018003368####
FXUS64 KSJT 121652
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1052 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWING BEGINNING TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW. SFC WINDS WERE
UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO VEER THE DIRECTION TO SOUTHERLY OR JUST WEST
OF SOUTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL
DATA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE
OR TWO THERE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

LACY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WX FCST WAS UPDATED TO TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO EVEN
JUST WEST OF SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST IS ON TRACK AS WE ARE LOOKING FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS BOTH AFTERNOONS DO NOT SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF
ANY FIRE WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
/12Z AVIATION TAF DISCUSSION BELOW/

AVIATION...
LEE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT
KSOA... KJCT... AND KBBD AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AS 35 KT 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGS BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. KEPT KSJT AND KABI
VFR...HOWEVER KSJT WILL BE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY...AS PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STICK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAV NUMBERS. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL.

FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN EACH OF THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG
WARNING EITHER DAY...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND THE
MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING.

LONG TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LARGELY DRY SLOT OUR AREA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES. COLD FRONTS FOLLOW
THE WAVES...WITH THE FIRST IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  74  50  73  32  59 /   0   0   0  10   0 
SAN ANGELO  77  49  76  31  67 /   0   0   0  10   0 
JUNCTION  77  50  78  36  67 /   0   0  10  10   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$